Peltier, Thomas R; Blackley, John A
Managing a Network Vulnerability Assessment provides a formal framework for finding and eliminating network security threats, ensuring that no vulnerabilities are overlooked. This thorough overview focuses on the steps necessary to successfully manage an assessment, including the development of a scope statement, the understanding and proper use of assessment methodology, the creation of an expert assessment team, and the production of a valuable response report. The book also details what commercial, freeware, and shareware tools are available, how they work, and how to use them.
Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant
To help understand a network and its ability to continue operating when under attack, the break out group discussed issues that need to be considered when presenting network vulnerability information...
能島, 暢呂; Nobuoto, NOJIMA; 岐阜大学工学部社会基盤工学科; Department of Civil Engineering, Gifu University
A simple index is proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment of lifeline network facilities. The proposed index, "V-factor," is evaluated using the correction factors representing relative vulnerability corresponding to a variety of pipe diameters, pipe materials, and joint types in statistical models used widely for estimation of number of pipe breaks in the event of earthquakes. Such correction factors are averaged over the entire networks on the basis of extended length of pipelines cla...
Kessel, Adam; Goodwin, Shane
The proliferation of wireless computer equipment and Local Area Networks (LANs) create an increasingly common and growing threat to Marine Corps Network infrastructure and communication security (COMSEC...
Dindar, H.; Dimililer, K.; Özdağ, Ö. C.; Atalar, C.; Akgün, M.; Özyankı, A.
Many scholars have used microtremor applications to evaluate the vulnerability index. In order to reach fast and reliable results, microtremor measurement is preferred as it is a cost-effective method. In this paper, the vulnerability index will be reviewed by utilization of microtremor measurement results in Nicosia city. 100 measurement stations have been used to collect microtremor data and the data were analysed by using Nakamura's method. The value of vulnerability index (Kg) has been evaluated by using the fundamental frequency and amplification factor. The results obtained by the artificial neural network (ANN) will be compared with microtremor measurements. Vulnerability Index Assessment using Neural Networks (VIANN) is a backpropagation neural network, which uses the original input microtremor Horizontal Vertical Spectrum Ratio (HVSR) spectrum set. A 3-layer back propagation neural network which contains 4096 input, 28 hidden and 3 output neurons are used in this suggested system. The output neurons are classified according to acceleration sensitivity zone, velocity zones, or displacement zones. The sites are classified by their vulnerability index values using binary coding: [1 0 0] for the acceleration sensitive zone, [0 1 0] for the velocity sensitive zone, and [0 0 1] for the displacement sensitive zone.
Full Text Available Many scholars have used microtremor applications to evaluate the vulnerability index. In order to reach fast and reliable results, microtremor measurement is preferred as it is a cost-effective method. In this paper, the vulnerability index will be reviewed by utilization of microtremor measurement results in Nicosia city. 100 measurement stations have been used to collect microtremor data and the data were analysed by using Nakamura’s method. The value of vulnerability index (Kg has been evaluated by using the fundamental frequency and amplification factor. The results obtained by the artificial neural network (ANN will be compared with microtremor measurements. Vulnerability Index Assessment using Neural Networks (VIANN is a backpropagation neural network, which uses the original input microtremor Horizontal Vertical Spectrum Ratio (HVSR spectrum set. A 3-layer back propagation neural network which contains 4096 input, 28 hidden and 3 output neurons are used in this suggested system. The output neurons are classified according to acceleration sensitivity zone, velocity zones, or displacement zones. The sites are classified by their vulnerability index values using binary coding: [1 0 0] for the acceleration sensitive zone, [0 1 0] for the velocity sensitive zone, and [0 0 1] for the displacement sensitive zone.
Malliaros, Fragkiskos D.; Vazirgiannis, Michalis
In social networks, new users decide to become members, but also current users depart from the network or stop being active in the activities of their community. The departure of a user may affect the engagement of its neighbors in the graph, that successively may also decide to leave, leading to a disengagement epidemic. We propose a model to capture this cascading effect, based on recent studies about the engagement dynamics of social networks. We introduce a new concept of vulnerability assessment under cascades triggered by the departure of nodes based on their engagement level. Our results indicate that social networks are robust under cascades triggered by randomly selected nodes but highly vulnerable in cascades caused by targeted departures of nodes with high engagement level.
Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.
It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the
Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P
It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the people most at risk from the effects of climate variability and climate change? It is not an easy question to answer. How can we compare the hazards facing the inhabitants of a small island as the sea...
Report #09-P-0227, August 31, 2009. Vulnerability testing conducted in April 2009 of EPA’s Research Triangle Park Finance Center network identified Internet Protocol addresses with several highrisk vulnerabilities.
Havlin, S.; Kenett, D. Y.; Bashan, A.; Gao, J.; Stanley, H. E.
Our dependence on networks - be they infrastructure, economic, social or others - leaves us prone to crises caused by the vulnerabilities of these networks. There is a great need to develop new methods to protect infrastructure networks and prevent cascade of failures (especially in cases of coupled networks). Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How, and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against malicious attacks? The gradual increase in attacks on the networks society depends on - Internet, mobile phone, transportation, air travel, banking, etc. - emphasize the need to develop new strategies to protect and defend these crucial networks of communication and infrastructure networks. One example is the threat of liquid explosives a few years ago, which completely shut down air travel for days, and has created extreme changes in regulations. Such threats and dangers warrant the need for new tools and strategies to defend critical infrastructure. In this paper we review recent advances in the theoretical understanding of the vulnerabilities of interdependent networks with and without spatial embedding, attack strategies and their affect on such networks of networks as well as recently developed strategies to optimize and repair failures caused by such attacks.
Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea
Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial
Optimization of DRASTIC method by artificial neural network, nitrate vulnerability index, and composite DRASTIC models to assess groundwater vulnerability for unconfined aquifer of Shiraz Plain, Iran.
Baghapour, Mohammad Ali; Fadaei Nobandegani, Amir; Talebbeydokhti, Nasser; Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Chitsazan, Nima
Extensive human activities and unplanned land uses have put groundwater resources of Shiraz plain at a high risk of nitrate pollution, causing several environmental and human health issues. To address these issues, water resources managers utilize groundwater vulnerability assessment and determination of protection. This study aimed to prepare the vulnerability maps of Shiraz aquifer by using Composite DRASTIC index, Nitrate Vulnerability index, and artificial neural network and also to compare their efficiency. The parameters of the indexes that were employed in this study are: depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, and land use. These parameters were rated, weighted, and integrated using GIS, and then, used to develop the risk maps of Shiraz aquifer. The results indicated that the southeastern part of the aquifer was at the highest potential risk. Given the distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations from the wells in the underlying aquifer, the artificial neural network model offered greater accuracy compared to the other two indexes. The study concluded that the artificial neural network model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC index and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk. As intensive agricultural activities are the dominant land use and water table is shallow in the vulnerable zones, optimized irrigation techniques and a lower rate of fertilizers are suggested. The findings of our study could be used as a scientific basis in future for sustainable groundwater management in Shiraz plain.
Zhao, Jensen J.; Truell, Allen D.; Alexander, Melody W.; Woosley, Sherry A.
Objective: This study assessed the security vulnerability of the U.S. small companies' business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce network systems. Background: As the Internet technologies have been changing the way business is conducted, the U.S. small businesses are investing in such technologies and taking advantage of e-commerce to access global…
Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population) and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area), is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006). Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.
The objective function in (25) aims to minimize the number of people waiting to be evacuated in the transportation network, either waiting in one of...Assessments of Dynamic Networks Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. July...telecommunications, transportation , and electricity grids. More importantly, we analyze network dynamics that include cascading failures due to
Report #11-P-0429, August 3, 2011. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s NHEERL Western Ecology Division network conducted in March 2011 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.
Hindhede, Anette Lykke; Aagaard-Hansen, Jens
within communities. The concept of community reflects the idea that people’s behavior and well-being are influenced by interaction with others, and here, health promotion requires participation and local leadership to facilitate transmission and uptake of interventions for the overall community......This paper provides an example of the application of Social Network Analysis (SNA) method to assess community participation thereby strengthening planning and implementation of health promotion programming. Community health promotion often takes the form of services that reach out to or are located...... to achieve social change. However, considerable uncertainty exists over exact levels of participation in these interventions. The paper draws on a mixed methods research within a community development project in a vulnerable neighborhood of a town in Denmark. It presents a detailed analysis of the way...
Hindhede, Anette Lykke; Aagaard-Hansen, Jens
This article provides an example of the application of social network analysis method to assess community participation thereby strengthening planning and implementation of health promotion programming. Community health promotion often takes the form of services that reach out to or are located within communities. The concept of community reflects the idea that people's behavior and well-being are influenced by interaction with others, and here, health promotion requires participation and local leadership to facilitate transmission and uptake of interventions for the overall community to achieve social change. However, considerable uncertainty exists over exact levels of participation in these interventions. The article draws on a mixed methods research within a community development project in a vulnerable neighborhood of a town in Denmark. It presents a detailed analysis of the way in which social network analysis can be used as a tool to display participation and nonparticipation in community development and health promotion activities, to help identify capacities and assets, mobilize resources, and finally to evaluate the achievements. The article concludes that identification of interpersonal ties among people who know one another well as well as more tenuous relationships in networks can be used by community development workers to foster greater cohesion and cooperation within an area.
Prevención de Incendio, Protección Ambiental y Seguridad Industrial SEGUR-Fire 2001, Caracas, Venezuela, July 2001. 3 Figure 1. Pipeline Safety...become the weapon of choice for international terrorists, irrespective of the political and social -financial conditions of the society under attack.64...on networks in which the link or nodes are tangible or intangible; thus, its applications range from the analysis of aqueduct systems to social
Full Text Available on the potential loss of natural habitat due to habitat transformation and degradation processes, which will threaten the biodiversity of the area. In this assessment, two classes of vulnerability are referred to as land use vulnerability and degradation...
Full Text Available Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area, is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006. Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.
Betts, A. R.; Gharabaghi, B.; McBean, E. A.
De-icing agents such as road salts while used for winter road maintenance can cause negative effects on urban stream water quality and drinking water supplies. A new methodology using readily available spatial data to identify Salt Vulnerable Areas (SVAs) for urban streams is used to prioritize implementation of best management practices. The methodology calculates the probable chloride concentration statistics at specified points in the urban stream network and compares the results with known aquatic species exposure tolerance limits to characterize the vulnerability scores. The approach prioritizes implementation of best management practices to areas identified as vulnerable to road salt. The vulnerability assessment is performed on seven sites in four watersheds in the Greater Toronto Area and validated using the Hanlon Creek watershed in Guelph. The mean annual in-stream chloride concentration equation uses readily available spatial data - with province-wide coverage - that can be easily used in any urban watershed.
Disruptions in the transport system can have severe impacts for affected individuals, businesses and the society as a whole. In this research, vulnerability is seen as the risk of unplanned system disruptions, with a focus on large, rare events. Vulnerability analysis aims to provide decision support regarding preventive and restorative actions, ideally as an integrated part of the planning process.The thesis specifically develops the methodology for vulnerability analysis of road networks an...
Jun-qiang, Leng; Long-hai, Yang; Liu, Wei-yi; Zhao, Lin
This paper focuses on the development of a method for road network vulnerability analysis, from the perspective of capacity degradation, which seeks to identify the critical infrastructures in the road network and the operational performance of the whole traffic system. This research involves defining the traffic utility index and modeling vulnerability of road segment, route, OD (Origin Destination) pair and road network. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis method is utilized to calculate the change of traffic utility index due to capacity degradation. This method, compared to traditional traffic assignment, can improve calculation efficiency and make the application of vulnerability analysis to large actual road network possible. Finally, all the above models and calculation method is applied to actual road network evaluation to verify its efficiency and utility. This approach can be used as a decision-supporting tool for evaluating the performance of road network and identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management, especially in the resource allocation for mitigation and recovery. PMID:28125706
Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.
Swiler, Laura Painton [Albuquerque, NM; Phillips, Cynthia A [Albuquerque, NM
A computer system analysis tool and method that will allow for qualitative and quantitative assessment of security attributes and vulnerabilities in systems including computer networks. The invention is based on generation of attack graphs wherein each node represents a possible attack state and each edge represents a change in state caused by a single action taken by an attacker or unwitting assistant. Edges are weighted using metrics such as attacker effort, likelihood of attack success, or time to succeed. Generation of an attack graph is accomplished by matching information about attack requirements (specified in "attack templates") to information about computer system configuration (contained in a configuration file that can be updated to reflect system changes occurring during the course of an attack) and assumed attacker capabilities (reflected in "attacker profiles"). High risk attack paths, which correspond to those considered suited to application of attack countermeasures given limited resources for applying countermeasures, are identified by finding "epsilon optimal paths."
At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...
The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...
Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.
Hennessey, Brian; Norman, Bradley; Wesson, Robert B.
This paper discusses simulation technologies developed to "stimulate" an operational command and control security system. The paper discusses simulation techniques used to create a virtual model of a facility in which to conduct vulnerability assessment exercises, performance benchmarking, CONOPS development and operator training. The paper discusses the specific techniques used for creating a 3d virtual environment and simulating streaming IP surveillance cameras and motion detection sensors. In addition the paper discusses advanced scenario creation techniques and the modeling of scenario entities, including vehicles, aircraft and personnel. The paper draws parallels with lessons learned in using Air Traffic Control simulators for operator training, incident recreation, procedure development and pre acquisition planning and testing.
Full Text Available This paper elaborates on a novel approach at preventing exploits from vulnerabilities which remain uncovered during the testing phase of a system's development lifecycle. The combination of predicted usage patterns, a Provenance network model and a clustering methodology provide a secure failure mechanism for both known and unknown security issues within the system. The paper also addresses of the requisite supporting infrastructure and deployment issues related to the model. The idea is to approach the growing problem of newer and more complex vulnerabilities in an ever more intricate and vast set of systems using a generic software state mapping procedure for recognizable (and thus the complementary unrecognizable patterns to judge the stability at each step in an operation sequence. Thus abstracting these vulnerabilities at a higher level provides us a generic technique to classify and handle such concerns in the future and in turn prevent exploits before a corrective patch is released.
Morrison, G.S.; Spencer, D.S.
The National Institute of Justice has tasked their Satellite Facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps to identi~ the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion fi-om outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees, In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these initial assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.
Osland, Michael J; Griffith, Kereen T; Larriviere, Jack C; Feher, Laura C; Cahoon, Donald R; Enwright, Nicholas M; Oster, David A; Tirpak, John M; Woodrey, Mark S; Collini, Renee C; Baustian, Joseph J; Breithaupt, Joshua L; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A; Donoghue, Joseph F; Graham, Sean A; Harper, Jennifer W; Hester, Mark W; Howard, Rebecca J; Krauss, Ken W; Kroes, Daniel E; Lane, Robert R; McKee, Karen L; Mendelssohn, Irving A; Middleton, Beth A; Moon, Jena A; Piazza, Sarai C; Rankin, Nicole M; Sklar, Fred H; Steyer, Greg D; Swanson, Kathleen M; Swarzenski, Christopher M; Vervaeke, William C; Willis, Jonathan M; Wilson, K Van
Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used
Michael J Osland
Full Text Available Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA across political boundaries (states, wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise. Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our
Osland, Michael J.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel; Lane, Robert R.; Mckee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William; Willis, Jonathan M; Van Wilson, K.
Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be
Full Text Available Network vulnerability taxonomy has become increasingly important in the area of information and data exchange not only for its potential use in identification of vulnerabilities but also in their assessment and prioritization. Computer networks play an important role in information and communication infrastructure. However, they are constantly exposed to a variety of vulnerability risks. In their attempts to create secure information exchange systems, scientists have concentrated on understanding the nature and typology of these vulnerabilities. Their efforts aimed at establishing secure networks have led to the development of a variety of methods and techniques for quantifying vulnerability. The objective of the present paper is developing a method based on the second edition of common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS for the quantification of Computer Network vulnerabilities. It is expected that the proposed model will help in the identification and effective management of vulnerabilities by their quantification.
Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A.
Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates
Jaeger, Calvin D
Sandia National Laboratories, under the direction of the Office of Science and Technology, National Institute of Justice, conducted the chemical facility vulnerability assessment (CFVA) project. The primary objective of this project was to develop, test and validate a vulnerability assessment methodology (VAM) for determining the security of chemical facilities against terrorist or criminal attacks (VAM-CF). The project also included a report to the Department of Justice for Congress that in addition to describing the VAM-CF also addressed general observations related to security practices, threats and risks at chemical facilities and chemical transport. In the development of the VAM-CF Sandia leveraged the experience gained from the use and development of VAs in other areas and the input from the chemical industry and Federal agencies. The VAM-CF is a systematic, risk-based approach where risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the attack potential, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. For the purpose of the VAM-CF analyses Risk is a function of S, L(A), and L(AS), where S is the severity of consequence of an event, L(A) is the attack potential and L(AS) likelihood of adversary success in causing a catastrophic event. The VAM-CF consists of 13 basic steps. It involves an initial screening step, which helps to identify and prioritize facilities for further analysis. This step is similar to the prioritization approach developed by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Other steps help to determine the components of the risk equation and ultimately the risk. The VAM-CF process involves identifying the hazardous chemicals and processes at a chemical facility. It helps chemical facilities to focus their attention on the most critical areas. The VAM-CF is not a quantitative analysis but, rather, compares relative security risks. If the risks are deemed too high, recommendations are developed for
Murray Petrie; Richard Hemming
Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer-term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of ...
Gephart, Jessica A.; Rovenskaya, Elena; Dieckmann, Ulf; Pace, Michael L.; Brännström, Åke
Trade can allow countries to overcome local or regional losses (shocks) to their food supply, but reliance on international food trade also exposes countries to risks from external perturbations. Countries that are nutritionally or economically dependent on international trade of a commodity may be adversely affected by such shocks. While exposure to shocks has been studied in financial markets, communication networks, and some infrastructure systems, it has received less attention in food-trade networks. Here, we develop a forward shock-propagation model to quantify how trade flows are redistributed under a range of shock scenarios and assess the food-security outcomes by comparing changes in national fish supplies to indices of each country’s nutritional fish dependency. Shock propagation and distribution among regions are modeled on a network of historical bilateral seafood trade data from UN Comtrade using 205 reporting territories grouped into 18 regions. In our model exposure to shocks increases with total imports and the number of import partners. We find that Central and West Africa are the most vulnerable to shocks, with their vulnerability increasing when a willingness-to-pay proxy is included. These findings suggest that countries can reduce their overall vulnerability to shocks by reducing reliance on imports and diversifying food sources. As international seafood trade grows, identifying these types of potential risks and vulnerabilities is important to build a more resilient food system.
Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov
East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability...
Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither
Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...
Tufan Turaci; Hüseyin Aksan
Let G=(V(G),E(G)) be an undirected simple connected graph. A network is usually represented by an undirected simple graph where vertices represent processors and edges represent links between processors. Finding the vulnerability values of communication networks modeled by graphs is important for network designers. The vulnerability value of a communication network shows the resistance of the network after the disruption of some centers or connection lines until a communication breakdown. The...
Full Text Available Purpose. Physical expansion of urban areas and cities is of great importance nowadays. Irreparable damages will thus be caused by lack of proper planning against natural disasters. Crisis management will therefore guide through prevention, preparedness, disaster relief, and recovery by planning an appropriate program. Methodology. Principal processes of crisis management against earthquake in Iran were evaluated and discussed. Multicriteria earthquake crisis management was then proposed by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Vulnerability of 19 urban areas in Qazvin city was studied and analyzed as a case study. Three main criteria were considered as “physical dimensions and physical vulnerability texture,” “the amount of urban texture responsibility to aid after crisis,” and “possibility of city reversibility after the crisis.” These criteria were divided into 20 subcriteria which were prioritized by a questionnaire survey. Findings. “High population density,” “urban texture of old and repairable buildings,” “lack of relief and medical services,” “a few organic texture areas,” “sidewalks with less than 6 meters width in the region,” and “lack of open spaces in the area” were concluded to be the most important reasons causing high vulnerability of urban texture in Qazvin city.
Groundwater is a critical resource that serve as a source of drinking water to large human population and, provide long-term water for irrigation purposes. In recent years; however, this precious resource being increasingly threatened, due to natural and anthropogenic activities. A variety of contaminants of emerging concern such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products, perfluorinated compounds, endocrine disruptors, and biological agents detected in the groundwater sources of both developing and developed nations. In this review paper, various studies have been included that documented instances of groundwater pollution and vulnerability to emerging contaminants of concern, pesticides, heavy metals, and leaching potential of various organic and inorganic contaminants from poorly managed residual waste products (biosolids, landfills, latrines, and septic tanks etc.). Understanding vulnerability of groundwater to pollution is critical to maintain the integrity of groundwater. A section on managed artificial recharge studies is included to highlight the sustainable approaches to groundwater conservation, replenishment and sustainability. This review paper is the synthesis of studies published in last one year that either documented the pollution problems or evaluated the vulnerability of groundwater pollution.
Full Text Available Let G=(V(G,E(G be an undirected simple connected graph. A network is usually represented by an undirected simple graph where vertices represent processors and edges represent links between processors. Finding the vulnerability values of communication networks modeled by graphs is important for network designers. The vulnerability value of a communication network shows the resistance of the network after the disruption of some centers or connection lines until a communication breakdown. The domination number and its variations are the most important vulnerability parameters for network vulnerability. Some variations of domination numbers are the 2-domination number, the bondage number, the reinforcement number, the average lower domination number, the average lower 2-domination number, and so forth. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of cycles and related graphs, namely, fans, k-pyramids, and n-gon books, via domination parameters. Then, exact solutions of the domination parameters are obtained for the above-mentioned graphs.
Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Duan, Na
To understand the vulnerability of the power network from multiple perspectives, multi-angle and multi-dimensional vulnerability analysis as well as community based vulnerability analysis are proposed in this paper. Taking into account of central China power grid as an example, correlation analysis of different vulnerability models is discussed. Then, vulnerabilities produced by different vulnerability metrics under the given vulnerability models and failure scenarios are analyzed. At last, applying the community detecting approach, critical areas of central China power grid are identified, Vulnerable and robust communities on both topological and functional perspective are acquired and analyzed. The approach introduced in this paper can be used to help decision makers develop optimal protection strategies. It will be also useful to give a multiple vulnerability analysis of the other infrastructure systems.
... SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool AGENCY: Transportation Security Administration, DHS. ACTION: Notice of removal of TSA's maritime vulnerability self... transportation security incident (TSI)\\1\\ must conduct a vulnerability assessment and submit a security plan to...
Linda Joyce; Molly Cross; Evan Girvatz
This chapter addresses issues and approaches for dealing with uncertainty specifically within the context of conducting climate change vulnerability assessments (i.e., uncertainties related to identifying and modeling the sensitivities, levels of exposure, and adaptive capacity of the assessment targets).
Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; Guerra, Solange Maria
We compare two widely employed models that estimate systemic risk: DebtRank and Differential DebtRank. We show that not only network cyclicality but also the average vulnerability of banks are essential concepts that contribute to widening the gap in the systemic risk estimates of both approaches. We find that systemic risk estimates are the same whenever the network has no cycles. However, in case the network presents cyclicality, then we need to inspect the average vulnerability of banks to estimate the underestimation gap. We find that the gap is small regardless of the cyclicality of the network when its average vulnerability is large. In contrast, the observed gap follows a quadratic behavior when the average vulnerability is small or intermediate. We show results using an econometric exercise and draw guidelines both on artificial and real-world financial networks.
Anatoly Valerievich Tsaregorodtsev
Full Text Available Today organizations increasingly consider cloud computing as an alternative way of using information technology. At the same time, the use of different vulnerabilities of infrastructure components, network services and applications remains are the major threat to the cloud. The article proposes a methodology for vulnerability assessment for any type of cloud structures, which will allow to determine the coefficient of counter to possible attacks and to correlate the amount of damage to the total cost of ownership of organization IT-infrastructure.
Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small–moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.
This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .
Saha, Sudip; Vullinati, Anil K.; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Chatterjee, Samrat
We investigate efficient security control methods for protecting against vulnerabilities in networked systems. A large number of interdependent vulnerabilities typically exist in the computing nodes of a cyber-system; as vulnerabilities get exploited, starting from low level ones, they open up the doors to more critical vulnerabilities. These cannot be understood just by a topological analysis of the network, and we use the attack graph abstraction of Dewri et al. to study these problems. In contrast to earlier approaches based on heuristics and evolutionary algorithms, we study rigorous methods for quantifying the inherent vulnerability and hardening cost for the system. We develop algorithms with provable approximation guarantees, and evaluate them for real and synthetic attack graphs.
Full Text Available stream_source_info Matooane_2010.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 7198 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Matooane_2010.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Mamopeli Matooane, MSc. Juanette... John, MSc. Riëtha Oosthuizen, MSc. Vulnerability to air pollution: a building block in assessing vulnerability to multiple stressors 30 August 2010 Overview • Vulnerability • Vulnerability assessment - Scope - Approach - Assessing...
M. M. de Brito
Full Text Available This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP and analytical network process (ANP multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.
Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian
This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.
Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi
Full Text Available With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities. This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control. Vulnerability Assessment (VA deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency. Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks in communication links, sabotage or intrusion by external agents, human errors, natural calamities and faults. These contingencies could lead to a disruption of service to part or all of the system. The service disruption is known as outage or blackout. The paper outlines an approach by which feature extraction and boundary tracking can be implemented to achieve on line vulnerability assessment.
Full Text Available Vulnerability analysis of urban drainage networks plays an important role in urban flood management. This study analyzes and compares the vulnerability of tree and loop systems under various rainfall events to structural failure represented by pipe blockage. Different pipe blockage scenarios, in which one of the pipes in an urban drainage network is assumed to be blocked individually, are constructed and their impacts on the network are simulated under different storm events. Furthermore, a vulnerability index is defined to measure the vulnerability of the drainage systems before and after the implementation of adaptation measures. The results obtained indicate that the tree systems have a relatively larger proportion of critical hydraulic pipes than the loop systems, thus the vulnerability of tree systems is substantially greater than that of the loop systems. Furthermore, the vulnerability index of tree systems is reduced after they are converted into a loop system with the implementation of adaptation measures. This paper provides an insight into the differences in the vulnerability of tree and loop systems, and provides more evidence for development of adaptation measures (e.g., tanks to reduce urban flooding.
Lazarick, Richard T.
The Airport Vulnerability Assessment Project (AVAP) is the direct result of congressional funding of recommendation 3.13 of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security. This project takes a new approach to the assessment of U.S. commercial airports. AVAP uses automation, analytical methods and tools to evaluate vulnerability and risk, and to analyze cost/benefits in a more quantitative manner. This paper addresses both the process used to conduct this program, as well as a generalized look at the results, which have been achieved for the initial airport assessments. The process description covers the acquisition approach, the project structure, and a review of the various methodologies and tools being used by the sever performing organizations (Abacus Technology, Battelle, CTI, Lockwood Greene, Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center, SAIC, and Science & Engineering Associates). The tools described include ASSESS, SAM, RiskWatch, CASRAP, and AVAT. Included in the process is the utilization of an advisory panel made up predominantly of experts from the National Laboratories 9Sandia, Oak Ridge, Argonne and Brookhaven). The results portion addresses the findings and products resulting from the initial airport assessments. High level (unrestricted) summaries of the results are presented, along with initial trends in commonly recommended security improvements (countermeasures). Opportunities for the application of optics technology are identified.
The case of Cuba offers a unique opportunity to investigate the dynamics of climate vulnerability. This paper takes a closer look at recent economic and social developments in Cuba, and how these affect patterns of vulnerability. Faced with the ongoing processes of climate change and economic globalization, Cuban households are carefully trying to sustain livelihood. Findings suggest that social networks are important as means of accessing coping strategies. Their access is on the other hand not equally distributed.
Serre, D.; Barroca, B.
some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders
The dilemma of cyber communications insecurity has existed all the times since the beginning of the network communications. The problems and concerns of unauthorized access and hacking has existed form the time of introduction of world wide web communication and Internet's expansion for popular use in 1990s, and has remained till present time as one of the most important issues. The wireless network security is no exception. Serious and continuous efforts of investigation, research and development has been going on for the last several decades to achieve the goal of provision of 100 percent or full proof security for all the protocols of networking architectures including the wireless networking. Some very reliable and robust strategies have been developed and deployed which has made network communications more and more secure. However, the most desired goal of complete security has yet to see the light of the day. The latest Cyber War scenario, reported in the media of intrusion and hacking of each other's defense and secret agencies between the two super powers USA and China has further aggravated the situation. This sort of intrusion by hackers between other countries such as India and Pakistan, Israel and Middle East countries has also been going on and reported in the media frequently. The paper reviews and critically examines the strategies already in place, for wired network. Wireless Network Security and also suggests some directions and strategies for more robust aspects to be researched and deployed.
... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability assessments. (a) Initial Assessment. If the Assistant Secretary determines that a chemical facility is high-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...
Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Frigo, B.; De Biagi, V.; Chiaia, B.
Until a few decades ago, damages and human losses related to the avalanche risk represented only a small part of the destructive effects produced each year by natural events. Nowadays, on the contrary, the situation has considerably changed due to growing of the built-up areas and human presence in the mountain environment: this fact increases the current avalanche risk and puts snow avalanches and hydro-geological risks (floods, landslides, rock falls, etc…) at the same importance level. To mitigate the effects, Authorities provide both specific policies for urban development and mountain land use and simple but reliable methodologies to define the avalanche risk. As is well known, risk can be defined as the product of three factors: the environmental danger P (probability that a given phenomenon with its catastrophic intensity occurs in a specific area and time), the vulnerability V (degree of loss of one or more elements by a natural phenomenon of a known magnitude) and the exposure E (measure of the exposed value for each vulnerable element). A novel approach for the evaluation of the "Vulnerability factor" of a new or existing building under avalanche hazard by considering its structural (materials, strength and robustness, etc…) and architectural (shape, exposure, etc…) peculiarities is presented. A real avalanche event occurred in December, 2008 in Aosta Valley, which caused the total collapse of a building is taken as an example for tesing the effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment. By means of photographical analysis on undamaged parts, local surveys and debris arrangement, the impact pressure and the collapse dynamics are back-analyzed. The results are commented and comparisons between the damages and Vulnerability factor are made.
Guimarães, Paulo R., Jr.; de Menezes, Márcio Argollo; Baird, Robin W.; Lusseau, David; Guimarães, Paulo; Dos Reis, Sérgio F.
Emerging infectious diseases are among the main threats to conservation of biological diversity. A crucial task facing epidemiologists is to predict the vulnerability of populations of endangered animals to disease outbreaks. In this context, the network structure of social interactions within animal populations may affect disease spreading. However, endangered animal populations are often small and to investigate the dynamics of small networks is a difficult task. Using network theory, we show that the social structure of an endangered population of mammal-eating killer whales is vulnerable to disease outbreaks. This feature was found to be a consequence of the combined effects of the topology and strength of social links among individuals. Our results uncover a serious challenge for conservation of the species and its ecosystem. In addition, this study shows that the network approach can be useful to study dynamical processes in very small networks.
Full Text Available transport, complex network theory has had limited application in studying the vulnerability of maritime networks. This study uses targeted link disruption to investigate the strategy specific vulnerability of the network. Although nodal infrastructure...
Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd
Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.
Daniel (Jian Sun
Full Text Available Rail transit is developing rapidly in major cities of China and has become a key component of urban transport. Nevertheless, the security and reliability in operation are significant issues that cannot be neglected. In this paper, the network and station vulnerabilities of the urban rail transit system were analyzed based on complex network and graph theories. A vulnerability evaluation model was proposed by accounting metro interchange and passenger flow and further validated by a case study of Shanghai Metro with full-scale network and real-world traffic data. It is identified that the urban rail transit network is rather robust to random attacks, but is vulnerable to the largest degree node-based attacks and the highest betweenness node-based attacks. Metro stations with a large node degree are more important in maintaining the network size, while stations with a high node betweenness are critical to network efficiency and origin-destination (OD connectivity. The most crucial stations in maintaining network serviceability do not necessarily have the highest passenger throughput or the largest structural connectivity. A comprehensive evaluation model as proposed is therefore essential to assess station vulnerability, so that attention can be placed on appropriate nodes within the metro system. The findings of this research are of both theoretical and practical significance for urban rail transit network design and performance evaluation.
Stojanović Božidar; Jovašević-Stojanović Milena
.... This paper considers development of method for inclusion vulnerability assessment in land use planning with objective to assess and limit the consequences in cities of likely accidents involving...
Gokesch, Karin; Promper, Catrin; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria; Glade, Thomas
Natural hazard risk management is based on detailed information on potential impacts of natural hazards. Especially concerning fast onset hazards such as flash floods, earthquakes but also debris flows and landslides, knowing potential hotspots of impact to both, assets and human lives is essential. This information is important for emergency management and decision making in the response phase of the disaster management cycle. Emergency managers are in need of information regarding not only the number of humans being potentially affected but also the respective vulnerability of the group affected based on characteristics such as age, income, health condition, mobility, etc. regarding a certain hazard. The analysis presented focuses on the distribution of the population, assuming a certain pattern of people in a certain radius of action. The method applied is based on a regular pattern of movement of different groups of people and a pattern of presence in certain units, e.g. schools, businesses or residential buildings. The distribution is calculated on a minimum of available data including the average household size, as well as information on building types. The study area is located in the Southwest of Lower Austria, Austria. The city of Waidhofen/Ybbs can be regarded as a regional center providing basic infrastructure, shops and schools. The high concentration of buildings combining shops and residential units leads to a high damage potential throughout the whole study area. The presented results indicate the population distribution within the study area on an average working day. It is clear that explicitly high numbers of people are located in specific buildings (e.g. schools and hospitals) which also include highly vulnerable groups especially to fast onset hazards. The results provide emergency services with the information that they need in order to intervene directly where large numbers of victims or people that need to be evacuated are located. In this
Sebastian M. Krause
Full Text Available In many complex systems representable as networks, nodes can be separated into different classes. Often these classes can be linked to a mutually shared vulnerability. Shared vulnerabilities may be due to a shared eavesdropper or correlated failures. In this paper, we show the impact of shared vulnerabilities on robust connectivity and how the heterogeneity of node classes can be exploited to maintain functionality by utilizing multiple paths. Percolation is the field of statistical physics that is generally used to analyze connectivity in complex networks, but in its existing forms, it cannot treat the heterogeneity of multiple vulnerable classes. To analyze the connectivity under these constraints, we describe each class as a color and develop a “color-avoiding” percolation. We present an analytic theory for random networks and a numerical algorithm for all networks, with which we can determine which nodes are color-avoiding connected and whether the maximal set percolates in the system. We find that the interaction of topology and color distribution implies a rich critical behavior, with critical values and critical exponents depending both on the topology and on the color distribution. Applying our physics-based theory to the Internet, we show how color-avoiding percolation can be used as the basis for new topologically aware secure communication protocols. Beyond applications to cybersecurity, our framework reveals a new layer of hidden structure in a wide range of natural and technological systems.
Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. One of the most widely used methods in assessing risk and vulnerability of coastlines on a regional scale includes the calculation of vulnerability indices and presenting these results on a ...
Johnston, Roger G
Safety and security share numerous attributes. The author, who heads the (Security) Vulnerability Assessment Team at Los Alamos National Laboratory, therefore argues that techniques used to optimize security might be useful for optimizing safety. There are three main ways to attempt to improve security-security surveys, risk assessment (or "design basis threat"), and vulnerability assessments. The latter is usually the most effective. Vulnerability assessment techniques used to improve security can be applied to safety analysis--even though safety is not ordinarily viewed as having malicious adversaries (other than hazards involving deliberate sabotage). Thinking like a malicious adversary can nevertheless have benefits in identifying safety vulnerabilities. The attributes of an effective safety vulnerability assessment are discussed, and recommendations are offered for how such an adversarial assessment might work. A safety vulnerability assessment can potentially provide new insights, a fresh and vivid perspective on safety hazards, and increased safety awareness.
Starita, Stefano; Esposito Amideo, Annunziata; Scaparra, Maria Paola
Urban rail transit systems are highly vulnerable to a variety of disruptions, including accidental failures, natural disasters and terrorist attacks. Due to the crucial role that railway infrastructures play in economic development, productivity and social well-being of communities, evaluating their vulnerability and identifying their most critical components is of paramount importance. Two main approaches can be deployed to assess transport infrastructure vulnerabilities: vulnerability metri...
Full Text Available As the Internet becomes larger in scale, more complex in structure and more diversified in traffic, the number of crimes that utilize computer technologies is also increasing at a phenomenal rate. To react to the increasing number of computer crimes, the field of computer and network forensics has emerged. The general purpose of network forensics is to find malicious users or activities by gathering and dissecting firm evidences about computer crimes, e.g., hacking. However, due to the large volume of Internet traffic, not all the traffic captured and analyzed is valuable for investigation or confirmation. After analyzing some existing network forensics methods to identify common shortcomings, we propose in this paper a new network forensics method that uses a combination of network vulnerability and network evidence graph. In our proposed method, we use vulnerability evidence and reasoning algorithm to reconstruct attack scenarios and then backtrack the network packets to find the original evidences. Our proposed method can reconstruct attack scenarios effectively and then identify multi-staged attacks through evidential reasoning. Results of experiments show that the evidence graph constructed using our method is more complete and credible while possessing the reasoning capability.
Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.
Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.
Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H
Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.
King, William H
.... There are very few vulnerability and impact models capable of providing information owners with the ability to comprehensively assess the effectiveness an organization's malicious insider mitigation strategies...
prepared in France by Margat (1968). In Germany,. Vierhuff et al. (1981) made a vulnerability map of the former Federal Republic of Germany before reunification on the same scale. The current international practices in mapping groundwater vulnerability have been reviewed by Vrba and Zaprozec (1994), Magiera (2000),.
Preziosi, E; Petrangeli, A B; Giuliano, G
Monitoring networks aiming to assess the state of groundwater quality and detect or predict changes could increase in efficiency when fitted to vulnerability and pollution risk assessment. The main purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology aiming at integrating aquifers vulnerability and actual levels of groundwater pollution in the monitoring network design. In this study carried out in a pilot area in central Italy, several factors such as hydrogeological setting, groundwater vulnerability, and natural and anthropogenic contamination levels were analyzed and used in designing a network tailored to the monitoring objectives, namely, surveying the evolution of groundwater quality relating to natural conditions as well as to polluting processes active in the area. Due to the absence of an aquifer vulnerability map for the whole area, a proxi evaluation of it was performed through a geographic information system (GIS) methodology, leading to the so called "susceptibility to groundwater quality degradation". The latter was used as a basis for the network density assessment, while water points were ranked by several factors including discharge, actual contamination levels, maintenance conditions, and accessibility for periodical sampling in order to select the most appropriate to the network. Two different GIS procedures were implemented which combine vulnerability conditions and water points suitability, producing two slightly different networks of 50 monitoring points selected out of the 121 candidate wells and springs. The results are compared with a "manual" selection of the points. The applied GIS procedures resulted capable to select the requested number of water points from the initial set, evaluating the most confident ones and an appropriate density. Moreover, it is worth underlining that the second procedure (point distance analysis [PDA]) is technically faster and simpler to be performed than the first one (GRID + PDA).
Kersulis, Jonas [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Backhaus, Scott N. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Bienstock, Daniel [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
A time-coupled instanton method for characterizing transmission network vulnerability to wind generation fluctuation is presented. To extend prior instanton work to multiple-time-step analysis, line constraints are specified in terms of temperature rather than current. An optimization formulation is developed to express the minimum wind forecast deviation such that at least one line is driven to its thermal limit. Results are shown for an IEEE RTS-96 system with several wind-farms.
Indra Dwi Rianto
Full Text Available WiFi Protected Setup (WPS is a standardized function supported by numerous vendors of wireless routers and access point to help set up connection to a wireless local area network. It is designed to simplify the set up and generally enabled by default. Due to design flaw, the WPS or QSS PIN is susceptible to a brute forceattack. In this paper, we test the security vulnerability occurred, evaluate the performance and give recommendations to anticipate the attack.
Nava eLevit Binnun
Full Text Available Resilience research has usually focused on identifying protective factors associated with specific stress conditions (e.g., war, trauma or psychopathologies (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder. Implicit in this research is the concept that resilience is a global construct, invariant to the unfavorable circumstances or the psychopathologies that may develop (i.e., the mechanisms underlying the resilience of an individual in all cases are expected to be similar. Here we contribute to the understanding of resilience—and its counterpart, vulnerability—by employing an approach that makes use of this invariant quality. We outline two main characteristics that we would expect from indicators of a vulnerable state: that they should appear across disorders regardless of specific circumstances, and that they should appear much before the disorder is evident. Next, we identify two sets of factors that exhibit this pattern of association with psychopathological states. The first was a set of low-level sensory, motor and regulatory irregularities that have been reported across the clinical literature; we suggest that these can serve as behavioral indicators of a vulnerable state. The second was the set of aberrations in network metrics that have been reported in the field of systems neuroscience; we suggest that these can serve as network indicators of a vulnerable state. Finally, we explore how behavioral indicators may be related to network indicators and discuss the clinical and research-related implications of our work.
Fuchs, Sven; Ornetsmüller, Christine
In the European Alps the concept of risk has increasingly been applied in order to reduce the susceptibility of society to mountain hazards. Risk is defined as a function of the magnitude and frequency of a hazard process times consequences; the latter being quantified by the value of elements at risk exposed and their vulnerability. Vulnerability means the degree of loss to a given element at risk resulting from the impact of a natural hazard. Recent empirical studies suggested a dependency of the degree of loss on the hazard impact, and respective vulnerability (or damage-loss) functions were developed. However, until now only little information is available on the spatial characteristics of vulnerability on a local scale; considerable ranges in the loss ratio for medium process intensities only provide a hint that there might me mutual reasons for lower or higher loss rates. In this paper we therefore focus on the spatial dimension of vulnerability by searching for spatial clusters in the damage ratio of elements at risk exposed. By using the software SaTScan, we applied an ordinal data model and a normal data model in order to detect spatial distribution patterns of five individual torrent events in Austria. For both models, we detected some significant clusters of high damage ratios, and consequently high vulnerability. Moreover, secondary clusters of high and low values were found. Based on our results, the assumption that lower process intensities result in lower damage ratios, and therefore in lower vulnerability, and vice versa, has to be partly rejected. The spatial distribution of vulnerability is not only dependent on the process intensities but also on the overall land use pattern and the individual constructive characteristics of the buildings exposed. Generally we suggest the use of a normal data model for test sites exceeding a minimum of 30 elements at risk exposed. As such, the study enhanced our understanding of spatial vulnerability patterns on
Full Text Available Recently, much attention has been paid to the reliability and vulnerability of critical infrastructure. In air traffic systems, the vulnerability analysis for airport networks can be used to guide air traffic administrations in their prioritization of the maintenance and repair of airports, as well as to avoid unnecessary disturbances in the planning of flight schedules. In this paper, the evaluation methods of airport importance and network efficiency are established. Firstly, the evaluation indices of airport importance are proposed from both the topological and functional perspectives. The topological characteristics come from the structure of airport network and the functional features stem from the traffic flow distribution taking place inside the network. Secondly, an integrated evaluation method based on fuzzy soft set theory is proposed to identify the key airports, which can fuse together importance indices over different time intervals. Thirdly, an airport network efficiency method is established for the purpose of assessing the accuracy of the evaluation method. Finally, empirical studies using real traffic data of US and China’s airport networks show that the evaluation method proposed in this paper is the most accurate. The vulnerability of US and China’s airport networks is compared. The similarities and differences between airport geography distribution and airport importance distribution are discussed here and the dynamics of airport importance is studied as well.
Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C
Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.
Urquijo, Julia; De Stefano, Lucia; González-Tánago, Itziar; Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin
During the past decade, a number of theoretical frameworks have been defined within the Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change communities to assess drought vulnerability at different scales, sectors, socio-political contexts, and geo-climatic conditions. However, there is still little consensus around the criteria, dimensions and factors used in these assessments; and none of them has been applied at a pan-European scale. This is due to a triple complexity. Firstly, drought as a natural hazard is a complex phenomenon due to the difficulty of determining its onset and its multiscale, multifaceted and dynamic nature. Secondly, there is an on-going debate regarding the concept of vulnerability and its constitutive elements, together with an important diversity of theoretical approaches to assess it. Finally, Europe's diversity in bioclimatic conditions, national water use practice and water use policies adds a challenging characteristic for working on pan-European scale. This work addresses the challenge of defining a methodological approach to the assessment of vulnerability factors to drought at a pan-European scale. For this purpose, we first review existing conceptual frameworks as well as of past initiatives for drought vulnerability assessment. The literature review showed that the high complexity of drought vulnerability assessment requires a clear definition of the concept of vulnerability and the associated terms, and that, before undertaking any assessment, it is necessary to clearly define the "vulnerable unit" i.e. replying to the questions 'whose vulnerability is being assessed?' and 'vulnerability to what type of impact?'. In this context, this work proposes the application of a factor-based approach, consisting in the analysis of significant factors that influence vulnerability in the context of specific situations of potential vulnerability. Those situations are framed within the specific drought characteristics of four different geoclimatic macro
The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.
Mohamed E. Hereher
Full Text Available The Egyptian Mediterranean coast was examined for the vulnerability to sea-level rise using the coastal vulnerability index (CVI, which was derived from the geologic and physical characteristics of the coast. This paper is the first to apply the CVI along the Egyptian coasts. The coast has different geomorphologic aspects ranging from steep-slope-rocky cliffs to gentle sloping deltaic sediments. Although the coast is under low tidal effect and low height waves, results showed that more than one-third of the 1000 km long coast is severely vulnerable to sea-level rise. Unfortunately, the area under high vulnerability to sea-level rise comprises the densely populated Nile Delta coast. National actions should be implemented to safeguard the entire coast at the threatened locations.
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — NatureServe and Heritage Program collaborators have developed a Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to provide a rapid, scientifically defensible assessment of...
Background: Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived vulnerability to HIV ...
... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27 Section 1730.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...
quantitatively evaluate individual vulnerability. However it cannot be applied to evaluate software risk directly and some metrics of CVSS are hard to assess. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper presents a novel method, which combines the CVSS base score with market share and software patches, to quantitatively evaluate the software risk. It is based on CVSS and includes three indicators: Absolute Severity Value (ASV, Relative Severity Value (RSV and Severity Value Variation Rate (SVVR. Experimental results indicate that by using these indicators, the method can quantitatively describe the risk level of software systems, and thus strengthen software security.
Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.
This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of
Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven
In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.
Sartori, Martina; Schiavo, Stefano
This work investigates the relationship between countries' participation in virtual water trade and their vulnerability to external shocks from a network perspective. In particular, we investigate whether (i) possible sources of local national crises may interact with the system, propagating through the network and affecting the other countries involved; (ii) the topological characteristics of the international agricultural trade network, translated into virtual water-equivalent flows, may favor countries' vulnerability to external crises. Our work contributes to the debate on the potential merits and risks associated with openness to trade in agricultural and food products. On the one hand, trade helps to ensure that even countries with limited water (and other relevant) resources have access to sufficient food and contribute to the global saving of water. On the other hand, there are fears that openness may increase the vulnerability to external shocks and thus make countries worse off. Here we abstract from political considerations about food sovereignty and independence from imports and focus instead on investigating whether the increased participation in global trade that the world has witnessed in the last 30 years has made the system more susceptible to large shocks. Our analysis reveals that: (i) the probability of larger supply shocks has not increased over time; (ii) the topological characteristics of the VW network are not such as to favor the systemic risk associated with shock propagation; and (iii) higher-order interconnections may reveal further important information about the structure of a network. Regarding the first result, fluctuations in output volumes, among the sources of shock analyzed here, are more likely to generate some instability. The first implication is that, on one side, past national or regional economic crises were not necessarily brought about or strengthened by global trade. The second, more remarkable, implication is that, on
Leng, Jun-qiang; Zhai, Jing; Li, Qian-wen; Zhao, Lin
With the development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of her urban road network, the vulnerability of the urban road network has attracted increasing attention. Based on general travel cost, this work constructs the vulnerability evaluation index for the urban road network, and evaluates the vulnerability of the urban road network from the perspective of user generalised travel cost. Firstly, the generalised travel cost model is constructed based on vehicle cost, travel time, and traveller comfort. Then, the network efficiency index is selected as an evaluation index of vulnerability: the network efficiency index is composed of the traffic volume and the generalised travel cost, which are obtained from the equilibrium state of the network. In addition, the research analyses the influence of traffic capacity decrease, road section attribute value, and location of road section, on vulnerability. Finally, the vulnerability index is used to analyse the local area network of Harbin and verify its applicability.
Koç, Y.; Warnier, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Brazier, F.
Cascading failures are the typical reasons of blackouts in power grids. The grid topology plays an important role in determining the dynamics of cascading failures in power grids. Measures for vulnerability analysis are crucial to assure a higher level of robustness of power grids. Metrics from
Friend, R.; Choosuk, C.; Hutanuwatr, K.; Inmuong, Y.; Kittitornkool, J.; Lambregts, B.; Promphakping, B.; Roachanakanan, T.; Thiengburanathum, P.; Siriwattanaphaiboon, S.
This report summarises a series of studies carried out by a multi-disciplinary team of Thai scholars. It focuses on the dynamics of urbanisation and climate change risks, and on the linkages between urbanisation, climate change and emerging patterns of urban poverty and vulnerability. It provides
Silvis, I.C.J.; Ruth, van S.M.; Fels, van der Ine; Luning, P.A.
Recent scandals have increased the need to strengthen companies’ ability to combat fraud within their own organizations and across their supply chain. Vulnerability assessments are a first step towards the inventory of fraud vulnerability and fraud mitigation plans. Spices are reported frequently
The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to contamination has become an important element for landuse planning and groundwater resource management. This study aims at estimating groundwater vulnerability using an integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) and DRASTIC method in the Kumasi ...
Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...
Jun 1, 2016 ... The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to contamination has become an important element for landuse planning and groundwater resource management. This study aims at estimating groundwater vulnerability using an integration of. Geographic Information System (GIS) and DRASTIC method in the ...
Trent D. Nelson
Industry is aware of the need for Control System (CS) security, but in on-site assessments, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has observed that security procedures and devices are not consistently and effectively implemented. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Cyber Security Division (NCSD), established the Control Systems Security Center (CSSC) at INL to help industry and government improve the security of the CSs used in the nation's critical infrastructures. One of the main CSSC objectives is to identify control system vulnerabilities and develop effective mitigations for them. This paper discusses common problems and vulnerabilities seen in on-site CS assessments and suggests mitigation strategies to provide asset owners with the information they need to better protect their systems from common security flows.
Full Text Available Organisations and individuals benefit when wireless networks are protected. After assessing the risks associated with wireless technologies, organisations can reduce the risks by applying countermeasures to address specific threats and vulnerabilities. These countermeasures include management, operational and technical controls. While these countermeasures will not prevent all penetrations and adverse events, they can be effective in reducing many of the common risks associated with wireless RF networks. Among engineers dealing with different scaled and interconnected engineering systems, such as tactical wireless RF communication systems, there is a growing need for a means of analyzing complex adaptive systems. We propose a methodology based on the systematic resolution of complex issues to manage the vulnerabilities of tactical wireless RF systems. There are is a need to assemble and balance the results of any successful measure, showing how well each solution meets the system’s objectives. The uncertain arguments used and other test results are combined using a form of mathematical theory for their analysis. Systems engineering thinking supports design decisions and enables decision‐makers to manage and assess the support for each solution. In these circumstances, complexity management arises from the many interacting and conflicting requirements of an increasing range of possible parameters. There may not be a single ‘right’ solution, only a satisfactory set of resolutions which this system helps to facilitate. Smart and innovative performance matrixes are introduced using a mathematical Bayesian network to manage, model, calculate and analyse all the potential vulnerability paths in wireless RF networks
Swiler, L.P.; Phillips, C. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gaylor, T. [3M, Austin, TX (United States). Visual Systems Div.
This report presents a graph-based approach to network vulnerability analysis. The method is flexible, allowing analysis of attacks from both outside and inside the network. It can analyze risks to a specific network asset, or examine the universe of possible consequences following a successful attack. The analysis system requires as input a database of common attacks, broken into atomic steps, specific network configuration and topology information, and an attacker profile. The attack information is matched with the network configuration information and an attacker profile to create a superset attack graph. Nodes identify a stage of attack, for example the class of machines the attacker has accessed and the user privilege level he or she has compromised. The arcs in the attack graph represent attacks or stages of attacks. By assigning probabilities of success on the arcs or costs representing level-of-effort for the attacker, various graph algorithms such as shortest-path algorithms can identify the attack paths with the highest probability of success.
Swiler, L.P.; Phillips, C.
This paper presents a graph-based approach to network vulnerability analysis. The method is flexible, allowing analysis of attacks from both outside and inside the network. It can analyze risks to a specific network asset, or examine the universe of possible consequences following a successful attack. The graph-based tool can identify the set of attack paths that have a high probability of success (or a low effort cost) for the attacker. The system could be used to test the effectiveness of making configuration changes, implementing an intrusion detection system, etc. The analysis system requires as input a database of common attacks, broken into atomic steps, specific network configuration and topology information, and an attacker profile. The attack information is matched with the network configuration information and an attacker profile to create a superset attack graph. Nodes identify a stage of attack, for example the class of machines the attacker has accessed and the user privilege level he or she has compromised. The arcs in the attack graph represent attacks or stages of attacks. By assigning probabilities of success on the arcs or costs representing level-of-effort for the attacker, various graph algorithms such as shortest-path algorithms can identify the attack paths with the highest probability of success.
Swiler, L.P.; Phillips, C.; Gaylor, T.
This paper presents a graph based approach to network vulnerability analysis. The method is flexible, allowing analysis of attacks from both outside and inside the network. It can analyze risks to a specific network asset, or examine the universe of possible consequences following a successful attack. The analysis system requires as input a database of common attacks, broken into atomic steps, specific network configuration and topology information, and an attacker profile. The attack information is matched with the network configuration information and an attacker profile to create a superset attack graph. Nodes identify a stage of attack, for example the class of machines the attacker has accessed and the user privilege level he or she has compromised. The arcs in the attack graph represent attacks or stages of attacks. By assigning probabilities of success on the arcs or costs representing level of effort for the attacker, various graph algorithms such as shortest path algorithms can identify the attack paths with the highest probability of success.
Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn
Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.
Full Text Available Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.
Huang, Bao-rong; Ouyang, Zhi-yun; Zhang, Hui-zhi; Zhang, Li-hua; Zheng, Hua
Based on the assessment method of environmental vulnerability constructed by SOPAC and UNEP, this paper constructed an indicator system from three sub-themes including hazard, resistance, and damage to assess the eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island. The results showed that Hainan Island was suffering a middling level eco-environmental hazard, and the main hazards came from some intensive human activities such as intensive agriculture, mass tourism, mining, and a mass of solid wastes thrown by islanders and tourists. Some geographical characters such as larger land area, larger altitude range, integrated geographical form, and abundant habitat types endowed Hainan Island higher resistance to environmental hazards. However, disturbed by historical accumulative artificial and natural hazards, the Island ecosystem had showed serious ecological damage, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Comprehensively considered hazard, resistance, damage, and degradation, the comprehensive environmental vulnerability of the Island was at a middling level. Some indicators showed lower vulnerability, but some showed higher vulnerability.
Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T
.... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...
Xiaming Ye; Junhua Zhao; Yan Zhang; Fushuan Wen
The distribution automation system (DAS) is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: t...
Shriber, Jennifer; Conlon, Kathryn C; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z; Bell, Jesse E
Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, "unsupervised" and "supervised", were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000-2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated ( p vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability.
Full Text Available Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of tsunamis and exposure along the SE coast of New South Wales is especially high. Significantly, this is the same area reported to have been affected by repeated large magnitude tsunamis during the Holocene. Efforts are under way to complete probabilistic risk assessments for the region but local government planners and emergency risk managers need information now about building vulnerability in order to develop appropriate risk management strategies. We use the newly revised PTVA-3 Model (Dall'Osso et al., 2009 to assess the relative vulnerability of buildings to damage from a "worst case tsunami" defined by our latest understanding of regional risk – something never before undertaken in Australia. We present selected results from an investigation of building vulnerability within the local government area of Manly – an iconic coastal area of Sydney. We show that a significant proportion of buildings (in particular, residential structures are classified as having "High" and "Very High" Relative Vulnerability Index scores. Furthermore, other important buildings (e.g., schools, nursing homes and transport structures are also vulnerable to damage. Our results have serious implications for immediate emergency risk management, longer-term land-use zoning and development, and building design and construction standards. Based on the work undertaken here, we recommend further detailed assessment of the vulnerability of coastal buildings in at risk areas, development of appropriate risk management strategies and a detailed program of community engagement to increase overall resilience.
Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Lopes, Raul H.C.
This paper presents an evolutionary approach for learning attack specifications that describe attack scenarios. The objective is to find vulnerabilities in computer networks which minimise the cost of an attack with maximum impact. Although we focus on Insider Threat, the proposed approach applies
Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora
This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to
Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A
Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.
Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To
Full Text Available Aiming at the dense urban road network vulnerability without structural negative consequences, this paper proposes a novel non-structural road network vulnerability analysis framework. Three aspects of the framework are mainly described: (i the rationality of non-structural road network vulnerability, (ii the metrics for negative consequences accounting for variant road conditions, and (iii the introduction of a new vulnerability index based on user exposure. Based on the proposed methodology, a case study in the Sioux Falls network which was usually threatened by regular heavy snow during wintertime is detailedly discussed. The vulnerability ranking of links of Sioux Falls network with respect to heavy snow scenario is identified. As a result of non-structural consequences accompanied by conceivable degeneration of network, there are significant increases in generalized travel time costs which are measurements for "emotionally hurt" of topological road network.
Full Text Available The distribution automation system (DAS is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: terminal device level and control center server level. Then, the attack process is modeled based on game theory and the relationships among different vulnerabilities are analyzed by introducing a vulnerability adjacency matrix. Finally, the application process of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study based on bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS. The results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Full Text Available Supply chain vulnerability identification and evaluation are extremely important to mitigate the supply chain risk. We present an integrated method to assess the supply chain vulnerability. The potential failure mode of the supply chain vulnerability is analyzed through the SCOR model. Combining the fuzzy theory and the gray theory, the correlation degree of each vulnerability indicator can be calculated and the target improvements can be carried out. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we use Kendall’s tau coefficient to measure the effect of different methods. The result shows that the presented method has the highest consistency in the assessment compared with the other two methods.
Sharma, Muskan; Prabha, Chander
As MANET is a mobile network, nodes are free to move, so it’s more prone to attacks. Attacks might be active or passive. Passive attacks listen to message transmission and obtain the secret information where as active attacks are able to change the transmission data. Active attacks involve message replay, fraud counterfeiting, message tempering, and denial of service. Security is the main concern in MANET. Here we are discussing on the MANET attacks and how security needed in MANET. Security ...
Natural disasters such as a hurricane can cause great damages to the transportation networks and significantly affect the evacuation trip operations. An accurate understanding and measurement of the network vulnerability can enhance the evacuees p...
Panayiotou, C.G., "Perturbation Analysis of a Multiclass Stochastic Fluid Model with Finite Buffer Capacity ", Proc. of 41st IEEE Conf. Decision and...October 2002. 3. Sun, G., Cassandras, C.G., and Panayiotou, C.G., "Perturbation Analysis of a Multiclass Stochastic Fluid Model with Finite Buffer ... Capacity ", Proc. of 41st IEEE Conf. Decision and Control, pp. 2171-2176, Dec. 2002. 4. Cassandras, C.G., and Mookherjee, R., "Receding Horizon Control
Fang, Jiakun; Su, Chi; Chen, Zhe
(PCA) and convex hull. Then the second step is to use an improved maximum flow based complex network approach for topology analysis. Weighted vertices in the network are considered, enabling taking the selected operating conditions into consideration when identifying the vulnerable lines. The proposed......With the increasing complexity of the power grid and the concerns on major blackouts, there is an urgent need for an efficient and effective tool to assess the power system structural vulnerability. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes a maximum flow based complex network approach...... to identify the critical lines in a system. The proposed method consists of two major steps. First, the power network is modeled as a graph with edges (transmission lines, transformers, etc.) and nodes (buses, substations, etc.). The critical scenarios are identified by using the principal component analysis...
Taramelli, A.; Valentini, E.; Filipponi, F.; Nguyen Xuan, A.; Arosio, M.
Marine drivers such as surge in the context of SLR, are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assesment, management and planning (e.g. the role of dune ridges in surge mitigation and climate adaptation) can enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing the vulnerability is a key concern of many SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables, etc.. To this end it is unclear how SLR, subsidence and erosion might affect coastal subsistence resources because of highly complex interactions and because of the subjective system of weighting many variables and their interaction within the systems. In this contribution, making the best use of many EO products, in situ data and modelling, we propose a multidimensional surge vulnerability assessment that aims at combining together geophysical and socioeconomic variable on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian approach. The final goal is providing insight in understanding how to quantify regulating ecosystem services.
Vulnerability risk assessment is a crucial process in security management, and the CVSS score is the standard-de-facto risk metric for software vulnerabilities. In this manuscript I show that current risk assessment methodologies do not fit real “in the wild” attack data. I also present my three-steps plan to identify an Internet-scale risk assessment methodology that accounts for attacker economics and opportunities. Eventually, I want to provide answers like the following: “If we depl...
vulnerability and disaster risk management approaches; Linkov et al., 2014, argue for integration of risk analysis into resilience planning; Larkin et al...FINAL REPORT Understanding Data Needs for Vulnerability Assessment and Decision Making to Manage Vulnerability of Department of Defense...2. REPORT TYPE Final Technical Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 5/17/2012 to 9/30/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Vulnerability of DoD
Scholliers, J.; Noort, M. van; Johansson, C.; Mans, D.; Silla, A.; Bell, D.; Hancox, G.; Leden, L.; Giannelos, I.; Bax, B.; Malone, K.
The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology
Scholliers, J. Noort, M. van Johansson, C. Mans, D. Silla, A. Bell, D. Hancox, G. Leden, L. Giannelos, I. Bax, B. & Malone, K.
The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology
Ek, David R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.
Oct 19, 2017 ... Background: Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived ...
Burkart, M.R.; Kolpin, D.W.; James, D.E.
Agrichemicals (herbicides and nitrate) are significant sources of diffuse pollution to groundwater. Indirect methods are needed to assess the potential for groundwater contamination by diffuse sources because groundwater monitoring is too costly to adequately define the geographic extent of contamination at a regional or national scale. This paper presents examples of the application of statistical, overlay and index, and process-based modeling methods for groundwater vulnerability assessments to a variety of data from the Midwest U.S. The principles for vulnerability assessment include both intrinsic (pedologic, climatologic, and hydrogeologic factors) and specific (contaminant and other anthropogenic factors) vulnerability of a location. Statistical methods use the frequency of contaminant occurrence, contaminant concentration, or contamination probability as a response variable. Statistical assessments are useful for defining the relations among explanatory and response variables whether they define intrinsic or specific vulnerability. Multivariate statistical analyses are useful for ranking variables critical to estimating water quality responses of interest. Overlay and index methods involve intersecting maps of intrinsic and specific vulnerability properties and indexing the variables by applying appropriate weights. Deterministic models use process-based equations to simulate contaminant transport and are distinguished from the other methods in their potential to predict contaminant transport in both space and time. An example of a one-dimensional leaching model linked to a geographic information system (GIS) to define a regional metamodel for contamination in the Midwest is included.
Full Text Available Environmental tracers are physical properties and chemical components of water whose spatial and temporal differentiation is used to infer information on the pathways and dynamics of water and solutes movement through the environment. The quantitative and qualitative insights into the functioning of groundwater systems derived from tracer observations is useful for the physically based and operational assessments of vulnerability of groundwater quality to human pressures. This tracer-based information concerns identification of the hydraulic connections between the source areas of pollution and groundwater receptors and evaluation of the ability of the unsaturated and saturated zones to delay and attenuate spreading of pollutants. Particularly important are distributions of water transit times which can be inferred from tracer observations by use of the lumped parameter models. The transit time distributions contain information on the lag-times, attenuation and persistence of pollutants in groundwater systems and are a basis for designing various indexes of vulnerability. Despite the advantages of environmental tracers in vulnerability assessment and despite the advances in analytical techniques application of tracers in this field is limited. This work presents the understanding of groundwater vulnerability in the context of risk assessments, explains the basic concepts of the application of the environmental tracers, discusses potential applications of tracers in assessing the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability and briefly presents examples of such applications.
Full Text Available Cities and towns are faced with various types of threat from the extraordinary events involving chemical and radiological materials as exemplified by major chemical accidents, radiological incidents, fires, explosions, traffic accidents, terrorist attacks, etc. On the other hand, many sensitive or vulnerable assets exist within cities, such as: settlements, infrastructures, hospitals, schools, churches, businesses, government, and others. Besides emergency planning, the land use planning also represents an important tool for prevention or reduction of damages on people and other assets due to unwanted events. This paper considers development of method for inclusion vulnerability assessment in land use planning with objective to assess and limit the consequences in cities of likely accidents involving hazardous materials. We made preliminary assessment of criticality and vulnerability of the assets within Belgrade city area in respect to chemical sites and transportation roads that can be exposed to chemical accidents, or terrorist attacks.
Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia
Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with
Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.
Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.
Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon
Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss
Angeler, David G; Allen, Craig R; Birgé, Hannah E; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G; Johnson, Richard K
Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.
Full Text Available With the consideration of randomness of distributed generations and loads, this paper has proposed a method for vulnerability assessment of microgrids based on complex network theory and entropy theory, which can explain the influence of the inherent structure characteristics and system internal energy distribution on the microgrid. The vulnerability assessment index is built, and the on-line reconfiguration model considering the vulnerability assessment of microgrid is also established. An improved cellular bat algorithm is tested on the CERTS system to implement the real time reconfiguration fast and accurately to provide the basis of theory and practice.
Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan
Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.
ManiMurali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.
vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP...
flooding. The paper also recommended the monitoring by authorities, of water levels during the raining season, thereby allowing for the transmission of warning signals to the residents of the flood plains. Key words: Drainage channel, flood, risk assessment, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION. Natural disasters have been a ...
Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam Solid Waste Management for Improvement: Kinondoni Municipality Case. ... Thus, questionnaires and in-depth study were interchangeably employed to probe different stakeholder institutions involved in decentralized MSWM system on general performance in ...
Assessment of climate change and vulnerability of coastal zone of Ghana using trends in temperature and rainfall. A Ayensu. Abstract. No Abstract. Journal of Applied Science & Technology Vol 9 (1&2) 2004: 21-27. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.
Groundwater vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are susceptible to contamination from mining and anthropogenic activities has become an important element for resource management and landuse planning. In view of the extensive mining in the Tarkwa area, quality of groundwater has become an important ...
Jun 1, 2017 ... Groundwater vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are susceptible to contamination from mining and anthropogenic activities has become an important element for resource management and landuse planning. In view of the extensive mining in the Tarkwa area, quality of groundwater has ...
Lokoja, the Kogi state capital, is located at the Niger-Benue confluence. Hazards erupt when human activities in the confluence area are not properly managed. This article uses the Remote Sensing and GIS technique to assess the flood vulnerability zones of the town using the bench mark minimum and maximum water ...
Feb 7, 2018 ... indicate that the bridge structures equipped with seismic isolation devices (e.g. LRBs) significantly mitigated the damages due to earthquakes. Keywords. Continuous steel box girder bridge; fragility curves; seismic vulnerability assessment; damage state; nonlinear dynamic analysis; lead rubber bearing. 1.
This paper examines, based on a review and synthesis of available material, the presently most applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches and the pros and cons of each method are evaluated in terms of both the conditions of their implementation and the result obtained. The paper ...
The estuarine islands within Indian Sundarban are extremely vulnerable due to climate change, erosion, flooding and increasing population pressure. Around 4.6 million people are living under constant threat of climatic shocks, affecting their farm based economy and dependency on forest resources for their livelihood. This paper attempts to focus on the dynamics of system's resilience in the backdrop of higher level of vulnerability. Globally the assessment of island vulnerability is generally more focused towards the climate change impacts, rather than taking into account other determining drivers with proper weightage. Three estuarine islands namely Sagar, Ghoramara and Mousani at the western part of Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD) have been chosen for this study to derive the indicator based scoring method using the household survey data from twenty seven (27) sampled `Mouza' (lowest administrative boundary; village) with cluster random sampling. Vulnerability and resilience of these islands have been calculated using the indicators like housing condition, electrification, population density, accretion, adult secondary education level, percentage of people `Below Poverty Line' (BPL) based on per capita income. Residual threats for these islands have been obtained by subtracting the score of resilience and vulnerability of the system. Result suggests that all these islands are in less resilient condition to combat the negative impact of the influencing factors. Sapkhali, Ghoramara, Bankimnagar, Shibpur and Baliara are becoming sensitive from excess residual threats. This study is an initiation for identifying the thrust areas need to address with effective policy adaptation, necessary to minimize the existing vulnerable conditions in these islands. Key words: Vulnerability, Resilience, Residual threat, Indian Sundarban
Pásztor, László; Laborczi, Annamária; Takács, Katalin; Szatmári, Gábor
information representing IEW or GRP forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced IEW frequency and measured GRP values respectively. An efficient spatial prediction methodology was applied to construct reliable maps, namely regression kriging (RK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use and climate. RK divides the spatial inference into two parts. Firstly the deterministic component of the target variable is determined by a regression model. The residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis represent the spatially varying but dependent stochastic component, which are interpolated by kriging. The final map is the sum of the two component predictions. Application of RK also provides the possibility of inherent accuracy assessment. The resulting maps are characterized by global and local measures of its accuracy. Additionally the method enables interval estimation for spatial extension of the areas of predefined risk categories. All of these outputs provide useful contribution to spatial planning, action planning and decision making. Acknowledgement: Our work was partly supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).
Full Text Available In the research on network security, distinguishing the vulnerable components of networks is very important for protecting infrastructures systems. Here, we probe how to identify the vulnerable nodes of complex networks in cascading failures, which was ignored before. Concerned with random attack (RA and highest load attack (HL on nodes, we model cascading dynamics of complex networks. Then, we introduce four kinds of weighting methods to characterize the nodes of networks including Barabási-Albert scale-free networks (SF, Watts-Strogatz small-world networks (WS, Erdos-Renyi random networks (ER, and two real-world networks. The simulations show that, for SF networks under HL attack, the nodes with small value of the fourth kind of weight are the most vulnerable and the ones with small value of the third weight are also vulnerable. Also, the real-world autonomous system with power-law distribution verifies these findings. Moreover, for WS and ER networks under both RA and HL attack, when the nodes have low tolerant ability, the ones with small value of the fourth kind of weight are more vulnerable and also the ones with high degree are easier to break down. The results give us important theoretical basis for digging the potential safety loophole and making protection strategy.
Sahoo, Satiprasad [School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Kar, Amlanjyoti [Central Ground Water Board, Bhujal Bhawan, Faridabad, Haryana (India)
Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.
Zabeo, A; Pizzol, L; Agostini, P; Critto, A; Giove, S; Marcomini, A
As highlighted in the EU Soil Communication, local contamination is one of the main soil threats and it is often related to present and past industrial activities which left a legacy of a high number of contaminated sites in Europe. These contaminated sites can be harmful to many different receptors according to their sensitivity/susceptibility to contamination, and specific vulnerability evaluations are needed in order to manage this widely spread environmental issue. In this paper a novel comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework to assess regional receptor susceptibility to contaminated site is presented. The developed methodology, which combines multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and spatial analysis, can be applied to different receptors recognized as relevant for regional assessment. In order to characterize each receptor, picked parameters significant for the estimation of the vulnerability to contaminated sites have been selected, normalized and aggregated by means of multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The developed MCDA methodology, based on the Choquet integral, allows to include expert judgments for the elicitation of synergic and conflicting effects between involved criteria and is applied to all the geographical objects representing the identified receptors. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a specific case study area in the upper Silesia region of Poland where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the environmental experts' expected results. The vulnerability assessment results indicate that groundwater is the most vulnerable receptor characterized by a wide area with vulnerability scores belonging to the highest vulnerability class. As far as the other receptors are concerned, human health and surface water are characterized by quite homogeneous vulnerability scores falling in the medium-high vulnerability classes, while protected areas resulted to be the less
As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A
Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blohm, Andrew [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, Alison [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Henriques, Justin J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, Elizabeth L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.
Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru
Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the
Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson
The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.
Gou, Li; Wei, Bo; Sadiq, Rehan; Sadiq, Yong; Deng, Yong
With an increasing emphasis on network security, much more attentions have been attracted to the vulnerability of complex networks. In this paper, the fractal dimension, which can reflect space-filling capacity of networks, is redefined as the origin moment of the edge betweenness to obtain a more reasonable evaluation of vulnerability. The proposed model combining multiple evaluation indexes not only overcomes the shortage of average edge betweenness’s failing to evaluate vulnerability of some special networks, but also characterizes the topological structure and highlights the space-filling capacity of networks. The applications to six US airline networks illustrate the practicality and effectiveness of our proposed method, and the comparisons with three other commonly used methods further validate the superiority of our proposed method. PMID:26751371
Full Text Available The entire Himalayan range is highly prone to earthquake s and the latest Kashmir earthquake (October 08, 2005 has once again drawn our attention to the highly vulnerable Himalayan settlements. Narcndranagar block of the Himalayan state of Uttaranchal lies in seismic zone IV of the seismic zoning map of India. Like in other hilly areas Narendranagar block also witnessed the traditional practice of house construction being replaced by modern construction materials and practices without the knowledge of earthquake resistant techniques rendering the present buildings more vulnerable to earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to assess the vulnerability of the buildings so that corrective measures can be taken to minimize the destruction during future earthquakes. Types of buildings observed in the entire block with different combinations of materials and their earthquake behaviours are explained. The existing structures are grouped into vulnerability categories Vl , V2 and V3 as per the descriptions provided in the MSK (Medvedev - Sponheaer - Karnik Intensity Scale. Damage estimation for a hypothetical earthquake is carried out for the Narcndranagar block. Conclusions and recommendations suggesting use of such studies in all earth quake prone areas of the Trans Himalayan region arc provided.
Liang, Ching-Ping; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Cheng-Wei; Chen, Jui-Sheng
In the Pingtung Plain of southern Taiwan, elevated levels of NO₃(-)-N in groundwater have been reported. Therefore, efforts for assessing groundwater vulnerability are required as part of the critical steps to prevent and control groundwater pollution. This study makes a groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Pingtung Plain using an improved overlay and index-based DRASTIC model. The improvement of the DRASTIC model is achieved by reassigning the weighting coefficients of the factors in this model with the help of a discriminant analysis statistical method. The analytical results obtained from the improved DRASTIC model provide a reliable prediction for use in groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate pollution and can correctly identify the groundwater protection zones in the Pingtung Plain. Moreover, the results of the sensitivity analysis conducted for the seven parameters in the improved DRASTIC model demonstrate that the aquifer media (A) is the most sensitive factor when the nitrate-N concentration is below 2.5 mg/L. For the cases where the nitrate-N concentration is above 2.5 mg/L, the aquifer media (A) and net recharge (R) are the two most important factors.
Full Text Available Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS. The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1 to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2 to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3 as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4 as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and
Sorichetta, Alessandro; Ballabio, Cristiano; Masetti, Marco; Robinson, Gilpin R; Sterlacchini, Simone
Increasing availability of geo-environmental data has promoted the use of statistical methods to assess groundwater vulnerability. Nitrate is a widespread anthropogenic contaminant in groundwater and its occurrence can be used to identify aquifer settings vulnerable to contamination. In this study, multivariate Weights of Evidence (WofE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods, where the response variable is binary, were used to evaluate the role and importance of a number of explanatory variables associated with nitrate sources and occurrence in groundwater in the Milan District (central part of the Po Plain, Italy). The results of these models have been used to map the spatial variation of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate in the region, and we compare the similarities and differences of their spatial patterns and associated explanatory variables. We modify the standard WofE method used in previous groundwater vulnerability studies to a form analogous to that used in LR; this provides a framework to compare the results of both models and reduces the effect of sampling bias on the results of the standard WofE model. In addition, a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model has been used to extend the LR analysis. Both approaches improved discrimination of the standard WofE and LR models, as measured by the c-statistic. Groundwater vulnerability probability outputs, based on rank-order classification of the respective model results, were similar in spatial patterns and identified similar strong explanatory variables associated with nitrate source (population density as a proxy for sewage systems and septic sources) and nitrate occurrence (groundwater depth). © 2013, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2013, National Ground Water Association.
Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.
Journal of Computer Science and Its Application ... The paper investigated sources of threats and vulnerabilities to Nigerian university computer networks and assessed the adequacy of security controls in place to ... This was with a view to enhancing the integrity of data transactions on the Universities' computer networks.
Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer
Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their
Ting Li; Xin Li
Evaluation of e-commerce network security is based on assessment method Bayesian networks, and it first defines the vulnerability status of e-commerce system evaluation index and the vulnerability of the state model of e-commerce systems, and after the principle of the Bayesian network reliability of e-commerce system and the criticality of the vulnerabilities were analyzed, experiments show that the change method is a good evaluation of the security of e-commerce systems.
Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.
Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.
Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana
Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess
Full Text Available Val66Met, a naturally occurring polymorphism in the human brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF gene resulting in a valine (Val to methionine (Met substitution at codon 66, plays an important role in neuroplasticity. While the effect of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on local brain structures has previously been examined, its impact on the configuration of the graph-based white matter structural networks is yet to be investigated. In the current study, we assessed the effect of the BDNF polymorphism on the network properties and robustness of the graph-based white matter structural networks. Graph theory was employed to investigate the structural connectivity derived from white matter tractography in two groups, Val homozygotes (n = 18 and Met-allele carriers (n = 55. Although there were no differences in the global network measures including global efficiency, local efficiency, and modularity between the two genotype groups, we found the effect of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on the robustness properties of the white matter structural networks. Specifically, the white matter structural networks of the Met-allele carrier group showed higher vulnerability to targeted removal of central nodes as compared with those of the Val homozygote group. These findings suggest that the central role of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism in regards to neuroplasticity may be associated with inherent differences in the robustness of the white matter structural network according to the genetic variants. Furthermore, greater susceptibility to brain disorders in Met-allele carriers may be understood as being due to their limited stability in white matter structural connectivity.
Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.
Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest
Wen, Shameng; Meng, Qingkun; Feng, Chao; Tang, Chaojing
Network protocol vulnerability detection plays an important role in many domains, including protocol security analysis, application security, and network intrusion detection. In this study, by analyzing the general fuzzing method of network protocols, we propose a novel approach that combines network traffic analysis with the binary reverse engineering method. For network traffic analysis, the block-based protocol description language is introduced to construct test scripts, while the binary reverse engineering method employs the genetic algorithm with a fitness function designed to focus on code coverage. This combination leads to a substantial improvement in fuzz testing for network protocols. We build a prototype system and use it to test several real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results show that the proposed approach detects vulnerabilities more efficiently and effectively than general fuzzing methods such as SPIKE.
Full Text Available Network protocol vulnerability detection plays an important role in many domains, including protocol security analysis, application security, and network intrusion detection. In this study, by analyzing the general fuzzing method of network protocols, we propose a novel approach that combines network traffic analysis with the binary reverse engineering method. For network traffic analysis, the block-based protocol description language is introduced to construct test scripts, while the binary reverse engineering method employs the genetic algorithm with a fitness function designed to focus on code coverage. This combination leads to a substantial improvement in fuzz testing for network protocols. We build a prototype system and use it to test several real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results show that the proposed approach detects vulnerabilities more efficiently and effectively than general fuzzing methods such as SPIKE.
Moran, J E; Hudson, G B; Eaton, G F; Leif, R
In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MtBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Ambient Groundwater Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement the groundwater assessment program in cooperation with local water purveyors. In 2001 and 2002, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basin of Sacramento suburban area, located to the north of the American River and to the east of the Sacramento River. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3
...-0701] Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices AGENCY...-day public comment period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment... utilities to assess their vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the...
... AGENCY Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach... period for the draft documents titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready... Partnership (EPA/600/R-11/ 058a) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries...
Meyer, Nele Kristin; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Korup, Oliver
Norwegian's road network is frequently affected by debris flows. Both damage repair and traffic interruption generate high economic losses and necessitate a rigorous assessment of where losses are expected to be high and where preventive measures should be focused on. In recent studies, we have developed susceptibility and trigger probability maps that serve as input into a hazard calculation at the scale of first-order watersheds. Here we combine these results with graph theory to assess the impact of debris flows on the road network of southern Norway. Susceptibility and trigger probability are aggregated for individual road sections to form a reliability index that relates to the failure probability of a link that connects two network vertices, e.g., road junctions. We define link vulnerability as a function of traffic volume and additional link failure distance. Additional link failure distance is the extra length of the alternative path connecting the two associated link vertices in case the network link fails and is calculated by a shortest-path algorithm. The product of network reliability and vulnerability indices represent the risk index. High risk indices identify critical links for the Norwegian road network and are investigated in more detail. Scenarios demonstrating the impact of single or multiple debris flow events are run for the most important routes between seven large cities in southern Norway. First results show that the reliability of the road network is lowest in the central and north-western part of the study area. Road network vulnerability is highest in the mountainous regions in central southern Norway where the road density is low and in the vicinity of cities where the traffic volume is large. The scenarios indicate that city connections that have their shortest path via routes crossing the central part of the study area have the highest risk of route failure.
Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander
Data on seismic vulnerability of existing building stock and other elements at risk are rather important for near real time earthquake loss estimations by global systems. These data together with information on regional peculiarities of seismic intensity attenuation and other factors contribute greatly to the reliability of strong event consequences estimated in emergency mode. There are different approaches for vulnerability functions' development and the empirical one is most often used. It is based on analysis of engineering consequences of past strong events when well documented descriptions of damage to different building types and other elements at risk are available for the earthquake prone area under consideration. In the case such data do not exist the information from macroseismic scales may be used. Any approach of vulnerability functions' development requires the proper classification of buildings and structures under consideration. According to national and international building codes, as well as macroseismic scales different buildings' classifications exist. As a result the global systems, such as Extremum and PAGER, as well as GEM project make use of the non-unified information on building stock distribution worldwide. The paper addresses the issues of buildings' classification and city models in terms of these classifications. Distribution of different buildings types in Extremum and PAGER/GEM systems is analyzed for earthquake prone countries. The comparison of city models revealed significant differences which influence greatly earthquake loss estimations in emergency mode. The paper describes the practice of city models' development which make use of space images and web technology in social networks. It is proposed to use the G8 country (and other) initiatives related to open data and transparency aimed at improving building stock distribution and global population databases.
The force of Earth's gravity field varies in proportion to the amount of mass near the surface. Spatial and temporal variations in the gravity field can be measured via their effects on the orbits of satellites. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is the first satellite mission dedicated to monitoring temporal variations in the gravity field. The monthly gravity anomaly maps that have been delivered by GRACE since 2002 are being used to infer changes in terrestrial water storage (the sum of groundwater, soil moisture, surface waters, and snow and ice), which are the primary source of gravity variability on monthly to decadal timescales after atmospheric and oceanic circulation effects have been removed. Other remote sensing techniques are unable to detect water below the first few centimeters of the land surface. Conventional ground based techniques can be used to monitor terrestrial water storage, but groundwater, soil moisture, and snow observation networks are sparse in most of the world, and the countries that do collect such data rarely are willing to share them. Thus GRACE is unique in its ability to provide global data on variations in the availability of fresh water, which is both vital to life on land and vulnerable to climate variability and mismanagement. This chapter describes the unique and challenging aspects of GRACE terrestrial water storage data, examples of how the data have been used for research and applications related to fresh water vulnerability and change, and prospects for continued contributions of satellite gravimetry to water resources science and policy.
Vida, Rafael; Galeano, Javier; Cuenda, Sara
Computer viruses are evolving by developing spreading mechanisms based on the use of multiple vectors of propagation. The use of the social network as an extra vector of attack to penetrate the security measures in IP networks is improving the effectiveness of malware, and have therefore been used by the most aggressive viruses, like Conficker and Stuxnet. In this work we use interdependent networks to model the propagation of these kind of viruses. In particular, we study the propagation of ...
Vida, Rafael; Cuenda, Sara
Computer viruses are evolving by developing spreading mechanisms based on the use of multiple vectors of propagation. The use of the social network as an extra vector of attack to penetrate the security measures in IP networks is improving the effectiveness of the malware, and have therefore been used by the most aggressive viruses, like Conficker and Stuxnet. In this work we use multi-layer networks to model the propagation of these kind of viruses. In particular, we study the propagation of a SIS model on a multi-layer network where the state of each node is layer-independent and the dynamics in each network follows either a contact process or a reactive process, with different propagation rates. We show that the interplay between the layers leads to a non-trivial dynamics, with an epidemic onset that may trigger before it triggers in each isolated network. We apply this study to the case of a real two-layer network: a Spanish scientific community of Statistical Physics, formed by a social network of scient...
Social network analysis is now widely used to investigate the dynamics of infectious disease spread from person to person. Vaccination dramatically disrupts the disease transmission process on a contact network, and indeed, sufficiently high vaccination rates can disrupt the process to such an extent that disease transmission on the network is effectively halted. Here, we build on mounting evidence that health behaviors - such as vaccination, and refusal thereof - can spread through social networks through a process of complex contagion that requires social reinforcement. Using network simulations that model both the health behavior and the infectious disease spread, we find that under otherwise identical conditions, the process by which the health behavior spreads has a very strong effect on disease outbreak dynamics. This variability in dynamics results from differences in the topology within susceptible communities that arise during the health behavior spreading process, which in turn depends on the topolo...
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3-4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm. We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2. These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2. Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management.
Balica, S.F.; Wright, N.G.; Van der Meulen, F.
Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical
Viljoen, Nadia M.; Joubert, Johan W.
Using complex network theory to describe the relational geography of maritime networks has provided great insights regarding their hierarchy and evolution over the past two decades. Unlike applications in other transport fields, notably air transport, complex network theory has had limited application in studying the vulnerability of maritime networks. This study uses targeted link disruption to investigate the strategy specific vulnerability of the network. Although nodal infrastructure such as ports can render a network vulnerable as a result of labour strikes, trade embargoes or natural disasters, it is the shipping lines connecting the ports that are more probably disrupted, either from within the industry, or outside. In this paper, we apply and evaluate two link-based disruption strategies on the global container shipping network, one based on link betweenness, and the other on link salience, to emulate the impact of large-scale service reconfiguration affecting priority links. The results show that the network is by and large robust to such reconfiguration. Meanwhile the flexibility of the network is reduced by both strategies, but to a greater degree by betweenness, resulting in a reduction of transshipment and dynamic rerouting potential amongst the busiest port regions. The results further show that the salience strategy is highly effective in reducing the commonality of shortest path sets, thereby diminishing opportunities for freight consolidation and scale economies.
Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Khatibi, Rahman; Moghaddam, Asghar Asghari
Vulnerability indices of an aquifer assessed by different fuzzy logic (FL) models often give rise to differing values with no theoretical or empirical basis to establish a validated baseline or to develop a comparison basis between the modeling results and baselines, if any. Therefore, this research presents a supervised committee fuzzy logic (SCFL) method, which uses artificial neural networks to overarch and combine a selection of FL models. The indices are expressed by the widely used DRASTIC framework, which include geological, hydrological, and hydrogeological parameters often subject to uncertainty. DRASTIC indices represent collectively intrinsic (or natural) vulnerability and give a sense of contaminants, such as nitrate-N, percolating to aquifers from the surface. The study area is an aquifer in Ardabil plain, the province of Ardabil, northwest Iran. Improvements on vulnerability indices are achieved by FL techniques, which comprise Sugeno fuzzy logic (SFL), Mamdani fuzzy logic (MFL), and Larsen fuzzy logic (LFL). As the correlation between estimated DRASTIC vulnerability index values and nitrate-N values is as low as 0.4, it is improved significantly by FL models (SFL, MFL, and LFL), which perform in similar ways but have differences. Their synergy is exploited by SCFL and uses the FL modeling results "conditioned" by nitrate-N values to raise their correlation to higher than 0.9.
Ozunu, Al.; Botezan, C.
Vulnerability assessment is influenced by a number of factors, including risk perception. This paper investigates the vulnerability of people living in the middle basin of the Aries river region, a former mining area, to natural and technologic hazards. The mining industry lead to significant environmental changes, which combined with the social problems caused by its decline (high unemployment rate, low income and old age) raised the level of the vulnerability in the area. This case study is unique, as it includes an evaluation of risk perception and its influence on the social vulnerability and resilience of local communities to disasters. Key words: vulnerability assessment, natural hazards, social vulnerability, risk perception
Furness, Robert W; Wade, Helen M; Masden, Elizabeth A
Offshore wind farms may affect bird populations through collision mortality and displacement. Given the pressures to develop offshore wind farms, there is an urgent need to assess population-level impacts on protected marine birds. Here we refine an approach to assess aspects of their ecology that influence population vulnerability to wind farm impacts, also taking into account the conservation importance of each species. Flight height appears to be a key factor influencing collision mortality risk but improved data on flight heights of marine birds are needed. Collision index calculations identify populations of gulls, white-tailed eagles, northern gannets and skuas as of particularly high concern in Scottish waters. Displacement index calculations identify populations of divers and common scoters as most vulnerable to population-level impacts of displacement, but these are likely to be less evident than impacts of collision mortality. The collision and displacement indices developed here for Scottish marine bird populations could be applied to populations elsewhere, and this approach will help in identifying likely impacts of future offshore wind farms on marine birds and prioritising monitoring programmes, at least until data on macro-avoidance rates become available. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available This paper proposes an efficient approach for transmission network expansion planning. Three indicators are proposed to evaluate the planning, which is the power grid vulnerability, wind power accommodation and operation cost. Vulnerability is evaluated based on the complex network theory, and wind power accommodation analysis is performed by the rate of abandoned wind power. The optimization of transmission network expansion planning is translated into constraints multi-objective optimization problem. A novel QS-MOWE algorithm based on the improvement quick sort and NSGA-II algorithm has been proposed. The method can be used effectively to study the effect of increasing wind power integration and vulnerability with high wind generation uncertainties. The model and algorithms are applied to calculate a case of 6 units. The results show that the proposed modeling method can provide a useful guidance for planning problems.
Panthi, J., Sr.
Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.
Ling Cai; Li Yan; Jialin Ni; Cui Wang
Using the constituent elements of vulnerability, an evaluation index system for the ecological vulnerability of coastal areas under oil spill stress is established based on "Sensitivity-Adaptive Capacity-Exposure...
Veltman, M.; Parker, R.L.
All Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems have vulnerabilities. Weaknesses in these systems are introduced either during the specification, implementation or operational phase. Leaving aside these introduced vulnerabilities are intentional or unintentional, the fact remains that
Mohammad, Q. A.; Kervyn, M.; Khan, A. U.
Cyclone, storm surge, coastal flooding, salinity intrusion, tornado, nor'wester, and thunderstorms are the listed natural hazards in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh was hit by devastating cyclones in 1970, 1991, 2007, 2009, and 2016. Intensity and frequency of natural hazards in the coastal area are likely to increase in future due to climate change. Risk assessment is one of the most important steps of disaster risk reduction. As a climate change victim nation, Bangladesh claims compensation from green climate fund. It also created its own climate funds. It is therefore very important to assess vulnerability of the coast of Bangladesh to natural hazards for efficient allocation of financial investment to support the national risk reduction. This study aims at identifying the spatial variations in factors contributing to vulnerability of the coastal inhabitants of Bangladesh to natural hazards. An exploratory factor analysis method has been used to assess the vulnerability at each local administrative unit. The 141 initially selected 141 socio-economic indicators were reduced to 41 by converting some of them to meaningful widely accepted indicators and removing highly correlated indicators. Principle component analysis further reduced 41 indicators to 13 dimensions which explained 79% of total variation. PCA dimensions show three types of characteristics of the people that may lead people towards vulnerability. They are (a) demographic, education and job opportunities, (b) access to basic needs and facilities, and (c) special needs people. Vulnerability maps of the study area has been prepared by weighted overlay of the dimensions. Study revealed that 29 and 8 percent of total coastal area are very high and high vulnerable to natural hazards respectively. These are distributed along sea boundary and major rivers. Comparison of this spatial distribution with the capacities to face disaster show that highly vulnerable areas are well covered by cyclone
Harro, Jaanus; Kanarik, Margus; Kaart, Tanel; Matrov, Denis; Kõiv, Kadri; Mällo, Tanel; Del Río, Joaquin; Tordera, Rosa M; Ramirez, Maria J
The large variety of available animal models has revealed much on the neurobiology of depression, but each model appears as specific to a significant extent, and distinction between stress response, pathogenesis of depression and underlying vulnerability is difficult to make. Evidence from epidemiological studies suggests that depression occurs in biologically predisposed subjects under impact of adverse life events. We applied the diathesis-stress concept to reveal brain regions and functional networks that mediate vulnerability to depression and response to chronic stress by collapsing data on cerebral long term neuronal activity as measured by cytochrome c oxidase histochemistry in distinct animal models. Rats were rendered vulnerable to depression either by partial serotonergic lesion or by maternal deprivation, or selected for a vulnerable phenotype (low positive affect, low novelty-related activity or high hedonic response). Environmental adversity was brought about by applying chronic variable stress or chronic social defeat. Several brain regions, most significantly median raphe, habenula, retrosplenial cortex and reticular thalamus, were universally implicated in long-term metabolic stress response, vulnerability to depression, or both. Vulnerability was associated with higher oxidative metabolism levels as compared to resilience to chronic stress. Chronic stress, in contrast, had three distinct patterns of effect on oxidative metabolism in vulnerable vs. resilient animals. In general, associations between regional activities in several brain circuits were strongest in vulnerable animals, and chronic stress disrupted this interrelatedness. These findings highlight networks that underlie resilience to stress, and the distinct response to stress that occurs in vulnerable subjects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.
With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.
Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao
Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
With the continuous development of network technology and the rapid spread of the Internet, computer networks have been around the world every corner. However, the network attacks frequently occur. The ARP protocol vulnerability is one of the most common vulnerabilities in the TCP / IP four-layer architecture. The network protocol vulnerabilities can lead to the intrusion and attack of the information system, and disable or disable the normal defense function of the system . At present, ARP spoofing Trojans spread widely in the LAN, the network security to run a huge hidden danger, is the primary threat to LAN security. In this paper, the author summarizes the research status and the key technologies involved in ARP protocol, analyzes the formation mechanism of ARP protocol vulnerability, and analyzes the feasibility of the attack technique. Based on the summary of the common defensive methods, the advantages and disadvantages of each defense method. At the same time, the current defense method is improved, and the advantage of the improved defense algorithm is given. At the end of this paper, the appropriate test method is selected and the test environment is set up. Experiment and test are carried out for each proposed improved defense algorithm.
Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott
Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.
Oksana N. Lipka
Full Text Available Climate change impacts in Russia's territory make species and ecosystems conservation in Protected Areas a more difficult challenge. Additional adaptation measures are required. Before they are developed, it is important to assess the vulnerability of a territory: what exactly, and to which extent, is exposed to adverse climate impacts? The accomplished research will help develop an action plan consistent with the current unstable climate and extreme weather events, as well as with projections by the leading research institutions of Roshydromet and the Russian Academy of Science. Today, methodologies have been developed and successfully tested for some natural zones. The conservation science is now facing a new challenge: how to combine collected information with climate projections and identify development perspectives for concrete territories.
Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso
Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.
Moipone M. Letsie
Full Text Available Lesotho's landlocked mountainous setting with thin regolith cover and poor economic situation make it vulnerable to hazardous events associated with climate such as drought, floods, strong winds, heavy snowfall, and severe frost. To date, no quantitatively based vulnerability assessment has been undertaken in this heavily populated, developing region in southern Africa. The primary aim of this study was to assess social vulnerability of communities to natural hazards by applying a place-based social vulnerability index developed for the United States, to the Lesotho context. The study used 2006 Lesotho census data, district government records, and household interviews to identify 27 indicators of social vulnerability in southern Lesotho, and then used principal components analysis to generate a social vulnerability index for the study region. Index scores were summed and then mapped to quantify spatial variability in social vulnerability. The study results show a clustering of highly vulnerable communities in the rural highlands as a result of underdevelopment, poverty, and inaccessibility.
Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S
A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke
Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...
M. C. de Ruiter
Full Text Available In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.
de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.
Naik, Aanand D; Kunik, Mark E; Cassidy, Kristin R; Nair, Jeethy; Coverdale, John
The objectives of this study were to describe social services and health professionals' perceptions of vulnerability among older adults living in the community and to elicit how these professionals screen vulnerability in community and in-home settings. Focus group sessions were conducted and analyzed using standardized methods of qualitative analysis. Participants included social services and health professionals (n = 45) who routinely encounter vulnerable older adults. Four themes characterized vulnerability: the inability to perform activities of daily living, lack of social support, sociodemographic factors, and neuropsychiatric conditions. When screening older adults, participants reported evaluating basic cognitive abilities, decision-making processes, and the capacity to adequately plan and safely perform everyday tasks. Participants stated that screening is best performed by an interdisciplinary team in the home setting and preferably on more than one occasion. Social services and health professionals in this study described routinely screening for vulnerability in community-living older adults using a multidomain approach. These professionals endorse the use of assessments that screen an older adult's cognitive and functional capacities for safe and independent living. Further research is needed that integrates routine screening for vulnerability by community social services professionals with the assessments and interventions conducted by primary care physicians.
Full Text Available The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability.
This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency.
This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases:
1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard;
2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system;
3. the definition of the
Nogal, M.; Morales Napoles, O.; O'Connor, Alan
There is a lack of consensus in relation to the operationality of important concepts and descriptors of traffic networks such as resilience and vulnerability. With the aim of determining a framework with mathematical sound to objectively define and delimit these concepts, the expert judgment
Nath, S. K.; Adhikari, M. D.; Devaraj, N.; Maiti, S. K.
The city of Kolkata is one of the most urbanized and densely populated regions in the world and a major industrial and commercial hub of the eastern and northeastern region of India. In order to classify the seismic risk zones of Kolkata we used seismic hazard exposures on the vulnerability components, namely land use/land cover, population density, building typology, age and height. We microzoned seismic hazard of the city by integrating seismological, geological and geotechnical themes in GIS, which in turn are integrated with the vulnerability components in a logic-tree framework for the estimation of both the socioeconomic and structural risk of the city. In both the risk maps, three broad zones have been demarcated as "severe", "high" and "moderate". There had also been a risk-free zone in the city that is termed as "low". The damage distribution in the city due to the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake of Mw = 8.1 matches satisfactorily well with the demarcated risk regime. The design horizontal seismic coefficients for the city have been worked out for all the fundamental periods that indicate suitability for "A", "B" and "C" type of structures. The cumulative damage probabilities in terms of "none", "slight", "moderate", "extensive" and "complete" have also been assessed for the predominantly four model building types viz. RM2L, RM2M, URML and URMM for each seismic structural risk zone in the city. Both the seismic hazard and risk maps are expected to play vital roles in the earthquake-inflicted disaster mitigation and management of the city of Kolkata.
Mogaji, K. A.
Producing a bias-free vulnerability assessment map model is significantly needed for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a GIS-based AHPDST vulnerability index model for producing groundwater vulnerability model map in the hard rock terrain, Nigeria by exploiting the potentials of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) data mining models. The acquired borehole and geophysical data in the study area were processed to derive five groundwater vulnerability conditioning factors (GVCFs), namely recharge rate, aquifer transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, transverse resistance and longitudinal conductance. The produced GVCFs' thematic maps were multi-criterially analyzed by employing the mechanisms of AHP and DST models to determine the normalized weight ( W) parameter for the GVCFs and mass function factors (MFFs) parameter for the GVCFs' thematic maps' class boundaries, respectively. Based on the application of the weighted linear average technique, the determined W and MFFs parameters were synthesized to develop groundwater vulnerability potential index (GVPI)-based AHPDST model algorithm. The developed model was applied to establish four GVPI mass/belief function indices. The estimates based on the applied GVPI belief function indices were processed in GIS environment to create prospective groundwater vulnerability potential index maps. The most representative of the resulting vulnerability maps (the GVPIBel map) was considered for producing the groundwater vulnerability potential zones (GVPZ) map for the area. The produced GVPZ map established 48 and 52% of the areal extent to be covered by the lows/moderate and highs vulnerable zones, respectively. The success and the prediction rates of the produced GVPZ map were determined using the relative operating characteristics technique to give 82.3 and 77.7%, respectively. The analyzed results reveal that the developed GVPI-based AHPDST model algorithm is
Nigeria is having about 17.5 million orphans and Ekiti State the study area contributes about 70,000. This may increase with the prevalence of HIV from one percent to 1.4 percent in the state. This study uses the Orphans Vulnerable Index and Child Status Index to identify and enrol Vulnerable Children (VC) in the two LGAs ...
Dec 12, 2017 ... and control of groundwater pollution in Zanjan. Therefore, research on groundwater vulnerability is essential to ensure groundwater quality and to achieve sustainability of groundwater resources. Vulnerability zoning the of the mentioned plain on nitrate ion as an contamination index from agricultural and ...
Sloat, Matthew R; Reeves, Gordon H; Christiansen, Kelly R
In rivers supporting Pacific salmon in southeast Alaska, USA, regional trends toward a warmer, wetter climate are predicted to increase mid- and late-21st-century mean annual flood size by 17% and 28%, respectively. Increased flood size could alter stream habitats used by Pacific salmon for reproduction, with negative consequences for the substantial economic, cultural, and ecosystem services these fish provide. We combined field measurements and model simulations to estimate the potential influence of future flood disturbance on geomorphic processes controlling the quality and extent of coho, chum, and pink salmon spawning habitat in over 800 southeast Alaska watersheds. Spawning habitat responses varied widely across watersheds and among salmon species. Little variation among watersheds in potential spawning habitat change was explained by predicted increases in mean annual flood size. Watershed response diversity was mediated primarily by topographic controls on stream channel confinement, reach-scale geomorphic associations with spawning habitat preferences, and complexity in the pace and mode of geomorphic channel responses to altered flood size. Potential spawning habitat loss was highest for coho salmon, which spawn over a wide range of geomorphic settings, including steeper, confined stream reaches that are more susceptible to streambed scour during high flows. We estimated that 9-10% and 13-16% of the spawning habitat for coho salmon could be lost by the 2040s and 2080s, respectively, with losses occurring primarily in confined, higher-gradient streams that provide only moderate-quality habitat. Estimated effects were lower for pink and chum salmon, which primarily spawn in unconfined floodplain streams. Our results illustrate the importance of accounting for valley and reach-scale geomorphic features in watershed assessments of climate vulnerability, especially in topographically complex regions. Failure to consider the geomorphic context of stream
de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen
In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators
Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A
Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.
Gober, Patricia; Kirkwood, Craig W
Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model, WaterSim, is used to explore future water-shortage conditions in Phoenix. Results indicate that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030, even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Challenging but feasible changes in lifestyle and slower rates of population growth would allow the region to avoid shortage conditions and achieve groundwater sustainability under all but the most dire climate scenarios. Changes in lifestyle involve more native desert landscaping and fewer pools in addition to slower growth and higher urban densities. There is not a single most likely or optimal future for Phoenix. Urban climate adaptation involves using science-based models to anticipate water shortage and manage climate risk.
Anandhi, A.; Bailey, N.; Thomas, M.; Bartnick, B.
The overall goal of this study is to better understand the connectedness between Best management practices (BMPs) and vulnerability assessments (VA) in a changing landuse. Developing this connectedness will help understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity important for ecosystem sustainability. BMPs are practical management practices or systems designed and installed in watersheds to provide a wide range of effects to protect or restore the physical, chemical, and biological condition of waterbodies (e.g. changing hydrology; improving vegetative habitat; mitigate adverse environmental change). VAs can be defined as "the degree to which the system is susceptible to and is unable to cope with adverse effects of change" and are often characterized as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. There are many variables and factors used in calculating the impact of BMPs and VAs. The event mean concentration or load (e.g. nutrient, sediment,) associated with the specific landuse is an important variable. There is much data that predicts the loads associated with the major landuses (urban, agricultural). Loads greatly vary with region; rainfall characteristics (e.g. rainfall intensity, rainfall frequency); soil characteristics (e.g. soil type, hydrologic soil groups); hydrologic characteristics (e.g. runoff potential). A concern also exists that possibly all of the variables associated with changes in an individual land use have not been identified and distinguished for their impact on land use. For example, the loads associated with a high density residential with much green space may be more similar to medium density than loads associated with high rise apartment buildings. Other factors may include age of construction, % of families with children, % of families with pets, level of transiency, and construction activity The objective of our study is to develop an initial framework using multiple variables and factors to represent the
Farris, Katheryn A.; Sullivan, John; Cybenko, George
Computer security vulnerabilities span across large, enterprise networks and have to be mitigated by security engineers on a routine basis. Presently, security engineers will assess their "risk posture" through quantifying the number of vulnerabilities with a high Common Vulnerability Severity Score (CVSS). Yet, little to no attention is given to the length of time by which vulnerabilities persist and survive on the network. In this paper, we review a novel approach to quantifying the length of time a vulnerability persists on the network, its time-to-death, and predictors of lower vulnerability survival rates. Our contribution is unique in that we apply the cox proportional hazards regression model to real data from an operational IT environment. This paper provides a mathematical overview of the theory behind survival analysis methods, a description of our vulnerability data, and an interpretation of the results.
Nelsensius Klau Fauk
Full Text Available The current study aimed to explore cultural and social network influence on HIV vulnerability among Men who have Sex with Men (MSM population in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. A qualitative inquiry employing in-depth one-on-one interviews was carried out with 24 MSM participants in July 2015. Data were analysed using a framework analysis and guided by the Social Networks Theory (SNT as a conceptual framework. Findings indicated that prohibitive cultural perspectives and norms against same-sex marriage made them to conceal their sexual orientation and thus secretively engaging in unprotected sex that increased their predisposition to HIV transmission. The prohibitive cultures were also instrumental in the formation of MSM sexual networks that provided supportive environment for HIV-risky sexual practices among network partners. These findings provide information that can be used to improve HIV/AIDS service practices and policies. However, further studies with large numbers of MSM would be needed to improve the understanding of other HIV vulnerability determinants, the unique needs of MSM, and what and how programs could be conducted to reduce HIV vulnerability among MSM population.
Fauk, Nelsensius Klau; Merry, Maria Silvia; Sigilipoe, Mitra Andhini; Putra, Sukma; Mwanri, Lillian
The current study aimed to explore cultural and social network influence on HIV vulnerability among Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) population in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. A qualitative inquiry employing in-depth one-on-one interviews was carried out with 24 MSM participants in July 2015. Data were analysed using a framework analysis and guided by the Social Networks Theory (SNT) as a conceptual framework. Findings indicated that prohibitive cultural perspectives and norms against same-sex marriage made them to conceal their sexual orientation and thus secretively engaging in unprotected sex that increased their predisposition to HIV transmission. The prohibitive cultures were also instrumental in the formation of MSM sexual networks that provided supportive environment for HIV-risky sexual practices among network partners. These findings provide information that can be used to improve HIV/AIDS service practices and policies. However, further studies with large numbers of MSM would be needed to improve the understanding of other HIV vulnerability determinants, the unique needs of MSM, and what and how programs could be conducted to reduce HIV vulnerability among MSM population.
Maria de Nazareth Rodrigues Malcher de Oliveira Silva
Full Text Available This manuscript presents an experience report with some activities that the Reference Center on Drugs and Associated Vulnerabilities - CRR, ‘Faculdade Ceilândia’/University of Brasilia - UNB implemented and developed in 2013. This account allows us to reflect on the process of building partnerships based on social networks and the notion of territory for people with problems related to drugs and their associated vulnerability. The experience follows the current national framework, in which the social network has become a central paradigm of public practices and policies (e.g. Law 10.216/2001. These changes occur in the model of care for people with mental disorders, including the integral health policy for users and dependents of alcohol and other drugs. The CRR team mapped local social networks, i.e. several public institutions in different sectors, in four municipalities: one in the Federal District (Brazlândia and three in the state of Goiás (Valparaiso, Luziânia, Águas Lindas. After the mapping, the CRR team sought to articulate and establish an agenda to discuss alcohol and drug use and its associated vulnerabilities among these different institutions, sectors and professionals, e.g. nurses, physicians, occupational therapists, social workers, and police officers. This strategy enabled several actors to develop and qualify their local intersectorial network, which consequently qualifies the integral care actions, as recommended by several national policies.
Moyle, Peter B.; Kiernan, Joseph D.; Crain, Patrick K.; Quiñones, Rebecca M.
Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions. PMID:23717503
Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina
Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.
Full Text Available Using the constituent elements of vulnerability, an evaluation index system for the ecological vulnerability of coastal areas under oil spill stress is established based on “Sensitivity–Adaptive Capacity-Exposure”. After selecting a gulf in China as the main case study in this work, the cluster analysis and reference method were applied in grading and value assigning for all indexes. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process and expert evaluation method were used to determine the index weighting. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation method was adopted in the evaluation studies on the ecological vulnerability of the gulf coastal zone under oil spill stress. Results show the differences between the gulf area and areas that belong to different ecologically-vulnerable areas under oil spill stress.
.... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...
Ling Cai; Li Yan; Jialin Ni; Cui Wang
Using the constituent elements of vulnerability, an evaluation index system for the ecological vulnerability of coastal areas under oil spill stress is established based on “Sensitivity–Adaptive Capacity-Exposure”. After selecting a gulf in China as the main case study in this work, the cluster analysis and reference method were applied in grading and value assigning for all indexes. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process and expert evaluation method were used to determine the index weig...
Peter L. Defur; Gary W. Evans; Elaine A. Cohen Hubal; Amy D. Kyle; Rachel A. Morello-Frosch; David R. Williams
... assessment literature. OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to examine the issue of vulnerability in cumulative risk assessment and present a conceptual framework rather than a comprehensive review of the literature. In this article we consider similarities between ecologic and human communities and the factors that make communities vulnerable to environmenta...
Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston
We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...
Reis,Dener Carlos dos; Almeida, Thiara Amanda Corrêa de; Miranda, Mariane Mendes; Alves, Rodrigo Henrique; Madeira, Anézia Moreira Faria
OBJECTIVE: to analyze the health vulnerabilities in adolescence associated with socioeconomic conditions, social networks, drugs and violence from the perspective of students. METHOD: cross-sectional study with 678 students between 14-15 years old in Contagem, Brazil. A self-administered questionnaire divided into modules by subject was used. Quantitative, descriptive and stratified analyses were performed by sex. RESULTS: high percentage of adolescents (40.4%) were beneficiaries of Gover...
Full Text Available Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed.
EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...
Gómez, José M; Verdú, Miguel
Epidemics can spread across large regions becoming pandemics by flowing along transportation and social networks. Two network attributes, transitivity (when a node is connected to two other nodes that are also directly connected between them) and centrality (the number and intensity of connections with the other nodes in the network), are widely associated with the dynamics of transmission of pathogens. Here we investigate how network centrality and transitivity influence vulnerability to diseases of human populations by examining one of the most devastating pandemic in human history, the fourteenth century plague pandemic called Black Death. We found that, after controlling for the city spatial location and the disease arrival time, cities with higher values of both centrality and transitivity were more severely affected by the plague. A simulation study indicates that this association was due to central cities with high transitivity undergo more exogenous re-infections. Our study provides an easy method to identify hotspots in epidemic networks. Focusing our effort in those vulnerable nodes may save time and resources by improving our ability of controlling deadly epidemics.
Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott
Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (systems at the national scale.
Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Herslund, Lise Byskov
The deliverable introduces a map of the vulnerability to flooding in Dar es Salaam at the resolution of the finest administrative level (the subward/mtaa; comprising approx. 5-15 000 residents). Overlaying a hydrological model, representing the areas of the city most likely to become flooded......, the high-risk areas may be identified. That is, where the flood-prone areas coincide with the highly vulnerable subwards. The deliverable explores in a step-by-step manner how to capture, measure and process spatial data of multiple dimensions and integrating them into a Geographical Information System...... (GIS). The overall approach is a spatial multiple criteria evaluation (S-MCE) process, following a series of steps, whereby the most important multi-dimensional indicators of vulnerability to flooding are selected, measured and analyzed. Eventually the output is presented as a product in one...
Rautureau, S; Dufour, B; Durand, B
Besides farming, trade of livestock is a major component of agricultural economy. However, the networks generated by live animal movements are the major support for the propagation of infectious agents between farms, and their structure strongly affects how fast a disease may spread. Structural characteristics may thus be indicators of network vulnerability to the spread of infectious disease. The method proposed here is based upon the analysis of specific subnetworks: the giant strongly connected components (GSCs). Their existence, size and geographic extent are used to assess network vulnerability. Their disappearance when targeted nodes are removed allows studying how network vulnerability may be controlled under emergency conditions. The method was applied to the cattle trade network in France, 2005. Giant strongly connected components were present and widely spread all over the country in yearly, monthly and weekly networks. Among several tested approaches, the most efficient way to make GSCs disappear was based on the ranking of nodes by decreasing betweenness centrality (the proportion of shortest paths between nodes on which a specific node lies). Giant strongly connected components disappearance was obtained after removal of emergency conditions, suspending animal trade activities in a small subset of holdings may thus allow to control the spread of an infectious disease through the animal trade network. Nodes representing markets and dealers were widely affected by these simulated control measures. This confirms their importance as 'hubs' for infectious diseases spread. Besides emergency conditions, specific sensitization and preventive measures should be dedicated to this population. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
Full Text Available The degree of social vulnerability may vary according to the conditions and backgrounds of different locations, yet spatial clustering phenomena may exist when nearby spatial units exhibit similar characteristics. This study applied spatial autocorrelation statistics to analyze the spatial association of vulnerability among townships in Taiwan. The vulnerability was first assessed on the basis of a social vulnerability index that was constructed using Fuzzy Delphi and analytic hierarchy process methods. Subsequently, the corresponding indicator variables were applied to calculate standardized vulnerability assessment scores by using government data. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment in which T scores were normalized, the distribution of social vulnerabilities varied among the townships. The scores were further analyzed using spatial autocorrelation statistics for spatial clustering of vulnerability distribution. The Local G statistic identified 42 significant spatial association pockets, whereas the Global G statistic indicated no spatial phenomenon of clustering. This phenomenon was verified and explained by applying Moran's I statistics to examine the homogeneity and heterogeneity of spatial associations. Although both statistics were originally designed to identify the existence of spatial clustering, they serve diverse purposes, and the results can be compared to obtain additional insights into the distribution patterns of social vulnerability.
Tamea, S.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.
In recent years, the international trade of food and agricultural commodities has undergone a marked increase of exchanged volumes and an expansion of the trade network. This globalization of trade has both positive and negative effects, but the interconnectedness and external dependency of countries generate complex dynamics which are often difficult to understand and model. In this study we consider the volume of water used for the production of agricultural commodities, virtually exchanged among countries through commodity trade, i.e. the virtual water trade. Then, we set up a parsimonious mechanistic model describing the propagation, into the global trade network, of food-production crises generated locally by a social, economic or environmental event (such as war, economic crisis, drought, pest). The model, accounting for the network structure and the virtual water balance of all countries, bases on rules derived from observed virtual water flows and on data-based and statistically verified assumption. It is also tested on real case studies that prove its capability to capture the main features of crises propagation. The model is then employed as the basis for the development of an index of country vulnerability, measuring the exposure of countries to crises propagating in the virtual water trade network. Results of the analysis are discussed within the context of socio-economic and environmental conditions of countries, showing that not only water-scarce, but also wealthy and globalized countries, are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis for the period 1986-2011 reveals that the global average vulnerability has strongly increased over time, confirming the increased exposure of countries to external crises which may occur in the virtual water trade network.
UNLIMITED 5 We spent much of the initial time learning about the logical model that modern HTML5 web browsers support, including how users interact with...are supposed to protect users of that site against cross-site scripting) and the new powerful an all-encompassing HTML5 standard. This vulnerability
Participants were asked to answer separately for children ages 5-12 and adolescents and young adults ages. 13-22. They were also asked about what would be the most effective interventions for helping different vulnerable groups of young people, including orphans, homeless children, former combatants and children of ...
Omira, R.; Baptista, M. V.; Miranda, M.; Catita, C.; Toto, E.
In this study we present a preliminary evaluation of the tsunami vulnerability of Casablanca area (Morocco) and the expected inundation from a tsunami generated in the North East Atlantic area in the Gulf of Cadiz using a combination of numerical modeling and GIS tools. The study area is the intensively occupied area of the Casablanca Harbor, a location that may be considered as one of the most vulnerable areas to tsunami hazard, along Morocco Atlantic coast, due to its location close to the source of moderate and strong magnitude earthquakes, the extension of low flat areas close to the sea and the existence of dwellings characterized by unstructured constructions. To study vulnerability and inundation we considered geomorphologic and artificial elements as well as the existence of defensive constructions. The inundation zone was divided in for sub-zones according to their height above sea level; the buildings were classed according to: building material, number of floors, conditions of foundation soil. The study area presents a large variety of constructions:1 storey buildings of 2- 2.5 m height, houses and stores of the ancient medina and some modern buildings. The results are presented, using GIS and show a preliminary "picture" of built stock behaviour in case of tsunami for Casablanca. The results clearly demonstrate that the vulnerability to tsunami impact is not uniform within the inundation zone. This work was developed in the framework of NEAREST and TRANSFER projects, EU.
Objective: The vulnerability of the elderly (65years and above) to nutritional risks is the main thrust of this paper. Subjects and methods: Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select a total of 600 subjects from eight communities in Umuahia North and Ikwuano Local Government Areas of Abia state.
Nicole M. Vaillant; Crystal A. Kolden; Alistair M. S. Smith
Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that...
Papakosta, Panagiota; Botzler, Sebastian; Krug, Kai; Straub, Daniel
areas and rare species is also included. Presence of cultural heritage sites, power stations and power line network influence social exposure. The conceptual framework is demonstrated with a Bayesian Network (BN). The BN model incorporates empirical observation, physical models and expert knowledge; it can also explicitly account for uncertainty in the indicators. The proposed model is applied to the island of Cyprus. Maps support the demonstration of results.  Keeley, J.E.; Bond, W.J.; Bradstock, R.A.; Pausas, J.G.; Rundel, P.W. (2012): Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems: ecology, evolution and management. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA.  UN/ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2004): Living with Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives, Geneva, UN Publications.  Birkmann, J. (2006): Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan.
... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...
Full Text Available An urban landslide vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed with major focus on considering urban social and economic aspects. The proposed methodology was developed based on the landslide susceptibility maps that Korean Forest Service utilizes to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R (flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a regional scale, and then urban vulnerability is assessed by two categories: physical and socioeconomic aspect. The physical vulnerability is related to buildings that can be impacted by a landslide event. This study considered two popular building structure types, reinforced-concrete frame and nonreinforced-concrete frame, to assess the physical vulnerability. The socioeconomic vulnerability is considered a function of the resistant levels of the vulnerable people, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illustrate the validity of the proposed methodology, physical and socioeconomic vulnerability levels are analyzed for Seoul, Korea, using the suggested approach. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.
de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
In a cross-discipline study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative
Naess, L.O. [Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo (Norway); Norland, I.T.; Lafferty, W.M. [University of Oslo, (Norway). Program for Research and Documentation for a Sustainable Society; Aall, C. [Western Norway Research Institute, Sogndal (Norway)
The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessment that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generated different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single 'correct' assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. (author)
Papathoma-Koehle, Maria; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven
Societies will have to live with changing environmental conditions and, therefore, they need to build resilience by reducing vulnerabilities to natural hazards. Successful implementation of strategies for disaster risk reduction requires the understanding and analysis of physical vulnerability and resilience of the built environment. The main objective of the presented research is the development of a methodological framework and toolbox which supports mountain hazard risk management through understanding and including resilience and vulnerability indicators of the built environment in risk management plans. These indicators are selected in terms of two temporal dimensions: vulnerability (as lack of physical ex-ante robustness) and resilience (as the ex-post ability and required time to return to a fully functional condition). An enhanced method using vulnerability indicators for the assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings exposed to mountain hazards is presented here. The approach builds on an existing tool for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation which combines well established methods such as vulnerability curves and indicators. It is based on the consideration of a number of structural characteristics of the buildings as well as the intensity of the process to assign a physical vulnerability index for each building. Moreover, indicators representing the physical resilience of the building are also included. Preliminary results focusing on buildings from the European Alps.
Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank
Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.
den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.
This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.
Full Text Available The rural population in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH, which constitutes more than half of the total population, experienced serious incidences of extreme weather events in the past two decades. This part of the population is vulnerable to climate change due to significant dependence on agriculture as a climate-sensitive livelihood option. However, the source of their vulnerability is due not only to the extent and magnitude of these extreme climate events, but also to the internal status within the vulnerable systems before the occurrence of such events. In order to explore the different dimensions of vulnerability, we used a set of 20 indicators to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of the rural population to climate change at the local level in BH. Two summarizing and two weighting methods were applied to assess vulnerability—Equal weights (EW and principal component analysis (PCA. Based on the results obtained, we concluded that the current socio-economic conditions and the increased environmental pressure as a result of the present human-environment interactions are the main determinants of vulnerability in most vulnerable municipalities, rather than the degree to which these municipalities are exposed to significant climatic variations. Most vulnerable municipalities are located across the north, with a gradual decrease in vulnerability towards the central, north, and east of the country. Vulnerability increases again from here towards the south of the country. The number of municipalities classified as the highest and highly vulnerable increased when the second summarizing method and weighted indicators were used. However, the general geographic distribution of vulnerability did not change substantially compared to the first method. The approaches used in this study provide some valuable results at the local level, and are presented in a way that is practical for decision-making processes and may serve as a base for further research
Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar
The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will
Hamdan, Ibraheem; Sauter, Martin; Margane, Armin; Ptak, Thomas; Wiegand, Bettina
Key words: Karst, groundwater vulnerability, EPIK, COP, travel time, Jordan. Karst aquifers are especially sensitive to short-lived contaminants because of fast water travel times and a low storage capacity in the conduit system. Tanour and Rasoun karst springs located around 75 km northwest of the city of Amman in Jordan represent the main domestic water supply for the surrounding villages. Both springs suffer from pollution events especially during the winter season, either by microbiological contamination due to wastewater leakage from septic tanks or by wastewater discharge from local olive oil presses. To assess the vulnerability of the karst aquifer of Tanour and Rasoun spring and its sensitivity for pollution, two different intrinsic groundwater vulnerability methods were applied: EPIK and COP. In addition, a travel time vulnerability method was applied to determine the time water travels from different points in the catchment to the streams, as a function of land surface gradients and presumed lateral flow within the epikarst. For the application of the COP and EPIK, a detailed geological survey was carried out to determine karst features and the karst network development within the catchment area. In addition, parameters, such as soil data, long term daily precipitation data, land use and topographical data were collected. For the application of the travel time vulnerability method, flow length, hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity, and slope gradient was used in order to determining the travel time in days. ArcGIS software was used for map preparation. The results of the combined vulnerability methods (COP, EPIK and travel time) show a high percentage of "very high" to "moderate" vulnerable areas within the catchment area of Tanour and Rasoun karst springs. Therefore, protection of the catchment area of Tanour and Rasoun springs from pollution and proper management of land use types is urgently needed to maintain the quality of drinking water in the
Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos
The majority of human activities are concentrated around coastal areas, making coastline retreat, a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, thus increasing protection cost and investment revenue losses. In this study the management of coastal areas in terms of protecting coastal infrastructures, cultural and environmental heritage sites, through risk assessment analysis is been made. The scope is to provide data for spatial planning for future developments in the coastal zone and the protection of existing ones. Also to determine the impact of coastal changes related to the loss of natural resources, agricultural land and beaches. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach, combining environmental, spatial and economic data. This can be implemented by integrating the assessment of vulnerability of coasts, the spatial distribution and structural elements of coastal infrastructure (transport, tourism, and energy) and financial data by region, in a spatial database. The approach is based on coastal vulnerability estimations, considering sea level rise, land loss, extreme events, safety, adaptability and resilience of infrastructure and natural sites. It is based on coupling of environmental indicators and econometric models to determine the socio-economic impact in coastal infrastructure, cultural and environmental heritage sites. The indicators include variables like the coastal geomorphology; coastal slope; relative sea-level rise rate; shoreline erosion/accretion rate; mean tidal range and mean wave height. The anthropogenic factors include variables like settlements, sites of cultural heritage, transport networks, land uses, significance of infrastructure (e.g. military, power plans) and economic activities. The analysis in performed by a GIS application. The forcing variables are determined with the use of sub-indices related to coastal geomorphology, climate and wave variables and the socioeconomics of the coastal zone. The Greek coastline in
Full Text Available Introduction: The water crisis is one of the main challenges of the current century. Drought is one of the most costly natural disasters in Iran. During the past 40 years, our country has experienced 27 droughts. It seems a necessary step to deal with the consequences of drought and reducing its effects, thorough understanding and knowledge of each region's vulnerability, which is neglected in our country, unfortunately. It is necessary to study the influencing factors in determining vulnerability and makes it visible. On the other hand, due to the continuing drought conditions intensified in recent years and its impact on different economic sectors, especially the agricultural sector in the country need to assess vulnerability to drought in the country will double. Materials and Methods: Fuzzy AHP method based on the concept of fuzzy sets introduced by LotfeiZadeh. There are several ways to use fuzzy theory and hierarchical structure proposed merger. Cheng in 1996 suggested a new approach to solve problems using Fuzzy AHP calibration values within the membership and (TFNs. Extent Analysis Method proposed by Chang is one of the common ways to solve problems. In this study, we developed a method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy Chang that has been developed by Zhu et al. and Van Alhag. Results and Discussion: Vulnerability to drought conditions is determined by factors such as economic, social and physical sensitivity to the damaging effects of drought increases. This study is designed in the hierarchy. The purpose of this study is assessing the vulnerability of the country to drought. Vulnerability of this study includes economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and physical vulnerability. Economic vulnerability to drought indicates that the economy is vulnerable to external shocks due to drought and the inability of the economy to withstand the effects of the event and recover the situation. Social vulnerability determines the capacity to
Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida
The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and
Stojanović Božidar; Jovašević-Stojanović Milena
Cities and towns are faced with various types of threat from the extraordinary events involving chemical and radiological materials as exemplified by major chemical accidents, radiological incidents, fires, explosions, traffic accidents, terrorist attacks, etc. On the other hand, many sensitive or vulnerable assets exist within cities, such as: settlements, infrastructures, hospitals, schools, churches, businesses, government, and others. Besides emergency planning, the land use planning also...
Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B
Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.
Goodwell, Allison E.; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Holmes, Robert R.; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P.; Jacobson, Robert B.
Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km2 agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.
Worrall, F.; Kolpin, D.W.
Groundwater vulnerability is a central concept in pollution risk assessment, yet its estimation has been largely a matter of expert judgment. This work applies a method for the direct calculation of vulnerability from monitoring well observations of pesticide concentrations. The method has two major advantages: it is independent of the compounds being examined, and it has a direct probabilistic interpretation making it ideal for risk assessment. The methodology was applied to data from a groundwater monitoring program in the midwestern United States. The distribution of the vulnerabilities was skewed toward zero. Spatial distribution of the vulnerabilities shows them to be controlled by both regional and local factors. Methods are presented for estimating the necessary sample sizes for vulnerability studies. The further application of the approach developed in this study to understanding groundwater pollution is discussed.
Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moshiri, B.
The main objective of this research is to find the extent to which the minimal variability Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) model of seismic vulnerability assessment is sensitive to variation of optimism degree. There are a variety of models proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment. In order to examine the efficiency of seismic vulnerability assessment models, the stability of results could be analysed. Seismic vulnerability assessment is done to estimate the probable losses in the future earthquake. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods have been applied by a number of researchers to estimate the human, physical and financial losses in urban areas. The study area of this research is Tehran Metropolitan Area (TMA) which has more than eight million inhabitants. In addition, this paper assumes that North Tehran Fault (NTF) is activated and caused an earthquake in TMA. 1996 census data is used to extract the attribute values for six effective criteria in seismic vulnerability assessment. The results demonstrate that minimal variability OWA model of Seismic Loss Estimation (SLE) is more stable where the aggregated seismic vulnerability degree has a lower value. Moreover, minimal variability OWA is very sensitive to optimism degree in northern areas of Tehran. A number of statistical units in southern areas of the city also indicate considerable sensitivity to optimism degree due to numerous non-standard buildings. In addition, the change of seismic vulnerability degree caused by variation of optimism degree does not exceed 25 % of the original value which means that the overall accuracy of the model is acceptable.
Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.
Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore
Robert S Rempel
Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.
Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L
Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.
Peter B Moyle
Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish
Moss, R. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Blohm, A. J. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Henriques, J. J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, E L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure
... are justified, and the assessment problem of the protected object vulnerability is formulated. The main advantage of the developed model is the extensive opportunities of formalization of diverse information on the security status of the object...
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report is the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GP LCC) Vulnerability Assessment Report The purpose of the GP LCC is to conduct applied science...
Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu
This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming
This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.
Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia
The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severe damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions.
Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.
Wilhelmi, O.; Hayden, M.; Harlan, S.; Ruddell, D.; Komatsu, K.; England, B.; Uejio, C.
Changing climate is predicted to increase the intensity and impacts of heat waves prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability. Central to understanding societal vulnerability, is adaptive capacity, the potential of a system or population to modify its features/behaviors so as to better cope with existing and anticipated stresses and fluctuations. Adaptive capacity influences adaptation, the actual adjustments made to cope with the impacts from current and future hazardous heat events. Understanding societal risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events and climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with the stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability. This project presents a framework for an interdisciplinary approach and a case study that explore linkages between quantitative and qualitative data for a more comprehensive understanding of local level vulnerability and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events in Phoenix, Arizona. In this talk, we will present a methodological framework for conducting collaborative research on societal vulnerability and adaptive capacity on a local level that includes integration of household surveys into a quantitative spatial assessment of societal vulnerability. We highlight a collaborative partnership among researchers, community leaders and public health officials. Linkages between assessment of local adaptive capacity and development of regional climate change adaptation strategies will be discussed.
Casale, Silvia; Fioravanti, Giulia; Rugai, Laura
Scholars have recently taken an interest in the connection between narcissism and Internet use, especially among users who frequent social networking sites (SNSs). Conversely, the association between narcissism and problematic use of SNSs (i.e., unregulated use that leads to negative outcomes) has been scarcely investigated. This study addresses this gap by comparing the mean levels of problematic use of SNSs among grandiose narcissists, vulnerable narcissists, and non-narcissists. A sample of 535 students completed the 16-item Narcissistic Personality Inventory, the Hypersensitive Narcissism Scale, and the Generalized Problematic Internet Use Scale-2 (GPIUS2). Vulnerable narcissists reported (a) significant higher levels on all GPIUS2 subscales and total scores than non-narcissists and (b) a stronger preference for online social interactions and higher overall levels of problematic use of SNSs than grandiose narcissists. Conversely, no significant differences were found between grandiose narcissists and non-narcissists. This study suggests that vulnerable narcissism may contribute more to problematic use of SNSs than grandiose narcissism.
Full Text Available The Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA Model (Papathoma, 2003 was developed in the absence of robust, well-constructed and validated building fragility models for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami. It has proven to be a useful tool for providing assessments of building vulnerability. We present an enhanced version (PTVA-3 of the model that takes account of new understanding of the factors that influence building vulnerability and significantly, introduce the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP for weighting the various attributes in order to limit concerns about subjective ranking of attributes in the original model. We successfully test PTVA-3 using building data from Maroubra, Sydney, Australia.
Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie
for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding andthereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning......In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...
Gautam, M. R.; Chief, K.; Wilde, K.; Smith, W.
There are increasing concerns of potential climate change impacts that may place the Truckee River Basin in Nevada under unprecedented stress. We hypothesized that Pyramid Lake, a terminal lake of Truckee River, is prone to climatic as well as non-climatic stressors stemming from cumulative impacts from upstream urban areas and activities. Thus climate change may impair the ability of a major downstream water user, the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe (PLPT), to cope and adapt. The conventional approach in assessing vulnerability primarily focuses on hazards or biophysical vulnerabilities, such as water availability, floods, and drought impact. However, we found it inadequate to address the overall vulnerability of the PLPT. Thus in addition to biophysical vulnerabilities, intrinsic and external vulnerabilities were considered such as socio-economic variables (e.g. adaptive capacity) and policy and legal drivers (e.g. water rights). We proposed an elaborate framework for an integrated vulnerability assessment by adapting IPCC framework for vulnerability assessment, the Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive Capacity, and applied it to PLPT. Analysis of projected climate change dataset pointed towards increased incidences of floods and droughts and a warming trend over the whole basin with a higher rate at the lower basin in the future. In effort to understand how climatic trends trigger the vulnerability of PLPT, a multi-pronged approach was employed to understand key tribal livelihood assets including an in-depth analysis of the adaptive capacity of PLPT, a climate change survey, and a historical analysis of water conflict and negotiation. Results of the survey identified key natural assets as the lake, endangered fish, rangeland, and wetlands. The framework of a casual-loop diagram was developed in a system dynamic model that incorporated opinions of tribal stakeholders and other experts to evaluate how potential future climate changes might impact the endangered Cui ui fish
Full Text Available Conventional power systems are developing into cyber-physical power systems (CPPS with wide applications of communication, computer and control technologies. However, multiple practical cases show that the failure of cyber layers is a major factor leading to blackouts. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss the cascading failure process considering cyber layer failures and analyze the vulnerability of CPPS. In this paper, a CPPS model, which consists of cyber layer, physical layer and cyber-physical interface, is presented using complex network theory. Considering power flow properties, the impacts of cyber node failures on the cascading failure propagation process are studied. Moreover, two vulnerability indices are established from the perspective of both network structure and power flow properties. A vulnerability analysis method is proposed, and the CPPS performance before and after cascading failures is analyzed by the proposed method to calculate vulnerability indices. In the case study, three typical scenarios are analyzed to illustrate the method, and vulnerabilities under different interface strategies and attack strategies are compared. Two thresholds are proposed to value the CPPS vulnerability roughly. The results show that CPPS is more vulnerable under malicious attacks and cyber nodes with high indices are vulnerable points which should be reinforced.
Yvonne M Drewes
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, GPs appeared to have an internalized concept of "vulnerability." This study investigates the variability between general practitioners (GPs in their vulnerability-assessment of older persons. METHODS: Seventy-seven GPs categorized their 75-plus patients (n = 11392 into non-vulnerable, possibly vulnerable, and vulnerable patients. GPs personal and practice characteristics were collected. From a sample of 2828 patients the following domains were recorded: sociodemographic, functional [instrumental activities in daily living (IADL, basic activities in daily living (BADL], somatic (number of diseases, polypharmacy, psychological (Mini-Mental State Examination, 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale; GDS-15 and social (De Jong-Gierveld Loneliness Scale; DJG. Variability in GPs' assessment of vulnerability was tested with mixed effects logistic regression. P-values for variability (pvar were calculated by the log-likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: Participating GPs assessed the vulnerability of 10,361 patients. The median percentage of vulnerable patients was 32.0% (IQR 19.5 to 40.1%. From the somatic and psychological domains, GPs uniformly took into account the patient characteristics 'total number of diseases' (OR 1.7, 90% range = 0, p var = 1, 'polypharmacy' (OR 2.3, 90% range = 0, p var = 1 and 'GDS-15' (OR 1.6, 90% range = 0, p var = 1. GPs vary in the way they assessed their patients' vulnerability in the functional domain (IADL: median OR 2.8, 90% range 1.6, p var < 0.001, BADL: median OR 2.4, 90% range 2.9, p var < 0.001 and the social domain (DJG: median OR 1.2, 90% range = 1.2, p var < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: GPs seem to share a medical concept of vulnerability, since they take somatic and psychological characteristics uniformly into account in the vulnerability-assessment of older persons. In the functional and social domains, however, variability was found. Vulnerability assessment by GPs might be a
Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M
Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...
Arosio, Marcello; Martina, Mario L. V.
In the last years, the relations and interactions between multi-hazards, vulnerability, exposure and resilience spheres are assuming more and more attention and the scientific community recognized that they are very dynamic, complex and interconnected. The traditional approaches define risk as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences due to a hazardous phenomenon in a specific period. Although there have been major improvements in recent years, there are still some limitation in term of a holistic approach that is able to include the emergent value hidden in the relation and interaction between the different spheres. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of a society makes the collective risk greater than the sum of the parts and this requires a holistic, systematic and integrated approach. For this reason, it is important to consider the connections between elements to assess properly the vulnerability of systems. In a system (e.g. road, hospital and ecological network, etc.), or in a System of System (e.g. socio-technical urban service), there are critical elements that, beyond the intrinsic vulnerability, can be characterize by greater or lower vulnerability because of their physical, geographical, cyber or logical connections. To understand the system response to a perturbation, and therefore its resilience, is necessary not only to represent but also to quantify the relative importance of the elements and their interconnections. To this aim, we propose an innovative approach in the field of natural risk assessment based on the properties of graph G=(N,L). A graph consists of two sets N (nodes) and L (links): the nodes represent the single exposed elements (physical, social, environmental, etc.) to a hazard, while the links (or connections) represent the interaction between the elements. This approach encourages the risk assessment to a new prospective: from reductionist to holistic. The final goal is to provide insight in understanding how
Allen, A. R.; Milenic, D.
In the Cork Harbour area of SW Ireland, high yield karst and intergranular gravel aquifers are extremely vulnerable to pollution from a variety of sources, mainly due to the limited protection afforded by the thin cover of low permeability glacial and alluvial overburden. The main potential sources of pollution are due to rapid urbanisation of the Cork city area and its attendant infrastructure, and increased industrialisation in the area, with numerous new industries, particularly pharmaceutical and chemical industries, located around Cork Harbour. Other potential sources of pollution are a number of landfills in the area and an oil refinery near the mouth of Cork Harbour. Traditional agricultural sources of pollution also exist, due to increased use of chemical fertilisers. Finally, the susceptibility to saline intrusion of the karst and gravel aquifers around Cork Harbour is high due to the long coastline of the harbour and the low-lying nature of the karst synclines with their superimposed buried valleys.
Thompson, Kirrilly; Every, Danielle; Rainbird, Sophia; Cornell, Victoria; Smith, Bradley; Trigg, Joshua
Increased vulnerability to natural disasters has been associated with particular groups in the community. This includes those who are considered de facto vulnerable (children, older people, those with disabilities etc.) and those who own pets (not to mention pets themselves). The potential for reconfiguring pet ownership from a risk factor to a protective factor for natural disaster survival has been recently proposed. But how might this resilience-building proposition apply to vulnerable members of the community who own pets or other animals? This article addresses this important question by synthesizing information about what makes particular groups vulnerable, the challenges to increasing their resilience and how animals figure in their lives. Despite different vulnerabilities, animals were found to be important to the disaster resilience of seven vulnerable groups in Australia. Animal attachment and animal-related activities and networks are identified as underexplored devices for disseminating or 'piggybacking' disaster-related information and engaging vulnerable people in resilience building behaviors (in addition to including animals in disaster planning initiatives in general). Animals may provide the kind of innovative approach required to overcome the challenges in accessing and engaging vulnerable groups. As the survival of humans and animals are so often intertwined, the benefits of increasing the resilience of vulnerable communities through animal attachment is twofold: human and animal lives can be saved together.
Full Text Available Increased vulnerability to natural disasters has been associated with particular groups in the community. This includes those who are considered de facto vulnerable (children, older people, those with disabilities etc. and those who own pets (not to mention pets themselves. The potential for reconfiguring pet ownership from a risk factor to a protective factor for natural disaster survival has been recently proposed. But how might this resilience-building proposition apply to vulnerable members of the community who own pets or other animals? This article addresses this important question by synthesizing information about what makes particular groups vulnerable, the challenges to increasing their resilience and how animals figure in their lives. Despite different vulnerabilities, animals were found to be important to the disaster resilience of seven vulnerable groups in Australia. Animal attachment and animal-related activities and networks are identified as underexplored devices for disseminating or ‘piggybacking’ disaster-related information and engaging vulnerable people in resilience building behaviors (in addition to including animals in disaster planning initiatives in general. Animals may provide the kind of innovative approach required to overcome the challenges in accessing and engaging vulnerable groups. As the survival of humans and animals are so often intertwined, the benefits of increasing the resilience of vulnerable communities through animal attachment is twofold: human and animal lives can be saved together.
Cavin, Christophe; Cottenet, Geoffrey; Blancpain, Carine; Bessaire, Thomas; Frank, Nancy; Zbinden, Pascal
Crises related to the presence of melamine in milk or horse meat in beef have been a wake-up call to the whole food industry showing that adulteration of food raw materials is a complex issue. By analysing the situation, it became clear that the risk-based approach applied to ensure the safety related to chemical contaminants in food is not adequate for food fraud. Therefore, a specific approach has been developed to evaluate adulteration vulnerabilities within the food chain. Vulnerabilities will require the development of new analytical solutions. Fingerprinting methodologies can be very powerful in determining the status of a raw material without knowing the identity of each constituent. Milk adulterated by addition of adulterants with very different chemical properties could be detected rapidly by Fourier-transformed mid-infrared spectroscopy (FT-mid-IR) fingerprinting technology. In parallel, a fast and simple multi-analytes liquid-chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) method has been developed to detect either high levels of nitrogen-rich compounds resulting from adulteration or low levels due to accidental contamination either in milk or in other sensitive food matrices. To verify meat species authenticity, DNA-based methods are preferred for both raw ingredients and processed food. DNA macro-array, and more specifically the Meat LCD Array have showed efficient and reliable meat identification, allowing the simultaneous detection of 32 meat species. While the Meat LCD Array is still a targeted approach, DNA sequencing is a significant step towards an untargeted one.
Storey, Jennifer E; Strand, Susanne
This study investigated the influence of victim vulnerability factors and gender on risk assessment for intimate partner violence (IPV). 867 cases of male and female perpetrated IPV investigated by Swedish police officers using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) were examined. For male-to-female IPV, victim vulnerability factors were associated with summary risk judgments and risk management recommendations. For female-to-male IPV, vulnerability factors were more often omitted, and consistent associations were not found between vulnerability factors, summary risk judgments, and risk management. Results indicate that B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors can assist in assessing male-to-female IPV risk. Further research is necessary to examine the use of B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors for female-to-male IPV, as results showed victim vulnerability factors to be less relevant to officers' decision making, particularly their management recommendations. However, several variables external to the B-SAFER, such as the availability of management strategies may account for these findings.
Burchett, Deon L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chen, Richard Li-Yang [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Phillips, Cynthia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Richard, Jean-Philippe [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
This report summarizes the work performed under the project project Next-Generation Algo- rithms for Assessing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Optimizing System Resilience. The goal of the project was to improve mathematical programming-based optimization technology for in- frastructure protection. In general, the owner of a network wishes to design a network a network that can perform well when certain transportation channels are inhibited (e.g. destroyed) by an adversary. These are typically bi-level problems where the owner designs a system, an adversary optimally attacks it, and then the owner can recover by optimally using the remaining network. This project funded three years of Deon Burchett's graduate research. Deon's graduate advisor, Professor Jean-Philippe Richard, and his Sandia advisors, Richard Chen and Cynthia Phillips, supported Deon on other funds or volunteer time. This report is, therefore. essentially a replication of the Ph.D. dissertation it funded  in a format required for project documentation. The thesis had some general polyhedral research. This is the study of the structure of the feasi- ble region of mathematical programs, such as integer programs. For example, an integer program optimizes a linear objective function subject to linear constraints, and (nonlinear) integrality con- straints on the variables. The feasible region without the integrality constraints is a convex polygon. Careful study of additional valid constraints can significantly improve computational performance. Here is the abstract from the dissertation: We perform a polyhedral study of a multi-commodity generalization of variable upper bound flow models. In particular, we establish some relations between facets of single- and multi- commodity models. We then introduce a new family of inequalities, which generalizes traditional flow cover inequalities to the multi-commodity context. We present encouraging numerical results. We also consider the directed
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Synthetic Assessment of Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change: Maps and Data, 2005, 2050, and 2100 consist of maps and vulnerability index to...
Thompson, Kirrilly; Every, Danielle; Rainbird, Sophia; Cornell, Victoria; Smith, Bradley; Trigg, Joshua
Simple Summary The potential for reconfiguring pet ownership from a risk factor to a protective factor for natural disaster survival has been recently proposed. But how might this resilience-building proposition apply to members of the community who are already considered vulnerable? This article addresses this important question by synthesizing information about what makes seven particular groups vulnerable, the challenges to increasing their resilience and how animals figure in their lives. It concludes that animal attachment could provide a novel conduit for accessing, communicating with and motivating vulnerable people to engage in resilience building behaviors that promote survival and facilitate recovery. Abstract Increased vulnerability to natural disasters has been associated with particular groups in the community. This includes those who are considered de facto vulnerable (children, older people, those with disabilities etc.) and those who own pets (not to mention pets themselves). The potential for reconfiguring pet ownership from a risk factor to a protective factor for natural disaster survival has been recently proposed. But how might this resilience-building proposition apply to vulnerable members of the community who own pets or other animals? This article addresses this important question by synthesizing information about what makes particular groups vulnerable, the challenges to increasing their resilience and how animals figure in their lives. Despite different vulnerabilities, animals were found to be important to the disaster resilience of seven vulnerable groups in Australia. Animal attachment and animal-related activities and networks are identified as underexplored devices for disseminating or ‘piggybacking’ disaster-related information and engaging vulnerable people in resilience building behaviors (in addition to including animals in disaster planning initiatives in general). Animals may provide the kind of innovative approach required
This research thoroughly examines the current Naval Postgraduate School Gigabit Network security posture, identifies any possible threats or vulnerabilities, and recommends any appropriate safeguards...
Grozavu, Adrian; Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Catalin Stanga, Iulian
maps (slope, aspect, shading), realized based on the topographical plans and maps (1:1000, 1:5000). The second step was to realize the spatial inventory of elements at risk (vector format), based on the General Urban Plan (1:5000), the orthorectified aerial images (2009, resolution: 0.5 meters) and field investigations. All elements have been classified using attribute databases: residential buildings (single or multiple dwellings), other buildings according to their functionality, main and secondary roads, special transport network etc. Data about population have been added in order to assess the intrinsic value of each element and the number of potentially affected peoples. The study also took into account issues as preparedness and preventive measures (risk prevention plans, reinforcing structures, draining wells etc.), coping ability (network geometry and connectivity, emergency services accessibility) and recovering capacity (e.g. the existence of insurance policies). According to their importance and functionality, a distinct rank (ri … rn) was assigned to each element at risk (i1…in) showing the level of vulnerability. The rank values were assigned mainly on the expert knowledge and they range from 1 (limited damages, no affected people) to 5 (several households and people affected, dysfunctions in the urban system). The vulnerability index (Vi) was obtained combining the rank with the role of vulnerability factors (Fi), according to their degree of influence: the number of people that would be affected, the potential material and economic damages, the relationship with the neighboring exposed elements, the existence of the preventing, coping and recovering measures etc. Thus, the general equation of vulnerability has the form of weighted geometric mean: Vi=ri•Fi = ri•(w1F1 • w2F2 • … • wmFm). It must be noted that the weighting coefficients (wi) have subunitary or supraunitary value according to their role in diminishing or increasing the
Rankinen, Katri; Akujärvi, Anu; Holmberg, Maria
Croplands and forests of the boreal region supply a wide range of ecosystem services. The properties and processes of these ecosystems regulate water flow and climate, and retain nutrients and store carbon. The functioning of the ecosystem processes depends on ambient temperatures and precipitation patterns, which are likely to continue changing in the boreal zone. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409, 9/2013 - 9/2017) is an EU Life funded project about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone Applying Innovative Observation and Modeling Techniques. In this project, we calculated future changes of carbon storage in soil, and nutrient loading from soil to surface waters and drinking water supplies. We calculated the carbon storage of forests and croplands using the dynamic YASSO litter and soil carbon model. The simulated carbon budget estimates were upscaled to the river basin by combining them with gridded data of land cover. We simulated nutrient loading from two boreal catchments to the receiving waters using the dynamic, catchment scale model INCA. We calculated land use specific loading values for these two well monitored catchments that belong to the LTER (The Long Term Ecological Research) monitoring network, and upscaled these results to the larger river basin based on grid-scaled data of land cover. We used population projections as proxies for the societal demand for the services of climate regulation and water purification, and assessed thereby the vulnerability of society to climate-induced changes in these services. In this poster we present the technical frame of combining models and data.
Guo, Christine C; Tan, Rachel; Hodges, John R; Hu, Xintao; Sami, Saber; Hornberger, Michael
SEE SCHMAHMANN DOI101093/BRAIN/AWW064 FOR A SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY ON THIS ARTICLE: Neurodegenerative diseases are associated with distinct and distributed patterns of atrophy in the cerebral cortex. Emerging evidence suggests that these atrophy patterns resemble intrinsic connectivity networks in the healthy brain, supporting the network-based degeneration framework where neuropathology spreads across connectivity networks. An intriguing yet untested possibility is that the cerebellar circuits, which share extensive connections with the cerebral cortex, could be selectively targeted by major neurodegenerative diseases. Here we examined the structural atrophy in the cerebellum across common types of neurodegenerative diseases, and characterized the functional connectivity patterns of these cerebellar atrophy regions. Our results showed that Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia are associated with distinct and circumscribed atrophy in the cerebellum. These cerebellar atrophied regions share robust and selective intrinsic connectivity with the atrophied regions in the cerebral cortex. These findings for the first time demonstrated the selective vulnerability of the cerebellum to common neurodegenerative disease, extending the network-based degeneration framework to the cerebellum. Our work also has direct implications on the cerebellar contribution to the cognitive and affective processes that are compromised in neurodegeneration as well as the practice of using the cerebellum as reference region for ligand neuroimaging studies. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: email@example.com.
Baloch, Mansoor A; Sahar, Liora
This study assesses and characterizes the vulnerability of unregulated groundwater systems to microbial contamination in 18 counties in the state of Georgia using a contamination risk screening strategy based on watershed characteristics and elements of the Safe Drinking Water Act's Wellhead Protection program. Environmental data sources analyzed include septic systems, elevation, land use and land cover data, soil, vegetation coverage, demographics, and livestock. A geospatial overlay/index modeling approach was developed to identify areas of higher vulnerability for groundwater pollution by taking into consideration watershed land use, hydrology, and topography (LHT). Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the effectiveness of model variables. The results of the model were validated by using field data and output from U.S. EPA's DRASTIC model, a widely used intrinsic vulnerability assessment tool. The validation showed a higher risk of microbial contamination for wells located in a high to medium LHT vulnerability zones. LHT provided a clear distribution of satisfactory and unsatisfactory wells in the three vulnerability zones; however, the majority of wells (>75%), with both satisfactory and unsatisfactory test results, are located in medium DRASTIC vulnerability zone. This difference between LHT and DRASTIC can be attributed to the microbial contamination specific factors incorporated into LHT index. It is concluded that although inclusion of potential contamination sources on adjacent land uses in the vulnerability assessment framework adds to the complexity of the processes involved in a vulnerability assessment, such inclusion provides a meaningful perspective to groundwater protection efforts as an effective screening tool. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Full Text Available Groundwater resources are increasingly threatened by pollution. The AVAP project was initiated to develop improved methods for vulnerability assessments in urban catchments, with particular emphasis on the integration of available soils information...
Computer viruses have developed over time from programs such as Trojan horses and logic bombs . A computer virus infects software programs in order to...applications such as Trojan horses , packet sniffers, and amplifiers on unprotected cables . In the case of UTACC, eavesdropping could take place when...71 APPENDIX J. AN ATTACK ON MOBILE DEVICES ON A WIRELESS NETWORK 75 APPENDIX K. A COMPUTER VIRUS
Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li
As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.
Full Text Available Monumental tombs reflect various social, cultural, architectural, religious, economic, and engineering features of a community. However, environmental weathering, natural disasters, poor maintenance, vandalism, and misuse unfortunately pose serious threats to these cultural assets. Historic monuments are often exposed to the highest risk due to their vulnerability. The Ottoman-style Nişancı Hamza Paşa tomb located in Karacaahmet Cemetery, Istanbul, the largest and oldest public cemetery in Turkey, is a case in point. The tomb consisting of six granite columns and a brick dome supported by six arches was constructed in 1605. Cracks, material loss, and decay as a result of adverse environmental effects and past earthquakes are evident. Therefore, this paper analyses the overall value of the tomb with respect to its historical, communal, evidential, and aesthetic aspects. Using the finite element approach and data on the tomb’s material properties, a structural analysis under the self-weight and a time history analysis based on the earthquake ground motion data recorded in Duzce, Turkey, in November 1999 were conducted to encourage the conservation of this tomb and similar cultural heritage assets all over the world. The damage observed in the structure is congruent with the analysis results.
Erkal, Aykut; Ozhan, Hakki O
Monumental tombs reflect various social, cultural, architectural, religious, economic, and engineering features of a community. However, environmental weathering, natural disasters, poor maintenance, vandalism, and misuse unfortunately pose serious threats to these cultural assets. Historic monuments are often exposed to the highest risk due to their vulnerability. The Ottoman-style Nişancı Hamza Paşa tomb located in Karacaahmet Cemetery, Istanbul, the largest and oldest public cemetery in Turkey, is a case in point. The tomb consisting of six granite columns and a brick dome supported by six arches was constructed in 1605. Cracks, material loss, and decay as a result of adverse environmental effects and past earthquakes are evident. Therefore, this paper analyses the overall value of the tomb with respect to its historical, communal, evidential, and aesthetic aspects. Using the finite element approach and data on the tomb's material properties, a structural analysis under the self-weight and a time history analysis based on the earthquake ground motion data recorded in Duzce, Turkey, in November 1999 were conducted to encourage the conservation of this tomb and similar cultural heritage assets all over the world. The damage observed in the structure is congruent with the analysis results.
Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il
There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.
Hyun Il Choi
Full Text Available There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.
Edward R. Carr
Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.
Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A
Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.
Cui, Lifang; Ge, Zhenming; Yuan, Lin; Zhang, Liquan
Sea-level rise (SLR) caused by global climate change will have significant impacts on the low-lying coastal zone. The coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, with their low elevation, are particularly sensitive to SLR. In this study, the potential impacts of SLR on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by adopting the SPRC (Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence) model. Based on the SPRC model and IPCC vulnerability definition, an indicator system for vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands to SLR was developed, in which the rate of SLR, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, mean daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. Vulnerability assessment, based on the projection of SLR rates from the present trend (0.26 cm/yr) and IPCC's A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm/yr), were performed for three time periods: short-term (2030s), medium-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results indicated that in the 2030s, 6.6% and 9.0% of the coastal wetlands were within the grade of low vulnerability under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. In the 2050s, the percentage of coastal wetlands within the grades of low and moderate vulnerability increases to 9.8% and 0.2%, 9.5% and 1.0% under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. In the 2100s, 8.1% and 3.0% of the coastal wetlands were within the grade of low vulnerability, 0.8% and 2.8% were within the grade of moderate vulnerability under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. The percentage of coastal wetlands within the grade of high vulnerability increases significantly, amounting to 2.3% and 6.9% under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology developed and the results could assist
Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.
The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.
Eidsvig, Unni; Uzielli, Marco; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn
Critical infrastructures are essential components for the modern society to maintain its function, and malfunctioning of one of the critical infrastructure systems may have far-reaching consequences. Climate changes may lead to increase in frequency and intensity of weather-related hazards, creating challenges for the infrastructures. This paper outlines approaches to assess vulnerability posed by weather-related hazards to infrastructures. The approaches assess factors that affect the probability of a malfunctioning of the infrastructure should a weather-related threat occur, as well factors that affect the societal consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning. Even if vulnerability factors are normally very infrastructure specific and hazard dependent, generic factors could be defined and analyzed. For the vulnerability and resilience of the infrastructure, such factors include e.g. robustness, buffer capacity, protection, quality, age, adaptability and transparency. For the vulnerability of the society in relation to the infrastructure, such factors include e.g. redundancy, substitutes and cascading effects. A semi-quantitative, indicator-based approach is proposed, providing schemes for ranking of the most important vulnerability indicators relevant for weather-related hazards on a relative scale. The application of the indicators in a semi-quantitative risk assessment is also demonstrated. In addition, a quantitative vulnerability model is proposed in terms of vulnerability (representing degree of loss) as a function of intensity, which is adaptable to different types of degree of loss (e.g. fraction of infrastructure users that lose their service, fraction of repair costs to full reconstruction costs). The vulnerability model can be calibrated with empirical data using deterministic calibration or a variety of probabilistic calibration approaches to account for the uncertainties within the model. The research leading to these results has received funding
Redshaw, Sarah; Ingham, Valerie; McCutcheon, Marion; Hicks, John; Burmeister, Oliver
To assess the impact of network communications, community participation and elements of vulnerability on the perception of social cohesiveness in the Blue Mountains local government area (Blue Mountains LGA). A questionnaire was administered to residents of the Blue Mountains LGA. Econometric analysis of the resulting data was undertaken. Blue Mountains LGA, Australia. One thousand one hundred and three residents of the Blue Mountains LGA responded to the questionnaire. The responses enabled the construction of variables measuring individual perceptions of community cohesiveness, their network communications and community participation. Demographic data and data on the vulnerabilities of individuals were also collected. The data were used in an econometric model which identified that network communications and community participation impacted positively on perceptions of social cohesiveness while vulnerability factors had a negative impact. Remedial action to build community cohesiveness and network communications can be expected to have a positive impact on social cohesiveness. In developing strategies to build community cohesiveness and network communication, particular care needs to be taken to ensure the inclusion of those members of society who are regarded as the most vulnerable. © 2017 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.
Schuur, E.A.G.; Abbott, B.W.; Bowden, W.B.; Brovkin, V.; Camill, P.; Canadell, J.G.; Chanton, J.P.; Chapin, F. S.; Christensen, T.R.; Ciais, P.; Crosby, B.T.; Czimczik, C.I.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Jastrow, J.D.; Jones, J.B.; Kleinen, T.; Koven, C.D.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Natali, Susan M.; O'Donnell, J. A.; Ping, C.-L.; Riley, W.J.; Rinke, A.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Sannel, A.B.K.; Schädel, C.; Schaefer, K.; Sky, J.; Subin, Z.M.; Tarnocai, C.; Turetsky, M.R.; Waldrop, M.P.; Anthony, K.M. Walter; Wickland, K.P.; Wilson, C.J.; Zimov, S.A.
Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.
Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar
The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology
Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.
Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study
Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min
Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.
Full Text Available On the basis of the vulnerability-led approach, the Prevalent Community-level Vulnerability Index (PCVI was developed as a simple composite index used to represent community-level vulnerability to climate change in the socioeconomic and hazard contexts. The PCVI consists of three major components which are Exposure & hazard, Socioeconomic-ecological fragility and Coping capacity. All of these components are further comprised of different indicators, representing different aspects of biophysical and social vulnerability of grass-root communities. Based on the results analyzed in the provincial pilot sites, the PCVI could represent both spatial patterns and magnitudes of vulnerability of each community in consistence with the local economic-social-environmental contexts. It generally reflects the differences in the local contexts and factors that determine overall vulnerability of each community. For the ease in calculating the PCVI especially for the provincial operating staffs and general public, the PREvalent Community Climate Change Vulnerability Tool (RECCC was further developed as a user-friendly, Excel-based program. In conclusions, the outputs of this study that include the PCVI and its database as well as the RECCC program are useful not only for analyzing vulnerability and assessing risks of community to climate change, but also for supporting decision-making process in developing and implementing adaptation activities at provincial level. These outputs were also designed for further integrating as a supplementary part of Provincial�s Decision Supporting System (DSS, with the purpose of promoting the participation of local organizations and stakeholders in coping with the adverse impacts of climate change. However, additional development of ERCCC program, together with dissemination of the vulnerability framework as well as the use of ERCCC program to local organizations needs to be continued.
Full Text Available The widespread adoption of web vulnerability scanners and the differences in the functionality provided by these tool-based vulnerability detection approaches increase the demand for testing their detection effectiveness. Despite the advantages of dynamic testing approaches, the literature lacks studies that systematically evaluate the performance of open source web vulnerability scanners. The main objectives of this study are to assess the performance of open source scanners from multiple perspectives and to examine their detection capability. This paper presents the results of a comparative evaluation of the security features as well as the performance of four web vulnerability detection tools. We followed this comparative assessment with a case study in which we evaluate the level of agreement between the results reported by two open source web vulnerability scanners. Given that the results of our comparative evaluation did not show significant performance differences among the scanners while the results of the conducted case study revealed high level of disagreement between the reports generated by different scanners, we conclude that the inconsistencies between the reports generated by different scanners might not necessarily correlate with their performance properties. We also present some recommendations for helping developers of web vulnerabilities scanners to improve their tools’ capabilities.
Joerin, Florent; Cool, Geneviève; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Gignac, Marc; Bouchard, Christian
Outbreaks of microbiological waterborne disease have increased governmental concern regarding the importance of drinking water safety. Considering the multi-barrier approach to safe drinking water may improve management decisions to reduce contamination risks. However, the application of this approach must consider numerous and diverse kinds of information simultaneously. This makes it difficult for authorities to apply the approach to decision making. For this reason, multi-criteria decision analysis can be helpful in applying the multi-barrier approach to vulnerability assessment. The goal of this study is to propose an approach based on a multi-criteria analysis method in order to rank drinking water systems (DWUs) based on their vulnerability to microbiological contamination. This approach is illustrated with an application carried out on 28 DWUs supplied by groundwater in the Province of Québec, Canada. The multi-criteria analysis method chosen is measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique methodology allowing the assessment of a microbiological vulnerability indicator (MVI) for each DWU. Results are presented on a scale ranking DWUs from less vulnerable to most vulnerable to contamination. MVI results are tested using a sensitivity analysis on barrier weights and they are also compared with historical data on contamination at the utilities. The investigation demonstrates that MVI provides a good representation of the vulnerability of DWUs to microbiological contamination.
Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert
During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.
Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen
This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves
Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2 of 65Â m in (41 different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement. The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing. The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1â0.19 area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1; this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0â0.1 while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1â0.3 vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area. Keywords: Aquifer vulnerability, Longitudinal conductance, GOD and GLSI
Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.
Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.
Sonnenborg, Torben O; Scharling, Peter B; Hinsby, Klaus; Rasmussen, Erik S; Engesgaard, Peter
A large-scale groundwater flow and transport model is developed for a deep-seated (100 to 300 m below ground surface) sedimentary aquifer system. The model is based on a three-dimensional (3D) hydrostratigraphic model, building on a sequence stratigraphic approach. The flow model is calibrated against observations of hydraulic head and stream discharge while the credibility of the transport model is evaluated against measurements of (39)Ar from deep wells using alternative parameterizations of dispersivity and effective porosity. The directly simulated 3D mean age distributions and vertical fluxes are used to visualize the two-dimensional (2D)/3D age and flux distribution along transects and at the top plane of individual aquifers. The simulation results are used to assess the vulnerability of the aquifer system that generally has been assumed to be protected by thick overlaying clayey units and therefore proposed as future reservoirs for drinking water supply. The results indicate that on a regional scale these deep-seated aquifers are not as protected from modern surface water contamination as expected because significant leakage to the deeper aquifers occurs. The complex distribution of local and intermediate groundwater flow systems controlled by the distribution of the river network as well as the topographical variation (Tóth 1963) provides the possibility for modern water to be found in even the deepest aquifers. © 2015, National Ground Water Association.
Full Text Available Introduction: Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and drought. In the meantime, drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources, and this phenomenon is slow and creeping.Available evidence suggests that drought management is based on crisis management. As the present management in our country is based on crisis management, and drought-proneareasin thecountryhave become a society vulnerable to drought. So, the authorities require a new set of data for drought preparedness to deal with these challenges, in order to obtain the resources to be properly and effectively prioritized and reduce the effects of drought and its consequences. Undoubtedly, the starting point of vulnerability assessment and risk management is a prerequisite that has been sadly neglected in our country. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of technical, economic and social vulnerability assessment determined before and after the drought and vulnerability patterns for wheat farmers in the North of Fars province. Materials and Methods: The vulnerability of wheat farmers in the North of Fars province is determined using three methods. The first method measured ex ante vulnerability based on estimated income distributions, and the other identified ex post vulnerability according to farmers asset positions and drought coping strategy in the 1390 drought. The final section determined the patterns of vulnerability using cluster analysis and data mining. A sample of 203 farmers in three plains was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years (1390 and 1391 was carried out. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of households in the North of Fars province against drought, the formula Me-bar and Valdez has been used. In North of Fars province, as many other fields, agriculture is the main source of income and income
James H. Thorne; Hyeyeong Choe; Peter A. Stine; Jeanne C. Chambers; Andrew Holguin; Amber C. Kerr; Mark W. Schwartz
Climate change effects are already apparent in some Southwestern US forests and are expected to intensify in the coming decades, via direct (temperature, precipitation) and indirect (fire, pests, pathogens) stressors. We grouped Southwestern forests into ten major types to assess their climate exposure by 2070 using two global climate models (GCMs) and two emission...
with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the ground water. 28 quality in terms of identifying .... which is technically very sparse for the purpose of pollution assessment. For the entire 2500. 93 km2 of ... level-2 classification (schema developed by NRSC-GIS, 2010). Other landform units include.
Braun, Andreas; Stötzer, Johanna; Kubisch, Susanne; Dittrich, Andre; Keller, Sina
Natural hazards impose considerable threats to the physical and socio-economic wellbeing of people, a fact, which is well understood and investigated for many regions. However, not only people are vulnerable. During the last decades, a considerable amount of literature has focussed the particular vulnerability of the critical infrastructure: for example road networks. Considering critical infrastructure, far less reliable information exists for many regions worldwide - particularly, regions outside of the so called developed world. Critical infrastructure is destroyed in many disasters, causing cascade and follow up effects, for instance, impediments during evacuation, rescue and during the resilience phase. These circumstances, which are general enough to be applied to most regions, aggravate in regions characterized by high disparities between the urban and the rural sphere. Peripheral rural areas are especially prone to get isolated due to defects of the few roads which connect them to larger urban centres (where, frequently, disaster and emergency actors are situated). The rural area of Central Chile is a appropriate example for these circumstances. It is prone to destruction by several geo-hazards and furthermore, characterized by the aforementioned disparities. Past disasters, e.g. the 1991 Cerro Hudson eruption and the 2010 Maule earthquake have led to follow up effects (e.g. farmers, being unable to evacuate their animals due to road failures in the first case, and difficultires to evacuate people from places such as Caleta Tumbes or Dichato, which are connected by just a single road only in the second). The contribution develops a methodology to investigate into the critical infrastructure of such places. It develops a remoteness index for Chile, which identifies remote, peripheral rural areas, prone to get isolated due to road network failures during disasters. The approach is graph based. It offers particular advantages for regions like rural Chile since
Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie
Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory
Full Text Available One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an 'at-risk' region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a 'human factor'; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on.
Full Text Available This paper examines how surveying and monitoring improve our knowledge about ancient buildings, allow the interpretation of their structural response and help in the search for the best solutions for their conservation. The case study of Palazzo del Capitano in Mantua (Italy is analyzed. In particular, the attention is focused on the use of a Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS for surveying and monitoring too, considering that the building structural control has been performed in combination with other traditional topographic techniques such as geometric leveling and topographic networks for 3D control based on measurements through total stations. The study of TLS monitoring has been tested only in the last decade and it is an innovative method for the detection of displacements of particular surfaces. Till now the research has focused only on the use of TLS monitoring to control large structures and in particular landscape situations; thus its use for a civil construction and historical buildings is a new field of investigation. Despite the fact technological development and new methodologies seem offer new future potential for the analysis of ancient buildings, currently there are still important limits for the application of the investigated surveying and monitoring techniques.
Full Text Available In this research we have attempted to measure vulnerability of the communities living in the flood prone area of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Extensive literature review was conducted to identify the flood vulnerability indicators. Primary data were used to achieve the objective of this study. Questionnaires were used to collect the primary data from the selected households and from the director of Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management. Subjective assessment technique was used to allocate weights to the selected indicators of vulnerability. A sample size of 280 respondents was taken from three selected locations of Charsadda, Nowshera and Peshawar. Simple random sampling was employed for the selection of respondents. Results revealed that overall vulnerability as well as component vulnerability for the selected locations was very high. The study therefore recommends preparedness, provision of funds for building houses with flood resistant materials and building houses in safer places. There is also a need for enhancing the adaptive capacities of the concerned communities through their socio-economic uplift. Implementation of these policies would lower the vulnerability of the communities to flood disasters.
Leal, J. A. Ramos; Medrano, C. Noyola; Silva, F. O. Tapia; García, J. T. Silva; Gutiérrez, L. R. Reyes
Aquifer systems present intrinsic properties such as vulnerability, which is identified as the potential risk of groundwater pollution by contaminants generated by human activity. When there are surface sources of pollution, usually there is a direct relationship between high vulnerability and decreased water quality. Nevertheless, this relationship is not observed in all aquifers and so the causative circumstances of inconsistencies between aquifer vulnerability and water quality have been investigated. This work addresses the vulnerability assessment of the Chapala Marsh area, Mexico, using SINTACS analysis. The Chapala Marsh aquifer is characterized by a granular structure and a fractured recharge zone; there are natural and anthropogenic sources of pollution. The results show discrepancies between the vulnerability indices and groundwater quality, as indicated by the existence of vulnerable areas with good water quality and vice versa. This is because the SINTACS method works well when contaminants have only vertical movement. For scenarios with lateral movement of contaminants, the method of geographic weighted regression (GWR) is used to model the influence of potential sources of contaminants on the water quality.
Muhammad Saqib Khan
Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.
Full Text Available In quantitative risk assessment, risk is expressed as a function of the hazard, the elements at risk and the vulnerability. From a natural sciences perspective, vulnerability is defined as the expected degree of loss for an element at risk as a consequence of a certain event. The resulting value is dependent on the impacting process intensity and the susceptibility of the elements at risk, and ranges from 0 (no damage to 1 (complete destruction. With respect to debris flows, the concept of vulnerability – though widely acknowledged – did not result in any sound quantitative relationship between process intensities and vulnerability values so far, even if considerable loss occurred during recent years.
To close this gap and establish this relationship, data from a well-documented debris flow event in the Austrian Alps was used to derive a quantitative vulnerability function applicable to buildings located on the fan of the torrent. The results suggest a second order polynomial function to fit best to the observed damage pattern. Vulnerability is highly dependent on the construction material used for exposed elements at risk. The buildings studied within the test site were constructed by using brick masonry and concrete, a typical design in post-1950s building craft in alpine countries. Consequently, the presented intensity-vulnerability relationship is applicable to this construction type within European mountains. However, a wider application of the presented method to additional test sites would allow for further improvement of the results and would support an enhanced standardisation of the vulnerability function.
Ryu, J. E.; Lee, D. K.; Jung, T. Y.; Choi, K. L.; Lee, S. H.
Many countries are developing policy and measures to adapt to climate changes at the national and local levels, but the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and the establishment of countermeasures in the industries considering industrial factors such as worker, infrastructure are insufficient due to the characteristics of diverse processes and fields. In South Korea, the national government provides infrastructures for industrial parks where various companies in manufacturing and other industries are concentrated . Because of their concentration, damages can aggravate in case of natural disasters such as typhoons. In this study, vulnerability indices for climate change were developed and evaluated using climate scenarios for the climate exposure of localized terrential downpour for eight industrial parks. The vulnerability indices were selected and reviewed through literature review and two in-depth interviews with experts in various industries, and the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was conducted by collecting relevant information including the Directory of Industrial Complexes. The vulnerability of each industrial park to climate change was assessed for four time serious such as the base line, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s . As a result, even though the possibility of localized heavy rain was the highest in Yeosu(Southeast coast) at present, but it was predicted that Gwangyang(Southwest coast) will be higher in the future. For the influences of climate including sensitivity, Ulsan Mipo(Southeast coast) is currently under the highest influence of climate, but the Gumi(Inland area) was forecasted to be under the highest influence of climate in the future. As a result of the assessment of vulnerability to climate change including adaptive capacity, Gumi and Myongji Noksan(Southeast coast) were most vulnerable to localized heavy rain. The degree of vulnerability of all the industrial parks except Ulsan and Yeosu was forecasted to increase in the
During the research an attempt was made to assess an intrinsic groundwater vulnerability to contamination in Tatra Mountains (Poland. Assessment of the degree of hazard of permeating pollutions from land surface directly to the ground water table was the main target of the research. The Jaworzynka's Valley in West Tatra Mountains was chosen as the exact research area. Jaworzynka's Valley is a typical karst catchment basin. Location of study area wasn't accidental, because in the north part of the valley there is a well which is being used as drinking water intake for the whole Zakopane City. This is the reason, why the quality of ground water is so important. The method used in this research, entitled KARSTIC, wasn't applied in Poland before. This is a parametric method of groundwater vulnerability assessment. KARSTIC is a modification of much better known DRASTIC method, specialized for specific karst terrain. KARSTIC method created by A. Davis and others (1994), was used for the first time, during a research in the Black Hills Mountains, USA. Research in Jaworzynka's Valley was based on the Black Hills study. In order to apply this method in Tatra Mountains, it was necessary to make a few changes in relation to original area. Applying KARSTIC method consists of successive stages. Schematization of hydrogeological conditions is an inseparable part of KARSTIC method. The first step bases on collecting all of available data such as maps, databases and documentations. Next stage consists of classifying all parameters employed in this method and then assigning a ratings and weights for this parameters. Subsequently it is necessary to use a mathematical formula, named Pollution Potential Index, which presents a ground water vulnerability in each point. The final step is visualization on the ground water vulnerability map. The result of research displays the high vulnerability in close proximity of the drinking water intake. The most vulnerable areas in Jaworzynka
Li, Min; Lu, Chuanzhu; Son, Wei; Miao, Junhong; Ding, Yipeng; Li, Longhe; Zhang, Leilei; Zhao, Nin; Hu, Bijiang; Zhang, Yunjun
Hainan is an island province in south China with a high frequency of unconventional emergencies due to its special geographic location and national military defense role. Given the limited transportation route from Hainan to the outside world, self-rescue is more important to Hainan Province than other provinces in China and it is therefore imperative to establish an independent, scientific as well as efficient provincal disaster medical system in Hainan. The regulatory role for vulnerability analysis/assessment has been demonstrated in establisment of disaster medical system in varoius countries and or regions. In this paper, we attempt to describe/propose how to adopt vulnerability assessment through mathematical modeling of major biophysical social vulnerability factors to establish an independent, scientific, effieicnt and comprehensive provincial disaster medical system in Hainan. Copyright © 2011 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, T.; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.
We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S. ?? 2011 MTS.
Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington
Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Yang, Y. S; Wang, L
The catchment-scale groundwater vulnerability assessment that delineates zones representing different levels of groundwater susceptibility to contaminants from diffuse agricultural sources has become...
Harden, J.W.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Ahlstrom, A.; Blankinship, J. C.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Lawrence, C.; Loisel, Julie; Malhotra, Avni; Jackson, R. B.; Ogle, Stephen; Phillips, C.; Ryals, Rebecca; Todd-Brown, Katherine EO; Vargas, R.; Vergara, Sintana; Cotrufo, Francesca; Keiluweit, M.; Heckman, K. A.; Crow, Susan; Silver, Whendee; Delonge, Marcia; Nave, Lucas
Soil organic matter supports the Earth’s ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retain the largest pool of actively cycling carbon (C). Over 75% ofthe soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance land productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well-established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of soil organic matter and C and their management for sustained production and climate regulation.
Harden, Jennifer W; Hugelius, Gustaf; Ahlström, Anders; Blankinship, Joseph C; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Lawrence, Corey R; Loisel, Julie; Malhotra, Avni; Jackson, Robert B; Ogle, Stephen; Phillips, Claire; Ryals, Rebecca; Todd-Brown, Katherine; Vargas, Rodrigo; Vergara, Sintana E; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Keiluweit, Marco; Heckman, Katherine A; Crow, Susan E; Silver, Whendee L; DeLonge, Marcia; Nave, Lucas E
Soil organic matter (SOM) supports the Earth's ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retains the largest pool of actively cycling carbon. Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of SOM and SOC and their management for sustained production and climate regulation. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Harden, Jennifer W.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Ahlström, Anders; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Lawrence, Corey; Loisel, Julie; Malhotra, Avni; Jackson, Robert B.; Ogle, Stephen M.; Phillips, Claire; Ryals, Rebecca; Todd-Brown, Katherine; Vargas, Rodrigo; Vergara, Sintana E.; Cotrufo, M. Francesca; Keiluweit, Marco; Heckman, Katherine; Crow, Susan E.; Silver, Whendee L.; DeLonge, Marcia; Nave, Lucas E.
Soil organic matter (SOM) supports the Earth's ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retains the largest pool of actively cycling carbon. Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of SOM and SOC and their management for sustained production and climate regulation.
Wade, Alisa A; Hand, Brian K; Kovach, Ryan P; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane C; Muhlfeld, Clint C
Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.
Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Barros, José Leandro; Santos, Angela
This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami-inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
José Leandro Barros
Full Text Available Portugal’s coastline extends 1187 km. It is characterized by social, economic and physical conditions that differentiate it from the rest of the territory, including population density, location of infrastructure and support of tourism activities. Therefore, it has a significant exposure if a tsunami occurs. Six coastal study sites with varying characteristics were selected for evaluation in this paper, including two core beach-use areas, two residential areas and two industrial areas. These sites are located in the municipalities of Figueira da Foz, Setúbal and Vila do Bispo. The analysis began with the calculation of the potential tsunami inundation area for each site using the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Next, a methodology distinguished by its multidimensional character was applied to assess local vulnerability to tsunamis. This methodology assesses vulnerabilities associated with morphological, structural, social and tax factors. These four vulnerability components were combined to obtain a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI, which enabled us to identify the most vulnerable areas and to determine the distinguishing characteristics of each area.
Narra, S.; Dismukes, D. E.
The coastal communities of the central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) form a highly productive and complex human, physical, and natural environment that interact in ways unique compared to other coastal areas of the globe. Past studies on understanding coastal resiliency and developing vulnerability indices for this region have mainly focused on climate change and sea-level rise, with more recent research directed towards recognizing socio-economic and demographic factors. The interactions of climate change and non-climatic drivers of the coastal ecosystem such as economy and infrastructure concentration are often overlooked. To support the development of policies relating to coastal management and climate change, it is vital to integrate all the relevant parameters. This paper presents a relative vulnerability assessment of the central GOM coast by incorporating climatic, geological, socio-economic, demographic and economic variables. A multi-dimensional Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) developed from these parameters is used to rate coastal segments into different classes based on their range of vulnerability. We study the relationship between energy infrastructure and the physical and human aspects of communities to identify and prioritize communities, and the proximate infrastructure most at risk from coastal climate change. Spatial analysis will be a component part of this index-based approach to characterize, organize, and analyze data for assessing coastal community vulnerability in areas supporting critical energy infrastructure. Special focus is directed towards the concentration of pipeline and transportation infrastructure in this region.
Aras, Rifat; Shen, Yuzhong
Tsunami preparedness is crucial for saving human lives in case of disasters that involve massive water movement. In this work, we develop a framework for visual assessment of tsunami preparedness of geographies. Shallow water equations (also called Saint Venant equations) are a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations that are derived by depth-integrating the Navier-Stokes equations and provide a great abstraction of water masses that have lower depths compared to their free surface area. Our specific contribution in this study is to use Microsoft's XNA Game Studio to import underwater and shore line geographies, create different tsunami scenarios, and visualize the propagation of the waves and their impact on the shore line geography. Most importantly, we utilized the computational power of graphical processing units (GPUs) as HLSL based shader files and delegated all of the heavy computations to the GPU. Finally, we also conducted a validation study, in which we have tested our model against a controlled shallow water experiment. We believe that such a framework with an easy to use interface that is based on readily available software libraries, which are widely available and easily distributable, would encourage not only researchers, but also educators to showcase ideas.
Cuesta, Isabel [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Salmon, Michael W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
The purpose of this report is to present the results of the evaluation completed on the Rest House Facility (TA-16-4111) in support of hazard analysis for a Documented Safety Assessment (DSA). The Rest House facility has been evaluated to verify the structural response to seismic, wind, and snow loads in support of the DynEx DSA. The structural analyses consider the structure and the following systems and/or components inside the facility as requested by facility management: cranes, lighting protection system, and fire protection system. The facility has been assigned to Natural Phenomena Hazards (NPH) Performance Category (PC) –3. The facility structure was evaluated to PC-3 criteria because it serves to confine hazardous material, and in the event of an accident, the facility cannot fail or collapse. Seismicinduced failure of the cranes, lighting, and fire-protection systems according to DOE-STD-1021-93 (Ref. 1) “may result in adverse release consequences greater than safety-class Structures, Systems, and Components (SSC) Evaluation Guideline limits but much less than those associated with PC-4 SSC.” Therefore, these items will be evaluated to PC-3 criteria as well. This report presents the results of those analyses and suggests recommendations to improve the seismic capacity of the systems and components cited above.
Michael J. Furniss; Ken B. Roby; Dan Cenderelli; John Chatel; Caty F. Clifton; Alan Clingenpeel; Polly E. Hays; Dale Higgins; Ken Hodges; Carol Howe; Laura Jungst; Joan Louie; Christine Mai; Ralph Martinez; Kerry Overton; Brian P. Staab; Rory Steinke; Mark. Weinhold
Assessment of watershed vulnerability to climate change. Pilot National Forest reports: Gallatin National Forest, Helena National Forest, Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests, White River National Forest, Coconino National Forest, Sawtooth National Forest, Shasta-Trinity National Forest, Umatilla National Forest, Umatilla National Forest, Ouachita...
Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch
Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...
Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar
Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...
Deborah M. Finch; Megan Friggens; Karen Bagne
This case study describes a method for scoring terrestrial species that have potential to be vulnerable to climate change. The assessment tool seeks to synthesize complex information related to projected climate changes into a predictive tool for species conservation. The tool was designed to aid managers in prioritizing species management actions in response to...
Zhao, Jensen; Zhao, Sherry Y.
While the growing popularity of social media has brought many benefits to society, it has also resulted in privacy and security threats. The authors assessed the security and vulnerability of 50 social media sites. The findings indicate that most sites (a) posted privacy and security policies but only a minority stated clearly their execution of…
Reniers, G.L.L.; Dullaert, W.E.H.
The suggested Hazmat transport Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology presents a user-friendly approach to determine relative security risk levels of the different modes of hazardous freight transport (i.e., road, railway, inland waterways and pipeline transportation). First, transport
Malone, K.; Silla, A.; Johanssen, C.; Bell, D.
Introduction: This paper describes the modification and development of methodologies to assess the impacts of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) applications for Vulnerable Road users (VRUs) in the domains of safety, mobility and comfort. This effort was carried out in the context of the VRUITS
Full Text Available Groundwater is among the most important freshwater resources. Worldwide, aquifers are experiencing an increasing threat of pollution from urbanization, industrial development, agricultural activities and mining enterprise. Thus, practical actions, strategies and solutions to protect groundwater from these anthropogenic sources are widely required. The most efficient tool, which helps supporting land use planning, while protecting groundwater from contamination, is represented by groundwater vulnerability assessment. Over the years, several methods assessing groundwater vulnerability have been developed: overlay and index methods, statistical and process-based methods. All methods are means to synthesize complex hydrogeological information into a unique document, which is a groundwater vulnerability map, useable by planners, decision and policy makers, geoscientists and the public. Although it is not possible to identify an approach which could be the best one for all situations, the final product should always be scientific defensible, meaningful and reliable. Nevertheless, various methods may produce very different results at any given site. Thus, reasons for similarities and differences need to be deeply investigated. This study demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of a spatial statistical method to assess groundwater vulnerability to contamination at a regional scale. The Lombardy Plain case study is particularly interesting for its long history of groundwater monitoring (quality and quantity, availability of hydrogeological data, and combined presence of various anthropogenic sources of contamination. Recent updates of the regional water protection plan have raised the necessity of realizing more flexible, reliable and accurate groundwater vulnerability maps. A comparison of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through different approaches and developed in a time span of several years has demonstrated the relevance of the
Full Text Available On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy “Camera degli Sposi”. This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited “Camera degli Sposi” realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.
Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun
To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0.18/0.16) and Guangning (0.17/0.15) district of Zhaoqing. The score of indicators differed among different level
Pasi, Riccardo; Viavattene, Christophe; La Loggia, Goffredo
Natural hazards damage assets and infrastructure inducing disruptions to urban functions and key daily services. These disruptions may be short or long with a variable spatial scale of impact. From an urban planning perspective, measuring these disruptions and their consequences at an urban scale is fundamental in order to develop more resilient cities. Whereas the assessment of physical vulnerabilities and direct damages is commonly addressed, new methodologies for assessing the systemic vulnerability at the urban scale are required to reveal these disruptions and their consequences. Physical and systemic vulnerability should be measured in order to reflect the multifaceted fragility of cities in the face of external stress, both in terms of the natural/built environment and socio-economic sphere. Additionally, a systemic approach allows the consideration of vulnerability across different spatial scales, as impacts may vary and be transmitted across local, regional or national levels. Urban systems are spatially distributed and the nature of this can have significant effects on flood impacts. The proposed approach identifies the vulnerabilities of flooding within urban contexts, including both in terms of single elementary units (buildings, infrastructures, people, etc.) and systemic functioning (urban functions and daily life networks). Direct losses are appraised initially using conventional methodologies (e.g. depth-damage functions). This aims to both understand the spatial distribution of physical vulnerability and associated losses and, secondly, to identify the most vulnerable building types and ways to improve the physical adaptation of our cities, proposing changes to building codes, design principles and other municipal regulation tools. The subsequent systemic approach recognises the city as a collection of sub-systems or functional units (such as neighbourhoods and suburbs) providing key daily services for inhabitants (e.g. healthcare facilities
This article assesses the vulnerability to climatic and socioeconomic stresses in the Reef Islands, Solomon Islands, an atoll island group in the Southwest Pacific. Climate change and the associated sea-level rise are often seen as the most pressing challenges to atoll communities, yet this study...... infrastructure, economic marginalization and weak governance of Solomon Islands. Findings suggest that some of these non-climatic stresses are currently – and in the short term – more important determinants of local vulnerability than climate change and sea-level rise. Certainly, these stresses are likely...
Full Text Available In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model. Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA. This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.
Stephen, L; Downing, T E
This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue, and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities.
Akpan, Anthony E; Ebong, Ebong D; Emeka, Chimezie N
The geophysical-based integrated electrical conductivity (IEC) and the groundwater hydraulic confinement-overlying strata-depth to water table (GOD) techniques were used to assess vulnerability levels of aquifers and the extent of aquifer protection in Abi, Nigeria. The IEC indices was generated from constrained one dimensional (1D) inversion of vertical electrical sounding (VES) and two dimensional (2D) electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data, acquired randomly in the area. The GOD indices were sourced from existing geologic data within the area. Results showed that IEC values vary from 2.0 S in the strongly protected areas. The GOD indices vary from vulnerable areas to 0.6 in the highly vulnerable areas. Thus, the groundwater resources in the area need to be properly managed for sustainability and such management practices have been suggested.
Werg, J.; Grothmann, T.; Schmidt, P.
People are unequally affected by extreme weather events in terms of mortality, morbidity and financial losses; this is the case not only for developing, but also for industrialized countries. Previous research has established indicators for identifying who is particularly vulnerable and why, focusing on socio-demographic factors such as income, age, gender, health and minority status. However, these factors can only partly explain the large disparities in the extent to which people are affected by natural hazards. Moreover, these factors are usually not alterable in the short to medium term, which limits their usefulness for strategies of reducing social vulnerability and building social capacity. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we propose an approach for refining assessments of social vulnerability and building social capacity by integrating psychological and governance factors.
Stepan P. Zemtsov
Full Text Available Methods and results of social vulnerability and risk assessment are presented in the article. It is explored if modified methodology of the United Nations University (World risk index can be used on different scale levels: regional, municipal and settlement. It was estimated that, despite the low value of the World risk index for Russia, southern coastal and mountain regions have high values of the risk index for hydrological phenomena because of higher frequency of the hazardous events, higher population density, and high social vulnerability. The Krasnodar region (in the south-western part of Russia was chosen for a detailed analysis. A municipal risk index was developed, and municipal districts in the Kuban rivermouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.
Ayal, D. Y., Sr.; Abshare, M. W. M.; Desta, S. D.; Filho, W. L.
Desalegn Yayeh Ayal P.O.BOX 150129 Addis Ababa University Ethiopia Mobil +251910824784 Abstract Smallholder farmers' near term scenario (2010-2039) vulnerability nature and magnitude was examined using twenty-two exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity vulnerability indicators. Assessment of smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate variability revealed the importance of comprehending exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity induces. Due to differences in level of change in rainfall, temperature, drought frequency, their environmental interaction and variations on adaptive capacity the nature and magnitude of smallholder farmers vulnerability to physical, biological and epidemiological challenges of crop and livestock production varied within and across agro-ecologies. Highlanders' sensitive relates with high population density, erosion and crop disease and pest damage occurrence. Whereas lowlanders will be more sensitive to high crop disease and pest damage, provenance of livestock disease, absence of alternative water sources, less diversified agricultural practices. However, with little variations in the magnitude and nature of vulnerability, both highlanders and lowlanders are victims of climate variability and change. Given the ever increasing population, temperature and unpredictable nature of rainfall variability, the study concluded that future adaptation strategies should capitalize on preparing smallholder farmers for both extremes- excess rainfall and flooding on the one hand and severe drought on the other.
Sadat-Noori, Mahmood; Ebrahimi, Kumars
Groundwater contamination is a major concern for groundwater resource managers worldwide. We evaluated groundwater pollution potential by producing a vulnerability map of an aquifer using a modified Depth to water, Net recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone, and Hydraulic conductivity (DRASTIC) model within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The proposed modification which incorporated the use of statistical techniques optimizes the rating function of the DRASTIC model parameters, to obtain a more accurate vulnerability map. The new rates were computed using the relationships between the parameters and point data chloride concentrations in groundwater. The model was applied on Saveh-Nobaran plain in central Iran, and results showed that the coefficient of determination (R (2)) between the point data and the relevant vulnerability map increased significantly from 0.52 to 0.78 after modification. As compared to the original DRASTIC model, the modified version produced better vulnerability zonation. Additionally, single-parameter and parameter removal sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the relative importance of each DRASTIC parameter. The results from both analyses revealed that the vadose zone is the most sensitive parameter influencing the variability of the aquifers' vulnerability index. Based on the results, for non-point source pollution in agricultural areas, using the modified DRASTIC model is efficient compared to the original model. The proposed method can be effective for future groundwater assessment and plain-land management where agricultural activities are dominant.
Mfumu Kihumba, Antoine; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ndembo Longo, Jean
This study assessed the vulnerability of groundwater against pollution in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, as a support of a groundwater protection program. The parametric vulnerability model (DRASTIC) was modified and calibrated to predict the intrinsic vulnerability as well as the groundwater pollution risk. The method uses groundwater body specific parameters for the calibration of the factor ratings and weightings of the original DRASTIC model. These groundwater specific parameters are inferred from the statistical relation between the original DRASTIC model and observed nitrate pollution for a specific period. In addition, site-specific land use parameters are integrated into the method. The method is fully embedded in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Following these modifications, the correlation coefficient between groundwater pollution risk and observed nitrate concentrations for the 2013-2014 survey improved from r = 0.42, for the original DRASTIC model, to r = 0.61 for the calibrated model. As a way to validate this pollution risk map, observed nitrate concentrations from another survey (2008) are compared to pollution risk indices showing a good degree of coincidence with r = 0.51. The study shows that a calibration of a vulnerability model is recommended when vulnerability maps are used for groundwater resource management and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.
Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.
Ponsford, Lisa R
Violence on college campuses has become increasingly more common than in previous years. Nearly 73% of students with a mental health condition living on campus experience a mental health crisis. College students arriving on campuses today come with different needs, expectations for services, and with different risk factors than in previous years. Advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) in college health settings have the ability to recognize these changing trends and assist with improving the mental health of this population. A critical analysis of an exemplar college campus is explored using the vulnerability model to assess risks that can lead to unnecessary and preventable violence on college campuses. The vulnerability model is a comprehensive approach utilized to guide an assessment to identify both individual and community risk factors influencing health and healthcare environments. The use of the vulnerability model illustrated in this article reveals its usefulness in identifying the risk and needs for this population. APRNs and student health centers are positioned well to utilize the vulnerability model in assessing the needs of college campuses to improve outcomes of students. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.
Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian
The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available The article argues that despite the evident link between political environment and security of energy supply, political elements are not sufficiently represented in contemporary scientific literature, namely in indexes that are designed for the assessment of security of energy supply. In an attempt to fill this gap, the article presents an innovative methodology for quantitative assessment of the political vulnerabilities on security of energy supply and applies it to the analysis of the Baltic States.
Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Waples, Robin S.; Luikart, Gordon
Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are important tools to plan for and mitigate potential impacts of climate change. However, CCVAs often lack scientific rigor, which can ultimately lead to poor conservation prioritization and associated ecological and economic costs. We discuss the need to improve comparability and consistency of CCVAs and either validate their findings or improve assessment of CCVA uncertainty and sensitivity to methodological assumptions.
Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain
Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience
Watson, Amanda; Reece, Joshua S.; Tirpak, Blair; Edwards, Cynthia Kallio; Geselbracht, Laura; Woodrey, Mark; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Dalyander, P. Soupy
Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates the aspects of exposure and sensitivity to threats, coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both
Watson, Amanda; Reece, Joshua; Tirpak, Blair; Edwards, Cynthia Kallio; Geselbracht, Laura; Woodrey, Mark; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Dalyander, Patricia (Soupy)
Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates exposure and sensitivity to threats (potential impact), coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in
Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Methods Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. Results The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., < 15 years) and illiterate residents, as well as a high proportion of individuals being either unemployed or doing housework. Conclusions Both modeling approaches reveal similar outputs, indicating that in the absence of local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified
Baldeweg, Torsten; Sepeta, Leigh; Zimmaro, Lauren; Berl, Madison M.; Gaillard, William D.
Children with focal epilepsy are at increased risk of language impairment, yet the neural substrate of this dysfunction is not yet known. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging we investigated the impact of focal epilepsy on the developing language system using measures of network topology (spatial organization of activation) and synchrony (functional connectivity). We studied healthy children (n = 48, 4–12 years, 24 females) and children with focal epilepsy (n = 21, 5–12 years, nine females) with left hemisphere language dominance. Participants performed an age-adjusted auditory description decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging, to identify perisylvian language regions. Mean signal change was extracted from eight left perisylvian regions of interest and compared between groups. Paired region of interest functional connectivity analysis was performed on time course data from the same regions, to investigate left network synchrony. Two principal component analyses were performed to extract (i) patterns of activation (using mean signal change data); and (ii) patterns of synchronized regions (using functional connectivity data). For both principal component analyses two components (networks) were extracted, which mapped onto the functional anatomy of dorsal and ventral language systems. Associations among network variables, age, epilepsy-related factors and verbal ability were assessed. Activated networks were affected by age and epilepsy [F(2,60) = 3.74, P = 0.03]: post hoc analyses showed, for healthy children, activation in both ventral and dorsal networks decreased with age (P = 0.02). Regardless of age and task performance, children with epilepsy showed reduced activation of the ventral network (P language outcome ( = 0.47, P = 0.002). This suggests childhood onset epilepsy preferentially alters maturation of the ventral language system, and this is related to poorer language ability. PMID:24941948
It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental
Forouzan, A.; Eftekhari, M. Baradaran; Falahat, K.; Dejman, M.; Heidari, N.; Habibi, E.
Introduction: Iran is one of the ten most earthquake prone countries in the world. Earthquakes not only cause new psychological needs among the population but particularly so when one considers vulnerable groups. This in - depth study was conducted with the aim of assessing psychosocial needs six months after an earthquake happened in the west of the county in Lorestan province. Methods: This is a qualitative study using focus group discussion that focuses mainly on the vulnerable groups (women, children, elderly and disabled people) after an earthquake in Boz-azna; a village in Lorestan province in western part of Iran. Findings: Results of the psychosocial assessment indicated feelings of anxiety and worries in four vulnerable groups. Horror, hyper-excitement, avoidance and disturbing thoughts were observed in all groups with the exception of the elderly. Educational failures, loneliness and isolation were highlighted in children. All groups encountered socio-economic needs that included loss of assets and sense of insecurity and also reproductive problems were reported in women's group. Discussion and Conclusion: Modification of a protocol on psychosocial support considering the context of the rural and urban areas with emphasis on the specific needs of the vulnerable groups is an appropriate strategy in crisis management. It seems that appropriate public awareness regarding assistance programs can be effective in reducing stress and needs of disaster survivors. PMID:23777724
Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F
This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...
Sun, Fuxiong; Pi, Juntao; Lv, Jin; Cao, Tian
Network security risk assessment technology can be found in advance of the network problems and related vulnerabilities, it has become an important means to solve the problem of network security. Based on attack graph and Markov chain, this paper provides a Network Security Risk Assessment Model (NSRAM). Based on the network infiltration tests, NSRAM generates the attack graph by the breadth traversal algorithm. Combines with the international standard CVSS, the attack probability of atomic nodes are counted, and then the attack transition probabilities of ones are calculated by Markov chain. NSRAM selects the optimal attack path after comprehensive measurement to assessment network security risk. The simulation results show that NSRAM can reflect the actual situation of network security objectively.
Loague, Keith; Blanke, James S; Mills, Melissa B; Diaz-Diaz, Ricardo; Corwin, Dennis L
Precious groundwater resources across the United States have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management practices to prevent subsurface pollution. Presented here are the results from a series of regional-scale vulnerability assessments for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Two relatively simple indices, the retardation and attenuation factors, are used to estimate near-surface vulnerabilities based on the chemical properties of 32 pesticides and the variability of both soil characteristics and recharge rates across the SJV. The uncertainties inherit to these assessments, derived from the uncertainties within the chemical and soil data bases, are estimated using first-order analyses. The results are used to screen and rank the chemicals based on mobility and leaching potential, without and with consideration of data-related uncertainties. Chemicals of historic high visibility in the SJV (e.g., atrazine, DBCP [dibromochloropropane], ethylene dibromide, and simazine) are ranked in the top half of those considered. Vulnerability maps generated for atrazine and DBCP, featured for their legacy status in the study area, clearly illustrate variations within and across the assessments. For example, the leaching potential is greater for DBCP than for atrazine, the leaching potential for DBCP is greater for the spatially variable recharge values than for the average recharge rate, and the leaching potentials for both DBCP and atrazine are greater for the annual recharge estimates than for the monthly recharge estimates. The data-related uncertainties identified in this study can be significant, targeting opportunities for improving future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.
Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew
Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.
Batıbeniz, Fulden; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Preston, Ben; Pagan, Brianna; Rastogi, Deeksha
There is no clear knowledge towards the collective risk associated with multivariate extremes for natural and human systems, as the research thus far has not taken into account the combined impact of changes in hot, cold, wet and dry extremes. Concurrently, not all the factors influencing human vulnerability to climate change are related with natural system's response to climate forcing as future changes in both the magnitude and the distribution of human population and income levels can potentially multiply or reduce the risk of human exposure to climatic changes. For a comprehensive socio-climate risk assessment, a county-level integrated vulnerability index is developed in this study to provide an estimate of future exposure to both changes in climate extremes and socioeconomic conditions over the continental United States. The integrated vulnerability index is based on the combination of a unified climate extremes indices, which summarize overall exposure to multivariate and multidimensional climate extremes, including hot, cold, wet and dry, and shared socioeconomic pathways, which identify communities at risk based on projected population and income levels. We will present results from the application of the proposed integrated vulnerability index on a high-resolution (4km) 11-member ensemble of regional climate simulations and multiple socioeconomic pathways, aggregated at county scale, which cover 1966-2005 in the baseline and 2011-2050 in the near-term future climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Overall, this research should help advance robust strategies for assessing the risk and vulnerability associated with projected changes in temperature and precipitation characteristics, as well as socioeconomic conditions.
Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.
Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the
Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.
The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.
Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore
other hand, the resilience of the individual, the household, the community, is its adaptive capacity to absorb disturbance and reorganize into a fully functioning system by anticipation, response, adaptation and recovery. A key contribution of GeoRisCA project is to assess the vulnerability to different geohazards by integrating geographic and time variability. This methodology takes into account the specificities highlighted at the regional and the local scale (urban sites). And it also considers that the vulnerability evolves with time, e.g. due to improved education, increased income, denser social networks and evolution of coping mechanisms. Using the above described methodology, one of the main objective of GeoRisCA is to developed vulnerability maps that, once associated with geohazards data, will provide decision making tools for existing preparedness and mitigation institutions.
Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.
Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few
Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul
The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and
Sedrati, Nassima; Djabri, Larbi; Chaffai, Hicham; Bougherira, Nabil
Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The aim of this work is to propose a new integrated methodology to assess actual and forecasted groundwater vulnerability by combining Drastic and susceptibility index. The contamination susceptibility index (SI) at a given location was calculated by taking the product of the vulnerability DRASTIC index (VI) and the quality index (QI): SI=VI x QI. The superficial aquifer of Annaba plain was the study case proposed for the application of this methodology. The study revealed that the area with Very High vulnerability would increase 73 % in this superficial layer. This result can be explained by the susceptibility index map shows both hydrogeological and hydrochemical data related to the contamination problem including areas that should be taken into consideration during water management planning. The index map indicates that the most susceptible groundwater is occupies the majority of the study area. The validity of the DRASTIC and the susceptibility index methods, verified by comparing the distribution of some pollutants (Daouad, 2013) in the groundwater and the different vulnerability classes, shows a high contamination that affect the water quality in study areas.
Full Text Available Hydrological risk phenomena such as floods are among the most costly natural disasters worldwide, effects consisting of socioeconomic damages and deaths. The Bâsca Chiojdului catchment area, by its morphometric and hydrographic peculiarities, is prone to generate these hydrological risk phenomena, so there is a high vulnerability in the socioeconomic elements. This paper is focused on the identification of the main socioeconomic elements vulnerable to hydrological risk phenomena such as floods, based on the assessment of their manifestation potential. Thus, following the delimitation of areas with the highest flood occurrence potential (susceptibility to floods, major socioeconomic factors existing in the basin, considering human settlements (constructions, transport infrastructure, and agricultural areas (the most important category, were superimposed. Results showed a high vulnerability for all three exposed socioeconomic elements especially in valley sectors, of which household structures were the most vulnerable, given both their importance and the high number of areas highly exposed to floods (approximately 2,500 houses and outbuildings, out of a total of about 10,250, intersect the most susceptible area to floods in the study area.
Apel, Heiko; Garschagen, Matthias; Delgado, José Miguel; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Van Tuan, Vo; Thanh Binh, Nguyen; Birkmann, Joern; Merz, Bruno
Low lying estuaries as the Mekong Delta in Vietnam are among the most vulnerable areas with respect to climate change impacts. While regular floods are not a threat but an opportunity for livelihoods and income generation, extreme flood events can pose considerable risks to the people living in Deltas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme floods globally, which in combination with sea level rise and a likely intensification of cyclone activity creates increased and/or entirely new hazard exposure in the Deltas. Yet, in line with the risk literature and especially the recent IPCC SREX report, flooding risk needs to be understood as deriving from the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerabilities of exposed elements. Therefore, the paper aims for an integrated risk assessment through combining the most up to date estimates of flood hazard projections under climate change conditions in the Mekong Delta with the assessment of vulnerability patterns. Projections of flood hazard are estimated based the modulation of the flood frequency distribution by atmospheric circulation patterns. Future projections of these patterns are calculated from an ensemble of climate models. A quasi two-dimensional hydrodynamical model of the Delta is then applied to estimate water levels and flood extend. This model is fed with a set of hydrographs which are based on both the derived climate model uncertainty and the bivariate nature of floods in the Mekong Delta. Flood peak is coupled with flood volume in the probabilistic framework to derive synthetic extreme future floods with associated probabilities of occurrence. This flood hazard analysis is combined with static sea level rise scenarios, which alter the lower boundary of the hydrodynamic model and give estimates of the impact on sea level rise on inundation extend and depths. The vulnerability assessment is based on a three step approach. Firstly, vulnerability profiles are developed for different
Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.
'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.
Wieland, M.; Pittore, M.; Parolai, S.; Zschau, J.
Geospatial technologies are increasingly being used in pre-disaster vulnerability assessment and post-disaster impact assessment for different types of hazards. Especially the use of remote sensing data has been strongly promoted in recent years due to its capabilities of providing up-to-date information over large areas at a comparatively low cost with increasingly high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution. Despite its clear potentials, a purely remote sensing based approach has its limitations in that it is only capable of providing information about the birds-eye view of the objects of interest. The use of omnidirectional imaging in addition can provide the necessary street-view that furthermore allows for a rapid visual screening of a buildings façade. In this context, we propose an integrated approach to rapid inventory data capturing for the assessment of structural vulnerability of buildings in case of an earthquake. Globally available low-cost data sources are preferred and the tools are developed on an open-source basis to allow for a high degree of transferability and usability. On a neighbourhood scale medium spatial but high temporal and spectral resolution satellite images are analysed to outline areas of homogeneous urban structure. Following a proportional allocation scheme, for each urban structure type representative sample areas are selected for a more detailed analysis of the building stock with high resolution image data. On a building-by-building scale a ground-based, rapid visual survey is performed using an omnidirectional imaging system driven around with a car inside the identified sample areas. Processing of the acquired images allows for an extraction of vulnerability-related features of single buildings (e.g. building height, detection of soft-storeys). An analysis of high resolution satellite images provides with further inventory features (e.g. footprint area, shape irregularity). Since we are dealing with information coming from
Full Text Available Water resources management has become more challenging in Taiwan due to rapid socio-economic development and the complications of climate change. This study developed a systematic procedure for assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience with an integrated tool, TaiWAP, including climate change scenarios, a weather generator, a hydrological model, and system dynamic models. Five assessment indicators, including two for vulnerability, two for resilience, and one for availability were used to quantify changes in water resources and improvements after implementing adaption measures. Each indicator was presented with 3 grades, namely low, medium, and high. Water resources vulnerability and resilience for Tainan City in southern Taiwan were evaluated. Insufficient water supply facilities capacity is the major weakness causing low resilience. Water resources allocation flexibility is limited by substantial agricultural water demands. A total of 9 adaption measures and combinations of measures were assessed. Desalination plant implementation can steadily supply public water to lessen system failure duration. Although agricultural water conservation and fallow land can greatly reduce water demand, fallow compensation is a potential cost. When food security is considered, reducing irrigation leakage will be a better adaption measure to both water and agriculture stakeholders. Both agriculture water conservation and cropping systems adjustment have cross-spatial flexibilities. The combination of desalination, reservoirs and public water conservation provide the most beneficial effects in reducing climate change impact.
Full Text Available European coasts suffer notably from hazards caused by low-probability and high-impact hydrometeorological events. The aim of the study is to assess in probabilistic terms the magnitude of storm‐induced flooding hazard along Varna regional coast (Bulgaria, western Black Sea and to identify susceptible coastal sectors (hotspots. The study is performed employing the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF developed within EU FP7 RISC-KIT project. It constitutes a screening process that allows estimation of relevant hazard intensities, extents and potential receptors’ exposure vulnerability within predefined sectors. Total water level was the chief property considered for calculation of coastal flooding hazard. It was estimated using Holman model (for sandy beaches and EurOtop formulation (for artificial or rocky slopes. Resulting values were subjected to Extreme Value Analysis to establish that the best fitting distribution corresponds to Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Furthermore, hazard extents were modelled by means of bathtubbing or overwash estimation in order to form the flooding hazard indicator. Land use, social vulnerability, transport systems, utilities and business settings were considered as exposure indicators. Finally, potential risk was assessed by coastal indices following an index-based methodology, which combines hazard and exposure indicators into a single index, thereby providing base for comparison of coastal sectors’ vulnerability. The study found that the concentration of hotspots is highest in Varna Bay.
Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.
The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of
Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth
vulnerability and resilience assessments. For instance, the collation of insurance loss data with event documentations containing information on flood intensity allows to develop damage curves. Flood damage curves are fundamental for many risk analysis methodologies but to date only few are published and the spatial and temporal scope of their applicability is subject of discussion. Another possibility of using insurance data lies in the field of assessment exposure, where the analysis of comprehensive insurance portfolio data can improve the understanding of the physical but also the socio-economical vulnerability of a society. The poster spotlights key opportunities and challenges scientists are facing when using insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments.
Lim, C. H.; Lee, E. J.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.; Jeon, S. W.
Desertification is one of the global threatening problems in respect of society, economy, and environment, and the assessment of desertification is essential for land planning and management. However desertification is a process that encompasses various factors in various aspects, having difficulties to assess qualitatively. The main purpose of the research is to qualitatively assess sensitivity of land to desertification, and detect the most vulnerable land to desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach. MEDALUS approach aims to provide a manual on key indicators of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification in the Mediterranean countries. However in this research, MEDALUS approach is implemented and reviewed on the countries located in the Middle Asia; Mongolia and Myanmar. MEDALUS approach identifies regions with the highest risk of desertification with 4 quality index; climate, soil, vegetation, management. Within the four quality index are several regional scale indicators for Mongolia and Myanmar, which gives effect with increasing or decreasing risk of desertification. MODIS satellite images, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and climatic and geographical data were used to calculate the indicators. The weighting of each indicator ranged from 1 to 2; the higher weight the more vulnerable to desertification. The weighted indicators were allocated to 4 quality index, and the four quality index was summed to calculate Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) representing the vulnerability of land degradation to desertification. As a result, the Middle East region of Mongolia showed the highest sensitivity, thus the most vulnerable to desertification. Based on the result of this study, it is useful to identify the current state of affairs and the necessity of land planning in Mongolia and Myanmar, one tool that can be utilized for combating desertification. The
Gauraz, A. L.; Valencia, N.; Koscielny, M.; Guillande, R.; Gardi, A.; Leone, F.; Salaun, T.
The assessment of damages caused by tsunami scenarios on coastal buildings requires using vulnerability matrixes or functions to carry out a relation between the magnitude of the phenomena and the damage expected. These functions represent the probability for a building belonging to a class of vulnerability to suffer from a mean damage level. The physical vulnerability of buildings depends on two parameters: the solicitation level applied by the tsunami on buildings and their resistance capacity. According to the authors after post-tsunami observations (Reese et al. 2007; Ruangrassamee et al. 2006; Leone et al. 2006; Peiris 2006), the level of damage is clearly linked to the water elevation of the inundated areas and the type of observed buildings. Very few works propose relations based on velocity or hydrodynamic pressure of the waves. An approach developed for the estimation of the building vulnerability consists in deriving empirical damage functions starting from field observations. As part of the SCHEMA European Project on the vulnerability assessment for tsunami hazards in the Atlantic and Mediterranean area, vulnerability functions have been elaborated for different classes of buildings in order to produce vulnerability maps for exposed areas with emphasis on extraction of building characteristics using remote sensing data. The damage detection has been carried out by field data collected after the 24 December 2006 tsunami event on the southwest area of Banda Aceh (Sumatra, Thailand) completed by photo-interpretation of satellite images to get representative functions with large population of samples. The building classes consist in several categories depending mainly on the type of construction material (timber/bamboo, traditional brick, reinforced concrete …), the type of structure (beam, pillars, etc) and the number of storeys. The level of damage has been also classified in five categories, from D0 (no damage) to D5 (total destruction). Vulnerability
Schwägele, F.C.; Andrée, S.; Beraquet, N.; Castrillon, M.; Winkel, C.; Garforth, D.; Cnossen, H.J.; Lucas Luijckx, N.B.; Ayalew, G.
The specific targeted European research project ΣChain (2006) addresses existing as well as potential vulnerabilities within food chains. One of the food chains within the focus of ΣChain is dealing with poultry meat. Fundamental for the assessment of potential vulnerabilities in the chain is basic
Full Text Available Across the world, numerous sites of cultural heritage value are at risk from a variety of human-induced and natural hazards such as war and earthquakes. Here we present and test a novel indicator-based method for assessing the vulnerability of archaeological sites to earthquakes. Vulnerability is approached as a dynamic element assessed through a combination of spatial and temporal parameters. The spatial parameters examine the susceptibility of the sites to the secondary Earthquake Environmental Effects of ground liquefaction, landslides and tsunami and are expressed through the Spatial Susceptibility Index (SSi. Parameters of physical vulnerability, economic importance and visitors density examine the temporal vulnerability of the sites expressed through the Temporal Vulnerability Index (TVi. The equally weighted sum of the spatial and temporal indexes represents the total Archaeological Site Vulnerability Index (A.S.V.I.. The A.S.V.I method is applied at 16 archaeological sites across Greece, allowing an assessment of their vulnerability. This then allows the establishment of a regional and national priority list for considering future risk mitigation. Results indicate that i the majority of the sites have low to moderate vulnerability to earthquake hazard, ii Neratzia Fortress on Kos and Heraion on Samos are characterised as highly vulnerable and should be prioritised for further studies and mitigation measures, and iii the majority of the sites are susceptible to at least one Earthquake Environmental Effect and present relatively high physical vulnerability attributed to the existing limited conservation works. This approach highlights the necessity for an effective vulnerability assessment methodology within the existing framework of disaster risk management for cultural heritage.
Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego
This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…
Kumar, Prashant; Thakur, Praveen K; Bansod, Baban Ks; Debnath, Sanjit K
Groundwater contamination assessment is a challenging task due to inherent complex dynamisms associated with the groundwater. DRASTIC is a very widely used rapid regional tool for the assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. DRASTIC has many lacunas in the form of subjectivities associated with weights and ratings of its hydro-geological parameters, and, therefore, the accuracy of the DRASTIC-based vulnerability map is questioned. The present study demonstrates the optimisation of the DRASTIC parameters along with a scientific consideration to the anthropogenic factors causing groundwater contamination. The resulting scientific consistent weights and ratings to DRASTIC parameters assist in the development of a very precise groundwater vulnerability map highlighting different zones of different gravity of contamination. One of the most important aspects of this study is that we have considered the impact of vadose zone in a very comprehensive manner by considering every sub-surface layer from the earth surface to the occurrence of groundwater. The study area for our experiment is Fatehgarh Sahib district of Punjab which is facing several groundwater issues.
Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lutfi; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Kolat, Cagil; Zaytsev, Andrey; Aytore, Betul
Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapı, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapı region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapı region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapı. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.
Graf, T.; Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.; Molson, J. W.
Several methods exist to assess intrinsic groundwater (re)source vulnerability for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management and protection. However, several methods are empirical and limited in their application to specific types of hydrogeological systems. Recent studies suggest that a physically-based approach could be better suited to provide a general, conceptual and operational basis for groundwater vulnerability assessment. A novel method for physically-based assessment of intrinsic aquifer vulnerability is currently under development and tested to explore the potential of an integrated modelling approach, combining groundwater travel time probability and future scenario modelling in conjunction with the fully integrated HydroGeoSphere model. To determine the intrinsic groundwater resource vulnerability, a fully coupled 2D surface water and 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow model in conjunction with a 3D geological model (GoCAD) has been developed for a case study of the Rivière Saint-Charles (Québec/Canada) regional scale, urban watershed. The model has been calibrated under transient flow conditions for the hydrogeological, variably-saturated subsurface system, coupled with the overland flow zone by taking into account monthly recharge variation and evapotranspiration. To better determine the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, two independent approaches are considered and subsequently combined in a simple, holistic multi-criteria-decision analyse. Most data for the model comes from an extensive hydrogeological database for the watershed, whereas data gaps have been complemented via field tests and literature review. The subsurface is composed of nine hydrofacies, ranging from unconsolidated fluvioglacial sediments to low permeability bedrock. The overland flow zone is divided into five major zones (Urban, Rural, Forest, River and Lake) to simulate the differences in landuse, whereas the unsaturated zone is represented via the model
Wang, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Jingyi; Ma, Qing
Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.
Andersen, L.J.; Gosk, E. (Geological Survey of Denmark, Copenhagen (Denmark))
A number of aspects to vulnerability maps are discussed: the vulnerability concept, mapping purposes, possible users, and applicability of vulnerability maps. Problems associated with general-type vulnerability mapping, including large-scale maps, universal pollutant, and universal pollution scenario are also discussed. An alternative approach to vulnerability assessment - specific vulnerability mapping for limited areas, specific pollutant, and predefined pollution scenario - is suggested. A simplification of the vulnerability concept is proposed in order to make vulnerability mapping more objective and by this means more comparable. An extension of the vulnerability concept to the rest of the hydrogeological cycle (lakes, rivers, and the sea) is proposed. Some recommendations regarding future activities are given.
Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz
The Three Gorges dam construction was completed in 2006. Besides the international media, also the responsible authorities and various scholarly communities pay close attention to potential and actual environmental impacts related to the impoundment and development activities. The geo-environment within the Three Gorges region is highly conducive to landslides. Consequently, a scientific monitoring and risk mitigation system was established and is still under development. Risk analysis with regard to gravity driven mass movements is highly complex and strongly site specific - several aspects hamper a universal methodology applicable for landslide risk and site assessment. The interdisciplinary Sino-German Yangtze-Project Research co-operation aims, among others, to support the sustainable cultivation of the newly developed ecosystems within the Yangtze catchments. Land use change and increasing population growth are causing severe pressure on the scarce land resources. Landslides are acknowledged as important threat, hence vulnerability of certain landscape components have to be identified, quantified and monitored. A nested quantitative approach for vulnerability analysis is developed. The applied risk and vulnerability model understands risk as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Whereas vulnerability is characterized by: mass movement intensity and susceptibility of the respective element at risk. The watershed of Xiangxi river serves as study area. In general, catchment approaches intent and proved to be a functional geographical unit for successful integrated resources management. Several limitations with regard to data accessibility, availability and accuracy have to be considered due to restrictions of feasible scales. Comprehensive large-scale site investigations are confined to training areas for model calibration and validation. Remote sensing potentials are utilised for land use/ land cover change analysis and localization of selected elements
Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William
sector. This method was developed through the cooperation of the many organizations and the individuals involved from the chemical sector RAMCAP development activities. The RAMCAP SVA method is intended to provide a common basis for making vulnerability assessments and risk-based decisions for homeland security. Mr. Moore serves as the coordinator for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and LNG sectors for the RAMCAP project and Dr. Jones is the chief technology officer for ASME-ITI, LLC for RAMCAP.
Moran, J E; Hudson, G B; Eaton, G F; Leif, R
In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MtBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Ambient Groundwater Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement this groundwater assessment program. In 2001 and 2002, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basins of Santa Clara County and San Mateo County, located to the south of the city of San Francisco. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3 method). In addition, stable oxygen isotope measurements
Effah Kwabena Antwi
Full Text Available The savannah regions of Northern Ghana are characterized by smallholder farming systems and high levels of poverty. Over the past two decades, communities in the regions have become more prone to climate and human-induced disasters in the form of annual floods and droughts. This study evaluates the degree and magnitude of vulnerability in four communities subjected to similar climate change induced flood events and propose intervention options. The study employs rural participatory research approaches in developing four vulnerability categories namely socio-economic, ecological, engineering and political; which were used to develop indicators that aided the calculation of total community vulnerability index for each community. The findings indicate that the state of a community's vulnerability to flood is a composite effect of the four vulnerability index categories which may act independently or concurrently to produce the net effect. Based on a synthesis of total vulnerability obtained in each community, Baleufili was found to be the least vulnerable to flood due to its high scores in engineering, socio-economic and political vulnerability indicators. Baleufili and Bankpama were the most ecologically vulnerable communities. The selection of vulnerability index categories and associated indicators were grounded in specific local peculiarities that evolved out of engagement with community stakeholders and expert knowledge of the socioecological landscape. Thus, the Total Community Vulnerability Assessment Framework (TCVAF provides an effective decision support for identifying communities’ vulnerability status and help to design both short and long term interventions options that are community specific as a way of enhancing their coping and adaptive capacity to disasters.
A. Paige Fischer; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll; Daniel Murphy; Hannah Brenkert-Smith
Public land management agencies have incorporated the concept of vulnerability into protocols for assessing and planning for climate change impacts on public forests and grasslands. However, resource managers and planners have little guidance for how to address the social aspects of vulnerability in these assessments and plans. Failure to assess social vulnerability to...
Kokkinos, Dimitris; Prinos, Panagiotis
Assessing the vulnerability to erosion is an important step in order to identify the prone areas and propose an adaptation policy to climate change in coastal areas. In this paper two coastal areas at the Northern part of the Aegean Sea are selected to examine their vulnerability to erosion. The first case is Lesbos Island where the most common feature is pocket beaches and the second one is the coast of Thrace composed by long sandy beaches. In both case studies, the same simplified methodology proposed by Mendoza and Jimenez (2009) is used, which links the vulnerability to erosion with morphodynamic parameters such as beach retreat and beach width. The key parameter for the vulnerability assessment is the beach retreat. For its calculation two different approaches are used and compared. The first approach divides the eroded volume with the eroded depth and it is based on an empirical formula, derived for the Greek seas from the CCSEAWAVS project (Kokkinos et al, 2014), which links the eroded volume with JA parameter, a beach erosion predictor proposed by Jimenez (1993). The sediment fall velocity, the beach slope and the wave characteristics are the only necessary parameters to calculate JA. The second approach is based on the results derived from the numerical model Xbeach (Roelvink et al., 2009), which is an open source, state-of the-art, two-dimensional model including the hydrodynamic processes of short and long wave transformation, wave-induced setup, overwash, inundation, as well as the morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching. The results indicate that the area of Thrace is very prone to erosion at the eastern and western part of the study area, while the Island of Lesbos appears to have very low vulnerability. The application of this methodology with the two different approaches aims to generate useful information about the vulnerability to erosion, to examine the reliability of
Koutroulis, A G; Papadimitriou, L V; Grillakis, M G; Tsanis, I K; Wyser, K; Betts, R A
As freshwater availability is crucial for securing a sustainable, lower‑carbon future, there is a critical connection between water management and climate policies. Under a rapidly changing climate, it is more important than ever to estimate the degree of future water security. This is a challenging task as it depends on many different variables: the degree of warming and its consequent effects on hydrological resources, the water demand by different sectors, and the possible ameliorations or deteriorations of the effects due to climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. A simple and transparent conceptual framework has been developed to assess the European vulnerability to freshwater stress under the present hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions, in comparison to projections of future vulnerability for different degrees of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C), under the high-rate warming scenario (RCP8.5). Different levels of adaptation to climate change are considered in the framework, by employing various relevant pathways of socioeconomic development. A spatially detailed pan-European map of vulnerability to freshwater shortage has been developed at the local administrative level, making this approach extremely useful for supporting regional level policymaking and implementation and strategic planning against future freshwater stress. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Du, Yan; Ding, Yibo; Li, Zixiong; Cao, Guangwen
China is prone to disasters and escalating disaster losses. Effective disaster mitigation is the foundation for efficient disaster response and rescue and for reducing the degree of hazardous impacts on the population. Vulnerability refers to the population's capacity to anticipate, cope with, and recover from the impact of a hazardous event. A hazard vulnerability assessment (HVA) systematically evaluates the damage that could be caused by a potential disaster, the severity of the impact, and the available medical resources during a disaster to reduce population vulnerability and increase the capacity to cope with disasters. In this article, we summarized HVA team membership, content (disaster identification, probability and consequences), and methods and procedures for an HVA that can be tailored to China's needs. We further discussed the role of epidemiology in an HVA. Disaster epidemiology studies the underlying causes of disasters to achieve effective disaster prevention and reduction. In addition, we made several recommendations that are already in practice in developed countries, such as the U.S., for future implementation in China and other developing countries. An effective HVA plan is crucial for successful disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.
Chust, Guillem; Albaina, Aitor; Aranburu, Aizkorri; Borja, Ángel; Diekmann, Onno E.; Estonba, Andone; Franco, Javier; Garmendia, Joxe M.; Iriondo, Mikel; Muxika, Iñigo; Rendo, Fernando; Rodríguez, J. Germán; Ruiz-Larrañaga, Otsanda; Serrão, Ester A.; Valle, Mireia
One of the main adaptation strategies to global change scenarios, aiming to preserve ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, is to maximize ecosystem resilience. The resilience of a species metapopulation can be improved by facilitating connectivity between local populations, which will prevent demographic stochasticity and inbreeding. This investigation estimated the degree of connectivity among estuarine species along the north-eastern Iberian coast, in order to assess community vulnerability to global change scenarios. To address this objective, two connectivity proxy types have been used based upon genetic and ecological drift processes: 1) DNA markers for the bivalve cockle (Cerastoderma edule) and seagrass Zostera noltei, and 2) the decrease in the number of species shared between two sites with geographic distance. Neutral biodiversity theory predicts that dispersal limitation modulates this decrease, and this has been explored in estuarine plants and macroinvertebrates. Results indicate dispersal limitation for both saltmarsh plants and seagrass beds community and Z. noltei populations; this suggests they are especially vulnerable to expected climate changes on their habitats. In contrast, unstructured spatial pattern found in macroinvertebrate communities and in C. edule genetic populations in the area suggests that estuarine soft-bottom macroinvertebrates with planktonic larval dispersal strategies may have a high resilience capacity to moderate changes within their habitats. Our findings allow environmental managers to prioritize the most vulnerable species and habitats to be restored.
Full Text Available This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011, focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report provides the results of the Refuge Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) for the Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge and Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge...
Ines Alberico; Vincenzo Di Fiore; Roberta Iavarone; Paola Petrosino; Luigi Piemontese; Daniela Tarallo; Michele Punzo; Ennio Marsella
.... Within this framework, a GIS-aided procedure that takes advantage of spatial analysis to apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment model of urban environments is presented, with the main...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data represent two outputs from the Northeast Fisheries Climate Vulnerability assessment. The first are the biological sensitivity and climate exposure scores...
Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman
Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.
Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Full Text Available This study describes four statistical models—Poisson; Negative Binomial; Zero-Inflated Poisson; and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial—which were devised in order to examine traffic accidents and estimate the best probability estimating model in terms of future risk assessment at interurban road sections. The study was conducted on four sets of fixed-length sections of the road network: 500, 750, 1000, and 1500 m. The contribution of transportation and spatial parameters as predictors of road accident rates was evaluated for all four data sets separately. In addition, the Empirical Bayes method was applied. This method uses historical accidents information, allowing regression to the mean phenomenon so as to improve model results. The study was performed using Geographic Information System (GIS software. Other analyses, such as statistical analyses combined with spatial parameters, interactions, and examination of other geographical areas, were also performed. The results showed that the short road sections data sets of 500 and 750 m yielded the most stable models. This allows focused treatment on short sections of the road network as a way to save resources (enforcement; education and information; finance and potentially gain maximum benefit at minimum investment. It was found that the significant parameters affecting accident rates are: curvature of the road section; the region and traffic volume. An interaction between the region and traffic volume was also found.
Luna, Byron Quan; Blahut, Jan; Camera, Corrado; van Westen, Cees; Sterlacchini, Simone; Apuani, Tiziana; Akbas, Sami
For a quantitative risk assessment framework it is essential to assess not only the hazardous process itself but to perform an analysis of their consequences. This quantitative assessment should include the expected monetary losses as the product of the probability of occurrence of a hazard with a given magnitude and its vulnerability. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and risk is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results are then applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. The risk assessment has been conducted in the Valtellina Valley, a typical Italian alpine valley lying in northern Italy (Lombardy Region). On 13th July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of valley between Morbegno and Berbenno. One of the largest debris flows occurred in Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. Also inside the Valtellina valley, between the 22nd and the 23rd of May 1983, two debris flows happened in Tresenda (Teglio municipality), causing casualties and considerable economic damages. On the same location, during the 26th of November 2002, another debris flow occurred that caused significant damage. For the quantification of a new scenario, the outcome results obtained from the event of Selvetta were applied in Tresenda. The Selvetta and Tresenda event were modelled with the FLO2D program. FLO2D is an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The significance of
Wang, Zhuoyang; Hill, David J.; Chen, Guo; Dong, Zhao Yang
When a single failure occurs in a vulnerable part of a power system, this may cause a large area cascading event. Therefore, an advanced method that can assess the risks during cascading events is needed. In this paper, an improved complex network model for power system risk assessment is proposed. Risk is defined by consequence and probability of the failures in this model, which are affected by both power factors and network structure. Compared with existing risk assessment models, the proposed one can evaluate the risk of the system comprehensively during a cascading event by combining the topological and electrical information. A new cascading event simulation module is adopted to identify the power grid cascading chain from a system-level view. In addition, simulations are investigated on the IEEE 14 bus system and IEEE 39 bus system respectively to illustrate the performance of the proposed module. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in a power grid risk assessment during cascading event.
Wehner, Martin; Ginger, John; Holmes, John; Sandland, Carl; Edwards, Mark
Knowledge of the degree of damage to residential structures expected from severe wind is used to study the benefits from adaptation strategies developed in response to expected changes in wind severity due to climate change. This study will inform government, the insurance industry and provide emergency services with estimates of expected damage. A series of heuristic wind vulnerability curves for Australian residential structures has been developed. In order to provide rigor to the heuristic curves and to enable quantitative assessment to be made of adaptation strategies, work has commenced to produce a simulation tool to quantitatively assess damage to buildings from severe wind. The simulation tool accounts for variability in wind profile, shielding, structural strength, pressure coefficients, building orientation, component self weights, debris damage and water ingress via a Monte Carlo approach. The software takes a component-based approach to modelling building vulnerability. It is based on the premise that overall building damage is strongly related to the failure of key components (i.e. connections). If these failures can be ascertained, and associated damage from debris and water penetration reliably estimated, scenarios of complete building damage can be assessed. This approach has been developed with varying degrees of rigor by researchers around the world and is best practice for the insurance industry.
Prasad, Ranjeet Kumar; Singh, V S; Krishnamacharyulu, S K G; Banerjee, Pallavi
Geographic information system (GIS) has become one of the leading tools in the field of hydrogeological science that helps in assessing, monitoring, and conserving groundwater resources. Groundwater is a finite resource, which is being overexploited due to increase in demand over the years leading to decrease in its potentiality. In the present study, DRASTIC model has been used to prepare groundwater vulnerable zone in hard rock aquifer of granitic terrain. The main objective is to determine susceptible zone for groundwater pollution by integrating hydrogeological layers in GIS environment. The layers such as depth of aquifer, recharge, aquifer yield, soil type, topography, vadose zone, and transmissivity are incorporated in the DRASTIC model. The final output of the map shows that around 60% of the area falls under low to no risk of pollution zone. The high risk of pollution zones are mostly present towards the margin of southeastern periphery. The lower part of the basin as well as small area on northern side falls under moderate risk of pollution zone. For the assessment of groundwater pollution zone, 24 groundwater samples have been collected from different vulnerable zones. The chemical analysis of sample shows that the southeastern margin of basin has relatively high concentration of nitrate as compared to other parts of the basin. It is present in high pollution zone as well as moderate pollution zone. The present model can be used for assessment and management of groundwater.
Wang, R; Song, Y; Fan, Z; You, X
Tarim River Basin (TRB) is one of ecological environment vulnerable areas. Due to the matching of material and energy existed in some problems, the different fragility characteristics occurred obviously. According to related principles of ecological environment quality assessment, combined with ecological environment situation of Tarim River Basin, 20 indexes were selected, and the indicator system for synthetically ecological environment assessment was built. Moreover, ecological fragility index was set up, which can be used to indicate the degree of ecological environment quality in Tarim River Basin. The results were as follows: Aksu River Basin belongs to improved area. Yerkart River Basin and the upper reaches of TRB belongs to balance areas and Hetian River Basin and the middle reaches of TRB belongs to maladjustment areas. The lower reaches of TRB belongs to severe damage area. The assessment results are consonant with actual situation, which play an important function in ecological environment construction.
Tuberville, Tracey D.; Andrews, Kimberly M.; Sperry, Jinelle H.; Grosse, Andrew M.
Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.
Tuberville, Tracey D; Andrews, Kimberly M; Sperry, Jinelle H; Grosse, Andrew M
Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.
Joshua Steven Reece
Full Text Available Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri, Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii, Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis, and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium. We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.
Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.
Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability
Foden, Wendy B; Butchart, Stuart H M; Stuart, Simon N; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A; Hughes, Adrian F; O'Hanlon, Susannah E; Garnett, Stephen T; Sekercioğlu, Cagan H; Mace, Georgina M
Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can
Wendy B Foden
Full Text Available Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species. The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%, 670-933 amphibian (11-15%, and 47-73 coral species (6-9% are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability
Foti, R.; Miller, S. M.; Montalto, F. A.
As climate changes and population living along the coastlines continues to increase, an understanding of coastal risk and vulnerability to extreme events becomes increasingly important. With as many as 700,000 people living less than 3 m above the high tide line, New York City (NYC) represents one of the most threatened among major world cities. Recent events, most notably Hurricane Sandy, have put a tremendous pressure on the mosaic of economic, environmental, and social activities occurring in NYC at the interface between land and water. Using information on property damages collected by the Civil Air Patrol (CAP) after Hurricane Sandy, we developed a machine-learning based model able to identify the primary factors determining the occurrence and the severity of damages and intended to both assess and predict coastal vulnerability. The available dataset consists of categorical classifications of damages, ranging from 0 (not damaged) to 5 (damaged and flooded), and available for a sample of buildings in the NYC area. A set of algorithms, such as Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest, were trained on 75% of the available dataset and tested on the remaining 25%, both training and test sets being picked at random. A combination of factors, including elevation, distance from shore, surge depth, soil type and proximity to key topographic features, such as wetlands and parks, were used as predictors. Trained algorithms were able to achieve over 85% prediction accuracy on both the training set and, most notably, the test set, with as few as six predictors, allowing a realistic depiction of the field of damage. Given their accuracy and robustness, we believe that these algorithms can be successfully applied to provide fields of coastal vulnerability for future extreme events, as well as to assess the consequences of changes, whether intended (e.g. land use change) or contingent (e.g. sea level rise), in the physical layout of NYC.
Flynn, M. J.
Cape Hatteras National Seashore is located along the Outer Banks, a narrow string of barrier islands in eastern North Carolina. The seashore was established to preserve cultural and natural resources of national significance, yet these islands have shoreline rates of change that are predominately erosional, frequently experience storm surge inundation driven by tropical and extra-tropical storm events, and are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. The National Park Service staff are concerned about the vulnerability of historic structures located within the park, and recognized the utility of a coastal hazard risk assessment to assist park managers with long-term planning. They formed a cooperative agreement with researchers at East Carolina University to conduct the assessment, which primarily used GIS to evaluate the susceptibility of 27 historical structures to coastal erosion, storm surge, and sea-level rise. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to calculate a linear regression rate of shoreline movement based on historical shorelines. Those rates were used to simulate the future position of the shoreline along transects. The SLOSH model output was down scaled to a DEM generated from the 2014 NC QL2 LiDAR collection to determine the extent and depth of inundation that would occur from storm events. Sea level rise was modeled for various scenarios referenced to existing MHHW, and also added to each SLOSH model output to determine the effect of a storm event under those sea level rise scenarios. Risk maps were developed to include not only areal coverage for existing structures and districts, but also identify potential areas of relocation or retreat in the long-term. In addition to evaluating vulnerability, timelines for potential impacts provided scenarios for National Park Service staff to research adaption and mitigation strategies.
Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Frison-Bruno, Nikita; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Madelin, Malika; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles
The Upper Guil catchment is particularly prone to hydromorphological hazards such as torrential floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches. Following the catastrophic events of the last 60 years (1957, 1978, 2000, and 2008), some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, the development of urban settlement in endangered areas and the obsolescence of the existing protective measures revealed the necessity to reassess the vulnerability of the different stakes exposed to hazards and to take into account of these various component parts of the vulnerability (not only physical but also social, etc.). In addition, catastrophic events should be more frequent in the French Southern Alps, according to the last GIEC report. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment in a context of global change, we developed a systemic approach to assess three specific components of vulnerability - physical, social and institutional - for the six municipalities of the Upper Guil catchment (Ristolas, Abriès, Aiguilles, Château-Ville-Vieille, Molines-en-Queyras and St-Véran). Physical vulnerability, which represents total potential consequences of hazards on stakes, was estimated and mapped using a GIS model based on an empirical semi-quantitative indicator, the Potential Damage Index (PDI). This index allowed us to quantify and describe both direct (physical injury, structural and functional damage on buildings, network and land cover) and indirect consequences (socio-economic impacts) induced by hazards, by combining weighted parameters (age, state, material, function, etc.) reflecting the exposure of elements at risk. At least 1890 buildings, 367 km² of land cover and 902 km of linear infrastructure were considered. To assess social and institutional vulnerability our approach was based on questionnaires (5% of the total population investigated), interviews and
Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani
Full Text Available Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of Oman, are vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts of environmental and climate change. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes are exerting pressures and have direct impacts on increasing demands for water resources and their vulnerability. In this study, vulnerability assessment was carried out using guidelines prepared by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and Peking University to evaluate four components of the water resource system: water resources stress, water development pressure, ecological health, and management capacity. The calculated vulnerability index (VI was high, indicating that the water resources are experiencing levels of stress. Ecosystem deterioration was the dominant parameter and management capacity was the dominant category driving the vulnerability on water resources. The vulnerability assessment will support policy and decision makers in evaluating options to modify existing policies. It will also help in developing long-term strategic plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures and implement effective policies for sustainable water resources management, and therefore the sustenance of human wellbeing in the region.
Momjian, Nanor; Abou Najm, Majdi; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem
Groundwater vulnerability assessment models are invariably coupled with Geographic Information Systems to provide decision makers with easier visualization of complex systems. In this study, we examine the uncertainty associated with such models (DRASTIC, EPIK) in assessing seawater intrusion, a growing threat along coastal urban cities due to overexploitation of groundwater resources associated with population growth and more recently, exacerbated by climate change impacts. For this purpose, a mapping of groundwater vulnerability was first conducted at a country level (Lebanon) and coupled with a groundwater quality monitoring program in three coastal cities for cross-validation. Then, six water quality categories were defined and mapped based on water quality standards ranging from drinking to seawater with weighted scores assigned for each category in both DRASTIC and EPIK for cross-validation. Finally, the results of groundwater quality tests were compared with vulnerability predictions at sampling points using two indicators (Chloride and TDS). While field measurements demonstrated the high vulnerability to seawater intrusion in coastal urbanized areas, the modelling results exhibited variations from field measurements reaching up to two water quality categories. Vertical-based vulnerability models demonstrated poor correlation when the anthropogenic impact was introduced through a process that depends on lateral groundwater flow thus highlighting (1) the limited ability of such models to capture vulnerability to lateral seawater intrusion induced primarily by vertical groundwater withdrawal, and (2) the need to incorporate depth and underlying lithology into the layers of groundwater vulnerability models when examining horizontally induced contamination such as seawater intrusion.
Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan
Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national
Full Text Available Since the introduction of the new concepts of plaque vulnerability and patient vulnerability, many researchers have focused on different biomarkers that can represent predictors for coronary plaque instability. One of the features that characterize the vulnerable coronary plaque is positive remodeling, which can be easily identified by computed tomography angiography, a noninvasive procedure, or by other invasive methods such as intravascular ultrasound. This review aims to describe the assessment of positive remodeling as a marker of coronary plaque instability and the differences between computed tomography angiography and intravascular ultrasound in investigating this new biomarker.
Del Giudice, G; Padulano, R; Siciliano, D
The lack of geometrical and hydraulic information about sewer networks often excludes the adoption of in-deep modeling tools to obtain prioritization strategies for funds management. The present paper describes a novel statistical procedure for defining the prioritization scheme for preventive maintenance strategies based on a small sample of failure data collected by the Sewer Office of the Municipality of Naples (IT). Novelty issues involve, among others, considering sewer parameters as continuous statistical variables and accounting for their interdependences. After a statistical analysis of maintenance interventions, the most important available factors affecting the process are selected and their mutual correlations identified. Then, after a Box-Cox transformation of the original variables, a methodology is provided for the evaluation of a vulnerability map of the sewer network by adopting a joint multivariate normal distribution with different parameter sets. The goodness-of-fit is eventually tested for each distribution by means of a multivariate plotting position. The developed methodology is expected to assist municipal engineers in identifying critical sewers, prioritizing sewer inspections in order to fulfill rehabilitation requirements.
Full Text Available In this paper is presented intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the aquifer in the Rižana spring chatcment by the method SINTACS. It is parametric method that takes into consideration seven parameters (depth to ground water, effective infiltration action, unsaturatedzone attenuation capacity, soil/overburden attenuation capacity, hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer, hydraulic conductivity range of aquifer, hydrologic role of the topographic slope. Parameters are presented in grid information layers that wereelaborated on the basis of interpretation and GIS processing of geological, hydrogeological,speleological, topographical, meteorological and pedological data. According to the parametersimportance for vulnerability assessment, a multiplier (importance weight was assigned to each parameter. Final map of vulnerability is a result of overlaying (summing of weighted information layers (parameters and shows the catchment area of the Rižanaspring subdivided into six vulnerability classes.
Arosio, Marcello; Martina, Mario L. V.
The emergent behaviour of the contemporary complex, socio-technical and interconnected society makes the collective risk greater than the sum of the parts and this requires a holistic, systematic and integrated approach. Although there have been major improvements in recent years, there are still some limitation in term of a holistic approach that is able to include the emergent value hidden in the connections between exposed elements and the interactions between the different spheres of the multi-hazards, vulnerability, exposure and resilience. To deal with these challenges it is necessary to consider the connections between the exposed elements (e.g. populations, schools, hospital, etc.) and to quantify the relative importance of the elements and their interconnections (e.g. the need of injured people to go to hospital or children to school). In a system (e.g. road, hospital and ecological network, etc.), or in a System of System (e.g. socio-technical urban service), there are critical elements that, beyond the intrinsic vulnerability, can be characterized by greater or lower vulnerability because of their physical, geographical, cyber or logical connections. To this aim, we propose in this study a comparative analysis between traditional reductionist approach and a new holistic approach to vulnerability assessment to natural hazards. The analysis considers a study case of a socio-economic complex system through an innovative approach based on the properties of graph G=(N,L). A graph consists of two sets N (nodes) and L (links): the nodes represent the single exposed elements (physical, social, environmental, etc.) to a hazard, while the links (or connections) represent the interaction between the elements. The final goal is to illustrate an application of this innovative approach of integrated collective vulnerability assessment.
Regan, Siôn; Smith, Hugh
Riverbank erosion is a natural process involved in floodplain development, but can have negative impacts such as excessive sediment supply to the river channel, undermining infrastructure and eroding valuable agricultural land. Catchment managers often work with limited budgets and for remediation efforts to be the most effective they should be targeted in areas that are at the highest risk of suffering excessive riverbank erosion. Recent developments in high resolution spatial data capture, such as aerial LiDAR have allowed for much more detailed representation of the riparian area, including the channel location and riparian vegetation. This presentation will propose a new dimensionless index that has been developed to identify and rank sections of river channel according to erosion vulnerability. The index combines information on channel position, slope and curvature extracted from LiDAR-derived DEMs with riparian vegetation cover. It also accounts for the extent of lateral confinement limiting erosion and bank silt-clay composition influencing erodibility. The index is designed to be applied to alluvial channels across large catchments (>500 km2) to support the identification riverbank erosion 'hotspots' at the reach scale (approximating 50-200 m intervals). The performance of the vulnerability index in discriminating actively eroding and non-eroding channel reaches was assessed in the River Lugg catchment, UK. Historic mapping and aerial photographs were used to determine the channel position, slope and riparian vegetation coverage in the 1960s. The index was then calculated for the historic river channel position and compared with ranked metrics of lateral channel change that occurred between the 1960s and present. This approach provides a basis for evaluating the utility of a simple vulnerability index that could be used for prioritising the location of future investments to reduce excessive riverbank erosion in large catchments.
Hurst, R.C.; McGarry, D. [EC/JRC Institute for Advanced Materials, Petten (Netherlands); Pedersen, H.H. [Brite Euram DG XII, Brussels (Belgium)
The Plant Life Assessment Network (PLAN) is a Brite Euram Type II Thematic Network, initiated by the European Commission to facilitate structured co-operation between all cost shared action projects already funded by the Commission which fall under this common technical theme. The projects involved address a multiplicity of problems associated with plant life assessment and are drawn from Brite-Euram, Standards, Measurement and Testing, Nuclear Fission Safety and Esprit EC programmes. The main aim of the Network is to initiate, maintain and monitor a fruitful co-operation process between completed, ongoing and future EC R and D projects, thereby promoting improved cross fertilization and enhanced industrial exploitation of R and D results. As the project is in its infancy, this presentation covers the background to the initiative in some detail. In particular two key aspects are highlighted, namely, the requirement of the EC to launch such a network in the area of plant life assessment including its evolution from two small Thematic Research Actions and, secondly, the mechanism for structuring the Network in an ordered and proven way along the lines of the EC/JRC European Networks, PISC, NESC, AMES, ENIQ, ENAIS and EPERC. The operating and financial structure of the Network is detailed with reference made to the role of the executive Steering Committee, The Network Project Leader and the Network Financial Co-ordinator. Each of the 58 projects involved in the Network, representing a wide range of industrial sectors and disciplines, is distributed in terms of their efforts between 4 disciplinary Clusters covering Inspection, Instrumentation and Monitoring, Structural Mechanics and Maintenance. For each of these Clusters, an expert has been appointed as a Project Technical Auditor to support the elected Cluster Co-ordinator to define Cluster Tasks, which contribute to the overall objectives of the project. From the Project Representatives, Cluster Task Leaders and
Wang, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Jingyi; Ma, Qing
Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The ris...
Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.
Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.
Abbott, K. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Jannik, T. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)
Three methodologies have been used to assess the effectiveness of the existing ambient air monitoring system in place at the Savannah River Site in Aiken, SC. Effectiveness was measured using two metrics that have been utilized in previous quantification of air-monitoring network performance; frequency of detection (a measurement of how frequently a minimum number of samplers within the network detect an event), and network intensity (a measurement of how consistent each sampler within the network is at detecting events). In addition to determining the effectiveness of the current system, the objective of performing this assessment was to determine what, if any, changes could make the system more effective. Methodologies included 1) the Waite method of determining sampler distribution, 2) the CAP88- PC annual dose model, and 3) a puff/plume transport model used to predict air concentrations at sampler locations. Data collected from air samplers at SRS in 2015 compared with predicted data resulting from the methodologies determined that the frequency of detection for the current system is 79.2% with sampler efficiencies ranging from 5% to 45%, and a mean network intensity of 21.5%. One of the air monitoring stations had an efficiency of less than 10%, and detected releases during just one sampling period of the entire year, adding little to the overall network intensity. By moving or removing this sampler, the mean network intensity increased to about 23%. Further work in increasing the network intensity and simulating accident scenarios to further test the ambient air system at SRS is planned
Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin
Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization
Bergstrand, Kelly; Mayer, Brian; Brumback, Babette; Zhang, Yi
This article contributes to the disaster literature by measuring and connecting two concepts that are highly related but whose relationship is rarely empirically evaluated: social vulnerability and community resilience. To do so, we measure community resilience and social vulnerability in counties across the United States and find a correlation between high levels of vulnerability and low levels of resilience, indicating that the most vulnerable counties also tend to be the least resilient. W...
Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.
21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.
Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.
A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability
Shao, Huaiyong, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Key Laboratory of Geoscience Spatial Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resources of China, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan (China); Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI (United States); Sun, Xiaofei; Wang, Haoxue; Zhang, Xiaoxue [Key Laboratory of Geoscience Spatial Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resources of China, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan (China); Xiang, Zhiying [School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, Zhejiang (China); Tan, Rui; Chen, Xuanyi [Key Laboratory of Geoscience Spatial Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resources of China, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan (China); Xian, Wei [College of Resources and Environment, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, Sichuan (China); Qi, Jiaguo [Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI (United States)
The Chinese government has conducted the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) across large portions of grasslands from western China since 2003. In order to explore and understand the impact in the grassland's eco-environment during the RGLGP, we utilized Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop a spatial assessment model to examine the ecological vulnerability of the grassland. Our results include five indications: (1) it is practical to apply the spatial PPM on ecological vulnerability assessment for the grassland. This methodology avoids creating an artificial hypothesis, thereby providing objective results that successfully execute a multi-index assessment process and analysis under non-linear systems in eco-environments; (2) the spatial PPM is not only capable of evaluating regional eco-environmental vulnerability in a quantitative way, but also can quantitatively demonstrate the degree of effect in each evaluation index for regional eco-environmental vulnerability; (3) the eco-environment of the Xianshui River Basin falls into the medium range level. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use cover and change (LUCC) crucially influence the Xianshui River Basin's eco-environmental vulnerability. Generally, in the Xianshui River Basin, regional eco-environmental conditions improved during 2000 and 2010. The RGLGP positively affected NDVI and LUCC structure, thereby promoting the enhancement of the regional eco-environment; (4) the Xianshui River Basin divides its ecological vulnerability across different levels; therefore our study investigates three ecological regions and proposes specific suggestions for each in order to assist in eco-environmental protection and rehabilitation; and lastly that (5) the spatial PPM established by this study has the potential to be applied on all types of grassland eco-environmental vulnerability assessments under the RGLGP and under the
34 Figure 2. Steps to Exploit Social Networking Media of Information-Gathering This social networking media and “ deep Web ” search9 information...networking media to discover that the CEO and junior manager having a strong 9 Deep web search engines...were not feasible for widespread use for a large organization’s employees. Two of the respondents, with firms that conduct deep Web searches and
Full Text Available Maps of areas with different vulnerability degrees are an integral part of environmental protection and management policies. It is difficult to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas since the stage and type of karst structure development and its related underground discharge behaviour are not easy to determine. Therefore, some improvements, which take into account dolines, caves and superficial lineament arrangement, have been integrated into the SINTACS R5 method and applied to a karst area of the south-eastern Murge (Apulia, southern Italy. The proposed approach integrates the SINTACS model giving more weight to morphological and structural data; in particular the following parameters have been modified: depth to groundwater, effective infiltration action, unsaturated zone attenuation capacity and soil/overburden attenuation capacity. Effective hydrogeological and impacting situations are also arranged using superficial lineaments and karst density. In order to verify the reliability of the modified procedure, a comparison is made with the original SINTACS R5 index evaluated in the same area. The results of both SINTACS index maps are compared with karst and structural features identified in the area and with groundwater nitrate concentrations recorded in wells. The best fitting SINTACS map is then overlaid by the layout of potential pollution centres providing a complete map of the pollution risk in the area.
Kanakoudis, Vasilis; Tsitsifli, Stavroula; Papadopoulou, Anastasia; Cencur Curk, Barbara; Karleusa, Barbara
Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.
Full Text Available Resilience, vulnerability and adaptability have emerged as dominant concepts in the study of disturbance and change of social-ecological systems. We analyze the conceptual, methodological and operational aspects in using these concepts for the assessment and analysis of agricultural systems and try to identify differences and possible overlaps between them. The analysis is performed considering a number of published studies on agricultural systems over a wide geographical range where these concepts have been applied. Our results show a clear conceptual overlap and often the exchangeable use of the concepts. Furthermore, the driving methodological and operational criteria for their application could not be separated unambiguously. It was, thus, difficult to identify guiding principles for the operational application of the individual concepts. We stress that the operationalization of these concepts requires consistency in the approaches and protocols to ensure their coherent use. We also argue that the conceptual and operational integration of resilience, vulnerability and adaptability would perhaps lead to a more complete portrayal of the behavior of agricultural systems in changing situations. But this requires more research including the development of operational protocols for which the premises of complexity, participation and functionality seem key.
Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M
The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.
Mosuro, G. O.; Omosanya, K. O.; Bayewu, O. O.; Oloruntola, M. O.; Laniyan, T. A.; Atobi, O.; Okubena, M.; Popoola, E.; Adekoya, F.
This aim of this work is to assess the degree of leachate infiltration at a dumpsite in Agbara industrial estate, Southwestern Nigeria using electrical resistivity techniques. Around the dumpsite were 45 vertical electrical sounding (VES) stations and 3 electrical resistivity tomography profiles. Current electrode spread varied from 300 to 600 m for the electrical sounding. Electrode configuration includes Schlumberger and Wenner array for sounding and profiling. The state of leachate contamination was tested using parameters such as aquifer vulnerability index, overburden protective capacity and longitudinal unit conductance (S i) derived from the apparent resistivity values. Four principal geoelectric layers inferred from the VES data include the topsoil, sand, clayey sand, and clay/shale. Resistivity values for these layers vary from 3 to 1688, 203 to 3642 123 to 388, and 67 to 2201 Ω m with corresponding thickness of 0.8-2.4, 2.5-140, 3-26 m and infinity, respectively. The leachate plume occurs at a maximum depth of 10 m on the 2-D inverse models of real electrical resistivity with an average depth of infiltration being 6 m in the study area. The correlation between longitudinal conductance and overburden protective capacity show that aquifers around the dumpsite have poor protective capacity and are vulnerable to leachate contamination. Leachate infiltration is favored by the absence of lithological barriers such as clay which in the study area are either mixed with sand or positioned away from the aquifer.
Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai
This paper addresses the assessment of generalization performance of neural network models by use of empirical techniques. We suggest to use the cross-validation scheme combined with a resampling technique to obtain an estimate of the generalization performance distribution of a specific model...
Samson, Sue; Derry, Sebastian; Eggleston, Holly
This project provides a critical evaluation of networked resources as they relate to the library's collection development policy, identifies areas of the curriculum not well represented, establishes a reliable method of assessing usage across all resources, and develops a framework of quantitative data for collection development decision making.
Lin, Jian-Wei; Lai, Yuan-Cheng
Social network awareness (SNA) has been used extensively as one of the strategies to increase knowledge sharing and collaboration opportunities. However, most SNA studies either focus on being aware of peer's knowledge context or on social context. This work proposes online formative assessments with SNA, trying to address the problems of online…
Li, Yezhou; Ye, Xiang; Li, Yong
This paper proposes a method of accurately assessing image quality without a reference image by using a deep convolutional neural network. Existing training based methods usually utilize a compact set of linear filters for learning features of images captured by different sensors to assess their quality. These methods may not be able to learn the semantic features that are intimately related with the features used in human subject assessment. Observing this drawback, this work proposes training a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) with labelled images for image quality assessment. The ReLU in the CNN allows non-linear transformations for extracting high-level image features, providing a more reliable assessment of image quality than linear filters. To enable the neural network to take images of any arbitrary size as input, the spatial pyramid pooling (SPP) is introduced connecting the top convolutional layer and the fully-connected layer. In addition, the SPP makes the CNN robust to object deformations to a certain extent. The proposed method taking an image as input carries out an end-to-end learning process, and outputs the quality of the image. It is tested on public datasets. Experimental results show that it outperforms existing methods by a large margin and can accurately assess the image quality on images taken by different sensors of varying sizes.
Full Text Available Vulnerability to climate change of the Moldavian part of the Dniester river was assessed as the function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of its basin’s natural and socioeconomic systems. As a spatial “scale” of the assessment, Moldova’s administrative-territorial units (ATUs were selected. The exposure assessment was based on the climatic analysis of baseline (1971–2000 temperature and precipitation and projections of their changes in 2021–2050, separately for cold and warm periods. The sensitivity assessment included physiographical and socioeconomic characteristics, described by a set of specific indicators. The adaptive capacity was expressed by general economic and agricultural indicators, taking into consideration the medical provision and housing conditions. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks, arranged in an increasing and decreasing order, respectively. Due to lack of sound knowledge on these components' importance in overall assessment of vulnerability, their weights were taken as conventionally equal. Mapping of vulnerability revealed that ATUs neighboring to municipalities are the most vulnerable and need special attention in climate change adaptation. The basin’s “hotspots” were discussed with public participation.
de Vries, D.H.
Social models of population vulnerability to disasters increasingly include the notion that vulnerability has a strong temporal component. While this temporality is typically conceptualized as objective (making vulnerability "dynamic," "multiscalar," and/or "historical"), it consistently fails to
Pfaff Donald W
Full Text Available Abstract Background Current efforts to study the genetic underpinnings of higher brain functions have been lacking appropriate phenotypes to describe cognition. One of the problems is that many cognitive concepts for which there is a single word (e.g. attention have been shown to be related to several anatomical networks. Recently, we have developed an Attention Network Test (ANT that provides a separate measure for each of three anatomically defined attention networks. Results In this study we have measured the efficiency of neural networks related to aspects of attention using the ANT in a population of 200 adult subjects. We then examined genetic polymorphisms in four candidate genes (DRD4, DAT, COMT and MAOA that have been shown to contribute to the risk of developing various psychiatric disorders where attention is disrupted. We find modest associations of several polymorphisms with the efficiency of executive attention but not with overall performance measures such as reaction time. Conclusions These results suggest that genetic variation may underlie inter-subject variation in the efficiency of executive attention. This study also shows that genetic influences on executive attention may be specific to certain anatomical networks rather than affecting performance in a global or non-specific manner. Lastly, this study further validates the ANT as an endophenotypic assay suitable for assessing how genes influence certain anatomical networks that may be disrupted in various psychiatric disorders.
Full Text Available Guizhou Plateau is a region in China that typically shows the contradictory human-earth system. A vulnerability assessment indicator system was constructed to explore the coupled human-natural system characteristic of the karst landform based on the grey correlation analysis mathematic model. The quantitative assessment results show that Qiandongnan and Tongren Districts belong to the slight degree of the sensitivity evaluation index. Bijie district belongs to the middle degree and the other districts of Guizhou Plateau belong to the light degree. In terms of the exposure and resilience evaluation index, only Guiyang City belongs to the slight degree and other districts are in the middle degree. Thus, Guizhou Plateau could be divided into three level zones based on the comprehensive vulnerability degree of the