Peltier, Thomas R; Blackley, John A
Managing a Network Vulnerability Assessment provides a formal framework for finding and eliminating network security threats, ensuring that no vulnerabilities are overlooked. This thorough overview focuses on the steps necessary to successfully manage an assessment, including the development of a scope statement, the understanding and proper use of assessment methodology, the creation of an expert assessment team, and the production of a valuable response report. The book also details what commercial, freeware, and shareware tools are available, how they work, and how to use them.
Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant
.... The break out group discussed vulnerability presentation needs common across various application domains, particularly in support of network discovery and network analysis tasks in those domains...
Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant
To help understand a network and its ability to continue operating when under attack, the break out group discussed issues that need to be considered when presenting network vulnerability information...
Cassandras, Christos G; Gong, Weibo; Pepyne, David L; Lee, Wenke; Liu, Hong; Ho, Yu-Chi; Pfeffer, Avrom
The specific aims of this research is to develop theories, methodologies, tools, and implementable solutions for modeling, analyzing, designing, and securing information networks against information-based attack...
Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.
Mishkovski, Igor; Biey, Mario; Kocarev, Ljupco
We consider normalized average edge betweenness of a network as a metric of network vulnerability. We suggest that normalized average edge betweenness together with is relative difference when certain number of nodes and/or edges are removed from the network is a measure of network vulnerability, called vulnerability index. Vulnerability index is calculated for four synthetic networks: Erdős-Rényi (ER) random networks, Barabási-Albert (BA) model of scale-free networks, Watts-Strogatz (WS) model of small-world networks, and geometric random networks. Real-world networks for which vulnerability index is calculated include: two human brain networks, three urban networks, one collaboration network, and two power grid networks. We find that WS model of small-world networks and biological networks (human brain networks) are the most robust networks among all networks studied in the paper.
Kessel, Adam; Goodwin, Shane
The proliferation of wireless computer equipment and Local Area Networks (LANs) create an increasingly common and growing threat to Marine Corps Network infrastructure and communication security (COMSEC...
Kermanshah, A.; Derrible, S.
The purpose of this study is to provide a geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment method to quantify the impacts of extreme earthquakes on road networks. The method is applied to two US cities, Los Angeles and San Francisco, both of which are susceptible to severe seismic activities. Aided by the recent proliferation of data and the wide adoption of Geography Information Systems (GIS), we use a data-driven approach using USGS ShakeMaps to determine vulnerable locations in road networks. To simulate the extreme earthquake, we remove road sections within “very strong” intensities provided by USGS. Subsequently, we measure vulnerability as a percentage drop in four families of metrics: overall properties (length of remaining system); topological indicators (betweenness centrality); accessibility; and travel demand using Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. The various metrics are then plotted on a Vulnerability Surface (VS), from which the area can be assimilated to an overall vulnerability indicator. This VS approach offers a simple and pertinent method to capture the impacts of extreme earthquake. It can also be useful to planners to assess the robustness of various alternative scenarios in their plans to ensure that cities located in seismic areas are better prepared to face severe earthquakes. - Highlights: • Developed geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment method. • Quantify the impacts of extreme earthquakes on transportation networks. • Data-driven approach using USGS ShakeMaps to determine vulnerable locations. • Measure vulnerability as a percentage drop in four families of metrics: ○Overall properties. ○Topological indicators. ○Accessibility. ○Travel demand using Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. • Developed Vulnerability Surface (VS), a new pragmatic vulnerability indicator.
Aoki, T.; Ceravolo, R.; De Stefano, A.; Genovese, C.; Sabia, D.
A chemical industrial plant represents a sensitive presence in a region and, in case of severe damage due to earthquake actions, its impact on social life and environment can be devastating. From the structural point of view, chemical plants count a number of recurrent elements, which are classifiable in a discrete set of typological families (towers, chimneys, cylindrical or spherical or prismatic tanks, pipes etc.). The final aim of this work is to outline a general procedure to be followed in order to assign a seismic vulnerability estimate to each element of the various typological families. In this paper, F.E. simulations allowed to create a training set, which has been used to train a probabilistic neural system. A sample application has concerned the seismic vulnerability of simple spherical tanks
Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.
It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the
Report #10-P-0212, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Ronald Reagan Building network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.
Report #10-P-0210, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Andrew W. Breidenbach Environmental Research Center network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.
Report #09-P-0227, August 31, 2009. Vulnerability testing conducted in April 2009 of EPA’s Research Triangle Park Finance Center network identified Internet Protocol addresses with several highrisk vulnerabilities.
Havlin, S.; Kenett, D. Y.; Bashan, A.; Gao, J.; Stanley, H. E.
Our dependence on networks - be they infrastructure, economic, social or others - leaves us prone to crises caused by the vulnerabilities of these networks. There is a great need to develop new methods to protect infrastructure networks and prevent cascade of failures (especially in cases of coupled networks). Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How, and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against malicious attacks? The gradual increase in attacks on the networks society depends on - Internet, mobile phone, transportation, air travel, banking, etc. - emphasize the need to develop new strategies to protect and defend these crucial networks of communication and infrastructure networks. One example is the threat of liquid explosives a few years ago, which completely shut down air travel for days, and has created extreme changes in regulations. Such threats and dangers warrant the need for new tools and strategies to defend critical infrastructure. In this paper we review recent advances in the theoretical understanding of the vulnerabilities of interdependent networks with and without spatial embedding, attack strategies and their affect on such networks of networks as well as recently developed strategies to optimize and repair failures caused by such attacks.
Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.
As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential
Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea
Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial
Optimization of DRASTIC method by artificial neural network, nitrate vulnerability index, and composite DRASTIC models to assess groundwater vulnerability for unconfined aquifer of Shiraz Plain, Iran.
Baghapour, Mohammad Ali; Fadaei Nobandegani, Amir; Talebbeydokhti, Nasser; Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Chitsazan, Nima
Extensive human activities and unplanned land uses have put groundwater resources of Shiraz plain at a high risk of nitrate pollution, causing several environmental and human health issues. To address these issues, water resources managers utilize groundwater vulnerability assessment and determination of protection. This study aimed to prepare the vulnerability maps of Shiraz aquifer by using Composite DRASTIC index, Nitrate Vulnerability index, and artificial neural network and also to compare their efficiency. The parameters of the indexes that were employed in this study are: depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, and land use. These parameters were rated, weighted, and integrated using GIS, and then, used to develop the risk maps of Shiraz aquifer. The results indicated that the southeastern part of the aquifer was at the highest potential risk. Given the distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations from the wells in the underlying aquifer, the artificial neural network model offered greater accuracy compared to the other two indexes. The study concluded that the artificial neural network model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC index and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk. As intensive agricultural activities are the dominant land use and water table is shallow in the vulnerable zones, optimized irrigation techniques and a lower rate of fertilizers are suggested. The findings of our study could be used as a scientific basis in future for sustainable groundwater management in Shiraz plain.
Zhao, Jensen J.; Truell, Allen D.; Alexander, Melody W.; Woosley, Sherry A.
Objective: This study assessed the security vulnerability of the U.S. small companies' business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce network systems. Background: As the Internet technologies have been changing the way business is conducted, the U.S. small businesses are investing in such technologies and taking advantage of e-commerce to access global…
Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population) and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area), is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006). Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.
Orantes-Jiménez Sandra Dinora
Full Text Available Nowadays, measuring the impact and effectiveness of Social Networks is important for people who use them in an individual manner, due to social or academic interests, as well as for companies that use them to evaluate or promote their products and businesses. Particularly, it is necessary to monitor and evaluate qualitatively and quantitatively, if possible, this tool that is used for the dissemination of information of any kind. We have tried to create an instrument that aims to validate the reliability of social networks, taking Facebook our case study because it is one of the most widely used currently. This instrument is a tool that measures the "information vulnerability"; information that people decide to upload to the Internet as part of a social network. Regarding validity, a suitable solution focused on four factors was found: legality (self-regulation, social factors, psychological factors, and finally technology. It was concluded that the proposed mechanism can be a useful instrument that detects the information vulnerability storage in each social network.
Liu, Xueming; Peng, Hao; Gao, Jianxi
Network science is a highly interdisciplinary field ranging from natural science to engineering technology and it has been applied to model complex systems and used to explain their behaviors. Most previous studies have been focus on isolated networks, but many real-world networks do in fact interact with and depend on other networks via dependency connectivities, forming “networks of networks” (NON). The interdependence between networks has been found to largely increase the vulnerability of interacting systems, when a node in one network fails, it usually causes dependent nodes in other networks to fail, which, in turn, may cause further damage on the first network and result in a cascade of failures with sometimes catastrophic consequences, e.g., electrical blackouts caused by the interdependence of power grids and communication networks. The vulnerability of a NON can be analyzed by percolation theory that can be used to predict the critical threshold where a NON collapses. We review here the analytic framework for analyzing the vulnerability of NON, which yields novel percolation laws for n-interdependent networks and also shows that percolation theory of a single network studied extensively in physics and mathematics in the last 50 years is a specific limited case of the more general case of n interacting networks. Understanding the mechanism behind the cascading failure in NON enables us finding methods to decrease the vulnerability of the natural systems and design of more robust infrastructure systems. By examining the vulnerability of NON under targeted attack and studying the real interdependent systems, we find two methods to decrease the systems vulnerability: (1) protect the high-degree nodes, and (2) increase the degree correlation between networks. Furthermore, the ultimate proof of our understanding of natural and technological systems is reflected in our ability to control them. We also review the recent studies and challenges on the
Full Text Available Due to their vast spread, sewerage networks are exposed to considerable damages during severe earthquakes, which may lead to catastrophic environmental contamination. Multiple repairs in the pipelines, including pipe and joint fractures, could be costly and time-consuming. In seismic risk management, it is of utmost importance to have an intelligent tool for assessing seismic vulnerability index at any given point in time for such important utilities as sewerage networks. This study uses a weight-factor methodology and proposes an online GIS-based intelligent algorithm to evaluate the seismic vulnerability index (VI for metropolitan sewerage networks. The proposed intelligent tool is capable of updating VI as the sewerage network conditions may change with time and at different locations. The city of Shahr-e-Kord located on the high risk seismic belt is selected for a case study to which the proposed methodology is applied for zoning the vulnerability index in GIS. Results show that the overall seismic vulnerability index for the selected study area ranges from low to medium but that it increases in the southern parts of the city, especially in the old town where brittle pipes have been laid
This assessment of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter vulnerability was requested by the USDOE Office of River Protection (ORP) to satisfy a DOE-HQ directive to evaluate the effect of filter degradation on the facility authorization basis assumptions. Within the scope of this assessment are ventilation system HEPA filters that are classified as Safety-Class (SC) or Safety-Significant (SS) components that perform an accident mitigation function. The objective of the assessment is to verify whether HEPA filters that perform a safety function during an accident are likely to perform as intended to limit release of hazardous or radioactive materials, considering factors that could degrade the filters. Filter degradation factors considered include aging, wetting of filters, exposure to high temperature, exposure to corrosive or reactive chemicals, and exposure to radiation. Screening and evaluation criteria were developed by a site-wide group of HVAC engineers and HEPA filter experts from published empirical data. For River Protection Project (RPP) filters, the only degradation factor that exceeded the screening threshold was for filter aging. Subsequent evaluation of the effect of filter aging on the filter strength was conducted, and the results were compared with required performance to meet the conditions assumed in the RPP Authorization Basis (AB). It was found that the reduction in filter strength due to aging does not affect the filter performance requirements as specified in the AB. A portion of the HEPA filter vulnerability assessment is being conducted by the ORP and is not part of the scope of this study. The ORP is conducting an assessment of the existing policies and programs relating to maintenance, testing, and change-out of HEPA filters used for SC/SS service. This document presents the results of a HEPA filter vulnerability assessment conducted for the River protection project as requested by the DOE Office of River Protection
Sheikhian, Hossein; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Stein, Alfred
This study proposes multi‐criteria group decision‐making to address seismic physical vulnerability assessment. Granular computing rule extraction is combined with a feed forward artificial neural network to form a classifier capable of training a neural network on the basis of the rules provided by
Hindhede, Anette Lykke; Aagaard-Hansen, Jens
This article provides an example of the application of social network analysis method to assess community participation thereby strengthening planning and implementation of health promotion programming. Community health promotion often takes the form of services that reach out to or are located within communities. The concept of community reflects the idea that people's behavior and well-being are influenced by interaction with others, and here, health promotion requires participation and local leadership to facilitate transmission and uptake of interventions for the overall community to achieve social change. However, considerable uncertainty exists over exact levels of participation in these interventions. The article draws on a mixed methods research within a community development project in a vulnerable neighborhood of a town in Denmark. It presents a detailed analysis of the way in which social network analysis can be used as a tool to display participation and nonparticipation in community development and health promotion activities, to help identify capacities and assets, mobilize resources, and finally to evaluate the achievements. The article concludes that identification of interpersonal ties among people who know one another well as well as more tenuous relationships in networks can be used by community development workers to foster greater cohesion and cooperation within an area.
The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...
pipeline will connect the COTH to receive Canadian oil and continue through Oklahoma to terminals in Nederland , Texas to serve the Port Arthur...route through Steele City, Kansas down to the COTH via the Keystone Cushing Expansion, and again down to Nederland , Texas to serve the Port Arthur...Canada through the COTH and down to Nederland , Texas will improve the resiliency of the network and reduce the risk associated with a Black Swan event
be reversed at a time. Continuing with the constraints of the problem , in (28) we enforce a capacity at every intersection of the transportation ...world telecommunication, transportation , and power grids. • Develop compact formulations for “generalized network interdiction problems ,” in which...In this problem , attacks are made at points in (Euclidean) space. Damage is inflicted on each arc by reducing its capacity as a function of the
Ashiqur Rahman ,; Md. SarwarAlam Rasel; Asaduzzaman Noman; Shakh Md. Alimuzjaman Alim
Ethical hackers use the same methods and techniques to test and bypass a system's defenses as their less-principled counterparts, but rather than taking advantage of any vulnerabilities found, they document them and provide actionable advice on how to fix them so the organization can improve its overall security. The purpose of ethical hacking is to evaluate the security of a network or system's infrastructure. It entails finding and attempting to exploit any vulnerabilities to de...
Kocarev, L; Zlatanov, N; Trajanov, D
The concept of vulnerability is introduced for a model of random, dynamical interactions on networks. In this model, known as the influence model, the nodes are arranged in an arbitrary network, while the evolution of the status at a node is according to an internal Markov chain, but with transition probabilities that depend not only on the current status of that node but also on the statuses of the neighbouring nodes. Vulnerability is treated analytically and numerically for several networks with different topological structures, as well as for two real networks--the network of infrastructures and the EU power grid--identifying the most vulnerable nodes of these networks.
Full Text Available or business. The CSIR coastal systems group uses specialist skills in coastal engineering, geographic engineering systems and numerical modelling to assess and map vulnerable coastal ecosystems to develop specific adaptation measures and coastal protection...
Full Text Available We present an improved ant colony algorithm-based approach to assess the vulnerability of a road network and identify the critical infrastructures. This approach improves computational efficiency and allows for its applications in large-scale road networks. This research involves defining the vulnerability conception, modeling the traffic utility index and the vulnerability of the road network, and identifying the critical infrastructures of the road network. We apply the approach to a simple test road network and a real road network to verify the methodology. The results show that vulnerability is directly related to traffic demand and increases significantly when the demand approaches capacity. The proposed approach reduces the computational burden and may be applied in large-scale road network analysis. It can be used as a decision-supporting tool for identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management.
Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population ...
Full Text Available Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area, is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006. Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.
The assessment model ''Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion'' (SAVI) presented in this report is a PC-based path analysis model. It can provide estimates of protection system effectiveness (or vulnerability) against a spectrum of outsider threats including collusion with an insider adversary. It calculates one measure of system effectiveness, the probability of interruption P(I), for all potential adversary paths. SAVI can perform both theft and sabotage vulnerability analyses. For theft, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted either before they can accomplish removal of the target material from its normal location or removal from the site boundary. For sabotage, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted before completion of their sabotage task
Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.
Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However
Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.
At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...
Swiler, Laura Painton [Albuquerque, NM; Phillips, Cynthia A [Albuquerque, NM
A computer system analysis tool and method that will allow for qualitative and quantitative assessment of security attributes and vulnerabilities in systems including computer networks. The invention is based on generation of attack graphs wherein each node represents a possible attack state and each edge represents a change in state caused by a single action taken by an attacker or unwitting assistant. Edges are weighted using metrics such as attacker effort, likelihood of attack success, or time to succeed. Generation of an attack graph is accomplished by matching information about attack requirements (specified in "attack templates") to information about computer system configuration (contained in a configuration file that can be updated to reflect system changes occurring during the course of an attack) and assumed attacker capabilities (reflected in "attacker profiles"). High risk attack paths, which correspond to those considered suited to application of attack countermeasures given limited resources for applying countermeasures, are identified by finding "epsilon optimal paths."
Keywords: climate change, integrated assessment, knowledge integration, transdisciplinary research, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment.
This thesis explores how transdisciplinary knowledge integration can be facilitated in the context of integrated assessments and vulnerability
The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...
Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.
Bíl, Michal; Vodák, Rostislav; Kubeček, Jan; Rebok, Tomáš; Svoboda, Tomáš
Road networks rank among the most important lifelines of modern society. They can be damaged by either random or intentional events. Roads are also often affected by natural hazards, the impacts of which are both direct and indirect. Whereas direct impacts (e.g. roads damaged by a landslide or due to flooding) are localized in close proximity to the natural hazard occurrence, the indirect impacts can entail widespread service disabilities and considerable travel delays. The change in flows in the network may affect the population living far from the places originally impacted by the natural disaster. These effects are primarily possible due to the intrinsic nature of this system. The consequences and extent of the indirect costs also depend on the set of road links which were damaged, because the road links differ in terms of their importance. The more robust (interconnected) the road network is, the less time is usually needed to secure the serviceability of an area hit by a disaster. These kinds of networks also demonstrate a higher degree of resilience. Evaluating road network structures is therefore essential in any type of vulnerability and resilience analysis. There are a range of approaches used for evaluation of the vulnerability of a network and for identification of the weakest road links. Only few of them are, however, capable of simulating the impacts of the simultaneous closure of numerous links, which often occurs during a disaster. The primary problem is that in the case of a disaster, which usually has a large regional extent, the road network may remain disconnected. The majority of the commonly used indices use direct computation of the shortest paths or time between OD (origin - destination) pairs and therefore cannot be applied when the network breaks up into two or more components. Since extensive break-ups often occur in cases of major disasters, it is important to study the network vulnerability in these cases as well, so that appropriate
Morrison, G.S.; Spencer, D.S.
The National Institute of Justice has tasked their Satellite Facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps to identi~ the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion fi-om outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees, In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these initial assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.
Shin, K. H.; Kim, K. H.; Ki, S. J.; Lee, H. G.
The vulnerability assessment tool at a Tier 1 level, although not often used for regulatory purposes, helps establish pollution prevention and management strategies in the areas of potential environmental concern such as soil and ground water. In this study, the Neural Network Pattern Recognition Tool embedded in MATLAB was used to allow the initial screening of soil and groundwater pollution based on data compiled across about 1000 previously contaminated sites in Korea. The input variables included a series of parameters which were tightly related to downward movement of water and contaminants through soil and ground water, whereas multiple classes were assigned to the sum of concentrations of major pollutants detected. Results showed that in accordance with diverse pollution indices for soil and ground water, pollution levels in both media were strongly modulated by site-specific characteristics such as intrinsic soil and other geologic properties, in addition to pollution sources and rainfall. However, classification accuracy was very sensitive to the number of classes defined as well as the types of the variables incorporated, requiring careful selection of input variables and output categories. Therefore, we believe that the proposed methodology is used not only to modify existing pollution indices so that they are more suitable for addressing local vulnerability, but also to develop a unique assessment tool to support decision making based on locally or nationally available data. This study was funded by a grant from the GAIA project(2016000560002), Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute, Republic of Korea.
Osland, Michael J; Griffith, Kereen T; Larriviere, Jack C; Feher, Laura C; Cahoon, Donald R; Enwright, Nicholas M; Oster, David A; Tirpak, John M; Woodrey, Mark S; Collini, Renee C; Baustian, Joseph J; Breithaupt, Joshua L; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A; Donoghue, Joseph F; Graham, Sean A; Harper, Jennifer W; Hester, Mark W; Howard, Rebecca J; Krauss, Ken W; Kroes, Daniel E; Lane, Robert R; McKee, Karen L; Mendelssohn, Irving A; Middleton, Beth A; Moon, Jena A; Piazza, Sarai C; Rankin, Nicole M; Sklar, Fred H; Steyer, Greg D; Swanson, Kathleen M; Swarzenski, Christopher M; Vervaeke, William C; Willis, Jonathan M; Wilson, K Van
Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used
Michael J Osland
Full Text Available Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA across political boundaries (states, wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise. Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our
Wallner, A.; Lorenz, P.
After the accident in Fukushima, nuclear safety as topic in anti-nuclear work has gained importance within the Joint Project countries. Therefore, nuclear safety and in particular the activities of the European stress tests were chosen to be the main focus of the Joint Project 2011/2012 as well as the common theme of the national projects. This brochure describes: A) Vulnerability Assessment A critical review of the EU Nuclear Stress Tests in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine is presented in chapter 1. The review details the main weaknesses identified within the stress tests. Important shortcomings not mentioned in the stress tests reports are also discussed. These evaluations do not claim to be exhaustive, but the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of safety and risk of nuclear power plants in Europe. B) Transparency of the stress tests In chapter 2 the experience of the Joint Project NGOs concerning transparency of the stress tests is presented. The information is not meant to be an evaluation of the transparency of the stress tests in general – such an evaluation is not possible within the scope of this brochure. The evaluation aims to show activities concerning stress tests and how they were conceived by the JP NGOs. Some recommendations for improvement are given. C) Safety focus Within the main topic “nuclear safety” of the Joint Project 2011/2012 the NGOs of each JP country selected a special safety relevant topic, which is/was of particular interest in their country: Bulgaria: The short story of Belene NPP – The victory – Key points of the campaign against the nuclear power plant Romania: Risks of the CANDU reactor design Czech Republic: Results of the conference “Power Plant Load Testing: Safety Inspection or Propaganda?“ Slovakia: Safety deficits of the NPP Mochovce These safety relevant issues are discussed in separate sections within the brochure at hand. (author)
Wallner, A. [Austrian Institute of Ecology, Vienna (Austria); Lorenz, P. [ed.; Becker, O. [eds.; Weber, U. [Austrian Institute of Ecology, Vienna (Austria)
After the accident in Fukushima, nuclear safety as topic in anti-nuclear work has gained importance within the Joint Project countries. Therefore, nuclear safety and in particular the activities of the European stress tests were chosen to be the main focus of the Joint Project 2011/2012 as well as the common theme of the national projects. This brochure describes: A) Vulnerability Assessment A critical review of the EU Nuclear Stress Tests in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine is presented in chapter 1. The review details the main weaknesses identified within the stress tests. Important shortcomings not mentioned in the stress tests reports are also discussed. These evaluations do not claim to be exhaustive, but the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of safety and risk of nuclear power plants in Europe. B) Transparency of the stress tests In chapter 2 the experience of the Joint Project NGOs concerning transparency of the stress tests is presented. The information is not meant to be an evaluation of the transparency of the stress tests in general – such an evaluation is not possible within the scope of this brochure. The evaluation aims to show activities concerning stress tests and how they were conceived by the JP NGOs. Some recommendations for improvement are given. C) Safety focus Within the main topic “nuclear safety” of the Joint Project 2011/2012 the NGOs of each JP country selected a special safety relevant topic, which is/was of particular interest in their country: Bulgaria: The short story of Belene NPP – The victory – Key points of the campaign against the nuclear power plant Romania: Risks of the CANDU reactor design Czech Republic: Results of the conference “Power Plant Load Testing: Safety Inspection or Propaganda?“ Slovakia: Safety deficits of the NPP Mochovce These safety relevant issues are discussed in separate sections within the brochure at hand. (author)
which primarily are their stringent energy constraints to which sensing nodes typify and security vulnerabilities. Security concerns ... Keywords: Sensors, Wireless, Network, Vulnerabilities, Security. 1. .... If the node detects a transmission.
Gephart, Jessica A.; Rovenskaya, Elena; Dieckmann, Ulf; Pace, Michael L.; Brännström, Åke
Trade can allow countries to overcome local or regional losses (shocks) to their food supply, but reliance on international food trade also exposes countries to risks from external perturbations. Countries that are nutritionally or economically dependent on international trade of a commodity may be adversely affected by such shocks. While exposure to shocks has been studied in financial markets, communication networks, and some infrastructure systems, it has received less attention in food-trade networks. Here, we develop a forward shock-propagation model to quantify how trade flows are redistributed under a range of shock scenarios and assess the food-security outcomes by comparing changes in national fish supplies to indices of each country’s nutritional fish dependency. Shock propagation and distribution among regions are modeled on a network of historical bilateral seafood trade data from UN Comtrade using 205 reporting territories grouped into 18 regions. In our model exposure to shocks increases with total imports and the number of import partners. We find that Central and West Africa are the most vulnerable to shocks, with their vulnerability increasing when a willingness-to-pay proxy is included. These findings suggest that countries can reduce their overall vulnerability to shocks by reducing reliance on imports and diversifying food sources. As international seafood trade grows, identifying these types of potential risks and vulnerabilities is important to build a more resilient food system.
Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov
East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability...
Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither
Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...
Full Text Available Purpose. Physical expansion of urban areas and cities is of great importance nowadays. Irreparable damages will thus be caused by lack of proper planning against natural disasters. Crisis management will therefore guide through prevention, preparedness, disaster relief, and recovery by planning an appropriate program. Methodology. Principal processes of crisis management against earthquake in Iran were evaluated and discussed. Multicriteria earthquake crisis management was then proposed by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Vulnerability of 19 urban areas in Qazvin city was studied and analyzed as a case study. Three main criteria were considered as “physical dimensions and physical vulnerability texture,” “the amount of urban texture responsibility to aid after crisis,” and “possibility of city reversibility after the crisis.” These criteria were divided into 20 subcriteria which were prioritized by a questionnaire survey. Findings. “High population density,” “urban texture of old and repairable buildings,” “lack of relief and medical services,” “a few organic texture areas,” “sidewalks with less than 6 meters width in the region,” and “lack of open spaces in the area” were concluded to be the most important reasons causing high vulnerability of urban texture in Qazvin city.
Stefanov, S. Z.; Wang, Paul P.
In this paper, a day-ahead anticipation of complex network vulnerability for an intentional threat of an attack or a shock is carried out. An ecological observer is introduced for that reason, which is a watch in the intentional multiverse, tiled by cells; dynamics of the intentional threat for a day-ahead is characterized by a space-time cell; spreading of the intentional threat is derived from its energy; duration of the intentional threat is found by the self-assembling of a space-time cell; the lower bound of probability is assessed to anticipate for a day-ahead the intentional threat; it is indicated that this vulnerability anticipation for a day-ahead is right when the intentional threat leads to dimension doubling of the complex network.
applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches .... The overall 'pollution potential' or DRASTIC index is established by applying the formula: DRASTIC Index: ... affected by the structure of the soil surface.
Full Text Available Let G=(V(G,E(G be an undirected simple connected graph. A network is usually represented by an undirected simple graph where vertices represent processors and edges represent links between processors. Finding the vulnerability values of communication networks modeled by graphs is important for network designers. The vulnerability value of a communication network shows the resistance of the network after the disruption of some centers or connection lines until a communication breakdown. The domination number and its variations are the most important vulnerability parameters for network vulnerability. Some variations of domination numbers are the 2-domination number, the bondage number, the reinforcement number, the average lower domination number, the average lower 2-domination number, and so forth. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of cycles and related graphs, namely, fans, k-pyramids, and n-gon books, via domination parameters. Then, exact solutions of the domination parameters are obtained for the above-mentioned graphs.
Zhang, Jianhua; Wang, Shuliang; Wang, Xiaoyuan
This paper analyzes the networked characteristics of three metro networks, and two malicious attacks are employed to investigate the vulnerability of metro networks based on connectivity vulnerability and functionality vulnerability. Meanwhile, the networked characteristics and vulnerability of three metro networks are compared with each other. The results show that Shanghai metro network has the largest transport capacity, Beijing metro network has the best local connectivity and Guangzhou metro network has the best global connectivity, moreover Beijing metro network has the best homogeneous degree distribution. Furthermore, we find that metro networks are very vulnerable subjected to malicious attacks, and Guangzhou metro network has the best topological structure and reliability among three metro networks. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is feasible and effective to investigate the vulnerability and to explore better topological structure of metro networks.
Toro, Javier; Duarte, Oscar; Requena, Ignacio; Zamorano, Montserrat
The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIA has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: ► The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. ► The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. ► A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. ► Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.
MIAO; Qiang; ZHANG; Wen-liang; BU; Li-xin; YIN; Hong-he; LI; Xin-jun; FANG; Xin
Through investigating information from domestic and abroad,joint the domestic assessment experience,we present a set of physical protection system(PPS)vulnerability assessment methods for on-operating nuclear power plants and for on-designing nuclear facilities.The methods will help to strengthen and upgrade the security measures of the nuclear facilities,improve the effectiveness and
Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo
The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.
Following the May 14, 1997 chemical explosion at Hanford's Plutonium Reclamation Facility, the Department of Energy Richland Operations Office and its prime contractor, Fluor Hanford, Inc., completed an extensive assessment to identify and address chemical and radiological safety vulnerabilities at all facilities under the Project Hanford Management Contract. This was a challenging undertaking because of the immense size of the problem, unique technical issues, and competing priorities. This paper focuses on the assessment process, including the criteria and methodology for data collection, evaluation, and risk-based scoring. It does not provide details on the facility-specific results and corrective actions, but discusses the approach taken to address the identified vulnerabilities
Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.
MacDonald, Douglas G.; Key, Brad; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Craig, Philip A.; Patrick, Scott W.; Crawford, Cary E.
This internally funded Laboratory-Directed R and D project by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, in conjunction with QinetiQ North America, is intended to identify and properly assess areas of overlap (and interaction) in the vulnerability assessment process between cyber security and physical protection. Existing vulnerability analysis (VA) processes and software tools exist, and these are heavily utilized in the determination of predicted vulnerability within the physical and cyber security domains. These determinations are normally performed independently of one another, and only interact on a superficial level. Both physical and cyber security subject matter experts have come to realize that though the various interactive elements exist, they are not currently quantified in most periodic security assessments. This endeavor aims to evaluate both physical and cyber VA techniques and provide a strategic approach to integrate the interdependent relationships of each into a single VA capability. This effort will also transform the existing suite of software currently utilized in the physical protection world to more accurately quantify the risk associated with a blended attack scenario. Performance databases will be created to support the characterization of the cyber security elements, and roll them into prototype software tools. This new methodology and software capability will enable analysts to better identify and assess the overall risk during a vulnerability analysis.
This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .
Li, Yongcheng; Liu, Shumei; Yu, Yao; Cao, Ting
The security problem of computer network system is becoming more and more serious. The fundamental reason is that there are security vulnerabilities in the network system. Therefore, it’s very important to identify and reduce or eliminate these vulnerabilities before they are attacked. In this paper, we are interested in joint node and link attacks and propose a vulnerability evaluation method based on the overall connectivity of the network to defense this attack. Especially, we analyze the attack cost problem from the attackers’ perspective. The purpose is to find the set of least costs for joint links and nodes, and their deletion will lead to serious network connection damage. The simulation results show that the vulnerable elements obtained from the proposed method are more suitable for the attacking idea of the malicious persons in joint node and link attack. It is easy to find that the proposed method has more realistic protection significance.
scans and other observations such as network traffic capture, to assess the severity of a vulnerability in terms of its specific impact to a 3...straightforward proposition. There are literally hundreds, if not thousands, of security tools and information technology systems that generate data useful for...during the data modeling process, a common taxonomy or data dictionary for the data elements of interest should be established. The data
Renis, T.A.; Cardwell, R.G.
Vulnerability assessment models are widely used to systematically evaluate the performance of complex safeguards systems against a variety of threats. These models require varying levels of detail and input data about the physical design of a facility and its safeguards operations and procedures. However, to evaluate safeguards effectiveness and give a performance rating, these models require additional performance data reflecting probabilities of detection, assessment, interruption, and neutralization, as well as the associated times for various adversary scenarios. These data may be attained from equipment design specifications, laboratory testing, expert judgment, or component testing. Regardless of how these data are obtained, they are inherently subjective. This paper addresses the uses of various vulnerability assessment models and the nature of subjectivity in those models. The paper also describes methods for coping with subjective data
M. M. de Brito
Full Text Available This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP and analytical network process (ANP multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.
Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian
This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.
Saha, Sudip; Vullinati, Anil K.; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Chatterjee, Samrat
We investigate efficient security control methods for protecting against vulnerabilities in networked systems. A large number of interdependent vulnerabilities typically exist in the computing nodes of a cyber-system; as vulnerabilities get exploited, starting from low level ones, they open up the doors to more critical vulnerabilities. These cannot be understood just by a topological analysis of the network, and we use the attack graph abstraction of Dewri et al. to study these problems. In contrast to earlier approaches based on heuristics and evolutionary algorithms, we study rigorous methods for quantifying the inherent vulnerability and hardening cost for the system. We develop algorithms with provable approximation guarantees, and evaluate them for real and synthetic attack graphs.
Cesarz, Patrick; Pomann, Gina-Maria; Torre, Luis de la; Villarosa, Greta; Flournoy, Tamara; Pinar, Ali; Meza Juan
Identifying vulnerabilities in power networks is an important problem, as even a small number of vulnerable connections can cause billions of dollars in damage to a network. In this paper, we investigate a graph theoretical formulation for identifying vulnerabilities of a network. We first try to find the most critical components in a network by finding an optimal solution for each possible cutsize constraint for the relaxed version of the inhibiting bisection problem, which aims to find loosely coupled subgraphs with significant demand/supply mismatch. Then we investigate finding critical components by finding a flow assignment that minimizes the maximum among flow assignments on all edges. We also report experiments on IEEE 30, IEEE 118, and WSCC 179 benchmark power networks.
Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi
Full Text Available With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities. This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control. Vulnerability Assessment (VA deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency. Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks in communication links, sabotage or intrusion by external agents, human errors, natural calamities and faults. These contingencies could lead to a disruption of service to part or all of the system. The service disruption is known as outage or blackout. The paper outlines an approach by which feature extraction and boundary tracking can be implemented to achieve on line vulnerability assessment.
Hong, Liu; Ouyang, Min; Peeta, Srinivas; He, Xiaozheng; Yan, Yongze
The economy of China and the travel needs of its citizens depend significantly on the continuous and reliable services provided by its railway system. However, this system is subject to frequent natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, and debris flow. A mechanism to assess the railway system vulnerability under these hazards and the design of effective vulnerability mitigation strategies are essential to the reliable functioning of the railway system. This article proposes a comprehensive methodology to quantitatively assess the railway system vulnerability under floods using historical data and GIS technology. The proposed methodology includes a network representation of the railway system, the generation of flood event scenarios, a method to estimate railway link vulnerability, and a quantitative vulnerability value computation approach. The railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption related to the number of interrupted trains and the durations of interruption. A maintenance strategy to mitigate vulnerability is proposed that simultaneously considers link vulnerability and number of trains using it. Numerical experiments show that the flood-induced vulnerability of the proposed representation of the Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly value in July, and the proposed vulnerability mitigation strategy is more effective compared to other strategies. - Highlights: • We propose a methodology to assess flood-induced railway system vulnerability. • Railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption. • Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly vulnerability in July. • We propose an effective maintenance strategy considering link vulnerability and burden
Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.
The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.
Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi
With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities. This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control. Vulnerability Assessment (VA) deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency. Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks ...
Full Text Available Vulnerability analysis of urban drainage networks plays an important role in urban flood management. This study analyzes and compares the vulnerability of tree and loop systems under various rainfall events to structural failure represented by pipe blockage. Different pipe blockage scenarios, in which one of the pipes in an urban drainage network is assumed to be blocked individually, are constructed and their impacts on the network are simulated under different storm events. Furthermore, a vulnerability index is defined to measure the vulnerability of the drainage systems before and after the implementation of adaptation measures. The results obtained indicate that the tree systems have a relatively larger proportion of critical hydraulic pipes than the loop systems, thus the vulnerability of tree systems is substantially greater than that of the loop systems. Furthermore, the vulnerability index of tree systems is reduced after they are converted into a loop system with the implementation of adaptation measures. This paper provides an insight into the differences in the vulnerability of tree and loop systems, and provides more evidence for development of adaptation measures (e.g., tanks to reduce urban flooding.
... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announces that the TSA Maritime Self-Assessment Risk Module (TMSARM), developed to support the United States...
Wu, J; Deng, H Z; Tan, Y J; Zhu, D Z
We study the vulnerability of complex networks under intentional attack with incomplete information, which means that one can only preferentially attack the most important nodes among a local region of a network. The known random failure and the intentional attack are two extreme cases of our study. Using the generating function method, we derive the exact value of the critical removal fraction f c of nodes for the disintegration of networks and the size of the giant component. To validate our model and method, we perform simulations of intentional attack with incomplete information in scale-free networks. We show that the attack information has an important effect on the vulnerability of scale-free networks. We also demonstrate that hiding a fraction of the nodes information is a cost-efficient strategy for enhancing the robustness of complex networks
Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The dilemma of cyber communications insecurity has existed all the times since the beginning of the network communications. The problems and concerns of unauthorized access and hacking has existed form the time of introduction of world wide web communication and Internet's expansion for popular use in 1990s, and has remained till present time as one of the most important issues. The wireless network security is no exception. Serious and continuous efforts of investigation, research and development has been going on for the last several decades to achieve the goal of provision of 100 percent or full proof security for all the protocols of networking architectures including the wireless networking. Some very reliable and robust strategies have been developed and deployed which has made network communications more and more secure. However, the most desired goal of complete security has yet to see the light of the day. The latest Cyber War scenario, reported in the media of intrusion and hacking of each other's defense and secret agencies between the two super powers USA and China has further aggravated the situation. This sort of intrusion by hackers between other countries such as India and Pakistan, Israel and Middle East countries has also been going on and reported in the media frequently. The paper reviews and critically examines the strategies already in place, for wired network. Wireless Network Security and also suggests some directions and strategies for more robust aspects to be researched and deployed.
Shuang, Qing; Zhang, Mingyuan; Yuan, Yongbo
Water distribution networks (WDNs) are important in modern lifeline system. Its stability and reliability are critical for guaranteeing high living quality and continuous operation of urban functions. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the nodal vulnerability of WDNs under cascading failures. Vulnerability is defined to analyze the effects of the consequent failures. A cascading failure is a step-by-step process which is quantitatively investigated by numerical simulation with intentional attack. Monitored pressures in different nodes and flows in different pipes have been used to estimate the network topological structure and the consequences of nodal failure. Based on the connectivity loss of topological structure, the nodal vulnerability has been evaluated. A load variation function is established to record the nodal failure reason and describe the relative differences between the load and the capacity. The proposed method is validated by an illustrative example. The results revealed that the network vulnerability should be evaluated with the consideration of hydraulic analysis and network topology. In the case study, 70.59% of the node failures trigger the cascading failures with different failure processes. It is shown that the cascading failures result in severe consequences in WDNs. - Highlights: • The aim of this paper is to evaluate the nodal vulnerability of water distribution networks under cascading failures. • Monitored pressures and flows have been used to estimate the network topological structure and the consequences of nodal failure. • Based on the connectivity loss of topological structure, the nodal vulnerability has been evaluated. • A load variation function is established to record the failure reason and describe the relative differences between load and capacity. • The results show that 70.59% of the node failures trigger the cascading failures with different failure processes
Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd
Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.
Kjoelle, Gerd H.; Uhlen, Kjetil; Rolfseng, Lars; Stene, Birger
Vulnerability in the power distribution network has been made a current topic because of various factors, from terror attacks to a strained power balance, large breakdowns in the power system in Europe and North America in recent time and an anticipated increase in climate-related challenges in the coming years; all related to the modern society's critical dependence on reliable power supply. Several questions are posed; whether there is a foundation to say that the vulnerability in the power network is increasing because of factors like cuts in staffing, reduced investments and increased exploitation of the capacity in the power systems, or increased average age on the air network. Different development features can indicate that the power network's ability to resist high stress is about to weaken. Examples of this is the slowly increasing trend in the number of non-reported interruptions, as well as an increase in the error frequency for power lines in the distribution network and for distribution transformers. In the pre-study there has not been found enough evidence to give a clear answer to whether the vulnerability in the power network is in fact on the rise. This is mainly due to the lack of good indicators, measuring methods and the foundation for documentation. Suggestions for methodology in order to identify unwanted incidents, estimate the probability and classify consequences for vulnerability analyses of power networks are presented. The methodology is concretised and exemplified in relation to a specific case: Power loss in the southern Norway affecting more than 250 000 people for 8-12 hours. Such a consequence is classified as critical. For four sub areas it has been exemplified which incidents may potentially cause such breaks. A summary is made of the most important challenges related to making vulnerability analyses of power networks. Comprised here are appropriate concepts, definitions, standards and measuring scales as well as data foundation
Full Text Available transport, complex network theory has had limited application in studying the vulnerability of maritime networks. This study uses targeted link disruption to investigate the strategy specific vulnerability of the network. Although nodal infrastructure...
Daniel (Jian Sun
Full Text Available Rail transit is developing rapidly in major cities of China and has become a key component of urban transport. Nevertheless, the security and reliability in operation are significant issues that cannot be neglected. In this paper, the network and station vulnerabilities of the urban rail transit system were analyzed based on complex network and graph theories. A vulnerability evaluation model was proposed by accounting metro interchange and passenger flow and further validated by a case study of Shanghai Metro with full-scale network and real-world traffic data. It is identified that the urban rail transit network is rather robust to random attacks, but is vulnerable to the largest degree node-based attacks and the highest betweenness node-based attacks. Metro stations with a large node degree are more important in maintaining the network size, while stations with a high node betweenness are critical to network efficiency and origin-destination (OD connectivity. The most crucial stations in maintaining network serviceability do not necessarily have the highest passenger throughput or the largest structural connectivity. A comprehensive evaluation model as proposed is therefore essential to assess station vulnerability, so that attention can be placed on appropriate nodes within the metro system. The findings of this research are of both theoretical and practical significance for urban rail transit network design and performance evaluation.
Watts and Strogatz 1998]. Thus, it is essential to consider the social utility of vulnerable friends before unfriending them in order to reduce...and Kleinberg 2010] of the social network and the user’s clustering coefficient [Watts and Strogatz 1998]. Thus, it is essential to consider the...Oxford University Press, USA. WATTS, D. AND STROGATZ , S. 1998. Collective Dynamics of Small-world Networks. Nature 393, 6684, 440–442. WONDRACEK, G
Wasserman, Maria Angelica; Viana, Aline G.; Conti, Claudio C.; Rochedo, Elaine R.; Vivone, Ronaldo J.; Bartoly, Flavia; Perez, Daniel V.
A soil specific sequential extraction protocol, associated to soil to plant transfer factors (TF) data is proposed in this work as a methodology able to detect vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to the contamination with 137 Cs and 90 Sr. The objective is to provide parameters for environmental assessment models and to optimize emergency response planning for the main Brazilian agro-ecosystems and to other Countries with similar soil conditions. Transfer factor values were determined for reference plants, cultivated in Ferralsol, Nitisol and Acrisol that constitute great part in the national agricultural soil. The preliminary results of geochemical partition for these radionuclides were coherent with soil to plant transfer factors (TF) data. And with some soil properties recognized by the specialized literature as related with mechanisms of sorption to Cs (e.g. exchangeable K, organic matter and iron oxides content) and Sr (e.g. exchangeable Ca). Nitisol, showed lower TF for 90 Sr and 137 Cs compared with the other studied soil. In the Nitisol, it is possible that reduction in 137 Cs transfer be also associated with fixation in the internal faces of 2:1 clay mineral type. The integration of experimental methods results obtained in the laboratory with results obtained in field experiments seems to confirm the vulnerability of some Brazilian soil to the radioactivity contamination. (author)
Sebastian M. Krause
Full Text Available In many complex systems representable as networks, nodes can be separated into different classes. Often these classes can be linked to a mutually shared vulnerability. Shared vulnerabilities may be due to a shared eavesdropper or correlated failures. In this paper, we show the impact of shared vulnerabilities on robust connectivity and how the heterogeneity of node classes can be exploited to maintain functionality by utilizing multiple paths. Percolation is the field of statistical physics that is generally used to analyze connectivity in complex networks, but in its existing forms, it cannot treat the heterogeneity of multiple vulnerable classes. To analyze the connectivity under these constraints, we describe each class as a color and develop a “color-avoiding” percolation. We present an analytic theory for random networks and a numerical algorithm for all networks, with which we can determine which nodes are color-avoiding connected and whether the maximal set percolates in the system. We find that the interaction of topology and color distribution implies a rich critical behavior, with critical values and critical exponents depending both on the topology and on the color distribution. Applying our physics-based theory to the Internet, we show how color-avoiding percolation can be used as the basis for new topologically aware secure communication protocols. Beyond applications to cybersecurity, our framework reveals a new layer of hidden structure in a wide range of natural and technological systems.
Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. One of the most widely used methods in assessing risk and vulnerability of coastlines on a regional scale includes the calculation of vulnerability indices and presenting these results on a ...
Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H
Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.
Cirianni, Francis; Leonardi, Giovanni; Scopelliti, Francesco
Modern society is totally dependent on a complex and articulated infrastructure network of vital importance for the existence of the urban settlements scattered on the territory. On these infrastructure systems, usually indicated with the term lifelines, are entrusted numerous services and indispensable functions of the normal urban and human activity.The systems of the lifelines represent an essential element in all the urbanised areas which are subject to seismic risk. It is important that, in these zones, they are planned according to opportune criteria based on two fundamental assumptions: a) determination of the best territorial localization, avoiding, within limits, the places of higher dangerousness; b) application of constructive technologies finalized to the reduction of the vulnerability.Therefore it is indispensable that in any modern process of seismic risk assessment the study of the networks is taken in the rightful consideration, to be integrated with the traditional analyses of the buildings.The present paper moves in this direction, dedicating particular attention to one kind of lifeline: the highway system, proposing a methodology of analysis finalized to the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the system
Full Text Available As the Internet becomes larger in scale, more complex in structure and more diversified in traffic, the number of crimes that utilize computer technologies is also increasing at a phenomenal rate. To react to the increasing number of computer crimes, the field of computer and network forensics has emerged. The general purpose of network forensics is to find malicious users or activities by gathering and dissecting firm evidences about computer crimes, e.g., hacking. However, due to the large volume of Internet traffic, not all the traffic captured and analyzed is valuable for investigation or confirmation. After analyzing some existing network forensics methods to identify common shortcomings, we propose in this paper a new network forensics method that uses a combination of network vulnerability and network evidence graph. In our proposed method, we use vulnerability evidence and reasoning algorithm to reconstruct attack scenarios and then backtrack the network packets to find the original evidences. Our proposed method can reconstruct attack scenarios effectively and then identify multi-staged attacks through evidential reasoning. Results of experiments show that the evidence graph constructed using our method is more complete and credible while possessing the reasoning capability.
King, William H
.... There are very few vulnerability and impact models capable of providing information owners with the ability to comprehensively assess the effectiveness an organization's malicious insider mitigation strategies...
Webster, K.L.; McLaughlin, J.W.
Highlights: • Permafrost areas are subject to accelerated rates of climate change leading to thaw. • Thaw will increase decomposition rates, exacerbating climate feedback. • We present a Bayesian belief network as a tool to examine interacting factors. • Organic soil (Hudson Plain region) and mineral soil (Arctic region) are contrasted. • Hudson Plain has contributed more to climate feedback than Arctic, but gap closing. - Abstract: Permafrost affected soils are an important component of the Boreal, Subarctic, and Arctic ecosystems of Canada. These areas are undergoing accelerated rates of climate change and have been identified as being at high risk for thaw. Thaw will expose soil to warmer conditions that support increased decomposition rates, which in turn will affect short- and long-term carbon storage capacity and result in feedback to global climate. We present a tool in the form of a Bayesian belief network influence diagram that will allow policymakers and managers to understand how interacting factors contribute to permafrost thaw and resulting effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) production and climate feedback. A theoretical example of expected responses from an organic soil typical of the Hudson Plain region and a mineral soil typical in the Arctic region demonstrate variability in responses across different combinations of climate and soil conditions within Canada. Based on the network results, the Arctic has historically had higher probability of thaw, but the Hudson Plain has had higher probability of producing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Under past and current climate conditions, the Hudson Plain has, on a per unit area basis, contributed more to climate feedback than the Arctic. However, the gap in contribution between the two regions is likely to decrease as thaw progresses more rapidly in the Arctic than Hudson Plain region, resulting in strong positive feedback to climate warming from both regions. The flexible framework
Preziosi, E; Petrangeli, A B; Giuliano, G
Monitoring networks aiming to assess the state of groundwater quality and detect or predict changes could increase in efficiency when fitted to vulnerability and pollution risk assessment. The main purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology aiming at integrating aquifers vulnerability and actual levels of groundwater pollution in the monitoring network design. In this study carried out in a pilot area in central Italy, several factors such as hydrogeological setting, groundwater vulnerability, and natural and anthropogenic contamination levels were analyzed and used in designing a network tailored to the monitoring objectives, namely, surveying the evolution of groundwater quality relating to natural conditions as well as to polluting processes active in the area. Due to the absence of an aquifer vulnerability map for the whole area, a proxi evaluation of it was performed through a geographic information system (GIS) methodology, leading to the so called "susceptibility to groundwater quality degradation". The latter was used as a basis for the network density assessment, while water points were ranked by several factors including discharge, actual contamination levels, maintenance conditions, and accessibility for periodical sampling in order to select the most appropriate to the network. Two different GIS procedures were implemented which combine vulnerability conditions and water points suitability, producing two slightly different networks of 50 monitoring points selected out of the 121 candidate wells and springs. The results are compared with a "manual" selection of the points. The applied GIS procedures resulted capable to select the requested number of water points from the initial set, evaluating the most confident ones and an appropriate density. Moreover, it is worth underlining that the second procedure (point distance analysis [PDA]) is technically faster and simpler to be performed than the first one (GRID + PDA).
The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.
Indra Dwi Rianto
Full Text Available WiFi Protected Setup (WPS is a standardized function supported by numerous vendors of wireless routers and access point to help set up connection to a wireless local area network. It is designed to simplify the set up and generally enabled by default. Due to design flaw, the WPS or QSS PIN is susceptible to a brute forceattack. In this paper, we test the security vulnerability occurred, evaluate the performance and give recommendations to anticipate the attack.
Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J.; Renteria, Willington
Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a c...
Nava eLevit Binnun
Full Text Available Resilience research has usually focused on identifying protective factors associated with specific stress conditions (e.g., war, trauma or psychopathologies (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder. Implicit in this research is the concept that resilience is a global construct, invariant to the unfavorable circumstances or the psychopathologies that may develop (i.e., the mechanisms underlying the resilience of an individual in all cases are expected to be similar. Here we contribute to the understanding of resilience—and its counterpart, vulnerability—by employing an approach that makes use of this invariant quality. We outline two main characteristics that we would expect from indicators of a vulnerable state: that they should appear across disorders regardless of specific circumstances, and that they should appear much before the disorder is evident. Next, we identify two sets of factors that exhibit this pattern of association with psychopathological states. The first was a set of low-level sensory, motor and regulatory irregularities that have been reported across the clinical literature; we suggest that these can serve as behavioral indicators of a vulnerable state. The second was the set of aberrations in network metrics that have been reported in the field of systems neuroscience; we suggest that these can serve as network indicators of a vulnerable state. Finally, we explore how behavioral indicators may be related to network indicators and discuss the clinical and research-related implications of our work.
Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C
Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.
Mavrouli, O.; Corominas, J.
The vulnerability of buildings to the impact of rockfalls is a topic that has recently attracted increasing attention in the scientific literature. The quantification of the vulnerability, when based on empirical or heuristic approaches requires data recorded from historical rockfalls, which are not always available. This is the reason why appropriate alternatives are required. The use of analytical and numerical models can be one of them. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings. The vulnerability is included in the risk equation by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock block and the subsequent damage level. The output is a weighted vulnerability that ranges from 0 to 1 and expresses the potential damage that a rock block causes to a building in function of its velocity and size. The vulnerability is calculated by the sum of the products of the probability of block impact on each element of the building and its associated damage state, the latter expressed in relative recovery cost terms. The probability of exceeding a specific damage state such as non-structural, local, partial, extensive or total collapse is also important for the quantification of risk and to this purpose, several sets of fragility curves for various rock diameters and increasing velocities have been prepared. An example is shown for the case of a simple reinforced concrete building and impact energies from 0 to 4075 kJ.
Background: Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived vulnerability to HIV ...
... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27 Section 1730.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...
Bai, Ya-Nan; Huang, Ning; Wang, Lei; Wu, Zhi-Xi
The dependency property and self-recovery of failure nodes both have great effects on the robustness of networks during the cascading process. Existing investigations focused mainly on the failure mechanism of static dependency groups without considering the time-dependency of interdependent nodes and the recovery mechanism in reality. In this study, we present an evolving network model consisting of failure mechanisms and a recovery mechanism to explore network robustness, where the dependency relations among nodes vary over time. Based on generating function techniques, we provide an analytical framework for random networks with arbitrary degree distribution. In particular, we theoretically find that an abrupt percolation transition exists corresponding to the dynamical dependency groups for a wide range of topologies after initial random removal. Moreover, when the abrupt transition point is above the failure threshold of dependency groups, the evolving network with the larger dependency groups is more vulnerable; when below it, the larger dependency groups make the network more robust. Numerical simulations employing the Erdős-Rényi network and Barabási-Albert scale free network are performed to validate our theoretical results.
Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.
This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of
Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven
In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.
Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert
To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.
Johnston, R.G.; Garcia, A.R.E.
Full text: The efficacy of devices, systems, and programs used for physical security depend critically on having periodic and effective vulnerability assessments. Effective vulnerability assessments, in turn, require certain conditions and attributes. These include: a proper understanding of their purpose; not confusing vulnerability assessments with other kinds of metrics, analyses, tests, and security exercises; the view that vulnerabilities are inevitable, and that finding them is good news (since they can then be mitigated), not bad news; rejection of findings of no vulnerabilities; avoidance of mere 'compliance mode' rubber stamping; the use of the proper outside, independent, imaginative personnel; psychologically predisposed to finding and demonstrating problems; the absence of conflicts of interest; no unrealistic constraints on the possible attack tools, procedures, personnel, or strategies; efforts to not just find and demonstrate vulnerabilities, but also to suggest possible countermeasures; proper context; input and buy-in from ALL facility security personnel, especially low-level personnel; emphasis on the simplest, most relevant attacks first; no underestimation of potential adversaries; consideration of fault analysis attacks; awareness of Rohrbach's Maxim and Shannon's Maxim. In addition to these factors, we will cover some of the complex issues and problems associated with the design of vulnerability assessments. There will also be suggestions on how to conduct effective vulnerability assessments on a severely limited budget. We will conclude with a discussion of both conventional and unconventional ways of reporting results. (author)
Sartori, Martina; Schiavo, Stefano
This work investigates the relationship between countries' participation in virtual water trade and their vulnerability to external shocks from a network perspective. In particular, we investigate whether (i) possible sources of local national crises may interact with the system, propagating through the network and affecting the other countries involved; (ii) the topological characteristics of the international agricultural trade network, translated into virtual water-equivalent flows, may favor countries' vulnerability to external crises. Our work contributes to the debate on the potential merits and risks associated with openness to trade in agricultural and food products. On the one hand, trade helps to ensure that even countries with limited water (and other relevant) resources have access to sufficient food and contribute to the global saving of water. On the other hand, there are fears that openness may increase the vulnerability to external shocks and thus make countries worse off. Here we abstract from political considerations about food sovereignty and independence from imports and focus instead on investigating whether the increased participation in global trade that the world has witnessed in the last 30 years has made the system more susceptible to large shocks. Our analysis reveals that: (i) the probability of larger supply shocks has not increased over time; (ii) the topological characteristics of the VW network are not such as to favor the systemic risk associated with shock propagation; and (iii) higher-order interconnections may reveal further important information about the structure of a network. Regarding the first result, fluctuations in output volumes, among the sources of shock analyzed here, are more likely to generate some instability. The first implication is that, on one side, past national or regional economic crises were not necessarily brought about or strengthened by global trade. The second, more remarkable, implication is that, on
... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215 Section 27.215 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...
Silvis, I.C.J.; Ruth, van S.M.; Fels, van der Ine; Luning, P.A.
Recent scandals have increased the need to strengthen companies’ ability to combat fraud within their own organizations and across their supply chain. Vulnerability assessments are a first step towards the inventory of fraud vulnerability and fraud mitigation plans. Spices are reported frequently
Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...
Groundwater pollution caused by human activity is a serious environmental problem in cities. Pollution vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources provides information on how to protect areas vulnerable to pollution. The present study is a detailed investigation of the potential for groundwater contamination through ...
Leng, Jun-qiang; Zhai, Jing; Li, Qian-wen; Zhao, Lin
With the development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of her urban road network, the vulnerability of the urban road network has attracted increasing attention. Based on general travel cost, this work constructs the vulnerability evaluation index for the urban road network, and evaluates the vulnerability of the urban road network from the perspective of user generalised travel cost. Firstly, the generalised travel cost model is constructed based on vehicle cost, travel time, and traveller comfort. Then, the network efficiency index is selected as an evaluation index of vulnerability: the network efficiency index is composed of the traffic volume and the generalised travel cost, which are obtained from the equilibrium state of the network. In addition, the research analyses the influence of traffic capacity decrease, road section attribute value, and location of road section, on vulnerability. Finally, the vulnerability index is used to analyse the local area network of Harbin and verify its applicability.
Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J; Renteria, Willington
Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.
Trent D. Nelson
Industry is aware of the need for Control System (CS) security, but in on-site assessments, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has observed that security procedures and devices are not consistently and effectively implemented. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Cyber Security Division (NCSD), established the Control Systems Security Center (CSSC) at INL to help industry and government improve the security of the CSs used in the nation's critical infrastructures. One of the main CSSC objectives is to identify control system vulnerabilities and develop effective mitigations for them. This paper discusses common problems and vulnerabilities seen in on-site CS assessments and suggests mitigation strategies to provide asset owners with the information they need to better protect their systems from common security flows.
Huang, Bao-rong; Ouyang, Zhi-yun; Zhang, Hui-zhi; Zhang, Li-hua; Zheng, Hua
Based on the assessment method of environmental vulnerability constructed by SOPAC and UNEP, this paper constructed an indicator system from three sub-themes including hazard, resistance, and damage to assess the eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island. The results showed that Hainan Island was suffering a middling level eco-environmental hazard, and the main hazards came from some intensive human activities such as intensive agriculture, mass tourism, mining, and a mass of solid wastes thrown by islanders and tourists. Some geographical characters such as larger land area, larger altitude range, integrated geographical form, and abundant habitat types endowed Hainan Island higher resistance to environmental hazards. However, disturbed by historical accumulative artificial and natural hazards, the Island ecosystem had showed serious ecological damage, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Comprehensively considered hazard, resistance, damage, and degradation, the comprehensive environmental vulnerability of the Island was at a middling level. Some indicators showed lower vulnerability, but some showed higher vulnerability.
Full Text Available Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.
Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn
Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.
Bashan, Amir; Berezin, Yehiel; Buldyrev, Sergey V.; Havlin, Shlomo
Recent studies show that in interdependent networks a very small failure in one network may lead to catastrophic consequences. Above a critical fraction of interdependent nodes, even a single node failure can invoke cascading failures that may abruptly fragment the system, whereas below this critical dependency a failure of a few nodes leads only to a small amount of damage to the system. So far, research has focused on interdependent random networks without space limitations. However, many real systems, such as power grids and the Internet, are not random but are spatially embedded. Here we analytically and numerically study the stability of interdependent spatially embedded networks modelled as lattice networks. Surprisingly, we find that in lattice systems, in contrast to non-embedded systems, there is no critical dependency and any small fraction of interdependent nodes leads to an abrupt collapse. We show that this extreme vulnerability of very weakly coupled lattices is a consequence of the critical exponent describing the percolation transition of a single lattice.
This memorandum focuses on the use of climate information when performing a vulnerability : assessment, a topic that was discussed at the Newark Pilot Peer Exchange Workshop on May 4-5, : 2011. The memorandum describes several sources of climate info...
Key words: Drainage channel, flood, risk assessment, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION ... hydraulic and other control structures.” The effects of floods are always ..... An application of Geographic Information System in mapping flood risk zones in ...
Dec 12, 2017 ... Pollution vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources provides information on how to protect areas ... the application of DRASTIC model, the relationship ..... mathematical structure of consistent matrices and the.
Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam Solid Waste ... existing municipal solid waste management crisis facing Dar es Salaam City using ... enabling environment of turning rampant solid waste collection a commercial ...
Patt, A.; Patt, A.; Klein, R.J.T.; Vega-Leinert, A. de la
Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. (authors)
Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T
.... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...
Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora
This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to
Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Lopes, Raul H.C.
This paper presents an evolutionary approach for learning attack specifications that describe attack scenarios. The objective is to find vulnerabilities in computer networks which minimise the cost of an attack with maximum impact. Although we focus on Insider Threat, the proposed approach applies
Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A
Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.
Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To
Berle, Oyvind; Asbjornslett, Bjorn Egil; Rice, James B.
World trade increasingly relies on longer, larger and more complex supply chains, where maritime transportation is a vital backbone of such operations. Long and complex supply chain systems are more prone to being vulnerable, though through reviews, no specific methods have been found to assess vulnerabilities of a maritime transportation system. Most existing supply chain risk assessment frameworks require risks to be foreseen to be mitigated, rather than giving transportation systems the ability to cope with unforeseen threats and hazards. In assessing cost-efficiency, societal vulnerability versus industrial cost of measures should be included. This conceptual paper presents a structured Formal Vulnerability Assessment (FVA) methodology, seeking to transfer the safety-oriented Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework into the domain of maritime supply chain vulnerability. To do so, the following two alterations are made: (1) The focus of the assessment is defined to ensure the ability of the transportation to serve as a throughput mechanism of goods, and to survive and recover from disruptive events. (2) To cope with low-frequency high-impact disruptive scenarios that were not necessarily foreseen, two parallel tracks of risk assessments need to be pursued-the cause-focused risk assessment as in the FSA, and a consequence-focused failure mode approach.
.... Additionally, it lacked support for automated data validation, resulting in unreliable vulnerability tracking information As a result, the process was ineffective, and Navy networks remained highly...
Full Text Available Supply chain vulnerability identification and evaluation are extremely important to mitigate the supply chain risk. We present an integrated method to assess the supply chain vulnerability. The potential failure mode of the supply chain vulnerability is analyzed through the SCOR model. Combining the fuzzy theory and the gray theory, the correlation degree of each vulnerability indicator can be calculated and the target improvements can be carried out. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we use Kendall’s tau coefficient to measure the effect of different methods. The result shows that the presented method has the highest consistency in the assessment compared with the other two methods.
Full Text Available The distribution automation system (DAS is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: terminal device level and control center server level. Then, the attack process is modeled based on game theory and the relationships among different vulnerabilities are analyzed by introducing a vulnerability adjacency matrix. Finally, the application process of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study based on bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS. The results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Full Text Available Aiming at the dense urban road network vulnerability without structural negative consequences, this paper proposes a novel non-structural road network vulnerability analysis framework. Three aspects of the framework are mainly described: (i the rationality of non-structural road network vulnerability, (ii the metrics for negative consequences accounting for variant road conditions, and (iii the introduction of a new vulnerability index based on user exposure. Based on the proposed methodology, a case study in the Sioux Falls network which was usually threatened by regular heavy snow during wintertime is detailedly discussed. The vulnerability ranking of links of Sioux Falls network with respect to heavy snow scenario is identified. As a result of non-structural consequences accompanied by conceivable degeneration of network, there are significant increases in generalized travel time costs which are measurements for "emotionally hurt" of topological road network.
Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li
Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Department of Energy (DOE), specifically the Office of Nonproliferation and National Security, has sponsored the development of numerous tag and seal technologies for high-security/high-valued applications. One important component in this technology development effort has been the continuous integration of vulnerability assessments. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has been the lead laboratory for vulnerability assessments of fiber-optic-based tag/seal technologies. This paper presents a brief historical overview and the current status of the DOE high-security tag/seal development program and discusses INEL's adversarial role and assessment philosophy. Verification testing criteria used to define ''successful'' tampering attempts/attacks are discussed. Finally, the advantages of integrating a vulnerability assessment into the development of commercial security tag/seals are presented
Natural disasters such as a hurricane can cause great damages to the transportation networks and significantly affect the evacuation trip operations. An accurate understanding and measurement of the network vulnerability can enhance the evacuees p...
Ek, David R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.
Scholliers, J.; Noort, M. van; Johansson, C.; Mans, D.; Silla, A.; Bell, D.; Hancox, G.; Leden, L.; Giannelos, I.; Bax, B.; Malone, K.
The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology
Scholliers, J. Noort, M. van Johansson, C. Mans, D. Silla, A. Bell, D. Hancox, G. Leden, L. Giannelos, I. Bax, B. & Malone, K.
The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology
Pires, Mathias M; Koch, Paul L; Fariña, Richard A; de Aguiar, Marcus A M; dos Reis, Sérgio F; Guimarães, Paulo R
The end of the Pleistocene was marked by the extinction of almost all large land mammals worldwide except in Africa. Although the debate on Pleistocene extinctions has focused on the roles of climate change and humans, the impact of perturbations depends on properties of ecological communities, such as species composition and the organization of ecological interactions. Here, we combined palaeoecological and ecological data, food-web models and community stability analysis to investigate if differences between Pleistocene and modern mammalian assemblages help us understand why the megafauna died out in the Americas while persisting in Africa. We show Pleistocene and modern assemblages share similar network topology, but differences in richness and body size distributions made Pleistocene communities significantly more vulnerable to the effects of human arrival. The structural changes promoted by humans in Pleistocene networks would have increased the likelihood of unstable dynamics, which may favour extinction cascades in communities facing extrinsic perturbations. Our findings suggest that the basic aspects of the organization of ecological communities may have played an important role in major extinction events in the past. Knowledge of community-level properties and their consequences to dynamics may be critical to understand past and future extinctions. © 2015 The Author(s).
Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan
Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria
Full Text Available Cities and towns are faced with various types of threat from the extraordinary events involving chemical and radiological materials as exemplified by major chemical accidents, radiological incidents, fires, explosions, traffic accidents, terrorist attacks, etc. On the other hand, many sensitive or vulnerable assets exist within cities, such as: settlements, infrastructures, hospitals, schools, churches, businesses, government, and others. Besides emergency planning, the land use planning also represents an important tool for prevention or reduction of damages on people and other assets due to unwanted events. This paper considers development of method for inclusion vulnerability assessment in land use planning with objective to assess and limit the consequences in cities of likely accidents involving hazardous materials. We made preliminary assessment of criticality and vulnerability of the assets within Belgrade city area in respect to chemical sites and transportation roads that can be exposed to chemical accidents, or terrorist attacks.
Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia
Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with
Jang, Sung Soon; Yoo, Ho Sik
To neutralize the increasing terror threats, nuclear facilities have strong physical protection system (PPS). PPS includes detectors, door locks, fences, regular guard patrols, and a hot line to a nearest military force. To design an efficient PPS and to fully operate it, vulnerability assessment process is required. Evaluating PPS of a nuclear facility is complicate process and, hence, several assessment codes have been developed. The estimation of adversary sequence interruption (EASI) code analyzes vulnerability along a single intrusion path. To evaluate many paths to a valuable asset in an actual facility, the systematic analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (SAVI) code was developed. KAERI improved SAVI and made the Korean analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (KAVI) code. Existing codes (SAVI and KAVI) have limitations in representing the distance of a facility because they use the simplified model of a PPS called adversary sequence diagram. In adversary sequence diagram the position of doors, sensors and fences is described just as the locating area. Thus, the distance between elements is inaccurate and we cannot reflect the range effect of sensors. In this abstract, we suggest accurate and intuitive vulnerability assessment based on raster map modeling of PPS. The raster map of PPS accurately represents the relative position of elements and, thus, the range effect of sensor can be easily incorporable. Most importantly, the raster map is easy to understand
Abo El Ezz, Ahmad
Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for
Nicholson, Charles D.; Barker, Kash; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E.
This work develops and compares several flow-based vulnerability measures to prioritize important network edges for the implementation of preparedness options. These network vulnerability measures quantify different characteristics and perspectives on enabling maximum flow, creating bottlenecks, and partitioning into cutsets, among others. The efficacy of these vulnerability measures to motivate preparedness options against experimental geographically located disruption simulations is measured. Results suggest that a weighted flow capacity rate, which accounts for both (i) the contribution of an edge to maximum network flow and (ii) the extent to which the edge is a bottleneck in the network, shows most promise across four instances of varying network sizes and densities. - Highlights: • We develop new flow-based measures of network vulnerability. • We apply these measures to determine the importance of edges after disruptions. • Networks of varying size and density are explored.
Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon
Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss
Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.
Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.
Mavrouli, O.; Corominas, J.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; De Gregorio, D.; Santo, A.; Di Crescenzo, G.; Foerster, E.; Ulrich, T.
The methodologies available for the analytical quantification of the vulnerability of buildings which are subject to actions resulting from slope instabilities and landslides are relatively limited in comparison with other components of quantitative landslide risk assessment. This paper provides a general methodology for calculating the vulnerabilities of reinforced concrete frame structures that are subject to three types of slope instability: slow-moving landslides, rapid flow-type slides and rock falls. The vulnerability is expressed using sets of fragility curves. A description of the general framework and of the specialised procedures employed is presented here, separately for each landslide mechanism, through the example of a single-bay one-storey reinforced concrete frame. The properties of the frame are taken into account as variables with associated uncertainties. The derived vulnerability curves presented here can be used directly by risk assessment practitioners without having to repeat the procedure, given the expected range of landslide intensities and for similar building typologies and ranges of structural characteristics. This permits the applicability of the calculated vulnerability to a wide variety of similar frames for a range of landslide intensity parameters. (authors)
Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan
Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.
Wheater, H. S.
Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.
Assessment of Vulnerability of Farming Households to Climate Change in Ekiti State, Nigeria. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Results of the study indicated that the farming households in Ekiti State witnessed change in weather conditions as reflected in unusual downpour of rain thus ...
Lokoja, the Kogi state capital, is located at the Niger-Benue confluence. Hazards erupt when human activities in the confluence area are not properly managed. This article uses the Remote Sensing and GIS technique to assess the flood vulnerability zones of the town using the bench mark minimum and maximum water ...
Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.
Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions
Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Kalantari, Nasrollah; Nobandegani, Amir Fadaei; Derakhshan, Zahra; Conti, Gea Oliveri; Ferrante, Margherita; Malekahmadi, Roya
Access to safe and reliable drinking water is amongst the important indicators of development in each society, and water scarcity is one of the challenges and limitations affecting development at national and regional levels and social life and economic activity areas. Generally, there are two types of drinking water sources: the first type is surface waters, including lakes, rivers, and streams and the second type is groundwaters existing in aquifers. Amongst aquifers, karst aquifers play an important role in supplying water sources of the world. Therefore, protecting these aquifers from pollution sources is of paramount importance. COP method is amongst the methods to investigate the intrinsic vulnerability of this type of aquifers, so that areas susceptible to contamination can be determined before being contaminated and these sources can be protected. In the present study, COP method was employed in order to spot the regions that are prone to contamination in the region. This method uses the properties of overlying geological layers above the water table (O factor), the concentration of flow (C factor), and precipitation (P factor) over the aquifer, as the parameters to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater resources. In this regard, geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) were utilized to prepare the mentioned factors and the intrinsic vulnerability map was obtained. The results of COP method indicated that the northwest and the west of the region are highly and very vulnerable. This study indicated that regions with low vulnerability were observed in eastern areas, which accounted for 15.6% of the area. Moderate vulnerability was 40% and related to the northeast and southeast of the area. High vulnerability was 38.2% and related to western and southwestern regions. Very high vulnerability was 6.2% and related to the northwest of the area. By means of the analysis of sensitivity of the model, it was determined that the focus
Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi
Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of
Pásztor, László; Laborczi, Annamária; Takács, Katalin; Szatmári, Gábor
information representing IEW or GRP forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced IEW frequency and measured GRP values respectively. An efficient spatial prediction methodology was applied to construct reliable maps, namely regression kriging (RK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use and climate. RK divides the spatial inference into two parts. Firstly the deterministic component of the target variable is determined by a regression model. The residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis represent the spatially varying but dependent stochastic component, which are interpolated by kriging. The final map is the sum of the two component predictions. Application of RK also provides the possibility of inherent accuracy assessment. The resulting maps are characterized by global and local measures of its accuracy. Additionally the method enables interval estimation for spatial extension of the areas of predefined risk categories. All of these outputs provide useful contribution to spatial planning, action planning and decision making. Acknowledgement: Our work was partly supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).
Research highlights: → Paper presents new methodology for vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants. → First universal quantitative risks assessment model for terrorist attack on a NPPs. → New model enhance security, reliability and safe operation of all energy infrastructure. → Significant research benefits: increased NPPs security, reliability and availability. → Useful new tool for PRA application to evaluation of terrorist threats on NPPs. - Abstract: The fundamental aim of an efficient regulatory emergency preparedness and response system is to provide sustained emergency readiness and to prevent emergency situations and accidents. But when an event occurs, the regulatory mission is to mitigate consequences and to protect people and the environment against nuclear and radiological damage. The regulatory emergency response system, which would be activated in the case of a nuclear and/or radiological emergency and release of radioactivity to the environment, is an important element of a comprehensive national regulatory system of nuclear and radiation safety. In the past, national emergency systems explicitly did not include vulnerability assessments of the critical nuclear infrastructure as an important part of a comprehensive preparedness framework. But after the huge terrorist attack on 11/09/2001, decision-makers became aware that critical nuclear infrastructure could also be an attractive target to terrorism, with the purpose of using the physical and radioactive properties of the nuclear material to cause mass casualties, property damage, and detrimental economic and/or environmental impacts. The necessity to evaluate critical nuclear infrastructure vulnerability to threats like human errors, terrorist attacks and natural disasters, as well as preparation of emergency response plans with estimation of optimized costs, are of vital importance for assurance of safe nuclear facilities operation and national security. In this paper presented
Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Kar, Amlanjyoti
Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.
Sahoo, Satiprasad [School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Kar, Amlanjyoti [Central Ground Water Board, Bhujal Bhawan, Faridabad, Haryana (India)
Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.
As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A
Full Text Available In the research on network security, distinguishing the vulnerable components of networks is very important for protecting infrastructures systems. Here, we probe how to identify the vulnerable nodes of complex networks in cascading failures, which was ignored before. Concerned with random attack (RA and highest load attack (HL on nodes, we model cascading dynamics of complex networks. Then, we introduce four kinds of weighting methods to characterize the nodes of networks including Barabási-Albert scale-free networks (SF, Watts-Strogatz small-world networks (WS, Erdos-Renyi random networks (ER, and two real-world networks. The simulations show that, for SF networks under HL attack, the nodes with small value of the fourth kind of weight are the most vulnerable and the ones with small value of the third weight are also vulnerable. Also, the real-world autonomous system with power-law distribution verifies these findings. Moreover, for WS and ER networks under both RA and HL attack, when the nodes have low tolerant ability, the ones with small value of the fourth kind of weight are more vulnerable and also the ones with high degree are easier to break down. The results give us important theoretical basis for digging the potential safety loophole and making protection strategy.
Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario
A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...
Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blohm, Andrew [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, Alison [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Henriques, Justin J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, Elizabeth L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.
Identifying, assessing, and mitigating electric power grid vulnerabilities is a growing focus in short-term operational planning of power systems. Through illustrated application, this important guide surveys state-of-the-art methodologies for the assessment and enhancement of power system security in short-term operational planning and real-time operation. The methodologies employ advanced methods from probabilistic theory, data mining, artificial intelligence, and optimization, to provide knowledge-based support for monitoring, control (preventive and corrective), and decision making tasks. Key features: Introduces behavioural recognition in wide-area monitoring and security constrained optimal power flow for intelligent control and protection and optimal grid management. Provides in-depth understanding of risk-based reliability and security assessment, dynamic vulnerability as essment methods, supported by the underpinning mathematics. Develops expertise in mitigation techniques using intelligent protect...
Vigil, R.A.; Nowlen, S.P.
There has been some concern that, as nuclear power plants age, protective measures taken to control and minimize the impact of fire may become ineffective, or significantly less effective, and hence result in an increased fire risk. One objective of the Fire Vulnerability of Aged Electrical Components Program is to assess the effects of aging and service wear on the fire vulnerability of electrical equipment. An increased fire vulnerability of components may lead to an overall increase in fire risk to the plant. Because of their widespread use in various electrical safety systems, electromechanical relays were chosen to be the initial components for evaluation. This test program assessed the impact of operational and thermal aging on the vulnerability of these relays to fire-induced damage. Only thermal effects of a fire were examined in this test program. The impact of smoke, corrosive materials, or fire suppression effects on relay performance were not addressed in this test program. The purpose of this test program was to assess whether the fire vulnerability of electrical relays increased with aging. The sequence followed for the test program was to: identify specific relay types, develop three fire scenarios, artificially age several relays, test the unaged and aged relays in the fire exposure scenarios, and compare the results. The relays tested were Agastat GPI, General Electric (GE) HMA, HGA, and HFA. At least two relays of each type were artificially aged and at least two relays of each type were new. Relays were operationally aged by cycling the relay under rated load for 2,000 operations. These relays were then thermally aged for 60 days with their coil energized
Lamkin, Joanna; Clifton, Allan; Campbell, W Keith; Miller, Joshua D
Two dimensions of narcissism exist, grandiose and vulnerable, which are thought to be associated with distinctly different patterns of interpersonal behavior. Social network analysis is a way of quantifying and analyzing interpersonal interactions that may prove useful for characterizing the networks associated with these narcissism dimensions. In the current study, participants (N = 148) completed scales assessing both narcissism dimensions and a measure of the five-factor model of personality. Egocentric network information about participants' 30 closest friends and family members (i.e., "alters") was also obtained. Both narcissism dimensions were characterized by negative perceptions of the individuals who comprise one's social networks, and many of these relations were mediated by individuals' higher levels of antagonism. Grandiose narcissism also interacted with alter centrality (i.e., importance to the network) such that individuals low on grandiose narcissism were less likely to perceive central alters in a negative light and were more attuned to central alters than were individuals high on grandiose narcissism. Overall, both narcissism dimensions were associated with perceiving one's overall social environment negatively because of the high levels of antagonism that characterize both narcissism dimensions. Individuals high on grandiose narcissism, however, appear to be more insensitive to the relative importance of individuals in their social networks. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved
Wen, Shameng; Meng, Qingkun; Feng, Chao; Tang, Chaojing
Formal techniques have been devoted to analyzing whether network protocol specifications violate security policies; however, these methods cannot detect vulnerabilities in the implementations of the network protocols themselves. Symbolic execution can be used to analyze the paths of the network protocol implementations, but for stateful network protocols, it is difficult to reach the deep states of the protocol. This paper proposes a novel model-guided approach to detect vulnerabilities in network protocol implementations. Our method first abstracts a finite state machine (FSM) model, then utilizes the model to guide the symbolic execution. This approach achieves high coverage of both the code and the protocol states. The proposed method is implemented and applied to test numerous real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method is more effective than traditional fuzzing methods such as SPIKE at detecting vulnerabilities in the deep states of network protocol implementations.
Full Text Available Formal techniques have been devoted to analyzing whether network protocol specifications violate security policies; however, these methods cannot detect vulnerabilities in the implementations of the network protocols themselves. Symbolic execution can be used to analyze the paths of the network protocol implementations, but for stateful network protocols, it is difficult to reach the deep states of the protocol. This paper proposes a novel model-guided approach to detect vulnerabilities in network protocol implementations. Our method first abstracts a finite state machine (FSM model, then utilizes the model to guide the symbolic execution. This approach achieves high coverage of both the code and the protocol states. The proposed method is implemented and applied to test numerous real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method is more effective than traditional fuzzing methods such as SPIKE at detecting vulnerabilities in the deep states of network protocol implementations.
Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang
Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.
Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.
Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation
Kostadinov, V.; Petelin, S.
Preliminary attempts to develop models for nuclear regulatory vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants are presented. Development of the philosophy and computer tools could be new and important insight for management of nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies who face difficult questions about how to assess the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities to external and internal threats. In the situation where different and hidden threat sources are dispersed throughout the world, the assessment of security and safe operation of nuclear power plants is very important. Capability to evaluate plant vulnerability to different kinds of threats, like human and natural occurrences and terrorist attacks and preparation of emergency response plans and estimation of costs are of vital importance for assurance of national security. On the basis of such vital insights, nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies could plan and optimise changes in oversight procedures, organisations, equipment, hardware and software to reduce risks taking into account security and safety of nuclear power plants operation, budget, manpower, and other limitations. Initial qualitative estimations of adapted assessments for nuclear applications are shortly presented. (author)
Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson
The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.
Trueba, C.; Millan, R.; Schimid, T.; Lago, C.; Gutierrez, J.
A methodology is presented to assess the radiological vulnerability of soils, based exclusively on their pedagogical properties. The radiological vulnerability defined as the potential capacity of soils to fix or transfer deposited radiocaesium and radiostrontium to plants, is represented in terms of vulnerability indexes. Two pathways are considered, the external irradiation and their transfer through the food chain, where the top horizon and a critical depth of 60 cm is taken into account, respectively, Partial vulnerability indexes are considered for each pathway, which allows a qualitative prediction of the behaviour of the contaminants in soils Global indexes have been obtained as the sum of the partial indexes. The methodology has been applied and validated using a data base consisting of more than 2000 soil profiles selected from all over Spain. This included a pedagogical characterisation and normalisation of the different soil profiles. Results have been obtained for individual soil profiles and with the aid of a GIS, the distribution of the partial and global indexes have been presented for the most representative soil types. (Author)
Shubhasis Dey; Ramdane Djoudad; Yaz Terajima
In this article, the authors build on the framework used in the Bank of Canada's Financial System Review to assess the evolution of household indebtedness and financial vulnerabilities in response to changing economic conditions. To achieve this, they first compare two microdata sets generated by Ipsos Reid's Canadian Financial Monitor and Statistics Canada's Survey of Financial Security. They find that the surveys are broadly comparable, despite methodological differences. This enables them ...
.... The military's use of computer networked information systems is thus a critical strength. These systems are then critical vulnerabilities because they may lack adequate protection and are open to enemy attack...
Nikolay Alexandrovich Kinash
Full Text Available A generator R-MAT for modeling networks with different laws of link constructions within and between communities has been developed. Network attack simulations have been performed and pertinent robustness of diverse network combinations has been concluded.
Full Text Available With an increasing emphasis on network security, much more attentions have been attracted to the vulnerability of complex networks. In this paper, the fractal dimension, which can reflect space-filling capacity of networks, is redefined as the origin moment of the edge betweenness to obtain a more reasonable evaluation of vulnerability. The proposed model combining multiple evaluation indexes not only overcomes the shortage of average edge betweenness's failing to evaluate vulnerability of some special networks, but also characterizes the topological structure and highlights the space-filling capacity of networks. The applications to six US airline networks illustrate the practicality and effectiveness of our proposed method, and the comparisons with three other commonly used methods further validate the superiority of our proposed method.
Chen, Shih-Kai; Hsieh, Chih-Heng; Tsai, Cheng-Bin
Aquifer vulnerability assessment is considered to be an effective tool in controlling potential pollution which is critical for groundwater management. The Choushui River alluvial fan, located in central Taiwan, is an agricultural area with complex crop patterns and various irrigation schemes, which increased the difficulties in groundwater resource management. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated methodology to assess shallow groundwater vulnerability by including land-use impact on groundwater potential pollution. The original groundwater vulnerability methodology, DRASTIC, was modified by adding a land-use parameter in order to assess groundwater vulnerability under intense agricultural activities. To examine the prediction capacity of pollution for the modified DRASTIC model, various risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N obtained from groundwater monitoring network. It was found that for the original DRASTIC vulnerability map, some areas with low nitrate-N concentrations are covered within the high vulnerability areas, especially in the northern part of mid-fan areas, where rice paddy is the main crop and planted for two crop seasons per year. The low nitrate-N contamination potential of rice paddies may be resulted from the denitrification in the reduced root zone. By reducing the rating for rice paddies, the modified model was proved to be capable of increasing the precise of prediction in study area. The results can provide a basis for groundwater monitoring network design and effective preserve measures formulation in the mixed agricultural area. Keyword:Aquifer Vulnerability, Groundwater, DRASTIC, Nitrate-N
AbdelWahab, “ 2G / 3G Inter-RAT Handover Performance Analysis,” Second European Conference on Antennas and Propagation, pp. 1, 8, 11–16, Nov. 2007.  J...RADIO GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSMITTER DEVELOPMENT FOR HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK VULNERABILITY TESTING by Carson C. McAbee... MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSMITTER DEVELOPMENT FOR HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK VULNERABILITY TESTING 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Carson C. McAbee
Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.
Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption
Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer
Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their
Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.
Full Text Available In this study, the different methods for groundwater vulnerability assessment to pesticides contamination and their uncertainties were introduced. Then, the groundwater vulnerability of agricultural regions of Pasha-Kolaa dam (Mazandaran province to 7 pesticides has been assessed by the mobility potential indices in the typical conditions of pesticide properties (t1/2 and KOC and the zonation maps of groundwater vulnerability in this region have been generated in the GIS environment. According to the uncertainty of the pesticide properties and the lack of necessary data for uncertainty analysis in the region of study, the mobility potential indices in different scenarios of pesticide properties (worst and best conditions of pesticide properties (t1/2 and KOC have been calculated, mapped and zoned. The zonation maps in three scenarios (best, typical and worst conditions of pesticide properties were compared. Next, according to the regional values of mobility potential indices, generated for different scenarios, the pesticides are ranked using the composite programming method. Finally, the pesticides are clustered to three groups (suitable, transitional and unsuitable by the combination of the results of previous sections. The clustering results showed that among of studied pesticides, 2,4 D Acid, Dimethoate and Fenvalerate are suitable ,and Metsulfuron and Triclopyr are unsuitable pesticides for region of study. The other pesticides showed transitional condition.
Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.
Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.
Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana
Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess
Full Text Available Val66Met, a naturally occurring polymorphism in the human brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF gene resulting in a valine (Val to methionine (Met substitution at codon 66, plays an important role in neuroplasticity. While the effect of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on local brain structures has previously been examined, its impact on the configuration of the graph-based white matter structural networks is yet to be investigated. In the current study, we assessed the effect of the BDNF polymorphism on the network properties and robustness of the graph-based white matter structural networks. Graph theory was employed to investigate the structural connectivity derived from white matter tractography in two groups, Val homozygotes (n = 18 and Met-allele carriers (n = 55. Although there were no differences in the global network measures including global efficiency, local efficiency, and modularity between the two genotype groups, we found the effect of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on the robustness properties of the white matter structural networks. Specifically, the white matter structural networks of the Met-allele carrier group showed higher vulnerability to targeted removal of central nodes as compared with those of the Val homozygote group. These findings suggest that the central role of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism in regards to neuroplasticity may be associated with inherent differences in the robustness of the white matter structural network according to the genetic variants. Furthermore, greater susceptibility to brain disorders in Met-allele carriers may be understood as being due to their limited stability in white matter structural connectivity.
Ting Li; Xin Li
Evaluation of e-commerce network security is based on assessment method Bayesian networks, and it first defines the vulnerability status of e-commerce system evaluation index and the vulnerability of the state model of e-commerce systems, and after the principle of the Bayesian network reliability of e-commerce system and the criticality of the vulnerabilities were analyzed, experiments show that the change method is a good evaluation of the security of e-commerce systems.
Wen, Shameng; Meng, Qingkun; Feng, Chao; Tang, Chaojing
Network protocol vulnerability detection plays an important role in many domains, including protocol security analysis, application security, and network intrusion detection. In this study, by analyzing the general fuzzing method of network protocols, we propose a novel approach that combines network traffic analysis with the binary reverse engineering method. For network traffic analysis, the block-based protocol description language is introduced to construct test scripts, while the binary reverse engineering method employs the genetic algorithm with a fitness function designed to focus on code coverage. This combination leads to a substantial improvement in fuzz testing for network protocols. We build a prototype system and use it to test several real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results show that the proposed approach detects vulnerabilities more efficiently and effectively than general fuzzing methods such as SPIKE.
Full Text Available Network protocol vulnerability detection plays an important role in many domains, including protocol security analysis, application security, and network intrusion detection. In this study, by analyzing the general fuzzing method of network protocols, we propose a novel approach that combines network traffic analysis with the binary reverse engineering method. For network traffic analysis, the block-based protocol description language is introduced to construct test scripts, while the binary reverse engineering method employs the genetic algorithm with a fitness function designed to focus on code coverage. This combination leads to a substantial improvement in fuzz testing for network protocols. We build a prototype system and use it to test several real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results show that the proposed approach detects vulnerabilities more efficiently and effectively than general fuzzing methods such as SPIKE.
Ouyang, Min; Zhao, Lijing; Hong, Liu; Pan, Zhezhe
Recently numerous studies have applied complex network based models to study the performance and vulnerability of infrastructure systems under various types of attacks and hazards. But how effective are these models to capture their real performance response is still a question worthy of research. Taking the Chinese railway system as an example, this paper selects three typical complex network based models, including purely topological model (PTM), purely shortest path model (PSPM), and weight (link length) based shortest path model (WBSPM), to analyze railway accessibility and flow-based vulnerability and compare their results with those from the real train flow model (RTFM). The results show that the WBSPM can produce the train routines with 83% stations and 77% railway links identical to the real routines and can approach the RTFM the best for railway vulnerability under both single and multiple component failures. The correlation coefficient for accessibility vulnerability from WBSPM and RTFM under single station failures is 0.96 while it is 0.92 for flow-based vulnerability; under multiple station failures, where each station has the same failure probability fp, the WBSPM can produce almost identical vulnerability results with those from the RTFM under almost all failures scenarios when fp is larger than 0.62 for accessibility vulnerability and 0.86 for flow-based vulnerability
Meyer, Nele Kristin; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Korup, Oliver
Norwegian's road network is frequently affected by debris flows. Both damage repair and traffic interruption generate high economic losses and necessitate a rigorous assessment of where losses are expected to be high and where preventive measures should be focused on. In recent studies, we have developed susceptibility and trigger probability maps that serve as input into a hazard calculation at the scale of first-order watersheds. Here we combine these results with graph theory to assess the impact of debris flows on the road network of southern Norway. Susceptibility and trigger probability are aggregated for individual road sections to form a reliability index that relates to the failure probability of a link that connects two network vertices, e.g., road junctions. We define link vulnerability as a function of traffic volume and additional link failure distance. Additional link failure distance is the extra length of the alternative path connecting the two associated link vertices in case the network link fails and is calculated by a shortest-path algorithm. The product of network reliability and vulnerability indices represent the risk index. High risk indices identify critical links for the Norwegian road network and are investigated in more detail. Scenarios demonstrating the impact of single or multiple debris flow events are run for the most important routes between seven large cities in southern Norway. First results show that the reliability of the road network is lowest in the central and north-western part of the study area. Road network vulnerability is highest in the mountainous regions in central southern Norway where the road density is low and in the vicinity of cities where the traffic volume is large. The scenarios indicate that city connections that have their shortest path via routes crossing the central part of the study area have the highest risk of route failure.
Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje
The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of
Balica, S.F.; Wright, N.G.; Van der Meulen, F.
Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical
... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9460-8; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2011-0485] Vulnerability... titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...
Kunte, P.D.; Jauhari, N.; Mehrotra, U.; Kotha, M.; Hursthouse, A.S.; Gagnon, A.S.
that are the most and least vulnerable to erosion, flooding and inundation of coastal lands, and that the inclusion of socio-economic parameters influences the overall assessment of vulnerability. This study provides information aimed at increasing awareness amongst...
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3-4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm. We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2. These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2. Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management.
Veltman, M.; Parker, R.L.
All Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems have vulnerabilities. Weaknesses in these systems are introduced either during the specification, implementation or operational phase. Leaving aside these introduced vulnerabilities are intentional or unintentional, the fact remains that
Panthi, J., Sr.
Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.
Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.
Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.
Colon, Célian; Ghil, Michael
Interconnected systems are prone to propagation of disturbances, which can undermine their resilience to external perturbations. Propagation dynamics can clearly be affected by potential time delays in the underlying processes. We investigate how such delays influence the resilience of production networks facing disruption of supply. Interdependencies between economic agents are modeled using systems of Boolean delay equations (BDEs); doing so allows us to introduce heterogeneity in production delays and in inventories. Complex network topologies are considered that reproduce realistic economic features, including a network of networks. Perturbations that would otherwise vanish can, because of delay heterogeneity, amplify and lead to permanent disruptions. This phenomenon is enabled by the interactions between short cyclic structures. Difference in delays between two interacting, and otherwise resilient, structures can in turn lead to loss of synchronization in damage propagation and thus prevent recovery. Finally, this study also shows that BDEs on complex networks can lead to metastable relaxation oscillations, which are damped out in one part of a network while moving on to another part.
Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.
With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.
Full Text Available Vulnerability theory is a fundamental scientific knowledge system in sustainable development, and vulnerability assessment is important in vulnerability studies. Economic vulnerability affects economic growth sustainability. Comprehensive assessment of economic vulnerability in the process of economic growth under the theoretical framework of vulnerability will provide a new perspective for vulnerability studies. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram assessment model, this study selected 22 economic sensitivity indexes and 25 economic adaptability indexes from the economic, social, and nature–resource–environmental subsystems to comprehensively assess and spatially analyse the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies since the year 2000, while applying the entropy method, multilevel extension assessment, spatial measurement method, and geographic information system technology. The results showed the following: (1 There are great differences in the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies. Western China’s vulnerability is higher and the fluctuation range of economic vulnerability is larger. The vulnerability increased significantly based on spatial differential features; (2 Regional differences in economic vulnerability, mainly caused by differences within a region, increased gradually. Eastern and Western China showed the spatial pattern characteristics of prominent and reinforcing regional imbalance, while Central and Northeast China showed declining regional imbalance. The spatial structure evolution of economic vulnerability is characterized by a volatility curve, and regional separation and divergence are strengthened; (3 Growth of China’s provincial economies and economic vulnerability are related negatively. In Eastern, Central, and Northeast China, vulnerability of the provincial economies has a negative spillover effect on neighbouring provinces’ economic growth, while in Western China it has a slight positive
Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao
Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available for Aquifer Vulnerability Assessments and Protocols (AVAP) for producing vulnerability maps, taking into account information on soils Groundwater resources are increas- ingly threatened by pollution. The AVAP project was initiated to develop improved... characteristics. Both intrinsic and specific vulnerability are taken into account. The approach used to determine the vulnerability of the in- termediate zone involved the descrip- tion and quantification of the factors that influence vulnerability (unsatu...
Harro, Jaanus; Kanarik, Margus; Kaart, Tanel; Matrov, Denis; Kõiv, Kadri; Mällo, Tanel; Del Río, Joaquin; Tordera, Rosa M; Ramirez, Maria J
The large variety of available animal models has revealed much on the neurobiology of depression, but each model appears as specific to a significant extent, and distinction between stress response, pathogenesis of depression and underlying vulnerability is difficult to make. Evidence from epidemiological studies suggests that depression occurs in biologically predisposed subjects under impact of adverse life events. We applied the diathesis-stress concept to reveal brain regions and functional networks that mediate vulnerability to depression and response to chronic stress by collapsing data on cerebral long term neuronal activity as measured by cytochrome c oxidase histochemistry in distinct animal models. Rats were rendered vulnerable to depression either by partial serotonergic lesion or by maternal deprivation, or selected for a vulnerable phenotype (low positive affect, low novelty-related activity or high hedonic response). Environmental adversity was brought about by applying chronic variable stress or chronic social defeat. Several brain regions, most significantly median raphe, habenula, retrosplenial cortex and reticular thalamus, were universally implicated in long-term metabolic stress response, vulnerability to depression, or both. Vulnerability was associated with higher oxidative metabolism levels as compared to resilience to chronic stress. Chronic stress, in contrast, had three distinct patterns of effect on oxidative metabolism in vulnerable vs. resilient animals. In general, associations between regional activities in several brain circuits were strongest in vulnerable animals, and chronic stress disrupted this interrelatedness. These findings highlight networks that underlie resilience to stress, and the distinct response to stress that occurs in vulnerable subjects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available The seismic activity remains strong in the north of Algeria since no less than 30 earthquakes per month are recorded. The large number of structures built before the introduction of the seismic standards represents a high seismic risk. Analysis of damage suffered during the last earthquakes highlighted the vulnerability of the existing structures. In this study the seismic behavior of the existing buildings in Tizi-Ouzou city, located in the north of Algeria, is investigated. To make this assessment, a database was created following a building inventory based on a set of technical folders and field visits. The listed buildings have been classified into different typologies. Only reinforced concrete frame buildings are considered in this paper. The approach adopted to estimate structures damage is based on four main steps: 1 construction of capacity curves using static nonlinear method “push-over”, 2 estimate of seismic hazard, 3 determination of performance points, and finally 4 deduction of damage levels.
Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso
Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.
With the continuous development of network technology and the rapid spread of the Internet, computer networks have been around the world every corner. However, the network attacks frequently occur. The ARP protocol vulnerability is one of the most common vulnerabilities in the TCP / IP four-layer architecture. The network protocol vulnerabilities can lead to the intrusion and attack of the information system, and disable or disable the normal defense function of the system . At present, ARP spoofing Trojans spread widely in the LAN, the network security to run a huge hidden danger, is the primary threat to LAN security. In this paper, the author summarizes the research status and the key technologies involved in ARP protocol, analyzes the formation mechanism of ARP protocol vulnerability, and analyzes the feasibility of the attack technique. Based on the summary of the common defensive methods, the advantages and disadvantages of each defense method. At the same time, the current defense method is improved, and the advantage of the improved defense algorithm is given. At the end of this paper, the appropriate test method is selected and the test environment is set up. Experiment and test are carried out for each proposed improved defense algorithm.
Mao, D.; Sotoodeh, M.; Monu, K.; Marti, J.R.; Srivastava, K.D.
Today's increasingly interacting national critical infrastructures (NCIs) can tolerate most stochastic local disturbances. However, they are extremely fragile under global disturbances, as the latter may either push the whole system into a critical state or reveal many unexpected hidden interdependencies, inducing or triggering cascading failures among all possible layers. This robust yet fragile duality is an inherent vulnerability of modern infrastructures. It is therefore expected that weather-related disasters will be more frequent under a changing climate. This paper proposed an interdependency control strategy (ICS) that would maintain the survival of the most critical services, and compensate for this inherent vulnerability during emergency states. The paper also proposed a generalized adjacency matrix (GAM) to represent the physical interdependencies intra/inter of various infrastructure networks. The vulnerable section in the network can be identified, based on computed results of GAM, number of islands in the network, and influence domain(s) of each component. These features render ICS more effective and convincing. Last, the paper proposed a survivability index for isolated sub-networks and described relevant measures for improving this index during the four phases of emergency management. It was concluded that the proposed strategy is an effective means to reduce the inherent vulnerability and increase the resiliency of these critical infrastructures networks. 20 refs., 5 figs
Liu, Susu; Xu, C; Wen, Y; Li, G; Zhou, J
Penetrating wounds from explosively propelled fragments and bullets are the most common causes of combat injury. There is a requirement to assess the potential effectiveness of bullets penetrating human tissues in order to optimise preventive measures and wound trauma management. An advanced voxel model based on the Chinese Visible Human data was built. A digital human vulnerability model was established in combination with wound reconstruction and vulnerability assessment rules, in which wound penetration profiles were obtained by recreating the penetration of projectiles into ballistic gelatin. An effectiveness evaluation method of bullet penetration using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) was developed and solved using the Monte Carlo sampling method. The effectiveness of rifle bullets was demonstrated to increase with increasing velocity in the range of 300-700 m/s. When imparting the same energy, the effectiveness of the 5.56 mm bullet was higher than the 7.62 mm bullet in this model. The superimposition of simulant penetration profiles produced from ballistic gelatin simulant has been used to predict wound tracts in damaged tissues. The authors recognise that determining clinical effectiveness based on the AIS scores alone without verification of outcome by review of clinical hospital records means that this technique should be seen more as a manner of comparing the effectiveness of bullets than an injury prediction model. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Full Text Available on the African Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Network (AVN) project where she was based at Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomy Observatory (HartRAO). Sunelle is certified as an Associate Systems Engineering Professional (ASEP) at INCOSE. Alta de Waal...
Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.
Reservoirs are one of the main infrastructures that provide resilience against extremes (e.g., floods and droughts) and they play a key role in water resources management. Based on International Commission of Large Dams (ICOLD 2003) records, the total volume of reservoirs is over 6200 km3, which is twice larger than the global annual water use estimated as 3000 km3. Just a simple comparison of the two numbers indicates the importance of reservoirs and their role in providing resilience for water security. On the other hand, man-made reservoirs change the water distribution throughout the year. Most climate change impact studies ignore the role of reservoirs in water availability studies. However, water availability cannot be properly assessed without a thorough assessment of reservoir conditions. By combining classical methods for climate variability assessment (top-down approach) and influence assessment (bottom-up approach), this study offers a hybrid framework that integrates different drivers of water storage vulnerability. Final index is termed as the Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI). This index investigates the adaptive capacity of the reservoir and exposure of the system to variable conditions. MSRRI has been investigated over several major reservoirs in Australia and California, United States. This presentation reviews recent findings and discusses reservoir conditions in Australia and California using MSRRI under different climatic change scenarios.
Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke
Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...
de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.
Glen, D. V.
Local networks, related standards activities of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers the American National Standards Institute and other elements are presented. These elements include: (1) technology choices such as topology, transmission media, and access protocols; (2) descriptions of standards for the 802 local area networks (LAN's); high speed local networks (HSLN's) and military specification local networks; and (3) intra- and internetworking using bridges and gateways with protocols Interconnection (OSI) reference model. The convergence of LAN/PBX technology is also described.
Full Text Available The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability.
This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency.
This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases:
1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard;
2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system;
3. the definition of the
Suski, N.; Wuest, C.
Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment
Li, Rui-qi; Sun, Shi-wen; Ma, Yi-lin; Wang, Li; Xia, Cheng-yi
In order to deeply understand the complex interdependent systems, it is of great concern to take clustering coefficient, which is an important feature of many real-world systems, into account. Previous study mainly focused on the impact of clustering on interdependent networks under random attacks, while we extend the study to the case of the more realistic attacking strategy, targeted attack. A system composed of two interdependent scale-free networks with tunable clustering is provided. The effects of coupling strength and coupling preference on attack vulnerability are explored. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that interdependent links between two networks make the entire system much more fragile to attacks. Also, it is found that clustering significantly increases the vulnerability of interdependent scale-free networks. Moreover, for fully coupled network, disassortative coupling is found to be most vulnerable to random attacks, while the random and assortative coupling have little difference. Additionally, enhancing coupling strength can greatly enhance the fragility of interdependent networks against targeted attacks. These results can not only improve the deep understanding of structural complexity of complex systems, but also provide insights into the guidance of designing resilient infrastructures.
Shih, C.Y.; Scown, C.D.; Soibelman, L.; Matthews, H.S.; Garrett, J.H.; Dodrill, K.; McSurdy, S. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Critical infrastructures maintain our society's stability, security, and quality of life. These systems are also interdependent, which means that the disruption of one infrastructure system can significantly impact the operation of other systems. Because of the heavy reliance on electricity production, it is important to assess possible vulnerabilities. Determining the source of these vulnerabilities can provide insight for risk management and emergency response efforts. This research uses data warehousing and visualization techniques to explore the interdependencies between coal mines, rail transportation, and electric power plants. By merging geospatial and nonspatial data, we are able to model the potential impacts of a disruption to one or more mines, rail lines, or power plants, and visually display the results using a geographical information system. A scenario involving a severe earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the model when given input in the form of a potentially impacted area. This type of interactive analysis can help decision makers to understand the vulnerabilities of the coal distribution network and the potential impact it can have on electricity production.
In view of the extensive mining in the Tarkwa area, quality of groundwater has become an important issue. This study estimates aquifer vulnerability by applying the SINTACS model which uses seven environmental parameters to evaluate aquifer vulnerability and geographical information system (GIS) in the Tarkwa mining ...
Zhang, Hong-Ying; Chen, Wen-Xin; Jiao, Yun; Xu, Yao; Zhang, Xiang-Rong; Wu, Jing-Tao
Normal aging is associated with cognitive decline. Evidence indicates that large-scale brain networks are affected by aging; however, it has not been established whether aging has equivalent effects on specific large-scale networks. In the present study, 40 healthy subjects including 22 older (aged 60-80 years) and 18 younger (aged 22-33 years) adults underwent resting-state functional MRI scanning. Four canonical resting-state networks, including the default mode network (DMN), executive control network (ECN), dorsal attention network (DAN) and salience network, were extracted, and the functional connectivities in these canonical networks were compared between the younger and older groups. We found distinct, disruptive alterations present in the large-scale aging-related resting brain networks: the ECN was affected the most, followed by the DAN. However, the DMN and salience networks showed limited functional connectivity disruption. The visual network served as a control and was similarly preserved in both groups. Our findings suggest that the aged brain is characterized by selective vulnerability in large-scale brain networks. These results could help improve our understanding of the mechanism of degeneration in the aging brain. Additional work is warranted to determine whether selective alterations in the intrinsic networks are related to impairments in behavioral performance.
Ranagalage, M. M.
26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.
In accordance with the February 22, 1996 directive issued by Secretary of Energy O'Leary on the Vulnerability Assessment of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Storage, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory conducted an assessment of the site's HEU holdings and any associated vulnerabilities. The assessment was conducted between April 25 and May 24, 1996. The scope of this assessment, as defined in the Assessment Plan, included all HEU, and any spent fuel not evaluated in the Spent Fuel Vulnerability Assessment. Addressed in this assessment were all of the holdings at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) except any located at Argonne National Laboratory-West (ANL-W) and the Naval Reactors Facility. Excluded from the assessment were those HEU holdings previously assessed in the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory Spent Nuclear Fuel Inventory and Vulnerability Site Assessment Report and any HEU holdings evaluated in the Plutonium Vulnerability Assessment Report
Sloat, Matthew R; Reeves, Gordon H; Christiansen, Kelly R
In rivers supporting Pacific salmon in southeast Alaska, USA, regional trends toward a warmer, wetter climate are predicted to increase mid- and late-21st-century mean annual flood size by 17% and 28%, respectively. Increased flood size could alter stream habitats used by Pacific salmon for reproduction, with negative consequences for the substantial economic, cultural, and ecosystem services these fish provide. We combined field measurements and model simulations to estimate the potential influence of future flood disturbance on geomorphic processes controlling the quality and extent of coho, chum, and pink salmon spawning habitat in over 800 southeast Alaska watersheds. Spawning habitat responses varied widely across watersheds and among salmon species. Little variation among watersheds in potential spawning habitat change was explained by predicted increases in mean annual flood size. Watershed response diversity was mediated primarily by topographic controls on stream channel confinement, reach-scale geomorphic associations with spawning habitat preferences, and complexity in the pace and mode of geomorphic channel responses to altered flood size. Potential spawning habitat loss was highest for coho salmon, which spawn over a wide range of geomorphic settings, including steeper, confined stream reaches that are more susceptible to streambed scour during high flows. We estimated that 9-10% and 13-16% of the spawning habitat for coho salmon could be lost by the 2040s and 2080s, respectively, with losses occurring primarily in confined, higher-gradient streams that provide only moderate-quality habitat. Estimated effects were lower for pink and chum salmon, which primarily spawn in unconfined floodplain streams. Our results illustrate the importance of accounting for valley and reach-scale geomorphic features in watershed assessments of climate vulnerability, especially in topographically complex regions. Failure to consider the geomorphic context of stream
The emergence of new big consumer countries on the energy markets and the perspective of oil and gas depletion at the end of the current century raise the concerns about fair distribution of the remaining resources for the common and sustainable well-being of the mankind. High volatility of energy prices discourages the investment and delays the energy technology transition. Voluntary measures are needed mainly in industrialised countries in order to develop alternative and sustainable energy sources, to enable technology transfer towards emerging and developing countries and to avoid struggle for energy procurement. In this paper, a composite index of energy demand/supply weaknesses is defined as a proxy of energy vulnerability. The proposed index is based on several indicators such as energy intensity, oil and gas import dependency, CO 2 content of primary energy supply, electricity supply weaknesses and non-diversity in transport fuels. The assessment of this composite index for selected industrialised countries is discussed as well as the sensitivity to various factors
International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Natural Computing, volume 2, pages 413–416, June 2009. • Rung Ching Chen, Kai -Fan Cheng, and...Chia-Fen Hsieh . “Using rough set and support vector machine for network intrusion detection.” International Journal of Network Security & Its...intrusion detection using FP tree rules.” Journal Of Advanced Networking and Applications, 1(1):30–39, 2009. • Ming-Yang Su, Gwo-Jong Yu , and Chun-Yuen
Anandhi, A.; Bailey, N.; Thomas, M.; Bartnick, B.
The overall goal of this study is to better understand the connectedness between Best management practices (BMPs) and vulnerability assessments (VA) in a changing landuse. Developing this connectedness will help understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity important for ecosystem sustainability. BMPs are practical management practices or systems designed and installed in watersheds to provide a wide range of effects to protect or restore the physical, chemical, and biological condition of waterbodies (e.g. changing hydrology; improving vegetative habitat; mitigate adverse environmental change). VAs can be defined as "the degree to which the system is susceptible to and is unable to cope with adverse effects of change" and are often characterized as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. There are many variables and factors used in calculating the impact of BMPs and VAs. The event mean concentration or load (e.g. nutrient, sediment,) associated with the specific landuse is an important variable. There is much data that predicts the loads associated with the major landuses (urban, agricultural). Loads greatly vary with region; rainfall characteristics (e.g. rainfall intensity, rainfall frequency); soil characteristics (e.g. soil type, hydrologic soil groups); hydrologic characteristics (e.g. runoff potential). A concern also exists that possibly all of the variables associated with changes in an individual land use have not been identified and distinguished for their impact on land use. For example, the loads associated with a high density residential with much green space may be more similar to medium density than loads associated with high rise apartment buildings. Other factors may include age of construction, % of families with children, % of families with pets, level of transiency, and construction activity The objective of our study is to develop an initial framework using multiple variables and factors to represent the
Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina
Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.
.... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...
Gurnain Pasricha; Tom Roberts; Ian Christensen; Brad Howell
This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use...
Full Text Available Based on large-scale human mobility data collected in San Francisco and Boston, the morning peak urban rail transit (URT ODs (origin-destination matrix were estimated and the most vulnerable URT segments, those capable of causing the largest service interruptions, were identified. In both URT networks, a few highly vulnerable segments were observed. For this small group of vital segments, the impact of failure must be carefully evaluated. A bipartite URT usage network was developed and used to determine the inherent connections between urban rail transits and their passengers' travel demands. Although passengers' origins and destinations were easy to locate for a large number of URT segments, a few show very complicated spatial distributions. Based on the bipartite URT usage network, a new layer of the understanding of a URT segment's vulnerability can be achieved by taking the difficulty of addressing the failure of a given segment into account. Two proof-of-concept cases are described here: Possible transfer of passenger flow to the road network is here predicted in the cases of failures of two representative URT segments in San Francisco.
Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston
We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...
Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott
Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.
Brands, Ties; Alkim, T.P.; van Eck, Gijs; van Arem, Bart; Arentze, T.
A framework is proposed for the design of an optimal multimodal transport network for the Randstad area. This research framework consists of a multi-objective optimization heuristic and a fast network assessment module, which results in a set of Pareto optimal solutions. Subsequently, a proper
Kahal, E.J.; Murphy, S.L.; Salaymeh, S.R.
As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) initiative to identify potential chemical safety vulnerabilities in the DOE complex, the Chemical Safety Vulnerability Core Working Group issued a field verification assessment report. While the report concluded that Savannah River Site (SRS) is moving in a positive direction, the report also identified five chemical safety vulnerabilities with broad programmatic impact that are not easily nor quickly remedied. The May 1994 SRS Management Response Plan addressed the five SRS vulnerabilities identified in the field assessment report. The SRS response plan listed observations supporting the vulnerabilities and any actions taken or planned toward resolution. Many of the observations were resolved by simple explanations, such as the existence of implementation plans for Safety Analysis Report updates. Recognizing that correcting individual observations does not suffice in remedying the vulnerabilities, a task team was assembled to address the broader programmatic issues and to recommend corrective actions
Maria José Afonso
Full Text Available A multidisciplinary approach was developed to estimate urban groundwater vulnerability to contamination combining hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, subterranean hydrogeotechnics, groundwater ecotoxicology and isotope tracers. Paranhos and Salgueiros spring waters in Porto City were used as a case study. Historical and current vulnerability scenarios were compared using hydrogeological GIS-based modelling. Potential contamination sources were mapped around the spring galleries. Most of these were point sources and their potential contamination load was moderate. The ecotoxicological assessment indicated a low acute toxicity potential. Groundwater radionuclides appeared to be mainly controlled by geological factors and biomineralisation. Vulnerability maps suggest that most of the area has a moderate to low vulnerability to contamination. However, some surface sources such as sewage systems cause contamination and contribute to increased vulnerability. This integrated approach was demonstrated to be adequate for a better knowledge of urban hydrogeological processes and their dynamics, and highlighted the importance of a vulnerability assessment in urban areas.
Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra
Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.
Full Text Available Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed.
EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...
Full Text Available The degree of social vulnerability may vary according to the conditions and backgrounds of different locations, yet spatial clustering phenomena may exist when nearby spatial units exhibit similar characteristics. This study applied spatial autocorrelation statistics to analyze the spatial association of vulnerability among townships in Taiwan. The vulnerability was first assessed on the basis of a social vulnerability index that was constructed using Fuzzy Delphi and analytic hierarchy process methods. Subsequently, the corresponding indicator variables were applied to calculate standardized vulnerability assessment scores by using government data. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment in which T scores were normalized, the distribution of social vulnerabilities varied among the townships. The scores were further analyzed using spatial autocorrelation statistics for spatial clustering of vulnerability distribution. The Local G statistic identified 42 significant spatial association pockets, whereas the Global G statistic indicated no spatial phenomenon of clustering. This phenomenon was verified and explained by applying Moran's I statistics to examine the homogeneity and heterogeneity of spatial associations. Although both statistics were originally designed to identify the existence of spatial clustering, they serve diverse purposes, and the results can be compared to obtain additional insights into the distribution patterns of social vulnerability.
Gómez, José M; Verdú, Miguel
Epidemics can spread across large regions becoming pandemics by flowing along transportation and social networks. Two network attributes, transitivity (when a node is connected to two other nodes that are also directly connected between them) and centrality (the number and intensity of connections with the other nodes in the network), are widely associated with the dynamics of transmission of pathogens. Here we investigate how network centrality and transitivity influence vulnerability to diseases of human populations by examining one of the most devastating pandemic in human history, the fourteenth century plague pandemic called Black Death. We found that, after controlling for the city spatial location and the disease arrival time, cities with higher values of both centrality and transitivity were more severely affected by the plague. A simulation study indicates that this association was due to central cities with high transitivity undergo more exogenous re-infections. Our study provides an easy method to identify hotspots in epidemic networks. Focusing our effort in those vulnerable nodes may save time and resources by improving our ability of controlling deadly epidemics.
Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A.; Lammers, R.; Arp, C.; White, D.; Hinzman, L.; Busey, R.
People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
Jun 1, 2016 ... The "Low" and "Very Low" vulnerability are located at the northern, central and southern parts of KMA ..... the contaminant is soluble in water and flows with it and is ... the aquifer, the higher the permeability and hence higher ...
Tamea, S.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.
In recent years, the international trade of food and agricultural commodities has undergone a marked increase of exchanged volumes and an expansion of the trade network. This globalization of trade has both positive and negative effects, but the interconnectedness and external dependency of countries generate complex dynamics which are often difficult to understand and model. In this study we consider the volume of water used for the production of agricultural commodities, virtually exchanged among countries through commodity trade, i.e. the virtual water trade. Then, we set up a parsimonious mechanistic model describing the propagation, into the global trade network, of food-production crises generated locally by a social, economic or environmental event (such as war, economic crisis, drought, pest). The model, accounting for the network structure and the virtual water balance of all countries, bases on rules derived from observed virtual water flows and on data-based and statistically verified assumption. It is also tested on real case studies that prove its capability to capture the main features of crises propagation. The model is then employed as the basis for the development of an index of country vulnerability, measuring the exposure of countries to crises propagating in the virtual water trade network. Results of the analysis are discussed within the context of socio-economic and environmental conditions of countries, showing that not only water-scarce, but also wealthy and globalized countries, are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis for the period 1986-2011 reveals that the global average vulnerability has strongly increased over time, confirming the increased exposure of countries to external crises which may occur in the virtual water trade network.
Full Text Available An urban landslide vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed with major focus on considering urban social and economic aspects. The proposed methodology was developed based on the landslide susceptibility maps that Korean Forest Service utilizes to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R (flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a regional scale, and then urban vulnerability is assessed by two categories: physical and socioeconomic aspect. The physical vulnerability is related to buildings that can be impacted by a landslide event. This study considered two popular building structure types, reinforced-concrete frame and nonreinforced-concrete frame, to assess the physical vulnerability. The socioeconomic vulnerability is considered a function of the resistant levels of the vulnerable people, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illustrate the validity of the proposed methodology, physical and socioeconomic vulnerability levels are analyzed for Seoul, Korea, using the suggested approach. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.
... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9192-2; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2010-0701] Climate Change... period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of... vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the types of analyses, models, and...
Sparks, R. S.
many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects. Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, and unknown unknowns. The description of volcanic hazards is thus necessarily probabilistic and requires assessment of the attendant uncertainties. Several issues arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties. Although zonation maps require well-defined boundaries for administrative pragmatism, such boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe. Levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through the concepts of vulnerability and risk. More data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, but can increase uncertainties and may lead to re-appraisal of zone boundaries. Probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate. Expert elicitation is an emerging methodology for risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation. The method has been applied at one major volcanic crisis (Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat), and is being applied in planning for volcanic crises at Vesuvius.
Saheed A. Oke
Full Text Available The shallow groundwater of the multi-layered sedimentary basin aquifer of southwestern Nigeria was assessed based on its intrinsic vulnerability property. The vulnerability evaluation involves determining the protective cover and infiltration condition of the unsaturated zone in the basin. This was achieved using the PI (P stands for protective cover effectiveness of the overlying lithology and I indicates the degree of infiltration bypass vulnerability method of the European vulnerability approach. The PI method specifically measures the protection cover and the degree to which the protective cover is bypassed. Intrinsic parameters assessed were the subsoil, lithology, topsoil, recharge and fracturing for the protective cover. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of topsoil, infiltration processes and the lateral surface and subsurface flow were evaluated for the infiltration bypassed. The results show moderate to very low vulnerability areas. Low vulnerability areas were characterised by lithology with massive sandstone and limestone, subsoils of sandy loam texture, high slopes and high depth to water table. The moderate vulnerability areas were characterised by high rainfall and high recharge, low water table, unconsolidated sandstones and alluvium lithology. The intrinsic vulnerability properties shown in vulnerability maps will be a useful tool in planning and monitoring land use activities that can be of impact in groundwater pollution.
Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank
Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.
Papakosta, Panagiota; Botzler, Sebastian; Krug, Kai; Straub, Daniel
areas and rare species is also included. Presence of cultural heritage sites, power stations and power line network influence social exposure. The conceptual framework is demonstrated with a Bayesian Network (BN). The BN model incorporates empirical observation, physical models and expert knowledge; it can also explicitly account for uncertainty in the indicators. The proposed model is applied to the island of Cyprus. Maps support the demonstration of results.  Keeley, J.E.; Bond, W.J.; Bradstock, R.A.; Pausas, J.G.; Rundel, P.W. (2012): Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems: ecology, evolution and management. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA.  UN/ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2004): Living with Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives, Geneva, UN Publications.  Birkmann, J. (2006): Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan.
Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida
The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and
Jong Seok Lee
Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.
Full Text Available Introduction: The water crisis is one of the main challenges of the current century. Drought is one of the most costly natural disasters in Iran. During the past 40 years, our country has experienced 27 droughts. It seems a necessary step to deal with the consequences of drought and reducing its effects, thorough understanding and knowledge of each region's vulnerability, which is neglected in our country, unfortunately. It is necessary to study the influencing factors in determining vulnerability and makes it visible. On the other hand, due to the continuing drought conditions intensified in recent years and its impact on different economic sectors, especially the agricultural sector in the country need to assess vulnerability to drought in the country will double. Materials and Methods: Fuzzy AHP method based on the concept of fuzzy sets introduced by LotfeiZadeh. There are several ways to use fuzzy theory and hierarchical structure proposed merger. Cheng in 1996 suggested a new approach to solve problems using Fuzzy AHP calibration values within the membership and (TFNs. Extent Analysis Method proposed by Chang is one of the common ways to solve problems. In this study, we developed a method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy Chang that has been developed by Zhu et al. and Van Alhag. Results and Discussion: Vulnerability to drought conditions is determined by factors such as economic, social and physical sensitivity to the damaging effects of drought increases. This study is designed in the hierarchy. The purpose of this study is assessing the vulnerability of the country to drought. Vulnerability of this study includes economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and physical vulnerability. Economic vulnerability to drought indicates that the economy is vulnerable to external shocks due to drought and the inability of the economy to withstand the effects of the event and recover the situation. Social vulnerability determines the capacity to
Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar
The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will
Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos
The majority of human activities are concentrated around coastal areas, making coastline retreat, a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, thus increasing protection cost and investment revenue losses. In this study the management of coastal areas in terms of protecting coastal infrastructures, cultural and environmental heritage sites, through risk assessment analysis is been made. The scope is to provide data for spatial planning for future developments in the coastal zone and the protection of existing ones. Also to determine the impact of coastal changes related to the loss of natural resources, agricultural land and beaches. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach, combining environmental, spatial and economic data. This can be implemented by integrating the assessment of vulnerability of coasts, the spatial distribution and structural elements of coastal infrastructure (transport, tourism, and energy) and financial data by region, in a spatial database. The approach is based on coastal vulnerability estimations, considering sea level rise, land loss, extreme events, safety, adaptability and resilience of infrastructure and natural sites. It is based on coupling of environmental indicators and econometric models to determine the socio-economic impact in coastal infrastructure, cultural and environmental heritage sites. The indicators include variables like the coastal geomorphology; coastal slope; relative sea-level rise rate; shoreline erosion/accretion rate; mean tidal range and mean wave height. The anthropogenic factors include variables like settlements, sites of cultural heritage, transport networks, land uses, significance of infrastructure (e.g. military, power plans) and economic activities. The analysis in performed by a GIS application. The forcing variables are determined with the use of sub-indices related to coastal geomorphology, climate and wave variables and the socioeconomics of the coastal zone. The Greek coastline in
Energy security is a key concern in Albania, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity production. While renewable energy resources like hydropower play a fundamental role in moving the world towards a low-carbon economy, they are also vulnerable to climatic conditions. Climate variability already affects Albania's energy production to a considerable extent, and cl...
Marco Zucca; Pietro Giuseppe Crespi; Nicola Longarini
The paper presents the seismic vulnerability analysis of the military dry dock built in 1861 inside the Messina’s harbor. The study appears very important not only for the relevance of the dry dock itself, but also for its social, military and symbolic role. As a first step, the historical documentation about the dry dock delivered by the Military Technical Office, in charge of its maintenance, was thoroughly examined. This activity was fundamental to understand the construction methods, the ...
KORKMAZ, Kasım Armagan; CARHOGLU, Asuman Isıl
Turkey is located in an active seismic zone. Mid to high rise R/C building and low rise masonry buildings are very common construction type in Turkey. In recent earthquakes, lots of existing buildings got damage including masonry buildings. Masonry building history in Turkey goes long years back. For sure, it is an important structure type for Turkey. Therefore, earthquake behavior and structural vulnerability of masonry buildings are crucial issues for Turkey as a earthquake prone country. I...
Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B
Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.
Li, Z.Y.; Tang, T.; U-King-Im, J.; Graves, M.; Gillard, J.H.; Sutcliffe, M.
Because many acute cerebral ischemic events are caused by rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis, the present study used both idealized and patient-specific carotid atheromatous plaque models to evaluate the effect of structural determinants on stress distributions within plaque. Using a finite element method, structural analysis was performed using models derived from in vivo high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of carotid atheroma in 40 non-consecutive patients (20 symptomatic, 20 asymptomatic). Plaque components were modeled as hyper-elastic materials. The effects of varying fibrous cap thickness, lipid core size and lumen curvature on plaque stress distributions were examined. Lumen curvature and fibrous cap thickness were found to be major determinants of plaque stress. The size of the lipid core did not alter plaque stress significantly when the fibrous cap was relatively thick. The correlation between plaque stress and lumen curvature was significant for both symptomatic (p=0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.689) and asymptomatic patients (p=0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.862). Lumen curvature in plaques of symptomatic patients was significantly larger than those of asymptomatic patients (1.50±1.0 mm -1 vs 1.25±0.75 mm -1 ; p=0.01). Specific plaque morphology (large lumen curvature and thin fibrous cap) is closely related to plaque vulnerability. Structural analysis using high-resolution MRI of carotid atheroma may help in detecting vulnerable atheromatous plaque and aid the risk stratification of patients with carotid disease. (author)
Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.
Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore
Robert S Rempel
Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.
Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M
Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation
Peter B Moyle
Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish
Moss, R. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Blohm, A. J. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Henriques, J. J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, E L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure
Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu
This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Blytt, Line Diana
This presentation recommends that an environmental impact assessment should be made ahead of any major action plan in the environment. The final document should point out to the authorities and public that expertise has been systematised in order to predict the effects of an action plan on the environment. This should be done for different scenarios and time scales. A useful tool for an environmental impact assessment is GIS, Geographic Information Systems. It can be used to identify areas and ecosystems that are vulnerable to radioactive contamination. To predict the radiation dose to humans and biota, a vulnerability assessment considers population density, land use, economic resources and the chemical and biological pathways of radionuclides in different ecosystems. Supplemented with knowledge of consumption and dietary habits a vulnerability assessment can be used to identify critical groups and to calculate doses to these groups. For ecosystems, vulnerability can be quantified by using critical loads for radioactive contamination or flux of radionuclides from an area. One criterion for critical load can be that intervention limits for food products should not be exceeded. If the critical load is low, this indicates a high vulnerability. The flux from an area can also identify vulnerability and it can be used to calculate collective dose. The vulnerability approach is a methodology that can be used to select areas that are suitable for treatment, transport and disposal of radioactive waste
In this paper, an algorithm for optimal allocation of multi-state elements (MEs) in acyclic transmission networks (ATNs) with vulnerable nodes is suggested. The ATNs consist of a number of positions (nodes) in which MEs capable of receiving and sending a signal are allocated. Each network has a root position where the signal source is located, a number of leaf positions that can only receive a signal, and a number of intermediate positions containing MEs capable of transmitting the received signal to some other nodes. Each ME that is located in a nonleaf node can have different states determined by a set of nodes receiving the signal directly from this ME. The probability of each state is assumed to be known for each ME. Each ATN node with all the MEs allocated at this node can be destroyed by external impact (common cause failure) with a given probability. The ATN survivability is defined as the probability that a signal from the root node is transmitted to each leaf node. The optimal distribution of MEs with different characteristics among ATN positions provides the greatest possible ATN survivability. It is shown that the node vulnerability index affects the optimal distribution. The suggested algorithm is based on using a universal generating function technique for network survivability evaluation. A genetic algorithm is used as the optimization tool. Illustrative examples are presented
One introduces a new model to assess the vulnerability of the nuclear infrastructure critical facilities. The new procedure of the vulnerability assessment (the VA) aims to reevaluate the efficiency of the present-day safeguards. On the basis of deeper insight into the VA new strategy and of the elaborated procedure to analyze the hazards for the nuclear power facilities one recommends the key safeguards affecting the damage magnitude [ru
Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan
To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.
Full Text Available Many settled areas in Turkey and across the globe suffer economical and social losses resulting from natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and landslides. In this study, a vulnerability assessment model has been developed for earthquake prone areas in Turkey. The vulnerability assessment model includes ground factors, a building’s physical conditions, building evacuation and social (demographic and socioeconomic aspects of the settlement. The ground vulnerability factor is calculated using factors such as the earthquake zone, soil classification, land sliding and liquefaction threats. The physical vulnerability factor depends on the structural and non-structural threats of the building; the building evacuation vulnerability factor includes the position and structural system of the staircase, the width and natural illumination of the evacuation route, the size and opening of the building exit doors to the street and the distance of the building to the closest open area. The social vulnerability factor considers the age group, gender, family type, education, ownership, income etc of the building users. This vulnerability assessment model is applied to a case study - that of the Avcılar district of Istanbul. Forty different reinforced concrete residential buildings (349 apartments of 1225 people are assessed using the develop checklist. In order to evaluate the checklist and to assess the importance (relevance of vulnerability factors, a questionnaire is forwarded to various related professional groups (architecture, urban planning and civil engineering. The results of the questionnaire are examined using SPSS software with factor analysis. According to the results, most of the samples in the case study area can be classified as high vulnerable.
Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming
This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.
finance, emergency and government services, and agriculture. These systems are the lifeblood of the nation’s logistic , economic, and functional...considerable amounts of sewage into parks, rivers, and a hotel , causing severe environmental harm. His goal was apparently to be hired as a consultant to...same issue from occurring with outbound traffic. Second, there should restricted access from the enterprise network to the control system network
Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia
The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severe damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions
Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.
Full Text Available security Mental conditions Some practical examples Many people: • dependent on grants •illiterate •jobless •with HIV/AIDS, TB •AIDS orphans •affected by crime and violence •use dirty fuels Many sewage plants don’t function properly... and the overall quality of the assessment Exposure to Air Pollution © CSIR 2009 www.csir.co.za Air pollution PM, SOx, NOx, O3, VOCs,etc. Measured/Modelled Urban development Land use distribution Meteorology Cultural practices...
Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.4.1.49-59The topic on Landslide Vulnerability Assessment (LVAs in Malaysia is relatively new and received little attention from geoscientists and engineers. This research paper tries to formulate the concept of LVAs by taking into account the science and socio-economic aspects. A new approach in vulnerability concept is also introduced herein. To achieve this goal, a framework was designed for assessing the LVAs. The framework was formulated semiquantitatively through the development of database for the risk elements (human and properties based on information from secondary data (technical reports, extensive review of literature, and field observations. The vulnerability parameters included in assessing LVAs are 1 physical implication (building structures, internal materials, property damage, infrastructural facilities, and stabilization actions, 2 social status (injury, fatalities, safety, loss of accommodation, and public awareness, and 3 interference on environment (affected period, daily operation, and diversity. Each considered parameter in the vulnerability assessment is allocated with a certain index value ranges from 0 (0 % damage/victims/period, 0.25 (1 - 25% damage/victims/period, 0.50 (26 - 50% damage/victims/period, 0.75 (51 - 75% damage/victims/period, and 1.00 (75 - 100% damage/victims/period. All of these parameters are compiled and analyzed with “Landslide Distribution Map” (LDM to generate a “Landslide Vulnerability Degree map (LVD”. The LDM was produced based on field studies and satellite image interpretations in order to locate the landslide locations in the studied area. Finally, three types of physical, human, and environment vulnerabilities were then classified into five classes of vulnerabilities, namely: Class 1 (< 0.20: Very Low Vulnerability; Class 2 (0.21 - 0.40: Low Vulnerability; Class 3 (0.41 - 0.60: Medium Vulnerability; Class 4 (0.61 - 0.80: High Vulnerability; and Class 5 (> 0.81: Very
Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie
In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...... encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential...
Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.
Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse
Full Text Available Conventional power systems are developing into cyber-physical power systems (CPPS with wide applications of communication, computer and control technologies. However, multiple practical cases show that the failure of cyber layers is a major factor leading to blackouts. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss the cascading failure process considering cyber layer failures and analyze the vulnerability of CPPS. In this paper, a CPPS model, which consists of cyber layer, physical layer and cyber-physical interface, is presented using complex network theory. Considering power flow properties, the impacts of cyber node failures on the cascading failure propagation process are studied. Moreover, two vulnerability indices are established from the perspective of both network structure and power flow properties. A vulnerability analysis method is proposed, and the CPPS performance before and after cascading failures is analyzed by the proposed method to calculate vulnerability indices. In the case study, three typical scenarios are analyzed to illustrate the method, and vulnerabilities under different interface strategies and attack strategies are compared. Two thresholds are proposed to value the CPPS vulnerability roughly. The results show that CPPS is more vulnerable under malicious attacks and cyber nodes with high indices are vulnerable points which should be reinforced.
Kesler, Shelli R; Watson, Christa L; Blayney, Douglas W
Breast cancer and its treatments are associated with mild cognitive impairment and brain changes that could indicate an altered or accelerated brain aging process. We applied diffusion tensor imaging and graph theory to measure white matter organization and connectivity in 34 breast cancer survivors compared with 36 matched healthy female controls. We also investigated how brain networks (connectomes) in each group responded to simulated neurodegeneration based on network attack analysis. Compared with controls, the breast cancer group demonstrated significantly lower fractional anisotropy, altered small-world connectome properties, lower brain network tolerance to systematic region (node), and connection (edge) attacks and significant cognitive impairment. Lower tolerance to network attack was associated with cognitive impairment in the breast cancer group. These findings provide further evidence of diffuse white matter pathology after breast cancer and extend the literature in this area with unique data demonstrating increased vulnerability of the post-breast cancer brain network to future neurodegenerative processes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.
Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.
In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and
Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables
Full Text Available The assessment of the vulnerability of communities prone to landslide related disasters is a topic that is growing in importance. Few studies discuss this issue and limited research has been carried out on the relationship between types of landslide and their potential impact on buildings and infrastructure. We outline a framework to undertake an assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to landslide utilising a similar framework used for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage. The framework is based on the development of an "elements at risk database" that takes into consideration the characteristics and use of the buildings, their importance for the local economy and the characteristics of the inhabitants (population density, age and so forth. The attributes that affect vulnerability are imported and examined within a GIS database which is used to visualise the physical, human and economic vulnerability. The results may have important implications for disaster management and emergency planning, and the database can be used by various end-users and stakeholders such as insurance companies, local authorities and the emergency services. The approach presented here can be integrated in to a wider more detailed "Framework for Landslide Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Communities". We illustrate the potential of this framework and present preliminary results from Lichtenstein, Baden Württemberg, Germany.
Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika
Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process
Thompson, Kirrilly; Every, Danielle; Rainbird, Sophia; Cornell, Victoria; Smith, Bradley; Trigg, Joshua
Increased vulnerability to natural disasters has been associated with particular groups in the community. This includes those who are considered de facto vulnerable (children, older people, those with disabilities etc.) and those who own pets (not to mention pets themselves). The potential for reconfiguring pet ownership from a risk factor to a protective factor for natural disaster survival has been recently proposed. But how might this resilience-building proposition apply to vulnerable members of the community who own pets or other animals? This article addresses this important question by synthesizing information about what makes particular groups vulnerable, the challenges to increasing their resilience and how animals figure in their lives. Despite different vulnerabilities, animals were found to be important to the disaster resilience of seven vulnerable groups in Australia. Animal attachment and animal-related activities and networks are identified as underexplored devices for disseminating or 'piggybacking' disaster-related information and engaging vulnerable people in resilience building behaviors (in addition to including animals in disaster planning initiatives in general). Animals may provide the kind of innovative approach required to overcome the challenges in accessing and engaging vulnerable groups. As the survival of humans and animals are so often intertwined, the benefits of increasing the resilience of vulnerable communities through animal attachment is twofold: human and animal lives can be saved together.
Full Text Available Increased vulnerability to natural disasters has been associated with particular groups in the community. This includes those who are considered de facto vulnerable (children, older people, those with disabilities etc. and those who own pets (not to mention pets themselves. The potential for reconfiguring pet ownership from a risk factor to a protective factor for natural disaster survival has been recently proposed. But how might this resilience-building proposition apply to vulnerable members of the community who own pets or other animals? This article addresses this important question by synthesizing information about what makes particular groups vulnerable, the challenges to increasing their resilience and how animals figure in their lives. Despite different vulnerabilities, animals were found to be important to the disaster resilience of seven vulnerable groups in Australia. Animal attachment and animal-related activities and networks are identified as underexplored devices for disseminating or ‘piggybacking’ disaster-related information and engaging vulnerable people in resilience building behaviors (in addition to including animals in disaster planning initiatives in general. Animals may provide the kind of innovative approach required to overcome the challenges in accessing and engaging vulnerable groups. As the survival of humans and animals are so often intertwined, the benefits of increasing the resilience of vulnerable communities through animal attachment is twofold: human and animal lives can be saved together.
Burchett, Deon L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chen, Richard Li-Yang [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Phillips, Cynthia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Richard, Jean-Philippe [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
This report summarizes the work performed under the project project Next-Generation Algo- rithms for Assessing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Optimizing System Resilience. The goal of the project was to improve mathematical programming-based optimization technology for in- frastructure protection. In general, the owner of a network wishes to design a network a network that can perform well when certain transportation channels are inhibited (e.g. destroyed) by an adversary. These are typically bi-level problems where the owner designs a system, an adversary optimally attacks it, and then the owner can recover by optimally using the remaining network. This project funded three years of Deon Burchett's graduate research. Deon's graduate advisor, Professor Jean-Philippe Richard, and his Sandia advisors, Richard Chen and Cynthia Phillips, supported Deon on other funds or volunteer time. This report is, therefore. essentially a replication of the Ph.D. dissertation it funded  in a format required for project documentation. The thesis had some general polyhedral research. This is the study of the structure of the feasi- ble region of mathematical programs, such as integer programs. For example, an integer program optimizes a linear objective function subject to linear constraints, and (nonlinear) integrality con- straints on the variables. The feasible region without the integrality constraints is a convex polygon. Careful study of additional valid constraints can significantly improve computational performance. Here is the abstract from the dissertation: We perform a polyhedral study of a multi-commodity generalization of variable upper bound flow models. In particular, we establish some relations between facets of single- and multi- commodity models. We then introduce a new family of inequalities, which generalizes traditional flow cover inequalities to the multi-commodity context. We present encouraging numerical results. We also consider the directed
The Savannah River Site (SRS) has recently completed a self-assessment of potential vulnerabilities associated with plutonium and other transuranic materials stored at the site. An independent Working Group Assessment Team (WGAT) appointed by DOE/ES ampersand H also performed an independent assessment, and reviewed and validated the site self-assessment. The purpose of this report is to provide a status of interim compensatory measures at SRS to address hazards in advance of any corrective actions. ES ampersand H has requested this status for all vulnerabilities ranked medium or higher with respect to potential consequences to workers, environment, and the public
Pradana, A.; Rahmanu, Y. A.; Prabaningrum, I.; Nurafifa, I.; Hizbaron, D. R.
Dieng Volcanic Highland is one of frost disaster prone area which is very unique phenomenon in tropical region. Frost indicated by appearance of frozen dew or ice layer on the ground or vegetation surface due air inversion and cold temperatures during midnight in dry season. Appearance of frost significantly causes plant damage and losses on agricultural land, while the impacts were strongly influenced by level of vulnerability within agricultural communities. This study aims to analyze the impact of frost on agricultural land in Dieng, to identify characteristics of physical, social, economic vulnerability and coping capacity of agricultural communities to frost disaster in Dieng, and to estimate total vulnerability of frost disasters in Dieng through SMCE scenario. Research was conducted in Dieng Village, Wonosobo and Dieng Kulon Village, Banjarnegara. Method to assess vulnerability level is performed by Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method using ILWIS software through a combination of physical, social, and economic vulnerability regarding frost hazard, as well as coping capacity of farmers. Data collected by interview within different agricultural plots using questionnaire and in-depth interview method on frost affected agricultural land. Impact of frost mostly causes damage on potato agricultural land than any other types of commodities, such as carrot, leek or cabbage. Losses varies in range of 0 million to 55 million rupiah, at most events in range of 10 million to 15 million rupiah during frost season on July-August-September. Main factors determining vulnerability comes from crop losses, preparedness effort, and type of commodity. Agricultural land dominated by high level physical vulnerability (95.37 percent), high level social vulnerability (70.79 percent), moderate level economic vulnerability (79.23 percent) and moderate level coping capacity (73.18 percent). All five scenarios indicated that level of total vulnerability vary only from
Thompson, Kirrilly; Every, Danielle; Rainbird, Sophia; Cornell, Victoria; Smith, Bradley; Trigg, Joshua
Simple Summary The potential for reconfiguring pet ownership from a risk factor to a protective factor for natural disaster survival has been recently proposed. But how might this resilience-building proposition apply to members of the community who are already considered vulnerable? This article addresses this important question by synthesizing information about what makes seven particular groups vulnerable, the challenges to increasing their resilience and how animals figure in their lives. It concludes that animal attachment could provide a novel conduit for accessing, communicating with and motivating vulnerable people to engage in resilience building behaviors that promote survival and facilitate recovery. Abstract Increased vulnerability to natural disasters has been associated with particular groups in the community. This includes those who are considered de facto vulnerable (children, older people, those with disabilities etc.) and those who own pets (not to mention pets themselves). The potential for reconfiguring pet ownership from a risk factor to a protective factor for natural disaster survival has been recently proposed. But how might this resilience-building proposition apply to vulnerable members of the community who own pets or other animals? This article addresses this important question by synthesizing information about what makes particular groups vulnerable, the challenges to increasing their resilience and how animals figure in their lives. Despite different vulnerabilities, animals were found to be important to the disaster resilience of seven vulnerable groups in Australia. Animal attachment and animal-related activities and networks are identified as underexplored devices for disseminating or ‘piggybacking’ disaster-related information and engaging vulnerable people in resilience building behaviors (in addition to including animals in disaster planning initiatives in general). Animals may provide the kind of innovative approach required
Grozavu, Adrian; Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Catalin Stanga, Iulian
maps (slope, aspect, shading), realized based on the topographical plans and maps (1:1000, 1:5000). The second step was to realize the spatial inventory of elements at risk (vector format), based on the General Urban Plan (1:5000), the orthorectified aerial images (2009, resolution: 0.5 meters) and field investigations. All elements have been classified using attribute databases: residential buildings (single or multiple dwellings), other buildings according to their functionality, main and secondary roads, special transport network etc. Data about population have been added in order to assess the intrinsic value of each element and the number of potentially affected peoples. The study also took into account issues as preparedness and preventive measures (risk prevention plans, reinforcing structures, draining wells etc.), coping ability (network geometry and connectivity, emergency services accessibility) and recovering capacity (e.g. the existence of insurance policies). According to their importance and functionality, a distinct rank (ri … rn) was assigned to each element at risk (i1…in) showing the level of vulnerability. The rank values were assigned mainly on the expert knowledge and they range from 1 (limited damages, no affected people) to 5 (several households and people affected, dysfunctions in the urban system). The vulnerability index (Vi) was obtained combining the rank with the role of vulnerability factors (Fi), according to their degree of influence: the number of people that would be affected, the potential material and economic damages, the relationship with the neighboring exposed elements, the existence of the preventing, coping and recovering measures etc. Thus, the general equation of vulnerability has the form of weighted geometric mean: Vi=ri•Fi = ri•(w1F1 • w2F2 • … • wmFm). It must be noted that the weighting coefficients (wi) have subunitary or supraunitary value according to their role in diminishing or increasing the
Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.
The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning
Bauer, R. G.
The purpose of this data quality objective workbook is to present the rationale for selecting the sampling and characterization strategy that supports the assessment of the chemical vulnerabilities of the five tanks. Since characterization of the tanks' contents is likely to be expensive, a secondary goal was established to characterize the tank contents for proper waste designation and disposal at the same time the tanks are characterized for chemical vulnerability
Shadi Abolhasan Almasi
Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment is typically accomplished as a management tool to protect groundwater resources. In this research, the DRASTIC model which is an empirical one used for evaluating the potential of an aquifer for pollution was employed to evaluate the vulnerability of Shahrood alluvial aquifer. Moreover, the sensitivity of the model paramneters was assessed to identify the ones with greatest effect on vulnerability. The model layers including depth to groundwater table level, recharge, aquifer media, topography, impact of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity were prepared and classified in the ArcGIS software based on analyses of both the available data and the layer of surface soil texture using Aster satellite images. Once the vulnerability index was calculated, the sensitivity map of Shahroud aquifer vulnerability was analyzed using the two parameter removal and single parameter sensitivity methods. These were further verified by textural analysis of soil samples from different parts of the region. The layers with appropriate weights were overlaid and the DRASTIC index of the aquifer was estimated at 28 to 148. The highest vulnerability was detected in the northern margins and southwestern parts of the aquifer while other parts were characterized by medium to low vulnerability. The low nitrogen concentration observed in the farm areas and its rise to 45 mg/l in the northern stretches of the aquifer bear witness to the accuracy of the zoning rendered by the DRASTIC model. Based on the vulnerability map of Sharoud aquifer, it was found that 1.6% of the aquifer’s area has a very high vulnerability or potential for pollution followed by 10%, 28.8%, and 18.9% of the area were identified as having high, medium and low potentials for pollution, respecytively. The remaining (i.e., 40.5% was found to have no risk of pollution.
Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M
Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...
Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il
There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.
Statement: Ethical conduct for research involving humans, National Council on Ethics in Human Research, Ottawa, 1998 as issued jointly by the Canadian...coûts d’implémentation relativement faibles. Malheureusement, nom d’utilisateur / mot de passe ne peut être la forme la plus sûre d’authentification en...network access. The team also reviewed documents relating to legal, ethical , cultural and privacy issues related to deployment. Table 1 lists some of
Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li
As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.
Douaud, Gwenaëlle; Groves, Adrian R; Tamnes, Christian K; Westlye, Lars Tjelta; Duff, Eugene P; Engvig, Andreas; Walhovd, Kristine B; James, Anthony; Gass, Achim; Monsch, Andreas U; Matthews, Paul M; Fjell, Anders M; Smith, Stephen M; Johansen-Berg, Heidi
Several theories link processes of development and aging in humans. In neuroscience, one model posits for instance that healthy age-related brain degeneration mirrors development, with the areas of the brain thought to develop later also degenerating earlier. However, intrinsic evidence for such a link between healthy aging and development in brain structure remains elusive. Here, we show that a data-driven analysis of brain structural variation across 484 healthy participants (8-85 y) reveals a largely--but not only--transmodal network whose lifespan pattern of age-related change intrinsically supports this model of mirroring development and aging. We further demonstrate that this network of brain regions, which develops relatively late during adolescence and shows accelerated degeneration in old age compared with the rest of the brain, characterizes areas of heightened vulnerability to unhealthy developmental and aging processes, as exemplified by schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease, respectively. Specifically, this network, while derived solely from healthy subjects, spatially recapitulates the pattern of brain abnormalities observed in both schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease. This network is further associated in our large-scale healthy population with intellectual ability and episodic memory, whose impairment contributes to key symptoms of schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease. Taken together, our results suggest that the common spatial pattern of abnormalities observed in these two disorders, which emerge at opposite ends of the life spectrum, might be influenced by the timing of their separate and distinct pathological processes in disrupting healthy cerebral development and aging, respectively.
Gárfias, J.; Llanos, H.; Franco, R.; Martel, R.
Groundwater vulnerability assessment is an important task in water resources and land management. Depending on the availability of data and the complexity of the hydrogeological conditions, different approaches can be adopted. As an alternative, this study involves the use of a combined approach based on vulnerability methods and advective particle tracking to better understand the susceptibility to contamination in the Toluca valley aquifer. An intrinsic vulnerability map (DRASTIC) was used to identify areas that are more susceptible to ground water contamination. To estimate advective particle tracking, we developed a 3D flow model using VisualModflow and MODPATH to describe the regional flow of groundwater. The vulnerability map demonstrates the problematic application and interpretation of qualitative the vulnerability method of the parametric system group, which indicates a difference of approximately 23% when compared with the modified vulnerability map. Potential contamination sources based on landfill sites were comparatively high; approximately 76% are located in areas that could be susceptible to contamination through vertical infiltration, especially those that are located along the Lerma system of wells. Industrial parks located in the centre of the valley (83%), where continuous extraction of groundwater and land subsidence occurs, have been classified as high vulnerability zones, increasing the risk of contaminants from surface sources reaching the groundwater. In order to understand the susceptibility to contamination in the aquifer, various delineation approaches should be adopted and all the results that validate each other should be considered, thus making a good strategy for implementing different degrees of protection measures. [es
Mahmood, K.; Khan, R.M.; Ashfaq, M.; Ahsan, A.
This study was intended to map intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater contamination in Lahore using GIS based DRASTIC model. The final output of DRASTIC model was reclassified into three equal interval classes, corresponding to low, moderate and high vulnerability regions. Most of the study area was found to have low to moderate vulnerability, with 27.48% area of low, 66.48% of moderate and only 6.04% area of high vulnerability. Most of the drinking water wells are installed in the residential area of the city, which shows low chances of contamination due to deep water table and almost no recharge. However, an industrial drain is located in the high vulnerable area in the southeastern part of the study area. The previous studies are in agreement with vulnerability zones. Further to remove any doubt in the suitability of assigned weight, map removal sensitivity analysis had been carried out. The assessment of the sensitivity analysis had been made through visual as well as quantitative methods. Priority order for contribution of the parameters in the vulnerability for the study area is D>I>C>R>A>T>S. (author)
Edward R. Carr
Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.
Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.
The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.
Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.
The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.
Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to find the extent to which the minimal variability Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA model of seismic vulnerability assessment is sensitive to variation of optimism degree. There are a variety of models proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment. In order to examine the efficiency of seismic vulnerability assessment models, the stability of results could be analysed. Seismic vulnerability assessment is done to estimate the probable losses in the future earthquake. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM methods have been applied by a number of researchers to estimate the human, physical and financial losses in urban areas. The study area of this research is Tehran Metropolitan Area (TMA which has more than eight million inhabitants. In addition, this paper assumes that North Tehran Fault (NTF is activated and caused an earthquake in TMA. 1996 census data is used to extract the attribute values for six effective criteria in seismic vulnerability assessment. The results demonstrate that minimal variability OWA model of Seismic Loss Estimation (SLE is more stable where the aggregated seismic vulnerability degree has a lower value. Moreover, minimal variability OWA is very sensitive to optimism degree in northern areas of Tehran. A number of statistical units in southern areas of the city also indicate considerable sensitivity to optimism degree due to numerous non-standard buildings. In addition, the change of seismic vulnerability degree caused by variation of optimism degree does not exceed 25 % of the original value which means that the overall accuracy of the model is acceptable.
Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.
Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study
Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min
Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.
Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar
The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology
This research thoroughly examines the current Naval Postgraduate School Gigabit Network security posture, identifies any possible threats or vulnerabilities, and recommends any appropriate safeguards...
Within this thesis a conceptual model is presented which allows for the definition of a vulnerability assessment according to its time and spatial scale and within a multi-dimensional framework, which should help to design and develop appropriate methodologies and adaptation of concepts for the required scale of implementation. Building on past experiences with participatory approaches in community mapping in the District of Buzi in Mozambique, the relevance of such approaches for a community-based disaster risk reduction framework is analysed. Finally, methodologies are introduced which allow the assessment of vulnerability and the prioritisation of vulnerability factors at the community level. At the district level, homogenous vulnerability regions are identified through the application of integrated modelling approaches which build on expert knowledge and weightings. A set of indicators is proposed, which allow the modelling of vulnerability in a data-scarce environment. In developing these different methodologies for the community and district levels, it has been identified that the monitoring of vulnerability and the identification of trends is essential to addressing the objective of a continuous and improved disaster risk management. In addition to the technical and methodological challenges discussed in this thesis, the commitment from different stakeholders and the availability of capacity in different domains is essential for the successful, practical implementation of the developed approaches. (author)
Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen
This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves
Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2 of 65Â m in (41 different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement. The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing. The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1â0.19 area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1; this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0â0.1 while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1â0.3 vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area. Keywords: Aquifer vulnerability, Longitudinal conductance, GOD and GLSI
Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.
Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.
Zhang Hongjian; Liu Tianshu; Cao Fangfang; Xu Chunyan
Safeguard seals, also called Tamper-indicating devices (TIDs), are widely used to detect tampering or unauthorized entry in the international safeguard and security systems, Seal control systems consist of seal implementing plan, seal development and the vulnerability assessment on tbe seals, effective implementing procedures and methods of the seals. The vulnerability assessment contents of safeguard seals, thermo-shrinked film seals being as an example, and seals control systems in the implementation program are researched. The seal control systems discuss task assignment, seals management flow and seals program data flow to promote applying effectively seals. The vulnerability assessment program of seals studies assurance level to some different tampering techniques and measures. The researches must promote utilizing seals effectively for nuclear security, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, radioactive waste management, and the nuclear material accounting and control. (authors)
dos Reis, Dener Carlos; de Almeida, Thiara Amanda Corrêa; Miranda, Mariane Mendes; Alves, Rodrigo Henrique; Madeira, Anézia Moreira Faria
to analyze the health vulnerabilities in adolescence associated with socioeconomic conditions, social networks, drugs and violence from the perspective of students. cross-sectional study with 678 students between 14-15 years old in Contagem, Brazil. A self-administered questionnaire divided into modules by subject was used. Quantitative, descriptive and stratified analyses were performed by sex. high percentage of adolescents (40.4%) were beneficiaries of Government financial support called "Bolsa Família" and 14.6% had a job, 57.1% and 23.6% had tried alcohol and tobacco, respectively. We identified 15% of aggression and 26.7% of bullying. The majority informed they never/rarely talk to parents about the daily difficulties (64.5%) and 22% reported insomnia and/or feelings of loneliness. the results indicated that there is a need to intensify educational activities that seek to develop cognitive, affective and social skills aimed at improving the way adolescents face the vulnerabilities, in these activities, nursing has a fundamental role.
Full Text Available Introduction: Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and drought. In the meantime, drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources, and this phenomenon is slow and creeping.Available evidence suggests that drought management is based on crisis management. As the present management in our country is based on crisis management, and drought-proneareasin thecountryhave become a society vulnerable to drought. So, the authorities require a new set of data for drought preparedness to deal with these challenges, in order to obtain the resources to be properly and effectively prioritized and reduce the effects of drought and its consequences. Undoubtedly, the starting point of vulnerability assessment and risk management is a prerequisite that has been sadly neglected in our country. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of technical, economic and social vulnerability assessment determined before and after the drought and vulnerability patterns for wheat farmers in the North of Fars province. Materials and Methods: The vulnerability of wheat farmers in the North of Fars province is determined using three methods. The first method measured ex ante vulnerability based on estimated income distributions, and the other identified ex post vulnerability according to farmers asset positions and drought coping strategy in the 1390 drought. The final section determined the patterns of vulnerability using cluster analysis and data mining. A sample of 203 farmers in three plains was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years (1390 and 1391 was carried out. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of households in the North of Fars province against drought, the formula Me-bar and Valdez has been used. In North of Fars province, as many other fields, agriculture is the main source of income and income
McInerney, M.; Griffith, P. C.; Duffy, D.; Hoy, E.; Schnase, J. L.; Sinno, S.; Thompson, J. H.
The Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) is designed to improve understanding of the causes and impacts of ecological changes in Arctic/boreal regions, and will integrate field-based studies, modeling, and data from airborne and satellite remote sensing. ABoVE will result in a fuller understanding of ecosystem vulnerability and resilience to environmental change in the Arctic and boreal regions of western North America, and provide scientific information required to develop options for societal responses to the impacts of these changes. The studies sponsored by NASA during ABoVE will be coordinated with research and in-situ monitoring activities being sponsored by a number of national and international partners. The NASA Center for Climate Simulation at the Goddard Space Flight Center has partnered with the NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Office to create a science cloud designed for this field campaign - the ABoVE Science Cloud (ASC). The ASC combines high performance computing with emerging technologies to create an environment specifically designed for large-scale modeling, analysis of remote sensing data, copious disk storage with integrated data management, and integration of core variables from in-situ networks identified by the ABoVE Science Definition Team. In this talk, we will present the scientific requirements driving the development of the ABoVE Science Cloud, discuss the necessary interfaces, both computational and human, with in-situ monitoring networks, and show examples of how the ASC is being used to meet the needs of the ABoVE campaign.
Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.
Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.
Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.
Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.
Full Text Available In this research we have attempted to measure vulnerability of the communities living in the flood prone area of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Extensive literature review was conducted to identify the flood vulnerability indicators. Primary data were used to achieve the objective of this study. Questionnaires were used to collect the primary data from the selected households and from the director of Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management. Subjective assessment technique was used to allocate weights to the selected indicators of vulnerability. A sample size of 280 respondents was taken from three selected locations of Charsadda, Nowshera and Peshawar. Simple random sampling was employed for the selection of respondents. Results revealed that overall vulnerability as well as component vulnerability for the selected locations was very high. The study therefore recommends preparedness, provision of funds for building houses with flood resistant materials and building houses in safer places. There is also a need for enhancing the adaptive capacities of the concerned communities through their socio-economic uplift. Implementation of these policies would lower the vulnerability of the communities to flood disasters.
Muhammad Saqib Khan
Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.
Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie
Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory
Ryu, J. E.; Lee, D. K.; Jung, T. Y.; Choi, K. L.; Lee, S. H.
Many countries are developing policy and measures to adapt to climate changes at the national and local levels, but the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and the establishment of countermeasures in the industries considering industrial factors such as worker, infrastructure are insufficient due to the characteristics of diverse processes and fields. In South Korea, the national government provides infrastructures for industrial parks where various companies in manufacturing and other industries are concentrated . Because of their concentration, damages can aggravate in case of natural disasters such as typhoons. In this study, vulnerability indices for climate change were developed and evaluated using climate scenarios for the climate exposure of localized terrential downpour for eight industrial parks. The vulnerability indices were selected and reviewed through literature review and two in-depth interviews with experts in various industries, and the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was conducted by collecting relevant information including the Directory of Industrial Complexes. The vulnerability of each industrial park to climate change was assessed for four time serious such as the base line, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s . As a result, even though the possibility of localized heavy rain was the highest in Yeosu(Southeast coast) at present, but it was predicted that Gwangyang(Southwest coast) will be higher in the future. For the influences of climate including sensitivity, Ulsan Mipo(Southeast coast) is currently under the highest influence of climate, but the Gumi(Inland area) was forecasted to be under the highest influence of climate in the future. As a result of the assessment of vulnerability to climate change including adaptive capacity, Gumi and Myongji Noksan(Southeast coast) were most vulnerable to localized heavy rain. The degree of vulnerability of all the industrial parks except Ulsan and Yeosu was forecasted to increase in the
Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.
Park, Jeongwon; Park, Junhong; Koo, Man Hoi
This work presents a vulnerability assessment procedure for a complex structure using vibration characteristics. The structural behavior of a three-dimensional framed structure subjected to impact forces was predicted using the spectral element method. The Timoshenko beam function was applied to simulate the impact wave propagations induced by a high-velocity projectile at relatively high frequencies. The interactions at the joints were analyzed for both flexural and longitudinal wave propagations. Simulations of the impact energy transfer through the entire structure were performed using the transient displacement and acceleration responses obtained from the frequency analysis. The kill probabilities of the crucial components for an operating system were calculated as a function of the predicted acceleration amplitudes according to the acceptable vibration levels. Following the proposed vulnerability assessment procedure, the vulnerable positions of a three-dimensional combat vehicle with high possibilities of damage generation of components by impact loading were identified from the estimated vibration responses
Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington
Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sterr, H.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reese, S.
This paper provides an overview of the latest developments in methodologies for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change at regional and local scales. The focus of vulnerability assessment in coastal zones used to be on erosion and land loss due to sea-level rise. Methodologies now increasingly consider the wide range of climate and impact variables that play a part in determining coastal vulnerability, as well as non-climatic developments. The paper presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment that identifies a number of system components that can be considered determinants of vulnerability. It then goes on to outline a number of steps that are required for the actual assessment of coastal vulnerability, such as scenario development, data collection and impact assessment. The approach is illustrated using a regional and local case study in Germany
Nanda, R. P.; Majhi, D. R.
This paper provides a brief overview of rapid visual screening (RVS) procedures available in different countries with a comparison among all the methods. Seismic evaluation guidelines from, USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, India, Europe, Italy, UNDP, with other methods are reviewed from the perspective of their applicability to developing countries. The review shows clearly that some of the RVS procedures are unsuited for potential use in developing countries. It is expected that this comparative assessment of various evaluation schemes will help to identify the most essential components of such a procedure for use in India and other developing countries, which is not only robust, reliable but also easy to use with available resources. It appears that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 154 and New Zealand Draft Code approaches can be suitably combined to develop a transparent, reasonably rigorous and generalized procedure for seismic evaluation of buildings in developing countries.
Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team
The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.
José Leandro Barros
Full Text Available Portugal’s coastline extends 1187 km. It is characterized by social, economic and physical conditions that differentiate it from the rest of the territory, including population density, location of infrastructure and support of tourism activities. Therefore, it has a significant exposure if a tsunami occurs. Six coastal study sites with varying characteristics were selected for evaluation in this paper, including two core beach-use areas, two residential areas and two industrial areas. These sites are located in the municipalities of Figueira da Foz, Setúbal and Vila do Bispo. The analysis began with the calculation of the potential tsunami inundation area for each site using the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Next, a methodology distinguished by its multidimensional character was applied to assess local vulnerability to tsunamis. This methodology assesses vulnerabilities associated with morphological, structural, social and tax factors. These four vulnerability components were combined to obtain a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI, which enabled us to identify the most vulnerable areas and to determine the distinguishing characteristics of each area.
Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D
Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.
Lenkart, John; Center for Homeland Defense and Security Naval Postgraduate School
Social networking media introduces a new set of vulnerabilities to protecting an organization's sensitive information. Adversaries are actively targeting U.S. industry to acquire trade secrets to undercut U.S. business in the marketplace. Of primary concern is an insider's betrayal of an organization by providing sensitive information to a hostile outsider. Social engineering, when coupled with the new and widespread use of social networking media, becomes more effective by exploiting the wea...
Harden, Jennifer W.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Ahlström, Anders; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Lawrence, Corey; Loisel, Julie; Malhotra, Avni; Jackson, Robert B.; Ogle, Stephen M.; Phillips, Claire; Ryals, Rebecca; Todd-Brown, Katherine; Vargas, Rodrigo; Vergara, Sintana E.; Cotrufo, M. Francesca; Keiluweit, Marco; Heckman, Katherine; Crow, Susan E.; Silver, Whendee L.; DeLonge, Marcia; Nave, Lucas E.
Soil organic matter (SOM) supports the Earth's ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retains the largest pool of actively cycling carbon. Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of SOM and SOC and their management for sustained production and climate regulation.
Harden, Jennifer W. [Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States); U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Hugelius, Gustaf [Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States); Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Ahlstrom, Anders [Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States); Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund (Sweden); Blankinship, Joseph C. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Bond-Lamberty, Ben [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Lawrence, Corey R. [U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States); Loisel, Julie [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Malhotra, Avni [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jackson, Robert B. [Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States); Ogle, Stephen [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Phillips, Claire [USDA-ARS Forage Seed and Cereal Research Unit, Corvallis, OR (United States); Ryals, Rebecca [Univ. of Hawai' i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States); Todd-Brown, Katherine [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Vargas, Rodrigo [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States); Vergara, Sintana E. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Cotrufo, M. Francesca [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Keiluweit, Marco [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Heckman, Katherine A. [USDA Forest Service, Houghton, MI (United States); Crow, Susan E. [Univ. of Hawai' i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States); Silver, Whendee L. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); DeLonge, Marcia [Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C. (United States); Nave, Lucas E. [Univ. of Michigan, Pellston, MI (United States)
Here, soil organic matter supports the Earth’s ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retain the largest pool of actively cycling carbon (C). Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance land productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well-established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of soil organic matter and C and their management for sustained production and climate regulation.
Aras, Rifat; Shen, Yuzhong
Tsunami preparedness is crucial for saving human lives in case of disasters that involve massive water movement. In this work, we develop a framework for visual assessment of tsunami preparedness of geographies. Shallow water equations (also called Saint Venant equations) are a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations that are derived by depth-integrating the Navier-Stokes equations and provide a great abstraction of water masses that have lower depths compared to their free surface area. Our specific contribution in this study is to use Microsoft's XNA Game Studio to import underwater and shore line geographies, create different tsunami scenarios, and visualize the propagation of the waves and their impact on the shore line geography. Most importantly, we utilized the computational power of graphical processing units (GPUs) as HLSL based shader files and delegated all of the heavy computations to the GPU. Finally, we also conducted a validation study, in which we have tested our model against a controlled shallow water experiment. We believe that such a framework with an easy to use interface that is based on readily available software libraries, which are widely available and easily distributable, would encourage not only researchers, but also educators to showcase ideas.
The Security Manager charged with the responsibility of designing Safeguards and Security Systems at Department of Energy facilities must take many factors into consideration. There must be a clear understanding, supported by documented guidance, of the level of threat to be addressed; the nature of the facility to be protected, and the funds available to design, implement, and maintain the Safeguards and Security System. Armed with these prerequisites, the Security Manager may then determine the characteristics of the Safeguards measures and security forces necessary to protect the facility. Security forces selection and training programs may then be established based on realistic facility needs. The next step is to attempt to determine the probability of security forces winning in a confrontation with adversaries. To determine the probability of success the Security Manager must consider the characteristics of the facility and surrounding area; the characteristics of the security forces and safeguards system at the facility; the response time and capabilities of the augmentation forces and the characteristics and capabilities of the adversary threat level to be addressed. Obviously, the Safeguards and Security Systems must initially address ''worst case'' scenarios consistent with stated guidelines. Validation of the assessment of the Safeguards and Security Systems must then be determined by simulation testing of the capabilities of the response forces against the capabilities of the adversary
Ballarin, M.; Balletti, C.; Faccio, P.; Guerra, F.; Saetta, A.; Vernier, P.
On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml) and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml) in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy "Camera degli Sposi". This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited "Camera degli Sposi" realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.
Full Text Available On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy “Camera degli Sposi”. This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited “Camera degli Sposi” realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.
Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar
Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...
Lopez Royo, M.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Jimenez, J.A.
Vulnerability is defined as the system's potential to be damaged by a certain climate change (CC) hazard, and ideally, it has to be assessed by accounting for the different factors controlling the coastal response both in negative (susceptibility) and positive (resilience) terms to changing climatic
... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. 27.240 Section 27.240 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval...
Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li
This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.
Reniers, G.L.L.; Dullaert, W.E.H.
The suggested Hazmat transport Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology presents a user-friendly approach to determine relative security risk levels of the different modes of hazardous freight transport (i.e., road, railway, inland waterways and pipeline transportation). First, transport
Metzger, M.J.; Schröter, D.; Leemans, R.; Cramer, W.
Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant
Malone, K.; Silla, A.; Johanssen, C.; Bell, D.
Introduction: This paper describes the modification and development of methodologies to assess the impacts of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) applications for Vulnerable Road users (VRUs) in the domains of safety, mobility and comfort. This effort was carried out in the context of the VRUITS
Zhao, Jensen; Zhao, Sherry Y.
While the growing popularity of social media has brought many benefits to society, it has also resulted in privacy and security threats. The authors assessed the security and vulnerability of 50 social media sites. The findings indicate that most sites (a) posted privacy and security policies but only a minority stated clearly their execution of…
Lobo, Albin; Torres-Ruiz, José M.; Burlett, Regis
for future afforestation. However, the presence of long vessels makes it difficult to assess xylem vulnerability to embolism in these species. Thanks to the development of a flow centrifuge equipped with a large rotor, we quantified (i) the between species variability of embolism resistance in four native...
Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch
Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...
Full Text Available Groundwater is among the most important freshwater resources. Worldwide, aquifers are experiencing an increasing threat of pollution from urbanization, industrial development, agricultural activities and mining enterprise. Thus, practical actions, strategies and solutions to protect groundwater from these anthropogenic sources are widely required. The most efficient tool, which helps supporting land use planning, while protecting groundwater from contamination, is represented by groundwater vulnerability assessment. Over the years, several methods assessing groundwater vulnerability have been developed: overlay and index methods, statistical and process-based methods. All methods are means to synthesize complex hydrogeological information into a unique document, which is a groundwater vulnerability map, useable by planners, decision and policy makers, geoscientists and the public. Although it is not possible to identify an approach which could be the best one for all situations, the final product should always be scientific defensible, meaningful and reliable. Nevertheless, various methods may produce very different results at any given site. Thus, reasons for similarities and differences need to be deeply investigated. This study demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of a spatial statistical method to assess groundwater vulnerability to contamination at a regional scale. The Lombardy Plain case study is particularly interesting for its long history of groundwater monitoring (quality and quantity, availability of hydrogeological data, and combined presence of various anthropogenic sources of contamination. Recent updates of the regional water protection plan have raised the necessity of realizing more flexible, reliable and accurate groundwater vulnerability maps. A comparison of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through different approaches and developed in a time span of several years has demonstrated the relevance of the
Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun
To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0.18/0.16) and Guangning (0.17/0.15) district of Zhaoqing. The score of indicators differed among different level
Full Text Available In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model. Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA. This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.
Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.
In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.
Pasi, Riccardo; Viavattene, Christophe; La Loggia, Goffredo
Natural hazards damage assets and infrastructure inducing disruptions to urban functions and key daily services. These disruptions may be short or long with a variable spatial scale of impact. From an urban planning perspective, measuring these disruptions and their consequences at an urban scale is fundamental in order to develop more resilient cities. Whereas the assessment of physical vulnerabilities and direct damages is commonly addressed, new methodologies for assessing the systemic vulnerability at the urban scale are required to reveal these disruptions and their consequences. Physical and systemic vulnerability should be measured in order to reflect the multifaceted fragility of cities in the face of external stress, both in terms of the natural/built environment and socio-economic sphere. Additionally, a systemic approach allows the consideration of vulnerability across different spatial scales, as impacts may vary and be transmitted across local, regional or national levels. Urban systems are spatially distributed and the nature of this can have significant effects on flood impacts. The proposed approach identifies the vulnerabilities of flooding within urban contexts, including both in terms of single elementary units (buildings, infrastructures, people, etc.) and systemic functioning (urban functions and daily life networks). Direct losses are appraised initially using conventional methodologies (e.g. depth-damage functions). This aims to both understand the spatial distribution of physical vulnerability and associated losses and, secondly, to identify the most vulnerable building types and ways to improve the physical adaptation of our cities, proposing changes to building codes, design principles and other municipal regulation tools. The subsequent systemic approach recognises the city as a collection of sub-systems or functional units (such as neighbourhoods and suburbs) providing key daily services for inhabitants (e.g. healthcare facilities
Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, M. S.; Kawasaki, A.
Pacific Islanders have been exposed to risks associated with climate change. Samoa, as one of the Pacific Islands, is prone to climatic hazards that will likely increase in the coming decades, affecting coastal communities and infrastructure around the islands. Climate models do not predict a reduction of such disaster events in the future in Samoa; indeed, most predict an increase. This paper identifies key infrastructure and their functions and status in order to provide an overall picture of relative vulnerability to climate-related stresses of such infrastructure on the island. By reviewing existing reports as well as holding a series of consultation meetings, a list of critical infrastructure was developed and shared with stakeholders for their consideration. An indicator-based vulnerability model (SIVM) was developed in collaboration with stakeholders to assess the vulnerability of selected infrastructure systems on the Samoan Islands. Damage costs were extracted from the Cyclone Evan recovery needs document. Additionally, data on criticality and capacity to repair damage were collected from stakeholders. Having stakeholder perspectives on these two issues was important because (a) criticality of a given infrastructure could be viewed differently among different stakeholders, and (b) stakeholders were the best available source (in this study) to estimate the capacity to repair non-physical damage to such infrastructure. Analysis of the results suggested a ranking of sectors from the most vulnerable to least vulnerable are: the transportation sector, the power sector, the water supply sector and the sewerage system.
Full Text Available Urban heat island (UHI effect is an increasingly prominent health and environmental hazard that is linked to urbanization and climate change. Greening reduces the negative impacts of UHI; trees specifically are the most effective in ambient temperature reduction. This paper investigates vulnerability to heat in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and identifies where street trees can be planted as a public intervention. We used geospatial information systems (GIS software to map a validated Heat Vulnerability Index to identify vulnerability at the block level. Using a high-low geospatial cluster analysis, we assessed where the City of Philadelphia can most effectively plant street trees to address UHI. This information was then aggregated to the neighborhood level for more effective citizen communication and policymaking. We identified that 26 of 48 (54% neighborhoods that were vulnerable to heat also lacked street trees. Of 158 Philadelphia neighborhoods, 63 (40% contained block groups of high vulnerability to either heat or street tree infrastructure. Neighborhoods that were ranked highest in both classifications were identified in two adjacent West Philadelphia neighborhoods. Planting street trees is a public service a city can potentially reduce the negative health impacts of UHI. GIS can be used to identify and recommend street tree plantings to reduce urban heat.
Sajjad, Muhammad; Li, Yangfan; Tang, Zhenghong; Cao, Ling; Liu, Xiaoping
Worldwide, humans are facing high risks from natural hazards, especially in coastal regions with high population densities. Rising sea levels due to global warming are making coastal communities' infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters. The present study aims to provide a coupling approach of vulnerability and resilience through restoration and conservation of lost or degraded coastal natural habitats to reclamation under different climate change scenarios. The integrated valuation of ecosystems and tradeoffs model is used to assess the current and future vulnerability of coastal communities. The model employed is based on seven different biogeophysical variables to calculate a natural hazard index and to highlight the criticality of the restoration of natural habitats. The results show that roughly 25% of the coastline and more than 5 million residents are in highly vulnerable coastal areas of mainland China, and these numbers are expected to double by 2100. Our study suggests that restoration and conservation in recently reclaimed areas have the potential to reduce this vulnerability by 45%. Hence, natural habitats have proved to be a great defense against coastal hazards and should be prioritized in coastal planning and development. The findings confirm that natural habitats are critical for coastal resilience and can act as a recovery force of coastal functionality loss. Therefore, we recommend that the Chinese government prioritizes restoration (where possible) and conservation of the remaining habitats for the sake of coastal resilience to prevent natural hazards from escalating into disasters.
Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.
Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian
The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available The article argues that despite the evident link between political environment and security of energy supply, political elements are not sufficiently represented in contemporary scientific literature, namely in indexes that are designed for the assessment of security of energy supply. In an attempt to fill this gap, the article presents an innovative methodology for quantitative assessment of the political vulnerabilities on security of energy supply and applies it to the analysis of the Baltic States.
Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain
Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience
Barrington, Clare; Wejnert, Cyprian; Guardado, Maria Elena; Nieto, Ana Isabel; Bailey, Gabriela Paz
The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of HIV vulnerability and opportunities for HIV prevention within the social networks of male-to-female transgender persons in San Salvador, El Salvador. We compare HIV prevalence and behavioral data from a sample of gay-identified men who have sex with men (MSM) (n = 279), heterosexual or bisexual identified MSM (n = 229) and transgender persons (n = 67) recruited using Respondent Driven Sampling. Transgender persons consistently reported higher rates of HIV risk behavior than the rest of the study population and were significantly more likely to be involved in sex work. While transgender persons reported the highest rates of exposure to HIV educational activities they had the lowest levels of HIV-related knowledge. Transgender respondents' social networks were homophilous and efficient at recruiting other transgender persons. Findings suggest that transgender social networks could provide an effective and culturally relevant opportunity for HIV prevention efforts in this vulnerable population.
Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Ángel
This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from “high erosion” to “accretion.” Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from “very high” to “no capital” land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed “very high” to “high” vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit “medium” and “low/very low” vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the “imminent collapse zone (ICZ)” which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.
Oster, D. J.; Moore, L. J.; Doran, K. J.; Stockdon, H. F.
Barrier island vulnerability to storm-generated waves is directly related to interactions between shoreface morphology and surf-zone dynamics. During storms, the seaward-most dune often limits the landward extent of wave energy; however, if maximum wave run-up exceeds the elevation of the top of the dune, overwash or inundation may occur. The ‘Storm Impact Scale’ presented by Sallenger (2000) classifies barrier beach vulnerability to individual storm events based on the elevation of the frontal dune crest and toe relative to maximum wave run-up. Changes to the dune and beachface can occur over a range of time scales, altering local vulnerability to extreme waves from storms, even as a storm is occurring. As sea level continues to rise, barrier beaches will become increasingly vulnerable to overwash and inundation from a greater number of storms. Our objective is to assess temporal trends in barrier island vulnerability while also exploring island-chain-wide response and recovery from two notably different storm events (Nor’Ida and Hurricane Bonnie) along the undeveloped barrier islands of the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR). We compare shoreline position and elevations of the frontal dune crest (DHIGH) and dune toe (DLOW) across four lidar data sets collected between 1998-2010. Observed significant wave height and period from the National Data Buoy Center and the Duck, NC Field Research Facility for the time period between 1985 and 2009 are classified to represent one-year, five-year, and ten-year storm events that serve as the basis for comparison of island vulnerability through time to a range of storm severity. Initial results reveal significant spatial and temporal variation in barrier island vulnerability to storms throughout the VCR. Despite the range of variability, all three beach features (i.e., shoreline position, DHIGH and DLOW), have moved landward indicating large-scale, widespread migration, or narrowing, of VCR barrier island landforms over the
Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan
As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention
Full Text Available Considering the importance of connecting urbanization phenomena and vulnerability assessments, this paper aims to explore vulnerability assessment in three different city sizes in the northern coast of Central Java province of Indonesia. It compares the vulnerability levels of the three cities based on their sizes (that is, levels of urbanization. It uses the most current secondary data from the lowest administrative levels, called as kelurahan (urban village, for its assessment. There are two indexes used to indicate their vulnerability levels, namely exposure and sensitivity index (ESI and adaptive capacity index (ACI. By combining the ESI and ACI, the study found that the kelurahans in Tegal (the medium sized city have similar vulnerability levels. The kelurahans in Semarang (as the big city have more combination of vulnerability levels—indicating that the city has various sensitivity, exposure, as well as adaptive capacity among its kelurahans. In Lasem (the small sized city, due to limitations imposed by adaptation—mostly because of lack of public services and high dependency on primary economic sectors—all of its kelurahans were found to be vulnerable. The study therefore concluded that the bigger a city is, the more the different areas of that city will have varying levels of vulnerability, leading to a high propensity of vulnerability among its inhabitants. On the other hand, the smaller a city is, the less capacity it will have in reducing its emerging vulnerability challenges.
It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental
Oni, T. E.; Omosuyi, G. O.; Akinlalu, A. A.
Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2) of 65 m in (41) different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness) were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement). The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer) and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing). The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1-0.19) area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area.
Aslam, Rana Ammar; Shrestha, Sangam; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad
Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F
This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...
Qayyum, Abdul; Saad, Naufal M.; Kamel, Nidal; Malik, Aamir Saeed
The monitoring of vegetation near high-voltage transmission power lines and poles is tedious. Blackouts present a huge challenge to power distribution companies and often occur due to tree growth in hilly and rural areas. There are numerous methods of monitoring hazardous overgrowth that are expensive and time-consuming. Accurate estimation of tree and vegetation heights near power poles can prevent the disruption of power transmission in vulnerable zones. This paper presents a cost-effective approach based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm to compute the height (depth maps) of objects proximal to power poles and transmission lines. The proposed CNN extracts and classifies features by employing convolutional pooling inputs to fully connected data layers that capture prominent features from stereo image patches. Unmanned aerial vehicle or satellite stereo image datasets can thus provide a feasible and cost-effective approach that identifies threat levels based on height and distance estimations of hazardous vegetation and other objects. Results were compared with extant disparity map estimation techniques, such as graph cut, dynamic programming, belief propagation, and area-based methods. The proposed method achieved an accuracy rate of 90%.
van der Keur, Peter; Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Hollis, John
type as derived by the European scale method and also derived from a neural network type PTF at the national high spatial resolution. Simulations of pesticide leaching by the one-dimensional numerical water flow and reactive solute transport model MACRO are performed for low and high values of near...... soil classes according to the first method 1 does not match the scale at a required finer scale for vulnerability mapping. Finally, the method employing a coupled MACRO-MIKE SHE catchment scale approach shows that climate change resulting in altered rainfall intensities and patterns as well as changed...
Loague, Keith; Blanke, James S; Mills, Melissa B; Diaz-Diaz, Ricardo; Corwin, Dennis L
Precious groundwater resources across the United States have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management practices to prevent subsurface pollution. Presented here are the results from a series of regional-scale vulnerability assessments for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Two relatively simple indices, the retardation and attenuation factors, are used to estimate near-surface vulnerabilities based on the chemical properties of 32 pesticides and the variability of both soil characteristics and recharge rates across the SJV. The uncertainties inherit to these assessments, derived from the uncertainties within the chemical and soil data bases, are estimated using first-order analyses. The results are used to screen and rank the chemicals based on mobility and leaching potential, without and with consideration of data-related uncertainties. Chemicals of historic high visibility in the SJV (e.g., atrazine, DBCP [dibromochloropropane], ethylene dibromide, and simazine) are ranked in the top half of those considered. Vulnerability maps generated for atrazine and DBCP, featured for their legacy status in the study area, clearly illustrate variations within and across the assessments. For example, the leaching potential is greater for DBCP than for atrazine, the leaching potential for DBCP is greater for the spatially variable recharge values than for the average recharge rate, and the leaching potentials for both DBCP and atrazine are greater for the annual recharge estimates than for the monthly recharge estimates. The data-related uncertainties identified in this study can be significant, targeting opportunities for improving future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.
Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew
Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.
Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew
Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.
Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.
Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the
Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.
The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.
Mohanty, M. P.; Sharma, T.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.
Among both rice and wheat producing countries, India holds one of the major global shares in terms of production. However, with rising population, economic variability, and increasing food demand, it has become indispensable to strategically assess the food security of the nation, particularly under changing climatic conditions. This can be achieved by improving knowledge on the impacts of climate change on crop growth and yield through understanding the current status of agricultural vulnerability and quantifying its decadal changes. The present research focuses on assessing the observed decadal changes in agricultural vulnerability over India, at a district-scale. In the study, the deliberation of multiple climatic, hydrologic, agricultural indicators will majorly facilitate evaluating their direct/indirect influence on the crop production. In addition, a set of socio-economic indicators will also be considered to understand the attribution of these factors on the change in agricultural vulnerability. Here, these indicators will be integrated into a multivariate data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to derive relative efficiency of each unit or district in crop production, which will be further transformed into a well-grounded agricultural vulnerability map. It has become essential to understand the influence of these indicators on agriculture, given that the extended periods of excessive/no rainfall or high/low temperature can alter the water cycle and hence cause stress on the agroecosystem. Likewise, change in the population density, main and marginal cultivators, main and marginal agriculture labours, improvement in management practices, or increase in power supply for agricultural use, can directly affect the food security of the region. Hence, this study will undoubtedly assist the decision-makers/strategists by highlighting the agriculturally vulnerable regions over India. Consequently, it will reassure the farmers to define bottom-up approaches in
Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.
The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term
Naso, Susanna; Chen, Albert S.; Djordjević, Slobodan; Aronica, Giuseppe T.
The classical approach to flood defence, aimed at reducing the probability of flooding through hard defences, has been substituted by flood risk management approach which accepts the idea of coping with floods and aims at reducing not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. In this view, the concept of vulnerability becomes central, such as the (non-structural) measures for its increment. On 22 November 2011, an exceptional rainstorm hit the Longano catchment (North-East part of Sicily, Italy) producing local heavy rainfall, mud-debris flow and flash flooding. The flash flood involved property, buildings, roads and more than 100 commercial estates have suffered severe damages. Some days after the event, the municipality provided people forms to describe the damages that occurred on their properties. Unfortunately, the lack of common guidelines in compiling them, their coarseness and the impossibility to have monetary information on them (such us damage data from previous events), did not allow the implementation of a detailed damage analysis. What we're developing in this work is a method for a qualitative evaluation of the consequences of floods, based on vulnerability curves for structures and classes of entities at risk. The difficulty in deriving the vulnerability curves for different building typologies, as function of the water depth, was due to the lack of quantitative information both on damages caused by previous events and on buildings' value. To solve the problem we submitted a questionnaire to a team of experts asking for an estimation of building damages to different hypothetical inundation depths. What we wanted to obtain was deriving the vulnerability data from technicians' experience, believing in the fundamental importance of the collaboration among research and professional engineers. Through the elaboration and the synthesis of the experts' estimations we derived the vulnerability curves for different building typologies and
Kanagawa, Yoshiyuki; Akahane, Manabu; Hasegawa, Atsushi; Yamaguchi, Kentaro; Onitake, Kazuo; Takaya, Satoshi; Yamamoto, Shigeki; Imamura, Tomoaki
The awareness of food terrorism has increased following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York City, United States, and many measures and policies dealing with this issue have been established worldwide. Suspected deliberate food-poisoning crimes have occurred in Japan, although they are not regarded as acts of food terrorism. One area of concern is that the small- to medium-sized companies that dominate Japan's food industry are extremely vulnerable to deliberate food poisoning. We conducted a literature research on food defense measures undertaken by the World Health Organization and in the United States and Europe. Using the Carver+Shock vulnerability assessment tool, eight food factories and related facilities in Japan were evaluated and we found the level of awareness of food defense to be low and the measures inappropriate. On the basis of this evaluation, we developed a set of guidelines that Japanese food companies can use to help develop their food defense strategies and to serve as a reference in considering specific measures.
Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore
other hand, the resilience of the individual, the household, the community, is its adaptive capacity to absorb disturbance and reorganize into a fully functioning system by anticipation, response, adaptation and recovery. A key contribution of GeoRisCA project is to assess the vulnerability to different geohazards by integrating geographic and time variability. This methodology takes into account the specificities highlighted at the regional and the local scale (urban sites). And it also considers that the vulnerability evolves with time, e.g. due to improved education, increased income, denser social networks and evolution of coping mechanisms. Using the above described methodology, one of the main objective of GeoRisCA is to developed vulnerability maps that, once associated with geohazards data, will provide decision making tools for existing preparedness and mitigation institutions.
Patenaude, C.J.; Sicherman, A.; Sacks, I.J.
The Structured Assessment Approach (SAA) was developed to help assess the vulnerability of safeguards systems to insiders in a staged manner. For physical security systems, the SAA identifies possible diversion paths which are not safeguarded under various facility operating conditions and insiders who could defeat the system via direct access, collusion or indirect tampering. For material control and accounting systems, the SAA identifies those who could block the detection of a material loss or diversion via data falsification or equipment tampering. The SAA, originally desinged to run on a mainframe computer, has been converted to run on a personal computer. Many features have been added to simplify and facilitate its use for conducting vulnerability analysis. For example, the SAA input, which is a text-like data file, is easily readable and can provide documentation of facility safeguards and assumptions used for the analysis
LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; FENG, Hao; LIU, Meijun
The vulnerability assessment of power grid is of great significance in the current research. Power system faces many kinds of uncertainty factors, and the disturbance caused by them has become one of the main factors which restrict the safe operation of power grid. To solve this problem, considering the anti-interference ability of the system when the system is disturbed and the effect of the system when the node is out of operation, a set of index to reflect the anti-interference ability and the influence of nodes are set up. On this basis, a new comprehensive vulnerability assessment method of nodes is put forward by using super efficiency data envelopment analysis to scientific integration. Finally, the simulative results of IEEE30-bus system indicated that the proposed model is rational and valid.
Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.
Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few
Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul
The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and
Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.
The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is presented here that studies the nature of the vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. Key findings of the work include determining the applicability of these indicators to fragility analysis, and the determination of the relative vulnerability of the three case study sites.
Full Text Available Hydrological risk phenomena such as floods are among the most costly natural disasters worldwide, effects consisting of socioeconomic damages and deaths. The Bâsca Chiojdului catchment area, by its morphometric and hydrographic peculiarities, is prone to generate these hydrological risk phenomena, so there is a high vulnerability in the socioeconomic elements. This paper is focused on the identification of the main socioeconomic elements vulnerable to hydrological risk phenomena such as floods, based on the assessment of their manifestation potential. Thus, following the delimitation of areas with the highest flood occurrence potential (susceptibility to floods, major socioeconomic factors existing in the basin, considering human settlements (constructions, transport infrastructure, and agricultural areas (the most important category, were superimposed. Results showed a high vulnerability for all three exposed socioeconomic elements especially in valley sectors, of which household structures were the most vulnerable, given both their importance and the high number of areas highly exposed to floods (approximately 2,500 houses and outbuildings, out of a total of about 10,250, intersect the most susceptible area to floods in the study area.
Full Text Available Land use change is a gradual process that entails dire consequences for groundwater quality and quantity. Quantitative changes in groundwater can be usually monitored by controlling the annual groundwater balance. Monitoring qualitative changes in groundwater, however, is both time-consuming and expensive. DRASTIC and SINTACS models exploit aquifer properties to predict its vulnerability. In this study, aquifer vulnerability assessment was performed by the DRASTIC & SINTACS models for future land use management in Khovayes, southwest Iran. The DRASTIC Model is based on hydrological and hydrogeological parameters involved in contaminant transport. SINTACS parameters are the same as those of the DRASTIC model, except that weighting and ranking the parameters are more flexible. Once vulnerability maps of the study region had been prepared, they were verified against the nitrate map. A correlation coefficient of 0.4 was obtained between the DRASTIC map and the nitrate one while the correlation between the SINTACS and the nitrate maps was found to be 0.8. Map removal and single-parameter sensitivity analyses were carried out, which showed the southwestern stretches of the study area as the region with the highest risk of vulnerability.
Eusgeld, Irene; Kroeger, Wolfgang; Sansavini, Giovanni; Schlaepfer, Markus; Zio, Enrico
A framework for the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures has been proposed by some of the authors. The framework basically consists of two successive stages: (i) a screening analysis for identifying the parts of the critical infrastructure most relevant with respect to its vulnerability and (ii) a detailed modeling of the operational dynamics of the identified parts for gaining insights on the causes and mechanisms responsible for the vulnerability. In this paper, a critical presentation is offered of the results of a set of investigations aimed at evaluating the potentials of (i) using network analysis based on measures of topological interconnection and reliability efficiency, for the screening task; (ii) using object-oriented modeling as the simulation framework to capture the detailed dynamics of the operational scenarios involving the most vulnerable parts of the critical infrastructure as identified by the preceding network analysis. A case study based on the Swiss high-voltage transmission system is considered. The results are cross-compared and evaluated; the needs of further research are defined
An evaluation scheme is presented in this paper which can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability according to the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The evaluation scheme results in a groundwater vulnerability map identifying areas of high, medium and low vulnerability, as necessary for the measurement planning of the WFD. The evaluation scheme is based on the definition of the vulnerability of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It considers exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the region. The adaptive capacity is evaluated in an actors' platform, which was constituted for the region in the PartizipA ("Participative modelling, Actor and Ecosystem Analysis in Regions with Intensive Agriculture") project. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, 21% of the catchment area was classified as being highly vulnerable, whereas 73% has medium vulnerability and 6% has low vulnerability. Thus, a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach is presented, which can be used in practice on a catchment scale for the WFD measurement planning.
Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan
Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioecon...
Full Text Available Water resources management has become more challenging in Taiwan due to rapid socio-economic development and the complications of climate change. This study developed a systematic procedure for assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience with an integrated tool, TaiWAP, including climate change scenarios, a weather generator, a hydrological model, and system dynamic models. Five assessment indicators, including two for vulnerability, two for resilience, and one for availability were used to quantify changes in water resources and improvements after implementing adaption measures. Each indicator was presented with 3 grades, namely low, medium, and high. Water resources vulnerability and resilience for Tainan City in southern Taiwan were evaluated. Insufficient water supply facilities capacity is the major weakness causing low resilience. Water resources allocation flexibility is limited by substantial agricultural water demands. A total of 9 adaption measures and combinations of measures were assessed. Desalination plant implementation can steadily supply public water to lessen system failure duration. Although agricultural water conservation and fallow land can greatly reduce water demand, fallow compensation is a potential cost. When food security is considered, reducing irrigation leakage will be a better adaption measure to both water and agriculture stakeholders. Both agriculture water conservation and cropping systems adjustment have cross-spatial flexibilities. The combination of desalination, reservoirs and public water conservation provide the most beneficial effects in reducing climate change impact.
Full Text Available European coasts suffer notably from hazards caused by low-probability and high-impact hydrometeorological events. The aim of the study is to assess in probabilistic terms the magnitude of storm‐induced flooding hazard along Varna regional coast (Bulgaria, western Black Sea and to identify susceptible coastal sectors (hotspots. The study is performed employing the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF developed within EU FP7 RISC-KIT project. It constitutes a screening process that allows estimation of relevant hazard intensities, extents and potential receptors’ exposure vulnerability within predefined sectors. Total water level was the chief property considered for calculation of coastal flooding hazard. It was estimated using Holman model (for sandy beaches and EurOtop formulation (for artificial or rocky slopes. Resulting values were subjected to Extreme Value Analysis to establish that the best fitting distribution corresponds to Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Furthermore, hazard extents were modelled by means of bathtubbing or overwash estimation in order to form the flooding hazard indicator. Land use, social vulnerability, transport systems, utilities and business settings were considered as exposure indicators. Finally, potential risk was assessed by coastal indices following an index-based methodology, which combines hazard and exposure indicators into a single index, thereby providing base for comparison of coastal sectors’ vulnerability. The study found that the concentration of hotspots is highest in Varna Bay.
Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.
The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of
Sun, Fuxiong; Pi, Juntao; Lv, Jin; Cao, Tian
Network security risk assessment technology can be found in advance of the network problems and related vulnerabilities, it has become an important means to solve the problem of network security. Based on attack graph and Markov chain, this paper provides a Network Security Risk Assessment Model (NSRAM). Based on the network infiltration tests, NSRAM generates the attack graph by the breadth traversal algorithm. Combines with the international standard CVSS, the attack probability of atomic nodes are counted, and then the attack transition probabilities of ones are calculated by Markov chain. NSRAM selects the optimal attack path after comprehensive measurement to assessment network security risk. The simulation results show that NSRAM can reflect the actual situation of network security objectively.
Misi, Alfred; Gumindoga, Webster; Hoko, Zvikomborero
Severe depletion and pollution of groundwater resources are of rising concern in the Upper Manyame Sub-Catchment (UMSC); Zimbabwe's most urbanised sub-catchment. Despite groundwater playing a pivotal role in the provision of potable water in the sub-catchment, it is under serious threat from anthropogenic stressors which include sewage effluents and leachates from landfills, among others. Inadequate scientific knowledge pertaining to the spatio-temporal variability of groundwater storage and vulnerability in the UMSC is further compromising its sustainability. Therefore, comprehensive assessments of UMSC's Groundwater Potential (GP) and vulnerability are crucial for its effective management. This study assessed GP and vulnerability in the UMSC using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing techniques. Groundwater conditioning factors: geology, slope, land-use, drainage density, topographic index, altitude, recharge and rainfall were used to develop GP zones. Validation of the GP map was done by correlating estimated GP with historical borehole yields. An assessment of groundwater vulnerability was done at micro-catchment level (Marimba) using the GOD model; a three parameter Index Overlay Model. Marimba is the most urbanised and has the second highest borehole density. It also exhibits similar landuse characteristics as the UMSC. Furthermore, groundwater quality in Marimba was assessed from 15 sampling sites. Fifteen drinking water parameters were analysed based on the standard methods for Water and Wastewater Examination. The potability of groundwater was then assessed by comparing the measured water quality parameters with the Standards Association of Zimbabwe (SAZ) drinking water standards and/or WHO guidelines for drinking water. Repeated Measures ANOVA and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to assess the spatio-temporal variations in groundwater quality and to identify key parameters, respectively. About 72% (2725.9 km2) of the UMSC was
Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth
vulnerability and resilience assessments. For instance, the collation of insurance loss data with event documentations containing information on flood intensity allows to develop damage curves. Flood damage curves are fundamental for many risk analysis methodologies but to date only few are published and the spatial and temporal scope of their applicability is subject of discussion. Another possibility of using insurance data lies in the field of assessment exposure, where the analysis of comprehensive insurance portfolio data can improve the understanding of the physical but also the socio-economical vulnerability of a society. The poster spotlights key opportunities and challenges scientists are facing when using insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments.
Schwägele, F.C.; Andrée, S.; Beraquet, N.; Castrillon, M.; Winkel, C.; Garforth, D.; Cnossen, H.J.; Lucas Luijckx, N.B.; Ayalew, G.
The specific targeted European research project ΣChain (2006) addresses existing as well as potential vulnerabilities within food chains. One of the food chains within the focus of ΣChain is dealing with poultry meat. Fundamental for the assessment of potential vulnerabilities in the chain is basic
Full Text Available Across the world, numerous sites of cultural heritage value are at risk from a variety of human-induced and natural hazards such as war and earthquakes. Here we present and test a novel indicator-based method for assessing the vulnerability of archaeological sites to earthquakes. Vulnerability is approached as a dynamic element assessed through a combination of spatial and temporal parameters. The spatial parameters examine the susceptibility of the sites to the secondary Earthquake Environmental Effects of ground liquefaction, landslides and tsunami and are expressed through the Spatial Susceptibility Index (SSi. Parameters of physical vulnerability, economic importance and visitors density examine the temporal vulnerability of the sites expressed through the Temporal Vulnerability Index (TVi. The equally weighted sum of the spatial and temporal indexes represents the total Archaeological Site Vulnerability Index (A.S.V.I.. The A.S.V.I method is applied at 16 archaeological sites across Greece, allowing an assessment of their vulnerability. This then allows the establishment of a regional and national priority list for considering future risk mitigation. Results indicate that i the majority of the sites have low to moderate vulnerability to earthquake hazard, ii Neratzia Fortress on Kos and Heraion on Samos are characterised as highly vulnerable and should be prioritised for further studies and mitigation measures, and iii the majority of the sites are susceptible to at least one Earthquake Environmental Effect and present relatively high physical vulnerability attributed to the existing limited conservation works. This approach highlights the necessity for an effective vulnerability assessment methodology within the existing framework of disaster risk management for cultural heritage.
Graf, T.; Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.; Molson, J. W.
Several methods exist to assess intrinsic groundwater (re)source vulnerability for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management and protection. However, several methods are empirical and limited in their application to specific types of hydrogeological systems. Recent studies suggest that a physically-based approach could be better suited to provide a general, conceptual and operational basis for groundwater vulnerability assessment. A novel method for physically-based assessment of intrinsic aquifer vulnerability is currently under development and tested to explore the potential of an integrated modelling approach, combining groundwater travel time probability and future scenario modelling in conjunction with the fully integrated HydroGeoSphere model. To determine the intrinsic groundwater resource vulnerability, a fully coupled 2D surface water and 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow model in conjunction with a 3D geological model (GoCAD) has been developed for a case study of the Rivière Saint-Charles (Québec/Canada) regional scale, urban watershed. The model has been calibrated under transient flow conditions for the hydrogeological, variably-saturated subsurface system, coupled with the overland flow zone by taking into account monthly recharge variation and evapotranspiration. To better determine the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, two independent approaches are considered and subsequently combined in a simple, holistic multi-criteria-decision analyse. Most data for the model comes from an extensive hydrogeological database for the watershed, whereas data gaps have been complemented via field tests and literature review. The subsurface is composed of nine hydrofacies, ranging from unconsolidated fluvioglacial sediments to low permeability bedrock. The overland flow zone is divided into five major zones (Urban, Rural, Forest, River and Lake) to simulate the differences in landuse, whereas the unsaturated zone is represented via the model
Stanislav Evgenyevich Kirillov; Nikolai Petrovich Lavrentiev
Fuzzing for vulnerabilities can be very effective if we know the input data format. This work contains description of network message format recovery algorithm and the usage of restored data model in fuzzing and vulnerabilities search.
Stanislav Evgenyevich Kirillov
Full Text Available Fuzzing for vulnerabilities can be very effective if we know the input data format. This work contains description of network message format recovery algorithm and the usage of restored data model in fuzzing and vulnerabilities search.
Andersen, L.J.; Gosk, E.
A number of aspects to vulnerability maps are discussed: the vulnerability concept, mapping purposes, possible users, and applicability of vulnerability maps. Problems associated with general-type vulnerability mapping, including large-scale maps, universal pollutant, and universal pollution scenario are also discussed. An alternative approach to vulnerability assessment - specific vulnerability mapping for limited areas, specific pollutant, and predefined pollution scenario - is suggested. A simplification of the vulnerability concept is proposed in order to make vulnerability mapping more objective and by this means more comparable. An extension of the vulnerability concept to the rest of the hydrogeological cycle (lakes, rivers, and the sea) is proposed. Some recommendations regarding future activities are given
Geddes, R.L.; Barone, A.; Shook, H.E. Varner, C.E.; Rollins, R.
This report fulfills the directive issued by the Secretary of Energy on February 22, 1996 to complete a comprehensive assessment of potential vulnerabilities associated with the management of highly enriched uranium (HEU) throughout the DOE complex. In a subsequent letter instruction, the DOE-SR Field Office formally directed WSRC to conduct an assessment of the HEU materials at SRS. The term ''ES and H vulnerabilities'' is defined for the purpose of this assessment to mean conditions or weaknesses that could lead to unnecessary or increased exposure of workers or the public to radiation or to HEU-associated chemical hazards, or to the release of radioactive materials to the environment. The assessment will identify and prioritize ES and H vulnerabilities, and will serve as an information base for identifying corrective actions for the safe management of HEU. Primary facilities that hold HEU at SRS are H-Canyon, K-Reactor assembly area, K, L, and P-Reactor disassembly basins, and the Receiving Basin for Offsite Fuels (RBOF)
Wang, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Jingyi; Ma, Qing
Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.
Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz
The Three Gorges dam construction was completed in 2006. Besides the international media, also the responsible authorities and various scholarly communities pay close attention to potential and actual environmental impacts related to the impoundment and development activities. The geo-environment within the Three Gorges region is highly conducive to landslides. Consequently, a scientific monitoring and risk mitigation system was established and is still under development. Risk analysis with regard to gravity driven mass movements is highly complex and strongly site specific - several aspects hamper a universal methodology applicable for landslide risk and site assessment. The interdisciplinary Sino-German Yangtze-Project Research co-operation aims, among others, to support the sustainable cultivation of the newly developed ecosystems within the Yangtze catchments. Land use change and increasing population growth are causing severe pressure on the scarce land resources. Landslides are acknowledged as important threat, hence vulnerability of certain landscape components have to be identified, quantified and monitored. A nested quantitative approach for vulnerability analysis is developed. The applied risk and vulnerability model understands risk as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Whereas vulnerability is characterized by: mass movement intensity and susceptibility of the respective element at risk. The watershed of Xiangxi river serves as study area. In general, catchment approaches intent and proved to be a functional geographical unit for successful integrated resources management. Several limitations with regard to data accessibility, availability and accuracy have to be considered due to restrictions of feasible scales. Comprehensive large-scale site investigations are confined to training areas for model calibration and validation. Remote sensing potentials are utilised for land use/ land cover change analysis and localization of selected elements
Poulter, Benjamin; Goodall, Jonathan L.; Halpin, Patrick N.
SummaryThe vulnerability of coastal landscapes to sea level rise is compounded by the existence of extensive artificial drainage networks initially built to lower water tables for agriculture, forestry, and human settlements. These drainage networks are found in landscapes with little topographic relief where channel flow is characterized by bi-directional movement across multiple time-scales and related to precipitation, wind, and tidal patterns. The current configuration of many artificial drainage networks exacerbates impacts associated with sea level rise such as salt-intrusion and increased flooding. This suggests that in the short-term, drainage networks might be managed to mitigate sea level rise related impacts. The challenge, however, is that hydrologic processes in regions where channel flow direction is weakly related to slope and topography require extensive parameterization for numerical models which is limited where network size is on the order of a hundred or more kilometers in total length. Here we present an application of graph theoretic algorithms to efficiently investigate network properties relevant to the management of a large artificial drainage system in coastal North Carolina, USA. We created a digital network model representing the observation network topology and four types of drainage features (canal, collector and field ditches, and streams). We applied betweenness-centrality concepts (using Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm) to determine major hydrologic flowpaths based off of hydraulic resistance. Following this, we identified sub-networks that could be managed independently using a community structure and modularity approach. Lastly, a betweenness-centrality algorithm was applied to identify major shoreline entry points to the network that disproportionately control water movement in and out of the network. We demonstrate that graph theory can be applied to solving management and monitoring problems associated with sea level rise
Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William
sector. This method was developed through the cooperation of the many organizations and the individuals involved from the chemical sector RAMCAP development activities. The RAMCAP SVA method is intended to provide a common basis for making vulnerability assessments and risk-based decisions for homeland security. Mr. Moore serves as the coordinator for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and LNG sectors for the RAMCAP project and Dr. Jones is the chief technology officer for ASME-ITI, LLC for RAMCAP.
Moore, David A.; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J. William
sector. This method was developed through the cooperation of the many organizations and the individuals involved from the chemical sector RAMCAP development activities. The RAMCAP SVA method is intended to provide a common basis for making vulnerability assessments and risk-based decisions for homeland security. Mr. Moore serves as the coordinator for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and LNG sectors for the RAMCAP project and Dr. Jones is the chief technology officer for ASME-ITI, LLC for RAMCAP
Moran, J E; Hudson, G B; Eaton, G F; Leif, R
In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MTBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement this groundwater assessment program. In 2003, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basin that underlies Bakersfield, in the southern San Joaquin Valley. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3 method). In addition, stable oxygen isotope measurements help determine the recharge water
A. Paige Fischer; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll; Daniel Murphy; Hannah Brenkert-Smith
Public land management agencies have incorporated the concept of vulnerability into protocols for assessing and planning for climate change impacts on public forests and grasslands. However, resource managers and planners have little guidance for how to address the social aspects of vulnerability in these assessments and plans. Failure to assess social vulnerability to...
Ali, Bako; Awad, Ali Ismail
The Internet of Things (IoT) is an emerging paradigm focusing on the connection of devices, objects, or "things" to each other, to the Internet, and to users. IoT technology is anticipated to become an essential requirement in the development of smart homes, as it offers convenience and efficiency to home residents so that they can achieve better quality of life. Application of the IoT model to smart homes, by connecting objects to the Internet, poses new security and privacy challenges in terms of the confidentiality, authenticity, and integrity of the data sensed, collected, and exchanged by the IoT objects. These challenges make smart homes extremely vulnerable to different types of security attacks, resulting in IoT-based smart homes being insecure. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the possible security risks to develop a complete picture of the security status of smart homes. This article applies the operationally critical threat, asset, and vulnerability evaluation (OCTAVE) methodology, known as OCTAVE Allegro, to assess the security risks of smart homes. The OCTAVE Allegro method focuses on information assets and considers different information containers such as databases, physical papers, and humans. The key goals of this study are to highlight the various security vulnerabilities of IoT-based smart homes, to present the risks on home inhabitants, and to propose approaches to mitigating the identified risks. The research findings can be used as a foundation for improving the security requirements of IoT-based smart homes.
Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.
The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is proposed that studies the nature of vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide key findings and guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of key vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. This in turn facilitates the production of strategies for mitigating and managing the losses threatened by such extreme climate events.
Winston T. L. Chow
Full Text Available We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, despite effective flood management, (i significant increases in reported flash flood frequency occurred in contemporary (post-2000 relative to preceding (1984–1999 periods, (ii these flash floods coincide with more localised, “patchy” storm events, (iii storms in recent years are also more intense and frequent, and (iv floods result in low human casualties but have high economic costs via insurance damage claims. We assess that Singapore presently has low vulnerability to floods vis-à-vis other regional cities largely due to holistic flood management via consistent and successful infrastructural development, widespread flood monitoring, and effective advisory platforms. We conclude, however, that future vulnerabilities may increase from stresses arising from physical exposure to climate change and from demographic sensitivity via rapid population growth. Anticipating these changes is potentially useful in maintaining the high resilience of Singapore towards this hydrometeorological hazard.
Full Text Available This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011, focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data represent two outputs from the Northeast Fisheries Climate Vulnerability assessment. The first are the biological sensitivity and climate exposure scores...
Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman
Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Husnayaen; Rimba, A. Besse; Osawa, Takahiro; Parwata, I. Nyoman Sudi; As-syakur, Abd. Rahman; Kasim, Faizal; Astarini, Ida Ayu
Research has been conducted in Semarang, Indonesia, to assess coastal vulnerability under enhanced land subsidence using multi-sensor satellite data, including the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band SAR (PALSAR), Landsat TM, IKONOS, and TOPEX/Poseidon. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was constructed to estimate the level of vulnerability of a coastline approximately 48.68 km in length using seven physical variables, namely, land subsidence, relative sea level change, coastal geomorphology, coastal slope, shoreline change, mean tidal range, and significant wave height. A comparison was also performed between a CVI calculated using seven parameters and a CVI using six parameters, the latter of which excludes the land subsidence parameter, to determine the effects of land subsidence during the coastal vulnerability assessment. This study showed that the accuracy of coastal vulnerability was increased 40% by adding the land subsidence factor (i.e., CVI 6 parameters = 53%, CVI 7 parameters = 93%). Moreover, Kappa coefficient indicated very good agreement (0.90) for CVI 7 parameters and fair agreement (0.3) for CVI 6 parameters. The results indicate that the area of very high vulnerability increased by 7% when land subsidence was added. Hence, using the CVI calculation including land subsidence parameters, the very high vulnerability area is determined to be 20% of the total coastline or 9.7 km of the total 48.7 km of coastline. This study proved that land subsidence has significant influence on coastal vulnerability in Semarang.
Intrinsic vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and land use planning. The vulnerability for the alluvial aquifer in El-Fayoum depression was assessed by applying the Drastic model as well as utilizing sensitivity analyses to evaluate the reliability of this model. This method uses seven parameters including climatic, geological, and hydrogeological conditions controlling the seepage of pollutant substances to groundwater. Vulnerability maps were produced by applying the Generic and Agricultural models according to the Drastic charter. The resulting agricultural Drastic vulnerability map indicates that 23.3%, 22.7% and 12.4% of El-Fayoum depression is under low, low-moderate and moderately high vulnerability of groundwater contamination, respectively, while 41.6% of the area of study can be designated as an area of moderate vulnerability of groundwater contamination. Resulting maps revealed that the potential for polluting groundwater with agricultural chemicals is greater than with Generic Drastic index pollutants. Depth to water table parameter inflicted the largest impact on the intrinsic vulnerability of the alluvial aquifer in El-Fayoum depression. Both the map removal and single-parameter sensitivity analyses indicated that the vulnerability index is the least sensitive to the removal of the recharge and hydraulic conductivity parameters but is highly sensitive to the removal of depth to water parameter.
Kazakis, Nerantzis; Spiliotis, Mike; Voudouris, Konstantinos; Pliakas, Fotios-Konstantinos; Papadopoulos, Basil
Groundwater constitutes the primary source of fresh water for >1.2 billion people living in coastal zones. However, the threat of seawater intrusion is widespread in coastal aquifers mainly due to overexploitation of groundwater. In the present study, a modified fuzzy multicriteria categorization into non-ordered categories method was developed in order to modify the standard GALDIT method and assess seawater intrusion vulnerability in a coastal aquifer of northern Greece. The method is based on six parameters: groundwater occurrence, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, groundwater level, distance from the shore, impact of the existing status of seawater intrusion, and aquifer thickness. Initially, the original method was applied and revealed a zone of high vulnerability running parallel to the coastline and covering an area of 8.6km 2 . The modified GALDIT-F method achieved higher discretization of vulnerability zones which is essential to build a rational management plan to prevent seawater intrusion. The GALDIT-F approach also distinguished an area of the aquifer that is influenced by geothermal fluids. In total, twenty-five categories were produced corresponding to different vulnerability degrees according to the initial method (High, Moderate, Low) as well as the area influenced by geothermal fluids. Finally, a road map was developed in order to adapt management strategies to GALDIT-F categories and prevent and mitigate seawater intrusion. The proposed management strategies of the coastal aquifer include managed aquifer recharge (MAR) implementation, reallocation of existing wells, optimization of pumping rates during the hydrological year, and a detailed monitoring plan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Tran, Liem T., E-mail: email@example.com [Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); O& #x27; Neill, Robert V. [OTIE and Associates, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Smith, Elizabeth R. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
The paper presents a method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region. The method is based on the concept of 'self-/peer-appraisal' of a watershed in term of vulnerability. The self-/peer-appraisal process is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. The analysis provided insights on the environmental conditions, in general, and the relative vulnerability pattern, in particular, of the Mid-Atlantic region. The suggested method offers a simple but effective and objective way to perform a regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Consequently the method can be used in various steps in environmental assessment and planning. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a method for regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It is based on the self-/peer-appraisal concept in term of vulnerability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analysis is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method provides insights on the regional relative vulnerability pattern.
Najihah, R; Effendi, D M; Hairunnisa, M A; Masiri, K
The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters
Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.
The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.
Elements of network-based assessment systems are envisioned based on recent advances in knowledge and practice in learning theory, assessment design and delivery, and semantic web interoperability. The architecture takes advantage of the meditating role of technology as well as recent models of assessment systems. This overview of the elements…
Longo, Bernadette M; Yang, Wei; Green, Joshua B; Longo, Anthony A; Harris, Merylin; Bibilone, Renwick
The Ka'u District of Hawaii is exposed to sulfurous air pollution called vog from the ongoing eruption of Kilauea Volcano. Increased volcanic activity in 2008 prompted an indoor air quality assessment of the district's hospital and schools. All indoor sulfur dioxide concentrations were above the World Health Organization's average 24-hour recommendation. Indoor penetration ratios were up to 94% of ambient levels and dependent upon building construction or the use of air-conditioning. Health-promotion efforts for vulnerable populations at the hospital and schools are under way to improve indoor air quality and respond to those affected by vog exposure.
Paillere, H.; Cameron, R. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Issy-les-Moulineaux, Paris (France); Caneill, J.-Y. [EDF Group, Paris, (France); Syri, S. [Aalto Univ., Dept. of Energy Technology, Aalto (Finland)
This paper reports on the preliminary outcome of an OECD study (2013-14) aimed at assessing the vulnerability of nuclear power generation in the event of extreme weather events that could be induced by climate change. Nuclear power plants (NPPs), just as other energy infrastructures, can be affected by phenomena such as floods, storms, heat waves, droughts, etc. This paper reports on examples of extreme weather events that have affected the operation of NPPs, and describes the adaptation strategy that can be implemented to improve the resilience of existing generating assets as well as new infrastructures. (author)
Kramer, K.; Kuikman, P.J.; Veraart, J.A.; Van Walsum, P.E.V.; Westein, E.; Verhagen, A.; Daan, N.; Van Ierland, E.C.; Szoenyi, J.; De Groot, R.S.; Van Vliet, A.; Martens, P.; Amelung, B.; Huynen, M.
In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out
Wehner, Martin; Sandland, Carl; Edwards, Mark; Ginger, John; Holmes, John
Knowledge of the degree of damage to residential structures expected from severe wind is used to study the benefits from adaptation strategies developed in response to expected changes in wind severity due to climate change. This study will inform government, the insurance industry and provide emergency services with estimates of expected damage. A series of heuristic wind vulnerability curves for Australian residential structures has been developed. In order to provide rigor to the heuristic curves and to enable quantitative assessment to be made of adaptation strategies, work has commenced to produce a simulation tool to quantitatively assess damage to buildings from severe wind. The simulation tool accounts for variability in wind profile, shielding, structural strength, pressure coefficients, building orientation, component self weights, debris damage and water ingress via a Monte Carlo approach. The software takes a component-based approach to modelling building vulnerability. It is based on the premise that overall building damage is strongly related to the failure of key components (i.e. connections). If these failures can be ascertained, and associated damage from debris and water penetration reliably estimated, scenarios of complete building damage can be assessed. This approach has been developed with varying degrees of rigor by researchers around the world and is best practice for the insurance industry.
Wan, Fangjun; Xin, Zheng; Zhou, Lin; Bai, Li; Wang, Yongming; Gu, Shaohua; Liu, Shouqin; Li, Mengmeng; Sang, Shaowei; Zhang, Ji; Liu, Qiyong
To find out the differences in regional characteristics of heat vulnerability between people living in urban centers and urban-fringe areas of Jinan city so as to provide basis for the development of adaptation measures to heat. A cross-sectional survey on heat vulnerability was conducted in urban center and urban-fringe areas of Jinan city, using a self-designed questionnaire among 801 residents at the age of 16 years or older in August 2013. Data of 23 indicators related to heat vulnerability were collected and aggregated to 7 dimensions:health and medical insurance, social networks, heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, resources, living environment and working environment. An index score was calculated using a balanced weighted average approach for each dimension, ranging from 0 to 1, with the closer to 1 as greater vulnerability. The scores on heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, resources and working environment dimensions for urban-fringe areas were 0.42,0.63,0.55 and 0.62, statistically significantly higher than the urban center area of 0.41,0.51,0.26 and 0.41. Scores of living environment, social networks and health/medical insurance dimensions for urban center area were 0.57,0.49 and 0.31, which were all higher than the urban-fringe areas of 0.50,0.46 and 0.25, with differences statistically significant. Residents living in the urban center might be more vulnerable to heat in terms of living environment, health/medical insurance and social networks while residents living in the urban-fringe areas might more be vulnerable in terms of heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, life resources and working environment. These facts indicated that heat vulnerability among residents could be quite different, even at a fine geographic sale. We would thus suggest that intervention strategies on protecting people from heat, should be more targeted.
Flynn, M. J.
Cape Hatteras National Seashore is located along the Outer Banks, a narrow string of barrier islands in eastern North Carolina. The seashore was established to preserve cultural and natural resources of national significance, yet these islands have shoreline rates of change that are predominately erosional, frequently experience storm surge inundation driven by tropical and extra-tropical storm events, and are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. The National Park Service staff are concerned about the vulnerability of historic structures located within the park, and recognized the utility of a coastal hazard risk assessment to assist park managers with long-term planning. They formed a cooperative agreement with researchers at East Carolina University to conduct the assessment, which primarily used GIS to evaluate the susceptibility of 27 historical structures to coastal erosion, storm surge, and sea-level rise. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to calculate a linear regression rate of shoreline movement based on historical shorelines. Those rates were used to simulate the future position of the shoreline along transects. The SLOSH model output was down scaled to a DEM generated from the 2014 NC QL2 LiDAR collection to determine the extent and depth of inundation that would occur from storm events. Sea level rise was modeled for various scenarios referenced to existing MHHW, and also added to each SLOSH model output to determine the effect of a storm event under those sea level rise scenarios. Risk maps were developed to include not only areal coverage for existing structures and districts, but also identify potential areas of relocation or retreat in the long-term. In addition to evaluating vulnerability, timelines for potential impacts provided scenarios for National Park Service staff to research adaption and mitigation strategies.
Kim, J. H.; Sutley, E. J.; Chowdhury, A. G.; Hamideh, S.
A significant portion of the U.S. building inventory exists in hurricane- and flood-prone regions. The accompanying storm surge and rising water levels often result in the inundation of residential homes, particularly those occupied by low income households and forcing displacement. In order to mitigate potential damages, a popular design technique is to elevate the structure using piers or piles to above the base flood elevation. This is observed for single-family and multi-family homes, including manufactured homes and post-disaster temporary housing, albeit at lower elevations. Although this design alleviates potential flood damage, it affects the wind-structure interaction by subjecting the structure to higher wind speeds due to its increased height and also having a path for the wind to pass underneath the structure potentially creating new vulnerabilities to wind loading. The current ASCE 7 Standard (2016) does not include a methodology for addressing the modified aerodynamics and estimating wind loads for elevated structures, and thus the potential vulnerability during high wind events is unaccounted for in design. Using experimentally measured wind pressures on elevated and non-elevated residential building models, tax data, and census data, a coupled vulnerability assessment is performed at the community-level. Galveston, Texas is selected as the case study community. Using the coupled assessment model, a hindcast of 2008 Hurricane Ike is used for predicting physical damage and household dislocation. The predicted results are compared with the actual outcomes of the 2008 hurricane disaster. Recommendations are made (1) for code adoption based on the experimentally measured wind loads, and (2) for mitigation actions and policies that would could decrease population dislocation and promote recovery.
Joshua Steven Reece
Full Text Available Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri, Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii, Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis, and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium. We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.
Tuberville, Tracey D.; Andrews, Kimberly M.; Sperry, Jinelle H.; Grosse, Andrew M.
Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.
Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.
Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability
Full Text Available Neuroimaging and neurophysiology have revealed that multiple areas in the prefrontal cortex (PFC are activated in a specific memory task, but severity of impairment after PFC lesions is largely different depending on which activated area is damaged. The critical relationship between lesion sites and impairments has not yet been given a clear mechanistic explanation. Although recent works proposed that a whole-brain network contains hubs that play integrative roles in cortical information processing, this framework relying on an anatomy-based structural network cannot account for the vulnerable locus for a specific task, lesioning of which would bring impairment. Here, we hypothesized that (i activated PFC areas dynamically form an ordered network centered at a task-specific "functional hub" and (ii the lesion-effective site corresponds to the "functional hub," but not to a task-invariant "structural hub." To test these hypotheses, we conducted functional magnetic resonance imaging experiments in macaques performing a temporal contextual memory task. We found that the activated areas formed a hierarchical hub-centric network based on task-evoked directed connectivity, differently from the anatomical network reflecting axonal projection patterns. Using a novel simulated-lesion method based on support vector machine, we estimated severity of impairment after lesioning of each area, which accorded well with a known dissociation in contextual memory impairment in macaques (impairment after lesioning in area 9/46d, but not in area 8Ad. The predicted severity of impairment was proportional to the network "hubness" of the virtually lesioned area in the task-evoked directed connectivity network, rather than in the anatomical network known from tracer studies. Our results suggest that PFC areas dynamically and cooperatively shape a functional hub-centric network to reallocate the lesion-effective site depending on the cognitive processes, apart from
Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani
Full Text Available Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of Oman, are vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts of environmental and climate change. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes are exerting pressures and have direct impacts on increasing demands for water resources and their vulnerability. In this study, vulnerability assessment was carried out using guidelines prepared by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and Peking University to evaluate four components of the water resource system: water resources stress, water development pressure, ecological health, and management capacity. The calculated vulnerability index (VI was high, indicating that the water resources are experiencing levels of stress. Ecosystem deterioration was the dominant parameter and management capacity was the dominant category driving the vulnerability on water resources. The vulnerability assessment will support policy and decision makers in evaluating options to modify existing policies. It will also help in developing long-term strategic plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures and implement effective policies for sustainable water resources management, and therefore the sustenance of human wellbeing in the region.
Knoop, V.L.; Snelder, M.; Van Zuylen, H.J.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.
Literature proposes link-based indicators as predictors of the delay caused by a blockade on a particular link. This paper cross-compares these indicators and compares them with the result of a full simulation. The indicators predict different links to be vulnerable. Furthermore, the indicators do
Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan
Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national
Rivers, J.D.; Johnson, O.B.; Callahan, S.N.
Full text: Risk management is an essential element in influencing how the United States Department of Energy's safeguards and security mission is executed. Risk management exists as a function of a target's attractiveness, along with the potential consequences associated with the unauthorized use of that target. The goal of risk management encompasses the fielding and operating of appropriate, cost-effective protection systems generating sufficient deterrence to protect sensitive programs and facilities. Risk mitigation and risk prevention are accomplished through the vulnerability assessment process. The implementation and continued validation of measures to prevent or mitigate risk to acceptable levels constitute the fundamental approach of the Department's risk management program. Due to the incomplete knowledge inherent in any threat definition, it is impossible to precisely tailor a protective system to defend against all threats. The challenge presented to safeguards and security program managers lies in developing systems sufficiently effective to defend against an array of threats slightly greater than can be hypothetically postulated (the design basis threat amended for local conditions). These systems are then balanced against technological, resource, and fiscal constraints. A key element in the risk assessment process is analyzing the security systems against the Design Basis Threat (DBT). The DBT is used to define the level and capability of the threat against the DOE facilities and their assets. In particular it defines motivation, numbers of adversaries, capabilities, and their objectives. Site Safeguards and Security Plans (SSSPs) provide the basis and justification for safeguards and security program development, budget, and staffing requirements. The SSSP process examines, describes, and documents safeguards and security programs, site-wide and by facility; establishes safeguards and security program improvement priorities; describes site and
Full Text Available In this paper is presented intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the aquifer in the Rižana spring chatcment by the method SINTACS. It is parametric method that takes into consideration seven parameters (depth to ground water, effective infiltration action, unsaturatedzone attenuation capacity, soil/overburden attenuation capacity, hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer, hydraulic conductivity range of aquifer, hydrologic role of the topographic slope. Parameters are presented in grid information layers that wereelaborated on the basis of interpretation and GIS processing of geological, hydrogeological,speleological, topographical, meteorological and pedological data. According to the parametersimportance for vulnerability assessment, a multiplier (importance weight was assigned to each parameter. Final map of vulnerability is a result of overlaying (summing of weighted information layers (parameters and shows the catchment area of the Rižanaspring subdivided into six vulnerability classes.
Full Text Available The Internet of Things (IoT is an emerging paradigm focusing on the connection of devices, objects, or “things” to each other, to the Internet, and to users. IoT technology is anticipated to become an essential requirement in the development of smart homes, as it offers convenience and efficiency to home residents so that they can achieve better quality of life. Application of the IoT model to smart homes, by connecting objects to the Internet, poses new security and privacy challenges in terms of the confidentiality, authenticity, and integrity of the data sensed, collected, and exchanged by the IoT objects. These challenges make smart homes extremely vulnerable to different types of security attacks, resulting in IoT-based smart homes being insecure. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the possible security risks to develop a complete picture of the security status of smart homes. This article applies the operationally critical threat, asset, and vulnerability evaluation (OCTAVE methodology, known as OCTAVE Allegro, to assess the security risks of smart homes. The OCTAVE Allegro method focuses on information assets and considers different information containers such as databases, physical papers, and humans. The key goals of this study are to highlight the various security vulnerabilities of IoT-based smart homes, to present the risks on home inhabitants, and to propose approaches to mitigating the identified risks. The research findings can be used as a foundation for improving the security requirements of IoT-based smart homes.
Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio
Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2 = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is an emerging paradigm focusing on the connection of devices, objects, or “things” to each other, to the Internet, and to users. IoT technology is anticipated to become an essential requirement in the development of smart homes, as it offers convenience and efficiency to home residents so that they can achieve better quality of life. Application of the IoT model to smart homes, by connecting objects to the Internet, poses new security and privacy challenges in terms of the confidentiality, authenticity, and integrity of the data sensed, collected, and exchanged by the IoT objects. These challenges make smart homes extremely vulnerable to different types of security attacks, resulting in IoT-based smart homes being insecure. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the possible security risks to develop a complete picture of the security status of smart homes. This article applies the operationally critical threat, asset, and vulnerability evaluation (OCTAVE) methodology, known as OCTAVE Allegro, to assess the security risks of smart homes. The OCTAVE Allegro method focuses on information assets and considers different information containers such as databases, physical papers, and humans. The key goals of this study are to highlight the various security vulnerabilities of IoT-based smart homes, to present the risks on home inhabitants, and to propose approaches to mitigating the identified risks. The research findings can be used as a foundation for improving the security requirements of IoT-based smart homes. PMID:29518023
Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.
Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.
Arosio, Marcello; Martina, Mario L. V.
The emergent behaviour of the contemporary complex, socio-technical and interconnected society makes the collective risk greater than the sum of the parts and this requires a holistic, systematic and integrated approach. Although there have been major improvements in recent years, there are still some limitation in term of a holistic approach that is able to include the emergent value hidden in the connections between exposed elements and the interactions between the different spheres of the multi-hazards, vulnerability, exposure and resilience. To deal with these challenges it is necessary to consider the connections between the exposed elements (e.g. populations, schools, hospital, etc.) and to quantify the relative importance of the elements and their interconnections (e.g. the need of injured people to go to hospital or children to school). In a system (e.g. road, hospital and ecological network, etc.), or in a System of System (e.g. socio-technical urban service), there are critical elements that, beyond the intrinsic vulnerability, can be characterized by greater or lower vulnerability because of their physical, geographical, cyber or logical connections. To this aim, we propose in this study a comparative analysis between traditional reductionist approach and a new holistic approach to vulnerability assessment to natural hazards. The analysis considers a study case of a socio-economic complex system through an innovative approach based on the properties of graph G=(N,L). A graph consists of two sets N (nodes) and L (links): the nodes represent the single exposed elements (physical, social, environmental, etc.) to a hazard, while the links (or connections) represent the interaction between the elements. The final goal is to illustrate an application of this innovative approach of integrated collective vulnerability assessment.
Grothmann, Torsten; Petzold, Maximilian; Ndaki, Patrick; Kakembo, Vincent; Siebenhüner, Bernd; Kleyer, Michael; Yanda, Pius; Ndou, Naledzani
While most climate change vulnerability assessments focus on regional or city-levels, this paper studies villages and their different forms of vulnerability vis-à-vis climate change. In the African context, the village level proves to be central for land-use related decision-making given the traditional role of village communities. The paper analyses two different regions, namely the Mkomazi Water Basin in Tanzania and the Keiskamma River Catchment in South Africa. Due to the differing roles ...
Report #11-P-0597, September 9, 2011. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s directory service system authentication and authorization servers conducted in March 2011 identified authentication and authorization servers with numerous vulnerabilities.
Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin
Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km 2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization
Huusom, Henrik; Strange, Niels
The theoretical concept, "asset specificity," is applied to real data in the context of Danish nature conservation network planning in order to produce illustrative examples of an economic measure of the network's vulnerability to exogenous shocks to the species composition. Three different measures of asset specificity are quantified from the shadow value of eliminating a key species from the individual grid cells. This represents a novel approach and a different interpretation of the term, as it is conventionally used as a qualitative indicator in the transaction cost economics literature. Apart from supplementing existing cost measures with an indicator of risk associated with investments in protected areas, this study demonstrates how the estimation and interpretation of various asset specificity measures for geographical areas may qualify policy makers' choice of policy instrument in conservation planning. This differs from the more intuitive approach of basing policy instrument choice solely on the rarity of the species in a given area.
Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.
21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.
Shao, Huaiyong; Sun, Xiaofei; Wang, Haoxue; Zhang, Xiaoxue; Xiang, Zhiying; Tan, Rui; Chen, Xuanyi; Xian, Wei; Qi, Jiaguo
The Chinese government has conducted the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) across large portions of grasslands from western China since 2003. In order to explore and understand the impact in the grassland's eco-environment during the RGLGP, we utilized Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop a spatial assessment model to examine the ecological vulnerability of the grassland. Our results include five indications: (1) it is practical to apply the spatial PPM on ecological vulnerability assessment for the grassland. This methodology avoids creating an artificial hypothesis, thereby providing objective results that successfully execute a multi-index assessment process and analysis under non-linear systems in eco-environments; (2) the spatial PPM is not only capable of evaluating regional eco-environmental vulnerability in a quantitative way, but also can quantitatively demonstrate the degree of effect in each evaluation index for regional eco-environmental vulnerability; (3) the eco-environment of the Xianshui River Basin falls into the medium range level. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use cover and change (LUCC) crucially influence the Xianshui River Basin's eco-environmental vulnerability. Generally, in the Xianshui River Basin, regional eco-environmental conditions improved during 2000 and 2010. The RGLGP positively affected NDVI and LUCC structure, thereby promoting the enhancement of the regional eco-environment; (4) the Xianshui River Basin divides its ecological vulnerability across different levels; therefore our study investigates three ecological regions and proposes specific suggestions for each in order to assist in eco-environmental protection and rehabilitation; and lastly that (5) the spatial PPM established by this study has the potential to be applied on all types of grassland eco-environmental vulnerability assessments under the RGLGP and under the similar
Shao, Huaiyong, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Key Laboratory of Geoscience Spatial Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resources of China, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan (China); Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI (United States); Sun, Xiaofei; Wang, Haoxue; Zhang, Xiaoxue [Key Laboratory of Geoscience Spatial Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resources of China, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan (China); Xiang, Zhiying [School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, Zhejiang (China); Tan, Rui; Chen, Xuanyi [Key Laboratory of Geoscience Spatial Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resources of China, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan (China); Xian, Wei [College of Resources and Environment, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, Sichuan (China); Qi, Jiaguo [Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI (United States)
The Chinese government has conducted the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) across large portions of grasslands from western China since 2003. In order to explore and understand the impact in the grassland's eco-environment during the RGLGP, we utilized Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop a spatial assessment model to examine the ecological vulnerability of the grassland. Our results include five indications: (1) it is practical to apply the spatial PPM on ecological vulnerability assessment for the grassland. This methodology avoids creating an artificial hypothesis, thereby providing objective results that successfully execute a multi-index assessment process and analysis under non-linear systems in eco-environments; (2) the spatial PPM is not only capable of evaluating regional eco-environmental vulnerability in a quantitative way, but also can quantitatively demonstrate the degree of effect in each evaluation index for regional eco-environmental vulnerability; (3) the eco-environment of the Xianshui River Basin falls into the medium range level. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use cover and change (LUCC) crucially influence the Xianshui River Basin's eco-environmental vulnerability. Generally, in the Xianshui River Basin, regional eco-environmental conditions improved during 2000 and 2010. The RGLGP positively affected NDVI and LUCC structure, thereby promoting the enhancement of the regional eco-environment; (4) the Xianshui River Basin divides its ecological vulnerability across different levels; therefore our study investigates three ecological regions and proposes specific suggestions for each in order to assist in eco-environmental protection and rehabilitation; and lastly that (5) the spatial PPM established by this study has the potential to be applied on all types of grassland eco-environmental vulnerability assessments under the RGLGP and under the
Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.
A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability
Gunasekera, R.; Rosetto, T.; Tabuchi, S.; Suppasri, A.; Futami, T.; Scott, I.; Maegawa, H.
The infrequency, suddenness and violence tsunamis has led to a lack of knowledge on tsunami and lack of data available for the calibration of numerical models particularly in relation to tsunami damage. Therefore, there are very few tsunami structural vulnerability studies available. Of the available literature, most of these started after the disastrous 2004 Indian Ocean event. Most of fragility curves have been developed in some areas struck by the 2004 tsunami, which are very different in architecture and engineering respect to the US, Japanese or European ones. This review aims to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of current knowledge on tsunami fragility by critically assessing several fragility curves based on post tsunami damage surveys in Chile, Japan (including initial findings of the March 2011 event), Samoa, Sri Lanka and Thailand. It is observed that there is no consensus on how to derive tsunami fragility curves. Most of the examined relationships are seen to relate to residential buildings, and, due to the location of recent tsunami occurrences, they mostly represent non-engineered buildings (i.e. all use data from Thailand, Sri Lanka, Samoa, or Sumatra), which limits their usefulness. In the absence of a good understanding of tsunami actions on buildings most existing fragility relationships adopt inundation depth as the hazard parameter in the vulnerability function, which does not account for the other components of onshore flow contributing to tsunami loads on buildings, such as flow velocity.
Cizelj, Leon; Leskovar, Matjaz; Cepin, Marko; Mavko, Borut
The blast have in most cases not been assumed as design basis loads of nuclear power plant buildings and structures. Recent developments however stimulated a number of analyses quantifying the potential effect of such loads. An effort was therefore made by the authors to revisit simple and robust structural analysis methods and to propose their use in the vulnerability assessment of blast-loaded structures. The leading idea is to break the structure into a set of typical structural elements, for which the response is estimated by the use of slightly modified handbook formulas. The proposed method includes provisions to predict the inelastic response and failure. Simplicity and versatility of the method facilitate its use in structural reliability calculations. The most important aspects of the proposed method are presented along with illustrative sample applications demonstrating: - results comparable to full scale dynamic simulations using explicit finite element codes and - the performance of the method in screening the existing structures and providing the structural reliability information for the vulnerability analysis. (author)
Kanakoudis, Vasilis; Tsitsifli, Stavroula; Papadopoulou, Anastasia; Cencur Curk, Barbara; Karleusa, Barbara
Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.
Cizelj, Leon; Leskovar, Matjaz; Cepin, Marko; Mavko, Borut
The blast loads have in most cases not been assumed as design basis loads of nuclear power plant buildings and structures. Recent developments however stimulated a number of analyses quantifying the potential effects of such loads. An effort was therefore made by the authors to revisit simple and robust structural analysis methods and to propose their use in the vulnerability assessment of blast-loaded structures. The leading idea is to break the structure into a set of typical structural elements, for which the response is estimated by the use of slightly modified handbook formulas. The proposed method includes provisions to predict the inelastic response and failure. Simplicity and versatility of the method facilitate its use in structural reliability calculations. The most important aspects of the proposed method are presented along with illustrative sample applications demonstrating: ·results comparable to full scale dynamic simulations using explicit finite element codes and ·the performance of the method in screening the existing structures and providing the structural reliability information for the vulnerability analysis.
A Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (HRVA) is a mandated regulatory requirement in British Columbia that requires local authorities to prepare emergency plans that reflect the local authority's assessment of the relative risk of occurrence and the potential impact on people and property of the hazards, emergencies or disasters that could affect the jurisdictional area for which the local authority has responsibility. This report constituted an HRVA for the Regional District of Nanaimo, British Columbia. It presented the study scope and methodology and provided an overview of the Regional District of Nanaimo. This included information on the setting, demographics, and economy. Next, it discussed social vulnerability; critical response and recovery facilities; and critical infrastructure such as water, energy, telecommunications and transportation. A summary of the Regional District of Nanaimo's response capabilities that were considered when assessing the Regional District's overall risk to the hazards was also presented. Response capabilities were discussed with reference to fire and rescue; police; ambulance; and search and rescue. Emergency support and preparedness organizations were also identified. These included the Emergency Coordination Centre, environmental services, emergency social services, amateur radio and health authorities. Last, 33 hazards that could affect the Regional District of Nanaimo were identified and discussed. The study identified the following hazards as high risk: flooding; forest fires and wildland urban interface fires; and human diseases and pandemic. It was recommended that the advancement of business continuity planning in the Regional District of Nanaimo would help to reduce the impact of a possible human disease and pandemic risk outbreak affecting the population. 75 refs., 25 figs., 14 tabs., 2 appendices
Peng, Z W; Xu, T; He, Q H; Shi, C Z; Wei, Z; Miao, G D; Jing, J; Lim, K O; Zuo, X N; Chan, R C K
Aberrant functional connectivity within the default network is generally assumed to be involved in the pathophysiology of obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD); however, the genetic risk of default network connectivity in OCD remains largely unknown. Here, we systematically investigated default network connectivity in 15 OCD patients, 15 paired unaffected siblings and 28 healthy controls. We sought to examine the profiles of default network connectivity in OCD patients and their siblings, exploring the correlation between abnormal default network connectivity and genetic risk for this population. Compared with healthy controls, OCD patients exhibited reduced strength of default network functional connectivity with the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), and increased functional connectivity in the right inferior frontal lobe, insula, superior parietal cortex and superior temporal cortex, while their unaffected first-degree siblings only showed reduced local connectivity in the PCC. These findings suggest that the disruptions of default network functional connectivity might be associated with family history of OCD. The decreased default network connectivity in both OCD patients and their unaffected siblings may serve as a potential marker of OCD.
Full Text Available The analysis of tsunami catalogues and of data published on the NOAA web site pointed out that in the Mediterranean basin, from 2000 B.C. to present, about 480 tsunamis occurred, of which at least a third involved the Italian peninsula. Within this framework, a GIS-aided procedure that takes advantage of spatial analysis to apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment model of urban environments is presented, with the main purpose of assessing the vulnerability of wide areas at spatial resolution of the census district. The method was applied to the sector of Napoli city enclosed between Posillipo Hill and the Somma-Vesuvio volcano because of the high population rates (apex value of 5000 inh/km2 and potential occurrence of hazardous events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mass failures that can