Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks
Liu, S.
2016-01-01
In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of
Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik
2016-01-01
The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....
Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salim T. Yousif
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature. The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor affecting the output of the model. The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.
Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.
Patan, Krzysztof
2018-01-01
The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes
Fletcher, Robert J.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.
2011-01-01
Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.
Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes.
Fletcher, Robert J; Acevedo, Miguel A; Reichert, Brian E; Pias, Kyle E; Kitchens, Wiley M
2011-11-29
Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.
Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.
This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...
Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach
Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim
2017-04-01
Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.
Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction
James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun Yang
2011-01-01
Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ââ...
A Neural Network Model for Prediction of Sound Quality
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen,, Lars Bramsløw
An artificial neural network structure has been specified, implemented and optimized for the purpose of predicting the perceived sound quality for normal-hearing and hearing-impaired subjects. The network was implemented by means of commercially available software and optimized to predict results...... obtained in subjective sound quality rating experiments based on input data from an auditory model. Various types of input data and data representations from the auditory model were used as input data for the chosen network structure, which was a three-layer perceptron. This network was trained by means...... the physical signal parameters and the subjectively perceived sound quality. No simple objective-subjective relationship was evident from this analysis....
Modelling and predicting biogeographical patterns in river networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sabela Lois
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Statistical analysis and interpretation of biogeographical phenomena in rivers is now possible using a spatially explicit modelling framework, which has seen significant developments in the past decade. I used this approach to identify a spatial extent (geostatistical range in which the abundance of the parasitic freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera L. is spatially autocorrelated in river networks. I show that biomass and abundance of host fish are a likely explanation for the autocorrelation in mussel abundance within a 15-km spatial extent. The application of universal kriging with the empirical model enabled precise prediction of mussel abundance within segments of river networks, something that has the potential to inform conservation biogeography. Although I used a variety of modelling approaches in my thesis, I focus here on the details of this relatively new spatial stream network model, thus advancing the study of biogeographical patterns in river networks.
Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel
2005-01-01
An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches
Nonlinear signal processing using neural networks: Prediction and system modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lapedes, A.; Farber, R.
1987-06-01
The backpropagation learning algorithm for neural networks is developed into a formalism for nonlinear signal processing. We illustrate the method by selecting two common topics in signal processing, prediction and system modelling, and show that nonlinear applications can be handled extremely well by using neural networks. The formalism is a natural, nonlinear extension of the linear Least Mean Squares algorithm commonly used in adaptive signal processing. Simulations are presented that document the additional performance achieved by using nonlinear neural networks. First, we demonstrate that the formalism may be used to predict points in a highly chaotic time series with orders of magnitude increase in accuracy over conventional methods including the Linear Predictive Method and the Gabor-Volterra-Weiner Polynomial Method. Deterministic chaos is thought to be involved in many physical situations including the onset of turbulence in fluids, chemical reactions and plasma physics. Secondly, we demonstrate the use of the formalism in nonlinear system modelling by providing a graphic example in which it is clear that the neural network has accurately modelled the nonlinear transfer function. It is interesting to note that the formalism provides explicit, analytic, global, approximations to the nonlinear maps underlying the various time series. Furthermore, the neural net seems to be extremely parsimonious in its requirements for data points from the time series. We show that the neural net is able to perform well because it globally approximates the relevant maps by performing a kind of generalized mode decomposition of the maps. 24 refs., 13 figs.
Hand Posture Prediction Using Neural Networks within a Biomechanical Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marta C. Mora
2012-10-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in the framework of a biomechanical hand model for grasping. ANNs enhance the model capabilities as they substitute estimated data for the experimental inputs required by the grasping algorithm used. These inputs are the tentative grasping posture and the most open posture during grasping. As a consequence, more realistic grasping postures are predicted by the grasping algorithm, along with the contact information required by the dynamic biomechanical model (contact points and normals. Several neural network architectures are tested and compared in terms of prediction errors, leading to encouraging results. The performance of the overall proposal is also shown through simulation, where a grasping experiment is replicated and compared to the real grasping data collected by a data glove device.
Improving Earth/Prediction Models to Improve Network Processing
Wagner, G. S.
2017-12-01
The United States Atomic Energy Detection System (USAEDS) primaryseismic network consists of a relatively small number of arrays andthree-component stations. The relatively small number of stationsin the USAEDS primary network make it both necessary and feasibleto optimize both station and network processing.Station processing improvements include detector tuning effortsthat use Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves to helpjudiciously set acceptable Type 1 (false) vs. Type 2 (miss) errorrates. Other station processing improvements include the use ofempirical/historical observations and continuous background noisemeasurements to compute time-varying, maximum likelihood probabilityof detection thresholds.The USAEDS network processing software makes extensive use of theazimuth and slowness information provided by frequency-wavenumberanalysis at array sites, and polarization analysis at three-componentsites. Most of the improvements in USAEDS network processing aredue to improvements in the models used to predict azimuth, slowness,and probability of detection. Kriged travel-time, azimuth andslowness corrections-and associated uncertainties-are computedusing a ground truth database. Improvements in station processingand the use of improved models for azimuth, slowness, and probabilityof detection have led to significant improvements in USADES networkprocessing.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haibo Zhang
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The security incidents ion networks are sudden and uncertain, it is very hard to precisely predict the network security situation by traditional methods. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the network security situation, we build a network security situation prediction model based on Wavelet Neural Network (WNN with optimized parameters by the Improved Niche Genetic Algorithm (INGA. The proposed model adopts WNN which has strong nonlinear ability and fault-tolerance performance. Also, the parameters for WNN are optimized through the adaptive genetic algorithm (GA so that WNN searches more effectively. Considering the problem that the adaptive GA converges slowly and easily turns to the premature problem, we introduce a novel niche technology with a dynamic fuzzy clustering and elimination mechanism to solve the premature convergence of the GA. Our final simulation results show that the proposed INGA-WNN prediction model is more reliable and effective, and it achieves faster convergence-speed and higher prediction accuracy than the Genetic Algorithm-Wavelet Neural Network (GA-WNN, Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN and WNN.
Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei-Chin Lin
2009-04-01
Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.
Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network
Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.
2018-03-01
This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude ( M w), closest distance to rupture plane ( R rup), shear wave velocity in the region ( V s30) and focal mechanism ( F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.
Adaptive model predictive process control using neural networks
Buescher, K.L.; Baum, C.C.; Jones, R.D.
1997-08-19
A control system for controlling the output of at least one plant process output parameter is implemented by adaptive model predictive control using a neural network. An improved method and apparatus provides for sampling plant output and control input at a first sampling rate to provide control inputs at the fast rate. The MPC system is, however, provided with a network state vector that is constructed at a second, slower rate so that the input control values used by the MPC system are averaged over a gapped time period. Another improvement is a provision for on-line training that may include difference training, curvature training, and basis center adjustment to maintain the weights and basis centers of the neural in an updated state that can follow changes in the plant operation apart from initial off-line training data. 46 figs.
Modeling and Control of CSTR using Model based Neural Network Predictive Control
Shrivastava, Piyush
2012-01-01
This paper presents a predictive control strategy based on neural network model of the plant is applied to Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR). This system is a highly nonlinear process; therefore, a nonlinear predictive method, e.g., neural network predictive control, can be a better match to govern the system dynamics. In the paper, the NN model and the way in which it can be used to predict the behavior of the CSTR process over a certain prediction horizon are described, and some commen...
Prediction of Multiphase Flow Properties from Network Models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A uniform pore size structure resulted in more favorable two-phase relative permeability distribution, with the relative permeability depending greatly on the phase saturations. Capillary pressure, on the other hand, was found to increase with image resolution. Keywords: Network Model, Computer Tomography, Relative ...
Robust recurrent neural network modeling for software fault detection and correction prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu, Q.P.; Xie, M.; Ng, S.H.; Levitin, G.
2007-01-01
Software fault detection and correction processes are related although different, and they should be studied together. A practical approach is to apply software reliability growth models to model fault detection, and fault correction process is assumed to be a delayed process. On the other hand, the artificial neural networks model, as a data-driven approach, tries to model these two processes together with no assumptions. Specifically, feedforward backpropagation networks have shown their advantages over analytical models in fault number predictions. In this paper, the following approach is explored. First, recurrent neural networks are applied to model these two processes together. Within this framework, a systematic networks configuration approach is developed with genetic algorithm according to the prediction performance. In order to provide robust predictions, an extra factor characterizing the dispersion of prediction repetitions is incorporated into the performance function. Comparisons with feedforward neural networks and analytical models are developed with respect to a real data set
Computationally efficient model predictive control algorithms a neural network approach
Ławryńczuk, Maciej
2014-01-01
This book thoroughly discusses computationally efficient (suboptimal) Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques based on neural models. The subjects treated include: · A few types of suboptimal MPC algorithms in which a linear approximation of the model or of the predicted trajectory is successively calculated on-line and used for prediction. · Implementation details of the MPC algorithms for feedforward perceptron neural models, neural Hammerstein models, neural Wiener models and state-space neural models. · The MPC algorithms based on neural multi-models (inspired by the idea of predictive control). · The MPC algorithms with neural approximation with no on-line linearization. · The MPC algorithms with guaranteed stability and robustness. · Cooperation between the MPC algorithms and set-point optimization. Thanks to linearization (or neural approximation), the presented suboptimal algorithms do not require d...
Modelling and prediction for chaotic fir laser attractor using rational function neural network.
Cho, S
2001-02-01
Many real-world systems such as irregular ECG signal, volatility of currency exchange rate and heated fluid reaction exhibit highly complex nonlinear characteristic known as chaos. These chaotic systems cannot be retreated satisfactorily using linear system theory due to its high dimensionality and irregularity. This research focuses on prediction and modelling of chaotic FIR (Far InfraRed) laser system for which the underlying equations are not given. This paper proposed a method for prediction and modelling a chaotic FIR laser time series using rational function neural network. Three network architectures, TDNN (Time Delayed Neural Network), RBF (radial basis function) network and the RF (rational function) network, are also presented. Comparisons between these networks performance show the improvements introduced by the RF network in terms of a decrement in network complexity and better ability of predictability.
Modeling and Model Predictive Power and Rate Control of Wireless Communication Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cunwu Han
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A novel power and rate control system model for wireless communication networks is presented, which includes uncertainties, input constraints, and time-varying delays in both state and control input. A robust delay-dependent model predictive power and rate control method is proposed, and the state feedback control law is obtained by solving an optimization problem that is derived by using linear matrix inequality (LMI techniques. Simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using Artificial Neural Networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kavaklioglu, Kadir; Ozturk, Harun Kemal; Canyurt, Olcay Ersel; Ceylan, Halim
2009-01-01
Artificial Neural Networks are proposed to model and predict electricity consumption of Turkey. Multi layer perceptron with backpropagation training algorithm is used as the neural network topology. Tangent-sigmoid and pure-linear transfer functions are selected in the hidden and output layer processing elements, respectively. These input-output network models are a result of relationships that exist among electricity consumption and several other socioeconomic variables. Electricity consumption is modeled as a function of economic indicators such as population, gross national product, imports and exports. It is also modeled using export-import ratio and time input only. Performance comparison among different models is made based on absolute and percentage mean square error. Electricity consumption of Turkey is predicted until 2027 using data from 1975 to 2006 along with other economic indicators. The results show that electricity consumption can be modeled using Artificial Neural Networks, and the models can be used to predict future electricity consumption. (author)
Sparse Power-Law Network Model for Reliable Statistical Predictions Based on Sampled Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexander P. Kartun-Giles
2018-04-01
Full Text Available A projective network model is a model that enables predictions to be made based on a subsample of the network data, with the predictions remaining unchanged if a larger sample is taken into consideration. An exchangeable model is a model that does not depend on the order in which nodes are sampled. Despite a large variety of non-equilibrium (growing and equilibrium (static sparse complex network models that are widely used in network science, how to reconcile sparseness (constant average degree with the desired statistical properties of projectivity and exchangeability is currently an outstanding scientific problem. Here we propose a network process with hidden variables which is projective and can generate sparse power-law networks. Despite the model not being exchangeable, it can be closely related to exchangeable uncorrelated networks as indicated by its information theory characterization and its network entropy. The use of the proposed network process as a null model is here tested on real data, indicating that the model offers a promising avenue for statistical network modelling.
Kaewprag, Pacharmon; Newton, Cheryl; Vermillion, Brenda; Hyun, Sookyung; Huang, Kun; Machiraju, Raghu
2017-07-05
We develop predictive models enabling clinicians to better understand and explore patient clinical data along with risk factors for pressure ulcers in intensive care unit patients from electronic health record data. Identifying accurate risk factors of pressure ulcers is essential to determining appropriate prevention strategies; in this work we examine medication, diagnosis, and traditional Braden pressure ulcer assessment scale measurements as patient features. In order to predict pressure ulcer incidence and better understand the structure of related risk factors, we construct Bayesian networks from patient features. Bayesian network nodes (features) and edges (conditional dependencies) are simplified with statistical network techniques. Upon reviewing a network visualization of our model, our clinician collaborators were able to identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. We present a three-stage framework for predictive analysis of patient clinical data: 1) Developing electronic health record feature extraction functions with assistance of clinicians, 2) simplifying features, and 3) building Bayesian network predictive models. We evaluate all combinations of Bayesian network models from different search algorithms, scoring functions, prior structure initializations, and sets of features. From the EHRs of 7,717 ICU patients, we construct Bayesian network predictive models from 86 medication, diagnosis, and Braden scale features. Our model not only identifies known and suspected high PU risk factors, but also substantially increases sensitivity of the prediction - nearly three times higher comparing to logistical regression models - without sacrificing the overall accuracy. We visualize a representative model with which our clinician collaborators identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. Given the strong adverse effect of pressure ulcers
Functional brain networks and prediction models in childhood epilepsy
Diessen, E.G.A.L. van
2015-01-01
Modern network science revolutionized the field of neuroscience and revealed significant insights into the organization of the brain. Throughout this thesis we applied a network analytical approach to improve our understanding of the pathological mechanisms underlying focal epilepsy. The presented
Maximum solid concentrations of coal water slurries predicted by neural network models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cheng, Jun; Li, Yanchang; Zhou, Junhu; Liu, Jianzhong; Cen, Kefa
2010-12-15
The nonlinear back-propagation (BP) neural network models were developed to predict the maximum solid concentration of coal water slurry (CWS) which is a substitute for oil fuel, based on physicochemical properties of 37 typical Chinese coals. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used to train five BP neural network models with different input factors. The data pretreatment method, learning rate and hidden neuron number were optimized by training models. It is found that the Hardgrove grindability index (HGI), moisture and coalification degree of parent coal are 3 indispensable factors for the prediction of CWS maximum solid concentration. Each BP neural network model gives a more accurate prediction result than the traditional polynomial regression equation. The BP neural network model with 3 input factors of HGI, moisture and oxygen/carbon ratio gives the smallest mean absolute error of 0.40%, which is much lower than that of 1.15% given by the traditional polynomial regression equation. (author)
Huang, Darong; Bai, Xing-Rong
Based on wavelet transform and neural network theory, a traffic-flow prediction model, which was used in optimal control of Intelligent Traffic system, is constructed. First of all, we have extracted the scale coefficient and wavelet coefficient from the online measured raw data of traffic flow via wavelet transform; Secondly, an Artificial Neural Network model of Traffic-flow Prediction was constructed and trained using the coefficient sequences as inputs and raw data as outputs; Simultaneous, we have designed the running principium of the optimal control system of traffic-flow Forecasting model, the network topological structure and the data transmitted model; Finally, a simulated example has shown that the technique is effectively and exactly. The theoretical results indicated that the wavelet neural network prediction model and algorithms have a broad prospect for practical application.
Yasami, Yasser; Safaei, Farshad
2018-02-01
The traditional complex network theory is particularly focused on network models in which all network constituents are dealt with equivalently, while fail to consider the supplementary information related to the dynamic properties of the network interactions. This is a main constraint leading to incorrect descriptions of some real-world phenomena or incomplete capturing the details of certain real-life problems. To cope with the problem, this paper addresses the multilayer aspects of dynamic complex networks by analyzing the properties of intrinsically multilayered co-authorship networks, DBLP and Astro Physics, and presenting a novel multilayer model of dynamic complex networks. The model examines the layers evolution (layers birth/death process and lifetime) throughout the network evolution. Particularly, this paper models the evolution of each node's membership in different layers by an Infinite Factorial Hidden Markov Model considering feature cascade, and thereby formulates the link generation process for intra-layer and inter-layer links. Although adjacency matrixes are useful to describe the traditional single-layer networks, such a representation is not sufficient to describe and analyze the multilayer dynamic networks. This paper also extends a generalized mathematical infrastructure to address the problems issued by multilayer complex networks. The model inference is performed using some Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies, given synthetic and real complex networks data. Experimental results indicate a tremendous improvement in the performance of the proposed multilayer model in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, F1-score, Matthews correlation coefficient, and accuracy for two important applications of missing link prediction and future link forecasting. The experimental results also indicate the strong predictivepower of the proposed model for the application of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu, Bo; Dan, Han-Cheng; Li, Liang
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Pavement temperature prediction model is presented with improved BP neural network. • Dynamic and static methods are presented to predict pavement temperature. • Pavement temperature can be excellently predicted in next 3 h. - Abstract: Ice cover on pavement threatens traffic safety, and pavement temperature is the main factor used to determine whether the wet pavement is icy or not. In this paper, a temperature prediction model of the pavement in winter is established by introducing an improved Back Propagation (BP) neural network model. Before the application of the BP neural network model, many efforts were made to eliminate chaos and determine the regularity of temperature on the pavement surface (e.g., analyze the regularity of diurnal and monthly variations of pavement temperature). New dynamic and static prediction methods are presented by improving the algorithms to intelligently overcome the prediction inaccuracy at the change point of daily temperature. Furthermore, some scenarios have been compared for different dates and road sections to verify the reliability of the prediction model. According to the analysis results, the daily pavement temperatures can be accurately predicted for the next 3 h from the time of prediction by combining the dynamic and static prediction methods. The presented method in this paper can provide technical references for temperature prediction of the pavement and the development of an early-warning system for icy pavements in cold regions.
Predictive Behavior of a Computational Foot/Ankle Model through Artificial Neural Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ruchi D. Chande
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Computational models are useful tools to study the biomechanics of human joints. Their predictive performance is heavily dependent on bony anatomy and soft tissue properties. Imaging data provides anatomical requirements while approximate tissue properties are implemented from literature data, when available. We sought to improve the predictive capability of a computational foot/ankle model by optimizing its ligament stiffness inputs using feedforward and radial basis function neural networks. While the former demonstrated better performance than the latter per mean square error, both networks provided reasonable stiffness predictions for implementation into the computational model.
Predictive Behavior of a Computational Foot/Ankle Model through Artificial Neural Networks.
Chande, Ruchi D; Hargraves, Rosalyn Hobson; Ortiz-Robinson, Norma; Wayne, Jennifer S
2017-01-01
Computational models are useful tools to study the biomechanics of human joints. Their predictive performance is heavily dependent on bony anatomy and soft tissue properties. Imaging data provides anatomical requirements while approximate tissue properties are implemented from literature data, when available. We sought to improve the predictive capability of a computational foot/ankle model by optimizing its ligament stiffness inputs using feedforward and radial basis function neural networks. While the former demonstrated better performance than the latter per mean square error, both networks provided reasonable stiffness predictions for implementation into the computational model.
Coupled Model of Artificial Neural Network and Grey Model for Tendency Prediction of Labor Turnover
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yueru Ma
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The tendency of labor turnover in the Chinese enterprise shows the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations and irregular distribution of various factors, especially the Chinese traditional social and cultural characteristics. In this paper, we present a coupled model for the tendency prediction of labor turnover. In the model, a time series of tendency prediction of labor turnover was expressed as trend item and its random item. Trend item of tendency prediction of labor turnover is predicted using Grey theory. Random item of trend item is calculated by artificial neural network model (ANN. A case study is presented by the data of 24 months in a Chinese matured enterprise. The model uses the advantages of “accumulative generation” of a Grey prediction method, which weakens the original sequence of random disturbance factors and increases the regularity of data. It also takes full advantage of the ANN model approximation performance, which has a capacity to solve economic problems rapidly, describes the nonlinear relationship easily, and avoids the defects of Grey theory.
Artificial neural networks based predictive model for worker ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... meet highly dynamic production conditions in terms of demand, processing times, ... network has been formulated on worker assignment for VCMS under dual ... to generate simulated datasets that drive the training process of proposed ANN ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Scott B Hu
Full Text Available Clinical deterioration (ICU transfer and cardiac arrest occurs during approximately 5-10% of hospital admissions. Existing prediction models have a high false positive rate, leading to multiple false alarms and alarm fatigue. We used routine vital signs and laboratory values obtained from the electronic medical record (EMR along with a machine learning algorithm called a neural network to develop a prediction model that would increase the predictive accuracy and decrease false alarm rates.Retrospective cohort study.The hematologic malignancy unit in an academic medical center in the United States.Adult patients admitted to the hematologic malignancy unit from 2009 to 2010.None.Vital signs and laboratory values were obtained from the electronic medical record system and then used as predictors (features. A neural network was used to build a model to predict clinical deterioration events (ICU transfer and cardiac arrest. The performance of the neural network model was compared to the VitalPac Early Warning Score (ViEWS. Five hundred sixty five consecutive total admissions were available with 43 admissions resulting in clinical deterioration. Using simulation, the neural network outperformed the ViEWS model with a positive predictive value of 82% compared to 24%, respectively.We developed and tested a neural network-based prediction model for clinical deterioration in patients hospitalized in the hematologic malignancy unit. Our neural network model outperformed an existing model, substantially increasing the positive predictive value, allowing the clinician to be confident in the alarm raised. This system can be readily implemented in a real-time fashion in existing EMR systems.
Video Quality Prediction Models Based on Video Content Dynamics for H.264 Video over UMTS Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asiya Khan
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present video quality prediction models for objective non-intrusive, prediction of H.264 encoded video for all content types combining parameters both in the physical and application layer over Universal Mobile Telecommunication Systems (UMTS networks. In order to characterize the Quality of Service (QoS level, a learning model based on Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS and a second model based on non-linear regression analysis is proposed to predict the video quality in terms of the Mean Opinion Score (MOS. The objective of the paper is two-fold. First, to find the impact of QoS parameters on end-to-end video quality for H.264 encoded video. Second, to develop learning models based on ANFIS and non-linear regression analysis to predict video quality over UMTS networks by considering the impact of radio link loss models. The loss models considered are 2-state Markov models. Both the models are trained with a combination of physical and application layer parameters and validated with unseen dataset. Preliminary results show that good prediction accuracy was obtained from both the models. The work should help in the development of a reference-free video prediction model and QoS control methods for video over UMTS networks.
Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models
Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd
2011-01-01
Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ZHANG Yongzhi
2016-10-01
Full Text Available A dynamic fuzzy RBF neural network model was built to predict the mechanical properties of welded joints, and the purpose of the model was to overcome the shortcomings of static neural networks including structural identification, dynamic sample training and learning algorithm. The structure and parameters of the model are no longer head of default, dynamic adaptive adjustment in the training, suitable for dynamic sample data for learning, learning algorithm introduces hierarchical learning and fuzzy rule pruning strategy, to accelerate the training speed of model and make the model more compact. Simulation of the model was carried out by using three kinds of thickness and different process TC4 titanium alloy TIG welding test data. The results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy, which is suitable for predicting the mechanical properties of welded joints, and has opened up a new way for the on-line control of the welding process.
Neural network-based nonlinear model predictive control vs. linear quadratic gaussian control
Cho, C.; Vance, R.; Mardi, N.; Qian, Z.; Prisbrey, K.
1997-01-01
One problem with the application of neural networks to the multivariable control of mineral and extractive processes is determining whether and how to use them. The objective of this investigation was to compare neural network control to more conventional strategies and to determine if there are any advantages in using neural network control in terms of set-point tracking, rise time, settling time, disturbance rejection and other criteria. The procedure involved developing neural network controllers using both historical plant data and simulation models. Various control patterns were tried, including both inverse and direct neural network plant models. These were compared to state space controllers that are, by nature, linear. For grinding and leaching circuits, a nonlinear neural network-based model predictive control strategy was superior to a state space-based linear quadratic gaussian controller. The investigation pointed out the importance of incorporating state space into neural networks by making them recurrent, i.e., feeding certain output state variables into input nodes in the neural network. It was concluded that neural network controllers can have better disturbance rejection, set-point tracking, rise time, settling time and lower set-point overshoot, and it was also concluded that neural network controllers can be more reliable and easy to implement in complex, multivariable plants.
A Network-Based Approach to Modeling and Predicting Product Coconsideration Relations
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Zhenghui Sha
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Understanding customer preferences in consideration decisions is critical to choice modeling in engineering design. While existing literature has shown that the exogenous effects (e.g., product and customer attributes are deciding factors in customers’ consideration decisions, it is not clear how the endogenous effects (e.g., the intercompetition among products would influence such decisions. This paper presents a network-based approach based on Exponential Random Graph Models to study customers’ consideration behaviors according to engineering design. Our proposed approach is capable of modeling the endogenous effects among products through various network structures (e.g., stars and triangles besides the exogenous effects and predicting whether two products would be conisdered together. To assess the proposed model, we compare it against the dyadic network model that only considers exogenous effects. Using buyer survey data from the China automarket in 2013 and 2014, we evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the two models. The results show that our model has a better fit and predictive accuracy than the dyadic network model. This underscores the importance of the endogenous effects on customers’ consideration decisions. The insights gained from this research help explain how endogenous effects interact with exogeous effects in affecting customers’ decision-making.
Predicting commuter flows in spatial networks using a radiation model based on temporal ranges
Ren, Yihui; Ercsey-Ravasz, Mária; Wang, Pu; González, Marta C.; Toroczkai, Zoltán
2014-11-01
Understanding network flows such as commuter traffic in large transportation networks is an ongoing challenge due to the complex nature of the transportation infrastructure and human mobility. Here we show a first-principles based method for traffic prediction using a cost-based generalization of the radiation model for human mobility, coupled with a cost-minimizing algorithm for efficient distribution of the mobility fluxes through the network. Using US census and highway traffic data, we show that traffic can efficiently and accurately be computed from a range-limited, network betweenness type calculation. The model based on travel time costs captures the log-normal distribution of the traffic and attains a high Pearson correlation coefficient (0.75) when compared with real traffic. Because of its principled nature, this method can inform many applications related to human mobility driven flows in spatial networks, ranging from transportation, through urban planning to mitigation of the effects of catastrophic events.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ma, Denglong [Fuli School of Food Equipment Engineering and Science, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China); Zhang, Zaoxiao, E-mail: zhangzx@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Multiphase Flow in Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China); School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China)
2016-07-05
Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma, Denglong; Zhang, Zaoxiao
2016-01-01
Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.
Bolanča, Tomislav; Marinović, Slavica; Ukić, Sime; Jukić, Ante; Rukavina, Vinko
2012-06-01
This paper describes development of artificial neural network models which can be used to correlate and predict diesel fuel properties from several FTIR-ATR absorbances and Raman intensities as input variables. Multilayer feed forward and radial basis function neural networks have been used to rapid and simultaneous prediction of cetane number, cetane index, density, viscosity, distillation temperatures at 10% (T10), 50% (T50) and 90% (T90) recovery, contents of total aromatics and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons of commercial diesel fuels. In this study two-phase training procedures for multilayer feed forward networks were applied. While first phase training algorithm was constantly the back propagation one, two second phase training algorithms were varied and compared, namely: conjugate gradient and quasi Newton. In case of radial basis function network, radial layer was trained using K-means radial assignment algorithm and three different radial spread algorithms: explicit, isotropic and K-nearest neighbour. The number of hidden layer neurons and experimental data points used for the training set have been optimized for both neural networks in order to insure good predictive ability by reducing unnecessary experimental work. This work shows that developed artificial neural network models can determine main properties of diesel fuels simultaneously based on a single and fast IR or Raman measurement.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dr. Kamal Mohammed Alhendawi
2018-02-01
Full Text Available The information systems (IS assessment studies have still used the commonly traditional tools such as questionnaires in evaluating the dependent variables and specially effectiveness of systems. Artificial neural networks have been recently accepted as an effective alternative tool for modeling the complicated systems and widely used for forecasting. A very few is known about the employment of Artificial Neural Network (ANN in the prediction IS effectiveness. For this reason, this study is considered as one of the fewest studies to investigate the efficiency and capability of using ANN for forecasting the user perceptions towards IS effectiveness where MATLAB is utilized for building and training the neural network model. A dataset of 175 subjects collected from international organization are utilized for ANN learning where each subject consists of 6 features (5 quality factors as inputs and one Boolean output. A percentage of 75% o subjects are used in the training phase. The results indicate an evidence on the ANN models has a reasonable accuracy in forecasting the IS effectiveness. For prediction, ANN with PURELIN (ANNP and ANN with TANSIG (ANNTS transfer functions are used. It is found that both two models have a reasonable prediction, however, the accuracy of ANNTS model is better than ANNP model (88.6% and 70.4% respectively. As the study proposes a new model for predicting IS dependent variables, it could save the considerably high cost that might be spent in sample data collection in the quantitative studies in the fields science, management, education, arts and others.
Nonparametric Tree-Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network.
He, Jichao; Wanik, David W; Hartman, Brian M; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N; Astitha, Marina; Frediani, Maria E B
2017-03-01
This article compares two nonparametric tree-based models, quantile regression forests (QRF) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), for predicting storm outages on an electric distribution network in Connecticut, USA. We evaluated point estimates and prediction intervals of outage predictions for both models using high-resolution weather, infrastructure, and land use data for 89 storm events (including hurricanes, blizzards, and thunderstorms). We found that spatially BART predicted more accurate point estimates than QRF. However, QRF produced better prediction intervals for high spatial resolutions (2-km grid cells and towns), while BART predictions aggregated to coarser resolutions (divisions and service territory) more effectively. We also found that the predictive accuracy was dependent on the season (e.g., tree-leaf condition, storm characteristics), and that the predictions were most accurate for winter storms. Given the merits of each individual model, we suggest that BART and QRF be implemented together to show the complete picture of a storm's potential impact on the electric distribution network, which would allow for a utility to make better decisions about allocating prestorm resources. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
Vickram, A S; Kamini, A Rao; Das, Raja; Pathy, M Ramesh; Parameswari, R; Archana, K; Sridharan, T B
2016-08-01
Seminal fluid is the secretion from many glands comprised of several organic and inorganic compounds including free amino acids, proteins, fructose, glucosidase, zinc, and other scavenging elements like Mg(2+), Ca(2+), K(+), and Na(+). Therefore, in the view of development of novel approaches and proper diagnosis to male infertility, overall understanding of the biochemical and molecular composition and its role in regulation of sperm quality is highly desirable. Perhaps this can be achieved through artificial intelligence. This study was aimed to elucidate and predict various biochemical markers present in human seminal plasma with three different neural network models. A total of 177 semen samples were collected for this research (both fertile and infertile samples) and immediately processed to prepare a semen analysis report, based on the protocol of the World Health Organization (WHO [2010]). The semen samples were then categorized into oligoasthenospermia (n=35), asthenospermia (n=35), azoospermia (n=22), normospermia (n=34), oligospermia (n=34), and control (n=17). The major biochemical parameters like total protein content, fructose, glucosidase, and zinc content were elucidated by standard protocols. All the biochemical markers were predicted by using three different artificial neural network (ANN) models with semen parameters as inputs. Of the three models, the back propagation neural network model (BPNN) yielded the best results with mean absolute error 0.025, -0.080, 0.166, and -0.057 for protein, fructose, glucosidase, and zinc, respectively. This suggests that BPNN can be used to predict biochemical parameters for the proper diagnosis of male infertility in assisted reproductive technology (ART) centres. AAS: absorption spectroscopy; AI: artificial intelligence; ANN: artificial neural networks; ART: assisted reproductive technology; BPNN: back propagation neural network model; DT: decision tress; MLP: multilayer perceptron; PESA: percutaneous
Zeng, Fangfang; Li, Zhongtao; Yu, Xiaoling; Zhou, Linuo
2013-01-01
Background This study aimed to develop the artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariable logistic regression (LR) analyses for prediction modeling of cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population, and compare the prediction models using the two approaches. Methods and Materials We analyzed a previous dataset based on a Chinese population sample consisting of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN and LR analysis, and were tested in the validation set. Performances of these prediction models were then compared. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with the prevalence of CA dysfunction (P<0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.758 (95% CI 0.724–0.793) for LR and 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for ANN analysis, but noninferiority result was found (P<0.001). The similar results were found in comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values in the prediction models between the LR and ANN analyses. Conclusion The prediction models for CA dysfunction were developed using ANN and LR. ANN and LR are two effective tools for developing prediction models based on our dataset. PMID:23940593
Artificial neural network modeling of jatropha oil fueled diesel engine for emission predictions
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Ganapathy Thirunavukkarasu
2009-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with artificial neural network modeling of diesel engine fueled with jatropha oil to predict the unburned hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions. The experimental data from the literature have been used as the data base for the proposed neural network model development. For training the networks, the injection timing, injector opening pressure, plunger diameter, and engine load are used as the input layer. The outputs are hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions. The feed forward back propagation learning algorithms with two hidden layers are used in the networks. For each output a different network is developed with required topology. The artificial neural network models for hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions gave R2 values of 0.9976, 0.9976, and 0.9984 and mean percent errors of smaller than 2.7603, 4.9524, and 3.1136, respectively, for training data sets, while the R2 values of 0.9904, 0.9904, and 0.9942, and mean percent errors of smaller than 6.5557, 6.1072, and 4.4682, respectively, for testing data sets. The best linear fit of regression to the artificial neural network models of hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions gave the correlation coefficient values of 0.98, 0.995, and 0.997, respectively.
Modeling infection transmission in primate networks to predict centrality-based risk.
Romano, Valéria; Duboscq, Julie; Sarabian, Cécile; Thomas, Elodie; Sueur, Cédric; MacIntosh, Andrew J J
2016-07-01
Social structure can theoretically regulate disease risk by mediating exposure to pathogens via social proximity and contact. Investigating the role of central individuals within a network may help predict infectious agent transmission as well as implement disease control strategies, but little is known about such dynamics in real primate networks. We combined social network analysis and a modeling approach to better understand transmission of a theoretical infectious agent in wild Japanese macaques, highly social animals which form extended but highly differentiated social networks. We collected focal data from adult females living on the islands of Koshima and Yakushima, Japan. Individual identities as well as grooming networks were included in a Markov graph-based simulation. In this model, the probability that an individual will transmit an infectious agent depends on the strength of its relationships with other group members. Similarly, its probability of being infected depends on its relationships with already infected group members. We correlated: (i) the percentage of subjects infected during a latency-constrained epidemic; (ii) the mean latency to complete transmission; (iii) the probability that an individual is infected first among all group members; and (iv) each individual's mean rank in the chain of transmission with different individual network centralities (eigenvector, strength, betweenness). Our results support the hypothesis that more central individuals transmit infections in a shorter amount of time and to more subjects but also become infected more quickly than less central individuals. However, we also observed that the spread of infectious agents on the Yakushima network did not always differ from expectations of spread on random networks. Generalizations about the importance of observed social networks in pathogen flow should thus be made with caution, since individual characteristics in some real world networks appear less relevant than
Prediction of energy demands using neural network with model identification by global optimization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yokoyama, Ryohei; Wakui, Tetsuya; Satake, Ryoichi [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Naka-ku, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531 (Japan)
2009-02-15
To operate energy supply plants properly from the viewpoints of stable energy supply, and energy and cost savings, it is important to predict energy demands accurately as basic conditions. Several methods of predicting energy demands have been proposed, and one of them is to use neural networks. Although local optimization methods such as gradient ones have conventionally been adopted in the back propagation procedure to identify the values of model parameters, they have the significant drawback that they can derive only local optimal solutions. In this paper, a global optimization method called ''Modal Trimming Method'' proposed for non-linear programming problems is adopted to identify the values of model parameters. In addition, the trend and periodic change are first removed from time series data on energy demand, and the converted data is used as the main input to a neural network. Furthermore, predicted values of air temperature and relative humidity are considered as additional inputs to the neural network, and their effect on the prediction of energy demand is investigated. This approach is applied to the prediction of the cooling demand in a building used for a bench mark test of a variety of prediction methods, and its validity and effectiveness are clarified. (author)
Artificial neural network models for prediction of intestinal permeability of oligopeptides
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Kim Min-Kook
2007-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Oral delivery is a highly desirable property for candidate drugs under development. Computational modeling could provide a quick and inexpensive way to assess the intestinal permeability of a molecule. Although there have been several studies aimed at predicting the intestinal absorption of chemical compounds, there have been no attempts to predict intestinal permeability on the basis of peptide sequence information. To develop models for predicting the intestinal permeability of peptides, we adopted an artificial neural network as a machine-learning algorithm. The positive control data consisted of intestinal barrier-permeable peptides obtained by the peroral phage display technique, and the negative control data were prepared from random sequences. Results The capacity of our models to make appropriate predictions was validated by statistical indicators including sensitivity, specificity, enrichment curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (the ROC score. The training and test set statistics indicated that our models were of strikingly good quality and could discriminate between permeable and random sequences with a high level of confidence. Conclusion We developed artificial neural network models to predict the intestinal permeabilities of oligopeptides on the basis of peptide sequence information. Both binary and VHSE (principal components score Vectors of Hydrophobic, Steric and Electronic properties descriptors produced statistically significant training models; the models with simple neural network architectures showed slightly greater predictive power than those with complex ones. We anticipate that our models will be applicable to the selection of intestinal barrier-permeable peptides for generating peptide drugs or peptidomimetics.
2013-01-01
Background The present study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population. Methods We analyzed a previous dataset based on a population sample consisted of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN analysis. Performances of these prediction models were evaluated in the validation set. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with CA dysfunction (P < 0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for prediction model developed using ANN analysis. The mean sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were similar in the prediction models was 0.751, 0.665, 0.330 and 0.924, respectively. All HL statistics were less than 15.0. Conclusion ANN is an effective tool for developing prediction models with high value for predicting CA dysfunction among the general population. PMID:23902963
Traffic Flow Prediction Model for Large-Scale Road Network Based on Cloud Computing
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Zhaosheng Yang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available To increase the efficiency and precision of large-scale road network traffic flow prediction, a genetic algorithm-support vector machine (GA-SVM model based on cloud computing is proposed in this paper, which is based on the analysis of the characteristics and defects of genetic algorithm and support vector machine. In cloud computing environment, firstly, SVM parameters are optimized by the parallel genetic algorithm, and then this optimized parallel SVM model is used to predict traffic flow. On the basis of the traffic flow data of Haizhu District in Guangzhou City, the proposed model was verified and compared with the serial GA-SVM model and parallel GA-SVM model based on MPI (message passing interface. The results demonstrate that the parallel GA-SVM model based on cloud computing has higher prediction accuracy, shorter running time, and higher speedup.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hamid R. Khosravani
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Energy consumption has been increasing steadily due to globalization and industrialization. Studies have shown that buildings are responsible for the biggest proportion of energy consumption; for example in European Union countries, energy consumption in buildings represents around 40% of the total energy consumption. In order to control energy consumption in buildings, different policies have been proposed, from utilizing bioclimatic architectures to the use of predictive models within control approaches. There are mainly three groups of predictive models including engineering, statistical and artificial intelligence models. Nowadays, artificial intelligence models such as neural networks and support vector machines have also been proposed because of their high potential capabilities of performing accurate nonlinear mappings between inputs and outputs in real environments which are not free of noise. The main objective of this paper is to compare a neural network model which was designed utilizing statistical and analytical methods, with a group of neural network models designed benefiting from a multi objective genetic algorithm. Moreover, the neural network models were compared to a naïve autoregressive baseline model. The models are intended to predict electric power demand at the Solar Energy Research Center (Centro de Investigación en Energía SOLar or CIESOL in Spanish bioclimatic building located at the University of Almeria, Spain. Experimental results show that the models obtained from the multi objective genetic algorithm (MOGA perform comparably to the model obtained through a statistical and analytical approach, but they use only 0.8% of data samples and have lower model complexity.
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Beigi Mohsen
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The present study aimed at investigation of deep bed drying of rough rice kernels at various thin layers at different drying air temperatures and flow rates. A comparative study was performed between mathematical thin layer models and artificial neural networks to estimate the drying curves of rough rice. The suitability of nine mathematical models in simulating the drying kinetics was examined and the Midilli model was determined as the best approach for describing drying curves. Different feed forward-back propagation artificial neural networks were examined to predict the moisture content variations of the grains. The ANN with 4-18-18-1 topology, transfer function of hyperbolic tangent sigmoid and a Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation training algorithm provided the best results with the maximum correlation coefficient and the minimum mean square error values. Furthermore, it was revealed that ANN modeling had better performance in prediction of drying curves with lower root mean square error values.
Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L
2017-05-01
Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery
Modeling of Failure Prediction Bayesian Network with Divide-and-Conquer Principle
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Zhiqiang Cai
2014-01-01
Full Text Available For system failure prediction, automatically modeling from historical failure dataset is one of the challenges in practical engineering fields. In this paper, an effective algorithm is proposed to build the failure prediction Bayesian network (FPBN model with data mining technology. First, the conception of FPBN is introduced to describe the state of components and system and the cause-effect relationships among them. The types of network nodes, the directions of network edges, and the conditional probability distributions (CPDs of nodes in FPBN are discussed in detail. According to the characteristics of nodes and edges in FPBN, a divide-and-conquer principle based algorithm (FPBN-DC is introduced to build the best FPBN network structures of different types of nodes separately. Then, the CPDs of nodes in FPBN are calculated by the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the built network. Finally, a simulation study of a helicopter convertor model is carried out to demonstrate the application of FPBN-DC. According to the simulations results, the FPBN-DC algorithm can get better fitness value with the lower number of iterations, which verified its effectiveness and efficiency compared with traditional algorithm.
Improving stability of prediction models based on correlated omics data by using network approaches.
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Renaud Tissier
Full Text Available Building prediction models based on complex omics datasets such as transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics remains a challenge in bioinformatics and biostatistics. Regularized regression techniques are typically used to deal with the high dimensionality of these datasets. However, due to the presence of correlation in the datasets, it is difficult to select the best model and application of these methods yields unstable results. We propose a novel strategy for model selection where the obtained models also perform well in terms of overall predictability. Several three step approaches are considered, where the steps are 1 network construction, 2 clustering to empirically derive modules or pathways, and 3 building a prediction model incorporating the information on the modules. For the first step, we use weighted correlation networks and Gaussian graphical modelling. Identification of groups of features is performed by hierarchical clustering. The grouping information is included in the prediction model by using group-based variable selection or group-specific penalization. We compare the performance of our new approaches with standard regularized regression via simulations. Based on these results we provide recommendations for selecting a strategy for building a prediction model given the specific goal of the analysis and the sizes of the datasets. Finally we illustrate the advantages of our approach by application of the methodology to two problems, namely prediction of body mass index in the DIetary, Lifestyle, and Genetic determinants of Obesity and Metabolic syndrome study (DILGOM and prediction of response of each breast cancer cell line to treatment with specific drugs using a breast cancer cell lines pharmacogenomics dataset.
Degradation Prediction Model Based on a Neural Network with Dynamic Windows
Zhang, Xinghui; Xiao, Lei; Kang, Jianshe
2015-01-01
Tracking degradation of mechanical components is very critical for effective maintenance decision making. Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a widely used form of degradation prediction. RUL prediction methods when enough run-to-failure condition monitoring data can be used have been fully researched, but for some high reliability components, it is very difficult to collect run-to-failure condition monitoring data, i.e., from normal to failure. Only a certain number of condition indicators in certain period can be used to estimate RUL. In addition, some existing prediction methods have problems which block RUL estimation due to poor extrapolability. The predicted value converges to a certain constant or fluctuates in certain range. Moreover, the fluctuant condition features also have bad effects on prediction. In order to solve these dilemmas, this paper proposes a RUL prediction model based on neural network with dynamic windows. This model mainly consists of three steps: window size determination by increasing rate, change point detection and rolling prediction. The proposed method has two dominant strengths. One is that the proposed approach does not need to assume the degradation trajectory is subject to a certain distribution. The other is it can adapt to variation of degradation indicators which greatly benefits RUL prediction. Finally, the performance of the proposed RUL prediction model is validated by real field data and simulation data. PMID:25806873
Research on the Prediction Model of CPU Utilization Based on ARIMA-BP Neural Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wang Jina
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The dynamic deployment technology of the virtual machine is one of the current cloud computing research focuses. The traditional methods mainly work after the degradation of the service performance that usually lag. To solve the problem a new prediction model based on the CPU utilization is constructed in this paper. A reference offered by the new prediction model of the CPU utilization is provided to the VM dynamic deployment process which will speed to finish the deployment process before the degradation of the service performance. By this method it not only ensure the quality of services but also improve the server performance and resource utilization. The new prediction method of the CPU utilization based on the ARIMA-BP neural network mainly include four parts: preprocess the collected data, build the predictive model of ARIMA-BP neural network, modify the nonlinear residuals of the time series by the BP prediction algorithm and obtain the prediction results by analyzing the above data comprehensively.
Adaptive LINE-P: An Adaptive Linear Energy Prediction Model for Wireless Sensor Network Nodes.
Ahmed, Faisal; Tamberg, Gert; Le Moullec, Yannick; Annus, Paul
2018-04-05
In the context of wireless sensor networks, energy prediction models are increasingly useful tools that can facilitate the power management of the wireless sensor network (WSN) nodes. However, most of the existing models suffer from the so-called fixed weighting parameter, which limits their applicability when it comes to, e.g., solar energy harvesters with varying characteristics. Thus, in this article we propose the Adaptive LINE-P (all cases) model that calculates adaptive weighting parameters based on the stored energy profiles. Furthermore, we also present a profile compression method to reduce the memory requirements. To determine the performance of our proposed model, we have used real data for the solar and wind energy profiles. The simulation results show that our model achieves 90-94% accuracy and that the compressed method reduces memory overheads by 50% as compared to state-of-the-art models.
Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network.
Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Gao, Shangce; Tang, Zheng
2017-01-01
With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.
Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ying Yu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.
Kang, Tianyu; Ding, Wei; Zhang, Luoyan; Ziemek, Daniel; Zarringhalam, Kourosh
2017-12-19
Stratification of patient subpopulations that respond favorably to treatment or experience and adverse reaction is an essential step toward development of new personalized therapies and diagnostics. It is currently feasible to generate omic-scale biological measurements for all patients in a study, providing an opportunity for machine learning models to identify molecular markers for disease diagnosis and progression. However, the high variability of genetic background in human populations hampers the reproducibility of omic-scale markers. In this paper, we develop a biological network-based regularized artificial neural network model for prediction of phenotype from transcriptomic measurements in clinical trials. To improve model sparsity and the overall reproducibility of the model, we incorporate regularization for simultaneous shrinkage of gene sets based on active upstream regulatory mechanisms into the model. We benchmark our method against various regression, support vector machines and artificial neural network models and demonstrate the ability of our method in predicting the clinical outcomes using clinical trial data on acute rejection in kidney transplantation and response to Infliximab in ulcerative colitis. We show that integration of prior biological knowledge into the classification as developed in this paper, significantly improves the robustness and generalizability of predictions to independent datasets. We provide a Java code of our algorithm along with a parsed version of the STRING DB database. In summary, we present a method for prediction of clinical phenotypes using baseline genome-wide expression data that makes use of prior biological knowledge on gene-regulatory interactions in order to increase robustness and reproducibility of omic-scale markers. The integrated group-wise regularization methods increases the interpretability of biological signatures and gives stable performance estimates across independent test sets.
Improving Gastric Cancer Outcome Prediction Using Single Time-Point Artificial Neural Network Models
Nilsaz-Dezfouli, Hamid; Abu-Bakar, Mohd Rizam; Arasan, Jayanthi; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin
2017-01-01
In cancer studies, the prediction of cancer outcome based on a set of prognostic variables has been a long-standing topic of interest. Current statistical methods for survival analysis offer the possibility of modelling cancer survivability but require unrealistic assumptions about the survival time distribution or proportionality of hazard. Therefore, attention must be paid in developing nonlinear models with less restrictive assumptions. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are primarily useful in prediction when nonlinear approaches are required to sift through the plethora of available information. The applications of ANN models for prognostic and diagnostic classification in medicine have attracted a lot of interest. The applications of ANN models in modelling the survival of patients with gastric cancer have been discussed in some studies without completely considering the censored data. This study proposes an ANN model for predicting gastric cancer survivability, considering the censored data. Five separate single time-point ANN models were developed to predict the outcome of patients after 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. The performance of ANN model in predicting the probabilities of death is consistently high for all time points according to the accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. PMID:28469384
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com [Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi (India); Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001 (India); Gupta, Shikha; Rai, Premanjali [Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi (India); Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001 (India)
2013-10-15
Robust global models capable of discriminating positive and non-positive carcinogens; and predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals in rodents were developed. The dataset of 834 structurally diverse chemicals extracted from Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) was used which contained 466 positive and 368 non-positive carcinogens. Twelve non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman statistics. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the carcinogenicity end point in rat. Validation of the models was performed using the internal and external procedures employing a wide series of statistical checks. PNN constructed using five descriptors rendered classification accuracy of 92.09% in complete rat data. The PNN model rendered classification accuracies of 91.77%, 80.70% and 92.08% in mouse, hamster and pesticide data, respectively. The GRNN constructed with nine descriptors yielded correlation coefficient of 0.896 between the measured and predicted carcinogenic potency with mean squared error (MSE) of 0.44 in complete rat data. The rat carcinogenicity model (GRNN) applied to the mouse and hamster data yielded correlation coefficient and MSE of 0.758, 0.71 and 0.760, 0.46, respectively. The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals. Both the PNN and GRNN (inter-species) models constructed here can be useful tools in predicting the carcinogenicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. - Graphical abstract: Figure (a) shows classification accuracies (positive and non-positive carcinogens) in rat, mouse, hamster, and pesticide data yielded by optimal PNN model. Figure (b) shows generalization and predictive
Unscented Kalman Filter-Trained Neural Networks for Slip Model Prediction
Li, Zhencai; Wang, Yang; Liu, Zhen
2016-01-01
The purpose of this work is to investigate the accurate trajectory tracking control of a wheeled mobile robot (WMR) based on the slip model prediction. Generally, a nonholonomic WMR may increase the slippage risk, when traveling on outdoor unstructured terrain (such as longitudinal and lateral slippage of wheels). In order to control a WMR stably and accurately under the effect of slippage, an unscented Kalman filter and neural networks (NNs) are applied to estimate the slip model in real time. This method exploits the model approximating capabilities of nonlinear state–space NN, and the unscented Kalman filter is used to train NN’s weights online. The slip parameters can be estimated and used to predict the time series of deviation velocity, which can be used to compensate control inputs of a WMR. The results of numerical simulation show that the desired trajectory tracking control can be performed by predicting the nonlinear slip model. PMID:27467703
Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: linear and neural network models.
Russo, Frank A; Vempala, Naresh N; Sandstrom, Gillian M
2013-01-01
Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of "felt" emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants-heart rate (HR), respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA) dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a non-linear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The non-linear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the non-linear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.
Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: Linear and neural network models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frank A. Russo
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of 'felt' emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants – heart rate, respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a nonlinear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The nonlinear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the nonlinear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.
Deep Belief Network Based Hybrid Model for Building Energy Consumption Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chengdong Li
2018-01-01
Full Text Available To enhance the prediction performance for building energy consumption, this paper presents a modified deep belief network (DBN based hybrid model. The proposed hybrid model combines the outputs from the DBN model with the energy-consuming pattern to yield the final prediction results. The energy-consuming pattern in this study represents the periodicity property of building energy consumption and can be extracted from the observed historical energy consumption data. The residual data generated by removing the energy-consuming pattern from the original data are utilized to train the modified DBN model. The training of the modified DBN includes two steps, the first one of which adopts the contrastive divergence (CD algorithm to optimize the hidden parameters in a pre-train way, while the second one determines the output weighting vector by the least squares method. The proposed hybrid model is applied to two kinds of building energy consumption data sets that have different energy-consuming patterns (daily-periodicity and weekly-periodicity. In order to examine the advantages of the proposed model, four popular artificial intelligence methods—the backward propagation neural network (BPNN, the generalized radial basis function neural network (GRBFNN, the extreme learning machine (ELM, and the support vector regressor (SVR are chosen as the comparative approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed DBN based hybrid model has the best performance compared with the comparative techniques. Another thing to be mentioned is that all the predictors constructed by utilizing the energy-consuming patterns perform better than those designed only by the original data. This verifies the usefulness of the incorporation of the energy-consuming patterns. The proposed approach can also be extended and applied to some other similar prediction problems that have periodicity patterns, e.g., the traffic flow forecasting and the electricity consumption
Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Based on a Self-Organizing Recurrent Neural Network.
Han, Hong-Gui; Zhang, Lu; Hou, Ying; Qiao, Jun-Fei
2016-02-01
A nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) scheme is developed in this paper based on a self-organizing recurrent radial basis function (SR-RBF) neural network, whose structure and parameters are adjusted concurrently in the training process. The proposed SR-RBF neural network is represented in a general nonlinear form for predicting the future dynamic behaviors of nonlinear systems. To improve the modeling accuracy, a spiking-based growing and pruning algorithm and an adaptive learning algorithm are developed to tune the structure and parameters of the SR-RBF neural network, respectively. Meanwhile, for the control problem, an improved gradient method is utilized for the solution of the optimization problem in NMPC. The stability of the resulting control system is proved based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the proposed SR-RBF neural network-based NMPC (SR-RBF-NMPC) is used to control the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in a wastewater treatment process (WWTP). Comparisons with other existing methods demonstrate that the SR-RBF-NMPC can achieve a considerably better model fitting for WWTP and a better control performance for DO concentration.
Minimum requirements for predictive pore-network modeling of solute transport in micromodels
Mehmani, Yashar; Tchelepi, Hamdi A.
2017-10-01
Pore-scale models are now an integral part of analyzing fluid dynamics in porous materials (e.g., rocks, soils, fuel cells). Pore network models (PNM) are particularly attractive due to their computational efficiency. However, quantitative predictions with PNM have not always been successful. We focus on single-phase transport of a passive tracer under advection-dominated regimes and compare PNM with high-fidelity direct numerical simulations (DNS) for a range of micromodel heterogeneities. We identify the minimum requirements for predictive PNM of transport. They are: (a) flow-based network extraction, i.e., discretizing the pore space based on the underlying velocity field, (b) a Lagrangian (particle tracking) simulation framework, and (c) accurate transfer of particles from one pore throat to the next. We develop novel network extraction and particle tracking PNM methods that meet these requirements. Moreover, we show that certain established PNM practices in the literature can result in first-order errors in modeling advection-dominated transport. They include: all Eulerian PNMs, networks extracted based on geometric metrics only, and flux-based nodal transfer probabilities. Preliminary results for a 3D sphere pack are also presented. The simulation inputs for this work are made public to serve as a benchmark for the research community.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lin, Jing-Fung; Sheu, Jer-Jia
2016-01-01
Citric acid coated (citrate-stabilized) magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ) magnetic nanoparticles have been conducted and applied in the biomedical fields. Using Taguchi-based measured retardances as the training data, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed for the prediction of retardance in citric acid (CA) coated ferrofluid (FF). According to the ANN simulation results in the training stage, the correlation coefficient between predicted retardances and measured retardances was found to be as high as 0.9999998. Based on the well-trained ANN model, the predicted retardance at excellent program from Taguchi method showed less error of 2.17% compared with a multiple regression (MR) analysis of statistical significance. Meanwhile, the parameter analysis at excellent program by the ANN model had the guiding significance to find out a possible program for the maximum retardance. It was concluded that the proposed ANN model had high ability for the prediction of retardance in CA coated FF. - Highlights: • The feedforward ANN is applied for modeling of retardance in CA coated FFs. • ANN can predict the retardance at excellent program with acceptable error to MR. • The proposed ANN has high ability for the prediction of retardance.
Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks
Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger
2013-06-01
Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.
Copula Entropy coupled with Wavelet Neural Network Model for Hydrological Prediction
Wang, Yin; Yue, JiGuang; Liu, ShuGuang; Wang, Li
2018-02-01
Artificial Neural network(ANN) has been widely used in hydrological forecasting. in this paper an attempt has been made to find an alternative method for hydrological prediction by combining Copula Entropy(CE) with Wavelet Neural Network(WNN), CE theory permits to calculate mutual information(MI) to select Input variables which avoids the limitations of the traditional linear correlation(LCC) analysis. Wavelet analysis can provide the exact locality of any changes in the dynamical patterns of the sequence Coupled with ANN Strong non-linear fitting ability. WNN model was able to provide a good fit with the hydrological data. finally, the hybrid model(CE+WNN) have been applied to daily water level of Taihu Lake Basin, and compared with CE ANN, LCC WNN and LCC ANN. Results showed that the hybrid model produced better results in estimating the hydrograph properties than the latter models.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Banu, P. S. Noori; Rani, S. Devaki [Dept. of Metallurgical Engineering, Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, HyderabadI (India)
2016-08-15
In view of emerging applications of alpha+beta titanium alloys in aerospace and defense, we have aimed to develop a Back propagation neural network (BPNN) model capable of predicting the properties of these alloys as functions of alloy composition and/or thermomechanical processing parameters. The optimized BPNN model architecture was based on the sigmoid transfer function and has one hidden layer with ten nodes. The BPNN model showed excellent predictability of five properties: Tensile strength (r: 0.96), yield strength (r: 0.93), beta transus (r: 0.96), specific heat capacity (r: 1.00) and density (r: 0.99). The developed BPNN model was in agreement with the experimental data in demonstrating the individual effects of alloying elements in modulating the above properties. This model can serve as the platform for the design and development of new alpha+beta titanium alloys in order to attain desired strength, density and specific heat capacity.
Some Remarks on Prediction of Drug-Target Interaction with Network Models.
Zhang, Shao-Wu; Yan, Xiao-Ying
2017-01-01
System-level understanding of the relationships between drugs and targets is very important for enhancing drug research, especially for drug function repositioning. The experimental methods used to determine drug-target interactions are usually time-consuming, tedious and expensive, and sometimes lack reproducibility. Thus, it is highly desired to develop computational methods for efficiently and effectively analyzing and detecting new drug-target interaction pairs. With the explosive growth of different types of omics data, such as genome, pharmacology, phenotypic, and other kinds of molecular networks, numerous computational approaches have been developed to predict Drug-Target Interactions (DTI). In this review, we make a survey on the recent advances in predicting drug-target interaction with network-based models from the following aspects: i) Available public data sources and benchmark datasets; ii) Drug/target similarity metrics; iii) Network construction; iv) Common network algorithms; v) Performance comparison of existing network-based DTI predictors. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mingyue Qiu
Full Text Available In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA. We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.
Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu
2016-01-01
In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.
Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.
2018-01-01
The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.
Prediction of tectonic stresses and fracture networks with geomechanical reservoir models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Henk, A.; Fischer, K.
2014-09-01
This project evaluates the potential of geomechanical Finite Element (FE) models for the prediction of in situ stresses and fracture networks in faulted reservoirs. Modeling focuses on spatial variations of the in situ stress distribution resulting from faults and contrasts in mechanical rock properties. In a first methodological part, a workflow is developed for building such geomechanical reservoir models and calibrating them to field data. In the second part, this workflow was applied successfully to an intensively faulted gas reservoir in the North German Basin. A truly field-scale geomechanical model covering more than 400km 2 was built and calibrated. It includes a mechanical stratigraphy as well as a network of 86 faults. The latter are implemented as distinct planes of weakness and allow the fault-specific evaluation of shear and normal stresses. A so-called static model describes the recent state of the reservoir and, thus, after calibration its results reveal the present-day in situ stress distribution. Further geodynamic modeling work considers the major stages in the tectonic history of the reservoir and provides insights in the paleo stress distribution. These results are compared to fracture data and hydraulic fault behavior observed today. The outcome of this project confirms the potential of geomechanical FE models for robust stress and fracture predictions. The workflow is generally applicable and can be used for modeling of any stress-sensitive reservoir.
Prediction of tectonic stresses and fracture networks with geomechanical reservoir models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Henk, A.; Fischer, K. [TU Darmstadt (Germany). Inst. fuer Angewandte Geowissenschaften
2014-09-15
This project evaluates the potential of geomechanical Finite Element (FE) models for the prediction of in situ stresses and fracture networks in faulted reservoirs. Modeling focuses on spatial variations of the in situ stress distribution resulting from faults and contrasts in mechanical rock properties. In a first methodological part, a workflow is developed for building such geomechanical reservoir models and calibrating them to field data. In the second part, this workflow was applied successfully to an intensively faulted gas reservoir in the North German Basin. A truly field-scale geomechanical model covering more than 400km{sup 2} was built and calibrated. It includes a mechanical stratigraphy as well as a network of 86 faults. The latter are implemented as distinct planes of weakness and allow the fault-specific evaluation of shear and normal stresses. A so-called static model describes the recent state of the reservoir and, thus, after calibration its results reveal the present-day in situ stress distribution. Further geodynamic modeling work considers the major stages in the tectonic history of the reservoir and provides insights in the paleo stress distribution. These results are compared to fracture data and hydraulic fault behavior observed today. The outcome of this project confirms the potential of geomechanical FE models for robust stress and fracture predictions. The workflow is generally applicable and can be used for modeling of any stress-sensitive reservoir.
Towards building a neural network model for predicting pile static load test curves
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alzo’ubi A. K.
2018-01-01
Full Text Available In the United Arab Emirates, Continuous Flight Auger piles are the most widely used type of deep foundation. To test the pile behaviour, the Static Load Test is routinely conducted in the field by increasing the dead load while monitoring the displacement. Although the test is reliable, it is expensive to conduct. This test is usually conducted in the UAE to verify the pile capacity and displacement as the load increase and decreases in two cycles. In this paper we will utilize the Artificial Neural Network approach to build a model that can predict a complete Static Load Pile test. We will show that by integrating the pile configuration, soil properties, and ground water table in one artificial neural network model, the Static Load Test can be predicted with confidence. We believe that based on this approach, the model is able to predict the entire pile load test from start to end. The suggested approach is an excellent tool to reduce the cost associated with such expensive tests or to predict pile’s performance ahead of the actual test.
Sensitivity Analysis of Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jinxing Shen
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In order to achieve a more accurate and robust traffic volume prediction model, the sensitivity of wavelet neural network model (WNNM is analyzed in this study. Based on real loop detector data which is provided by traffic police detachment of Maanshan, WNNM is discussed with different numbers of input neurons, different number of hidden neurons, and traffic volume for different time intervals. The test results show that the performance of WNNM depends heavily on network parameters and time interval of traffic volume. In addition, the WNNM with 4 input neurons and 6 hidden neurons is the optimal predictor with more accuracy, stability, and adaptability. At the same time, a much better prediction record will be achieved with the time interval of traffic volume are 15 minutes. In addition, the optimized WNNM is compared with the widely used back-propagation neural network (BPNN. The comparison results indicated that WNNM produce much lower values of MAE, MAPE, and VAPE than BPNN, which proves that WNNM performs better on short-term traffic volume prediction.
Multi-Model Prediction for Demand Forecast in Water Distribution Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rodrigo Lopez Farias
2018-03-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-model predictor called Qualitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus (QMMP+ for demand forecast in water distribution networks. QMMP+ is based on the decomposition of the quantitative and qualitative information of the time-series. The quantitative component (i.e., the daily consumption prediction is forecasted and the pattern mode estimated using a Nearest Neighbor (NN classifier and a Calendar. The patterns are updated via a simple Moving Average scheme. The NN classifier and the Calendar are executed simultaneously every period and the most suited model for prediction is selected using a probabilistic approach. The proposed solution for water demand forecast is compared against Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Networks (RBF-ANN, the statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, and Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW approaches, providing the best results when applied to real demand of the Barcelona Water Distribution Network. QMMP+ has demonstrated that the special modelling treatment of water consumption patterns improves the forecasting accuracy.
Product unit neural network models for predicting the growth limits of Listeria monocytogenes.
Valero, A; Hervás, C; García-Gimeno, R M; Zurera, G
2007-08-01
A new approach to predict the growth/no growth interface of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of storage temperature, pH, citric acid (CA) and ascorbic acid (AA) is presented. A linear logistic regression procedure was performed and a non-linear model was obtained by adding new variables by means of a Neural Network model based on Product Units (PUNN). The classification efficiency of the training data set and the generalization data of the new Logistic Regression PUNN model (LRPU) were compared with Linear Logistic Regression (LLR) and Polynomial Logistic Regression (PLR) models. 92% of the total cases from the LRPU model were correctly classified, an improvement on the percentage obtained using the PLR model (90%) and significantly higher than the results obtained with the LLR model, 80%. On the other hand predictions of LRPU were closer to data observed which permits to design proper formulations in minimally processed foods. This novel methodology can be applied to predictive microbiology for describing growth/no growth interface of food-borne microorganisms such as L. monocytogenes. The optimal balance is trying to find models with an acceptable interpretation capacity and with good ability to fit the data on the boundaries of variable range. The results obtained conclude that these kinds of models might well be very a valuable tool for mathematical modeling.
Boolean network model for cancer pathways: predicting carcinogenesis and targeted therapy outcomes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Herman F Fumiã
Full Text Available A Boolean dynamical system integrating the main signaling pathways involved in cancer is constructed based on the currently known protein-protein interaction network. This system exhibits stationary protein activation patterns--attractors--dependent on the cell's microenvironment. These dynamical attractors were determined through simulations and their stabilities against mutations were tested. In a higher hierarchical level, it was possible to group the network attractors into distinct cell phenotypes and determine driver mutations that promote phenotypic transitions. We find that driver nodes are not necessarily central in the network topology, but at least they are direct regulators of central components towards which converge or through which crosstalk distinct cancer signaling pathways. The predicted drivers are in agreement with those pointed out by diverse census of cancer genes recently performed for several human cancers. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that cell phenotypes can evolve towards full malignancy through distinct sequences of accumulated mutations. In particular, the network model supports routes of carcinogenesis known for some tumor types. Finally, the Boolean network model is employed to evaluate the outcome of molecularly targeted cancer therapies. The major find is that monotherapies were additive in their effects and that the association of targeted drugs is necessary for cancer eradication.
A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature
Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell
2014-01-01
Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate
Modeling and Prediction of Coal Ash Fusion Temperature based on BP Neural Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miao Suzhen
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Coal ash is the residual generated from combustion of coal. The ash fusion temperature (AFT of coal gives detail information on the suitability of a coal source for gasification procedures, and specifically to which extent ash agglomeration or clinkering is likely to occur within the gasifier. To investigate the contribution of oxides in coal ash to AFT, data of coal ash chemical compositions and Softening Temperature (ST in different regions of China were collected in this work and a BP neural network model was established by XD-APC PLATFORM. In the BP model, the inputs were the ash compositions and the output was the ST. In addition, the ash fusion temperature prediction model was obtained by industrial data and the model was generalized by different industrial data. Compared to empirical formulas, the BP neural network obtained better results. By different tests, the best result and the best configurations for the model were obtained: hidden layer nodes of the BP network was setted as three, the component contents (SiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3, CaO, MgO were used as inputs and ST was used as output of the model.
Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F
2017-01-01
Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.
Yakubu, A.; Oluremi, O. I. A.; Ekpo, E. I.
2018-03-01
There is an increasing use of robust analytical algorithms in the prediction of heat stress. The present investigation therefore, was carried out to forecast heat stress index (HSI) in Sasso laying hens. One hundred and sixty seven records on the thermo-physiological parameters of the birds were utilized. They were reared on deep litter and battery cage systems. Data were collected when the birds were 42- and 52-week of age. The independent variables fitted were housing system, age of birds, rectal temperature (RT), pulse rate (PR), and respiratory rate (RR). The response variable was HSI. Data were analyzed using automatic linear modeling (ALM) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The ALM model building method involved Forward Stepwise using the F Statistic criterion. As regards ANN, multilayer perceptron (MLP) with back-propagation network was used. The ANN network was trained with 90% of the data set while 10% were dedicated to testing for model validation. RR and PR were the two parameters of utmost importance in the prediction of HSI. However, the fractional importance of RR was higher than that of PR in both ALM (0.947 versus 0.053) and ANN (0.677 versus 0.274) models. The two models also predicted HSI effectively with high degree of accuracy [r = 0.980, R 2 = 0.961, adjusted R 2 = 0.961, and RMSE = 0.05168 (ALM); r = 0.983, R 2 = 0.966; adjusted R 2 = 0.966, and RMSE = 0.04806 (ANN)]. The present information may be exploited in the development of a heat stress chart based largely on RR. This may aid detection of thermal discomfort in a poultry house under tropical and subtropical conditions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Özgören, Yaşar Önder; Çetinkaya, Selim; Sarıdemir, Suat; Çiçek, Adem; Kara, Fuat
2013-01-01
Highlights: ► Max torque and power values were obtained at 3.5 bar Pch, 1273 K Hst and 1.4:1 r. ► According to ANOVA, the most influential parameter on power was Hst with 48.75%. ► According to ANOVA, the most influential parameter on torque was Hst with 41.78%. ► ANN (R 2 = 99.8% for T, P) was superior to regression method (R 2 = 92% for T, 81% for P). ► LM was the best learning algorithm in predicting both power and torque. - Abstract: In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the torque and power of a beta-type Stirling engine using helium as the working fluid. The best results were obtained by 5-11-7-1 and 5-13-7-1 network architectures, with double hidden layers for the torque and power respectively. For these network architectures, the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm was used. Engine performance values predicted with the developed ANN model were compared with the actual performance values measured experimentally, and substantially coinciding results were observed. After ANN training, correlation coefficients (R 2 ) of both engine performance values for testing and training data were very close to 1. Similarly, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean error percentage (MEP) values for the testing and training data were less than 0.02% and 3.5% respectively. These results showed that the ANN is an acceptable model for prediction of the torque and power of the beta-type Stirling engine
Congestion Prediction Modeling for Quality of Service Improvement in Wireless Sensor Networks
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Ga-Won Lee
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Information technology (IT is pushing ahead with drastic reforms of modern life for improvement of human welfare. Objects constitute “Information Networks” through smart, self-regulated information gathering that also recognizes and controls current information states in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs. Information observed from sensor networks in real-time is used to increase quality of life (QoL in various industries and daily life. One of the key challenges of the WSNs is how to achieve lossless data transmission. Although nowadays sensor nodes have enhanced capacities, it is hard to assure lossless and reliable end-to-end data transmission in WSNs due to the unstable wireless links and low hard ware resources to satisfy high quality of service (QoS requirements. We propose a node and path traffic prediction model to predict and minimize the congestion. This solution includes prediction of packet generation due to network congestion from both periodic and event data generation. Simulation using NS-2 and Matlab is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed solution.
Chen, W.-B.; Liu, W.-C.; Hsu, M.-H.
2012-12-01
Precise predictions of storm surges during typhoon events have the necessity for disaster prevention in coastal seas. This paper explores an artificial neural network (ANN) model, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithms used to correct poor calculations with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in predicting storm surge height during typhoon events. The two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and considers the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which can be applied for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges along the east coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model indicate that this model fails to predict storm surge height during the model calibration and verification phases as typhoons approached the east coast of Taiwan. The BPNN model can reproduce the astronomical tide level but fails to modify the prediction of the storm surge tide level. The ANFIS model satisfactorily predicts both the astronomical tide level and the storm surge height during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error and root-mean-square error compared to the simulated results at the different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison results showed that the ANFIS techniques could be successfully applied in predicting water levels along the east coastal of Taiwan during typhoon events.
Logic-based models in systems biology: a predictive and parameter-free network analysis method.
Wynn, Michelle L; Consul, Nikita; Merajver, Sofia D; Schnell, Santiago
2012-11-01
Highly complex molecular networks, which play fundamental roles in almost all cellular processes, are known to be dysregulated in a number of diseases, most notably in cancer. As a consequence, there is a critical need to develop practical methodologies for constructing and analysing molecular networks at a systems level. Mathematical models built with continuous differential equations are an ideal methodology because they can provide a detailed picture of a network's dynamics. To be predictive, however, differential equation models require that numerous parameters be known a priori and this information is almost never available. An alternative dynamical approach is the use of discrete logic-based models that can provide a good approximation of the qualitative behaviour of a biochemical system without the burden of a large parameter space. Despite their advantages, there remains significant resistance to the use of logic-based models in biology. Here, we address some common concerns and provide a brief tutorial on the use of logic-based models, which we motivate with biological examples.
Predictive model identifies key network regulators of cardiomyocyte mechano-signaling.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philip M Tan
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Mechanical strain is a potent stimulus for growth and remodeling in cells. Although many pathways have been implicated in stretch-induced remodeling, the control structures by which signals from distinct mechano-sensors are integrated to modulate hypertrophy and gene expression in cardiomyocytes remain unclear. Here, we constructed and validated a predictive computational model of the cardiac mechano-signaling network in order to elucidate the mechanisms underlying signal integration. The model identifies calcium, actin, Ras, Raf1, PI3K, and JAK as key regulators of cardiac mechano-signaling and characterizes crosstalk logic imparting differential control of transcription by AT1R, integrins, and calcium channels. We find that while these regulators maintain mostly independent control over distinct groups of transcription factors, synergy between multiple pathways is necessary to activate all the transcription factors necessary for gene transcription and hypertrophy. We also identify a PKG-dependent mechanism by which valsartan/sacubitril, a combination drug recently approved for treating heart failure, inhibits stretch-induced hypertrophy, and predict further efficacious pairs of drug targets in the network through a network-wide combinatorial search.
Dynamic Socialized Gaussian Process Models for Human Behavior Prediction in a Health Social Network
Shen, Yelong; Phan, NhatHai; Xiao, Xiao; Jin, Ruoming; Sun, Junfeng; Piniewski, Brigitte; Kil, David; Dou, Dejing
2016-01-01
Modeling and predicting human behaviors, such as the level and intensity of physical activity, is a key to preventing the cascade of obesity and helping spread healthy behaviors in a social network. In our conference paper, we have developed a social influence model, named Socialized Gaussian Process (SGP), for socialized human behavior modeling. Instead of explicitly modeling social influence as individuals' behaviors influenced by their friends' previous behaviors, SGP models the dynamic social correlation as the result of social influence. The SGP model naturally incorporates personal behavior factor and social correlation factor (i.e., the homophily principle: Friends tend to perform similar behaviors) into a unified model. And it models the social influence factor (i.e., an individual's behavior can be affected by his/her friends) implicitly in dynamic social correlation schemes. The detailed experimental evaluation has shown the SGP model achieves better prediction accuracy compared with most of baseline methods. However, a Socialized Random Forest model may perform better at the beginning compared with the SGP model. One of the main reasons is the dynamic social correlation function is purely based on the users' sequential behaviors without considering other physical activity-related features. To address this issue, we further propose a novel “multi-feature SGP model” (mfSGP) which improves the SGP model by using multiple physical activity-related features in the dynamic social correlation learning. Extensive experimental results illustrate that the mfSGP model clearly outperforms all other models in terms of prediction accuracy and running time. PMID:27746515
Velderraín, José Dávila; Martínez-García, Juan Carlos; Álvarez-Buylla, Elena R
2017-01-01
Mathematical models based on dynamical systems theory are well-suited tools for the integration of available molecular experimental data into coherent frameworks in order to propose hypotheses about the cooperative regulatory mechanisms driving developmental processes. Computational analysis of the proposed models using well-established methods enables testing the hypotheses by contrasting predictions with observations. Within such framework, Boolean gene regulatory network dynamical models have been extensively used in modeling plant development. Boolean models are simple and intuitively appealing, ideal tools for collaborative efforts between theorists and experimentalists. In this chapter we present protocols used in our group for the study of diverse plant developmental processes. We focus on conceptual clarity and practical implementation, providing directions to the corresponding technical literature.
A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records
Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen
2017-07-01
An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.
Serotonergic modulation of spatial working memory: predictions from a computational network model
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Maria eCano-Colino
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Serotonin (5-HT receptors of types 1A and 2A are massively expressed in prefrontal cortex (PFC neurons, an area associated with cognitive function. Hence, 5-HT could be effective in modulating prefrontal-dependent cognitive functions, such as spatial working memory (SWM. However, a direct association between 5-HT and SWM has proved elusive in psycho-pharmacological studies. Recently, a computational network model of the PFC microcircuit was used to explore the relationship between 5‑HT and SWM (Cano-Colino et al. 2013. This study found that both excessive and insufficient 5-HT levels lead to impaired SWM performance in the network, and it concluded that analyzing behavioral responses based on confidence reports could facilitate the experimental identification of SWM behavioral effects of 5‑HT neuromodulation. Such analyses may have confounds based on our limited understanding of metacognitive processes. Here, we extend these results by deriving three additional predictions from the model that do not rely on confidence reports. Firstly, only excessive levels of 5-HT should result in SWM deficits that increase with delay duration. Secondly, excessive 5-HT baseline concentration makes the network vulnerable to distractors at distances that were robust to distraction in control conditions, while the network still ignores distractors efficiently for low 5‑HT levels that impair SWM. Finally, 5-HT modulates neuronal memory fields in neurophysiological experiments: Neurons should be better tuned to the cued stimulus than to the behavioral report for excessive 5-HT levels, while the reverse should happen for low 5-HT concentrations. In all our simulations agonists of 5-HT1A receptors and antagonists of 5-HT2A receptors produced behavioral and physiological effects in line with global 5-HT level increases. Our model makes specific predictions to be tested experimentally and advance our understanding of the neural basis of SWM and its neuromodulation
Response surface and neural network based predictive models of cutting temperature in hard turning
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Mozammel Mia
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The present study aimed to develop the predictive models of average tool-workpiece interface temperature in hard turning of AISI 1060 steels by coated carbide insert. The Response Surface Methodology (RSM and Artificial Neural Network (ANN were employed to predict the temperature in respect of cutting speed, feed rate and material hardness. The number and orientation of the experimental trials, conducted in both dry and high pressure coolant (HPC environments, were planned using full factorial design. The temperature was measured by using the tool-work thermocouple. In RSM model, two quadratic equations of temperature were derived from experimental data. The analysis of variance (ANOVA and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE were performed to suffice the adequacy of the models. In ANN model, 80% data were used to train and 20% data were employed for testing. Like RSM, herein, the error analysis was also conducted. The accuracy of the RSM and ANN model was found to be ⩾99%. The ANN models exhibit an error of ∼5% MAE for testing data. The regression coefficient was found to be greater than 99.9% for both dry and HPC. Both these models are acceptable, although the ANN model demonstrated a higher accuracy. These models, if employed, are expected to provide a better control of cutting temperature in turning of hardened steel.
Tran, Tri; Ha, Q P
2018-01-01
A perturbed cooperative-state feedback (PSF) strategy is presented for the control of interconnected systems in this paper. The subsystems of an interconnected system can exchange data via the communication network that has multiple connection topologies. The PSF strategy can resolve both issues, the sensor data losses and the communication network breaks, thanks to the two components of the control including a cooperative-state feedback and a perturbation variable, e.g., u i =K ij x j +w i . The PSF is implemented in a decentralized model predictive control scheme with a stability constraint and a non-monotonic storage function (ΔV(x(k))≥0), derived from the dissipative systems theory. Numerical simulation for the automatic generation control problem in power systems is studied to illustrate the effectiveness of the presented PSF strategy. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Predicting mastitis in dairy cows using neural networks and generalized additive models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Anantharama Ankinakatte, Smitha; Norberg, Elise; Løvendahl, Peter
2013-01-01
The aim of this paper is to develop and compare methods for early detection of oncoming mastitis with automated recorded data. The data were collected at the Danish Cattle Research Center (Tjele, Denmark). As indicators of mastitis, electrical conductivity (EC), somatic cell scores (SCS), lactate...... that combines residual components into a score to improve the model. To develop and verify the model, the data are randomly divided into training and validation data sets. To predict the occurrence of mastitis, neural network models (NNs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) are developed using the training...... classification with all indicators, using individual residuals rather than factor scores. When SCS is excluded, GAMs shows better classification result when milk yield is also excluded. In conclusion, the study shows that NNs and GAMs are similar in their ability to detect mastitis, a sensitivity of almost 75...
Jeon, Jin Pyeong; Kim, Chulho; Oh, Byoung-Doo; Kim, Sun Jeong; Kim, Yu-Seop
2018-01-01
To assess and compare predictive factors for persistent hemodynamic depression (PHD) after carotid artery angioplasty and stenting (CAS) using artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple logistic regression (MLR) or support vector machines (SVM) models. A retrospective data set of patients (n=76) who underwent CAS from 2007 to 2014 was used as input (training cohort) to a back-propagation ANN using TensorFlow platform. PHD was defined when systolic blood pressure was less than 90mmHg or heart rate was less 50 beats/min that lasted for more than one hour. The resulting ANN was prospectively tested in 33 patients (test cohort) and compared with MLR or SVM models according to accuracy and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. No significant difference in baseline characteristics between the training cohort and the test cohort was observed. PHD was observed in 21 (27.6%) patients in the training cohort and 10 (30.3%) patients in the test cohort. In the training cohort, the accuracy of ANN for the prediction of PHD was 98.7% and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.961. In the test cohort, the number of correctly classified instances was 32 (97.0%) using the ANN model. In contrast, the accuracy rate of MLR or SVM model was both 75.8%. ANN (AUROC: 0.950; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 0.813-0.996) showed superior predictive performance compared to MLR model (AUROC: 0.796; 95% CI: 0.620-0.915, p<0.001) or SVM model (AUROC: 0.885; 95% CI: 0.725-0.969, p<0.001). The ANN model seems to have more powerful prediction capabilities than MLR or SVM model for persistent hemodynamic depression after CAS. External validation with a large cohort is needed to confirm our results. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Diversity and plasticity of Th cell types predicted from regulatory network modelling.
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Aurélien Naldi
Full Text Available Alternative cell differentiation pathways are believed to arise from the concerted action of signalling pathways and transcriptional regulatory networks. However, the prediction of mammalian cell differentiation from the knowledge of the presence of specific signals and transcriptional factors is still a daunting challenge. In this respect, the vertebrate hematopoietic system, with its many branching differentiation pathways and cell types, is a compelling case study. In this paper, we propose an integrated, comprehensive model of the regulatory network and signalling pathways controlling Th cell differentiation. As most available data are qualitative, we rely on a logical formalism to perform extensive dynamical analyses. To cope with the size and complexity of the resulting network, we use an original model reduction approach together with a stable state identification algorithm. To assess the effects of heterogeneous environments on Th cell differentiation, we have performed a systematic series of simulations considering various prototypic environments. Consequently, we have identified stable states corresponding to canonical Th1, Th2, Th17 and Treg subtypes, but these were found to coexist with other transient hybrid cell types that co-express combinations of Th1, Th2, Treg and Th17 markers in an environment-dependent fashion. In the process, our logical analysis highlights the nature of these cell types and their relationships with canonical Th subtypes. Finally, our logical model can be used to explore novel differentiation pathways in silico.
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Cheng Xu
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Free flow speed is a fundamental measure of traffic performance and has been found to affect the severity of crash risk. However, the previous studies lack analysis and modelling of impact factors on bicycles’ free flow speed. The main focus of this study is to develop multilayer back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN models for the prediction of free flow speed and crash risk on the separated bicycle path. Four different models with considering different combinations of input variables (e.g., path width, traffic condition, bicycle type, and cyclists’ characteristics were developed. 459 field data samples were collected from eleven bicycle paths in Hangzhou, China, and 70% of total samples were used for training, 15% for validation, and 15% for testing. The results show that considering the input variables of bicycle types and characteristics of cyclists will effectively improve the accuracy of the prediction models. Meanwhile, the parameters of bicycle types have more significant effect on predicting free flow speed of bicycle compared to those of cyclists’ characteristics. The findings could contribute for evaluation, planning, and management of bicycle safety.
Model predictive control for power flows in networks with limited capacity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Biegel, Benjamin; Stoustrup, Jakob; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon
2012-01-01
this problem can be formulated as an optimization problem, leading directly to the design of a model predictive controller. Using this scheme, we are able to incorporate predictions of future consumption and exploit knowledge of link limitations such that the intelligent consumers are utilized ahead of time......We consider an interconnected network of consumers powered through an electrical grid of limited capacity. A subset of the consumers are intelligent consumers and have the ability to store energy in a controllable fashion; they can be filled and emptied as desired under power and capacity...... limitations. We address the problem of maintaining power balance between production and consumption using the intelligent consumers to ensure smooth power consumption from the grid. Further, certain capacity limitations to the links interconnecting the consumers must be honored. In this paper, we show how...
Logic-based models in systems biology: a predictive and parameter-free network analysis method†
Wynn, Michelle L.; Consul, Nikita; Merajver, Sofia D.
2012-01-01
Highly complex molecular networks, which play fundamental roles in almost all cellular processes, are known to be dysregulated in a number of diseases, most notably in cancer. As a consequence, there is a critical need to develop practical methodologies for constructing and analysing molecular networks at a systems level. Mathematical models built with continuous differential equations are an ideal methodology because they can provide a detailed picture of a network’s dynamics. To be predictive, however, differential equation models require that numerous parameters be known a priori and this information is almost never available. An alternative dynamical approach is the use of discrete logic-based models that can provide a good approximation of the qualitative behaviour of a biochemical system without the burden of a large parameter space. Despite their advantages, there remains significant resistance to the use of logic-based models in biology. Here, we address some common concerns and provide a brief tutorial on the use of logic-based models, which we motivate with biological examples. PMID:23072820
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
ZareNezhad, Bahman; Aminian, Ali
2011-01-01
This paper presents a new approach based on using an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the acid dew points of the combustion gases in process and power plants. The most important acidic combustion gases namely, SO 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , HCl and HBr are considered in this investigation. Proposed Network is trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation algorithm and the hyperbolic tangent sigmoid activation function is applied to calculate the output values of the neurons of the hidden layer. According to the network's training, validation and testing results, a three layer neural network with nine neurons in the hidden layer is selected as the best architecture for accurate prediction of the acidic combustion gases dew points over wide ranges of acid and moisture concentrations. The proposed neural network model can have significant application in predicting the condensation temperatures of different acid gases to mitigate the corrosion problems in stacks, pollution control devices and energy recovery systems.
Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Harvey, Judson W.
2014-09-01
Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.
Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Harvey, Judson
2014-01-01
Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.
Gur, M.; Zomot, E.; Bahar, I.
2013-09-01
The Anton supercomputing technology recently developed for efficient molecular dynamics simulations permits us to examine micro- to milli-second events at full atomic resolution for proteins in explicit water and lipid bilayer. It also permits us to investigate to what extent the collective motions predicted by network models (that have found broad use in molecular biophysics) agree with those exhibited by full-atomic long simulations. The present study focuses on Anton trajectories generated for two systems: the bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor, and an archaeal aspartate transporter, GltPh. The former, a thoroughly studied system, helps benchmark the method of comparative analysis, and the latter provides new insights into the mechanism of function of glutamate transporters. The principal modes of motion derived from both simulations closely overlap with those predicted for each system by the anisotropic network model (ANM). Notably, the ANM modes define the collective mechanisms, or the pathways on conformational energy landscape, that underlie the passage between the crystal structure and substates visited in simulations. In particular, the lowest frequency ANM modes facilitate the conversion between the most probable substates, lending support to the view that easy access to functional substates is a robust determinant of evolutionarily selected native contact topology.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zina Boussaada
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The solar photovoltaic (PV energy has an important place among the renewable energy sources. Therefore, several researchers have been interested by its modelling and its prediction, in order to improve the management of the electrical systems which include PV arrays. Among the existing techniques, artificial neural networks have proved their performance in the prediction of the solar radiation. However, the existing neural network models don’t satisfy the requirements of certain specific situations such as the one analyzed in this paper. The aim of this research work is to supply, with electricity, a race sailboat using exclusively renewable sources. The developed solution predicts the direct solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For that, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX neural network is used. All the specific conditions of the sailboat operation are taken into account. The results show that the best prediction performance is obtained when the training phase of the neural network is performed periodically.
A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network
Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda
2018-06-01
The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.
EBaLM-THP - A neural network thermohydraulic prediction model of advanced nuclear system components
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ridluan, Artit; Manic, Milos; Tokuhiro, Akira
2009-01-01
In lieu of the worldwide energy demand, economics and consensus concern regarding climate change, nuclear power - specifically near-term nuclear power plant designs are receiving increased engineering attention. However, as the nuclear industry is emerging from a lull in component modeling and analyses, optimization for example using ANN has received little research attention. This paper presents a neural network approach, EBaLM, based on a specific combination of two training algorithms, error-back propagation (EBP), and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), applied to a problem of thermohydraulics predictions (THPs) of advanced nuclear heat exchangers (HXs). The suitability of the EBaLM-THP algorithm was tested on two different reference problems in thermohydraulic design analysis; that is, convective heat transfer of supercritical CO 2 through a single tube, and convective heat transfer through a printed circuit heat exchanger (PCHE) using CO 2 . Further, comparison of EBaLM-THP and a polynomial fitting approach was considered. Within the defined reference problems, the neural network approach generated good results in both cases, in spite of highly fluctuating trends in the dataset used. In fact, the neural network approach demonstrated cumulative measure of the error one to three orders of magnitude smaller than that produce via polynomial fitting of 10th order
Use of Neural Networks for modeling and predicting boiler's operating performance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kljajić, Miroslav; Gvozdenac, Dušan; Vukmirović, Srdjan
2012-01-01
The need for high boiler operating performance requires the application of improved techniques for the rational use of energy. The analysis presented is guided by an effort to find possibilities for ways energy resources can be used wisely to secure a more efficient final energy supply. However, the biggest challenges are related to the variety and stochastic nature of influencing factors. The paper presents a method for modeling, assessing, and predicting the efficiency of boilers based on measured operating performance. The method utilizes a neural network approach to analyze and predict boiler efficiency and also to discover possibilities for enhancing efficiency. The analysis is based on energy surveys of 65 randomly selected boilers located at over 50 sites in the northern province of Serbia. These surveys included a representative range of industrial, public and commercial users of steam and hot water. The sample covered approximately 25% of all boilers in the province and yielded reliable and relevant results. By creating a database combined with soft computing assistance a wide range of possibilities are created for identifying and assessing factors of influence and making a critical evaluation of practices used on the supply side as a source of identified inefficiency. -- Highlights: ► We develop the model for assessing and predicting efficiency of boilers. ► The method implies the use of Artificial Neural Network approach for analysis. ► The results obtained correspond well to collected and measured data. ► Findings confirm and present good abilities of preventive or proactive approach. ► Analysis reveals and specifies opportunities for increasing efficiency of boilers.
Jahedi Rad, Shahpour; Kaveh, Mohammad; Sharabiani, Vali Rasooli; Taghinezhad, Ebrahim
2018-05-01
The thin-layer convective- infrared drying behavior of white mulberry was experimentally studied at infrared power levels of 500, 1000 and 1500 W, drying air temperatures of 40, 55 and 70 °C and inlet drying air speeds of 0.4, 1 and 1.6 m/s. Drying rate raised with the rise of infrared power levels at a distinct air temperature and velocity and thus decreased the drying time. Five mathematical models describing thin-layer drying have been fitted to the drying data. Midlli et al. model could satisfactorily describe the convective-infrared drying of white mulberry fruit with the values of the correlation coefficient (R 2=0.9986) and root mean square error of (RMSE= 0.04795). Artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy logic methods was desirably utilized for modeling output parameters (moisture ratio (MR)) regarding input parameters. Results showed that output parameters were more accurately predicted by fuzzy model than by the ANN and mathematical models. Correlation coefficient (R 2) and RMSE generated by the fuzzy model (respectively 0.9996 and 0.01095) were higher than referred values for the ANN model (0.9990 and 0.01988 respectively).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chih-Chieh Young
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN model (back propagation neural network, BPNN, a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations was collected for model calibration (training and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.
Regression and artificial neural network modeling for the prediction of gray leaf spot of maize.
Paul, P A; Munkvold, G P
2005-04-01
ABSTRACT Regression and artificial neural network (ANN) modeling approaches were combined to develop models to predict the severity of gray leaf spot of maize, caused by Cercospora zeae-maydis. In all, 329 cases consisting of environmental, cultural, and location-specific variables were collected for field plots in Iowa between 1998 and 2002. Disease severity on the ear leaf at the dough to dent plant growth stage was used as the response variable. Correlation and regression analyses were performed to select potentially useful predictor variables. Predictors from the best 9 of 80 regression models were used to develop ANN models. A random sample of 60% of the cases was used to train the networks, and 20% each for testing and validation. Model performance was evaluated based on coefficient of determination (R(2)) and mean square error (MSE) for the validation data set. The best models had R(2) ranging from 0.70 to 0.75 and MSE ranging from 174.7 to 202.8. The most useful predictor variables were hours of daily temperatures between 22 and 30 degrees C (85.50 to 230.50 h) and hours of nightly relative humidity >/=90% (122 to 330 h) for the period between growth stages V4 and V12, mean nightly temperature (65.26 to 76.56 degrees C) for the period between growth stages V12 and R2, longitude (90.08 to 95.14 degrees W), maize residue on the soil surface (0 to 100%), planting date (in day of the year; 112 to 182), and gray leaf spot resistance rating (2 to 7; based on a 1-to-9 scale, where 1 = most susceptible to 9 = most resistant).
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T
2011-07-01
Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W.; Machado, Marcelo D.
2011-01-01
Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)
Marbach, Daniel; Roy, Sushmita; Ay, Ferhat; Meyer, Patrick E.; Candeias, Rogerio; Kahveci, Tamer; Bristow, Christopher A.; Kellis, Manolis
2012-01-01
Gaining insights on gene regulation from large-scale functional data sets is a grand challenge in systems biology. In this article, we develop and apply methods for transcriptional regulatory network inference from diverse functional genomics data sets and demonstrate their value for gene function and gene expression prediction. We formulate the network inference problem in a machine-learning framework and use both supervised and unsupervised methods to predict regulatory edges by integrating transcription factor (TF) binding, evolutionarily conserved sequence motifs, gene expression, and chromatin modification data sets as input features. Applying these methods to Drosophila melanogaster, we predict ∼300,000 regulatory edges in a network of ∼600 TFs and 12,000 target genes. We validate our predictions using known regulatory interactions, gene functional annotations, tissue-specific expression, protein–protein interactions, and three-dimensional maps of chromosome conformation. We use the inferred network to identify putative functions for hundreds of previously uncharacterized genes, including many in nervous system development, which are independently confirmed based on their tissue-specific expression patterns. Last, we use the regulatory network to predict target gene expression levels as a function of TF expression, and find significantly higher predictive power for integrative networks than for motif or ChIP-based networks. Our work reveals the complementarity between physical evidence of regulatory interactions (TF binding, motif conservation) and functional evidence (coordinated expression or chromatin patterns) and demonstrates the power of data integration for network inference and studies of gene regulation at the systems level. PMID:22456606
Marbach, Daniel; Roy, Sushmita; Ay, Ferhat; Meyer, Patrick E; Candeias, Rogerio; Kahveci, Tamer; Bristow, Christopher A; Kellis, Manolis
2012-07-01
Gaining insights on gene regulation from large-scale functional data sets is a grand challenge in systems biology. In this article, we develop and apply methods for transcriptional regulatory network inference from diverse functional genomics data sets and demonstrate their value for gene function and gene expression prediction. We formulate the network inference problem in a machine-learning framework and use both supervised and unsupervised methods to predict regulatory edges by integrating transcription factor (TF) binding, evolutionarily conserved sequence motifs, gene expression, and chromatin modification data sets as input features. Applying these methods to Drosophila melanogaster, we predict ∼300,000 regulatory edges in a network of ∼600 TFs and 12,000 target genes. We validate our predictions using known regulatory interactions, gene functional annotations, tissue-specific expression, protein-protein interactions, and three-dimensional maps of chromosome conformation. We use the inferred network to identify putative functions for hundreds of previously uncharacterized genes, including many in nervous system development, which are independently confirmed based on their tissue-specific expression patterns. Last, we use the regulatory network to predict target gene expression levels as a function of TF expression, and find significantly higher predictive power for integrative networks than for motif or ChIP-based networks. Our work reveals the complementarity between physical evidence of regulatory interactions (TF binding, motif conservation) and functional evidence (coordinated expression or chromatin patterns) and demonstrates the power of data integration for network inference and studies of gene regulation at the systems level.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shahram Paydar
2016-01-01
fine needle aspiration and surgical histopathology results. The results matched in 63.5% of subjects. On the other hand, fine needle aspiration biopsy results falsely predicted malignant thyroid nodules in 16% of cases (false-negative. In 20.5% of subjects, fine needle aspiration was falsely positive for thyroid malignancy. The Resilient back Propagation (RP training algorithm lead to acceptable accuracy in prediction for the designed artificial neural network (64.66% by the cross- validation method. Under the cross-validation method, a back propagation algorithm that used the resilient back propagation protocol - the accuracy in prediction for the trained artificial neural network was 64.66%. Conclusion: An extensive bio-statistically validated artificial neural network of certain clinical, paraclinical and individual given inputs (predictors has the capability to stratify the malignancy risk of a thyroid nodule in order to individualize patient care. This risk assessment model (tool can virtually minimize unnecessary diagnostic thyroid surgeries as well as FNA misleading.
Molecular inspired models for prediction and control of directional FSO/RF wireless networks
Llorca, Jaime; Milner, Stuart D.; Davis, Christopher C.
2010-08-01
Directional wireless networks using FSO and RF transmissions provide wireless backbone support for mobile communications in dynamic environments. The heterogeneous and dynamic nature of such networks challenges their robustness and requires self-organization mechanisms to assure end-to-end broadband connectivity. We developed a framework based on the definition of a potential energy function to characterize robustness in communication networks and the study of first and second order variations of the potential energy to provide prediction and control strategies for network performance optimization. In this paper, we present non-convex molecular potentials such as the Morse Potential, used to describe the potential energy of bonds within molecules, for the characterization of communication links in the presence of physical constraints such as the power available at the network nodes. The inclusion of the Morse Potential translates into adaptive control strategies where forces on network nodes drive the release, retention or reconfiguration of communication links for network performance optimization. Simulation results show the effectiveness of our self-organized control mechanism, where the physical topology reorganizes to maximize the number of source to destination communicating pairs. Molecular Normal Mode Analysis (NMA) techniques for assessing network performance degradation in dynamic networks are also presented. Preliminary results show correlation between peaks in the eigenvalues of the Hessian of the network potential and network degradation.
Mas, D. M.; Ahlfeld, D. P.
2004-05-01
Forecasting stream water quality is important for numerous aspects of resource protection and management. Fecal coliform and enteroccocus are primary indicator organisms used to assess potential pathogen contamination. Consequently, modeling the occurrence and concentration of fecal coliform and enterococcus is an important tool in watershed management. In addition, analyzing the relationship between model input and predicted indicator organisms is useful for elucidating possible sources of contamination and mechanisms of transport. While many process-based, statistical, and empirical models exist for water quality prediction, artificial neural network (ANN) models are increasingly being used for forecasting of water resources variables because ANNs are often capable of modeling complex systems for which behavioral rules are either unknown or difficult to simulate. The performance of ANNs compared to more established modeling approaches such as multiple linear regression (MLR) remains an importance research question. Data collected the U.S. Geological Survey in the lower Charles River in Massachusetts, USA in 1999-2000 was examined to determine correlation between various water quality constituents and indicator organisms and to explore the relationship between rainfall characteristics and indicator organism concentrations. Using the results of the statistical analysis to guide the selection of explanatory variables, MLR was performed to develop predictive equations for wet weather and dry weather conditions. The results show that the best-performing predictor variables are generally consistent for both indicator organisms considered. In addition, the regression equations show increasing indicator organism concentrations as a function of suspended sediment concentrations and length of time since last precipitation event, suggesting accumulation and wash off as a key mechanism of pathogen transport under wet weather conditions. This research also presents the
Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aminmohammad Saberian
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kyle A McQuisten
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Exogenous short interfering RNAs (siRNAs induce a gene knockdown effect in cells by interacting with naturally occurring RNA processing machinery. However not all siRNAs induce this effect equally. Several heterogeneous kinds of machine learning techniques and feature sets have been applied to modeling siRNAs and their abilities to induce knockdown. There is some growing agreement to which techniques produce maximally predictive models and yet there is little consensus for methods to compare among predictive models. Also, there are few comparative studies that address what the effect of choosing learning technique, feature set or cross validation approach has on finding and discriminating among predictive models.Three learning techniques were used to develop predictive models for effective siRNA sequences including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, General Linear Models (GLMs and Support Vector Machines (SVMs. Five feature mapping methods were also used to generate models of siRNA activities. The 2 factors of learning technique and feature mapping were evaluated by complete 3x5 factorial ANOVA. Overall, both learning techniques and feature mapping contributed significantly to the observed variance in predictive models, but to differing degrees for precision and accuracy as well as across different kinds and levels of model cross-validation.The methods presented here provide a robust statistical framework to compare among models developed under distinct learning techniques and feature sets for siRNAs. Further comparisons among current or future modeling approaches should apply these or other suitable statistically equivalent methods to critically evaluate the performance of proposed models. ANN and GLM techniques tend to be more sensitive to the inclusion of noisy features, but the SVM technique is more robust under large numbers of features for measures of model precision and accuracy. Features found to result in maximally predictive models are
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Na, Man Gyun; Kim, Jin Weon; Lim, Dong Hyuk
2007-01-01
A fuzzy neural network model is presented to predict residual stress for dissimilar metal welding under various welding conditions. The fuzzy neural network model, which consists of a fuzzy inference system and a neuronal training system, is optimized by a hybrid learning method that combines a genetic algorithm to optimize the membership function parameters and a least squares method to solve the consequent parameters. The data of finite element analysis are divided into four data groups, which are split according to two end-section constraints and two prediction paths. Four fuzzy neural network models were therefore applied to the numerical data obtained from the finite element analysis for the two end-section constraints and the two prediction paths. The fuzzy neural network models were trained with the aid of a data set prepared for training (training data), optimized by means of an optimization data set and verified by means of a test data set that was different (independent) from the training data and the optimization data. The accuracy of fuzzy neural network models is known to be sufficiently accurate for use in an integrity evaluation by predicting the residual stress of dissimilar metal welding zones
Research on the Wire Network Signal Prediction Based on the Improved NNARX Model
Zhang, Zipeng; Fan, Tao; Wang, Shuqing
It is difficult to obtain accurately the wire net signal of power system's high voltage power transmission lines in the process of monitoring and repairing. In order to solve this problem, the signal measured in remote substation or laboratory is employed to make multipoint prediction to gain the needed data. But, the obtained power grid frequency signal is delay. In order to solve the problem, an improved NNARX network which can predict frequency signal based on multi-point data collected by remote substation PMU is describes in this paper. As the error curved surface of the NNARX network is more complicated, this paper uses L-M algorithm to train the network. The result of the simulation shows that the NNARX network has preferable predication performance which provides accurate real time data for field testing and maintenance.
Thishya, Kalluri; Vattam, Kiran Kumar; Naushad, Shaik Mohammad; Raju, Shree Bhushan
2018-01-01
The objective of the current study was to explore the role of ABCB1 and CYP3A5 genetic polymorphisms in predicting the bioavailability of tacrolimus and the risk for post-transplant diabetes. Artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models were used to predict the bioavailability of tacrolimus and risk for post-transplant diabetes, respectively. The five-fold cross-validation of ANN model showed good correlation with the experimental data of bioavailability (r2 = 0.93–0.96). Younger age, male gender, optimal body mass index were shown to exhibit lower bioavailability of tacrolimus. ABCB1 1236 C>T and 2677G>T/A showed inverse association while CYP3A5*3 showed a positive association with the bioavailability of tacrolimus. Gender bias was observed in the association with ABCB1 3435 C>T polymorphism. CYP3A5*3 was shown to interact synergistically in increasing the bioavailability in combination with ABCB1 1236 TT or 2677GG genotypes. LR model showed an independent association of ABCB1 2677 G>T/A with post transplant diabetes (OR: 4.83, 95% CI: 1.22–19.03). Multifactor dimensionality reduction analysis (MDR) revealed that synergistic interactions between CYP3A5*3 and ABCB1 2677 G>T/A as the determinants of risk for post-transplant diabetes. To conclude, the ANN and MDR models explore both individual and synergistic effects of variables in modulating the bioavailability of tacrolimus and risk for post-transplant diabetes. PMID:29621269
Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P.
2012-09-01
The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)
Su, Ji Guo; Qi, Li Sheng; Li, Chun Hua; Zhu, Yan Ying; Du, Hui Jing; Hou, Yan Xue; Hao, Rui; Wang, Ji Hua
2014-08-01
Allostery is a rapid and efficient way in many biological processes to regulate protein functions, where binding of an effector at the allosteric site alters the activity and function at a distant active site. Allosteric regulation of protein biological functions provides a promising strategy for novel drug design. However, how to effectively identify the allosteric sites remains one of the major challenges for allosteric drug design. In the present work, a thermodynamic method based on the elastic network model was proposed to predict the allosteric sites on the protein surface. In our method, the thermodynamic coupling between the allosteric and active sites was considered, and then the allosteric sites were identified as those where the binding of an effector molecule induces a large change in the binding free energy of the protein with its ligand. Using the proposed method, two proteins, i.e., the 70 kD heat shock protein (Hsp70) and GluA2 alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole propionic acid (AMPA) receptor, were studied and the allosteric sites on the protein surface were successfully identified. The predicted results are consistent with the available experimental data, which indicates that our method is a simple yet effective approach for the identification of allosteric sites on proteins.
Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P. [Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)
2012-09-15
The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)
Random Network Models to Predict the Long-Term Impact of HPV Vaccination on Genital Warts
Díez-Domingo, Javier; Sánchez-Alonso, Víctor; Acedo, Luis; Villanueva-Oller, Javier
2017-01-01
The Human papillomaviruses (HPV) vaccine induces a herd immunity effect in genital warts when a large number of the population is vaccinated. This aspect should be taken into account when devising new vaccine strategies, like vaccination at older ages or male vaccination. Therefore, it is important to develop mathematical models with good predictive capacities. We devised a sexual contact network that was calibrated to simulate the Spanish epidemiology of different HPV genotypes. Through this model, we simulated the scenario that occurred in Australia in 2007, where 12–13 year-old girls were vaccinated with a three-dose schedule of a vaccine containing genotypes 6 and 11, which protect against genital warts, and also a catch-up program in women up to 26 years of age. Vaccine coverage were 73% in girls with three doses and with coverage rates decreasing with age until 52% for 20–26 year-olds. A fast 59% reduction in the genital warts diagnoses occurred in the model in the first years after the start of the program, similar to what was described in the literature. PMID:29035332
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Qamar, I.; Bayles, G.A.; Tierney, J.W.; Chiang, S.-H.; Klinzing, G.E.
1987-01-01
A three dimensional bond-flow correlated network model has been successfully used to calculate equilibrium desaturation curves for coal filter cakes. A simple cubic lattice with the pore sizes correlated in the direction of macroscopic flow is used as the network. A new method of pore volume assignment is presented in which the pore volume occupied by the large pores (which give rise to capillary pressures less than a calculated critical value) is assigned to the nodes and the rest is distributed to the bonds according to an experimentally determined micrographic pore size distribution. Equilibrium desaturation curves for -32 mesh, -200 mesh and -100 + 200 mesh coal cakes (Pittsburgh Seam coal), formed with distilled water have been calculated. A bond flow correlation factor, F/sub c/ is introduced to account for channeling of the displacing fluid through high volume, low resistance flow paths - a phenomenon which is displayed by many real systems. It is determined that a single value of 0.6 for F/sub c/ is required for -32 mesh and -200 mesh coals. However, for -100 + 200 mesh coal, where all small as well as large particles have been removed, a value of 1.0 is required. The results of six -32 mesh cakes formed with surfactants show that the effect of surfactants can be accounted for by modifying one of the model parameters, the entry diameter correction. A correlation is presented to estimate the modified correction using experimentally determined surface tension and contact angle values. Further, the predicted final saturations agree with the experimental values within an average absolute error of 5%. 16 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.
A Network-Based Model of Oncogenic Collaboration for Prediction of Drug Sensitivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ted G Laderas
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a multi-step process, involving the acquisition of multiple oncogenic mutations that transform cells, resulting in systemic dysregulation that enables proliferation, among other cancer hallmarks. High throughput omics techniques are used in precision medicine, allowing identification of these mutations with the goal of identifying treatments that target them. However, the multiplicity of oncogenes required for transformation, known as oncogenic collaboration, makes assigning effective treatments difficult. Motivated by this observation, we propose a new type of oncogenic collaboration where mutations in genes that interact with an oncogene may contribute to its dysregulation, a new genomic feature that we term surrogate oncogenes. By mapping mutations to a protein/protein interaction network, we can determine significance of the observed distribution using permutation-based methods. For a panel of 38 breast cancer cell lines, we identified significant surrogate oncogenes in oncogenes such as BRCA1 and ESR1. In addition, using Random Forest Classifiers, we show that these significant surrogate oncogenes predict drug sensitivity for 74 drugs in the breast cancer cell lines with a mean error rate of 30.9%. Additionally, we show that surrogate oncogenes are predictive of survival in patients. The surrogate oncogene framework incorporates unique or rare mutations on an individual level. Our model has the potential for integrating patient-unique mutations in predicting drug-sensitivity, suggesting a potential new direction in precision medicine, as well as a new approach for drug development. Additionally, we show the prevalence of significant surrogate oncogenes in multiple cancers within the Cancer Genome Atlas, suggesting that surrogate oncogenes may be a useful genomic feature for guiding pancancer analyses and assigning therapies across many tissue types.
Cascallar, Eduardo; Musso, Mariel; Kyndt, Eva; Dochy, Filip
2014-01-01
Two articles, Edelsbrunner and, Schneider (2013), and Nokelainen and Silander (2014) comment on Musso, Kyndt, Cascallar, and Dochy (2013). Several relevant issues are raised and some important clarifications are made in response to both commentaries. Predictive systems based on artificial neural networks continue to be the focus of current…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ramanpreet Kaur
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Intelligent prediction of neighboring node (k well defined neighbors as specified by the dht protocol dynamism is helpful to improve the resilience and can reduce the overhead associated with topology maintenance of structured overlay networks. The dynamic behavior of overlay nodes depends on many factors such as underlying user’s online behavior, geographical position, time of the day, day of the week etc. as reported in many applications. We can exploit these characteristics for efficient maintenance of structured overlay networks by implementing an intelligent predictive framework for setting stabilization parameters appropriately. Considering the fact that human driven behavior usually goes beyond intermittent availability patterns, we use a hybrid Neuro-fuzzy based predictor to enhance the accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we discuss our predictive stabilization approach, implement Neuro-fuzzy based prediction in MATLAB simulation and apply this predictive stabilization model in a chord based overlay network using OverSim as a simulation tool. The MATLAB simulation results present that the behavior of neighboring nodes is predictable to a large extent as indicated by the very small RMSE. The OverSim based simulation results also observe significant improvements in the performance of chord based overlay network in terms of lookup success ratio, lookup hop count and maintenance overhead as compared to periodic stabilization approach.
Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K.
2013-10-01
The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)
Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K. [Lloyd' s Register Consulting AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)
2013-10-15
The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)
Pinzón, César; Plazaola, Carlos; Banfield, Ilka; Fong, Amaly; Vega, Adán
2013-01-01
In order to achieve automation of the plate forming process by line heating, it is necessary to know in advance the deformation to be obtained under specific heating conditions. Currently, different methods exist to predict deformation, but these are limited to specific applications and most of them depend on the computational capacity so that only simple structures can be analyzed. In this paper, a neural network model that can accurately predict distortions produced during the plate forming...
Yang, Yang; Hu, Jun; Lv, Yingchun; Zhang, Mu
2013-01-01
As the tourism industry has gradually become the strategic mainstay industry of the national economy, the scope of the tourism discipline has developed rigorously. This paper makes a predictive study on the development of the scope of Guangdong provincial tourism discipline based on the artificial neural network BP model in order to find out how…
Ji, Yu; Sheng, Wanxing; Jin, Wei; Wu, Ming; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Feng
2018-02-01
A coordinated optimal control method of active and reactive power of distribution network with distributed PV cluster based on model predictive control is proposed in this paper. The method divides the control process into long-time scale optimal control and short-time scale optimal control with multi-step optimization. The models are transformed into a second-order cone programming problem due to the non-convex and nonlinear of the optimal models which are hard to be solved. An improved IEEE 33-bus distribution network system is used to analyse the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed control method
Stock market index prediction using neural networks
Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok
1994-03-01
A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li He
2014-01-01
Full Text Available For the purpose of improving the prediction of cancer prognosis in the clinical researches, various algorithms have been developed to construct the predictive models with the gene signatures detected by DNA microarrays. Due to the heterogeneity of the clinical samples, the list of differentially expressed genes (DEGs generated by the statistical methods or the machine learning algorithms often involves a number of false positive genes, which are not associated with the phenotypic differences between the compared clinical conditions, and subsequently impacts the reliability of the predictive models. In this study, we proposed a strategy, which combined the statistical algorithm with the gene-pathway bipartite networks, to generate the reliable lists of cancer-related DEGs and constructed the models by using support vector machine for predicting the prognosis of three types of cancers, namely, breast cancer, acute myeloma leukemia, and glioblastoma. Our results demonstrated that, combined with the gene-pathway bipartite networks, our proposed strategy can efficiently generate the reliable cancer-related DEG lists for constructing the predictive models. In addition, the model performance in the swap analysis was similar to that in the original analysis, indicating the robustness of the models in predicting the cancer outcomes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Prakash Maran
2013-09-01
Full Text Available In this study, a comparative approach was made between artificial neural network (ANN and response surface methodology (RSM to predict the mass transfer parameters of osmotic dehydration of papaya. The effects of process variables such as temperature, osmotic solution concentration and agitation speed on water loss, weight reduction, and solid gain during osmotic dehydration were investigated using a three-level three-factor Box-Behnken experimental design. Same design was utilized to train a feed-forward multilayered perceptron (MLP ANN with back-propagation algorithm. The predictive capabilities of the two methodologies were compared in terms of root mean square error (RMSE, mean absolute error (MAE, standard error of prediction (SEP, model predictive error (MPE, chi square statistic (χ2, and coefficient of determination (R2 based on the validation data set. The results showed that properly trained ANN model is found to be more accurate in prediction as compared to RSM model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grosso Juan M.
2016-09-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a reliability-based economic model predictive control (MPC strategy for the management of generalised flow-based networks, integrating some ideas on network service reliability, dynamic safety stock planning, and degradation of equipment health. The proposed strategy is based on a single-layer economic optimisation problem with dynamic constraints, which includes two enhancements with respect to existing approaches. The first enhancement considers chance-constraint programming to compute an optimal inventory replenishment policy based on a desired risk acceptability level, leading to dynamical allocation of safety stocks in flow-based networks to satisfy non-stationary flow demands. The second enhancement computes a smart distribution of the control effort and maximises actuators’ availability by estimating their degradation and reliability. The proposed approach is illustrated with an application of water transport networks using the Barcelona network as the case study considered.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li Yingwei [Faculty of Metallurgical and Energy Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China); Key Laboratory of Unconventional Metallurgy, Ministry of Education, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China); Peng Jinhui, E-mail: jhpeng@kmust.edu.c [Faculty of Metallurgical and Energy Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China); Key Laboratory of Unconventional Metallurgy, Ministry of Education, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China); Liu Bingguo [Faculty of Metallurgical and Energy Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China); Key Laboratory of Unconventional Metallurgy, Ministry of Education, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China); Li Wei [Key Laboratory of Unconventional Metallurgy, Ministry of Education, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China); Huang Daifu [No. 272 Nuclear Industry Factory, China National Nuclear Corporation, Hengyang, Hunan Province 421002 (China); Zhang Libo [Faculty of Metallurgical and Energy Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China); Key Laboratory of Unconventional Metallurgy, Ministry of Education, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650093 (China)
2011-05-15
Research highlights: The incremental improved Back-Propagation neural network prediction model using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on optimizing theory is put forward. The prediction model of the nonlinear system is built, which can effectively predict the experiment of microwave calcining of ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC). AUC can accept the microwave energy and microwave heating can quickly decompose AUC. In the experiment of microwave calcining of AUC, the contents of U and U{sup 4+} increased with increasing of microwave power and irradiation time, and decreased with increasing of the material average depth. - Abstract: The incremental improved Back-Propagation (BP) neural network prediction model was put forward, which was very useful in overcoming the problems, such as long testing cycle, high testing quantity, difficulty of optimization for process parameters, many training data probably were offered by the way of increment batch and the limitation of the system memory could make the training data infeasible, which existed in the process of calcinations for ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC) by microwave heating. The prediction model of the nonlinear system was built, which could effectively predict the experiment of microwave calcining of AUC. The predicted results indicated that the contents of U and U{sup 4+} were increased with increasing of microwave power and irradiation time, and decreased with increasing of the material average depth.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Yingwei; Peng Jinhui; Liu Bingguo; Li Wei; Huang Daifu; Zhang Libo
2011-01-01
Research highlights: → The incremental improved Back-Propagation neural network prediction model using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on optimizing theory is put forward. → The prediction model of the nonlinear system is built, which can effectively predict the experiment of microwave calcining of ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC). → AUC can accept the microwave energy and microwave heating can quickly decompose AUC. → In the experiment of microwave calcining of AUC, the contents of U and U 4+ increased with increasing of microwave power and irradiation time, and decreased with increasing of the material average depth. - Abstract: The incremental improved Back-Propagation (BP) neural network prediction model was put forward, which was very useful in overcoming the problems, such as long testing cycle, high testing quantity, difficulty of optimization for process parameters, many training data probably were offered by the way of increment batch and the limitation of the system memory could make the training data infeasible, which existed in the process of calcinations for ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC) by microwave heating. The prediction model of the nonlinear system was built, which could effectively predict the experiment of microwave calcining of AUC. The predicted results indicated that the contents of U and U 4+ were increased with increasing of microwave power and irradiation time, and decreased with increasing of the material average depth.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Kasper Winther
Three main topics are presented in this thesis. The first and largest topic concerns network modelling of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI). In particular nonparametric Bayesian methods are used to model brain networks derived from resting state f...... for their ability to reproduce node clustering and predict unseen data. Comparing the models on whole brain networks, BCD and IRM showed better reproducibility and predictability than IDM, suggesting that resting state networks exhibit community structure. This also points to the importance of using models, which...... allow for complex interactions between all pairs of clusters. In addition, it is demonstrated how the IRM can be used for segmenting brain structures into functionally coherent clusters. A new nonparametric Bayesian network model is presented. The model builds upon the IRM and can be used to infer...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachid Darnag
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Support vector machines (SVM represent one of the most promising Machine Learning (ML tools that can be applied to develop a predictive quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR models using molecular descriptors. Multiple linear regression (MLR and artificial neural networks (ANNs were also utilized to construct quantitative linear and non linear models to compare with the results obtained by SVM. The prediction results are in good agreement with the experimental value of HIV activity; also, the results reveal the superiority of the SVM over MLR and ANN model. The contribution of each descriptor to the structure–activity relationships was evaluated.
Sun, Xiangqing; Elston, Robert C; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S; Falk, Gary W; Grady, William M; Faulx, Ashley; Mittal, Sumeet K; Canto, Marcia; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Wang, Jean S; Iyer, Prasad G; Abrams, Julian A; Tian, Ye D; Willis, Joseph E; Guda, Kishore; Markowitz, Sanford D; Chandar, Apoorva; Warfe, James M; Brock, Wendy; Chak, Amitabh
2016-05-01
Barrett's esophagus is often asymptomatic and only a small portion of Barrett's esophagus patients are currently diagnosed and under surveillance. Therefore, it is important to develop risk prediction models to identify high-risk individuals with Barrett's esophagus. Familial aggregation of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma, and the increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma for individuals with a family history, raise the necessity of including genetic factors in the prediction model. Methods to determine risk prediction models using both risk covariates and ascertained family data are not well developed. We developed a Barrett's Esophagus Translational Research Network (BETRNet) risk prediction model from 787 singly ascertained Barrett's esophagus pedigrees and 92 multiplex Barrett's esophagus pedigrees, fitting a multivariate logistic model that incorporates family history and clinical risk factors. The eight risk factors, age, sex, education level, parental status, smoking, heartburn frequency, regurgitation frequency, and use of acid suppressant, were included in the model. The prediction accuracy was evaluated on the training dataset and an independent validation dataset of 643 multiplex Barrett's esophagus pedigrees. Our results indicate family information helps to predict Barrett's esophagus risk, and predicting in families improves both prediction calibration and discrimination accuracy. Our model can predict Barrett's esophagus risk for anyone with family members known to have, or not have, had Barrett's esophagus. It can predict risk for unrelated individuals without knowing any relatives' information. Our prediction model will shed light on effectively identifying high-risk individuals for Barrett's esophagus screening and surveillance, consequently allowing intervention at an early stage, and reducing mortality from esophageal adenocarcinoma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(5); 727-35. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Duchesne, Marc A. [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Macchi, Arturo [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); Lu, Dennis Y.; Hughes, Robin W.; McCalden, David; Anthony, Edward J. [CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)
2010-08-15
Threshold slag viscosity heuristics are often used for the initial assessment of coal gasification projects. Slag viscosity predictions are also required for advanced combustion and gasification models. Due to unsatisfactory performance of theoretical equations, an artificial neural network model was developed to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions. This model outperforms other slag viscosity models, resulting in an average error factor of 5.05 which is lower than the best obtained with other available models. Genesee coal ash viscosity predictions were made to investigate the effect of adding Canadian limestone and dolomite. The results indicate that magnesium in the fluxing agent provides a greater viscosity reduction than calcium for the threshold slag tapping temperature range. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zare, Mansour; Vahdati Khaki, Jalil
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► ANNs and ANFIS fairly predicted UTS and YS of warm compacted molybdenum prealloy. ► Effects of composition, temperature, compaction pressure on output were studied. ► ANFIS model was in better agreement with experimental data from published article. ► Sintering temperature had the most significant effect on UTS and YS. -- Abstract: Predictive models using artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) were successfully developed to predict yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of warm compacted 0.85 wt.% molybdenum prealloy samples. To construct these models, 48 different experimental data were gathered from the literature. A portion of the data set was randomly chosen to train both ANN with back propagation (BP) learning algorithm and ANFIS model with Gaussian membership function and the rest was implemented to verify the performance of the trained network against the unseen data. The generalization capability of the networks was also evaluated by applying new input data within the domain covered by the training pattern. To compare the obtained results, coefficient of determination (R 2 ), root mean squared error (RMSE) and average absolute error (AAE) indexes were chosen and calculated for both of the models. The results showed that artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy system were both potentially strong for prediction of the mechanical properties of warm compacted 0.85 wt.% molybdenum prealloy; however, the proposed ANFIS showed better performance than the ANN model. Also, the ANFIS model was subjected to a sensitivity analysis to find the significant inputs affecting mechanical properties of the samples.
A neural network model to predict lung radiation-induced pneumonitis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen Shifeng; Zhou Sumin; Zhang Junan; Yin Fangfang; Marks, Lawrence B.; Das, Shiva K.
2007-01-01
A feed-forward neural network was investigated to predict the occurrence of lung radiation-induced Grade 2+ pneumonitis. The database consisted of 235 patients with lung cancer treated using radiotherapy, of whom 34 were diagnosed with Grade 2+ pneumonitis at follow-up. The network was constructed using an algorithm that alternately grew and pruned it, starting from the smallest possible network, until a satisfactory solution was found. The weights and biases of the network were computed using the error back-propagation approach. Momentum and variable leaning techniques were used to speed convergence. Using the growing/pruning approach, the network selected features from 66 dose and 27 non-dose variables. During network training, the 235 patients were randomly split into ten groups of approximately equal size. Eight groups were used to train the network, one group was used for early stopping training to prevent overfitting, and the remaining group was used as a test to measure the generalization capability of the network (cross-validation). Using this methodology, each of the ten groups was considered, in turn, as the test group (ten-fold cross-validation). For the optimized network constructed with input features selected from dose and non-dose variables, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve for cross-validated testing was 0.76 (sensitivity: 0.68, specificity: 0.69). For the optimized network constructed with input features selected only from dose variables, the area under the ROC curve for cross-validation was 0.67 (sensitivity: 0.53, specificity: 0.69). The difference between these two areas was statistically significant (p=0.020), indicating that the addition of non-dose features can significantly improve the generalization capability of the network. A network for prospective testing was constructed with input features selected from dose and non-dose variables (all data were used for training). The optimized network architecture
Saro, Lee; Woo, Jeon Seong; Kwan-Young, Oh; Moung-Jin, Lee
2016-02-01
The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs) followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS). These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50%) and a test set (50%). A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10%) was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%). Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, `slope' yielded the highest weight value (1.330), and `aspect' yielded the lowest value (1.000). This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saro Lee
2016-02-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS. These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50% and a test set (50%. A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10% was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%. Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, ‘slope’ yielded the highest weight value (1.330, and ‘aspect’ yielded the lowest value (1.000. This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.
Uzun, Harun; Yıldız, Zeynep; Goldfarb, Jillian L; Ceylan, Selim
2017-06-01
As biomass becomes more integrated into our energy feedstocks, the ability to predict its combustion enthalpies from routine data such as carbon, ash, and moisture content enables rapid decisions about utilization. The present work constructs a novel artificial neural network model with a 3-3-1 tangent sigmoid architecture to predict biomasses' higher heating values from only their proximate analyses, requiring minimal specificity as compared to models based on elemental composition. The model presented has a considerably higher correlation coefficient (0.963) and lower root mean square (0.375), mean absolute (0.328), and mean bias errors (0.010) than other models presented in the literature which, at least when applied to the present data set, tend to under-predict the combustion enthalpy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tavakoli, M. M.; Assadian, N.
2018-03-01
The problem of controlling an all-thruster spacecraft in the coupled translational-rotational motion in presence of actuators fault and/or failure is investigated in this paper. The nonlinear model predictive control approach is used because of its ability to predict the future behavior of the system. The fault/failure of the thrusters changes the mapping between the commanded forces to the thrusters and actual force/torque generated by the thruster system. Thus, the basic six degree-of-freedom kinetic equations are separated from this mapping and a set of neural networks are trained off-line to learn the kinetic equations. Then, two neural networks are attached to these trained networks in order to learn the thruster commands to force/torque mappings on-line. Different off-nominal conditions are modeled so that neural networks can detect any failure and fault, including scale factor and misalignment of thrusters. A simple model of the spacecraft relative motion is used in MPC to decrease the computational burden. However, a precise model by the means of orbit propagation including different types of perturbation is utilized to evaluate the usefulness of the proposed approach in actual conditions. The numerical simulation shows that this method can successfully control the all-thruster spacecraft with ON-OFF thrusters in different combinations of thruster fault and/or failure.
Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.
2013-05-01
Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived
Park, Seungman
2017-09-01
Interstitial flow (IF) is a creeping flow through the interstitial space of the extracellular matrix (ECM). IF plays a key role in diverse biological functions, such as tissue homeostasis, cell function and behavior. Currently, most studies that have characterized IF have focused on the permeability of ECM or shear stress distribution on the cells, but less is known about the prediction of shear stress on the individual fibers or fiber networks despite its significance in the alignment of matrix fibers and cells observed in fibrotic or wound tissues. In this study, I developed a computational model to predict shear stress for different structured fibrous networks. To generate isotropic models, a random growth algorithm and a second-order orientation tensor were employed. Then, a three-dimensional (3D) solid model was created using computer-aided design (CAD) software for the aligned models (i.e., parallel, perpendicular and cubic models). Subsequently, a tetrahedral unstructured mesh was generated and flow solutions were calculated by solving equations for mass and momentum conservation for all models. Through the flow solutions, I estimated permeability using Darcy's law. Average shear stress (ASS) on the fibers was calculated by averaging the wall shear stress of the fibers. By using nonlinear surface fitting of permeability, viscosity, velocity, porosity and ASS, I devised new computational models. Overall, the developed models showed that higher porosity induced higher permeability, as previous empirical and theoretical models have shown. For comparison of the permeability, the present computational models were matched well with previous models, which justify our computational approach. ASS tended to increase linearly with respect to inlet velocity and dynamic viscosity, whereas permeability was almost the same. Finally, the developed model nicely predicted the ASS values that had been directly estimated from computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The present
Yan, Zheng; Wang, Jun
2014-03-01
This paper presents a neural network approach to robust model predictive control (MPC) for constrained discrete-time nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics affected by bounded uncertainties. The exact nonlinear model of underlying process is not precisely known, but a partially known nominal model is available. This partially known nonlinear model is first decomposed to an affine term plus an unknown high-order term via Jacobian linearization. The linearization residue combined with unmodeled dynamics is then modeled using an extreme learning machine via supervised learning. The minimax methodology is exploited to deal with bounded uncertainties. The minimax optimization problem is reformulated as a convex minimization problem and is iteratively solved by a two-layer recurrent neural network. The proposed neurodynamic approach to nonlinear MPC improves the computational efficiency and sheds a light for real-time implementability of MPC technology. Simulation results are provided to substantiate the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed approach.
Zhou, Jingwen; Xu, Zhenghong; Chen, Shouwen
2013-04-01
The thuringiensin abiotic degradation processes in aqueous solution under different conditions, with a pH range of 5.0-9.0 and a temperature range of 10-40°C, were systematically investigated by an exponential decay model and a radius basis function (RBF) neural network model, respectively. The half-lives of thuringiensin calculated by the exponential decay model ranged from 2.72 d to 16.19 d under the different conditions mentioned above. Furthermore, an RBF model with accuracy of 0.1 and SPREAD value 5 was employed to model the degradation processes. The results showed that the model could simulate and predict the degradation processes well. Both the half-lives and the prediction data showed that thuringiensin was an easily degradable antibiotic, which could be an important factor in the evaluation of its safety. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Max, G
2011-01-01
Traffic models in computer networks can be described as a complicated system. These systems show non-linear features and to simulate behaviours of these systems are also difficult. Before implementing network equipments users wants to know capability of their computer network. They do not want the servers to be overloaded during temporary traffic peaks when more requests arrive than the server is designed for. As a starting point for our study a non-linear system model of network traffic is established to exam behaviour of the network planned. The paper presents setting up a non-linear simulation model that helps us to observe dataflow problems of the networks. This simple model captures the relationship between the competing traffic and the input and output dataflow. In this paper, we also focus on measuring the bottleneck of the network, which was defined as the difference between the link capacity and the competing traffic volume on the link that limits end-to-end throughput. We validate the model using measurements on a working network. The results show that the initial model estimates well main behaviours and critical parameters of the network. Based on this study, we propose to develop a new algorithm, which experimentally determines and predict the available parameters of the network modelled.
Optimization of a neural network model for signal-to-background prediction in gamma-ray spectrometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dragovic, S.; Onjia, A. . E-mail address of corresponding author: sdragovic@inep.co.yu; Dragovic, S.)
2005-01-01
The artificial neural network (ANN) model was optimized for the prediction of signal-to-background (SBR) ratio as a function of the measurement time in gamma-ray spectrometry. The network parameters: learning rate (α), momentum (μ), number of epochs (E) and number of nodes in hidden layer (N) were optimized simultaneously employing variable-size simplex method. The most accurate model with the root mean square (RMS) error of 0.073 was obtained using ANN with online backpropagation randomized (OBPR) algorithm with α = 0.27, μ 0.36, E = 14800 and N = 9. Most of the predicted and experimental SBR values for the eight radionuclides ( 226 Ra, 214 Bi, 235 U, 40 K, 232 Th, 134 Cs, 137 Cs and 7 Be), studied in this work, reasonably agreed to within 15 %, which was satisfactory accuracy. (author)
Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction
Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin
2012-01-01
The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…
Link prediction in weighted networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wind, David Kofoed; Mørup, Morten
2012-01-01
Many complex networks feature relations with weight information. Some models utilize this information while other ignore the weight information when inferring the structure. In this paper we investigate if edge-weights when modeling real networks, carry important information about the network...... is to infer presence of edges, but that simpler models are better at inferring the actual weights....
Cortical Network Models of Firing Rates in the Resting and Active States Predict BOLD Responses.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maxwell R Bennett
Full Text Available Measurements of blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD signals have produced some surprising observations. One is that their amplitude is proportional to the entire activity in a region of interest and not just the fluctuations in this activity. Another is that during sleep and anesthesia the average BOLD correlations between regions of interest decline as the activity declines. Mechanistic explanations of these phenomena are described here using a cortical network model consisting of modules with excitatory and inhibitory neurons, taken as regions of cortical interest, each receiving excitatory inputs from outside the network, taken as subcortical driving inputs in addition to extrinsic (intermodular connections, such as provided by associational fibers. The model shows that the standard deviation of the firing rate is proportional to the mean frequency of the firing when the extrinsic connections are decreased, so that the mean BOLD signal is proportional to both as is observed experimentally. The model also shows that if these extrinsic connections are decreased or the frequency of firing reaching the network from the subcortical driving inputs is decreased, or both decline, there is a decrease in the mean firing rate in the modules accompanied by decreases in the mean BOLD correlations between the modules, consistent with the observed changes during NREM sleep and under anesthesia. Finally, the model explains why a transient increase in the BOLD signal in a cortical area, due to a transient subcortical input, gives rises to responses throughout the cortex as observed, with these responses mediated by the extrinsic (intermodular connections.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Avril Challoner
2015-12-01
Full Text Available NO2 and particulate matter are the air pollutants of most concern in Ireland, with possible links to the higher respiratory and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity rates found in the country compared to the rest of Europe. Currently, air quality limits in Europe only cover outdoor environments yet the quality of indoor air is an essential determinant of a person’s well-being, especially since the average person spends more than 90% of their time indoors. The modelling conducted in this research aims to provide a framework for epidemiological studies by the use of publically available data from fixed outdoor monitoring stations to predict indoor air quality more accurately. Predictions are made using two modelling techniques, the Personal-exposure Activity Location Model (PALM, to predict outdoor air quality at a particular building, and Artificial Neural Networks, to model the indoor/outdoor relationship of the building. This joint approach has been used to predict indoor air concentrations for three inner city commercial buildings in Dublin, where parallel indoor and outdoor diurnal monitoring had been carried out on site. This modelling methodology has been shown to provide reasonable predictions of average NO2 indoor air quality compared to the monitored data, but did not perform well in the prediction of indoor PM2.5 concentrations. Hence, this approach could be used to determine NO2 exposures more rigorously of those who work and/or live in the city centre, which can then be linked to potential health impacts.
Challoner, Avril; Pilla, Francesco; Gill, Laurence
2015-12-01
NO₂ and particulate matter are the air pollutants of most concern in Ireland, with possible links to the higher respiratory and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity rates found in the country compared to the rest of Europe. Currently, air quality limits in Europe only cover outdoor environments yet the quality of indoor air is an essential determinant of a person's well-being, especially since the average person spends more than 90% of their time indoors. The modelling conducted in this research aims to provide a framework for epidemiological studies by the use of publically available data from fixed outdoor monitoring stations to predict indoor air quality more accurately. Predictions are made using two modelling techniques, the Personal-exposure Activity Location Model (PALM), to predict outdoor air quality at a particular building, and Artificial Neural Networks, to model the indoor/outdoor relationship of the building. This joint approach has been used to predict indoor air concentrations for three inner city commercial buildings in Dublin, where parallel indoor and outdoor diurnal monitoring had been carried out on site. This modelling methodology has been shown to provide reasonable predictions of average NO₂ indoor air quality compared to the monitored data, but did not perform well in the prediction of indoor PM2.5 concentrations. Hence, this approach could be used to determine NO₂ exposures more rigorously of those who work and/or live in the city centre, which can then be linked to potential health impacts.
Stamenkovic, Dragan D.; Popovic, Vladimir M.
2015-02-01
Warranty is a powerful marketing tool, but it always involves additional costs to the manufacturer. In order to reduce these costs and make use of warranty's marketing potential, the manufacturer needs to master the techniques for warranty cost prediction according to the reliability characteristics of the product. In this paper a combination free replacement and pro rata warranty policy is analysed as warranty model for one type of light bulbs. Since operating conditions have a great impact on product reliability, they need to be considered in such analysis. A neural network model is used to predict light bulb reliability characteristics based on the data from the tests of light bulbs in various operating conditions. Compared with a linear regression model used in the literature for similar tasks, the neural network model proved to be a more accurate method for such prediction. Reliability parameters obtained in this way are later used in Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of times to failure needed for warranty cost calculation. The results of the analysis make possible for the manufacturer to choose the optimal warranty policy based on expected product operating conditions. In such a way, the manufacturer can lower the costs and increase the profit.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsarouchas, D.; Markaki, A.E.
2011-01-01
This paper proposes a method for extracting reliable architectural characteristics from complex porous structures using micro-computed tomography (μCT) images. The work focuses on a highly porous material composed of a network of fibres bonded together. The segmentation process, allowing separation of the fibres from the remainder of the image, is the most critical step in constructing an accurate representation of the network architecture. Segmentation methods, based on local and global thresholding, were investigated and evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the architectural parameters they yielded, such as the fibre orientation and segment length (sections between joints) distributions and the number of inter-fibre crossings. To improve segmentation accuracy, a deconvolution algorithm was proposed to restore the original images. The efficacy of the proposed method was verified by comparing μCT network architectural characteristics with those obtained using high resolution CT scans (nanoCT). The results indicate that this approach resolves the architecture of these complex networks and produces results approaching the quality of nanoCT scans. The extracted architectural parameters were used in conjunction with an affine analytical model to predict the axial and transverse stiffnesses of the fibre network. Transverse stiffness predictions were compared with experimentally measured values obtained by vibration testing.
Strahm, Ivo; Munz, Nicole; Braun, Christian; Gälli, René; Leu, Christian; Stamm, Christian
2014-05-01
Water quality in the Swiss river network is affected by many micropollutants from a variety of diffuse sources. This study compares, for the first time, in a comprehensive manner the diffuse sources and the substance groups that contribute the most to water contamination in Swiss streams and highlights the major regions for water pollution. For this a simple but comprehensive model was developed to estimate emission from diffuse sources for the entire Swiss river network of 65 000 km. Based on emission factors the model calculates catchment specific losses to streams for more than 15 diffuse sources (such as crop lands, grassland, vineyards, fruit orchards, roads, railways, facades, roofs, green space in urban areas, landfills, etc.) and more than 130 different substances from 5 different substance groups (pesticides, biocides, heavy metals, human drugs, animal drugs). For more than 180 000 stream sections estimates of mean annual pollutant loads and mean annual concentration levels were modeled. This data was validated with a set of monitoring data and evaluated based on annual average environmental quality standards (AA-EQS). Model validation showed that the estimated mean annual concentration levels are within the range of measured data. Therefore simulations were considered as adequately robust for identifying the major sources of diffuse pollution. The analysis depicted that in Switzerland widespread pollution of streams can be expected. Along more than 18 000 km of the river network one or more simulated substances has a concentration exceeding the AA-EQS. In single stream sections it could be more than 50 different substances. Moreover, the simulations showed that in two-thirds of small streams (Strahler order 1 and 2) at least one AA-EQS is always exceeded. The highest number of substances exceeding the AA-EQS are in areas with large fractions of arable cropping, vineyards and fruit orchards. Urban areas are also of concern even without considering
A NEW PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR CONGESTION CONTROL IN WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORKS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
NAJME TANZADE PANAH
2017-06-01
Full Text Available With the increase of various applications in the domain of wireless sensor networks, the tendency to use wireless sensors has gradually increased in different applications. On the other hand, diverse traffic with different priorities generated by these sensors requires providing adaptive quality of services based on users` needs. In this paper, a congestion control predictor model is proposed for wireless sensor networks, which considers parameters like network energy consumption, packet loss rate and percentage of delivered high and medium priority packets to the destination. This method consists of congestion prevention, congestion control, and energy control plans using shortest path selection algorithm. In the congestion prevention plan, congestion is prevented by investigating the queues length. In the congestion control plan, the congestion is controlled by reducing the transmission rate. Finally, the energy control plan aims to partially balance the energy of nodes to prevent network failures due to node energy outage. Simulation results indicated that the proposed method has a higher efficiency regarding the aforementioned parameters. In addition, comparisons with other well-known methods showed the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Stanke, J.; Trauth, D.; Feuerhack, A.; Klocke, F.
2017-09-01
Die roll is a morphological feature of fine blanked sheared edges. The die roll reduces the functional part of the sheared edge. To compensate for the die roll thicker sheet metal strips and secondary machining must be used. However, in order to avoid this, the influence of various fine blanking process parameters on the die roll has been experimentally and numerically studied, but there is still a lack of knowledge on the effects of some factors and especially factor interactions on the die roll. Recent changes in the field of artificial intelligence motivate the hybrid use of the finite element method and artificial neural networks to account for these non-considered parameters. Therefore, a set of simulations using a validated finite element model of fine blanking is firstly used to train an artificial neural network. Then the artificial neural network is trained with thousands of experimental trials. Thus, the objective of this contribution is to develop an artificial neural network that reliably predicts the die roll. Therefore, in this contribution, the setup of a fully parameterized 2D FE model is presented that will be used for batch training of an artificial neural network. The FE model enables an automatic variation of the edge radii of blank punch and die plate, the counter and blank holder force, the sheet metal thickness and part diameter, V-ring height and position, cutting velocity as well as material parameters covered by the Hensel-Spittel model for 16MnCr5 (1.7131, AISI/SAE 5115). The FE model is validated using experimental trails. The results of this contribution is a FE model suitable to perform 9.623 simulations and to pass the simulated die roll width and height automatically to an artificial neural network.
Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability
Johnson, Pontus; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Valja, Margus; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Magnusson, Christer; Ladhe, Tobias; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Oude Luttighuis, P.H.W.M.; Folmer, Erwin Johan Albert; Bosems, S.
In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly
Model Predictive Control for the acquisition queue and related queueing networks
Leeuwaarden, van J.S.H.; Lefeber, A.A.J.; Nazarathy, J.; Rooda, J.E.
2010-01-01
Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a well established method in control theory and engineering practice. It is often the method of choice for systems that need to be controlled in view of constraints. The main idea of MPC is to solve an optimization problem over a given time horizon at each control
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dong, Jing [ORNL; Mahmassani, Hani S. [Northwestern University, Evanston
2011-01-01
This paper proposes a methodology to produce random flow breakdown endogenously in a mesoscopic operational model, by capturing breakdown probability and duration. Based on previous research findings that probability of flow breakdown can be represented as a function of flow rate and the duration can be characterized by a hazard model. By generating random flow breakdown at various levels and capturing the traffic characteristics at the onset of the breakdown, the stochastic network simulation model provides a tool for evaluating travel time variability. The proposed model can be used for (1) providing reliability related traveler information; (2) designing ITS (intelligent transportation systems) strategies to improve reliability; and (3) evaluating reliability-related performance measures of the system.
Multi-agent model predictive control for transportation networks : Serial versus parallel schemes
Negenborn, R.R.; De Schutter, B.; Hellendoorn, J.
2006-01-01
We consider the control of large-scale transportation networks, like road traffic networks, power distribution networks, water distribution networks, etc. Control of these networks is often not possible from a single point by a single intelligent control agent; instead control has to be performed
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Volpe, V.; Stefanon, B.; Moscardini, S.; Susmel, P.; Gruber, L.
1999-01-01
A Neural Network Model to predict the urinary excretion of purine derivative nitrogen (UPDN) in cows is presented. The input variables of the model are dry matter intake (DMINT), NDF intake (NDFINT), total soluble nitrogen (SP), total soluble non-protein dry matter (SNPDM), total degradable nitrogen (DCP), total degradable non-protein dry matter (DNPDM), hourly available CP in the rumen (HACP), hourly available non-protein dry matter (HANPDM), three different gross indexes of synchronization, namely SYNCA (SP/SNPDM), SYNCB (DCP/DNPDM) and SYNCK (HACP/HANPDM) and two variables describing some metabolic aspects of purine derivative excretion such as live weight of the cow (LW) and milk yield (MILKY). The Model developed uses the Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) utility, with 13 nodes in the input layer, 8 nodes in the hidden layer and 1 node in the output layer. The Model performances have been tested over 24 observations not previously used to train the model. When compared to a linear regression approach, the Neural Network model showed better performance but under predicted the daily excretion of UPDN for values around 20 g/day. When evaluated in terms of behaviour and depicted scenario the model responded to changes of live weight (LW) and milk yield (MILKY) and to modifications of the pattern of nutrients supplied to rumen microbes. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Volpe, V; Stefanon, B; Moscardini, S; Susmel, P [University of Udine, Department of Animal Production Science, Pagnacco, UD (Italy); Gruber, L [Federal Research Institute for Agriculture in the Alpine Regions, Irdning (Austria)
1999-06-01
A Neural Network Model to predict the urinary excretion of purine derivative nitrogen (UPDN) in cows is presented. The input variables of the model are dry matter intake (DMINT), NDF intake (NDFINT), total soluble nitrogen (SP), total soluble non-protein dry matter (SNPDM), total degradable nitrogen (DCP), total degradable non-protein dry matter (DNPDM), hourly available CP in the rumen (HACP), hourly available non-protein dry matter (HANPDM), three different gross indexes of synchronization, namely SYNCA (SP/SNPDM), SYNCB (DCP/DNPDM) and SYNCK (HACP/HANPDM) and two variables describing some metabolic aspects of purine derivative excretion such as live weight of the cow (LW) and milk yield (MILKY). The Model developed uses the Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) utility, with 13 nodes in the input layer, 8 nodes in the hidden layer and 1 node in the output layer. The Model performances have been tested over 24 observations not previously used to train the model. When compared to a linear regression approach, the Neural Network model showed better performance but under predicted the daily excretion of UPDN for values around 20 g/day. When evaluated in terms of behaviour and depicted scenario the model responded to changes of live weight (LW) and milk yield (MILKY) and to modifications of the pattern of nutrients supplied to rumen microbes. (author) 16 refs, 11 figs, 1 tab
Ajmani, Subhash; Rogers, Stephen C; Barley, Mark H; Burgess, Andrew N; Livingstone, David J
2010-09-17
In our earlier work, we have demonstrated that it is possible to characterize binary mixtures using single component descriptors by applying various mixing rules. We also showed that these methods were successful in building predictive QSPR models to study various mixture properties of interest. Here in, we developed a QSPR model of an excess thermodynamic property of binary mixtures i.e. excess molar volume (V(E) ). In the present study, we use a set of mixture descriptors which we earlier designed to specifically account for intermolecular interactions between the components of a mixture and applied successfully to the prediction of infinite-dilution activity coefficients using neural networks (part 1 of this series). We obtain a significant QSPR model for the prediction of excess molar volume (V(E) ) using consensus neural networks and five mixture descriptors. We find that hydrogen bond and thermodynamic descriptors are the most important in determining excess molar volume (V(E) ), which is in line with the theory of intermolecular forces governing excess mixture properties. The results also suggest that the mixture descriptors utilized herein may be sufficient to model a wide variety of properties of binary and possibly even more complex mixtures. Copyright © 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hon-Yi Shi
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since most published articles comparing the performance of artificial neural network (ANN models and logistic regression (LR models for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC outcomes used only a single dataset, the essential issue of internal validity (reproducibility of the models has not been addressed. The study purposes to validate the use of ANN model for predicting in-hospital mortality in HCC surgery patients in Taiwan and to compare the predictive accuracy of ANN with that of LR model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients who underwent a HCC surgery during the period from 1998 to 2009 were included in the study. This study retrospectively compared 1,000 pairs of LR and ANN models based on initial clinical data for 22,926 HCC surgery patients. For each pair of ANN and LR models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and the relative importance of variables. Compared to the LR models, the ANN models had a better accuracy rate in 97.28% of cases, a better H-L statistic in 41.18% of cases, and a better AUROC curve in 84.67% of cases. Surgeon volume was the most influential (sensitive parameter affecting in-hospital mortality followed by age and lengths of stay. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In comparison with the conventional LR model, the ANN model in the study was more accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.
Modelling of hardness prediction of magnesium alloys using artificial neural networks applications
L.A. Dobrzański; T. Tański; J. Trzaska; L. Čížek
2008-01-01
Purpose: In the following paper there have been presented the optimisation of heat treatment condition and structure of the MCMgAl12Zn1, MCMgAl9Zn1, MCMgAl6Zn1, MCMgAl3Zn1 magnesium cast alloy as-cast state and after a heat treatment.Design/methodology/approach: Working out of a neural network model for simulation of influence of temperature, solution heat treatment and ageing time and aluminium content on hardness of the analyzed magnesium cast alloys.Findings: The different heat treatment k...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanabe, Akira; Yamamoto, Toru; Shinfuku, Kimihiro; Nakamae, Takuji; Nishide, Fusayo.
1995-01-01
Previously a two-layered neural network model was developed to predict the relation between fissile enrichment of each fuel rod and local power distribution in a BWR fuel bundle. This model was obtained intuitively based on 33 patterns of training signals after an intensive survey of the models. Recently, a learning algorithm with forgetting was reported to simplify neural network models. It is an interesting subject what kind of model will be obtained if this algorithm is applied to the complex three-layered model which learns the same training signals. A three-layered model which is expanded to have direct connections between the 1st and the 3rd layer elements has been constructed and the learning method of normal back propagation was applied first to this model. The forgetting algorithm was then added to this learning process. The connections concerned with the 2nd layer elements disappeared and the 2nd layer has become unnecessary. It took a longer computing time by an order to learn the same training signals than the simple back propagation, but the two-layered model was obtained autonomously from the expanded three-layered model. (author)
Chen, Jian; Chen, Jie; Ding, Hong-Yan; Pan, Qin-Shi; Hong, Wan-Dong; Xu, Gang; Yu, Fang-You; Wang, Yu-Min
2015-01-01
The statistical methods to analyze and predict the related dangerous factors of deep fungal infection in lung cancer patients were several, such as logic regression analysis, meta-analysis, multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis, retrospective analysis, and so on, but the results are inconsistent. A total of 696 patients with lung cancer were enrolled. The factors were compared employing Student's t-test or the Mann-Whitney test or the Chi-square test and variables that were significantly related to the presence of deep fungal infection selected as candidates for input into the final artificial neural network analysis (ANN) model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) model and logistic regression (LR) model. The prevalence of deep fungal infection from lung cancer in this entire study population was 32.04%(223/696), deep fungal infections occur in sputum specimens 44.05% (200/454). The ratio of candida albicans was 86.99% (194/223) in the total fungi. It was demonstrated that older (≥65 years), use of antibiotics, low serum albumin concentrations (≤37.18 g /L), radiotherapy, surgery, low hemoglobin hyperlipidemia (≤93.67 g /L), long time of hospitalization (≥14 days) were apt to deep fungal infection and the ANN model consisted of the seven factors. The AUC of ANN model (0.829±0.019) was higher than that of LR model (0.756±0.021). The artificial neural network model with variables consisting of age, use of antibiotics, serum albumin concentrations, received radiotherapy, received surgery, hemoglobin, time of hospitalization should be useful for predicting the deep fungal infection in lung cancer.
Wang, Zhongqi; Yang, Bo; Kang, Yonggang; Yang, Yuan
2016-01-01
Fixture plays an important part in constraining excessive sheet metal part deformation at machining, assembly, and measuring stages during the whole manufacturing process. However, it is still a difficult and nontrivial task to design and optimize sheet metal fixture locating layout at present because there is always no direct and explicit expression describing sheet metal fixture locating layout and responding deformation. To that end, an RBF neural network prediction model is proposed in this paper to assist design and optimization of sheet metal fixture locating layout. The RBF neural network model is constructed by training data set selected by uniform sampling and finite element simulation analysis. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the proposed method.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhongqi Wang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Fixture plays an important part in constraining excessive sheet metal part deformation at machining, assembly, and measuring stages during the whole manufacturing process. However, it is still a difficult and nontrivial task to design and optimize sheet metal fixture locating layout at present because there is always no direct and explicit expression describing sheet metal fixture locating layout and responding deformation. To that end, an RBF neural network prediction model is proposed in this paper to assist design and optimization of sheet metal fixture locating layout. The RBF neural network model is constructed by training data set selected by uniform sampling and finite element simulation analysis. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the proposed method.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eronen Lauri
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Biological databases contain large amounts of data concerning the functions and associations of genes and proteins. Integration of data from several such databases into a single repository can aid the discovery of previously unknown connections spanning multiple types of relationships and databases. Results Biomine is a system that integrates cross-references from several biological databases into a graph model with multiple types of edges, such as protein interactions, gene-disease associations and gene ontology annotations. Edges are weighted based on their type, reliability, and informativeness. We present Biomine and evaluate its performance in link prediction, where the goal is to predict pairs of nodes that will be connected in the future, based on current data. In particular, we formulate protein interaction prediction and disease gene prioritization tasks as instances of link prediction. The predictions are based on a proximity measure computed on the integrated graph. We consider and experiment with several such measures, and perform a parameter optimization procedure where different edge types are weighted to optimize link prediction accuracy. We also propose a novel method for disease-gene prioritization, defined as finding a subset of candidate genes that cluster together in the graph. We experimentally evaluate Biomine by predicting future annotations in the source databases and prioritizing lists of putative disease genes. Conclusions The experimental results show that Biomine has strong potential for predicting links when a set of selected candidate links is available. The predictions obtained using the entire Biomine dataset are shown to clearly outperform ones obtained using any single source of data alone, when different types of links are suitably weighted. In the gene prioritization task, an established reference set of disease-associated genes is useful, but the results show that under favorable
Sau, Arkaprabha; Bhakta, Ishita
2017-05-01
Depression is one of the most important causes of mortality and morbidity among the geriatric population. Although, the aging brain is more vulnerable to depression, it cannot be considered as physiological and an inevitable part of ageing. Various sociodemographic and morbidity factors are responsible for the depression among them. Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model depression can be predicted from various sociodemographic variables and co morbid conditions even at community level by the grass root level health care workers. To predict depression among geriatric population from sociodemographic and morbidity attributes using ANN. An observational descriptive study with cross-sectional design was carried out at a slum under the service area of Bagbazar Urban Health and Training Centre (UHTC) in Kolkata. Among 126 elderlies under Bagbazar UHTC, 105 were interviewed using predesigned and pretested schedule. Depression status was assessed using 30 item Geriatric Depression Scale. WEKA 3.8.0 was used to develop the ANN model and test its performance. Prevalence of depression among the study population was 45.7%. Various sociodemographic variables like age, gender, literacy, living spouse, working status, personal income, family type, substance abuse and co morbid conditions like visual problem, mobility problem, hearing problem and sleeping problem were taken into consideration to develop the model. Prediction accuracy of this ANN model was 97.2%. Depression among geriatric population can be predicted accurately using ANN model from sociodemographic and morbidity attributes.
CONSTRUCTION COST PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS
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Smita K Magdum
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Construction cost prediction is important for construction firms to compete and grow in the industry. Accurate construction cost prediction in the early stage of project is important for project feasibility studies and successful completion. There are many factors that affect the cost prediction. This paper presents construction cost prediction as multiple regression model with cost of six materials as independent variables. The objective of this paper is to develop neural networks and multilayer perceptron based model for construction cost prediction. Different models of NN and MLP are developed with varying hidden layer size and hidden nodes. Four artificial neural network models and twelve multilayer perceptron models are compared. MLP and NN give better results than statistical regression method. As compared to NN, MLP works better on training dataset but fails on testing dataset. Five activation functions are tested to identify suitable function for the problem. ‘elu' transfer function gives better results than other transfer function.
Xiao, WenBo; Nazario, Gina; Wu, HuaMing; Zhang, HuaMing; Cheng, Feng
2017-01-01
In this article, we introduced an artificial neural network (ANN) based computational model to predict the output power of three types of photovoltaic cells, mono-crystalline (mono-), multi-crystalline (multi-), and amorphous (amor-) crystalline. The prediction results are very close to the experimental data, and were also influenced by numbers of hidden neurons. The order of the solar generation power output influenced by the external conditions from smallest to biggest is: multi-, mono-, and amor- crystalline silicon cells. In addition, the dependences of power prediction on the number of hidden neurons were studied. For multi- and amorphous crystalline cell, three or four hidden layer units resulted in the high correlation coefficient and low MSEs. For mono-crystalline cell, the best results were achieved at the hidden layer unit of 8.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
WenBo Xiao
Full Text Available In this article, we introduced an artificial neural network (ANN based computational model to predict the output power of three types of photovoltaic cells, mono-crystalline (mono-, multi-crystalline (multi-, and amorphous (amor- crystalline. The prediction results are very close to the experimental data, and were also influenced by numbers of hidden neurons. The order of the solar generation power output influenced by the external conditions from smallest to biggest is: multi-, mono-, and amor- crystalline silicon cells. In addition, the dependences of power prediction on the number of hidden neurons were studied. For multi- and amorphous crystalline cell, three or four hidden layer units resulted in the high correlation coefficient and low MSEs. For mono-crystalline cell, the best results were achieved at the hidden layer unit of 8.
de Gennaro, Gianluigi; Trizio, Livia; Di Gilio, Alessia; Pey, Jorge; Pérez, Noemi; Cusack, Michael; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier
2013-10-01
An artificial neural network (ANN) was developed and tested to forecast PM10 daily concentration in two contrasted environments in NE Spain, a regional background site (Montseny), and an urban background site (Barcelona-CSIC), which was highly influenced by vehicular emissions. In order to predict 24-h average PM10 concentrations, the artificial neural network previously developed by Caselli et al. (2009) was improved by using hourly PM concentrations and deterministic factors such as a Saharan dust alert. In particular, the model input data for prediction were the hourly PM10 concentrations 1-day in advance, local meteorological data and information about air masses origin. The forecasted performance indexes for both sites were calculated and they showed better results for the regional background site in Montseny (R(2)=0.86, SI=0.75) than for urban site in Barcelona (R(2)=0.73, SI=0.58), influenced by local and sometimes unexpected sources. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis conducted to understand the importance of the different variables included among the input data, showed that local meteorology and air masses origin are key factors in the model forecasts. This result explains the reason for the improvement of ANN's forecasting performance at the Montseny site with respect to the Barcelona site. Moreover, the artificial neural network developed in this work could prove useful to predict PM10 concentrations, especially, at regional background sites such as those on the Mediterranean Basin which are primarily affected by long-range transports. Hence, the artificial neural network presented here could be a powerful tool for obtaining real time information on air quality status and could aid stakeholders in their development of cost-effective control strategies. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Larkin, Andrew [Department of Environmental and Molecular Toxicology, Oregon State University (United States); Department of Statistics, Oregon State University (United States); Superfund Research Center, Oregon State University (United States); Siddens, Lisbeth K. [Department of Environmental and Molecular Toxicology, Oregon State University (United States); Superfund Research Center, Oregon State University (United States); Krueger, Sharon K. [Superfund Research Center, Oregon State University (United States); Linus Pauling Institute, Oregon State University (United States); Tilton, Susan C.; Waters, Katrina M. [Superfund Research Center, Oregon State University (United States); Computational Biology and Bioinformatics Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Williams, David E., E-mail: david.williams@oregonstate.edu [Department of Environmental and Molecular Toxicology, Oregon State University (United States); Superfund Research Center, Oregon State University (United States); Linus Pauling Institute, Oregon State University (United States); Environmental Health Sciences Center, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331 (United States); Baird, William M. [Department of Environmental and Molecular Toxicology, Oregon State University (United States); Superfund Research Center, Oregon State University (United States); Environmental Health Sciences Center, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331 (United States)
2013-03-01
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are present in the environment as complex mixtures with components that have diverse carcinogenic potencies and mostly unknown interactive effects. Non-additive PAH interactions have been observed in regulation of cytochrome P450 (CYP) gene expression in the CYP1 family. To better understand and predict biological effects of complex mixtures, such as environmental PAHs, an 11 gene input-1 gene output fuzzy neural network (FNN) was developed for predicting PAH-mediated perturbations of dermal Cyp1b1 transcription in mice. Input values were generalized using fuzzy logic into low, medium, and high fuzzy subsets, and sorted using k-means clustering to create Mamdani logic functions for predicting Cyp1b1 mRNA expression. Model testing was performed with data from microarray analysis of skin samples from FVB/N mice treated with toluene (vehicle control), dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), or 1 of 3 combinations of diesel particulate extract (DPE), coal tar extract (CTE) and cigarette smoke condensate (CSC) using leave-one-out cross-validation. Predictions were within 1 log{sub 2} fold change unit of microarray data, with the exception of the DBC treatment group, where the unexpected down-regulation of Cyp1b1 expression was predicted but did not reach statistical significance on the microarrays. Adding CTE to DPE was predicted to increase Cyp1b1 expression, whereas adding CSC to CTE and DPE was predicted to have no effect, in agreement with microarray results. The aryl hydrocarbon receptor repressor (Ahrr) was determined to be the most significant input variable for model predictions using back-propagation and normalization of FNN weights. - Highlights: ► Tested a model to predict PAH mixture-mediated changes in Cyp1b1 expression ► Quantitative predictions in agreement with microarrays for Cyp1b1 induction ► Unexpected difference in expression between DBC and other treatments predicted ► Model predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zahedi, Gholamreza; Karami, Zohre; Yaghoobi, Hamed
2009-01-01
In this study, various estimation methods have been reviewed for hydrate formation temperature (HFT) and two procedures have been presented. In the first method, two general correlations have been proposed for HFT. One of the correlations has 11 parameters, and the second one has 18 parameters. In order to obtain constants in proposed equations, 203 experimental data points have been collected from literatures. The Engineering Equation Solver (EES) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) soft wares have been employed for statistical analysis of the data. Accuracy of the obtained correlations also has been declared by comparison with experimental data and some recent common used correlations. In the second method, HFT is estimated by artificial neural network (ANN) approach. In this case, various architectures have been checked using 70% of experimental data for training of ANN. Among the various architectures multi layer perceptron (MLP) network with trainlm training algorithm was found as the best architecture. Comparing the obtained ANN model results with 30% of unseen data confirms ANN excellent estimation performance. It was found that ANN is more accurate than traditional methods and even our two proposed correlations for HFT estimation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Deyin Yao
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of robust model predictive control (RMPC for a class of linear time-varying systems with constraints and data losses. We take the polytopic uncertainties into account to describe the uncertain systems. First, we design a robust state observer by using the linear matrix inequality (LMI constraints so that the original system state can be tracked. Second, the MPC gain is calculated by minimizing the upper bound of infinite horizon robust performance objective in terms of linear matrix inequality conditions. The method of robust MPC and state observer design is illustrated by a numerical example.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haber, I E; Farkas, I
2011-01-01
The exterior factors which influencing the working circumstances of photovoltaic modules are the irradiation, the optical air layer (Air Mass - AM), the irradiation angle, the environmental temperature and the cooling effect of the wind. The efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) devices is inversely proportional to the cell temperature and therefore the mounting of the PV modules can have a big affect on the cooling, due to wind flow-around and naturally convection. The construction of the modules could be described by a heatflow-network model, and that can define the equation which determines the cells temperature. An equation like this can be solved as a block oriented model with hybrid-analogue simulator such as Matlab-Simulink. In view of the flow field and the heat transfer, witch was calculated numerically, the heat transfer coefficients can be determined. Five inflow rates were set up for both pitched and flat roof cases, to let the trend of the heat transfer coefficient know, while these functions can be used for the Matlab/Simulink model. To model the free convection flows, the Boussinesq-approximation were used, integrated into the Navier-Stokes equations and the energy equation. It has been found that under a constant solar heat gain, the air velocity around the modules and behind the pitched-roof mounted module is increasing, proportionately to the wind velocities, and as result the heat transfer coefficient increases linearly, and can be described by a function in both cases. To the block based model the meteorological parameters and the results of the CFD simulations as single functions were attached. The final aim was to make a model that could be used for planning photovoltaic systems, and define their accurate performance for better sizing of an array of modules.
Trading network predicts stock price.
Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi
2014-01-16
Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.
Eloqayli, Haytham; Al-Yousef, Ali; Jaradat, Raid
2018-02-15
Despite the high prevalence of chronic neck pain, there is limited consensus about the primary etiology, risk factors, diagnostic criteria and therapeutic outcome. Here, we aimed to determine if Ferritin and Vitamin D are modifiable risk factors with chronic neck pain using slandered statistics and artificial intelligence neural network (ANN). Fifty-four patients with chronic neck pain treated between February 2016 and August 2016 in King Abdullah University Hospital and 54 patients age matched controls undergoing outpatient or minor procedures were enrolled. Patients and control demographic parameters, height, weight and single measurement of serum vitamin D, Vitamin B12, ferritin, calcium, phosphorus, zinc were obtained. An ANN prediction model was developed. The statistical analysis reveals that patients with chronic neck pain have significantly lower serum Vitamin D and Ferritin (p-value artificial neural network can be of future benefit in classification and prediction models for chronic neck pain. We hope this initial work will encourage a future larger cohort study addressing vitamin D and iron correction as modifiable factors and the application of artificial intelligence models in clinical practice.
Neural networks to predict exosphere temperature corrections
Choury, Anna; Bruinsma, Sean; Schaeffer, Philippe
2013-10-01
Precise orbit prediction requires a forecast of the atmospheric drag force with a high degree of accuracy. Artificial neural networks are universal approximators derived from artificial intelligence and are widely used for prediction. This paper presents a method of artificial neural networking for prediction of the thermosphere density by forecasting exospheric temperature, which will be used by the semiempirical thermosphere Drag Temperature Model (DTM) currently developed. Artificial neural network has shown to be an effective and robust forecasting model for temperature prediction. The proposed model can be used for any mission from which temperature can be deduced accurately, i.e., it does not require specific training. Although the primary goal of the study was to create a model for 1 day ahead forecast, the proposed architecture has been generalized to 2 and 3 days prediction as well. The impact of artificial neural network predictions has been quantified for the low-orbiting satellite Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer in 2011, and an order of magnitude smaller orbit errors were found when compared with orbits propagated using the thermosphere model DTM2009.
Afkhamipour, Morteza; Mofarahi, Masoud; Borhani, Tohid Nejad Ghaffar; Zanganeh, Masoud
2018-03-01
In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) and thermodynamic models were developed for prediction of the heat capacity ( C P ) of amine-based solvents. For ANN model, independent variables such as concentration, temperature, molecular weight and CO2 loading of amine were selected as the inputs of the model. The significance of the input variables of the ANN model on the C P values was investigated statistically by analyzing of correlation matrix. A thermodynamic model based on the Redlich-Kister equation was used to correlate the excess molar heat capacity ({C}_P^E) data as function of temperature. In addition, the effects of temperature and CO2 loading at different concentrations of conventional amines on the C P values were investigated. Both models were validated against experimental data and very good results were obtained between two mentioned models and experimental data of C P collected from various literatures. The AARD between ANN model results and experimental data of C P for 47 systems of amine-based solvents studied was 4.3%. For conventional amines, the AARD for ANN model and thermodynamic model in comparison with experimental data were 0.59% and 0.57%, respectively. The results showed that both ANN and Redlich-Kister models can be used as a practical tool for simulation and designing of CO2 removal processes by using amine solutions.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Carriger, John F. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, FL, 32561 (United States); Martin, Todd M. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Sustainable Technology Division, Cincinnati, OH, 45220 (United States); Barron, Mace G., E-mail: barron.mace@epa.gov [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, FL, 32561 (United States)
2016-11-15
Highlights: • A Bayesian network was developed to classify chemical mode of action (MoA). • The network was based on the aquatic toxicity MoA for over 1000 chemicals. • A Markov blanket algorithm selected a subset of theoretical molecular descriptors. • Sensitivity analyses found influential descriptors for classifying the MoAs. • Overall precision of the Bayesian MoA classification model was 80%. - Abstract: The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the dataset of 1098 chemicals with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2%. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blanket of a structurally complex dataset can simplify analysis and interpretation by
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luan Yihui
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Many aspects of biological functions can be modeled by biological networks, such as protein interaction networks, metabolic networks, and gene coexpression networks. Studying the statistical properties of these networks in turn allows us to infer biological function. Complex statistical network models can potentially more accurately describe the networks, but it is not clear whether such complex models are better suited to find biologically meaningful subnetworks. Results Recent studies have shown that the degree distribution of the nodes is not an adequate statistic in many molecular networks. We sought to extend this statistic with 2nd and 3rd order degree correlations and developed a pseudo-likelihood approach to estimate the parameters. The approach was used to analyze the MIPS and BIOGRID yeast protein interaction networks, and two yeast coexpression networks. We showed that 2nd order degree correlation information gave better predictions of gene interactions in both protein interaction and gene coexpression networks. However, in the biologically important task of predicting functionally homogeneous modules, degree correlation information performs marginally better in the case of the MIPS and BIOGRID protein interaction networks, but worse in the case of gene coexpression networks. Conclusion Our use of dK models showed that incorporation of degree correlations could increase predictive power in some contexts, albeit sometimes marginally, but, in all contexts, the use of third-order degree correlations decreased accuracy. However, it is possible that other parameter estimation methods, such as maximum likelihood, will show the usefulness of incorporating 2nd and 3rd degree correlations in predicting functionally homogeneous modules.
Wang, Wenhui; Nunez-Iglesias, Juan; Luan, Yihui; Sun, Fengzhu
2009-09-03
Many aspects of biological functions can be modeled by biological networks, such as protein interaction networks, metabolic networks, and gene coexpression networks. Studying the statistical properties of these networks in turn allows us to infer biological function. Complex statistical network models can potentially more accurately describe the networks, but it is not clear whether such complex models are better suited to find biologically meaningful subnetworks. Recent studies have shown that the degree distribution of the nodes is not an adequate statistic in many molecular networks. We sought to extend this statistic with 2nd and 3rd order degree correlations and developed a pseudo-likelihood approach to estimate the parameters. The approach was used to analyze the MIPS and BIOGRID yeast protein interaction networks, and two yeast coexpression networks. We showed that 2nd order degree correlation information gave better predictions of gene interactions in both protein interaction and gene coexpression networks. However, in the biologically important task of predicting functionally homogeneous modules, degree correlation information performs marginally better in the case of the MIPS and BIOGRID protein interaction networks, but worse in the case of gene coexpression networks. Our use of dK models showed that incorporation of degree correlations could increase predictive power in some contexts, albeit sometimes marginally, but, in all contexts, the use of third-order degree correlations decreased accuracy. However, it is possible that other parameter estimation methods, such as maximum likelihood, will show the usefulness of incorporating 2nd and 3rd degree correlations in predicting functionally homogeneous modules.
Predictive analytics of environmental adaptability in multi-omic network models.
Angione, Claudio; Lió, Pietro
2015-10-20
Bacterial phenotypic traits and lifestyles in response to diverse environmental conditions depend on changes in the internal molecular environment. However, predicting bacterial adaptability is still difficult outside of laboratory controlled conditions. Many molecular levels can contribute to the adaptation to a changing environment: pathway structure, codon usage, metabolism. To measure adaptability to changing environmental conditions and over time, we develop a multi-omic model of Escherichia coli that accounts for metabolism, gene expression and codon usage at both transcription and translation levels. After the integration of multiple omics into the model, we propose a multiobjective optimization algorithm to find the allowable and optimal metabolic phenotypes through concurrent maximization or minimization of multiple metabolic markers. In the condition space, we propose Pareto hypervolume and spectral analysis as estimators of short term multi-omic (transcriptomic and metabolic) evolution, thus enabling comparative analysis of metabolic conditions. We therefore compare, evaluate and cluster different experimental conditions, models and bacterial strains according to their metabolic response in a multidimensional objective space, rather than in the original space of microarray data. We finally validate our methods on a phenomics dataset of growth conditions. Our framework, named METRADE, is freely available as a MATLAB toolbox.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ruilin, Zhang [School of Safety Science and Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan Province, 454003, PR (China); Lowndes, Ian S. [Process and Environmental Research Division, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD (United Kingdom)
2010-11-01
This paper proposes the use of a coupled fault tree analysis (FTA) and artificial neural network (ANN) model to improve the prediction of the potential risk of coal and gas outburst events during the underground mining of thick and deep Chinese coal seams. The model developed has been used to investigate the gas emission characteristics and the geological conditions that exist within the Huaibei coal mining region, Anhui province, China. The coal seams in this region exhibit a high incidence of coal and gas outbursts. An analysis of the results obtained from an initial application of an FTA model, identified eight dominant model parameters related to the gas content or geological conditions of the coal seams, which characterize the potential risk of in situ coal and gas outbursts. The eight dominant model parameters identified by the FTA method were subsequently used as input variables to an ANN model. The results produced by the ANN model were used to develop a qualitative risk index to characterize the potential risk level of occurrence of coal and gas outburst events. Four different potential risk alarm levels were defined: SAFE, POTENTIAL, HIGH and STRONG. Solutions to the prediction model were obtained using a combination of quantitative and qualitative data including the gas content or gas pressure and the geological and geotechnical conditions of coal seams. The application of this combined solution method identified more explicit and accurate model relationships between the in situ geological conditions and the potential risk of coal and gas outbursts. An analysis of the model solutions concluded that the coupled FTA and ANN model may offer a reliable alternative method to forecast the potential risk of coal and gas outbursts. (author)
Paul, Suman; Ali, Muhammad; Chatterjee, Rima
2018-01-01
Velocity of compressional wave ( V P) of coal and non-coal lithology is predicted from five wells from the Bokaro coalfield (CF), India. Shear sonic travel time logs are not recorded for all wells under the study area. Shear wave velocity ( Vs) is available only for two wells: one from east and other from west Bokaro CF. The major lithologies of this CF are dominated by coal, shaly coal of Barakar formation. This paper focuses on the (a) relationship between Vp and Vs, (b) prediction of Vp using regression and neural network modeling and (c) estimation of maximum horizontal stress from image log. Coal characterizes with low acoustic impedance (AI) as compared to the overlying and underlying strata. The cross-plot between AI and Vp/ Vs is able to identify coal, shaly coal, shale and sandstone from wells in Bokaro CF. The relationship between Vp and Vs is obtained with excellent goodness of fit ( R 2) ranging from 0.90 to 0.93. Linear multiple regression and multi-layered feed-forward neural network (MLFN) models are developed for prediction Vp from two wells using four input log parameters: gamma ray, resistivity, bulk density and neutron porosity. Regression model predicted Vp shows poor fit (from R 2 = 0.28) to good fit ( R 2 = 0.79) with the observed velocity. MLFN model predicted Vp indicates satisfactory to good R2 values varying from 0.62 to 0.92 with the observed velocity. Maximum horizontal stress orientation from a well at west Bokaro CF is studied from Formation Micro-Imager (FMI) log. Breakouts and drilling-induced fractures (DIFs) are identified from the FMI log. Breakout length of 4.5 m is oriented towards N60°W whereas the orientation of DIFs for a cumulative length of 26.5 m is varying from N15°E to N35°E. The mean maximum horizontal stress in this CF is towards N28°E.
Neural Network Classifiers for Local Wind Prediction.
Kretzschmar, Ralf; Eckert, Pierre; Cattani, Daniel; Eggimann, Fritz
2004-05-01
This paper evaluates the quality of neural network classifiers for wind speed and wind gust prediction with prediction lead times between +1 and +24 h. The predictions were realized based on local time series and model data. The selection of appropriate input features was initiated by time series analysis and completed by empirical comparison of neural network classifiers trained on several choices of input features. The selected input features involved day time, yearday, features from a single wind observation device at the site of interest, and features derived from model data. The quality of the resulting classifiers was benchmarked against persistence for two different sites in Switzerland. The neural network classifiers exhibited superior quality when compared with persistence judged on a specific performance measure, hit and false-alarm rates.
Collaborative networks: Reference modeling
Camarinha-Matos, L.M.; Afsarmanesh, H.
2008-01-01
Collaborative Networks: Reference Modeling works to establish a theoretical foundation for Collaborative Networks. Particular emphasis is put on modeling multiple facets of collaborative networks and establishing a comprehensive modeling framework that captures and structures diverse perspectives of
Fei, Yang; Hu, Jian; Gao, Kun; Tu, Jianfeng; Li, Wei-Qin; Wang, Wei
2017-06-01
To construct a radical basis function (RBF) artificial neural networks (ANNs) model to predict the incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP)-induced portal vein thrombosis. The analysis included 353 patients with AP who had admitted between January 2011 and December 2015. RBF ANNs model and logistic regression model were constructed based on eleven factors relevant to AP respectively. Statistical indexes were used to evaluate the value of the prediction in two models. The predict sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy by RBF ANNs model for PVT were 73.3%, 91.4%, 68.8%, 93.0% and 87.7%, respectively. There were significant differences between the RBF ANNs and logistic regression models in these parameters (Plogistic regression model. D-dimer, AMY, Hct and PT were important prediction factors of approval for AP-induced PVT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bangzhu Zhu
2012-02-01
Full Text Available Due to the movement and complexity of the carbon market, traditional monoscale forecasting approaches often fail to capture its nonstationary and nonlinear properties and accurately describe its moving tendencies. In this study, a multiscale ensemble forecasting model integrating empirical mode decomposition (EMD, genetic algorithm (GA and artificial neural network (ANN is proposed to forecast carbon price. Firstly, the proposed model uses EMD to decompose carbon price data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs and one residue. Then, the IMFs and residue are composed into a high frequency component, a low frequency component and a trend component which have similar frequency characteristics, simple components and strong regularity using the fine-to-coarse reconstruction algorithm. Finally, those three components are predicted using an ANN trained by GA, i.e., a GAANN model, and the final forecasting results can be obtained by the sum of these three forecasting results. For verification and testing, two main carbon future prices with different maturity in the European Climate Exchange (ECX are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed multiscale ensemble forecasting model. Empirical results obtained demonstrate that the proposed multiscale ensemble forecasting model can outperform the single random walk (RW, ARIMA, ANN and GAANN models without EMD preprocessing and the ensemble ARIMA model with EMD preprocessing.
Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar
Khaing Win Mar; Thinn Thu Naing
2008-01-01
Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a s...
Hu, Dawei; Liu, Hong; Yang, Chenliang; Hu, Enzhu
As a subsystem of the bioregenerative life support system (BLSS), light-algae bioreactor (LABR) has properties of high reaction rate, efficiently synthesizing microalgal biomass, absorbing CO2 and releasing O2, so it is significant for BLSS to provide food and maintain gas balance. In order to manipulate the LABR properly, it has been designed as a closed-loop control system, and technology of Artificial Neural Network-Model Predictive Control (ANN-MPC) is applied to design the controller for LABR in which green microalgae, Spirulina platensis is cultivated continuously. The conclusion is drawn by computer simulation that ANN-MPC controller can intelligently learn the complicated dynamic performances of LABR, and automatically, robustly and self-adaptively regulate the light intensity illuminating on the LABR, hence make the growth of microalgae in the LABR be changed in line with the references, meanwhile provide appropriate damping to improve markedly the transient response performance of LABR.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jang, Jin-wook [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, P.O. Box 105, Yusong, Daejon 305-600 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: Jinwook@kaeri.re.kr; Seong, Seung-Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, P.O. Box 105, Yusong, Daejon 305-600 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: shseong@kaeri.re.kr; Lee, Un-Chul [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Shinlim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)
2007-09-15
A fast prediction model for load-following operations in a soluble boron-free reactor has been proposed, which can predict the core status when three or more control rod groups are moved at a time. This prediction model consists of two multilayer feedforward neural network models to retrieve the axial offset and the reactivity, and compensation models to compensate for the reactivity and axial offset arising from the xenon transient. The neural network training data were generated by taking various overlaps among the control rod groups into consideration for training the neural network models, and the accuracy of the constructed neural network models was verified. Validation results of predicting load following operations for a soluble boron-free reactor show that this model has a good capability to predict the positions of the control rods for sustaining the criticality of a core during load-following operations to ensure that the tolerable axial offset band is not exceeded and it can provide enough corresponding time for the operators to take the necessary actions to prevent a deviation from the tolerable operating band.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jang, Jin-wook; Seong, Seung-Hwan; Lee, Un-Chul
2007-01-01
A fast prediction model for load-following operations in a soluble boron-free reactor has been proposed, which can predict the core status when three or more control rod groups are moved at a time. This prediction model consists of two multilayer feedforward neural network models to retrieve the axial offset and the reactivity, and compensation models to compensate for the reactivity and axial offset arising from the xenon transient. The neural network training data were generated by taking various overlaps among the control rod groups into consideration for training the neural network models, and the accuracy of the constructed neural network models was verified. Validation results of predicting load following operations for a soluble boron-free reactor show that this model has a good capability to predict the positions of the control rods for sustaining the criticality of a core during load-following operations to ensure that the tolerable axial offset band is not exceeded and it can provide enough corresponding time for the operators to take the necessary actions to prevent a deviation from the tolerable operating band
Wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater using neural network
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.; Patil, S.G.; Hegde, A.V.
In the present study, an artificial neural network method has been applied for wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater. Two neural network models are constructed based on the parameters which influence the wave transmission...
Stability prediction of berm breakwater using neural network
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.; Rao, S.; Manjunath, Y.R.
In the present study, an artificial neural network method has been applied to predict the stability of berm breakwaters. Four neural network models are constructed based on the parameters which influence the stability of breakwater. Training...
Tomatis, S.; Rancati, T.; Fiorino, C.; Vavassori, V.; Fellin, G.; Cagna, E.; Mauro, F. A.; Girelli, G.; Monti, A.; Baccolini, M.; Naldi, G.; Bianchi, C.; Menegotti, L.; Pasquino, M.; Stasi, M.; Valdagni, R.
2012-03-01
The aim of this study was to develop a model exploiting artificial neural networks (ANNs) to correlate dosimetric and clinical variables with late rectal bleeding in prostate cancer patients undergoing radical radiotherapy and to compare the ANN results with those of a standard logistic regression (LR) analysis. 718 men included in the AIROPROS 0102 trial were analyzed. This multicenter protocol was characterized by the prospective evaluation of rectal toxicity, with a minimum follow-up of 36 months. Radiotherapy doses were between 70 and 80 Gy. Information was recorded for comorbidity, previous abdominal surgery, use of drugs and hormonal therapy. For each patient, a rectal dose-volume histogram (DVH) of the whole treatment was recorded and the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) evaluated as an effective descriptor of the whole DVH. Late rectal bleeding of grade ≥ 2 was considered to define positive events in this study (52 of 718 patients). The overall population was split into training and verification sets, both of which were involved in model instruction, and a test set, used to evaluate the predictive power of the model with independent data. Fourfold cross-validation was also used to provide realistic results for the full dataset. The LR was performed on the same data. Five variables were selected to predict late rectal bleeding: EUD, abdominal surgery, presence of hemorrhoids, use of anticoagulants and androgen deprivation. Following a receiver operating characteristic analysis of the independent test set, the areas under the curves (AUCs) were 0.704 and 0.655 for ANN and LR, respectively. When evaluated with cross-validation, the AUC was 0.714 for ANN and 0.636 for LR, which differed at a significance level of p = 0.03. When a practical discrimination threshold was selected, ANN could classify data with sensitivity and specificity both equal to 68.0%, whereas these values were 61.5% for LR. These data provide reasonable evidence that results obtained with
Predicting tax avoidance by means of social network analytics
Jasmien, Lismont; Cardinaels, Eddy; Bruynseels, L.M.L.; De Groote, Sander; Baesens, B.; Lemahieu, W.; Vanthienen, J.
This study predicts tax avoidance by means of social network analytics. We extend previous literature by being the first to build a predictive model including a larger variation of network features. We construct a network of firms connected through shared board membership. Then, we apply three
Predicting local field potentials with recurrent neural networks.
Kim, Louis; Harer, Jacob; Rangamani, Akshay; Moran, James; Parks, Philip D; Widge, Alik; Eskandar, Emad; Dougherty, Darin; Chin, Sang Peter
2016-08-01
We present a Recurrent Neural Network using LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) that is capable of modeling and predicting Local Field Potentials. We train and test the network on real data recorded from epilepsy patients. We construct networks that predict multi-channel LFPs for 1, 10, and 100 milliseconds forward in time. Our results show that prediction using LSTM outperforms regression when predicting 10 and 100 millisecond forward in time.
Hunter, Jason M.; Maier, Holger R.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Foale, Eloise R.; Grosvenor, Naomi A.; Harders, Nathan P.; Kikuchi-Miller, Tahali C.
2018-05-01
Salinity modelling in river systems is complicated by a number of processes, including in-stream salt transport and various mechanisms of saline accession that vary dynamically as a function of water level and flow, often at different temporal scales. Traditionally, salinity models in rivers have either been process- or data-driven. The primary problem with process-based models is that in many instances, not all of the underlying processes are fully understood or able to be represented mathematically. There are also often insufficient historical data to support model development. The major limitation of data-driven models, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) in comparison, is that they provide limited system understanding and are generally not able to be used to inform management decisions targeting specific processes, as different processes are generally modelled implicitly. In order to overcome these limitations, a generic framework for developing hybrid process and data-driven models of salinity in river systems is introduced and applied in this paper. As part of the approach, the most suitable sub-models are developed for each sub-process affecting salinity at the location of interest based on consideration of model purpose, the degree of process understanding and data availability, which are then combined to form the hybrid model. The approach is applied to a 46 km reach of the Murray River in South Australia, which is affected by high levels of salinity. In this reach, the major processes affecting salinity include in-stream salt transport, accession of saline groundwater along the length of the reach and the flushing of three waterbodies in the floodplain during overbank flows of various magnitudes. Based on trade-offs between the degree of process understanding and data availability, a process-driven model is developed for in-stream salt transport, an ANN model is used to model saline groundwater accession and three linear regression models are used
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. P. Moustris
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The present study, deals with the 24-hour prognosis of the outdoor biometeorological conditions in an urban monitoring site within the Greater Athens area, Greece. For this purpose, artificial neural networks (ANNs modelling techniques are applied in order to predict the maximum and the minimum value of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET one day ahead as well as the persistence of the hours with extreme human biometeorological conditions. The findings of the analysis showed that extreme heat stress appears to be 10.0% of the examined hours within the warm period of the year, against extreme cold stress for 22.8% of the hours during the cold period of the year. Finally, human thermal comfort sensation accounts for 81.8% of the hours during the year. Concerning the PET prognosis, ANNs have a remarkable forecasting ability to predict the extreme daily PET values one day ahead, as well as the persistence of extreme conditions during the day, at a significant statistical level of .
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Zhang
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Winding hotspot temperature is the key factor affecting the load capacity and service life of transformers. For the early detection of transformer winding hotspot temperature anomalies, a new prediction model for the hotspot temperature fluctuation range based on fuzzy information granulation (FIG and the chaotic particle swarm optimized wavelet neural network (CPSO-WNN is proposed in this paper. The raw data are firstly processed by FIG to extract useful information from each time window. The extracted information is then used to construct a wavelet neural network (WNN prediction model. Furthermore, the structural parameters of WNN are optimized by chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO before it is used to predict the fluctuation range of the hotspot temperature. By analyzing the experimental data with four different prediction models, we find that the proposed method is more effective and is of guiding significance for the operation and maintenance of transformers.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wen-Cheng Liu
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Accurate simulations of river stages during typhoon events are critically important for flood control and are necessary for disaster prevention and water resources management in Taiwan. This study applies two artificial neural network (ANN models, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN and genetic algorithm neural network (GANN techniques, to improve predictions from a one-dimensional flood routing hydrodynamic model regarding the water stages during typhoon events in the Danshuei River system in northern Taiwan. The hydrodynamic model is driven by freshwater discharges at the upstream boundary conditions and by the water levels at the downstream boundary condition. The model provides a sound physical basis for simulating water stages along the river. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model show that the model cannot reproduce the water stages at different stations during typhoon events for the model calibration and verification phases. The BPNN and GANN models can improve the simulated water stages compared with the performance of the hydrodynamic model. The GANN model satisfactorily predicts water stages during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and peak error compared with the simulated results at different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison of the simulated results shows that the GANN model can be successfully applied to predict the water stages of the Danshuei River system during typhoon events.
Predicting Expressive Dynamics in Piano Performances using Neural Networks
van Herwaarden, Sam; Grachten, Maarten; de Haas, W. Bas
2014-01-01
This paper presents a model for predicting expressive accentuation in piano performances with neural networks. Using Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), features are learned from performance data, after which these features are used to predict performed loudness. During feature learning, data
Lee, Christine K; Hofer, Ira; Gabel, Eilon; Baldi, Pierre; Cannesson, Maxime
2018-04-17
The authors tested the hypothesis that deep neural networks trained on intraoperative features can predict postoperative in-hospital mortality. The data used to train and validate the algorithm consists of 59,985 patients with 87 features extracted at the end of surgery. Feed-forward networks with a logistic output were trained using stochastic gradient descent with momentum. The deep neural networks were trained on 80% of the data, with 20% reserved for testing. The authors assessed improvement of the deep neural network by adding American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification and robustness of the deep neural network to a reduced feature set. The networks were then compared to ASA Physical Status, logistic regression, and other published clinical scores including the Surgical Apgar, Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality, Risk Quantification Index, and the Risk Stratification Index. In-hospital mortality in the training and test sets were 0.81% and 0.73%. The deep neural network with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status classification had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). The highest logistic regression area under the curve was found with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status (0.90, 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93). The Risk Stratification Index had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, at 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99). Deep neural networks can predict in-hospital mortality based on automatically extractable intraoperative data, but are not (yet) superior to existing methods.
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Pauck, WJ
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The removal of ink from recovered papers by flotation deinking is considered to be the “heart” of the paper recycling process. Attempts to model the deinking flotation process from first principles has resulted in complex and not readily usable...
2016-08-27
bovine serum albumin (BSA) diluted to the amount corresponding to that in the media of the stimulated cells. Phospho-JNK comprises two isoforms whose...information accompanies this paper on the CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology website (http://www.wileyonlinelibrary.com/psp4) Systematic Analysis of Quantitative Logic Model Morris et al. 553 www.wileyonlinelibrary/psp4
Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events
Sharmeen, F.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.
2015-01-01
This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marseguerra, M.; Minoggio, S.; Rossi, A.; Zio, E.
1992-01-01
The correlated noise affecting many industrial plants under stationary or cyclo-stationary conditions - nuclear reactors included -has been successfully modeled by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) due to the versatility of this technique. The relatively recent neural network methods have similar features and much effort is being devoted to exploring their usefulness in forecasting and control. Identifying a signal by means of an ARMA model gives rise to the problem of selecting its correct order. Similar difficulties must be faced when applying neural network methods and, specifically, particular care must be given to the setting up of the appropriate network topology, the data normalization procedure and the learning code. In the present paper the capability of some neural networks of learning ARMA and seasonal ARMA processes is investigated. The results of the tested cases look promising since they indicate that the neural networks learn the underlying process with relative ease so that their forecasting capability may represent a convenient fault diagnosis tool. (Author)
Tang, Z H; Geng, Z M; Chen, C; Si, S B; Cai, Z Q; Song, T Q; Gong, P; Jiang, L; Qiu, Y H; He, Y; Zhai, W L; Li, S P; Zhang, Y C; Yang, Y
2018-05-01
Objective: To investigate the clinical value of Bayesian network in predicting survival of patients with advanced gallbladder cancer(GBC)who underwent curative intent surgery. Methods: The clinical data of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative intent surgery in 9 institutions from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed retrospectively.A median survival time model based on a tree augmented naïve Bayes algorithm was established by Bayesia Lab software.The survival time, number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), T stage, pathological grade, margin, jaundice, liver invasion, age, sex and tumor morphology were included in this model.Confusion matrix, the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.A priori statistical analysis of these 10 variables and a posterior analysis(survival time as the target variable, the remaining factors as the attribute variables)was performed.The importance rankings of each variable was calculated with the polymorphic Birnbaum importance calculation based on the posterior analysis results.The survival probability forecast table was constructed based on the top 4 prognosis factors. The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival curves were compared using the Log-rank test. Results: A total of 316 patients were enrolled, including 109 males and 207 females.The ratio of male to female was 1.0∶1.9, the age was (62.0±10.8)years.There was 298 cases(94.3%) R0 resection and 18 cases(5.7%) R1 resection.T staging: 287 cases(90.8%) T3 and 29 cases(9.2%) T4.The median survival time(MST) was 23.77 months, and the 1, 3, 5-year survival rates were 67.4%, 40.8%, 32.0%, respectively.For the Bayesian model, the number of correctly predicted cases was 121(≤23.77 months) and 115(>23.77 months) respectively, leading to a 74.86% accuracy of this model.The prior probability of survival time was 0.503 2(≤23.77 months) and 0.496 8
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael W. Levin
2017-12-01
Full Text Available As fuel prices increase, drivers may make travel choices to minimize not only travel time, but also fuel consumption. Consideration of fuel consumption would affect route choice and influence trip frequency and mode choice. For instance, travelers may elect to live closer to their workplace, or use public transit to avoid fuel consumption and the associated costs. To incorporate network characteristics into predictions of the effects of fuel prices, we develop a multi-class combined elastic demand, mode choice, and user equilibrium model using a generalized cost function of travel time and fuel consumption with a combined solution algorithm. The algorithm is implemented in a custom software package, and a case study application on the Austin, Texas network is presented. We evaluate the fuel-price sensitivity of key variables such as drive-alone and transit class proportions, person-miles traveled, link-level traffic flow and per capita fuel consumption and emissions. These effects are examined across a heterogeneous demand set, with multiple user-classes categorized based on their value of travel time. The highest relative transit elasticities against fuel price are observed among low value of time classes, as expected. Although total personal vehicle travel decreases, congestion increases on some roads due to the generalized cost function. Reductions in system-wide fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are observed as well. The study uncovers the combined interactions among fuel prices, multi-modal choice behavior, travel performance, and resultant environmental impacts, all of which dictate the urban travel market. It also equips agencies with motivation to tailor emissions reduction and transit-ridership stimulus policies around the most responsive user classes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohsen Shanbeh
2011-01-01
Full Text Available One of the main methods to reduce the production costs is waste recycling which is the most important challenge for the future. Cotton wastes collected from ginning process have desirable properties which could be used during spinning process. The purpose of this study was to develop predictive models of breaking strength and mass irregularity (CV% of cotton waste rotor-spun yarns containing cotton waste collected from ginning process by using the artificial neural network trained with backpropagation algorithm. Artificial neural network models have been developed based on rotor diameter, rotor speed, navel type, opener roller speed, ginning waste proportion and yarn linear density as input parameters. The parameters of artificial neural network model, namely, learning, and momentum rate, number of hidden layers and number of hidden processing elements (neurons were optimized to get the best predictive models. The findings showed that the breaking strength and mass irregularity of rotor spun yarns could be predicted satisfactorily by artificial neural network. The maximum error in predicting the breaking strength and mass irregularity of testing data was 8.34% and 6.65%, respectively.
Tabaraki, R; Khayamian, T; Ensafi, A A
2006-09-01
A wavelet neural network (WNN) model in quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) was developed for predicting solubility of 25 anthraquinone dyes in supercritical carbon dioxide over a wide range of pressures (70-770 bar) and temperatures (291-423 K). A large number of descriptors were calculated with Dragon software and a subset of calculated descriptors was selected from 18 classes of Dragon descriptors with a stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) as a feature selection technique. Six calculated and two experimental descriptors, pressure and temperature, were selected as the most feasible descriptors. The selected descriptors were used as input nodes in a wavelet neural network (WNN) model. The wavelet neural network architecture and its parameters were optimized simultaneously. The data was randomly divided to the training, prediction and validation sets. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated using validation data set. The root mean squares error (RMSE) and mean absolute errors were 0.339 and 0.221, respectively, for the validation data set. The performance of the WNN model was also compared with artificial neural network (ANN) model and the results showed the superiority of the WNN over ANN model.
Chande, Ruchi D; Wayne, Jennifer S
2017-09-01
Computational models of diarthrodial joints serve to inform the biomechanical function of these structures, and as such, must be supplied appropriate inputs for performance that is representative of actual joint function. Inputs for these models are sourced from both imaging modalities as well as literature. The latter is often the source of mechanical properties for soft tissues, like ligament stiffnesses; however, such data are not always available for all the soft tissues nor is it known for patient-specific work. In the current research, a method to improve the ligament stiffness definition for a computational foot/ankle model was sought with the greater goal of improving the predictive ability of the computational model. Specifically, the stiffness values were optimized using artificial neural networks (ANNs); both feedforward and radial basis function networks (RBFNs) were considered. Optimal networks of each type were determined and subsequently used to predict stiffnesses for the foot/ankle model. Ultimately, the predicted stiffnesses were considered reasonable and resulted in enhanced performance of the computational model, suggesting that artificial neural networks can be used to optimize stiffness inputs.
Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks.
Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei
2017-06-26
Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.
Predicting Information Flows in Network Traffic.
Hinich, Melvin J.; Molyneux, Robert E.
2003-01-01
Discusses information flow in networks and predicting network traffic and describes a study that uses time series analysis on a day's worth of Internet log data. Examines nonlinearity and traffic invariants, and suggests that prediction of network traffic may not be possible with current techniques. (Author/LRW)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Enlai; Hou, Liang; Shen, Chao; Shi, Yingliang; Zhang, Yaxiang
2016-01-01
To better solve the complex non-linear problem between the subjective sound quality evaluation results and objective psychoacoustics parameters, a method for the prediction of the sound quality is put forward by using a back propagation neural network (BPNN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO), which is optimizing the initial weights and thresholds of BP network neurons through the PSO. In order to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of this approach, the noise signals of the B-Class vehicles from the idle speed to 120 km h −1 measured by the artificial head, are taken as a target. In addition, this paper describes a subjective evaluation experiment on the sound quality annoyance inside the vehicles through a grade evaluation method, by which the annoyance of each sample is obtained. With the use of Artemis software, the main objective psychoacoustic parameters of each noise sample are calculated. These parameters include loudness, sharpness, roughness, fluctuation, tonality, articulation index (AI) and A-weighted sound pressure level. Furthermore, three evaluation models with the same artificial neural network (ANN) structure are built: the standard BPNN model, the genetic algorithm-back-propagation neural network (GA-BPNN) model and the PSO-back-propagation neural network (PSO-BPNN) model. After the network training and the evaluation prediction on the three models’ network based on experimental data, it proves that the PSO-BPNN method can achieve convergence more quickly and improve the prediction accuracy of sound quality, which can further lay a foundation for the control of the sound quality inside vehicles. (paper)
Modeling Network Interdiction Tasks
2015-09-17
118 xiii Table Page 36 Computation times for weighted, 100-node random networks for GAND Approach testing in Python ...in Python . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 38 Accuracy measures for weighted, 100-node random networks for GAND...networks [15:p. 1]. A common approach to modeling network interdiction is to formulate the problem in terms of a two-stage strategic game between two
Predicting economic growth with stock networks
Heiberger, Raphael H.
2018-01-01
Networks derived from stock prices are often used to model developments on financial markets and are tightly intertwined with crises. Yet, the influence of changing market topologies on the broader economy (i.e. GDP) is unclear. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach that utilizes individual-level network measures of companies as lagged probabilistic features to predict national economic growth. We use a comprehensive data set consisting of Standard and Poor's 500 corporations from January 1988 until October 2016. The final model forecasts correctly all major recession and prosperity phases of the U.S. economy up to one year ahead. By employing different network measures on the level of corporations, we can also identify which companies' stocks possess a key role in a changing economic environment and may be used as indication of critical (and prosperous) developments. More generally, the proposed approach allows to predict probabilities for different overall states of social entities by using local network positions and could be applied on various phenomena.
Network information improves cancer outcome prediction.
Roy, Janine; Winter, Christof; Isik, Zerrin; Schroeder, Michael
2014-07-01
Disease progression in cancer can vary substantially between patients. Yet, patients often receive the same treatment. Recently, there has been much work on predicting disease progression and patient outcome variables from gene expression in order to personalize treatment options. Despite first diagnostic kits in the market, there are open problems such as the choice of random gene signatures or noisy expression data. One approach to deal with these two problems employs protein-protein interaction networks and ranks genes using the random surfer model of Google's PageRank algorithm. In this work, we created a benchmark dataset collection comprising 25 cancer outcome prediction datasets from literature and systematically evaluated the use of networks and a PageRank derivative, NetRank, for signature identification. We show that the NetRank performs significantly better than classical methods such as fold change or t-test. Despite an order of magnitude difference in network size, a regulatory and protein-protein interaction network perform equally well. Experimental evaluation on cancer outcome prediction in all of the 25 underlying datasets suggests that the network-based methodology identifies highly overlapping signatures over all cancer types, in contrast to classical methods that fail to identify highly common gene sets across the same cancer types. Integration of network information into gene expression analysis allows the identification of more reliable and accurate biomarkers and provides a deeper understanding of processes occurring in cancer development and progression. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Social Trust Prediction Using Heterogeneous Networks
HUANG, JIN; NIE, FEIPING; HUANG, HENG; TU, YI-CHENG; LEI, YU
2014-01-01
Along with increasing popularity of social websites, online users rely more on the trustworthiness information to make decisions, extract and filter information, and tag and build connections with other users. However, such social network data often suffer from severe data sparsity and are not able to provide users with enough information. Therefore, trust prediction has emerged as an important topic in social network research. Traditional approaches are primarily based on exploring trust graph topology itself. However, research in sociology and our life experience suggest that people who are in the same social circle often exhibit similar behaviors and tastes. To take advantage of the ancillary information for trust prediction, the challenge then becomes what to transfer and how to transfer. In this article, we address this problem by aggregating heterogeneous social networks and propose a novel joint social networks mining (JSNM) method. Our new joint learning model explores the user-group-level similarity between correlated graphs and simultaneously learns the individual graph structure; therefore, the shared structures and patterns from multiple social networks can be utilized to enhance the prediction tasks. As a result, we not only improve the trust prediction in the target graph but also facilitate other information retrieval tasks in the auxiliary graphs. To optimize the proposed objective function, we use the alternative technique to break down the objective function into several manageable subproblems. We further introduce the auxiliary function to solve the optimization problems with rigorously proved convergence. The extensive experiments have been conducted on both synthetic and real- world data. All empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. PMID:24729776
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Billaud, Y; Kaiss, A; Drissi, M; Pizzo, Y; Porterie, B; Zekri, N; Acem, Z; Collin, A; Boulet, P; Santoni, P-A; Bosseur, F
2012-01-01
This paper presents the latest developments and validation results of a hybrid model which combines a broad-scale stochastic small-world network model with a macroscopic deterministic approach, to simulate the effects of large fires burning in heterogeneous landscapes. In the extended version of the model, vegetation is depicted as an amorphous network of combustible cells, and both radiation and convection from the flaming zone are considered in the preheating process of unburned cells. Examples are given to illustrate small-world effects and fire behavior near the percolation threshold. The model is applied to a Mediterranean fire that occurred in Corsica in 2009 showing a good agreement in terms of rate of spread, and area and shape of the burn. A study, based on a fractional factorial plan, is conducted to evaluate the influence of variations of model parameters on fire propagation.
Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kovacova Maria
2017-01-01
Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ernest C Y Ho
Full Text Available Rett syndrome is a severe pediatric neurological disorder caused by loss of function mutations within the gene encoding methyl CpG-binding protein 2 (MeCP2. Although MeCP2 is expressed near ubiquitously, the primary pathophysiology of Rett syndrome stems from impairments of nervous system function. One alteration within different regions of the MeCP2-deficient brain is the presence of hyper-excitable network responses. In the hippocampus, such responses exist despite there being an overall decrease in spontaneous excitatory drive within the network. In this study, we generated and used mathematical, neuronal network models to resolve this apparent paradox. We did this by taking advantage of previous mathematical modelling insights that indicated that decreased excitatory fluctuations, but not mean excitatory drive, more critically explain observed changes in hippocampal network oscillations from MeCP2-null mouse slices. Importantly, reduced excitatory fluctuations could also bring about hyper-excitable responses in our network models. Therefore, these results indicate that diminished excitatory fluctuations may be responsible for the hyper-excitable state of MeCP2-deficient hippocampal circuitry.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koutroumanidis, Theodoros; Ioannou, Konstantinos; Arabatzis, Garyfallos
2009-01-01
Throughout history, energy resources have acquired a strategic significance for the economic growth and social welfare of any country. The large-scale oil crisis of 1973 coupled with various environmental protection issues, have led many countries to look for new, alternative energy sources. Biomass and fuelwood in particular, constitutes a major renewable energy source (RES) that can make a significant contribution, as a substitute for oil. This paper initially provides a description of the contribution of renewable energy sources to the production of electricity, and also examines the role of forests in the production of fuelwood in Greece. Following this, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANN) and a hybrid model are used to predict the future selling prices of the fuelwood (from broadleaved and coniferous species) produced by Greek state forest farms. The use of the ARIMA-ANN hybrid model provided the optimum prediction results, thus enabling decision-makers to proceed with a more rational planning for the production and fuelwood market. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hadhri, Mahdi; Ouafi, Abderazzak El; Barka, Noureddine [University of Quebec, Rimouski (Canada)
2017-02-15
This paper presents a comprehensive approach developed to design an effective prediction model for hardness profile in laser surface transformation hardening process. Based on finite element method and Artificial neural networks, the proposed approach is built progressively by (i) examining the laser hardening parameters and conditions known to have an influence on the hardened surface attributes through a structured experimental investigation, (ii) investigating the laser hardening parameters effects on the hardness profile through extensive 3D modeling and simulation efforts and (ii) integrating the hardening process parameters via neural network model for hardness profile prediction. The experimental validation conducted on AISI4340 steel using a commercial 3 kW Nd:Yag laser, confirm the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed approach leading to an accurate and reliable hardness profile prediction model. With a maximum relative error of about 10 % under various practical conditions, the predictive model can be considered as effective especially in the case of a relatively complex system such as laser surface transformation hardening process.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hadhri, Mahdi; Ouafi, Abderazzak El; Barka, Noureddine
2017-01-01
This paper presents a comprehensive approach developed to design an effective prediction model for hardness profile in laser surface transformation hardening process. Based on finite element method and Artificial neural networks, the proposed approach is built progressively by (i) examining the laser hardening parameters and conditions known to have an influence on the hardened surface attributes through a structured experimental investigation, (ii) investigating the laser hardening parameters effects on the hardness profile through extensive 3D modeling and simulation efforts and (ii) integrating the hardening process parameters via neural network model for hardness profile prediction. The experimental validation conducted on AISI4340 steel using a commercial 3 kW Nd:Yag laser, confirm the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed approach leading to an accurate and reliable hardness profile prediction model. With a maximum relative error of about 10 % under various practical conditions, the predictive model can be considered as effective especially in the case of a relatively complex system such as laser surface transformation hardening process
Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bohr, Henrik
1998-01-01
This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...
Mofavvaz, Shirin; Sohrabi, Mahmoud Reza; Nezamzadeh-Ejhieh, Alireza
2017-07-01
In the present study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) as intelligent methods based on absorption spectra in the range of 230-300 nm have been used for determination of antihistamine decongestant contents. In the first step, one type of network (feed-forward back-propagation) from the artificial neural network with two different training algorithms, Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) and gradient descent with momentum and adaptive learning rate back-propagation (GDX) algorithm, were employed and their performance was evaluated. The performance of the LM algorithm was better than the GDX algorithm. In the second one, the radial basis network was utilized and results compared with the previous network. In the last one, the other intelligent method named least squares support vector machine was proposed to construct the antihistamine decongestant prediction model and the results were compared with two of the aforementioned networks. The values of the statistical parameters mean square error (MSE), Regression coefficient (R2), correlation coefficient (r) and also mean recovery (%), relative standard deviation (RSD) used for selecting the best model between these methods. Moreover, the proposed methods were compared to the high- performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) as a reference method. One way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test at the 95% confidence level applied to the comparison results of suggested and reference methods that there were no significant differences between them.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul eChorley
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Dopaminergic neurons in the mammalian substantia nigra displaycharacteristic phasic responses to stimuli which reliably predict thereceipt of primary rewards. These responses have been suggested toencode reward prediction-errors similar to those used in reinforcementlearning. Here, we propose a model of dopaminergic activity in whichprediction error signals are generated by the joint action ofshort-latency excitation and long-latency inhibition, in a networkundergoing dopaminergic neuromodulation of both spike-timing dependentsynaptic plasticity and neuronal excitability. In contrast toprevious models, sensitivity to recent events is maintained by theselective modification of specific striatal synapses, efferent tocortical neurons exhibiting stimulus-specific, temporally extendedactivity patterns. Our model shows, in the presence of significantbackground activity, (i a shift in dopaminergic response from rewardto reward predicting stimuli, (ii preservation of a response tounexpected rewards, and (iii a precisely-timed below-baseline dip inactivity observed when expected rewards are omitted.
Noh, Wonjung; Seomun, Gyeongae
2015-06-01
This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balanced scorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performance prediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and a staff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0. We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performance prediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factor with the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, the probability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted the most effective way to increase profit. KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performance prediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Klem, Karel; Spitzer, T.
2017-01-01
Roč. 19, č. 3 (2017), s. 302-308 ISSN 1461-9555 R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1530373 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Brassica napus L * cabbage stem weevil * Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus * model * neural network * oilseed rape * weather conditions Subject RIV: EG - Zoology OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 1.726, year: 2016
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ghaderi A.
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Drying characteristics of button mushroom slices were determined using microwave vacuum drier at various powers (130, 260, 380, 450 W and absolute pressures (200, 400, 600, 800 mbar. To select a suitable mathematical model, 6 thin-layer drying models were fitted to the experimental data. The fitting rates of models were assessed based on three parameters; highest R2, lowest chi square ( and root mean square error (RMSE. In addition, using the experimental data, an ANN trained by standard back-propagation algorithm, was developed in order to predict moisture ratio (MR and drying rate (DR values based on the three input variables (drying time, absolute pressure, microwave power. Different activation functions and several rules were used to assess percentage error between the desired and the predicted values. According to our findings, Midilli et al. model showed a reasonable fitting with experimental data. While, the ANN model showed its high capability to predict the MR and DR quite well with determination coefficients (R2 of 0.9991, 0.9995 and 0.9996 for training, validation and testing, respectively. Furthermore, their predictions Mean Square Error were 0.00086, 0.00042 and 0.00052, respectively.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tomasz Andrysiak
2017-01-01
Full Text Available One of the basic elements of a Smart City is the urban infrastructure management system, in particular, systems of intelligent street lighting control. However, for their reliable operation, they require special care for the safety of their critical communication infrastructure. This article presents solutions for the detection of different kinds of abuses in network traffic of Smart Lighting infrastructure, realized by Power Line Communication technology. Both the structure of the examined Smart Lighting network and its elements are described. The article discusses the key security problems which have a direct impact on the correct performance of the Smart Lighting critical infrastructure. In order to detect an anomaly/attack, we proposed the usage of a statistical model to obtain forecasting intervals. Then, we calculated the value of the differences between the forecast in the estimated traffic model and its real variability so as to detect abnormal behavior (which may be symptomatic of an abuse attempt. Due to the possibility of appearance of significant fluctuations in the real network traffic, we proposed a procedure of statistical models update which is based on the criterion of interquartile spacing. The results obtained during the experiments confirmed the effectiveness of the presented misuse detection method.
Link prediction in multiplex online social networks
Jalili, Mahdi; Orouskhani, Yasin; Asgari, Milad; Alipourfard, Nazanin; Perc, Matjaž
2017-02-01
Online social networks play a major role in modern societies, and they have shaped the way social relationships evolve. Link prediction in social networks has many potential applications such as recommending new items to users, friendship suggestion and discovering spurious connections. Many real social networks evolve the connections in multiple layers (e.g. multiple social networking platforms). In this article, we study the link prediction problem in multiplex networks. As an example, we consider a multiplex network of Twitter (as a microblogging service) and Foursquare (as a location-based social network). We consider social networks of the same users in these two platforms and develop a meta-path-based algorithm for predicting the links. The connectivity information of the two layers is used to predict the links in Foursquare network. Three classical classifiers (naive Bayes, support vector machines (SVM) and K-nearest neighbour) are used for the classification task. Although the networks are not highly correlated in the layers, our experiments show that including the cross-layer information significantly improves the prediction performance. The SVM classifier results in the best performance with an average accuracy of 89%.
Predicting Employee Turnover from Communication Networks.
Feeley, Thomas H.; Barnett, George A.
1997-01-01
Investigates three social network models of employee turnover: a structural equivalence model, a social influence model, and an erosion model. Administers a communication network questionnaire to all 170 employees of an organization. Finds support for all three models of turnover, with the erosion model explaining more of the variance than do the…
Predictive modeling of complications.
Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P
2016-09-01
Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rudiati Evi Masithoh
2013-03-01
Full Text Available Artificial neural networks (ANN was used to predict the quality parameters of tomato, i.e. Brix, citric acid, total carotene, and vitamin C. ANN was developed from Red Green Blue (RGB image data of tomatoes measured using a developed computer vision system (CVS. Qualitative analysis of tomato compositions were obtained from laboratory experiments. ANN model was based on a feedforward backpropagation network with different training functions, namely gradient descent (traingd, gradient descent with the resilient backpropagation (trainrp, Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfrab and Shanno (BFGS quasi-Newton (trainbfg, as well as Levenberg Marquardt (trainlm. The network structure using logsig and linear (purelin activation function at the hidden and output layer, respectively, and using the trainlm as a training function resulted in the best performance. Correlation coefficient (r of training and validation process were 0.97 - 0.99 and 0.92 - 0.99, whereas the MAE values ranged from 0.01 to 0.23 and 0.03 to 0.59, respectively. Keywords: Artificial neural network, trainlm, tomato, RGB Jaringan syaraf tiruan (JST digunakan untuk memprediksi parameter kualitas tomat, yaitu Brix, asam sitrat, karoten total, dan vitamin C. JST dikembangkan dari data Red Green Blue (RGB citra tomat yang diukur menggunakan computer vision system. Data kualitas tomat diperoleh dari analisis di laboratorium. Struktur model JST didasarkan pada jaringan feedforward backpropagation dengan berbagai fungsi pelatihan, yaitu gradient descent (traingd, gradient descent dengan resilient backpropagation (trainrp, Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfrab dan Shanno (BFGS quasi-Newton (trainbfg, serta Levenberg Marquardt (trainlm. Fungsi pelatihan yang terbaik adalah menggunakan trainlm, serta pada struktur jaringan digunakan fungsi aktivasi logsig pada lapisan tersembunyi dan linier (purelin pada lapisan keluaran. dengan 1000 epoch. Nilai koefisien korelasi (r pada tahap pelatihan dan validasi
Salli F. Dymond; W. Michael Aust; Steven P. Prisley; Mark H. Eisenbies; James M. Vose
2013-01-01
Throughout the country, foresters are continually looking at the effects of logging and forest roads on stream discharge and overall stream health. In the Pacific Northwest, a distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM) has been used to predict the effects of logging on peak discharge in mountainous regions. DHSVM uses elevation, meteorological, vegetation, and...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Puddu Paolo
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm
Modeling the citation network by network cosmology.
Xie, Zheng; Ouyang, Zhenzheng; Zhang, Pengyuan; Yi, Dongyun; Kong, Dexing
2015-01-01
Citation between papers can be treated as a causal relationship. In addition, some citation networks have a number of similarities to the causal networks in network cosmology, e.g., the similar in-and out-degree distributions. Hence, it is possible to model the citation network using network cosmology. The casual network models built on homogenous spacetimes have some restrictions when describing some phenomena in citation networks, e.g., the hot papers receive more citations than other simultaneously published papers. We propose an inhomogenous causal network model to model the citation network, the connection mechanism of which well expresses some features of citation. The node growth trend and degree distributions of the generated networks also fit those of some citation networks well.
Gu, Tingwei; Kong, Deren; Jiang, Jian; Shang, Fei; Chen, Jing
2016-12-01
This paper applies back propagation neural network (BPNN) optimized by genetic algorithm (GA) for the prediction of pressure generated by a drop-weight device and the quasi-static calibration of piezoelectric high-pressure sensors for the measurement of propellant powder gas pressure. The method can effectively overcome the slow convergence and local minimum problems of BPNN. Based on test data of quasi-static comparison calibration method, a mathematical model between each parameter of drop-weight device and peak pressure and pulse width was established, through which the practical quasi-static calibration without continuously using expensive reference sensors could be realized. Compared with multiple linear regression method, the GA-BPNN model has higher prediction accuracy and stability. The percentages of prediction error of peak pressure and pulse width are less than 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gosukonda Ramana
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Artificial neural networks (ANN and traditional regression models were developed for prediction of thermal properties of sweet sorghum bagasse as a function of moisture content and room temperature. Predictions were made for three thermal properties: 1 thermal conductivity, 2 volumetric specific heat, and 3 thermal diffusivity. Each thermal property had five levels of moisture content (8.52%, 12.93%, 18.94%, 24.63%, and 28.62%, w. b. and room temperature as inputs. Data were sub-partitioned for training, testing, and validation of models. Backpropagation (BP and Kalman Filter (KF learning algorithms were employed to develop nonparametric models between input and output data sets. Statistical indices including correlation coefficient (R between actual and predicted outputs were produced for selecting the suitable models. Prediction plots for thermal properties indicated that the ANN models had better accuracy from unseen patterns as compared to regression models. In general, ANN models were able to strongly generalize and interpolate unseen patterns within the domain of training.
Modeling Epidemic Network Failures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova
2013-01-01
This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....
Predicting Community Evolution in Social Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stanisław Saganowski
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Nowadays, sustained development of different social media can be observed worldwide. One of the relevant research domains intensively explored recently is analysis of social communities existing in social media as well as prediction of their future evolution taking into account collected historical evolution chains. These evolution chains proposed in the paper contain group states in the previous time frames and its historical transitions that were identified using one out of two methods: Stable Group Changes Identification (SGCI and Group Evolution Discovery (GED. Based on the observed evolution chains of various length, structural network features are extracted, validated and selected as well as used to learn classification models. The experimental studies were performed on three real datasets with different profile: DBLP, Facebook and Polish blogosphere. The process of group prediction was analysed with respect to different classifiers as well as various descriptive feature sets extracted from evolution chains of different length. The results revealed that, in general, the longer evolution chains the better predictive abilities of the classification models. However, chains of length 3 to 7 enabled the GED-based method to almost reach its maximum possible prediction quality. For SGCI, this value was at the level of 3–5 last periods.
Artificial neural network modelling
Samarasinghe, Sandhya
2016-01-01
This book covers theoretical aspects as well as recent innovative applications of Artificial Neural networks (ANNs) in natural, environmental, biological, social, industrial and automated systems. It presents recent results of ANNs in modelling small, large and complex systems under three categories, namely, 1) Networks, Structure Optimisation, Robustness and Stochasticity 2) Advances in Modelling Biological and Environmental Systems and 3) Advances in Modelling Social and Economic Systems. The book aims at serving undergraduates, postgraduates and researchers in ANN computational modelling. .
Pai, Tzu-Yi; Lin, Kae-Long; Shie, Je-Lung; Chang, Tien-Chin; Chen, Bor-Yann
2011-03-01
A grey model (GM) and an artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to predict co-melting temperature of municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) fly ash and sewage sludge ash (SSA) during formation of modified slag. The results indicated that in the aspect of model prediction, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPEs) were between 1.69 and 13.20% when adopting seven different GM (1, N) models. The MAPE were 1.59 and 1.31% when GM (1, 1) and rolling grey model (RGM (1, 1)) were adopted. The MAPEs fell within the range of 0.04 and 0.50% using different types of ANN. In GMs, the MAPE of 1.31% was found to be the lowest when using RGM (1, 1) to predict co-melting temperature. This value was higher than those of ANN2-1 to ANN8-1 by 1.27, 1.25, 1.24, 1.18, 1.16, 1.14 and 0.81%, respectively. GM only required a small amount of data (at least four data). Therefore, GM could be applied successfully in predicting the co-melting temperature of MSWI fly ash and SSA when no sufficient information is available. It also indicates that both the composition of MSWI fly ash and SSA could be applied on the prediction of co-melting temperature.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vasudevan, M.; Raj, B.; Prasad Rao, K.
2005-01-01
Quantitative models describing the effect of weld composition on the solidification mode, ferrite content and process parameters on the weld bead geometry are necessary in order to design composition of the welding consumable to ensure primary ferritic solidification mode, proper ferrite content and to ensure right choice of process parameters to achieve good bead geometry. A quantitative model on sensitisation behaviour of austenitic stainless steels is also necessary to optimise the composition of the austenitic stainless steel and to limit the strain on the material in order to enhance the resistance to sensitisation. The present paper discuss the development of quantitative models using artificial neural networks to correlate weld metal composition with solidification mode, process parameter with weld bead geometry and time for sensitisation with composition, strain in the material before welding and the temperature of exposure in austenitic stainless steels. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Grazia De Giorgi
2014-08-01
Full Text Available A high penetration of wind energy into the electricity market requires a parallel development of efficient wind power forecasting models. Different hybrid forecasting methods were applied to wind power prediction, using historical data and numerical weather predictions (NWP. A comparative study was carried out for the prediction of the power production of a wind farm located in complex terrain. The performances of Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM with Wavelet Decomposition (WD were evaluated at different time horizons and compared to hybrid Artificial Neural Network (ANN-based methods. It is acknowledged that hybrid methods based on LS-SVM with WD mostly outperform other methods. A decomposition of the commonly known root mean square error was beneficial for a better understanding of the origin of the differences between prediction and measurement and to compare the accuracy of the different models. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out in order to underline the impact that each input had in the network training process for ANN. In the case of ANN with the WD technique, the sensitivity analysis was repeated on each component obtained by the decomposition.
Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haiyang Yu
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs, for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs and long short-term memory (LSTM neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.
Ansari, Kutubuddin; Panda, Sampad Kumar; Corumluoglu, Ozsen
2018-03-01
The present study examines the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) variations in the lower mid-latitude Turkish region from the Turkish permanent GNSS network (TPGN) and International GNSS Services (IGS) observations during the years 2009 to 2017. The corresponding vertical TEC (VTEC) predicted by Kriging and NeQuick-2 models are evaluated to realize their efficacy over the country. We studied the diurnal, seasonal and spatial pattern of VTEC variation and tried to estimate by a new mathematical model using the long term of 9 years VTEC data. The diurnal variation of VTEC demonstrates a normal trend with its gradual enhancement from dawn to attain a peak around 09:00-14.00 UT and reaching the minimum level after 22.00 UT. The seasonal behavior of VTEC indicates a strong semi-annual variation of VTEC with maxima in September equinox followed by March equinox and minima in June solstice followed by December solstice. Also, the spatial variation in VTEC depicts a meaningful longitudinal/latitudinal pattern altering with seasons. It decreases longitudinally from the west to the east during March equinox and June solstice increases with latitude. The comparative analysis among the GNSS-VTEC, Kriging, NeQuick and the proposed mathematical model are evaluated with the help one way ANOVA test. The analysis shows that the null hypothesis of the models during storm and quiet days are accepted and suggesting that all models are statistically significantly equivalent from each other. We believe the outcomes from this study would complement towards a relatively better understanding of the lower mid-latitude VTEC variation over the Turkish region and analogous latitudes over the globe.
A link prediction method for heterogeneous networks based on BP neural network
Li, Ji-chao; Zhao, Dan-ling; Ge, Bing-Feng; Yang, Ke-Wei; Chen, Ying-Wu
2018-04-01
Most real-world systems, composed of different types of objects connected via many interconnections, can be abstracted as various complex heterogeneous networks. Link prediction for heterogeneous networks is of great significance for mining missing links and reconfiguring networks according to observed information, with considerable applications in, for example, friend and location recommendations and disease-gene candidate detection. In this paper, we put forward a novel integrated framework, called MPBP (Meta-Path feature-based BP neural network model), to predict multiple types of links for heterogeneous networks. More specifically, the concept of meta-path is introduced, followed by the extraction of meta-path features for heterogeneous networks. Next, based on the extracted meta-path features, a supervised link prediction model is built with a three-layer BP neural network. Then, the solution algorithm of the proposed link prediction model is put forward to obtain predicted results by iteratively training the network. Last, numerical experiments on the dataset of examples of a gene-disease network and a combat network are conducted to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed MPBP. It shows that the MPBP with very good performance is superior to the baseline methods.
Archaeological predictive model set.
2015-03-01
This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...
Tarazona, José L; Guerrero, Jáder; Cabanzo, Rafael; Mejía-Ospino, E
2012-03-01
A predictive model to determine the concentration of nickel and vanadium in vacuum residues of Colombian crude oils using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) with nodes distributed in multiple layers (multilayer perceptron) is presented. ANN inputs are intensity values in the vicinity of the emission lines 300.248, 301.200 and 305.081 nm of the Ni(I), and 309.310, 310.229, and 311.070 nm of the V(II). The effects of varying number of nodes and the initial weights and biases in the ANNs were systematically explored. Average relative error of calibration/prediction (REC/REP) and average relative standard deviation (RSD) metrics were used to evaluate the performance of the ANN in the prediction of concentrations of two elements studied here. © 2012 Optical Society of America
Financial time series prediction using spiking neural networks.
Reid, David; Hussain, Abir Jaafar; Tawfik, Hissam
2014-01-01
In this paper a novel application of a particular type of spiking neural network, a Polychronous Spiking Network, was used for financial time series prediction. It is argued that the inherent temporal capabilities of this type of network are suited to non-stationary data such as this. The performance of the spiking neural network was benchmarked against three systems: two "traditional", rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network and a Dynamic Ridge Polynomial neural network, and a standard Linear Predictor Coefficients model. For this comparison three non-stationary and noisy time series were used: IBM stock data; US/Euro exchange rate data, and the price of Brent crude oil. The experiments demonstrated favourable prediction results for the Spiking Neural Network in terms of Annualised Return and prediction error for 5-Step ahead predictions. These results were also supported by other relevant metrics such as Maximum Drawdown and Signal-To-Noise ratio. This work demonstrated the applicability of the Polychronous Spiking Network to financial data forecasting and this in turn indicates the potential of using such networks over traditional systems in difficult to manage non-stationary environments.
Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.
1976-01-01
Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.
Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Wang
2016-01-01
(ERNN, the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.
Prediction of Electricity Usage Using Convolutional Neural Networks
Hansen, Martin
2017-01-01
Master's thesis Information- and communication technology IKT590 - University of Agder 2017 Convolutional Neural Networks are overwhelmingly accurate when attempting to predict numbers using the famous MNIST-dataset. In this paper, we are attempting to transcend these results for time- series forecasting, and compare them with several regression mod- els. The Convolutional Neural Network model predicted the same value through the entire time lapse in contrast with the other ...
Baasch, B.; M"uller, H.; von Dobeneck, T.
2018-04-01
In this work we present a new methodology to predict grain-size distributions from geophysical data. Specifically, electric conductivity and magnetic susceptibility of seafloor sediments recovered from electromagnetic profiling data are used to predict grain-size distributions along shelf-wide survey lines. Field data from the NW Iberian shelf are investigated and reveal a strong relation between the electromagnetic properties and grain-size distribution. The here presented workflow combines unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques. Nonnegative matrix factorisation is used to determine grain-size end-members from sediment surface samples. Four end-members were found which well represent the variety of sediments in the study area. A radial-basis function network modified for prediction of compositional data is then used to estimate the abundances of these end-members from the electromagnetic properties. The end-members together with their predicted abundances are finally back transformed to grain-size distributions. A minimum spatial variation constraint is implemented in the training of the network to avoid overfitting and to respect the spatial distribution of sediment patterns. The predicted models are tested via leave-one-out cross-validation revealing high prediction accuracy with coefficients of determination (R2) between 0.76 and 0.89. The predicted grain-size distributions represent the well-known sediment facies and patterns on the NW Iberian shelf and provide new insights into their distribution, transition and dynamics. This study suggests that electromagnetic benthic profiling in combination with machine learning techniques is a powerful tool to estimate grain-size distribution of marine sediments.
Characterizing and predicting the robustness of power-law networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
LaRocca, Sarah; Guikema, Seth D.
2015-01-01
Power-law networks such as the Internet, terrorist cells, species relationships, and cellular metabolic interactions are susceptible to node failures, yet maintaining network connectivity is essential for network functionality. Disconnection of the network leads to fragmentation and, in some cases, collapse of the underlying system. However, the influences of the topology of networks on their ability to withstand node failures are poorly understood. Based on a study of the response of 2000 randomly-generated power-law networks to node failures, we find that networks with higher nodal degree and clustering coefficient, lower betweenness centrality, and lower variability in path length and clustering coefficient maintain their cohesion better during such events. We also find that network robustness, i.e., the ability to withstand node failures, can be accurately predicted a priori for power-law networks across many fields. These results provide a basis for designing new, more robust networks, improving the robustness of existing networks such as the Internet and cellular metabolic pathways, and efficiently degrading networks such as terrorist cells. - Highlights: • Examine relationship between network topology and robustness to failures. • Relationship is statistically significant for scale-free networks. • Use statistical models to estimate robustness to failures for real-world networks
Network traffic anomaly prediction using Artificial Neural Network
Ciptaningtyas, Hening Titi; Fatichah, Chastine; Sabila, Altea
2017-03-01
As the excessive increase of internet usage, the malicious software (malware) has also increase significantly. Malware is software developed by hacker for illegal purpose(s), such as stealing data and identity, causing computer damage, or denying service to other user[1]. Malware which attack computer or server often triggers network traffic anomaly phenomena. Based on Sophos's report[2], Indonesia is the riskiest country of malware attack and it also has high network traffic anomaly. This research uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict network traffic anomaly based on malware attack in Indonesia which is recorded by Id-SIRTII/CC (Indonesia Security Incident Response Team on Internet Infrastructure/Coordination Center). The case study is the highest malware attack (SQL injection) which has happened in three consecutive years: 2012, 2013, and 2014[4]. The data series is preprocessed first, then the network traffic anomaly is predicted using Artificial Neural Network and using two weight update algorithms: Gradient Descent and Momentum. Error of prediction is calculated using Mean Squared Error (MSE) [7]. The experimental result shows that MSE for SQL Injection is 0.03856. So, this approach can be used to predict network traffic anomaly.
Neural network for prediction of superheater fireside corrosion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Makkonen, P. [Foster Wheeler Energia Oy, Karhula R and D Center, Karhula (Finland)
1998-12-31
Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses to the power companies. If the corrosion could be reliably predicted, new power plants could be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions could be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. If relations between inputs and the output are poorly known, conventional models depending on corrosion theories will fail. A prediction model based on a neural network is capable of learning from errors and improving its performance as the amount of data increases. The neural network developed during this study predicts superheater corrosion with 80 % accuracy at early stage of the project. (orig.) 10 refs.
Neural network for prediction of superheater fireside corrosion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Makkonen, P [Foster Wheeler Energia Oy, Karhula R and D Center, Karhula (Finland)
1999-12-31
Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses to the power companies. If the corrosion could be reliably predicted, new power plants could be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions could be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. If relations between inputs and the output are poorly known, conventional models depending on corrosion theories will fail. A prediction model based on a neural network is capable of learning from errors and improving its performance as the amount of data increases. The neural network developed during this study predicts superheater corrosion with 80 % accuracy at early stage of the project. (orig.) 10 refs.
Li, Huixia; Luo, Miyang; Zheng, Jianfei; Luo, Jiayou; Zeng, Rong; Feng, Na; Du, Qiyun; Fang, Junqun
2017-02-01
An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the risks of congenital heart disease (CHD) in pregnant women.This hospital-based case-control study involved 119 CHD cases and 239 controls all recruited from birth defect surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province between July 2013 and June 2014. All subjects were interviewed face-to-face to fill in a questionnaire that covered 36 CHD-related variables. The 358 subjects were randomly divided into a training set and a testing set at the ratio of 85:15. The training set was used to identify the significant predictors of CHD by univariate logistic regression analyses and develop a standard feed-forward back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model for the prediction of CHD. The testing set was used to test and evaluate the performance of the ANN model. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed on SPSS 18.0. The ANN models were developed on Matlab 7.1.The univariate logistic regression identified 15 predictors that were significantly associated with CHD, including education level (odds ratio = 0.55), gravidity (1.95), parity (2.01), history of abnormal reproduction (2.49), family history of CHD (5.23), maternal chronic disease (4.19), maternal upper respiratory tract infection (2.08), environmental pollution around maternal dwelling place (3.63), maternal exposure to occupational hazards (3.53), maternal mental stress (2.48), paternal chronic disease (4.87), paternal exposure to occupational hazards (2.51), intake of vegetable/fruit (0.45), intake of fish/shrimp/meat/egg (0.59), and intake of milk/soymilk (0.55). After many trials, we selected a 3-layer BPNN model with 15, 12, and 1 neuron in the input, hidden, and output layers, respectively, as the best prediction model. The prediction model has accuracies of 0.91 and 0.86 on the training and testing sets, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and Yuden Index on the testing set (training set) are 0.78 (0.83), 0.90 (0.95), and 0
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Babak Fakhim
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In this study the feasibility of using the artificial neural networks modeling in predicting the effect of MWCNT on amount of cement hydration products and improving the quality of cement hydration products microstructures of cement paste was investigated. To determine the amount of cement hydration products thermogravimetric analysis was used. Two critical parameters of TGA test are PHPloss and CHloss. In order to model the TGA test results, the ANN modeling was performed on these parameters separately. In this study, 60% of data are used for model calibration and the remaining 40% are used for model verification. Based on the highest efficiency coefficient and the lowest root mean square error, the best ANN model was chosen. The results of TGA test implied that the cement hydration is enhanced in the presence of the optimum percentage (0.3 wt% of MWCNT. Moreover, since the efficiency coefficient of the modeling results of CH and PHP loss in both the calibration and verification stages was more than 0.96, it was concluded that the ANN could be used as an accurate tool for modeling the TGA results. Another finding of this study was that the ANN prediction in higher ages was more precise.
Predicting and Controlling Complex Networks
2015-06-22
ubiquitous in nature and fundamental to evolution in ecosystems. However, a significant chal- lenge remains in understanding biodiversity since, by the...networks and control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 3.4 Pattern formation, synchronization and outbreak of biodiversity in cyclically...Ni, Y.-C. Lai, and C. Grebogi, “Pattern formation, synchronization and outbreak of biodiversity in cyclically competing games,” Physical Review E 83
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laisen Nie
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Wireless mesh network is prevalent for providing a decentralized access for users and other intelligent devices. Meanwhile, it can be employed as the infrastructure of the last few miles connectivity for various network applications, for example, Internet of Things (IoT and mobile networks. For a wireless mesh backbone network, it has obtained extensive attention because of its large capacity and low cost. Network traffic prediction is important for network planning and routing configurations that are implemented to improve the quality of service for users. This paper proposes a network traffic prediction method based on a deep learning architecture and the Spatiotemporal Compressive Sensing method. The proposed method first adopts discrete wavelet transform to extract the low-pass component of network traffic that describes the long-range dependence of itself. Then, a prediction model is built by learning a deep architecture based on the deep belief network from the extracted low-pass component. Otherwise, for the remaining high-pass component that expresses the gusty and irregular fluctuations of network traffic, the Spatiotemporal Compressive Sensing method is adopted to predict it. Based on the predictors of two components, we can obtain a predictor of network traffic. From the simulation, the proposed prediction method outperforms three existing methods.
Inverse and Predictive Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-09-27
The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jayasurya, K.; Fung, G.; Yu, S.; Dehing-Oberije, C.; De Ruysscher, D.; Hope, A.; De Neve, W.; Lievens, Y.; Lambin, P.; Dekker, A. L. A. J.
2010-01-01
Purpose: Classic statistical and machine learning models such as support vector machines (SVMs) can be used to predict cancer outcome, but often only perform well if all the input variables are known, which is unlikely in the medical domain. Bayesian network (BN) models have a natural ability to reason under uncertainty and might handle missing data better. In this study, the authors hypothesize that a BN model can predict two-year survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients as accurately as SVM, but will predict survival more accurately when data are missing. Methods: A BN and SVM model were trained on 322 inoperable NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy from Maastricht and validated in three independent data sets of 35, 47, and 33 patients from Ghent, Leuven, and Toronto. Missing variables occurred in the data set with only 37, 28, and 24 patients having a complete data set. Results: The BN model structure and parameter learning identified gross tumor volume size, performance status, and number of positive lymph nodes on a PET as prognostic factors for two-year survival. When validated in the full validation set of Ghent, Leuven, and Toronto, the BN model had an AUC of 0.77, 0.72, and 0.70, respectively. A SVM model based on the same variables had an overall worse performance (AUC 0.71, 0.68, and 0.69) especially in the Ghent set, which had the highest percentage of missing the important GTV size data. When only patients with complete data sets were considered, the BN and SVM model performed more alike. Conclusions: Within the limitations of this study, the hypothesis is supported that BN models are better at handling missing data than SVM models and are therefore more suitable for the medical domain. Future works have to focus on improving the BN performance by including more patients, more variables, and more diversity.
Kumari, Amrita; Das, Suchandan Kumar; Srivastava, Prem Kumar
2016-04-01
Application of computational intelligence for predicting industrial processes has been in extensive use in various industrial sectors including power sector industry. An ANN model using multi-layer perceptron philosophy has been proposed in this paper to predict the deposition behaviors of oxide scale on waterwall tubes of a coal fired boiler. The input parameters comprises of boiler water chemistry and associated operating parameters, such as, pH, alkalinity, total dissolved solids, specific conductivity, iron and dissolved oxygen concentration of the feed water and local heat flux on boiler tube. An efficient gradient based network optimization algorithm has been employed to minimize neural predictions errors. Effects of heat flux, iron content, pH and the concentrations of total dissolved solids in feed water and other operating variables on the scale deposition behavior have been studied. It has been observed that heat flux, iron content and pH of the feed water have a relatively prime influence on the rate of oxide scale deposition in water walls of an Indian boiler. Reasonably good agreement between ANN model predictions and the measured values of oxide scale deposition rate has been observed which is corroborated by the regression fit between these values.
Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole
1998-01-01
The paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems including open loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed extended for the control of non......-linear systems. GPC is model-based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis on an efficient Quasi......-Newton optimization algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....
Predicting Hidden Links in Supply Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Brintrup
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Manufacturing companies often lack visibility of the procurement interdependencies between the suppliers within their supply network. However, knowledge of these interdependencies is useful to plan for potential operational disruptions. In this paper, we develop the Supply Network Link Predictor (SNLP method to infer supplier interdependencies using the manufacturer’s incomplete knowledge of the network. SNLP uses topological data to extract relational features from the known network to train a classifier for predicting potential links. Using a test case from the automotive industry, four features are extracted: (i number of existing supplier links, (ii overlaps between supplier product portfolios, (iii product outsourcing associations, and (iv likelihood of buyers purchasing from two suppliers together. Naïve Bayes and Logistic Regression are then employed to predict whether these features can help predict interdependencies between two suppliers. Our results show that these features can indeed be used to predict interdependencies in the network and that predictive accuracy is maximised by (i and (iii. The findings give rise to the exciting possibility of using data analytics for improving supply chain visibility. We then proceed to discuss to what extent such approaches can be adopted and their limitations, highlighting next steps for future work in this area.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amir Javaheri
2018-01-01
Full Text Available This study proposes a framework that (i uses data assimilation as a post processing technique to increase the accuracy of water depth prediction, (ii updates streamflow generated by the National Water Model (NWM, and (iii proposes a scope for updating the initial condition of continental-scale hydrologic models. Predicted flows by the NWM for each stream were converted to the water depth using the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND method. The water level measurements from the Iowa Flood Inundation System (a test bed sensor network in this study were converted to water depths and then assimilated into the HAND model using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF. The results showed that after assimilating the water depth using the EnKF, for a flood event during 2015, the normalized root mean square error was reduced by 0.50 m (51% for training tributaries. Comparison of the updated modeled water stage values with observations at testing locations showed that the proposed methodology was also effective on the tributaries with no observations. The overall error reduced from 0.89 m to 0.44 m for testing tributaries. The updated depths were then converted to streamflow using rating curves generated by the HAND model. The error between updated flows and observations at United States Geological Survey (USGS station at Squaw Creek decreased by 35%. For future work, updated streamflows could also be used to dynamically update initial conditions in the continental-scale National Water Model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vincent Frappier
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Normal mode analysis (NMA methods are widely used to study dynamic aspects of protein structures. Two critical components of NMA methods are coarse-graining in the level of simplification used to represent protein structures and the choice of potential energy functional form. There is a trade-off between speed and accuracy in different choices. In one extreme one finds accurate but slow molecular-dynamics based methods with all-atom representations and detailed atom potentials. On the other extreme, fast elastic network model (ENM methods with Cα-only representations and simplified potentials that based on geometry alone, thus oblivious to protein sequence. Here we present ENCoM, an Elastic Network Contact Model that employs a potential energy function that includes a pairwise atom-type non-bonded interaction term and thus makes it possible to consider the effect of the specific nature of amino-acids on dynamics within the context of NMA. ENCoM is as fast as existing ENM methods and outperforms such methods in the generation of conformational ensembles. Here we introduce a new application for NMA methods with the use of ENCoM in the prediction of the effect of mutations on protein stability. While existing methods are based on machine learning or enthalpic considerations, the use of ENCoM, based on vibrational normal modes, is based on entropic considerations. This represents a novel area of application for NMA methods and a novel approach for the prediction of the effect of mutations. We compare ENCoM to a large number of methods in terms of accuracy and self-consistency. We show that the accuracy of ENCoM is comparable to that of the best existing methods. We show that existing methods are biased towards the prediction of destabilizing mutations and that ENCoM is less biased at predicting stabilizing mutations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Anand
2015-09-01
Full Text Available The present study focuses on friction welding process parameter optimization using a hybrid technique of ANN and different optimization algorithms. This optimization techniques are not only for the effective process modelling, but also to illustrate the correlation between the input and output responses of the friction welding of Incoloy 800H. In addition the focus is also to obtain optimal strength and hardness of joints with minimum burn off length. ANN based approaches could model this welding process of INCOLOY 800H in both forward and reverse directions efficiently, which are required for the automation of the same. Five different training algorithms were used to train ANN for both forward and reverse mapping and ANN tuned force approach was used for optimization. The paper makes a robust comparison of the performances of the five algorithms employing standard statistical indices. The results showed that GANN with 4-9-3 for forward and 4-7-3 for reverse mapping arrangement could outperform the other four approaches in most of the cases but not in all. Experiments on tensile strength (TS, microhardness (H and burn off length (BOL of the joints were performed with optimised parameter. It is concluded that this ANN model with genetic algorithm may provide good ability to predict the friction welding process parameters to weld Incoloy 800H.
CNNcon: improved protein contact maps prediction using cascaded neural networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wang Ding
Full Text Available BACKGROUNDS: Despite continuing progress in X-ray crystallography and high-field NMR spectroscopy for determination of three-dimensional protein structures, the number of unsolved and newly discovered sequences grows much faster than that of determined structures. Protein modeling methods can possibly bridge this huge sequence-structure gap with the development of computational science. A grand challenging problem is to predict three-dimensional protein structure from its primary structure (residues sequence alone. However, predicting residue contact maps is a crucial and promising intermediate step towards final three-dimensional structure prediction. Better predictions of local and non-local contacts between residues can transform protein sequence alignment to structure alignment, which can finally improve template based three-dimensional protein structure predictors greatly. METHODS: CNNcon, an improved multiple neural networks based contact map predictor using six sub-networks and one final cascade-network, was developed in this paper. Both the sub-networks and the final cascade-network were trained and tested with their corresponding data sets. While for testing, the target protein was first coded and then input to its corresponding sub-networks for prediction. After that, the intermediate results were input to the cascade-network to finish the final prediction. RESULTS: The CNNcon can accurately predict 58.86% in average of contacts at a distance cutoff of 8 Å for proteins with lengths ranging from 51 to 450. The comparison results show that the present method performs better than the compared state-of-the-art predictors. Particularly, the prediction accuracy keeps steady with the increase of protein sequence length. It indicates that the CNNcon overcomes the thin density problem, with which other current predictors have trouble. This advantage makes the method valuable to the prediction of long length proteins. As a result, the effective
He, Yan-Lin; Xu, Yuan; Geng, Zhi-Qiang; Zhu, Qun-Xiong
2016-03-01
In this paper, a hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) is proposed. Firstly, an improved functional link neural network with small norm of expanded weights and high input-output correlation (SNEWHIOC-FLNN) was proposed for enhancing the generalization performance of FLNN. Unlike the traditional FLNN, the expanded variables of the original inputs are not directly used as the inputs in the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model. The original inputs are attached to some small norm of expanded weights. As a result, the correlation coefficient between some of the expanded variables and the outputs is enhanced. The larger the correlation coefficient is, the more relevant the expanded variables tend to be. In the end, the expanded variables with larger correlation coefficient are selected as the inputs to improve the performance of the traditional FLNN. In order to test the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model, three UCI (University of California, Irvine) regression datasets named Housing, Concrete Compressive Strength (CCS), and Yacht Hydro Dynamics (YHD) are selected. Then a hybrid model based on the improved FLNN integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) was built. In IFLNN-PLS model, the connection weights are calculated using the partial least square method but not the error back propagation algorithm. Lastly, IFLNN-PLS was developed as an intelligent measurement model for accurately predicting the key variables in the Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) process and the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) process. Simulation results illustrated that the IFLNN-PLS could significant improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Predicting Positive and Negative Relationships in Large Social Networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guan-Nan Wang
Full Text Available In a social network, users hold and express positive and negative attitudes (e.g. support/opposition towards other users. Those attitudes exhibit some kind of binary relationships among the users, which play an important role in social network analysis. However, some of those binary relationships are likely to be latent as the scale of social network increases. The essence of predicting latent binary relationships have recently began to draw researchers' attention. In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for predicting positive and negative relationships in social networks inspired by structural balance theory and social status theory. More specifically, we show that when two users in the network have fewer common neighbors, the prediction accuracy of the relationship between them deteriorates. Accordingly, in the training phase, we propose a segment-based training framework to divide the training data into two subsets according to the number of common neighbors between users, and build a prediction model for each subset based on support vector machine (SVM. Moreover, to deal with large-scale social network data, we employ a sampling strategy that selects small amount of training data while maintaining high accuracy of prediction. We compare our algorithm with traditional algorithms and adaptive boosting of them. Experimental results of typical data sets show that our algorithm can deal with large social networks and consistently outperforms other methods.
Predicting Positive and Negative Relationships in Large Social Networks.
Wang, Guan-Nan; Gao, Hui; Chen, Lian; Mensah, Dennis N A; Fu, Yan
2015-01-01
In a social network, users hold and express positive and negative attitudes (e.g. support/opposition) towards other users. Those attitudes exhibit some kind of binary relationships among the users, which play an important role in social network analysis. However, some of those binary relationships are likely to be latent as the scale of social network increases. The essence of predicting latent binary relationships have recently began to draw researchers' attention. In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for predicting positive and negative relationships in social networks inspired by structural balance theory and social status theory. More specifically, we show that when two users in the network have fewer common neighbors, the prediction accuracy of the relationship between them deteriorates. Accordingly, in the training phase, we propose a segment-based training framework to divide the training data into two subsets according to the number of common neighbors between users, and build a prediction model for each subset based on support vector machine (SVM). Moreover, to deal with large-scale social network data, we employ a sampling strategy that selects small amount of training data while maintaining high accuracy of prediction. We compare our algorithm with traditional algorithms and adaptive boosting of them. Experimental results of typical data sets show that our algorithm can deal with large social networks and consistently outperforms other methods.
Link Label Prediction in Signed Citation Network
Akujuobi, Uchenna
2016-04-12
Link label prediction is the problem of predicting the missing labels or signs of all the unlabeled edges in a network. For signed networks, these labels can either be positive or negative. In recent years, different algorithms have been proposed such as using regression, trust propagation and matrix factorization. These approaches have tried to solve the problem of link label prediction by using ideas from social theories, where most of them predict a single missing label given that labels of other edges are known. However, in most real-world social graphs, the number of labeled edges is usually less than that of unlabeled edges. Therefore, predicting a single edge label at a time would require multiple runs and is more computationally demanding. In this thesis, we look at link label prediction problem on a signed citation network with missing edge labels. Our citation network consists of papers from three major machine learning and data mining conferences together with their references, and edges showing the relationship between them. An edge in our network is labeled either positive (dataset relevant) if the reference is based on the dataset used in the paper or negative otherwise. We present three approaches to predict the missing labels. The first approach converts the label prediction problem into a standard classification problem. We then, generate a set of features for each edge and then adopt Support Vector Machines in solving the classification problem. For the second approach, we formalize the graph such that the edges are represented as nodes with links showing similarities between them. We then adopt a label propagation method to propagate the labels on known nodes to those with unknown labels. In the third approach, we adopt a PageRank approach where we rank the nodes according to the number of incoming positive and negative edges, after which we set a threshold. Based on the ranks, we can infer an edge would be positive if it goes a node above the
Lin, Y.P.; Chu, H.J.; Wu, C.F.; Verburg, P.H.
2011-01-01
The objective of this study is to compare the abilities of logistic, auto-logistic and artificial neural network (ANN) models for quantifying the relationships between land uses and their drivers. In addition, the application of the results obtained by the three techniques is tested in a dynamic
System Identification, Prediction, Simulation and Control with Neural Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, O.
1997-01-01
a Gauss-Newton search direction is applied. 3) Amongst numerous model types, often met in control applications, only the Non-linear ARMAX (NARMAX) model, representing input/output description, is examined. A simulated example confirms that a neural network has the potential to perform excellent System......The intention of this paper is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... study of the networks themselves. With this end in view the following restrictions have been made: 1) Amongst numerous neural network structures, only the Multi Layer Perceptron (a feed-forward network) is applied. 2) Amongst numerous training algorithms, only the Recursive Prediction Error Method using...
Meta-path based heterogeneous combat network link prediction
Li, Jichao; Ge, Bingfeng; Yang, Kewei; Chen, Yingwu; Tan, Yuejin
2017-09-01
The combat system-of-systems in high-tech informative warfare, composed of many interconnected combat systems of different types, can be regarded as a type of complex heterogeneous network. Link prediction for heterogeneous combat networks (HCNs) is of significant military value, as it facilitates reconfiguring combat networks to represent the complex real-world network topology as appropriate with observed information. This paper proposes a novel integrated methodology framework called HCNMP (HCN link prediction based on meta-path) to predict multiple types of links simultaneously for an HCN. More specifically, the concept of HCN meta-paths is introduced, through which the HCNMP can accumulate information by extracting different features of HCN links for all the six defined types. Next, an HCN link prediction model, based on meta-path features, is built to predict all types of links of the HCN simultaneously. Then, the solution algorithm for the HCN link prediction model is proposed, in which the prediction results are obtained by iteratively updating with the newly predicted results until the results in the HCN converge or reach a certain maximum iteration number. Finally, numerical experiments on the dataset of a real HCN are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed HCNMP, in comparison with 30 baseline methods. The results show that the performance of the HCNMP is superior to those of the baseline methods.
Kaolin Quality Prediction from Samples: A Bayesian Network Approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rivas, T.; Taboada, J.; Ordonez, C.; Matias, J. M.
2009-01-01
We describe the results of an expert system applied to the evaluation of samples of kaolin for industrial use in paper or ceramic manufacture. Different machine learning techniques - classification trees, support vector machines and Bayesian networks - were applied with the aim of evaluating and comparing their interpretability and prediction capacities. The predictive capacity of these models for the samples analyzed was highly satisfactory, both for ceramic quality and paper quality. However, Bayesian networks generally proved to be the most useful technique for our study, as this approach combines good predictive capacity with excellent interpretability of the kaolin quality structure, as it graphically represents relationships between variables and facilitates what-if analyses.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Biyanto, Totok R. [Department of Engineering Physics, Institute Technology of Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia 60111 (Indonesia)
2016-06-03
Fouling in a heat exchanger in Crude Preheat Train (CPT) refinery is an unsolved problem that reduces the plant efficiency, increases fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emission. The fouling resistance behavior is very complex. It is difficult to develop a model using first principle equation to predict the fouling resistance due to different operating conditions and different crude blends. In this paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) with input structure using Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with eXogenous (NARX) is utilized to build the fouling resistance model in shell and tube heat exchanger (STHX). The input data of the model are flow rates and temperatures of the streams of the heat exchanger, physical properties of product and crude blend data. This model serves as a predicting tool to optimize operating conditions and preventive maintenance of STHX. The results show that the model can capture the complexity of fouling characteristics in heat exchanger due to thermodynamic conditions and variations in crude oil properties (blends). It was found that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are suitable to capture the nonlinearity and complexity of the STHX fouling resistance during phases of training and validation.
Wichaipanich, Noraset; Hozumi, Kornyanat; Supnithi, Pornchai; Tsugawa, Takuya
2017-06-01
This paper presents the development of Neural Network (NN) model for the prediction of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) at three ionosonde stations near the magnetic equator of Southeast Asia. Two of these stations including Chiang Mai (18.76°N, 98.93°E, dip angle 12.7°N) and Kototabang (0.2°S, 100.3°E, dip angle 10.1°S) are at the conjugate points while Chumphon (10.72°N, 99.37°E, dip angle 3.0°N) station is near the equator. To produce the model, the feed forward network with backpropagation algorithm is applied. The NN is trained with the daily hourly values of foF2 during 2004-2012, except 2009, and the selected input parameters, which affect the foF2 variability, include day number (DN), hour number (HR), solar zenith angle (C), geographic latitude (θ), magnetic inclination (I), magnetic declination (D) and angle of meridian (M) relative to the sub-solar point, the 7-day mean of F10.7 (F10.7_7), the 81-day mean of SSN (SSN_81) and the 2-day mean of Ap (Ap_2). The foF2 data of 2009 and 2013 are then used for testing the NN model during the foF2 interpolation and extrapolation, respectively. To examine the performance of the proposed NN, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the observed foF2, the proposed NN model and the IRI-2012 (CCIR and URSI options) model are compared. In general, the results show the same trends in foF2 variation between the models (NN and IRI-2012) and the observations in that they are higher during the day and lower at night. Besides, the results demonstrate that the proposed NN model can predict the foF2 values more closely during daytime than during nighttime as supported by the lower RMSE values during daytime (0.5 ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.0 for Chumphon and Kototabang, 0.7 ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.2 at Chiang Mai) and with the highest levels during nighttime (0.8 ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.5 for Chumphon and Kototabang, 1.2 ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.0 at Chiang Mai). Furthermore, the NN model predicts the foF2 values more accurately than the IRI model at the
Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex
2014-07-07
With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.
Network bandwidth utilization forecast model on high bandwidth networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yoo, Wuchert (William) [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
2015-03-30
With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2%. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.
Artificial neural network intelligent method for prediction
Trifonov, Roumen; Yoshinov, Radoslav; Pavlova, Galya; Tsochev, Georgi
2017-09-01
Accounting and financial classification and prediction problems are high challenge and researchers use different methods to solve them. Methods and instruments for short time prediction of financial operations using artificial neural network are considered. The methods, used for prediction of financial data as well as the developed forecasting system with neural network are described in the paper. The architecture of a neural network used four different technical indicators, which are based on the raw data and the current day of the week is presented. The network developed is used for forecasting movement of stock prices one day ahead and consists of an input layer, one hidden layer and an output layer. The training method is algorithm with back propagation of the error. The main advantage of the developed system is self-determination of the optimal topology of neural network, due to which it becomes flexible and more precise The proposed system with neural network is universal and can be applied to various financial instruments using only basic technical indicators as input data.
Optimal neural networks for protein-structure prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Head-Gordon, T.; Stillinger, F.H.
1993-01-01
The successful application of neural-network algorithms for prediction of protein structure is stymied by three problem areas: the sparsity of the database of known protein structures, poorly devised network architectures which make the input-output mapping opaque, and a global optimization problem in the multiple-minima space of the network variables. We present a simplified polypeptide model residing in two dimensions with only two amino-acid types, A and B, which allows the determination of the global energy structure for all possible sequences of pentamer, hexamer, and heptamer lengths. This model simplicity allows us to compile a complete structural database and to devise neural networks that reproduce the tertiary structure of all sequences with absolute accuracy and with the smallest number of network variables. These optimal networks reveal that the three problem areas are convoluted, but that thoughtful network designs can actually deconvolute these detrimental traits to provide network algorithms that genuinely impact on the ability of the network to generalize or learn the desired mappings. Furthermore, the two-dimensional polypeptide model shows sufficient chemical complexity so that transfer of neural-network technology to more realistic three-dimensional proteins is evident
Prasad, Archana; Prakash, Om; Mehrotra, Shakti; Khan, Feroz; Mathur, Ajay Kumar; Mathur, Archana
2017-01-01
An artificial neural network (ANN)-based modelling approach is used to determine the synergistic effect of five major components of growth medium (Mg, Cu, Zn, nitrate and sucrose) on improved in vitro biomass yield in multiple shoot cultures of Centella asiatica. The back propagation neural network (BPNN) was employed to predict optimal biomass accumulation in terms of growth index over a defined culture duration of 35 days. The four variable concentrations of five media components, i.e. MgSO 4 (0, 0.75, 1.5, 3.0 mM), ZnSO 4 (0, 15, 30, 60 μM), CuSO 4 (0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 μM), NO 3 (20, 30, 40, 60 mM) and sucrose (1, 3, 5, 7 %, w/v) were taken as inputs for the ANN model. The designed model was evaluated by performing three different sets of validation experiments that indicated a greater similarity between the target and predicted dataset. The results of the modelling experiment suggested that 1.5 mM Mg, 30 μM Zn, 0.1 μM Cu, 40 mM NO 3 and 6 % (w/v) sucrose were the respective optimal concentrations of the tested medium components for achieving maximum growth index of 1654.46 with high centelloside yield (62.37 mg DW/culture) in the cultured multiple shoots. This study can facilitate the generation of higher biomass of uniform, clean, good quality C. asiatica herb that can efficiently be utilized by pharmaceutical industries.
Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten
2013-01-01
an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...
Metabolic network prediction through pairwise rational kernels.
Roche-Lima, Abiel; Domaratzki, Michael; Fristensky, Brian
2014-09-26
Metabolic networks are represented by the set of metabolic pathways. Metabolic pathways are a series of biochemical reactions, in which the product (output) from one reaction serves as the substrate (input) to another reaction. Many pathways remain incompletely characterized. One of the major challenges of computational biology is to obtain better models of metabolic pathways. Existing models are dependent on the annotation of the genes. This propagates error accumulation when the pathways are predicted by incorrectly annotated genes. Pairwise classification methods are supervised learning methods used to classify new pair of entities. Some of these classification methods, e.g., Pairwise Support Vector Machines (SVMs), use pairwise kernels. Pairwise kernels describe similarity measures between two pairs of entities. Using pairwise kernels to handle sequence data requires long processing times and large storage. Rational kernels are kernels based on weighted finite-state transducers that represent similarity measures between sequences or automata. They have been effectively used in problems that handle large amount of sequence information such as protein essentiality, natural language processing and machine translations. We create a new family of pairwise kernels using weighted finite-state transducers (called Pairwise Rational Kernel (PRK)) to predict metabolic pathways from a variety of biological data. PRKs take advantage of the simpler representations and faster algorithms of transducers. Because raw sequence data can be used, the predictor model avoids the errors introduced by incorrect gene annotations. We then developed several experiments with PRKs and Pairwise SVM to validate our methods using the metabolic network of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. As a result, when PRKs are used, our method executes faster in comparison with other pairwise kernels. Also, when we use PRKs combined with other simple kernels that include evolutionary information, the accuracy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivana Đurđević Babić
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Student satisfaction with courses in academic institutions is an important issue and is recognized as a form of support in ensuring effective and quality education, as well as enhancing student course experience. This paper investigates whether there is a connection between student satisfaction with courses and log data on student courses in a virtual learning environment. Furthermore, it explores whether a successful classification model for predicting student satisfaction with course can be developed based on course log data and compares the results obtained from implemented methods. The research was conducted at the Faculty of Education in Osijek and included analysis of log data and course satisfaction on a sample of third and fourth year students. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP with different activation functions and Radial Basis Function (RBF neural networks as well as classification tree models were developed, trained and tested in order to classify students into one of two categories of course satisfaction. Type I and type II errors, and input variable importance were used for model comparison and classification accuracy. The results indicate that a successful classification model using tested methods can be created. The MLP model provides the highest average classification accuracy and the lowest preference in misclassification of students with a low level of course satisfaction, although a t-test for the difference in proportions showed that the difference in performance between the compared models is not statistically significant. Student involvement in forum discussions is recognized as a valuable predictor of student satisfaction with courses in all observed models.
Bongartz, Dominik
2015-11-19
© 2015 American Chemical Society. Sour natural gas currently requires expensive gas cleanup before it can be used in power generation because it contains large amounts of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and carbon dioxide (CO2) that entail a low heating value and highly corrosive combustion products. A potential alternative is to use the gas directly in a gas turbine process employing oxy-fuel combustion, which could eliminate the need for gas cleanup while also enabling the application of carbon capture and sequestration, possibly combined with enhanced oil recovery (EOR). However, the exact influence of an oxy-fuel environment on the combustion products of sour gas has not been quantified yet. In this work, we used a reactor network model for the combustor and the gas turbine together with our recently assembled and validated detailed chemical reaction mechanism for sour gas combustion to investigate the influence of some basic design parameters on the combustion products of natural gas and sour gas in CO2 or H2O diluted oxy-fuel combustion as well as in conventional air combustion. Our calculations show that oxy-fuel combustion produces up to 2 orders of magnitude less of the highly corrosive product sulfur trioxide (SO3) than air combustion, which clearly demonstrates its potential in handling sulfur containing fuels. Unlike in air combustion, in oxy-fuel combustion, SO3 is mainly formed in the flame zone of the combustor and is then consumed as the combustion products are cooled in the dilution zone of the combustor and the turbine. In oxy-fuel combustion, H2O dilution leads to a higher combustion efficiency than CO2 dilution. However, if the process is to be combined with EOR, CO2 dilution makes it easier to comply with the very low levels of oxygen (O2) required in the EOR stream. Our calculations also show that it might even be beneficial to operate slightly fuel-rich because this simultaneously decreases the O2 and SO3 concentration further. The flame zone
Prediction of Industrial Electric Energy Consumption in Anhui Province Based on GA-BP Neural Network
Zhang, Jiajing; Yin, Guodong; Ni, Youcong; Chen, Jinlan
2018-01-01
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electrical energy consumption, a prediction model of industrial electrical energy consumption was proposed based on genetic algorithm and neural network. The model use genetic algorithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and the model is used to predict the energy consumption of industrial power in Anhui Province, to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electric energy consumption in Anhui province. By comparing experiment of GA-BP prediction model and BP neural network model, the GA-BP model is more accurate with smaller number of neurons in the hidden layer.
Neural networks for predicting breeding values and genetic gains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabi Nunes Silva
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Analysis using Artificial Neural Networks has been described as an approach in the decision-making process that, although incipient, has been reported as presenting high potential for use in animal and plant breeding. In this study, we introduce the procedure of using the expanded data set for training the network. Wealso proposed using statistical parameters to estimate the breeding value of genotypes in simulated scenarios, in addition to the mean phenotypic value in a feed-forward back propagation multilayer perceptron network. After evaluating artificial neural network configurations, our results showed its superiority to estimates based on linear models, as well as its applicability in the genetic value prediction process. The results further indicated the good generalization performance of the neural network model in several additional validation experiments.
Rau, Hsiao-Hsien; Hsu, Chien-Yeh; Lin, Yu-An; Atique, Suleman; Fuad, Anis; Wei, Li-Ming; Hsu, Ming-Huei
2016-03-01
Diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk of liver cancer, and these two diseases are among the most common and important causes of morbidity and mortality in Taiwan. To use data mining techniques to develop a model for predicting the development of liver cancer within 6 years of diagnosis with type II diabetes. Data were obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan, which covers approximately 22 million people. In this study, we selected patients who were newly diagnosed with type II diabetes during the 2000-2003 periods, with no prior cancer diagnosis. We then used encrypted personal ID to perform data linkage with the cancer registry database to identify whether these patients were diagnosed with liver cancer. Finally, we identified 2060 cases and assigned them to a case group (patients diagnosed with liver cancer after diabetes) and a control group (patients with diabetes but no liver cancer). The risk factors were identified from the literature review and physicians' suggestion, then, chi-square test was conducted on each independent variable (or potential risk factor) for a comparison between patients with liver cancer and those without, those found to be significant were selected as the factors. We subsequently performed data training and testing to construct artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) prediction models. The dataset was randomly divided into 2 groups: a training group and a test group. The training group consisted of 1442 cases (70% of the entire dataset), and the prediction model was developed on the basis of the training group. The remaining 30% (618 cases) were assigned to the test group for model validation. The following 10 variables were used to develop the ANN and LR models: sex, age, alcoholic cirrhosis, nonalcoholic cirrhosis, alcoholic hepatitis, viral hepatitis, other types of chronic hepatitis, alcoholic fatty liver disease, other types of fatty liver disease, and
Wang, Edwin; Zaman, Naif; Mcgee, Shauna; Milanese, Jean-Sébastien; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; O'Connor, Maureen
2014-01-01
We discuss a cancer hallmark network framework for modelling genome-sequencing data to predict cancer clonal evolution and associated clinical phenotypes. Strategies of using this framework in conjunction with genome sequencing data in an attempt to predict personalized drug targets, drug resistance, and metastasis for a cancer patient, as well as cancer risks for a healthy individual are discussed. Accurate prediction of cancer clonal evolution and clinical phenotypes will have substantial i...
A Wavelet Analysis-Based Dynamic Prediction Algorithm to Network Traffic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meng Fan-Bo
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Network traffic is a significantly important parameter for network traffic engineering, while it holds highly dynamic nature in the network. Accordingly, it is difficult and impossible to directly predict traffic amount of end-to-end flows. This paper proposes a new prediction algorithm to network traffic using the wavelet analysis. Firstly, network traffic is converted into the time-frequency domain to capture time-frequency feature of network traffic. Secondly, in different frequency components, we model network traffic in the time-frequency domain. Finally, we build the prediction model about network traffic. At the same time, the corresponding prediction algorithm is presented to attain network traffic prediction. Simulation results indicates that our approach is promising.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Santosh Kumar Nanda
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Functional link-based neural network models were applied to predict opencast mining machineries noise. The paper analyzes the prediction capabilities of functional link neural network based noise prediction models vis-à-vis existing statistical models. In order to find the actual noise status in opencast mines, some of the popular noise prediction models, for example, ISO-9613-2, CONCAWE, VDI, and ENM, have been applied in mining and allied industries to predict the machineries noise by considering various attenuation factors. Functional link artificial neural network (FLANN, polynomial perceptron network (PPN, and Legendre neural network (LeNN were used to predict the machinery noise in opencast mines. The case study is based on data collected from an opencast coal mine of Orissa, India. From the present investigations, it could be concluded that the FLANN model give better noise prediction than the PPN and LeNN model.
Statistical Models for Social Networks
Snijders, Tom A. B.; Cook, KS; Massey, DS
2011-01-01
Statistical models for social networks as dependent variables must represent the typical network dependencies between tie variables such as reciprocity, homophily, transitivity, etc. This review first treats models for single (cross-sectionally observed) networks and then for network dynamics. For
Predicting Protein Function via Semantic Integration of Multiple Networks.
Yu, Guoxian; Fu, Guangyuan; Wang, Jun; Zhu, Hailong
2016-01-01
Determining the biological functions of proteins is one of the key challenges in the post-genomic era. The rapidly accumulated large volumes of proteomic and genomic data drives to develop computational models for automatically predicting protein function in large scale. Recent approaches focus on integrating multiple heterogeneous data sources and they often get better results than methods that use single data source alone. In this paper, we investigate how to integrate multiple biological data sources with the biological knowledge, i.e., Gene Ontology (GO), for protein function prediction. We propose a method, called SimNet, to Semantically integrate multiple functional association Networks derived from heterogenous data sources. SimNet firstly utilizes GO annotations of proteins to capture the semantic similarity between proteins and introduces a semantic kernel based on the similarity. Next, SimNet constructs a composite network, obtained as a weighted summation of individual networks, and aligns the network with the kernel to get the weights assigned to individual networks. Then, it applies a network-based classifier on the composite network to predict protein function. Experiment results on heterogenous proteomic data sources of Yeast, Human, Mouse, and Fly show that, SimNet not only achieves better (or comparable) results than other related competitive approaches, but also takes much less time. The Matlab codes of SimNet are available at https://sites.google.com/site/guoxian85/simnet.
Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network
Zhang, Suhan
2017-04-01
The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.
Prediction of SO{sub 2} levels using neural networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Belen M. Fernandez de Castro; Jose Manuel Prada Sanchez; Wenceslao Gonzalez Manteiga [and others] [University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago (Spain). Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Mathematics
2003-05-01
The paper presents an adaptation of the air pollution control help system in the neighbourhood of a coal-fired power plant in As Pontes (A Coruna, Spain), property of Endesa Generacion S.A., to the European Council Directive 1999/30/CE. This system contains a statistical prediction made half an hour before the measurement, and it helps the staff in the power plant prevent air quality level episodes. The prediction is made using neural network models. This prediction is compared with one made by a semiparametric model. 11 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.
Artificial neural networks for prediction of percentage of water ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
have high compressive strengths in comparison with con- crete specimens ... presenting suitable model based on artificial neural networks. (ANNs) to ... by experimental ones to evaluate the software power for pre- dicting the ..... Figure 7. Correlation of measured and predicted percentage of water absorption values of.
Wind Power Plant Prediction by Using Neural Networks: Preprint
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, Z.; Gao, W.; Wan, Y. H.; Muljadi, E.
2012-08-01
This paper introduces a method of short-term wind power prediction for a wind power plant by training neural networks based on historical data of wind speed and wind direction. The model proposed is shown to achieve a high accuracy with respect to the measured data.
Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction.
Watanabe, Eiji; Kitaoka, Akiyoshi; Sakamoto, Kiwako; Yasugi, Masaki; Tanaka, Kenta
2018-01-01
The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning) predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.
Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eiji Watanabe
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.
File access prediction using neural networks.
Patra, Prashanta Kumar; Sahu, Muktikanta; Mohapatra, Subasish; Samantray, Ronak Kumar
2010-06-01
One of the most vexing issues in design of a high-speed computer is the wide gap of access times between the memory and the disk. To solve this problem, static file access predictors have been used. In this paper, we propose dynamic file access predictors using neural networks to significantly improve upon the accuracy, success-per-reference, and effective-success-rate-per-reference by using neural-network-based file access predictor with proper tuning. In particular, we verified that the incorrect prediction has been reduced from 53.11% to 43.63% for the proposed neural network prediction method with a standard configuration than the recent popularity (RP) method. With manual tuning for each trace, we are able to improve upon the misprediction rate and effective-success-rate-per-reference using a standard configuration. Simulations on distributed file system (DFS) traces reveal that exact fit radial basis function (RBF) gives better prediction in high end system whereas multilayer perceptron (MLP) trained with Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) backpropagation outperforms in system having good computational capability. Probabilistic and competitive predictors are the most suitable for work stations having limited resources to deal with and the former predictor is more efficient than the latter for servers having maximum system calls. Finally, we conclude that MLP with LM backpropagation algorithm has better success rate of file prediction than those of simple perceptron, last successor, stable successor, and best k out of m predictors.
Jin, Xiaowei; Cheng, Peng; Chen, Wen-Li; Li, Hui
2018-04-01
A data-driven model is proposed for the prediction of the velocity field around a cylinder by fusion convolutional neural networks (CNNs) using measurements of the pressure field on the cylinder. The model is based on the close relationship between the Reynolds stresses in the wake, the wake formation length, and the base pressure. Numerical simulations of flow around a cylinder at various Reynolds numbers are carried out to establish a dataset capturing the effect of the Reynolds number on various flow properties. The time series of pressure fluctuations on the cylinder is converted into a grid-like spatial-temporal topology to be handled as the input of a CNN. A CNN architecture composed of a fusion of paths with and without a pooling layer is designed. This architecture can capture both accurate spatial-temporal information and the features that are invariant of small translations in the temporal dimension of pressure fluctuations on the cylinder. The CNN is trained using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) dataset to establish the mapping relationship between the pressure fluctuations on the cylinder and the velocity field around the cylinder. Adam (adaptive moment estimation), an efficient method for processing large-scale and high-dimensional machine learning problems, is employed to implement the optimization algorithm. The trained model is then tested over various Reynolds numbers. The predictions of this model are found to agree well with the CFD results, and the data-driven model successfully learns the underlying flow regimes, i.e., the relationship between wake structure and pressure experienced on the surface of a cylinder is well established.
Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Siek
2010-09-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.
Prediction of Parametric Roll Resonance by Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Míguez González, M; López Peña, F.; Díaz Casás, V.
2011-01-01
Parametric roll resonance is a ship stability related phenomenon that generates sudden large amplitude oscillations up to 30-40 degrees of roll. This can cause severe damage, and it can put the crew in serious danger. The need for a parametric rolling real time prediction system has been acknowle......Parametric roll resonance is a ship stability related phenomenon that generates sudden large amplitude oscillations up to 30-40 degrees of roll. This can cause severe damage, and it can put the crew in serious danger. The need for a parametric rolling real time prediction system has been...... acknowledged in the last few years. This work proposes a prediction system based on a multilayer perceptron (MP) neural network. The training and testing of the MP network is accomplished by feeding it with simulated data of a three degrees-of-freedom nonlinear model of a fishing vessel. The neural network...
Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling
2017-10-01
CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety
Bouzembrak, Y.; Marvin, H.J.P.
2016-01-01
Because food fraud can harm human health and erode consumer trust, it is imperative that it is detected at an early stage. Therefore the aim of this study was to predict the expected food fraud type for imported products for which the product category and country of origin are known in order to
Comparisons of Spatial Predictions of Conductivity on a Stream Network in an Appalachian Watershed
We made spatial predictions of specific conductance based on spatial stream network (SSN) modeling to compare conductivity measurements of components of the network, such as headwaters, tributaries, and mainstem, which have different spatial extents in a study Appalachian watersh...
Prediction of metal corrosion using feed-forward neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mahjani, M.G.; Jalili, S.; Jafarian, M.; Jaberi, A.
2004-01-01
The reliable prediction of corrosion behavior for the effective control of corrosion is a fundamental requirement. Since real world corrosion never seems to involve quite the same conditions that have previously been tested, using corrosion literature does not provide the necessary answers. In order to provide a methodology for predicting corrosion in real and complex situations, artificial neural networks can be utilized. Feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) is an information-processing paradigm inspired by the way the densely interconnected, parallel structure of the human brain process information.The aim of the present work is to predict corrosion behavior in critical conditions, such as industrial applications, based on some laboratory experimental data. Electrochemical behavior of stainless steel in different conditions were studied, using polarization technique and Tafel curves. Back-propagation neural networks models were developed to predict the corrosion behavior. The trained networks result in predicted value in good comparison to the experimental data. They have generally been claimed to be successful in modeling the corrosion behavior. The results are presented in two tables. Table 1 gives corrosion behavior of stainless-steel as a function of pH and CuSO 4 concentration and table 2 gives corrosion behavior of stainless - steel as a function of electrode surface area and CuSO 4 concentration. (authors)
Candidate Prediction Models and Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2005-01-01
This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....
Using neural networks for prediction of nuclear parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pereira Filho, Leonidas; Souto, Kelling Cabral, E-mail: leonidasmilenium@hotmail.com, E-mail: kcsouto@bol.com.br [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro (IFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Machado, Marcelo Dornellas, E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.br [Eletrobras Termonuclear S.A. (GCN.T/ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear
2013-07-01
Dating from 1943, the earliest work on artificial neural networks (ANN), when Warren Mc Cullock and Walter Pitts developed a study on the behavior of the biological neuron, with the goal of creating a mathematical model. Some other work was done until after the 80 witnessed an explosion of interest in ANNs, mainly due to advances in technology, especially microelectronics. Because ANNs are able to solve many problems such as approximation, classification, categorization, prediction and others, they have numerous applications in various areas, including nuclear. Nodal method is adopted as a tool for analyzing core parameters such as boron concentration and pin power peaks for pressurized water reactors. However, this method is extremely slow when it is necessary to perform various core evaluations, for example core reloading optimization. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper a model of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network type backpropagation will be trained to predict these values. The main objective of this work is the development of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network capable to predict, in very short time, with good accuracy, two important parameters used in the core reloading problem - Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor. For the training of the neural networks are provided loading patterns and nuclear data used in cycle 19 of Angra 1 nuclear power plant. Three models of networks are constructed using the same input data and providing the following outputs: 1- Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor, 2 - Boron Concentration and 3 - Power Peaking Factor. (author)
Using neural networks for prediction of nuclear parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pereira Filho, Leonidas; Souto, Kelling Cabral; Machado, Marcelo Dornellas
2013-01-01
Dating from 1943, the earliest work on artificial neural networks (ANN), when Warren Mc Cullock and Walter Pitts developed a study on the behavior of the biological neuron, with the goal of creating a mathematical model. Some other work was done until after the 80 witnessed an explosion of interest in ANNs, mainly due to advances in technology, especially microelectronics. Because ANNs are able to solve many problems such as approximation, classification, categorization, prediction and others, they have numerous applications in various areas, including nuclear. Nodal method is adopted as a tool for analyzing core parameters such as boron concentration and pin power peaks for pressurized water reactors. However, this method is extremely slow when it is necessary to perform various core evaluations, for example core reloading optimization. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper a model of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network type backpropagation will be trained to predict these values. The main objective of this work is the development of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network capable to predict, in very short time, with good accuracy, two important parameters used in the core reloading problem - Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor. For the training of the neural networks are provided loading patterns and nuclear data used in cycle 19 of Angra 1 nuclear power plant. Three models of networks are constructed using the same input data and providing the following outputs: 1- Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor, 2 - Boron Concentration and 3 - Power Peaking Factor. (author)
Cardiac abnormality prediction using HMLP network
Adnan, Ja'afar; Ahmad, K. A.; Mat, Muhamad Hadzren; Rizman, Zairi Ismael; Ahmad, Shahril
2018-02-01
Cardiac abnormality often occurs regardless of gender, age and races but depends on the lifestyle. This problem sometimes does not show any symptoms and usually detected once it already critical which lead to a sudden death to the patient. Basically, cardiac abnormality is the irregular electrical signal that generate by the pacemaker of the heart. This paper attempts to develop a program that can detect cardiac abnormality activity through implementation of Hybrid Multilayer Perceptron (HMLP) network. A certain amount of data of the heartbeat signals from the electrocardiogram (ECG) will be used in this project to train the MLP and HMLP network by using Modified Recursive Prediction Error (MRPE) algorithm and to test the network performance.
Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences
2016-11-29
Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO_{2} and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.
Lou, W; Nakai, S
2001-04-01
The data of Devilieghere et al. (Int. J. Food Microbiol. 1999, 46, 57--70) on bacterial growth in a simulated medium of modified-atmosphere-packed cooked meat products was processed for estimating maximum specific growth rate mu(max) and lag phase lambda of Lactobacillus sake using artificial neural networks-based model (ANNM) computation. The comparison between ANNM and response surface methodology (RSM) model showed that the accuracy of ANNM prediction was higher than that of RSM. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional plots of the response surfaces revealed that the relationships of water activity a(w), temperature T, and dissolved CO(2) concentration with mu(max) and lambda were complicated, not just linear or second-order relations. Furthermore, it was possible to compute the sensitivity of the model outputs against each input parameter by using ANNM. The results showed that mu(max) was most sensitive to a(w), T, and dissolved CO(2) in this order; whereas lambda was sensitive to T the most, followed by a(w), and dissolved CO(2) concentrations.
State-dependent intrinsic predictability of cortical network dynamics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leila Fakhraei
Full Text Available The information encoded in cortical circuit dynamics is fleeting, changing from moment to moment as new input arrives and ongoing intracortical interactions progress. A combination of deterministic and stochastic biophysical mechanisms governs how cortical dynamics at one moment evolve from cortical dynamics in recently preceding moments. Such temporal continuity of cortical dynamics is fundamental to many aspects of cortex function but is not well understood. Here we study temporal continuity by attempting to predict cortical population dynamics (multisite local field potential based on its own recent history in somatosensory cortex of anesthetized rats and in a computational network-level model. We found that the intrinsic predictability of cortical dynamics was dependent on multiple factors including cortical state, synaptic inhibition, and how far into the future the prediction extends. By pharmacologically tuning synaptic inhibition, we obtained a continuum of cortical states with asynchronous population activity at one extreme and stronger, spatially extended synchrony at the other extreme. Intermediate between these extremes we observed evidence for a special regime of population dynamics called criticality. Predictability of the near future (10-100 ms increased as the cortical state was tuned from asynchronous to synchronous. Predictability of the more distant future (>1 s was generally poor, but, surprisingly, was higher for asynchronous states compared to synchronous states. These experimental results were confirmed in a computational network model of spiking excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Our findings demonstrate that determinism and predictability of network dynamics depend on cortical state and the time-scale of the dynamics.
Coevolutionary modeling in network formation
Al-Shyoukh, Ibrahim
2014-12-03
Network coevolution, the process of network topology evolution in feedback with dynamical processes over the network nodes, is a common feature of many engineered and natural networks. In such settings, the change in network topology occurs at a comparable time scale to nodal dynamics. Coevolutionary modeling offers the possibility to better understand how and why network structures emerge. For example, social networks can exhibit a variety of structures, ranging from almost uniform to scale-free degree distributions. While current models of network formation can reproduce these structures, coevolutionary modeling can offer a better understanding of the underlying dynamics. This paper presents an overview of recent work on coevolutionary models of network formation, with an emphasis on the following three settings: (i) dynamic flow of benefits and costs, (ii) transient link establishment costs, and (iii) latent preferential attachment.
Coevolutionary modeling in network formation
Al-Shyoukh, Ibrahim; Chasparis, Georgios; Shamma, Jeff S.
2014-01-01
Network coevolution, the process of network topology evolution in feedback with dynamical processes over the network nodes, is a common feature of many engineered and natural networks. In such settings, the change in network topology occurs at a comparable time scale to nodal dynamics. Coevolutionary modeling offers the possibility to better understand how and why network structures emerge. For example, social networks can exhibit a variety of structures, ranging from almost uniform to scale-free degree distributions. While current models of network formation can reproduce these structures, coevolutionary modeling can offer a better understanding of the underlying dynamics. This paper presents an overview of recent work on coevolutionary models of network formation, with an emphasis on the following three settings: (i) dynamic flow of benefits and costs, (ii) transient link establishment costs, and (iii) latent preferential attachment.
Using Neural Networks to Predict the Hardness of Aluminum Alloys
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Zahran
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Aluminum alloys have gained significant industrial importance being involved in many of the light and heavy industries and especially in aerospace engineering. The mechanical properties of aluminum alloys are defined by a number of principal microstructural features. Conventional mathematical models of these properties are sometimes very complex to be analytically calculated. In this paper, a neural network model is used to predict the correlations between the hardness of aluminum alloys in relation to certain alloying elements. A backpropagation neural network is trained using a thorough dataset. The impact of certain elements is documented and an optimum structure is proposed.
A neural network to predict symptomatic lung injury
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Munley, M.T.; Lo, J.Y.
1999-01-01
A nonlinear neural network that simultaneously uses pre-radiotherapy (RT) biological and physical data was developed to predict symptomatic lung injury. The input data were pre-RT pulmonary function, three-dimensional treatment plan doses and demographics. The output was a single value between 0 (asymptomatic) and 1 (symptomatic) to predict the likelihood that a particular patient would become symptomatic. The network was trained on data from 97 patients for 400 iterations with the goal to minimize the mean-squared error. Statistical analysis was performed on the resulting network to determine the model's accuracy. Results from the neural network were compared with those given by traditional linear discriminate analysis and the dose-volume histogram reduction (DVHR) scheme of Kutcher. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed on the resulting network which had Az=0.833±0.04. (Az is the area under the ROC curve.) Linear discriminate multivariate analysis yielded an Az=0.813±0.06. The DVHR method had Az=0.521±0.08. The network was also used to rank the significance of the input variables. Future studies will be conducted to improve network accuracy and to include functional imaging data. (author)
Energy prediction using spatiotemporal pattern networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jiang, Zhanhong; Liu, Chao; Akintayo, Adedotun; Henze, Gregor P.; Sarkar, Soumik
2017-11-01
This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamical filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependencies among different sub-systems. To quantify causal dependencies, a mutual information based metric is presented and an energy prediction approach is subsequently proposed based on the STPN framework. To validate the proposed scheme, two case studies are presented, one involving wind turbine power prediction (supply side energy) using the Western Wind Integration data set generated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for identifying spatiotemporal characteristics, and the other, residential electric energy disaggregation (demand side energy) using the Building America 2010 data set from NREL for exploring temporal features. In the energy disaggregation context, convex programming techniques beyond the STPN framework are developed and applied to achieve improved disaggregation performance.
Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.
Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito
2014-01-01
Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.
Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shangkun Deng
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL and genetic algorithm (GA. MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.
Modeling online social signed networks
Li, Le; Gu, Ke; Zeng, An; Fan, Ying; Di, Zengru
2018-04-01
People's online rating behavior can be modeled by user-object bipartite networks directly. However, few works have been devoted to reveal the hidden relations between users, especially from the perspective of signed networks. We analyze the signed monopartite networks projected by the signed user-object bipartite networks, finding that the networks are highly clustered with obvious community structure. Interestingly, the positive clustering coefficient is remarkably higher than the negative clustering coefficient. Then, a Signed Growing Network model (SGN) based on local preferential attachment is proposed to generate a user's signed network that has community structure and high positive clustering coefficient. Other structural properties of the modeled networks are also found to be similar to the empirical networks.
QSAR modelling using combined simple competitive learning networks and RBF neural networks.
Sheikhpour, R; Sarram, M A; Rezaeian, M; Sheikhpour, E
2018-04-01
The aim of this study was to propose a QSAR modelling approach based on the combination of simple competitive learning (SCL) networks with radial basis function (RBF) neural networks for predicting the biological activity of chemical compounds. The proposed QSAR method consisted of two phases. In the first phase, an SCL network was applied to determine the centres of an RBF neural network. In the second phase, the RBF neural network was used to predict the biological activity of various phenols and Rho kinase (ROCK) inhibitors. The predictive ability of the proposed QSAR models was evaluated and compared with other QSAR models using external validation. The results of this study showed that the proposed QSAR modelling approach leads to better performances than other models in predicting the biological activity of chemical compounds. This indicated the efficiency of simple competitive learning networks in determining the centres of RBF neural networks.
Predicting Software Suitability Using a Bayesian Belief Network
Beaver, Justin M.; Schiavone, Guy A.; Berrios, Joseph S.
2005-01-01
The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian Network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.
Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole
1999-01-01
This paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems, including open-loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed to be extended for the control...... of non-linear systems. GPC is model based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model, a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis...... on an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....
A neighbourhood evolving network model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cao, Y.J.; Wang, G.Z.; Jiang, Q.Y.; Han, Z.X.
2006-01-01
Many social, technological, biological and economical systems are best described by evolved network models. In this short Letter, we propose and study a new evolving network model. The model is based on the new concept of neighbourhood connectivity, which exists in many physical complex networks. The statistical properties and dynamics of the proposed model is analytically studied and compared with those of Barabasi-Albert scale-free model. Numerical simulations indicate that this network model yields a transition between power-law and exponential scaling, while the Barabasi-Albert scale-free model is only one of its special (limiting) cases. Particularly, this model can be used to enhance the evolving mechanism of complex networks in the real world, such as some social networks development
A Neural Network based Approach for Predicting Customer Churn in Cellular Network Services
Sharma, Anuj; Panigrahi, Dr. Prabin Kumar
2013-01-01
Marketing literature states that it is more costly to engage a new customer than to retain an existing loyal customer. Churn prediction models are developed by academics and practitioners to effectively manage and control customer churn in order to retain existing customers. As churn management is an important activity for companies to retain loyal customers, the ability to correctly predict customer churn is necessary. As the cellular network services market becoming more competitive, custom...
Cui, Zhiyong; Ke, Ruimin; Wang, Yinhai
2018-01-01
Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of deep learning methods in traffic forecasting has not yet fully been exploited in terms of the depth of the model architecture, the spatial scale of the prediction area, and the predictive power of spatial-temporal data. In this paper, a deep stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM (SBU- LSTM) neura...
Prediction of Bladder Cancer Recurrences Using Artificial Neural Networks
Zulueta Guerrero, Ekaitz; Garay, Naiara Telleria; Lopez-Guede, Jose Manuel; Vilches, Borja Ayerdi; Iragorri, Eider Egilegor; Castaños, David Lecumberri; de La Hoz Rastrollo, Ana Belén; Peña, Carlos Pertusa
Even if considerable advances have been made in the field of early diagnosis, there is no simple, cheap and non-invasive method that can be applied to the clinical monitorisation of bladder cancer patients. Moreover, bladder cancer recurrences or the reappearance of the tumour after its surgical resection cannot be predicted in the current clinical setting. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to assess how different combinations of classical clinical parameters (stage-grade and age) and two urinary markers (growth factor and pro-inflammatory mediator) could predict post surgical recurrences in bladder cancer patients. Different ANN methods, input parameter combinations and recurrence related output variables were used and the resulting positive and negative prediction rates compared. MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) was selected as the most predictive model and urinary markers showed the highest sensitivity, predicting correctly 50% of the patients that would recur in a 2 year follow-up period.
A range-based predictive localization algorithm for WSID networks
Liu, Yuan; Chen, Junjie; Li, Gang
2017-11-01
Most studies on localization algorithms are conducted on the sensor networks with densely distributed nodes. However, the non-localizable problems are prone to occur in the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. To solve this problem, a range-based predictive localization algorithm (RPLA) is proposed in this paper for the wireless sensor networks syncretizing the RFID (WSID) networks. The Gaussian mixture model is established to predict the trajectory of a mobile target. Then, the received signal strength indication is used to reduce the residence area of the target location based on the approximate point-in-triangulation test algorithm. In addition, collaborative localization schemes are introduced to locate the target in the non-localizable situations. Simulation results verify that the RPLA achieves accurate localization for the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. The localization accuracy of the RPLA is 48.7% higher than that of the APIT algorithm, 16.8% higher than that of the single Gaussian model-based algorithm and 10.5% higher than that of the Kalman filtering-based algorithm.
Predicting company growth using logistic regression and neural networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marijana Zekić-Sušac
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The paper aims to establish an efficient model for predicting company growth by leveraging the strengths of logistic regression and neural networks. A real dataset of Croatian companies was used which described the relevant industry sector, financial ratios, income, and assets in the input space, with a dependent binomial variable indicating whether a company had high-growth if it had annualized growth in assets by more than 20% a year over a three-year period. Due to a large number of input variables, factor analysis was performed in the pre -processing stage in order to extract the most important input components. Building an efficient model with a high classification rate and explanatory ability required application of two data mining methods: logistic regression as a parametric and neural networks as a non -parametric method. The methods were tested on the models with and without variable reduction. The classification accuracy of the models was compared using statistical tests and ROC curves. The results showed that neural networks produce a significantly higher classification accuracy in the model when incorporating all available variables. The paper further discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches, i.e. logistic regression and neural networks in modelling company growth. The suggested model is potentially of benefit to investors and economic policy makers as it provides support for recognizing companies with growth potential, especially during times of economic downturn.
AIR POLLUITON INDEX PREDICTION USING MULTIPLE NEURAL NETWORKS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zainal Ahmad
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Air quality monitoring and forecasting tools are necessary for the purpose of taking precautionary measures against air pollution, such as reducing the effect of a predicted air pollution peak on the surrounding population and ecosystem. In this study a single Feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (FANN is shown to be able to predict the Air Pollution Index (API with a Mean Squared Error (MSE and coefficient determination, R2, of 0.1856 and 0.7950 respectively. However, due to the non-robust nature of single FANN, a selective combination of Multiple Neural Networks (MNN is introduced using backward elimination and a forward selection method. The results show that both selective combination methods can improve the robustness and performance of the API prediction with the MSE and R2 of 0.1614 and 0.8210 respectively. This clearly shows that it is possible to reduce the number of networks combined in MNN for API prediction, without losses of any information in terms of the performance of the final API prediction model.
Artificial neural network based particle size prediction of polymeric nanoparticles.
Youshia, John; Ali, Mohamed Ehab; Lamprecht, Alf
2017-10-01
Particle size of nanoparticles and the respective polydispersity are key factors influencing their biopharmaceutical behavior in a large variety of therapeutic applications. Predicting these attributes would skip many preliminary studies usually required to optimize formulations. The aim was to build a mathematical model capable of predicting the particle size of polymeric nanoparticles produced by a pharmaceutical polymer of choice. Polymer properties controlling the particle size were identified as molecular weight, hydrophobicity and surface activity, and were quantified by measuring polymer viscosity, contact angle and interfacial tension, respectively. A model was built using artificial neural network including these properties as input with particle size and polydispersity index as output. The established model successfully predicted particle size of nanoparticles covering a range of 70-400nm prepared from other polymers. The percentage bias for particle prediction was 2%, 4% and 6%, for the training, validation and testing data, respectively. Polymer surface activity was found to have the highest impact on the particle size followed by viscosity and finally hydrophobicity. Results of this study successfully highlighted polymer properties affecting particle size and confirmed the usefulness of artificial neural networks in predicting the particle size and polydispersity of polymeric nanoparticles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Method Based on Neural Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhong Xiao
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The dissolved oxygen (DO is oxygen dissolved in water, which is an important factor for the aquaculture. Using BP neural network method with the combination of purelin, logsig, and tansig activation functions is proposed for the prediction of aquaculture’s dissolved oxygen. The input layer, hidden layer, and output layer are introduced in detail including the weight adjustment process. The breeding data of three ponds in actual 10 consecutive days were used for experiments; these ponds were located in Beihai, Guangxi, a traditional aquaculture base in southern China. The data of the first 7 days are used for training, and the data of the latter 3 days are used for the test. Compared with the common prediction models, curve fitting (CF, autoregression (AR, grey model (GM, and support vector machines (SVM, the experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the neural network is the highest, and all the predicted values are less than 5% of the error limit, which can meet the needs of practical applications, followed by AR, GM, SVM, and CF. The prediction model can help to improve the water quality monitoring level of aquaculture which will prevent the deterioration of water quality and the outbreak of disease.
Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction
Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei
2018-01-01
This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.
Synapse:neural network for predict power consumption: users guide
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Muller, C; Mangeas, M; Perrot, N
1994-08-01
SYNAPSE is forecasting tool designed to predict power consumption in metropolitan France on the half hour time scale. Some characteristics distinguish this forecasting model from those which already exist. In particular, it is composed of numerous neural networks. The idea for using many neural networks arises from past tests. These tests showed us that a single neural network is not able to solve the problem correctly. From this result, we decided to perform unsupervised classification of the 24 consumption curves. From this classification, six classes appeared, linked with the weekdays: Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays, holidays and bridge days. For each class and for each half hour, two multilayer perceptrons are built. The two of them forecast the power for one particular half hour, and for a day including one of the determined class. The input of these two network are different: the first one (short time forecasting) includes the powers for the most recent half hour and relative power of the previous day; the second (medium time forecasting) includes only the relative power of the previous day. A process connects the results of every networks and allows one to forecast more than one half-hour in advance. In this process, short time forecasting networks and medium time forecasting networks are used differently. The first kind of neural networks gives good results on the scale of one day. The second one gives good forecasts for the next predicted powers. In this note, the organization of the SYNAPSE program is detailed, and the user`s menu is described. This first version of synapse works and should allow the APC group to evaluate its utility. (authors). 6 refs., 2 appends.
Human Splice-Site Prediction with Deep Neural Networks.
Naito, Tatsuhiko
2018-04-18
Accurate splice-site prediction is essential to delineate gene structures from sequence data. Several computational techniques have been applied to create a system to predict canonical splice sites. For classification tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved record-breaking results and often outperformed other supervised learning techniques. In this study, a new method of splice-site prediction using DNNs was proposed. The proposed system receives an input sequence data and returns an answer as to whether it is splice site. The length of input is 140 nucleotides, with the consensus sequence (i.e., "GT" and "AG" for the donor and acceptor sites, respectively) in the middle. Each input sequence model is applied to the pretrained DNN model that determines the probability that an input is a splice site. The model consists of convolutional layers and bidirectional long short-term memory network layers. The pretraining and validation were conducted using the data set tested in previously reported methods. The performance evaluation results showed that the proposed method can outperform the previous methods. In addition, the pattern learned by the DNNs was visualized as position frequency matrices (PFMs). Some of PFMs were very similar to the consensus sequence. The trained DNN model and the brief source code for the prediction system are uploaded. Further improvement will be achieved following the further development of DNNs.
BrainNetCNN: Convolutional neural networks for brain networks; towards predicting neurodevelopment.
Kawahara, Jeremy; Brown, Colin J; Miller, Steven P; Booth, Brian G; Chau, Vann; Grunau, Ruth E; Zwicker, Jill G; Hamarneh, Ghassan
2017-02-01
We propose BrainNetCNN, a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework to predict clinical neurodevelopmental outcomes from brain networks. In contrast to the spatially local convolutions done in traditional image-based CNNs, our BrainNetCNN is composed of novel edge-to-edge, edge-to-node and node-to-graph convolutional filters that leverage the topological locality of structural brain networks. We apply the BrainNetCNN framework to predict cognitive and motor developmental outcome scores from structural brain networks of infants born preterm. Diffusion tensor images (DTI) of preterm infants, acquired between 27 and 46 weeks gestational age, were used to construct a dataset of structural brain connectivity networks. We first demonstrate the predictive capabilities of BrainNetCNN on synthetic phantom networks with simulated injury patterns and added noise. BrainNetCNN outperforms a fully connected neural-network with the same number of model parameters on both phantoms with focal and diffuse injury patterns. We then apply our method to the task of joint prediction of Bayley-III cognitive and motor scores, assessed at 18 months of age, adjusted for prematurity. We show that our BrainNetCNN framework outperforms a variety of other methods on the same data. Furthermore, BrainNetCNN is able to identify an infant's postmenstrual age to within about 2 weeks. Finally, we explore the high-level features learned by BrainNetCNN by visualizing the importance of each connection in the brain with respect to predicting the outcome scores. These findings are then discussed in the context of the anatomy and function of the developing preterm infant brain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Predicting concrete corrosion of sewers using artificial neural network.
Jiang, Guangming; Keller, Jurg; Bond, Philip L; Yuan, Zhiguo
2016-04-01
Corrosion is often a major failure mechanism for concrete sewers and under such circumstances the sewer service life is largely determined by the progression of microbially induced concrete corrosion. The modelling of sewer processes has become possible due to the improved understanding of in-sewer transformation. Recent systematic studies about the correlation between the corrosion processes and sewer environment factors should be utilized to improve the prediction capability of service life by sewer models. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based approach for modelling the concrete corrosion processes in sewers. The approach included predicting the time for the corrosion to initiate and then predicting the corrosion rate after the initiation period. The ANN model was trained and validated with long-term (4.5 years) corrosion data obtained in laboratory corrosion chambers, and further verified with field measurements in real sewers across Australia. The trained model estimated the corrosion initiation time and corrosion rates very close to those measured in Australian sewers. The ANN model performed better than a multiple regression model also developed on the same dataset. Additionally, the ANN model can serve as a prediction framework for sewer service life, which can be progressively improved and expanded by including corrosion rates measured in different sewer conditions. Furthermore, the proposed methodology holds promise to facilitate the construction of analytical models associated with corrosion processes of concrete sewers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Confidence scores for prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA
2011-01-01
In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...
Prediction based chaos control via a new neural network
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shen Liqun; Wang Mao; Liu Wanyu; Sun Guanghui
2008-01-01
In this Letter, a new chaos control scheme based on chaos prediction is proposed. To perform chaos prediction, a new neural network architecture for complex nonlinear approximation is proposed. And the difficulty in building and training the neural network is also reduced. Simulation results of Logistic map and Lorenz system show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos control scheme and the proposed neural network
Composite Social Network for Predicting Mobile Apps Installation
2011-06-02
Social network tools (such as the Facebook app and the Twitter app) can observe users’ online friendship network . In this work, our key idea is...the friendship network from phones by collecting data from social networking apps such as the Facebook and Twitter apps. We summarize all the networks ...ar X iv :1 10 6. 03 59 v1 [ cs .S I] 2 J un 2 01 1 Composite Social Network for Predicting Mobile Apps Installation Wei Pan
Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stephen M Pawson
Full Text Available Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight activity of three exotic insects, Hylurgus ligniperda, Hylastes ater, and Arhopalus ferus in a managed plantation forest context. Models were built from 7,144 individual hours of insect sampling, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, photon flux density, and temporal data. Discretized meteorological and temporal variables were used to build naïve Bayes tree augmented networks. Calibration results suggested that the H. ater and A. ferus Bayesian network models had the best fit for low Type I and overall errors, and H. ligniperda had the best fit for low Type II errors. Maximum hourly temperature and time since sunrise had the largest influence on H. ligniperda flight activity predictions, whereas time of day and year had the greatest influence on H. ater and A. ferus activity. Type II model errors for the prediction of no flight activity is improved by increasing the model's predictive threshold. Improvements in model performance can be made by further sampling, increasing the sensitivity of the flight intercept traps, and replicating sampling in other regions. Predicting insect flight informs an assessment of the potential phytosanitary risks of wood exports. Quantifying this risk allows mitigation treatments to be targeted to prevent the spread of invasive species via international trade pathways.
Predicting Developmental Disorder in Infants Using an Artificial Neural Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Farin Soleimani
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Early recognition of developmental disorders is an important goal, and equally important is avoiding misdiagnosing a disorder in a healthy child without pathology. The aim of the present study was to develop an artificial neural network using perinatal information to predict developmental disorder at infancy. A total of 1,232 mother–child dyads were recruited from 6,150 in the original data of Karaj, Alborz Province, Iran. Thousands of variables are examined in this data including basic characteristics, medical history, and variables related to infants. The validated Infant Neurological International Battery test was employed to assess the infant’s development. The concordance indexes showed that true prediction of developmental disorder in the artificial neural network model, compared to the logistic regression model, was 83.1% vs. 79.5% and the area under ROC curves, calculated from testing data, were 0.79 and 0.68, respectively. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the ANN model vs. LR model was calculated 93.2% vs. 92.7% and 39.1% vs. 21.7%. An artificial neural network performed significantly better than a logistic regression model.
Forex Market Prediction Using NARX Neural Network with Bagging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shahbazi Nima
2016-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a new methodfor predicting movements in Forex market based on NARX neural network withtime shifting bagging techniqueand financial indicators, such as relative strength index and stochastic indicators. Neural networks have prominent learning ability but they often exhibit bad and unpredictable performance for noisy data. When compared with the static neural networks, our method significantly reducesthe error rate of the responseandimproves the performance of the prediction. We tested three different types ofarchitecture for predicting the response and determined the best network approach. We applied our method to prediction the hourly foreign exchange rates and found remarkable predictability in comprehensive experiments with 2 different foreign exchange rates (GBPUSD and EURUSD.
Neill, Aaron James; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Strachan, Norval James Colin; Hough, Rupert Lloyd; Avery, Lisa Marie; Watson, Helen; Soulsby, Chris
2018-01-15
An 11year dataset of concentrations of E. coli at 10 spatially-distributed sites in a mixed land-use catchment in NE Scotland (52km 2 ) revealed that concentrations were not clearly associated with flow or season. The lack of a clear flow-concentration relationship may have been due to greater water fluxes from less-contaminated headwaters during high flows diluting downstream concentrations, the importance of persistent point sources of E. coli both anthropogenic and agricultural, and possibly the temporal resolution of the dataset. Point sources and year-round grazing of livestock probably obscured clear seasonality in concentrations. Multiple linear regression models identified potential for contamination by anthropogenic point sources as a significant predictor of long-term spatial patterns of low, average and high concentrations of E. coli. Neither arable nor pasture land was significant, even when accounting for hydrological connectivity with a topographic-index method. However, this may have reflected coarse-scale land-cover data inadequately representing "point sources" of agricultural contamination (e.g. direct defecation of livestock into the stream) and temporal changes in availability of E. coli from diffuse sources. Spatial-stream-network models (SSNMs) were applied in a novel context, and had value in making more robust catchment-scale predictions of concentrations of E. coli with estimates of uncertainty, and in enabling identification of potential "hot spots" of faecal contamination. Successfully managing faecal contamination of surface waters is vital for safeguarding public health. Our finding that concentrations of E. coli could not clearly be associated with flow or season may suggest that management strategies should not necessarily target only high flow events or summer when faecal contamination risk is often assumed to be greatest. Furthermore, we identified SSNMs as valuable tools for identifying possible "hot spots" of contamination which
Predicting language diversity with complex networks
Gubiec, Tomasz
2018-01-01
We analyze the model of social interactions with coevolution of the topology and states of the nodes. This model can be interpreted as a model of language change. We propose different rewiring mechanisms and perform numerical simulations for each. Obtained results are compared with the empirical data gathered from two online databases and anthropological study of Solomon Islands. We study the behavior of the number of languages for different system sizes and we find that only local rewiring, i.e. triadic closure, is capable of reproducing results for the empirical data in a qualitative manner. Furthermore, we cancel the contradiction between previous models and the Solomon Islands case. Our results demonstrate the importance of the topology of the network, and the rewiring mechanism in the process of language change. PMID:29702699
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tsang-Pai Liu
2012-03-01
Conclusion: In summary, the greater predictive accuracy and precision made the application of BIA with the BP–ANN mathematical model more feasible for the clinical measurement of FM and FFM in the lower limbs of elderly people.
A Predictive Approach to Network Reverse-Engineering
Wiggins, Chris
2005-03-01
A central challenge of systems biology is the ``reverse engineering" of transcriptional networks: inferring which genes exert regulatory control over which other genes. Attempting such inference at the genomic scale has only recently become feasible, via data-intensive biological innovations such as DNA microrrays (``DNA chips") and the sequencing of whole genomes. In this talk we present a predictive approach to network reverse-engineering, in which we integrate DNA chip data and sequence data to build a model of the transcriptional network of the yeast S. cerevisiae capable of predicting the response of genes in unseen experiments. The technique can also be used to extract ``motifs,'' sequence elements which act as binding sites for regulatory proteins. We validate by a number of approaches and present comparison of theoretical prediction vs. experimental data, along with biological interpretations of the resulting model. En route, we will illustrate some basic notions in statistical learning theory (fitting vs. over-fitting; cross- validation; assessing statistical significance), highlighting ways in which physicists can make a unique contribution in data- driven approaches to reverse engineering.
Community detection, link prediction, and layer interdependence in multilayer networks
De Bacco, Caterina; Power, Eleanor A.; Larremore, Daniel B.; Moore, Cristopher
2017-04-01
Complex systems are often characterized by distinct types of interactions between the same entities. These can be described as a multilayer network where each layer represents one type of interaction. These layers may be interdependent in complicated ways, revealing different kinds of structure in the network. In this work we present a generative model, and an efficient expectation-maximization algorithm, which allows us to perform inference tasks such as community detection and link prediction in this setting. Our model assumes overlapping communities that are common between the layers, while allowing these communities to affect each layer in a different way, including arbitrary mixtures of assortative, disassortative, or directed structure. It also gives us a mathematically principled way to define the interdependence between layers, by measuring how much information about one layer helps us predict links in another layer. In particular, this allows us to bundle layers together to compress redundant information and identify small groups of layers which suffice to predict the remaining layers accurately. We illustrate these findings by analyzing synthetic data and two real multilayer networks, one representing social support relationships among villagers in South India and the other representing shared genetic substring material between genes of the malaria parasite.
Predictive coding of dynamical variables in balanced spiking networks.
Boerlin, Martin; Machens, Christian K; Denève, Sophie
2013-01-01
Two observations about the cortex have puzzled neuroscientists for a long time. First, neural responses are highly variable. Second, the level of excitation and inhibition received by each neuron is tightly balanced at all times. Here, we demonstrate that both properties are necessary consequences of neural networks that represent information efficiently in their spikes. We illustrate this insight with spiking networks that represent dynamical variables. Our approach is based on two assumptions: We assume that information about dynamical variables can be read out linearly from neural spike trains, and we assume that neurons only fire a spike if that improves the representation of the dynamical variables. Based on these assumptions, we derive a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that is able to implement arbitrary linear dynamical systems. We show that the membrane voltage of the neurons is equivalent to a prediction error about a common population-level signal. Among other things, our approach allows us to construct an integrator network of spiking neurons that is robust against many perturbations. Most importantly, neural variability in our networks cannot be equated to noise. Despite exhibiting the same single unit properties as widely used population code models (e.g. tuning curves, Poisson distributed spike trains), balanced networks are orders of magnitudes more reliable. Our approach suggests that spikes do matter when considering how the brain computes, and that the reliability of cortical representations could have been strongly underestimated.
Developing Personal Network Business Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Saugstrup, Dan; Henten, Anders
2006-01-01
The aim of the paper is to examine the issue of business modeling in relation to personal networks, PNs. The paper builds on research performed on business models in the EU 1ST MAGNET1 project (My personal Adaptive Global NET). The paper presents the Personal Network concept and briefly reports...
Thermal conductivity model for nanofiber networks
Zhao, Xinpeng; Huang, Congliang; Liu, Qingkun; Smalyukh, Ivan I.; Yang, Ronggui
2018-02-01
Understanding thermal transport in nanofiber networks is essential for their applications in thermal management, which are used extensively as mechanically sturdy thermal insulation or high thermal conductivity materials. In this study, using the statistical theory and Fourier's law of heat conduction while accounting for both the inter-fiber contact thermal resistance and the intrinsic thermal resistance of nanofibers, an analytical model is developed to predict the thermal conductivity of nanofiber networks as a function of their geometric and thermal properties. A scaling relation between the thermal conductivity and the geometric properties including volume fraction and nanofiber length of the network is revealed. This model agrees well with both numerical simulations and experimental measurements found in the literature. This model may prove useful in analyzing the experimental results and designing nanofiber networks for both high and low thermal conductivity applications.
Thermal conductivity model for nanofiber networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhao, Xinpeng [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA; Huang, Congliang [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA; School of Electrical and Power Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China; Liu, Qingkun [Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA; Smalyukh, Ivan I. [Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA; Materials Science and Engineering Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA; Yang, Ronggui [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA; Materials Science and Engineering Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA; Buildings and Thermal Systems Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, USA
2018-02-28
Understanding thermal transport in nanofiber networks is essential for their applications in thermal management, which are used extensively as mechanically sturdy thermal insulation or high thermal conductivity materials. In this study, using the statistical theory and Fourier's law of heat conduction while accounting for both the inter-fiber contact thermal resistance and the intrinsic thermal resistance of nanofibers, an analytical model is developed to predict the thermal conductivity of nanofiber networks as a function of their geometric and thermal properties. A scaling relation between the thermal conductivity and the geometric properties including volume fraction and nanofiber length of the network is revealed. This model agrees well with both numerical simulations and experimental measurements found in the literature. This model may prove useful in analyzing the experimental results and designing nanofiber networks for both high and low thermal conductivity applications.
Mathematical Modelling Plant Signalling Networks
Muraro, D.; Byrne, H.M.; King, J.R.; Bennett, M.J.
2013-01-01
methods for modelling gene and signalling networks and their application in plants. We then describe specific models of hormonal perception and cross-talk in plants. This mathematical analysis of sub-cellular molecular mechanisms paves the way for more
Convolutional neural network architectures for predicting DNA–protein binding
Zeng, Haoyang; Edwards, Matthew D.; Liu, Ge; Gifford, David K.
2016-01-01
Motivation: Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have outperformed conventional methods in modeling the sequence specificity of DNA–protein binding. Yet inappropriate CNN architectures can yield poorer performance than simpler models. Thus an in-depth understanding of how to match CNN architecture to a given task is needed to fully harness the power of CNNs for computational biology applications. Results: We present a systematic exploration of CNN architectures for predicting DNA sequence binding using a large compendium of transcription factor datasets. We identify the best-performing architectures by varying CNN width, depth and pooling designs. We find that adding convolutional kernels to a network is important for motif-based tasks. We show the benefits of CNNs in learning rich higher-order sequence features, such as secondary motifs and local sequence context, by comparing network performance on multiple modeling tasks ranging in difficulty. We also demonstrate how careful construction of sequence benchmark datasets, using approaches that control potentially confounding effects like positional or motif strength bias, is critical in making fair comparisons between competing methods. We explore how to establish the sufficiency of training data for these learning tasks, and we have created a flexible cloud-based framework that permits the rapid exploration of alternative neural network architectures for problems in computational biology. Availability and Implementation: All the models analyzed are available at http://cnn.csail.mit.edu. Contact: gifford@mit.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27307608
Complex Networks in Psychological Models
Wedemann, R. S.; Carvalho, L. S. A. V. D.; Donangelo, R.
We develop schematic, self-organizing, neural-network models to describe mechanisms associated with mental processes, by a neurocomputational substrate. These models are examples of real world complex networks with interesting general topological structures. Considering dopaminergic signal-to-noise neuronal modulation in the central nervous system, we propose neural network models to explain development of cortical map structure and dynamics of memory access, and unify different mental processes into a single neurocomputational substrate. Based on our neural network models, neurotic behavior may be understood as an associative memory process in the brain, and the linguistic, symbolic associative process involved in psychoanalytic working-through can be mapped onto a corresponding process of reconfiguration of the neural network. The models are illustrated through computer simulations, where we varied dopaminergic modulation and observed the self-organizing emergent patterns at the resulting semantic map, interpreting them as different manifestations of mental functioning, from psychotic through to normal and neurotic behavior, and creativity.
PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
HOD
their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weibo Zhao
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Power generation industry is the key industry of carbon dioxide (CO2 emission in China. Assessing its future CO2 emissions is of great significance to the formulation and implementation of energy saving and emission reduction policies. Based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology model (STIRPAT, the influencing factors analysis model of CO2 emission of power generation industry is established. The ridge regression (RR method is used to estimate the historical data. In addition, a wavelet neural network (WNN prediction model based on Cuckoo Search algorithm optimized by Gauss (GCS is put forward to predict the factors in the STIRPAT model. Then, the predicted values are substituted into the regression model, and the CO2 emission estimation values of the power generation industry in China are obtained. It’s concluded that population, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP, standard coal consumption and thermal power specific gravity are the key factors affecting the CO2 emission from the power generation industry. Besides, the GCS-WNN prediction model has higher prediction accuracy, comparing with other models. Moreover, with the development of science and technology in the future, the CO2 emission growth in the power generation industry will gradually slow down according to the prediction results.
Predicting product life cycle using fuzzy neural network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ali Mohammadi
2014-09-01
Full Text Available One of the most important tasks of science in different fields is to find the relationships among various phenomena in order to predict future. Production and service organizations are not exceptions and they should predict future to survive. Predicting the life cycle of the organization's products is one of the most important prediction cases in an organization. Predicting the product life cycle provides an opportunity to identify the product position and help to get a better insight about competitors. This paper deals with the predictability of the product life cycle with Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS. The Population of this study was Pegah Fars products and the sample was this company's cheese products. In this regard, this paper attempts to model and predict the product life cycle of cheese products in Pegah Fars Company. In this due, a designed questionnaire was distributed among some experts, distributors and retailers and seven independent variables were selected. In this survey, ANFIS sales forecasting technique was employed and MATLAB software was used for data analysis. The results confirmed ANFIS as a good method to predict the product life cycle.
An Application to the Prediction of LOD Change Based on General Regression Neural Network
Zhang, X. H.; Wang, Q. J.; Zhu, J. J.; Zhang, H.
2011-07-01
Traditional prediction of the LOD (length of day) change was based on linear models, such as the least square model and the autoregressive technique, etc. Due to the complex non-linear features of the LOD variation, the performances of the linear model predictors are not fully satisfactory. This paper applies a non-linear neural network - general regression neural network (GRNN) model to forecast the LOD change, and the results are analyzed and compared with those obtained with the back propagation neural network and other models. The comparison shows that the performance of the GRNN model in the prediction of the LOD change is efficient and feasible.
Predicting cryptic links in host-parasite networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tad Dallas
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Networks are a way to represent interactions among one (e.g., social networks or more (e.g., plant-pollinator networks classes of nodes. The ability to predict likely, but unobserved, interactions has generated a great deal of interest, and is sometimes referred to as the link prediction problem. However, most studies of link prediction have focused on social networks, and have assumed a completely censused network. In biological networks, it is unlikely that all interactions are censused, and ignoring incomplete detection of interactions may lead to biased or incorrect conclusions. Previous attempts to predict network interactions have relied on known properties of network structure, making the approach sensitive to observation errors. This is an obvious shortcoming, as networks are dynamic, and sometimes not well sampled, leading to incomplete detection of links. Here, we develop an algorithm to predict missing links based on conditional probability estimation and associated, node-level features. We validate this algorithm on simulated data, and then apply it to a desert small mammal host-parasite network. Our approach achieves high accuracy on simulated and observed data, providing a simple method to accurately predict missing links in networks without relying on prior knowledge about network structure.
Research on Improved Depth Belief Network-Based Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peng Lu
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Quantitative analysis and prediction can help to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Quantitative prediction based on traditional model has low accuracy. The variance of model prediction based on shallow neural network is larger. In this paper, cardiovascular disease prediction model based on improved deep belief network (DBN is proposed. Using the reconstruction error, the network depth is determined independently, and unsupervised training and supervised optimization are combined. It ensures the accuracy of model prediction while guaranteeing stability. Thirty experiments were performed independently on the Statlog (Heart and Heart Disease Database data sets in the UCI database. Experimental results showed that the mean of prediction accuracy was 91.26% and 89.78%, respectively. The variance of prediction accuracy was 5.78 and 4.46, respectively.
Prediction of the residual strength of clay using functional networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S.Z. Khan
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Landslides are common natural hazards occurring in most parts of the world and have considerable adverse economic effects. Residual shear strength of clay is one of the most important factors in the determination of stability of slopes or landslides. This effect is more pronounced in sensitive clays which show large changes in shear strength from peak to residual states. This study analyses the prediction of the residual strength of clay based on a new prediction model, functional networks (FN using data available in the literature. The performance of FN was compared with support vector machine (SVM and artificial neural network (ANN based on statistical parameters like correlation coefficient (R, Nash--Sutcliff coefficient of efficiency (E, absolute average error (AAE, maximum average error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE. Based on R and E parameters, FN is found to be a better prediction tool than ANN for the given data. However, the R and E values for FN are less than SVM. A prediction equation is presented that can be used by practicing geotechnical engineers. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to ascertain the importance of various inputs in the prediction of the output.
Predictive Control of Networked Multiagent Systems via Cloud Computing.
Liu, Guo-Ping
2017-01-18
This paper studies the design and analysis of networked multiagent predictive control systems via cloud computing. A cloud predictive control scheme for networked multiagent systems (NMASs) is proposed to achieve consensus and stability simultaneously and to compensate for network delays actively. The design of the cloud predictive controller for NMASs is detailed. The analysis of the cloud predictive control scheme gives the necessary and sufficient conditions of stability and consensus of closed-loop networked multiagent control systems. The proposed scheme is verified to characterize the dynamical behavior and control performance of NMASs through simulations. The outcome provides a foundation for the development of cooperative and coordinative control of NMASs and its applications.
A model of coauthorship networks
Zhou, Guochang; Li, Jianping; Xie, Zonglin
2017-10-01
A natural way of representing the coauthorship of authors is to use a generalization of graphs known as hypergraphs. A random geometric hypergraph model is proposed here to model coauthorship networks, which is generated by placing nodes on a region of Euclidean space randomly and uniformly, and connecting some nodes if the nodes satisfy particular geometric conditions. Two kinds of geometric conditions are designed to model the collaboration patterns of academic authorities and basic researches respectively. The conditions give geometric expressions of two causes of coauthorship: the authority and similarity of authors. By simulation and calculus, we show that the forepart of the degree distribution of the network generated by the model is mixture Poissonian, and the tail is power-law, which are similar to these of some coauthorship networks. Further, we show more similarities between the generated network and real coauthorship networks: the distribution of cardinalities of hyperedges, high clustering coefficient, assortativity, and small-world property
Wang, Edwin; Zaman, Naif; Mcgee, Shauna; Milanese, Jean-Sébastien; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; O'Connor-McCourt, Maureen
2015-02-01
Tumor genome sequencing leads to documenting thousands of DNA mutations and other genomic alterations. At present, these data cannot be analyzed adequately to aid in the understanding of tumorigenesis and its evolution. Moreover, we have little insight into how to use these data to predict clinical phenotypes and tumor progression to better design patient treatment. To meet these challenges, we discuss a cancer hallmark network framework for modeling genome sequencing data to predict cancer clonal evolution and associated clinical phenotypes. The framework includes: (1) cancer hallmarks that can be represented by a few molecular/signaling networks. 'Network operational signatures' which represent gene regulatory logics/strengths enable to quantify state transitions and measures of hallmark traits. Thus, sets of genomic alterations which are associated with network operational signatures could be linked to the state/measure of hallmark traits. The network operational signature transforms genotypic data (i.e., genomic alterations) to regulatory phenotypic profiles (i.e., regulatory logics/strengths), to cellular phenotypic profiles (i.e., hallmark traits) which lead to clinical phenotypic profiles (i.e., a collection of hallmark traits). Furthermore, the framework considers regulatory logics of the hallmark networks under tumor evolutionary dynamics and therefore also includes: (2) a self-promoting positive feedback loop that is dominated by a genomic instability network and a cell survival/proliferation network is the main driver of tumor clonal evolution. Surrounding tumor stroma and its host immune systems shape the evolutionary paths; (3) cell motility initiating metastasis is a byproduct of the above self-promoting loop activity during tumorigenesis; (4) an emerging hallmark network which triggers genome duplication dominates a feed-forward loop which in turn could act as a rate-limiting step for tumor formation; (5) mutations and other genomic alterations have
Application of General Regression Neural Network to the Prediction of LOD Change
Zhang, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Qi-Jie; Zhu, Jian-Jun; Zhang, Hao
2012-01-01
Traditional methods for predicting the change in length of day (LOD change) are mainly based on some linear models, such as the least square model and autoregression model, etc. However, the LOD change comprises complicated non-linear factors and the prediction effect of the linear models is always not so ideal. Thus, a kind of non-linear neural network — general regression neural network (GRNN) model is tried to make the prediction of the LOD change and the result is compared with the predicted results obtained by taking advantage of the BP (back propagation) neural network model and other models. The comparison result shows that the application of the GRNN to the prediction of the LOD change is highly effective and feasible.
Prediction of tides using back-propagation neural networks
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.
Prediction of tides is very much essential for human activities and to reduce the construction cost in marine environment. This paper presents an application of the artificial neural network with back-propagation procedures for accurate prediction...
ATHENS SEASONAL VARIATION OF GROUND RESISTANCE PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Anbazhagan
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The objective in ground resistance is to attain the most minimal ground safety esteem conceivable that bodes well monetarily and physically. An application of artificial neural networks (ANN to presage and relegation has been growing rapidly due to sundry unique characteristics of ANN models. A decent forecast is able to capture the dubiousness associated with those ground resistance. A portion of the key instabilities are soil composition, moisture content, temperature, ground electrodes and spacing of the electrodes. Propelled by this need, this paper endeavors to develop a generalized regression neural network (GRNN to predict the ground resistance. The GRNN has a single design parameter and expeditious learning and efficacious modeling for nonlinear time series. The precision of the forecast is applied to the Athens seasonal variation of ground resistance that shows the efficacy of the proposed approach.
Mathematical model for spreading dynamics of social network worms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sun, Xin; Liu, Yan-Heng; Han, Jia-Wei; Liu, Xue-Jie; Li, Bin; Li, Jin
2012-01-01
In this paper, a mathematical model for social network worm spreading is presented from the viewpoint of social engineering. This model consists of two submodels. Firstly, a human behavior model based on game theory is suggested for modeling and predicting the expected behaviors of a network user encountering malicious messages. The game situation models the actions of a user under the condition that the system may be infected at the time of opening a malicious message. Secondly, a social network accessing model is proposed to characterize the dynamics of network users, by which the number of online susceptible users can be determined at each time step. Several simulation experiments are carried out on artificial social networks. The results show that (1) the proposed mathematical model can well describe the spreading dynamics of social network worms; (2) weighted network topology greatly affects the spread of worms; (3) worms spread even faster on hybrid social networks
Telecommunications network modelling, planning and design
Evans, Sharon
2003-01-01
Telecommunication Network Modelling, Planning and Design addresses sophisticated modelling techniques from the perspective of the communications industry and covers some of the major issues facing telecommunications network engineers and managers today. Topics covered include network planning for transmission systems, modelling of SDH transport network structures and telecommunications network design and performance modelling, as well as network costs and ROI modelling and QoS in 3G networks.
PREDICTING CUSTOMER CHURN IN BANKING INDUSTRY USING NEURAL NETWORKS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alisa Bilal Zorić
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present a case study of usage of one of the data mining methods, neural network, in knowledge discovery from databases in the banking industry. Data mining is automated process of analysing, organization or grouping a large set of data from different perspectives and summarizing it into useful information using special algorithms. Data mining can help to resolve banking problems by finding some regularity, causality and correlation to business information which are not visible at first sight because they are hidden in large amounts of data. In this paper, we used one of the data mining methods, neural network, within the software package Alyuda NeuroInteligence to predict customer churn in bank. The focus on customer churn is to determinate the customers who are at risk of leaving and analysing whether those customers are worth retaining. Neural network is statistical learning model inspired by biological neural and it is used to estimate or approximate functions that can depend on a large number of inputs which are generally unknown. Although the method itself is complicated, there are tools that enable the use of neural networks without much prior knowledge of how they operate. The results show that clients who use more bank services (products are more loyal, so bank should focus on those clients who use less than three products, and offer them products according to their needs. Similar results are obtained for different network topologies.
Artificial neural networks application for solid fuel slagging intensity predictions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kakietek Sławomir
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Slagging issues present in pulverized steam boilers very often lead to heat transfer problems, corrosion and not planned outages of boilers which increase the cost of energy production and decrease the efficiency of energy production. Slagging especially occurs in regions with reductive atmospheres which nowadays are very common due to very strict limitations in NOx emissions. Moreover alternative fuels like biomass which are also used in combustion systems from two decades in order to decrease CO2 emissions also usually increase the risk of slagging. Thus the prediction of slagging properties of fuels is not the minor issue which can be neglected before purchasing or mixing of fuels. This however is rather difficult to estimate and even commonly known standard laboratory methods like fusion temperature determination or special indexers calculated on the basis of proximate and ultimate analyses, very often have no reasonable correlation to real boiler fuel behaviour. In this paper the method of determination of slagging properties of solid fuels based on laboratory investigation and artificial neural networks were presented. A fuel data base with over 40 fuels was created. Neural networks simulations were carried out in order to predict the beginning temperature and intensity of slagging. Reasonable results were obtained for some of tested neural networks, especially for hybrid feedforward networks with PCA technique. Consequently neural network model will be used in Common Intelligent Boiler Operation Platform (CIBOP being elaborated within CERUBIS research project for two BP-1150 and BB-1150 steam boilers. The model among others enables proper fuel selection in order to minimize slagging risk.
Constitutive modelling of composite biopolymer networks.
Fallqvist, B; Kroon, M
2016-04-21
The mechanical behaviour of biopolymer networks is to a large extent determined at a microstructural level where the characteristics of individual filaments and the interactions between them determine the response at a macroscopic level. Phenomena such as viscoelasticity and strain-hardening followed by strain-softening are observed experimentally in these networks, often due to microstructural changes (such as filament sliding, rupture and cross-link debonding). Further, composite structures can also be formed with vastly different mechanical properties as compared to the individual networks. In this present paper, we present a constitutive model presented in a continuum framework aimed at capturing these effects. Special care is taken to formulate thermodynamically consistent evolution laws for dissipative effects. This model, incorporating possible anisotropic network properties, is based on a strain energy function, split into an isochoric and a volumetric part. Generalisation to three dimensions is performed by numerical integration over the unit sphere. Model predictions indicate that the constitutive model is well able to predict the elastic and viscoelastic response of biological networks, and to an extent also composite structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Campus network security model study
Zhang, Yong-ku; Song, Li-ren
2011-12-01
Campus network security is growing importance, Design a very effective defense hacker attacks, viruses, data theft, and internal defense system, is the focus of the study in this paper. This paper compared the firewall; IDS based on the integrated, then design of a campus network security model, and detail the specific implementation principle.
Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models
Fushiki, Tadayoshi
2005-01-01
We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...
Genetic prediction of type 2 diabetes using deep neural network.
Kim, J; Kim, J; Kwak, M J; Bajaj, M
2018-04-01
Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) has strong heritability but genetic models to explain heritability have been challenging. We tested deep neural network (DNN) to predict T2DM using the nested case-control study of Nurses' Health Study (3326 females, 45.6% T2DM) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (2502 males, 46.5% T2DM). We selected 96, 214, 399, and 678 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) through Fisher's exact test and L1-penalized logistic regression. We split each dataset randomly in 4:1 to train prediction models and test their performance. DNN and logistic regressions showed better area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves than the clinical model when 399 or more SNPs included. DNN was superior than logistic regressions in AUC with 399 or more SNPs in male and 678 SNPs in female. Addition of clinical factors consistently increased AUC of DNN but failed to improve logistic regressions with 214 or more SNPs. In conclusion, we show that DNN can be a versatile tool to predict T2DM incorporating large numbers of SNPs and clinical information. Limitations include a relatively small number of the subjects mostly of European ethnicity. Further studies are warranted to confirm and improve performance of genetic prediction models using DNN in different ethnic groups. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Prediction of residential building energy consumption: A neural network approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Biswas, M.A. Rafe; Robinson, Melvin D.; Fumo, Nelson
2016-01-01
Some of the challenges to predict energy utilization has gained recognition in the residential sector due to the significant energy consumption in recent decades. However, the modeling of residential building energy consumption is still underdeveloped for optimal and robust solutions while this research area has become of greater relevance with significant advances in computation and simulation. Such advances include the advent of artificial intelligence research in statistical model development. Artificial neural network has emerged as a key method to address the issue of nonlinearity of building energy data and the robust calculation of large and dynamic data. The development and validation of such models on one of the TxAIRE Research houses has been demonstrated in this paper. The TxAIRE houses have been designed to serve as realistic test facilities for demonstrating new technologies. The input variables used from the house data include number of days, outdoor temperature and solar radiation while the output variables are house and heat pump energy consumption. The models based on Levenberg-Marquardt and OWO-Newton algorithms had promising results of coefficients of determination within 0.87–0.91, which is comparable to prior literature. Further work will be explored to develop a robust model for residential building application. - Highlights: • A TxAIRE research house energy consumption data was collected in model development. • Neural network models developed using Levenberg–Marquardt or OWO-Newton algorithms. • Model results match well with data and statistically consistent with literature.
Generalized Network Psychometrics : Combining Network and Latent Variable Models
Epskamp, S.; Rhemtulla, M.; Borsboom, D.
2017-01-01
We introduce the network model as a formal psychometric model, conceptualizing the covariance between psychometric indicators as resulting from pairwise interactions between observable variables in a network structure. This contrasts with standard psychometric models, in which the covariance between
Time series prediction with simple recurrent neural networks ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A hybrid of the two called Elman-Jordan (or Multi-recurrent) neural network is also being used. In this study, we evaluated the performance of these neural networks on three established bench mark time series prediction problems. Results from the experiments showed that Jordan neural network performed significantly ...
Neural network modeling of emotion
Levine, Daniel S.
2007-03-01
This article reviews the history and development of computational neural network modeling of cognitive and behavioral processes that involve emotion. The exposition starts with models of classical conditioning dating from the early 1970s. Then it proceeds toward models of interactions between emotion and attention. Then models of emotional influences on decision making are reviewed, including some speculative (not and not yet simulated) models of the evolution of decision rules. Through the late 1980s, the neural networks developed to model emotional processes were mainly embodiments of significant functional principles motivated by psychological data. In the last two decades, network models of these processes have become much more detailed in their incorporation of known physiological properties of specific brain regions, while preserving many of the psychological principles from the earlier models. Most network models of emotional processes so far have dealt with positive and negative emotion in general, rather than specific emotions such as fear, joy, sadness, and anger. But a later section of this article reviews a few models relevant to specific emotions: one family of models of auditory fear conditioning in rats, and one model of induced pleasure enhancing creativity in humans. Then models of emotional disorders are reviewed. The article concludes with philosophical statements about the essential contributions of emotion to intelligent behavior and the importance of quantitative theories and models to the interdisciplinary enterprise of understanding the interactions of emotion, cognition, and behavior.
Modeling of fluctuating reaction networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lipshtat, A.; Biham, O.
2004-01-01
Full Text:Various dynamical systems are organized as reaction networks, where the population size of one component affects the populations of all its neighbors. Such networks can be found in interstellar surface chemistry, cell biology, thin film growth and other systems. I cases where the populations of reactive species are large, the network can be modeled by rate equations which provide all reaction rates within mean field approximation. However, in small systems that are partitioned into sub-micron size, these populations strongly fluctuate. Under these conditions rate equations fail and the master equation is needed for modeling these reactions. However, the number of equations in the master equation grows exponentially with the number of reactive species, severely limiting its feasibility for complex networks. Here we present a method which dramatically reduces the number of equations, thus enabling the incorporation of the master equation in complex reaction networks. The method is examplified in the context of reaction network on dust grains. Its applicability for genetic networks will be discussed. 1. Efficient simulations of gas-grain chemistry in interstellar clouds. Azi Lipshtat and Ofer Biham, Phys. Rev. Lett. 93 (2004), 170601. 2. Modeling of negative autoregulated genetic networks in single cells. Azi Lipshtat, Hagai B. Perets, Nathalie Q. Balaban and Ofer Biham, Gene: evolutionary genomics (2004), In press
Centrality Robustness and Link Prediction in Complex Social Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Davidsen, Søren Atmakuri; Ortiz-Arroyo, Daniel
2012-01-01
. Secondly, we present a method to predict edges in dynamic social networks. Our experimental results indicate that the robustness of the centrality measures applied to more realistic social networks follows a predictable pattern and that the use of temporal statistics could improve the accuracy achieved......This chapter addresses two important issues in social network analysis that involve uncertainty. Firstly, we present am analysis on the robustness of centrality measures that extend the work presented in Borgati et al. using three types of complex network structures and one real social network...
MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2012-07-02
Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.
Artificial neural network application for predicting soil distribution coefficient of nickel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Falamaki, Amin
2013-01-01
The distribution (or partition) coefficient (K d ) is an applicable parameter for modeling contaminant and radionuclide transport as well as risk analysis. Selection of this parameter may cause significant error in predicting the impacts of contaminant migration or site-remediation options. In this regards, various models were presented to predict K d values for different contaminants specially heavy metals and radionuclides. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) is used to present simplified model for predicting K d of nickel. The main objective is to develop a more accurate model with a minimal number of parameters, which can be determined experimentally or select by review of different studies. In addition, the effects of training as well as the type of the network are considered. The K d values of Ni is strongly dependent on pH of the soil and mathematical relationships were presented between pH and K d of nickel recently. In this study, the same database of these presented models was used to verify that neural network may be more useful tools for predicting of K d . Two different types of ANN, multilayer perceptron and redial basis function, were used to investigate the effect of the network geometry on the results. In addition, each network was trained by 80 and 90% of the data and tested for 20 and 10% of the rest data. Then the results of the networks compared with the results of the mathematical models. Although the networks trained by 80 and 90% of the data the results show that all the networks predict with higher accuracy relative to mathematical models which were derived by 100% of data. More training of a network increases the accuracy of the network. Multilayer perceptron network used in this study predicts better than redial basis function network. - Highlights: ► Simplified models for predicting K d of nickel presented using artificial neural networks. ► Multilayer perceptron and redial basis function used to predict K d of nickel in
Prediction of Austenite Formation Temperatures Using Artificial Neural Networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schulze, P; Schmidl, E; Grund, T; Lampke, T
2016-01-01
For the modeling and design of heat treatments, in consideration of the development/ transformation of the microstructure, different material data depending on the chemical composition, the respective microstructure/phases and the temperature are necessary. Material data are, e.g. the thermal conductivity, heat capacity, thermal expansion and transformation data etc. The quality of thermal simulations strongly depends on the accuracy of the material data. For many materials, the required data - in particular for different microstructures and temperatures - are rare in the literature. In addition, a different chemical composition within the permitted limits of the considered steel alloy cannot be predicted. A solution for this problem is provided by the calculation of material data using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). In the present study, the start and finish temperatures of the transformation from the bcc lattice to the fcc lattice structure of hypoeutectoid steels are calculated using an Artificial Neural Network. An appropriate database containing different transformation temperatures (austenite formation temperatures) to train the ANN is selected from the literature. In order to find a suitable feedforward network, the network topologies as well as the activation functions of the hidden layers are varied and subsequently evaluated in terms of the prediction accuracy. The transformation temperatures calculated by the ANN exhibit a very good compliance compared to the experimental data. The results show that the prediction performance is even higher compared to classical empirical equations such as Andrews or Brandis. Therefore, it can be assumed that the presented ANN is a convenient tool to distinguish between bcc and fcc phases in hypoeutectoid steels. (paper)
Prediction of Austenite Formation Temperatures Using Artificial Neural Networks
Schulze, P.; Schmidl, E.; Grund, T.; Lampke, T.
2016-03-01
For the modeling and design of heat treatments, in consideration of the development/ transformation of the microstructure, different material data depending on the chemical composition, the respective microstructure/phases and the temperature are necessary. Material data are, e.g. the thermal conductivity, heat capacity, thermal expansion and transformation data etc. The quality of thermal simulations strongly depends on the accuracy of the material data. For many materials, the required data - in particular for different microstructures and temperatures - are rare in the literature. In addition, a different chemical composition within the permitted limits of the considered steel alloy cannot be predicted. A solution for this problem is provided by the calculation of material data using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). In the present study, the start and finish temperatures of the transformation from the bcc lattice to the fcc lattice structure of hypoeutectoid steels are calculated using an Artificial Neural Network. An appropriate database containing different transformation temperatures (austenite formation temperatures) to train the ANN is selected from the literature. In order to find a suitable feedforward network, the network topologies as well as the activation functions of the hidden layers are varied and subsequently evaluated in terms of the prediction accuracy. The transformation temperatures calculated by the ANN exhibit a very good compliance compared to the experimental data. The results show that the prediction performance is even higher compared to classical empirical equations such as Andrews or Brandis. Therefore, it can be assumed that the presented ANN is a convenient tool to distinguish between bcc and fcc phases in hypoeutectoid steels.
Predicting pressure drop in venturi scrubbers with artificial neural networks.
Nasseh, S; Mohebbi, A; Jeirani, Z; Sarrafi, A
2007-05-08
In this study a new approach based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) has been used to predict pressure drop in venturi scrubbers. The main parameters affecting the pressure drop are mainly the gas velocity in the throat of venturi scrubber (V(g)(th)), liquid to gas flow rate ratio (L/G), and axial distance of the venturi scrubber (z). Three sets of experimental data from five different venturi scrubbers have been applied to design three independent ANNs. Comparing the results of these ANNs and the calculated results from available models shows that the results of ANNs have a better agreement with experimental data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jing Lu
2014-11-01
Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.
Ge, Jing; Zhang, Guoping
2015-01-01
Advanced intelligent methodologies could help detect and predict diseases from the EEG signals in cases the manual analysis is inefficient available, for instance, the epileptic seizures detection and prediction. This is because the diversity and the evolution of the epileptic seizures make it very difficult in detecting and identifying the undergoing disease. Fortunately, the determinism and nonlinearity in a time series could characterize the state changes. Literature review indicates that the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) could examine the nonlinearity to gain insight into the EEG signals but very limited work has been done to address the quantitative DVV approach. Hence, the outcomes of the quantitative DVV should be evaluated to detect the epileptic seizures. To develop a new epileptic seizure detection method based on quantitative DVV. This new epileptic seizure detection method employed an improved delay vector variance (IDVV) to extract the nonlinearity value as a distinct feature. Then a multi-kernel functions strategy was proposed in the extreme learning machine (ELM) network to provide precise disease detection and prediction. The nonlinearity is more sensitive than the energy and entropy. 87.5% overall accuracy of recognition and 75.0% overall accuracy of forecasting were achieved. The proposed IDVV and multi-kernel ELM based method was feasible and effective for epileptic EEG detection. Hence, the newly proposed method has importance for practical applications.
An integrated artificial neural networks approach for predicting global radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Azadeh, A.; Maghsoudi, A.; Sohrabkhani, S.
2009-01-01
This article presents an integrated artificial neural network (ANN) approach for predicting solar global radiation by climatological variables. The integrated ANN trains and tests data with multi layer perceptron (MLP) approach which has the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The proposed approach is particularly useful for locations where no available measurement equipment. Also, it considers all related climatological and meteorological parameters as input variables. To show the applicability and superiority of the integrated ANN approach, monthly data were collected for 6 years (1995-2000) in six nominal cities in Iran. Separate model for each city is considered and the quantity of solar global radiation in each city is calculated. Furthermore an integrated ANN model has been introduced for prediction of solar global radiation. The acquired results of the integrated model have shown high accuracy of about 94%. The results of the integrated model have been compared with traditional angstrom's model to show its considerable accuracy. Therefore, the proposed approach can be used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar radiation in the remote and rural locations with no direct measurement equipment.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Daminelli, Simone; Thomas, Josephine Maria; Durán, Claudio; Vittorio Cannistraci, Carlo
2015-01-01
Bipartite networks are powerful descriptions of complex systems characterized by two different classes of nodes and connections allowed only across but not within the two classes. Unveiling physical principles, building theories and suggesting physical models to predict bipartite links such as product-consumer connections in recommendation systems or drug–target interactions in molecular networks can provide priceless information to improve e-commerce or to accelerate pharmaceutical research. The prediction of nonobserved connections starting from those already present in the topology of a network is known as the link-prediction problem. It represents an important subject both in many-body interaction theory in physics and in new algorithms for applied tools in computer science. The rationale is that the existing connectivity structure of a network can suggest where new connections can appear with higher likelihood in an evolving network, or where nonobserved connections are missing in a partially known network. Surprisingly, current complex network theory presents a theoretical bottle-neck: a general framework for local-based link prediction directly in the bipartite domain is missing. Here, we overcome this theoretical obstacle and present a formal definition of common neighbour index and local-community-paradigm (LCP) for bipartite networks. As a consequence, we are able to introduce the first node-neighbourhood-based and LCP-based models for topological link prediction that utilize the bipartite domain. We performed link prediction evaluations in several networks of different size and of disparate origin, including technological, social and biological systems. Our models significantly improve topological prediction in many bipartite networks because they exploit local physical driving-forces that participate in the formation and organization of many real-world bipartite networks. Furthermore, we present a local-based formalism that allows to intuitively
Daminelli, Simone; Thomas, Josephine Maria; Durán, Claudio; Vittorio Cannistraci, Carlo
2015-11-01
Bipartite networks are powerful descriptions of complex systems characterized by two different classes of nodes and connections allowed only across but not within the two classes. Unveiling physical principles, building theories and suggesting physical models to predict bipartite links such as product-consumer connections in recommendation systems or drug-target interactions in molecular networks can provide priceless information to improve e-commerce or to accelerate pharmaceutical research. The prediction of nonobserved connections starting from those already present in the topology of a network is known as the link-prediction problem. It represents an important subject both in many-body interaction theory in physics and in new algorithms for applied tools in computer science. The rationale is that the existing connectivity structure of a network can suggest where new connections can appear with higher likelihood in an evolving network, or where nonobserved connections are missing in a partially known network. Surprisingly, current complex network theory presents a theoretical bottle-neck: a general framework for local-based link prediction directly in the bipartite domain is missing. Here, we overcome this theoretical obstacle and present a formal definition of common neighbour index and local-community-paradigm (LCP) for bipartite networks. As a consequence, we are able to introduce the first node-neighbourhood-based and LCP-based models for topological link prediction that utilize the bipartite domain. We performed link prediction evaluations in several networks of different size and of disparate origin, including technological, social and biological systems. Our models significantly improve topological prediction in many bipartite networks because they exploit local physical driving-forces that participate in the formation and organization of many real-world bipartite networks. Furthermore, we present a local-based formalism that allows to intuitively
Incidents Prediction in Road Junctions Using Artificial Neural Networks
Hajji, Tarik; Alami Hassani, Aicha; Ouazzani Jamil, Mohammed
2018-05-01
The implementation of an incident detection system (IDS) is an indispensable operation in the analysis of the road traffics. However the IDS may, in no case, represent an alternative to the classical monitoring system controlled by the human eye. The aim of this work is to increase detection and prediction probability of incidents in camera-monitored areas. Knowing that, these areas are monitored by multiple cameras and few supervisors. Our solution is to use Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to analyze moving objects trajectories on captured images. We first propose a modelling of the trajectories and their characteristics, after we develop a learning database for valid and invalid trajectories, and then we carry out a comparative study to find the artificial neural network architecture that maximizes the rate of valid and invalid trajectories recognition.
Melanoma Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Modeling and control of magnetorheological fluid dampers using neural networks
Wang, D. H.; Liao, W. H.
2005-02-01
Due to the inherent nonlinear nature of magnetorheological (MR) fluid dampers, one of the challenging aspects for utilizing these devices to achieve high system performance is the development of accurate models and control algorithms that can take advantage of their unique characteristics. In this paper, the direct identification and inverse dynamic modeling for MR fluid dampers using feedforward and recurrent neural networks are studied. The trained direct identification neural network model can be used to predict the damping force of the MR fluid damper on line, on the basis of the dynamic responses across the MR fluid damper and the command voltage, and the inverse dynamic neural network model can be used to generate the command voltage according to the desired damping force through supervised learning. The architectures and the learning methods of the dynamic neural network models and inverse neural network models for MR fluid dampers are presented, and some simulation results are discussed. Finally, the trained neural network models are applied to predict and control the damping force of the MR fluid damper. Moreover, validation methods for the neural network models developed are proposed and used to evaluate their performance. Validation results with different data sets indicate that the proposed direct identification dynamic model using the recurrent neural network can be used to predict the damping force accurately and the inverse identification dynamic model using the recurrent neural network can act as a damper controller to generate the command voltage when the MR fluid damper is used in a semi-active mode.
Predictive models of moth development
Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...
Predictive Models and Computational Embryology
EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...
Link Prediction Methods and Their Accuracy for Different Social Networks and Network Metrics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fei Gao
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Currently, we are experiencing a rapid growth of the number of social-based online systems. The availability of the vast amounts of data gathered in those systems brings new challenges that we face when trying to analyse it. One of the intensively researched topics is the prediction of social connections between users. Although a lot of effort has been made to develop new prediction approaches, the existing methods are not comprehensively analysed. In this paper we investigate the correlation between network metrics and accuracy of different prediction methods. We selected six time-stamped real-world social networks and ten most widely used link prediction methods. The results of the experiments show that the performance of some methods has a strong correlation with certain network metrics. We managed to distinguish “prediction friendly” networks, for which most of the prediction methods give good performance, as well as “prediction unfriendly” networks, for which most of the methods result in high prediction error. Correlation analysis between network metrics and prediction accuracy of prediction methods may form the basis of a metalearning system where based on network characteristics it will be able to recommend the right prediction method for a given network.
UAV Trajectory Modeling Using Neural Networks
Xue, Min
2017-01-01
Massive small unmanned aerial vehicles are envisioned to operate in the near future. While there are lots of research problems need to be addressed before dense operations can happen, trajectory modeling remains as one of the keys to understand and develop policies, regulations, and requirements for safe and efficient unmanned aerial vehicle operations. The fidelity requirement of a small unmanned vehicle trajectory model is high because these vehicles are sensitive to winds due to their small size and low operational altitude. Both vehicle control systems and dynamic models are needed for trajectory modeling, which makes the modeling a great challenge, especially considering the fact that manufactures are not willing to share their control systems. This work proposed to use a neural network approach for modelling small unmanned vehicle's trajectory without knowing its control system and bypassing exhaustive efforts for aerodynamic parameter identification. As a proof of concept, instead of collecting data from flight tests, this work used the trajectory data generated by a mathematical vehicle model for training and testing the neural network. The results showed great promise because the trained neural network can predict 4D trajectories accurately, and prediction errors were less than 2:0 meters in both temporal and spatial dimensions.
Predictive Modeling in Race Walking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krzysztof Wiktorowicz
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.
Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.
Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng
2009-01-01
Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.
Lei, Tao; Guo, Xianghong; Sun, Xihuan; Ma, Juanjuan; Zhang, Shaowen; Zhang, Yong
2018-05-01
Quantitative prediction of soil urea conversion is crucial in determining the mechanism of nitrogen transformation and understanding the dynamics of soil nutrients. This study aimed to establish a combinatorial prediction model (MCA-F-ANN) for soil urea conversion and quantify the relative importance degrees (RIDs) of influencing factors with the MCA-F-ANN method. Data samples were obtained from laboratory culture experiments, and soil nitrogen content and physicochemical properties were measured every other day. Results showed that when MCA-F-ANN was used, the mean-absolute-percent error values of NH 4 + -N, NO 3 - -N, and NH 3 contents were 3.180%, 2.756%, and 3.656%, respectively. MCA-F-ANN predicted urea transformation under multi-factor coupling conditions more accurately than traditional models did. The RIDs of reaction time (RT), electrical conductivity (EC), temperature (T), pH, nitrogen application rate (F), and moisture content (W) were 32.2%-36.5%, 24.0%-28.9%, 12.8%-15.2%, 9.8%-12.5%, 7.8%-11.0%, and 3.5%-6.0%, respectively. The RIDs of the influencing factors in a descending order showed the pattern RT > EC > T > pH > F > W. RT and EC were the key factors in the urea conversion process. The prediction accuracy of urea transformation process was improved, and the RIDs of the influencing factors were quantified. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
An Artificial Neural Network Based Short-term Dynamic Prediction of Algae Bloom
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yao Junyang
2014-06-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of short-term prediction of algae bloom based on artificial neural network. Firstly, principal component analysis is applied to water environmental factors in algae bloom raceway ponds to get main factors that influence the formation of algae blooms. Then, a model of short-term dynamic prediction based on neural network is built with the current chlorophyll_a values as input and the chlorophyll_a values in the next moment as output to realize short-term dynamic prediction of algae bloom. Simulation results show that the model can realize short-term prediction of algae bloom effectively.
Prediction of pelvic organ prolapse using an artificial neural network.
Robinson, Christopher J; Swift, Steven; Johnson, Donna D; Almeida, Jonas S
2008-08-01
The objective of this investigation was to test the ability of a feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) to differentiate patients who have pelvic organ prolapse (POP) from those who retain good pelvic organ support. Following institutional review board approval, patients with POP (n = 87) and controls with good pelvic organ support (n = 368) were identified from the urogynecology research database. Historical and clinical information was extracted from the database. Data analysis included the training of a feedforward ANN, variable selection, and external validation of the model with an independent data set. Twenty variables were used. The median-performing ANN model used a median of 3 (quartile 1:3 to quartile 3:5) variables and achieved an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.90 (external, independent validation set). Ninety percent sensitivity and 83% specificity were obtained in the external validation by ANN classification. Feedforward ANN modeling is applicable to the identification and prediction of POP.
Mathematical model for dissolved oxygen prediction in Cirata ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper presents the implementation and performance of mathematical model to predict theconcentration of dissolved oxygen in Cirata Reservoir, West Java by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The simulation program was created using Visual Studio 2012 C# software with ANN model implemented in it. Prediction ...
The Algorithm of Link Prediction on Social Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liyan Dong
2013-01-01
Full Text Available At present, most link prediction algorithms are based on the similarity between two entities. Social network topology information is one of the main sources to design the similarity function between entities. But the existing link prediction algorithms do not apply the network topology information sufficiently. For lack of traditional link prediction algorithms, we propose two improved algorithms: CNGF algorithm based on local information and KatzGF algorithm based on global information network. For the defect of the stationary of social network, we also provide the link prediction algorithm based on nodes multiple attributes information. Finally, we verified these algorithms on DBLP data set, and the experimental results show that the performance of the improved algorithm is superior to that of the traditional link prediction algorithm.
Network model of security system
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adamczyk Piotr
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The article presents the concept of building a network security model and its application in the process of risk analysis. It indicates the possibility of a new definition of the role of the network models in the safety analysis. Special attention was paid to the development of the use of an algorithm describing the process of identifying the assets, vulnerability and threats in a given context. The aim of the article is to present how this algorithm reduced the complexity of the problem by eliminating from the base model these components that have no links with others component and as a result and it was possible to build a real network model corresponding to reality.
Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.
Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai
2016-05-01
Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Prediction of municipal solid waste generation using nonlinear autoregressive network.
Younes, Mohammad K; Nopiah, Z M; Basri, N E Ahmad; Basri, H; Abushammala, Mohammed F M; Maulud, K N A
2015-12-01
Most of the developing countries have solid waste management problems. Solid waste strategic planning requires accurate prediction of the quality and quantity of the generated waste. In developing countries, such as Malaysia, the solid waste generation rate is increasing rapidly, due to population growth and new consumption trends that characterize society. This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) approach using feedforward nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) to predict annual solid waste generation in relation to demographic and economic variables like population number, gross domestic product, electricity demand per capita and employment and unemployment numbers. In addition, variable selection procedures are also developed to select a significant explanatory variable. The model evaluation was performed using coefficient of determination (R(2)) and mean square error (MSE). The optimum model that produced the lowest testing MSE (2.46) and the highest R(2) (0.97) had three inputs (gross domestic product, population and employment), eight neurons and one lag in the hidden layer, and used Fletcher-Powell's conjugate gradient as the training algorithm.
Ivanciuc, Ovidiu; Ivanciuc, Teodora; Klein, Douglas J
2013-06-01
Usual quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models are computed from unstructured input data, by using a vector of molecular descriptors for each chemical in the dataset. Another alternative is to consider the structural relationships between the chemical structures, such as molecular similarity, presence of certain substructures, or chemical transformations between compounds. We defined a class of network-QSAR models based on molecular networks induced by a sequence of substitution reactions on a chemical structure that generates a partially ordered set (or poset) oriented graph that may be used to predict various molecular properties with quantitative superstructure-activity relationships (QSSAR). The network-QSAR interpolation models defined on poset graphs, namely average poset, cluster expansion, and spline poset, were tested with success for the prediction of several physicochemical properties for diverse chemicals. We introduce the flow network QSAR, a new poset regression model in which the dataset of chemicals, represented as a reaction poset, is transformed into an oriented network of electrical resistances in which the current flow results in a potential at each node. The molecular property considered in the QSSAR model is represented as the electrical potential, and the value of this potential at a particular node is determined by the electrical resistances assigned to each edge and by a system of batteries. Each node with a known value for the molecular property is attached to a battery that sets the potential on that node to the value of the respective molecular property, and no external battery is attached to nodes from the prediction set, representing chemicals for which the values of the molecular property are not known or are intended to be predicted. The flow network QSAR algorithm determines the values of the molecular property for the prediction set of molecules by applying Ohm's law and Kirchhoff's current law to the poset
Delay and Disruption Tolerant Networking MACHETE Model
Segui, John S.; Jennings, Esther H.; Gao, Jay L.
2011-01-01
To verify satisfaction of communication requirements imposed by unique missions, as early as 2000, the Communications Networking Group at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) saw the need for an environment to support interplanetary communication protocol design, validation, and characterization. JPL's Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE), described in Simulator of Space Communication Networks (NPO-41373) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 29, No. 8 (August 2005), p. 44, combines various commercial, non-commercial, and in-house custom tools for simulation and performance analysis of space networks. The MACHETE environment supports orbital analysis, link budget analysis, communications network simulations, and hardware-in-the-loop testing. As NASA is expanding its Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) capabilities to support planned and future missions, building infrastructure to maintain services and developing enabling technologies, an important and broader role is seen for MACHETE in design-phase evaluation of future SCaN architectures. To support evaluation of the developing Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) field and its applicability for space networks, JPL developed MACHETE models for DTN Bundle Protocol (BP) and Licklider/Long-haul Transmission Protocol (LTP). DTN is an Internet Research Task Force (IRTF) architecture providing communication in and/or through highly stressed networking environments such as space exploration and battlefield networks. Stressed networking environments include those with intermittent (predictable and unknown) connectivity, large and/or variable delays, and high bit error rates. To provide its services over existing domain specific protocols, the DTN protocols reside at the application layer of the TCP/IP stack, forming a store-and-forward overlay network. The key capabilities of the Bundle Protocol include custody-based reliability, the ability to cope with intermittent connectivity
Current approaches to gene regulatory network modelling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Brazma Alvis
2007-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Many different approaches have been developed to model and simulate gene regulatory networks. We proposed the following categories for gene regulatory network models: network parts lists, network topology models, network control logic models, and dynamic models. Here we will describe some examples for each of these categories. We will study the topology of gene regulatory networks in yeast in more detail, comparing a direct network derived from transcription factor binding data and an indirect network derived from genome-wide expression data in mutants. Regarding the network dynamics we briefly describe discrete and continuous approaches to network modelling, then describe a hybrid model called Finite State Linear Model and demonstrate that some simple network dynamics can be simulated in this model.
Dėdelė, Audrius; Miškinytė, Auksė
2015-09-01
In many countries, road traffic is one of the main sources of air pollution associated with adverse effects on human health and environment. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is considered to be a measure of traffic-related air pollution, with concentrations tending to be higher near highways, along busy roads, and in the city centers, and the exceedances are mainly observed at measurement stations located close to traffic. In order to assess the air quality in the city and the air pollution impact on public health, air quality models are used. However, firstly, before the model can be used for these purposes, it is important to evaluate the accuracy of the dispersion modelling as one of the most widely used method. The monitoring and dispersion modelling are two components of air quality monitoring system (AQMS), in which statistical comparison was made in this research. The evaluation of the Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System (ADMS-Urban) was made by comparing monthly modelled NO2 concentrations with the data of continuous air quality monitoring stations in Kaunas city. The statistical measures of model performance were calculated for annual and monthly concentrations of NO2 for each monitoring station site. The spatial analysis was made using geographic information systems (GIS). The calculation of statistical parameters indicated a good ADMS-Urban model performance for the prediction of NO2. The results of this study showed that the agreement of modelled values and observations was better for traffic monitoring stations compared to the background and residential stations.
Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics
Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron
2015-01-01
Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.
Propagating semantic information in biochemical network models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Schulz Marvin
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background To enable automatic searches, alignments, and model combination, the elements of systems biology models need to be compared and matched across models. Elements can be identified by machine-readable biological annotations, but assigning such annotations and matching non-annotated elements is tedious work and calls for automation. Results A new method called "semantic propagation" allows the comparison of model elements based not only on their own annotations, but also on annotations of surrounding elements in the network. One may either propagate feature vectors, describing the annotations of individual elements, or quantitative similarities between elements from different models. Based on semantic propagation, we align partially annotated models and find annotations for non-annotated model elements. Conclusions Semantic propagation and model alignment are included in the open-source library semanticSBML, available on sourceforge. Online services for model alignment and for annotation prediction can be used at http://www.semanticsbml.org.
Particle swarm optimization of a neural network model in a ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
. Since tool life is critically affected by the tool wear, accurate prediction of this wear ... In their work, they established an improvement in the quality ... objective optimization of hard turning using neural network modelling and swarm intelligence ...
Predictive power control in wireless sensor networks
Chincoli, M.; Syed, Aly; Mocanu, D.C.; Liotta, A.
2016-01-01
Communications in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are affected by dynamic environments, variable signal fluctuations and interference. Thus, prompt actions are necessary to achieve dependable communications and meet quality of service requirements. To this end, the reactive algorithms used in
water demand prediction using artificial neural network
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
2017-01-01
Jan 1, 2017 ... Interface for activation and deactivation of valves. •. Interface demand ... process could be done and monitored at the computer terminal as expected of a .... [15] Arbib, M. A.The Handbook of Brain Theory and Neural. Networks.
Target-Centric Network Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mitchell, Dr. William L.; Clark, Dr. Robert M.
In Target-Centric Network Modeling: Case Studies in Analyzing Complex Intelligence Issues, authors Robert Clark and William Mitchell take an entirely new approach to teaching intelligence analysis. Unlike any other book on the market, it offers case study scenarios using actual intelligence...... reporting formats, along with a tested process that facilitates the production of a wide range of analytical products for civilian, military, and hybrid intelligence environments. Readers will learn how to perform the specific actions of problem definition modeling, target network modeling......, and collaborative sharing in the process of creating a high-quality, actionable intelligence product. The case studies reflect the complexity of twenty-first century intelligence issues by dealing with multi-layered target networks that cut across political, economic, social, technological, and military issues...
A Complex Network Approach to Distributional Semantic Models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akira Utsumi
Full Text Available A number of studies on network analysis have focused on language networks based on free word association, which reflects human lexical knowledge, and have demonstrated the small-world and scale-free properties in the word association network. Nevertheless, there have been very few attempts at applying network analysis to distributional semantic models, despite the fact that these models have been studied extensively as computational or cognitive models of human lexical knowledge. In this paper, we analyze three network properties, namely, small-world, scale-free, and hierarchical properties, of semantic networks created by distributional semantic models. We demonstrate that the created networks generally exhibit the same properties as word association networks. In particular, we show that the distribution of the number of connections in these networks follows the truncated power law, which is also observed in an association network. This indicates that distributional semantic models can provide a plausible model of lexical knowledge. Additionally, the observed differences in the network properties of various implementations of distributional semantic models are consistently explained or predicted by considering the intrinsic semantic features of a word-context matrix and the functions of matrix weighting and smoothing. Furthermore, to simulate a semantic network with the observed network properties, we propose a new growing network model based on the model of Steyvers and Tenenbaum. The idea underlying the proposed model is that both preferential and random attachments are required to reflect different types of semantic relations in network growth process. We demonstrate that this model provides a better explanation of network behaviors generated by distributional semantic models.
Multilevel method for modeling large-scale networks.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Safro, I. M. (Mathematics and Computer Science)
2012-02-24
Understanding the behavior of real complex networks is of great theoretical and practical significance. It includes developing accurate artificial models whose topological properties are similar to the real networks, generating the artificial networks at different scales under special conditions, investigating a network dynamics, reconstructing missing data, predicting network response, detecting anomalies and other tasks. Network generation, reconstruction, and prediction of its future topology are central issues of this field. In this project, we address the questions related to the understanding of the network modeling, investigating its structure and properties, and generating artificial networks. Most of the modern network generation methods are based either on various random graph models (reinforced by a set of properties such as power law distribution of node degrees, graph diameter, and number of triangles) or on the principle of replicating an existing model with elements of randomization such as R-MAT generator and Kronecker product modeling. Hierarchical models operate at different levels of network hierarchy but with the same finest elements of the network. However, in many cases the methods that include randomization and replication elements on the finest relationships between network nodes and modeling that addresses the problem of preserving a set of simplified properties do not fit accurately enough the real networks. Among the unsatisfactory features are numerically inadequate results, non-stability of algorithms on real (artificial) data, that have been tested on artificial (real) data, and incorrect behavior at different scales. One reason is that randomization and replication of existing structures can create conflicts between fine and coarse scales of the real network geometry. Moreover, the randomization and satisfying of some attribute at the same time can abolish those topological attributes that have been undefined or hidden from
An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
IbrahimM. Hamed
2012-08-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.
A COMPARISON BETWEEN THREE PREDICTIVE MODELS OF COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
DUMITRU CIOBANU
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Time series prediction is an open problem and many researchers are trying to find new predictive methods and improvements for the existing ones. Lately methods based on neural networks are used extensively for time series prediction. Also, support vector machines have solved some of the problems faced by neural networks and they began to be widely used for time series prediction. The main drawback of those two methods is that they are global models and in the case of a chaotic time series it is unlikely to find such model. In this paper it is presented a comparison between three predictive from computational intelligence field one based on neural networks one based on support vector machine and another based on chaos theory. We show that the model based on chaos theory is an alternative to the other two methods.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Norbert A. Agana
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Drought is a stochastic natural feature that arises due to intense and persistent shortage of precipitation. Its impact is mostly manifested as agricultural and hydrological droughts following an initial meteorological phenomenon. Drought prediction is essential because it can aid in the preparedness and impact-related management of its effects. This study considers the drought forecasting problem by developing a hybrid predictive model using a denoised empirical mode decomposition (EMD and a deep belief network (DBN. The proposed method first decomposes the data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs using EMD, and a reconstruction of the original data is obtained by considering only relevant IMFs. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA was applied to each IMF to determine the threshold for robust denoising performance. Based on their scaling exponents, irrelevant intrinsic mode functions are identified and suppressed. The proposed method was applied to predict different time scale drought indices across the Colorado River basin using a standardized streamflow index (SSI as the drought index. The results obtained using the proposed method was compared with standard methods such as multilayer perceptron (MLP and support vector regression (SVR. The proposed hybrid model showed improvement in prediction accuracy, especially for multi-step ahead predictions.
Prediction of Asphalt Creep Compliance Using Artificial Neural Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zofka A.
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Creep compliance of the hot-mix asphalt (HMA is a primary input of the pavement thermal cracking prediction model in the recently developed Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (M-EPDG in the US. The HMA creep compliance is typically determined from the Indirect Tension (IDT tests and requires complex experimental setup. On the other hand, creep compliance of asphalt binders is determined from a relatively simple three- point bending test performed in the Bending Beam Rheometer (BBR device. This paper discusses a process of training an Artificial Neural Network (ANN to correlate the creep compliance values obtained from the IDT with those from an innovative approach of testing HMA beams in the BBR. In addition, ANNs are also trained to predict HMA creep compliance from the creep compliance of asphalt binder and vice versa using the BBR setup. All trained ANNs exhibited a very high correlation of 97 to 99 percent between predicted and measured values. The binder creep compliance curves built on the ANN-predicted values also exhibited good correlation with those obtained from laboratory experiments. However, the simulation of trained ANNs on the independent dataset produced a significant deviation from the expected values which was most likely caused by the differences in material composition, such as aggregate type and gradation, presence of recycled additives, and binder type.
Using machine learning, neural networks and statistics to predict bankruptcy
Pompe, P.P.M.; Feelders, A.J.; Feelders, A.J.
1997-01-01
Recent literature strongly suggests that machine learning approaches to classification outperform "classical" statistical methods. We make a comparison between the performance of linear discriminant analysis, classification trees, and neural networks in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Linear
Neural Network Predictions of the 4-Quadrant Wageningen Propeller Series
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Roddy, Robert F; Hess, David E; Faller, Will
2006-01-01
.... This report describes the development of feedforward neural network (FFNN) predictions of four-quadrant thrust and torque behavior for the Wageningen B-Screw Series of propellers and for two Wageningen ducted propeller series...
Prediction of quantitative phenotypes based on genetic networks: a case study in yeast sporulation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shen Li
2010-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background An exciting application of genetic network is to predict phenotypic consequences for environmental cues or genetic perturbations. However, de novo prediction for quantitative phenotypes based on network topology is always a challenging task. Results Using yeast sporulation as a model system, we have assembled a genetic network from literature and exploited Boolean network to predict sporulation efficiency change upon deleting individual genes. We observe that predictions based on the curated network correlate well with the experimentally measured values. In addition, computational analysis reveals the robustness and hysteresis of the yeast sporulation network and uncovers several patterns of sporulation efficiency change caused by double gene deletion. These discoveries may guide future investigation of underlying mechanisms. We have also shown that a hybridized genetic network reconstructed from both temporal microarray data and literature is able to achieve a satisfactory prediction accuracy of the same quantitative phenotypes. Conclusions This case study illustrates the value of predicting quantitative phenotypes based on genetic network and provides a generic approach.
Prediction of Classroom Reverberation Time using Neural Network
Liyana Zainudin, Fathin; Kadir Mahamad, Abd; Saon, Sharifah; Nizam Yahya, Musli