The Fingerprint of Present and Past Rainfall on Soil Geochemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Amundson, R.; Owen, J.; Ewing, S.; Nishiizumi, K.; Finkel, R.; Chadwick, O.; Dietrich, W.

2007-12-01

Research conducted in many locations show that soil weathering rates vary with time and environmental conditions. Here, we assemble long-term (105 to 106 y) chronosequence studies of soil chemistry in sites varying in MAP from ~1 to ~4000 mm y-1 to examine how the rate and magnitude of chemical weathering varies with climate, particularly at the dry end of the spectrum. In humid, vegetated landscapes, soil chemical weathering generally releases an array of rock forming elements that are removed via leaching, causing a subsequent mass loss and volumetric collapse. The rate of this process is non-linear, with instantaneous weathering rates declining greatly with time. In general, the rates and magnitude (for a soil of a given age) of chemical weathering decline greatly with decreasing rainfall. At the arid/hyperarid boundary, where rainfall decreases to the point that biota are essentially absent, chemical weathering nearly ceases, retention of atmospheric solutes and dust increases, and soil chemistry becomes mainly inorganic. The rates of mass gain and volumetric expansion in extremely hyperarid regions is hypothesized to be linear, differing from the non- linearity of processes in more humid regions. While the "fingerprint" of rainfall on soil properties is greatly magnified with increasing soil age, ancient soils commonly bear the imprint of multiple climate changes. In humid regions, detecting these changes in soil chemistry is difficult, whereas an increase in aridity, and a shift from net mass loss to net mass gain, produces a unique geochemical signal, and additionally preserves the weathering signal that occurred during the earlier pluvial episode. In two ancient (Miocene) well-preserved landscapes along a modern (and ancient) rainfall gradient in the Atacama Desert, the geochemical signal of climate change is clearly evident. Paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that northern Chile was under a permanent El Nino-like condition until the late Pliocene, and

Validity and extension of the SCS-CN method for computing infiltration and rainfall-excess rates

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Singh, Vijay P.

2004-12-01

A criterion is developed for determining the validity of the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method. According to this criterion, the existing SCS-CN method is found to be applicable when the potential maximum retention, S, is less than or equal to twice the total rainfall amount. The criterion is tested using published data of two watersheds. Separating the steady infiltration from capillary infiltration, the method is extended for predicting infiltration and rainfall-excess rates. The extended SCS-CN method is tested using 55 sets of laboratory infiltration data on soils varying from Plainfield sand to Yolo light clay, and the computed and observed infiltration and rainfall-excess rates are found to be in good agreement.

Net savings and the Japanese long-term interest rate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, P.W.

2011-01-01

This article discusses why the interest rate on Japanese government bonds is so low in comparison with other industrialized countries with a better credit rating, after correcting for inflation differences. We find that the net savings surplus has kept the long-term interest rate low. Japanese

Temperature and rainfall are related to fertility rate after spring artificial insemination in small ruminants

Science.gov (United States)

Abecia, J. A.; Arrébola, F.; Macías, A.; Laviña, A.; González-Casquet, O.; Benítez, F.; Palacios, C.

2016-10-01

A total number of 1092 artificial inseminations (AIs) performed from March to May were documented over four consecutive years on 10 Payoya goat farms (36° N) and 19,392 AIs on 102 Rasa Aragonesa sheep farms (41° N) over 10 years. Mean, maximum, and minimum ambient temperatures, mean relative humidity, mean solar radiation, and total rainfall on each insemination day were recorded. Overall, fertility rates were 58 % in goats and 45 % in sheep. The fertility rates of the highest and lowest deciles of each of the meteorological variables indicated that temperature and rainfall had a significant effect on fertility in goats. Specifically, inseminations that were performed when mean (68 %), maximum (68 %), and minimum (66 %) temperatures were in the highest decile, and rainfall was in the lowest decile (59 %), had a significantly ( P goats and sheep.

Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Philip G; Cleveland, Cory C; Wieder, William R; Sullivan, Benjamin W; Doughty, Christopher E; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Townsend, Alan R

2017-06-01

Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short-term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer-term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate - C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate - C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The functional correlation between rainfall rate and extinction coefficient for frequencies from 3 to 10 GHz

Science.gov (United States)

Jameson, A. R.

1990-01-01

The relationship between the rainfall rate (R) obtained from radiometric brightness temperatures and the extinction coefficient (k sub e) is investigated by computing the values of k sub e over a wide range of rainfall rates, for frequencies from 3 to 25 GHz. The results show that the strength of the relation between the R and the k sub e values exhibits considerable variation for frequencies at this range. Practical suggestions are made concerning the selection of particular frequencies for rain measurements to minimize the error in R determinations.

The Economics of Zero-Rating and Net Neutrality

OpenAIRE

Somogyi, Robert

2016-01-01

This paper studies zero-rating, an emerging business practice consisting in a mobile internet service provider (ISP) excluding the data generated by certain content providers (CPs) from its consumers' monthly data cap. Being at odds with the principle of net neutrality, these arrangements have recently attracted regulatory scrutiny all over the word. I analyze zero-rating incentives of a monopolistic ISP facing a capacity constraint in a two-sided market where consumption provides utility for...

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James F Saracco

Full Text Available Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI] to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons, bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus, and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei. Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness; while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the

Modern Spatial Rainfall Rate is well Correlated with Coretop δ2Hdinosterol in the South Pacific Convergence Zone: A Tool for Quantitative Reconstructions of Rainfall Rate

Science.gov (United States)

Sear, D. A.; Maloney, A. E.; Nelson, D. B.; Sachs, J. P.; Hassall, J. D.; Langdon, P. G.; Prebble, M.; Richey, J. N.; Schabetsberger, R.; Sichrowsky, U.; Hope, G.

2015-12-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most prominent precipitation feature extending southeastward 3000 km from Papua New Guinea to French Polynesia. Determining how the SPCZ responded to climate variations before the instrumental record requires the use of indirect indicators of rainfall. The link between the hydrogen isotopic composition of fluxes of water though the hydrologic cycle, lake water, and molecular fossil 2H/1H ratios make hydrogen isotopes a promising tool for improving our understanding of this important climate feature. An analysis of coretop sediment from freshwater lakes in the SPCZ region indicates that there is a strong spatial relationship between δ2Hdinosterol and mean annual precipitation rate. The objectives of this research are to use 2H/1H ratios of the biomarker dinosterol to develop an empirical relationship between δ2Hdinosterol and modern environmental rainfall rates so that we may quantitatively reconstruct several aspects of the SPCZ's hydrological system during the late Holocene. The analysis includes lake sediment coretops from the Solomon Islands, Wallis Island, Vanuatu, Tahiti, Samoa, New Caledonia, and the Cook Islands. These islands span range of average modern precipitation rates from 3 to 7 mm/day and the coretop sediment δ2Hdinosterol values range from -240‰ to -320‰. Applying this regional coretop calibration to dated sediment cores reveals that the mean annual position and/or intensity of the SPCZ has not been static during the past 2000 years.

Influence of net freshwater supply on salinity in Florida Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Nuttle, William K.; Fourqurean, James W.; Cosby, Bernard J.; Zieman, Joseph C.; Robblee, Michael B.

2000-01-01

An annual water budget for Florida Bay, the large, seasonally hypersaline estuary in the Everglades National Park, was constructed using physically based models and long‐term (31 years) data on salinity, hydrology, and climate. Effects of seasonal and interannual variations of the net freshwater supply (runoff plus rainfall minus evaporation) on salinity variation within the bay were also examined. Particular attention was paid to the effects of runoff, which are the focus of ambitious plans to restore and conserve the Florida Bay ecosystem. From 1965 to 1995 the annual runoff from the Everglades into the bay was less than one tenth of the annual direct rainfall onto the bay, while estimated annual evaporation slightly exceeded annual rainfall. The average net freshwater supply to the bay over a year was thus approximately zero, and interannual variations in salinity appeared to be affected primarily by interannual fluctuations in rainfall. At the annual scale, runoff apparently had little effect on the bay as a whole during this period. On a seasonal basis, variations in rainfall, evaporation, and runoff were not in phase, and the net freshwater supply to the bay varied between positive and negative values, contributing to a strong seasonal pattern in salinity, especially in regions of the bay relatively isolated from exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Changes in runoff could have a greater effect on salinity in the bay if the seasonal patterns of rainfall and evaporation and the timing of the runoff are considered. One model was also used to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of salinity responses expected to result from changes in net freshwater supply. Simulations in which runoff was increased by a factor of 2 (but with no change in spatial pattern) indicated that increased runoff will lower salinity values in eastern Florida Bay, increase the variability of salinity in the South Region, but have little effect on salinity in the Central

Rates of convergence of Brezier net over triangles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yuyu.

1986-12-01

It is well known (Farin, 1979) that the sequence of Bezier nets f-circumflex n (x) associated with Bernstein-Bezier surface over a triangle converges to the surface uniformly as n goes to infinity. In this paper the precise rates of convergence are given. The pointwise convergence result and saturation theorem are presented. (author). 7 refs

A Preliminary Study on Rainfall Interception Loss and Water Yield Analysis on Arabica Coffee Plants in Central Aceh Regency, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Benara

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Rainfall interception loss from plants or trees can reduce a net rainfall as source of water yield. The amount of rainfall interception loss depends on kinds of plants and hydro-meteorological characteristics. Therefore, it is important to study rainfall interception loss such as from Arabica Coffee plantation which is as main agricultural commodity for Central Aceh Regency. In this study, rainfall interception loss from Arabica Coffee plants was studied in Kebet Village of Central Aceh Regency, Indonesia from January 20 to March 9, 2011. Arabica coffee plants used in this study was 15 years old, height of 1.5 m and canopy of 4.567 m2. Rainfall interception loss was determined based on water balance approach of daily rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow data. Empirical regression equation between rainfall interception loss and rainfall were adopted as a model to estimate rainfall interception loss from Arabica Coffee plantation, which the coefficient of correlation, r is 0.98. In water yield analysis, this formula was applied and founded that Arabica Coffee plants intercept 76% of annual rainfall or it leaved over annual net rainfall 24% of annual rainfall. Using this net rainfall, water yield produced from Paya Bener River which is the catchment area covered by Arabica Coffee plantation was analyzed in a planning of water supply project for water needs domestic of 3 sub-districts in Central Aceh Regency. Based on increasing population until year of 2025, the results showed that the water yield will be not enough from year of 2015. However, if the catchment area is covered by forest, the water yield is still enough until year of 2025

Interaction between the effects of evaporation rate and amount of simulated rainfall on development of the free-living stages of Haemonchus contortus.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Lauren J; Kahn, Lewis P; Walkden-Brown, Stephen W

2008-08-17

A factorial experiment (3 x 4 x 2 x 3) was conducted in programmable incubators to investigate interaction between the effects of rainfall amount, rainfall distribution and evaporation rate on development of Haemonchus contortus to L3. Sheep faeces containing H. contortus eggs were incubated on sterilised soil under variable temperatures typical of summer in the Northern Tablelands of NSW, Australia. Simulated rainfall was applied in 1 of 3 amounts (12, 24 or 32 mm) and 4 distributions (a single event on the day after deposition, or the same total amount split in 2, 3 or 4 equal events over 2, 3 or 4 days, respectively). Samples were incubated at either a Low or High rate of evaporation (Low: 2.1-3.4 mm/day and High: 3.8-6.1 mm/day), and faeces and soil were destructively sampled at 4, 7 and 14 days post-deposition. Recovery of L3 from the soil (extra-pellet L3) increased over time (up to 0.52% at day 14) and with each increment of rainfall (12 mm: evaporation rate (0.01%) compared with the Low evaporation rate (0.31%). All rainfall amounts yielded significantly different recoveries of L3 under Low evaporation rates but there was no difference between the 12 and 24 mm treatments under the High evaporation rate. The distribution of simulated rainfall did not significantly affect recovery of infective larvae. Faecal moisture content was positively associated with L3 recovery, as was the ratio of cumulative precipitation and cumulative evaporation (P/E), particularly when measured in the first 4 days post-deposition. The results show that evaporation rate plays a significant role in regulating the influence of rainfall amount on the success of L3 transmission.

Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution

Science.gov (United States)

Fraedrich, K.

2014-12-01

Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

Integrating a Linear Signal Model with Groundwater and Rainfall time-series on the Characteristic Identification of Groundwater Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Wen; Wang, Yetmen; Chang, Liang-Cheng

2017-04-01

Groundwater resources play a vital role on regional supply. To avoid irreversible environmental impact such as land subsidence, the characteristic identification of groundwater system is crucial before sustainable management of groundwater resource. This study proposes a signal process approach to identify the character of groundwater systems based on long-time hydrologic observations include groundwater level and rainfall. The study process contains two steps. First, a linear signal model (LSM) is constructed and calibrated to simulate the variation of underground hydrology based on the time series of groundwater levels and rainfall. The mass balance equation of the proposed LSM contains three major terms contain net rate of horizontal exchange, rate of rainfall recharge and rate of pumpage and four parameters are required to calibrate. Because reliable records of pumpage is rare, the time-variant groundwater amplitudes of daily frequency (P ) calculated by STFT are assumed as linear indicators of puamage instead of pumpage records. Time series obtained from 39 observation wells and 50 rainfall stations in and around the study area, Pintung Plain, are paired for model construction. Second, the well-calibrated parameters of the linear signal model can be used to interpret the characteristic of groundwater system. For example, the rainfall recharge coefficient (γ) means the transform ratio between rainfall intention and groundwater level raise. The area around the observation well with higher γ means that the saturated zone here is easily affected by rainfall events and the material of unsaturated zone might be gravel or coarse sand with high infiltration ratio. Considering the spatial distribution of γ, the values of γ decrease from the upstream to the downstream of major rivers and also are correlated to the spatial distribution of grain size of surface soil. Via the time-series of groundwater levels and rainfall, the well-calibrated parameters of LSM have

Net reclassification index at event rate: properties and relationships.

Science.gov (United States)

Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; D'Agostino, Ralph B

2017-12-10

The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an attractively simple summary measure quantifying improvement in performance because of addition of new risk marker(s) to a prediction model. Originally proposed for settings with well-established classification thresholds, it quickly extended into applications with no thresholds in common use. Here we aim to explore properties of the NRI at event rate. We express this NRI as a difference in performance measures for the new versus old model and show that the quantity underlying this difference is related to several global as well as decision analytic measures of model performance. It maximizes the relative utility (standardized net benefit) across all classification thresholds and can be viewed as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the distributions of risk among events and non-events. It can be expressed as a special case of the continuous NRI, measuring reclassification from the 'null' model with no predictors. It is also a criterion based on the value of information and quantifies the reduction in expected regret for a given regret function, casting the NRI at event rate as a measure of incremental reduction in expected regret. More generally, we find it informative to present plots of standardized net benefit/relative utility for the new versus old model across the domain of classification thresholds. Then, these plots can be summarized with their maximum values, and the increment in model performance can be described by the NRI at event rate. We provide theoretical examples and a clinical application on the evaluation of prognostic biomarkers for atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A soil moisture-rainfall feedback mechanism. 1. Theory and observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltahir, E.A.B.

1998-01-01

This paper presents a hypothesis regarding the fundamental role of soil moisture conditions in land-atmosphere interactions. We propose that wet soil moisture conditions over any large region should be associated with relatively large boundary layer moist static energy, which favors the occurrence of more rainfall. Since soil moisture conditions themselves reflect past occurrence of rainfall, the proposed hypothesis implies a positive feedback mechanism between soil moisture and rainfall. This mechanism is based on considerations of the energy balance at the land-atmosphere boundary, in contrast to similar mechanisms that were proposed in the past and that were based on the concepts of water balance and precipitation recycling. The control of soil moisture on surface albedo and Bowen ratio is the fundamental basis of the proposed soil moisture-rainfall feedback mechanism. The water content in the upper soil layer affects these two important properties of the land surface such that both variables decrease with any increase in the water content of the top soil layer. The direct effect of soil moisture on surface albedo implies that wet soil moisture conditions enhance net solar radiation. The direct effect of soil moisture on Bowen ratio dictates that wet soil moisture conditions would tend to enhance net terrestrial radiation at the surface through cooling of surface temperature, reduction of upwards emissions of terrestrial radiation, and simultaneous increase in atmospheric water vapor content and downwards flux of terrestrial radiation. Thus, under wet soil moisture conditions, both components of net radiation are enhanced, resulting in a larger total flux of heat from the surface into the boundary layer. This total flux represents the sum of the corresponding sensible and latent heat fluxes. Simultaneously, cooling of surface temperature should be associated with a smaller sensible heat flux and a smaller depth of the boundary layer

Leaching of indaziflam applied at two rates under different rainfall situations in Florida Candler soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Jhala, Amit J; Ramirez, Analiza H M; Singh, Megh

2012-03-01

Indaziflam {N-[(1R, 2S)-2,3-dihydro-2,6-dimethyl-1H-inden-1-yl]-6-[(1RS)-1fluoroethyl]-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine} is a new pre-emergence herbicide recently registered for a broad spectrum weed control in Florida citrus. Experiments were conducted to evaluate leaching of indaziflam applied at 73 and 145 g ai ha(-1) in Florida Candler soil under simulated rainfall of 5, 10, and 15 cm ha(-1). Indaziflam leached the least (12.6 ± 0.6 cm) when applied at 73 g ai ha(-1) under 5 cm ha(-1) rainfall. Indaziflam leached furthest (30.2 ± 0.9 cm) when applied at 145 g ai ha(-1) under 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall. The visual control ratings of a bio-indicator species ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) was 97% at 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall when indaziflam applied at 145 g ai ha(-1) in the 26 to 30 cm horizon indicating the maximum movement and activity of indaziflam. A dose response experiment was conducted to determine the sensitivity of ryegrass to various doses of indaziflam that confirmed that application of indaziflam at 29.20 g ai ha(-1) was sufficient to prevent germination of ryegrass. There was no mortality of ryegrass plants beyond the 30 cm and the biomass of ryegrass was comparable with untreated control indicating that indaziflam did not leach beyond this distance even under 15 cm ha(-1) rainfall.

In-situ real time measurements of net erosion rates of copper during hydrogen plasma exposure

Science.gov (United States)

Kesler, Leigh; Wright, Graham; Peterson, Ethan; Whyte, Dennis

2013-10-01

In order to properly understand the dynamics of net erosion/deposition in fusion reactors, such as tokamaks, a diagnostic measuring the real time rates of net erosion/deposition during plasma exposure is necessary. The DIONISOS experiment produces real time measurements of net erosion/deposition by using Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy (RBS) ion beam analysis simultaneously with plasma exposure from a helicon plasma source. This in-situ method improves on ex-situ weight loss measurements by allowing measurement of possible synergistic effects of high ion implantation rates and net erosion rate and by giving a real time response to changes in plasma parameters. Previous work has validated this new technique for measuring copper (Cu) erosion from helium (He) plasma ion bombardment. This technique is now extended to measure copper erosion due to deuterium and hydrogen plasma ion exposure. Targets used were a 1.5 μm Cu layer on an aluminum substrate. Cu layer thickness is tracked in real time using 1.2 MeV proton RBS. Measured erosion rates will be compared to results from literature and He erosion rates. Supported by US DoE award DE-SC00-02060.

Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

2015-12-01

Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

Aboveground net primary productivity and rainfall use efficiency of grassland on three soils after two years of exposure to a subambient to superambient CO2 gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Fay, P. A.; Polley, H. W.; Jin, V. L.

2008-12-01

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (CA) have increased by about 100 μL L-1 over the last 250 years to ~ 380 μL L-1, the highest values in the last half-million years, and CA is expected to continue to increase to greater than 500 μL L-1 by 2100. CO2 enrichment has been shown to affect many ecosystem processes, but experiments typically examine only two or a few levels of CA, and are typically constrained to one soil type. However, soil hydrologic properties differ across the landscape. Therefore, variation in the impacts of increasing CA on ecosystem function on different soil types must be understood to model and forecast ecosystem function under future CA and climate scenarios. Here we evaluate the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of grassland plots receiving equal rainfall inputs (from irrigation) and exposed to a continuous gradient (250 to 500 μL L-1) of CA in the Lysimeter CO2 Gradient Experiment in central Texas, USA. Sixty intact soil monoliths (1 m2 x 1.5 m deep) taken from three soil types (Austin silty clay, Bastrop sandy loam, Houston clay) and planted to seven native tallgrass prairie grasses and forbs were exposed to the CA gradient beginning in 2006. Aboveground net primary productivity was assessed by end of season (November) harvest of each species in each monolith. Total ANPP of all species was 35 to 50% greater on Bastrop and Houston soils compared to Austin soils in both years (p Solidago canadensis strongly increased with increasing CA, with S. nutans responding more strongly on Bastrop and Houston soils (p = 0.053), indicating that increased greater rainfall use efficiency at high CA on these productive soils was associated with increased dominance by these species. In contrast, the grass Bouteloua curtipendula decreased in biomass with increasing CA, especially on Austin and Bastrop soils. The least productive species were the grass Tridens albescens, the legume Desmanthus illinoensis, and the forb Salvia azurea, and these showed

Influence of Subjectivity in Geological Mapping on the Net Penetration Rate Prediction for a Hard Rock TBM

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Yongbeom; Macias, Francisco Javier; Jakobsen, Pål Drevland; Bruland, Amund

2018-05-01

The net penetration rate of hard rock tunnel boring machines (TBM) is influenced by rock mass degree of fracturing. This influence is taken into account in the NTNU prediction model by the rock mass fracturing factor ( k s). k s is evaluated by geological mapping, the measurement of the orientation of fractures and the spacing of fractures and fracture type. Geological mapping is a subjective procedure. Mapping results can therefore contain considerable uncertainty. The mapping data of a tunnel mapped by three researchers were compared, and the influence of the variation in geological mapping was estimated to assess the influence of subjectivity in geological mapping. This study compares predicted net penetration rates and actual net penetration rates for TBM tunneling (from field data) and suggests mapping methods that can reduce the error related to subjectivity. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) variation of mapping data between individuals; (2) effect of observed variation on uncertainty in predicted net penetration rates; (3) influence of mapping methods on the difference between predicted and actual net penetration rate.

[Effects of rainfall intensity on rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on Loess slope land].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yi; Shao, Ming'an

2006-12-01

With simulation test, this paper studied the patterns of rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on typical Loess slope land, and analyzed the quantitative relations between the infiltration and redistribution and the movement of soil water and mass, with rainfall intensity as the main affecting factor. The results showed that rainfall intensity had significant effects on the rainfall infiltration and water redistribution in soil, and the microcosmic movement of soil water. The larger the rainfall intensity, the deeper the wetting front of rainfall infiltration and redistribution was, and the wetting front of soil water redistribution had a slower increase velocity than that of rainfall infiltration. The power function of the wetting front with time, and also with rainfall intensity, was fitted well. There was also a quantitative relation between the wetting front of rainfall redistribution and the duration of rainfall. The larger the rainfall intensity, the higher the initial and steady infiltration rates were, and the cumulative infiltration increased faster with time. Moreover, the larger the rainfall intensity, the smaller the wetting front difference was at the top and the end of the slope. With the larger rainfall intensity, both the difference of soil water content and its descending trend between soil layers became more obvious during the redistribution process on slope land.

Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

2014-01-01

that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

Net capital flows to and the real exchange rate of Western Balkan countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabrisch Hubert

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper uses Granger causality tests to assess the linkages between changes in the real exchange rate and net capital inflows using the example of Western Balkan countries, which have suffered from low competitiveness and external imbalances for many years. The real exchange rate is a measure of a country’s price competitiveness, and the paper uses two concepts: relative unit labour cost and relative inflation differential. The sample consists of six Western Balkan countries for the period 1996-2012, relative to the European Union (EU. The main finding is that changes in the net capital flows precede changes in relative unit labour costs and not vice versa. Also, there is evidence that net capital flows affect the inflation differential of countries, although to a less discernible extent. This suggests that the increasing divergence in the unit labour cost between the EU and Western Balkan countries up to the global financial crisis was at least partly the result of net capital inflows. The paper adds to the ongoing debate on improving cost competitiveness through wage restrictions as the main vehicle to avert the accumulation of current account imbalances. It shows the importance of changes in the exchange rate regime, reform of the interaction between the financial and the real sector, and financial supervision and structural change.

The wildgeographer avatar shows how to measure soil erosion rates by means of a rainfall simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Cerdà, Artemi; González Pelayo, Óscar; Pereira, Paulo; Novara, Agata; Iserloh, Thomas; Prosdocimi, Massimo

2015-04-01

This contribution to the immersed worlds wish to develop the avatar that will teach the students and other scientists how to develop measurements of soil erosion, surface runoff and wetting fronts by means of simulated rainfall experiments. Rainfall simulation is a well established and knows methodology to measure the soil erosion rates and soil hydrology under controlled conditions (Cerdà 1998a; Cerdà, 1998b; Cerdà and Jurgensen, 2011; Dunkerley, 2012; Iserloh et al., 2012; Iserloh et al., 2013; Ziadat and Taimeh, 2013; Butzen et al., 2014). However, is a method that requires a long training and expertise to avoid mismanagement and mistaken. To use and avatar can help in the teaching of the technique and the dissemination of the findings. This contribution will show to other avatars how to develop an experiment with simulated rainfall and will help to take the right decision in the design of the experiments. Following the main parts of the experiments and measurements the Wildgeographer avatar must develop: 1. Determine the objectives and decide which rainfall intensity and distribution, and which plot size to be used. Choose between a laboratory or a field rainfall simulation. 2. Design of the rainfall simulator to achieve the objectives: type of rainfall simulator (sprayer or drop former) and calibrate. 3. The experiments are carried out. 4. The results are show. Acknowledgements To the "Ministerio de Economía and Competitividad" of Spanish Government for finance the POSTFIRE project (CGL2013- 47862-C2-1-R). The research projects GL2008-02879/BTE, LEDDRA 243857 and PREVENTING AND REMEDIATING DEGRADATION OF SOILS IN EUROPE THROUGH LAND CARE (RECARE)FP7-ENV-2013- supported this research. References Butzen, V., Seeger, M., Wirtz, S., Huemann, M., Mueller, C., Casper, M., Ries, J. B. 2014. Quantification of Hortonian overland flow generation and soil erosion in a Central European low mountain range using rainfall experiments. Catena, 113, 202-212. Cerdà, A

Nitrogen transformations in response to temperature and rainfall manipulation in oak savanna: A global change experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Wellman, R. L.; Boutton, T. W.; Tjoelker, M. G.; Volder, A.; Briske, D. D.

2013-12-01

nitrification (1.581 mg NO2-/NO3- -N/ kg soil/day) were in juniper monocultures during fall and spring in redistributed rainfall treatments. Lowest rates of ammonification (0.002 mg NH4+ -N/ kg soil/day) occurred under grass during fall and winter in redistributed rainfall plots, while lowest rates of nitrification (-0.016 mg NO2-/NO3- -N/ kg soil/day) were in juniper-grass mixtures during fall and winter in redistributed rainfall plots. Losses of N through leaching were highest in the same treatment combinations that had high rates of nitrification. Results indicate that while rainfall redistribution interacted strongly with other experimental treatments to influence rates of N-transformations, warming had little effect. These changes in rates of N-transformations and leaching losses in response to global change drivers may have important implications for net primary production, soil fertility, carbon storage, trace gas fluxes, water quality, interspecific interactions, and vegetation dynamics in the oak savanna region of North America.

The Influence of Herbivory on the net rate of Increase of Gypsy Moth Abundance: A Modeling Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

 Harry T.  Valentine

1983-01-01

A differential equation model of gypsy moth abundance, average larval dry weight, and food abundance was used to analyze the effects of changes in foliar chemistry on the net per capita rate of increase in a gypsy moth population. If relative consumption rate per larva is unaffected by herbivory, a reduction in the nutritional value of foliage reduces the net rate of...

Size and growth rate differences of larval Baltic sprat Sprattus sprattus collected with bongo and MIK nets.

Science.gov (United States)

Fey, D P

2015-01-01

The effect of sampling with bongo (0·6 m diameter frame with 500 µm mesh) and Methot Isaac Kidd (MIK) (2 m diameter frame with 2 mm mesh finished with 500 µm codend) nets on standard length (LS ) range and growth rate differences was tested for larval Sprattus sprattus (n = 906, LS range: 7·0-34·5 mm) collected during four cruises in the summer months of 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010 in the southern Baltic Sea. Although the minimum size of larvae collected with the bongo and MIK nets was similar in each cruise (from c. 7 to 9 mm), the MIK nets permitted collecting larger specimens (up to c. 34 mm) than the bongo nets did (up to c. 27 mm). The growth rates of larvae collected with the bongo and MIK nets (specimens of the same size range were compared for three cruises) were not statistically different (mean = 0·55 mm day(-1) , n = 788, LS range: 7·0-27·4 mm), which means the material collected with these two nets can be combined and growth rate results between them were compared. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

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W. R. Ismail

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

2015-03-01

The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Net Metering and Market Feedback Loops: Exploring the Impact of Retail Rate Design on Distributed PV Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Darghouth, Naïm R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-01-13

The substantial increase in deployment of customer-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States has been driven by a combination of steeply declining costs, financing innovations, and supportive policies. Among those supportive policies is net metering, which in most states effectively allows customers to receive compensation for distributed PV generation at the full retail electricity price. The current design of retail electricity rates and the presence of net metering have elicited concerns that the possible under-recovery of fixed utility costs from PV system owners may lead to a feedback loop of increasing retail prices that accelerate PV adoption and further rate increases. However, a separate and opposing feedback loop could offset this effect: increased PV deployment may lead to a shift in the timing of peak-period electricity prices that could reduce the bill savings received under net metering where time-varying retail electricity rates are used, thereby dampening further PV adoption. In this paper, we examine the impacts of these two competing feedback dynamics on U.S. distributed PV deployment through 2050 for both residential and commercial customers, across states. Our results indicate that, at the aggregate national level, the two feedback effects nearly offset one another and therefore produce a modest net effect, although their magnitude and direction vary by customer segment and by state. We also model aggregate PV deployment trends under various rate designs and net-metering rules, accounting for feedback dynamics. Our results demonstrate that future adoption of distributed PV is highly sensitive to retail rate structures. Whereas flat, time-invariant rates with net metering lead to higher aggregate national deployment levels than the current mix of rate structures (+5% in 2050), rate structures with higher monthly fixed customer charges or PV compensation at levels lower than the full retail rate can dramatically erode aggregate customer

Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Richards, Cristi L; Vroom, Peter S; Price, Nichole N; Schils, Tom; Young, Charles W; Smith, Jennifer; Johnson, Maggie D; Brainard, Russell E

2015-01-01

This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2) yr(-1)) of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU) plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years) of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA) percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons makes CCA

Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernardo Vargas-Ángel

Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2 yr(-1 of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons

Mixing the Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.; Romano, N.

2012-04-01

The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS-CN is a simple and valuable approach to estimate the total stream-flow volume generated by a storm rainfall, but it was developed to be used with daily rainfall data. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method so as to provide estimation of sub-daily incremental rainfall excess. For a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model. The proposed procedure was evaluated by analyzing 100 rainfall-runoff events observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears an encouraging tool for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, a better agreement with observed hydrographs than that of the classic SCS-CN method.

Spatial Interpolation of Rainfall Erosivity Using Artificial Neural Networks for Southern Brazil Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michel Castro Moreira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Water erosion is the process of disaggregation and transport of sediments, and rainfall erosivity is a numerical value that expresses the erosive capacity of rain. The scarcity of information on rainfall erosivity makes it difficult or impossible to use to estimate losses occasioned by the erosive process. The objective of this study was to develop Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs for spatial interpolation of the monthly and annual values of rainfall erosivity at any location in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, and a software that enables the use of these networks in a simple and fast manner. This experiment used 103 rainfall stations in Rio Grande do Sul and their surrounding area to generate synthetic rainfall series on the software ClimaBR 2.0. Rainfall erosivity was determined by summing the values of the EI30 and KE >25 indexes, considering two methodologies for obtaining the kinetic energy of rainfall. With these values of rainfall erosivity and latitude, longitude, and altitude of the stations, the ANNs were trained and tested for spatializations of rainfall erosivity. To facilitate the use of the ANNs, a computer program was generated, called netErosividade RS, which makes feasible the use of ANNs to estimate the values of rainfall erosivity for any location in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

The effect of net foreign assets on saving rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben David Nissim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Observing empirical data we find that many countries try to delay the decision of increasing saving rate in order to avoid a decrease of the living standards. However the delay leads a deterioration of countries financial stability. We present a simple theoretical model that connects between countries' saving rate and their net foreign assets. Using cross section data set of 135 countries in 2010 we estimated the econometric relation between saving rate in 2010 as dependent variable and two explanatory variables: the current account in 2010 and the aggregated current account during 1980-2010. Our findings show that industrial countries in a bad financial state tend to decrease their saving rate as external debt is larger causing to deterioration in external debt while countries with good financial state tend to increase their saving rate and the tendency increase as financial state becomes better. Only in countries with a very large external debt saving rate tends to grow. The results point that gross foreign debt will keep increasing and will worsen world financial state causing increased risk of getting into a world crisis.

Radar rainfall image repair techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen M. Wesson

2004-01-01

Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

Mobilizing local safety nets for enhanced adaptive capacity to ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

22 avr. 2016 ... In Zimbabwe, the increased frequency of drought, flash floods, and unpredictable rainfall has added to recurrent food deficits for poor households who depend on rainfed farming on nutrient poor soils. This brief explores how the erosion of Zunde raMambo — a traditional community safety net mechanism ...

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

Science.gov (United States)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

STUDY OF RAINFALL RATES AND EROSIVE PROCESSES AT THE URBAN AREA OF SÃO LUÍS – MA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio José Teixeira Guerra

2005-05-01

Full Text Available The study of the rain rates is here highlighted, in order to understand the mechanisms that generate the starting point of the erosive processes. The precipitation varies spatially not only in local and regional levels, due to mechanisms that generate rains, but also in short distances, due to the control of local variations, such as winds and constructions. In this way, the precipitations should be measured in different points of the study area, depending on the interest of the study and scale of analysis.The erosive process caused by rainfall covers almost the whole terrestrial surface, especially in tropical areas where the total rainfall is higher than in other regions of the planet. Besides that, the rain only falls on specific seasons in several areas, which worsens the erosion. The process tends to accelerate as the deforestation for wood exploitation and/or agricultural production takes place, once the soils become unprotected without the vegetal cover, so that the rains affect the surface of the grounds directly (GUERRA, 1999.This work presents the results of the monitoring of erosive processes along more than three years of studies at the urban area of São Luís City, relating rainfall rates to gullies evolution, an important instrument for the control and recovery of large-scale erosive processes.

[Infiltration characteristics of soil water on loess slope land under intermittent and repetitive rainfall conditions].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yi; Shao, Ming-An

2008-07-01

Based on the experiments of controlled intermittent and repetitive rainfall on slope land, the infiltration and distribution characteristics of soil water on loess slope land were studied. The results showed that under the condition of intermittent rainfall, the cumulative runoff during two rainfall events increased linearly with time, and the wetting front also increased with time. In the interval of the two rainfall events, the wetting front increased slowly, and the infiltration rate was smaller on steeper slope than on flat surface. During the second rainfall event, there was an obvious decreasing trend of infiltration rate with time. The cumulative infiltration on 15 degrees slope land was larger than that of 25 degrees slope land, being 178 mm and 88 mm, respectively. Under the condition of repetitive rainfall, the initial infiltration rate during each rainfall event was relatively large, and during the first rainfall, both the infiltration rate and the cumulative infiltration at various stages were larger than those during the other three rainfall events. However, after the first rainfall, there were no obvious differences in the infiltration rate among the next three rainfall events. The more the rainfall event, the deeper the wetting front advanced.

Data filtering and expected muon and neutrino event rates in the KM3NeT neutrino telescope

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shanidze, Rezo [ECAP, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erwin-Rommel-Str.1, 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Collaboration: ANTARES-KM3NeT-Erlangen-Collaboration

2011-07-01

KM3NeT is a future Mediterranean deep sea neutrino telescope with an instrumented volume of several cubic kilometres. The neutrino and muon events in KM3NeT will be reconstructed from the signals collected from the telescope's photo detectors. However, in the deep sea the dominant source of photon signals are the decays of K40 nuclei and bioluminescence. The selection of neutrino and muon events requires the implementation of fast and efficient data filtering algorithms for the reduction of accidental background event rates. Possible data filtering and triggering schemes for the KM3NeT neutrino telescope and expected muon and neutrino event rates are discussed.

Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Estimates for Drought and Flood Monitoring in Mozambique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolien Toté

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET Rainfall Estimate (RFE v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012. This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates for drought and flood monitoring in Mozambique

Science.gov (United States)

Tote, Carolien; Patricio, Domingos; Boogaard, Hendrik; van der Wijngaart, Raymond; Tarnavsky, Elena; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

Trends in readmission rates for safety net hospitals and non-safety net hospitals in the era of the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program: a retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from 2008 to 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Salerno, Amy M; Horwitz, Leora I; Kwon, Ji Young; Herrin, Jeph; Grady, Jacqueline N; Lin, Zhenqiu; Ross, Joseph S; Bernheim, Susannah M

2017-07-13

To compare trends in readmission rates among safety net and non-safety net hospitals under the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP). A retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from January 2008 to June 2015. We examined 3254 US hospitals eligible for penalties under the HRRP, categorised as safety net or non-safety net hospitals based on the hospital's proportion of patients with low socioeconomic status. Admissions for Medicare fee-for-service patients, age ≥65 years, discharged alive, who had a valid five-digit zip code and did not have a principal discharge diagnosis of cancer or psychiatric illness were included, for a total of 52 516 213 index admissions. Mean hospital-level, all-condition, 30-day risk-adjusted standardised unplanned readmission rate, measured quarterly, along with quarterly rate of change, and an interrupted time series examining: April-June 2010, after HRRP was passed, and October-December 2012, after HRRP penalties were implemented. 58.0% (SD 15.3) of safety net hospitals and 17.1% (SD 10.4) of non-safety net hospitals' patients were in the lowest quartile of socioeconomic status. The mean safety net hospital standardised readmission rate declined from 17.0% (SD 3.7) to 13.6% (SD 3.6), whereas the mean non-safety net hospital declined from 15.4% (SD 3.0) to 12.7% (SD 2.5). The absolute difference in rates between safety net and non-safety net hospitals declined from 1.6% (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9) to 0.9% (0.7 to 1.2). The quarterly decline in standardised readmission rates was 0.03 percentage points (95% CI 0.03 to 0.02, preadmission rates for safety net hospitals have decreased more rapidly than those for non-safety net hospitals. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The impact of rate design and net metering on the bill savings from distributed PV for residential customers in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darghouth, Naim R.; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan

2011-01-01

Net metering has become a widespread mechanism in the U.S. for supporting customer adoption of distributed photovoltaics (PV), but has faced challenges as PV installations grow to a larger share of generation in a number of states. This paper examines the value of the bill savings that customers receive under net metering, and the associated role of retail rate design, based on a sample of approximately two hundred residential customers of California's two largest electric utilities. We find that the bill savings per kWh of PV electricity generated varies by more than a factor of four across the customers in the sample, which is largely attributable to the inclining block structure of the utilities' residential retail rates. We also compare the bill savings under net metering to that received under three potential alternative compensation mechanisms, based on California's Market Price Referent (MPR). We find that net metering provides significantly greater bill savings than a full MPR-based feed-in tariff, but only modestly greater savings than alternative mechanisms under which hourly or monthly net excess generation is compensated at the MPR rate. - Highlights: → We examine the value of bill savings under net metering to PV owners in California. → Bill savings per kWh of PV generation varies by a factor of four with net metering. The variation is attributable to rate design, the unique inclining block structure. → The median value of bill savings is reduced by 40-67% with MPR feed-in tariff. → The median value of bill savings is reduced by 6-12% with hourly netting.

Net sputtering rate due to hot ions in a Ne-Xe discharge gas bombarding an MgO layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, S.; Tamakoshi, T.; Ikeda, M.; Mikami, Y.; Suzuki, K.

2011-01-01

An analytical method is developed for determining net sputtering rate for an MgO layer under hot ions with low energy ( h i , above a threshold energy of sputtering, E th,i , multiplied by a yield coefficient. The threshold energy of sputtering is determined from dissociation energy required to remove an atom from MgO surface multiplied by an energy-transfer coefficient. The re-deposition rate of the sputtered atoms is calculated by a diffusion simulation using a hybridized probabilistic and analytical method. These calculation methods are combined to analyze the net sputtering rate. Maximum net sputtering rate due to the hot neon ions increases above the partial pressure of 4% xenon as E h Ne becomes higher and decreases near the partial pressure of 20% xenon as ion flux of neon decreases. The dependence due to the hot neon ions on partial pressure and applied voltage agrees well with experimental results, but the dependence due to the hot xenon ions deviates considerably. This result shows that the net sputtering rate is dominated by the hot neon ions. Maximum E h Ne (E h Ne,max = 5.3 - 10.3 eV) is lower than E th,Ne (19.5 eV) for the MgO layer; therefore, weak sputtering due to the hot neon ions takes place. One hot neon ion sputters each magnesium and each oxygen atom on the surface and distorts around a vacancy. The ratio of the maximum net sputtering rate is approximately determined by number of the ions at E h i,max multiplied by an exponential factor of -E th,i /E h i,max .

Annual and Seasonal Mean Net Evaporation Rates of the Red Sea Water during Jan 1958 - Dec 2007

OpenAIRE

Nassir, Sahbaldeen Abdulaziz

2012-01-01

Data set including sea level, temperature, salinity, and current from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) is used in this study to estimate the mean net annually and seasonally evaporation rates. Then wind data is used to examine its impact on the evaporation. This work calculated the seasonal and annual evaporation rates based on assumption of that there is no net mass transport (balanced). Hence, the difference in the transport supposed to be equal to the water that has eva...

Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

How temporal patterns in rainfall determine the geomorphology and carbon fluxes of tropical peatlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Cobb, Alexander R; Hoyt, Alison M; Gandois, Laure; Eri, Jangarun; Dommain, René; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Kai, Fuu Ming; Haji Su'ut, Nur Salihah; Harvey, Charles F

2017-06-27

Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage.

How temporal patterns in rainfall determine the geomorphology and carbon fluxes of tropical peatlands

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyt, Alison M.; Gandois, Laure; Eri, Jangarun; Dommain, René; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Kai, Fuu Ming; Haji Su’ut, Nur Salihah; Harvey, Charles F.

2017-01-01

Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage. PMID:28607068

Bacterial Flux by Net Precipitation from the Phyllosphere to the Forest Floor.

Science.gov (United States)

Pound, P.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Moore, L. D.; Bittar, T.

2016-12-01

Transport pathways of microbes between ecosystem spheres (atmosphere, phyllosphere, and pedosphere) represent major fluxes in nutrient cycles and have the potential to significantly affect microbial ecological processes. We quantified a previously unexamined microbial flux from the phyllosphere to the pedosphere during rainfall and found it to be substantial. Net rainfall bacterial fluxes for throughfall and stemflow were quantified using flow cytometry and a quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR) assay for a Quercus virginiana (Mill., southern live oak) forest with heavy epiphyte cover of Tillandsia usneoides (L., Spanish moss) and Pleopeltis polypodiodes (L., resurrection fern) in coastal Georgia (Southeast USA). Total net precipitation flux of bacteria was 15 quadrillion cells year-1 ha-1, which (assuming a bacterial cell mass of 1 pg) is approximately 15 kg of bacterial biomass supply per year. Stemflow generation was low in this stand (rarely exceeded 10 L storm-1) yet still delivered half the annual net precipitation flux due to high bacterial concentration. The role of this previously unquantified bacterial flux in the forest floor has also been under studied, yet it may be significant by contributing functional community members (if living) or labile lysates (if dead).

Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

2014-01-01

examples to show how reproductive timing Tc and level R0 are shaped by stage dynamics (individual trait changes), selection on the trait, and parent-offspring phenotypic correlation. We also show how population structure can affect dispersion in reproduction among ages and stages. These macroscopic...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...

Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

OpenAIRE

Gollier, Christian

2010-01-01

Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

The role of non-rainfall water on physiological activation in desert biological soil crusts

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Jiaoli; Peng, Chengrong; Li, Hua; Li, Shuangshuang; Huang, Shun; Hu, Yao; Zhang, Jinli; Li, Dunhai

2018-01-01

Non-rainfall water (NRW, e.g. fog and dew), in addition to rainfall and snowfall, are considered important water inputs to drylands. At the same time, biological soil crusts (BSCs) are important components of drylands. However, little information is available regarding the effect of NRW inputs on BSC activation. In this study, the effects of NRW on physiological activation in three BSC successional stages, including the cyanobacteria crust stage (Crust-C), moss colonization stage (Crust-CM), and moss crust stage (Crust-M), were studied in situ. Results suggest NRW inputs hydrated and activated physiological activity (Fv/Fm, carbon exchange, and nitrogen fixation) in BSCs but led to a negative carbon balance and low rates of nitrogen fixation in BSCs. One effective NRW event could hydrate BSCs for 7 h. Following simulated rainfall, the physiological activities recovered within 3 h, and net carbon gain occurred until 3 h after hydration, whereas NRW-induced physiological recovery processes were slower and exhibited lower activities, leading to a negative carbon balance. There were significant positive correlations between NRW amounts and the recovered values of Fv/Fm in all the three BSC stages (p < .001). The thresholds for Fv/Fm activation decreased with BSC succession, and the annual effective NRW events increased with BSC succession, with values of 29.8, 89.2, and 110.7 in Crust-C, Crust-CM and Crust-M, respectively. The results suggest that moss crust and moss-cyanobacteria crust use NRW to prolong metabolic activity and reduce drought stress more efficiently than cyanobacteria crusts. Therefore, these results suggest that BSCs utilize NRW to sustain life while growth and biomass accumulation require precipitation (rainfall) events over a certain threshold.

The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Spracklen, D. V.; Garcia-Carreras, L.

2015-11-01

We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

Spatial variation in tuber depletion by swans explained by differences in net intake rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nolet, BA; Langevoord, O; Bevan, RM; Engelaar, KR; Klaassen, M; Mulder, RJW

We tested whether the spatial variation in resource depletion by Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus) foraging on belowground tubers of sage pondweed (Potnmogeton pectinatus) was caused by differences in net energy intake rates. The variation in giving up densities within the confines of one lake was

Commercial application of rainfall simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Loch, Rob J.

2010-05-01

to rain; and • Regular calibration of all equipment. In general, typical errors when rainfall simulation is carried out by inexperienced researchers include: • Failure to accurately measure rainfall rates (the most common error); • Inappropriate initial conditions, including wetting treatments; • Use of inappropriately small plots - relating to our concern at the erosion processes considered be those of genuine field relevance; • Inappropriate rainfall kinetic energies; and • Failure to observe critical processes operating on the study plots, such as saturation excess or the presence of impeding layers at shallow depths. Landloch regularly uses erodibility data to design stable batter profiles for minesite waste dumps. Subsequent monitoring of designed dumps has confirmed that modelled erosion rates are consistent with those subsequently measured under field conditions.

Some observations of the variations in natural gamma radiation due to rainfall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minato, S.

1980-01-01

Results of observations of variations in natural gamma-radiation flux densities due to rainfall are presented and discussed in relation to rate of rainfall. Variations of fluences with amounts of rainfall are also described. It is concluded that the frequency distribution of the ratio of the fluence to the amount of rainfall has a trend to be lognormal

Capture efficiency and injury rates of band-tailed pigeons using whoosh nets

Science.gov (United States)

Coxen, Christopher L.; Collins, Daniel P.; Carleton, Scott A.

2018-01-01

Catching ground feeding birds has typically been accomplished through small, walk-in funnel-style traps. This approach is limited because it requires a bird to find its way into the trap, is biased toward less wary birds, and does not allow targeted trapping of individual birds. As part of a large study on Band-tailed Pigeons (Patagioenas fasciata) in New Mexico, we needed a trapping method that would allow more control over the number of birds we could trap at one time, when a trap was deployed, and target trapping of specific individuals. We adopted a relatively novel trapping technique used primarily for shorebirds, whoosh nets, to trap Band-tailed Pigeons at 3 different sites where birds were being fed by local landowners. During 2013–2015, whoosh nets were used to trap 702 Band-tailed Pigeons at 3 different locations in New Mexico. We captured 12.54 ± 8.19 pigeons per shot over 56 capture events across 3 locations (range: 2–39). Some superficial injuries occurred using this technique and typically involved damage to the primary and secondary wing coverts. In 2013, 24% of captured birds had an injury of this nature, but after modifying the net speed, injury rates in 2014 and 2015 dropped to 8% and 7%, respectively. Recaptured previously injured birds showed new feather growth within 2 weeks and showed no signs of injury after 4 weeks. Whoosh nets proved to be a highly effective solution for trapping large numbers of pigeons at baited sites. These systems are easily transported, quickly deployed, and easily adapted to a variety of site conditions. 

Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Wang-chun

2013-04-01

-configurable manner. Verification indicates that the service achieves a detection rate of 76% and a false alarm rate of 26% in the first 30 minute forecast. The skill decreases as the forecast range extends, with the detection rate lowered to 40% and false alarm rate increased to 63% for the two hour forecast. A number of factors affect the accuracy of the forecast, notably the anomalous propagation, the sensitivity and vertical coverage of the radar, as well as the growth and decay of the rain echoes. The service has been gaining popularity rapidly since launch, and has already registered over 12,000 users who have opted for notifications. The successful launch of the location-based rainfall nowcast service in Hong Kong and favourable verification results reveal the high practicality of such services.

Bias adjustment and advection interpolation of long-term high resolution radar rainfall series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2014-01-01

It is generally acknowledged that in order to apply radar rainfall data for hydrological proposes adjustment against ground observations are crucial. Traditionally, radar reflectivity is transformed into rainfall rates applying a fixed reflectivity – rainfall rate relationship even though...... this is known to depend on the changing drop size distribution of the specific rain. This creates a transient bias between the radar rainfall and the ground observations due to seasonal changes of the drop size distribution as well as other atmospheric effects and effects related to the radar observational...

Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for groundwater recharge estimation in west coastal South Africa. ... the data from Oudebosch with different rainfall and groundwater abstraction inputs are simulated to explore individual effects on water levels as well as recharge rate estimated on a daily basis.

Parameter sensitivity analysis of the mixed Green-Ampt/Curve-Number method for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Romano, N.; Petroselli, A.; Grimaldi, S.

2012-04-01

With the aim of combining the practical advantages of the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model, we have developed a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt). The basic concept is that, for a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model so as to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method. In a previous contribution, the proposed mixed procedure was evaluated on 100 observed events showing encouraging results. In this study, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to further explore the feasibility of applying the CN4GA tool in small ungauged catchments. The proposed mixed procedure constrains the GA model with boundary and initial conditions so that the GA soil hydraulic parameters are expected to be insensitive toward the net hyetograph peak. To verify and evaluate this behaviour, synthetic design hyetograph and synthetic rainfall time series are selected and used in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results are encouraging and confirm that the parameter variability makes the proposed method an appropriate tool for hydrologic predictions in ungauged catchments. Keywords: SCS-CN method, Green-Ampt method, rainfall excess, ungauged basins, design hydrograph, rainfall-runoff modelling.

Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold F.; Negri, Andrew

2002-01-01

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and water of far eastern Siberian Larch (Larix cajanderii on permafrost

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Dolman

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Observations of the net ecosystem exchange of water and CO2 were made during two seasons in 2000 and 2001 above a Larch forest in Far East Siberia (Yakutsk. The measurements were obtained by eddy correlation. There is a very sharply pronounced growing season of 100 days when the forest is leaved. Maximum half hourly uptake rates are 18 µmol m-2 s-1; maximum respiration rates are 5 µmol m-2 s-1. Net annual sequestration of carbon was estimated at 160 gCm-2 in 2001. Applying no correction for low friction velocities added 60 g C m-2. The net carbon exchange of the forest was extremely sensitive to small changes in weather that may switch the forest easily from a sink to a source, even in summer. June was the month with highest uptake in 2001. The average evaporation rate of the forest approached 1.46 mm day-1 during the growing season, with peak values of 3 mm day-1 with an estimated annual evaporation of 213 mm, closely approaching the average annual rainfall amount. 2001 was a drier year than 2000 and this is reflected in lower evaporation rates in 2001 than in 2000. The surface conductance of the forest shows a marked response to increasing atmospheric humidity deficits. This affects the CO2 uptake and evaporation in a different manner, with the CO2 uptake being more affected. There appears to be no change in the relation between surface conductance and net ecosystem uptake normalized by the atmospheric humidity deficit at the monthly time scale. The response to atmospheric humidity deficit is an efficient mechanism to prevent severe water loss during the short intense growing season. The associated cost to the sequestration of carbon may be another explanation for the slow growth of these forests in this environment.

Woody Vegetation Die off and Regeneration in Response to Rainfall Variability in the West African Sahel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Brandt

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The greening in the Senegalese Sahel has been linked to an increase in net primary productivity, with significant long-term trends being closely related to the woody strata. This study investigates woody plant growth and mortality within greening areas in the pastoral areas of Senegal, and how these dynamics are linked to species diversity, climate, soil and human management. We analyse woody cover dynamics by means of multi-temporal and multi-scale Earth Observation, satellite based rainfall and in situ data sets covering the period 1994 to 2015. We find that favourable conditions (forest reserves, low human population density, sufficient rainfall led to a rapid growth of Combretaceae and Balanites aegyptiaca between 2000 and 2013 with an average increase of 4% woody cover. However, the increasing dominance and low drought resistance of drought prone species bears the risk of substantial woody cover losses following drought years. This was observed in 2014–2015, with a die off of Guiera senegalensis in most places of the study area. We show that woody cover and woody cover trends are closely related to mean annual rainfall, but no clear relationship with rainfall trends was found over the entire study period. The observed spatial and temporal variation contrasts with the simplified labels of “greening” or “degradation”. While in principal a low woody plant diversity negatively impacts regional resilience, the Sahelian system is showing signs of resilience at decadal time scales through widespread increases in woody cover and high regeneration rates after periodic droughts. We have reaffirmed that the woody cover in Sahel responds to its inherent climatic variability and does not follow a linear trend.

Woody vegetation die off and regeneration in response to rainfall variability in the west African Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Martin; Tappan, G. Gray; Aziz Diouf, Abdoul; Beye, Gora; Mbow, Cheikh; Fensholt, Rasmus

2017-01-01

The greening in the Senegalese Sahel has been linked to an increase in net primary productivity, with significant long-term trends being closely related to the woody strata. This study investigates woody plant growth and mortality within greening areas in the pastoral areas of Senegal, and how these dynamics are linked to species diversity, climate, soil and human management. We analyse woody cover dynamics by means of multi-temporal and multi-scale Earth Observation, satellite based rainfall and in situ data sets covering the period 1994 to 2015. We find that favourable conditions (forest reserves, low human population density, sufficient rainfall) led to a rapid growth of Combretaceae and Balanites aegyptiaca between 2000 and 2013 with an average increase of 4% woody cover. However, the increasing dominance and low drought resistance of drought prone species bears the risk of substantial woody cover losses following drought years. This was observed in 2014–2015, with a die off of Guiera senegalensis in most places of the study area. We show that woody cover and woody cover trends are closely related to mean annual rainfall, but no clear relationship with rainfall trends was found over the entire study period. The observed spatial and temporal variation contrasts with the simplified labels of “greening” or “degradation”. While in principal a low woody plant diversity negatively impacts regional resilience, the Sahelian system is showing signs of resilience at decadal time scales through widespread increases in woody cover and high regeneration rates after periodic droughts. We have reaffirmed that the woody cover in Sahel responds to its inherent climatic variability and does not follow a linear trend.

Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Witter, J.V.

1984-01-01

Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

Efficacy of PermaNet® 3.0 and PermaNet® 2.0 nets against laboratory-reared and wild Anopheles gambiae sensu lato populations in northern Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Kweka, Eliningaya J; Lyaruu, Lucile J; Mahande, Aneth M

2017-01-18

Mosquitoes have developed resistance against pyrethroids, the only class of insecticides approved for use on long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). The present study sought to evaluate the efficacy of the pyrethroid synergist PermaNet® 3.0 LLIN versus the pyrethroid-only PermaNet® 2.0 LLIN, in an East African hut design in Lower Moshi, northern Tanzania. In this setting, resistance to pyrethroid insecticides has been identified in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes. Standard World Health Organization bioefficacy evaluations were conducted in both laboratory and experimental huts. Experimental hut evaluations were conducted in an area where there was presence of a population of highly pyrethroid-resistant An. arabiensis mosquitoes. All nets used were subjected to cone bioassays and then to experimental hut trials. Mosquito mortality, blood-feeding inhibition and personal protection rate were compared between untreated nets, unwashed LLINs and LLINs that were washed 20 times. Both washed and unwashed PermaNet® 2.0 and PermaNet® 3.0 LLINs had knockdown and mortality rates of 100% against a susceptible strain of An. gambiae sensu stricto. The adjusted mortality rate of the wild mosquito population after use of the unwashed PermaNet® 3.0 and PermaNet® 2.0 nets was found to be higher than after use of the washed PermaNet® 2.0 and PermaNet® 3.0 nets. Given the increasing incidence of pyrethroid resistance in An. gambiae mosquitoes in Tanzania, we recommend that consideration is given to its distribution in areas with pyrethroid-resistant malaria vectors within the framework of a national insecticide-resistance management plan.

Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

2015-01-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based...

Forest biomass, productivity and carbon cycling along a rainfall gradient in West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Sam; Adu-Bredu, Stephen; Duah-Gyamfi, Akwasi; Addo-Danso, Shalom D; Ibrahim, Forzia; Mbou, Armel T; de Grandcourt, Agnès; Valentini, Riccardo; Nicolini, Giacomo; Djagbletey, Gloria; Owusu-Afriyie, Kennedy; Gvozdevaite, Agne; Oliveras, Imma; Ruiz-Jaen, Maria C; Malhi, Yadvinder

2018-02-01

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is one of the most important parameters in describing the functioning of any ecosystem and yet it arguably remains a poorly quantified and understood component of carbon cycling in tropical forests, especially outside of the Americas. We provide the first comprehensive analysis of NPP and its carbon allocation to woody, canopy and root growth components at contrasting lowland West African forests spanning a rainfall gradient. Using a standardized methodology to study evergreen (EF), semi-deciduous (SDF), dry forests (DF) and woody savanna (WS), we find that (i) climate is more closely related with above and belowground C stocks than with NPP (ii) total NPP is highest in the SDF site, then the EF followed by the DF and WS and that (iii) different forest types have distinct carbon allocation patterns whereby SDF allocate in excess of 50% to canopy production and the DF and WS sites allocate 40%-50% to woody production. Furthermore, we find that (iv) compared with canopy and root growth rates the woody growth rate of these forests is a poor proxy for their overall productivity and that (v) residence time is the primary driver in the productivity-allocation-turnover chain for the observed spatial differences in woody, leaf and root biomass across the rainfall gradient. Through a systematic assessment of forest productivity we demonstrate the importance of directly measuring the main components of above and belowground NPP and encourage the establishment of more permanent carbon intensive monitoring plots across the tropics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svoboda Vojtěch

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

Apply data mining to analyze the rainfall of landslide

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Lee Chou-Yuan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Taiwan is listed as extremely dangerous country which suffers from many disasters. The disasters from the landslide result in the loss of agricultural productions, life and property and so on. Many researchers concern about the disasters of landslide, but there are few discussions for the threshold of rainfall for landslide. In this paper, data mining is applied to establish rules and the threshold of rainfall for landslide in Huafan University, Taiwan. These used variables include rainfall, insolation, insolation rate, averaged humidity, averaged temperature, wind speed, and the tilt of inclinometer. The inclinometer is an important instrument for measuring tilt, elevation or depression of an object with respect to gravity. There are 26 inclinometers in Talun mountain area of Huafan University. In this research, the used data were collected from January 2008 to July 2014. In the proposed approach, the regression analysis is used to predict rainfall first. Then, decision tree is used to obtain decision rules and set the threshold of rainfall for landslide. The output of this approach can provide more information for understanding the change of rainfall. The threshold of rainfall could also provide useful information to maintain the security for Huafan University.

Predicted disappearance of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain due to changes in rainfall patterns.

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Xin-Ju Xiao

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In the past century, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.74°C and extreme weather events have become prevalent. Recent studies have shown that species have shifted from high-elevation areas to low ones because the rise in temperature has increased rainfall. These outcomes challenge the existing hypothesis about the responses of species to climate change. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: With the use of data on the biological characteristics and reproductive behavior of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain, Guangdong, China, trends in the population size of the species were predicted based on several factors. The response of C. obcordata to climate change was verified by integrating it with analytical findings on meteorological data and an artificially simulated environment of water change. The results showed that C. obcordata can grow only in waterlogged streams. The species can produce fruit with many seeds by insect pollination; however, very few seeds can burgeon to become seedlings, with most of those seedlings not maturing into the sexually reproductive phase, and grass plants will die after reproduction. The current population's age pyramid is kettle-shaped; it has a Deevey type I survival curve; and its net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of increase, as well as finite rate of increase are all very low. The population used in the artificial simulation perished due to seasonal drought. CONCLUSIONS: The change in rainfall patterns caused by climate warming has altered the water environment of C. obcordata in Luofu Mountain, thereby restricting seed burgeoning as well as seedling growth and shortening the life span of the plant. The growth rate of the C. obcordata population is in descending order, and models of population trend predict that the population in Luofu Mountain will disappear in 23 years.

Rainfall simulation experiments in the southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Polyakov, Viktor; Stone, Jeffry; Holifield Collins, Chandra; Nearing, Mark A.; Paige, Ginger; Buono, Jared; Gomez-Pond, Rae-Landa

2018-01-01

This dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semiarid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30 % of the plots, simulations were conducted up to five times during the decade of study. The rainfall was generated using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots. Simulation sites included brush and grassland areas with various degrees of disturbance by grazing, wildfire, or brush removal. This dataset advances our understanding of basic hydrological and biological processes that drive soil erosion on arid rangelands. It can be used to estimate runoff, infiltration, and erosion rates at a variety of ecological sites in the Southwestern USA. The inclusion of wildfire and brush treatment locations combined with long-term observations makes it important for studying vegetation recovery, ecological transitions, and the effect of management. It is also a valuable resource for erosion model parameterization and validation. The dataset is available from the National Agricultural Library at https://data.nal.usda.gov/search/type/dataset (DOI: https://doi.org/10.15482/USDA.ADC/1358583).

Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

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Tingting Shi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

Reclaimed mineland curve number response to temporal distribution of rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, R.C.; Agouridis, C.T.; Vingralek, P.T.; Fogle, A.W.

2010-01-01

The curve number (CN) method is a common technique to estimate runoff volume, and it is widely used in coal mining operations such as those in the Appalachian region of Kentucky. However, very little CN data are available for watersheds disturbed by surface mining and then reclaimed using traditional techniques. Furthermore, as the CN method does not readily account for variations in infiltration rates due to varying rainfall distributions, the selection of a single CN value to encompass all temporal rainfall distributions could lead engineers to substantially under- or over-size water detention structures used in mining operations or other land uses such as development. Using rainfall and runoff data from a surface coal mine located in the Cumberland Plateau of eastern Kentucky, CNs were computed for conventionally reclaimed lands. The effects of temporal rainfall distributions on CNs was also examined by classifying storms as intense, steady, multi-interval intense, or multi-interval steady. Results indicate that CNs for such reclaimed lands ranged from 62 to 94 with a mean value of 85. Temporal rainfall distributions were also shown to significantly affect CN values with intense storms having significantly higher CNs than multi-interval storms. These results indicate that a period of recovery is present between rainfall bursts of a multi-interval storm that allows depressional storage and infiltration rates to rebound. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.

The Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Mechanisms of Shallow Slope Failure

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Muhammad Suradi

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (Fi towards minimum factor of safety (Fmin. The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern.

[Effects of plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate on net global warming potential in semiarid rain-fed maize cropland].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jian Can; Wang, Ze Lin; Yue, Shan Chao; Li, Shi Qing

2018-04-01

A one-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of plastic film mulching (FM) and nitrogen application rates applied to rain-fed maize fields on net global warming potential (Net GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) at the Changwu Agricultural and Ecological Experimental Station. Both GWP and GHGI were affected by the plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate. Under the FM treatment, maize yield ranged from 1643 to 16699 kg·hm -2 , the net GWP (CO 2 -eq) ranged from 595 to 4376 kg·hm -2 ·a -1 , and the GHGI (CO 2 -eq) ranged from 213 to 358 kg·t -1 . The grain yield of maize, net GWP and GHGI for the UM (no mulching) treatment were 956 to 8821 kg·hm -2 , 342 to 4004 kg·hm -2 ·a -1 and 204 to 520 kg·t -1 , respectively. The results suggested that plastic film mulching could simultaneously improve grain yield and decrease GHGI in rain-fed cropland along with nitrogen fertilizer of 250 kg·hm -2 .

Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

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S. J. Wood

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation

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Camuñas-Mesa, Luis A.; Domínguez-Cordero, Yaisel L.; Linares-Barranco, Alejandro; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Linares-Barranco, Bernabé

2018-01-01

Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS) in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network. PMID:29515349

A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation

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Luis A. Camuñas-Mesa

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network.

A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Camuñas-Mesa, Luis A; Domínguez-Cordero, Yaisel L; Linares-Barranco, Alejandro; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Linares-Barranco, Bernabé

2018-01-01

Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS) in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network.

NetSig

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Horn, Heiko; Lawrence, Michael S; Chouinard, Candace R

2018-01-01

Methods that integrate molecular network information and tumor genome data could complement gene-based statistical tests to identify likely new cancer genes; but such approaches are challenging to validate at scale, and their predictive value remains unclear. We developed a robust statistic (Net......Sig) that integrates protein interaction networks with data from 4,742 tumor exomes. NetSig can accurately classify known driver genes in 60% of tested tumor types and predicts 62 new driver candidates. Using a quantitative experimental framework to determine in vivo tumorigenic potential in mice, we found that Net......Sig candidates induce tumors at rates that are comparable to those of known oncogenes and are ten-fold higher than those of random genes. By reanalyzing nine tumor-inducing NetSig candidates in 242 patients with oncogene-negative lung adenocarcinomas, we find that two (AKT2 and TFDP2) are significantly amplified...

Drivers of inter-annual variability in Net Ecosystem Exchange in a semi-arid savanna ecosystem, South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Archibald, SA

2009-01-01

Full Text Available and filling gaps in eddy-covariance data in semi-arid systems were developed. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in these systems occurs as pulses associated with rainfall events, a pattern not well-represented in current standard gap-filling procedures developed...

Mass distribution of free insecticide-treated nets do not interfere with continuous net distribution in Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Eze, Ikenna C; Kramer, Karen; Msengwa, Amina; Mandike, Renata; Lengeler, Christian

2014-05-27

To protect the most vulnerable groups from malaria (pregnant women and infants) the Tanzanian Government introduced a subsidy (voucher) scheme in 2004, on the basis of a public-private partnership. These vouchers are provided to pregnant women at their first antenatal care visit and mothers of infants at first vaccination. The vouchers are redeemed at registered retailers for a long-lasting insecticidal net against the payment of a modest top-up price. The present work analysed a large body of data from the Tanzanian National Voucher Scheme, focusing on interactions with concurrent mass distribution campaigns of free nets. In an ecologic study involving all regions of Tanzania, voucher redemption data for the period 2007-2011, as well as data on potential determinants of voucher redemption were analysed. The four outcome variables were: pregnant woman and infant voucher redemption rates, use of treated bed nets by all household members and by under- five children. Each of the outcomes was regressed with selected determinants, using a generalized estimating equation model and accounting for regional data clustering. There was a consistent improvement in voucher redemption rates over the selected time period, with rates >80% in 2011. The major determinants of redemption rates were the top-up price paid by the voucher beneficiary, the retailer- clinic ratio, and socio-economic status. Improved redemption rates after 2009 were most likely due to reduced top-up prices (following a change in policy). Redemption rates were not affected by two major free net distribution campaigns. During this period, there was a consistent improvement in net use across all the regions, with rates of up to 75% in 2011. The key components of the National Treated Nets Programme (NATNETS) seem to work harmoniously, leading to a high level of net use in the entire population. This calls for the continuation of this effort in Tanzania and for emulation by other countries with endemic malaria.

Rainfall simulation in education

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

2016-04-01

Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

Rainfall: State of the Science

Science.gov (United States)

Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Ceilometer-based Rainfall Rate estimates in the framework of VORTEX-SE campaign: A discussion

Science.gov (United States)

Barragan, Ruben; Rocadenbosch, Francesc; Waldinger, Joseph; Frasier, Stephen; Turner, Dave; Dawson, Daniel; Tanamachi, Robin

2017-04-01

During Spring 2016 the first season of the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment-Southeast (VORTEX-SE) was conducted in the Huntsville, AL environs. Foci of VORTEX-SE include the characterization of the tornadic environments specific to the Southeast US as well as societal response to forecasts and warnings. Among several experiments, a research team from Purdue University and from the University of Massachusetts Amherst deployed a mobile S-band Frequency-Modulated Continuous-Wave (FMCW) radar and a co-located Vaisala CL31 ceilometer for a period of eight weeks near Belle Mina, AL. Portable disdrometers (DSDs) were also deployed in the same area by Purdue University, occasionally co-located with the radar and lidar. The NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory also deployed the Collaborative Lower Atmosphere Mobile Profiling System (CLAMPS) consisting of a Doppler lidar, a microwave radiometer, and an infrared spectrometer. The purpose of these profiling instruments was to characterize the atmospheric boundary layer evolution over the course of the experiment. In this paper we focus on the lidar-based retrieval of rainfall rate (RR) and its limitations using observations from intensive observation periods during the experiment: 31 March and 29 April 2016. Departing from Lewandowski et al., 2009, the RR was estimated by the Vaisala CL31 ceilometer applying the slope method (Kunz and Leeuw, 1993) to invert the extinction caused by the rain. Extinction retrievals are fitted against RR estimates from the disdrometer in order to derive a correlation model that allows us to estimate the RR from the ceilometer in similar situations without a disdrometer permanently deployed. The problem of extinction retrieval is also studied from the perspective of Klett-Fernald-Sasano's (KFS) lidar inversion algorithm (Klett, 1981; 1985), which requires the assumption of an aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratio (the so-called lidar ratio) and calibration in a

Forecasting the heavy rainfall during Himalayan flooding—June 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anumeha Dube

2014-08-01

Verification of the synoptic features in forecasts of the two models suggests that NCUM accurately captures the circulation features as compared to T574. Further verification of this event is carried out based on the contiguous rain area (CRA technique. CRA verification is used in computing the total mean square error (MSE which is based on displacement, volume and pattern errors. This verification technique also, confirms the better skill of NCUM over T574 in terms of forecast peak rainfall amounts, volume and average rain rate, lower MSE and root mean square error (RMSE as well as having higher hit rates and lower misses and false alarm rates for different rainfall thresholds from Day 1 to Day 5 forecasts.

Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Maofeng

Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

Which resilience of the continental rainfall-runoff chain?

Science.gov (United States)

Fraedrich, Klaus

2015-04-01

Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain are extremely variable over a wide range of time and space scales. A key societal question is the multiscale resilience of this chain. We argue that the adequate framework to tackle this question can be obtained by combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts: (i) Rainfall exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics) and extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law as simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process representing vertical moisture fluxes. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function (Gumbel) not unlike physical systems at criticality, while short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. (iii) Soil moisture, interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, provides an equation of state to the surface energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's framework for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. (iv) Vegetation-greenness (NDVI), included as an active tracer extends Budyko's eco-hydrologic state space analysis, supplements the common geographical presentations, and it may be linked to a minimalist biodiversity concept. (v) Finally, attributions of change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes are determined by eco-hydrologic state space trajectories using surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation). Risk-estimates (by GCM-emulators) and possible policy advice mechanisms enter the outlook.

Darfur: rainfall and conflict

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

2008-01-01

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

Darfur: rainfall and conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

2008-07-01

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972 2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa.

The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Climate predictability and variability studies over South Africa typically focus on the summer rainfall region and to a lesser extent on the winter rainfall region. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa, a narrow strip located along the Cape...

Linking landscape structure and rainfall runoff behaviour in a thermodynamic optimality context

Science.gov (United States)

Zehe, Erwin; Ehret, Uwe; Blume, Theresa; Kleidon, Axel; Scherer, Ulrike; Westhoff, Martijn

2015-04-01

gradients, and thus a faster relaxation back towards local thermodynamic equilibrium. Thermodynamic optimality principles allow for a priory optimization of the resistance field at a given gradient, not in the sense how they exactly look like but in the sense how they function with respect to export and dissipation of free energy associated with rainfall runoff processes. Based on this framework we explored the possibility of independent predictions of rainfall runoff, in the sense that the a-priory optimum model structures should match independent observations. We found that spatially organized patterns of soils and macropores observed in two distinctly different landscapes are in close accordance with thermodynamic optima expressed either by minimized relaxation times towards local thermodynamic equilibrium in cohesive soils or as steady state in the potential energy of soil water in non-cohesive soils. Predicted rainfall runoff based on the two optimized model structures was in both catchments in acceptable accordance with independent discharge observations. However, the nature of these optima suggests there might be two distinctly different thermodynamically optimal regimes of rainfall runoff behaviour. In the capillary- or c--regime, free energy dynamics of soil water is dominated by changes in its capillary binding energy, which is the case for cohesive soils. Soil wetting during rainfall in the c-regime implies pushing the system back towards LTE, especially after long dry spells. Dead ended macropores (roots, worm burrows which end in the soil matrix) act as dissipative wetting structures by enlarging water flows against steep gradients in soil water potential after long dry spells. This implies accelerated depletion of these gradients and faster relaxation back towards LTE during rainfall runoff. In the c-regime several optimum macropore densities with respect to maximization of net reduction of free energy exist. This is because the governing equation is a second

Single interval longwave radiation scheme based on the net exchanged rate decomposition with bracketing

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Geleyn, J.- F.; Mašek, Jan; Brožková, Radmila; Kuma, P.; Degrauwe, D.; Hello, G.; Pristov, N.

2017-01-01

Roč. 143, č. 704 (2017), s. 1313-1335 ISSN 0035-9009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : numerical weather prediction * climate models * clouds * parameterization * atmospheres * formulation * absorption * scattering * accurate * database * longwave radiative transfer * broadband approach * idealized optical paths * net exchanged rate decomposition * bracketing * selective intermittency Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.444, year: 2016

Rainfall measurement based on in-situ storm drainage flow sensors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahm, Malte; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

2017-01-01

Data for adjustment of weather radar rainfall estimations are mostly obtained from rain gauge observations. However, the density of rain gauges is often very low. Yet in many urban catchments, runoff sensors are typically available which can measure the rainfall indirectly. By utilising these sen......Data for adjustment of weather radar rainfall estimations are mostly obtained from rain gauge observations. However, the density of rain gauges is often very low. Yet in many urban catchments, runoff sensors are typically available which can measure the rainfall indirectly. By utilising...... these sensors, it may be possible to improve the ground rainfall estimate, and thereby improve the quantitative precipitation estimation from weather radars for urban drainage applications. To test the hypothesis, this paper presents a rainfall measurement method based on flow rate measurements from well......-defined urban surfaces. This principle was used to design a runoff measurement system in a parking structure in Aalborg, Denmark, where it was evaluated against rain gauges. The measurements show that runoff measurements from well-defined urban surfaces perform just as well as rain gauges. This opens up...

Rainfall Variability, Adaptation through Irrigation, and Sustainable Management of Water Resources in India

Science.gov (United States)

Fishman, R.

2013-12-01

Most studies of the impact of climate change on agriculture account for shifts in temperature and total seasonal (or monthly) precipitation. However, climate change is also projected to increase intra-seasonal precipitation variability in many parts of the world. To provide first estimates of the potential impact, I paired daily rainfall and rice yield data during the period 1970-2004, from across India, where about a fifth of the world's rice is produced, and yields have always been highly dependent on the erratic monsoon rainfall. Multivariate regression models revealed that the number of rainless days during the wet season has a statistically robust negative impact on rice yields that exceeds that of total seasonal rainfall. Moreover, a simulation of climate change impacts found that the negative impact of the projected increase in the number of rainless days will trump the positive impact of the projected increase in total precipitation, and reverse the net precipitation effect on rice production from positive (+3%) to negative (-10%). The results also indicate that higher irrigation coverage is correlated with reduced sensitivity to rainfall variability, suggesting the expansion of irrigation can effectively adapt agriculture to these climate change impacts. However, taking into account limitations on water resource availability in India, I calculate that under current irrigation practices, sustainable use of water can mitigate less than a tenth of the impact.

Rainfall interception from a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei

Science.gov (United States)

Dykes, A. P.

1997-12-01

Results from a programme of throughfall measurements in a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei, northwest Borneo, indicate that interception losses amount to 18% of the gross incident rainfall. The high annual rainfall experienced by the study area results in annual interception losses of around 800 mm, which may result in total annual evapotranspiration losses significantly higher than in other rainforest locations. An improved version of Gash's analytical interception model is tested on the available data using assumed values for the "forest" parameters, and is found to predict interception losses extremely well. The model predictions are based on an estimated evaporation rate during rainfall of 0.71 mm h -1. This is significantly higher than has been reported in other tropical studies. It is concluded that these results are distinctive when compared with previous results from rainforests, and that further, detailed work is required to establish whether the enhanced evaporation rate is due to advective effects associated with the maritime setting of the study area.

Comparison of four machine learning algorithms for their applicability in satellite-based optical rainfall retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Hanna; Kühnlein, Meike; Appelhans, Tim; Nauss, Thomas

2016-03-01

Machine learning (ML) algorithms have successfully been demonstrated to be valuable tools in satellite-based rainfall retrievals which show the practicability of using ML algorithms when faced with high dimensional and complex data. Moreover, recent developments in parallel computing with ML present new possibilities for training and prediction speed and therefore make their usage in real-time systems feasible. This study compares four ML algorithms - random forests (RF), neural networks (NNET), averaged neural networks (AVNNET) and support vector machines (SVM) - for rainfall area detection and rainfall rate assignment using MSG SEVIRI data over Germany. Satellite-based proxies for cloud top height, cloud top temperature, cloud phase and cloud water path serve as predictor variables. The results indicate an overestimation of rainfall area delineation regardless of the ML algorithm (averaged bias = 1.8) but a high probability of detection ranging from 81% (SVM) to 85% (NNET). On a 24-hour basis, the performance of the rainfall rate assignment yielded R2 values between 0.39 (SVM) and 0.44 (AVNNET). Though the differences in the algorithms' performance were rather small, NNET and AVNNET were identified as the most suitable algorithms. On average, they demonstrated the best performance in rainfall area delineation as well as in rainfall rate assignment. NNET's computational speed is an additional advantage in work with large datasets such as in remote sensing based rainfall retrievals. However, since no single algorithm performed considerably better than the others we conclude that further research in providing suitable predictors for rainfall is of greater necessity than an optimization through the choice of the ML algorithm.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Relationships between High Impact Tropical Rainfall Events and Environmental Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

2017-12-01

While rainfall increases as moisture and vertical motion increase, relationships between regional environmental conditions and rainfall event characteristics remain more uncertain. Of particular importance are long duration, heavy rain rate, and significant accumulation events that contribute sizable fractions of overall precipitation over short time periods. This study seeks to establish relationships between observed rainfall event properties and environmental conditions. Event duration, rain rate, and rainfall accumulation are derived using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 3-hourly, 0.25° resolution rainfall retrieval from 2002-2013 between 10°N and 10°S. Events are accumulated into 2.5° grid boxes and matched to monthly mean total column water vapor (TCWV) and 500-hPa vertical motion (omega) in each 2.5° grid box, retrieved from ERA-interim reanalysis. Only months with greater than 3 mm/day rainfall are included to ensure sufficient sampling. 90th and 99th percentile oceanic events last more than 20% longer and have rain rates more than 20% lower than those over land for a given TCWV-omega condition. Event duration and accumulation are more sensitive to omega than TCWV over oceans, but more sensitive to TCWV than omega over land, suggesting system size, propagation speed, and/or forcing mechanism differences for land and ocean regions. Sensitivities of duration, rain rate, and accumulation to TCWV and omega increase with increasing event extremity. For 3B42 and ERA-Interim relationships, the 90th percentile oceanic event accumulation increases by 0.93 mm for every 1 Pa/min change in rising motion, but this increases to 3.7 mm for every 1 Pa/min for the 99th percentile. Over land, the 90th percentile event accumulation increases by 0.55 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV, whereas the 99th percentile increases by 0.90 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV. These changes in event accumulation are highly correlated with changes in event

Assessment of satellite rainfall products over the Andean plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Satgé, Frédéric; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Gosset, Marielle; Molina, Jorge; Hernan Yuque Lima, Wilson; Pillco Zolá, Ramiro; Timouk, Franck; Garnier, Jérémie

2016-01-01

Nine satellite rainfall estimations (SREs) were evaluated for the first time over the South American Andean plateau watershed by comparison with rain gauge data acquired between 2005 and 2007. The comparisons were carried out at the annual, monthly and daily time steps. All SREs reproduce the salient pattern of the annual rain field, with a marked north-south gradient and a lighter east-west gradient. However, the intensity of the gradient differs among SREs: it is well marked in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA-3B42), Precipitation Estimation from remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products, and it is smoothed out in the Climate prediction center MORPHing (CMORPH) products. Another interesting difference among products is the contrast in rainfall amounts between the water surfaces (Lake Titicaca) and the surrounding land. Some products (TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and GSMaP) show a contradictory rainfall deficit over Lake Titicaca, which may be due to the emissivity contrast between the lake and the surrounding lands and warm rain cloud processes. An analysis differentiating coastal Lake Titicaca from inland pixels confirmed this trend. The raw or Real Time (RT) products have strong biases over the study region. These biases are strongly positive for PERSIANN (above 90%), moderately positive for TMPA-3B42 (28%), strongly negative for CMORPH (- 42%) and moderately negative for GSMaP (- 18%). The biases are associated with a deformation of the rain rate frequency distribution: GSMaP underestimates the proportion of rainfall events for all rain rates; CMORPH overestimates the proportion of rain rates below 2 mm day- 1; and the other products tend to overestimate the proportion of moderate to high rain rates. These biases are greatly reduced by the gauge adjustment in the TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and CMORPH products, whereas a

Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

Science.gov (United States)

Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

2017-04-01

In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a

Radar-based rainfall estimation: Improving Z/R relations through comparison of drop size distributions, rainfall rates and radar reflectivity patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Neuper, Malte; Ehret, Uwe

2014-05-01

The relation between the measured radar reflectivity factor Z and surface rainfall intensity R - the Z/R relation - is profoundly complex, so that in general one speaks about radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) rather than exact measurement. Like in Plato's Allegory of the Cave, what we observe in the end is only the 'shadow' of the true rainfall field through a very small backscatter of an electromagnetic signal emitted by the radar, which we hope has been actually reflected by hydrometeors. The meteorological relevant and valuable Information is gained only indirectly by more or less justified assumptions. One of these assumptions concerns the drop size distribution, through which the rain intensity is finally associated with the measured radar reflectivity factor Z. The real drop size distribution is however subject to large spatial and temporal variability, and consequently so is the true Z/R relation. Better knowledge of the true spatio-temporal Z/R structure therefore has the potential to improve radar-based QPE compared to the common practice of applying a single or a few standard Z/R relations. To this end, we use observations from six laser-optic disdrometers, two vertically pointing micro rain radars, 205 rain gauges, one rawindsonde station and two C-band Doppler radars installed or operated in and near the Attert catchment (Luxembourg). The C-band radars and the rawindsonde station are operated by the Belgian and German Weather Services, the rain gauge data was partly provided by the French, Dutch, Belgian, German Weather Services and the Ministry of Agriculture of Luxembourg and the other equipment was installed as part of the interdisciplinary DFG research project CAOS (Catchment as Organized Systems). With the various data sets correlation analyzes were executed. In order to get a notion on the different appearance of the reflectivity patterns in the radar image, first of all various simple distribution indices (for example the

Testing the Effect of Cropping Practices on Soil Erosion Rates - Application of Field Rainfall Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Dostál, Tomáš; Zumr, David; Krása, Josef; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk

2017-04-01

C factor, the protection effect of the vegetation cover, is a key parameter which is introduced in the basic empirical soil erosion relationships (e.g. USLE). The C factor values for various crops in various grow stages are usually estimated based on the catalogue values. As these values often do not fit to the observed data from the plot experiments or do not represent actually grown crops, we decided to validate and extend the database. We present a methodology and primary results of tens of the field rainfall simulation experiments conducted on several agricultural crops with different BBCH. The rainfall simulations were done with the mobile field rainfall simulator of the Czech Technical University. The tested plots of the size 2 x 8,7 m were repeatedly exposed to the artificial rainfalls with intensity of 60 mm/h and duration of 30 to 60 minutes. The experiments were always performed twice on a bare soil and twice on the vegetated plots (to mimic dry and wet initial soil conditions). The tests were done on several slopes in the Czech Republic, the soils were mostly Cambisols with various organic matter content and stoniness. Based on the results we will be able to correct and validate the C factor values for the currently most widely grown crops in the conditions of the Central Europe. The presentation is funded by Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic (research project QJ1530181) and an internal student CTU grant.

Uncertainties in the Value of Bill Savings from Behind-the-Meter, Residential Photovoltaic Systems: The Roles of Electricity Market Conditions, Retail Rate Design, and Net Metering

Science.gov (United States)

Darghouth, Naim Richard

Net metering has become a widespread policy mechanism in the U.S. for supporting customer adoption of distributed photovoltaics (PV), allowing customers with PV systems to reduce their electric bills by offsetting their consumption with PV generation, independent of the timing of the generation relative to consumption. Although net metering is one of the principal drivers for the residential PV market in the U.S., the academic literature on this policy has been sparse and this dissertation contributes to this emerging body of literature. This dissertation explores the linkages between the availability of net metering, wholesale electricity market conditions, retail rates, and the residential bill savings from behind-the-meter PV systems. First, I examine the value of the bill savings that customers receive under net metering and alternatives to net metering, and the associated role of retail rate design, based on current rates and a sample of approximately two hundred residential customers of California's two largest electric utilities. I find that the bill savings per kWh of PV electricity generated varies greatly, largely attributable to the increasing block structure of the California utilities' residential retail rates. I also find that net metering provides significantly greater bill savings than alternative compensation mechanisms based on avoided costs. However, retail electricity rates may shift as wholesale electricity market conditions change. I then investigate a potential change in market conditions -- increased solar PV penetrations -- on wholesale prices in the short-term based on the merit-order effect. This demonstrates the potential price effects of changes in market conditions, but also points to a number of methodological shortcomings of this method, motivating my usage of a long-term capacity investment and economic dispatch model to examine wholesale price effects of various wholesale market scenarios in the subsequent analysis. By developing

Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

Science.gov (United States)

Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2017-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

Infiltration and Runoff Measurements on Steep Burned Hillslopes Using a Rainfall Simulator with Variable Rain Intensities

Science.gov (United States)

Kinner, David A.; Moody, John A.

2008-01-01

Multiple rainfall intensities were used in rainfall-simulation experiments designed to investigate the infiltration and runoff from 1-square-meter plots on burned hillslopes covered by an ash layer of varying thickness. The 1-square-meter plots were on north- and south-facing hillslopes in an area burned by the Overland fire northwest of Boulder near Jamestown on the Front Range of Colorado. A single-nozzle, wide-angle, multi-intensity rain simulator was developed to investigate the infiltration and runoff on steep (30- to 40-percent gradient) burned hillslopes covered with ash. The simulated rainfall was evaluated for spatial variability, drop size, and kinetic energy. Fourteen rainfall simulations, at three intensities (about 20 millimeters per hour [mm/h], 35 mm/h, and 50 mm/h), were conducted on four plots. Measurements during and after the simulations included runoff, rainfall, suspended-sediment concentrations, surface ash layer thickness, soil moisture, soil grain size, soil lost on ignition, and plot topography. Runoff discharge reached a steady state within 7 to 26 minutes. Steady infiltration rates with the 50-mm/h application rainfall intensity approached 20?35 mm/h. If these rates are projected to rainfall application intensities used in many studies of burned area runoff production (about 80 mm/h), the steady discharge rates are on the lower end of measurements from other studies. Experiments using multiple rainfall intensities (three) suggest that runoff begins at rainfall intensities around 20 mm/h at the 1-square-meter scale, an observation consistent with a 10-mm/h rainfall intensity threshold needed for runoff initiation that has been reported in the literature.

Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher

A protocol for conducting rainfall simulation to study soil runoff.

Science.gov (United States)

Kibet, Leonard C; Saporito, Louis S; Allen, Arthur L; May, Eric B; Kleinman, Peter J A; Hashem, Fawzy M; Bryant, Ray B

2014-04-03

Rainfall is a driving force for the transport of environmental contaminants from agricultural soils to surficial water bodies via surface runoff. The objective of this study was to characterize the effects of antecedent soil moisture content on the fate and transport of surface applied commercial urea, a common form of nitrogen (N) fertilizer, following a rainfall event that occurs within 24 hr after fertilizer application. Although urea is assumed to be readily hydrolyzed to ammonium and therefore not often available for transport, recent studies suggest that urea can be transported from agricultural soils to coastal waters where it is implicated in harmful algal blooms. A rainfall simulator was used to apply a consistent rate of uniform rainfall across packed soil boxes that had been prewetted to different soil moisture contents. By controlling rainfall and soil physical characteristics, the effects of antecedent soil moisture on urea loss were isolated. Wetter soils exhibited shorter time from rainfall initiation to runoff initiation, greater total volume of runoff, higher urea concentrations in runoff, and greater mass loadings of urea in runoff. These results also demonstrate the importance of controlling for antecedent soil moisture content in studies designed to isolate other variables, such as soil physical or chemical characteristics, slope, soil cover, management, or rainfall characteristics. Because rainfall simulators are designed to deliver raindrops of similar size and velocity as natural rainfall, studies conducted under a standardized protocol can yield valuable data that, in turn, can be used to develop models for predicting the fate and transport of pollutants in runoff.

Comparison between Pludix and impact/optical disdrometers during rainfall measurement campaigns

Science.gov (United States)

Caracciolo, Clelia; Prodi, Franco; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2006-11-01

The performances of two couples of disdrometers based on different measuring principles are compared: a classical Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer and a recently developed device, called the Pludix tested in Ferrara, Italy, and Pludix and the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) tested in Cabauw, The Netherlands. First, the measuring principles of the different instruments are presented and compared. Secondly, the performances of the two pairs of disdrometers are analysed by comparing their rain amounts with nearby tipping bucket rain gauges and the inferred drop size distributions. The most important rainfall integral parameters (e.g. rain rate and radar reflectivity) and drop size distribution parameters are also analysed and compared. The data set for Ferrara comprises 13 rainfall events, with a total of 20 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 4 mm h - 1 . The data set for Cabauw consists of 9 events, with 25-50 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 20-40 mm h - 1 . The Pludix tends to underestimate slightly the bulk rainfall variables in less intense events, whereas it tends to overestimate with respect to the other instruments in heavier events. The correspondence of the inferred drop size distributions with those measured by the other disdrometers is reasonable, particularly with the Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer. Considering that the Pludix is still in a calibration and testing phase, the reported results are encouraging. A new signal inversion algorithm, which will allow the detection of rain drops throughout the entire diameter interval between 0.3 and 7.0 mm, is under development.

Low inflation, a high net savings surplus and institutional restrictions keep the Japanese long-term interest rate low

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, Pieter W.

2006-01-01

This paper explains that the interest rate on long-term Japanese government bonds is low in comparison with other industrialised countries for four main reasons: lower inflation, net savings surplus, institutional restrictions and home bias. Monetary policy and institutionalised purchases of

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response

Analisis Determinan Net Ekspor Indonesia

OpenAIRE

Daulay, Rahmawaty

2010-01-01

This study is to analyzing empirically among Indonesia GDP, trade partnership GDP (Malaysia, Singapore, US and Thailand) and real exchange rate toward Indonesia Net Export. To find out which one from those three variables is significant in order to fluctuating (increasing or decreasing) Indonesia Net Export either in the short run or in the long run. Data collection is obtained using secondary data, namely Indonesia GDP, Malaysia GDP, Singapura GDP, US GDP, Thailand GDP and real exchange rate...

How is rainfall interception in urban area affected by meteorological parameters?

Science.gov (United States)

Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Mikoš, Matjaž; Šraj, Mojca

2017-04-01

Rainfall interception is part of the hydrological cycle. Precipitation, which hits vegetation, is retained on the leaves and branches, from which it eventually evaporates into the atmosphere (interception) or reaches the ground by dripping from the canopy, falling through the gaps (throughfall) and running down the stems (stemflow). The amount of rainfall reaching the ground depends on various meteorological and vegetation parameters. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow have been measured in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia since the beginning of 2014. Manual and automatic measurements are performed regularly under Betula pendula and Pinus nigra trees in urban area. In 2014, there were detected 178 rainfall events with total amount of 1672.1 mm. In average B. pendula intercepted 44% of rainfall and P. nigra intercepted 72% of rainfall. In 2015 we have detected 117 events with 1047.4 mm of rainfall, of which 37% was intercepted by B. pendula and 60% by P. nigra. The effect of various meteorological parameters on the rainfall interception was analysed in the study. The parameters included in the analysis were rainfall rate, rainfall duration, drop size distribution (average drop velocity and diameter), average wind speed, and average temperature. The results demonstrate decreasing rainfall interception with longer rainfall duration and higher rainfall intensity although the impact of the latter one is not statistically significant. In the case of very fast or very slow rainfall drops, the interception is higher than for the mean rain drop velocity values. In the case of P. nigra the impact of the rain drop diameter on interception is similar to the one of rain drop velocity while for B. pendula increasing of drop diameter also increases the interception. As expected, interception is higher for warmer events. This trend is more evident for P. nigra than for B. pendula. Furthermore, the amount of intercepted rainfall also increases with wind although it could be

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

1999-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Sensitivity of power functions to aggregation: Bias and uncertainty in radar rainfall retrieval

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sassi, M.G.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-01-01

Rainfall retrieval using weather radar relies on power functions between radar reflectivity Z and rain rate R. The nonlinear nature of these relations complicates the comparison of rainfall estimates employing reflectivities measured at different scales. Transforming Z into R using relations that

Rainfall effect on dissipation and movement of diuron and simazine in a vineyard soil

OpenAIRE

Alister,C.; Kogan,M.

2010-01-01

From 2003 to 2007, a field study was performed in a vineyard in Chile to investigate diuron and simazine soil behavior and the effect of additional rainfall. Both herbicides were applied once a year at a rate of 2.0 kg ha-1 a.i. Herbicide concentrations in soil were measured at 0, 10, 20, 40, 90 and 340 days after application, under two pluviometric conditions, natural rainfall and natural rainfall plus irrigation with 180 mm of simulated rainfall during the first 90 days after application. S...

How El-Nino affects Ethiopian summer rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel; Viste, Ellen

2016-04-01

Ethiopian economy and society are strongly dependent on agriculture and therefore rainfall. Reliable forecasts for the rainy seasons are important to allow for agricultural planning and drought preparations. The operational seasonal forecasts for Ethiopia are based on analogue methods relying mainly on sea surface temperature (SST) indices. A better understanding of the physical links between Ethiopian rainfall and SST may help to improve forecasts. The highest rainfall rates are observed in the Kiremt season (defined as JJAS), which is the rainy season in Central and Northwestern Ethiopia. Kiremt rainfall shows clear negative correlation with Central Pacific SST, linking dry Ethiopian summers with ENSO-like warm SST anomalies. We use the atmosphere general circulation model Echam5.3 to investigate the physical link between Pacific SST anomalies and Kiremt rainfall. We compare a historical simulation with a T106 horizontal resolution (~ 1.125°), forced with reconstructed SST data, to gauge-based rainfall observations for the time period of 1961 to 2009. Composite analysis for model and observations show warm SST anomalies in the Central Pacific and a corresponding large-scale circulation anomaly with subsidence over Ethiopia in dry Kiremt seasons. Horizontal wind fields show a slow-down of the whole Indian monsoon system with a weaker Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and a weaker East African Low-Level Jet (EALLJ) in these summers. We conducted a sensitivity experiment with El Nino like SST anomalies in the Central Pacific with the same Echam version. Its results show that warm Pacific SST anomalies cause dry summer conditions over Ethiopia. While the large-scale subsidence over East Africa is present in the experiment, there is no significant weakening of the Indian monsoon system. We rather find an anomalous circulation cell over Northern Africa with westerlies at 100-200 hPa and easterlies below 500 hPa. The anomalous easterly flow in the lower and middle

Evaluation of intense rainfall parameters interpolation methods for the Espírito Santo State

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Eduardo Macedo Pezzopane

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Intense rainfalls are often responsible for the occurrence of undesirable processes in agricultural and forest areas, such as surface runoff, soil erosion and flooding. The knowledge of intense rainfall spatial distribution is important to agricultural watershed management, soil conservation and to the design of hydraulic structures. The present paper evaluated methods of spatial interpolation of the intense rainfall parameters (“K”, “a”, “b” and “c” for the Espírito Santo State, Brazil. Were compared real intense rainfall rates with those calculated by the interpolated intense rainfall parameters, considering different durations and return periods. Inverse distance to the 5th power IPD5 was the spatial interpolation method with better performance to spatial interpolated intense rainfall parameters.

[Seasonality of rotavirus infection in Venezuela: relationship between monthly rotavirus incidence and rainfall rates].

Science.gov (United States)

González Chávez, Rosabel

2015-09-01

In general, it has been reported that rotavirus infection was detected year round in tropical countries. However, studies in Venezuela and Brazil suggest a seasonal behavior of the infection. On the other hand, some studies link infection with climatic variables such as rainfall. This study analyzes the pattern of behavior of the rotavirus infection in Carabobo-Venezuela (2001-2005), associates the seasonality of the infection with rainfall, and according to the seasonal pattern, estimates the age of greatest risk for infection. The analysis of the rotavirus temporal series and accumulated precipitation was performed with the software SPSS. The infection showed two periods: high incidence (November-April) and low incidence (May-October). Accumulated precipitation presents an opposite behavior. The highest frequency of events (73.8% 573/779) for those born in the period with a low incidence of the virus was recorded at an earlier age (mean age 6.5 +/- 2.0 months) when compared with those born in the station of high incidence (63.5% 568/870, mean age 11.7 +/- 2.2 months). Seasonality of the infection and the inverse relationship between virus incidence and rainfall was demonstrated. In addition, it was found that the period of birth determines the age and risk of infection. This information generated during the preaccine period will be helpful to measure the impact of the vaccine against the rotavirus.

Simulated transient thermal infrared emissions of forest canopies during rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Ballard, Jerrell R.; Hawkins, William R.; Howington, Stacy E.; Kala, Raju V.

2017-05-01

We describe the development of a centimeter-scale resolution simulation framework for a theoretical tree canopy that includes rainfall deposition, evaporation, and thermal infrared emittance. Rainfall is simulated as discrete raindrops with specified rate. The individual droplets will either fall through the canopy and intersect the ground; adhere to a leaf; bounce or shatter on impact with a leaf resulting in smaller droplets that are propagated through the canopy. Surface physical temperatures are individually determined by surface water evaporation, spatially varying within canopy wind velocities, solar radiation, and water vapor pressure. Results are validated by theoretical canopy gap and gross rainfall interception models.

Shear-rate-dependent strength control on the dynamics of rainfall-triggered landslides, Tokushima Prefecture, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, G.; Suemine, A.; Schulz, W.H.

2010-01-01

A typhoon (Typhoon No. 10) attacked Shikoku Island and the Tyugoku area of Japan in 2004. This typhoon produced a new daily precipitation record of 1317 mm on Shikoku Island and triggered hundreds of landslides in Tokushima Prefecture. One catastrophic landslide was triggered in the Shiraishi area of Kisawa village, and destroyed more than 10 houses while also leaving an unstable block high on the slope. The unstable block kept moving after the event, showing accelerating and decelerating movement during and after rainfall and reaching a displacement of several meters before countermeasures were put into place. To examine the mechanism for this landsliding characteristic, samples (weathered serpentinite) were taken from the field, and their shear behaviours examined using ring shear tests. The test results revealed that the residual shear strength of the samples is positively dependent on the shear rate, which may provide an explanation for the continuous acceleratingdecelerating process of the landsliding. The roughness of the shear surface and the microstructure of the shear zone were measured and observed by laser microscope and SEM techniques in an attempt to clarify the mechanism of shear rate effect on the residual shear strength. Copyright ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

2017-04-01

order to guarantee quality of the assessment, especially in design of complex UDS, where features as the main slope, hydraulic capacity, permeability, etc. can play an important role. In addition, a novel approach has been applied to map the response time (Tc) of the flood prone areas of the system under study. Together with the flood area and volume RP estimates this provides valuable knowledge suggesting to consider the different subareas of the UDS for design purposes and to establish a robust database that allows urban areas to be resilient against the severe impact of rainfall. Acknowledgement to ERA-NET Cofund Water Works 2014 (project MUFFIN) for the partial funding of this research; to the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) for providing the rainfall dataset; to the Danish Geodata Agency for providing the DTM data and to DHI for providing license to MIKE software packages. The applied model has been made available for this study by Aarhus Water Utility Services. References DHI, 2014. MIKE by DHI software package 2014. Hørsholm, DK. DS/EN 752, 2008. Drain and sewer systems outside buildings.

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

2017-01-01

Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Rainfall Algorithm Applied Over Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Negri, A. J.; Xu, L.; Adler, R. F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The development of a satellite infrared technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall in Amazonia are presented. The Convective-Stratiform. Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), is applied during January to April 1999 over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. Results compare well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates reveal that the convective rain constitutes, in the mean, 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. The effects of geography (rivers, lakes, coasts) and topography on the diurnal cycle of convection are examined. In particular, the Amazon River, downstream of Manaus, is shown to both enhance early morning rainfall and inhibit afternoon convection. Monthly estimates from this technique, dubbed CST/TMI, are verified over a dense rain gage network in the state of Ceara, in northeast Brazil. The CST/TMI showed a high bias equal to +33% of the gage mean, indicating that possibly the TMI estimates alone are also high. The root mean square difference (after removal of the bias) equaled 36.6% of the gage mean. The correlation coefficient was 0.77 based on 72 station-months.

Performance and efficiency of geotextile-supported erosion control measures during simulated rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Obriejetan, Michael; Rauch, Hans Peter; Florineth, Florin

2013-04-01

Erosion control systems consisting of technical and biological components are widely accepted and proven to work well if installed properly with regard to site-specific parameters. A wide range of implementation measures for this specific protection purpose is existent and new, in particular technical solutions are constantly introduced into the market. Nevertheless, especially vegetation aspects of erosion control measures are frequently disregarded and should be considered enhanced against the backdrop of the development and realization of adaptation strategies in an altering environment due to climate change associated effects. Technical auxiliaries such as geotextiles typically used for slope protection (nettings, blankets, turf reinforcement mats etc.) address specific features and due to structural and material diversity, differing effects on sediment yield, surface runoff and vegetational development seem evident. Nevertheless there is a knowledge gap concerning the mutual interaction processes between technical and biological components respectively specific comparable data on erosion-reducing effects of technical-biological erosion protection systems are insufficient. In this context, an experimental arrangement was set up to study the correlated influences of geotextiles and vegetation and determine its (combined) effects on surface runoff and soil loss during simulated heavy rainfall events. Sowing vessels serve as testing facilities which are filled with top soil under application of various organic and synthetic geotextiles and by using a reliable drought resistant seed mixture. Regular vegetational monitoring as well as two rainfall simulation runs with four repetitions of each variant were conducted. Therefore a portable rainfall simulator with standardized rainfall intensity of 240 mm h-1 and three minute rainfall duration was used to stress these systems on different stages of plant development at an inclination of 30 degrees. First results show

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

2013-04-01

Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

Methods for measuring specific rates of mercury methylation and degradation and their use in determining factors controlling net rates of mercury methylation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramlal, P.S.; Rudd, J.W.M.; Hecky, R.E.

1986-01-01

A method was developed to estimate specific rates of demethylation of methyl mercury in aquatic samples by measuring the volatile 14 C end products of 14 CH 3 HgI demethylation. This method was used in conjuction with a 203 Hg 2+ radiochemical method which determines specific rates of mercury methylation. Together, these methods enabled us to examine some factors controlling the net rate of mercury methylation. The methodologies were field tested, using lake sediment samples from a recently flooded reservoir in the Southern Indian Lake system which had developed a mercury contamination problem in fish. Ratios of the specific rates of methylation/demethylation were calculated. The highest ratios of methylation/demethylation were calculated. The highest ratios of methylation/demethylation occurred in the flooded shorelines of Southern Indian Lake. These results provide an explanation for the observed increases in the methyl mercury concentrations in fish after flooding

Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts

Science.gov (United States)

Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.

2015-04-01

Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on a host of factors, including climate, soil, topography, cropping and land management practices among others. Most models for soil erosion or hydrological processes need an accurate storm characterization. However, this data are not always available and in some cases indirect models are generated to fill this gap. In Spain, the rain intensity data known for time periods less than 24 hours back to 1924 and many studies are limited by it. In many cases this data is stored in rainfall strip charts in the meteorological stations but haven't been transfer in a numerical form. To overcome this deficiency in the raw data a process of information extraction from large amounts of rainfall strip charts is implemented by means of computer software. The method has been developed that largely automates the intensive-labour extraction work based on van Piggelen et al. (2011). The method consists of the following five basic steps: 1) scanning the charts to high-resolution digital images, 2) manually and visually registering relevant meta information from charts and pre-processing, 3) applying automatic curve extraction software in a batch process to determine the coordinates of cumulative rainfall lines on the images (main step), 4) post processing the curves that were not correctly determined in step 3, and 5) aggregating the cumulative rainfall in pixel coordinates to the desired time resolution. A colour detection procedure is introduced that automatically separates the background of the charts and rolls from the grid and subsequently the rainfall curve. The rainfall curve is detected by minimization of a cost function. Some utilities have been added to improve the previous work and automates some auxiliary processes: readjust the bands properly, merge bands when

Accumulation rate in a tropical Andean glacier as a proxy for northern Amazon precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

da Rocha Ribeiro, Rafael; Simões, Jefferson Cardia; Ramirez, Edson; Taupin, Jean-Denis; Assayag, Elias; Dani, Norberto

2018-04-01

Andean tropical glaciers have shown a clear shrinkage throughout the last few decades. However, it is unclear how this general retreat is associated with variations in rainfall patterns in the Amazon basin. To investigate this question, we compared the annual net accumulation variations in the Bolivian Cordillera Real (Andes), which is derived from an ice core from the Nevado Illimani (16° 37' S, 67° 46' W), covering the period 1960-1999 using the Amazonian Rainfall Index, Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The accumulation rate at the Nevado Illimani ice core decreased by almost 25% after 1980, from 1.02 w.eq. a-1 (water equivalent per year) in the 1961-1981 period to 0.76 w.eq. a-1 in the 1981-1999 period. The Northern Amazonian Rainfall (NAR) index best reflects changes in accumulation rates in the Bolivian ice core. Our proposal is based on two observations: (1) This area shows reduced rainfall associated with a more frequent and intense El Niño (during the positive phase of the MEI). The opposite (more rain) is true during La Niña phases. (2) Comparisons of the ice core record and NAR, PDO, and MEI indexes showed similar trends for the early 1980s, represented by a decrease in the accumulation rates and its standard deviations, probably indicating the same causality. The general changes observed by early 1980s coincided with the beginning of a PDO warm phase. This was followed by an increase in the Amazonian and tropical Andean precipitation from 1999, coinciding with a new PDO phase. However, this increase did not result in an expansion of the Zongo Glacier area.

Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

Science.gov (United States)

Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

Science.gov (United States)

Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

2018-03-01

Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, W.

2004-05-01

A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

Comparing Approaches to Deal With Non-Gaussianity of Rainfall Data in Kriging-Based Radar-Gauge Rainfall Merging

Science.gov (United States)

Cecinati, F.; Wani, O.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

2017-11-01

Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall data is a technique used to improve the quality of spatial rainfall estimates and in particular the use of Kriging with External Drift (KED) is a very effective radar-rain gauge rainfall merging technique. However, kriging interpolations assume Gaussianity of the process. Rainfall has a strongly skewed, positive, probability distribution, characterized by a discontinuity due to intermittency. In KED rainfall residuals are used, implicitly calculated as the difference between rain gauge data and a linear function of the radar estimates. Rainfall residuals are non-Gaussian as well. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of applying KED to non-Gaussian rainfall residuals, and to assess the best techniques to improve Gaussianity. We compare Box-Cox transformations with λ parameters equal to 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1, Box-Cox with time-variant optimization of λ, normal score transformation, and a singularity analysis technique. The results suggest that Box-Cox with λ = 0.1 and the singularity analysis is not suitable for KED. Normal score transformation and Box-Cox with optimized λ, or λ = 0.25 produce satisfactory results in terms of Gaussianity of the residuals, probability distribution of the merged rainfall products, and rainfall estimate quality, when validated through cross-validation. However, it is observed that Box-Cox transformations are strongly dependent on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and on the units used for the rainfall intensity. Overall, applying transformations results in a quantitative improvement of the rainfall estimates only if the correct transformations for the specific data set are used.

Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oduro Afriyie, K.

1995-10-01

Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hahnenberger, Maura

2006-01-01

Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

Fluvial signatures of modern and paleo orographic rainfall gradients

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Schildgen, Taylor; Strecker, Manfred

2016-04-01

The morphology of river profiles is intimately linked to both climate and tectonic forcing. While much interest recently has focused on how river profiles can be inverted to derive uplift histories, here we show how in regions of strong orographic rainfall gradients, rivers may primarily record spatial patterns of precipitation. As a case study, we examine the eastern margin of the Andean plateau in NW Argentina, where the outward (eastward) growth of a broken foreland has led to a eastward shift in the main orographic rainfall gradient over the last several million years. Rivers influenced by the modern rainfall gradient are characterized by normalized river steepness values in tributary valleys that closely track spatial variations in rainfall, with higher steepness values in drier areas and lower steepness values in wetter areas. The same river steepness pattern has been predicted in landscape evolution models that apply a spatial gradient in rainfall to a region of uniform erosivity and uplift rate (e.g., Han et al., 2015). Also, chi plots from river networks on individual ranges affected by the modern orographic rainfall reveal patterns consistent with assymmetric precipitation across the range: the largest channels on the windward slopes are characterized by capture, while the longest channels on the leeward slopes are dominated by beheadings. Because basins on the windward side both lengthen and widen, tributary channels in the lengthening basins are characterized by capture, while tributary channels from neighboring basins on the windward side are dominated by beheadings. These patterns from the rivers influenced by the modern orographic rainfall gradient provide a guide for identifying river morphometric signatures of paleo orographic rainfall gradients. Mountain ranges to the west of the modern orographic rainfall have been interpreted to mark the location of orographic rainfall in the past, but these ranges are now in spatially near-uniform semi-arid to

Rain events decrease boreal peatland net CO2 uptake through reduced light availability.

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Nijp, Jelmer J; Limpens, Juul; Metselaar, Klaas; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats B; van der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M; Berendse, Frank

2015-06-01

Boreal peatlands store large amounts of carbon, reflecting their important role in the global carbon cycle. The short-term exchange and the long-term storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in these ecosystems are closely associated with the permanently wet surface conditions and are susceptible to drought. Especially, the single most important peat forming plant genus, Sphagnum, depends heavily on surface wetness for its primary production. Changes in rainfall patterns are expected to affect surface wetness, but how this transient rewetting affects net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) remains unknown. This study explores how the timing and characteristics of rain events during photosynthetic active periods, that is daytime, affect peatland NEE and whether rain event associated changes in environmental conditions modify this response (e.g. water table, radiation, vapour pressure deficit, temperature). We analysed an 11-year time series of half-hourly eddy covariance and meteorological measurements from Degerö Stormyr, a boreal peatland in northern Sweden. Our results show that daytime rain events systematically decreased the sink strength of peatlands for atmospheric CO2 . The decrease was best explained by rain associated reduction in light, rather than by rain characteristics or drought length. An average daytime growing season rain event reduced net ecosystem CO2 uptake by 0.23-0.54 gC m(-2) . On an annual basis, this reduction of net CO2 uptake corresponds to 24% of the annual net CO2 uptake (NEE) of the study site, equivalent to a 4.4% reduction of gross primary production (GPP) during the growing season. We conclude that reduced light availability associated with rain events is more important in explaining the NEE response to rain events than rain characteristics and changes in water availability. This suggests that peatland CO2 uptake is highly sensitive to changes in cloud cover formation and to altered rainfall regimes, a process hitherto largely

Ecological mechanisms underlying soil bacterial responses to rainfall along a steep natural precipitation gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Waring, Bonnie; Hawkes, Christine V

2018-02-01

Changes in the structure and function of soil microbial communities can drive substantial ecosystem feedbacks to altered precipitation. However, the ecological mechanisms underlying community responses to environmental change are not well understood. We used an 18-month soil reciprocal transplant experiment along a steep precipitation gradient to quantify how changes in rainfall affected bacterial community structure. We also conducted an enhanced dispersal treatment to ask whether higher immigration rates of taxa from the surrounding environment would accelerate community responses to climate change. Finally, we addressed how the composition of soil bacteria communities was related to the functional response of soil respiration to moisture in these treatments. Bacterial community structure (OTU abundance) and function (respiration rates) changed little in response to manipulation of either rainfall environment or dispersal rates. Although most bacteria were ecological generalists, a subset of specialist taxa, over 40% of which were Actinobacteria, tended to be more abundant in the rainfall environment that matched their original conditions. Bacteria community composition was an important predictor of the respiration response to moisture. Thus, the high compositional resistance of microbial communities dictated respiration responses to altered rainfall in this system.

Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Gradient on Runoff and Soil Moisture Content on Different Growing Stages of Spring Maize

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Wenbin Mu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The rainfall-runoff process (RRP is an important part of hydrologic process. There is an effective measure to study RRP through artificial rainfall simulation. This paper describes a study on three growing stages (jointing stage, tasseling stage, and mature stage of spring maize in which simulated rainfall events were used to study the effects of various factors (rainfall intensity and slope gradient on the RRP. The RRP was tested with three different rainfall intensities (0.67, 1.00, and 1.67 mm/min and subjected to three different slopes (5°, 15°, and 20° so as to study RRP characteristics in semiarid regions. Regression analysis was used to study the results of this test. The following key results were obtained: (1 With the increase in rainfall intensity and slope, the increasing relationship with rainfall duration, overland flow, and cumulative runoff, respectively, complied with logarithmic and quadratic functions before reaching stable runoff in each growing stage of spring maize; (2 The runoff coefficient increased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope in each growing stages of spring maize. The relationship between runoff coefficient, slope, rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage was multivariate and nonlinear; (3 The runoff lag time decreased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope within the same growing stage. In addition, the relationship between runoff lag time, slope, rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage could also be expressed by a multivariate nonlinear equation; (4 The descent rate of soil infiltration rate curve increased with the increased rainfall intensity and slope in the same growing stage. Furthermore, by comparing the Kostiakov, Horton, and Philip models, it was found that the Horton infiltration model was the best for estimating soil infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration under the condition of test.

Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

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Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

2017-05-01

This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Rabiei, Ehsan; Haberlandt, Uwe; Sester, Monika; Fitzner, Daniel; Wallner, Markus

2016-09-01

The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rain rate. The optical sensors used in that study are designed for operating the windscreen wipers and showed promising results for rainfall measurement purposes. Their measurement accuracy has been quantified in laboratory experiments. Considering explicitly those errors, the main objective of this study is to investigate the benefit of using RCs for estimating areal rainfall. For that, computer experiments are carried out, where radar rainfall is considered as the reference and the other sources of data, i.e., RCs and rain gauges, are extracted from radar data. Comparing the quality of areal rainfall estimation by RCs with rain gauges and reference data helps to investigate the benefit of the RCs. The value of this additional source of data is not only assessed for areal rainfall estimation performance but also for use in hydrological modeling. Considering measurement errors derived from laboratory experiments, the result shows that the RCs provide useful additional information for areal rainfall estimation as well as for hydrological modeling. Moreover, by testing larger uncertainties for RCs, they observed to be useful up to a certain level for areal rainfall estimation and discharge simulation.

Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

2015-04-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

Science.gov (United States)

Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

2015-04-01

one parallel channel and reservoir, thereby corresponding to 'quick' and 'slow' components of runoff. In the non linear model a wetness/soil moisture index, varying from 0 to 1, was derived to define daily soil moisture catchment conditions and then conveniently linked to a corresponding CN value to use as input to derive the corresponding rainfall threshold for a given day. Finally, rainfall thresholds for flash flooding were derived using an Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall. Application of the proposed methodology was carried out with reference to a river basin in Sicily, Italy.

Inter-Annual Variability Of Rainfall In Some States Of Southern Nigeria

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Egor

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract The study inter-annual variability of rainfall in some states in Southern Nigeria focuses on analyzing the trends and fluctuations in annual rainfall over six states in Southern Nigeria covering a period of 1972 2012. In order to ascertain the variabilitys and to model the annual rainfall for future prediction to enhance policy implementation the quantitative and descriptive analysis techniques was employed. The rainfall series were analyzed for fluctuations using Standardized Anomaly Index SAI whereas the trends were examined using Statistical Package for Social Science Software SPSS 17.0. At 95 percent confidence level observations in the stations may be signals that the wetter period dominates the drier periods in this study. Each of the series contains two distinct periods when the rainfall anomalies negative and positive of a particular type were most significant. The period where the annual rainfall is above one standard deviation from the mean annual rainfall is considered Wet and the period below one standard deviation from the mean annual rainfall is considered Dry for each station. The results of the linear trend lines revealed an increase in rainfall supply over the period of study especially of recent. The annual rate of increase in rainfall over the period of investigation 1972 - 2012 were 15.21mmyear for Calabar 2.18mmyear for Port Harcourt 22.23mmyear for Owerri 3.25mmyear for Benin City 5.08mmyear for Enugu and 16.29mmyear for Uyo respectively. The variability in amount of annual rainfall revealed that in 2012 Calabar received the highest amount of rainfall of about 4062.70mm and the least value of 2099.4mm in 1973. In Porthacourt the highest amount of rainfall occurred in 1993 with a value of 3911.70mm and the least value in 1983 with a value of 1816.4mm. Owerri recorded the highest amount of rainfall of about 3064.0mm in 2011 and the least value occurred in 1986 with a value of 1228.4mm. In 1976 Benin received the

Rainfall Effects on the Kuroshio Current East of Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Po-Chun; Lin, Chen-Chih; Ho, Chung-Ru

2017-04-01

Changes of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the open oceans are related to precipitation and evaporation. SSS has been an indicator of water cycle. It may be related to the global change. The Kuroshio Current, a western boundary current originating from the North Equatorial Current, transfers warm and higher salinity to higher latitudes. It flows northward along the east coasts of Luzon Island and Taiwan Island to Japan. In this study, effects of heavy rainfall on the Kuroshio surface salinity east of Taiwan are investigated. Sea surface salinity (SSS) data taken by conductivity temperature depth (CTD) sensor on R/V Ocean Researcher I cruises, conductivity sensor on eight glider cruises, and Aquarius satellite data are used in this study. The rain rate data derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) are also employed. A glider is a kind of autonomous underwater vehicle, which uses small changes in its buoyancy in conjunction with wings to convert vertical motion to horizontal in the underwater without requiring input from an operator. It can take sensors to measure salinity, temperature, and pressure. The TRMM/TMI data from remote sensing system are daily and are mapped to 0.25-degree grid. The results show a good correlation between the rain rate and SSS with a correlation coefficient of 0.86. The rainfall causes SSS of the Kuroshio surface water drops 0.176 PSU per 1 mm/hr rain rate.

Rainfall during parental care reduces reproductive and survival components of fitness in a passerine bird.

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Öberg, Meit; Arlt, Debora; Pärt, Tomas; Laugen, Ane T; Eggers, Sönke; Low, Matthew

2015-01-01

Adverse weather conditions during parental care may have direct consequences for offspring production, but longer-term effects on juvenile and parental survival are less well known. We used long-term data on reproductive output, recruitment, and parental survival in northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) to investigate the effects of rainfall during parental care on fledging success, recruitment success (juvenile survival), and parental survival, and how these effects related to nestling age, breeding time, habitat quality, and parental nest visitation rates. While accounting for effects of temperature, fledging success was negatively related to rainfall (days > 10 mm) in the second half of the nestling period, with the magnitude of this effect being greater for breeding attempts early in the season. Recruitment success was, however, more sensitive to the number of rain days in the first half of the nestling period. Rainfall effects on parental survival differed between the sexes; males were more sensitive to rain during the nestling period than females. We demonstrate a probable mechanism driving the rainfall effects on reproductive output: Parental nest visitation rates decline with increasing amounts of daily rainfall, with this effect becoming stronger after consecutive rain days. Our study shows that rain during the nestling stage not only relates to fledging success but also has longer-term effects on recruitment and subsequent parental survival. Thus, if we want to understand or predict population responses to future climate change, we need to consider the potential impacts of changing rainfall patterns in addition to temperature, and how these will affect target species' vital rates.

Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

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V. Montesarchio

2009-02-01

Full Text Available An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions. Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate for the case study of Mignone River are presented.

Are HPV vaccination services accessible to high-risk communities? A spatial analysis of HPV-associated cancer and Chlamydia rates and safety-net clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsui, Jennifer; Rodriguez, Hector P; Gee, Gilbert C; Escobedo, Loraine A; Kominski, Gerald F; Bastani, Roshan

2013-12-01

While HPV vaccines can greatly benefit adolescents and young women from high-risk areas, little is known about whether safety-net immunization services are geographically accessible to communities at greatest risk for HPV-associated diseases. We explore the spatial relationship between areas with high HPV risk and proximity to safety-net clinics from an ecologic perspective. We used cancer registry data and Chlamydia surveillance data to identify neighborhoods within Los Angeles County with high risk for HPV-associated cancers. We examined proximity to safety-net clinics among neighborhoods with the highest risk. Proximity was measured as the shortest distance between each neighborhood center and the nearest clinic and having a clinic within 3 miles of each neighborhood center. The average 5-year non-age-adjusted rates were 1,940 cases per 100,000 for Chlamydia and 60 per 100,000 for HPV-associated cancers. A large majority, 349 of 386 neighborhoods with high HPV-associated cancer rates and 532 of 537 neighborhoods with high Chlamydia rates, had a clinic within 3 miles of the neighborhood center. Clinics were more likely to be located within close proximity to high-risk neighborhoods in the inner city. High-risk neighborhoods outside of this urban core area were less likely to be near accessible clinics. The majority of high-risk neighborhoods were geographically near safety-net clinics with HPV vaccination services. Due to low rates of vaccination, these findings suggest that while services are geographically accessible, additional efforts are needed to improve uptake. Programs aimed to increase awareness about the vaccine and to link underserved groups to vaccination services are warranted.

[Zr(NEtMe)2(guan-NEtMe)2] as a novel ALD precursor: ZrO2 film growth and mechanistic studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blanquart, T.; Niinistö, J.; Aslam, N.; Banerjee, M.; Tomczak, Y.; Gavagnin, M.; Longo, V.; Puukilainen, E.; Wanzenboeck, H.D.; Kessels, W.M.M.; Devi, A.; Hoffmann-Eifert, S.; Ritala, M.; Leskelä, M.

2013-01-01

[Zr(NEtMe)2(guan-NEtMe2)2], a recently developed compound, was investigated as a novel precursor for the atomic layer deposition (ALD) of ZrO2. With water as the oxygen source, the growth rate remained constant over a wide temperature range, whereas with ozone the growth rate increased steadily with

Modern Spatial Rainfall Rate is well Correlated with Coretop δ2Hdinosterol in the South Pacific Convergence Zone: a Tool for Quantitative Reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Maloney, A. E.; Nelson, D. B.; Sachs, J. P.; Hassall, J. D.; Sear, D. A.; Langdon, P. G.; Prebble, M.; Richey, J. N.; Schabetsberger, R.; Sichrowsky, U.; Hope, G.

2016-02-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most prominent precipitation feature extending southeastward 3000 km from Papua New Guinea to French Polynesia. Determining how the SPCZ responded to climate variations before the instrumental record requires the use of indirect indicators of rainfall. The link between the hydrogen isotopic composition of water fluxes though the hydrologic cycle, lake water, and molecular fossil 2H/1H ratios make hydrogen isotopes a promising tool for improving our understanding of this important climate feature. An analysis of coretop sediment from freshwater lakes in the SPCZ region indicates that there is a strong spatial relationship between δ2Hdinosterol and mean annual precipitation rate. The objectives of this research are to use 2H/1H ratios of the biomarker dinosterol to develop an empirical relationship between δ2Hdinosterol and modern environmental rainfall rates so that we may quantitatively reconstruct several aspects of the SPCZ's hydrological system during the late Holocene. The analysis includes lake sediment coretops from the Solomon Islands, Wallis Island, Vanuatu, Tahiti, Samoa, New Caledonia, and the Cook Islands. These islands span range of average modern precipitation rates from 3 to 7 mm/day and the coretop sediment δ2Hdinosterol values range from -240‰ to -320‰. Applying this regional coretop calibration to dated sediment cores reveals that the mean annual position and/or intensity of the SPCZ has not been static during the past 2000 years.

Satellite rainfall monitoring over Africa for food security, using multi-channel MSG data

Science.gov (United States)

Chadwick, R.; Grimes, D.; Saunders, R.; Blackmore, T.; Francis, P.

2009-04-01

Near real-time rainfall estimates are crucial in sub-Saharan Africa for a variety of humanitarian and agricultural purposes. However, for economic and infrastructural reasons, regularly reporting rain-gauges are sparse and precipitation radar networks extremely rare. Satellite rainfall estimates, particularly from geostationary satellites such as Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), present one method of filling this information gap, as they produce data at high temporal and spatial resolution. An algorithm has been developed to produce rainfall estimates for Africa from multi-channel MSG data. The algorithm is calibrated using precipitation radar data collected in Niamey, Niger as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) project in 2006, and is based on an algorithm used operationally over Europe by the UK Met Office. Contingency tables are used to establish a statistical relationship between multi-channel MSG data and probability of rainfall at several different rain-rate magnitudes as sensed by the radar. Rain-rate estimates can then be produced at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, with MSG scan length (15 minutes) and pixel size (3-4km) as the lower limit. Results will be presented of a validation of this algorithm over the Sahel region of Africa. Rainfall estimates from this algorithm, processed for 2004, will be validated against gridded rain-gauge data at a 0.5 degree and 10 day timescale suitable for drought monitoring purposes. A comparison will also be made against rainfall estimates from the TAMSAT algorithm, which uses single channel IR data from MSG, and has been shown to perform well in the Sahel region.

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

Science.gov (United States)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Kakar, Ramesh; Adler, Robert; Smith, Eric; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

2014-05-01

Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

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Roriz Luciano Machado

2017-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

Science.gov (United States)

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

Controls on the variability of net infiltration to desert sandstone

Science.gov (United States)

Heilweil, Victor M.; McKinney, Tim S.; Zhdanov, Michael S.; Watt, Dennis E.

2007-01-01

As populations grow in arid climates and desert bedrock aquifers are increasingly targeted for future development, understanding and quantifying the spatial variability of net infiltration becomes critically important for accurately inventorying water resources and mapping contamination vulnerability. This paper presents a conceptual model of net infiltration to desert sandstone and then develops an empirical equation for its spatial quantification at the watershed scale using linear least squares inversion methods for evaluating controlling parameters (independent variables) based on estimated net infiltration rates (dependent variables). Net infiltration rates used for this regression analysis were calculated from environmental tracers in boreholes and more than 3000 linear meters of vadose zone excavations in an upland basin in southwestern Utah underlain by Navajo sandstone. Soil coarseness, distance to upgradient outcrop, and topographic slope were shown to be the primary physical parameters controlling the spatial variability of net infiltration. Although the method should be transferable to other desert sandstone settings for determining the relative spatial distribution of net infiltration, further study is needed to evaluate the effects of other potential parameters such as slope aspect, outcrop parameters, and climate on absolute net infiltration rates.

[Runoff and sediment yielding processes on red soil engineering accumulation containing gravels by a simulated rainfall experiment].

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Qian-hua; Wang, Wen-long; Guo, Ming-ming; Bai, Yun; Deng, Li-qiang; Li, Jian-ming; Li, Yao-lin

2015-09-01

Engineering accumulation formed in production and construction projects is characterized by unique structure and complex material composition. Characteristics of soil erosion on the engineering accumulation significantly differ from those on farmland. An artificially simulated rainfall experiment was carried out to investigate the effects of rainfall intensity on the processes of runoff and sediment yielding on the engineering accumulation of different gravel contents (0%, 10%, 20% and 30%) in red soil regions. Results showed that the initial time of runoff generation decreased with increases in rainfall intensity and gravel content, the decreased amplitudes being about 48.5%-77.9% and 4.2%-34.2%, respectively. The initial time was found to be a power function of rainfall intensity. Both runoff velocity and runoff rate manifested a trend of first rising and then in a steady state with runoff duration. Rainfall intensity was found to be the main factor influencing runoff velocity and runoff rate, whereas the influence of gravel content was not significant. About 10% of gravel content was determined to be a critical value in the influence of gravel content on runoff volume. For the underlying surface of 10% gravel content, the runoff volume was least at rainfall intensity of 1.0 mm · min(-1) and maximum at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). The runoff volume in- creased 10%-60% with increase in rainfall intensity. Sediment concentration showed a sharp decline in first 6 min and then in a stable state in rest of time. Influence of rainfall intensity on sediment concentration decreased as gravel content increased. Gravels could reduce sediment yield significantly at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). Sediment yield was found to be a linear function of rainfall intensity and gravel content.

Analysis of climate change impact on rainfall pattern of Sambas district, West Kalimantan

Science.gov (United States)

Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang; Slamet S, Lilik

2018-05-01

Climate change is one of the most important issues being discussed globally. It caused by global warming and indirectly affecting the world climate cycle. This research discussed the effect of climate change on rainfall pattern of Sambas District and predicted the future rainfall pattern due to climate change. CRU and TRMM were used and has been validated using in situ data. This research was used Climate Modelling and Prediction using CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) which also validated by in situ data (correlation= 0.81). The results show that temperature trends in Sambas regency increased to 0.082°C/yr from 1991-2014 according to CRU data. High temperature trigger changes in rainfall patterns. Rainfall pattern in Sambas District has an equatorial type where the peak occurs when the sun is right on the equator. Rainfall in Sambas reaches the maximum in March and September when the equinox occurs. The CCAM model is used to project rainfall in Sambas District in the future. The model results show that rainfall in Sambas District is projected to increase to 0.018 mm/month until 2055 so the flow rate increase 0.006 m3/month and the water balance increase 0.009 mm/month.

Comparison of net photosynthetic rate and 14C distribution between different cultural conditions on double cropping rice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Jianliang; Li Hesong; Zou Yingbin; Tu Naimei; Li Jianhui

2002-01-01

By applying the cultural method 'Vigorous Root-Strong Stem-Heavy Panicle Cultural Method' (VSHM), the yield of double cropping rice reached 18000 kg/hm 2 in large area at Liling county, Hunan province. The net photosynthetic rate and 14 C distribution of rice leaves between VSHM and traditional cultural methods (CK) were compared. The photosynthetic rate of the flag leaves at ripening stages under VSHM was higher than that of controls with both earlier rice or later rice. Regarding the net amount of 14 C-assimilate by a single flag leaf and the second top leaf, there were differences at the significant level of 0.01 and 0.05, respectively between VSHM and controls, and VSHM were 7.72%-35.05% higher. The percentage of distribution at panicles of 14 C-assimilate were 51.93%-61.40% when flag leaf was labelled, and 45.34%-54.25% when the second top leaf was labelled, that of earlier rice was higher than later rice respectively, but the differences were not significant between VSHM and CK. The actual yield of double cropping rice under the cultural condition of VSHM was 17710 kg/hm 2 , and increased by 18.33% when compared with controls

Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

2009-12-01

A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

Conditions for the Occurrence of Slaking and Other Disaggregation Processes under Rainfall

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Frédéric Darboux

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Under rainfall conditions, aggregates may suffer breakdown by different mechanisms. Slaking is a very efficient breakdown mechanism. However, its occurrence under rainfall conditions has not been demonstrated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of slaking under rain. Two soils with silt loam (SL and clay loam (CL textures were analyzed. Two classes of aggregates were utilized: 1–3 mm and 3–5 mm. The aggregates were submitted to stability tests and to high intensity (90 mm·h−1 and low intensity (28 mm·h−1 rainfalls, and different kinetic energy impacts (large and small raindrops using a rainfall simulator. The fragment size distributions were determined both after the stability tests and rainfall simulations, with the calculation of the mean weighted diameter (MWD. After the stability tests the SL presented smaller MWDs for all stability tests when compared to the CL. In both soils the lowest MWD was obtained using the fast wetting test, showing they were sensitive to slaking. For both soils and the two aggregate classes evaluated, the MWDs were recorded from the early beginning of the rainfall event under the four rainfall conditions. The occurrence of slaking in the evaluated soils was not verified under the simulated rainfall conditions studied. The early disaggregation was strongly related to the cumulative kinetic energy, advocating for the occurrence of mechanical breakdown. Because slaking requires a very high wetting rate on initially dry aggregates, it seems unlikely to occur under field conditions, except perhaps for furrow irrigation.

A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jie-Hao; Zhao, Zi-Qian; Shi, Ji-Yun; Zhao, Chong

2017-01-01

In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR) estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR) model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model by 5.80%.

A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Zi-Qian; Shi, Ji-Yun; Zhao, Chong

2017-01-01

In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR) estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR) model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model by 5.80%. PMID:29209363

Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

2009-04-01

Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

2016-07-01

River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

2015-05-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Basis Risk and Net Interest Income of Banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mielus Piotr

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The results of the banking sector are shaped primarily by commissions and net interest income. Net interest income is determined by the difference between the profitability of bank assets and liabilities. In the case when a different method is used to determine interest for each side of the balance sheet, there occurs a basis risk that may lead to the deterioration in the net interest income of the sector. This is the situation in the Polish banking sector, which is characterized by the presence of variable interest rates for long-term assets and fixed interest rates for short-term liabilities. The study aims to verify the following thesis: in an environment of falling interest rates we can observe the deterioration in net interest income of the banking sector, as a result of the materialization of the basis risk. The authors of the article state that the source of the basis risk is the mismatch between the reference rate used to define the interest flow of loans and the actual cost of financing the balance through term deposits collected from non-financial entities.

Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.

2009-12-01

Rainfall-induced landslides can be triggered by two main mechanisms: shear failure due to build-up of pore water pressure and erosion by surface water runoff when flow velocity exceeds a critical value. Field measurements indicate that, in the initial phase, the slip surface of a landslide often occurs along the top of a relatively impermeable layer located at some depth within the soil profile, e.g. at the contact with a shallow underlying bedrock or parent rock. The shear strength along this surface and hence the stability of the slope is governed by the pore water pressure. The pore pressure is in turn controlled by water seepage through the slope, either from infiltrated rain, or from groundwater that follows bedrock joints and soil layers with high permeability. When the infiltration rate of the underlying layer is too low for further downward penetration of water or when a wetting front is produced, pore water pressure builds up, reducing the soil shear strength. During high intensity rainfall, surface water runoff will exert shear stresses on the bed material. De-pending on the grain size distribution and specific gravity of the material, erosion might occur when the flow velocity exceeds a critical value. As erosion progresses and sediment concentration increases, the flow regime may become unstable with heavy erosion at high flow velocity locations triggering a debris flow. In many cases, previous landslides along steep gully walls have fed an abundance of loose soil material into the gullies. Landslides along gully walls that obstruct the water transport may also trigger debris flows when the landslide-dam collapses, creating a surge downstream. Both the long-duration (1 or more days) and short-duration precipitation (of the order of 1 hour) are significant in the triggering of shallow landslides, since the critical short-duration rainfall intensity reduces as the antecedent accumulated rainfall increases. Experiences in Norway indicate that the maxi

ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL PATTERN AND FLOOD INCIDENCES IN WARRI METROPOLIS, NIGERIA

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R. Olanrewaju

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change has led to changes in the known patterns of rainfall and other climatic variables as well as increase in the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters including floods in different parts of the world; and flood is indeed a global environmental issue that had destroyed lives and property amidst other untold hardships. The study examined rainfall characteristics in Warri metropolis for the past 30 years (1986-2015 vis-à-vis the flood situation in the metropolis; as well as the factors responsible and adaptation strategies to flood in the area. Dividing the study area into four zones after Sada (1977, the researchers collected rainfall data from the archives of Nigerian Meteorological Agency; 268 copies of questionnaire and oral interview were used. The result of the correlation analysis performed showed a negative relationship of -0.156 between rainfall and time (years, this implies that rainfall is decreasing over time. The trend line regression equation Y=243.75-0.4572X, confirms that rainfall in Warri Metropolis is decreasing at the rate of -0.45 per year. However, the p-value 0.412 is greater than 0.05, hence, the trend is not statistically significant at 95% level of confidence. It was discovered that rainfall, absence of drainage and poor urban planning practices (as factor 1 contributed 51.09% while overflowing of rivers, blocked/ poor drainage and untarred roads (as factor 2 contributed 44.10% variance to flood occurrence in the metropolis. Recommendations given included continual monitoring and study of rainfall characteristics and other climatic data and dissemination of such information for planning purposes; construction of integrated drainage system and river rechannelisation, legislation against dumping of refuse on roads and drainages; proper urban planning including implementation of the metropolitan urban drainage master plan. 

Global Distribution of Net Electron Acceptance in Subseafloor Sediment

Science.gov (United States)

Fulfer, V. M.; Pockalny, R. A.; D'Hondt, S.

2017-12-01

We quantified the global distribution of net electron acceptance rates (e-/m2/year) in subseafloor sediment (>1.5 meters below seafloor [mbsf]) using (i) a modified version of the chemical-reaction-rate algorithm by Wang et al. (2008), (ii) physical properties and dissolved oxygen and sulfate data from interstitial waters of sediment cores collected by the Ocean Drilling Program, Integrated Ocean Drilling Program, International Ocean Discovery Program, and U.S. coring expeditions, and (iii) correlation of net electron acceptance rates to global oceanographic properties. Calculated net rates vary from 4.8 x 1019 e-/m2/year for slowly accumulating abyssal clay to 1.2 x 1023 e-/m2/year for regions of high sedimentation rate. Net electron acceptance rate correlates strongly with mean sedimentation rate. Where sedimentation rate is very low (e.g., 1 m/Myr), dissolved oxygen penetrates more than 70 mbsf and is the primary terminal electron acceptor. Where sedimentation rate is moderate (e.g., 3 to 60 m/Myr), dissolved sulfate penetrates as far as 700 mbsf and is the principal terminal electron acceptor. Where sedimentation rate is high (e.g., > 60 m/Myr), dissolved sulfate penetrates only meters, but is the principal terminal electron acceptor in subseafloor sediment to the depth of sulfate penetration. Because microbial metabolism continues at greater depths than the depth of sulfate penetration in fast-accumulating sediment, complete quantification of subseafloor metabolic rates will require consideration of other chemical species.

Surface runoff and soil erosion by difference of surface cover characteristics using by an oscillating rainfall simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J. K.; Kim, M. S.; Yang, D. Y.

2017-12-01

Sediment transfer within hill slope can be changed by the hydrologic characteristics of surface material on hill slope. To better understand sediment transfer of the past and future related to climate changes, studies for the changes of soil erosion due to hydrological characteristics changes by surface materials on hill slope are needed. To do so, on-situ rainfall simulating test was conducted on three different surface conditions, i.e. well covered with litter layer condition (a), undisturbed bare condition (b), and disturbed bare condition (c) and these results from rainfall simulating test were compared with that estimated using the Limburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM). The result from the rainfall simulating tests showed differences in the infiltration rate (a > b > c) and the highest soil erosion rate was occurred on c condition. The result from model also was similar to those from rainfall simulating tests, however, the difference from the value of soil erosion rate between two results was quite large on b and c conditions. These results implied that the difference of surface conditions could change the surface runoff and soil erosion and the result from the erosion model might significantly underestimate on bare surface conditions rather than that from rainfall simulating test.

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey

2017-04-01

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this

Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

Science.gov (United States)

Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

2017-05-01

Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buishand, T.A.

1977-01-01

Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

Satellite observations of rainfall effect on sea surface salinity in the waters adjacent to Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Chung-Ru; Hsu, Po-Chun; Lin, Chen-Chih; Huang, Shih-Jen

2017-10-01

Changes of oceanic salinity are highly related to the variations of evaporation and precipitation. To understand the influence of rainfall on the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the waters adjacent to Taiwan, satellite remote sensing data from the year of 2012 to 2014 are employed in this study. The daily rain rate data obtained from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Microwave Imager (TRMM/TMI), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR), and WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer. The SSS data was derived from the measurements of radiometer instruments onboard the Aquarius satellite. The results show the average values of SSS in east of Taiwan, east of Luzon and South China Sea are 33.83 psu, 34.05 psu, and 32.84 psu, respectively, in the condition of daily rain rate higher than 1 mm/hr. In contrast to the rainfall condition, the average values of SSS are 34.07 psu, 34.26 psu, and 33.09 psu in the three areas, respectively at no rain condition (rain rate less than 1 mm/hr). During the cases of heavy rainfall caused by spiral rain bands of typhoon, the SSS is diluted with an average value of -0.78 psu when the average rain rate is higher than 4 mm/hr. However, the SSS was increased after temporarily decreased during the typhoon cases. A possible reason to explain this phenomenon is that the heavy rainfall caused by the spiral rain bands of typhoon may dilute the sea surface water, but the strong winds can uplift the higher salinity of subsurface water to the sea surface.

Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

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Natalie Melissa McLean

2015-01-01

Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nana Zhao

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

Rainfall Stochastic models

Science.gov (United States)

Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

2012-04-01

This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

The effects of extreme rainfall events on carbon release from Biological Soil Crusts covered soil in fixed sand dunes in the Tengger Desert, northern China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yang; Li, Xinrong; Pan, Yanxia; Hui, Rong

2016-04-01

How soil cover types and extreme rainfall event influence carbon (C) release in temperate desert ecosystems has largely been unexplored. We assessed the effects of extreme rainfall (quantity and intensity) events on the carbon release from soils covered by different types of biological soil crusts (BSCs) in fixed sand dunes in the Tengger Desert, Shapotou regionof northern China. We removed intact crusts down to 10 cm and measured them in PVC mesocosms. A Li-6400-09 Soil Chamber was used to measure the respiration rates of the BSCs immediately after the rainfall stopped, and continued until the respiration rates of the BSCs returned to the pre-rainfall basal rate. Our results showed that almost immediately after extreme rainfall events the respiration rates of algae crust and mixed crust were significantly inhibited, but moss crust was not significantly affected. The respiration rates of algae crust, mixed crust, and moss crust in extreme rainfall quantity and intensity events were, respectively, 0.12 and 0.41 μmolCO2/(m2•s), 0.10 and 0.45 μmolCO2/(m2•s), 0.83 and 1.69 μmolCO2/(m2•s). Our study indicated that moss crust in the advanced succession stage can well adapt to extreme rainfall events in the short term. Keywords: carbon release; extreme rainfall events; biological soil crust

Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Brigandì

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Su-Hong; Gong Yan-Chun; Huang Yan-Hua; Wu Cheng-Guo; Feng Tai-Chen; Gong Zhi-Qiang

2014-01-01

A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971–2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization (ES). Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay (1 ≤ n ≤ 10). The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay (2 ≤ n ≤ 10). The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

Science.gov (United States)

Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

2015-04-01

Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

Towards new information resources for public health--from WordNet to MedicalWordNet.

Science.gov (United States)

Fellbaum, Christiane; Hahn, Udo; Smith, Barry

2006-06-01

In the last two decades, WordNet has evolved as the most comprehensive computational lexicon of general English. In this article, we discuss its potential for supporting the creation of an entirely new kind of information resource for public health, viz. MedicalWordNet. This resource is not to be conceived merely as a lexical extension of the original WordNet to medical terminology; indeed, there is already a considerable degree of overlap between WordNet and the vocabulary of medicine. Instead, we propose a new type of repository, consisting of three large collections of (1) medically relevant word forms, structured along the lines of the existing Princeton WordNet; (2) medically validated propositions, referred to here as medical facts, which will constitute what we shall call MedicalFactNet; and (3) propositions reflecting laypersons' medical beliefs, which will constitute what we shall call the MedicalBeliefNet. We introduce a methodology for setting up the MedicalWordNet. We then turn to the discussion of research challenges that have to be met to build this new type of information resource. We build a database of sentences relevant to the medical domain. The sentences are generated from WordNet via its relations as well as from medical statements broken down into elementary propositions. Two subcorpora of sentences are distinguished, MedicalBeliefNet and MedicalFactNet. The former is rated for assent by laypersons; the latter for correctness by medical experts. The sentence corpora will be valuable for a variety of applications in information retrieval as well as in research in linguistics and psychology with respect to the study of expert and non-expert beliefs and their linguistic expressions. Our work has to meet several considerable challenges. These include accounting for the distinction between medical experts and laypersons, the social issues of expert-layperson communication in different media, the linguistic aspects of encoding medical knowledge, and

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain Using Analogue Meteorological Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

B. Faybishenko

2006-01-01

At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes

Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

Science.gov (United States)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

2018-04-01

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set

Impact of Erratic Rainfall from Climate Change on Pulse Production Efficiency in Lower Myanmar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sein Mar

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Erratic rainfall has a detrimental impact on crop productivity but rainfall during the specific growth stage is rarely used in efficiency analysis. This study focuses on this untapped point and examines the influence of rainfall specifically encountered during the sowing stage and early vegetative growth stage and the flowering stage of pulses on productivity and efficiency in Lower Myanmar using data from 182 sample farmers. The results of a stochastic frontier production function reveal that rainfall incidence during the flowering season of pulses has a negatively significant effect on yield while replanting crops after serious damage by rain increases productivity. Controlled rainfall variables, seed rate, human labor and land preparation cost are important parameters influencing pulses yield. In the efficiency model, levels of yield loss have a negative impact while being a male household head, access to government credit, access to training, locating farms in the Bago Region and possessing a large area of pulses have a positively significant effect on technical efficiency. Policy recommendations include the establishment of a safety network, such as crop insurance to protect farmers from losses due to unpredictable weather conditions, promoting training programs on cultural practices adapted to climate change, wide coverage of extension activities, giving priority to small-scale farmers and female farmer participation in training and extension activities and increasing the rate of credit availability to farmers.

Net Gain: A New Method for Preventing Malaria Deaths | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

A finely spun net could prevent as many as one-third of all child deaths in Africa, reports IDRC's new publication, Net Gain. Studies conducted in Gambia, Ghana, and Kenya show that the insecticide-treated mosquito net reduced the mortality rate of children under 5 years of age by up to 63 percent. Net Gain reviews and ...

[Monitoring and analysis on evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality in urban area].

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Wen; Li, Huai-En; Li, Jia-Ke

2013-02-01

In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011, and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed: 1. the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; 2. the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; 3. the runoff water quality of the short early fine days was better than that of long early fine days, and the last runoff water quality was better than that of the initial runoff in the same rainfall process; 4. the concentration reduction of the grassland was notable, and the reduction rate of the grassland which is 1.0 meter wide of the roof runoff pollutants such as COD and nitrogen reached 30%.

Set-up and calibration of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator for soil erosion studies

Science.gov (United States)

Lassu, T.; Seeger, M.

2012-04-01

Rainfall simulation is one of the most prevalent methods used in soil erosion studies on agricultural land. In-situ simulators have been used to relate soil surface characteristics and management to runoff generation, infiltration and erosion, eg. the influence of different cultivation systems, and to parameterise erosion models. Laboratory rainfall simulators have been used to determine the impact of the soil surface characteristics such as micro-topography, surface roughness, and soil chemistry on infiltration and erosion rates, and to elucidate the processes involved. The purpose of the following study is to demonstrate the set-up and the calibration of a large indoor, nozzle-type rainfall simulator (RS) for soil erosion, surface runoff and rill development studies. This RS is part of the Kraijenhoff van de Leur Laboratory for Water and Sediment Dynamics in Wageningen University. The rainfall simulator consists from a 6 m long and 2,5 m wide plot, with metal lateral frame and one open side. Infiltration can be collected in different segments. The plot can be inclined up to 15.5° slope. From 3,85 m height above the plot 2 Lechler nozzles 460.788 are sprinkling the water onto the surface with constant intensity. A Zehnder HMP 450 pump provides the constant water supply. An automatic pressure switch on the pump keeps the pressure constant during the experiments. The flow rate is controlled for each nozzle by independent valves. Additionally, solenoid valves are mounted at each nozzle to interrupt water flow. The flow is monitored for each nozzle with flow meters and can be recorded within the computer network. For calibration of the RS we measured the rainfall distribution with 60 gauges equally distributed over the plot during 15 minutes for each nozzle independently and for a combination of 2 identical nozzles. The rainfall energy was recorded on the same grid by measuring drop size distribution and fall velocity with a laser disdrometer. We applied 2 different

Experimental Investigation of Rainfall Impact on Overland Flow Driven Erosion Processes and Flow Hydrodynamics on a Steep Hillslope

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, P.; Xu, X.; Pan, C.; Hsu, K. L.; Yang, T.

2016-12-01

Few attempts have been made to investigate the quantitative effects of rainfall on overland flow driven erosion processes and flow hydrodynamics on steep hillslopes under field conditions. Field experiments were performed in flows for six inflow rates (q: 6-36 Lmin-1m-1) with and without rainfall (60 mm h-1) on a steep slope (26°) to investigate: (1) the quantitative effects of rainfall on runoff and sediment yield processes, and flow hydrodynamics; (2) the effect of interaction between rainfall and overland flow on soil loss. Results showed that the rainfall increased runoff coefficients and the fluctuation of temporal variations in runoff. The rainfall significantly increased soil loss (10.6-68.0%), but this increment declined as q increased. When the interrill erosion dominated (q=6 Lmin-1m-1), the increment in the rill erosion was 1.5 times that in the interrill erosion, and the effect of the interaction on soil loss was negative. When the rill erosion dominated (q=6-36 Lmin-1m-1), the increment in the interrill erosion was 1.7-8.8 times that in the rill erosion, and the effect of the interaction on soil loss became positive. The rainfall was conducive to the development of rills especially for low inflow rates. The rainfall always decreased interrill flow velocity, decreased rill flow velocity (q=6-24 Lmin-1m-1), and enhanced the spatial uniformity of the velocity distribution. Under rainfall disturbance, flow depth, Reynolds number (Re) and resistance were increased but Froude number was reduced, and lower Re was needed to transform a laminar flow to turbulent flow. The rainfall significantly increased flow shear stress (τ) and stream power (φ), with the most sensitive parameters to sediment yield being τ (R2=0.994) and φ (R2=0.993), respectively, for non-rainfall and rainfall conditions. Compared to non-rainfall conditions, there was a reduction in the critical hydrodynamic parameters of mean flow velocity, τ, and φ by the rainfall. These findings

Variability of rainfall over small areas

Science.gov (United States)

Runnels, R. C.

1983-01-01

A preliminary investigation was made to determine estimates of the number of raingauges needed in order to measure the variability of rainfall in time and space over small areas (approximately 40 sq miles). The literature on rainfall variability was examined and the types of empirical relationships used to relate rainfall variations to meteorological and catchment-area characteristics were considered. Relations between the coefficient of variation and areal-mean rainfall and area have been used by several investigators. These parameters seemed reasonable ones to use in any future study of rainfall variations. From a knowledge of an appropriate coefficient of variation (determined by the above-mentioned relations) the number rain gauges needed for the precise determination of areal-mean rainfall may be calculated by statistical estimation theory. The number gauges needed to measure the coefficient of variation over a 40 sq miles area, with varying degrees of error, was found to range from 264 (10% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in) to about 2 (100% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in).

Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

2017-08-01

Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto

2013-04-01

Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed

Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

2012-04-01

Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie-Hao Chen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR model by 5.80%.

Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

THE APPLICATION OF BŰHLMANN-STRAUB MODEL TO THE ESTIMATION OF NET PREMIUM RATES DEPENDING ON THE AGE OF THE INSURED IN THE MOTOR THIRD LIABILITY INSURANCE

OpenAIRE

Szymańska, Anna

2017-01-01

One of the basic variables used in the process of tariff calculation of premiums in motor liability insurance is the age of the insured. In this type of insurance offered by insurers operating on the Polish market, this variable is taken into account in the ratemaking by discounts and increases in assigned premium, known as the net premiums rates. The aim of this work is to propose a method of rate estimation of net premiums in the groups of the motor third liability insurance portfolio of in...

Analytical solutions to sampling effects in drop size distribution measurements during stationary rainfall: Estimation of bulk rainfall variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uijlenhoet, R.; Porrà, J.M.; Sempere Torres, D.; Creutin, J.D.

2006-01-01

A stochastic model of the microstructure of rainfall is used to derive explicit expressions for the magnitude of the sampling fluctuations in rainfall properties estimated from raindrop size measurements in stationary rainfall. The model is a marked point process, in which the points represent the

Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jury, Mark R.

2018-05-01

This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user1

extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

Increased Ratio of Electron Transport to Net Assimilation Rate Supports Elevated Isoprenoid Emission Rate in Eucalypts under Drought1[W][OPEN

Science.gov (United States)

Dani, Kaidala Ganesha Srikanta; Jamie, Ian McLeod; Prentice, Iain Colin; Atwell, Brian James

2014-01-01

Plants undergoing heat and low-CO2 stresses emit large amounts of volatile isoprenoids compared with those in stress-free conditions. One hypothesis posits that the balance between reducing power availability and its use in carbon assimilation determines constitutive isoprenoid emission rates in plants and potentially even their maximum emission capacity under brief periods of stress. To test this, we used abiotic stresses to manipulate the availability of reducing power. Specifically, we examined the effects of mild to severe drought on photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) and net carbon assimilation rate (NAR) and the relationship between estimated energy pools and constitutive volatile isoprenoid emission rates in two species of eucalypts: Eucalyptus occidentalis (drought tolerant) and Eucalyptus camaldulensis (drought sensitive). Isoprenoid emission rates were insensitive to mild drought, and the rates increased when the decline in NAR reached a certain species-specific threshold. ETR was sustained under drought and the ETR-NAR ratio increased, driving constitutive isoprenoid emission until severe drought caused carbon limitation of the methylerythritol phosphate pathway. The estimated residual reducing power unused for carbon assimilation, based on the energetic status model, significantly correlated with constitutive isoprenoid emission rates across gradients of drought (r2 > 0.8) and photorespiratory stress (r2 > 0.9). Carbon availability could critically limit emission rates under severe drought and photorespiratory stresses. Under most instances of moderate abiotic stress levels, increased isoprenoid emission rates compete with photorespiration for the residual reducing power not invested in carbon assimilation. A similar mechanism also explains the individual positive effects of low-CO2, heat, and drought stresses on isoprenoid emission. PMID:25139160

Effect Of Seasonal Rainfall And Other Environmental Changes, On ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: The last study on snail population density in relation to rainfall pattern in Kigungu canoe landing and recreational sites on Lake Victoria shore was earlier carried out about fifteen years ago. This study also reviewed the influence of other environmental factors on the snails\\' infection rate. Objective: To reassess ...

Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

2015-01-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

Extreme value analysis of rainfall data for Kalpakkam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, Pramod Kumar; John Arul, A.; Ramkrishnan, M.; Bhuvana, V.

2016-01-01

Flood hazard evaluation is an important safety study for a Nuclear Power Plant. In the present study flood hazard at PFBR site due to rainfall is evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment is daily annual maximum rainfall (24 hrs data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law, and exponential distribution and return period has been estimated. The predicted 100 yrs return period rainfall for Kalpakkam ranges from 240 mm to 365 mm in a day and 1000 yrs return period rainfall ranges from 320 mm to 790 min in a day. To study the stationarity of rainfall data a moving window estimate of the parameters (exponential distribution) have also been performed. (author)

A simulation of rainfall infiltration based on two-phase flow

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jun; Xi, Niannian; Liu, Gang; Hao, Shuang

2016-04-01

Rainfall infiltration in slope usually is one of major reasons cause landslide, which involves multiphase flow coupling with soil, water and gas. In order to study the mechanism of landslide caused by rainfall infiltration, a simulation of rainfall infiltration of DaPing slope, which locates in the Three Gorges Region of China, is presented based on the numerical solution of governing equations of two-phase flow in this paper. The results of this research suggest that there are two sections can be divided in the surface of slope, one is inflow area and the other is overflow area, according to where it is infiltration and discharge. The general inflow area is on the upside of slope, while the overflow area is on the underside. The middle section of slope is on a fluctuant position between inflow and overflow area, which is dramatically affected by the water content inside of slope. Moreover, the average rate of infiltration is more stable in both inflow and overflow area, whose numerical value is depend on the geometry and transmission characteristics of slope. And the factors of rainfall characteristics, surface flow and temperature have little effect on them. Furthermore, in the inflow area, when rainfall intensity is higher than infiltration the rain on the surface of slope will run off, otherwise water and gas will completely infiltrate through soil. The situation is different in the overflow area whose overland flow condition is depended on whether it is saturated or not inside of slope. When it is saturated in the slope, there is no infiltration in the overflow area. But when it is unsaturated, the infiltration intensity will equal to rainfall intensity. In a summary, the difference from inflow and overflow area is the evidence that the landslide may likely to happen on the slope of overflow area when it comes to a rainfall. It is disadvantageous for slope stability when transmitting the pressure of saturated water weight at the top of slope through the pore

Use of a large-scale rainfall simulator reveals novel insights into stemflow generation

Science.gov (United States)

Levia, D. F., Jr.; Iida, S. I.; Nanko, K.; Sun, X.; Shinohara, Y.; Sakai, N.

2017-12-01

Detailed knowledge of stemflow generation and its effects on both hydrological and biogoechemical cycling is important to achieve a holistic understanding of forest ecosystems. Field studies and a smaller set of experiments performed under laboratory conditions have increased our process-based knowledge of stemflow production. Building upon these earlier works, a large-scale rainfall simulator was employed to deepen our understanding of stemflow generation processes. The use of the large-scale rainfall simulator provides a unique opportunity to examine a range of rainfall intensities under constant conditions that are difficult under natural conditions due to the variable nature of rainfall intensities in the field. Stemflow generation and production was examined for three species- Cryptomeria japonica D. Don (Japanese cedar), Chamaecyparis obtusa (Siebold & Zucc.) Endl. (Japanese cypress), Zelkova serrata Thunb. (Japanese zelkova)- under both leafed and leafless conditions at several different rainfall intensities (15, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 100 mm h-1) using a large-scale rainfall simulator in National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (Tsukuba, Japan). Stemflow production and rates and funneling ratios were examined in relation to both rainfall intensity and canopy structure. Preliminary results indicate a dynamic and complex response of the funneling ratios of individual trees to different rainfall intensities among the species examined. This is partly the result of different canopy structures, hydrophobicity of vegetative surfaces, and differential wet-up processes across species and rainfall intensities. This presentation delves into these differences and attempts to distill them into generalizable patterns, which can advance our theories of stemflow generation processes and ultimately permit better stewardship of forest resources. ________________ Funding note: This research was supported by JSPS Invitation Fellowship for Research in

Setting a price for solar net-metering in California

OpenAIRE

Knezevic, Laura M

2014-01-01

Net-metering programs are an effective policy tool for promoting investment in solar photovoltaics, yet little attention has been paid to the rate at which excess energy generation is credited until recently. Like most States, California customers who participate in net-metering receive a credit for excess generation at the current retail rate for electricity. This buy-back rate does not take into account the value of solar energy to the utility or the costs to the customer of purchasing an...

Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

2010-01-01

Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

Underwater Acoustic Measurements to Estimate Wind and Rainfall in the Mediterranean Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Pensieri

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Oceanic ambient noise measurements can be analyzed to obtain qualitative and quantitative information about wind and rainfall phenomena over the ocean filling the existing gap of reliable meteorological observations at sea. The Ligurian Sea Acoustic Experiment was designed to collect long-term synergistic observations from a passive acoustic recorder and surface sensors (i.e., buoy mounted rain gauge and anemometer and weather radar to support error analysis of rainfall rate and wind speed quantification techniques developed in past studies. The study period included combination of high and low wind and rainfall episodes and two storm events that caused two floods in the vicinity of La Spezia and in the city of Genoa in 2011. The availability of high resolution in situ meteorological data allows improving data processing technique to detect and especially to provide effective estimates of wind and rainfall at sea. Results show a very good correspondence between estimates provided by passive acoustic recorder algorithm and in situ observations for both rainfall and wind phenomena and demonstrate the potential of using measurements provided by passive acoustic instruments in open sea for early warning of approaching coastal storms, which for the Mediterranean coastal areas constitutes one of the main causes of recurrent floods.

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-06-15

While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

Productive vegetation: relationships between net primary productivity, vegetation types and climate change in the Wet Tropics bioregion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramirez, Vanessa Valdez; Williams, Stephen E.; VanDerWal, Jeremy

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: There is now ample evidence demonstrating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and human society (Walther ef a/. 2002). Numerous studies have shown climate change is one of the most significant threats to tropical forests, such as the Wet Tropics Heritage Area, due to their high biodiversity and endemism (Pounds ef al. 1999; Hughes 2000; Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Williams ef al. (2003) suggested that small shifts in net primary productivity (NPP) as a result of climate change could lead to potentially massive follow-on effects for the extremely diverse and vulnerable rainforest flora and fauna. It is therefore crucial to explore the relationships between NPP and local biodiversity, especially to create models for different climate change scenarios. Nevertheless, NPP in the Wet Tropics has yet to be estimated. This is the first study to provide a general NPP estimate for the Wet Tropics bioregion using climate surrogates (Schuur 2003). This technique estimates NPP in an accurate, repeatable, and cost-effective way. NPP values were linked to vegetation types and examined under various climatic and environmental conditions. Results show a significant difference in productivity according to vegetation types and climatic variables, with temperature and rainfall seasonality as the most important determining variables. Additionally, lowland and upland vegetations showed a significant difference in productivity patterns throughout the year. Vegetation types located above 1000 metres in altitude had the lowest values of mean annual productivity due to their high rainfall and low temperatures; vegetation types located below 600 metres showed increased productivity values during the wet season (December-March). Net primary productivity will certainly be impacted by changes in temperature and rainfall, due to climate change. Although an increase in NPP values can be predicted for upland areas, the more widely distributed lowlands will drastically

Efficacy of PermaNet® 2.0 and PermaNet® 3.0 against insecticide-resistant Anopheles gambiae in experimental huts in Côte d'Ivoire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koffi Alphonsine A

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Pyrethroid resistance in vectors could limit the efficacy of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs because all LLINs are currently treated with pyrethroids. The goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and wash resistance of PermaNet® 3.0 compared to PermaNet® 2.0 in an area of high pyrethroid in Côte d'Ivoire. PermaNet® 3.0 is impregnated with deltamethrin at 85 mg/m2 on the sides of the net and with deltamethrin and piperonyl butoxide on the roof. PermaNet® 2.0 is impregnated with deltamethrin at 55 mg/m2 across the entire net. Methods The study was conducted in the station of Yaokoffikro, in central Côte d'Ivoire. The efficacy of intact unwashed and washed LLINs was compared over a 12-week period with a conventionally-treated net (CTN washed to just before exhaustion. WHO cone bioassays were performed on sub-sections of the nets, using wild-resistant An. gambiae and Kisumu strains. Mosquitoes were collected five days per week and were identified to genus and species level and classified as dead or alive, then unfed or blood-fed. Results Mortality rates of over 80% from cone bioassays with wild-caught pyrethroid-resistant An. gambiae s.s were recorded only with unwashed PermaNet® 3.0. Over 12 weeks, a total of 7,291 mosquitoes were collected. There were significantly more An. gambiae s.s. and Culex spp. caught in control huts than with other treatments (P An. gambiae s.s and Culex spp, were lower for the control than for other treatments (P 0.05 except for unwashed PermaNet® 3.0 (P Conclusions This study showed that unwashed PermaNet® 3.0 caused significantly higher mortality against pyrethroid resistant An. gambiae s.s and Culex spp than PermaNet® 2.0 and the CTN. The increased efficacy with unwashed PermaNet® 3.0 over PermaNet® 2.0 and the CTN was also demonstrated by higher KD and mortality rates (KD > 95% and mortality rate > 80% in cone bioassays performed with wild pyrethroid-resistant An. gambiae s

Regional frequency analysis of short duration rainfall extremes using gridded daily rainfall data as co-variate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, H.; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

with daily measurements. The Poisson rate is positively correlated to the mean annual precipitation for all durations considered (1 min to 48 hours). The mean intensity can be assumed constant over Denmark for durations up to 1 hour. For durations larger than 1 hour the mean intensity is significantly...... correlated to the mean extreme daily precipitation. A Generalised Pareto distribution with a regional constant shape parameter is adopted. Compared to previous regional studies in Denmark a general increase in extreme rainfall intensity for durations up to 1 hour is found, whereas for larger durations both...

Evolution of rainfall in the Sahel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diallo, M.A.

1995-09-01

In this note, a number of main meteorological stations has been chosen to analyse the rainfall during the last 30 years in the Sahel (1961 to 1990). Reliable climatological data have been used for this study. The concerned area is limited by the 200 mm isohyet in the north and 600 mm isohyet in the south in the Sahel countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad). The evolution of rainfall has pointed out some similar and significant aspects for all stations studied. Established criteria have been used to characterize the annual rainfall and to determine the years with good rainfall and years of drought in the Sahel. (author). 6 refs, 3 figs

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

Science.gov (United States)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

Net-infiltration map of the Navajo Sandstone outcrop area in western Washington County, Utah

Science.gov (United States)

Heilweil, Victor M.; McKinney, Tim S.

2007-01-01

As populations grow in the arid southwestern United States and desert bedrock aquifers are increasingly targeted for future development, understanding and quantifying the spatial variability of net infiltration and recharge becomes critically important for inventorying groundwater resources and mapping contamination vulnerability. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based model utilizing readily available soils, topographic, precipitation, and outcrop data has been developed for predicting net infiltration to exposed and soil-covered areas of the Navajo Sandstone outcrop of southwestern Utah. The Navajo Sandstone is an important regional bedrock aquifer. The GIS model determines the net-infiltration percentage of precipitation by using an empirical equation. This relation is derived from least squares linear regression between three surficial parameters (soil coarseness, topographic slope, and downgradient distance from outcrop) and the percentage of estimated net infiltration based on environmental tracer data from excavations and boreholes at Sand Hollow Reservoir in the southeastern part of the study area.Processed GIS raster layers are applied as parameters in the empirical equation for determining net infiltration for soil-covered areas as a percentage of precipitation. This net-infiltration percentage is multiplied by average annual Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation data to obtain an infiltration rate for each model cell. Additionally, net infiltration on exposed outcrop areas is set to 10 percent of precipitation on the basis of borehole net-infiltration estimates. Soils and outcrop net-infiltration rates are merged to form a final map.Areas of low, medium, and high potential for ground-water recharge have been identified, and estimates of net infiltration range from 0.1 to 66 millimeters per year (mm/yr). Estimated net-infiltration rates of less than 10 mm/yr are considered low, rates of 10 to 50 mm/yr are

Determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayorga Marquez, Ruth

2003-01-01

Considering that rainfall is the natural event that more often triggers landslides, it is important to study the relationship between this phenomenon and the occurrence of earth mass movements, by determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in different zones of Colombia. The research presents a methodology that allows proposing rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia, by means of a relationship between the accumulated rain in the soil (antecedent rainfall) and the rain that falls the day of the landslide occurrence (event rainfall)

Horizontal ichthyoplankton tow-net system with unobstructed net opening

Science.gov (United States)

Nester, Robert T.

1987-01-01

The larval fish sampler described here consists of a modified bridle, frame, and net system with an obstruction-free net opening and is small enough for use on boats 10 m or less in length. The tow net features a square net frame attached to a 0.5-m-diameter cylinder-on-cone plankton net with a bridle designed to eliminate all obstructions forward of the net opening, significantly reducing currents and vibrations in the water directly preceding the net. This system was effective in collecting larvae representing more than 25 species of fish at sampling depths ranging from surface to 10 m and could easily be used at greater depths.

The development rainfall forecasting using kalman filter

Science.gov (United States)

Zulfi, Mohammad; Hasan, Moh.; Dwidja Purnomo, Kosala

2018-04-01

Rainfall forecasting is very interesting for agricultural planing. Rainfall information is useful to make decisions about the plan planting certain commodities. In this studies, the rainfall forecasting by ARIMA and Kalman Filter method. Kalman Filter method is used to declare a time series model of which is shown in the form of linear state space to determine the future forecast. This method used a recursive solution to minimize error. The rainfall data in this research clustered by K-means clustering. Implementation of Kalman Filter method is for modelling and forecasting rainfall in each cluster. We used ARIMA (p,d,q) to construct a state space for KalmanFilter model. So, we have four group of the data and one model in each group. In conclusions, Kalman Filter method is better than ARIMA model for rainfall forecasting in each group. It can be showed from error of Kalman Filter method that smaller than error of ARIMA model.

Valuing ecosystem services. A shadow price for net primary production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richmond, Amy; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Myneni, Ranga B.

2007-01-01

We analyze the contribution of ecosystem services to GDP and use this contribution to calculate an empirical price for ecosystem services. Net primary production is used as a proxy for ecosystem services and, along with capital and labor, is used to estimate a Cobb Douglas production function from an international panel. A positive output elasticity for net primary production probably measures both marketed and nonmarketed contributions of ecosystems services. The production function is used to calculate the marginal product of net primary production, which is the shadow price for ecosystem services. The shadow price generally is greatest for developed nations, which have larger technical scalars and use less net primary production per unit output. The rate of technical substitution indicates that the quantity of capital needed to replace a unit of net primary production tends to increase with economic development, and this rate of replacement may ultimately constrain economic growth. (author)

Business Profile of Boat Lift Net and Stationary Lift Net Fishing Gear in Morodemak Waters Central Java

Science.gov (United States)

Hapsari, Trisnani D.; Jayanto, Bogi B.; Fitri, Aristi D. P.; Triarso, I.

2018-02-01

Lift net is one of the fishing gears that is used widely in the Morodemak coastal fishing port (PPP) for catching pelagic fish. The yield of fish captured by these fishing gear has high economic value, such as fish belt (Trichiurus sp), squids (Loligo sp) and anchovies (Stelophorus sp). The aims of this research were to determine the technical aspects of boat lift net and stationary lift net fishing gear in Morodemak Waters Demak Regency; to find out the financial aspect of those fishing gears and to analyze the financial feasibility by counting PP, NPV, IRR, and B/C ratio criteria. This research used case study method with descriptive analysis. The sampling method was purposive sampling with 22 fishermen as respondents. The result of the research showed that the average of boat lift net acceptance was Rp 388,580,000. The financial analysis of fisheries boat lift net with the result of NPV Rp 836,149,272, PP 2.44 years, IRR value 54%, and B/C ratio 1.73. The average of stationary lift net acceptance was Rp 27,750,000. The financial analysis lift net with the result of NPV Rp 37,937,601; PP 1.96 years, IRR value 86%, and B/C ratio 1.32. This research had a positive NPV value, B/C ratio >1, and IRR > discount rate (12 %). This study concluded that the fishery business of boat lift net and stationary lift net in Morodemak coastal fishing port (PPP) was worth running.

Higher-moment measurements of net-kaon, net-charge and net-proton multiplicity distributions at STAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarkar, Amal

2014-01-01

In this paper, we report the measurements of the various moments, such as mean, standard deviation (σ), skewness (S) and kurtosis (κ) of the net-kaon, net-charge and net-proton multiplicity distributions at mid-rapidity in Au + Au collisions from √(s NN )=7.7 to 200 GeV with the STAR experiment at RHIC. This work has been done with the aim to locate the critical point on the QCD phase diagram. These moments and their products are related to the thermodynamic susceptibilities of conserved quantities such as net baryon number, net charge, and net strangeness as well as to the correlation length of the system which diverges in an ideal infinite thermodynamic system at the critical point. For a finite system, existing for a finite time, a non-monotonic behavior of these variables would indicate the presence of the critical point. Furthermore, we also present the moment products Sσ, κσ 2 of net-kaon, net-charge and net-proton multiplicity distributions as a function of collision centrality and energy. The energy and the centrality dependence of higher moments and their products have been compared with different models

Video studies of passage by Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes through holes in a simulated bed net: effects of hole size, hole orientation and net environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutcliffe, James; Colborn, Kathryn L

2015-05-13

Holes in netting provide potential routes for mosquitoes to enter ITNs. Despite this, there is little information on how mosquitoes respond to holes in bed nets and how their responses are affected by hole size, shape and orientation or by ambient conditions around the net. Female Anopheles gambiae (G3) were recorded in a simulated bed net consisting of two sizes of untreated netting-covered behavioural arenas placed above and beside (to simulate the bed net roof and sides respectively) the experimenter who was a source of host cues from 'inside' the net. A round hole of 9 mm or 13 mm diameter was cut into the centre of the netting of each arena. Videos of unfed female mosquitoes in arenas were analysed for time spent flying, walking and standing still and for exit through the hole. The effects of the experimenter on temperature and relative humidity around the simulated net were also measured. Mosquitoes were significantly more active in overhead arenas than in arenas to the side. Hole passage was significantly more likely in smaller arenas than larger ones and for larger holes than smaller ones. In arenas to the side, hole passage rate through small holes was about 50% less likely than what could be explained by area alone. Passage rate through holes in overhead arenas was consistent with hole area. Temperature in arenas did not strongly reflect the experimenter's presence in the simulated net. Relative humidity and absolute humidity in overhead arenas, but not in arenas to the side, were immediately affected by experimenter presence. Higher levels of activity in overhead arenas than in arenas to the side were likely due to the rising heat and humidity plume from the experimenter. Lower than expected passage rates through smaller vertically oriented holes may have been be due to an edge effect that does not apply to horizontally oriented holes. Results suggest that current methods of assessing the importance of physical damage to ITNs may not accurately reflect

Stability analysis of unsaturated soil slope during rainfall infiltration using coupled liquid-gas-solid three-phase model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dong-mei Sun

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Generally, most soil slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration, a process that involves interactions between the liquid phase, gas phase, and solid skeleton in an unsaturated soil slope. In this study, a loosely coupled liquid-gas-solid three-phase model, linking two numerical codes, TOUGH2/EOS3, which is used for water-air two-phase flow analysis, and FLAC3D, which is used for mechanical analysis, was established. The model was validated through a documented water drainage experiment over a sandy column and a comparison of the results with measured data and simulated results from other researchers. The proposed model was used to investigate the features of water-air two-phase flow and stress fields in an unsaturated soil slope during rainfall infiltration. The slope stability analysis was then performed based on the simulated water-air two-phase seepage and stress fields on a given slip surface. The results show that the safety factor for the given slip surface decreases first, then increases, and later decreases until the rainfall stops. Subsequently, a sudden rise occurs. After that, the safety factor decreases continually and reaches its lowest value, and then increases slowly to a steady value. The lowest value does not occur when the rainfall stops, indicating a delayed effect of the safety factor. The variations of the safety factor for the given slip surface are therefore caused by a combination of pore-air pressure, matric suction, normal stress, and net normal stress.

Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

2010-05-01

Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

A small single-nozzle rainfall simulator to measure erosion response on different burn severities in southern British Columbia, Canada

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Covert, Ashley; Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

To study the effects of wildfire burn severity on runoff generation and soil erosion from high intensity rainfall, we constructed an effective yet simple rainfall simulator that was inexpensive, portable and easily operated by two people on steep, forested slopes in southern British Columbia, Canada. The entire apparatus, including simulator, pumps, hoses, collapsible water bladders and sample bottles, was designed to fit into a single full-sized pick-up truck. The three-legged simulator extended to approximately 3.3 metres above ground on steep slopes and used a single Spraying Systems 1/2HH-30WSQ nozzle which can easily be interchanged for other sized nozzles. Rainfall characteristics were measured using a digital camera which took images of the raindrops against a grid. Median drop size and velocity 5 cm above ground were measured and found to be 3/4 of the size of natural rain drops of that diameter class, and fell 7% faster than terminal velocity. The simulator was used for experiments on runoff and erosion on sites burned in 2007 by two wildfires in southern British Columbia. Simulations were repeated one and two years after the fires. Rainfall was simulated at an average rate of 67 mm hr-1 over a 1 m2 plot for 20 minutes. This rainfall rate is similar to the 100 year return period rainfall intensity for this duration at a nearby weather station. Simulations were conducted on five replicate 1 m2 plots in each experimental unit including high burn severity, moderate burn severity, unburned, and unburned with forest floor removed. During the simulation a sample was collected for 30 seconds every minute, with two additional samples until runoff ceased, resulting in 22 samples per simulation. Runoff, overland flow coefficient, infiltration and sediment yield were compared between treatments. Additional simulations were conducted immediately after a 2009 wildfire to test different mulch treatments. Typical results showed that runoff on plots with high burn

Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily

Science.gov (United States)

Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.

2015-04-01

Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis

Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

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T. P. Burt

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

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Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

2018-03-01

Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

Extreme Rainfall In A City

Science.gov (United States)

Nkemdirim, Lawrence

Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.

2016-11-01

Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain Using Analogue Meteorological Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faybishenko, Boris

2005-01-01

At Yucca Mountain, NV, future changes in climatic conditions will probably alter net infiltration, drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile, or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop a semiempirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analog meteorological stations, for interglacial(present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region; and (2) corroborate the computed net infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. This study approached calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation effectiveness indices using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate, following a power law relationship between net infiltration and precipitation. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties associated with selecting climate analog sites, using relatively short analog meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and run-on on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenically induced climate changes

Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadiq, N.

2015-01-01

Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

2017-01-01

Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

Evaluation of rainfall retrievals from SEVIRI reflectances over West Africa using TRMM-PR and CMORPH

Science.gov (United States)

Wolters, E. L. A.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Roebeling, R. A.

2011-02-01

This paper describes the evaluation of the KNMI Cloud Physical Properties - Precipitation Properties (CPP-PP) algorithm over West Africa. The algorithm combines condensed water path (CWP), cloud phase (CPH), cloud particle effective radius (re), and cloud-top temperature (CTT) retrievals from visible, near-infrared and thermal infrared observations of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites to estimate rain occurrence frequency and rain rate. For the 2005 and 2006 monsoon seasons, it is investigated whether the CPP-PP algorithm is capable of retrieving rain occurrence frequency and rain rate over West Africa with sufficient accuracy, using Tropical Monsoon Measurement Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM-PR) as reference. As a second goal, it is assessed whether SEVIRI is capable of monitoring the seasonal and daytime evolution of rainfall during the West African monsoon (WAM), using Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH) rainfall observations. The SEVIRI-detected rainfall area agrees well with TRMM-PR, with the areal extent of rainfall by SEVIRI being ~10% larger than from TRMM-PR. The mean retrieved rain rate from CPP-PP is about 8% higher than from TRMM-PR. Examination of the TRMM-PR and CPP-PP cumulative frequency distributions revealed that differences between CPP-PP and TRMM-PR are generally within +/-10%. Relative to the AMMA rain gauge observations, CPP-PP shows very good agreement up to 5 mm h-1. However, at higher rain rates (5-16 mm h-1) CPP-PP overestimates compared to the rain gauges. With respect to the second goal of this paper, it was shown that both the accumulated precipitation and the seasonal progression of rainfall throughout the WAM is in good agreement with CMORPH, although CPP-PP retrieves higher amounts in the coastal region of West Africa. Using latitudinal Hovmüller diagrams, a fair correspondence between CPP-PP and CMORPH was found, which is reflected

Evaluation of rainfall retrievals from SEVIRI reflectances over West Africa using TRMM-PR and CMORPH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. L. A. Wolters

2011-02-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the evaluation of the KNMI Cloud Physical Properties – Precipitation Properties (CPP-PP algorithm over West Africa. The algorithm combines condensed water path (CWP, cloud phase (CPH, cloud particle effective radius (r_e, and cloud-top temperature (CTT retrievals from visible, near-infrared and thermal infrared observations of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG satellites to estimate rain occurrence frequency and rain rate. For the 2005 and 2006 monsoon seasons, it is investigated whether the CPP-PP algorithm is capable of retrieving rain occurrence frequency and rain rate over West Africa with sufficient accuracy, using Tropical Monsoon Measurement Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM-PR as reference. As a second goal, it is assessed whether SEVIRI is capable of monitoring the seasonal and daytime evolution of rainfall during the West African monsoon (WAM, using Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH rainfall observations. The SEVIRI-detected rainfall area agrees well with TRMM-PR, with the areal extent of rainfall by SEVIRI being ~10% larger than from TRMM-PR. The mean retrieved rain rate from CPP-PP is about 8% higher than from TRMM-PR. Examination of the TRMM-PR and CPP-PP cumulative frequency distributions revealed that differences between CPP-PP and TRMM-PR are generally within +/−10%. Relative to the AMMA rain gauge observations, CPP-PP shows very good agreement up to 5 mm h⁻¹. However, at higher rain rates (5–16 mm h⁻¹ CPP-PP overestimates compared to the rain gauges. With respect to the second goal of this paper, it was shown that both the accumulated precipitation and the seasonal progression of rainfall throughout the WAM is in good agreement with CMORPH, although CPP-PP retrieves higher amounts in the coastal region of West Africa. Using latitudinal Hovmüller diagrams, a fair

Fitting monthly Peninsula Malaysian rainfall using Tweedie distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Yunus, R. M.; Hasan, M. M.; Zubairi, Y. Z.

2017-09-01

In this study, the Tweedie distribution was used to fit the monthly rainfall data from 24 monitoring stations of Peninsula Malaysia for the period from January, 2008 to April, 2015. The aim of the study is to determine whether the distributions within the Tweedie family fit well the monthly Malaysian rainfall data. Within the Tweedie family, the gamma distribution is generally used for fitting the rainfall totals, however the Poisson-gamma distribution is more useful to describe two important features of rainfall pattern, which are the occurrences (dry months) and the amount (wet months). First, the appropriate distribution of the monthly rainfall was identified within the Tweedie family for each station. Then, the Tweedie Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with no explanatory variable was used to model the monthly rainfall data. Graphical representation was used to assess model appropriateness. The QQ plots of quantile residuals show that the Tweedie models fit the monthly rainfall data better for majority of the stations in the west coast and mid land than those in the east coast of Peninsula. This significant finding suggests that the best fitted distribution depends on the geographical location of the monitoring station. In this paper, a simple model is developed for generating synthetic rainfall data for use in various areas, including agriculture and irrigation. We have showed that the data that were simulated using the Tweedie distribution have fairly similar frequency histogram to that of the actual data. Both the mean number of rainfall events and mean amount of rain for a month were estimated simultaneously for the case that the Poisson gamma distribution fits the data reasonably well. Thus, this work complements previous studies that fit the rainfall amount and the occurrence of rainfall events separately, each to a different distribution.

Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

2017-03-01

In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

Convective Cloud and Rainfall Processes Over the Maritime Continent: Simulation and Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Gianotti, Rebecca L.

demonstrates that: (1) moist convection strongly influences the near surface environment by mediating the incoming solar radiation and net radiation at the surface; (2) dissipation of convective cloud via rainfall plays an equally important role in the convectiveradiative feedback as the formation of that cloud; and (3) over parts of the Maritime Continent, rainfall is a product of diurnally-varying convective processes that operate at small spatial scales, on the order of 1 km. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, libraries.mit.edu/docs - docs@mit.edu)

Impacts of manure application on soil environment, rainfall use efficiency and crop biomass under dryland farming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaojuan; Jia, Zhikuan; Liang, Lianyou; Yang, Baoping; Ding, Ruixia; Nie, Junfeng; Wang, Junpeng

2016-02-12

Because of inadequate nutrient and water supply, soils are often unproductive in Northwest China. We studied the effects of manure application at low (LM 7.5  t ha(-1)), medium (MM 15 t ha(-1)), and high (HM 22.5 t ha(-1)) rates combined with fixed levels of chemical fertilizers on maize growth and rainfall use efficiency compared with chemical fertilizers (CK) under semi-arid conditions over a three-year period. HM and MM treatments could significantly increase soil water storage (0-120 cm) at tasseling stage of maize compared with LM treatment and CK (P < 0.05). Dry matter accumulation and rainfall use efficiency increased as manure application rate increasing (P < 0.05). HM treatment significantly increased rainfall use efficiency by 6.5-12.7% at big trumpeting - tasseling stage compared with LM and MM treatments. HM and MM treatments increased rainfall use efficiency by 8.6-18.1% at tasseling - grain filling stage compared with CK. There was no significant difference on biomass between HM and MM treatments at grain filling and maturity stages of maize in 2009 and 2010.

Loss of protection with insecticide-treated nets against pyrethroid-resistant Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes once nets become holed: an experimental hut study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irish SR

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An important advantage of pyrethroid-treated nets over untreated nets is that once nets become worn or holed a pyrethroid treatment will normally restore protection. The capacity of pyrethroids to kill or irritate any mosquito that comes into contact with the net and prevent penetration of holes or feeding through the sides are the main reasons why treated nets continue to provide protection despite their condition deteriorating over time. Pyrethroid resistance is a growing problem among Anopheline and Culicine mosquitoes in many parts of Africa. When mosquitoes become resistant the capacity of treated nets to provide protection might be diminished, particularly when holed. An experimental hut trial against pyrethroid-resistant Culex quinquefasciatus was therefore undertaken in southern Benin using a series of intact and holed nets, both untreated and treated, to assess any loss of protection as nets deteriorate with use and time. Results There was loss of protection when untreated nets became holed; the proportion of mosquitoes blood feeding increased from 36.2% when nets were intact to between 59.7% and 68.5% when nets were holed to differing extents. The proportion of mosquitoes blood feeding when treated nets were intact was 29.4% which increased to 43.6–57.4% when nets were holed. The greater the number of holes the greater the loss of protection regardless of whether nets were untreated or treated. Mosquito mortality in huts with untreated nets was 12.9–13.6%; treatment induced mortality was less than 12%. The exiting rate of mosquitoes into the verandas was higher in huts with intact nets. Conclusion As nets deteriorate with use and become increasingly holed the capacity of pyrethroid treatments to restore protection is greatly diminished against resistant Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes.

Estimation of Rainfall Associated with Typhoons over the Ocean Using TRMM/TMI and Numerical Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nan-Ching Yeh

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This study quantitatively estimated the precipitation associated with a typhoon in the northwestern Pacific Ocean by using a physical algorithm which included the Weather Research and Forecasting model, Radiative Transfer for TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder model, and data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM/TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI and TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR. First, a prior probability distribution function (PDF was constructed using over three million rain rate retrievals from the TRMM/PR data for the period 2002–2010 over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Subsequently, brightness temperatures for 15 typhoons that occurred over the northwestern Pacific Ocean were simulated using a microwave radiative transfer model and a conditional PDF was obtained for these typhoons. The aforementioned physical algorithm involved using a posterior PDF. A posterior PDF was obtained by combining the prior and conditional PDFs. Finally, the rain rate associated with a typhoon was estimated by inputting the observations of the TMI (attenuation indices at 10, 19, 37 GHz into the posterior PDF (lookup table. Results based on rain rate retrievals indicated that rainband locations with the heaviest rainfall showed qualitatively similar horizontal distributions. The correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error of the rain rate estimation were 0.63 and 4.45 mm·h−1, respectively. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error for convective rainfall were 0.78 and 7.25 mm·h−1, respectively, and those for stratiform rainfall were 0.58 and 9.60 mm·h−1, respectively. The main contribution of this study is introducing an approach to quickly and accurately estimate the typhoon precipitation, and remove the need for complex calculations.

Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

2016-04-01

Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

Sediment yield during typhoon events in relation to landslides, rainfall, and catchment areas in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chi-Wen; Oguchi, Takashi; Hayakawa, Yuichi S.; Saito, Hitoshi; Chen, Hongey; Lin, Guan-Wei; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chao, Yi-Chiung

2018-02-01

Debris sourced from landslides will result in environmental problems such as increased sediment discharge in rivers. This study analyzed the sediment discharge of 17 main rivers in Taiwan during 14 typhoon events, selected from the catchment area and river length, that caused landslides according to government reports. The measured suspended sediment and water discharge, collected from hydrometric stations of the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan, were used to establish rating-curve relationships, a power-law relation between them. Then sediment discharge during typhoon events was estimated using the rating-curve method and the measured data of daily water discharge. Positive correlations between sediment discharge and rainfall conditions for each river indicate that sediment discharge increases when a greater amount of rainfall or a higher intensity of rainfall falls during a typhoon event. In addition, the amount of sediment discharge during a typhoon event is mainly controlled by the total amount of rainfall, not by peak rainfall. Differences in correlation equations among the rivers suggest that catchments with larger areas produce more sediment. Catchments with relatively low sediment discharge show more distinct increases in sediment discharge in response to increases in rainfall, owing to the little opportunity for deposition in small catchments with high connectivity to rivers and the transportation of the majority of landslide debris to rivers during typhoon events. Also, differences in geomorphic and geologic conditions among catchments around Taiwan lead to a variety of suspended sediment dynamics and the sediment budget. Positive correlation between average sediment discharge and average area of landslides during typhoon events indicates that when larger landslides are caused by heavier rainfall during a typhoon event, more loose materials from the most recent landslide debris are flushed into rivers, resulting in higher sediment discharge. The high

Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering t...

Modelling rainfall interception by a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Schellekens, J.; Scatena, F. N.; Bruijnzeel, L. A.; Wickel, A. J.

1999-12-01

Recent surveys of tropical forest water use suggest that rainfall interception by the canopy is largest in wet maritime locations. To investigate the underlying processes at one such location—the Luquillo Experimental Forest in eastern Puerto Rico—66 days of detailed throughfall and above-canopy climatic data were collected in 1996 and analysed using the Rutter and Gash models of rainfall interception. Throughfall occurred on 80% of the days distributed over 80 rainfall events. Measured interception loss was 50% of gross precipitation. When Penman-Monteith based estimates for the wet canopy evaporation rate (0.11 mm h -1 on average) and a canopy storage of 1.15 mm were used, both models severely underestimated measured interception loss. A detailed analysis of four storms using the Rutter model showed that optimizing the model for the wet canopy evaporation component yielded much better results than increasing the canopy storage capacity. However, the Rutter model failed to properly estimate throughfall amounts during an exceptionally large event. The analytical model, on the other hand, was capable of representing interception during the extreme event, but once again optimizing wet canopy evaporation rates produced a much better fit than optimizing the canopy storage capacity. As such, the present results support the idea that it is primarily a high rate of evaporation from a wet canopy that is responsible for the observed high interception losses.

Do evergreen and deciduous trees have different effects on net N mineralization in soil?

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Kevin E; Hobbie, Sarah E; Oleksyn, Jacek; Reich, Peter B; Eissenstat, David M

2012-06-01

Evergreen and deciduous plants are widely expected to have different impacts on soil nitrogen (N) availability because of differences in leaf litter chemistry and ensuing effects on net N mineralization (N(min)). We evaluated this hypothesis by compiling published data on net N(min) rates beneath co-occurring stands of evergreen and deciduous trees. The compiled data included 35 sets of co-occurring stands in temperate and boreal forests. Evergreen and deciduous stands did not have consistently divergent effects on net N(min) rates; net N(min) beneath deciduous trees was higher when comparing natural stands (19 contrasts), but equivalent to evergreens in plantations (16 contrasts). We also compared net N(min) rates beneath pairs of co-occurring genera. Most pairs of genera did not differ consistently, i.e., tree species from one genus had higher net N(min) at some sites and lower net N(min) at other sites. Moreover, several common deciduous genera (Acer, Betula, Populus) and deciduous Quercus spp. did not typically have higher net N(min) rates than common evergreen genera (Pinus, Picea). There are several reasons why tree effects on net N(min) are poorly predicted by leaf habit and phylogeny. For example, the amount of N mineralized from decomposing leaves might be less than the amount of N mineralized from organic matter pools that are less affected by leaf litter traits, such as dead roots and soil organic matter. Also, effects of plant traits and plant groups on net N(min) probably depend on site-specific factors such as stand age and soil type.

Effectiveness of insecticide-treated and untreated nets to prevent malaria in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Remoortel, Hans; De Buck, Emmy; Singhal, Maneesh; Vandekerckhove, Philippe; Agarwal, Satya P

2015-08-01

India is the most malaria-endemic country in South-East Asia, resulting in a high socio-economic burden. Insecticide-treated or untreated nets are effective interventions to prevent malaria. As part of an Indian first-aid guideline project, we aimed to investigate the magnitude of this effect in India. We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Central to systematically review Indian studies on the effectiveness of treated or untreated vs. no nets. Parasite prevalence and annual parasite incidence served as malaria outcomes. The overall effect was investigated by performing meta-analyses and calculating the pooled risk ratios (RR) and incidence rate ratios. Of 479 articles, we finally retained 16 Indian studies. Untreated nets decreased the risk of parasite prevalence compared to no nets [RR 0.69 (95% CI; 0.55, 0.87) in high-endemic areas, RR 0.49 (95% CI; 0.28, 0.84) in low-endemic areas], as was the case but more pronounced for treated nets [RR 0.35 (95% CI; 0.26, 0.47) in high-endemic areas, risk ratio 0.16 (95% CI; 0.06, 0.44) in low-endemic areas]. Incidence rate ratios showed a similar observation: a significantly reduced rate of parasites in the blood for untreated nets vs. no nets, which was more pronounced in low-endemic areas and for those who used treated nets. The average effect of treated nets (vs. no nets) on parasite prevalence was higher in Indian studies (RR 0.16-0.35) than in non-Indian studies (data derived from a Cochrane systematic review; RR 0.58-0.87). Both treated and untreated nets have a clear protective effect against malaria in the Indian context. This effect is more pronounced there than in other countries. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Net-baryon-, net-proton-, and net-charge kurtosis in heavy-ion collisions within a relativistic transport approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nahrgang, Marlene; Schuster, Tim; Stock, Reinhard; Mitrovski, Michael; Bleicher, Marcus

2012-01-01

We explore the potential of net-baryon, net-proton and net-charge kurtosis measurements to investigate the properties of hot and dense matter created in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. Contrary to calculations in a grand-canonical ensemble we explicitly take into account exact electric and baryon charge conservation on an event-by-event basis. This drastically limits the width of baryon fluctuations. A simple model to account for this is to assume a grand-canonical distribution with a sharp cut-off at the tails. We present baseline predictions of the energy dependence of the net-baryon, net-proton and net-charge kurtosis for central (b≤2.75 fm) Pb+Pb/Au+Au collisions from E lab =2A GeV to √(s NN )=200 GeV from the UrQMD model. While the net-charge kurtosis is compatible with values around zero, the net-baryon number decreases to large negative values with decreasing beam energy. The net-proton kurtosis becomes only slightly negative for low √(s NN ). (orig.)

Effects of acid deposition on dissolution of carbonate stone during summer storms in the Adirondack Mountains, New York, 1987-89

Science.gov (United States)

Schuster, Paul F.; Reddy, Michael M.; Sherwood, S.I.

1994-01-01

This study is part of a long-term research program designed to identify and quantify acid rain damage to carbonate stone. Acidic deposition accelerates the dissolution of carbonate-stone monuments and building materials. Sequential sampling of runoff from carbonate-stone (marble) and glass (reference) microcatchments in the Adirondack Mountains in New York State provided a detailed record of the episodic fluctuations in rain rate and runoff chemistry during individual summer storms. Rain rate and chemical concentrations from carbonate-stone and glass runoff fluctuated three to tenfold during storms. Net calcium-ion concentrations from the carbonatestone runoff, a measure of stone dissolution, typically fluctuated twofold during these storms. High net sulfate and net calcium concentrations in the first effective runoff at the start of a storm indicated that atmospheric pollutants deposited on the stone surface during dry periods formed calcium sulfate minerals, an important process in carbonate stone dissolution. Dissolution of the carbonate stone generally increased up to twofold during coincident episodes of low rain rate (less than 5 millimeters per hour) and decreased rainfall (glass runoff) pH (less than 4.0); episodes of high rain rate (cloudbursts) were coincident with a rapid increase in rainfall pH and also a rapid decrease in the dissolution of carbonate-stone. During a storm, it seems the most important factors causing increased dissolution of carbonate stone are coincident periods of low rain rate and decreased rainfall pH. Dissolution of the carbonate stone decreased slightly as the rain rate exceeded about 5 millimeters per hour, probably in response to rapidly increasing rainfall pH during episodes of high rain rate and shorter contact time between the runoff and the stone surface. High runoff rates resulting from cloudbursts remove calcium sulfate minerals formed during dry periods prior to storms and also remove dissolution products formed in large

Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukabutera, Assumpta; Thomson, Dana; Murray, Megan; Basinga, Paulin; Nyirazinyoye, Laetitia; Atwood, Sidney; Savage, Kevin P; Ngirimana, Aimable; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L

2016-08-05

Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff) but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2009-02-09

Feb 9, 2009 ... the lowest number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days. The highest 24-h ... With regard to seasonal rainfall, the 1995/96 summer rainfall season had ..... The Gauteng Province is approximately 16 500 km2 in size. When the ...

Hydrological Effects of Historic Rainfall on the Waccamaw River

Science.gov (United States)

Jolly, J.; Bao, S.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the overall water budget of the Waccamaw River during and after a historic rainfall event related to Hurricane Joaquin, producing a 1000-year rainfall event. While rainfall is the only input, it enters the basin through various means. Some rainwater enters the soil as soil moisture while rainfall also goes underground and enters the river channels from underground, which is defined as bucket in. Over time, the rainfall was removed from the river site through various natural processes. Those processes, including evaporation, soil storage as soil moisture, discharge runoff through the river channel, among others, were modeled and validated against the USGS gauge stations. The validated model results were then used to estimate the hydrological response of the Waccamaw River to the rainfall event and determine the overall water budget. The experiment was completed using a WRF-Hydro modeling system for the purposes of weather forecasting and meteorological analysis. Upon completion of the data analysis, the WRF-Hydro model result showed that large amounts of rainfall were variously dispersed through the aforementioned areas. It was determined that after entering the soil rainfall predominantly left the river basin by discharge, while evaporation accounted for the second most common destination of rainfall. Base flow also accounted for a destination of rainfall, though not as much as those previously mentioned.

Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Álvaro José Back

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

2016-12-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

Rainfall interception of three trees in Oakland, California

Science.gov (United States)

Qingfu Xiao; E. Gregory McPherson

2011-01-01

A rainfall interception study was conducted in Oakland, California to determine the partitioning of rainfall and the chemical composition of precipitation, throughfall, and stemflow. Rainfall interception measurements were conducted on a gingko (Ginkgo biloba) (13.5 m tall deciduous tree), sweet gum (Liquidambar styraciflua) (8...

Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models

Science.gov (United States)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin

2017-11-01

This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.

Rainfall Product Evaluation for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

Science.gov (United States)

Amitai, E.; Wolff, D. B.; Robinson, M.; Silberstein, D. S.; Marks, D. A.; Kulie, M. S.; Fisher, B.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations is conducted through a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program. Standardized instantaneous and monthly rainfall products are routinely generated using quality-controlled ground based radar data from four primary GV sites. As part of the TRMM GV program, effort is being made to evaluate these GV products and to determine the uncertainties of the rainfall estimates. The evaluation effort is based on comparison to rain gauge data. The variance between the gauge measurement and the true averaged rain amount within the radar pixel is a limiting factor in the evaluation process. While monthly estimates are relatively simple to evaluate, the evaluation of the instantaneous products are much more of a challenge. Scattegrams of point comparisons between radar and rain gauges are extremely noisy for several reasons (e.g. sample volume discrepancies, timing and navigation mismatches, variability of Z(sub e)-R relationships), and therefore useless for evaluating the estimates. Several alternative methods, such as the analysis of the distribution of rain volume by rain rate as derived from gauge intensities and from reflectivities above the gauge network will be presented. Alternative procedures to increase the accuracy of the estimates and to reduce their uncertainties also will be discussed.

The analysis of the possibility of using 10-minute rainfall series to determine the maximum rainfall amount with 5 minutes duration

Science.gov (United States)

Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Wartalska, Katarzyna; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kotowski, Andrzej

2017-11-01

Modern scientific research in the area of heavy rainfall analysis regarding to the sewerage design indicates the need to develop and use probabilistic rain models. One of the issues that remains to be resolved is the length of the shortest amount of rain to be analyzed. It is commonly believed that the best time is 5 minutes, while the least rain duration measured by the national services is often 10 or even 15 minutes. Main aim of this paper is to present the difference between probabilistic rainfall models results given from rainfall time series including and excluding 5 minutes rainfall duration. Analysis were made for long-time period from 1961-2010 on polish meteorological station Legnica. To develop best fitted to measurement rainfall data probabilistic model 4 probabilistic distributions were used. Results clearly indicates that models including 5 minutes rainfall duration remains more appropriate to use.

Satellite and gauge rainfall merging using geographically weighted regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. Hu

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A residual-based rainfall merging scheme using geographically weighted regression (GWR has been proposed. This method is capable of simultaneously blending various satellite rainfall data with gauge measurements and could describe the non-stationary influences of geographical and terrain factors on rainfall spatial distribution. Using this new method, an experimental study on merging daily rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Morphing dataset (CMOROH and gauge measurements was conducted for the Ganjiang River basin, in Southeast China. We investigated the capability of the merging scheme for daily rainfall estimation under different gauge density. Results showed that under the condition of sparse gauge density the merging rainfall scheme is remarkably superior to the interpolation using just gauge data.

A scattering-based over-land rainfall retrieval algorithm for South Korea using GCOM-W1/AMSR-2 data

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Young-Joo; Shin, Hayan; Ban, Hyunju; Lee, Yang-Won; Park, Kyung-Ae; Cho, Jaeil; Park, No-Wook; Hong, Sungwook

2017-08-01

Heavy summer rainfall is a primary natural disaster affecting lives and properties in the Korean Peninsula. This study presents a satellite-based rainfall rate retrieval algorithm for the South Korea combining polarization-corrected temperature ( PCT) and scattering index ( SI) data from the 36.5 and 89.0 GHz channels of the Advanced microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR-2) onboard the Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM)-W1 satellite. The coefficients for the algorithm were obtained from spatial and temporal collocation data from the AMSR-2 and groundbased automatic weather station rain gauges from 1 July - 30 August during the years, 2012-2015. There were time delays of about 25 minutes between the AMSR-2 observations and the ground raingauge measurements. A new linearly-combined rainfall retrieval algorithm focused on heavy rain for the PCT and SI was validated using ground-based rainfall observations for the South Korea from 1 July - 30 August, 2016. The validation presented PCT and SI methods showed slightly improved results for rainfall > 5 mm h-1 compared to the current ASMR-2 level 2 data. The best bias and root mean square error (RMSE) for the PCT method at AMSR-2 36.5 GHz were 2.09 mm h-1 and 7.29 mm h-1, respectively, while the current official AMSR-2 rainfall rates show a larger bias and RMSE (4.80 mm h-1 and 9.35 mm h-1, respectively). This study provides a scatteringbased over-land rainfall retrieval algorithm for South Korea affected by stationary front rain and typhoons with the advantages of the previous PCT and SI methods to be applied to a variety of spaceborne passive microwave radiometers.

Estimating methane emissions from landfills based on rainfall, ambient temperature, and waste composition: The CLEEN model.

Science.gov (United States)

Karanjekar, Richa V; Bhatt, Arpita; Altouqui, Said; Jangikhatoonabad, Neda; Durai, Vennila; Sattler, Melanie L; Hossain, M D Sahadat; Chen, Victoria

2015-12-01

Accurately estimating landfill methane emissions is important for quantifying a landfill's greenhouse gas emissions and power generation potential. Current models, including LandGEM and IPCC, often greatly simplify treatment of factors like rainfall and ambient temperature, which can substantially impact gas production. The newly developed Capturing Landfill Emissions for Energy Needs (CLEEN) model aims to improve landfill methane generation estimates, but still require inputs that are fairly easy to obtain: waste composition, annual rainfall, and ambient temperature. To develop the model, methane generation was measured from 27 laboratory scale landfill reactors, with varying waste compositions (ranging from 0% to 100%); average rainfall rates of 2, 6, and 12 mm/day; and temperatures of 20, 30, and 37°C, according to a statistical experimental design. Refuse components considered were the major biodegradable wastes, food, paper, yard/wood, and textile, as well as inert inorganic waste. Based on the data collected, a multiple linear regression equation (R(2)=0.75) was developed to predict first-order methane generation rate constant values k as functions of waste composition, annual rainfall, and temperature. Because, laboratory methane generation rates exceed field rates, a second scale-up regression equation for k was developed using actual gas-recovery data from 11 landfills in high-income countries with conventional operation. The Capturing Landfill Emissions for Energy Needs (CLEEN) model was developed by incorporating both regression equations into the first-order decay based model for estimating methane generation rates from landfills. CLEEN model values were compared to actual field data from 6 US landfills, and to estimates from LandGEM and IPCC. For 4 of the 6 cases, CLEEN model estimates were the closest to actual. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) Level 2 Rainfall Rate and Profile Product (TRMM Product 2A25) V6

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR), the first of its kind in space, is an electronically scanning radar, operating at 13.8 GHz that measures the 3-D rainfall...

Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

2012-12-30

Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Rainfall Intensity on Soil Erosion and Runoff for Latosol Soil in Indonesia

OpenAIRE

Sukartaatmadja, Sukandi; Sato, Yohei; Yamaji, Eiji; Ishikawa, Masaya

2003-01-01

Soil erosion is the most serious problem of land degradation in Indonesia. However, limited report has been documented. The erosion problem in Indonesia, particularly in Java, has been at an alarming rate. The fundamental 1 case of soil erosion is the rain effect upon the soil. Rainfall intensity and soil characteristics are related to soil erosion and runoff The objective of this research was to study the relationship of rainfall intensity, soil erosion and runoff in latosol s...

Petri Nets

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

In a computer system, for example, typical discrete events ... This project brought out a series of influential reports on Petri net theory in the mid and late ... Technology became a leading centre for Petri net research and from then on, Petri nets ...

The water budget of heterogeneous areas : impact of soil and rainfall variability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kim, C.P.

1995-01-01

In this thesis the heterogeneity of the soil water budget components is investigated. Heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties and rainfall rate are taken into account by using stochastic methods. The importance of lateral groundwater flow in causing heterogeneity of the water budget

Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Vessia, G.; Parise, M.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Rossi, M.; Vennari, C.; Guzzetti, F.

2014-04-01

Over the last 40 years, many contributions have been devoted to identifying the empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. intensity vs. duration ID, cumulated rainfall vs. duration ED, cumulated rainfall vs. intensity EI) for the initiation of shallow landslides, based on local as well as worldwide inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has rarely been addressed. Nonetheless, objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence (effective rainfall) play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented: (1) the first is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over one month preceding the landslide occurrence, and (2) the second on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure written in R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy by the CNR-IRPI research group from 2002 to 2012 has been used to calibrate the proposed procedure. The cumulated rainfall E and duration D of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the (D,E) diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the (D,E) pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010

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Assumpta Mukabutera

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. Methods We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Results Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Conclusion Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

Evaluation of the influence of weather conditions on external dose rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knight, A.

1993-01-01

Six time periods in 1989/90, when there were high gamma ray dose rate readings at three or more RIMNET Phase 1 sites, were selected for detailed study. The high dose rates were compared with meteorological data (rainfall, temperatures, windspeeds and atmospheric pressure) at the sites for the time periods studied. The results using daily and hourly data clearly show a correlation between gamma ray dose rate and rainfall but not with the other meteorological parameters studied. The increase in dose rate with increased rainfall is believed to be due to radon decay products being washed down with heavy rain. (author)

CLIMATIC FORECASTING OF NET INFILTRATION AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, USING ANALOGUE METEOROLOGICAL DATA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

B. Faybishenko

2005-01-01

Net infiltration is a key hydrologic parameter that controls the rate of deep percolation through the unsaturated zone, the groundwater recharge, radionuclide transport, and seepage into the underground tunnels. Because net infiltration is largely affected by climatic conditions, future changes in climatic conditions will potentially alter net infiltration. The objectives of this presentation are to: (1) Present a conceptual model and a semi-empirical approach for regional, climatic forecasting of net infiltration, based on the precipitation and temperature data from analogue meteorological stations, and (2) Demonstrate the results of forecasting net infiltration for future climates--interglacial, monsoon and glacial--over the Yucca Mountain region for the period of 500,000 years. Calculations of the net infiltration were performed using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, for which potential evapotranspiration was evaluated from the temperature-based Thornthwaite formula. (Both Budyko's and Thornthwaite's formulae have been used broadly in hydrological studies.) The results of calculations were used for ranking net infiltration, along with the aridity and precipitation-effectiveness (P-E) indexes, for future climatic scenarios. Using this approach, we determined a general trend of increasing net infiltration from the present-day (interglacial) climate to monsoon, intermediate (glacial transition), and then to the glacial climate. Ranking of the aridity and P-E indexes is practically the same as that of net infiltration. The validation of the computed net infiltration rates yielded a good match with other field and modeling study results of groundwater recharge and net infiltration evaluation

Gross rainfall amount and maximum rainfall intensity in 60-minute influence on interception loss of shrubs: a 10-year observation in the Tengger Desert.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Zhao, Yang; Li, Xin-Rong; Huang, Lei; Tan, Hui-Juan

2016-05-17

In water-limited regions, rainfall interception is influenced by rainfall properties and crown characteristics. Rainfall properties, aside from gross rainfall amount and duration (GR and RD), maximum rainfall intensity and rainless gap (RG), within rain events may heavily affect throughfall and interception by plants. From 2004 to 2014 (except for 2007), individual shrubs of Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia ordosica were selected to measure throughfall during 210 rain events. Various rainfall properties were auto-measured and crown characteristics, i.e., height, branch and leaf area index, crown area and volume of two shrubs were also measured. The relative interceptions of C. korshinskii and A. ordosica were 29.1% and 17.1%, respectively. Rainfall properties have more contributions than crown characteristics to throughfall and interception of shrubs. Throughfall and interception of shrubs can be explained by GR, RI60 (maximum rainfall intensities during 60 min), RD and RG in deceasing importance. However, relative throughfall and interception of two shrubs have different responses to rainfall properties and crown characteristics, those of C. korshinskii were closely related to rainfall properties, while those of A. ordosica were more dependent on crown characteristics. We highlight long-term monitoring is very necessary to determine the relationships between throughfall and interception with crown characteristics.

Use of 7Be to document soil erosion associated with a short period of extreme rainfall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sepulveda, A.; Schuller, P.; Walling, D.E.; Castillo, A.

2008-01-01

Intensification and expansion of agricultural production since the 1970s have increased soil erosion problems in south-central Chile. Quantitative information on soil loss is needed for erosion risk assessment and to establish the effectiveness of improved land management practices. Since information from traditional sources, such as erosion plots, is limited, attention has been directed to the use of environmental radionuclides for documenting erosion rates. Cs-137 has been successfully utilised for this purpose, but only provides information on medium-term erosion rates. There is also a need to document event-related soil erosion. This paper outlines the basis for using 7 Be measurements to document short-term erosion and reports its successful use for quantifying the erosion that occurred within an arable field, as a result of a period of heavy rainfall (400 mm in 27 days) occurring in May 2005. The study field had been under a no-till, no-burning system for 18 years, but immediately prior to the period of heavy rainfall the harvest residues were burnt. The erosion recorded therefore reflected both the extreme nature of the rainfall and the effects of the burning in increasing surface runoff and erosion. The sampled area corresponded to that used previously by the authors to document the medium-term erosion rates associated with both conventional tillage and the subsequent switch to a no-till system. Comparisons between the erosion documented for the period of heavy rainfall in 2005 with these medium-term erosion rates permits some tentative conclusions regarding the importance of extreme events and the impact of burning in increasing the erosion associated with the no-till system

A Poisson Cluster Stochastic Rainfall Generator That Accounts for the Interannual Variability of Rainfall Statistics: Validation at Various Geographic Locations across the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongkyun Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A novel approach for a Poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generator was validated in its ability to reproduce important rainfall and watershed response characteristics at 104 locations in the United States. The suggested novel approach, The Hybrid Model (THM, as compared to the traditional Poisson cluster rainfall modeling approaches, has an additional capability to account for the interannual variability of rainfall statistics. THM and a traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall model (modified Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model were compared in their ability to reproduce the characteristics of extreme rainfall and watershed response variables such as runoff and peak flow. The results of the comparison indicate that THM generally outperforms the traditional approach in reproducing the distributions of peak rainfall, peak flow, and runoff volume. In addition, THM significantly outperformed the traditional approach in reproducing extreme rainfall by 2.3% to 66% and extreme flow values by 32% to 71%.

Runoff Analysis Considering Orographical Features Using Dual Polarization Radar Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, Hui-seong; Shin, Hyun-seok; Kang, Na-rae; Lee, Choong-Ke; Kim, Hung-soo

2013-04-01

Recently, the necessity for rainfall estimation and forecasting using the radar is being highlighted, due to the frequent occurrence of torrential rainfall resulting from abnormal changes of weather. Radar rainfall data represents temporal and spatial distributions properly and replace the existing rain gauge networks. It is also frequently applied in many hydrologic field researches. However, the radar rainfall data has an accuracy limitation since it estimates rainfall, by monitoring clouds and precipitation particles formed around the surface of the earth(1.5-3km above the surface) or the atmosphere. In a condition like Korea where nearly 70% of the land is covered by mountainous areas, there are lots of restrictions to use rainfall radar, because of the occurrence of beam blocking areas by topography. This study is aiming at analyzing runoff and examining the applicability of (R(Z), R(ZDR) and R(KDP)) provided by the Han River Flood Control Office(HRFCO) based on the basin elevation of Nakdong river watershed. For this purpose, the amount of radar rainfall of each rainfall event was estimated according to three sub-basins of Nakdong river watershed with the average basin elevation above 400m which are Namgang dam, Andong dam and Hapcheon dam and also another three sub-basins with the average basin elevation below 150m which are Waegwan, Changryeong and Goryeong. After runoff analysis using a distribution model, Vflo model, the results were reviewed and compared with the observed runoff. This study estimated the rainfall by using the radar-rainfall transform formulas, (R(Z), R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) for four stormwater events and compared the results with the point rainfall of the rain gauge. As the result, it was overestimated or underestimated, depending on rainfall events. Also, calculation indicates that the values from R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) relatively showed the most similar results. Moreover the runoff analysis using the estimated radar rainfall is

Determinants of the net interest margins in BH banks

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Plakalović Novo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the subject of analysis is influence of certain macroeconomic and microeconomic variables on bank net interest margins in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH for the period from 2008 to 2013 through a multiple linear regression models. The level and dynamics of NIM indicate the efficiency of financial intermediation. The observed period is characterized by the reduction in net interest margins of banks over the previous decade, which was characterized by high GDP growth, bank loans and high-interest rates and high profitability. Therefore, this study examines the factors that affect the level of net interest margins in the domestic banking industry. The main objective of this paper is to determine whether there is interdependence in the movement between the independent and dependent variables through a multiple linear regression. The net interest margin will be observed as a dependent variable, and liquidity risk, operating costs, credit risk, the index of market concentration, funding risk, the growth rate of gross domestic product and consumer price index will be used as independent variables.

WATER QUALITY AND ITS EFFECT ON GROWTH AND SURVIVAL RATE OF LOBSTER REARED IN FLOATING NET CAGE IN EKAS BAY, WEST NUSA TENGGARA PROVINCE

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Muhammad Junaidi

2015-02-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The development of lobster farming in floating net cage in Ekas Bay caused an environmental degradation such as decrease water quality due to some aquaculture wastes. The purposes of this study were to determine the status of water quality and their effect on growth and survival rate of lobster reared in floating net cages (FNC in the Ekas Bay, West Nusa Tenggara Province. Water sample collection and handling referred to the APHA (1992. Analyses of water quality data were conducted using Principal Component Analysis. Determination of the water quality status of Ekas Bay was performed with STORET system. Multivariate analyses were used to determine the relationship between water quality, growth, and survival rate of lobster reared in FNC. Results showed that Ekas Bay water quality status was categorized in class C (medium contaminated, which exceeded some quality standard parameters such as ammonia (0.3 mg/l, nitrate (0.008 mg/l, and phosphate (0.015 mg/l. During lobster farming activities feeding with trash fish for 270 days, we obtained daily growth rate of  0.74% (lower than normal growth rate of 0.86%, survival rate of 66% (lower than normal survival rate of 86.7%, and feed conversion ratio of 11.15. Ammonia was found as a dominant factor reducing growth  and survival rate of lobster reared in FNC. Keywords: water quality, lobsters, growth, survival, Ekas Bay

Responses of the sustainable yield of groundwater to annual rainfall and pumping patterns in the Baotou Plain, North China

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Z.; LONG, Y., Sr.; Wei, Y.; Guo, Z.

2017-12-01

Serious water deficits and deteriorating environmental quality are threatening the sustainable socio-economic development and the protection of the ecology and the environment in North China, especially in Baotou City. There is a common misconception that groundwater extraction can be sustainable if the pumping rate does not exceed the total natural recharge in a groundwater basin. The truth is that the natural recharge is mainly affected by the rainfall and that groundwater withdrawal determines the sustainable yield of the aquifer flow system. The concept of the sustainable yield is defined as the allowance pumping patterns and rates that avoid adverse impacts on the groundwater system. The sustainable yield introduced in this paper is a useful baseline for groundwater management under all rainfall conditions and given pumping scenarios. A dynamic alternative to the groundwater sustainable yield for a given pumping pattern and rate should consider the responses of the recharge, discharge, and evapotranspiration to the groundwater level fluctuation and to different natural rainfall conditions. In this study, methods for determining the sustainable yield through time series data of groundwater recharge, discharge, extraction, and precipitation in an aquifer are introduced. A numerical simulation tool was used to assess and quantify the dynamic changes in groundwater recharge and discharge under excessive pumping patterns and rates and to estimate the sustainable yield of groundwater flow based on natural rainfall conditions and specific groundwater development scenarios during the period of 2007 to 2014. The results of this study indicate that the multi-year sustainable yield only accounts for about one-half of the average annual recharge. The future sustainable yield for the current pumping scenarios affected by rainfall conditions are evaluated quantitatively to obtain long-term groundwater development strategies. The simulation results show that sufficient

Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

2016-04-01

Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

The equivalency between logic Petri workflow nets and workflow nets.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jing; Yu, ShuXia; Du, YuYue

2015-01-01

Logic Petri nets (LPNs) can describe and analyze batch processing functions and passing value indeterminacy in cooperative systems. Logic Petri workflow nets (LPWNs) are proposed based on LPNs in this paper. Process mining is regarded as an important bridge between modeling and analysis of data mining and business process. Workflow nets (WF-nets) are the extension to Petri nets (PNs), and have successfully been used to process mining. Some shortcomings cannot be avoided in process mining, such as duplicate tasks, invisible tasks, and the noise of logs. The online shop in electronic commerce in this paper is modeled to prove the equivalence between LPWNs and WF-nets, and advantages of LPWNs are presented.

The Equivalency between Logic Petri Workflow Nets and Workflow Nets

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jing; Yu, ShuXia; Du, YuYue

2015-01-01

Logic Petri nets (LPNs) can describe and analyze batch processing functions and passing value indeterminacy in cooperative systems. Logic Petri workflow nets (LPWNs) are proposed based on LPNs in this paper. Process mining is regarded as an important bridge between modeling and analysis of data mining and business process. Workflow nets (WF-nets) are the extension to Petri nets (PNs), and have successfully been used to process mining. Some shortcomings cannot be avoided in process mining, such as duplicate tasks, invisible tasks, and the noise of logs. The online shop in electronic commerce in this paper is modeled to prove the equivalence between LPWNs and WF-nets, and advantages of LPWNs are presented. PMID:25821845

Influence of rainfall on the dynamics of two prawn populations in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Recruitment takes place 4 to 5 months after spawning. Thus the time span from rainfall to recruitment of the young of a given cohort is 7 to 8 months. For N. hastatus, the catch rate in the ... AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL.

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

Science.gov (United States)

Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

Rainfall reliability, drought and flood vulnerability in Botswana ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rainfall data from 14 stations (cities, towns and major villages) spanning 26 years (1970 to 1995) were used to calculate reliability and vulnerability of rainfall in Botswana. Time series data for 72 years were generated from the long-term rainfall gauging stations and the number of wet and dry years determined. Apart from ...

Temporal and spatial variations of rainfall erosivity in Southern Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ming-Hsi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan; Chu, Chun-Kuang

2014-05-01

Soil erosion models are essential in developing effective soil and water resource conservation strategies. Soil erosion is generally evaluated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with an appropriate regional scale description. Among factors in the USLE model, the rainfall erosivity index (R) provides one of the clearest indications of the effects of climate change. Accurate estimation of rainfall erosivity requires continuous rainfall data; however, such data rarely demonstrate good spatial and temporal coverage. The data set consisted of 9240 storm events for the period 1993 to 2011, monitored by 27 rainfall stations of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in southern Taiwan, was used to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution map was plotted based on rainfall erosivity by the Kriging interpolation method. Results indicated that rainfall erosivity is mainly concentrated in rainy season from June to November typically contributed 90% of the yearly R factor. The temporal variations of monthly rainfall erosivity during June to November and annual rainfall erosivity have increasing trend from 1993 to 2011. There is an increasing trend from southwest to northeast in spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in southern Taiwan. The results further indicated that there is a higher relationship between elevation and rainfall erosivity. The method developed in this study may also be useful for sediment disasters on Climate Change.

Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2018-01-01

In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

Temporal characteristics of rainfall events under three climate types in Slovenia

Science.gov (United States)

Dolšak, Domen; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

2016-10-01

Temporal rainfall distribution can often have significant influence on other hydrological processes such as runoff generation or rainfall interception. High-frequency rainfall data from 30 stations in Slovenia were analysed in order to improve the knowledge about the temporal rainfall distribution within a rainfall event. Using the pre-processed rainfall data Huff curves were determined and the binary shape code (BSC) methodology was applied. Although Slovenia covers only about 20,000 km2, results indicate large temporal and spatial variability in the precipitation pattern of the analysed stations, which is in agreement with the different Slovenian climate types: sub-Mediterranean, temperate continental, and mountain climate. Statistically significant correlation was identified between the most frequent BSC types, mean annual precipitation, and rainfall erosivity for individual rainfall stations. Moreover, different temporal rainfall distributions were observed for rainfall events with shorter duration (less than 12 h) than those with longer duration (more than 24 h). Using the analysis of the Huff curves it was shown that the variability in the Huff curves decreases with increasing rainfall duration. Thus, it seems that for shorter duration convective storms a more diverse temporal rainfall distribution can be expected than for the longer duration frontal precipitation where temporal rainfall distribution shows less variability.

A model for estimating time-variant rainfall infiltration as a function of antecedent surface moisture and hydrologic soil type

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkening, H. A.; Ragan, R. M.

1982-01-01

Recent research indicates that the use of remote sensing techniques for the measurement of near surface soil moisture could be practical in the not too distant future. Other research shows that infiltration rates, especially for average or frequent rainfall events, are extremely sensitive to the proper definition and consideration of the role of the soil moisture at the beginning of the rainfall. Thus, it is important that an easy to use, but theoretically sound, rainfall infiltration model be available if the anticipated remotely sensed soil moisture data is to be optimally utilized for hydrologic simulation. A series of numerical experiments with the Richards' equation for an array of conditions anticipated in watershed hydrology were used to develop functional relationships that describe temporal infiltration rates as a function of soil type and initial moisture conditions.

Effects of sea surface temperature, cloud radiative and microphysical processes, and diurnal variations on rainfall in equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Zhe; Li Xiao-Fan; Zhou Yu-Shu; Gao Shou-Ting

2012-01-01

The effects of sea surface temperature (SST), cloud radiative and microphysical processes, and diurnal variations on rainfall statistics are documented with grid data from the two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulations. For a rain rate of higher than 3 mm·h −1 , water vapor convergence prevails. The rainfall amount decreases with the decrease of SST from 29 °C to 27 °C, the inclusion of diurnal variation of SST, or the exclusion of microphysical effects of ice clouds and radiative effects of water clouds, which are primarily associated with the decreases in water vapor convergence. However, the amount of rainfall increases with the increase of SST from 29 °C to 31 °C, the exclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle, and the exclusion of the radiative effects of ice clouds, which are primarily related to increases in water vapor convergence. For a rain rate of less than 3 mm·h −1 , water vapor divergence prevails. Unlike rainfall statistics for rain rates of higher than 3 mm·h −1 , the decrease of SST from 29 °C to 27 °C and the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds increase the rainfall amount, which corresponds to the suppression in water vapor divergence. The exclusion of microphysical effects of ice clouds decreases the amount of rainfall, which corresponds to the enhancement in water vapor divergence. The amount of rainfall is less sensitive to the increase of SST from 29 °C to 31 °C and to the radiative effects of water clouds in the absence of the radiative effects of ice clouds. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

Gill net selectivity and catch rates of pelagic fish in tropical coastal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The fish species and size selectivity of gillnets design with monofilament nylon polyethylene netting materials were investigated in Lagos Lagoon, Nigeria between September and December 2005. The gillnets floats and sinkers were improvised from rubber slippers and lead metallic objects which were attached at intervals ...

Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study ...

How is overland flow produced under intermittent rain? An analysis using plot-scale rainfall simulation on dryland soils

Science.gov (United States)

Dunkerley, David

2018-01-01

The characteristic intermittency of rainfall includes temporary cessations (hiatuses), as well as periods of very low intensity within more intense events. To understand how these characteristics of rainfall affect overland flow production, rainfall simulations involving repeated cycles of on-off intermittency were carried out on dryland soils in arid western New South Wales, Australia. Periods of rain (10 mm/h) and no-rain were applied in alternation with cycle times from 3 min to 25 min, in experiments lasting 1-1.5 h. Results showed that intermittency could delay the onset of runoff by more than 30 min, reduce the runoff ratio, reduce the peak runoff rate, and reduce the apparent event infiltration rate by 30-45%. When hiatuses in rainfall were longer than 15-20 min, runoff that had resulted from prior rain ceased completely before the recommencement of rain. Results demonstrate that if rainfall intermittency is not accounted for, estimates of infiltrability based on runoff plot data can be systematically in error. Despite the use of intermittent rain, the episodic occurrence of runoff could be predicted successfully by fitting multiple affine Horton infiltration equations, whose changing f0 and Kf coefficients, but uniform values of fc, reflected the redistribution of soil moisture and the change in the infiltrability f during hiatuses in rainfall. The value of fc varied little among the fitted equations, so constituting an affine set of relationships. This new approach provides an alternative to the use of steady-state methods that are common in rainfall simulation experiments and which typically yield only an estimate of fc. The new field results confirm that intermittency affects infiltration and runoff depths and timing at plot scale and on intra-event timescales. Additional work on other soil types, and at other spatial and temporal scales, is needed to test the generality of these findings.

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

2018-04-01

This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Yuang Huang

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Moderate Typhoon Morakot (2009 became the most catastrophic typhoon in Taiwan on record. The MM5 numerical experiments with and without bogus data assimilation (BDA were used to investigate the extreme rainfall mechanisms in Taiwan associated with the westbound typhoon. The BDA, based on 4DVAR, helps MM5 to maintain a more consolidated typhoon vortex and better predict the observed track after landfall, thus producing realistic extreme rainfall (about 2400 mm at the southern and Central Mountain Range (CMR of Taiwan. Severe rainfall in Taiwan is dominated by the CMR that hence modulates rainfall predictability.

Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Hearman

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k*=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2 for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln g*<2. Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time

Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2017-11-01

Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

Point of net vapor generation and vapor void fraction in subcooled boiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saha, P.; Zuber, N.

1974-01-01

An analysis is presented directed at predicting the point of net vapor generation and vapor void fraction in subcooled boiling. It is shown that the point of net vapor generation depends upon local conditions--thermal and fluid dynamic. Thus, at low mass flow rates the net vapor generation is determined by thermal conditions, whereas at high mass flow rates the phenomenon is hydrodynamically controlled. Simple criteria are derived which can be used to predict these local conditions for net vapor generation. These criteria are used to determine the vapor void fraction is subcooled boiling. Comparison between the results predicted by this analysis and experimental data presently available shows good agreement for wide range of operating conditions, fluids and geometries. (U.S.)

Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Sreekanth, T. S.

Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

A comprehensive continent-wide regionalisation investigation for daily design rainfall

OpenAIRE

F. Johnson; J. Green

2018-01-01

Study region: Australia. Study focus: Design rainfalls, in the form of Intensity Duration Frequency curves, are the standard input for most flood studies. Methods to combine rainfall data across space are required to provide optimal estimates of design rainfalls and constrain their uncertainty. This paper robustly investigates the use of a variety of regionalization methods to provide Australia wide design rainfall estimates using 8619 high quality rainfall stations. The influence of an indiv...

Colorectal Cancer Safety Net: Is It Catching Patients Appropriately?

Science.gov (United States)

Althans, Alison R; Brady, Justin T; Times, Melissa L; Keller, Deborah S; Harvey, Alexis R; Kelly, Molly E; Patel, Nilam D; Steele, Scott R

2018-01-01

Disparities in access to colorectal cancer care are multifactorial and are affected by socioeconomic elements. Uninsured and Medicaid patients present with advanced stage disease and have worse outcomes compared with similar privately insured patients. Safety net hospitals are a major care provider to this vulnerable population. Few studies have evaluated outcomes for safety net hospitals compared with private institutions in colorectal cancer. The purpose of this study was to compare demographics, screening rates, presentation stage, and survival rates between a safety net hospital and a tertiary care center. Comparative review of patients at 2 institutions in the same metropolitan area were conducted. The study included colorectal cancer care delivered either at 1 safety net hospital or 1 private tertiary care center in the same city from 2010 to 2016. A total of 350 patients with colorectal cancer from each hospital were evaluated. Overall survival across hospital systems was measured. The safety net hospital had significantly more uninsured and Medicaid patients (46% vs 13%; p presentation, a similar percentage of patients at each hospital presented with stage IV disease (26% vs 20%; p = 0.06). For those undergoing resection, final pathologic stage distribution was similar across groups (p = 0.10). After a comparable median follow-up period (26.6 mo for safety net hospital vs 29.2 mo for tertiary care center), log-rank test for overall survival favored the safety net hospital (p = 0.05); disease-free survival was similar between hospitals (p = 0.40). This was a retrospective review, reporting from medical charts. Our results support the value of safety net hospitals for providing quality colorectal cancer care, with survival and recurrence outcomes equivalent or improved compared with a local tertiary care center. Because safety net hospitals can provide equivalent outcomes despite socioeconomic inequalities and financial constraints, emphasis should be focused

Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk-Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Kathleen F.; Wang, Zheyu; Janes, Holly; McClelland, Robyn L.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Pepe, Margaret S.

2014-01-01

Net reclassification indices have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. We review the various types of net reclassification indices and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of quantifying the prediction increment with these indices. For pre-defined risk categories, we relate net reclassification indices to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for net reclassification indices and evaluate the merits of hypothesis testing based on such indices. We recommend that investigators using net reclassification indices should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the components of net reclassification indices are the same as the changes in the true-positive and false-positive rates. We advocate use of true- and false-positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against net reclassification indices because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in shifts among risk categories. The category-free net reclassification index is a new descriptive device designed to avoid pre-defined risk categories. However, it suffers from many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free index can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the net reclassification index. If investigators want to use net reclassification indices, confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap

A review of net metering mechanism for electricity renewable energy sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poullikkas, Andreas; Kourtis, George; Hadjipaschalis, Ioannis [Electricity Authority of Cyprus, P.O. Box 24506, 1399 Nicosia (Cyprus)

2013-07-01

In this work, an overview of the net metering mechanism for renewable energy sources for power generation (RES-E) systems is carried out. In particular, the net metering concept is examined with its benefits and misconceptions. Furthermore, a survey of the current operational net metering schemes in different countries in the world, such as, in Europe, USA, Canada, Thailand and Australia, is carried out. The survey indicated that there are different net metering mechanisms depending on the particularities of each country (or state in the case of USA). Especially, in Europe, only five countries are using net metering in a very simple form, such as, any amount of energy produced by the eligible RES-E technology is compensated from the energy consumed by the RES-E producer, which results to either a less overall electricity bill or to an exception in payment energy taxes. In the USA and the USA territories, any customer’s net excess generation is credited to the customer’s next electricity bill for a 12-month billing cycle at various rates or via a combination between rates. The actual type of net excess generation (NEG) credit is decided by a number of set criteria, such as the type of RES-E technology, the RES-E capacity limit, the type of customer and the type of utility. Regarding any excess credit at the end of the 12-month billing cycle, this is either granted to the utilities, or carries over indefinitely to the customer’s next electricity bill, or is reconciled annually at any rate, or provides an option to the customer to choose between the last two options.

Interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa linked to cut-off low associated rainfall

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The influence of cut-off low (COL) associated rainfall on interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast region of South Africa for the period 1979-2011 is investigated. COLs are objectively identified and tracked on daily average 500 h...

prediction of rainfall in the southern highlands of tanzania

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

distribution at different places in the world. A study to ... climate indices influence rainfall. It has been observed .... Table 4: Summary of Predictors entered MLR and PCR models for MAM and OND rainfalls. .... from the cumulus clouds; rainfall is.

Conversion of a moderately rewetted fen to a shallow lake - implications for net CO2 exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Koebsch, Franziska; Glatzel, Stephan; Hofmann, Joachim; Forbrich, Inke; Jurasinski, Gerald

2013-04-01

Extensive rewetting projects to re-establish the natural carbon (C) sequestration function of degraded peatlands are currently taking place in Europe and North-America. Year-round flooding provides a robust measure to prevent periods of drought that are associated with ongoing peat mineralization and to initiate the accumulation of new organic matter. Here, we present measurements of net carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange during the gradual conversion of a moderately rewetted fen to a shallow lake. When we started our measurements in 2009, mean growing season water level (MWGL) was 0 cm. In 2010 the site was flooded throughout the year with MWGL of 36 cm. Extraordinary strong rainfalls in July 2011 resulted in a further increase of MWGL to 56 cm. Measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were conducted during growing seasons (May-October) using the Eddy Covariance method. Information about vegetation vitality was deduced from the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) based on MODIS data. Ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were high during vegetation period 2009 (1273.4 and -1572.1 g CO2-C m-2), but decreased by 61 and 46% respectively when the fen was flooded throughout 2010. Under water-logged conditions, heterotrophic respiration declines and gas exchange is limited. Moreover, flooding is a severe stress factor for plants and decreases autotrophic respiration and photosynthesis. However, in comparison to 2010, rates of Reco and GEP doubled during the beginning of growing season 2011, indicating plastic response strategies of wetland plants to flooding. Presumably, plants were not able to cope with the further increase of water levels to up to 120 cm in June/July 2011, resulting in another drop of GEP and Reco. The effects of plant vitality on GEP were confirmed by the remote sensed vegetation index. Throughout all three growing seasons, the fen was a distinct net CO2 sink (2009: -333.3±12.3, 2010: -294.1±8.4, -352.4±5.1 g CO2-C m-2

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

2018-03-01

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hassan Zulkarnain

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015 data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM, as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM. Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD

2018-01-01

Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

Coloured Petri Nets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Kurt

1987-01-01

The author describes a Petri net model, called coloured Petri nets (CP-nets), by means of which it is possible to describe large systems without having to cope with unnecessary details. The author introduces CP-nets and provide a first impression of their modeling power and the suitability...

[Effects of reduced solar radiation on winter wheat flag leaf net photosynthetic rate].

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, You-Fei; Ni, Yan-Li; Mai, Bo-Ru; Wu, Rong-Jun; Feng, Yan; Sun, Jian; Li, Jian; Xu, Jing-Xin

2011-06-01

Taking winter wheat Triticum aestivum L. (cv. Yangmai 13) as test material, a field experiment was conducted in Nanjing City to study the effects of simulated reduced solar radiation on the diurnal variation of winter wheat flag leaf photosynthetic rate and the main affecting factors. Five treatments were installed, i. e., 15% (T15), 20% (T20) , 40% (T40), 60% (T60), and 100% (CK) of total incident solar radiation. Reduced solar irradiance increased the chlorophyll and lutein contents significantly, but decreased the net photosynthetic rate (Pn). Under different solar irradiance, the diurnal variation of Pn had greater difference, and the daily maximum Pn was in the order of CK > T60 > T40 > T 20 > T15. In CK, the Pn exhibited a double peak diurnal curve; while in the other four treatments, the Pn showed a single peak curve, and the peak was lagged behind that of CK. Correlation analysis showed that reduced solar irradiance was the main factor affecting the diurnal variation of Pn, but the physiological parameters also played important roles in determining the diurnal variation of Pn. In treatments T60 and T40, the photosynthesis active radiation (PAR), leaf temperature (T1) , stomatal conductance (Gs) , and transpiration rate (Tr) were significantly positively correlated with Pn, suggesting their positive effects on Pn. The intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) and stomatal limitation (Ls) had significant negative correlations with Pn in treatments T60 and T40 but significant positive correlations with Pn in treatments T20 and T15, implying that the Ci and Ls had negative (or positive) effects on Pn when the solar irradiance was higher (or lower) than 40% of incident solar irradiance.

Net one, net two: the primary care network income statement.

Science.gov (United States)

Halley, M D; Little, A W

1999-10-01

Although hospital-owned primary care practices have been unprofitable for most hospitals, some hospitals are achieving competitive advantage and sustainable practice operations. A key to the success of some has been a net income reporting tool that separates practice operating expenses from the costs of creating and operating a network of practices to help healthcare organization managers, physicians, and staff to identify opportunities to improve the network's financial performance. This "Net One, Net Two" reporting allows operations leadership to be held accountable for Net One expenses and strategic leadership to be held accountable for Net Two expenses.

Dry/Wet Conditions Monitoring Based on TRMM Rainfall Data and Its Reliability Validation over Poyang Lake Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianghu Li

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Local dry/wet conditions are of great concern in regional water resource and floods/droughts disaster risk management. Satellite-based precipitation products have greatly improved their accuracy and applicability and are expected to offer an alternative to ground rain gauges data. This paper investigated the capability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM rainfall data for monitoring the temporal and spatial variation of dry/wet conditions in Poyang Lake basin during 1998–2010, and validated its reliability with rain gauges data from 14 national meteorological stations in the basin. The results show that: (1 the daily TRMM rainfall data does not describe the occurrence and contribution rates of precipitation accurately, but monthly TRMM data have a good linear relationship with rain gauges rainfall data; (2 both the Z index and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI based on monthly TRMM rainfall data oscillate around zero and show a consistent interannual variability as compared with rain gauges data; (3 the spatial pattern of moisture status, either in dry months or wet months, based on both the Z index and SPI using TRMM data, agree with the observed rainfall. In conclusion, the monthly TRMM rainfall data can be used for monitoring the variation and spatial distribution of dry/wet conditions in Poyang Lake basin.

Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Álvaro José Back

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min and the return period T (y in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

Rainfall-threshold conditions for landslides in a humid-tropical system

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Matthew C.; Simon, Andrew

1993-01-01

Landslides are triggered by factors such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, and construction on hillslopes. The leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall. A rainfall threshold for rainfall-triggered landsliding is delimited by 256 storms that occurred between 1959 and 1991 in the central mountains of Puerto Rico, where mean annual rainfall is close to or in excess of 2,000 mm. Forty one of the 256 storms produced intense and/or prolonged rainfall that resulted in tens to hundreds of landslides. A threshold fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering storms is expressed as

The rainfall plot: its motivation, characteristics and pitfalls.

Science.gov (United States)

Domanska, Diana; Vodák, Daniel; Lund-Andersen, Christin; Salvatore, Stefania; Hovig, Eivind; Sandve, Geir Kjetil

2017-05-18

A visualization referred to as rainfall plot has recently gained popularity in genome data analysis. The plot is mostly used for illustrating the distribution of somatic cancer mutations along a reference genome, typically aiming to identify mutation hotspots. In general terms, the rainfall plot can be seen as a scatter plot showing the location of events on the x-axis versus the distance between consecutive events on the y-axis. Despite its frequent use, the motivation for applying this particular visualization and the appropriateness of its usage have never been critically addressed in detail. We show that the rainfall plot allows visual detection even for events occurring at high frequency over very short distances. In addition, event clustering at multiple scales may be detected as distinct horizontal bands in rainfall plots. At the same time, due to the limited size of standard figures, rainfall plots might suffer from inability to distinguish overlapping events, especially when multiple datasets are plotted in the same figure. We demonstrate the consequences of plot congestion, which results in obscured visual data interpretations. This work provides the first comprehensive survey of the characteristics and proper usage of rainfall plots. We find that the rainfall plot is able to convey a large amount of information without any need for parameterization or tuning. However, we also demonstrate how plot congestion and the use of a logarithmic y-axis may result in obscured visual data interpretations. To aid the productive utilization of rainfall plots, we demonstrate their characteristics and potential pitfalls using both simulated and real data, and provide a set of practical guidelines for their proper interpretation and usage.

Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

2017-07-01

Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

Measurement accuracy of weighing and tipping-bucket rainfall intensity gauges under dynamic laboratory testing

Science.gov (United States)

Colli, M.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.; Chan, P. W.

2014-07-01

The contribution of any single uncertainty factor in the resulting performance of infield rain gauge measurements still has to be comprehensively assessed due to the high number of real world error sources involved, such as the intrinsic variability of rainfall intensity (RI), wind effects, wetting losses, the ambient temperature, etc. In recent years the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) addressed these issues by fostering dedicated investigations, which revealed further difficulties in assessing the actual reference rainfall intensity in the field. This work reports on an extensive assessment of the OTT Pluvio2 weighing gauge accuracy when measuring rainfall intensity under laboratory dynamic conditions (time varying reference flow rates). The results obtained from the weighing rain gauge (WG) were also compared with a MTX tipping-bucket rain gauge (TBR) under the same test conditions. Tests were carried out by simulating various artificial precipitation events, with unsteady rainfall intensity, using a suitable dynamic rainfall generator. Real world rainfall data measured by an Ogawa catching-type drop counter at a field test site located within the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) were used as a reference for the artificial rain generation system. Results demonstrate that the differences observed between the laboratory and field performance of catching-type gauges are only partially attributable to the weather and operational conditions in the field. The dynamics of real world precipitation events is responsible for a large part of the measurement errors, which can be accurately assessed in the laboratory under controlled environmental conditions. This allows for new testing methodologies and the development of instruments with enhanced performance in the field.

Survival and maturation rates of the African rodent Mastomys natalensis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sluydts, Vincent; Crespin, Laurent; Davis, Stephen

2008-01-01

the model fit. On the other hand we showed that maturation rates were correlated negatively with density the previous month and positively to cumulative rainfall over the past three months. Survival estimates of both adults and subadults varied seasonally, with higher estimates during the increase phase......Survival and maturation rates of female Mastomys natalensis were analysed based on a ten-year onthly capture-recapture data set. We investigated whether direct and delayed density dependent and independent (rainfall) variables accounted for the considerable variation in demographic traits....... It was estimated that seasonal and annual covariates accounted for respectively 29 and 26% of the total variation in maturation rates and respectively 17 and 11% of the variation in survival rates. Explaining the between-year differences in maturation rates with annual past rainfall or density did not improve...

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Dependence of wheat and rice respiration on tissue nitrogen and the corresponding net carbon fixation efficiency under different rates of nitrogen application

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Wenjuan; Huang, Yao; Chen, Shutao; Zou, Jianwen; Zheng, Xunhua

2007-02-01

To quantitatively address the role of tissue N in crop respiration under various agricultural practices, and to consequently evaluate the impact of synthetic fertilizer N application on biomass production and respiration, and hence net carbon fixation efficiency ( E ncf), pot and field experiments were carried out for an annual rotation of a rice-wheat cropping system from 2001 to 2003. The treatments of the pot experiments included fertilizer N application, sowing date and planting density. Different rates of N application were tested in the field experiments. Static opaque chambers were used for sampling the gas. The respiration as CO2 emission was detected by a gas chromatograph. A successive biomass clipping method was employed to determine the crop autotrophic respiration coefficient ( R a). Results from the pot experiments revealed a linear relationship between R a and tissue N content as R a = 4.74N-1.45 ( R 2 = 0.85, P < 0.001). Measurements and calculations from the field experiments indicated that fertilizer N application promoted not only biomass production but also increased the respiration of crops. A further investigation showed that the increase of carbon loss in terms of respiration owing to fertilizer N application exceeded that of net carbon gain in terms of aboveground biomass when fertilizer N was applied over a certain rate. Consequently, the E ncf declined as the N application rate increased.

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Quaresma, Ivânia

2017-04-01

Rainfall is one of the most important triggering factors for landslides occurrence worldwide. The relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence is complex and some approaches have been focus on the rainfall thresholds identification, i.e., rainfall critical values that when exceeded can initiate landslide activity. In line with these approaches, this work proposes and validates rainfall thresholds for the Lisbon region (Portugal), using a centenary landslide database associated with a centenary daily rainfall database. The main objectives of the work are the following: i) to compute antecedent rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression; ii) to define lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds; iii) to estimate the probability of critical rainfall conditions associated with landslide events; and iv) to assess the thresholds performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. In this study we consider the DISASTER database, which lists landslides that caused fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people occurred in Portugal from 1865 to 2010. The DISASTER database was carried out exploring several Portuguese daily and weekly newspapers. Using the same newspaper sources, the DISASTER database was recently updated to include also the landslides that did not caused any human damage, which were also considered for this study. The daily rainfall data were collected at the Lisboa-Geofísico meteorological station. This station was selected considering the quality and completeness of the rainfall data, with records that started in 1864. The methodology adopted included the computation, for each landslide event, of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for different durations (1 to 90 consecutive days). In a second step, for each combination of rainfall quantity-duration, the return period was estimated using the Gumbel probability distribution. The pair (quantity-duration) with the highest return period was

A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

Science.gov (United States)

Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

Determination of Areas Susceptible to Landsliding Using Spatial Patterns of Rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Data, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renato Fontes Guimarães

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Spatial patterns of shallow landslide initiation reflect both spatial patterns of heavy rainfall and areas susceptible to mass movements. We determine the areas most susceptible to shallow landslide occurrence through the calculation of critical soil cohesion and spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data for Paraty County, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Our methodology involved: (a creating the digital elevation model (DEM and deriving attributes such as slope and contributing area; (b incorporating spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM into the shallow slope stability model SHALSTAB; and (c quantitative assessment of the correspondence of mapped landslide scars to areas predicted to be most prone to shallow landsliding. We found that around 70% of the landslide scars occurred in less than 10% of the study area identified as potentially unstable. The greatest concentration of landslides occurred in areas where the root strength of vegetation is an important contribution to slope stability in regions of orographically-enhanced rainfall on the coastal topographic flank. This approach helps quantify landslide hazards in areas with similar geomorphological characteristics, but different spatial patterns of rainfall.

A space-time rainfall generator for highly convective Mediterranean rainstorms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Salsón

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Distributed hydrological models require fine resolution rainfall inputs, enhancing the practical interest of space-time rainfall models, capable of generating through numerical simulation realistic space-time rainfall intensity fields. Among different mathematical approaches, those based on point processes and built upon a convenient analytical description of the raincell as the fundamental unit, have shown to be particularly suitable and well adapted when extreme rainfall events of convective nature are considered. Starting from previous formulations, some analytical refinements have been considered, allowing practical generation of space-time rainfall intensity fields for that type of rainstorm events. Special attention is placed on the analytical description of the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall intensities produced by the raincells. After deriving the necessary analytical results, the seven parameters of the model have been estimated by the method of moments, for each of the 30 selected rainfall events in the Jucar River Basin (ValenciaSpain – period 1991 to 2000, using 5-min aggregated rainfall data series from an automatic raingauge network.

Predicting rainfall erosivity by momentum and kinetic energy in Mediterranean environment

Science.gov (United States)

Carollo, Francesco G.; Ferro, Vito; Serio, Maria A.

2018-05-01

Rainfall erosivity is an index that describes the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion and it is used around the world for assessing and predicting soil loss on agricultural lands. Erosivity can be represented in terms of both rainfall momentum and kinetic energy, both calculated per unit time and area. Contrasting results on the representativeness of these two variables are available: some authors stated that momentum and kinetic energy are practically interchangeable in soil loss estimation while other found that kinetic energy is the most suitable expression of rainfall erosivity. The direct and continuous measurements of momentum and kinetic energy by a disdrometer allow also to establish a relationship with rainfall intensity at the study site. At first in this paper a comparison between the momentum-rainfall intensity relationships measured at Palermo and El Teularet by an optical disdrometer is presented. For a fixed rainfall intensity the measurements showed that the rainfall momentum values measured at the two experimental sites are not coincident. However both datasets presented a threshold value of rainfall intensity over which the rainfall momentum assumes a quasi-constant value. Then the reliability of a theoretically deduced relationship, linking momentum, rainfall intensity and median volume diameter, is positively verified using measured raindrop size distributions. An analysis to assess which variable, momentum or kinetic energy per unit area and time, is the best predictor of erosivity in Italy and Spain was also carried out. This investigation highlighted that the rainfall kinetic energy per unit area and time can be substituted by rainfall momentum as index for estimating the rainfall erosivity, and this result does not depend on the site where precipitation occurs. Finally, rainfall intensity measurements and soil loss data collected from the bare plots equipped at Sparacia experimental area were used to verify the reliability of some

Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Mechanism of shallow disrupted slide induced by extreme rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Igwe, O.; Fukuoka, H.

2010-12-01

On July 16, 2010, extreme rainfall attacked western Japan and it caused very intense rainfall in Shobara city, Hiroshima prefecture, Japan. This rainfall induced hundreds of shallow disrupted slides and many of those became debris flows. One of this debris flows attacked a house standing in front of the exit of a channel, and claimed a resident’s life. Western Japan had repeatedly similar disasters in the past. Last event took place from July 19 to 26, 2009, when western Japan had a severe rainstorms and caused floods and landslides. Most of the landslides are debris slide - debris flows. Most devastated case took place in Hofu city, Japan. On July 21, extremely intense rainstorm caused numerous debris flows and mud flows in the hillslopes. Some of the debris flows destroyed residential houses and home for elderly people, and finally killed 14 residents. One of the unusual feature of both disaster was that landslides are distributed in very narrow area. In the 2010 Shobara city disaster, all of the landslides were distributed in 5 km x 3 km, and in the 2009 Hofu city disaster, most devastated zone of landslides were 10 km x 5 km. Rain radars of Meteorological Agency of Government of Japan detected the intense rainfall, however, the spatial resolution is usually larger than 5 km and the disaster area is too small to predict landslides nor issue warning. Furthermore, it was found that the growth rate of baby clouds was very quick. The geology of both areas are rhyolite (Shobara) and granite (Hofu), so the areal assessment of landslide hazard should be prepared before those intense rainfall will come. As for the Hofu city case, it was proved that debris flows took place in the high precipitation area and covered by covered by weathered granite sands and silts which is called “masa". This sands has been proved susceptible against landslides under extreme rainfall conditions. However, the transition from slide - debris flow process is not well revealed, except

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

Mathematical and physical modeling of rainfall in centrifuge

OpenAIRE

CAICEDO, Bernardo; THOREL, Luc; TRISTANCHO, Julian

2015-01-01

Rainfall simulation in centrifuge models is important for modelling soil-atmosphere interactions. However, the presence of Coriolis force, drag forces, evaporation and wind within the centrifuge may affect the distribution of rainfall over the model. As a result, development of appropriate centrifuge rain simulators requires a demanding process of experimental trial and error. This paper highlights the key factors involved in controlling rainfall in centrifuge simulations, develops a mathemat...

Impact of Rainfall on Multilane Roundabout Flowrate Contraction

Science.gov (United States)

PARKSHIR, Amir; BEN-EDIGBE, Johnnie

2017-08-01

In this study, roundabouts at two sites in the Malaysia were investigated under rainy and dry weather conditions. Two automatic traffic counters per roundabout arm as well as two rain gauge stations were used to collect data at each surveyed site. Nearly one million vehicles were investigated at four sites. Vehicle volume, speeds and headways for entry and circulating flows were collected continuously at each roundabout about arm for six weeks between November 2013 and January 2014. Empirical regression technique and gap-acceptance models were modified and used to analyze roundabout capacity. Good fits to the data were obtained; the results also fit models developed in other countries. It was assumed that entry capacity depends on the geometric characteristics of the roundabout, particularly the diameter of the outside circle of the intersection. It was also postulated that geometric characteristics determine the speed of vehicles around the central island and, therefore, have an impact on the gap-acceptance process and consequently the capacity. Only off-peak traffic data per light, moderate or heavy rainfall were analysed. Peak traffic data were not used because of the presence of peak traffic flow. Passenger car equivalent values being an instrument of conversion from traffic volume to flow were modified. Results show that, average entry capacity loss is about 22.6% under light rainfall, about 18.1% under moderate rainfall and about 5.6% under heavy rainfall. Significant entry capacity loss would result from rainfall irrespective of their intensity. It can be postulated that entry capacity loss under heavy rainfall is lowest because the advantage enjoyed by circulating flow would be greatly reduced with increased rainfall intensity. The paper concluded that rainfall has significant impact of flowrate contraction at roundabouts.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 12; Comparison of Satellite Global Rainfall Algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Alfred T. C.; Chiu, Long S.

1997-01-01

Seventeen months of rainfall data (August 1987-December 1988) from nine satellite rainfall algorithms (Adler, Chang, Kummerow, Prabhakara, Huffman, Spencer, Susskind, and Wu) were analyzed to examine the uncertainty of satellite-derived rainfall estimates. The variability among algorithms, measured as the standard deviation computed from the ensemble of algorithms, shows regions of high algorithm variability tend to coincide with regions of high rain rates. Histograms of pattern correlation (PC) between algorithms suggest a bimodal distribution, with separation at a PC-value of about 0.85. Applying this threshold as a criteria for similarity, our analyses show that algorithms using the same sensor or satellite input tend to be similar, suggesting the dominance of sampling errors in these satellite estimates.

Using Routine Data for Quality Assessment in NeuroNet Telestroke Care

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Theiss, Stephan; Günzel, Franziska; Storm, Anna

2013-01-01

: Routine clinical data from the HELIOS hospital information system were compared before and after implementation of the NeuroNet concept, including neurologic acute stroke teleconsultations, standard operating procedures, and peer review quality management in 3 hospital cohorts: 5 comprehensive stroke...... centers, 5 NeuroNet hospitals, and 5 matched control hospitals. RESULTS: During the study period, the rate of thrombolytic therapy increased by 4.8% in NeuroNet hospitals, while ischemic stroke in-hospital mortality decreased (relative risk reduction ∼29% in NeuroNet and control hospitals). The odds ratio...... for thrombolytic therapy in comprehensive stroke centers compared to NeuroNet hospitals was reduced from 3.7 to 1.3 between 2006 and 2009. Comprehensive stroke care coding according to German Diagnosis Related Groups definitions increased by 45% in NeuroNet (P

Runoff and Sediment Production under the Similar Rainfall Events in Different Aggregate Sizes of an Agricultural Soil

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S. F. Eslami

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Soil erosion by water is the most serious form of land degradation throughout the world, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In these areas, soils are weakly structured and are easily disrupted by raindrop impacts. Soil erosion is strongly affected by different factors such as rainfall characteristics, slope properties, vegetation cover, conservation practices, and soil erodibility. Different physicochemical soil properties such texture, structure, infiltration rate, organic matter, lime and exchangeable sodium percentage can affect the soil erodibility as well as soil erosion. Soil structure is one of the most important properties influencing runoff and soil loss because it determines the susceptibility of the aggregates to detach by either raindrop impacts or runoff shear stress. Many soil properties such as particle size distribution, organic matter, lime, gypsum, and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP can affect the soil aggregation and the stability. Aggregates size distribution and their stability can be changed considerably because of agricultural practices. Information about variations of runoff and sediment in the rainfall events can be effective in modeling runoff as well as sediment. Thus, the study was conducted to determine runoff and sediment production of different aggregate sizes in the rainfall event scales. Materials and Methods: Toward the objective of the study, five aggregate classes consist of 0.25-2, 2-4.75, 4.75-5.6, 5.6-9.75, and 9.75-12.7 mm were collected from an agricultural sandy clay loam (0-30 cm using the related sieves in the field. Physicochemical soil analyses were performed in the aggregate samples using conventional methods in the lab. The aggregate samples were separately filed into fifteen flumes with a dimension of 50 cm × 100 cm and 15-cm in depth. The aggregate flumes were fixed on a steel plate with 9% slope and were exposed to the simulated rainfalls for investigating runoff and

Effect on phloridzin on net rate of liquid absorption from the pleural space of rabbits.

Science.gov (United States)

Zocchi, L; Agostoni, E; Raffaini, A

1996-11-01

Previous indirect findings have suggested the occurrence of solute-coupled liquid absorption from the pleural space, consistent with Na(+)-K(+)-ATPase on the interstitial side plus a Na(+)-H+ and CI(-)-HCO3- double exchange on the luminal side of the pleural mesothelium. To assess whether Na(+)-glucose cotransport also operates on the luminal side, the relationship between net rate of liquid absorption from the right pleural space (Jnet) and volume of liquid injected into this space (0.5, 1 or 2 ml) was determined in anaesthetized rabbits during hydrothoraces with phloridzin (10(-3)M) or with phloridzin plus 4-acetamido-4'-isothiocyanatostilbene-2, 2'-disulphonic acid (SITS; 1.5 x 10(-4)M). The relationship obtained during hydrothoraces with phloridzin was displaced downwards by 0.09 ml h-1 relative to that in control hydrothoraces (P pleural mesothelium, operating simultaneously with the double exchange also under physiological conditions.

Characterizing rainfall parameters which influence erosivity in southeastern Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obi, M.E.; Salako, F.K.

1993-12-01

An investigation was carried out to characterize some selected parameters which influence rainfall erosivity in southeastern Nigeria. Rainfall amount, distribution, duration, intensity, storm types, energy loads and frequency of rain events in the region were studied using data from stations located in three major agroecological zones. Raindrop size and detaching capacity were evaluated in one of the stations for two months. The mean annual rainfall erosivity values for southeastern Nigeria point to the fact that rainfall tend to be highly erosive. 25 refs, 6 figs, 8 tabs

The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

2017-04-01

It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

Rainfall simulation for environmental application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

1977-08-01

Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Shannon Entropy Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Rahimi, A.; Zhang, L.

2012-12-01

Rainfall-Runoff analysis is the key component for many hydrological and hydraulic designs in which the dependence of rainfall and runoff needs to be studied. It is known that the convenient bivariate distribution are often unable to model the rainfall-runoff variables due to that they either have constraints on the range of the dependence or fixed form for the marginal distributions. Thus, this paper presents an approach to derive the entropy-based joint rainfall-runoff distribution using Shannon entropy theory. The distribution derived can model the full range of dependence and allow different specified marginals. The modeling and estimation can be proceeded as: (i) univariate analysis of marginal distributions which includes two steps, (a) using the nonparametric statistics approach to detect modes and underlying probability density, and (b) fitting the appropriate parametric probability density functions; (ii) define the constraints based on the univariate analysis and the dependence structure; (iii) derive and validate the entropy-based joint distribution. As to validate the method, the rainfall-runoff data are collected from the small agricultural experimental watersheds located in semi-arid region near Riesel (Waco), Texas, maintained by the USDA. The results of unviariate analysis show that the rainfall variables follow the gamma distribution, whereas the runoff variables have mixed structure and follow the mixed-gamma distribution. With this information, the entropy-based joint distribution is derived using the first moments, the first moments of logarithm transformed rainfall and runoff, and the covariance between rainfall and runoff. The results of entropy-based joint distribution indicate: (1) the joint distribution derived successfully preserves the dependence between rainfall and runoff, and (2) the K-S goodness of fit statistical tests confirm the marginal distributions re-derived reveal the underlying univariate probability densities which further

Characterizing rainfall in the Tenerife island

Science.gov (United States)

Díez-Sierra, Javier; del Jesus, Manuel; Losada Rodriguez, Inigo

2017-04-01

In many locations, rainfall data are collected through networks of meteorological stations. The data collection process is nowadays automated in many places, leading to the development of big databases of rainfall data covering extensive areas of territory. However, managers, decision makers and engineering consultants tend not to extract most of the information contained in these databases due to the lack of specific software tools for their exploitation. Here we present the modeling and development effort put in place in the Tenerife island in order to develop MENSEI-L, a software tool capable of automatically analyzing a complete rainfall database to simplify the extraction of information from observations. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information derived from atmospheric conditions to separate the complete time series into homogeneous groups where statistical distributions are fitted. Normal and extreme regimes are obtained in this manner. MENSEI-L is also able to complete missing data in the time series and to generate synthetic stations by using Kriging techniques. These techniques also serve to generate the spatial regimes of precipitation, both normal and extreme ones. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information to also provide a stochastic three-day probability forecast for rainfall.

Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

a given amount of rain occurs is important because heavier rainfall leads to greater runoff, greater soil erosion and less infiltration into the water table. A knowledge of rainfall intensity therefore becomes. Keywords. Rainfall intensity; Kerala; cumulative distribution. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 116, No. 5, October 2007, pp. 451–463.

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions. PMID:29657544

Effects of Rainfall-Induced Topsoil Structure Changes on Root-Zone Moisture Regime during the Dry Period

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Feng; Chen, Jiazhou; Lin, Lirong

2018-01-01

Rainfall erosion and subsequent intermittent drought are serious barriers for agricultural production in the subtropical red soil region of China. Although it is widely recognized that rainfall-induced soil structure degradation reduced soil water storage and water-holding capacity, the effects of variation of the rainfall-induced topsoil structure on the subsequent soil water regime during the dry period is still rarely considered. The objective of this study was to ascertain the way of rainfall-induced topsoil structure changes on the subsequent soil water regime during the dry period. In a three-year-long experiment, six practices (CK, only crop; SM, straw mulching; PAM, polyacrylamide surface application; B, contour Bahia-grass strip; SPAM, straw mulching and polyacrylamide surface application; and BPAM, contour Bahia-grass strip and polyacrylamide surface application) were conducted at an 8° farmland with planting summer maize resulting in different topsoil structure and root-zone moisture, to establish and reveal the quantitatively relationship between the factors of topsoil structure and soil drought. Rainfall erosion significantly increased the soil crust coverage, and decreased the WSA 0.25, 0-30 mm soil porosity and mean pore size. There was no significant difference during the raining stage of root-zone water storage between CK and other practices. An index of soil drought intensity ( I) and degree ( D) was established using soil water loss rate and soil drought severity. The larger value of I means a higher rate of water loss. The larger value of D means more severe drought. During the dry period, I and D were significantly higher in CK than in other practices. I and D had significantly positively correlation with the crust size and crust coverage, and negatively with WSA 0.25, 15-30 mm soil porosity and mean pore size. Among of soil structure factors, the soil porosity had the largest effect on I and D. The rainfall-induced topsoil structure changes

Study of 1-min rain rate integration statistic in South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Sujan; Choi, Dong-You

2017-03-01

The design of millimeter wave communication links and the study of propagation impairments at higher frequencies due to a hydrometeor, particularly rain, require the knowledge of 1-min. rainfall rate data. Signal attenuation in space communication results are due to absorption and scattering of radio wave energy. Radio wave attenuation due to rain depends on the relevance of a 1-min. integration time for the rain rate. However, in practice, securing these data over a wide range of areas is difficult. Long term precipitation data are readily available. However, there is a need for a 1-min. rainfall rate in the rain attenuation prediction models for a better estimation of the attenuation. In this paper, we classify and survey the prominent 1-min. rain rate models. Regression analysis was performed for the study of cumulative rainfall data measured experimentally for a decade in nine different regions in South Korea, with 93 different locations, using the experimental 1-min. rainfall accumulation. To visualize the 1-min. rainfall rate applicable for the whole region for 0.01% of the time, we have considered the variation in the rain rate for 40 stations across South Korea. The Kriging interpolation method was used for spatial interpolation of the rain rate values for 0.01% of the time into a regular grid to obtain a highly consistent and predictable rainfall variation. The rain rate exceeded the 1-min. interval that was measured through the rain gauge compared to the rainfall data estimated using the International Telecommunication Union Radio Communication Sector model (ITU-R P.837-6) along with the empirical methods as Segal, Burgueno et al., Chebil and Rahman, logarithmic, exponential and global coefficients, second and third order polynomial fits, and Model 1 for Icheon regions under the regional and average coefficient set. The ITU-R P. 837-6 exhibits a lower relative error percentage of 3.32% and 12.59% in the 5- and 10-min. to 1-min. conversion, whereas the

Stochastic rainfall modeling in West Africa: Parsimonious approaches for domestic rainwater harvesting assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cowden, Joshua R.; Watkins, David W., Jr.; Mihelcic, James R.

2008-10-01

SummarySeveral parsimonious stochastic rainfall models are developed and compared for application to domestic rainwater harvesting (DRWH) assessment in West Africa. Worldwide, improved water access rates are lowest for Sub-Saharan Africa, including the West African region, and these low rates have important implications on the health and economy of the region. Domestic rainwater harvesting (DRWH) is proposed as a potential mechanism for water supply enhancement, especially for the poor urban households in the region, which is essential for development planning and poverty alleviation initiatives. The stochastic rainfall models examined are Markov models and LARS-WG, selected due to availability and ease of use for water planners in the developing world. A first-order Markov occurrence model with a mixed exponential amount model is selected as the best option for unconditioned Markov models. However, there is no clear advantage in selecting Markov models over the LARS-WG model for DRWH in West Africa, with each model having distinct strengths and weaknesses. A multi-model approach is used in assessing DRWH in the region to illustrate the variability associated with the rainfall models. It is clear DRWH can be successfully used as a water enhancement mechanism in West Africa for certain times of the year. A 200 L drum storage capacity could potentially optimize these simple, small roof area systems for many locations in the region.

Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

Science.gov (United States)

Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

2018-05-01

Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

2010-05-01

Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

The HLA-net GENE[RATE] pipeline for effective HLA data analysis and its application to 145 population samples from Europe and neighbouring areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, J M; Buhler, S; Roessli, D; Sanchez-Mazas, A

2014-05-01

In this review, we present for the first time an integrated version of the Gene[rate] computer tools which have been developed during the last 5 years to analyse human leukocyte antigen (HLA) data in human populations, as well as the results of their application to a large dataset of 145 HLA-typed population samples from Europe and its two neighbouring areas, North Africa and West Asia, now forming part of the Gene[va] database. All these computer tools and genetic data are, from now, publicly available through a newly designed bioinformatics platform, HLA-net, here presented as a main achievement of the HLA-NET scientific programme. The Gene[rate] pipeline offers user-friendly computer tools to estimate allele and haplotype frequencies, to test Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE), selective neutrality and linkage disequilibrium, to recode HLA data, to convert file formats, to display population frequencies of chosen alleles and haplotypes in selected geographic regions, and to perform genetic comparisons among chosen sets of population samples, including new data provided by the user. Both numerical and graphical outputs are generated, the latter being highly explicit and of publication quality. All these analyses can be performed on the pipeline after scrupulous validation of the population sample's characterisation and HLA typing reporting according to HLA-NET recommendations. The Gene[va] database offers direct access to the HLA-A, -B, -C, -DQA1, -DQB1, -DRB1 and -DPB1 frequencies and summary statistics of 145 population samples having successfully passed these HLA-NET 'filters', and representing three European subregions (South-East, North-East and Central-West Europe) and two neighbouring areas (North Africa, as far as Sudan, and West Asia, as far as South India). The analysis of these data, summarized in this review, shows a substantial genetic variation at the regional level in this continental area. These results have main implications for population genetics

[Characteristics of nutrient loss by runoff in sloping arable land of yellow-brown under different rainfall intensities].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ling; Liu, De-Fu; Song, Lin-Xu; Cui, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Gei

2013-06-01

In order to investigate the loss characteristics of N and P through surface flow and interflow under different rainfall intensities, a field experiment was conducted on the sloping arable land covered by typical yellow-brown soils inXiangxi River watershed by artificial rainfall. The results showed that the discharge of surface flow, total runoff and sediment increased with the increase of rain intensity, while the interflow was negatively correlated with rain intensity under the same total rainfall. TN, DN and DP were all flushed at the very beginning in surface flow underdifferent rainfall intensities; TP fluctuated and kept consistent in surface flow without obvious downtrend. While TN, DN and DP in interflow kept relatively stable in the whole runoff process, TP was high at the early stage, then rapidly decreased with time and kept steady finally. P was directly influenced by rainfall intensity, its concentration in the runoff increased with the increase of the rainfall intensity, the average concentration of N and P both exceeded the threshold of eutrophication of freshwater. The higher the amount of P loss was, the higher the rain intensity. The change of N loss was the opposite. The contribution rate of TN loss carried by surface flow increased from 36.5% to 57.6% with the increase of rainfall intensity, but surface flow was the primary form of P loss which contributed above 90.0%. Thus, it is crucial to control interflow in order to reduce N loss. In addition, measures should be taken to effectively manage soil erosion to mitigate P loss. The proportion of dissolved nitrogen in surface flow elevated with the decrease of rainfall intensity, but in interflow, dissolved form was predominant. P was exported mainly in the form of particulate under different rainfall intensities and runoff conditions.

Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

2017-02-01

Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha -1 h -1 ) compared to winter (87MJmmha -1 h -1 ). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R 2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

Persistence Characteristics of Australian Rainfall Anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Simmonds, Ian; Hope, Pandora

1997-05-01

Using 79 years (1913-1991) of Australian monthly precipitation data we examined the nature of the persistence of rainfall anomalies. Analyses were performed for four climate regions covering the country, as well as for the entire Australian continent. We show that rainfall over these regions has high temporal variability and that annual rainfall amounts over all five sectors vary in phase and are, with the exception of the north-west region, significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These relationships were particularly strong during the spring season.It is demonstrated that Australian rainfall exhibits statistically significant persistence on monthly, seasonal, and (to a limited extent) annual time-scales, up to lags of 3 months and one season and 1 year. The persistence showed strong seasonal dependence, with each of the five regions showing memory out to 4 or 5 months from winter and spring. Many aspects of climate in the Australasian region are known to have undergone considerable changes about 1950. We show this to be true for persistence also; its characteristics identified for the entire record were present during the 1951--1980 period, but virtually disappeared in the previous 30-year period.Much of the seasonal distribution of rainfall persistence on monthly time-scales, particularly in the east, is due to the influence of the SOI. However, most of the persistence identified in winter and spring in the north-west is independent of the ENSO phenomenon.Rainfall anomalies following extreme dry and wet months, seasons and years (lowest and highest two deciles) persisted more than would be expected by chance. For monthly extreme events this was more marked in the winter semester for the wet events, except in the south-east region. In general, less persistence was found for the extreme seasons. Although the persistence of dry years was less than would have been expected by chance, the wet years appear to display persistence.

Relationship between rainfall and microbiological contamination of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Outbreaks of contamination events in many developing countries occur during periods of peak rainfall. This study presents evidence of direct pulse response of shallow groundwater contamination events to rainfall in Northern Mozambique. The objective of the paper is to establish both a statistical relationship between ...

Developing empirical relationship between interrill erosion, rainfall ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In order to develop an empirical relationship for interrill erosion based on rainfall intensity, slope steepness and soil types, an interrill erosion experiment was conducted using laboratory rainfall simulator on three soil types (Vertisols, Cambisols and Leptosols) for the highlands of North Shewa Zone of Oromia Region.

Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

2012-01-01

textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

2013-01-01

textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. T. Brunetti

2010-03-01

Full Text Available In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four

Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara–Serengeti ... To understand how rainfall influences ostriches, we related changes in ostrich recruitment in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem to rainfall. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

Comparing a simple methodology to evaluate hydrodynamic parameters with rainfall simulation experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Di Prima, Simone; Bagarello, Vincenzo; Bautista, Inmaculada; Burguet, Maria; Cerdà, Artemi; Iovino, Massimo; Prosdocimi, Massimo

2016-04-01

Studying soil hydraulic properties is necessary for interpreting and simulating many hydrological processes having environmental and economic importance, such as rainfall partition into infiltration and runoff. The saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, exerts a dominating influence on the partitioning of rainfall in vertical and lateral flow paths. Therefore, estimates of Ks are essential for describing and modeling hydrological processes (Zimmermann et al., 2013). According to several investigations, Ks data collected by ponded infiltration tests could be expected to be unusable for interpreting field hydrological processes, and particularly infiltration. In fact, infiltration measured by ponding give us information about the soil maximum or potential infiltration rate (Cerdà, 1996). Moreover, especially for the hydrodynamic parameters, many replicated measurements have to be carried out to characterize an area of interest since they are known to vary widely both in space and time (Logsdon and Jaynes, 1996; Prieksat et al., 1994). Therefore, the technique to be applied at the near point scale should be simple and rapid. Bagarello et al. (2014) and Alagna et al. (2015) suggested that the Ks values determined by an infiltration experiment carried applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface could be more appropriate than those obtained with a low height of water pouring to explain surface runoff generation phenomena during intense rainfall events. These authors used the Beerkan Estimation of Soil Transfer parameters (BEST) procedure for complete soil hydraulic characterization (Lassabatère et al., 2006) to analyze the field infiltration experiment. This methodology, combining low and high height of water pouring, seems appropriate to test the effect of intense and prolonged rainfall events on the hydraulic characteristics of the surface soil layer. In fact, an intense and prolonged rainfall event has a perturbing effect on the soil surface

Radar rainfall estimation for the identification of debris-flow precipitation thresholds

Science.gov (United States)

Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco

2014-05-01

Identification of rainfall thresholds for the prediction of debris-flow occurrence is a common approach for warning procedures. Traditionally the debris-flow triggering rainfall is derived from the closest available raingauge. However, the spatial and temporal variability of intense rainfall on mountainous areas, where debris flows take place, may lead to large uncertainty in point-based estimates. Nikolopoulos et al. (2014) have shown that this uncertainty translates into a systematic underestimation of the rainfall thresholds, leading to a step degradation of the performances of the rainfall threshold for identification of debris flows occurrence under operational conditions. A potential solution to this limitation lies on use of rainfall estimates from weather radar. Thanks to their high spatial and temporal resolutions, these estimates offer the advantage of providing rainfall information over the actual debris flow location. The aim of this study is to analyze the value of radar precipitation estimations for the identification of debris flow precipitation thresholds. Seven rainfall events that triggered debris flows in the Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps) are analyzed using data from a dense raingauge network and a C-Band weather radar. Radar data are elaborated by using a set of correction algorithms specifically developed for weather radar rainfall application in mountainous areas. Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of debris flows are identified in the form of average intensity-duration power law curves using a frequentist approach by using both radar rainfall estimates and raingauge data. Sampling uncertainty associated to the derivation of the thresholds is assessed by using a bootstrap technique (Peruccacci et al. 2012). Results show that radar-based rainfall thresholds are largely exceeding those obtained by using raingauge data. Moreover, the differences between the two thresholds may be related to the spatial characteristics (i.e., spatial