WorldWideScience

Sample records for net global emissions

  1. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset Monthly 0.05 degree NetCDF4

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) is a collection of monthly files (see known issues for gaps)...

  2. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, Monthly, 0.05 deg, netCDF4 V004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AG5KMMOH.004 dataset was decommissioned as of December 14, 2016. Users are encouraged to use Version 4.1 of ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, Monthly, 0.05...

  3. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Various methods exist to calculate global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHG) as measures of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agroecosystems. Little is, however, known about net GWP and GHGI that account for all sources and sinks of GHG emissions. Sources of GHG include...

  4. Global Seabird Ammonia Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S. N.; Blackall, T. D.; Dragosits, U.; Daunt, F. H.; Braban, C. F.; Tang, Y. S.; Trathan, P.; Wanless, S.; Sutton, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    Seabird colonies represent a major source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) in remote coastal and marine systems in temperate, tropical and polar regions. Previous studies have shown that NH3 emissions from Scottish seabird colonies were substantial - of similar magnitude to the most intensive agricultural point source emissions. The UK data were used to model global seabird NH3 emissions and suggested that penguins are a major source of emissions on and around the Antarctic continent. The largest seabird colonies are in the order of millions of seabirds. Due to the isolation of these colonies from anthropogenic nitrogen sources, they may play a major role in the nitrogen cycle within these ecosystems. A global seabird database was constructed and used in conjunction with a species-specific seabird bioenergetics model to map the locations of NH3 emissions from seabird colonies. The accuracy of the modelled emissions was validated with field data of NH3 emissions measured at key seabird colonies in different climatic regions of the world: temperate (Isle of May, Scotland), tropical (Ascension Island) and polar (Signy Island, South Georgia). The field data indicated good agreement between modelled and measured NH3 emissions. The measured NH3 emissions also showed the variability of emission with climate. Climate dependence of seabird NH3 emissions may have further implications under a changing global climate. Seabird colonies represent NH3 emission ‘hotspots’, often far from anthropogenic sources, and are likely to be the major source of nitrogen input to these remote coastal ecosystems. The direct manuring by seabirds at colony locations may strongly influence species richness and biodiversity. The subsequent volatilisation and deposition of NH3 increases the spatial extent of seabird influence on nitrogen cycling in their local ecosystem. As many seabird populations are fluctuating due to changing food supply, climate change or anthropogenic pressures, these factors

  5. HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) portion of the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP) Collection maps the net amount of solar...

  6. Global emissions inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dignon, J.

    1995-07-01

    Atmospheric chemistry determines the concentrations of most of the important greenhouse gases except for carbon dioxide. The rate of removal of the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also controlled by atmospheric chemistry. The indirect effects of chemical forcing resulting from the chemical interactions of other species can also affect the concentrations of radiatively important gases such as ozone. In order to establish the contribution of any possible climatic change attributable to individual greenhouse gases, spatially and temporally resolved estimates of their emissions need to be established. Unfortunately, for most of the radiatively important species the global magnitudes of their individual fluxes are not known to better than a factor of two and their spatial distributions are even more poorly characterized. Efforts to estimate future projections of potential impacts and to monitor international agreements will require continued research to narrow the uncertainties of magnitude and geographical distribution of emissions.

  7. HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) portion of the HANPP Collection maps the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through...

  8. Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Estimated Net Migration by Decade: 1970-2000 data set provides estimates of net migration over the three decades from 1970 to 2000. Because of the lack of...

  9. MASTER Global Robotic Net: new sites and new result

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipunov, V.; Kornilov, V.; Gorbovskoy, E.; Tiurina, N.; Kuznetsov, A.; Balanutsa, P.; Chazov, V.; Gress, O.; Kuvshinov, D.; Vladimirov, V.; Buckley, D.; Rebolo, R.; Serra-Ricart, M.; Podesta, R.; Levato, H.; Budnev, N.; Ivanov, K.; Tlatov, A.; Gabovich, A.; Yurkov, V.

    2016-12-01

    MASTER Global Robotic Net is the unique Russian with collaborators of Spain (IAC), South Africa (SAAO) and Argentina (OAFA) astrophysical project for alert, follow-up and survey observations to solve all modern key astronomy tasks: to discover the prompt and earlier optical emission polarization from gamma-ray bursts (GRB 150301B, GRB 150413A, GRB160625B, GRB 161017A, GRB 161023A, etc), to investigate possible sources of gravitational-wave alerts (LIGO/VIRGO) and high energy neutrino alerts (IceCube, ANTARES)in large error-boxes; to discover the the orphan bursts, Supernovae Ia for dark energy characteristics; other SNe, Novae, dwarf novae, etc. to study their characteristics during the outbursts. MASTER investigated more then 400 GRBs, made the most input to optical support of GW150914, investigated more then 60 very high energy neutrino alerts, discovered more then 1300 optical transients, discovered optical polarization variability of V404Cyg

  10. Mercury Emissions: The Global Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercury emissions are a global problem that knows no national or continental boundaries. Mercury that is emitted to the air can travel thousands of miles in the atmosphere before it is eventually deposited back to the earth.

  11. Net greenhouse gas emissions at Eastmain-1 reservoir, Quebec, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tremblay, Alain; Bastien, Julie; Bonneville, Marie-Claude; del Giorgio, Paul; Demarty, Maud; Garneau, Michelle; Helie, Jean-Francois; Pelletier, Luc; Prairie, Yves; Roulet, Nigel; Strachan, Ian; Teodoru, Cristian

    2010-09-15

    The growing concern regarding the long-term contribution of freshwater reservoirs to atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG), led Hydro-Quebec, to study net GHG emissions from Eastmain 1 reservoir, which are the emissions related to the creation of a reservoir minus those that would have been emitted or absorbed by the natural systems over a 100-year period. This large study was realized in collaboration with University du Quebec a Montreal, McGill University and Environnement IIlimite Inc. This is a world premiere and the net GHG emissions of EM-1 will be presented in details.

  12. Net Ecosystem Production and Actionable Negative Emissions Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCicco, J. M.; Heo, J.

    2016-12-01

    Negative emissions strategies, designed to increase the rate at which carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are removed from the atmosphere, are an important aspect of broader strategies for mitigating climate change. Not only is CO2 the dominant greenhouse gas and the one most intimately tied to existing commercial energy use, but it is also part of the global carbon cycle. On the order of 200 PgC•yr-1 circulates between the atmosphere and the major carbon stocks of the terrestrial biosphere, oceans and geosphere. Anthropogenic flows of roughly 10 PgC•yr-1 from fossil fuel use and 1 PgC•yr-1 from land-use change significantly exceed the Earth's natural carbon sink, and this imbalance causes the buildup of carbon in the atmosphere. In addition to strategies for reducing CO2 emissions, increasing negative emissions through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is crucial for reducing carbon cycle imbalance in the near term as well as meeting long-term goals such as a 2°C limit. Terrestrial carbon management is important for both reducing emissions and enhancing sinks. Photosynthesis in terrestrial ecosystems is the form of CDR that is now most actionable, referring to mechanisms that can be economically implemented at meaningful scales without technology breakthroughs. Net ecosystem production (NEP) is a crucial metric for guiding CDR involving the terrestrial biosphere, including options such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and other forms of bio-based mitigation. We derive the necessary conditions for effective implementation of this category of negative emissions measures, emphasizing the importance of NEP measurement, baselines and appropriate methods of carbon accounting. We present a method for quantitative spatio-temporal analysis of land-use and land-cover changes for estimating landscape-scale NEP; provide a preliminary baseline NEP estimate for the continental United States; apply the method to reveal a cautionary tale

  13. Net radiative forcing and air quality responses to regional CO emission reductions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Fry

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Carbon monoxide (CO emissions influence global and regional air quality and global climate change by affecting atmospheric oxidants and secondary species. We simulate the influence of halving anthropogenic CO emissions globally and individually from 10 regions on surface and tropospheric ozone, methane, and aerosol concentrations using a global chemical transport model (MOZART-4 for the year 2005. Net radiative forcing (RF is then estimated using the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory standalone radiative transfer model. We estimate that halving global CO emissions decreases global annual average concentrations of surface ozone by 0.45 ppbv, tropospheric methane by 73 ppbv, and global annual net RF by 36.1 mW m−2, nearly equal to the sum of changes from the 10 regional reductions. Global annual net RF per unit change in emissions and the 100 yr global warming potential (GWP100 are estimated as −0.124 mW m−2 (Tg CO−1 and 1.34, respectively, for the global CO reduction, and ranging from −0.115 to −0.131 mW m−2 (Tg CO−1 and 1.26 to 1.44 across 10 regions, with the greatest sensitivities for regions in the tropics. The net RF distributions show widespread cooling corresponding to the O3 and CH4 decreases, and localized positive and negative net RFs due to changes in aerosols. The strongest annual net RF impacts occur within the tropics (28° S–28° N followed by the northern midlatitudes (28° N–60° N, independent of reduction region, while the greatest changes in surface CO and ozone concentrations occur within the reduction region. Some regional reductions strongly influence the air quality in other regions, such as East Asia, which has an impact on US surface ozone that is 93% of that from North America. Changes in the transport of CO and downwind ozone production clearly exceed the direct export of ozone from each reduction region. The small variation in CO GWPs among world regions suggests that future international

  14. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, Jerry M.; Mcguire, A. D.; Kicklighter, David W.; Moore, Berrien, III; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Schloss, Annette L.

    1993-01-01

    A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

  15. The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

    2010-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate

  16. Net radiative forcing due to changes in regional emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Vaishali; Mauzerall, Denise; Horowitz, Larry; Schwarzkopf, M. Daniel; Ramaswamy, V.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2005-12-01

    The global distribution of tropospheric ozone (O3) depends on the emission of precursors, chemistry, and transport. For small perturbations to emissions, the global radiative forcing resulting from changes in O3 can be expressed as a sum of forcings from emission changes in different regions. Tropospheric O3 is considered in present climate policies only through the inclusion of indirect effect of CH4 on radiative forcing through its impact on O3 concentrations. The short-lived O3 precursors (NOx, CO, and NMHCs) are not directly included in the Kyoto Protocol or any similar climate mitigation agreement. In this study, we quantify the global radiative forcing resulting from a marginal reduction (10%) in anthropogenic emissions of NOx alone from nine geographic regions and a combined marginal reduction in NOx, CO, and NMHCs emissions from three regions. We simulate, using the global chemistry transport model MOZART-2, the change in the distribution of global O3 resulting from these emission reductions. In addition to the short-term reduction in O3, these emission reductions also increase CH4 concentrations (by decreasing OH); this increase in CH4 in turn counteracts part of the initial reduction in O3 concentrations. We calculate the global radiative forcing resulting from the regional emission reductions, accounting for changes in both O3 and CH4. Our results show that changes in O3 production and resulting distribution depend strongly on the geographical location of the reduction in precursor emissions. We find that the global O3 distribution and radiative forcing are most sensitive to changes in precursor emissions from tropical regions and least sensitive to changes from midlatitude and high-latitude regions. Changes in CH4 and O3 concentrations resulting from NOx emission reductions alone produce offsetting changes in radiative forcing, leaving a small positive residual forcing (warming) for all regions. In contrast, for combined reductions of anthropogenic

  17. Water use efficiency of net primary production in global terrestrial ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Water use efficiency; global terrestrial ecosystems; MODIS; net primary production; evapotranspiration;. Köppen–Geiger climate classification. ... Terrestrial plants fix or trap carbon dioxide via photosynthesis to produce the material ...... S W 2007 Evaluating water stress controls on primary production in biogeochemical and ...

  18. Distinguishing between Net and Global DIF in Polytomous Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penfield, Randall D.

    2010-01-01

    In this article, I address two competing conceptions of differential item functioning (DIF) in polytomously scored items. The first conception, referred to as net DIF, concerns between-group differences in the conditional expected value of the polytomous response variable. The second conception, referred to as global DIF, concerns the conditional…

  19. A global meta-analysis on the impact of management practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from cropland soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural practices contribute significant amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but little is known about their effects on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of carbon dioxide emissions per unit area or crop yield. Se...

  20. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  1. Limiting net greenhouse gas emissions in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, R A; Watts, E C; Williams, E R [eds.

    1991-09-01

    In 2988 the Congress requested DOE produce a study on carbon dioxide inventory and policy to provide an inventory of emissions sources and to analyze policies to achieve a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in 5 to 10 years and a 50% reduction in 15 to 20 years. This report presents the results of that study. Energy and environmental technology data were analyzed using computational analysis models. This information was then evaluated, drawing on current scientific understanding of global climate change, the possible consequences of anthropogenic climate change (change caused by human activity), and the relationship between energy production and use and the emission of radiactively important gases. Topics discussed include: energy and environmental technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, fossil energy production and electricity generation technologies, nuclear energy technology, renewable energy technologies, energy storage, transmission, and distribution technology, transportation, technology, industrial technology, residential and commercial building technology, greenhouse gas removal technology, approaches to restructuring the demand for energy.

  2. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph; Riahi, Keywan; Hare, William

    2015-10-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO2. Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO2 emissions.

  3. MGS SAMPLER THERMAL EMISSION SPECTROMETER GLOBAL TEMPERATURE

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This archive contains Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) 25-micron global surface temperature data, collected during the ANS portion of the Mars Global Surveyor...

  4. The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Shindell

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2 and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until ~1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low-sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogenaities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by

  5. Role of anthropogenic direct heat emissions in global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Fei; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Li, Pengfei

    2015-01-01

    The anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are widely realized as the predominant drivers of global warming, but the huge and increasing anthropogenic direct heat emissions (AHE) has not gained enough attention in terms of its role in the warming of the climate system. Based on two reasonable assumptions of (1) AHE eventually transfers to the Earth energy system and (2) the net warming is only driven by the net radioactive forcing (RF) from either GHG or other causes, we analyzed the role of AHE in global warming. The mean annual total AHE of the four main sources including energy consumption, residual heat of electricity generation, biomass decomposition by land use and cover change (LUCC) and food consumption was estimated to be 4.41*10^20 J in 1970-2010, accounting for 6.23% of the net annual heat increase of the Earth reported by IPCC AR5 for the period. The mean annual radioactive forcing (RF) by AHE was up to 29.94 mW m^(-2) globally in 1981-2010, less than the annual net increase of total GH...

  6. Limiting net greenhouse gas emissions in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, R A; Watts, E C; Williams, E R [eds.

    1991-09-01

    In 1988, Congress requested that DOE produce a study on carbon dioxide inventory and policy to provide an inventory of emissions sources and to analyze policies to achieve a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in 5 to 10 years and a 50% reduction in 15 to 20 years. Energy and environmental technology data were analyzed using computational analysis models. This information was then evaluated, drawing on current scientific understanding of global climate change, the possible consequences of anthropogenic climate change (change caused by human activity) and the relationship between energy production and use and the emission of radiatively important gases. Topics discussed include: state of the science in estimating atmosphere/climate change relationships, the potential consequences of atmosphere/climate change, us greenhouse emissions past and present, an approach to analyzing the technical potential and cost of reducing US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, current policy base and National Energy Strategy actions, fiscal instruments, regulatory instruments, combined strategies and instruments, macroeconomic impacts, carbon taxation and international trade, a comparison to other studies.

  7. Comparison of net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by management practices in two dryland cropping sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little is known about the effect of management practices on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dryland cropping systems. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of a combinat...

  8. Net summertime emission of ammonia from corn and triticale fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Undine; Smith, Jeremy; Brümmer, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Recent advancements in laser spectrometry offer new opportunities to investigate ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of environmentally relevant trace gases. In this study, we used a quantum cascade laser (QCL) absorption spectrometer to continuously measure high-frequency concentrations of ammonia and the net exchange between an agricultural site and the atmosphere based on the eddy-covariance approach. The footprint was split into two main sectors, one planted with corn (Zea mays) and the other one with triticale. Ammonia concentrations were highly variable between 2 and almost 100 ppb with an average value of 8.1 ppb during the observation period from April to September 2015. While both deposition and emission of ammonia was observed, the total campaign exchange resulted in a loss of 3.3 kg NH3-N ha-1. Highest average emission fluxes of 65 ng N m-2 s-1 were recorded after fertilization at the beginning of the campaign in April and May. Afterwards the exchange of ammonia with the atmosphere decreased considerably, but the site remained on average a consistent source with sporadic lower peaks and an average flux of 13 ng N m-2 s-1. While management in the form of fertilization was the main driver for ammonia concentration and exchange at the site, biophysical controls from temperature, wind regime, and surface wetness are also presented.

  9. Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, H.; Unger, N.

    2015-10-01

    We assess the regional and global integrated radiative forcing on 20- and 100-year time horizons caused by a one-year pulse of present day pollution emissions from 10 megacity areas: Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York City, Sao Paulo, Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai and Manila. The assessment includes well-mixed greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4); and short-lived climate forcers: tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine mode aerosol particles (sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, primary and secondary organic aerosol). All megacities contribute net global warming on both time horizons. Most of the 10 megacity areas exert a net negative effect on their own regional radiation budget that is 10-100 times larger in magnitude than their global radiative effects. Of the cities examined, Beijing, New Delhi, Shanghai and New York contribute most to global warming with values ranging from +0.03 to 0.05 Wm-2yr on short timescales and +0.07-0.10 Wm-2yr on long timescales. Regional net 20-year radiative effects are largest for Mexico City (-0.84 Wm-2yr) and Beijing (-0.78 Wm-2yr). Megacity reduction of non-CH4 O3 precursors to improve air quality offers zero co-benefits to global climate. Megacity reduction of aerosols to improve air quality offers co-benefits to the regional radiative budget but minimal or no co-benefits to global climate with the exception of black carbon reductions in a few cities, especially Beijing and New Delhi. Results suggest that air pollution and global climate change mitigation can be treated as separate environmental issues in policy at the megacity level with the exception of CH4 action. Individual megacity reduction of CO2 and CH4 emissions can mitigate global warming and therefore offers climate safety improvements to the entire planet.

  10. Global CO2 emissions from cement production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Robbie M.

    2018-01-01

    The global production of cement has grown very rapidly in recent years, and after fossil fuels and land-use change, it is the third-largest source of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. The required data for estimating emissions from global cement production are poor, and it has been recognised that some global estimates are significantly inflated. Here we assemble a large variety of available datasets and prioritise official data and emission factors, including estimates submitted to the UNFCCC plus new estimates for China and India, to present a new analysis of global process emissions from cement production. We show that global process emissions in 2016 were 1.45±0.20 Gt CO2, equivalent to about 4 % of emissions from fossil fuels. Cumulative emissions from 1928 to 2016 were 39.3±2.4 Gt CO2, 66 % of which have occurred since 1990. Emissions in 2015 were 30 % lower than those recently reported by the Global Carbon Project. The data associated with this article can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.831455" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.831455.

  11. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  12. Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Spahni

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural methane (CH4 emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45°–90° N, naturally inundated wetlands (60° S–45° N, rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003–2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a~significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH4 over the period 1990–2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH4 emissions of +1.11 Tg CH4 yr−1, not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land

  13. HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP) portion of the HANPP Collection represents a digital map of human appropriation of net...

  14. Net, Plasma, Plebs. Margins of the Global City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Vegetti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This essay aim at reading the spatial paradigm, dominant today, based on the flows, the net, the networking, as element of a complex discourse designed to offer epistemological legitimation to the economic-spatial restructuring effects generated by globalization. A paradigm whose functioning produces exclusions, selections, cuts and it maybe constitutes the instrument of new governamental policies. The term “plasma”, introduced by Latour to indicate what is exceeding that model, is here used to refine the more classical concept of plebs. In Hegel as in Foucault, the plebs is a social spread that depends on the forms of material and ideal organizations which liberal society assumes time by time, and that problematizes the political centre of the discourse on the city exactly because is not reducible to it.

  15. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, 1 kilometer, HDF5 V003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) land surface temperature and emissivity (LST&E) data...

  16. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, 100 meter, HDF5 V003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) land surface temperature and emissivity (LST&E) data...

  17. Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

    2015-12-01

    Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

  18. Global Patterns in Human Consumption of Net Primary Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Ricketts, Taylor; Loucks, Colby; Harriss, Robert; Lawrence William T.

    2004-01-01

    The human population and its consumption profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. A particularly compelling measure of humanity's cumulative impact is the fraction of the planet's net primary production that we appropriate for our Net primary production-the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through photosynthesis-can be measured in units of elemental carbon and represents the primary food energy source for the world's ecosystems. Human appropriation of net primary production, apart from leaving less for other species to use, alters the composition of the atmosphere, levels of biodiversity, flows within food webs and the provision of important primary production required by humans and compare it to the total amount generated on the landscape. We then derive a spatial ba!mce sheet of net primary production supply and demand for the world. We show that human appropriation of net primary production varies spatially from almost zero to many times the local primary production. These analyses reveal the uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations depend on net primary production "imports" and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of human appropriation of net primary production.

  19. Forest and grassland cover types reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baah-Acheamfour, Mark; Carlyle, Cameron N; Lim, Sang-Sun; Bork, Edward W; Chang, Scott X

    2016-11-15

    Western Canada's prairie region is extensively cultivated for agricultural production, which is a large source of greenhouse gas emissions. Agroforestry systems are common land uses across Canada, which integrate trees into the agricultural landscape and could play a substantial role in sequestering carbon and mitigating increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. We measured soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes and the global warming potential of microbe-mediated net greenhouse gas emissions (GWPm) in forest and herbland (areas without trees) soils of three agroforestry systems (hedgerow, shelterbelt and silvopasture) over two growing seasons (May through September in 2013 and 2014). We measured greenhouse gas fluxes and environmental conditions at 36 agroforestry sites (12 sites for each system) located along a south-north oriented soil/climate gradient of increasing moisture availability in central Alberta, Canada. The temperature sensitivity of soil CO2 emissions was greater in herbland (4.4) than in forest (3.1), but was not different among agroforestry systems. Over the two seasons, forest soils had 3.4% greater CO2 emission, 36% higher CH4 uptake, and 66% lower N2O emission than adjacent herbland soils. Combining the CO2 equivalents of soil CH4 and N2O fluxes with the CO2 emitted via heterotrophic (microbial) respiration, forest soils had a smaller GWPm than herbland soils (68 and 89kgCO2ha(-1), respectively). While emissions of total CO2 were silvopasture>hedgerow>shelterbelt, soils under silvopasture had 5% lower heterotrophic respiration, 15% greater CH4 uptake, and 44% lower N2O emission as compared with the other two agroforestry systems. Overall, the GWPm of greenhouse gas emissions was greater in hedgerow (88) and shelterbelt (85) than in the silvopasture system (76kgCO2ha(-1)). High GWPm in the hedgerow and shelterbelt systems reflects the greater contribution from the monoculture annual crops within these systems. Opportunities exist for reducing soil

  20. Achieving net-zero emissions through the reframing of UK national targets in the post-Paris Agreement era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pye, Steve; Li, Francis G. N.; Price, James; Fais, Birgit

    2017-03-01

    The Paris Agreement provides an international framework aimed at limiting average global temperature rise to well below 2 ∘C, implemented through actions determined at the national level. As the Agreement necessitates a 'net-zero' emissions energy system by 2100, decarbonization analyses in support of national climate policy should consider the post-2050 period. Focusing solely on mitigation objectives for 2030 or 2050 could lead to blindsiding of the challenge, inadequate ambition in the near term, and poor investment choices in energy infrastructure. Here we show, using the UK as an example, that even an ambitious climate policy is likely to fall short of the challenge of net-zero, and that analysis of the post-2050 period is therefore critical. We find that the analysis of detailed, longer-term national pathways that achieve net-zero is important for future reassessment of ambition under nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

  1. Global civil aviation black carbon emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stettler, Marc E J; Boies, Adam M; Petzold, Andreas; Barrett, Steven R H

    2013-09-17

    Aircraft black carbon (BC) emissions contribute to climate forcing, but few estimates of BC emitted by aircraft at cruise exist. For the majority of aircraft engines the only BC-related measurement available is smoke number (SN)-a filter based optical method designed to measure near-ground plume visibility, not mass. While the first order approximation (FOA3) technique has been developed to estimate BC mass emissions normalized by fuel burn [EI(BC)] from SN, it is shown that it underestimates EI(BC) by >90% in 35% of directly measured cases (R(2) = -0.10). As there are no plans to measure BC emissions from all existing certified engines-which will be in service for several decades-it is necessary to estimate EI(BC) for existing aircraft on the ground and at cruise. An alternative method, called FOX, that is independent of the SN is developed to estimate BC emissions. Estimates of EI(BC) at ground level are significantly improved (R(2) = 0.68), whereas estimates at cruise are within 30% of measurements. Implementing this approach for global civil aviation estimated aircraft BC emissions are revised upward by a factor of ~3. Direct radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation BC emissions is estimated to be ~9.5 mW/m(2), equivalent to ~1/3 of the current RF due to aviation CO2 emissions.

  2. Net Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Bolivia during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010: Results from a Carbon Bookkeeping Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lykke E Andersen

    Full Text Available Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO2 emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990-2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000-2010, while CO2 emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO2 emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.

  3. Net Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Bolivia during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010: Results from a Carbon Bookkeeping Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Lykke E; Doyle, Anna Sophia; del Granado, Susana; Ledezma, Juan Carlos; Medinaceli, Agnes; Valdivia, Montserrat; Weinhold, Diana

    2016-01-01

    Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO2 emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990-2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000-2010, while CO2 emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO2 emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.

  4. Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Zhifu; Meng, Jing; Guan, Dabo; Shan, Yuli; Song, Malin; Wei, Yi-Ming; Liu, Zhu; Hubacek, Klaus

    2017-11-23

    This study seeks to estimate the carbon implications of recent changes in China's economic development patterns and role in global trade in the post-financial-crisis era. We utilised the latest socioeconomic datasets to compile China's 2012 multiregional input-output (MRIO) table. Environmentally extended input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) were applied to investigate the driving forces behind changes in CO2 emissions embodied in China's domestic and foreign trade from 2007 to 2012. Here we show that emission flow patterns have changed greatly in both domestic and foreign trade since the financial crisis. Some economically less developed regions, such as Southwest China, have shifted from being a net emission exporter to being a net emission importer. In terms of foreign trade, emissions embodied in China's exports declined from 2007 to 2012 mainly due to changes in production structure and efficiency gains, while developing countries became the major destination of China's export emissions.

  5. 10 CFR 300.7 - Net emission reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... the likely direct and indirect effects of the actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (d... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.7... gases listed in the definition of “greenhouse gases” in § 300.2 are eligible for registration. (b...

  6. MercNet: A national monitoring network to assess responses to changing mercury emissions in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeltz, D.; Evers, D.C.; Driscoll, C.T.; Artz, R.; Cohen, M.; Gay, D.; Haeuber, R.; Krabbenhoft, D.P.; Mason, R.; Morris, K.; Wiener, J.G.

    2011-01-01

    A partnership of federal and state agencies, tribes, industry, and scientists from academic research and environmental organizations is establishing a national, policy-relevant mercury monitoring network, called MercNet, to address key questions concerning changes in anthropogenic mercury emissions and deposition, associated linkages to ecosystem effects, and recovery from mercury contamination. This network would quantify mercury in the atmosphere, land, water, and biota in terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems to provide a national scientific capability for evaluating the benefits and effectiveness of emission controls. Program development began with two workshops, convened to establish network goals, to select key indicators for monitoring, to propose a geographic network of monitoring sites, and to design a monitoring plan. MercNet relies strongly on multi-institutional partnerships to secure the capabilities and comprehensive data that are needed to develop, calibrate, and refine predictive mercury models and to guide effective management. Ongoing collaborative efforts include the: (1) development of regional multi-media databases on mercury in the Laurentian Great Lakes, northeastern United States, and eastern Canada; (2) syntheses and reporting of these data for the scientific and policy communities; and (3) evaluation of potential monitoring sites. The MercNet approach could be applied to the development of other monitoring programs, such as emerging efforts to monitor and assess global mercury emission controls. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

  7. SMAP L4 Global Daily 9 km Carbon Net Ecosystem Exchange V003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Level-4 (L4) carbon product (SPL4CMDL) provides global gridded daily estimates of net ecosystem carbon (CO2) exchange derived using a satellite data based...

  8. Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Guenther

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Reactive gases and aerosols are produced by terrestrial ecosystems, processed within plant canopies, and can then be emitted into the above-canopy atmosphere. Estimates of the above-canopy fluxes are needed for quantitative earth system studies and assessments of past, present and future air quality and climate. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN is described and used to quantify net terrestrial biosphere emission of isoprene into the atmosphere. MEGAN is designed for both global and regional emission modeling and has global coverage with ~1 km2 spatial resolution. Field and laboratory investigations of the processes controlling isoprene emission are described and data available for model development and evaluation are summarized. The factors controlling isoprene emissions include biological, physical and chemical driving variables. MEGAN driving variables are derived from models and satellite and ground observations. Tropical broadleaf trees contribute almost half of the estimated global annual isoprene emission due to their relatively high emission factors and because they are often exposed to conditions that are conducive for isoprene emission. The remaining flux is primarily from shrubs which have a widespread distribution. The annual global isoprene emission estimated with MEGAN ranges from about 500 to 750 Tg isoprene (440 to 660 Tg carbon depending on the driving variables which include temperature, solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, and plant functional type. The global annual isoprene emission estimated using the standard driving variables is ~600 Tg isoprene. Differences in driving variables result in emission estimates that differ by more than a factor of three for specific times and locations. It is difficult to evaluate isoprene emission estimates using the concentration distributions simulated using chemistry and transport models, due to the substantial uncertainties in other model components, but at

  9. Net change in carbon emissions with increased wood energy use in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash Nepal; David N. Wear; Kenneth E. Skog

    2014-01-01

    Use of wood biomass for energy results in carbon (C) emissions at the time of burning and alters C stocks on the land because of harvest, regrowth, and changes in land use or management. This study evaluates the potential effects of expanded woody biomass energy use (for heat and power) on net C emissions over time. A scenario with increased wood energy use is compared...

  10. Decomposition of Net CO2 Emission in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area of Central China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Policy-makers have been sharing growing concerns that climate change has significant impacts on human society and economic activates. Knowledge of the influencing factors of CO2 emission is the crucial step to reduce it. In this paper, both CO2 emission and CO2 sink on a city-level of the nine cities in Wuhan Metropolitan Area are calculated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approach. Moreover, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI model was employed to decompose the net CO2 emission from 2001 to 2009. Results showed that (1 the largest amount of CO2 emission comes from energy while the largest amount CO2 sink comes from cropland; (2 economic level (S was the largest positive driving factor for net CO2 emission growth in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, population (P also played a positive driving role, but with very weak contribution; and as negative inhibiting factors, energy structure (E and energy efficiency (C significantly reduced the net CO2 emission.

  11. Water use efficiency of net primary production in global terrestrial ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The carbon and water cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, which are strongly coupled via water use efficiency (WUE), are influenced by global climate change. To explore the relationship between the carbon and water cycles and predict the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is necessary to study the WUE in ...

  12. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  13. Composite global emissions of reactive chlorine from anthropogenic and natural sources: Reactive Chlorine Emissions Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keene, William. C.; Khalil, M. Aslam K.; Erickson, David. J.; McCulloch, Archie; Graedel, Thomas E.; Lobert, Jürgen M.; Aucott, Michael L.; Gong, Sun Ling; Harper, David B.; Kleiman, Gary; Midgley, Pauline; Moore, Robert M.; Seuzaret, Christophe; Sturges, William T.; Benkovitz, Carmen M.; Koropalov, Valentin; Barrie, Leonard A.; Li, Yi Fan

    1999-04-01

    Emission inventories for major reactive tropospheric Cl species (particulate Cl, HCl, ClNO2, CH3Cl, CHCl3, CH3CCl3, C2Cl4, C2HCl3, CH2Cl2, and CHClF2) were integrated across source types (terrestrial biogenic and oceanic emissions, sea-salt production and dechlorination, biomass burning, industrial emissions, fossil-fuel combustion, and incineration). Composite emissions were compared with known sinks to assess budget closure; relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic sources were differentiated. Model calculations suggest that conventional acid-displacement reactions involving S(IV) + O3, (IV) + O3 H2O2, and H2SO4 and HNO3 scavenging account for minor fractions of sea-salt dechlorination globally. Other important chemical pathways involving sea-salt aerosol apparently produce most volatile chlorine in the troposphere. The combined emissions of CH3Cl from known sources account for about half of the modeled sink, suggesting fluxes from known sources were underestimated, the OH sink was overestimated, or significant unidentified sources exist. Anthropogenic activities (primarily biomass burning) contribute about half the net CH3Cl emitted from known sources. Anthropogenic emissions account for only about 10% of the modeled CHCl3 sink. Although poorly constrained, significant fractions of tropospheric CH2Cl2 (25%), C2HCl3 (10%), and C2Cl4 (5%) are emitted from the surface ocean; the combined contributions of C2Cl4 and C2HCl3 from all natural sources may be substantially higher than the estimated oceanic flux.

  14. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, Guido R.; Randerson, James T.; Giglio, Louis; van Leeuwen, Thijs T.; Chen, Yang; Rogers, Brendan M.; Mu, Mingquan; van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Morton, Douglas C.; Collatz, G. James; Yokelson, Robert J.; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.

    2017-09-01

    Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997-2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1) new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2) a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3) modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4) fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25°) and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s) were 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr-1) during 1997-2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr-1) and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr-1). These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3) during 1997-2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %), mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (-19 %) to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and grasslands. For trace gas and aerosol emissions, differences between

  15. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1 new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2 a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3 modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4 fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25° and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s were 2.2  ×  1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1 during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1 and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1. These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3 during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %, mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 % to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and

  16. Modelling Local and Global Behaviour: Petri Nets and Event Coordination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2012-01-01

    call it the Event Coordination Notation (ECNO). ECNO’s coordination diagrams define the global behaviour of a system only: they define how the local behaviour is coordinated and jointly executed in so-called interactions. In principle, ECNO is independent from a specific notation for modelling......Today, it is possible to generate major parts of a software system from models. Most of the generated code, however, concerns the structural parts of the software; the code that concerns the actual functionality or behaviour of the software system is often still programmed manually. In order...... with existing structural models, with existing code, and with other behavioural models. Basically, coordination diagrams define how the local behaviour of the individual parts of the software is coordinated with each other. The main concepts of coordination diagrams and their semantics are stabilising now: We...

  17. AMSR-E/Aqua Monthly Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System...

  18. Global Surface Net-Radiation at 5 km from MODIS Terra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manish Verma

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Reliable and fine resolution estimates of surface net-radiation are required for estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, currently, fine resolution estimates of net-radiation are not available and consequently it is challenging to develop multi-year estimates of evapotranspiration at scales that can capture land surface heterogeneity and are relevant for policy and decision-making. We developed and evaluated a global net-radiation product at 5 km and 8-day resolution by combining mutually consistent atmosphere and land data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on board Terra. Comparison with net-radiation measurements from 154 globally distributed sites (414 site-years from the FLUXNET and Surface Radiation budget network (SURFRAD showed that the net-radiation product agreed well with measurements across seasons and climate types in the extratropics (Wilmott’s index ranged from 0.74 for boreal to 0.63 for Mediterranean sites. Mean absolute deviation between the MODIS and measured net-radiation ranged from 38.0 ± 1.8 W∙m−2 in boreal to 72.0 ± 4.1 W∙m−2 in the tropical climates. The mean bias was small and constituted only 11%, 0.7%, 8.4%, 4.2%, 13.3%, and 5.4% of the mean absolute error in daytime net-radiation in boreal, Mediterranean, temperate-continental, temperate, semi-arid, and tropical climate, respectively. To assess the accuracy of the broader spatiotemporal patterns, we upscaled error-quantified MODIS net-radiation and compared it with the net-radiation estimates from the coarse spatial (1° × 1° but high temporal resolution gridded net-radiation product from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES. Our estimates agreed closely with the net-radiation estimates from the CERES. Difference between the two was less than 10 W·m−2 in 94% of the total land area. MODIS net-radiation product will be a valuable resource for the

  19. Energy balance of the global photovoltaic (PV) industry--is the PV industry a net electricity producer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Michael; Benson, Sally M

    2013-04-02

    A combination of declining costs and policy measures motivated by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and energy security have driven rapid growth in the global installed capacity of solar photovoltaics (PV). This paper develops a number of unique data sets, namely the following: calculation of distribution of global capacity factor for PV deployment; meta-analysis of energy consumption in PV system manufacture and deployment; and documentation of reduction in energetic costs of PV system production. These data are used as input into a new net energy analysis of the global PV industry, as opposed to device level analysis. In addition, the paper introduces a new concept: a model tracking energetic costs of manufacturing and installing PV systems, including balance of system (BOS) components. The model is used to forecast electrical energy requirements to scale up the PV industry and determine the electricity balance of the global PV industry to 2020. Results suggest that the industry was a net consumer of electricity as recently as 2010. However, there is a >50% that in 2012 the PV industry is a net electricity provider and will "pay back" the electrical energy required for its early growth before 2020. Further reducing energetic costs of PV deployment will enable more rapid growth of the PV industry. There is also great potential to increase the capacity factor of PV deployment. These conclusions have a number of implications for R&D and deployment, including the following: monitoring of the energy embodied within PV systems; designing more efficient and durable systems; and deploying PV systems in locations that will achieve high capacity factors.

  20. Estimating historical anthropogenic global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850-1990

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefohn, Allen S.; Husar, Janja D.; Husar, Rudolf B.

    It is important to establish a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time when assessing the possible effects of global change and acid rain. This study developed a database of annual estimates of national sulfur emissions from 1850 to 1990. A common methodology was applied across all years and countries allowing for global totals to be produced by adding estimates from all countries. The consistent approach facilitates the modification of the database and the observation of changes at national, regional, or global levels. The emission estimates were based on net production (i.e., production plus imports minus exports), sulfur content, and sulfur retention for each country's production activities. Because the emission estimates were based on the above considerations, our database offers an opportunity to independently compare our results with those estimates based on individual country estimates. Fine temporal resolution clearly shows emission changes associated with specific historical events (e.g., wars, depressions, etc.) on a regional, national, or global basis. The spatial pattern of emissions shows that the US, the USSR, and China were the main sulfur emitters (i.e., approximately 50% of the total) in the world in 1990. The USSR and the US appear to have stabilized their sulfur emissions over the past 20 yr, and the recent increases in global sulfur emissions are linked to the rapid increases in emissions from China. Sulfur emissions have been reduced in some cases by switching from high- to low-sulfur coals. Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has apparently made important contributions to emission reductions in only a few countries, such as Germany.

  1. Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann; Smith, Pete; Porter, John Roy

    2016-01-01

    Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we...... estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements...... allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural...

  2. Drivers of the Growth in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arto, Inaki; Dietzenbacher, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 8.9 Gigatons CO2 equivalent (Gt) in the period 1995-2008. A phenomenon that has received due attention is the upsurge of emission transfers via international trade. A question that has remained unanswered is whether trade changes have affected global emissions.

  3. Effects of organic fertilizer on net global warming potential under an intensively managed vegetable field in southeastern China: A three-year field study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, M.; Li, B.; Xiong, Z. Q.

    2016-11-01

    Organic fertilizer may not only improve soil quality but may also contribute to climate protection by increasing carbon sequestration in agricultural ecosystems. A 3-yr study was conducted with ten consecutive vegetable crops in intensively managed vegetable cropping systems in southeastern China to examine the effects of organic fertilizer application (ORGA) on net global warming potential (net GWP) after accounting for carbon dioxide equivalent emissions from all sources including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, agrochemical inputs and farm operations and sinks (i.e., soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration derived from the net ecosystem carbon budget). Results indicated that ORGA significantly increased ecosystem respiration by 13.9% without obvious effects on CH4 and N2O emissions as compared to local conventional chemical fertilization (CHEM). The SOC sequestration rates during the 3-year observation period were estimated at -0.52 t C ha-1 for the control, -0.42 t C ha-1 for the CHEM plot and 0.27 t C ha-1 for the ORGA plot, respectively, and thus contributed significantly to the net GWP. Overall, compared with CHEM, the ORGA significantly decreased net GWP and greenhouse gas intensity by 15.3% and 27.4%, respectively. Our findings suggest that higher yields and lower greenhouse gas intensities and carbon costs can be achieved by substituting chemical nitrogen fertilizers with organic fertilization strategies.

  4. Modeling impacts of alternative practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from rice-wheat annual rotation in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyang Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Measured data of methane (CH(4 and nitrous oxide (N(2O were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC model to a winter wheat - single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year impacts on net global warming potential (GWP and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI. PRINCIPAL RESULTS: The simulated cumulative CH(4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N(2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH(4 and N(2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1 high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH(4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH(4 emissions, (2 high inorganic N fertilizer increased N(2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N(2O emissions, (3 the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha(-1 yr(-1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4 the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. CONCLUSIONS: In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified

  5. Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

    2012-01-01

    Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID

  6. A Global Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Management Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Cropland Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainju, Upendra M.

    2016-01-01

    Management practices, such as tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization, may affect net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI), but their global impact on cropland soils under different soil and climatic conditions need further evaluation. Available global data from 57 experiments and 225 treatments were evaluated for individual and combined effects of tillage, cropping systems, and N fertilization rates on GWP and GHGI which accounted for CO2 equivalents from N2O and CH4 emissions with or without equivalents from soil C sequestration rate (ΔSOC), farm operations, and N fertilization. The GWP and GHGI were 66 to 71% lower with no-till than conventional till and 168 to 215% lower with perennial than annual cropping systems, but 41 to 46% greater with crop rotation than monocroppping. With no-till vs. conventional till, GWP and GHGI were 2.6- to 7.4-fold lower when partial than full accounting of all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) were considered. With 100 kg N ha-1, GWP and GHGI were 3.2 to 11.4 times greater with partial than full accounting. Both GWP and GHGI increased curvilinearly with increased N fertilization rate. Net GWP and GHGI were 70 to 87% lower in the improved combined management that included no-till, crop rotation/perennial crop, and reduced N rate than the traditional combined management that included conventional till, monocopping/annual crop, and recommended N rate. An alternative soil respiration method, which replaces ΔSOC by soil respiration and crop residue returned to soil in the previous year, similarly reduced GWP and GHGI by 133 to 158% in the improved vs. the traditional combined management. Changes in GWP and GHGI due to improved vs. traditional management varied with the duration of the experiment and inclusion of soil and climatic factors in multiple linear regressions improved their relationships. Improved management practices reduced GWP and GHGI compared with traditional management

  7. A Global Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Management Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Cropland Soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainju, Upendra M

    2016-01-01

    Management practices, such as tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization, may affect net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI), but their global impact on cropland soils under different soil and climatic conditions need further evaluation. Available global data from 57 experiments and 225 treatments were evaluated for individual and combined effects of tillage, cropping systems, and N fertilization rates on GWP and GHGI which accounted for CO2 equivalents from N2O and CH4 emissions with or without equivalents from soil C sequestration rate (ΔSOC), farm operations, and N fertilization. The GWP and GHGI were 66 to 71% lower with no-till than conventional till and 168 to 215% lower with perennial than annual cropping systems, but 41 to 46% greater with crop rotation than monocroppping. With no-till vs. conventional till, GWP and GHGI were 2.6- to 7.4-fold lower when partial than full accounting of all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) were considered. With 100 kg N ha-1, GWP and GHGI were 3.2 to 11.4 times greater with partial than full accounting. Both GWP and GHGI increased curvilinearly with increased N fertilization rate. Net GWP and GHGI were 70 to 87% lower in the improved combined management that included no-till, crop rotation/perennial crop, and reduced N rate than the traditional combined management that included conventional till, monocopping/annual crop, and recommended N rate. An alternative soil respiration method, which replaces ΔSOC by soil respiration and crop residue returned to soil in the previous year, similarly reduced GWP and GHGI by 133 to 158% in the improved vs. the traditional combined management. Changes in GWP and GHGI due to improved vs. traditional management varied with the duration of the experiment and inclusion of soil and climatic factors in multiple linear regressions improved their relationships. Improved management practices reduced GWP and GHGI compared with traditional management

  8. PollyNET: a global network of automated Raman-polarization lidars for continuous aerosol profiling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baars, H.; Kanitz, T.; Engelmann, R.; Althausen, D.; Heese, B.; Komppula, M.; Preißler, J.; Tesche, M.; Ansmann, A.; Wandinger, U.; Lim, J.-H.; Ahn, J. Y.; Stachlewska, I. S.; Amiridis, V.; Marinou, E.; Seifert, P.; Hofer, J.; Skupin, A.; Schneider, F.; Bohlmann, S.; Foth, A.; Bley, S.; Pfüller, A.; Giannakaki, E.; Lihavainen, H.; Viisanen, Y.; Hooda, R. K.; Pereira, S.; Bortoli, D.; Wagner, F.; Mattis, I.; Janicka, L.; Markowicz, K. M.; Achtert, P.; Artaxo, P.; Pauliquevis, T.; Souza, R. A. F.; Sharma, V. P.; van Zyl, P. G.; Beukes, J. P.; Sun, J. Y.; Rohwer, E. G.; Deng, R.; Mamouri, R. E.; Zamorano, F.

    2015-10-01

    A global vertically resolved aerosol data set covering more than 10 years of observations at more than 20 measurement sites distributed from 63° N to 52° S and 72° W to 124° E has been achieved within the Raman and polarization lidar network PollyNET. This network consists of portable, remote-controlled multiwavelength-polarization-Raman lidars (Polly) for automated and continuous 24/7 observations of clouds and aerosols. PollyNET is an independent, voluntary, and scientific network. All Polly lidars feature a standardized instrument design and apply unified calibration, quality control, and data analysis. The observations are processed in near-real time without manual intervention, and are presented online at http://polly.tropos.de. The paper gives an overview of the observations on four continents and two research vessels obtained with eight Polly systems. The specific aerosol types at these locations (mineral dust, smoke, dust-smoke and other dusty mixtures, urban haze, and volcanic ash) are identified by their Ångström exponent, lidar ratio, and depolarization ratio. The vertical aerosol distribution at the PollyNET locations is discussed on the basis of more than 55 000 automatically retrieved 30 min particle backscatter coefficient profiles at 532 nm. A seasonal analysis of measurements at selected sites revealed typical and extraordinary aerosol conditions as well as seasonal differences. These studies show the potential of PollyNET to support the establishment of a global aerosol climatology that covers the entire troposphere.

  9. Revisiting global fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of ethane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzompa-Sosa, Z. A.; Mahieu, E.; Franco, B.; Keller, C. A.; Turner, A. J.; Helmig, D.; Fried, A.; Richter, D.; Weibring, P.; Walega, J.; Yacovitch, T. I.; Herndon, S. C.; Blake, D. R.; Hase, F.; Hannigan, J. W.; Conway, S.; Strong, K.; Schneider, M.; Fischer, E. V.

    2017-02-01

    Recent measurements over the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the long-term decline in the atmospheric burden of ethane (C2H6) has ended and the abundance increased dramatically between 2010 and 2014. The rise in C2H6 atmospheric abundances has been attributed to oil and natural gas extraction in North America. Existing global C2H6 emission inventories are based on outdated activity maps that do not account for current oil and natural gas exploitation regions. We present an updated global C2H6 emission inventory based on 2010 satellite-derived CH4 fluxes with adjusted C2H6 emissions over the U.S. from the National Emission Inventory (NEI 2011). We contrast our global 2010 C2H6 emission inventory with one developed for 2001. The C2H6 difference between global anthropogenic emissions is subtle (7.9 versus 7.2 Tg yr-1), but the spatial distribution of the emissions is distinct. In the 2010 C2H6 inventory, fossil fuel sources in the Northern Hemisphere represent half of global C2H6 emissions and 95% of global fossil fuel emissions. Over the U.S., unadjusted NEI 2011 C2H6 emissions produce mixing ratios that are 14-50% of those observed by aircraft observations (2008-2014). When the NEI 2011 C2H6 emission totals are scaled by a factor of 1.4, the Goddard Earth Observing System Chem model largely reproduces a regional suite of observations, with the exception of the central U.S., where it continues to underpredict observed mixing ratios in the lower troposphere. We estimate monthly mean contributions of fossil fuel C2H6 emissions to ozone and peroxyacetyl nitrate surface mixing ratios over North America of 1% and 8%, respectively.

  10. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2013 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy); Muntean, M. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2013-10-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2012 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focuses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2011 to 2012, and includes not only fossil-fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during gas and oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. The report clarifies the CO2 emission sources covered, and describes the methodology and data sources. More details are provided in Annex 1 over the 2010-2012 period, including a discussion of the degree of uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates. Chapter 2 presents a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, per main country or region, including a comparison between emissions per capita and per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and of the underlying trend in fossil-fuel production and use, non-fossil energy and other CO2 sources. Specific attention is given to developments in shale gas and oil production and oil sands production and their impact on CO2 emissions. To provide a broader context of global emissions trends, international greenhouse gas mitigation targets and agreements are also presented, including different perspectives of emission accounting per country. In particular, annual trends with respect to the Kyoto Protocol target and Cancun agreements and cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade are compared with scientific literature that analyses global emissions in relation to the target of 2{sup 0}C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations. In addition, we briefly discuss the rapid development and implementation of various emission trading schemes, because of their increasing importance as a cross-cutting policy instrument for mitigating

  11. Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

  12. Embodiment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Chinese Economy Based on Global Thermodynamic Potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijie Wang

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the Global Thermodynamic Potential (GTP indicator to perform a unified assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, and to systematically reveal the emission embodiment in the production, consumption, and international trade of the Chinese economy in 2007 as the most recent year available with input-output table and updated inventory data. The results show that the estimated total direct GHG emissions by the Chinese economy in 2007 amount to 10,657.5 Mt CO2-eq by the GTPs with 40.6% from CH4 emissions in magnitude of the same importance as CO2 emissions. The five sectors of Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply, Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals, Nonmetal Mineral Products, Agriculture, and Coal Mining and Dressing, are responsible for 83.3% of the total GHG emissions with different emission structures. The demands of coal and coal-electricity determine the structure of emission embodiment to an essential extent. The Construction sector holds the top GHG emissions embodied in both domestic production and domestic consumption. The GHG emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited household consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions, with a remarkable share of direct emission induced by international trade, such as textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products exports. The fractions of CH4 in the component of embodied GHG emissions in the final demand are much greater than those fractions calculated by the Global Warming Potentials, which highlight the importance of CH4 emissions for the case of China and indicate the essential effect of CH4 emissions on global climate change. To understand the full context to achieve GHG emission mitigation, this study provides a new insight to address China’s GHG emissions status and

  13. The Sower's way. Quantifying the Narrowing Net-Energy Pathways to a Global Energy Transition

    CERN Document Server

    Sgouridis, Sgouris; Csala, Denes

    2016-01-01

    Planning the appropriate renewable energy installation rate should balance two partially contradictory objectives: substituting fossil fuels fast enough to stave-off the worst consequences of climate change while maintaining a sufficient net energy flow to support the world's economy. The upfront energy invested in constructing a renewable energy infrastructure subtracts from the net energy available for societal energy needs, a fact typically neglected in energy projections. Modeling feasible energy transition pathways to provide different net energy levels we find that they are critically dependent on the fossil fuel emissions cap and phase-out profile and on the characteristic energy return on energy invested of the renewable energy technologies. The easiest pathway requires installation of renewable energy plants to accelerate from 0.12TWp/year in 2013 to peak between 6.6 and 10.4 TWp/year, for an early or a late fossil-fuel phase-out respectively in order for emissions to stay within the recommended CO2 ...

  14. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

  15. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  16. Differences in net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity between major rice-based cropping systems in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Zhengqin; Liu, Yinglie; Wu, Zhen; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Pingli; Huang, Taiqing

    2015-12-02

    Double rice (DR) and upland crop-single rice (UR) systems are the major rice-based cropping systems in China, yet differences in net global warming potential (NGWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) between the two systems are poorly documented. Accordingly, a 3-year field experiment was conducted to simultaneously measure methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) in oil rape-rice-rice and wheat-rice (representing DR and UR, respectively) systems with straw incorporation (0, 3 and 6 t/ha) during the rice-growing seasons. Compared with the UR system, the annual CH4, N2O, grain yield and NGWP were significantly increased in the DR system, though little effect on SOC sequestration or GHGI was observed without straw incorporation. Straw incorporation increased CH4 emission and SOC sequestration but had no significant effect on N2O emission in both systems. Averaged over the three study years, straw incorporation had no significant effect on NGWP and GHGI in the UR system, whereas these parameters were greatly increased in the DR system, i.e., by 108% (3 t/ha) and 180% (6 t/ha) for NGWP and 103% (3 t/ha) and 168% (6 t/ha) for GHGI.

  17. Drivers of the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arto, Iñaki; Dietzenbacher, Erik

    2014-05-20

    Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 8.9 Gigatons CO2 equivalent (Gt) in the period 1995-2008. A phenomenon that has received due attention is the upsurge of emission transfers via international trade. A question that has remained unanswered is whether trade changes have affected global emissions. For each of five factors (one of which is trade changes) in 40 countries we quantify its contribution to the growth in global emissions. We find that the changes in the levels of consumption per capita have led to an enormous growth in emissions (+14.0 Gt). This effect was partly offset by the changes in technology (-8.4 Gt). Smaller effects are found for population growth (+4.2 Gt) and changes in the composition of the consumption (-1.5 Gt). Changes in the trade structure had a very moderate effect on global emissions (+0.6 Gt). Looking at the geographical distribution, changes in the emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China) have caused 44% of emission growth whereas the increase in their national emissions accounted for 59% of emission growth. This means that 15% (1.4 Gt) of all extra GHG emissions between 1995 and 2008 have been emitted in emerging countries but were caused by changes in other countries.

  18. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, 1 kilometer, Binary V003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AG1kmB.003 dataset was decommissioned as of December 14, 2016. Users are encouraged to use the ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset 1-kilometer (AG1km.003 -...

  19. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, 100 meter, Binary V003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AG100B.003 dataset was decommissioned as of December 14, 2016. Users are encouraged to use the ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset 100-meter (AG100.003 -...

  20. Global Fire Emissions Database, Version 4.1 (GFEDv4)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset provides global estimates of monthly burned area, monthly emissions and fractional contributions of different fire types, daily or 3-hourly fields to...

  1. Global carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, Peter A.; Hartmann, Jens; Lauerwald, Ronny; Sobek, Sebastian; McDonald, Cory P.; Hoover, Mark; Butman, David; Striegl, Robert G.; Mayorga, Emilio; Humborg, Christoph; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Durr, Hans H.; Meybeck, Michel; Ciais, Philippe; Guth, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) transfer from inland waters to the atmosphere, known as CO2 evasion, is a component of the global carbon cycle. Global estimates of CO2 evasion have been hampered, however, by the lack of a framework for estimating the inland water surface area and gas transfer velocity and by the absence of a global CO2 database. Here we report regional variations in global inland water surface area, dissolved CO2 and gas transfer velocity. We obtain global CO2 evasion rates of 1.8   petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year from streams and rivers and 0.32  Pg C yr−1 from lakes and reservoirs, where the upper and lower limits are respectively the 5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles. The resulting global evasion rate of 2.1 Pg C yr−1 is higher than previous estimates owing to a larger stream and river evasion rate. Our analysis predicts global hotspots in stream and river evasion, with about 70 per cent of the flux occurring over just 20 per cent of the land surface. The source of inland water CO2 is still not known with certainty and new studies are needed to research the mechanisms controlling CO2 evasion globally.

  2. Compilation of a global inventory of emissions of nitrous oxide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, A.F.

    1995-01-01

    A global inventory with 1°x1° resolution was compiled of emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere, including emissions from soils under natural vegetation, fertilized agricultural land, grasslands and animal excreta, biomass burning, forest clearing,

  3. Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard; Liu, Chunlei

    2017-04-01

    The net surface energy flux is central to the climate system yet observational limitations lead to substantial uncertainty (Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013; Roberts et al., 2016). A combination of satellite-derived radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere (TOA) adjusted using the latest estimation of the net heat uptake of the Earth system, and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to estimate surface energy flux globally (Liu et al., 2015). Land surface fluxes are adjusted through a simple energy balance approach using relations at each grid point with the consideration of snowmelt to improve regional realism. The energy adjustment is redistributed over the oceans using a weighting function to avoid meridional discontinuities. Uncertainties in surface fluxes are investigated using a variety of approaches including comparison with a range of atmospheric reanalysis input data and products. Zonal multiannual mean surface flux uncertainty is estimated to be less than 5 Wm-2 but much larger uncertainty is likely for regional monthly values. The meridional energy transport is calculated using the net surface heat fluxes estimated in this study and the result shows better agreement with observations in Atlantic than before. The derived turbulent fluxes (difference between the net heat flux and the CERES EBAF radiative flux at surface) also have good agreement with those from OAFLUX dataset and buoy observations. Decadal changes in the global energy budget and the hemisphere energy imbalances are quantified and present day cross-equator heat transports is re-evaluated as 0.22±0.15 PW southward by the atmosphere and 0.32±0.16 PW northward by the ocean considering the observed ocean heat sinks (Roemmich et al., 2006) . Liu et al. (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. J. Geophys. Res., Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2015JD

  4. Distributed embedded controller development with petri nets application to globally-asynchronous locally-synchronous systems

    CERN Document Server

    Moutinho, Filipe de Carvalho

    2016-01-01

    This book describes a model-based development approach for globally-asynchronous locally-synchronous distributed embedded controllers.  This approach uses Petri nets as modeling formalism to create platform and network independent models supporting the use of design automation tools.  To support this development approach, the Petri nets class in use is extended with time-domains and asynchronous-channels. The authors’ approach uses models not only providing a better understanding of the distributed controller and improving the communication among the stakeholders, but also to be ready to support the entire lifecycle, including the simulation, the verification (using model-checking tools), the implementation (relying on automatic code generators), and the deployment of the distributed controller into specific platforms. Uses a graphical and intuitive modeling formalism supported by design automation tools; Enables verification, ensuring that the distributed controller was correctly specified; Provides flex...

  5. Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Vries, B. de

    2013-01-01

    Travel demand is rising steeply and its contribution to global CO2 emissions is increasing. Different studies have shown possible mitigation through technological options, but so far few studies have evaluated the implications of changing travel behavior on global travel demand, energy use and CO2

  6. The global distribution of ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S. N.; Dragosits, U.; Blackall, T. D.; Daunt, F.; Wanless, S.; Sutton, M. A.

    2012-08-01

    Seabird colonies represent a significant source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) in remote maritime systems, producing a source of nitrogen that may encourage plant growth, alter terrestrial plant community composition and affect the surrounding marine ecosystem. To investigate seabird NH3 emissions on a global scale, we developed a contemporary seabird database including a total seabird population of 261 million breeding pairs. We used this in conjunction with a bioenergetics model to estimate the mass of nitrogen excreted by all seabirds at each breeding colony. The results combined with the findings of mid-latitude field studies of volatilization rates estimate the global distribution of NH3 emissions from seabird colonies on an annual basis. The largest uncertainty in our emission estimate concerns the potential temperature dependence of NH3 emission. To investigate this we calculated and compared temperature independent emission estimates with a maximum feasible temperature dependent emission, based on the thermodynamic dissociation and solubility equilibria. Using the temperature independent approach, we estimate global NH3 emissions from seabird colonies at 404 Gg NH3 per year. By comparison, since most seabirds are located in relatively cold circumpolar locations, the thermodynamically dependent estimate is 136 Gg NH3 per year. Actual global emissions are expected to be within these bounds, as other factors, such as non-linear interactions with water availability and surface infiltration, moderate the theoretical temperature response. Combining sources of error from temperature (±49%), seabird population estimates (±36%), variation in diet composition (±23%) and non-breeder attendance (±13%), gives a mid estimate with an overall uncertainty range of NH3 emission from seabird colonies of 270 [97-442] Gg NH3 per year. These emissions are environmentally relevant as they primarily occur as "hot-spots" in otherwise pristine environments with low anthropogenic

  7. MISR Level 3 Component Global Land product in netCDF format covering a day V004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MISR Level 3 Component Global Land Product in netCDF contains a daily statistical summary of directional hemispherical reflectance (DHR), photosynthetically...

  8. MISR Level 3 Component Global Land product in netCDF format covering a year V004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MISR Level 3 Yearly Component Global Land Product in netCDF contains a yearly statistical summary of directional hemispherical reflectance (DHR),...

  9. MISR Level 3 Component Global Land product in netCDF format covering a month V004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MISR Level 3 Monthly Component Global Land Product in netCDF contains a monthly statistical summary of directional hemispherical reflectance (DHR),...

  10. MISR Level 3 FIRSTLOOK Global Albedo product in netCDF format covering a day V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MISR Level 3 FIRSTLOOK Component Global Albedo Product in netCDF covering a day contains a statistical summary of column albedo 555 nanometer optical depth, and...

  11. MISR Level 3 FIRSTLOOK Global Albedo product in netCDF format covering a month V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MISR Level 3 FIRSTLOOK Component Global Albedo Product in netCDF format covering a month contains a statistical summary of column albedo 555 nanometer optical...

  12. MISR Level 3 FIRSTLOOK Global Aerosol product in netCDF format covering a day V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MISR Level 3 FIRSTLOOK Global Aerosol Product in netCDF format covering a day contains a statistical summary of column aerosol 555 nanometer optical depth, and a...

  13. Net air emissions from electric vehicles: the effect of carbon price and charging strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Scott B; Whitacre, J F; Apt, Jay

    2011-03-01

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may become part of the transportation fleet on time scales of a decade or two. We calculate the electric grid load increase and emissions due to vehicle battery charging in PJM and NYISO with the current generation mix, the current mix with a $50/tonne CO(2) price, and this case but with existing coal generators retrofitted with 80% CO(2) capture. We also examine all new generation being natural gas or wind+gas. PHEV fleet percentages between 0.4 and 50% are examined. Vehicles with small (4 kWh) and large (16 kWh) batteries are modeled with driving patterns from the National Household Transportation Survey. Three charging strategies and three scenarios for future electric generation are considered. When compared to 2020 CAFE standards, net CO(2) emissions in New York are reduced by switching from gasoline to electricity; coal-heavy PJM shows somewhat smaller benefits unless coal units are fitted with CCS or replaced with lower CO(2) generation. NO(X) is reduced in both RTOs, but there is upward pressure on SO(2) emissions or allowance prices under a cap.

  14. Warning signs for stabilizing global CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, R. B.; Le Quéré, C.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Peters, G. P.; Roy, J.; Wu, L.

    2017-11-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in energy efficiency, and a boom in low-carbon renewables such as wind and solar. However, the temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017. For 2017, we project emissions growth of 2.0% (range: 0.8%‑3.0%) from 2016 levels (leap-year adjusted), reaching a record 36.8 ± 2 Gt CO2. Economic projections suggest further emissions growth in 2018 is likely. Time is running out on our ability to keep global average temperature increases below 2 °C and, even more immediately, anything close to 1.5 °C.

  15. The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

    2016-12-01

    The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

  16. The positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing of increasing methane emissions from a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbig, Manuel; Chasmer, Laura E; Kljun, NatasCha; Quinton, William L; Treat, Claire C; Sonnentag, Oliver

    2017-06-01

    At the southern margin of permafrost in North America, climate change causes widespread permafrost thaw. In boreal lowlands, thawing forested permafrost peat plateaus ('forest') lead to expansion of permafrost-free wetlands ('wetland'). Expanding wetland area with saturated and warmer organic soils is expected to increase landscape methane (CH4 ) emissions. Here, we quantify the thaw-induced increase in CH4 emissions for a boreal forest-wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, Canada, and evaluate its impact on net radiative forcing relative to potential long-term net carbon dioxide (CO2 ) exchange. Using nested wetland and landscape eddy covariance net CH4 flux measurements in combination with flux footprint modeling, we find that landscape CH4 emissions increase with increasing wetland-to-forest ratio. Landscape CH4 emissions are most sensitive to this ratio during peak emission periods, when wetland soils are up to 10 °C warmer than forest soils. The cumulative growing season (May-October) wetland CH4 emission of ~13 g CH4  m-2 is the dominating contribution to the landscape CH4 emission of ~7 g CH4  m-2 . In contrast, forest contributions to landscape CH4 emissions appear to be negligible. The rapid wetland expansion of 0.26 ± 0.05% yr-1 in this region causes an estimated growing season increase of 0.034 ± 0.007 g CH4  m-2  yr-1 in landscape CH4 emissions. A long-term net CO2 uptake of >200 g CO2  m-2  yr-1 is required to offset the positive radiative forcing of increasing CH4 emissions until the end of the 21st century as indicated by an atmospheric CH4 and CO2 concentration model. However, long-term apparent carbon accumulation rates in similar boreal forest-wetland landscapes and eddy covariance landscape net CO2 flux measurements suggest a long-term net CO2 uptake between 49 and 157 g CO2  m-2  yr-1 . Thus, thaw-induced CH4 emission increases likely exert a positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing through the 21st century.

  17. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris; Purohit, Pallav; Cofala, Janusz; Rafaj, Peter; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion

  18. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Klimont

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990–2010 global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10, as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC. The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping, presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5°  ×  0.5° longitude–latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global

  19. Global impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthes, S.; Grewe, V.; Sausen, R.; Roelofs, G.-J.

    2005-10-01

    Road traffic is one of the major anthropogenic emission sectors for NOx, CO and NMHCs (non-methane hydrocarbons). We applied ECHAM4/CBM, a general circulation model coupled to a chemistry module, which includes higher hydrocarbons, to investigate the global impact of road traffic emissions on the atmosphere. Improving over previous global modelling studies, which concentrated on road traffic NOx and CO-emissions only, we assess the impact of NMHC-emissions from road traffic. It is revealed that NMHC-emissions from road traffic play a key role for the impact on ozone. They are responsible for (indirect) long-range transport of NOx from road traffic via the formation of PAN, which is not found in a simulation without NMHC emissions from road traffic. Long-range transport of NMHC-induced PAN impacts on the ozone distribution in northern hemisphere regions far away from the sources, especially in Arctic and remote maritime regions. There, during subsidence, PAN acts as a source for NOx, caused by thermal decay. Hence, ozone is produced. In July total road traffic emissions (NOx, CO and NMHCs) contribute to the zonally averaged ozone distribution by more than 12% near the surface in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes and arctic latitudes. In January road traffic emissions contribute near the surface in northern and southern extratropics more than 8%. Sensitivity studies for regional emission show that effective transport of road traffic emissions occurs mainly in the free troposphere. In tropical latitudes of America up to an altitude of 200 hPa, global road traffic emissions contribute about 4% to the ozone concentration.

  20. Development of net energy ratio and emission factor for quad-generation pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudra, Souman; Rosendahl, Lasse; Kumar, Amit

    2014-01-01

    The conversion of biomass to four different outputs via gasification is a renewable technology that could reduce the use of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigates the energy aspects for a new concept of biomass based quad-generation plant producing power, heat......, methanol and methane. Circulating fluidized bed gasifier and the gas technology institute (GTI) gasifier technologies are used for this quad-generation process. Two different biomass feedstocks are considered in this study. The net energy ratio for six different pathways having the range of between 1.......3 and 7.2. The lowest limit corresponds to the wood chips-based power, heat, methanol and methane production pathway using GTI technology. Since more efficient alternatives exist for the generation of heat and electricity from biomass, it is argued that syngas is best used for methanol production. The aim...

  1. Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas M. Kiulia

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Group A rotaviruses (RV are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.

  2. Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winiwarter, Wilfried; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Klimont, Zbigniew; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

    2018-01-01

    We describe a consistent framework developed to quantify current and future anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide and the available technical abatement options by source sector for 172 regions globally. About 65% of the current emissions derive from agricultural soils, 8% from waste, and 4% from the chemical industry. Low-cost abatement options are available in industry, wastewater, and agriculture, where they are limited to large industrial farms. We estimate that by 2030, emissions can be reduced by about 6% ±2% applying abatement options at a cost lower than 10 €/t CO2-eq. The largest abatement potential at higher marginal costs is available from agricultural soils, employing precision fertilizer application technology as well as chemical treatment of fertilizers to suppress conversion processes in soil (nitrification inhibitors). At marginal costs of up to 100 €/t CO2-eq, about 18% ±6% of baseline emissions can be removed and when considering all available options, the global abatement potential increases to about 26% ±9%. Due to expected future increase in activities driving nitrous oxide emissions, the limited technical abatement potential available means that even at full implementation of reduction measures by 2030, global emissions can be at most stabilized at the pre-2010 level. In order to achieve deeper reductions in emissions, considerable technological development will be required as well as non-technical options like adjusting human diets towards moderate animal protein consumption.

  3. Virtual Global Magnetic Observatory VGMO.NET: A Component of the Electronic Geophysical Year Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papitashvili, V.; Petrov, V.; Clauer, R.; Saxena, A.; Papitashvili, N.

    2005-05-01

    During the past decade, many digital geomagnetic datasets have become available only via the World Wide Web. They are not necessarily submitted to the World Data Centers (WDC) as was required for standard magnetic observatories since the International Geophysical Year (1957-1958). As a result, the available worldwide geomagnetic databases have become diverse and distributed, creating an urgent need for more sophisticated search engines capable of identifying these databases on the Web and then retrieving data for scientific analyses. Here we report on a working prototype of the Virtual Global Magnetic Observatory (VGMO.NET), which introduces a new approach for the acquisition of geoscience data distributed worldwide. The VGMO.NET moves information exchange from a simple file transfer to a higher level of abstraction in forming the worldwide "data fabric" of distributed resources through the establishment of self-populating and self-sustaining data nodes. This is an "on-demand" objects-building Internet middleware application that is absolutely transparent to the remote users/clients in its internal data management activity. The VGMO.NET portal/server (i.e., one of the worldwide data fabric nodes) builds transferable data objects only from client requests: first by accessing the internal, server-side database and then, if data are not found locally, going through a pre-set list of Web-based geomagnetic data nodes (including WDC) and retrieving appropriate data for the requested interval. Upon retrieval, the data are converted into a uniform (e.g., flat-file) format and added to the node's database; therefore, future user requests of the same data interval from this node would not force a new search of the Web. Furthermore, the new user's self-populated database can be made available to others through the VGMO.NET as a new remote node (or even a new portal). Thus, every VGMO.NET user can include his/her database into the worldwide geomagnetic data fabric of a

  4. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  5. Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

    2018-02-01

    Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

  6. Self-organized global control of carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhenyuan; Fenn, Daniel J.; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

    2010-09-01

    There is much disagreement concerning how best to control global carbon emissions. We explore quantitatively how different control schemes affect the collective emission dynamics of a population of emitting entities. We uncover a complex trade-off which arises between average emissions (affecting the global climate), peak pollution levels (affecting citizens’ everyday health), industrial efficiency (affecting the nation’s economy), frequency of institutional intervention (affecting governmental costs), common information (affecting trading behavior) and market volatility (affecting financial stability). Our findings predict that a self-organized free-market approach at the level of a sector, state, country or continent can provide better control than a top-down regulated scheme in terms of market volatility and monthly pollution peaks. The control of volatility also has important implications for any future derivative carbon emissions market.

  7. Projections of global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschrey, Barbara; Schwarz, Winfried [Oeko-Recherche Buero fuer Umweltforschung und -beratung GmbH, Frankfurt/Main (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are currently covered under the Montreal Protocol, which focuses on ozone-depleting substances such as CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons), and under the Kyoto Protocol, which controls emissions of HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (perfluorocarbons) and SF{sub 6} (sulfur hexafluoride). This study bridges the gap between political regimes and their reporting systems by giving an overview of banks and emissions of all fluorinated gases in 2005, and projections of banks and emissions of fluorinated gases in 2050. The Montreal Protocol and its amendments will eventually result in the full phase out of CFCs and HCFCs. Developed countries have already completed the phase out of CFCs and will reach full phase out of HCFCs by 2020. Developing countries, in contrast, will phase out CFCs by 2010 and HCFCs by 2030. Although climate-friendly technology is available for most applications, the risk occurs that substitutes for ozone-depleting substances rely on HFCs, which cause global warming. This study determines global emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6} (Kyoto F-gases) in 2050 in a ''business-as-usual'' scenario. The global population is expected to increase to ca. 8.7 billion people, and high economic growth of 3.5% per year is assumed. Emissions in 2050 are quantified for each sector of application as well as for developed and developing countries based on growth rates of each sector. In 2050, total global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are projected to amount to 4 GT CO{sub 2} eq. which equals ca. 5.9% of the total greenhouse gas emissions at this time. Compared to a relatively small share of F-gas emissions ranging around 1.3% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2004, this percentage reflects an enormous increase. Relative to projected direct CO{sub 2} emissions alone, the 2050 F-gas emissions will even account for ca. 7.9%. In case of CO{sub 2} mitigation, this share

  8. Incorrectly Interpreting the Carbon Mass Balance Technique Leads to Biased Emissions Estimates from Global Vegetation Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, M.; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon and have a range of global impacts including influences on climate. Even though fire is a necessary disturbance for the maintenance of some ecosystems, a range of anthropogenically deleterious consequences are associated with it, such as damage to assets and infrastructure, loss of life, as well as degradation to air quality leading to negative impacts on human health. Estimating carbon emissions from fire relies on a carbon mass balance technique which has evolved with two different interpretations in the fire emissions community. Databases reporting global fire emissions estimates use an approach based on `consumed biomass' which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct `burnt carbon' approach. Disagreement between the two methods occurs because the `consumed biomass' accounting technique assumes that all burnt carbon is volatilized and emitted. By undertaking a global review of the fraction of burnt carbon emitted to the atmosphere, we show that the `consumed biomass' accounting approach overestimates global carbon emissions by 4.0%, or 100 Teragrams, annually. The required correction is significant and represents 9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. To correctly partition burnt carbon between that emitted to the atmosphere and that remaining as a post-fire residue requires the post-burn carbon content to be estimated, which is quite often not undertaken in atmospheric emissions studies. To broaden our understanding of ecosystem carbon fluxes, it is recommended that the change in carbon content associated with burnt residues be accounted for. Apart from correctly partitioning burnt carbon between the emitted and residue pools, it enables an accounting approach which can assess the efficacy of fire management operations targeted at sequestering carbon from fire. These findings are particularly relevant for the second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol, since improved landscape fire

  9. Optical polarimetric observations of GRB prompt emissions by MASTER robots-telescopes net.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbovskoy, Evgeny; Lipunov, Vladimir; Kornilov, Victor; Shatskij, Nikolaj; Kuvshi-Nov, Dmitry; Tyurina, Nataly; Belinski, Alexander; Krylov, Alexander; Balanutsa, Pavel; Chazov, Vadim; Kuznetsov, Artem; Zimnuhov, Dmitry; Balanutsa, Pavel; Kortunov, Petr; Sankovich, Anatoly; Tlatov, An-Drey; Parkhomenko, A.; Krushinsky, Vadim; Zalozhnyh, Ivan; Popov, A.; Kopytova, Taisia; Ivanov, Kirill; Yazev, Sergey; Yurkov, Vladimir

    The main goal of the MASTER-Net project is to produce a unique fast sky survey with all sky observed over a single night down to a limiting magnitude of 19 -20mag. Such a survey will make it possible to address a number of fundamental problems: search for dark energy via the discovery and photometry of supernovas (including SNIa), search for exoplanets, microlensing effects, discovery of minor bodies in the Solar System and space-junk monitoring. All MASTER telescopes can be guided by alerts, and we plan to observe prompt optical emission from gamma-ray bursts synchronously in several filters and in several polarization planes. Observations on telescopes capable to observ polarisation of GRB prompt emission have been begun in the summer of 2009. Since summer of 2009 an observations of several GRB have been made. In particular for GRB0910 and GRB091127 optical polarisation has been measured. So, for GRB091127 which supervision have begun all through 91 sec polarisation at level of several tens percent has been registered. (GCN 10231, GCN 10052, GCN 10203)

  10. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    OpenAIRE

    B. B. B. Booth; D. Bernie; D. McNeall; E. Hawkins; J. Caesar; C. Boulton; P. Friedlingstein; D. Sexton

    2012-01-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concen...

  11. Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Steve H. L.; Lee, Gideon L.; Lee, In Hwan; Allroggen, Florian; Ashok, Akshay; Caiazzo, Fabio; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2015-03-01

    Aviation emissions impact surface air quality at multiple scales—from near-airport pollution peaks associated with airport landing and take off (LTO) emissions, to intercontinental pollution attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. Previous studies have quantified aviation’s air quality impacts around a specific airport, in a specific region, or at the global scale. However, no study has assessed the air quality and human health impacts of aviation, capturing effects on all aforementioned scales. This study uses a multi-scale modeling approach to quantify and monetize the air quality impact of civil aviation emissions, approximating effects of aircraft plume dynamics-related local dispersion (˜1 km), near-airport dispersion (˜10 km), regional (˜1000 km) and global (˜10 000 km) scale chemistry and transport. We use concentration-response functions to estimate premature deaths due to population exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and ozone, finding that aviation emissions cause ˜16 000 (90% CI: 8300-24 000) premature deaths per year. Of these, LTO emissions contribute a quarter. Our estimate shows that premature deaths due to long-term exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and O3 lead to costs of ˜21 bn per year. We compare these costs to other societal costs of aviation and find that they are on the same order of magnitude as global aviation-attributable climate costs, and one order of magnitude larger than aviation-attributable accident and noise costs.

  12. Global radioxenon emission inventory based on nuclear power reactor reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinowski, Martin B; Tuma, Matthias P

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric radioactivity is monitored for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, with xenon isotopes 131mXe, 133Xe, 133mXe and 135Xe serving as important indicators of nuclear explosions. The treaty-relevant interpretation of atmospheric concentrations of radioxenon is enhanced by quantifying radioxenon emissions released from civilian facilities. This paper presents the first global radioxenon emission inventory for nuclear power plants, based on North American and European emission reports for the years 1995-2005. Estimations were made for all power plant sites for which emission data were unavailable. According to this inventory, a total of 1.3PBq of radioxenon isotopes are released by nuclear power plants as continuous or pulsed emissions in a generic year.

  13. Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation, globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A; Nassikas, Alexander A

    2018-01-01

    Forest growth provides negative emissions of carbon that could help keep the earth's surface temperature from exceeding 2°C, but the global potential is uncertain. Here we use land-use information from the FAO and a bookkeeping model to calculate the potential negative emissions that would result from allowing secondary forests to recover. We find the current gross carbon sink in forests recovering from harvests and abandoned agriculture to be -4.4 PgC/year, globally. The sink represents the potential for negative emissions if positive emissions from deforestation and wood harvest were eliminated. However, the sink is largely offset by emissions from wood products built up over the last century. Accounting for these committed emissions, we estimate that stopping deforestation and allowing secondary forests to grow would yield cumulative negative emissions between 2016 and 2100 of about 120 PgC, globally. Extending the lifetimes of wood products could potentially remove another 10 PgC from the atmosphere, for a total of approximately 130 PgC, or about 13 years of fossil fuel use at today's rate. As an upper limit, the estimate is conservative. It is based largely on past and current practices. But if greater negative emissions are to be realized, they will require an expansion of forest area, greater efficiencies in converting harvested wood to long-lasting products and sources of energy, and novel approaches for sequestering carbon in soils. That is, they will require current management practices to change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. The improved Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3: contribution of savanna, forest, deforestation, and peat fires to the global fire emissions budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, Guido; Randerson, Jim; Giglio, Louis; Collatz, Jim; Kasibhatla, Prasad; Morton, Doug; Defries, Ruth

    2010-05-01

    reduced trace gases such as CO and CH4, deforestation and peat fires were the largest contributors due to higher emissions of reduced trace gases per unit carbon combusted compared to savanna fires. Net fire carbon losses (tropical deforestation and peat fires) were on average 0.3 Pg C / year, which is likely a conservative estimate because our deforestation rates were lower than reported. Our results provide the first global assessment of the contribution of different sources to total global fire emissions for the past 13 years, and provide the community with more reliable fire emissions estimates that will be updated frequently.

  15. Unconventional Heavy Oil Growth and Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduagu, Experience I; Gates, Ian D

    2015-07-21

    Enormous global reserves of unconventional heavy oil make it a significant resource for economic growth and energy security; however, its extraction faces many challenges especially on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water consumption, and recently, social acceptability. Here, we question whether it makes sense to extract and use unconventional heavy oil in spite of these externalities. We place unconventional oils (oil sands and oil shale) alongside shale gas, coal, lignite, wood and conventional oil and gas, and compare their energy intensities and life cycle GHG emissions. Our results reveal that oil shale is the most energy intensive fuel among upgraded primary fossil fuel options followed by in situ-produced bitumen from oil sands. Lignite is the most GHG intensive primary fuel followed by oil shale. Based on future world energy demand projections, we estimate that if growth of unconventional heavy oil production continues unabated, the incremental GHG emissions that results from replacing conventional oil with heavy oil would amount to 4-21 Gt-CO2eq GtCO2eq over four decades (2010 by 2050). However, prevailing socio-economic, regional and global energy politics, environmental and technological challenges may limit growth of heavy oil production and thus its GHG emissions contributions to global fossil fuel emissions may be smaller.

  16. A theoretical framework for the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux and its implications in the definition of "emissions from land-use change"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Gasser

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a theoretical framework and analysis of the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux in order to discuss possible definitions of "emissions from land-use change". The terrestrial biosphere is affected by two perturbations: the perturbation of the global carbon-climate-nitrogen system (CCN with elevated atmospheric CO2, climate change and nitrogen deposition; and the land-use change perturbation (LUC. Here, we progressively establish mathematical definitions of four generic components of the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux. The two first components are the fluxes that would be observed if only one perturbation occurred. The two other components are due to the coupling of the CCN and LUC perturbations, which shows the non-linear response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thanks to these four components, we introduce three possible definitions of "emissions from land-use change" that are indeed used in the scientific literature, often without clear distinctions, and we draw conclusions as for their absolute and relative behaviors. Thanks to the OSCAR v2 model, we provide quantitative estimates of the differences between the three definitions, and we find that comparing results from studies that do not use the same definition can lead to a bias of up to 20% between estimates of those emissions. After discussion of the limitations of the framework, we conclude on the three major points of this study that should help the community to reconcile modeling and observation of emissions from land-use change. The appendix mainly provides more detailed mathematical expressions of the four components of the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux.

  17. A theoretical framework for the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux and its implications in the definition of "emissions from land-use change"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.

    2013-06-01

    We develop a theoretical framework and analysis of the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux in order to discuss possible definitions of "emissions from land-use change". The terrestrial biosphere is affected by two perturbations: the perturbation of the global carbon-climate-nitrogen system (CCN) with elevated atmospheric CO2, climate change and nitrogen deposition; and the land-use change perturbation (LUC). Here, we progressively establish mathematical definitions of four generic components of the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux. The two first components are the fluxes that would be observed if only one perturbation occurred. The two other components are due to the coupling of the CCN and LUC perturbations, which shows the non-linear response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thanks to these four components, we introduce three possible definitions of "emissions from land-use change" that are indeed used in the scientific literature, often without clear distinctions, and we draw conclusions as for their absolute and relative behaviors. Thanks to the OSCAR v2 model, we provide quantitative estimates of the differences between the three definitions, and we find that comparing results from studies that do not use the same definition can lead to a bias of up to 20% between estimates of those emissions. After discussion of the limitations of the framework, we conclude on the three major points of this study that should help the community to reconcile modeling and observation of emissions from land-use change. The appendix mainly provides more detailed mathematical expressions of the four components of the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux.

  18. Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andres, R.J.; Gregg, Jay Sterling; Losey, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines available data, develops a strategy and presents a monthly, global time series of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions for the years 1950–2006. This monthly time series was constructed from detailed study of monthly data from the 21 countries that account for approximately 80...

  19. Drought dominates the interannual variability in global terrestrial net primary production by controlling semi-arid ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Ling Huang; Bin He; Aifang Chen; Haiyan Wang; Junjie Liu; Aifeng Lű; Ziyue Chen

    2016-01-01

    Drought is a main driver of interannual variation in global terrestrial net primary production. However, how and to what extent drought impacts global NPP variability is unclear. Based on the multi-timescale drought index SPEI and a satellite-based annual global terrestrial NPP dataset, we observed a robust relationship between drought and NPP in both hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, the annual NPP trend is driven by 19-month drought variation, whereas that in the Southern Hemisphere ...

  20. Progress towards GlobalSoilMap.net soil database of Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adhikari, Kabindra; Bou Kheir, Rania; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog

    2012-01-01

    presents recent advancements in Digital Soil Mapping (DSM) activities in Denmark with an example of soil clay mapping using regression-based DSM techniques. Several environmental covariates were used to build regression rules and national scale soil prediction was made at 30 m resolution. Spatial...... content mapping, the plans for future soil mapping activities in support to GlobalSoilMap.net project initiatives are also included in this paper. Our study thought to enrich and update Danish soil database and Soil information system with new fine resolution soil property maps.......Denmark is an agriculture-based country where intensive mechanized cultivation has been practiced continuously for years leading to serious threats to the soils. Proper use and management of Danish soil resources, modeling and soil research activities need very detailed soil information. This study...

  1. From the Collaborative Environment of the Remote Laboratory NetLab to the Global Collaboration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Machotka

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The remote laboratory (RL can be considered as a modern collaborative learning environment, where students acquire skills required for efficient collaboration and communication on a local and global scale, both today and in the near future. The majority of current existing RLs are not constructed to allow the involved participants to collaborate in real time. This paper describes the collaborative RL NetLab, developed at the University of South Australia (UniSA, which allows up to three onshore and/or offshore students to conduct remote experiments at the same time as a team. This allows the online RL environment to become very similar, if not nearly identical to its real laboratory counterpart. The collaboration in the real laboratory is replaced by the “global” on-line collaboration.

  2. Effects of light, temperature and canopy position on net photosynthesis and isoprene emission from sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) leaves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, P.; Guenther, A.; Zimmerman, P.

    1996-01-01

    In June 1993, net photosynthetic rates, stomatal conductance and isoprene emission rates of sweetgum leaves (Liquidambar styraciflua L.) were measured at the top of the forest canopy (sun leaves) and within the canopy at a height of 8-10 m above ground level (shade leaves). Large differences in net photosynthetic rates and stomatal conductance were found between sun and shade leaves. Mean rates of isoprene emission, expressed on a leaf area basis, were significantly lower in shade leaves than in sun leaves (4.1 versus 17.1 nmol m(-2) s(-1)); however, because specific leaf area of sun leaves was lower than that of shade leaves (0.0121 versus 0.0334 m(2) g(-1)), the difference between sun and shade leaves was less, though still significant, when isoprene emissions were expressed on a dry mass basis (45.5 versus 29.0 micro g C g(-1) h(-1)). Saturation of both net photosynthesis and isoprene emission occurred at lower PPFDs in shade leaves than in sun leaves. The effect of leaf temperature on isoprene emissions also differed between sun and shade leaves. Sun leaves lost a significantly greater percentage of fixed carbon as isoprene than shade leaves. The leaf-level physiological measurements were used to derive parameters for a canopy-level isoprene flux model. The importance of incorporating differences between sun- and shade-leaf properties into existing models is discussed.

  3. Net energy payback and CO2 emissions from three midwestern wind farms: An update

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, S.W.

    2006-01-01

    This paper updates a life-cycle net energy analysis and carbon dioxide emissions analysis of three Midwestern utility-scale wind systems. Both the Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) and CO2 analysis results provide useful data for policy discussions regarding an efficient and low-carbon energy mix. The EPR is the amount of electrical energy produced for the lifetime of the power plant divided by the total amount of energy required to procure and transport the materials, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The CO2 analysis for each power plant was calculated from the life-cycle energy input data. A previous study also analyzed coal and nuclear fission power plants. At the time of that study, two of the three wind systems had less than a full year of generation data to project the life-cycle energy production. This study updates the analysis of three wind systems with an additional four to eight years of operating data. The EPR for the utility-scale wind systems ranges from a low of 11 for a two-turbine system in Wisconsin to 28 for a 143-turbine system in southwestern Minnesota. The EPR is 11 for coal, 25 for fission with gas centrifuge enriched uranium and 7 for gaseous diffusion enriched uranium. The normalized CO2 emissions, in tonnes of CO2 per GW eh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

  4. Development of net energy ratio and emission factor for biohydrogen production pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabir, Md Ruhul; Kumar, Amit

    2011-10-01

    This study investigates the energy and environmental aspects of producing biohydrogen for bitumen upgrading from a life cycle perspective. Three technologies are studied for biohydrogen production; these include the Battelle Columbus Laboratory (BCL) gasifier, the Gas Technology Institute (GTI) gasifier, and fast pyrolysis. Three different biomass feedstocks are considered including forest residue (FR), whole forest (WF), and agricultural residue (AR). The fast pyrolysis pathway includes two cases: truck transport of bio-oil and pipeline transport of bio-oil. The net energy ratios (NERs) for nine biohydrogen pathways lie in the range of 1.3-9.3. The maximum NER (9.3) is for the FR-based pathway using GTI technology. The GHG emissions lie in the range of 1.20-8.1 kg CO₂ eq/kg H₂. The lowest limit corresponds to the FR-based biohydrogen production pathway using GTI technology. This study also analyzes the intensities for acid rain precursor and ground level ozone precursor. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Global negative emissions capacity of ocean macronutrient fertilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Daniel P.

    2017-03-01

    In order to meet the goal of limiting global average temperature increase to less than 2 °C, it is increasingly apparent that negative emissions technologies of up to 10 Pg C yr-1 will be needed before the end of the century. Recent research indicates that fertilization of the ocean with the macronutrients nitrogen and phosphorus where they limit primary production, may have sequestration advantages over fertilizing iron limited regions. Utilizing global datasets of oceanographic field measurements, and output from a high resolution global circulation model, the current study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the global potential for carbon sequestration from ocean macronutrient fertilization (OMF). Sufficient excess phosphate exists outside the iron limited surface ocean to support once-off sequestration of up to 3.6 Pg C by fertilization with nitrogen. Ongoing maximum capacity of nitrogen only fertilization is estimated at 0.7 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1. Sequestration capacity is expected to decrease from the upper toward the lower bound over time under continued intense fertilization. If N and P were used in combination the capacity is ultimately limited by societies willingness to utilize phosphate resources. Doubling current phosphate production would allow an additional 0.9 Pg C yr-1 and consume 0.07% yr-1 of known global resources. Therefore offsetting up to around 15% (1.5 Pg C yr-1) of annual global CO2 emissions is assessed as being technically plausible. Environmental risks which to date have received little quantitative evaluation, could also limit the scale of implementation. These results reinforce the need to consider a multi-faceted approach to greenhouse gasses, including a reduction in emissions coupled with further research into negative emissions technologies.

  6. Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning represents an important source of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases, yet little is known about its interannual variability or the underlying mechanisms regulating this variability at continental to global scales. Here we investigated fire emissions during the 8 year period from 1997 to 2004 using satellite data and the CASA biogeochemical model. Burned area from 2001–2004 was derived using newly available active fire and 500 m. burned area datasets from MODIS following the approach described by Giglio et al. (2006. ATSR and VIRS satellite data were used to extend the burned area time series back in time through 1997. In our analysis we estimated fuel loads, including organic soil layer and peatland fuels, and the net flux from terrestrial ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP, heterotrophic respiration (Rh, and biomass burning, using time varying inputs of precipitation (PPT, temperature, solar radiation, and satellite-derived fractional absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR. For the 1997–2004 period, we found that on average approximately 58 Pg C year−1 was fixed by plants as NPP, and approximately 95% of this was returned back to the atmosphere via Rh. Another 4%, or 2.5 Pg C year−1 was emitted by biomass burning; the remainder consisted of losses from fuel wood collection and subsequent burning. At a global scale, burned area and total fire emissions were largely decoupled from year to year. Total carbon emissions tracked burning in forested areas (including deforestation fires in the tropics, whereas burned area was largely controlled by savanna fires that responded to different environmental and human factors. Biomass burning emissions showed large interannual variability with a range of more than 1 Pg C year−1, with a maximum in 1998 (3.2 Pg C year−1 and a minimum in 2000 (2.0 Pg C year−1.

  7. Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some cases, these values are very similar but differ substantially in other models. The similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. But the models also differ broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-to-model variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms

  8. Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2015-09-01

    Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or

  9. Millennium Global Village-Net: bringing together Millennium Villages throughout sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, Andrew S; Negin, Joel; Olayo, Bernard; Bukachi, Frederick; Johnson, Edward; Sachs, Sonia Ehrlich

    2009-12-01

    The Millennium Villages Project (MVP), based at The Earth Institute at Columbia University, is a bottom-up, community led approach to show how villages in developing countries can get out of the poverty trap that afflicts more than a billion people worldwide. With well-targeted, practical inputs can help the community invest in a path leading to self-sustaining development. There are 80 Millennium Villages clustered in 10 countries throughout sub-Saharan Africa. MVP is an important development process for empowering communities to invest in a package of integrated interventions aiming to increase food production, improve access to safe water, health care, education and infrastructure. The process benefits from synergies of the integrated approach and relies on community leadership as empowered by proven technological inputs. MVP is committed to a science-based approach to assess and monitor the progress of the communities towards clear objectives; the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and to do so with mechanisms that are scalable and sustainable. This approach offers much more than simply collecting and analyzing data since the mechanism used for recording progress would provide a bridge over the divide which separates the haves and the have-nots (by facilitating the sharing of solutions from one community to another bidirectionally). By so doing, it allows people to enhance their own futures in a sustainable manner. Solutions found in one community are transferable to similar communities in other MVP villages. To achieve this goal, the MVP requires an information and communication system which can provide both necessary infrastructure for monitoring and evaluation, and tools for communicating among the villages, cities and countries. This system is called the Millennium Global Village-Net (MGV-Net). It takes advantage of the latest in open source software (OpenMRS), databases (MySQL), interface terminology, a centralized concept dictionary, and uses appropriate

  10. Global volcanic emissions: budgets, plume chemistry and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, T. A.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past few decades our understanding of global volcanic degassing budgets, plume chemistry and the impacts of volcanic emissions on our atmosphere and environment has been revolutionized. Global volcanic emissions budgets are needed if we are to make effective use of regional and global atmospheric models in order to understand the consequences of volcanic degassing on global environmental evolution. Traditionally volcanic SO2 budgets have been the best constrained but recent efforts have seen improvements in the quantification of the budgets of other environmentally important chemical species such as CO2, the halogens (including Br and I) and trace metals (including measurements relevant to trace metal atmospheric lifetimes and bioavailability). Recent measurements of reactive trace gas species in volcanic plumes have offered intriguing hints at the chemistry occurring in the hot environment at volcanic vents and during electrical discharges in ash-rich volcanic plumes. These reactive trace species have important consequences for gas plume chemistry and impacts, for example, in terms of the global fixed nitrogen budget, volcanically induced ozone destruction and particle fluxes to the atmosphere. Volcanically initiated atmospheric chemistry was likely to have been particularly important before biological (and latterly anthropogenic) processes started to dominate many geochemical cycles, with important consequences in terms of the evolution of the nitrogen cycle and the role of particles in modulating the Earth's climate. There are still many challenges and open questions to be addressed in this fascinating area of science.

  11. Global contrail coverage simulated by CAM5 with the inventory of 2006 global aircraft emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl Craig

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the incorporation of an inventory of the AEDT (Aviation Environmental Design Tool global commercial aircraft emissions for the year of 2006 into the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM version 1. The original dataset reports aircraft emission mass of ten specieson an hourly basis which is converted to monthly emission mixing ratio tendencies as the released version of the dataset. We also describe how the released aircraft emission dataset is incorporated into CESM.A contrail parameterization is implemented in the CESM in which it isassumed that persistent contrails initially form when aircraft water vapor emissions experience a favorable atmospheric environment. Both aircraft emissions and ambient humidity are attributed to the formation of contrails. The ice water content of contrails is assumed to follow an empirical function of atmospheric temperature which determines the cloud fraction associated with contrails.Our modeling study indicates that the simulated global contrail coverage is sensitive to the vertical resolution of the GCMsin the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere because of modelassumptions about the vertical overlap structure of clouds.Futhermore, the extent of global contrail coverage simulated by CESM exhibits a seasonal cycle which is in broad agreement with observations.

  12. Biogenic carbon fluxes from global agricultural production and consumption: Gridded, annual estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, J.; West, T. O.; le Page, Y.; Thomson, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Quantification of biogenic carbon fluxes from agricultural lands is needed to generate globally consistent bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring and model input. We quantify agricultural carbon fluxes associated with annual (starting in 1961) crop net primary productivity (NPP), harvested biomass, and human and livestock consumption and emissions, with estimates of uncertainty, by applying region- and species-specific carbon parameters to annual crop, livestock, food and trade inventory data, and generate downscaled, gridded (0.05 degree resolution) representations of these fluxes. In 2011, global crop NPP was 5.25 ± 0.46 Pg carbon (excluding root exudates), of which 2.05 ± 0.051 Pg carbon was harvested as primary crops; an additional 0.54 Pg of crop residue carbon was collected for livestock fodder. In 2011, total livestock feed intake was 2.42 ± 0.21 Pg carbon, of which 2.31 ± 0.21 Pg carbon was emitted as carbon dioxide and 0.072 ± 0.005 Pg carbon was emitted as methane. We estimate that livestock grazed 1.18 Pg carbon from non-crop lands in 2011, representing 48.5 % of global total feed intake. In 2009, the latest available data year, we estimate global human food intake (excluding seafood and orchard fruits and nuts) at 0.52 ± 0.03 Pg carbon, with an additional 0.24 ± 0.01 Pg carbon of food supply chain losses. Trends in production and consumption of agricultural carbon between 1961 and recent years, such as increasing dominance of oilcrops and decreasing percent contribution of pasturage to total livestock feed intake, are discussed, and accounting of all agricultural carbon was done for the years 2005 and 2009. Gridded at 0.05 degree resolution, these quantities represent local uptake and release of agricultural biogenic carbon (e.g. biomass production and removal, residue and manure inputs to soils) and may be used with other gridded data to help estimate current and future changes in soil organic carbon.

  13. Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frölicher, Thomas; Winton, Michael; Sarmiento, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2 emissions are stopped. Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease. For example, global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.6°C after a carbon emissions stoppage at 2-degree. This increase occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptake—a circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature. The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2 on multi-century timescales. Our study also reveals that equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates based on a widely used method of regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against surface temperature change are biased. Uncertainty in the magnitude of the feedback effects associated with the magnitude and geographic distribution of ocean heat uptake therefore contributes substantially to the uncertainty in allowable carbon emissions for a given multi-century warming target.

  14. A self-consistent global emissions inventory spanning 1850 ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    While emissions inventory development has advanced significantly in recent years, the scientific community still lacks a global inventory utilizing consistent estimation approaches spanning multiple centuries. In this analysis, we investigate the strengths and weaknesses of current approaches to effectively address inventory development over not just a global spatial scale but also a timescale spanning two centuries – from early industrialization into the near future. We discuss the need within the scientific community for a dataset such as this and the landscape of questions it would allow the scientific community to address. In particular, we focus on questions that the scientific community cannot adequately address using the currently available techniques and information.We primarily focus on the difficulties and potential obstacles associated with developing an inventory of this scope and magnitude. We discuss many of the hurdles that the field has already overcome and also highlight the challenges that researchers in the field still face. We detail the complexities related to the extent of spatial and temporal scales required for an undertaking of this magnitude. In addition, we point to areas where the community currently lacks the necessary data to move forward. Our analysis focuses on one direction in which the development of global emissions inventories is heading rather than an in-depth analysis of the path of emissions inventory development

  15. Carbon emission reductions by substitution of improved cookstoves and cattle mosquito nets in a forest-dependent community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somanta Chan

    2015-07-01

    Substitution of conventional cookstoves with improved cookstoves and the use of mosquito nets instead of fuelwood burning could result in using less fuelwood for the same amount of energy needed and thereby result in reduction of carbon emissions and deforestation. To realize this substitution, approximately US$ 15–25 MgCO2−1 is needed depending on discount rates and amounts of emission reduction. Substitution of cookstoves will have direct impacts on the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities and on forest protection. Financial incentives under voluntary and mandatory schemes are needed to materialize this substitution.

  16. Global distribution of N2O emissions from aquatic systems : natural emissions and anthropogenic effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seitzinger, S.P.; Styles, R.V.; Kroeze, C.

    2000-01-01

    Context Abstract: Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas, are increasing due to human activities. Our analysis suggests that a third of global anthropogenic N2O emission is from aquatic sources (rivers, estuaries, continental shelves) and the terrestrial sources comprise the

  17. Variation of radiative forcings and global warming potentials from regional aviation NOx emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skowron, Agnieszka; Lee, David S.; De León, Ruben R.

    2015-03-01

    The response to hemispherical and regional aircraft NOx emissions is explored by using two climate metrics: radiative forcing (RF) and Global Warming Potential (GWP). The global chemistry transport model, MOZART-3 CTM, is applied in this study for a series of incremental aircraft NOx emission integrations to different regions. It was found that the sensitivity of chemical responses per unit emission rate from regional aircraft NOx emissions varies with size of aircraft NOx emission rate and that climate metric values decrease with increasing aircraft NOx emission rates, except for Southeast Asia. Previous work has recognized that aircraft NOx GWPs may vary regionally. However, the way in which these regional GWPs are calculated are critical. Previous studies have added a fixed amount of NOx to different regions. This approach can heavily bias the results of a regional GWP because of the well-established sensitivity of O3 production to background NOx whereby the Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is greater at small background NOx. Thus, even a small addition of NOx in a clean-air area can produce a large O3 response. Using this 'fixed addition' method of 0.035 Tg(N) yr-1, results in the greatest effect observed for North Atlantic and Brazil, ∼10.0 mW m-2/Tg(N) yr-1. An alternative 'proportional approach' is also taken that preserves the subtle balance of local NOx-O3-CH4 systems with the existing emission patterns of aircraft and background NOx, whereby a proportional amount of aircraft NOx, 5% (N) yr-1, is added to each region in order to determine the response. This results in the greatest effect observed for North Pacific that with its net NOx RF of 23.7 mW m-2/Tg(N) yr-1 is in contrast with the 'fixed addition' method. For determining regional NOx GWPs, it is argued that the 'proportional' approach gives more representative results. However, a constraint of both approaches is that the regional GWP determined is dependent on the relative global emission pattern

  18. Estimating global nitrous oxide emissions by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based productivity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porada, Philipp; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel; Beer, Christian; Weber, Bettina

    2017-04-01

    Lichens and bryophytes have been shown to release significant amounts of nitrous oxide (N2O), which is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone - depleting agent. Relative contributions of lichens and bryophytes to nitrous oxide emissions are largest in dryland and tundra regions, with potential implications for the nitrogen balance of these ecosystems. So far, this estimate is based on large-scale values of net primary productivity of lichens and bryophytes, which are derived from empirical upscaling of field measurements. Productivity is then converted to nitrous oxide emissions by empirical relationships between productivity and respiration, as well as respiration and nitrous oxide release. Alternatively, we quantify nitrous oxide emissions using a global process-based non-vascular vegetation model of lichens and bryophytes. The model simulates photosynthesis and respiration of lichens and bryophytes directly as a function of climatic conditions, such as light and temperature. Nitrous oxide emissions are then derived from simulated respiration, assuming a fixed relationship between the two fluxes, which is based on laboratory experiments under varying environmental conditions. Our approach yields a global estimate of 0.27 (0.19 - 0.35) Tg N2O yr-1 released by lichens and bryophytes. This is at the lower end of the range of a previous, empirical estimate, but corresponds to about 50 % of the atmospheric deposition of nitrous oxide into the oceans or 25 % of the atmospheric deposition on land. We conclude that, while productivity of lichens and bryophytes at large scale is relatively well constrained, improved estimates of their respiration may help to reduce uncertainty of predicted N2O emissions. This is particularly important for quantifying the spatial distribution of N2O emissions by lichens and bryophytes, since simulated respiration shows a different global pattern than productivity. We find that both physiological variation among species as well as

  19. Predicting global oceanic net primary productivity with reduced-dimension, linear dynamical spatiotemporal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, F.; Barton, A.; Stock, C. A.

    2016-02-01

    Oceanic net primary production (NPP) accounts for roughly half of biological carbon fixation at the global scale, determining upper bounds for fisheries and export production. Assessing our ability to predict changes in NPP has thus major implications for the analysis of climate change impacts and for the management of living marine resources. Here, we fitted a series of reduced-dimension, linear dynamical spatiotemporal models to estimates of NPP derived from 18 years of remote sensing data and from simulations of a fully coupled, ocean-atmosphere Earth System Model (ESM). The method projects the evolution of NPP anomalies at the global scale from the time decay and interactions among a reduced set of major NPP modes of variability. This approach allowed us to assess potential limits to the predictability of NPP at the seasonal scale, and to assess the agreement in regional patterns of predictability based on remote sensing and ESM NPP estimates at large scales. The models are able to anticipate changes in NPP at lead times up to 24 months, especially in subtropical latitudes. Predictability was dominated by the decay of major modes at short time scales, with a prevalence of slow moving modes related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. This decay dominated short-term predictions in both remote sensing and ESM NPP, although the modes prevailed for a longer time in ESM simulations. The dominance of short time persistence declined gradually at longer lead times as interactions between modes became more important for predicting NPP changes. These interactions were related to the propagation of major climate modes. Our approach provides a novel set of diagnostics to assess the performance of ESMs, and allowed us to identify potential regions where the prediction of NPP might lead to an improved management of living marine resources.

  20. Prediction of the Export and Fate of Global Ocean Net Primary Production: The EXPORTS Science Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A Siegel

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Ocean ecosystems play a critical role in the Earth’s carbon cycle and the quantification of their impacts for both present conditions and for predictions into the future remains one of the greatest challenges in oceanography. The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from Remote Sensing (EXPORTS Science Plan is to develop a predictive understanding of the export and fate of global ocean net primary production (NPP and its implications for present and future climates. The achievement of this goal requires a quantification of the mechanisms that control the export of carbon from the euphotic zone as well as its fate in the underlying twilight zone where some fraction of exported carbon will be sequestered in the ocean’s interior on time scales of months to millennia. Here we present a measurement / synthesis / modeling framework aimed at quantifying the fates of upper ocean NPP and its impacts on the global carbon cycle based upon the EXPORTS Science Plan. The proposed approach will diagnose relationships among the ecological, biogeochemical and physical oceanographic processes that control carbon cycling across a range of ecosystem and carbon cycling states leading to advances in satellite diagnostic and numerical prognostic models. To collect these data, a combination of ship and robotic field sampling, satellite remote sensing and numerical modeling is proposed which enables the sampling of the many pathways of NPP export and fates. This coordinated, process-oriented approach has the potential to foster new insights on ocean carbon cycling that maximizes its societal relevance through the achievement of research goals of many international research agencies and will be a key step towards our understanding of the Earth as an integrated system.

  1. A theoretical framework for the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux and its implications in the definition of "emissions from land-use change"

    OpenAIRE

    T. Gasser; Ciais, P

    2013-01-01

    We develop a theoretical framework and analysis of the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux in order to discuss possible definitions of "emissions from land-use change". The terrestrial biosphere is affected by two perturbations: the perturbation of the global carbon-climate-nitrogen system (CCN) with elevated atmospheric CO2, climate change and nitrogen deposition; and the land-use change perturbation (LUC). Here, we progressively establish mathematical definitions of four gener...

  2. A theoretical framework for the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux and its implications in the definition of "emissions from land-use change"

    OpenAIRE

    T. Gasser; Ciais, P

    2013-01-01

    We develop a theoretical framework and analysis of the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux in order to discuss possible definitions of "emissions from land-use change". The terrestrial biosphere is affected by two perturbations: the perturbation of the global Carbon-Climate-Nitrogen system (CCN) with elevated atmospheric CO2, climate change and nitrogen deposition; and the Land-Use Change perturbation (LUC). Here, we progressively establish mathematical definitions of four generic components of t...

  3. Incorporation of a Cuban radiological station to the global net of isotopes in precipitations; Incorporacion de una estacion radiologica cubana a la red global de isotopos en precipitaciones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dominguez L, O.; Ramos V, E.O.; Prendes A, M.; Alonso A, D.; Caveda R, C.A. [CPHR, Calle 20 No. 4113 e/41 y 47, Playa, C.P. 11300, A.P. 6195, C.P. 10600 La Habana (Cuba)]. e-mail: orlando@cphr.edu.cu

    2006-07-01

    From March, 2002 the West station of the National Net of Environmental Radiological Surveillance located in the Center of Protection and Hygiene of the Radiations, belongs to the Global Net of Isotopes in Precipitations. The obtained isotopic information of the analysis of the samples of monthly monitored precipitations (oxygen-18, deuterium and tritium) its are stored in a database, which is available through Internet. For the acceptance in the Global Net, it was necessary the incorporation to the monitoring of the station the meteorological surface variables. Also it was developed a software for the calculation of the tension of the water steam starting from the values of humidity and temperature. The obtained results in 2002 and published recently, its are inside the range of values reported for these isotopes in the Caribbean area. (Author)

  4. COMPILATION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BENKOVITZ,C.M.

    2002-11-01

    The mathematical modeling of the transport and transformation of trace species in the atmosphere is one of the scientific tools currently used to assess atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climatic conditions. From the scientific but also from the management perspectives accurate inventories of emissions of the trace species at the appropriate spatial, temporal, and species resolution are required. There are two general methodologies used to estimate regional to global emissions: bottom-up and top-down (also known as inverse modeling). Bottom-up methodologies to estimate industrial emissions are based on activity data, emission factors (amount of emissions per unit activity), and for some inventories additional parameters (such as sulfur content of fuels). Generally these emissions estimates must be given finer sectoral, spatial (usually gridded), temporal, and for some inventories species resolution. Temporal and spatial resolution are obtained via the use of surrogate information, such as population, land use, traffic counts, etc. which already exists in or can directly be converted to gridded form. Speciation factors have been and are being developed to speciate inventories of NO{sub x}, particulate matter, and hydrocarbons. Top-down (inverse modeling) methodologies directly invert air quality measurements in terms of poorly known but critical parameters to constrain the emissions needed to explain these measurements; values of these parameters are usually computed using atmospheric transport models. Currently there are several strong limitations of inverse modeling, but the continued evolution of top-down estimates will be facilitated by the development of denser monitoring networks and by the massive amounts of data from satellite observations.

  5. Global and Regional Climate Responses Solar Radiation Management: Results from a climateprediction.net Geoengineering Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, Katharine; Allen, Myles; Ingram, William; Keith, David; Granger Morgan, M.

    2010-05-01

    To date modeling studies suggest that, while significant hydrological anomalies could result from the artificial addition of reflecting aerosols in the stratosphere for the purpose of solar radiation management (SRM), even at the regional level such a geoengineered world would bear a much closer resemblance to a low CO2 world, than to an unmodified high CO2 world. These previous modeling studies have generally compared one or two SRM forcing scenarios to various business-as-usual controls. However, such approaches cannot provide much information about regional sensitivities to the levels of SRM that might realistically result. Should engaging in SRM every be seriously contemplated, such regional analysis of a range of realistic scenarios will be an essential input to any process of geopolitical decision-making. Here we present the results from a large-ensemble experiment that used the HadCM3L GCM, implemented through climateprediction.net. The analysis examines 135 globally-uniform stratospheric optical depth modification scenarios designed to stabilize global temperatures under SRES A1B. Scenarios were tested using ten-member subensembles which made small perturbations to initial conditions. All simulations use identical standard settings of model physics parameters and are initiated from historically-forced runs from 1920-2005. A total of 7,331 simulations of the years 2000-2080 were performed for this experiment using computing resources donated by the general public. Our analysis of regional temperature and precipitation anomalies, normalized to account for variability, shows that SRM compensations for anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing do generally return regional climates closer to their baseline climate states than the no-geoengineering, business-as-usual scenarios. However, we find that the magnitudes and sensitivities of regional responses to this type of activity, as modeled in HadCM3L, are highly variable. As the amount of SRM increases to compensate

  6. Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Rogers, B. M.; Morton, D. C.

    2012-01-01

    In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity

  7. Global burned area and biomass burning emissions from small fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; van der Werf, G. R.; Rogers, B. M.; Morton, D. C.

    2012-12-01

    In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity

  8. Global Scale Methane Emissions from On-Site Wastewater Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, M. C.; Guan, K.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Pit latrines and other on-site sanitation methods are important forms of wastewater management at the global scale, providing hygienic and low-cost sanitation for more than 1.7 billion people in developing and middle-income regions. Latrines have also been identified as major sources of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) from the anaerobic decomposition of organic waste in pits. Understanding the greenhouse gas footprint of different wastewater systems is essential for sustainable water resource development and management. Despite this importance, CH4 emissions from decentralized wastewater treatment have received little attention in the scientific literature, and the rough calculations underlying government inventories and integrated assessment models do not accurately capture variations in emissions within and between countries. In this study, we improve upon earlier efforts and develop the first spatially explicit approach to quantifying latrine CH4 emissions, combining a high-resolution geospatial analysis of population, urbanization, and water table (as an indicator of anaerobic decomposition pathways) with CH4 emissions factors from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Country-level health and sanitation surveys were used to determine latrine utilization in 2000 and predict usage in 2015. 18 representative countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America were selected for this analysis to illustrate regional variations in CH4 emissions and to include the greatest emitting nations. Our analysis confirms that pit latrines are a globally significant anthropogenic CH4 source, emitting 4.7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the countries considered here. This total is projected to decrease ~25% by 2015, however, driven largely by rapid urbanization in China and decreased reliance on latrines in favor of flush toilets. India has the greatest potential for large growth in emissions in the post-2015 period, since public health campaigns to end open defecation

  9. The Effects of Rape Residue Mulching on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from No-Tillage Paddy Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-Sheng; Cao, Cou-Gui; Guo, Li-Jin; Li, Cheng-Fang

    2014-01-01

    A field experiment was conducted to provide a complete greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for global warming potential (GWP), net GWP, and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) from no-tillage (NT) paddy fields with different amounts of oilseed rape residue mulch (0, 3000, 4000, and 6000 kg dry matter (DM) ha−1) during a rice-growing season after 3 years of oilseed rape-rice cultivation. Residue mulching treatments showed significantly more organic carbon (C) density for the 0–20 cm soil layer at harvesting than no residue treatment. During a rice-growing season, residue mulching treatments sequestered significantly more organic C from 687 kg C ha−1 season−1 to 1654 kg C ha−1 season−1 than no residue treatment. Residue mulching significantly increased emissions of CO2 and N2O but decreased CH4 emissions. Residue mulching treatments significantly increased GWP by 9–30% but significantly decreased net GWP by 33–71% and GHGI by 35–72% relative to no residue treatment. These results suggest that agricultural economic viability and GHG mitigation can be achieved simultaneously by residue mulching on NT paddy fields in central China. PMID:25140329

  10. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Georg; Obersteiner, Michael; Sohngen, Brent; Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Kenneth; Rametsteiner, Ewald; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Wunder, Sven; Beach, Robert

    2008-07-29

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 10(5) g) CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion.yr(-1) for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion.yr(-1). Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

  11. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Georg; Obersteiner, Michael; Sohngen, Brent; Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Kenneth; Rametsteiner, Ewald; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Wunder, Sven; Beach, Robert

    2008-01-01

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3–0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 × 105 g) CO2·yr−1 in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion·yr−1 for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5–2.7 Gt CO2·yr−1 in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion·yr−1. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described. PMID:18650377

  12. Global bounds on nitrogen gas emissions from humid tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookshire, E. N. J.; Gerber, S.; Greene, W.; Jones, R. T.; Thomas, S. A.

    2017-03-01

    Denitrification and hydrologic leaching are the two major pathways by which nitrogen (N) is lost from the terrestrial biosphere. Humid tropical forests are thought to dominate denitrification losses from unmanaged lands globally, but there is large uncertainty about the range and key drivers of total N gas emissions across the biome. We combined pantropical measures of small watershed stream chemistry with ecosystem modeling to determine total N gas losses and associated uncertainty across humid tropical forests. Our calculations reveal that denitrification in soils and along hydrologic flow paths contributes on average >45% of total watershed N losses. However, when denitrification occurs exclusively in shallow soils, simulations indicate that gas emissions would exceed N inputs and render plants severely N limited, which contradicts observations of widespread N sufficiency in tropical forests. Our analyses suggest an upper bound on soil denitrification of 80% of total external N losses beyond which tropical plant growth would be compromised.

  13. Effects of UVB radiation on net community production in the upper global ocean

    KAUST Repository

    Garcia-Corral, Lara S.

    2016-08-31

    Aim Erosion of the stratospheric ozone layer together with oligotrophication of the subtropical ocean is leading to enhanced exposure to ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation in ocean surface waters. The impact of increased exposure to UVB on planktonic primary producers and heterotrophs is uncertain. Here we test the null hypothesis that net community production (NCP) of plankton communities in surface waters of the tropical and subtropical ocean is not affected by ambient UVB radiation and extend this test to the global ocean, including the polar oceans and the Mediterranean Sea using previous results. Location We conducted experiments with 131 surface communities sampled during a circumnavigation cruise along the tropical and subtropical ocean and combined these results with 89 previous reports encompassing the Atlantic, Pacific, Arctic and Southern Oceans and the Mediterranean Sea. Methods The use of quartz (transparent to UVB radiation) and borosilicate glass materials (opaque to most UVB) for incubations allowed us to compare NCP between communities where UVB is excluded and those receiving natural UVB radiation. Results We found that NCP varies when exposed to natural UVB radiation compared to those where UVB was removed. NCP of autotrophic communities tended to decrease under natural UVB radiation, whereas the NCP of heterotrophic communities tended to increase. However, these variations showed the opposite trend under higher levels of UVB radiation. Main conclusions Our results suggest that earlier estimates of NCP for surface communities, which were hitherto derived using materials blocking UVB radiation were biased, with the direction and magnitude of this bias depending on the metabolic status of the communities and the underwater penetration of UVB radiation.

  14. Enabling a GeoWeb with Net-Centric Fusion on a Discrete Global Grid (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, P. R.

    2010-12-01

    There is a pressing expectation for general real-time access to multi-source geo-spatial content in support of evidence-based decision-making. Earth location promises to be a decentralized organizational structure for such net-centric decision support systems - the GeoWeb, Digital Earth, GEOINT2, and Planetary Skin are some terms in use. However, these platforms assume a critical provision for access and integration of multi-sources of geo-data on-demand and unassisted by the unanticipated unsophisticated end-use decision-maker. How can this occur when geo-data integration is a complex time-consuming problem? We present a solution. A discrete global grid system (DGGS) incorporates an Earth partitioning that acts as a unifying structure for encoding and integrating/fusing multi-source location-based information necessary for this class of location-based platforms. As a global reference model the DGGS is uniform over the entire planet at any resolution - from continents to bird baths. The DGGS provides fast, seamless assimilation of new, numerous, and disparate geo-data sources regardless of scale, origin, resolution, legacy formats, datum, or projection - allowing any content to reside at its own level of granularity at any location on the globe. The DGGS renders data fused, ubiquitous, searchable, and ready for analysis. Testbed development of a DGGS using the optimized Icosahedral Snyder Equal Area aperture 3 Hexagonal grid (ISEA3H) demonstrated solutions to challenging aspects of multi-source data exploitation and decision support within military geospatial-intelligence. The ISEA3H tessellation is optimized to use the fine increments and the close packed equal area partitioning properties of a square root three (hexagonal) subdivision. The investigations advanced the ISEA3H grid development to include cell indexing, quantization strategy and numeric functions required for a formal digital Earth reference model (DERM). Notably, the global index that was selected

  15. Net energy production and emissions mitigation of domestic wastewater treatment system: a comparison of different biogas-sludge use alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin

    2013-09-01

    Wastewater treatment systems are increasingly designed for the recovery of valuable chemicals and energy in addition to waste stream disposal. Herein, the life-cycle energy production and emissions mitigation of a typical domestic wastewater treatment system were assessed, in which different combinations of biogas use and sludge processing lines for industrial or household applications were considered. The results suggested that the reuse of biogas and sludge was so important in the system's overall energy balance and environmental performance that it may offset the cost in the plant's installation and operation. Combined heat and power and household utilization were two prior options for net energy production, provided an ideal power conversion efficiency and biogas production. The joint application of household biogas use and sludge nutrient processing achieved both high net energy production and significant environmental remediation across all impact categories, representing the optimal tradeoff for domestic wastewater treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Effects of tillage practices and straw returning methods on greenhouse gas emissions and net ecosystem economic budget in rice-wheat cropping systems in central China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Z. S.; Guo, L. J.; Liu, T. Q.; Li, C. F.; Cao, C. G.

    2015-12-01

    Significant efforts have been devoted to assess the effects of conservation tillage (no-tillage [NT] and straw returning) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, global warming potential (GWP), greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI), and net economic budget in crop growing seasons. However, only a few studies have evaluated the effects conservation tillage on the net ecosystem economic budget (NEEB) in a rice-wheat cropping system. Therefore, a split-plot field experiment was performed to comprehensively evaluate the effects of tillage practices (i.e., conventional intensive tillage [CT] and NT) and straw returning methods (i.e., straw returning or removal of preceding crop) on the soil total organic carbon (TOC), GHG emissions, GWP, GHGI, and NEEB of sandy loam soil in a rice-wheat cropping system in central China. Conservation tillage did not affect rice and wheat grain yields. Compared with CT and straw removal, NT and straw returning significantly increased the TOC of 0-5 cm soil layer by 2.9% and 7.8%, respectively. However, the TOC of 0-20 cm soil layer was not affected by tillage practices and straw returning methods. NT did not also affect the N2O emissions during the rice and wheat seasons; NT significantly decreased the annual CH4 emissions by 7.5% and the annual GWP by 7.8% compared with CT. Consequently, GHGI under NT was reduced by 8.1%. Similar to NT, straw returning did not affect N2O emissions during the rice and wheat seasons. Compared with straw removal, straw returning significantly increased annual CH4 emissions by 35.0%, annual GWP by 32.0%, and annual GHGI by 31.1%. Straw returning did not also affect NEEB; by contrast, NT significantly increased NEEB by 15.6%. NT without straw returning resulted in the lowest GWP, the lowest GHGI, and the highest NEEB among all treatments. This finding suggested that NT without straw returning may be applied as a sustainable technology to increase economic and environmental benefits. Nevertheless, environmentally straw

  17. The effect of changing cow production and fitness traits on net income and greenhouse gas emissions from Australian dairy systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, M J; Eckard, R J; Haile-Mariam, M; Pryce, J E

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the effect of changing a range of biological traits on farm net income and greenhouse gas emissions (expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents, CO2-eq.) in the Australian dairy cow population. An average cow was modeled, using breed-average information for Holsteins and Jerseys from the Australian Dairy Herd Improvement Scheme. A Markov chain approach was used to describe the steady-state herd structure, as well as estimate the CO2-eq. emissions per cow and per kilogram of milk solids. The effects of a single unit change in herd milk volume, fat and protein yields, live weight, survival, dry matter intake, somatic cell count, and calving interval were assessed. With the traits studied, the only single-unit change that would bring about a desirable increase in both net income and reduced emissions intensity per cow and per kilogram of milk solids in Australian dairy herds would be an increase in survival and reductions in milk volume, live weight, DMI, SCC, and calving interval. The models developed can be used to assess lifetime dairy system abatement options by breeding, feeding, and management. Selective breeding and appropriate management can both improve health, fertility, and feed utilization of Australian dairy systems and reduce its environmental impact. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in a double-cropping cereal rotation as affected by nitrogen and straw management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, T.; Gao, B.; Christie, P.; Ju, X.

    2013-12-01

    The effects of nitrogen and straw management on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) in a winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping system on the North China Plain were investigated. We measured nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and studied net GWP (NGWP) and GHGI by calculating the net exchange of CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq) from greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural inputs and management practices, as well as changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), based on a long-term field experiment established in 2006. The field experiment includes six treatments with three fertilizer N levels (zero N (control), optimum and conventional N) and straw removal (i.e. N0, Nopt and Ncon) or return (i.e. SN0, SNopt and SNcon). Optimum N management (Nopt, SNopt) saved roughly half of the fertilizer N compared to conventional agricultural practice (Ncon, SNcon), with no significant effect on grain yields. Annual mean N2O emissions reached 3.90 kg N2O-N ha-1 in Ncon and SNcon, and N2O emissions were reduced by 46.9% by optimizing N management of Nopt and SNopt. Straw return increased annual mean N2O emissions by 27.9%. Annual SOC sequestration was 0.40-1.44 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 in plots with N application and/or straw return. Compared to the conventional N treatments the optimum N treatments reduced NGWP by 51%, comprising 25% from decreasing N2O emissions and 75% from reducing N fertilizer application rates. Straw return treatments reduced NGWP by 30% compared to no straw return because the GWP from increments of SOC offset the GWP from higher emissions of N2O, N fertilizer and fuel after straw return. The GHGI trends from the different nitrogen and straw management practices were similar to the NGWP. In conclusion, optimum N and straw return significantly reduced NGWP and GHGI and concomitantly achieved relatively high grain yields in this important winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping system.

  19. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in a double cropping cereal rotation as affected by nitrogen and straw management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, T.; Gao, B.; Christie, P.; Ju, X.

    2013-08-01

    The effects of nitrogen and straw management on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) in a winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping system on the North China Plain were investigated. We measured nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and studied net GWP (NGWP) and GHGI by calculating the net exchange of CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq) from greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural inputs and management practices, and changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), based on a long-term field experiment established in 2006. The field experiment includes six treatments with three fertilizer N levels (zero-N control, optimum and conventional N) and straw removal (i.e. N0, Nopt and Ncon) or return (i.e. N0, Nopt and SNcon). Optimum N management (Nopt, SNopt) saved roughly half of the fertilizer N compared to conventional agricultural practice (Ncon, SNcon) with no significant effect on grain yields. Annual mean N2O emissions reached 3.90 kg N2O-N ha-1 in Ncon and SNcon, and N2O emissions were reduced by 46.9% by optimizing N management of Nopt and SNopt. Straw return increased annual mean N2O emissions by 27.9%. Annual SOC sequestration was 0.40-1.44 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 in plots with N application and/or straw return. Compared to the conventional N treatments the optimum N treatments reduced NGWP by 51%, comprising 25% from decreasing N2O emissions and 75% from reducing N fertilizer application rates. Straw return treatments reduced NGWP by 30% compared to no straw return because the GWP from increments of SOC offset the GWP from higher emissions of N2O, N fertilizer and fuel after straw return. The GHGI trends from the different nitrogen and straw management practices were similar to the NGWP. In conclusion, optimum N and straw return significantly reduced NGWP and GHGI and concomitantly achieved relatively high grain yields in this important winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping system.

  20. MODIS/Terra Net Primary Production Yearly L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MOD17A3H Version 6 product provides information about annual (yearly) Net Primary Production at 500 meter pixel resolution. Annual NPP is derived from the sum of...

  1. MODIS/Aqua Net Primary Production Yearly L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MYD17A3H Version 6 product provides information about annual (yearly) Net Primary Production at 500 meter pixel resolution. Annual NPP is derived from the sum of...

  2. Drought dominates the interannual variability in global terrestrial net primary production by controlling semi-arid ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ling; He, Bin; Chen, Aifang; Wang, Haiyan; Liu, Junjie; Lű, Aifeng; Chen, Ziyue

    2016-04-19

    Drought is a main driver of interannual variation in global terrestrial net primary production. However, how and to what extent drought impacts global NPP variability is unclear. Based on the multi-timescale drought index SPEI and a satellite-based annual global terrestrial NPP dataset, we observed a robust relationship between drought and NPP in both hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, the annual NPP trend is driven by 19-month drought variation, whereas that in the Southern Hemisphere is driven by 16-month drought variation. Drought-dominated NPP, which mainly occurs in semi-arid ecosystems, explains 29% of the interannual variation in global NPP, despite its 16% contribution to total global NPP. More surprisingly, drought prone ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere, which only account for 7% of the total global NPP, contribute to 33% of the interannual variation in global NPP. Our observations support the leading role of semi-arid ecosystems in interannual variability in global NPP and highlight the great impacts of long-term drought on the global carbon cycle.

  3. Effects of future anthropogenic pollution emissions on global air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzer, A.; Zimmermann, P.; Doering, U.; van Aardenne, J.; Dentener, F.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-04-01

    The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC is used to estimate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes on global and regional air quality in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050). The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). By comparing with recent observations, it is shown that the model reproduces the main features of regional air pollution distributions though with some imprecision inherent to the coarse horizontal resolution (around 100 km). To identify possible future hot spots of poor air quality, a multi pollutant index (MPI) has been applied. It appears that East and South Asia and the Arabian Gulf regions represent such hotspots due to very high pollutant concentrations. In East Asia a range of pollutant gases and particulate matter (PM2.5) are projected to reach very high levels from 2005 onward, while in South Asia air pollution, including ozone, will grow rapidly towards the middle of the century. Around the Arabian Gulf, where natural PM2.5 concentrations are already high (desert dust), ozone levels will increase strongly. By extending the MPI definition, we calculated a Per Capita MPI (PCMPI) in which we combined population projections with those of pollution emissions. It thus appears that a rapidly increasing number of people worldwide will experience reduced air quality during the first half of the 21st century. It is projected that air quality for the global average citizen in 2050 will be comparable to the average in East Asia in the year 2005.

  4. The Radiometric Calibration Network (RadCalNet): a Global Calibration and Validation Test Site Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czapla-Myers, J.; Bouvet, M.; Wenny, B. N.

    2016-12-01

    The Radiometric Calibration Network (RadCalNet) Working Group (WG) consists of national and academic groups from various countries who are involved in the radiometric calibration and validation of Earth-observing sensors. The current WG is composed of members from France, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK, the USA, and China. RadCalNet has been on the agenda of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Calibration and Validation (WGCV) for years, and in 2014 it was formally assembled. The primary goal is to develop an SI-traceable standardized network of sites and processing protocols for the absolute radiometric calibration, Intercalibration, and validation of Earth-observing sensors. Currently, RadCalNet is composed of four instrumented test sites that are located in the USA, France, Namibia, and China. A two-year prototyping phase was used to define the architecture of RadCalNet, demonstrate the operational concept using current satellite sensors, and to provide recommendations to CEOS WGCV for the transition of RadCalNet to an operational status. The final product is planned to be a daily hyperspectral (400-2500 nm) top-of-atmosphere reflectance in 30-minute intervals for a nadir-viewing sensor at each of the four test sites. The current schedule has RadCalNet becoming operational in late 2016 or early 2017.

  5. Impact of the Keystone XL pipeline on global oil markets and greenhouse gas emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Peter; Lazarus, Michael

    2014-09-01

    Climate policy and analysis often focus on energy production and consumption, but seldom consider how energy transportation infrastructure shapes energy systems. US President Obama has recently brought these issues to the fore, stating that he would only approve the Keystone XL pipeline, connecting Canadian oil sands with US refineries and ports, if it `does not significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution'. Here, we apply a simple model to understand the implications of the pipeline for greenhouse gas emissions as a function of any resulting increase in oil sands production. We find that for every barrel of increased production, global oil consumption would increase 0.6 barrels owing to the incremental decrease in global oil prices. As a result, and depending on the extent to which the pipeline leads to greater oil sands production, the net annual impact of Keystone XL could range from virtually none to 110 million tons CO2 equivalent annually. This spread is four times wider than found by the US State Department (1-27 million tons CO2e), who did not account for global oil market effects. The approach used here, common in lifecycle analysis, could also be applied to other pending fossil fuel extraction and supply infrastructure.

  6. The sower’s way: quantifying the narrowing net-energy pathways to a global energy transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sgouridis, Sgouris; Csala, Denes; Bardi, Ugo

    2016-09-01

    Planning the appropriate renewable energy (RE) installation rate should balance two partially contradictory objectives: substituting fossil fuels fast enough to stave-off the worst consequences of climate change while maintaining a sufficient net energy flow to support the world’s economy. The upfront energy invested in constructing a RE infrastructure subtracts from the net energy available for societal energy needs, a fact typically neglected in energy projections. Modeling feasible energy transition pathways to provide different net energy levels we find that they are critically dependent on the fossil fuel emissions cap and phase-out profile and on the characteristic energy return on energy invested of the RE technologies. The easiest pathway requires installation of RE plants to accelerate from 0.12 TWp yr-1 in 2013 to peak between 7.3 and 11.6 TWp yr-1 in the late 2030s, for an early or a late fossil-fuel phase-out respectively in order for emissions to stay within the recommended CO2 budget.

  7. New global fire emission estimates and evaluation of volatile organic compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Wiedinmyer; L. K. Emmons; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; J. J. Orlando; J. A. Al-Saadi; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    A daily, high-resolution, global fire emissions model has been built to estimate emissions from open burning for air quality modeling applications: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN version 1). The model framework uses daily fire detections from the MODIS instruments and updated emission factors, specifically for speciated non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). Global...

  8. Investigation of aviation emission impacts on global tropospheric chemistry and climate using a size-resolved aerosol-chemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapadia, Zarashpe; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Borman, Duncan; Mann, Graham; Pringle, Kirsty; Monks, Sarah; Reddington, Carly; Rap, Alexandru; Scott, Catherine

    2014-05-01

    Aviation is responsible for 3% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but 2-14% of anthropogenic induced climate warming due to contributions from short lived climate forcers. The global civil aviation fleet is projected to double by 2026 in relation to a 2006 baseline and so will play a substantial role in future climate change. Uncertainty in the net impact of aviation on climate is largely due to uncertainty in the impacts of aviation emissions on ozone and aerosol. To study the impact of aviation emissions we use the GLOMAP-mode global aerosol microphysics model coupled to the 3-D chemical transport model TOMCAT. GLOMAP-mode has been extended to include treatment of nitrate aerosol. We include a full suite of non-CO2 aviation emissions (including NOX, SO2, HCs, BC and OC) in the model. We combined the simulated changes in ozone and aerosol with a 3D radiative transfer model to quantify the radiative effect due to aviation non-CO2 emissions. We find that aviation emissions increase O3 concentrations by up to 5.3% in the upper troposphere (UT), broadly matching previous studies. Black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) concentrations increase by 26.5% and 14.6% respectively in the UT, whereas nitrate aerosol is reduced in some regions due to co-emission of NOX and SO2 In the UT, aviation emissions increase both total aerosol number as well as the concentration of particles greater than 70 nm diameter (N70). Entrainment of these particles into the free troposphere results in aviation emissions also increasing N70 in the boundary layer, causing a cooling through the first aerosol indirect effect. We explore differences in these responses compared with those simulated when using the recommended aviation emissions from CMIP5 (5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project), which only include NOX and BC emissions. Our results suggest that aviation emissions of SO2 and HCs neglected by CMIP5 produce important effects on ozone, aerosol number, and N70. We suggest CMIP5

  9. Water and energy link in the cities of the future - achieving net zero carbon and pollution emissions footprint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novotny, V

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the link between water conservation, reclamation, reuse and energy use as related to the goal of achieving the net zero carbon emission footprint in future sustainable cities. It defines sustainable ecocities and outlines quantitatively steps towards the reduction of energy use due to water and used water flows, management and limits in linear and closed loop water/stormwater/wastewater management systems. The three phase water energy nexus diagram may have a minimum inflection point beyond which reduction of water demand may not result in a reduction of energy and carbon emissions. Hence, water conservation is the best alternative solution to water shortages and minimizing the carbon footprint. A marginal water/energy chart is developed and proposed to assist planners in developing future ecocities and retrofitting older communities to achieve sustainability.

  10. Energy self-reliance, net-energy production and GHG emissions in Danish organic cash crop farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halberg, Niels; Dalgaard, Randi; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2008-01-01

    -energy production were modeled. Growing rapeseed on 10% of the land could produce bio-diesel to replace 50-60% of the tractor diesel used on the farm. Increasing grass-clover area to 20% of the land and using half of this yield for biogas production could change the cash crop farm to a net energy producer......Organic farming (OF) principles include the idea of reducing dependence of fossil fuels, but little has been achieved on this objective so far in Danish OF. Energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an average 39 ha cash crop farm were calculated and alternative crop rotations for bio......, and reduce GHG emissions while reducing the overall output of products only marginally. Increasing grass-clover area would improve the nutrient management on the farm and eliminate dependence on conventional pig slurry if the biogas residues were returned to cash crop fields...

  11. International Clean Energy System Using Hydrogen Conversion (WE-NET). subtask 3. Study on the global network; Suiso riyo kokusai clean energy system gijutsu (WE-NET). subtask 3. Global network kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    As a part of the WE-NET project, the introduction condition of hydrogen as substituting energy and CO2 reduction effect were analyzed using a global energy model. The WE-NET project aims at global-wide introduction of clean energy by converting abundant renewable clean energy into hydrogen transportable to distant consumers all over the world. The study result in fiscal 1996 is as follows. Undeveloped hydroelectric resources in the world are estimated to be 12 trillion kWh/y equivalent to the existing developed one in the world. Since the cost of the hydroelectric power generation projects over 1000MW in the planning stage is estimated to be 0.02-0.05$/kWh lower than that of other renewable energies, such projects are expected as energy source in the initial stage of the practical WE-NET project. The GREEN model was modified by adding a hydrogen analysis function, and extending an analysis period. The modified model allowed evaluation of the long-term important role of hydrogen energy, in particular, the capability of CO2 gas reduction all over the world. 28 refs., 92 figs., 56 tabs.

  12. Carbon cycling of Lake Kivu (East Africa: net autotrophy in the epilimnion and emission of CO2 to the atmosphere sustained by geogenic inputs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto V Borges

    Full Text Available We report organic and inorganic carbon distributions and fluxes in a large (>2000 km2 oligotrophic, tropical lake (Lake Kivu, East Africa, acquired during four field surveys, that captured the seasonal variations (March 2007-mid rainy season, September 2007-late dry season, June 2008-early dry season, and April 2009-late rainy season. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 in surface waters of the main basin of Lake Kivu showed modest spatial (coefficient of variation between 3% and 6%, and seasonal variations with an amplitude of 163 ppm (between 579±23 ppm on average in March 2007 and 742±28 ppm on average in September 2007. The most prominent spatial feature of the pCO2 distribution was the very high pCO2 values in Kabuno Bay (a small sub-basin with little connection to the main lake ranging between 11,213 ppm and 14,213 ppm (between 18 and 26 times higher than in the main basin. Surface waters of the main basin of Lake Kivu were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere at an average rate of 10.8 mmol m(-2 d(-1, which is lower than the global average reported for freshwater, saline, and volcanic lakes. In Kabuno Bay, the CO2 emission to the atmosphere was on average 500.7 mmol m(-2 d(-1 (∼46 times higher than in the main basin. Based on whole-lake mass balance of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC bulk concentrations and of its stable carbon isotope composition, we show that the epilimnion of Lake Kivu was net autotrophic. This is due to the modest river inputs of organic carbon owing to the small ratio of catchment area to lake surface area (2.15. The carbon budget implies that the CO2 emission to the atmosphere must be sustained by DIC inputs of geogenic origin from deep geothermal springs.

  13. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  14. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset 1-kilometer Binary V003 - AG1KMB

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer Global Emissivity Database (ASTER GED) was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space...

  15. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset 100-meter Binary V003 - AG100B

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer Global Emissivity Database (ASTER GED) was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space...

  16. ASTER Global Emissivity Data Set Monthly 0.05 degree V041 - AG5KMMOH

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) is a collection of monthly files (see known issues for gaps)...

  17. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, Monthly, 0.05 deg, HDF5 V041

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) is a collection of monthly files (see known issues for gaps)...

  18. PulseNet International: Vision for the implementation of whole genome sequencing (WGS) for global food-borne disease surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadon, Celine; Van Walle, Ivo; Gerner-Smidt, Peter; Campos, Josefina; Chinen, Isabel; Concepcion-Acevedo, Jeniffer; Gilpin, Brent; Smith, Anthony M; Man Kam, Kai; Perez, Enrique; Trees, Eija; Kubota, Kristy; Takkinen, Johanna; Nielsen, Eva Møller; Carleton, Heather

    2017-06-08

    PulseNet International is a global network dedicated to laboratory-based surveillance for food-borne diseases. The network comprises the national and regional laboratory networks of Africa, Asia Pacific, Canada, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East, and the United States. The PulseNet International vision is the standardised use of whole genome sequencing (WGS) to identify and subtype food-borne bacterial pathogens worldwide, replacing traditional methods to strengthen preparedness and response, reduce global social and economic disease burden, and save lives. To meet the needs of real-time surveillance, the PulseNet International network will standardise subtyping via WGS using whole genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST), which delivers sufficiently high resolution and epidemiological concordance, plus unambiguous nomenclature for the purposes of surveillance. Standardised protocols, validation studies, quality control programmes, database and nomenclature development, and training should support the implementation and decentralisation of WGS. Ideally, WGS data collected for surveillance purposes should be publicly available, in real time where possible, respecting data protection policies. WGS data are suitable for surveillance and outbreak purposes and for answering scientific questions pertaining to source attribution, antimicrobial resistance, transmission patterns, and virulence, which will further enable the protection and improvement of public health with respect to food-borne disease. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

  19. AMSR-E/Aqua Monthly Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System...

  20. The computation of carbon emissions due to the net payload on a truck

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turkensteen, Marcel

    , it is necessary to compute the carbon emissions of these decisions. Current studies are only able to determine this for very specific conditions, such as a given vehicle under given driving conditions, and they may require many input parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a simple and broadly applicable...... values can then be used to evaluate the carbon emission savings of many decisions related to the load on the vehicle, e.g., the decision to drive less frequently but with more load on the vehicle....

  1. Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fang; Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.; Streets, David G.

    2014-04-01

    Estimates of future emissions are necessary for understanding the future health of the atmosphere, designing national and international strategies for air quality control, and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so, thus it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. This paper is the second in a series that seeks to establish a more mechanistic understanding of future air pollutant emissions based on changes in technology. The first paper in this series (Yan et al., 2011) described a model that projects emissions based on dynamic changes of vehicle fleet, Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard-Trend, or SPEW-Trend. In this paper, we explore the underlying uncertainties of global and regional exhaust PM emission projections from on-road vehicles in the coming decades using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. This work examines the emission sensitivities due to uncertainties in retirement rate, timing of emission standards, transition rate of high-emitting vehicles called “superemitters”, and emission factor degradation rate. It is concluded that global emissions are most sensitive to parameters in the retirement rate function. Monte Carlo simulations show that emission uncertainty caused by lack of knowledge about technology composition is comparable to the uncertainty demonstrated by alternative economic scenarios, especially during the period 2010-2030.

  2. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    , changes in natural vegetation composition caused a decreasing trend for monoterpene emissions. Future global isoprene and monoterpene emissions depend strongly on the climate and land-use scenarios considered. Over the 21st century, global isoprene emissions are simulated to either remain stable (RCP 4.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... both natural vegetation dynamics and anthropogenic changes in land-use into account when estimating past and future BVOC emissions. They also indicate that a future global increase in BVOC emissions is improbable....

  3. The FLaReNet Thematic Network: a Global Forum for Cooperation

    OpenAIRE

    Calzolari, Nicoletta; Soria, Claudia

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this short paper is to present the FLaReNet Thematic Network for Language Resources and Language Technologies to the Asian Language Resources Community. Creation of a wide and committed community and of a shared policy in the field of Language Resources is essential in order to foster a substantial advancement of the field. This paper presents the background, overall objectives and methodology of work of the project, as well as a set of preliminary results.

  4. Global Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production for Biomass Consumption in the European Union, 1986–2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erb, Karl‐Heinz; Haberl, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    Summary The ongoing globalization process strengthens the connections between different geographic regions through trade. Biomass products, such as food, fiber, or bioenergy, are increasingly traded globally, thereby leading to telecouplings between distant, seemingly unrelated regions. For example, restrictions for agricultural production or changes in bioenergy demand in Europe or the United States might contribute to deforestation in Latin America or Sub‐Saharan Africa. One approach to analyze trade‐related land‐use effects of the global socioeconomic biomass metabolism is the “embodied human appropriation of net primary production” or eHANPP. eHANPP accounts allocate to any product the entire amount of the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) that emerges throughout its supply chain. This allows consumption‐based accounts to move beyond simple area‐demand approaches by taking differences in natural productivity as well as in land‐use intensity into account, both across land‐use types as well as across world regions. In this article, we discuss the eHANPP related to the European Union's (EU) consumption of biomass products in the period 1986–2007, based on a consistent global trade data set derived from bilateral data. We find a considerable dependency of the EU on the appropriation of biological productivity outside its own boundaries, with increasing reliance on Latin America as a main supplier. By using the EU as an illustrative example, we demonstrate the usefulness of eHANPP for assessing land‐use impacts caused by nations’ socioeconomic activities and conclude that the eHANPP approach can provide useful information to better manage ecosystems globally in the face of an increasingly interconnected world. PMID:27524879

  5. Effects of nitrogen application rates on net annual global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in double-rice cropping systems of the Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhongdu; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Hailin; Liu, Shengli

    2016-12-01

    The net global warming potential (NGWP) and net greenhouse gas intensity (NGHGI) of double-rice cropping systems are not well documented. We measured the NGWP and NGHGI including soil organic carbon (SOC) change and indirect emissions (IE) from double-crop rice fields with fertilizing systems in Southern China. These experiments with three different nitrogen (N) application rates since 2012 are as follows: 165 kgN ha -1 for early rice and 225 kgN ha -1 for late rice (N1), which was the local N application rates as the control; 135 kgN ha -1 for early rice and 180 kgN ha -1 for late rice (N2, 20 % reduction); and 105 kgN ha -1 for early rice and 135 kgN ha -1 for late rice (N3, 40 % reduction). Results showed that yields increased with the increase of N application rate, but without significant difference between N1 and N2 plots. Annual SOC sequestration rate under N1 was estimated to be 1.15 MgC ha -1  year -1 , which was higher than those under other fertilizing systems. Higher N application tended to increase CH 4 emissions during the flooded rice season and significantly increased N 2 O emissions from drained soils during the nonrice season, ranking as N1 > N2 > N3 with significant difference (P < 0.05). Two-year average IE has a huge contribution to GHG emissions mainly coming from the higher N inputs in the double-rice cropping system. Reducing N fertilizer usage can effectively decrease the NGWP and NGHGI in the double-rice cropping system, with the lowest NGHGI obtained in the N2 plot (0.99 kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 yield year -1 ). The results suggested that agricultural economic viability and GHG mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by properly reducing N fertilizer application in double-rice cropping systems.

  6. Bringing Information Credibility Back Into Transparency: The Case for a Global Monitoring System Of Green House Gas Emissions

    CERN Document Server

    Philippe, Sébastien

    2016-01-01

    The goal of climate change governance is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. This requires the reduction of anthropogenic global net emissions. In the pursuit of such a reduction, knowledge of greenhouse gas sources and sinks is critical to define baselines, and assess the effectiveness of climate governance over time. Such information and the means to independently verify its credibility continue to remain out of reach including in the recent Paris agreement. This essay argues that to make real progress in mitigating future climate change, this status quo must be challenged both intellectually and practically. First, it proposes to acknowledge and address the inconsistency between the objectives of a climate regime and the role of transparency as a mean to achieve these objectives. It does so by redefining transparency as the addition of publicity and measurability, which turns it into a credible information generating mechanism for governance. Second, it shows how in practice, a global monitoring sy...

  7. Reducing global mercury emissions in artisanal and small-scale ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-28

    caused mercury emissions, surpassing even coal-burning. With more than 15 million small-scale gold miners operating in more than 70 countries today, finding a way to reduce mercury emissions is vital.

  8. GLOBAL FIRE EMISSIONS DATABASE, VERSION 3.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides monthly burned area, and monthly, and annual fire emissions data from July 1996 to February 2012. Emissions data are available for...

  9. Global Fire Emissions Database, Version 3.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides monthly burned area, and monthly, and annual fire emissions data from July 1996 to February 2012. Emissions data are available for carbon (C),...

  10. Reducing global mercury emissions in artisanal and small-scale ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    caused mercury emissions, surpassing even coal-burning. With more than 15 million small-scale gold miners operating in more than 70 countries today, finding a way to reduce mercury emissions is vital.

  11. Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benveniste, Hélène; Boucher, Olivier; Guivarch, Céline; Le Treut, Hervé; Criqui, Patrick

    2018-01-01

    Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before and after the 21st Conference of Parties, summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025–2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for the format of NDCs, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8–66.5 Gt CO2eq yr‑1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010–2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming ‘climate regime’: a clearer framework regarding future NDCs’ design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.

  12. MINIMIZING NET CO2 EMISSIONS BY OXIDATIVE CO-PYROLYSIS OF COAL / BIOMASS BLENDS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todd Lang; Robert Hurt

    2001-12-23

    This study presents a set of thermodynamic calculations on the optimal mode of solid fuel utilization considering a wide range of fuel types and processing technologies. The technologies include stand-alone combustion, biomass/coal cofiring, oxidative pyrolysis, and straight carbonization with no energy recovery but with elemental carbon storage. The results show that the thermodynamically optimal way to process solid fuels depends strongly on the specific fuels and technologies available, the local demand for heat or for electricity, and the local baseline energy-production method. Burning renewable fuels reduces anthropogenic CO{sub 2} emissions as widely recognized. In certain cases, however, other processing methods are equally or more effective, including the simple carbonization or oxidative pyrolysis of biomass fuels.

  13. NetSat-4G A four nano-satellite formation for global geomagnetic gradiometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogueira, Tiago; Scharnagl, Julian; Kotsiaros, Stavros

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a concept for a Global GeomaGnetic Gradiometry (4G) nano-satellite mission. The proposed concept makes use of a formation of four nano-satellites carrying vector magnetometers and flying in a Cartwheel-Helix formation at low altitude. The use of four satellites makes possible ...

  14. Comparison of global 3-D aviation emissions datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Olsen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aviation emissions are unique from other transportation emissions, e.g., from road transportation and shipping, in that they occur at higher altitudes as well as at the surface. Aviation emissions of carbon dioxide, soot, and water vapor have direct radiative impacts on the Earth's climate system while emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide (CO, and hydrocarbons (HC impact air quality and climate through their effects on ozone, methane, and clouds. The most accurate estimates of the impact of aviation on air quality and climate utilize three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and gridded four dimensional (space and time aviation emissions datasets. We compare five available aviation emissions datasets currently and historically used to evaluate the impact of aviation on climate and air quality: NASA-Boeing 1992, NASA-Boeing 1999, QUANTIFY 2000, Aero2k 2002, and AEDT 2006 and aviation fuel usage estimates from the International Energy Agency. Roughly 90% of all aviation emissions are in the Northern Hemisphere and nearly 60% of all fuelburn and NOx emissions occur at cruise altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. While these datasets were created by independent methods and are thus not strictly suitable for analyzing trends they suggest that commercial aviation fuelburn and NOx emissions increased over the last two decades while HC emissions likely decreased and CO emissions did not change significantly. The bottom-up estimates compared here are consistently lower than International Energy Agency fuelburn statistics although the gap is significantly smaller in the more recent datasets. Overall the emissions distributions are quite similar for fuelburn and NOx with regional peaks over the populated land masses of North America, Europe, and East Asia. For CO and HC there are relatively larger differences. There are however some distinct differences in the altitude distribution

  15. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  16. Biochar amendment reduces paddy soil nitrogen leaching but increases net global warming potential in Ningxia irrigation, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongsheng; Liu, Yansui; Liu, Ruliang; Zhang, Aiping; Yang, Shiqi; Liu, Hongyuan; Zhou, Yang; Yang, Zhengli

    2017-05-09

    The efficacy of biochar as an environmentally friendly agent for non-point source and climate change mitigation remains uncertain. Our goal was to test the impact of biochar amendment on paddy rice nitrogen (N) uptake, soil N leaching, and soil CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes in northwest China. Biochar was applied at four rates (0, 4.5, 9 and13.5 t ha -1 yr -1 ). Biochar amendment significantly increased rice N uptake, soil total N concentration and the abundance of soil ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), but it significantly reduced the soil NO 3 - -N concentration and soil bulk density. Biochar significantly reduced NO 3 - -N and NH 4 + -N leaching. The C2 and C3 treatments significantly increased the soil CH 4 flux and reduced the soil N 2 O flux, leading to significantly increased net global warming potential (GWP). Soil NO 3 - -N rather than NH 4 + -N was the key integrator of the soil CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes. Our results indicate that a shift in abundance of the AOA community and increased rice N uptake are closely linked to the reduced soil NO 3 - -N concentration under biochar amendment. Furthermore, soil NO 3 - -N availability plays an important role in regulating soil inorganic N leaching and net GWP in rice paddies in northwest China.

  17. Climatic variability, hydrologic anomaly, and methane emission can turn productive freshwater marshes into net carbon sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Housen; Gottgens, Johan F; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge; Desai, Ankur R; Ouyang, Zutao; Shao, Changliang; Czajkowski, Kevin

    2015-03-01

    Freshwater marshes are well-known for their ecological functions in carbon sequestration, but complete carbon budgets that include both methane (CH4 ) and lateral carbon fluxes for these ecosystems are rarely available. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first full carbon balance for a freshwater marsh where vertical gaseous [carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and CH4 ] and lateral hydrologic fluxes (dissolved and particulate organic carbon) have been simultaneously measured for multiple years (2011-2013). Carbon accumulation in the sediments suggested that the marsh was a long-term carbon sink and accumulated ~96.9 ± 10.3 (±95% CI) g C m(-2)  yr(-1) during the last ~50 years. However, abnormal climate conditions in the last 3 years turned the marsh to a source of carbon (42.7 ± 23.4 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ). Gross ecosystem production and ecosystem respiration were the two largest fluxes in the annual carbon budget. Yet, these two fluxes compensated each other to a large extent and led to the marsh being a CO2 sink in 2011 (-78.8 ± 33.6 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ), near CO2 -neutral in 2012 (29.7 ± 37.2 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ), and a CO2 source in 2013 (92.9 ± 28.0 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ). The CH4 emission was consistently high with a three-year average of 50.8 ± 1.0 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) . Considerable hydrologic carbon flowed laterally both into and out of the marsh (108.3 ± 5.4 and 86.2 ± 10.5 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) , respectively). In total, hydrologic carbon fluxes contributed ~23 ± 13 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) to the three-year carbon budget. Our findings highlight the importance of lateral hydrologic inflows/outflows in wetland carbon budgets, especially in those characterized by a flow-through hydrologic regime. In addition, different carbon fluxes responded unequally to climate variability/anomalies and, thus, the total carbon budgets may vary drastically among years. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Calculation of global carbon dioxide emissions: Review of emission factors and a new approach taking fuel quality into consideration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiete, M.; Berner, U.; Richter, O. [Technical University of Braunschweig, Braunschweig (Germany). Inst. of Geoecology

    2001-07-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions resulting from fossil fuel consumption play a major role in the current debate on climate change. Carbon dioxide emissions are calculated on the basis of a carbon dioxide emission factor (CEF) for each type of fuel. This paper reviews published CEFs are reviewed. It was found that for nearly all CEFs, fuel quality is not adequately taken into account. This is especially true in the case of the CEFs for coal. Published CEFs are often based on generalized assumptions and inexact conversions. In particular, conversions from gross calorific value to net calorific value were examined. A new method for determining CEFs as a function of calorific value (for coal, peat, and natural gas) and specific gravity (for crude oil) is presented that permits CEFs to be calculated for specific fuel qualities.

  19. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  20. How volcano monitoring in New Zealand can contribute to a global volcano dataset: The GeoNet Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, G. E.; Scott, B.

    2009-12-01

    Volcanism plays an important role in New Zealand. Much of the landscape of the central North Island owes its shape to volcanism, with the soils supporting forestry and farming economies, geothermal systems providing renewable electricity production and the spectacular landscape supporting tourism and adventure. However volcanism also has it disadvantages: eruptive activity brings physical damage and economic losses and, sometimes, tragically the loss of life. Historically, in New Zealand, volcanoes represent the largest single source of fatalities from natural disasters. To better mitigate the hazard from New Zealand’s volcanoes, a multidisciplinary approach is applied. In 2001 the NZ Earthquake Commission (EQC) commenced funding the GeoNet project, providing the first totally national modern geological hazard monitoring system in New Zealand. The GeoNet project is responsibly for monitoring and assessing all of the active volcanoes (and other geological hazards) in New Zealand. The volcano monitoring programme is integrated into the national seismograph and geodetic networks. The volcano monitoring covers active volcanic cones, resting calderas, volcanic fields, and submarine volcanoes. Monitoring techniques include volcano seismology, geodesy, gas and water chemistry, remote sensing and other geophysical techniques, producing a wide variety of data sets, with both temporal and spatial distribution. These data sets form the basis for detailed research to achieve in depth understanding of these volcanoes and will contribute to the global knowledge of volcanic processes. However to achieve this the data sets need to be accessible by a range of end users, so that they can be used to underpin fundamental research and applied hazard assessments. This presentation will outline the NZ data sets and the problems of presenting and sharing them globally.

  1. A comprehensive global inventory of atmospheric Antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities, 1995-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hezhong; Zhou, JunRui; Zhu, Chuanyong; Zhao, Dan; Gao, Jiajia; Hao, Jiming; He, Mengchang; Liu, Kaiyun; Wang, Kun; Hua, Shenbing

    2014-09-02

    Antimony (Sb) and its compounds are considered as global pollutants due to their health risks and long-range transport characteristics. A comprehensive global inventory of atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities during the period of 1995-2010 has been developed with specific estimation methods based on the relevant data available for different continents and countries. Our results indicate that the global antimony emissions have increased to a peak at about 2232 t (t) in 2005 and then declined gradually. Global antimony emissions in 2010 are estimated at about 1904 t (uncertainty of a 95% confidence interval (CI): -30% ∼ 67%), with fuel combustion as the major source category. Asia and Europe account for about 57% and 24%, respectively, of the global total emissions, and China, the United States, and Japan rank as the top three emitting countries. Furthermore, global antimony emissions are distributed into gridded cells with a resolution of 1° × 1°. Regions with high Sb emissions are generally concentrated in the Southeastern Asia and Western Europe, while South Africa, economically developed regions in the eastern U.S., and Mexico are also responsible for the high antimony emission intensity.

  2. EU effect: Exporting emission standards for vehicles through the global market economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crippa, M; Janssens-Maenhout, G; Guizzardi, D; Galmarini, S

    2016-12-01

    Emission data from EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), rather than economic data, are used to estimate the effect of policies and of the global exports of policy-regulated goods, such as vehicles, on global emissions. The results clearly show that the adoption of emission standards for the road transport sector in the two main global markets (Europe and North America) has led to the global proliferation of emission-regulated vehicles through exports, regardless the domestic regulation in the country of destination. It is in fact more economically convenient for vehicle manufacturers to produce and sell a standard product to the widest possible market and in the greatest possible amounts. The EU effect (European Union effect) is introduced as a global counterpart to the California effect. The former is a direct consequence of the penetration of the EURO standards in the global markets by European and Japanese manufacturers, which effectively export the standard worldwide. We analyze the effect on PM2.5 emissions by comparing a scenario of non-EURO standards against the current estimates provided by EDGAR. We find that PM2.5 emissions were reduced by more than 60% since the 1990s worldwide. Similar investigations on other pollutants confirm the hypothesis that the combined effect of technological regulations and their diffusion through global markets can also produce a positive effect on the global environment. While we acknowledge the positive feedback, we also demonstrate that current efforts and standards will be totally insufficient should the passenger car fleets in emerging markets reach Western per capita figures. If emerging countries reach the per capita vehicle number of the USA and Europe under current technological conditions, then the world will suffer pre-1990 emission levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennetzen, Eskild H; Smith, Pete; Porter, John R

    2016-02-01

    Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop- and livestock-production, respectively. Except for the energy-use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business-as-usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20-55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2-14.5 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food-system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis. © 2015 John Wiley

  4. Sensitivity of Surface Air Quality and Global Mortality to Global, Regional, and Sectoral Black Carbon Emission Reductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anenberg, S.; Talgo, K.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; Arunachalam, S.; West, J.

    2010-12-01

    Black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) released during incomplete combustion, is associated with atmospheric warming and deleterious health impacts, including premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality. A growing body of literature suggests that controlling emissions may therefore have dual benefits for climate and health. Several studies have focused on quantifying the potential impacts of reducing BC emissions from various world regions and economic sectors on radiative forcing. However, the impacts of these reductions on human health have been less well studied. Here, we use a global chemical transport model (MOZART-4) and a health impact function to quantify the surface air quality and human health benefits of controlling BC emissions. We simulate a base case and several emission control scenarios, where anthropogenic BC emissions are reduced by half globally, individually in each of eight world regions, and individually from the residential, industrial, and transportation sectors. We also simulate a global 50% reduction of both BC and organic carbon (OC) together, since they are co-emitted and both are likely to be impacted by actual control measures. Meteorology and biomass burning emissions are for the year 2002 with anthropogenic BC and OC emissions for 2000 from the IPCC AR5 inventory. Model performance is evaluated by comparing to global surface measurements of PM2.5 components. Avoided premature mortalities are calculated using the change in PM2.5 concentration between the base case and emission control scenarios and a concentration-response factor for chronic mortality from the epidemiology literature.

  5. Global Peatland Carbon Balance and Land Use Change CO2 Emissions Through the Holocene

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides a time series of global peatland carbon balance and carbon dioxide emissions from land use change throughout the Holocene (the past 11,000...

  6. Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

  7. Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990-2020

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The data in these Appendices to the Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases (1990-2020) report provide historical and projected estimates of...

  8. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, Monthly, 0.05 deg, HDF5 V004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AG5KMMOH.004 dataset was decommissioned as of December 14, 2016. Users are encouraged to use Version 4.1 of ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset, Monthly, 0.05...

  9. Global Fire Emissions Database, Version 2.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set consists of 1 degree x 1 degree gridded monthly burned area, fuel loads, combustion completeness, and fire emissions of carbon (C), carbon...

  10. Simulating the global climate impact of aircraft emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Ponater, M.; Brinkop, S.; Dameris, M.; Feneberg, B.; Grewe, V.; Hein, R.; Koehler, I.; Land, C.; Schumann, U.; Stuber, N. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-01

    Several aspects of aircraft impact on the climate are investigated by means of GCM simulations: The direct climate effect of aircraft water vapour emissions is negligible. Contrails have the potential for significant climate modifications. NO{sub x} emissions by aircraft cause an essential enhancement of the background NO{sub x} concentration and an increase of the O{sub 3} concentration. Finally, aircraft induced ozone changes result in a statistically significant tropospheric warming. (orig.) 144 figs., 42 tabs., 497 refs.

  11. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Arneth, Almut

    2017-04-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901-2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century, changes in natural vegetation composition caused a decreasing trend for monoterpene emissions. Future global isoprene and monoterpene emissions depend strongly on the climate and land-use scenarios considered. Over the 21st century, global isoprene emissions are simulated to either remain stable (RCP 4.5), or decrease further (RCP 8.5), with important differences depending on the underlying land-use scenario. Future monoterpene emissions are expected to continue their present decreasing trend for all scenarios, possibly stabilizing from 2050 onwards (RCP 4.5). These results demonstrate the importance to take both natural vegetation dynamics and anthropogenic changes in land-use into account when estimating past and future BVOC emissions. They also indicate that a future global increase in BVOC emissions is improbable.

  12. A multiyear, global gridded fossil fuel CO2 emission data product: Evaluation and analysis of results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asefi-Najafabady, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Gurney, K. R.; McRobert, A.; Song, Y.; Coltin, K.; Huang, J.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

    2014-09-01

    High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO2 emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

  13. Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

    2013-06-18

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1° × 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). The global total annual atmospheric emission of 16 PAHs in 2007 was 504 Gg (331-818 Gg, as interquartile range), with residential/commercial biomass burning (60.5%), open-field biomass burning (agricultural waste burning, deforestation, and wildfire, 13.6%), and petroleum consumption by on-road motor vehicles (12.8%) as the major sources. South (87 Gg), East (111 Gg), and Southeast Asia (52 Gg) were the regions with the highest PAH emission densities, contributing half of the global total PAH emissions. Among the global total PAH emissions, 6.19% of the emissions were in the form of high molecular weight carcinogenic compounds and the percentage of the carcinogenic PAHs was higher in developing countries (6.22%) than in developed countries (5.73%), due to the differences in energy structures and the disparities of technology. The potential health impact of the PAH emissions was greatest in the parts of the world with high anthropogenic PAH emissions, because of the overlap of the high emissions and high population densities. Global total PAH emissions peaked at 592 Gg in 1995 and declined gradually to 499 Gg in 2008. Total PAH emissions from developed countries peaked at 122 Gg in the early 1970s and decreased to 38 Gg in 2008. Simulation of PAH emissions from 2009 to 2030 revealed that PAH emissions in developed and developing countries would decrease by 46-71% and 48-64%, respectively, based on the six IPCC SRES scenarios.

  14. Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiulia, N.M.; Hofstra, N.; Vermeulen, L.C.; Obara, M.A.; Medema, G.J.; Rose, J.B.

    2015-01-01

    Group A rotaviruses (RV) are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV

  15. Deep CO2 emission reductions in a global bottom-up model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Hof, Andries; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    Most studies that explore deep GHG emission reduction scenarios assume that climate goals are reached by implementing least-cost emission mitigation options, typically by implementing a global carbon tax. Although such a method provides insight into total mitigation costs, it does not provide much

  16. Building and characterizing regional and global emission inventories of toxic pollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucurachi, Stefano; Sala, Serenella; Laurent, Alexis; Heijungs, Reinout

    2014-05-20

    To define consistent strategies for managing the environmental sustainability of chemicals, it is important to quantify the magnitude of their emissions and their associated impacts. Not all countries monitor and report emissions related to their activities. This is particularly the case for chemical emissions, whose toxic impacts on human health and ecosystems cannot be readily determined because of gaps in the available data. Emission data that can be retrieved from publicly available databases are typically restricted to a limited number of toxic substances, for a few countries, or for aggregated regions. Extrapolation strategies are thus needed to fill in those data gaps and to move from the consideration of single countries or regions to the world scale. Little is known about how effective these strategies are in extrapolating emissions. With the use of emission data available in public databases in the world, the current work explores different opportunities to compile representative inventories of toxic emissions. In this study, we build global and European emission inventories using three extrapolation proxies, namely the gross domestic product, the emissions of carbon dioxide, and the emissions of mercury. The three proxies are compared and their efficacies are tested statistically to identify the best performer for specific classes of substances. The potential impacts associated with the emissions in the European and global inventory are further tested by using an impact system adopted for the comparative assessment of chemicals in the field of life cycle assessment.

  17. A 3??C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory cancels benefits of European emission reductions on air quality

    OpenAIRE

    A. Fortems-Cheiney; Foret, G.; G. Siour; Vautard, R.; Szopa, S.; Dufour, G.; Colette, A.; Lacressonniere, G.; M. Beekmann

    2017-01-01

    Despite the international agreement to reduce global warming to below 2??C, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted for the COP21 would lead to a global temperature rise of about 3??C. The relative consequences of such a one-degree additional warming have not yet been investigated for regional air quality. Here we found that a?+?3??C global pollutant emission trajectory with respect to pre-industrial climate (reached along the 2040?2069 period under a RCP8.5 scenario) would...

  18. Global EDGAR v4.1 emissions of air pollutants: analysis of impacts of emissions abatement in industry and road transport on regional and global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Olivier, J. G.; Doering, U. M.; van Aardenne, J.; Monni, S.; Pagliari, V.; Peters, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    The new version v4.1 of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) compiled by JRC and PBL provides independent estimates of the global anthropogenic emissions and emission trends of precursors of tropospheric ozone (CO, NMVOC, NOx) and acidifying substances (NOx, NH3, SO2) for the period 1970-2005. All emissions are detailed at country level consistently using the same technology-based methodology, combining activity data (international statistics) from publicly available sources and to the extent possible emission factors as recommended by the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook. By using high resolution global grid maps per source category of area sources and point sources, we also compiled datasets with annual emissions on a 0.1x0.1 degree grid, as input for atmospheric models. We provide full and up-to-date inventories per country, also for developing countries. Moreover, the time series back in time to 1970 provides for the trends in official national inventories a historic perspective. As part of our objective to contribute to more reliable inventories by providing a reference emissions database for emission scenarios, inventory comparisons and for atmospheric modellers, we strive to transparently document all data sources used and assumptions made where data was missing, in particular for assumptions made on the shares of technologies where relevant. Technology mixes per country or region were taken from other data sources (such as the Platts database) or estimated using other sources or countries as proxy. The evolution in the adoption of technologies world-wide over the 35 years covered by EDGAR v4.1 will be illustrated for the power industry and the road transport sectors, in particular for Europe and the US. Similarly the regional and global impacts of implemented control measures and end-of pipe abatements will be illustrated by the examples of - NOx and SO2 end-of pipe abatements being implemented since the late

  19. Global emissions of terpenoid VOCs from terrestrial vegetation in the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Smolander, S.; Struthers, H.; Zorita, E.; Ekman, A. M. L.; Kaplan, J. O.; Guenther, A.; Arneth, A.; Riipinen, I.

    2014-06-01

    We investigated the millennial variability (1000 A.D.-2000 A.D.) of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene, and sesquiterpene, and Lund-Potsdam-Jena-General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission trends were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have significant short-term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively), and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1(15% and 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1(10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1(10% and 4% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar emission trends, the magnitude of the emissions are different. This highlights the importance of building better constraints on VOC emissions from terrestrial vegetation.

  20. Options for utilizing the CDM for global emission reductions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butzengeiger-Geyer, Sonja; Castro, Paula; Harthan, Ralph O.; Hayashi, Daisuke; Healy, Sean; Maribu, Karl Magnus; Michaelowa, Axel; Okubo, Yuri; Schneider, Lambert; Storroe, Ingunn [Zuerich Univ. (Switzerland); Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Perspectives GmbH, Hamburg (Germany); Point Carbon A/S, Oslo (Norway)

    2010-11-15

    The study describes and discusses in detail how four CDM reform alternatives, namely discounting of emission reductions, ambitious baselines, purchase and cancellation of CERs and reinvestment of CER levies, could be integrated in a Post-2012 climate regime. The study assesses these alternatives, according to their impacts on GHG emission reductions, contribution to sustainable development, cost-efficiency, technical feasibility, incentives and distributional effects as well as negotiability. The study shows that the introduction of discounting and ambitious baselines is technically feasible but politically a massive challenge. With the help of an economic model the study shows that the introduction of reform alternatives increases the amount of emission reductions but in comparison to the current CDM the impact is rather limited. But a CDM reform can in any case increase the credibility and improve the environmental integrity of the mechanism. (orig.)

  1. Global assessment of shipping emissions in 2015 on a high spatial and temporal resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Lasse; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Kukkonen, Jaakko

    2017-10-01

    We present a comprehensive global shipping emission inventory and the global activities of ships for the year 2015. The emissions were evaluated using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM3), which uses Automatic Identification System data to describe the traffic activities of ships. We have improved the model regarding (i) the evaluation of the missing technical specifications of ships, and (ii) the treatment of shipping activities in case of sparse satellite AIS-data. We have developed a model for the collection and processing of available information on the technical specifications, using data assimilation techniques. We have also developed a path regeneration model that constructs, whenever necessary, the detailed geometry of the ship routes. The presented results for fuel consumption were qualitatively in agreement both with those in the 3rd Greenhouse Gas Study of the International Maritime Organisation and those reported by the International Energy Agency. We have also presented high-resolution global spatial distributions of the shipping emissions of NOx, CO2, SO2 and PM2.5. The emissions were also analysed in terms of selected sea areas, ship categories, the sizes of ships and flag states. The emission datasets provided by this study are available upon request; the datasets produced by the model can be utilized as input data for air quality modelling on a global scale, including the full temporal and spatial variation of shipping emissions for the first time. Dispersion modelling using this inventory as input can be used to assess the impacts of various emission abatement scenarios. The emission computation methods presented in this paper could also be used, e.g., to provide annual updates of the global ship emissions.

  2. Critical Review of Trends in GHG Emissions from Global Automotive Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Mondal, P.; Kumar, Abhishek; Agarwal, Varun; Sharma, Nitin; Vijay, Prashant; Bhangale, U. D.; Tyagi, Dinesh

    2011-01-01

    Between 1906 and 2005, records show that global average air temperature near the earth’s surface increased by 0.74 ± 0.18°C. If emissions of greenhouse gases, and in particular CO2, continue unabated the enhanced greenhouse effect may alter the world’s climate system irreversibly. Total emissions of greenhouse gases, across all sectors, were 42.4 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2-eq in 2005. Energy sector, accounts for 84% of global CO2 emissions and 64% of the world’s green...

  3. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, M.; Meinshausen, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this

  4. Global Emissions of Terpenoid VOCs from Terrestrial Vegetation in the Last Millennium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Smolander, S.; Struthers, H.; Zorita, E.; Ekman, A. M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Guenther, Alex B.; Arneth, A.; Riipinen, I.

    2014-06-16

    We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8 GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have signicant short term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during during 1750-1850 and 1000- 15 1200, respectively) and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1 (15% and 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1 (10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% 19 20 less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1 (10% and 4% higher than during1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends ofglobal isoprene emissions to be mostly a*ected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid

  5. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  6. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  7. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-08-21

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  8. Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Sherwood, Owen A; Bruhwiler, Lori M P; Miller, John B; Etiope, Giuseppe; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Michel, Sylvia Englund; Arling, Victoria A; Vaughn, Bruce H; White, James W C; Tans, Pieter P

    2016-10-06

    Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.

  9. On the 'Net Impact' of Europeanization. The EU's telecoms and electricity regimes between the global and the national

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Levi-Faur

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Does Europeanization matter, and, if so, to what extent and in what respects? While research on the European Union is thriving, only limited efforts have been directed towards a discussion of this crucial question. This paper examines the outcome of the EU policy process from various comparative perspectives in an effort to distinguish the 'net effects' of EU membership and EU-level policy outcomes from more general – perhaps global – processes of change. The effects of EU membership are discussed in relation to the process of liberalization and the major question raised is whether Europeanization matters for the advance of liberalization. In responding to this question, the paper advances the following major argument: While the Europeanization of the telecoms and electricity industries has led to some liberalization, it is at best a mediating variable, not an independent one. The major features of liberalization would have been diffused to practically all member states even in the absence of the European Commission and other agents of supranationalism. This is not to suggest that Europeanization does not matter, but that it matters in less obvious and perhaps less critical ways than is frequently assumed. These arguments are supported by comparative empirical analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of liberalization across nations and sectors, and by a comparison of the diffusion of liberalization today with the diffusion of nationalization in the past.

  10. On the 'Net Impact' of Europeanization. The EU's telecoms and electricity regimes between the global and the national

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Levi-Faur

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Does Europeanization matter, and, if so, to what extent and in what respects? While research on the European Union is thriving, only limited efforts have been directed towards a discussion of this crucial question. This paper examines the outcome of the EU policy process from various comparative perspectives in an effort to distinguish the 'net effects' of EU membership and EU-level policy outcomes from more general perhaps global processes of change. The effects of EU membership are discussed in relation to the process of liberalization and the major question raised is whether Europeanization matters for the advance of liberalization. In responding to this question, the paper advances the following major argument: While the Europeanization of the telecoms and electricity industries has led to some liberalization, it is at best a mediating variable, not an independent one. The major features of liberalization would have been diffused to practically all member states even in the absence of the European Commission and other agents of supranationalism. This is not to suggest that Europeanization does not matter, but that it matters in less obvious and perhaps less critical ways than is frequently assumed. These arguments are supported by comparative empirical analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of liberalization across nations and sectors, and by a comparison of the diffusion of liberalization today with the diffusion of nationalization in the past.

  11. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  12. Tracing trade-related telecouplings in the global land-system using the embodied human appropriation of net primary production framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberl, H.; Kastner, T.; Schaffartzik, A.; Erb, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    Global land-system change is influenced by a complex set of drivers that transcend spatial, institutional and temporal scales. The notion of "telecouplings" is gaining importance in Land System Science as a framework to address that complexity of drivers. One of them is the trade in land-based products, which forges connections between different geographic regions. Trade in land-based products is growing rapidly, thereby creating an increasing spatial disconnect between the locations where primary products (e.g. crops, fodder or timber) are grown and harvested and where the related environmental pressures occur, and the locations where final products (e.g. food, fiber or bioenergy) are consumed. Governing land-related sustainability issues such as GHG emissions or pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems related with land-use changes requires information on trade-related telecouplings, e.g. in order to avoid leakage effects. However, tracing land use (change) related with flows of traded products is challenging, among others due to (a) the lack of easily implementable metrics to account for differences in land quality and land-use intensity, and (b) the lack of satisfactory methods to allocate land to products that are traded and consumed. Drawing from a database derived from FAO statistics that allows tracing bilateral trade flows between ~200 countries at a resolution of ~500 products for the time period 1986-2006, this presentation will discuss how the framework of embodied human appropriation of net primary production (eHANPP) can help tackling these difficult issues. The HANPP framework allows to consistently represent important aspects of land quality and land-use intensity, e.g. natural productivity potential or land-use efficiency. In terms of allocation of land to products, eHANPP is a factor-based approach, and the presentation will discuss differences to alternative methods such as environmentally extended input-output analysis. We will use the available

  13. Methane emissions from wetlands: biogeochemical, microbial, and modeling perspectives from local to global scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridgham, Scott D; Cadillo-Quiroz, Hinsby; Keller, Jason K; Zhuang, Qianlai

    2013-05-01

    Understanding the dynamics of methane (CH4 ) emissions is of paramount importance because CH4 has 25 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and is currently the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Wetlands are the single largest natural CH4 source with median emissions from published studies of 164 Tg yr(-1) , which is about a third of total global emissions. We provide a perspective on important new frontiers in obtaining a better understanding of CH4 dynamics in natural systems, with a focus on wetlands. One of the most exciting recent developments in this field is the attempt to integrate the different methodologies and spatial scales of biogeochemistry, molecular microbiology, and modeling, and thus this is a major focus of this review. Our specific objectives are to provide an up-to-date synthesis of estimates of global CH4 emissions from wetlands and other freshwater aquatic ecosystems, briefly summarize major biogeophysical controls over CH4 emissions from wetlands, suggest new frontiers in CH4 biogeochemistry, examine relationships between methanogen community structure and CH4 dynamics in situ, and to review the current generation of CH4 models. We highlight throughout some of the most pressing issues concerning global change and feedbacks on CH4 emissions from natural ecosystems. Major uncertainties in estimating current and future CH4 emissions from natural ecosystems include the following: (i) A number of important controls over CH4 production, consumption, and transport have not been, or are inadequately, incorporated into existing CH4 biogeochemistry models. (ii) Significant errors in regional and global emission estimates are derived from large spatial-scale extrapolations from highly heterogeneous and often poorly mapped wetland complexes. (iii) The limited number of observations of CH4 fluxes and their associated environmental variables loosely constrains the parameterization of process-based biogeochemistry

  14. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular

  15. A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

    2016-01-01

    Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994–2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure. PMID:27874852

  16. Mapping the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emission inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Simon J.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.

    This paper describes the procedures employed to spatially distribute global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere, prepared by Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J.M., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S. [2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.041], and briefly discusses the results of this work. A new spatially distributed global emission inventory for the (nominal) year 2000, and a revised version of the 1995 inventory are presented. Emissions estimates for total mercury and major species groups are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 1×1 and 0.5×0.5°. A key component in the spatial distribution procedure is the use of population distribution as a surrogate parameter to distribute emissions from sources that cannot be accurately geographically located. In this connection, new gridded population datasets were prepared, based on the CEISIN GPW3 datasets (CIESIN, 2004. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 3. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). GPW3 data are available at http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/index.jsp). The spatially distributed emissions inventories and population datasets prepared in the course of this work are available on the Internet at www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions/

  17. NeMO-Net: The Neural Multi-Modal Observation and Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirayath, Ved

    2017-01-01

    In the past decade, coral reefs worldwide have experienced unprecedented stresses due to climate change, ocean acidification, and anthropomorphic pressures, instigating massive bleaching and die-off of these fragile and diverse ecosystems. Furthermore, remote sensing of these shallow marine habitats is hindered by ocean wave distortion, refraction and optical attenuation, leading invariably to data products that are often of low resolution and signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio. However, recent advances in UAV and Fluid Lensing technology have allowed us to capture multispectral 3D imagery of these systems at sub-cm scales from above the water surface, giving us an unprecedented view of their growth and decay. Exploiting the fine-scaled features of these datasets, machine learning methods such as MAP, PCA, and SVM can not only accurately classify the living cover and morphology of these reef systems (below 8 percent error), but are also able to map the spectral space between airborne and satellite imagery, augmenting and improving the classification accuracy of previously low-resolution datasets. We are currently implementing NeMO-Net, the first open-source deep convolutional neural network (CNN) and interactive active learning and training software to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology. NeMO-Net will be built upon the QGIS platform to ingest UAV, airborne and satellite datasets from various sources and sensor capabilities, and through data-fusion determine the coral reef ecosystem makeup globally at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. To achieve this, we will exploit virtual data augmentation, the use of semi-supervised learning, and active learning through a tablet platform allowing for users to manually train uncertain or difficult to classify datasets. The project will make use of Pythons extensive libraries for machine learning, as well as extending integration

  18. International Network of Chronic Kidney Disease cohort studies (iNET-CKD): a global network of chronic kidney disease cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dienemann, Thomas; Fujii, Naohiko; Orlandi, Paula; Nessel, Lisa; Furth, Susan L; Hoy, Wendy E; Matsuo, Seiichi; Mayer, Gert; Methven, Shona; Schaefer, Franz; Schaeffner, Elke S; Solá, Laura; Stengel, Bénédicte; Wanner, Christoph; Zhang, Luxia; Levin, Adeera; Eckardt, Kai-Uwe; Feldman, Harold I

    2016-09-02

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health burden, yet it is still underrepresented within public health agendas in many countries. Studies focusing on the natural history of CKD are challenging to design and conduct, because of the long time-course of disease progression, a wide variation in etiologies, and a large amount of clinical variability among individuals with CKD. With the difference in health-related behaviors, healthcare delivery, genetics, and environmental exposures, this variability is greater across countries than within one locale and may not be captured effectively in a single study. Studies were invited to join the network. Prerequisites for membership included: 1) observational designs with a priori hypotheses and defined study objectives, patient-level information, prospective data acquisition and collection of bio-samples, all focused on predialysis CKD patients; 2) target sample sizes of 1,000 patients for adult cohorts and 300 for pediatric cohorts; and 3) minimum follow-up of three years. Participating studies were surveyed regarding design, data, and biosample resources. Twelve prospective cohort studies and two registries covering 21 countries were included. Participants age ranges from >2 to >70 years at inclusion, CKD severity ranges from stage 2 to stage 5. Patient data and biosamples (not available in the registry studies) are measured yearly or biennially. Many studies included multiple ethnicities; cohort size ranges from 400 to more than 13,000 participants. Studies' areas of emphasis all include but are not limited to renal outcomes, such as progression to ESRD and death. iNET-CKD (International Network of CKD cohort studies) was established, to promote collaborative research, foster exchange of expertise, and create opportunities for research training. Participating studies have many commonalities that will facilitate comparative research; however, we also observed substantial differences. The diversity we observed across

  19. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Alberto; Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

  20. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. PMID:28628676

  1. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto de la Fuente

    Full Text Available This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21. Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

  2. Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Optimal DER Technology Investment and Energy Management in Zero-Net-Energy Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stadler, Michael; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris; Aki, Hirohisa; Lai, Judy

    2009-08-10

    The U.S. Department of Energy has launched the commercial building initiative (CBI) in pursuit of its research goal of achieving zero-net-energy commercial buildings (ZNEB), i.e. ones that produce as much energy as they use. Its objective is to make these buildings marketable by 2025 such that they minimize their energy use through cutting-edge, energy-efficiency technologies and meet their remaining energy needs through on-site renewable energy generation. This paper examines how such buildings may be implemented within the context of a cost- or CO2-minimizing microgrid that is able to adopt and operate various technologies: photovoltaic modules (PV) and other on-site generation, heat exchangers, solar thermal collectors, absorption chillers, and passive/demand-response technologies. A mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that has a multi-criteria objective function is used. The objective is minimization of a weighted average of the building's annual energy costs and CO2 emissions. The MILP's constraints ensure energy balance and capacity limits. In addition, constraining the building's energy consumed to equal its energy exports enables us to explore how energy sales and demand-response measures may enable compliance with the ZNEB objective. Using a commercial test site in northernCalifornia with existing tariff rates and technology data, we find that a ZNEB requires ample PV capacity installed to ensure electricity sales during the day. This is complemented by investment in energy-efficient combined heat and power (CHP) equipment, while occasional demand response shaves energy consumption. A large amount of storage is also adopted, which may be impractical. Nevertheless, it shows the nature of the solutions and costs necessary to achieve a ZNEB. Additionally, the ZNEB approach does not necessary lead to zero-carbon (ZC) buildings as is frequently argued. We also show a multi-objective frontier for the CA example, whichallows us to estimate the

  3. Dust emission: small-scale processes with global consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okin, Gregory S.; Bullard, Joanna E.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Ballantine, John-Andrew C.; Schepanski, Kerstin; Todd, Martin C.; Belnap, Jayne; Baddock, Matthew C.; Gill, Thomas E.; Miller, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored.

  4. EDGAR_v4.3: a global air pollutant emission inventory from 1970 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Guizzardi, D.; Muntean, M.; Schaaf, E.; Olivier, J. G.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.; Dentener, F. J.

    2014-12-01

    The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides consistent gridded anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, precursor gases and aerosols from 1970 to 2010. Since EDGAR's first release in 1996 (EDGARv2), a continuous improvement and upgrade of the emission data resulted in a sequence of releases. Here we present EDGAR_v4.3 (2014), which features new information on emission factors and an extension to 2009-2010 data compared to EDGAR_v4.2. EDGAR_v4.2 was used in many inverse modeling studies in EU, US, Africa and Asia yielding regional refinement of emission factors and adjustments of technology penetration (e.g. coal mining, power plants) and proxy data for geospatial distribution (e.g. passenger car transport). We focus on SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC emissions for the most recent year (2010), and compare them to two global inventories used in global modeling, as well as the regional inventories included in them. HTAP_v2 is a harmonized, global, gridded, emission database for 2010, developed for global and regional model tasks within the Task Force Hemispheric Transport Air pollution. It uses officially reported, gridded national inventories, complemented with science based data, partly gap-filled with EDGAR. However, since HTAP_v2 is relying on (sub-)national statistics, it may not be as consistent across countries and regions, as a globally calculated inventory using international statistics and global geospatial distributions. Another available global inventory is MACCity, covering the years 1980-2010. We compare EDGAR_v4.3 with HTAP_v2 and MACCity in order to explain differences from national estimates and address emission inventory uncertainties, indicating weaknesses and strengths of these databases. We present the geospatial distribution of emissions at 0.1x0.1 degree resolution, comparing the contribution of developing and emerging countries with industrialized regions, both as absolute and per capita data.

  5. An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

    2003-07-01

    The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

  6. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  7. Comparison of global inventories of CO emissions from biomass burning derived from remotely sensed data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Stroppiana

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare five global inventories of monthly CO emissions named VGT, ATSR, MODIS, GFED3 and MOPITT based on remotely sensed active fires and/or burned area products for the year 2003. The objective is to highlight similarities and differences by focusing on the geographical and temporal distribution and on the emissions for three broad land cover classes (forest, savanna/grassland and agriculture. Globally, CO emissions for the year 2003 range between 365 Tg CO (GFED3 and 1422 Tg CO (VGT. Despite the large uncertainty in the total amounts, some common spatial patterns typical of biomass burning can be identified in the boreal forests of Siberia, in agricultural areas of Eastern Europe and Russia and in savanna ecosystems of South America, Africa and Australia. Regionally, the largest difference in terms of total amounts (CV > 100% and seasonality is observed at the northernmost latitudes, especially in North America and Siberia where VGT appears to overestimate the area affected by fires. On the contrary, Africa shows the best agreement both in terms of total annual amounts (CV = 31% and of seasonality despite some overestimation of emissions from forest and agriculture observed in the MODIS inventory. In Africa VGT provides the most reliable seasonality. Looking at the broad land cover types, the range of contribution to the global emissions of CO is 64–74%, 23–32% and 3–4% for forest, savanna/grassland and agriculture, respectively. These results suggest that there is still large uncertainty in global estimates of emissions and it increases if the comparison is carried by out taking into account the temporal (month and spatial (0.5° × 0.5° cell dimensions. Besides the area affected by fires, also vegetation characteristics and conditions at the time of burning should also be accurately parameterized since they can greatly influence the global estimates of CO emissions.

  8. Methane emissions from a freshwater marsh in response to experimentally simulated global warming and nitrogen enrichment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flury, Sabine; McGinnis, Daniel Frank; Gessner, Mark O.

    2010-01-01

    We determined methane (CH4) emissions in a field enclosure experiment in a littoral freshwater marsh under the influence of experimentally simulated warming and enhanced nitrogen deposition. Methane emissions by ebullition from the marsh composed of Phragmites australis were measured with funnel ...... to the atmosphere, even when they occupy only relatively small littoral areas. More detailed investigations are clearly needed to assess whether global warming and nitrogen deposition can have climate feedbacks by altering methane fluxes from these wetlands.  ...

  9. Global change could amplify fire effects on soil greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niboyet, Audrey; Brown, Jamie R; Dijkstra, Paul; Blankinship, Joseph C; Leadley, Paul W; Le Roux, Xavier; Barthes, Laure; Barnard, Romain L; Field, Christopher B; Hungate, Bruce A

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases. We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO(2) concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N(2)O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N(2)O production--nitrification and denitrification--and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N(2)O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO(2) and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N(2)O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO(2) and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots. Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence.

  10. Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Jennifer K; Nagy, R Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Bowman, David M J S; Moritz, Max A; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Williamson, Grant J

    2016-06-05

    Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997-2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  11. Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997–2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Jennifer K.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Moritz, Max A.; Williamson, Grant J.

    2016-01-01

    Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997–2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216509

  12. Global change could amplify fire effects on soil greenhouse gas emissions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrey Niboyet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO(2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N(2O emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N(2O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N(2O production--nitrification and denitrification--and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N(2O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO(2 and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N(2O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO(2 and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence.

  13. Assessing the Global and Arctic Transport of Polychlorinated Biphenyls Under Present and Future Climate and Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, C. L.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We simulate the present and potential future atmospheric transport and fate of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. PCBs are toxic, persistent, and bioaccumulative chemicals whose production and use have been banned internationally. PCBs continue to cycle through the global atmosphere, however, because of their persistence, passive emissions from remaining stocks, and release from natural storage reservoirs such as oceans or soils. In particular, PCBs have been shown to transport long distances in the atmosphere to locations remote from emissions, such as the Arctic, where they can accumulate in wildlife and humans, putting health at risk. Previous studies have suggested that PCBs may be remobilized in a changing climate because higher temperatures will cause greater re-emissions from surface reservoirs. Here, we modify GEOS-Chem to simulate atmospheric PCB transport and investigate the relative effects of predicted climate changes and projected declines in primary emissions, especially on transport to the Arctic. We quantify changes in atmospheric concentrations of two PCBs (CB28 and CB 153) under 2050 climate ("FC"); 2050 emissions ("FE"); and 2050 climate and emissions combined ("FCFE"); relative to a 2000 climate, 2000 emissions control scenario, and determine the major processes affecting these changes. In the version of the model presented here, only soil-atmosphere surface interactions are considered, though future versions will include interaction with other surface media. Our results suggest projected 2050 emissions will play a stronger role than 2050 climate in controlling PCB concentrations of different volatilities. Temperature increases under FC cause increases in emissions of only 4% at most, resulting in negligible concentration changes relative to the FE scenario, in which primary emissions are projected to decline to <0.05% of present-day. Thus, the concentrations in the combined FCFE scenario are

  14. The MetNet vehicle: a lander to deploy environmental stations for local and global investigations of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harri, Ari-Matti; Pichkadze, Konstantin; Zeleny, Lev; Vazquez, Luis; Schmidt, Walter; Alexashkin, Sergey; Korablev, Oleg; Guerrero, Hector; Heilimo, Jyri; Uspensky, Mikhail; Finchenko, Valery; Linkin, Vyacheslav; Arruego, Ignacio; Genzer, Maria; Lipatov, Alexander; Polkko, Jouni; Paton, Mark; Savijärvi, Hannu; Haukka, Harri; Siili, Tero; Khovanskov, Vladimir; Ostesko, Boris; Poroshin, Andrey; Diaz-Michelena, Marina; Siikonen, Timo; Palin, Matti; Vorontsov, Viktor; Polyakov, Alexander; Valero, Francisco; Kemppinen, Osku; Leinonen, Jussi; Romero, Pilar

    2017-02-01

    Investigations of global and related local phenomena on Mars such as atmospheric circulation patterns, boundary layer phenomena, water, dust and climatological cycles and investigations of the planetary interior would benefit from simultaneous, distributed in situ measurements. Practically, such an observation network would require low-mass landers, with a high packing density, so a large number of landers could be delivered to Mars with the minimum number of launchers.The Mars Network Lander (MetNet Lander; MNL), a small semi-hard lander/penetrator design with a payload mass fraction of approximately 17 %, has been developed, tested and prototyped. The MNL features an innovative Entry, Descent and Landing System (EDLS) that is based on inflatable structures. The EDLS is capable of decelerating the lander from interplanetary transfer trajectories down to a surface impact speed of 50-70 m s-1 with a deceleration of design is ≈ 24 kg, with ≈ 4 kg of mass available for the payload.The EDLS is designed to orient the penetrator for a vertical impact. As the payload bay will be embedded in the surface materials, the bay's temperature excursions will be much less than if it were fully exposed on the Martian surface, allowing a reduction in the amount of thermal insulation and savings on mass.The MNL is well suited for delivering meteorological and atmospheric instruments to the Martian surface. The payload concept also enables the use of other environmental instruments. The small size and low mass of a MNL makes it ideally suited for piggy-backing on larger spacecraft. MNLs are designed primarily for use as surface networks but could also be used as pathfinders for high-value landed missions.

  15. The limits of bioenergy for mitigating global life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staples, Mark D.; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2017-01-01

    The size of the global bioenergy resource has been studied extensively; however, the corresponding life-cycle greenhouse gas benefit of bioenergy remains largely unexplored at the global scale. Here we quantify the optimal use of global bioenergy resources to offset fossil fuels in 2050. We find that bioenergy could reduce life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel-derived electricity and heat, and liquid fuels, by a maximum of 4.9-38.7 Gt CO2e, or 9-68%, and that offsetting electricity and heat with bioenergy is on average 1.6-3.9 times more effective for emissions mitigation than offsetting liquid fuels. At the same time, liquid fuels make up 18-49% of the optimal allocation of bioenergy in our results for 2050, indicating that a mix of bioenergy end-uses maximizes life-cycle emissions reductions. Finally, emissions reductions are maximized by limiting deployment of total available primary bioenergy to 29-91% in our analysis, demonstrating that life-cycle emissions are a constraint on the usefulness of bioenergy for mitigating global climate change.

  16. Methane emission from animals: A Global High-Resolution Data Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jean; Matthews, Elaine; Fung, Inez

    1988-06-01

    We present a high-resolution global data base of animal population densities and associated methane emission. Statistics on animal populations from the Food and Agriculture Organization and other sources have been compiled. Animals were distributed using a 1° resolution data base of countries of the world and a 1° resolution data base of land use. The animals included are cattle and dairy cows, water buffalo, sheep, goats, camels, pigs, horses and caribou. Published estimates of methane production from each type of animal have been applied to the animal populations to yield a global distribution of annual methane emission by animals. There is large spatial variability in the distribution of animal populations and their methane emissions. Emission rates greater than 5000 kg CH4 km-2 yr-1 are found in small regions such as Bangladesh, the Benelux countries, parts of northern India, and New Zealand. Of the global annual emission of 75.8 Tg CH4 for 1984, about 55% is concentrated between 25°N and 55°N, a significant contribution to the observed north-south gradient of atmospheric methane concentration. A magnetic tape of the global data bases is available from the authors.

  17. Estimates of Global Rangeland Net Primary Productivity and its Consumption Based on Climate and Livestock Distribution Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; Rafique, R.; West, T. O.; Ogle, S. M.

    2016-12-01

    Rangelands play an important role in providing ecosystem services such as food, forage, and fuels in many parts of the world. The net primary productivity (NPP), a difference between CO2 fixed by plants and CO2 lost to autotrophic respiration, is a good indicator of the productivity of rangeland ecosystems, and their contribution to the cycling of carbon in the Earth system. In this study, we estimated the NPP of global rangelands, the consumption thereof by grazing livestock, and associated uncertainties, to better understand and quantify the contribution of rangelands to land-based carbon storage. We estimated rangeland NPP using mean annual precipitation data from Climate Research Unit (CRU), and a regression model based on global observations (Del Grosso et al., 2008). Spatial distributions of annual livestock consumption of rangeland NPP (Wolf et al., 2015) were combined with gridded annual rangeland NPP for the years 2000 - 2011. The uncertainty analysis of these estimates was conducted using a Monte Carlo approach. The rangeland NPP estimates with associated uncertainties were also compared with the total modeled GPP estimates obtained from vegetation dynamic model simulations. Our results showed that mean above-ground NPP of rangelands is 1017.5 MgC/km2, while mean below-ground NPP is 847.6 MgC/km2. The total rangeland NPP represents a significant portion of the total NPP of the terrestrial ecosystem. The livestock area requirements used to geographically distribute livestock spatially are based on optimal pasturage and are low relative to area requirements on less productive land. Even so, ca. 90% of annual livestock consumption of rangeland NPP were met with no adjustment of livestock distributions. Moreover, the results of this study allowed us to explicitly quantify the temporal and spatial variations of rangeland NPP under different climatic conditions. Uncertainty analysis was helpful in identifying the strength and weakness of the methods used to

  18. Global Health Benefits from Reductions in Background Tropospheric Ozone due to Methane Emission Controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J. J.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.

    2005-05-01

    Increases in background ozone throughout the troposphere are partially attributed to rising anthropogenic methane concentrations, which are projected to continue to increase in the future. Because methane is long-lived and affects background ozone, controls on methane emissions would reduce surface ozone concentrations fairly uniformly around the globe. Epidemiological research indicates that exposure to ozone increases incidence of respiratory ailments and premature mortality. In addition, exposure to ozone reduces agricultural yields and damages natural ecosystems. We use the MOZART-2 global atmospheric chemistry and transport model to estimate the effects on global surface ozone of perturbations in methane emissions. We consider a baseline scenario for 2000 and the 2030 A2 scenario (emissions from the IPCC AR-4 2030 atmospheric chemistry experiments), and examine the impact on ozone of decreasing anthropogenic methane emissions relative to this baseline by 20%. Using the simulated spatially-distributed decreases in surface ozone concentrations resulting from these reductions in methane emissions, we estimate the global benefits to human health in the methane emission reduction scenario. We focus on human mortality, and consider the sensitivity of our estimates to different assumptions of health effect thresholds at low ozone concentrations.

  19. A global catalogue of large SO2 sources and emissions derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fioletov, Vitali E.; McLinden, Chris A.; Krotkov, Nickolay; Li, Can; Joiner, Joanna; Theys, Nicolas; Carn, Simon; Moran, Mike D.

    2016-09-01

    Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor processed with the new principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm were used to detect large point emission sources or clusters of sources. The total of 491 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 30 kt yr-1 to more than 4000 kt yr-1 of SO2 per year have been identified and grouped by country and by primary source origin: volcanoes (76 sources); power plants (297); smelters (53); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (65). The sources were identified using different methods, including through OMI measurements themselves applied to a new emission detection algorithm, and their evolution during the 2005-2014 period was traced by estimating annual emissions from each source. For volcanic sources, the study focused on continuous degassing, and emissions from explosive eruptions were excluded. Emissions from degassing volcanic sources were measured, many for the first time, and collectively they account for about 30 % of total SO2 emissions estimated from OMI measurements, but that fraction has increased in recent years given that cumulative global emissions from power plants and smelters are declining while emissions from oil and gas industry remained nearly constant. Anthropogenic emissions from the USA declined by 80 % over the 2005-2014 period as did emissions from western and central Europe, whereas emissions from India nearly doubled, and emissions from other large SO2-emitting regions (South Africa, Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East) remained fairly constant. In total, OMI-based estimates account for about a half of total reported anthropogenic SO2 emissions; the remaining half is likely related to sources emitting less than 30 kt yr-1 and not detected by OMI.

  20. Increased Ratio of Electron Transport to Net Assimilation Rate Supports Elevated Isoprenoid Emission Rate in Eucalypts under Drought1[W][OPEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dani, Kaidala Ganesha Srikanta; Jamie, Ian McLeod; Prentice, Iain Colin; Atwell, Brian James

    2014-01-01

    Plants undergoing heat and low-CO2 stresses emit large amounts of volatile isoprenoids compared with those in stress-free conditions. One hypothesis posits that the balance between reducing power availability and its use in carbon assimilation determines constitutive isoprenoid emission rates in plants and potentially even their maximum emission capacity under brief periods of stress. To test this, we used abiotic stresses to manipulate the availability of reducing power. Specifically, we examined the effects of mild to severe drought on photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) and net carbon assimilation rate (NAR) and the relationship between estimated energy pools and constitutive volatile isoprenoid emission rates in two species of eucalypts: Eucalyptus occidentalis (drought tolerant) and Eucalyptus camaldulensis (drought sensitive). Isoprenoid emission rates were insensitive to mild drought, and the rates increased when the decline in NAR reached a certain species-specific threshold. ETR was sustained under drought and the ETR-NAR ratio increased, driving constitutive isoprenoid emission until severe drought caused carbon limitation of the methylerythritol phosphate pathway. The estimated residual reducing power unused for carbon assimilation, based on the energetic status model, significantly correlated with constitutive isoprenoid emission rates across gradients of drought (r2 > 0.8) and photorespiratory stress (r2 > 0.9). Carbon availability could critically limit emission rates under severe drought and photorespiratory stresses. Under most instances of moderate abiotic stress levels, increased isoprenoid emission rates compete with photorespiration for the residual reducing power not invested in carbon assimilation. A similar mechanism also explains the individual positive effects of low-CO2, heat, and drought stresses on isoprenoid emission. PMID:25139160

  1. Building and characterizing regional and global emission inventories of toxic pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cucurachi, Stefano; Sala, Serenella; Laurent, Alexis

    2014-01-01

    for chemical emissions, whose toxic impacts on human health and ecosystems cannot be readily determined due to gaps in the available data. Emission data that can be retrieved from publicly available databases are typically restricted to a limited number of toxic substances, for a few countries...... of mercury. The three proxies are compared and their efficacy tested statistically to identify the best performer for specific classes of substances. The potential impacts associated to the emissions in the European and global inventory are further tested by using an impact system adopted for the comparative...

  2. How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisinger, Andy; Clark, Harry

    2018-04-01

    Agriculture directly contributes about 10%-12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO 2 . Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions now and in future, and to CO 2 from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO 2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO 2 livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO 2 emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal. © 2017 John

  3. Modelling global methane emissions from livestock: Biological and nutritional controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald E.

    1992-01-01

    The available observations of methane production from the literature have been compiled into a ruminant methane data base. This data base includes 400 treatment mean observations of methane losses from cattle and sheep, and minor numbers of measurements from other species. Methane loss varied from 2.0 to 11.6 percent of dietary gross energy. Measurements included describe the many different weights and physiological states of the animals fed and diets ranging from all forage to all concentrate diets or mixtures. An auxiliary spreadsheet lists approximately 1000 individual animal observations. Many important concepts have emerged from our query and analysis of this data set. The majority of the world's cattle, sheep, and goats under normal husbandry circumstances likely produce methane very close to 6 percent of their daily diets gross energy (2 percent of the diet by weight). Although individual animals or losses from specific dietary research circumstances can vary considerably, the average for the vast majority of groups of ruminant livestock are likely to fall between 5.5 to 6.5 percent. We must caution, however, that little experimental data is available for two-thirds of the world's ruminants in developing countries. Available evidence suggests similar percentage of emissions, but this supposition needs confirmation. More importantly, data is skimpy or unavailable to describe diet consumption, animal weight, and class distribution.

  4. Halocarbon emissions from the United States and Mexico and their global warming potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millet, Dylan B; Atlas, Elliot L; Blake, Donald R; Blake, Nicola J; Diskin, Glenn S; Holloway, John S; Hudman, Rynda C; Meinardi, Simone; Ryerson, Thomas B; Sachse, Glen W

    2009-02-15

    We use recent aircraft measurements of a comprehensive suite of anthropogenic halocarbons, carbon monoxide (CO), and related tracers to place new constraints on North American halocarbon emissions and quantify their global warming potential. Using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) we find that the ensemble of observations are consistent with our prior best estimate of the U.S. anthropogenic CO source, but suggest a 30% underestimate of Mexican emissions. We develop an optimized CO emission inventory on this basis and quantify halocarbon emissions from their measured enhancements relative to CO. Emissions continue for many compounds restricted under the Montreal Protocol, and we show that halocarbons make up an important fraction of the total greenhouse gas source for both countries: our best estimate is 9% (uncertainty range 6-12%) and 32% (21-52%) of equivalent CO2 emissions for the U.S. and Mexico, respectively, on a 20 year time scale. Performance of bottom-up emission inventories is variable, with underestimates for some compounds and overestimates for others. Ongoing methylchloroform emissions are significant in the U.S. (2.8 Gg/y in 2004-2006), in contrast to bottom-up estimates (< 0.05 Gg), with implications for tropospheric OH calculations. Mexican methylchloroform emissions are minor.

  5. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality: Two global challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Larry E

    2017-07-01

    There are many good reasons to promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other combustion emissions. The air quality in many urban environments is causing many premature deaths because of asthma, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and dementia associated with combustion emissions. The global social cost of air pollution is at least $3 trillion/year; particulates, nitrogen oxides and ozone associated with combustion emissions are very costly pollutants. Better air quality in urban environments is one of the reasons for countries to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are many potential benefits associated with limiting climate change. In the recent past, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and the number of weather and climate disasters with costs over $1 billion has been increasing. The average global temperature set new record highs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the transition to electric vehicles and electricity generation using renewable energy must take place in accord with the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This work reviews progress and identifies some of the health benefits associated with reducing combustion emissions. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 982-988, 2017.

  6. Estimated Global Disease Burden From US Health Care Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckelman, Matthew J; Sherman, Jodi D

    2017-10-26

    To quantify the increased disease burden caused by US health care sector life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 614 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2013. We screened for health damage factors that linked GHG emissions to disease burdens. We selected 5 factors, based on appropriate temporal modeling scales, which reflect a range of possible GHG emissions scenarios. We applied these factors to health care sector emissions. We projected that annual GHG emissions associated with health care in the United States would cause 123 000 to 381 000 disability-adjusted life-years in future health damages, with malnutrition being the largest damage category. Through their contribution to global climate change, GHG emissions will negatively affect public health because of an increased prevalence of extreme weather, flooding, vector-borne disease, and other effects. As the stewards of global health, it is important for health care professionals to recognize the magnitude of GHG emissions associated with health care itself, and the severity of associated health damages. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print October 26, 2017: e1-e3. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2017.303846).

  7. Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation: 1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Avery S Cohn; Aline Mosnier; Petr Havlík; Hugo Valin; Mario Herrero; Erwin Schmid; Michael O'Hare; Michael Obersteiner

    2014-01-01

    ...) emissions by sparing land from deforestation. We use an economic model of global land use to investigate, from 2010 to 2030, the global agricultural outcomes, land use changes, and GHG abatement resulting from two potential Brazilian policies...

  8. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  9. Global Gridded Emission Inventories of Pentabrominated Diphenyl Ether (PeBDE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi-Fan; Tian, Chongguo; Yang, Meng; Jia, Hongliang; Ma, Jianmin; Li, Dacheng

    2010-05-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are flame retardants widely used in many everyday products such as cars, furniture, textiles, and other electronic equipment. The commercial PBDEs have three major technical mixtures: penta-(PeBDE), octa-(OBDE) and decabromodiphenyl ethers (DeBDE). PeBDE is a mixture of several BDE congeners, such as BDE-47, -99, and -100, and has been included as a new member of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) under the 2009 Stockholm Convention. In order to produce gridded emission inventories of PeBDE on a global scale, information of production, consumption, emission, and physiochemical properties of PeBDE have been searched for published papers, government reports, and internet publications. A methodology to estimate the emissions of PeBDE has been developed and global gridded emission inventories of 2 major congener in PeBDE mixture, BDE-47 and -99, on a 1 degree by 1degree latitude/longitude resolution for 2005 have been compiled. Using these emission inventories as input data, the Canadian Model for Environmental Transport of Organochlorine Pesticides (CanMETOP) model was used to simulate the transport of these chemicals and their concentrations in air were calculated for the year of 2005. The modeled air concentration of BDE-47 and -99 were compared with the monitoring air concentrations of these two congeners in the same year obtained from renowned international/national monitoring programs, such as Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS), the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN), and the Chinese POPs Soil and Air Monitoring Program (SAMP), and significant correlations between the modeled results and the monitoring data were found, indicating the high quality of the produced emission inventories of BDE-47 and -99. Keywords: Pentabrominated Diphenyl Ether (PeBDE), Emission Inventories, Global, Model

  10. Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system - Part 2: Impact on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems for the 20th century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Fang; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Levis, Samuel

    2014-03-07

    Fire is the primary terrestrial ecosystem disturbance agent on a global scale. It affects carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems by emitting carbon to atmosphere directly and immediately from biomass burning (i.e., fire direct effect), and by changing net ecosystem productivity and land-use carbon loss in post-fire regions due to biomass burning and fire-induced vegetation mortality (i.e., fire indirect effect). Here, we provide the first quantitative assessment about the impact of fire on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems for the 20th century, and investigate the roles of fire direct and indirect effects. This study is done by quantifying the difference between the 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with NCAR community land model CLM4.5 as the model platform. Results show that fire decreases net carbon gain of the global terrestrial ecosystems by 1.0 Pg C yr-1 average across the 20th century, as a results of fire direct effect (1.9 Pg C yr-1) partly offset by indirect effect (-0.9 Pg C yr-1). Fire generally decreases the average carbon gains of terrestrial ecosystems in post-fire regions, which are significant over tropical savannas and part of forests in North America and the east of Asia. The general decrease of carbon gains in post-fire regions is because fire direct and indirect effects have similar spatial patterns and the former (to decrease carbon gain) is generally stronger. Moreover, the effect of fire on net carbon balance significantly declines prior to ~1970 with trend of 8 Tg C yr-1 due to increasing fire indirect effect and increases afterward with trend of 18 Tg C yr-1 due to increasing fire direct effect.

  11. Weather and Management Effects over Nine Years of Net Ecosystem Direct Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Cropping System in the Red River Valley, Manitoba

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenuta, M.; Amiro, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Variation in weather and crop management practices strongly determines direct greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and N2O) from agricultural crop land. Thus a long-term study was established to relate weather and management variations to direct emissions in the Northern Great Plains of Canada. Continuously emission determinations of CO2 and N2O were established at the Trace Gas Manitoba (TGAS-MAN) Long Term Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Site at Glenlea, Manitoba, using the flux gradient micrometeorlogical technique with a tunable diode laser analyzer. The soil is poorly drained clay in the Red River Valley. The field experiment consisted of four 4-hectare plots planted to corn in 2006 and faba bean in 2007. In 2008, grass-alfalfa forage was introduced to two plots (annual - perennial) and grown until 2011 whereas the other two plots (annual) were planted to annual crops: spring wheat, rapeseed, barley and spring wheat in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. In late September of 2011 the grass-alfalfa forage was killed and in 2012, 2013 and 2014 all four plots were planted with corn, soybean and spring wheat, respectively. Management decisions increased emissions such as fertilizer N addition, and hay, straw and silage crop removal greatly increased emissions while choosing legume grain and perennial crops reduced emissions. Weather variation affecting seasonal and daily soil moisture, length of spring freeze-thaw period, and crop yield served to increase or decrease emissions. The variation in management and weather will be discussed in regards to impact on net emissions over the nine year study and answer if development of greenhouse gas neutral cropping systems is possible.

  12. How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major

  13. How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse

  14. System for assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE), part 1 : model description and inventory results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-01

    In early 2001, the US Federal Aviation Administration embarked on a multi-year effort to develop a new computer model, the System for assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE). Currently at Version 1.5, the basic use of the model has centered on t...

  15. On the Quality of Global Emission Inventories : Approaches, Methodologies, Input Data and Uncertainties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier, Johannes Gerardus Jozef

    2002-01-01

    This thesis deals with methodological and practical aspects of compiling global emission inventories in relation to their use. The first part of the thesis describes quality aspects from the perspective of the user: i.e. definition, determining factors, practical applications and quantitative

  16. Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaiser, J.W.; Heil, A.; Andreae, M.O.; Benedetti, A.; Chubarova, N.; Jones, L.; Morcrette, J.J.; Razinger, M.; Schultz, M.G.; Suttie, M.; Werf, van der G.R.

    2012-01-01

    The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.0) calculates biomass burning emissions by assimilating Fire Radiative Power (FRP) observations from the MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. It corrects for gaps in the observations, which are mostly due to cloud cover, and filters

  17. Towards reconciling national emission inventories for methane with the global budget

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith R. Lassey; Elizabeth A. Scheehle; Dina Kruger [NIWA, Wellington (New Zealand)

    2005-06-15

    The global methane source to the atmosphere from human activities is determined only to within about 20%, and its evolution over recent decades is essentially undetermined. IPCC Assessment Reports adjudge the contemporary global anthropogenic source to be in the range 300-450 Tg year{sup -1} based on a 'bottom-up' inventory that aggregates the best literature-based estimates for identified sources. This source strength is compatible with, but not tightly constrained by, a 'top-down' analysis in which a global source of 495-700 Tg year{sup -1} is inferred from a global sink estimated at 460-660 Tg year{sup -1}. While such an inventory could in principle be compiled from national emission inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, such inventories can be incomplete or based on sparse data. As an approach towards reconciling aggregated national inventories with top-down assessments, the authors apply a simple model of budget evolution that incorporates constraints from carbon isotope information. Our analysis suggests that aggregated inventories probably understate anthropogenic emissions, especially isotopically heavy emissions such as from fossil sources or biomass combustion. This could be due either to emission underestimation from recognized sources or to significant unrecognized sources, both of which should be remedied with ongoing inventory improvement.

  18. Mercury fate and transport in the global atmosphere: emissions, measurements and models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pirrone, Nicola; Mason, Robert P

    2009-01-01

    ... to assess the current state of our knowledge regarding atmospheric mercury emissions and transport, its deposition to and evasion from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and also to evaluate the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic sources to the global atmospheric mercury budget. At the beginning of 2005 the Governing Council of the United Nat...

  19. Global organic carbon emissions from primary sources from 1960 to 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ye; Shen, Huizhong; Chen, Yilin; Zhong, Qirui; Chen, Han; Wang, Rong; Shen, Guofeng; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Tao, Shu

    2015-12-01

    In an attempt to reduce uncertainty, global organic carbon (OC) emissions from a total of 70 sources were compiled at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution for 2007 (PKU-OC-2007) and country scale from 1960 to 2009. The compilation took advantage of a new fuel-consumption data product (PKU-Fuel-2007) and a series of newly published emission factors (EFOC) in developing countries. The estimated OC emissions were 32.9 Tg (24.1-50.6 Tg as interquartile range), of which less than one third was anthropogenic in origin. Uncertainty resulted primarily from variations in EFOC. Asia, Africa, and South America had high emissions mainly because of residential biomass fuel burning or wildfires. Per-person OC emission in rural areas was three times that of urban areas because of the relatively high EFOC of residential solid fuels. Temporal trend of anthropogenic OC emissions depended on rural population, and was influenced primarily by residential crop residue and agricultural waste burning. Both the OC/PM2.5 ratio and emission intensity, defined as quantity of OC emissions per unit of fuel consumption for all sources, of anthropogenic OC followed a decreasing trend, indicating continuous improvement in combustion efficiency and control measures.

  20. Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,

    2015-01-01

    Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

  1. Pre-Exposure Rabies Vaccination among US International Travelers: Findings from the Global TravEpiNet Consortium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Samantha B.; Sotir, Mark J.; Han, Pauline; Blanton, Jesse D.; Rao, Sowmya R.; LaRocque, Regina C.; Ryan, Edward T.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background: People who travel to areas with high rabies endemicity and have animal contact are at increased risk for rabies exposure. We examined characteristics of international travelers queried regarding rabies vaccination during pretravel consultations at Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) practices during 2009–2010. Material and Methods: We performed bivariate and multivariable analyses of data collected from 18 GTEN clinics. Travel destinations were classified by strength level of rabies vaccination recommendation. Results: Of 13,235 travelers, 226 (2%) reported previous rabies vaccination, and 406 (3%) received rabies vaccine at the consultation. Common travel purposes for these 406 travelers were leisure (26%), research/education (17%), and nonmedical service work (14%). Excluding the 226 who were previously vaccinated, 8070 (62%) of 13,009 travelers intended to visit one or more countries with a strong recommendation for rabies vaccination; 1675 (21%) of these 8070 intended to travel for 1 month or more. Among these 1675 travelers, 145 (9%) were vaccinated, 498 (30%) declined vaccination, 832 (50%) had itineraries that clinicians determined did not indicate vaccination, and 200 (12%) remained unvaccinated for other reasons. In both bivariate and multivariate analyses, travelers with trip durations >6 months versus 1–3 months (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=4.9 [95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1, 11.4]) and those traveling for “research/education” or to “provide medical care” (adjusted OR=5.1 [95% CI 1.9, 13.7] and 9.5 [95% CI 2.2, 40.8], respectively), compared with leisure travelers, were more likely to receive rabies vaccination. Conclusions: Few travelers at GTEN clinics received rabies vaccine, although many planned trips 1 month long or more to a strong-recommendation country. Clinicians often determined that vaccine was not indicated, and travelers often declined vaccine when it was offered. The decision to vaccinate should take into account the

  2. Global emission of black carbon from motor vehicles from 1960 to 2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rong; Tao, Shu; Shen, Huizhong; Wang, Xilong; Li, Bengang; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Li, Wei; Liu, Xiaopeng; Huang, Ye; Zhang, Yanyan; Lu, Yan; Ouyang, Huiling

    2012-01-17

    Black carbon (BC) is a key short-lived climate change forcer. Motor vehicles are important sources of BC in the environment. BC emission factors (EF(BC)), defined as BC emitted per mass of fuel consumed, are critical in the development of BC emission inventories for motor vehicles. However, measured EF(BC) for motor vehicles vary in orders of magnitude, which is one of the major sources of uncertainty in the estimation of emissions. In this study, the main factors affecting EF(BC) for motor vehicles were investigated based on 385 measured EF(BC) collected from the literature. It was found that EF(BC) for motor vehicles of a given year in a particular country can be predicted using gross domestic product per capita (GDP(c)), temperature, and the year a country's GDP(c) reached 3000 USD (Y(3000)). GDP(c) represents technical progress in terms of emission control, while Y(3000) suggest the technical transfer from developed to developing countries. For global BC emission calculations, 87 and 64% of the variation can be eliminated for diesel and gasoline vehicles by using this model. In addition to a reduction in uncertainty, the model can be used to develop a global on-road vehicle BC emission inventory with spatial and temporal resolution.

  3. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althor, Glenn; Watson, James E M; Fuller, Richard A

    2016-02-05

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth's atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries' GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.

  4. Developments in greenhouse gas emissions and net energy use in Danish agriculture - How to achieve substantial CO2 reduction?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Tommy; Olesen, Jørgen E; Petersen, Søren O

    2011-01-01

    emissions in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (including carbon sources and sinks, and the impact of energy consumption/bioenergy production) from Danish agriculture in the years 1990–2010. An analysis of possible measures to reduce the GHG emissions indicated that a 50–70% reduction...

  5. Scaling methane emissions in ruminants and global estimates in wild populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Barbería, F J

    2017-02-01

    Methane (CH 4 ) emissions by human activities have more than doubled since the 1700s, and they contribute to global warming. One of the sources of CH 4 is produced by incomplete oxidation of feed in the ruminant's gut. Domestic ruminants produce most of the emissions from animal sources, but emissions by wild ruminants have been poorly estimated. This study (i) scales CH 4 against body mass in 503 experiments in ruminants fed herbage, and assesses the effect of different sources of variation, using published and new data; and (ii) it uses these models to produce global estimates of CH 4 emissions from wild ruminants. The incorporation of phylogeny, diet and technique of measuring in to a model that scales log 10 CH 4 gd -1 against log 10 body mass (kg), reduces the slope, from 1.075 to 0.868, making it not significantly steeper than the scaling coefficient of metabolic requirements to body mass. Scaling models that include dry matter intake (DMI) and dietary fiber indicate that although both increase CH 4 , dietary fiber depresses CH 4 as the levels of DMI increases. Cattle produces more CH 4 per unit of DMI than red deer, sheep or goat, and there are no significant differences between CH 4 produced by red deer and sheep. The average estimates of global emissions from wild ruminants calculated using different models are smaller (1.094-2.687Tgy -1 ) than those presented in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (15Tgyr -1 ). Potential causes to explain such discrepancy are the uncertainty on the world's wild ruminant population size, and the use of methane output from cattle, a high methane producer, as representative methane output of wild ruminants. The main limitation researchers' face in calculating accurate global CH 4 emissions from wild ungulates is a lack of reliable information on their population sizes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Stimulation of N2 O emission by manure application to agricultural soils may largely offset carbon benefits: a global meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Minghua; Zhu, Bo; Wang, Shijie; Zhu, Xinyu; Vereecken, Harry; Brüggemann, Nicolas

    2017-10-01

    Animal manure application as organic fertilizer does not only sustain agricultural productivity and increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, but also affects soil nitrogen cycling and nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions. However, given that the sign and magnitude of manure effects on soil N2 O emissions is uncertain, the net climatic impact of manure application in arable land is unknown. Here, we performed a global meta-analysis using field experimental data published in peer-reviewed journals prior to December 2015. In this meta-analysis, we quantified the responses of N2 O emissions to manure application relative to synthetic N fertilizer application from individual studies and analyzed manure characteristics, experimental duration, climate, and soil properties as explanatory factors. Manure application significantly increased N2 O emissions by an average 32.7% (95% confidence interval: 5.1-58.2%) compared to application of synthetic N fertilizer alone. The significant stimulation of N2 O emissions occurred following cattle and poultry manure applications, subsurface manure application, and raw manure application. Furthermore, the significant stimulatory effects on N2 O emissions were also observed for warm temperate climate, acid soils (pH manure application, respectively. Although manure application increased SOC stocks, our study suggested that the benefit of increasing SOC stocks as GHG sinks could be largely offset by stimulation of soil N2 O emissions and aggravated by CH4 emissions if, particularly for rice paddy soils, the stimulation of CH4 emissions by manure application was taken into account. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM): VOLCANIC AEROSOLS DERIVED FROM EMISSIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Michael J. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Schmidt, Anja [School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; Easter, Richard [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Solomon, Susan [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Kinnison, Douglas E. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Neely, Ryan R. [School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; Marsh, Daniel R. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Conley, Andrew [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Bardeen, Charles G. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Gettelman, Andrew [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA

    2016-03-06

    Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosol properties from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-loss enhancements of recent volcanic activity. Attribution of climate and ozone variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the apparent rate of global average temperature increases, and variable recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. We have developed a climatology of global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014 calculated based on volcanic and non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources. We have complied a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions between 1990 and 2014, and a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in version 5 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, a component of the Community Earth System Model. Our climatology shows remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD climatology represents a significant improvement over satellite-based analyses, which ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD climatology significantly improves on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses 60% of the SAD measured in situ. Our climatology of aerosol properties is publicly available on the Earth System Grid.

  8. Global emissions of refrigerants HCFC-22 and HFC-134a: Unforeseen seasonal contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Bin; Montzka, Stephen A.; Miller, Scot M.; Elkins, James W.; Moore, Fred L.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Miller, Ben R.; Weiss, Ray F.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2014-01-01

    HCFC-22 (CHClF2) and HFC-134a (CH2FCF3) are two major gases currently used worldwide in domestic and commercial refrigeration and air conditioning. HCFC-22 contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion, and both species are potent greenhouse gases. In this work, we study in situ observations of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a taken from research aircraft over the Pacific Ocean in a 3-y span [HIaper-Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) 2009–2011] and combine these data with long-term ground observations from global surface sites [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) networks]. We find the global annual emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a have increased substantially over the past two decades. Emissions of HFC-134a are consistently higher compared with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) inventory since 2000, by 60% more in recent years (2009–2012). Apart from these decadal emission constraints, we also quantify recent seasonal emission patterns showing that summertime emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are two to three times higher than wintertime emissions. This unforeseen large seasonal variation indicates that unaccounted mechanisms controlling refrigerant gas emissions are missing in the existing inventory estimates. Possible mechanisms enhancing refrigerant losses in summer are (i) higher vapor pressure in the sealed compartment of the system at summer high temperatures and (ii) more frequent use and service of refrigerators and air conditioners in summer months. Our results suggest that engineering (e.g., better temperature/vibration-resistant system sealing and new system design of more compact/efficient components) and regulatory (e.g., reinforcing system service regulations) steps to improve containment of these gases from working devices could effectively reduce their release to the atmosphere. PMID:25422438

  9. Fugitive Emissions from the Bakken Shale Illustrate Role of Shale Production in Global Ethane Shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kort, E. A.; Smith, M. L.; Murray, L. T.; Gvakharia, A.; Brandt, A. R.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Sweeney, C.; Travis, K.

    2016-01-01

    Ethane is the second most abundant atmospheric hydrocarbon, exerts a strong influence on tropospheric ozone, and reduces the atmosphere's oxidative capacity. Global observations showed declining ethane abundances from 1984 to 2010, while a regional measurement indicated increasing levels since 2009, with the reason for this subject to speculation. The Bakken shale is an oil and gas-producing formation centered in North Dakota that experienced a rapid increase in production beginning in 2010. We use airborne data collected over the North Dakota portion of the Bakken shale in 2014 to calculate ethane emissions of 0.23 +/- 0.07 (2 sigma) Tg/yr, equivalent to 1-3% of total global sources. Emissions of this magnitude impact air quality via concurrent increases in tropospheric ozone. This recently developed large ethane source from one location illustrates the key role of shale oil and gas production in rising global ethane levels.

  10. Fugitive emissions from the Bakken shale illustrate role of shale production in global ethane shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kort, E. A.; Smith, M. L.; Murray, L. T.; Gvakharia, A.; Brandt, A. R.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Sweeney, C.; Travis, K.

    2016-05-01

    Ethane is the second most abundant atmospheric hydrocarbon, exerts a strong influence on tropospheric ozone, and reduces the atmosphere's oxidative capacity. Global observations showed declining ethane abundances from 1984 to 2010, while a regional measurement indicated increasing levels since 2009, with the reason for this subject to speculation. The Bakken shale is an oil and gas-producing formation centered in North Dakota that experienced a rapid increase in production beginning in 2010. We use airborne data collected over the North Dakota portion of the Bakken shale in 2014 to calculate ethane emissions of 0.23 ± 0.07 (2σ) Tg/yr, equivalent to 1-3% of total global sources. Emissions of this magnitude impact air quality via concurrent increases in tropospheric ozone. This recently developed large ethane source from one location illustrates the key role of shale oil and gas production in rising global ethane levels.

  11. Global isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN, ECMWF analyses and a detailed canopy environment model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Müller

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The global emissions of isoprene are calculated at 0.5° resolution for each year between 1995 and 2006, based on the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2 model (Guenther et al., 2006 and a detailed multi-layer canopy environment model for the calculation of leaf temperature and visible radiation fluxes. The calculation is driven by meteorological fields – air temperature, cloud cover, downward solar irradiance, windspeed, volumetric soil moisture in 4 soil layers – provided by analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. The estimated annual global isoprene emission ranges between 374 Tg (in 1996 and 449 Tg (in 1998 and 2005, for an average of ca. 410 Tg/year over the whole period, i.e. about 30% less than the standard MEGAN estimate (Guenther et al., 2006. This difference is due, to a large extent, to the impact of the soil moisture stress factor, which is found here to decrease the global emissions by more than 20%. In qualitative agreement with past studies, high annual emissions are found to be generally associated with El Niño events. The emission inventory is evaluated against flux measurement campaigns at Harvard forest (Massachussets and Tapajós in Amazonia, showing that the model can capture quite well the short-term variability of emissions, but that it fails to reproduce the observed seasonal variation at the tropical rainforest site, with largely overestimated wet season fluxes. The comparison of the HCHO vertical columns calculated by a chemistry and transport model (CTM with HCHO distributions retrieved from space provides useful insights on tropical isoprene emissions. For example, the relatively low emissions calculated over Western Amazonia (compared to the corresponding estimates in the inventory of Guenther et al., 1995 are validated by the excellent agreement found between the CTM and HCHO data over this region. The parameterized impact of the soil moisture

  12. Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damon Matthews, H.; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-01-01

    The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets’ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. The 22 research articles published represent a fantastic snapshot of the state-or-the-art in this field, covering both the science and policy aspects of cumulative emissions and carbon budget research. In this Review and Synthesis, we summarize the findings published in this focus issue, outline some suggestions for ongoing research needs, and present our assessment of the implications of this research for ongoing efforts to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

  13. Global methane emission estimates for 2000-2012 from CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 v1.0

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsuruta, Aki; Aalto, Tuula; Backman, Leif; Hakkarainen, Janne; Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Krol, Maarten C.; Spahni, Renato; Houweling, Sander; Laine, Marko; Dlugokencky, Ed J.; Gomez-Pelaez, Angel J.; Van Der Schoot, Marcel; Langenfelds, Ray; Ellul, Raymond; Arduini, Jgor; Apadula, Francesco; Gerbig, Christoph; Feist, DIetrich G.; Kivi, Rigel; Yoshida, Yukio; Peters, Wouter

    2017-01-01

    We present a global distribution of surface methane (CH4) emission estimates for 2000-2012 derived using the CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 (CTE-CH4) data assimilation system. In CTE-CH4, anthropogenic and biospheric CH4 emissions are simultaneously estimated based on constraints of global atmospheric in

  14. Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. T. Wilkerson

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The global commercial aircraft fleet in 2006 flew 31.26 million flights, burned 188.20 million metric tons of fuel, and covered 38.68 billion kilometers. This activity emitted substantial amounts of fossil-fuel combustion products within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect atmospheric composition and climate. The emissions products, such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulfur compounds, and particulate matter, are not emitted uniformly over the Earth, so understanding the temporal and spatial distributions is important for modeling aviation's climate impacts. Global commercial aircraft emission data for 2004 and 2006, provided by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, were computed using the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT. Continuous improvement in methodologies, including changes in AEDT's horizontal track methodologies, and an increase in availability of data make some differences between the 2004 and 2006 inventories incomparable. Furthermore, the 2004 inventory contained a significant over-count due to an imperfect data merge and daylight savings error. As a result, the 2006 emissions inventory is considered more representative of actual flight activity. Here, we analyze both 2004 and 2006 emissions, focusing on the latter, and provide corrected totals for 2004. Analysis of 2006 flight data shows that 92.5% of fuel was burned in the Northern Hemisphere, 69.0% between 30N and 60N latitudes, and 74.6% was burned above 7 km. This activity led to 162.25 Tg of carbon from CO2 emitted globally in 2006, more than half over three regions: the United States (25.5%, Europe (14.6, and East Asia (11.1. Despite receiving less than one percent of global emissions, the Arctic receives a uniformly dispersed concentration of emissions with 95.2% released at altitude where they have longer residence time than surface emissions. Finally, 85.2% of all

  15. Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and

  16. Global top-down smoke aerosol emissions estimation using satellite fire radiative power measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, C.; Ellison, L.

    2013-10-01

    Biomass burning occurs seasonally in most vegetated parts of the world, consuming large amounts of biomass fuel, generating intense heat energy, and emitting corresponding amounts of smoke plumes that comprise different species of aerosols and trace gases. Accurate estimates of these emissions are required as model inputs to evaluate and forecast smoke plume transport and impacts on air quality, human health, clouds, weather, radiation, and climate. Emissions estimates have long been based on bottom-up approaches that are not only complex, but also fraught with compounding uncertainties. Fortunately, a series of recent studies have revealed that both the rate of biomass consumption and the rate of emission of aerosol particulate matter (PM) by open biomass burning are directly proportional to the rate of release of fire radiative energy (FRE), which is fire radiative power (FRP) that is measurable from satellite. This direct relationship enables the determination of coefficients of emission (Ce), which can be used to convert FRP or FRE to smoke aerosol emissions in the same manner as emission factors (EFs) are used to convert burned biomass to emissions. We have leveraged this relationship to generate the first global 1° × 1° gridded Ce product for smoke aerosol or total particulate matter (TPM) emissions using coincident measurements of FRP and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. This new Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0 (FEER.v1) Ce product has now been released to the community and can be obtained from http://feer.gsfc.nasa.gov/, along with the corresponding 1-to-1 mapping of their quality assurance (QA) flags that will enable the Ce values to be filtered by quality for use in various applications. The regional averages of Ce values for different ecosystem types were found to be in the ranges of: 16-21 g MJ-1 for savanna and grasslands

  17. Global Top-Down Smoke-Aerosol Emissions Estimation Using Satellite Fire Radiative Power Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, C.; Ellison, L.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions estimates have long been based on bottom-up approaches that are not only complex, but also fraught with compounding uncertainties. We present the development of a global gridded (1 deg ×1 deg) emission coefficients (Ce) product for smoke total particulate matter (TPM) based on a top-down approach using coincident measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. This new Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0 (FEER.v1) Ce product has now been released to the community and can be obtained from http://feer.gsfc. nasa.gov/, along with the corresponding 1-to-1 mapping of their quality assurance (QA) flags that will enable the Ce values to be filtered by quality for use in various applications. The regional averages of Ce values for different ecosystem types were found to be in the ranges of 16-21/gMJ-1 for savanna and grasslands, 15-32/gMJ-1 for tropical forest, 9-12/gMJ-1 for North American boreal forest, and 18- 26/MJ-1 for Russian boreal forest, croplands and natural vegetation. The FEER.v1 Ce product was multiplied by time-integrated FRP data to calculate regional smoke TPM emissions, which were compared with equivalent emissions products from three existing inventories. FEER.v1 showed higher and more reasonable smoke TPM estimates than two other emissions inventories that are based on bottom-up approaches and already reported in the literature to be too low, but portrayed an overall reasonable agreement with another top-down approach. This suggests that top-down approaches may hold better promise and need to be further developed to accelerate the reduction of uncertainty associated with fire emissions estimation in air-quality and climate research and applications. Results of the analysis of FEER.v1 data for 2004-2011 show that 65-85 Tg yr-1 of TPM is emitted globally from open biomass burning, with a

  18. Global atmospheric emissions and transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Evaluation of modeling and transboundary pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2014-05-01

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimated country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1° × 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). MOZART-4 (The Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4) was applied to simulate the global tropospheric transport of Benzo(a)pyrene, one of the high molecular weight carcinogenic PAHs, at a horizontal resolution of 1.875° (longitude) × 1.8947° (latitude). The reaction with OH radical, gas/particle partitioning, wet deposition, dry deposition, and dynamic soil/ocean-air exchange of PAHs were considered. The simulation was validated by observations at both background and non-background sites, including Alert site in Canadian High Arctic, EMEP sites in Europe, and other 254 urban/rural sites reported from literatures. Key factors effecting long-range transport of BaP were addressed, and transboundary pollution was discussed.

  19. MISR Level 3 Global Cloud public Product in netCDF format covering a year V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Level 3 Yearly Component Global Cloud Product is a global summary of the Level 1 and Level 2 cloud parameters of interest averaged over a year and reported on a...

  20. Offsetting global warming-induced elevated greenhouse gas emissions from an arable soil by biochar application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamminger, Chris; Poll, Christian; Marhan, Sven

    2018-01-01

    Global warming will likely enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. Due to its slow decomposability, biochar is widely recognized as effective in long-term soil carbon (C) sequestration and in mitigation of soil GHG emissions. In a long-term soil warming experiment (+2.5 °C, since July 2008) we studied the effect of applying high-temperature Miscanthus biochar (0, 30 t/ha, since August 2013) on GHG emissions and their global warming potential (GWP) during 2 years in a temperate agroecosystem. Crop growth, physical and chemical soil properties, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Rs ), and metabolic quotient (qCO2 ) were investigated to yield further information about single effects of soil warming and biochar as well as on their interactions. Soil warming increased total CO2 emissions by 28% over 2 years. The effect of warming on soil respiration did not level off as has often been observed in less intensively managed ecosystems. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was not affected by warming. Overall, biochar had no effect on most of the measured parameters, suggesting its high degradation stability and its low influence on microbial C cycling even under elevated soil temperatures. In contrast, biochar × warming interactions led to higher total N2 O emissions, possibly due to accelerated N-cycling at elevated soil temperature and to biochar-induced changes in soil properties and environmental conditions. Methane uptake was not affected by soil warming or biochar. The incorporation of biochar-C into soil was estimated to offset warming-induced elevated GHG emissions for 25 years. Our results highlight the suitability of biochar for C sequestration in cultivated temperate agricultural soil under a future elevated temperature. However, the increased N2 O emissions under warming limit the GHG mitigation potential of biochar. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Methane emission from global livestock sector during 1890-2014: Magnitude, trends and spatiotemporal patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangal, Shree R S; Tian, Hanqin; Zhang, Bowen; Pan, Shufen; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia

    2017-10-01

    Human demand for livestock products has increased rapidly during the past few decades largely due to dietary transition and population growth, with significant impact on climate and the environment. The contribution of ruminant livestock to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been investigated extensively at various scales from regional to global, but the long-term trend, regional variation and drivers of methane (CH 4 ) emission remain unclear. In this study, we use Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II guidelines to quantify the evolution of CH 4 emissions from ruminant livestock during 1890-2014. We estimate that total CH 4 emissions in 2014 was 97.1 million tonnes (MT) CH 4 or 2.72 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO 2 -eq (1 MT = 10 12 g, 1 Gt = 10 15 g) from ruminant livestock, which accounted for 47%-54% of all non-CO 2 GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Our estimate shows that CH 4 emissions from the ruminant livestock had increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH 4 or 2.06 Gt CO 2 -eq) since the 1890s. Our results further indicate that livestock sector in drylands had 36% higher emission intensity (CH 4 emissions/km 2 ) compared to that in nondrylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher rate of increase in livestock population and low feed quality. We also find that the contribution of developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America) to the total CH 4 emissions had increased from 51.7% in the 1890s to 72.5% in the 2010s. These changes were driven by increases in livestock numbers (LU units) by up to 121% in developing regions, but decreases in livestock numbers and emission intensity (emission/km 2 ) by up to 47% and 32%, respectively, in developed regions. Our results indicate that future increases in livestock production would likely contribute to higher CH 4 emissions, unless effective strategies to mitigate GHG emissions in livestock system are implemented. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. A 3D Active Learning Application for NeMO-Net, the NASA Neural Multi-Modal Observation and Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bergh, Jarrett; Schutz, Joey; Li, Alan; Chirayath, Ved

    2017-01-01

    NeMO-Net, the NASA neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment, is an open-source deep convolutional neural network and interactive active learning training software aiming to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology as well as mapping of spatial distribution. We present an interactive video game prototype for tablet and mobile devices where users interactively label morphology classifications over mm-scale 3D coral reef imagery captured using fluid lensing to create a dataset that will be used to train NeMO-Nets convolutional neural network. The application currently allows for users to classify preselected regions of coral in the Pacific and will be expanded to include additional regions captured using our NASA FluidCam instrument, presently the highest-resolution remote sensing benthic imaging technology capable of removing ocean wave distortion, as well as lower-resolution airborne remote sensing data from the ongoing NASA CORAL campaign. Active learning applications present a novel methodology for efficiently training large-scale Neural Networks wherein variances in identification can be rapidly mitigated against control data. NeMO-Net periodically checks users input against pre-classified coral imagery to gauge their accuracy and utilize in-game mechanics to provide classification training. Users actively communicate with a server and are requested to classify areas of coral for which other users had conflicting classifications and contribute their input to a larger database for ranking. In partnering with Mission Blue and IUCN, NeMO-Net leverages an international consortium of subject matter experts to classify areas of confusion identified by NeMO-Net and generate additional labels crucial for identifying decision boundary locations in coral reef assessment.

  3. Nine years of global hydrocarbon emissions based on source inversion of OMI formaldehyde observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bauwens

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available As formaldehyde (HCHO is a high-yield product in the oxidation of most volatile organic compounds (VOCs emitted by fires, vegetation, and anthropogenic activities, satellite observations of HCHO are well-suited to inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying VOC sources. The long record of space-based HCHO column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI is used to infer emission flux estimates from pyrogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs on the global scale over 2005–2013. This is realized through the method of source inverse modeling, which consists in the optimization of emissions in a chemistry-transport model (CTM in order to minimize the discrepancy between the observed and modeled HCHO columns. The top–down fluxes are derived in the global CTM IMAGESv2 by an iterative minimization algorithm based on the full adjoint of IMAGESv2, starting from a priori emission estimates provided by the newly released GFED4s (Global Fire Emission Database, version 4s inventory for fires, and by the MEGAN-MOHYCAN inventory for isoprene emissions. The top–down fluxes are compared to two independent inventories for fire (GFAS and FINNv1.5 and isoprene emissions (MEGAN-MACC and GUESS-ES. The inversion indicates a moderate decrease (ca. 20 % in the average annual global fire and isoprene emissions, from 2028 Tg C in the a priori to 1653 Tg C for burned biomass, and from 343 to 272 Tg for isoprene fluxes. Those estimates are acknowledged to depend on the accuracy of formaldehyde data, as well as on the assumed fire emission factors and the oxidation mechanisms leading to HCHO production. Strongly decreased top–down fire fluxes (30–50 % are inferred in the peak fire season in Africa and during years with strong a priori fluxes associated with forest fires in Amazonia (in 2005, 2007, and 2010, bushfires in Australia (in 2006 and 2011, and peat burning in Indonesia (in 2006 and 2009, whereas

  4. Nine years of global hydrocarbon emissions based on source inversion of OMI formaldehyde observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauwens, Maite; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel; van der Werf, Guido R.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Sindelarova, Katerina; Guenther, Alex

    2016-08-01

    As formaldehyde (HCHO) is a high-yield product in the oxidation of most volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by fires, vegetation, and anthropogenic activities, satellite observations of HCHO are well-suited to inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying VOC sources. The long record of space-based HCHO column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is used to infer emission flux estimates from pyrogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) on the global scale over 2005-2013. This is realized through the method of source inverse modeling, which consists in the optimization of emissions in a chemistry-transport model (CTM) in order to minimize the discrepancy between the observed and modeled HCHO columns. The top-down fluxes are derived in the global CTM IMAGESv2 by an iterative minimization algorithm based on the full adjoint of IMAGESv2, starting from a priori emission estimates provided by the newly released GFED4s (Global Fire Emission Database, version 4s) inventory for fires, and by the MEGAN-MOHYCAN inventory for isoprene emissions. The top-down fluxes are compared to two independent inventories for fire (GFAS and FINNv1.5) and isoprene emissions (MEGAN-MACC and GUESS-ES). The inversion indicates a moderate decrease (ca. 20 %) in the average annual global fire and isoprene emissions, from 2028 Tg C in the a priori to 1653 Tg C for burned biomass, and from 343 to 272 Tg for isoprene fluxes. Those estimates are acknowledged to depend on the accuracy of formaldehyde data, as well as on the assumed fire emission factors and the oxidation mechanisms leading to HCHO production. Strongly decreased top-down fire fluxes (30-50 %) are inferred in the peak fire season in Africa and during years with strong a priori fluxes associated with forest fires in Amazonia (in 2005, 2007, and 2010), bushfires in Australia (in 2006 and 2011), and peat burning in Indonesia (in 2006 and 2009), whereas generally increased fluxes

  5. Re-assessment of net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions avoidance after 40 years of photovoltaics development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louwen, Atse; van Sark, Wilfried G. J. H. M.; Faaij, André P. C.; Schropp, Ruud E. I.

    2016-12-01

    Since the 1970s, installed solar photovoltaic capacity has grown tremendously to 230 gigawatt worldwide in 2015, with a growth rate between 1975 and 2015 of 45%. This rapid growth has led to concerns regarding the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of photovoltaics production. We present a review of 40 years of photovoltaics development, analysing the development of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions associated with photovoltaics production. Here we show strong downward trends of environmental impact of photovoltaics production, following the experience curve law. For every doubling of installed photovoltaic capacity, energy use decreases by 13 and 12% and greenhouse gas footprints by 17 and 24%, for poly- and monocrystalline based photovoltaic systems, respectively. As a result, we show a break-even between the cumulative disadvantages and benefits of photovoltaics, for both energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, occurs between 1997 and 2018, depending on photovoltaic performance and model uncertainties.

  6. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  7. Stratospheric cooling and polar ozone loss due to H2 emissions of a global hydrogen economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feck, T.; Grooß, J.-U.; Riese, M.; Vogel, B.

    2009-04-01

    "Green" hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H2) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H2 that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H2 can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H2 burden. Across the tropical tropopause H2 reaches the stratosphere where it is oxidised and forms water vapour (H2O). This causes increased IR-emissions into space and hence a cooling of the stratosphere. Both effects, the increase of stratospheric H2O and the cooling, enhances the potential of chlorine activation on liquid sulfate aerosol and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which increase polar ozone destruction. Hence a global hydrogen economy could provoke polar ozone loss and could lead to a substantial delay of the current projected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Our investigations show that even if 90% of the current global fossil primary energy input could be replaced by hydrogen and approximately 9.5% of the product gas would leak to the atmosphere, the ozone loss would be increased between 15 to 26 Dobson Units (DU) if the stratospheric CFC loading would retain unchanged. A consistency check of the used approximation methods with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) shows that this additional ozone loss can probably be treated as an upper limit. Towards more realistic future H2 leakage rate assumptions (H2-emissions of a hydrogen economy is low compared to the positive climate implications that would evolve from the avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions.

  8. Life cycle inventory analysis of regenerative thermal oxidation of air emissions from oriented strand board facilities in Minnesota - a perspective of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicholson, W.J. [Potlatch Corp., San Francisco, CA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Life cycle inventory analysis has been applied to the prospective operation of regenerative thermal oxidation (RTO) technology at oriented strand board plants at Bemidji (Line 1) and Cook, Minnesota. The net system destruction of VOC`s and carbon monoxide, and at Cook a small quantity of particulate, has a very high environmental price in terms of energy and water use, global warming potential, sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions, solids discharged to water, and solid waste deposited in landfills. The benefit of VOC destruction is identified as minor in terms of ground level ozone at best and possibly slightly detrimental. Recognition of environmental tradeoffs associated with proposed system changes is critical to sound decision-making. There are more conventional ways to address carbon monoxide emissions than combustion in RTO`s. In an environment in which global warming is a concern, fuel supplemental combustion for environmental control does not appear warranted. Consideration of non-combustion approaches to address air emission issues at the two operations is recommended. 1 ref., 5 tabs.

  9. Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linwood Pendleton

    Full Text Available Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'. Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

  10. Estimating Global “Blue Carbon” Emissions from Conversion and Degradation of Vegetated Coastal Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Brian C.; Crooks, Stephen; Jenkins, W. Aaron; Sifleet, Samantha; Craft, Christopher; Fourqurean, James W.; Kauffman, J. Boone; Marbà, Núria; Megonigal, Patrick; Pidgeon, Emily; Herr, Dorothee; Gordon, David; Baldera, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems—marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses—that may be lost with habitat destruction (‘conversion’). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this ‘blue carbon’ can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15–1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3–19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6–42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats. PMID:22962585

  11. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  12. Impact of H{sub 2} emissions of a global hydrogen economy on the stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grooss, Jens-Uwe; Feck, Thomas; Vogel, Baerbel; Riese, Martin [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    ''Green'' hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H{sub 2}) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H{sub 2} that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H{sub 2} can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H{sub 2} burden. The impact of these emissions is investigated. Figure 1 is a sketch that clarifies the path way and impact of hydrogen in the stratosphere. The air follows the Brewer-Dobson circulation in which air enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, ascends then to the upper stratosphere and finally descends in polar latitudes within a typical transport time frame of 4 to 8 years. (orig.)

  13. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) - a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedinmyer, C.; Akagi, S. K.; Yokelson, R. J.; Emmons, L. K.; Al-Saadi, J. A.; Orlando, J. J.; Soja, A. J.

    2010-12-01

    The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1) provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the estimates agree closely with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

  14. Australian net (1950s-1990) soil organic carbon erosion: implications for CO2 emission and land-atmosphere modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The debate remains unresolved about soil erosion substantially offsetting fossil fuel emissions and acting as an important source or sink of CO2. There is little historical land use and management context to this debate, which is central to Australia's recent past of European settlement, agricultura...

  15. Re-assessment of net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions avoidance after 40 years of photovoltaics development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Louwen, Atse|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/375268456; Van Sark, Wilfried G J H M|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074628526; Faaij, André P C; Schropp, Ruud E I|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072502584

    2016-01-01

    Since the 1970s, installed solar photovoltaic capacity has grown tremendously to 230 gigawatt worldwide in 2015, with a growth rate between 1975 and 2015 of 45%. This rapid growth has led to concerns regarding the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of photovoltaics production. We

  16. The response of European and Asian climate to global and regional aerosol emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Laura; Dunstone, Nick; Highwood, Eleanor; Bollasina, Massimo; Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan

    2017-04-01

    Asia has the world's highest anthropogenic aerosol loading and has experienced a dramatic increase in emissions since the 1950s, which has continued in the 21st century, in stark contrast with European (and North American) emissions which started to decrease in the 1970s. We use a set of transient coupled model experiments (HadGEM2-GC2) to explore the regional climate effects of anthropogenic aerosol changes since the 1980s, with a focus on the European and Asian responses. Comparing simulations with globally varying aerosol emissions to an equivalent set with Asian emissions fixed at their 1971-1980 mean over Asia, we identify the contribution of Asian emissions to the total impact. Identifying thermodynamic and dynamic responses to global and regional aerosol changes, we diagnose atmospheric teleconnections and their interactions with local processes, and the mechanisms by which aerosol affects both European and Asian climate. It is found that Asian aerosols led to substantial changes in Asian climate, weakening the summer monsoon, which is a key driver of the observed precipitation changes there in recent decades. Asian emissions are also able to induce planetary-scale teleconnection patterns in both winter and summer. The impact of the regional diabatic heating anomaly propagates remotely by exciting northern hemisphere wave-trains which, enhanced by regional feedbacks, cause changes in near-surface climate over Europe. To examine the robustness of the mechanisms we identify in HadGEM2, we analyse similar sets of experiments from NorESM1-M and GFDL-CM3: models with very different climatologies and representations of aerosol processes.

  17. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John; Hankamer, Ben

    2016-01-01

    The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature 'well below 2°C' and to 'aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international 'pro-growth' strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve 'sustainable development' goals.

  18. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John; Hankamer, Ben

    2016-01-01

    The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals. PMID:26959977

  19. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liam Wagner

    Full Text Available The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015 reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature 'well below 2°C' and to 'aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1 is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP, which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN, energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison. Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international 'pro-growth' strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve 'sustainable development' goals.

  20. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  1. A 3 °C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory cancels benefits of European emission reductions on air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortems-Cheiney, A; Foret, G; Siour, G; Vautard, R; Szopa, S; Dufour, G; Colette, A; Lacressonniere, G; Beekmann, M

    2017-07-25

    Despite the international agreement to reduce global warming to below 2 °C, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted for the COP21 would lead to a global temperature rise of about 3 °C. The relative consequences of such a one-degree additional warming have not yet been investigated for regional air quality. Here we found that a + 3 °C global pollutant emission trajectory with respect to pre-industrial climate (reached along the 2040-2069 period under a RCP8.5 scenario) would significantly increase European ozone levels relative to a 2 °C one (reached along the 2028-2057 period under a RCP4.5 scenario). This increase is particularly high over industrial regions, large urban areas, and over Southern Europe and would annihilate the benefits of emission reduction policies. The regional ozone increase mainly stems from the advection of ozone at Europe's boundaries, themselves due to high global methane concentrations associated with the RCP8.5 emission scenario. These results make regional emission regulation, combined with emissions-reduction policies for global methane, of crucial importance.Current national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions track to a temperature rise of about 3 °C. Here the authors use future projections to show that 3 °C warming under a business as usual scenario would result in large increases in ozone concentrations, off-setting any benefits from mitigation policies.

  2. Global Estimation of Soil Nitrous Oxide Emission Using a Semi-Empirical Model and a Global Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, S.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) flux is one of the major greenhouse gas fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems. N2O is produced as a by-product of the transformations of nitrogen in the soil and is generally released from the soil surface to the atmosphere. The purpose of this study is to provide a data-oriented global estimate of N2O flux from the soil. In this study, a semi-empirical model was developed by modifying a model for soil CO2 flux (Raich et al. 2002). The model consists of the functions of nitrogen, air temperature, and precipitation. The parameters of the functions were determined using a global dataset of N2O emission (Stehfest and Bouwman 2006) through the Bayesian approach. The function of nitrogen is a function of carbon to nitrogen ratio. For agricultural land use, the effect of nitrogen fertilizer was also incorporated in the function of nitrogen. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 5 min and at a monthly time resolution. Preliminary calculation revealed that the total amount of N2O emission was 10 Tg N yr-1. The upland natural land was the major source of N2O emission, followed by the upland agricultural land. Latitudinally, the flux was high at 30°N-40°N and 10°S-10°N. The major contribution to the peak at 30°N-40°N was by the upland agricultural land and that to the peak around the equator was by the upland natural land. The monthly flux showed a clear seasonality, and it was the highest and lowest in August and February, respectively. The global scale seasonality was mainly contributed by the N2O flux from the upland agricultural land in the northern mid-latitude. This study provides data-oriented spatiotemporal distribution of soil N2O flux, and I hope that these data will be used for a benchmark and constraint of process-based modeling.

  3. Estimating global per-capita carbon emissions with VIIRS nighttime lights satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasmin, T.; Desai, A. R.; Pierce, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    With the launch of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite in November 2011, we now have nighttime lights remote sensing capability vastly improved over the predecessor Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), owing to improved spatial and radiometric resolution provided by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day Night Band (DNB) along with technology improvements in data transfer, processing, and storage. This development opens doors for improving novel scientific applications utilizing remotely sensed low-level visible light, for purposes ranging from estimating population to inferring factors relating to economic development. For example, the success of future international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be dependent on mechanisms to monitor remotely for compliance. Here, we discuss implementation and evaluation of the VRCE system (VIIRS Remote Carbon Estimates), developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which provides monthly independent, unbiased estimates of per-capita carbon emissions. Cloud-free global composites of Earth nocturnal lighting are generated from VIIRS DNB at full spatial resolution (750 meter). A population equation is derived from a linear regression of DNB radiance sums at state level to U.S. Census data. CO2 emissions are derived from a linear regression of VIIRS DNB radiance sums to U.S. Department of Energy emission estimates. Regional coefficients for factors such as percentage of energy use from renewable sources are factored in, and together these equations are used to generate per-capita CO2 emission estimates at the country level.

  4. The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B.; Allwood, Julian M.

    2017-05-01

    Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

  5. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  6. An optimal method for the computation of the parameter R s of the net emission coefficient approximation approach for determining the electrical and thermal characteristics of plasma arcs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdo, Youssef; Rohani, Vandad; Fulcheri, Laurent

    2017-11-01

    Large-scale industrial plasma torches and processes use primarily high-current electric arcs. Therefore, their basic design must inevitably account for radiative transfer which becomes the prevailing heat loss mechanism at high currents. This heavily increases the complexity of the governing equations. Many approximate approaches have been proposed. The present work relies on the method of approximate average net emission coefficient (NEC) using the isothermal sphere approximation with a radius R s to solve semi-analytically the Ellenbaas-Heller equation and compares it with exact calculations obtained using an iterative method. To our knowledge no study has provided yet a method to determine the most accurate value of R s . In this paper, we present an optimal method for determining the best value of R s that leads to the best agreement between the approximate and the exact methods. As a result, the complete electric characteristic has been obtained for hydrogen at 1 bar in a detailed case study.

  7. Emissions, fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants to the Arctic in a changing global climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wöhrnschimmel, Henry; MacLeod, Matthew; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2013-03-05

    Climate change is expected to alter patterns of human economic activity and the associated emissions of chemicals, and also to affect the transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Here, we use a global-scale multimedia chemical fate model to analyze and quantify the impact of climate change on emissions and fate of POPs, and their transport to the Arctic. First, climate change effects under the SRES-A2 scenario are illustrated using case-studies for two well-characterized POPs, PCB153, and α-HCH. Then, we model the combined impact of altered emission patterns and climatic conditions on environmental concentrations of potential future-use substances with a broad range of chemical properties. Starting from base-case generic emission scenarios, we postulate changes in emission patterns that may occur in response to climate change: enhanced usage of industrial chemicals in an ice-free Arctic, and intensified application of agrochemicals due to higher crop production and poleward expansion of potential arable land. We find both increases and decreases in concentrations of POP-like chemicals in the Arctic in the climate change scenario compared to the base-case climate. During the phase of ongoing primary emissions, modeled increases in Arctic contamination are up to a factor of 2 in air and water, and are driven mostly by changes in emission patterns. After phase-out, increases are up to a factor of 2 in air and 4 in water, and are mostly attributable to changes in transport and fate of chemicals under the climate change scenario.

  8. Global scale DAYCENT model analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies for cropped soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Ojima, Dennis S.; Parton, William J.; Stehfest, Elke; Heistemann, Maik; DeAngelo, Benjamin; Rose, Steven

    2009-05-01

    Conversion of native vegetation to cropland and intensification of agriculture typically result in increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mainly N 2O and CH 4) and more NO 3 leached below the root zone and into waterways. Agricultural soils are often a source but can also be a sink of CO 2. Regional and larger scale estimates of GHG emissions are usually obtained using IPCC emission factor methodology, which is associated with high uncertainty. To more realistically represent GHG emissions we used the DAYCENT biogeochemical model for non-rice major crop types (corn, wheat, soybean). IPCC methodology estimates N losses from croplands based solely on N inputs. In contrast, DAYCENT accounts for soil class, daily weather, historical vegetation cover, and land management practices such as crop type, fertilizer additions, and cultivation events. Global datasets of weather, soils, native vegetation, and cropping fractions were mapped to a 1.9° × 1.9° resolution. Non-spatial data (e.g., rates and dates of fertilizer applications) were assumed to be identical within crop types across regions. We compared model generated baseline GHG emissions and N losses for irrigated and rainfed cropping with land management alternatives intended to mitigate GHG emissions. Reduced fertilizer resulted in lower N losses, but crop yields were reduced by a similar proportion. Use of nitrification inhibitors and split fertilizer applications both led to increased (~ 6%) crop yields but the inhibitor led to a larger reduction in N losses (~ 10%). No-till cultivation, which led to C storage, combined with nitrification inhibitors, resulted in reduced GHG emissions of ~ 50% and increased crop yields of ~ 7%.

  9. Emissions embodied in global trade have plateaued due to structural changes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Chen; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Li, Shantong; Zhou, Dequn; Zhou, Peng

    2017-09-01

    In the 2000s, the rapid growth of CO2 emitted in the production of exports from developing to developed countries, in which China accounted for the dominant share, led to concerns that climate polices had been undermined by international trade. Arguments on "carbon leakage" and "competitiveness"—which led to the refusal of the U.S. to ratify the Kyoto Protocol—put pressure on developing countries, especially China, to limit their emissions with Border Carbon Adjustments used as one threat. After strong growth in the early 2000s, emissions exported from developing to developed countries plateaued and could have even decreased since 2007. These changes were mainly due to China: In 2002-2007, China's exported emissions grew by 827 MtCO2, amounting to almost all the 892 MtCO2 total increase in emissions exported from developing to developed countries, while in 2007-2012, emissions exported from China decreased by 229 MtCO2, contributing to the total decrease of 172 MtCO2 exported from developing to developed countries. We apply Structural Decomposition Analysis to find that, in addition to the diminishing effects of the global financial crisis, the slowdown and eventual plateau was largely explained by several potentially permanent changes in China: Decline in export volume growth, improvements in CO2 intensity, and changes in production structure and the mix of exported products. We argue that growth in China's exported emissions will not return to the high levels during the 2000s, therefore the arguments for climate polices focused on embodied emissions such as Border Carbon Adjustments are now weakened.

  10. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN: a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wiedinmyer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1 provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC. The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. Uncertainties in the emissions estimates arise from several of the method steps. The use of fire hot spots, assumed area burned, land cover maps, biomass consumption estimates, and emission factors all introduce error into the model estimates. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the global estimates agree reasonably well with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

  11. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN): a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedinmyer, C.; Akagi, S. K.; Yokelson, R. J.; Emmons, L. K.; Al-Saadi, J. A.; Orlando, J. J.; Soja, A. J.

    2011-07-01

    The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1) provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. Uncertainties in the emissions estimates arise from several of the method steps. The use of fire hot spots, assumed area burned, land cover maps, biomass consumption estimates, and emission factors all introduce error into the model estimates. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the global estimates agree reasonably well with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

  12. The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol: simulations for year 2000 emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Righi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry global model with the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications to quantify the impact of transport emissions (land transport, shipping and aviation on the global aerosol. We consider a present-day (2000 scenario according to the CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 emission data set developed in support of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The model takes into account particle mass and number emissions: The latter are derived from mass emissions under different assumptions on the size distribution of particles emitted by the three transport sectors. Additional sensitivity experiments are performed to quantify the effects of the uncertainties behind such assumptions. The model simulations show that the impact of the transport sectors closely matches the emission patterns. Land transport is the most important source of black carbon (BC pollution in the USA, Europe and the Arabian Peninsula, contributing up to 60–70% of the total surface-level BC concentration in these regions. Shipping contributes about 40–60% of the total aerosol sulfate surface-level concentration along the most-traveled routes of the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific oceans, with a significant impact (~ 10–20% along the coastlines. Aviation mostly affects aerosol number, contributing about 30–40% of the particle number concentration in the northern midlatitudes' upper troposphere (7–12 km, although significant effects are also simulated at the ground, due to the emissions from landing and take-off cycles. The transport-induced perturbations to the particle number concentrations are very sensitive to the assumptions on the size distribution of emitted particles, with the largest uncertainties (about one order of magnitude obtained for the land transport sector. The simulated climate impacts, due to

  13. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MYD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  14. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MOD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  15. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MYD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  16. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MOD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  17. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V005

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The level-3 MODIS global Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity 8-day data are composed from the daily 1-kilometer LST product (MOD11A1) and stored on a...

  18. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

    2011-07-01

    As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting

  19. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Anenberg

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5, black carbon (BC is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m−3 (1.8 % and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000–194 000 annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %, followed by South Asia (India; 31 %, however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times

  20. A decade of global volcanic SO2 emissions measured from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carn, S. A.; Fioletov, V. E.; McLinden, C. A.; Li, C.; Krotkov, N. A.

    2017-03-01

    The global flux of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted by passive volcanic degassing is a key parameter that constrains the fluxes of other volcanic gases (including carbon dioxide, CO2) and toxic trace metals (e.g., mercury). It is also a required input for atmospheric chemistry and climate models, since it impacts the tropospheric burden of sulfate aerosol, a major climate-forcing species. Despite its significance, an inventory of passive volcanic degassing is very difficult to produce, due largely to the patchy spatial and temporal coverage of ground-based SO2 measurements. We report here the first volcanic SO2 emissions inventory derived from global, coincident satellite measurements, made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite in 2005-2015. The OMI measurements permit estimation of SO2 emissions from over 90 volcanoes, including new constraints on fluxes from Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Aleutian Islands, the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka. On average over the past decade, the volcanic SO2 sources consistently detected from space have discharged a total of ~63 kt/day SO2 during passive degassing, or ~23 ± 2 Tg/yr. We find that ~30% of the sources show significant decadal trends in SO2 emissions, with positive trends observed at multiple volcanoes in some regions including Vanuatu, southern Japan, Peru and Chile.

  1. Defining the `negative emission' capacity of global agriculture deployed for enhanced rock weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerling, D. J.; Taylor, L.; Banwart, S. A.; Kantzas, E. P.; Lomas, M.; Mueller, C.; Ridgwell, A.; Quegan, S.

    2016-12-01

    Enhanced rock weathering involves application of crushed silicates (e.g. basalt) to the landscape to accelerate their chemical breakdown to release base cations and form bicarbonate that ultimate sequester CO2 in the oceans. Global croplands cover an area of 12 million km2 and might be deployed for long-term removal of anthropogenic CO2 through enhanced rock weathering with a number of co-benefits for food security. This presentation assesses the potential of this strategy to contribute to `negative emissions' as defined by a suite of simulations coupling a detailed model of rock grain weathering by crop root-microbial processes with a managed land dynamic global vegetation model driven by the `business as usual' future climate change scenarios. We calculate potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown over the next century by introducing a strengthened C-sink term into the global carbon cycle model within an intermediate complexity Earth system model. Our simulations indicate agricultural lands deployed in this way constitute a `low tech' biological negative emissions strategy. As part of a wider portfolio of options, this strategy might contribute to limiting future warming to 2oC, subject to economic costs and energy requirements.

  2. Global reverse supply chain design for solid waste recycling under uncertainties and carbon emission constraint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhitao; Elomri, Adel; Pokharel, Shaligram; Zhang, Qin; Ming, X G; Liu, Wenjie

    2017-06-01

    The emergence of concerns over environmental protection, resource conservation as well as the development of logistics operations and manufacturing technology has led several countries to implement formal collection and recycling systems of solid waste. Such recycling system has the benefits of reducing environmental pollution, boosting the economy by creating new jobs, and generating income from trading the recyclable materials. This leads to the formation of a global reverse supply chain (GRSC) of solid waste. In this paper, we investigate the design of such a GRSC with a special emphasis on three aspects; (1) uncertainty of waste collection levels, (2) associated carbon emissions, and (3) challenges posed by the supply chain's global aspect, particularly the maritime transportation costs and currency exchange rates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to integrate the three above-mentioned important aspects in the design of a GRSC. We have used mixed integer-linear programming method along with robust optimization to develop the model which is validated using a sample case study of e-waste management. Our results show that using a robust model by taking the complex interactions characterizing global reverse supply chain networks into account, we can create a better GRSC. The effect of uncertainties and carbon constraints on decisions to reduce costs and emissions are also shown. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MOD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  4. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MYD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  5. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN): a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Wiedinmyer; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; L. K. Emmons; J. A. Al-Saadi; J. J. Orlando; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1) provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include 5 biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data,...

  6. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  7. Systematic framework for carbon dioxide capture and utilization processes to reduce the global carbon dioxide emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frauzem, Rebecca; Plaza, Cristina Calvera; Gani, Rafiqul

    the two approaches that are currently being investigated, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) [1] to address this issue, the later approach is more promising as it reuses captured carbon dioxide, as a fuel, reactant, solvent, and others, to produce valuable products......In the year 2013, 9.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide gas was emitted into the air, and each year this amount is increasing [1]. Carbon dioxide emissions are of particular concern as they represent 80% of greenhouse gas emissions and therefore are a large contributor to global warming. Among....... There is not only a need for technologies for capture and utilization, via conversion, but also there are numerous questions that need to be resolved. For example, which higher value chemicals can be produced, what are their current demands and costs of production, and, how much of the captured carbon dioxide would...

  8. Estimating aerosol emissions by assimilating observed aerosol optical depth in a global aerosol model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Huneeus

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This study estimates the emission fluxes of a range of aerosol species and one aerosol precursor at the global scale. These fluxes are estimated by assimilating daily total and fine mode aerosol optical depth (AOD at 550 nm from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS into a global aerosol model of intermediate complexity. Monthly emissions are fitted homogenously for each species over a set of predefined regions. The performance of the assimilation is evaluated by comparing the AOD after assimilation against the MODIS observations and against independent observations. The system is effective in forcing the model towards the observations, for both total and fine mode AOD. Significant improvements for the root mean square error and correlation coefficient against both the assimilated and independent datasets are observed as well as a significant decrease in the mean bias against the assimilated observations. These improvements are larger over land than over ocean. The impact of the assimilation of fine mode AOD over ocean demonstrates potential for further improvement by including fine mode AOD observations over continents. The Angström exponent is also improved in African, European and dusty stations. The estimated emission flux for black carbon is 15 Tg yr−1, 119 Tg yr−1 for particulate organic matter, 17 Pg yr−1 for sea salt, 83 TgS yr−1 for SO2 and 1383 Tg yr−1 for desert dust. They represent a difference of +45 %, +40 %, +26 %, +13 % and −39 % respectively, with respect to the a priori values. The initial errors attributed to the emission fluxes are reduced for all estimated species.

  9. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd.; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya’u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I.; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

    2015-01-01

    Background Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. Methods/Findings The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. Conclusion An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks—hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper. PMID:26305483

  10. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya'u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

    2015-01-01

    Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  11. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruna Chiroma

    Full Text Available Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research.The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods.An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  12. Governance Mechanism for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Stochastic Differential Game Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Today developed and developing countries have to admit the fact that global warming is affecting the earth, but the fundamental problem of how to divide up necessary greenhouse gas reductions between developed and developing countries remains. In this paper, we propose cooperative and noncooperative stochastic differential game models to describe greenhouse gas emissions decision makings of developed and developing countries, calculate their feedback Nash equilibrium and the Pareto optimal solution, characterize parameter spaces that developed and developing countries can cooperate, design cooperative conditions under which participants buy the cooperative payoff, and distribute the cooperative payoff with Nash bargaining solution. Lastly, numerical simulations are employed to illustrate the above results.

  13. Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  14. Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D

    2014-07-01

    Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, 'urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)' is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Olivier, Jos G. J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Maas, Rob; Dentener, Frank; Selin, Noelle Eckley

    2014-01-01

    The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides a time-series of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived atmospheric pollutants from 1970 to 2008. Mercury is included in EDGARv4.tox1, thereby enriching the spectrum of multi-pollutant sources in the database. With an average annual growth rate of 1.3% since 1970, EDGARv4 estimates that the global mercury emissions reached 1287 tonnes in 2008. Specifically, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) (Hg[superscript 0]...

  16. Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire emissions database (GFED4)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G.R.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the fourth generation of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4) burned area data set, which provides global monthly burned area at 0.25° spatial resolution from mid-1995 through the present and daily burned area for the time series extending back to August 2000. We produced the full

  17. Global lung cancer risk from PAH exposure highly depends on emission sources and individual susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu; Liu, Junfeng; Huang, Ye; Chen, Han; Li, Wei; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Su, Shu; Lin, Nan; Xu, Yinyin; Li, Bengang; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Wenxin

    2014-10-01

    The health impacts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), the most concerning organic pollutants, depend not only on the locations and strengths of emission sources, but also on individual susceptibility. Moreover, trans-boundary transport makes them a global concern. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the global health impacts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in ambient air is presented. Model resolution is critical in exposure modelling. Globally, incremental lifetime lung cancer risk (ILCR) induced by ambient PAH exposure is 3.1 × 10-5. If the individual susceptibility was not taken into consideration, the overall risk would be underestimated by 55% and the proportion of highly vulnerable population would be underestimated by more than 90%. Emphasizing on individual susceptibility, our study provides an instrumental revision of current risk assessment methodology. In terms of lung cancer risk, the most important sources are combustion of biomass fuels (40%) and fossil fuels (14%) in the residential/commercial sector, coke (13%) and aluminium (12%) production, and motor vehicles (9%). PAHs can travel long distance globally especially within the Eurasian continent. Still, the risk is dominantly contributed by local.

  18. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  19. Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dentener

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

  20. Climate change impact of livestock CH4emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Pre-Travel Medical Preparation of Business and Occupational Travelers: An Analysis of the Global TravEpiNet Consortium, 2009 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Nomana M; Jentes, Emily S; Brown, Clive; Han, Pauline; Rao, Sowmya R; Kozarsky, Phyllis; Hagmann, Stefan H F; LaRocque, Regina C; Ryan, Edward T

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the study was to understand more about pre-travel preparations and itineraries of business and occupational travelers. De-identified data from 18 Global TravEpiNet clinics from January 2009 to December 2012 were analyzed. Of 23,534 travelers, 61% were non-occupational and 39% occupational. Business travelers were more likely to be men, had short times to departure and shorter trip durations, and commonly refused influenza, meningococcal, and hepatitis B vaccines. Most business travelers indicated that employers suggested the pre-travel health consultation, whereas non-occupational travelers sought consultations because of travel health concerns. Sub-groups of occupational travelers have characteristic profiles, with business travelers being particularly distinct. Employers play a role in encouraging business travelers to seek pre-travel consultations. Such consultations, even if scheduled immediately before travel, can identify vaccination gaps and increase coverage.

  2. CO2 emission and global warming potential (GWP of energy consumption in paddy field production systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salman Dastan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study was to estimation of greenhouse gases (GHG emissions and global warming in rice production and identify measures to reducing fossil energy use and greenhouse gases emissions. Three rice production systems included SRI, improved and conventional were studied. All activities, field operation and data in production methods and differents inputs rates were monitored and recorded in 2011e2012. Results showed that averages of total energy input in production systems was 22793.02 MJ ha-1 that the least energy input equal 16102.98 MJ ha-1 was observed in SRI. Electricity had the most contribution of energy input in production systems that the greatest global warming and GHGs accounted. Nitrogen fertilizer and fuel were ranked in second and third in GHGs. Average across rice production, GWP were estimated equal to 2307.33 kg CO2-eq ha-1. The maximum and minimum GWP equal to 1640 and 2554 kg CO2-eq ha-1 equivalent to 255.8 and 479.3 kg eq-CO2 GJ-1 were obtained in SRI and conventional systems, respectively. The minimum and maximum GWP per unit energy input was the minimum were in SRI and was the maximum in conventional system. SRI had the least GWP per unit energy output and improved system was ranked in seconed. Therefore, it was concluded that GWP had the positive correlation with field management methods and inputs use.

  3. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

  4. Optimal estimation of regional N2O emissions using a three-dimensional global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Golombek, A.; Prinn, R.

    2004-12-01

    In this study, we use the MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry) model and Kalman filtering techniques to optimally estimate N2O emissions from seven source regions around the globe. The MATCH model was used with NCEP assimilated winds at T62 resolution (192 longitude by 94 latitude surface grid, and 28 vertical levels) from July 1st 1996 to December 31st 2000. The average concentrations of N2O in the lowest four layers of the model were then compared with the monthly mean observations from six national/global networks (AGAGE, CMDL (HATS), CMDL (CCGG), CSIRO, CSIR and NIES), at 48 surface sites. A 12-month-running-mean smoother was applied to both the model results and the observations, due to the fact that the model was not able to reproduce the very small observed seasonal variations. The Kalman filter was then used to solve for the time-averaged regional emissions of N2O for January 1st 1997 to June 30th 2000. The inversions assume that the model stratospheric destruction rates, which lead to a global N2O lifetime of 130 years, are correct. It also assumes normalized emission spatial distributions from each region based on previous studies. We conclude that the global N2O emission flux is about 16.2 TgN/yr, with {34.9±1.7%} from South America and Africa, {34.6±1.5%} from South Asia, {13.9±1.5%} from China/Japan/South East Asia, {8.0±1.9%} from all oceans, {6.4±1.1%} from North America and North and West Asia, {2.6±0.4%} from Europe, and {0.9±0.7%} from New Zealand and Australia. The errors here include the measurement standard deviation, calibration differences among the six groups, grid volume/measurement site mis-match errors estimated from the model, and a procedure to account approximately for the modeling errors.

  5. Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

    2017-01-01

    Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13-0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio.

  6. Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

    2017-01-01

    Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13–0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio. PMID:28045111

  7. Implications of overestimated anthropogenic CO2 emissions on East Asian and global land CO2 flux inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeki, Tazu; Patra, Prabir K.

    2017-12-01

    Measurement and modelling of regional or country-level carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are becoming critical for verification of the greenhouse gases emission control. One of the commonly adopted approaches is inverse modelling, where CO2 fluxes (emission: positive flux, sink: negative flux) from the terrestrial ecosystems are estimated by combining atmospheric CO2 measurements with atmospheric transport models. The inverse models assume anthropogenic emissions are known, and thus the uncertainties in the emissions introduce systematic bias in estimation of the terrestrial (residual) fluxes by inverse modelling. Here we show that the CO2 sink increase, estimated by the inverse model, over East Asia (China, Japan, Korea and Mongolia), by about 0.26 PgC year-1 (1 Pg = 1012 g) during 2001-2010, is likely to be an artifact of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing too quickly in China by 1.41 PgC year-1. Independent results from methane (CH4) inversion suggested about 41% lower rate of East Asian CH4 emission increase during 2002-2012. We apply a scaling factor of 0.59, based on CH4 inversion, to the rate of anthropogenic CO2 emission increase since the anthropogenic emissions of both CO2 and CH4 increase linearly in the emission inventory. We find no systematic increase in land CO2 uptake over East Asia during 1993-2010 or 2000-2009 when scaled anthropogenic CO2 emissions are used, and that there is a need of higher emission increase rate for 2010-2012 compared to those calculated by the inventory methods. High bias in anthropogenic CO2 emissions leads to stronger land sinks in global land-ocean flux partitioning in our inverse model. The corrected anthropogenic CO2 emissions also produce measurable reductions in the rate of global land CO2 sink increase post-2002, leading to a better agreement with the terrestrial biospheric model simulations that include CO2-fertilization and climate effects.

  8. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherubini, F.

    2015-12-01

    Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified

  9. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E; Olivier, Jos G J; Guizzardi, Diego; Maas, Rob; Dentener, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides a time-series of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived atmospheric pollutants from 1970 to 2008. Mercury is included in EDGARv4.tox1, thereby enriching the spectrum of multi-pollutant sources in the database. With an average annual growth rate of 1.3% since 1970, EDGARv4 estimates that the global mercury emissions reached 1,287 tonnes in 2008. Specifically, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) (Hg(0)) accounted for 72% of the global total emissions, while gaseous oxidised mercury (GOM) (Hg(2+)) and particle bound mercury (PBM) (Hg-P) accounted for only 22% and 6%, respectively. The less reactive form, i.e., Hg(0), has a long atmospheric residence time and can be transported long distances from the emission sources. The artisanal and small-scale gold production, accounted for approximately half of the global Hg(0) emissions in 2008 followed by combustion (29%), cement production (12%) and other metal industry (10%). Given the local-scale impacts of mercury, special attention was given to the spatial distribution showing the emission hot-spots on gridded 0.1°×0.1° resolution maps using detailed proxy data. The comprehensive ex-post analysis of the mitigation of mercury emissions by end-of-pipe abatement measures in the power generation sector and technology changes in the chlor-alkali industry over four decades indicates reductions of 46% and 93%, respectively. Combined, the improved technologies and mitigation measures in these sectors accounted for 401.7 tonnes of avoided mercury emissions in 2008. A comparison shows that EDGARv4 anthropogenic emissions are nearly equivalent to the lower estimates of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)'s mercury emissions inventory for 2005 for most sectors. An evaluation of the EDGARv4 global mercury emission inventory, including mercury speciation, was performed using the GEOS-Chem global 3-D mercury model. The model can generally

  10. Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Mosnier, Aline; Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Schmid, Erwin; O’Hare, Michael; Obersteiner, Michael

    2014-01-01

    This study examines whether policies to encourage cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can abate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sparing land from deforestation. We use an economic model of global land use to investigate, from 2010 to 2030, the global agricultural outcomes, land use changes, and GHG abatement resulting from two potential Brazilian policies: a tax on cattle from conventional pasture and a subsidy for cattle from semi-intensive pasture. We find that under either policy, Brazil could achieve considerable sparing of forests and abatement of GHGs, in line with its national policy targets. The land spared, particularly under the tax, is far less than proportional to the productivity increased. However, the tax, despite prompting less adoption of semi-intensive ranching, delivers slightly more forest sparing and GHG abatement than the subsidy. This difference is explained by increased deforestation associated with increased beef consumption under the subsidy and reduced deforestation associated with reduced beef consumption under the tax. Complementary policies to directly limit deforestation could help limit these effects. GHG abatement from either the tax or subsidy appears inexpensive but, over time, the tax would become cheaper than the subsidy. A revenue-neutral combination of the policies could be an element of a sustainable development strategy for Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance agricultural development and forest protection. PMID:24778243

  11. Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Avery S; Mosnier, Aline; Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Schmid, Erwin; O'Hare, Michael; Obersteiner, Michael

    2014-05-20

    This study examines whether policies to encourage cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can abate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sparing land from deforestation. We use an economic model of global land use to investigate, from 2010 to 2030, the global agricultural outcomes, land use changes, and GHG abatement resulting from two potential Brazilian policies: a tax on cattle from conventional pasture and a subsidy for cattle from semi-intensive pasture. We find that under either policy, Brazil could achieve considerable sparing of forests and abatement of GHGs, in line with its national policy targets. The land spared, particularly under the tax, is far less than proportional to the productivity increased. However, the tax, despite prompting less adoption of semi-intensive ranching, delivers slightly more forest sparing and GHG abatement than the subsidy. This difference is explained by increased deforestation associated with increased beef consumption under the subsidy and reduced deforestation associated with reduced beef consumption under the tax. Complementary policies to directly limit deforestation could help limit these effects. GHG abatement from either the tax or subsidy appears inexpensive but, over time, the tax would become cheaper than the subsidy. A revenue-neutral combination of the policies could be an element of a sustainable development strategy for Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance agricultural development and forest protection.

  12. Net Locality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Souza e Silva, Adriana Araujo; Gordon, Eric

    Provides an introduction to the new theory of Net Locality and the profound effect on individuals and societies when everything is located or locatable. Describes net locality as an emerging form of location awareness central to all aspects of digital media, from mobile phones, to Google Maps...... of emerging technologies, from GeoCities to GPS, Wi-Fi, Wiki Me, and Google Android....

  13. Net Neutrality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Savin, Andrej

    2017-01-01

    Repealing “net neutrality” in the US will have no bearing on Internet freedom or security there or anywhere else.......Repealing “net neutrality” in the US will have no bearing on Internet freedom or security there or anywhere else....

  14. Global standardization of the calculation of CO2 emissions along transport chains-gaps, approaches, perspectives of the global alignment process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ehrler, V.; Engel, A. van den; Davydenko, I.; Diekmann, D.; Kiel, J.; Lewis, A.; Seidel, S.

    2015-01-01

    The transport industry, consumers, shippers and political bodies are all pressing for a global standard for the calculation of emissions along supply chains. Comparability of the chains’ efficiency, reduction of energy consumption, transparency of the carbon footprint of products and identification

  15. Methane emissions from global wetlands: An assessment of the uncertainty associated with various wetland extent data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bowen; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Chen, Guangsheng; Pan, Shufen; Anderson, Christopher; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-09-01

    A wide range of estimates on global wetland methane (CH4) fluxes has been reported during the recent two decades. This gives rise to urgent needs to clarify and identify the uncertainty sources, and conclude a reconciled estimate for global CH4 fluxes from wetlands. Most estimates by using bottom-up approach rely on wetland data sets, but these data sets show largely inconsistent in terms of both wetland extent and spatiotemporal distribution. A quantitative assessment of uncertainties associated with these discrepancies among wetland data sets has not been well investigated yet. By comparing the five widely used global wetland data sets (GISS, GLWD, Kaplan, GIEMS and SWAMPS-GLWD), it this study, we found large differences in the wetland extent, ranging from 5.3 to 10.2 million km2, as well as their spatial and temporal distributions among the five data sets. These discrepancies in wetland data sets resulted in large bias in model-estimated global wetland CH4 emissions as simulated by using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). The model simulations indicated that the mean global wetland CH4 emissions during 2000-2007 were 177.2 ± 49.7 Tg CH4 yr-1, based on the five different data sets. The tropical regions contributed the largest portion of estimated CH4 emissions from global wetlands, but also had the largest discrepancy. Among six continents, the largest uncertainty was found in South America. Thus, the improved estimates of wetland extent and CH4 emissions in the tropical regions and South America would be a critical step toward an accurate estimate of global CH4 emissions. This uncertainty analysis also reveals an important need for our scientific community to generate a global scale wetland data set with higher spatial resolution and shorter time interval, by integrating multiple sources of field and satellite data with modeling approaches, for cross-scale extrapolation.

  16. Comparison of ASTER Global Emissivity Database (ASTER-GED) With In-Situ Measurement In Italian Vulcanic Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestri, M.; Musacchio, M.; Buongiorno, M. F.; Amici, S.; Piscini, A.

    2015-12-01

    LP DAAC released the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Database (GED) datasets on April 2, 2014. The database was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California Institute of Technology. The database includes land surface emissivities derived from ASTER data acquired over the contiguous United States, Africa, Arabian Peninsula, Australia, Europe, and China. In this work we compare ground measurements of emissivity acquired by means of Micro-FTIR (Fourier Thermal Infrared spectrometer) instrument with the ASTER emissivity map extract from ASTER-GED and the emissivity obtained by using single ASTER data. Through this analysis we want to investigate differences existing between the ASTER-GED dataset (average from 2000 to 2008 seasoning independent) and fall in-situ emissivity measurement. Moreover the role of different spatial resolution characterizing ASTER and MODIS, 90mt and 1km respectively, by comparing them with in situ measurements. Possible differences can be due also to the different algorithms used for the emissivity estimation, Temperature and Emissivity Separation algorithm for ASTER TIR band( Gillespie et al, 1998) and the classification-based emissivity method (Snyder and al, 1998) for MODIS. In-situ emissivity measurements have been collected during dedicated fields campaign on Mt. Etna vulcano and Solfatara of Pozzuoli. Gillespie, A. R., Matsunaga, T., Rokugawa, S., & Hook, S. J. (1998). Temperature and emissivity separation from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 36, 1113-1125. Snyder, W.C., Wan, Z., Zhang, Y., & Feng, Y.-Z. (1998). Classification-based emissivity for land surface temperature measurement from space. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 19, 2753-2574.

  17. Pathways to Carbon Pollution: The Interactive Effects of Global, Political, and Organizational Factors on Power Plants’ CO2 Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Grant

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is arguably the greatest threat to society as power plants, the single largest human source of heat-trapping pollution, continue to emit massive amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Sociologists have identified several possible structural determinants of electricity-based CO2 emissions, including international trade and global normative regimes, national political–legal systems, and organizational size and age. But because they treat these factors as competing predictors, scholars have yet to examine how they might work together to explain why some power plants emit vastly more pollutants than others. Using a worldwide data set of utility facilities and fuzzy-set methods, we analyze the conjoint effects of global, political, and organizational conditions on fossil-fueled plants' CO2 emissions. Findings reveal that hyperpolluters' emission rates are a function of four distinct causal recipes, which we label coercive, quiescent, expropriative, and inertial configurations, and these same sets of conditions also increase plants' emission levels.

  18. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  19. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  20. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO(2) emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, L A Barreto de

    2010-03-01

    Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  1. An analytical inversion method for determining regional and global emissions of greenhouse gases: Sensitivity studies and application to halocarbons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stohl

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available A new analytical inversion method has been developed to determine the regional and global emissions of long-lived atmospheric trace gases. It exploits in situ measurement data from three global networks and builds on backward simulations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The emission information is extracted from the observed concentration increases over a baseline that is itself objectively determined by the inversion algorithm. The method was applied to two hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a, HFC-152a and a hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC-22 for the period January 2005 until March 2007. Detailed sensitivity studies with synthetic as well as with real measurement data were done to quantify the influence on the results of the a priori emissions and their uncertainties as well as of the observation and model errors. It was found that the global a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a, HFC-152a and HCFC-22 all increased from 2005 to 2006. Large increases (21%, 16%, 18%, respectively from 2005 to 2006 were found for China, whereas the emission changes in North America (−9%, 23%, 17%, respectively and Europe (11%, 11%, −4%, respectively were mostly smaller and less systematic. For Europe, the a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a and HFC-152a were slightly higher than the a priori emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. For HCFC-22, the a posteriori emissions for Europe were substantially (by almost a factor 2 higher than the a priori emissions used, which were based on HCFC consumption data reported to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP. Combined with the reported strongly decreasing HCFC consumption in Europe, this suggests a substantial time lag between the reported time of the HCFC-22 consumption and the actual time of the HCFC-22 emission. Conversely, in China where HCFC consumption is increasing rapidly according to the UNEP data, the a posteriori emissions are only about 40% of the a

  2. Future energy consumption and emissions in East-, Central- and West-China: Insights from soft-linking two global models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dai, Hancheng; Mischke, Peggy

    2014-01-01

    China's role in the global economy and energy markets is expanding, however many uncertainties with regards to the country's future energy consumption and emissions remain. Large regional disparities between China's provinces exist. Scenario analysis for different sub-regions of China......-linking affects the China-specific reference scenario results in the CGE model considerably. Energy consumption and emissions are decreasing in China until 2050 while regional differences within China remain high....... will be useful for an improved understanding of China's potential future development and associated global impacts. This study soft-links a global dynamic CGE model and a global technology-rich energy system model. Both models are expanded to include East-, Central-, and West-China. This study shows that soft...

  3. Ocean N2O Emissions : Recent Global Estimates and Anthropogenically Influenced Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suntharalingam, P.; Buithenuis, E.; Andrews, O.; Le Quere, C.

    2016-12-01

    Oceanic N2O is produced by microbial activity during organic matter cycling in the subsurface ocean; its production mechanisms display sensitivity to ambient oxygen level. In the oxic ocean, N2O is produced as a byproduct during the oxidation of ammonia to nitrate, mediated by ammonia oxidizing bacteria and archea. N2O is also produced and consumed in sub-oxic and anoxic waters through the action of marine denitrifiers during the multi-step reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen. The oceanic N2O distribution therefore displays significant heterogeneity with background levels of 10-20 nmol/l in the well-oxygenated ocean basins, high concentrations (> 40 nmol/l) in hypoxic waters, and N2O depletion in the core of ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Oceanic N2O emissions are estimated to account for up to a third of the pre-industrial N2O fluxes to the atmosphere, however the natural cycle of ocean N2O has been perturbed in recent decades by inputs of anthropogenically derived nutrient, and by the impacts of climate change. Anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (e.g., NOx and NHy from fossil fuel combustion and agricultural fertilizer) enter the ocean via atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, influencing oceanic N2O production via their impact on the marine organic matter cycle. In addition, climate variations associated with surface ocean warming affect oceanic circulation and nutrient transport pathways, influencing marine productivity and the ventilation of oxygen minimum zones. Recent studies have suggested that possible expansion of oceanic OMZs in a warming climate could lead to significant changes in N2O production and fluxes from these regions. We will summarise the current state of knowledge on the ocean N2O budget and net flux to the atmosphere. Recently reported estimates have been based on (i) empirical relationships derived from ocean tracer data (e.g., involving excess N2O and Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) correlations), (ii) ocean biogeochemical

  4. Challenges and Conundrums in Modeling Global Methane Emissions from Wetlands: An Empiricist's Viewpoint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridgham, S. D.

    2015-12-01

    Wetlands emit a third to half of the global CH4 flux and have the largest uncertainty of any emission source. Moreover, wetlands have provided an important radiative feedback to climate in the geologic and recent past. A number of largescale wetland CH4 models have been developed recently, but intermodel comparisons show wide discrepancies in their predictions. I present an empiricist's overview of the current limitations and challenges of more accurately modeling wetland CH4 emissions. One of the largest limitations is simply the poor knowledge of wetland area, with estimated global values varying by a more than a factor of three. The areas of seasonal and tropical wetlands are particularly poorly constrained. There are also few wetlands with complete, multi-year datasets for all of the input variables for many models, and this lack of data is particularly alarming in tropical wetlands given that they are arguably the single largest natural or anthropogenic global CH4 source. Almost all largescale CH4 models have little biogeochemical mechanistic detail and treat anaerobic carbon cycling in a highly simplified manner. The CH4:CO2 ratio in anaerobic carbon mineralization is a central parameter in many models, but is at most set at a few values with no mechanistic underpinning. However, empirical data show that this ratio varies by five orders of magnitude in different wetlands, and tropical wetlands appear to be particularly methanogenic, all for reasons that are very poorly understood. The predominance of the acetoclastic pathway of methanogenesis appears to be related to total CH4 production, but different methanogenesis pathways are generally not incorporated into models. Other important anaerobic processes such as humic substances acting as terminal electron acceptors, fermentation, homoacetogenesis, and anaerobic CH4 oxidation are also not included in most models despite evidence of their importance in empirical studies. Moreover, there has been an explosion

  5. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sicard

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ground-level ozone (O3 on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5. To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  6. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, Pierre; Anav, Alessandro; De Marco, Alessandra; Paoletti, Elena

    2017-10-01

    The impact of ground-level ozone (O3) on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4-5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2-10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  7. Net Energy, CO2 Emission and Land-Based Cost-Benefit Analyses of Jatropha Biodiesel: A Case Study of the Panzhihua Region of Sichuan Province in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Bioenergy is currently regarded as a renewable energy source with a high growth potential. Forest-based biodiesel, with the significant advantage of not competing with grain production on cultivated land, has been considered as a promising substitute for diesel fuel by many countries, including China. Consequently, extracting biodiesel from Jatropha curcas has become a growing industry. However, many key issues related to the development of this industry are still not fully resolved and the prospects for this industry are complicated. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the net energy, CO2 emission, and cost efficiency of Jatropha biodiesel as a substitute fuel in China to help resolve some of the key issues by studying data from this region of China that is well suited to growing Jatropha. Our results show that: (1 Jatropha biodiesel is preferable for global warming mitigation over diesel fuel in terms of the carbon sink during Jatropha tree growth. (2 The net energy yield of Jatropha biodiesel is much lower than that of fossil fuel, induced by the high energy consumption during Jatropha plantation establishment and the conversion from seed oil to diesel fuel step. Therefore, the energy efficiencies of the production of Jatropha and its conversion to biodiesel need to be improved. (3 Due to current low profit and high risk in the study area, farmers have little incentive to continue or increase Jatropha production. (4 It is necessary to provide more subsidies and preferential policies for Jatropha plantations if this industry is to grow. It is also necessary for local government to set realistic objectives and make rational plans to choose proper sites for Jatropha biodiesel development and the work reported here should assist that effort. Future research focused on breading high-yield varieties, development of efficient field

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential of traditional and diversified tropical rice rotation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Sebastian; Janz, Baldur; Jörg, Lena; Kraus, David; Racela, Heathcliff S U; Wassmann, Reiner; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Kiese, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Global rice agriculture will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, while at the same time changes in demand (e.g. changes in diets or increasing demand for biofuels) will feed back on agricultural practices. These factors are changing traditional cropping patterns from double-rice cropping to the introduction of upland crops in the dry season. For a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, we measured methane (CH4 )/nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and agronomic parameters over 2.5 years in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) in upland cultivation. Introduction of upland crops in the dry season reduced irrigation water use and CH4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Moreover, for practices including upland crops, CH4 emissions in the subsequent wet season with paddy rice were reduced by 54-60%. Although annual N2 O emissions increased two- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction in CH4 led to a significantly lower (P < 0.05) annual GWP (CH4  + N2 O) as compared to the traditional double-rice cropping system. Measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents before and 3 years after the introduction of upland crop rotations indicated a SOC loss for the R-M system, while for the other systems SOC stocks were unaffected. This trend for R-M systems needs to be followed as it has significant consequences not only for the GWP balance but also with regard to soil fertility. Economic assessment showed a similar gross profit span for R-M and R-R, while gross profits for R-A were reduced as a consequence of lower productivity. Nevertheless, regarding a future increase in water scarcity, it can be expected that mixed lowland-upland systems will expand in SE Asia as water requirements were cut by more than half in both rotation systems with upland crops. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. A very high-resolution (1 km?1 km) global fossil fuel CO2 emission inventory derived using a point source database and satellite observations of nighttime lights

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    T. Oda; S. Maksyutov

    2011-01-01

    .... We developed a global 1 km×1 km annual fossil fuel CO 2 emission inventory for the years 1980-2007 by combining a worldwide point source database and satellite observations of the global nightlight distribution...

  10. Speciation of anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds: a global gridded data set for 1970-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ganlin; Brook, Rosie; Crippa, Monica; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Schieberle, Christian; Dore, Chris; Guizzardi, Diego; Muntean, Marilena; Schaaf, Edwin; Friedrich, Rainer

    2017-06-01

    Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) include a large number of chemical species which differ significantly in their chemical characteristics and thus in their impacts on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. It is important that chemical transport models (CTMs) simulate the chemical transformation of the different NMVOC species in the troposphere consistently. In most emission inventories, however, only total NMVOC emissions are reported, which need to be decomposed into classes to fit the requirements of CTMs. For instance, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides spatially resolved global anthropogenic emissions of total NMVOCs. In this study the EDGAR NMVOC inventory was revised and extended in time and in sectors. Moreover the new version of NMVOC emission data in the EDGAR database were disaggregated on a detailed sector resolution to individual species or species groups, thus enhancing the usability of the NMVOC emission data by the modelling community. Region- and source-specific speciation profiles of NMVOC species or species groups are compiled and mapped to EDGAR processes (detailed resolution of sectors), with corresponding quality codes specifying the quality of the mapping. Individual NMVOC species in different profiles are aggregated to 25 species groups, in line with the common classification of the Global Emissions Initiative (GEIA). Global annual grid maps with a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° for the period 1970-2012 are produced by sector and species. Furthermore, trends in NMVOC composition are analysed, taking road transport and residential sources in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) as examples.

  11. Speciation of anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds: a global gridded data set for 1970–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Huang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs include a large number of chemical species which differ significantly in their chemical characteristics and thus in their impacts on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. It is important that chemical transport models (CTMs simulate the chemical transformation of the different NMVOC species in the troposphere consistently. In most emission inventories, however, only total NMVOC emissions are reported, which need to be decomposed into classes to fit the requirements of CTMs. For instance, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR provides spatially resolved global anthropogenic emissions of total NMVOCs. In this study the EDGAR NMVOC inventory was revised and extended in time and in sectors. Moreover the new version of NMVOC emission data in the EDGAR database were disaggregated on a detailed sector resolution to individual species or species groups, thus enhancing the usability of the NMVOC emission data by the modelling community. Region- and source-specific speciation profiles of NMVOC species or species groups are compiled and mapped to EDGAR processes (detailed resolution of sectors, with corresponding quality codes specifying the quality of the mapping. Individual NMVOC species in different profiles are aggregated to 25 species groups, in line with the common classification of the Global Emissions Initiative (GEIA. Global annual grid maps with a resolution of 0.1°  ×  0.1° for the period 1970–2012 are produced by sector and species. Furthermore, trends in NMVOC composition are analysed, taking road transport and residential sources in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK as examples.

  12. Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliseev, Alexey V.; Chernokulsky, Alexandr V.; Karpenko, Andrey A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2010-07-01

    An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860-2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50° N and 70° N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000-2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4-14 TgS/year (2-7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air

  13. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  14. Travel Characteristics and Yellow Fever Vaccine Usage Among US Global TravEpiNet Travelers Visiting Countries with Risk of Yellow Fever Virus Transmission, 2009–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jentes, Emily S.; Han, Pauline; Gershman, Mark D.; Rao, Sowmya R.; LaRocque, Regina C.; Staples, J. Erin; Ryan, Edward T.

    2013-01-01

    Yellow fever (YF) vaccine-associated serious adverse events and changing YF epidemiology have challenged healthcare providers to vaccinate only travelers whose risk of YF during travel is greater than their risk of adverse events. We describe the travel characteristics and YF vaccine use among US travelers visiting Global TravEpiNet clinics from January of 2009 to March of 2011. Of 16,660 travelers, 5,588 (34%) had itineraries to areas with risk of YF virus transmission. Of those travelers visiting one country with YF risk (N = 4,517), 71% were vaccinated at the visit, and 20% were presumed to be immune from prior vaccination. However, travelers visiting friends and relatives (odds ratio [OR] = 2.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.27–5.22) or going to Nigeria (OR = 3.01, 95% CI = 1.37–6.62) were significantly more likely to decline vaccination. To optimize YF vaccine use, clinicians should discuss an individual's risk–benefit assessment of vaccination and close knowledge gaps regarding vaccine use among at-risk populations. PMID:23458961

  15. Travel characteristics and yellow fever vaccine usage among US Global TravEpiNet travelers visiting countries with risk of yellow fever virus transmission, 2009-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jentes, Emily S; Han, Pauline; Gershman, Mark D; Rao, Sowmya R; LaRocque, Regina C; Staples, J Erin; Ryan, Edward T

    2013-05-01

    Yellow fever (YF) vaccine-associated serious adverse events and changing YF epidemiology have challenged healthcare providers to vaccinate only travelers whose risk of YF during travel is greater than their risk of adverse events. We describe the travel characteristics and YF vaccine use among US travelers visiting Global TravEpiNet clinics from January of 2009 to March of 2011. Of 16,660 travelers, 5,588 (34%) had itineraries to areas with risk of YF virus transmission. Of those travelers visiting one country with YF risk (N = 4,517), 71% were vaccinated at the visit, and 20% were presumed to be immune from prior vaccination. However, travelers visiting friends and relatives (odds ratio [OR] = 2.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.27-5.22) or going to Nigeria (OR = 3.01, 95% CI = 1.37-6.62) were significantly more likely to decline vaccination. To optimize YF vaccine use, clinicians should discuss an individual's risk-benefit assessment of vaccination and close knowledge gaps regarding vaccine use among at-risk populations.

  16. Photosynthesis-dependent Isoprene Emission from Leaf to Planet in a Global Carbon-chemistry-climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zeng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Alienov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the FarquharBallBerry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50 of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 6496) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr1 that increases by 30 in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55 for potential natural vegetation.

  17. Recent trends in global greenhouse gas emissions: regional trends 1970-2000 and spatial distribution of key sources in 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Aardenne, van J.A.; Dentener, F.; Pagliari, V.; Ganzeveld, L.N.; Peters, J.A.H.W.

    2005-01-01

    In 2004, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) and the Max Plank Institute for Chemistry (MPIC) started a project to create fast (bi-)annual updates of the EDGAR global emission inventory system, based on the more detailed

  18. Global biogenic volatile organic compound emissions in the ORCHIDEE and MEGAN models and sensitivity to key parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Messina

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A new version of the biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs emission scheme has been developed in the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic EcosystEm, which includes an extended list of biogenic emitted compounds, updated emission factors (EFs, a dependency on light for almost all compounds and a multi-layer radiation scheme. Over the 2000–2009 period, using this model, we estimate mean global emissions of 465 Tg C yr−1 for isoprene, 107.5 Tg C yr−1 for monoterpenes, 38 Tg C yr−1 for methanol, 25 Tg C yr−1 for acetone and 24 Tg C yr−1 for sesquiterpenes. The model results are compared to state-of-the-art emission budgets, showing that the ORCHIDEE emissions are within the range of published estimates. ORCHIDEE BVOC emissions are compared to the estimates of the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN, which is largely used throughout the biogenic emissions and atmospheric chemistry community. Our results show that global emission budgets of the two models are, in general, in good agreement. ORCHIDEE emissions are 8 % higher for isoprene, 8 % lower for methanol, 17 % higher for acetone, 18 % higher for monoterpenes and 39 % higher for sesquiterpenes, compared to the MEGAN estimates. At the regional scale, the largest differences between ORCHIDEE and MEGAN are highlighted for isoprene in northern temperate regions, where ORCHIDEE emissions are higher by 21 Tg C yr−1, and for monoterpenes, where they are higher by 4.4 and 10.2 Tg C yr−1 in northern and southern tropical regions compared to MEGAN. The geographical differences between the two models are mainly associated with different EF and plant functional type (PFT distributions, while differences in the seasonal cycle are mostly driven by differences in the leaf area index (LAI. Sensitivity tests are carried out for both models to explore the response to key

  19. North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.W. King; R.J. Andres; K J. Davis; M. Hafer; D.J. Hayes; D.N. Huntzinger; B. de Jong; W.A. Kurz; A.D. McGuire; R. Vargas; Y. Wei; T.O. West; C.W. Woodall

    2015-01-01

    Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net...

  20. An estimation of the global emission of methyl bromide from rapeseed ( Brassica napus) from 1961 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, M. Iqbal; White, Iain R.; Nickless, Graham; Wang, Kuo-Ying; Shallcross, Dudley E.

    Gan et al. [Gan, J., Yates, S.R., Ohr, H.D., Sims, J.J., 1998. Production of methyl bromide by terrestrial higher plants. Geophysical Research Letters 25 (19), 3595-3598] have reported that plants of the family Brassicaceae take up bromide from soils and subsequently release methyl bromide (CH 3Br) to the atmosphere deriving a significant emission from this source of about 7 Gg(10 9 g) yr -1. In this study, we determine a yearly global emission rate for CH 3Br from one such species, rapeseed, from 1961 to 2003 using data on crop harvest index and growth rate in conjunction with global production data. This study suggests that CH 3Br emissions from rapeseed have increased 10-fold from 1961 to 2003 and by a factor of 3-4 since 1980. It also suggests that the geographical distribution of emissions has also changed substantially in the last 40 yr. The annual emission of CH 3Br from mustard and cabbage is also estimated; whilst relative levels emitted from these species are less significant, as these crops are continually exploited for new applications CH 3Br emissions are set to increase.

  1. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C

    2014-09-23

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

  2. Explaining global surface aerosol number concentrations in terms of primary emissions and particle formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Spracklen

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We synthesised observations of total particle number (CN concentration from 36 sites around the world. We found that annual mean CN concentrations are typically 300–2000 cm−3 in the marine boundary layer and free troposphere (FT and 1000–10 000 cm−3 in the continental boundary layer (BL. Many sites exhibit pronounced seasonality with summer time concentrations a factor of 2–10 greater than wintertime concentrations. We used these CN observations to evaluate primary and secondary sources of particle number in a global aerosol microphysics model. We found that emissions of primary particles can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of observed CN concentration (R2=0.46 but fail to explain the observed seasonal cycle (R2=0.1. The modeled CN concentration in the FT was biased low (normalised mean bias, NMB=−88% unless a secondary source of particles was included, for example from binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (NMB=−25%. Simulated CN concentrations in the continental BL were also biased low (NMB=−74% unless the number emission of anthropogenic primary particles was increased or a mechanism that results in particle formation in the BL was included. We ran a number of simulations where we included an empirical BL nucleation mechanism either using the activation-type mechanism (nucleation rate, J, proportional to gas-phase sulfuric acid concentration to the power one or kinetic-type mechanism (J proportional to sulfuric acid to the power two with a range of nucleation coefficients. We found that the seasonal CN cycle observed at continental BL sites was better simulated by BL particle formation (R2=0.3 than by increasing the number emission from primary anthropogenic sources (R2=0.18. The nucleation constants that resulted in best overall match between model and observed CN concentrations were

  3. Analysis of particulate emissions from tropical biomass burning using a global aerosol model and long-term surface observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Reddington

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We use the GLOMAP global aerosol model evaluated against observations of surface particulate matter (PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth (AOD to better understand the impacts of biomass burning on tropical aerosol over the period 2003 to 2011. Previous studies report a large underestimation of AOD over regions impacted by tropical biomass burning, scaling particulate emissions from fire by up to a factor of 6 to enable the models to simulate observed AOD. To explore the uncertainty in emissions we use three satellite-derived fire emission datasets (GFED3, GFAS1 and FINN1. In these datasets the tropics account for 66–84 % of global particulate emissions from fire. With all emission datasets GLOMAP underestimates dry season PM2.5 concentrations in regions of high fire activity in South America and underestimates AOD over South America, Africa and Southeast Asia. When we assume an upper estimate of aerosol hygroscopicity, underestimation of AOD over tropical regions impacted by biomass burning is reduced relative to previous studies. Where coincident observations of surface PM2.5 and AOD are available we find a greater model underestimation of AOD than PM2.5, even when we assume an upper estimate of aerosol hygroscopicity. Increasing particulate emissions to improve simulation of AOD can therefore lead to overestimation of surface PM2.5 concentrations. We find that scaling FINN1 emissions by a factor of 1.5 prevents underestimation of AOD and surface PM2.5 in most tropical locations except Africa. GFAS1 requires emission scaling factor of 3.4 in most locations with the exception of equatorial Asia where a scaling factor of 1.5 is adequate. Scaling GFED3 emissions by a factor of 1.5 is sufficient in active deforestation regions of South America and equatorial Asia, but a larger scaling factor is required elsewhere. The model with GFED3 emissions poorly simulates observed seasonal variability in surface PM2.5 and AOD in regions where small fires

  4. Top-down model estimates, bottom-up inventories, and future projections of global natural and anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, E. A.; Kanter, D.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas and the largest remaining emitted ozone depleting substance. It is a product of nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria in soils, sediments and water bodies. Humans began to disrupt the N cycle in the preindustrial era as they expanded agricultural land, used fire for land clearing and management, and cultivated leguminous crops that carry out biological N fixation. This disruption accelerated after the industrial revolution, especially as the use of synthetic N fertilizers became common after 1950. Here we present findings from a new United Nations Environment Programme report, in which we constrain estimates of the anthropogenic and natural emissions of N2O and consider scenarios for future emissions. Inventory-based estimates of natural emissions from terrestrial, marine and atmospheric sources range from 10 to 12 Tg N2O-N/yr. Similar values can be derived for global N2O emissions that were predominantly natural before the industrial revolution. While there was inter-decadal variability, there was little or no consistent trend in atmospheric N2O concentrations between 1730 and 1850, allowing us to assume near steady state. Assuming an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years, the 'top-down' estimate of pre-industrial emissions of 11 Tg N2O-N/yr is consistent with the bottom-up inventories for natural emissions, although the former includes some modest pre-industrial anthropogenic effects (probably period 2000-2007. Based on a review of bottom-up inventories, we estimate total net anthropogenic N2O emissions of 6.0 Tg N2O-N/yr (5.4-8.4 Tg N2O-N/yr). Estimates (and ranges) by sector (in Tg N2O-N/yr) are: agriculture 4.1 Tg (3.8-6.8); biomass burning 0.7 (0.5-1.7); energy and transport 0.7 (0.5-1.2); industry 0.7 (0.3-1.1); and other 0.5 (0.2 - 0.8). Tropical deforestation has reduced emissions by 0.7 (0.5 - 1.0). Given the large inherent uncertainties in both approaches, it is encouraging that the

  5. Carbon cycling in the epilimnion of Lake Kivu (East Africa): surface net autotrophy and emission of CO2 to the atmosphere sustained by geogenic inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Alberto V.; Bouillon, Steven; Morana, Cédric D. T.; Servais, Pierre; Descy, Jean-Pierre; Darchambeau, François

    2013-04-01

    Lake Kivu [2.50°S 1.59°S 29.37°E 28.83°E] is one of the East African great lakes (2370 km2 surface area, 550 km3 volume). It is a deep (maximum depth of 485 m) meromictic lake, with an oxic mixolimnion down to 70 m maximum, and a deep monolimnion rich in dissolved gases and nutrients. Lake Kivu is permanently stratified (meromictic) and deep layers receive heat, salts, and CO2 from deep geothermal springs. Seasonality of the physical and chemical vertical structure and biological activity in surface waters of Lake Kivu is driven by the oscillation between the dry season (June-September) and the rainy season (October-May), the former characterized by a deepening of the mixolimnion. This seasonal mixing favours the input of dissolved nutrients and the development of diatoms, while, during the rest of the year, the phytoplankton assemblage is dominated by cyanobacteria, chrysophytes and cryptophytes. Huge amounts of CO2 and methane (CH4) (300 km3 and 60 km3, respectively, at 0°C and 1 atm] are dissolved in the deep layers of Lake Kivu. The CO2 is mainly geogenic. Large scale industrial extraction of CH4 from the deep layers of Lake Kivu is planned which could affect the ecology and biogeochemical cycling of C of the lake and change for instance the emission of greenhouse gases such as CH4 and CO2. Here, we report a data set covering the seasonality of CO2 dynamics and fluxes, in conjunction with mass balances of C, and process rate measurements (primary production and bacterial production). In order to capture the seasonal variations of the studied quantities, four cruises were carried out in Lake Kivu on 15/03-29/03/2007 (mid rainy season), 28/08-10/09/2007 (late dry season), 21/06-03/07/2008 (early dry season) and 21/04-05/05/2009 (late rainy season). We show that the lake is a modest source of CO2 to the atmosphere but which is sustained by geogenic inputs from depth rather than net heterotrophy as reported in lakes in general. Indeed we provide several lines

  6. Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

    1999-09-01

    Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

  7. RESTful NET

    CERN Document Server

    Flanders, Jon

    2008-01-01

    RESTful .NET is the first book that teaches Windows developers to build RESTful web services using the latest Microsoft tools. Written by Windows Communication Foundation (WFC) expert Jon Flanders, this hands-on tutorial demonstrates how you can use WCF and other components of the .NET 3.5 Framework to build, deploy and use REST-based web services in a variety of application scenarios. RESTful architecture offers a simpler approach to building web services than SOAP, SOA, and the cumbersome WS- stack. And WCF has proven to be a flexible technology for building distributed systems not necessa

  8. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.

    2008-01-01

    (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and F-gases normalized according to their 100-year global warming potentials (GWP)). The CH4 from landfills and wastewater collectively accounted for about 90% of waste sector emissions, or about 18% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (which were about...

  9. N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  10. A global wetland methane emissions and uncertainty dataset for atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Bloom

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Wetland emissions remain one of the principal sources of uncertainty in the global atmospheric methane (CH4 budget, largely due to poorly constrained process controls on CH4 production in waterlogged soils. Process-based estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions and their associated uncertainties can provide crucial prior information for model-based top-down CH4 emission estimates. Here we construct a global wetland CH4 emission model ensemble for use in atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0. Our 0.5°  ×  0.5° resolution model ensemble is based on satellite-derived surface water extent and precipitation reanalyses, nine heterotrophic respiration simulations (eight carbon cycle models and a data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis and three temperature dependence parameterizations for the period 2009–2010; an extended ensemble subset based solely on precipitation and the data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis is derived for the period 2001–2015. We incorporate the mean of the full and extended model ensembles into GEOS-Chem and compare the model against surface measurements of atmospheric CH4; the model performance (site-level and zonal mean anomaly residuals compares favourably against published wetland CH4 emissions scenarios. We find that uncertainties in carbon decomposition rates and the wetland extent together account for more than 80 % of the dominant uncertainty in the timing, magnitude and seasonal variability in wetland CH4 emissions, although uncertainty in the temperature CH4 : C dependence is a significant contributor to seasonal variations in mid-latitude wetland CH4 emissions. The combination of satellite, carbon cycle models and temperature dependence parameterizations provides a physically informed structural a priori uncertainty that is critical for top-down estimates of wetland CH4 fluxes. Specifically, our ensemble can provide enhanced information on the prior

  11. A global wetland methane emissions and uncertainty dataset for atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, A. Anthony; Bowman, Kevin W.; Lee, Meemong; Turner, Alexander J.; Schroeder, Ronny; Worden, John R.; Weidner, Richard; McDonald, Kyle C.; Jacob, Daniel J.

    2017-06-01

    Wetland emissions remain one of the principal sources of uncertainty in the global atmospheric methane (CH4) budget, largely due to poorly constrained process controls on CH4 production in waterlogged soils. Process-based estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions and their associated uncertainties can provide crucial prior information for model-based top-down CH4 emission estimates. Here we construct a global wetland CH4 emission model ensemble for use in atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0). Our 0.5° × 0.5° resolution model ensemble is based on satellite-derived surface water extent and precipitation reanalyses, nine heterotrophic respiration simulations (eight carbon cycle models and a data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis) and three temperature dependence parameterizations for the period 2009-2010; an extended ensemble subset based solely on precipitation and the data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis is derived for the period 2001-2015. We incorporate the mean of the full and extended model ensembles into GEOS-Chem and compare the model against surface measurements of atmospheric CH4; the model performance (site-level and zonal mean anomaly residuals) compares favourably against published wetland CH4 emissions scenarios. We find that uncertainties in carbon decomposition rates and the wetland extent together account for more than 80 % of the dominant uncertainty in the timing, magnitude and seasonal variability in wetland CH4 emissions, although uncertainty in the temperature CH4 : C dependence is a significant contributor to seasonal variations in mid-latitude wetland CH4 emissions. The combination of satellite, carbon cycle models and temperature dependence parameterizations provides a physically informed structural a priori uncertainty that is critical for top-down estimates of wetland CH4 fluxes. Specifically, our ensemble can provide enhanced information on the prior CH4 emission uncertainty and the

  12. The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M; West, J Jason

    2016-11-01

    Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration-response function for ozone and an integrated exposure-response model for PM2.5. We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally-675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year-and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution-related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual

  13. Petri Nets

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Associate Professor of. Computer Science and. Automation at the Indian. Institute of Science,. Bangalore. His research interests are broadly in the areas of stochastic modeling and scheduling methodologies for future factories; and object oriented modeling. GENERAL I ARTICLE. Petri Nets. 1. Overview and Foundations.

  14. Petri Nets

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 4; Issue 8. Petri Nets - Overview and Foundations. Y Narahari. General Article Volume 4 Issue 8 August 1999 pp ... Author Affiliations. Y Narahari1. Department ot Computer Science and Automation, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India.

  15. Life Cycle Assessment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Ethanol - Global Warming Potential and Environmental Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heath, G. A.; Hsu, D. D.; Inman, D.; Aden, A.; Mann, M. K.

    2009-07-01

    The objective of this study is to use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the global warming potential (GWP), water use, and net energy value (NEV) associated with the EISA-mandated 16 bgy cellulosic biofuels target, which is assumed in this study to be met by cellulosic-based ethanol, and the EISA-mandated 15 bgy conventional corn ethanol target. Specifically, this study compares, on a per-kilometer-driven basis, the GWP, water use, and NEV for the year 2022 for several biomass feedstocks.

  16. Atmospheric three-dimensional inverse modeling of regional industrial emissions and global oceanic uptake of carbon tetrachloride

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xiao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4 has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter using atmospheric CCl4 measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl4 for the period of 1996–2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH, driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl4 mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl4 mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl4 oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.

  17. Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): Analysis of the seasonal behaviour of NPP, LAI, FPAR along climatic gradients across ecotones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bondeau, A. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Kaduk, J. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Kicklighter, D.W. [Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hale, MA (United States). Ecosystems Center

    1997-10-01

    Spatial and seasonal variations of net primary production (NPP), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eleven global biospheric models are analysed using two transects covering a temperature and a precipitation gradient. The temperature transect crosses biomes such as tundra, boreal forest, temperate mixed forest, and temperate deciduous forest in North America. The precipitation transect crosses arid shrublands, savannas, and tropical forests in Africa. Two sites have been chosen from each of the two transects to examine the relationship between seasonal variations in NPP, FPAR and LAI in more detail, through the computation of the monthly absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and monthly light use efficiency (LUE). Seasonal variations in the climatic variables drive the seasonality of NPP, and depending if the simulated canopy responds to unfavourable periods or not, the seasonal NPP is determined by the seasonal APAR or the seasonal LUE. For the satellite-driven Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) using a standard climatology, the smooth seasonal variations are generally explained by the satellite observations, but the different strategies for processing the satellite data generate significant variability between models. Canopy Models differ widely, in particular with respect to LAI. This is visible over the evergreen forest s, though only a small part of the variability of the NPP seasonal profiles between models is explained by the LAI. Models disagree most on the description of the vegetation structure in savannas, where seasonal NPP is strongly dependent on the description of the canopy through both APAR and LUE. (orig./KW)

  18. The effect of harmonized emissions on aerosol properties in global models – an AeroCom experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Textor

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB. Surprisingly, harmonization of aerosol sources has only a small impact on the simulated inter-model diversity of the global aerosol burden, and consequently global optical properties, as the results are largely controlled by model-specific transport, removal, chemistry (leading to the formation of secondary aerosols and parameterizations of aerosol microphysics (e.g., the split between deposition pathways and to a lesser extent by the spatial and temporal distributions of the (precursor emissions.

    The burdens of black carbon and especially sea salt become more coherent in ExpB only, because the large ExpA diversities for these two species were caused by a few outliers. The experiment also showed that despite prescribing emission fluxes and size distributions, ambiguities in the implementation in individual models can lead to substantial differences.

    These results indicate the need for a better understanding of aerosol life cycles at process level (including spatial dispersal and interaction with meteorological parameters in order to obtain more reliable results from global aerosol simulations. This is particularly important as such model results are used to assess the consequences of specific air pollution abatement strategies.

  19. The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; West, J. Jason

    2016-01-01

    Background: Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. Objectives: We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. Methods: We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration–response function for ozone and an integrated exposure–response model for PM2.5. Results: We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally—675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year—and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). Conclusions: The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution–related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA

  20. Multiple effects and uncertainties of emission control policies in China: Implications for public health, soil acidification, and global temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu; McElroy, Michael B; Xing, Jia; Duan, Lei; Nielsen, Chris P; Lei, Yu; Hao, Jiming

    2011-11-15

    Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1-7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2. Copyright

  1. The Venus Emissivity Mapper - gaining a global perspective on the surface composition of Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbert, Joern; Dyar, Melinda; Widemann, Thomas; Marcq, Emmanuel; Maturilli, Alessandro; Mueller, Nils; Kappel, David; Ferrari, Sabrina; D'Amore, Mario; Tsang, Constantine; Arnold, Gabriele; Smrekar, Suzanne; VEM Team

    2017-10-01

    The permanent cloud cover of Venus prohibits observations of the surface with traditional imaging techniques over much of the EM spectral range, leading to the false notion that information about the composition of Venus’ surface could only be derived from lander missions. However, harsh environmental conditions on the surface cause landed missions to be sole site, highly complex, and riskier than orbiting missions.It is now known that 5 transparency windows occur in the Venus atmosphere, ranging from 0.86 µm to 1.18 µm. Recent advances in high temperature laboratory spectroscopy at the PSL at DLR these windows are highly diagnostic for surface mineralogy. Mapping of the southern hemisphere of Venus with VIRTIS on VEX in the 1.02 µm band was a proof-of-concept for an orbital remote sensing approach to surface composition and weathering studies[1-3]. The Venus Emissivity Mapper [4] proposed for the NASA’s Venus Origins Explorer (VOX) and the ESA EnVision proposal builds on these recent advances. It is the first flight instrument specially designed with a sole focus on mapping the surface of Venus using the narrow atmospheric windows around 1 µm. Operating in situ from Venus orbit, VEM will provide a global map of surface composition as well as redox state of the surface, providing a comprehensive picture of surface-atmosphere interaction and support for landing site selection. Continuous observation of the thermal emission of the Venus will provide tight constraints on the current day volcanic activity[5]. This is complemented by measurements of atmospheric water vapor abundance as well as cloud microphysics and dynamics. These data will allow for accurate correction of atmospheric interference on the surface measurements, which provide highly valuable science on their own. A mission combining VEM with a high-resolution radar mapper such as VOX or EnVision in a low circular orbit will provide key insights into the divergent evolution of Venus.1. Smrekar, S

  2. Impacts of global emissions of CO, NO x , and CH4 on China tropospheric hydroxyl free radicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Mingfeng; Lin, Yunping; Fan, Xinqiang; Peng, Li; Zhao, Chunsheng

    2012-07-01

    Using the global chemistry and transport model MOZART, the simulated distributions of tropospheric hydroxyl free radicals (OH) over China and its sensitivities to global emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NO x ), and methane (CH4) were investigated in this study. Due to various distributions of OH sources and sinks, the concentrations of tropospheric OH in east China are much greater than in west China. The contribution of NO + perhydroxyl radical (HO2) reaction to OH production in east China is more pronounced than that in west China, and because of the higher reaction activity of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), the contributions to OH loss by NMVOCs exceed those of CO and take the dominant position in summer. The results of the sensitivity runs show a significant increase of tropospheric OH in east China from 1990 to 2000, and the trend continues. The positive effect of double emissions of NO x on OH is partly offset by the contrary effect of increased CO and CH4 emissions: the double emissions of NO x will cause an increase of OH of 18.1%-30.1%, while the increases of CO and CH4 will cause a decrease of OH of 12.2%-20.8% and 0.3%-3.0%, respectively. In turn, the lifetimes of CH4, CO, and NO x will increase by 0.3%-3.1% with regard to double emissions of CH4, 13.9%-26.3% to double emissions of CO and decrease by 15.3%-23.2% to double emissions of NO x .

  3. Global Partitioning of NOx Sources Using Satellite Observations: Relative Roles of Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass Burning and Soil Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaegle, Lyatt; Steinberger, Linda; Martin, Randall V.; Chance, Kelly

    2005-01-01

    This document contains the following abstract for the paper "Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions." Satellite observations have been used to provide important new information about emissions of nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are significant in atmospheric chemistry, having a role in ozone air pollution, acid deposition and climate change. We know that human activities have led to a three- to six-fold increase in NOx emissions since pre-industrial times, and that there are three main surface sources of NOx: fuel combustion, large-scale fires, and microbial soil processes. How each of these sources contributes to the total NOx emissions is subject to some doubt, however. The problem is that current NOx emission inventories rely on bottom-up approaches, compiling large quantities of statistical information from diverse sources such as fuel and land use, agricultural data, and estimates of burned areas. This results in inherently large uncertainties. To overcome this, Lyatt Jaegle and colleagues from the University of Washington, USA, used new satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. As the spatial and seasonal distribution of each of the sources of NOx can be clearly mapped from space, the team could provide independent topdown constraints on the individual strengths of NOx sources, and thus help resolve discrepancies in existing inventories. Jaegle's analysis of the satellite observations, presented at the recent Faraday Discussion on "Atmospheric Chemistry", shows that fuel combustion dominates emissions at northern mid-latitudes, while fires are a significant source in the Tropics. Additionally, she discovered a larger than expected role for soil emissions, especially over agricultural regions with heavy fertilizer use. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

  4. Global Carbon Emissions in the Coming Decades: The Case of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Mark; Levine, Mark D.; Aden, Nathaniel T.

    2008-05-01

    China's annual energy-related carbon emissions surpassed those of the United States in In order to build a more robust understanding of China's energy-related carbon emissions, emissions after 2001? The divergence between actual and forecasted carbon emissions international trade, and central government policies in driving emissions growth. so greatly in error and what drove the rapid growth of China's energy-related carbon this article reviews the role of economic restructuring, urbanization, coal dependence, underscores the rapid changes that have taken place in China's energy system since 2001.

  5. Optimal Estimation of Sulfuryl Fluoride Emissions on Regional and Global Scales Using Advanced 3D Inverse Modeling and AGAGE Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gressent, A.; Muhle, J.; Rigby, M. L.; Lunt, M. F.; Ganesan, A.; Prinn, R. G.; Krummel, P. B.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, P.; Weiss, R. F.; Harth, C. M.; O'Doherty, S.; Young, D.; Park, S.; Li, S.; Yao, B.; Reimann, S.; Vollmer, M. K.; Maione, M.; Arduini, I.; Lunder, C. R.

    2016-12-01

    Sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2) is used increasingly as a fumigant to replace methyl bromide (CH3Br), which was regulated under the Montreal Protocol (1986). Mühle et al., J. Geophys. Res., 2009) showed that SO2F2 had been accumulating in the global atmosphere with a growth rate of 5±1% per year from 1978 to 2007. They also determined, using the 2D AGAGE box model, that SO2F2 has a total atmospheric lifetime of 36±11 years mainly driven by the oceanic uptake. In addition, the global warming potential of SO2F2 has been estimated to be ≈4780 for a 100-year time horizon (Papadimitriou et al., J. Phys. Chem., 2008), which is similar to the CFC-11 (CCl3F) GWP. Thus it is a potent greenhouse gas and its emissions are expected to continue to increase in the future. Here we report the first estimations of the SO2F2 emissions and its ocean sink from January 2006 to the end of 2015 on both the global scale using a 3D Eulerian chemical transport model (MOZART-4) solving a Main Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion, and on the regional scale using a 3D Lagrangian dispersion model (NAME) via the reversible-jump trans-dimensional MCMC approach (Lunt et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 2016). The mole fractions calculated on the global scale are used as boundary conditions for emission calculations over the NAME regions in North America, Europe, East Asia and Australia. For this 10-year inversion we use observations from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) starting with six stations in 2006, which are La Jolla (California), Mace Head (Ireland), Cape Grim (Australia), Ragged Point (Barbados), Trinidad Head (California) and Cape Matatula (Samoa). We then add observations from Gosan (South Korea) in 2007, Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) in 2008, Shandiangzi (China) and Ny-Alesund (Norway) in 2010, and Monte Cimone (Italy) in 2011, reducing the uncertainty associated with the regions located close to these stations. Results are compared to (i) the total global SO2F2 emissions

  6. Multi-model impacts of climate change on pollution transport from global emission source regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Doherty

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry–climate models (CCMs contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP. Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end-of-the-21st-century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height enabling lofting to higher altitudes, although a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jets may also play a minor role in the extratropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over equatorial and Central Africa, extending from the surface to the mid-troposphere. This is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.

  7. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  8. Global EDGAR greenhouse gas emissions and national emissions reporting under the UN Climate Convention: availability, structure, definitions and role of uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivier, J. G.; Monni, S.; van Aardenne, J.; Doering, U. M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Peters, J. A.; Pagliari, V.

    2010-12-01

    JRC and PBL have compiled a comprehensive EDGAR v4 dataset for the ‘six’ greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6), which were constructed using consistently the 2006 IPCC methodology and combining activity data (international statistics) from publicly available sources and for the first time - to the extent possible - emission factors as recommended by the IPCC 2006 guidelines for GHG emission inventories. This dataset, that covers all countries, provides independent estimates for all anthropogenic sources from 1970 onwards that are consistent over time and comparable between countries. By using high resolution global grid maps per source category, we also compiled datasets with annual emissions on a 0.1x0.1 degree grid, as input for atmospheric models. Of the 220 UN nations only 43 industrialised countries (‘Annex I’) annually report their national GHG emissions in large detail from 1990 up to (presently) 2008, while most developing countries (‘non-Annex I’) for the UN Climate Convention (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol only report a summary table with emissions for one or more years (many only for 1994). All emissions in EDGAR 4 are detailed at country level using the same standard IPCC inventory source categories as used by industrialised countries in their report to the Climate Convention. Thus we provide full and up-to-date inventories per country, also for developing countries that go beyond the mostly very aggregated UNFCCC reports of the developing countries. Moreover, the time series back in time to 1970 provides for the UNFCCC trends a historic perspective. As part of our objective to contribute to more reliable inventories by providing a reference emissions database for emission scenarios, inventory comparisons and for atmospheric modellers, we strive to transparently document all data sources used and assumptions made where data was missing, in particular for assumptions made on the shares of

  9. Developments in greenhouse gas emissions and net energy use in Danish agriculture - How to achieve substantial CO{sub 2} reductions?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalgaard, T., E-mail: tommy.dalgaard@agrsci.dk [Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark); Olesen, J.E.; Petersen, S.O.; Petersen, B.M.; Jorgensen, U.; Kristensen, T.; Hutchings, N.J. [Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark); Gyldenkaerne, S. [Aarhus University, National Environmental Research Institute, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Hermansen, J.E. [Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark)

    2011-11-15

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are a significant contributor to total Danish emissions. Consequently, much effort is currently given to the exploration of potential strategies to reduce agricultural emissions. This paper presents results from a study estimating agricultural GHG emissions in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (including carbon sources and sinks, and the impact of energy consumption/bioenergy production) from Danish agriculture in the years 1990-2010. An analysis of possible measures to reduce the GHG emissions indicated that a 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable, including mitigation measures in relation to the handling of manure and fertilisers, optimization of animal feeding, cropping practices, and land use changes with more organic farming, afforestation and energy crops. In addition, the bioenergy production may be increased significantly without reducing the food production, whereby Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance. - Highlights: > GHG emissions from Danish agriculture 1990-2010 are calculated, including carbon sequestration. > Effects of measures to further reduce GHG emissions are listed. > Land use scenarios for a substantially reduced GHG emission by 2050 are presented. > A 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable. > Via bioenergy production Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance. - Scenario studies of greenhouse gas mitigation measures illustrate the possible realization of CO{sub 2} reductions for Danish agriculture by 2050, sustaining current food production.

  10. Natural and Anthropogenic Controls over Global Terrestrial N2O Emission Growth at a Century-Long Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Kamaljit, K.; Zhang, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased by 20% relative to pre-industrial level. It has attracted growing attention since N2O has long life time and radiative forcing 265 times higher than CO2 at 100-year time horizon. Global N2O emission from terrestrial ecosystem is among the most important contributors to the increase of atmospheric N2O. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, less intensive studies have been performed in assessing the spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial N2O emission and attributing its changes to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances across the globe. Here we integrated gridded time-series data of climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) to a process-based land ecosystem model, DLEM, for answering the above questions. During 1900-2010, the inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes have been examined. Through this, we distinguished and quantified the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities to N2O emission growth at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. The impacts of climate variability, and increasing nitrogen input, particularly nitrogen fertilizer use along with enhanced food production, have been paid special attention. Hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission are identified in this study. It provides clue for scientific community and policy makers to develop potential management strategies for mitigating atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  11. Evaluation of Global Photosynthesis and BVOC Emission Covariance with Climate in NASA ModelE2-Y

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.

    2012-12-01

    Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a measure of the total amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere every year to fuel photosynthesis, is the largest global carbon flux. GPP is vital for human welfare as the basis for food and fiber, and provides the crucial ecosystem service of reducing the accumulation of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere. Land plants emit a significant fraction of the assimilated carbon back to the atmosphere in the form of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprene is the dominant BVOC emission with an estimated global source of 200-660 TgC/yr. Global monoterpene emission estimates range from 30-130 TgC/yr. BVOC photochemical oxidation exerts a profound impact on the distribution and variability of the short-lived climate forcers: ozone, biogenic secondary organic aerosol and methane. Here, we apply multiple observational datasets from a suite of platforms to evaluate an updated global chemistry-climate model that is coupled to a new vegetation biophysics scheme incorporating photosynthesis-dependent BVOC emissions (NASA ModelE2-Y). A fixed vegetation structure dataset based on 8 plant functional types and prescribed phenology including crop planting and harvesting gives GPP of 128 PgC/yr and a global isoprene source of 200TgC/yr. The model GPP captures 85% of the annual average zonal mean variability in a FLUXNET-derived global dataset that was generated by data orientated diagnostic upscaling. We assess model BVOC emission climatology against a comprehensive database of campaign-average above canopy flux measurements and surface concentrations of isoprene and monoterpene collected between 1995-2010 across a wide range of ecosystem types, regions and seasons (> 25 flux estimates; > 22 surface concentration values). We evaluate the diurnal, seasonal and interannual integrity of the model BVOC variability against 9 sites for isoprene and 4 sites for monoterpene. The model captures ~60% of the variability in the time

  12. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Unger

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar–Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs, prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64–96% and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr−1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  13. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zheng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Arneth, Almut; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.; McKinney, Karena A.; Misztal, P.; Potosnak, M.; Rinne, J.; Pressley, S.; Schoon, N.; Serca, D.

    2013-10-22

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar/Ball- Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present day climatic state that uses plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64-96 %) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  14. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  15. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  16. Responding to climate change and the global land crisis: REDD+, market transformation and low-emissions rural development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepstad, Daniel C; Boyd, William; Stickler, Claudia M; Bezerra, Tathiana; Azevedo, Andrea A

    2013-06-05

    Climate change and rapidly escalating global demand for food, fuel, fibre and feed present seemingly contradictory challenges to humanity. Can greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use, more than one-fourth of the global total, decline as growth in land-based production accelerates? This review examines the status of two major international initiatives that are designed to address different aspects of this challenge. REDD+ is an emerging policy framework for providing incentives to tropical nations and states that reduce their GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Market transformation, best represented by agricultural commodity roundtables, seeks to exclude unsustainable farmers from commodity markets through international social and environmental standards for farmers and processors. These global initiatives could potentially become synergistically integrated through (i) a shared approach for measuring and favouring high environmental and social performance of land use across entire jurisdictions and (ii) stronger links with the domestic policies, finance and laws in the jurisdictions where agricultural expansion is moving into forests. To achieve scale, the principles of REDD+ and sustainable farming systems must be embedded in domestic low-emission rural development models capable of garnering support across multiple constituencies. We illustrate this potential with the case of Mato Grosso State in the Brazilian Amazon.

  17. Benchmarking Anthropogenic Heavy Metals Emissions: Australian and Global Urban Environmental Health Risk Based Indicators of Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dejkovski, Nick

    2016-01-01

    In Australia, the impacts of urbanisation and human activity are evident in increased waste generation and the emissions of metals into the air, land or water. Metals that have accumulated in urban soils almost exclusively anthropogenically can persist for long periods in the environment. Anthropogenic waste emissions containing heavy metals are a…

  18. Building and characterizing regional and global emission inventories of toxic pollutants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cucurachi, S.; Sala, A.; Laurent, A.; Heijungs, R.

    2014-01-01

    To define consistent strategies for managing the environmental sustainability of chemicals, it is important to quantify the magnitude of their emissions and their associated impacts. Not all countries monitor and report emissions related to their activities. This is particularly the case for

  19. Energy use and CO2 emissions of China’s industrial sector from a global perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Sheng; Kyle, G. Page; Yu, Sha; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Luckow, Patrick W.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Zhang, Xiliang; Edmonds, James A.

    2013-07-10

    The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China’s final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China’s per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.

  20. Association of carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emissions and smoking with lung cancer mortality rates on a global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motorykin, Oleksii; Matzke, Melissa M; Waters, Katrina M; Massey Simonich, Staci L

    2013-04-02

    The objective of this research was to investigate the relationship between lung cancer mortality rates, carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emissions, and smoking on a global scale, as well as for different socioeconomic country groups. The estimated lung cancer deaths per 100,000 people (ED100000) and age standardized lung cancer death rate per 100,000 people (ASDR100000) in 2004 were regressed on PAH emissions in benzo[a]pyrene equivalence (BaPeq), smoking prevalence, cigarette price, gross domestic product per capita, percentage of people with diabetes, and average body mass index using simple and multiple linear regression for 136 countries. Using stepwise multiple linear regression, a statistically significant positive linear relationship was found between loge(ED100000) and loge(BaPeq) emissions for high (p-value emissions for the combination of upper-middle and high (p-value emissions in the U.S., Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Brazil, South Africa, Poland, Mexico, and Malaysia could reduce ED100000, while reducing smoking prevalence in Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Nepal, Mongolia, Cambodia, and Bangladesh could significantly reduce the ED100000 and ASDR100000.

  1. Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, Julie; Asrar, Ghassem R.; West, Tristram O.

    2017-09-29

    Background: Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine.

  2. Indirect global warming effects of ozone and stratospheric water vapor induced by surface methane emission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Grossman, A.S.; Tamaresis, J.S.; Patten, K.O. Jr.; Jain, A.; Grant, K.A.

    1994-07-01

    Methane has indirect effects on climate due to chemical interactions as well as direct radiative forcing effects as a greenhouse gas. We have calculated the indirect, time-varying tropospheric radiative forcing and GWP of O{sub 3} and stratospheric H{sub 2}O due to an impulse of CH{sub 4}. This impulse, applied to the lowest layer of the atmosphere, is the increase of the atmospheric mass of CH{sub 4} resulting from a 25 percent steady state increase in the current emissions as a function of latitude. The direct CH{sub 4} radiative forcing and GWP are also calculated. The LLNL 2-D radiative-chemistry-transport model is used to evaluate the resulting changes in the O{sub 3}, H{sub 2}O and CH{sub 4} atmospheric profiles as a function of time. A correlated k-distribution radiative transfer model is used to calculate the radiative forcing at the tropopause of the globally-averaged atmosphere profiles. The O{sub 3} indirect GWPs vary from {approximately}27 after a 20 yr integration to {approximately}4 after 500 years, agreeing with the previous estimates to within about 10 percent. The H{sub 2}O indirect GWPs vary from {approximately}2 after a 20 yr integration to {approximately}0.3 after 500 years, and are in close agreement with other estimates. The CH{sub 4} GWPs vary from {approximately}53 at 20 yrs to {approximately}7 at 500 yrs. The 20 year CH{sub 4} GWP is {approximately}20% larger than previous estimates of the direct CH{sub 4} GWP due to a CH{sub 4} response time ({approximately}17 yrs) that is much longer than the overall lifetime (10 yrs). The increased CH{sub 4} response time results from changes in the OH abundances caused by the CH{sub 4} impulse. The CH{sub 4} radiative forcing results are consistent with IPCC values. Estimates are made of latitude effects in the radiative forcing calculations, and UV effects on the O{sub 3} radiative forcing calculations (10%).

  3. Master Robotic Net

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Lipunov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of the MASTER-Net project is to produce a unique fast sky survey with all sky observed over a single night down to a limiting magnitude of 19-20. Such a survey will make it possible to address a number of fundamental problems: search for dark energy via the discovery and photometry of supernovae (including SNIa, search for exoplanets, microlensing effects, discovery of minor bodies in the Solar System, and space-junk monitoring. All MASTER telescopes can be guided by alerts, and we plan to observe prompt optical emission from gamma-ray bursts synchronously in several filters and in several polarization planes.

  4. Global methane emission estimates for 2000-2012 from CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuruta, Aki; Aalto, Tuula; Backman, Leif; Hakkarainen, Janne; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Krol, Maarten C.; Spahni, Renato; Houweling, Sander; Laine, Marko; Dlugokencky, Ed; Gomez-Pelaez, Angel J.; van der Schoot, Marcel; Langenfelds, Ray; Ellul, Raymond; Arduini, Jgor; Apadula, Francesco; Gerbig, Christoph; Feist, Dietrich G.; Kivi, Rigel; Yoshida, Yukio; Peters, Wouter

    2017-03-01

    We present a global distribution of surface methane (CH4) emission estimates for 2000-2012 derived using the CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 (CTE-CH4) data assimilation system. In CTE-CH4, anthropogenic and biospheric CH4 emissions are simultaneously estimated based on constraints of global atmospheric in situ CH4 observations. The system was configured to either estimate only anthropogenic or biospheric sources per region, or to estimate both categories simultaneously. The latter increased the number of optimizable parameters from 62 to 78. In addition, the differences between two numerical schemes available to perform turbulent vertical mixing in the atmospheric transport model TM5 were examined. Together, the system configurations encompass important axes of uncertainty in inversions and allow us to examine the robustness of the flux estimates. The posterior emission estimates are further evaluated by comparing simulated atmospheric CH4 to surface in situ observations, vertical profiles of CH4 made by aircraft, remotely sensed dry-air total column-averaged mole fraction (XCH4) from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and XCH4 from the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). The evaluation with non-assimilated observations shows that posterior XCH4 is better matched with the retrievals when the vertical mixing scheme with faster interhemispheric exchange is used. Estimated posterior mean total global emissions during 2000-2012 are 516 ± 51 Tg CH4 yr-1, with an increase of 18 Tg CH4 yr-1 from 2000-2006 to 2007-2012. The increase is mainly driven by an increase in emissions from South American temperate, Asian temperate and Asian tropical TransCom regions. In addition, the increase is hardly sensitive to different model configurations ( < 2 Tg CH4 yr-1 difference), and much smaller than suggested by EDGAR v4.2 FT2010 inventory (33 Tg CH4 yr-1), which was used for prior anthropogenic emission estimates. The result is in good agreement with other

  5. An estimate of monthly global emissions of anthropogenic CO2: Impact on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erickson, D [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Mills, R [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Gregg, J [University of Maryland; Blasing, T J [ORNL; Hoffman, F [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Andres, Robert Joseph [ORNL; Devries, M [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Zhu, Z [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Kawa, S [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

    2008-01-01

    Monthly estimates of the global emissions of anthropogenic CO2 are presented. Approximating the seasonal CO2 emission cycle using a 2-harmonic Fourier series with coefficients as a function of latitude, the annual fluxes are decomposed into monthly flux estimates based on data for the United States and applied globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates are then used to model atmospheric CO2 concentrations using meteorological fields from the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. We find that the use of monthly resolved fluxes makes a significant difference in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 in and near those regions where anthropogenic CO2 is released to the atmosphere. Local variations of 2-6 ppmv CO2 in the seasonal cycle amplitude are simulated; larger variations would be expected if smaller source-receptor distances could be more precisely specified using a more refined spatial resolution. We also find that in the midlatitudes near the sources, synoptic scale atmospheric circulations are important in the winter and that boundary layer venting and diurnal rectifier effects are more important in the summer. These findings have implications for inverse-modeling efforts that attempt to estimate surface source/sink regions especially when the surface sinks are colocated with regions of strong anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

  6. Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao; Kaiser, Johannes W.; van der Werf, Guido R.

    2017-09-01

    Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr-1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled

  7. Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. E. van Marle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and

  8. Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Brian; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A.; Peñuelas, Josep; Riahi, Keywan; Rydzak, Felicjan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Obersteiner, Michael

    2017-04-01

    In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.

  9. Global Reverse Supply Chain Redesign for Household Plastic Waste under the Emission Trading Scheme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bing, X.; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, J.M.; Chabaane, A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    With increasing global resource scarcity, waste becomes a resource that can be managed globally. A reverse supply chain network for waste recycling needs to process all the waste with minimum costs and environmental impact. As re-processing of waste is one of the major sources of pollution in the

  10. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.durand@uclouvain.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel, E-mail: axel.pierru@ifp.f [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Smeers, Yves, E-mail: yves.smeers@uclouvain.ac.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2010-09-15

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a 'hard cap' or a 'soft cap'. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories-with two branches after 2020-for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios.

  11. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France)

    2010-09-15

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

  12. A 1990 global emission inventory of anthropogenic sources of carbon monoxide on 1° × 1° developed in the framework of EDGAR/GEIA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Bloos, J.P.J.; Berdowski, J.J.M.; Visschedijk, A.J.H.; Bouwman, A.F.

    1999-01-01

    A global emission inventory of carbon monoxide (CO) emissions with 1° × 1° latitude-longitude resolution was compiled for 1990 on a sectoral basis. The sectoral sources considered include large-scale biomass burning (29%, of which savanna burning, 18%, and deforestation, 11%), fossil fuel combustion

  13. Inter-comparison of Speciated Aerosol Loading over India for Global and Regional Emission Inventory using a Chemical Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upadhyay, Abhishek; Dey, Sagnik; Goyal, Pramila

    2017-04-01

    Air quality of a region directly affects health of entire biotic and abiotic components of ecosystem. Exposure to particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) in atmosphere has been directly related to mortality and mobility in various studies. India is one of the aerosol hotspots globally with 0.8 million premature death attributed to exposure to ambient PM2.5. Robust long-term in-situ data of speciated PM2.5 is lacking in India. The problem cannot be resolved by utilizing satellite data as inferring composition is difficult. Therefore a modelling approach is required. We examine spatial and temporal distribution of PM2.5 and its constituent species with a regional and global inventory through chemical transport model (WRF-Chem) over India. The simulation is conducted with RADM2 chemistry and GOCART aerosol module for 8 years (2007-2014). Emissions are interpolated for domain from global anthropogenic emission inventory RETRO and EDGAR for species other than BC, OC and Sulfate. Results from GOCART global inventory are compared with results from a regional inventory for species OC, BC and Sulfate. Validation of CTM simulations against observations (ground based monitoring stations and satellite observations) demonstrates the capability of the CTM to represent space-time variation of aerosols in this region. For example, the build-up of aerosols over the eastern part of the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) during winter (as observed by space-borne sensors) due to the meteorological influence is well captured by the CTM. A correlation of 0.51 and 0.52 has been observed between monitored and model simulated PM2.5 at the two big cities of India, New Delhi and Mumbai respectively. Distribution of PM2.5 is high in the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) and distribution of OC and BC is also more in IGB region with both emission inventories. In the IGB region OC and BC contribute 8 - 20 % and 2.5 - 5 % to total PM2.5. Global and regional emission inventories are showing similar

  14. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  15. Assessing the contribution of beach-cast seagrass wrack to global GHGs emissions: experimental models, problems and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misson, Gloria; Incerti, Guido; Alberti, Giorgio; Delle Vedove, Gemini; Pirelli, Tiziana; Peressotti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Carbon stock in coastal seagrass ecosystems is estimated to be 4.2-8.4 Pg C. While covering less than 0.2% of the ocean floor, seagrasses store about 10% of the carbon buried in the oceans each year. However, such a potential contribution is reduced by the annual loss of seagrasses globally (-1.5% per year) mainly because of anthropogenic coastal development and climate change. Like many terrestrial higher plants, marine seagrasses lose their old leaves during annual or inter-annual senescence, and a significant proportion of these residues is transported in surface waters and washed up on shores by surf, tides and winds. This beach-cast seagrass wrack provides important ecosystem services, such as reducing wave impact, protecting beaches from erosion, providing habitat to bird and invertebrate species that colonize shorelines, and being a primary food resource for beach detritivores. However, accumulation of seagrass wrack on beaches, following degradation of meadows, can negatively impact tourism. Therefore, wrack piles are frequently collected and disposed of in landfills or biomass waste facilities, and the adoption of these management practices implies substantial environmental and economic costs. On the other hand, wrack piles might be a significant source of greenhouse emissions (GHGs). Recent studies reported CO2 emission rates and suggested possible mitigation options, such as energy conversion and biochar production through pyrolysis. Even though quantitative estimates of both seagrass coastal