WorldWideScience

Sample records for net exchange rates

  1. Single interval longwave radiation scheme based on the net exchanged rate decomposition with bracketing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Geleyn, J.- F.; Mašek, Jan; Brožková, Radmila; Kuma, P.; Degrauwe, D.; Hello, G.; Pristov, N.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 143, č. 704 (2017), s. 1313-1335 ISSN 0035-9009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Keywords : numerical weather prediction * climate models * clouds * parameterization * atmospheres * formulation * absorption * scattering * accurate * database * longwave radiative transfer * broadband approach * idealized optical paths * net exchanged rate decomposition * bracketing * selective intermittency Impact factor: 3.444, year: 2016

  2. Net capital flows to and the real exchange rate of Western Balkan countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrisch Hubert

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses Granger causality tests to assess the linkages between changes in the real exchange rate and net capital inflows using the example of Western Balkan countries, which have suffered from low competitiveness and external imbalances for many years. The real exchange rate is a measure of a country’s price competitiveness, and the paper uses two concepts: relative unit labour cost and relative inflation differential. The sample consists of six Western Balkan countries for the period 1996-2012, relative to the European Union (EU. The main finding is that changes in the net capital flows precede changes in relative unit labour costs and not vice versa. Also, there is evidence that net capital flows affect the inflation differential of countries, although to a less discernible extent. This suggests that the increasing divergence in the unit labour cost between the EU and Western Balkan countries up to the global financial crisis was at least partly the result of net capital inflows. The paper adds to the ongoing debate on improving cost competitiveness through wage restrictions as the main vehicle to avert the accumulation of current account imbalances. It shows the importance of changes in the exchange rate regime, reform of the interaction between the financial and the real sector, and financial supervision and structural change.

  3. Basic Exchange Rate Theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis four-chapter overview of basic exchange rate theories discusses (i) the elasticity and absorption approach, (ii) the (long-run) implications of the monetary approach, (iii) the short-run effects of monetary and fiscal policy under various economic conditions, and (iv) the transition

  4. Dynamical Clustering of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Fenn, Daniel J.; Porter, Mason A.; Mucha, Peter J; Mark McDonald; Stacy Williams; Johnson, Neil F.; Jones, Nick S

    2009-01-01

    We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market over the period 1991--2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. To provide insights into the clustering of the exchange rate time series, we investigate dynamic communities in the network. We show that there is a relationship between an exchange rate's functional role withi...

  5. International Prices and Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Gopinath, Gita; Burstein, Ariel

    2013-01-01

    We survey the recent empirical and theoretical developments in the literature on the relation between prices and exchange rates. After updating some of the major findings in the empirical literature we present a simple framework to interpret this evidence. We review theoretical models that generate insensitivity of prices to exchange rate changes through variable markups, both under flexible prices and nominal rigidities, first in partial equilibrium and then in general equilibrium.

  6. Exchange rate determination in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Thai-Ha Le

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the determinants of the exchange rate in Vietnam and suggests policy implications. Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests and generalised variance decomposition (VDC) analysis were applied to monthly data from July 2004 to December 2013. The model was built based on the three popular approaches to exchange rate determination, which are purchasing power parity (PPP) approach, balance of payment (BOP) approach, and monetary and portfolio approach. This study finds that the p...

  7. Photosynthesis drives anomalies in net carbon-exchange of pine forests at different latitudes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luyssaert, S.; Janssens, I.A.; Sulkava, M.; Papale, D.; Dolman, A.J.; Reichstein, M.; Hollmén, J.; Martin, J.G.; Suni, T.; Vesala, T.; Loustau, D.; Law, B.E.; Moors, E.J.

    2007-01-01

    The growth rate of atmospheric CO2 exhibits large temporal variation that is largely determined by year-to-year fluctuations in land¿atmosphere CO2 fluxes. This land¿atmosphere CO2-flux is driven by large-scale biomass burning and variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Between- and within years,

  8. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEŠA LOTRIČ DOLINAR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using spectral analysis is very common in technical areas but rather unusual in economics and finance, where ARIMA and GARCH modeling are much more in use. To show that spectral analysis can be useful in determining hidden periodic components for high-frequency finance data as well, we use the example of foreign exchange rates

  9. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  10. Value-Added Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Rudolfs Bems; Robert C. Johnson

    2012-01-01

    This paper updates the conceptual foundations for measuring real effective exchange rates (REERs) to allow for vertical specialization in trade. We derive a value-added REER describing how demand for the value added that a country produces changes as the price of its value added changes relative to competitors. We then compute this index for 42 countries from 1970-2009 using trade measured in value added terms and GDP deflators. There are substantial differences between value-added and conven...

  11. Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules

    OpenAIRE

    Binici, Mahir; Cheung, Yin-Wong

    2011-01-01

    We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rate rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under co...

  12. Exchange rate rebounds after foreign exchange market interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-03-01

    This study examined the rebounds in the exchange rate after foreign exchange intervention. When intervention is strongly effective, the exchange rate rebounds at next day. The effect of intervention is reduced slightly by the rebound after the intervention. The exchange rate might have been 67.12-77.47 yen to a US dollar without yen-selling/dollar-purchasing intervention of 74,691,100 million yen implemented by the Japanese government since 1991, in comparison to the actual exchange rate was 103.19 yen to the US dollar at the end of March 2014.

  13. How to stabilize the currency exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    BLINOV, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    In 2015, many countries had to deal with the weakening of their currencies. Issues regarding exchange rate management by the Central Banks have again become the focal point of heated debate. For example, the Russian Ruble exchange rate has been fluctuating hugely. The problem now is not so much the Ruble's weakness as instability of its exchange rate, volatility. The management of the Central Bank claims that stabilization of the Ruble exchange rate is not possible though it is the respons...

  14. Foreign Exchange-Rate Exposure of Swedish Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Stoyanov, Zahari; Ahmad, Saleem

    2007-01-01

    The main focus of the paper is the problem of exchange-rate exposure of Swedish firms between Jan, 1st 2002 and Sep, 27th 2006. Defined as “a measure of the potential for a firm’s profitability, net cash flow, market value to change because of a change in exchange rates”, the problem of exchange rate exposure is investigated, making use of the “Market Value Approach” (also known as “Stock Market Ap-proach”), with certain additional extensions. With Sweden being a very open economy with strong...

  15. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Slovenia

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalo Caprirolo; Vladimir Lavrac

    2003-01-01

    The paper is divided in three sections presenting some stylized facts concerning monetary and exchange rate policy framework in Slovenia. Three periods are covered: Money-based Stabilization Policy (1991-1995), Price and Real Exchange Rate Stability Dual Targeting Policy (1996-2001), and Exchange Rate Based Stabilization Policy and Accession to ERM2 (2001-).

  16. Exchange Rate Expectations and the Current Exchange Rate: A Test of the Monetarist Approach

    OpenAIRE

    V S Somanath

    1984-01-01

    The monetarist model of the exchange rate includes expectations of the future exchange rate as a determinant of the current exchange rate. This paper investigates whether expectations are a significant determinant of the exchange rate. An expectations process that is consistent with a basic monetarist exchange rate model is considered. Alternative measures of expectations are generated using this process. In the empirical tests, while the standard forward exchange premium measure of expectati...

  17. Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate; A Stock-Flow Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid Faruqee

    1994-01-01

    This paper examines the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate from a stock-flow perspective. The empirical analysis estimates a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, net foreign assets, and other factors affecting trade flows. Using postwar data for the United States and Japan, cointegration analysis supports the finding that the structural factors underlying each country's net trade and net foreign asset positions determine the long-run path for the real value of th...

  18. The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel BENAZIC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The dilemma for every country with an independent monetary policy is which kind of exchange rate arrangement should be applied. Through the exchange rate policy, countries can influence their economies, i.e. price stability and export competiveness. Croatia is a new EU member state, it has its own monetary policy and currency but it is on the way to euro introduction. Regarding the experiences from the beginning of the 1990s when Croatia was faced with serious monetary instabilities and hyperinflation, the goal of Croatian National Bank (CNB is to ensure price stability and one way to do so is through exchange rate policy. Croatia, as a small and open economy, has applied a managed floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is determined primarily by the foreign exchange supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, with occasional market interventions by the CNB. Therefore, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, policymakers must be able to recognize how changes in these factors affect changes in the exchange rate. This research aims to find a relationship among the main sources of foreign currency inflow and outflow and the level of exchange rate in Croatia. The analysis is carried out by using the bounds testing (ARDL approach for co-integration. The results indicate the existence of a stable co-integration relationship between the observed variables, whereby an increase in the majority of variables leads to an exchange rate appreciation.

  19. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study found that a long-run relationship exists between the industrial productivity growth rate, ration of industrial production to gross domestic product, exchange rate, interest rate and terms of trade, and that exchange rate deregulation has significant impact on industrial performance. In order to determine the short term ...

  20. Growing season net ecosystem CO2 exchange of two desert ecosystems with alkaline soils in Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Longhui; Chen, Xi; van der Tol, Christiaan; Luo, Geping; Su, Zhongbo

    2014-01-01

    Central Asia is covered by vast desert ecosystems, and the majority of these ecosystems have alkaline soils. Their contribution to global net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) is of significance simply because of their immense spatial extent. Some of the latest research reported considerable abiotic CO2 absorption by alkaline soil, but the rate of CO2 absorption has been questioned by peer communities. To investigate the issue of carbon cycle in Central Asian desert ecosystems with alkaline soils, we have measured the NEE using eddy covariance (EC) method at two alkaline sites during growing season in Kazakhstan. The diurnal course of mean monthly NEE followed a clear sinusoidal pattern during growing season at both sites. Both sites showed significant net carbon uptake during daytime on sunny days with high photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but net carbon loss at nighttime and on cloudy and rainy days. NEE has strong dependency on PAR and the response of NEE to precipitation resulted in an initial and significant carbon release to the atmosphere, similar to other ecosystems. These findings indicate that biotic processes dominated the carbon processes, and the contribution of abiotic carbon process to net ecosystem CO2 exchange may be trivial in alkaline soil desert ecosystems over Central Asia. PMID:24455157

  1. China: Exchange Rate Policy and Asian Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Alicia García-Herrero; Tuuli Koivu

    2009-01-01

    This paper shows empirically that China s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the renminbi real effective exchange rate. However, the current size of the trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy, alone, will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The reduction in the trade surplus is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to exchange rate appreciation. In fact, they tend to fall rather than increase. By estimating bilateral import equations fo...

  2. Hysteresis response of daytime net ecosystem exchange during drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Pingintha

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Continuous measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE using the eddy-covariance method were made over an agricultural ecosystem in the southeastern US. During optimum environmental conditions, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR was the primary driver controlling daytime NEE, accounting for as much as 67 to 89% of the variation in NEE. However, soil water content became the dominant factor limiting the NEE-PAR response during the peak growth stage. NEE was significantly depressed when high PAR values coincided with very low soil water content. The presence of a counter-clockwise hysteresis of daytime NEE with PAR was observed during periods of water stress. This is a result of the stomatal closure control of photosynthesis at high vapor pressure deficit and enhanced respiration at high temperature. This result is significant since this hysteresis effect limits the range of applicability of the Michaelis-Menten equation and other related expressions in the determination of daytime NEE as a function of PAR. The systematic presence of hysteresis in the response of NEE to PAR suggests that the gap-filling technique based on a non-linear regression approach should take into account the presence of water-limited field conditions. Including this step is therefore likely to improve current evaluation of ecosystem response to increased precipitation variability arising from climatic changes.

  3. Salt Marsh Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance: Improving Methods to Quantify the Role of Lateral (Tidal) Exchanges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, K. D.

    2016-02-01

    Coastal wetlands are prime candidates for greenhouse gas emission offsets as they display extraordinarily high rates of carbon (C) sequestration. However, lack of data about rates of and controls on C sequestration in tidal wetlands, as well as substantial temporal and spatial heterogeneity, complicate development of both models and a methodology for use by C registries. The goals of our field research are to improve understanding of the climatic role of coastal wetlands, quantify potential for GHG emission offsets through restoration or preservation, and quantify impacts of eutrophication and other environmental factors. Among our objectives is to construct C and greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets for salt marshes, based on measurements of GHG exchanges with the atmosphere, C storage in soils, and lateral (tidal) exchanges of gases, C, and sediment. In this presentation, emphasis is on rate and source of tidal exchanges between salt marshes and adjacent estuaries. We measured fluxes by collecting high frequency data on tidal water flows and physical and chemical conditions in wetland channels using acoustic and optical sensors, as well as laser absorption spectrometry. To provide site-specific calibrations of sensors, we collected water samples across tidal cycles and seasons. Source investigations include analysis of stable isotope and lipid compositions. We used multiple regressions to estimate dissolved organic (DOC) and inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations at high frequency over extended time. Carbon flux was calculated as the product of concentration and water flux, corrected for modeled flow outside of the tidal creek. Annual rates of net C flux from wetland to estuary indicate that both DOC and DIC are large terms in the salt marsh carbon budget relative to net exchange with the atmosphere and rate of storage in soil, and that DIC flux may have been underestimated in previous studies.

  4. Interest Rate Rules for Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Gianluca Benigno; Pierpaolo Benigno; Fabio Ghironi

    2000-01-01

    This paper shows that properly designed interest rate rules can be consistent with maintaining exchange rate stability. It sheds light on the relation between interest rate rules, exchange-rate regimes, and determinacy of the rational expectations equilibrium in a modern macroeconomic framework.

  5. Interest Rate Rules, Exchange Market Pressure, and Successful Exchange Rate Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.; Mavromatis, K.

    2016-01-01

    Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call ''pressure.'' Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the

  6. Net ecosystem carbon exchange of a dry temperate eucalypt forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinko-Najera, Nina; Isaac, Peter; Beringer, Jason; van Gorsel, Eva; Ewenz, Cacilia; McHugh, Ian; Exbrayat, Jean-François; Livesley, Stephen J.; Arndt, Stefan K.

    2017-08-01

    Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle by sequestering a considerable fraction of anthropogenic CO2, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation. However, there is a gap in our understanding about the carbon dynamics of eucalypt (broadleaf evergreen) forests in temperate climates, which might differ from temperate evergreen coniferous or deciduous broadleaved forests given their fundamental differences in physiology, phenology and growth dynamics. To address this gap we undertook a 3-year study (2010-2012) of eddy covariance measurements in a dry temperate eucalypt forest in southeastern Australia. We determined the annual net carbon balance and investigated the temporal (seasonal and inter-annual) variability in and environmental controls of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). The forest was a large and constant carbon sink throughout the study period, even in winter, with an overall mean NEE of -1234 ± 109 (SE) g C m-2 yr-1. Estimated annual ER was similar for 2010 and 2011 but decreased in 2012 ranging from 1603 to 1346 g C m-2 yr-1, whereas GPP showed no significant inter-annual variability, with a mean annual estimate of 2728 ± 39 g C m-2 yr-1. All ecosystem carbon fluxes had a pronounced seasonality, with GPP being greatest during spring and summer and ER being highest during summer, whereas peaks in NEE occurred in early spring and again in summer. High NEE in spring was likely caused by a delayed increase in ER due to low temperatures. A strong seasonal pattern in environmental controls of daytime and night-time NEE was revealed. Daytime NEE was equally explained by incoming solar radiation and air temperature, whereas air temperature was the main environmental driver of night-time NEE. The forest experienced unusual above-average annual rainfall during the first 2 years of this 3-year period so that soil water content remained relatively high and the forest

  7. Net ecosystem carbon exchange of a dry temperate eucalypt forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hinko-Najera

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle by sequestering a considerable fraction of anthropogenic CO2, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation. However, there is a gap in our understanding about the carbon dynamics of eucalypt (broadleaf evergreen forests in temperate climates, which might differ from temperate evergreen coniferous or deciduous broadleaved forests given their fundamental differences in physiology, phenology and growth dynamics. To address this gap we undertook a 3-year study (2010–2012 of eddy covariance measurements in a dry temperate eucalypt forest in southeastern Australia. We determined the annual net carbon balance and investigated the temporal (seasonal and inter-annual variability in and environmental controls of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE, gross primary productivity (GPP and ecosystem respiration (ER. The forest was a large and constant carbon sink throughout the study period, even in winter, with an overall mean NEE of −1234 ± 109 (SE g C m−2 yr−1. Estimated annual ER was similar for 2010 and 2011 but decreased in 2012 ranging from 1603 to 1346 g C m−2 yr−1, whereas GPP showed no significant inter-annual variability, with a mean annual estimate of 2728 ± 39 g C m−2 yr−1. All ecosystem carbon fluxes had a pronounced seasonality, with GPP being greatest during spring and summer and ER being highest during summer, whereas peaks in NEE occurred in early spring and again in summer. High NEE in spring was likely caused by a delayed increase in ER due to low temperatures. A strong seasonal pattern in environmental controls of daytime and night-time NEE was revealed. Daytime NEE was equally explained by incoming solar radiation and air temperature, whereas air temperature was the main environmental driver of night-time NEE. The forest experienced unusual above-average annual rainfall during the first 2 years of this 3-year period so

  8. Eddy covariance measurements of net C exchange in the CAM bioenergy crop, Agave tequiliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Nick A.; Choncubhair, Órlaith Ní; Males, Jamie; del Real Laborde, José Ignacio; Rubio-Cortés, Ramón; Griffiths, Howard; Lanigan, Gary

    2016-04-01

    Bioenergy crop cultivation may focus more on low grade and marginal lands in order to avoid competition with food production for land and water resources. However, in many regions, this would require improvements in plant water-use efficiency that are beyond the physiological capacity of most C3 and C4 bioenergy crop candidates. Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants, such as Agave tequiliana, can combine high above-ground productivity with as little as 20% of the water demand of C3 and C4 crops. This is achieved through temporal separation of carboxylase activities, with stomata opening at night to allow gas exchange and minimise transpirational losses. Previous studies have employed 'bottom-up' methodologies to investigate carbon (C) accumulation and productivity in Agave, by scaling leaf-level gas exchange and titratable acidity (TA) with leaf area index or maximum productivity. We used the eddy covariance (EC) technique to quantify ecosystem-scale gas exchange over an Agave plantation in Mexico ('top-down' approach). Measurements were made over 252 days, including the transition from wet to dry periods. Results were cross-validated against diel changes in titratable acidity, leaf-unfurling rates, energy exchange fluxes and reported biomass yields. Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 displayed a CAM rhythm that alternated from a net C sink at night to a net C source during the day and partitioned canopy fluxes (gross C assimilation, FA,EC) showed a characteristic four-phase CO2 exchange pattern. The projected ecosystem C balance indicated that the site was a net sink of -333 ± 24 g C m-2 y-1, comprising cumulative soil respiration of 692 ± 7 g C m-2 y-1 and FA,EC of -1025 ± 25 g C m-2 y-1. EC-estimated biomass yield was 20.1 Mg ha-1 y-1. Average integrated daily FA,EC was -234 ± 5 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1 and persisted almost unchanged after 70 days of drought conditions. Our results suggest that the carbon acquisition strategy of drought avoidance employed by Agave

  9. Exchange Rate Policy in Morocco and Persistence of Real Exchange Rate Misalignments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohamed Bouzahzah; Radouane Bachar

    2014-01-01

    .... The objective of this article is to highlight the persistent nature of misalignments of the real exchange rate of the Dirham, especially since the adoption by Morocco of a policy exchange rate based...

  10. Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjong Wang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.

  11. Thermal Acclimation and Adaptation of Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.; Niu, S.; Fei, S.; Yuan, W.; Zhang, Z.; Schimel, D.; Fluxnet Pis, .

    2010-12-01

    Ecosystem responses to temperature change are collectively determined by its constituents, which are plants, animals, microbes, and their interactions. It has been long documented that all plant, animals, and microbial carbon metabolism (photosynthesis, respiration) can acclimate and respond to changing temperatures, influencing the response of ecosystem carbon fluxes to climate change. Climate change also can induce competition between species with different thermal responses leading to changes in community composition. While a great deal of research has been done on species-level responses to temperature, it is yet to examine thermal acclimation of adaptation of ecosystem carbon processes to temperature change. With the advent of eddy flux measurements, it is possible to directly characterize the ecosystem-scale temperature response of carbon storage. In this study, we quantified the temperature response functions of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), from which the responses of apparent optimal temperatures across broad spatial and temporal scales were examined. While temperature responses are normally parameterized in terms of the physiological variables describing photosynthesis and respiration, we focus on the apparent optimal behavior of NEE. Because the measurement integrated over multiple individuals and species within the footprint of the measurement (100s to 1000s of ha), it is challenging to interpret this measurement in terms of classical physiological variables such as the Q10. Rather we focus on the realized behavior of the ecosystem and its sensitivity to temperature. These empirical response functions can then be used as a benchmark for model evaluation and testing. Our synthesis of 656 site-years of eddy covariance data over the world shows that temperature response curves of NEE are parabolic, with their optima temperature strongly correlated with site growing season temperature across the globe and with annual mean temperature over years at

  12. SMAP L4 Global Daily 9 km Carbon Net Ecosystem Exchange V003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Level-4 (L4) carbon product (SPL4CMDL) provides global gridded daily estimates of net ecosystem carbon (CO2) exchange derived using a satellite data based...

  13. CARVE: Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and Regional Carbon Budgets for Alaska, 2012-2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides estimates of 3-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) at 0.5-degree resolution over the state of Alaska for 2012-2014. The NEE estimates are...

  14. NACP North American 8-km Net Ecosystem Exchange and Component Fluxes, 2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides modeled carbon flux estimates at 8-km spatial resolution over North America for the year 2004 of (1) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon...

  15. AirMOSS: L4 Modeled Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Continental USA, 2012-2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides Level 4 estimates of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of CO2 across the conterminous USA at a spatial resolution of 50 km. Modeled estimates are...

  16. Real effective exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Nwachukwu, Ngozi E.; Adebayo, Racheal O.; Shettima, Abdullahi M.; Anigwe, John O.; Udechukwu-Peterclaver, Chidinma T.

    2016-01-01

    The study analyzed the relationship between relevant macroeconomic variables and the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Nigeria based on the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was estimated to obtain the equilibrium REER while the resultant levels of misalignment were computed for the period 1990 - 2014. Model results indicated that terms of trade and degree of trade openness are significant determinants of the REER, imply...

  17. DOES CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AFFECT EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hisao Kumamoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of the degree of currency substitution on nominal exchange rate volatility in seven countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, and Peru. We use the Threshold ARCH model to consider the ratchet effect of currency substitution and sample periods in the 2000s, during which time the economies of the sample countries stabilized, while the U.S. dollar and euro depreciated against other major currencies following the recent global financial crisis. The presented empirical analyses show that the degree of currency substitution has significant positive effects on the conditional variance of the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate in most sample countries. Moreover, a shock to the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate has asymmetric effects on the conditional variance, depending on the sign. One possible explanation for these differential effects is the existence of the ratchet effect of currency substitution.

  18. Measurement-based upscaling of pan Arctic net ecosystem exchange: the PANEEx project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbufong, Herbert Njuabe; Kusbach, Antonin; Lund, Magnus

    2015-01-01

    The high variability in Arctic tundra net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon (C) can be attributed to the high spatial heterogeneity of Arctic tundra due to the complex topography. Current models of C exchange handle the Arctic as either a single or few ecosystems, responding to environmental cha...

  19. Regional atmospheric CO2 inversion reveals seasonal and geographic differences in Amazon net biome exchange

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alden, Caroline B.; Miller, John B.; Gatti, Luciana V.; Gloor, Manuel M.; Guan, Kaiyu; Michalak, Anna M.; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Touma, Danielle; Andrews, Arlyn; Basso, Luana S.; Correia, Caio S. C.; Domingues, Lucas G.; Joiner, Joanna; Krol, Maarten C.; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Peters, Wouter; Shiga, Yoichi P.; Thoning, Kirk; van der Velde, Ivar R.; van Leeuwen, Thijs T.; Yadav, Vineet; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate-carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO2 with

  20. Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueira, José Roberto C.; Mortoza, Letícia Pelluci D.

    2012-04-01

    With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the López-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns.

  1. Sea-ice melt CO2-carbonate chemistry in the western Arctic Ocean: meltwater contributions to air-sea CO2 gas exchange, mixed layer properties and rates of net community production under sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, N. R.; Garley, R.; Frey, K. E.; Shake, K. L.; Mathis, J. T.

    2014-01-01

    The carbon dioxide (CO2)-carbonate chemistry of sea-ice melt and co-located, contemporaneous seawater has rarely been studied in sea ice covered oceans. Here, we describe the CO2-carbonate chemistry of sea-ice melt (both above sea ice as "melt ponds" and below sea ice as "interface waters") and mixed layer properties in the western Arctic Ocean in the early summer of 2010 and 2011. At nineteen stations, the salinity (~ 0.5 to 1500 μatm) with the majority of melt ponds acting as potentially strong sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. The pH of melt pond waters was also highly variable ranging from mildly acidic (6.1 to 7) to slightly more alkaline than underlying seawater (8 to 10.7). All of observed melt ponds had very low (pH/Ωaragonite than the co-located mixed layer beneath. Sea-ice melt thus contributed to the suppression of mixed layer pCO2 enhancing the surface ocean's capacity to uptake CO2 from the atmosphere. Meltwater contributions to changes in mixed-layer DIC were also used to estimate net community production rates (mean of 46.9 ±29.8 g C m-2 for the early-season period) under sea-ice cover. Although sea-ice melt is a transient seasonal feature, above-ice melt pond coverage can be substantial (10 to > 50%) and under-ice interface melt water is ubiquitous during this spring/summer sea-ice retreat. Our observations contribute to growing evidence that sea-ice CO2-carbonate chemistry is highly variable and its contribution to the complex factors that influence the balance of CO2 sinks and sources (and thereby ocean acidification) is difficult to predict in an era of rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean.

  2. MONETARY MODELS AND EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1.242 percent increase in the nominal exchange rate (depreciation). The empirics of the results are straight forward; a domestic economy that inflates her money supply at a faster rate than does her trading partner can expect to suffer depreciation in the external value of her currency. Consequently, any change in the money ...

  3. Exchange rate arrangements: From extreme to "normal"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs crawling pegs and target zones and imperative-process "normalization" in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate "fear of floating" and "fear of pegging". The "impossible trinity" under the conditions of capital liberalization and globalization creates a bipolar view or hypothesis of vanishing intermediate exchange rate regimes.

  4. Conversion of a moderately rewetted fen to a shallow lake - implications for net CO2 exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koebsch, Franziska; Glatzel, Stephan; Hofmann, Joachim; Forbrich, Inke; Jurasinski, Gerald

    2013-04-01

    Extensive rewetting projects to re-establish the natural carbon (C) sequestration function of degraded peatlands are currently taking place in Europe and North-America. Year-round flooding provides a robust measure to prevent periods of drought that are associated with ongoing peat mineralization and to initiate the accumulation of new organic matter. Here, we present measurements of net carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange during the gradual conversion of a moderately rewetted fen to a shallow lake. When we started our measurements in 2009, mean growing season water level (MWGL) was 0 cm. In 2010 the site was flooded throughout the year with MWGL of 36 cm. Extraordinary strong rainfalls in July 2011 resulted in a further increase of MWGL to 56 cm. Measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were conducted during growing seasons (May-October) using the Eddy Covariance method. Information about vegetation vitality was deduced from the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) based on MODIS data. Ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were high during vegetation period 2009 (1273.4 and -1572.1 g CO2-C m-2), but decreased by 61 and 46% respectively when the fen was flooded throughout 2010. Under water-logged conditions, heterotrophic respiration declines and gas exchange is limited. Moreover, flooding is a severe stress factor for plants and decreases autotrophic respiration and photosynthesis. However, in comparison to 2010, rates of Reco and GEP doubled during the beginning of growing season 2011, indicating plastic response strategies of wetland plants to flooding. Presumably, plants were not able to cope with the further increase of water levels to up to 120 cm in June/July 2011, resulting in another drop of GEP and Reco. The effects of plant vitality on GEP were confirmed by the remote sensed vegetation index. Throughout all three growing seasons, the fen was a distinct net CO2 sink (2009: -333.3±12.3, 2010: -294.1±8.4, -352.4±5.1 g CO2-C m-2

  5. Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...

  6. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach...

  7. HAMDALA: STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO EXCHANGE RATE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    For Nigeria at the inception of SAP, a major strategic importance in the nexus of the exchange rate policy was the reduction of the parallel market premium given the existence of the market side by side the official markets. The Hamdala, a group of Hausa `currency sellers' came into existence as a reaction to the need to act ...

  8. Intervention Analysis of Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Rate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    (OLS) and intervention model using lag operator L. Monthly time series data spanning 1980:1 to 2014:12 were used ... The data considered for the analysis is the monthly average official exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the. United State dollar for the period 1980 to 2014. Research ... In 1999, there was a big jump in the ...

  9. Net Ecosystem Carbon Flux

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Net Ecosystem Carbon Flux is defined as the year-over-year change in Total Ecosystem Carbon Stock, or the net rate of carbon exchange between an ecosystem and the...

  10. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    CIPG = βo + β1EXR + β2INTR + β3TOT + µ2............. (iii). Where IPGR is industrial productivity growth rate and it is calculated as;. IPGR = (IOt-1 – IOt)/IOt-1. IO is index of industrial output. CIPG is contribution of industrial production to GDP, calculated as;. CIPG = (IO/GDP) X 100/1. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial ...

  11. Continuous measurements of net CO2 exchange by vegetation and soils in a suburban landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Emily B.; McFadden, Joseph P.

    2012-09-01

    In a suburban neighborhood of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA, we simultaneously measured net CO2 exchange of trees using sap flow and leaf gas exchange measurements, net CO2exchange of a turfgrass lawn using eddy covariance from a portable tower, and total surface-atmosphere CO2 fluxes (FC) using an eddy covariance system on a tall tower. Two years of continuous measurements showed that net CO2exchange varied among vegetation types, with the largest growing-season (Apr-Nov) net CO2 uptake on a per cover area basis from evergreen needleleaf trees (-603 g C m-2), followed by deciduous broadleaf trees (-216 g C m-2), irrigated turfgrass (-211 g C m-2), and non-irrigated turfgrass (-115 g C m-2). Vegetation types showed seasonal patterns of CO2exchange similar to those observed in natural ecosystems. Scaled-up net CO2 exchange from vegetation and soils (FC(VegSoil)) agreed closely with landscape FC measurements from the tall tower at times when fossil fuel emissions were at a minimum. Although FC(VegSoil) did not offset fossil fuel emissions on an annual basis, the temporal pattern of FC(VegSoil) did significantly alter the seasonality of FC. Total growing season FC(VegSoil)in recreational land-use areas averaged -165 g C m-2 and was dominated by turfgrass CO2 exchange (representing 77% of the total), whereas FC(VegSoil) in residential areas averaged -124 g C m-2 and was dominated by trees (representing 78% of the total). Our results suggest urban vegetation types can capture much of the variability required to predict seasonal patterns and differences in FC(VegSoil) that could result from changes in land use or vegetation composition in temperate cities.

  12. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...; and securities issued by multilateral lending institutions or regional development banks. 6. Netting a... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts A Appendix A to Subpart A of Part 1750 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF...

  13. Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article investigates the behavior of equilibrium exchange rate and real exchange rate misalignment in Sudan over the period 1979– 2009. In addition, the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance is examined. The empirical results show that the equilibrium exchange rate is significantly ...

  14. On the macroeconomic causes of exchange rates volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Claudio Morana

    2007-01-01

    What are the causes of exchange rate volatility? When second moments implications of theories of exchange rates determination are considered, long-term fundamental linkages between macroeconomic and exchange rate volatility can be envisaged. Moreover, as the exchange rate is an important determinant of aggregate demand, bidirectional causality should be expected. The results of the paper support the above intuitions pointing to important linkages and trade-offs relating exchange rate and macr...

  15. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....... ows bring us closer to the transaction level where rm decisions are actually made. I nd that the utilization of monthly data does add new information about the average level of pricing-to-market, and the di¤erences between long-run pricing-to-market and short-run pricing-to-market. Furthermore, I nd...

  16. Tanzania’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Niko A Hobdari

    2008-01-01

    Tanzania's real effective exchange rate (REER) has depreciated sharply since end-2000, reversing the appreciation that took place in the second half of the 1990s. Single-country and panel data estimates, and the external sustainability approach, suggest that Tanzania's REER is currently modestly undervalued relative to its estimated equilibrium level. Looking forward, a modest trend appreciation of the equilibrium REER is expected, consistent with continued high GDP growth and an expected rec...

  17. Similar net ecosystem exchange of beech stands located in France and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Granier, A.; Pilegaard, K.; Jensen, N.O.

    2002-01-01

    Net ecosystem exchange (NEE), as measured with eddy covariance was compared for two European beech stands for the years 1996-1999: a young beech forest (32 year-old) growing in east France, and a mature beech stand (80 year-old) located in Denmark. Those sites are included in the Carboeuroflux...

  18. Seasonal hysteresis of net ecosystem exchange in response to temperature change: Patterns and causes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niu, S.; Luo, Y.; Montagnani, L.; Janssens, I.A.; Gielen, B.; Rambal, S.; Moors, E.J.; Matteucci, G.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding how net ecosystem exchange (NEE) changes with temperature is central to the debate on climate change-carbon cycle feedbacks, but still remains unclear. Here, we used eddy covariance measurements of NEE from 20 FLUXNET sites (203 site-years of data) in mid- and high-latitude forests to

  19. real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    KEYWORDS:Exchange rate misalignment,co-integration and economic growth. INTRODUCTION. Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance has continued to gain currency in recent policy debates. This is because exchange rate misalignment may result in undesirable economic performance. Exchange.

  20. An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones

    OpenAIRE

    Donald J Mathieson; Robert P Flood; Andrew K. Rose

    1991-01-01

    In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System are used to explore the importance of non-linearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. Many implications of existing "target-zone" exchange rate models are tested; little support is found for existing non-linear models of limited exchange...

  1. Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on net primary productivity and net carbon exchange of China’s forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Ren; Hanqin Tian; Bo Tao; Art Chappelka; Ge Sun; et al

    2011-01-01

    Aim We investigated how ozone pollution and climate change/variability have interactively affected net primary productivity (NPP) and net carbon exchange (NCE) across China’s forest ecosystem in the past half century. Location Continental China. Methods Using the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) in conjunction with 10-km-resolution gridded historical data sets (...

  2. Annual variation in the net longshore sediment transport rate

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schoonees, JS

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available from wave data spanning a number of years, or by measuring continuously the longshore transport over a number of years. In both cases, it must be known over how many consecutive years either the computations or the measurements should be done. Ž... the annual variation in the net longshore transport rates over a period of 7 years. In a study Ž . Žby Shi-Leng and Teh-Fu 1987 , a longshore sediment transport formula the Bijker, .1967 method was calibrated against short-term measurements at Nouakchott...

  3. Modeling Exchange Rate Heteroskedasticity in Nigeria (1986-2008 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons exhibiting hetroskedasticity pattern in trend since the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. On this basis, the study modelled the consistency and persistency of ...

  4. Biophysical drivers of net ecosystem exchange in shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaimes, A.; Laney, C.; Tweedie, C. E.

    2013-12-01

    In the northern Chihuahuan Desert, large areas of southern New Mexico that were formerly dominated by perennial grasses, including black grama (Bouteloua eriopa) and mesa dropseed (Sporobolus flexus) have been replaced by desert shrubland species, in particular creosote bush (Larrea tridentata) and honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa). Recent studies suggest that these changes in land cover have the ability to modify near surface microclimate such as soil water holding capacity, albedo, carbon dioxide sequestration, and increases in local air temperature, respiration, sensible heat and evapotranspiration. Despite the recognized importance of the consequences of land cover change in the ecosystem, the rates and tipping points at which these changes occur are not well understood. This knowledge is key to improve predictions in regional and global models, as the region is expected to go through an imminent transition from warm to warmer climate in this century. This study analyze three years of data (2010-2012) from our multi sensor platform situated on the USDA ARS Jornada Experimental Range (JER), about 25 km northeast of Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA. A robust data set that combines high frequency micrometeorological data, plot phenology estimates and spectral indices was used. A combination of statistical analyses based on clustering methods (self-organizing maps) and simple nonparametric regression techniques (regression trees) were used to identify factors controlling fluxes and likely biophysical thresholds and tipping points indicative of different functional system states. Both analyses were implemented through the use of Neural Network Toolbox and Statistics toolbox within MATLAB 7.0. During the period of study the shrubland acted as a carbon sink ranging between -105 to -134 gCO2 m-2 y-1. The largest variation between years in the annual estimated fluxes was the slight decrease of total annual net ecosystem exchange during 2011 (-105 g m-2 s-1) in comparison

  5. Rethinking ASGISA and the rand exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem H Boshoff

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The ASGISA policy document identifies the exchange rate as one of the factors constraining accelerated growth in South Africa. This note argues that currency developments do not translate into business cycle movements in the aggregate economy, and that a weaker exchange rate is less likely to boost either foreign investment or export performance in the face of regulatory uncertainty. The South African government has recently launched the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative (ASGISA aimed at raising the long-term growth path of the economy. The plan identifies several so-called “binding constraints” that are considered to be inhibiting the economy from rising to more elevated levels of economic growth. One such “constraint”, according to the ASGISA policy document, is the “volatility and level of the currency” (Republic of South Africa, 2006. By including this issue, policymakers have signalled that fluctuations in the Rand are considered significant to broader economic fluctuations in South Africa. This research note questions such a conviction by offering evidence that currency fluctuations are not mirrored in the South African business cycle. Nonetheless, proponents may argue that a weaker Rand will stimulate particular sectors, mostly those that are export-oriented, while it will boost Foreign Direct Investment (FDI. However, this note argues further that a weaker Rand is less likely to generate sustainable improvement in either export-oriented industries or FDI in the absence of other reforms. The following sections consider these two issues in sequence.

  6. Analysis of the Chinese Exchange Rate Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngrok Cheng

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Asian Financial Crisis now is moving to a relatively stable phase, and at this time, whether Chinese RMB will depreciate is raising the concern of the outside world. If we simply consider economic factors, we will find REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate increased around 10%, where depreciation factors are lurking. However, after Vice Premier Zhu Rongji took the responsibility of economic operation and fixed the fundamental key of developing stably, many foreign departments present good impetus of development. After that, Foreign Exchange Rate Reservation increases and major focus is put on long-term operation for debt structure. On the contrary, If Chinese RMB depreciates dramatically, there will be some uneasiness towards domestic economy and also the burden of paying debt should be increased, people may suffer the loss quite a lot. Especially even we consider the responsibility as the central country in this region and the political & economical factors causing the harmonious atmosphere of Sino-American relationship, it can be predicted that Chinese RMB cannot depreciate dramatically within 1-2 years.

  7. Control of proton exchange membrane fuel cell system breathing based on maximum net power control strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi; Chen, Weirong; Liu, Zhixiang; Guo, Ai; Liu, Shukui

    2013-11-01

    In order to achieve the maximum net power, the analysis for the maximum net power characterization of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system is carried out. A maximum net power control (MNPC) strategy based on an implicit generalized predictive control (IGPC) and a reference governor is proposed to keep optimal oxygen excess ratio (OER) trajectory. The IGPC based on an effective informed adaptive particle swarm optimization (EIA-PSO) algorithm is developed to solve the predictive control law and reduce the computational complexity in the rolling optimization process. The simulations of three conditional tests are implemented and the results demonstrate that the proposed strategy can track the optimal OER trajectory, reduce the parasitic power and maximize the output net power. The comprehensive comparisons based on three conditional tests verify that the MNPC-IGPC has better robust performance in the presence of large disturbances, time delay and various noises. The experimental comparison with internal control system of Ballard 1.2 kW Nexa Power Module testifies the validity of the MNPC-IGPC for increasing the net power. Hence, this proposed strategy can provide better behavior to guarantee optimal OER trajectory and the maximum net power even though the disturbances and uncertainties occur.

  8. The effect of net foreign assets on saving rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben David Nissim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Observing empirical data we find that many countries try to delay the decision of increasing saving rate in order to avoid a decrease of the living standards. However the delay leads a deterioration of countries financial stability. We present a simple theoretical model that connects between countries' saving rate and their net foreign assets. Using cross section data set of 135 countries in 2010 we estimated the econometric relation between saving rate in 2010 as dependent variable and two explanatory variables: the current account in 2010 and the aggregated current account during 1980-2010. Our findings show that industrial countries in a bad financial state tend to decrease their saving rate as external debt is larger causing to deterioration in external debt while countries with good financial state tend to increase their saving rate and the tendency increase as financial state becomes better. Only in countries with a very large external debt saving rate tends to grow. The results point that gross foreign debt will keep increasing and will worsen world financial state causing increased risk of getting into a world crisis.

  9. Causes and Results of Exchange Rate Intervention Under Inflation Targeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bora Suslu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Under inflation targeting, central banks exchange rate interventions are discussed frequently in the economic literature recently. Effectiveness of intervention in exchange rate under inflation targeting are examined from three perspectives. These are expectations of the actors and the impact on the variance, reserve accumulation and the cost of sterilization. Since 2003 the Central Bank of Turkey has intervened exchange rate with both direct and indirect methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the results of these three aspects of the CBRT and the foreign exchange interventions. We found that by logit analysis under the inflation targeting of CBRT as a result of the intervention of exchange rate is effect expectations of economic unit and reduce of exchange rate the variance; after thes intervention the variance of exchange rate and cost of sterilization are increased. In this respect, the effectiveness of the intervention of the Central Bank exchange rate market is only reserve accumulation

  10. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given

  11. Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Frederic S. Mishkin

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses what recent economic research tells us about exchange rate pass-through and what this suggests for the control of monetary policy. It first focuses on exchange rate pass-through from a macroeconomic perspective and then examines the microeconomic evidence. In light of this evidence, it then discusses the implications of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy.

  12. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The investigation covers the period between 1970 and 2005. Exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty were estimated using the GARCH model. Estimation results indicated that exchange rate ...

  13. Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of the study had been to investigate the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth in Nigeria. This paper adopted purchasing power parity index, the parallel market index and the model-based index of exchange rate misalignment to investigate the effects of real exchange rate ...

  14. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are

  15. Effects Of Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty On Private Investment In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results of the study indicated that real exchange rate uncertainty is a significant determinant of private investment and that real exchange rate uncertainty has a negative impact on private investment in Ghana. The policy implication of the findings is that government should pursue sound exchange rate policies that ...

  16. Fundamentals and the Equilibrium of Real Exchange Rate of an Emerging Economy: Estimating the Exchange Rate Misalignment in Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jauhari Dahalan; Mohammed Umar; Hussin Abdullah

    2016-01-01

      To evaluate the existence of possible over and under valuation of exchange rate for Malaysia, the study examines the nature of misalignment in the equilibrium real exchange rate and its systemic...

  17. Fundamentals and the Equilibrium of Real Exchange Rate of an Emerging Economy: Estimating the Exchange Rate Misalignment in Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jauhari Dahalan; Mohammed Umar; Hussin Abdullah

    2016-01-01

    .... Based on the suggestion of the weak exogeneity and unit vector analysis, the study estimates the equilibrium and sustainable equilibrium real exchange rate based on the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER...

  18. VOLATILITY OF EXCHANGE RATE IN THE CONTEXT OF FOREIGN TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg STRATULAT

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Moderate fluctuation of the exchange rate, basically in its floating regime is considered normality. Meanwhile,excessive volatility of the exchange rate is an issue for many countries. Its elimination is directed to foreign trade, which, through essential exports, followed by significant currency inflows, contribute to the stability of exchange rates. Unfortunately, Moldova’s foreign trade has become a key factor in maintaining the stability of foreign exchange.

  19. Fluctuation Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Indian Financial Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, A.; Barat, P.

    Here we investigate the scaling behavior and the complexity of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Our analysis revealed that the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar exhibits a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies show randomness and follow Gaussian distribution. Moreover, it is seen that the complexity of the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is less than the other three exchange rate returns.

  20. Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Korea's Seaborne Import Volume?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Beom Kim

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study used monthly data from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the effects of USD/KRW exchange rate volatility on seaborne import volume in Korea. The results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL analysis indicate that USD/KRW exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative influence on Korea's seaborne import volume. Moreover, the results of a vector error correction model (VECM analysis found that the USD/KRW exchange rate volatility exhibited short-term unidirectional causality on import volume and real income, and confirmed bidirectional causality between the real effective exchange rate and exchange rate volatility.

  1. Net carbon exchange across the Arctic tundra-boreal forest transition in Alaska 1981-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Catharine Copass; McGuire, A.D.; Clein, Joy S.; Chapin, F. S.; Beringer, J.

    2006-01-01

    Shifts in the carbon balance of high-latitude ecosystems could result from differential responses of vegetation and soil processes to changing moisture and temperature regimes and to a lengthening of the growing season. Although shrub expansion and northward movement of treeline should increase carbon inputs, the effects of these vegetation changes on net carbon exchange have not been evaluated. We selected low shrub, tall shrub, and forest tundra sites near treeline in northwestern Alaska, representing the major structural transitions expected in response to warming. In these sites, we measured aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen pools, and used these data to parameterize the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. We simulated the response of carbon balance components to air temperature and precipitation trends during 1981-2000. In areas experiencing warmer and dryer conditions, Net Primary Production (NPP) decreased and heterotrophic respiration (R H ) increased, leading to a decrease in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). In warmer and wetter conditions NPP increased, but the response was exceeded by an increase in R H ; therefore, NEP also decreased. Lastly, in colder and wetter regions, the increase in NPP exceeded a small decline in R H , leading to an increase in NEP. The net effect for the region was a slight gain in ecosystem carbon storage over the 20 year period. This research highlights the potential importance of spatial variability in ecosystem responses to climate change in assessing the response of carbon storage in northern Alaska over the last two decades. ?? Springer 2005.

  2. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  3. Some Aspects Regarding the Relationship between the Exchange Rate and the Interest Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Aivaz Kamer Ainur

    2011-01-01

    The literature about the relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rate is quite extensive. This paper realizes an overview of the theories, problems and limits regarding the exchange rate and one of its determinant, the interest rate.

  4. AirMOSS: L4 Daily Modeled Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), AirMOSS sites, 2012-2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides Level 4 daily estimates of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of CO2 at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds (~1 km) for seven of the sites...

  5. Net ecosystem carbon exchange in three contrasting Mediterranean ecosystems – the effect of drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. David

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Droughts reduce gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco, contributing to most of the inter-annual variability in terrestrial carbon sequestration. In seasonally dry climates (Mediterranean, droughts result from reductions in annual rainfall and changes in rain seasonality. We compared carbon fluxes measured by the eddy covariance technique in three contrasting ecosystems in southern Portugal: an evergreen oak woodland (savannah-like with ca.~21% tree crown cover, a grassland dominated by herbaceous annuals and a coppiced short-rotation eucalyptus plantation. During the experimental period (2003–2006 the eucalyptus plantation was always the strongest sink for carbon: net ecosystem exchange rate (NEE between −861 and −399 g C m−2 year−1. The oak woodland and the grassland were much weaker sinks for carbon: NEE varied in the oak woodland between −140 and −28 g C m−2 year−1 and in the grassland between −190 and +49 g C m−2 year−1. The eucalyptus stand had higher GPP and a lower proportion of GPP spent in respiration than the other systems. The higher GPP resulted from high leaf area duration (LAD, as a surrogate for the photosynthetic photon flux density absorbed by the canopy. The eucalyptus had also higher rain use efficiency (GPP per unit of rain volume and light use efficiency (the daily GPP per unit incident photosynthetic photon flux density than the other two ecosystems. The effects of a severe drought could be evaluated during the hydrological-year (i.e., from October to September of 2004–2005. Between October 2004 and June 2005 the precipitation was only 40% of the long-term average. In 2004–2005 all ecosystems had GPP lower than in wetter years and carbon sequestration was strongly restricted (less negative NEE. The grassland was a net source of carbon dioxide (+49 g C m−2 year−1. In the oak woodland a large proportion of GPP resulted from carbon assimilated by its annual vegetation

  6. Biophysical controls on net ecosystem CO2 exchange over a semiarid shrubland in northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, X.; Zha, T. S.; Wu, B.; Zhang, Y. Q.; Gong, J. N.; Qin, S. G.; Chen, G. P.; Qian, D.; Kellomäki, S.; Peltola, H.

    2014-09-01

    The carbon (C) cycling in semiarid and arid areas remains largely unexplored, despite the wide distribution of drylands globally. Rehabilitation practices have been carried out in many desertified areas, but information on the C sequestration capacity of recovering vegetation is still largely lacking. Using the eddy-covariance technique, we measured the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) over a recovering shrub ecosystem in northwest China throughout 2012 in order to (1) quantify NEE and its components and to (2) examine the dependence of C fluxes on biophysical factors at multiple timescales. The annual budget showed a gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) of 456 g C m-2 yr-1 (with a 90% prediction interval of 449-463 g C m-2 yr-1) and an ecosystem respiration (Re) of 379 g C m-2 yr-1 (with a 90% prediction interval of 370-389 g C m-2 yr-1), resulting in a net C sink of 77 g C m-2 yr-1 (with a 90% prediction interval of 68-87 g C m-2 yr-1). The maximum daily NEE, GEP and Re were -4.7, 6.8 and 3.3 g C m-2 day-1, respectively. Both the maximum C assimilation rate (i.e., at the optimum light intensity) and the quantum yield varied over the growing season, being higher in summer and lower in spring and autumn. At the half-hourly scale, water deficit exerted a major control over daytime NEE, and interacted with other stresses (e.g., heat and photoinhibition) in constraining C fixation by the vegetation. Low soil moisture also reduced the temperature sensitivity of Re (Q10). At the synoptic scale, rain events triggered immediate pulses of C release from the ecosystem, followed by peaks of CO2 uptake 1-2 days later. Over the entire growing season, leaf area index accounted for 45 and 65% of the seasonal variation in NEE and GEP, respectively. There was a linear dependence of daily Re on GEP, with a slope of 0.34. These results highlight the role of abiotic stresses and their alleviation in regulating C cycling in the face of an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme

  7. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...... a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes......, and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...

  8. Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Assenmacher, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2)...... knowledge based expectations rather than so-called "rational expectations".......The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2...

  9. Do Exchange Rates Move in Line With Uncovered Interest Parity?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald); A. Mulder (Arjen)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractAccording to uncovered interest rate Parity (UIP), the expected relative change in an exchange rate is equal to the difference between interest rates between the two currencies. Empirically, UIP is frequently rejected. In this paper, we examine whether exchange rates have at least any

  10. Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The case of Morocco

    OpenAIRE

    Bouoiyour, Jamal; Rey, Serge

    2005-01-01

    We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (Europe of the 15), over the period 1960-2000 (annual data). We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (NATREX model). We show that a rise of the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows (exports and imports). The misalignments affect also the trade flows: an overvaluation leads...

  11. Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: Do African exchange rates follow a random walk?

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract In this paper we aim at modelling the long run behaviour of the Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER) for a pool of African countries. Not much attention has been paid to this group of countries, in particular, to the existence of nonlinearities in the long run path of such a variable. Controlling for two sources of nonlinearites, i.e. asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium and nonlinear deterministic trends allows us to gain some insight about the behaviour of the African R...

  12. Net ecosystem exchange and energy fluxes measured with the eddy covariance technique in a western Siberian bog

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Alekseychik

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Very few studies of ecosystem–atmosphere exchange involving eddy covariance data have been conducted in Siberia, with none in the western Siberian middle taiga. This work provides the first estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2 and energy budgets in a typical bog of the western Siberian middle taiga based on May–August measurements in 2015. The footprint of measured fluxes consisted of a homogeneous mixture of tree-covered ridges and hollows with the vegetation represented by typical sedges and shrubs. Generally, the surface exchange rates resembled those of pine-covered bogs elsewhere. The surface energy balance closure approached 100 %. Net CO2 uptake was comparatively high, summing up to 202 gC m−2 for the four measurement months, while the Bowen ratio was seasonally stable at 28 %. The ecosystem turned into a net CO2 source during several front passage events in June and July. The periods of heavy rain helped keep the water table at a sustainably high level, preventing a usual drawdown in summer. However, because of the cloudy and rainy weather, the observed fluxes might rather represent the special weather conditions of 2015 than their typical magnitudes.

  13. Management of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramkishen S. Rajan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia over the decade 1999–2009. It finds that while Asia is home to a wide array of exchange rate regimes, there are signs of gradual movement toward somewhat greater exchange rate flexibility in many of the regional countries. There appears to be evidence of an apparent “fear of appreciation” which is manifested in asymmetric exchange rate intervention—i.e., a willingness to allow depreciations but reluctance to allow appreciations. This policy of effective exchange rate undervaluation is rather unorthodox from a neoclassical sense, but is consistent with a development policy centered on suppressing the price of non-tradable goods relative to tradables (i.e., real exchange rate undervaluation.

  14. Forecasting Foreign Currency Exchange Rates for Air Force Budgeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    this thesis: the Federal Reserve Foreign Exchange Rate – H.10, the Global Insight forecasts, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as taken through... Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group although we did not have access to their historical data. The ideal data set would have each countries data (whether

  15. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices...... for impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component....

  16. Productive Government Purchases and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Parantap; Kollmann, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Empirical research documents that an exogenous rise in government purchases in a given country triggers a depreciation of its real exchange rate. This raises an important puzzle, as standard macro theories predict an appreciation of the real exchange rate. We argue that this prediction reflects the assumption that government purchases are unproductive. Using a simple model, we show that the real exchange rate may depreciate in response to a rise in government purchases, if those purchases inc...

  17. Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Investment in Asean Economies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lily, Jaratin; Kogid, Mori; Mulok, Dullah; Thien Sang, Lim; Asid, Rozilee

    2014-01-01

    .... This paper empirically analyses the exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI) relationship using annual data on ASEAN economies, that is, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore...

  18. Pricing-to-Market, the Interest-Rate Rule, and the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Maurice Obstfeld

    2006-01-01

    Even when the exchange-rate plays no expenditure-switching role, countries may wish to have flexible exchange rates in order to free the domestic interest rate as a stabilization tool. In a setting with nontraded goods, exchange-rate movements may also enhance international risk sharing.

  19. Investigating the effects of liquidity and exchange rate on Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younos Vakil Alroaia

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of two macroeconomic factors; namely exchange rate and liquidity on stock index. The proposed study was applied in Iran and on major index of Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2001-2011. They reported that the currency exchange maintained negative impact on stock exchange for the period of investigation. This is due to the fact that when currency devalued, working capital decreases and firms did not enough money to purchase raw materials, pay wages, etc. In addition, liquidity marinated a direct and positive relationship with exchange index. However, the impact of liquidity seems to be bigger than currency exchange.

  20. The anomalous forward premium of EUR/RSD exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Theoretically, exchange rate fluctuations should be positively related to interest-rate differential. This paper empirically examines whether such a relationship holds between EUR/RSD exchange rate and the corresponding interbank interest rates. Estimates on daily data between 2008 and 2015 obtained from a linear regression model indicate that this relationship is in fact negative, consistent with the forward premium anomaly. The result persists over different time horizons. The exchange-rate predictability builds over time. The uncovered interest-rate parity does not hold.

  1. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  2. exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eyerusalem

    (1) Supply shocks are identified from the dynamics of oil price inflation denominated in the .... except oil prices. The exchange rate is ordered third followed by domestic prices which are ordered according to the distribution chain (i.e. MPI, WPI, and CPI). ..... Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan.

  3. EMU, Monetary Policy Interactions and Exchange Rate Stability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A.D. Cavelaars

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThis memorandum discusses the possible impact of a monetary union in Europe on transatlantic exchange rate stability. EMU leads to the elimination of coordination failures within the euro area. Whether this translates into more stable exchange rates, depends on the origin of the shock.

  4. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-10-07

    Oct 7, 2008 ... Abstract. This article examines the effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The investigation covers the period between. 1970 and 2005. Exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty were estimated using the GARCH model. Estimation results ...

  5. Exchange rates, petroleum prices and price determination in Sierra ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study determined the effects of monetary environment, exchange rate movement and petroleum prices on domestic prices in Sierra Leone by estimating a hybrid model of inflation. The empirical results showed that petroleum product prices, exchange rate as well as monetary factors determined inflation in Sierra Leone ...

  6. Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate on theNigeria External sector (the balance of payments position) using theOrdinary Least Square (OLS) method of estimation for data covering theperiod between 1970 and 2008. We found that exchange rate has asignificant impact on the balance of payments ...

  7. 9Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    an exchange rate is described as overvalued or undervalued when it appreciates over or depreciates under its equilibrium level – both situations refer to a misalignment. Exchange rate overvaluation can damage the potential economic growth of a country through foreign currency shortage, large current account deficits and ...

  8. Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Substitution and Monetary Policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article analyses the implications of currency substitution and exchange rate volatility for monetary policy in Nigeria. It adopts the unrestricted portfolio balance model of currency substitution, incorporating exchange rate volatility within the framework of the Vector Error Correction (VEC) technique. Results from both ...

  9. The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Nigeria | Ajao ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The naira exchange rate depreciation and volatility is among the vast macroeconomic maladjustments which have unfolded in the Nigerian economy in the recent past. This paper therefore, investigates the determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Nigeria from 1981 through 2008. Having obtained the volatility of ...

  10. Exchange Rate Passthrough to Import and Consumer Prices ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The fact that Ethiopia adopted managed floating exchange rate policy since 1992 as well as various trade reform measures taken makes the country's import and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Thus, the study investigates the degree of ERPT to import and consumer prices in ...

  11. Multiple independent constraints help resolve net ecosystem carbon exchange under nutrient limitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, P. E.; Metcalfe, D.; Oren, R.; Ricciuto, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    The magnitude, spatial distribution, and variability of land net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) are important determinants of the trajectory of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Independent observational constraints provide important clues regarding NEE and its component fluxes, with information available at multiple spatial scales: from cells, to leaves, to entire organisms and collections of organisms, to complex landscapes and up to continental and global scales. Experimental manipulations, ecosystem observations, and process modeling all suggest that the components of NEE (photosynthetic gains, and respiration and other losses) are controlled in part by the availability of mineral nutrients, and that nutrient limitation is a common condition in many biomes. Experimental and observational constraints at different spatial scales provide a complex and sometimes puzzling picture of the nature and degree of influence of nutrient availability on carbon cycle processes. Photosynthetic rates assessed at the cellular and leaf scales are often higher than the observed accumulation of carbon in plant and soil pools would suggest. We infer that a down-regulation process intervenes between carbon uptake and plant growth under conditions of nutrient limitation, and several down-regulation mechanisms have been hypothesized and tested. A recent evaluation of two alternative hypotheses for down-regulation in the light of whole-plant level flux estimates indicates that some plants take up and store extra carbon, releasing it to the environment again on short time scales. The mechanism of release, either as additional autotrophic respiration or as exudation belowground is unclear, but has important consequences for long-term ecosystem state and response to climate change signals. Global-scale constraints from atmospheric concentration and isotopic composition data help to resolve this question, ultimately focusing attention on land use fluxes as the most uncertain

  12. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... prices and if the latter are exogenous to the exchange rate dynamics. In our view, however, commodity prices are essentially financial asset prices that are set in a forward-looking way, exactly like exchange rates. If both the exchange rate and the commodity prices are based on discounted future...... of commodity prices. Cross-predictability, in contrast, seems to be only minor at best, not robust to plausible variations in the test design, and bi-directional rather than one-directional. We show to what extent the difference between Chen et al’s empirical findings and ours is due to the presence of time...

  13. Borders and Nominal Exchange Rates in Risk-Sharing

    OpenAIRE

    Devereux, Michael B; Viktoria V. Hnatkovska

    2013-01-01

    Models of risk-sharing predict that relative consumption growth rates across locations should be positively related to real exchange rate growth rates across the same areas. We investigate this hypothesis using a new multi-country and multi-regional data set. Within countries, we find evidence for risk-sharing: episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation. Across countries however, the association is reversed: relative cons...

  14. The impact of exchange rate volatility on emerging market exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Khosa

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: High exchange rate volatility has implications for business and policy decisions and exchange rate movements are important in debates around trade and trade policies. Research purpose: The purpose of the research was to determine the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in emerging markets. Motivation for the study: A lack of clarity in literature regarding this relationship increases the risk of improper planning by export organisations as well as implementing suboptimal economic policies. Research design, approach and method: This research analysed the effect of exchange rate volatility on emerging market exports using a sample of nine emerging countries from 1995 to 2010. Panel data analysis was conducted. Volatility was measured by Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity and conventional standard deviation in order to determine if the instrument of volatility used influenced the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports. The Pedroni residual cointegration method was used to test for panel cointegration in order to determine if there was a long-run relationship. Main findings: The results showed that exchange rate volatility had a significant negative effect on the performance of exports, regardless of the measure of volatility used. It was also evident that a long-run relationship did exist. Practical/managerial implications: The study concluded that the policy mix that will reduce exchange rate volatility (such as managed exchange rate regimes and relatively competitive exchange rates were essential for emerging markets in order to sustain their exports performance. Contribution/value-add: This research provided policy makers of emerging market economies with new evidence pertaining to the relationship between exchange rate volatility and the performance of exports. This research contributed to the existing knowledge on the topic and provides a base for future

  15. International Risk-Sharing and the Exchange Rate: Re-evaluating the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Devereux, Michael B

    2001-01-01

    A classic argument for flexible exchange rates is that the exchange rate plays a ‘shock-absorber' role in an open economy hit by country specific shocks. This Paper presents a sharp counterexample to this argument within a very simple open economy model. Countries are subject to unpredictable shocks to world demand for their goods. Efficient adjustment is prevented, both by sticky nominal wages and by the absence of a market for hedging consumption risk across countries. A flexible exchange r...

  16. Net ecosystem exchange in a sedge-sphagnum fen at the South of West Siberia, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyukarev, Egor

    2017-04-01

    The model of net ecosystem exchange was used to study the influence of different environmental factors and to calculate daily and growing season carbon budget for minerotrophic fen at South of West Siberia, Russia. Minerotrophic sedge-sphagnum fen occupies the central part of the Bakcharskoe bog. The model uses air and soil temperature, incoming photosynthetically active radiation, and leaf area index as the explanatory factors for gross primary production, heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration. The model coefficients were calibrated using data collected by automated soil CO2 flux system with clear long-term chamber. The studied ecosystem is a sink of carbon according to modelling and observation results. This study was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Researches (grant numbers 16-07-01205 and 16-45-700562.

  17. Consumption Risk-Sharing and the Real Exchange Rate: Why does the Nominal Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?

    OpenAIRE

    Devereux, Michael B; Viktoria Hnatkovska

    2011-01-01

    A basic prediction of effcient risk-sharing is that relative consumption growth rates across countries or regions should be positively related to real exchange rate growth rates across the same areas. We investigate this hypothesis, employing a newly constructed multi-country and multi-regional data set. Within countries, we find signifcant evidence for risk sharing: episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation. Across coun...

  18. How do land management practices affect net ecosystem CO2 exchange of an invasive plant infestation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnentag, O.; Detto, M.; Runkle, B.; Kelly, M.; Baldocchi, D. D.

    2009-12-01

    Ecosystem gas and energy exchanges of invasive plant infestations under different land management practices have been subject of few studies and thus little is known. Our goal is to characterize seasonal changes in net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) through the processes of photosynthesis (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) of a grassland used as pasture yet infested by perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) in California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. We analyze eddy-covariance supported by environmental and canopy-scale hyperspectral reflectance measurements acquired in 2007-2009. Our study covers three summer drought periods with slightly different land management practices. Over the study period the site was subject to year-round grazing, and in 2008 the site was additionally mowed. Specific questions we address are a) how does pepperweed flowering affect GEP, b) does a mowing event affect NEE mainly through GEP or Reco, and c) can the combined effects of phenology and mowing on pepperweed NEE potentially be tracked using routinely applied remote sensing techniques? Preliminary results indicate that pepperweed flowering drastically decreases photosynthetic CO2 uptake due to shading by the dense arrangement of white flowers at the canopy top, causing the infestation to be almost CO2 neutral. In contrast, mowing causes the infestation to act as moderate net CO2 sink, mainly due to increased CO2 uptake during regrowth. We demonstrate that spectral regions other than commonly-used red and near-infrared might be more promising for pepperweed monitoring because of its spectral uniqueness during the flowering phase. Our results have important implications for land-use land-cover (LULC) change studies when biological invasions and their management alter ecosystem structure and functioning but not necessarily the respective LULC class.

  19. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  20. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  1. EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezsi Eva

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

  2. Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

  3. Impact of cloudiness on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide in different types of forest ecosystems in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, M.; Yu, G.-R.; Zhang, L.-M.; Sun, X.-M.; Wen, X.-F.; Han, S.-J.; Yan, J.-H.

    2010-02-01

    Clouds can significantly affect carbon exchange process between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing the quantity and quality of solar radiation received by ecosystem's surface and other environmental factors. In this study, we analyzed the effects of cloudiness on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) in a temperate broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest at Changbaishan (CBS) and a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest at Dinghushan (DHS), based on the flux data obtained during June-August from 2003 to 2006. The results showed that the response of NEE of forest ecosystems to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) differed under clear skies and cloudy skies. Compared with clear skies, the light-saturated maximum photosynthetic rate (Pec,max) at CBS under cloudy skies during mid-growing season (from June to August) increased by 34%, 25%, 4% and 11% in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. In contrast, Pec,max of the forest ecosystem at DHS was higher under clear skies than under cloudy skies from 2004 to 2006. When the clearness index (kt) ranged between 0.4 and 0.6, the NEE reached its maximum at both CBS and DHS. However, the NEE decreased more dramatically at CBS than at DHS when kt exceeded 0.6. The results indicate that cloudy sky conditions are beneficial to net carbon uptake in the temperate forest ecosystem and the subtropical forest ecosystem. Under clear skies, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and air temperature increased due to strong light. These environmental conditions led to greater decrease in gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) and greater increase in ecosystem respiration (Re) at CBS than at DHS. As a result, clear sky conditions caused more reduction of NEE in the temperate forest ecosystem than in the subtropical forest ecosystem. The response of NEE of different forest ecosystems to the changes in cloudiness is an important factor that should be included in evaluating regional carbon budgets under climate change

  4. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  5. Stock Market Returns and Exchange Rates in Botswana | Lesotho ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates the effect of bilateral exchange rates on stock market returns in the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) measured by the domestic company index (DCI). To examine whether this effect exists or not, Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, Impulse ...

  6. Analysing net CO2 exchanges over an arable crop across multiple scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blei, Emanuel; Toet, Sylvia; Revill, Andrew; Solis Parejo, Jose; Keane, Ben; Vallack, Harry; Stockdale, James; Ineson, Phil; Levy, Pete; Skiba, Ute; Drewer, Julia; Famulari, Daniela; Williams, Mathew

    2015-04-01

    There is a critical need to better understand and up-scale greenhouse gas fluxes from agricultural activities to support adaptation and mitigation activities at national scales. A major unknown is the intrinsic scale of variability in fluxes from chamber to field scales. This variation is linked to heterogeneity in management, soils and microclimate. We made greenhouse gas fluxes measurements on a commercially operated rapeseed-oil field in the east of England for a month from the start of the growing season until the second fertiliser application (18th March to 16th April 2014). Our methods included using (1) sporadic box chamber measurements of light response curves of CO2 exchanges; (2) a novel automated cable-operated chamber system (SkyLine) developed by the University of York to measure CO2 fluxes continuously from 18 chambers in the field; (3) an Eddy covariance system measuring CO2 fluxes from a larger area on another part of the same field. For each data set a simple model resolving gross primary production and ecosystem respiration, and using LAI, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and air temperature as drivers, was tuned to estimate net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for rapeseed oil. We assess the model performance and parameter estimates across the three methods and discuss the implications for scaling fluxes and correcting biases in upscaling.

  7. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  8. Regional Atmospheric CO2 Inversion Reveals Seasonal and Geographic Differences in Amazon Net Biome Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alden, Caroline B.; Miller, John B.; Gatti, Luciana V.; Gloor, Manuel M.; Guan, Kaiyu; Michalak, Anna M.; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid; Touma, Danielle; Andrews, Arlyn; Basso, Luana G.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere (NBE), which represents nonfire carbon fluxes into and out of biomass and soils. Subannual and sub-Basin Amazon NBE estimates have relied heavily on process-based biosphere models, despite lack of model agreement with plot-scale observations. We present a new analysis of airborne measurements that reveals monthly, regional-scale (Approx.1-8 x 10(exp -6) km2) NBE variations. We develop a regional atmospheric CO2 inversion that provides the first analysis of geographic and temporal variability in Amazon biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange and that is minimally influenced by biosphere model-based first guesses of seasonal and annual mean fluxes. We find little evidence for a clear seasonal cycle in Amazon NBE but do find NBE sensitivity to aberrations from long-term mean climate. In particular, we observe increased NBE (more carbon emitted to the atmosphere) associated with heat and drought in 2010, and correlations between wet season NBE and precipitation (negative correlation) and temperature (positive correlation). In the eastern Amazon, pulses of increased NBE persisted through 2011, suggesting legacy effects of 2010 heat and drought. We also identify regional differences in postdrought NBE that appear related to long-term water availability. We examine satellite proxies and find evidence for higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during a pulse of increased carbon uptake in 2011, and lower GPP during a period of increased NBE in the 2010 dry season drought, but links between GPP and NBE changes are not conclusive. These results provide novel evidence of NBE sensitivity to short-term temperature and moisture extremes in the Amazon, where monthly and sub

  9. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klára Plecitá

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998. In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

  10. Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Waheed

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2, nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

  11. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin: e0133678

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jeffrey Chu; Saralees Nadarajah; Stephen Chan

    2015-01-01

      Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar...

  12. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  13. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  14. Exchange rate movements and export market dynamics: evidence from China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xiaobing Huang

    2017-01-01

    This paper highlights the relationship between foreign exchange rate fluctuations and firms' export market dynamics using a Chinese firm-level production data and a firm-level trade data over the period of 2000-2006...

  15. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  16. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  17. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  18. The effect of real exchange rate on unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Zahra Bakhshi; Mehrzad Ebrahimi

    2016-01-01

    Unemployment is one of the problems that global economics, especially the economy of developing countries such as Iran is faced with. Therefore, there have been many studies to investigate the variables which affect unemployment in macroeconomics. Considering exchange rate volatility in recent years which have affected most of major variables of economy in Iran, this study tried to investigate the relationship between exchange rate and unemployment in Iran using the annual data of 30 years (f...

  19. International Capital Markets and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS

    OpenAIRE

    Gunther Schnabl

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the rationale for dollar and euro pegging in Russia and the CIS. We consider macroeconomic stabilization and transaction costs for international trade as rationales for pegging to the euro. Dollarization of international assets and liabilities are examined as determinants of exchange rate stabilization against the dollar. The impact of network externalities from a common anchor for all CIS countries is explored. Tests on de facto exchange rate stabilization reveal th...

  20. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  1. Modelling the limits on the response of net carbon exchange to fertilization in a south-eastern pine forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chun-Tai. Lai; G. Katul; J. Butnor; M. Siqueira; D. Ellsworth; C. Maier; Kurt Johnsen; S. Mickeand; R. Oren

    2002-01-01

    Using a combination of model simulations and detailed measurements at a hierarchy of scales conducted at a sandhills forest site, the effect of fertilization on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its components in 6-year-old Pinus taeda stands was quantified. The detailed measurements, collected over a 20-d period in September and October, included gas...

  2. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    relative to that of the USA. Estimates of 4 a and 5 a are expected to be positive, indicating a depreciation of the kwacha due to an increase in the Zambian interest rate and inflation rate respectively. Data and methodology. Data. 1Empirical studies investigating the exchange rate overshooting under the ARDL methodology ...

  3. Net ecosystem exchange from two vegetation communities in Coppermine Peninsula, Maritime Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomazini, André; Francelino, Márcio; Pereira, Antônio; Schünemann, Adriano; Mendonça, Eduardo Sá; Michel, Roberto; Schaefer, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Antarctic vegetation frequently changes its constitution, size and distribution across the landscape, playing a key role on the nutrient cycling. The carbon cycling and land-atmosphere exchanges under these dynamic conditions remains little studied. The objective of this study was to evaluate the net ecosystem exchange (NEE), based on in situ measurements from different vegetation communities in Coppermine Peninsula, Maritime Antarctica. Mosses patches cover 1.5 ha, representing one of the most important cryptogamic communities in Maritime Antarctica. Two typical vegetation communities were studied: a moss site (hereafter Site 1) and a moss/lichen site (hereafter Site 2). Site 1 represents a low lying marine terrace (20 m asl), highly influenced by ice/snow/permafrost melting from the uplands, mainly constituted by Sanionia uncinata (Hedw.) Loeske, forming a dense carpet with 3-7 cm thickness. Site 2 is located in an elevated basalt ridge (29 m a.s.l.), under local influence of permafrost within 30 cm depth. Vegetation composition is varied , with a dominance of Polytrichastrum alpinum G.L. Smith, and lichens (Psoroma cinnamomeum Malme, Ochrolechia frigida (Sw.). To obtain the NEE data, we used closed automatic chamber system of CO2 exchange (LI-COR Biosciences, Lincoln, NE, USA) containing an infra-red gas analyzer (model LI-8100A), a multiplexer system (model LI-8150) and one clear chamber (model LI-8100-104C). Three PVC soil collars of 20 cm diameter were placed into the soil prior measurements at each selected site (standard depth of 3 cm), spaced 2 m from each other. NEE at each point were based on a single measurement over 1.5 min, and the concentrations of CO2 were determined at 3 sec intervals to determinate the current flux of CO2. Mean values of NEE were obtained from 08th (00:00 h) to January 22th, 2016 (12:00 h). From January 08th to 22th, mean values of NEE were -0.54 (±0.05) μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 in Site 1 and -0.07 (±0.02) μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 in Site 2

  4. Capital Controls and the Real Exchange Rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1990-01-01

    Capital import taxes lower (raise) world (home) interest rates. This shifts home expenditure from the present to the future and foreign expenditure from the future to today. With identical home and foreign expenditure patterns, the change in the composition of world expenditure has no effects on

  5. Comparing the Net Ecosystem Exchange of Two Cropping Systems for Dairy Feed Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulaiman, M. F.; Wagner-Riddle, C.; Brown, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    A three-year study was conducted from 2012 to 2014 to determine the net CO2 fluxes from corn and hay, the two main feed crops used in dairy production. The aim of this study is to better understand the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in annual and perennial cropping systems used in dairy production to benefit greenhouse gas emission model developments and the life cycle analysis of dairy production. The study was conducted on two 4-ha plots where one plot was a 5-year old hayfield and the other plot was planted in a continuous cycle corn. All plots were continuously monitored using the flux-gradient method deployed with a tunable diode laser trace gas analyzer and sonic anemometers. All plots received dairy manure as fertilizer applied according to common practice. The cumulative NEE for the three years of the study was -873.15 g C m-2 for corn and -409.36 g C m-2 for hay. Differences in respiration between the two cropping systems was found to be the larger factor compared to differences in gross ecosystem production (GEP) that resulted in the contrasting cumulative NEE where cumulative respiration for the three years for hay was 3094.23 g C m-2 as opposed to 2078.11 g C m-2 for corn. Cumulative GEP for the three years was 3503.60 and 2951.31 g C m-2 for hay and corn respectively. Inter-annual and inter-crop variability of the NEE, GEP and respiration will be discussed in relation to biomass production, climatic conditions and crop physiological characteristics.

  6. [Net CO2 exchange and carbon isotope flux in Acacia mangium plantation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Lu-Liu; Sun, Gu-Chou; Zhao, Ping; Cai, Xi-An; Zeng, Xiao-Ping; Wang, Quan

    2009-11-01

    By using stable carbon isotope technique, the leaf-level 13C discrimination was integrated to canopy-scale photosynthetic discrimination (Deltacanopy) through weighted the net CO2 assimilation (Anet) of sunlit and shaded leaves and the stand leaf area index (L) in an A. mangium plantation, and the carbon isotope fluxes from photosynthesis and respiration as well as their net exchange flux were obtained. There was an obvious diurnal variation in Deltacanopy, being lower at dawn and at noon time (18.47 per thousand and 19.87 per thousand, respectively) and the highest (21.21 per thousand) at dusk. From the end of November to next May, the Deltacanopy had an increasing trend, with an annual average of (20.37 +/- 0.29) per thousand. The carbon isotope ratios of CO2 from autotrophic respiration (excluding daytime foliar respiration) and heterotrophic respiration were respectively (- 28.70 +/- 0.75) per thousand and (- 26.75 +/- 1.3) per thousand in average. The delta13 C of nighttime ecosystem-respired CO2 in May was the lowest (-30.14 per thousand), while that in November was the highest (-28.01 per thousand). The carbon isotope flux of CO2 between A. mangium forest and atmosphere showed a midday peak of 178.5 and 217 micromol x m(-2) x s(-1) x per thousand in May and July, with the daily average of 638.4 and 873.2 micromol x m(-2) x s(-1) x per thousand, respectively. The carbon isotope flux of CO2 absorbed by canopy leaves was 1.6-2.5 times higher than that of CO2 emitted from respiration, suggesting that a large sum of CO2 was absorbed by A. mangium, which decreased the atmospheric CO2 concentration and improved the environment.

  7. North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A.W.; Andres, R.J.; Davis, K.J.; Hafer, M.; Hayes, D.J.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; de Jong, Bernardus; Kurz, W.A.; McGuire, A. David; Vargas, Rodrigo I.; Wei, Y.; West, Tristram O.; Woodall, Christopher W.

    2015-01-01

    Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from −890 to −280 Tg C yr−1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are −472 ± 281 Tg C yr−1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and −360 Tg C yr−1 (with an interquartile range of −496 to −337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr−1 and assuming the estimate of −472 Tg C yr−1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was

  8. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    OpenAIRE

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-01-01

    Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action ...

  9. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  10. Exchange Rate Instability and Sectoral Exports: Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Haseeb

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Exports of a country is one of the main factors indicating economic health of a country and fluctuating exchange rates and relative price can significantly affect the level of exports and it is an alarming situation for a country when its exports are affected by exchange rate volatility. Impact of exchange rate volatility and relative price on trade has been a heated debate in the field of finance and most of work has been done on aggregate and bilateral trade. Few researches are found on product basis especially in the scenario of Pakistan. This research will provide an overview of the exports of 13 different products from Pakistan. Secondary data is used to analyze the impact of exchange rate instability on the exports of different products from Pakistan to all over the world. Significance of the study depends on the right choice of estimation method. We use auto regressive distributive lags (ARDL method to check the relationship of two main variables. Glass, meat and paper & board products show that relative price affects negatively to exports so Government should make policies to strengthen the exports of these three products. Government can provide subsidies on these products in order to boost up the exports and make these products competitive in international market. Under the shadow of our results we conclude that exchange rate volatility has significant negative relationship with the exports of food processing machinery, grapes, meat and petroleum products so government needs to be focused on it when exchange rate are highly instable. Iron & steel bars show short run negative impact of exchange rate however this impact is adjusted in the long run.

  11. THE CHOSEN EXCHANGE RATE AS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING THE RISKS OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attila Rozsa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The profitability of the operation of an enterprise is influenced by several factors. Beside the evolution of market supply and demand the hectic changes in exchange rates have an increasingly important role too. Since the start of the economic crisis in the autumn of 2008, changes in the exchange rate have been more and more emphasized. The article deals with methods for decreasing exchange risks of foreign currency transactions, without the need of completeness. In international trade due to the growth of the number of currency loans the significance of managing financial risks coming from the changes in exchange rates has increased. One of the most obvious tools is properly selected currency.

  12. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  13. Investigating the Effect of Soil Moisture on Net Ecosystem Exchange in Shale Hills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Z. G.; Davis, K. J.; He, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon sinks have the ability to absorb more carbon dioxide than what they emit. The terrestrial biome acts as a huge carbon sink, however, this ability is dependent on different environmental factors. This study focused on the effects of soil moisture on net ecosystem exchange(NEE) in the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory, PA. It was hypothesized that the strength of the carbon sink would grow with wetter soils. Data was collected from the eddy-covariance flux tower, a COSMOS soil moisture probe, automated soil respiration chambers and sap flow probes for May to August between the years 2011-2016. Since temperature and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR) also have an effect on carbon fluxes, these variables were isolated to properly study soil moisture and carbon fluxes. Generally, less carbon dioxide was absorbed with increasing soil moisture. Since NEE is a combination of photosynthesis and respiration, the effect of soil moisture was studied separately for each process. The sap flow data showed a decrease in activity with increasing soil moisture, hence photosynthesis was most likely reduced. Additionally, more carbon dioxide was emitted from respiration with increasing soil moisture. These findings could possibly explain why the forest at Shale Hills tends to release more carbon dioxide with increasing soil moisture.

  14. Estimating net ecosystem exchange of carbon using the normalized difference vegetation index and an ecosystem model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veroustraete, F.; Patyn, J. [Flemish Inst. for Technological Research, Boeretang (Belgium); Myneni, R.B.

    1996-10-01

    The evaluation and prediction of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global change. An operational concept for the determination of carbon fluxes for the Belgian territory is the goal of the presented study. The approach is based on the integration of remotely sensed data into ecosystem models in order to evaluate photosynthetic assimilation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Remote sensing can be developed as an operational tool to determine the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR). A review of the methodological approach of mapping fPAR dynamics at the regional scale by means of NOAA11-AVHRR/2 data for the year 1990 is given. The processing sequence from raw radiance values to fPAR is presented. An interesting aspect of incorporating remote sensing derived fPAR in ecosystem models is the potential for modeling actual as opposed to potential vegetation. Further work should prove whether the concepts presented and the assumptions made in this study are valid.

  15. Exchange Rate Policy and Liability Dollarization; An Empirical Study

    OpenAIRE

    Pelin Berkmen; Cavallo, Eduardo A.

    2007-01-01

    The paper identifies the contemporaneous relationship between exchange rate policy and liability dollarization using three different definitions of dollarization. The presence of endogeneity makes the empirical identification elusive. We use identification through heteroskedasticity to solve the endogeneity problem in the present context (Rigobon, 2003). While we find that countries with high liability dollarization (external, public, or financial) tend to be more actively involved in exchang...

  16. Football and exchange rates: empirical support for behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eker, Gulin; Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Burak

    2007-10-01

    Recently, economic theory has been expanded to incorporate emotions, which have been assumed to play an important role in financial decisions. The present study illustrates this by showing a connection between the sports performance of popular national football teams (Besiktas, Fenerbahce, and Galatasaray) and performance of the Turkish economy. Specifically, a significant positive association was found between the success of three major professional Turkish football teams and the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar. The effect of the football success of several Turkish football teams on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira was examined using the simultaneous multiple regression model with predictor measures of wins, losses, and ties for different combinations of teams to predict the depreciation rate of the Turkish lira between the years 1987 and 2003. Wins by Turkish football teams against foreign (non-Turkish) rivals increased with exchange rate depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar.

  17. Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, John A.; Dahl, Christian Møller; Osler, Carol L.

    Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information is valuable to us as scientists since, like evidence of macroeconomic regularities, it can provide critical guidance...... for designing exchange-rate models. This paper presents an optimizing model of short-run exchange-rate dynamics consistent with both the micro evidence and the macro evidence, the first such model of which we are aware. With respect to microeconomics, the model is consistent with the institutional structure...... of currency markets, it accurately reflects the constraints and objectives faced by the major participants, and it fits key stylized facts concerning returns and order flow. With respect to macroeconomics, the model is consistent with most of the major puzzles that have emerged under floating rates....

  18. Partitioning net ecosystem carbon exchange into net assimilation and respiration using 13CO2 measurements: A cost-effective sampling strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    OgéE, J.; Peylin, P.; Ciais, P.; Bariac, T.; Brunet, Y.; Berbigier, P.; Roche, C.; Richard, P.; Bardoux, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.

    2003-06-01

    The current emphasis on global climate studies has led the scientific community to set up a number of sites for measuring the long-term biosphere-atmosphere net CO2 exchange (net ecosystem exchange, NEE). Partitioning this flux into its elementary components, net assimilation (FA), and respiration (FR), remains necessary in order to get a better understanding of biosphere functioning and design better surface exchange models. Noting that FR and FA have different isotopic signatures, we evaluate the potential of isotopic 13CO2 measurements in the air (combined with CO2 flux and concentration measurements) to partition NEE into FR and FA on a routine basis. The study is conducted at a temperate coniferous forest where intensive isotopic measurements in air, soil, and biomass were performed in summer 1997. The multilayer soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model MuSICA is adapted to compute 13CO2 flux and concentration profiles. Using MuSICA as a "perfect" simulator and taking advantage of the very dense spatiotemporal resolution of the isotopic data set (341 flasks over a 24-hour period) enable us to test each hypothesis and estimate the performance of the method. The partitioning works better in midafternoon when isotopic disequilibrium is strong. With only 15 flasks, i.e., two 13CO2 nighttime profiles (to estimate the isotopic signature of FR) and five daytime measurements (to perform the partitioning) we get mean daily estimates of FR and FA that agree with the model within 15-20%. However, knowledge of the mesophyll conductance seems crucial and may be a limitation to the method.

  19. Exchange rate movement and import price of Machineries in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The findings suggest that The implication of these results is that government should effectively fight inflationary pressure by implementing appropriate macroeconomic policies that can considerably tame down the level of inflation to non accelerated inflation rate of unemployment, a very sound exchange rate management ...

  20. Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model shows that relative money supplies, income levels and real interest rate differentials provide better forecasts of the naira-US dollar exchange rate. The empirical validity of our MFPM estimates is buttressed by the fact that the coefficient of the difference between the domestic and foreign money supply is close to ...

  1. The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rahel

    interest rates, domestic and foreign money supply, the exchange rate regime and central bank independence (Stancik, 2007). The degree of the impact of each of these factors varies and depends on a particular country's economic condition. Thus, the countries that are in the transition process (such as. Nigeria) are more ...

  2. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  3. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  4. Build to order and entry/exit strategies under exchange rate uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Chin-Tsai

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Under uncertainty of exchange rate, we extend the build to order production model of Lin et al. (2002 by considering the export-oriented manufacturer to make decisions to switch production location freely between domestic and foreign ones. The export-oriented manufacturer is risk neutral and has rational expectations. When we transfer the production location from domestic (foreign to foreign (domestic, and the production location transferring cost and the drift of real exchange rate are both equal to zero, then the optimal entry and exit threshold value of Cobb-Douglas production function are equal, no matter whether we use real options or net present value method. Thus export-oriented manufacturer can make decisions at the optimal transfer threshold value for transferable locations wherever the production locations are. It provides the export-oriented manufacturer with another way of thinking.

  5. Impact of cloudiness on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide in different types of forest ecosystems in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zhang

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Clouds can significantly affect carbon exchange process between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing the quantity and quality of solar radiation received by ecosystem's surface and other environmental factors. In this study, we analyzed the effects of cloudiness on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE in a temperate broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest at Changbaishan (CBS and a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest at Dinghushan (DHS, based on the flux data obtained during June–August from 2003 to 2006. The results showed that the response of NEE of forest ecosystems to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR differed under clear skies and cloudy skies. Compared with clear skies, the light-saturated maximum photosynthetic rate (Pec,max at CBS under cloudy skies during mid-growing season (from June to August increased by 34%, 25%, 4% and 11% in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. In contrast, Pec,max of the forest ecosystem at DHS was higher under clear skies than under cloudy skies from 2004 to 2006. When the clearness index (kt ranged between 0.4 and 0.6, the NEE reached its maximum at both CBS and DHS. However, the NEE decreased more dramatically at CBS than at DHS when kt exceeded 0.6. The results indicate that cloudy sky conditions are beneficial to net carbon uptake in the temperate forest ecosystem and the subtropical forest ecosystem. Under clear skies, vapor pressure deficit (VPD and air temperature increased due to strong light. These environmental conditions led to greater decrease in gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP and greater increase in ecosystem respiration (Re at CBS than at DHS. As a result, clear sky conditions caused more reduction of NEE in the temperate forest ecosystem than in the subtropical forest ecosystem. The response of NEE of different forest ecosystems to the changes in

  6. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  7. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity......,1) regression analysis is shown to further improve the detection of exposures. The success in identifying exposures for Danish non-financial companies is in contrast to earlier US studies and is relevant in a European context....

  8. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...... that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial solvency (value...

  9. Land use affects the net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its components in mountain grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, M.; Bahn, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Tappeiner, U.; Cernusca, A.

    2010-08-01

    Changes in land use and management have been strongly affecting mountain grassland, however, their effects on the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and its components have not yet been well documented. We analysed chamber-based estimates of NEE, gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R) and light use efficiency (LUE) of six mountain grasslands differing in land use and management, and thus site fertility, for the growing seasons of 2002 to 2008. The main findings of the study are that: (1) land use and management affected seasonal NEE, GPP and R, which all decreased from managed to unmanaged grasslands; (2) these changes were explained by differences in leaf area index (LAI), biomass and leaf-area-independent changes that were likely related to photosynthetic physiology; (3) diurnal variations of NEE were primarily controlled by photosynthetically active photon flux density and soil and air temperature; seasonal variations were associated with changes in LAI; (4) parameters of light response curves were generally closely related to each other, and the ratio of R at a reference temperature/ maximum GPP was nearly constant across the sites; (5) similarly to our study, maximum GPP and R for other grasslands on the globe decreased with decreasing land use intensity, while their ratio remained remarkably constant. We conclude that decreasing intensity of management and, in particular, abandonment of mountain grassland lead to a decrease in NEE and its component processes. While GPP and R are generally closely coupled during most of the growing season, GPP is more immediately and strongly affected by land management (mowing, grazing) and season. This suggests that management and growing season length, as well as their possible future changes, may play an important role for the annual C balance of mountain grassland.

  10. Land use affects the net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its components in mountain grasslands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cernusca

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Changes in land use and management have been strongly affecting mountain grassland, however, their effects on the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE and its components have not yet been well documented. We analysed chamber-based estimates of NEE, gross primary productivity (GPP, ecosystem respiration (R and light use efficiency (LUE of six mountain grasslands differing in land use and management, and thus site fertility, for the growing seasons of 2002 to 2008. The main findings of the study are that: (1 land use and management affected seasonal NEE, GPP and R, which all decreased from managed to unmanaged grasslands; (2 these changes were explained by differences in leaf area index (LAI, biomass and leaf-area-independent changes that were likely related to photosynthetic physiology; (3 diurnal variations of NEE were primarily controlled by photosynthetically active photon flux density and soil and air temperature; seasonal variations were associated with changes in LAI; (4 parameters of light response curves were generally closely related to each other, and the ratio of R at a reference temperature/ maximum GPP was nearly constant across the sites; (5 similarly to our study, maximum GPP and R for other grasslands on the globe decreased with decreasing land use intensity, while their ratio remained remarkably constant. We conclude that decreasing intensity of management and, in particular, abandonment of mountain grassland lead to a decrease in NEE and its component processes. While GPP and R are generally closely coupled during most of the growing season, GPP is more immediately and strongly affected by land management (mowing, grazing and season. This suggests that management and growing season length, as well as their possible future changes, may play an important role for the annual C balance of mountain grassland.

  11. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  12. Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and carbon balance for eight temperate organic soils under agricultural management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsgaard, Lars; Görres, C.-M.; Hoffmann, Carl Christian

    2012-01-01

    This study presents the first annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and net ecosystem carbon balances (NECB) of contrasting Danish agricultural peatlands. Studies were done at eight sites representing permanent grasslands (PG) and rotational (RT) arable soils cropped to barley......) sites, NEE (mean ± standard error, SE) was 5.1 ± 0.9 and 8.6 ± 2.0 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, respectively, but with the overall lowest value observed for potato cropping (3.5 Mg C ha−1 yr−1). This was partly attributed to a short-duration vegetation period and drying of the soil especially in potato ridges. NECB...... and temperate climate zones. It was stressed that evaluation of emission factors should explicitly differentiate between data representing net C balance from a soil perspective and CO2-C balance from an atmospheric perspective. Modelling of inter-annual variability in NEE for three selected sites during a 21...

  13. Consumption Risk Sharing, the Real Exchange Rate, and Borders: Why Does the Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?

    OpenAIRE

    Viktoria Hnatkovska; Michael Devereux

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the nature of consumption risk-sharing within and across countries. A basic prediction of efficient risk sharing is that relative consumption growth rates across countries or regions should be positively related to real exchange rate growth rates across the same areas. We provide a comprehensive investigation of this hypothesis in a multi-country and multi-regional data set. Controlling for consumption comparisons across national borders, we find significant evidence of ri...

  14. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Ajaraogu | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  15. Implications of Exchange Rate Dynamics and External Reserve for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examined the impact of exchange rate dynamics and external reserve on inflation and investment in Nigeria between the period 1970 – 2009, using a combination of ordinary least squares, augmented dickey fuller unit root test and the co- integration test. The changes in external reserve had a positive ...

  16. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  17. The credibility of the European exchange rate mechanism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knot, K.H.W.; Sturm, J.E.; de Haan, J.

    Using a panel data approach and three different credibility measures, we argue that unemployment, inflation, and budget deficits in participating countries have affected the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS. In contrast to most previous research, which focuses upon the

  18. Volatility Analysis of Exchange Rate of Emerging Economies: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study is to analyze the volatility of exchange rates of the currencies of the five East African Community (EAC) countries. Time series modeling is applied to the data of these countries. Various models were fitted and compared using Maximum Likelihood approach in order to select the best fitting model for each ...

  19. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dornbusch's exchange rate overshooting hypothesis has guided monetary policy conduct for many years, despite the fact that empirical evidence on its validity is mixed. This study re-examines the validity of the overshooting hypothesis by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure. Specifi cally, the study ...

  20. Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    stock market performance (Adebiyi et al., 2009). This study contributed to the study of linkage between crude oil price movements, exchange rate behaviour and stock market performance of African oil-exporting countries. The increased integration of financial markets in the world today provides investors with new ways to ...

  1. Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study employed a multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that uses the Granger causality test and generalized variance decomposition analysis to study the relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rate and stock market performance in Nigeria from January 1995 to December 2014. As expected ...

  2. Neural network analysis of varying trends in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Kaashoek (Johan); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper neural networks are fitted to the real exchange rates of seven industrialized countries. The size and topology of the used networks is found by reducing the size of the network through the use of multiple correlation coefficients, principal component analysis of residuals

  3. The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work examined and evaluated in comparative terms, the effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural export commodities as well as on the total agricultural export commodities in the Pre-SAP (1972-1985) and the SAP era (1986-2010) in Nigeria. Based on the data collected from Central Bank of Nigeria ...

  4. The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Chin; Law, Chee-Hong

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of trade openness on Malaysian exchange rate. The findings show that most of the variables are statistically significant and carried the expected signs. As predicted by the theory, the rise of the income level and stock market index in Malaysia will lead to the appreciation of domestic currency. On the other hand, the increase in trade openness and interest rate can lead to depreciation of Malaysian Ringgit. In addition, the results suggested that a rise in ...

  5. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Radiochemistry

    2016-11-01

    Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO{sub 3}) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of {sup 14}C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  6. Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Entropy Optimized Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijian He

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate is one of the key variables in the international economics and international trade. Its movement constitutes one of the most important dynamic systems, characterized by nonlinear behaviors. It becomes more volatile and sensitive to increasingly diversified influencing factors with higher level of deregulation and global integration worldwide. Facing the increasingly diversified and more integrated market environment, the forecasting model in the exchange markets needs to address the individual and interdependent heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose the heterogeneous market hypothesis- (HMH- based exchange rate modeling methodology to model the micromarket structure. Then we further propose the entropy optimized wavelet-based forecasting algorithm under the proposed methodology to forecast the exchange rate movement. The multivariate wavelet denoising algorithm is used to separate and extract the underlying data components with distinct features, which are modeled with multivariate time series models of different specifications and parameters. The maximum entropy is introduced to select the best basis and model parameters to construct the most effective forecasting algorithm. Empirical studies in both Chinese and European markets have been conducted to confirm the significant performance improvement when the proposed model is tested against the benchmark models.

  7. Exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the Portuguese target zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Portugal Duarte António

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyse the exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the participation of the Portuguese economy in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM of the European Monetary System (EMS based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. Portugal adopted this exchange rate target zone from April 6 1992 until December 31 1998. During this period, the exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Paul Krugman (1991 model. The analysis of the data also shows that exchange rate volatility tended to increase as the exchange rate approached the edges of the band, contrary to the predictions of the basic model. Interest rate differential volatility, on the other hand, seemed to behave in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests an increase in the credibility of monetary policy, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of a target zone has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation in the European Monetary Union (EMU. The Portuguese integration process should therefore be considered as an example to be followed by other small open economies in transition to the euro area.

  8. Direct and indirect effects of climatic variations on the interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange across terrestrial ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjiong Shao

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Climatic variables not only directly affect the interannual variability (IAV in net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE but also indirectly drive it by changing the physiological parameters. Identifying these direct and indirect paths can reveal the underlying mechanisms of carbon (C dynamics. In this study, we applied a path analysis using flux data from 65 sites to quantify the direct and indirect climatic effects on IAV in NEE and to evaluate the potential relationships among the climatic variables and physiological parameters that represent physiology and phenology of ecosystems. We found that the maximum photosynthetic rate was the most important factor for the IAV in gross primary productivity (GPP, which was mainly induced by the variation in vapour pressure deficit. For ecosystem respiration (RE, the most important drivers were GPP and the reference respiratory rate. The biome type regulated the direct and indirect paths, with distinctive differences between forests and non-forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests, and between grasslands and croplands. Different paths were also found among wet, moist and dry ecosystems. However, the climatic variables can only partly explain the IAV in physiological parameters, suggesting that the latter may also result from other biotic and disturbance factors. In addition, the climatic variables related to NEE were not necessarily the same as those related to GPP and RE, indicating the emerging difficulty encountered when studying the IAV in NEE. Overall, our results highlight the contribution of certain physiological parameters to the IAV in C fluxes and the importance of biome type and multi-year water conditions, which should receive more attention in future experimental and modelling research.

  9. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action generated macro - financial stability in terms of inflation and price fluctuation. However, in terms of microeconomic aspects, the unilateral adaptation of Euro as the official currency of Kosovo failed to provide microeconomic advantages such as to export stimulation, and so forth. The main exchange rate regime systems were discussed focusing in their advantages and disadvantages, and it was concluded that there is no commonly accepted theory regarding the optimality of exchange rate regimes. In addition, the global financial crisis impact in the financial system of Kosovo is also discussed and it was found that negative impacts of global financial crisis were moderate and indirect.

  10. How Is the RMB Exchange Rate Misaligned? A Recent Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER to China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuming Cui

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to estimate the degree of RMB misalignment from its equilibrium exchange rate by applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach. We employ monthly data with reference to China's top 20 trading partners covering the period of 1997 to 2012. We find that the RMB was slightly overvalued before 2001 and significantly undervalued by up to 20 per cent in the end of 2006. There is evidence showing that the RMB approached to its equilibrium level from 2007 to 2008. However, the global financial crisis interrupted the trend of declining misalignment of RMB exchange rate. The RMB's total misalignment increased to around 25 per cent in the mid-2011 mainly because the RMB was re-pegged to the US dollar and some currencies of China's main trading partners depreciated during the period of crisis. More recently, the degree of RMB misalignment slightly declined since 2012 when the RMB proceeded to appreciate and China's ratio of current account surplus to GDP dropped considerably. Our findings prove that there is a trend of the RMB approaching to its equilibrium exchange rate since 2007 except for the period of crisis.

  11. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration of a sphagnum mire: field measurements and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, Alexander; Volkova, Elena; Karataeva, Tatiana; Zatsarinnaya, Dina; Novenko, Elena

    2014-05-01

    The spatial and temporal variability of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) of a karst-hole sphagnum peat mire situated at the boundary between broad-leaved and forest-steppe zones in the central part of European Russia (54.06N, 37.59E, 260 m a.s.l.) was described using results of field measurements and simulations with Mixfor-3D model. The area of the mire is about 1.2 ha and it is surrounded by a broadleaved forest stand. It is a typical peat mire according to water and mineral supply as well as to vegetation composition. The vegetation of the peripheral parts of the mire is typical eutrophic whereas the vegetation in its central part is represented by meso-oligothrophic plant communities. To describe the spatial variability of NEE and ET within the mire a portable measuring system consisting of a transparent ventilated chamber combined with an infrared CO2 and H2O analyzer LI-840A (Li-Cor, USA) was used. The measurements were provided along a transect from the southern peripheral part of the mire to its center under sunny clear-sky weather conditions in the period from May to September of 2012 and from May 2013 to October 2013. The chamber method was used for measurements of NEE and ET fluxes because of small size of the mire, a very uniform surrounding forest stand and the mosaic mire vegetation. All these factors promote very heterogeneous exchange conditions within the mire and make it difficult to apply, for example, an eddy covariance method that is widely used for flux measurements in the field. The results of the field measurements showed a significant spatial and temporal variability of NEE and ET that was mainly influenced by incoming solar radiation, air temperature and ground water level. During the entire growing season the central part of the mire was a sink of CO2 for the atmosphere (up to 6.8±4.2 µmol m-2 s-1 in June) whereas its peripheral part, due to strong shading by the surrounding forest, was mainly a source of

  12. Age-dependent impacts of peatland restoration on the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of blanket bogs in Northern Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hambley, Graham; Hill, Timothy; Saunders, Matthew; Arn Teh, Yit

    2015-04-01

    The Flow Country of Northern Scotland is the largest area of contiguous blanket bog in the UK covering an area in excess of 400 km2. This region is the single largest peat and soil C repository in the UK, and plays a key role in mediating regional atmospheric exchanges of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and water vapour (H2O). However, these peatlands were subject to significant afforestation in the 1980s, where large areas of blanket bog were drained and planted with Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and Lodgepole Pine (Pinus contorta), resulting in modifications to micro-topographic features, vegetation composition and soil properties such as bulk density and water holding capacity, all of which are known to influence the production and emission of key GHGs. Since the late 1990s restoration work has been undertaken to remove forest plantations and to restore the peatland areas by raising the water table, predominantly by drain and furrow blocking, in order to encourage the recolonisation of Sphagnum species. Here we report findings from an eddy covariance study of CO2 and H2O exchange from an unmanaged peatland and a chronosequence of restored peatland sites, which were felled in 1998 and 2004. Located within the Forsinard Flows National Nature Reserve in Northern Scotland, these sites are being studied to better understand the key drivers of carbon dynamics in these ecosystems and also assess the age-dependent impacts of peatland restoration on the net CO2 sink strength. Preliminary data show rates of CO2 uptake increased with time since restoration, with peak assimilation rates of -9.9 and -14.4 micro mol CO2 m-2 s-1 measured at the 10 and 16 year old restoration sites, respectively. Carbon losses through ecosystem respiration followed a similar pattern. The data collected to date indicates that while peatland restoration is actively increasing CO2 uptake at each of the sites, more long-term observational data is required to

  13. Kinetic model of mass exchange with dynamic Arrhenius transition rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios T.; Muradova, Aliki

    2016-02-01

    We study a nonlinear kinetic model of mass exchange between interacting grains. The transition rates follow the Arrhenius equation with an activation energy that depends dynamically on the grain mass. We show that the activation parameter can be absorbed in the initial conditions for the grain masses, and that the total mass is conserved. We obtain numerical solutions of the coupled, nonlinear, ordinary differential equations of mass exchange for the two-grain system, and we compare them with approximate theoretical solutions in specific neighborhoods of the phase space. Using phase plane methods, we determine that the system exhibits regimes of diffusive and growth-decay (reverse diffusion) kinetics. The equilibrium states are determined by the mass equipartition and separation nullcline curves. If the transfer rates are perturbed by white noise, numerical simulations show that the system maintains the diffusive and growth-decay regimes; however, the noise can reverse the sign of equilibrium mass difference. Finally, we present theoretical analysis and numerical simulations of a system with many interacting grains. Diffusive and growth-decay regimes are established as well, but the approach to equilibrium is considerably slower. Potential applications of the mass exchange model involve coarse-graining during sintering and wealth exchange in econophysics.

  14. Exchange rate policy, growth, and foreign trade in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gligorić Mirjana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes a hot topic: the influence of an undervalued currency on macroeconomic variables - primarily on the economic growth and trade balance of a country, but also on employment, foreign exchange reserves, competition, and living standards. It also reviews and explains the consequences of yuan undervaluation, points out the need for its appreciation, and states the negative effects that stem from this measure. Special attention is given to the problematic bilateral relations between China and the USA and the reasons why Americans are worried about the exchange rate policy that China implements. Although yuan appreciation would decrease the American foreign trade deficit, it also raises the question of further financing of the American deficit. There are also other problems that the possible appreciation would cause for the American economy, due to the effect of J-curve, passthrough, larger costs of input imported from China, etc. Therefore, Chinese foreign exchange policy is an important subject, but it is not the solution to the problems of the global economy - which have deeper roots than that. However, there is no excuse for China implementing unfair exchange rate policies, or replacing such policies with controversial protectionist policies (as some authors have suggested.

  15. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  16. Asymmetric cointegration between exchange rate and trade balance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhaji Jibrilla Aliyu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the long-run pass through of the official exchange rates into trade balance in Nigeria by means of threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction modeling. The study provides evidence for non-linear cointegration between our variables of interest. The estimated asymmetric error correction models provide new evidence for slower transmission of exchange rate depreciations into the country’s trade balance, which in turn appears to offer partial support for the Dutch disease hypothesis. This finding suggests that policy-makers cannot hope to use currency devaluation to improve the trade balance. It is recommended that policy-makers focus attention on diversification of the economy away from dependence on crude oil exports into productive manufacturing and non-oil exports, which will be vital in making the economy more competitive.

  17. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  18. Optimizing kick rate and amplitude for Paralympic swimmers via net force measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulton, Sacha K; Pyne, David; Burkett, Brendan

    2011-02-01

    Kicking is a key component of freestyle swimming yet the optimum combination of kick rate and kick amplitude remains unknown. For Paralympic swimmers, with upper and lower limb disabilities, the influence of the kick plays an important role in net force production. To determine optimum kick characteristics, 12 Paralympic swimmers aged 19.8 ± 2.9 years (mean ± s) were towed at their individual peak freestyle speed. The experimental conditions were (i) a prone streamline glide for passive trials and (ii) maximal freestyle kicking in a prone streamline for active trials at different speeds and kick amplitudes. Kick rate was quantified using inertial sensor technology. Towing speed was assessed using a novel and validated dynamometer, and net force was assessed using a Kistler force-platform system. When peak speed was increased by 5%, the active force increased 24.2 ± 5.3% (90% confidence limits), while kick rate remained at approximately 150 kicks per minute. Larger amplitude kicking increased the net active force by 25.1 ± 10.6%, although kick rate decreased substantially by 13.6 ± 5.1%. Based on the current kick rate and amplitude profile adopted by Paralympic swimmers, these characteristics are appropriate for optimizing net force.

  19. Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Krugman

    1986-01-01

    It has been widely remarked that US import prices have not fully reflected movements in the exchange rate. This paper begins with an investigation of the actual extent of "pricing to market" by foreign suppliers. It shows that pricing to market is a real phenomenon, but not universal; in particular, evidence on German export prices suggests that stickiness of import prices is largely confined to machinery and transport equipment. The paper then considers a number of possible models. While the...

  20. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantages – to capture some of the benefits of both extremes while avoiding many of the costs. However today many experts predicted that exchange rate regimes would move in a "bipolar" manner to the extremes of "hard" pegs or free floats. An increasing number of countries did announce their intent to allow greater exchange rate flexibility. But, in practice, countries had a "fear of floating ". Distinction is made among advanced, emerging and other developing countries. Emerging markets have stronger links to international capital markets than do other developing economies. Thus, while non-emerging market developing economies may gain credibility through pegging their exchange rates, emerging markets find it harder to do so and could benefit from investing in "learning to float". More advanced economies with their access to international capital market are best positioned to enjoy the benefits of flexibility. It is found that the proportion of countries adopting intermediate regimes has indeed been shrinking in favor of greater flexibility or greater fixity, especially for countries more integrated with international markets. But, there is no final conclusion on the idea that intermediate regimes will dissapear.

  1. Rate theory on water exchange in aqueous uranyl ion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dang, Liem X.; Vo, Quynh N.; Nilsson, Mikael; Nguyen, Hung D.

    2017-03-01

    We report one of the first simulations using a classical rate theory approach to predict the mechanism of the exchange process between water and aqueous uranyl ions. Using our water and ion-water polarizable force fields and molecular dynamics techniques, we computed the potentials of mean force for the uranyl ion-water pair as the function of pressures at ambient temperature. Subsequently, these simulated potentials of mean force were used to calculate rate constants using the transition rate theory; the time dependent transmission coefficients were also examined using the reactive flux method and Grote-Hynes treatments of the dynamic response of the solvent. The computed activation volumes using transition rate theory and the corrected rate constants are positive, thus the mechanism of this particular water-exchange is a dissociative process. We discuss our rate theory results and compare them with previously studies in which non-polarizable force fields were used. This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences. The calculations were carried out using computer resources provided by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences.

  2. Spatial variation in tuber depletion by swans explained by differences in net intake rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; Langevoord, O; Bevan, RM; Engelaar, KR; Klaassen, M; Mulder, RJW

    We tested whether the spatial variation in resource depletion by Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus) foraging on belowground tubers of sage pondweed (Potnmogeton pectinatus) was caused by differences in net energy intake rates. The variation in giving up densities within the confines of one lake was

  3. Spatial variation in tuber depletion by swans explained by differences in net intake rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, B.A.; Langevoord, O.; Bevan, R.M.; Engelaar, K.R.; Klaassen, M.R.J.; Mulder, R.J.W.; Van Dijk, S.

    2001-01-01

    We tested whether the spatial variation in resource depletion by Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus) foraging on belowground tubers of sage pondweed (Potnmogeton pectinatus) was caused by differences in net energy intake rates. The variation in giving up densities within the confines of one lake was

  4. Predictability of Exchange Rates in Sri Lanka: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the validity of the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka. Monthly exchange rates for four currencies during the floating exchange rate regime were used in the empirical tests. Using a battery of tests, empirical results indicate that the current values of the four exchange rates can be predicted from their past values. Further, the tests of semi-strong form efficiency indicate that exchange rate pa...

  5. Testing of empirical grounds for theoretical models of real exchange rate: research of real exchange rate between RSD and Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Petrović

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this research holds the most important determinants of real exchange rate covered by various theoretical models. The empirical testing was carried out on the real exchange rate between RSD and Euro for the period from January 2007 to December 2010, which was significantly imposed by availability of consistent time series. The research pertains to five basic model specifications and is based on the testing of time series cointegration by applying Johansen and Engle-Granger’s test. The obtained results have shown that the observed models do not have grounds in empirical data. Time series figuring in models are not cointegrated, and besides that, the estimated cointegration coefficients have signs opposite to the expected ones in large number of cases. In our opinion, the reasons for such findings can be found in the fact that used time series are quite short, i.e. they pertain to the period of only four years, as well as that prices of some significant services are still under the administrative control. Still, despite the aforementioned lacks, we think that our findings can be accepted as preliminary knowledge about the ability of the observed models to explain the dynamics of real exchange rate between RSD and Euro.

  6. Exchange Flow Rate Measurement Technique in Density Different Gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoo Fumizawa

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Buoyancy-driven exchange flows of helium-air through inclined a narrow tube was investigated. Exchange flows may occur following the opening of a window for ventilation, as well as when a pipe ruptures in a high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The experiment in this paper was carried out in a test chamber filled with helium and the flow was visualized using the smoke wire method. A high-speed camera recorded the flow behavior. The image of the flow was transferred to digital data, and the slow flow velocity, i.e. micro flow rate was measured by PIV software. Numerical simulation was carried out by the code of moving particle method with Lagrange method.

  7. Oil Prices and Interest Rates: Do They Determine the Exchange Rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, I. A.; Old, J. L.

    1986-01-01

    Argues that the relationship between the British pound sterling, interest rates, and oil prices has been overemphasized by economic commentators because they ignored a basic economic theory about the determination of the exchange rate. Provides an example and suggestions for follow up instruction. (Author/JDH)

  8. Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Yao, Y.

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses moment generating functions to provide a general framework to model international term structures and to price interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims. When moment generating functions of state variables have a closed-form formula, closed-form formulas for bond prices are

  9. INTEREST-RATE DIFFERENTIALS AND EXCHANGE-RATE POLICIES IN AUSTRIA, THE NETHERLANDS, AND BELGIUM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KNOT, K; DEHAAN, J

    In this paper, the small, but persistent interest rate differentials via-a-vis Germany which have existed in Austria, the Netherlands, and Belgium are analysed. These interest differentials may be thought of to consist of three parts: expected exchange rate movements within the band, expected

  10. North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.W. King; R.J. Andres; K J. Davis; M. Hafer; D.J. Hayes; D.N. Huntzinger; B. de Jong; W.A. Kurz; A.D. McGuire; R. Vargas; Y. Wei; T.O. West; C.W. Woodall

    2015-01-01

    Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net...

  11. Gap filling strategies for defensible annual sums of net ecosystem exchange

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Falge, E.; Baldocchi, D.; Olson, R.; Anthoni, P.; Aubinet, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Burba, G.; Ceulemans, R.; Clement, R.; Dolman, H.; Granier, A.; Gross, P.; Grünwald, T.; Hollinger, D.; Jensen, N.O.; Katul, G.; Keronen, P.; Kowalski, A.; Lai, C.T.; Law, B.E.; Meyers, T.; Moncrieff, J.; Moors, E.J.; Munger, J.W.; Pilegaard, K.; Rebmann, C.; Suyker, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Tu, K.

    2001-01-01

    Heightened awareness of global change issues within both science and political communities has increased interest in using the global network of eddy covariance flux towers to more fully understand the impacts of natural and anthropogenic phenomena on the global carbon balance. Comparisons of net

  12. Light environment alters ozone uptake per net photosynthetic rate in black cherry trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredericksen, T S; Kolb, T E; Skelly, J M; Steiner, K C; Joyce, B J; Savage, J E

    1996-05-01

    Foliar ozone uptake rates of different-sized black cherry (Prunus serotina Ehrh.) trees were compared within a deciduous forest and adjacent openings in north-central Pennsylvania during one growing season. Study trees included open-grown seedlings and saplings, forest understory seedlings and saplings, and sunlit and shaded portions of mature canopy tree crowns. Instantaneous ozone uptake rates were highest in high-light environments primarily because of higher stomatal conductances. Low ozone uptake rates of seedlings and saplings in the forest understory could be attributed partially to lower average ambient ozone concentrations compared to the canopy and open environments. Among the tree size and light combinations tested, ozone uptake rates were highest in open-grown seedlings and lowest in forest-grown seedlings. Despite lower ozone uptake rates of foliage in shaded environments, ozone uptake per net photosynthesis of foliage in shaded environments was significantly higher than that of foliage in sunlit environments because of weaker coupling between net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance in shaded environments. The potential for greater ozone injury in shaded environments as a result of greater ozone uptake per net photosynthesis is consistent with previous reports of greater ozone injury in shaded foliage than in sunlit foliage.

  13. Comparing net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange at adjacent commercial bioenergy and conventional cropping systems in Lincolnshire, United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Ross; Brooks, Milo; Evans, Jonathan; Finch, Jon; Rowe, Rebecca; Rylett, Daniel; McNamara, Niall

    2016-04-01

    The conversion of agricultural land to bioenergy plantations represents one option in the national and global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions whilst meeting future energy demand. Despite an increase in the area of (e.g. perennial) bioenergy crops in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, the biophysical and biogeochemical impacts of large scale conversion of arable and other land cover types to bioenergy cropping systems remain poorly characterised and uncertain. Here, the results of four years of eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) obtained at a commercial farm in Lincolnshire, United Kingdom (UK) are reported. CO2 flux measurements are presented and compared for arable crops (winter wheat, oilseed rape, spring barely) and plantations of the perennial biofuel crops Miscanthus x. giganteus (C4) and short rotation coppice (SRC) willow (Salix sp.,C3). Ecosystem light and temperature response functions were used to analyse and compare temporal trends and spatial variations in NEE across the three land covers. All three crops were net in situ sinks for atmospheric CO2 but were characterised by large temporal and between site variability in NEE. Environmental and biological controls driving the spatial and temporal variations in CO2 exchange processes, as well as the influences of land management, will be analysed and discussed.

  14. Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    SATO Kiyotaka; SHIMIZU Junko; Nagendra SHRESTHA; Shajuan ZHANG

    2015-01-01

    This study constructs a monthly series of industry-specific real effective exchange rates (I-REERs) based on the producer price indices of nine Asian economies from 2001 to 2014. To check the usefulness of the I-REERs as a measurement of international price competitiveness, we calculated the aggregated I-REER (Avg-I-REER) and compared it with the REER published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS-REER). We found that in some Asian economies, the Avg-I-REER exhibited different movem...

  15. Environment or development? Lifetime net CO2 exchange and control of the expression of Crassulacean acid metabolism in Mesembryanthemum crystallinum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Klaus; Holtum, Joseph A M

    2007-01-01

    The relative influence of plant age and environmental stress signals in triggering a shift from C(3) photosynthesis to Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) in the annual halophytic C(3)-CAM species Mesembryanthemum crystallinum was explored by continuously monitoring net CO(2) exchange of whole shoots from the seedling stage until seed set. Plants exposed to high salinity (400 mm NaCl) in hydroponic culture solution or grown in saline-droughted soil acquired between 11% and 24% of their carbon via net dark CO(2) uptake involving CAM. In contrast, plants grown under nonsaline, well-watered conditions were capable of completing their life cycle by operating in the C(3) mode without ever exhibiting net CO(2) uptake at night. These observations are not consistent with the widely expressed view that the induction of CAM by high salinity in M. crystallinum represents an acceleration of preprogrammed developmental processes. Rather, our study demonstrates that the induction of the CAM pathway for carbon acquisition in M. crystallinum is under environmental control.

  16. Cerebral net exchange of large neutral amino acids after lipopolysaccharide infusion in healthy humans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Ronan Mg; Taudorf, Sarah; Bailey, Damian M

    2010-01-01

    Alterations in circulating large neutral amino acids (LNAAs), leading to a decrease in the plasma ratio between branched-chain and aromatic amino acids (BCAA/AAA ratio), may be involved in sepsis-associated encephalopathy. We hypothesised that a decrease in the BCAA/AAA ratio occurs along...... with a net cerebral influx of the neurotoxic AAA phenylalanine in a human experimental model of systemic inflammation....

  17. Modelling the impact of soil Carbonic Anhydrase on the net ecosystem exchange of OCS at Harvard forest using the MuSICA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launois, Thomas; Ogée, Jérôme; Commane, Roisin; Wehr, Rchard; Meredith, Laura; Munger, Bill; Nelson, David; Saleska, Scott; Wofsy, Steve; Zahniser, Mark; Wingate, Lisa

    2016-04-01

    The exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is driven by photosynthetic uptake and respiratory loss, two fluxes currently estimated with considerable uncertainty at large scales. Model predictions indicate that these biosphere fluxes will be modified in the future as CO2 concentrations and temperatures increase; however, it still unclear to what extent. To address this challenge there is a need for better constraints on land surface model parameterisations. Additional atmospheric tracers of large-scale CO2 fluxes have been identified as potential candidates for this task. In particular carbonyl sulphide (OCS) has been proposed as a complementary tracer of gross photosynthesis over land, since OCS uptake by plants is dominated by carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity, an enzyme abundant in leaves that catalyses CO2 hydration during photosynthesis. However, although the mass budget at the ecosystem is dominated by the flux of OCS into leaves, some OCS is also exchanged between the atmosphere and the soil and this component of the budget requires constraining. In this study, we adapted the process-based isotope-enabled model MuSICA (Multi-layer Simulator of the Interactions between a vegetation Canopy and the Atmosphere) to include the transport, reaction, diffusion and production of OCS within a forested ecosystem. This model was combined with 3 years (2011-2013) of in situ measurements of OCS atmospheric concentration profiles and fluxes at the Harvard Forest (Massachussets, USA) to test hypotheses on the mechanisms responsible for CA-driven uptake by leaves and soils as well as possible OCS emissions during litter decomposition. Model simulations over the three years captured well the impact of diurnally and seasonally varying environmental conditions on the net ecosystem OCS flux. A sensitivity analysis on soil CA activity and soil OCS emission rates was also performed to quantify their impact on the vertical profiles of OCS inside the

  18. Gap filling strategies for defensible annual sums of net ecosystem exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falge, E.; Baldocchi, D.; Olson, R.

    2001-01-01

    ecosystem exchange (F-NEE) responses are being made among biome types, phenology patterns, and stress conditions. The comparisons are usually performed on annual sums of F-NEE; however, the average data coverage during a year is only 65%. Therefore, robust and consistent gap filling methods are required. We...

  19. Impact of severe dry season on net ecosystem exchange in the Neotropical rainforest of French Guiana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonal, D.; Bosc, A.; Ponton, S.; Goret, J.; Burban, B.; Gross, P.; Bonnefonds, J.M.; Elbers, J.A.; Longdoz, B.; Epron, D.; Guehl, J.; Granier, A.

    2008-01-01

    The lack of information on the ways seasonal drought modifies the CO2 exchange between Neotropical rainforest ecosystems and the atmosphere and the resulting carbon balance hinders our ability to precisely predict how these ecosystems will respond as global environmental changes force them to face

  20. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  1. Relationship Between Diurnal Changes of Net Photosynthetic Rate and Influencing Factors in Rice under Saline Sodic Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu Yang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The net photosynthetic rate of flag leaves and influencing factors under saline sodic soil conditions were investigated at the full heading stage of rice. The net photosynthetic rate of rice leaves showed a double-peak curve in a day in both non-saline sodic and saline sodic soil treatments. The first peak of the net photosynthetic rate appeared at 9:00–10:00 and 9:00 in the saline sodic and non-saline sodic soil treatments, respectively, whereas the second peak both at 14:00. The midday depression of the net photosynthetic rate always appeared regardless of non-saline sodic or saline sodic soil conditions. In addition, the net photosynthetic rate significantly decreased in all day under saline sodic conditions compared with that under non-saline sodic conditions. Some differences were observed in correlation characters between the net photosynthetic rate and all influencing factors during 9:00–13:00. Under non-saline sodic conditions, the diurnal changes of the net photosynthetic rate in a day were mainly caused by stomatal conductance, and the limitation value and the stomatal factors served as determinants; whereas under saline sodic stress, the diurnal changes of the net photosynthetic rate in a day were mainly caused by non stomatal factors including light intensity and air temperature.

  2. Particle loading rates for HVAC filters, heat exchangers, and ducts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, M S; Siegel, J A

    2008-06-01

    The rate at which airborne particulate matter deposits onto heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) components is important from both indoor air quality (IAQ) and energy perspectives. This modeling study predicts size-resolved particle mass loading rates for residential and commercial filters, heat exchangers (i.e. coils), and supply and return ducts. A parametric analysis evaluated the impact of different outdoor particle distributions, indoor emission sources, HVAC airflows, filtration efficiencies, coils, and duct system complexities. The median predicted residential and commercial loading rates were 2.97 and 130 g/m(2) month for the filter loading rates, 0.756 and 4.35 g/m(2) month for the coil loading rates, 0.0051 and 1.00 g/month for the supply duct loading rates, and 0.262 g/month for the commercial return duct loading rates. Loading rates are more dependent on outdoor particle distributions, indoor sources, HVAC operation strategy, and filtration than other considered parameters. The results presented herein, once validated, can be used to estimate filter changing and coil cleaning schedules, energy implications of filter and coil loading, and IAQ impacts associated with deposited particles. The results in this paper suggest important factors that lead to particle deposition on HVAC components in residential and commercial buildings. This knowledge informs the development and comparison of control strategies to limit particle deposition. The predicted mass loading rates allow for the assessment of pressure drop and indoor air quality consequences that result from particle mass loading onto HVAC system components.

  3. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Trifonova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of public debt?

  4. Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones

    OpenAIRE

    Robert P. Flood; Andrew K. Rose; Donald J. Mathieson

    1990-01-01

    In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System is then used to explore the importance of non-linearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. While some statistical evidence of non-linearities in conditional means of exchange rates is detected, these seem to have little economic content. ...

  5. Peptide dimerization-dissociation rates from replica exchange molecular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leahy, Cathal T.; Kells, Adam; Hummer, Gerhard; Buchete, Nicolae-Viorel; Rosta, Edina

    2017-10-01

    We show how accurate rates of formation and dissociation of peptide dimers can be calculated using direct transition counting (DTC) from replica-exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) simulations. First, continuous trajectories corresponding to system replicas evolving at different temperatures are used to assign conformational states. Second, we analyze the entire REMD data to calculate the corresponding rates at each temperature directly from the number of transition counts. Finally, we compare the kinetics extracted directly, using the DTC method, with indirect estimations based on trajectory likelihood maximization using short-time propagators and on decay rates of state autocorrelation functions. For systems with relatively low-dimensional intrinsic conformational dynamics, the DTC method is simple to implement and leads to accurate temperature-dependent rates. We apply the DTC rate-extraction method to all-atom REMD simulations of dimerization of amyloid-forming NNQQ tetrapetides in explicit water. In an assessment of the REMD sampling efficiency with respect to standard MD, we find a gain of more than a factor of two at the lowest temperature.

  6. Temporally-resolved Study of Atmosphere-lake Net CO2 Exchange at Lochaber Lake, Nova Scotia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spafford, L. A.; Risk, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Lakes are carbon gateways with immense processing capacity, acting as either sinks or sources for CO2. As climate change exacerbates weather extremes, carbon stored within permafrost and soils is liberated to water systems, altering aquatic carbon budgets and light availability for photosynthesis. The functional response of lakes to climate change is uncertain, and continuous data of lake respiration and its drivers are lacking. This study used high-frequency measurements of CO2 exchange during a growing season by a novel technique to quantify the net flux of carbon at a small deep oligotrophic lake in eastern Nova Scotia, Canada, and to examine the influence of environmental forcings. We installed 3 floating Forced Diffusion dynamic membrane chambers on the lake, coupled to a valving multiplexer and a single Vaisala GMP 343 CO2 analyzer. This low-power system sampled lake-atmosphere CO2 exchange at several points from shore every hour for over 100 days in the growing season. At the same frequency we also collected automated measurements of wind velocity, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), dissolved CO2, air and water temperature. Manual measurement campaigns measured chlorophyll `a', DOC, surface methane (CH4), and CO2 flux by manual static floating chamber to confirm the automated measurements. The lake was a net source for carbon, on average emitting 0.038 µmol CO2/m2/s or 4.967 g CO2/s over the entire lake, but we did observe significant temporal variation across diel cycles, and along with changing weather. Approximately 48 hours after every rain event, we observed an increase in littoral CO2 release by the lake. Wind speed, air temperature, and distance from shore were also drivers of variation, as the littoral zone tended to release less CO2 during the course of our study. This work shows the variable influence of environmental drivers of lake carbon flux, as well as the utility of low-power automated chambers for observing aquatic net CO2 exchange.

  7. An Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Exchange rate policy plays an important role in national economic development and management. Thus, the debate on exchange rate management has preoccupied economists and public sector managers for a very long time. The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on tradable goods ...

  8. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US

  9. A Critical Appraisal of Exchange Rate Policies and the Value of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper critically appraised exchange rate policies and its influence on the value of the domestic currency (i.e. Naira) in Nigeria for the period 1970 through 2002 within the framework of tabular approach. Exchange rate theories and the exchange rate policies prior to SAP, during SAP and after SAP were reviewed.

  10. Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijia Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno

    2010-01-01

    The relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We...

  11. Evaluating a new method to estimate the rate of leaf respiration in the light by analysis of combined gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, X.; Sun, Z.; Struik, P.C.; Gu, J.

    2011-01-01

    Day respiration (R(d)) is an important parameter in leaf ecophysiology. It is difficult to measure directly and is indirectly estimated from gas exchange (GE) measurements of the net photosynthetic rate (A), commonly using the Laisk method or the Kok method. Recently a new method was proposed to

  12. Impacts of Korea's Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwon Sik Kim

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of two types of uncertainty related to the real effective exchange rate (REER in Korea for export trends. To decompose uncertainties into two types of component, I propose an advanced generalized Markov switching model, as developed by Hamilton (1989 and then expanded by Kim and Kim (1996. The proposed model is useful in uncovering two sources of uncertainty: the permanent component of REER and the purely transitory component. I think that the two types of uncertainties have a different effect on export trends in Korea. The transitory component of REER has no effect on the export trend at 5-percent significance, but the permanent component has an effect at this level. In addition, the degree of uncertainty, consisting of low, medium and high uncertainty in the permanent component, and low, medium and high uncertainty in transitory component of REER, also has different effects on export trends in Korea. Only high uncertainty in permanent components effects export trends. The results show that when the policy authority intends to prevent the shrinkage of exports due to the deepening of uncertainties in the foreign exchange market, the economic impacts of its intervention could appear differently according to the characteristics and degree of the uncertainties. Therefore, they imply that its economic measures, which could not grasp the sources of uncertainties properly, may even bring economic costs.

  13. Return Rates for Needle Exchange Programs: A Common Criticism Answered

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksobiech Kate

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study searched the available needle exchange program (NEP literature for return rate data. A total of 26 articles were found. The overall worldwide return rate was 90%, although this ranged from a low of 15% to a high of 112%. U.S. NEP return rates were gathered from only eight studies, indicating a clear need for more data, although U.S. return rates were comparable to those from NEPs outside of the U.S. One underlying assumption made by opponents of NEPs is that IDUs will not return needles to the distribution site, thereby potentially increasing the risk of health problems to the surrounding community from exposure to contaminated needles. This study's results suggest that NEPs are relatively successful in taking in used needles, although it is generally unclear where the needles were originally acquired, and if IDUs return their own needles, or are returning needles for a social network. Ways for AIDS Service Organizations to capitalize on these brief encounters with IDUs, as well as public policy implications of the findings, are discussed.

  14. Biotic, abiotic, and management controls on the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of European mountain grassland ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Friborg, Thomas; Johansson et.al., Paul Torbjörn

    2008-01-01

    The net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange (NEE) of nine European mountain grassland ecosystems was measured during 2002-2004 using the eddy covariance method. Overall, the availability of photosynthetically active radiation (PPFD) was the single most important abiotic influence factor for NEE....... Its role changed markedly during the course of the season, PPFD being a better predictor for NEE during periods favorable for CO2 uptake, which was spring and autumn for the sites characterized by summer droughts (southern sites) and (peak) summer for the Alpine and northern study sites. This general...... pattern was interrupted by grassland management practices, that is, mowing and grazing, when the variability in NEE explained by PPFD decreased in concert with the amount of aboveground biomass (BMag). Temperature was the abiotic influence factor that explained most of the variability in ecosystem...

  15. Inhomogeneous scaling behaviors in Malaysian foreign currency exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muniandy, S. V.; Lim, S. C.; Murugan, R.

    2001-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate the fractal scaling behaviors of foreign currency exchange rates with respect to Malaysian currency, Ringgit Malaysia. These time series are examined piecewise before and after the currency control imposed in 1st September 1998 using the monofractal model based on fractional Brownian motion. The global Hurst exponents are determined using the R/ S analysis, the detrended fluctuation analysis and the method of second moment using the correlation coefficients. The limitation of these monofractal analyses is discussed. The usual multifractal analysis reveals that there exists a wide range of Hurst exponents in each of the time series. A new method of modelling the multifractal time series based on multifractional Brownian motion with time-varying Hurst exponents is studied.

  16. Estimation of net ecosystem carbon exchange for the conterminous United States by combining MODIS and AmeriFlux data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Burns, Sean P.; Chen, Jiquan; Cook, David R.; Curtis, Peter S.; Drake, Bert G.; Foster, David R.; Gu, Lianhong; Hadley, Julian L.; Hollinger, David Y.; Katul, Gabriel G.; Law, Beverly E.; Litvak, Marcy; Ma, Siyan; Martin, Timothy A.; Matamala, Roser; McNulty, Steve; Meyers, Tilden P.; Monson, Russell K.; Munger, J. William; Noormets, Asko; Oechel, Walter C.; Oren, Ram; Richardson, Andrew D.; Schmid, Hans Peter; Scott, Russell L.; Starr, Gregory; Sun, Ge; Suyker, Andrew E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Paw, Kyaw; Verma, Shashi B.; Wharton, Sonia; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2008-10-01

    Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents, flux tower measurements need to be extrapolated to these large areas. Here we used remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Terra satellite to scale up AmeriFlux NEE measurements to the continental scale. We first combined MODIS and AmeriFlux data for representative U.S. ecosystems to develop a predictive NEE model using a modified regression tree approach. The predictive model was trained and validated using eddy flux NEE data over the periods 2000-2004 and 2005-2006, respectively. We found that the model predicted NEE well (r = 0.73, p < 0.001). We then applied the model to the continental scale and estimated NEE for each 1 km x 1 km cell across the conterminous U.S. for each 8-day interval in 2005 using spatially explicit MODIS data. The model generally captured the expected spatial and seasonal patterns of NEE as determined from measurements and the literature. Our study demonstrated that our empirical approach is effective for scaling up eddy flux NEE measurements to the continental scale and producing wall-to-wall NEE estimates across multiple biomes. Our estimates may provide an independent dataset from simulations with biogeochemical models and inverse modeling approaches for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of NEE and constraining terrestrial carbon budgets over large areas.

  17. Estimation of Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange for the Conterminous UnitedStates by Combining MODIS and AmeriFlux Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Law, Beverly E.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Chen, Jiquan; Oren, Ram; Starr, Gregory; Noormets, Asko; Ma, Siyan; Verma, Shashi B.; Wharton, Sonia; Wofsy, Steven C.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Burns, Sean P.; Cook, David R.; Curtis, Peter S.; Drake, Bert G.; Falk, Matthias; Fischer, Marc L.; Foster, David R.; Gu, Lianhong; Hadley, Julian L.; Hollinger, David Y.; Katul, Gabriel G.; Litvak, Marcy; Martin, Timothy A.; Matamala, Roser; McNulty, Steve; Meyers, Tilden P.; Monson, Russell K.; Munger, J. William; Oechel, Walter C.; U, Kyaw Tha Paw; Schmid, Hans Peter; Scott, Russell L.; Sun, Ge; Suyker, Andrew E.; Torn, Margaret S.

    2009-03-06

    Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents, flux tower measurements need to be extrapolated to these large areas. Here we used remotely-sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite to scale up AmeriFlux NEE measurements to the continental scale. We first combined MODIS and AmeriFlux data for representative U.S. ecosystems to develop a predictive NEE model using a regression tree approach. The predictive model was trained and validated using NEE data over the periods 2000-2004 and 2005-2006, respectively. We found that the model predicted NEE reasonably well at the site level. We then applied the model to the continental scale and estimated NEE for each 1 km x 1 km cell across the conterminous U.S. for each 8-day period in 2005 using spatially-explicit MODIS data. The model generally captured the expected spatial and seasonal patterns of NEE. Our study demonstrated that our empirical approach is effective for scaling up eddy flux NEE measurements to the continental scale and producing wall-to-wall NEE estimates across multiple biomes. Our estimates may provide an independent dataset from simulations with biogeochemical models and inverse modeling approaches for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of NEE and constraining terrestrial carbon budgets for large areas.

  18. Nonparametric analysis of nonexponential and multidimensional kinetics. I. Quantifying rate dispersion, rate heterogeneity, and exchange dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Mark A.; Kaur, Harveen

    2017-02-01

    The quantification of nonexponential (dispersed) kinetics has relied on empirical functions, which yield parameters that are neither unique nor easily related to the underlying mechanism. Multidimensional kinetics provide more information on dispersed processes, but a good approach to their analysis is even less clear than for standard, one-dimensional kinetics. This paper is the first in a series that analyzes kinetic data in one or many dimensions with a scheme that is nonparametric: it quantifies nonexponential decays without relying on a specific functional form. The quantities obtained are directly related to properties of the mechanism causing the rate dispersion. Log-moments of decays, which parallel the standard moments of distributions (mean, standard deviation, etc.), are introduced for both one- and multi-dimensional decays. Kinetic spectra are defined to visualize the data. The utility of this approach is demonstrated on a simple, but general, model of dispersed kinetics—a nonexponential homogeneous decay combined with slowly exchanging rate heterogeneity. The first log-moments give a geometric-mean relaxation time. Second log-moments quantify the magnitude of rate dispersion, the fraction of the dispersion due to heterogeneity, and the dynamics of exchange between different rate subensembles. A suitable combination of these moments isolates exchange dynamics from three-dimensional kinetics without contamination by the rate-filtering effects that were identified in a recent paper [M. A. Berg and J. R. Darvin, J. Chem. Phys. 145, 054119 (2016)].

  19. Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo Vargas-Ángel

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2 yr(-1 of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons

  20. Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Richards, Cristi L; Vroom, Peter S; Price, Nichole N; Schils, Tom; Young, Charles W; Smith, Jennifer; Johnson, Maggie D; Brainard, Russell E

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2) yr(-1)) of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU) plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years) of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA) percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons makes CCA

  1. Differences in Net Ecosystem Exchange for an intensely managed watershed using a lumped, regional model and a mechanistic, hillslope-scale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C. G.; Wacha, K.; Papanicolaou, T.; Stanier, C. O.; Jamroensan, A.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), and its components Gross Ecosystem Exchange (GEE) and Ecosystem Respiration (RESP), were compared from a lumped, regional model and a mechanistic, hillslope-scale model to determine if the effects of land management on the carbon cycle are captured by larger-scale biosphere models that determine CO2 sources and sinks. WRF-VPRM (Weather Research & Forecasting - Vegetation Photosynthesis & Respiration Model) is a regional-scale model that uses simulated downward shortwave radiation and surface temperatures, along with satellite-derived land cover indices and eddy flux tower-derived parameters to estimate biosphere CO2 fluxes with empirical equations. The DAYCENT biogeochemical model coupled with the Watershed Erosion Prediction Project model (WEPP), which simulates changes in soil carbon stocks due to different land management and the resulting enhanced erosion, can also quantify biosphere CO2 fluxes. Both models (i.e., WRF-VPRM and WEPP-DAYCENT) were used to quantify GEE, RESP, and NEE for the summer of 2008 in the IML-CZO Clear Creek watershed of the U.S. Midwest to examine the role of land management heterogeneity in CO2 exchanges between the biosphere and atmosphere. Comparing average daily GEE rates from WRF-VPRM (-11.0 ± 5.2 g C/m2/d) with WEPP-DAYCENT average values weighted per land use area in the watershed (-10.2 ± 1.5 g C/m2/d) showed no significant differences (t-test; p=0.08). In contrast, daily RESP values were different between the two models. Daily respiration rates were relatively constant for WRF-VPRM (6.0 ± 0.8 g C/m2/d), while WEPP-DAYCENT values for each management practice were significantly greater (7.2 ± 1.8 g C/m2/d; t-test, pmanagement and net erosion/deposition on total SOC stocks and tillage impacts on respiration by increasing decomposition from the breaking of soil aggregates and enhanced mineralization. In WRF-VPRM, respiration is calculated with a regression equation based on air

  2. Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Major insights into the relationship between life-history features and fitness have come from Lotka's proof that population growth rate is determined by the level (expected amount) of reproduction and the average timing of reproduction of an individual. But this classical result is limited...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...... features of the life history determine population growth rate r and reveal a complex interplay of trait dynamics, timing, and level of reproduction. Our results contribute to a new framework of population and evolutionary dynamics in stage-and-age-structured populations....

  3. Typhoons exert significant but differential impact on net carbon ecosystem exchange of subtropical mangrove ecosystems in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H.; Lu, W.; Yan, G.; Yang, S.; Lin, G.

    2014-06-01

    Typhoons are very unpredictable natural disturbances to subtropical mangrove forests in Asian countries, but litter information is available on how these disturbances affect ecosystem level carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange of mangrove wetlands. In this study, we examined short-term effect of frequent strong typhoons on defoliation and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of subtropical mangroves, and also synthesized 19 typhoons during a 4-year period between 2009 and 2012 to further investigate the regulation mechanisms of typhoons on ecosystem carbon and water fluxes following typhoon disturbances. Strong wind and intensive rainfall caused defoliation and local cooling effect during typhoon season. Daily total NEE values were decreased by 26-50% following some typhoons (e.g. W28-Nockten, W35-Molave and W35-Lio-Fan), but were significantly increased (43-131%) following typhoon W23-Babj and W38-Megi. The magnitudes and trends of daily NEE responses were highly variable following different typhoons, which were determined by the balance between the variances of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). Furthermore, results from our synthesis indicated that the landfall time of typhoon, wind speed and rainfall were the most important factors controlling the CO2 fluxes following typhoon events. These findings not only indicate that mangrove ecosystems have strong resilience to the frequent typhoon disturbances, but also demonstrate the damage of increasing typhoon intensity and frequency on subtropical mangrove ecosystems under future global climate change scenarios.

  4. Australian Universities' Strategic Goals of Student Exchange and Participation Rates in Outbound Exchange Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Amanda; Barker, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    International student exchange programmes are acknowledged as one aspect of a broader suite of internationalisation strategies aimed at enhancing students' intercultural understanding and competence. The decision to participate in an exchange programme is dependent on both individual and contextual factors such as student exchange policies and…

  5. Relationship Between Diurnal Changes of Net Photosynthetic Rate and Influencing Factors in Rice under Saline Sodic Stress

    OpenAIRE

    Fu Yang; Zheng-wei Liang; Zhi-chun Wang; Yuan Chen

    2008-01-01

    The net photosynthetic rate of flag leaves and influencing factors under saline sodic soil conditions were investigated at the full heading stage of rice. The net photosynthetic rate of rice leaves showed a double-peak curve in a day in both non-saline sodic and saline sodic soil treatments. The first peak of the net photosynthetic rate appeared at 9:00–10:00 and 9:00 in the saline sodic and non-saline sodic soil treatments, respectively, whereas the second peak both at 14:00. The midday depr...

  6. Modeling Net Ecosystem Exchange for Grassland in Central Kazakhstan by Combining Remote Sensing and Field Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Propastin

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Carbon sequestration was estimated in a semi-arid grassland region in Central Kazakhstan using an approach that integrates remote sensing, field measurements and meteorological data. Carbon fluxes for each pixel of 1 × 1 km were calculated as a product of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR and its fraction absorbed by vegetation (fPAR, the light use efficiency (LUE and ecosystem respiration (Re. The PAR is obtained from a mathematical model incorporating Earth-Sun distance, solar inclination, solar elevation angle, geographical position and cloudiness information of localities. The fPAR was measured in field using hemispherical photography and was extrapolated to each pixel by combination with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI obtained by the Vegetation instrument on board the Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terra (SPOT satellite. Gross Primary Production (GPP of the aboveground and belowground vegetation of 14 sites along a 230 km west-east transect within the study region were determined at the peak of growing season in different land cover types and linearly related to the amount of PAR absorbed by vegetation (APAR. The product of this relationship is LUE = 0.61 and 0.97 g C/MJ APAR for short grassland and steppe, respectively. The Re is estimated using complex models driven by climatic data. Growing season carbon sequestration was calculated for the modelling year of 2004. Overall, the short grassland was a net carbon sink, whereas the steppe was carbon neutral. The evaluation of the modelled carbon sequestration against independent reference data sets proved high accuracy of the estimations.

  7. Continuous Time Models of Interest Rate: Testing Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio Núñez

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available As an extension of the article by Núñez, De la Cruz and Ortega (2007, different parametric models with jumps are tested with the methodology developed by Ait-Sahalia and Peng (2006, based on the transition function. Data analyzed are the peso-dollar exchange rate. The idea is to implement continuous-time parametric models to the peso-dollar exchange rate. The results confirm that no continuous time model are not accurate enough to explain the behavior that describes the peso-dollar exchange rate, however, considering some continuous time models with Poisson jumps is possible to describe such behavior.Como una extensión del artículo de Núñez, De la Cruz y Ortega (2007, diferentes modelos paramétricos con saltos son probados con la metodología desarrollada por Ait-Sahalia y Peng (2006, basados en la función de transición. Los datos analizados corresponden al tipo de cambio peso-dólar. La idea es implantar modelos paramétricos de tiempo continuo para el tipo de cambio mencionado. Los resultados confirman que los modelos de tiempo continuo propuestos no son suficientemente buenos para explicar el comportamiento del tipo de cambio. Sin embargo, considerando algunos modelos de tiempo continuo con saltos de Poisson, es posible describir tal comportamiento.

  8. Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma Chandan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate in a Multiple Indicator Approach (MIA framework. This study has employed a monetary policy index of key monetary policy instruments in India (Bank rate, Cash Reserve Ratio, Repo and Reverse Repo rates. The study finds the empirical evidence for puzzling behavior of price level and exchange rate. Both price and exchange rate increase initially in response to a contractionary policy shock. Policy shocks affect output, inflation and exchange rate to an appreciable extent over a forecasting horizon of one year.

  9. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  10. Intercomparisons of Prognostic, Diagnostic, and Inversion Modeling Approaches for Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange over the Pacific Northwest Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D. P.; Jacobson, A. R.; Nemani, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    The recent development of large spatially-explicit datasets for multiple variables relevant to monitoring terrestrial carbon flux offers the opportunity to estimate the terrestrial land flux using several alternative, potentially complimentary, approaches. Here we developed and compared regional estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. using three approaches. In the prognostic modeling approach, the process-based Biome-BGC model was driven by distributed meteorological station data and was informed by Landsat-based coverages of forest stand age and disturbance regime. In the diagnostic modeling approach, the quasi-mechanistic CFLUX model estimated net ecosystem production (NEP) by upscaling eddy covariance flux tower observations. The model was driven by distributed climate data and MODIS FPAR (the fraction of incident PAR that is absorbed by the vegetation canopy). It was informed by coarse resolution (1 km) data about forest stand age. In both the prognostic and diagnostic modeling approaches, emissions estimates for biomass burning, harvested products, and river/stream evasion were added to model-based NEP to get NEE. The inversion model (CarbonTracker) relied on observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration to optimize prior surface carbon flux estimates. The Pacific Northwest is heterogeneous with respect to land cover and forest management, and repeated surveys of forest inventory plots support the presence of a strong regional carbon sink. The diagnostic model suggested a stronger carbon sink than the prognostic model, and a much larger sink that the inversion model. The introduction of Landsat data on disturbance history served to reduce uncertainty with respect to regional NEE in the diagnostic and prognostic modeling approaches. The FPAR data was particularly helpful in capturing the seasonality of the carbon flux using the diagnostic modeling approach. The inversion approach took advantage of a global

  11. Representing Sub-Plot Canopy Heterogeneity Improves Model Prediction of Net Ecosystem Exchange in a Mixed-Deciduous Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasson, R. P. M.; Bohrer, G.; Medvigy, D.; Vogel, C. S.; Gough, C. M.; Curtis, P.

    2014-12-01

    Canopy density and composition may vary within an eddy covariance tower's footprint in response to small-scale topographic features, biotic interactions such as herbivory, local disturbances, etc. We are investigating how different representations of canopy heterogeneity influence predictions of net ecosystem CO2 exchange in a mixed-deciduous forest by an age/plant functional type structured ecosystem model. Our study area is located at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) where two eddy covariance towers and periodic tree censuses provide a rich long-term record of ecosystem structure, weather, and carbon uptake. Meteorological measurements collected at the US-UMB AmeriFlux tower served to force, optimize, and evaluate the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2), while tree census information was used to initialize ED2. To test the influence that representing canopy heterogeneity has on model-tower agreement, we ran a set of ED2 site-level simulations with an increasing number of sub-grid patches. The first simulation, which we call 'aggregated', had one large patch explicitly containing all trees. The aggregated canopy represents a case where different size cohorts of each plant functional type are distributed homogeneously throughout the plot with uniform stem density. Six other simulations represented patch-level canopies with varying degrees of heterogeneity, ranging from 5 to 64 sub-plot patches; each patch represented from one to several of the 0.1 ha tree census plots. A preliminary comparison of the aggregated and the 20-plot heterogeneous simulations showed that including patch-level heterogeneity in the canopy description improved model prediction quality. For example, compared to the single-patch, aggregated simulation, including 20 sub-plot patches improved model bias in the estimated accumulated 5-year net ecosystem exchange from 17% to 5%, which is smaller than our tower observation uncertainty. As a result of this study, we will

  12. Annual net ecosystem exchanges of carbon dioxide and methane from a temperate brackish marsh: should the focus of marsh restoration be on brackish environments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Windham-Myers, L.; Anderson, F. E.; Bergamaschi, B. A.; Ferner, M. C.; Schile, L. M.; Spinelli, G.

    2015-12-01

    The exchange and transport of carbon in tidally driven, saline marsh ecosystems provide habitat and trophic support for coastal wildlife and fisheries, while potentially accumulating and storing carbon at some of the highest rates compared to other ecosystems. However, due to the predicted rise in sea level over the next century, the preservation and restoration of estuarine habitats is necessary to compensate for their expected decline. In addition, restoration of these marsh systems can also reduce the impacts of global climate change as they assimilate as much carbon as their freshwater counterparts, while emitting less methane due to the higher concentrations of sulfate in seawater. Unfortunately, in brackish marshes, with salinity concentrations less than 18 parts per thousand (ppt), simple relationships between methane production, salinity and sulfate concentrations are not well known. Here we present the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide and methane, as calculated by the eddy covariance method, from a brackish marsh ecosystem in the San Francisco Estuary where salinity ranges from oligohaline (0.5-5 ppt) to mesohaline (5-18 ppt) conditions. Daily rates of carbon dioxide and methane NEE ranged from approximately 10 gC-CO2 m-2 d-1 and 0 mgC-CH4 m-2 d-1, during the winter to -15 gC-CO2 m-2 d-1 and 30 mgC-CH4 m-2 d-1, in the summer growing season. A comparison between similar measurements made from freshwater wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta found that the daily rates of carbon dioxide NEE were similar, but daily rates of methane NEE were just a small fraction (0-15%). Our research also shows that the daily fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane at the brackish marsh were highly variable and may be influenced by the tidal exchanges of seawater. Furthermore, the observed decline in methane production from summer to fall may have resulted from a rise in salinity and/or a seasonal decline in water and air temperatures. Our research goals are

  13. Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet BEŞKAYA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic and political factors on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy. Our data covers the period of 1980-2013 for the selected EU countries, namely, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Denmark, England, Sweden and Italy. Estimation results demonstrates that the choice of fixed exchange rate regime become disadvantageous and flexible exchange rate turn out to be the right choice as financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democratization increases.

  14. Typhoons exert significant but differential impacts on net ecosystem carbon exchange of subtropical mangrove forests in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H.; Lu, W.; Yan, G.; Yang, S.; Lin, G.

    2014-10-01

    Typhoons are very unpredictable natural disturbances to subtropical mangrove forests in Asian countries, but little information is available on how these disturbances affect ecosystem level carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange of mangrove wetlands. In this study, we examined short-term effect of frequent strong typhoons on defoliation and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of subtropical mangroves, and also synthesized 19 typhoons during a 4-year period between 2009 and 2012 to further investigate the regulation mechanisms of typhoons on ecosystem carbon and water fluxes following typhoon disturbances. Strong wind and intensive rainfall caused defoliation and local cooling effect during the typhoon season. Daily total NEE values decreased by 26-50% following some typhoons (e.g., W28-Nockten, W35-Molave and W35-Lio-Fan), but significantly increased (43-131%) following typhoon W23-Babj and W38-Megi. The magnitudes and trends of daily NEE responses were highly variable following different typhoons, which were determined by the balance between the variances of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). Furthermore, results from our synthesis indicated that the landfall time of typhoon, wind speed and rainfall were the most important factors controlling the CO2 fluxes following typhoon events. These findings indicate that different types of typhoon disturbances can exert very different effects on CO2 fluxes of mangrove ecosystems and that typhoon will likely have larger impacts on carbon cycle processes in subtropical mangrove ecosystems as the intensity and frequency of typhoons are predicted to increase under future global climate change scenarios.

  15. Low rate loading-induced convection enhances net transport into the intervertebral disc in vivo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gullbrand, Sarah E; Peterson, Joshua; Mastropolo, Rosemarie; Roberts, Timothy T; Lawrence, James P; Glennon, Joseph C; DiRisio, Darryl J; Ledet, Eric H

    2015-05-01

    The intervertebral disc primarily relies on trans-endplate diffusion for the uptake of nutrients and the clearance of byproducts. In degenerative discs, diffusion is often diminished by endplate sclerosis and reduced proteoglycan content. Mechanical loading-induced convection has the potential to augment diffusion and enhance net transport into the disc. The ability of convection to augment disc transport is controversial and has not been demonstrated in vivo. To determine if loading-induced convection can enhance small molecule transport into the intervertebral disc in vivo. Net transport was quantified via postcontrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) into the discs of the New Zealand white rabbit lumbar spine subjected to in vivo cyclic low rate loading. Animals were administered the MRI contrast agent gadodiamide intravenously and subjected to in vivo low rate loading (0.5 Hz, 200 N) via a custom external loading apparatus for either 2.5, 5, 10, 15, or 20 minutes. Animals were then euthanized and the lumbar spines imaged using postcontrast enhanced MRI. The T1 constants in the nucleus, annulus, and cartilage endplates were quantified as a measure of gadodiamide transport into the loaded discs compared with the adjacent unloaded discs. Microcomputed tomography was used to quantify subchondral bone density. Low rate loading caused the rapid uptake and clearance of gadodiamide in the nucleus compared with unloaded discs, which exhibited a slower rate of uptake. Relative to unloaded discs, low rate loading caused a maximum increase in transport into the nucleus of 16.8% after 5 minutes of loading. Low rate loading increased the concentration of gadodiamide in the cartilage endplates at each time point compared with unloaded levels. Results from this study indicate that forced convection accelerated small molecule uptake and clearance in the disc induced by low rate mechanical loading. Low rate loading may, therefore, be therapeutic to the disc as it

  16. Design and simulation of heat exchangers using Aspen HYSYS, and Aspen exchanger design and rating for paddy drying application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janaun, J.; Kamin, N. H.; Wong, K. H.; Tham, H. J.; Kong, V. V.; Farajpourlar, M.

    2016-06-01

    Air heating unit is one of the most important parts in paddy drying to ensure the efficiency of a drying process. In addition, an optimized air heating unit does not only promise a good paddy quality, but also save more for the operating cost. This study determined the suitable and best specifications heating unit to heat air for paddy drying in the LAMB dryer. In this study, Aspen HYSYS v7.3 was used to obtain the minimum flow rate of hot water needed. The resulting data obtained from Aspen HYSYS v7.3 were used in Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR) to generate heat exchanger design and costs. The designs include shell and tubes and plate heat exchanger. The heat exchanger was designed in order to produce various drying temperatures of 40, 50, 60 and 70°C of air with different flow rate, 300, 2500 and 5000 LPM. The optimum condition for the heat exchanger were found to be plate heat exchanger with 0.6 mm plate thickness, 198.75 mm plate width, 554.8 mm plate length and 11 numbers of plates operating at 5000 LPM air flow rate.

  17. What drives the seasonal pattern of δ13C in the net land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raczka, B. M.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Lai, C. T.; Pataki, D. E.; Saleska, S. R.; Torn, M. S.; Vaughn, B. H.; Wehr, R. A.; Bowling, D. R.

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal pattern of δ13C of atmospheric CO2 depends upon both local and non-local land-atmosphere exchange and atmospheric transport. It has been suggested that the seasonal pattern is driven primarily from local variation in the δ13C of the net CO2 flux (exchange between vegetation and the atmosphere) as a result of variation of stomatal conductance of the vegetation. Here we study local variation of δ13C of the land-atmosphere exchange at 7 sites across the United States representing forests (Harvard, Howland, Niwot Ridge, Wind River), grasslands (Southern Great Plains, Rannell Prairie) and an urban center (Salt Lake City). Using a simple 2-part mixing model with background corrections we find that the δ13C of the net exchange of CO2 was most enriched at the grassland sites (-18.9 o/oo), and most depleted at the urban site (-29.6 o/oo) due to the contribution of C4 photosynthesis and fossil fuel emissions, respectively. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle was most pronounced at the C3/C4 grassland and the urban sites. In contrast, the forested sites have a reduced seasonal cycle, and remain almost constant during the growing season (0.49 o/oo change). Furthermore, by accounting for relatively fast δ13C variations in non-local sources at Niwot Ridge we find that the seasonal pattern in δ13C of net exchange is eliminated altogether. These results support the idea that a coherent, global seasonal pattern in δ13C of net exchange is influenced by seasonal transitions in C3/C4 grass, and the intensity and seasonal timing of fossil fuel emissions. This will have important implications for studies that use δ13C to constrain large-scale carbon fluxes.

  18. An Empirical Study on the Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    I-Ming Chiu

    2008-01-01

    The behavior of exchange rates has been an important issue in the international finance literature. Although exchange rate is erratic and unpredictable in the short run, its long-run behavior is believed to be guided by economic fundamentals. This paper empirically tests the long-run determinants of the exchange rate by focusing on the Taiwan/US case. After incorporating productivity differential, foreign reserves, and monetary base in the absolute Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) proposition, w...

  19. Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Models in South Africa: How Robust Are They?

    OpenAIRE

    Egert, Balazs

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses difficulties in modelling exchange rates in South Africa. Real exchange rate models of earlier research seem to be sensitive to the sample period considered, alternative variable definition, data frequency and estimation methods. Alternative exchange rate models proposed in this paper including the stock-flow approach and variants of the monetary model are not fully robust to data frequency and alternative estimation periods, either. Nevertheless, adding openness to the s...

  20. A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie-Hao Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR model by 5.80%.

  1. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND PROTECTION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Handan AKSUYEK,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available As with all sectors, recent extreme changes occurred in the exchange rates have substantially affected the construction operations. While the rise in foreign exchange rates leads to harmful effects in the negative direction at the operations having foreign exchange – based debt or it provides also advantageous effect in the positive direction at the construction companies having foreign exchange – indexed investments. In this context, this sudden change in foreign exchange rates which cannot be predicted beforehand and emerges as a result of speculative events. As with all operations carrying out foreign exchange – based tasks, these fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate head first among the factors which affect the achievement or failure of the cost or profit targets previously determined by the construction companies as well. Therefore, the companies whose costs and profits consist of different units of currency in their construction agreements should apply to the hedging methods in order to be protected against the exchange rate. As for the main tools of protection method are the derivative products such as forward, futures, swap and optional contracts. In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the completion costs of construction projects is scrutinized. Moreover, the tools which may be employed by the construction companies in order to get rid of exchange rate which adversely influence the building companies in both directions have been comparatively evaluated.

  2. Biomass rather than growth rate determines variation in net primary production by giant kelp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Daniel C; Rassweiler, Andrew; Arkema, Katie K

    2008-09-01

    Net primary production (NPP) is influenced by disturbance-driven fluctuations in foliar standing crop (FSC) and resource-driven fluctuations in rates of recruitment and growth, yet most studies of NPP have focused primarily on factors influencing growth. We quantified NPP, FSC, recruitment, and growth rate for the giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, at three kelp forests in southern California, U.S.A., over a 54-month period and determined the relative roles of FSC, recruitment, and growth rate in contributing to variation in annual NPP. Net primary production averaged between 0.42 and 2.38 kg dry mass x m(-2) x yr(-1) at the three sites. The initial FSC present at the beginning of the growth year and the recruitment of new plants during the year explained 63% and 21% of the interannual variation observed in NPP, respectively. The previous year's NPP and disturbance from waves collectively accounted for 80% of the interannual variation in initial FSC. No correlation was found between annual growth rate (i.e., the amount of new kelp mass produced per unit of existing kelp mass) and annual NPP (i.e., the amount of new kelp mass produced per unit area of ocean bottom), largely because annual growth rate was consistent compared to initial FSC and recruitment, which fluctuated greatly among years and sites. Although growth rate was a poor predictor of variation in annual NPP, it was principally responsible for the high mean values observed for NPP by Macrocystis. These high mean values reflected rapid growth (average of approximately 2% per day) of a relatively small standing crop (maximum annual mean = 444 g dry mass/m2) that replaced itself approximately seven times per year. Disturbance-driven variability in FSC may be generally important in explaining variation in NPP, yet it is rarely examined because cycles of disturbance and recovery occur over timescales of decades or more in many systems. Considerable insight into how variation in FSC drives variation in NPP may

  3. Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangfeng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the association between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals with the focus on both linear and nonlinear approaches. With the monthly data of Euro/US dollar and Japanese yen/US dollar, our linear analysis demonstrates the monetary model is a long-run description of exchange rate movements, and our nonlinear modelling suggests the error correction model describes the short-run adjustment of deviations of exchange rates, and monetary fundamentals are capable of explaining exchange rate dynamics under an unrestricted framework.

  4. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...... purchases and sales both exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions. Intervention purchases of the small currency, on average, narrow the spread while intervention sales of the small currency, on average, widen the spread. This is a novel finding that differs from...... those of existing studies that find intervention always widens the exchange rate spread and increases market uncertainty...

  5. Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Accumulation and Income Distribution: Theory and Evidence from the Case of Brazil

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    José Luis Oreiro; Eliane Araujo

    2013-01-01

      This article analyzes the relationship between economic growth, income distribution and real exchange rate within the neo-Kaleckian literature, through the construction of a nonlinear macrodynamic...

  6. EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND U.S. POULTRY EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Yan; Awokuse, Titus O.

    2003-01-01

    Very little research exists on the potential impact of exchange rate volatility on agricultural trade. This paper evaluates the effects of exchange rate volatility on U.S. poultry exports using the gravity model on panel data. We find that exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on the U.S. poultry export but only statistically significant for the model in which we use the variance of spot exchange rate as the measurements. Consistent with previous studies, foreign incomes are also a v...

  7. Combining MODIS data and tower based measurements to estimate net ecosystem carbon exchange for the Republic of Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, K.; Clement, F.; Kiely, G.

    2012-04-01

    A number of previous studies have employed Fluxnet data in developing models to upscale localised eddy covariance (EC) footprints in order to determine net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) over regional or national scales. This study combined measured EC flux data (from three EC stations in Ireland over the period 2002-2007) with data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra (EOS-AM) Satellite, and land cover maps (Corine Land Cover for 2006) to develop predictive NEE models using an adapted regression tree method allowing upscaling to wider areas with MODIS products. Separate models were developed for the four main ecosystem types found in the Republic of Ireland: grassland, peatland, forestry and cropland. The NEE models showed promising correlations with the EC measurements of NEE for training and predictive data sets. Excluding urban and water areas, the results indicate that Ireland's terrestrial ecosystems are a sink for CO2 of -1.3Mg C-CO2 ha-1 y-1 giving a national estimate of -9.3 Tg C-CO2 y-1. This uptake compares to the national inventory estimate for emissions from agriculture of 5.03 Tg C-CO2 eq y-1. The models also captured well the spatiotemporal variations over the Republic of Ireland relative to the measured NEE in different ecosystem types over different seasons. The method shows potential in accounting for carbon fluxes over large areas.

  8. Effects of winter temperature and summer drought on net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in a temperate peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfter, Carole; Campbell, Claire; Dinsmore, Kerry; Drewer, Julia; Coyle, Mhairi; Anderson, Margaret; Skiba, Ute; Nemitz, Eiko; Billett, Michael; Sutton, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Northern peatlands are one of the most important global sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2); their ability to sequester C is a natural feedback mechanism controlled by climatic variables such as precipitation, temperature, length of growing season and period of snow cover. In the UK it has been predicted that peatlands could become a net source of carbon in response to climate change with climate models predicting a rise in global temperature of ca. 3oC between 1961-1990 and 2100. Land-atmosphere exchange of CO2in peatlands exhibits marked seasonal and inter-annual variations, which have significant short- and long-term effects on carbon sink strength. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 has been measured continuously by eddy-covariance (EC) at Auchencorth Moss (55° 47'32 N, 3° 14'35 W, 267 m a.s.l.), a temperate peatland in central Scotland, since 2002. Auchencorth Moss is a low-lying, ombrotrophic peatland situated ca. 20 km south-west of Edinburgh. Peat depth ranges from 5 m and the site has a mean annual precipitation of 1155 mm. The vegetation present within the flux measurement footprint comprises mixed grass species, heather and substantial areas of moss species (Sphagnum spp. and Polytrichum spp.). The EC system consists of a LiCOR 7000 closed-path infrared gas analyser for the simultaneous measurement of CO2 and water vapour and of a Gill Windmaster Pro ultrasonic anemometer. Over the 10 year period, the site was a consistent yet variable sink of CO2 ranging from -34.1 to -135.9 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1 (mean of -69.1 ± 33.6 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1). Inter-annual variability in NEE was positively correlated to the length of the growing seasons and mean winter air temperature explained 93% of the variability in summertime sink strength, indicating a phenological memory-effect. Plant development and productivity were stunted by colder winters causing a net reduction in the annual carbon sink strength of this peatland where autotrophic processes are thought to be

  9. Differential responses of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide to light and temperature between spring and neap tides in subtropical mangrove forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Lu, Weizhi; Chen, Hui; Luo, Yiqi; Lin, Guanghui

    2014-01-01

    The eddy flux data with field records of tidal water inundation depths of the year 2010 from two mangroves forests in southern China were analyzed to investigate the tidal effect on mangrove carbon cycle. We compared the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its responses to light and temperature, respectively, between spring tide and neap tide inundation periods. For the most time of the year 2010, higher daytime NEE values were found during spring tides than during neap tides at both study sites. Regression analysis of daytime NEE to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) using the Landsberg model showed increased sensitivity of NEE to PAR with higher maximum photosynthetic rate during spring tides than neap tides. In contrast, the light compensation points acquired from the regression function of the Landsberg model were smaller during spring tides than neap tides in most months. The dependence of nighttime NEE on soil temperature was lower under spring tide than under neap tides. All these results above indicated that ecosystem carbon uptake rates of mangrove forests were strengthened, while ecosystem respirations were inhibited during spring tides in comparison with those during neap tides, which needs to be considered in modeling mangrove ecosystem carbon cycle under future sea level rise scenarios.

  10. Differential Responses of Net Ecosystem Exchange of Carbon Dioxide to Light and Temperature between Spring and Neap Tides in Subtropical Mangrove Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The eddy flux data with field records of tidal water inundation depths of the year 2010 from two mangroves forests in southern China were analyzed to investigate the tidal effect on mangrove carbon cycle. We compared the net ecosystem exchange (NEE and its responses to light and temperature, respectively, between spring tide and neap tide inundation periods. For the most time of the year 2010, higher daytime NEE values were found during spring tides than during neap tides at both study sites. Regression analysis of daytime NEE to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR using the Landsberg model showed increased sensitivity of NEE to PAR with higher maximum photosynthetic rate during spring tides than neap tides. In contrast, the light compensation points acquired from the regression function of the Landsberg model were smaller during spring tides than neap tides in most months. The dependence of nighttime NEE on soil temperature was lower under spring tide than under neap tides. All these results above indicated that ecosystem carbon uptake rates of mangrove forests were strengthened, while ecosystem respirations were inhibited during spring tides in comparison with those during neap tides, which needs to be considered in modeling mangrove ecosystem carbon cycle under future sea level rise scenarios.

  11. The Banks Rating Analysis The Differences Between The Regional Development Banks And Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks In Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Irwan Ch

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze the bank rating in terms of differences the financial performance between the Regional Development Banks and Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks. It is consist of capital adequacy asset quality profitability Return On Asset ROA Return on Equity ROE Net Interest Margin NIM and Liquidity Loan to Deposit Ratio. The fulfillment of capital adequacy and asset quality of the bank groups did not differed significantly while in terms of profitability and liquidity there are significant differences. The earning difference is more likely due to the Regional Development Banks sources of funds for the implementation of the Local Government Cash Holder function as the Provincial Government and District City. The difference of liquidity are showed by the performance of Regional Development Banks and the Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks in lendingfinancing whereas the two groups of banks on average are still relatively low in lending.

  12. Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

  13. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  14. China’s Exchange Rate Policy: A Double Edged Sword

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Contrasting Adam Smith’s liberalism, Friedrich List provides an argument for mercantilism . List argues that Smith falsely conflates the individual economy...growth is largely attributed to state involvement or mercantilism . The success of this model appears to provide evidence, at least for developing...ineffective because it merely redistributes gains as opposed to increasing net gains. The second is mercantilism , which argues that devaluation is

  15. Modelling effects of seasonal variation in water table depth on net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a tropical peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezbahuddin, M.; Grant, R. F.; Hirano, T.

    2014-02-01

    Seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD) determines the balance between aggradation and degradation of tropical peatlands. Longer dry seasons together with human interventions (e.g. drainage) can cause WTD drawdowns making tropical peatland C storage highly vulnerable. Better predictive capacity for effects of WTD on net CO2 exchange is thus essential to guide conservation of tropical peat deposits. Mathematical modelling of basic eco-hydrological processes under site-specific conditions can provide such predictive capacity. We hereby deploy a process-based mathematical model ecosys to study effects of seasonal variation in WTD on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of a drainage affected tropical peat swamp forest at Palangkaraya, Indonesia. Simulated NEP suggested that the peatland was a C source (NEP ~ -2 g C m-2 d-1, where a negative sign represents a C source and a positive sign a C sink) during rainy seasons with shallow WTD, C neutral or a small sink (NEP ~ +1 g C m-2 d-1) during early dry seasons with intermediate WTD and a substantial C source (NEP ~ -4 g C m-2 d-1) during late dry seasons with deep WTD from 2002 to 2005. These values were corroborated by regressions (P 0.8, intercepts approaching 0 and slopes approaching 1. We also simulated a gradual increase in annual NEP from 2002 (-609 g C m-2) to 2005 (-373 g C m-2) with decreasing WTD which was attributed to declines in duration and intensity of dry seasons following the El Niño event of 2002. This increase in modelled NEP was corroborated by EC-gap filled annual NEP estimates. Our modelling hypotheses suggested that (1) poor aeration in wet soils during shallow WTD caused slow nutrient (predominantly phosphorus) mineralization and consequent slow plant nutrient uptake that suppressed gross primary productivity (GPP) and hence NEP (2) better soil aeration during intermediate WTD enhanced nutrient mineralization and hence plant nutrient uptake, GPP and NEP and (3) deep WTD suppressed NEP through a

  16. Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Shigeru Iwata; Evan C Tanner

    2007-01-01

    The authors characterize a country’s exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such responses, both contemporaneously and over time. Capital account shocks are further shown to affect output growth and inflation. The nature and magnitude of these effects may depend on the exchange ra...

  17. Evaluation of Exchange Rate Policy on Agricultural Trade in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the farmers to enhance their productivity. These would lead to increase export of cocoa and palm oil and reduced importation of rice. These would invariably enhance the foreign exchange earning capacity of the country as well as helping in the match towards acheiving self-reliance and self-sufficiency in food production.

  18. Have Exchange Rates Become More Closely Tied? Evidence from a New Multivariate GARCH Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1999-01-01

    We analyze the time-dependence of exchange rate correlations using a new multivariate GARCH model. This model consists of two parts. First, we transform the exchange rate changes into their principal components and specify univariate GARCH models for all components. Second, we use the inverse of the

  19. Exchange-rate determination : is there a role for macroeconomic fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews recent trends in exchange rate modelling with a view toward assessing new claims that macroeconomic variables are useful for explaining exchange rates. The application to co-integration techniques and the use of larger datasets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both

  20. Exchange Rate Exposures and Strategies of Industrial Companies: An Empirical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy.......This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy....

  1. Real exchange rate behaviour and non-oil export growth in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study analyses the effects of real exchange rate behaviour in terms of misalignment and volatility, on the growth of non-oil exports in Nigeria. It employs two alternative measures of real exchange rate misalignment, one based on deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the other on a model estimate of ...

  2. An Empirical Re-examination of Exchange Rate-Trade Balance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analyses showed that exchange rate depreciation led to trade balance deterioration in both the short run and the long run. Thus, this study could not find support for J-curve in Nigeria. Some suggestions on the way forward were put forth. Keywords: Trade balance; Exchange rate; Autoregressive distributed lag.

  3. Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions, Asymmetries and Hedging Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); Y. Yuan (Yuan); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the inclusion of the dollar/euro exchange rate together with four important and highly traded commodities - aluminum, copper, gold and oil- in symmetric and asymmetric multivariate GARCH and DCC models. The inclusion of exchange rate increases the significant direct

  4. Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: evidence from panel data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torjus F. Bolksejo; Joseph Buongiorno

    2006-01-01

    Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main...

  5. A bacterial cytotoxin identifies the RhoA exchange factor Net1 as a key effector in the response to DNA damage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Guerra

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Exposure of adherent cells to DNA damaging agents, such as the bacterial cytolethal distending toxin (CDT or ionizing radiations (IR, activates the small GTPase RhoA, which promotes the formation of actin stress fibers and delays cell death. The signalling intermediates that regulate RhoA activation and promote cell survival are unknown. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We demonstrate that the nuclear RhoA-specific Guanine nucleotide Exchange Factor (GEF Net1 becomes dephosphorylated at a critical inhibitory site in cells exposed to CDT or IR. Expression of a dominant negative Net1 or Net1 knock down by iRNA prevented RhoA activation, inhibited the formation of stress fibers, and enhanced cell death, indicating that Net1 activation is required for this RhoA-mediated responses to genotoxic stress. The Net1 and RhoA-dependent signals involved activation of the Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase p38 and its downstream target MAPK-activated protein kinase 2. SIGNIFICANCE: Our data highlight the importance of Net1 in controlling RhoA and p38 MAPK mediated cell survival in cells exposed to DNA damaging agents and illustrate a molecular pathway whereby chronic exposure to a bacterial toxin may promote genomic instability.

  6. Drivers of inter-annual variability in Net Ecosystem Exchange in a semi-arid savanna ecosystem, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Archibald

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Inter-annual variability in primary production and ecosystem respiration was explored using eddy-covariance data at a semi-arid savanna site in the Kruger Park, South Africa. New methods of extrapolating night-time respiration to the entire day and filling gaps in eddy-covariance data in semi-arid systems were developed. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE in these systems occurs as pulses associated with rainfall events, a pattern not well-represented in current standard gap-filling procedures developed primarily for temperate flux sites. They furthermore do not take into account the decrease in respiration at high soil temperatures. An artificial neural network (ANN model incorporating these features predicted measured fluxes accurately (MAE 0.42 gC/m2/day, and was able to represent the seasonal patterns of photosynthesis and respiration at the site. The amount of green leaf area (indexed using satellite-derived estimates of fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation fAPAR, and the timing and magnitude of rainfall events, were the two most important predictors used in the ANN model. These drivers were also identified by multiple linear regressions (MLR, with strong interactive effects. The annual integral of the filled NEE data was found to range from −138 to +155 g C/m2/y over the 5 year eddy covariance measurement period. When applied to a 25 year time series of meteorological data, the ANN model predicts an annual mean NEE of 75(±105 g C/m2/y. The main correlates of this inter-annual variability were found to be variation in the amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR, length of the growing season, and number of days in the year when moisture was available in the soil.

  7. Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in the Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange of a Pasture in the Three-River Source Region of the Qinghai?Tibetan Plateau

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Bin; Jin, Haiyan; Li, Qi; Chen, Dongdong; Zhao,Liang; Tang, Yanhong; Kato, Tomomichi; Gu, Song

    2017-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the atmosphere and grassland ecosystems is very important for the global carbon balance. To assess the CO2 flux and its relationship to environmental factors, the eddy covariance method was used to evaluate the diurnal cycle and seasonal pattern of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of a cultivated pasture in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) on the Qinghai?Tibetan Plateau from January 1 to December 31, 2008. The diurnal variations in the NEE and eco...

  8. External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Caputo, Rodrigo

    2009-01-01

    .... We conclude that, in the face of most of the external shocks, a policy rule that responds to exchange rate misalignments smooths inflation and output variability, while marginally increasing interest rate fluctuations...

  9. A kinetic model for estimating net photosynthetic rates of cos lettuce leaves under pulsed light.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jishi, Tomohiro; Matsuda, Ryo; Fujiwara, Kazuhiro

    2015-04-01

    Time-averaged net photosynthetic rate (P n) under pulsed light (PL) is known to be affected by the PL frequency and duty ratio, even though the time-averaged photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) is unchanged. This phenomenon can be explained by considering that photosynthetic intermediates (PIs) are pooled during light periods and then consumed by partial photosynthetic reactions during dark periods. In this study, we developed a kinetic model to estimate P n of cos lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. var. longifolia) leaves under PL based on the dynamics of the amount of pooled PIs. The model inputs are average PPFD, duty ratio, and frequency; the output is P n. The rates of both PI accumulation and consumption at a given moment are assumed to be dependent on the amount of pooled PIs at that point. Required model parameters and three explanatory variables (average PPFD, frequency, and duty ratio) were determined for the simulation using P n values under PL based on several combinations of the three variables. The model simulation for various PL levels with a wide range of time-averaged PPFDs, frequencies, and duty ratios further demonstrated that P n under PL with high frequencies and duty ratios was comparable to, but did not exceed, P n under continuous light, and also showed that P n under PL decreased as either frequency or duty ratio was decreased. The developed model can be used to estimate P n under various light environments where PPFD changes cyclically.

  10. The Chance Model: A Tool For Separating The Photosynthetic and Respiration Components of Forest Net Ecosystem Exchange and For Data Gap Filling In The Eddy Covariance Measurement Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longdoz, B.; Aubinet, M.; Francois, L.

    The CHANCE model simulates CO2, H2O and energy fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems. It has been calibrated and validated for a beech forest located in Viel- salm (Belgium), an experimental site included in the CARBOEUROFLUX network and equipped with an eddy covariance system measuring CO2, latent and sensible heat net fluxes exchanged between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. CHANCE has been used to fill the gaps in the eddy covariance measurement database. The results of this method are compared with those obtained by the interpolation and parameterization usually adopted in the CARBOEUROFLUX community. Each term of the net CO2 flux (CO2 exchanges by leaf, aerial wood and soil) are computed by CHANCE. The time integration of these terms provides estimates of the gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re). The temporal evolution of GPP and Re during the year is analysed.

  11. The Empirical Research of the Impact of GDP and Exchange Rate on Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale in China-Based on Quantile Regression Model

    OpenAIRE

    Lu Fang-Yuan; Shi Jun-Guo

    2013-01-01

    Based on the relevant data from 1985 to 2010, this thesis uses a quantile regression model to make an empirical research about the effect of GDP and exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve. The findings show that: Both GDP and exchange rate have a remarkable influence on the size of foreign exchange reserve and the effect of exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve is higher than GDP at mean place and middle and lower quantile, smaller than GDP at higher quantile. At all the examined quant...

  12. East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-16

    At the other extreme, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea have usually allowed their currencies to float freely in foreign exchange ( forex ...China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam allow their currency to adjust in value in forex markets so long as the...There were also reports that Korea sold more dollars for won in early April 2008.7 At the time, some forex analysts claimed that the new South Korean

  13. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  14. The Impact of Rate Design and Net Metering on the Bill Savings from Distributed PV for Residential Customers in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darghouth, Naim; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan

    2010-03-30

    Net metering has become a widespread policy in the U.S. for supporting distributed photovoltaics (PV) adoption. Though specific design details vary, net metering allows customers with PV to reduce their electric bills by offsetting their consumption with PV generation, independent of the timing of the generation relative to consumption - in effect, compensating the PV generation at retail electricity rates (Rose et al. 2009). While net metering has played an important role in jump-starting the residential PV market in the U.S., challenges to net metering policies have emerged in a number of states and contexts, and alternative compensation methods are under consideration. Moreover, one inherent feature of net metering is that the value of the utility bill savings it provides to customers with PV depends heavily on the structure of the underlying retail electricity rate, as well as on the characteristics of the customer and PV system. Consequently, the value of net metering - and the impact of moving to alternative compensation mechanisms - can vary substantially from one customer to the next. For these reasons, it is important for policymakers and others that seek to support the development of distributed PV to understand both how the bill savings varies under net metering, and how the bill savings under net metering compares to other possible compensation mechanisms. To advance this understanding, we analyze the bill savings from PV for residential customers of California's two largest electric utilities, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) and Southern California Edison (SCE). The analysis is based on hourly load data from a sample of 215 residential customers located in the service territories of the two utilities, matched with simulated hourly PV production for the same time period based on data from the nearest of 73 weather stations in the state.

  15. Net herbage accumulation rate and crude protein content of Urochloa brizantha cultivars under shade intensities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto de Lima Meirelles

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of silvopastoral systems is a sustainable alternative for animal production in various regions of the Brazil. However to obtain satisfactory results in these systems, the selection of forage species that grows well in the shade should be done. The tolerance of plants to light restriction and the correctly choice of species, considering good nutritional values for these conditions has great importance. The study of artificial shading for forage production helps the clarification of issues related to the behavior of plants under reduced light prior to use in integrations with forests. The aim of the study was to evaluate the net herbage accumulation rate of forage (HAR and crude protein (CP of Urochloa brizantha cultivars (Marandu and Piatã under natural light and shading of 30 and 60%. The experiment was conducted at FMVZ - UNESP, Botucatu. The experimental design was a randomized block in factorial arrangement 3 x 2 (three shading levels: 0, 30 and 60%, two cultivars: Marandu and Piatã with three replications and repeated measures (3 cuts. Sample collection occurred when the cultivars reached 35 cm in height. The treatments with shading showed lower cutting intervals as compared to those subjected to full sunlight, because they have reached in a shorter time to time as determined cut-off criterion (mean of 37, 45 and 61 days for reduction of 60%, reduction of 30% and full sun. Significant effects (P<0.05 interaction cultivar x shade x cut on the net herbage accumulation rate (HAR. Most HAR (P<0.05 was observed for cv. Marandu 60% reduction in lightness (127 kg/ha/day due to increased production of stem during the first growing cycle. The lower HAR also occurred to Marandu, but under natural light in the third cut (34 kg/ha/day due to adverse weather conditions during the growth interval. The shadow effect and the cutting (P<0.05 affected CP. The percentage of CP on cultivars showed the highest values (average value of 9.27% in 60

  16. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  17. The exchange rate managements in crisis-experienced emerging market economies after the 1990s

    OpenAIRE

    Taguchi, Hiroyuki

    2005-01-01

    This article examined the exchange rate managements in the crisis-experienced emerging market economies after the 1990s. First, we found that the exchange rate flexibility has increased from the pre-crisis period towards the post-crisis period under the “soft peg” regime. Second, we identified a structural change in the factors for determining a reference rate in exchange rate management from the pre-crisis period to the post-crisis period. Third, we found that East Asian countries, in their ...

  18. Inventories of Asian textile producers, US cotton exports, and the exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durmaz Nazif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper develops a model with US cotton exports depending on the stock-to-use ratio, trade weighted exchange rates, and the relative cotton prices. The role of inventories in cotton consumption is examined in five textile producing cotton importers, China, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. Cotton inventory dynamics is diverse among Asian textile producers. Relative prices have negative effect in all markets as expected. Exchange rate elasticities show that effects should be examined for each separate market. Changes in rates of depreciation also have stronger effects than exchange rate. Results reveal that these countries are not all that homogenous.

  19. [Effects of reduced solar radiation on winter wheat flag leaf net photosynthetic rate].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, You-Fei; Ni, Yan-Li; Mai, Bo-Ru; Wu, Rong-Jun; Feng, Yan; Sun, Jian; Li, Jian; Xu, Jing-Xin

    2011-06-01

    Taking winter wheat Triticum aestivum L. (cv. Yangmai 13) as test material, a field experiment was conducted in Nanjing City to study the effects of simulated reduced solar radiation on the diurnal variation of winter wheat flag leaf photosynthetic rate and the main affecting factors. Five treatments were installed, i. e., 15% (T15), 20% (T20) , 40% (T40), 60% (T60), and 100% (CK) of total incident solar radiation. Reduced solar irradiance increased the chlorophyll and lutein contents significantly, but decreased the net photosynthetic rate (Pn). Under different solar irradiance, the diurnal variation of Pn had greater difference, and the daily maximum Pn was in the order of CK > T60 > T40 > T 20 > T15. In CK, the Pn exhibited a double peak diurnal curve; while in the other four treatments, the Pn showed a single peak curve, and the peak was lagged behind that of CK. Correlation analysis showed that reduced solar irradiance was the main factor affecting the diurnal variation of Pn, but the physiological parameters also played important roles in determining the diurnal variation of Pn. In treatments T60 and T40, the photosynthesis active radiation (PAR), leaf temperature (T1) , stomatal conductance (Gs) , and transpiration rate (Tr) were significantly positively correlated with Pn, suggesting their positive effects on Pn. The intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) and stomatal limitation (Ls) had significant negative correlations with Pn in treatments T60 and T40 but significant positive correlations with Pn in treatments T20 and T15, implying that the Ci and Ls had negative (or positive) effects on Pn when the solar irradiance was higher (or lower) than 40% of incident solar irradiance.

  20. Exchange rate EUR/USD risk in investments denominated in USD in the period of the financial and economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Šoba

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the evaluation of the influence of the EUR/USD exchange rate on the yield-rate of dollar share investments from the viewpoint of the Euro investor in varying investment periods with emphasis on the period of the financial and subsequent economic crisis targeted mainly in the period 2008–2010.The outputs of the paper are realized for the following investment periods: one-year, three-year, five-year, seven-year, ten-year and fifteen-year. The supplementary investment period is the twenty-year period, which due to the small number of observations is characterized by low informative value. The share investments denominated in USD are represented by investments in the S&P 500 Total Net Return that also considers reinvestment in the period 1988–2010.The basic methodical tool of the paper is quantification of the factors that influence the yield-rate of the foreign currency investments in the reference currency of the investor. Quantification mainly attaches to the ratio of the influence of the EUR/USD exchange rate on the yield-rate of the dollar share investments from the viewpoint of the euro investor.

  1. The Effects of Workers’ Remittances on Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Dynamics -New Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Khurshid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impact of remittances on the exchange rate and exports in Pakistan, using the system GMM aproach on annual data series. We carry out a full sample Granger causality test along with the sub-sample rolling window approach using monthly data series to find the causal relationship between remittances (REM and the exchange rate (EXR. The System GMM results reveal that remittances depreciate the exchange rate and have a positive influence on export competitiveness. In addition to this, the remittance inflow appreciates the exchange rate only if it is used for savings and negatively affects competitiveness if it is channeled towards consumption. The change in exchange rate regime from multiple to flexible depreciated the exchange rate while, the global financial crises uplifted the currency rate and negatively affect the exports. The results show the bidirectional causal relationship between remittances and the exchange rate. The outcomes further reveal that the parameters in the VAR model are unstable, which is a clear indication of the presence of structural changes. The rolling window estimation approach with time-varying characteristics finds bi-directional causality between REM and the EXR in the different sub-samples. The results of this study fall in line with the portfolio model proposed by Mussa (1984 which states that the flow of remittances causes appreciation. The sub-sample causality is related to significant economic events, which means the results are not a statistical artifact.

  2. A comparative study of United States and China exchange rate behavior: A co integration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shafi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates always affect the prices of the imports and export of products and services in which countries are trading with other parts of the world. Therefore, exchange rate calculation is one of the essential issues for making appropriate policies. This research investigates the determinants of trade, i.e. import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation, which bring changes in exchange rate and their influence eventually on balance of payments. Data of defined variables was collected on yearly basis for China and USA for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there existed a long run relationship in both countries. USA and China had significant and correct signs on the short run dynamic and some of the factors did not. Exchange rate did not granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment did not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinants of balance of trade could affect the exchange rates, also, these rates had considerable effect (positive or negative on balance of payments. In this twofold study, we found relationship of exchange rate with selected determinants of trade, and also examined their bilateral effect, and then made contrast of both countries.

  3. The Impact of Rate Design and Net Metering on the Bill Savings from Distributed PV for Residential Customers in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley; Darghouth, Naim R.; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan

    2011-06-01

    Net metering has become a widespread mechanism in the U.S. for supporting customer adoption of distributed photovoltaics (PV), but has faced challenges as PV installations grow to a larger share of generation in a number of states. This paper examines the value of the bill savings that customers receive under net metering, and the associated role of retail rate design, based on a sample of approximately two hundred residential customers of California's two largest electric utilities. We find that the bill savings per kWh of PV electricity generated varies by more than a factor of four across the customers in the sample, which is largely attributable to the inclining block structure of the utilities' residential retail rates. We also compare the bill savings under net metering to that received under three potential alternative compensation mechanisms, based on California's Market Price Referent (MPR). We find that net metering provides significantly greater bill savings than a full MPR-based feed-in tariff, but only modestly greater savings than alternative mechanisms under which hourly or monthly net excess generation is compensated at the MPR rate.

  4. Equilibrium exchange rate assessment in Serbia using the IMF external sustainability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pažun Brankica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate has always been a topical issue, particularly in the last two decades, at the time of strong world economy globalisation, as well as liberalization of international flows of goods, services and factors of production, which has resulted in stronger trade and financial integration. There has been a rise in the share of trade in world GDP. Growing developing countries contribute significantly to this growth, which is evident from the data that show increase of their share in world trade , as well as their importance in international capital flows. One of the most important concepts in open macroeconomics is the equilibrium real exchange rate - ERER. Deviations of the real exchange rate are considered to be the cause of the loss of competitiveness and economic slowdown, as well as possible currency crisis (overvaluation and undervaluation. Disadvantages of traditional concepts in exchange rate assessment which are very often reflected in unsuccessful empirical results, motivate experts to seek alternative models to assist in equilibrium exchange rate analysis. This paper aims to present one of three complementary methodologies used by the International Monetary Fund, for the equilibrium real exchange rate assessment in Serbia, as well as the deviation of the real exchange rate from its (estimated equilibrium, that is external sustainability approach.

  5. The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naghdi Yazdan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking, extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI. Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.

  6. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  7. Investigating the asymmetric relationship between inflation-output growth exchange rate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jenq Fei; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between inflation-output growth or output variation has long been studied. In this study, we extend the investigation under two exchange rate flexibility/regime in four Asian countries (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand) that have experienced drastic exchange rate regime changes aftermath the financial crisis of 1997. These countries have switched from fixed/rigid exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting (IT) regime after the crisis. Our main objective is to compare the inflation-output trade-off relationship in the pre-IT and post-IT periods as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes (increases and decreases). The data ranging from 1981M1 onwards till 2016M3. Our results show that exchange rate has asymmetric effect on inflation both short-run and long-run with larger impact in the post-IT period under flexible regime. Depreciation of exchange rate has leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, we find evidences on the relationship between inflation and growth in both short-run and long-run, but the trade-off only detected in the short run both in the pre- and post-IT periods.

  8. Exchange Rate Pass Throught: an Analysis for the Costarican Economy from 1991 to 2001

    OpenAIRE

    Leon, Jorge; Morera, Ana Patricia; Ramos, Welmer

    2001-01-01

    This paper estimates a coefficient of pass through for Costa Rica and tries to determine the importance of some factors that had been pointed out by several empiric studies as probable determinants (GDP gap, real exchange rate deviation from equilibrium, economy openness, and inflationary lag). The coefficient is estimated by OLS. In order to estimate the dynamic between exchange rate and inflation rate a VAR analysis is conducted. In the short run the pass through coefficient is 16% with two...

  9. Do Prices Determine Exchange Rate? -The Japanese Evidence for Purchasing Power Parity-

    OpenAIRE

    小島 平夫

    2010-01-01

    The longtime perplexing purchasing power parity(PPP) puz-zle has been recently resolved empirically by a pioneering financial-asset pricing approach. Applying the same extracted inflation rates, we estimate a vector error-correction(VEC) model of prices and the Japanese yen per U.S. dollar exchange rate, and find strong evidence supportive of (i) the PPP restriction which yields the equilibrium error in the form of a real exchange rate. Further, documented under the PPP relationship so detect...

  10. International Risk Sharing and the Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Hsieh, David A

    1982-01-01

    This paper examines the argument that the fixed exchange rate regime should be preferred to the flexible rate regime because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two-country overlapping generations model, where markets are incomplete under either exchange regime. In this second best world, it is demonstrated that the ability to share risk across countries in the fixed rate regime does not necessarily lead to higher welfare t...

  11. Data filtering and expected muon and neutrino event rates in the KM3NeT neutrino telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shanidze, Rezo [ECAP, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erwin-Rommel-Str.1, 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Collaboration: ANTARES-KM3NeT-Erlangen-Collaboration

    2011-07-01

    KM3NeT is a future Mediterranean deep sea neutrino telescope with an instrumented volume of several cubic kilometres. The neutrino and muon events in KM3NeT will be reconstructed from the signals collected from the telescope's photo detectors. However, in the deep sea the dominant source of photon signals are the decays of K40 nuclei and bioluminescence. The selection of neutrino and muon events requires the implementation of fast and efficient data filtering algorithms for the reduction of accidental background event rates. Possible data filtering and triggering schemes for the KM3NeT neutrino telescope and expected muon and neutrino event rates are discussed.

  12. Inferring CO2 Fluxes from OCO-2 for Assimilation into Land Surface Models to Calculate Net Ecosystem Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prouty, R.; Radov, A.; Halem, M.; Nearing, G. S.

    2016-12-01

    Investigations of mid to high latitude atmospheric CO2 show a growing seasonal amplitude. Land surface models poorly predict net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and are unable to substantiate these sporadic observations. An investigation of how the biosphere has reacted to changes in atmospheric CO2 is essential to our understanding of potential climate-vegetation feedbacks. A global, seasonal investigation of CO2-flux is then necessary in order to assimilate into land surface models for improving the prediction of annual NEE. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM) of DOE collects CO2-flux measurements (in addition to CO2 concentration and various other meteorological quantities) at several towers located around the globe at half hour temporal frequencies. CO2-fluxes are calculated via the eddy covariance technique, which utilizes CO2-densities and wind velocities to calculate CO2-fluxes. The global coverage of CO2 concentrations as provided by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) provide satellite-derived CO2 concentrations all over the globe. A framework relating the satellite-inferred CO2 concentrations collocated with the ground-based ARM as well as Ameriflux stations would enable calculations of CO2-fluxes far from the station sites around the entire globe. Regression techniques utilizing deep-learning neural networks may provide such a framework. Additionally, meteorological reanalysis allows for the replacement of the ARM multivariable meteorological variables needed to infer the CO2-fluxes. We present the results of inferring CO2-fluxes from OCO-2 CO2 concentrations for a two year period, Sept. 2014- Sept. 2016 at the ARM station located near Oklahoma City. A feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is used to infer relationships between the following data sets: F([ARM CO2-density], [ARM Meteorological Data]) = [ARM CO2-Flux] F([OCO-2 CO2-density],[ARM Meteorological Data]) = [ARM CO2-Flux] F([ARM CO2-density],[Meteorological Reanalysis]) = [ARM CO2-Flux

  13. Analysis of the influence of climatic and physiological parameters on the net ecosystem carbon exchange of an apple orchard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanotelli, Damiano; Montagnani, Leonardo; Scandellari, Francesca; Tagliavini, Massimo

    2013-04-01

    Net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) of an apple orchard located in South Tyrol (Caldaro, Bolzano, Italy) was monitored continuously since March 2009 via eddy covariance technique. Contemporary measurements of the main environmental parameters (temperature, photosynthetic active photon flux density, soil water content, vapor pressure deficit) were taken at the same field site. Leaf Area Index was also determined biometrically starting from spring 2010. Objectives of this work were (i) to assess the influence of these environmental and physiological parameters on NEE, (ii) to set up a model capable to fill large gap occurring in the dataset and (iii) predict inter-annual variability of fluxes based on the measurements of the selected explanatory variables. Daily cumulated values of the response variable (NEE, g C d-1) and mean daily value of the five explanatory variables considered (air T, ° C; SWC, m3m-3; PPFD, μmol m-2s-1; VPD, hPa, LAI m2m-2) were used in this analysis. The complex interactions between the explanatory variables and NEE were analyzed with the tree model approach which draws a picture of the complexity of data structure and highlights the explanatory variable that explain the greater amount of deviance of the response variable. NEE variability was mostly explained by LAI and PPFD. The most positive values of NEE occurred below the LAI threshold of 1.16 m2m-2 while above that LAI threshold and with an average daily PPFD above 13.2 μmol m-2s-1, the orchard resulted always a sink of carbon (negative daily NEE). On half of the available data (only alternate months of the considered period were considered), a stepwise multiple regression approach was used to model NEE using the variables indicated above. Simplification by deletion of the non-significant terms was carried out until all parameters where highly significant (p analysis, the model was further improved by transforming the linear predictor. Akaikés Information Criterion (AIC) was used to

  14. Current net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in a young mixed forest: any heritage from the previous ecosystem?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Violette, Aurélie; Heinesch, Bernard; Erpicum, Michel; Carnol, Monique; Aubinet, Marc; François, Louis

    2013-04-01

    For 15 years, networks of flux towers have been developed to determine accurate carbon balance with the eddy-covariance method and determine if forests are sink or source of carbon. However, for prediction of the evolution of carbon cycle and climate, major uncertainties remain on the ecosystem respiration (Reco, which includes the respiration of above ground part of trees, roots respiration and mineralization of the soil organic matter), the gross primary productivity (GPP) and their difference, the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of forests. These uncertainties are consequences of spatial and inter-annual variability, driven by previous and current climatic conditions, as well as by the particular history of the site (management, diseases, etc.). In this study we focus on the carbon cycle in two mixed forests in the Belgian Ardennes. The first site, Vielsalm, is a mature stand mostly composed of beeches (Fagus sylvatica) and douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) from 80 to 100 years old. The second site, La Robinette, was covered before 1995 with spruces. After an important windfall and a clear cutting, the site was replanted, between 1995 and 2000, with spruces (Piceas abies) and deciduous species (mostly Betula pendula, Aulnus glutinosa and Salix aurita). The challenge here is to highlight how initial conditions can influence the current behavior of the carbon cycle in a growing stand compared to a mature one, where initial conditions are supposed to be forgotten. A modeling approach suits particularly well for sensitivity tests and estimation of the temporal lag between an event and the ecosystem response. We use the forest ecosystem model ASPECTS (Rasse et al., Ecological Modelling 141, 35-52, 2001). This model predicts long-term forest growth by calculating, over time, hourly NEE. It was developed and already validated on the Vielsalm forest. Modelling results are confronted to eddy-covariance data on both sites from 2006 to 2011. The main difference between both

  15. Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rafael de Oliveira Felício

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic fundamentals commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate. The paper also links the information contained in the factors to global shocks like the demand for dollars - a "dollar effect", volatility and liquidity of global financial markets.

  16. Impacts of Exchange Rate Regime Choice on Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rüstem Yanar

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regime choice on macroeconomic performance after Bretton Woods in emerging market countries. It is studied especially inflation, growth and financial crises. It’s found that for emerging market countries, fixed regimes are associated with lower inflation than floats. On growth effect of exchange rate regime choice is not same all period. Fixed regimes are associated with faster growth but after 1990 fixed regimes brought about slower growth. At the same time, fixed exchange rate regimes are associated with financial fragility after 1990 in emerging markets

  17. An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997

    OpenAIRE

    José Manuel Campa; P.H. Kevin Chang; James F. Refalo

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the crawling peg' and target zone ( maxiband') regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange...

  18. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...

  19. The Importance of Corporate Foreign Debt in Managing Exchange Rate Exposure in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2006-01-01

    This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non-financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency (foreign debt) is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relative...

  20. Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in the Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange of a Pasture in the Three-River Source Region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang

    Full Text Available Carbon dioxide (CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and grassland ecosystems is very important for the global carbon balance. To assess the CO2 flux and its relationship to environmental factors, the eddy covariance method was used to evaluate the diurnal cycle and seasonal pattern of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE of a cultivated pasture in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from January 1 to December 31, 2008. The diurnal variations in the NEE and ecosystem respiration (Re during the growing season exhibited single-peak patterns, the maximum and minimum CO2 uptake observed during the noon hours and night; and the maximum and minimum Re took place in the afternoon and early morning, respectively. The minimum hourly NEE rate and the maximum hourly Re rate were -7.89 and 5.03 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1, respectively. The NEE and Re showed clear seasonal variations, with lower values in winter and higher values in the peak growth period. The highest daily values for C uptake and Re were observed on August 12 (-2.91 g C m-2 d-1 and July 28 (5.04 g C m-2 day-1, respectively. The annual total NEE and Re were -140.01 and 403.57 g C m-2 year-1, respectively. The apparent quantum yield (α was -0.0275 μmol μmol-1 for the entire growing period, and the α values for the pasture's light response curve varied with the leaf area index (LAI, air temperature (Ta, soil water content (SWC and vapor pressure deficit (VPD. Piecewise regression results indicated that the optimum Ta and VPD for the daytime NEE were 14.1°C and 0.65 kPa, respectively. The daytime NEE decreased with increasing SWC, and the temperature sensitivity of respiration (Q10 was 3.0 during the growing season, which was controlled by the SWC conditions. Path analysis suggested that the soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm (Tsoil was the most important environmental factor affecting daily variations in NEE during the growing season, and the photosynthetic photon

  1. Low inflation, a high net savings surplus and institutional restrictions keep the Japanese long-term interest rate low

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Pieter W.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explains that the interest rate on long-term Japanese government bonds is low in comparison with other industrialised countries for four main reasons: lower inflation, net savings surplus, institutional restrictions and home bias. Monetary policy and institutionalised purchases of

  2. Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması Döviz Kuru Kanalı: Türkiye Örneği(Monetary Transmission Mechanism Exchange Rate Channel: The Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgül CAMBAZOĞLU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Monetary transmission mechanism used by monetary authorities in determining the relationship between real economy and monetary targets are fundamentally classified as traditional interest rate channel, other asset prices channel, expectations channel and credit channel. Exchange rate channel which is analyzed under the scope of other asset prices channel and effective on the net export volume, has gained importance through widespread use of flexible exchange rate system with the increase of globalization. In this study, the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism exchange rate channel on total output and price level is analyzed by using VAR model for Turkey which has adopted flexible exchange rate regime. As a result of the test with a total of five macroeconomic variables, short-run interest rate, real effective exchange rate, net export volume, consumer price index and industrial production index, for the period of 2003:01-2010:08, it is found that the exchange rate channel which includes the effects of interest rate channel is effective in Turkey.

  3. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Real Exchange Rate: Anecdotal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In macroeconomics theory of open economies, it is argued that an adverse fiscal imbalance results into a higher real interest rate. In turn the higher real interest rate reduces net foreign investment and that this leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency. This study is a preliminary empirical investigation of the extent to ...

  4. Net Metering and Market Feedback Loops: Exploring the Impact of Retail Rate Design on Distributed PV Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darghouth, Naïm R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-01-13

    The substantial increase in deployment of customer-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States has been driven by a combination of steeply declining costs, financing innovations, and supportive policies. Among those supportive policies is net metering, which in most states effectively allows customers to receive compensation for distributed PV generation at the full retail electricity price. The current design of retail electricity rates and the presence of net metering have elicited concerns that the possible under-recovery of fixed utility costs from PV system owners may lead to a feedback loop of increasing retail prices that accelerate PV adoption and further rate increases. However, a separate and opposing feedback loop could offset this effect: increased PV deployment may lead to a shift in the timing of peak-period electricity prices that could reduce the bill savings received under net metering where time-varying retail electricity rates are used, thereby dampening further PV adoption. In this paper, we examine the impacts of these two competing feedback dynamics on U.S. distributed PV deployment through 2050 for both residential and commercial customers, across states. Our results indicate that, at the aggregate national level, the two feedback effects nearly offset one another and therefore produce a modest net effect, although their magnitude and direction vary by customer segment and by state. We also model aggregate PV deployment trends under various rate designs and net-metering rules, accounting for feedback dynamics. Our results demonstrate that future adoption of distributed PV is highly sensitive to retail rate structures. Whereas flat, time-invariant rates with net metering lead to higher aggregate national deployment levels than the current mix of rate structures (+5% in 2050), rate structures with higher monthly fixed customer charges or PV compensation at levels lower than the full retail rate can dramatically erode aggregate customer

  5. PEE-PEO block copolymer exchange rate between micelles is detergent and temperature activated

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schantz, Allen; Saboe, Patrick; Lee, Hee-Young; Sines, Ian; Butler, Paul; Bishop, Kyle; Maranas, Janna; Kumar, Manish

    We examine the kinetics of polymer chain exchange between polymer/detergent micelles, a system relevant to the synthesis of protein-containing biomimetic membranes. Although chain exchange between polymer aggregates in water is too slow to observe, adding detergent allows us to determine chain exchange rates using time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering (TR-SANS). We examine a membrane-protein-relevant, vesicle-forming ultra-short polymer, Poly(ethyl ethylene)20-Poly(ethylene oxide)18 (PEE20-PEO18). PEE20-PEO18 is solubilized in mixed micelles with the membrane-protein-compatible non-ionic detergent octyl- β -D-glucoside (OG). We show that OG activates block copolymer exchange, and obtain rate constants at two detergent concentrations above the CMC (critical micellar concentration) of OG. We find that chain exchange increases two orders of magnitude when temperature increases from 308 to 338 K, and that even a 1 mg/mL increase in OG concentration leads to a noticeable increase in exchange rate. We also calculate the activation energy for chain exchange and find that it is much higher than for lipid exchange. These findings explain the need for high detergent concentration and/or temperature to synthesize densely packed polymer/protein membranes.

  6. The evolutionary synchronization of the exchange rate system in ASEAN+6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaobing; Hu, Haibo; Wang, Xiaofan

    2010-12-01

    Although there are extensive researches on the behavior of the world currency network, the complexity of the Asian regional currency system is not well understood regardless of its importance. Using daily exchange rates this paper examines exchange rate co-movements in the region before and after the China exchange rate reform. It was found that the correlation between Asian currencies and the US Dollar, the previous regional key currency has become weaker and intra-Asia interactions have increased. Cross sample entropy and cross entropy approaches are also applied to examine the synchrony behavior among the Asian currencies. The study also shows that the Asian exchange rate markets featured are neither stochastic nor efficient. These findings may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of collective behaviors in a regional currency network; they will also lay a theoretical foundation for further policy formulation in Asian currency integration.

  7. THE CONCEPT OF FTS ANYLYSIS IN FORECASTING TRENDS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ireneusz Miciula

    2014-01-01

    .... Significant perturbations and high volatility have also been observed in the forex market. The purpose of this article is to determine which variables from the financial and commodity market affect the exchange rate changes...

  8. EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND U.S. AUTO-INDUSTRY EXPORTS: A PANEL COINTEGRATION APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veysel Avsar

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Intermediate goods are often neglected in the empirical studies of the impact of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Using import unit values of 58 motor vehicle products and 193 auto-parts, which are classified by the 10-digit level of Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS, this study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the U.S. automotive industry exports and imports (both motor-vehicle products and auto-parts from 37 major trading partners for the period of 1996.01 to 2008.4 by using panel data cointegration techniques. We obtain substantial heterogeneity in terms of the impact of exchange rate volatility for final and intermediate goods. We also find support for the positive hypothesis that exchange rate volatility may lead to greater levels of trade.

  9. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  10. Dataset for Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based exposure modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset provides the city-specific air exchange rate measurements, modeled, literature-based as well as housing characteristics. This dataset is associated with...

  11. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Malaysia before the Asian Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Umezaki, So

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium- and long-term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the central bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: ...

  12. Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, Melbourne (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Prasad, Arti [Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University (Australia)

    2008-09-15

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji-US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000-2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar. (author)

  13. The Role of Exchange Rates in Korea’s Commodity Trade with China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gab-Je Jo

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I investigate the link between Korea's trade balance and the exchange rate, using both aggregated and disaggregated data. Employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error-correction modeling, when I use the aggregate trade balance as a dependent variable, I find no support for the J-curve in the short-run; and also find that in the long-run, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the trade balance. However, in both the short and the long-run, I find that the exchange rate does not play a significant role in deterIn this paper I investigate the link between Korea's trade balance and the exchange rate, using both aggregated and disaggregated data. Employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error-correction modeling, when I use the aggregate trade balance as a dependent variable, I find no support for the J-curve in the short-run; and also find that in the long-run, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the trade balance. However, in both the short and the long-run, I find that the exchange rate does not play a significant role in determining the bilateral trade balance between Korea and China, nor does it improve the disaggregated trade balance. This is because the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance depends on the nature of the commodity. Especially if the commodity is an intermediate good or a raw material, the exchange rate elasticity in trade balance could be inelastic because the demand for the intermediate good is a derived demand from the final good.

  14. The contribution of the ECU to exchange rate stability. A reply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. JAGER

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A brief reply to Sarcinelli’s criticism of the authors’ article The private ECU’s potential impact on Global and European exchange-rate stability (1988. The authors rebut the criticisms and seek to clarify their reasoning. They maintain their core hypothesis that the growth of the ECU does not necessarily enhance the stability of exchange rates but may lead to instability too.

  15. Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices

    OpenAIRE

    Bofinger, Peter; Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert

    2004-01-01

    The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient outcome stems from the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be taken from the behavioura...

  16. Import Response to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Micro-level Investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Yao Amber Li; Jenny Xu; Carol Zhao Chen

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents theory and evidence on firms' import responses to exchange rate fluctuations using disaggregated Chinese imports data. The paper develops a heterogeneous-firm trade model that predicts import responses at both extensive and intensive margins as well as the more profound adjustment under ordinary trade than processing trade. Next, the paper empirically investigates import responses to exchange rate fluctuations at extensive and intensive margins in both the short run and th...

  17. Exchange rate pass-through to various price indices: Empirical estimation using vector error correction models

    OpenAIRE

    Bachmann, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    The extent to which exchange rate fluctuations are passed through to domestic prices is of high relevance for open economies and for monetary authorities targeting price stability. Existing empirical studies estimating the exchange rate pass-through for Switzerland are based on either single equation estimation or on VAR models. However, these approaches feature some major drawbacks. The former cannot account for dynamic interactions between the time series and both methods disregard long-run...

  18. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing: Evidence from Fixed Exchange Rate Episodes

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; C.J.M. Kool

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing applied to fixed exchange rate regimes. We calculate risk-sharing indices for two episodes of fixed or very rigid exchange rates: the Eurozone before and after the introduction of the Euro, and several emerging economies in the period 1993-2005. This approach suggests almost perfect bilateral risk-sharing among all countries from the Eurozone. Moreover, it implies that emerging markets with f...

  19. Value at risk using financial copulas: Application to the Mexican exchange rate (2002-2011)

    OpenAIRE

    Plascencia Cuevas, Tania Nadiezhda

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, the volatility of exchange rate is a crucial and a transcendental issue for all transactions, negotiations and operations taking place in foreign currency, being an objective and an accurate prediction the cornerstone. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to analyze whether the Mexican exchange rate market, risk assessment using traditional VaR and VaR with copulas methodologies are more accurate when the estimates are made for a wide historical time-series or two perio...

  20. Determination of the Electron Self-Exchange Rates of Blue Copper Proteins by Super-WEFT NMR Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Lixin; Philipp, Else Astrid; Led, Jens J.

    2001-01-01

    Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR......Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR...

  1. FINANCIAL AND LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES ON BANK EXTERNAL TRADING OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignat Papazov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The term "currency" has different meanings but is usually defined as any means of payment that is not in local currency units. The ratio between the foreign currency and local currency units results into exchange rate. When arranging payment transactions abroad, local entities - natural and legal persons must exchange their national currency in advance for the currency of the country in which they are due or in another currency commonly accepted as an international payment. Under this regime, the national currency is quoted in relation to another currency, that is exchange rate.

  2. Stationarity test with a direct test for heteroskedasticity in exchange rate forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khin, Aye Aye; Chau, Wong Hong; Seong, Lim Chee; Bin, Raymond Ling Leh; Teng, Kevin Low Lock

    2017-05-01

    Global economic has been decreasing in the recent years, manifested by the greater exchange rates volatility on international commodity market. This study attempts to analyze some prominent exchange rate forecasting models on Malaysian commodity trading: univariate ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH models in conjunction with stationarity test on residual diagnosis direct testing of heteroskedasticity. All forecasting models utilized the monthly data from 1990 to 2015. Given a total of 312 observations, the data used to forecast both short-term and long-term exchange rate. The forecasting power statistics suggested that the forecasting performance of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is more efficient than the ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) models. For ex-post forecast, exchange rate was increased from RM 3.50 per USD in January 2015 to RM 4.47 per USD in December 2015 based on the baseline data. For short-term ex-ante forecast, the analysis results indicate a decrease in exchange rate on 2016 June (RM 4.27 per USD) as compared with 2015 December. A more appropriate forecasting method of exchange rate is vital to aid the decision-making process and planning on the sustainable commodities' production in the world economy.

  3. The performance of one belt and one road exchange rate: Based on improved singular spectrum analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Lin; Guo, Kun

    2017-10-01

    ;One Belt and One Road; strategy in China is on push of foreign trade openness at northwest, southwest and northeast, absorption of the excess capacity and new support for economic increase. However, the fluctuation in RMB exchange rate with the countries along the road is unstable so related Chinese enterprises will face high risk of exchange rate. Precise explanation or prediction for exchange rate has been the challengeable hop point in the international finance. This paper decomposed the One Belt One Road Exchange Rate Index (OBORR) and the RMB Effective Exchange Rate Index (CNYX) into trend term, market fluctuation term and noise term using improved singular spectrum analysis (SSA). It turns out that the increasing velocity of OBORR is greater than that of CNYX in the long term, and there is dynamic lead-lag structure in the medium term. In the short term, the fluctuation range and frequency of OBORR are greater than those of CNYX, which means there will be more exchange rate risks in One Belt and One Road countries.

  4. Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Muntazir; Zebende, Gilney Figueira; Bashir, Usman; Donghong, Ding

    2017-01-01

    Most empirical literature investigates the relation between oil prices and exchange rate through different models. These models measure this relationship on two time scales (long and short terms), and often fail to observe the co-movement of these variables at different time scales. We apply a detrended cross-correlation approach (DCCA) to investigate the co-movements of the oil price and exchange rate in 12 Asian countries. This model determines the co-movements of oil price and exchange rate at different time scale. The exchange rate and oil price time series indicate unit root problem. Their correlation and cross-correlation are very difficult to measure. The result becomes spurious when periodic trend or unit root problem occurs in these time series. This approach measures the possible cross-correlation at different time scale and controlling the unit root problem. Our empirical results support the co-movements of oil prices and exchange rate. Our results support a weak negative cross-correlation between oil price and exchange rate for most Asian countries included in our sample. The results have important monetary, fiscal, inflationary, and trade policy implications for these countries.

  5. Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Thorstensen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

  6. Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martins Iyoboyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP in Nigeria over the period 1961–2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other associated variables. The empirical results are in favour of bidirectional causality between BOP and other variables employed. Results of the generalized impulse response functions suggest that one standard deviation innovation on exchange rate reduces positive BOP in the medium and long term, while results of the variance decomposition indicate that a significant variation in Nigeria’s BOP is not due to changes in exchange rate movements. The policy implication is that exchange rate depreciation which has been preponderant in Nigeria since the mid-1980s has not been very useful in promoting the country’s positive BOP. It is recommended that growth in the real sector should be improved to enhance exports, create employment, curb inflation and reduce poverty, while cutting non-productive imports, attracting foreign private investment and implementing well coordinated macroeconomic policies that impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.

  7. The Role of Private Information in Short-term Fluctuations of Won/Dollar Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haesik Park

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have examined the short-run movement of the won/dollar exchange rate using information obtained from the inter-bank market in Korea. First, we constructed the hourly measure of excess demand for dollar and used it as a proxy for the trading pattern of market participants. To construct this time series, we relied on the bid and ask won/dollar exchange rates collected on the two-minute interval. We then estimated the structural VAR model consisting of the actually observed won/dollar exchange rate and the proxied trading pattern of market participants to see if private information, as opposed to public information, is relevant for explaining the hourly movement of the won/dollar exchange rate. Private information is found to account for more 30% of hourly variations of the won/dollar exchange rate. Next, we constructed the trading pattern of market participants on a daily basis using the same data set employed to build the hourly measure. We then examined whether private information is useful for predicting the daily won/dollar exchange rate movement. We found that the forecast model using both private and public information reduces out-of-sample forecast errors of an alternative model relying only on public information by 20~25%. Also, the out-of-sample forecast of the model using both private and public information is found to be more accurate than the random walk model.

  8. Net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and evapotranspiration response of a high elevation Rocky Mountain (Wyoming, USA) forest to a bark beetle epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, J. M.; Massman, W. J.; Ewers, B. E.

    2011-12-01

    Bark beetle epidemics have caused major disturbance in the forests of western North America where significant tree mortality alters the balance of ecosystem photosynthesis, carbon balance, and water exchange. In this study we investigate the change in the growing-season light-response of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) in a high elevation Rocky Mountain forest over the three years preceding and three years following a bark beetle outbreak. The GLEES AmeriFlux site (southeastern Wyoming, USA) is located in a high elevation subalpine forest dominated by Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) and recently experienced an epidemic of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis). The peak beetle outbreak occurred in 2008, and has impacted 35% of the stems and 90% of the basal area of Engelmann spruce, which accounts for 30% of the trees and 70% of the basal area of the forest. Two semi-empirical light response curves for eddy-covariance carbon flux were compared, with a logistic sigmoid performing better because of residual bias than a rectangular hyperbola (Michaelis-Menten) at estimating the quantum yield of photosynthesis. In the first two years after the peak beetle outbreak the original quantum yield of 0.015 mol mol-1 was reduced by 25%. By the third year it was reduced by a half, which was composed of declines of 45% in the ecosystem's responses to diffuse radiation and 60% to direct radiation. The light-saturated rate of photosynthesis decreased by 10% in the first two years post outbreak, and fell by 40% in the third year. After the peak outbreak, the cumulative NEE over the growing season was reduced by over a half from a sink of 185 gC m-2 to 80 gC m-2, and by the third year it was reduced to near zero, or carbon neutral. The change in the ET response to light was similar in all years after the peak outbreak where the slope of the response curve was decreased by 25%. This led to a

  9. 73 Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria (Pp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    2011-07-21

    Jul 21, 2011 ... international economic transactions because no nation can remain in autarky due to varying factor endowment. Movements in the exchange rate have ripple effects on other economic variables such as interest rate, inflation rate, unemployment, money supply, etc. These facts underscore the importance of.

  10. Estimating the effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Stock ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The interest rate also showed a negative relationship but insignificant at the chosen 5% level of significance. This study recommended that policy makers should put in place measures that will ensure a stable macroeconomic environment since an unstable macroeconomic environment can deter investors and make them ...

  11. Multimedia Information eXchange for I-NET, Inc. at the Kennedy Space Center: A continuing study of the application of worldwideweb technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, David

    1995-01-01

    Multimedia Information eXchange (MIX) is a multimedia information system that accommodates multiple data types and provides consistency across platforms. Information from all over the world can be accessed quickly and efficiently with the Internet-based system. I-NET's MIX uses the World Wide Web and Mosaic graphical user interface. Mosaic is available on all platforms used at I-NET's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) facilities. Key information system design concepts and benefits are reviewed. The MIX system also defines specific configuration and helper application parameters to ensure consistent operations across the entire organization. Guidelines and procedures for other areas of importance in information systems design are also addressed. Areas include: code of ethics, content, copyright, security, system administration, and support.

  12. Examination of the effects of public spending and trade policy on real exchange rate in Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victalice Ngimanang ACHAMOH

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The study adopts the inter-temporal model of Rodríguez (1989 and Edward (1989 extended in Elbadawi and Soto (1997 to empirically examine the effect of public expenditure and trade openness on the real exchange rate using Cameroon data from 1977 to 2010. After exploring some issues on exchange rate and reviewing the relevant literature, the study employs residual based-cointegration technique. All the variables were stationary at level form or first differences. Public spending significantly appreciates the real exchange likewise the trade openness variable in the longrun. The results of the study suggests that appreciation of real exchange rate could be prevented by contracting public spending or adopting restrictive trade measures especially in the long run.

  13. THREATS AND BENEFITS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES FOR UKRAINE IN TERMS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Glushchenko

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to determine threats and benefits of exchange rate regimes in terms of the integration of Ukraine into the European community. Emphasizing features of the manifestation of currency exchange rate in Ukrainian practice is a precondition for choosing the optimal exchange rate regime for Ukraine, which, in its turn, will provide an opportunity to reduce inflation and implement effective tools of monetary and fiscal policies to promote further economic growth and competitiveness of the country. The uses of free-floating exchange rate and «currency board» regimes have either positive effects for Ukraine or certain threats. Methodology. This research is based on a synthesis of data on the uses of exchange rate regimes in Ukraine as an independent. It is considered angular regimes, which are by far the most suitable for Ukraine in terms of the European vector of its development. Peculiarities of using these regimes are revealed and their major threats to the domestic economy are pointed out. This article analyzes the dynamics of the trade balance of payments of Ukraine, the dynamics of the commodity structure of Ukraine`s exports and imports and the external debt of Ukraine. Results. Taking into account the experience of countries, which were in crisis situations, they show the necessity of the uses of freefloating exchange rate regime and possibilities of «currency board» regime, despite threats that they may have. World experience testifies the implementation of structural reforms, effective monetary policy, fiscal policy and discipline of the government. Thorough preparation of Ukraine’s transition to the «currency board» regime can justify itself in conditions of crisis and provide impetus to Ukrainian economy benefits. The paper defines conditions under which the success of a new model of exchange rate policy will be achieved. Practical implications. The study accents attention on the specifics of the uses of the

  14. Gill net selectivity and catch rates of pelagic fish in tropical coastal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The fish species and size selectivity of gillnets design with monofilament nylon polyethylene netting materials were investigated in Lagos Lagoon, Nigeria between September and December 2005. The gillnets floats and sinkers were improvised from rubber slippers and lead metallic objects which were attached at intervals ...

  15. An empirical study of exchange rate pass-through in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xiaowen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, this paper finds that, with the fixed exchange rate regime, CPI pass-through remains higher. The exchange rate regimes influence on CPI pass through, combined with the fact that appreciation diminishes inflation, suggests that the Chinese government could pursue a more flexible exchange rate policy. In addition, reasons for low exchange rate pass-through for CPI are analyzed. The analysis considers price control, basket and weight of Chinese price indices, distribution cost, and imported and non-tradable share of inputs.

  16. Gas exchange rates, plant height, yield components, and productivity of upland rice as affected by plant regulators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita de Cássia Félix Alvarez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate gas exchange rates, plant height, yield components, and productivity of upland rice, as affected by type and application time of plant growth regulators. A randomized block design, in a 4x2 factorial arrangement, with four replicates was used. Treatments consisted of three growth regulators (mepiquat chloride, trinexapac-ethyl, and paclobutrazol, besides a control treatment applied at two different phenological stages: early tillering or panicle primordial differentiation. The experiment was performed under sprinkler-irrigated field conditions. Net CO2 assimilation, stomatal conductance, plant transpiration, and water-use efficiency were measured four times in Primavera upland rice cultivar, between booting and milky grain phenophases. Gas exchange rates were neither influenced by growth regulators nor by application time. There was, however, interaction between these factors on the other variables. Application of trinexapac-ethyl at both tillering and differentiation stages reduced plant height and negatively affected yield components and rice productivity. However, paclobutrazol and mepiquat chloride applied at tillering, reduced plant height without affecting rice yield. Mepiquat chloride acted as a growth stimulator when applied at the differentiation stage, and significantly increased plant height, panicle number, and grain yield of upland rice.

  17. Foreign capital and the impact of exchange rate adjustments in oil-exporting developing countries with an application to Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tadjuddin, A.

    1989-01-01

    The efficacy of exchange rate adjustments as an instrument of economic policy in developing countries has long been the subject of considerable controversy. Theoretical treatments of currency devaluation generally conclude that it improves the trade balance and stimulates economic activity. However, this traditional view has been challenged in recent years on the grounds that trade flows, including factor imports, are relatively insensitive to price and exchange rate changes, especially in developing countries. This study analyzes the effects of exchange rate changes in oil exporting developing countries which host foreign capital by using a modified model of the Krugman-Taylor (l978) and Barbone-Batiz (1987) types. It is shown that the impact of devaluation on GNP is influenced by (a) the initial state of the current account balance, (b) the elasticity of demand for non-oil exports, (c) the elasticity of demand for final good imports, (d) the foreign ownership effects, and (e) the impact of devaluation on the government revenues. Devaluation can lead to an increase in national output, but only if the elasticity effects in the non-oil export sector and in the final good imports are large enough to dominate the government revenue effect, the foreign-ownership effect in the oil sector and the impact of any initial current account deficit. The model was applied to the economy of Indonesia, an oil exporting developing country. The net effect of devaluation on national output is known to be contradictory following devaluation, thus supporting the structuralist view that devaluation has negative real effects in this country, at least in the short run. It was also found that the estimated price elasticities of non-oil imports and exports are low in the short-run. Devaluation would lead to improvement in the non-oil trade account in the long run after devaluation.

  18. Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions, and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Hayes; David P. Turner; Graham Stinson; A. David Mcguire; Yaxing Wei; Tristram O. West; Linda S. Heath; Bernardus Dejong; Brian G. McConkey; Richard A. Birdsey; Werner A. Kurz; Andrew R. Jacobson; Deborah N. Huntzinger; Yude Pan; W. Mac Post; Robert B. Cook

    2012-01-01

    We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory-based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000-2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO2,...

  19. Latitudinal patterns of magnitude and interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange regulated by biological and environmental variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yuan, W.P.; Luo, Y.Q.; Richardson, A.D.; Oren, R.; Luyssaert, S.; Janssens, I.A.; Ceulemans, R.; Zhou, X.H.; Grunwald, T.; Aubinet, M.; Berhofer, C.; Baldocchi, D.D.; Chen, J.Q.; Dunn, A.L.; Deforest, J.L.; Dragoni, D.; Goldstein, A.H.; Moors, E.J.; Munger, J.W.; Monson, R.K.; Suyker, A.E.; Star, G.; Scott, R.L.; Tenhunen, J.; Verma, S.B.; Vesala, T.; Wofsy, S.

    2009-01-01

    Over the last two and half decades, strong evidence showed that the terrestrial ecosystems are acting as a net sink for atmospheric carbon. However the spatial and temporal patterns of variation in the sink are not well known. In this study, we examined latitudinal patterns of interannual

  20. Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Won/Dollar and Won/Yen Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghwan Oh

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines, using various models including a non-linear one, that the Balassa-Samuelson (BS effect can account for the persistence of deviations from PPP in the long-run movements of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rates. In test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using the generalized Johansen' cointegration method, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and the productivity variables of two countries. And in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates other fundamentals such as cumulative current account balance, foreign exchange reserve, terms of trade as well as productivity differentials, using a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and all of these fundamentals. However, the plus sign of the estimated coefficient of the productivity differentials variable, which means that domestic productivity improvement produces increase in each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate is not coincident with the result that the BS effect expects theoretically. Finally, in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using a non-linear STAR model, it is found that the adjustment process in case of won/dollar real exchange rate from the long-run equilibrium level can be adequately explained by a non-linear LSTAR model. But, the evidence of diagnostic statistics, which shows the existence of autocorrelation of the residuals in most of lags, might suggest the inadequacy of LSTAR model specification.

  1. Chaoticity in the time evolution of foreign currency exchange rates in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakar, O.; Aybar, O. O.; Hacinliyan, A. S.; Kusbeyzi, I.

    Tools from chaos theory that have found recent use in analysing financial markets have been applied to the US Dollar and Euro buying and selling rates against the Turkish currency. The reason for choosing the foreign exchange rate in this analysis is the fact that foreign currency is an indicator of not only the globalization of economy but also savings and investment. In order to test the globality assumption and to ascertain the degree of involvement of local conditions in Turkey, the Euro and US dollar exchange rates have been subjected to the same analysis.

  2. [Effects of lead stress on net photosynthetic rate, SPAD value and ginsenoside production in Ginseng (Panax ginseng)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yao; Jiang, Xiao-Li; Yang, Fen-Tuan; Cao, Qing-Jun; Li, Gang

    2014-08-01

    The paper aimed to evaluate the effects of lead stress on photosynthetic performance and ginsenoside content in ginseng (Panax ginseng). To accomplish this, three years old ginseng were cultivated in pot and in phytotron with different concentrations of lead, ranging from 0 to 1000 mg x kg(-1) soil for a whole growth period (about 150 days). The photosynthetic parameters in leaves and ginsenoside content in roots of ginseng were determined in green fruit stage and before withering stage, respectively. In comparison with the control, net photosynthetic rate and SPAD value in ginseng leaves cultivated with 100 and 250 mg x kg(-1) of lead changed insignificantly, however, ginseng supplied with 500 and 1 000 mg x kg(-1) of lead showed a noticeably decline in the net rate of photosynthesis and SPAD value (P lead, with decline of 57.8%,11.0%, respectively. Total content of ginsenoside in ginseng roots cultivated with 100 mg x kg(-1) of lead showed insignificantly change compared to the control, but the content increased remarkably in treatments supplied with 250, 500, 1 000 mg x kg(-1) of lead (P lead. The net photosynthetic rate and SPAD value in leaves of ginseng both showed significantly negative linear correlations with lead stress level (P lead concentration was also observed (P lead negatively affects photosynthetic performance in ginseng leaves, but benefits for accumulation of secondary metabolism (total content of ginsenoside) in ginseng root.

  3. A study on the effects of exchange rate and foreign policies on Iranians dates export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Khalighi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this research was studying the impact of exchange rate on date export as one of the most important and greatest foreign currency income earned horticultural products in agriculture sector in Iran. Selected time period in this study was chosen between 1991 and 2011. For this purpose, ordinary least squares (OLS method has used to estimate the relationships between the value of date export and the variables taken from stationary tests. Library research method has used for the analysis. In this regard, required data have collected from various scientific and research resources. The results indicated that, exchange rate is a crucial factor for dates export and also for exporters. In addition, other factors specially government policies have been placed in export model. In this field, short-term outsourcing foreign policy has decreased the export value. Results also showed that, applying exchange rate unification policy without an appropriate exchange rate to encourage exporters has negative impact on dates export. Therefore, by applying exchange rate stabilization policy, according to inflation in the country, the potential exporters’ income has reduced and production costs have increased alternately.

  4. The Effects of Exchange Rate Market in the Economy of Kosova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Argjira Kadrijaj Dushi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From a conducted centralized economy, Kosovo‟s economy became a free market after 1999. This made the economy of Kosovo to face a lot of challenges. One of them and still a topic not studied among Kosovo economists is the Kosovo currency. Kosovo is not yet a member of EU but since 2002 is using euro currency. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using euro currency for the economy of Kosovo? This was not questionable in 2002, because Kosovo was still in the first steps of creating a financial system. But, today the importance of exchange rates in economy is crucial as a result of the internationalization of businesses, the constant increase of world trade with the national one and the rapid change of money transfer technology. In this research, through quantitative and qualitative methods is analyzed the development of exchange rate market in Kosovo and the effects of exchange rates movements in Kosovo economy, its GDP and inflation and in consumer price index. The research will point out the importance of exchange rates as an interest variable for some of Kosovo businesses and its effects in the transition economy of Kosovo which has not been exposed to exchange rates risk on macroeconomic variables.

  5. Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic instabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaya Camara Seydou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses macroeconomic instabilities according to exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Based on International Monetary Fund's exchange rate regimes de facto classification, the global sample, SSA, is first divided into two subsamples, which are countries within CFA franc zone (ZCFA and those outside CFA franc zone (HZCFA, and then into four categories, which are the Western Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, the countries CFA franc zone with fix exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FIX, and the countries outside CFA franc zone with flexible exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FLEX. By applying advanced statistical and econometric methods upon internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium conditions, we show that the inflation, the GDP (or the output and the real exchange rate (RER are very volatile in SSA. However, we found out that they are more volatile in the group HZCFA comparatively to the group ZCFA. We also found out that they are higher in the group HZCFA-FIX than the group HZCFA-FLEX. Moreover, we found out that a high instability of the inflation is combined with those of the output and the RER.

  6. Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Li, Jianfeng; Zhou, Ying; Qian, Yubo

    2017-11-01

    This paper employs multifractal detrended analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to study cross-correlation behaviors between China's RMB exchange rate market and four international commodity markets, using a comprehensive set of data covering the period from 22 July 2005 to 15 March 2016. Our empirical results from MF-DFA indicate that the RMB exchange rate is the most inefficient among the 4 selected markets. The results from quantitative analysis have testified the existence of cross-correlations and the result from MF-DCCA have further confirmed a strong multifractal behavior between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets. We also demonstrate that the recent financial crisis has significant impact on the cross-correlated behavior. Through the rolling window analysis, we find that the RMB exchange rates and international commodity prices are anti-persistent cross-correlated. The main sources of multifractality in the cross-correlations are long-range correlations between RMB exchange rate and the aggregate commodity, energy and metals index.

  7. The adverse effect of real effective exchange rate change on trade balance in European transition countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selena Begović

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Most European transition countries have fixed or highly managed flexible exchange rate regimes. This exchange rate rigidity is sometimes argued to worsen the trade balance by keeping the currency overvalued. However, there is no unambiguous evidence that currency depreciation/devaluation positively affects trade balance and leads towards the adjustment, even in the short-run. Therefore, we examine the effect of real effective exchange rate (hereafter REER on trade balance in European transition economies over the period 2000-2015. By using fixed effect model for static and generalised method of moments for dynamic estimation, we find that there is an adverse effect of the REER on trade balance in European transition countries over the period 2000-2015. Namely, depreciation of REER deteriorates trade balance in European transition countries, which could be explained by high import dependence and low export capacity. This implies that policymakers in European transition countries should not use exchange rate policy to improve trade balance. This is important in the light of their accession towards European economic and monetary integration, implying that these countries should focus more on using fiscal, rather than monetary (and exchange rate, policy to adjust trade balance, which is one of the required real convergence towards the EU standards.

  8. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  9. Differences in plant cover and species composition of semiarid grassland communities of central Mexico and its effects on net ecosystem exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Delgado-Balbuena

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Changes in land use across the semiarid grasslands of northern Mexico have driven a decline of plant cover and alteration of plant species composition. A number of different plant communities have resulted from these changes. Their implications, however, on the carbon (C cycle and regional carbon balance are still poorly understood. Here, we examined the effects of plant cover loss and changes in species composition on net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE and their biotic and abiotic controls. NEE was measured in five representative plant community types within a semiarid grassland by temporarily enclosing the entire aboveground ecosystem using a chamber method (i.e., geodesic dome. Sites included an oat crop (crop, a moderately grazed grassland (moderate grazing, a 28 yr-old grazing exclosure (exclosure, an overgrazed site with low perennial grass cover (overgrazed, and an overgrazed site presenting shrub encroachment (shrub encroachment. For natural vegetation, rates of standardized daytime NEE for sites with a high plant cover (exclosure and moderate grazing were similar (P > 0.05 as compared to sites with low plant cover (overgrazed and shrub encroachment. However, yearly total nighttime NEE (carbon loss was more than double (P < 0.05 for sites with high plant cover compared to sites with low cover, resulting to slight C sinks for the low plant cover sites, and neutral or sources for the high plant cover sites as accounted by daytime and nighttime NEE annual balance. Differences in plant cover and its associated biomass defined the sensitivity to environmental controls. Thus, daytime NEE in low plant cover sites reached light compensation points at lower photosynthetic photon flux density than those from high plant cover sites. Differences in species composition did not influence NEE rates even though there were transient or permanent changes in C3 vs. C4 functional groups. Our results allowed the detection of the large variability and

  10. A new method to estimate photosynthetic parameters through net assimilation rate-intercellular space CO2 concentration (A-Ci ) curve and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moualeu-Ngangue, Dany P; Chen, Tsu-Wei; Stützel, Hartmut

    2017-02-01

    Gas exchange (GE) and chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) measurements are widely used to noninvasively study photosynthetic parameters, for example the rates of maximum Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax ), electron transport rate (J), daytime respiration (Rd ) and mesophyll conductance (gm ). Existing methods for fitting GE data (net assimilation rate-intercellular space CO2 concentration (A-Ci ) curve) are based on two assumptions: gm is unvaried with CO2 concentration in the intercellular space (Ci ); and light absorption (α) and the proportion of quanta absorbed by photosystem II (β) are constant in the data set. These may result in significant bias in estimating photosynthetic parameters. To avoid the above-mentioned hypotheses, we present a new method for fitting A-Ci curves and CF data simultaneously. This method was applied to a data set obtained from cucumber (Cucumis sativus) leaves of various leaf ages and grown under eight different light conditions. The new method had significantly lower root mean square error and a lower rate of failures compared with previously published methods (6.72% versus 24.1%, respectively) and the effect of light conditions on Vcmax and J was better observed. Furthermore, the new method allows the estimation of a new parameter, the fraction of incoming irradiance harvested by photosystem II, and the dependence of gm on Ci . © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  11. Environment or Development? Lifetime Net CO2 Exchange and Control of the Expression of Crassulacean Acid Metabolism in Mesembryanthemum crystallinum1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Klaus; Holtum, Joseph A.M.

    2007-01-01

    The relative influence of plant age and environmental stress signals in triggering a shift from C3 photosynthesis to Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) in the annual halophytic C3-CAM species Mesembryanthemum crystallinum was explored by continuously monitoring net CO2 exchange of whole shoots from the seedling stage until seed set. Plants exposed to high salinity (400 mm NaCl) in hydroponic culture solution or grown in saline-droughted soil acquired between 11% and 24% of their carbon via net dark CO2 uptake involving CAM. In contrast, plants grown under nonsaline, well-watered conditions were capable of completing their life cycle by operating in the C3 mode without ever exhibiting net CO2 uptake at night. These observations are not consistent with the widely expressed view that the induction of CAM by high salinity in M. crystallinum represents an acceleration of preprogrammed developmental processes. Rather, our study demonstrates that the induction of the CAM pathway for carbon acquisition in M. crystallinum is under environmental control. PMID:17056756

  12. Eddy covariance flux measurements of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange from a lowland peatland flux tower network in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Ross; Balzter, Heiko; Burden, Annette; Callaghan, Nathan; Cumming, Alenander; Dixon, Simon; Evans, Jonathan; Kaduk, Joerg; Page, Susan; Pan, Gong; Rayment, Mark; Ridley, Luke; Rylett, Daniel; Worrall, Fred; Evans, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Peatlands store disproportionately large amounts of soil carbon relative to other terrestrial ecosystems. Over recent decades, the large amount of carbon stored as peat has proved vulnerable to a range of land use pressures as well as the increasing impacts of climate change. In temperate Europe and elsewhere, large tracts of lowland peatland have been drained and converted to agricultural land use. Such changes have resulted in widespread losses of lowland peatland habitat, land subsidence across extensive areas and the transfer of historically accumulated soil carbon to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (CO2). More recently, there has been growth in activities aiming to reduce these impacts through improved land management and peatland restoration. Despite a long history of productive land use and management, the magnitude and controls on greenhouse gas emissions from lowland peatland environments remain poorly quantified. Here, results of surface-atmosphere measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) from a network of seven eddy covariance (EC) flux towers located at a range of lowland peatland ecosystems across the United Kingdom (UK) are presented. This spatially-dense peatland flux tower network forms part of a wider observation programme aiming to quantify carbon, water and greenhouse gas balances for lowland peatlands across the UK. EC measurements totalling over seventeen site years were obtained at sites exhibiting large differences in vegetation cover, hydrological functioning and land management. The sites in the network show remarkable spatial and temporal variability in NEE. Across sites, annual NEE ranged from a net sink of -194 ±38 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1 to a net source of 784±70 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1. The results suggest that semi-natural sites remain net sinks for atmospheric CO2. Sites that are drained for intensive agricultural production range from a small net sink to the largest observed source for atmospheric CO2 within the flux tower network

  13. Response of net ecosystem CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration of boreal forest ecosystems to projected future climate changes: results of a modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, Alexander; Kurbatova, Julia

    2014-05-01

    It is presented the modeling results describing the possible response of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary production, as well as evapotranspiration (ET) of spruce forest ecosystems situated at central part of European part of Russia at the southern boundary of boreal forest community to projected future changes of climatic conditions and forest species composition. A process-based MixFor-SVAT model (Olchev et al 2002, 2008, 2009) has been used to describe the CO2 and H2O fluxes under present and projected future climate conditions. The main advantage of MixFor-SVAT is its ability not only to describe seasonal and daily dynamics of total CO2 and H2O fluxes at an ecosystem level, but also to adequately estimate the contributions of soil, forest understorey, and various tree species in overstorey into total ecosystem fluxes taking into account their individual responses to changes in environmental conditions as well as the differences in structure and biophysical properties. Results of modeling experiments showed that projected changes of climate conditions (moderate scenario A1B IPCC) and forest species composition at the end of 21 century can lead to small increase of annual evapotranspiration as well as to growth of NEE, GPP and NPP of the forests in case if the projected increase in temperature and elevated CO2 in the atmosphere in future will be strictly balanced with growth of available nutrients and water in plant and soil. It is obvious that any deficit of e.g. nitrogen in leaves (due to reduced transpiration, nitrogen availability in soil, etc.) may lead to decreases in the photosynthesis and respiration rates of trees and, as a consequence, to decreases in the GPP and NEE of entire forest ecosystem. Conducted modeling experiments have demonstrated that a 20% reduction of available nitrogen in tree leaves in a monospesific spruce forest stand may result in a 14% decrease in NEE, a 8% decrease in NPP, and a 4% decrease in

  14. Gas exchange patterns and water loss rates in the Table Mountain cockroach, Aptera fusca (Blattodea: Blaberidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenewald, Berlizé; Bazelet, Corinna S; Potter, C Paige; Terblanche, John S

    2013-10-15

    The importance of metabolic rate and/or spiracle modulation for saving respiratory water is contentious. One major explanation for gas exchange pattern variation in terrestrial insects is to effect a respiratory water loss (RWL) saving. To test this, we measured the rates of CO2 and H2O release ( and , respectively) in a previously unstudied, mesic cockroach, Aptera fusca, and compared gas exchange and water loss parameters among the major gas exchange patterns (continuous, cyclic, discontinuous gas exchange) at a range of temperatures. Mean , and per unit did not differ among the gas exchange patterns at all temperatures (P>0.09). There was no significant association between temperature and gas exchange pattern type (P=0.63). Percentage of RWL (relative to total water loss) was typically low (9.79±1.84%) and did not differ significantly among gas exchange patterns at 15°C (P=0.26). The method of estimation had a large impact on the percentage of RWL, and of the three techniques investigated (traditional, regression and hyperoxic switch), the traditional method generally performed best. In many respects, A. fusca has typical gas exchange for what might be expected from other insects studied to date (e.g. , , RWL and cuticular water loss). However, we found for A. fusca that expressed as a function of metabolic rate was significantly higher than the expected consensus relationship for insects, suggesting it is under considerable pressure to save water. Despite this, we found no consistent evidence supporting the conclusion that transitions in pattern type yield reductions in RWL in this mesic cockroach.

  15. Coupled eco-hydrology and biogeochemistry algorithms enable the simulation of water table depth effects on boreal peatland net CO2 exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezbahuddin, Mohammad; Grant, Robert F.; Flanagan, Lawrence B.

    2017-12-01

    Water table depth (WTD) effects on net ecosystem CO2 exchange of boreal peatlands are largely mediated by hydrological effects on peat biogeochemistry and the ecophysiology of peatland vegetation. The lack of representation of these effects in carbon models currently limits our predictive capacity for changes in boreal peatland carbon deposits under potential future drier and warmer climates. We examined whether a process-level coupling of a prognostic WTD with (1) oxygen transport, which controls energy yields from microbial and root oxidation-reduction reactions, and (2) vascular and nonvascular plant water relations could explain mechanisms that control variations in net CO2 exchange of a boreal fen under contrasting WTD conditions, i.e., shallow vs. deep WTD. Such coupling of eco-hydrology and biogeochemistry algorithms in a process-based ecosystem model, ecosys, was tested against net ecosystem CO2 exchange measurements in a western Canadian boreal fen peatland over a period of drier-weather-driven gradual WTD drawdown. A May-October WTD drawdown of ˜ 0.25 m from 2004 to 2009 hastened oxygen transport to microbial and root surfaces, enabling greater microbial and root energy yields and peat and litter decomposition, which raised modeled ecosystem respiration (Re) by 0.26 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 per 0.1 m of WTD drawdown. It also augmented nutrient mineralization, and hence root nutrient availability and uptake, which resulted in improved leaf nutrient (nitrogen) status that facilitated carboxylation and raised modeled vascular gross primary productivity (GPP) and plant growth. The increase in modeled vascular GPP exceeded declines in modeled nonvascular (moss) GPP due to greater shading from increased vascular plant growth and moss drying from near-surface peat desiccation, thereby causing a net increase in modeled growing season GPP by 0.39 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 per 0.1 m of WTD drawdown. Similar increases in GPP and Re caused no significant WTD effects on modeled

  16. Coupled eco-hydrology and biogeochemistry algorithms enable the simulation of water table depth effects on boreal peatland net CO2 exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mezbahuddin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Water table depth (WTD effects on net ecosystem CO2 exchange of boreal peatlands are largely mediated by hydrological effects on peat biogeochemistry and the ecophysiology of peatland vegetation. The lack of representation of these effects in carbon models currently limits our predictive capacity for changes in boreal peatland carbon deposits under potential future drier and warmer climates. We examined whether a process-level coupling of a prognostic WTD with (1 oxygen transport, which controls energy yields from microbial and root oxidation–reduction reactions, and (2 vascular and nonvascular plant water relations could explain mechanisms that control variations in net CO2 exchange of a boreal fen under contrasting WTD conditions, i.e., shallow vs. deep WTD. Such coupling of eco-hydrology and biogeochemistry algorithms in a process-based ecosystem model, ecosys, was tested against net ecosystem CO2 exchange measurements in a western Canadian boreal fen peatland over a period of drier-weather-driven gradual WTD drawdown. A May–October WTD drawdown of  ∼  0.25 m from 2004 to 2009 hastened oxygen transport to microbial and root surfaces, enabling greater microbial and root energy yields and peat and litter decomposition, which raised modeled ecosystem respiration (Re by 0.26 µmol CO2 m−2 s−1 per 0.1 m of WTD drawdown. It also augmented nutrient mineralization, and hence root nutrient availability and uptake, which resulted in improved leaf nutrient (nitrogen status that facilitated carboxylation and raised modeled vascular gross primary productivity (GPP and plant growth. The increase in modeled vascular GPP exceeded declines in modeled nonvascular (moss GPP due to greater shading from increased vascular plant growth and moss drying from near-surface peat desiccation, thereby causing a net increase in modeled growing season GPP by 0.39 µmol CO2 m−2 s−1 per 0.1 m of WTD drawdown. Similar increases in

  17. Modeling exchange rate volatility in CEEC countries: Impact of global financial and European sovereign debt crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miletić Siniša

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to envisage the impact of global financial (GFC and European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC on foreign exchange markets of emerg- ing countries in Central and Eastern Europe CEEC countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, poland and Serbia. The daily returns of exchange rates on Czech Republic koruna (CZK, Hungarian forint (HuF, Romanian lea (RoL, polish zloty (pLZ and Serbian dinar (RSD, all against the Euro are analyzed during the period from 3rd January 2000 to15th April 2013, in respect. To examine the impact of global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, dummy variables were adopted. overall results imply that global financial crisis has no impact on exchange rate returns in selected CEEC countries, while European sovereign debt crisis inf luencing in depreciation of polish zloty by 8% and Roma- nian lea by 6%. obtained results by our calculation, imply that global financial crisis increased enhanced volatility on exchange rate returns of Czech koruna, Romanian lea and polish zloty. Moreover, results of empirical analysis imply that this impact has the strongest inf luence in volatility on exchange rate returns of polish zloty.

  18. FDI Inflows, Price and Exchange Rate Volatility: New Empirical Evidence from Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Dal Bianco

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI inflows in a panel of 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, observed between 1990 and 2012. Both price and exchange rate volatility series are estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH. Our results obtained, employing the Fixed Effects estimator, confirm the theory of hysteresis and option value, in so far as a statistically significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI is found. Price volatility, instead, turns out to be positive but insignificant. Moreover, we show that human capital and trade openness are key for attracting foreign capital. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests the importance of stabilization policies as well as the policy of government credibility in promoting trade openness and human capital formation.

  19. EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, IMPORT PRICES AND INFLATION UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arintoko Arintoko

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This research estimates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT into import prices by applying an extension of the basic model of ERPT on Indonesia. It estimates models of cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM, with and without structural breaks. It uses the techniques of Zivot-Andrews and of Gregory-Hansen to test for structural breaks and cointegration with the structural breaks, respectively. The results show that with the control variables, inflation affects import prices and lower the pass-through for short term, in a condition of free floating exchange rate. In the short term, with the inclusion of structural breaks, significant inflation affects import prices and lowers the ERPT coefficient.  Keywords:    Exchange rate pass-through, inflation, structural breaks, cointegration, error-correction mechanismJEL classification numbers: C22, C32, E31, F41

  20. Correlation analysis of the Korean stock market: Revisited to consider the influence of foreign exchange rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Sang Kyun; Kim, Min Jae; Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong

    2018-02-01

    We investigated the effect of foreign exchange rate in a correlation analysis of the Korean stock market using both random matrix theory and minimum spanning tree. We collected data sets which were divided into two types of stock price, the original stock price in Korean Won and the price converted into US dollars at contemporary foreign exchange rates. Comparing the random matrix theory based on the two different prices, a few particular sectors exhibited substantial differences while other sectors changed little. The particular sectors were closely related to economic circumstances and the influence of foreign financial markets during that period. The method introduced in this paper offers a way to pinpoint the effect of exchange rate on an emerging stock market.

  1. Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

    2016-01-01

    1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

  2. Time-series analysis of multiple foreign exchange rates using time-dependent pattern entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizaki, Ryuji; Inoue, Masayoshi

    2018-01-01

    Time-dependent pattern entropy is a method that reduces variations to binary symbolic dynamics and considers the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window. We use this method to analyze the instability of daily variations in multiple foreign exchange rates. The time-dependent pattern entropy of 7 foreign exchange rates (AUD/USD, CAD/USD, CHF/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, and NZD/USD) was found to be high in the long period after the Lehman shock, and be low in the long period after Mar 2012. We compared the correlation matrix between exchange rates in periods of high and low of the time-dependent pattern entropy.

  3. EU enlargement and new member countries' involvement in the exchange rates system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlatka Bilas

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available For each country, joining the union is a unique process, considering advantages and disadvantages which a country can thus obtain. In order to fulfill conditions for the EU accession, transition countries must achieve different convergence criteria. Expansion of the EU brings along many challenges including coordination of policies and conducting a common monetary policy. After joining the EU new members are expected to have a minimum of two years of participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2 before accepting euro. ERM2 can be a flexible and efficient framework for the determination of a appropriate level of irrevocable exchange rate fixing according to euro, as well as for achieving macroeconomic stability. Even though, considering demands for complete abolition of capital controls and high capital mobility, fixed exchange rate with fluctuation margins of ±15% is to become sensitive to the capital movements and speculative attacks.

  4. Does implied volatility of currency futures option imply volatility of exchange rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Alan T.

    2007-02-01

    By investigating currency futures options, this paper provides an alternative economic implication for the result reported by Stein [Overreactions in the options market, Journal of Finance 44 (1989) 1011-1023] that long-maturity options tend to overreact to changes in the implied volatility of short-maturity options. When a GARCH process is assumed for exchange rates, a continuous-time relationship is developed. We provide evidence that implied volatilities may not be the simple average of future expected volatilities. By comparing the term-structure relationship of implied volatilities with the process of the underlying exchange rates, we find that long-maturity options are more consistent with the exchange rates process. In sum, short-maturity options overreact to the dynamics of underlying assets rather than long-maturity options overreacting to short-maturity options.

  5. The dynamics of exchange rate time series and the chaos game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristescu, C. P.; Stan, C.; Scarlat, E. I.

    2009-12-01

    This work presents a novel method of reconstructing some relevant characteristics of exchange rate time series by the superposition of two components: a mostly deterministic one, the chaos game as expressed by the Yuan/USD exchange rate and a purely stochastic one, Gaussian white noise. We analyzed 20 economic systems with the average Index of Economic Freedom above 50. The considered characteristics (the Lempel-Ziv complexity index, the slimness of the distribution and the Iterated Function Systems clumpiness test) are well reproduced by the reconstruction process. Additional confirmation is obtained by an analysis of the exchange rate of the Romanian national currency as an example of an application of the method to a transition economy, and by an analysis of the time series of the Euro-zone as an example of an application to a multinational system using a shorter time series.

  6. Investigation the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Export of Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jamalipour

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Agricultural commodity export is a main attribute of developing countries and it is the basic force of development, however, developing countries have faced domestic and international instability in their markets and monetary and fiscal policies and these instabilities create a difficult condition for most of producers and exporters. Volatility in exchange market is one of the most important factor and vital concentrate for international trade especially agricultural commodity export. Because of this concern many studies have been conducted in this filed; (Aristotelous, 2001; Chen, 2009 and Sabuhoi and Piri, 2009 .Many of these studies has stated that exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on aggregated agricultural export; however, none of them has been focused on the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on exported value of important commodities in long run and short run. In recent years, exchange rate fluctuation has been raised about 6 percent since 2007 to 2010 and it seemed that this phenomenon has a negative impact on agricultural commodity export in Iran. To test this hypothesis exported value of three important commodity (date, orange and grape and exchange rate volatility since 1970 to 2013 have been used. Material and Methods: In order to examine the relation between real exchange rate volatility and export values of date, orange and grapes, first GARCH method has been used to draw out exchange rate volatility; then, Panel unite root test has been used to check the level of integration. Since real exchange rate is not heterogeneous for different cross sections Levi-Lin and Chow unit root test has been used for this variable and IPS test has been applied to export value. Pederoni co-integration test has been used to check the integration between these variables. Finally, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square methods have been used to estimate long run and short run

  7. Multinational telecommunications operators : impact of market factors and foreign currency exchange rate variations in their stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Maria da Conceição T. F. Monteiro H.

    2012-01-01

    Mestrado em Finanças Firms are exposed to foreign exchange risk when the results of their projects depend on future exchange rates and those exchange rates can not be fully anticipated. Through the last 50 years, exchange risk management has received increasing attention in both corporate practice and literature. Firms are also exposed to other market factors, domestic and internationally, with a major impact on their stock returns. During the past decade the telecommunications sector has ...

  8. Self-other rating agreement and leader-member exchange (LMX): a quasi-replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbuto, John E; Wilmot, Michael P; Singh, Matthew; Story, Joana S P

    2012-04-01

    Data from a sample of 83 elected community leaders and 391 direct-report staff (resulting in 333 useable leader-member dyads) were reanalyzed to test relations between self-other rating agreement of servant leadership and member-reported leader-member exchange (LMX). Polynomial regression analysis indicated that the self-other rating agreement model was not statistically significant. Instead, all of the variance in member-reported LMX was accounted for by the others' ratings component alone.

  9. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management: A Tilt towards Real Hedging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  10. Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurtović Safet

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the effect of the real effective exchange rate depreciation of the lek on the trade balance of Albania using quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. Bounds testing cointegration approach, vector error correction model (VECM, and impulse response were used for the empirical analysis. The results of the study show a long-term cointegration between the real effective exchange rate (REER and the trade balance (TB. Specifically, the REER depreciation positively affects the trade balance of Albania in both the long and short run, indicating the weak presence of the J-curve effect. Important recommendations were derived from the results.

  11. The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Four Transition Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Morales, Lucia

    2007-01-01

    This article examines the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in four Easter European markets, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, using stock price and exchange rate data from these countries, as well as stock prices from the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. The data set consists of daily data over a 7 year period from 1999 to 2006. Both the long-run and the short-run association between these variables are analyzed. We employed the Johansen c...

  12. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: An Empirical Study into the Strategies of Industrial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    This cross-case study of eight blue-chip industrial companies extends previous studies of why exchange rate exposure management is done the way it is. While hedging should not be pursued unless it creates value, the operational objectives differ among companies. Avoiding financial distress...... is considered one of the most important ways of adding value by hedging. However, reducing stakeholders perceived risk and improving the ability to pursue investment plans and make value adding investments do also get some attention. While the overall objective is to add value, the dominating object...... in taking a partial and static financial approach when making theoretical recommendations for managing exchange rate exposures in industrial companies....

  13. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari; Nor Ermawati Hussain; Hafizah Abdul Rahim

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are inf...

  14. The contribution of the ECU to exchange-rate stability. A comment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. SARCINELLI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is a brief note criticising some essential elements of Jager and De Jong’s The private ECU’s potential impact on Global and European exchange-rate stability (1988. The author provides three points of criticism which undermine that article’s analysis. Firstly, the ECU ought to be considered in all its functions of an international reserve currency and not only as an investment currency. Secondly, the restrictiveness of the assumptions underlying the portfolio approach make the authors’ outcome useless in practice. Thirdly, the outcome of their calculations favours the hypothesis that the ECU creates exchange-rate stability.

  15. Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jingping

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

  16. Exchange rate regimes, saving glut and the Feldstein Horioka puzzle: The East Asian experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaya-Bahçe, Seçil; Özmen, Erdal

    2008-04-01

    This paper investigates whether the recent experience of the emerging East Asian countries with current account surpluses is consistent with the “saving glut” hypothesis and the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle. The evidence suggests that the saving retention coefficients declined substantially in most of the countries after an endogenous break date coinciding with a major exchange rate regime change with the 1997-1998 crisis. Exchange rate flexibility appears to be enhancing financial integration. The results are consistent with an “investment slump” explanation rather than the “saving glut” postulation.

  17. Explaining the Border Effect: The Role of Exchange Rate Variability, Shipping Costs, and Geography

    OpenAIRE

    David C. Parsley; Shang-Jin Wei

    2000-01-01

    This paper exploits a three-dimensional panel data set of prices on 27 traded goods, over 88 quarters, across 96 cities in the U.S. and Japan. We show that a simple average of good-level real exchange rates tracks the nominal exchange rate well, suggesting strong evidence of sticky prices. Focusing on dispersion in prices between city-pairs, we find that crossing the U.S.-Japan Border' is equivalent to adding as much as 43,000 trillion miles to the cross-country volatility of relative prices....

  18. The Exchange rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Kollmann, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper studies dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G-7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era. The model predicts that a positive domestic money supply shock lowers the domestic nominal interest rate, that it raises output and that it lead...

  19. The Influences of the Exchange Rate on the Performance of Romanian Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Dobrotă

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The unprecedented development of international trade relations has generated the possibility of obtaining a significant part of the GDP of the participating countries in foreign trade. As a result, the issue of competitiveness in international economy has become a major concern to authorities. In the category of factors which are influencing the competitiveness level is registered the volatility of the exchange rate. In this paper there were analyzed the aspects regarding the evolution of Romania's foreign trade and exchange rate, in the context of monetary policy measures. The conclusion is that the development plan of the national economy is determined by the action of a complex of economic, social and political factors, but measures taken by the monetary authorities in relation to the regime of exchange may generate visible effects at this level and thus to the volume of foreign trade relations.

  20. South Africa and United States stock prices and the Rand/Dollar exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Ocran

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to examine the dynamic causal relations between the two major financial assets, stock prices of the US and South Africa and the rand/US$ exchange rate. The study uses a mixed bag of time series approaches such as cointegration, Granger causality, impulse response functions and forecasting error variance decompositions.  The paper identifies a bi-directional causality from the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock price index to the rand/US$ exchange rate in the Granger sense. It was also found that the Standard & Poor’s stock price index accounts for a significant portion of the variations in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s All Share index. Thus, while causality in the Granger sense could not be established for the relationship between the price indices of the two stock exchanges it can argued that there is some relationship between them. The results of the study have implications for both business and Government.

  1. Process coupling and control over the response of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to climate variability and insect disturbance in subalpine forests of the Western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monson, R. K.; Moore, D. J.; Trahan, N. A.; Scott-Denton, L.; Burns, S. P.; Hu, J.; Bowling, D. R.

    2011-12-01

    Following ten years of studies in subalpine forest ecosystems of the Western US, we have concluded that the tight coupling between gross primary productivity (GPP) and the autotrophic component of soil respiration (Ra) drives responses of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) to climate variability and insect disturbance. This insight has been gained through long-term eddy flux observations, manipulative plot experiments, analyses of dynamics in the stable isotope compositions of CO2 and H2O, and chamber gas-exchange measurements. Using past observations from these studies, we deployed model-data assimilation techniques and forecast weather/climate modeling to estimate how the coupling between GPP and Ra is likely to affect future (Year 2100) dynamics in NEE. The amount of winter snow and its melting dynamics in the spring represents the dominant control over interannual variation in GPP. Using the SIPNET ecosystem process model, combined with knowledge about the stable isotope content of different water sources, we estimated that approximately 75% of growing season GPP is coupled to the use of snowmelt water, whereas approximately 25% is coupled to summer rain. The tight coupling between GPP and winter snow pack drives a similar tight coupling between soil respiration (Rs) and winter snow pack. Manipulation of snow pack on forest plots has shown that Rs increases with increased snow pack, and this effect disappears when trees are girdled, which stops the transfer of GPP to roots and the soil rhizosphere. Higher-than-normal winter snowpacks cause the carbon isotope ratios of soil-respired CO2 to be depleted in 13C, reflecting a signal of lower photosynthetic water-use efficiency in the GPP that is transferred to the soil rhizosphere. Large-scale forest disturbance due to catastrophic tree mortality from mountain pine beetle attack causes an initial (2-3 year) reduction in Rs, which is attributable to the loss of GPP and its effect on Ra. This near-term reduction in Rs

  2. Monetary and exchange rate regimes changes: The cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores (former transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e. exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.

  3. Inflation, Exchange Rates and the Conceptual Framework: The FASB’s Debates from 1973 to 1984

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Detzen, D.

    2014-01-01

    In this article, I explain how two economic forces of the 1970s and 1980s, volatile exchange rates and inflation, provided a constant and compelling backdrop to the FASB’s debates on its conceptual framework. While it has been acknowledged that rising prices contributed to a move towards greater

  4. Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at evaluating volatility forecasts for the US Dollar/Mauritian Rupee exchange rate obtained via a GARCH (1,1) model under two distributional assumptions: the Generalized Error Distribution (GED) and the. Student's-t distribution. We make use of daily data to evaluate the parameters of each model and ...

  5. Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem H. Buiter

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East Europeanaccession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. Theexchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange ratemechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two yeas before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERMII membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERMII membership for the accession countries, would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory.

  6. Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Pollin; James Heintz

    2007-01-01

    This IPC Country Study by Robert Pollin and James Heintz examines three policy areas related to monetary policies in Kenya: inflation dynamics and the relationship between inflation and long-run growth; monetary policy targets and instruments; and exchange rate dynamics and the country?s external balance. It concludes with five main policy recommendations

  7. Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Babetskii, Ian; Boone, J.; Maurel, M.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 2 (2004), s. 212-229 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : EU enlargement * exchange rate regimes * optimal currency area criteria Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.836, year: 2004

  8. The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Diks, C.

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates the long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among six currencies, namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The prime motivation for choosing these exchange rates comes from the fact that they are the most liquid and widely traded, covering

  9. Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at evaluating volatility forecasts for the US Dollar/Mauritian. Rupee exchange rate obtained via a GARCH (1,1) model under two distri- butional assumptions: the Generalized Error Distribution (GED) and the. Student's-t distribution. We make use of daily data to evaluate the parame- ters of each model and ...

  10. Training a multilayer neural network for the Euro-dollar (EUR/ USD) exchange rate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jaime Alberto Villamil Torres; Jesús Alberto Delgado Rivera

    2010-01-01

    ... (as first approximation) a random walk. This paper reports the results of using ANNs for Euro/USD exchange rate trading and the usefulness of the algorithm for chemotaxis leading to training networks thereby maximising an objective function re predicting a trader’s profits. JEL: F310, C450.

  11. The Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on U.S. Shareholder Wealth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller, Aline; Verschoor, W.F.C.

    2009-01-01

    We examine the relationship between financial crisis exchange rate variability and equity return volatility for US multinationals. Empirical analysis of the major financial crises of the last decades reveals that stock return variability increases significantly in the aftermath of a crisis, even

  12. Exchange Rate Volatility, Global Financial Crisis and the Day-of-the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Although the results failed to support the presence the day-of-the week effect in the FOREX rate returns, there was evidence of this effect on the volatility of the returns. Additionally, available evidence indicated persistence in volatility of the Nigerian foreign exchange market returns. The results further showed that the ...

  13. What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson; Frömmel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas

    This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against co...... model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics.......This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against...... correctly and misspecified non-linear alternatives is analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. The chosen parametrization is obtained by real-life exchange rates. The test against ESTAR has low power against all alternatives whereas the proposed unit root test against a Markov Switching autoregressive...

  14. Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data

  15. Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data

  16. Government Spending Shocks, the Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate in OECD Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyoung Kim

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate for 20 OECD countries using panel VAR model, in order to provide empirical stylized facts. The countries were grouped based on openness and size, and the influence of openness and size on the effects of government spending shocks. The main findings are as follows. First, in the analysis of all 20 countries, in response to government spending shocks, the worsening of the current account is significant, but real exchange rate appreciation is not significant. Second, real exchange rate appreciation is more significant and worsening of the current account is more temporary in the group of countries with higher openness than in those with low openness. Third, the worsening of the current account is more significant in the group of large countries than in the group of small countries. Although real exchange rate depreciation under fiscal expansion is not consistent with traditional theories, the results are broadly consistent with the existing theories that incorporate openness and the size of the country.

  17. Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post Keynesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

  18. A Technical Basis for Employing Facility Ventilation Air Exchange Rates in the Decision to Downpost

    CERN Document Server

    Mantooth, D S

    2001-01-01

    Utilizing the ventilation exchange rate as a basis for the decision to downpost a location within a facility from an airborne radiation area (ARA) based on initial air count(DAC). Not used in the case of a confirmed or suspected contamination release.

  19. 73 Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria (Pp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    2011-07-21

    Jul 21, 2011 ... ISSN 2070--0083 (Online). Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria. (Pp. 73-88). Oladipupo, A. O. - Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management. Sciences, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria. E-mail: sinaoladipupo@yahoo.com. Phone: +2348055160668; +2347029654964. &.

  20. Structural Breaks and Long Memory Property in Korean Won Exchange Rates: Adaptive FIGARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Wook Han

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the issue of structural breaks and long memory property in the conditional variance process of the Korean exchange rates. To analyze the above in detail, this paper examines the dynamics of the structural breaks and the long memory in the conditional variance process of the Korean exchange returns by using the daily KRW-USD and KRW-JPY exchange rates for the period from 2000 through 2007. In particular, this paper employs the Adaptive FIGARCH model of Baillie and Morana (2009 which account for the structural breaks and the long memory property together. This paper also finds that the new Adaptive FIGARCH model outperforms the usual FIGARCH model of Baillie et al. (1996 when the structural breaks are present and that the long memory property in the conditional variance process of the Korean exchange returns is significantly reduced after the structural breaks are accounted for. Thus, these results suggest that the upward biased long memory property observed in the conditional variance process of the Korean exchange returns could partially have been imparted as a result of neglecting the structural breaks.

  1. The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Russ, Katheryn

    2004-01-01

    This paper argues that when the exchange rate and projected sales in the host country are jointly determined by underlying macroeconomic variables, standard regressions of FDI flows on both exchange rate levels and volatility are subject to bias. The results hinge on the interaction of macroeconomic uncertainty, a sunk cost, and heterogeneous productivity across firms. They indicate that a multinational firm’s response to increases in exchange rate volatility will differ depending on whethe...

  2. EXCHANGE RATE VS. INTEREST RATE: HOW MUCH DOES UIP WORK FOR ROMANIA? (STUDY CASE ON THE EUR/RON CURRENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haulica Dana

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper is part of a larger research that aims to analyze the deviation between the Real Exchange Rate and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Romania (EUR/RON currency and to come up with conclusions regarding this deviation and with solutions to minimize it, if the case. Because this is the most important discussion after having the empirical results: what do emergent markets like Romania need to do to keep up with the EU trend? Which are the concessions they have to make in order to maintain a sustainable growth? Do these concessions include breaking the present equilibrium for a future BETTER? Starting with the most well-known methods to calculate the Equilibrium Exchange Rate, this article`s purpose is to create an accurate overview on the UIP model in Romania (the interest rate differential, to verify, using the latest data if the economic environment has brought any changes on the results of this model in the latest years. Is the UIP model a trustworthy equation to establish the Equilibrium Exchange Rate? In order to verify if the UIP model was more reliable in returning a value for the Equilibrium Exchange rate in the latest years on the Romanian market, this paper presents an empirical study containing recent compiled data from the last 10 years, analyzing the 2005 – 2014 period. The NEW in this article is that the used data is very fresh, currently, most probably the only study that verifies the UIP model in Romania for this specific period of time. Why is it useful? Why is it important? Because it doesn`t only bring a confirmation of weather the UIP works for Romania or not but comes up with hints and conclusions regarding the current economic situation of Romania. We can see what has been changed in the local market in the last ten years in terms of monetary policy and what has this change brought with it – if the results are those expected or not and also, what would be the direction for the next years – to most suitable

  3. Exchange rate regimes, inflation and growth in developing countries : an assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bleaney, Michael; Francisco, Manuela

    2007-01-01

    Official and four alternative regime classification schemes based on observed exchange rate behaviour are used to examine the relationship with inflation and growth in 91 developing countries over the period 1984-2001. Apart from one scheme that produces markedly unfavourable results for floating (for reasons that are discussed in the paper), the consistent findings are that (a) floats have similar growth rates to soft pegs and only slightly higher inflation; and (b) hard pegs have lower infl...

  4. Impacts of price and exchange rate policies on pesticide use in the Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    Tjornhom, Jessica D; Norton, George W.; Gapud, Victor

    1998-01-01

    Pesticide prices can influence producer decisions to apply pesticides as opposed to nonchemical means of pest control. Those prices are in tum influenced by price and exchange rate policies. The effective rate of protection for nine pesticides commonly applied to vegetables in the Philippines was calculated to determine whether government policies are creating incentives or disincentives to adopt more integrated pest management methods. Calculations found that direct price policies, primarily...

  5. The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fakhri Hasanov

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Undoubtedly, oil prices play a crucial role in the macroeconomic performances of oil-exporting developing countries. In this regard, the exchange rate is one of the key macroeconomic indicators worthy of investigation. Existing literature shows that world oil prices play an important role in the appreciation of the exchange rates of oil-exporting developing countries. However, only a few studies have examined this issue by considering all three oil-exporting countries of the Commonwealth Independent States, namely Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia, together. In order to fill this gap and given the increasing importance of these economies in the world’s energy markets, this paper examines the role of oil prices in the movement of real effective exchange rates of the above-mentioned CIS countries. We applied the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing method with a small sample bias correction to the data of these countries over the 2004Q1–2013Q4 period. The estimation results indicate that oil prices are certainly a main driver behind real effective exchange rate appreciation in the selected economies. Moreover, estimations show that productivity, to some extent, can also lead to the appreciation. The policy implication of this research is that an appreciation of the real exchange rate is harmful for the exports of non-oil goods and services in these countries. Since oil prices lead to the appreciation mainly through higher domestic prices, which is a result of tremendous public spending, decision-makers should reconsider the prevailing fiscal policy to make it much more counter-cyclical.

  6. Influence Analysis of Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Debt To Equity Ratio (DER), and current ratio (CR), Against Corporate Profit Growth In Automotive In Indonesia Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd. Heikal; Muammar Khaddafi; Ainatul Ummah

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this research to analyze the effect of Return On Asset, Return On Equity, Net Profit Margin, Debt To Equity Ratio and Current Ratio toward growth income either simultaneously or partially on automotive companies that were listed in Indonesia stock exchange. Independent variables used in this research were Return On Asset, Return On Equity, Net Profit Margin, Debt To Equity Ratio and Current Ratio and dependent variable in this research was growth incom. The data used in this re...

  7. A macro-physics model of depreciation rate in economic exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmont Lobo, Rui F.; de Sousa, Miguel Rocha

    2014-02-01

    This article aims at a new approach for a known fundamental result: barter or trade increases economic value. It successfully bridges the gap between the theory of value and the exchange process attached to the transition from endowments to the equilibrium in the core and contract curve. First, we summarise the theory of value; in Section 2, we present the Edgeworth (1881) box and an axiomatic approach and in Section 3, we apply our pure exchange model. Finally (in Section 4), using our open econo-physics pure barter (EPB) model, we derive an improvement in value, which means that pure barter leads to a decline in depreciation rate.

  8. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate...... testable hypotheses regarding how unannounced intervention purchases and intervention sales influence the market asymmetrically. To test these hypotheses we estimate weighted least squares (WLS) time-series models of the intraday bid-ask spread. Our main result is that intervention purchases and sales both...

  9. EFFECTS OF THE APPLICATION OF TARGETING THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN MACEDONIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRUME NIKOLOSKI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary independence of Macedonia. In a small and open economy, the exchange rate policy has particular importance in the control of the inflation rate and beyond: in the real economic trends. The strategy of targeting the denar exchange rate was accepted and applied with the expectation that it would act in that direction, hence the monetary policy was focused on maintaining fixed exchange rate against the euro. The determination of the country to join the European Union and to become a member of other international financial organizations is yet another reason for choosing this strategy.

  10. The nuclear guanine nucleotide exchange factors Ect2 and Net1 regulate RhoB-mediated cell death after DNA damage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa C Srougi

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Commonly used antitumor treatments, including radiation and chemotherapy, function by damaging the DNA of rapidly proliferating cells. However, resistance to these agents is a predominant clinical problem. A member of the Rho family of small GTPases, RhoB has been shown to be integral in mediating cell death after ionizing radiation (IR or other DNA damaging agents in Ras-transformed cell lines. In addition, RhoB protein expression increases after genotoxic stress, and loss of RhoB expression causes radio- and chemotherapeutic resistance. However, the signaling pathways that govern RhoB-induced cell death after DNA damage remain enigmatic. Here, we show that RhoB activity increases in human breast and cervical cancer cell lines after treatment with DNA damaging agents. Furthermore, RhoB activity is necessary for DNA damage-induced cell death, as the stable loss of RhoB protein expression using shRNA partially protects cells and prevents the phosphorylation of c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs and the induction of the pro-apoptotic protein Bim after IR. The increase in RhoB activity after genotoxic stress is associated with increased activity of the nuclear guanine nucleotide exchange factors (GEFs, Ect2 and Net1, but not the cytoplasmic GEFs p115 RhoGEF or Vav2. Importantly, loss of Ect2 and Net1 via siRNA-mediated protein knock-down inhibited IR-induced increases in RhoB activity, reduced apoptotic signaling events, and protected cells from IR-induced cell death. Collectively, these data suggest a mechanism involving the nuclear GEFs Ect2 and Net1 for activating RhoB after genotoxic stress, thereby facilitating cell death after treatment with DNA damaging agents.

  11. Glycan OH Exchange Rate Determination in Aqueous Solution: Seeking Evidence for Transient Hydrogen Bonds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battistel, Marcos D; Azurmendi, Hugo F; Freedberg, Darón I

    2017-02-02

    Hydrogen bonds (Hbonds) are important stabilizing forces in biomolecules. However, for glycans in aqueous solution, direct NMR detection of Hbonds is elusive because of their transient nature. Here, we present Isotope-based Natural-abundance TOtal correlation eXchange SpectroscopY (INTOXSY), a new (1)H-(13)C heteronuclear single quantum coherence-total correlation spectroscopy based method, to extract OH groups' exchange rate constants (kex) for molecules in natural (13)C abundance and show that OH Hbonds can be inferred from "slower" H/D kex. We evaluate kex measured with INTOXSY in light of those extracted with line-shape analysis. Subsequently, we use a set of common glycans to establish a kex reference basis set and to infer the existence of transient Hbonds involving OH donor groups. Then, we report kex values for a series of mono- and disaccharides, as well as for oligosaccharides sialyl Lewis X and β-cyclodextrin, and compare the results with those from the reference set to extract Hbond information. Finally, we utilize NMR experimental data in conjunction with molecular dynamics simulations to establish donor and acceptor Hbond pairs. Our exchange rate measurements indicate that OH/OD exchange rates, kHD, values transient Hbond OH groups and potential acceptor groups can be uncovered through MD simulations.

  12. An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm based evolutionary framework for currency exchange rate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Rajashree

    2017-11-01

    Forecasting purchasing power of one currency with respect to another currency is always an interesting topic in the field of financial time series prediction. Despite the existence of several traditional and computational models for currency exchange rate forecasting, there is always a need for developing simpler and more efficient model, which will produce better prediction capability. In this paper, an evolutionary framework is proposed by using an improved shuffled frog leaping (ISFL) algorithm with a computationally efficient functional link artificial neural network (CEFLANN) for prediction of currency exchange rate. The model is validated by observing the monthly prediction measures obtained for three currency exchange data sets such as USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY accumulated within same period of time. The model performance is also compared with two other evolutionary learning techniques such as Shuffled frog leaping algorithm and Particle Swarm optimization algorithm. Practical analysis of results suggest that, the proposed model developed using the ISFL algorithm with CEFLANN network is a promising predictor model for currency exchange rate prediction compared to other models included in the study.

  13. Net Reaction Rate and Neutrino Cooling Rate for the Urca Process in Departure from Chemical Equilibrium in the Crust of Fast-accreting Neutron Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Hua; Huang, Xi; Zheng, Xiao-Ping

    We discuss the effect of compression on Urca shells in the ocean and crust of accreting neutron stars, especially in superbursting sources. We find that Urca shells may be deviated from chemical equilibrium in neutron stars which accrete at several tenths of the local Eddington accretion rate. The deviation depends on the energy threshold of the parent and daughter nuclei, the transition strength, the temperature, and the local accretion rate. In a typical crust model of accreting neutron stars, the chemical departures range from a few tenths of kBT to tens of kBT for various Urca pairs. If the Urca shell can exist in crusts of accreting neutron stars, compression may enhance the net neutrino cooling rate by a factor of about 1-2 relative to the neutrino emissivity in chemical equilibrium. For some cases, such as Urca pairs with small energy thresholds and/or weak transition strength, the large chemical departure may result in net heating rather than cooling, although the released heat can be small. Strong Urca pairs in the deep crust are hard to be deviated even in neutron stars accreting at the local Eddington accretion rate.

  14. Effects of ozone on growth, yield and leaf gas exchange rates of four Bangladeshi cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akhtar, Nahid [United Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Yamaguchi, Masahiro; Inada, Hidetoshi; Hoshino, Daiki; Kondo, Taisuke [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Fukami, Motohiro [Faculty of Agriculture, Utsunomiya University, Utsunomiya, Tochigi 321-8505 (Japan); Funada, Ryo [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Izuta, Takeshi, E-mail: izuta@cc.tuat.ac.j [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan)

    2010-09-15

    To assess the effects of tropospheric O{sub 3} on rice cultivated in Bangladesh, four Bangladeshi cultivars (BR11, BR14, BR28 and BR29) of rice (Oryza sativa L.) were exposed daily to charcoal-filtered air or O{sub 3} at 60 and 100 nl l{sup -1} (10:00-17:00) from 1 July to 28 November 2008. The whole-plant dry mass and grain yield per plant of the four cultivars were significantly reduced by the exposure to O{sub 3}. The exposure to O{sub 3} significantly reduced net photosynthetic rate of the 12th and flag leaves of the four cultivars. The sensitivity to O{sub 3} of growth, yield and leaf gas exchange rates was not significantly different among the four cultivars. The present study suggests that the sensitivity to O{sub 3} of yield of the four Bangladeshi rice cultivars is greater than that of American rice cultivars and is similar to that of Japanese rice cultivars and that O{sub 3} may detrimentally affect rice production in Bangladesh. - Bangladeshi cultivars of rice are sensitive to O{sub 3} below 100 ppb.

  15. Net accumulation rates derived from ice core stable isotope records of Pío XI glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schwikowski

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Pío XI, the largest glacier of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, reached its neoglacial maximum extent in 1994 and is one of the few glaciers in that area which is not retreating. In view of the recent warming it is important to understand glacier responses to climate changes. Due to its remoteness and the harsh conditions in Patagonia, no systematic mass balance studies have been performed. In this study we derived net accumulation rates for the period 2000–2006 from a 50 m (33.2 4 m weq ice core collected in the accumulation area of Pío XI (2600 m a.s.l., 49°16'40"S, 73°21'14"W. Borehole temperatures indicate near temperate ice, but the average melt percent is only 16 ± 14%. Records of stable isotopes are well preserved and were used for identification of annual layers. Net accumulation rates range from 3.4–7.1 water equivalent (m weq with an average of 5.8 m weq, comparable to precipitation amounts at the Chilean coast, but not as high as expected for the Icefield. Ice core stable isotope data correlate well with upper air temperatures and may be used as temperature proxy.

  16. Utilizing a Water-Soluble Cryptophane with Fast Xenon Exchange Rates for Picomolar Sensitivity NMR Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yubin; Hill, P. Aru; Dmochowski, Ivan J.

    2012-01-01

    Hyperpolarized 129Xe chemical exchange saturation transfer (129Xe Hyper-CEST) NMR is a powerful technique for the ultrasensitive, indirect detection of Xe host molecules (e.g., cryptophane-A). Irradiation at the appropriate Xe-cryptophane resonant radio frequency results in relaxation of the bound hyperpolarized 129Xe and rapid accumulation of depolarized 129Xe in bulk solution. The cryptophane effectively ‘catalyzes’ this process by providing a unique molecular environment for spin depolarization to occur, while allowing xenon exchange with the bulk solution during the hyperpolarized lifetime (T1 ≈ 1 min). Following this scheme, a triacetic acid cryptophane-A derivative (TAAC) was indirectly detected at 1.4 picomolar concentration at 320 K in aqueous solution, which is the record for a single-unit xenon host. To investigate this sensitivity enhancement, the xenon binding kinetics of TAAC in water was studied by NMR exchange lifetime measurement. At 297 K, kon ≈ 1.5 × 106 M−1s−1 and koff = 45 s−1, which represent the fastest Xe association and dissociation rates measured for a high-affinity, water-soluble xenon host molecule near rt. NMR linewidth measurements provided similar exchange rates at rt, which we assign to solvent-Xe exchange in TAAC. At 320 K, koff was estimated to be 1.1 × 103 s−1. In Hyper-CEST NMR experiments, the rate of 129Xe depolarization achieved by 14 pM TAAC in the presence of RF pulses was calculated to be 0.17 µM·s−1. On a per cryptophane basis, this equates to 1.2 × 104 129Xe atoms s−1 (or 4.6 × 104 Xe atoms s−1, all Xe isotopes), which is more than an order of magnitude faster than koff, the directly measurable Xe-TAAC exchange rate. This compels us to consider multiple Xe exchange processes for cryptophane-mediated bulk 129Xe depolarization, which provide at least 107-fold sensitivity enhancements over directly detected hyperpolarized 129Xe NMR signals. PMID:23106513

  17. Self-other rating agreement and leader-member exchange (LMX).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbuto, John E; Wilmot, Michael P; Story, Joana S

    2011-12-01

    Data from a sample of 83 elected community leaders and 391 direct-report staffers (resulting in 306 useable leader-member dyads) were used to test relations between self-other rating agreement of leadership and member-reported leader-member exchange (LMX). Results of polynomial regression analysis indicated that the self-other rating agreement model was not significantly related to member-reported LMX. Instead, virtually all of the variance in member-reported LMX was accounted for by others' ratings.

  18. Gas exchange and heart rate in the harbour porpoise, Phocoena phocoena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reed, J.Z.; Chambers, C.; Hunter, C.J.

    2000-01-01

    The respiratory physiology, heart rates and metabolic rates of two captive juvenile male harbour porpoises (both 28 kg) were measured using a rapid-response respiratory gas analysis system in the laboratory. Breath-hold durations in the laboratory (12 +/- 0.3 s, mean +/- SEM) were shorter than...... a comparatively high minute rate of gas exchange. Oxygen consumption under these experimental conditions (247 +/- 13.8 ml O-2. min(-1)) was 1.9- fold higher than predicted by standard scaling relations. These data together with an estimate of the total oxygen stores predicted an aerobic dive limit of 5.4 min...

  19. The common-trend and transitory dynamics in real exchange rate fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael; Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lai, Kon S.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the behaviour of both Common Trend (CT) and transitory components of Real Exchange Rate (RER) fluctuations under the current float. The CT component is in most cases found to be sizeable, albeit its relative importance can vary considerably across major currencies and its...... estimate can be sensitive to whether or not long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is imposed on the data. Further analysis suggests that both CT and transitory innovations are linked much more to interest rate changes than to productivity changes. Accordingly, it is interest rate, not productivity...

  20. Effect of stroke rate on the distribution of net mechanical power in rowing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmijster, M.J.; Landman, E.H.; Smith, R.M.; van Soest, A.J.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the effect of manipulating stroke rate on the distribution of mechanical power in rowing. Two causes of inefficient mechanical energy expenditure were identified in rowing. The ratio between power not lost at the blades and generated mechanical power (P̄

  1. Towards a standardized processing of Net Ecosystem Exchange measured with eddy covariance technique: algorithms and uncertainty estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Papale

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Eddy covariance technique to measure CO2, water and energy fluxes between biosphere and atmosphere is widely spread and used in various regional networks. Currently more than 250 eddy covariance sites are active around the world measuring carbon exchange at high temporal resolution for different biomes and climatic conditions. In this paper a new standardized set of corrections is introduced and the uncertainties associated with these corrections are assessed for eight different forest sites in Europe with a total of 12 yearly datasets. The uncertainties introduced on the two components GPP (Gross Primary Production and TER (Terrestrial Ecosystem Respiration are also discussed and a quantitative analysis presented. Through a factorial analysis we find that generally, uncertainties by different corrections are additive without interactions and that the heuristic u*-correction introduces the largest uncertainty. The results show that a standardized data processing is needed for an effective comparison across biomes and for underpinning inter-annual variability. The methodology presented in this paper has also been integrated in the European database of the eddy covariance measurements.

  2. Modelling the Dependence Structure of MUR/USD and MUR/INR Exchange Rates using Copula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vandna Jowaheer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available American Dollar (USD and Indian Rupee (INR play an important role in Mauritian economy. It is important to model the pattern of dependence in their co-movement with respect to Mauritian Rupee (MUR, as this may indicate the export-import behavior in Mauritius. However, it is known that distributions of exchange rates are usually non-normal and the use of linear correlation as a dependence measure is inappropriate. Moreover it is quite difficult to obtain the joint distribution of such random variables in order to specify the complete covariance matrix to measure their dependence structure. In this paper, we first identify the marginal distributions of the exchange rates of MUR against USD and INR and then select the best fitting copula model for the bivariate series. It is concluded that both the series are asymmetric and fat-tailed following hyperbolic distribution. Their dependence structure is appropriately modeled by t copula.

  3. Training a multilayer neural network for the Euro-dollar (EUR/ USD exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Alberto Villamil Torres

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical tool or model for predicting how an economic variable like the exchange rate (relative price between two currencies will respond is a very important need for investors and policy-makers. Most current techniques are based on statistics, particularly linear time series theory. Artificial neural networks (ANNs are mathematical models which try to emulate biological neural networks’ parallelism and nonlinearity; these models have been successfully applied in Economics and Engineering since the 1980s. ANNs appear to be an alternative for modelling the behaviour of financial variables which resemble (as first approximation a random walk. This paper reports the results of using ANNs for Euro/USD exchange rate trading and the usefulness of the algorithm for chemotaxis leading to training networks thereby maximising an objective function re predicting a trader’s profits. JEL: F310, C450.

  4. Dissimilar Effects of World News Announcements on Euro/Dollar/Yen Exchange Rates: An Econophysics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Matesanz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of the influence of macro-economic announcements over the exchange rates volatility, but from a different perspective as it is the usual in the econometric literature. By quantifying the impact of world-wide macroeconomic information published in the economic calendar in several recent years we were able to construct long events’ time series with the objective to test whether they influence exchange rate volatilities in several currencies. In order to do that, Granger causality test was employed by using a computational approach. Our results show that announcements from U.S.A are, by far, the most important influence over the three spot forex quotes, Euro/Dollar, Euro/Yen and Dollar/Yen. The method proposed here opens the door to address several open questions until now.

  5. Implications Of Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development And Real Exchange Rate For Economic Growth In Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victalice Ngimanang Achamoh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI, financial development and real exchange rate (RER on economic growth in Cameroon using Cameroon’s annual time series data spanning the period 1977 - 2010. To address these objectives, residual based Engle-Granger test, the OLS based Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL bound testing and maximum likelihood based Johansen cointegration techniques are employed. Results of Unit roots tests show that all the series possessed unit roots at level or first difference form. The ARDL model and VECM results reveal that the RER has a significant negative effect on economic growth, while FDI and Financial Development relate positively to economic growth. These findings have implications for stimulating economic growth by increasing efficiency of the financial sector in allocating credit to the private sector and preventing real exchange rate appreciation in the shortrun.

  6. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  7. Cooperation between bound waters and hydroxyls in controlling isotope-exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panasci, Adele F.; McAlpin, J. Gregory; Ohlin, C. André; Christensen, Shauna; Fettinger, James C.; Britt, R. David; Rustad, James R.; Casey, William H.

    2012-02-01

    Mineral oxides differ from aqueous ions in that the bound water molecules are usually attached to different metal centers, or vicinal, and thus separated from one another. In contrast, for most monomeric ions used to establish kinetic reactivity trends, such as octahedral aquo ions (e.g., Al(H 2O) 63+), the bound waters are closely packed, or geminal. Because of this structural difference, the existing literature about ligand substitution in monomer ions may be a poor guide to the reactions of geochemical interest. To understand how coordination of the reactive functional groups might affect the rates of simple water-exchange reactions, we synthesized two structurally similar Rh(III) complexes, [Rh(phen) 2(H 2O) 2] 3+ [ 1] and [Rh(phen) 2(H 2O)Cl] 2+ [ 2] where (phen) = 1,10-phenanthroline. Complex [ 1] has two adjacent, geminal, bound waters in the inner-coordination sphere and [ 2] has a single bound water adjacent to a bound chloride ion. We employed Rh(III) as a trivalent metal rather than a more geochemically relevant metal like Fe(III) or Al(III) to slow the rate of reaction, which makes possible measurement of the rates of isotopic substitution by simple mass spectrometry. We prepared isotopically pure versions of the molecules, dissolved them into isotopically dissimilar water, and measured the rates of exchange from the extents of 18O and 16O exchange at the bound waters. The pH dependency of rates differ enormously between the two complexes. Pseudo-first-order rate coefficients at 298 K for water exchanges from the fully protonated molecules are close: k0298 = 5 × 10 -8(±0.5 × 10 -8) s -1 for [ 1] and k0298 = 2.5 × 10 -9(±1 × 10 -9) for [ 2]. Enthalpy and entropy activation parameters (Δ H‡ and Δ S‡) were measured to be 119(±3) kJ mol -1, and 14(±1) J mol -1 K -1, respectively for [ 1]. The corresponding parameters for the mono-aquo complex, [ 2], are 132(±3) kJ mol -1 and 41.5(±2) J mol -1 K -1. Rates increase by many orders of magnitude

  8. Integrated Exchange Rate Model (IERM) & Chinese Yuan & US Dollar : The case of working capital management in logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jan Jansen

    2011-01-01

    With the transportation of goods over long distances not just goods but also an inventory is being shipped. The value of this inventory could change due to the fluctuations in the exchange rates of the involved (international) currencies. This article introduces an integrated exchange rate model to

  9. Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2017-01-01

    -state behavior of an an imperfect knowledge based model for exchange rate determination can be formulated as testable hypotheses on common stochastic trends and cointegration. This model obtained a remarkable support for almost every testable hypothesis and was able to adequately account for the long persistent...... swings in the real exchange rate....

  10. Biogenic carbon fluxes from global agricultural production and consumption: Gridded, annual estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, J.; West, T. O.; le Page, Y.; Thomson, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Quantification of biogenic carbon fluxes from agricultural lands is needed to generate globally consistent bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring and model input. We quantify agricultural carbon fluxes associated with annual (starting in 1961) crop net primary productivity (NPP), harvested biomass, and human and livestock consumption and emissions, with estimates of uncertainty, by applying region- and species-specific carbon parameters to annual crop, livestock, food and trade inventory data, and generate downscaled, gridded (0.05 degree resolution) representations of these fluxes. In 2011, global crop NPP was 5.25 ± 0.46 Pg carbon (excluding root exudates), of which 2.05 ± 0.051 Pg carbon was harvested as primary crops; an additional 0.54 Pg of crop residue carbon was collected for livestock fodder. In 2011, total livestock feed intake was 2.42 ± 0.21 Pg carbon, of which 2.31 ± 0.21 Pg carbon was emitted as carbon dioxide and 0.072 ± 0.005 Pg carbon was emitted as methane. We estimate that livestock grazed 1.18 Pg carbon from non-crop lands in 2011, representing 48.5 % of global total feed intake. In 2009, the latest available data year, we estimate global human food intake (excluding seafood and orchard fruits and nuts) at 0.52 ± 0.03 Pg carbon, with an additional 0.24 ± 0.01 Pg carbon of food supply chain losses. Trends in production and consumption of agricultural carbon between 1961 and recent years, such as increasing dominance of oilcrops and decreasing percent contribution of pasturage to total livestock feed intake, are discussed, and accounting of all agricultural carbon was done for the years 2005 and 2009. Gridded at 0.05 degree resolution, these quantities represent local uptake and release of agricultural biogenic carbon (e.g. biomass production and removal, residue and manure inputs to soils) and may be used with other gridded data to help estimate current and future changes in soil organic carbon.

  11. Impact of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (Reer) on Turkish Agricultural Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Halil Fidan

    2008-01-01

    In this work, the autoregressive vectors are used to know dynamics of the Agricultural export and import, and the real effective exchange rate (REER). In order to analyze the interactions, the impulse- response function is used in decomposition of variance, causality of Granger as well as the methodology of Johansen to know the relations co integration. The REER causes agricultural export and import in the sense of Granger. The influence displays the innovations of the RE...

  12. Stock Market Co-Movement and Exchange Rate Flexibility : Experience of the Republic of Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Yung Chul; Park, Hail

    2014-01-01

    This paper argues that for countries where equity investments dominate cross-border capital flows, the proper framework for analyzing the role of a flexible exchange rate system as a buffer against external shocks is the uncovered stock return parity condition, rather than the uncovered interest parity condition. Estimation of the stock return parity condition shows that it fails to hold in the Republic of Korea largely because of co-movement in the Republic of Korea and United States stock m...

  13. Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Stavarek, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationships among stock prices and effective exchange rates in four old EU member countries (Austria, France, Germany, and the UK), four new EU member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), and in the United States. Both the long- and short-term causalities between these variables are explored using monthly data. The paper also endeavors to answer the question of whether the linkages between the analyzed economic variables...

  14. Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy – the role of emerging market economies

    OpenAIRE

    Bussière, Matthieu; Peltonen, Tuomas A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper estimates export and import price equations for 41 countries –including 28 emerging market economies. Further, it relates the estimated elasticities to structural factors and tests for statistical breaks in the relation between trade prices and exchange rates. Results indicate that (i) the elasticity of trade prices in emerging markets is sizeable, but not significantly higher than in advanced economies; (ii) such elasticity is primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as ...

  15. Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons

    OpenAIRE

    Izquierdo, Alejandro; Talvi, Ernesto; Calvo, Guillermo A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper offers an alternative explanation for t he fall of Argentina's Convertibility Program based on the country's vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that wreaks havoc in countries that are heavily dollarized in their liabilities, turning otherwise sustainable fiscal and corporate sector positions into unsustainable ones. In particular, we stress that the required change in relative pr...

  16. Evaluating the Impact Of Foreign Exchange Rate Risk On The Capital Budgeting For Multinational Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Carl B. McGowan, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Capital budgeting analysis has evolved to the point where large firms universally use sophisticated capital budgeting techniques.[1] However, small firms are less likely to use sophisticated capital budgeting techniques.[2] Even large firms do not generally use simulation for risk analysis in multinational project capital budgeting analysis.[3] This paper provides a discussion and example of the use of simulation in evaluating the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility on multinational pr...

  17. Monetary and exchange rate policy in small open economies: the case of Iceland

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph Stiglitz

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses monetary and exchange rate policy and the financial risks that are involved for small open economies in the current environment of less restricted and increased volume of global capital movements. It then goes on to analyze the policy interventions that are available to reduce and manage these risks. The specific case of Iceland is discussed within this framework. While it might be preferable if the problems posed by global financial instability are addressed by reforms i...

  18. Revenue Sharing in Professional Sports Leagues as a Hedge for Exchange Rate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Rockerbie, Duane; Easton, Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Professional sports leagues that feature teams in different countries with different currencies are exposed to exchange rate uncertainty and risk. This is particularly evident for three professional sports leagues that feature teams in the United States and Canada. We construct a simple model of a profit-maximizing team that earns its revenue in one currency and meets its payroll obligations in a second currency and participates in a league-imposed revenue sharing plan. Team profit can increa...

  19. ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václava Pánková

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The study on volatility and asymmetry of the exchange rate is applied to the Euro/USD relation. Starting in U.S.A., the financial and economic crisis influenced European Union with a certain delay. On the other hand, this years´ problems in Eurozone are paralleled by rising American economy. That is why we can expect both currencies to develop in different ways. In general, the depreciation deviation of exchange rate can lead to a higher volatility than the appreciation deviation, what implicates asymmetric effects. The uncertainty of exchange rate has a tendency to be inconstant in the time-varying cases, so it has a feature of conditional heteroscedasticity. That is why the models from the ARCH family are employed to study whether the asymmetry is present in the data in question; source: ECB. The Engle – Ng tests for asymmetry in volatility are used to determine whether an asymmetric model is required as adequate. A forecast will be given including an ex post comparison as well as an ex ante prognosis. Financial support from the GA CR project 402/09/0273 and the Research Plan MSM 6138439909 is appreciated.

  20. Experiments probing the influence of air exchange rates on secondary organic aerosols derived from indoor chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weschler, Charles J.; Shields, H.C.

    2003-01-01

    of their particle size distributions. The experiments were performed in a manipulated office setting containing a constant source of d-limonene and an ozone generator that was remotely turned "on" or "off" at 6h intervals. The particle number concentrations were monitored using an optical particle counter...... in these studies, at an air exchange rate of 1.6h $+-1$/ particle number concentration in the 0.1-0.2$mu@m size-range peaked 1.2h after the ozone generator was switched on. In the ensuing 4.8h particle counts increased in successive size-ranges up to the 0.5-0.7$mu@m diameter range. At higher air exchange rates......Reactions between ozone and terpenes have been shown to increase the concentrations of submicron particles in indoor settings. The present study was designed to examine the influence of air exchange rates on the concentrations of these secondary organic aerosols as well as on the evolution...

  1. Volatility spillover between crude oil and exchange rate: A copula-CARR approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Y. J.; Guo, M. Y.

    2017-11-01

    Oil provides a powerful impetus for modern society's production and life. The influences of oil price fluctuations on socio-economic development are obvious, and it draws more attention from scholars. However, the distribution of oil is highly centralized, which leads to the vast majority of oil trading through foreign trade. As a result, exchange rate plays an important role in the oil business. Study on the relationship between exchange rate and crude oil gradually becomes a hot research topic in recent years. In this paper, we use copula and CARR model to study correlation structure and relationship between crude oil price and exchange rate. We establish CARR models as marginal models and use five copulas which are Gaussian Copula, Student-t Copula, Gumbel Copula, Clayton Copula and Frank Copula to study the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Furthermore, we use Copula-CARR model with structural breaks to detect the change points in the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Empirical results show that the change points are closely related to the actual economic events.

  2. The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate regime on real GDP and prices in the Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeqiri Izet

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relative costs and benefits associated with introducing a more active monetary and a different exchange rate regime in the Republic of Macedonia. In this finding, the econometrics result show that introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate targeting in order to promote rapid economic growth could easy disturb macroeconomic stability (after having achieved it at a substantial cost without any significant economic benefits. Therefore, introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate regime is likely to incur more costs than benefits, since changes of the monetary policy and exchange rate regime type do not show a persistent effect on real GDP, while changes of money stock and exchange rate regime do show a strong and persistent effect on prices level.

  3. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange of an invasive plant infestation: new insights on the effects of phenology and management practices on structure and functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnentag, Oliver; Detto, Matteo; Runkle, Benjamin; Hatala, Jaclyn; Vargas, Rodrigo; Kelly, Maggi; Baldocchi, Dennis

    2010-05-01

    The net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange (FC) of invasive plant infestations has been subject of few studies only. Perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium L.) is an aggressive invasive plant with severe economic and environmental consequences for infested ecosystems. A characteristic feature of pepperweed's phenological cycle is the dense arrangement of small white flowers during secondary inflorescence. Little is known about how pepperweed flowering and management practices such as mowing affect canopy structure and canopy photosynthesis (FA) and autotrophic respiration (FAR) and thus ecosystem respiration (FER; FC=FER-FA with FER=FAR+heterotrophic respiration [FHR]). To examine these effects we analyzed three years (2007-2010) of CO2 flux measurements made with eddy covariance, supporting environmental measurements and near-surface remote sensing data (canopy-scale reflectance, digital camera imagery) from a pepperweed-infested pasture in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The measurements cover three meteorologically similar summers (1 May - 30 September) that slightly differed in terms of land use practices. In 2007-2010, the site was subjected to year-round grazing by beef cattle, and in 2008, the site was additionally mowed in mid-May during flowering. We described structural changes in canopy development through seasonal changes in surface roughness for momentum transfer (z0m). Weekly soil CO2 efflux (≈ FHR) estimates from static chamber measurements made over bare soil were used to separate FER into FAR and FHR. We identified the onset of pepperweed's key phenological phases (i.e., germination, early vegetative growth, flowering, seed maturation, senescence, dormancy) through the integrated analysis of albedo of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), a broad-band green normalized difference vegetation index, and a digital camera-based color index. We used non-linear mixed-effects model analysis to investigate the combined

  4. Evaluation and comparison of diffusion MR methods for measuring apparent transcytolemmal water exchange rate constant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xin; Li, Hua; Jiang, Xiaoyu; Xie, Jingping; Gore, John C.; Xu, Junzhong

    2017-02-01

    Two diffusion-based approaches, CG (constant gradient) and FEXI (filtered exchange imaging) methods, have been previously proposed for measuring transcytolemmal water exchange rate constant kin, but their accuracy and feasibility have not been comprehensively evaluated and compared. In this work, both computer simulations and cell experiments in vitro were performed to evaluate these two methods. Simulations were done with different cell diameters (5, 10, 20 μm), a broad range of kin values (0.02-30 s-1) and different SNR's, and simulated kin's were directly compared with the ground truth values. Human leukemia K562 cells were cultured and treated with saponin to selectively change cell transmembrane permeability. The agreement between measured kin's of both methods was also evaluated. The results suggest that, without noise, the CG method provides reasonably accurate estimation of kin especially when it is smaller than 10 s-1, which is in the typical physiological range of many biological tissues. However, although the FEXI method overestimates kin even with corrections for the effects of extracellular water fraction, it provides reasonable estimates with practical SNR's and more importantly, the fitted apparent exchange rate AXR showed approximately linear dependence on the ground truth kin. In conclusion, either CG or FEXI method provides a sensitive means to characterize the variations in transcytolemmal water exchange rate constant kin, although the accuracy and specificity is usually compromised. The non-imaging CG method provides more accurate estimation of kin, but limited to large volume-of-interest. Although the accuracy of FEXI is compromised with extracellular volume fraction, it is capable of spatially mapping kin in practice.

  5. Experimental investigation of rates and mechanisms of isotope exchange (O, H) between volcanic ash and isotopically-labeled water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Gary S.; Bindeman, Ilya N.

    2013-06-01

    The hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios in hydrous minerals and volcanic glass are routinely used as paleo-proxies to infer the isotopic values of meteoric waters and thus paleo-climatic conditions. We report a series of long-term exposure experiments of distal 7700 BP Mt. Mazama ash (-149‰ δ2H, +7‰ δ18O, 3.8 wt.% H2O) with isotopically-labeled water (+650‰ δ2H, +56‰ δ18O). Experiments were done at 70, 40 and 20 °C, and ranged in duration from 1 to 14454 h (˜20 months), to evaluate the rates of deuterium and 18O exchange, and investigate the relative role of exchange and diffusion. We also investigate the effect of drying on H2Otot and δ2H in native and reacted ash that can be used in defining the protocols for natural sample preparation. We employ Thermal Conversion Elemental Analyzer (TCEA) mass spectrometry, thermogravimetric analysis and a KBr pellet technique with infrared spectroscopy to measure the evolution of δ2H, total water, and OH water peaks in the course of exposure experiments, and in varying lengths of vacuum drying. Time series experiments aided by infrared measurements demonstrate the following new results: (i) It wasobserved that from 5 to >100‰ δ2H increases with time, with faster deuterium exchange at higher temperatures. Times at 15% of theoretical "full δ2H exchange" are: 15.8 years at 20 °C, 5.2 years at 40 °C, and 0.4 years at 70 °C. (ii) Even at extended exposure durations experiments show no net increase in water weight percent nor in δ18O in ash; water released from ash rapidly by thermal decomposition is not enriched in δ18O. This observation clearly suggests that it is hydrogen exchange, and not water addition or oxygen exchange that characterizes the process. (iii) Our time series drying, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR)-KBr and Thermogravimetric Analyzer (TGA) analyses collectively suggest a simple mechanistic view that there are three kinds of "water" in ash: water (mostly H2O) that is less strongly bonded

  6. Increased Ratio of Electron Transport to Net Assimilation Rate Supports Elevated Isoprenoid Emission Rate in Eucalypts under Drought1[W][OPEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dani, Kaidala Ganesha Srikanta; Jamie, Ian McLeod; Prentice, Iain Colin; Atwell, Brian James

    2014-01-01

    Plants undergoing heat and low-CO2 stresses emit large amounts of volatile isoprenoids compared with those in stress-free conditions. One hypothesis posits that the balance between reducing power availability and its use in carbon assimilation determines constitutive isoprenoid emission rates in plants and potentially even their maximum emission capacity under brief periods of stress. To test this, we used abiotic stresses to manipulate the availability of reducing power. Specifically, we examined the effects of mild to severe drought on photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) and net carbon assimilation rate (NAR) and the relationship between estimated energy pools and constitutive volatile isoprenoid emission rates in two species of eucalypts: Eucalyptus occidentalis (drought tolerant) and Eucalyptus camaldulensis (drought sensitive). Isoprenoid emission rates were insensitive to mild drought, and the rates increased when the decline in NAR reached a certain species-specific threshold. ETR was sustained under drought and the ETR-NAR ratio increased, driving constitutive isoprenoid emission until severe drought caused carbon limitation of the methylerythritol phosphate pathway. The estimated residual reducing power unused for carbon assimilation, based on the energetic status model, significantly correlated with constitutive isoprenoid emission rates across gradients of drought (r2 > 0.8) and photorespiratory stress (r2 > 0.9). Carbon availability could critically limit emission rates under severe drought and photorespiratory stresses. Under most instances of moderate abiotic stress levels, increased isoprenoid emission rates compete with photorespiration for the residual reducing power not invested in carbon assimilation. A similar mechanism also explains the individual positive effects of low-CO2, heat, and drought stresses on isoprenoid emission. PMID:25139160

  7. Photolithography and Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy used to examine the rates of exchange in reverse micelle systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Zach; Mawson, Cara; Johnson, Kyron; Kessler, Sarah; Rebecca, Anne; Wolf, Nathan; Lim, Michael; Nucci, Nathaniel

    Reverse micelles are molecular complexes that encapsulate a nanoscale pool of water in a surfactant shell dissolved in non-polar solvent. These complexes have a wide range of applications, and in all cases, the degree to which reverse micelles (RM) exchange their contents is relevant for their use. Despite its importance, this aspect of RM behavior is poorly understood. Photolithography is employed here to create micro and nano scale fluidic systems in which mixing rates can be precisely measured using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS). Micro-channel patterns are etched using reactive ion etching process into a layer of silicon dioxide on crystalline silicon substrates. Solutions containing mixtures of reverse micelles, proteins, and fluorophores are placed into reservoirs in the patterns, while diffusion and exchange between RMs is monitored using a FCS system built from a modified confocal Raman spectrometer. Using this approach, the diffusion and exchange rates for RM systems are measured as a function of the components of the RM mixture. Funding provided by Rowan University.

  8. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater Marsh ecosystems in the Florida everglades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sparkle L Malone

    Full Text Available This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2 exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009-2013 from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (-11 to -110 g CO2 m-2 yr-1 compared to El Niño and neutral years (-5 to -43.5 g CO2 m-2 yr-1. SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m-2 yr-1 except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (-16 g CO2 m-2 yr-1. Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades.

  9. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater Marsh ecosystems in the Florida everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, Sparkle L; Staudhammer, Christina L; Oberbauer, Steven F; Olivas, Paulo; Ryan, Michael G; Schedlbauer, Jessica L; Loescher, Henry W; Starr, Gregory

    2014-01-01

    This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009-2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS) and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS) fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (-11 to -110 g CO2 m-2 yr-1) compared to El Niño and neutral years (-5 to -43.5 g CO2 m-2 yr-1). SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m-2 yr-1) except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (-16 g CO2 m-2 yr-1). Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades.

  10. The interactive effect of leader-member exchange and communication frequency on performance ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kacmar, K Michele; Witt, L A; Zivnuska, Suzanne; Gully, Stanley M

    2003-08-01

    The authors tested the hypothesis that communication frequency moderates the relationship between leader-member exchange (LMX) and job-performance ratings. In a study of 188 private sector workers, they found that LMX was more strongly related to job-performance ratings among individuals reporting frequent communication with the supervisor than among those reporting infrequent communication. At high levels of LMX, workers reporting frequent communication with the supervisor received more favorable job-performance ratings than did workers reporting infrequent communication. In contrast, at low levels of LMX, workers reporting frequent communication with the supervisor received less favorable job-performance ratings than workers reporting infrequent communication. The authors conducted a 2nd study of 153 public sector workers to provide a constructive replication and found similar results.

  11. Investigating the Existence of Chaos in Inflation Data in relation to Chaotic Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pritha Das

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Foreign exchange (ForEx rates are amongst the most important economic indices in the international monetary markets. ForEx rate represents the value of one currency in another and it fluctuates over time. It is related to indicators like inflation, interest rate, gross domestic product, and so forth. In a series of works, we investigated and confirmed the chaotic property of ForEx rates by finding positive largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE. As inflation influences ForEx, in this work we would like to address the specific question, Is inflation data also chaotic? We collected data for time period of 2000 to 2013 and tested for nonlinearity in data by surrogate method. Calculating LLE, we find existence of chaos in inflation data for some countries.

  12. Modified Perfluorocarbon Tracer Method for Measuring Effective Multizone Air Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masashi Gamo

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A modified procedure was developed for the measurement of the effective air exchange rate, which represents the relationship between the pollutants emitted from indoor sources and the residents’ level of exposure, by placing the dosers of tracer gas at locations that resemble indoor emission sources. To measure the 24-h-average effective air exchange rates in future surveys based on this procedure, a low-cost, easy-to-use perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT doser with a stable dosing rate was developed by using double glass vials, a needle, a polyethylene-sintered filter, and a diffusion tube. Carbon molecular sieve cartridges and carbon disulfide (CS2 were used for passive sampling and extraction of the tracer gas, respectively. Recovery efficiencies, sampling rates, and lower detection limits for 24-h sampling of hexafluorobenzene, octafluorotoluene, and perfluoroallylbenzene were 40% ± 3%, 72% ± 5%, and 84% ± 6%; 10.5 ± 1.1, 14.4 ± 1.4, and 12.2 ± 0.49 mL min−1; and 0.20, 0.17, and 0.26 μg m–3, respectively.

  13. Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riané de Bruyn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.

  14. Does vapor pressure deficit drive the seasonality of δ13C of the net land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raczka, B.; Biraud, S. C.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Lai, C.-T.; Miller, J. B.; Pataki, D. E.; Saleska, S. R.; Torn, M. S.; Vaughn, B. H.; Wehr, R.; Bowling, D. R.

    2017-08-01

    The seasonal pattern of the carbon isotope content (δ13C) of atmospheric CO2 depends on local and nonlocal land-atmosphere exchange and atmospheric transport. Previous studies suggested that the δ13C of the net land-atmosphere CO2 flux (δsource) varies seasonally as stomatal conductance of plants responds to vapor pressure deficit of air (VPD). We studied the variation of δsource at seven sites across the United States representing forests, grasslands, and an urban center. Using a two-part mixing model, we calculated the seasonal δsource for each site after removing background influence and, when possible, removing δ13C variation of nonlocal sources. Compared to previous analyses, we found a reduced seasonal (March-September) variation in δsource at the forest sites (0.5‰ variation). We did not find a consistent seasonal relationship between VPD and δsource across forest (or other) sites, providing evidence that stomatal response to VPD was not the cause of the global, coherent seasonal pattern in δsource. In contrast to the forest sites, grassland and urban sites had a larger seasonal variation in δsource (5‰) dominated by seasonal transitions in C3/C4 grass productivity and in fossil fuel emissions, respectively. Our findings were sensitive to the location used to account for atmospheric background variation within the mixing model method that determined δsource. Special consideration should be given to background location depending on whether the intent is to understand site level dynamics or regional scale impacts of land-atmosphere exchange. The seasonal amplitude in δ13C of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange (δsource) varied across land cover types and was not driven by seasonal changes in vapor pressure deficit. The largest seasonal amplitudes of δsource were at grassland and urban sites, driven by changes in C3/C4 grass productivity and fossil fuel emissions, respectively. Mixing model approaches may incorrectly calculate δsource when

  15. Uncertainties in the Value of Bill Savings from Behind-the-Meter, Residential Photovoltaic Systems: The Roles of Electricity Market Conditions, Retail Rate Design, and Net Metering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darghouth, Naim Richard

    Net metering has become a widespread policy mechanism in the U.S. for supporting customer adoption of distributed photovoltaics (PV), allowing customers with PV systems to reduce their electric bills by offsetting their consumption with PV generation, independent of the timing of the generation relative to consumption. Although net metering is one of the principal drivers for the residential PV market in the U.S., the academic literature on this policy has been sparse and this dissertation contributes to this emerging body of literature. This dissertation explores the linkages between the availability of net metering, wholesale electricity market conditions, retail rates, and the residential bill savings from behind-the-meter PV systems. First, I examine the value of the bill savings that customers receive under net metering and alternatives to net metering, and the associated role of retail rate design, based on current rates and a sample of approximately two hundred residential customers of California's two largest electric utilities. I find that the bill savings per kWh of PV electricity generated varies greatly, largely attributable to the increasing block structure of the California utilities' residential retail rates. I also find that net metering provides significantly greater bill savings than alternative compensation mechanisms based on avoided costs. However, retail electricity rates may shift as wholesale electricity market conditions change. I then investigate a potential change in market conditions -- increased solar PV penetrations -- on wholesale prices in the short-term based on the merit-order effect. This demonstrates the potential price effects of changes in market conditions, but also points to a number of methodological shortcomings of this method, motivating my usage of a long-term capacity investment and economic dispatch model to examine wholesale price effects of various wholesale market scenarios in the subsequent analysis. By developing

  16. Firm Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Does Trade Openness Matter? Evidence from Mexico´s Manufacturing Sector.

    OpenAIRE

    Fuentes, Miguel de, aut; Ibarrarán, Pablo

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we study the effect of NAFTA on the responsiveness of the Mexican economy to real exchange rate shocks. We argue that, by opening the U.S. and Canadian markets to Mexican goods, NAFTA made it easier for domestic producers to take advantage of the opportunities brought by the depreciation of the real exchange rate. To identify this mechanism, we use plant-level data and compare the behavior of employment, production and investment after two big real exchange rate shocks: the firs...

  17. Exchange Rate as a Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment: Does it Really Matter? Theoretical Aspects, Literature Review and Applied Proposal.

    OpenAIRE

    Ruiz, Isabel Cristina

    2005-01-01

    This paper re-examines the role of exchange rates as determinant of FDI. It extends the analysis to include the issue of how exchange rates determine the decision of invest in one country depending on whether the firm is deciding to invest on the country to service the local market or to invest on the country in order to re-export. This paper offers a broad literature review of the state of the empirical research in order to draw conclusions of the real importance of the exchange rate as a de...

  18. The importance of corporate foreign debt as an alternative to currency derivatives in actual management of exchange rate exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non-financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency ("foreign debt") is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relative...

  19. Microbial desalination cells packed with ion-exchange resin to enhance water desalination rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morel, Alexandre; Zuo, Kuichang; Xia, Xue; Wei, Jincheng; Luo, Xi; Liang, Peng; Huang, Xia

    2012-08-01

    A novel configuration of microbial desalination cell (MDC) packed with ion-exchange resin (R-MDC) was proposed to enhance water desalination rate. Compared with classic MDC (C-MDC), an obvious increase in desalination rate (DR) was obtained by R-MDC. With relatively low concentration (10-2 g/L NaCl) influents, the DR values of R-MDC were about 1.5-8 times those of C-MDC. Ion-exchange resins packed in the desalination chamber worked as conductor and thus counteracted the increase in ohmic resistance during treatment of low concentration salt water. Ohmic resistances of R-MDC stabilized at 3.0-4.7 Ω. By contrast, the ohmic resistances of C-MDC ranged from 5.5 to 12.7 Ω, which were 55-272% higher than those of R-MDC. Remarkable improvement in desalination rate helped improve charge efficiency for desalination in R-MDC. The results first showed the potential of R-MDC in the desalination of water with low salinity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case

    OpenAIRE

    Bouoiyour, Jamal; Rey, Serge

    2005-01-01

    We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000. We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows, i.e. the exports and the imports. The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a redu...

  1. The Proximity-Concentration Trade-Off under Goods Price and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yalcin, Erdal

    The underlying model combines the proximity-concentration trade-o? framework with the real option approach. In contrast to the latest trade models, uncertainty is introduced as a continuous phenomenon. Furthermore, the model contains the innovation of comparing two option values simultaneously....... The implementation of goods price uncertainty turns out to reduce the probability of entering a new market as an exporter. FDI becomes the optimal entry mode with increasing uncertainty. Additionally, the model is extended by implementing exchange rate uncertainty in a period of appreciation....

  2. The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Reshid, Abdulaziz Abrar; Tarp, Finn

    ‡ows Tanzania experienced positive investment and GDP growth from the late 1960s to 2007. But, until the mid-1980s, the impact of aid on growth was well below its potential as the large in‡ows of aid facilitated a serious overappreciation of the real exchange rate. In Ghana, declining aid in the 1970s...... was associated with lacking growth while the reactivation of aid ‡ows in the 1980s supported an economic rebound. When monetary and external factors are properly accounted for, we …nd that aid has been pivotal to growth in both real GDP and investment....

  3. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  4. Asymmetric Effects of Global Liquidity Expansion on Foreign Portfolio Inflows, Exchange Rates, and Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Eun Rhee

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of global liquidity expansion on advanced and emerging economies by using panel VAR methodology. The results show that global liquidity expansion tends to boost economy by increasing GDP growth and stock prices. However, we find that the effects are asymmetric. The effects of global liquidity on GDP and stock prices are greater and more persistent in emerging economies than in liquidity recipient advanced economies. Moreover, global liquidity appreciates emerging economies' exchange rates more persistently than those of advanced economies. Lastly, while global liquidity expansion increases foreign portfolio investment inflows to Asian countries and liquidity recipient advanced economies, there is no evidence for Latin American countries.

  5. The Possible Trinity: Optimal Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Taxes on Capital Flows in a DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Guillermo J Escudé

    2014-01-01

      A traditional way of thinking about the exchange rate (XR) regime and capital account openness has been framed in terms of the 'impossible trinity' or 'trilemma', in which policymakers can only have 2 of 3 possible outcomes...

  6. Kinetics of intramolecular chemical exchange by initial growth rates of spin saturation transfer difference experiments (SSTD NMR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quirós, M Teresa; Angulo, Jesús; Muñoz, María Paz

    2015-06-25

    We report here the Initial Growth Rates SSTD NMR method, as a new powerful tool to obtain the kinetic parameters of intramolecular chemical exchange in challenging small organic and organometallic molecules.

  7. The Effect of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Ehimare OMANKHANLEN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This study is on the effect of exchange rate and inflation on foreign direct investment and its relationship with economic growth. Its main objective is to find the effect of inflation and exchange rate and the bidirectional influences between FDI and economic growth in Nigeria. A thirty year period was studied. A linear regression analysis was used on the thirty year data to determine the relationship between inflation, exchange rate, FDI inflows and economic growth. The study reveals that FDI follow economic growth occasioned by trade openness which saw the entry of some major companies especially the telecommunication companies, while Inflation has no effect on FDI. However exchange rate has effect on FDI.

  8. Research of the relationship between delayed fluorescence and net photosynthesis rate in spinach under NaCl stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lingrui; Xing, Da

    2006-09-01

    Under NaCl stress conditions, the relationship between delayed fluorescence (DF) and net photosynthesis rate (Pn) in detached leaves of spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) was surveyed. Results showed that the changes in DF intensity of the spinach leaves directly exposed to different NaCl concentrations demonstrated considerably high consistency with that in Pn. Incubation of the leaves in 200mmol/L NaCl induced a gradual increase and subsequent decline of the DF intensity and Pu, whereas incubation of the leaves in 300mmol/L NaCl induced a continuous decline of the DF intensity and Pn, suggesting that DF bad the same response to duration of treatment of different NaC1 concentrations with Pn. Both DF and Pn showed maximal Ca 2+ antagonism effects on stress of high concentration NaC1 when the concentration of CaC1 II reached l5mmolfL. All the results demonstrated that DF has an excellent correlation with Pn and can be used as a sensitive test for the state of photosynthetic apparatus under salt stress physiology.

  9. Modeled dosage-response relationship on the net photosynthetic rate for the sensitivity to acid rain of 21 plant species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shihuai; Gou, Shuzhen; Sun, Baiye; Lv, Wenlin; Li, Yuanwei; Peng, Hong; Xiao, Hong; Yang, Gang; Wang, Yingjun

    2012-08-01

    This study investigated the sensitivity of plant species to acid rain based on the modeled dosage-response relationship on the net photosynthetic rate (P (N)) of 21 types of plant species, subjected to the exposure of simulated acid rain (SAR) for 5 times during a period of 50 days. Variable responses of P (N) to SAR occurred depending on the type of plant. A majority (13 species) of the dosage-response relationship could be described by an S-shaped curve and be fitted with the Boltzmann model. Model fitting allowed quantitative evaluation of the dosage-response relationship and an accurate estimation of the EC(10), termed as the pH of the acid rain resulting in a P (N) 10 % lower than the reference value. The top 9 species (Camellia sasanqua, Cinnamomum camphora, etc. EC(10) ≤ 3.0) are highly endurable to very acid rain. The rare, relict plant Metasequoia glyptostroboides was the most sensitive species (EC(10) = 5.1) recommended for protection.

  10. High-frequency data and the effectiveness of the spot exchange rate EUR/USD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Zeman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The boom of information technology in recent years significantly influenced the development of the financial markets. Financial markets have become accessible to the public, and increased demand for financial instruments is inevitably reflected in the advanced menu of securities dealers who currently offer a wide variety of investment in the underlying assets and through financial leverage allows investors to profit from tiny price changes of the underlying asset. Shortening of trading period and increasing the frequency of the trades clearly contributes to the growth of profits of securities dealers. The question remains whether this trading method offers the advantage to the investor himself, and whether the investor is able to take advantage of potential market inefficiencies to achieve above-average profits in the short term period. Therefore, this paper analyzes the behaviour of the spot exchange rate EUR/USD within a day, and through statistical tests examining the validity of the random walk hypothesis for the 5-minute, hourly, 4-hourly and daily changes in the spot exchange rate of the currency pair EUR/USD.

  11. Optimal Allocation of Heat Exchanger Inventory Associated with Fixed Power Output or Fixed Heat Transfer Rate Input

    OpenAIRE

    COSTEA M.; Petrescu, S; K. Le Saos; Michel Feidt

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal distribution of the heat transfer surface area or conductance among the Stirling engine heat exchangers when the minimum of the total heat transfer surface area of the heat exchangers is sought. The optimization procedure must fulfill one of the following constraints: (1) fixed power output of the engine, (2) fixed heat transfer rate available at the source, or (3) fixed power output and heat transfer rate at the source. Internal and exter...

  12. Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the cfa franc zone after the cfa franc devaluation of January 1994

    OpenAIRE

    Kuikeu, Oscar

    2013-01-01

    In cfa franc zone, the exchange rate was devalued, in January 1994, in order to deal with the major macroeconomic imbalances that have affected the members during the 1980 decade. Thus, the aim of this paper is to assess the degree of over/undervaluation (namely real exchange rate misalignment) of the currency in the cfa franc zone since the cfa franc devaluation of January 1994.

  13. Eloquence is The Key – the Impact of Monetary Policy Speeches on Exchange Rate Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Cantemir Călin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available During the last years the monetary policy initiatives of the main central banks have been profoundly influenced by quantitative easing (QE. Blessing, curse, effective instruments or a simple fad, these unconventional measures have occupied the center stage of academic and public attention. In this context, this paper focuses on a wide set of public speeches delivered by officials belonging to the most relevant central banks. These statements cover a large pallet of topics including areas such as QE, tapering, financial stability, unemployment or interest rates. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact that these speeches have on the volatility of exchange rates. For this purpose, the methodology relies on an econometric event study that incorporates three volatility models and intraday five-minute frequencies. The results indicate the fact that public statements have a clear, evident, significant and robust impact on the observed assets.

  14. Saturation-recovery metabolic‐exchange rate imaging with hyperpolarized [1‐13C] pyruvate using spectral‐spatial excitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schulte, Rolf F.; Sperl, Jonathan I.; Weidl, Eliane

    2013-01-01

    ‐recovery” scheme with the detected signal content being determined by forward conversion of the available pyruvate. In case of repetitive excitations, the polarization is preserved using smaller flip angles for pyruvate. Metabolic exchange rates are determined spatially resolved from the metabolite images using...... a simplified two‐site exchange model. This novel contrast is an important step toward more quantitative metabolic imaging. Goal of this work was to derive, analyze, and implement this “saturation‐recovery metabolic exchange rate imaging” and demonstrate its capabilities in four rats bearing subcutaneous tumors...

  15. The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serdar Ongan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of real exchange rates and income on inbound tourism demand (tourist arrivals from Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and Sweden to the USA over the period 1996Q3–2015Q1. To achieve this aim, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP for Restaurants and Hotels was used for the first time—instead of using the general Consumer Price Index (CPI—to transform the nominal exchange rate into the real exchange rate as an independent variable in tourism demand analysis models. Panel co-integration analysis under the cross-sectional dependence (CD test and common correlated effects (CCE approach was applied. Empirical results show that tourists visiting the USA are more sensitive to changes in the real exchange rate than changes in GDP. While French tourists respond highly to the GDP, British tourists respond highly to the real exchange rate. It should also be noted that the UK, having the highest responsiveness to the real exchange rate, is a country outside the Eurozone and also intends to leave the European Union.

  16. Dynamic relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and market anxiety: A new perspective based on MF-DCCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Sun, Xinxin; Ge, Jintian

    2017-05-01

    This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and market anxiety during the period from January 5, 1998 to April 18, 2016. A quantitative technique of multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) is used to explore the multifractal features of the cross-correlations between USD/JPY, AUD/JPY exchange rates and the market anxiety gauge VIX. The investigation shows that the causal relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and VIX are bidirectional in general, and the cross-correlations between the two sets of time series are multifractal. Strong evidence suggests that the cross-correlation exponents tend to exhibit different volatility patterns in response to diverse external shocks such as financial distress and widening in interest rate spread, suggesting that the cross-correlated behavior between Japanese Yen exchange rates and VIX are susceptible to economic uncertainties and risks. In addition, the performances of two market anxiety gauges, the VIX and the TED spread, are compared and the sources of multifractality are also traced. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature by shedding light on the unique driving forces of the Yen exchange rate fluctuations in the international foreign exchange market.

  17. On the difference in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between deciduous and evergreen forests in the southeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Kimberly A; Oishi, A Christopher; Ward, Eric J; Siqueira, Mario B S; Juang, Jehn-Yih; Stoy, Paul C

    2015-02-01

    The southeastern United States is experiencing a rapid regional increase in the ratio of pine to deciduous forest ecosystems at the same time it is experiencing changes in climate. This study is focused on exploring how these shifts will affect the carbon sink capacity of southeastern US forests, which we show here are among the strongest carbon sinks in the continental United States. Using eight-year-long eddy covariance records collected above a hardwood deciduous forest (HW) and a pine plantation (PP) co-located in North Carolina, USA, we show that the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) was more variable in PP, contributing to variability in the difference in NEE between the two sites (ΔNEE) at a range of timescales, including the interannual timescale. Because the variability in evapotranspiration (ET) was nearly identical across the two sites over a range of timescales, the factors that determined the variability in ΔNEE were dominated by those that tend to decouple NEE from ET. One such factor was water use efficiency, which changed dramatically in response to drought and also tended to increase monotonically in nondrought years (P temperate climates. Additional variability in the fluxes at long-time scales may be attributable to slowly evolving factors, including canopy structure and increases in dormant season air temperature. Taken together, study results suggest that the carbon sink in the southeastern United States may become more variable in the future, owing to a predicted increase in drought frequency and an increase in the fractional cover of southern pines. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Adaptive Rule-Based Piece-Wise Regression Models for Estimating Regional Net Ecosystem Exchange in Grassland and Shrubland Ecoregions Using Regional and Flux Tower Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosnight, E. A.; Wylie, B. K.; Zhang, L.

    2005-12-01

    The scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle requires quantitative documentation, monitoring, and projection of carbon stocks and fluxes at various scales across the landscape. The challenge is to develop predictive models using carbon flux towers at site-specific locations, and to extrapolate these models to landscapes and regions. We use remote sensing and national climate and soil databases within data-driven models to estimate carbon fluxes. To accommodate the study of coupled human-environmental relationships and their influences on carbon dynamics, a coherent suite of models is being developed for agricultural, wooded and wetland ecosystems within predominantly grassland and shrubland ecoregions. In previous work, we have mapped carbon fluxes in terms of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Gross Primary Production (GPP), and Respiration (Re) in the Northern Great Plains, the Sagebrush Steppes and the Kazakh Steppes at 1-km resolution and 10-day time steps. We now extend this work beyond fairly uniform ecological conditions to accommodate more complex spatial mixtures of ecological types within ecoregions. The models need to adapt to both the complexity of the environmental variables and the land cover patterns. Our rule-based models adapt to local climatic, soil and phenology through the definition of piece-wise regression models. A suite of such models is needed to capture the phenologic and climatic variability across the wide range of shrubland and grassland ecoregions that exist. The result is a multi-year time series of 1-km maps of carbon flux that are suitable for trend and anomaly analysis. We seek sensitive models that permit the effective study of localized carbon dynamics while avoiding over-fitting the available carbon flux tower measurement data. Two critical components of the project are (1) sensitivity and cross-validation studies to evaluate the internal consistencies of the models and (2) intercomparison studies to help isolate

  19. The effects of clouds and aerosols on net ecosystem CO2 exchange over semi-arid Loess Plateau of Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Wang

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of clouds and atmospheric aerosols on the terrestrial carbon cycle at semi-arid Loess Plateau in Northwest China are investigated, by using the observation data obtained at the SACOL (Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University site. Daytime (solar elevation angles of larger than 50° net ecosystem exchange (NEE of CO2 obtained during the midgrowing season (July–August are analyzed with respect to variations in the diffuse radiation, cloud cover and aerosol optical depth (AOD. Results show a significant impact by clouds on the CO2 uptake by the grassland (with smaller LAI values located in a semi-arid region, quite different from areas covered by forests and crops. The light saturation levels in the canopy are low, with a value of about 434.8 W m−2. Thus, under overcast conditions of optically thick clouds, the CO2 uptake increases with increasing clearness index (the ratio of global solar radiation received at the Earth surface to the extraterrestrial irradiance at a plane parallel to the Earth surface, and a maximum CO2 uptake and light use efficiency of vegetation occur with the clearness index of about 0.37 and lower air temperature. Under other sky conditions, CO2 uptake decreases with cloudiness but light use efficiency is enhanced, due to increased diffuse fraction of PAR. Additionally, under cloudy conditions, changes in the NEE of CO2 also result from the interactions of many environmental factors, especially the air temperature. In contrast to its response to changes in solar radiation, the carbon uptake shows a slightly negative response to increased AOD. The reason for the difference in the response of the semi-arid grassland from that of the forest and crop lands may be due to the difference in the canopy's architectural structure.

  20. Mosquito abundance, bed net coverage and other factors associated with variations in sporozoite infectivity rates in four villages of rural Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kweka, Eliningaya J; Nkya, Watoky M M; Mahande, Aneth M

    2008-01-01

    . Sporozoite infectivity rates, mosquito host blood meal source, bed net coverage and mosquito abundance were assessed in this study. METHODOLOGY: A longitudinal survey was conducted in four villages in two regions of Tanzania. Malaria vectors were sampled using the CDC light trap and pyrethrum spray catch......,628 (81.8%) Anopheles arabiensis, 1,100 (15.9%) Culex quinquefasciatus, 89 (1.4%) Anopheles funestus, and 66 (0.9%) Anopheles gambiae s.s. Of the total mosquitoes collected 3,861 were captured by CDC light trap and 3,022 by the pyrethrum spray catch method. The overall light trap: spray catch ratio was 1.......3:1. Mosquito densities per room were 96.5 and 75.5 for light trap and pyrethrum spray catch respectively. Mosquito infectivity rates between villages that have high proportion of bed net owners and those without bed nets was significant (P