WorldWideScience

Sample records for net exchange rates

  1. Net capital flows to and the real exchange rate of Western Balkan countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrisch Hubert

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses Granger causality tests to assess the linkages between changes in the real exchange rate and net capital inflows using the example of Western Balkan countries, which have suffered from low competitiveness and external imbalances for many years. The real exchange rate is a measure of a country’s price competitiveness, and the paper uses two concepts: relative unit labour cost and relative inflation differential. The sample consists of six Western Balkan countries for the period 1996-2012, relative to the European Union (EU. The main finding is that changes in the net capital flows precede changes in relative unit labour costs and not vice versa. Also, there is evidence that net capital flows affect the inflation differential of countries, although to a less discernible extent. This suggests that the increasing divergence in the unit labour cost between the EU and Western Balkan countries up to the global financial crisis was at least partly the result of net capital inflows. The paper adds to the ongoing debate on improving cost competitiveness through wage restrictions as the main vehicle to avert the accumulation of current account imbalances. It shows the importance of changes in the exchange rate regime, reform of the interaction between the financial and the real sector, and financial supervision and structural change.

  2. Single interval longwave radiation scheme based on the net exchanged rate decomposition with bracketing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Geleyn, J.- F.; Mašek, Jan; Brožková, Radmila; Kuma, P.; Degrauwe, D.; Hello, G.; Pristov, N.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 143, č. 704 (2017), s. 1313-1335 ISSN 0035-9009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : numerical weather prediction * climate models * clouds * parameterization * atmospheres * formulation * absorption * scattering * accurate * database * longwave radiative transfer * broadband approach * idealized optical paths * net exchanged rate decomposition * bracketing * selective intermittency Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.444, year: 2016

  3. Net CO2 exchange rates in three different successional stages of the 'Dark Taiga' of central Siberia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roeser, C.; Schulze, E.D.; Montagnani, L.

    2002-01-01

    The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of successional stages of the Abies-dominated dark taiga was measured in central Siberia (61 deg N, 90 deg E) during the growing season of the year 2000 using the eddy covariance technique. Measurements started before snow melt and canopy activity in spring on day of year (DOY) 99 and lasted until a permanent snow cover had developed and respiration had ceased in autumn DOY 299. Three stands growing in close vicinity were investigated: 50 yr-old Betula pubescens ('Betula stand', an early successional stage after fire), 250 yr-old mixed boreal forest, representing the transition from Betula-dominated to Abies-dominated canopies, and 200-yr-old Abies sibirica ('Abies stand', representing a late successional stage following the mixed boreal forest). The mixed boreal forest had a multi-layered canopy with dense under story and trees of variable height and age below the main canopy, which was dominated by Abies sibirica, Picea obovata and few old Betula pubescens and Populus tremula trees. The Abies stand had a uniform canopy dominated by Abies sibirica. This stand appears to have established not after fire but after wind break or insect damage in a later successional stage. The stands differed with respect to the number of days with net CO 2 uptake (Betula stand 89 days, mixed boreal forest 109 days, and Abies stand 135 days), maximum measured LAI (Betula 2.6 m 2 /m 2 , mixed boreal forest 3.5 m 2 /m 2 and Abies stand 4.1 m 2 /m 2 ) and basal area (Betula stand 30.2 m 2 /ha, mixed boreal forest 35.7 m 2 /ha, and Abies stand 46.5 m 2 /ha). In the mixed boreal forest, many days with net daytime CO 2 release were observed in summer. Both other sites were almost permanent sinks in summer. Mean daytime CO 2 exchange rates in July were 8.45 mol/m 2 /s in the Betula stand, 4.65 mol/m 2 /s in the mixed boreal forest and 6.31 mol/m 2 /s in the Abies stand. Measured uptake for the growing season was 247.2 g C/m 2 in the Betula stand, 99.7 g C/m 2

  4. Long-term influence of tillage and fertilization on net carbon dioxide exchange rate on two soils with different textures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiziene, Dalia; Feiza, Virginijus; Slepetiene, Alvyra; Liaudanskiene, Inga; Kadziene, Grazina; Deveikyte, Irena; Vaideliene, Asta

    2011-01-01

    The importance of agricultural practices to greenhouse gas mitigation is examined worldwide. However, there is no consensus on soil organic carbon (SOC) content and CO emissions as affected by soil management practices and their relationships with soil texture. No-till (NT) agriculture often results in soil C gain, though, not always. Soil net CO exchange rate (NCER) and environmental factors (SOC, soil temperature [T], and water content [W]), as affected by soil type (loam and sandy loam), tillage (conventional, reduced, and NT), and fertilization, were quantified in long-term field experiments in Lithuania. Soil tillage and fertilization affected total CO flux (heterotrophic and autotrophic) through effect on soil SOC sequestration, water, and temperature regime. After 11 yr of different tillage and fertilization management, SOC content was 23% more in loam than in sandy loam. Long-term NT contributed to 7 to 27% more SOC sequestration on loam and to 29 to 33% more on sandy loam compared with reduced tillage (RT) or conventional tillage (CT). Soil water content in loam was 7% more than in sandy loam. Soil gravimetric water content, averaged across measurement dates and fertilization treatments, was significantly less in NT than CT and RT in both soils. Soil organic carbon content and water storage capacity of the loam and sandy loam soils exerted different influences on NCER. The NCER from the sandy loam soil was 13% greater than that from the loam. In addition, NCER was 4 to 9% less with NT than with CT and RT systems on both loam and sandy loam soils. Application of mineral NPK fertilizers promoted significantly greater NCER from loam but suppressed NCER by 15% from sandy loam. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  5. Exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Bev

    2003-09-01

    IN MAY this year, I was lucky enough to go to Larissa in northern Greece as part of Hope Exchange 2003, an annual study tour organised by the European Union's hospital committee and administered by the Institute of Healthcare Management (IHM).

  6. Exchange rate policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plačkov Slađana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small oscillations of exchange rate certainly affect the loss of confidence in the currency (Serbian dinar, CSD and because of the shallow market even the smallest change in the supply and demand leads to a shift in exchange rate and brings uncertainty. Some economists suggest that the course should be linked to inflation and thus ensure predictable and stable exchange rates. Real exchange rate or slightly depressed exchange rate will encourage the competitiveness of exporters and perhaps ensure the development of new production lines which, in terms of overvalued exchange rate, had no economic justification. Fixed exchange rate will bring lower interest rates, lower risk and lower business uncertainty (uncertainty avoidance, but Serbia will also reduce foreign exchange reserves by following this trend. On the other hand, a completely free exchange rate, would lead to a (real fall of Serbian currency, which in a certain period would lead to a significant increase in exports, but the consequences for businessmen and citizens with loans pegged to the euro exchange rate, would be disastrous. We will pay special attention to the depreciation of the exchange rate, as it is generally favorable to the export competitiveness of Serbia and, on the other hand, it leads to an increase in debt servicing costs of the government as well as of the private sector. Oscillations of the dinar exchange rate, appreciation and depreciation, sometimes have disastrous consequences on the economy, investors, imports and exports. In subsequent work, we will observe the movement of the dinar exchange rate in Serbia, in the time interval 2009-2012, in order to strike a balance and maintain economic equilibrium. A movement of foreign currencies against the local currency is controlled in the foreign exchange market, so in case economic interests require, The National Bank of Serbia (NBS, on the basis of arbitrary criteria, can intervene in the market.

  7. Floating Exchange Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Quader, Syed Manzur

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, many developing countries having a history of high inflation, unfavorable balance of payment situation and a high level of foreign currencies denominated debt, have switched or are in the process of switching to a more flexible exchange rate regime. Therefore, the stability of the exchange rate and the dynamics of its volatility are more crucial than before to prevent financial crises and macroeconomic disturbances. This paper is designed to find out the reasons behind Bangla...

  8. Real exchange rate misalignments

    OpenAIRE

    Terra, Maria Cristina T.; Valladares, Frederico Estrella Carneiro

    2003-01-01

    This paper characterizes episodes of real appreciations and depreciations for a sample of 85 countries, approximately from 1960 to 1998. First, the equilibrium real exchange rate series are constructed for each country using Goldfajn and Valdes (1999) methodology (cointegration with fundamentals). Then, departures from equilibrium real exchange rate (misalignments) are obtained, and a Markov Switching Model is used to characterize the misalignments series as stochastic autor...

  9. Basic Exchange Rate Theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis four-chapter overview of basic exchange rate theories discusses (i) the elasticity and absorption approach, (ii) the (long-run) implications of the monetary approach, (iii) the short-run effects of monetary and fiscal policy under various economic conditions, and (iv) the transition

  10. Exchange rate smoothing in Hungary

    OpenAIRE

    Karádi, Péter

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a structural empirical model capable of examining exchange rate smoothing in the small, open economy of Hungary. The framework assumes the existence of an unobserved and changing implicit exchange rate target. The central bank is assumed to use interest rate policy to obtain this preferred rate in the medium term, while market participants are assumed to form rational expectations about this target and influence exchange rates accordingly. The paper applies unobserved varia...

  11. Automated exchange transfusion and exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funato, M; Shimada, S; Tamai, H; Taki, H; Yoshioka, Y

    1989-10-01

    An automated blood exchange transfusion (BET) with a two-site technique has been devised by Goldmann et al and by us, using an infusion pump. With this method, we successfully performed exchange transfusions 189 times in the past four years on 110 infants with birth weights ranging from 530 g to 4,000 g. The exchange rate by the automated method was compared with the rate by Diamond's method. Serum bilirubin (SB) levels before and after BET and the maximal SB rebound within 24 hours after BET were: 21.6 +/- 2.4, 11.5 +/- 2.2, and 15.0 +/- 1.5 mg/dl in the automated method, and 22.0 +/- 2.9, 11.2 +/- 2.5, and 17.7 +/- 3.2 mg/dl in Diamond's method, respectively. The result showed that the maximal rebound of the SB level within 24 hours after BET was significantly lower in the automated method than in Diamond's method (p less than 0.01), though SB levels before and after BET were not significantly different between the two methods. The exchange rate was also measured by means of staining the fetal red cells (F cells) both in the automated method and in Diamond's method, and comparing them. The exchange rate of F cells in Diamond's method went down along the theoretical exchange curve proposed by Diamond, while the rate in the automated method was significantly better than in Diamond's, especially in the early stage of BET (p less than 0.01). We believe that the use of this automated method may give better results than Diamond's method in the rate of exchange, because this method is performed with a two-site technique using a peripheral artery and vein.

  12. Can Exchange Rates Be Predicted?

    OpenAIRE

    Siriwutiset, Trin

    2007-01-01

    Foreign exchange rates produce significant impacts on both the macroeconomic and microeconomic scale. Countries� government and multinational companies have been seeking ways to stabilize the exchange rates for a few decades. However, there is no perfect consensus on methods to control and stabilize the exchange rates. In fact, there are several occasions in history where turbulence movements caused crisis in the economies. There are several factors that are identified by economis...

  13. Real Exchange Rates in Advanced Transition Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Grubacic

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The recent evidence from Eastern Europe suggests that one of the major obstacles towards the adoption of euro may lie in the impact that the recession of 2008 exerted on the trajectory of real exchange rates in new member countries (European Commission, 2015.  This paper aims to establish and explain the relationship between the external shocks derived from the global financial crisis and recession of 2008 and equilibrium real exchange rate in advanced transition economies of Eastern Europe. The interplay between the external and internal balances is explained by developing an inter-temporal optimizing model of the real exchange rate determination in a small open economy with structural distortions. The results of our model suggest that, in the aftermath of recession, if the Eastern European economies attempt to restore and maintain the balance between the consumption, saving, and investment, the equilibrium real exchange rate will tend to reverse its trajectory from appreciation to depreciation over time in order to encourage a greater production in the future. The equilibrium real exchange rate depreciation in the future may obtain either as a result of an increase in the direct subsidies on investment or as a result of reduced subsidies on the "net-of-investment" income.  The deprecation of countries’ real exchange rate, however, may continue to act as an effective constraint against the adoption of euro.

  14. 9Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the impact of real exchange rate misalignment has not received adequate attention .... investment (FDI) and the commercial exploitation of oil in 1999. Notably, the flow of .... the analysis proceeds in two steps: 1) we measure the exchange rate misalignment, ... non-tradable goods (TAX) and the net foreign income (NFI).

  15. Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Eatzaz Ahmad; Saima Ahmed Ali

    1999-01-01

    This paper studies simultaneous determination of nominal exchange rate and domestic price level in Pakistan. The estimated model contains sufficient built-in dynamics to trace the pattern and speed of adjustment in the two variables in response to temporary or permanent shocks. The two domestic shocks considered in the paper are monetary and real shocks, while the three external shocks considered are import price, export price and foreign exchange reserves shocks. The study finds that the imp...

  16. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATES

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    ALEŠA LOTRIČ DOLINAR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using spectral analysis is very common in technical areas but rather unusual in economics and finance, where ARIMA and GARCH modeling are much more in use. To show that spectral analysis can be useful in determining hidden periodic components for high-frequency finance data as well, we use the example of foreign exchange rates

  17. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

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    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  18. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

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    Minh Thi Hong Le

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the panel data and, then, a GMM estimator is employed to ensure the consistency of the estimates. The results point out that the exchange rate exposure of these countries is asymmetric. At market level, for a rise in the exchange rate (or local currency depreciates, the average stock returns tend to decrease. However, due to the favourable impact of currency depreciation on the net export position, the reduction speed of stock returns is faster than the rising speed of the exchange rate.

  19. Exchange Rate Policy in Philippine Development

    OpenAIRE

    Bautista, Romeo M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines the conduct of exchange rate policy in the Philippines since the early 1980s, paying particular attention to the influence of exchange rate adjustments on relative production incentives. While primary interest is in the exchange rate regime and its incentive effects, the role of trade policy has to be simultaneously analyzed in view of its influence on the conduct of exchange rate policy as well as its direct effect on the real exchange rate. Moreover, there are analytical...

  20. Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Justin M. Dubas; Byung-Joo Lee; Nelson C. Mark

    2005-01-01

    We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by as...

  1. Exchange Rate Volatility, Its Determinants and Effects on the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Chimaobi V. Okolo; Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi; Kenneth A. Okpala

    2017-01-01

    This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques an...

  2. International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility for emerging markets

    OpenAIRE

    Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio inflows on exchange rate volatility, using monthly bilateral data for the US vis-a-vis eight Asian developing and emerging countries (India, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Thailand, the Philippines, and Taiwan) over the period 1993:01-2012:11, and estimating a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model. We find that net equity (bond) inflows drive the exchange rate to a high (low) volatility state. ...

  3. Measuring real exchange rate misalignment in Croatia: cointegration approach

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    Irena Palić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyze misalignment of the real exchange rate in Croatia. The misalignment analysis is conducted using the permanent equilibrium exchange rate approach. The equilibrium real exchange rate is computed using the cointegration approach whereby the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, namely terms of trade, net foreign assets and the ratio of prices of tradables to non-tradables are included in cointegration analysis. The Hodrick and Prescott filter is used to obtain permanent values of the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate misalignment is computed as the deviation of the RER from its permanent equilibrium level. Four overvaluation periods and three undervaluation periods are recorded in Croatia in the observed period. Overvaluation periods are more often and of longer duration than undervaluation periods. However, the real exchange rate does not deviate largely from its estimated equilibrium value in the observed period, and it is neither overvalued nor undervalued constantly, but the periods alternate. Considering the results of the analysis, together with the empirical characteristics of Croatian economy, namely the high foreign currency indebtedness, highly euroized economy and underdeveloped export oriented sector, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is not recommended to economic policy makers and the current Croatian exchange rate policy is appropriate.

  4. Exchange rate rebounds after foreign exchange market interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-03-01

    This study examined the rebounds in the exchange rate after foreign exchange intervention. When intervention is strongly effective, the exchange rate rebounds at next day. The effect of intervention is reduced slightly by the rebound after the intervention. The exchange rate might have been 67.12-77.47 yen to a US dollar without yen-selling/dollar-purchasing intervention of 74,691,100 million yen implemented by the Japanese government since 1991, in comparison to the actual exchange rate was 103.19 yen to the US dollar at the end of March 2014.

  5. Measuring the costs of exchange rate volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Paul R. Bergin

    2004-01-01

    Many countries go to great lengths to manage their exchange rates. Probably the most prominent recent example is the European Monetary Union, where all the members abandoned their national currencies and adopted the euro. A number of developing countries maintain other kinds of regimes of managed exchange rates, even though they face potent market pressures to let their exchange rates float. One of the main motives for these arrangements stems from the extreme volatility of exchange rates. Th...

  6. The Deceptive Resilience of Fixed Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Mushin, Jerry

    2004-01-01

    This paper is an examination of the experience of exchange-rate systems since 1978. Despite the accelerating trend in favour of floating exchange rates, a substantial minority of IMF members have continued to fix the value of their currencies. The recent incidence of each of the principal types of exchange-rate peg is described.

  7. Annual variation in the net longshore sediment transport rate

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schoonees, JS

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available The annual variation in the net long shore sediment transport rates at three South African and at one North African site is investigated. The net rates at these sites, given in the first table, showed large variations. It was found that measurements...

  8. Fiscal deficits, exchange rate crises and inflation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1991-01-01

    This article extends earlier work on unsustainable monetary policies by endogenizing the regime switch that ultimately restores sustainability. Within this framework we analyze exchange rate based stabilization programs and shows how constraints on Central Bank borrowing during an exchange crisis

  9. The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia

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    Manuel BENAZIC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The dilemma for every country with an independent monetary policy is which kind of exchange rate arrangement should be applied. Through the exchange rate policy, countries can influence their economies, i.e. price stability and export competiveness. Croatia is a new EU member state, it has its own monetary policy and currency but it is on the way to euro introduction. Regarding the experiences from the beginning of the 1990s when Croatia was faced with serious monetary instabilities and hyperinflation, the goal of Croatian National Bank (CNB is to ensure price stability and one way to do so is through exchange rate policy. Croatia, as a small and open economy, has applied a managed floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is determined primarily by the foreign exchange supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, with occasional market interventions by the CNB. Therefore, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, policymakers must be able to recognize how changes in these factors affect changes in the exchange rate. This research aims to find a relationship among the main sources of foreign currency inflow and outflow and the level of exchange rate in Croatia. The analysis is carried out by using the bounds testing (ARDL approach for co-integration. The results indicate the existence of a stable co-integration relationship between the observed variables, whereby an increase in the majority of variables leads to an exchange rate appreciation.

  10. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a primary tropical peat swamp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang Che Ing, A.; Stoy, P. C.; Melling, L.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical peat swamp forests are widely recognized as one of the world's most efficient ecosystems for the sequestration and storage of carbon through both their aboveground biomass and underlying thick deposits of peat. As the peat characteristics exhibit high spatial and temporal variability as well as the structural and functional complexity of forests, tropical peat ecosystems can act naturally as both carbon sinks and sources over their life cycles. Nonetheless, few reports of studies on the ecosystem-scale CO2 exchange of tropical peat swamp forests are available to-date and their present roles in the global carbon cycle remain uncertain. To quantify CO2 exchange and unravel the prevailing factors and potential underlying mechanism regulating net CO2 fluxes, an eddy covariance tower was erected in a tropical peat swamp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. We observed that the diurnal and seasonal patterns of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and its components (gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE)) varied between seasons and years. Rates of NEE declined in the wet season relative to the dry season. Conversely, both the gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) were found to be higher during the wet season than the dry season, in which GPP was strongly negatively correlated with NEE. The average annual NEE was 385 ± 74 g C m-2 yr-1, indicating the primary peat swamp forest functioned as net source of CO2 to the atmosphere over the observation period.

  11. Hysteresis response of daytime net ecosystem exchange during drought

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    N. Pingintha

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Continuous measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE using the eddy-covariance method were made over an agricultural ecosystem in the southeastern US. During optimum environmental conditions, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR was the primary driver controlling daytime NEE, accounting for as much as 67 to 89% of the variation in NEE. However, soil water content became the dominant factor limiting the NEE-PAR response during the peak growth stage. NEE was significantly depressed when high PAR values coincided with very low soil water content. The presence of a counter-clockwise hysteresis of daytime NEE with PAR was observed during periods of water stress. This is a result of the stomatal closure control of photosynthesis at high vapor pressure deficit and enhanced respiration at high temperature. This result is significant since this hysteresis effect limits the range of applicability of the Michaelis-Menten equation and other related expressions in the determination of daytime NEE as a function of PAR. The systematic presence of hysteresis in the response of NEE to PAR suggests that the gap-filling technique based on a non-linear regression approach should take into account the presence of water-limited field conditions. Including this step is therefore likely to improve current evaluation of ecosystem response to increased precipitation variability arising from climatic changes.

  12. Seven years of recent European net terrestrial carbon dioxide exchange constrained by atmospheric observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, W.; Krol, M. C.; van der Werf, G. R.; Houweling, S.; Jones, C. D.; Hughes, J.; Schaefer, K.; Masarie, K. A.; Jacobson, A. R.; Miller, J. B.; Cho, C. H.; Ramonet, M.; Schmidt, M.; Ciattaglia, L.; Apadula, F.; Heltai, D.; Meinhardt, F.; di Sarra, A. G.; Piacentino, S.; Sferlazzo, D.; Aalto, T.; Hatakka, J.; StröM, J.; Haszpra, L.; Meijer, H. A J; van Der Laan, S.; Neubert, R. E M; Jordan, A.; Rodó, X.; Morguí, J. A.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Popa, Maria Elena; Rozanski, K.; Zimnoch, M.; Manning, A. C.; Leuenberger, M.; Uglietti, C.; Dolman, A. J.; Ciais, P.; Heimann, M.; Tans, P.

    2010-01-01

    We present an estimate of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in Europe for the years 2001-2007. It is derived with a data assimilation that uses a large set of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction observations (∼70 000) to guide relatively simple descriptions of terrestrial and oceanic net exchange, while

  13. Seven years of recent European net terrestrial carbon dioxide exchange constrained by atmospheric observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, W.; Krol, M.C.; Werf, van der G.R.; Houweling, S.; Jones, C.D.; Hughes, J.; Schaefer, K.; Masarie, K.A.

    2010-01-01

    We present an estimate of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in Europe for the years 2001–2007. It is derived with a data assimilation that uses a large set of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction observations (~70 000) to guide relatively simple descriptions of terrestrial and oceanic net exchange, while

  14. Sparseness and Roughness of Foreign Exchange Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewalle, N.; Ausloos, M.

    An accurate multiaffine analysis of 23 foreign currency exchange rates has been performed. The roughness exponent H1 which characterizes the excursion of the exchange rate has been numerically measured. The degree of intermittency C1 has been also estimated. In the (H1,C1) phase diagram, the currency exchange rates are dispersed in a wide region around the Brownian motion value (H1=0.5,C1=0) and have a significantly intermittent component (C1≠0).

  15. A new assessment of floating exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Waimann, D. R.

    1981-01-01

    The switch to floating exchange rates during the 1970s has given economists the first comprehensive opportunity to assess the arguments for and against floating. Much new work has been done on various aspects of floating exchange rate behaviour. This article attempts a limited survey of the evidence concerning two important issues—whether floating exchange rates are inherently unstable and whether they harm international trade.

  16. China; Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Tao Wang

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the evolution of China's real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period. The paper also finds that supply shocks are as important ...

  17. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  18. Exchange Rate and the PRC Foreign Trade

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    Izotov D. A.

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The stages of exchange rate regulation and foreign trade systems reforming in PRC during the period 1978-2008 are examined. A quantitative assessment of PRC foreign trade parameters reactions to the currency rate dynamics on the national and regional levels is made. Also the import and export impact of potential exchange rate changes is estimated

  19. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Rossi; Daniel Leigh

    2002-01-01

    In light of the strong correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic prices in Turkey, it is important to assess the impact of the exchange rate on domestic prices, in particular as Turkey moves to an inflation targeting regime. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression model to investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on prices in Turkey. We find that (i) the impact of the exchange rate on prices is over after about a year, but is mostly felt in the first four mon...

  20. Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

    2010-01-01

    Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

  1. Interest Rate Rules, Exchange Market Pressure, and Successful Exchange Rate Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.; Mavromatis, K.

    2016-01-01

    Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call ''pressure.'' Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the

  2. Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?

    OpenAIRE

    Simwaka, Kisu

    2010-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime has been a subject of ongoing debate in international economics. The majority of African countries are small open economies and thus where the choice of the exchange rate regime is an important policy issue. Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and ...

  3. Eddy covariance measurements of net C exchange in the CAM bioenergy crop, Agave tequiliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Nick A.; Choncubhair, Órlaith Ní; Males, Jamie; del Real Laborde, José Ignacio; Rubio-Cortés, Ramón; Griffiths, Howard; Lanigan, Gary

    2016-04-01

    Bioenergy crop cultivation may focus more on low grade and marginal lands in order to avoid competition with food production for land and water resources. However, in many regions, this would require improvements in plant water-use efficiency that are beyond the physiological capacity of most C3 and C4 bioenergy crop candidates. Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants, such as Agave tequiliana, can combine high above-ground productivity with as little as 20% of the water demand of C3 and C4 crops. This is achieved through temporal separation of carboxylase activities, with stomata opening at night to allow gas exchange and minimise transpirational losses. Previous studies have employed 'bottom-up' methodologies to investigate carbon (C) accumulation and productivity in Agave, by scaling leaf-level gas exchange and titratable acidity (TA) with leaf area index or maximum productivity. We used the eddy covariance (EC) technique to quantify ecosystem-scale gas exchange over an Agave plantation in Mexico ('top-down' approach). Measurements were made over 252 days, including the transition from wet to dry periods. Results were cross-validated against diel changes in titratable acidity, leaf-unfurling rates, energy exchange fluxes and reported biomass yields. Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 displayed a CAM rhythm that alternated from a net C sink at night to a net C source during the day and partitioned canopy fluxes (gross C assimilation, FA,EC) showed a characteristic four-phase CO2 exchange pattern. The projected ecosystem C balance indicated that the site was a net sink of -333 ± 24 g C m-2 y-1, comprising cumulative soil respiration of 692 ± 7 g C m-2 y-1 and FA,EC of -1025 ± 25 g C m-2 y-1. EC-estimated biomass yield was 20.1 Mg ha-1 y-1. Average integrated daily FA,EC was -234 ± 5 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1 and persisted almost unchanged after 70 days of drought conditions. Our results suggest that the carbon acquisition strategy of drought avoidance employed by Agave

  4. The tail index of exchange rate returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); M. Schafgans (Marcia); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractIn the literature on the empirical distribution of foreign exchange rates there is now consensus that exchange rate yields are fat-tailed. Three problems, however, persist: (1) Which class of distribution functions is most appropriate? (2) Are the parameters of the distribution invariant

  5. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy); A. Markiewicz (Agnieszka); R. Verhoeks (Ralph); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a theoretical framework of exchange rate behavior where investors focus on a subset of economic fundamentals. We find that any adjustment in the set of predictors used by investors leads to changes in the relation between the exchange rate and fundamentals. We test the

  6. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kouwenberg, R.; Markiewicz, A.; Verhoeks, R.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

    2017-01-01

    Exchange rate models with uncertain and incomplete information predict that investors focus on a small set of fundamentals that changes frequently over time. We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample tests show

  7. The Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure of Nations

    OpenAIRE

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984), we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  8. Similar net ecosystem exchange of beech stands located in France and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Granier, A.; Pilegaard, K.; Jensen, N.O.

    2002-01-01

    Net ecosystem exchange (NEE), as measured with eddy covariance was compared for two European beech stands for the years 1996-1999: a young beech forest (32 year-old) growing in east France, and a mature beech stand (80 year-old) located in Denmark. Those sites are included in the Carboeuroflux....../Carbodata European networks. Except for some short-term differences (1-5 days), the temporal variation of NEE followed similar patterns in both sites. This similarity followed from similar values of. (i) dates of bud break and of leaf fall; (ii) ecosystem respiration rates during winter; (iii) diurnal NEE during...

  9. Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ribnikar

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

  10. Net savings and the Japanese long-term interest rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, P.W.

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses why the interest rate on Japanese government bonds is so low in comparison with other industrialized countries with a better credit rating, after correcting for inflation differences. We find that the net savings surplus has kept the long-term interest rate low. Japanese

  11. Is a more stable exchange rate associated with reduced exchange rate pass-through?

    OpenAIRE

    Mark J. Holmes

    2007-01-01

    Pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices is modelled within a regime-switching environment. Evidence suggests that exchange rate pass through can be characterised as regime-specific where the probability of switching between regimes is influenced by the extent of exchange rate volatility.

  12. Modeling Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Salazar

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR model, provide evidence of error-increasing behavior in prices and interest rates, which is consistent with the persistence observed in the data. The movements in the real exchange rate are compensated by movements in the interest rate spread, which restores the equilibrium in the product market when the real exchange rate moves away from its long-run benchmark value. Fluctuations in the copper price also explain the deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium value.

  13. Exchange rate policy and devaluation in Malawi:

    OpenAIRE

    Pauw, Karl; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mazunda, John

    2013-01-01

    This study demonstrates why devaluation was ultimately necessary in Malawi and also what its eventual impact might be in terms of prices, income distribution, and domestic production. Our approach is to use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the economywide impacts of foreign exchange shortages in Malawi under two alternative exchange rate regimes. The foreign exchange shortages are modeled by simulating the effect of actual shocks, including tobacco price declines and r...

  14. Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjong Wang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.

  15. Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Flexibility Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2001-01-01

    Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents to that view suggest that countries move to corner solutions--hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed doing so. We find that countries that say th...

  16. The foreign exchange rate rate exposure of nations

    OpenAIRE

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984) we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  17. MONETARY MODELS AND EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Power Party [PPP] based on the law of one price asserts that the change in the exchange rate between .... exchange in international economic transactions has made it vitally evident that the management of ... One lesson from this episode is to ...

  18. Apparent exchange rate imaging in anisotropic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Lundell, Henrik M; Søgaard, Lise V

    2014-01-01

    Double-wave diffusion experiments offer the possibility of probing correlation between molecular diffusion at multiple time points. It has recently been shown that this technique is capable of measuring the exchange of water across cellular membranes. The aim of this study was to investigate...... the effect of macroscopic tissue anisotropy on the measurement of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) in multicompartment systems....

  19. NACP North American 8-km Net Ecosystem Exchange and Component Fluxes, 2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides modeled carbon flux estimates at 8-km spatial resolution over North America for the year 2004 of (1) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of...

  20. NACP North American 8-km Net Ecosystem Exchange and Component Fluxes, 2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides modeled carbon flux estimates at 8-km spatial resolution over North America for the year 2004 of (1) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon...

  1. The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Malagasy Franc; Estimation and Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    John Cady

    2003-01-01

    Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar's real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is developed to assess the degree of misalignment. The general conclusions are that the Malagasy franc has experienced significant misalignment in the past, but...

  2. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    economic management and therefore an important macroeconomic indicator used in assessing the ..... Adeolu, O. A. and Babatunde, W. A. (2005), “Trade and Exchange Rate ... Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Tests for.

  3. International trade and exchange rate volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M.A. Viaene (Jean-Marie); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractFor currencies with well developed forward markets several papers have investigated the conjectured negative relationship between trade and short term exchange rate volatility, without being very successful. A theoretical explanation for the empirical anomalies is provided by solving

  4. Labour Demand and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Udo Broll; Sabine Hansen

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess under what conditions exchange rate volatility exerts a positive effect on a firm's labour demand. As the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the export option provided the firm under study is flexible. Flexibility is important because it gives the firm option value. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade and may increase the demand for labour. This may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the ef...

  5. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....

  6. A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth W Clements; Yihui Lan

    2006-01-01

    Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon....

  7. Seven years of recent European net terrestrial carbon dioxide exchange constrained by atmospheric observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, W.; Krol, M; van der Werf, G. R.; Houweling, S.; Jones, C. D.; Hughes, J.; Schaefer, K.; Masarie, K. A.; Jacobson, A. R.; Miller, J. B.; Cho, C. H.; Ramonet, M.; Schmidt, M.; Ciattaglia, L.; Apadula, F.; Helta, D.; Meinhardt, F.; di Sarra, A. G.; Piacentino, S.; Sferlazzo, D.; Aalto, T.; Hatakka, J.; Strom, J.; Haszpra, L.; Meijer, H. A. J.; van der Laan, S.; Neubert, R. E. M.; Jordan, A.; Rodo, X.; Morgui, J. -A.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Popa, E.; Rozanski, K.; Zimnoch, M.; Manning, A. C.; Leuenberger, M.; Uglietti, C.; Dolman, A. J.; Ciais, P.; Heimann, M.; Tans, P. P.; Heltai, D.; Ström, J.

    We present an estimate of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO(2) in Europe for the years 2001-2007. It is derived with a data assimilation that uses a large set of atmospheric CO(2) mole fraction observations (similar to 70 000) to guide relatively simple descriptions of terrestrial and oceanic net

  8. Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility

    OpenAIRE

    Calvo, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos

    1991-01-01

    This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout...

  9. DOES CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AFFECT EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hisao Kumamoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of the degree of currency substitution on nominal exchange rate volatility in seven countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, and Peru. We use the Threshold ARCH model to consider the ratchet effect of currency substitution and sample periods in the 2000s, during which time the economies of the sample countries stabilized, while the U.S. dollar and euro depreciated against other major currencies following the recent global financial crisis. The presented empirical analyses show that the degree of currency substitution has significant positive effects on the conditional variance of the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate in most sample countries. Moreover, a shock to the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate has asymmetric effects on the conditional variance, depending on the sign. One possible explanation for these differential effects is the existence of the ratchet effect of currency substitution.

  10. Rates of convergence of Brezier net over triangles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yuyu.

    1986-12-01

    It is well known (Farin, 1979) that the sequence of Bezier nets f-circumflex n (x) associated with Bernstein-Bezier surface over a triangle converges to the surface uniformly as n goes to infinity. In this paper the precise rates of convergence are given. The pointwise convergence result and saturation theorem are presented. (author). 7 refs

  11. Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System versus Floating Exchange Rate System

    OpenAIRE

    Geza, Paula; Giurca Vasilescu, Laura

    2011-01-01

    One of the most important issues of monetary policy is to find out whether the state should intervene among the exchange rates, taking into account the fact that changes in the exchange rates represent a significant transmission channel of the effects generated by the monetary policy. Taking into consideration the failure of fixed exchange rate regimes and the recent improvement of financial markets, the return in the near future to such a regime – as for example the Bretton Woods system –...

  12. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange over a larch forest in Hokkaido, Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huimin Wang; Saigusa, Nobuko; Yamamoto, Susumu; Kondo, Hiroaki; Hirano, Takashi; Toriyama, Atsushi; Fujinuma, Yasumi

    2004-01-01

    Larch forests are distributed extensively in the east Eurasian continent and are expected to play a significant role in the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling process. In view of the fact that studies on carbon exchange for this important biome have been very limited, we have initiated a long-term flux observation in a larch forest ecosystem in Hokkaido in northern Japan since 2000. The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) showed large seasonal and diurnal variation. Generally, the larch forest ecosystem released CO 2 in nighttime and assimilated CO 2 in daytime during the growing season from May to October. The ecosystem started to become a net carbon sink in May, reaching a maximum carbon uptake as high as 186 g C m -2 month -1 in June. With the yellowing, senescing and leaf fall, the ecosystem turned into a carbon source in November. During the non-growing season, the larch forest ecosystem became a net source of CO 2 , releasing an average of 16.7 g C m -2 month -1 . Overall, the ecosystem sequestered 141-240 g C m -2 yr -1 in 2001. The NEE was significantly influenced by environmental factors. Respiration of the ecosystem, for example, was exponentially dependent on air temperature, while photosynthesis was related to the incident PAR in a manner consistent with the Michaelis-Menten model. Although the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was scarcely higher than 15 hPa, the CO 2 uptake rate was also depressed when VPD surpassed 10 hPa (Author)

  13. The Economics of Zero-Rating and Net Neutrality

    OpenAIRE

    Somogyi, Robert

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies zero-rating, an emerging business practice consisting in a mobile internet service provider (ISP) excluding the data generated by certain content providers (CPs) from its consumers' monthly data cap. Being at odds with the principle of net neutrality, these arrangements have recently attracted regulatory scrutiny all over the word. I analyze zero-rating incentives of a monopolistic ISP facing a capacity constraint in a two-sided market where consumption provides utility for...

  14. Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueira, José Roberto C.; Mortoza, Letícia Pelluci D.

    2012-04-01

    With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the López-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns.

  15. Visibility graph approach to exchange rate series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yue; Wang, Jianbo; Yang, Huijie; Mang, Jingshi

    2009-10-01

    By means of a visibility graph, we investigate six important exchange rate series. It is found that the series convert into scale-free and hierarchically structured networks. The relationship between the scaling exponents of the degree distributions and the Hurst exponents obeys the analytical prediction for fractal Brownian motions. The visibility graph can be used to obtain reliable values of Hurst exponents of the series. The characteristics are explained by using the multifractal structures of the series. The exchange rate of EURO to Japanese Yen is widely used to evaluate risk and to estimate trends in speculative investments. Interestingly, the hierarchies of the visibility graphs for the exchange rate series of these two currencies are significantly weak compared with that of the other series.

  16. Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to previous experiences, the current arrangement has important flaws that should be addressed. We discuss how it first led to high volatility and extremely high interest rates, which, when overcome, gave way to a long lasting appreciation of the real exchange rate with adverse consequences to industry.

  17. Conversion of a moderately rewetted fen to a shallow lake - implications for net CO2 exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koebsch, Franziska; Glatzel, Stephan; Hofmann, Joachim; Forbrich, Inke; Jurasinski, Gerald

    2013-04-01

    Extensive rewetting projects to re-establish the natural carbon (C) sequestration function of degraded peatlands are currently taking place in Europe and North-America. Year-round flooding provides a robust measure to prevent periods of drought that are associated with ongoing peat mineralization and to initiate the accumulation of new organic matter. Here, we present measurements of net carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange during the gradual conversion of a moderately rewetted fen to a shallow lake. When we started our measurements in 2009, mean growing season water level (MWGL) was 0 cm. In 2010 the site was flooded throughout the year with MWGL of 36 cm. Extraordinary strong rainfalls in July 2011 resulted in a further increase of MWGL to 56 cm. Measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were conducted during growing seasons (May-October) using the Eddy Covariance method. Information about vegetation vitality was deduced from the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) based on MODIS data. Ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were high during vegetation period 2009 (1273.4 and -1572.1 g CO2-C m-2), but decreased by 61 and 46% respectively when the fen was flooded throughout 2010. Under water-logged conditions, heterotrophic respiration declines and gas exchange is limited. Moreover, flooding is a severe stress factor for plants and decreases autotrophic respiration and photosynthesis. However, in comparison to 2010, rates of Reco and GEP doubled during the beginning of growing season 2011, indicating plastic response strategies of wetland plants to flooding. Presumably, plants were not able to cope with the further increase of water levels to up to 120 cm in June/July 2011, resulting in another drop of GEP and Reco. The effects of plant vitality on GEP were confirmed by the remote sensed vegetation index. Throughout all three growing seasons, the fen was a distinct net CO2 sink (2009: -333.3±12.3, 2010: -294.1±8.4, -352.4±5.1 g CO2-C m-2

  18. The influence of interest rates on the exchange rate and exchange rate volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Florin MAVRIS; Dumitru-Cristian OANEA

    2014-01-01

    The dynamic of interest rates has been the subject of attention by both traders and researchers. We see in what manner different factors that depend on the actions of central banks that influence them by using a GARCH type model and we compare its performance with other models to see what approach explains and predicts the movement of the exchange rate. To better understand the type of model that is applicable the data is tested for heteroskedasticity, and only after that the model is impleme...

  19. Multivariable nonlinear analysis of foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Tomoya; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Suzuki, Masuo

    2003-05-01

    We analyze the multivariable time series of foreign exchange rates. These are price movements that have often been analyzed, and dealing time intervals and spreads between bid and ask prices. Considering dealing time intervals as event timing such as neurons’ firings, we use raster plots (RPs) and peri-stimulus time histograms (PSTHs) which are popular methods in the field of neurophysiology. Introducing special processings to obtaining RPs and PSTHs time histograms for analyzing exchange rates time series, we discover that there exists dynamical interaction among three variables. We also find that adopting multivariables leads to improvements of prediction accuracy.

  20. Chartist Trading in Exchange Rate Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Selander, Carina

    2006-01-01

    This thesis consists of four papers, of which paper 1 and 4 are co-written with Mikael Bask. Paper [1] implements chartists trading in a sticky-price monetary model for determining the exchange rate. It is demonstrated that chartists cause the exchange rate to "overshoot the overshooting equilibrium" of a sticky-price monetary model. Chartists base their trading on a short-long moving average. The importance of technical trading depends inversely on the time horizon in currency trade. The exc...

  1. Exchange rate arrangements: From extreme to "normal"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs crawling pegs and target zones and imperative-process "normalization" in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate "fear of floating" and "fear of pegging". The "impossible trinity" under the conditions of capital liberalization and globalization creates a bipolar view or hypothesis of vanishing intermediate exchange rate regimes.

  2. Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...

  3. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach...

  4. Apparent exchange rate for breast cancer characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasič, Samo; Oredsson, Stina; Partridge, Savannah C; Saal, Lao H; Topgaard, Daniel; Nilsson, Markus; Bryskhe, Karin

    2016-05-01

    Although diffusion MRI has shown promise for the characterization of breast cancer, it has low specificity to malignant subtypes. Higher specificity might be achieved if the effects of cell morphology and molecular exchange across cell membranes could be disentangled. The quantification of exchange might thus allow the differentiation of different types of breast cancer cells. Based on differences in diffusion rates between the intra- and extracellular compartments, filter exchange spectroscopy/imaging (FEXSY/FEXI) provides non-invasive quantification of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) of water between the two compartments. To test the feasibility of FEXSY for the differentiation of different breast cancer cells, we performed experiments on several breast epithelial cell lines in vitro. Furthermore, we performed the first in vivo FEXI measurement of water exchange in human breast. In cell suspensions, pulsed gradient spin-echo experiments with large b values and variable pulse duration allow the characterization of the intracellular compartment, whereas FEXSY provides a quantification of AXR. These experiments are very sensitive to the physiological state of cells and can be used to establish reliable protocols for the culture and harvesting of cells. Our results suggest that different breast cancer subtypes can be distinguished on the basis of their AXR values in cell suspensions. Time-resolved measurements allow the monitoring of the physiological state of cells in suspensions over the time-scale of hours, and reveal an abrupt disintegration of the intracellular compartment. In vivo, exchange can be detected in a tumor, whereas, in normal tissue, the exchange rate is outside the range experimentally accessible for FEXI. At present, low signal-to-noise ratio and limited scan time allows the quantification of AXR only in a region of interest of relatively large tumors. © 2016 The Authors. NMR in Biomedicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Vinhas de Souza

    2002-01-01

    textabstractHere the author empirically estimates if the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author

  6. Partitioning inter annual variability in net ecosystem exchange between climatic variability and functional change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hui, D.; Luo, Y.; Katul, G.

    2003-01-01

    Inter annual variability in net ecosystem exchange of carbon is investigated using a homogeneity-of-slopes model to identify the function change contributing to inter annual variability, net ecosystem carbon exchange, and night-time ecosystem respiration. Results of employing this statistical approach to a data set collected at the Duke Forest AmeriFlux site from August 1997 to December 2001 are discussed. The results demonstrate that it is feasible to partition the variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes into direct effects of seasonal and inter annual climatic variability and functional change. 51 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  7. An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Helge Berger; Jan-Egbert Sturm; Jakob de Haan

    2000-01-01

    We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target c ountries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of exchange rate regime choice. Surprisingly, a more volatile foreign economy can be an argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime once similarities in the business cycle are taken into accou...

  8. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Southern African Business Review ... This finding is inconsistent with the monetary model of exchange rate determination, which asserts that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate ... Key words: Exchange rates, monetary model, autoregressive distributed lag, cointegration, exchange rate overshooting ...

  9. What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory P. Hopper

    1997-01-01

    Do economic factors influence exchange rates? Or does market sentiment play a bigger role? Are short-run exchange rates predictable? Greg Hopper reviews exchange-rate economics, focusing on what is predictable and what isn't. He also examines the practical implications of exchange-rate theories for currency option pricing, risk management, and portfolio selection.

  10. Net reclassification index at event rate: properties and relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; D'Agostino, Ralph B

    2017-12-10

    The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an attractively simple summary measure quantifying improvement in performance because of addition of new risk marker(s) to a prediction model. Originally proposed for settings with well-established classification thresholds, it quickly extended into applications with no thresholds in common use. Here we aim to explore properties of the NRI at event rate. We express this NRI as a difference in performance measures for the new versus old model and show that the quantity underlying this difference is related to several global as well as decision analytic measures of model performance. It maximizes the relative utility (standardized net benefit) across all classification thresholds and can be viewed as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the distributions of risk among events and non-events. It can be expressed as a special case of the continuous NRI, measuring reclassification from the 'null' model with no predictors. It is also a criterion based on the value of information and quantifies the reduction in expected regret for a given regret function, casting the NRI at event rate as a measure of incremental reduction in expected regret. More generally, we find it informative to present plots of standardized net benefit/relative utility for the new versus old model across the domain of classification thresholds. Then, these plots can be summarized with their maximum values, and the increment in model performance can be described by the NRI at event rate. We provide theoretical examples and a clinical application on the evaluation of prognostic biomarkers for atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Recurrence plots of exchange rates of currencies

    OpenAIRE

    Sparavigna, Amelia Carolina

    2014-01-01

    Used to investigate the presence of distinctive recurrent behaviours in natural processes, the recurrence plots can be applied to the analysis of economic data, and, in particular, to the characterization of exchange rates of currencies too. In this paper, we will show that these plots are able to characterize the periods of oscillation and random walk of currencies and enhance their reply to news and events, by means of texture transitions. The examples of recurrence plots given here are obt...

  12. Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Rime, Dagfinn; Sucarrat, Genaro

    2007-01-01

    We study the role played by geographic and bank-size heterogeneity in the relation between exchange rate variability and market activity. We find some support for the hypothesis that increases in short-term global interbank market activity, which can be interpreted as due to variation in information arrival, increase variability. However, our results do not suggest that local short-term activity increases variability. With respect to long-term market activity, which can be interpreted as a me...

  13. Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on net primary productivity and net carbon exchange of China’s forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Ren; Hanqin Tian; Bo Tao; Art Chappelka; Ge Sun; et al

    2011-01-01

    Aim We investigated how ozone pollution and climate change/variability have interactively affected net primary productivity (NPP) and net carbon exchange (NCE) across China’s forest ecosystem in the past half century. Location Continental China. Methods Using the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) in conjunction with 10-km-resolution gridded historical data sets (...

  14. The effects of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange volatility on exports

    OpenAIRE

    Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses panel data cointegration techniques to study the impacts of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility on total exports for a panel of 42 developing countries from 1975 to 2004. The results show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. The results also illustrate that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on s...

  15. Stochastic Simulation of the Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria ALDEA

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The rational expectations paradigm, that dominates macroeconomicsfails to take into account the complexity of the information, which is so vast that the individual brain cannot understand the full of it. The agents are boundedly rational,so they use simple forecasting rules that do not incorporate all available information, but they are willing to learn and will switch to other rules if it turns out that these rules are more profitable than the rule they have been using. Such trial and error learning strategies create the dynamics in the foreign exchange market, with two types of equilibria, a fundamental and a non-fundamental equilibrium to which the exchange rate is attracted.

  16. Estimation of net ecosystem carbon exchange for the conterminous United States by combining MODIS and AmeriFlux data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jingfeng Xiao; Qianlai Zhuang; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Beverly E. Law; Andrew D. Richardson; Jiquan Chen; Ram Oren; Gegory Starr; Asko Noormets; Siyan Ma; Sashi B. Verma; Sonia Wharton; Steven C. Wofsy; Paul V. Bolstad; Sean P. Burns; David R. Cook; Peter S. Curtis; Bert G. Drake; Matthias Falk; MArc L. Fischer; David R. Foster; Lianhong Gu; Julian L. Hadley; David Y. Hollinger; Gabriel G. Katul; Marcy Litvak; Timothy Martin; Roser Matamala; Steve McNulty; Tilden P. Meyers; Russell K. Monson; J. William Munger; Walter C. Oechel; Kyaw Tha Paw U; Hans Peter Schmid; Russell L. Scott; Ge Sun; Andrew E. Suyker; Margaret S. Torn

    2008-01-01

    Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents,...

  17. 14 CFR 65.43 - Rating privileges and exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Rating privileges and exchange. 65.43... § 65.43 Rating privileges and exchange. (a) The holder of a senior rating on August 31, 1970, may at any time after that date exchange his rating for a facility rating at the same air traffic control...

  18. 38 CFR 3.32 - Exchange rates for foreign currencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Exchange rates for foreign currencies. When determining the rates of pension or parents' DIC or the amounts... parents' DIC. (1) Because exchange rates for foreign currencies cannot be determined in advance, rates of... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exchange rates for...

  19. The effect of net foreign assets on saving rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben David Nissim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Observing empirical data we find that many countries try to delay the decision of increasing saving rate in order to avoid a decrease of the living standards. However the delay leads a deterioration of countries financial stability. We present a simple theoretical model that connects between countries' saving rate and their net foreign assets. Using cross section data set of 135 countries in 2010 we estimated the econometric relation between saving rate in 2010 as dependent variable and two explanatory variables: the current account in 2010 and the aggregated current account during 1980-2010. Our findings show that industrial countries in a bad financial state tend to decrease their saving rate as external debt is larger causing to deterioration in external debt while countries with good financial state tend to increase their saving rate and the tendency increase as financial state becomes better. Only in countries with a very large external debt saving rate tends to grow. The results point that gross foreign debt will keep increasing and will worsen world financial state causing increased risk of getting into a world crisis.

  20. Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Renduo; Cescatti, Alessandro; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Buchmann, Nina; Zhu, Juan; Chen, Guanhong; Moyano, Fernando; Pumpanen, Jukka; Hirano, Takashi; Takagi, Kentaro; Merbold, Lutz

    2017-06-08

    The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10 , defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) rates with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG ) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR ). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO 2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. In addition, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO 2 with climate warming.

  1. Net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and water of far eastern Siberian Larch (Larix cajanderii on permafrost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Dolman

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Observations of the net ecosystem exchange of water and CO2 were made during two seasons in 2000 and 2001 above a Larch forest in Far East Siberia (Yakutsk. The measurements were obtained by eddy correlation. There is a very sharply pronounced growing season of 100 days when the forest is leaved. Maximum half hourly uptake rates are 18 µmol m-2 s-1; maximum respiration rates are 5 µmol m-2 s-1. Net annual sequestration of carbon was estimated at 160 gCm-2 in 2001. Applying no correction for low friction velocities added 60 g C m-2. The net carbon exchange of the forest was extremely sensitive to small changes in weather that may switch the forest easily from a sink to a source, even in summer. June was the month with highest uptake in 2001. The average evaporation rate of the forest approached 1.46 mm day-1 during the growing season, with peak values of 3 mm day-1 with an estimated annual evaporation of 213 mm, closely approaching the average annual rainfall amount. 2001 was a drier year than 2000 and this is reflected in lower evaporation rates in 2001 than in 2000. The surface conductance of the forest shows a marked response to increasing atmospheric humidity deficits. This affects the CO2 uptake and evaporation in a different manner, with the CO2 uptake being more affected. There appears to be no change in the relation between surface conductance and net ecosystem uptake normalized by the atmospheric humidity deficit at the monthly time scale. The response to atmospheric humidity deficit is an efficient mechanism to prevent severe water loss during the short intense growing season. The associated cost to the sequestration of carbon may be another explanation for the slow growth of these forests in this environment.

  2. A Constructed Freshwater Wetland Shows Signs of Declining Net Ecosystem Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, F. E.; Bergamaschi, B. A.; Windham-Myers, L.; Byrd, K. B.; Drexler, J. Z.; Fujii, R.

    2014-12-01

    The USGS constructed a freshwater-wetland complex on Twitchell Island in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), California, USA, in 1997 and maintained it until 2012 to investigate strategies for biomass accretion and reduction of oxidative soil loss. We studied an area of the wetland complex covered mainly by dense patches of hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus) and cattails (Typha spp.), with smaller areas of floating and submerged vegetation, that was maintained at an average depth of 55 cm. Using eddy covariance measurements of carbon and energy fluxes, we found that the combination of water management and the region's Mediterranean climate created conditions where peak growing season daily means of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) reached -45 gCO2 m-2 d-1 and averaged around -30 gCO2 m-2 d-1 between 2002 through 2004. However, when measurements resumed in 2010, NEE rates were a fraction of the rates previously measured, approximately -6 gCO2 m-2 d-1. Interestingly, NEE rates in 2011 doubled compared to 2010 (-13 gCO2 m-2 d-1). Methane fluxes, collected in 2010 to assess a complete atmospheric carbon budget, were positive throughout the year, with daily mean flux values ranging from 50 to 300 mg CH4 m-2 d-1. As a result, methane flux reduced NEE values by approximately one-third, and when the global warming potential was considered, the wetland became a net global warming potential source. We found that carbon cycling in a constructed wetland is complex and can change over annual and decadal timescales. We investigated possible reasons for differences between flux measurements from 2002 to 2004 and those from 2010 and 2011: (1) changes in methodology, (2) differences in weather conditions, (3) differences in gross primary productivity relative to respiration rates, and (4) the amount of living plant tissue relative to brown accumulations of senesced plant litter. We hypothesize that large mats of senesced material within the flux footprint could have

  3. Exchange Rate Volatility and Investment: A Panel Data Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahima Amadou DIALLO

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the link between real exchange rate volatility and domestic investment by using panel data cointegration techniques. We study the empirical connection between real effective exchange rate volatility and investment for 51 developing countries (23 low-income and 28 middle-income countries. The theoretical relationship between investment and real exchange rate volatility predicts that the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on profits are ambiguous. The empirical results illustrate that real effective exchange rate volatility has a strong negative impact on investment. This outcome is robust in low income and middle income countries, and by using an alternative measurement of exchange rate volatility.

  4. Complexity, rate of energy exchanges and stochasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casartelli, M.; Sello, S.

    1987-01-01

    The complexity of trajectories in the phase of anharmonic crystal (mostly a Lennard-Jones chain) is analysed by the variance of microcanonical density and by new parameters P and chi defined, respectively, as the mean value of the time averages and the relative variance of the absolute exchange rate of energies among the normal modes. Evidence is given to the trapping action of residual invariant surfaces in low stochastic regime of motion. The parameter chi, moreover, proves efficient in exploring the border of stochasticity. A simple power law for P vs. the specific energy is obtained and proved to be independent of stochasticity and of the type of anharmonic potential

  5. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Sang-Yong Joo; Chae-Shick Chung; Young-Woo Lee

    1999-01-01

    This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the ma...

  6. Effect on phloridzin on net rate of liquid absorption from the pleural space of rabbits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zocchi, L; Agostoni, E; Raffaini, A

    1996-11-01

    Previous indirect findings have suggested the occurrence of solute-coupled liquid absorption from the pleural space, consistent with Na(+)-K(+)-ATPase on the interstitial side plus a Na(+)-H+ and CI(-)-HCO3- double exchange on the luminal side of the pleural mesothelium. To assess whether Na(+)-glucose cotransport also operates on the luminal side, the relationship between net rate of liquid absorption from the right pleural space (Jnet) and volume of liquid injected into this space (0.5, 1 or 2 ml) was determined in anaesthetized rabbits during hydrothoraces with phloridzin (10(-3)M) or with phloridzin plus 4-acetamido-4'-isothiocyanatostilbene-2, 2'-disulphonic acid (SITS; 1.5 x 10(-4)M). The relationship obtained during hydrothoraces with phloridzin was displaced downwards by 0.09 ml h-1 relative to that in control hydrothoraces (P pleural mesothelium, operating simultaneously with the double exchange also under physiological conditions.

  7. Exchange-rate regimes and economic growth: An empirical evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Simón Sosvilla-Rivero; María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

    2014-01-01

    Based on a dataset of 123 economies, this paper empirically investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and economic growth. We find that growth performance is best under intermediate exchange rate regimes, while the smallest growth rates are associated with flexible exchange rates. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyze the countries by income level: even though countries that adopt intermediate exchange-rate regimes are characterized by higher economic growth,...

  8. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: The option approach

    OpenAIRE

    Franke, Günter

    1986-01-01

    Usually it is argued that an increase in exchange rate volatility reduces the volume of international trade since trading firms are risk averse. This paper shows for risk neutral firms that the expected international trade volume in standardized commodities grows with exchange rate volatility. The firms adjust their trade volume to the exchange rate level. The more favorable the exchange rate is, the higher is the export volume. If the rate drops below some level, exports are stopped. Thus in...

  9. Exchange Rate Determinants in Russia; 1992-1993

    OpenAIRE

    Vincent Koen; Eric Meyermans

    1994-01-01

    This paper examines the evolution of the exchange rate of the ruble vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar from exchange rate unification, in July 1992, to the end of 1993. The expected and actual paths of the exchange rate are related to the exchange and trade regime and to the stance of financial and exchange rate policies. An econometric analysis based on weekly data is offered, which suggests that monetary factors have a significant impact on the short run behavior of the exchange rate.

  10. Rethinking ASGISA and the rand exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem H Boshoff

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The ASGISA policy document identifies the exchange rate as one of the factors constraining accelerated growth in South Africa. This note argues that currency developments do not translate into business cycle movements in the aggregate economy, and that a weaker exchange rate is less likely to boost either foreign investment or export performance in the face of regulatory uncertainty. The South African government has recently launched the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative (ASGISA aimed at raising the long-term growth path of the economy. The plan identifies several so-called “binding constraints” that are considered to be inhibiting the economy from rising to more elevated levels of economic growth. One such “constraint”, according to the ASGISA policy document, is the “volatility and level of the currency” (Republic of South Africa, 2006. By including this issue, policymakers have signalled that fluctuations in the Rand are considered significant to broader economic fluctuations in South Africa. This research note questions such a conviction by offering evidence that currency fluctuations are not mirrored in the South African business cycle. Nonetheless, proponents may argue that a weaker Rand will stimulate particular sectors, mostly those that are export-oriented, while it will boost Foreign Direct Investment (FDI. However, this note argues further that a weaker Rand is less likely to generate sustainable improvement in either export-oriented industries or FDI in the absence of other reforms. The following sections consider these two issues in sequence.

  11. Analysis of the Chinese Exchange Rate Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngrok Cheng

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Asian Financial Crisis now is moving to a relatively stable phase, and at this time, whether Chinese RMB will depreciate is raising the concern of the outside world. If we simply consider economic factors, we will find REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate increased around 10%, where depreciation factors are lurking. However, after Vice Premier Zhu Rongji took the responsibility of economic operation and fixed the fundamental key of developing stably, many foreign departments present good impetus of development. After that, Foreign Exchange Rate Reservation increases and major focus is put on long-term operation for debt structure. On the contrary, If Chinese RMB depreciates dramatically, there will be some uneasiness towards domestic economy and also the burden of paying debt should be increased, people may suffer the loss quite a lot. Especially even we consider the responsibility as the central country in this region and the political & economical factors causing the harmonious atmosphere of Sino-American relationship, it can be predicted that Chinese RMB cannot depreciate dramatically within 1-2 years.

  12. Storage flux uncertainty impact on eddy covariance net ecosystem exchange measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolini, Giacomo; Aubinet, Marc; Feigenwinter, Christian; Heinesch, Bernard; Lindroth, Anders; Mamadou, Ossénatou; Moderow, Uta; Mölder, Meelis; Montagnani, Leonardo; Rebmann, Corinna; Papale, Dario

    2017-04-01

    Complying with several assumption and simplifications, most of the carbon budget studies based on eddy covariance (EC) measurements, quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by summing the flux obtained by EC (Fc) and the storage flux (Sc). Sc is the rate of change of CO2, within the so called control volume below the EC measurement level, given by the difference in the instantaneous profiles of concentration at the beginning and end of the EC averaging period, divided by the averaging period. While cumulating over time led to a nullification of Sc, it can be significant at short time periods. The approaches used to estimate Sc fluxes largely vary, from measurements based only on a single sampling point (usually located at the EC measurement height) to measurements based on several sampling profiles distributed within the control volume. Furthermore, the number of sampling points within each profile vary, according to their height and the ecosystem typology. It follows that measurement accuracy increases with the sampling intensity within the control volume. In this work we use the experimental dataset collected during the ADVEX campaign in which Sc flux has been measured in three similar forest sites by the use of 5 sampling profiles (towers). Our main objective is to quantify the impact of Sc measurement uncertainty on NEE estimates. Results show that different methods may produce substantially different Sc flux estimates, with problematic consequences in case high frequency (half-hourly) data are needed for the analysis. However, the uncertainty on long-term estimates may be tolerate.

  13. real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... effects of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance in Nigeria. .... main factors that impacts on real exchange rate in India .... financial assets and ignores non-economic factor such as .... and fiscal policies to control inflation.

  14. On exchange rate misalignments in the Eurozone's peripheral countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grochová, Ladislava; Plecitá, Klára

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we model equilibrium exchange rates for the Eurozone's countries on the basis of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach, which assumes, that equilibrium exchange rates are in the long run affected by economic fundamentals. To assess the degree of exchange rate misalignment for the Eurozone's peripheral countries - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - the gap between the actual and the modelled equilibrium exchange rate value is calculated. Our results show that Spain, Portugal and Ireland had their real exchange rates in equilibrium when they joined the Eurozone; however their real exchange rates have been persistently overvalued since the beginning of the 2000s. Greece, on the other hand, has experienced diminishing undervaluation at the beginning of its membership in the Eurozone and since 2009 has exhibited an overvalued real exchange rate.

  15. The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rahel

    magnitude of exchange rate volatility while the federal government exercises control of ... objectives in the area of price stability and economic growth. Volatile real ..... Exchange rate shocks and instability is a common feature of emerging.

  16. Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Dağdeviren, Sengül; Ogus Binatli, Ayla; Sohrabji, Niloufer

    2011-01-01

    The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the literature on the relation between misalignment and exchange rate regimes. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural brea...

  17. Political pressures and exchange rate stability in emerging market economies

    OpenAIRE

    Ester Faia; Massimo Giuliodori; Michele Ruta

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a political economy model of exchange rate policy. The theory is based on a common agency approach with rational expectations. Financial and exporter lobbies exert political pressures to influence the government’s choice of exchange rate policy, before shocks to the economy are realized. The model shows that political pressures affect exchange rate policy and create an over-commitment to exchange rate stability. This helps to rationalize the empirical evidence on fear of l...

  18. Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

    OpenAIRE

    Yeșin, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...

  19. The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu; Vasile Dedu

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Romania, respectively the real exchange rate consistent with the macroeconomic balance, which is achieved when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and has a current account that is sustainable (external balance). This equilibrium real exchange rate is very important for an economy because deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value can affect the competitiveness ...

  20. Examining the volatility of exchange rate: Does monetary policy matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Lim, Shu Yi; Sek, Siok Kun

    2014-01-01

    We conduct empirical analysis on examining the changes in exchange rate volatility under two monetary policy regimes, i.e. the pre- and post- inflation targeting (IT) regimes. In addition, we also investigate if the monetary decisions can have impacts on the volatility of exchange rate. The study is focused in four Asian countries that experienced drastic in the switch of monetary policy from the rigid exchange rate to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting after the Asian financial c...

  1. Overcoming Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Policies in Chile.

    OpenAIRE

    Jose De Gregorio; Andrea Tokman R.

    2004-01-01

    The paper reviews the exchange rate management experience in Chile, with particular emphasis on the floating exchange rate regime and its two forex intervention episodes. It presents evidence on Chile’s favorable conditions to face exchange rate shocks: a well-developed financial sector, that offers hedging opportunities taken up by the corporate sector to decrease its vulnerability through balance sheet effects; and a low and decreasing level of passthrough from the exchange rate to prices. ...

  2. Exchange Rate Regime in Russia, Evaluation and Recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Olga, Vasilevskaya

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies exchange rate choice in Russia with respect to social, economic and political determinants. The study deliberately narrowed the scope of the discussion to two extreme cases, i.e. fixed and floating exchange rate. Today Russia applies managed floating exchange rate arrangement and it is important to determine the direction of the further monetary policy development either towards fixed or floating exchange rate. The paper argues that the logical extension of the historical t...

  3. Exchange-Rate Unification with Black Market Leakages; Russia 1992

    OpenAIRE

    Linda S. Goldberg

    1993-01-01

    In 1992 Russia unified the multiple exchange rates that had applied to international transactions. This paper describes the multiple exchange rate system that existed in Russia prior to mid-1992 and undertakes a theoretical exploration of the effects of the exchange rate unification that took place in July 1992. The model developed here allows for leakages between official and black markets and permits flexibility of the exchange rates in both official and parallel currency markets. Within th...

  4. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Takuji Kinkyo

    2004-01-01

    The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common b...

  5. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON WHEAT TRADE WORLDWIDE

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Changyou; Kim, Mina; Koo, Won W.; Cho, Guedae; Jin, Hyun Joung

    2002-01-01

    A modified gravity-type model was employed to evaluate the effect of exchange rate volatility on wheat exports worldwide. Special attention was given to the econometric properties of the gravity model within panel framework. Short and long-term measures of exchange rate volatility were constructed and compared. Both measures of exchange rate volatility have exhibited a negative effect on world wheat trade and the long-term effect was even larger. This result implies that exchange rate volatil...

  6. A Case for Intermediate Exchange-Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Agnès Bénassy-Quéré; Véronique Salins

    2010-01-01

    Despite increasing capital mobility and the subsequent difficulty in controlling exchange rates, intermediate exchange-rate regimes have remained widespread, especially in emerging and developing economies. This piece of evidence hardly fits the "impossible Trinity" theory arguing that it becomes difficult to control the exchange rate without a "hard" device when capital flows are freed. Calvo and Reinhart (2000) have suggested several explanations for such "fear of floating": exchange rate p...

  7. Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Won-Am Park

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.

  8. Causes and Results of Exchange Rate Intervention Under Inflation Targeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bora Suslu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Under inflation targeting, central banks exchange rate interventions are discussed frequently in the economic literature recently. Effectiveness of intervention in exchange rate under inflation targeting are examined from three perspectives. These are expectations of the actors and the impact on the variance, reserve accumulation and the cost of sterilization. Since 2003 the Central Bank of Turkey has intervened exchange rate with both direct and indirect methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the results of these three aspects of the CBRT and the foreign exchange interventions. We found that by logit analysis under the inflation targeting of CBRT as a result of the intervention of exchange rate is effect expectations of economic unit and reduce of exchange rate the variance; after thes intervention the variance of exchange rate and cost of sterilization are increased. In this respect, the effectiveness of the intervention of the Central Bank exchange rate market is only reserve accumulation

  9. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The investigation covers the period between 1970 and 2005. Exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty were estimated using the GARCH model. Estimation results indicated that exchange rate ...

  10. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given

  11. Exchange rates and climate change: An application of fund

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2006-01-01

    As economic and emissions scenarios assume convergence of per capita incomes, they are sensitivity to the exchange rate used for international comparison. Particularly, developing countries are project to grow slower with a purchasing power exchange rate than with a market exchange rate. Different

  12. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are

  13. The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Nigeria | Ajao ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study recommends that the central monetary authority should institute policies that will minimize the magnitude of exchange rate volatility while the federal government exercises control of viable macroeconomic variables which have direct influence on exchange rate fluctuation. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Volatility, ...

  14. Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: the exchange rate as a shock absorber

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Audzei, Volha; Brázdik, F.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 5 (2015), s. 391-410 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : Czech Republic * exchange rates * sign restrictions Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.449, year: 2015 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1340_audzei.pdf

  15. Net carbon exchange across the Arctic tundra-boreal forest transition in Alaska 1981-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Catharine Copass; McGuire, A.D.; Clein, Joy S.; Chapin, F. S.; Beringer, J.

    2006-01-01

    Shifts in the carbon balance of high-latitude ecosystems could result from differential responses of vegetation and soil processes to changing moisture and temperature regimes and to a lengthening of the growing season. Although shrub expansion and northward movement of treeline should increase carbon inputs, the effects of these vegetation changes on net carbon exchange have not been evaluated. We selected low shrub, tall shrub, and forest tundra sites near treeline in northwestern Alaska, representing the major structural transitions expected in response to warming. In these sites, we measured aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen pools, and used these data to parameterize the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. We simulated the response of carbon balance components to air temperature and precipitation trends during 1981-2000. In areas experiencing warmer and dryer conditions, Net Primary Production (NPP) decreased and heterotrophic respiration (R H ) increased, leading to a decrease in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). In warmer and wetter conditions NPP increased, but the response was exceeded by an increase in R H ; therefore, NEP also decreased. Lastly, in colder and wetter regions, the increase in NPP exceeded a small decline in R H , leading to an increase in NEP. The net effect for the region was a slight gain in ecosystem carbon storage over the 20 year period. This research highlights the potential importance of spatial variability in ecosystem responses to climate change in assessing the response of carbon storage in northern Alaska over the last two decades. ?? Springer 2005.

  16. Long-term dependence in exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Karytinos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

  17. Triangular arbitrage as an interaction among foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiba, Yukihiro; Hatano, Naomichi; Takayasu, Hideki; Marumo, Kouhei; Shimizu, Tokiko

    2002-07-01

    We first show that there are in fact triangular arbitrage opportunities in the spot foreign exchange markets, analyzing the time dependence of the yen-dollar rate, the dollar-euro rate and the yen-euro rate. Next, we propose a model of foreign exchange rates with an interaction. The model includes effects of triangular arbitrage transactions as an interaction among three rates. The model explains the actual data of the multiple foreign exchange rates well.

  18. Impulse Response of the Exchange Rate Volatility to a Foreign Exchange Intervention Shock

    OpenAIRE

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses Lin's technique (1997) to report on the impulse response function analysis that traces the dynamics of exchange rate volatility from innovations in Japanese foreign exchange intervention. Using a multivariate GARCH model, we employed a volatility impulse response function based on Lin (1997) to detect the impulse response of exchange rate volatility on a one-unit foreign exchange intervention shock. The main findings of t his paper are as follows: (1) a foreign exchange inter...

  19. VOLATILITY OF EXCHANGE RATE IN THE CONTEXT OF FOREIGN TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg STRATULAT

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Moderate fluctuation of the exchange rate, basically in its floating regime is considered normality. Meanwhile,excessive volatility of the exchange rate is an issue for many countries. Its elimination is directed to foreign trade, which, through essential exports, followed by significant currency inflows, contribute to the stability of exchange rates. Unfortunately, Moldova’s foreign trade has become a key factor in maintaining the stability of foreign exchange.

  20. Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Munazza Jabeen; Saud Ahmad Khan

    2014-01-01

    What drives volatility in foreign exchange market in Pakistan? This paper undertakes an analysis of modelling exchange rate volatility in Pakistan by potential macroeconomic fundamentals well-known in the economic literature. For this, monthly data on Pak Rupee exchange rates in the terms of major currencies (US Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen) and macroeconomics fundamentals is taken from April, 1982 to November, 2011. The results show thatthe PKR-USD exchange rate vo...

  1. Determining the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity – PPP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bangun WIDOYOKO

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the effect of inflation on the issue of exchange rate determination of the forward exchange rate on the exchange rate of RMB (Renminbi to Rupiah. Inflation has been chosen as an independent variable because of its close relation to PPP (purchasing power parity theory. Analyses in this research have used logistic analysis with time series data. The data that has been used include exchange rate data with the period 2007-2017 with a sample size of 132 data. The results of this study have shown that inflation is effective in determining the exchange rate.

  2. Increasing Stability in the Mix of Exchange-rate Policies.

    OpenAIRE

    Mushin, Jerry

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an examination of the experience of exchange-rate policy systems since 1996 and a comparison with the experience of 1978 to 1995. Exchange-rate policy has become more stable than it was in the earlier period. In addition, it has become polarized, with almost all countries choosing either a fixed exchange-rate regime (especially in low-GDP countries) or a floating exchange-rate regime (especially in high-GDP countries). Limited-flexibility exchange-rate systems have become unimpo...

  3. Fluctuation Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Indian Financial Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, A.; Barat, P.

    Here we investigate the scaling behavior and the complexity of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Our analysis revealed that the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar exhibits a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies show randomness and follow Gaussian distribution. Moreover, it is seen that the complexity of the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is less than the other three exchange rate returns.

  4. Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Korea's Seaborne Import Volume?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Beom Kim

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study used monthly data from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the effects of USD/KRW exchange rate volatility on seaborne import volume in Korea. The results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL analysis indicate that USD/KRW exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative influence on Korea's seaborne import volume. Moreover, the results of a vector error correction model (VECM analysis found that the USD/KRW exchange rate volatility exhibited short-term unidirectional causality on import volume and real income, and confirmed bidirectional causality between the real effective exchange rate and exchange rate volatility.

  5. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  6. Net ecosystem carbon exchange in three contrasting Mediterranean ecosystems – the effect of drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. David

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Droughts reduce gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco, contributing to most of the inter-annual variability in terrestrial carbon sequestration. In seasonally dry climates (Mediterranean, droughts result from reductions in annual rainfall and changes in rain seasonality. We compared carbon fluxes measured by the eddy covariance technique in three contrasting ecosystems in southern Portugal: an evergreen oak woodland (savannah-like with ca.~21% tree crown cover, a grassland dominated by herbaceous annuals and a coppiced short-rotation eucalyptus plantation. During the experimental period (2003–2006 the eucalyptus plantation was always the strongest sink for carbon: net ecosystem exchange rate (NEE between −861 and −399 g C m−2 year−1. The oak woodland and the grassland were much weaker sinks for carbon: NEE varied in the oak woodland between −140 and −28 g C m−2 year−1 and in the grassland between −190 and +49 g C m−2 year−1. The eucalyptus stand had higher GPP and a lower proportion of GPP spent in respiration than the other systems. The higher GPP resulted from high leaf area duration (LAD, as a surrogate for the photosynthetic photon flux density absorbed by the canopy. The eucalyptus had also higher rain use efficiency (GPP per unit of rain volume and light use efficiency (the daily GPP per unit incident photosynthetic photon flux density than the other two ecosystems. The effects of a severe drought could be evaluated during the hydrological-year (i.e., from October to September of 2004–2005. Between October 2004 and June 2005 the precipitation was only 40% of the long-term average. In 2004–2005 all ecosystems had GPP lower than in wetter years and carbon sequestration was strongly restricted (less negative NEE. The grassland was a net source of carbon dioxide (+49 g C m−2 year−1. In the oak woodland a large proportion of GPP resulted from carbon assimilated by its annual vegetation

  7. Exchange rate risks and their impact upon the energy market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abed Al-Zabidi

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of international business in Slovakia brought not only the opening of markets and expansion of enterprise possibilities but also an increase in the competition and new risks. One of such risks is also the exchange rate risk. The business that realizes a financial transaction exceeding borders of the state or derives his buying or selling prices in Slovak crowns from the foreign currency, is subjected to the exchange rate risks. The exchange rate risks are caused by volatility of exchange courses of Slovak crowns related to foreign currencies. The progress of exchange rates can considerably influence a real result of a transaction negatively; therefore it is important for enterprises to identify possible risks resulting from changes in exchange rates, so they could react accordingly.The proposed article is aimed at the explanation of basic techniques of minimizing exchange rate risks with the use of financial tools available on the financial market.

  8. Large interannual variability in net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange of a disturbed temperate peatland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslan-Sungur, Guler; Lee, Xuhui; Evrendilek, Fatih; Karakaya, Nusret

    2016-06-01

    Peatland ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle as significant C sinks. However, human-induced disturbances can turn these sinks into sources of atmospheric CO2. Long-term measurements are needed to understand seasonal and interannual variability of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and effects of hydrological conditions and their disturbances on C fluxes. Continuous eddy-covariance measurements of NEE were conducted between August 2010 and April 2014 at Yenicaga temperate peatland (Turkey), which was drained for agricultural usage and for peat mining until 2009. Annual NEE during the three full years of measurement indicated that the peatland acted as a CO2 source with large interannual variability, at rates of 246, 244 and 663 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) for 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively, except for June 2011, and May to July 2012. The emission strengths were comparable to those found for severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The peak CO2 emissions occurred in the dry summer of 2013 when water table level (WTL) was below a threshold value of -60 cm and soil water content (SCW) below a threshold value of 70% by volume. Water availability index was found to have a stronger explanatory power for variations in monthly ecosystem respiration (ER) than the traditional water status indicators (SCW and WTL). Air temperature, evapotranspiration and vapor pressure deficient were the most significant variables strongly correlated with NEE and its component fluxes of gross primary production and ER. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Determination of enzyme-substrate dissociation rates by dynamic isotope exchange enhancement experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.C.; Raushel, F.M.

    1986-01-01

    A new method for the determination of dissociation rates of enzyme-substrate complexes has been developed. The rate of exchange of a labeled product back into the substrate is measured during catalysis of the forward reaction when the forward reaction is kept far from equilibrium by the enzymatic removal of the nonexchanging product. The ratio of the exchange rate and the net rate for product formation is then determined at various concentrations of the exchanging product. A plot of this ratio is a diagnostic indication of the kinetic mechanism and the relative rates of product dissociation from the binary and ternary enzyme complexes. This technique has been applied to the reaction catalyzed by bovine liver argininosuccinate lyase. The ratio for the rate of exchange of fumarate into argininosuccinate and the net rate for product formation was found to increase with the concentration of fumarate but to reach a limit of 3.3. The ratio of rates was half-maximal at 36 mM fumarate. The data have been interpreted to indicate the argininosuccinate lyase has a random kinetic mechanism. The calculated lower limit for the rate of release of arginine from the enzyme-fumarate-arginine complex is 0.35 times as fast as the Vmax in the reverse direction. The rate of release of arginine from the enzyme-arginine binary complex is 210 times faster than Vmax in the reverse direction

  10. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes......, and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...... regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...

  11. Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for Finland during the Floating Exchange Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Pösö, Mika; Spolander, Mikko

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, we use a fairly simple monetary macro model to calculate the quarterly measures of exchange market pressure and the degree of the Bank of Finland's intervention during the time the markka was floated. Exchange market pressure measures the size of the exchange rate change that would have occurred if the central bank had unexpectedly refrained from intervening in the foreign exchange market. Intervention activity of the central bank is measured as the proportion of exchange marke...

  12. World currency exchange rate cross-correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droå¼dż, S.; Górski, A. Z.; Kwapień, J.

    2007-08-01

    World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign exchange rates within the basket of 60 currencies in the period December 1998 May 2005. Such a dynamics turns out to predominantly involve one outstanding eigenvalue of the correlation matrix. The magnitude of this eigenvalue depends however crucially on which currency is used as a base currency for the remaining ones. Most prominent it looks from the perspective of a peripheral currency. This largest eigenvalue is seen to systematically decrease and thus the structure of correlations becomes more heterogeneous, when more significant currencies are used as reference. An extreme case in this later respect is the USD in the period considered. Besides providing further insight into subtle nature of complexity, these observations point to a formal procedure that in general can be used for practical purposes of measuring the relative currencies significance on various time horizons.

  13. Russian – Chinese Trade and Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The author assesses the impact of the Yuan exchange rate volatility on the indicators of the Russian-Chinese trade (the analysis is made on the ground of the statistical database CEIC. Quantitative estimates of changes in Russian-Chinese merchandise trade by commodity groups (in the HS classification due to the revaluation of the CNY against the USD were obtained via the regression analysis. In the case of the revaluation of the Yuan to the US dollar the value of Russian exports may increase for such commodity groups as mineral products, chemical industry products, base metals, precious stones and metals, and vehicles. This article shows that the value of Chinese imports will decrease for such merchandise groups as transport vehicles, machinery and equipment, leather industry products, non-precious metals and products from them; in this case, the import of the food industry products, mineral products and optical instruments will decrease insignificantly. The author concludes that the revaluation of the Yuan, contributing to the growth of Russian exports and the reduction in Chinese imports, will not cause a radical change in structure of the Russian-Chinese trade

  14. Net ecosystem exchange and energy fluxes measured with the eddy covariance technique in a western Siberian bog

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Alekseychik

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Very few studies of ecosystem–atmosphere exchange involving eddy covariance data have been conducted in Siberia, with none in the western Siberian middle taiga. This work provides the first estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2 and energy budgets in a typical bog of the western Siberian middle taiga based on May–August measurements in 2015. The footprint of measured fluxes consisted of a homogeneous mixture of tree-covered ridges and hollows with the vegetation represented by typical sedges and shrubs. Generally, the surface exchange rates resembled those of pine-covered bogs elsewhere. The surface energy balance closure approached 100 %. Net CO2 uptake was comparatively high, summing up to 202 gC m−2 for the four measurement months, while the Bowen ratio was seasonally stable at 28 %. The ecosystem turned into a net CO2 source during several front passage events in June and July. The periods of heavy rain helped keep the water table at a sustainably high level, preventing a usual drawdown in summer. However, because of the cloudy and rainy weather, the observed fluxes might rather represent the special weather conditions of 2015 than their typical magnitudes.

  15. Measurement-based upscaling of pan Arctic net ecosystem exchange: the PANEEx project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbufong, Herbert Njuabe; Kusbach, Antonin; Lund, Magnus

    2015-01-01

    The high variability in Arctic tundra net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon (C) can be attributed to the high spatial heterogeneity of Arctic tundra due to the complex topography. Current models of C exchange handle the Arctic as either a single or few ecosystems, responding to environmental...... change in the same manner. In this study, we developed and tested a simple NEE model using the Misterlich light response curve (LRC) function with photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) as the main driving variable. Model calibration was carried out with eddy covariance carbon dioxide data from 12...... Arctic tundra sites. The model input parameters (fcsat, Rd and α) were estimated as a function of air temperature (AirT) and leaf area index (LAI) and represent specific characteristics of the NEE-PPFD relationship, including the saturation flux, dark respiration and initial light use efficiency...

  16. Management of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramkishen S. Rajan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia over the decade 1999–2009. It finds that while Asia is home to a wide array of exchange rate regimes, there are signs of gradual movement toward somewhat greater exchange rate flexibility in many of the regional countries. There appears to be evidence of an apparent “fear of appreciation” which is manifested in asymmetric exchange rate intervention—i.e., a willingness to allow depreciations but reluctance to allow appreciations. This policy of effective exchange rate undervaluation is rather unorthodox from a neoclassical sense, but is consistent with a development policy centered on suppressing the price of non-tradable goods relative to tradables (i.e., real exchange rate undervaluation.

  17. Estimating the effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Stock ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The monthly closing returns of All-share index, exchange rates and interest rates ... The interest rate also showed a negative relationship but insignificant at the ... is a prerequisite for attracting investments especially foreign direct investment.

  18. Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Broda

    2002-01-01

    Since Friedman (1953), an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-96) of seventy-five developing countries to assess whether the responses of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices to terms-of-trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes. I find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way tha...

  19. The Skill-Biased Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Boris Kaiser; Michael Siegenthaler

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the linkages between real exchange rate movements and firms' skill demand. Real exchange rate movements may affect unskilled workers differently than skilled workers because of skill-specific adjustment costs, or because exchange rates lead to changes in relative factor prices and firms' competition intensity. Using panel data on Swiss manufacturers, we find that an appreciation increases high-skilled and reduces low-skilled employment in most firms, while total employment...

  20. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Tims, Ben; Mahieu, Ronald

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Due to the normality of logarithmic volatilities the model can be estimated conveniently with standard Kalman filter techniques. Our resu...

  1. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Minh Thi Hong Le; Ha Thi Cam Huynh; Hong Thi Thu Dinh

    2017-01-01

    The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the...

  2. Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Zi-Yi

    2017-01-01

    One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

  3. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given to the rationale for choosing one type of regime over another and how the variations in the nominal or real exchange rate affect the economies of these countries. This Ph.D. thesis is a combination ...

  4. Search for a new exchange-rate regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, J

    1987-07-31

    The regime of unmanaged floating exchange rates was implicitly judged a failure when, with the Plaza Agreement, attempts at cooperative exchange-rate management were reintroduced primarily because of concern at the size of misalignments. Any satisfactory successor regime will need to limit misalignments while retaining the genuine social benefits of exchange-rate flexibility. It is argued that a system of target zones for exchange rates, ideally embedded in a more comprehensive set of guidelines for international economic policy coordination, could best reconcile these needs.

  5. Fluxes and exchange rates of radon and oxygen across an air-sea interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duenas, C.; Fernandez, M.C.; La Torre, M. de

    1986-01-01

    The flux of 222 Rn and O 2 from shallow water off the Bay of Malaga has been measured. The mean value of flux of 222 Rn is evaluated to be 74 atoms/m 2 · s. The Bay is a weak source of oxygen to the atmosphere, where the net production of oxygen is found to be 1.82 mol/m 2 · y. Moreover, the gas exchange rates of 222 Rn and O 2 across the air-sea interface has been determined by the radon method. The gas exchange rates and the wind speed have been estimated. (author)

  6. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a cutover peatland rehabilitated with a transplanted acrotelm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cagampan, J.P.; Waddington, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Peatlands are an important long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The storage function of peatland ecosystems is significantly impacted by drainage and extraction processes, which can result in the release of significant amounts of CO 2 . This paper investigated the net ecosystem CO 2 exchange of a newly developed extraction-restoration technique that preserved the acrotelm and replaced it directly on the cut surface of the peatlands. The technique used a modified block-cut method with a back-hoe to create a drainage ditch. Actrotelm and surface vegetation were removed and placed to one side, and the peat was mechanically removed. The acrotelm was then transplanted over the older and more decomposed catotelm peat to create a trench topography in which the natural peatland was higher than the extracted zone. Air temperatures, water table levels, and volumetric moisture content levels were measured throughout the experiment. Measurements of CO 2 exchange were taken for the duration of a Spring and summer growing season at 12 sampling locations. Results of the experiment showed that the technique was successful in maintaining moisture conditions similar to those observed in the natural peatlands. However, the peatlands where the technique was used were still net emitters of CO 2 . Recommendations for improving the technique included using more care when removing upper peat layers; limiting surface damage; and reducing spaces and gaps between the transplanted acrotelm. 34 refs., 8 figs

  7. EFECT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence Olisaemeka UFOEZE

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian economy. The fixed and floating exchange eras were compared to know the exchange rate system in which the economy has fairly better. The time period covered was 1970 to 2012. The study employed the ordinary least square (OLS multiple regression technique for the analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2, F-test, t-test, beta and Durbin-Watson were used in the interpretation of the results. The resulted revealed that about 85% of the changes in macroeconomic indicators are explained in the fixed exchange era. In the floating exchange era, 99% was explained while the whole periods has 73% explanatory power, hence the floating exchange era (1986 to date is more effective in explaining economic trend in Nigeria. Also, exchange rate has significant positive effect on GDP during the fixed exchange rate era and negative effect the eras floating and all-time; inflation has insignificant negative effect on GDP during the fixed exchange era; significant effect in floating era and significant negative effect in the all-time period; money supply has insignificant negative effect GDP in fixed exchange era; and significant positive effect during the floating and all-time period; and oil revenue has significant positive effect on the GDP in all the exchange rate regimes (floating, fixed and all-time in Nigeria.  The study thus conclude that exchange rate movement is a good indicator for monitoring Nigerian economic growth. So far exchange rate has always been a key economic indicator for Nigeria. The floating exchange period has outperformed the fixed exchange rate in terms of contribution inflation, money supply and oil revenue to economic growth. This indicate that the floating exchange rate has been a better economic regime for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. From the findings, it is evident that oil revenue has positive effect in Nigeria and has remained the mainstay

  8. Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe; Param Silvapulle

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Japan for the period January 1975 to June 1997. Although several studies put forward theoretical arguments for the volatility-domestic import price relationship, only a very few studies produced empirical evidence. The volatility of contractual currency based exchange rate index returns was modelled using GARCH-type processes with skewed student t-distribution, capturing the typical n...

  9. Investigating the effects of liquidity and exchange rate on Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younos Vakil Alroaia

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of two macroeconomic factors; namely exchange rate and liquidity on stock index. The proposed study was applied in Iran and on major index of Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2001-2011. They reported that the currency exchange maintained negative impact on stock exchange for the period of investigation. This is due to the fact that when currency devalued, working capital decreases and firms did not enough money to purchase raw materials, pay wages, etc. In addition, liquidity marinated a direct and positive relationship with exchange index. However, the impact of liquidity seems to be bigger than currency exchange.

  10. The Brazilian experience in managing interest-exchange rate nexus

    OpenAIRE

    Ricardo Carneiro; Pedro Rossi

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses four main questions: firstly, it discusses some theoretical background related to the interest-exchange rate nexus; secondly, it makes an attempt to explain why the interest rate in Brazil is so high, examining briefly the main explanations for it; thirdly, it describes Brazil’s foreign exchange markets, their size and hierarchy; and lastly, it explains the carry trade dynamics considering the institutionalism of the Brazilian foreign exchange market and also the govern...

  11. IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN CONTEMPORARY VIETNAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    The Dong Phung

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the issue of effectiveness of exchange rate policy in contemporary Vietnam, along with the assessment of the mechanism of this policy from 1989 to the present day. The author analyzes constraints of implementing the exchange rate policy in the past and gives recommendations aimed at improving its efficiency nowadays.

  12. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    Studies on exchange rate overshooting on the Zambian foreign exchange rate market are .... depreciation between 2008 and 2009 during the great recession. Figure 2 shows ...... manufacturing sector in Nigeria', European Journal of Business and Management, 5(22):. 67–73 .... paper. Washington, DC: IMF Working Paper.

  13. The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural export commodities in Nigeria. ... The overall results confirmed that in most cases, the lagged values of exchange rate devaluation had a significant and positive relationship with agricultural export commodities but of a higher magnitude in the Total agricultural ...

  14. Exchange rate volatility and regime change: a Visegrad comparison

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Valachy, J.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 4 (2006), s. 727-753 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : exchange rate s * exchange rate regime s * volatility Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.964, year: 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2006.07.003

  15. Unpredictable After All? A short note on exchange rate predictability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A. Moerman (Gerard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractEarlier research has shown that it is very hard to outperform the random walk model with respect to forecasting exchange rates. In this paper we propose an extension to the regular regime-switching model in order to capture the exchange rate dynamics. The model is extended by including

  16. Are international fund flows related to exchange rate dynamics?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Suxiao; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    2018-01-01

    Employing monthly data for 53 countries between 1996 and 2015, we investigate the relationship between international fund flows and exchange rate dynamics. We find strong co-movement between funds flows (as measured with the EPFR Global data base) and bilateral real exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD.

  17. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  18. Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian evidence. ... income levels and real interest rate differentials provide better forecasts of the ... partner can expect to suffer depreciation in the external value of her currency.

  19. Impact of exchange rates on the world uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fulton, M.E.; Combs, G.F. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    A preliminary analysis of the relationship between exchange rates and US uranium prices and product ion is presented. This analysis supplements the discussions on the broader topic of fuel prices, exchange rates and other international economic phenomena scheduled during the 1985 EPRI Fuel Supply Seminar. By varying exchange rate assumptions in the recently developed Uranium Market Model, estimates of the magnitude and timing of price and production effects were obtained. These effects do indeed appear to be large and have implications in procurement, fuel planning and commodity policy. While analysts may differ on details, the inescapable conclusion is that exchange rates matter a great deal in the uranium market. The case described is for a scenario of exchange rates with other currencies returning to their 1980 levels. A second case, an across the board weakening of the dollar by 25%, the results of which are somewhat less dramatic is also examined

  20. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    of the extra-market exchange rate exposure of individual companies. As such, only a minority of companies has significant exposures when using the effective Danish exchange rate in an OLS regression analysis while half of the companies have significant exposures when using five main exchange rates. A GARCH(1......A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity......,1) regression analysis is shown to further improve the detection of exposures. The success in identifying exposures for Danish non-financial companies is in contrast to earlier US studies and is relevant in a European context....

  1. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices...... of exchange rate futures options, allowingcalculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationallyefficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore,we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation...... for impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component....

  2. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG Model

    OpenAIRE

    Thi Hong Thinh DOAN; Karine GENTE

    2013-01-01

    This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciati...

  3. Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determinationand Market Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    Richard M. Levich

    1983-01-01

    Theoretical and empirical research completed over the last decade has dramatically increased our understanding of exchange rate behavior. The major insight to come from this decade of research is that foreign exchange is a financial asset. In an asset pricing framework, current exchange rates reflect the expected values of future exogenous variables. The purpose of this paper is to survay the empirical evidence on exchange rate behavior, market efficiency and related topics. Section 2 present...

  4. Net ecosystem exchange in a sedge-sphagnum fen at the South of West Siberia, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyukarev, Egor

    2017-04-01

    The model of net ecosystem exchange was used to study the influence of different environmental factors and to calculate daily and growing season carbon budget for minerotrophic fen at South of West Siberia, Russia. Minerotrophic sedge-sphagnum fen occupies the central part of the Bakcharskoe bog. The model uses air and soil temperature, incoming photosynthetically active radiation, and leaf area index as the explanatory factors for gross primary production, heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration. The model coefficients were calibrated using data collected by automated soil CO2 flux system with clear long-term chamber. The studied ecosystem is a sink of carbon according to modelling and observation results. This study was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Researches (grant numbers 16-07-01205 and 16-45-700562.

  5. Thermal optimality of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and underlying mechanisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niu, Shuli; Luo, Yiqi; Fei, Shenfeng

    2012-01-01

    distributed sites of eddy covariance and quantified the temperature response functions of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), an ecosystem‐level property, to determine whether NEE shows thermal optimality and to explore the underlying mechanisms. We found that the temperature response of NEE followed a peak curve......, with the optimum temperature (corresponding to the maximum magnitude of NEE) being positively correlated with annual mean temperature over years and across sites. Shifts of the optimum temperature of NEE were mostly a result of temperature acclimation of gross primary productivity (upward shift of optimum...... ecosystem–climate change feedbacks. The thermal optimality of NEE has implications for understanding fundamental properties of ecosystems in changing environments and benchmarking global models....

  6. The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members: evidence from real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; van Veen, T.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future

  7. The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members : Evidence from real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; Veen, van A.P. (Tom)

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future

  8. Post-Fire Evapotranspiration and Net Ecosystem Exchange over A Semi-Arid Grassland in Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, P.; Meyers, T. P.; Heuer, M.

    2015-12-01

    The seasonal and interannual variability of evapotranspiration (E) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) following a fire disturbance over a semi -arid grassland located on the Audubon Research Ranch in south western Arizona (31.5907N, 110.5104W, elevation 1496 m), USA, and their relationships to environmental variables were examined using continuous measurements of water vapour and CO2 fluxes made from first week of June 2002 to 2009 using the eddy covariance technique. The research ranch was established in 1969 as an ecological research preserve and it is now one of the largest ungrazed, privately managed grassland sites in Arizona. A wild fire occurred in April - May 2002, and burned all the standing vegetation and litter on in research ranch (~38,000 acres) including 500 acres of grassland. The mean annual temperature and precipitation (P) at this site were ~16 deg C and ~370 mm, respectively. More than 60% of the annual P was received during the North American monsoon period (July-September) with the lowest annual P in the drought years of 2004 and 2009. Drastic changes in albedo, vegetation growth and evapotranspiration occurred following the onset of the monsoon season in July. The ecosystem was mostly a carbon sink during monsoon period. Daily total evapotranspiration during July-August increased from 2 mm d-1 in 2002 to >3 mm d-1 in 2007. The mean annual E over the site was during 2003 -2009 was 352 ±75 mm. With the onset of monsoon the ecosystem turned to carbon sink in 2002, with daily total net ecosystem exchange (NEE) varying up to ~vegetation index, longest monsoon growing season and the highest annual and July-September P. The interannual variations in annual E and NEE were mostly controlled by annual P, July-September NDVI and growing season length during 2002-2009.

  9. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  10. Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Relationship in BRIC-T Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Selim KAYHAN; Tayfur BAYAT; Ahmet UGUR

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the dynamic relationships between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate in the BRIC-T (Brazil, Russia, India, China and Turkey) countries by employing monthly data from the beginning of flexible exchange rate regime to July 2011. For this aim, non-linear causality test and frequency domain causality test approaches are used. According to frequency domain causality test results, interest rate affects exchange rate in only China and this effect exist only in the ...

  11. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  12. Exchange Rate – Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

    2005-01-01

    The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Malays...

  13. Determination of the Optimal Exchange Rate Via Control of the Domestic Interest Rate in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virtue U. Ekhosuehi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An economic scenario has been considered where the government seeks to achieve a favourable balance-of-payments over a fixed planning horizon through exchange rate policy and control of the domestic interest rate. The dynamics of such an economy was considered in terms of a bounded optimal control problem where the exchange rate is the state variable and the domestic interest rate is the control variable. The idea of balance-of-payments was used as a theoretical underpinning to specify the objective function. By assuming that, changes in exchange rates were induced by two effects: the impact of the domestic interest rate on the exchange rate and the exchange rate system adopted by the government. Instances for both fixed and flexible optimal exchange rate regimes have been determined. The use of the approach has been illustrated employing data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN statistical bulletin. (original abstract

  14. Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Koroliuk Tatiana Aleksandrovna

    2014-01-01

    The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

  15. Exchange Rate and International Trade: Case From Indonesian Manufacturing Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anung Yoga Anindhita

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to have impacts on the international trade through its adjustment to the price and its volatility to the trade risk. This paper is aimed at estimating those impacts on the international trade of manufacturing sector in Indonesia for period 2007 to 2014. To conduct estimation, it uses multiple regression analysis on two models: First, the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials; Second, the export of manufacturing sector. The results show that the exchange rate impacts both work significantly on the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials. The finding implies that, through the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials, manufacturing sector is very susceptible to the shock caused by exchange rate changes. Meanwhile, the export of manufacturing sector is not able to take advantage of the depreciation of the exchange rate due to the lack of competitiveness.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5210

  16. China’s Exchange Rate Policy: A Double Edged Sword

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    market.10 These four characteristics allowed the East Asian countries of Japan, Taiwan , and South Korea to develop at exponential rates for decades. This...EXCHANGE RATE POLICY Chapter II provides background on important factors affecting China’s exchange rate policy, as well as an overview of its...include telecommunications, tourism , hospitality, 51 World’s Richest Countries, “Top Ten Chinese

  17. Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity, and Exchange Rate Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Eaton, Jonathan; Turnovsky, Stephen J.

    1981-01-01

    A number of macroeconomic models of open economies under flexible exchange rate assume a strong version of perfect capital mobility which implies that currency speculation commands no risk premium. If this assumption is dropped a number of important results no longer obtain. First, the exchange rate and interest rate cannot be in steady state unless both the government deficit and current account equal zero, not simply their sum, as would otherwise be the case. Second, even in steady state th...

  18. Exchange rate regimes and inflation: Evidence from India.

    OpenAIRE

    Mohanty, Biswajit; Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    2014-01-01

    Exchange rate stability is crucial for inflation management as a stable rate is expected to reduce domestic inflation pressures through a `policy discipline effect'- restricting money supply growth, and a `credibility effect'- inducing higher money demand and reduced velocity of money. Alternatively, the impossibility trillema predicts that in the presence of an open capital account, a stable exchange rate may lead to lack of control on monetary policy and, hence, higher inflation. Using a mo...

  19. The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

  20. EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezsi Eva

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

  1. Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Assenmacher, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2......) cointegrated VAR model, much of the excess return puzzle disappears when an uncertainty premium in the foreign exchange market, proxied by the persistent PPP gap, is introduced. Self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms seem to cause the persistence in the Swiss-US parity conditions. These results support imperfect...

  2. Exchange rate determination and the flaws of mainstream monetary theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HEINER FLASSBECK

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Developing countries in general need flexibility and a sufficient number of instruments to prevent excessive volatility. Evidence does not support the orthodox belief that, with free floating, international financial markets will perform that role by smoothly adjusting exchange rates to their “equilibrium” level. In reality, exchange rates under a floating regime have proved to be highly unstable, leading to long spells of misalignment. The experience with hard pegs has not been satisfactory either: the exchange rate could not be corrected in cases of external shocks or misalignment. Given this experience, “intermediate” regimes are preferable when there is instability in international financial markets.

  3. Exchange Rate Effects on International Commercial Trade Competitiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionel Bostan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study is meant to be an evaluation sustained by theoretical and empirical considerations of the exchange rate impact on international commercial trade competitiveness. In this respect, the study aims to find how the exchange rate influences Romanian competitiveness through assessing the effects generated on exports and imports. The main purpose of the study is to assess the complex action of the exchange rate on international commercial trade competitiveness in contemporaneity and the connections between these variables. The empirical part contains a regression analysis where exports and imports are dependent variables influenced by a series of determinants.

  4. Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

  5. Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firman Mochtar

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006 approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007, two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movement of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rate changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in the real exchange rate behavior may be strongly justified by the implementation of free-floating exchange rate system since August 1997. Second, the shift of the real exchange rate behavior after 2000 does not necessarily affect the current account dynamics. Empirical evidence confirms that the variance of current account post 2000 remains largely due to temporary shocks. Albeit having increasing influence, permanent shocks have insignificant effect in explaining fluctuations of the current account. In this sense, the current account surplus after 2000 is attributed largely to nominal variables such as price increase, while the impact of productivity improvement is still limited.

  6. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  7. Relationship between indoor radon concentrations and air exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jingshu; Liu Yuyu; Yao Xiaohua; Meng Jianfeng; Zhang Yongyi; Wang Xiaohe; Yu Xiufen.

    1995-01-01

    The indoor concentration of radon and the air exchange rate were simultaneously measured in four empty rooms, made of brick and cement, which were located in different floors of dwelling houses in Taiyuan, Shanxi, China. SF 6 tracer gas decay method was used to measure the air exchange rate. Indoor radon was collected with the dimembrane method. When the ventilation rate increased, the concentration of radon dropped rapidly. Regression analysis indicated that the indoor concentration of radon was equal to the outdoor level of radon when the air exchange rate was greater than 3-4. SF 6 decay method was an effective and convenient method for measuring the air exchange rate. There was no marked difference in measurements obtained in different locations of a room. (N.K.)

  8. Separation of rate processes for isotopic exchange between hydrogen and liquid water in packed columns 10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butler, J.P.; Hartog, J. den; Goodale, J.W.; Rolston, J.H.

    1977-01-01

    Wetproofed platinum catalysts in packed columns promote isotopic exchange between counter-current streams of hydrogen saturated with water vapour and liquid water. The net rate of deuterium transfer from isotopically enriched hydrogen has been measured and separated into two rate processes involving the transfer of deuterium from hydrogen to water vapour and from water vapour to liquid. These are compared with independent measurements of the two rate processes to test the two-step successive exchange model for trickle bed reactors. The separated transfer rates are independent of bed height and characterize the deuterium concentrations of each stream along the length of the bed. The dependences of the transfer rates upon hydrogen and liquid flow, hydrogen pressure, platinum loading and the effect of dilution of the hydrophobic catalyst with inert hydrophilic packing are reported. The results indicate a third process may be important in the transfer of deuterium between hydrogen and liquid water. (author)

  9. Regional Atmospheric CO2 Inversion Reveals Seasonal and Geographic Differences in Amazon Net Biome Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alden, Caroline B.; Miller, John B.; Gatti, Luciana V.; Gloor, Manuel M.; Guan, Kaiyu; Michalak, Anna M.; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid; Touma, Danielle; Andrews, Arlyn; Basso, Luana G.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere (NBE), which represents nonfire carbon fluxes into and out of biomass and soils. Subannual and sub-Basin Amazon NBE estimates have relied heavily on process-based biosphere models, despite lack of model agreement with plot-scale observations. We present a new analysis of airborne measurements that reveals monthly, regional-scale (Approx.1-8 x 10(exp -6) km2) NBE variations. We develop a regional atmospheric CO2 inversion that provides the first analysis of geographic and temporal variability in Amazon biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange and that is minimally influenced by biosphere model-based first guesses of seasonal and annual mean fluxes. We find little evidence for a clear seasonal cycle in Amazon NBE but do find NBE sensitivity to aberrations from long-term mean climate. In particular, we observe increased NBE (more carbon emitted to the atmosphere) associated with heat and drought in 2010, and correlations between wet season NBE and precipitation (negative correlation) and temperature (positive correlation). In the eastern Amazon, pulses of increased NBE persisted through 2011, suggesting legacy effects of 2010 heat and drought. We also identify regional differences in postdrought NBE that appear related to long-term water availability. We examine satellite proxies and find evidence for higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during a pulse of increased carbon uptake in 2011, and lower GPP during a period of increased NBE in the 2010 dry season drought, but links between GPP and NBE changes are not conclusive. These results provide novel evidence of NBE sensitivity to short-term temperature and moisture extremes in the Amazon, where monthly and sub

  10. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  11. MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN FLEXIBLE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE CASE OF SELECTED TRANSITION ECONOMIES

    OpenAIRE

    JOSIFIDIS, Kosta; PUCAR, Emilija Beker; SUPIĆ, Novica

    2010-01-01

    The paper explores selected monetary transmission channels in the case of transition economies. Namely, an exchange rate channel, an interest rate channel, direct and indirect influence to an exchange rate, are focused. Specific (former) transition economies are differentiated according the combination of implemented monetary and exchange rate regimes: exchange rate as a nominal anchor and rigid exchange rate regimes, exchange rate as a nominal anchor and intermediate exchange rate regimes, a...

  12. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klára Plecitá

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998. In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

  13. Rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Masanori; Poulson, Simon R

    2012-04-17

    The rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water was investigated at conditions of 10 to 80 °C and pH -0.6 to 4.4. Oxygen isotope exchange proceeds as a first-order reaction, and the exchange rate is strongly affected by reaction temperature and pH, with increased rates of isotope exchange at higher temperature and lower pH. Selenate speciation (HSeO(4)(-) vs SeO(4)(2-)) also has a significant effect on the rate of isotope exchange. The half-life for isotope exchange at example natural conditions (25 °C and pH 7) is estimated to be significantly in excess of 10(6) years. The very slow rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water under most environmental conditions demonstrates that selenate-δ(18)O signatures produced by biogeochemical processes will be preserved and hence that it will be possible to use the value of selenate-δ(18)O to investigate the biogeochemical behavior of selenate, in an analogous fashion to the use of sulfate-δ(18)O to study the biogeochemical behavior of sulfate.

  14. Exchange Rate Fluctuation and the Nigeria Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawal Adedoyin Isola

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria within the context of four profound theories: purchasing power parity; monetary model of exchange rates; the portfolio balance approach; and the optimal currency area theory. Data was collected from the CBN statistical bulletin in Nigeria from 2003– 2013and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL model was employed to estimate the model. In the model, real GDP (RGDP was used as the proxy for economic growth while Inflation rate (IF, Exchange rate (EXC, Interest rate (INT and Money Supply(M2 as proxies for other macroeconomic variables. The empirical results show that exchange rate fluctuation has no effect on economic growth in the long run though a short run relationship exist between the two. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that the Central bank for policy purposes should ensure that stern foreign exchange control policies are put in place in order to help in appropriate determination of the value of the exchange rate. This will in the long run help to strengthen the value of the Naira.

  15. Evaluation of Exchange Rate Policy on Agricultural Trade in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development ... this study was to evaluate the effect of exchange rate policy on agricultural trade in Nigeria. ... Government support to farmers in the form of credit and input subsidies is a veritable ...

  16. Can producer currency pricing models generate volatile real exchange rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Povoledo, L.

    2012-01-01

    If the elasticities of substitution between traded and nontraded and between Home and Foreign traded goods are sufficiently low, then the real exchange rate generated by a model with full producer currency pricing is as volatile as in the data.

  17. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  18. Exchange Rate Regime and External Adjustment in CEE Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Pietrucha

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews effects of exchange rate regime's choice for adjustments processes in current accounts (CA in the Central and Eastern Europe countries between 2008-2012. During the period of global financial crisis, Poland may be treated as a handbook example of the reaction of floating exchange rate to shock and adjustments in the form of expenditure switching. However, the Polish experience is not typical among the Central and Eastern Europe countries. There is no evidence for the positive role of floating exchange rate in macroeconomic adjustments after the crisis in Central and Eastern Europe countries which belong to EU. The adjustments in the countries with fixed regimes were fast and deep. The real exchange rate decreased and export, CA and goods and services balance improved, development distance against EU countries was reduced. However, the experience of Baltic countries, which have internal devaluation, should be very carefully conveyed to other countries.

  19. Intervention analysis of Nigeria's foreign exchange rate | Mosugu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... impact of Nigeria's foreign exchange rate using classical multiple regression model under ... A useful approach is to test the significant change between the long-run mean effect ...

  20. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  1. MANAGED FLOAT EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM: THE SINGAPORE EXPERIENCE

    OpenAIRE

    HOE EE KHOR; JASON LEE; EDWARD ROBINSON; SAKTIANDI SUPAAT

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the key characteristics of Singapore's exchange rate-centered monetary policy; in particular, its managed float regime which incorporates key features of the basket, band and crawl system popularized by Williamson (1998, 1999). We assess how the flexibility accorded by this framework has been advantageous in facilitating adjustment to various shocks to the economy. A characterization of the countercyclical nature of Singapore's exchange rate policy is also offered, with re...

  2. Trade Openness And Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel Data Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    César Calderón

    2004-01-01

    A recent strand of the literature, the so-called “New Open Economy Macroeconomics”, argues that nonmonetary factors have gained importance in explaining exchange rate volatility. In this context, it has been suggested the inclusion of shocks to productivity, terms of trade, and government spending, among others. The goal of the present paper is to explain the real exchange rate volatility by positing a structural relationship between volatility and its determinants. To perform our task we col...

  3. Productivity Demand Shocks And Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Ordean Olson

    2011-01-01

    The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivities for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Time series regressions of the real exchange rate on relative productivity ratios indicate significant relationships for the Philippines, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. Only when a...

  4. Real Effective Exchange Rate Dynamics in Malawi and South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Kisu Simwaka

    2004-01-01

    This study investigates the main determinants of real effective exchange rate in Malawi and South Africa. In our empirical analysis, we conducted unit root and cointegration test in order to determine the time series properties of the data and establish whether there is a long run relationship between real effective exchange rate and explanatory variables. Having ascertained that almost all variiables are integrated of order one and cointegrated, an error correction model is formulated and es...

  5. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  6. Hot Tip: Nominal Exchange Rates and Inflation Indexed Bond Yields

    OpenAIRE

    Richard H. Clarida

    2013-01-01

    This paper derives a structural relationship between the nominal exchange rate, national price levels, and observed yields on long maturity inflation - indexed bonds. This relationship can be interpreted as defining the fair value of the exchange rate that will prevail in any model or real world economy in which inflation indexed bonds are traded. An advantage of our derivation is that it does not require restrictive assumptions on financial market equilibrium to be operational. We take our t...

  7. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  8. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  9. Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela

    OpenAIRE

    Hilde Bjørnland

    2004-01-01

    To determine whether the real exchange rate is misaligned with respect to its long-run equilibrium is an important issue for policy makers. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. By imposing long-run restrictions on a VAR model for Venezuela, four structural shocks are identified: Nominal demand, real demand, supply and oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are c...

  10. Targeting the Real Exchange Rate; Theory and Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos A. Végh Gramont; Guillermo Calvo; Carmen Reinhart

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the mo...

  11. How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?

    OpenAIRE

    Helene Poirson Ward

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 93 countries during 1990-98. Cross-country analysis of variations in international reserves and nominal exchange rates shows that (i) truly fixed pegs and independent floats differ significantly from other regimes and (ii) significant discrepancies exist between de jure and de facto flexibility. Regression results highlight the influence of political factors (political instability and government temptation to inflate),...

  12. Exchange rate based stabilization : tales from Europe and Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Ades, Alberto F.; Kiguel, Miguel; Liviatan, Nissan

    1993-01-01

    There is convincing empirical evidence that the cycle for exchange-rate-based disinflation in high-inflation Latin American economies typically begins with expansion and ends in recession - a surprising pattern. The authors explore whether a similar cycle can be observed in exchange-rate-based disinflation in low-inflation economies. They draw on empirical evidence from stabilizaton programs in three European countries in the early 1980s: in Denmark (1982), Ireland (1982), and France (1983). ...

  13. Inflation, Growth and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Hernandez-Verme, Paula

    2002-01-01

    Summary. This is an extended working paper version of the paper that appeared in Economic Theory. It paper compares the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in small open economies where financial intermediaries perform a real allocative function, there are multiple reserve requirements, and credit market frictions may or may not cause credit rationing. Under floating exchange rates, raising domestic inflation can increase production if credit is rationed. However, there exist infla...

  14. Drivers of inter-annual variability in Net Ecosystem Exchange in a semi-arid savanna ecosystem, South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archibald, SA

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available and filling gaps in eddy-covariance data in semi-arid systems were developed. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in these systems occurs as pulses associated with rainfall events, a pattern not well-represented in current standard gap-filling procedures developed...

  15. Modelling the limits on the response of net carbon exchange to fertilization in a south-eastern pine forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chun-Tai. Lai; G. Katul; J. Butnor; M. Siqueira; D. Ellsworth; C. Maier; Kurt Johnsen; S. Mickeand; R. Oren

    2002-01-01

    Using a combination of model simulations and detailed measurements at a hierarchy of scales conducted at a sandhills forest site, the effect of fertilization on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its components in 6-year-old Pinus taeda stands was quantified. The detailed measurements, collected over a 20-d period in September and October, included gas...

  16. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  17. Capital Controls and the Real Exchange Rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1990-01-01

    Capital import taxes lower (raise) world (home) interest rates. This shifts home expenditure from the present to the future and foreign expenditure from the future to today. With identical home and foreign expenditure patterns, the change in the composition of world expenditure has no effects on

  18. Strong tidal modulation of net ecosystem exchange in a salt marsh in North Inlet, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Halloran, T. L.; Smith, E. M.; Bogoev, I.

    2017-12-01

    Along the southeastern US, intertidal salt marshes represent a critical habitat at the interface of the terrestrial and marine environments and perform a variety of ecological functions and services that make them of great economic importance for coastal communities They provide essential fish and shellfish habitat, with a majority of all commercially- and recreationally important fish species being dependent on intertidal marsh habitat during some portion of their life cycle. The penaeid shrimp industry, South Carolina's most economically important fishery, would cease to exist without the critical nursery function provided by intertidal salt marshes. Smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) is a keystone species in the high salinity marshes of the southeastern U.S., and its functioning is essential to the health and survival of salt marshes under rising sea levels. To better quantify and facilitate prediction of future salt marsh productivity, in May of 2017, we established a new integrated eddy covariance tower system to measure the net ecosystem exchange of carbon in a salt marsh in coastal South Carolina. The tower site is co-located with long-term, ongoing measurements as part of the North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (NI-WB NERR). Current sampling conducted within the eddy flux footprint includes: annual measures of the vegetation community at the time of peak biomass; bi-monthly measures of sediment elevation at Sediment Elevation Tables (SETs) located at the upper and lower ends of the flux footprint; monthly sediment porewater salinity and nutrient (ammonium, orthophosphate) and sulfide concentrations; and biannual sediment elevation surveys by RTK-GPS. A suite of water quality measurements are made every 15 minutes in the main creek that floods the marsh platform in the flux footprint. Here we present our first six months of observations investigating the abiotic drivers of productivity on daily (intratidal) to monthly timescales

  19. An Econometric Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Movements within a Band - Implications for Interest Rate Differential and Credibility of Exchange Rate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Rantala, Olavi

    1992-01-01

    The paper presents a model ofexchange rate movements within a specified exchange rate band enforced by central bank interventions. The model is based on the empirical observation that the exchange rate has usually been strictly inside the band, at least in Finland. In this model the distribution of the exchange rate is truncated lognormal from the edges towards the center of the band and hence quite different from the bimodal distribution of the standard target zone model. The model is estima...

  20. Estimating net ecosystem exchange of carbon using the normalized difference vegetation index and an ecosystem model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veroustraete, F.; Patyn, J.; Myneni, R.B.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation and prediction of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global change. An operational concept for the determination of carbon fluxes for the Belgian territory is the goal of the presented study. The approach is based on the integration of remotely sensed data into ecosystem models in order to evaluate photosynthetic assimilation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Remote sensing can be developed as an operational tool to determine the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (feAR). A review of the methodological approach of mapping fPAR dynamics at the regional scale by means of NOAA11-A VHRR / 2 data for the year 1990 is given. The processing sequence from raw radiance values to fPAR is presented. An interesting aspect of incorporating remote sensing derived fPAR in ecosystem models is the potential for modeling actual as opposed to potential vegetation. Further work should prove whether the concepts presented and the assumptions made in this study are valid. (NEE). Complex ecosystem models with a highly predictive value for a specific ecosystem are generally not suitable for global or regional applications, since they require a substantial set of ancillary data becoming increasingly larger with increasing complexity of the model. The ideal model for our purpose is one that is simple enough to be used in global scale modeling, and which can be adapted for different ecosystems or vegetation types. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) during the growing season determines in part net photosynthesis and phytomass production (Ruimy, 1995). Remotely measured red and near-infrared spectral reflectances can be used to estimate fPAR. Therefore, a possible approach is to estimate net photosynthesis, phytomass, and NEE from a combination of satellite data and an ecosystem model that includes carbon dynamics. It has to be stated that some parts of the work presented in this

  1. North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Andres, R. J.; Davis, K. J.; Hafer, M.; Hayes, D. J.; Huntzinger, D. N.; de Jong, B.; Kurz, W. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Vargas, R.; Wei, Y.; West, T. O.; Woodall, C. W.

    2015-01-01

    Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land-atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990-2009. Only CO2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from -890 to -280 Tg C yr-1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are -472 ± 281 Tg C yr-1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and -360 Tg C yr-1 (with an interquartile range of -496 to -337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the period 1990-2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr-1 and assuming the estimate of -472 Tg C yr-1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

  2. North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A.W.; Andres, R.J.; Davis, K.J.; Hafer, M.; Hayes, D.J.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; de Jong, Bernardus; Kurz, W.A.; McGuire, A. David; Vargas, Rodrigo I.; Wei, Y.; West, Tristram O.; Woodall, Christopher W.

    2015-01-01

    Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from −890 to −280 Tg C yr−1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are −472 ± 281 Tg C yr−1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and −360 Tg C yr−1 (with an interquartile range of −496 to −337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr−1 and assuming the estimate of −472 Tg C yr−1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was

  3. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility

    OpenAIRE

    Guillermo Calvo; Carlos A. Végh Gramont

    1991-01-01

    This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout th...

  4. Net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in tropical rainforests - sensitivity to environmental drivers and flux measurement methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Z.; Stoy, P. C.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical rainforests play a central role in the Earth system services of carbon metabolism, climate regulation, biodiversity maintenance, and more. They are under threat by direct anthropogenic effects including deforestation and indirect anthropogenic effects including climate change. A synthesis of the factors that determine the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) across multiple time scales in different tropical rainforests has not been undertaken to date. Here, we study NEE and its components, gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE), across thirteen tropical rainforest research sites with 63 total site-years of eddy covariance data. Results reveal that the five ecosystems that have greater carbon uptakes (with the magnitude of GPP greater than 3000 g C m-2 y-1) sequester less carbon - or even lose it - on an annual basis at the ecosystem scale. This counterintuitive result is because high GPP is compensated by similar magnitudes of RE. Sites that provided subcanopy CO2 storage observations had higher average magnitudes of GPP and RE and consequently lower NEE, highlighting the importance of measurement methodology for understanding carbon dynamics in tropical rainforests. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) constrained GPP at all sites, but to differing degrees. Many environmental variables are significantly related to NEE at time scales greater than one year, and NEE at a rainforest in Malaysia is significantly related to soil moisture variability at seasonal time scales. Climate projections from 13 general circulation models (CMIP5) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 suggest that many current tropical rainforest sites on the cooler end of the current temperature range are likely to reach a climate space similar to present-day warmer sites by the year 2050, and warmer sites will reach a climate space not currently experienced. Results demonstrate the need to quantify if mature tropical trees acclimate to heat and

  5. Effects of Recent Regional Soil Moisture Variability on Global Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L. A.; Madani, N.; Kimball, J. S.; Reichle, R. H.; Colliander, A.

    2017-12-01

    Soil moisture exerts a major regional control on the inter-annual variability of the global land sink for atmospheric CO2. In semi-arid regions, annual biomass production is closely coupled to variability in soil moisture availability, while in cold-season-affected regions, summer drought offsets the effects of advancing spring phenology. Availability of satellite solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) observations and improvements in atmospheric inversions has led to unprecedented ability to monitor atmospheric sink strength. However, discrepancies still exist between such top-down estimates as atmospheric inversion and bottom-up process and satellite driven models, indicating that relative strength, mechanisms, and interaction of driving factors remain poorly understood. We use soil moisture fields informed by Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) observations to compare recent (2015-2017) and historic (2000-2014) variability in net ecosystem land-atmosphere CO2 exchange (NEE). The operational SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4C) product relates ground-based flux tower measurements to other bottom-up and global top-down estimates to underlying soil moisture and other driving conditions using data-assimilation-based SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4SM). Droughts in coastal Brazil, South Africa, Eastern Africa, and an anomalous wet period in Eastern Australia were observed by L4C. A seasonal seesaw pattern of below-normal sink strength at high latitudes relative to slightly above-normal sink strength for mid-latitudes was also observed. Whereas SMAP-based soil moisture is relatively informative for short-term temporal variability, soil moisture biases that vary in space and with season constrain the ability of the L4C estimates to accurately resolve NEE. Such biases might be caused by irrigation and plant-accessible ground-water. Nevertheless, SMAP L4C daily NEE estimates connect top-down estimates to variability of effective driving factors for accurate estimates of regional

  6. A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ozlem Aytac

    2008-01-01

    The literature on the exchange-rate-based stabilization has focused almost exclusively in Latin America. Many other countries however, such as Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey; have undertaken this sort of programs in the last 10-15 years. I depart from the existing literature by developing a model specifically for the 2000-2001 heterodox exchange-rate-based stabilization program in Turkey: When the government lowers the rate of crawl, the rate of domestic credit creation is set equal to the lower r...

  7. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Klára Plecitá; Luboš Střelec

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with ...

  8. Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

    OpenAIRE

    Takatoshi Ito; Kiyotaka Sato

    2006-01-01

    Macroeconomic consequences of a large currency depreciation among the crisis-hit Asian economies had varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar in most Asian countries, including Thailand and Korea, after the exchange rate depreciated during the crisis. Indonesia, however, suffered very high inflation following a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. As a result, price competitive advantage by the rupiah depreciation was lost in the real exchange rate terms. The objec...

  9. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  10. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  11. Modeling the influence of snow cover on low Arctic net ecosystem exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luus, K A; Kelly, R E J; Lin, J C; Humphreys, E R; Lafleur, P M; Oechel, W C

    2013-01-01

    The Arctic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 between the land surface and the atmosphere is influenced by the timing of snow onset and melt. The objective of this study was to examine whether uncertainty in model estimates of NEE could be reduced by representing the influence of snow on NEE using remote sensing observations of snow cover area (SCA). Observations of NEE and time-lapse images of SCA were collected over four locations at a low Arctic site (Daring Lake, NWT) in May–June 2010. Analysis of these observations indicated that SCA influences NEE, and that good agreement exists between SCA derived from time-lapse images, Landsat and MODIS. MODIS SCA was therefore incorporated into the vegetation photosynthesis respiration model (VPRM). VPRM was calibrated using observations collected in 2005 at Daring Lake. Estimates of NEE were then generated over Daring Lake and Ivotuk, Alaska (2004–2007) using VPRM formulations with and without explicit representations of the influence of SCA on respiration and/or photosynthesis. Model performance was assessed by comparing VPRM output against unfilled eddy covariance observations from Daring Lake and Ivotuk (2004–2007). The uncertainty in VPRM estimates of NEE was reduced when respiration was estimated as a function of air temperature when SCA ≤ 50% and as a function of soil temperature when SCA > 50%. (letter)

  12. Modeling net ecosystem carbon exchange of alpine grasslands with a satellite-driven model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yan

    Full Text Available Estimate of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, the balance of gross primary productivity (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco has significant importance for studying the regional and global carbon cycles. Using models driven by satellite data and climatic data is a promising approach to estimate NEE at regional scales. For this purpose, we proposed a semi-empirical model to estimate NEE in this study. In our model, the component GPP was estimated with a light response curve of a rectangular hyperbola. The component Reco was estimated with an exponential function of soil temperature. To test the feasibility of applying our model at regional scales, the temporal variations in the model parameters derived from NEE observations in an alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau were investigated. The results indicated that all the inverted parameters exhibit apparent seasonality, which is in accordance with air temperature and canopy phenology. In addition, all the parameters have significant correlations with the remote sensed vegetation indexes or environment temperature. With parameters estimated with these correlations, the model illustrated fair accuracy both in the validation years and at another alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau. Our results also indicated that the model prediction was less accurate in drought years, implying that soil moisture is an important factor affecting the model performance. Incorporating soil water content into the model would be a critical step for the improvement of the model.

  13. Partitioning net ecosystem carbon exchange into net assimilation and respiration using 13CO2 measurements: A cost-effective sampling strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    OgéE, J.; Peylin, P.; Ciais, P.; Bariac, T.; Brunet, Y.; Berbigier, P.; Roche, C.; Richard, P.; Bardoux, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.

    2003-06-01

    The current emphasis on global climate studies has led the scientific community to set up a number of sites for measuring the long-term biosphere-atmosphere net CO2 exchange (net ecosystem exchange, NEE). Partitioning this flux into its elementary components, net assimilation (FA), and respiration (FR), remains necessary in order to get a better understanding of biosphere functioning and design better surface exchange models. Noting that FR and FA have different isotopic signatures, we evaluate the potential of isotopic 13CO2 measurements in the air (combined with CO2 flux and concentration measurements) to partition NEE into FR and FA on a routine basis. The study is conducted at a temperate coniferous forest where intensive isotopic measurements in air, soil, and biomass were performed in summer 1997. The multilayer soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model MuSICA is adapted to compute 13CO2 flux and concentration profiles. Using MuSICA as a "perfect" simulator and taking advantage of the very dense spatiotemporal resolution of the isotopic data set (341 flasks over a 24-hour period) enable us to test each hypothesis and estimate the performance of the method. The partitioning works better in midafternoon when isotopic disequilibrium is strong. With only 15 flasks, i.e., two 13CO2 nighttime profiles (to estimate the isotopic signature of FR) and five daytime measurements (to perform the partitioning) we get mean daily estimates of FR and FA that agree with the model within 15-20%. However, knowledge of the mesophyll conductance seems crucial and may be a limitation to the method.

  14. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Unemployment is a big economical and social issue for each country, in particular for Albania, which is a country that comes from a centralized system where the state ensured full employment. In the struggle of applying the transition to market economy, each government had to face the two-digit levels of unemployment. Because of this, the application of the right policies in order to decrease the level of unemployment has been in the centre of the program of each government in Albania. The objective of this paper is to show if the undervaluation or overvaluation of the real exchange rate can affect in a significant way the level of employment in Albania and that to answer the question, if the real exchange rate can be used as a political instrument for the reduction of the level of unemployment. There are relatively few works that study the impact of real exchange rate on the Albanian economy and in my knowledge there is not a previous work on employment and real exchange rate relationship in Albania, so this can be considered as the first study that attempt to assess this relationship. To evaluate the link between the real exchange rate and the level of employment the Johansen procedure and Vector Error Correction Term method is used. The result of the study demonstrates not statistically significant impact of real exchange rate on level of employment, suggesting that the increase of competition of the country through the real exchange rate doesn’t improve the condition of the employment in Albania, so the Albanian government should implement other strategies to increase the level of employment in the country.

  15. Exchange rate behavior with negative interest rates: Some early negative observations

    OpenAIRE

    Hameed, Allaudeen S.; Rose, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines exchange rate behavior during the recent period with negative nominal interest rates. We use a daily panel of data on 61 currencies from January 2010 through May 2016, during which five economies - Denmark, the European Economic and Monetary Union, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland - experienced negative nominal interest rates. We examine both effective exchange rates and bilateral rates; the latter typically measured against the Swiss franc since Switzerland has had the long...

  16. Football and exchange rates: empirical support for behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eker, Gulin; Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Burak

    2007-10-01

    Recently, economic theory has been expanded to incorporate emotions, which have been assumed to play an important role in financial decisions. The present study illustrates this by showing a connection between the sports performance of popular national football teams (Besiktas, Fenerbahce, and Galatasaray) and performance of the Turkish economy. Specifically, a significant positive association was found between the success of three major professional Turkish football teams and the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar. The effect of the football success of several Turkish football teams on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira was examined using the simultaneous multiple regression model with predictor measures of wins, losses, and ties for different combinations of teams to predict the depreciation rate of the Turkish lira between the years 1987 and 2003. Wins by Turkish football teams against foreign (non-Turkish) rivals increased with exchange rate depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar.

  17. Exchange-Driven Growth with Birth Rate Less Than Death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Zhenquan; Ye Gaoxiang; Ke Jianhong

    2005-01-01

    We further study the kinetic behavior of the exchange-driven growth with birth and death for the case of birth rate kernel being less than that of death based on the mean-field theory. The symmetric exchange rate kernel is K(k,j) = K'(k,j) = Ikj υ , and the birth and death rates are proportional to the aggregate's size. The long time asymptotic behavior of the aggregate size distribution a k (t) is found to obey a much unusual scaling law with an exponentially growing scaling function Φ(x) = exp (x).

  18. Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B.

    2007-01-01

    This paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral-level, monthly data and an innovative multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors. This estimator allows for the possibility that traders' forward-looking contracting behavior might condition the way in which exchange r...

  19. The determinants of exchange rates and the movements of EUR/RON exchange rate via non-linear stochastic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrică Andreea-Cristina

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Modeling exchange rate volatility became an important topic for research debate starting with 1973, when many countries switched to floating exchange rate system. In this paper, we focus on the EUR/RON exchange rate both as an economic measure and present the implied economic links, and also as a financial investment and analyze its movements and fluctuations through two volatility stochastic processes: the Standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (GARCH and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (EGARCH. The objective of the conditional variance processes is to capture dependency in the return series of the EUR/RON exchange rate. On this account, analyzing exchange rates could be seen as the input for economic decisions regarding Romanian macroeconomics - the exchange rates being influenced by many factors such as: interest rates, inflation, trading relationships with other countries (imports and exports, or investments - portfolio optimization, risk management, asset pricing. Therefore, we talk about political stability and economic performance of a country that represents a link between the two types of inputs mentioned above and influences both the macroeconomics and the investments. Based on time-varying volatility, we examine implied volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using the standard GARCH model and the asymmetric EGARCH model, whose parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood method and the error terms follow two distributions (Normal and Student’s t. The empirical results show EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 and Student’s t error terms distribution performs better than all the estimated standard GARCH models (GARCH(1,1, GARCH(1,2, GARCH(2,1 and GARCH(2,2. This conclusion is supported by the major advantage of the EGARCH model compared to the GARCH model which consists in allowing good and bad news having different impact on the

  20. UU* filtering of nighttime net ecosystem CO2 exchange flux over forest canopy under strong wind in wintertime

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG; Junhui

    2005-01-01

    [1]Aubinet, M., Heinesch, B., Longdoz, B., Estimation of the carbon sequestration by a heterogeneous forest: night flux corrections,heterogeneity of the site and inter-annual variability, Global Change Biology, 2002, 8:1053-1071.[2]Charlotte, L.R., Nigel, T.R., Seasonal contribution of CO2 fluxes in the annual C budget of a northern bog, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2003, 171029, doi: 10.1029/20029B001889.[3]Baldocchi, D.D., Hicks, B.B., Meyers, T. P., Measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of biologically related gases with micrometeorological methods, Ecology, 1988, 69:1331-1340.[4]Baldocchi, D.D., Assessing ecosystem carbon balance: problems and prospects of the eddy covariance technique, Global change biology, 2003, 9: 478-492.[5]Canadell, J. G., Mooney, H. A., Baldocchi, D. D. et al., Carbon metabolism of the terrestrial biosphere: A multi technique approach for improved understanding, Ecosystems, 2000, 3:115-130.[6]Schmid, H. P., Footprint modeling for vegetation atmosphere exchange studies: a review and perspective, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2002, 113: 159-183.[7]Wofsy, S. C., Goulden, M. L., Munger, J. W. et al., Net exchange on CO2 in a mid-latitude forest, Science, 1993, 260: 1314-1317.[8]Massman, W. J., Lee, X. H., Eddy covariance flux corrections and uncertainties in long-term studies of carbon and energy exchanges,Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2002, 113: 121-144.[9]Baldocchi, D. D., Finnigan, J., Wilson, K. et al., On measuring net ecosystem carbon exchange over tall vegetation on complex terrain, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 2000, 96: 257-291.[10]Anthoni, P. M., Unsworth, M. H., Law, B. E. et al., Seasonal differences in carbon and water vapor exchange in young and old-growth ponderosa pine ecosystems, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2002, 111: 203-222.[11]Paw U, K. T., Baldocchi, D. D., Meyers, T. P. et al., Correction of eddy-covariance measurements incorporating both advective

  1. Empirical Correction for Differences in Chemical Exchange Rates in Hydrogen Exchange-Mass Spectrometry Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Ronald T; Mills, Brittney J; Joshi, Sangeeta B; Esfandiary, Reza; Bishop, Steven M; Middaugh, C Russell; Volkin, David B; Weis, David D

    2017-09-05

    A barrier to the use of hydrogen exchange-mass spectrometry (HX-MS) in many contexts, especially analytical characterization of various protein therapeutic candidates, is that differences in temperature, pH, ionic strength, buffering agent, or other additives can alter chemical exchange rates, making HX data gathered under differing solution conditions difficult to compare. Here, we present data demonstrating that HX chemical exchange rates can be substantially altered not only by the well-established variables of temperature and pH but also by additives including arginine, guanidine, methionine, and thiocyanate. To compensate for these additive effects, we have developed an empirical method to correct the hydrogen-exchange data for these differences. First, differences in chemical exchange rates are measured by use of an unstructured reporter peptide, YPI. An empirical chemical exchange correction factor, determined by use of the HX data from the reporter peptide, is then applied to the HX measurements obtained from a protein of interest under different solution conditions. We demonstrate that the correction is experimentally sound through simulation and in a proof-of-concept experiment using unstructured peptides under slow-exchange conditions (pD 4.5 at ambient temperature). To illustrate its utility, we applied the correction to HX-MS excipient screening data collected for a pharmaceutically relevant IgG4 mAb being characterized to determine the effects of different formulations on backbone dynamics.

  2. Unraveling net carbon exchange into its component processes of photosynthesis and respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballantyne, A.

    2017-12-01

    The recent `warming hiatus' presents an excellent opportunity to investigate climate sensitivity of carbon cycle processes. Herewe combine satellite and atmospheric observations to show that the rate of net biome productivity (NBP) has significantlyaccelerated from 0.007+/-0.065 PgC yr-2 over the warming period (1982 to 1998) to 0.119+/-0.071 PgC yr-2 over thewarminghiatus (1998-2012). This acceleration in NBP is not due to increased primary productivity, but rather reduced respiration thatis correlated (r2 0.58; P = 0.0007) and sensitive ( gamma= 4.05 to 9.40 PgC yr-1 per deg C) to land temperatures. Global landmodels do not fully capture this apparent reduced respiration over the warming hiatus; however, an empirical model includingsoil temperature and moisture observations seems to better captures the reduced respiration.

  3. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sari, Ramazan; Soytas, Ugur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond significantly (but temporarily) to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market. In conclusion, whether there are overreactions and re-adjustments or not, investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals, oil, and the euro. Policy implications are provided. (author)

  4. Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Viviana

    2007-04-01

    Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

  5. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  6. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  7. Leaf water relations and net gas exchange responses of salinized Carrizo citrange seedlings during drought stress and recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Pérez, J G; Syvertsen, J P; Botía, P; García-Sánchez, F

    2007-08-01

    Since salinity and drought stress can occur together, an assessment was made of their interacting effects on leaf water relations, osmotic adjustment and net gas exchange in seedlings of the relatively chloride-sensitive Carrizo citrange, Citrus sinensis x Poncirus trifoliata. Plants were fertilized with nutrient solution with or without additional 100 mm NaCl (salt and no-salt treatments). After 7 d, half of the plants were drought stressed by withholding irrigation water for 10 d. Thus, there were four treatments: salinized and non-salinized plants under drought-stress or well-watered conditions. After the drought period, plants from all stressed treatments were re-watered with nutrient solution without salt for 8 d to study recovery. Leaf water relations, gas exchange parameters, chlorophyll fluorescence, proline, quaternary ammonium compounds and leaf and root concentrations of Cl(-) and Na(+) were measured. Salinity increased leaf Cl(-) and Na(+) concentrations and decreased osmotic potential (Psi(pi)) such that leaf relative water content (RWC) was maintained during drought stress. However, in non-salinized drought-stressed plants, osmotic adjustment did not occur and RWC decreased. The salinity-induced osmotic adjustment was not related to any accumulation of proline, quaternary ammonium compounds or soluble sugars. Net CO(2) assimilation rate (A(CO2)) was reduced in leaves from all stressed treatments but the mechanisms were different. In non-salinized drought-stressed plants, lower A(CO2) was related to low RWC, whereas in salinized plants decreased A(CO2) was related to high levels of leaf Cl(-) and Na(+). A(CO2) recovered after irrigation in all the treatments except in previously salinized drought-stressed leaves which had lower RWC and less chlorophyll but maintained high levels of Cl(-), Na(+) and quaternary ammonium compounds after recovery. High leaf levels of Cl(-) and Na(+) after recovery apparently came from the roots. Plants preconditioned by

  8. Impact of cloudiness on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide in different types of forest ecosystems in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zhang

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Clouds can significantly affect carbon exchange process between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing the quantity and quality of solar radiation received by ecosystem's surface and other environmental factors. In this study, we analyzed the effects of cloudiness on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE in a temperate broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest at Changbaishan (CBS and a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest at Dinghushan (DHS, based on the flux data obtained during June–August from 2003 to 2006. The results showed that the response of NEE of forest ecosystems to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR differed under clear skies and cloudy skies. Compared with clear skies, the light-saturated maximum photosynthetic rate (Pec,max at CBS under cloudy skies during mid-growing season (from June to August increased by 34%, 25%, 4% and 11% in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. In contrast, Pec,max of the forest ecosystem at DHS was higher under clear skies than under cloudy skies from 2004 to 2006. When the clearness index (kt ranged between 0.4 and 0.6, the NEE reached its maximum at both CBS and DHS. However, the NEE decreased more dramatically at CBS than at DHS when kt exceeded 0.6. The results indicate that cloudy sky conditions are beneficial to net carbon uptake in the temperate forest ecosystem and the subtropical forest ecosystem. Under clear skies, vapor pressure deficit (VPD and air temperature increased due to strong light. These environmental conditions led to greater decrease in gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP and greater increase in ecosystem respiration (Re at CBS than at DHS. As a result, clear sky conditions caused more reduction of NEE in the temperate forest ecosystem than in the subtropical forest ecosystem. The response of NEE of different forest ecosystems to the changes in

  9. Evaluation and inversion of a net ecosystem carbon exchange model for grasslands and croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, M.; Klosterhalfen, A.; Weihermueller, L.; Graf, A.; Schmidt, M.; Huisman, J. A.; Vereecken, H.

    2017-12-01

    A one-dimensional soil water, heat, and CO2 flux model (SOILCO2), a pool concept of soil carbon turnover (RothC), and a crop growth module (SUCROS) was coupled to predict the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon. This model, further referred to as AgroC, was extended with routines for managed grassland as well as for root exudation and root decay. In a first step, the coupled model was applied to two winter wheat sites and one upland grassland site in Germany. The model was calibrated based on soil water content, soil temperature, biometric, and soil respiration measurements for each site, and validated in terms of hourly NEE measured with the eddy covariance technique. The overall model performance of AgroC was acceptable with a model efficiency >0.78 for NEE. In a second step, AgroC was optimized with the eddy covariance NEE measurements to examine the effect of various objective functions, constraints, and data-transformations on estimated NEE, which showed a distinct sensitivity to the choice of objective function and the inclusion of soil respiration data in the optimization process. Both, day and nighttime fluxes, were found to be sensitive to the selected optimization strategy. Additional consideration of soil respiration measurements improved the simulation of small positive fluxes remarkably. Even though the model performance of the selected optimization strategies did not diverge substantially, the resulting annual NEE differed substantially. We conclude that data-transformation, definition of objective functions, and data sources have to be considered cautiously when using a terrestrial ecosystem model to determine carbon balances by means of eddy covariance measurements.

  10. Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 with Rapidly Changing High Arctic Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmerton, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    High Arctic landscapes are expansive and changing rapidly. However our understanding of their functional responses and potential to mitigate or enhance anthropogenic climate change is limited by few measurements. We collected eddy covariance measurements to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 with polar semidesert and meadow wetland landscapes at the highest-latitude location measured to date (82°N). We coupled these rare data with ground and satellite vegetation production measurements (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to evaluate the effectiveness of upscaling local to regional NEE. During the growing season, the dry polar semidesert landscape was a near zero sink of atmospheric CO2 (NEE: -0.3±13.5 g C m-2). A nearby meadow wetland accumulated over two magnitudes more carbon (NEE: -79.3±20.0 g C m-2) than the polar semidesert landscape, and was similar to meadow wetland NEE at much more southern latitudes. Polar semidesert NEE was most influenced by moisture, with wetter surface soils resulting in greater soil respiration and CO2 emissions. At the meadow wetland, soil heating enhanced plant growth, which in turn increased CO2 uptake. Our upscaling assessment found that polar semidesert NDVI measured on site was low (mean: 0.120-0.157) and similar to satellite measurements (mean: 0.155-0.163). However, weak plant growth resulted in poor satellite NDVI-NEE relationships and created challenges for remotely-detecting changes in the cycling of carbon on the polar semidesert landscape. The meadow wetland appeared more suitable to assess plant production and NEE via remote-sensing, however high Arctic wetland extent is constrained by topography to small areas that may be difficult to resolve with large satellite pixels. We predict that until summer precipitation and humidity increases substantially, climate-related changes of dry high Arctic landscapes may be restricted by poor soil moisture retention, and therefore have some inertia against

  11. Build to order and entry/exit strategies under exchange rate uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Chin-Tsai

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Under uncertainty of exchange rate, we extend the build to order production model of Lin et al. (2002 by considering the export-oriented manufacturer to make decisions to switch production location freely between domestic and foreign ones. The export-oriented manufacturer is risk neutral and has rational expectations. When we transfer the production location from domestic (foreign to foreign (domestic, and the production location transferring cost and the drift of real exchange rate are both equal to zero, then the optimal entry and exit threshold value of Cobb-Douglas production function are equal, no matter whether we use real options or net present value method. Thus export-oriented manufacturer can make decisions at the optimal transfer threshold value for transferable locations wherever the production locations are. It provides the export-oriented manufacturer with another way of thinking.

  12. Currency wars, what drives the wild fluctuations in exchange rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Petridis, George; Πετρίδης, Γεώργιος

    2016-01-01

    Currency wars or competitive devaluation has change dramatically throughout history. The meaning of currency wars is completely different in comparison with that before the change of currency rates system. Firstly, in my thesis, there will be a brief history of currency wars and a reference of quantitative easing in US, Europe and Japan. Then the factors which determine the currency exchange rates and the reasons for the wild fluctuation in currency rates during a currency war will be mention...

  13. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...... that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial solvency (value...

  14. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  15. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de [Institute of Physics, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília DF 70910-900 (Brazil); Fonseca, Regina C.B. da [Department of Mathematics, Instituto Federal de Goiás, Goiânia GO 74055-110 (Brazil); Gleria, Iram, E-mail: iram@fis.ufal.br [Institute of Physics, Federal University of Alagoas, Brazil, Maceió AL 57072-900 (Brazil)

    2013-10-01

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers–Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  16. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; de Castro, Marcio T.; da Fonseca, Regina C. B.; Gleria, Iram

    2013-10-01

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers-Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  17. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  18. Exchange rate policy when the labour market exhibits hysteresis

    OpenAIRE

    Barry, Frank

    1994-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate shocks in a small open economy whose labor market exhibits hysteresis. The model is used to highlight deficiencies in the response of the Irish authorities to exchange rate crisis of 1992/93. A secondary purpose of the paper, though, is to induce those who accept that the Irish labour market is characterised by hysteresis but who reject the argument made here that a more aggressive devaluation should have been pursued, to spell out the labour-m...

  19. Exchange rate volatility effects on export competitiveness. Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca GHERMAN

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we determine and analyze the impact of the exchange rate variation over the international trade of Romania. We highlighted the sense of the relationship between exchange rate and exports or imports, but the intensity between the variables and the lags that characterize the interdependency between them. In the context of actual great imbalances in the global economy and other risks (financial, political or social that drive to the decrease in aggregate demand on global level, we consider that external competitivity became one of the key variable for the economic growth in Romania like an integrated process in the European economy.

  20. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de; Fonseca, Regina C.B. da; Gleria, Iram

    2013-01-01

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers–Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  1. CONTINUOUS MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OF USD VERSUS TRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakup Arı

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY. These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation Lévy-driven processes. We have shown that CAR(1 and COGARCH(1,1 processes are proper models to represent foreign exchange rate of USD and TRY for different periods of time February 2002- June 2010.

  2. Forecasting exchange rates; Kawase yosoku no riron to jissai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiuchi, T. [The Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-20

    This paper explains the theory and practice of foreign exchange rate fluctuation. It also explains various factors that constitute the reasons for the difficulty of forecasting the fluctuation in a short to medium period of time as a practical problem, even though forecasting it over a long period of time may be possible theoretically. Export, of which payment received in dollars cannot be used unless exchanged to yen, forms the yen buying demand. Increase in export and trade surplus turns into pressure for the yen appreciation after all. The amounts of exports and imports depend on such fundamentals as productivity and inflation in the country, as well as the cycle of strong business conditions and recession. Staggering of business conditions in Japan and the U.S. causes trade imbalance and fluctuation in foreign exchange rates. Attempts of grabbing the basic tone of the foreign exchange rates upon equalizing the business conditions in both countries is the purchasing power parity theory, which in fact can explain the long-term fluctuations in the past data. However, in the actual scenes where forecasting over a short to medium period is demanded, the forecasting actions are disturbed by such factors lying complexly as exports and imports of capitals, that is the capital circulation in long and short periods, foreign exchange tradings, and difference in interests inside and outside the country. 3 figs.

  3. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  4. Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stosic, Darko; Stosic, Dusan; Ludermir, Teresa; de Oliveira, Wilson; Stosic, Tatijana

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the effects of financial crises on foreign exchange (FX) markets, where entropy evolution is measured for different exchange rates, using the time-dependent block entropy method. Empirical results suggest that financial crises are associated with significant increase of exchange rate entropy, reflecting instability in FX market dynamics. In accordance with phenomenological expectations, it is found that FX markets with large liquidity and large trading volume are more inert - they recover quicker from a crisis than markets with small liquidity and small trading volume. Moreover, our numerical analysis shows that periods of economic uncertainty are preceded by periods of low entropy values, which may serve as a tool for anticipating the onset of financial crises.

  5. Exchange rates of creatine kinase metabolites: feasibility of imaging creatine by chemical exchange saturation transfer MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haris, Mohammad; Nanga, Ravi Prakash Reddy; Singh, Anup; Cai, Kejia; Kogan, Feliks; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

    2012-11-01

    Creatine (Cr), phosphocreatine (PCr) and adenosine-5-triphosphate (ATP) are major metabolites of the enzyme creatine kinase (CK). The exchange rate of amine protons of CK metabolites at physiological conditions has been limited. In the current study, the exchange rate and logarithmic dissociation constant (pKa) of amine protons of CK metabolites were calculated. Further, the chemical exchange saturation transfer effect (CEST) of amine protons of CK metabolites with bulk water was explored. At physiological temperature and pH, the exchange rate of amine protons in Cr was found to be 7-8 times higher than PCr and ATP. A higher exchange rate in Cr was associated with lower pKa value, suggesting faster dissociation of its amine protons compared to PCr and ATP. CEST MR imaging of these metabolites in vitro in phantoms displayed predominant CEST contrast from Cr and negligible contribution from PCr and ATP with the saturation pulse parameters used in the current study. These results provide a new method to perform high-resolution proton imaging of Cr without contamination from PCr. Potential applications of these finding are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Alarming of exchange rate crisis: A risk management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, with increasing volatility of foreign exchange rate, risk management becomes more and more important not only for multinational companies and individuals but also for central governments. This paper attempts to build an econometrics model so as to forecast and manage risks in foreign exchange market, especially during the eve of turbulent periods. By following McNeil and Frey’s (2000 two stage approach called conditional EVT to estimate dynamic VaR commonly used in stock and insurance markets, we extend it by applying a more general asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model to analyze daily foreign exchange dollar-denominated trading data from four countries of different development levels across Asia and Europe for a period of more than 10 years from January 03, 2005 to May 29, 2015, which is certainly representative of global markets. Conventionally, different kinds of backtesting methods are implemented ultimately to evaluate how well the model behaves. Inspiringly, test results show that by taking several specific characteristics (including fat-tails, asymmetry and long-range dependence of the foreign exchange market return data into consideration, the violation ratio of out-of-sample data can be forecasted very well for both fixed and flexible foreign exchange regimes. Moreover, all of the violations are evenly distributed along the whole period which indicates another favorable property of our model. Meanwhile, we find evidence of asymmetry volatility in all of the studied foreign exchange markets even though the magnitudes of the most of them are weak

  7. Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veestraeten, D.

    2013-01-01

    This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage

  8. Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veestraeten, D.

    2012-01-01

    This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage

  9. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  10. Volatility Analysis of Exchange Rate of Emerging Economies: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study is to analyze the volatility of exchange rates of the currencies of the five East African Community (EAC) countries. Time series modeling is applied to the data of these countries. Various models were fitted and compared using Maximum Likelihood approach in order to select the best fitting model for each ...

  11. exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eyerusalem

    degree of pass-through is estimated by the means of impulse response functions. ..... through from exchange rate fluctuations to each stage of the distribution chain ..... exclusion test (which is asymptotically chi-square distributed) and the results ...... Endogenous variables: DLWCPI YGap DLNEER DLMPI DLCPI DLM2. Root.

  12. Exchange Rate Reform Policies and Trade Balances in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates the effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance in Nigeria between 1970 and 2012. Annual data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Statistical Bulletin, and World Development Indicator of the World Bank. Co-integrating and Error Correcting Method were used for this estimation.

  13. Introducing False EUR and False EUR exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, M.; Ivanova, K.

    2000-10-01

    The Euro ( EUR) is a new currency introduced by the European Community. Its exchange rate is very puzzling. We have invented a false Euro ( FEUR) dating back to 1993 and have derived the exchange rates of the FEUR with respect to currencies not belonging to the EUR, i.e., DKK, CHF, JPY and USD. This allows us to search for correlations between the fluctuations preexisting to the introduction of EUR and present ones in such financial data. The detrended fluctuation analysis ( DFA) statistical method is used. This leads to assume a power-law behavior, i.e., a scaling hypothesis, through an exponent α. The latter has demonstrated its usefulness for the investigations of long-range power-law correlations in several types of financial sequences. Our findings show that the α exponent interestingly characterizes fractional Brownian motion of the currency exchange rates between EUR and DKK over a 25 day interval, and usual Brownian motion otherwise and for the three other investigated exchange rates. We can devise an investment strategy based on the localα technique and obtain appreciable gains for the time being.

  14. Emission trading in Europe with an exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klassen, G.A.J.; Amann, M.; Foersund, F.R.

    1994-01-01

    The analytical and empirical properties of a new method for emission trading according to a fixed exchange rate are explored. The exchange rate is based on the ratios of the marginal costs of abatement in the optimal solution in order to account for the impact of the location of emission sources on the deposition. It is shown that, generally, this system will not achieve the optimal solution and does not guarantee that environmental deposition constraints are not violated, although total abatement costs are always reduced. A routine was developed to mimic trading as a bilateral, sequential process, subject to an exchange rate. Use has been made of an adapted version of the optimization module in the RAINS (REgional Acidification INformation and Simulation) model. In the example used, results for SO 2 emissions in Europe show that, starting from a uniform reduction, exchange-rate trading achieves higher cost savings than one-to-one trading, without achieving the cost minimum. Sulfur deposition targets are not violated since the initial emission allocation overfulfilled targets at many places. The results are sensitive to: pre-trade emission levels, the transaction costs, the availability of information on potential cost savings and assumptions made on the behavior of trading partners. 6 figs., 3 tabs., 28 refs

  15. The limiting distribution of extremal exchange rate yields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.A.B. Hols (Martien); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractSeveral nonnested fat-tailed distributions have been advocated for modelling exchange rate returns. Instead of directly estimating these nonnested distributions we investigate the extremal distribution of the returns. The advantage is that the parameter which characterizes the amount of

  16. Exchange rate volatility and regime change: Visegrad comparison

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Valachy, J.

    -, č. 7 (2006), s. 1-36 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/06/1293 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : exchange rate regime s * volatility * transition Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/21616/1/IPC-working-paper-007-KocendaValachy.pdf

  17. Exchange rate movement and import price of Machineries in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The empirical estimates reveal that one lag variability of import price, exchange rate, foreign cost, domestic competitors price and demand pressure proxied by GDP impact it in the long-run. However, the ECM coefficient is properly signed with -0.549. By implication, approximately 54% of the discrepancy from long run ...

  18. Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Exchange rate policies have to be used along with the fiscal and monetary instruments to get meaningful results. This implies that our balance of payments problems can be solved simultaneously from two angles, namely, boosting supply and managing demand. Export diversification and promotion, import substitution and ...

  19. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By

  20. In-situ real time measurements of net erosion rates of copper during hydrogen plasma exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesler, Leigh; Wright, Graham; Peterson, Ethan; Whyte, Dennis

    2013-10-01

    In order to properly understand the dynamics of net erosion/deposition in fusion reactors, such as tokamaks, a diagnostic measuring the real time rates of net erosion/deposition during plasma exposure is necessary. The DIONISOS experiment produces real time measurements of net erosion/deposition by using Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy (RBS) ion beam analysis simultaneously with plasma exposure from a helicon plasma source. This in-situ method improves on ex-situ weight loss measurements by allowing measurement of possible synergistic effects of high ion implantation rates and net erosion rate and by giving a real time response to changes in plasma parameters. Previous work has validated this new technique for measuring copper (Cu) erosion from helium (He) plasma ion bombardment. This technique is now extended to measure copper erosion due to deuterium and hydrogen plasma ion exposure. Targets used were a 1.5 μm Cu layer on an aluminum substrate. Cu layer thickness is tracked in real time using 1.2 MeV proton RBS. Measured erosion rates will be compared to results from literature and He erosion rates. Supported by US DoE award DE-SC00-02060.

  1. Analisis Determinan Net Ekspor Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Daulay, Rahmawaty

    2010-01-01

    This study is to analyzing empirically among Indonesia GDP, trade partnership GDP (Malaysia, Singapore, US and Thailand) and real exchange rate toward Indonesia Net Export. To find out which one from those three variables is significant in order to fluctuating (increasing or decreasing) Indonesia Net Export either in the short run or in the long run. Data collection is obtained using secondary data, namely Indonesia GDP, Malaysia GDP, Singapura GDP, US GDP, Thailand GDP and real exchange rate...

  2. Incentives from Exchange Rate Regimes in an Institutional Context

    OpenAIRE

    Goyal, Ashima

    2008-01-01

    In a simple open economy macromodel, calibrated to the typical institutions and shocks of a densely populated emerging market economy, it is shown that a monetary stimulus preceding a temporary supply shock can abort inflation at minimum output cost, since of the appreciation of exchange rates, accompanying a fall in interest rates and rise in output. Analytic results obtained for two periods are generalized through simulations and validated through estimation. The results imply that one inst...

  3. Empirically constrained estimates of Alaskan regional Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2, 2012-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commane, R.; Lindaas, J.; Benmergui, J. S.; Luus, K. A.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, S. M.; Henderson, J.; Karion, A.; Miller, J. B.; Sweeney, C.; Miller, C. E.; Lin, J. C.; Oechel, W. C.; Zona, D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iwata, H.; Ueyama, M.; Harazono, Y.; Veraverbeke, S.; Randerson, J. T.; Daube, B. C.; Pittman, J. V.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    We present data-driven estimates of the regional net ecosystem exchange of CO2 across Alaska for three years (2012-2014) derived from CARVE (Carbon in the Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment) aircraft measurements. Integrating optimized estimates of annual NEE, we find that the Alaskan region was a small sink of CO2 during 2012 and 2014, but a significant source of CO2 in 2013, even before including emissions from the large forest fire season during 2013. We investigate the drivers of this interannual variability, and the larger spring and fall emissions of CO2 in 2013. To determine the optimized fluxes, we couple the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, to produce footprints of surface influence that we convolve with a remote-sensing driven model of NEE across Alaska, the Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (Polar-VPRM). For each month we calculate a spatially explicit additive flux (ΔF) by minimizing the difference between the measured profiles of the aircraft CO2 data and the modeled profiles, using a framework that combines a uniform correction at regional scales and a Bayesian inversion of residuals at smaller scales. A rigorous estimate of total uncertainty (including atmospheric transport, measurement error, etc.) was made with a combination of maximum likelihood estimation and Monte Carlo error propagation. Our optimized fluxes are consistent with other measurements on multiple spatial scales, including CO2 mixing ratios from the CARVE Tower near Fairbanks and eddy covariance flux towers in both boreal and tundra ecosystems across Alaska. For times outside the aircraft observations (Dec-April) we use the un-optimized polar-VPRM, which has shown good agreement with both tall towers and eddy flux data outside the growing season. This approach allows us to robustly estimate the annual CO2 budget for Alaska and investigate the drivers of both the

  4. Direct and indirect effects of climatic variations on the interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange across terrestrial ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjiong Shao

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Climatic variables not only directly affect the interannual variability (IAV in net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE but also indirectly drive it by changing the physiological parameters. Identifying these direct and indirect paths can reveal the underlying mechanisms of carbon (C dynamics. In this study, we applied a path analysis using flux data from 65 sites to quantify the direct and indirect climatic effects on IAV in NEE and to evaluate the potential relationships among the climatic variables and physiological parameters that represent physiology and phenology of ecosystems. We found that the maximum photosynthetic rate was the most important factor for the IAV in gross primary productivity (GPP, which was mainly induced by the variation in vapour pressure deficit. For ecosystem respiration (RE, the most important drivers were GPP and the reference respiratory rate. The biome type regulated the direct and indirect paths, with distinctive differences between forests and non-forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests, and between grasslands and croplands. Different paths were also found among wet, moist and dry ecosystems. However, the climatic variables can only partly explain the IAV in physiological parameters, suggesting that the latter may also result from other biotic and disturbance factors. In addition, the climatic variables related to NEE were not necessarily the same as those related to GPP and RE, indicating the emerging difficulty encountered when studying the IAV in NEE. Overall, our results highlight the contribution of certain physiological parameters to the IAV in C fluxes and the importance of biome type and multi-year water conditions, which should receive more attention in future experimental and modelling research.

  5. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Radiochemistry

    2016-11-01

    Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO{sub 3}) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of {sup 14}C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  6. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka

    2016-01-01

    Radiocarbon ( 14 C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO 3 ) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of 14 C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  7. Spatial variation in tuber depletion by swans explained by differences in net intake rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; Langevoord, O; Bevan, RM; Engelaar, KR; Klaassen, M; Mulder, RJW

    We tested whether the spatial variation in resource depletion by Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus) foraging on belowground tubers of sage pondweed (Potnmogeton pectinatus) was caused by differences in net energy intake rates. The variation in giving up densities within the confines of one lake was

  8. Long-memory exchange rate dynamics in the euro era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkoulas, John T.; Barilla, Anthony G.; Wells, William

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the long-run dynamics of a system of eight major exchange rates in the euro era using both integer and fractional cointegration methodologies. Contrary to the fragile evidence in the pre-euro era, robust evidence of linear cointegratedness is obtained in the foreign exchange market during the euro era. Upon closer examination, deviations from the cointegrating relationship exhibit nonstationary, long-memory dynamic behavior (Joseph effect). We find the long-memory evidence to be temporally stable in the most recent era. Finally, the foreign exchange system dynamics appears to be characterized by less persistence (smaller fractional exponent) in the euro era (as compared to pre-euro time periods), potentially indicating increased policy coordination by central banks in the recent period.

  9. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action generated macro - financial stability in terms of inflation and price fluctuation. However, in terms of microeconomic aspects, the unilateral adaptation of Euro as the official currency of Kosovo failed to provide microeconomic advantages such as to export stimulation, and so forth. The main exchange rate regime systems were discussed focusing in their advantages and disadvantages, and it was concluded that there is no commonly accepted theory regarding the optimality of exchange rate regimes. In addition, the global financial crisis impact in the financial system of Kosovo is also discussed and it was found that negative impacts of global financial crisis were moderate and indirect.

  10. Effectiveness of high interest rate policy on exchange rates: A reexamination of the Asian financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin Diew Lai

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most controversial issues in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of monetary policy to a sharp decline in the value of some currencies. In this paper, we empirically examine the effects on Asian exchange rates of sharply higher interest rates during the Asian financial crisis. Taking account of the currency contagion effect, our results indicate that sharply higher interest rates helped to support the exchange rates of South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. For Malaysia, no significant causal relation is found from the rate of interest to exchange rates, as the authorities in Malaysia did not actively adopt a high interest rate policy to defend the currency.

  11. Sensitivity of molecular vibrational dynamics to energy exchange rate constants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billing, G D; Coletti, C; Kurnosov, A K; Napartovich, A P

    2003-01-01

    The sensitivity of molecular vibrational population dynamics, governing the CO laser operated in fundamental and overtone transitions, to vibration-to-vibration rate constants is investigated. With this aim, three rate constant sets have been used, differing in their completeness (i.e. accounting for single-quantum exchange only, or for multi-quantum exchange with a limited number of rate constants obtained by semiclassical calculations, and, finally, with an exhaustive set of rate constants including asymmetric exchange processes, as well) and in the employed interaction potential. The most complete set among these three is introduced in this paper. An existing earlier kinetic model was updated to include the latter new data. Comparison of data produced by kinetic modelling with the above mentioned sets of rate constants shows that the vibrational distribution function, and, in particular, the CO overtone laser characteristics, are very sensitive to the choice of the model. The most complete model predicts slower evolution of the vibrational distribution, in qualitative agreement with experiments

  12. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... sheet interest rate and foreign exchange rate contracts: a. Interest Rate Contracts i. Single currency... Contracts i. Cross-currency interest rate swaps. ii. Forward foreign exchange rate contracts. iii. Currency... contracts traded on exchanges that require daily payment of variation margins are excluded from the minimum...

  13. Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia: Intra-regional Transmissions of Exchange Rate Policies after the Crisis (in Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    OHNO Sanae; FUKUDA Shin-ichi

    2003-01-01

    Since the onset of the Asian crisis, what characterizes the East Asian exchange rates has been a topic of considerable discussion. In the pre-crisis period, the de facto pegs to the U.S. dollar sometimes destabilized the real "effective" exchange rates of these currencies. Several economists have, thus, proposed the desirability of intermediate exchange rate regimes in East Asia that might stabilize their effective exchange rates. The post-crisis experience in East Asia, however, taught us th...

  14. Exchange rate policy, growth, and foreign trade in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gligorić Mirjana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes a hot topic: the influence of an undervalued currency on macroeconomic variables - primarily on the economic growth and trade balance of a country, but also on employment, foreign exchange reserves, competition, and living standards. It also reviews and explains the consequences of yuan undervaluation, points out the need for its appreciation, and states the negative effects that stem from this measure. Special attention is given to the problematic bilateral relations between China and the USA and the reasons why Americans are worried about the exchange rate policy that China implements. Although yuan appreciation would decrease the American foreign trade deficit, it also raises the question of further financing of the American deficit. There are also other problems that the possible appreciation would cause for the American economy, due to the effect of J-curve, passthrough, larger costs of input imported from China, etc. Therefore, Chinese foreign exchange policy is an important subject, but it is not the solution to the problems of the global economy - which have deeper roots than that. However, there is no excuse for China implementing unfair exchange rate policies, or replacing such policies with controversial protectionist policies (as some authors have suggested.

  15. The Influence of Herbivory on the net rate of Increase of Gypsy Moth Abundance: A Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

     Harry T.  Valentine

    1983-01-01

    A differential equation model of gypsy moth abundance, average larval dry weight, and food abundance was used to analyze the effects of changes in foliar chemistry on the net per capita rate of increase in a gypsy moth population. If relative consumption rate per larva is unaffected by herbivory, a reduction in the nutritional value of foliage reduces the net rate of...

  16. Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saang Joon Baak

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports among 14 Asia Pacific countries, where various measures to raise the intra-region trade are being implemented. Specifically, this paper estimates a gravity model, in which the dependent variable is the product of the exports of two trading countries. In addition, it also estimates a unilateral exports model, in which the dependent variable is not the product of the exports of two trading countries but the exports from one country to another. By doing this, the depreciation rate of the exporting country's currency value can be included as one of the explanatory variables affecting the volume of exports. As the explanatory variables of the export volume, the gravity model adopts the product of the GDPs of two trading counties, their bilateral exchange rate volatility, their distance, a time trend and dummies for the share of the border line, the use of the same language, and the APEC membership. In the case of the unilateral exports model, the product of the GDPs is replaced by the GDP of the importing country, and the depreciation rate of the exporting country's currency value is dded. In addition, considering that the export volume will also depend on various onditions of the exporting country, dummies for exporting countries are also included as an explanatory variable. The empirical tests, using annual data for the period from 1980 to 2002, detect a significant negative impact of exchange rate volatility on the volume of exports. In addition, various tests using the data for sub-sample periods indicate that the negative impact had been weakened since 1989, when APEC had launched, and surged again from 1997, when the Asian financial crisis broke out. This finding implies that the impact of exchange rate volatility is time-dependent and that it is significantlynegative at least in the present time. This phenomenon is noticed regardless which estimation

  17. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... expectations, one should mostly observe contemporaneous correlations, not one-directional cross-predictability from one variable toward the other. Using three different data sets and various econometric techniques, we do find the contemporaneous correlations as predicted by the financial asset view......-averaged prices in the commodity index data that they use (price averaging induces spurious autocorrelation and predictability) and to features in their test procedures....

  18. Hybrid empirical mode decomposition- ARIMA for forecasting exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadan, Siti Sarah; Shabri, Ani; Ismail, Shuhaida

    2015-02-01

    This paper studied the forecasting of monthly Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)/ United State Dollar (USD) exchange rates using the hybrid of two methods which are the empirical model decomposition (EMD) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). MYR is pegged to USD during the Asian financial crisis causing the exchange rates are fixed to 3.800 from 2nd of September 1998 until 21st of July 2005. Thus, the chosen data in this paper is the post-July 2005 data, starting from August 2005 to July 2010. The comparative study using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) showed that the EMD-ARIMA outperformed the single-ARIMA and the random walk benchmark model.

  19. Asymmetric cointegration between exchange rate and trade balance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhaji Jibrilla Aliyu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the long-run pass through of the official exchange rates into trade balance in Nigeria by means of threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction modeling. The study provides evidence for non-linear cointegration between our variables of interest. The estimated asymmetric error correction models provide new evidence for slower transmission of exchange rate depreciations into the country’s trade balance, which in turn appears to offer partial support for the Dutch disease hypothesis. This finding suggests that policy-makers cannot hope to use currency devaluation to improve the trade balance. It is recommended that policy-makers focus attention on diversification of the economy away from dependence on crude oil exports into productive manufacturing and non-oil exports, which will be vital in making the economy more competitive.

  20. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  1. THE IMPACT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ON THE COMMERCIALS FLOWS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela IAVORSCHI

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The liberalization of capital movements between states and of the trade of goods and services, are one of the most important phenomena in the current world economy. The purpose of the present study, in the case of Romania, is to answer the question whether the interventions by means of the exchange rate of the national currency contributes to the fluidization and improvement of the commercial trades. The study demonstrates that the leu devaluation does not lead to a substantial increase of the exports. As a mechanism of influence of the commercials flows, the exchange rate has a short-term influence and the economy requires structural reforms, meant to stimulate the growth of the economic competitiveness.

  2. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  3. Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank...

  4. Exchange rate policy and external debt in emerging economies: an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cebir, Bilgen

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis, we empirically analyze the e ects of exchange rate policy on external debt accumulation in emerging market economies with a sample of 15 countries over the period 1998-2010. The exchange rate policy is captured by the de facto exchange rate classi cation of Ilzetzki, Reinhart, and Rogo (2008). This classification is based on the actual exchange rate behavior rather than the officially declared regimes. Therefore, it is expected to better reflect the exchange rate policies act...

  5. Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rates, and G-7 Sectoral Trade Balances

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen S. Golub

    1994-01-01

    This paper uses a Ricardian framework to clarify the role of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors governing the time series and cross-section behavior of sectoral trade balances. Unit labor costs and trade balances are calculated for several sectors for the seven major industrial countries. The time series and cross-section variation in sectoral unit labor costs is decomposed into relative productivity, wage differentials, and exchange rate variations. The main findings are that changes ov...

  6. Endogenous trade participation with incomplete exchange rate pass-through

    OpenAIRE

    Imura, Yuko

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the implications of endogenous trade participation for international business cycles, trade flow dynamics and exchange rate pass-through when price adjustments are staggered across firms. I develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model wherein firms make state-dependent decisions on entry and exit in the export market and the frequency of price adjustment is time-dependent. Consistent with recent empirical findings, producers of traded goods in thi...

  7. Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Investment in Asean Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Lily, Jaratin; Kogid, Mori; Mulok, Dullah; Thien Sang, Lim; Asid, Rozilee

    2014-01-01

    The inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) are important for a country's economic development, but the world market for FDI has become more competitive. This paper empirically analyses the exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI) relationship using annual data on ASEAN economies, that is, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. By employing ARDL bounds test approach, the empirical results show the existence of significant long-run cointegration between excha...

  8. Discrete exchange rate changes with real wage resistance

    OpenAIRE

    Tapio Palokangas

    1992-01-01

    Fixed exchange rate policy is examined when money wages are determined by collective bargaining for fixed periods. The main results are as follows. If the interest elasticity of aggregate demand is high and the contract periods in the labour market are long, then in the short run, a devaluation produces expansion but in the long run, contraction. Expectations on a future devaluation cause expansion before the occurrence of the devaluation and at the moment of the occurrence, domestic expendit...

  9. Predicting High Frequency Exchange Rates using Machine Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Palikuca, Aleksandar; Seidl,, Timo

    2016-01-01

    This thesis applies a committee of Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines on high-dimensional, high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data in an effort to predict directional market movements on up to a 60 second prediction horizon. The study shows that combining multiple classifiers into a committee produces improved precision relative to the best individual committee members and outperforms previously reported results. A trading simulation implementing the committee classifier...

  10. Essays on Currency Competition, Institutional Restrictions and Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Bhattacharya, Arghya

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on currency competition, institutional restrictions and exchange rates. When faced with currency competition, a country's government has two tools at its disposal: reduce the level of inflation or place institutional barriers to the use of foreign currency. In the first chapter, I propose a two-country, two-currency New Monetarist model to study currency competition. I model institutional barriers as a `tax' on the real value of foreign currency hol...

  11. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    OpenAIRE

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantag...

  12. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantages – to capture some of the benefits of both extremes while avoiding many of the costs. However today many experts predicted that exchange rate regimes would move in a "bipolar" manner to the extremes of "hard" pegs or free floats. An increasing number of countries did announce their intent to allow greater exchange rate flexibility. But, in practice, countries had a "fear of floating ". Distinction is made among advanced, emerging and other developing countries. Emerging markets have stronger links to international capital markets than do other developing economies. Thus, while non-emerging market developing economies may gain credibility through pegging their exchange rates, emerging markets find it harder to do so and could benefit from investing in "learning to float". More advanced economies with their access to international capital market are best positioned to enjoy the benefits of flexibility. It is found that the proportion of countries adopting intermediate regimes has indeed been shrinking in favor of greater flexibility or greater fixity, especially for countries more integrated with international markets. But, there is no final conclusion on the idea that intermediate regimes will dissapear.

  13. Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and carbon balance for eight temperate organic soils under agricultural management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsgaard, Lars; Görres, C.-M.; Hoffmann, Carl Christian

    2012-01-01

    This study presents the first annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and net ecosystem carbon balances (NECB) of contrasting Danish agricultural peatlands. Studies were done at eight sites representing permanent grasslands (PG) and rotational (RT) arable soils cropped to barley......, potato or forage grasses in three geo-regional settings. Using an advanced flux-chamber technique, NEE was derived from modelling of ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary production (GPP) with temperature and photosynthetically active radiation as driving variables. At PG (n = 3) and RT (n = 5......) sites, NEE (mean ± standard error, SE) was 5.1 ± 0.9 and 8.6 ± 2.0 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, respectively, but with the overall lowest value observed for potato cropping (3.5 Mg C ha−1 yr−1). This was partly attributed to a short-duration vegetation period and drying of the soil especially in potato ridges. NECB...

  14. Optimal Foreign Exchange Rate Intervention in Lévy Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masimba Aspinas Mutakaya

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers an exchange rate problem in Lévy markets, where the Central Bank has to intervene. We assume that, in the absence of control, the exchange rate evolves according to Brownian motion with a jump component. The Central Bank is allowed to intervene in order to keep the exchange rate as close as possible to a prespecified target value. The interventions by the Central Bank are associated with costs. We present the situation as an impulse control problem, where the objective of the bank is to minimize the intervention costs. In particular, the paper extends the model by Huang, 2009, to incorporate a jump component. We formulate and prove an optimal verification theorem for the impulse control. We then propose an impulse control and construct a value function and then verify that they solve the quasivariational inequalities. Our results suggest that if the expected number of jumps is high the Central Bank will intervene more frequently and with large intervention amounts hence the intervention costs will be high.

  15. Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, John A.; Dahl, Christian Møller; Osler, Carol L.

    Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information is valuable to us as scientists since, like evidence of macroeconomic regularities, it can provide critical guidance...... of currency markets, it accurately reflects the constraints and objectives faced by the major participants, and it fits key stylized facts concerning returns and order flow. With respect to macroeconomics, the model is consistent with most of the major puzzles that have emerged under floating rates....

  16. Random walk theory and exchange rate dynamics in transition economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradojević Nikola

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the validity of the random walk theory in the Euro-Serbian dinar exchange rate market. We apply Andrew Lo and Archie MacKinlay's (1988 conventional variance ratio test and Jonathan Wright's (2000 non-parametric ranks and signs based variance ratio tests to the daily Euro/Serbian dinar exchange rate returns using the data from January 2005 - December 2008. Both types of variance ratio tests overwhelmingly reject the random walk hypothesis over the data span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model in the spirit of Francis Diebold and James Nason (1990 and find that it is able to significantly improve upon the random walk model, thus confirming the existence of foreign exchange market imperfections in a small transition economy such as Serbia. In the last part of the paper, we conduct a comparative study on how our results relate to those of other transition economies in the region.

  17. Predictability of Exchange Rates in Sri Lanka: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the validity of the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka. Monthly exchange rates for four currencies during the floating exchange rate regime were used in the empirical tests. Using a battery of tests, empirical results indicate that the current values of the four exchange rates can be predicted from their past values. Further, the tests of semi-strong form efficiency indicate that exchange rate pa...

  18. Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Yao, Y.

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses moment generating functions to provide a general framework to model international term structures and to price interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims. When moment generating functions of state variables have a closed-form formula, closed-form formulas for bond prices are

  19. Gap filling strategies for defensible annual sums of net ecosystem exchange

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Falge, E.; Baldocchi, D.; Olson, R.; Anthoni, P.; Aubinet, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Burba, G.; Ceulemans, R.; Clement, R.; Dolman, H.; Granier, A.; Gross, P.; Grünwald, T.; Hollinger, D.; Jensen, N.O.; Katul, G.; Keronen, P.; Kowalski, A.; Lai, C.T.; Law, B.E.; Meyers, T.; Moncrieff, J.; Moors, E.J.; Munger, J.W.; Pilegaard, K.; Rebmann, C.; Suyker, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Tu, K.

    2001-01-01

    Heightened awareness of global change issues within both science and political communities has increased interest in using the global network of eddy covariance flux towers to more fully understand the impacts of natural and anthropogenic phenomena on the global carbon balance. Comparisons of net

  20. North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.W. King; R.J. Andres; K J. Davis; M. Hafer; D.J. Hayes; D.N. Huntzinger; B. de Jong; W.A. Kurz; A.D. McGuire; R. Vargas; Y. Wei; T.O. West; C.W. Woodall

    2015-01-01

    Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net...

  1. Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavárek Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the evolution of effective exchange rates in nine Central and Eastern European countries in terms of development trends, volatility and cyclicality. Consequently, it provides direct empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between effective exchange rates and selected macroeconomic fundamentals, addressing a key precondition of numerous exchange rate determination models and theories that attempt to explain the role of exchange rates in the economy. The results suggest that flexible exchange rate arrangements are reflected in both nominal and real effective exchange rates having higher volatility and variability. Furthermore, the results provide mixed evidence in terms of intensity, direction and cyclicality, but show a weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for money supply. Consequently, using fundamentals for the determination of exchange rates and using the exchange rate to explain economic development may be of limited use for the countries analyzed.

  2. Effects of interest rate, exchange rate and their volatilities on stock prices: evidence from banking industry of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Tehseen JAWAID

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of exchange rate, interest rates, and their volatilities on stock prices of banking industry of Pakistan. Cointegration results suggests the existance of significant negative long run relationship between exchange rate and short term interest rate with stock prices. On the other hand, positive and significant relationship exists between volatilities of exchange rate and interest rate with stock prices. Causality analysis confirms bidirectional causality between exchange rate and stock prices. Whereas, unidirectional causality runs from short term interest rate to stock prices. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is suggested that investors should invest in banking sector stocks when exchange rate and interest rates are highly volatile. The result also supports the view that exchange rate and interest rate can be used as an indicator for investment decision making in banking sector stocks.

  3. Net exchanges of methane and carbon dioxide on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zhu, Xudong; He, Jin-Sheng; Song, Weimin

    2015-01-01

    Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) that affects the global climate system. Knowledge about land–atmospheric CH 4 exchanges on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is insufficient. Using a coupled biogeochemistry model, this study analyzes the net exchanges of CH 4 and CO 2 over the QTP for the period of 1979–2100. Our simulations show that the region currently acts as a net CH 4 source with 0.95 Tg CH 4 y −1 emissions and 0.19 Tg CH 4 y −1 soil uptake, and a photosynthesis C sink of 14.1 Tg C y −1 . By accounting for the net CH 4 emission and the net CO 2 sequestration since 1979, the region was found to be initially a warming source until the 2010s with a positive instantaneous radiative forcing peak in the 1990s. In response to future climate change projected by multiple global climate models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the regional source of CH 4 to the atmosphere will increase by 15–77% at the end of this century. Net ecosystem production (NEP) will continually increase from the near neutral state to around 40 Tg C y −1 under all RCPs except RCP8.5. Spatially, CH 4 emission or uptake will be noticeably enhanced under all RCPs over most of the QTP, while statistically significant NEP changes over a large-scale will only appear under RCP4.5 and RCP4.6 scenarios. The cumulative GHG fluxes since 1979 will exert a slight warming effect on the climate system until the 2030s, and will switch to a cooling effect thereafter. Overall, the total radiative forcing at the end of the 21st century is 0.25–0.35 W m −2 , depending on the RCP scenario. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for both CH 4 and CO 2 in quantifying the regional GHG budget. (paper)

  4. Testing nonlinearities between Brazilian exchange rate and inflation volatilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiane R. Albuquerque

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There are few studies, directly addressing exchange rate and inflation volatilities, and lack of consensus among them. However, this kind of study is necessary, especially under an inflation-targeting system where the monetary authority must know well price behavior. This article analyses the relation between exchange rate and inflation volatilities using a bivariate GARCH model, and therefore modeling conditional volatilities, fact largely unexplored by the literature. We find a semi-concave relation between those series, and this nonlinearity may explain their apparently disconnection under a floating exchange rate system. The article also shows that traditional tests, with non-conditional volatilities, are not robust.Existem poucos estudos, e pouco consenso, sobre a relação entre as volatilidades cambial e da inflação. Todavia, tais estudos são necessários, especialmente em um regime de metas de inflação onde a autoridade monetária deve conhecer detalhadamente o comportamento dos preços. Existem poucos estudos, e pouco consenso, sobre a relação entre as volatilidades cambial e da inflação. Todavia, tais estudos são necessários, especialmente em um regime de metas de inflação onde a autoridade monetária deve conhecer detalhadamente o comportamento dos preços. Este artigo analisa a relação entre aquelas volatilidades usando um modelo Garch bivariado, modelando, portanto, as volatilidades condicionais, enfoque pouco explorado pela literatura. Encontramos uma relação semi-côncava entre as séries, e esta não-linearidade pode explicar o aparente descolamento das mesmas em períodos de regime cambial flutuante. O artigo também mostra que os testes tradicionais, com volatilidades não-condicionais, não são robustos.

  5. Investigation of Chemical Exchange at Intermediate Exchange Rates using a Combination of Chemical Exchange Saturation Transfer (CEST) and Spin-Locking methods (CESTrho)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogan, Feliks; Singh, Anup; Cai, Keija; Haris, Mohammad; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

    2011-01-01

    Proton exchange imaging is important as it allows for visualization and quantification of the distribution of specific metabolites with conventional MRI. Current exchange mediated MRI methods suffer from poor contrast as well as confounding factors that influence exchange rates. In this study we developed a new method to measure proton exchange which combines chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and T1ρ magnetization preparation methods (CESTrho). We demonstrated that this new CESTrho sequence can detect proton exchange in the slow to intermediate exchange regimes. It has a linear dependence on proton concentration which allows it to be used to quantitatively measure changes in metabolite concentration. Additionally, the magnetization scheme of this new method can be customized to make it insensitive to changes in exchange rate while retaining its dependency on solute concentration. Finally, we showed the feasibility of using CESTrho in vivo. This sequence is able to detect proton exchange at intermediate exchange rates and is unaffected by the confounding factors that influence proton exchange rates thus making it ideal for the measurement of metabolites with exchangeable protons in this exchange regime. PMID:22009759

  6. Investigation of chemical exchange at intermediate exchange rates using a combination of chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and spin-locking methods (CESTrho).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogan, Feliks; Singh, Anup; Cai, Keija; Haris, Mohammad; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

    2012-07-01

    Proton exchange imaging is important as it allows for visualization and quantification of the distribution of specific metabolites with conventional MRI. Current exchange mediated MRI methods suffer from poor contrast as well as confounding factors that influence exchange rates. In this study we developed a new method to measure proton exchange which combines chemical exchange saturation transfer and T(1)(ρ) magnetization preparation methods (CESTrho). We demonstrated that this new CESTrho sequence can detect proton exchange in the slow to intermediate exchange regimes. It has a linear dependence on proton concentration which allows it to be used to quantitatively measure changes in metabolite concentration. Additionally, the magnetization scheme of this new method can be customized to make it insensitive to changes in exchange rate while retaining its dependency on solute concentration. Finally, we showed the feasibility of using CESTrho in vivo. This sequence is able to detect proton exchange at intermediate exchange rates and is unaffected by the confounding factors that influence proton exchange rates thus making it ideal for the measurement of metabolites with exchangeable protons in this exchange regime. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2014-01-01

    examples to show how reproductive timing Tc and level R0 are shaped by stage dynamics (individual trait changes), selection on the trait, and parent-offspring phenotypic correlation. We also show how population structure can affect dispersion in reproduction among ages and stages. These macroscopic...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...

  8. Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extremely dry summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    The importance and mode of action of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. Summer 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, experienced unusually high air temperatures (fifth warmest over a 65 yr period) and record low precipitation (lowest over a 65 yr period). These abnormal conditions resulted in strongly reduced net Sphagnum CO2 uptake, but no effect neither on vascular plant development nor on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this arctic tundra ecosystem. Gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were both generally greater during most of this extreme summer. Cumulative ecosystem C uptake in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, showing the capacity of the ecosystem to compensate in its net ecosystem exchange (NEE) despite the impact on other functions and structure such as substantial necrosis of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem C uptake (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer, i.e the year directly following the extremely summer. In 2008, cumulative C uptake was ∼70% lower than prior years. This reduction cannot solely be attributed to mosses, which typically contribute with ∼40% - of the entire ecosystem C uptake. The minimum summer cumulative C uptake in 2008 suggests that the entire ecosystem experienced difficulty readjusting to more typical weather after experiencing exceptionally warm and dry conditions. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative C uptake occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggest a high resilience of this tundra ecosystem. Overall, these results show a highly complex response of the C uptake and its sub-components to atypically dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events still awaits further investigation.

  9. An Optimal Commitment Model of Exchange Rate Stabilization

    OpenAIRE

    Kyung-Soo Kim

    2006-01-01

    Recently East Asian countries that have amassed large US dollar reserves face a growing threat of big losses from a sudden decline in the dollar. This threat evokes an issue of the optimal commitment of exchange rate stabilization once raised by Isard (1995) who interpreted the cost of breaking the parity as the capital gain awarded to speculators, in the event the domestic currency is devalued. The only difference in this paper is revaluation. This paper models the central bank��s optima...

  10. MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN FLEXIBLE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE CASE OF SELECTED TRANSITION ECONOMIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kosta JOSIFIDIS

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores selected monetary transmission channels in the case of transition economies. Namely, an exchange rate channel, an interest rate channel, direct and indirect influence to an exchange rate, are focused. Specific (former transition economies are differentiated according the combination of implemented monetary and exchange rate regimes: exchange rate as a nominal anchor and rigid exchange rate regimes, exchange rate as a nominal anchor and intermediate exchange rate regimes, and implicit/explicit inflation targeting monetary regime and floating (managed/free exchange rate regime. The monetary transmission is tracked during different phases in a transition process towards the EU and compared between different nominal anchors and exchange rate regimes. In order to track the influence of a monetary policy instruments (impulses to different goals of a monetary policy (responses during the period from 6-24 months, we use VAR and VEC models. Monthly frequency of following time series are used in the models: nominal exchange rates, consumer price indexes, foreign exchange reserves, and reference interest rates. The aim of the paper is to point to the distinction between de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, and to the adequacy of used combination of monetary and exchange rate regimes having in mind revealed features of investigated monetary transmission channels.

  11. Modelling the impact of soil Carbonic Anhydrase on the net ecosystem exchange of OCS at Harvard forest using the MuSICA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launois, Thomas; Ogée, Jérôme; Commane, Roisin; Wehr, Rchard; Meredith, Laura; Munger, Bill; Nelson, David; Saleska, Scott; Wofsy, Steve; Zahniser, Mark; Wingate, Lisa

    2016-04-01

    The exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is driven by photosynthetic uptake and respiratory loss, two fluxes currently estimated with considerable uncertainty at large scales. Model predictions indicate that these biosphere fluxes will be modified in the future as CO2 concentrations and temperatures increase; however, it still unclear to what extent. To address this challenge there is a need for better constraints on land surface model parameterisations. Additional atmospheric tracers of large-scale CO2 fluxes have been identified as potential candidates for this task. In particular carbonyl sulphide (OCS) has been proposed as a complementary tracer of gross photosynthesis over land, since OCS uptake by plants is dominated by carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity, an enzyme abundant in leaves that catalyses CO2 hydration during photosynthesis. However, although the mass budget at the ecosystem is dominated by the flux of OCS into leaves, some OCS is also exchanged between the atmosphere and the soil and this component of the budget requires constraining. In this study, we adapted the process-based isotope-enabled model MuSICA (Multi-layer Simulator of the Interactions between a vegetation Canopy and the Atmosphere) to include the transport, reaction, diffusion and production of OCS within a forested ecosystem. This model was combined with 3 years (2011-2013) of in situ measurements of OCS atmospheric concentration profiles and fluxes at the Harvard Forest (Massachussets, USA) to test hypotheses on the mechanisms responsible for CA-driven uptake by leaves and soils as well as possible OCS emissions during litter decomposition. Model simulations over the three years captured well the impact of diurnally and seasonally varying environmental conditions on the net ecosystem OCS flux. A sensitivity analysis on soil CA activity and soil OCS emission rates was also performed to quantify their impact on the vertical profiles of OCS inside the

  12. Fiscal imbalances and exchange rate management: Greece on the track of EMU

    OpenAIRE

    Δημόπουλος, Γ. Δ.; Φρατζέσκος, Ε. Κ.; Καπόπουλος, Παναγιώτης

    1998-01-01

    Measured against PPP. the drachma effective exchange rate was overvalued by a significant amount, implying that the devaluation on March 1998 was an adjustment of the exchange rate towards the long-run price differentials. The paper also analyses the links between fiscal policy, interest rates and the real exchange rate in Greece and attempts to empirically measure the forces that push the exchange rate toward real appreciation. The results suggest that positive shocks to governme...

  13. Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Small, Primary-Exporting Country

    OpenAIRE

    Mohsin S. Khan; Peter J. Montiel

    1987-01-01

    Although the nominal exchange rate is often used as a policy instrument in small, primary-commodity-exporting countries, the real exchange rate is an endogenous variable that responds to both exogenous and policyinduced shocks. This paper examines the dynamic effects on the real exchange rate of various shocks, such as devaluation, fiscal and trade policies, and changes in the terms of trade and foreign real interest rates. Because the path of the real exchange rate differs for different type...

  14. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  15. Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Richards, Cristi L; Vroom, Peter S; Price, Nichole N; Schils, Tom; Young, Charles W; Smith, Jennifer; Johnson, Maggie D; Brainard, Russell E

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2) yr(-1)) of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU) plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years) of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA) percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons makes CCA

  16. Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo Vargas-Ángel

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2 yr(-1 of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons

  17. Particle loading rates for HVAC filters, heat exchangers, and ducts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, M S; Siegel, J A

    2008-06-01

    The rate at which airborne particulate matter deposits onto heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) components is important from both indoor air quality (IAQ) and energy perspectives. This modeling study predicts size-resolved particle mass loading rates for residential and commercial filters, heat exchangers (i.e. coils), and supply and return ducts. A parametric analysis evaluated the impact of different outdoor particle distributions, indoor emission sources, HVAC airflows, filtration efficiencies, coils, and duct system complexities. The median predicted residential and commercial loading rates were 2.97 and 130 g/m(2) month for the filter loading rates, 0.756 and 4.35 g/m(2) month for the coil loading rates, 0.0051 and 1.00 g/month for the supply duct loading rates, and 0.262 g/month for the commercial return duct loading rates. Loading rates are more dependent on outdoor particle distributions, indoor sources, HVAC operation strategy, and filtration than other considered parameters. The results presented herein, once validated, can be used to estimate filter changing and coil cleaning schedules, energy implications of filter and coil loading, and IAQ impacts associated with deposited particles. The results in this paper suggest important factors that lead to particle deposition on HVAC components in residential and commercial buildings. This knowledge informs the development and comparison of control strategies to limit particle deposition. The predicted mass loading rates allow for the assessment of pressure drop and indoor air quality consequences that result from particle mass loading onto HVAC system components.

  18. The Inter-Annual Variability Analysis of Carbon Exchange in Low Artic Fen Uncovers The Climate Sensitivity And The Uncertainties Around Net Ecosystem Exchange Partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, E. L.; Lund, M.; Williams, M. D.; Christensen, T. R.; Tamstorf, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    An improvement in our process-based understanding of CO2 exchanges in the Arctic, and their climate sensitivity, is critical for examining the role of tundra ecosystems in changing climates. Arctic organic carbon storage has seen increased attention in recent years due to large potential for carbon releases following thaw. Our knowledge about the exact scale and sensitivity for a phase-change of these C stocks are, however, limited. Minor variations in Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) driven by changes in the climate can lead to either C sink or C source states, which likely will impact the overall C cycle of the ecosystem. Eddy covariance data is usually used to partition Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) into GPP and Reco achieved by flux separation algorithms. However, different partitioning approaches lead to different estimates. as well as undefined uncertainties. The main objectives of this study are to use model-data fusion approaches to (1) determine the inter-annual variability in C source/sink strength for an Arctic fen, and attribute such variations to GPP vs Reco, (2) investigate the climate sensitivity of these processes and (3) explore the uncertainties in NEE partitioning. The intention is to elaborate on the information gathered in an existing catchment area under an extensive cross-disciplinary ecological monitoring program in low Arctic West Greenland, established under the auspices of the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program. The use of such a thorough long-term (7 years) dataset applied to the exploration in inter-annual variability of carbon exchange, related driving factors and NEE partition uncertainties provides a novel input into our understanding about land-atmosphere CO2 exchange.

  19. Exchange-rate-based stabilization in Argentina and Chile : a fresh look

    OpenAIRE

    Kiguel, Miguel A.; Liviatan, Nissan

    1994-01-01

    Exchange-rate-based stabilization is designed to reduce inflation by using the exchange rate as the main nominal anchor. This does not necessarily mean a fixed exchange rate. A crawling peg with a low rate of depreciation or a pre-announced gradual reduction in the rate of devaluation are alternative ways to use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Exchange-rate-based stabilization (ERBS) has been widely used in the high-inflation economies of Latin America. Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay ad...

  20. Interannual variability of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and its component fluxes in a subalpine Mediterranean ecosystem (SE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamizo, Sonia; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Sánchez-Cañete, Enrique P.; Domingo, Francisco; Arnau-Rosalén, Eva; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Pérez-Priego, Óscar; López-Ballesteros, Ana; Kowalski, Andrew S.

    2015-04-01

    Recent decades under climate change have seen increasing interest in quantifying the carbon (C) balance of different terrestrial ecosystems, and their behavior as sources or sinks of C. Both CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and identification of its drivers are key to understanding land-surface feedbacks to climate change. The eddy covariance (EC) technique allows measurements of net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) from short to long time scales. In addition, flux partitioning models can extract the components of net CO2 fluxes, including both biological processes of photosynthesis or gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (Reco), and also abiotic drivers like subsoil CO2 ventilation (VE), which is of particular relevance in semiarid environments. The importance of abiotic processes together with the strong interannual variability of precipitation, which strongly affects CO2 fluxes, complicates the accurate characterization of the C balance in semiarid landscapes. In this study, we examine 10 years of interannual variability of NEE and its components at a subalpine karstic plateau, El Llano de los Juanes, in the Sierra de Gádor (Almería, SE Spain). Results show annual NEE ranging from 55 g C m-2 (net emission) to -54 g C m-2 (net uptake). Among C flux components, GPP was the greatest contributing 42-57% of summed component magnitudes, while contributions by Reco and VE ranged from 27 to 46% and from 3 to 18%, respectively. Annual precipitation during the studied period exhibited high interannual variability, ranging from 210 mm to 1374 mm. Annual precipitation explained 50% of the variance in Reco, 59% of that in GPP, and 56% for VE. While Reco and GPP were positively correlated with annual precipitation (correlation coefficient, R, of 0.71 and 0.77, respectively), VE showed negative correlation with this driver (R = -0.74). During the driest year (2004-2005), annual GPP and Reco reached their lowest values, while contribution of

  1. Effects of health information exchange adoption on ambulatory testing rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephen E; Radcliff, Tiffany A; Leblanc, William G; Dickinson, L Miriam; Libby, Anne M; Nease, Donald E

    2013-01-01

    To determine the effects of the adoption of ambulatory electronic health information exchange (HIE) on rates of laboratory and radiology testing and allowable charges. Claims data from the dominant health plan in Mesa County, Colorado, from 1 April 2005 to 31 December 2010 were matched to HIE adoption data on the provider level. Using mixed effects regression models with the quarter as the unit of analysis, the effect of HIE adoption on testing rates and associated charges was assessed. Claims submitted by 306 providers in 69 practices for 34 818 patients were analyzed. The rate of testing per provider was expressed as tests per 1000 patients per quarter. For primary care providers, the rate of laboratory testing increased over the time span (baseline 1041 tests/1000 patients/quarter, increasing by 13.9 each quarter) and shifted downward with HIE adoption (downward shift of 83, prates or imputed charges in either provider group. Ambulatory HIE adoption is unlikely to produce significant direct savings through reductions in rates of testing. The economic benefits of HIE may reside instead in other downstream outcomes of better informed, higher quality care.

  2. The Determinants of won/dollar Exchange Rate Volatility and Policy Recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chae-Shick Chung

    1998-09-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzed the feature and different points of the changing of the exchange rate of Korea won against US dollar, then discussed the direction of the completion of Korea exchange rate system. The prediction result of the model GARCH which vividly shows the phenomenon of the auto-regression of the exchange rate has indicated the level of the exchange rate yesterday could explain the circumstance of the change of exchange rate today. Meanwhile, the policy of the US exchange rate will affect the exchange rate of Korea won against US dollar and the volatility of foreign exchange rate. In the present situation of Korean economy in which the liberalization of capital and the independence of the central bank has been established, the choosing range of the exchange system could only be completely changeable exchange rate system or exchange rate system of multilateral arrangement like Europe. However, in terms of the condition of the world economy, the introduction of the latter system is too early. There is an idea that under the changeable exchange rate system which is the only choice, it is the right time to activate the main body of private economy, the financial derivatives market in which the exchange risk could be trade-off. Government should work on and create a policy that would be able to satisfy the expectations of the market participants.

  3. Capture efficiency and injury rates of band-tailed pigeons using whoosh nets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coxen, Christopher L.; Collins, Daniel P.; Carleton, Scott A.

    2018-01-01

    Catching ground feeding birds has typically been accomplished through small, walk-in funnel-style traps. This approach is limited because it requires a bird to find its way into the trap, is biased toward less wary birds, and does not allow targeted trapping of individual birds. As part of a large study on Band-tailed Pigeons (Patagioenas fasciata) in New Mexico, we needed a trapping method that would allow more control over the number of birds we could trap at one time, when a trap was deployed, and target trapping of specific individuals. We adopted a relatively novel trapping technique used primarily for shorebirds, whoosh nets, to trap Band-tailed Pigeons at 3 different sites where birds were being fed by local landowners. During 2013–2015, whoosh nets were used to trap 702 Band-tailed Pigeons at 3 different locations in New Mexico. We captured 12.54 ± 8.19 pigeons per shot over 56 capture events across 3 locations (range: 2–39). Some superficial injuries occurred using this technique and typically involved damage to the primary and secondary wing coverts. In 2013, 24% of captured birds had an injury of this nature, but after modifying the net speed, injury rates in 2014 and 2015 dropped to 8% and 7%, respectively. Recaptured previously injured birds showed new feather growth within 2 weeks and showed no signs of injury after 4 weeks. Whoosh nets proved to be a highly effective solution for trapping large numbers of pigeons at baited sites. These systems are easily transported, quickly deployed, and easily adapted to a variety of site conditions. 

  4. Application for Determination of the Forward Exchange Rate in Access 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana MOCEAN

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate set the present rate for a foreign currency transaction with payment or delivery at some future date. Forward rates are calculated by using the current exchange rate for the currency pair and the interest rates for the two currencies and allow you to lock in rate now for a future. This paper describes the formulas which determinate the forward exchange rate and how can we implement them in a short, but efficient informatics application.

  5. Exchange Rate Instability: Japan's Micro-Macro Experiences and Implications for China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mamoru Ishida

    2006-01-01

    Since 1985, the yen-dollar exchange rates repeatedly fluctuated and climbed to a level that could not be justified by economic fundamentals. The impacts on the Japanese economy were serious and far-reaching.Since 21 July 2005, China has been moving toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Keeping RMB exchange rates basically stable and providing Chinese industries with means to hedge exchange rate risks are essential for China's sound economic development.

  6. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EXCHANGE RATE AND THE INFLATION: EMPIRICAL SURVEY FOR ROMANIA

    OpenAIRE

    Catalina Adriana Handoreanu

    2008-01-01

    The influence on price level of changes in exchange rate comeback in the last period in the attention of economists and policy makers. The price level movement due to the changes in the exchange rate is named exchange rate pass-through and is important for the monetary policy and for the exchange rate choice. A reduced passthrough makes the monetary policy more independent and more easily implementation of inflation targeting. This working paper analyzed this phenomenon through a recursive eq...

  7. The determination of capital controls: Which role do exchange rate regimes play?

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2003-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of exchange rate regime choices in the determination of capital controls in transition economies. We first use a simultaneous equations model to allow direct interactions between decisions on capital controls and on exchange rate regimes. We find that exchange rate regime choices strongly influence the imposition or removal of capital controls, but the feed-back effect is weak. We further estimate a single equation model for capital controls with exchange rate...

  8. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran’s Raisin Export

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Exchange rate volatility is one of the effective and ambiguous factors in agricultural product export. Considering the importance of agricultural trade to avoid single-product economy, the main aim of this study was to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the Raisin export of Iran during the years1959-2011. For this purpose, exchange rate volatility index was estimated using Moving Average Standard Deviation (MASD). Then, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the value of...

  9. Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda

    2001-01-01

    The paper analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate in Zambia. It first gives a brief review of the Zambian economy and a review on real exchange rate studies. Then an illustrative model is presented. The study employs cointegration analysis in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates for imports and exports, and of the internal real exchange rate. The finding is that terms of trade, government consumption, and investment share all influence the real exch...

  10. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia Trifonova; Milena Kovachevich

    2016-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of...

  11. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Trifonova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of public debt?

  12. Seasonal soil VOC exchange rates in a Mediterranean holm oak forest and their responses to drought conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asensio, Dolores; Peñuelas, Josep; Ogaya, Romà; Llusià, Joan

    Available information on soil volatile organic compound (VOC) exchange, emissions and uptake, is very scarce. We here describe the amounts and seasonality of soil VOC exchange during a year in a natural Mediterranean holm oak forest growing in Southern Catalonia. We investigated changes in soil VOC dynamics in drought conditions by decreasing the soil moisture to 30% of ambient conditions by artificially excluding rainfall and water runoff, and predicted the response of VOC exchange to the drought forecasted in the Mediterranean region for the next decades by GCM and ecophysiological models. The annual average of the total (detected) soil VOC and total monoterpene exchange rates were 3.2±3.2 and -0.4±0.3 μg m -2 h -1, respectively, in control plots. These values represent 0.003% of the total C emitted by soil at the study site as CO 2 whereas the annual mean of soil monoterpene exchange represents 0.0004% of total C. Total soil VOC exchange rates in control plots showed seasonal variations following changes in soil moisture and phenology. Maximum values were found in spring (17±8 μg m -2 h -1). Although there was no significant global effect of drought treatment on the total soil VOC exchange rates, annual average of total VOC exchange rates in drought plots resulted in an uptake rate (-0.5±1.8 μg m -2 h -1) instead of positive net emission rates. Larger soil VOC and monoterpene exchanges were measured in drought plots than in control plots in summer, which might be mostly attributable to autotrophic (roots) metabolism. The results show that the diversity and magnitude of monoterpene and VOC soil emissions are low compared with plant emissions, that they are driven by soil moisture, that they represent a very small part of the soil-released carbon and that they may be strongly reduced or even reversed into net uptakes by the predicted decreases of soil water availability in the next decades. In all cases, it seems that VOC fluxes in soil might have greater

  13. International finance, Lévy distributions, and the econophysics of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Silva, Sergio; Matsushita, Raul; Gleria, Iram; Figueiredo, Annibal; Rathie, Pushpa

    2005-06-01

    This paper surveys the developments in the field of international finance, in particular the research of economists on foreign exchange rates. That might be of interest to physicists working on the econophysics of exchange rates. We show how the econophysics agenda might follow naturally from the economists' research. We also present our own work on the econophysics of exchange rates.

  14. Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijia Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno

    2010-01-01

    The relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We...

  15. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US

  16. A firm-specific exposure analyis of the exchange-rate exposure of Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.; Ligterink, J.; Macrae, V.

    2006-01-01

    We examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a

  17. Capital Controls and Foreign Investor Subsidies Implicit in South Africa's Dual Exchange Rate System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizinga, H.P.; Schaling, E.; van der Windt, P.C.

    2007-01-01

    Both in theory and practice, capital controls and dual exchange rate systems can be part of a country's optimal tax policy. We first show how a dual exchange rate system can be interpreted as a tax (or subsidy) on international capital income. We show that a dual exchange rate system, with separate

  18. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  19. A Firm-Specific Analysis of the Exchange-Rate Exposure of Dutch Firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. de Jong (Abe); J. Ligterink; V. Macrae

    2002-01-01

    textabstractWe examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50% of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a

  20. An Examination of the Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sectoral Trade in the Mercosur

    OpenAIRE

    Larson, Donald W.; Bittencourt, Maurício Vaz Lobo; Thompson, Stanley R.

    2005-01-01

    This study captures the lack of macroeconomic policy coordination among Mercosur countries, through the impact of real bilateral exchange rate volatility on trade. A sectoral gravity model is estimated under two different measures of exchange rate volatility. Results show that the reduction in exchange rate volatility can increase bilateral trade.

  1. Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes:The European Evidence 1974-1998

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kool, C.J.M.; Lammertsma, A.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we empirically investigate the link between exchange rate accommodation and inflation persistence in Europe. We introduce the lagged level of the real exchange rate as an appropriate indicator of exchange rate accommodation. We correspondingly estimate a non-linear autoregressive

  2. A Critical Appraisal of Exchange Rate Policies and the Value of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper critically appraised exchange rate policies and its influence on the value of the domestic currency (i.e. Naira) in Nigeria for the period 1970 through 2002 within the framework of tabular approach. Exchange rate theories and the exchange rate policies prior to SAP, during SAP and after SAP were reviewed.

  3. Evaluating a new method to estimate the rate of leaf respiration in the light by analysis of combined gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, X.; Sun, Z.; Struik, P.C.; Gu, J.

    2011-01-01

    Day respiration (R(d)) is an important parameter in leaf ecophysiology. It is difficult to measure directly and is indirectly estimated from gas exchange (GE) measurements of the net photosynthetic rate (A), commonly using the Laisk method or the Kok method. Recently a new method was proposed to

  4. Return Rates for Needle Exchange Programs: A Common Criticism Answered

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksobiech Kate

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study searched the available needle exchange program (NEP literature for return rate data. A total of 26 articles were found. The overall worldwide return rate was 90%, although this ranged from a low of 15% to a high of 112%. U.S. NEP return rates were gathered from only eight studies, indicating a clear need for more data, although U.S. return rates were comparable to those from NEPs outside of the U.S. One underlying assumption made by opponents of NEPs is that IDUs will not return needles to the distribution site, thereby potentially increasing the risk of health problems to the surrounding community from exposure to contaminated needles. This study's results suggest that NEPs are relatively successful in taking in used needles, although it is generally unclear where the needles were originally acquired, and if IDUs return their own needles, or are returning needles for a social network. Ways for AIDS Service Organizations to capitalize on these brief encounters with IDUs, as well as public policy implications of the findings, are discussed.

  5. Impacts of Korea's Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwon Sik Kim

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of two types of uncertainty related to the real effective exchange rate (REER in Korea for export trends. To decompose uncertainties into two types of component, I propose an advanced generalized Markov switching model, as developed by Hamilton (1989 and then expanded by Kim and Kim (1996. The proposed model is useful in uncovering two sources of uncertainty: the permanent component of REER and the purely transitory component. I think that the two types of uncertainties have a different effect on export trends in Korea. The transitory component of REER has no effect on the export trend at 5-percent significance, but the permanent component has an effect at this level. In addition, the degree of uncertainty, consisting of low, medium and high uncertainty in the permanent component, and low, medium and high uncertainty in transitory component of REER, also has different effects on export trends in Korea. Only high uncertainty in permanent components effects export trends. The results show that when the policy authority intends to prevent the shrinkage of exports due to the deepening of uncertainties in the foreign exchange market, the economic impacts of its intervention could appear differently according to the characteristics and degree of the uncertainties. Therefore, they imply that its economic measures, which could not grasp the sources of uncertainties properly, may even bring economic costs.

  6. Biotic, abiotic, and management controls on the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of European mountain grassland ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Anderson-Dunn, Margaret; Bahn, Michael

    2008-01-01

    The net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange (NEE) of nine European mountain grassland ecosystems was measured during 2002-2004 using the eddy covariance method. Overall, the availability of photosynthetically active radiation (PPFD) was the single most important abiotic influence factor for NEE....... Its role changed markedly during the course of the season, PPFD being a better predictor for NEE during periods favorable for CO2 uptake, which was spring and autumn for the sites characterized by summer droughts (southern sites) and (peak) summer for the Alpine and northern study sites. This general...... pattern was interrupted by grassland management practices, that is, mowing and grazing, when the variability in NEE explained by PPFD decreased in concert with the amount of aboveground biomass (BMag). Temperature was the abiotic influence factor that explained most of the variability in ecosystem...

  7. Estimation of Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange for the Conterminous UnitedStates by Combining MODIS and AmeriFlux Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Law, Beverly E.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Chen, Jiquan; Oren, Ram; Starr, Gregory; Noormets, Asko; Ma, Siyan; Verma, Shashi B.; Wharton, Sonia; Wofsy, Steven C.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Burns, Sean P.; Cook, David R.; Curtis, Peter S.; Drake, Bert G.; Falk, Matthias; Fischer, Marc L.; Foster, David R.; Gu, Lianhong; Hadley, Julian L.; Hollinger, David Y.; Katul, Gabriel G.; Litvak, Marcy; Martin, Timothy A.; Matamala, Roser; McNulty, Steve; Meyers, Tilden P.; Monson, Russell K.; Munger, J. William; Oechel, Walter C.; U, Kyaw Tha Paw; Schmid, Hans Peter; Scott, Russell L.; Sun, Ge; Suyker, Andrew E.; Torn, Margaret S.

    2009-03-06

    Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents, flux tower measurements need to be extrapolated to these large areas. Here we used remotely-sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite to scale up AmeriFlux NEE measurements to the continental scale. We first combined MODIS and AmeriFlux data for representative U.S. ecosystems to develop a predictive NEE model using a regression tree approach. The predictive model was trained and validated using NEE data over the periods 2000-2004 and 2005-2006, respectively. We found that the model predicted NEE reasonably well at the site level. We then applied the model to the continental scale and estimated NEE for each 1 km x 1 km cell across the conterminous U.S. for each 8-day period in 2005 using spatially-explicit MODIS data. The model generally captured the expected spatial and seasonal patterns of NEE. Our study demonstrated that our empirical approach is effective for scaling up eddy flux NEE measurements to the continental scale and producing wall-to-wall NEE estimates across multiple biomes. Our estimates may provide an independent dataset from simulations with biogeochemical models and inverse modeling approaches for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of NEE and constraining terrestrial carbon budgets for large areas.

  8. Estimation of net ecosystem carbon exchange for the conterminous United States by combining MODIS and AmeriFlux data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Burns, Sean P.; Chen, Jiquan; Cook, David R.; Curtis, Peter S.; Drake, Bert G.; Foster, David R.; Gu, Lianhong; Hadley, Julian L.; Hollinger, David Y.; Katul, Gabriel G.; Law, Beverly E.; Litvak, Marcy; Ma, Siyan; Martin, Timothy A.; Matamala, Roser; McNulty, Steve; Meyers, Tilden P.; Monson, Russell K.; Munger, J. William; Noormets, Asko; Oechel, Walter C.; Oren, Ram; Richardson, Andrew D.; Schmid, Hans Peter; Scott, Russell L.; Starr, Gregory; Sun, Ge; Suyker, Andrew E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Paw, Kyaw; Verma, Shashi B.; Wharton, Sonia; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2008-10-01

    Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents, flux tower measurements need to be extrapolated to these large areas. Here we used remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Terra satellite to scale up AmeriFlux NEE measurements to the continental scale. We first combined MODIS and AmeriFlux data for representative U.S. ecosystems to develop a predictive NEE model using a modified regression tree approach. The predictive model was trained and validated using eddy flux NEE data over the periods 2000-2004 and 2005-2006, respectively. We found that the model predicted NEE well (r = 0.73, p < 0.001). We then applied the model to the continental scale and estimated NEE for each 1 km x 1 km cell across the conterminous U.S. for each 8-day interval in 2005 using spatially explicit MODIS data. The model generally captured the expected spatial and seasonal patterns of NEE as determined from measurements and the literature. Our study demonstrated that our empirical approach is effective for scaling up eddy flux NEE measurements to the continental scale and producing wall-to-wall NEE estimates across multiple biomes. Our estimates may provide an independent dataset from simulations with biogeochemical models and inverse modeling approaches for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of NEE and constraining terrestrial carbon budgets over large areas.

  9. Exchange rate and trade balance: J-curve effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Pavle

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen's and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009.

  10. Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozef M. Van Brabant

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines potential conflicts between rapid EU integration of economies in transition (EiTs and their pursuing catch-up by focusing on exchange-rate policies. After justifying the proposed inquiry, official pronouncements on ER policies that EUcandidates are expected to pursue in the run-up to and upon their accession are summarized, and the salient features of recent debates on ER regimes recalled. Inasmuch as EiTs must modernize and reconcile this obligation with EU membership, in spite of the EU's cohesion experience, the paper combines real and nominal convergence issues with institutional changes upon EU accession to draw a novel perspective on the desirable postaccession transition regime for EiTs with a fairly active ER policy and the EU's cohesion strategy. Core components of such a strategy are advocated.

  11. On the nonlinear influence of Reserve Bank of Australia interventions on exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan C.; Taylor, Mark P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper applies nonlinear econometric models to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange rate policy. First, results from a STARTZ model are provided revealing nonlinear mean reversion of the Australian dollar exchange rate in the sense that mean reversion increases with the degree of exchange rate misalignment. Second, a STR-GARCH model suggests that RBA interventions account for this result by strengthening foreign exchange traders' confid...

  12. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in the Monetary Policy Reaction Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krušković Borivoje D.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a particular interest in the relation between exchange rates and interest rates both in developed countries and emerging countries. This is understandable given the important role that these variables have in determining the movement of nominal and real economic variables, including the movement of domestic inflation, real output, exports and imports, foreign exchange reserves, etc. To realized the importance of the given instruments selected macroeconomic indicators, data analysis (monthly data relating to Serbia was made on the basis of the Transfer Function Model, a data analysis (annual data relating to emerging countries was done on the basis of the Stepvise Multiple Regression model. In the transfer function model we used the Maximum Likelihood method for assessing unknown coefficients. In the gradual multiple regression model we used the Least Square method for the evaluation of unknown coefficients. All indicator values were used in the original unmodified form, i.e. there was no need for a variety of transformations. Empirical analysis showed that the exchange rate is a more significant transmission mechanism than the interest rate both in emerging markets and Serbia.

  13. Shifting the Arctic Carbon Balance: Effects of a Long-Term Fertilization Experiment and Anomalously Warm Temperatures on Net Ecosystem Exchange in the Alaskan Tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, S.; Natali, S.; Rastetter, E. B.; Shaver, G. R.; Graham, L. M.; Jastrow, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    The arctic is warming at an accelerated rate relative to the globe. Among the predicted consequences of warming temperatures in the arctic are increased gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and nutrient availability. The net effect of these changes on the carbon (C) cycle and resulting C balance and feedback to climate change remain unclear. Historically the Arctic has been a C sink, but evidence from recent years suggests some regions in the Arctic are becoming C sources. To predict the role of the Arctic in global C cycling, the mechanisms affecting arctic C balances need to be better resolved. We measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in a long-term, multi-level, fertilization experiment at Toolik Lake, AK during an anomalously warm summer. We modeled NEE, ER, and GPP using a Bayesian network model. The best-fit model included Q10 temperature functions and linear fertilization functions for both ER and GPP. ER was more strongly affected by temperature and GPP was driven more by fertilization level. As a result, fertilization increased the C sink capacity, but only at moderate and low temperatures. At high temperatures (>28 °C) the NEE modeled for the highest level of fertilization was not significantly different from zero. In contrast, at ambient nutrient levels modeled NEE was significantly below zero (net uptake) until 35 °C, when it becomes neutral. Regardless of the level of fertilization, NEE never decreased with warming. Temperature in low ranges (5-15°C) had no net effect on NEE, whereas NEE began to increase exponentially with temperature after a threshold of 15°C until becoming a net source to the atmosphere at 37°C. Our results indicate that the C sink strength of tundra ecosystems can be increased with small increases in nutrient availability, but that large increase in nutrient availability can switch tundra ecosystems into C sources under warm conditions. Warming temperatures in tundra ecosystems will only decrease C

  14. Annual and Seasonal Mean Net Evaporation Rates of the Red Sea Water during Jan 1958 - Dec 2007

    OpenAIRE

    Nassir, Sahbaldeen Abdulaziz

    2012-01-01

    Data set including sea level, temperature, salinity, and current from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) is used in this study to estimate the mean net annually and seasonally evaporation rates. Then wind data is used to examine its impact on the evaporation. This work calculated the seasonal and annual evaporation rates based on assumption of that there is no net mass transport (balanced). Hence, the difference in the transport supposed to be equal to the water that has eva...

  15. Net CO2 and water exchanges of trees and grasses in a semi-arid region (Gourma, Mali)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dantec, Valérie; Kergoat, Laurent; Timouk, Franck; Hiernaux, Pierre; Mougin, Eric

    2010-05-01

    An improved understanding of plant and soil processes is critical to predict land surface-atmosphere water exchanges, especially in semi-arid environments, where knowledge is still severely lacking. Within the frame of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Project (AMMA), eddy covariance and sapflow stations have been installed to document the intensity, the temporal variability and the main drivers of net CO2 fluxes, water fluxes and contribution of the trees to these fluxes in a pastoral Sahelian landscape. Indeed, although the importance of vegetation in the West African monsoon system has long been postulated, extremely few data were available sofar to test and develop land surface models. In particular, data documenting seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of vegetation/atmosphere exchanges did not exist at 15° N in West Africa before AMMA. The site is located in the Gourma, Mali. Vegetation in this area is sparse and mainly composed of annual grasses and forbs, and trees. Vegetation is organized according to soil type and lateral water redistribution, with bare soil with scattered trees on shallow soils and rocky outcrops (35% of the area), annual grasses and scattered trees on sandy soils (65% of the area), and more dense canopies of grasses and trees growing in valley bottoms over clay soil. To quantify tree transpiration in the overall evapotranspiration flux, sapflow measurements, associated to soil moisture measurements, have been conducted on the main tree species (Acacia senegal, A. seyal, A. raddiana, Combretum glutinosum, Balanites aegyptiaca) in a grassland site and in an open forest site, where eddy covariance fluxes measured the total flux. Using this dataset, we have studied the effects of plant diversity on carbon and water fluxes at the foot-print scale and seasonal dynamics of fluxes due to plant phenology and variations of soil water content (SWC). Carbon fluxes were documented as well, over two years. NEE was close to 0 during the dry season

  16. Seasonal reversal of temperature-moisture response of net carbon exchange of biocrusted soils in a cool desert ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, C.; Reed, S.; Howell, A.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon cycling associated with biological soil crusts, which occur in interspaces between vascular plants in drylands globally, may be an important part of the coupled climate-carbon cycle of the Earth system. A major challenge to understanding CO2 fluxes in these systems is that much of the biotic and biogeochemical activity occurs in the upper few mm of the soil surface layer (i.e., the `mantle of fertility'), which exhibits highly dynamic and difficult to measure temperature and moisture fluctuations. Here, we report data collected in a cool desert ecosystem over one year using a multi-sensor approach to simultaneously measuring temperature and moisture of the biocrust surface layer (0-2 mm), and the deeper soil profile (5-20 cm), concurrent with automated measurement of surface soil CO2 effluxes. Our results illuminate robust relationships between microclimate and field CO2 pulses that have previously been difficult to detect and explain. The temperature of the biocrust surface layer was highly variable, ranging from minimum of -9 °C in winter to maximum of 77 °C in summer with a maximum diurnal range of 61 °C. Temperature cycles were muted deeper in the soil profile. During summer, biocrust and soils were usually hot and dry and CO2 fluxes were tightly coupled to pulse wetting events experienced at the biocrust surface, which consistently resulted in net CO2 efflux (i.e., respiration). In contrast, during the winter, biocrust and soils were usually cold and moist, and there was sustained net CO2 uptake via photosynthesis by biocrust organisms, although during cold dry periods CO2 fluxes were minimal. During the milder spring and fall seasons, short wetting events drove CO2 loss, while sustained wetting events resulted in net CO2 uptake. Thus, the upper and lower bounds of net CO2 exchange at a point in time were functions of the seasonal temperature regime, while the actual flux within those bounds was determined by the magnitude and duration of biocrust

  17. Canopy uptake of atmospheric N deposition at a conifer forest: part I -canopy N budget, photosynthetic efficiency and net ecosystem exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sievering, H.; Tomaszewski, T.; Torizzo, J.

    2007-01-01

    Global carbon cycle assessments of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition influences on carbon sequestration often assume enhanced sequestration results. This assumption was evaluated at a Rocky Mountains spruce-fir forest. Forest canopy N uptake (CNU) of atmospheric N deposition was estimated by combining event wet and throughfall N fluxes with gradient measured HNO 3 and NH 3 as well as inferred (NO x and particulate N) dry fluxes. Approximately 80% of the growing-season 3 kg N/ha total deposition is retained in canopy foliage and branches. This CNU constitutes ∼1/3 of canopy growing season new N supply at this conifer forest site. Daytime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) significantly (P = 0.006) and negatively (CO 2 uptake) correlated with CNU. Multiple regression indicates ∼20% of daytime NEE may be attributed to CNU (P < 0.02); more than soil water content. A wet deposition N-amendment study (Tomaszewski and Sievering), at canopy spruce branches, increased their growing-season CNU by 40-50% above ambient. Fluorometry and gas exchange results show N-amended spruce branches had greater photosynthetic efficiency and higher carboxylation rates than control and untreated branches. N-amended branches had 25% less photoinhibition, with a 5-9% greater proportion of foliar-N-in-Rubisco. The combined results provide, partly, a mechanistic explanation for the NEE dependence on CNU

  18. Gap filling strategies for defensible annual sums of net ecosystem exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falge, E.; Baldocchi, D.; Olson, R.

    2001-01-01

    ecosystem exchange (F-NEE) responses are being made among biome types, phenology patterns, and stress conditions. The comparisons are usually performed on annual sums of F-NEE; however, the average data coverage during a year is only 65%. Therefore, robust and consistent gap filling methods are required. We...... is investigated. The difference between annual F-NEE filled by MDV compared to F-NEE filled by Regr. ranged from -45 to +200 g C m(-2) per year (MDV-Regr.). Comparing LookUp and Regr. methods resulted in a difference (LookUp-Regr.) ranging from -30 to +150g Cm-2 per year. We also investigated the impact...... of replacing measurements at night, when turbulent mixing is insufficient. The nighttime correction for low friction velocities (u(*)) shifted annual F-NEE on average by +77 g C m(-2) per year, but in certain cases as much as +185 g C m-2 per year. Our results emphasize the need to standardize gap filling...

  19. A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie-Hao; Zhao, Zi-Qian; Shi, Ji-Yun; Zhao, Chong

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR) estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR) model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model by 5.80%.

  20. A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie-Hao Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR model by 5.80%.

  1. A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zi-Qian; Shi, Ji-Yun; Zhao, Chong

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR) estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR) model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model by 5.80%. PMID:29209363

  2. Solvent Exchange Rates of Side-chain Amide Protons in Proteins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajagopal, Ponni; Jones, Bryan E.; Klevit, Rachel E.

    1998-01-01

    Solvent exchange rates and temperature coefficients for Asn/Gln side-chain amide protons have been measured in Escherichia coli HPr. The protons of the eight side-chain amide groups (two Asn and six Gln) exhibit varying exchange rates which are slower than some of the fast exchanging backbone amide protons. Differences in exchange rates of the E and Z protons of the same side-chain amide group are obtained by measuring exchange rates at pH values > 8. An NOE between a side-chain amide proton and a bound water molecule was also observed

  3. Australian Universities' Strategic Goals of Student Exchange and Participation Rates in Outbound Exchange Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Amanda; Barker, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    International student exchange programmes are acknowledged as one aspect of a broader suite of internationalisation strategies aimed at enhancing students' intercultural understanding and competence. The decision to participate in an exchange programme is dependent on both individual and contextual factors such as student exchange policies and…

  4. Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma Chandan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate in a Multiple Indicator Approach (MIA framework. This study has employed a monetary policy index of key monetary policy instruments in India (Bank rate, Cash Reserve Ratio, Repo and Reverse Repo rates. The study finds the empirical evidence for puzzling behavior of price level and exchange rate. Both price and exchange rate increase initially in response to a contractionary policy shock. Policy shocks affect output, inflation and exchange rate to an appreciable extent over a forecasting horizon of one year.

  5. Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and H2O fluxes from irrigated grain sorghum and maize in the Texas High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) fluxes from irrigated grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) and maize (Zea mays L.) fields in the Texas High Plains were quantified using the eddy covariance (EC) technique during 2014-2016 growing seasons and examined in...

  6. Exchange and Interest Rates prior to EMU: The Case of Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Antzoulatos, Angelos A.; Wilfling, Bernd

    2003-01-01

    Recently a variety of exchange and interest rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. While these stochastic equilibrium models in continous time are theoretically rigorous, a systematic and extensive empirical validation is still lacking. Using exchange and interest rate data collected prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001 this paper tries to fill the gap between theory and...

  7. Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Bankim Chadha; Eswar Prasad

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate and the business cycle in Japan during the floating rate period. A structural vector autoregression is used to identify different types of macroeconomic shocks that determine fluctuations in aggregate output and the real exchange rate. Relative nominal and real demand shocks are found to be the main determinants of variation in real exchange rate changes, whereas relative output growth is driven primarily by supply shocks. Hi...

  8. THE DETERMINATION OF THE COSTA RICA COLON/USD EXCHANGE RATE

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Hsing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to compare four major exchange rate models for the Costa Rica Colon. We examine exchange rate data for the Costa Rica/U.S. dollar relationship from 1981-2007 and find that monetary models have a higher explanatory ability whereas the Mundell-Fleming model performs better in forecasting exchange rates than other models. The coefficient of the interest rate differential in the uncovered interest parity model has a wrong sign.

  9. Intercomparisons of Prognostic, Diagnostic, and Inversion Modeling Approaches for Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange over the Pacific Northwest Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D. P.; Jacobson, A. R.; Nemani, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    The recent development of large spatially-explicit datasets for multiple variables relevant to monitoring terrestrial carbon flux offers the opportunity to estimate the terrestrial land flux using several alternative, potentially complimentary, approaches. Here we developed and compared regional estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. using three approaches. In the prognostic modeling approach, the process-based Biome-BGC model was driven by distributed meteorological station data and was informed by Landsat-based coverages of forest stand age and disturbance regime. In the diagnostic modeling approach, the quasi-mechanistic CFLUX model estimated net ecosystem production (NEP) by upscaling eddy covariance flux tower observations. The model was driven by distributed climate data and MODIS FPAR (the fraction of incident PAR that is absorbed by the vegetation canopy). It was informed by coarse resolution (1 km) data about forest stand age. In both the prognostic and diagnostic modeling approaches, emissions estimates for biomass burning, harvested products, and river/stream evasion were added to model-based NEP to get NEE. The inversion model (CarbonTracker) relied on observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration to optimize prior surface carbon flux estimates. The Pacific Northwest is heterogeneous with respect to land cover and forest management, and repeated surveys of forest inventory plots support the presence of a strong regional carbon sink. The diagnostic model suggested a stronger carbon sink than the prognostic model, and a much larger sink that the inversion model. The introduction of Landsat data on disturbance history served to reduce uncertainty with respect to regional NEE in the diagnostic and prognostic modeling approaches. The FPAR data was particularly helpful in capturing the seasonality of the carbon flux using the diagnostic modeling approach. The inversion approach took advantage of a global

  10. Biophysical controls on light response of net CO2 exchange in a winter wheat field in the North China Plain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojuan Tong

    Full Text Available To investigate the impacts of biophysical factors on light response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE, CO2 flux was measured using the eddy covariance technique in a winter wheat field in the North China Plain from 2003 to 2006. A rectangular hyperbolic function was used to describe NEE light response. Maximum photosynthetic capacity (P max was 46.6 ± 4.0 µmol CO2 m(-2 s(-1 and initial light use efficiency (α 0.059 ± 0.006 µmol µmol(-1 in April-May, two or three times as high as those in March. Stepwise multiple linear regressions showed that P max increased with the increase in leaf area index (LAI, canopy conductance (g c and air temperature (T a but declined with increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD (P25°C or VPD>1.1-1.3 kPa, NEE residual increased with the increase in T a and VPD (P<0.001, indicating that temperature and water stress occurred. When g c was more than 14 mm s(-1 in March and May and 26 mm s(-1 in April, the NEE residuals decline disappeared, or even turned into an increase in g c (P<0.01, implying shifts from stomatal limitation to non-stomatal limitation on NEE. Although the differences between sunny and cloudy sky conditions were unremarkable for light response parameters, simulated net CO2 uptake under the same radiation intensity averaged 18% higher in cloudy days than in sunny days during the year 2003-2006. It is necessary to include these effects in relevant carbon cycle models to improve our estimation of carbon balance at regional and global scales.

  11. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER measurements. An algorithm for probabilistically estimating AER was developed based on the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Infiltration model utilizing housing characteristics and meteorological data with adjustment for window opening behavior. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured AERs in four US cities (Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Elizabeth, NJ; and Houston, TX) inputting study-specific data. The impact on the modeled AER of using publically available housing data representative of the region for each city was also assessed. Finally, modeled AER based on region-specific inputs was compared with those estimated using literature-based distributions. While modeled AERs were similar in magnitude to the measured AER they were consistently lower for all cities except Houston. AERs estimated using region-specific inputs were lower than those using study-specific inputs due to differences in window opening probabilities. The algorithm produced more spatially and temporally variable AERs compared with literature-based distributions reflecting within- and between-city differences, helping reduce error in estimates of air pollutant exposure. Published in the Journal of

  12. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  13. International Energy Prices(Exchange Rate and PPP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, Sung Han; Yoo, Dong Heon [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2000-11-01

    Energy is to be specially important to the Korean economy. In the past the major purpose of Korea's energy policies was to ensure that the energy was supplied at the low cost to encourage and sustain economic development and growth. Therefore, energy prices are distorted by government intervention. And this was the cause of inefficiency in usage of energy. In order to improve the energy efficiency and reduce the environmental impact of energy consumption, new energy pricing should be needed to the energy industry and the Korean economy. It is necessary to compare the domestic energy prices with other countries to improve the energy pricing system including tax, the relative structure of energy price, etc. In order to compare the domestic energy prices to those of other countries, the exchange rate, purchasing power parity and Big Mac index are used for calculation of common currency. We select 12 countries, which are Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, Mexico and England. The oil products(gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil and light fuel oil), natural gas and electricity are selected to compare the price. (author). 12 refs., 13 tabs.

  14. 3ON PAK RUPEE EXCHANGE RATES: WHETHER STOCK OR FLOW MATTERS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razzaque H Bhatti

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines whether the monetary model or the flow model of exchange rate explains the long-run movements in Pak rupee exchange rates vis-à-vis the four major currencies – the US dollar, British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen – over the period 1983q1-2009q4. Results obtained by employing the Johansen and Juselius (1990 technique of cointegration are supportive of the monetary model in two Pak rupee exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar and the Swiss franc when both short- and long-run interest rates are used and of the flow model in three exchange rates vis-à-vis the British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen when the short-run interest rate is used. These results show that both stock equilibrium in capital markets and flow equilibrium in foreign exchange markets determine Pak rupee exchange rates.

  15. Annual net ecosystem exchanges of carbon dioxide and methane from a temperate brackish marsh: should the focus of marsh restoration be on brackish environments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Windham-Myers, L.; Anderson, F. E.; Bergamaschi, B. A.; Ferner, M. C.; Schile, L. M.; Spinelli, G.

    2015-12-01

    The exchange and transport of carbon in tidally driven, saline marsh ecosystems provide habitat and trophic support for coastal wildlife and fisheries, while potentially accumulating and storing carbon at some of the highest rates compared to other ecosystems. However, due to the predicted rise in sea level over the next century, the preservation and restoration of estuarine habitats is necessary to compensate for their expected decline. In addition, restoration of these marsh systems can also reduce the impacts of global climate change as they assimilate as much carbon as their freshwater counterparts, while emitting less methane due to the higher concentrations of sulfate in seawater. Unfortunately, in brackish marshes, with salinity concentrations less than 18 parts per thousand (ppt), simple relationships between methane production, salinity and sulfate concentrations are not well known. Here we present the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide and methane, as calculated by the eddy covariance method, from a brackish marsh ecosystem in the San Francisco Estuary where salinity ranges from oligohaline (0.5-5 ppt) to mesohaline (5-18 ppt) conditions. Daily rates of carbon dioxide and methane NEE ranged from approximately 10 gC-CO2 m-2 d-1 and 0 mgC-CH4 m-2 d-1, during the winter to -15 gC-CO2 m-2 d-1 and 30 mgC-CH4 m-2 d-1, in the summer growing season. A comparison between similar measurements made from freshwater wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta found that the daily rates of carbon dioxide NEE were similar, but daily rates of methane NEE were just a small fraction (0-15%). Our research also shows that the daily fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane at the brackish marsh were highly variable and may be influenced by the tidal exchanges of seawater. Furthermore, the observed decline in methane production from summer to fall may have resulted from a rise in salinity and/or a seasonal decline in water and air temperatures. Our research goals are

  16. The impact of rate design and net metering on the bill savings from distributed PV for residential customers in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darghouth, Naim R.; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Net metering has become a widespread mechanism in the U.S. for supporting customer adoption of distributed photovoltaics (PV), but has faced challenges as PV installations grow to a larger share of generation in a number of states. This paper examines the value of the bill savings that customers receive under net metering, and the associated role of retail rate design, based on a sample of approximately two hundred residential customers of California's two largest electric utilities. We find that the bill savings per kWh of PV electricity generated varies by more than a factor of four across the customers in the sample, which is largely attributable to the inclining block structure of the utilities' residential retail rates. We also compare the bill savings under net metering to that received under three potential alternative compensation mechanisms, based on California's Market Price Referent (MPR). We find that net metering provides significantly greater bill savings than a full MPR-based feed-in tariff, but only modestly greater savings than alternative mechanisms under which hourly or monthly net excess generation is compensated at the MPR rate. - Highlights: → We examine the value of bill savings under net metering to PV owners in California. → Bill savings per kWh of PV generation varies by a factor of four with net metering. The variation is attributable to rate design, the unique inclining block structure. → The median value of bill savings is reduced by 40-67% with MPR feed-in tariff. → The median value of bill savings is reduced by 6-12% with hourly netting.

  17. Causal Nexus between Stock Price, Demand for Money, Interest Rate, Foreign Institutional Investment, and Exchange Rates in India: A Post Subprime Crisis Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iti Vyas

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  makes  an  attempt  to  empirically  examine  the  causal  nexus  between  stock price, demand for money, interest rates, foreign institutional investment and exchange rates in India in the post subprime mortgage crisis period. The study employed Granger causality test, Vector Auto Regression and Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure to examine the short  run  and  long  run  dynamic  interaction  among  the  above  mentioned  variables  for  the period January 1993 to May 2009. The major indings of the study are: stock return affects exchange rate return, net foreign institutional investment and growth of demand for money. Growth  of  demand  for  money,  in  turn,  affects  interest  rate.  Interest  rate  is  more  affected by exchange rate return. Foreign institutional investment also affects interest rate. The co-integration  test  conirms  that  there  does  not  exist  any  long  run  equilibrium  relationship between stock return and exchange rate return ";} // -->activate javascript

  18. Size and growth rate differences of larval Baltic sprat Sprattus sprattus collected with bongo and MIK nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fey, D P

    2015-01-01

    The effect of sampling with bongo (0·6 m diameter frame with 500 µm mesh) and Methot Isaac Kidd (MIK) (2 m diameter frame with 2 mm mesh finished with 500 µm codend) nets on standard length (LS ) range and growth rate differences was tested for larval Sprattus sprattus (n = 906, LS range: 7·0-34·5 mm) collected during four cruises in the summer months of 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010 in the southern Baltic Sea. Although the minimum size of larvae collected with the bongo and MIK nets was similar in each cruise (from c. 7 to 9 mm), the MIK nets permitted collecting larger specimens (up to c. 34 mm) than the bongo nets did (up to c. 27 mm). The growth rates of larvae collected with the bongo and MIK nets (specimens of the same size range were compared for three cruises) were not statistically different (mean = 0·55 mm day(-1) , n = 788, LS range: 7·0-27·4 mm), which means the material collected with these two nets can be combined and growth rate results between them were compared. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  19. Choice of optimal exchange rate system For the Republic of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dražen Koški

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of research whose results are presented in this article was to choose the optimal system of exchange rate for the Republic of Croatia, of course before its accession to EU. The analyzed exchange rate systems here range from free-floating exchange rate to system without domestic currency in circulation. Naturally, the classification of International Monetary Fond is included in it. After that, the comparison of basic economic advantages and disadvantages of the fixed exchange rate in relation to floating exchange rate were carried out. Although the question is about the extreme systems, disregarding the system without domestic currency in circulation, their comparison makes possible completely satisfactory basis for the right conclusions on the choice of optimal exchange rate system for the Republic of Croatia. Considering its economic particularities, the system of managed-floating exchange rate without proclaimed exchange direction in advance is certainly optimal for the Republic of Croatia. Namely, within the framework of this system the limited floating exchange rates decrease the foreign exchange risk allowing to monetary authorities, at least partly, the independent monetary policy

  20. A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Vilela Vieira

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (fixed and random effects for the real exchange rate in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We provide an alternative set of estimates of RER misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated real exchange rate helps (harms long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

  1. Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet BEŞKAYA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic and political factors on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy. Our data covers the period of 1980-2013 for the selected EU countries, namely, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Denmark, England, Sweden and Italy. Estimation results demonstrates that the choice of fixed exchange rate regime become disadvantageous and flexible exchange rate turn out to be the right choice as financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democratization increases.

  2. The Behavior of Interest Rate Differentials Under Shifting Exchange Rate Regimes: The Experience of Chile, Colombia and Israel

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Ibarra

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of the interest rate differential across band and floating exchange rate regimes in Chile, Colombia and Israel, and in a benchmark group composed of Italy, Portugal and Spain. Significant differences in the interest rate-exchange rate link are found between the two groups, irrespective of regime. However, in all countries, except Italy, the interest differential ceased to behave anti-cyclically against output after the adoption of floating, possibly because of ...

  3. Influence of Subjectivity in Geological Mapping on the Net Penetration Rate Prediction for a Hard Rock TBM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Yongbeom; Macias, Francisco Javier; Jakobsen, Pål Drevland; Bruland, Amund

    2018-05-01

    The net penetration rate of hard rock tunnel boring machines (TBM) is influenced by rock mass degree of fracturing. This influence is taken into account in the NTNU prediction model by the rock mass fracturing factor ( k s). k s is evaluated by geological mapping, the measurement of the orientation of fractures and the spacing of fractures and fracture type. Geological mapping is a subjective procedure. Mapping results can therefore contain considerable uncertainty. The mapping data of a tunnel mapped by three researchers were compared, and the influence of the variation in geological mapping was estimated to assess the influence of subjectivity in geological mapping. This study compares predicted net penetration rates and actual net penetration rates for TBM tunneling (from field data) and suggests mapping methods that can reduce the error related to subjectivity. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) variation of mapping data between individuals; (2) effect of observed variation on uncertainty in predicted net penetration rates; (3) influence of mapping methods on the difference between predicted and actual net penetration rate.

  4. Assessing net ecosystem carbon exchange of U S terrestrial ecosystems by integrating eddy covariance flux measurements and satellite observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue University; Law, Beverly E. [Oregon State University; Baldocchi, Dennis [University of California, Berkeley; Ma, Siyan [University of California, Berkeley; Chen, Jiquan [University of Toledo, Toledo, OH; Richardson, Andrew [Harvard University; Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Laboratory; Davis, Ken J. [Pennsylvania State University; Hollinger, D. [USDA Forest Service; Wharton, Sonia [University of California, Davis; Falk, Matthias [University of California, Davis; Paw, U. Kyaw Tha [University of California, Davis; Oren, Ram [Duke University; Katulk, Gabriel G. [Duke University; Noormets, Asko [North Carolina State University; Fischer, Marc [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL); Verma, Shashi [University of Nebraska; Suyker, A. E. [University of Nebraska, Lincoln; Cook, David R. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Sun, G. [USDA Forest Service; McNulty, Steven G. [USDA Forest Service; Wofsy, Steve [Harvard University; Bolstad, Paul V [University of Minnesota; Burns, Sean [University of Colorado, Boulder; Monson, Russell K. [University of Colorado, Boulder; Curtis, Peter [Ohio State University, The, Columbus; Drake, Bert G. [Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD; Foster, David R. [Harvard University; Gu, Lianhong [ORNL; Hadley, Julian L. [Harvard University; Litvak, Marcy [University of New Mexico, Albuquerque; Martin, Timothy A. [University of Florida, Gainesville; Matamala, Roser [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Meyers, Tilden [NOAA, Oak Ridge, TN; Oechel, Walter C. [San Diego State University; Schmid, H. P. [Indiana University; Scott, Russell L. [USDA ARS; Torn, Margaret S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)

    2011-01-01

    More accurate projections of future carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and associated climate change depend on improved scientific understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Despite the consensus that U.S. terrestrial ecosystems provide a carbon sink, the size, distribution, and interannual variability of this sink remain uncertain. Here we report a terrestrial carbon sink in the conterminous U.S. at 0.63 pg C yr 1 with the majority of the sink in regions dominated by evergreen and deciduous forests and savannas. This estimate is based on our continuous estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) with high spatial (1 km) and temporal (8-day) resolutions derived from NEE measurements from eddy covariance flux towers and wall-to-wall satellite observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We find that the U.S. terrestrial ecosystems could offset a maximum of 40% of the fossil-fuel carbon emissions. Our results show that the U.S. terrestrial carbon sink varied between 0.51 and 0.70 pg C yr 1 over the period 2001 2006. The dominant sources of interannual variation of the carbon sink included extreme climate events and disturbances. Droughts in 2002 and 2006 reduced the U.S. carbon sink by 20% relative to a normal year. Disturbances including wildfires and hurricanes reduced carbon uptake or resulted in carbon release at regional scales. Our results provide an alternative, independent, and novel constraint to the U.S. terrestrial carbon sink.

  5. effect of different rates of wood ash on exchangeable aluminum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BARTH

    because other sources of protein namely, meat, eggs, fish, and milk ... Soil pH was determined by electrometric method using a soil water ... Soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) was measured ..... Bermudagrass and on Soil Nutrient Retention.

  6. Effects of winter temperature and summer drought on net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in a temperate peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfter, Carole; Campbell, Claire; Dinsmore, Kerry; Drewer, Julia; Coyle, Mhairi; Anderson, Margaret; Skiba, Ute; Nemitz, Eiko; Billett, Michael; Sutton, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Northern peatlands are one of the most important global sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2); their ability to sequester C is a natural feedback mechanism controlled by climatic variables such as precipitation, temperature, length of growing season and period of snow cover. In the UK it has been predicted that peatlands could become a net source of carbon in response to climate change with climate models predicting a rise in global temperature of ca. 3oC between 1961-1990 and 2100. Land-atmosphere exchange of CO2in peatlands exhibits marked seasonal and inter-annual variations, which have significant short- and long-term effects on carbon sink strength. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 has been measured continuously by eddy-covariance (EC) at Auchencorth Moss (55° 47'32 N, 3° 14'35 W, 267 m a.s.l.), a temperate peatland in central Scotland, since 2002. Auchencorth Moss is a low-lying, ombrotrophic peatland situated ca. 20 km south-west of Edinburgh. Peat depth ranges from 5 m and the site has a mean annual precipitation of 1155 mm. The vegetation present within the flux measurement footprint comprises mixed grass species, heather and substantial areas of moss species (Sphagnum spp. and Polytrichum spp.). The EC system consists of a LiCOR 7000 closed-path infrared gas analyser for the simultaneous measurement of CO2 and water vapour and of a Gill Windmaster Pro ultrasonic anemometer. Over the 10 year period, the site was a consistent yet variable sink of CO2 ranging from -34.1 to -135.9 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1 (mean of -69.1 ± 33.6 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1). Inter-annual variability in NEE was positively correlated to the length of the growing seasons and mean winter air temperature explained 93% of the variability in summertime sink strength, indicating a phenological memory-effect. Plant development and productivity were stunted by colder winters causing a net reduction in the annual carbon sink strength of this peatland where autotrophic processes are thought to be

  7. Exchange rate pass-through and the role of international distribution channels

    OpenAIRE

    Desiraju, Ramarao; Shrikhande, Milind

    1996-01-01

    Manufacturers selling in foreign markets often do not completely pass on the effects of fluctuations in exchange rates to the prices of their products. Our paper addresses this puzzle and studies the effects of the international distribution channel on exchange rate pass-through. We develop an exchange rate pass-through model that takes into account the role of an intermediary between a domestic manufacturer and its consumers in a foreign market. We find that the magnitude of the pass-through...

  8. ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE LINKED SUBSIDIES FOR NON-PRICE EXPORT PROMOTION: THE CASE OF COTTON

    OpenAIRE

    Paudel, Laxmi; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.; Kinnucan, Henry W.

    2002-01-01

    An equilibrium displacement framework was developed to evaluate the effect of exchange rate linked subsidies for non-price export promotion for US cotton. Study results show that an increase in promotion expenditure increased the dollar value and producer welfare of cotton growers. The gross gain to the domestic cotton producers from the exchange-rate linked subsidy scheme was positive. These evidences support exchange rate linked subsidies for US cotton export promotion.

  9. Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Dong

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. We develop and estimate a structural general equilibrium two-sector model with sticky prices and wages and limited exchange rate pass-through. Different specifications for the monetary policy rule and the real exchange rate process are examined. The results indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Engla...

  10. The source of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand: Real shock or nominal shock

    OpenAIRE

    Le Thanh, Binh

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the source of exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand. We employed a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model with the long-run neutrality restriction of Blanchard and Quah (1989) to investigate the changes in real and nominal exchange rates from 1994 to 2015. In this paper, we assume that there are two types of shocks which related to exchange rate movements: real shocks and nominal shocks. The empirical analysis indicates that real shocks are the fundamental compon...

  11. Exchange Rate Exposure and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of the UK Companies

    OpenAIRE

    He, Jiao

    2010-01-01

    This study assesses whether the unexpected exchange rate movements volatilize the UK firms’ stock return based on the firm- and industry-level analysis, and examines whether the magnitude of the exchange rate exposure is determined by the firm-specific factors. Using a sample of 244 UK companies listed in the FTSE 350 during the test period between December 1999 and December 2009, the result documents that the exchange rate fluctuation does affect the firm value. Among the five introduced ex...

  12. Real Exchange Rate Variability: An Empirical Analysis of the Developing Countries Case

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian Edwards

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential role of monetary and real factors in explaining real exchange rate variability in developing countries. For this purpose two indexes of real effective exchange rate variability that measure short-term and long-term variability were constructed for 30 countries. The results obtained, using a generalized least squares procedures on cross section data, indicate that real exchange rate variability has been affected both by real and monetar...

  13. Macroeconomic Effects of Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes: New Insights into the Role of Price Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Kollmann, Robert

    2004-01-01

    This Paper analyses the effects of pegged and floating exchange rates using a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model that is calibrated to the US and a European aggregate. The model assumes shocks to money, productivity and the interest parity condition. It captures the fact that the sharp increase in nominal exchange rate volatility after the abandonment of the Bretton Woods (BW) system was accompanied by a commensurate rise in real exchange rate volatility, but had no pronounced effe...

  14. Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Paul De Grauwe; Gunther Schnabl

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores the impact of the exchange rate regime on inflation and output in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU candidate countries. The panel estimations for the period between 1994 and 2002 show that de facto measures of exchange rate stability have a better explanatory power than the de jure measures in the inflation and growth equations. For the whole observation period the estimations reveal a significant impact of exchange rate stability on low inflation as well as a hig...

  15. The Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on Import and Export Trade in China

    OpenAIRE

    Wanhui Jiang

    2014-01-01

    The exchange rate volatility always plays a key role in import and export trade. This paper investigates the effect of nominal RMB exchange rate volatility on economic growth in China from 1981 to 2012. Through the ADF stationary test, the co-integration test, and the associated econometric model and the empirical analysis, the paper concludes that in the long run, exchange rate change has a positive impact on import and export trade. Therefore, it is necessary to take relevant policies and m...

  16. Forecasting Exchange Rate Density Using Parametric Models: the Case of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Miranda Tabak

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs a recently developed parametric technique to obtain density forecasts for the Brazilian exchange rate, using the exchange rate options market. Empirical results suggest that the option market contains useful information about future exchange rate density. These results suggests that density forecasts using options markets may add value for portfolio and risk management, and may be useful for financial regulators to assess financial stability.

  17. An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on Economic Activities in Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    NARA BAHADUR THAPA

    2002-01-01

    This paper tests the relationship between REER and GDP on the Nepalese economy. In the literature, two channels of transmission exist for the real exchange rate to affect economic activities; these are the aggregate demand channel and the aggregate supply channel. The traditional view has it that the real exchange rate operates through the aggregate demand channel. This means that the depreciation of the real exchange rate enhances the international competitiveness of domestic goods, boosts n...

  18. An Empirical Assessment of the Real Exchange Rate and Poverty in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Ben. U. Omojimite; Victor E. Oriavwote

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigated the influence of the real exchange rate on poverty within the framework of a dependent economy model. Using data covering 1980 to 2010, the result of a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) showed that the volatility of the real exchange rate has significant influence on the level of poverty in Nigeria. Thus, government policies that targets real exchange rate could play significant role in reducing the level of poverty in Nigeria, particularly if supported by basic ins...

  19. A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE FOR THE IMPACT OF SINGAPORE'S EXCHANGE RATE ON COMPETITIVENESS

    OpenAIRE

    JANG PING THIA

    2010-01-01

    Services form a larger part of the Singapore economy. However, it is difficult to analyze the exchange rate impact on services due to the lack of price data. Regression of output or export on exchange rate, while highly intuitive, is likely to suffer from the endogeneity problem since Singapore's exchange rate is used as a counter-cyclical policy tool. This results in inconsistent estimates. I propose a novel approach to overcome these limitations by using Hong Kong as a control for Singapore...

  20. THREATS AND BENEFITS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES FOR UKRAINE IN TERMS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

    OpenAIRE

    Svitlana Glushchenko; Svitlana Tkalenko

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to determine threats and benefits of exchange rate regimes in terms of the integration of Ukraine into the European community. Emphasizing features of the manifestation of currency exchange rate in Ukrainian practice is a precondition for choosing the optimal exchange rate regime for Ukraine, which, in its turn, will provide an opportunity to reduce inflation and implement effective tools of monetary and fiscal policies to promote further economic growth and compet...

  1. Choice of optimal exchange rate system For the Republic of Croatia

    OpenAIRE

    Dražen Koški

    2008-01-01

    The aim of research whose results are presented in this article was to choose the optimal system of exchange rate for the Republic of Croatia, of course before its accession to EU. The analyzed exchange rate systems here range from free-floating exchange rate to system without domestic currency in circulation. Naturally, the classification of International Monetary Fond is included in it. After that, the comparison of basic economic advantages and disadvantages of the fixed exchan...

  2. Inflation, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Ghana: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Nchor

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movement and the nominal interest rate on inflation in Ghana. It also looks at the presence of the Fisher Effect and the International Fisher Effect scenarios. It makes use of an autoregressive distributed lag model and an unrestricted error correction model. Ordinary Least Squares regression methods were also employed to determine the presence of the Fischer Effect and the International Fisher Effect. The results from the study show that in the short run a percentage point increase in the level of depreciation of the Ghana cedi leads to an increase in the rate of inflation by 0.20%. A percentage point increase in the level of nominal interest rates however results in a decrease in inflation by 0.98%. Inflation increases by 1.33% for every percentage point increase in the nominal interest rate in the long run. An increase in inflation on the other hand increases the nominal interest rate by 0.51% which demonstrates the partial Fisher effect. A 1% increase in the interest rate differential leads to a depreciation of the Ghana cedi by approximately 1% which indicates the full International Fisher effect.

  3. Differential responses of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide to light and temperature between spring and neap tides in subtropical mangrove forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Lu, Weizhi; Chen, Hui; Luo, Yiqi; Lin, Guanghui

    2014-01-01

    The eddy flux data with field records of tidal water inundation depths of the year 2010 from two mangroves forests in southern China were analyzed to investigate the tidal effect on mangrove carbon cycle. We compared the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its responses to light and temperature, respectively, between spring tide and neap tide inundation periods. For the most time of the year 2010, higher daytime NEE values were found during spring tides than during neap tides at both study sites. Regression analysis of daytime NEE to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) using the Landsberg model showed increased sensitivity of NEE to PAR with higher maximum photosynthetic rate during spring tides than neap tides. In contrast, the light compensation points acquired from the regression function of the Landsberg model were smaller during spring tides than neap tides in most months. The dependence of nighttime NEE on soil temperature was lower under spring tide than under neap tides. All these results above indicated that ecosystem carbon uptake rates of mangrove forests were strengthened, while ecosystem respirations were inhibited during spring tides in comparison with those during neap tides, which needs to be considered in modeling mangrove ecosystem carbon cycle under future sea level rise scenarios.

  4. The specification of cross exchange rate equations used to test Purchasing Power Parity

    OpenAIRE

    Hunter, J; Simpson, M

    2004-01-01

    The Article considers the speciÞcation of models used to test Pur- chasing Power Parity when applied to cross exchange rates. SpeciÞcally, conventional dynamic models used to test stationarity of the real exchange rate are likely to be misspeciÞed, except when the parameters of each ex- change rate equation are the same

  5. Design and simulation of heat exchangers using Aspen HYSYS, and Aspen exchanger design and rating for paddy drying application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janaun, J.; Kamin, N. H.; Wong, K. H.; Tham, H. J.; Kong, V. V.; Farajpourlar, M.

    2016-06-01

    Air heating unit is one of the most important parts in paddy drying to ensure the efficiency of a drying process. In addition, an optimized air heating unit does not only promise a good paddy quality, but also save more for the operating cost. This study determined the suitable and best specifications heating unit to heat air for paddy drying in the LAMB dryer. In this study, Aspen HYSYS v7.3 was used to obtain the minimum flow rate of hot water needed. The resulting data obtained from Aspen HYSYS v7.3 were used in Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR) to generate heat exchanger design and costs. The designs include shell and tubes and plate heat exchanger. The heat exchanger was designed in order to produce various drying temperatures of 40, 50, 60 and 70°C of air with different flow rate, 300, 2500 and 5000 LPM. The optimum condition for the heat exchanger were found to be plate heat exchanger with 0.6 mm plate thickness, 198.75 mm plate width, 554.8 mm plate length and 11 numbers of plates operating at 5000 LPM air flow rate.

  6. The Influence of International Parity on the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity and International Fisher Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Oana Mionel

    2012-01-01

    This article assesses the impact of the inflation and interest rates on the exchange rates. The analysis tests the relation between the inflation rate and the exchange rate by applying the Purchasing Power Parity Theory, while the relation between the interest rate and the inflation rate is tested by applying the International Fisher Effect Theory. In order to test the Purchasing Power Parity the study takes into account the period of time between 1990 – 2009, and the following countries – th...

  7. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND PROTECTION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Handan AKSUYEK,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available As with all sectors, recent extreme changes occurred in the exchange rates have substantially affected the construction operations. While the rise in foreign exchange rates leads to harmful effects in the negative direction at the operations having foreign exchange – based debt or it provides also advantageous effect in the positive direction at the construction companies having foreign exchange – indexed investments. In this context, this sudden change in foreign exchange rates which cannot be predicted beforehand and emerges as a result of speculative events. As with all operations carrying out foreign exchange – based tasks, these fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate head first among the factors which affect the achievement or failure of the cost or profit targets previously determined by the construction companies as well. Therefore, the companies whose costs and profits consist of different units of currency in their construction agreements should apply to the hedging methods in order to be protected against the exchange rate. As for the main tools of protection method are the derivative products such as forward, futures, swap and optional contracts. In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the completion costs of construction projects is scrutinized. Moreover, the tools which may be employed by the construction companies in order to get rid of exchange rate which adversely influence the building companies in both directions have been comparatively evaluated.

  8. Increased CEST specificity for amide and fast-exchanging amine protons using exchange-dependent relaxation rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Yong; Wang, Feng; Xu, Junzhong; Gochberg, Daniel F; Gore, John C; Zu, Zhongliang

    2018-02-01

    Chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) imaging of amides at 3.5 ppm and fast-exchanging amines at 3 ppm provides a unique means to enhance the sensitivity of detection of, for example, proteins/peptides and neurotransmitters, respectively, and hence can provide important information on molecular composition. However, despite the high sensitivity relative to conventional magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), in practice, CEST often has relatively poor specificity. For example, CEST signals are typically influenced by several confounding effects, including direct water saturation (DS), semi-solid non-specific magnetization transfer (MT), the influence of water relaxation times (T 1w ) and nearby overlapping CEST signals. Although several editing techniques have been developed to increase the specificity by removing DS, semi-solid MT and T 1w influences, it is still challenging to remove overlapping CEST signals from different exchanging sites. For instance, the amide proton transfer (APT) signal could be contaminated by CEST effects from fast-exchanging amines at 3 ppm and intermediate-exchanging amines at 2 ppm. The current work applies an exchange-dependent relaxation rate (R ex ) to address this problem. Simulations demonstrate that: (1) slowly exchanging amides and fast-exchanging amines have distinct dependences on irradiation powers; and (2) R ex serves as a resonance frequency high-pass filter to selectively reduce CEST signals with resonance frequencies closer to water. These characteristics of R ex provide a means to isolate the APT signal from amines. In addition, previous studies have shown that CEST signals from fast-exchanging amines have no distinct features around their resonance frequencies. However, R ex gives Lorentzian lineshapes centered at their resonance frequencies for fast-exchanging amines and thus can significantly increase the specificity of CEST imaging for amides and fast-exchanging amines. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons

  9. Dynamical analyses of the time series for three foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sehyun; Kim, Soo Yong; Jung, Jae-Won; Kim, Kyungsik

    2012-05-01

    In this study, we investigate the multifractal properties of three foreign exchange rates (USD-KRW, USD-JPY, and EUR-USD) that are quoted with different economic scales. We estimate and analyze both the generalized Hurst exponent and the autocorrelation function in three foreign exchange rates. The USD-KRW is shown to have the strongest of the Hurst exponents when compared with the other two foreign exchange rates. In particular, the autocorrelation function of the USD-KRW has the largest memory behavior among three foreign exchange rates. It also exhibits a long-memory property in the first quarter, more than those in the other quarters.

  10. Isotopic exchange rate of sodium ions between hydrous metal oxides and aqueous solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Yasushi; Yamazaki, Hiromichi

    1991-01-01

    To elucidate the kinetics of ion-exchange reaction on hydrous metal oxide, the isotopic exchange rates of sodium ions between hydrous metal oxides such as hydrous tin (IV), niobium (V), zirconium (IV) and titanium (IV) oxides, and aqueous solutions were measured radiochemically and compared with each other. The rate of reaction cannot be understood by an unified view since the rate controlling step differs with the kind of exchangers. The rate constants relevant to each exchanger such as diffusion constants and their activation energies were also determined. (author)

  11. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  12. Estimating Exchange Rate Exposure over Various Return Horizons: Focusing on Major Countries in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong Wook Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate exposure, indicating the effect of exchange rate movements on firm values, for a sample of 1,400 firms in seven East Asian countries. The exposure estimates based on various exchange rate variables, return horizons and a control variable are compared. A key result from our analysis is that the long term effect of exchange rate movements on firm values is greater than the short term effect. And we find very similar results from using other exchange rate variables such as the U.S. dollar exchange rate, etc. Second, we add exchange rate volatility as a control variable and find that the extent of exposure is not much changed. Third, we examine the changes in exposure to exchange rate volatility with an increase in return horizon. Consequently the ratio of firms with significant exposures increases with the return horizons. Interestingly, the increase of exposure with the return horizons is faster for exposure to volatility than for exposure to exchange rate itself. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest that the so-called "exposure puzzle" may be a matter of the methodology used to measure exposure.

  13. Some stylised facts about the exchange rate behaviour of Central European currencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Vejmělek

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates developments of exchange rate time series of Central European currencies and tries to find evidence of some stylised facts. Statistical methods and an econometric approach to the univariate time series modelling of high-frequency data, i.e., daily, are used. The main conclusions are as follows: (1 All the CE nominal exchange time series are not stationary: nevertheless, stationarity of all the return time series was confirmed. (2 Volatility clustering was proven and the GARCH modelling approach was successfully applied, including asymmetric modelling of volatility. (3 The more flexible an exchange rate regime is, the more volatile the respective currency. This is true for both nominal and real exchange rates. While nominal volatility is lower than real volatility in a system of fixed or less flexible exchange rates, the opposite is true for flexible systems: exchange rate volatility is higher in nominal terms than in real terms.

  14. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  15. The Banks Rating Analysis The Differences Between The Regional Development Banks And Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks In Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Irwan Ch

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze the bank rating in terms of differences the financial performance between the Regional Development Banks and Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks. It is consist of capital adequacy asset quality profitability Return On Asset ROA Return on Equity ROE Net Interest Margin NIM and Liquidity Loan to Deposit Ratio. The fulfillment of capital adequacy and asset quality of the bank groups did not differed significantly while in terms of profitability and liquidity there are significant differences. The earning difference is more likely due to the Regional Development Banks sources of funds for the implementation of the Local Government Cash Holder function as the Provincial Government and District City. The difference of liquidity are showed by the performance of Regional Development Banks and the Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks in lendingfinancing whereas the two groups of banks on average are still relatively low in lending.

  16. Net herbage accumulation rate and crude protein content of Urochloa brizantha cultivars under shade intensities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto de Lima Meirelles

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of silvopastoral systems is a sustainable alternative for animal production in various regions of the Brazil. However to obtain satisfactory results in these systems, the selection of forage species that grows well in the shade should be done. The tolerance of plants to light restriction and the correctly choice of species, considering good nutritional values for these conditions has great importance. The study of artificial shading for forage production helps the clarification of issues related to the behavior of plants under reduced light prior to use in integrations with forests. The aim of the study was to evaluate the net herbage accumulation rate of forage (HAR and crude protein (CP of Urochloa brizantha cultivars (Marandu and Piatã under natural light and shading of 30 and 60%. The experiment was conducted at FMVZ - UNESP, Botucatu. The experimental design was a randomized block in factorial arrangement 3 x 2 (three shading levels: 0, 30 and 60%, two cultivars: Marandu and Piatã with three replications and repeated measures (3 cuts. Sample collection occurred when the cultivars reached 35 cm in height. The treatments with shading showed lower cutting intervals as compared to those subjected to full sunlight, because they have reached in a shorter time to time as determined cut-off criterion (mean of 37, 45 and 61 days for reduction of 60%, reduction of 30% and full sun. Significant effects (P<0.05 interaction cultivar x shade x cut on the net herbage accumulation rate (HAR. Most HAR (P<0.05 was observed for cv. Marandu 60% reduction in lightness (127 kg/ha/day due to increased production of stem during the first growing cycle. The lower HAR also occurred to Marandu, but under natural light in the third cut (34 kg/ha/day due to adverse weather conditions during the growth interval. The shadow effect and the cutting (P<0.05 affected CP. The percentage of CP on cultivars showed the highest values (average value of 9.27% in 60

  17. Foreign exchange risk management : how are the largest non-financial companies in Norway managing their foreign exchange rate exposure?

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksen, Krister; Wedøe, Ola

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the largest non-financial companies in Norway manage their foreign exchange rate exposure. This is investigated through the use of a survey distributed to a sample the largest non-financial firms in Norway. According to our results, the largest non-financial companies in Norway have a predefined strategy for managing foreign exchange risk, which is defined by the board of directors or by the management in the organisation. The companies’ mai...

  18. [Effects of reduced solar radiation on winter wheat flag leaf net photosynthetic rate].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, You-Fei; Ni, Yan-Li; Mai, Bo-Ru; Wu, Rong-Jun; Feng, Yan; Sun, Jian; Li, Jian; Xu, Jing-Xin

    2011-06-01

    Taking winter wheat Triticum aestivum L. (cv. Yangmai 13) as test material, a field experiment was conducted in Nanjing City to study the effects of simulated reduced solar radiation on the diurnal variation of winter wheat flag leaf photosynthetic rate and the main affecting factors. Five treatments were installed, i. e., 15% (T15), 20% (T20) , 40% (T40), 60% (T60), and 100% (CK) of total incident solar radiation. Reduced solar irradiance increased the chlorophyll and lutein contents significantly, but decreased the net photosynthetic rate (Pn). Under different solar irradiance, the diurnal variation of Pn had greater difference, and the daily maximum Pn was in the order of CK > T60 > T40 > T 20 > T15. In CK, the Pn exhibited a double peak diurnal curve; while in the other four treatments, the Pn showed a single peak curve, and the peak was lagged behind that of CK. Correlation analysis showed that reduced solar irradiance was the main factor affecting the diurnal variation of Pn, but the physiological parameters also played important roles in determining the diurnal variation of Pn. In treatments T60 and T40, the photosynthesis active radiation (PAR), leaf temperature (T1) , stomatal conductance (Gs) , and transpiration rate (Tr) were significantly positively correlated with Pn, suggesting their positive effects on Pn. The intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) and stomatal limitation (Ls) had significant negative correlations with Pn in treatments T60 and T40 but significant positive correlations with Pn in treatments T20 and T15, implying that the Ci and Ls had negative (or positive) effects on Pn when the solar irradiance was higher (or lower) than 40% of incident solar irradiance.

  19. Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

  20. PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data

    OpenAIRE

    Georgios E. Chortareas; Rebecca L. Driver

    2001-01-01

    This paper examines the evidence for two of the relationships that underpin (explicitly or implicitly) much of international macroeconomics. The first is purchasing power parity (PPP), or the hypothesis that there exists a constant long-run equilibrium real exchange rate. The second establishes a relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. The tests are conducted on a panel of 18 OECD economies using the United States as a numeraire for the post-Bretton Wood...

  1. Quantitative Comparisons on the Intrinsic Features of Foreign Exchange Rates Between the 1920s and the 2010s: Case of the USD-GBP Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Wook Han

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.

  2. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  3. Lessons from simultaneous measurements of soil respiration and net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renchon, A.; Pendall, E.

    2017-12-01

    Land-surface exchanges of CO2 play a key role in ameliorating or exacerbating climate change. The eddy-covariance method allows direct measurement of net ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of CO2 (NEE), but partitioning daytime NEE into its components - gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) - remains challenging. Continuous measurements of soil respiration (RS), along with flux towers, have the potential to better constrain data and models of RE and GPP. We use simultaneous half-hourly NEE and RS data to: (1) compare the short-term (fortnightly) apparent temperature sensitivity (Q10) of nighttime RS and RE; (2) assess whether daytime RS can be estimated using nighttime response functions; and (3) compare the long-term (annual) responses of nighttime RS and nighttime RE to interacting soil moisture and soil temperature. We found that nighttime RS has a lower short-term Q10 than nighttime RE. This suggests that the Q10 of nighttime RE is strongly influenced by the Q10 of nighttime above-ground respiration, or possibly by a bias in RE measurements. The short-term Q10 of RS and RE decreased with increasing temperature. In general, daytime RS could be estimated using nighttime RS temperature and soil moisture (r2 = 0.9). However, this results from little to no diurnal variation in RS, and estimating daytime RS as the average of nighttime RS gave similar results (r2 = 0.9). Furthermore, we observed a day-night hysteresis of RS response to temperature, especially when using air temperature and sometimes when using soil temperature at 5cm depth. In fact, during some months, soil respiration observations were lower during daytime compared to nighttime, despite higher temperature in daytime. Therefore, daytime RS modelled from nighttime RS temperature response was overestimated during these periods. RS and RE responses to the combination of soil moisture and soil temperature were similar, and consistent with the DAMM model of soil-C decomposition. These

  4. Some Tests of Random Walk Hypothesis for Bulgarian Foreign Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolai Gueorguiev

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to check if the exchange rate in newly emerged, relatively thin foreign exchange markets, follows a random walk pattern. The findings of the current study cast doubts on random walk presence in Bulgarian exchange rates against major international currencies. It turns out that the series of daily returns are stationary but correlated and therefore can be modelled better by higher-order ARIMA processes than by random walk.

  5. Exchange Rate – Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

    2005-01-01

    The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Mala...

  6. A bacterial cytotoxin identifies the RhoA exchange factor Net1 as a key effector in the response to DNA damage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Guerra

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Exposure of adherent cells to DNA damaging agents, such as the bacterial cytolethal distending toxin (CDT or ionizing radiations (IR, activates the small GTPase RhoA, which promotes the formation of actin stress fibers and delays cell death. The signalling intermediates that regulate RhoA activation and promote cell survival are unknown. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We demonstrate that the nuclear RhoA-specific Guanine nucleotide Exchange Factor (GEF Net1 becomes dephosphorylated at a critical inhibitory site in cells exposed to CDT or IR. Expression of a dominant negative Net1 or Net1 knock down by iRNA prevented RhoA activation, inhibited the formation of stress fibers, and enhanced cell death, indicating that Net1 activation is required for this RhoA-mediated responses to genotoxic stress. The Net1 and RhoA-dependent signals involved activation of the Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase p38 and its downstream target MAPK-activated protein kinase 2. SIGNIFICANCE: Our data highlight the importance of Net1 in controlling RhoA and p38 MAPK mediated cell survival in cells exposed to DNA damaging agents and illustrate a molecular pathway whereby chronic exposure to a bacterial toxin may promote genomic instability.

  7. Studies of the hydrous titanium oxide ion exchanger. 4. Rate of the isotopic exchange of sodium ions between the exchanger in the Na+ form and aqueous solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Yasushi; Yamazaki, Hiromichi; Kasuga, Fuminori

    1995-01-01

    The isotopic exchange rate of Na + between hydrous titanium(IV) oxides, precipitated at pH 6 and 13, in the Na + form and aqueous solution of sodium salt was determined radiochemically. The rate in the exchanger precipitated at pH 6 is controlled by the diffusion of Na + in the exchanger particles (particle diffusion). The diffusion coefficient and its activation energy are 1.9 x 10 -11 m 2 s -1 (pH 12, 5.0degC) and 29 kJ mol -1 (pH 12), respectively. The rate in the exchanger precipitated at pH 13 is also controlled by the particle diffusion. The rate is much slower than that in the other; this can be explained by assuming the existence of two kinds of independently diffusing ions (fast and slow species) in the exchanger. The diffusion coefficients are of the order of 10 -12 and 10 -13 m 2 s -1 for the fast and the slow species, respectively. Their activation energies are 48-60 kJ mol -1 at pH 12. The marked difference in kinetics between two exchanges was interpreted in terms of the difference in the acid-base property and in the microstructure of the matrix. (author)

  8. Quantitation of chemical exchange rates using pulsed-field-gradient diffusion measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrec, Michael; Prestegard, James H.

    1997-01-01

    A new approach to the quantitation of chemical exchange rates is presented, and its utility is illustrated with application to the exchange of protein amide protons with bulk water. The approach consists of a selective-inversion exchange HMQC experiment in which a short spin echo diffusion filter has been inserted into the exchange period. In this way, the kinetics of exchange are encoded directly in an apparent diffusion coefficient which is a function of the position of the diffusion filter in the pulse sequence. A detailed theoretical analysis of this experiment indicates that, in addition to the measurement of simple exchange rates, the experiment is capable of measuring the effect of mediated exchange, e.g. the transfer of magnetization from bulk water to an amide site mediated by an internal bound water molecule or a labile protein side-chain proton in fast exchange with bulk water. Experimental results for rapid water/amide exchange in acyl carrier protein are shown to be quantitatively consistent with the exchange rates measured using a selective-inversion exchange experiment

  9. Data filtering and expected muon and neutrino event rates in the KM3NeT neutrino telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shanidze, Rezo [ECAP, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erwin-Rommel-Str.1, 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Collaboration: ANTARES-KM3NeT-Erlangen-Collaboration

    2011-07-01

    KM3NeT is a future Mediterranean deep sea neutrino telescope with an instrumented volume of several cubic kilometres. The neutrino and muon events in KM3NeT will be reconstructed from the signals collected from the telescope's photo detectors. However, in the deep sea the dominant source of photon signals are the decays of K40 nuclei and bioluminescence. The selection of neutrino and muon events requires the implementation of fast and efficient data filtering algorithms for the reduction of accidental background event rates. Possible data filtering and triggering schemes for the KM3NeT neutrino telescope and expected muon and neutrino event rates are discussed.

  10. The relationship between the forward– and the realized spot exchange rate in South Africa / Petrus Marthinus Stephanus van Heerden

    OpenAIRE

    Van Heerden, Petrus Marthinus Stephanus

    2010-01-01

    The inability to effectively hedge against unfavourable exchange rate movements, using the current forward exchange rate as the only guideline, is a key inhibiting factor of international trade. Market participants use the current forward exchange rate quoted in the market to make decisions regarding future exchange rate changes. However, the current forward exchange rate is not solely determined by the interaction of demand and supply, but is also a mechanistic estimation, whi...

  11. [Effects of drying and wetting cycles induced by tides on net ecosystem exchange of CO2 over a salt marsh in the Yellow River Delta, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Wen Jun; Han, Guang Xuan; Xu, Yan Ning; Zhang, Xi Tao; Wang, An Dong; Che, Chun Guang; Sun, Bao Yu; Zhang, Xiao Shuai

    2018-01-01

    As a unique hydrological characteristic, the tidal action can strongly affect carbon balance in a salt marsh despite their short duration. Using the eddy covariance technique, we measured the net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) and its environmental factors and tidal change over a salt marsh in the Yellow River Delta. It aimed to investigate the effect of tidal process and drying and wetting cycles induced by tides on NEE. The results showed that the tidal process promoted the daytime CO 2 uptake, but it didn't clearly affect the nighttime CO 2 release. Tidal inundation was a major factor influencing daytime NEE. The diurnal change of NEE showed a distinct U-shaped curve on both drought and wet stages, but not with substantial variation in its amplitude during the drought stage. The drying and wetting cycles enhanced the absorption of daytime CO 2 . Under drought stage, the mean of the maximum photosynthetic rate (A max ), apparent quantum yield (α) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) were higher than those in wet stage. In addition, the drying and wetting cycles suppressed the nighttime CO 2 release from the salt marsh but increased its temperature sensitivity.

  12. Sodium isotopic exchange rate between crystalline zirconium phosphate and molten NaNO/sub 3/

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inoue, Y; Yamada, Y [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1975-12-01

    The isotopic exchange rate of sodium ion between crystalline zirconium phosphate and molten NaNO/sub 3/ has been measured at 312/sup 0/C and 362/sup 0/C by batch method. The equilibrium was reached within 20 minutes at either temperature, and the rate was very rapid as compared with that of sodium-potassium ion exchange.

  13. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...

  14. Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions, Asymmetries and Hedging Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); Y. Yuan (Yuan); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the inclusion of the dollar/euro exchange rate together with four important and highly traded commodities - aluminum, copper, gold and oil- in symmetric and asymmetric multivariate GARCH and DCC models. The inclusion of exchange rate increases the significant direct

  15. Air-water Gas Exchange Rates on a Large Impounded River Measured Using Floating Domes (Poster)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mass balance models of dissolved gases in rivers typically serve as the basis for whole-system estimates of greenhouse gas emission rates. An important component of these models is the exchange of dissolved gases between air and water. Controls on gas exchange rates (K) have be...

  16. Comment on 'A Forecasting Equation for the Canada-US Dollar Real Exchange Rate'

    OpenAIRE

    Kollmann, Robert

    1993-01-01

    This paper is a comment on the paper 'A Forecasting Equation for the Canada-US Dollar Exchange Rate' (Robert Amano and Simon van Norden, Bank of Canada). The comment was published in: The Exchange Rate and the Economy, Proceedings of 1992 Bank of Canada Conference; Bank of Canada, 1993, Ottawa (ISBN 0-660-15195-2), pp. 266-271.

  17. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, R.A.; Norden, S. van.

    1993-12-01

    It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  18. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing: Evidence from Fixed Exchange Rate Episodes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing applied to fixed exchange rate regimes. We calculate risk-sharing indices for two episodes of fixed or very rigid exchange rates: the Eurozone before and after the introduction of the Euro, and

  19. Exchange Rate Exposures and Strategies of Industrial Companies: An Empirical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy.......This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy....

  20. 76 FR 6128 - Energy Exchange International, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-03

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. ER11-2730-000] Energy Exchange International, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for... proceeding Energy Exchange International, LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an...

  1. Trade openness, real exchange rates and job reallocation : Evidence from Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Colantone (Italo)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate movements on job reallocation at the industry level. The analysis focuses on the manufacturing sector of Belgium, using data for 82 NACE 3-digit industries, over the time span 1996-2002. I find that real exchange rate changes do

  2. A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Schotman (Peter); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a posterior odds analysis of the hypothesis of a unit root in real exchange rates. From a Bayesian viewpoint the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates is a posteriori as probable as a stationary AR(1) process for four out of eight time series investigated. The French

  3. Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: the view from the tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); Ph.A. Stork (Philip); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn the literature on the empirical unconditional distribution of foreign exchange rate returns there is indication that the type of distribution function is related to the form of exchange rate regime. The analysis has been hampered by the nonnestedness of alternative distribution

  4. THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENCY RELATIONS IN THE LIGHT OF MAJOR EXCHANGE RATE ADJUSTMENT THEORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiy TKACH

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of major exchange rate adjustment theories on the global monetary system. The reasons of the previous organization forms of monetary relations collapse at the global level are defined. The main achievements and failures of major exchange rate theories are described.

  5. Determinants of the ZAR/USD exchange rate and policy implications: A simultaneous-equation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Hsing

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants of the South African rand/US dollar (ZAR/USD exchange rate based on demand and supply analysis. Applying the EGARCH method, the paper finds that the ZAR/USD exchange rate is positively associated with the South African government bond yield, US real GDP, the US stock price and the South African inflation rate and negatively influenced by the 10-year US government bond yield, South African real GDP, the South African stock price, and the US inflation rate. The adoption of a free floating exchange rate regime has reduced the value of the rand vs. the US dollar.

  6. Exchange Rate and Trade: J-curve in European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Lupu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The EU economy is experiencing a severe recession amid the global crisis, and although in other regions began to appear mild signs of recovery, in EU countries are recorded a continuously worsening. In many European states, the economic contraction is a consequence of the decrease in net exports component of GDP. The aim of the article is to analyze the situation in which the EU chooses to devalue its currency to increase exports. We found that, the depreciation of the Euro, has no influence on exports and that in EU, it is not expressed a J-curve effects.

  7. Heterogeneous effects of oil shocks on exchange rates: evidence from a quantile regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xianfang; Zhu, Huiming; You, Wanhai; Ren, Yinghua

    2016-01-01

    The determinants of exchange rates have attracted considerable attention among researchers over the past several decades. Most studies, however, ignore the possibility that the impact of oil shocks on exchange rates could vary across the exchange rate returns distribution. We employ a quantile regression approach to address this issue. Our results indicate that the effect of oil shocks on exchange rates is heterogeneous across quantiles. A large US depreciation or appreciation tends to heighten the effects of oil shocks on exchange rate returns. Positive oil demand shocks lead to appreciation pressures in oil-exporting countries and this result is robust across lower and upper return distributions. These results offer rich and useful information for investors and decision-makers.

  8. Net sputtering rate due to hot ions in a Ne-Xe discharge gas bombarding an MgO layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, S.; Tamakoshi, T.; Ikeda, M.; Mikami, Y.; Suzuki, K.

    2011-01-01

    An analytical method is developed for determining net sputtering rate for an MgO layer under hot ions with low energy ( h i , above a threshold energy of sputtering, E th,i , multiplied by a yield coefficient. The threshold energy of sputtering is determined from dissociation energy required to remove an atom from MgO surface multiplied by an energy-transfer coefficient. The re-deposition rate of the sputtered atoms is calculated by a diffusion simulation using a hybridized probabilistic and analytical method. These calculation methods are combined to analyze the net sputtering rate. Maximum net sputtering rate due to the hot neon ions increases above the partial pressure of 4% xenon as E h Ne becomes higher and decreases near the partial pressure of 20% xenon as ion flux of neon decreases. The dependence due to the hot neon ions on partial pressure and applied voltage agrees well with experimental results, but the dependence due to the hot xenon ions deviates considerably. This result shows that the net sputtering rate is dominated by the hot neon ions. Maximum E h Ne (E h Ne,max = 5.3 - 10.3 eV) is lower than E th,Ne (19.5 eV) for the MgO layer; therefore, weak sputtering due to the hot neon ions takes place. One hot neon ion sputters each magnesium and each oxygen atom on the surface and distorts around a vacancy. The ratio of the maximum net sputtering rate is approximately determined by number of the ions at E h i,max multiplied by an exponential factor of -E th,i /E h i,max .

  9. East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-16

    At the other extreme, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea have usually allowed their currencies to float freely in foreign exchange ( forex ...China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam allow their currency to adjust in value in forex markets so long as the...There were also reports that Korea sold more dollars for won in early April 2008.7 At the time, some forex analysts claimed that the new South Korean

  10. Low inflation, a high net savings surplus and institutional restrictions keep the Japanese long-term interest rate low

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Pieter W.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explains that the interest rate on long-term Japanese government bonds is low in comparison with other industrialised countries for four main reasons: lower inflation, net savings surplus, institutional restrictions and home bias. Monetary policy and institutionalised purchases of

  11. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  12. Net Metering and Market Feedback Loops: Exploring the Impact of Retail Rate Design on Distributed PV Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darghouth, Naïm R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-01-13

    The substantial increase in deployment of customer-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States has been driven by a combination of steeply declining costs, financing innovations, and supportive policies. Among those supportive policies is net metering, which in most states effectively allows customers to receive compensation for distributed PV generation at the full retail electricity price. The current design of retail electricity rates and the presence of net metering have elicited concerns that the possible under-recovery of fixed utility costs from PV system owners may lead to a feedback loop of increasing retail prices that accelerate PV adoption and further rate increases. However, a separate and opposing feedback loop could offset this effect: increased PV deployment may lead to a shift in the timing of peak-period electricity prices that could reduce the bill savings received under net metering where time-varying retail electricity rates are used, thereby dampening further PV adoption. In this paper, we examine the impacts of these two competing feedback dynamics on U.S. distributed PV deployment through 2050 for both residential and commercial customers, across states. Our results indicate that, at the aggregate national level, the two feedback effects nearly offset one another and therefore produce a modest net effect, although their magnitude and direction vary by customer segment and by state. We also model aggregate PV deployment trends under various rate designs and net-metering rules, accounting for feedback dynamics. Our results demonstrate that future adoption of distributed PV is highly sensitive to retail rate structures. Whereas flat, time-invariant rates with net metering lead to higher aggregate national deployment levels than the current mix of rate structures (+5% in 2050), rate structures with higher monthly fixed customer charges or PV compensation at levels lower than the full retail rate can dramatically erode aggregate customer

  13. The exchange rate managements in crisis-experienced emerging market economies after the 1990s

    OpenAIRE

    Taguchi, Hiroyuki

    2005-01-01

    This article examined the exchange rate managements in the crisis-experienced emerging market economies after the 1990s. First, we found that the exchange rate flexibility has increased from the pre-crisis period towards the post-crisis period under the “soft peg” regime. Second, we identified a structural change in the factors for determining a reference rate in exchange rate management from the pre-crisis period to the post-crisis period. Third, we found that East Asian countries, in their ...

  14. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  15. Inventories of Asian textile producers, US cotton exports, and the exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durmaz Nazif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper develops a model with US cotton exports depending on the stock-to-use ratio, trade weighted exchange rates, and the relative cotton prices. The role of inventories in cotton consumption is examined in five textile producing cotton importers, China, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. Cotton inventory dynamics is diverse among Asian textile producers. Relative prices have negative effect in all markets as expected. Exchange rate elasticities show that effects should be examined for each separate market. Changes in rates of depreciation also have stronger effects than exchange rate. Results reveal that these countries are not all that homogenous.

  16. Oxygen isotope exchange rate between dissolved sulfate and water at hydrothermal temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiba, H.; Sakai, H.

    1985-01-01

    Oxygen isotope exchange rate between dissolved sulfate and water was experimentally determined at 100, 200 and 300 deg C. The isotope exchange rate is strongly dependent on temperature and pH of the solution. Combining the temperature and pH dependence of the reaction rate, the exchange reaction was estimated to be first-order with respect to sulfate. The logarithm of apparent rate constant of exchange reaction at a given temperature is a function of the pH calculated at the experimental temperatures. From the pH dependence of the apparent rate constant, it was deduced that the isotope exchange reaction between dissolved sulfate and water proceeds through collision between H 2 SO 4 0 and H 2 O at low pH, and between HSO 4 - and H 2 O at intermediate pH. The isotope exchange rate obtained indicates that oxygen isotope geothermometry utilizing the studied isotope exchange is suitable for temperature estimation of geothermal reservoirs. The extrapolated half-life of this reaction to oceanic temperature is about 10 9 years, implying that exchange between oceanic sulfate and water cannot control the oxygen isotope ratio of oceanic sulfates. (author)

  17. PURCHASING POWER PARITY INFLUENCE ON REAL EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Purchasing Power Parity (PPP represents a fundamental concept in exchange rate modeling. The main idea is given by equality between prices in two different countries when expressing in the same currency.This paper aims to analyze the behavior of real exchange rate between EURO and Romanian new leu (RON under PPP paradigm. We use the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron stationarity tests in order to check real exchange deviations from PPP. Also, we investigate the existence of a connection between long-term between nominal exchange rate and industrial producer price indices from Romania and euro area. The main conclusions of this research highlight that PPP doesn’t holds; real exchange rate stationarity tests doest not confirm the stationarity, thus between the aforementioned three variables it doesn’t exists any equilibrium relation.

  18. The performance of exchange rate regimes in three SADC countries: An overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard N. Iyke

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the real exchange rate and economic growth dynamics in three low-income Southern African countries, namely: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC, Malawi and Mozambique. Specifically, the paper investigates the nature of exchange rate regimes and the impact that they have on economic growth, as well as the movement of real exchange rates and real GDP from 1970—2010 in these countries. The paper identifies the following trends: Fixed exchange regimes were pursued from the 1960s until the late 1980s and early 1990s in these countries, which were growth-repressing; the countries pursued floating and managed-floating regimes from the 1990s to date, resulting in moderate-to-rapid economic growth. We conclude that liberalised exchange rates, which lead to undervalued currencies in these Southern African countries, were growth-enhancing.

  19. A comparative study of United States and China exchange rate behavior: A co integration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shafi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates always affect the prices of the imports and export of products and services in which countries are trading with other parts of the world. Therefore, exchange rate calculation is one of the essential issues for making appropriate policies. This research investigates the determinants of trade, i.e. import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation, which bring changes in exchange rate and their influence eventually on balance of payments. Data of defined variables was collected on yearly basis for China and USA for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there existed a long run relationship in both countries. USA and China had significant and correct signs on the short run dynamic and some of the factors did not. Exchange rate did not granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment did not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinants of balance of trade could affect the exchange rates, also, these rates had considerable effect (positive or negative on balance of payments. In this twofold study, we found relationship of exchange rate with selected determinants of trade, and also examined their bilateral effect, and then made contrast of both countries.

  20. The Effects of Workers’ Remittances on Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Dynamics -New Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Khurshid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impact of remittances on the exchange rate and exports in Pakistan, using the system GMM aproach on annual data series. We carry out a full sample Granger causality test along with the sub-sample rolling window approach using monthly data series to find the causal relationship between remittances (REM and the exchange rate (EXR. The System GMM results reveal that remittances depreciate the exchange rate and have a positive influence on export competitiveness. In addition to this, the remittance inflow appreciates the exchange rate only if it is used for savings and negatively affects competitiveness if it is channeled towards consumption. The change in exchange rate regime from multiple to flexible depreciated the exchange rate while, the global financial crises uplifted the currency rate and negatively affect the exports. The results show the bidirectional causal relationship between remittances and the exchange rate. The outcomes further reveal that the parameters in the VAR model are unstable, which is a clear indication of the presence of structural changes. The rolling window estimation approach with time-varying characteristics finds bi-directional causality between REM and the EXR in the different sub-samples. The results of this study fall in line with the portfolio model proposed by Mussa (1984 which states that the flow of remittances causes appreciation. The sub-sample causality is related to significant economic events, which means the results are not a statistical artifact.