WorldWideScience

Sample records for near-surface hydrological model

  1. Surface and near-surface hydrological model of Olkiluoto island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2008-04-01

    The aim of the study was to develop a 3D-model that calculates the overall water balance components of Olkiluoto Island in the present-day condition utilizing the existing extensive data sets available. The model links the unsaturated and saturated soil water in the overburden and groundwater in bedrock to a continuous pressure system. The parameterization of land use and vegetation was done in such a way that the model can later on be used for description of the past evolution of the overburden hydrology at the site and overburden's hydrological evolution in the future. Measured groundwater level in overburden tubes, pressure heads in shallow bedrock holes, snow depth, soil temperature, frost depth and discharge measurements were used in assessing the performance of the models in the calibration period (01.05.2001- 31.12.2005). Computed groundwater level variation can be characterized by variables ΔH MEAS and ΔH COMP , which are the difference between maximum and minimum measured and computed groundwater level value during the calibration period. Average ΔH MEAS for all tubes located in fine-textured till soil was 1.99 m and the corresponding computed value ΔH COMP was 1.83 m. Average ΔH MEAS for all tubes located in sandy till soil was 2.12 m and the corresponding computed value ΔH COMP was 1.93 m. The computed results indicate that in future studies it is necessary to divide the two most important soil types into several subclasses. In the present study the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was carried out through a parameter uncertainty framework known as GLUE. According to the uncertainty analysis the average yearly runoff was around 175 mm a -1 and 50 % confidence limits were 155 and 195 mm a -1 . Measured average yearly runoff during the calibration period was 190 mm a -1 . Average yearly evapotranspiration estimate was 310 mm a -1 and the 50 % confidence limits were 290 and 330 mm a -1 . Average value for recharge through the bedrock system was 1

  2. Olkiluoto surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2011-08-01

    The modeling approaches carried out with the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD) include palaeohydrological evolution of the Olkiluoto Island, examination of the boundary condition at the geosphere-biosphere interface zone, simulations related to infiltration experiment, prediction of the influence of ONKALO on hydraulic head in shallow and deep bedrock and optimisation of the shallow monitoring network. A so called short-term prediction system was developed for continuous updating of the estimated drawdowns caused by ONKALO. The palaeohydrological simulations were computed for a period starting from the time when the highest hills on Olkiluoto Island rose above sea level around 2 500 years ago. The input data needed in the model were produced by the UNTAMO-toolbox. The groundwater flow evolution is primarily driven by the postglacial land uplift and the uncertainty in the land uplift model is the biggest single factor that influences the accuracy of the results. The consistency of the boundary condition at the geosphere-biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) was studied during 2010. The comparison carried out during 2010 showed that pressure head profiles computed with the SHYD model and deep groundwater flow model FEFTRA are in good agreement with each other in the uppermost 100 m of the bedrock. This implies that flux profiles computed with the two approaches are close to each other and hydraulic heads computed at level z=0 m with the SHYD can be used as head boundary condition in the deep groundwater flow model FEFTRA. The surface hydrological model was used to analyse the results of the infiltration experiment. Increase in bedrock recharge inside WCA explains around 60-63 % from the amount of water pumped from OL-KR14 and 37-40 % of the water pumped from OL-KR14 flows towards pumping section via the hydrogeological zones. Pumping from OL-KR14 has only a minor effect on heads and fluxes in zones HZ19A and HZ19C compared to responses caused by leakages into

  3. Assimilation of ASCAT near-surface soil moisture into the French SIM hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, C.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Wagner, W.

    2011-06-01

    The impact of assimilating near-surface soil moisture into the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) hydrological model over France is examined. Specifically, the root-zone soil moisture in the ISBA land surface model is constrained over three and a half years, by assimilating the ASCAT-derived surface degree of saturation product, using a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter. In this experiment ISBA is forced with the near-real time SAFRAN analysis, which analyses the variables required to force ISBA from relevant observations available before the real time data cut-off. The assimilation results are tested against ISBA forecasts generated with a higher quality delayed cut-off SAFRAN analysis. Ideally, assimilating the ASCAT data will constrain the ISBA surface state to correct for errors in the near-real time SAFRAN forcing, the most significant of which was a substantial dry bias caused by a dry precipitation bias. The assimilation successfully reduced the mean root-zone soil moisture bias, relative to the delayed cut-off forecasts, by close to 50 % of the open-loop value. The improved soil moisture in the model then led to significant improvements in the forecast hydrological cycle, reducing the drainage, runoff, and evapotranspiration biases (by 17 %, 11 %, and 70 %, respectively). When coupled to the MODCOU hydrogeological model, the ASCAT assimilation also led to improved streamflow forecasts, increasing the mean discharge ratio, relative to the delayed cut off forecasts, from 0.68 to 0.76. These results demonstrate that assimilating near-surface soil moisture observations can effectively constrain the SIM model hydrology, while also confirming the accuracy of the ASCAT surface degree of saturation product. This latter point highlights how assimilation experiments can contribute towards the difficult issue of validating remotely sensed land surface observations over large spatial scales.

  4. Assimilation of ASCAT near-surface soil moisture into the SIM hydrological model over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, C.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Wagner, W.

    2011-12-01

    This study examines whether the assimilation of remotely sensed near-surface soil moisture observations might benefit an operational hydrological model, specifically Météo-France's SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) model. Soil moisture data derived from ASCAT backscatter observations are assimilated into SIM using a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter (SEKF) over 3.5 years. The benefit of the assimilation is tested by comparison to a delayed cut-off version of SIM, in which the land surface is forced with more accurate atmospheric analyses, due to the availability of additional atmospheric observations after the near-real time data cut-off. However, comparing the near-real time and delayed cut-off SIM models revealed that the main difference between them is a dry bias in the near-real time precipitation forcing, which resulted in a dry bias in the root-zone soil moisture and associated surface moisture flux forecasts. While assimilating the ASCAT data did reduce the root-zone soil moisture dry bias (by nearly 50%), this was more likely due to a bias within the SEKF, than due to the assimilation having accurately responded to the precipitation errors. Several improvements to the assimilation are identified to address this, and a bias-aware strategy is suggested for explicitly correcting the model bias. However, in this experiment the moisture added by the SEKF was quickly lost from the model surface due to the enhanced surface fluxes (particularly drainage) induced by the wetter soil moisture states. Consequently, by the end of each winter, during which frozen conditions prevent the ASCAT data from being assimilated, the model land surface had returned to its original (dry-biased) climate. This highlights that it would be more effective to address the precipitation bias directly, than to correct it by constraining the model soil moisture through data assimilation.

  5. Increasing the reliability of the Olkiluoto surface and near-surface hydrological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2009-05-01

    The aim of the study was to improve the reliability of the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model that calculates the overall water balance components of Olkiluoto Island. ONKALO and Korvensuo reservoir were added as explicit structures to the model. The model links the unsaturated and saturated soil water in the overburden and groundwater in bedrock to a continuous pressure system. With the model it is possible to evaluate the influence of water leaking to ONKALO on groundwater level in overburden soils and pressure head in shallow bedrock drillholes. Anisotropy was added to the surface hydrological model and several model runs were carried out using anisotropy factors 1, 5 and 10. Anisotropy factor of 10 is used in the 2008 version of the deep hydrogeological model and the same anisotropy will be used in future calculations of the surface hydrological model to ensure consistency of the parameter values in the two models. The correspondence between measured and computed groundwater levels has been improved due to new soil type delineation and the calibration of the soil water retention curve parameters. Computed groundwater level variation can be characterized by a measure ΔH COMP , which is difference between maximum and minimum value during the calibration period. Average ΔH COMP in groundwater tubes was 1.98 m and the corresponding measured value ΔH MEAS was 2.08 m, i.e. the difference between measured and computed value was around 0.1 m (0.16 m in the 2007 version). Temporal variation (difference between maximum and minimum pressure head) was simulated well also in most of the shallow bedrock drillholes. ONKALO was added to the 2008 version of the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model. Influence of ONKALO is taken into account by giving the total discharge as input data from existing measurements or from calculations of the deep hydrogeological model of the Olkiluoto Island. The computed results show that ONKALO has a temporal effect on groundwater level in

  6. Description of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Per-Olof

    2008-12-01

    This report describes the modelling of the surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that was performed for the final site descriptive model of Forsmark produced in the site investigation stage, SDM-Site Forsmark. The comprehensive investigation and monitoring programme forms a strong basis for the developed conceptual and descriptive model of the hydrological and near-surface hydrological system of the site investigation area. However, there are some remaining uncertainties regarding the interaction of deep and near-surface groundwater and surface water of importance for the understanding of the system: The groundwaters in till below Lake Eckarfjaerden, Lake Gaellbotraesket, Lake Fiskarfjaerden and Lake Bolundsfjaerden have high salinities. The hydrological and hydrochemical interpretations indicate that these waters are relict waters of mainly marine origin. From the perspective of the overall water balance, the water below the central parts of the lakes can be considered as stagnant. However, according to the hydrochemical interpretation, these waters also contain weak signatures of deep saline water. Rough chloride budget calculations for the Gaellbotraesket depression also raise the question of a possible upward flow of deep groundwater. No absolute conclusion can be drawn from the existing data analyses regarding the key question of whether there is a small ongoing upward flow of deep saline water. However, Lake Bolundsfjaerden is an exception where the clear downward flow gradient from the till to the bedrock excludes the possibility of an active deep saline source. The available data indicate that there are no discharge areas for flow systems involving deep bedrock groundwater in the northern part of the tectonic lens, where the repository is planned to be located (the so-called 'target area'). However, it can not be excluded that such discharge areas exist. Data indicate that the prevailing downward vertical flow gradients from the QD to the bedrock

  7. Description of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof (Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Taeby (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    This report describes the modelling of the surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that was performed for the final site descriptive model of Forsmark produced in the site investigation stage, SDM-Site Forsmark. The comprehensive investigation and monitoring programme forms a strong basis for the developed conceptual and descriptive model of the hydrological and near-surface hydrological system of the site investigation area. However, there are some remaining uncertainties regarding the interaction of deep and near-surface groundwater and surface water of importance for the understanding of the system: The groundwaters in till below Lake Eckarfjaerden, Lake Gaellbotraesket, Lake Fiskarfjaerden and Lake Bolundsfjaerden have high salinities. The hydrological and hydrochemical interpretations indicate that these waters are relict waters of mainly marine origin. From the perspective of the overall water balance, the water below the central parts of the lakes can be considered as stagnant. However, according to the hydrochemical interpretation, these waters also contain weak signatures of deep saline water. Rough chloride budget calculations for the Gaellbotraesket depression also raise the question of a possible upward flow of deep groundwater. No absolute conclusion can be drawn from the existing data analyses regarding the key question of whether there is a small ongoing upward flow of deep saline water. However, Lake Bolundsfjaerden is an exception where the clear downward flow gradient from the till to the bedrock excludes the possibility of an active deep saline source. The available data indicate that there are no discharge areas for flow systems involving deep bedrock groundwater in the northern part of the tectonic lens, where the repository is planned to be located (the so-called 'target area'). However, it can not be excluded that such discharge areas exist. Data indicate that the prevailing downward vertical flow gradients from the QD to

  8. Numerical modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosson, Emma (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran; Sassner, Mona (DHI Sverige AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-09-15

    SKB is currently performing site investigations at two potential sites for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report presents results of water flow and solute transport modelling of the Forsmark site. The modelling reported in this document focused on the near-surface groundwater, i.e. groundwater in Quaternary deposits and shallow rock, and surface water systems, and was performed using the MIKE SHE tool. The most recent site data used in the modelling were delivered in the Forsmark 2.3 dataset, which had its 'data freeze' on March 31, 2007. The present modelling is performed in support of the final version of the Forsmark site description that is produced during the site investigation phase. In this work, the hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE has been used to describe near-surface groundwater flow and the contact between groundwater and surface water at the Forsmark site. The surface water system at Forsmark is described with the one-dimensional 'channel flow' modelling tool MIKE 11, which is fully and dynamically integrated with MIKE SHE. The MIKE SHE model was updated with data from the F2.3 data freeze. The main updates concerned the geological description of the saturated zone and the time series data on water levels and surface water discharges. The time series data used as input data and for calibration and validation was extended until the Forsmark 2.3 data freeze (March 31, 2007). The present work can be subdivided into the following four parts: 1. Update of the numerical flow model. 2. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of the model parameters. 3. Validation of the calibrated model, followed by evaluation and identification of discrepancies between measurements and model results. 4. Additional sensitivity analysis and calibration in order to resolve the problems identified in point three above. The main actions taken during the calibration can be summarised as follows: 1. The potential evapotranspiration was

  9. Meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring data and near-surface hydrogeological properties data from Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Kent; Oehman, Johan; Holgersson, Bjoern; Roennback, Kristoffer; Marelius, Fredrick

    2008-12-01

    This report presents and analyses meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological time-series data and near-surface hydrogeological properties data from the Laxemar-Simpevarp area, available in SKB's Sicada database at time of the Laxemar 2.3 data freeze (Aug. 31, 2007). The meteorological data set includes data from two local stations, located on the island of Aespoe and at Plittorp, located further inland. In addition, the data evaluation uses a longer-term data set from 7 surrounding stations, operated by SMHI. As part of this study, a time series is constructed of the water content of snow. According to the data evaluation, the site-average annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration can be estimated to be on the order of 600 and 535 mm, respectively. In particular, precipitation demonstrates a near-coastal gradient, with less precipitation at the coast compared to areas further inland. The surface-water level data set includes data from 4 lake-level gauging stations and 3 sea-level gauging stations. All lakes are located above sea level, including the near-coastal Lake Soeraa. Hence, no intrusion of sea water to lakes takes place. There is a strong co-variation among the monitored lake-water levels, typically with maxima during spring and minima during late summer and early autumn. Concerning the sea as a hydraulic boundary, the maximum and minimum sea levels (daily averages) during the site-investigation period were -0.52 and 0.71 metres above sea level, respectively, whereas the average sea level was 0.03 metres above sea level (RHB 70). The data set on stream discharge, surface-water temperature and electrical conductivity includes data from 9 discharge-gauging stations in 7 streams. Based on the discharge data, the site-average specific discharge for the years 2005-2007 can be estimated to 165 mm/y, which is within the interval of the estimated long-term average. Overall, discharge-data errors are likely to be small. The hydrogeological time

  10. Meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring data and near-surface hydrogeological properties data from Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Kent (EmpTec, Taeby (Sweden)); Oehman, Johan (Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Holgersson, Bjoern (SWECO VIAK, Stockholm (Sweden)); Roennback, Kristoffer (Aqualog AB, Goeteborg (Sweden)); Marelius, Fredrick (WSP Sverige, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    This report presents and analyses meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological time-series data and near-surface hydrogeological properties data from the Laxemar-Simpevarp area, available in SKB's Sicada database at time of the Laxemar 2.3 data freeze (Aug. 31, 2007). The meteorological data set includes data from two local stations, located on the island of Aespoe and at Plittorp, located further inland. In addition, the data evaluation uses a longer-term data set from 7 surrounding stations, operated by SMHI. As part of this study, a time series is constructed of the water content of snow. According to the data evaluation, the site-average annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration can be estimated to be on the order of 600 and 535 mm, respectively. In particular, precipitation demonstrates a near-coastal gradient, with less precipitation at the coast compared to areas further inland. The surface-water level data set includes data from 4 lake-level gauging stations and 3 sea-level gauging stations. All lakes are located above sea level, including the near-coastal Lake Soeraa. Hence, no intrusion of sea water to lakes takes place. There is a strong co-variation among the monitored lake-water levels, typically with maxima during spring and minima during late summer and early autumn. Concerning the sea as a hydraulic boundary, the maximum and minimum sea levels (daily averages) during the site-investigation period were -0.52 and 0.71 metres above sea level, respectively, whereas the average sea level was 0.03 metres above sea level (RHB 70). The data set on stream discharge, surface-water temperature and electrical conductivity includes data from 9 discharge-gauging stations in 7 streams. Based on the discharge data, the site-average specific discharge for the years 2005-2007 can be estimated to 165 mm/y, which is within the interval of the estimated long-term average. Overall, discharge-data errors are likely to be small. The hydrogeological

  11. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in the biosphere assessment BSA-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2013-05-01

    The Finnish nuclear waste disposal company, Posiva Oy, is planning an underground repository for spent nuclear fuel to be constructed on the island of Olkiluoto on the south-west coast of Finland. This study is part of the biosphere assessment (BSA-2012) within the safety case for the repository. The surface hydrological modelling described in this report is aimed at providing link between radionuclide transport in the geosphere and in the biosphere systems. The SVAT-model and Olkiluoto site scale surface hydrological model were calibrated and validated in the present day conditions using the input data provided by the Olkiluoto Monitoring Programme (OMO). During the next 10 000 years the terrain and ecosystem development is to a large extent driven by the postglacial crustal uplift. UNTAMO is a GIS toolbox developed for simulating land-uplift driven or other changes in the biosphere. All the spatial and temporal input data (excluding meteorological data) needed in the surface hydrological modelling were provided by the UNTAMO toolbox. The specific outputs given by UNTAMO toolbox are time-dependent evolution of the biosphere objects. They are continuous and sufficiently homogeneous sub-areas of the modelled area that could potentially receive radionuclides released from the repository. Possible ecosystem types for biosphere objects are coast, lake, river, forest, cropland, pasture and wetland. The primary goal of this study was to compute vertical and horizontal water fluxes in the biosphere objects. These data will be used in the biosphere radionuclide transport calculations. The method adopted here is based on calculating average vertical and horizontal fluxes for biosphere objects from the results of the full 3D-model. It was not necessary to develop any simplified hydrological model for the biosphere objects. This report includes modelling results from for the Reference Case (present day climate) and Terr M axAgri Case (maximum extent of agricultural areas and

  12. Effects on surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology of an open repository in Laxemar Results of modelling with MIKE SHE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maartensson, Erik; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran; Bosson, Emma

    2009-10-01

    This report presents the methodology and the results from the modelling of an open repository for spent nuclear fuel in Laxemar. Specifically, the present work analyses the hydrological effects of the planned repository during the construction and operational phases when it is open, i.e. air-filled, and hence may cause a disturbance of the hydrological conditions in the surroundings. The numerical modelling is based on the SDM-Site Laxemar MIKE SHE model. The modelling was divided into three steps. The first step was to update the SDM-Site Laxemar model with a new hydrogeological bedrock model. The other main updates were an increase of the depth of the MIKE SHE model domain, enhanced vertical computational resolution and that the drainage of the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory was included in the model. The resulting model was used to simulate undisturbed natural conditions. The next step was to describe the open repository conditions, using Laxemar layout D2, by implementing the access tunnel, the repository tunnels and shafts in the model, and to simulate the consequences for the surface hydrology caused by an open repository under different conditions. The final step was a sensitivity analysis that aimed to investigate the sensitivity of the modelled effects of the open repository to the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock and the Quaternary deposits, the sediments under the sea, and changes in boundary conditions. The model covers an area of 34 km 2 . The groundwater divides were assumed to coincide with the surface water divides; thus, a no-flow boundary condition was used at the horizontal boundaries, except in the Quaternary deposit layers towards the sea where a time-varying boundary condition describing the sea-level in the area was used. In the bedrock layers, however, a no-flow boundary condition was applied. Also the bottom boundary was described as a no-flow boundary. The transient top boundary condition was based on meteorological data gathered at

  13. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Simpevarp 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Kent; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten

    2005-04-01

    This report presents and evaluates the site investigations and primary data on meteorology, surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that are available in the Simpevarp 1.2 'data freeze'. The main objective is to update the previous Simpevarp 1.1 description of the meteorological, surface hydrological and near-surface hydrogeological conditions in the Simpevarp area. Based on the Simpevarp 1.2 dataset, an updated conceptual and descriptive model of the surface and near-surface water flow conditions in the Simpevarp area is presented. In cases where site investigation data are not yet available, regional and/or generic data are used as input to the modelling. GIS- and process-based tools, used for initial quantitative flow modelling, are also presented. The objectives of this initial quantitative modelling are to illustrate, quantify and support the site descriptive model, and also to produce relevant input data to the ecological systems modelling within the SKB SurfaceNet framework.For the Simpevarp 1.2 model, the relevant site investigations include the establishment of one local meteorological station and surface-hydrological stations for discharge measurements, delineation and description of catchment areas, manual discharge measurements in water courses, slug tests in groundwater monitoring wells, and manual groundwater level measurements. In addition, other investigations have also contributed to the modelling, providing data on geometry (including topography), data from surface-based geological investigations and boreholes in Quaternary deposits, and data on the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock. The conceptual and descriptive modelling includes an identification and basic description of type areas, domains and interfaces between domains within the model area. The surface and near-surface flow system is described, including the assignment of hydrogeological properties to HSDs (Hydraulic Soil Domains) of Quaternary deposits based on a

  14. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Simpevarp 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-04-01

    This report presents and evaluates the site investigations and primary data on meteorology, surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that are available in the Simpevarp 1.2 'data freeze'. The main objective is to update the previous Simpevarp 1.1 description of the meteorological, surface hydrological and near-surface hydrogeological conditions in the Simpevarp area. Based on the Simpevarp 1.2 dataset, an updated conceptual and descriptive model of the surface and near-surface water flow conditions in the Simpevarp area is presented. In cases where site investigation data are not yet available, regional and/or generic data are used as input to the modelling. GIS- and process-based tools, used for initial quantitative flow modelling, are also presented. The objectives of this initial quantitative modelling are to illustrate, quantify and support the site descriptive model, and also to produce relevant input data to the ecological systems modelling within the SKB SurfaceNet framework.For the Simpevarp 1.2 model, the relevant site investigations include the establishment of one local meteorological station and surface-hydrological stations for discharge measurements, delineation and description of catchment areas, manual discharge measurements in water courses, slug tests in groundwater monitoring wells, and manual groundwater level measurements. In addition, other investigations have also contributed to the modelling, providing data on geometry (including topography), data from surface-based geological investigations and boreholes in Quaternary deposits, and data on the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock. The conceptual and descriptive modelling includes an identification and basic description of type areas, domains and interfaces between domains within the model area. The surface and near-surface flow system is described, including the assignment of hydrogeological properties to HSDs (Hydraulic Soil Domains) of Quaternary deposits based on a

  15. Informing groundwater models with near-surface geophysical data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herckenrath, Daan

    Over the past decade geophysical methods have gained an increased popularity due to their ability to map hydrologic properties. Such data sets can provide valuable information to improve hydrologic models. Instead of using the measured geophysical and hydrologic data simultaneously in one inversion...... approach, many of the previous studies apply a Sequential Hydrogeophysical Inversion (SHI) in which inverted geophysical models provide information for hydrologic models. In order to fully exploit the information contained in geophysical datasets for hydrological purposes, a coupled hydrogeophysical...... inversion was introduced (CHI), in which a hydrologic model is part of the geophysical inversion. Current CHI-research has been focussing on the translation of simulated state variables of hydrologic models to geophysical model parameters. We refer to this methodology as CHI-S (State). In this thesis a new...

  16. Groundwater flow modeling for near-field of a hypothetical near-surface disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, H. Y.; Park, J. W.; Jang, G. M.; Kim, C. R.

    2000-01-01

    For a hypothetical near-surface radioactive disposal facility, the behavior of groundwater flow around the near-field of disposal vault located at the unsaturated zone were analyzed. Three alternative conceptual models proposed as the hydraulic barrier layer design were simulated to assess the hydrologic performance of engineered barriers for the facility. In order to evaluate the seepage possibility of the infiltrated water passed through the final disposal cover after the facility closure, the flow path around and water flux through each disposal vault were compared. The hydrologic parameters variation that accounts for the long-term aging and degradation of the cover and engineered materials was considered in the simulations. The results showed that it is necessary to construct the hydraulic barrier at the upper and sides of the vault, and that, for this case, achieving design hydraulic properties of bentonite/sand mixture barrier in the as-built condition is crucial to limit the seepage into the waste

  17. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Per-Olof; Werner, Kent; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten; Juston, John

    2005-06-01

    The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 ''data freeze'' (July 31, 2004). The area covered in the conceptual and descriptive modelling is characterised by a low relief and a small-scale topography. Almost the whole area is located below 20 m a s l (metres above sea level). The corrected mean annual precipitation is 600-650 mm and the mean annual evapotranspiration can be estimated to a little more than 400 mm, leaving approximately 200 mm x year-1 for runoff. Till is the dominating Quaternary deposit covering approximately 75% of the area. In most of the area, the till is sandy. Bedrock outcrops are frequent but cover only approximately 5% of the area. Direct groundwater recharge from precipitation is the dominant source of groundwater recharge. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The sediment stratigraphy of lakes and wetlands is crucial for their function as discharge areas for groundwater. Comparisons between measured lake water levels and groundwater levels below and around lakes indicate that the lakes in some cases may act as sources of groundwater recharge. Specifically, observations from Lake Bolundsfjaerden and Lake Eckarfjaerden show that such conditions were at hand during the dry summer of 2003. However, whether the observed water level relations correspond to significant water fluxes depends also on the hydrogeological properties of the lake sediments and the underlying Quaternary deposits. ''Old'' water with high

  18. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof [Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Juston, John [DBE Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-06-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is conducting site investigations at two different locations, the Forsmark and Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The results from the investigations at the sites are used as a basic input to the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDM). The SDM shall summarise the current state of knowledge of the site, and provide parameters and models to be used in further analyses within Safety Assessment, Repository Design and Environmental Impact Assessment. The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 'data freeze' (July 31, 2004). The groundwater is very shallow, with groundwater levels within one meter below ground as an annual mean for almost all groundwater monitoring wells. Also, the annual groundwater level amplitude is less than 1.5 m for most wells. The shallow groundwater levels mean that there is a strong interaction between evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater. In the modelling, surface water and near-surface groundwater divides are assumed to coincide. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The observed differences in levels are not fully consistent with the good hydraulic contact between overburden and bedrock indicated by the hydraulic tests in the Quaternary deposits. However, the relatively lower groundwater levels in the bedrock may be caused by the horizontal to sub-horizontal highly

  19. Near-Surface Geophysical Mapping of the Hydrological Response to an Intense Rainfall Event at the Field Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, G.; Vanderlinden, K.; Giraldez, J. V.; Espejo, A. J.; Muriel, J. L.

    2009-12-01

    Soil moisture plays an important role in a wide variety of biogeochemical fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system and governs the (eco)hydrological response of a catchment to an external forcing such as rainfall. Near-surface electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors that measure the soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) provide a fast and non-invasive means for characterizing this response at the field or catchment scale through high-resolution time-lapse mapping. Here we show how ECa maps, obtained before and after an intense rainfall event of 125 mm h-1, elucidate differences in soil moisture patterns and hydrologic response of an experimental field as a consequence of differed soil management. The dryland field (Vertisol) was located in SW Spain and cropped with a typical wheat-sunflower-legume rotation. Both, near-surface and subsurface ECa (ECas and ECad, respectively), were measured using the EM38-DD EMI sensor in a mobile configuration. Raw ECa measurements and Mean Relative Differences (MRD) provided information on soil moisture patterns while time-lapse maps were used to evaluate the hydrologic response of the field. ECa maps of the field, measured before and after the rainfall event showed similar patterns. The field depressions where most of water and sediments accumulated had the highest ECa and MRD values. The SE-oriented soil, which was deeper and more exposed to sun and wind, showed the lowest ECa and MRD. The largest differences raised in the central part of the field where a high ECa and MRD area appeared after the rainfall event as a consequence of the smaller soil depth and a possible subsurface flux concentration. Time-lapse maps of both ECa and MRD were also similar. The direct drill plots showed higher increments of ECa and MRD as a result of the smaller runoff production. Time-lapse ECa increments showed a bimodal distribution differentiating clearly the direct drill from the conventional and minimum tillage plots. However this kind

  20. Regime transitions in near-surface temperature inversions : a conceptual model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Wiel, B.J.H.; Vignon, E.; Baas, P.; Bosveld, F.C.; de Roode, S.R.; Moene, A.F.; Genthon, C.; van der Linden, Steven J.A.; van Hooft, J. Antoon; van Hooijdonk, I.G.S.

    2017-01-01

    A conceptual model is used in combination with observational analysis to understand regime transitions of near-surface temperature inversions at night as well as in Arctic conditions. The model combines a surface energy budget with a bulk parameterization for turbulent heat transport. Energy fluxes

  1. Near-surface hydrogeological model of Laxemar. Open repository - Laxemar 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosson, Emma

    2006-07-15

    This report presents the methodology and the results from the modelling of an open final repository for spent nuclear fuel in Laxemar. Thus, the present work analyses the hydrological effects of the planned repository during the construction and operational phases when it is open, i.e. air-filled, and hence may cause a disturbance of the hydrological conditions in the surroundings. The numerical modelling is based on the conceptual and descriptive model presented in the version 1.2 Site Descriptive Model (SDM) for Laxemar. The modelling was divided into three steps. The first step was to update the L1.2 version model for hydrology and near surface hydrogeology, the main updates were related to the hydraulic properties of the bedrock and the size of the model area. The next step was to describe the conditions for the introductory construction by implementing the access tunnel and shafts to the model. The third step aimed at describing the consequences on the surface hydrology caused by an open repository. A sensitivity analysis that aimed to investigate the sensitivity of the model to the properties of the upper bedrock and the properties in the interface between the Quaternary deposits and the bedrock was performed as a part of steps two and three. The model covers an area of 19 km{sup 2}. In the Quaternary deposits, the surface water divides are assumed to coincide with the groundwater divides, thus a no-flow boundary condition is used at the horizontal boundaries. The transient top boundary condition uses meteorological data gathered at a local SKB station at Aespoe during 2004. The bottom boundary condition and the horizontal boundary condition in the bedrock is a steady state head boundary condition taken from the open repository modelling of the bedrock performed as a parallel activity with the modelling tool DarcyTools. The vertical extent of the model is from the ground surface to 150 m below sea level. Since the repository will be built at 450 m below sea

  2. Sensitivity analysis and development of calibration methodology for near-surface hydrogeology model of Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aneljung, Maria; Sassner, Mona; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran

    2007-11-01

    This report describes modelling where the hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE has been used to describe surface hydrology, near-surface hydrogeology, advective transport mechanisms, and the contact between groundwater and surface water within the SKB site investigation area at Laxemar. In the MIKE SHE system, surface water flow is described with the one-dimensional modelling tool MIKE 11, which is fully and dynamically integrated with the groundwater flow module in MIKE SHE. In early 2008, a supplementary data set will be available and a process of updating, rebuilding and calibrating the MIKE SHE model based on this data set will start. Before the calibration on the new data begins, it is important to gather as much knowledge as possible on calibration methods, and to identify critical calibration parameters and areas within the model that require special attention. In this project, the MIKE SHE model has been further developed. The model area has been extended, and the present model also includes an updated bedrock model and a more detailed description of the surface stream network. The numerical model has been updated and optimized, especially regarding the modelling of evapotranspiration and the unsaturated zone, and the coupling between the surface stream network in MIKE 11 and the overland flow in MIKE SHE. An initial calibration has been made and a base case has been defined and evaluated. In connection with the calibration, the most important changes made in the model were the following: The evapotranspiration was reduced. The infiltration capacity was reduced. The hydraulic conductivities of the Quaternary deposits in the water-saturated part of the subsurface were reduced. Data from one surface water level monitoring station, four surface water discharge monitoring stations and 43 groundwater level monitoring stations (SSM series boreholes) have been used to evaluate and calibrate the model. The base case simulations showed a reasonable agreement

  3. Sensitivity analysis and development of calibration methodology for near-surface hydrogeology model of Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aneljung, Maria; Sassner, Mona; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB, Lilla Bommen 1, SE-411 04 Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2007-11-15

    This report describes modelling where the hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE has been used to describe surface hydrology, near-surface hydrogeology, advective transport mechanisms, and the contact between groundwater and surface water within the SKB site investigation area at Laxemar. In the MIKE SHE system, surface water flow is described with the one-dimensional modelling tool MIKE 11, which is fully and dynamically integrated with the groundwater flow module in MIKE SHE. In early 2008, a supplementary data set will be available and a process of updating, rebuilding and calibrating the MIKE SHE model based on this data set will start. Before the calibration on the new data begins, it is important to gather as much knowledge as possible on calibration methods, and to identify critical calibration parameters and areas within the model that require special attention. In this project, the MIKE SHE model has been further developed. The model area has been extended, and the present model also includes an updated bedrock model and a more detailed description of the surface stream network. The numerical model has been updated and optimized, especially regarding the modelling of evapotranspiration and the unsaturated zone, and the coupling between the surface stream network in MIKE 11 and the overland flow in MIKE SHE. An initial calibration has been made and a base case has been defined and evaluated. In connection with the calibration, the most important changes made in the model were the following: The evapotranspiration was reduced. The infiltration capacity was reduced. The hydraulic conductivities of the Quaternary deposits in the water-saturated part of the subsurface were reduced. Data from one surface water level monitoring station, four surface water discharge monitoring stations and 43 groundwater level monitoring stations (SSM series boreholes) have been used to evaluate and calibrate the model. The base case simulations showed a reasonable agreement

  4. Sensitivity analysis and development of calibration methodology for near-surface hydrogeology model of Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aneljung, Maria; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran

    2007-04-01

    The hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE has been used to describe near-surface groundwater flow, transport mechanisms and the contact between ground- and surface water at the Forsmark site. The surface water system at Forsmark is described with the 1D modelling tool MIKE 11, which is fully and dynamically integrated with MIKE SHE. In spring 2007, a new data freeze will be available and a process of updating, rebuilding and calibrating the MIKE SHE model will start, based on the latest data set. Prior to this, it is important to gather as much knowledge as possible on calibration methods and to define critical calibration parameters and areas within the model. In this project, an optimization of the numerical description and an initial calibration of the MIKE SHE model has been made, and an updated base case has been defined. Data from 5 surface water level monitoring stations, 4 surface water discharge monitoring stations and 32 groundwater level monitoring stations (SFM soil boreholes) has been used for model calibration and evaluation. The base case simulations generally show a good agreement between calculated and measured water levels and discharges, indicating that the total runoff from the area is well described by the model. Moreover, with two exceptions (SFM0012 and SFM0022) the base case results show very good agreement between calculated and measured groundwater head elevations for boreholes installed below lakes. The model also shows a reasonably good agreement between calculated and measured groundwater head elevations or depths to phreatic surfaces in many other points. The following major types of calculation-measurement differences can be noted: Differences in groundwater level amplitudes due to transpiration processes. Differences in absolute mean groundwater head, due to differences between borehole casing levels and the interpolated DEM. Differences in absolute mean head elevations, due to local errors in hydraulic conductivity values

  5. Sensitivity analysis and development of calibration methodology for near-surface hydrogeology model of Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aneljung, Maria; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran [DHI Water and Environment AB, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2007-04-15

    The hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE has been used to describe near-surface groundwater flow, transport mechanisms and the contact between ground- and surface water at the Forsmark site. The surface water system at Forsmark is described with the 1D modelling tool MIKE 11, which is fully and dynamically integrated with MIKE SHE. In spring 2007, a new data freeze will be available and a process of updating, rebuilding and calibrating the MIKE SHE model will start, based on the latest data set. Prior to this, it is important to gather as much knowledge as possible on calibration methods and to define critical calibration parameters and areas within the model. In this project, an optimization of the numerical description and an initial calibration of the MIKE SHE model has been made, and an updated base case has been defined. Data from 5 surface water level monitoring stations, 4 surface water discharge monitoring stations and 32 groundwater level monitoring stations (SFM soil boreholes) has been used for model calibration and evaluation. The base case simulations generally show a good agreement between calculated and measured water levels and discharges, indicating that the total runoff from the area is well described by the model. Moreover, with two exceptions (SFM0012 and SFM0022) the base case results show very good agreement between calculated and measured groundwater head elevations for boreholes installed below lakes. The model also shows a reasonably good agreement between calculated and measured groundwater head elevations or depths to phreatic surfaces in many other points. The following major types of calculation-measurement differences can be noted: Differences in groundwater level amplitudes due to transpiration processes. Differences in absolute mean groundwater head, due to differences between borehole casing levels and the interpolated DEM. Differences in absolute mean head elevations, due to local errors in hydraulic conductivity values

  6. Modeling the Impacts of Boreal Deforestation on the Near-Surface Temperature in European Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihui Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Boreal deforestation plays an important role in affecting regional and global climate. In this study, the regional temperature variation induced by future boreal deforestation in European Russia boreal forest region was simulated based on future land cover change and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. This study firstly tested and validated the simulation results of the WRF model. Then the land cover datasets in different years (2000 as baseline year, 2010, and 2100 was used in the WRF model to explore the impacts of boreal deforestation on the near-surface temperature. The results indicated that the WRF model has good ability to simulate the temperature change in European Russia. The land cover change in European Russia boreal forest region, which will be characterized by the conversion from boreal forests to croplands (boreal deforestation in the future 100 years, will lead to significant change of the near-surface temperature. The regional annual temperature will decrease by 0.58°C in the future 100 years, resulting in cooling effects to some extent and making the near-surface temperature decrease in most seasons except the spring.

  7. Inverting near-surface models from virtual-source gathers (SM Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruigrok, Elmer; Vossen, Caron; Paulssen, Hanneke

    2017-04-01

    The Groningen gas field is a massive natural gas accumulation in the north-east of the Netherlands. Decades of production have led to significant compaction of the reservoir rock. The (differential) compaction is thought to have reactivated existing faults and to be the main driver of induced seismicity. The potential damage at the surface is largely affected by the state of the near surface. Thin and soft sedimentary layers can lead to large amplifications. By measuring the wavefield at different depth levels, near-surface properties can directly be estimated from the recordings. Seismicity in the Groningen area is monitored primarily with an array of vertical arrays. In the nineties a network of 8 boreholes was deployed. Since 2015, this network has been expanded with 70 new boreholes. Each new borehole consists of an accelerometer at the surface and four downhole geophones with a vertical spacing of 50 m. We apply seismic interferometry to local seismicity, for each borehole individually. Doing so, we obtain the responses as if there were virtual sources at the lowest geophones and receivers at the other depth levels. From the retrieved direct waves and reflections, we invert for P- & S- velocity and Q models. We discuss different implementations of seismic interferometry and the subsequent inversion. The inverted near-surface properties are used to improve both the source location and the hazard assessment.

  8. Ground penetrating radar documents short-term near-surface hydrological changes around Old Faithful Geyser, Yellowstone National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynne, Bridget Y.; Heasler, Henry; Jaworowski, Cheryl; Smith, Gary J.; Smith, Isaac J.; Foley, Duncan

    2018-04-01

    In April 2015, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) was used to characterize the shallow subsurface (images were collected between two eruptions of Old Faithful Geyser. Each set of time-sequence GPR recordings consisted of four transects aligned to provide coverage near the potential location of the inferred 15 m deep geyser chamber. However, the deepest penetration we could achieve with a 200 MHz GPR antennae was 5 m. Seven time-sequence events were collected over a 48-minute interval to image changes in the near-surface, during pre- and post-eruptive cycles. Time-sequence GPR images revealed a series of possible micro-fractures in a highly porous siliceous sinter in the near-surface that fill and drain repetitively, immediately after an eruption and during the recharge period prior to the next main eruptive event.

  9. Critical Zone structure inferred from multiscale near surface geophysical and hydrological data across hillslopes at the Eel River CZO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. S.; Rempe, D. M.; Holbrook, W. S.; Schmidt, L.; Hahm, W. J.; Dietrich, W. E.

    2017-12-01

    Except for boreholes and road cut, landslide, and quarry exposures, the subsurface structure of the critical zone (CZ) of weathered bedrock is relatively invisible and unmapped, yet this structure controls the short and long term fluxes of water and solutes. Non-invasive geophysical methods such as seismic refraction are widely applied to image the structure of the CZ at the hillslope scale. However, interpretations of such data are often limited due to heterogeneity and anisotropy contributed from fracturing, moisture content, and mineralogy on the seismic signal. We develop a quantitative framework for using seismic refraction tomography from intersecting geophysical surveys and hydrologic data obtained at the Eel River Critical Zone Observatory (ERCZO) in Northern California to help quantify the nature of subsurface structure across multiple hillslopes of varying topography in the area. To enhance our understanding of modeled velocity gradients and boundaries in relation to lithological properties, we compare refraction tomography results with borehole logs of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), gamma and neutron density, standard penetration testing, and observation drilling logs. We also incorporate laboratory scale rock characterization including mineralogical and elemental analyses as well as porosity and density measurements made via pycnometry, helium and mercury porosimetry, and laboratory scale NMR. We evaluate the sensitivity of seismically inferred saprolite-weathered bedrock and weathered-unweathered bedrock boundaries to various velocity and inversion parameters in relation with other macro scale processes such as gravitational and tectonic forces in influencing weathered bedrock velocities. Together, our sensitivity analyses and multi-method data comparison provide insight into the interpretation of seismic refraction tomography for the quantification of CZ structure and hydrologic dynamics.

  10. Conceptual model to determine maximum activity of radioactive waste in near-surface disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iarmosh, I.; Olkhovyk, Yu.

    2016-01-01

    For development of the management strategy for radioactive waste to be placed in near - surface disposal facilities (NSDF), it is necessary to justify long - term safety of such facilities. Use of mathematical modelling methods for long - term forecasts of radwaste radiation impact and assessment of radiation risks from radionuclides migration can help to resolve this issue. The purpose of the research was to develop the conceptual model for determining the maximum activity of radwaste to be safely disposed in the NSDF and to test it in the case of Lot 3 Vector NSDF (Chornobyl exclusion zone). This paper describes an approach to the development of such a model. The conceptual model of "9"0 Sr migration from Lot 3 through aeration zone and aquifer soils was developed. The results of modelling are shown. The proposals on further steps for the model improvement were developed

  11. Conceptual and Numerical Modeling of Radionuclide Transport and Retention in Near-Surface Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pique, Angels; Arcos, David; Grandia, Fidel; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Berglund, Sten

    2013-01-01

    Scenarios of barrier failure and radionuclide release to the near-surface environment are important to consider within performance and safety assessments of repositories for nuclear waste. A geological repository for spent nuclear fuel is planned at Forsmark, Sweden. Conceptual and numerical reactive transport models were developed in order to assess the retention capacity of the Quaternary till and clay deposits for selected radionuclides, in the event of an activity release from the repository. The elements considered were carbon (C), chlorine (Cl), cesium (Cs), iodine (I), molybdenum (Mo), niobium (Nb), nickel (Ni), radium (Ra), selenium (Se), strontium (Sr), technetium (Tc), thorium (Th), and uranium (U). According to the numerical predictions, the repository-derived nuclides that would be most significantly retained are Th, Ni, and Cs, mainly through sorption onto clays, followed by U, C, Sr, and Ra, trapped by sorption and/or incorporation into mineral phases

  12. Application of near-surface geophysics as part of a hydrologic study of a subsurface drip irrigation system along the Powder River floodplain near Arvada, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sams, James I.; Veloski, Garret; Smith, Bruce D.; Minsley, Burke J.; Engle, Mark A.; Lipinski, Brian A.; Hammack, Richard W.; Zupancic, John W.

    2014-01-01

    Rapid development of coalbed natural gas (CBNG) production in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming has occurred since 1997. National attention related to CBNG development has focused on produced water management, which is the single largest cost for on-shore domestic producers. Low-cost treatment technologies allow operators to reduce their disposal costs, provide treated water for beneficial use, and stimulate oil and gas production by small operators. Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) systems are one potential treatment option that allows for increased CBNG production by providing a beneficial use for the produced water in farmland irrigation.Water management practices in the development of CBNG in Wyoming have been aided by integrated geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic studies of both the disposal and utilization of water. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have utilized multi-frequency airborne, ground, and borehole electromagnetic (EM) and ground resistivity methods to characterize the near-surface hydrogeology in areas of produced water disposal. These surveys provide near-surface EM data that can be compared with results of previous surveys to monitor changes in soils and local hydrology over time as the produced water is discharged through SDI.The focus of this investigation is the Headgate Draw SDI site, situated adjacent to the Powder River near the confluence of a major tributary, Crazy Woman Creek, in Johnson County, Wyoming. The SDI system was installed during the summer of 2008 and began operation in October of 2008. Ground, borehole, and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) conductivity surveys were conducted at the site prior to the installation of the SDI system. After the installation of the subsurface drip irrigation system, ground EM surveys have been performed quarterly (weather permitting). The geophysical surveys map the heterogeneity of the near-surface

  13. Numerical modeling of the Near Surface Test Facility No. 1 and No. 2 heater tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hocking, G.; Williams, J.; Boonlualohr, P.; Mathews, I.; Mustoe, G.

    1981-01-01

    Thermomechanical predictive calculations have been undertaken for two full scale heater tests No. 1 and No. 2 at the Near Surface Test Facility (NSTF) at Hanford, Washington. Numerical predictions were made of the basaltic rock response involving temperatures, displacements, strains and stresses due to energizing the electrical heaters. The basalt rock mass was modeled as an isotropic thermal material but with temperature dependent thermal conductivity, specific heat and thermal expansion. The fractured nature of the basalt necessitated that it be modeled as a cross anisotropic medium with a bi-linear locking stress strain relationship. The cross-anisotropic idealization was selected after characterization studies indicated that a vertical columnar structure persisted throughout the test area and no major throughgoing discontinuities were present. The deformational properties were determined from fracture frequency and orientation, joint deformational data, Goodman Jack results and two rock mass classification schemes. Similar deformational moduli were determined from these techniques, except for the Goodman Jack results. The finite element technique was utilized for both the non-linear thermal and mechanical computations. An incremental stiffness method with residual force correction was employed to solve the non-linear problem by piecewise linearization. Two and three dimensional thermomechanical scoping calculations were made to assess the significance of various parameters and associated errors with geometrical idealizations. Both heater tests were modeled as two dimensional axisymmetric geometry with water assumed to be absent. Instrument response was predicted for all of the thermocouples, extensometers, USBM borehole deformation and IRAD gages for the entire duration of both tests

  14. Improved Overpressure Recording and Modeling for Near-Surface Explosion Forensics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, K.; Schnurr, J.; Garces, M. A.; Rodgers, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The accurate recording and analysis of air-blast acoustic waveforms is a key component of the forensic analysis of explosive events. Smartphone apps can enhance traditional technologies by providing scalable, cost-effective ubiquitous sensor solutions for monitoring blasts, undeclared activities, and inaccessible facilities. During a series of near-surface chemical high explosive tests, iPhone 6's running the RedVox infrasound recorder app were co-located with high-fidelity Hyperion overpressure sensors, allowing for direct comparison of the resolution and frequency content of the devices. Data from the traditional sensors is used to characterize blast signatures and to determine relative iPhone microphone amplitude and phase responses. A Wiener filter based source deconvolution method is applied, using a parameterized source function estimated from traditional overpressure sensor data, to estimate system responses. In addition, progress on a new parameterized air-blast model is presented. The model is based on the analysis of a large set of overpressure waveforms from several surface explosion test series. An appropriate functional form with parameters determined empirically from modern air-blast and acoustic data will allow for better parameterization of signals and the improved characterization of explosive sources.

  15. Modeling and observational occurrences of near-surface drainage in Utopia Planitia, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costard, F.; Sejourne, A.; Kargel, J.; Godin, E.

    2016-12-01

    During the past 15 years, evidence for an ice-rich planet Mars has rapidly mounted, become increasingly varied in terms of types of deposits and types of observational data, and has become more widespread across the surface. The mid-latitudes of Mars, especially Utopia Planitia, show many types of interesting landforms similar to those in periglacial landscapes on Earth that suggest the presence of ice-rich permafrost. These include thermal contraction polygonal networks, scalloped terrains similar to thermokarst pits, debris flows, small mounds like pingos and rock glaciers. Here, we address questions concerning the influence of meltwater in the Utopia Planitia (UP) landscape using analogs of near-surface melting and drainage along ice-wedge troughs on Bylot Island, northern Canada. In Utopia Planitia, based on the identification of sinuous channel-like pits within polygonal networks, we suggest that episodic underground melting was possible under severe periglacial climate conditions. In UP, the collapse pattern and morphology of unconnected sinuous elongated pits that follow the polygon crack are similar to underground melting in Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada). Based on this terrestrial analogue, we develop a thermal model that consists of a thick insulating dusty layer over ice-saturated dust during a period of slight climatic warming relative to today's climate. In the model, the melting point is reached at depths down to 150 m. We suggest that small-scale melting could have occurred below ground within ground-ice polygonal fractures and pooled in underground cavities. Then the water may have been released episodically causing mechanical erosion as well as undermining and collapse. After melting, the dry surface dusty layer might have been blown away, thus exposing the degraded terrain of the substrate layer.

  16. Radionuclide transport modelling for a buried near surface low level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terzi, R.

    2004-01-01

    The disposal of radioactive waste, which is the last step of any radioactive waste management policy, has not yet been developed in Turkey. The existing legislation states only the discharge limits for the radioactive wastes to be discharged to the environment. The objective of this modelling study is to assist in safety assessment and selecting disposal site for gradually increasing non-nuclear radioactive wastes. This mathematical model has been developed for the environmental radiological assessment of near surface disposal sites for the low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. The model comprised of three main components: source term, geosphere transport and radiological assessment. Radiation dose for the babies (1 years age) and adults (≥17 years age) have been computed for the radionuclides Cesium 137 (Cs-137) and Strontium 90 (Sr-90), having the activity of 1.10 12 Becquerel(Bq), in radioactive waste through transport of radionuclide in liquid phase with the various pathways. The model consisted of first order ordinary differential equations was coded as a TCODE file in MATLAB program. The radiation dose to man for the realist case and low probability case have been calculated by using Runge-Kutta solution method in MATLAB programme for radionuclide transport from repository to soil layer and then to the ground water(saturated zone) through drinking water directly and consuming agricultural and animal products pathways in one year period. Also, the fatal cancer risk assessment has been made by taking into account the annual dose received by people. Various dose values for both radionuclides have been found which depended on distribution coefficient, retardation factor and dose conversion factors. The most important critical parameters on radiological safety assessment are the distribution coefficient in soil layer, seepage velocity in unsaturated zone and thickness of the unsaturated zone (soil zone). The highest radiation dose and average dose to

  17. Modelling of nuclide migration for support of the site selection for near surface repository in Lithuania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilda, R.; Poskas, P.; Ragaisis, V.

    2006-01-01

    Construction of the near surface repository (NSR) for disposal of short-lived low-and intermediate-level waste (LILW) is planned in Lithuania. Reference design of the repository was prepared. Site selection process is going on. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Program and Report were prepared and are under review by regulators. Releases of radionuclides to water pathway and potential human exposure after closure of the NSR have been assessed for support of the site selection for NSR installation. Two candidate sites were taken under consideration. The assessments have been performed following ISAM methodology recommended by IAEA for safety assessments of near surface disposal facilities. The conceptual design of NSR as well as peculiarities of geological and hydro-geological environment relevant to each candidate site is taken into account. The results of the analysis as part of EIA Report are presented in the paper. It is demonstrated that estimated impact of potential radionuclide migration for both candidate sites is below dose constrain established by regulations of Lithuania. (author)

  18. Preliminary thermal and thermomechanical modeling for the near surface test facility heater experiments at Hanford. Volume II: Appendix D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, T.; Remer, J.S.

    1978-12-01

    Appendix D is a complete set of figures illustrating the detailed calculations necessary for designing the heater experiments at the Near Surface Test Facility (NSTF) at Hanford, Washington. The discussion of the thermal and thermomechanical modeling that yielded these calculations is presented in Volume 1. A summary of the figures and the models they illustrate is given in table D1. The most important figures have also been included in the discussion in Volume 1, and Table D2 lists the figure numbers in this volume that correspond to figure numbers used there

  19. netherland hydrological modeling instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  20. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...

  1. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  2. Hydrological models are mediating models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  3. Safety Assessment for LILW Near-Surface Disposal Facility Using the IAEA Reference Model and MASCOT Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyun Joo; Park, Joo Wan; Kim, Chang Lak

    2002-01-01

    A reference scenario of vault safety case prepared by the IAEA for the near-surface disposal facility of low-and intermediate-level radioactive wastes is assessed with the MASCOT program. The appropriate conceptual models for the MASCOT implementation is developed. An assessment of groundwater pathway through a drinking well as a geosphere-biosphere interface is performed first, then biosphere pathway is analysed to estimate the radiological consequences of the disposed radionuclides based on compartment modeling approach. The validity of conceptual modeling for the reference scenario is investigated where possible comparing to the results generated by the other assessment. The result of this study shows that the typical conceptual model for groundwater pathway represented by the compartment model can be satisfactorily used for safety assessment of the entire disposal system in a consistent way. It is also shown that safety assessment of a disposal facility considering complex and various pathways would be possible by the MASCOT program

  4. Modeling thermal dynamics of active layer soils and near-surface permafrost using a fully coupled water and heat transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yueyang; Zhuang, Qianlai; O'Donnell, Jonathan A.

    2012-01-01

    Thawing and freezing processes are key components in permafrost dynamics, and these processes play an important role in regulating the hydrological and carbon cycles in the northern high latitudes. In the present study, we apply a well-developed soil thermal model that fully couples heat and water transport, to simulate the thawing and freezing processes at daily time steps across multiple sites that vary with vegetation cover, disturbance history, and climate. The model performance was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured soil temperatures at different depths. We use the model to explore the influence of climate, fire disturbance, and topography (north- and south-facing slopes) on soil thermal dynamics. Modeled soil temperatures agree well with measured values for both boreal forest and tundra ecosystems at the site level. Combustion of organic-soil horizons during wildfire alters the surface energy balance and increases the downward heat flux through the soil profile, resulting in the warming and thawing of near-surface permafrost. A projection of 21st century permafrost dynamics indicates that as the climate warms, active layer thickness will likely increase to more than 3 meters in the boreal forest site and deeper than one meter in the tundra site. Results from this coupled heat-water modeling approach represent faster thaw rates than previously simulated in other studies. We conclude that the discussed soil thermal model is able to well simulate the permafrost dynamics and could be used as a tool to analyze the influence of climate change and wildfire disturbance on permafrost thawing.

  5. Thermal-hydrological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buscheck, T., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    This chapter describes the physical processes and natural and engineered system conditions that affect thermal-hydrological (T-H) behavior in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain and how these effects are represented in mathematical and numerical models that are used to predict T-H conditions in the near field, altered zone, and engineered barrier system (EBS), and on waste package (WP) surfaces.

  6. Modelling for near-surface interaction of lithium ceramics and sweep-gas by use of cellular automation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimura, K.; Terai, T.; Yamawaki, M.; Yamaguchi, K.

    2003-01-01

    Tritium release from the lithium ceramics as a fusion reactor breeder material is strongly affected by the composition of the sweep-gas as result of its influences with the material's surface. The typical surface processes which play important roles are adsorption, desorption and interaction between vacancy site and the constituents of the sweep-gas. Among a large number of studies and models, yet it seems to be difficult to model the overall behaviour of those processes due to its complex time-transient nature. In the present work the coarse grained atomic simulation based on the Cellular Automaton (CA) is used to model the dynamics of near-surface interaction between Li 2 O surface and sweep-gas that is consisting of a noble gas, hydrogen gas and water vapour. (author)

  7. Finite-difference modeling and dispersion analysis of high-frequency love waves for near-surface applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.; Xia, J.; Xu, Y.; Zeng, C.; Liu, J.

    2010-01-01

    Love-wave propagation has been a topic of interest to crustal, earthquake, and engineering seismologists for many years because it is independent of Poisson's ratio and more sensitive to shear (S)-wave velocity changes and layer thickness changes than are Rayleigh waves. It is well known that Love-wave generation requires the existence of a low S-wave velocity layer in a multilayered earth model. In order to study numerically the propagation of Love waves in a layered earth model and dispersion characteristics for near-surface applications, we simulate high-frequency (>5 Hz) Love waves by the staggered-grid finite-difference (FD) method. The air-earth boundary (the shear stress above the free surface) is treated using the stress-imaging technique. We use a two-layer model to demonstrate the accuracy of the staggered-grid modeling scheme. We also simulate four-layer models including a low-velocity layer (LVL) or a high-velocity layer (HVL) to analyze dispersive energy characteristics for near-surface applications. Results demonstrate that: (1) the staggered-grid FD code and stress-imaging technique are suitable for treating the free-surface boundary conditions for Love-wave modeling, (2) Love-wave inversion should be treated with extra care when a LVL exists because of a lack of LVL information in dispersions aggravating uncertainties in the inversion procedure, and (3) energy of high modes in a low-frequency range is very weak, so that it is difficult to estimate the cutoff frequency accurately, and "mode-crossing" occurs between the second higher and third higher modes when a HVL exists. ?? 2010 Birkh??user / Springer Basel AG.

  8. A two-dimensional atmospheric chemistry modeling investigation of Earth's Phanerozoic O3 and near-surface ultraviolet radiation history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harfoot, Michael B. J.; Beerling, David J.; Lomax, Barry H.; Pyle, John A.

    2007-04-01

    We use the Cambridge two-dimensional (2-D) chemistry-radiation transport model to investigate the implications for column O3 and near-surface ultraviolet radiation (UV), of variations in atmospheric O2 content over the Phanerozoic (last 540 Myr). Model results confirm some earlier 1-D model investigations showing that global annual mean O3 column increases monotonically with atmospheric O2. Sensitivity studies indicate that changes in temperature and N2O exert a minor influence on O3 relative to O2. We reconstructed Earth's O3 history by interpolating the modeled relationship between O3 and O2 onto two Phanerozoic O2 histories. Our results indicate that the largest variation in Phanerozoic column O3 occurred between 400 and 200 Myr ago, corresponding to a rise in atmospheric O2 to ˜1.5 times the present atmospheric level (PAL) and subsequent fall to ˜0.5 PAL. The O3 response to this O2 decline shows latitudinal differences, thinning most at high latitudes (30-40 Dobson units (1 DU = 0.001 atm cm) at 66°N) and least at low latitudes (5-10 DU at 9°N) where a "self-healing" effect is evident. This O3 depletion coincides with significant increases in the near-surface biologically active UV radiation at high latitudes, +28% as weighted by the Thimijan spectral weighting function. O3 and UV changes were exacerbated when we incorporated a direct feedback of the terrestrial biosphere on atmospheric chemistry, through enhanced N2O production as the climate switched from an icehouse to a greenhouse mode. On the basis of a summary of field and laboratory experimental evidence, we suggest that these UV radiation increases may have exerted subtle rather than catastrophic effects on ecosystem processes.

  9. Estimating daily minimum, maximum, and mean near surface air temperature using hybrid satellite models across Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Adar; Dorman, Michael; Schwartz, Joel; Novack, Victor; Just, Allan C; Kloog, Itai

    2017-11-01

    Meteorological stations measure air temperature (Ta) accurately with high temporal resolution, but usually suffer from limited spatial resolution due to their sparse distribution across rural, undeveloped or less populated areas. Remote sensing satellite-based measurements provide daily surface temperature (Ts) data in high spatial and temporal resolution and can improve the estimation of daily Ta. In this study we developed spatiotemporally resolved models which allow us to predict three daily parameters: Ta Max (day time), 24h mean, and Ta Min (night time) on a fine 1km grid across the state of Israel. We used and compared both the Aqua and Terra MODIS satellites. We used linear mixed effect models, IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolations and thin plate splines (using a smooth nonparametric function of longitude and latitude) to first calibrate between Ts and Ta in those locations where we have available data for both and used that calibration to fill in neighboring cells without surface monitors or missing Ts. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross validation (CV) was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. Our model performance was excellent for both days with and without available Ts observations for both Aqua and Terra (CV Aqua R 2 results for min 0.966, mean 0.986, and max 0.967; CV Terra R 2 results for min 0.965, mean 0.987, and max 0.968). Our research shows that daily min, mean and max Ta can be reliably predicted using daily MODIS Ts data even across Israel, with high accuracy even for days without Ta or Ts data. These predictions can be used as three separate Ta exposures in epidemiology studies for better diurnal exposure assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

    1980-04-01

    A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

  11. Near-surface structural model for deformation associated with the February 7, 1812, New Madrid, Missouri, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odum, J.K.; Stephenson, W.J.; Shedlock, K.M.; Pratt, T.L.

    1998-01-01

    The February 7, 1812, New Madrid, Missouri, earthquake (M [moment magnitude] 8) was the third and final large-magnitude event to rock the northern Mississippi Embayment during the winter of 1811-1812. Although ground shaking was so strong that it rang church bells, stopped clocks, buckled pavement, and rocked buildings up and down the eastern seaboard, little coseismic surface deformation exists today in the New Madrid area. The fault(s) that ruptured during this event have remained enigmatic. We have integrated geomorphic data documenting differential surficial deformation (supplemented by historical accounts of surficial deformation and earthquake-induced Mississippi River waterfalls and rapids) with the interpretation of existing and recently acquired seismic reflection data, to develop a tectonic model of the near-surface structures in the New Madrid, Missouri, area. This model consists of two primary components: a northnorthwest-trending thrust fault and a series of northeast-trending, strike-slip, tear faults. We conclude that the Reelfoot fault is a thrust fault that is at least 30 km long. We also infer that tear faults in the near surface partitioned the hanging wall into subparallel blocks that have undergone differential displacement during episodes of faulting. The northeast-trending tear faults bound an area documented to have been uplifted at least 0.5 m during the February 7, 1812, earthquake. These faults also appear to bound changes in the surface density of epicenters that are within the modern seismicity, which is occurring in the stepover zone of the left-stepping right-lateral strike-slip fault system of the modern New Madrid seismic zone.

  12. Safety assessment of hypothetical near surface disposal at Serpong site: far-field modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lubis, E.; D Mallants; G Volckraert

    2001-01-01

    The far field modeling of radionuclide disposed at Serpong site was carried out based on the hydrogeological data. The simulation of radionuclide in the groundwater was calculated by the PORFLOW computer code. The groundwater simulation was done for 2 cases. In the first case the conductivity of soil layer at Serpong site contains of two layers and in the second case just contains of one layer. The results of the first case, indicated that the flow calculations show that depending on the location of the disposal site, radionuclides that are released from the repository may either show up in the nearby Cisalak creek or in Cisadane river. The results of the second case indicated that the local flow system exist. This means that all radionuclides that migrate out of the repository will appear in the Cisalak creek. The transport time for radionuclides with a low retardation factor in lateric clay soil is around 10 years for a travel of 200 m distance

  13. Safety Assessment of a Hypothetical Near Surface Disposal at PPTN Serpong Site: Near-Field Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lubis, Erwansyah

    2000-01-01

    The near field modeling of a hypothetical surface disposal at Serpong site has been performed. Considering a realistic downward water flux of 10 -1 0 m/s through the conditioned waste zone and the concrete barriers, transport of radionuclide by advection and dispersion below the bottom of the repository was calculated using PORFLOW computer code. The result shows that the highest fluxes were observed H-3, Cs-135, Nb-94 and Ni-59, all about 10 4 Bq/a/m 2 . Intermediate fluxes were obtained for Cs-137, I-129 and Co-60. Lowest were due to Ni-63 and C-14. The effect on radionuclide fluxes by having an unsaturated soil of 1.0-m depth below the bottom of the repository also was investigated. The results indicate that the highest fluxes are due to Cs-135, Nb-94 and Ni- 59, approximately 10 4 Bq/a/m 2 . The fluxes owing to H-3 has decreased to 10 -9 Bq/a/m 2 owing to decay. Radionuclides that are not absorbed onto lateritic clay soil, C-14 and I-129 are not decreased in flux. All other radionuclides has significantly smaller fluxes compared to the ones calculated at the bottom of the repository. This indicates that the lateric clay soil at Serpong site plays an important role in retarding and dispersing the radionuclide migration towards the ground water. (author)

  14. Near-surface land disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kittel, J.H.

    1989-01-01

    The Radioactive Waste Management Handbook provides a comprehensive, systematic treatment of nuclear waste management. Near-Surface Land Disposal, the first volume, is a primary and secondary reference for the technical community. To those unfamiliar with the field, it provides a bridge to a wealth of technical information, presenting the technology associated with the near-surface disposal of low or intermediate level wastes. Coverage ranges from incipient planning to site closure and subsequent monitoring. The book discusses the importance of a systems approach during the design of new disposal facilities so that performance objectives can be achieved; gives an overview of the radioactive wastes cosigned to near-surface disposal; addresses procedures for screening and selecting sites; and emphasizes the importance of characterizing sites and obtaining reliable geologic and hydrologic data. The planning essential to the development of particular sites (land acquisition, access, layout, surface water management, capital costs, etc.) is considered, and site operations (waste receiving, inspection, emplacement, closure, stabilization, etc.) are reviewed. In addition, the book presents concepts for improved confinement of waste, important aspects of establishing a monitoring program at the disposal facility, and corrective actions available after closure to minimize release. Two analytical techniques for evaluating alternative technologies are presented. Nontechnical issues surrounding disposal, including the difficulties of public acceptance are discussed. A glossary of technical terms is included

  15. Blind test of methods for obtaining 2-D near-surface seismic velocity models from first-arrival traveltimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelt, Colin A.; Haines, Seth; Powers, Michael H.; Sheehan, Jacob; Rohdewald, Siegfried; Link, Curtis; Hayashi, Koichi; Zhao, Don; Zhou, Hua-wei; Burton, Bethany L.; Petersen, Uni K.; Bonal, Nedra D.; Doll, William E.

    2013-01-01

    Seismic refraction methods are used in environmental and engineering studies to image the shallow subsurface. We present a blind test of inversion and tomographic refraction analysis methods using a synthetic first-arrival-time dataset that was made available to the community in 2010. The data are realistic in terms of the near-surface velocity model, shot-receiver geometry and the data's frequency and added noise. Fourteen estimated models were determined by ten participants using eight different inversion algorithms, with the true model unknown to the participants until it was revealed at a session at the 2011 SAGEEP meeting. The estimated models are generally consistent in terms of their large-scale features, demonstrating the robustness of refraction data inversion in general, and the eight inversion algorithms in particular. When compared to the true model, all of the estimated models contain a smooth expression of its two main features: a large offset in the bedrock and the top of a steeply dipping low-velocity fault zone. The estimated models do not contain a subtle low-velocity zone and other fine-scale features, in accord with conventional wisdom. Together, the results support confidence in the reliability and robustness of modern refraction inversion and tomographic methods.

  16. Updated model for radionuclide transport in the near-surface till at Forsmark - Implementation of decay chains and sensitivity analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pique, Angels; Pekala, Marek; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Trinchero, Paolo; Vries, Luis Manuel de

    2013-02-01

    The Forsmark area has been proposed for potential siting of a deep underground (geological) repository for radioactive waste in Sweden. Safety assessment of the repository requires radionuclide transport from the disposal depth to recipients at the surface to be studied quantitatively. The near-surface quaternary deposits at Forsmark are considered a pathway for potential discharge of radioactivity from the underground facility to the biosphere, thus radionuclide transport in this system has been extensively investigated over the last years. The most recent work of Pique and co-workers (reported in SKB report R-10-30) demonstrated that in case of release of radioactivity the near-surface sedimentary system at Forsmark would act as an important geochemical barrier, retarding the transport of reactive radionuclides through a combination of retention processes. In this report the conceptual model of radionuclide transport in the quaternary till at Forsmark has been updated, by considering recent revisions regarding the near-surface lithology. In addition, the impact of important conceptual assumptions made in the model has been evaluated through a series of deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo) sensitivity calculations. The sensitivity study focused on the following effects: 1. Radioactive decay of 135 Cs, 59 Ni, 230 Th and 226 Ra and effects on their transport. 2. Variability in key geochemical parameters, such as the composition of the deep groundwater, availability of sorbing materials in the till, and mineral equilibria. 3. Variability in hydraulic parameters, such as the definition of hydraulic boundaries, and values of hydraulic conductivity, dispersivity and the deep groundwater inflow rate. The overarching conclusion from this study is that the current implementation of the model is robust (the model is largely insensitive to variations in the parameters within the studied ranges) and conservative (the Base Case calculations have a tendency to

  17. Updated model for radionuclide transport in the near-surface till at Forsmark - Implementation of decay chains and sensitivity analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pique, Angels; Pekala, Marek; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Trinchero, Paolo; Vries, Luis Manuel de [Amphos 21 Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain)

    2013-02-15

    The Forsmark area has been proposed for potential siting of a deep underground (geological) repository for radioactive waste in Sweden. Safety assessment of the repository requires radionuclide transport from the disposal depth to recipients at the surface to be studied quantitatively. The near-surface quaternary deposits at Forsmark are considered a pathway for potential discharge of radioactivity from the underground facility to the biosphere, thus radionuclide transport in this system has been extensively investigated over the last years. The most recent work of Pique and co-workers (reported in SKB report R-10-30) demonstrated that in case of release of radioactivity the near-surface sedimentary system at Forsmark would act as an important geochemical barrier, retarding the transport of reactive radionuclides through a combination of retention processes. In this report the conceptual model of radionuclide transport in the quaternary till at Forsmark has been updated, by considering recent revisions regarding the near-surface lithology. In addition, the impact of important conceptual assumptions made in the model has been evaluated through a series of deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo) sensitivity calculations. The sensitivity study focused on the following effects: 1. Radioactive decay of {sup 135}Cs, {sup 59}Ni, {sup 230}Th and {sup 226}Ra and effects on their transport. 2. Variability in key geochemical parameters, such as the composition of the deep groundwater, availability of sorbing materials in the till, and mineral equilibria. 3. Variability in hydraulic parameters, such as the definition of hydraulic boundaries, and values of hydraulic conductivity, dispersivity and the deep groundwater inflow rate. The overarching conclusion from this study is that the current implementation of the model is robust (the model is largely insensitive to variations in the parameters within the studied ranges) and conservative (the Base Case calculations have a

  18. Flexural Behavior of Concrete Beam Strengthened by Near-Surface Mounted CFRP Reinforcement Using Equivalent Section Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woo-tai Jung

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available FRP (fiber reinforced polymer has found wide applications as an alternative to steel rebar not only for the repair and strengthening of existing structures but also for the erection of new structures. Near-surface mounted (NSM strengthening was introduced as an alternative of externally bonded reinforcement (EBR but this method also experiences early bond failure, which stresses the importance of predicting accurately the bond failure behavior in order to evaluate precisely the performance of NSM reinforcement. This study proposes the equivalent section model assuming monolithic behavior of the filler and CFRP reinforcement. This equivalent section model enables establishing a bond failure model applicable independently of the sectional shape of the CFRP reinforcement. This so-derived bond failure model is then validated experimentally by means of beams flexure-strengthened by NSM CFRP reinforcements with various cross-sections. Finally, analytical analysis applying the bond failure model considering the equivalent section and defined failure criteria is performed. The results show the accuracy of the prediction of the failure mode as well as the accurate prediction of the experimental results regardless of the sectional shape of the CFRP reinforcement.

  19. Hydrological models for environmental management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolgov, Mikhail V

    2002-01-01

    .... Stochastic modelling and forecasting cannot at present adequately represent the characteristics of hydrological regimes, nor analyze the influence of water on processes that arise in biological...

  20. Mapping porosity of the deep critical zone in 3D using near-surface geophysics, rock physics modeling, and drilling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flinchum, B. A.; Holbrook, W. S.; Grana, D.; Parsekian, A.; Carr, B.; Jiao, J.

    2017-12-01

    Porosity is generated by chemical, physical and biological processes that work to transform bedrock into soil. The resulting porosity structure can provide specifics about these processes and can improve understanding groundwater storage in the deep critical zone. Near-surface geophysical methods, when combined with rock physics and drilling, can be a tool used to map porosity over large spatial scales. In this study, we estimate porosity in three-dimensions (3D) across a 58 Ha granite catchment. Observations focus on seismic refraction, downhole nuclear magnetic resonance logs, downhole sonic logs, and samples of core acquired by push coring. We use a novel petrophysical approach integrating two rock physics models, a porous medium for the saprolite and a differential effective medium for the fractured rock, that drive a Bayesian inversion to calculate porosity from seismic velocities. The inverted geophysical porosities are within about 0.05 m3/m3 of lab measured values. We extrapolate the porosity estimates below seismic refraction lines to a 3D volume using ordinary kriging to map the distribution of porosity in 3D up to depths of 80 m. This study provides a unique map of porosity on scale never-before-seen in critical zone science. Estimating porosity on these large spatial scales opens the door for improving and understanding the processes that shape the deep critical zone.

  1. Drainage effects on the transient, near-surface hydrologic response of a steep hillslope to rainfall: Implications for slope stability, Edmonds, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biavati, G.; Godt, J.W.; McKenna, J.P.

    2006-01-01

    Shallow landslides on steep (>25??) hillsides along Puget Sound have resulted in occasional loss of life and costly damage to property during intense or prolonged rainfall. As part of a larger project to assess landslide hazards in the Seattle area, the U.S. Geological Survey instrumented two coastal bluff sites in 2001 to observe the subsurface hydrologic response to rainfall. The instrumentation at one of these sites, near Edmonds, Washington, consists of two rain gauges, two water-content probes that measure volumetric water content at eight depths between 0.2 and 2.0 m, and two tensiometer nests that measure soil-water suction at six depths ranging from 0.2 to 1.5m. Measurements from these instruments are used to test one- and two-dimensional numerical models of infiltration and groundwater flow. Capillary-rise tests, performed in the laboratory on soil sample from the Edmonds site, are used to define the soil hydraulic properties for the wetting process. The field observations of water content and suction show an apparent effect of porosity variation with depth on the hydraulic response to rainfall. Using a range of physical properties consistent with our laboratory and field measurements, we perform sensitivity analyses to investigate the effects of variation in physical and hydraulic properties of the soil on rainfall infiltration, pore-pressure response, and, hence, slope stability. For a two-layer-system in which the hydraulic conductivity of the upper layer is at least 10 times greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, and the infiltration rate is greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, a perched water table forms above the layer boundary potentially destabilizing the upper layer of soil. Two-dimensional modeling results indicate that the addition of a simple trench drain to the same two-layer slope has differing effects on the hydraulic response depending on the initial pressure head conditions. For slope-parallel flow conditions

  2. Drainage effects on the transient, near-surface hydrologic response of a steep hillslope to rainfall: implications for slope stability, Edmonds, Washington, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Biavati

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Shallow landslides on steep (>25° hillsides along Puget Sound have resulted in occasional loss of life and costly damage to property during intense or prolonged rainfall. As part of a larger project to assess landslide hazards in the Seattle area, the U.S. Geological Survey instrumented two coastal bluff sites in 2001 to observe the subsurface hydrologic response to rainfall. The instrumentation at one of these sites, near Edmonds, Washington, consists of two rain gauges, two water-content probes that measure volumetric water content at eight depths between 0.2 and 2.0 m, and two tensiometer nests that measure soil-water suction at six depths ranging from 0.2 to 1.5 m. Measurements from these instruments are used to test one- and two-dimensional numerical models of infiltration and groundwater flow. Capillary-rise tests, performed in the laboratory on soil sample from the Edmonds site, are used to define the soil hydraulic properties for the wetting process. The field observations of water content and suction show an apparent effect of porosity variation with depth on the hydraulic response to rainfall. Using a range of physical properties consistent with our laboratory and field measurements, we perform sensitivity analyses to investigate the effects of variation in physical and hydraulic properties of the soil on rainfall infiltration, pore-pressure response, and, hence, slope stability. For a two-layer-system in which the hydraulic conductivity of the upper layer is at least 10 times greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, and the infiltration rate is greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, a perched water table forms above the layer boundary potentially destabilizing the upper layer of soil. Two-dimensional modeling results indicate that the addition of a simple trench drain to the same two-layer slope has differing effects on the hydraulic response depending on the initial pressure head conditions. For slope

  3. Conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide transport in near-surface systems at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pique, Angels; Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi

    2010-11-01

    In the framework of the SR-Site safety assessment, a conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide reactive transport in near-surface systems (including till and clay systems) at Forsmark has been carried out. The objective was to evaluate the retention capacity of the near-surface systems, composed of Quaternary deposits, which would be the last natural barrier for an eventual radionuclide release from the deep repository prior to reaching the biosphere. The studied radionuclides are 14 C, 129 I, 36 Cl, 94 Nb, 59 Ni, 93 Mo, 79 Se, 99 Tc, 230 Th, 90 Sr, 226 Ra, 135 Cs and U. Conceptual description and numerical simulations of radionuclide reactive transport show that cation exchange and surface complexation on illite are active processes for the retention of several radionuclides (U, Th, Ni, Cs, Sr, Ra). Surface complexation on iron hydroxide is an active process in the till system, able to effectively retain U and Ni. Another retention process of importance is the incorporation of the radionuclides into mineral phases, either by the precipitation of pure phases or solid solutions. Quantitative modelling has been useful to illustrate the incorporation of C and Sr in the carbonate solid solution in the considered model domains (till and clay), as well as the precipitation of uraninite in the clay sediments and the precipitation of native selenium and radiobarite in the till. Other mineral phases that could, a priori, retain U, Se, Nb and Tc do not precipitate in the simulations, either due to the pH-Eh conditions and/or because the dissolved concentration of the element is not high enough under the considered simulation conditions. It is important to keep in mind that changes in these parameters and in the boundary conditions could modify the predicted behaviour of these elements. The radionuclides that are most significantly retarded are Th, Ni and Cs, mainly through sorption onto illite. Therefore, if the amount of illite (or available sorption sites

  4. Conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide transport in near-surface systems at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pique, Angels; Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi (Amphos21 Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain))

    2010-11-15

    In the framework of the SR-Site safety assessment, a conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide reactive transport in near-surface systems (including till and clay systems) at Forsmark has been carried out. The objective was to evaluate the retention capacity of the near-surface systems, composed of Quaternary deposits, which would be the last natural barrier for an eventual radionuclide release from the deep repository prior to reaching the biosphere. The studied radionuclides are 14C, 129I, 36Cl, 94Nb, 59Ni, 93Mo, 79Se, 99Tc, 230Th, 90Sr, 226Ra, 135Cs and U. Conceptual description and numerical simulations of radionuclide reactive transport show that cation exchange and surface complexation on illite are active processes for the retention of several radionuclides (U, Th, Ni, Cs, Sr, Ra). Surface complexation on iron hydroxide is an active process in the till system, able to effectively retain U and Ni. Another retention process of importance is the incorporation of the radionuclides into mineral phases, either by the precipitation of pure phases or solid solutions. Quantitative modelling has been useful to illustrate the incorporation of C and Sr in the carbonate solid solution in the considered model domains (till and clay), as well as the precipitation of uraninite in the clay sediments and the precipitation of native selenium and radiobarite in the till. Other mineral phases that could, a priori, retain U, Se, Nb and Tc do not precipitate in the simulations, either due to the pH-Eh conditions and/or because the dissolved concentration of the element is not high enough under the considered simulation conditions. It is important to keep in mind that changes in these parameters and in the boundary conditions could modify the predicted behaviour of these elements. The radionuclides that are most significantly retarded are Th, Ni and Cs, mainly through sorption onto illite. Therefore, if the amount of illite (or available sorption sites) decreases, the

  5. Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Over the past few decades the horizontal resolution of regional climate models (RCMs) has steadily increased, leading to a better representation of small-scale topographic features and more details in simulating dynamical aspects, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain. Due to its complex terrain, the broader Adriatic region represents a major challenge to state-of-the-art RCMs in simulating local wind systems realistically. The objective of this study is to identify the added value in near-surface wind due to the refined grid spacing of RCMs. For this purpose, we use a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° grid spacing, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, a COSMO convection-parameterizing simulation at 0.11° and a COSMO convection-resolving simulation at 0.02° grid spacing. Surface station observations from this region and satellite QuikSCAT data over the Adriatic Sea have been compared against daily output obtained from the available simulations. Both day-to-day wind and its frequency distribution are examined. The results indicate that the 0.44° RCMs rarely outperform ERA-Interim reanalysis, while the performance of the high-resolution simulations surpasses that of ERA-Interim. We also disclose that refining the grid spacing to a few km is needed to properly capture the small-scale wind systems. Finally, we show that the simulations frequently yield the accurate angle of local wind regimes, such as for the Bora flow, but overestimate the associated wind magnitude. Finally, spectral analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations, indicating the correct temporal variability of the wind speed.

  6. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    The internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled atmosphere/ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed using near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure variables, and is compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux adjustments for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no significant climate drift for 1000 yr, but no flux adjustments for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability of the three variables. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 (atmospheric component of ECHO-G) stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modelled near-surface temperatures shows that the observed near-surface global warming is larger than internal variability produced by ECHO-G, supporting previous studies. The simulated global mean near-surface temperatures, however, show a 2-yr spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the El Nino Southern Oscillation signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (39 yr) is underestimated.

  7. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

  8. Data assimilation in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drecourt, Jean-Philippe

    Data assimilation is an invaluable tool in hydrological modelling as it allows to efficiently combine scarce data with a numerical model to obtain improved model predictions. In addition, data assimilation also provides an uncertainty analysis of the predictions made by the hydrological model....... In this thesis, the Kalman filter is used for data assimilation with a focus on groundwater modelling. However the developed techniques are general and can be applied also in other modelling domains. Modelling involves conceptualization of the processes of Nature. Data assimilation provides a way to deal...... with model non-linearities and biased errors. A literature review analyzes the most popular techniques and their application in hydrological modelling. Since bias is an important problem in groundwater modelling, two bias aware Kalman filters have been implemented and compared using an artificial test case...

  9. The Effects of Realistic Geological Heterogeneity on Seismic Modeling: Applications in Shear Wave Generation and Near-Surface Tunnel Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Christopher Scott

    compressional wave energy may be generated within the shear radiation node of the source. Interestingly, in some cases this shear wave may arise as a coherent pulse, which may be used to improve seismic imaging efforts. In the third and fourth chapters, I discuss the results of a numerical analysis and field study of seismic near-surface tunnel detection methods. Detecting unknown tunnels and voids, such as old mine workings or solution cavities in karst terrain, is a challenging prob- lem in geophysics and has implications for geotechnical design, public safety, and domestic security. Over the years, a number of different geophysical methods have been developed to locate these objects (microgravity, resistivity, seismic diffraction, etc.), each with varying results. One of the major challenges facing these methods is understanding the influence of geologic heterogeneity on their results, which makes this problem a natural extension of the modeling work discussed in previous chapters. In the third chapter, I present the results of a numerical study of surface-wave based tunnel detection methods. The results of this analysis show that these methods are capable of detecting a void buried within one wavelength of the surface, with size potentially much less than one wavelength. In addition, seismic surface- wave based detection methods are effective in media with moderate heterogeneity (epsilon < 5 %), and in fact, this heterogeneity may serve to increase the resolution of these methods. In the fourth chapter, I discuss the results of a field study of tunnel detection methods at a site within the Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve, near Antioch California. I use a com- bination of surface wave backscattering, 1D surface wave attenuation, and 2D attenuation tomography to locate and determine the condition of two tunnels at this site. These results compliment the numerical study in chapter 3 and highlight their usefulness for detecting tunnels at other sites.

  10. Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa

    2007-01-01

    In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

  11. Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.; Rae, J.

    1985-06-01

    This report summarises the work performed between January 1983 and December 1984 for the CEC/DOE contract 'Mathematical Modelling of Fracture Hydrology', under the following headings: 1) Statistical fracture network modelling, 2) Continuum models of flow and transport, 3) Simplified models, 4) Analysis of laboratory experiments and 5) Analysis of field experiments. (author)

  12. Flow of groundwater from great depths into the near surface deposits - modelling of a local domain in northeast Uppland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmen, Johan G.; Forsman, Jonas

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: To study the flow of groundwater from rock masses at great depths and into the surface near deposits by use of mathematical models; and to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater from great depths in the surface near deposits (quaternary deposits). The study is about the hydraulic interaction between the geosphere and the biosphere. Methodology: The system studied is represented by time dependent three dimensional mathematical models. The models include groundwater flows in the rock mass and in the quaternary deposits as well as surface water flows. The established groundwater models have such a resolution (degree of detail) that both rock masses at great depth and near surface deposits are included in the flow system studied. The modelling includes simulations under both steady state conditions and transient conditions The transient simulations represents the varying state of the groundwater system studied, caused by the variation in hydro-meteorological conditions during a normal year, a wet-year and a dry-year. The boundary condition along the topography of the model is a non-linear boundary condition, representing the ground surface above the sea and the varying actual groundwater recharge. Area studied: The area studied is located in Sweden, in the Northeast of the Uppland province, close to the Forsmark nuclear power plant. Water balance modelling: To obtain three significantly different groundwater recharge periods for the transient groundwater flow simulations a water balance modelling was carried out based on a statistical analysis of available hydro-meteorological data. To obtain a temporal distribution of the runoff (i.e. potential groundwater recharge), we have conducted a numerical time dependent water balance modelling. General conclusions of groundwater modelling: The discharge areas for the flow paths from great depth are given by the topography and located along valleys and lakes; the spatial and temporal extension of

  13. Flow of groundwater from great depths into the near surface deposits - modelling of a local domain in northeast Uppland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmen, Johan G.; Forsman, Jonas [Golder Associates, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-01-15

    Purpose: To study the flow of groundwater from rock masses at great depths and into the surface near deposits by use of mathematical models; and to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater from great depths in the surface near deposits (quaternary deposits). The study is about the hydraulic interaction between the geosphere and the biosphere. Methodology: The system studied is represented by time dependent three dimensional mathematical models. The models include groundwater flows in the rock mass and in the quaternary deposits as well as surface water flows. The established groundwater models have such a resolution (degree of detail) that both rock masses at great depth and near surface deposits are included in the flow system studied. The modelling includes simulations under both steady state conditions and transient conditions The transient simulations represents the varying state of the groundwater system studied, caused by the variation in hydro-meteorological conditions during a normal year, a wet-year and a dry-year. The boundary condition along the topography of the model is a non-linear boundary condition, representing the ground surface above the sea and the varying actual groundwater recharge. Area studied: The area studied is located in Sweden, in the Northeast of the Uppland province, close to the Forsmark nuclear power plant. Water balance modelling: To obtain three significantly different groundwater recharge periods for the transient groundwater flow simulations a water balance modelling was carried out based on a statistical analysis of available hydro-meteorological data. To obtain a temporal distribution of the runoff (i.e. potential groundwater recharge), we have conducted a numerical time dependent water balance modelling. General conclusions of groundwater modelling: The discharge areas for the flow paths from great depth are given by the topography and located along valleys and lakes; the spatial and temporal extension of

  14. Virtual hydrology observatory: an immersive visualization of hydrology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Simon; Cruz-Neira, Carolina; Habib, Emad; Gerndt, Andreas

    2009-02-01

    The Virtual Hydrology Observatory will provide students with the ability to observe the integrated hydrology simulation with an instructional interface by using a desktop based or immersive virtual reality setup. It is the goal of the virtual hydrology observatory application to facilitate the introduction of field experience and observational skills into hydrology courses through innovative virtual techniques that mimic activities during actual field visits. The simulation part of the application is developed from the integrated atmospheric forecast model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the hydrology model: Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Both the output from WRF and GSSHA models are then used to generate the final visualization components of the Virtual Hydrology Observatory. The various visualization data processing techniques provided by VTK are 2D Delaunay triangulation and data optimization. Once all the visualization components are generated, they are integrated into the simulation data using VRFlowVis and VR Juggler software toolkit. VR Juggler is used primarily to provide the Virtual Hydrology Observatory application with fully immersive and real time 3D interaction experience; while VRFlowVis provides the integration framework for the hydrologic simulation data, graphical objects and user interaction. A six-sided CAVETM like system is used to run the Virtual Hydrology Observatory to provide the students with a fully immersive experience.

  15. A shallow subsurface controlled release facility in Bozeman, Montana, USA, for testing near surface CO2 detection techniques and transport models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spangler, Lee H. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Chemistry and Biochemistry; Dobeck, Laura M. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Chemistry and Biochemistry; Repasky, Kevin S. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Nehrir, Amin R. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Humphries, Seth D. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Barr, Jamie L. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Keith, Charlie J. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Shaw, Joseph A. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Rouse, Joshua H. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Cunningham, Alfred B. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Benson, Sally M. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Global Climate and Energy Project; Oldenburg, Curtis M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Lewicki, Jennifer L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Wells, Arthur W. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Diehl, J. Rodney [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Strazisar, Brian R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Fessenden, Julianna E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Div. of Earth and Environmental Sciences; Rahn, Thom A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Div. of Earth and Environmental Sciences; Amonette, James E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Barr, Jon L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Pickles, William L. [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States). Earth and Planetary Sciences; Jacobson, James D. [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States). Earth and Planetary Sciences; Silver, Eli A. [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States). Earth and Planetary Sciences; Male, Erin J. [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States). Earth and Planetary Sciences; Rauch, Henry W. [Univ. of West Virginia, Morgantown, WV (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geography; Gullickson, Kadie S. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Chemistry and Biochemistry; Trautz, Robert [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Kharaka, Yousif [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Birkholzer, Jens [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Wielopolski, Lucien [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

    2010-03-01

    A controlled field pilot has been developed in Bozeman, Montana, USA, to study near surface CO2 transport and detection technologies. A slotted horizontal well divided into six zones was installed in the shallow subsurface. The scale and CO2 release rates were chosen to be relevant to developing monitoring strategies for geological carbon storage. The field site was characterized before injection, and CO2 transport and concentrations in saturated soil and the vadose zone were modeled. Controlled releases of CO2 from the horizontal well were performed in the summers of 2007 and 2008, and collaborators from six national labs, three universities, and the U. S. Geological Survey investigated movement of CO2 through the soil, water, plants, and air with a wide range of near surface detection techniques. An overview of these results will be presented.

  16. Complementary modelling of radionuclide retention in the near-surface system at Forsmark. Development of a reactive transport model using Forsmark 1.2 data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sena, Clara; Grandia, Fidel; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara (Amphos XXI Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain))

    2008-10-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is conducting a comprehensive geoscientific characterization of two alternative sites to allocate a deep geological repository of high level nuclear waste. The Site Characterization Program also includes the near-surface systems, which are expected to constitute the last geological barrier between the repository system and the earth's surface. The evaluation of the retention capacity of the near surface systems is, therefore, very relevant for the site characterization program. From the geological point of view, near-surface systems in the Forsmark area consist of Quaternary deposits that overlay a granitic bedrock. Glacial till is the most abundant outcropping Quaternary deposit (approx75% of surface extension) and the remainder is made up of clayey materials (glacial and post-glacial clays). These types of near-surface sediments show distinctive hydraulic and geochemical features. The main reactive mineral in the till deposits, for the time scale considered in this work, is calcium carbonate (calcite). This mineral is found along with clay minerals (e.g. illite) and Fe(III) hydroxides. In contrast, glacial and post-glacial clays are basically composed of illite with minor amounts of calcium carbonate, and containing organic matter-rich levels (gyttja) which can promote reducing conditions in the system. The assessment of the migration behaviour of selected long-lived radionuclides through the near-surface system of Forsmark was developed in an earlier work, that focused on the evaluation of the capacity of the Quaternary deposits for radionuclide retention. The work reported here is an improvement of the geochemical conceptual and numerical model already presented, based on data available in the Site Descriptive Model v 1.2 (Forsmark). Regarding the geochemical variability of the Quaternary deposits present at Forsmark and its implications on radionuclide mobility through the near-surface systems, a

  17. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2009-01-01

    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  18. Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rae, J.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Robinson, P.C.; Herbert, A.W.

    1984-04-01

    This progress report contains notes on three aspects of hydrological modelling. Work on hydrodynamic dispersion in fractured media has been extended to transverse dispersion. Further work has been done on diffusion into the rock matrix and its effect on solute transport. The program NAMSOL has been used for the MIRAGE code comparison exercise being organised by Atkins R and D. (author)

  19. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  20. Combined UHV/high-pressure catalysis setup for depth-resolved near-surface spectroscopic characterization and catalytic testing of model catalysts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayr, Lukas; Klötzer, Bernhard; Penner, Simon; Rameshan, Raffael; Rameshan, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    An ultra-high vacuum (UHV) setup for “real” and “inverse” model catalyst preparation, depth-resolved near-surface spectroscopic characterization, and quantification of catalytic activity and selectivity under technologically relevant conditions is described. Due to the all-quartz reactor attached directly to the UHV-chamber, transfer of the catalyst for in situ testing without intermediate contact to the ambient is possible. The design of the UHV-compatible re-circulating batch reactor setup allows the study of reaction kinetics under close to technically relevant catalytic conditions up to 1273 K without contact to metallic surfaces except those of the catalyst itself. With the attached differentially pumped exchangeable evaporators and the quartz-microbalance thickness monitoring equipment, a reproducible, versatile, and standardised sample preparation is possible. For three-dimensional near-surface sample characterization, the system is equipped with a hemispherical analyser for X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), electron-beam or X-ray-excited Auger-electron spectroscopy, and low-energy ion scattering measurements. Due the dedicated geometry of the X-ray gun (54.7°, “magic angle”) and the rotatable sample holder, depth analysis by angle-resolved XPS measurements can be performed. Thus, by the combination of characterisation methods with different information depths, a detailed three-dimensional picture of the electronic and geometric structure of the model catalyst can be obtained. To demonstrate the capability of the described system, comparative results for depth-resolved sample characterization and catalytic testing in methanol steam reforming on PdGa and PdZn near-surface intermetallic phases are shown

  1. Combined UHV/high-pressure catalysis setup for depth-resolved near-surface spectroscopic characterization and catalytic testing of model catalysts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, Lukas; Rameshan, Raffael; Klötzer, Bernhard; Penner, Simon; Rameshan, Christoph

    2014-05-01

    An ultra-high vacuum (UHV) setup for "real" and "inverse" model catalyst preparation, depth-resolved near-surface spectroscopic characterization, and quantification of catalytic activity and selectivity under technologically relevant conditions is described. Due to the all-quartz reactor attached directly to the UHV-chamber, transfer of the catalyst for in situ testing without intermediate contact to the ambient is possible. The design of the UHV-compatible re-circulating batch reactor setup allows the study of reaction kinetics under close to technically relevant catalytic conditions up to 1273 K without contact to metallic surfaces except those of the catalyst itself. With the attached differentially pumped exchangeable evaporators and the quartz-microbalance thickness monitoring equipment, a reproducible, versatile, and standardised sample preparation is possible. For three-dimensional near-surface sample characterization, the system is equipped with a hemispherical analyser for X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), electron-beam or X-ray-excited Auger-electron spectroscopy, and low-energy ion scattering measurements. Due the dedicated geometry of the X-ray gun (54.7°, "magic angle") and the rotatable sample holder, depth analysis by angle-resolved XPS measurements can be performed. Thus, by the combination of characterisation methods with different information depths, a detailed three-dimensional picture of the electronic and geometric structure of the model catalyst can be obtained. To demonstrate the capability of the described system, comparative results for depth-resolved sample characterization and catalytic testing in methanol steam reforming on PdGa and PdZn near-surface intermetallic phases are shown.

  2. Moving towards Hyper-Resolution Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouf, T.; Maggioni, V.; Houser, P.; Mei, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Developing a predictive capability for terrestrial hydrology across landscapes, with water, energy and nutrients as the drivers of these dynamic systems, faces the challenge of scaling meter-scale process understanding to practical modeling scales. Hyper-resolution land surface modeling can provide a framework for addressing science questions that we are not able to answer with coarse modeling scales. In this study, we develop a hyper-resolution forcing dataset from coarser resolution products using a physically based downscaling approach. These downscaling techniques rely on correlations with landscape variables, such as topography, roughness, and land cover. A proof-of-concept has been implemented over the Oklahoma domain, where high-resolution observations are available for validation purposes. Hourly NLDAS (North America Land Data Assimilation System) forcing data (i.e., near-surface air temperature, pressure, and humidity) have been downscaled to 500m resolution over the study area for 2015-present. Results show that correlation coefficients between the downscaled temperature dataset and ground observations are consistently higher than the ones between the NLDAS temperature data at their native resolution and ground observations. Not only correlation coefficients are higher, but also the deviation around the 1:1 line in the density scatterplots is smaller for the downscaled dataset than the original one with respect to the ground observations. Results are therefore encouraging as they demonstrate that the 500m temperature dataset has a good agreement with the ground information and can be adopted to force the land surface model for soil moisture estimation. The study has been expanded to wind speed and direction, incident longwave and shortwave radiation, pressure, and precipitation. Precipitation is well known to vary dramatically with elevation and orography. Therefore, we are pursuing a downscaling technique based on both topographical and vegetation

  3. A shallow subsurface controlled release facility in Bozeman, Montana, USA, for testing near surface CO2 detection techniques and transport models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spangler, Lee H.; Dobeck, Laura M.; Repasky, Kevin S.; Nehrir, Amin R.; Humphries, Seth D.; Barr, Jamie L.; Keith, Charlie J.; Shaw, Joseph A.; Rouse, Joshua H.; Cunningham, Alfred B.; Benson, Sally M.; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Lewicki, Jennifer L.; Wells, Arthur W.; Diehl, J. R.; Strazisar, Brian; Fessenden, Julianna; Rahn, Thom A.; Amonette, James E.; Barr, Jonathan L.; Pickles, William L.; Jacobson, James D.; Silver, Eli A.; Male, Erin J.; Rauch, Henry W.; Gullickson, Kadie; Trautz, Robert; Kharaka, Yousif; Birkholzer, Jens; Wielopolski, Lucien

    2010-03-01

    A facility has been constructed to perform controlled shallow releases of CO2 at flow rates that challenge near surface detection techniques and can be scalable to desired retention rates of large scale CO2 storage projects. Preinjection measurements were made to determine background conditions and characterize natural variability at the site. Modeling of CO2 transport and concentration in saturated soil and the vadose zone was also performed to inform decisions about CO2 release rates and sampling strategies. Four releases of CO2 were carried out over the summer field seasons of 2007 and 2008. Transport of CO2 through soil, water, plants, and air was studied using near surface detection techniques. Soil CO2 flux, soil gas concentration, total carbon in soil, water chemistry, plant health, net CO2 flux, atmospheric CO2 concentration, movement of tracers, and stable isotope ratios were among the quantities measured. Even at relatively low fluxes, most techniques were able to detect elevated levels of CO2 in the soil, atmosphere, or water. Plant stress induced by CO2 was detectable above natural seasonal variations.

  4. Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkindon, D.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.; Rae, J.

    1985-01-01

    This report reviews work carried out between January 1983 and December 1984 for the CEC/DOE contract 'Mathematical Modelling of Fracture Hydrology' which forms part of the CEC Mirage project (CEC 1984. Come 1985. Bourke et. al. 1983). It describes the development and use of a variety of mathematical models for the flow of water and transport of radionuclides in flowing groundwater. These models have an important role to play in assessing the long-term safety of radioactive waste burial, and in the planning and interpretation of associated experiments. The work is reported under five headings, namely 1) Statistical fracture network modelling, 2) Continuum models of flow and transport, 3) Simplified models, 4) Analysis of laboratory experiments, 5) Analysis of field experiments

  5. Modelling for Near-Surface Transport Dynamics of Hydrogen of Plasma Facing Materials by use of Cellular Automaton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimura, K.; Terai, T.; Yamawaki, M.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, the kinetics of desorption of adsorbed hydrogen from an ideal metallic surface is modelled in Cellular Automaton (CA). The modelling is achieved by downgrading the surface to one dimension. The model consists of two parts that are surface migration and desorption. The former is attained by randomly sorting the particles at each time, the latter is realised by modelling the thermally-activated process. For the verification of this model, thermal desorption is simulated then the comparison with the chemical kinetics is carried out. Excellent agreement is observed from the result. The results show that this model is reasonable to express the recombinative desorption of two chemisorbed adatoms. Though, the application of this model is limited to the second-order reaction case. But it can be believed that the groundwork of modelling the transport dynamics of hydrogen through the surface under complex conditions is established

  6. Stochastic and deterministic models to evaluate the critical distance of a near surface repository for the disposal of intermediate and low level radioactive wastes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, A.S.M., E-mail: asergi@eletronuclear.gov.br [Eletrobrás Termonuclear – Eletronuclear S.A. , Rua da Candelária 65, 7° andar, GSN.T, 20091-906 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e, E-mail: frutuoso@nuclear.ufrj.br [Graduate Program of Nuclear Engineering, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Av. Horácio Macedo 2030, Bloco G, sala 206, 21941-914 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Passos, E.M., E-mail: epassos@eletronuclear.gov.br [Eletrobrás Termonuclear – Eletronuclear S.A. , Rua da Candelária 65, 7° andar, GSN.T, 20091-906 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Fontes, G.S., E-mail: gsfontes@hotmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia – IME, Praça General Tibúrcio 80, 22290-270 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • The water infiltration scenario is evaluated for a near surface repository. • The main objective is the determination of the critical distance of the repository. • The column liquid height in the repository is governed by an Ito stochastic equation. • Practical results are obtained for the Abadia de Goiás repository in Brazil. - Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present the stochastic and deterministic models developed for the evaluation of the critical distance of a near surface repository for the disposal of intermediate (ILW) and low level (LLW) radioactive wastes. The critical distance of a repository is defined as the distance between the repository and a well in which the water activity concentration is able to cause a radiological dose to a member of the public equal to the dose limit set by the regulatory body. The mathematical models are developed based on the Richards equation for the liquid flow in the porous media and on the solute transport equation in this medium. The release of radioactive material from the repository to the environment is considered through its base and its flow is determined by Darcy's Law. The deterministic model is obtained from the stochastic approach by neglecting the influence of the Gaussian white noise on the rainfall and the equations are solved analytically with the help of conventional calculus (non-stochastic calculus). The equations of the stochastic model are solved analytically based on the Ito stochastic calculus and numerically by using the Euler–Maruyama method. The impact on the value of the critical distance of the Abadia de Goiás repository is analyzed, taken as a study case, when the deterministic methodology is replaced by the stochastic one, considered more appropriate for modeling rainfall as a stochastic process.

  7. Modeling of Ground Deformation and Shallow Surface Waves Generated by Martian Dust Devils and Perspectives for Near-Surface Structure Inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenda, Balthasar; Lognonné, Philippe; Spiga, Aymeric; Kawamura, Taichi; Kedar, Sharon; Banerdt, William Bruce; Lorenz, Ralph; Banfield, Don; Golombek, Matthew

    2017-10-01

    We investigated the possible seismic signatures of dust devils on Mars, both at long and short period, based on the analysis of Earth data and on forward modeling for Mars. Seismic and meteorological data collected in the Mojave Desert, California, recorded the signals generated by dust devils. In the 10-100 s band, the quasi-static surface deformation triggered by pressure fluctuations resulted in detectable ground-tilt effects: these are in good agreement with our modeling based on Sorrells' theory. In addition, high-frequency records also exhibit a significant excitation in correspondence to dust devil episodes. Besides wind noise, this signal includes shallow surface waves due to the atmosphere-surface coupling and is used for a preliminary inversion of the near-surface S-wave profile down to 50 m depth. In the case of Mars, we modeled the long-period signals generated by the pressure field resulting from turbulence-resolving Large-Eddy Simulations. For typical dust-devil-like vortices with pressure drops of a couple Pascals, the corresponding horizontal acceleration is of a few nm/s2 for rocky subsurface models and reaches 10-20 nm/s2 for weak regolith models. In both cases, this signal can be detected by the Very-Broad Band seismometers of the InSight/SEIS experiment up to a distance of a few hundred meters from the vortex, the amplitude of the signal decreasing as the inverse of the distance. Atmospheric vortices are thus expected to be detected at the InSight landing site; the analysis of their seismic and atmospheric signals could lead to additional constraints on the near-surface structure, more precisely on the ground compliance and possibly on the seismic velocities.

  8. Analysis of nitrate in near-surface aquifers in the midcontinental United States: An application of the inverse hyperbolic sine Tobit model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Steven T.; Liu, Shiping; Kolpin, Dana W.

    1996-01-01

    A nonnormal and heteroscedastic Tobit model is used to determine the primary factors that affect nitrate concentrations in near-surface aquifers, using data from the U.S. Geological Survey collected in 1991. Both normality and homoscedasticity of errors are rejected, justifying the use of a nonnormal and heteroscedastic model. The following factors are found to have significant impacts on nitrate concentrations in groundwater: well screen interval, depth to top of aquifers, percentages of urban residential, forest land, and pasture within 3.2 km, dissolved oxygen concentration level, and presence of a chemical facility and feedlot. The effects of explanatory variables on nitrate concentration are explored further by calculating elasticities. Dissolved oxygen concentration level has more notable effects on nitrate concentrations in groundwater than other variables.

  9. Modeling Subsurface Hydrology in Floodplains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Cristina M.; Dritschel, David G.; Singer, Michael B.

    2018-03-01

    Soil-moisture patterns in floodplains are highly dynamic, owing to the complex relationships between soil properties, climatic conditions at the surface, and the position of the water table. Given this complexity, along with climate change scenarios in many regions, there is a need for a model to investigate the implications of different conditions on water availability to riparian vegetation. We present a model, HaughFlow, which is able to predict coupled water movement in the vadose and phreatic zones of hydraulically connected floodplains. Model output was calibrated and evaluated at six sites in Australia to identify key patterns in subsurface hydrology. This study identifies the importance of the capillary fringe in vadose zone hydrology due to its water storage capacity and creation of conductive pathways. Following peaks in water table elevation, water can be stored in the capillary fringe for up to months (depending on the soil properties). This water can provide a critical resource for vegetation that is unable to access the water table. When water table peaks coincide with heavy rainfall events, the capillary fringe can support saturation of the entire soil profile. HaughFlow is used to investigate the water availability to riparian vegetation, producing daily output of water content in the soil over decadal time periods within different depth ranges. These outputs can be summarized to support scientific investigations of plant-water relations, as well as in management applications.

  10. Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA

    2014-07-27

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

  11. Safety assessment of near surface radioactive waste disposal facilities: Model intercomparison using simple hypothetical data (Test Case 1). First report of NSARS. Part of the co-ordinated research programme on the safety assessment of near surface radioactive waste disposal facilities (NSARS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    In many countries near surface disposal is the preferred option for the comparatively large volumes of low and intermediate level wastes which arise during nuclear power plant operations, nuclear fuel reprocessing and also for the wastes arising from radionuclide applications in hospitals and research establishments. Near surface disposal is also widely practised in the case of hazardous wastes from chemical industries. It is obviously necessary to show that waste disposal methods are safe and that both man and the environment will be adequately protected. Following a previous related Co-ordinated Research Programme (CRP) on ''Migration and Biological Transfer of Radionuclides from Shallow Land Burial'' during 1985 to 1989 (IAEA-TECDOC-579, Vienna, 1990), the issue of reliability of safety assessments was identified as an important topic for further support and development. A new CRP was formulated with the acronym NSARS (Near Surface Radioactive Waste Disposal Safety Assessment Reliability Study). This technical document is the first report of from the CRP and contains the intercomparison of results of the first test exercise (Test Case 1) on modelling of potential radiation exposures as a result of near surface disposal. Test Case 1 is based on entirely hypothetical data and includes consideration of exposures due to leaching and as a result of human intrusion into the site. Refs, figs and tabs

  12. Safety assessment of near surface radioactive waste disposal facilities: Model intercomparison using simple hypothetical data (Test Case 1). First report of NSARS. Part of the co-ordinated research programme on the safety assessment of near surface radioactive waste disposal facilities (NSARS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-11-01

    In many countries near surface disposal is the preferred option for the comparatively large volumes of low and intermediate level wastes which arise during nuclear power plant operations, nuclear fuel reprocessing and also for the wastes arising from radionuclide applications in hospitals and research establishments. Near surface disposal is also widely practised in the case of hazardous wastes from chemical industries. It is obviously necessary to show that waste disposal methods are safe and that both man and the environment will be adequately protected. Following a previous related Co-ordinated Research Programme (CRP) on ``Migration and Biological Transfer of Radionuclides from Shallow Land Burial`` during 1985 to 1989 (IAEA-TECDOC-579, Vienna, 1990), the issue of reliability of safety assessments was identified as an important topic for further support and development. A new CRP was formulated with the acronym NSARS (Near Surface Radioactive Waste Disposal Safety Assessment Reliability Study). This technical document is the first report of from the CRP and contains the intercomparison of results of the first test exercise (Test Case 1) on modelling of potential radiation exposures as a result of near surface disposal. Test Case 1 is based on entirely hypothetical data and includes consideration of exposures due to leaching and as a result of human intrusion into the site. Refs, figs and tabs.

  13. A mathematical model for the performance assessment of engineering barriers of a typical near surface radioactive waste disposal facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio, Raphaela N.; Rotunno Filho, Otto C. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia. Lab. de Hidrologia e Estudos do Meio Ambiente]. E-mail: otto@hidro.ufrj.br; Ruperti Junior, Nerbe J.; Lavalle Filho, Paulo F. Heilbron [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: nruperti@cnen.gov.br

    2005-07-01

    This work proposes a mathematical model for the performance assessment of a typical radioactive waste disposal facility based on the consideration of a multiple barrier concept. The Generalized Integral Transform Technique is employed to solve the Advection-Dispersion mass transfer equation under the assumption of saturated one-dimensional flow, to obtain solute concentrations at given times and locations within the medium. A test-case is chosen in order to illustrate the performance assessment of several configurations of a multi barrier system adopted for the containment of sand contaminated with Ra-226 within a trench. (author)

  14. A mathematical model for the performance assessment of engineering barriers of a typical near surface radioactive waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonio, Raphaela N.; Rotunno Filho, Otto C.

    2005-01-01

    This work proposes a mathematical model for the performance assessment of a typical radioactive waste disposal facility based on the consideration of a multiple barrier concept. The Generalized Integral Transform Technique is employed to solve the Advection-Dispersion mass transfer equation under the assumption of saturated one-dimensional flow, to obtain solute concentrations at given times and locations within the medium. A test-case is chosen in order to illustrate the performance assessment of several configurations of a multi barrier system adopted for the containment of sand contaminated with Ra-226 within a trench. (author)

  15. Near-surface velocity modeling at Yucca Mountain using borehole and surface records from underground nuclear explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durrani, B.A.

    1996-09-01

    The Department of Energy is investigating Yucca Mountain, Nevada as a potential site for commercial radioactive waste disposal in a mined geologic repository. One critical aspect of site suitability is the tectonic stability of the repository site. The levels of risk from both actual fault displacements in the repository block and ground shaking from nearby earthquakes are being examined. In particular, it is necessary to determine the expected level of ground shaking at the repository depth for large seismic sources such as nearby large earthquakes or underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Earthquakes are expected to cause the largest ground motions at the site, however, only underground nuclear explosion data have been obtained at the repository depth level (about 350m below the ground level) to date. In this study we investigate ground motion from Nevada Test Site underground nuclear explosions recorded at Yucca Mountain to establish a compressional velocity model for the uppermost 350m of the mountain. This model is useful for prediction of repository-level ground motions for potential large nearby earthquakes

  16. Near-surface velocity modeling at Yucca Mountain using borehole and surface records from underground nuclear explosions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durrani, B.A. [Texas Univ., El Paso, TX (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences; Walck, M.C. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1996-09-01

    The Department of Energy is investigating Yucca Mountain, Nevada as a potential site for commercial radioactive waste disposal in a mined geologic repository. One critical aspect of site suitability is the tectonic stability of the repository site. The levels of risk from both actual fault displacements in the repository block and ground shaking from nearby earthquakes are being examined. In particular, it is necessary to determine the expected level of ground shaking at the repository depth for large seismic sources such as nearby large earthquakes or underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Earthquakes are expected to cause the largest ground motions at the site, however, only underground nuclear explosion data have been obtained at the repository depth level (about 350m below the ground level) to date. In this study we investigate ground motion from Nevada Test Site underground nuclear explosions recorded at Yucca Mountain to establish a compressional velocity model for the uppermost 350m of the mountain. This model is useful for prediction of repository-level ground motions for potential large nearby earthquakes.

  17. Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.

    2002-05-01

    South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

  18. Subdivision of Texas watersheds for hydrologic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to present a set of findings and examples for subdivision of watersheds for hydrologic modeling. Three approaches were used to examine the impact of watershed subdivision on modeled hydrologic response: (1) An equal-area...

  19. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  20. A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.

    2006-12-01

    The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

  1. Groundwater monitoring and modelling of the “Vector” site for near-surface radioactive waste disposal in the Chornobyl exclusion zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bugai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Results of purposeful groundwater monitoring and modelling studies are presented, which were carried out in order to better understand groundwater flow patterns from the “Vector” site for near-surface radioactive waste disposal and storage in the Chornobyl exclusion zone towards river network. Both data of observations at local-scale monitoring well network at “Vector” site carried out in 2015 - 2016 and modelling analyses using the regional groundwater flow model of Chornobyl exclusion zone suggest that the groundwater discharge contour for water originating from “Vector” site is Sakhan River, which is the tributary to Pripyat River. The respective groundwater travel time is estimated at 210 - 340 years. The travel times in subsurface for 90Sr, 137Cs, and transuranium radionuclides (Pu isotopes, 241Am are estimated respectively at thousands, tenths of thousands, hundreds of thousands – million of years. These results, as well as presented data of analyses of lithological properties of the geological deposits of the unsaturated zone at “Vector” site, provide evidence for good protection of surface water resources from radioactivity sources (e.g., radioactive wastes to be disposed in the near-sursface facilities at “Vector” site.

  2. Numerical Representation of Wintertime Near-Surface Inversions in the Arctic with a 2.5-km Version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghan, A.; Mariani, Z.; Gascon, G.; Bélair, S.; Milbrandt, J.; Joe, P. I.; Crawford, R.; Melo, S.

    2017-12-01

    Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is implementing a 2.5-km resolution version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model over the Canadian Arctic. Radiosonde observations were used to evaluate the numerical representation of surface-based temperature inversion which is a major feature in the Arctic region. Arctic surface-based inversions are often created by imbalance between radiative cooling processes at surface and warm air advection above. This can have a significant effect on vertical mixing of pollutants and moisture, and ultimately, on cloud formation. It is therefore important to correctly predict the existence of surface inversions along with their characteristics (i.e., intensity and depth). Previous climatological studies showed that the frequency and intensity of surface-based inversions are larger during colder months in the Arctic. Therefore, surface-based inversions were estimated using radiosonde measurements during winter (December 2015 to February 2016) at Iqaluit (Nunavut, Canada). Results show that the inversion intensity can exceed 10 K with depths as large as 1 km. Preliminary evaluation of GEM outputs reveals that the model tends to underestimate the intensity of near-surface inversions, and in some cases, the model failed to predict an inversion. This study presents the factors contributing to this bias including surface temperature and snow cover.

  3. Quantitative assessment of radionuclide retention in the near-surface system at Forsmark. Development of a reactive transport model using Forsmark 1.2 data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi

    2007-12-01

    The main objective of this work is to assess the migration behaviour of selected long-lived radionuclides through the near-surface system of Forsmark, with special focus on the evaluation of the capacity of the Quaternary deposits and sediments for radionuclide retention. The work reported here is based on data and information from Forsmark Site Descriptive Model version 1.2. From the geological point of view, the near-surface systems in the Forsmark area consist of Quaternary deposits and sediments that overlay the granitic bedrock. Glacial till is the more abundant outcropping Quaternary deposit and the remainder is made of clayey deposits. These types of near-surface sediments show distinctive hydraulic and geochemical features. The main reactive mineral in the till deposits, for the time horizons considered in this work, is calcium carbonate together with minor amounts of clay minerals (e.g. illite). The till deposits forms aquifers with relatively high hydraulic conductivities. In contrast, glacial and post-glacial clays are basically composed of illite with low to very low amounts of calcium carbonate, and containing organic matter-rich layers (gyttja), which can promote reducing conditions in the porewaters. All these clays exhibits relatively low hydraulic conductivity values. Five radionuclides have been selected for conceptualization and qualitative evaluation of retention process: U as an actinide, Se as a redox-sensitive radionuclide, Cs as a monovalent cation, Sr as a divalent cation, and I as an anion radionuclide. Overall, radionuclide retention capacity in the surface systems at Forsmark can be provided by sorption on charged surfaces of clays and oxyhydroxides, co-precipitation with sulphates, sulphides, oxyhydroxides and carbonates, and sorption on organic matter. Two-dimensional coupled hydrogeological and reactive solute transport models have been developed to simulate the geochemical behaviour of U, Cs and Sr. These three radionuclides have

  4. Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach

  5. Quantitative assessment of radionuclide retention in the near-surface system at Forsmark. Development of a reactive transport model using Forsmark 1.2 data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi (Amphos XXI Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain))

    2007-12-15

    The main objective of this work is to assess the migration behaviour of selected long-lived radionuclides through the near-surface system of Forsmark, with special focus on the evaluation of the capacity of the Quaternary deposits and sediments for radionuclide retention. The work reported here is based on data and information from Forsmark Site Descriptive Model version 1.2. From the geological point of view, the near-surface systems in the Forsmark area consist of Quaternary deposits and sediments that overlay the granitic bedrock. Glacial till is the more abundant outcropping Quaternary deposit and the remainder is made of clayey deposits. These types of near-surface sediments show distinctive hydraulic and geochemical features. The main reactive mineral in the till deposits, for the time horizons considered in this work, is calcium carbonate together with minor amounts of clay minerals (e.g. illite). The till deposits forms aquifers with relatively high hydraulic conductivities. In contrast, glacial and post-glacial clays are basically composed of illite with low to very low amounts of calcium carbonate, and containing organic matter-rich layers (gyttja), which can promote reducing conditions in the porewaters. All these clays exhibits relatively low hydraulic conductivity values. Five radionuclides have been selected for conceptualization and qualitative evaluation of retention process: U as an actinide, Se as a redox-sensitive radionuclide, Cs as a monovalent cation, Sr as a divalent cation, and I as an anion radionuclide. Overall, radionuclide retention capacity in the surface systems at Forsmark can be provided by sorption on charged surfaces of clays and oxyhydroxides, co-precipitation with sulphates, sulphides, oxyhydroxides and carbonates, and sorption on organic matter. Two-dimensional coupled hydrogeological and reactive solute transport models have been developed to simulate the geochemical behaviour of U, Cs and Sr. These three radionuclides have

  6. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

  7. Evaluation of different methods to model near-surface turbulent fluxes for a mountain glacier in the Cariboo Mountains, BC, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radić, Valentina; Menounos, Brian; Shea, Joseph; Fitzpatrick, Noel; Tessema, Mekdes A.; Déry, Stephen J.

    2017-12-01

    As part of surface energy balance models used to simulate glacier melting, choosing parameterizations to adequately estimate turbulent heat fluxes is extremely challenging. This study aims to evaluate a set of four aerodynamic bulk methods (labeled as C methods), commonly used to estimate turbulent heat fluxes for a sloped glacier surface, and two less commonly used bulk methods developed from katabatic flow models. The C methods differ in their parameterizations of the bulk exchange coefficient that relates the fluxes to the near-surface measurements of mean wind speed, air temperature, and humidity. The methods' performance in simulating 30 min sensible- and latent-heat fluxes is evaluated against the measured fluxes from an open-path eddy-covariance (OPEC) method. The evaluation is performed at a point scale of a mountain glacier, using one-level meteorological and OPEC observations from multi-day periods in the 2010 and 2012 summer seasons. The analysis of the two independent seasons yielded the same key findings, which include the following: first, the bulk method, with or without the commonly used Monin-Obukhov (M-O) stability functions, overestimates the turbulent heat fluxes over the observational period, mainly due to a substantial overestimation of the friction velocity. This overestimation is most pronounced during the katabatic flow conditions, corroborating the previous findings that the M-O theory works poorly in the presence of a low wind speed maximum. Second, the method based on a katabatic flow model (labeled as the KInt method) outperforms any C method in simulating the friction velocity; however, the C methods outperform the KInt method in simulating the sensible-heat fluxes. Third, the best overall performance is given by a hybrid method, which combines the KInt approach with the C method; i.e., it parameterizes eddy viscosity differently than eddy diffusivity. An error analysis reveals that the uncertainties in the measured meteorological

  8. Evaluation of different methods to model near-surface turbulent fluxes for a mountain glacier in the Cariboo Mountains, BC, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Radić

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As part of surface energy balance models used to simulate glacier melting, choosing parameterizations to adequately estimate turbulent heat fluxes is extremely challenging. This study aims to evaluate a set of four aerodynamic bulk methods (labeled as C methods, commonly used to estimate turbulent heat fluxes for a sloped glacier surface, and two less commonly used bulk methods developed from katabatic flow models. The C methods differ in their parameterizations of the bulk exchange coefficient that relates the fluxes to the near-surface measurements of mean wind speed, air temperature, and humidity. The methods' performance in simulating 30 min sensible- and latent-heat fluxes is evaluated against the measured fluxes from an open-path eddy-covariance (OPEC method. The evaluation is performed at a point scale of a mountain glacier, using one-level meteorological and OPEC observations from multi-day periods in the 2010 and 2012 summer seasons. The analysis of the two independent seasons yielded the same key findings, which include the following: first, the bulk method, with or without the commonly used Monin–Obukhov (M–O stability functions, overestimates the turbulent heat fluxes over the observational period, mainly due to a substantial overestimation of the friction velocity. This overestimation is most pronounced during the katabatic flow conditions, corroborating the previous findings that the M–O theory works poorly in the presence of a low wind speed maximum. Second, the method based on a katabatic flow model (labeled as the KInt method outperforms any C method in simulating the friction velocity; however, the C methods outperform the KInt method in simulating the sensible-heat fluxes. Third, the best overall performance is given by a hybrid method, which combines the KInt approach with the C method; i.e., it parameterizes eddy viscosity differently than eddy diffusivity. An error analysis reveals that the uncertainties in

  9. Multi-scale modeling study of the source contributions to near-surface ozone and sulfur oxides levels over California during the ARCTAS-CARB period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huang

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic high surface ozone (O3 levels and the increasing sulfur oxides (SOx = SO2+SO4 ambient concentrations over South Coast (SC and other areas of California (CA are affected by both local emissions and long-range transport. In this paper, multi-scale tracer, full-chemistry and adjoint simulations using the STEM atmospheric chemistry model are conducted to assess the contribution of local emission sourcesto SC O3 and to evaluate the impacts of transported sulfur and local emissions on the SC sulfur budgetduring the ARCTAS-CARB experiment period in 2008. Sensitivity simulations quantify contributions of biogenic and fire emissions to SC O3 levels. California biogenic and fire emissions contribute 3–4 ppb to near-surface O3 over SC, with larger contributions to other regions in CA. During a long-range transport event from Asia starting from 22 June, high SOx levels (up to ~0.7 ppb of SO2 and ~1.3 ppb of SO4 is observed above ~6 km, but they did not affect CA surface air quality. The elevated SOx observed at 1–4 km is estimated to enhance surface SOx over SC by ~0.25 ppb (upper limit on ~24 June. The near-surface SOx levels over SC during the flight week are attributed mostly to local emissions. Two anthropogenic SOx emission inventories (EIs from the California Air Resources Board (CARB and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA are compared and applied in 60 km and 12 km chemical transport simulations, and the results are compared withobservations. The CARB EI shows improvements over the National Emission Inventory (NEI by EPA, but generally underestimates surface SC SOx by about a factor of two. Adjoint sensitivity analysis indicated that SO2 levels at 00:00 UTC (17:00 local time at six SC surface sites were influenced by previous day maritime emissions over the

  10. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  11. Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

    2017-12-01

    The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (text">SM). text">SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of text">SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and text">SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where

  12. Putting hydrological modelling practice to the test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melsen, Lieke Anna

    2017-01-01

    Six steps can be distinguished in the process of hydrological modelling: the perceptual model (deciding on the processes), the conceptual model (deciding on the equations), the procedural model (get the code to run on a computer), calibration (identify the parameters), evaluation (confronting

  13. Detailed Geological Modelling in Urban Areas focused on Structures relevant to the Near Surface Groundwater Flow in the context of Climatic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, T.; Pallesen, T. M.; Jensen, N. P.; Mielby, S.; Sandersen, P.; Kristensen, M.

    2015-12-01

    This case demonstrates a practical example from the city of Odense (DK) where new geological modeling techniques has been developed and used in the software GeoScene3D, to create a detailed voxel model of the anthropogenic layer. The voxel model has been combined with a regional hydrostratigraphic layer model. The case is part of a pilot project partly financed by VTU (Foundation for Development of Technology in the Danish Water Sector) and involves many different datatypes such as borehole information, geophysical data, human related elements (landfill, pipelines, basements, roadbeds etc). In the last few years, there has been increased focus on detailed geological modeling in urban areas. The models serve as important input to hydrological models. This focus is partly due to climate changes as high intensity rainfalls are seen more often than in the past, and water recharge is a topic too. In urban areas, this arises new challenges. There is a need of a high level of detailed geological knowledge for the uppermost zone of the soil, which typically are problematic due to practically limitations, especially when using geological layer models. Furthermore, to accommodate the need of a high detail, all relevant available data has to be used in the modeling process. Human activity has deeply changed the soil layers, e.g. by constructions as roadbeds, buildings with basements, pipelines, landfill etc. These elements can act as barriers or pathways regarding surface near groundwater flow and can attribute to local flooding or mobilization and transport of contaminants etc. A geological voxel model is built by small boxes (a voxel). Each box can contain several parameters, ex. lithology, transmissivity or contaminant concentration. Human related elements can be implemented using tools, which gives the modeler advanced options for making detailed small-scale models. This case demonstrates the workflow and the resulting geological model for the pilot area.

  14. Hydrologic modeling of the Columbia Plateau basalts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, F.H.; Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.; Zimmerman, D.A.

    1982-09-01

    The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) directed the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program to conduct a technology demonstration of current performance assessment techniques for the Department of Energy (DOE) as applied to a nuclear waste repository in the Columbia Plateau Basalts. Hypothetical repository coordinates were selected for an actual geographical setting on the Hanford Reservation in the state of Washington. Published hydrologic and geologic data used in the analyses were gathered in 1979 or earlier. The hydrologic simulation was divided into three major parts: (1) aquifer recharge calculations, (2) a regional hydrologic model, and (3) a local hydrologic model of the Pasco Basin. The presentation discusses the regional model. An estimate of the amount of water transmitted through the groundwater system was required to bound the transmissivity values and to estimate the transmissivity distributions for the deeper basalts. The multiple layer two-dimensional Variable Thickness Transient (VTT) code was selected as appropriate for the amount of data available and for the conditions existing in the regional systems. This model uses a finite difference formulation to represent the partial differential flow equation. The regional study area as defined for the VTT model was divided into 55 by 55 square pattern with each grid 5 kilometers on a side. The regional system was modeled as a held potential surface layer and two underlying basalt layers. The regional model established the boundary conditions for the hydrologic model the Pasco Basin

  15. Coil response inversion for very early time modelling of helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic data and mapping of near-surface geological layers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schamper, Cyril Noel Clarence; Auken, Esben; Sørensen, Kurt Ingvard K.I.

    2014-01-01

    Very early times in the order of 2-3 μs from the end of the turn-off ramp for time-domain electromagnetic systems are crucial for obtaining a detailed resolution of the near-surface geology in the depth interval 0-20 m. For transient electromagnetic systems working in the off time, an electric cu...... resolution of shallow geological layers in the depth interval 0-20 m. This is proved by comparing results from the airborne electromagnetic survey to more than 100 km of Electrical Resistivity Tomography measured with 5 m electrode spacing.......Very early times in the order of 2-3 μs from the end of the turn-off ramp for time-domain electromagnetic systems are crucial for obtaining a detailed resolution of the near-surface geology in the depth interval 0-20 m. For transient electromagnetic systems working in the off time, an electric...

  16. Heater test planning for the Near Surface Test Facility at the Hanford reservation. Volume II. Appendix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuBois, A.; Binnall, E.; Chan, T.; McEvoy, M.; Nelson, P.; Remer, J.

    1979-04-01

    Volume II contains the following information: theoretical support for radioactive waste storage projects - development of data analysis methods and numerical models; injectivity temperature profiling as a means of permeability characterization; geophysical holes at the Near Surface Test Facility (NSTF), Hanford; proposed geophysical and hydrological measurements at NSTF; suggestions for characterization of the discontinuity system at NSTF; monitoring rock property changes caused by radioactive waste storage using the electrical resistivity method; microseismic detection system for heated rock; Pasco Basin groundwater contamination study; a letter to Mark Board on Gable Mountain Faulting; report on hydrofracturing tests for in-situ stress measurement, NSTF, Hole DC-11, Hanford Reservation; and borehole instrumentation layout for Hanford Near Surface Test Facility

  17. Test case for a near-surface repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.; Jones, C.; Nilsson, L.B.; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M.

    1998-01-01

    A test case is presented for assessment of a near-surface disposal facility for radioactive waste. The case includes waste characterization and repository design, requirements and constraints in an assessment context, scenario development, model description and test calculations

  18. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

  19. Hydrological model in STEALTH 2-D code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, R.; Hofmann, R.

    1979-10-01

    Porous media fluid flow logic has been added to the two-dimensional version of the STEALTH explicit finite-difference code. It is a first-order hydrological model based upon Darcy's Law. Anisotropic permeability can be prescribed through x and y directional permeabilities. The fluid flow equations are formulated for either two-dimensional translation symmetry or two-dimensional axial symmetry. The addition of the hydrological model to STEALTH is a first step toward analyzing a physical system's response to the coupling of thermal, mechanical, and fluid flow phenomena

  20. Near-Surface Engineered Environmental Barrier Integrity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S.J.; Breckenridge, R.P.

    2002-01-01

    The INEEL Environmental Systems Research and Analysis (ESRA) program has launched a new R and D project on Near-Surface Engineered Environmental Barrier Integrity to increase knowledge and capabilities for using engineering and ecological components to improve the integrity of near-surface barriers used to confine contaminants from the public and the environment. The knowledge gained and the capabilities built will help verify the adequacy of past remedial decisions and enable improved solutions for future cleanup decisions. The research is planned to (a) improve the knowledge of degradation mechanisms (weathering, biological, geological, chemical, radiological, and catastrophic) in times shorter than service life, (b) improve modeling of barrier degradation dynamics, (c) develop sensor systems to identify degradation prior to failure, and (d) provide a better basis for developing and testing of new barrier systems to increase reliability and reduce the risk of failure. Our project combine s selected exploratory studies (benchtop and field scale), coupled effects accelerated aging testing and the meso-scale, testing of new monitoring concepts, and modeling of dynamic systems. The performance of evapo-transpiration, capillary, and grout-based barriers will be examined

  1. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  2. Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberstein, Richard P.

    2014-05-01

    As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

  3. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed......., because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail...

  4. Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghada Machtoub

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration ofwater vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

  5. Hydrological Modelling the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenas, M. C.; Duque, N.; Arboleda, P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological distributed modeling is key point for a comprehensive assessment of the feedback between the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions and land use. Such modeling results are markedly relevant in the fields of water resources management, natural hazards and oil and gas industry. Here, we employ TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) for the hydrological modeling of an area in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia. This study is located over the intertropical convergence zone and is characterized by special meteorological conditions, with fast water fluxes over the year. It has been subject to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economical activities, i.e., and agriculture, energy and oil & gas production. The model employees a record of 12 years of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data as inputs. Streamflow data monitored across the same time frame are used for model calibration. The latter is performed by considering data from 2000 to 2008. Model validation then relies on observations from 2009 to 2012. The robustness of our analyses is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (values of this metric being 0.62 and 0.53, respectively for model calibration and validation). Our results reveal high water storage capacity in the soil, and a marked subsurface runoff, consistent with the characteristics of the soil types in the regions. A significant influence on runoff response of the basin to topographical factors represented in the model is evidenced. Our calibrated model provides relevant indications about recharge in the region, which is important to quantify the interaction between surface water and groundwater, specially during the dry season, which is more relevant in climate-change and climate-variability scenarios.

  6. Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.

  7. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  8. Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model parameters via linearized calibration method in the upstream of Huaihe River Basin, China. ... is presented, based on the analysis of the problems of the objective function of the ...

  9. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gorgan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  10. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M

    2008-01-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  11. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    of two papers where the stochastic differential equation based model is used for sewer runoff from a drainage system. A simple model is used to describe a complex rainfall-runoff process in a catchment, but the stochastic part of the system is formulated to include the increasing uncertainty when...... rainwater flows through the system, as well as describe the lower limit of the uncertainty when the flow approaches zero. The first paper demonstrates in detail the grey box model and all related transformations required to obtain a feasible model for the sewer runoff. In the last paper this model is used......The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...

  12. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  13. An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

    2015-01-01

    The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

  14. A Smallholder Socio-hydrological Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, S.; Savenije, H.; Rathore, P.

    2014-12-01

    Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. They often have low productivity and thus remain at subsistence level. A fact that nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, who merely own a third of total farmlands and belong to the poorest quartile, but produce nearly 40% of countries foodgrains underlines the importance of understanding the socio-hydrology of a small holder. We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. It allows us to study sustainability of small holder farming systems under various settings. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of small holders in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydroclimatic variability. This presentation discusses two aspects in particular: whether government interventions to absolve the debt of farmers is enough and what is the value of investing in local storages that can buffer intra-annual variability in rainfall and strengthening the safety-nets either by creating opportunities for alternative sources of income or by crop diversification.

  15. Physical models for classroom teaching in hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rodhe

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Hydrology teaching benefits from the fact that many important processes can be illustrated and explained with simple physical models. A set of mobile physical models has been developed and used during many years of lecturing at basic university level teaching in hydrology. One model, with which many phenomena can be demonstrated, consists of a 1.0-m-long plexiglass container containing an about 0.25-m-deep open sand aquifer through which water is circulated. The model can be used for showing the groundwater table and its influence on the water content in the unsaturated zone and for quantitative determination of hydraulic properties such as the storage coefficient and the saturated hydraulic conductivity. It is also well suited for discussions on the runoff process and the significance of recharge and discharge areas for groundwater. The flow paths of water and contaminant dispersion can be illustrated in tracer experiments using fluorescent or colour dye. This and a few other physical models, with suggested demonstrations and experiments, are described in this article. The finding from using models in classroom teaching is that it creates curiosity among the students, promotes discussions and most likely deepens the understanding of the basic processes.

  16. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  17. Quantifying Uncertainty in Near Surface Electromagnetic Imaging Using Bayesian Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blatter, D. B.; Ray, A.; Key, K.

    2017-12-01

    Geoscientists commonly use electromagnetic methods to image the Earth's near surface. Field measurements of EM fields are made (often with the aid an artificial EM source) and then used to infer near surface electrical conductivity via a process known as inversion. In geophysics, the standard inversion tool kit is robust and can provide an estimate of the Earth's near surface conductivity that is both geologically reasonable and compatible with the measured field data. However, standard inverse methods struggle to provide a sense of the uncertainty in the estimate they provide. This is because the task of finding an Earth model that explains the data to within measurement error is non-unique - that is, there are many, many such models; but the standard methods provide only one "answer." An alternative method, known as Bayesian inversion, seeks to explore the full range of Earth model parameters that can adequately explain the measured data, rather than attempting to find a single, "ideal" model. Bayesian inverse methods can therefore provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty inherent in trying to infer near surface conductivity from noisy, measured field data. This study applies a Bayesian inverse method (called trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo) to transient airborne EM data previously collected over Taylor Valley - one of the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica. Our results confirm the reasonableness of previous estimates (made using standard methods) of near surface conductivity beneath Taylor Valley. In addition, we demonstrate quantitatively the uncertainty associated with those estimates. We demonstrate that Bayesian inverse methods can provide quantitative uncertainty to estimates of near surface conductivity.

  18. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

    2018-01-01

    Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

  19. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

    2015-01-01

    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  20. ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.

    2018-05-01

    Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.

  1. Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a continuous distributed hydrological model: impacts on the hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Campo, Lorenzo; Cenci, Luca; Silvestro, Francesco; Delogu, Fabio; Boni, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce in-situ data. This work investigates the impact of the assimilation of different remote sensing products on the hydrological cycle by using a continuous physically based distributed hydrological model. Three soil moisture products derived by ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) are used to update the model state variables. The satellite-derived products are assimilated into the hydrological model using different assimilation techniques: a simple nudging and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Moreover two assimilation strategies are evaluated to assess the impact of assimilating the satellite products at model spatial resolution or at the satellite scale. The experiments are carried out for three Italian catchments on multi year period. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST, evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics are tested and discussed.

  2. Test case for a near-surface repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, M.; Jones, C. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Nilsson, L.B. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Co, Stockholm (Sweden); Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1998-09-01

    A test case is presented for assessment of a near-surface disposal facility for radioactive waste. The case includes waste characterization and repository design, requirements and constraints in an assessment context, scenario development, model description and test calculations 6 refs, 12 tabs, 16 figs

  3. Calibration of hydrological model with programme PEST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brilly, Mitja; Vidmar, Andrej; Kryžanowski, Andrej; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

    2016-04-01

    PEST is tool based on minimization of an objective function related to the root mean square error between the model output and the measurement. We use "singular value decomposition", section of the PEST control file, and Tikhonov regularization method for successfully estimation of model parameters. The PEST sometimes failed if inverse problems were ill-posed, but (SVD) ensures that PEST maintains numerical stability. The choice of the initial guess for the initial parameter values is an important issue in the PEST and need expert knowledge. The flexible nature of the PEST software and its ability to be applied to whole catchments at once give results of calibration performed extremely well across high number of sub catchments. Use of parallel computing version of PEST called BeoPEST was successfully useful to speed up calibration process. BeoPEST employs smart slaves and point-to-point communications to transfer data between the master and slaves computers. The HBV-light model is a simple multi-tank-type model for simulating precipitation-runoff. It is conceptual balance model of catchment hydrology which simulates discharge using rainfall, temperature and estimates of potential evaporation. Version of HBV-light-CLI allows the user to run HBV-light from the command line. Input and results files are in XML form. This allows to easily connecting it with other applications such as pre and post-processing utilities and PEST itself. The procedure was applied on hydrological model of Savinja catchment (1852 km2) and consists of twenty one sub-catchments. Data are temporary processed on hourly basis.

  4. Hydrological modelling in sandstone rocks watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponížilová, Iva; Unucka, Jan

    2015-04-01

    The contribution is focused on the modelling of surface and subsurface runoff in the Ploučnice basin. The used rainfall-runoff model is HEC-HMS comprising of the method of SCS CN curves and a recession method. The geological subsurface consisting of sandstone is characterised by reduced surface runoff and, on the contrary, it contributes to subsurface runoff. The aim of this paper is comparison of the rate of influence of sandstone on reducing surface runoff. The recession method for subsurface runoff was used to determine the subsurface runoff. The HEC-HMS model allows semi- and fully distributed approaches to schematisation of the watershed and rainfall situations. To determine the volume of runoff the method of SCS CN curves is used, which results depend on hydrological conditions of the soils. The rainfall-runoff model assuming selection of so-called methods of event of the SCS-CN type is used to determine the hydrograph and peak flow rate based on simulation of surface runoff in precipitation exceeding the infiltration capacity of the soil. The recession method is used to solve the baseflow (subsurface) runoff. The method is based on the separation of hydrograph to direct runoff and subsurface or baseflow runoff. The study area for the simulation of runoff using the method of SCS CN curves to determine the hydrological transformation is the Ploučnice basin. The Ploučnice is a hydrologically significant river in the northern part of the Czech Republic, it is a right tributary of the Elbe river with a total basin area of 1.194 km2. The average value of CN curves for the Ploučnice basin is 72. The geological structure of the Ploučnice basin is predominantly formed by Mesozoic sandstone. Despite significant initial loss of rainfall the basin response to the causal rainfall was demonstrated by a rapid rise of the surface runoff from the watershed and reached culmination flow. Basically, only surface runoff occures in the catchment during the initial phase of

  5. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  6. The aerosol distribution in Europe derived with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model: comparison to near surface in situ and sunphotometer measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Matthias

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The aerosol distribution in Europe was simulated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model system version 4.5 for the years 2000 and 2001. The results were compared with daily averages of PM10 measurements taken in the framework of EMEP and with aerosol optical depth (AOD values measured within AERONET. The modelled total aerosol mass is typically about 30–60% lower than the corresponding measurements. However a comparison of the chemical composition of the aerosol revealed a considerably better agreement between the modelled and the measured aerosol components for ammonium, nitrate and sulfate, which are on average only 15–20% underestimated. Sligthly worse agreement was determined for sea salt, that was only avaliable at two sites. The largest discrepancies result from the aerosol mass which was not chemically specified by the measurements. The agreement between measurements and model is better in winter than in summer. The modelled organic aerosol mass is higher in summer than in winter but it is significantly underestimated by the model. This could be one of the main reasons for the discrepancies between measurements and model results. The other is that primary coarse particles are underestimated in the emissions. The probability distribution function of the PM10 measurements follows a log-normal distribution at most sites. The model is only able to reproduce this distribution function at non-coastal low altitude stations. The AOD derived from the model results is 20–70% lower than the values observed within AERONET. This is mainly attributed to the missing aerosol mass in the model. The day-to-day variability of the AOD and the log-normal distribution functions are quite well reproduced by the model. The seasonality on the other hand is underestimated by the model results because better agreement is achieved in winter.

  7. Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Ma, H.-Y.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Bazile, E.; Berg, L. K.; Cheng, A.; Cheruy, F.; Cole, J.; Forbes, R.; Gustafson, W. I.; Huang, M.; Lee, W.-S.; Liu, Y.; Mellul, L.; Merryfield, W. J.; Qian, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Wang, Y.-C.; Xie, S.; Xu, K.-M.; Zhang, C.; Klein, S.; Petch, J.

    2018-03-01

    We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from nine institutes, perform a series of 5 day hindcasts, each initialized from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

  8. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-01-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

  9. The evolution of process-based hydrologic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Samaniego, Luis; Woods, Ross A.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bennett, Katrina E.; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N.; Cai, Xitian; Wood, Andrew W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2017-01-01

    The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this

  10. The aerosol distribution in Europe derived with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model: comparison to near surface in situ and sunphotometer measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Matthias , V.

    2008-01-01

    The aerosol distribution in Europe was simulated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model system version 4.5 for the years 2000 and 2001. The results were compared with daily averages of PM10 measurements taken in the framework of EMEP and with aerosol optical depth (AOD) values measured within AERONET. The modelled total aerosol mass is typically about 30–60% lower than the corresponding measurements. However a comparison of the chemical composition of th...

  11. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  12. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  13. Assessing The Performance of Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knijff, Johan

    The performance of hydrological models is often characterized using the coefficient of efficiency, E. The sensitivity of E to extreme streamflow values, and the difficulty of deciding what value of E should be used as a threshold to identify 'good' models or model parameterizations, have proven to be serious shortcomings of this index. This paper reviews some alternative performance indices that have appeared in the litera- ture. Legates and McCabe (1999) suggested a more generalized form of E, E'(j,B). Here, j is a parameter that controls how much emphasis is put on extreme streamflow values, and B defines a benchmark or 'null hypothesis' against which the results of the model are tested. E'(j,B) was used to evaluate a large number of parameterizations of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, using 6 different combinations of j and B. First, the effect of j and B is explained. Second, it is demonstrated how the index can be used to explicitly test hypotheses about the model and the data. This approach appears to be particularly attractive if the index is used as a likelihood measure within a GLUE-type analysis.

  14. Effects of Initial Drivers and Land Use on WRF Modeling for Near-Surface Fields and Atmospheric Boundary Layer over the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhua Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the simulation performance of mesoscale models in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, two reanalysis initial datasets (NCEP FNL and ERA-Interim and two MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land-use datasets (from 2001 and 2010 are used in WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting modeling. The model can reproduce the variations of 2 m temperature (T2 and 2 m relative humidity (RH2, but T2 is overestimated and RH2 is underestimated in the control experiment. After using the new initial drive and land use data, the simulation precision in T2 is improved by the correction of overestimated net energy flux at surface and the RH2 is improved due to the lower T2 and larger soil moisture. Due to systematic bias in WRF modeling for wind speed, we design another experiment that includes the Jimenez subgrid-scale orography scheme, which reduces the frequency of low wind speed and increases the frequency of high wind speed and that is more consistent with the observation. Meanwhile, the new drive and land-use data lead to lower boundary layer height and influence the potential temperature and wind speed in both the lower atmosphere and the upper layer, while the impact on water vapor mixing ratio is primarily concentrated in the lower atmosphere.

  15. Updating of states in operational hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruland, O.; Kolberg, S.; Engeland, K.; Gragne, A. S.; Liston, G.; Sand, K.; Tøfte, L.; Alfredsen, K.

    2012-04-01

    Operationally the main purpose of hydrological models is to provide runoff forecasts. The quality of the model state and the accuracy of the weather forecast together with the model quality define the runoff forecast quality. Input and model errors accumulate over time and may leave the model in a poor state. Usually model states can be related to observable conditions in the catchment. Updating of these states, knowing their relation to observable catchment conditions, influence directly the forecast quality. Norway is internationally in the forefront in hydropower scheduling both on short and long terms. The inflow forecasts are fundamental to this scheduling. Their quality directly influence the producers profit as they optimize hydropower production to market demand and at the same time minimize spill of water and maximize available hydraulic head. The quality of the inflow forecasts strongly depends on the quality of the models applied and the quality of the information they use. In this project the focus has been to improve the quality of the model states which the forecast is based upon. Runoff and snow storage are two observable quantities that reflect the model state and are used in this project for updating. Generally the methods used can be divided in three groups: The first re-estimates the forcing data in the updating period; the second alters the weights in the forecast ensemble; and the third directly changes the model states. The uncertainty related to the forcing data through the updating period is due to both uncertainty in the actual observation and to how well the gauging stations represent the catchment both in respect to temperatures and precipitation. The project looks at methodologies that automatically re-estimates the forcing data and tests the result against observed response. Model uncertainty is reflected in a joint distribution of model parameters estimated using the Dream algorithm.

  16. From near-surface to root-zone soil moisture using an exponential filter: an assessment of the method based on in-situ observations and model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Albergel

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A long term data acquisition effort of profile soil moisture is under way in southwestern France at 13 automated weather stations. This ground network was developed in order to validate remote sensing and model soil moisture estimates. In this paper, both those in situ observations and a synthetic data set covering continental France are used to test a simple method to retrieve root zone soil moisture from a time series of surface soil moisture information. A recursive exponential filter equation using a time constant, T, is used to compute a soil water index. The Nash and Sutcliff coefficient is used as a criterion to optimise the T parameter for each ground station and for each model pixel of the synthetic data set. In general, the soil water indices derived from the surface soil moisture observations and simulations agree well with the reference root-zone soil moisture. Overall, the results show the potential of the exponential filter equation and of its recursive formulation to derive a soil water index from surface soil moisture estimates. This paper further investigates the correlation of the time scale parameter T with soil properties and climate conditions. While no significant relationship could be determined between T and the main soil properties (clay and sand fractions, bulk density and organic matter content, the modelled spatial variability and the observed inter-annual variability of T suggest that a weak climate effect may exist.

  17. Atmospheric sensitivity to land surface changes: comparing the impact of albedo, roughness, and evaporative resistance on near-surface air temperature using an idealized land model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lague, M. M.; Swann, A. L. S.; Bonan, G. B.

    2017-12-01

    Past studies have demonstrated how changes in vegetation can impact the atmosphere; however, it is often difficult to identify the exact physical pathway through which vegetation changes drive an atmospheric response. Surface properties (such as vegetation color, or height) control surface energy fluxes, which feed back on the atmosphere on both local and global scales by modifying temperatures, cloud cover, and energy gradients. Understanding how land surface properties influence energy fluxes is crucial for improving our understanding of how vegetation change - past, present, and future - impacts the atmosphere, global climate, and people. We explore the sensitivity of the atmosphere to perturbations of three land surface properties - albedo, roughness, and evaporative resistance - using an idealized land model coupled to an Earth System Model. We derive a relationship telling us how large a change in each surface property is required to drive a local 0.1 K change in 2m air temperature. Using this idealized framework, we are able to separate the influence on the atmosphere of each individual surface property. We demonstrate that the impact of each surface property on the atmosphere is spatially variable - that is, a similar change in vegetation can have different climate impacts if made in different locations. This analysis not only improves our understanding of how the land system can influence climate, but also provides us with a set of theoretical limits on the potential climate impact of arbitrary vegetation change (natural or anthropogenic).

  18. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

    1998-01-01

    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  19. Seasonal changes in the European gravity field from GRACE: A comparison with superconducting gravimeters and hydrology model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinderer, Jacques; Andersen, Ole; Lemoine, Frank; Crossley, David; Boy, Jean-Paul

    2006-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the investigation of seasonal changes of the Earth's gravity field from GRACE satellites and the comparison with surface gravity measurements in Europe from the Global Geodynamics Project (GGP) sub-network, as well as with recent hydrology models for continental soil moisture and snow. We used gravity maps in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 21-month duration from April 2002 to December 2003 for various truncation levels of the initial spherical harmonic decomposition of the field. The transfer function between satellite-derived and ground gravity changes due to continental hydrology is studied and we also compute the theoretical ratio of gravity versus radial displacement (in μGal/mm) involved in the hydrological loading process. The 'mean' value (averaged in time and in space over Europe) from hydrologic forward modeling is found to be close to -1.0 μGal/mm and we show that this value can be explained by a strong low degree ( n = 5-6) peak in the hydrology amplitude spectrum. The dominant time-variable signal from GRACE is found to be annual with an amplitude and a phase both of which are in fair agreement with predictions in Europe from recent hydrology models. Initial results suggest that all three data sets (GRACE, hydrology and GGP) respond to annual changes in near-surface water in Europe of a few μGal (at length scales of ˜1000 km) that show a high value in winter and a summer minimum. Despite the limited time span of our analysis and the uncertainties in separating purely local effects from regional ones in superconducting gravimeter data, the calibration and validation aspects of the GRACE data processing based on the annual hydrology cycle in Europe are in progress.

  20. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, John M.

    1977-01-01

    Lists many recent research projects in hydrology, including flow in fractured media, improvements in remote-sensing techniques, effects of urbanization on water resources, and developments in drainage basins. (MLH)

  1. Hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obando G, E.

    1989-01-01

    Isotopical techniques are used in hydrology area for exploration, evaluation and exploration of water investigation. These techniques have been used successfully and are often the best or only means for providing certain hydrogeological parameters

  2. Hydrological modelling of fine sediments in the Odzi River, Zimbabwe

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological modelling of fine sediments in the Odzi River, Zimbabwe. ... An analysis of the model structure and a comparison with the rating curve function ... model validation through split sample and proxy basin comparison was performed.

  3. An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

  4. Insights into lahar deposition processes in the Curah Lengkong (Semeru Volcano, Indonesia) using photogrammetry-based geospatial analysis, near-surface geophysics and CFD modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, C.; Lavigne, F.; Sri Hadmoko, D.; Wassmer, P.

    2018-03-01

    Semeru Volcano is an active stratovolcano located in East Java (Indonesia), where historic lava flows, occasional pyroclastic flows and vulcanian explosions (on average every 5 min to 15 min) generate a stock of material that is remobilized by lahars, mostly occurring during the rainy season between October and March. Every year, several lahars flow down the Curah Lengkong Valley on the South-east flank of the volcano, where numerous lahar studies have been conducted. In the present contribution, the objective was to study the spatial distribution of boulder-size clasts and try to understand how this distribution relates to the valley morphology and to the dynamic and deposition dynamic of lahars. To achieve this objective, the method relies on a combination of (1) aerial photogrammetry-derived geospatial data on boulders' distribution, (2) ground penetrating radar data collected along a 2 km series of transects and (3) a CFD model of flow to analyse the results from the deposits. Results show that <1 m diameter boulders are evenly distributed along the channel, but that lava flow deposits visible at the surface of the river bed and SABO dams increase the concentration of clasts upstream of their position. Lateral input of boulders from collapsing lava-flow deposits can bring outsized clasts in the system that tend to become trapped at one location. Finally, the comparison between the CFD simulation and previous research using video imagery of lahars put the emphasis the fact that there is no direct link between the sedimentary units observed in the field and the flow that deposited them. Both grain size, flow orientation, matrix characteristics can be very different in a deposit for one single flow, even in confined channels like the Curah Lengkong.

  5. Hydrological system dynamics of glaciated Karnali River Basin Nepal Himalaya using J2000 Hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff

  6. Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.

  7. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brutsaert, Wilfried

    2005-08-01

    Water in its different forms has always been a source of wonder, curiosity and practical concern for humans everywhere. Hydrology - An Introduction presents a coherent introduction to the fundamental principles of hydrology, based on the course that Wilfried Brutsaert has taught at Cornell University for the last thirty years. Hydrologic phenomena are dealt with at spatial and temporal scales at which they occur in nature. The physics and mathematics necessary to describe these phenomena are introduced and developed, and readers will require a working knowledge of calculus and basic fluid mechanics. The book will be invaluable as a textbook for entry-level courses in hydrology directed at advanced seniors and graduate students in physical science and engineering. In addition, the book will be more broadly of interest to professional scientists and engineers in hydrology, environmental science, meteorology, agronomy, geology, climatology, oceanology, glaciology and other earth sciences. Emphasis on fundamentals Clarification of the underlying physical processes Applications of fluid mechanics in the natural environment

  8. Near-surface groundwater responses to injection of geothermal wastes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, S.C.

    1984-06-01

    Experiences with injecting geothermal fluids have identified technical problems associated with geothermal waste disposal. This report assesses the feasibility of injection as an alternative for geothermal wastewater disposal and analyzes hydrologic controls governing the upward migration of injected fluids. Injection experiences at several geothermal developments are presented, including: Raft River, Salton Sea, East Mesa, Otake and Hatchobaru in Japan, and Ahuachapan in El Salvador. Hydrogeologic and design/operational factors affecting the success of an injection program are identified. Hydrogeologic factors include subsidence, near-surface effects of injected fluids, and seismicity. Design/operational factors include hydrodynamic breakthrough, condition of the injection system and reservoir maintenance. Existing and potential effects of production/injection on these factors are assessed.

  9. Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, M.P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.

    2011-01-01

    Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding

  10. A model for estimating time-variant rainfall infiltration as a function of antecedent surface moisture and hydrologic soil type

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkening, H. A.; Ragan, R. M.

    1982-01-01

    Recent research indicates that the use of remote sensing techniques for the measurement of near surface soil moisture could be practical in the not too distant future. Other research shows that infiltration rates, especially for average or frequent rainfall events, are extremely sensitive to the proper definition and consideration of the role of the soil moisture at the beginning of the rainfall. Thus, it is important that an easy to use, but theoretically sound, rainfall infiltration model be available if the anticipated remotely sensed soil moisture data is to be optimally utilized for hydrologic simulation. A series of numerical experiments with the Richards' equation for an array of conditions anticipated in watershed hydrology were used to develop functional relationships that describe temporal infiltration rates as a function of soil type and initial moisture conditions.

  11. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of techniques were applied to the HL assessment unit composition in watersheds across the Pacific Northwest to aggregate the hydrologic behavior of the Hydrologic Landscapes from the assessment unit scale to the watershed scale. This non-trivial solution both emphasizes HL classifications within the watershed that provide that majority of moisture surplus/deficit and considers the relative position (upstream vs. downstream) of these HL classifications. A clustering algorithm was applied to the HL-based characterization of assessment units within 185 watersheds to help organize watersheds into nine classes hypothesized to have similar hydrologic behavior. The HL-based classes were used to organize and describe hydrologic behavior information about watershed classes and both predictions and validations were independently performed with regard to the general magnitude of six hydroclimatic signature values. A second cluster analysis was then performed using the independently calculated signature values as similarity metrics, and it was found that the six signature clusters showed substantial overlap in watershed class membership to those in the HL-based classes. One hypothesis set forward from thi

  12. Testing the Structure of Hydrological Models using Genetic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selle, B.; Muttil, N.

    2009-04-01

    Genetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that genetic programming can be used to test the structure hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, genetic programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, water table depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using genetic programming, a simple model of deep percolation was consistently evolved in multiple model runs. This simple and interpretable model confirmed the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that genetic programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

  13. Hydrologi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    Hydro1ogi er den videnskab, der omhand1er jordens vand, dets forekomst, cirku1ation og forde1ing, dets kemiske og fysiske egenskaber samt indvirkning på omgivelserne, herunder dets relation ti1 alt liv på jorden. Således lyder en b1andt mange definitioner på begrebet hydrologi, og som man kan se...

  14. Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.

    2004-01-01

    . Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... µGal or nearly 5 cm equivalent water storage in selected regions. Integrated over all land masses the standard deviation among the annual signal from the four hydrological models are 0.6 µGal equivalent to around 1.4 cm in equivalent water layer thickness. The estimated accuracy of the annual...

  15. Testing the structure of a hydrological model using Genetic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selle, Benny; Muttil, Nitin

    2011-01-01

    SummaryGenetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that Genetic Programming can be used to test the structure of hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, Genetic Programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, watertable depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using Genetic Programming, a simple model of deep percolation was recurrently evolved in multiple Genetic Programming runs. This simple and interpretable model supported the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that Genetic Programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

  16. Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

  17. Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2014-01-01

    A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

  18. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

    2010-09-01

    Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

  19. Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lili Wang; Zhonggen Wang; Jingjie Yu; Yichi Zhang; Suzhen Dang

    2018-01-01

    Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrolo...

  20. Numerical modelling of present and future hydrology at Laxemar- Simpevarp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten

    2011-04-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has performed site investigations at two potential sites for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report presents results of water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. The modelling reported in this document is focused on the near-surface groundwater, i.e. groundwater in Quaternary deposits and shallow rock, and surface water systems, and was performed using the MIKE SHE tool. The main objective of the modelling was to provide input to the radionuclide transport and dose calculations that were carried out as a part of the comparison between the Laxemar and Forsmark sites

  1. Numerical modelling of present and future hydrology at Laxemar- Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden)); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten (Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden))

    2011-04-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has performed site investigations at two potential sites for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report presents results of water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. The modelling reported in this document is focused on the near-surface groundwater, i.e. groundwater in Quaternary deposits and shallow rock, and surface water systems, and was performed using the MIKE SHE tool. The main objective of the modelling was to provide input to the radionuclide transport and dose calculations that were carried out as a part of the comparison between the Laxemar and Forsmark sites

  2. Physics-based simulations of the impacts forest management practices have on hydrologic response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrianne Carr; Keith Loague

    2012-01-01

    The impacts of logging on near-surface hydrologic response at the catchment and watershed scales were examined quantitatively using numerical simulation. The simulations were conducted with the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) for the North Fork of Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Fort Bragg, California. InHM is a comprehensive physics-based...

  3. Publishing and sharing of hydrologic models through WaterHUB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.; Song, C.; Zhao, L.; Kim, J.; Assi, A.

    2011-12-01

    Most hydrologists use hydrologic models to simulate the hydrologic processes to understand hydrologic pathways and fluxes for research, decision making and engineering design. Once these tasks are complete including publication of results, the models generally are not published or made available to the public for further use and improvement. Although publication or sharing of models is not required for journal publications, sharing of models may open doors for new collaborations, and avoids duplication of efforts if other researchers are interested in simulating a particular watershed for which a model already exists. For researchers, who are interested in sharing models, there are limited avenues to publishing their models to the wider community. Towards filling this gap, a prototype cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WaterHUB, is developed for sharing hydrologic data and modeling tools in an interactive environment. To test the utility of WaterHUB for sharing hydrologic models, a system to publish and share SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is developed. Users can utilize WaterHUB to search and download existing SWAT models, and also upload new SWAT models. Metadata such as the name of the watershed, name of the person or agency who developed the model, simulation period, time step, and list of calibrated parameters also published with individual model.

  4. Cyberinfrastructure to Support Collaborative and Reproducible Computational Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodall, J. L.; Castronova, A. M.; Bandaragoda, C.; Morsy, M. M.; Sadler, J. M.; Essawy, B.; Tarboton, D. G.; Malik, T.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.; Liu, Y.; Wang, S. W.

    2017-12-01

    Creating cyberinfrastructure to support reproducibility of computational hydrologic models is an important research challenge. Addressing this challenge requires open and reusable code and data with machine and human readable metadata, organized in ways that allow others to replicate results and verify published findings. Specific digital objects that must be tracked for reproducible computational hydrologic modeling include (1) raw initial datasets, (2) data processing scripts used to clean and organize the data, (3) processed model inputs, (4) model results, and (5) the model code with an itemization of all software dependencies and computational requirements. HydroShare is a cyberinfrastructure under active development designed to help users store, share, and publish digital research products in order to improve reproducibility in computational hydrology, with an architecture supporting hydrologic-specific resource metadata. Researchers can upload data required for modeling, add hydrology-specific metadata to these resources, and use the data directly within HydroShare.org for collaborative modeling using tools like CyberGIS, Sciunit-CLI, and JupyterHub that have been integrated with HydroShare to run models using notebooks, Docker containers, and cloud resources. Current research aims to implement the Structure For Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) hydrologic model within HydroShare to support hypothesis-driven hydrologic modeling while also taking advantage of the HydroShare cyberinfrastructure. The goal of this integration is to create the cyberinfrastructure that supports hypothesis-driven model experimentation, education, and training efforts by lowering barriers to entry, reducing the time spent on informatics technology and software development, and supporting collaborative research within and across research groups.

  5. Landscape-based hydrological modelling : Understanding the influence of climate, topography, and vegetation on catchment hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, H.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, a novel landscape-based hydrological model is presented that was developed and tested in numerous catchments around the world with various landscapes and climate conditions. A landscape is considered to consist of a topography and an ecosystem living on it. Firstly, the influence of

  6. Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Clark, M.P.; Hyman, J.M.; Robinson, B.A.

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled

  7. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

  8. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  9. Siting of near surface disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Radioactive waste is generated from the production of nuclear energy and from the use of radioactive materials in industrial applications, research and medicine. The importance of safe management of radioactive waste for the protection of human health and the environment has long been recognized and considerable experience has been gained in this field. The Radioactive Waste Safety Standards (RADWASS) programme is the IAEA's contribution to establishing and promoting, in a coherent and comprehensive manner, the basic safety philosophy for radioactive waste management and the steps necessary to ensure its implementation. The Safety Standards are supplemented by a number of Safety Guides and Safety Practices. This Safety Guide defines the site selection process and criteria for identifying suitable near surface disposal facilities for low and intermediate level solid wastes. Management of the siting process and data needed to apply the criteria are also specified. 4 refs

  10. Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrological process simulation in an inland river basin in China, Heihe River basin. It is divided into the upper, middle, and lower reaches based on the distinctive hydrological characteristics in the Heihe River basin, and three hydrological models are selected, applied, and tested to simulate the hydrological cycling processes for each reach. The upper reach is the contributing area with the complex runoff generation processes, therefore, the hydrological informatic modeling system (HIMS is utilized due to its combined runoff generation mechanisms. The middle reach has strong impacts of intensive human activities on the interactions of surface and subsurface flows, so a conceptual water balance model is applied to simulate the water balance process. For the lower reach, as the dissipative area with groundwater dominating the hydrological process, a groundwater modeling system with the embedment of MODFLOW model is applied to simulate the groundwater dynamics. Statistical parameters and water balance analysis prove that the three models have excellent performances in simulating the hydrological process of the three reaches. Therefore, it is an effective way to simulate the hydrological process of inland river basin with multiple hydrological models according to the characteristics of each subbasin.

  11. Hillslope hydrological modeling : the role of bedrock geometry and hillslope-stream interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shahedi, K.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: Hillslope hydrology, hydrological modeling, bedrock geometry, boundary condition, numerical solution.

    This thesis focuses on hillslope subsurface flow as a dominant control on the hydrological processes defining the catchment response to rainfall. Due to the difficulties

  12. Coupling Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Models to Estimate PMF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, G.; Weingartner, R.

    2015-12-01

    Most sophisticated probable maximum flood (PMF) estimations derive the PMF from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by applying deterministic hydrologic models calibrated with observed data. This method is based on the assumption that the hydrological system is stationary, meaning that the system behaviour during the calibration period or the calibration event is presumed to be the same as it is during the PMF. However, as soon as a catchment-specific threshold is reached, the system is no longer stationary. At or beyond this threshold, retention areas, new flow paths, and changing runoff processes can strongly affect downstream peak discharge. These effects can be accounted for by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models, a technique that is particularly promising when the expected peak discharge may considerably exceed the observed maximum discharge. In such cases, the coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models has the potential to significantly increase the physical plausibility of PMF estimations. This procedure ensures both that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit based on riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered. Our study discusses the prospect of considering retention effects on PMF estimations by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. This method is tested by forcing PREVAH, a semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model, with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to externally force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). Finally, the PMF estimation results obtained using the coupled modelling approach are compared to the results obtained using ordinary hydrologic modelling.

  13. airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

  14. Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-04-01

    An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent

  15. A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

  16. The relation between geometry, hydrology and stability of complex hillslopes examined using low-dimensional hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talebi, A.

    2008-01-01

    Key words: Hillslope geometry, Hillslope hydrology, Hillslope stability, Complex hillslopes, Modeling shallow landslides, HSB model, HSB-SM model.

    The hydrologic response of a hillslope to rainfall involves a complex, transient saturated-unsaturated interaction that usually leads to a

  17. Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

    2008-12-01

    A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

  18. Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

  19. “Black Swans” of Hydrology: Can our Models Address the Science of Hydrologic Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.

    2009-12-01

    Coupled models of terrestrial hydrology and climate have grown in complexity leading to better understanding of the coupling between the hydrosphere, biosphere, and the climate system. During the past two decades, these models have evolved through generational changes as they have grown in sophistication in their ability to resolve spatial heterogeneity as well as vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry. These developments have, in part, been driven by data collection efforts ranging from focused field campaigns to long-term observational networks, advances in remote sensing and other measurement technologies, along with sophisticated estimation and assimilation methods. However, the hydrologic cycle is changing leading to unexpected and unanticipated behavior through emergent dynamics and patterns that are not part of the historical milieu. Is there a new thinking that is needed to address this challenge? The goal of this talk is to draw from the modeling developments in the past two decades to foster a debate for moving forward.

  20. Characterization of groundwater flow for near surface disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-02-01

    The main objective of this report is to provide a description of the site investigation techniques and modelling approaches that can be used to characterise the flow of subsurface water at near surface disposal facilities in relation to the various development stages of the repositories. As one of the main goals of defining groundwater flow is to establish the possible contaminant migration, certain aspects related to groundwater transport are also described. Secondary objectives are to discuss the implications of various groundwater conditions with regard to the performance of the isolation systems

  1. Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

  2. Duplex sonography of the near-surface leg veins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza, E.

    2007-01-01

    The book contains the following contributions: The ultrasonograph, selection of the ultrasonic transducer, anatomy of the near-surface vein system, physiology of the near-surface vein system, varicose status classification, systematics of the duplex sonography of near-surface leg veins, provocational maneuver for the duplex sonographic varicose diagnostics, exploration of vena saphena parva, perforans veins, side branches, phlebitis, sonography for varicose therapy, postsurgical sonography, deep leg veins, examination of near-surface leg veins for the pathology of the deep vein system, differential diagnostic clarification of leg oedema from the phlebologic-lymphological view, diagnostic side features along the near-surface leg veins

  3. Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Koziol

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow–subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

  4. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

  5. A distributed eco-hydrological model and its application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zong-xue Xu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Eco-hydrological processes in arid areas are the focus of many hydrological and water resources studies. However, the hydrological cycle and the ecological system have usually been considered separately in most previous studies, and the correlation between the two has not been fully understood. Interdisciplinary research on eco-hydrological processes using multidisciplinary knowledge has been insufficient. In order to quantitatively analyze and evaluate the interaction between the ecosystem and the hydrological cycle, a new kind of eco-hydrological model, the ecology module for a grid-based integrated surface and groundwater model (Eco-GISMOD, is proposed with a two-way coupling approach, which combines the ecological model (EPIC and hydrological model (GISMOD by considering water exchange in the soil layer. Water interaction between different soil layers is simply described through a generalized physical process in various situations. A special method was used to simulate the water exchange between plants and the soil layer, taking into account precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil water replenishment, and root water uptake. In order to evaluate the system performance, the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China was selected for a case study. The results show that forests and crops were generally growing well with sufficient water supply, but water shortages, especially in the summer, inhibited the growth of grass and caused grass degradation. This demonstrates that water requirements and water consumption for different kinds of vegetation can be estimated by considering the water-supply rules of Eco-GISMOD, which will be helpful for the planning and management of water resources in the future.

  6. Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

  7. Finite-element modelling of physics-based hillslope hydrology, Keith Beven, and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loague, Keith; Ebel, Brian A.

    2016-01-01

    Keith Beven is a voice of reason on the intelligent use of models and the subsequent acknowledgement/assessment of the uncertainties associated with environmental simula-tion. With several books and hundreds of papers, Keith’s work is widespread, well known, and highly referenced. Four of Keith’s most notable contributions are the iconic TOPMODEL (Beven and Kirkby, 1979), classic papers on macropores and preferential flow (Beven and Germann, 1982, 2013), two editions of the rainfall-runoff modelling bible (Beven, 2000a, 2012), and the selection/commentary for the first volume from the Benchmark Papers in Hydrology series (Beven, 2006b). Remarkably, the thirty-one papers in his benchmark volume, entitled Streamflow Generation Processes, are not tales of modelling wizardry but describe measurements designed to better understand the dynamics of near-surface systems (quintessential Keith). The impetus for this commentary is Keith’sPhD research (Beven, 1975), where he developed a new finite-element model and conducted concept-development simu-lations based upon the processes identified by, for example, Richards (1931), Horton (1933), Hubbert (1940), Hewlett and Hibbert (1963), and Dunne and Black (1970a,b). Readers not familiar with the different mechanisms of streamflow generation are referred to Dunne (1978).

  8. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  9. Creating Data and Modeling Enabled Hydrology Instruction Using Collaborative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merwade, V.; Rajib, A.; Ruddell, B. L.; Fox, S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrology instruction typically involves teaching of the hydrologic cycle and the processes associated with it such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff generation and hydrograph analysis. With the availability of observed and remotely sensed data related to many hydrologic fluxes, there is an opportunity to use these data for place based learning in hydrology classrooms. However, it is not always easy and possible for an instructor to complement an existing hydrology course with new material that requires both the time and technical expertise, which the instructor may not have. The work presented here describes an effort where students create the data and modeling driven instruction material as a part of their class assignment for a hydrology course at Purdue University. The data driven hydrology education project within Science Education Resources Center (SERC) is used as a platform to publish and share the instruction material so it can be used by future students in the same course or any other course anywhere in the world. Students in the class were divided into groups, and each group was assigned a topic such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, flow duration curve and frequency analysis. Each student in the group was then asked to get data and do some analysis for an area with specific landuse characteristic such as urban, rural and agricultural. The student contribution were then organized into learning units such that someone can do a flow duration curve analysis or flood frequency analysis to see how it changes for rural area versus urban area. The hydrology education project within SERC cyberinfrastructure enables any other instructor to adopt this material as is or through modification to suit his/her place based instruction needs.

  10. Imaging near-surface heterogeneities by natural migration of surface waves

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Zhaolun; AlTheyab, Abdullah; Hanafy, Sherif M.; Schuster, Gerard T.

    2016-01-01

    We demonstrate that near-surface heterogeneities can be imaged by natural migration of backscattered surface waves in common shot gathers. No velocity model is required because the data are migrated onto surface points with the virtual Green

  11. Hydrological Modeling in Alaska with WRF-Hydro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmer, N. J.; Zavodsky, B.; Molthan, A.

    2017-12-01

    The operational National Water Model (NWM), implemented in August 2016, is an instantiation of the Weather Research and Forecasting hydrological extension package (WRF-Hydro). Currently, the NWM only covers the contiguous United States, but will be expanded to include an Alaska domain in the future. It is well known that Alaska presents several hydrological modeling challenges, including unique arctic/sub-arctic hydrological processes not observed elsewhere in the United States and a severe lack of in-situ observations for model initialization. This project sets up an experimental version of WRF-Hydro in Alaska mimicking the NWM to gauge the ability of WRF-Hydro to represent hydrological processes in Alaska and identify model calibration challenges. Recent and upcoming launches of hydrology-focused NASA satellite missions such as the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) expand the spatial and temporal coverage of observations in Alaska, so this study also lays the groundwork for assimilating these NASA datasets into WRF-Hydro in the future.

  12. How to handle spatial heterogeneity in hydrological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loritz, Ralf; Neuper, Malte; Gupta, Hoshin; Zehe, Erwin

    2017-04-01

    The amount of data we observe in our environmental systems is larger than ever. This leads to a new kind of problem where hydrological modelers can have access to large datasets with various quantitative and qualitative observations but are uncertain about the information content with respect to the hydrological functioning of a landscape. For example digital elevation models obviously contain plenty of information about the topography of a landscape; however the question of relevance for Hydrology is how much of this information is important for the hydrological functioning of a landscape. This kind of question is not limited to topography and we can ask similar questions when handling distributed rainfall data or geophysical images. In this study we would like to show how one can separate dominant patterns in the landscape from idiosyncratic system details. We use a 2D numerical hillslope model in combination with an extensive research data set to test a variety of different model setups that are built upon different landscape characteristics and run by different rainfalls measurements. With the help of information theory based measures we can identify and learn how much heterogeneity is really necessary for successful hydrological simulations and how much of it we can neglect.

  13. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2016-01-01

    The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

  14. WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

  15. Use of remote sensing data in distributed hydrological models: applications in the Senegal River basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandholt, Inge; Andersen, Jens Asger; Gybkjær, Gorm

    1999-01-01

    Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she......Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she...

  16. Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

  17. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    water extent of the lake barely covers 11.5 km2. (Badar and Romshoo ... Recent developments of decision support systems based on GIS and distributed hydrological models .... flow of the methodology is given in figure 2. 3.1.1 Model structure ...

  18. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: identification of dominant processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Markstrom

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1 the sensitive input parameters and (2 particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es. Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1. Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1 the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2 the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3 different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4 some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many.

  19. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  20. A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

  1. Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

  2. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  3. Recharge and discharge of near-surface groundwater in Forsmark. Comparison of classification methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Kent [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Johansson, Per-Olof [Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Taeby (Sweden); Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-03-15

    This report presents and compares data and models for identification of near-surface groundwater recharge and discharge (RD) areas in Forsmark. The general principles of groundwater recharge and discharge are demonstrated and applied to interpret hydrological and hydrogeological observations made in the Forsmark area. 'Continuous' RD classification methods considered in the study include topographical modelling, map overlays, and hydrological-hydrogeological flow modelling. 'Discrete' (point) methods include field-based and hydrochemistry-based RD classifications of groundwater monitoring well locations. The topographical RD modelling uses the digital elevation model as the only input. The map overlays use background maps of Quaternary deposits, soils, and ground- and field layers of the vegetation/land use map. Further, the hydrological-hydrogeological modelling is performed using the MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 software packages, taking into account e.g. topography, meteorology, hydrogeology, and geometry of watercourses and lakes. The best between-model agreement is found for the topography-based model and the MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 model. The agreement between the topographical model and the map overlays is less good. The agreement between the map overlays on the one hand, and the MIKE SHE and field-based RD classifications on the other, is thought to be less good, as inferred from the comparison made with the topography-based model. However, much improvement of the map overlays can likely be obtained, e.g. by using 'weights' and calibration (such exercises were outside the scope of the present study). For field-classified 'recharge wells', there is a good agreement to the hydrochemistry-based (Piper plot) well classification, but less good for the field-classified 'discharge wells'. In addition, the concentration of the age-dating parameter tritium shows low variability among recharge wells, but a large spread among discharge

  4. Recharge and discharge of near-surface groundwater in Forsmark. Comparison of classification methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Kent; Johansson, Per-Olof; Brydsten, Lars; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten

    2007-03-01

    This report presents and compares data and models for identification of near-surface groundwater recharge and discharge (RD) areas in Forsmark. The general principles of groundwater recharge and discharge are demonstrated and applied to interpret hydrological and hydrogeological observations made in the Forsmark area. 'Continuous' RD classification methods considered in the study include topographical modelling, map overlays, and hydrological-hydrogeological flow modelling. 'Discrete' (point) methods include field-based and hydrochemistry-based RD classifications of groundwater monitoring well locations. The topographical RD modelling uses the digital elevation model as the only input. The map overlays use background maps of Quaternary deposits, soils, and ground- and field layers of the vegetation/land use map. Further, the hydrological-hydrogeological modelling is performed using the MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 software packages, taking into account e.g. topography, meteorology, hydrogeology, and geometry of watercourses and lakes. The best between-model agreement is found for the topography-based model and the MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 model. The agreement between the topographical model and the map overlays is less good. The agreement between the map overlays on the one hand, and the MIKE SHE and field-based RD classifications on the other, is thought to be less good, as inferred from the comparison made with the topography-based model. However, much improvement of the map overlays can likely be obtained, e.g. by using 'weights' and calibration (such exercises were outside the scope of the present study). For field-classified 'recharge wells', there is a good agreement to the hydrochemistry-based (Piper plot) well classification, but less good for the field-classified 'discharge wells'. In addition, the concentration of the age-dating parameter tritium shows low variability among recharge wells, but a large spread among discharge wells. The usefulness of hydrochemistry-based RD

  5. Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Development Using Simulink

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Bowen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A stormwater runoff model based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS method and a finite-volume based water quality model have been developed to investigate the use of Simulink for use in teaching and research. Simulink, a MATLAB extension, is a graphically based model development environment for system modeling and simulation. Widely used for mechanical and electrical systems, Simulink has had less use for modeling of hydrologic systems. The watershed model is being considered for use in teaching graduate-level courses in hydrology and/or stormwater modeling. Simulink’s block (data process and arrow (data transfer object model, the copy and paste user interface, the large number of existing blocks, and the absence of computer code allows students to become model developers almost immediately. The visual depiction of systems, their component subsystems, and the flow of data through the systems are ideal attributes for hands-on teaching of hydrologic and mass balance processes to today’s computer-savvy visual learners. Model development with Simulink for research purposes is also investigated. A finite volume, multi-layer pond model using the water quality kinetics present in CE-QUAL-W2 has been developed using Simulink. The model is one of the first uses of Simulink for modeling eutrophication dynamics in stratified natural systems. The model structure and a test case are presented. One use of the model for teaching a graduate-level water quality modeling class is also described.

  6. Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  7. Hydrologic modeling and field testing at Yucca mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoxie, D.T.

    1991-01-01

    Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated as a possible site for a mined geologic repository for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste. The repository is proposed to be constructed in fractured, densely welded tuff within the thick (500 to 750 meters) unsaturated zone at the site. Characterization of the site unsaturated-zone hydrogeologic system requires quantitative specification of the existing state of the system and the development of numerical hydrologic models to predict probable evolution of the hydrogeologic system over the lifetime of the repository. To support development of hydrologic models for the system, a testing program has been designed to characterize the existing state of the system, to measure hydrologic properties for the system and to identify and quantify those processes that control system dynamics. 12 refs

  8. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective ? a review

    OpenAIRE

    Overgaard , J.; Rosbjerg , D.; Butts , M. B.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches, because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opport...

  9. Flood Modelling of Banjir Kanal Barat (Integration of Hydrology Model and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Aris Marfai

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological modelling has an advantage on river flood study. Hydrological factors can be easily determined and calculated using hydrological model. HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System software is well known as hydrological modelling software for flood simulation and encroachment analysis of the floodplain area. For spatial performance and analysis of flood, the integration of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS and hydrological model is needed. The aims of this research are 1 to perform a flood encroachment using HEC-RAS software, and 2 to generate a flood hazard map. The methodology for this research omprise of 1 generating geometric data as a requirement of the data input on HEC-RAS hydrological model, 2 Hydrological data inputting, 3 generating of the flood encroachment analysis, and 4 transformation of flood encroachment into flood hazard map. The spatial pattern of the flood hazard is illustrated in a map. The result shows that hydrological model as integration with GIS can be used for flood hazard map generation. This method has advantages on the calculation of the hydrological factors of flood and spatial performance of the flood hazard map. For further analysis, the landuse map can be used on the overlay operation with the flood hazard map in order to obtain the impact of the flood on the landuse.

  10. GLOFRIM v1.0-A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoch, Jannis M.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Baart, Fedor; Van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Bates, Paul D.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  11. Elements of a flexible approach for conceptual hydrological modeling : 1. Motivation and theoretical development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fenicia, F.; Kavetski, D.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a flexible framework for conceptual hydrological modeling, with two related objectives: (1) generalize and systematize the currently fragmented field of conceptual models and (2) provide a robust platform for understanding and modeling hydrological systems. In contrast to

  12. Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.

    2017-12-01

    The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

  13. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  14. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  15. Legacy model integration for enhancing hydrologic interdisciplinary research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, A.; Arabi, M.; David, O.

    2013-12-01

    Many challenges are introduced to interdisciplinary research in and around the hydrologic science community due to advances in computing technology and modeling capabilities in different programming languages, across different platforms and frameworks by researchers in a variety of fields with a variety of experience in computer programming. Many new hydrologic models as well as optimization, parameter estimation, and uncertainty characterization techniques are developed in scripting languages such as Matlab, R, Python, or in newer languages such as Java and the .Net languages, whereas many legacy models have been written in FORTRAN and C, which complicates inter-model communication for two-way feedbacks. However, most hydrologic researchers and industry personnel have little knowledge of the computing technologies that are available to address the model integration process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to address these new challenges by utilizing a novel approach based on a publish-subscribe-type system to enhance modeling capabilities of legacy socio-economic, hydrologic, and ecologic software. Enhancements include massive parallelization of executions and access to legacy model variables at any point during the simulation process by another program without having to compile all the models together into an inseparable 'super-model'. Thus, this study provides two-way feedback mechanisms between multiple different process models that can be written in various programming languages and can run on different machines and operating systems. Additionally, a level of abstraction is given to the model integration process that allows researchers and other technical personnel to perform more detailed and interactive modeling, visualization, optimization, calibration, and uncertainty analysis without requiring deep understanding of inter-process communication. To be compatible, a program must be written in a programming language with bindings to a common

  16. HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Schymanski

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  17. Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, R. Steven; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Norton, Parker A.; Driscoll, Jessica M.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

    2018-01-08

    This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

  18. Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

  19. Sharing hydrological knowledge: an international comparison of hydrological models in the Meuse River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Drogue, Gilles; Brauer, Claudia; Weerts, Albrecht

    2015-04-01

    International collaboration between institutes and universities working and studying the same transboundary basin is needed for consensus building around possible effects of climate change and climate adaptation measures. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration and analysis techniques. Intercomparison could be a first step into consensus modeling or an ensemble based modeling strategy. Besides these practical objectives, such an intercomparison offers the opportunity to explore different ranges of models and learn from each other, hopefully increasing the insight into the hydrological processes that play a role in the transboundary basin. In this experiment, different international research groups applied their rainfall-runoff model in the Ourthe, a Belgium sub-catchment of the Meuse. Data preparation involved the interpolation of hourly precipitation station data collected and owned by the Service Public de Wallonie1 and the freely available E-OBS dataset for daily temperature (Haylock et al., 2008). Daily temperature was disaggregated to hourly values and potential evaporation was derived with the Hargreaves formula. The data was made available to the researchers through an FTP server. The protocol for the modeling involved a split-sample calibration and validation for pre-defined periods. Objective functions for calibration were fixed but the calibration algorithm was a free choice of the research groups. The selection of calibration algorithm was considered model dependent because lumped as well as computationally less efficient distributed models were used. For each model, an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected and several performance metrics enabled to assess the models' abilities to simulate discharge. The aim of this experiment is to identify those model components and structures that increase model performance and may best

  20. Modeling the Hydrologic Processes of a Permeable Pavement System

    Science.gov (United States)

    A permeable pavement system can capture stormwater to reduce runoff volume and flow rate, improve onsite groundwater recharge, and enhance pollutant controls within the site. A new unit process model for evaluating the hydrologic performance of a permeable pavement system has be...

  1. Using Modeling Tools to Better Understand Permafrost Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clément Fabre

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Modification of the hydrological cycle and, subsequently, of other global cycles is expected in Arctic watersheds owing to global change. Future climate scenarios imply widespread permafrost degradation caused by an increase in air temperature, and the expected effect on permafrost hydrology is immense. This study aims at analyzing, and quantifying the daily water transfer in the largest Arctic river system, the Yenisei River in central Siberia, Russia, partially underlain by permafrost. The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step in historical discharge simulations for the 2003–2014 period. The model parameters have been adjusted to embrace the hydrological features of permafrost. SWAT is shown capable to estimate water fluxes at a daily time step, especially during unfrozen periods, once are considered specific climatic and soils conditions adapted to a permafrost watershed. The model simulates average annual contribution to runoff of 263 millimeters per year (mm yr−1 distributed as 152 mm yr−1 (58% of surface runoff, 103 mm yr−1 (39% of lateral flow and 8 mm yr−1 (3% of return flow from the aquifer. These results are integrated on a reduced basin area downstream from large dams and are closer to observations than previous modeling exercises.

  2. Improving Hydrological Models of The Netherlands Using ALOS PALSAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, R.J.; Schuurmans, J.M.; Berendrecht, W.L.; Borren, W.; Ven, T.J.M. van de; Westerhoff, R.S.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the improvement of the hydrological model metaSWAP of The Netherlands, with respect to soil moisture, is studied using remote sensing data. Therefore we investigate the value of ALOS PALSAR data of 2007 in combination with the method of Dubois et al. [1] for measuring volumetric

  3. A Model for Wetland Hydrology: Description and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.S. Mansell; S.A. Bloom; Ge Sun

    2000-01-01

    WETLANDS, a multidimensional model describing water flow in variably saturated soil and evapotranspiration, was used to simulate successfully 3-years of local hydrology for a cypress pond located within a relatively flat Coastal Plain pine forest landscape. Assumptions included negligible net regional groundwater flow and radially symmetric local flow impinging on a...

  4. Green roof hydrologic performance and modeling: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanling; Babcock, Roger W

    2014-01-01

    Green roofs reduce runoff from impervious surfaces in urban development. This paper reviews the technical literature on green roof hydrology. Laboratory experiments and field measurements have shown that green roofs can reduce stormwater runoff volume by 30 to 86%, reduce peak flow rate by 22 to 93% and delay the peak flow by 0 to 30 min and thereby decrease pollution, flooding and erosion during precipitation events. However, the effectiveness can vary substantially due to design characteristics making performance predictions difficult. Evaluation of the most recently published study findings indicates that the major factors affecting green roof hydrology are precipitation volume, precipitation dynamics, antecedent conditions, growth medium, plant species, and roof slope. This paper also evaluates the computer models commonly used to simulate hydrologic processes for green roofs, including stormwater management model, soil water atmosphere and plant, SWMS-2D, HYDRUS, and other models that are shown to be effective for predicting precipitation response and economic benefits. The review findings indicate that green roofs are effective for reduction of runoff volume and peak flow, and delay of peak flow, however, no tool or model is available to predict expected performance for any given anticipated system based on design parameters that directly affect green roof hydrology.

  5. Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torres Matallana, Arturo; Leopold, U.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty is often ignored in urban hydrology modelling. Engineering practice typically ignores uncertainties and uncertainty propagation. This can have large impacts, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems and the inaccurate estimation of pollution in the environment caused

  6. Hydrological modeling using a multi-site stochastic weather generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather data is usually required at several locations over a large watershed, especially when using distributed models for hydrological simulations. In many applications, spatially correlated weather data can be provided by a multi-site stochastic weather generator which considers the spatial correl...

  7. Application of hydropedological insights in hydrological modelling of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper the output of a digital soil mapping exercise was used as the soil input into a distributed hydrological model (ACRU) for a test site within the Stevenson-Hamilton Research Supersite, Kruger National Park (South ... The outputs evaluated included both streamflow and soil water content at selected soil profiles.

  8. Evaluating hydrological model performance using information theory-based metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic m...

  9. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of the Nyl River floodplain Part ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catchment land-use and water resource developments may threaten the ecological integrity of the Nyl River floodplain, a world-renowned conservation area. The effect of developments on the water supply regime to the floodplain can be predicted by hydrological modelling, but assessing their ecological consequences ...

  10. Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growth and water transfer in the root zone, underpins efficient use of water resources in arid-zone agriculture. Water transfers take place in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and include groundwater dynamics, unsaturated zone flow, evaporation/transpiration from vegetated/bare soil and surface water, agricultural canal/surface water flow and seepage, and well pumping. Models can be categorized into three classes: (1 regional distributed hydrological models with various land uses, (2 groundwater-soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models that neglect lateral water fluxes, and (3 coupled models with groundwater flow and unsaturated zone water dynamics. This review highlights, in addition, future research challenges in modeling arid-zone agricultural systems, e.g., to effectively assimilate data from remote sensing, and to fully reflect climate change effects at various model scales.

  11. Strategies for Detecting Hidden Geothermal Systems by Near-Surface Gas Monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewicki, Jennifer L.; Oldenburg, Curtis M.

    2004-12-15

    ''Hidden'' geothermal systems are those systems above which hydrothermal surface features (e.g., hot springs, fumaroles, elevated ground temperatures, hydrothermal alteration) are lacking. Emissions of moderate to low solubility gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, He) may be one of the primary near-surface signals from these systems. Detection of anomalous gas emissions related to hidden geothermal systems may therefore be an important tool to discover new geothermal resources. This study investigates the potential for CO2 detection and monitoring in the subsurface and above ground in the near-surface environment to serve as a tool to discover hidden geothermal systems. We focus the investigation on CO2 due to (1) its abundance in geothermal systems, (2) its moderate solubility in water, and (3) the wide range of technologies available to monitor CO2 in the near-surface environment. However, monitoring in the near-surface environment for CO2 derived from hidden geothermal reservoirs is complicated by the large variation in CO2 fluxes and concentrations arising from natural biological and hydrologic processes. In the near-surface environment, the flow and transport of CO2 at high concentrations will be controlled by its high density, low viscosity, and high solubility in water relative to air. Numerical simulations of CO2 migration show that CO2 concentrations can reach very high levels in the shallow subsurface even for relatively low geothermal source CO2 fluxes. However, once CO2 seeps out of the ground into the atmospheric surface layer, surface winds are effective at dispersing CO2 seepage. In natural ecological systems in the absence of geothermal gas emissions, near-surface CO2 fluxes and concentrations are primarily controlled by CO2 uptake by photosynthesis, production by root respiration, and microbial decomposition of soil/subsoil organic matter, groundwater degassing, and exchange with the atmosphere. Available technologies for monitoring CO2 in

  12. Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

    2017-12-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  13. JAMS - a software platform for modular hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kralisch, Sven; Fischer, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Current challenges of understanding and assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes on environmental systems demand for an ever-increasing integration of data and process knowledge in corresponding simulation models. Software frameworks that allow for a seamless creation of integrated models based on less complex components (domain models, process simulation routines) have therefore gained increasing attention during the last decade. JAMS is an Open-Source software framework that has been especially designed to cope with the challenges of eco-hydrological modelling. This is reflected by (i) its flexible approach for representing time and space, (ii) a strong separation of process simulation components from the declarative description of more complex models using domain specific XML, (iii) powerful analysis and visualization functions for spatial and temporal input and output data, and (iv) parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis functions commonly used in environmental modelling. Based on JAMS, different hydrological and nutrient-transport simulation models were implemented and successfully applied during the last years. We will present the JAMS core concepts and give an overview of models, simulation components and support tools available for that framework. Sample applications will be used to underline the advantages of component-based model designs and to show how JAMS can be used to address the challenges of integrated hydrological modelling.

  14. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  15. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  16. Unwrapped phase inversion for near surface seismic data

    KAUST Repository

    Choi, Yun Seok

    2012-11-04

    The Phase-wrapping is one of the main obstacles of waveform inversion. We use an inversion algorithm based on the instantaneous-traveltime that overcomes the phase-wrapping problem. With a high damping factor, the frequency-dependent instantaneous-traveltime inversion provides the stability of refraction tomography, with higher resolution results, and no arrival picking involved. We apply the instantaneous-traveltime inversion to the synthetic data generated by the elastic time-domain modeling. The synthetic data is a representative of the near surface seismic data. Although the inversion algorithm is based on the acoustic wave equation, the numerical examples show that the instantaneous-traveltime inversion generates a convergent velocity model, very similar to what we see from traveltime tomography.

  17. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisseuil, C; Vrac, M; Grenouillet, G; Wade, A J; Gevrey, M; Oberdorff, T; Grodwohl, J-B; Lek, S

    2012-05-01

    To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Different methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall data for operational hydrology and hydrological modeling at watershed scale: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ly, S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed management and hydrological modeling require data related to the very important matter of precipitation, often measured using raingages or weather stations. Hydrological models often require a preliminary spatial interpolation as part of the modeling process. The success of spatial interpolation varies according to the type of model chosen, its mode of geographical management and the resolution used. The quality of a result is determined by the quality of the continuous spatial rainfall, which ensues from the interpolation method used. The objective of this article is to review the existing methods for interpolation of rainfall data that are usually required in hydrological modeling. We review the basis for the application of certain common methods and geostatistical approaches used in interpolation of rainfall. Previous studies have highlighted the need for new research to investigate ways of improving the quality of rainfall data and ultimately, the quality of hydrological modeling.

  19. Long Memory Models to Generate Synthetic Hydrological Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Armando de Almeida Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, much of the energy production comes from hydroelectric plants whose planning is not trivial due to the strong dependence on rainfall regimes. This planning is accomplished through optimization models that use inputs such as synthetic hydrologic series generated from the statistical model PAR(p (periodic autoregressive. Recently, Brazil began the search for alternative models able to capture the effects that the traditional model PAR(p does not incorporate, such as long memory effects. Long memory in a time series can be defined as a significant dependence between lags separated by a long period of time. Thus, this research develops a study of the effects of long dependence in the series of streamflow natural energy in the South subsystem, in order to estimate a long memory model capable of generating synthetic hydrologic series.

  20. Projected change in characteristics of near surface temperature inversions for southeast Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason Peter; Di Luca, Alejandro; Jiang, Ningbo; Olson, Roman; Fita, Lluis; Argüeso, Daniel; Chang, Lisa T.-C.; Scorgie, Yvonne; Riley, Matt

    2018-05-01

    Air pollution has significant impacts on human health. Temperature inversions, especially near surface temperature inversions, can amplify air pollution by preventing convective movements and trapping pollutants close to the ground, thus decreasing air quality and increasing health issues. This effect of temperature inversions implies that trends in their frequency, strength and duration can have important implications for air quality. In this study, we evaluate the ability of three reanalysis-driven high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations to represent near surface inversions at 9 sounding sites in southeast Australia. Then we use outputs of 12 historical and future RCM simulations (each with three time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory) Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project to investigate changes in near surface temperature inversions. The results show that there is a substantial increase in the strength of near surface temperature inversions over southeast Australia which suggests that future inversions may intensify poor air quality events. Near surface inversions and their future changes have clear seasonal and diurnal variations. The largest differences between simulations are associated with the driving GCMs, suggesting that the large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in near surface inversion strengths.

  1. Using a lumped conceptual hydrological model for five different catchments in Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Ekenberg, Madeleine

    2016-01-01

    Hydrological models offer powerful tools for understanding and predicting. In this thesis we havereviewed the advantages and disadvantages of physically based distributed hydrological models andconceptually lumped hydrological models. Based on that review, we went into depth and developed aMATLAB code to test if a simple conceptual lumped hydrological model, namely GR2M, wouldperform satisfactory for five different catchments in different parts of Sweden. The model had ratherunsatisfactory re...

  2. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  3. Hydrology in a Mediterranean mountain environment, the Vallcebre Research basins (North Eastern Spain). IV. Testing hydrological and erosion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallart, F.; Latron, J.; Llorens, P.; Martinez-Carreras, N.

    2009-01-01

    Three modelling exercises were carried out in the Vallcebre research basins in order to both improve the understanding of the hydrological processes and test the adequate of some models in such Mediterranean mountain conditions. These exercises consisted of i) the analysis of the hydrological role of the agricultural terraces using the TOPMODEL topographic index, ii) the parametrisation of TOPMODEL using internal basin information, and iii) a test of the erosion model KINEROS2 for simulating badlands erosion. (Author) 13 refs.

  4. Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estupina-Borrell, V.; Dartus, D.; Ababou, R.

    2006-11-01

    Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (M

  5. Selection of Hydrological Model for Waterborne Release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-01-01

    This evaluation will aid in determining the potential impacts of liquid releases to downstream populations on the Savannah River. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the two available models and determine the appropriate model for use in following waterborne release analyses. Additionally, this report will document the Design Basis and Beyond Design Basis accidents to be used in the future study

  6. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage

    OpenAIRE

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindb?ck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A

    2015-01-01

    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and exa...

  7. Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskob, W.; Heling, R.; Zheleznyak, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems. (authors)

  8. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  9. Integrating hydrologic modeling web services with online data sharing to prepare, store, and execute models in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, T.; Tarboton, D. G.; Dash, P. K.; Gichamo, T.; Horsburgh, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Web based apps, web services and online data and model sharing technology are becoming increasingly available to support research. This promises benefits in terms of collaboration, platform independence, transparency and reproducibility of modeling workflows and results. However, challenges still exist in real application of these capabilities and the programming skills researchers need to use them. In this research we combined hydrologic modeling web services with an online data and model sharing system to develop functionality to support reproducible hydrologic modeling work. We used HydroDS, a system that provides web services for input data preparation and execution of a snowmelt model, and HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. To make the web services easy to use, we developed a HydroShare app (based on the Tethys platform) to serve as a browser based user interface for HydroDS. In this integration, HydroDS receives web requests from the HydroShare app to process the data and execute the model. HydroShare supports storage and sharing of the results generated by HydroDS web services. The snowmelt modeling example served as a use case to test and evaluate this approach. We show that, after the integration, users can prepare model inputs or execute the model through the web user interface of the HydroShare app without writing program code. The model input/output files and metadata describing the model instance are stored and shared in HydroShare. These files include a Python script that is automatically generated by the HydroShare app to document and reproduce the model input preparation workflow. Once stored in HydroShare, inputs and results can be shared with other users, or published so that other users can directly discover, repeat or modify the modeling work. This approach provides a collaborative environment that integrates hydrologic web services with a data and model sharing

  10. On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharari, S.

    2016-01-01

    Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,

  11. Integrated hydrological modelling of the North China Plain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shu, Yunqiao; Villholth, Karen G.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2012-01-01

    The integrated hydrological model MIKE SHE was applied to a part of the North China Plain to examine the dynamics of the hydrological system and to assess water management options to restore depleted groundwater resources. The model simulates the spatio-temporal distribution of recharge...... for scenario analysis of the effect of different cropping rotations, irrigation intensity, and other water management options, like the implementation of the South to North Water Transfer (SNWT) project. The model analysis verified that groundwater tables in the region are subject to steep declines (up to 1 m....../yr) due to decades of intensive exploitation of the groundwater resources for crop irrigation, primarily the widespread crop rotation of irrigated winter wheat and mostly rainfed summer maize. The SNWT project mitigates water stress in Shijiazhuang city and areas adjacent to wastewater canals but cannot...

  12. The application of remote sensing to the development and formulation of hydrologic planning models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, T. R.; Castruccio, P. A.; Loats, H. L., Jr.

    1977-01-01

    The development of a remote sensing model and its efficiency in determining parameters of hydrologic models are reviewed. Procedures for extracting hydrologic data from LANDSAT imagery, and the visual analysis of composite imagery are presented. A hydrologic planning model is developed and applied to determine seasonal variations in watershed conditions. The transfer of this technology to a user community and contract arrangements are discussed.

  13. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological

  14. Modeled hydrologic metrics show links between hydrology and the functional composition of stream assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Christopher J; Yuan, Lester L

    2017-07-01

    Flow alteration is widespread in streams, but current understanding of the effects of differences in flow characteristics on stream biological communities is incomplete. We tested hypotheses about the effect of variation in hydrology on stream communities by using generalized additive models to relate watershed information to the values of different flow metrics at gauged sites. Flow models accounted for 54-80% of the spatial variation in flow metric values among gauged sites. We then used these models to predict flow metrics in 842 ungauged stream sites in the mid-Atlantic United States that were sampled for fish, macroinvertebrates, and environmental covariates. Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages were characterized in terms of a suite of metrics that quantified aspects of community composition, diversity, and functional traits that were expected to be associated with differences in flow characteristics. We related modeled flow metrics to biological metrics in a series of stressor-response models. Our analyses identified both drying and base flow instability as explaining 30-50% of the observed variability in fish and invertebrate community composition. Variations in community composition were related to variations in the prevalence of dispersal traits in invertebrates and trophic guilds in fish. The results demonstrate that we can use statistical models to predict hydrologic conditions at bioassessment sites, which, in turn, we can use to estimate relationships between flow conditions and biological characteristics. This analysis provides an approach to quantify the effects of spatial variation in flow metrics using readily available biomonitoring data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  15. Selection of Hydrological Model for Waterborne Release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-01-01

    Following a request from the States of South Carolina and Georgia, downstream radiological consequences from postulated accidental aqueous releases at the three Savannah River Site nonreactor nuclear facilities will be examined. This evaluation will aid in determining the potential impacts of liquid releases to downstream populations on the Savannah River. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the two available models and determine the appropriate model for use in following waterborne release analyses. Additionally, this report will document the accidents to be used in the future study

  16. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  17. Regionalization Study of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM) in Hydrologically Homogeneous River Basins of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Babita; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghvendra P.

    2017-04-01

    A new semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model, namely Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), has been developed under 'PRACRITI-2' program of Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad for sustainable water resources management of India by using data from Indian Remote Sensing satellites. Entire India is divided into 5km x 5km grid cells and properties at the center of the cells are assumed to represent the property of the cells. SHM contains five modules namely surface water, forest, snow, groundwater and routing. Two empirical equations (SCS-CN and Hargreaves) and water balance method have been used in the surface water module; the forest module is based on the calculations of water balancing & dynamics of subsurface. 2-D Boussinesq equation is used for groundwater modelling which is solved using implicit finite-difference. The routing module follows a distributed routing approach which requires flow path and network with the key point of travel time estimation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of SHM using regionalization technique which also checks the usefulness of a model in data scarce condition or for ungauged basins. However, homogeneity analysis is pre-requisite to regionalization. Similarity index (Φ) and hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis are adopted to test the homogeneity in terms of physical attributes of three basins namely Brahmani (39,033 km km^2)), Baitarani (10,982 km km^2)) and Kangsabati (9,660 km km^2)) with respect to Subarnarekha (29,196 km km^2)) basin. The results of both homogeneity analysis show that Brahmani basin is the most homogeneous with respect to Subarnarekha river basin in terms of physical characteristics (land use land cover classes, soiltype and elevation). The calibration and validation of model parameters of Brahmani basin is in progress which are to be transferred into the SHM set up of Subarnarekha basin and results are to be compared with the results of calibrated and validated

  18. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

  19. Hydrologic modeling of reclaimed strip mine spoil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, K.B.; Stoertz, M.W.; Turney, D.C.

    1998-01-01

    A numerical groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) of a surface coal mine in southeast Ohio was calibrated under steady state conditions to match measured heads by varying hydraulic conductivity (K) and recharge (R). Sensitivity studies indicated that K was not largely dependent on the poorly quantified underclay elevation or on the lake boundary condition. The baseflow recharge was determined to be between 8 and 60 mm/yr (1 to 6% of annual rainfall) and K between 0.004 and 0.01 cm/s for the spoil aquifer

  20. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  1. Modeling post-wildfire hydrological processes with ParFlow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, I. S.; Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfires alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration rates, and subsurface water storage. Post-fire hydrologic models are typically one-dimensional, empirically-based models or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful for modeling and predictions at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide detailed, distributed hydrologic processes at the point scale within the watershed. This research uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing the spatial and temporal variability of soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This work builds upon previous field and remote sensing analysis conducted for the 2003 Old Fire Burn in Devil Canyon, located in southern California (USA). This model is initially developed for a hillslope defined by a 500 m by 1000 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 12.4 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness to explicitly consider soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. We consider four slope and eight hydrophobic layer configurations. Evapotranspiration is used as a proxy for vegetation regrowth and is represented by the satellite-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBOP) product. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated at the point scale. Results will be used as a basis for developing and fine-tuning a watershed-scale model. Long-term simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management. In reference

  2. Development of a "Hydrologic Equivalent Wetland" Concept for Modeling Cumulative Effects of Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Liu, T.; Li, R.; Yang, X.; Duan, L.; Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Wetlands are one of the most important watershed microtopographic features that affect, in combination rather than individually, hydrologic processes (e.g., routing) and the fate and transport of constituents (e.g., sediment and nutrients). Efforts to conserve existing wetlands and/or to restore lost wetlands require that watershed-level effects of wetlands on water quantity and water quality be quantified. Because monitoring approaches are usually cost or logistics prohibitive at watershed scale, distributed watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), can be a best resort if wetlands can be appropriately represented in the models. However, the exact method that should be used to incorporate wetlands into hydrologic models is the subject of much disagreement in the literature. In addition, there is a serious lack of information about how to model wetland conservation-restoration effects using such kind of integrated modeling approach. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a "hydrologic equivalent wetland" (HEW) concept; and 2) demonstrate how to use the HEW concept in SWAT to assess effects of wetland restoration within the Broughton's Creek watershed located in southwestern Manitoba of Canada, and of wetland conservation within the upper portion of the Otter Tail River watershed located in northwestern Minnesota of the United States. The HEWs were defined in terms of six calibrated parameters: the fraction of the subbasin area that drains into wetlands (WET_FR), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their normal water level (WET_NVOL), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their maximum water level (WET_MXVOL), the longest tributary channel length in the subbasin (CH_L1), Manning's n value for the tributary channels (CH_N1), and Manning's n value for the main channel (CH_N2). The results indicated that the HEW concept allows the nonlinear functional relations between watershed processes

  3. A Socio-hydrological Flood Model for the Elbe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barendrecht, M.; Viglione, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.; Bloeschl, G.

    2017-12-01

    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent such phenomena and the feedbacks leading to them. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management when they are applied to real world case studies. They can help develop hypotheses about the phenomena that have been observed in the case study of interest, by describing the interactions between the social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, that play a role in the system. We discuss the case of Dresden where the 2002 flood, which was preceded by a period without floods but was less severe, resulted in a higher damage than the 2013 flood, which was preceded by the 2002 flood and a couple of less severe floods. The lower damage in 2013 may be explained by the fact that society has become aware of the flood risk and has adapted to it. Developing and applying a socio-hydrological flood model to the case of Dresden can help discover whether it is possible that the lower damage is caused by an adaptation effect, or if there are other feedbacks that can explain the observed phenomenon.

  4. Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir

  5. Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

  6. Sensitivity of Hydrologic Response to Climate Model Debiasing Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channell, K.; Gronewold, A.; Rood, R. B.; Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.; Hunter, T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is already having a profound impact on the global hydrologic cycle. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, changes in long-term evaporation and precipitation can lead to rapid water level fluctuations in the lakes, as evidenced by unprecedented change in water levels seen in the last two decades. These fluctuations often have an adverse impact on the region's human, environmental, and economic well-being, making accurate long-term water level projections invaluable to regional water resources management planning. Here we use hydrological components from a downscaled climate model (GFDL-CM3/WRF), to obtain future water supplies for the Great Lakes. We then apply a suite of bias correction procedures before propagating these water supplies through a routing model to produce lake water levels. Results using conventional bias correction methods suggest that water levels will decline by several feet in the coming century. However, methods that reflect the seasonal water cycle and explicitly debias individual hydrological components (overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, runoff) imply that future water levels may be closer to their historical average. This discrepancy between debiased results indicates that water level forecasts are highly influenced by the bias correction method, a source of sensitivity that is commonly overlooked. Debiasing, however, does not remedy misrepresentation of the underlying physical processes in the climate model that produce these biases and contribute uncertainty to the hydrological projections. This uncertainty coupled with the differences in water level forecasts from varying bias correction methods are important for water management and long term planning in the Great Lakes region.

  7. Coupled hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of Upper Niger River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinícius; Paris, Adrien; Collischonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo; Gossett, Marielle; Pontes, Paulo; Calmant, Stephane; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Crétaux, Jean-François; Tanimoune, Bachir

    2017-04-01

    The Upper Niger Basin is located in Western Africa, flowing from Guinea Highlands towards the Sahel region. In this area lies the seasonally inundated Niger Inland Delta, which supports important environmental services such as habitats for wildlife, climate and flood regulation, as well as large fishery and agricultural areas. In this study, we present the application of MGB-IPH large scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic model for the Upper Niger Basin, totaling c.a. 650,000 km2 and set up until the city of Niamey in Niger. The model couples hydrological vertical balance and runoff generation with hydrodynamic flood wave propagation, by allowing infiltration from floodplains into soil column as well as representing backwater effects and floodplain storage throughout flat areas such as the Inland Delta. The model is forced with TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation and Climate Research Unit (CRU) climatology for the period 2000-2010, and was calibrated against in-situ discharge gauges and validated with in-situ water level, remotely sensed estimations of flooded areas (classification of MODIS imagery) and satellite altimetry (JASON-2 mission). Model results show good predictions for calibrated daily discharge and validated water level and altimetry at stations both upstream and downstream of the delta (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency>0.7 for all stations), as well as for flooded areas within the delta region (ENS=0.5; r2=0.8), allowing a good representation of flooding dynamics basinwide and simulation of flooding behavior of both perennial (e.g., Niger main stem) and ephemeral rivers (e.g., Niger Red Flood tributaries in Sahel). Coupling between hydrology and hydrodynamic processes indicates an important feedback between floodplain and soil water storage that allows high evapotranspiration rates even after the flood passage around the inner delta area. Also, representation of water retention in floodplain channels and distributaries in the inner delta (e.g., Diaka river

  8. Estimation of the near surface soil water content during evaporation using air-launched ground-penetrating radar

    KAUST Repository

    Moghadas, Davood

    2014-01-01

    Evaporation is an important process in the global water cycle and its variation affects the near sur-face soil water content, which is crucial for surface hydrology and climate modelling. Soil evaporation rate is often characterized by two distinct phases, namely, the energy limited phase (stage-I) and the soil hydraulic limited period (stage-II). In this paper, a laboratory experiment was conducted using a sand box filled with fine sand, which was subject to evaporation for a period of twenty three days. The setup was equipped with a weighting system to record automatically the weight of the sand box with a constant time-step. Furthermore, time-lapse air-launched ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurements were performed to monitor the evaporation process. The GPR model involves a full-waveform frequency-domain solution of Maxwell\\'s equations for wave propagation in three-dimensional multilayered media. The accuracy of the full-waveform GPR forward modelling with respect to three different petrophysical models was investigated. Moreover, full-waveform inversion of the GPR data was used to estimate the quantitative information, such as near surface soil water content. The two stages of evaporation can be clearly observed in the radargram, which indicates qualitatively that enough information is contained in the GPR data. The full-waveform GPR inversion allows for accurate estimation of the near surface soil water content during extended evaporation phases, when a wide frequency range of GPR (0.8-5.0 GHz) is taken into account. In addition, the results indicate that the CRIM model may constitute a relevant alternative in solving the frequency-dependency issue for full waveform GPR modelling.

  9. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  10. Hydrological modelling of the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Suprit, K.

    pleasure. I am thankful to our system administrators Dattaram, Kaushik, Krupesh, Ashok and Sarvesh for providing hassle-free computer and peripheral support. After passing M. Sc., I was looking for a research position and NIO was not on my radar. Roxy, my..., and evaporation. The framework is based on Terrestrial Hydrologic Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB) 2, a numerical model developed by Coe [2000]. THMB model provides a reliable water balance of a river system. Figure 1.7 The Mandovi and Zuari (all rivers digitized...

  11. Hydrological Modelling of Small Scale Processes in a Wetland Habitat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Ole; Jensen, Jacob Birk; Pedersen, Morten Lauge

    2009-01-01

    Numerical modelling of the hydrology in a Danish rich fen area has been conducted. By collecting various data in the field the model has been successfully calibrated and the flow paths as well as the groundwater discharge distribution have been simulated in details. The results of this work have...... shown that distributed numerical models can be applied to local scale problems and that natural springs, ditches, the geological conditions as well as the local topographic variations have a significant influence on the flow paths in the examined rich fen area....

  12. Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Li, Tiejian; Sun, Liqun; Chen, Ji

    2013-01-01

    With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

  13. Data Assimilation in Integrated and Distributed Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Donghua

    processes and provide simulations in refined temporal and spatial resolutions. Recent developments in measurement and sensor technologies have significantly improved the coverage, quality, frequency and diversity of hydrological observations. Data assimilation provides a great potential in relation...... point of view, different assimilation methodologies and techniques have been developed or customized to better serve hydrological assimilation. From the application point of view, real data and real-world complex catchments are used with the focus of investigating the models’ improvements with data...... a variety of model uncertainty sources and scales. Next the groundwater head assimilation experiment was tested in a much more complex catchment with assimilation of biased real observations. In such cases, the bias-aware assimilation method significantly outperforms the standard assimilation method...

  14. Modeling the Hydrologic Processes of a Permeable Pavement ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    A permeable pavement system can capture stormwater to reduce runoff volume and flow rate, improve onsite groundwater recharge, and enhance pollutant controls within the site. A new unit process model for evaluating the hydrologic performance of a permeable pavement system has been developed in this study. The developed model can continuously simulate infiltration through the permeable pavement surface, exfiltration from the storage to the surrounding in situ soils, and clogging impacts on infiltration/exfiltration capacity at the pavement surface and the bottom of the subsurface storage unit. The exfiltration modeling component simulates vertical and horizontal exfiltration independently based on Darcy’s formula with the Green-Ampt approximation. The developed model can be arranged with physically-based modeling parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, Manning’s friction flow parameters, saturated and field capacity volumetric water contents, porosity, density, etc. The developed model was calibrated using high-frequency observed data. The modeled water depths are well matched with the observed values (R2 = 0.90). The modeling results show that horizontal exfiltration through the side walls of the subsurface storage unit is a prevailing factor in determining the hydrologic performance of the system, especially where the storage unit is developed in a long, narrow shape; or with a high risk of bottom compaction and clogging. This paper presents unit

  15. Technology and economics of near-surface geothermal resources exploitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Э. И. Богуславский

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents economic justification for applicability of near-surface geothermal installations in Luga region, based on results of techno-economic calculations as well as integrated technical and economic comparison of different prediction scenarios of heat supply, both conventional and using geothermal heat pumps (GHP. Construction costs of a near-surface geothermal system can exceed the costs of central heating by 50-100 %. However, operation and maintenance (O&M costs of heat production for geothermal systems are 50-70 % lower than for conventional sources of heating. Currently this technology is very important, it is applied in various countries (USA, Germany, Japan, China etc., and depending on the region both near-surface and deep boreholes are being used. World practice of near-surface geothermal systems application is reviewed in the paper.

  16. ISLSCP II Reanalysis Near-Surface Meteorology Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set for the ISLSCP Initiative II data collection provides near surface meteorological variables, fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum at the surface, and...

  17. ISLSCP II Reanalysis Near-Surface Meteorology Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set for the ISLSCP Initiative II data collection provides near surface meteorological variables, fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum at the...

  18. Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2013-11-01

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

  19. Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karvonen, T. [WaterHope, Helsinki (Finland)

    2013-11-15

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

  20. Evaluation and hydrological modelization in the natural hazard prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pla Sentis, Ildefonso

    2011-01-01

    Soil degradation affects negatively his functions as a base to produce food, to regulate the hydrological cycle and the environmental quality. All over the world soil degradation is increasing partly due to lacks or deficiencies in the evaluations of the processes and causes of this degradation on each specific situation. The processes of soil physical degradation are manifested through several problems as compaction, runoff, hydric and Eolic erosion, landslides with collateral effects in situ and in the distance, often with disastrous consequences as foods, landslides, sedimentations, droughts, etc. These processes are frequently associated to unfavorable changes into the hydrologic processes responsible of the water balance and soil hydric regimes, mainly derived to soil use changes and different management practices and climatic changes. The evaluation of these processes using simple simulation models; under several scenarios of climatic change, soil properties and land use and management; would allow to predict the occurrence of this disastrous processes and consequently to select and apply the appropriate practices of soil conservation to eliminate or reduce their effects. This simulation models require, as base, detailed climatic information and hydrologic soil properties data. Despite of the existence of methodologies and commercial equipment (each time more sophisticated and precise) to measure the different physical and hydrological soil properties related with degradation processes, most of them are only applicable under really specific or laboratory conditions. Often indirect methodologies are used, based on relations or empiric indexes without an adequate validation, that often lead to expensive mistakes on the evaluation of soil degradation processes and their effects on natural disasters. It could be preferred simple field methodologies, direct and adaptable to different soil types and climates and to the sample size and the spatial variability of the

  1. Estimating Runoff From Roadcuts With a Distributed Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuhaciyan, C.; Luce, C.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D.; Black, T.

    2008-12-01

    Roads can have a substantial effect on hydrologic patterns of forested watersheds; the most noteworthy being the resurfacing of shallow groundwater at roadcuts. The influence of roads on hydrology has compelled hydrologists to include water routing and storage routines in rainfall-runoff models, such as those in the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). We tested the ability of DHSVM to match observed runoff in roadcuts of a watershed in the Coast Range of Oregon. Eight roadcuts were instrumented using large tipping bucket gauges designed to capture only the water entering the roadside ditch from an 80-m long roadcut. The roadcuts were categorized by the topography of the upstream hillside as either swale, planar, or ridge. The simulation was run from December 2002 to December 2003 at a relatively fine spatial resolution (10-m). Average observed soil depths are 1.8-m across the watershed, below which there lies deep and highly weathered sandstone. DHSVM was designed for relatively impermeable bedrock and shallow soils; therefore it does not provide a mechanism for deep groundwater movement and storage. In the geologic setting of the study basin, however, water is routed through the sandstone allowing water to pass under roads through the parent material. For this reason a uniformly deep soil of 6.5-m with a decreased decay in conductivity with depth was used in the model to allow water to be routed beneath roadcuts that are up to 5.5-m in height. Up to three, typically shallow, soil layers can be modeled in DHSVM. We used the lowest of the three soil layers to mimic the hydraulically-well-connected sandstone exposed at deeper roadcuts. The model was calibrated against observed discharge at the outlet of the watershed. While model results closely matched the observed hydrograph at the watershed outlet, simulated runoff at an upstream gauge and the roadside ditches were varied and often higher than those observed in the field. The timing of the field

  2. Assimilation of remote sensing and hydrological data using adaptive filtering techniques for watershed modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Sat; Sekhar, M; Bandyopadhyay, Sanjoy

    2009-01-01

    The knowledge of hydrological variables (e. g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration) are of pronounced importance in various applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management. These applications require the accurate prediction of hydrological variables spatially and temporally in watershed/basin. Though hydrological models can simulate these variables at desired resolution (spatial and temporal), often they are validated against the variab...

  3. Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2015-09-01

    Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

  4. Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, L. D.; Tom, C.; Nualchawee, K.

    1977-01-01

    A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.

  5. Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

    2012-01-01

    Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  6. Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

  7. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...... and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data...

  8. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  9. Hydrological modeling of the Simly Dam watershed (Pakistan) using GIS and SWAT model

    OpenAIRE

    Shimaa M. Ghoraba

    2015-01-01

    Modern mathematical models have been developed for studying the complex hydrological processes of a watershed and their direct relation to weather, topography, geology and land use. In this study the hydrology of Simly Dam watershed located in Saon River basin at the north-east of Islamabad is modeled, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). It aims to simulate the stream flow, establish the water balance and estimate the monthly volume inflow to Simly Dam in order to help the manage...

  10. Near Surface CO2 Triple Oxygen Isotope Composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasadhar Mahata

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The isotopic composition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a powerful tool for constraining its sources and sinks. In particular, the 17O oxygen anomaly [Δ17O = 1000 × ln(1 + δ17O/1000 - 0.516 × 1000 × ln(1 + δ18O/1000], with a value > 0.5‰ produced in the middle atmosphere, provides an ideal tool for probing the exchange of carbon dioxide between the biosphere/hydrosphere and atmosphere. The biosphere/hydrosphere and anthropogenic emissions give values ≤ 0.3‰. Therefore, any anomaly in near surface CO2 would reflect the balance between stratospheric input and exchange with the aforementioned surface sources. We have analyzed Δ17O values of CO2 separated from air samples collected in Taipei, Taiwan, located in the western Pacific region. The obtained mean anomaly is 0.42 ± 0.14‰ (1-σ standard deviation, in good agreement with model prediction and a published decadal record. Apart from typically used δ13C and δ18O values, the Δ17O value could provide an additional tracer for constraining the carbon cycle.

  11. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  12. One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Boyce, Scott E.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hughes, Joseph D.; Mehl, Steffen W.; Leake, Stanley A.; Maddock, Thomas; Niswonger, Richard G.

    2014-01-01

    The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model (IHM) that is the most complete version, to date, of the MODFLOW family of hydrologic simulators needed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use issues. Conjunctive use is the combined use of groundwater and surface water. MF-OWHM allows the simulation, analysis, and management of nearly all components of human and natural water movement and use in a physically-based supply-and-demand framework. MF-OWHM is based on the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005 (MF-FMP2) combined with Local Grid Refinement (LGR) for embedded models to allow use of the Farm Process (FMP) and Streamflow Routing (SFR) within embedded grids. MF-OWHM also includes new features such as the Surface-water Routing Process (SWR), Seawater Intrusion (SWI), and Riparian Evapotrasnpiration (RIP-ET), and new solvers such as Newton-Raphson (NWT) and nonlinear preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCGN). This IHM also includes new connectivities to expand the linkages for deformation-, flow-, and head-dependent flows. Deformation-dependent flows are simulated through the optional linkage to simulated land subsidence with a vertically deforming mesh. Flow-dependent flows now include linkages between the new SWR with SFR and FMP, as well as connectivity with embedded models for SFR and FMP through LGR. Head-dependent flows now include a modified Hydrologic Flow Barrier Package (HFB) that allows optional transient HFB capabilities, and the flow between any two layers that are adjacent along a depositional or erosional boundary or displaced along a fault. MF-OWHM represents a complete operational hydrologic model that fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by irrigated agriculture, but also of water used in urban areas and by natural vegetation. Supply and demand components of water use are analyzed under demand-driven and supply

  13. Technical review of large-scale hydrological models for implementation in operational flood forecasting schemes on continental level

    OpenAIRE

    KAUFFELD Anna; WETTERHALL F.; Pappenberger F.; SALAMON Peter; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2014-01-01

    The uncertainty in operational hydrological forecast systems driven with numerical weather predictions inputs are often assessed by quantifying the uncertainty from the inputs and not from the hydrological model itself. However, part of the uncertainty in modelled discharge stems from the hydrological model and some models may be more suitable than others for particular processes. A hydrological multi-model hydrological system can account for some of this uncertainty, but there exists a p...

  14. Adaptable Web Modules to Stimulate Active Learning in Engineering Hydrology using Data and Model Simulations of Three Regional Hydrologic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, E. H.; Tarboton, D. G.; Lall, U.; Bodin, M.; Rahill-Marier, B.; Chimmula, S.; Meselhe, E. A.; Ali, A.; Williams, D.; Ma, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The hydrologic community has long recognized the need for broad reform in hydrologic education. A paradigm shift is critically sought in undergraduate hydrology and water resource education by adopting context-rich, student-centered, and active learning strategies. Hydrologists currently deal with intricate issues rooted in complex natural ecosystems containing a multitude of interconnected processes. Advances in the multi-disciplinary field include observational settings such as Critical Zone and Water, Sustainability and Climate Observatories, Hydrologic Information Systems, instrumentation and modeling methods. These research advances theory and practices call for similar efforts and improvements in hydrologic education. The typical, text-book based approach in hydrologic education has focused on specific applications and/or unit processes associated with the hydrologic cycle with idealizations, rather than the contextual relations in the physical processes and the spatial and temporal dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. An appreciation of the natural variability of these processes will lead to graduates with the ability to develop independent learning skills and understanding. This appreciation cannot be gained in curricula where field components such as observational and experimental data are deficient. These types of data are also critical when using simulation models to create environments that support this type of learning. Additional sources of observations in conjunction with models and field data are key to students understanding of the challenges associated with using models to represent such complex systems. Recent advances in scientific visualization and web-based technologies provide new opportunities for the development of active learning techniques utilizing ongoing research. The overall goal of the current study is to develop visual, case-based, data and simulation driven learning experiences to instructors and students through a web

  15. A Flexible Framework Hydrological Informatic Modeling System - HIMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, L.; Wang, Z.; Changming, L.; Li, J.; Bai, P.

    2017-12-01

    Simulating water cycling process temporally and spatially fitting for the characteristics of the study area was important for floods prediction and streamflow simulation with high accuracy, as soil properties, land scape, climate, and land managements were the critical factors influencing the non-linear relationship of rainfall-runoff at watershed scales. Most existing hydrological models cannot simulate water cycle process at different places with customized mechanisms with fixed single structure and mode. This study develops Hydro-Informatic Modeling System (HIMS) model with modular of each critical hydrological process with multiple choices for various scenarios to solve this problem. HIMS has the structure accounting for two runoff generation mechanisms of infiltration excess and saturation excess and estimated runoff with different methods including Time Variance Gain Model (TVGM), LCM which has good performance at ungauged areas, besides the widely used Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. Channel routing model contains the most widely used Muskingum, and kinematic wave equation with new solving method. HIMS model performance with its symbolic runoff generation model LCM was evaluated through comparison with the observed streamflow datasets of Lasha river watershed at hourly, daily, and monthly time steps. Comparisons between simulational and obervational streamflows were found with NSE higher than 0.87 and WE within ±20%. Water balance analysis about precipitation, streamflow, actual evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture change was conducted temporally at annual time step and it has been proved that HIMS model performance was reliable through comparison with literature results at the Lhasa River watershed.

  16. Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T I E; Zhao, F; Ward, P J; Moel, H de; Aerts, J C J H; Schmied, H Müller; Portmann, F T; Masaki, Y; Pokhrel, Y; Liu, X; Satoh, Yusuke; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, S N; Zaherpour, J; Wada, Yoshihide

    2018-01-01

    Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the

  17. Spatial prediction of near surface soil water retention functions using hydrogeophysics and empirical orthogonal functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Justin; Franz, Trenton E.

    2018-06-01

    The hydrological community often turns to widely available spatial datasets such as the NRCS Soil Survey Geographic database (SSURGO) to characterize the spatial variability of soil properties. When used to spatially characterize and parameterize watershed models, this has served as a reasonable first approximation when lacking localized or incomplete soil data. Within agriculture, soil data has been left relatively coarse when compared to numerous other data sources measured. This is because localized soil sampling is both expensive and time intense, thus a need exists in better connecting spatial datasets with ground observations. Given that hydrogeophysics is data-dense, rapid, non-invasive, and relatively easy to adopt, it is a promising technique to help dovetail localized soil sampling with spatially exhaustive datasets. In this work, we utilize two common near surface geophysical methods, cosmic-ray neutron probe and electromagnetic induction, to identify temporally stable spatial patterns of measured geophysical properties in three 65 ha agricultural fields in western Nebraska. This is achieved by repeat geophysical observations of the same study area across a range of wet to dry field conditions in order to evaluate with an empirical orthogonal function. Shallow cores were then extracted within each identified zone and water retention functions were generated in the laboratory. Using EOF patterns as a covariate, we quantify the predictive skill of estimating soil hydraulic properties in areas without measurement using a bootstrap validation analysis. Results indicate that sampling locations informed via repeat hydrogeophysical surveys, required only five cores to reduce the cross-validation root mean squared error by an average of 64% as compared to soil parameters predicted by a commonly used benchmark, SSURGO and ROSETTA. The reduction to five strategically located samples within the 65 ha fields reduces sampling efforts by up to ∼90% as compared to

  18. Techniques to Access Databases and Integrate Data for Hydrologic Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, Gene; Tenney, Nathan D.; Pelton, Mitchell A.; Coleman, Andre M.; Ward, Duane L.; Droppo, James G.; Meyer, Philip D.; Dorow, Kevin E.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2009-01-01

    This document addresses techniques to access and integrate data for defining site-specific conditions and behaviors associated with ground-water and surface-water radionuclide transport applicable to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews. Environmental models typically require input data from multiple internal and external sources that may include, but are not limited to, stream and rainfall gage data, meteorological data, hydrogeological data, habitat data, and biological data. These data may be retrieved from a variety of organizations (e.g., federal, state, and regional) and source types (e.g., HTTP, FTP, and databases). Available data sources relevant to hydrologic analyses for reactor licensing are identified and reviewed. The data sources described can be useful to define model inputs and parameters, including site features (e.g., watershed boundaries, stream locations, reservoirs, site topography), site properties (e.g., surface conditions, subsurface hydraulic properties, water quality), and site boundary conditions, input forcings, and extreme events (e.g., stream discharge, lake levels, precipitation, recharge, flood and drought characteristics). Available software tools for accessing established databases, retrieving the data, and integrating it with models were identified and reviewed. The emphasis in this review was on existing software products with minimal required modifications to enable their use with the FRAMES modeling framework. The ability of four of these tools to access and retrieve the identified data sources was reviewed. These four software tools were the Hydrologic Data Acquisition and Processing System (HDAPS), Integrated Water Resources Modeling System (IWRMS) External Data Harvester, Data for Environmental Modeling Environmental Data Download Tool (D4EM EDDT), and the FRAMES Internet Database Tools. The IWRMS External Data Harvester and the D4EM EDDT were identified as the most promising tools based on their ability to access and

  19. Techniques to Access Databases and Integrate Data for Hydrologic Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, Gene; Tenney, Nathan D.; Pelton, Mitchell A.; Coleman, Andre M.; Ward, Duane L.; Droppo, James G.; Meyer, Philip D.; Dorow, Kevin E.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2009-06-17

    This document addresses techniques to access and integrate data for defining site-specific conditions and behaviors associated with ground-water and surface-water radionuclide transport applicable to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews. Environmental models typically require input data from multiple internal and external sources that may include, but are not limited to, stream and rainfall gage data, meteorological data, hydrogeological data, habitat data, and biological data. These data may be retrieved from a variety of organizations (e.g., federal, state, and regional) and source types (e.g., HTTP, FTP, and databases). Available data sources relevant to hydrologic analyses for reactor licensing are identified and reviewed. The data sources described can be useful to define model inputs and parameters, including site features (e.g., watershed boundaries, stream locations, reservoirs, site topography), site properties (e.g., surface conditions, subsurface hydraulic properties, water quality), and site boundary conditions, input forcings, and extreme events (e.g., stream discharge, lake levels, precipitation, recharge, flood and drought characteristics). Available software tools for accessing established databases, retrieving the data, and integrating it with models were identified and reviewed. The emphasis in this review was on existing software products with minimal required modifications to enable their use with the FRAMES modeling framework. The ability of four of these tools to access and retrieve the identified data sources was reviewed. These four software tools were the Hydrologic Data Acquisition and Processing System (HDAPS), Integrated Water Resources Modeling System (IWRMS) External Data Harvester, Data for Environmental Modeling Environmental Data Download Tool (D4EM EDDT), and the FRAMES Internet Database Tools. The IWRMS External Data Harvester and the D4EM EDDT were identified as the most promising tools based on their ability to access and

  20. A high-resolution European dataset for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Salamon, Peter; Gomes, Goncalo; Sint, Hadewij; Lorini, Valerio; Thielen, Jutta

    2013-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for large scale hydrological models not only in the field of modeling the impact of climate change on water resources but also for disaster risk assessments and flood or drought early warning systems. These large scale models need to be calibrated and verified against large amounts of observations in order to judge their capabilities to predict the future. However, the creation of large scale datasets is challenging for it requires collection, harmonization, and quality checking of large amounts of observations. For this reason, only a limited number of such datasets exist. In this work, we present a pan European, high-resolution gridded dataset of meteorological observations (EFAS-Meteo) which was designed with the aim to drive a large scale hydrological model. Similar European and global gridded datasets already exist, such as the HadGHCND (Caesar et al., 2006), the JRC MARS-STAT database (van der Goot and Orlandi, 2003) and the E-OBS gridded dataset (Haylock et al., 2008). However, none of those provide similarly high spatial resolution and/or a complete set of variables to force a hydrologic model. EFAS-Meteo contains daily maps of precipitation, surface temperature (mean, minimum and maximum), wind speed and vapour pressure at a spatial grid resolution of 5 x 5 km for the time period 1 January 1990 - 31 December 2011. It furthermore contains calculated radiation, which is calculated by using a staggered approach depending on the availability of sunshine duration, cloud cover and minimum and maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration (potential evapotranspiration, bare soil and open water evapotranspiration). The potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation with the above-mentioned meteorological variables. The dataset was created as part of the development of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and has been continuously updated throughout the last years. The dataset variables are used as

  1. Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

  2. The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der E.C.; Bintanja, R.; Hazeleger, W.; Katsman, C.A.

    2014-01-01

    Century-scale global near-surface temperature trends in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in climate models vary by almost a factor of 2, with greatest intermodel spread in the Arctic region where sea ice is a key climate component. Three factors contribute to the intermodel spread:

  3. Site specificity of biosphere parameter values in performance assessments of near-surface repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeevaert, Th.; Volckaert, G.; Vandecasleele

    1993-01-01

    The contribution is dealing with the performance assessment model for near surface repositories in Belgium. It consists of four submodels called: site, aquifer, biosphere and dose. For some characteristic radionuclides, results of the study are shown for a typical site, and differences in doses assessed with the generic approach discussed. Shortcomings are indicated

  4. ANNIE - INTERACTIVE PROCESSING OF DATA BASES FOR HYDROLOGIC MODELS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumb, Alan M.; Kittle, John L.

    1985-01-01

    ANNIE is a data storage and retrieval system that was developed to reduce the time and effort required to calibrate, verify, and apply watershed models that continuously simulate water quantity and quality. Watershed models have three categories of input: parameters to describe segments of a drainage area, linkage of the segments, and time-series data. Additional goals for ANNIE include the development of software that is easily implemented on minicomputers and some microcomputers and software that has no special requirements for interactive display terminals. Another goal is for the user interaction to be based on the experience of the user so that ANNIE is helpful to the inexperienced user and yet efficient and brief for the experienced user. Finally, the code should be designed so that additional hydrologic models can easily be added to ANNIE.

  5. European Continental Scale Hydrological Model, Limitations and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouholahnejad, E.; Abbaspour, K.

    2014-12-01

    The pressures on water resources due to increasing levels of societal demand, increasing conflict of interest and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers and policymakers in many parts of Europe. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of pressure and uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. On the other hand, the small-scale sectoral structure of water management is now reaching its limits. The integrated management of water in basins requires a new level of consideration where water bodies are to be viewed in the context of the whole river system and managed as a unit within their basins. In this research we present the limitations and challenges of modelling the hydrology of the continent Europe. The challenges include: data availability at continental scale and the use of globally available data, streamgauge data quality and their misleading impacts on model calibration, calibration of large-scale distributed model, uncertainty quantification, and computation time. We describe how to avoid over parameterization in calibration process and introduce a parallel processing scheme to overcome high computation time. We used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program as an integrated hydrology and crop growth simulator to model water resources of the Europe continent. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals for the period of 1970-2006. The use of a large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation and provides the overall picture of water resources temporal and spatial distribution across the continent. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water

  6. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  7. Integrated surface-subsurface water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. Application of the hydrological model ECOFLOW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sokrut, Nikolay; Werner, Kent; Holmen, Johan

    2007-01-01

    Since 2002, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) performs site investigations in the Simpevarp area, for the siting of a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The site descriptive modelling includes conceptual and quantitative modelling of surface-subsurface water interactions, which are key inputs to safety assessment and environmental impact assessment. Such modelling is important also for planning of continued site investigations. In this report, the distributed hydrological model ECOFLOW is applied to the Laxemar subarea to test the ability of the model to simulate surface water and near-surface groundwater flow, and to illustrate ECOFLOW's advantages and drawbacks. The ECOFLOW model area is generally characterised by large areas of exposed or shallow bedrock. The ECOFLOW modelling results are compared to previous results produced by MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 and PCRaster-POLFLOW, in order to check whether non-calibrated surface and subsurface water flows computed by ECOFLOW are consistent with these previous results. The analyses include quantification and comparison of inflow and outflow terms of the water balance, as well as analyses of groundwater recharge-discharge patterns. ECOFLOW is used to simulate a one-year non calibrated period, considering seven catchments (including three areas with direct runoff to the sea) within the Laxemar subarea. The modelling results show the ability of the model to produce reasonable results for a model domain including both porous media (Quaternary deposits) and discontinuous media (bedrock). The results demonstrate notable differences in the specific discharge between the considered catchments, with specific discharge values in the range 157-212 mm/year; the lowest value (the Lake Frisksjoen catchment) may however be erroneous due to numerical instability in the model. Overall, these results agree with specific discharge values computed by MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 and PCRaster-POLFLOW (190 and 128-186 mm

  8. Integrated surface-subsurface water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. Application of the hydrological model ECOFLOW

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sokrut, Nikolay; Werner, Kent; Holmen, Johan [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2007-01-15

    Since 2002, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) performs site investigations in the Simpevarp area, for the siting of a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The site descriptive modelling includes conceptual and quantitative modelling of surface-subsurface water interactions, which are key inputs to safety assessment and environmental impact assessment. Such modelling is important also for planning of continued site investigations. In this report, the distributed hydrological model ECOFLOW is applied to the Laxemar subarea to test the ability of the model to simulate surface water and near-surface groundwater flow, and to illustrate ECOFLOW's advantages and drawbacks. The ECOFLOW model area is generally characterised by large areas of exposed or shallow bedrock. The ECOFLOW modelling results are compared to previous results produced by MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 and PCRaster-POLFLOW, in order to check whether non-calibrated surface and subsurface water flows computed by ECOFLOW are consistent with these previous results. The analyses include quantification and comparison of inflow and outflow terms of the water balance, as well as analyses of groundwater recharge-discharge patterns. ECOFLOW is used to simulate a one-year non calibrated period, considering seven catchments (including three areas with direct runoff to the sea) within the Laxemar subarea. The modelling results show the ability of the model to produce reasonable results for a model domain including both porous media (Quaternary deposits) and discontinuous media (bedrock). The results demonstrate notable differences in the specific discharge between the considered catchments, with specific discharge values in the range 157-212 mm/year; the lowest value (the Lake Frisksjoen catchment) may however be erroneous due to numerical instability in the model. Overall, these results agree with specific discharge values computed by MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 and PCRaster-POLFLOW (190 and 128

  9. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  10. Data-Driven Model Uncertainty Estimation in Hydrologic Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, S.; Moradkhani, H.; Marshall, L.; Sharma, A.; Geenens, G.

    2018-02-01

    The increasing availability of earth observations necessitates mathematical methods to optimally combine such data with hydrologic models. Several algorithms exist for such purposes, under the umbrella of data assimilation (DA). However, DA methods are often applied in a suboptimal fashion for complex real-world problems, due largely to several practical implementation issues. One such issue is error characterization, which is known to be critical for a successful assimilation. Mischaracterized errors lead to suboptimal forecasts, and in the worst case, to degraded estimates even compared to the no assimilation case. Model uncertainty characterization has received little attention relative to other aspects of DA science. Traditional methods rely on subjective, ad hoc tuning factors or parametric distribution assumptions that may not always be applicable. We propose a novel data-driven approach (named SDMU) to model uncertainty characterization for DA studies where (1) the system states are partially observed and (2) minimal prior knowledge of the model error processes is available, except that the errors display state dependence. It includes an approach for estimating the uncertainty in hidden model states, with the end goal of improving predictions of observed variables. The SDMU is therefore suited to DA studies where the observed variables are of primary interest. Its efficacy is demonstrated through a synthetic case study with low-dimensional chaotic dynamics and a real hydrologic experiment for one-day-ahead streamflow forecasting. In both experiments, the proposed method leads to substantial improvements in the hidden states and observed system outputs over a standard method involving perturbation with Gaussian noise.

  11. Development of hydrological models and surface process modelization Study case in High Mountain slopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loaiza, Juan Carlos; Pauwels, Valentijn R

    2011-01-01

    Hydrological models are useful because allow to predict fluxes into the hydrological systems, which is useful to predict foods and violent phenomenon associated to water fluxes, especially in materials under a high meteorization level. The combination of these models with meteorological predictions, especially with rainfall models, allow to model water behavior into the soil. On most of cases, this type of models is really sensible to evapotranspiration. On climatic studies, the superficial processes have to be represented adequately. Calibration and validation of these models is necessary to obtain reliable results. This paper is a practical exercise of application of complete hydrological information at detailed scale in a high mountain catchment, considering the soil use and types more representatives. The information of soil moisture, infiltration, runoff and rainfall is used to calibrate and validate TOPLATS hydrological model to simulate the behavior of soil moisture. The finds show that is possible to implement an hydrological model by means of soil moisture information use and an equation of calibration by Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).

  12. Translating hydrologically-relevant variables from the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Greenland Analog Project hydrologic modeling domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallot, Dorothée; Applegate, Patrick; Pettersson, Rickard

    2013-04-01

    Projecting future climate and ice sheet development requires sophisticated models and extensive field observations. Given the present state of our knowledge, it is very difficult to say what will happen with certainty. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the possibility that a new ice sheet might form over Scandinavia in the far distant future cannot be excluded. The growth of a new Scandinavian Ice Sheet would have important consequences for buried nuclear waste repositories. The Greenland Analogue Project, initiated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), is working to assess the effects of a possible future ice sheet on groundwater flow by studying a constrained domain in Western Greenland by field measurements (including deep bedrock drilling in front of the ice sheet) combined with numerical modeling. To address the needs of the GAP project, we interpolated results from an ensemble of ice sheet model runs to the smaller and more finely resolved modeling domain used in the GAP project's hydrologic modeling. Three runs have been chosen with three fairly different positive degree-day factors among those that reproduced the modern ice margin at the borehole position. The interpolated results describe changes in hydrologically-relevant variables over two time periods, 115 ka to 80 ka, and 20 ka to 1 ka. In the first of these time periods, the ice margin advances over the model domain; in the second time period, the ice margin retreats over the model domain. The spatially-and temporally dependent variables that we treated include the ice thickness, basal melting rate, surface mass balance, basal temperature, basal thermal regime (frozen or thawed), surface temperature, and basal water pressure. The melt flux is also calculated.

  13. Calibration by Hydrological Response Unit of a National Hydrologic Model to Improve Spatial Representation and Distribution of Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, P. A., II

    2015-12-01

    The U. S. Geological Survey is developing a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support consistent hydrologic modeling across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) simulates daily hydrologic and energy processes in watersheds, and is used for the NHM application. For PRMS each watershed is divided into hydrologic response units (HRUs); by default each HRU is assumed to have a uniform hydrologic response. The Geospatial Fabric (GF) is a database containing initial parameter values for input to PRMS and was created for the NHM. The parameter values in the GF were derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire CONUS. The NHM application is composed of more than 100,000 HRUs from the GF. Selected parameter values commonly are adjusted by basin in PRMS using an automated calibration process based on calibration targets, such as streamflow. Providing each HRU with distinct values that captures variability within the CONUS may improve simulation performance of the NHM. During calibration of the NHM by HRU, selected parameter values are adjusted for PRMS based on calibration targets, such as streamflow, snow water equivalent (SWE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). Simulated SWE, AET, and runoff were compared to value ranges derived from multiple sources (e.g. the Snow Data Assimilation System, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (i.e. MODIS) Global Evapotranspiration Project, the Simplified Surface Energy Balance model, and the Monthly Water Balance Model). This provides each HRU with a distinct set of parameter values that captures the variability within the CONUS, leading to improved model performance. We present simulation results from the NHM after preliminary calibration, including the results of basin-level calibration for the NHM using: 1) default initial GF parameter values, and 2) parameter values calibrated by HRU.

  14. Use of hydrological modelling and isotope techniques in Guvenc basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinbilek, D.

    1991-07-01

    The study covers the work performed under Project No. 335-RC-TUR-5145 entitled ''Use of Hydrologic Modelling and Isotope Techniques in Guvenc Basin'' and is an initial part of a program for estimating runoff from Central Anatolia Watersheds. The study presented herein consists of mainly three parts: 1) the acquisition of a library of rainfall excess, direct runoff and isotope data for Guvenc basin; 2) the modification of SCS model to be applied to Guvenc basin first and then to other basins of Central Anatolia for predicting the surface runoff from gaged and ungaged watersheds; and 3) the use of environmental isotope technique in order to define the basin components of streamflow of Guvenc basin. 31 refs, figs and tabs

  15. Hydrologic Modeling of Conservation Farming Practices on the Palouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wie, J.; Adam, J. C.; Ullman, J.

    2009-12-01

    The production of dryland crops such as wheat and barley in a semi-arid region requires a reliable and adequate water supply. This supply of water available for crop use is of heightened importance in areas such as the Palouse region of eastern Washington and northern Idaho where the majority of annual rainfall occurs during the winter months and must be retained in the soil through the dry summer growing season. Farmers can increase conservation of water at the field and watershed scales through the adoption of best management practices that incorporate tillage and crop residue management. This research analyzes conservation farming practices that may be implemented by representing them in a watershed-scale hydrologic model in order to determine whether these practices will effectively save water so that a stable crop yield may be insured. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) is applied and calibrated to represent the physical changes to infiltration, evaporation, and runoff that result from altered soil and vegetation characteristics brought on by management practices. The model is calibrated with field observations at the basin scale as well as the point scale over individual plots that are under various implementations of conservation management scenarios. Conservation practices are accounted for in DHSVM by adjusting input parameters such as the porosity, roughness, and hydraulic conductivity of the soil to characterize varying levels of tillage. Vegetation parameters such as leaf area index and albedo are altered to represent different amounts of crop residue left on the field through the winter months. After calibration, the model is applied over the entire basin under scenarios representing traditional agricultural methods and a region-wide shift to conservation practices. The resulting water balance suggests that there is a potential to retain water in the seed-zone during the winter months by decreasing evaporation and runoff through

  16. GIS embedded hydrological modeling: the SID&GRID project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsi, I.; Rossetto, R.; Schifani, C.

    2012-04-01

    The SID&GRID research project, started April 2010 and funded by Regione Toscana (Italy) under the POR FSE 2007-2013, aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) for water resource management and planning based on open source and public domain solutions. In order to quantitatively assess water availability in space and time and to support the planning decision processes, the SID&GRID solution consists of hydrological models (coupling 3D existing and newly developed surface- and ground-water and unsaturated zone modeling codes) embedded in a GIS interface, applications and library, where all the input and output data are managed by means of DataBase Management System (DBMS). A graphical user interface (GUI) to manage, analyze and run the SID&GRID hydrological models based on open source gvSIG GIS framework (Asociación gvSIG, 2011) and a Spatial Data Infrastructure to share and interoperate with distributed geographical data is being developed. Such a GUI is thought as a "master control panel" able to guide the user from pre-processing spatial and temporal data, running the hydrological models, and analyzing the outputs. To achieve the above-mentioned goals, the following codes have been selected and are being integrated: 1. Postgresql/PostGIS (PostGIS, 2011) for the Geo Data base Management System; 2. gvSIG with Sextante (Olaya, 2011) geo-algorithm library capabilities and Grass tools (GRASS Development Team, 2011) for the desktop GIS; 3. Geoserver and Geonetwork to share and discover spatial data on the web according to Open Geospatial Consortium; 4. new tools based on the Sextante GeoAlgorithm framework; 5. MODFLOW-2005 (Harbaugh, 2005) groundwater modeling code; 6. MODFLOW-LGR (Mehl and Hill 2005) for local grid refinement; 7. VSF (Thoms et al., 2006) for the variable saturated flow component; 8. new developed routines for overland flow; 9. new algorithms in Jython integrated in gvSIG to compute the net rainfall rate reaching the soil surface, as input for

  17. Hydrology model evaluation at the Hanford Nuclear Waste Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-04-01

    One and two-dimensional flow and contaminant transport computer models have been developed at Hanford to assess the rate and direction of contaminant movement from waste disposal sites. The primary objective of this work was to evaluate the potential improvement in accuracy that a three-dimensional model might offer over the simpler one and two-dimensional models. INTERA's hydrology contaminant transport model was used for this evaluation. Although this study was conceptual in nature, an attempt was made to relate it as closely as possible to Hanford conditions. Two-dimensional model runs were performed over the period of 1968 to 1973 using estimates of waste discharge flows, tritium concentrations, vertically averaged values of aquifer properties and boundary conditions. The well test interpretation runs confirmed the applicability of the areal hydraulic conductivity distribution. Velocity fields calculated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models and surface concentration profiles calculated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models show significant differences. Vertical concentration profiles calculated by a three-dimensional model show better qualitative agreement with the limited observed concentration profile data supplied by ARHCO

  18. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  19. FEATURES OF GEODEFORMATION CHANGES OF NEAR SURFACE SEDIMENTARY ROCKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Larionov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The results of investigations of the deformation process in the near surface sedimentary rocks, which has been carried out in a seismically active region of Kamchatka peninsular since 2007,are presented. The peculiarity of the experiments on the registration of geodeformations is the application of a laser deformograph-interferometer constructed according to the Michelson interferometer scheme.

  20. Near-Surface Seismic Velocity Data: A Computer Program For ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A computer program (NESURVELANA) has been developed in Visual Basic Computer programming language to carry out a near surface velocity analysis. The method of analysis used includes: Algorithms design and Visual Basic codes generation for plotting arrival time (ms) against geophone depth (m) employing the ...

  1. Geophysical imaging of near-surface structure using electromagnetic and seismic waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongping

    This thesis includes three different studies of geophysical imaging: (1) inference of plume moments from tomograms with cross-hole radar; (2) simulated annealing inversion for near-surface shear-wave velocity structure with microtremor measurements; and (3) time-lapse GPR imaging of water movement in the vadose zone. Although these studies involve different geophysical approaches, they are linked by a common theme---using geophysical imaging to understand hydrologic phenomena or subsurface structure. My first study in this thesis is concerned with the identification of plume moments from geophysical tomograms. Previously geophysical imaging has been applied to characterize contaminant plume migration in groundwater, and to determine plume mass, extent, velocity, and shape. Although tomograms have been used for quantitative inference of plume moments, the reliability of these inferred moments is poorly understood. In general, tomograms represent blurry and blunted images of subsurface properties, as a consequence of limited data acquisition geometry, measurement error, and the effects of regularization. In this thesis, I investigated the effect of tomographic resolution on the inference of plume moments from tomograms. I presented a new approach to quantify the resolution of inferred moments, drawing on concepts from conventional geophysical image appraisal, and also image reconstruction from orthogonal moments. This new approach is demonstrated by synthetic examples in radar tomography. My results indicated that moments calculated from tomograms are subject to substantial error and bias. For example, for many practical survey geometries, crosshole radar tomography (1) is incapable of resolving the lateral center of mass, and (2) severely underpredicts total mass. The degree of bias and error varies spatially over the tomogram, in a complicated manner, as a result of spatially variable resolution. These findings have important implications for the quantitative use

  2. Near-surface eddy dynamics in the Southern Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilisa Trani

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC is a crucial component of the global ocean conveyor belt, acting as a zonal link among the major ocean basins but, to some extent, limiting meridional exchange and tending to isolate the ocean south of it from momentum and heat income. In this work we investigate one of the most important mechanisms contributing to the poleward transfer of properties in the Southern Ocean, that is the eddy component of the dynamics. For this particular purpose, observations obtained from near-surface drifters have been used: they represent a very useful data set to analyse the eddy field because of their ability to catch a large number of scales of motion while providing a quasi-synoptic coverage of the investigated area. Estimates of the eddy heat and momentum fluxes are carried out using data taken from the Global Drifter Program databank; they refer to Surface Velocity Program drifter trajectories collected in the area south of 35°S between 1995 and 2006. Eddy kinetic energies, variance ellipses, momentum and heat fluxes have been calculated using the pseudo-Eulerian method, showing patterns in good agreement with those present in the literature based on observational and model data, although there are some quantitative differences. The eddy fluxes have been separated into their rotational and divergent portions, the latter being responsible for the meridional transports. The associated zonal and depth-exponentially integrated meridional heat transport exhibits values spanning over a range between -0.4 PW and –1.1 PW in the ACC region, consistent with previous estimates.

  3. On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-01-01

    Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

  4. Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. K. Westerberg

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models will normally depend on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, are challenged by problems including: (1 uncertain discharge data, (2 variable sensitivity of different performance measures to different flow magnitudes, (3 influence of unknown input/output errors and (4 inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. This paper explores a calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs to address these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs on the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested – based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application, e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the method appears less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than previous use of limits of

  5. A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

    2011-12-01

    Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in

  6. Visualization in hydrological and atmospheric modeling and observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbig, C.; Rink, K.; Kolditz, O.

    2013-12-01

    In recent years, visualization of geoscientific and climate data has become increasingly important due to challenges such as climate change, flood prediction or the development of water management schemes for arid and semi-arid regions. Models for simulations based on such data often have a large number of heterogeneous input data sets, ranging from remote sensing data and geometric information (such as GPS data) to sensor data from specific observations sites. Data integration using such information is not straightforward and a large number of potential problems may occur due to artifacts, inconsistencies between data sets or errors based on incorrectly calibrated or stained measurement devices. Algorithms to automatically detect various of such problems are often numerically expensive or difficult to parameterize. In contrast, combined visualization of various data sets is often a surprisingly efficient means for an expert to detect artifacts or inconsistencies as well as to discuss properties of the data. Therefore, the development of general visualization strategies for atmospheric or hydrological data will often support researchers during assessment and preprocessing of the data for model setup. When investigating specific phenomena, visualization is vital for assessing the progress of the ongoing simulation during runtime as well as evaluating the plausibility of the results. We propose a number of such strategies based on established visualization methods that - are applicable to a large range of different types of data sets, - are computationally inexpensive to allow application for time-dependent data - can be easily parameterized based on the specific focus of the research. Examples include the highlighting of certain aspects of complex data sets using, for example, an application-dependent parameterization of glyphs, iso-surfaces or streamlines. In addition, we employ basic rendering techniques allowing affine transformations, changes in opacity as well

  7. Near Surface Stoichiometry in UO2: A Density Functional Theory Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianguo Yu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms of oxygen stoichiometry variation in UO2 at different temperature and oxygen partial pressure are important for understanding the dynamics of microstructure in these crystals. However, very limited experimental studies have been performed to understand the atomic structure of UO2 near surface and defect effects of near surface on stoichiometry in which the system can exchange atoms with the external reservoir. In this study, the near (110 surface relaxation and stoichiometry in UO2 have been studied with density functional theory (DFT calculations. On the basis of the point-defect model (PDM, a general expression for the near surface stoichiometric variation is derived by using DFT total-energy calculations and atomistic thermodynamics, in an attempt to pin down the mechanisms of oxygen exchange between the gas environment and defected UO2. By using the derived expression, it is observed that, under poor oxygen conditions, the stoichiometry of near surface is switched from hyperstoichiometric at 300 K with a depth around 3 nm to near-stoichiometric at 1000 K and hypostoichiometric at 2000 K. Furthermore, at very poor oxygen concentrations and high temperatures, our results also suggest that the bulk of the UO2 prefers to be hypostoichiometric, although the surface is near-stoichiometric.

  8. Comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments of the MACCii global reanalysis near surface ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Katragou, Eleni; Zanis, Prodromos; Melas, Dimitrios; Eskes, Henk; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Inness, Antje; Kapsomenakis, Ioannis; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf; Zerefos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    In this work we evaluate near surface ozone concentrations of the MACCii global reanalysis using measurements from the EMEP and AIRBASE database. The eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003-2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system (Inness et al., 2013). The study mainly focuses in the differences between the assimilated and the non-assimilated experiments and aims to identify and quantify any improvements achieved by adding data assimilation to the system. Results are analyzed in eight European sub-regions and region-specific Taylor plots illustrate the evaluation and the overall predictive skill of each experiment. The diurnal and annual cycles of near surface ozone are evaluated for both experiments. Furthermore ozone exposure indices for crop growth (AOT40), human health (SOMO35) and the number of days that 8-hour ozone averages exceeded 60ppb and 90ppb have been calculated for each station based on both observed and simulated data. Results indicate mostly improvement of the assimilated experiment with respect to the high near surface ozone concentrations, the diurnal cycle and range and the bias in comparison to the non-assimilated experiment. The limitations of the comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments for near surface ozone are also discussed.

  9. Advancing the Implementation of Hydrologic Models as Web-based Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahal, P.; Tarboton, D. G.; Castronova, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Advanced computer simulations are required to understand hydrologic phenomenon such as rainfall-runoff response, groundwater hydrology, snow hydrology, etc. Building a hydrologic model instance to simulate a watershed requires investment in data (diverse geospatial datasets such as terrain, soil) and computer resources, typically demands a wide skill set from the analyst, and the workflow involved is often difficult to reproduce. This work introduces a web-based prototype infrastructure in the form of a web application that provides researchers with easy to use access to complete hydrological modeling functionality. This includes creating the necessary geospatial and forcing data, preparing input files for a model by applying complex data preprocessing, running the model for a user defined watershed, and saving the results to a web repository. The open source Tethys Platform was used to develop the web app front-end Graphical User Interface (GUI). We used HydroDS, a webservice that provides data preparation processing capability to support backend computations used by the app. Results are saved in HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. The TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model served as the example for which we developed a complete hydrologic modeling service to demonstrate the approach. The final product is a complete modeling system accessible through the web to create input files, and run the TOPKAPI hydrologic model for a watershed of interest. We are investigating similar functionality for the preparation of input to Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Key Words: hydrologic modeling, web services, hydrologic information system, HydroShare, HydroDS, Tethys Platform

  10. Investigation of the transferability of hydrological models and a method to improve model calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Hartmann

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to find a model parameterization such that the hydrological model performs well even under different conditions, appropriate model performance measures have to be determined. A common performance measure is the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency. Usually it is calculated comparing observed and modelled daily values. In this paper a modified version is suggested in order to calibrate a model on different time scales simultaneously (days up to years. A spatially distributed hydrological model based on HBV concept was used. The modelling was applied on the Upper Neckar catchment, a mesoscale river in south western Germany with a basin size of about 4000 km2. The observation period 1961-1990 was divided into four different climatic periods, referred to as "warm", "cold", "wet" and "dry". These sub periods were used to assess the transferability of the model calibration and of the measure of performance. In a first step, the hydrological model was calibrated on a certain period and afterwards applied on the same period. Then, a validation was performed on the climatologically opposite period than the calibration, e.g. the model calibrated on the cold period was applied on the warm period. Optimal parameter sets were identified by an automatic calibration procedure based on Simulated Annealing. The results show, that calibrating a hydrological model that is supposed to handle short as well as long term signals becomes an important task. Especially the objective function has to be chosen very carefully.

  11. Near-surface temperature lapse rates in a mountainous catchment in the Chilean Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala; Schauwecker, S.; Pellicciotti, F.; McPhee, J. P.

    2011-12-01

    In mountainous areas, and in the Chilean Andes in particular, the irregular and sparse distribution of recording stations resolves insufficiently the variability of climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature and relative humidity. Assumptions about air temperature variability in space and time have a strong effect on the performance of hydrologic models that represent snow processes such as accumulation and ablation. These processes have large diurnal variations, and assumptions that average over longer time periods (days, weeks or months) may reduce the predictive capacity of these models under different climatic conditions from those for which they were calibrated. They also introduce large uncertainties when such models are used to predict processes with strong subdiurnal variability such as snowmelt dynamics. In many applications and modeling exercises, temperature is assumed to decrease linearly with elevation, using the free-air moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALR: 0.0065°C/m). Little evidence is provided for this assumption, however, and recent studies have shown that use of lapse rates that are uniform in space and constant in time is not appropriate. To explore the validity of this approach, near-surface (2 m) lapse rates were calculated and analyzed at different temporal resolution, based on a new data set of spatially distributed temperature sensors setup in a high elevation catchment of the dry Andes of Central Chile (approx. 33°S). Five minutes temperature data were collected between January 2011 and April 2011 in the Ojos de Agua catchment, using two Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) and 13 T-loggers (Hobo H8 Pro Temp with external data logger), ranging in altitude from 2230 to 3590 m.s.l.. The entire catchment was snow free during our experiment. We use this unique data set to understand the main controls over temperature variability in time and space, and test whether lapse rates can be used to describe the spatial variations of air

  12. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  13. Applying Hillslope Hydrology to Bridge between Ecosystem and Grid-Scale Processes within an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subin, Z. M.; Sulman, B. N.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

    2013-12-01

    alternative parameterizations of hillslope geometry, macroporosity, and surface runoff / inundation, and to the choice of global topographic dataset and groundwater hydraulic conductivity distribution. Simulated groundwater dynamics among hillslopes tend to cluster into three regimes of wet and well-drained, wet but poorly-drained, and dry. In the base model configuration, near-surface gridcell-mean water tables exist in an excessively large area compared to observations, including large areas of the Eastern U.S. and Northern Europe. However, in better-drained areas, the decrease in water table depth along the hillslope gradient allows for realistic increases in ecosystem water availability and soil carbon downslope. The inclusion of subgrid hydrology can increase the equilibrium 0-2 m global soil carbon stock by a large factor, due to the nonlinear effect of anoxia. We conclude that this innovative modeling framework allows for the inclusion of hillslope-scale processes and the potential for wetland dynamics in an ESM without need for a high-resolution 3-dimensional groundwater model. Future work will include investigating the potential for future changes in land carbon fluxes caused by the effects of changing hydrological regime, particularly in peatland-rich areas poorly treated by current ESMs.

  14. Land surface modelling in hydrology and meteorology – lessons learned from the Baltic Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. Graham

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available By both tradition and purpose, the land parameterization schemes of hydrological and meteorological models differ greatly. Meteorologists are concerned primarily with solving the energy balance, whereas hydrologists are most interested in the water balance. Meteorological climate models typically have multi-layered soil parameterisation that solves temperature fluxes numerically with diffusive equations. The same approach is carried over to a similar treatment of water transport. Hydrological models are not usually so interested in soil temperatures, but must provide a reasonable representation of soil moisture to get runoff right. To treat the heterogeneity of the soil, many hydrological models use only one layer with a statistical representation of soil variability. Such a hydrological model can be used on large scales while taking subgrid variability into account. Hydrological models also include lateral transport of water – an imperative if' river discharge is to be estimated. The concept of a complexity chain for coupled modelling systems is introduced, together with considerations for mixing model components. Under BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, a large-scale hydrological model of runoff in the Baltic Basin is used to review atmospheric climate model simulations. This incorporates both the runoff record and hydrological modelling experience into atmospheric model development. Results from two models are shown. A conclusion is that the key to improved models may be less complexity. Perhaps the meteorological models should keep their multi-layered approach for modelling soil temperature, but add a simpler, yet physically consistent, hydrological approach for modelling snow processes and water transport in the soil. Keywords: land surface modelling; hydrological modelling; atmospheric climate models; subgrid variability; Baltic Basin

  15. Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

    2012-04-01

    With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

  16. Urban Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling - Resolution Modeling Comparison for Water Quantity and Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, T. J.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization presents challenging water resource problems for communities worldwide. The hydromodifications associated with urbanization results in increased runoff rates and volumes and increased peak flows. These hydrologic changes can lead to increased erosion and stream destabilization, decreased evapotranspiration, decreased ground water recharge, increases in pollutant loading, and localized anthropogenic climate change or Urban Heat Islands. Stormwater represents a complex and dynamic component of the urban water cycle that requires careful mitigation. With the implementation of Phase II rules under the CWA, stormwater management is shifting from a drainage-efficiency focus to a natural systems focus. The natural system focus, referred to as Low Impact Development (LID), or Green Infrastructure, uses best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the impacts caused by urbanization hydromodification. Large-scale patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex and it is unclear what the large-scale impacts of green infrastructure are on the water cycle. High resolution physically based hydrologic models can be used to more accurately simulate the urban hydrologic cycle. These types of models tend to be more dynamic and allow for greater flexibility in evaluating and accounting for various hydrologic processes in the urban environment that may be lost with lower resolution conceptual models. We propose to evaluate the effectiveness of high resolution models to accurately represent and determine the urban hydrologic cycle with the overall goal of being able to accurately assess the impacts of LID BMPs in urban environments. We propose to complete a rigorous model intercomparison between ParFlow and FLO-2D. Both of these models can be scaled to higher resolutions, allow for rainfall to be spatially and temporally input, and solve the shallow water equations. Each model is different in the way it accounts for infiltration, initial abstraction losses

  17. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  18. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data erros

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.; Vrugt, J.A.; Beek, van P.H.; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2015-01-01

    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

  19. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weiland, Frederiek C. Sperna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L. ) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2015-01-01

    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

  20. Importance of hydrological parameters in contaminant transport modeling in a terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuduki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi

    2007-01-01

    A grid type multi-layered distributed parameter model for calculating discharge in a watershed was described. Model verification with our field observation resulted in different sets of hydrological parameter values, all of which reproduced the observed discharge. The effect of those varied hydrological parameters on contaminant transport calculation was examined and discussed by simulation of event water transfer. (author)

  1. Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Savenije, H.H.G.; Bastidas, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper shows that instability of hydrological system representation in response to different pieces of information and associated prediction uncertainty is a function of model complexity. After demonstrating the connection between unstable model representation and model complexity, complexity is

  2. Disinformative data in large-scale hydrological modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kauffeldt

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale hydrological modelling has become an important tool for the study of global and regional water resources, climate impacts, and water-resources management. However, modelling efforts over large spatial domains are fraught with problems of data scarcity, uncertainties and inconsistencies between model forcing and evaluation data. Model-independent methods to screen and analyse data for such problems are needed. This study aimed at identifying data inconsistencies in global datasets using a pre-modelling analysis, inconsistencies that can be disinformative for subsequent modelling. The consistency between (i basin areas for different hydrographic datasets, and (ii between climate data (precipitation and potential evaporation and discharge data, was examined in terms of how well basin areas were represented in the flow networks and the possibility of water-balance closure. It was found that (i most basins could be well represented in both gridded basin delineations and polygon-based ones, but some basins exhibited large area discrepancies between flow-network datasets and archived basin areas, (ii basins exhibiting too-high runoff coefficients were abundant in areas where precipitation data were likely affected by snow undercatch, and (iii the occurrence of basins exhibiting losses exceeding the potential-evaporation limit was strongly dependent on the potential-evaporation data, both in terms of numbers and geographical distribution. Some inconsistencies may be resolved by considering sub-grid variability in climate data, surface-dependent potential-evaporation estimates, etc., but further studies are needed to determine the reasons for the inconsistencies found. Our results emphasise the need for pre-modelling data analysis to identify dataset inconsistencies as an important first step in any large-scale study. Applying data-screening methods before modelling should also increase our chances to draw robust conclusions from subsequent

  3. Bayesian analysis of data and model error in rainfall-runoff hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G.

    2004-12-01

    A major unresolved issue in the identification and use of conceptual hydrologic models is realistic description of uncertainty in the data and model structure. In particular, hydrologic parameters often cannot be measured directly and must be inferred (calibrated) from observed forcing/response data (typically, rainfall and runoff). However, rainfall varies significantly in space and time, yet is often estimated from sparse gauge networks. Recent work showed that current calibration methods (e.g., standard least squares, multi-objective calibration, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) ignore forcing uncertainty and assume that the rainfall is known exactly. Consequently, they can yield strongly biased and misleading parameter estimates. This deficiency confounds attempts to reliably test model hypotheses, to generalize results across catchments (the regionalization problem) and to quantify predictive uncertainty when the hydrologic model is extrapolated. This paper continues the development of a Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology for the calibration and identification of hydrologic models, which explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in both the forcing and response data, and allows systematic model comparison based on residual model errors and formal Bayesian hypothesis testing (e.g., using Bayes factors). BATEA is based on explicit stochastic models for both forcing and response uncertainty, whereas current techniques focus solely on response errors. Hence, unlike existing methods, the BATEA parameter equations directly reflect the modeler's confidence in all the data. We compare several approaches to approximating the parameter distributions: a) full Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and b) simplified approaches based on linear approximations. Studies using synthetic and real data from the US and Australia show that BATEA systematically reduces the parameter bias, leads to more meaningful model fits and allows model comparison taking

  4. Hydrological model for the transport of radioisotope in surface water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adoboah, E.K.

    2011-01-01

    The use of radioisotopes has gained grounds in Ghana as a result of the numerous benefits that could be derived from it. In Ghana, radioisotope materials are used for various purposes in a number of institutions. However, improper disposal of the waste poses threat to the environment. To evaluate the environmental impact of radioisotope pollution, mathematical models play a major role in predicting the pollution level in any medium. This study is concerned with the hydrological model for the transport of radioactive material in the river. The model was composed by employing partial differential equations, describing relevant physical processes evolution (water level, velocities and dissolved substances concentrations) that occurs in water bodies. The mass conservation and momentum laws, state equation and state transport equations are equation system basis. The explicit central difference scheme in space and a forward difference method in time were used for the evaluation of the generalized transport equation, the Advection-Dispersion Equation. A Matlab code was developed to predict the concentration of the radioactive contaminant at any particular time along the river and in a reservoir. The model was able to simulate accurately the various levels of radionuclide concentration changes in the flowing rivers as the flows are augmented by tributary inflows. (au)

  5. Modelling Peatland Hydrology: Three cases from Northern Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querner, E.P.; Mioduszewski, W.; Povilaitis, A.; Slesicka, A.

    2010-01-01

    Many of the peatlands that used to extend over large parts of Northern Europe have been reclaimed for agriculture. Human influence continues to have a major impact on the hydrology of those that remain, affecting river flow and groundwater levels. In order to understand this hydrology it is

  6. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Yu, X.; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Ch.; Krám, P.; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 90, part B (2016), s. 90-101 ISSN 0098-3004 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Uncertainty * Evapotranspiration * Forest management * PIHM * Biome-BGC Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 2.533, year: 2016

  7. HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENT MODELING USING THE BASINS NON-POINT SOURCE MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Non-Point Source Model (Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran, or HSPF) within the EPA Office of Water's BASINS watershed modeling system was used to simulate streamflow and total suspended solids within Contentnea Creek, North Carolina, which is a tributary of the Neuse Rive...

  8. Upscaling from research watersheds: an essential stage of trustworthy general-purpose hydrologic model building

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, J. P.; Semenova, O.; Restrepo, P. J.

    2011-12-01

    Highly instrumented research watersheds provide excellent opportunities for investigating hydrologic processes. A danger, however, is that the processes observed at a particular research watershed are too specific to the watershed and not representative even of the larger scale watershed that contains that particular research watershed. Thus, models developed based on those partial observations may not be suitable for general hydrologic use. Therefore demonstrating the upscaling of hydrologic process from research watersheds to larger watersheds is essential to validate concepts and test model structure. The Hydrograph model has been developed as a general-purpose process-based hydrologic distributed system. In its applications and further development we evaluate the scaling of model concepts and parameters in a wide range of hydrologic landscapes. All models, either lumped or distributed, are based on a discretization concept. It is common practice that watersheds are discretized into so called hydrologic units or hydrologic landscapes possessing assumed homogeneous hydrologic functioning. If a model structure is fixed, the difference in hydrologic functioning (difference in hydrologic landscapes) should be reflected by a specific set of model parameters. Research watersheds provide the possibility for reasonable detailed combining of processes into some typical hydrologic concept such as hydrologic units, hydrologic forms, and runoff formation complexes in the Hydrograph model. And here by upscaling we imply not the upscaling of a single process but upscaling of such unified hydrologic functioning. The simulation of runoff processes for the Dry Creek research watershed, Idaho, USA (27 km2) was undertaken using the Hydrograph model. The information on the watershed was provided by Boise State University and included a GIS database of watershed characteristics and a detailed hydrometeorological observational dataset. The model provided good simulation results in

  9. Hydrologic characterization for Spring Creek and hydrologic budget and model scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Norton, Parker A.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks to characterize hydrologic information relevant to management of water resources associated with Sheridan Lake, which is formed by a dam on Spring Creek. This effort consisted primarily of characterization of hydrologic data for a base period of 1962 through 2006, development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake for this timeframe, and development of an associated model for simulation of storage deficits and drawdown in Sheridan Lake for hypothetical release scenarios from the lake. Historically, the dam has been operated primarily as a 'pass-through' system, in which unregulated outflows pass over the spillway; however, the dam recently was retrofitted with an improved control valve system that would allow controlled releases of about 7 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) or less from a fixed depth of about 60 feet (ft). Development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake involved compilation, estimation, and characterization of data sets for streamflow, precipitation, and evaporation. The most critical data need was for extrapolation of available short-term streamflow records for Spring Creek to be used as the long-term inflow to Sheridan Lake. Available short-term records for water years (WY) 1991-2004 for a gaging station upstream from Sheridan Lake were extrapolated to WY 1962-2006 on the basis of correlations with streamflow records for a downstream station and for stations located along two adjacent streams. Comparisons of data for the two streamflow-gaging stations along Spring Creek indicated that tributary inflow is approximately proportional to the intervening drainage area, which was used as a means of estimating tributary inflow for the hydrologic budget. Analysis of evaporation data shows that sustained daily rates may exceed maximum monthly rates by a factor of about two. A long-term (1962-2006) hydrologic budget was developed for computation of reservoir outflow from

  10. Current status of the near surface repository in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrei, V.; Glodeanu, F.; Rotaru, I.

    2000-01-01

    The radioactive waste management at the Cernavoda NPP is based on collection, pretreatment and storage of all solid wastes. The disposal of operational and decommissioning wastes has been evaluated, based on the results of a research and development programme. A near surface disposal facility was selected and a siting process was implemented. The status of this project and its prospective are discussed in the paper. (author)

  11. Erosion of surface and near surface disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-06-01

    A literature search was undertaken to identify existing data and analytical procedures regarding the processes of gully erosion. The applicability of the available information to the problems of gully erosion potential at surface and near surface disposal sites is evaluated. It is concluded that the existing knowledge regarding gully erosion is insufficient to develop procedures to ensure the long-term stability of disposal sites. Recommendations for further research are presented. 46 refs

  12. Global-scale evaluation of 22 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Beck

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available We undertook a comprehensive evaluation of 22 gridded (quasi-global (sub-daily precipitation (P datasets for the period 2000–2016. Thirteen non-gauge-corrected P datasets were evaluated using daily P gauge observations from 76 086 gauges worldwide. Another nine gauge-corrected datasets were evaluated using hydrological modeling, by calibrating the HBV conceptual model against streamflow records for each of 9053 small to medium-sized ( <  50 000 km2 catchments worldwide, and comparing the resulting performance. Marked differences in spatio-temporal patterns and accuracy were found among the datasets. Among the uncorrected P datasets, the satellite- and reanalysis-based MSWEP-ng V1.2 and V2.0 datasets generally showed the best temporal correlations with the gauge observations, followed by the reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and NCEP-CFSR and the satellite- and reanalysis-based CHIRP V2.0 dataset, the estimates based primarily on passive microwave remote sensing of rainfall (CMORPH V1.0, GSMaP V5/6, and TMPA 3B42RT V7 or near-surface soil moisture (SM2RAIN-ASCAT, and finally, estimates based primarily on thermal infrared imagery (GridSat V1.0, PERSIANN, and PERSIANN-CCS. Two of the three reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-55 unexpectedly obtained lower trend errors than the satellite datasets. Among the corrected P datasets, the ones directly incorporating daily gauge data (CPC Unified, and MSWEP V1.2 and V2.0 generally provided the best calibration scores, although the good performance of the fully gauge-based CPC Unified is unlikely to translate to sparsely or ungauged regions. Next best results were obtained with P estimates directly incorporating temporally coarser gauge data (CHIRPS V2.0, GPCP-1DD V1.2, TMPA 3B42 V7, and WFDEI-CRU, which in turn outperformed the one indirectly incorporating gauge data through another multi-source dataset (PERSIANN-CDR V1R1. Our results highlight large differences in estimation accuracy

  13. Hydrologic model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Steven P.; Rewis, Diane L.; Traum, Jonathan A.

    2015-01-01

    Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association. Management issues and goals in the basin include an area in the lower part of the basin that requires drainage of the shallow water table to sustain agriculture, intra- and inter-basin migration of poor-quality groundwater, and efficient management of surface and groundwater supplies. To aid in the evaluation of water-management strategies, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association have developed a hydrologic model that simulates monthly groundwater and surface-water flow as governed by aquifer-system properties, annual and seasonal variations in climate, surface-water flow and availability, water use, and land use. The model was constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-modeling software MODFLOW-OWHM with the Farm Process.

  14. GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, L.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Adhikari, S.; Nilsson, J.; Blewitt, G.

    2018-03-01

    We provide a new analysis of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) with the goal of assembling the model uncertainty statistics required for rigorously extracting trends in surface mass from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Such statistics are essential for deciphering sea level, ocean mass, and hydrological changes because the latter signals can be relatively small (≤2 mm/yr water height equivalent) over very large regions, such as major ocean basins and watersheds. With abundant new >7 year continuous measurements of vertical land motion (VLM) reported by Global Positioning System stations on bedrock and new relative sea level records, our new statistical evaluation of GIA uncertainties incorporates Bayesian methodologies. A unique aspect of the method is that both the ice history and 1-D Earth structure vary through a total of 128,000 forward models. We find that best fit models poorly capture the statistical inferences needed to correctly invert for lower mantle viscosity and that GIA uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty ascribed to trends from 14 years of GRACE data in polar regions.

  15. Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batandjieva, B.; Torres-Vidal, C.

    2002-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated research program ''Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities'' (ISAM) has developed improved safety assessment methodology for near surface disposal facilities. The program has been underway for three years and has included around 75 active participants from 40 countries. It has also provided examples for application to three safety cases--vault, Radon type and borehole radioactive waste disposal facilities. The program has served as an excellent forum for exchange of information and good practices on safety assessment approaches and methodologies used worldwide. It also provided an opportunity for reaching broad consensus on the safety assessment methodologies to be applied to near surface low and intermediate level waste repositories. The methodology has found widespread acceptance and the need for its application on real waste disposal facilities has been clearly identified. The ISAM was finalized by the end of 2000, working material documents are available and an IAEA report will be published in 2002 summarizing the work performed during the three years of the program. The outcome of the ISAM program provides a sound basis for moving forward to a new IAEA program, which will focus on practical application of the safety assessment methodologies to different purposes, such as licensing radioactive waste repositories, development of design concepts, upgrading existing facilities, reassessment of operating repositories, etc. The new program will also provide an opportunity for development of guidance on application of the methodology that will be of assistance to both safety assessors and regulators

  16. Electronic structures near surfaces of perovskite type oxides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hara, Toru

    2005-01-01

    This work is intended to draw attention to the origin of the electronic structures near surfaces of perovskite type oxides. Deep states were observed by ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopic measurements. The film thickness dependent electronic structures near surfaces of (Ba 0.5 Sr 0.5 )TiO 3 thin films were observed. As for the 117-308 nm thick (Ba 0.5 Sr 0.5 )TiO 3 films, deep states were lying at 0.20, 0.55, and 0.85 eV below the quasi-fermi level, respectively. However, as for the 40 nm thick (Ba 0.5 Sr 0.5 )TiO 3 film, the states were overlapped. The A-site doping affected electronic structures near surfaces of SrTiO 3 single crystals. No evolution of deep states in non-doped SrTiO 3 single crystal was observed. However, the evolution of deep states in La-doped SrTiO 3 single crystal was observed

  17. visCOS: An R-package to evaluate model performance of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Wesemann, Johannes; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    The evaluation of model performance is a central part of (hydrological) modelling. Much attention has been given to the development of evaluation criteria and diagnostic frameworks. (Klemeš, 1986; Gupta et al., 2008; among many others). Nevertheless, many applications exist for which objective functions do not yet provide satisfying summaries. Thus, the necessity to visualize results arises in order to explore a wider range of model capacities, be it strengths or deficiencies. Visualizations are usually devised for specific projects and these efforts are often not distributed to a broader community (e.g. via open source software packages). Hence, the opportunity to explicitly discuss a state-of-the-art presentation technique is often missed. We therefore present a comprehensive R-package for evaluating model performance by visualizing and exploring different aspects of hydrological time-series. The presented package comprises a set of useful plots and visualization methods, which complement existing packages, such as hydroGOF (Zambrano-Bigiarini et al., 2012). It is derived from practical applications of the hydrological models COSERO and COSEROreg (Kling et al., 2014). visCOS, providing an interface in R, represents an easy-to-use software package for visualizing and assessing model performance and can be implemented in the process of model calibration or model development. The package provides functions to load hydrological data into R, clean the data, process, visualize, explore and finally save the results in a consistent way. Together with an interactive zoom function of the time series, an online calculation of the objective functions for variable time-windows is included. Common hydrological objective functions, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency, can also be evaluated and visualized in different ways for defined sub-periods like hydrological years or seasonal sections. Many hydrologists use long-term water-balances as a

  18. Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Seibert

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers play an important role in high-mountain hydrology. While changing glacier areas are considered of highest importance for the understanding of future changes in runoff, glaciers are often only poorly represented in hydrological models. Most importantly, the direct coupling between the simulated glacier mass balances and changing glacier areas needs feasible solutions. The use of a complex glacier model is often not possible due to data and computational limitations. The Δh parameterization is a simple approach to consider the spatial variation of glacier thickness and area changes. Here, we describe a conceptual implementation of the Δh parameterization in the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light, which also allows for the representation of glacier advance phases and for comparison between the different versions of the implementation. The coupled glacio-hydrological simulation approach, which could also be implemented in many other semi-distributed hydrological models, is illustrated based on an example application.

  19. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  20. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  1. Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables from the GLDAS models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winska, Malgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Salstein, David

    2017-12-01

    Continental hydrological loading by land water, snow and ice is a process that is important for the full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study, we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (as hydrological angular momentum, HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of the land-based hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of variables from different hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt and soil moisture, on polar motion excitations at annual and short-term timescales. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion are determined using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. Furthermore, we use time-variable gravity field solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine the hydrological mass effects on polar motion excitation. We first conduct an intercomparison of the maps of variations of regional hydrological excitation functions, timing and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs. Next, we estimate the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation as a residual by subtracting the contributions of atmospheric angular momentum and oceanic angular momentum. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared with those hydrological signals determined from residuals of the observed polar motion excitation series. The results will help us understand the relative importance of polar motion excitation within the individual hydrological processes, based on hydrological modeling. This method will allow us to estimate how well the polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges can be closed.

  2. Inspection and verification of waste packages for near surface disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Extensive experience has been gained with various disposal options for low and intermediate level waste at or near surface disposal facilities. Near surface disposal is based on proven and well demonstrated technologies. To ensure the safety of near surface disposal facilities when available technologies are applied, it is necessary to control and assure the quality of the repository system's performance, which includes waste packages, engineered features and natural barriers, as well as siting, design, construction, operation, closure and institutional controls. Recognizing the importance of repository performance, the IAEA is producing a set of technical publications on quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) for waste disposal to provide Member States with technical guidance and current information. These publications cover issues on the application of QA/QC programmes to waste disposal, long term record management, and specific QA/QC aspects of waste packaging, repository design and R and D. Waste package QA/QC is especially important because the package is the primary barrier to radionuclide release from a disposal facility. Waste packaging also involves interface issues between the waste generator and the disposal facility operator. Waste should be packaged by generators to meet waste acceptance requirements set for a repository or disposal system. However, it is essential that the disposal facility operator ensure that waste packages conform with disposal facility acceptance requirements. Demonstration of conformance with disposal facility acceptance requirements can be achieved through the systematic inspection and verification of waste packages at both the waste generator's site and at the disposal facility, based on a waste package QA/QC programme established by the waste generator and approved by the disposal operator. However, strategies, approaches and the scope of inspection and verification will be somewhat different from country to country

  3. Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

  4. Modelling of green roofs' hydrologic performance using EPA's SWMM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burszta-Adamiak, E; Mrowiec, M

    2013-01-01

    Green roofs significantly affect the increase in water retention and thus the management of rain water in urban areas. In Poland, as in many other European countries, excess rainwater resulting from snowmelt and heavy rainfall contributes to the development of local flooding in urban areas. Opportunities to reduce surface runoff and reduce flood risks are among the reasons why green roofs are more likely to be used also in this country. However, there are relatively few data on their in situ performance. In this study the storm water performance was simulated for the green roofs experimental plots using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) with Low Impact Development (LID) Controls module (version 5.0.022). The model consists of many parameters for a particular layer of green roofs but simulation results were unsatisfactory considering the hydrologic response of the green roofs. For the majority of the tested rain events, the Nash coefficient had negative values. It indicates a weak fit between observed and measured flow-rates. Therefore complexity of the LID module does not affect the increase of its accuracy. Further research at a technical scale is needed to determine the role of the green roof slope, vegetation cover and drying process during the inter-event periods.

  5. A coupled mechanical/hydrologic model for WIPP shaft seals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehgartner, B.

    1991-06-01

    Effective sealing of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) shafts will be required to isolate defense-generated transuranic wastes from the accessible environment. Shafts penetrate water-bearing hard rock formations before entering a massive creeping-salt formation (Salado) where the WIPP is located. Short and long-term seals are planned for the shafts. Short-term seals, a composite of concrete and bentonite, will primarily be located in the hard rock formations separating the water-bearing zones from the Salado Formation. These seals will limit water flow to the underlying long-term seals in the Salado. The long-term seals will consist of lengthly segments of initially unsaturated crushed salt. Creep closure of the shaft will consolidate unsaturated crushed salt, thereby reducing its permeability. However, water passing through the upper short-term seals and brine inherent to the salt host rock itself will eventually saturate the crushed salt and consolidation could be inhibited. Before saturating, portions of the crushed salt in the shafts are expected to consolidate to a permeability equivalent to the salt host rock, thereby effectively isolating the waste from the overlying water-bearing formations. A phenomenological model is developed for the coupled mechanical/hydrologic behavior of sealed WIPP shafts. The model couples creep closure of the shaft, crushed salt consolidation, and the associated reduction in permeability with Darcy's law for saturated fluid flow to predict the overall permeability of the shaft seal system with time. 17 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  6. An SVM model with hybrid kernels for hydrological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C.; Wang, H.; Zhao, X.; Xie, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been widely applied to the forecast of climate/weather and its impact on other environmental variables such as hydrologic response to climate/weather. When using SVM, the choice of the kernel function plays the key role. Conventional SVM models mostly use one single type of kernel function, e.g., radial basis kernel function. Provided that there are several featured kernel functions available, each having its own advantages and drawbacks, a combination of these kernel functions may give more flexibility and robustness to SVM approach, making it suitable for a wide range of application scenarios. This paper presents such a linear combination of radial basis kernel and polynomial kernel for the forecast of monthly flowrate in two gaging stations using SVM approach. The results indicate significant improvement in the accuracy of predicted series compared to the approach with either individual kernel function, thus demonstrating the feasibility and advantages of such hybrid kernel approach for SVM applications.

  7. Electrical properties of polyimides containing a near-surface deposit of silver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rancourt, J. D.; Porta, G. M.; Taylor, L. T.

    1987-01-01

    Films containing a surface or near-surface deposit of palladium, gold or copper metal as well as tin, cobalt, copper, or lithium oxides have been prepared by dissolving appropriate metal salts into poly(amide-acid)/N,N-dimethylacetamide solutions and curing the solvent cast films to temperatures up to 300 C. This preparation technique has been extended to evaluate the thermal, spectroscopic, and electrical characteristics of condensation polyimide films modified with silver nitrate. A near-surface deposit of metallic silver results but the reflective surface has high electrical resistivity (sheet resistivity) due to a polymer coating or overlayer above the metal. Details pertaining to the silver nitrate modified condensation polyimides are presented. Also, the applicability of the structural model and electrical model previously proposed for the cobalt oxide system are assessed.

  8. The ability of a GCM-forced hydrological model to reproduce global discharge variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Kwadijk, J.C.J.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are often used to investigate hydrological impacts of climate change. However GCM data are known to have large biases, especially for precipitation. In this study the usefulness of GCM data for hydrological studies, with focus on discharge variability

  9. Validation of a mesoscale hydrological model in a small-scale forested catchment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Tesař, Miroslav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2016), s. 27-41 ISSN 1998-9563 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02021451 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : hydrological modelling * small catchment * soil moisture * subsurface lateral flow * SWIM Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.754, year: 2016

  10. Using expert knowledge of the hydrological system to constrain multi-objective calibration of SWAT models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The SWAT model is a helpful tool to predict hydrological processes in a study catchment and their impact on the river discharge at the catchment outlet. For reliable discharge predictions, a precise simulation of hydrological processes is required. Therefore, SWAT has to be calibrated accurately to ...

  11. Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Stein, A.; Tabari, H.; Abghari, H.; Jalalkamali, N.; Hosseinipour, E.Z.; Singh, V.P.

    2013-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied

  12. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    X. Shi; P.E. Thornton; D.M. Ricciuto; P J. Hanson; J. Mao; Stephen Sebestyen; N.A. Griffiths; G. Bisht

    2015-01-01

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth...

  13. The Effect of Modeling and Visualization Resources on Student Understanding of Physical Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Jilll A.; Castillo, Adam J.; Cardenas, M. Bayani

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the effect of modeling and visualization resources on upper-division, undergraduate and graduate students' performance on an open-ended assessment of their understanding of physical hydrology. The students were enrolled in one of five sections of a physical hydrology course. In two of the sections, students completed homework…

  14. Improving the spatial representation of basin hydrology and flow processes in the SWAT model

    OpenAIRE

    Rathjens, Hendrik

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation aims at improving the spatial representation of basin hydrology and flow processes in the SWAT model. Die vorliegende Dissertation stellt die methodischen Grundlage zur räumlich differenzierten Modellierung mit dem Modell SWAT dar.

  15. Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

  16. airGR: an R-package suitable for large sample hydrology presenting a suite of lumped hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, G.; Delaigue, O.; Coron, L.; Perrin, C.; Andreassian, V.

    2016-12-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2015; Coron et al., 2016), called airGR, to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A (Mouehli et al., 2006), - the monthly GR2M (Mouehli, 2003) models, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J (Perrin et al., 2003), GR5J (Le Moine, 2008) and GR6J (Pushpalatha et al., 2011), - the hourly GR4H model (Mathevet, 2005), - a degree-day snow module CemaNeige (Valéry et al., 2014). The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is already used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and

  17. Time Changes of the European Gravity Field from GRACE: A Comparison with Ground Measurements from Superconducting Gravimeters and with Hydrology Model Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinderer, J.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Crossley, D.; Boy, J.-P.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the time-variable gravity changes in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 18 month duration from April 2002 to October 2003. Gravity anomaly maps are retrieved in Central Europe from the monthly satellite solutions we compare the fields according to various truncation levels (typically between degree 10 and 20) of the initial fields (expressed in spherical harmonics to degree 120). For these different degrees, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the time-variable gravity field leads us to its main spatial and temporal characteristics. We show that the dominant signal is found to be annual with an amplitude and a phase both in agreement with predictions in Europe modeled using snow and soil-moisture variations from recent hydrology models. We compare these GRACE gravity field changes to surface gravity observations from 6 superconducting gravimeters of the GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) European sub-network, with a special attention to loading corrections. Initial results suggest that all 3 data sets (GRACE, hydrology and GGP) are responding to annual changes in near-surface water in Europe of a few microGal (at length scales of approx.1000 km) that show a high value in winter and a summer minimum. We also point out that the GRACE gravity field evolution seems to indicate that there is a trend in gravity between summer 2002 and summer 2003 which can be related to the 2003 heatwave in Europe and its hydrological consequences (drought). Despite the limited time span of our analysis and the uncertainties in retrieving a regional solution from the network of gravimeters, the calibration and validation aspects of the GRACE data processing based on the annual hydrology cycle in Europe are in progress.

  18. A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine

    2016-01-01

    A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a

  19. Hydrological Modeling Reproducibility Through Data Management and Adaptors for Model Interoperability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Because of a lack of centralized planning and no widely-adopted standards among hydrological modeling research groups, research communities, and the data management teams meant to support research, there is chaos when it comes to data formats, spatio-temporal resolutions, ontologies, and data availability. All this makes true scientific reproducibility and collaborative integrated modeling impossible without some glue to piece it all together. Our Virtual Watershed Integrated Modeling System provides the tools and modeling framework hydrologists need to accelerate and fortify new scientific investigations by tracking provenance and providing adaptors for integrated, collaborative hydrologic modeling and data management. Under global warming trends where water resources are under increasing stress, reproducible hydrological modeling will be increasingly important to improve transparency and understanding of the scientific facts revealed through modeling. The Virtual Watershed Data Engine is capable of ingesting a wide variety of heterogeneous model inputs, outputs, model configurations, and metadata. We will demonstrate one example, starting from real-time raw weather station data packaged with station metadata. Our integrated modeling system will then create gridded input data via geostatistical methods along with error and uncertainty estimates. These gridded data are then used as input to hydrological models, all of which are available as web services wherever feasible. Models may be integrated in a data-centric way where the outputs too are tracked and used as inputs to "downstream" models. This work is part of an ongoing collaborative Tri-state (New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho) NSF EPSCoR Project, WC-WAVE, comprised of researchers from multiple universities in each of the three states. The tools produced and presented here have been developed collaboratively alongside watershed scientists to address specific modeling problems with an eye on the bigger picture of

  20. Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

  1. Coupling Radar Rainfall to Hydrological Models for Water Abstraction Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asfaw, Alemayehu; Shucksmith, James; Smith, Andrea; MacDonald, Ken

    2015-04-01

    The impacts of climate change and growing water use are likely to put considerable pressure on water resources and the environment. In the UK, a reform to surface water abstraction policy has recently been proposed which aims to increase the efficiency of using available water resources whilst minimising impacts on the aquatic environment. Key aspects to this reform include the consideration of dynamic rather than static abstraction licensing as well as introducing water trading concepts. Dynamic licensing will permit varying levels of abstraction dependent on environmental conditions (i.e. river flow and quality). The practical implementation of an effective dynamic abstraction strategy requires suitable flow forecasting techniques to inform abstraction asset management. Potentially the predicted availability of water resources within a catchment can be coupled to predicted demand and current storage to inform a cost effective water resource management strategy which minimises environmental impacts. The aim of this work is to use a historical analysis of UK case study catchment to compare potential water resource availability using modelled dynamic abstraction scenario informed by a flow forecasting model, against observed abstraction under a conventional abstraction regime. The work also demonstrates the impacts of modelling uncertainties on the accuracy of predicted water availability over range of forecast lead times. The study utilised a conceptual rainfall-runoff model PDM - Probability-Distributed Model developed by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - set up in the Dove River catchment (UK) using 1km2 resolution radar rainfall as inputs and 15 min resolution gauged flow data for calibration and validation. Data assimilation procedures are implemented to improve flow predictions using observed flow data. Uncertainties in the radar rainfall data used in the model are quantified using artificial statistical error model described by Gaussian distribution and

  2. Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Aihui; Li, Duo; Hua, Wei

    2018-03-01

    Change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle is critical for assessments of hydrological activity, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies investigated the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle change mostly based on in situ observations and satellite monitoring. Here numerical simulation method is tested to estimate the long-term change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to recent climate warming for its application to predictions. Four simulations are performed at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution from 1979 to 2009 using the Community Land Model version 4.5, each driven by one of the four atmospheric forcing data sets (i.e., one default Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction [CRUNCEP] and three newly developed Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim). The observations from 299 weather stations in both Russia and China are employed to validate the simulated results. The results show that all simulations reasonably reproduce the observed variations in the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration (the correlation coefficients range from 0.47 to 0.99, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies range from 0.19 to 0.98). Part of the simulations also exactly simulate the trends of the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration. Of the four simulations, the results from the simulation using the CRUNCEP data set show the best overall agreement with the in situ observations, indicating that the CRUNCEP data set could be preferentially considered as the basic atmospheric forcing data set for future prediction. The simulated area-averaged annual freeze duration shortened by 8.03 days on average from 1979 to 2009, with an uncertainty (one standard deviation) of 0.67 days caused by the different atmospheric forcing data sets. These

  3. Frozen soil parameterization in a distributed biosphere hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Wang

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a frozen soil parameterization has been modified and incorporated into a distributed biosphere hydrological model (WEB-DHM. The WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then rigorously evaluated in a small cold area, the Binngou watershed, against the in-situ observations from the WATER (Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research. First, by using the original WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, the land surface parameters and two van Genuchten parameters were optimized using the observed surface radiation fluxes and the soil moistures at upper layers (5, 10 and 20 cm depths at the DY station in July. Second, by using the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme, two frozen soil parameters were calibrated using the observed soil temperature at 5 cm depth at the DY station from 21 November 2007 to 20 April 2008; while the other soil hydraulic parameters were optimized by the calibration of the discharges at the basin outlet in July and August that covers the annual largest flood peak in 2008. With these calibrated parameters, the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme was then used for a yearlong validation from 21 November 2007 to 20 November 2008. Results showed that the WEB-DHM with the frozen scheme has given much better performance than the WEB-DHM without the frozen scheme, in the simulations of soil moisture profile at the cold regions catchment and the discharges at the basin outlet in the yearlong simulation.

  4. Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and

  5. Using the object modeling system for hydrological model development and application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kralisch

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available State of the art challenges in sustainable management of water resources have created demand for integrated, flexible and easy to use hydrological models which are able to simulate the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the hydrological cycle with a sufficient degree of certainty. Existing models which have been de-veloped to fit these needs are often constrained to specific scales or purposes and thus can not be easily adapted to meet different challenges. As a solution for flexible and modularised model development and application, the Object Modeling System (OMS has been developed in a joint approach by the USDA-ARS, GPSRU (Fort Collins, CO, USA, USGS (Denver, CO, USA, and the FSU (Jena, Germany. The OMS provides a modern modelling framework which allows the implementation of single process components to be compiled and applied as custom tailored model assemblies. This paper describes basic principles of the OMS and its main components and explains in more detail how the problems during coupling of models or model components are solved inside the system. It highlights the integration of different spatial and temporal scales by their representation as spatial modelling entities embedded into time compound components. As an exam-ple the implementation of the hydrological model J2000 is discussed.

  6. A hydrochemical and isotopic case study around a near surface radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szanto, Zs.; Svingor, E.; Futo, I.; Palcsu, L.; Molnar, M.; Rinyu, L.

    2007-01-01

    As part of the site characterisation program for the near surface radioactive waste treatment and disposal facility (RWTDF) at Puespoekszilagy, Hungary, water quality and environmental isotope investigations have been carried out. Water samples for major ion chemistry, tritium, 14 C and stable isotope ratio measurements (δ 18 O, δD, δ 34 S, δ 13 C) were taken quarterly from the observation wells, the streams and the precipitation during the period 1999-2001. The chemical composition of groundwaters presented a continuous transition from waters situated on one side to waters on the top and on the other slope of the disposal suggesting the mixing of the three hydrochemical ''endmembers''. Most of δD and δ 18 O data were situated between GMWL and LMWL (δD = 7.2 x δ 18 O - 1 permille) with Oligocene aquifer presenting recharge of Pleistocene origin and water on the top and the gentle slope of the hill presenting recharge of Holocene origin. δ 34 S values of dissolved sulphates varied in a wide range (-14.2 permille to +5.4 permille). The tritium in precipitation varied between 4.4 and 18.1 TU with an annual weighted average of 10 ± 0.3 TU. The streams showed larger fluctuations than the wells, but the changes of δ 18 O, δD and T were small compared to those in precipitation (showing seasonal variation). Stable isotope, tritium and radiocarbon data proved that the replenishment of groundwater is slow on the steeper side and the direction of water movement is toward the gentle slope of the hill. It was judged that this path is the one that is most likely to give rise to high doses and, therefore, was used in the hydrological modelling of the safety assessment that followed the present work. The possibility that there may also be transport through the unsaturated zone and systems of perched water tables in layers 1 and 2 to both the Szilagyi and Nemedi streams cannot be excluded; the transport along these pathways is likely to be intermittent. (orig.)

  7. Lumped hydrological models is an Occam' razor for runoff modeling in large Russian Arctic basins

    OpenAIRE

    Ayzel Georgy

    2018-01-01

    This study is aimed to investigate the possibility of three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins for the modern period (1979-2014) in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil or vegetation cover properties of studied basins. We found limitations of model parameters calibration in ungauged basins using global optimization alg...

  8. Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

    2017-12-01

    A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also

  9. Probabilistic hydrological nowcasting using radar based nowcasting techniques and distributed hydrological models: application in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletti, Maria Laura; Pignone, Flavio; Rebora, Nicola; Silvestro, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    The exposure of the urban areas to flash-floods is particularly significant to Mediterranean coastal cities, generally densely-inhabited. Severe rainfall events often associated to intense and organized thunderstorms produced, during the last century, flash-floods and landslides causing serious damages to urban areas and in the worst events led to human losses. The temporal scale of these events has been observed strictly linked to the size of the catchments involved: in the Mediterranean area a great number of catchments that pass through coastal cities have a small drainage area (less than 100 km2) and a corresponding hydrologic response timescale in the order of a few hours. A suitable nowcasting chain is essential for the on time forecast of this kind of events. In fact meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation at the scale of these events, small both at spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) scales. Nowcasting models, covering the time interval of the following two hours starting from the observation try to extend the predictability limits of the forecasting models in support of real-time flood alert system operations. This work aims to present the use of hydrological models coupled with nowcasting techniques. The nowcasting model PhaSt furnishes an ensemble of equi-probable future precipitation scenarios on time horizons of 1-3 h starting from the most recent radar observations. The coupling of the nowcasting model PhaSt with the hydrological model Continuum allows to forecast the flood with a few hours in advance. In this way it is possible to generate different discharge prediction for the following hours and associated return period maps: these maps can be used as a support in the decisional process for the warning system.

  10. Measurements of the near-surface flow over a hill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosper, S. B.; Mobbs, S. D.; Gardiner, B. A.

    2002-10-01

    The near-surface flow over a hill with moderate slope and height comparable with the boundary-layer depth is investigated through field measurements of the mean flow (at 2 m), surface pressure, and turbulent momentum flux divergence between 8 and 15 m. The measurements were made along an east-west transect across the hill Tighvein (height 458 m, approximate width 8 km) on the Isle of Arran, south-west Scotland, during two separate periods, each of around three-weeks duration. Radiosonde ascents are used to determine the variation of a Froude number, FL = U/NL, where U is the wind speed at the middle-layer height, hm, N is the mean Brunt-Väisälä frequency below this height and L is a hill length-scale. Measurements show that for moderately stratified flows (for which FL 0.25) a minimum in the hill-induced surface-pressure perturbation occurs across the summit and this is accompanied by a maximum in the near-surface wind speed. In the more strongly stratified case (FL 0.25) the pressure field is more asymmetric and the lee-slope flow is generally stronger than on the windward slope. Such a flow pattern is qualitatively consistent with that predicted by stratified linear boundary-layer and gravity-wave theories. The near-surface momentum budget is analysed by evaluating the dominant terms in a Bernoulli equation suitable for turbulent flow. Measurements during periods of westerly flow are used to evaluate the dominant terms, and the equation is shown to hold to a reasonable approximation on the upwind slope of the hill and also on the downwind slope, away from the summit. Immediately downwind of the summit, however, the Bernoulli equation does not hold. Possible reasons for this, such as non-separated sheltering and flow separation, are discussed.

  11. Determination of near surface in-situ stresses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garritty, P.; Irvin, R.

    1983-06-01

    One of the major unknowns affecting aspects of underground construction and the geohydrology of rock masses is the magnitude and direction of the geostatic principal stresses in the earth's crust. This is particularly the case in near surface rocks where there are indications that high horizontal stresses may exist. The techniques, experiences and results of a preliminary rock stress measurement programme conducted at shallow depth in the Carnmenellis Granite, Cornwall, using C.S.I.R.O. triaxial hollow inclusion cells are described. (author)

  12. UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS FOR RAPID NEAR SURFACE GEOPHYSICAL MEASUREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. Stoll

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper looks at some of the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS options and deals with a magnetometer sensor system which might be of interest in conducting rapid near surface geophysical measurements. Few of the traditional airborne geophysical sensors are now capable of being miniaturized to sizes and payload within mini UAS limits (e.g. airborne magnetics, gamma ray spectrometer. Here the deployment of a fluxgate magnetometer mounted on an UAS is presented demonstrating its capability of detecting metallic materials that are buried in the soil. The effectiveness in finding ferrous objects (e.g. UXO, landslides is demonstrated in two case studies.

  13. Parsimonious Hydrologic and Nitrate Response Models For Silver Springs, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klammler, Harald; Yaquian-Luna, Jose Antonio; Jawitz, James W.; Annable, Michael D.; Hatfield, Kirk

    2014-05-01

    Silver Springs with an approximate discharge of 25 m3/sec is one of Florida's first magnitude springs and among the largest springs worldwide. Its 2500-km2 springshed overlies the mostly unconfined Upper Floridan Aquifer. The aquifer is approximately 100 m thick and predominantly consists of porous, fractured and cavernous limestone, which leads to excellent surface drainage properties (no major stream network other than Silver Springs run) and complex groundwater flow patterns through both rock matrix and fast conduits. Over the past few decades, discharge from Silver Springs has been observed to slowly but continuously decline, while nitrate concentrations in the spring water have enormously increased from a background level of 0.05 mg/l to over 1 mg/l. In combination with concurrent increases in algae growth and turbidity, for example, and despite an otherwise relatively stable water quality, this has given rise to concerns about the ecological equilibrium in and near the spring run as well as possible impacts on tourism. The purpose of the present work is to elaborate parsimonious lumped parameter models that may be used by resource managers for evaluating the springshed's hydrologic and nitrate transport responses. Instead of attempting to explicitly consider the complex hydrogeologic features of the aquifer in a typically numerical and / or stochastic approach, we use a transfer function approach wherein input signals (i.e., time series of groundwater recharge and nitrate loading) are transformed into output signals (i.e., time series of spring discharge and spring nitrate concentrations) by some linear and time-invariant law. The dynamic response types and parameters are inferred from comparing input and output time series in frequency domain (e.g., after Fourier transformation). Results are converted into impulse (or step) response functions, which describe at what time and to what magnitude a unitary change in input manifests at the output. For the

  14. Mass transfer of CO2 to groundwaters from a near-surface waste disposal site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caron, F.; Wilkinson, S.R.; Manni, G.; Torok, J.

    1995-01-01

    Gaseous 14 CO 2 originating from buried low-level radioactive wastes (LLRW) in a near-surface disposal site can be released to the environment via two major paths: gas-phase diffusion through soils to the atmosphere, and dissolution in groundwater, followed by aqueous migration. Aqueous migration would give the highest dose to an individual, especially if C-14 was converted to an organic form and ingested. Gaseous diffusion would give a lower dose, largely because of atmospheric dispersion and dilution. The objective of this study was to develop the capability to estimate which of the two paths will likely be dominant for typical near-surface disposal facilities. The main missing parameter for making this estimate was a mass-transfer coefficient (K L ) of 14 CO 2 to groundwaters, which was determined experimentally using a large sand box. The K L thus determined was approximately 10 to 20 times smaller than for an open liquid surface. This suggests that there is a potential resistance to mass transfer, probably caused by the capillary fringe. The value obtained was incorporated into a simple model of CO 2 transport around a typical near-surface disposal site. The model suggests that CO 2 transport via both gaseous release and aqueous migration paths are of similar magnitude for a repository located ∼2 m above the water table. (author). 11 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs

  15. Improving student comprehension of the interconnectivity of the hydrologic cycle with a novel 'hydrology toolbox', integrated watershed model, and companion textbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huning, L. S.; Margulis, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    Concepts in introductory hydrology courses are often taught in the context of process-based modeling that ultimately is integrated into a watershed model. In an effort to reduce the learning curve associated with applying hydrologic concepts to real-world applications, we developed and incorporated a 'hydrology toolbox' that complements a new, companion textbook into introductory undergraduate hydrology courses. The hydrology toolbox contains the basic building blocks (functions coded in MATLAB) for an integrated spatially-distributed watershed model that makes hydrologic topics (e.g. precipitation, snow, radiation, evaporation, unsaturated flow, infiltration, groundwater, and runoff) more user-friendly and accessible for students. The toolbox functions can be used in a modular format so that students can study individual hydrologic processes and become familiar with the hydrology toolbox. This approach allows such courses to emphasize understanding and application of hydrologic concepts rather than computer coding or programming. While topics in introductory hydrology courses are often introduced and taught independently or semi-independently, they are inherently interconnected. These toolbox functions are therefore linked together at the end of the course to reinforce a holistic understanding of how these hydrologic processes are measured, interconnected, and modeled. They are integrated into a spatially-distributed watershed model or numerical laboratory where students can explore a range of topics such as rainfall-runoff modeling, urbanization, deforestation, watershed response to changes in parameters or forcings, etc. Model output can readily be visualized and analyzed by students to understand watershed response in a real river basin or a simple 'toy' basin. These tools complement the textbook, each of which has been well received by students in multiple hydrology courses with various disciplinary backgrounds. The same governing equations that students have

  16. Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: estimates of present and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastick, Neal J.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Wylie, Bruce K.; Nield, Shawn J.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Finley, Andrew O.

    2015-01-01

    High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface and subsurface conditions to map nearsurface permafrost through decision and regression tree approaches that statistically and spatially extend field observations using remotely sensed imagery, climatic data, and thematic maps of a wide range of surface and subsurface biophysical characteristics. The data fusion approach generated medium-resolution (30-m pixels) maps of near-surface (within 1 m) permafrost, active-layer thickness, and associated uncertainty estimates throughout mainland Alaska. Our calibrated models (overall test accuracy of ~85%) were used to quantify changes in permafrost distribution under varying future climate scenarios assuming no other changes in biophysical factors. Models indicate that near-surface permafrost underlies 38% of mainland Alaska and that near-surface permafrost will disappear on 16 to 24% of the landscape by the end of the 21st Century. Simulations suggest that near-surface permafrost degradation is more probable in central regions of Alaska than more northerly regions. Taken together, these results have obvious implications for potential remobilization of frozen soil carbon pools under warmer temperatures. Additionally, warmer and drier conditions may increase fire activity and severity, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and carbon remobilization relative to climate alone. The mapping of permafrost distribution across Alaska is important for land-use planning, environmental assessments, and a wide-array of geophysical studies.

  17. Using models for the optimization of hydrologic monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, Michael N.; Hunt, Randall J.; Doherty, John E.; Reeves, Howard W.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrologists are often asked what kind of monitoring network can most effectively support science-based water-resources management decisions. Currently (2011), hydrologic monitoring locations often are selected by addressing observation gaps in the existing network or non-science issues such as site access. A model might then be calibrated to available data and applied to a prediction of interest (regardless of how well-suited that model is for the prediction). However, modeling tools are available that can inform which locations and types of data provide the most 'bang for the buck' for a specified prediction. Put another way, the hydrologist can determine which observation data most reduce the model uncertainty around a specified prediction. An advantage of such an approach is the maximization of limited monitoring resources because it focuses on the difference in prediction uncertainty with or without additional collection of field data. Data worth can be calculated either through the addition of new data or subtraction of existing information by reducing monitoring efforts (Beven, 1993). The latter generally is not widely requested as there is explicit recognition that the worth calculated is fundamentally dependent on the prediction specified. If a water manager needs a new prediction, the benefits of reducing the scope of a monitoring effort, based on an old prediction, may be erased by the loss of information important for the new prediction. This fact sheet focuses on the worth or value of new data collection by quantifying the reduction in prediction uncertainty achieved be adding a monitoring observation. This calculation of worth can be performed for multiple potential locations (and types) of observations, which then can be ranked for their effectiveness for reducing uncertainty around the specified prediction. This is implemented using a Bayesian approach with the PREDUNC utility in the parameter estimation software suite PEST (Doherty, 2010). The

  18. Integrating Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with Hydrological Modelling – Applicability and Limitations

    OpenAIRE

    Rajesh VijayKumar Kherde; Dr. Priyadarshi. H. Sawant

    2013-01-01

    The evolution of Geographic information systems (GIS) facilitated the use digital terrain data for topography based hydrological modelling. The use of spatial data for hydrological modelling emerged from the great capability of GIS tools to store and handle the data associated hydro-morphology of the basin. These models utilize the spatially variable terrain data for converting rainfall into surface runoff.Manual map manipulation has always posed difficulty in analysing and designing large sc...

  19. A Distributed Hydrological model Forced by DIMP2 Data and the WRF Mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayand, N. E.

    2010-12-01

    Forecasted warming over the next century will drastically reduce seasonal snowpack that provides 40% of the world’s drinking water. With increased climate warming, droughts may occur more frequently, which will increase society’s reliance on this same summer snowpack as a water supply. This study aims to reduce driving data errors that lead to poor simulations of snow ablation and accumulation, and streamflow. Results from the Distributed Hydrological Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (DMIP2) project using the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) highlighted the critical need for accurate driving data that distributed models require. Currently, the meteorological driving data for distributed hydrological models commonly rely on interpolation techniques between a network of observational stations, as well as historical monthly means. This method is limited by two significant issues: snowpack is stored at high elevations, where interpolation techniques perform poorly due to sparse observations, and historic climatological means may be unsuitable in a changing climate. Mesoscale models may provide a physically-based approach to supplement surface observations over high-elevation terrain. Initial results have shown that while temperature lapse rates are well represented by multiple mesoscale models, significant precipitation biases are dependent on the particular model microphysics. We evaluate multiple methods of downscaling surface variables from the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model that are then used to drive DHSVM over the North Fork American River basin in California. A comparison between each downscaled driving data set and paired DHSVM results to observations will determine how much improvement in simulated streamflow and snowpack are gained at the expense of each additional degree of downscaling. Our results from DMIP2 will be used as a benchmark for the best available DHSVM run using all available observational data. The

  20. Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) User's Manual; Version 1.43 for Watershed Modeling System 6.1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Downer, Charles W; Ogden, Fred L

    2006-01-01

    The need to simulate surface water flows in watersheds with diverse runoff production mechanisms has led to the development of the physically-based hydrologic model Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA...

  1. Near-surface temperature gradient in a coastal upwelling regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maske, H.; Ochoa, J.; Almeda-Jauregui, C. O.; Ruiz-de la Torre, M. C.; Cruz-López, R.; Villegas-Mendoza, J. R.

    2014-08-01

    In oceanography, a near homogeneous mixed layer extending from the surface to a seasonal thermocline is a common conceptual basis in physics, chemistry, and biology. In a coastal upwelling region 3 km off the coast in the Mexican Pacific, we measured vertical density gradients with a free-rising CTD and temperature gradients with thermographs at 1, 3, and 5 m depths logging every 5 min during more than a year. No significant salinity gradient was observed down to 10 m depth, and the CTD temperature and density gradients showed no pronounced discontinuity that would suggest a near-surface mixed layer. Thermographs generally logged decreasing temperature with depth with gradients higher than 0.2 K m-1 more than half of the time in the summer between 1 and 3 m, 3 and 5 m and in the winter between 1 and 3 m. Some negative temperature gradients were present and gradients were generally highly variable in time with high peaks lasting fractions of hours to hours. These temporal changes were too rapid to be explained by local heating or cooling. The pattern of positive and negative peaks might be explained by vertical stacks of water layers of different temperatures and different horizontal drift vectors. The observed near-surface gradient has implications for turbulent wind energy transfer, vertical exchange of dissolved and particulate water constituents, the interpretation of remotely sensed SST, and horizontal wind-induced transport.

  2. The Thermodynamics of Selenium Minerals in Near-Surface Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Krivovichev

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Selenium compounds are relatively rare as minerals; there are presently only 118 known mineral species. This work is intended to codify and systematize the data of mineral systems and the thermodynamics of selenium minerals, which are unstable (selenides or formed in near-surface environments (selenites, where the behavior of selenium is controlled by variations of the redox potential and the acidity of solutions at low temperatures and pressures. These parameters determine the migration of selenium and its precipitation as various solid phases. All selenium minerals are divided into four groups—native selenium, oxide, selenides, and oxysalts—anhydrous selenites (I and hydrous selenites and selenates (II. Within each of the groups, minerals are codified according to the minimum number of independent elements necessary to define the composition of the mineral system. Eh–pH diagrams were calculated and plotted using the Geochemist’s Workbench (GMB 9.0 software package. The Eh–pH diagrams of the Me–Se–H2O systems (where Me = Co, Ni, Fe, Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Hg, Ag, Bi, As, Sb, Al and Ca were plotted for the average contents of these elements in acidic waters in the oxidation zones of sulfide deposits. The possibility of the formation of Zn, Cd, Ag and Hg selenites under natural oxidation conditions in near surface environments is discussed.

  3. Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

    2018-05-01

    Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

  4. A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.

  5. Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-11-15

    This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM).

  6. The IAEA research project on improvement of safety assessment methodologies for near surface disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres-Vidal, C.; Graham, D.; Batandjieva, B.

    2002-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Research Coordinated Project on Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities (ISAM) was launched in November 1997 and it has been underway for three years. The ISAM project was developed to provide a critical evaluation of the approaches and tools used in long-term safety assessment of near surface repositories. It resulted in the development of a harmonised approach and illustrated its application by way of three test cases - vault, borehole and Radon (a particular range of repository designs developed within the former Soviet Union) type repositories. As a consequence, the ISAM project had over 70 active participants and attracted considerable interest involving around 700 experts from 72 Member States. The methodology developed, the test cases, the main lessons learnt and the conclusions have been documented and will be published in the form of an IAEA TECDOC. This paper presents the work of the IAEA on improvement of safety assessment methodologies for near surface waste disposal facilities and the application of these methodologies for different purposes in the individual stages of the repository development. The paper introduces the main objectives, activities and outcome of the ISAM project and summarizes the work performed by the six working groups within the ISAM programme, i.e. Scenario Generation and Justification, Modelling, Confidence Building, Vault, Radon Type Facility and Borehole test cases. (author)

  7. Findings and Challenges in Fine-Resolution Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Her, Y. G.

    2017-12-01

    Fine-resolution large-scale (FL) modeling can provide the overall picture of the hydrological cycle and transport while taking into account unique local conditions in the simulation. It can also help develop water resources management plans consistent across spatial scales by describing the spatial consequences of decisions and hydrological events extensively. FL modeling is expected to be common in the near future as global-scale remotely sensed data are emerging, and computing resources have been advanced rapidly. There are several spatially distributed models available for hydrological analyses. Some of them rely on numerical methods such as finite difference/element methods (FDM/FEM), which require excessive computing resources (implicit scheme) to manipulate large matrices or small simulation time intervals (explicit scheme) to maintain the stability of the solution, to describe two-dimensional overland processes. Others make unrealistic assumptions such as constant overland flow velocity to reduce the computational loads of the simulation. Thus, simulation efficiency often comes at the expense of precision and reliability in FL modeling. Here, we introduce a new FL continuous hydrological model and its application to four watersheds in different landscapes and sizes from 3.5 km2 to 2,800 km2 at the spatial resolution of 30 m on an hourly basis. The model provided acceptable accuracy statistics in reproducing hydrological observations made in the watersheds. The modeling outputs including the maps of simulated travel time, runoff depth, soil water content, and groundwater recharge, were animated, visualizing the dynamics of hydrological processes occurring in the watersheds during and between storm events. Findings and challenges were discussed in the context of modeling efficiency, accuracy, and reproducibility, which we found can be improved by employing advanced computing techniques and hydrological understandings, by using remotely sensed hydrological

  8. Integrating topography, hydrology and rock structure in weathering rate models of spring watersheds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacheco, F.A.L.; Weijden, C.H. van der

    2012-01-01

    Weathering rate models designed for watersheds combine chemical data of discharging waters with morphologic and hydrologic parameters of the catchments. At the spring watershed scale, evaluation of morphologic parameters is subjective due to difficulties in conceiving the catchment geometry.

  9. Interpolation of Missing Precipitation Data Using Kernel Estimations for Hydrologic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyojin Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the main factor that drives hydrologic modeling; therefore, missing precipitation data can cause malfunctions in hydrologic modeling. Although interpolation of missing precipitation data is recognized as an important research topic, only a few methods follow a regression approach. In this study, daily precipitation data were interpolated using five different kernel functions, namely, Epanechnikov, Quartic, Triweight, Tricube, and Cosine, to estimate missing precipitation data. This study also presents an assessment that compares estimation of missing precipitation data through Kth nearest neighborhood (KNN regression to the five different kernel estimations and their performance in simulating streamflow using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT hydrologic model. The results show that the kernel approaches provide higher quality interpolation of precipitation data compared with the KNN regression approach, in terms of both statistical data assessment and hydrologic modeling performance.

  10. Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 11, Methods and Tools: Computational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  11. Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Tool for hydrologic modeling and watershed assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using basic, easily attainable GIS data, AGWA provides a simple, direct, and repeatable methodology for hydrologic model setup, execution, and visualization. AGWA experiences activity from over 170 countries. It l has been downloaded over 11,000 times.

  12. Assessing sequential data assimilation techniques for integrating GRACE data into a hydrological model

    KAUST Repository

    Khaki, M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Kuhn, M.; Awange, J.; Forootan, E.; van Dijk, A.; Schumacher, M.; Pattiaratchi, C.

    2017-01-01

    The time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS) products from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been increasingly used in recent years to improve the simulation of hydrological models by applying data assimilation techniques

  13. Downscaling near-surface soil moisture from field to plot scale: A comparative analysis under different environmental conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasta, Paolo; Penna, Daniele; Brocca, Luca; Zuecco, Giulia; Romano, Nunzio

    2018-02-01

    Indirect measurements of field-scale (hectometer grid-size) spatial-average near-surface soil moisture are becoming increasingly available by exploiting new-generation ground-based and satellite sensors. Nonetheless, modeling applications for water resources management require knowledge of plot-scale (1-5 m grid-size) soil moisture by using measurements through spatially-distributed sensor network systems. Since efforts to fulfill such requirements are not always possible due to time and budget constraints, alternative approaches are desirable. In this study, we explore the feasibility of determining spatial-average soil moisture and soil moisture patterns given the knowledge of long-term records of climate forcing data and topographic attributes. A downscaling approach is proposed that couples two different models: the Eco-Hydrological Bucket and Equilibrium Moisture from Topography. This approach helps identify the relative importance of two compound topographic indexes in explaining the spatial variation of soil moisture patterns, indicating valley- and hillslope-dependence controlled by lateral flow and radiative processes, respectively. The integrated model also detects temporal instability if the dominant type of topographic dependence changes with spatial-average soil moisture. Model application was carried out at three sites in different parts of Italy, each characterized by different environmental conditions. Prior calibration was performed by using sparse and sporadic soil moisture values measured by portable time domain reflectometry devices. Cross-site comparisons offer different interpretations in the explained spatial variation of soil moisture patterns, with time-invariant valley-dependence (site in northern Italy) and hillslope-dependence (site in southern Italy). The sources of soil moisture spatial variation at the site in central Italy are time-variant within the year and the seasonal change of topographic dependence can be conveniently

  14. Improved Ground Hydrology Calculations for Global Climate Models (GCMs): Soil Water Movement and Evapotranspiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

    1988-09-01

    A physically based ground hydrology model is developed to improve the land-surface sensible and latent heat calculations in global climate models (GCMs). The processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff are explicitly included in the model. The amount of detail in the hydrologic calculations is restricted to a level appropriate for use in a GCM, but each of the aforementioned processes is modeled on the basis of the underlying physical principles. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM are used as inputs for off-line tests of the ground hydrology model in four 8° × 10° regions (Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India). Soil and vegetation input parameters are calculated as area-weighted means over the 8° × 10° gridhox. This compositing procedure is tested by comparing resulting hydrological quantities to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1° × 1° cells which comprise the 8° × 10° gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure works well except in the Sahel where lower soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce more variability in hydrological quantities, indicating that a resolution better than 8° × 10° is needed for that region. Modeled annual and diurnal hydrological cycles compare well with observations for Brazil, where real world data are available. The sensitivity of the ground hydrology model to several of its input parameters was tested; it was found to be most sensitive to the fraction of land covered by vegetation and least sensitive to the soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential.

  15. Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia – status and challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Chen; W. Li; G. Fang; Z. Li

    2017-01-01

    Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeli...

  16. Hydrologic modeling for water resource assessment in a developing country: the Rwanda case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve McNulty; Erika Cohen Mack; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell

    2016-01-01

    Accurate water resources assessment using hydrologic models can be a challenge anywhere, but particularly for developing countries with limited financial and technical resources. Developing countries could most benefit from the water resource planning capabilities that hydrologic models can provide, but these countries are least likely to have the data needed to run ...

  17. Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

  18. Hydrologically induced orientation variations of a tri-axial Earth's principal axes based on satellite-gravimetric and hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shen Wenbin

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The Earth is a tri-axial body, with unequal principal inertia moments, A, B and C. The corresponding principal axes a, b and c are determined by the mass distribution of the Earth, and their orientations vary with the mass redistribution. In this study, the hydrologically induced variations are estimated on the basis of satellite gravimetric data, including those from satellite laser ranging (SLR and gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE, and hydrological models from global land data assimilation system (GLDAS. The longitude variations of a and b are mainly related to the variations of the spherical harmonic coefficients C¯22 and S¯22, which have been estimated to be consisting annual variations of about 1. 6 arc seconds and 1. 8 arc seconds, respectively, from gravity data. This result is confirmed by land surface water storage provided by the GLDAS model. If the atmospheric and oceanic signals are removed from the spherical harmonic coefficients C¯21 and S¯21, the agreement of the orientation series for c becomes poor, possibly due to the inaccurate background models used in pre-processing of the satellite gravimetric data. Determination of the orientation variations may provide a better understanding of various phenomena in the study of the rotation of a tri-axial Earth.

  19. Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

    1988-01-01

    A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.

  20. Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.

    2009-01-01

    The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

  1. Near-surface flow of volcanic gases on Io

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.W.; Thomas, P.C.

    1980-01-01

    Significant near-surface flow of gas several hundred kilometers from Pele (Plume 1) on Io is indicated by a series of bright, elongate albedo markings. Particles produced at small, local vents are apparently carried as much as 70 km farther 'downwind' from Pele. The gas densities and velocities necessary to suspend 0.1 to 10 micron particles at such a distance imply mass flow rates of 10 to the 7th - 10 to the 9th g/sec. Such flow rates are consistent with other estimates of mass transport by the plume. The large flow rates so far from the source allow an estimate of the rate of resurfacing of Io by lava flows and pyroclastics that is independent of estimates based on meteorite flux or on the amount of solids carried within the plumes themselves

  2. Near-surface segregation in irradiated Ni3Si

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, W.; Rehn, L.E.; Wiedersich, H.

    1982-01-01

    The radiation-induced growth of Ni 3 Si films on the surfaces of Ni(Si) alloys containing = 3 Si phase has been observed. Post-irradiation depth profiling by Auger electron spectroscopy, as well as in situ analysis by high-resolution Rutherford backscattering spectrometry, reveals Si-enrichment at the surfaces of Ni(Si) alloys in excess of stoichiometric Ni 3 Si during irradiation. Thin, near-surface layers with silicon concentrations of 28 to 30 at.% are observed, and even higher Si enrichment is found in the first few atom layers. Transmission electron microscopy and selected area-electron diffraction were employed to characterize these Si-enriched layers. A complex, multiple-spot diffraction pattern is observed superposed on the diffraction pattern of ordered Ni 3 Si. The d-spacings obtained from the extra spots are consistent with those of the orthohexagonal intermetallic compound Ni 5 Si 2 . (author)

  3. Fluctuation diamagnetism near surfaces and twinning planes in superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burmistrov, S.N.; Dubovskii, L.B.

    1984-01-01

    Fluctuations of the magnetic moment and of the specific heat near surfaces and twinning planes in superconductors are studied. Fluctuations near a surface yield an additional contribution to the effect of the usual bulk fluctuations on the diamagnetic moment. Such an additional contribution has a singularity near a temperature T/sub c/3(H), which is higher than the bulk superconducting transition temperature in a magnetic field T/sub c/2(H). Depending on the strength of the magnetic field, the singularity of the additional contribution to the magnetic moment can be either logarithmic (strong fields) or of square-root type (weak fields). Experiments which could reveal the aforementioned anomalous behavior are discussed in detail

  4. Near-surface analysis with nuclear reactions and scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, K.L.; Hirvonen, J.K.

    1974-01-01

    Very useful information about the elemental composition of solids in the surface and near-surface regions can be obtained with small accelerators and suitable auxiliary apparatus. Two methods which produce data from which quantitative concentration depth profiles can be constructed and which have been used extensively at this laboratory are: nuclear resonance profiling and Rutherford backscattering. The first method is described in detail. Data are given on profiles of Al and Al + Na films implanted on silicon substrates. Rutherford backscattering spectra for chromium implanted into silicon dioxide are used to illustrate the improved depth sensitivity that can be obtained with a magnetic spectrometer in depth concentration profiles of heavy impurities relative to that obtainable with a conventional semiconductor detector

  5. Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

  6. Hydrologic characteristics of freshwater mussel habitat: novel insights from modeled flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, C. Ashton; Eddy, Michele; Kwak, Thomas J.; Cope, W. Gregory; Augspurger, Tom

    2018-01-01

    The ability to model freshwater stream habitat and species distributions is limited by the spatially sparse flow data available from long-term gauging stations. Flow data beyond the immediate vicinity of gauging stations would enhance our ability to explore and characterize hydrologic habitat suitability. The southeastern USA supports high aquatic biodiversity, but threats, such as landuse alteration, climate change, conflicting water-resource demands, and pollution, have led to the imperilment and legal protection of many species. The ability to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitat conditions, including hydrologic