WorldWideScience

Sample records for ncar climate system

  1. NCAR's Experimental Real-time Convection-allowing Ensemble Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, C. S.; Romine, G. S.; Sobash, R.; Fossell, K.

    2016-12-01

    Since April 2015, the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Laboratory, in collaboration with NCAR's Computational Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), has been producing daily, real-time, 10-member, 48-hr ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (http://ensemble.ucar.edu). These computationally-intensive, next-generation forecasts are produced on the Yellowstone supercomputer, have been embraced by both amateur and professional weather forecasters, are widely used by NCAR and university researchers, and receive considerable attention on social media. Initial conditions are supplied by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software and the forecast model is NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; both WRF and DART are community tools. This presentation will focus on cutting-edge research results leveraging the ensemble dataset, including winter weather predictability, severe weather forecasting, and power outage modeling. Additionally, the unique design of the real-time analysis and forecast system and computational challenges and solutions will be described.

  2. An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun

    2017-12-07

    The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations.

  3. COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai-Chen, C.

    Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate

  4. An investigation of the Archean climate using the NCAR CCm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, G.S.

    1991-01-01

    The Archean (2.5 to 3.8 billion years ago) is of interest climatically, because of the 'Faint-Young Sun Paradox', which can be characterized by the Sun's reduced energy output. This lower energy output leads to a frozen planet if the climate existed as it does today. But, the geologic record shows that water was flowing at the earth's surface 3.8 billion years ago. Energy Balance Models (EBMs) and one-dimensional radiative-convective (1DRC) models predict a frozen planet for this time period, unless large carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations exist in the Archean atmosphere. The goal is to explore the Archean climate with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Community Climate Model (CCM). The search for negative feedbacks to explain the 'Faint-Young Sun Paradox' is the thrust of this study. This study undertakes a series of sensitivity simulations which first explores individual factors that may be important for the Archean. They include rotation rate, lower solar luminosity, and land fraction. Then, these climatic factors along with higher CO2 concentrations are combined into a set of experiments. A faster rotation rate may have existed in the Archean. The faster rotation rate simulations show warmer globally averaged surface temperatures that are caused by a 20 percent decrease in the total cloud fraction. The smaller cloud fraction is brought about by dynamical changes. A global ocean is a possibility for the Archean. A global ocean simulation predicts 4 K increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to the present-day climate control

  5. Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version le as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Technical note. [NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickinson, R.E.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Kennedy, P.J.

    1993-08-01

    A comprehensive model of land-surface processes has been under development suitable for use with various National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Models (GCMs). Special emphasis has been given to describing properly the role of vegetation in modifying the surface moisture and energy budgets. The result of these efforts has been incorporated into a boundary package, referred to as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The current frozen version, BATS1e is a piece of software about four thousand lines of code that runs as an offline version or coupled to the Community Climate Model (CCM).

  6. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.; Collins, W.; Deaven, D.; Gandin, L.; Iredell, M.; Saha, S.; White, G.; Woollen, J.; Zhu, Y.; Leetmaa, A.; Reynolds, B.; Chelliah, M.; Ebisuzaki, W.; Higgins, W.; Janowiak, J.; Mo, K. C.; Ropelewski, C.; Wang, J.; Jenne, Roy; Joseph, Dennis

    1996-03-01

    The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted "reanalysis") to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957-96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system.The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided by different countries and organizations. The system has been designed with advanced quality control and monitoring components, and can produce 1 mon of reanalysis per day on a Cray YMP/8 supercomputer. Different types of output archives are being created to satisfy different user needs, including a "quick look" CD-ROM (one per year) with six tropospheric and stratospheric fields available twice daily, as well as surface, top-of-the-atmosphere, and isentropic fields. Reanalysis information and selected output is also available on-line via the Internet (http//:nic.fb4.noaa.gov:8000). A special CD-ROM, containing 13 years of selected observed, daily, monthly, and climatological data from the NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis, is included with this issue. Output variables are classified into four classes, depending on the degree to which they are influenced by the observations and/or the model. For example, "C" variables (such as precipitation and surface fluxes) are completely determined

  7. ARCAS (ACACIA Regional Climate-data Access System) -- a Web Access System for Climate Model Data Access, Visualization and Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkarinen, C.; Brown, D.; Callahan, J.; hankin, S.; de Koningh, M.; Middleton-Link, D.; Wigley, T.

    2001-05-01

    A Web-based access system to climate model output data sets for intercomparison and analysis has been produced, using the NOAA-PMEL developed Live Access Server software as host server and Ferret as the data serving and visualization engine. Called ARCAS ("ACACIA Regional Climate-data Access System"), and publicly accessible at http://dataserver.ucar.edu/arcas, the site currently serves climate model outputs from runs of the NCAR Climate System Model for the 21st century, for Business as Usual and Stabilization of Greenhouse Gas Emission scenarios. Users can select, download, and graphically display single variables or comparisons of two variables from either or both of the CSM model runs, averaged for monthly, seasonal, or annual time resolutions. The time length of the averaging period, and the geographical domain for download and display, are fully selectable by the user. A variety of arithmetic operations on the data variables can be computed "on-the-fly", as defined by the user. Expansions of the user-selectable options for defining analysis options, and for accessing other DOD-compatible ("Distributed Ocean Data System-compatible") data sets, residing at locations other than the NCAR hardware server on which ARCAS operates, are planned for this year. These expansions are designed to allow users quick and easy-to-operate web-based access to the largest possible selection of climate model output data sets available throughout the world.

  8. Impact of Amazon deforestation on climate simulations using the NCAR CCM2/BATS model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Model validation and results are briefly presented for a simulation of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. This initial study is made using assumptions regarding deforestation similar to those in earlier studies with several versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) couples to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The model used is a revised version of the NCAR CCM Version 2 coupled to BATS Version 1e. This paper discusses the portion of validation dealing with the distribution of precipitation; the simulation displays very good agreement with observed rainfall rates for the austral summer. Preliminary results from an 8-year simulation of deforestation are similar to that of previous studies. Annual precipitation and evaporation are reduced, while surface air temperatures show a slight increase. A substantial bimodal pattern appears in the results, with the Amazon decrease of precipitation and temperature increase accompanied by changes in the opposite sign to the southeast of the Amazon. Similar patterns have occurred in other studies, but not always in exactly the same locations. Evidently, how much of the region of rainfall increase occurs in the deforested area over the Amazon strongly affects the inferred statistics. It is likely that this pattern depends on the model control climatology and possibly other features. 16 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  10. Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-11-15

    This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM).

  11. Simulation of the modern arctic climate by the NCAR CCM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, David H.; Tzeng, Ren-Yow; Parish, Thomas, R.

    1994-01-01

    The National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1's) simulation of the modern arctic climate is evaluated by comparing a five-year seasonal cycle simulation with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The sea level pressure (SLP), storm tracks, vertical cross section of height, 500-hPa height, total energy budget, and moisture budget are analyzed to investigate the biases in the simulated arctic climate. The results show that the model simulates anomalously low SLP, too much storm activity, and anomalously strong baroclinicity to the west of Greenland and vice versa to the east of Greenland. This bias is mainly attributed to the model's topographic representation of Greenland. First, the broadened Greenland topography in the model distorts the path of cyclone waves over the North Atlantic Ocean. Second, the model oversimulates the ridge over Greenland, which intensifies its blocking effect and steers the cyclone waves clockwise around it and hence produces an artificial circum-Greenland trough. These biases are significantly alleviated when the horizontal resolution increases to T42. Over the Arctic basin, the model simulates large amounts of low-level (stratus) clouds in winter and almost no stratus in summer, which is opposite to the observations. This bias is mainly due to the location of the simulated SLP features and the negative anomaly of storm activity, which prevent the transport of moisture into this region during summer but favor this transport in winter. The moisture budget analysis shows that the model's net annual precipitation (P-E) between 70 deg N and the North Pole is 6.6 times larger than the observations and the model transports six times more moisture into this region. The bias in the advection term is attributed to the positive moisture fixer scheme and the distorted flow pattern. However, the excessive moisture transport into the Arctic basin does not solely

  12. Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curchitser, E. N.; Lawrence, P.; Felder, F.; Large, W.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Andrews, C.; Kopp, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    We present results from a project to develop a framework for investigating the interactions between human activity and the climate system using state-of-the-art multi-scale, climate and economic models. The model is applied to the highly industrialized and urbanized coastal region of the northeast US with an emphasis on New Jersey. The framework is developed around the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). The CESM model capabilities are augmented with enhanced resolution of the atmosphere (25 km), land surface (I km) and ocean models (7 km) in our region of interest. To the climate model, we couple human activity models for the utility sector and a 300-equation econometric model with sectorial details of an input-output model for the New Jersey economy. We will present results to date showing the potential impact of climate change on electricity markets on its consequences on economic activity in the region.

  13. The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.

    1998-06-01

    Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent

  14. Comparison of the seasonal climate simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the reanalysis NCEP/NCAR with the observed data of the temperature of the air and the precipitation in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leon Aristizabal, Gloria Esperanza; Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal

    2001-01-01

    In this work we carry out a comparison of the simulations of the climatic model CCM3, the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and real data, by the practical significance of the model based on the observed differences

  15. The NCAR Digital Asset Services Hub (DASH): Implementing Unified Data Discovery and Access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, D.; Worley, S. J.; Hou, C. Y.; Nienhouse, E.

    2017-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Directorate created the Data Stewardship Engineering Team (DSET) to plan and implement an integrated single entry point for uniform digital asset discovery and access across the organization in order to improve the efficiency of access, reduce the costs, and establish the foundation for interoperability with other federated systems. This effort supports new policies included in federal funding mandates, NSF data management requirements, and journal citation recommendations. An inventory during the early planning stage identified diverse asset types across the organization that included publications, datasets, metadata, models, images, and software tools and code. The NCAR Digital Asset Services Hub (DASH) is being developed and phased in this year to improve the quality of users' experiences in finding and using these assets. DASH serves to provide engagement, training, search, and support through the following four nodes (see figure). DASH MetadataDASH provides resources for creating and cataloging metadata to the NCAR Dialect, a subset of ISO 19115. NMDEdit, an editor based on a European open source application, has been configured for manual entry of NCAR metadata. CKAN, an open source data portal platform, harvests these XML records (along with records output directly from databases) from a Web Accessible Folder (WAF) on GitHub for validation. DASH SearchThe NCAR Dialect metadata drives cross-organization search and discovery through CKAN, which provides the display interface of search results. DASH search will establish interoperability by facilitating metadata sharing with other federated systems. DASH ConsultingThe DASH Data Curation & Stewardship Coordinator assists with Data Management (DM) Plan preparation and advises on Digital Object Identifiers. The coordinator arranges training sessions on the DASH metadata tools and DM planning, and provides one-on-one assistance as requested. DASH Repository

  16. Expanding Access to NCAR's Digital Assets: Towards a Unified Scientific Data Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, D.

    2016-12-01

    In 2014 the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Directorate created the Data Stewardship Engineering Team (DSET) to plan and implement the strategic vision of an integrated front door for data discovery and access across the organization, including all laboratories, the library, and UCAR Community Programs. The DSET is focused on improving the quality of users' experiences in finding and using NCAR's digital assets. This effort also supports new policies included in federal mandates, NSF requirements, and journal publication rules. An initial survey with 97 respondents identified 68 persons responsible for more than 3 petabytes of data. An inventory, using the Data Asset Framework produced by the UK Digital Curation Centre as a starting point, identified asset types that included files and metadata, publications, images, and software (visualization, analysis, model codes). User story sessions with representatives from each lab identified and ranked desired features for a unified Scientific Data Management System (SDMS). A process beginning with an organization-wide assessment of metadata by the HDF Group and followed by meetings with labs to identify key documentation concepts, culminated in the development of an NCAR metadata dialect that leverages the DataCite and ISO 19115 standards. The tasks ahead are to build out an SDMS and populate it with rich standardized metadata. Software packages have been prototyped and currently are being tested and reviewed by DSET members. Key challenges for the DSET include technical and non-technical issues. First, the status quo with regard to how assets are managed varies widely across the organization. There are differences in file format standards, technologies, and discipline-specific vocabularies. Metadata diversity is another real challenge. The types of metadata, the standards used, and the capacity to create new metadata varies across the organization. Significant effort is required to develop tools to create

  17. Climate Discovery: Integrating Research With Exhibit, Public Tours, K-12, and Web-based EPO Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, S. Q.; Carbone, L.; Gardiner, L.; Johnson, R.; Russell, R.; Advisory Committee, S.; Ammann, C.; Lu, G.; Richmond, A.; Maute, A.; Haller, D.; Conery, C.; Bintner, G.

    2005-12-01

    The Climate Discovery Exhibit at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Lab provides an exciting conceptual outline for the integration of several EPO activities with other well-established NCAR educational resources and programs. The exhibit is organized into four topic areas intended to build understanding among NCAR's 80,000 annual visitors, including 10,000 school children, about Earth system processes and scientific methods contributing to a growing body of knowledge about climate and global change. These topics include: 'Sun-Earth Connections,' 'Climate Now,' 'Climate Past,' and 'Climate Future.' Exhibit text, graphics, film and electronic media, and interactives are developed and updated through collaborations between NCAR's climate research scientists and staff in the Office of Education and Outreach (EO) at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). With funding from NCAR, paleoclimatologists have contributed data and ideas for a new exhibit Teachers' Guide unit about 'Climate Past.' This collection of middle-school level, standards-aligned lessons are intended to help students gain understanding about how scientists use proxy data and direct observations to describe past climates. Two NASA EPO's have funded the development of 'Sun-Earth Connection' lessons, visual media, and tips for scientists and teachers. Integrated with related content and activities from the NASA-funded Windows to the Universe web site, these products have been adapted to form a second unit in the Climate Discovery Teachers' Guide about the Sun's influence on Earth's climate. Other lesson plans, previously developed by on-going efforts of EO staff and NSF's previously-funded Project Learn program are providing content for a third Teachers' Guide unit on 'Climate Now' - the dynamic atmospheric and geological processes that regulate Earth's climate. EO has plans to collaborate with NCAR climatologists and computer modelers in the next year to develop

  18. PLC based control system and maintenance activities at NCAR, Bilaspur

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dewangan, Jaidev; Trivedi, T.; Patel, Shiv P.; Malik, C.; Kumar, Rakesh; Gupta, Santosh Kumar; Bajpai, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    A 3.0 MV high current low energy Pelletron Accelerator facility (Model 9SDH-4, NEC, USA) with TORUIS (ion source for H + and He 2+ beam current H + ion ∼ 50μA @ 6 MeV, He 2+ at ∼ 10μA) and SNICS-II ion source for heavy ions has been commissioned as 'National Centre for Accelerator Based Research' in the Department of Pure and Applied Physics, Guru Ghasidas Vishwavidyalaya. In this paper, we detail out the control system developed and implemented at NCAR. The basic idea of controlling the machine is by providing the output signal through PLC to ACPC of accelerator using user interface points provided by the manufacturer. The PLC based system generates output signal once it receives the feedback signals from search and secure switches, door lock switches and scram switches interlocked with PLC. The output is controlled by ladder logic and is activated only when all the radiation monitors are in healthy state and outside radiations monitor having low radiation level. The details of control system and maintenance activities will be discussed in the paper

  19. Management and Stewardship of Airborne Observational Data for the NSF/NCAR HIAPER (GV) and NSF/NCAR C-130 at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, J.

    2014-12-01

    The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) funding for the operation, maintenance and upgrade of two research aircraft: the NSF/NCAR High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Gulfstream V and the NSF/NCAR Hercules C-130. A suite of in-situ and remote sensing airborne instruments housed at the EOL Research Aviation Facility (RAF) provide a basic set of measurements that are typically deployed on most airborne field campaigns. In addition, instruments to address more specific research requirements are provided by collaborating participants from universities, industry, NASA, NOAA or other agencies. The data collected are an important legacy of these field campaigns. A comprehensive metadata database and integrated cyber-infrastructure, along with a robust data workflow that begins during the field phase and extends to long-term archival (current aircraft data holdings go back to 1967), assures that: all data and associated software are safeguarded throughout the data handling process; community standards of practice for data stewardship and software version control are followed; simple and timely community access to collected data and associated software tools are provided; and the quality of the collected data is preserved, with the ultimate goal of supporting research and the reproducibility of published results. The components of this data system to be presented include: robust, searchable web access to data holdings; reliable, redundant data storage; web-based tools and scripts for efficient creation, maintenance and update of data holdings; access to supplemental data and documentation; storage of data in standardized data formats; comprehensive metadata collection; mature version control; human-discernable storage practices; and procedures to inform users of changes. In addition, lessons learned, shortcomings, and desired upgrades

  20. NCAR Earth Observing Laboratory - An End-to-End Observational Science Enterprise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockwell, A.; Baeuerle, B.; Grubišić, V.; Hock, T. F.; Lee, W. C.; Ranson, J.; Stith, J. L.; Stossmeister, G.

    2017-12-01

    Researchers who want to understand and describe the Earth System require high-quality observations of the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. Making these observations not only requires capable research platforms and state-of-the-art instrumentation but also benefits from comprehensive in-field project management and data services. NCAR's Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) is an end-to-end observational science enterprise that provides leadership in observational research to scientists from universities, U.S. government agencies, and NCAR. Deployment: EOL manages the majority of the NSF Lower Atmosphere Observing Facilities, which includes research aircraft, radars, lidars, profilers, and surface and sounding systems. This suite is designed to address a wide range of Earth system science - from microscale to climate process studies and from the planet's surface into the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere. EOL offers scientific, technical, operational, and logistics support to small and large field campaigns across the globe. Development: By working closely with the scientific community, EOL's engineering and scientific staff actively develop the next generation of observing facilities, staying abreast of emerging trends, technologies, and applications in order to improve our measurement capabilities. Through our Design and Fabrication Services, we also offer high-level engineering and technical expertise, mechanical design, and fabrication to the atmospheric research community. Data Services: EOL's platforms and instruments collect unique datasets that must be validated, archived, and made available to the research community. EOL's Data Management and Services deliver high-quality datasets and metadata in ways that are transparent, secure, and easily accessible. We are committed to the highest standard of data stewardship from collection to validation to archival. Discovery: EOL promotes curiosity about Earth science, and fosters advanced understanding of the

  1. Facilitating NCAR Data Discovery by Connecting Related Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosati, A.

    2012-12-01

    Linking datasets, creators, and users by employing the proper standards helps to increase the impact of funded research. In order for users to find a dataset, it must first be named. Data citations play the important role of giving datasets a persistent presence by assigning a formal "name" and location. This project focuses on the next step of the "name-find-use" sequence: enhancing discoverability of NCAR data by connecting related resources on the web. By examining metadata schemas that document datasets, I examined how Semantic Web approaches can help to ensure the widest possible range of data users. The focus was to move from search engine optimization (SEO) to information connectivity. Two main markup types are very visible in the Semantic Web and applicable to scientific dataset discovery: The Open Archives Initiative-Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE - www.openarchives.org) and Microdata (HTML5 and www.schema.org). My project creates pilot aggregations of related resources using both markup types for three case studies: The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset and related publications, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PSDI) animation and image files from NCAR's Visualization Lab (VisLab), and the multidisciplinary data types and formats from the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service (ACADIS). This project documents the differences between these markups and how each creates connectedness on the web. My recommendations point toward the most efficient and effective markup schema for aggregating resources within the three case studies based on the following assessment criteria: ease of use, current state of support and adoption of technology, integration with typical web tools, available vocabularies and geoinformatic standards, interoperability with current repositories and access portals (e.g. ESG, Java), and relation to data citation tools and methods.

  2. Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications (RAL), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-11-15

    This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). We have made substantial progress in model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation, as discussed in Sections 2-4. Section 5 presents our success in data dissemination, while Section 6 discusses the scientific impacts of our work. Section 7 discusses education and mentoring success of our project, while Section 8 lists our relevant DOE services. All peer-reviewed papers that acknowledged this project are listed in Section 9. Highlights of our achievements include: • We have finished 20 papers (most published already) on model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation • The global datasets developed under this project have been permanently archived and publicly available • Some of our research results have already been implemented in WRF and CLM • Patrick Broxton and Michael Brunke have received their Ph.D. • PI Zeng has served on DOE proposal review panels and DOE lab scientific focus area (SFA) review panels

  3. Application of the system of assimilation of climatic data (CDAS) of the Project NCEP/NCAR - Reanalysis Dates Set For climatological and synoptic ends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

    2001-01-01

    In response to an increasing demand of meteorological information on a synoptic scale and the need for a better and more precise knowledge of the different atmospheric fields on a local, regional and global scale, the program known as GRADS, developed by COLA in the US, has been implemented. to show graphically meteorological patterns at the surface and at different levels in the troposphere and lower stratosphere based on high-quality grid data prepared by NCEP/NCAR (NOAA)

  4. Comparing the Global Charcoal Database with Burned Area Trends from an Offline Fire Model Driven by the NCAR Last Millennium Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, A.; Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    This study uses an offline fire model driven by output from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to evaluate how climate, ecological, and human factors contributed to burned area over the past millennium, and uses the Global Charcoal Database (GCD) record of fire activity as a constraint. The offline fire model is similar to the fire module within the NCAR Community Land Model. The LME experiment includes 13 simulations of the Earth system from 850 CE through 2005 CE, and the fire model simulates burned area using LME climate and vegetation with imposed land use and land cover change. The fire model trends are compared to GCD records of charcoal accumulation rates derived from sediment cores. The comparisons are a way to assess the skill of the fire model, but also set up a methodology to directly test hypotheses of the main drivers of fire patterns over the past millennium. The focus is on regions selected from the GCD with high data density, and that have lake sediment cores that best capture the last millennium. Preliminary results are based on a fire model which excludes burning cropland and pasture land cover types, but this allows some assessment of how climate variability is captured by the fire model. Generally, there is good agreement between modeled burned area trends and fire trends from GCD for many regions of interest, suggesting the strength of climate variability as a control. At the global scale, trends and features are similar from 850 to 1700, which includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. After 1700, the trends significantly deviate, which may be due to non-cultivated land being converted to cultivated. In key regions of high data density in the GCD such as the Western USA, the trends agree from 850 to 1200 but diverge from 1200 to 1300. From 1300 to 1800, the trends show good agreement again. Implementing processes to include burning cultivated land within the fire model is anticipated to

  5. Detection of 10B distributions in histological samples by NCAR using thermal and cold neutrons and photoluminiscent imaging plates. New results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rant, J.; Skvarc, J.; Ilic, R.; Gabel, D.; Bayon, G.; Yanagie, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Lehmann, E.; Kuehne, G.

    1999-01-01

    The Neutron Capture Autoradiography (NCAR) using various Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors (SSNTDs) is a well established and accurate method to detect and measure the distributions of 10 B in the ppm range on macroscopic and microscopic level in biological samples, such as histological sections of tumours loaded with 10 B compounds used for BNCT (e.g. 1,2). recently a new technique of NCAR using sensitive photoluminescent Imaging Plates (IP) has been proposed to detect 10 B distributions in histological sections (3), exploiting excellent detection properties of IP systems such as very high detection sensitivity and quantum detection efficiency, broad linear response and dynamic range, very small image distortion, reusability of IP and possibilities of digital autoradiography. The advantage of IP-NCAR vs. NCAR with SSNTDs should be the much lower neutron fluence (10 7 10 9 vs. 10 10 10 13 n/cm 2 with SSNTDs), no intermediate chemical treatment (track etching) and direct and fast compuitational handling and evaluation of the digitized autoradiographic image. However, the spatial resolution of the present available IP detection systems is somewhat lower (∼ 0,04 mm) than with SSNTDs (∼ 0,01 mm). Another problem with IP NCAR is rather high sensitivity of IP to all types of ionizing radiations. Therefore the background of direct and induced gamma-rays as well as of epithermal and fast neutrons has to be filtered out of thermal neutron beam to be used for IP-NCAR. To improve the signal/background ratio and to increase the detectibility of 10 B we propose to use clean cold neutron beams for the IP-NCAR of 10 B distributions in histological samples in BNCT experiments (4,5). In the present work the recent results of experiments in IP-NCAR with cold neutrons from the neutron radiographic channel of the ORPHEE reactor in Saclay and with the rather clean thermal neutron beam of the NEUTRA neutron radiography facility of the PSI (Villingen) will be presented. For the

  6. Taking a Multi-pronged Approach to Expand the Reach of Climate Research Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, R.; Unger, M.; Eastburn, T.; Rockwell, A.; Laursen, K. K.; National CenterAtmospheric Research

    2011-12-01

    Recognizing the importance of tailoring content to a variety of audiences, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) takes a multi-pronged approach to expand the reach of climate research results. The center's communications and education and outreach teams leverage Web 1.0 and 2.0 functionality - Google searches, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube - as well as face-to-face interactions and traditional media outlets to ensure climate change messages effectively connect with multiple audiences. Key to these efforts, NCAR seeks to frame messages that emphasize cultural cognition, that is, in a manner that recognizes and resonates with different audiences' values and thus their identities. Among the basic communications approaches NCAR uses to engage the public are one-on-one interactions with the visiting public, which ranges from school children and tourists, to dignitaries and journalists. As an example, the NCAR Journalism Fellowship brings a competitively selected group of internatoinal journalists to NCAR. During a week-long visit and ongoing contact, journalists are provided with a close-up, nuanced view of the science and individuals working on the bigger-picture research that drives climate-related sound bites reported by the press. NCAR provides media training for its scientists, giving them tools and practice in effectively handling interviews for print, Web and radio outlets. The institution hosts public events like "Super Science Saturday," and NCAR staff participate in external activities such as school science fairs, community events and continuing education sessions. In addition to interactive displays that allow the public to "experience" science directly and informally, NCAR develops educational programs and curricula targeted to specific age groups and levels of expertise. We will explore the importance of analogies, images and anecdotes in explaining complicated subjects to such a varied set of audiences, and identify key concepts in simplifying

  7. Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2017-12-01

    Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

  8. NCAR High-resolution Land Data Assimilation System and Its Recent Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, F.; Manning, K.; Barlage, M.; Gochis, D.; Tewari, M.

    2008-05-01

    A High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) has been developed at NCAR to meet the need for high-resolution initial conditions of land state (soil moisture and temperature) by today's numerical weather prediction models coupled to a land surface model such as the WRF/Noah coupled modeling system. Intended for conterminous US application, HRLDAS uses observed hourly 4-km national precipitation analysis and satellite-derived surface-solar-downward radiation to drive, in uncoupled mode, the Noah land surface model to simulate long-term evolution of soil state. The advantage of HRLDAS is its use of 1-km resolution land-use and soil texture maps and 4-km rainfall data. As a result, it is able to capture fine-scale heterogeneity at the surface and in the soil. The ultimate goal of HRLDAS development is to characterize soil moisture/temperature and vegetation variability at small scales (~4km) over large areas to provide improved initial land and vegetation conditions for the WRF/Noah coupled model. Hence, HRLDAS is configured after the WRF/Noah coupled model configuration to ensure the consistency in model resolution, physical configuration (e.g., terrain height), soil model, and parameters between the uncoupled soil initialization system and its coupled forecast counterpart. We will discuss various characteristics of HRLDAS, including its spin-up and sensitivity to errors in forcing data. We will describe recent enhancement in terms of hydrological modeling and the use of remote sensing data. We will discuss recent applications of HRLDAS for flood forecast, agriculture, and arctic land system.

  9. Space-time variability of hydrological drought and wetness in Iran using NCEP/NCAR and GPCC datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Raziei

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Space-time variability of hydrological drought and wetness over Iran is investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC dataset for the common period 1948–2007. The aim is to complement previous studies on the detection of long-term trends in drought/wetness time series and on the applicability of reanalysis data for drought monitoring in Iran. Climate conditions of the area are assessed through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI on 24-month time scale, while Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Varimax rotation are used for investigating drought/wetness variability, and drought regionalization, respectively. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is applied to the time series of interest to extract the leading nonlinear components and compare them with linear fittings.

    Differences in drought and wetness area coverage resulting from the two datasets are discussed also in relation to the change occurred in recent years. NCEP/NCAR and GPCC are in good agreement in identifying four sub-regions as principal spatial modes of drought variability. However, the climate variability in each area is not univocally represented by the two datasets: a good agreement is found for south-eastern and north-western regions, while noticeable discrepancies occur for central and Caspian sea regions. A comparison with NCEP Reanalysis II for the period 1979–2007, seems to exclude that the discrepancies are merely due to the introduction of satellite data into the reanalysis assimilation scheme.

  10. Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

    2014-12-01

    As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

  11. Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2007-04-15

    The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

  12. A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

  13. Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nenes, Athanasios [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2017-06-23

    The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated new parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.

  14. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive: a Data Education Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, G. S.; Schuster, D.

    2015-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA), rda.ucar.edu, is not just another data center or data archive. It is a data education center. We not only serve data, we TEACH data. Weather and climate data is the original "Big Data" dataset and lessons learned while playing with weather data are applicable to a wide range of data investigations. Erroneous data assumptions are the Achilles heel of Big Data. It doesn't matter how much data you crunch if the data is not what you think it is. Each dataset archived at the RDA is assigned to a data specialist (DS) who curates the data. If a user has a question not answered in the dataset information web pages, they can call or email a skilled DS for further clarification. The RDA's diverse staff—with academic training in meteorology, oceanography, engineering (electrical, civil, ocean and database), mathematics, physics, chemistry and information science—means we likely have someone who "speaks your language." Data discovery is another difficult Big Data problem; one can only solve problems with data if one can find the right data. Metadata, both machine and human-generated, underpin the RDA data search tools. Users can quickly find datasets by name or dataset ID number. They can also perform a faceted search that successively narrows the options by user requirements or simply kick off an indexed search with a few words. Weather data formats can be difficult to read for non-expert users; it's usually packed in binary formats requiring specialized software and parameter names use specialized vocabularies. DSs create detailed information pages for each dataset and maintain lists of helpful software, documentation and links of information around the web. We further grow the level of sophistication of the users with tips, tutorials and data stories on the RDA Blog, http://ncarrda.blogspot.com/. How-to video tutorials are also posted on the NCAR Computational and Information Systems

  15. Historical simulations and climate change projections over India by NCAR CCSM4: CMIP5 vs. NEX-GDDP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Mishra, Saroj Kanta; Salunke, Popat

    2018-03-01

    A new bias-corrected statistically downscaled product, namely, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), has recently been developed by NASA to help the scientific community in climate change impact studies at local to regional scale. In this work, the product is validated over India and its added value as compared to its CMIP5 counterpart for the NCAR CCSM4 model is analyzed, followed by climate change projections under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario using the two datasets for the variables daily maximum 2-m air temperature (Tmax), daily minimum 2-m air temperature (Tmin), and rainfall. It is found that, overall, the CCSM4-NEX-GDDP significantly reduces many of the biases in CCSM4-CMIP5 for the historical simulations; however, some biases such as the significant overestimation in the frequency of occurrence in the lower tail of the Tmax and Tmin still remain. In regard to rainfall, an important value addition in CCSM4-NEX-GDDP is the alleviation of the significant underestimation of rainfall extremes found in CCSM4-CMIP5. The projected Tmax from CCSM4-NEX-GDDP are in general higher than that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5, suggesting that the risks of heat waves and very hot days could be higher than that projected by the latter. CCSM4-NEX-GDDP projects the frequency of occurrence of the upper extreme values of historical Tmax to increase by a factor of 100 towards the end of century (as opposed to a factor of 10 increase projected by CCSM4-CMIP5). In regard to rainfall, both CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP project an increase in annual rainfall over India under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario progressively from the near term through the far term. However, CCSM4-NEX-GDDP consistently projects a higher magnitude of increase and over a larger area as compared to that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5. Projected daily rainfall distributions from CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP suggest the occurrence of events that have no historical precedents

  16. Same-source parallel implementation of the PSU/NCAR MM5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michalakes, J.

    1997-12-31

    The Pennsylvania State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model is a limited-area model of atmospheric systems, now in its fifth generation, MM5. Designed and maintained for vector and shared-memory parallel architectures, the official version of MM5 does not run on message-passing distributed memory (DM) parallel computers. The authors describe a same-source parallel implementation of the PSU/NCAR MM5 using FLIC, the Fortran Loop and Index Converter. The resulting source is nearly line-for-line identical with the original source code. The result is an efficient distributed memory parallel option to MM5 that can be seamlessly integrated into the official version.

  17. The Next Generation of Airborne Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar: NCAR/EOL Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR) Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, James; Lee, Wen-Chau; Loew, Eric; Vivekanandan, Jothiram; Grubišić, Vanda; Tsai, Peisang; Dixon, Mike; Emmett, Jonathan; Lord, Mark; Lussier, Louis; Hwang, Kyuil; Ranson, James

    2017-04-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth observing Laboratory (EOL) is entering the third year of preliminary system design studies, engineering prototype testing and project management plan preparation for the development of a novel Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR). This system being designed by NCAR/EOL will be installed and operated on the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft. The APAR system will consist of four removable C-band Active Electronically Scanned Arrays (AESA) strategically placed on the fuselage of the aircraft. Each AESA measures approximately 1.5 x 1.9 m and is composed of 3000 active radiating elements arranged in an array of line replaceable units (LRU) to simplify maintenance. APAR will provide unprecedented observations, and in conjunction with the advanced radar data assimilation schema, will be able to address the key science questions to improve understanding and predictability of significant and high-impact weather APAR, operating at C-band, allows the measurement of 3-D kinematics of the more intense portions of storms (e.g. thunderstorm dynamics and tornadic development, tropical cyclone rainband structure and evolution) with less attenuation compared with current airborne Doppler radar systems. Polarimetric measurements are not available from current airborne tail Doppler radars. However, APAR, with dual-Doppler and dual polarization diversity at a lesser attenuating C-band wavelength, will further advance the understanding of the microphysical processes within a variety of precipitation systems. The radar is sensitive enough to provide high resolution measurements of winter storm dynamics and microphysics. The planned APAR development that would bring the system to operational readiness for research community use aboard the C-130 is expected to take 8 years once major funding support is realized. The authors will review the overall APAR design and provide new details of the system based on our Technical Requirements Document

  18. Supporting National User Communities at NERSC and NCAR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Killeen, Timothy L.; Simon, Horst D.

    2006-05-16

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center(NERSC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are twocomputing centers that have traditionally supported large national usercommunities. Both centers have developed responsive approaches to supportthese user communities and their changing needs, providing end-to-endcomputing solutions. In this report we provide a short overview of thestrategies used at our centers in supporting our scientific users, withan emphasis on some examples of effective programs and futureneeds.

  19. Building a global federation system for climate change research: the earth system grid center for enabling technologies (ESG-CET)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ananthakrishnan, R; Bernholdt, D E; Bharathi, S; Brown, D; Chen, M; Chervenak, A L; Cinquini, L; Drach, R; Foster, I T; Fox, P; Fraser, D; Halliday, K; Hankin, S; Jones, P; Kesselman, C; Middleton, D E; Schwidder, J; Schweitzer, R; Schuler, R; Shoshani, A; Siebenlist, F; Sim, A; Strand, W G; Wilhelmi, N; Su, M; Williams, D N

    2007-01-01

    The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4) has generated significant media attention. Much has been said about the US role in this report, which included significant support from the Department of Energy through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) and other Department of Energy (DOE) programs for climate model development and the production execution of simulations. The SciDAC-supported Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) also played a major role in the IPCC AR4: all of the simulation data that went into the report was made available to climate scientists worldwide exclusively via the ESG-CET At the same time as the IPCC AR4 database was being developed, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading US climate science laboratory and a ESG participant, began publishing model runs from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and its predecessor the Parallel Coupled Model (PCM) through ESG In aggregate, ESG-CET provides seamless access to over 180 terabytes of distributed climate simulation data to over 6,000 registered users worldwide, who have taken delivery of more than 250 terabytes from the archive. Not only does this represent a substantial advance in scientific knowledge, it is also a major step forward in how we conduct the research process on a global scale. Moving forward, the next IPCC assessment report, AR5, will demand multi-site metadata federation for data discovery and cross-domain identity management for single sign-on of users in a more diverse federation enterprise environment. Towards this aim, ESG is leading the effort in the climate community towards standardization of material for the global federation of metadata, security, and data services required to standardize, analyze, and access data worldwide

  20. Games and Simulations for Climate, Weather and Earth Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, R. M.; Clark, S.

    2015-12-01

    We will demonstrate several interactive, computer-based simulations, games, and other interactive multimedia. These resources were developed for weather, climate, atmospheric science, and related Earth system science education. The materials were created by the UCAR Center for Science Education. These materials have been disseminated via our web site (SciEd.ucar.edu), webinars, online courses, teacher workshops, and large touchscreen displays in weather and Sun-Earth connections exhibits in NCAR's Mesa Lab facility in Boulder, Colorado. Our group has also assembled a web-based list of similar resources, especially simulations and games, from other sources that touch upon weather, climate, and atmospheric science topics. We'll briefly demonstrate this directory.

  1. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassano, John [Principal Investigator

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  2. GPM GROUND VALIDATION NCAR CLOUD MICROPHYSICS PARTICLE PROBES MC3E V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GPM Ground Validation NCAR Cloud Microphysics Particle Probes MC3E dataset was collected during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E),...

  3. Responses of Mixed-Phase Cloud Condensates and Cloud Radiative Effects to Ice Nucleating Particle Concentrations in NCAR CAM5 and DOE ACME Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Shi, Y.; Wu, M.; Zhang, K.

    2017-12-01

    Mixed-phase clouds frequently observed in the Arctic and mid-latitude storm tracks have the substantial impacts on the surface energy budget, precipitation and climate. In this study, we first implement the two empirical parameterizations (Niemand et al. 2012 and DeMott et al. 2015) of heterogeneous ice nucleation for mixed-phase clouds in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) and DOE Accelerated Climate Model for Energy Version 1 (ACME1). Model simulated ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations based on Niemand et al. and DeMott et al. are compared with those from the default ice nucleation parameterization based on the classical nucleation theory (CNT) in CAM5 and ACME, and with in situ observations. Significantly higher INP concentrations (by up to a factor of 5) are simulated from Niemand et al. than DeMott et al. and CNT especially over the dust source regions in both CAM5 and ACME. Interestingly the ACME model simulates higher INP concentrations than CAM5, especially in the Polar regions. This is also the case when we nudge the two models' winds and temperature towards the same reanalysis, indicating more efficient transport of aerosols (dust) to the Polar regions in ACME. Next, we examine the responses of model simulated cloud liquid water and ice water contents to different INP concentrations from three ice nucleation parameterizations (Niemand et al., DeMott et al., and CNT) in CAM5 and ACME. Changes in liquid water path (LWP) reach as much as 20% in the Arctic regions in ACME between the three parameterizations while the LWP changes are smaller and limited in the Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes in CAM5. Finally, the impacts on cloud radiative forcing and dust indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds are quantified with the three ice nucleation parameterizations in CAM5 and ACME.

  4. The NCAR Research Data Archive's Hybrid Approach for Data Discovery and Access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, D.; Worley, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    The NCAR Research Data Archive (RDA http://rda.ucar.edu) maintains a variety of data discovery and access capabilities for it's 600+ dataset collections to support the varying needs of a diverse user community. In-house developed and standards-based community tools offer services to more than 10,000 users annually. By number of users the largest group is external and access the RDA through web based protocols; the internal NCAR HPC users are fewer in number, but typically access more data volume. This paper will detail the data discovery and access services maintained by the RDA to support both user groups, and show metrics that illustrate how the community is using the services. The distributed search capability enabled by standards-based community tools, such as Geoportal and an OAI-PMH access point that serves multiple metadata standards, provide pathways for external users to initially discover RDA holdings. From here, in-house developed web interfaces leverage primary discovery level metadata databases that support keyword and faceted searches. Internal NCAR HPC users, or those familiar with the RDA, may go directly to the dataset collection of interest and refine their search based on rich file collection metadata. Multiple levels of metadata have proven to be invaluable for discovery within terabyte-sized archives composed of many atmospheric or oceanic levels, hundreds of parameters, and often numerous grid and time resolutions. Once users find the data they want, their access needs may vary as well. A THREDDS data server running on targeted dataset collections enables remote file access through OPENDAP and other web based protocols primarily for external users. In-house developed tools give all users the capability to submit data subset extraction and format conversion requests through scalable, HPC based delayed mode batch processing. Users can monitor their RDA-based data processing progress and receive instructions on how to access the data when it is

  5. Educational and Scientific Applications of Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Zhang, J.; Bao, Q.

    2016-12-01

    Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA) is a web-based information system designed for the climate modeling and model analysis community to analyze climate data from models and observations. CMDA provides tools to diagnostically analyze climate data for model validation and improvement, and to systematically manage analysis provenance for sharing results with other investigators. CMDA utilizes cloud computing resources, multi-threading computing, machine-learning algorithms, web service technologies, and provenance-supporting technologies to address technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. As CMDA infrastructure and technology have matured, we have developed the educational and scientific applications of CMDA. Educationally, CMDA supported the summer school of the JPL Center for Climate Sciences for three years since 2014. In the summer school, the students work on group research projects where CMDA provide datasets and analysis tools. Each student is assigned to a virtual machine with CMDA installed in Amazon Web Services. A provenance management system for CMDA is developed to keep track of students' usages of CMDA, and to recommend datasets and analysis tools for their research topic. The provenance system also allows students to revisit their analysis results and share them with their group. Scientifically, we have developed several science use cases of CMDA covering various topics, datasets, and analysis types. Each use case developed is described and listed in terms of a scientific goal, datasets used, the analysis tools used, scientific results discovered from the use case, an analysis result such as output plots and data files, and a link to the exact analysis service call with all the input arguments filled. For example, one science use case is the evaluation of NCAR CAM5 model with MODIS total cloud fraction. The analysis service used is Difference Plot Service of

  6. The Atlas of Climate Change. Based on SEAP-CMIP5. Super-ensemble projection and attribution (SEAP) of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Wenjie; Guo, Yan [Beijing Normal Univ. (China). Normal Univ. College of Global Change and Earth System Science; Ren, Fumin [China Meterological Administration, Beijing (China). National Climate Center; Huang, Jianbin [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Center for Earth System Science

    2013-02-01

    Outputs from the latest generation of earth system model from world class model development groups for IPCC AR5. Describes quantitatively state historical responsibility for global warming. Demonstrates how the Earth's climate system will change from today up to 2100. Describes how much climate change we may avoid if we take action according to Cancun Pledge ''The Atlas of Climate Change-Based on SEAP-CMIP5'' is intended to satisfy readers' curiosity: how will our climate system change over the next 100 years? It is the first showcase for the state-of -the-art earth system models that released their CMIP5 simulations for the IPCC AR5.The atlas focuses on both the past climate system change from 1850 and the projection of the future climate system change to 2100 using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on climate models. This provides the research and application community interested in the impact of climate change on fields such as agriculture, ecosystem, environment,water resources, energy, health, economy, risk governance and international negotiation, etc. with the newest climate change projection information. Additionally, the atlas will show the historical responsibility of the developed/developing countries and possible contributions to the mitigation of climate change according to their pledge of GHG emission reduction after the Cancun Agreement as an extension numerical experiment to CMIP5 with NCAR's CESM1.0. The authors will update this atlas after future releases of CMIP5 model outputs and update the figures in the second edition of the atlas in 2012-2013.

  7. The impact of climate change on hailstorms in southeastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niall, Stephanie; Walsh, Kevin

    2005-11-01

    Data from a number of locations around southeastern Australia were analysed to determine the influence of climate change on the frequency and intensity of hail events in this region. The relationship between Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), frequently used as a measure of atmospheric instability, and hailstorms was investigated using both NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (a data set comprising a blend of observations and model simulations) and also direct sounding data obtained from the Australian National Climate Centre. Two locations were chosen in southeastern Australia, Mount Gambier and Melbourne, over the months August to October for the period 1980-2001. A statistically significant relationship between hail incidence and CAPE values was established for both NCEP/NCAR and sounding data at both study sites. A stronger relationship was found between hail incidence and the CAPE, which was calculated using NCEP/NCAR data, than that between hail and the CAPE from the actual sounding data. A similar analysis was also conducted at both sites using the totals-totals index (TT index), which is an alternative measure of atmospheric instability.The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model was used to simulate values of CAPE for Mount Gambier in an environment containing double the pre-industrial concentrations of equivalent CO2. The results showed a significant decrease in CAPE values in the future. From this, assuming the relationship between CAPE and hail remains unchanged under enhanced greenhouse conditions, it is possible that there will be a decrease in the frequency of hail in southeastern Australia if current rates of CO2 emission are sustained. The severity of future hail events was investigated using crop-loss data from insurance companies. Strongest correlations were found between the crop-loss ratio (value of crop lost to hail damage over the total insured value of crop) and the number of days in a crop season with a TT index greater than 55. Results from the

  8. Using Virtualization to Integrate Weather, Climate, and Coastal Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; Figueiredo, R.; Sheng, Y.

    2012-12-01

    To better understand and communicate the important roles of weather and climate on the coastal environment, a unique publically available tool is being developed to support research, education, and outreach activities. This tool uses virtualization technologies to facilitate an interactive, hands-on environment in which students, researchers, and general public can perform their own numerical modeling experiments. While prior efforts have focused solely on the study of the coastal and estuary environments, this effort incorporates the community supported weather and climate model (WRF-ARW) into the Coastal Science Educational Virtual Appliance (CSEVA), an education tool used to assist in the learning of coastal transport processes; storm surge and inundation; and evacuation modeling. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation, community developed and supported, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to be used internationally for research, operations, and teaching. It includes two dynamical solvers (ARW - Advanced Research WRF and NMM - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) as well as a data assimilation system. WRF-ARW is the ARW dynamics solver combined with other components of the WRF system which was developed primarily at NCAR, community support provided by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Included with WRF is the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) which is a set of programs to prepare input for real-data simulations. The CSEVA is based on the Grid Appliance (GA) framework and is built using virtual machine (VM) and virtual networking technologies. Virtualization supports integration of an operating system, libraries (e.g. Fortran, C, Perl, NetCDF, etc. necessary to build WRF), web server, numerical models/grids/inputs, pre-/post-processing tools (e.g. WPS / RIP4 or UPS), graphical user interfaces, "Cloud"-computing infrastructure and other tools into a

  9. Climate Change Science Teaching through Integration of Technology in Instruction and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriharan, S.; Ozbay, G.; Robinson, L.; Klimkowski, V.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation demonstrates the importance of collaborations between the institutions with common focus on offering the academic program on climate change science. Virginia State University (VSU) developed and established the course on climate change and adaptation, AGRI 350 for undergraduates, in cooperation with two HBCUs, Delaware State University (DSU) and Morgan State University (MSU). This program was developed to enhance the science curriculum with funding from the USDA NIFA. The hands-on research opportunities for students were supported by the NSF HBCU UP Supplement Grant at VSU. The technical guidance and lesson plans were available through the courtesy of the AMS and faculty/student team training at the NCAR. In the initial stages, the faculty members participated in faculty development workshops hosted by the AMS and NCAR. This contributed to trained faculty members developing the courses on Climate Change at VSU, DSU, and MSU. To create awareness of global climate change and exposure of students to international programs, seven students from VSU, MSU, and DSU participated in the Climate Change course (ENS 320) at the University of Sunshine Coast (USC), Australia. This international experience included faculty members in using SimCLIM for climate change data into decision-making with regard to potential changes to cropping systems and tree growth. The Climate Change program at VSU, DSU, and MSU is emerging into comprehensive academic program which includes use of case studies and exchange of students' reflections with their peers through discussion board and videoconferencing, hands-on research on water quality monitoring and mapping the study sites, and integration of geospatial technologies and i-Tree. In addition, the students' engagement in intensive research was conducted through hands-on experience with Scanning Electron Microscopy in the Marine Science Department, University of Hawaii at Hilo in summer 2015.

  10. A Diagnostic PDF Cloud Scheme to Improve Subtropical Low Clouds in NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Yi; Lin, Yanluan; Xu, Shiming; Ma, Hsi-Yen; Xie, Shaocheng

    2018-02-01

    Low clouds strongly impact the radiation budget of the climate system, but their simulation in most GCMs has remained a challenge, especially over the subtropical stratocumulus region. Assuming a Gaussian distribution for the subgrid-scale total water and liquid water potential temperature, a new statistical cloud scheme is proposed and tested in NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The subgrid-scale variance is diagnosed from the turbulent and shallow convective processes in CAM5. The approach is able to maintain the consistency between cloud fraction and cloud condensate and thus alleviates the adjustment needed in the default relative humidity-based cloud fraction scheme. Short-term forecast simulations indicate that low cloud fraction and liquid water content, including their diurnal cycle, are improved due to a proper consideration of subgrid-scale variance over the southeastern Pacific Ocean region. Compared with the default cloud scheme, the new approach produced the mean climate reasonably well with improved shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) due to more reasonable low cloud fraction and liquid water path over regions with predominant low clouds. Meanwhile, the SWCF bias over the tropical land regions is also alleviated. Furthermore, the simulated marine boundary layer clouds with the new approach extend further offshore and agree better with observations. The new approach is able to obtain the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation balance with a slightly alleviated double ITCZ problem in preliminary coupled simulations. This study implies that a close coupling of cloud processes with other subgrid-scale physical processes is a promising approach to improve cloud simulations.

  11. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

    2000-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  12. Understanding the interaction between wild fire and vegetation distribution within the NCAR CESM framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    Every year wild fire brings about 400Mha of land burned therefore 2Pg of carbon emissions from the surface occur. In this way fire not only affects the carbon circulation but also has an effect on the terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to understand role of fire on the geographic vegetation distribution and the terrestrial carbon balances within the NCAR CESM framework, specifically with the CLM-BGC and CLM-BGC-DV. Global climate data from Climate Research Unit (CRU)-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data ranging from 1901 to 2010 are used to drive the land models. First, by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the CLM-BGC-DV, the fire impacts in dynamic vegetation are quantified by the fractional land areas of the different plant functional types. In addition, we examine how changes in vegetation distribution affect the total sum of the burned areas and the carbon balances. This study would provide the limits of and suggestions for the fire and dynamic vegetation modules of the CLM-BGC. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

  13. An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wanqiu; Xie, Pingping; Yoo, Soo-Hyun; Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Xingren [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-10-15

    This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998-2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious

  14. A regional climate model for the Arctic and the North Atlantic; Ein regionales Klimamodell fuer die Arktis und den Nordatlantik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndt, H

    2001-07-01

    The Arctic and the subpolar region of the North Atlantic with their complex net of mechanisms and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system. Because of the sparse observations and the low resolution of the global models the high-resolution regional climate model REMO provides an improved tool to investigate arctic processes. REMO is based on the former numerical weather prediction model EM of the German Weather Service (DWD) and was further developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPIfM) in Hamburg. It has two different parameterization schemes - the original one called DWD-physics and additionally the ECHAM4-physics from MPIfM. The dynamical scheme is in both cases identical. In a first step REMO is adapted to the new domain. This configuration covers the Arctic and the North Atlantic down to 40 N with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 and 121 x 145 grid points. Different periods are simulated with DWD- and ECHAM4-Physics in forecast - as well as in climate-mode. Lateral boundary conditions are taken from NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Comparing REMO with ship observations in the Labrador Sea yields a better correspondence than the reanalysis data. Simulated precipitation is overestimated most probably due to unrealistic high humidity in the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Observed sensible heat fluxes are much lower than the REMO and NCEP/NCAR simulated fluxes. REMO simulations in climate- and forecast-mode with ECHAM4-parameterizations are compared with measured surface temperatures and precipitation distributions. While there are numerically generated spectral spikes in the NCEP/NCAR precipitation fields in the Arctic, they are not found in the REMO results. In a sensitivity study the impact of higher surface roughness in the marginal ice zone is investigated. Ensemble experiments show the high internal variability masking any signals due to the changed roughness length. This high internal variability is mostly due to the large model domain and the

  15. Improving Convection and Cloud Parameterization Using ARM Observations and NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Guang J. [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2016-11-07

    The fundamental scientific objectives of our research are to use ARM observations and the NCAR CAM5 to understand the large-scale control on convection, and to develop improved convection and cloud parameterizations for use in GCMs.

  16. Response of the East Asian climate system to water and heat changes of global frozen soil using NCAR CAM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Under the condition of land-atmosphere heat and water conservation, a set of sensitive numerical experiments are set up to investigate the response of the East Asian climate system to global frozen soil change. This is done by introducing the supercooled soil water process into the Community Land Model (CLM3.0), which has been coupled to the National Center of Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1). Results show that: 1) The ratio between soil ice and soil water in CLM3.0 is clearly changed by the supercooled soil water process. Ground surface temperature and soil temperature are also affected. 2) The Eurasian (including East Asian) climate system is sensitive to changes of heat and water in frozen soil regions. In January, the Aleutian low sea level pressure circulation is strengthened, Ural blocking high at 500 hPa weakened, and East Asian trough weakened. In July, sea level pressure over the Aleutian Islands region is significantly reduced; there are negative anomalies of 500 hPa geopotential height over the East Asian mainland, and positive anomalies over the East Asian ocean. 3) In January, the southerly component of the 850 hPa wind field over East Asia increases, indicating a weakened winter monsoon. In July, cyclonic anomalies appear on the East Asian mainland while there are anticyclonic anomalies over the ocean, reflective of a strengthened east coast summer monsoon. 4) Summer rainfall in East Asia changed significantly, including substantial precipitation increase on the southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, central Yangtze River Basin, and northeast China. Summer rainfall significantly decreased in south China and Hainan Island, but slightly decreased in central and north China. Further analysis showed considerable upper air motion along 30°N latitude, with substantial descent of air at its north and south sides. Warm and humid air from the Northeast Pacific converged with cold air from northern land areas, representing the main cause of

  17. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  18. Climatic projections and socio economic impacts of the climatic change in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2001-01-01

    For the task of working out climate change projections, different methodologies have been in use, from simple extrapolations to sophisticated statistical and mathematical tools. Today, the tools most used are the models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which include many processes of other climate components (biosphere, cryosphere, continental surface models, etc.). Different global and regional scenarios have been generated with those models. They may be of great utility in calculating projections and future scenarios for Colombia, but the representation of the country's climate in those models has to be improved in order to get projections with a higher level of certainty. The application of climate models and of the techniques of down scaling in studies of climate change is new both in Colombia and tropical America, and was introduced through the National University of Colombia's project on local and national climate change. In the first phase of the project, version 3 of the CCM (Climate Community Model) of NCAR was implemented. Parallel to that, and based on national (grid) data, maps have been prepared of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Colombia, which were used to validate the model

  19. An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonsal, Barrie R.; Prowse, Terry D.; Pietroniro, Alain

    2003-12-01

    Climate change is projected to significantly affect future hydrologic processes over many regions of the world. This is of particular importance for alpine systems that provide critical water supplies to lower-elevation regions. The western cordillera of Canada is a prime example where changes to temperature and precipitation could have profound hydro-climatic impacts not only for the cordillera itself, but also for downstream river systems and the drought-prone Canadian Prairies. At present, impact researchers primarily rely on global climate models (GCMs) for future climate projections. The main objective of this study is to assess several GCMs in their ability to simulate the magnitude and spatial variability of current (1961-90) temperature and precipitation over the western cordillera of Canada. In addition, several gridded data sets of observed climate for the study region are evaluated.Results reveal a close correspondence among the four gridded data sets of observed climate, particularly for temperature. There is, however, considerable variability regarding the various GCM simulations of this observed climate. The British, Canadian, German, Australian, and US GFDL models are superior at simulating the magnitude and spatial variability of mean temperature. The Japanese GCM is of intermediate ability, and the US NCAR model is least representative of temperature in this region. Nearly all the models substantially overestimate the magnitude of total precipitation, both annually and on a seasonal basis. An exception involves the British (Hadley) model, which best represents the observed magnitude and spatial variability of precipitation. This study improves our understanding regarding the accuracy of GCM climate simulations over the western cordillera of Canada. The findings may assist in producing more reliable future scenarios of hydro-climatic conditions over various regions of the country. Copyright

  20. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  1. Revista Espinhaço entrevistaDra. Bette Otto Bliesner(NCAR Boulder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kourosh Behzadian

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Dra. Bette Otto Bliesner foi entrevistada pela Revista Espinhaço durante o BIARI 2016, que ocorreu em Providence (EUA na Brown University. Para este volume especial da Revista Espihaço, a Dra. Bette, pesquisadora do National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR e especialista em modelagem climática e paleo-climatologia, traz reflexões sobre seu recente trabalho no IPCC.Esta entrevista foi conduzida por Kourosh Behzadian (University of West London, Douglas Sathler (FIH/Cegeo/UFVJM and Lorena Fleury (UFRGS.

  2. Impact of Antarctic mixed-phase clouds on climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, R Paul; Gettelman, Andrew

    2014-12-23

    Precious little is known about the composition of low-level clouds over the Antarctic Plateau and their effect on climate. In situ measurements at the South Pole using a unique tethered balloon system and ground-based lidar reveal a much higher than anticipated incidence of low-level, mixed-phase clouds (i.e., consisting of supercooled liquid water drops and ice crystals). The high incidence of mixed-phase clouds is currently poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). As a result, the effects that mixed-phase clouds have on climate predictions are highly uncertain. We modify the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) GCM to align with the new observations and evaluate the radiative effects on a continental scale. The net cloud radiative effects (CREs) over Antarctica are increased by +7.4 Wm(-2), and although this is a significant change, a much larger effect occurs when the modified model physics are extended beyond the Antarctic continent. The simulations show significant net CRE over the Southern Ocean storm tracks, where recent measurements also indicate substantial regions of supercooled liquid. These sensitivity tests confirm that Southern Ocean CREs are strongly sensitive to mixed-phase clouds colder than -20 °C.

  3. Recent trends and climatic perspectives of hailstorms frequency and intensity in Tuscany and Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Piani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The damages from climatic extremes have dramatically increased in the last decades in Europe, as likely outcomes of climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves and hailstorms have brought local as well as widespread damages to farmers, industry, infrastructures and society, to insurance and reinsurance companies; in this work we deal with the hailstorm hazard. The NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (2.5 by 2.5° lat-lon over the Italian area and the hailstorm reports at several sites are used to identify few forcings for hailstorms; statistical relationships linking forcings and hailstorm frequencies are derived. Such relationships are applied to the same forcings derived from the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario provided by the Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma; resolution approximately 3.75 by 3.75° lat-lon, to evaluate the expected changes of the frequency of hailstorms. The time series of the forcings from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and the CCCma climate scenario in the past decades are compared in order to assess the reliability and accuracy of the predictions of the future hailstorm hazard. It is shown that the climate scenario provides a fairly faithful representation of the past trends of the forcings relevant to the hailstorms frequency and that such quantity, hence the hailstorm hazard, is growing and will likely grow in the future over the limited area taken into consideration in this study.

  4. Monsoon and cyclone induced wave climate over the near shore waters off Puduchery, south western Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Glejin, J.; SanilKumar, V.; Nair, T.M.B.

    . Reanalysis data, NCEP / NCAR (Kalnay et al. 1996), provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ at 10 m height with a temporal resolution of 6 hour intervals is used to analyze the wind pattern...

  5. An Efficient Workflow Environment to Support the Collaborative Development of Actionable Climate Information Using the NCAR Climate Risk Management Engine (CRMe)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammann, C. M.; Vigh, J. L.; Lee, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Society's growing needs for robust and relevant climate information have fostered an explosion in tools and frameworks for processing climate projections. Many top-down workflows might be employed to generate sets of pre-computed data and plots, frequently served in a "loading-dock style" through a metadata-enabled search and discovery engine. Despite these increasing resources, the diverse needs of applications-driven projects often result in data processing workflow requirements that cannot be fully satisfied using past approaches. In parallel to the data processing challenges, the provision of climate information to users in a form that is also usable represents a formidable challenge of its own. Finally, many users do not have the time nor the desire to synthesize and distill massive volumes of climate information to find the relevant information for their particular application. All of these considerations call for new approaches to developing actionable climate information. CRMe seeks to bridge the gap between the diversity and richness of bottom-up needs of practitioners, with discrete, structured top-down workflows typically implemented for rapid delivery. Additionally, CRMe has implemented web-based data services capable of providing focused climate information in usable form for a given location, or as spatially aggregated information for entire regions or countries following the needs of users and sectors. Making climate data actionable also involves summarizing and presenting it in concise and approachable ways. CRMe is developing the concept of dashboards, co-developed with the users, to condense the key information into a quick summary of the most relevant, curated climate data for a given discipline, application, or location, while still enabling users to efficiently conduct deeper discovery into rich datasets on an as-needed basis.

  6. Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

  7. The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET): Scaling the Earth System Grid to Petascale Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2007-09-27

    This report, which summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007, includes discussion of overall progress, period goals, highlights, collaborations and presentations. To learn more about our project, please visit the Earth System Grid website. In addition, this report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC project management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) project management, national and international stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), etc.), and collaborators. The ESG-CET executive committee consists of David Bernholdt, ORNL; Ian Foster, ANL; Don Middleton, NCAR; and Dean Williams, LLNL. The ESG-CET team is a collective of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include seven laboratories (ANL, LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL, PMEL) and one university (ISI/USC); all work in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders and domain researchers and scientists. During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET increased its efforts on completing requirement documents, framework design, and component prototyping. As we strove to complete and expand the overall ESG-CET architectural plans and use-case scenarios to fit our constituency's scope of use, we continued to provide production-level services to the community. These services continued for IPCC AR4, CCES, and CCSM, and were extended to include Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) data.

  8. Characterizing hydrological activities over Yangtze River basin using the new HUST-Grace2016 model, MODIS, and NCEP/NCAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, H.; Luo, Z.; Tangdamrongsub, N.; He, L.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resource over the Yangtze River basin. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new gravity model, HUST-Grace06, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the hydrological activities over the Yangtze River basin. The approach includes the effective noise reduction and the leakage error mitigation based on forward modeling. The HUST-Grace06 derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the Yangtze River basin. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is incorporated with GRACE in the exploration of the climate induced hydrological activities. The comparison between GRACE and the MODIS-derived NDVI data is also conducted to investigate their connection regarding temporal and spatial distribution. The analysis suggests that the terrestrial reflectance data can be used to represent the TWS information. Importantly, such information can be used to fill the missing data in case of the early termination of GRACE or during the prelaunch of the GRACE Follow-On mission.

  9. Validation of the space fields and the median zonal of the temperature of the air in surface and of the precipitation in Colombia, simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

    2001-01-01

    This work presents an analysis of the basic fields of the surface temperature and the precipitation for the national territory, from two sources of information: the data originated by the national meteorological network and the generated ones at world-wide level by means of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project for the assimilation of data coming from diverse world-wide networks. With them reference scenes are constructed to validate the CCM3 model which is used like tool for the projection of the climatic change in Colombia

  10. Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

  11. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

    2017-12-01

    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  12. NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

    1998-01-01

    During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

  13. Infusion of Climate Change and Geospatial Science Concepts into Environmental and Biological Science Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaji Bhaskar, M. S.; Rosenzweig, J.; Shishodia, S.

    2017-12-01

    The objective of our activity is to improve the students understanding and interpretation of geospatial science and climate change concepts and its applications in the field of Environmental and Biological Sciences in the College of Science Engineering and Technology (COEST) at Texas Southern University (TSU) in Houston, TX. The courses of GIS for Environment, Ecology and Microbiology were selected for the curriculum infusion. A total of ten GIS hands-on lab modules, along with two NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) lab modules on climate change were implemented in the "GIS for Environment" course. GIS and Google Earth Labs along with climate change lectures were infused into Microbiology and Ecology courses. Critical thinking and empirical skills of the students were assessed in all the courses. The student learning outcomes of these courses includes the ability of students to interpret the geospatial maps and the student demonstration of knowledge of the basic principles and concepts of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and climate change. At the end of the courses, students developed a comprehensive understanding of the geospatial data, its applications in understanding climate change and its interpretation at the local and regional scales during multiple years.

  14. Research on the climatic effects of nuclear winter: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickinson, R.E.

    1986-01-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has undertaken a series of research efforts to develop and implement improvements to the Community Climate Model (CCM) needed to make the model more applicable to studies of the climatic effects of nuclear war. The development of the model improvements has reached a stage where implementation may proceed, and several of the developed routines are being incorporated into the next approved version of the CCM (CCM1). Formal documentation is being completed describing the specific model improvements that have been successfully implemented. This final report includes the series of annual proposals and progress reports that have guided the project

  15. Research on the climatic effects of nuclear winter: Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickinson, R.E.

    1986-12-03

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has undertaken a series of research efforts to develop and implement improvements to the Community Climate Model (CCM) needed to make the model more applicable to studies of the climatic effects of nuclear war. The development of the model improvements has reached a stage where implementation may proceed, and several of the developed routines are being incorporated into the next approved version of the CCM (CCM1). Formal documentation is being completed describing the specific model improvements that have been successfully implemented. This final report includes the series of annual proposals and progress reports that have guided the project.

  16. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  17. An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhongfeng

    2012-09-01

    An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

  18. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  19. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

  20. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  1. Coral Reef Habitat Suitability in Future Climate Scenarios from NCAR CESM1 considering a Suite of Biogeochemical Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, L. A.; Kleypas, J. A.; Miller, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    A maximum entropy species distribution model (Maxent) is used to describe coral reef habitat in current climate conditions and to predict changes to that habitat during the 21st century. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) were used with Maxent to determine environmental suitability for the family of corals Scleractina in 1° by 1° cells. Input environmental variables most suitable for representing coral habitat limitation are isolated using a principal component analysis and include cumulative thermal stress, salinity, light availability, current speed, phosphate levels and aragonite saturation state. Considering a suite of environmental variables allows for a more synergistic view of future habitat suitability, although individual variables are found to be limiting in certain areas- for example, aragonite saturation state is limiting at higher latitudes. Climate-driven coral reef habitat changes depend strongly on the oceanic region of interest and the region of corals used to train the niche model. Increased global coral habitat loss occurred in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections as time progressed through the 21th century. Maximum suitable habitat loss was 82% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When only Caribbean/Atlantic coral reef environmental data is applied globally, 88% of global habitat was lost by 2100 for RCP8.5. The global runs utilizing only Pacific Ocean reefs' ability to survive showed the most significant worldwide loss, 90% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When Maxent was trained with Indian Ocean reefs, an increase in suitable habitat worldwide was estimated. Habitat suitability was found to increase by 38% in RCP4.5 by 2100 and 28% in RCP8.5 by 2050. This suggests that shallow tropical sites in the Indian Ocean basin experience conditions today that are most similar to future worldwide climate projections. Indian Ocean reefs may be ideal candidate

  2. Flexible Environments for Grand-Challenge Simulation in Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierrehumbert, R.; Tobis, M.; Lin, J.; Dieterich, C.; Caballero, R.

    2004-12-01

    Current climate models are monolithic codes, generally in Fortran, aimed at high-performance simulation of the modern climate. Though they adequately serve their designated purpose, they present major barriers to application in other problems. Tailoring them to paleoclimate of planetary simulations, for instance, takes months of work. Theoretical studies, where one may want to remove selected processes or break feedback loops, are similarly hindered. Further, current climate models are of little value in education, since the implementation of textbook concepts and equations in the code is obscured by technical detail. The Climate Systems Center at the University of Chicago seeks to overcome these limitations by bringing modern object-oriented design into the business of climate modeling. Our ultimate goal is to produce an end-to-end modeling environment capable of configuring anything from a simple single-column radiative-convective model to a full 3-D coupled climate model using a uniform, flexible interface. Technically, the modeling environment is implemented as a Python-based software component toolkit: key number-crunching procedures are implemented as discrete, compiled-language components 'glued' together and co-ordinated by Python, combining the high performance of compiled languages and the flexibility and extensibility of Python. We are incrementally working towards this final objective following a series of distinct, complementary lines. We will present an overview of these activities, including PyOM, a Python-based finite-difference ocean model allowing run-time selection of different Arakawa grids and physical parameterizations; CliMT, an atmospheric modeling toolkit providing a library of 'legacy' radiative, convective and dynamical modules which can be knitted into dynamical models, and PyCCSM, a version of NCAR's Community Climate System Model in which the coupler and run-control architecture are re-implemented in Python, augmenting its flexibility

  3. Running climate model on a commercial cloud computing environment: A case study using Community Earth System Model (CESM) on Amazon AWS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiuhong; Huang, Xianglei; Jiao, Chaoyi; Flanner, Mark G.; Raeker, Todd; Palen, Brock

    2017-01-01

    The suites of numerical models used for simulating climate of our planet are usually run on dedicated high-performance computing (HPC) resources. This study investigates an alternative to the usual approach, i.e. carrying out climate model simulations on commercially available cloud computing environment. We test the performance and reliability of running the CESM (Community Earth System Model), a flagship climate model in the United States developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), on Amazon Web Service (AWS) EC2, the cloud computing environment by Amazon.com, Inc. StarCluster is used to create virtual computing cluster on the AWS EC2 for the CESM simulations. The wall-clock time for one year of CESM simulation on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster is comparable to the time spent for the same simulation on a local dedicated high-performance computing cluster with InfiniBand connections. The CESM simulation can be efficiently scaled with the number of CPU cores on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster environment up to 64 cores. For the standard configuration of the CESM at a spatial resolution of 1.9° latitude by 2.5° longitude, increasing the number of cores from 16 to 64 reduces the wall-clock running time by more than 50% and the scaling is nearly linear. Beyond 64 cores, the communication latency starts to outweigh the benefit of distributed computing and the parallel speedup becomes nearly unchanged.

  4. NCL - a workhorse for data analysis and visualization in climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier-Fleischer, Karin; Boettinger, Michael; Haley, Mary

    2015-04-01

    Coupled earth system models are used for simulating the climate system. In the context of international climate assessment and model intercomparison projects, extensive simulation data sets are produced and have to be analyzed. Supercomputers and storage systems are used over years to perform the simulations, but the data analysis usually takes even more time. Different classes of tools are used for the analysis and visualization of these big data sets. In this PICO, we focus on NCL (NCAR Command Language), an interpreted language developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. NCL allows performing standard analysis operations and producing graphical output in batch mode loosely coupled with the simulations. Thus, for visual monitoring of their simulations, many of DKRZ's users have integrated NCL into their modeling workflows. We present application examples from the tutorial we have developed that focus on typical visualizations of climate model data. Since NCL supports rectilinear, curvilinear and even unstructured grids, it is well prepared to facilitate the visualization of today's climate model data without prior interpolation. NCL includes many features common to modern programming languages, such as types, variables, operators, expressions, conditional statements, loops, and functions and procedures. It provides more than 600 built-in functions specifically for climate model data, facilitating analysis of scalar and vector quantities as well as numerous state-of-the-art 2D visualization methods (contour lines, filled areas, markers, wind arrows or barbs, weather symbols and many more). Important for Earth scientists is also NCL's capability to display data together with the corresponding map background and a choice of the map projection.

  5. Parallel analysis tools and new visualization techniques for ultra-large climate data set

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Middleton, Don [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Haley, Mary [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2014-12-10

    ParVis was a project funded under LAB 10-05: “Earth System Modeling: Advanced Scientific Visualization of Ultra-Large Climate Data Sets”. Argonne was the lead lab with partners at PNNL, SNL, NCAR and UC-Davis. This report covers progress from January 1st, 2013 through Dec 1st, 2014. Two previous reports covered the period from Summer, 2010, through September 2011 and October 2011 through December 2012, respectively. While the project was originally planned to end on April 30, 2013, personnel and priority changes allowed many of the institutions to continue work through FY14 using existing funds. A primary focus of ParVis was introducing parallelism to climate model analysis to greatly reduce the time-to-visualization for ultra-large climate data sets. Work in the first two years was conducted on two tracks with different time horizons: one track to provide immediate help to climate scientists already struggling to apply their analysis to existing large data sets and another focused on building a new data-parallel library and tool for climate analysis and visualization that will give the field a platform for performing analysis and visualization on ultra-large datasets for the foreseeable future. In the final 2 years of the project, we focused mostly on the new data-parallel library and associated tools for climate analysis and visualization.

  6. Challenges in the Management and Stewardship of Airborne Observational Data at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, J.; Daniels, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) funding for the operation, maintenance and upgrade of two research aircraft: the NSF/NCAR High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Gulfstream V and the NSF/NCAR Hercules C-130. A suite of in-situ and remote sensing airborne instruments housed at the EOL Research Aviation Facility (RAF) provide a basic set of measurements that are typically deployed on most airborne field campaigns. In addition, instruments to address more specific research requirements are provided by collaborating participants from universities, industry, NASA, NOAA or other agencies (referred to as Principal Investigator, or PI, instruments). At the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, a poster (IN13B-3639) was presented outlining the components of Airborne Data Management included field phase data collection, formats, data archival and documentation, version control, storage practices, stewardship and obsolete data formats, and public data access. This talk will cover lessons learned, challenges associated with the above components, and current developments to address these challenges, including: tracking data workflows for aircraft instrumentation to facilitate identification, and correction, of gaps in these workflows; implementation of dataset versioning guidelines; and assignment of Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) to data and instrumentation to facilitate tracking data and facility use in publications.

  7. Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Govindasamy, B.; Thompson, S.; Mirin, A.; Wickett, M.; Caldeira, K.; Delire, C.

    2005-01-01

    Coupled climate and carbon cycle modelling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in greater warming. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year 2100 global warming in the range of 0 to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO 2 content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA), the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our integrated model, for scenarios with year 2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO 2 emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases are 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO 2 content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K

  8. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  9. Analysis of Climatic and Environmental Changes Using CLEARS Web-GIS Information-Computational System: Siberia Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, A. G.; Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I.; Shulgina, T. M.

    2011-12-01

    Analysis of recent climatic and environmental changes in Siberia performed on the basis of the CLEARS (CLimate and Environment Analysis and Research System) information-computational system is presented. The system was developed using the specialized software framework for rapid development of thematic information-computational systems based on Web-GIS technologies. It comprises structured environmental datasets, computational kernel, specialized web portal implementing web mapping application logic, and graphical user interface. Functional capabilities of the system include a number of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, data processing and visualization. At present a number of georeferenced datasets is available for processing including two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 and ERA Interim Reanalysis, meteorological observation data for the territory of the former USSR, and others. Firstly, using functionality of the computational kernel employing approved statistical methods it was shown that the most reliable spatio-temporal characteristics of surface temperature and precipitation in Siberia in the second half of 20th and beginning of 21st centuries are provided by ERA-40/ERA Interim Reanalysis and APHRODITE JMA Reanalysis, respectively. Namely those Reanalyses are statistically consistent with reliable in situ meteorological observations. Analysis of surface temperature and precipitation dynamics for the territory of Siberia performed on the base of the developed information-computational system reveals fine spatial and temporal details in heterogeneous patterns obtained for the region earlier. Dynamics of bioclimatic indices determining climate change impact on structure and functioning of regional vegetation cover was investigated as well. Analysis shows significant positive trends of growing season length accompanied by statistically significant increase of sum of growing degree days and total

  10. Interactive Correlation Analysis and Visualization of Climate Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Kwan-Liu [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    2016-09-21

    The relationship between our ability to analyze and extract insights from visualization of climate model output and the capability of the available resources to make those visualizations has reached a crisis point. The large volume of data currently produced by climate models is overwhelming the current, decades-old visualization workflow. The traditional methods for visualizing climate output also have not kept pace with changes in the types of grids used, the number of variables involved, and the number of different simulations performed with a climate model or the feature-richness of high-resolution simulations. This project has developed new and faster methods for visualization in order to get the most knowledge out of the new generation of high-resolution climate models. While traditional climate images will continue to be useful, there is need for new approaches to visualization and analysis of climate data if we are to gain all the insights available in ultra-large data sets produced by high-resolution model output and ensemble integrations of climate models such as those produced for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Towards that end, we have developed new visualization techniques for performing correlation analysis. We have also introduced highly scalable, parallel rendering methods for visualizing large-scale 3D data. This project was done jointly with climate scientists and visualization researchers at Argonne National Laboratory and NCAR.

  11. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  12. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  13. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  14. Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial 2016 Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois [Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (CGD), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2017-05-09

    For the 2016 tutorial, NCAR/CGD requested a total budget of $70,000 split equally between DOE and NSF. The funds were used to support student participation (travel, lodging, per diem, etc.). Lectures and practical session support was primarily provided by local participants at no additional cost (see list below). The seventh annual Community Earth System Model (CESM) tutorial (2016) for students and early career scientists was held 8 – 12 August 2016. As has been the case over the last few years, this event was extremely successful and there was greater demand than could be met. There was continued interest in support of the NSF’s EaSM Infrastructure awards, to train these awardees in the application of the CESM. Based on suggestions from previous tutorial participants, the 2016 tutorial experience again provided direct connection to Yellowstone for each individual participant (rather than pairs), and used the NCAR Mesa Library. The 2016 tutorial included lectures on simulating the climate system and practical sessions on running CESM, modifying components, and analyzing data. These were targeted to the graduate student level. In addition, specific talks (“Application” talks) were introduced this year to provide participants with some in-depth knowledge of some specific aspects of CESM.

  15. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  16. Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

    2012-04-01

    At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

  17. The Climate-G testbed: towards a large scale data sharing environment for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloisio, G.; Fiore, S.; Denvil, S.; Petitdidier, M.; Fox, P.; Schwichtenberg, H.; Blower, J.; Barbera, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Climate-G testbed provides an experimental large scale data environment for climate change addressing challenging data and metadata management issues. The main scope of Climate-G is to allow scientists to carry out geographical and cross-institutional climate data discovery, access, visualization and sharing. Climate-G is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving both climate and computer scientists and it currently involves several partners such as: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Fraunhofer Institut für Algorithmen und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen (SCAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Reading, University of Catania and University of Salento. To perform distributed metadata search and discovery, we adopted a CMCC metadata solution (which provides a high level of scalability, transparency, fault tolerance and autonomy) leveraging both on P2P and grid technologies (GRelC Data Access and Integration Service). Moreover, data are available through OPeNDAP/THREDDS services, Live Access Server as well as the OGC compliant Web Map Service and they can be downloaded, visualized, accessed into the proposed environment through the Climate-G Data Distribution Centre (DDC), the web gateway to the Climate-G digital library. The DDC is a data-grid portal allowing users to easily, securely and transparently perform search/discovery, metadata management, data access, data visualization, etc. Godiva2 (integrated into the DDC) displays 2D maps (and animations) and also exports maps for display on the Google Earth virtual globe. Presently, Climate-G publishes (through the DDC) about 2TB of data related to the ENSEMBLES project (also including distributed replicas of data) as well as to the IPCC AR4. The main results of the proposed work are: wide data access/sharing environment for climate change; P2P/grid metadata approach; production-level Climate-G DDC; high quality tools for

  18. SciDAC's Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Semiannual Progress Report October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2011-04-02

    This report summarizes work carried out by the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) from October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011. It discusses ESG-CET highlights for the reporting period, overall progress, period goals, and collaborations, and lists papers and presentations. To learn more about our project and to find previous reports, please visit the ESG-CET Web sites: http://esg-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ and/or https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/esgcet/Home. This report will be forwarded to managers in the Department of Energy (DOE) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program and the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), as well as national and international collaborators and stakeholders (e.g., those involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES); SciDAC II: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science; the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP); the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)), and also to researchers working on a variety of other climate model and observation evaluation activities. The ESG-CET executive committee consists of Dean N. Williams, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Ian Foster, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); and Don Middleton, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The ESG-CET team is a group of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include eight laboratories and two universities: ANL, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), LLNL, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NCAR, Oak Ridge National

  19. SciDAC's Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Semi-Annual Progress Report for the Period April 1, 2009 through September 30, 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, I. T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Middleton, D. E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2009-10-15

    This report summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2009 through September 30, 2009. It includes discussion of highlights, overall progress, period goals, collaborations, papers, and presentations. To learn more about our project, and to find previous reports, please visit the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) website. This report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC program management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) program management, national and international collaborators and stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), the SciDAC II: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science, the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), and other wide-ranging climate model evaluation activities). During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET team continued its efforts to complete software components needed for the ESG Gateway and Data Node. These components include: Data Versioning, Data Replication, DataMover-Lite (DML) and Bulk Data Mover (BDM), Metrics, Product Services, and Security, all joining together to form ESG-CET's first beta release. The launch of the beta release is scheduled for late October with the installation of ESG Gateways at NCAR and LLNL/PCMDI. Using the developed ESG Data Publisher, the ESG II CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) data holdings - approximately 35 TB - will be among the first datasets to be published into the new ESG enterprise system. In addition, the NCAR's ESG II data holdings will also be published into the new system - approximately 200 TB. This period also saw the testing of the ESG Data Node at various collaboration sites, including: the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, the University of Tokyo

  20. Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

  1. Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

    2012-04-01

    One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

  2. Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

    2016-12-01

    To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

  3. Impact relevance and usability of high resolution climate modeling and data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnott, James C. [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States)

    2016-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Impact Relevance and Usability of High-Resolution Climate Modeling and Datasets,” on August 2-7, 2015 in Aspen, CO. Kate Calvin (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), Andrew Jones (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) and Jean-François Lamarque (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The meeting included the participation of 29 scientists for a total of 145 participant days. Following the workshop, workshop co-chairs authored a meeting report published in Eos on April 27, 2016. Insights from the workshop directly contributed to the formation of a new DOE-supported project co-led by workshop co-chair Andy Jones. A subset of meeting participants continue to work on a publication on institutional innovations that can support the usability of high resolution modeling, among other sources of climate information.

  4. Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

    2017-04-01

    Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

  5. Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Abbott, Mark; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Atlas, Robert; Brasseur, Guy; Bruhwiler, Lori; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Butler, James H.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Cooke, Roger; Cucurull, Lidia; Davis, Sean M.; English, Jason M.; Fahey, David W.; Fine, Steven S.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Liang, Shunlin; Loeb, Norman G.; Rignot, Eric; Soden, Brian; Stanitski, Diane; Stephens, Graeme; Tapley, Byron D.; Thompson, Anne M.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Wuebbles, Donald

    2018-01-01

    Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

  6. Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schneider

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP and export production (EP of particulate organic carbon (POC. Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation. Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006 with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

  7. A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee

    2010-02-01

    Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

  8. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  9. Impacts of Subgrid Heterogeneous Mixing between Cloud Liquid and Ice on the Wegner-Bergeron-Findeisen Process and Mixed-phase Clouds in NCAR CAM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, D.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Mixed-phase clouds are persistently observed over the Arctic and the phase partitioning between cloud liquid and ice hydrometeors in mixed-phase clouds has important impacts on the surface energy budget and Arctic climate. In this study, we test the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) with the single-column and weather forecast configurations and evaluate the model performance against observation data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's M-PACE field campaign in October 2004 and long-term ground-based multi-sensor remote sensing measurements. Like most global climate models, we find that CAM5 also poorly simulates the phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds by significantly underestimating the cloud liquid water content. Assuming pocket structures in the distribution of cloud liquid and ice in mixed-phase clouds as suggested by in situ observations provides a plausible solution to improve the model performance by reducing the Wegner-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process rate. In this study, the modification of the WBF process in the CAM5 model has been achieved with applying a stochastic perturbation to the time scale of the WBF process relevant to both ice and snow to account for the heterogeneous mixture of cloud liquid and ice. Our results show that this modification of WBF process improves the modeled phase partitioning in the mixed-phase clouds. The seasonal variation of mixed-phase cloud properties is also better reproduced in the model in comparison with the long-term ground-based remote sensing observations. Furthermore, the phase partitioning is insensitive to the reassignment time step of perturbations.

  10. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  11. Interoperable Access to NCAR Research Data Archive Collections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, D.; Ji, Z.; Worley, S. J.; Manross, K.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA) provides free access to 600+ observational and gridded dataset collections. The RDA is designed to support atmospheric and related sciences research, updated frequently where datasets have ongoing production, and serves data to 10,000 unique users annually. The traditional data access options include web-based direct archive file downloads, user selected data subsets and format conversions produced by server-side computations, and client and cURL-based APIs for routine scripted data retrieval. To enhance user experience and utility, the RDA now also offers THREDDS Data Server (TDS) access for many highly valued dataset collections. TDS offered datasets are presented as aggregations, enabling users to access an entire dataset collection, that can be comprised of 1000's of files, through a single virtual file. The OPeNDAP protocol, supported by the TDS, allows compatible tools to open and access these virtual files remotely, and make the native data file format transparent to the end user. The combined functionality (TDS/OPeNDAP) gives users the ability to browse, select, visualize, and download data from a complete dataset collection without having to transfer archive files to a local host. This presentation will review the TDS basics and describe the specific TDS implementation on the RDA's diverse archive of GRIB-1, GRIB-2, and gridded NetCDF formatted dataset collections. Potential future TDS implementation on in-situ observational dataset collections will be discussed. Illustrative sample cases will be used to highlight the end users benefits from this interoperable data access to the RDA.

  12. Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnott, James [AGCI

    2015-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

  13. An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xue, Yan; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Boyin; Wen, Caihong [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information System, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David; Nadiga, Sudhir [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-12-15

    At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5 x 0.5 ) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of

  14. The future of climate science analysis in a coming era of exascale computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, S. C.; Strand, G.

    2013-12-01

    Projections of Community Earth System Model (CESM) output based on the growth of data archived over 2000-2012 at all of our computing sites (NCAR, NERSC, ORNL) show that we can expect to reach 1,000 PB (1 EB) sometime in the next decade or so. The current paradigms of using site-based archival systems to hold these data that are then accessed via portals or gateways, downloading the data to a local system, and then processing/analyzing the data will be irretrievably broken before then. From a climate modeling perspective, the expertise involved in making climate models themselves efficient on HPC systems will need to be applied to the data as well - providing fast parallel analysis tools co-resident in memory with the data, because the disk I/O bandwidth simply will not keep up with the expected arrival of exaflop systems. The ability of scientists, analysts, stakeholders and others to use climate model output to turn these data into understanding and knowledge will require significant advances in the current typical analysis tools and packages to enable these processes for these vast volumes of data. Allowing data users to enact their own analyses on model output is virtually a requirement as well - climate modelers cannot anticipate all the possibilities for analysis that users may want to do. In addition, the expertise of data scientists, and their knowledge of the model output and their knowledge of best practices in data management (metadata, curation, provenance and so on) will need to be rewarded and exploited to gain the most understanding possible from these volumes of data. In response to growing data size, demand, and future projections, the CESM output has undergone a structure evolution and the data management plan has been reevaluated and updated. The major evolution of the CESM data structure is presented here, along with the CESM experience and role within the CMIP3/CMIP5.

  15. INTRODUCTION: Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    Geoengineering techniques for countering climate change have been receiving much press recently as a `Plan B' if a global deal to tackle climate change is not agreed at the COP15 negotiations in Copenhagen this December. However, the field is controversial as the methods may have unforeseen consequences, potentially making temperatures rise in some regions or reducing rainfall, and many aspects remain under-researched. This focus issue of Environmental Research Letters is a collection of research articles, invited by David Keith, University of Calgary, and Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution, that present and evaluate different methods for engineering the Earth's climate. Not only do the letters in this issue highlight various methods of climate engineering but they also detail the arguments for and against climate engineering as a concept. Further reading Focus on Geoengineering at http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/subject/tag=geoengineering IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science is an open-access proceedings service available at www.iop.org/EJ/journal/ees Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System Contents Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming David L Mitchell and William Finnegan Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change Andrew Ross and H Damon Matthews Researching geoengineering: should not or could not? Martin Bunzl Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering H Damon Matthews and Sarah E Turner Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research David R Morrow, Robert E Kopp and Michael Oppenheimer On the possible use of geoengineering to moderate specific climate change impacts Michael C MacCracken The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone P Heckendorn, D Weisenstein, S Fueglistaler, B P Luo, E Rozanov, M Schraner, L W Thomason and T Peter The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered

  16. Safety climate and culture: Integrating psychological and systems perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Tristan; Griffin, Mark A; Flatau Harrison, Huw; Neal, Andrew

    2017-07-01

    Safety climate research has reached a mature stage of development, with a number of meta-analyses demonstrating the link between safety climate and safety outcomes. More recently, there has been interest from systems theorists in integrating the concept of safety culture and to a lesser extent, safety climate into systems-based models of organizational safety. Such models represent a theoretical and practical development of the safety climate concept by positioning climate as part of a dynamic work system in which perceptions of safety act to constrain and shape employee behavior. We propose safety climate and safety culture constitute part of the enabling capitals through which organizations build safety capability. We discuss how organizations can deploy different configurations of enabling capital to exert control over work systems and maintain safe and productive performance. We outline 4 key strategies through which organizations to reconcile the system control problems of promotion versus prevention, and stability versus flexibility. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. A comparison of simulation results from two terrestrial carbon cycle models using three climate data sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Akihiko; Sasai, Takahiro

    2006-01-01

    This study addressed how different climate data sets influence simulations of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. For the period 1982-2001, we compared the results of simulations based on three climate data sets (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ERA40) employed in meteorological, ecological and biogeochemical studies and two different models (BEAMS and Sim-CYCLE). The models differed in their parameterizations of photosynthetic and phenological processes but used the same surface climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, temperature and precipitation), vegetation, soil and topography data. The three data sets give different climatic conditions, especially for shortwave radiation, in terms of long-term means, linear trends and interannual variability. Consequently, the simulation results for global net primary productivity varied by 16%-43% only from differences in the climate data sets, especially in these regions where the shortwave radiation data differed markedly: differences in the climate data set can strongly influence simulation results. The differences among the climate data set and between the two models resulted in slightly different spatial distribution and interannual variability in the net ecosystem carbon budget. To minimize uncertainty, we should pay attention to the specific climate data used. We recommend developing an accurate standard climate data set for simulation studies

  18. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  19. Management system, organizational climate and performance relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, B. D.

    1979-01-01

    Seven aerospace firms were investigated to determine if a relationship existed among management systems, organizational climate, and organization performance. Positive relationships were found between each of these variables, but a statistically significant relationship existed only between the management system and organizational climate. The direction and amount of communication and the degree of decentralized decision-making, elements of the management system, also had a statistically significant realtionship with organization performance.

  20. Development of a methodology to assess the climate evolution and its impacts on wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simard, I. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada); Yu, W. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). Meteorological Research Div.; Gagnon, Y. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). K.C. Irving Chair in Sustainable Development

    2010-07-01

    Maps of wind resources were used to develop a method of evaluating climatic changes and their potential impacts on wind energy resources. Global IPCC climate change scenarios were used to predict climatic conditions for the future, while past wind resource availability was simulated and validated using NCEP and NCAR reanalysis data as well as observed meteorological data from Environment Canada. The simulations were used to compare each 5-year period with a 50-year reference period. Regional scale climate change impacts were evaluated using a statistical dynamic down-scaling method. Advanced meteorological models were used to predict wind flow patterns across specific landscapes. The evolution of past wind resource availability was then simulated. Five-year wind resource simulations for a 50-year period were simulated at 25 km{sup 2} wind speeds at 80 m above the ground. Average wind speed variations were then evaluated. The method has been used to simulate 5-year periods within a 50-year reference period in New Brunswick. Further studies will be conducted to simulate future wind resources availability. tabs., figs.

  1. Detecting Arctic Climate Change Using Koeppen Climate Classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, M. [Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States); Overland, J.E. [NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, Washington (United States)

    2004-11-01

    Ecological impacts of the recent warming trend in the Arctic are already noted as changes in tree line and a decrease in tundra area with the replacement of ground cover by shrubs in northern Alaska and several locations in northern Eurasia. The potential impact of vegetation changes to feedbacks on the atmospheric climate system is substantial because of the large land area impacted and the multi-year persistence of the vegetation cover. Satellite NDVI estimates beginning in 1981 and the Koeppen climate classification, which relates surface types to monthly mean air temperatures from 1901 onward, track these changes on an Arctic-wide basis. Temperature fields from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU analysis serve as proxy for vegetation cover over the century. A downward trend in the coverage of tundra group for the first 40 yr of the twentieth century was followed by two increases during 1940s and early 1960s, and then a rapid decrease in the last 20 yr. The decrease of tundra group in the 1920-40 period was localized, mostly over Scandinavia; whereas the decrease since 1990 is primarily pan-Arctic, but largest in NW Canada, and eastern and coastal Siberia. The decrease in inferred tundra coverage from 1980 to 2000 was 1.4 x 106 km{sup 2}, or about a 20% reduction in tundra area based on the CRU analyses. This rate of decrease is confirmed by the NDVI data. These tundra group changes in the last 20 yr are accompanied by increase in the area of both the boreal and temperate groups. During the tundra group decrease in the first half of the century boreal group area also decreased while temperate group area increased. The calculated minimum coverage of tundra group from both the Koeppen classification and NDVI indicates that the impact of warming on the spatial coverage of the tundra group in the 1990s is the strongest in the century, and will have multi-decadal consequences for the Arctic.

  2. Climatology (communication arising): Rural land-use change and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2004-01-01

    Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

  3. Climatology (communication arising): rural land-use change and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E

    2004-01-15

    Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

  4. DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED SYSTEM OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novikova L.V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The scientific work is devoted to the analysis and development of the automated control system of the climatic conditions of the minites. The analysis of existing automated control systems is carried out, in particular attention is paid to the systems of climate control of greenhouses. The technical means of the control system are determined. As a platform, Arduino®Uno is selected.

  5. Applying "Climate" system to teaching basic climatology and raising public awareness of climate change issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

    2016-04-01

    While there is a strong demand for innovation in digital learning, available training programs in the environmental sciences have no time to adapt to rapid changes in the domain content. A joint group of scientists and university teachers develops and implements an educational environment for new learning experiences in basics of climatic science and its applications. This so-called virtual learning laboratory "Climate" contains educational materials and interactive training courses developed to provide undergraduate and graduate students with profound understanding of changes in regional climate and environment. The main feature of this Laboratory is that students perform their computational tasks on climate modeling and evaluation and assessment of climate change using the typical tools of the "Climate" information-computational system, which are usually used by real-life practitioners performing such kind of research. Students have an opportunity to perform computational laboratory works using information-computational tools of the system and improve skills of their usage simultaneously with mastering the subject. We did not create an artificial learning environment to pass the trainings. On the contrary, the main purpose of association of the educational block and computational information system was to familiarize students with the real existing technologies for monitoring and analysis of data on the state of the climate. Trainings are based on technologies and procedures which are typical for Earth system sciences. Educational courses are designed to permit students to conduct their own investigations of ongoing and future climate changes in a manner that is essentially identical to the techniques used by national and international climate research organizations. All trainings are supported by lectures, devoted to the basic aspects of modern climatology, including analysis of current climate change and its possible impacts ensuring effective links between

  6. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  7. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  8. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  9. System and Method for Providing a Climate Data Persistence Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnase, John L. (Inventor); Ripley, III, William David (Inventor); Duffy, Daniel Q. (Inventor); Thompson, John H. (Inventor); Strong, Savannah L. (Inventor); McInerney, Mark (Inventor); Sinno, Scott (Inventor); Tamkin, Glenn S. (Inventor); Nadeau, Denis (Inventor)

    2018-01-01

    A system, method and computer-readable storage devices for providing a climate data persistence service. A system configured to provide the service can include a climate data server that performs data and metadata storage and management functions for climate data objects, a compute-storage platform that provides the resources needed to support a climate data server, provisioning software that allows climate data server instances to be deployed as virtual climate data servers in a cloud computing environment, and a service interface, wherein persistence service capabilities are invoked by software applications running on a client device. The climate data objects can be in various formats, such as International Organization for Standards (ISO) Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model Submission Information Packages, Archive Information Packages, and Dissemination Information Packages. The climate data server can enable scalable, federated storage, management, discovery, and access, and can be tailored for particular use cases.

  10. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

  11. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-01-01

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

  12. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2010-12-15

    The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

  13. How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

    2013-09-01

    In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while

  14. Black Sea's wind wave parameters derived from numerical simulations driven by NCEP/NCAR and NCEP CFSR reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gippius, Fedor; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Stoliarova, Elena; Arkhipkin, Victor

    2017-04-01

    This study is focused on typical features of spatiotemporal distribution of wind wave parameters on the Black Sea. These parameters were calculated during two experiments using the third-generation spectral wind wave model SWAN. During the first run a 5x5 km rectangular grid covering the entire Black Sea was used. Forcing parameters - wind speed and direction - were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period between 1948 and 2010. During the second run high resolution wind fields form the NCEP-CFSR reanalysis were used as forcing for the period from 1979 till 2010. For the period form 2011 till 2015 the second version of this reanalysis was used. The computations were performed on an unstructured computational grid with cell size depending on the sea depth. The distance between grid points varies from 10—15 km in deep-water regions till 500 m in coastal areas. Calculated values of significant wave heights (SWH) obtained during both runs were validated against instrumental measurements data. In the first case we used satellite altimetry data from the AVISO project. It turned out that calculated SWH values are typically lower than observed ones - the deviation between them was 0.3 m on the average, its maximum was of 1.67 m. Therefore, an empirical formula was applied to correct the modeling results obtained during the first experiment. For the second experiment in situ measurements performed by a Datawell buoy installed 7 km off the city Gelendzhik were used for validation. The comparison of measured and modelled values of SWH shows a good agreement between these parameters in this case. No correction was applied to the results of the second experiment. We applied the results of the NCEP/NCAR experiment to assess various features of the wave climate of the entire Black Sea. Thus, maximal SWH are observed in winter and autumn in two areas in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the sea; SWH values in these areas exceed 9 m. To define areas with most

  15. Projected climatic changes on drought conditions over Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

    2017-04-01

    In a context of global warming, the evapotranspiration processes will have a strong influence on drought severity. For this reason, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was computed at different timescales in order to explore the projected drought changes for the main watersheds in Spain. For that, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in order to obtain current (1980-2010) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) climate output fields. WRF model was used over a domain that spans the Iberian Peninsula with a spatial resolution of 0.088°, and nested in the coarser 0.44° EURO-CORDEX domain, and driving by the global bias-corrected climate model output data from version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1), using two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Besides, to examine the behavior of this drought index, a comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which does not consider the evapotranspiration effects, was also performed. Additionally the relationship between the SPEI index and the soil moisture has also been analyzed. The results of this study suggest an increase in the severity and duration of drought, being larger when the SPEI index is used to define drought events. This fact confirms the relevance of taking into account the evapotranspiration processes to detect future drought events. The results also show a noticeable relationship between the SPEI and the simulated soil moisture content, which is more significant at higher timescales. Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Projections, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

  16. The effect of a giant wind farm on precipitation in a regional climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiedler, B H; Bukovsky, M S

    2011-01-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to study the effect of a giant wind farm on warm-season precipitation in the eastern two-thirds of the USA. The boundary conditions for WRF are supplied by 62 years of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) global reanalysis. In the model, the presence of a mid-west wind farm, either giant or small, can have an enormous impact on the weather and the amount of precipitation for one season, which is consistent with the known sensitivity of long-term weather forecasts to initial conditions. The effect on climate is less strong. In the average precipitation of 62 warm seasons, there is a statistically significant 1.0% enhancement of precipitation in a multi-state area surrounding and to the south-east of the wind farm.

  17. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  18. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  19. Is the climate system an anticipatory system that minimizes free energy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Sergio; Crucifix, Michel

    2017-04-01

    All systems, whether they are alive or not are structured determined systems, i.e. their present states [x (t)] depends of past states [x (t - α)]. However it has been suggested [Rosen, 1985; Friston, 2013] that systems that contain life are capable of anticipation and active inference. The underlying principle is that state changes in living systems are best modelled as a function of past and future states [ x(t) = f (x (t - α), x(t), x (t + β)) ]. The reason for this is that living systems contain a predictive model of their ambiance on which they are active: they appear to model their ambiance to preserve their integrity and homeorhesis. We therefore formulate the following hypothesis: can the climate system be interpreted as an anticipatory system that minimizes free energy? Can its variability (catastrophe, bifurcation and/or tipping points) be interpreted in terms of active inference and anticipation failure? Here we present a mathematical formulation of the climate system as an anticipatory system that minimizes free energy and its possible implication in the future climate predictability. References Rosen, R. (1985). Anticipatory systems. In Anticipatory systems (pp. 313-370). Springer New York. Friston, K. (2013). Life as we know it. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 10(86), 20130475.

  20. On the Representation of Cloud Phase in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, Trude; Sagoo, Navjit; Tan, Ivy

    2016-04-01

    Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

  1. The impact of climate change on the European energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowling, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

  2. Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudakov, I.; Vakulenko, S. A.; Golden, K. M.

    2015-05-01

    Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo - a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a conceptual sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point - an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a bifurcation analysis of the energy balance climate model with ice-albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to bifurcation points.

  3. Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda S. Heath; Sarah M. Anderson; Marla R. Emery; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Jeremy Littell; Alan Lucier; Jeffrey G. Masek; David L. Peterson; Richard Pouyat; Kevin M. Potter; Guy Robertson; Jinelle Sperry; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Sarah Jovan; Miranda H. Mockrin; Robert Musselman; Bethany K. Schulz; Robert J. Smith; Susan I. Stewart

    2015-01-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including...

  4. The resilience of integrated agricultural systems to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Cohn, Avery S.; Duncan, John; Newton, Peter; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    We reviewed studies addressing the extent to which more integrated agricultural systems (IAS) have been found to be more resilient to climate variability and climate change than more specialized agricultural systems. We found limited literature directly addressing the topic, necessitating the use of

  5. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahn, Olivier; Edwards, Neil R.; Knutti, Reto; Stocker, Thomas F.

    2011-01-01

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. - Research Highlights: → Preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction. → This could be achieved through strong changes in the energy mix. → Similar results would apply to any climate system tipping points.

  6. CLARREO shortwave observing system simulation experiments of the twenty-first century: Simulator design and implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, D.R.; Algieri, C.A.; Ong, J.R.; Collins, W.D.

    2011-04-01

    Projected changes in the Earth system will likely be manifested in changes in reflected solar radiation. This paper introduces an operational Observational System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) to calculate the signals of future climate forcings and feedbacks in top-of-atmosphere reflectance spectra. The OSSE combines simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report for the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) with the MODTRAN radiative transfer code to calculate reflectance spectra for simulations of current and future climatic conditions over the 21st century. The OSSE produces narrowband reflectances and broadband fluxes, the latter of which have been extensively validated against archived CCSM results. The shortwave reflectance spectra contain atmospheric features including signals from water vapor, liquid and ice clouds, and aerosols. The spectra are also strongly influenced by the surface bidirectional reflectance properties of predicted snow and sea ice and the climatological seasonal cycles of vegetation. By comparing and contrasting simulated reflectance spectra based on emissions scenarios with increasing projected and fixed present-day greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, we find that prescribed forcings from increases in anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols are detectable and are spatially confined to lower latitudes. Also, changes in the intertropical convergence zone and poleward shifts in the subsidence zones and the storm tracks are all detectable along with large changes in snow cover and sea ice fraction. These findings suggest that the proposed NASA Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission to measure shortwave reflectance spectra may help elucidate climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks.

  7. Algorithm of dynamic regulation of a system of duct, for a high accuracy climatic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbatskiy, A. A.; Afonina, G. N.; Glazov, V. S.

    2017-11-01

    Currently, major part of climatic system, are stationary in projected mode only. At the same time, many modern industrial sites, require constant or periodical changes in technological process. That is 80% of the time, the industrial site is not require ventilation system in projected mode and high precision of climatic parameters must maintain. While that not constantly is in use for climatic systems, which use in parallel for different rooms, we will be have a problem for balance of duct system. For this problem, was created the algorithm for quantity regulation, with minimal changes. Dynamic duct system: Developed of parallel control system of air balance, with high precision of climatic parameters. The Algorithm provide a permanent pressure in main duct, in different a flow of air. Therefore, the ending devises air flow have only one parameter for regulation - flaps open area. Precision of regulation increase and the climatic system provide high precision for temperature and humidity (0,5C for temperature, 5% for relative humidity). Result: The research has been made in CFD-system - PHOENICS. Results for velocity of air in duct, for pressure of air in duct for different operation mode, has been obtained. Equation for air valves positions, with different parameters for climate in room’s, has been obtained. Energy saving potential for dynamic duct system, for different types of a rooms, has been calculated.

  8. Vulnerability of ecological systems for nuclear war climatic consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharuehll, M.; Khatchinson, T.; Kropper, U.; Kharuehll, K.

    1988-01-01

    Vulnerability of ecological systems of Northern hemisphere (terrestrial, aquatic and tropical) as well as Southern one in relation to climatic changes following large nuclear war is considered. When analyzing potential sensitivity of ecological systems to climatic changes, possible consequences are considered for different stress categories under various war scenarios. The above-mentioned stresses correspond to those adopted in published work by Pittok and others. To estimate the less important climatic disturbances a few additional computer-simulated models are developed

  9. Development and validation of climate change system thinking instrument (CCSTI) for measuring system thinking on climate change content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meilinda; Rustaman, N. Y.; Firman, H.; Tjasyono, B.

    2018-05-01

    The Climate Change System Thinking Instrument (CCSTI) is developed to measure a system thinking ability in the concept of climate change. CCSTI is developed in four phase’s development including instrument draft development, validation and evaluation including readable material test, expert validation, and field test. The result of field test is analyzed by looking at the readability score in Cronbach’s alpha test. Draft instrument is tested on college students majoring in Biology Education, Physics Education, and Chemistry Education randomly with a total number of 80 college students. Score of Content Validation Index at 0.86, which means that the CCSTI developed are categorized as very appropriate with question indicators and Cronbach’s alpha about 0.605 which mean categorized undesirable to minimal acceptable. From 45 questions of system thinking, there are 37 valid questions spread in four indicators of system thinking, which are system thinking phase I (pre-requirement), system thinking phase II (basic), system thinking phase III (intermediate), and system thinking phase IV (coherent expert).

  10. Climate Intervention as an Optimization Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Ken; Ban-Weiss, George A.

    2010-05-01

    Typically, climate models simulations of intentional intervention in the climate system have taken the approach of imposing a change (eg, in solar flux, aerosol concentrations, aerosol emissions) and then predicting how that imposed change might affect Earth's climate or chemistry. Computations proceed from cause to effect. However, humans often proceed from "What do I want?" to "How do I get it?" One approach to thinking about intentional intervention in the climate system ("geoengineering") is to ask "What kind of climate do we want?" and then ask "What pattern of radiative forcing would come closest to achieving that desired climate state?" This involves defining climate goals and a cost function that measures how closely those goals are attained. (An important next step is to ask "How would we go about producing these desired patterns of radiative forcing?" However, this question is beyond the scope of our present study.) We performed a variety of climate simulations in NCAR's CAM3.1 atmospheric general circulation model with a slab ocean model and thermodynamic sea ice model. We then evaluated, for a specific set of climate forcing basis functions (ie, aerosol concentration distributions), the extent to which the climate response to a linear combination of those basis functions was similar to a linear combination of the climate response to each basis function taken individually. We then developed several cost functions (eg, relative to the 1xCO2 climate, minimize rms difference in zonal and annual mean land temperature, minimize rms difference in zonal and annual mean runoff, minimize rms difference in a combination of these temperature and runoff indices) and then predicted optimal combinations of our basis functions that would minimize these cost functions. Lastly, we produced forward simulations of the predicted optimal radiative forcing patterns and compared these with our expected results. Obviously, our climate model is much simpler than reality and

  11. Performance investigation of solid desiccant evaporative cooling system configurations in different climatic zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, Muzaffar; Vukovic, Vladimir; Sheikh, Nadeem Ahmed; Ali, Hafiz M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Five configurations of a DEC system are analyzed in five climate zones. • DEC system model configurations are developed in Dymola/Modelica. • Performance analysis predicted a suitable DEC system configuration for each climate zone. • Results show that climate of Vienna, Sao Paulo, and Adelaide favors the ventilated-dunkle cycle. • While ventilation cycle configuration suits the climate of Karachi and Shanghai. - Abstract: Performance of desiccant evaporative cooling (DEC) system configurations is strongly influenced by the climate conditions and varies widely in different climate zones. Finding the optimal configuration of DEC systems for a specific climatic zone is tedious and time consuming. This investigation conducts performance analysis of five DEC system configurations under climatic conditions of five cities from different zones: Vienna, Karachi, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, and Adelaide. On the basis of operating cycle, three standard and two modified system configurations (ventilation, recirculation, dunkle cycles; ventilated-recirculation and ventilated-dunkle cycles) are analyzed in these five climate zones. Using an advance equation-based object-oriented (EOO) modeling and simulation approach, optimal configurations of a DEC system are determined for each climate zone. Based on the hourly climate data of each zone for its respective design cooling day, performance of each system configuration is estimated using three performance parameters: cooling capacity, COP, and cooling energy delivered. The results revealed that the continental/micro-thermal climate of Vienna, temperate/mesothermal climate of Sao Paulo, and dry-summer subtropical climate of Adelaide favor the use of ventilated-dunkle cycle configuration with average COP of 0.405, 0.89 and 1.01 respectively. While ventilation cycle based DEC configuration suits arid and semiarid climate of Karachi and another category of temperate/mesothermal climate of Shanghai with average COP of

  12. Communicating the Urgency and Challenge of Global Climate Change: Lessons Learned and New Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilling, L.; Moser, S. C.

    2004-12-01

    Climate change can sometimes be characterized as a "creeping environmental problem"--it is complex and long-term, involves long system lags, lacks the immediacy of everyday experience and thus is hard to perceive, and feels overwhelming to most individuals. Climate change thus does not typically attain the status of an urgent concern, taking priority over other matters for individuals, organizations or in the policy arena. We review the major reasons behind this lack of urgency, and document the observed consequences of previous communication strategies, including lack of public understanding, indifference, confusion, fear and uncertainty. We find that certain emotional motivators such as fear and guilt, while oft-employed, do not actually result in improved recognition of the urgency of the issue, nor do they typically result in action. Rather, positive and engaging approaches may be more likely to achieve this goal. We propose seven strategies to improve the communication of climate change and its urgency: 1) Abide by basic communication rules and heed the warnings of communication experts; 2) Address the emotional and the temporal components of "urgency"; 3) Increase the persuasiveness of the message; 4) Use trusted messengers-broaden the circle; 5) Use opportunities well; 6) Tap into individual and cultural strengths and values; and 7) Unite and Conquer. The multi-faceted nature of the proposed strategies reflects the unique challenges of the climate change issue as well as the need to engage all levels and sectors of societies in the solution, from individuals, to businesses, to governments. These strategies and results emerged from a multi-disciplinary, academic/practitioner workshop on the topic held at NCAR in summer 2004.

  13. On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, T.

    2015-12-01

    Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

  14. Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, K. [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, PA (United States); Hall, M. [Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (United States); Kim, Seung-Rae [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Bradford, D.F. [Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Oppenheimer, M. [Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ, 08544 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run.

  15. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

  16. Rainwater catchment system design using simulated future climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Corey D.; Bailey, Ryan T.; Arabi, Mazdak

    2015-10-01

    Rainwater harvesting techniques are used worldwide to augment potable water supply, provide water for small-scale irrigation practices, increase rainwater-use efficiency for sustained crop growth in arid and semi-arid regions, decrease urban stormwater flow volumes, and in general to relieve dependency on urban water resources cycles. A number of methods have been established in recent years to estimate reliability of rainwater catchment systems (RWCS) and thereby properly size the components (roof catchment area, storage tank size) of the system for a given climatic region. These methods typically use historical or stochastically-generated rainfall patterns to quantify system performance and optimally size the system, with the latter accounting for possible rainfall scenarios based on statistical relationships of historical rainfall patterns. To design RWCS systems that can sustainably meet water demand under future climate conditions, this paper introduces a method that employs climatic data from general circulation models (GCMs) to develop a suite of catchment area vs. storage size design curves that capture uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Monthly rainfall data for the 2010-2050 time period is statistically downscaled to daily values using a Markov chain algorithm, with results used only from GCMs that yield rainfall patterns that are statistically consistent with historical rainfall patterns. The process is demonstrated through application to two climatic regions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific, wherein the majority of the population relies on rainwater harvesting for potable water supply. Through the use of design curves, communities can provide household RWCS that achieve a certain degree of storage reliability. The method described herein can be applied generally to any geographic region. It can be used to first, assess the future performance of existing household systems; and second, to design or modify systems

  17. Teaching vs. Preaching: Complex Climate Shown Simply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, M.; Besser, N.

    2013-12-01

    Stepping outside of traditional educational venues to reach people in ways they can relate to is critical in engaging the public in topics that are complex and subtle, particularly those that have become polarized and misunderstood. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently designed a visitor center for its new supercomputing facility that incorporates a variety of elements intended to draw visitors in, pique their curiosity, and invite them to explore the world of climate science from a fresh perspective. We made use of video storytelling, highlighting the people at the heart of the research, to present information in a conversational tone while captivating visitors with stunning images and music. We also designed interactive games to illustrate concepts like parallel processing, and how those, in turn, apply to understanding climate. And in addition to more traditional kinesthetic displays, we are exploring ways to use social media as a means of interacting with our audiences. One of the newer modes of communication we've adopted has been cartoon storytelling. Two dimensional cartoon animation has strong cultural connotations of levity and fun. For this reason it has proven to be a particularly useful tool in communicating climate science as it disarms the viewer from the apprehension of trying to understand a great deal of scientific jargon. By crafting key concepts into scripts and using appropriate metaphors with a dash of humor we have been able to reach a far broader audience without sacrificing the science or the message.

  18. Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013

  19. Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

  20. Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    2018-03-01

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

  1. A Standardized Evaluation System for Decadal Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Cubasch, U.

    2012-12-01

    The evaluation of decadal prediction systems is a scientific challenge as well as a technical challenge in the climate research. The major project MiKlip (www.fona-miklip.de) for medium-term climate prediction funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF) has the aim to create a model system that can provide reliable decadal forecasts on climate and weather. The model system to be developed will be novel in several aspects, with great challenges for the methodology development. This concerns especially the determination of the initial conditions, the inclusion into the model of processes relevant to decadal predictions, the increase of the spatial resolution through regionalisation, the improvement or adjustment of statistical post-processing, and finally the synthesis and validation of the entire model system. Therefore, a standardized evaluation system will be part of the MiKlip system to validate it - developed by the project 'Integrated data and evaluation system for decadal scale prediction' (INTEGRATION). The presentation gives an overview of the different linkages of such a project, shows the different development stages and gives an outlook for users and possible end users in climate service. The technical interface combines all projects inside of MiKlip and invites them to participate in a common evaluation system. The system design and the validation strategy from a standalone tool in the beginning to a user friendly web based system using GRID technologies to an integrated part of the operational MiKlip system for industry and society will give the opportunity to enhance the MiKlip strategy. First results of different possibilities of such a system will be shown to present the scientific background through Taylor diagrams, ensemble skill scores and e.g. climatological means to show the usability and possibilities of MiKlip and the INTEGRATION project.

  2. Managing climate change risks in rangeland systems [Chapter 15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Nadine A. Marshall

    2017-01-01

    The management of rangelands has long involved adapting to climate variability to ensure that economic enterprises remain viable and ecosystems sustainable; climate change brings the potential for change that surpasses the experience of humans within rangeland systems. Adaptation will require an intentionality to address the effects of climate change. Knowledge of...

  3. Trends of Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Implications on Water Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qassem Y. Tarawneh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is an important factor for sustainable water resource management in the arid and semi-arid countries. In this study, future trends of temperature and rainfall were assessed for several regions in Saudi Arabia. The linear and Mann–Kendall analyses showed an increase of temperature in all regions and decrease of rainfall in many regions. Following trend analysis, the outputs of the NCAR Community Climate System Model were obtained for three emission scenarios (high: representative concentration pathways RCP8.5; high medium: RCP6; and low: RCP2.6 for the assessment periods of 2025–2044, 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 respectively, and compared with the average values from the reference period (1986–2005. In all emission scenarios, temperature showed an increase from 1986 to 2005 in all regions. For RCP8.5, increase of temperature are in the ranges of 0.8–1.6 °C, 0.9–2.7 °C and 0.7–4.1 °C during 2025–2044, 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 respectively. However, rainfall showed variable patterns with respect to emission scenarios and assessment periods. In most regions, the RCP6 showed decrease in rainfall from the reference period while the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 showed variable patterns. The increase of temperature and variable pattern of rainfall may increase uncertainty in developing sustainable water resource management strategies.

  4. An Agent-based Extensible Climate Control System for Sustainable Greenhouse Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jan Corfixen; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard; Klein, Mark

    2011-01-01

    The slow adoption pace of new control strategies for sustainable greenhouse climate control by industrial growers is mainly due to the complexity of identifying and resolving potentially conflicting climate control requirements. In this paper, we present a multi-agent-based climate control system....... Negotiation is done using a novel multi-issue negotiation protocol that uses a generic algorithm to find an optimized solution within the search space. The Multi-Agent control system has been empirically evaluated in an ornamental floriculture research facility in Denmark. The evaluation showed...... that it is realistic to implement the climate control requirements as individual agents, thereby opening greenhouse climate control systems for integration of independently produced control strategies....

  5. A Web-Based Geovisual Analytical System for Climate Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenlong Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate studies involve petabytes of spatiotemporal datasets that are produced and archived at distributed computing resources. Scientists need an intuitive and convenient tool to explore the distributed spatiotemporal data. Geovisual analytical tools have the potential to provide such an intuitive and convenient method for scientists to access climate data, discover the relationships between various climate parameters, and communicate the results across different research communities. However, implementing a geovisual analytical tool for complex climate data in a distributed environment poses several challenges. This paper reports our research and development of a web-based geovisual analytical system to support the analysis of climate data generated by climate model. Using the ModelE developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS as an example, we demonstrate that the system is able to (1 manage large volume datasets over the Internet; (2 visualize 2D/3D/4D spatiotemporal data; (3 broker various spatiotemporal statistical analyses for climate research; and (4 support interactive data analysis and knowledge discovery. This research also provides an example for managing, disseminating, and analyzing Big Data in the 21st century.

  6. Application of web-GIS approach for climate change study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Bogomolov, Vasily; Martynova, Yuliya; Shulgina, Tamara

    2013-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used in numerous applications including modeling, interpretation and forecast of climatic and ecosystem changes for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset at present studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support. A dedicated web-GIS information-computational system for analysis of georeferenced climatological and meteorological data has been created. It is based on OGC standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. The main advantage of the system lies in a possibility to perform mathematical and statistical data analysis, graphical visualization of results with GIS-functionality, and to prepare binary output files with just only a modern graphical web-browser installed on a common desktop computer connected to Internet. Several geophysical datasets represented by two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis, MRI/JMA APHRODITE's Water Resources Project Reanalysis, DWD Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's data, GMAO Modern Era-Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, meteorological observational data for the territory of the former USSR for the 20th century, results of modeling by global and regional climatological models, and others are available for processing by the system. And this list is extending. Also a functionality to run WRF and "Planet simulator" models was implemented in the system. Due to many preset parameters and limited time and spatial ranges set in the system these models have low computational power requirements and could be used in educational workflow for better

  7. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  8. 7th International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change(ISCS) through the Eyes of a Trainee

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Karen K.Y.Shum

    2010-01-01

    @@ At the invitation of Dr.Dahe Qin,the president of ISCS and the Co-Chair of IPCC WGI,the Hong Kong Observatory has been obliged to participate and benefit from the International Seminar in Beijing,China on 19-30 July 2010.Seminar topics included atmospheric chemistry and climate effects of aerosol biogeochemical cycles,cryosphere and its role in the climate system and climate change,climate models and its application in climate change research,climate change adaptation and mitigation.Data is a common ground for these multi-disciplinary studies around the globe.

  9. Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in

  10. Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Henson

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

  11. COR1 Engineering Test Unit Measurements at the NCAR/HAO Vacuum Tunnel Facility, October-November 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, William

    2002-01-01

    The Engineering Test Unit (ETU) of COR1 was made in two configurations. The first configuration, ETU-1, was for vibration testing, while the second, ETU-2, was for optical testing. This is a report on the optical testing performed on ETU-2 at the NCAR/HAO Vacuum Tunnel Facility during the months of October and November, 2002. This was the same facility used to test the two previous breadboard models. In both configurations, the first two tube sections were complete, with all optical elements aligned. The vibration model ETU-1 had the remaining tube sections attached, with mass models for the remaining optics, for the various mechanisms, and for the focal plane assembly. It was then converted into the optical model ETU-2 by removing tube sections 3 to 5, and mounting the remaining optics on commercial mounts. (The bandpass filter was also installed into tube 2, which had been replaced in ETU-1 by a mass model, so that pre- and post-vibration optical measurements could be made.) Doublet 2 was installed in a Newport LP-2 carrier, and aligned to the other optics in the first two tube sections. The LP-2 adjustment screws were then uralened so that the alignment could be maintained during shipping. Because neither the flight polarizer nor Hollow Core Motor were available, they were simulated by a commercial polarizer and rotational mount, both from Oriel corporation. The Oriel rotational stage was not designed for vacuum use, but it was determined after consultation with the company, and lab testing, that the stage could be used in the moderate vacuum conditions at the NCAR/HAO facility. The shutter and focal plane assembly were simulated with the same camera used for the previous two breadboard tests. The focal plane mask was simulated with a plane of BK7 glass with a mask glued on, using the same procedure as for the Lyot spot on Doublet 1, and mounted in an adjustable LP-2 carrier. Two masks were made, one made to the precise specifications of the optical design, the

  12. DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-04-01

    At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate

  13. Orbital Noise in the Earth System and Climate Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Han-Shou; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Frequency noise in the variations of the Earth's obliquity (tilt) can modulate the insolation signal for climate change. Including this frequency noise effect on the incoming solar radiation, we have applied an energy balance climate model to calculate the climate fluctuations for the past one million years. Model simulation results are in good agreement with the geologically observed paleoclimate data. We conclude that orbital noise in the Earth system may be the major cause of the climate fluctuation cycles.

  14. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  15. Teaching climate change: A 16-year record of introducing undergraduates to the fundamentals of the climate system and its complexities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winckler, G.; Pfirman, S. L.; Hays, J. D.; Schlosser, P.; Ting, M.

    2011-12-01

    Responding to climate change challenges in the near and far future, will require a wide range of knowledge, skills and a sense of the complexities involved. Since 1995, Columbia University and Barnard College have offered an undergraduate class that strives to provide students with some of these skills. The 'Climate System' course is a component of the three-part 'Earth Environmental Systems' series and provides the fundamentals needed for understanding the Earth's climate system and its variability. Being designed both for science majors and non-science majors, the emphasis of the course is on basic physical explanations, rather than mathematical derivations of the laws that govern the climate system. The course includes lectures, labs and discussion. Laboratory exercises primarily explore the climate system using global datasets, augmented by hands-on activities. Course materials are available for public use at http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/camel_modules/ and http://ncseonline.org/climate/cms.cfm?id=3783. In this presentation we discuss the experiences, challenges and future demands of conveying the science of the Earth's Climate System and the risks facing the planet to a wide spectrum of undergraduate students, many of them without a background in the sciences. Using evaluation data we reflect how the course, the students, and the faculty have evolved over the past 16 years as the earth warmed, pressures for adaptation planning and mitigation measures increased, and public discourse became increasingly polarized.

  16. Impact of biogenic emissions on feedbacks in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, Olaf

    2017-04-01

    Impact of biogenic emissions on feedbacks in the climate system Bio-geophysical feedback between marine or continental ecosystems and the atmosphere potentially can alter climate change. A prominent feedback loop which is under discussion since 1983 bases on the emission of biologically produced gases - molecular oxygen, sulphur containing compounds and possibly isoprene, supersaturated in oceanic waters - into the marine troposphere. These by-products of phytoplankton metabolism lead to aerosol production and procure sustained influence on climate via modulation of cloud optical properties. In this contribution some findings related to the above mentioned climate processes are presented with special emphasis on marine ecosystems. A comparison of marine and continental ecosystems is made and different processes with major impact on feedbacks in the climate system are discussed.

  17. Simulated climate adaptation in storm-water systems: Evaluating the efficiency of within-system flexibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam D. McCurdy

    Full Text Available Changes in regional temperature and precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change may adversely affect the performance of long-lived infrastructure. Adaptation may be necessary to ensure that infrastructure offers consistent service and remains cost effective. But long service times and deep uncertainty associated with future climate projections make adaptation decisions especially challenging for managers. Incorporating flexibility into systems can increase their effectiveness across different climate futures but can also add significant costs. In this paper we review existing work on flexibility in climate change adaptation of infrastructure, such as robust decision-making and dynamic adaptive pathways, apply a basic typology of flexibility, and test alternative strategies for flexibility in distributed infrastructure systems comprised of multiple emplacements of a common, long-lived element: roadway culverts. Rather than treating a system of dispersed infrastructure elements as monolithic, we simulate “options flexibility” in which inherent differences in individual elements is incorporated into adaptation decisions. We use a virtual testbed of highway drainage crossing structures to examine the performance under different climate scenarios of policies that allow for multiple adaptation strategies with varying timing based on individual emplacement characteristics. Results indicate that a strategy with options flexibility informed by crossing characteristics offers a more efficient method of adaptation than do monolithic policies. In some cases this results in more cost-effective adaptation for agencies building long-lived, climate-sensitive infrastructure, even where detailed system data and analytical capacity is limited. Keywords: Climate adaptation, Stormwater management, Adaptation pathways

  18. Modernization of the graphics post-processors of the Hamburg German Climate Computer Center Carbon Cycle Codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, E.J.; McNeilly, G.S.

    1994-03-01

    The existing National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) code in the Hamburg Oceanic Carbon Cycle Circulation Model and the Hamburg Large-Scale Geostrophic Ocean General Circulation Model was modernized and reduced in size while still producing an equivalent end result. A reduction in the size of the existing code from more than 50,000 lines to approximately 7,500 lines in the new code has made the new code much easier to maintain. The existing code in Hamburg model uses legacy NCAR (including even emulated CALCOMP subrountines) graphics to display graphical output. The new code uses only current (version 3.1) NCAR subrountines.

  19. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

  20. Avaliação de mudanças na frequência de sistemas frontais sobre o sul da América do Sul em projeções do clima futuro Changes in frequency of frontal systems over southern of South America in projections of future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelen Martins Andrade

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available A frequência de sistemas frontais sobre o sul da América do Sul identificada na reanálise do NCEP/NCAR é comparada com as simulações dos modelos GFDL e Hadley e projetadas no clima futuro. As análises para identificar casos de sistemas frontais foram feitas em três regiões que cobrem áreas do Brasil, Uruguai, Paraguai e Argentina. Esta análise foi realizada com o fim de investigar as características de eventos extremos no clima presente e em projeções do clima futuro. Para o clima presente observou-se que os modelos analisados simularam bem as características sinóticas dos sistemas frontais. No entanto, quando se compara a frequência de ocorrência das frentes entre a reanálise e as simulações, observa-se que os modelos GFDL e Hadley superestimam seu número e apenas o GFDL consegue reproduzir a variabilidade mensal. O modelo Hadley superestima ainda mais em relação ao NCEP e GFDL no clima presente. A tendência positiva no número de frentes observada na área 3 (65ºW-60ºW, 33ºS-38ºS nos resultados da reanálise não é simulada pelos modelos. Quando os casos mais intensos são selecionados, o modelo GFDL é o que superestima mais o número de sistemas frontais. Os dois modelos indicam aumento na frequência de sistemas frontais no futuro nas três áreas, porém em menor proporção na área 3.The frequency of frontal systems reaching the south of South America is compared with reanalysis NCEP/NCAR and results of GFDL and Hadley models for the future climate. Three regions were analyzed to identify the frontal systems, in areas of Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. The following criteria were used: increase of sea surface pressure, reduction of the temperature and change of the meridional wind at 850hPa, in two consecutive days. Selected cases with temperature drop above five degrees, considered the most intense, were also analyzed. For the present climate it was observed that the models simulated well the

  1. Weather and Climate Manipulation as an Optimal Control for Adaptive Dynamical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Soldatenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The weather and climate manipulation is examined as an optimal control problem for the earth climate system, which is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system. Weather and climate manipulations are actually amorphous operations. Since their objectives are usually formulated vaguely, the expected results are fairly unpredictable and uncertain. However, weather and climate modification is a purposeful process and, therefore, we can formulate operations to manipulate weather and climate as the optimization problem within the framework of the optimal control theory. The complexity of the earth’s climate system is discussed and illustrated using the simplified low-order coupled chaotic dynamical system. The necessary conditions of optimality are derived for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This confirms that even a relatively simplified control problem for the atmospheric dynamics requires significant efforts to obtain the solution.

  2. WASCAL - West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use Regional Climate Simulations and Land-Atmosphere Simulations for West Africa at DKRZ and elsewhere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Ilse; Arnault, Joel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald

    2014-05-01

    accompanied by the WASCAL Graduate Research Program on the West African Climate System. The GRP-WACS provides ten scholarships per year for West African PhD students with a duration of three years. Present and future WASCAL PhD students will constitute one important user group of the Linux cluster that will be installed at the Competence Center in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Regional Land-Atmosphere Simulations A key research activity of the WASCAL Core Research Program is the analysis of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere to investigate how land surface changes affect hydro-meteorological surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration. Since current land surface models of global and regional climate models neglect dominant lateral hydrological processes such as surface runoff, a novel land surface model is used, the NCAR Distributed Hydrological Modeling System (NDHMS). This model can be coupled to WRF (WRF-Hydro) to perform two-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological simulations for the watershed of interest. Hardware and network prerequisites include a HPC cluster, network switches, internal storage media, Internet connectivity of sufficient bandwidth. Competences needed are HPC, storage, and visualization systems optimized for climate research, parallelization and optimization of climate models and workflows, efficient management of highest data volumes.

  3. Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Karin Barrueto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global climate models foresee changes in temperature and precipitation regimes that shift regional climate zones and influence the viability of agricultural market systems. Understanding the influence of climate change on the different sub-sectors and functions of a market system is crucial to increasing the systems’ climate resilience and to ensuring the long-term viability of the sectors. Our research applies a new approach to climate change analysis to better understand the influence of climate change on each step of an agricultural market system—on its core (processing units, storage facilities and sales and support functions (sapling supply, research, insurance and agricultural policy. We use spatial climate analyses to investigate current and projected changes in climate for different regions in Nepal. We then analyse the risks and vulnerabilities of the sub-sectors banana, charcoal, coffee, macadamia, orange, vegetables and walnut. Our results show that temperatures and precipitation levels will change differently depending on the climatic regions, and that climate change elicits different responses from the market functions both between and within each of the different sub-sectors. We conclude that climate-related interventions in market systems must account for each different market function’s specific response and exposure to climate change, in order to select adaptation measures that ensure long-term climate resilience.

  4. Sensitivity of Distributions of Climate System Properties to Surface Temperature Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

    2011-12-01

    Predictions of climate change from models depend strongly on the representation of climate system properties emerging from the processes and feedbacks in the models. The quality of any model prediction can be evaluated by determining how well its output reproduces the observed climate system. With this evaluation, the reliability of climate projections derived from the model and provided for policy makers is assessed and quantified. In this study, surface temperature, upper-air temperature, and ocean heat content data are used to constrain the distributions of the parameters that define three climate system properties in the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake into the deep ocean, and net anthropogenic aerosol forcing. In particular, we explore the sensitivity of the distributions to the surface temperature dataset used to estimate the likelihood of model output given the observed climate records. In total, five different reconstructions of past surface temperatures are used and the resulting parameter distribution functions differ from each other. Differences in estimates of climate sensitivity mode and mean are as great as 1 K between the datasets, with an overall range of 1.2 to 5.3 K using the 5-95 confidence intervals. Ocean effective diffusivity is poorly constrained regardless of which dataset is used. All distributions show broad distributions and only three show signs of a distribution mode. When a mode is present, they tend to be for low diffusivity values. Distributions for the net aerosol forcing show similar shapes and cluster into two groups that are shifted by approximately 0.1 watts per square meter. However, the overall spread of forcing values from the 5-95 confidence interval, -0.19 to -0.83 watts per square meter, is small compared to other uncertainties in climate forcings. Transient climate response estimates derived from these distributions range between 0.87 and 2.41 K. Similar to the

  5. Climate Services Information System Activities in Support of The Global Framework for Climate Services Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Klein-Tank, A.; Kolli, R. K.; Hechler, P.; Dilley, M.; Ceron, J. P.; Goodess, C.

    2017-12-01

    The WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl) supports the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) with a particular focus on the Climate Services Information System (CSIS), which is the core operational component of GFCS at the global, regional, and national level. CSIS is designed for producing, packaging and operationally delivering authoritative climate information data and products through appropriate operational systems, practices, data exchange, technical standards, authentication, communication, and product delivery. Its functions include climate analysis and monitoring, assessment and attribution, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal), and projection (centennial scale) as well as tailoring the associated products tUEAo suit user requirements. A central, enabling piece of implementation of CSIS is a Climate Services Toolkit (CST). In its development phase, CST exists as a prototype (www.wmo.int/cst) as a compilation of tools for generating tailored data and products for decision-making, with a special focus on national requirements in developing countries. WMO provides a server to house the CST prototype as well as support operations and maintenance. WMO members provide technical expertise and other in-kind support, including leadership of the CSIS development team. Several recent WMO events have helped with the deployment of CST within the eight countries that have been recognized by GFCS as illustrative for developing their climate services at national levels. Currently these countries are developing climate services projects focusing service development and delivery for selected economic sectors, such as for health, agriculture, energy, water resources, and hydrometeorological disaster risk reduction. These countries are working together with their respective WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), which provide technical assistance with implementation of climate services projects at the country level and facilitate development of

  6. Integrated assessment of water-power grid systems under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Betrie, G.

    2017-12-01

    Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. In this presentation, we are focusing on recent improvement in model development of thermoelectric power plant water use simulator, power grid operation and cost optimization model, and model integration that facilitate interaction among water and electricity generation under extreme climate events. A process based thermoelectric power water use simulator includes heat-balance, climate, and cooling system modules that account for power plant characteristics, fuel types, and cooling technology. The model is validated with more than 800 power plants of fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems. The power grid operation and cost optimization model was implemented for a selected regional in the Midwest. The case study will be demonstrated to evaluate the sensitivity and resilience of thermoelectricity generation and power grid under various climate and hydrologic extremes and potential economic consequences.

  7. Systems in peril: Climate change, agriculture and biodiversity in Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cocklin, Chris; Dibden, Jacqui

    2009-01-01

    This paper reflects on the interplay amongst three closely linked systems - climate, agriculture and biodiversity - in the Australian context. The advance of a European style of agriculture has imperilled Australian biodiversity. The loss and degradation of biodiversity has, in turn, had negative consequences for agriculture. Climate change is imposing new pressures on both agriculture and biodiversity. From a policy and management perspective, though, it is possible to envisage mitigation and adaptation responses that would alleviate pressures on all three systems (climate, agriculture, biodiversity). In this way, the paper seeks to make explicit the important connections between science and policy. The paper outlines the distinctive features of both biodiversity and agriculture in the Australian context. The discussion then addresses the impacts of agriculture on biodiversity, followed by an overview of how climate change is impacting on both of these systems. The final section of the paper offers some commentary on current policy and management strategies that are targeted at mitigating the loss of biodiversity and which may also have benefits in terms of climate change.

  8. Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Kelly E.

    Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated

  9. Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menon, Surabi; Denman, Kenneth L.; Brasseur , Guy; Chidthaisong, Amnat; Ciais, Philippe; Cox, Peter M.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Hauglustaine, Didier; Heinze, Christoph; Holland, Elisabeth; Jacob , Daniel; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ramachandran, Srikanthan; Leite da Silva Dias, Pedro; Wofsy, Steven C.; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2007-10-01

    The Earth's climate is determined by a number of complex connected physical, chemical and biological processes occurring in the atmosphere, land and ocean. The radiative properties of the atmosphere, a major controlling factor of the Earth's climate, are strongly affected by the biophysical state of the Earth's surface and by the atmospheric abundance of a variety of trace constituents. These constituents include long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), as well as other radiatively active constituents such as ozone and different types of aerosol particles. The composition of the atmosphere is determined by processes such as natural and anthropogenic emissions of gases and aerosols, transport at a variety of scales, chemical and microphysical transformations, wet scavenging and surface uptake by the land and terrestrial ecosystems, and by the ocean and its ecosystems. These processes and, more generally the rates of biogeochemical cycling, are affected by climate change, and involve interactions between and within the different components of the Earth system. These interactions are generally nonlinear and may produce negative or positive feedbacks to the climate system. An important aspect of climate research is to identify potential feedbacks and assess if such feedbacks could produce large and undesired responses to perturbations resulting from human activities. Studies of past climate evolution on different time scales can elucidate mechanisms that could trigger nonlinear responses to external forcing. The purpose of this chapter is to identify the major biogeochemical feedbacks of significance to the climate system, and to assess current knowledge of their magnitudes and trends. Specifically, this chapter will examine the relationships between the physical climate system and the land surface, the carbon cycle, chemically reactive atmospheric gases and aerosol

  10. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  11. Effect of Climate Change on the Food Supply System: Implications ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change has become an issue of great concern in recent years due to its effect on every aspect of life. The ecosystem, agriculture, industry, households and human well-being are all intertwined with climate change issues. The food supply system worldwide has been affected and is also contributing to climate ...

  12. The Grand Challenges of WCRP and the Climate Observing System of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasseur, G. P.

    2017-12-01

    The successful implementation the Paris agreement on climate change (COP21) calls for a well-designed global monitoring system of essential climate variables, climate processes and Earth system budgets. The Grand Challenges implemented by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) provide an opportunity to investigate issues of high societal relevance, directly related to sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and fresh water availability. These challenges would directly benefit from a well-designed suite of systematic climate observations. Quantification of the evolution of the global energy, water and carbon budgets as well as the development and the production of near-term and regional climate predictions require that a comprehensive, focused, multi-platform observing system (satellites, ground-based and in situ observations) be established in an international context. This system must be accompanied by the development of climate services that should translate and disseminate scientific outcomes as actionable information for users and stakeholders.

  13. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  14. Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scallion, M.

    2017-12-01

    Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to

  15. Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

  16. Bioaerosols in the Earth system: Climate, health, and ecosystem interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fröhlich-Nowoisky, Janine; Kampf, Christopher J.; Weber, Bettina; Huffman, J. Alex; Pöhlker, Christopher; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Lang-Yona, Naama; Burrows, Susannah M.; Gunthe, Sachin S.; Elbert, Wolfgang; Su, Hang; Hoor, Peter; Thines, Eckhard; Hoffmann, Thorsten; Després, Viviane R.; Pöschl, Ulrich

    2016-12-01

    Aerosols of biological origin play a vital role in the Earth system, particularly in the in-teractions between atmosphere, biosphere, climate, and public health. Airborne bacteria, fungal spores, pollen, and other bioparticles are essential for the reproduction and spread of organisms across various ecosystems, and they can cause or enhance human, animal, and plant diseases. Moreover, they can serve as nuclei for cloud droplets, ice crystals, and precipitation, thus influencing the hydrological cycle and climate. The actual formation, abundance, composition, and effects of biological aerosols and the atmospheric microbi-ome are, however, not yet well characterized and constitute a large gap in the scientific understanding of the interaction and co-evolution of life and climate in the Earth system. This review presents an overview of the state of bioaerosol research and highlights recent advances in terms of bioaerosol identification, characterization, transport, and transfor-mation processes, as well as their interactions with climate, health, and ecosystems, focus-ing on the role bioaerosols play in the Earth system.

  17. Potential energy consumption reduction of automotive climate control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, Filip; Uddheim, Åsa; Dalenbäck, Jan-Olof

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Twenty-on energy saving measures for vehicle interior climate were evaluated. • Few single energy saving measures could reduce the energy use significantly. • The operation of the system in intermediate conditions determines the energy use. • Required heating/cooling of passenger compartment had small effect on energy use. - Abstract: In recent years fuel consumption of passenger vehicles has received increased attention by customers, the automotive industry, regulatory agencies and academia. One area which affect the fuel consumption is climate control systems. Twenty-one energy saving measures were evaluated regarding the total energy use for vehicle interior climate using simulation. Evaluated properties were heat flow into the passenger compartment, electrical and mechanical work. The simulation model included sub models of the passenger compartment, air-handling unit, Air Conditioning (AC) system, engine and engine cooling system. A real-world representative test cycle, which included tests in cold, intermediate and warm conditions, was used for evaluation. In general, few single energy saving measures could reduce the energy use significantly. The measures with most potential were increased blower efficiency with a reduction of 46% of the electrical work and increased AC-system disengage temperature with a reduction of 27% of the mechanical work. These results show that the operation of the climate control system had a large effect on the energy use, especially compared to the required heating and cooling of the passenger compartment. As a result energy saving measures need to address how heating and cooling is generated before reducing the heat flow into the passenger compartment.

  18. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  19. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  20. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  1. Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Kumar Tripathi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

  2. Organizational Climate, Services, and Outcomes in Child Welfare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glisson, Charles; Green, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Objective: This study examines the association of organizational climate, casework services, and youth outcomes in child welfare systems. Building on preliminary findings linking organizational climate to youth outcomes over a 3-year follow-up period, the current study extends the follow-up period to 7 years and tests main, moderating and…

  3. Estudo comparativo de simulações paleoclimáticas na região do Atlântico Sul Comparison of paleoclimatics simulation in the South Atlantic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Oliveira

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Neste estudo são comparadas diferentes simulações de modelos paleoclimáticos para duas épocas distintas, o Último Máximo Glacial (UMG e o Presente. Esta comparação visa elucidar as principais diferenças nos processos físicos e dinâmicos do sistema oceano-atmosfera na região do oceano Atlântico Sul entre estes dois períodos. Foram analisadas as variações na climatologia anual entre estas épocas para os seguintes parâmetros: temperatura do ar (TA, precipitação (PPT e pressão ao nível do mar (PNM. As simulações numéricas analisadas são do projeto PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project e do modelo numérico acoplado NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM (Comunnity Climate System Model versão 1.4 nos dois períodos de interesse. Os resultados mostram uma intensificação do presente em relação ao UMG em todas as variáveis analisadas. As diferentes simulações atmosféricas do PMIP apresentaram padrões consistentes com os apresentados no modelo NCAR CCSM, sendo observados baixos valores de EQM (Erro Quadrático Médio para grande parte da região de estudo.The present work presents a comparison between the results of different paleoclimate simulations models for two periods, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and the Present day. This comparison intents to elucidate the overall differences of the physical and dynamical processes from ocean-atmosphere system for these two climates. We analyzed the variations in the annual climatology between the LGM and Present for the following variables: air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure. We used the results of the PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project and the numerical coupled model developed at NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM (Comunnity Climate System Model for the two periods of interest. The results show an intensification of the present in relation to the LGM in all variables. The different atmospheric

  4. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the region? The model systems used for this study are the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model; the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and PennState/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological models; the SLEUTH land use model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE); the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) models for simulating regional air quality; and exposure-risk coefficients for assessing population health impacts based on exposure to extreme heat, fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone. Two different IPCC global emission scenarios and two different regional land use growth scenarios are considered in the simulations, spanning a range of possible futures. In addition to base simulations for selected time periods in the decade 1990 - 2000, the integrated model is used to simulate future scenarios in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Predictions from both the meteorological models and the air quality models are compared against available observations for the simulations in the 1990s to establish baseline model performance. A series of sensitivity tests will address whether changes in meteorology due to global climate change, changes in regional land use, or changes in emissions have the largest impact on predicted ozone and particulate matter concentrations.

  5. Designing domestic rainwater harvesting systems under different climatic regimes in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campisano, A; Gnecco, I; Modica, C; Palla, A

    2013-01-01

    Nowadays domestic rainwater harvesting practices are recognized as effective tools to improve the sustainability of drainage systems within the urban environment, by contributing to limiting the demand for potable water and, at the same time, by mitigating the generation of storm water runoff at the source. The final objective of this paper is to define regression curves to size domestic rainwater harvesting (DRWH) systems in the main Italian climatic regions. For this purpose, the Köppen-Geiger climatic classification is used and, furthermore, suitable precipitation sites are selected for each climatic region. A behavioural model is implemented to assess inflow, outflow and change in storage volume of a rainwater harvesting system according to daily mass balance simulations based on historical rainfall observations. The performance of the DRWH system under various climate and operational conditions is examined as a function of two non-dimensional parameters, namely the demand fraction (d) and the modified storage fraction (sm). This last parameter allowed the evaluation of the effects of the rainfall intra-annual variability on the system performance.

  6. Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

    2014-12-01

    China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national

  7. Vulnerability of social-ecological system to climate change in Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakinuma, K.; Yanagawa, A.; Sasaki, T.; Kanae, S.

    2017-12-01

    Coping with future climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. IPCC (2014) suggested that vulnerability and exposure of social-ecological systems to extreme climatic events (hazard) determine the impact of climate changes. Although the schematic framework is widely accepted, there are high uncertainty of vulnerability of social and ecological systems and it makes difficult to examine it in empirical researches. Our objective is to assess the climate change impact on the social-ecological system in Mongolia. We review researches about trends of climate (Hazard), vegetation, pastoral mobility (Vulnerability) and livestock distribution (Exposure) across Mongolia Climate trends are critical for last several decades and thus hazard may be increasing in Mongolia. Temperature is increasing with high confidence in all regions. Precipitation are slightly decreasing with medium confidence across the country, especially in northern and central regions. Exposure would also be increasing especially in northern, central and western regions, because livestock population are concentrating these regions after 1990. Generally, less productive ecosystems (e.g. few plant productivity and less species richness) are vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as drought. In that sense, southern region may be more vulnerable to climate changes than other regions. However, if we focus on pastoral mobility forms for drought, we get contractive conclusions. Pastoralists in southern region keep mobility to variable and scarce vegetation while pastoralists in northern region less mobile because of stable and much vegetation. Exclusive managements in northern region is able to maximized the number of livestock only under stable precipitation regimes. But at the same time, it is difficult to escape from hazardous areas when it is drought. Thus, in term of rangeland management, northern region would be more vulnerable to increase of drought intensity. Although northern and

  8. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Status and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, R.

    2009-04-01

    NARCCAP is an international program that is generating projections of climate change for the U.S., Canada, and northern Mexico at decision-relevant regional scales. NARCCAP uses multiple limited-area regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The use of multiple regional and global models allows us to investigate the uncertainty in model responses to future emissions (here, the A2 SRES scenario). The project also includes global time-slice experiments at the same discretization (50 km) using the GFDL atmospheric model (AM2.1) and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3). Phase I of the experiment uses the regional models nested within reanalysis in order to establish uncertainty attributable to the RCMs themselves. Phase II of the project then nests the RCMs within results from the current and future runs of the AOGCMs to explore the cascade of uncertainty from the global to the regional models. Phase I has been completed and the results to be shown include findings that spectral nudging is beneficial in some regions but not in others. Phase II is nearing completion and some preliminary results will be shown.

  9. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.

    2004-08-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling tools for examining the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period (1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations and reanalysis data products. The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100) for two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). These differences are also of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The RCAO simulations for the 2071-2100 period indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during the winter season (December February), but the uncertainty of these prognoses remains high. (au)

  10. Climate change adaptability of cropping and farming systems for Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justes, Eric; Rossing, Walter; Vermue, Anthony

    systems to CC through a gradient of adaptation strategies. Methods: The adaptation strategies are evaluated at cropping and farming systems as well as regional levels for nine “Adaptation Pilots” along a North-South climate gradient in the EU. Three categories of strategies are evaluated: i) Resistance...... and foster learning in participatory co-design workshops. Results and expectations: The expected results of the Climate-CAFE on-going project will produce an overview of potential CC adaptation measures for selected sites across the EU, along with mutual learning experiences for improved understanding......Introduction: Prospective studies showed that the European agriculture will be impacted by climate change (CC) with different effects depending on the geographic region. The ERA-Net+ project Climate-CAFE (call of FACCE-JPI) aims to improve the “adaptive capacity” of arable and forage based farming...

  11. Methane feedbacks to the global climate system in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S.M.; de Jong, Anniek E.E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands,

  12. Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air—sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air—sea system is constructed during the period of 1948–2009. In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift, the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated. Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s, in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately. These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient. Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal values of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height, among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift. We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices. That is to say, abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air—sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices, but also might be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices. Furthermore, at the turning point of 1975, there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific, which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air—sea systems. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  13. Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009.In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift,the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated.Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s,in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately.These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient.Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal vaiues of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height,among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift.We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices.That is to say,abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices,but also night be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices.Furthermore,at the turning point of 1975,there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific,which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.

  14. AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

    2017-09-06

    This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability and predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.

  15. Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Cimatoribus

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be the more correct for describing the palaeoclimatic signal. In this work, we assess the bimodality of the system, reconstructing the topology of the multi-dimensional attractor over which the climate system evolves. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We show that Dansgaard–Oeschger events have weak early warning signals if the ensemble of events is considered. We find that the statistics are consistent with the switches between two different climate equilibrium states in response to a changing external forcing (e.g. solar, ice sheets, either forcing directly the transition or pacing it through stochastic resonance. These findings are most consistent with a model that associates Dansgaard–Oeschger with changing boundary conditions, and with the presence of a bifurcation point.

  16. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2012-09-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

  17. [Medication error management climate and perception for system use according to construction of medication error prevention system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myoung Soo

    2012-08-01

    The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine current status of IT-based medication error prevention system construction and the relationships among system construction, medication error management climate and perception for system use. The participants were 124 patient safety chief managers working for 124 hospitals with over 300 beds in Korea. The characteristics of the participants, construction status and perception of systems (electric pharmacopoeia, electric drug dosage calculation system, computer-based patient safety reporting and bar-code system) and medication error management climate were measured in this study. The data were collected between June and August 2011. Descriptive statistics, partial Pearson correlation and MANCOVA were used for data analysis. Electric pharmacopoeia were constructed in 67.7% of participating hospitals, computer-based patient safety reporting systems were constructed in 50.8%, electric drug dosage calculation systems were in use in 32.3%. Bar-code systems showed up the lowest construction rate at 16.1% of Korean hospitals. Higher rates of construction of IT-based medication error prevention systems resulted in greater safety and a more positive error management climate prevailed. The supportive strategies for improving perception for use of IT-based systems would add to system construction, and positive error management climate would be more easily promoted.

  18. Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ming; D. Pollard

    2003-01-01

    A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China.

  19. Climate mitigation comparison of woody biomass systems with the inclusion of land-use in the reference fossil system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haus, S.; Gustavsson, L.; Sathre, R.

    2014-01-01

    While issues of land-use have been considered in many direct analyses of biomass systems, little attention has heretofore been paid to land-use in reference fossil systems. Here we address this limitation by comparing forest biomass systems to reference fossil systems with explicit consideration of land-use in both systems. We estimate and compare the time profiles of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) of woody biomass systems and reference fossil systems. A life cycle perspective is used that includes all significant elements of both systems, including GHG emissions along the full material and energy chains. We consider the growth dynamics of forests under different management regimes, as well as energy and material substitution effects of harvested biomass. We determine the annual net emissions of CO 2 , N 2 O and CH 4 for each system over a 240-year period, and then calculate time profiles of CRF as a proxy measurement of climate change impact. The results show greatest potential for climate change mitigation when intensive forest management is applied in the woody biomass system. This methodological framework provides a tool to help determine optimal strategies for managing forests so as to minimize climate change impacts. The inclusion of land-use in the reference system improves the accuracy of quantitative projections of climate benefits of biomass-based systems. - Highlights: • We analyze the dynamics of GHG emissions from woody biomass and fossil systems. • With a life cycle perspective, we account for forest land-use in both systems. • Replacing more carbon intensive fossil fuels gives greater climate benefit. • Increasing the intensity of forest management gives greater climate benefit. • Methodological choices in defining temporal system boundaries are important

  20. Next Generation Climate Change Experiments Needed to Advance Knowledge and for Assessment of CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katzenberger, John [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States); Arnott, James [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States); Wright, Alyson [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States)

    2014-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6,” on August 4-9, 2013 in Aspen, CO. Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Richard Moss (PNNL), and Karl Taylor (LLNL) served as co-chairs for the workshop which included the participation of 32 scientists representing most of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 160 participant days. In August 2013, AGCI gathered a high level meeting of representatives from major climate modeling centers around the world to assess achievements and lessons learned from the most recent generation of coordinated modeling experiments known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – 5 (CMIP5) as well as to scope out the science questions and coordination structure desired for the next anticipated phase of modeling experiments called CMIP6. The workshop allowed for reflection on the coordination of the CMIP5 process as well as intercomparison of model results, such as were assessed in the most recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1. For example, this slide from Masahiro Watanabe examines performance on a range of models capturing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

  1. The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Iversen

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html without (NorESM1-M and with (NorESM1-ME interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012, this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012. NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15–17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra

  2. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  3. A Study of the Climate Change during 21st Century over Peninsular Malaysia Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavvas, M. L.; Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    15 coarse-resolution (150 - 300 km) climate projections for the 21st century by 3 different coupled land-atmosphere-ocean GCMs (ECHAM5 of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology of Germany, CCSM3 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) of the United States, and MRI-CGCM2.3.2 of the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan) under 4 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2, A1FI) were dynamically downscaled at hourly intervals by a regional hydro-climate model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) that consisted of Regional Atmospheric Model MM5 that was coupled with WEHY watershed hydrology model over Peninsular Malaysia (PM), at the scale of the hillslopes of 13 selected watersheds (Batu Pahat, Johor, Muda, Kelang, Kelantan, Linggi, Muar, Pahang, Perak, Selangor, Dungun, Kemaman and Kuantan) and 12 selected intervening coastal regions in order to assess the impact of climate change on the climate conditions at the selected watersheds and coastal regions of PM. From the downscaled climate projections it can be concluded that the mean annual precipitation gradually increases toward the end of the 21st century over each of the 13 watersheds and the 12 coastal regions. The basin-average mean annual temperature increases in the range of 2.50C - 2.950C over PM during the 2010 -2100 period when compared to the 1970-2000 historical period. The ensemble average basin-average annual potential evapotranspiration increases gradually throughout the 21st century over all watersheds.

  4. Knowledge systems of societies for adaptation and mitigation of impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nautiyal, Sunil; Raju, K.V.; Rao, K.S.; Kaechele, Harald; Schaldach, Ruediger

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is broadly recognized as a key environmental issue affecting social and ecological systems worldwide. At the Cancun summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's 16th Conference, the parties jointly agreed that the vulnerable groups particularly in developing countries and whose livelihood is based on land use practices are the most common victims as in most cases their activities are shaped by the climate. Therefore, solving the climate dilemma through mitigation processes and scientific research is an ethical concern. Thus combining the knowledge systems of the societies and scientific evidences can greatly assist in the creation of coping mechanisms for sustainable development in a situation of changing climate. International Humboldt Kolleg focusing on ''knowledge systems of societies and Climate Change'' was organized at ISEC. This event was of unique importance, as the year 2011-12 was celebrated as the 60th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between India and Germany with the motto ''Germany and India - Infinite Opportunities.'' This volume is the outcome of the papers presented during the IHK 2011 at ISEC, India. It reports on the present knowledge systems in a third world country which has always practiced a live and let live philosophy. Furthermore it provides valuable information for understanding the complexity of socio-ecological systems in relation to the projected impacts of climate change.

  5. Climate proxy data as groundwater tracers in regional flow systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J. F.; Morrissey, S. K.; Stute, M.

    2008-05-01

    The isotopic and chemical signatures of groundwater reflect local climate conditions. By systematically analyzing groundwater and determining their hydrologic setting, records of past climates can be constructed. Because of their chemistries and relatively uncomplicated source functions, dissolved noble gases have yielded reliable records of continental temperatures for the last 30,000 to 50,000 years. Variations in the stable isotope compositions of groundwater due to long term climate changes have also been documented over these time scales. Because glacial - interglacial climate changes are relatively well known, these climate proxies can be used as "stratigraphic" markers within flow systems and used to distinguish groundwaters that have recharged during the Holocene from those recharged during the last glacial period, important time scales for distinguishing regional and local flow systems in many aquifers. In southern Georgia, the climate proxy tracers were able to identify leakage from surface aquifers into the Upper Floridan aquifer in areas previously thought to be confined. In south Florida, the transition between Holocene and glacial signatures in the Upper Floridan aquifer occurs mid-way between the recharge area and Lake Okeechobee. Down gradient of the lake, the proxies are uniform, indicating recharge during the last glacial period. Furthermore, there is no evidence for leakage from the shallow aquifers into the Upper Floridan. In the Lower Floridan, the climate proxies indicate that the saline water entered the aquifer after sea level rose to its present level.

  6. The IS-ENES climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data to impact users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Santiago Cofiño Gonzalez, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals (like the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project). This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national. In the presentation the following subjects will be detailed: - Lessons learned developing climate4impact.eu - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA).

  7. System's flips in climate-related energy (CRE) systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Engeland, Kolbjørn; François, Baptiste; Renard, Benjamin

    2014-05-01

    Several modern environmental questions invite to explore the complex relationships between natural phenomena and human behaviour at a range of space and time scales. This usually involves a number of cause-effect (causal) relationships, linking actions and events. In lay terms, 'effect' can be defined as 'what happened' and 'cause', 'why something happened.' In a changing world or merely moving from one scale to another, shifts in perspective are expected, bringing some phenomena into the foreground and putting others to the background. Systems can thus flip from one set of causal structures to another in response to environmental perturbations and human innovations or behaviors, for instance, as space-time signatures are modified. The identification of these flips helps in better understanding and predicting how societies and stakeholders react to a shift in perspective. In this study, our motivation is to investigate possible consequences of the shift to a low carbon economy in terms of socio-technico systems' flips. The focus is on the regional production of Climate-Related Energy (CRE) (hydro-, wind- and solar-power). We search for information on historic shifts that may help defining the forcing conditions of abrupt changes and extreme situations. We identify and present a series of examples in which we try to distinguish the various tipping points, thresholds, breakpoints and regime shifts that are characteristic of complex systems in the CRE production domain. We expect that with these examples our comprehension of the question will be enriched, providing us the elements needed to better validate modeling attempts, to predict and manage flips of complex CRE production systems. The work presented is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; http://www.complex.ac.uk/).

  8. Gauging the System: Trends in School Climate Measurement and Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, Meagan; Katz, Kristin; Renshaw, Tyler L.; Furlong, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Researchers and educators are giving increasing scrutiny to systems-level constructs that contribute to safe, supportive, and effective schools, including school climate. School climate is a multifaceted construct that is commonly conceptualized as school community members' subjective experiences of the structural and contextual elements of a…

  9. Responses of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change: Results from an earth system climate model simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shuang-Jing; CAO Long; LI Na

    2014-01-01

    Based on simulations using the University of Victoria’s Earth System Climate Model, we analyzed the responses of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change from 1800 to 2500 following the RCP 8.5 scenario and its extension. Compared to simulations without climate change, the simulation with a climate sensitivity of 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by4.5 Sv, and the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 decreases by 0.8 Pg C. Climate change is also found to have a large effect on the North Atlantic’s ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Between the years 1800 and 2500, compared with the simulation with no climate change, the simulation with climate change causes a reduction in the total anthropogenic CO2 column inventory over the entire ocean and in North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity variations from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a greater effect in reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

  10. Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

    2012-10-01

    Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Clouds-radiation interactions in a general circulation model - Impact upon the planetary radiation balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Laura D.; Vonder Haar, Thomas H.

    1991-01-01

    Simultaneously conducted observations of the earth radiation budget and the cloud amount estimates, taken during the June 1979 - May 1980 Nimbus 7 mission were used to show interactions between the cloud amount and raidation and to verify a long-term climate simulation obtained with the latest version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). The parameterization of the radiative, dynamic, and thermodynamic processes produced the mean radiation and cloud quantities that were in reasonable agreement with satellite observations, but at the expense of simulating their short-term fluctuations. The results support the assumption that the inclusion of the cloud liquid water (ice) variable would be the best mean to reduce the blinking of clouds in NCAR CCM.

  12. Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSR), for 1981 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was designed and executed as a global, high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to...

  13. Organizational Climate Assessment: a Systemic Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argentero, Piergiorgio; Setti, Ilaria

    A number of studies showed how the set up of an involving and motivating work environment represents a source for organizational competitive advantage: in this view organizational climate (OC) research occupies a preferred position in current I/O psychology. The present study is a review carried out to establish the breadth of the literature on the characteristics of OC assessment considered in a systemic perspective. An organization with a strong climate is a work environment whose members have similar understanding of the norms and practices and share the same expectations. OC should be considered as a sort of emergent entity and, as such, it can be studied only within a systemic perspective because it is linked with some organizational variables, in terms of antecedents (such as the organization's internal structure and its environmental features) and consequences (such as job performance, psychological well-being and withdrawal) of the climate itself. In particular, when employees have a positive view of their organizational environment, consistently with their values and interests, they are more likely to identify their personal goals with those of the organization and, in turn, to invest a greater effort to pursue them: the employees' perception of the organizational environment is positively related to the key outcomes such as job involvement, effort and performance. OC analysis could also be considered as an effective Organizational Development (OD) tool: in particular, the Survey Feedback, that is the return of the OC survey results, could be an effective instrument to assess the efficacy of specific OD programs, such as Team Building, TQM and Gainsharing. The present study is focused on the interest to investigate all possible variables which are potential moderators of the climate - outcome relationship: therefore future researches in the OC field should consider a great variety of organizational variables, considered in terms of antecedents and effects

  14. Reconstructing a lost Eocene Paradise, Part II: On the utility of dynamic global vegetation models in pre-Quaternary climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, Cindy J.; Sloan, Lisa C.

    2006-02-01

    Models that allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate provide a unique method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in pre-Quaternary time periods. In this paper, we consider how Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), which have been developed for simulations with present day climate, can be used for paleoclimate studies. We begin with a series of tests in the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM)-DGVM with Eocene geography to examine (1) the effect of removing C 4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO 2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. The tests were designed to highlight some of the challenges of using these models and prompt discussion of possible improvements. We discuss how lack of detail in model boundary conditions, uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, and inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM can affect interpretation of model results. However, we also review a number of DGVM features that can facilitate understanding of past climates and offer suggestions for improving paleo-DGVM studies.

  15. Modeling European ruminant production systems: facing the challenges of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kipling, Richard Philip; Bannink, Andre; Bellocchi, Gianni

    2016-01-01

    Ruminant production systems are important producers of food, support rural communities and culture, and help to maintain a range of ecosystem services including the sequestering of carbon in grassland soils. However, these systems also contribute significantly to climate change through greenhouse...... gas (GHG) emissions, while intensification of production has driven biodiversity and nutrient loss, and soil degradation. Modeling can offer insights into the complexity underlying the relationships between climate change, management and policy choices, food production, and the maintenance...... of ecosystem services. This paper 1) provides an overview of how ruminant systems modeling supports the efforts of stakeholders and policymakers to predict, mitigate and adapt to climate change and 2) provides ideas for enhancing modeling to fulfil this role. Many grassland models can predict plant growth...

  16. The non-linear paradigm: The climate system as an egg box''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iversen, Trond

    2000-01-01

    The article is the last of three dealing with the problems of climatic forecasting. It presents various ways of applying models and points out that regarding the climate system as non-linear and chaotic may be useful for interpreting observations and models. Some applications of the paradigm are presented. The emphasis is on climatic changes due to energy and human activities

  17. Variance decomposition shows the importance of human-climate feedbacks in the Earth system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. Current climate change projections contain significant uncertainties, however, and because Earth System Models do not generally include dynamic human (demography, economy, energy, water, land use) components, little is known about how climate feedbacks contribute to that uncertainty. Here we use variance decomposition of a novel coupled human-earth system model to show that the influence of human-climate feedbacks can be as large as 17% of the total variance in the near term for global mean temperature rise, and 11% in the long term for cropland area. The near-term contribution of energy and land use feedbacks to the climate on global mean temperature rise is as large as that from model internal variability, a factor typically considered in modeling studies. Conversely, the contribution of climate feedbacks to cropland extent, while non-negligible, is less than that from socioeconomics, policy, or model. Previous assessments have largely excluded these feedbacks, with the climate community focusing on uncertainty due to internal variability, scenario, and model and the integrated assessment community focusing on uncertainty due to socioeconomics, technology, policy, and model. Our results set the stage for a new generation of models and hypothesis testing to determine when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments of climate change.

  18. Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtman, Ben P.; Rousset, Clement; Siqueira, Leo [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Coral Gables, FL (United States); Bitz, Cecilia [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Science, Seattle, WA (United States); Bryan, Frank; Dennis, John; Hearn, Nathan; Loft, Richard; Tomas, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Collins, William [University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA (United States); Kinter, James L.; Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2012-09-15

    The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5) - the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5 atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5 ; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2 and meridional resolution varying from 0.27 at the equator to 0.54 in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1 ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2 C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the

  19. Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum—Crossing a Thermal Threshold in Earth's Climate System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerhold, T.; Röhl, U.; Donner, B.; Frederichs, T.; Kordesch, W. E. C.; Bohaty, S. M.; Hodell, D. A.; Laskar, J.; Zeebe, R. E.

    2018-01-01

    Recognizing and deciphering transient global warming events triggered by massive release of carbon into Earth's ocean-atmosphere climate system in the past are important for understanding climate under elevated pCO2 conditions. Here we present new high-resolution geochemical records including benthic foraminiferal stable isotope data with clear evidence of a short-lived (30 kyr) warming event at 41.52 Ma. The event occurs in the late Lutetian within magnetochron C19r and is characterized by a ˜2°C warming of the deep ocean in the southern South Atlantic. The magnitudes of the carbon and oxygen isotope excursions of the Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum are comparable to the H2 event (53.6 Ma) suggesting a similar response of the climate system to carbon cycle perturbations even in an already relatively cooler climate several million years after the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. Coincidence of the event with exceptionally high insolation values in the Northern Hemisphere at 41.52 Ma might indicate that Earth's climate system has a thermal threshold. When this tipping point is crossed, rapid positive feedback mechanisms potentially trigger transient global warming. The orbital configuration in this case could have caused prolonged warm and dry season leading to a massive release of terrestrial carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system initiating environmental change.

  20. Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, Forrest; Fung, Inez; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter; Foley, Jon; Covey, Curtis; John, Jasmin; Levis, Samuel; Post, W Mac; Vertenstein, Mariana; Stoeckli, Reto; Running, Steve; Heinsch, Faith Ann; Erickson, David; Drake, John

    2006-01-01

    Described here is the formulation of the CASA ' biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C 4 MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA ' is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  1. Teaching Scales in the Climate System: An example of interdisciplinary teaching and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baehr, Johanna; Behrens, Jörn; Brüggemann, Michael; Frisius, Thomas; Glessmer, Mirjam S.; Hartmann, Jens; Hense, Inga; Kaleschke, Lars; Kutzbach, Lars; Rödder, Simone; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is commonly regarded as one of 21st century's grand challenges that needs to be addressed by conducting integrated research combining natural and social sciences. To meet this need, how to best train future climate researchers should be reconsidered. Here, we present our experience from a team-taught semester-long course with students of the international master program "Integrated Climate System Sciences" (ICSS) at the University of Hamburg, Germany. Ten lecturers with different backgrounds in physical, mathematical, biogeochemical and social sciences accompanied by a researcher trained in didactics prepared and regularly participated in a course which consisted of weekly classes. The foundation of the course was the use of the concept of 'scales' - climate varying on different temporal and spatial scales - by developing a joint definition of 'scales in the climate system' that is applicable in the natural sciences and in the social sciences. By applying this interdisciplinary definition of 'scales' to phenomena from all components of the climate system and the socio-economic dimensions, we aimed for an integrated description of the climate system. Following the concept of research-driven teaching and learning and using a variety of teaching techniques, the students designed their own scale diagram to illustrate climate-related phenomena in different disciplines. The highlight of the course was the presentation of individually developed scale diagrams by every student with all lecturers present. Based on the already conducted course, we currently re-design the course concept to be teachable by a similarly large group of lecturers but with alternating presence in class. With further refinement and also a currently ongoing documentation of the teaching material, we will continue to use the concept of 'scales' as a vehicle for teaching an integrated view of the climate system.

  2. The vehicle data translator V3.0 system description.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-30

    With funding and support from the USDOT RITA and direction from the FHWA Road Weather Management Program, NCAR is developing a Vehicle Data Translator (VDT) software system that incorporates vehicle-based measurements of the road and surrounding atmo...

  3. Knowledge systems of societies for adaptation and mitigation of impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nautiyal, Sunil; Raju, K.V. [Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources; Rao, K.S. [Delhi Univ. (India). Dept. of Botany; Kaechele, Harald [Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Muencheberg (Germany). Inst. of Socioeconomics; Schaldach, Ruediger (ed.) [Kassel Univ. (Germany). Centre for Environmental System Research

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is broadly recognized as a key environmental issue affecting social and ecological systems worldwide. At the Cancun summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's 16th Conference, the parties jointly agreed that the vulnerable groups particularly in developing countries and whose livelihood is based on land use practices are the most common victims as in most cases their activities are shaped by the climate. Therefore, solving the climate dilemma through mitigation processes and scientific research is an ethical concern. Thus combining the knowledge systems of the societies and scientific evidences can greatly assist in the creation of coping mechanisms for sustainable development in a situation of changing climate. International Humboldt Kolleg focusing on ''knowledge systems of societies and Climate Change'' was organized at ISEC. This event was of unique importance, as the year 2011-12 was celebrated as the 60th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between India and Germany with the motto ''Germany and India - Infinite Opportunities.'' This volume is the outcome of the papers presented during the IHK 2011 at ISEC, India. It reports on the present knowledge systems in a third world country which has always practiced a live and let live philosophy. Furthermore it provides valuable information for understanding the complexity of socio-ecological systems in relation to the projected impacts of climate change.

  4. Edge states in the climate system: exploring global instabilities and critical transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Bódai, Tamás

    2017-07-01

    Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system’s response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and—for all practical purposes—irreversible changes in the properties of the system. As is well known, the Earth climate is multistable: present astronomical and astrophysical conditions support two stable regimes, the warm climate we live in, and a snowball climate characterized by global glaciation. We first provide an overview of methods and ideas relevant for studying the climate response to forcings and focus on the properties of critical transitions in the context of both stochastic and deterministic dynamics, and assess strengths and weaknesses of simplified approaches to the problem. Following an idea developed by Eckhardt and collaborators for the investigation of multistable turbulent fluid dynamical systems, we study the global instability giving rise to the snowball/warm multistability in the climate system by identifying the climatic edge state, a saddle embedded in the boundary between the two basins of attraction of the stable climates. The edge state attracts initial conditions belonging to such a boundary and, while being defined by the deterministic dynamics, is the gate facilitating noise-induced transitions between competing attractors. We use a simplified yet Earth-like intermediate complexity climate model constructed by coupling a primitive equations model of the atmosphere with a simple diffusive ocean. We refer to the climatic edge states as Melancholia states and provide an extensive analysis of their features. We study their dynamics, their symmetry properties, and we follow a complex set of bifurcations. We find situations where the Melancholia state has chaotic dynamics. In these cases, we have that the basin boundary between the two basins of attraction is a strange geometric set with a nearly zero

  5. The climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data infrastructure to impact users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Pagé, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Cofiño, Antonio; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

    2015-04-01

    Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs This architecture will also be used for the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project. - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot The current main objectives for climate4impact can be summarized in two objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals. This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national, for example.

  6. Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2003-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

  7. Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, J.T.; Wood, A.W.; Hamlet, A.F.; Palmer, R.N.; Lettenmaier, D.P. [Department of Civil Engineering, 164 Wilcox Hall, P.O. Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a 'business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995-2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate (2040-2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1-3: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5, +1.3 and +2.1C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were -3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040-2060 period was +1.2C and the average winter precipitation change was -3 percent, relative to the RCM control climate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative

  8. Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Berrang-Ford

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

  9. Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Forrest [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Fung, Inez [University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California (United States); Randerson, Jim [University of California at Irvine, Irvine, California (United States); Thornton, Peter [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Foley, Jon [University of Wisconsin at Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (United States); Covey, Curtis [Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States); John, Jasmin [University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California (United States); Levis, Samuel [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Post, W Mac [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Stoeckli, Reto [Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado (United States); Running, Steve [University of Montana, Missoula, Montana (United States); Heinsch, Faith Ann [University of Montana, Missoula, Montana (United States); Erickson, David [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Drake, John [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States)

    2006-09-15

    Described here is the formulation of the CASA{sup '} biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C{sup 4}MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA{sup '} is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

  10. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

  11. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

    2011-01-01

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  12. Building Systems from Scratch: an Exploratory Study of Students Learning About Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puttick, Gillian; Tucker-Raymond, Eli

    2018-01-01

    Science and computational practices such as modeling and abstraction are critical to understanding the complex systems that are integral to climate science. Given the demonstrated affordances of game design in supporting such practices, we implemented a free 4-day intensive workshop for middle school girls that focused on using the visual programming environment, Scratch, to design games to teach others about climate change. The experience was carefully constructed so that girls of widely differing levels of experience were able to engage in a cycle of game design. This qualitative study aimed to explore the representational choices the girls made as they took up aspects of climate change systems and modeled them in their games. Evidence points to the ways in which designing games about climate science fostered emergent systems thinking and engagement in modeling practices as learners chose what to represent in their games, grappled with the realism of their respective representations, and modeled interactions among systems components. Given the girls' levels of programming skill, parts of systems were more tractable to create than others. The educational purpose of the games was important to the girls' overall design experience, since it influenced their choice of topic, and challenged their emergent understanding of climate change as a systems problem.

  13. How does Interactive Chemistry Influence the Representation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in a Climate Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, S.; Matthes, K. B.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in stratospheric ozone can trigger tropospheric circulation changes. In the Southern hemisphere (SH), the observed shift of the Southern Annular Mode was attributed to the observed trend in lower stratospheric ozone. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a recent study showed that extremely low stratospheric ozone conditions during spring produce robust anomalies in the troposphere (zonal wind, temperature and precipitation). This could only be reproduced in a coupled chemistry climate model indicating that chemical-dynamical feedbacks are also important on the NH. To further investigate the importance of interactive chemistry for surface climate, we conducted a set of experiments using NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) as the atmosphere component. WACCM contains a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry module in its standard configuration. It also allows for an alternative configuration, referred to as SC-WACCM, in which the chemistry (O3, NO, O, O2, CO2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates) is specified as a 2D field in the radiation code. A comparison of the interactive vs. the specified chemistry version enables us to evaluate the relative importance of interactive chemistry by systematically inhibiting the feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics. To diminish the effect of temporal interpolation when prescribing ozone, we use daily resolved zonal mean ozone fields for the specified chemistry run. Here, we investigate the differences in stratosphere-troposphere coupling between the interactive and specified chemistry simulations for the mainly chemically driven SH as well as for the mainly dynamically driven NH. We will especially consider years that are characterized by extremely low stratospheric ozone on the one hand and by large dynamical disturbances, i.e. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, on the other hand.

  14. The fire-vegetation-climate system: how ecology can contribute to earth system science

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archibald, S

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available and future state of global vegetation. A key complexity that is currently not well captured by Earth System models is that vegetation is not always deterministically responsive to climate and soils. Feedbacks within the Earth System, top-down controls...

  15. The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

    2010-01-01

    In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

  16. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  17. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rurinda, J.

    2014-01-01

    Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation

    Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood system in

  18. Scariest thing about climate change: climate flips

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaulieu, P.

    1997-01-01

    The idea that an increase in greenhouse gases will cause the global average temperature to rise slowly over the next decades was discussed. Studies of ice core from Greenland have shown that in the past climate shifts seem to have happened quickly. Some scientists fear that increasingly frequent extreme weather events could be a sign that the climate system is nearing its threshold and a rapid climate flip may be just ahead. In the case of global climatic system, the danger is that stresses from greenhouse gas effects are pushing the present system over the threshold where it must flip into a new warmer system that will be stable, but different from the climate on which our agriculture, economy, settlements and lives depend. 4 refs

  19. Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

    2011-12-01

    A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

  20. Planning for climate change on the National Wildlife Refuge System

    Science.gov (United States)

    B. Czech; S. Covington; T. M. Crimmins; J. A. Ericson; C. Flather; M. Gale; K. Gerst; M. Higgins; M. Kaib; E. Marino; T. Moran; J. Morton; N. Niemuth; H. Peckett; D. Savignano; L. Saperstein; S. Skorupa; E. Wagener; B. Wilen; B. Wolfe

    2014-01-01

    This document originated in 2008 as a collaborative project of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the University of Maryland's Graduate Program in Sustainable Development and Conservation Biology. The original title was A Primer on Climate Change for the National Wildlife Refuge System. The Primer has evolved into Planning for Climate Change on the...

  1. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  2. Constructing the reduced dynamical models of interannual climate variability from spatial-distributed time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    We suggest a method for empirical forecast of climate dynamics basing on the reconstruction of reduced dynamical models in a form of random dynamical systems [1,2] derived from observational time series. The construction of proper embedding - the set of variables determining the phase space the model works in - is no doubt the most important step in such a modeling, but this task is non-trivial due to huge dimension of time series of typical climatic fields. Actually, an appropriate expansion of observational time series is needed yielding the number of principal components considered as phase variables, which are to be efficient for the construction of low-dimensional evolution operator. We emphasize two main features the reduced models should have for capturing the main dynamical properties of the system: (i) taking into account time-lagged teleconnections in the atmosphere-ocean system and (ii) reflecting the nonlinear nature of these teleconnections. In accordance to these principles, in this report we present the methodology which includes the combination of a new way for the construction of an embedding by the spatio-temporal data expansion and nonlinear model construction on the basis of artificial neural networks. The methodology is aplied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data including fields of sea level pressure, geopotential height, and wind speed, covering Northern Hemisphere. Its efficiency for the interannual forecast of various climate phenomena including ENSO, PDO, NAO and strong blocking event condition over the mid latitudes, is demonstrated. Also, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce and predict the evolution of qualitative features of the dynamics, such as spectral peaks, critical transitions and statistics of extremes. This research was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS) [1] Y. I. Molkov, E. M. Loskutov, D. N. Mukhin, and A. M. Feigin, "Random

  3. Dollar Summary of Prime Contract Awards by State, County, Contractor, and Place, FY83, Part 2 (Oceana, Michigan - Weston, Wyoming).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    WILSON AIR SYSTEMS INC WILSON 1,302 745 557 NCAR WILSON FIRESTONE TIRE a RUBBER CO WILSON 42 42 NCAR WILSON INDUSTRIAL TECH INC ELM CITY 27 27 NCAR...THERMATICS ELM CITY 807 34 773 NCAR WILSON TOTAL COUNTY 3,840 836 359 1,214 1,431 NCAR YADKIN ASTORIA BRAID MFG CO INC BOONVILLE 113 113 NCAR YADKIN TOTAL...INC SLIPPERY ROCK 152 152 PA BUTLER M S A RESEARCH CORP EVANS CITY 227 227 PA BUTLER MINE SAFETY APPLIANCES CO EVANS CITY 8,531 253 311 1,339 6,628 PA

  4. Impacts of 2000-2050 Climate Change on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality in China Based on Statistical Projections Using an Ensemble of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, D. M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Shen, L.; Moch, J. M.; van Donkelaar, A.; Mickley, L. J.

    2017-12-01

    Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality is strongly dependent on not only on emissions but also meteorological conditions. Here we examine the dominant synoptic circulation patterns that control day-to-day PM2.5 variability over China. We perform principal component (PC) analysis on 1998-2016 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I daily meteorological fields to diagnose distinct synoptic meteorological modes, and perform PC regression on spatially interpolated 2014-2016 daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in China to identify modes dominantly explaining PM2.5 variability. We find that synoptic systems, e.g., cold-frontal passages, maritime inflow and frontal precipitation, can explain up to 40% of the day-to-day PM2.5 variability in major metropolitan regions in China. We further investigate how annually changing frequencies of synoptic systems, as well as changing local meteorology, drive interannual PM2.5 variability. We apply a spectral analysis on the PC time series to obtain the 1998-2016 annual median synoptic frequency, and use a forward-selection multiple linear regression (MLR) model of satellite-derived 1998-2015 annual mean PM2.5 concentrations on local meteorology and synoptic frequency, selecting predictors that explain the highest fraction of interannual PM2.5 variability while guarding against multicollinearity. To estimate the effect of climate change on future PM2.5 air quality, we project a multimodel ensemble of 15 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario on the PM2.5-to-meteorology sensitivities derived for the present-day from the MLR model. Our results show that climate change could be responsible for increases in PM2.5 of more than 25 μg m-3 in northwestern China and 10 mg m-3 in northeastern China by the 2050s. Increases in synoptic frequency of cold-frontal passages cause only a modest 1 μg m-3 decrease in PM2.5 in North China Plain. Our analyses show that climate change imposes a significant penalty on air quality over China and poses serious threat on

  5. A new 2D climate model with chemistry and self consistent eddy-parameterization. The impact of airplane NO{sub x} on the chemistry of the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gepraegs, R.; Schmitz, G.; Peters, D. [Institut fuer Atmosphaerenphysik, Kuehlungsborn (Germany)

    1997-12-31

    A 2D version of the ECHAM T21 climate model has been developed. The new model includes an efficient spectral transport scheme with implicit diffusion. Furthermore, photodissociation and chemistry of the NCAR 2D model have been incorporated. A self consistent parametrization scheme is used for eddy heat- and momentum flux in the troposphere. It is based on the heat flux parametrization of Branscome and mixing-length formulation for quasi-geostrophic vorticity. Above 150 hPa the mixing-coefficient K{sub yy} is prescribed. Some of the model results are discussed, concerning especially the impact of aircraft NO{sub x} emission on the model chemistry. (author) 6 refs.

  6. A new 2D climate model with chemistry and self consistent eddy-parameterization. The impact of airplane NO{sub x} on the chemistry of the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gepraegs, R; Schmitz, G; Peters, D [Institut fuer Atmosphaerenphysik, Kuehlungsborn (Germany)

    1998-12-31

    A 2D version of the ECHAM T21 climate model has been developed. The new model includes an efficient spectral transport scheme with implicit diffusion. Furthermore, photodissociation and chemistry of the NCAR 2D model have been incorporated. A self consistent parametrization scheme is used for eddy heat- and momentum flux in the troposphere. It is based on the heat flux parametrization of Branscome and mixing-length formulation for quasi-geostrophic vorticity. Above 150 hPa the mixing-coefficient K{sub yy} is prescribed. Some of the model results are discussed, concerning especially the impact of aircraft NO{sub x} emission on the model chemistry. (author) 6 refs.

  7. Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci, Cubo 31C, I-87036, Rende (CS) (Italy); Vecchio, Antonio, E-mail: tommaso.alberti@unical.it, E-mail: tommasoalberti89@gmail.com [LESIA—Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, 5 place Jules Janssen, F-92190, Meudon (France)

    2017-07-20

    The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.

  8. Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.

  9. The case for systems thinking about climate change and mental health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Helen L.; Waite, Thomas D.; Dear, Keith B. G.; Capon, Anthony G.; Murray, Virginia

    2018-04-01

    It is increasingly necessary to quantify the impacts of climate change on populations, and to quantify the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite growing interest in the health effects of climate change, the relationship between mental health and climate change has received little attention in research or policy. Here, we outline current thinking about climate change and mental health, and discuss crucial limitations in modern epidemiology for examining this issue. A systems approach, complemented by a new style of research thinking and leadership, can help align the needs of this emerging field with existing and research policy agendas.

  10. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatt, Uma S. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Wackerbauer, Renate [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Polyakov, Igor V. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Newman, David E. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Sanchez, Raul E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Fusion Energy Division; Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)

    2015-11-13

    The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

  11. Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Y.; Kim, D.; Camargo, S. J.; Wing, A. A.; Sobel, A. H.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

    2017-12-01

    Simulating tropical cyclone (TC) activity with global climate models (GCMs) remains a challenging problem. While some GCMs are able to simulate TC activity that is in good agreement with the observations, many other models exhibit strong biases. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing of the GCM simulations tends to improve the characteristics of simulated TCs, but this enhancement alone does not necessarily lead to greater skill in simulating TC activity. This study uses process-based diagnostics to identify model characteristics that could explain why some GCM simulations are able to produce more realistic TC activity than others. The diagnostics examine how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled at individual grid points, which yields useful information into how convective parameterizations interact with resolved model dynamics. These diagnostics share similarities with those originally developed to examine the Madden-Julian Oscillations in climate models. This study will examine TCs in eight different GCM simulations performed at NOAA/GFDL, NCAR and NASA that have different horizontal resolutions and ocean coupling. Preliminary results suggest that stronger TCs are closely associated with greater rainfall - thus greater diabatic heating - in the inner-core regions of the storms, which is consistent with previous theoretical studies. Other storm characteristics that can be used to infer why GCM simulations with comparable horizontal grid spacings produce different TC activity will be examined.

  12. A Systems Approach to Climate, Water and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharward, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, J. E.; Zimmerman, J.

    2014-12-01

    Although evidence suggests that climate change will negatively impact water resources and hence diarrheal disease rates in the developing world, there is uncertainty surrounding prior studies. This is due to the complexity of the pathways by which climate impacts diarrhea rates making it difficult to develop interventions. Therefore, our goal was to develop a mechanistic systems approach that incorporates the complex climate, human, engineered and water systems to relate climate change to diarrhea rates under future climate scenarios.To do this, we developed an agent-based model (ABM). Our agents are households and children living in Hubli-Dharward, India. The model was informed with 15 months of weather, water quality, ethnographic and diarrhea incidence data. The model's front end is a stochastic weather simulator incorporating 15 global climate models to simulate rainfall and temperature. The water quality available to agents (residents) on a model "day" is a function of the simulated day's weather and is fully validated with field data. As with the field data, as the ambient temperature increases or it rains, the quality of water available to residents in the model deteriorates. The propensity for an resident to get diarrhea is calculated with an integrated Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model with uncertainty simulated with a bootstrap method. Other factors include hand-washing, improved water sources, household water treatment and improved sanitation.The benefits of our approach are as follows: Our mechanistic method allows us to develop scientifically derived adaptation strategies. We can quantitatively link climate scenarios with diarrhea incidence over long time periods. We can explore the complex climate and water system dynamics, rank risk factor importance, examine a broad range of scenarios and identify tipping points. Our approach is modular and expandable such that new datasets can be integrated to study climate impacts on a larger scale. Our

  13. System and Method for Providing a Climate Data Analytic Services Application Programming Interface Distribution Package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnase, John L. (Inventor); Duffy, Daniel Q. (Inventor); Tamkin, Glenn S. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A system, method and computer-readable storage devices for providing a climate data analytic services application programming interface distribution package. The example system can provide various components. The system provides a climate data analytic services application programming interface library that enables software applications running on a client device to invoke the capabilities of a climate data analytic service. The system provides a command-line interface that provides a means of interacting with a climate data analytic service by issuing commands directly to the system's server interface. The system provides sample programs that call on the capabilities of the application programming interface library and can be used as templates for the construction of new client applications. The system can also provide test utilities, build utilities, service integration utilities, and documentation.

  14. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2014-04-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  15. Future local and remote influences on Mediterranean ozone air quality and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Steve; Martin, Maria Val; Emmons, Louisa; Rap, Alex; Heald, Colette; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is expected to display large increases in population over the coming decades, and to exhibit strong sensitivity to projected climate change, with increasing frequency of extreme summer temperatures and decreases in precipitation. Understanding of how these changes will affect atmospheric composition in the region is limited. The eastern Mediterranean basin has been shown to exhibit a pronounced summertime local maximum in tropospheric ozone, which impacts both local air quality and the atmospheric radiation balance. In summer, the region is subject to import of pollution from Northern Europe in the boundary layer and lower troposphere, from North American sources in the large-scale westerly flow of the free mid and upper-troposphere, as well as import of pollution lofted in the Asian monsoon and carried west to the eastern Mediterranean in anticyclonic flow in the upper troposphere over north Africa. In addition, interactions with the land-surface through biogenic emission sources and dry deposition play important roles in the Mediterranean ozone budget. Here we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate how tropospheric ozone in the Mediterranean region responds to climate, land surface and global emissions changes between present day and 2050. We simulate climate and atmospheric composition for the year 2050, based on greenhouse gas abundances, trace gas and aerosol emissions and land cover and use from two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), designed for use by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) experiments in support of the IPCC. By comparing these simulations with a present-day scenario, we investigate the effects of predicted changes in climate and emissions on air quality and climate forcing over the Mediterranean region. The simulations suggest decreases in boundary layer ozone and sulfate aerosol throughout the tropospheric column over the Mediterranean

  16. Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

    2005-03-24

    Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

  17. Changes on the coastline of buenaventura bay (colombian pacific) and its relationship with the climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza; Andres Ordoñez, Silvio

    2016-04-01

    Some authors point out that the variability of a coastal system is the response of physical factors (climate, waves, currents, wind, etc.) or combination of some of them, for example long-term variations in the relationship between climate and supply of sedimentary material. For Colombian Pacific coast it has been said that the regimen of meso-tidal is one of the agents that contribute to changes in the morphology of the littoral zone. Between 2012-2015 was conducted a research in the mouth of Buenaventura Bay (Colombia Pacific coast), using two stations: Soldado point (southern point of the bay) and Bazan point (the northern point of the bay), for those stations the digital elevation model (DEM) was performed using a DGPS with technology GNSS the recent evolution of the coastline and changes in volume of sand from beaches for two scalar approaches were determined: annual and intra-annual. The use of ArcGIS 3D Analyst in the DEMs allowed to calculate the cubic area between the raised surfaces each month. Changes in the coastline were made using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) an ARCGIS extension. We used zonal and meridional components of the wind data near the coast from WindSat, rainfall and sea level anomaly data from the database AVISO (Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic), and sea level pressure (SLP) from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research), in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, climatic variables were correlated with the rates of coastal erosion and changes in sand volume of the beaches, because wind and precipitation are some of the factors in sediment transport. The study showed erosion rates with negative values in 2014 and 2015 that represent loss of land, the intra-annual variability in September and October were the highest loss of land, this coincides with the values of the highest tides of the

  18. Using the CLEAN educational resource collection for building three-dimensional lessons to teach the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, A. U.; Sullivan, S. M.; Manning, C. L. B.; Ledley, T. S.; Youngman, E.; Taylor, J.; Niepold, F., III; Kirk, K.; Lockwood, J.; Bruckner, M. Z.; Fox, S.

    2017-12-01

    The impacts of climate change are a critical societal challenge of the 21st century. Educating students about the globally connected climate system is key in supporting the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Systems thinking is required for students to understand the complex, dynamic climate systems and the role that humans play within them. The interdisciplinary nature of climate science challenges educators, who often don't have formal training in climate science, to identify resources that are scientifically accurate before weaving them together into units that teach about the climate system. The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) supports this work by providing over 700 peer-reviewed, classroom-ready resources on climate and energy topics. The resource collection itself provide only limited instructional guidance, so educators need to weave the resources together to build multi-dimensional lessons that develop systems thinking skills. The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) science standards encourage educators to teach science in a 3-dimensional approach that trains students in systems thinking. The CLEAN project strives to help educators design NGSS-style, three-dimensional lessons about the climate system. Two approaches are currently being modeled on the CLEAN web portal. The first is described in the CLEAN NGSS "Get Started Guide" which follows a step-by-step process starting with the Disciplinary Core Idea and then interweaves the Cross-Cutting Concepts (CCC) and the Science and Engineering Practices (SEP) based on the teaching strategy chosen for the lesson or unit topic. The second model uses a climate topic as a starting place and the SEP as the guide through a four-step lesson sequence called "Earth Systems Investigations". Both models use CLEAN reviewed lessons as the core activity but provide the necessary framework for classroom implementation. Sample lessons that were developed following these two

  19. Performance of desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy under different climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Agouz, S.A.; Kabeel, A.E.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ω in , air and T Reg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The T sup,air , ω sup,air , COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates

  20. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the

  1. Supporting NGSS-aligned Study of Authentic Data about Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalles, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    The subject of climate change holds tremendous opportunity for students to learn how scientists use data to develop and test theories of how the natural world works and appreciate how climate change instantiates cross-cutting NGSS science themes like stability and change, energy and matter, and cause and effect. To do so, students and teachers need help seeing in authentic Earth system data complex climate interactions and generate plans for building greater understanding of the complexities through further data investigation. With ever-growing repositories of global and regional public data and user friendly tools for their display, K-12 educators are challenged to help students study data independently rather than through the usual pre-filtered didactic presentations of data found in textbooks. The paper will describe strategies for facilitating critical thinking about authentic climate-related data in two climate change education projects funded by NASA and NSF, as well as learning outcomes. Data Enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (dicce.sri.com) brings data from NASA satellite missions to classrooms. Studying Topography, Orographic Rainfall, and Ecosystems with Geospatial Information Technology (store.sri.com) provides recent climatological and vegetation data about certain study areas in California and New York plus geospatially distributed projected values of temperature, precipitation, and land cover in 2050 and 2099, derived from NCAR's A2 climate change model. Supportive resources help students move from naïve conceptions of simple linear relationships between variables into critical analysis of what other variables could be mediating those relationships. DICCE contains guides for how to interpret multiyear trends that are evident in the NASA mission data in relation to what we know about current climate change. If a learner plots a line of best fit across multiple months or years of regional data and notices that the line is either

  2. Performance of laying hens and economic viability of different climatization systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela F. Silva

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Since thermal environment affects production, egg quality and laying hens’ mortality rates, it is highly relevant to control the thermal environment within poultry houses so that the best financial profits could be obtained. Three commercial poultry houses with different climatization systems are analyzed in current research: a poultry house with tunnel-like ventilation and pad cooling; a poultry house with natural ventilation and nebulization; a poultry house with simple natural ventilation. Their thermal environment, production, egg quality and laying hens’ mortality rates among different poultry houses and at different areas of the same poultry house are compared. Economic profits based on difference in electric energy consumption by climatization systems and on the laying hens’ productivity of each poultry house are calculated. Electricity meters were installed within the electrical circuits of the climatization and light systems of the three poultry houses. Data were registered between December 2011 and March 2012 and results showed that all the poultry houses featured heterogeneity in internal thermal environment with faults in the climatization systems. Important differences were reported in egg production and quality caused by overheating. The poultry house with tunnel-like ventilation and pad cooling had the best thermal isolation from the external environment that resulted in a 12.04% improvement in production, decrease between 30 and 40% in laying hens’ mortality rates and the best economic result.

  3. Climate Literacy: Progress in Climate and Global Change Undergraduate Courses in Meteorology and Earth System Science Programs at Jackson State University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.; Tuluri, F.; Fadavi, M.

    2017-12-01

    JSU Meteorology Program will be offering AMS Climate Studies undergraduate course under MET 210: Climatology in spring 2013. AMS Climate Studies is offered as a 3 credit hour laboratory course with 2 lectures and 1 lab sessions per week. Although this course places strong intellectual demands upon each student, the instructors' objective is to help each student to pass the course with an adequate understanding of the fundamentals and advanced and advanced courses. AMS Climate Studies is an introductory college-level course developed by the American Meteorological Society for implementation at undergraduate institutions nationwide. The course places students in a dynamic and highly motivational educational environment where they investigate Earth's climate system using real-world environmental data. The AMS Climate Studies course package consists of a textbook, investigations manual, course website, and course management system-compatible files. Instructors can use these resources in combinations that make for an exciting learning experience for their students. This is a content course in Earth Science. It introduces a new concept that views Earth as a synergistic physical system applied concepts of climatology, for him/her to understand basic atmospheric/climate processes, physical and dynamical climatology, regional climatology, past and future climates and statistical analysis using climate data and to be prepared to profit from studying more of interrelated phenomenon governed by complex processes involving the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the biosphere, and the solid Earth. The course emphasizes that the events that shape the physical, chemical, and biological processes of the Earth do not occur in isolation. Rather, there is a delicate relationship between the events that occur in the ocean, atmosphere, and the solid Earth. The course provides a multidimensional approach in solving scientific issues related to Earth-related sciences,

  4. Actor Network Theory Approach and its Application in Investigating Agricultural Climate Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Sharifzadeh

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Actor network theory as a qualitative approach to study complex social factors and process of socio-technical interaction provides new concepts and ideas to understand socio-technical nature of information systems. From the actor network theory viewpoint, agricultural climate information system is a network consisting of actors, actions and information related processes (production, transformation, storage, retrieval, integration, diffusion and utilization, control and management, and system mechanisms (interfaces and networks. Analysis of such systemsembody the identification of basic components and structure of the system (nodes –thedifferent sources of information production, extension, and users, and the understanding of how successfully the system works (interaction and links – in order to promote climate knowledge content and improve system performance to reach agricultural development. The present research attempted to introduce actor network theory as research framework based on network view of agricultural climate information system.

  5. Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivey, Mark D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robinson, David G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boslough, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peterson, Kara J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Desilets, Darin Maurice [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reinert, Rhonda Karen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

  6. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  7. Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Knowledge Gaps, Planned Observations to Address Them, and Implications for Global Climate Change Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.; Haywood, J.; Luna, B.; Abel, S.

    2015-01-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded

  8. The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Challenges to the International System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halden, Peter

    2007-12-01

    This report analyses the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of international security. From this perspective, the initial effects of climate change will vary according to existing economic, political and social structures in different world regions. Organised violence is more likely in regions with weak states and conflictual inter-state dynamics than in those characterised by co-operative relations. In the short- to medium term, climate change is unlikely to alter the constitutive structures of international security. However, depending on the severity of climate change, these conditions may change over the long term. Such changes will probably depend on the secondary effects that change has on the world and regional economies. Climate change is unlikely to lead to an increase in conflicts in the short- to medium term, but a long-term development marked by unmitigated climate change could very well have serious consequences for international security. The report argues that, although necessary, mitigation and adaptation measures may have consequences for international politics. These are due to the changes in social and political systems that they entail

  9. The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Challenges to the International System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halden, Peter

    2007-12-15

    This report analyses the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of international security. From this perspective, the initial effects of climate change will vary according to existing economic, political and social structures in different world regions. Organised violence is more likely in regions with weak states and conflictual inter-state dynamics than in those characterised by co-operative relations. In the short- to medium term, climate change is unlikely to alter the constitutive structures of international security. However, depending on the severity of climate change, these conditions may change over the long term. Such changes will probably depend on the secondary effects that change has on the world and regional economies. Climate change is unlikely to lead to an increase in conflicts in the short- to medium term, but a long-term development marked by unmitigated climate change could very well have serious consequences for international security. The report argues that, although necessary, mitigation and adaptation measures may have consequences for international politics. These are due to the changes in social and political systems that they entail.

  10. Urbanism, climate change and health: systems approaches to governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capon, Anthony G; Synnott, Emma S; Holliday, Sue

    2009-01-01

    Effective action on climate change health impacts and vulnerability will require systems approaches and integrated policy and planning responses from a range of government agencies. Similar responses are needed to address other complex problems, such as the obesity epidemic. Local government, with its focus on the governance of place, will have a key role in responding to these convergent agendas. Industry can also be part of the solution - indeed it must be, because it has a lead role in relevant sectors. Understanding the co-benefits for health of climate mitigation actions will strengthen the case for early action. There is a need for improved decision support tools to inform urban governance. These tools should be based on a systems approach and should incorporate a spatial perspective.

  11. Climatic controls on arid continental basin margin systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gough, Amy; Clarke, Stuart; Richards, Philip; Milodowski, Antoni

    2016-04-01

    Alluvial fans are both dominant and long-lived within continental basin margin systems. As a result, they commonly interact with a variety of depositional systems that exist at different times in the distal extent of the basin as the basin evolves. The deposits of the distal basin often cycle between those with the potential to act as good aquifers and those with the potential to act as good aquitards. The interactions between the distal deposits and the basin margin fans can have a significant impact upon basin-scale fluid flow. The fans themselves are commonly considered as relatively homogeneous, but their sedimentology is controlled by a variety of factors, including: 1) differing depositional mechanisms; 2) localised autocyclic controls; 3) geometrical and temporal interactions with deposits of the basin centre; and, 4) long-term allocyclic climatic variations. This work examines the basin margin systems of the Cutler Group sediments of the Paradox Basin, western U.S.A and presents generalised facies models for the Cutler Group alluvial fans as well as for the zone of interaction between these fans and the contemporaneous environments in the basin centre, at a variety of scales. Small-scale controls on deposition include climate, tectonics, base level and sediment supply. It has been ascertained that long-term climatic alterations were the main control on these depositional systems. Models have been constructed to highlight how both long-term and short-term alterations in the climatic regime can affect the sedimentation in the basin. These models can be applied to better understand similar, but poorly exposed, alluvial fan deposits. The alluvial fans of the Brockram Facies, northern England form part of a once-proposed site for low-level nuclear waste decommissioning. As such, it is important to understand the sedimentology, three-dimensional geometry, and the proposed connectivity of the deposits from the perspective of basin-scale fluid flow. The developed

  12. Optimization of regional water - power systems under cooling constraints and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Payet-burin, Raphaël; Bertoni, Federica; Davidsen, Claus

    2018-01-01

    Thermo-electric generation represents 70% of Europe's electricity production and 43% of water withdrawals, and is therefore a key element of the water-energy nexus. In 2003, 2006 and 2009, several thermal power plants had to be switched off in Europe because of heat waves, showing the need...... to assess the impact of climate change on cooling constraints of thermal power plants. An integrated water-power model of the Iberian Peninsula was developed in this study. It includes a physical hydrologic representation, spatially and temporally resolved water demands, management of water infrastructure...... and a simple power system model. The system was evaluated under present and future climatic conditions using different climate change scenarios. The cost of cooling constraints is found to increase by 220–640 million €/year, for the period 2046–2065 depending on the climate change scenario. Average available...

  13. Towards a climate-driven dengue decision support system for Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Cazelles, Bernard; Paul, Richard; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Environmental explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to

  14. Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

    2012-11-01

    Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

  15. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  16. Adaptation potential to climate change of the Peribonka River (Quebec, Canada) water resources system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Krau, S.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the influence of climatic change on the Peribonka water resources system. The impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power reservoir operations in the region were assessed using a set of operating rules optimized for future hydrological regimes. Thirty climate change projections from 5 climate models, 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, and 3 temporal horizons were used in the study. Climatic change projections were then downscaled using the Delta approach and coupled to a stochastic weather generator developed to account for natural variabilities in local climates. A lumped hydrological model was used to simulate future hydrological regimes. A stochastic dynamic programming technique was then used to optimize reservoir operating rules for various time series of future river flows. The operating rules were then used in conjunction with a river system simulation tool in order to determine reservoir and hydroelectric production scenarios under different climatic change regimes. Results of the study showed significant increases in hydroelectricity production for most of the climate change projections. However, nonproductive spillage was also increased. Reservoir reliability was also reduced. tabs., figs

  17. Final report: The effect of climate change on the Norwegian Energy System towards 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, P.; Rosenberg, E.; Fidje, A.; Meir, M.; Haugen, J.E.; Jarlseth, T.

    2010-08-15

    The climate impact on the renewable resources, end use demand, and on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050 is identified. Climate change will reduce the heat demand, increase the cooling demand, result in no impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro power potential. The total impact is reduced energy system costs, and lower Norwegian electricity prices. The net electricity export will increase, and national investments in new renewable power production like offshore wind- , tidal- and wave power will decrease due to climate change. Additionally, the electricity consumption in the residential and in the commercial sector will decrease, and climate change will lead to an earlier profitable implementation of electric based vehicles in Norway. Despite great uncertainties in the future climate, various future emission scenarios are compatible regarding the Norwegian climate impact, although the magnitude of the impact varies. (Author)

  18. Reproductive responses to climatic heat induced by management systems in swamp buffaloes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dollah, M.A.; Ramakrishnan, N.; Nordin, Y.; Abdullah Sani, R.

    1990-01-01

    Climatic heat is one of the factors influencing the reproductive performance of swamp buffaloes. Any management system that imposes high climatic heat stress tends to reduce reproductive performance. Buffaloes grazing in an open hilly ranch system reached puberty later (at an age of 33 months) and at heavier body weight (365 kg) than animals raised in confinement (26 months and 289 kg). Physiological data (water metabolism and thyroid activity) indicated that grazing animals had to tolerate a higher heat load. High climatic temperatures were found to depress ovarian activity, especially during the dry season. The effect was observed only in cycling buffaloes denied wallow. Buffaloes having access to wallows were able to maintain their heat balance under various levels of heat load by adjusting their water requirements, mobilizing their body water and adjusting their metabolic rate (thyroid activity). It is concluded that stressful climatic temperatures can depress the reproductive performance of young heifers and adult swamp buffaloes, and that climatic heat stress directly depresses ovarian activity in swamp buffaloes. (author). 16 refs, 1 fig., 4 tabs

  19. Arctic melt ponds and energy balance in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudakov, Ivan

    2017-02-01

    Elements of Earth's cryosphere, such as the summer Arctic sea ice pack, are melting at precipitous rates that have far outpaced the projections of large scale climate models. Understanding key processes, such as the evolution of melt ponds that form atop Arctic sea ice and control its optical properties, is crucial to improving climate projections. These types of critical phenomena in the cryosphere are of increasing interest as the climate system warms, and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this paper, we consider how geometrical properties of melt ponds can influence ice-albedo feedback and how it can influence the equilibria in the energy balance of the planet.

  20. A Power Efficient Exaflop Computer Design for Global Cloud System Resolving Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Oliker, L.; Shalf, J.

    2008-12-01

    Exascale computers would allow routine ensemble modeling of the global climate system at the cloud system resolving scale. Power and cost requirements of traditional architecture systems are likely to delay such capability for many years. We present an alternative route to the exascale using embedded processor technology to design a system optimized for ultra high resolution climate modeling. These power efficient processors, used in consumer electronic devices such as mobile phones, portable music players, cameras, etc., can be tailored to the specific needs of scientific computing. We project that a system capable of integrating a kilometer scale climate model a thousand times faster than real time could be designed and built in a five year time scale for US$75M with a power consumption of 3MW. This is cheaper, more power efficient and sooner than any other existing technology.

  1. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gent, Peter; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Conley, Andrew; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Anthony

    2013-02-13

    The objective of this award was to build a scalable and extensible Earth System Model that can be used to study climate change science. That objective has been achieved with the public release of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In particular, the development of the CESM1 atmospheric chemistry component was substantially funded by this award, as was the development of the significantly improved coupler component. The CESM1 allows new climate change science in areas such as future air quality in very large cities, the effects of recovery of the southern hemisphere ozone hole, and effects of runoff from ice melt in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Results from a whole series of future climate projections using the CESM1 are also freely available via the web from the CMIP5 archive at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Many research papers using these results have now been published, and will form part of the 5th Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is to be published late in 2013.

  2. Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svirezhev, Y.M.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

    1993-01-01

    A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

  3. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  4. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  5. Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

  6. Identification of tipping elements of the Indian Summer Monsoon using climate network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

    2015-04-01

    Spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall is a vital question for more than one billion of people inhabiting the Indian subcontinent. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall is crucial for India's economy, social welfare, and environment and large efforts are being put into predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon. For predictability of the ISM, it is crucial to identify tipping elements - regions over the Indian subcontinent which play a key role in the spatial organization of the Indian monsoon system. Here, we use climate network approach for identification of such tipping elements of the ISM. First, we build climate networks of the extreme rainfall, surface air temperature and pressure over the Indian subcontinent for pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We construct network of extreme rainfall event using observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). For the network of surface air temperature and pressure fields, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Second, we filter out data by coarse-graining the network through network measures, and identify tipping regions of the ISM. Finally, we compare obtained results of the network analysis with surface wind fields and show that occurrence of the tipping elements is mostly caused by monsoonal wind circulation, migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Westerlies. We conclude that climate network approach enables to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to identify tipping regions of the ISM. Obtained tipping elements deserve a

  7. Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Middleton, Don

    2006-08-01

    The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects, we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.

  8. Dynamics of the larch taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Ningning [Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8601 (Japan); Yasunari, Tetsuzo [Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601 (Japan); Ohta, Takeshi, E-mail: zhangningning@lasg.iap.ac.cn [Study Consortium for Earth-Life Interactive Systems (SELIS) of Nagoya University, Nagoya (Japan)

    2011-04-15

    Larch taiga, also known as Siberian boreal forest, plays an important role in global and regional water-energy-carbon (WEC) cycles and in the climate system. Recent in situ observations have suggested that larch-dominated taiga and permafrost behave as a coupled eco-climate system across a broad boreal zone of Siberia. However, neither field-based observations nor modeling experiments have clarified the synthesized dynamics of this system. Here, using a new dynamic vegetation model coupled with a permafrost model, we reveal the processes of interaction between the taiga and permafrost. The model demonstrates that under the present climate conditions in eastern Siberia, larch trees maintain permafrost by controlling the seasonal thawing of permafrost, which in turn maintains the taiga by providing sufficient water to the larch trees. The experiment without permafrost processes showed that larch would decrease in biomass and be replaced by a dominance of pine and other species that suffer drier hydroclimatic conditions. In the coupled system, fire not only plays a destructive role in the forest, but also, in some cases, preserves larch domination in forests. Climate warming sensitivity experiments show that this coupled system cannot be maintained under warming of about 2 deg. C or more. Under such conditions, a forest with typical boreal tree species (dark conifer and deciduous species) would become dominant, decoupled from the permafrost processes. This study thus suggests that future global warming could drastically alter the larch-dominated taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia, with associated changes of WEC processes and feedback to climate.

  9. Dynamics of the larch taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Ningning; Yasunari, Tetsuzo; Ohta, Takeshi

    2011-01-01

    Larch taiga, also known as Siberian boreal forest, plays an important role in global and regional water-energy-carbon (WEC) cycles and in the climate system. Recent in situ observations have suggested that larch-dominated taiga and permafrost behave as a coupled eco-climate system across a broad boreal zone of Siberia. However, neither field-based observations nor modeling experiments have clarified the synthesized dynamics of this system. Here, using a new dynamic vegetation model coupled with a permafrost model, we reveal the processes of interaction between the taiga and permafrost. The model demonstrates that under the present climate conditions in eastern Siberia, larch trees maintain permafrost by controlling the seasonal thawing of permafrost, which in turn maintains the taiga by providing sufficient water to the larch trees. The experiment without permafrost processes showed that larch would decrease in biomass and be replaced by a dominance of pine and other species that suffer drier hydroclimatic conditions. In the coupled system, fire not only plays a destructive role in the forest, but also, in some cases, preserves larch domination in forests. Climate warming sensitivity experiments show that this coupled system cannot be maintained under warming of about 2 deg. C or more. Under such conditions, a forest with typical boreal tree species (dark conifer and deciduous species) would become dominant, decoupled from the permafrost processes. This study thus suggests that future global warming could drastically alter the larch-dominated taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia, with associated changes of WEC processes and feedback to climate.

  10. Inference of directed climate networks: role of instability of causality estimation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Paluš, Milan

    2013-04-01

    Climate data are increasingly analyzed by complex network analysis methods, including graph-theoretical approaches [1]. For such analysis, links between localized nodes of climate network are typically quantified by some statistical measures of dependence (connectivity) between measured variables of interest. To obtain information on the directionality of the interactions in the networks, a wide range of methods exists. These can be broadly divided into linear and nonlinear methods, with some of the latter having the theoretical advantage of being model-free, and principally a generalization of the former [2]. However, as a trade-off, this generality comes together with lower accuracy - in particular if the system was close to linear. In an overall stationary system, this may potentially lead to higher variability in the nonlinear network estimates. Therefore, with the same control of false alarms, this may lead to lower sensitivity for detection of real changes in the network structure. These problems are discussed on the example of daily SAT and SLP data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. We first reduce the dimensionality of data using PCA with VARIMAX rotation to detect several dozens of components that together explain most of the data variability. We further construct directed climate networks applying a selection of most widely used methods - variants of linear Granger causality and conditional mutual information. Finally, we assess the stability of the detected directed climate networks by computing them in sliding time windows. To understand the origin of the observed instabilities and their range, we also apply the same procedure to two types of surrogate data: either with non-stationarity in network structure removed, or imposed in a controlled way. In general, the linear methods show stable results in terms of overall similarity of directed climate networks inferred. For instance, for different decades of SAT data, the Spearman correlation of edge

  11. Impacts of climate change and variability on transportation systems and infrastructure : Gulf Coast study, phase 2 : task 2 : climate variability and change in Mobile, Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Despite increasing confidence in global climate change projections in recent years, projections of : climate effects at local scales remains scarce. Location-specific risks to transportation systems : imposed by changes in climate are not yet well kn...

  12. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system: report of breakout group 1 - climate forcings and feedbacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.; Bretherton, F.

    1995-01-01

    The assignment for Breakout Group A was to re-visit and expand upon the plenary session discussion on climate forcings and feedbacks and to develop a set of recommendations for each of the science disciplines or activities covered within this breakout category. Working guidelines for the group included identifying: (1) what has to be done; (2) why it has to be done, i.e. who is the customer? (3) the process for remedying deficiencies and, specifically, how to leverage the activities at operational centers; and (4) priorities (recognizing that it is premature to distinguish between major systems). The science ares addressed included: greenhouse gases (GHGs); radiation budget; water vapor; aerosols; clouds; precipitation; tropospheric ozone; and solar radiation. The role of climate satellites was also noted

  13. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  14. Economic analysis of hybrid power systems (PV/diesel) in different climatic zones of Tamil Nadu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suresh Kumar, U.; Manoharan, P.S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Investigation on economic feasibility of PV/diesel system in various climatic zones. • HOMER is used to solve economic feasibility analysis. • By the sensitivity analysis, the net present cost is reduced. • Optimum climatic zone in Tamil Nadu, India is recommended. - Abstract: With the increasing threat to environment and the fast depleting fossil fuel resources, hybrid power systems consisting of two or more renewable energy sources such as solar PV, wind, biomass, ocean thermal-with or without the back up of diesel generator have come to the forefront. These hybrid systems are normally integrated with battery banks for total reliability; such systems have brought about better quality of life in remote areas of developing economics. The remote areas in the state of Tamil Nadu in India possess excellent renewable energy sources. These areas fall under different climatic zones, are sparsely populated and are in the process of development. Though these areas are connected to the grid, Tamil Nadu grid is not stable; it is currently experiencing 40% short fall in generation. Thus grid power is available to these remote areas only for 10 h a day and even when available, there are voltage frequency problems. This paper analyses the economic feasibility of installing and operating hybrid systems in these areas. The areas are divided into different climatic zones and the hybrid system economy is analyzed for each climatic zone on the basis of NPC (net present cost), consumption of diesel and renewable fraction for all climate zones. The analysis indicates that the interior climatic zone – the area would be the optimum climatic zone to install HPS PV/diesel. The sensitivity analysis proves that the NPC of such a system can be reduced. It is suggested that due to high initial cost, government subsidy is necessary to adopt the system on a large scale. Such a profit will encourage development of renewable energy utilization and bring about rapid

  15. geographic information systems for assessment of climate change

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    We examined the spatial implications of climate change on areas suitable for teff, and ... Based on the current area under teff in Ethiopia, this equals an overall reduction in .... differing greenhouse gas emission scenarios, ..... Water availability .... CO2 effects, and agricultural management systems. All these contribute to ...

  16. Leveling up: enabling diverse users to locate and effectively use unfamiliar data sets through NCAR's Research Data Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, G. S.

    2016-12-01

    Research necessarily expands upon the volume and variety of data used in prior work. Increasingly, investigators look outside their primary areas of expertise for data to incorporate into their research. Locating and using the data that they need, which may be described in terminology from other fields of science or be encoded in unfamiliar data formats, present often insurmountable barriers for potential users. As a data provider of a diverse collection of over 600 atmospheric and oceanic data sets (DS) (http://rda.ucar.edu), we seek to reduce or remove those barriers. Serving a broadening and increasing user base with fixed and finite resources requires automation. Our software harvests metadata descriptors about the data from the data files themselves. Data curators/subject matter experts augment the machine-generated metadata as needed. Metadata powers our data search tools. Users may search for data in a myriad of ways ranging from free text queries to GCMD keywords to faceted searches capable of narrowing down selections by specific criteria. Users are offered customized lists of DSs fitting their criteria with links to DS main information pages that provide detailed information about each DS. Where appropriate, they link to the NCAR Climate Data Guide for expert guidance about strengths and weaknesses of that particular DS. Once users find the data sets they need, we provide modular lessons for common data tasks. The lessons may be data tool install guides, data recipes, blog posts, or short YouTube videos. Rather than overloading users with reams of information, we provide targeted lessons when the user is most receptive, e.g. when they want to use data in an unfamiliar format. We add new material when we discover common points of confusion. Each educational resource is tagged with DS ID numbers so that they are automatically linked with the relevant DSs. How can data providers leverage the work of other data providers? Can a common tagging scheme for data

  17. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  18. Challenges of coordinating global climate observations - Role of satellites in climate monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, C.

    2017-12-01

    Global observation of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land is essential for identifying climate variability and change, and for understanding their causes. Observation also provides data that are fundamental for evaluating, refining and initializing the models that predict how the climate system will vary over the months and seasons ahead, and that project how climate will change in the longer term under different assumptions concerning greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences. Long-term observational records have enabled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to deliver the message that warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. As the Earth's climate enters a new era, in which it is forced by human activities, as well as natural processes, it is critically important to sustain an observing system capable of detecting and documenting global climate variability and change over long periods of time. High-quality climate observations are required to assess the present state of the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere and land and place them in context with the past. The global observing system for climate is not a single, centrally managed observing system. Rather, it is a composite "system of systems" comprising a set of climate-relevant observing, data-management, product-generation and data-distribution systems. Data from satellites underpin many of the Essential Climate Variables(ECVs), and their historic and contemporary archives are a key part of the global climate observing system. In general, the ECVs will be provided in the form of climate data records that are created by processing and archiving time series of satellite and in situ measurements. Early satellite data records are very valuable because they provide unique observations in many regions which were not otherwise observed during the 1970s and which can be assimilated in atmospheric reanalyses and so extend the satellite climate data records back in time.

  19. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), for 1979 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was initially completed for the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and...

  20. Design Optimization of a Small-Scale Polygeneration Energy System in Different Climate Zones in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Ghaem Sigarchian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Design and performance of polygeneration energy systems are highly influenced by several variables, including the climate zone, which can affect the load profile as well as the availability of renewable energy sources. To investigate the effects, in this study, the design of a polygeneration system for identical residential buildings that are located in three different climate zones in Iran has been investigated. To perform the study, a model has previously developed by the author is used. The performance of the polygeneration system in terms of energy, economy and environment were compared to each other. The results show significant energetic and environmental benefits of the implementation of polygeneration systems in Iran, especially in the building that is located in a hot climate, with a high cooling demand and a low heating demand. Optimal polygeneration system for an identical building has achieved a 27% carbon dioxide emission reduction in the cold climate, while this value is around 41% in the hot climate. However, when considering the price of electricity and gas in the current energy market in Iran, none of the systems are feasible and financial support mechanisms or other incentives are required to promote the application of decentralized polygeneration energy systems.

  1. The physics and dynamics of the climate system simulation of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, J.F.B.

    1991-01-01

    The use of climate models is described, using examples related to: the greenhouse effect, the principal absorbers, past, present and future, climate feedbacks in CO2 experiments, equilibrium climate change due to increased CO2, modelling the transient response to increases in trace gases, uncertainties in the simulation and detection of the climatic effect of increased trace gas, simulations for 9000 years before present

  2. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project: Using a systems approach to understand carbon and the Earth's climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverberg, S. K.; Ollinger, S. V.; Martin, M. E.; Gengarelly, L. M.; Schloss, A. L.; Bourgeault, J. L.; Randolph, G.; Albrechtova, J.

    2009-12-01

    National Science Content Standards identify systems as an important unifying concept across the K-12 curriculum. While this standard exists, there is a recognized gap in the ability of students to use a systems thinking approach in their learning. In a similar vein, both popular media as well as some educational curricula move quickly through climate topics to carbon footprint analyses without ever addressing the nature of carbon or the carbon cycle. If students do not gain a concrete understanding of carbon’s role in climate and energy they will not be able to successfully tackle global problems and develop innovative solutions. By participating in the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project, students learn to use a systems thinking approach, while at the same time, gaining a foundation in the carbon cycle and it's relation to climate and energy. Here we present the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project and materials, which incorporate a diverse set of activities geared toward upper middle and high school students with a variety of learning styles. A global carbon cycle adventure story and game let students see the carbon cycle as a complete system, while introducing them to systems thinking concepts including reservoirs, fluxes and equilibrium. Classroom photosynthesis experiments and field measurements of schoolyard vegetation brings the global view to the local level. And the use of computer models at varying levels of complexity (effects on photosynthesis, biomass and carbon storage in global biomes, global carbon cycle) not only reinforces systems concepts and carbon content, but also introduces students to an important scientific tool necessary for understanding climate change.

  3. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

  5. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leclère, D; Havlík, P; Mosnier, A; Walsh, B; Valin, H; Khabarov, N; Obersteiner, M; Fuss, S; Schmid, E; Herrero, M

    2014-01-01

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis. (letter)

  6. Climatic effects during passage of the solar system through interstellar clouds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talbot, R.J. Jr.; Butler, D.M.; Newman, M.J.

    1976-01-01

    It is thought likely that the solar system passes through regions where there are a large number of dense interstellar clouds. When this occurs several processes may cause significant changes in the climate of the Earth and other planets. Matters here discussed include the influences of compression of the solar wind cavity, accretion of matter by the Sun, and particulate input into the Earth's atmosphere. Gravitational energy released by the accretion of interstellar material by the Sun may enhance the solar luminosity, and considerations of terrestrial heat balance suggest that luminosity enhancements of 1% or more will produce significant variations of climate. Observational evidence suggests that there is some mechanism producing a relationship between solar wind flow and climate. One proposed mechanism is that contemporary solar wind modulation of galactic cosmic rays influences climate, and the fact that the Earth would be outside the solar wind cavity for all or part of the year may have an effect on terrestrial climate. Relatively small variations of solar UV radiation input may have perceptible influences on climate, and if a 1% variation in radiation input to the stratosphere has a significant effect then accretion may have a large impact on terrestrial conditions, even though the change in the total heat balance is negligible.With regard to dust input into the Earth's atmosphere it is estimated that during the lifetime of the solar system the mass of dust grains accreted by the Earth should have been about 10 16 to 10 18 g; the matter of evidence for their presence is discussed. It is concluded that the processes proposed have very complex implications for global weather patterns; and at present it is not possible to evaluate which, if any, will unquestionably affect the Earth's climate. (U.K.)

  7. Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

  8. Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortier, M. O. P.

    2017-12-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

  9. Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

  10. Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gulev, S.K.; Zolina, O.; Grigoriev, S. [AN SSSR, Moscow (USSR). Inst. Okeanologii

    2001-07-01

    The winter climatology of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity was derived from 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period from 1958 to 1999, using software which provides improved accuracy in cyclone identification in comparison to numerical tracking schemes. Cyclone characteristics over the Kuroshio and Gulfstream are very different to those over continental North America and the Arctic. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere cyclones shows secular and decadal-scale changes in cyclone frequency, intensity, lifetime and deepening rates. The western Pacific and Atlantic are characterized by an increase in cyclone intensity and deepening during the 42-year period, although the eastern Pacific and continental North America demonstrate opposite tendencies in most cyclone characteristics. There is an increase of the number of cyclones in the Arctic and in the western Pacific and a downward tendency over the Gulf Stream and subpolar Pacific. Decadal scale variability in cyclone activity over the Atlantic and Pacific exhibits south-north dipole-like patterns. Atlantic and Pacific cyclone activity associated with the NAO and PNA is analyzed. Atlantic cyclone frequency demonstrates a high correlation with NAO and reflects the NAO shift in the mid 1970s, associated with considerable changes in European storm tracks. The PNA is largely linked to the eastern Pacific cyclone frequencies, and controls cyclone activity over the Gulf region and the North American coast during the last two decades. Assessment of the accuracy of the results and comparison with those derived using numerical algorithms, shows that biases inherent in numerical procedures are not negligible. (orig.)

  11. Impact of climate change on operations and planning of Hydro-Quebec's generation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raymond, M.P.; Houle, B.; Robert, S.

    2008-01-01

    Studies that are underway at OURANOS indicate that some of the probable climate change scenarios in the coming years will have an effect on Quebec's watersheds hydrology and on temperatures. For Hydro-Quebec, who draws more than 95% of its generation from hydraulic resources and whose electricity loads depend pretty much on temperatures, such climate changes will definitely have a significant impact on many aspects of the planning and operations of its system. Our presentation will be divided into three parts. First, to bridge the gap between climate change scientists and water managers, we will present a list of the types of parameters needed from the scientists in order for the water managers to assess the impacts of climate changes on a hydroelectric system such as Hydro-Quebec's. These parameters will include changes in annual and seasonal distribution and variability of natural inflows and, most importantly, the timing of the changes in the coming years. The second part will focus on the types of adaptive decisions and strategies that will have to be taken ahead of time in order to implement the changes on a hydroelectric generation system such as Hydro-Quebec's. They will cover different areas such as generation planning, operations planning and optimization, refurbishment and replacement of infrastructures, dam safety, flood control and protection, maintenance planning and reliability. Finally, we will present more specific results of the impact of some climate change scenarios on Hydro-Quebec's overall generation system, showing differences between regions, and a case study on one of its river systems. (author)

  12. Cropping Systems and Climate Change in Humid Subtropical Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ixchel M. Hernandez-Ochoa

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In the future, climate change will challenge food security by threatening crop production. Humid subtropical regions play an important role in global food security, with crop rotations often including wheat (winter crop and soybean and maize (summer crops. Over the last 30 years, the humid subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere have experienced a stronger warming trend than in the Southern Hemisphere, and the trend is projected to continue throughout the mid- and end of century. Past rainfall trends range, from increases up to 4% per decade in Southeast China to −3% decadal decline in East Australia; a similar trend is projected in the future. Climate change impact studies suggest that by the middle and end of the century, wheat yields may not change, or they will increase up to 17%. Soybean yields will increase between 3% and 41%, while maize yields will increase by 30% or decline by −40%. These wide-ranging climate change impacts are partly due to the region-specific projections, but also due to different global climate models, climate change scenarios, single-model uncertainties, and cropping system assumptions, making it difficult to make conclusions from these impact studies and develop adaptation strategies. Additionally, most of the crop models used in these studies do not include major common stresses in this environment, such as heat, frost, excess water, pests, and diseases. Standard protocols and impact assessments across the humid subtropical regions are needed to understand climate change impacts and prepare for adaptation strategies.

  13. The simulation of medicanes in a high-resolution regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cavicchia, Leone [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany); Ca' Foscari University, Venice (Italy); Storch, Hans von [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany); University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, Hamburg (Germany)

    2012-11-15

    Medicanes, strong mesoscale cyclones with tropical-like features, develop occasionally over the Mediterranean Sea. Due to the scarcity of observations over sea and the coarse resolution of the long-term reanalysis datasets, it is difficult to study systematically the multidecadal statistics of sub-synoptic medicanes. Our goal is to assess the long-term variability and trends of medicanes, obtaining a long-term climatology through dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In this paper, we examine the robustness of this method and investigate the value added for the study of medicanes. To do so, we performed several climate mode simulations with a high resolution regional atmospheric model (CCLM) for a number of test cases described in the literature. We find that the medicanes are formed in the simulations, with deeper pressures and stronger winds than in the driving global NCEP reanalysis. The tracks are adequately reproduced. We conclude that our methodology is suitable for constructing multi-decadal statistics and scenarios of current and possible future medicane activities. (orig.)

  14. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins....... Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate...... change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large...

  15. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  16. CMIP5 Simulaciones de clima: implicaciones para la hidrología/CMIP5 Climate Simulations: Implications for Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence Buja

    Full Text Available En este artículo se señala a través de las simulaciones climáticas del centro nacional de la investigación atmosférica (NCAR que, para finales del s. XXI, habrá un incremento de la temperatura del 3.3°C y en algunas áreas hasta de 7-8°C. Este cambio repercutirá sobre la producción agrícola y la mortalidad de los seres humanos. El nuevo enfoque que integra las ciencias sociales con las ciencias físicas busca manejar el problema de adaptación al cambio climático y, asimismo, influir en la toma de decisiones para afrontar la vulnerabilidad y los retos que impone la adaptación al cambio climático.This article points out through climate simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCARthat global warming will be increased by the end of the 21st century 3.3°C and in some areas as 7-8°C. Thischange will have an impact on agricultural production and human mortality. A new emphasis on the integrationof social sciences with physical sciences will be fundamental to address the problem of climate adaptation;likewise, it will be important for decision-making to overcome the vulnerability and the challenges thatbrings a climate change.

  17. Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

    2010-05-01

    Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to

  18. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario

    2015-01-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO 2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. (letter)

  19. Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2016-12-01

    There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation

  20. Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

    2008-01-01

    Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

  1. Toward an ultra-high resolution community climate system model for the BlueGene platform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, John M; Jacob, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Tony; Loy, Raymond

    2007-01-01

    Global climate models need to simulate several small, regional-scale processes which affect the global circulation in order to accurately simulate the climate. This is particularly important in the ocean where small scale features such as oceanic eddies are currently represented with adhoc parameterizations. There is also a need for higher resolution to provide climate predictions at small, regional scales. New high-performance computing platforms such as the IBM BlueGene can provide the necessary computational power to perform ultra-high resolution climate model integrations. We have begun to investigate the scaling of the individual components of the Community Climate System Model to prepare it for integrations on BlueGene and similar platforms. Our investigations show that it is possible to successfully utilize O(32K) processors. We describe the scalability of five models: the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Community Land Model (CLM), and the new CCSM sequential coupler (CPL7) which are components of the next generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM); as well as the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) which is a dynamical core currently being evaluated within the Community Atmospheric Model. For our studies we concentrate on 1/10 0 resolution for CICE, POP, and CLM models and 1/4 0 resolution for HOMME. The ability to simulate high resolutions on the massively parallel petascale systems that will dominate high-performance computing for the foreseeable future is essential to the advancement of climate science

  2. Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

    2008-12-01

    The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

  3. Energy analysis of alternative CO2 refrigeration system configurations for retail food applications in moderate and warm climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsamos, K.M.; Ge, Y.T.; Santosa, IDewa; Tassou, S.A.; Bianchi, G.; Mylona, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Alternative CO 2 refrigeration technologies are compared for temperate and warm climates. • The CO 2 booster system with parallel compression was found to be the most energy efficient system. • Parallel compression can offer efficiency advantages of 3.6% in moderate and 5.0% in warm climates. • Parallel compression in booster CO 2 systems is economically attractive in warm climates. - Abstract: Refrigeration systems are crucial in retail food stores to ensure appropriate merchandising of food products. This paper compares four different CO 2 refrigeration system configurations in terms of cooling performance, environmental impact, power consumption and annual running costs. The systems studied were the conventional booster refrigeration system with gas bypass (reference system), the all CO 2 cascade system with gas bypass, a booster system with a gas bypass compressor, and integrated cascade all CO 2 system with gas bypass compressor. The weather conditions of London, UK, and Athens, Greece, were used for the modelling of energy consumption and environmental impacts to represent moderate and warm climatic conditions respectively. The control strategies for the refrigeration systems were derived from experimental tests in the laboratory on a conventional booster refrigeration system. The results from the analysis showed that the CO 2 booster system with gas bypass compressor can provide best performance with 5.0% energy savings for the warm climate and 3.65% for the moderate climate, followed by the integrated cascade all CO 2 system with gas bypass compressor, with 3.6% and 2.1% savings over the reference system for the warm and moderate climates respectively.

  4. New climate-proof cropping systems in dry areas of the Mediterranean region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Sven-Erik

    2014-01-01

    severe consequences of climate changes, under influence of multiple abiotic stresses. These stresses are becoming even more pronounced under changing climate, resulting in drier conditions, increasing temperatures and greater variability, causing desertification. This topic has been addressed in the EU...... FP7 project entitled 'Sustainable water use securing food production in dry areas of the Mediterranean region (SWUP-MED)' working on climate-proof cropping systems in Morocco, Syria, Turkey and southern Europe, collaborating with UK, Denmark and Australia. The results are valid for other parts...

  5. Geoinformation web-system for processing and visualization of large archives of geo-referenced data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.; Shulgina, T. M.

    2010-12-01

    Developed working model of information-computational system aimed at scientific research in area of climate change is presented. The system will allow processing and analysis of large archives of geophysical data obtained both from observations and modeling. Accumulated experience of developing information-computational web-systems providing computational processing and visualization of large archives of geo-referenced data was used during the implementation (Gordov et al, 2007; Okladnikov et al, 2008; Titov et al, 2009). Functional capabilities of the system comprise a set of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, processing and visualization of data. At present five archives of data are available for processing: 1st and 2nd editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, and NOAA-CIRES XX Century Global Reanalysis Version I. To provide data processing functionality a computational modular kernel and class library providing data access for computational modules were developed. Currently a set of computational modules for climate change indices approved by WMO is available. Also a special module providing visualization of results and writing to Encapsulated Postscript, GeoTIFF and ESRI shape files was developed. As a technological basis for representation of cartographical information in Internet the GeoServer software conforming to OpenGIS standards is used. Integration of GIS-functionality with web-portal software to provide a basis for web-portal’s development as a part of geoinformation web-system is performed. Such geoinformation web-system is a next step in development of applied information-telecommunication systems offering to specialists from various scientific fields unique opportunities of performing reliable analysis of heterogeneous geophysical data using approved computational algorithms. It will allow a wide range of researchers to work with geophysical data without specific programming

  6. Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiga, B. T.; Urban, N. M.

    2016-12-01

    Earth system models (ESM) are the most comprehensive tools we have to study climate change and develop climate projections. However, the computational infrastructure required and the cost incurred in running such ESMs precludes direct use of such models in conjunction with a wide variety of tools that can further our understanding of climate. Here we are referring to tools that range from dynamical systems tools that give insight into underlying flow structure and topology to tools that come from various applied mathematical and statistical techniques and are central to quantifying stability, sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability to machine learning tools that are now being rapidly developed or improved. Our approach to facilitate the use of such models is to analyze output of ESM experiments (cf. CMIP) using a range of simpler models that consider integral balances of important quantities such as mass and/or energy in a Bayesian framework.We highlight the use of this approach in the context of the uptake of heat by the world oceans in the ongoing global warming. Indeed, since in excess of 90% of the anomalous radiative forcing due greenhouse gas emissions is sequestered in the world oceans, the nature of ocean heat uptake crucially determines the surface warming that is realized (cf. climate sensitivity). Nevertheless, ESMs themselves are never run long enough to directly assess climate sensitivity. So, we consider a range of models based on integral balances--balances that have to be realized in all first-principles based models of the climate system including the most detailed state-of-the art climate simulations. The models range from simple models of energy balance to those that consider dynamically important ocean processes such as the conveyor-belt circulation (Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and eddy mixing. Results from Bayesian analysis of such models using

  7. New watershed-based climate forecast products for hydrologists and water managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, S. A.; Wood, A.; Rajagopalan, B.; Lehner, F.; Peng, P.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Werner, K.

    2017-12-01

    Operational sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate predictions have advanced in skill in recent years but are yet to be broadly utilized by stakeholders in the water management sector. While some of the challenges that relate to fundamental predictability are difficult or impossible to surmount, other hurdles related to forecast product formulation, translation, relevance, and accessibility can be directly addressed. These include products being misaligned with users' space-time needs, products disseminated in formats users cannot easily process, and products based on raw model outputs that are biased relative to user climatologies. In each of these areas, more can be done to bridge the gap by enhancing the usability, quality, and relevance of water-oriented predictions. In addition, water stakeholder impacts can benefit from short-range extremes predictions (such as 2-3 day storms or 1-week heat waves) at S2S time-scales, for which few products exist. We present interim results of a Research to Operations (R2O) effort sponsored by the NOAA MAPP Climate Testbed to (1) formulate climate prediction products so as to reduce hurdles to in water stakeholder adoption, and to (2) explore opportunities for extremes prediction at S2S time scales. The project is currently using CFSv2 and National Multi-­Model Ensemble (NMME) reforecasts and forecasts to develop real-time watershed-based climate forecast products, and to train post-processing approaches to enhance the skill and reliability of raw real-time S2S forecasts. Prototype S2S climate data products (forecasts and associated skill analyses) are now being operationally staged at NCAR on a public website to facilitate further product development through interactions with water managers. Initial demonstration products include CFSv2-based bi-weekly climate forecasts (weeks 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4) for sub-regional scale hydrologic units, and NMME-based monthly and seasonal prediction products. Raw model mean skill at these time

  8. Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pratik

    Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System PRATIK KUMAR SINGH1 1BALDEVRAM MIRDHA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,JAIPUR (RAJASTHAN) ,INDIA Water is everywhere on Earth and is the only known substance that can naturally exist as a gas, liquid, and solid within the relatively small range of air temperatures and pressures found at the Earth's surface.Changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate and land use drivers are expected to play a central role in governing a vast range of environmental impacts.Earth's climate will undergo changes in response to natural variability, including solar variability, and to increasing concentrations of green house gases and aerosols.Further more, agreement is widespread that these changes may profoundly affect atmospheric water vapor concentrations, clouds and precipitation patterns.As we know that ,a warmer climate, directly leading to increased evaporation, may well accelerate the hydrological cycle, resulting in an increase in the amount of moisture circulating through the atmosphere.The Changing Water Cycle programmer will develop an integrated, quantitative understanding of the changes taking place in the global water cycle, involving all components of the earth system, improving predictions for the next few decades of regional precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, hydrological storage and fluxes.The hydrological cycle involves evaporation, transpiration, condensation, precipitation, and runoff. NASA's Aqua satellite will monitor many aspects of the role of water in the Earth's systems, and will do so at spatial and temporal scales appropriate to foster a more detailed understanding of each of the processes that contribute to the hydrological cycle. These data and the analyses of them will nurture the development and refinement of hydrological process models and a corresponding improvement in regional and global climate models, with a direct anticipated benefit of more accurate weather and

  9. Examining Challenges Related to the Production of Actionable Climate Knowledge for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Focus on Climate Knowledge System Producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, K.; Preston, B. L.; Tenggren, S.; Klein, R.; Gerger-Swartling, Å.

    2017-12-01

    Many challenges to adaptation decision-making and action have been identified across peer-reviewed and gray literature. These challenges have primarily focused on the use of climate knowledge for adaptation decision-making, the process of adaptation decision-making, and the needs of the decision-maker. Studies on climate change knowledge systems often discuss the imperative role of climate knowledge producers in adaptation decision-making processes and stress the need for producers to engage in knowledge co-production activities and to more effectively meet decision-maker needs. While the influence of climate knowledge producers on the co-production of science for adaptation decision-making is well-recognized, hardly any research has taken a direct approach to analyzing the challenges that climate knowledge producers face when undertaking science co-production. Those challenges can influence the process of knowledge production and may hinder the creation, utilization, and dissemination of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making. This study involves semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations to analyze, identify, and contextualize the challenges that climate knowledge producers in Sweden face as they endeavor to create effective climate knowledge systems for multiple contexts, scales, and levels across the European Union. Preliminary findings identify complex challenges related to education, training, and support; motivation, willingness, and culture; varying levels of prioritization; professional roles and responsibilities; the type and amount of resources available; and professional incentive structures. These challenges exist at varying scales and levels across individuals, organizations, networks, institutions, and disciplines. This study suggests that the creation of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making is not supported across scales and levels in the climate knowledge production landscape. Additionally

  10. Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

    2014-05-01

    Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A

  11. The physics and dynamics of the climate system simulation of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, J.F.B.

    1991-01-01

    The increases in atmospheric Greenhouse gases since 1860 have a radiative effect equivalent to a 40% increase in carbon dioxide concentrations, and by the middle of the next century, are expected to be equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration. Simulations with detailed climate models indicate that this would produce a warming of 2 to 5 K in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium, with accompanying changes in precipitation, sea level and other parameters. The observed increase of 0.5 K since 1900 is consistent with the lower range of the estimated potential increase, allowing for a possible slowing of the global mean warming due to the ocean's large thermal inertia. There is an ever pressing need to predict the likely changes in climate due to increases in trace gases and detailed 3-dimensional models of climate are the most promising method of providing the detailed information required for climatic impact assessment. This paper is arranged as follows: 1. Introduction, why model climate. 2. The Greenhouse effect. 3. The principal gases, past, present and future. 4. Climate feedbacks in CO 2 experiments. 5. Equilibrium climate change due to increased CO 2 . 6. Modelling the transient response to increases in trace gases. 7. Uncertainties in the simulation and detection of the climatic effect of increased trace gases. 8. Appeals to the past; simulations for 9000 years before present (9 K bp). 13 figs., 3 tabs., 33 refs

  12. Developing the evidence base for mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gersonius, B; Nasruddin, F; Ashley, R; Jeuken, A; Pathirana, A; Zevenbergen, C

    2012-12-15

    In a context of high uncertainty about hydro-climatic variables, the development of updated methods for climate impact and adaptation assessment is as important, if not more important than the provision of improved climate change data. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid method to facilitate mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change: i.e., the Mainstreaming method. The Mainstreaming method starts with an analysis of adaptation tipping points (ATPs), which is effect-based. These are points of reference where the magnitude of climate change is such that acceptable technical, environmental, societal or economic standards may be compromised. It extends the ATP analysis to include aspects from a bottom-up approach. The extension concerns the analysis of adaptation opportunities in the stormwater system. The results from both analyses are then used in combination to identify and exploit Adaptation Mainstreaming Moments (AMMs). Use of this method will enhance the understanding of the adaptive potential of stormwater systems. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to the management of flood risk for an urban stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). The main finding of this case study is that the application of the Mainstreaming method helps to increase the no-/low-regret character of adaptation for several reasons: it focuses the attention on the most urgent effects of climate change; it is expected to lead to potential cost reductions, since adaptation options can be integrated into infrastructure and building design at an early stage instead of being applied separately; it will lead to the development of area-specific responses, which could not have been developed on a higher scale level; it makes it possible to take account of local values and sensibilities, which contributes to increased public and political support for the adaptive strategies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A Reed

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

  14. Yesterday's dinner, tomorrow's weather, today's news? US newspaper coverage of food system contributions to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neff, Roni A; Chan, Iris L; Smith, Katherine Clegg

    2009-07-01

    There is strong evidence that what we eat and how it is produced affects climate change. The present paper examines coverage of food system contributions to climate change in top US newspapers. Using a sample of sixteen leading US newspapers from September 2005 to January 2008, two coders identified 'food and climate change' and 'climate change' articles based on specified criteria. Analyses examined variation across time and newspaper, the level of content relevant to food systems' contributions to climate change, and how such content was framed. There were 4582 'climate change' articles in these newspapers during this period. Of these, 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture contributions, with 0.4% coded as substantially focused on the issue and 0.5% mentioning food animal contributions. The level of content on food contributions to climate change increased across time. Articles initially addressed the issue primarily in individual terms, expanding to address business and government responsibility more in later articles. US newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change during the study period increased, but still did not reflect the increasingly solid evidence of the importance of these effects. Increased coverage may lead to responses by individuals, industry and government. Based on co-benefits with nutritional public health messages and climate change's food security threats, the public health nutrition community has an important role to play in elaborating and disseminating information about food and climate change for the US media.

  15. Identifying User Experience Goals for Interactive Climate Management Business Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Torkil; Barlow, Stephanie

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents findings from interpretative phenomenological interviews about the user experience of interactive climate management with six growers and crop consultants. The focus of user experience research has been on quantitative studies of consumers’ initial usage experiences, for example...... of mobile phones or e-commerce websites. In contrast, this empirical paper provides an example of how to capture user experience in work contexts and with a qualitative methodology. We present a model of the essence of the emotional user experience of interactive climate management. Then we suggest...... of interactive climate management in this and other domains. The overall aim with the paper is to take the concept of user experience into the IS community and to describe and understand what are individual workers’ positive emotional use experiences when interacting with workplace systems....

  16. he Impact of Primary Marine Aerosol on Atmospheric Chemistry, Radiation and Climate: A CCSM Model Development Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keene, William C. [University of Virginia; Long, Michael S. [University of Virginia

    2013-05-20

    This project examined the potential large-scale influence of marine aerosol cycling on atmospheric chemistry, physics and radiative transfer. Measurements indicate that the size-dependent generation of marine aerosols by wind waves at the ocean surface and the subsequent production and cycling of halogen-radicals are important but poorly constrained processes that influence climate regionally and globally. A reliable capacity to examine the role of marine aerosol in the global-scale atmospheric system requires that the important size-resolved chemical processes be treated explicitly. But the treatment of multiphase chemistry across the breadth of chemical scenarios encountered throughout the atmosphere is sensitive to the initial conditions and the precision of the solution method. This study examined this sensitivity, constrained it using high-resolution laboratory and field measurements, and deployed it in a coupled chemical-microphysical 3-D atmosphere model. First, laboratory measurements of fresh, unreacted marine aerosol were used to formulate a sea-state based marine aerosol source parameterization that captured the initial organic, inorganic, and physical conditions of the aerosol population. Second, a multiphase chemical mechanism, solved using the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry's MECCA (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere) system, was benchmarked across a broad set of observed chemical and physical conditions in the marine atmosphere. Using these results, the mechanism was systematically reduced to maximize computational speed. Finally, the mechanism was coupled to the 3-mode modal aerosol version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM v3.6.33). Decadal-scale simulations with CAM v.3.6.33, were run both with and without reactive-halogen chemistry and with and without explicit treatment of particulate organic carbon in the marine aerosol source function. Simulated results were interpreted (1) to evaluate influences

  17. Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their

  18. Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem. Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arvai, J. [Environmental Science and Policy Program, and Dept. of CARRS, Michigan State University, 305 Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Bridge, G. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma (United States); Dolsak, N. [University of Washington, Bothell (United States); Franzese, R. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Koontz, T.; Luginbuhl, A.; Sohngen, B.; Thompson, A. [Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (United States); Robbins, P. [University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona (United States); Richards, K. [Indiana University, Terre Haute, Indiana (United States); Smith Korfmacher, K. [University of Rochester, Rochester (United States); Tansey, J. [Oxford University, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2006-09-15

    To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor.

  19. Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem. Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvai, J.; Bridge, G.; Dolsak, N.; Franzese, R.; Koontz, T.; Luginbuhl, A.; Sohngen, B.; Thompson, A.; Robbins, P.; Richards, K.; Smith Korfmacher, K.; Tansey, J.

    2006-01-01

    To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor

  20. Solar System Chaos and its climatic and biogeochemical consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, M.; Tada, R.; Ozaki, K.; Olsen, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    Insolation changes caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters are the main driver of climatic variations, whose pace has been used for astronomically-calibrated geologic time scales of high accuracy to understand Earth system dynamics. However, the astrophysical models beyond several tens of million years ago have large uncertainty due to chaotic behavior of the Solar System, and its impact on amplitude modulation of multi-Myr-scale orbital variations and consequent climate changes has become the subject of debate. Here we show the geologic constraints on the past chaotic behavior of orbital cycles from early Mesozoic monsoon-related records; the 30-Myr-long lake level records of the lacustrine sequence in Newark-Hartford basins (North America) and 70-Myr-long biogenic silica (BSi) burial flux record of pelagic deep-sea chert sequence in Inuyama area (Japan). BSi burial flux of chert could be considered as proportional to the dissolved Si (DSi) input from chemical weathering on timescales longer than the residence time of DSi ( 100 kyr), because chert could represent a major sink for oceanic dissolved silica (Ikeda et al., 2017).These geologic records show multi-Myr cycles with similar frequency modulations of eccentricity solution of astronomical model La2010d (Laskar et al., 2011) compared with other astronomical solutions, but not exactly same. Our geologic records provide convincing evidence for the past chaotic dynamical behaviour of the Solar System and new and challenging additional constraints for astrophysical models. In addition, we find that ˜10 Myr cycle detected in monsoon proxies and their amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr cycle may be related to the amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr eccentricity cycle through non-linear process(es) of Earth system dynamics, suggesting possible impact of the chaotic behavior of Solar planets on climate change. Further impact of multi-Myr orbital cycles on global biogeochemical cycles will be discussed.

  1. Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamics in the Climate System: Past and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J.; Whitlock, C.; Huntley, B.

    2002-12-01

    The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that climate change as large as is likely to occur in the next two centuries will drive change in the terrestrial biosphere that is both large and difficult to predict, or plan for. Many species, communities and ecosystems could experience rates of climate change, and "destination climates" that are unprecedented in their time on earth. The paleorecord also makes it clear that a wide range of possible climate system behavior, such as decades-long droughts, increases in large storm and flood frequency, and rapid sea level rise, all occurred repeatedly in the past, and for poorly understood reasons. These types of events, if they were to reoccur in the future, could have especially devastating impacts on biodiversity, both because their timing and spatial extent cannot be anticipated, and because the biota's natural defenses have been compromised by land-use, reductions in genetic flexibility, pollution, excess water utilization, invasive species, and other human influences. Vegetation disturbance (e.g., by disease, pests and fire) will undoubtedly be exacerbated by climate change (stress), but could also speed the rate at which terrestrial biosphere change takes place in the future. The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that major scientific challenges include an improved ability to model regional biospheric change, both past and future. This in turn will be a prerequisite to obtaining realistic estimates of future biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks, and thus to obtaining better assessments of future climate change. These steps will help generate the improved understanding of climate variability that is needed to manage global biodiversity. However, the most troubling message from the paleoenvironmental record is that unchecked anthropogenic climate change could make the Earth's 6th major mass extinction unavoidable.

  2. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  3. Water vapor variability and comparisons in the subtropical Pacific from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Driftsonde, Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), and reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junhong; Zhang, Liangying; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Bradford, Mark; Cole, Harold; Fox, Jack; Hock, Terry; Lauritsen, Dean; Loehrer, Scot; Martin, Charlie; Vanandel, Joseph; Weng, Chun-Hsiung; Young, Kathryn

    2010-11-01

    During the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC), from 1 August to 30 September 2008, ˜1900 high-quality, high vertical resolution soundings were collected over the Pacific Ocean. These include dropsondes deployed from four aircrafts and zero-pressure balloons in the stratosphere (NCAR's Driftsonde system). The water vapor probability distribution and spatial variability in the northern subtropical Pacific (14°-20°N, 140°E-155°W) are studied using Driftsonde and COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) data and four global reanalysis products. Driftsonde data analysis shows distinct differences of relative humidity (RH) distributions in the free troposphere between the Eastern and Western Pacific (EP and WP, defined as east and west of 180°, respectively), very dry with a single peak of ˜1% RH in the EP and bi-modal distributions in the WP with one peak near ice saturation and one varying with altitude. The frequent occurrences of extreme dry air are found in the driftsonde data with 59% and 19% of RHs less than or equal to 5% and at 1% at 500 hPa in the EP, respectively. RH with respect to ice in the free troposphere exhibits considerable longitudinal variations, very low (problems in Driftsonde, two National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses and COSMIC data. The moist layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP shown in the ERA-Interim, JRA and COSMIC is missing in Driftsonde data. Major problems are found in the RH means and variability over the study region for both NCEP reanalyses. Although the higher-moisture layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP in the COSMIC data agrees well with the ERA-Interim and JRA, it is primarily attributed to the first guess of the 1-Dimensional (1D) variational analysis used in the COSMIC retrieval rather than the refractivity measurements. The limited soundings (total 268) of Driftsonde data are capable of

  4. Toward an ultra-high resolution community climate system model for the BlueGene platform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, John M [Computer Science Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Jacob, Robert [Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States); Vertenstein, Mariana [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Craig, Tony [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Loy, Raymond [Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States)

    2007-07-15

    Global climate models need to simulate several small, regional-scale processes which affect the global circulation in order to accurately simulate the climate. This is particularly important in the ocean where small scale features such as oceanic eddies are currently represented with adhoc parameterizations. There is also a need for higher resolution to provide climate predictions at small, regional scales. New high-performance computing platforms such as the IBM BlueGene can provide the necessary computational power to perform ultra-high resolution climate model integrations. We have begun to investigate the scaling of the individual components of the Community Climate System Model to prepare it for integrations on BlueGene and similar platforms. Our investigations show that it is possible to successfully utilize O(32K) processors. We describe the scalability of five models: the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Community Land Model (CLM), and the new CCSM sequential coupler (CPL7) which are components of the next generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM); as well as the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) which is a dynamical core currently being evaluated within the Community Atmospheric Model. For our studies we concentrate on 1/10{sup 0} resolution for CICE, POP, and CLM models and 1/4{sup 0} resolution for HOMME. The ability to simulate high resolutions on the massively parallel petascale systems that will dominate high-performance computing for the foreseeable future is essential to the advancement of climate science.

  5. Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2018-02-02

    Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. Effects of primitive photosynthesis on Earth's early climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozaki, Kazumi; Tajika, Eiichi; Hong, Peng K.; Nakagawa, Yusuke; Reinhard, Christopher T.

    2018-01-01

    The evolution of different forms of photosynthetic life has profoundly altered the activity level of the biosphere, radically reshaping the composition of Earth's oceans and atmosphere over time. However, the mechanistic impacts of a primitive photosynthetic biosphere on Earth's early atmospheric chemistry and climate are poorly understood. Here, we use a global redox balance model to explore the biogeochemical and climatological effects of different forms of primitive photosynthesis. We find that a hybrid ecosystem of H2-based and Fe2+-based anoxygenic photoautotrophs—organisms that perform photosynthesis without producing oxygen—gives rise to a strong nonlinear amplification of Earth's methane (CH4) cycle, and would thus have represented a critical component of Earth's early climate system before the advent of oxygenic photosynthesis. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we find that a hybrid photosynthetic biosphere widens the range of geochemical conditions that allow for warm climate states well beyond either of these metabolic processes acting in isolation. Our results imply that the Earth's early climate was governed by a novel and poorly explored set of regulatory feedbacks linking the anoxic biosphere and the coupled H, C and Fe cycles. We suggest that similar processes should be considered when assessing the potential for sustained habitability on Earth-like planets with reducing atmospheres.

  7. Global Climatic Indices Influence on Rainfall Spatiotemporal Distribution : A Case Study from Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkadiri, R.; Zemzami, M.; Phillips, J.

    2017-12-01

    The climate of Morocco is affected by the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean the Sahara and the Atlas mountains, creating a highly variable spatial and temporal distribution. In this study, we aim to decompose the rainfall in Morocco into global and local signals and understand the contribution of the climatic indices (CIs) on rainfall. These analyses will contribute in understanding the Moroccan climate that is typical of other Mediterranean and North African climatic zones. In addition, it will contribute in a long-term prediction of climate. The constructed database ranges from 1950 to 2013 and consists of monthly data from 147 rainfall stations and 37 CIs data provided mostly by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The next general steps were followed: (1) the study area was divided into 9 homogenous climatic regions and weighted precipitation was calculated for each region to reduce the local effects. (2) Each CI was decomposed into nine components of different frequencies (D1 to D9) using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The four lowest frequencies of each CI were selected. (3) Each of the original and resulting signals were shifted from one to six months to account for the effect of the global patterns. The application of steps two and three resulted in the creation of 1225 variables from the original 37 CIs. (4) The final 1225 variables were used to identify links between the global and regional CIs and precipitation in each of the nine homogenous regions using stepwise regression and decision tree. The preliminary analyses and results were focused on the north Atlantic zone and have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (PC-based) from NCAR (NAOPC), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WMO) and the Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (NINO12) have the highest correlation with rainfall (33%, 30%, 27%, 21% and -20%, respectively). In addition the 4-months lagged

  8. Extending Climate Analytics-As to the Earth System Grid Federation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    We are building three extensions to prior-funded work on climate analytics-as-a-service that will benefit the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) as it addresses the Big Data challenges of future climate research: (1) We are creating a cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables from six major reanalysis data sets. This near real-time capability will enable advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based Structured Query Language (SQL) query capabilities and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files while providing a platform for community experimentation with emerging analytic technologies. (2) We are building a full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service comprising monthly means data from six reanalysis data sets. The service will provide a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections. The operations will be made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services (CDS) API. (3) We are establishing an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation ESGF capabilities. The CDS API will be extended to accommodate the new WPS Web service endpoints as well as ESGF's Web service endpoints. These activities address some of the most important technical challenges for server-side analytics and support the research community's requirements for improved interoperability and improved access to reanalysis data.

  9. Transportation system resilience, extreme weather and climate change : a thought leadership series

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes key findings from the Transportation System Resilience, Extreme Weather and Climate Change thought leadership series held at Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center from fall 2013 to spring 2014.

  10. A multi-sensor study of conditions leading to the formation of a cyclone over the Arabian Sea during 5–9 May 2004

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rameshkumar, M.R.; Byju, P.

    in several studies. In the present study, we have used the interpolated OLR data provided by the NCAR/ NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre, Boulder, Colrado from their website http://www.cdc.noaa.gov (Liebmann and Smith, 1996). We have used the daily...

  11. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  12. A New Tool for Climatic Analysis Using the Koppen Climate Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Paul R.; Lohrengel, C. Frederick, II

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of climate classification is to help make order of the seemingly endless spatial distribution of climates. The Koppen classification system in a modified format is the most widely applied system in use today. This system may not be the best nor most complete climate classification that can be conceived, but it has gained widespread…

  13. Cold Climate Structural Fire Danger Rating System?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Monika Metallinou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, fires kill 300,000 people every year. The fire season is usually recognized to be in the warmer periods of the year. Recent research has, however, demonstrated that the colder season also has major challenges regarding severe fires, especially in inhabited (heated wood-based structures in cold-climate areas. Knowledge about the effect of dry cellulose-based materials on fire development, indoor and outdoor, is a motivation for monitoring possible changes in potential fire behavior and associated fire risk. The effect of wind in spreading fires to neighboring structures points towards using weather forecasts as information on potential fire spread behavior. As modern weather forecasts include temperature and relative humidity predictions, there may already be sufficient information available to develop a structural fire danger rating system. Such a system may include the following steps: (1 Record weather forecasts and actual temperature and relative humidity inside and outside selected structures; (2 Develop a meteorology-data-based model to predict indoor relative humidity levels; (3 Perform controlled drying chamber experiments involving typical hygroscopic fire fuel; (4 Compare the results to the recorded values in selected structures; and (5 Develop the risk model involving the results from drying chamber experiments, weather forecasts, and separation between structures. Knowledge about the structures at risk and their use is also important. The benefits of an automated fire danger rating system would be that the society can better plan for potentially severe cold-climate fires and thereby limit the negative impacts of such fires.

  14. Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maslowski, Wieslaw [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States)

    2016-10-17

    This project aims to develop, apply and evaluate a regional Arctic System model (RASM) for enhanced decadal predictions. Its overarching goal is to advance understanding of the past and present states of arctic climate and to facilitate improvements in seasonal to decadal predictions. In particular, it will focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The project will also address modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change in a region of the Earth that is: (i) a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification and (ii) which is undergoing environmental transitions not seen in instrumental records. RASM will readily allow the addition of other earth system components, such as ecosystem or biochemistry models, thus allowing it to facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts. As such, RASM is expected to become a foundation for more complete Arctic System models and part of a model hierarchy important for improving climate modeling and predictions.

  15. Computer Controlled Portable Greenhouse Climate Control System for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datsenko, Anthony; Myer, Steve; Petties, Albert; Hustek, Ryan; Thompson, Mark

    2010-04-01

    This paper discusses a student project at Kettering University focusing on the design and construction of an energy efficient greenhouse climate control system. In order to maintain acceptable temperatures and stabilize temperature fluctuations in a portable plastic greenhouse economically, a computer controlled climate control system was developed to capture and store thermal energy incident on the structure during daylight periods and release the stored thermal energy during dark periods. The thermal storage mass for the greenhouse system consisted of a water filled base unit. The heat exchanger consisted of a system of PVC tubing. The control system used a programmable LabView computer interface to meet functional specifications that minimized temperature fluctuations and recorded data during operation. The greenhouse was a portable sized unit with a 5' x 5' footprint. Control input sensors were temperature, water level, and humidity sensors and output control devices were fan actuating relays and water fill solenoid valves. A Graphical User Interface was developed to monitor the system, set control parameters, and to provide programmable data recording times and intervals.

  16. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  17. Consideration of climate effects in transportation system planning; Ilmastovaikutusten huomioon ottaminen liikennejaerjestelmaesuunnittelussa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Touru, T.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change is recognized as the biggest environmental threat of our time. Carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to the phenomenon are constantly rising in transport sector. Private cars cause most of the emissions. National and international politics strategies and targets for reducing greenhouse gases have been drawn up. Transport sector is one of the focused sectors. The transportation system plans are regional plans, used for implementing the strategies. The most important way in consideration of the climate effects in planning is an attempt to reduce private car use. This paper examines the Finnish transportation system planning, what means are used to affect the means of transport and hence emissions. The analysis examines how the methods have been implemented in Finnish plans. The study seeks to establish targets for development towards sustainable transportation systems. The literature study pointed out that there is a need to develop transportation system regulations in Finland. Plans are often copied from other projects, and only aimed to agree about the projects. Objectives set in the plans guide the selection of the projects poorly. Sustainable development of transportation system is based on reducing car-based traffic by development of pedestrian and bicycle traffic and public transport. Transportation system planning has traditionally focused on improving road network with big projects. Thus smaller projects have often been neglected. Public transport and pedestrian and bicycle traffic have been prioritized in strategic level since the first transportation plans from the 1990s. Often the strategic-level prioritization has not materialized in projects. Although the desires of the traffic development haven't come true, new means of prioritizing sustainable forms of traffic haven't appeared. Mobility management has been really introduced in the very latest plans. Also the consideration of climate effects has developed very recently

  18. The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

    2012-04-01

    The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

  19. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  20. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  1. The changing effects of Alaska's boreal forests on the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; Chapin, F.S. III [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Biology, Inst. of Arctic Biology; McGuire, A.D. [United Sates Geological Survey, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States); Rupp, T.S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Forest Sciences

    2010-07-15

    The boreal forest is the northernmost forested biome and is expected to be sensitive to global warming. Recent climate warming in the boreal forests of Alaska has influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between the forests and the atmosphere. In turn, these changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can influence regional and global climates. This study examined the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks were examined with particular reference to surface energy balance across boreal ecosystems and over the full annual cycle. The impact of ground heat exchange on permafrost was studied in terms of vegetation dynamics and disturbance regimes such as fires and insect outbreaks. In general, research has indicated that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. The main positive climate feedbacks are currently related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most dominant at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation by amplifying the rate of regional warming. This paper also described carbon and methane release from permafrost degradation, changes in lake area, changes in land use and snow season changes. The role of earth system models in representing climate feedbacks from Alaskan boreal forests was discussed. It was concluded that although the boreal forest provides climate regulation as an ecosystem service, the net effect of the climate feedbacks to climate warming are not fully understood. As such, there is a need to continue to evaluate feedback pathways, given the recent warming in Alaska and the large variety of associated mechanisms that can change terrestrial ecosystems and affect the climate system. 59 refs

  2. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

  3. Requirements Engineering in Building Climate Science Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batcheller, Archer L.

    Software has an important role in supporting scientific work. This dissertation studies teams that build scientific software, focusing on the way that they determine what the software should do. These requirements engineering processes are investigated through three case studies of climate science software projects. The Earth System Modeling Framework assists modeling applications, the Earth System Grid distributes data via a web portal, and the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Command Language is used to convert, analyze and visualize data. Document analysis, observation, and interviews were used to investigate the requirements-related work. The first research question is about how and why stakeholders engage in a project, and what they do for the project. Two key findings arise. First, user counts are a vital measure of project success, which makes adoption important and makes counting tricky and political. Second, despite the importance of quantities of users, a few particular "power users" develop a relationship with the software developers and play a special role in providing feedback to the software team and integrating the system into user practice. The second research question focuses on how project objectives are articulated and how they are put into practice. The team seeks to both build a software system according to product requirements but also to conduct their work according to process requirements such as user support. Support provides essential communication between users and developers that assists with refining and identifying requirements for the software. It also helps users to learn and apply the software to their real needs. User support is a vital activity for scientific software teams aspiring to create infrastructure. The third research question is about how change in scientific practice and knowledge leads to changes in the software, and vice versa. The "thickness" of a layer of software infrastructure impacts whether the

  4. Transmission of climate, sea-level, and tectonic singals across river systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forzoni, A.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis investigates the impact of climatic, tectonic, and sea-level changes (external forcing) on river systems (source-to-sink) and how these changes are recorded in the stratigraphic record. It describes a newly developed numerical tool (PaCMod) to simulate the complex fluvial system sediment

  5. Linking climate change education through the integration of a kite-borne remote sensing system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yichun Xie

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A majority of secondary science teachers are found to include the topic of climate change in their courses. However, teachers informally and sporadically discuss climate change and students rarely understand the underlying scientific concepts. The project team developed an innovative pedagogical approach, in which teachers and students learn climate change concepts by analyzing National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA global data collected through satellites and by imitating the NASA data collection process through NASA Airborne Earth Research Observation Kites And Tethered Systems (AEROKATS, a kite-borne remote sensing system. Besides AEROKATS, other major components of this system include a web-collection of NASA and remote sensing data and related educational resources, project-based learning for teacher professional development, teacher and student field trips, iOS devices, smart field data collector apps, portable weather stations, probeware, and a virtual teacher collaboratory supported with a GIS-enabled mapping portal. Three sets of research instruments, the NASA Long-Term Experience –Educator End of Event Survey, the Teacher End of Project Survey, and the pre-and-post-Investigating Climate Change and Remote Sensing (ICCARS project student exams, are adapted to study the pedagogical impacts of the NASA AEROKATS remote sensing system. These findings confirm that climate change education is more effective when both teachers and students actively participate in authentic scientific inquiry by collecting and analyzing remote sensing data, developing hypotheses, designing experiments, sharing findings, and discussing results.

  6. Contributions of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation, Large-Scale Circulation, and Shallow Cumulus Detrainment to Cloud Phase Transition in Mixed-Phase Clouds with NCAR CAM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, D.; Wang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Mixed-phase clouds consisting of both liquid and ice water occur frequently at high-latitudes and in mid-latitude storm track regions. This type of clouds has been shown to play a critical role in the surface energy balance, surface air temperature, and sea ice melting in the Arctic. Cloud phase partitioning between liquid and ice water determines the cloud optical depth of mixed-phase clouds because of distinct optical properties of liquid and ice hydrometeors. The representation and simulation of cloud phase partitioning in state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are associated with large biases. In this study, the cloud phase partition in mixed-phase clouds simulated from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) is evaluated against satellite observations. Observation-based supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) is calculated from CloudSat, MODIS and CPR radar detected liquid and ice water paths for clouds with cloud-top temperatures between -40 and 0°C. Sensitivity tests with CAM5 are conducted for different heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations with respect to aerosol influence (Wang et al., 2014), different phase transition temperatures for detrained cloud water from shallow convection (Kay et al., 2016), and different CAM5 model configurations (free-run versus nudged winds and temperature, Zhang et al., 2015). A classical nucleation theory-based ice nucleation parameterization in mixed-phase clouds increases the SLF especially at temperatures colder than -20°C, and significantly improves the model agreement with observations in the Arctic. The change of transition temperature for detrained cloud water increases the SLF at higher temperatures and improves the SLF mostly over the Southern Ocean. Even with the improved SLF from the ice nucleation and shallow cumulus detrainment, the low SLF biases in some regions can only be improved through the improved circulation with the nudging technique. Our study highlights the challenges of

  7. Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

    2017-12-01

    Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017

  8. Addressing Value and Belief Systems on Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K. S.

    2012-12-01

    The southeast (SEUS; AL, AR, GA, FL, KY, LA, NC, SC, TN, E. TX) faces the greatest impacts as a result of climate change of any region in the U.S. which presents considerable and costly adaptation challenges. Paradoxically, people in the SEUS hold attitudes and perceptions that are more dismissive of climate change than those of any other region. An additional mismatch exists between the manner in which climate science is generally communicated and the underlying core values and beliefs held by a large segment of people in the SEUS. As a result, people frequently misinterpret and/or distrust information sources, inhibiting efforts to productively discuss and consider climate change and related impacts on human and environmental systems, and possible solutions and outcomes. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project includes an extensive network of partners throughout the SEUS from faith, agriculture, culturally diverse, leisure, and K-20 educator communities that aim to address this educational need through a shared vision. CLiPSE has conducted a Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS) to determine the knowledge and perceptions of individuals in and beyond the CLiPSE network. The descriptive results of the CSS indicate that religion, predominantly Protestantism, plays a minor role in climate knowledge and perceptions. Likewise, political affiliation plays a minimal role in climate knowledge and perceptions between religions. However, when Protestants were broken out by political affiliation, statistically significant differences (t(30)=2.44, p=0.02) in knowledge related to the causes of climate change exist. Those Protestants affiliated with the Democratic Party (n=206) tended to maintain a statistically significant stronger knowledge of the causes of global climate change than their Republican counterparts. When SEUS educator (n=277) group was only considered, similar trends were evidenced, indicating that strongly held beliefs potentially

  9. Does the public deserve free access to climate system science?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigorov, Ivo

    2010-05-01

    Some time ago it was the lack of public access to medical research data that really stirred the issue and gave inertia for legislation and a new publishing model that puts tax payer-funded medical research in the hands of those who fund it. In today's age global climate change has become the biggest socio-economic challenge, and the same argument resonates: climate affects us all and the publicly-funded science quantifying it should be freely accessible to all stakeholders beyond academic research. Over the last few years the ‘Open Access' movement to remove as much as possible subscription, and other on-campus barriers to academic research has rapidly gathered pace, but despite significant progress, the climate system sciences are not among the leaders in providing full access to their publications and data. Beyond the ethical argument, there are proven and tangible benefits for the next generation of climate researchers to adapt the way their output is published. Through the means provided by ‘open access', both data and ideas can gain more visibility, use and citations for the authors, but also result in a more rapid exchange of knowledge and ideas, and ultimately progress towards a sought solution. The presentation will aim to stimulate discussion and seek progress on the following questions: Should free access to climate research (& data) be mandatory? What are the career benefits of using ‘open access' for young scientists? What means and methods should, or could, be incorporated into current European graduate training programmes in climate research, and possible ways forward?

  10. The DSET Tool Library: A software approach to enable data exchange between climate system models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCormick, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Climate modeling is a computationally intensive process. Until recently computers were not powerful enough to perform the complex calculations required to simulate the earth`s climate. As a result standalone programs were created that represent components of the earth`s climate (e.g., Atmospheric Circulation Model). However, recent advances in computing, including massively parallel computing, make it possible to couple the components forming a complete earth climate simulation. The ability to couple different climate model components will significantly improve our ability to predict climate accurately and reliably. Historically each major component of the coupled earth simulation is a standalone program designed independently with different coordinate systems and data representations. In order for two component models to be coupled, the data of one model must be mapped to the coordinate system of the second model. The focus of this project is to provide a general tool to facilitate the mapping of data between simulation components, with an emphasis on using object-oriented programming techniques to provide polynomial interpolation, line and area weighting, and aggregation services.

  11. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

  12. Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    You, Qinglong [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou (China); Aguilar, Enric [Universitat Rovirai Virgili de Tarragona, Climate Change Research Group, Geography Unit, Tarragona (Spain); Pepin, Nick [University of Portsmouth, Department of Geography, Portsmouth (United Kingdom); Fluegel, Wolfgang-Albert [Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Yan, Yuping [National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Xu, Yanwei; Huang, Jie [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Zhang, Yongjun [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China)

    2011-06-15

    negative magnitudes. This is inconsistent with changes of water vapor flux calculated from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Large scale atmospheric circulation changes derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis grids show that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation, increasing geopotential height and rapid warming over the Eurasian continent have contributed to the changes in climate extremes in China. (orig.)

  13. Impact of global warming on cyclonic storms over north Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sankar, S.

    ., Reynolds, R., Roy, Jenne. & Dennis, Joseph., The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 77(3)(1996) 437 – 471. 7 Smith, T.M. & Reynolds, R.W., Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854-1997), J. Climate, 17(2004) 2466...

  14. Impact of climate change on operations and planning of Hydro-Quebec's generation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raymond, M.P.; Houle, B.; Robert, S.

    2008-01-01

    Hydraulic resources currently account for more than 95 per cent of Hydro-Quebec's generation capacity. Hydro-Quebec also plans to purchase more wind power in the future. However, the utility wind and hydroelectric resources will be affected by climatic change in the future. This paper outlined research needed by hydroelectric and water resource managers in order to accurately determine the impacts of climatic change. Parameters included changes in annual and seasonal distribution as well as changes in the variability of natural inflows. The research will be used to determine the configuration of new projects as well as the refurbishment and replacement of existing infrastructure. Load profiles for the future indicate that electricity use will change, with less heating needed in winter, and more air conditioning required in summer months. The Delta method was used to determine impacts of future inflows and hydrological regimes. A case study of climate change impacts and management strategies for the Outardes River system up to the year 2050 was presented. The study showed that higher inflows are expected to produce more energy. Maintenance planning and flood control techniques were also discussed. The study showed that the effects of climate change on each of Hydro-Quebec's systems is expected to follow a similar pattern to the Outardes system. tabs., figs

  15. PERSPECTIVE: On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriegler, Elmar

    2007-03-01

    The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk. In his article [2], Harvey puts this idea into operation by presenting a back-of-the-envelope calculation to identify allowable CO2 concentrations under uncertainty about climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the location of a temperature threshold beyond which dangerous climate change will occur. Conditional on his assumptions, Harvey delivers an interesting result. With the current atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeding 380 ppm, a forcing contribution from other greenhouse gases adding an approximate 100 110 ppm CO2 equivalent on top of it, and a global dimming effect of aerosols that roughly compensates for this contribution (albeit still subject to considerable uncertainty) ([1], figures SPM-1 and 2), we are on the verge of or even committed to dangerous interference with the climate system if we (1) set the risk tolerance for experiencing dangerous climate change to 1% and (2) allocate at least 5% probability to the belief that climate sensitivity is 4

  16. European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-04-09

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

  17. Effects of climate change and adaptation on the livestock component of mixed farming systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Descheemaeker, Katrien; Zijlstra, Mink; Masikati, Patricia; Crespo, Olivier; Homann-Kee Tui, Sabine

    2018-01-01

    Large uncertainties about the impacts of climate change and adaptation options on the livestock component of heterogeneous African farming systems hamper tailored decision making towards climate-smart agriculture. This study addressed this knowledge gap through the development and use of a

  18. Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

  19. Final Technical Report for Department of Energy Award DE-SC0006625, “Predictability of the carbon-climate system on seasonal to decadal time scales.”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fung, Inez [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-12-21

    The project aims to investigate the feasibility of advancing our understanding of the carbon cycle, using a carbon-weather data assimilation system that updates the modeled carbon dioxide concentration and atmospheric circulation every six hours using CO2 data (from the OCO2 satellite) and weather data. At the core of the system is the DOE-NCAR-CAM5fv global circulation model coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Data Assimilation Testbed, running an ensemble of 30 models. This combination provides realistic vertical carbon dioxide gradients and conservation of dry air mass. A global four-dimensional distribution of atmospheric CO2 concentration is produced. Our results show (1) that OCO2 total precipitable water data are reliable and provide valuable uncertainty information for the OCO2 data assimilation; and (2) that our approach is a promising method for monitoring national carbon dioxide emissions.

  20. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K; Menon, S; Bartlein, P.J.; Feichter, J; Korhola, A; Kulmala, M; O' Donnell, D; Schurgers, G; Sorvari, S; Vesala, T

    2010-01-05

    The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the regulation of atmospheric composition, and hence climate, through multiple interlinked biogeochemical cycles (BGC). Ice-core and other palaeoenvironmental records show a fast response of vegetation cover and exchanges with the atmosphere to past climate change, although the phasing of these responses reflects spatial patterning and complex interactions between individual biospheric feedbacks. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenically-forced climate changes and air pollution, with equally complex feedbacks. For future conditions, although carbon cycle-climate interactions have been a major focus, other BGC feedbacks could be as important in modulating climate changes. The additional radiative forcing from terrestrial BGC feedbacks other than those conventionally attributed to the carbon cycle is in the range of 0.6 to 1.6 Wm{sup -2}; all taken together we estimate a possible maximum of around 3 Wm{sup -2} towards the end of the 21st century. There are large uncertainties associated with these estimates but, given that the majority of BGC feedbacks result in a positive forcing because of the fundamental link between metabolic stimulation and increasing temperature, improved quantification of these feedbacks and their incorporation in earth system models is necessary in order to develop coherent plans to manage ecosystems for climate mitigation.

  1. A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2016-09-01

    Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

  2. Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vliet, Oscar van; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David; Pachauri, Shonali; Nagai, Yu; Rao, Shilpa; Riahi, Keywan

    2012-01-01

    We use the MESSAGE model to examine multiple dimensions of sustainable development for three Asian regions in a set of scenarios developed for the Asian Modelling Exercise. Using climate change mitigation as a starting point for the analysis, we focus on the interaction of climate and energy with technology choice, energy security, energy access, and air pollution, which often have higher policy priority than climate change. Stringent climate policies drive the future energy supply in Asia from being dominated by coal and oil to a more diversified system based mostly on natural gas, coal with CCS, nuclear and renewable energy. The increase in diversity helps to improve the energy security of individual countries and regions. Combining air pollution control policies and universal energy access policies with climate policy can further help to reduce both outdoor and indoor air pollution related health impacts. Investments into the energy system must double by 2030 to achieve stringent climate goals, but are largely offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution abatement. Strong focus on end-use efficiency also helps lowering overall total costs and allows for limiting or excluding supply side technologies from the mitigation portfolio. Costs of additional energy access policies and measures are a small fraction of total energy system costs. - Highlights: ► Half of added investments in energy offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution. ► Costs for achieving universal energy access much smaller than energy system costs. ► Combined emissions and access policies further reduce air pollution impacts on health. ► Strong focus on end-use efficiency allows for more flexibility on energy sources. ► Stringent climate policy can improve energy security of Asian regions.

  3. Climate change adaptation and mitigation in smallholder crop–livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Descheemaeker, Katrien; Oosting, Simon J.; Homann-Kee Tui, Sabine; Masikati, Patricia; Falconnier, Gatien N.; Giller, K.E.

    2016-01-01

    African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm popula...

  4. Resilience of Athabascan subsistence systems to interior Alaska's changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kofinas, G.P. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; Chapin, F.S. III; Schmidt, J.I.; Kielland, K. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; BurnSilver, S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Fresco, N.L.; Springsteen, A.; Rupp, T.S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning; Martin, S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Social and Economic Research

    2010-07-15

    Indigenous peoples have occupied interior Alaska for 6000 to 9000 years. The arrival of different cultural groups, or Athabascan Peoples, preceded or coincided with the arrival of black spruce dominated fire-prone vegetation that developed in interior Alaska about 6000 years ago. The Athabascan subsistence hunting system of interior Alaska is a tightly integrated social-ecological system in which people depend on nature for a wide range of ecosystem services such as subsistence resources, protection from fire risk, and cultural ties to their traditional lands. This paper described the effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of the region and depicted the changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. The study focused primarily on moose because of the high dependence on moose by village households. The vulnerability of Athabascan subsistence systems to climatic change has increased in some respects, but has also improved aspects of village resilience. Communities facing future climate and socioeconomic changes, have limited but potentially effective mitigation and adaptation opportunities, but the extent to which they can be realized depends on the responsiveness of institutions to meet local needs through effective management strategies. 1 tab., 6 figs.

  5. Atmospheric balance of the humidity and estimate of the precipitation recycled in Colombia according to the re-analysis NCEP/NCAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuartas, Adriana; Poveda, German

    2002-01-01

    The magnitudes of the entrance humidity flows and exit are considered and the amount of precipitable water at different levels from the atmospheric column on Colombia. The water balance is quantified in the Colombian atmosphere; the regions and the atmospheric levels of entrance and exit of humidity are identified. The hypothesis that in the long term the net atmospheric humidity influence must be equal to the average of long term of the net run-off is verified. In addition, the percentage of recycled precipitation is considered on the Colombian territory. The variability during the two phases of the ENSO is analyzed. The calculations are made with the information of the climatic project Reanalysis developed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with the collaboration of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Environmental Satellite of the U.S.A. For this work it was counted on monthly information of 41 years between 1958-1998. The hydrological information was obtained from the project Balances Hidrologicos de Colombia, 1999, made by the Posgrado de Recursos Hidraulicos, de la Universidad Nacional, with the support of COLCIENCIAS and the Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica-UPME. The results showed the average value of the net influence of humidity to the atmosphere of Colombia is of 5716 mm/year, with a great variability in both phases of the ENSO. The greater humidity advection towards Colombia occurs in the low levels of pressure (between 1000 and 850 hPa), and originating of all the directions, mainly of trade winds of the east and trade winds of the west. Also one was that the greater humidity transport towards Colombia occurs in trimesters DJF and MAM, with average values 505,1 and 606,6 mm/year, respectively. It was observed that the hypothesis that in the long term, the net atmospheric flux, is equal to the net terrestrial run-off, reasonably is adapted for

  6. Detailed performance analysis of realistic solar photovoltaic systems at extensive climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Ankit; Chauhan, Yogesh K.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, solar energy has been considered as one of the principle renewable energy source for electric power generation. In this paper, single diode photovoltaic (PV) system and double/bypass diode based PV system are designed in MATLAB/Simulink environment based on their mathematical modeling and are validated with a commercially available solar panel. The novelty of the paper is to include the effect of climatic conditions i.e. variable irradiation level, wind speed, temperature, humidity level and dust accumulation in the modeling of both the PV systems to represent a realistic PV system. The comprehensive investigations are made on both the modeled PV systems. The obtained results show the satisfactory performance for realistic models of the PV system. Furthermore, an in depth comparative analysis is carried out for both PV systems. - Highlights: • Modeling of Single diode and Double diode PV systems in MATLAB/Simulink software. • Validation of designed PV systems with a commercially available PV panel. • Acquisition and employment of key climatic factors in modeling of the PV systems. • Evaluation of main model parameters of both the PV systems. • Detailed comparative assessment of both the modeled PV system parameters.

  7. Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Inland Pacific Northwest Cereal Production Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigenbrode, S. D.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Burke, I. C.; Capalbo, S.; Gessler, P.; Huggins, D. R.; Johnson-Maynard, J.; Kruger, C.; Lamb, B. K.; Machado, S.; Mote, P.; Painter, K.; Pan, W.; Petrie, S.; Paulitz, T. C.; Stockle, C.; Walden, V. P.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Wolf, K. J.

    2011-12-01

    The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture's potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include: - Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes, - Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), - Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, - Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. In this poster, we provide an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are underway since its inception in spring of 2011.

  8. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  9. America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liverman, D. M.; McConnell, M. C.; Raven, P.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study examines information needs and recommends ways the federal government can better inform responses by enhancing climate change and greenhouse gas information and reporting systems and by improving climate communication and education. Demand for better information to support climate-related decisions has grown rapidly as people, organizations, and governments have moved ahead with plans and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. To meet this demand, good information systems and services are needed. Without such systems, decision makers cannot evaluate whether particular policies and actions are achieving their goals or should be modified. Although the many non-federal efforts to reduce emissions and/or adapt to future climate changes carry considerable potential to reduce risks related to climate change, there is currently no comprehensive way to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. In addition, the diverse climate change responses to date have resulted in a patchwork of regional, state, and local policies that has prompted many state and business leaders to call for the development of a more predictable and coherent policy environment at the federal level. This report demonstrates that the nation lacks comprehensive, robust, and credible information and reporting systems to inform climate choices and evaluate their effectiveness. This report also argues that decision makers can benefit from a systematic and iterative framework for responding to climate change, in which decisions and policies can be revised in light of new information and experience and that improved information and reporting systems allow for ongoing evaluation of responses to climate risks. The

  10. Certification of passive houses : Lessons from real indoor climate systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mlecnik, E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines if and how indoor climate systems are important for passive house certification. The research subjects are passive houses in Belgium, occupied by owner-clients. These have received a quality assurance certificate from an independent organization. Through interviews with the

  11. Planning and costing adaptation of perennial crop systems to climate change: Coffee and banana in Rwanda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngabitsinze, Jean Chrysostome; Mukashema, Adrie; Ikirezi, Mireille; Niyitanga, Fidele

    2011-10-15

    The Rwandan economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since agricultural production in Rwanda depends almost exclusively on the quality of the rainy season and specific temperature ranges, it makes the country particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The study objective of evaluating and costing the most suitable climate change adaptation measures for this geographic context responds to the Rwandan Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy, 2008-2012 (EDPRS) (MINECOFIN 2007), in which climate change and its adverse impacts were recently identified as a high priority. This study has particularly focused on coffee and banana farming systems and aimed at analysing shocks due to climate change from farmer to policymaker perspectives. The study found that in the last 30 years, Rwanda has experienced a series of climate fluctuations in terms of frequency, intensity, and persistence of existing extremes. Heavy rains, storms, heatwaves and droughts are the observed manifestations of climate change in specific areas of Rwanda. Changing weather patterns have an adverse impact on the country's agricultural production and thus on the country's GDP. Adaptation options for Rwanda include the following efficiency-enhancing agricultural interventions: 1. Adaption of crop calendars to new climate patterns (more effective distribution of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides). 2. Investments in farming equipment. 3. Improvement of extension services and research. 4. Restructuring of the institutional frameworks and development plans. Integrated water resources management (IWRM); setting up information systems for early warning systems and rapid intervention mechanisms; intense agri-pastoral activities; and research on climate-resilient varieties were identified as primary requirements for agricultural adaption to climate change. In addition, developing alternative energy sources (e.g., substituting firewood) and the promotion of non

  12. Planning and costing adaptation of perennial crop systems to climate change: Coffee and banana in Rwanda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngabitsinze, Jean Chrysostome; Mukashema, Adrie; Ikirezi, Mireille; Niyitanga, Fidele

    2011-10-15

    The Rwandan economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since agricultural production in Rwanda depends almost exclusively on the quality of the rainy season and specific temperature ranges, it makes the country particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The study objective of evaluating and costing the most suitable climate change adaptation measures for this geographic context responds to the Rwandan Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy, 2008-2012 (EDPRS) (MINECOFIN 2007), in which climate change and its adverse impacts were recently identified as a high priority. This study has particularly focused on coffee and banana farming systems and aimed at analysing shocks due to climate change from farmer to policymaker perspectives. The study found that in the last 30 years, Rwanda has experienced a series of climate fluctuations in terms of frequency, intensity, and persistence of existing extremes. Heavy rains, storms, heatwaves and droughts are the observed manifestations of climate change in specific areas of Rwanda. Changing weather patterns have an adverse impact on the country's agricultural production and thus on the country's GDP. Adaptation options for Rwanda include the following efficiency-enhancing agricultural interventions: 1. Adaption of crop calendars to new climate patterns (more effective distribution of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides). 2. Investments in farming equipment. 3. Improvement of extension services and research. 4. Restructuring of the institutional frameworks and development plans. Integrated water resources management (IWRM); setting up information systems for early warning systems and rapid intervention mechanisms; intense agri-pastoral activities; and research on climate-resilient varieties were identified as primary requirements for agricultural adaption to climate change. In addition, developing alternative energy sources (e.g., substituting firewood) and the promotion of non-agricultural income

  13. Testing cloud microphysics parameterizations in NCAR CAM5 with ISDAC and M-PACE observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaohong; Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Shi, Xiangjun; Wang, Zhien; Lin, Wuyin; Ghan, Steven J.; Earle, Michael; Liu, Peter S. K.; Zelenyuk, Alla

    2011-01-01

    Arctic clouds simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) are evaluated with observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) and Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), which were conducted at its North Slope of Alaska site in April 2008 and October 2004, respectively. Model forecasts for the Arctic spring and fall seasons performed under the Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed framework generally reproduce the spatial distributions of cloud fraction for single-layer boundary-layer mixed-phase stratocumulus and multilayer or deep frontal clouds. However, for low-level stratocumulus, the model significantly underestimates the observed cloud liquid water content in both seasons. As a result, CAM5 significantly underestimates the surface downward longwave radiative fluxes by 20-40 W m-2. Introducing a new ice nucleation parameterization slightly improves the model performance for low-level mixed-phase clouds by increasing cloud liquid water content through the reduction of the conversion rate from cloud liquid to ice by the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process. The CAM5 single-column model testing shows that changing the instantaneous freezing temperature of rain to form snow from -5°C to -40°C causes a large increase in modeled cloud liquid water content through the slowing down of cloud liquid and rain-related processes (e.g., autoconversion of cloud liquid to rain). The underestimation of aerosol concentrations in CAM5 in the Arctic also plays an important role in the low bias of cloud liquid water in the single-layer mixed-phase clouds. In addition, numerical issues related to the coupling of model physics and time stepping in CAM5 are responsible for the model biases and will be explored in future studies.

  14. Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

  15. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  16. Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

  17. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  18. Climate impact on airborne particulate matter concentrations in California using seven year analysis periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The effect of global climate change on the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 in California was studied using a climate-air quality modeling system composed of global through regional models. Output from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM generated under the "business as usual" global emissions scenario was downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model followed by air quality simulations using the UCD/CIT airshed model. The system represents major atmospheric processes acting on gas and particle phase species including meteorological effects on emissions, advection, dispersion, chemical reaction rates, gas-particle conversion, and dry/wet deposition. The air quality simulations were carried out for the entire state of California with a resolution of 8-km for the years 2000–2006 (present climate with present emissions and 2047–2053 (future climate with present emissions. Each of these 7-year analysis periods was analyzed using a total of 1008 simulated days to span a climatologically relevant time period with a practical computational burden. The 7-year windows were chosen to properly account for annual variability with the added benefit that the air quality predictions under the present climate could be compared to actual measurements. The climate-air quality modeling system successfully predicted the spatial pattern of present climate PM2.5 concentrations in California but the absolute magnitude of the annual average PM2.5 concentrations were under-predicted by ~4–39% in the major air basins. The majority of this under-prediction was caused by excess ventilation predicted by PCM-WRF that should be present to the same degree in the current and future time periods so that the net bias introduced into the comparison is minimized.

    Surface temperature, relative humidity (RH, rain rate, and wind speed were predicted to increase in the future climate

  19. Integrated food–energy systems for climate-smart agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdanski Anne

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Food production needs to increase by 70%, mostly through yield increases, to feed the world in 2050. Increases in productivity achieved in the past are attributed in part to the significant use of fossil fuels. Energy use in agriculture is therefore also expected to rise in the future, further contributing to greenhouse emissions. At the same time, more than two-fifths of the world’s population still depends on unsustainably harvested wood energy for cooking and heating. Both types of energy use have detrimental impacts on the climate and natural resources. Continuing on this path is not an option as it will put additional pressure on the already stressed natural resource base and local livelihoods, while climate change is further reducing the resilience of agro-ecosystems and smallholder farmers. Ecosystem approaches that combine both food and energy production, such as agroforestry or integrated crop–livestock–biogas systems, could substantially mitigate these risks while providing both food and energy to rural and urban populations. Information and understanding on how to change course through the implementation of the practices outlined in this paper are urgently needed. Yet the scientific basis of such integrated systems, which is essential to inform decision-makers and to secure policy support, is still relatively scarce. The author therefore argues that new assessment methodologies based on a systems-oriented analysis are needed for analyzing these complex, multidisciplinary and large-scale phenomena.

  20. Final Report. Evaluating the Climate Sensitivity of Dissipative Subgrid-Scale Mixing Processes and Variable Resolution in NCAR's Community Earth