WorldWideScience

Sample records for natural hazard situation

  1. New Developments in Natural Hazard Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stötter, J.; Meißl, G.; Weck-Hannemann, H.; Veulliet, E.

    2003-04-01

    Natural hazard processes such as avalanches, debris flows, rockfalls, slides, slow mass movements and floods inherently threaten areas used for settlements, economic activities or transport in mountain regions like the Alps. In the recent past an increasing demand for new settlement, traffic and other land use areas has arisen, resulting in intensified utilization of land known to be threatened by natural hazard processes. In the same time a decrease of individual responsibility can be observed, leading to a growing call for protection by public authorities. As public financial resources become more limited in these days and the outsourcing of areas of traditional government responsibility increases, there is an urgent need for new, more effective and efficient strategies in natural hazard management, involving all relevant actors. To meet these new demands in dealing with natural hazards, the "alpS - Centre of Natural Hazard Management" was founded in October 2002 in Innsbruck/Austria, supported by the Austrian Government. Central goal of the alpS - Centre is to elaborate the basis for future sustainable safety of the alpine lebensraum. The following objectives will be addressed by an interdisciplinary team: - Systematic compilation and evaluation of the present situation. - Developing a more efficient and effective way of natural hazard management. - Implementation of a paradigm change. - Development of strategies for natural hazard management under changed frame conditions in the future (global change). Strong emphasis is laid on research on the socio-economic aspects of Natural Hazard Management, which have been more or less neglected up to now.

  2. The Nature of Natural Hazards Communication (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontar, Y. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Some of the many issues of interest to natural hazards professionals include the analysis of proactive approaches to the governance of risk from natural hazards and approaches to broaden the scope of public policies related to the management of risks from natural hazards, as well as including emergency and environmental management, community development and spatial planning related to natural hazards. During the talk we will present results of scientific review, analysis and synthesis, which emphasize same new trends in communication of the natural hazards theories and practices within an up-to-the-minute context of new environmental and climate change issues, new technologies, and a new focus on resiliency. The presentation is divided into five sections that focus on natural hazards communication in terms of education, risk management, public discourse, engaging the public, theoretical perspectives, and new media. It includes results of case studies and best practices. It delves into natural hazards communication theories, including diffusion, argumentation, and constructivism, to name a few. The presentation will provide information about: (1) A manual of natural hazards communication for scientists, policymakers, and media; (2) An up-to-the-minute context of environmental hazards, new technologies & political landscape; (3) A work by natural hazards scientists for geoscientists working with social scientists and communication principles; (4) A work underpinned by key natural hazards communication theories and interspersed with pragmatic solutions; (5) A work that crosses traditional natural hazards boundaries: international, interdisciplinary, theoretical/applied. We will further explore how spatial planning can contribute to risk governance by influencing the occupation of natural hazard-prone areas, and review the central role of emergency management in risk policy. The goal of this presentation is to contribute to the augmentation of the conceptual framework

  3. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

  4. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-04-01

    Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

  5. Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shandro, Bret; Haegeli, Pascal

    2018-04-01

    The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using self-organizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

  6. Natural hazards science strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

    2012-01-01

    The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events.To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science.In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory

  7. Natural Hazards, Second Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouhban, Badaoui

    Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

  8. Probabilistic disaggregation of a spatial portfolio of exposure for natural hazard risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2018-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution...... of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment....

  9. Gaseous emissions and toxic hazards associated with plastics in fire situations: A literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junod, T. L.

    1976-01-01

    The hazards of plastics in fire situations, the gases emitted, the factors influencing the nature of these emissions, the characteristics of toxic gases, and the results of laboratory studies, are discussed. The literature pertaining to the pyrolysis and oxidation of plastics was reviewed. An effort was made to define the state of the art for determining the toxic gases emitted by plastics under fire conditions. Recommendations are made and research needs defined as a result of this review.

  10. Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

  11. An Approach to Human Error Hazard Detection of Unexpected Situations in NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Sangjun; Oh, Yeonju; Shin, Youmin; Lee, Yong-Hee [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Fukushima accident is a typical complex event including the extreme situations induced by the succeeding earthquake, tsunami, explosion, and human errors. And it is judged with incomplete cause of system build-up same manner, procedure as a deficiency of response manual, education and training, team capability and the discharge of operator from human engineering point of view. Especially, the guidelines of current operating NPPs are not enough including countermeasures to the human errors at the extreme situations. Therefore, this paper describes a trial to detect the hazards of human errors at extreme situation, and to define the countermeasures that can properly response to the human error hazards when an individual, team, organization, and working entities that encounter the extreme situation in NPPs. In this paper we try to propose an approach to analyzing and extracting human error hazards for suggesting additional countermeasures to the human errors in unexpected situations. They might be utilized to develop contingency guidelines, especially for reducing the human error accident in NPPs. But the trial application in this study is currently limited since it is not easy to find accidents cases in detail enough to enumerate the proposed steps. Therefore, we will try to analyze as more cases as possible, and consider other environmental factors and human error conditions.

  12. An Approach to Human Error Hazard Detection of Unexpected Situations in NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Sangjun; Oh, Yeonju; Shin, Youmin; Lee, Yong-Hee

    2015-01-01

    Fukushima accident is a typical complex event including the extreme situations induced by the succeeding earthquake, tsunami, explosion, and human errors. And it is judged with incomplete cause of system build-up same manner, procedure as a deficiency of response manual, education and training, team capability and the discharge of operator from human engineering point of view. Especially, the guidelines of current operating NPPs are not enough including countermeasures to the human errors at the extreme situations. Therefore, this paper describes a trial to detect the hazards of human errors at extreme situation, and to define the countermeasures that can properly response to the human error hazards when an individual, team, organization, and working entities that encounter the extreme situation in NPPs. In this paper we try to propose an approach to analyzing and extracting human error hazards for suggesting additional countermeasures to the human errors in unexpected situations. They might be utilized to develop contingency guidelines, especially for reducing the human error accident in NPPs. But the trial application in this study is currently limited since it is not easy to find accidents cases in detail enough to enumerate the proposed steps. Therefore, we will try to analyze as more cases as possible, and consider other environmental factors and human error conditions

  13. Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, A. C.

    2009-04-01

    earth, and an extensive location database makes searching easy. The knowledge modules for historical catastrophes, megacities and change processes can be linked with each other and displayed on the maps. Completely new is the integration of the topic of climate change: various depictions of climate effects and projections show in which regions of the world risk situations have to be reckoned with in future. Thanks to its comprehensive information, the globe is an important tool for identifying risk locations worldwide and evaluating them from a geoscientific perspective. Thus, the transparency of insurance portfolios can be increased and legal requirements can be met. Munich Re's multi-discipline Geo Risks team combines a wealth of global experience and contacts. Clients benefit from a first-class natural hazard consultancy service and valuable support for introducing and implementing geographical information technology systems. The team can also provide the knowledge and technology to help clients plan and set up in-house solutions tailored to different classes of business in this innovative field of underwriting. With the new DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards" risk managers, scientists, lecturers and the public have access to Munich Re's natural hazard knowledge. The Globe of Natural Hazards is a natural hazard risk management tool that is easy to use and understand. Earth's exposure to extreme natural hazards will continue to increase. To overcome these challenges the insurance industry will need accurate and competent information.

  14. Satellite-Based Assessment of Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Hazard for Situational Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas

    2018-03-01

    Determining the time, location, and severity of natural disaster impacts is fundamental to formulating mitigation strategies, appropriate and timely responses, and robust recovery plans. A Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed to indicate potential landslide activity in near real-time. LHASA combines satellite-based precipitation estimates with a landslide susceptibility map derived from information on slope, geology, road networks, fault zones, and forest loss. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are used to identify rainfall conditions from the past 7 days. When rainfall is considered to be extreme and susceptibility values are moderate to very high, a "nowcast" is issued to indicate the times and places where landslides are more probable. When LHASA nowcasts were evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog, the probability of detection (POD) ranged from 8% to 60%, depending on the evaluation period, precipitation product used, and the size of the spatial and temporal window considered around each landslide point. Applications of the LHASA system are also discussed, including how LHASA is used to estimate long-term trends in potential landslide activity at a nearly global scale and how it can be used as a tool to support disaster risk assessment. LHASA is intended to provide situational awareness of landslide hazards in near real-time, providing a flexible, open-source framework that can be adapted to other spatial and temporal scales based on data availability.

  15. Natural Hazards and Supply Chain Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haraguchi, M.

    2016-12-01

    Natural hazards distress the global economy through disruptions in supply chain networks. Moreover, despite increasing investment to infrastructure for disaster risk management, economic damages and losses caused by natural hazards are increasing. Manufacturing companies today have reduced inventories and streamlined logistics in order to maximize economic competitiveness. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks, which are the risk of collapse of an entire network caused by a few node of the network. For instance, the prolonged floods in Thailand in 2011 caused supply chain disruptions in their primary industries, i.e. electronic and automotive industries, harming not only the Thai economy but also the global economy. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and the Earthquake in Kumamoto Japan in 2016. This study attempts to discover what kind of effective measures are available for private companies to manage supply chain disruptions caused by floods. It also proposes a method to estimate potential risks using a Bayesian network. The study uses a Bayesian network to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains such as logistics, multiple layers of suppliers, warehouses, and consumer markets. Considering situations across different times, our study shows desirable data requirements for the analysis and effective measures to improve Value at Risk (VaR) for private enterprises and supply chains.

  16. Natural phenomena hazards, Hanford Site, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrads, T.J.

    1998-01-01

    This document presents the natural phenomena hazard loads for use in implementing DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, and supports development of double-shell tank systems specifications at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The natural phenomena covered are seismic, flood, wind, volcanic ash, lightning, snow, temperature, solar radiation, suspended sediment, and relative humidity

  17. Resilience to Interacting multi-natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

    2016-04-01

    Conventional analyses of hazard assessment tend to focus on individual hazards in isolation. However, many parts of the world are usually affected by multiple natural hazards with the potential for interacting relationships. The understanding of such interactions, their impacts and the related uncertainties, are an important and topical area of research. Interacting multi-hazards may appear in different forms, including 1) CASCADING HAZARDS (a primary hazard triggering one or more secondary hazards such as an earthquake triggering landslides which may block river channels with dammed lakes and ensued floods), 2) CONCURRING HAZARDS (two or more primary hazards coinciding to trigger or exacerbate secondary hazards such as an earthquake and a rainfall event simultaneously creating landslides), and 3) ALTERING HAZARDS (a primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring such as major earthquakes disturbing soil/rock materials by violent ground shaking which alter the regional patterns of landslides and debris flows in the subsequent years to come). All three types of interacting multi-hazards may occur in natural hazard prone regions, so it is important that research on hazard resilience should cover all of them. In the past decades, great progresses have been made in tackling disaster risk around the world. However, there are still many challenging issues to be solved, and the disasters over recent years have clearly demonstrated the inadequate resilience in our highly interconnected and interdependent systems. We have identified the following weaknesses and knowledge gaps in the current disaster risk management: 1) although our understanding in individual hazards has been greatly improved, there is a lack of sound knowledge about mechanisms and processes of interacting multi-hazards. Therefore, the resultant multi-hazard risk is often significantly underestimated with severe consequences. It is also poorly understood about the spatial and

  18. Architecture Design for the Space Situational Awareness System in the Preparedness Plan for Space Hazards of Republic of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, E.; Cho, S.; Shin, S.; Park, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, D.

    The threat posed by asteroids and comets has become one of the important issues. Jinju meteorite discovered in March 2014 has expanded the interest of the people of the fall of the natural space objects. Furthermore, the growing quantity of space debris is a serious threat to satellites and other spacecraft, which risk being damaged or even destroyed. In May of 2014, Korea established the preparedness plan for space hazards according to the space development promotion act which is amended to take action with respect to hazards from space. This plan is largely composed of 3 items such as system, technology and infrastructure. System is included the establishment and management of national space hazards headquarters at risk situation. Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) was designated as a space environment monitoring agency under the ministry of science, ICT and future planning (MSIP). Technology is supposed to develop the space situational awareness system that can monitor and detect space objects. For infrastructure, research and development of core technology will be promoted for capabilities improvement of space hazards preparedness such as software tools, application and data systems. This paper presents the architectural design for building space situational awareness system. The trade-off study of space situational awareness system for the Korea situation was performed. The results have shown the proposed architectural design. The baseline architecture is composed of Integrated Analysis System and Space Objects Monitoring System. Integrated Analysis System collects the status data from Space Objects Monitoring System and analyzes the space risk information through a data processing. For Space Objects Monitoring System, the all-sky surveillance camera, array radar and meteoroid surveillance sensor networks were considered. This system focuses on not only the threat of a large artificial satellite and natural space objects such as asteroids that

  19. Natural phenomena hazards, Hanford Site, south central Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tallman, A.M.

    1996-01-01

    This document presents the natural phenomena hazard (NPH) loads for use in implementing DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The purpose of this document is twofold: (1) summarize the NPH that are important to the design and evaluation of structures, systems, and components at the Hanford Site; (2) develop the appropriate natural phenomena loads for use in the implementation of DOE Order 5480.28. The supporting standards, DOE-STD-1020-94, Natural Phenomena Hazards Design and Evaluation Criteria for Department of Energy Facilities (DOE 1994a); DOE-STD-1022-94, Natural Phenomena Hazards Site Characteristics Criteria (DOE 1994b); and DOE-STD-1023-95, Natural Phenomena Hazards Assessment Criteria (DOE 1995) are the basis for developing the NPH loads

  20. Operational and contractual impacts in E and P offshore during predicted natural hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benevides, Paulo Roberto Correa de Sa e [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Generally, when E and P operators using DP (Dynamic Positioning) are advised previously of a possible natural hazard occurrence, usually they consider it like an emergency situation and their main action is oriented only to prepare the first response and use the 'force majeure' argumentation to protect itself from any additional responsibility. When the natural phenomenon actually happens, the expenses due to the losses will be accepted because it was already considered in its budget as 'Losses due to accident' and it will be shared by the partners of the project according to the correspondent contractual terms. This paper describes real cases of the evolution of predictions for natural hazards in offshore basins in Brazil, Western Africa and Gulf of Mexico where PETROBRAS and many other oil companies have used DP operations. It proposes some alternative procedures through the BCM (Business Continuity Management) to manage natural crisis instead of the common use of the traditional 'force majeure' argumentation. (author)

  1. Regulatory Activities to the Natural Hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kangryong; Jung, Raeyoung

    2008-01-01

    The safety of the Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs) against the natural hazards has been investigated focused on earthquake and tsunami. Since the mass media and general people have high interests on nuclear safety whenever the natural hazards occur, earthquake and tsunami are not only technical safety concern, but also psychological issues in terms of public acceptance of nuclear energy. The Korean peninsula has been considered as a safe zone compared to neighboring countries against natural hazard, but the historical documents which state severely damaged events due to the strong earthquake make US paying careful attention to assure the safety against natural phenomenon. The potential and characteristics of earthquake and tsunami have been examined, and the status of seismic and tsunami safety of the NPPs in Korea is described. the follow-up action after disastrous huge earthquake and tsunami occurred in neighboring countries is summarized as well. The assessment results show that the NPPs in Korea are well designed, constructed and maintained with certain amount of safety margin against natural hazards, and the utility and the regulatory body are continuously doing an effort to enhance the safety with consideration of lessons learned from big events in other countries

  2. GIS and RS-based modelling of potential natural hazard areas in Pehchevo municipality, Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milevski Ivica

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, one approach of Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS assessment of potential natural hazard areas (excess erosion, landslides, flash floods and fires is presented. For that purpose Pehchevo Municipality in the easternmost part of the Republic of Macedonia is selected as a case study area because of high local impact of natural hazards on the environment, social-demographic situation and local economy. First of all, most relevant static factors for each type of natural hazard are selected (topography, land cover, anthropogenic objects and infrastructure. With GIS and satellite imagery, multi-layer calculation is performed based on available traditional equations, clustering or discreditation procedures. In such way suitable relatively “static” natural hazard maps (models are produced. Then, dynamic (mostly climate related factors are included in previous models resulting in appropriate scenarios correlated with different amounts of precipitation, temperature, wind direction etc. Finally, GIS based scenarios are evaluated and tested with field check or very fine resolution Google Earth imagery showing good accuracy. Further development of such GIS models in connection with automatic remote meteorological stations and dynamic satellite imagery (like MODIS will provide on-time warning for coming natural hazard avoiding potential damages or even causalities.

  3. The approaches for the decision support in case natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyazilov, Evgeny; Chunyaev, Nikita

    2013-04-01

    In spite of using highly automated systems of measurement, collecting, storing, handling, prediction and delivery of information on the marine environment, including natural hazards, the amount of damage from natural phenomena increases. Because information on the marine environment delivered to the industrial facilities not effectively used. To such information pays little attention by individual decision-makers and not always perform preventive measures necessary for reduce and prevent damage. Automation of information support will improve the efficiency management of the marine activities. In Russia develops "The Unified system of the information about World ocean" (ESIMO, http://esimo.ru/), that integrates observation, analysis, prognostic and climate data. Necessary to create tools to automatic selection natural disasters through all integrated data; notification decision-makers about arising natural hazards - software agent; provision of information in a compact form for the decision-makers; assessment of possible damage and costs to the preventive measures; providing information on the impacts of environment on economic facilities and recommendations for decision-making; the use of maps, diagrams, tables for reporting. Tools for automatic selection designed for identification of natural phenomena based on the resources ESIMO and corresponding critical values of the indicators environment. The result of this module will be constantly updated database of critical situations of environment for each object or technological process. To operational notify and provide current information about natural hazards proposes using a software agent that is installed on the computer decision-makers, which is activated in case critical situations and provides a minimum of information. In the event of natural disaster software agent should be able to inform decision-makers about this, providing information on the current situation, and the possibility for more and detailed

  4. Assessing Natural Hazard Vulnerability Through Marmara Region Using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.

    2013-12-01

    Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.

  5. Natural Hazards Image Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazards. Research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for...

  6. Loss experience from natural phenomena hazards in the Department of Energy (50 years of natural phenomena hazard losses)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, J.R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a historical prespective on losses due to natural hazard incidents (1943-1993) at Department of Energy (DOE) and predecessor agencies including the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) and the Energy Research and Development Agency (ERDA). This paper also demonstrates how an existing DOE resource can be used to gain valuable insight into injury or property damage incidents. That resource is the Computerized Accident/Incident Reporting System (CAIRS) module of DOE's Safety Performance Measurement System. CAIRS data selected the 1981-1991 DOE injury/illness reports, from all the accident reports of the AEC that cited a natural phenomena hazard as either the direct or indirect cause of the injury/property damage. Specifically, injury or property damage reports were selected for analysis if they had a causal factor link to severe weather or natural phenomena hazard categories. Natural phenomena hazard categories are injury/property damage caused by hurricane/tornado, earthquake, lightning, or flood. Severe weather categories are injury/property damage associated with other than normal weather conditions. The lessons learned, as a result of reviewing case histories, are presented, as are suggestions on how to reduce the likelihood of future injuries/property damage as a result of similar events. A significant finding, is that most injuries and property damage were the result of an indirect causal link to a natural phenomena hazard and thus, may be more preventable than previously thought possible. The primary message, however, is that CAIRS and other incident data bases are valuable resources and should be considered for use by those interested in identifying new ways of protecting the health and safety of the worker and for reducing building losses due to the effects of natural phenomena hazards

  7. The «Natural Hazard WIKISAURUS»: explanation and understanding of natural hazards to build disaster resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapisardi, Elena; Di Franco, Sabina; Giardino, Marco

    2013-04-01

    In the Internet and Web 2.0 era, the need of information is increased. Moreover, recent major and minor disasters highlighted that information is a crucial element also in emergency management. Informing the population is now the focal point of any civil protection activity and program. Risk perception and social vulnerability become widely discussed issues "when a disaster occurs": a "day-after" approach that should be replaced by a "day-before" one. Is that a cultural problem? Is it a communication issue? As a matter of fact, nowadays academics, experts, institutions are called to be more effective in transferring natural hazards knowledge (technical, operational, historical, social) to the public, for switching from «protection/passivity» (focused on disaster event) to «resilience» (focused on vulnerability). However, this change includes to abandon the "Elites Knowledge" approach and to support "Open Knowledge" and "Open Data" perspectives. Validated scientific information on natural hazards is not yet a common heritage: there are several cases of misleading or inaccurate information published by media. During recent Italian national emergencies [Flash Floods Liguria-Toscana 2011, Earthquake Emilia-Romagna 2012], social media registered people not only asking for news on the disaster event, but also talking trivially about scientific contents on natural hazards. By considering these facts, in the framework of a phD program in Earth Science, a joint team UNITO-NatRisk and CNR-IIA conceived the web project "Natural Hazards Wikisaurus" [NHW], combining two previous experiences: "HyperIspro" - a wiki on civil protection set up by Giuseppe Zamberletti, former Italian minister of Civil Protection - and "Earth Thesaurus", developed by CNR-IIA. The team decided to start from the «words» using both the collaboration of the wiki concept (open and participatory knowledge) and the power of explanation of a thesaurus. Why? Because a word is not enough, as a term has

  8. Natural and technologic hazardous material releases during and after natural disasters: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Stacy; Balluz, Lina; Malilay, Josephine

    2004-04-25

    Natural disasters may be powerful and prominent mechanisms of direct and indirect hazardous material (hazmat) releases. Hazardous materials that are released as the result of a technologic malfunction precipitated by a natural event are referred to as natural-technologic or na-tech events. Na-tech events pose unique environmental and human hazards. Disaster-associated hazardous material releases are of concern, given increases in population density and accelerating industrial development in areas subject to natural disasters. These trends increase the probability of catastrophic future disasters and the potential for mass human exposure to hazardous materials released during disasters. This systematic review summarizes direct and indirect disaster-associated releases, as well as environmental contamination and adverse human health effects that have resulted from natural disaster-related hazmat incidents. Thorough examination of historic disaster-related hazmat releases can be used to identify future threats and improve mitigation and prevention efforts.

  9. Rapid SAR and GPS Measurements and Models for Hazard Science and Situational Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, S. E.; Yun, S. H.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Liu, Z.; Moore, A. W.; Rosen, P. A.; Simons, M.; Webb, F.; Linick, J.; Fielding, E. J.; Lundgren, P.; Sacco, G. F.; Polet, J.; Manipon, G.

    2016-12-01

    The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards is focused on rapidly generating higher level geodetic imaging products and placing them in the hands of the solid earth science and local, national, and international natural hazard communities by providing science product generation, exploration, and delivery capabilities at an operational level. Space-based geodetic measurement techniques such as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS), SAR-based change detection, and image pixel tracking have recently become critical additions to our toolset for understanding and mapping the damage caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and floods. Analyses of these data sets are still largely handcrafted following each event and are not generated rapidly and reliably enough for response to natural disasters or for timely analysis of large data sets. The ARIA project, a joint venture co-sponsored by California Institute of Technology (Caltech) and by NASA through the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), has been capturing the knowledge applied to these responses and building it into an automated infrastructure to generate imaging products in near real-time that can improve situational awareness for disaster response. In addition, the ARIA project is developing the capabilities to provide automated imaging and analysis capabilities necessary to keep up with the imminent increase in raw data from geodetic imaging missions planned for launch by NASA, as well as international space agencies. We will present the progress we have made on automating the analysis of SAR data for hazard monitoring and response using data from Sentinel 1a/b as well as continuous GPS stations. Since the beginning of our project, our team has imaged events and generated response products for events around the world. These response products have enabled many conversations with those in the disaster response community

  10. The role of new technologies in risks from natural hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, J.S.

    1982-01-01

    The author places some prior natural hazards research into the context of risk from new technologies to show that some beneficial technologies increase the risk from natural hazards. He examines the role of new technologies in risks from natural hazards in a historical perspective, using examples from research on mountain hazards

  11. Third DOE natural phenomena hazards mitigation conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    This conference on Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation has been organized into 15 presentation, panel, and poster sessions. The sessions included an overview of activities at DOE Headquarters; natural phenomena hazards tasks underway for DOE; two sessions on codes, standards, orders, criteria, and guidelines; two sessions on seismic hazards; equipment qualification; wind; PRA and margin assessments; modifications, retrofit, and restart; underground structures with a panel discussion; seismic analysis; seismic evaluation and design; and a poster session. Individual projects are processed separately for the data bases

  12. Natural hazard and disaster tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rucińska Dorota

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available An observed trend, which can be defined as tourist interest in natural hazards and disasters, has persuaded the authors to attempt to research several issues, including tourist motivations and specific tourism properties and functions of this form of activity. The objective also covered the allocation of this social and natural process in the general structure of tourism. This interest has a long history, and a new stage is currently forming, which partly results from factors affecting society, such as information and education, which provoke antagonistic reactions. Extreme natural phenomena entail a common reduction of tourist interest in the destination which hosted the event; however, it never drops to zero. Differences are visible depending on the type of phenomenon. On the other hand, natural hazards and disasters are considered to hold a specific tourism value. This article discusses the allocation of this human activity in the tourism forms known to scientists, accounting for its diversity and relating to ethics.

  13. Second DOE natural phenomena hazards mitigation conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    This conference has been organized into ten presentation sessions which include an overview of the DOE Natural Phenomena Guidelines, Seismic Analysis, Seismic Design, Modifying Existing Facilities, DOE Orders, Codes, and Standards (2 sessions), Seismic Hazard (2 sessions), and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (2 sessions). Two poster sessions were also included in the program to provide a different forum for communication of ideas. Over the past fourteen years, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Nuclear Systems Safety Program, has been working with the US Department of Energy, Office of Safety Appraisals and their predecessors in the area of natural phenomena hazards. During this time we have developed seismic, extreme wind/tornado, and flood hazard models for DOE sites in the United States. Guidelines for designing and evaluating DOE facilities for natural phenomena have been developed and are in interim use throughout the DOE community. A series of state-of-the practice manuals have also been developed to aid the designers. All of this material is listed in the Natural Phenomena Hazards Bibliography included in these proceedings. This conference provides a mechanism to disseminate current information on natural phenomena hazards and their mitigation. It provides an opportunity to bring together members of the DOE community to discuss current projects, to share information, and to hear practicing members of the structural engineering community discuss their experiences from past natural phenomena, future trends, and any changes to building codes. Each paper or poster presented is included in these proceedings. We have also included material related to the luncheon and dinner talks

  14. Sustainable regional development and natural hazard impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, Elena; Svetlosanov, Vladimir; Kudin, Valery

    2016-04-01

    During the last decades, natural hazard impacts on social and economic development in many countries were increasing due to the expansion of human activities into the areas prone to natural risks as well as to increasing in number and severity of natural hazardous events caused by climate changes and other natural phenomena. The escalation of severe disasters (such as Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011) triggered by natural hazards and related natural-technological and environmental events is increasingly threatening sustainable development at different levels from regional to global scale. In our study, we develop a model of ecological, economic and social sustainable development for the European part of Russia and the Republic of Belarus. The model consists of six blocks including 1) population, 2) environment, 3) mineral resources, 4) geographic space, 5) investments, and 6) food production and import. These blocks were created based on the analysis of the main processes at the regional level; all the blocks are closely interrelated between each other. Reaching the limit values of block parameters corresponds to a sharp deterioration of the system; as a result, the system can lose its stability. Aggravation of natural and natural-technological risk impacts on each block and should be taken into account in the model of regional development. Natural hazards can cause both strong influences and small but permanent perturbations. In both cases, a system can become unstable. The criterion for sustainable development is proposed. The Russian Foundation for Humanities and Belorussian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research supported the study (project 15-22-01008).

  15. Political science, public administration, and natural hazards: contributions and connections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, E.

    2009-04-01

    The connection between the natural and social sciences has become stronger, and has increasingly been recognized as a vital component in the area of natural hazards research. Moving applied natural hazards research into the public policy or administration realm is not often easy, or effective. An improved understanding of the connection between the natural and social sciences can assist in this process and result in better public policy, acceptance from the public for these policies, and a safer and better educated public. This paper will present initial findings from a larger data set on natural hazards and social science research. Specifically we will review the current contribution of the formal academic disciplines of political science and public administration within recent natural hazards-related scholarship. The general characteristics of the contributions (e.g. coauthored, interdisciplinary, etc.), specific theories and methods being applied, and the types of natural hazards being scrutinized by these related fields will be assessed. In conclusion we will discuss future contributions and areas for potential collaboration between the natural and social sciences in the area of natural hazards research.

  16. Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, Valerii

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

  17. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

  18. Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

  19. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  20. Introduction to Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte, João C.; Schellart, Wouter P.

    2016-01-01

    A great variety of natural hazards occur on Earth, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides, floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, and avalanches. The most destructive of these hazards, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, are mostly associated with tectonic plate

  1. Integrating Real-time Earthquakes into Natural Hazard Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, K. P.; Benz, H. M.; Whitlock, J. S.; Bittenbinder, A. N.; Bogaert, B. B.

    2001-12-01

    Natural hazard courses are playing an increasingly important role in college and university earth science curricula. Students' intrinsic curiosity about the subject and the potential to make the course relevant to the interests of both science and non-science students make natural hazards courses popular additions to a department's offerings. However, one vital aspect of "real-life" natural hazard management that has not translated well into the classroom is the real-time nature of both events and response. The lack of a way to entrain students into the event/response mode has made implementing such real-time activities into classroom activities problematic. Although a variety of web sites provide near real-time postings of natural hazards, students essentially learn of the event after the fact. This is particularly true for earthquakes and other events with few precursors. As a result, the "time factor" and personal responsibility associated with natural hazard response is lost to the students. We have integrated the real-time aspects of earthquake response into two natural hazard courses at Penn State (a 'general education' course for non-science majors, and an upper-level course for science majors) by implementing a modification of the USGS Earthworm system. The Earthworm Database Management System (E-DBMS) catalogs current global seismic activity. It provides earthquake professionals with real-time email/cell phone alerts of global seismic activity and access to the data for review/revision purposes. We have modified this system so that real-time response can be used to address specific scientific, policy, and social questions in our classes. As a prototype of using the E-DBMS in courses, we have established an Earthworm server at Penn State. This server receives national and global seismic network data and, in turn, transmits the tailored alerts to "on-duty" students (e-mail, pager/cell phone notification). These students are responsible to react to the alarm

  2. Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a broad overview, characterization, and visualization of the interaction relationships between 21 natural hazards, drawn from six hazard groups (geophysical, hydrological, shallow Earth, atmospheric, biophysical, and space hazards). A synthesis is presented of the identified interaction relationships between these hazards, using an accessible visual format particularly suited to end users. Interactions considered are primarily those where a primary hazard triggers or increases the probability of secondary hazards occurring. In this paper we do the following: (i) identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, 90 interactions; (ii) subdivide the interactions into three levels, based on how well we can characterize secondary hazards, given information about the primary hazard; (iii) determine the spatial overlap and temporal likelihood of the triggering relationships occurring; and (iv) examine the relationship between primary and secondary hazard intensities for each identified hazard interaction and group these into five possible categories. In this study we have synthesized, using accessible visualization techniques, large amounts of information drawn from many scientific disciplines. We outline the importance of constraining hazard interactions and reinforce the importance of a holistic (or multihazard) approach to natural hazard assessment. This approach allows those undertaking research into single hazards to place their work within the context of other hazards. It also communicates important aspects of hazard interactions, facilitating an effective analysis by those working on reducing and managing disaster risk within both the policy and practitioner communities.

  3. Natural hazards and urban policies in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Mancebo

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available L’agglomération de Mexico, à plus de 2 000 mètres d’altitude, adossée à la Sierra Madre et la Cordillère Volcanique est assise sur un site accueillant mais redoutable. Il s’agit d’un des endroits les plus exposés du globe, soumis à une combinaison de risques naturels, de risques technologiques souvent mal maîtrisés dus à des industries lourdes, de nuisances, de cumul des polluants et d’un épuisement des ressources locales utilisables, tout particulièrement les ressources en eau. Après le séisme dévastateur de 1985, les acteurs de l’aménagement de Mexico tentent d’intégrer risques et durabilité dans la définition de nouvelles politiques urbaines. Mais, si les risques sont bien identifiés et des réponses sont données, leur applicabilité est quasi-nulle. Une approche normative et n’incluant pas l’ensemble de l’agglomération, mais utilisant les périphéries pour améliorer la durabilité des centres (sorte de durabilité importée à l’échelle de la métropole explique cette situation. Comme dans le mythe de Sisyphe, acteurs locaux et nationaux tentent de faire remonter la pente au rocher du risque mais ce dernier finit toujours par redescendre ? C’est qu’en réalité le problème n’est pas le rocher. Le problème, c’est la pente, c’est-à-dire le substrat fait de représentations territoriales et d’usages de l’espace qui fondent la société mexicaine, sur laquelle roule le rocher.Mexico City is located at an altitude of over 2 000 metres where it occupies an attractive but hazardous site hemmed in by the Sierra Madre and volcanic mountain ranges.The site is one of the most disaster-prone locations in the world, threatened by a combination of natural hazards, poorly controlled technological hazards created by the city’s heavy industry, pollution – particularly air pollution and diminishing local resources, the most seriously threatened being water. Since the devastating earthquake

  4. Natural Hazards, Poverty Traps versus Economic Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Netti, Dr.

    2012-04-01

    Governments, even in developed countries, devote too scarce resources to coping (ex-ante) with natural hazards; as a consequence of this short-sightedness, (ex-post) direct and indirect effects of catastrophic events deeply compromise the economic growth. Protective measures against natural hazards mean complex choices involving the opinions of multidisciplinary groups of experts in the fields of ecology, civic and geotechnical engineering, geology, meteorology, law and economics. Moreover, tools and choices affect different stakeholders: politicians, producers, consumers, taxpayers and voters. Complementarity between informed rationality and democracy need to be recognized and guaranteed as too often the perceptions of the majority of the stakeholders involved about natural hazards are not consistent with any objective information about the catastrophic event. The interaction between strict budget constraints, extremely high degrees of uncertainty, risk-aversion and credit rationing, trade-off between democracy and rationality, are the main causes of potential 'poverty traps'. First of all we believe that the 'reconstruction output' to be included in GDP as an ex-post effect of a natural hazard is a forced investment much more effective in crowding-out other consumption and investment and less effective for growth than investments aiming at increasing, ex-ante, the resiliency of the economy. Keynes' 'Animal Spirits' are embedded in positive expectation for future gains especially if not concentrated in reconstruction procurement sectors but spread across different sectors of the economy. The increased demand for reconstruction goods and services may act in both directions depending on the phase of the business cycles in which the economy is. Risk premiums for risk-averter investors increase in consequence of a natural hazard event; this restrict budget constraints and strengthen credit rationing. A mere replacement effect of the destroyed capital by a more

  5. Periurbanisation and natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delphine Loison

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In mountainous areas in recent decades urbanisation has expanded to areas where low ground adjoins mountainsides that are unstable in a number of respects. Periurbanisation in mountain basins with unstable sides poses specific problems that local players have to address. The Lavanchon basin (southeast of Grenoble, which is subject to very rapid urban growth combined with particularly dynamic mountainsides, is representative of the way activity is being brought into closer contact with potential hazards. A diachronic study of changes in land use between 1956 and 2001 shows how valley infrastructures at the bottom of mountainsides have become increasingly dense. In this context, a survey was carried out among a number of residents in the Lavanchon basin in an attempt to evaluate the degree of awareness that the population has of the natural hazards to which it is exposed. The results show that slightly more than half of the population surveyed was aware of the problem of natural hazards being present in the area, with most inhabitants being more concerned about industrial and pollution hazards. New residents were unaware of or were unwilling to accept the reality of hazards. The low incidence of significant natural events, the effectiveness of the protective structures built, the absence of information provided by the public authorities and the division of the basin between several management bodies appear to have engendered a feeling of safety from natural phenomena. The geographical distribution of appreciation of the hazard clearly shows a distinction between those inhabitants living on the low ground and those at the bottom of the mountainsides, and this corresponds fairly closely with the historical and current location of the main potentially hazardous events that have occurred.Dans les territoires de montagne, les dernières décennies ont vu l’expansion de l’urbanisation vers les zones de contact entre la plaine et les versants, lieux

  6. Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

    2012-12-01

    Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

  7. Lin Receives 2010 Natural Hazards Focus Group Award for Graduate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    Ning Lin has been awarded the Natural Hazards Focus Group Award for Graduate Research, given annually to a recent Ph.D. recipient for outstanding contributions to natural hazards research. Lin's thesis is entitled “Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes.” She is scheduled to present an invited talk in the Extreme Natural Events: Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation session (NH20) during the 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, held 13-17 December in San Francisco, Calif. Lin will be formally presented with the award at the Natural Hazards focus group reception on 14 December 2010.

  8. Towards a common formalization of resilience and vulnerability to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rougé, Charles; Mathias, Jean-Denis; Deffuant, Guillaume

    2015-04-01

    Resilience and vulnerability are two widely-used concepts when it comes to describe the potential impacts of natural hazards on a social and ecological system. They are an attractive way to communicate both with stakeholders and between the different disciplinary fields that use them in that context. Therefore, a formal definition of the concepts is warranted so as to provide a non-ambiguous reference for discussion and avoid misunderstandings. Besides, such a formalization should strive to formalize both concepts together so as to use their complimentarity. This abstract uses a stochastic controlled dynamical system formulation to propose a common framework for the definition of both resilience and vulnerability. Stochasticity represents all sources of uncertainty post-hazard, and the hazard is assumed to be an exogenous input. This mathematical representation highlights how the interplay between a natural hazard, the system's dynamic and the possible action policies influence the final outcome after the hazard hits. It also clarifies the role of normative choices in defining indicators that may inform or guide the system's management. More importantly, we demonstrate how the proposed framework may serve as a basis to generate indicators that are representative of general definitions of the concepts, yet flexible enough to be easily adapted to very diverse situations. Resilience is the ability for the system to keep or recover its properties of interest after a perturbation, while vulnerability is defined in a most general way as a measure of future harm. The definition of vulnerability leads to a variety of possible indicators, and ultimately to the identification of safe configurations of the system. Being resilient is then the fact of returning to a safe configuration, and the probability of resilience is that of doing so within a pre-defined time frame. Then, indicators may be designed around the probability distribution of return times. We show how viability

  9. Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

    2012-12-01

    The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the

  10. Natural and Man-Made Hazards in the Cayman Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Suarez, G.

    2010-12-01

    Located in the western Caribbean Sea to the northwest of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands are a British overseas territory comprised of three islands: Grand Cayman, Cayman Brac, and Little Cayman. These three islands occupy around 250 km2 of land area. In this work, historical and recent data were collected and classified to identify and rank the natural and man-made hazards that may potentially affect the Cayman Islands and determine the level of exposure of Grand Cayman to these events. With this purpose, we used the vulnerability assessment methodology developed by the North Caroline Department of Environment and Natural Resources. The different degrees of physical vulnerability for each hazard were graphically interpreted with the aid of maps using a relative scoring system. Spatial maps were generated showing the areas of different levels of exposure to multi-hazards. The more important natural hazard to which the Cayman Islands are exposed is clearly hurricanes. To a lesser degree, the islands may be occasionally exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis. Explosions or leaks of the Airport Texaco Fuel Depot and the fuel pipeline at Grand Cayman are the most significant man-made hazards. Our results indicate that there are four areas in Grand Cayman with various levels of exposure to natural and man-made hazards: The North Sound, Little Sound and Eastern West Bay (Area 1) show a very high level of exposure; The Central Mangroves, Central Bodden Town, Central George Town and the West Bay (Area 2) have high level of exposure; The Northwestern West Bay, Western Georgetown-Bodden Town, and East End-North Side (Area 3) are under moderate levels of exposure. The remainder of the island shows low exposure (Area 4). It is important to underline that this study presents a first evaluation of the main natural and man-made hazards that may affect the Cayman Islands. The maps generated will be useful tools for emergency managers and policy developers and will increase the overall

  11. Are Global Economic Losses from Natural Hazards Increasing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullan, Caroline; Simic, Milan; Tosco, Antonello; Latchman, Shane

    2016-04-01

    Global society has long been influenced by natural hazards, but it has been widely noted that the economic cost of natural hazards has been rising rapidly over recent decades. This upward trend highlights the increasing exposure of the global economy to natural hazards and the need for society to understand the driving factors to help improve the resilience of communities. However disaster risk is driven by a plethora of factors, including population, wealth, land-use, and demographics. Consider also the natural variability in the frequency and severity of events, climate change, and implementation of resilience policies, and it becomes clear that disaster-risk management is a challenging field. To investigate the apparent upward trend in reported annual economic losses from natural disasters, socioeconomic factors known to influence the magnitude of losses must first be accounted for. Adjustment for these factors, known as loss normalisation, aims to estimate the losses sustained if historical events were to impact present day society. We have undertaken a detailed assessment of global economic losses from natural disasters for the period 1995 through 2013. Although the studied time-period is relatively short, expanding the investigated period would not necessarily produce more reliable insights owing to the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate economic loss estimates for earlier periods and the challenge of finding consistent and reliable sources of socioeconomic data for the normalisation process. The results of the study, presented at a global and regional level, appear to suggest that the main driver of perceived increase in economic losses over the last ~20 years was the development of nations' economies (i.e. increase in population and wealth/GDP) and not in the natural hazards themselves. As populations all over the world migrate into areas of higher natural hazards regions (e.g. coastal areas or floodplain zones) and global wealth continues to

  12. Climate change and natural hazards in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.; Eichelberger, L. P.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is motivating much of the science research in the Arctic. Natural hazards, which have always been with us and can be influenced by climate, also pose a serious threat to sustainability of Arctic communities, the Native cultures they support, and the health and wellbeing of their residents. These are themes of the US Chairship of the Arctic Council. For example, repetitive floods, often associated with spring ice jams, are a particularly severe problem for river communities. People live near rivers because access to food, water and river transportation support an indigenous subsistence lifestyle. Some settlement sites for Indigenous Peoples were mandated by distant authorities without regard to natural hazards, in Alaska no less than in other countries. Thus bad policy of the past casts a long shadow into the future. Remote communities are subject to multiple challenges, including natural hazards, access to education, and limited job opportunities. These intersect to reproduce structural vulnerability and have over time created a need for substantial support from government. In the past 40 years, the themes of "sustainability" and "self reliance" have become prominent strategies for governance at both state and local levels. Communities now struggle to demonstrate their sustainability while grappling with natural hazards and chronic poverty. In the extreme, the shifting of responsibility to resource-poor communities can be called "structural violence". Accepting the status quo can mean living without sanitation and reliable water supply, leading to the high observed rates of disease not normally encountered in developed countries. Many of the efforts to address climate change and natural hazards are complementary: monitoring the environment; forecasting extreme events; and community-based participatory research and planning. Natural disaster response is complementary to the Arctic Council's Search and Rescue (SAR) initiative, differing in that those

  13. Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

    2012-12-01

    Familiarity with a given population's perception of natural hazards and the threats they present is vital for the development of effective education prior to and emergency management response after a natural event. While much work has been done in other active tectonic regions, perception of natural hazards and risk among Pacific Northwest (PNW) residents is poorly constrained. The objective of this work is to assess the current perception of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risk in the PNW, and to better understand the factors which drive the public's behavior concerning preparedness and response. We developed a survey to assess the knowledge of natural hazards common to the region, their perception of risk concerning these hazards, and their level of preparedness should a natural hazard occur. The survey was distributed to University of Washington students and employees via an internet link as part of a class project in 'Living with Volcanoes' (ESS 106) in March of 2012, which returned more than 900 responses. The UW student population was chosen as our first "population" to assess because of their uniqueness as a large, semi-transient population (typical residence of less than 5 years). Only 50% of participants correctly reported their proximity to an active volcano, indicating either lack of knowledge of active volcanoes in the region or poor spatial awareness. When asked which area were most at risk to lahars, respondents indicated that all areas close to the hazard source, including topographically elevated regions, were at a higher risk than more distal and low-lying localities that are also at high risk, indicating a lack of knowledge concerning the topographic dependency of this hazard. Participants perceived themselves to be able to cope better with an earthquake than a volcanic event. This perception may be due to lack of knowledge of volcanic hazards and their extent or due to a false sense of security concerning earthquakes fostered by regular

  14. Wicked Problems in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Steckler, M. S.; Rundle, J. B.; Dixon, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    Social scientists have defined "wicked" problems that are "messy, ill-defined, more complex than we fully grasp, and open to multiple interpretations based on one's point of view... No solution to a wicked problem is permanent or wholly satisfying, which leaves every solution open to easy polemical attack." These contrast with "tame" problems in which necessary information is available and solutions - even if difficult and expensive - are straightforward to identify and execute. Updating the U.S.'s aging infrastructure is a tame problem, because what is wrong and how to fix it are clear. In contrast, addressing climate change is a wicked problem because its effects are uncertain and the best strategies to address them are unclear. An analogous approach can be taken to natural hazard problems. In tame problems, we have a good model of the process, good information about past events, and data implying that the model should predict future events. In such cases, we can make a reasonable assessment of the hazard that can be used to develop mitigation strategies. Earthquake hazard mitigation for San Francisco is a relatively tame problem. We understand how the earthquakes result from known plate motions, have information about past earthquakes, and have geodetic data implying that future similar earthquakes will occur. As a result, it is straightforward to develop and implement mitigation strategies. However, in many cases, hazard assessment and mitigation is a wicked problem. How should we prepare for a great earthquake on plate boundaries where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How should we assess the hazard within plates, for example in the New Madrid seismic zone, where large earthquakes have occurred but we do not understand their causes and geodetic data show no strain accumulating? How can we assess the hazard and make sensible policy when the recurrence of

  15. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

  16. From paper to Facebook, travelling trough the natural hazards divulgation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria-Carmen

    2010-05-01

    In a society so greatly influenced by the media as ours, and with new global meteorological risks such as climate change, scientists should work together with the media to make their research known to the general public, as, in its turn, to use the media as source of information. Press articles can be used as indicator to obtain an indirect estimation of the natural risks in order to built data bases on this matter (Llasat et al, 2009a). The media, and particularly the press, can also be used to estimate the social perception of natural risks and climate change (Tábara, 2008): usually the press reflects the dominant patterns and beliefs in a particular society, and, in its turn, has a strong influence on the collective construction of the risk perception, independently of the multiple individual perceptions and experiences of the same event or risk. Usually press focuses more on the vulnerability to risks and less on the actual danger, and it is necessary to assess in each case all the situational factors involved in the publication of a news item, since the spatial and temporal location of the event need to be taken into account too (Llasat-Botija et al., 2007). Then, when public perception and the natural risk evolution are analyzed through the press information, it is necessary to distinguish between the different factors that could be involved in it and their potential changes. Particularly, a change in the socio-cultural paradigm approach and in the mass media strategy should be taken into account. These changes in the communication strategy have also to be taken into account when we consider the different tools used for sensibilization and education in front of natural risks. Starting from conferences, seminars or demonstrations (Malamud, 2008), web pages (Llasat-Botija et al, 2008), educative dossiers and videos, in the recent years new tools in internet are increasing in importance. This is the case of social networks, blogs, you-tube, distribution lists

  17. Geophysical Tools, Challenges and Perspectives Related to Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fucugauchi, J. U.

    2013-05-01

    In the coming decades a changing climate and natural hazards will likely increase the vulnerability of agricultural and other food production infrastructures, posing increasing treats to industrialized and developing economies. While food security concerns affect us globally, the huge differences among countries in stocks, population size, poverty levels, economy, technologic development, transportation, health care systems and basic infrastructure will pose a much larger burden on populations in the developing and less developed world. In these economies, increase in the magnitude, duration and frequency of droughts, floods, hurricanes, rising sea levels, heat waves, thunderstorms, freezing events and other phenomena will pose severe costs on the population. For this presentation, we concentrate on a geophysical perspective of the problems, tools available, challenges and short and long-term perspectives. In many instances, a range of natural hazards are considered as unforeseen catastrophes, which suddenly affect without warning, resulting in major losses. Although the forecasting capacity in the different situations arising from climate change and natural hazards is still limited, there are a range of tools available to assess scenarios and forecast models for developing and implementing better mitigation strategies and prevention programs. Earth observation systems, geophysical instrumental networks, satellite observatories, improved understanding of phenomena, expanded global and regional databases, geographic information systems, higher capacity for computer modeling, numerical simulations, etc provide a scientific-technical framework for developing strategies. Hazard prevention and mitigation programs will result in high costs globally, however major costs and challenges concentrate on the less developed economies already affected by poverty, famines, health problems, social inequalities, poor infrastructure, low life expectancy, high population growth

  18. Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2017 in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2017 in the United States This National Weather Service (NWS) report ... and the National Climatic Data Center compiled this Summary of U.S. Natural Hazard Statistics from Storm Data, ...

  19. Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

    2010-01-01

    Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

  20. TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT FOR NATURAL EVENT HAZARDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    KRIPPS, L.J.

    2006-01-01

    This technical basis document was developed to support the documented safety analysis (DSA) and describes the risk binning process and the technical basis for assigning risk bins for natural event hazard (NEH)-initiated accidents. The purpose of the risk binning process is to determine the need for safety-significant structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls for a given representative accident or represented hazardous conditions based on an evaluation of the frequency and consequence. Note that the risk binning process is not applied to facility workers, because all facility worker hazardous conditions are considered for safety-significant SSCs and/or TSR-level controls

  1. Environmental legislation as the legal framework for mitigating natural hazards in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrido, Jesús; Arana, Estanislao; Jiménez Soto, Ignacio; Delgado, José

    2015-04-01

    In Spain, the socioeconomic losses due to natural hazards (floods, earthquakes or landslides) are considerable, and the indirect costs associated with them are rarely considered because they are very difficult to evaluate. The prevention of losses due to natural hazards is more economic and efficient through legislation and spatial planning rather than through structural measures, such as walls, anchorages or structural reinforcements. However, there isn't a Spanish natural hazards law and national and regional sector legislation make only sparse mention of them. After 1978, when the Spanish Constitution was enacted, the Autonomous Communities (Spanish regions) were able to legislate according to the different competences (urban planning, environment or civil protection), which were established in the Constitution. In the 1990's, the Civil Protection legislation (national law and regional civil protection tools) dealt specifically with natural hazards (floods, earthquakes and volcanoes), but this was before any soil, seismic or hydrological studies were recommended in the national sector legislation. On the other hand, some Autonomous Communities referred to natural hazards in the Environmental Impact Assessment legislation (EIA) and also in the spatial and urban planning legislation and tools. The National Land Act, enacted in 1998, established, for the first time, that those lands exposed to natural hazards should be classified as non-developable. The Spanish recast text of the Land Act, enacted by Royal Legislative Decree 2/2008, requires that a natural hazards map be included in the Environmental Sustainability Report (ESR), which is compulsory for all master plans, according to the provisions set out by Act 9/2006, known as Spanish Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). Consequently, the environmental legislation, after the aforementioned transposition of the SEA European Directive 2001/42/EC, is the legal framework to prevent losses due to natural hazards

  2. Natural Hazards Observer: Volume 26, Number 1, September 2001

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    The Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center was founded to strengthen communication among researchers and the individuals and organizations concerned with mitigating natural disasters...

  3. Natural Hazards Observer. Volume 17. Number 4, March 2003

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2003-01-01

    The NATURAL HAZARDS RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS INFORMATION CENTER was founded to strengthen communication among researchers and the individuals and organizations concerned with mitigating natural disasters...

  4. Processing LiDAR Data to Predict Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairweather, Ian; Crabtree, Robert; Hager, Stacey

    2008-01-01

    ELF-Base and ELF-Hazards (wherein 'ELF' signifies 'Extract LiDAR Features' and 'LiDAR' signifies 'light detection and ranging') are developmental software modules for processing remote-sensing LiDAR data to identify past natural hazards (principally, landslides) and predict future ones. ELF-Base processes raw LiDAR data, including LiDAR intensity data that are often ignored in other software, to create digital terrain models (DTMs) and digital feature models (DFMs) with sub-meter accuracy. ELF-Hazards fuses raw LiDAR data, data from multispectral and hyperspectral optical images, and DTMs and DFMs generated by ELF-Base to generate hazard risk maps. Advanced algorithms in these software modules include line-enhancement and edge-detection algorithms, surface-characterization algorithms, and algorithms that implement innovative data-fusion techniques. The line-extraction and edge-detection algorithms enable users to locate such features as faults and landslide headwall scarps. Also implemented in this software are improved methodologies for identification and mapping of past landslide events by use of (1) accurate, ELF-derived surface characterizations and (2) three LiDAR/optical-data-fusion techniques: post-classification data fusion, maximum-likelihood estimation modeling, and hierarchical within-class discrimination. This software is expected to enable faster, more accurate forecasting of natural hazards than has previously been possible.

  5. Public-private provision of protection measures against natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2009-04-01

    Natural hazards threaten human lives as well as economic values of a society. Due to an increasing population density, augmenting property holdings in congested areas as well as higher frequencies of catastrophic events, the damage potential associated with natural hazards is growing. In order to safeguard societal assets against this threat, active and passive protection measures can be established. While passive protection measures provide for this type of risk by means of thorough land use planning, active protection measures aim at improving safety through technical or biological protective systems and structures. However, these provisions are costly and need to be handled prudentially. In most European countries protection measures against natural hazards are provided by the public. Specific governmental funds have been set up for the establishment of preventive systems as well as for damage compensation payments after the occurrence of catastrophic events. Though, additional capital is urgently needed in order to facilitate the realisation of all necessary projects in this field and to provide for maximal safety. One potential solution for such financial deficiencies can be found in Public Private Partnerships (PPP). PPPs have been implemented as attractive concepts for the funding of diverse projects in the fields of e.g. road construction, municipal, health and social services. In principle, they could also provide alternative funding solutions for the establishment of crucial protective infrastructure in respect of natural hazards, adding private financial means to the currently available public funds. Thereby, the entire capacities for catastrophe funding could be enhanced. Beside PPPs, also alternative funding mechanisms such as the emission of catastrophe bonds, contingent credit lines or leasing arrangements may enhance available capacities for the financing of protection measures. This contribution discusses innovative solutions for the funding of

  6. Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

    2009-04-01

    Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones

  7. The Impact Hazard in the Context of Other Natural Hazards and Predictive Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, C. R.

    1998-09-01

    The hazard due to impact of asteroids and comets has been recognized as analogous, in some ways, to other infrequent but consequential natural hazards (e.g. floods and earthquakes). Yet, until recently, astronomers and space agencies have felt no need to do what their colleagues and analogous agencies must do in order the assess, quantify, and communicate predictions to those with a practical interest in the predictions (e.g. public officials who must assess the threats, prepare for mitigation, etc.). Recent heightened public interest in the impact hazard, combined with increasing numbers of "near misses" (certain to increase as Spaceguard is implemented) requires that astronomers accept the responsibility to place their predictions and assessments in terms that may be appropriately considered. I will report on preliminary results of a multi-year GSA/NCAR study of "Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making" in which I have represented the impact hazard, while others have treated earthquakes, floods, weather, global climate change, nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, etc. The impact hazard presents an end-member example of a natural hazard, helping those dealing with more prosaic issues to learn from an extreme. On the other hand, I bring to the astronomical community some lessons long adopted in other cases: the need to understand the policy purposes of impact predictions, the need to assess potential societal impacts, the requirements to very carefully assess prediction uncertainties, considerations of potential public uses of the predictions, awareness of ethical considerations (e.g. conflicts of interest) that affect predictions and acceptance of predictions, awareness of appropriate means for publicly communicating predictions, and considerations of the international context (especially for a hazard that knows no national boundaries).

  8. Three consecutive years of road closures due to natural hazards in the Weisstannen valley, Canton of St-Gallen, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voumard, Jérémie; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2017-04-01

    The Weisstannen small alpine valley located in the Canton of St-Gallen, Switzerland, has been affected by four different natural hazards these three last years. Its unique access road has been cut off height times during this period: by an earth slide in January 2014, by three debris flows in August 2015, by one debris flow in September 2016, by two floods in June and July 2016 and by a rockfall in May 2016. Although the valley is sparsely populated, 240 people have been affected by the height road closures due to these events. In addition to road damages, several buildings, of which a restaurant (with EUR 190'000 damages) and an animal shelter, have been damaged. In Switzerland, some roads of 15 communes have been affected by natural hazards at least three times in five years (2012-2016). Then the Weisstannen valley is not an exception at the communal level. However, it is the only valley whose unique access was cut off three consecutive years. With these repeated events, the population of the valley does not understand how possible it is to end up in such a situation in a country accustomed to natural hazards. In the media and social media, people do not hide their irritation regarding to this situation: "Have the authorities failed to take into account natural dangers despite of the 4.7 million Euro allocated for a flood protection project? Who is responsible of those repeated damages? Why the situation did not improve after the events of the first year and then the second year? ". In the present work, we try to shed the light on this peculiar case analysing the causes of road closures, studying meteorological, topographical, hydrological and geological data for each events. The effectiveness of the new protective measures built between the events are assessed, as the future planned protectives measures. Road closures consequences on the population and the economy are also estimated. Finally, we estimate the probability of having new road closures in the

  9. Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucy; Bernknopf, Richard; Cannon, Susan; Cox, Dale A.; Gaydos, Len; Keeley, Jon; Kohler, Monica; Lee, Homa; Ponti, Daniel; Ross, Stephanie L.; Schwarzbach, Steven; Shulters, Michael; Ward, A. Wesley; Wein, Anne

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires.Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies.Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning

  10. Procedure for Prioritization of Natural Phenomena Hazards Evaluations for Existing DOE Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conrads, T.J., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-05-07

    This document describes the procedure to be used for the prioritization for natural phenomena hazards evaluations of existing DOE facilities in conformance with DOE Order 5480.28, `Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation.`

  11. Technical basis document for natural event hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CARSON, D.M.

    2003-01-01

    This technical basis document was developed to support the Tank Farms Documented Safety Analysis (DSA), and describes the risk binning process and the technical basis for assigning risk bins for natural event hazards (NEH)-initiated representative accident and associated represented hazardous conditions. The purpose of the risk binning process is to determine the need for safety-significant structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls for a given representative accident or represented hazardous conditions based on an evaluation of the frequency and consequence. Note that the risk binning process is not applied to facility workers, because all facility worker hazardous conditions are considered for safety-significant SSCs and/or TSR-level controls. Determination of the need for safety-class SSCs was performed in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for US Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', as described in this report

  12. Natural hazard management and sustainable development: a questionable link

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Andres

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the nature of the possible link between natural hazards and sustainable development through a study of the area to the south of Grenoble in the French Alps, a zone subject to two major natural hazards: the extensive landslide known as the "Séchilienne Ruins" and flooding from the Romanche and Drac rivers. More specifically, the study analyzes the assumed transition from the management of natural hazards to the sustainable management of an area subject to natural hazards and is divided into three stages. Thus the link between natural hazards and sustainability is considered as: 1 an association that is entirely relative, 2 one that is logical but limited in the field, 3 one that is above all indirect. The interactions identified between risk and sustainability, in legislative as well as ideal and operational terms, are found to be complex and not necessarily explicit. They depend in particular on the juxtaposition of multiple territorial scales or spatial boundaries (national to local that bring into conflict the different strategies of the actors involved – from decision-makers to technical specialists.Cet article questionne la nature du lien envisageable entre risque naturel et développement durable à travers l’étude du territoire du sud grenoblois, soumis notamment à deux aléas naturels majeurs : le mouvement de terrain de grande ampleur dit des « Ruines de Séchilienne » et les probables crues de la Romanche et du Drac. Trois étapes structurent cette réflexion questionnant la transition supposée entre une gestion des risques naturels et une gestion durable des territoires soumis aux risques naturels : une association toute relative, un lien logique mais limité sur le terrain, une relation surtout indirecte. Les interactions identifiées, en termes législatifs mais aussi idéels et opérationnels, entre risque et durabilité se révèlent ainsi complexes et ne sont pas forcément explicites ; elles d

  13. Desicion Support System For Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyazilov, E.

    2009-04-01

    recommendations should be reasonable. To resolve the above problems or to make them less significant it is necessary to develop decision support systems (DSS). DMs need not tables with initial data, analytical, forecasting and climatic information, but messages containing warnings on critical value accidence, information on probability of hazards, information on potential losses, and information on hazardous impacts and recommendations on decision making. DSS can do the following: take into account impacts on specific points and on the total area under consideration; allow for the effects of the environment on economic entities (objects) in any geographical region to be analyzed; distinguish impacts and changes caused both by different phenomena and by their combination; signal when objects are or can be in adverse environmental conditions, e.g. in the area affected by fog, storm, tropical cyclone or in the area where the probability of hazardous ice events is very high, etc. The main component of DSS is a knowledge base based on the following concept: if we know environmental conditions it is possible to predict potential impacts on the economy; if we know impacts it is possible to give a set of recommendations on how to prevent (reduce) losses or how to use natural resources most efficiently. Decision making criteria are safety of people and property, reduction of losses, increase of profit, materials saving, etc. Knowledge base is a set of rules formulated in a formalized way using if, that, else. If "Water level in S.-Petersburg >150 cm" that "To give out warning information "Hazards for building on coastal river Neva is possible" and recommendations "The valuable goods carry out in second floor" else "To switch another rule". To have a knowledge base in place it is necessary to: develop tools of identifying and getting knowledge from experts; arrange the information flow from available information systems (operational data, analyses, forecasts, climatic information) through

  14. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  15. Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the DOE Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snow, Robert L.; Ross, Steven B.

    2011-09-15

    The purpose of this review is to assess the need for updating Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) assessments for the DOE's Hanford Site, as required by DOE Order 420.1B Chapter IV, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, based on significant changes in state-of-the-art NPH assessment methodology or site-specific information. This review is an update and expansion to the September 2010 review of PNNL-19751, Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas (Non-Seismic).

  16. Modeling of Marine Natural Hazards in the Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahibo, Narcisse; Nikolkina, Irina; Pelinovsky, Efim

    2010-05-01

    The Caribbean Sea countries are often affected by various marine natural hazards: hurricanes and cyclones, tsunamis and flooding. The historical data of marine natural hazards for the Lesser Antilles and specially, for Guadeloupe are presented briefly. Numerical simulation of several historical tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea (1755 Lisbon trans-Atlantic tsunami, 1867 Virgin Island earthquake tsunami, 2003 Montserrat volcano tsunami) are performed within the framework of the nonlinear-shallow theory. Numerical results demonstrate the importance of the real bathymetry variability with respect to the direction of propagation of tsunami wave and its characteristics. The prognostic tsunami wave height distribution along the Caribbean Coast is computed using various forms of seismic and hydrodynamics sources. These results are used to estimate the far-field potential for tsunami hazards at coastal locations in the Caribbean Sea. The nonlinear shallow-water theory is also applied to model storm surges induced by tropical cyclones, in particular, cyclones "Lilli" in 2002 and "Dean" in 2007. Obtained results are compared with observed data. The numerical models have been tested against known analytical solutions of the nonlinear shallow-water wave equations. Obtained results are described in details in [1-7]. References [1] N. Zahibo and E. Pelinovsky, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 1, 221 (2001). [2] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, A. Yalciner, A. Kurkin, A. Koselkov and A. Zaitsev, Oceanologica Acta, 26, 609 (2003). [3] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, A. Kurkin and A. Kozelkov, Science Tsunami Hazards. 21, 202 (2003). [4] E. Pelinovsky, N. Zahibo, P. Dunkley, M. Edmonds, R. Herd, T. Talipova, A. Kozelkov and I. Nikolkina, Science of Tsunami Hazards, 22, 44 (2004). [5] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, E. Okal, A. Yalciner, C. Kharif, T. Talipova and A. Kozelkov, Science of Tsunami Hazards, 23, 25 (2005). [6] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, T. Talipova, A. Rabinovich, A. Kurkin and I

  17. WHC natural phenomena hazards mitigation implementation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conrads, T.J.

    1996-09-11

    Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature which pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment. Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado),snow, flooding, volcanic ashfall, and lightning strike are examples of NPH at Hanford. It is the policy of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to design, construct and operate DOE facilitiesso that workers, the public and the environment are protected from NPH and other hazards. During 1993 DOE, Richland Operations Office (RL) transmitted DOE Order 5480.28, ``Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation,`` to Westinghouse Hanford COmpany (WHC) for compliance. The Order includes rigorous new NPH criteria for the design of new DOE facilities as well as for the evaluation and upgrade of existing DOE facilities. In 1995 DOE issued Order 420.1, ``Facility Safety`` which contains the same NPH requirements and invokes the same applicable standards as Order 5480.28. It will supersede Order 5480.28 when an in-force date for Order 420.1 is established through contract revision. Activities will be planned and accomplished in four phases: Mobilization; Prioritization; Evaluation; and Upgrade. The basis for the graded approach is the designation of facilities/structures into one of five performance categories based upon safety function, mission and cost. This Implementation Plan develops the program for the Prioritization Phase, as well as an overall strategy for the implemention of DOE Order 5480.2B.

  18. Natural radioactivity and radiation situation in Mangystau Oblast and Western Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadyrzhanov, K. K.; Kuterbekov, K. A.; Lukashenko, S. N.; Glushchenko, V. N.; Kijatkina, N. G.; Morenko, V. S.; Poleshko, A. N.

    2004-01-01

    When performing radio-ecological investigations and developing measures for lowering radiation risks for inhabited localities and territories subjected to impact of radiation-hazardous objects (RHO) one should pay special attention to the cases when several RHO's of different type contribute simultaneously into radiation situation in a region. A prominent example is the Aktau city in Mangystau oblast of Western Kazakhstan; radiation situation there has been formed under such factors as presence of Mangyshlak Atomic Energy Combine with BN-350 reactor facilities, sites of underground nuclear explosions at Plato Ustyurt, uranium extracting and processing facilities and a bunch of operating there oil extracting companies. Previous investigations showed that situation in the city and its vicinity is quite complex and requires vast corrective measures to be immediately introduced. At the same time, separate narrow-scale programs related to improvement of radio-ecological situation in the region funded from different sources are uncoordinated and are not very effective for they have been developed without taking into account all the possible sources and mechanisms of radioactive contamination of the environment. In order to improve effectiveness of the measures aimed at lowering radiation risks it is necessary to perform preliminary investigations and estimate contributions from each RHO in the region. Institute of Nuclear Physics of National Nuclear Center (INP NNC RK) has been actively involved in a set of research and environment-preventing measures in Mangystau oblast for many years. Among the most noticeable projects on investigation of radiation situation at the territory of Mangystau oblast where INP took part or leaded are the following: assessment of radiation situation in places of underground nuclear explosions at Plato Ustyurt; over all investigation of sanitary-protection zone and monitoring zone of BN-350 reactor facilities; over-all investigation of

  19. Plan for Prevention of Natural Hazards in Urban Areas. Case of the City of Constantine (Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ykhlef Boubakeur

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Natural hazards are caused by different phenomena: landslides, earthquakes, floods etc. All the manifestations of forces of nature are called phenomena. We are speaking then of natural risks when these problems are threatening, with varying degrees, human activities, causing significant damage to human life, property and the environment. The need to consider natural hazards in land use planning tasks has become a major concern. During these past years, Algeria has been hit by frequent natural disasters, with the most recent ones endangering the lives of people and causing priceless damage, faced with such a situation the company of adequate measures, capable of exercising effective prevention, is essential. In addition to the seismic risk, for which prevention still needs to be improved, Algeria must also face gravity processes such as landslides. By their suddenness, they can put people in danger and destroy entire buildings involving the evacuation of entire neighbourhoods where the financial impact is significant on the state budget and local government. The main interest of this paper is the feasibility of a plan for prevention of natural disasters related to landslides based on geological maps, topography, hydrogeological and on existing buildings and vulnerability, and eventually lead to a Zoning risk that would be considered for inclusion in the Master Plan of Urban Planning and Land Use Plan and provide support for decisions taken by local authorities for the selection of sites.

  20. Language of the Earth: Exploring Natural Hazards through a Literary Anthology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malamud, B. D.; Rhodes, F. H. T.

    2009-04-01

    This paper explores natural hazards teaching and communications through the use of a literary anthology of writings about the earth aimed at non-experts. Teaching natural hazards in high-school and university introductory Earth Science and Geography courses revolves mostly around lectures, examinations, and laboratory demonstrations/activities. Often the results of such a course are that a student 'memorizes' the answers, and is penalized when they miss a given fact [e.g., "You lost one point because you were off by 50 km/hr on the wind speed of an F5 tornado."] Although facts and general methodologies are certainly important when teaching natural hazards, it is a strong motivation to a student's assimilation of, and enthusiasm for, this knowledge, if supplemented by writings about the Earth. In this paper, we discuss a literary anthology which we developed [Language of the Earth, Rhodes, Stone, Malamud, Wiley-Blackwell, 2008] which includes many descriptions about natural hazards. Using first- and second-hand accounts of landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and volcanic eruptions, through the writings of McPhee, Gaskill, Voltaire, Austin, Cloos, and many others, hazards become 'alive', and more than 'just' a compilation of facts and processes. Using short excerpts such as these, or other similar anthologies, of remarkably written accounts and discussions about natural hazards results in 'dry' facts becoming more than just facts. These often highly personal viewpoints of our catostrophic world, provide a useful supplement to a student's understanding of the turbulent world in which we live.

  1. Protection of the human race against natural hazards (asteroids, comets, volcanoes, earthquakes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Joseph V.

    1985-10-01

    Although we justifiably worry about the danger of nuclear war to civilization, and perhaps even to survival of the human race, we tend to consider natural hazards (e.g., comets, asteroids, volcanoes, earthquakes) as unavoidable acts of God. In any human lifetime, a truly catastrophic natural event is very unlikely, but ultimately one will occur. For the first time in human history we have sufficient technical skills to begin protection of Earth from some natural hazards. We could decide collectively throughout the world to reassign resources: in particular, reduction of nuclear and conventional weapons to a less dangerous level would allow concomitant increase of international programs for detection and prevention of natural hazards. Worldwide cooperation to mitigate natural hazards might help psychologically to lead us away from the divisive bickering that triggers wars. Future generations could hail us as pioneers of peace and safety rather than curse us as agents of death and destruction.

  2. Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

    2017-03-01

    This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of

  3. A Possible Paradigm for the Mitigation of the Adverse Impacts of Natural Hazards in the Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswathanarayana, U.

    2001-05-01

    The proneness of a country or region to a given natural hazard depends upon its geographical location, physiography, geological and structural setting, landuse/landcover situation, and biophysical and socioeconomic environments (e.g. cyclones and floods in Bangladesh, earthquakes in Turkey, drought in Sub-Saharan Africa). While the natural hazards themselves cannot be prevented, it is possible to mitigate their adverse effects, by a knowledge-based, environmentally-sustainable approach, involving the stakeholder communities: (i) by being prepared: on the basis of the understanding of the land conditions which are prone to a given hazard and the processes which could culminate in damage to life and property (e.g. planting of dense-rooted vegetation belts to protect against landslides in the earthquake-prone areas), (ii) by avoiding improper anthropogenic activities that may exacerbate a hazard (e.g. deforestation accentuating the floods and droughts), and (iii) by putting a hazard to a beneficial use, where possible (groundwater recharging of flood waters), etc. Mitigation strategies need to be custom-made for each country/region by integrating the biophysical and socioeconomic components. The proposed paradigm is illustrated in respect of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs), which is based on the adoption of three approaches: (i) Typology approach, involving the interpretation of remotely sensed data, to predict (say) temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, (ii) "black box" approach, whereby the potential environmental consequences of an EWE are projected on the basis of previously known case histories, and (iii) Information Technology approach, to translate advanced technical information in the form of "virtual" do-it-yourself steps understandable to lay public.

  4. DOE natural phenomenal hazards design and evaluation criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, R.C.; Nelson, T.A.; Short, S.A.; Kennedy, R.P.; Chander, H.; Hill, J.R.; Kimball, J.K.

    1994-10-01

    It is the policy of the Department of Energy (DOE) to design, construct, and operate DOE facilities so that workers, the general public, and the environment are protected from the impacts of natural phenomena hazards (NPH). Furthermore, DOE has established explicit goals of acceptable risk for NPH performance. As a result, natural phenomena hazard (earthquake, extreme wind, and flood) design and evaluation criteria for DOE facilities have been developed based on target probabilistic performance goals. These criteria include selection of design/evaluation NPH input from probabilistic hazard curves combined with commonly practiced deterministic response evaluation methods and acceptance criteria with controlled levels of conservatism. For earthquake considerations, conservatism is intentionally introduced in specification of material strengths and capacities, in the allowance of limited inelastic behavior, and by a seismic scale factor. Criteria have been developed following a graded approach for several performance goals ranging from that appropriate for normal-use facilities to that appropriate for facilities involving hazardous or critical operations. Performance goals are comprised of qualitative expressions of acceptable behavior and of target quantitative probabilities that acceptable limits of behavior are maintained. The criteria are simple procedures but have a rigorous basis. This paper addresses DOE seismic design and evaluation criteria

  5. Exploration of resilience assessments for natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, Anna; Han, Dawei; Champneys, Alan

    2017-04-01

    The occurrence of extreme events due to natural hazards is difficult to predict. Extreme events are stochastic in nature, there is a lack of long term data on their occurrence, and there are still gaps in our understanding of their physical processes. This difficulty in prediction will be exacerbated by climate change and human activities. Yet traditional risk assessments measure risk as the probability of occurrence of a hazard, multiplied by the consequences of the hazard occurring, which ignores the recovery process. In light of the increasing concerns on disaster risks and the related system recovery, resilience assessments are being used as an approach which complements and builds on traditional risk assessments and management. In mechanical terms, resilience refers to the amount of energy per unit volume that a material can absorb while maintaining its ability to return to its original shape. Resilience was first applied in the fields of psychology and ecology, and more recently has been used in areas such as social sciences, economics, and engineering. A common metaphor for understanding resilience is the stability landscape. The landscape consists of a surface of interconnected basins, where each basin represents different states of a system, which is a point on the stability landscape. The resilience of the system is its capacity and tendency to remain within a particular basin. This depends on the topology of the landscape, on the system's current position, and on its reaction to different shocks and stresses. In practical terms, resilience assessments have been conducted for various purposes in different sectors. These assessments vary in their required inputs, the methodologies applied, and the output they produce. Some measures used for resilience assessments are hazard independent. These focus on the intrinsic capabilities of a system, for example the insurance coverage of a community, or the buffer capacity of a water storage reservoir. Other

  6. Real-time decision support in the face of emerging natural hazard events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anders, Annett

    and losses. Motivated by these factors, the present thesis aims at developing a framework for the decision support system for real-time decision making in emerging natural hazard events. The thesis also demonstrates the implementation of the developed framework to illustrate its use and advantages...... turbines, agricultural facilities and offshore platforms. Operators of these facilities are often required to make decisions regarding the continued operations of their facilities in extreme storm events. These decisions, which in the present thesis are called real-time decisions, are often made by a small...... number of people in extremely stressful situations, ad-hoc relying on personal experiences of decision makers. On the other hand, recent advancements of information technology potentially make it possible for decision makers to access various types of information in real-time. Remarkable examples...

  7. The effect of natural disturbances on the risk from hydrogeomorphic hazards under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheidl, Christian; Thaler, Thomas; Seidl, Rupert; Rammer, Werner; Kohl, Bernhard; Markart, Gerhard

    2017-04-01

    Recent storm events in Austria show once more how floods, sediment transport processes and debris flows constitute a major threat in alpine regions with a high density of population and an increasing spatial development. As protection forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from such hydrogeomorphic processes. However, research on future climate conditions, with an expected increase of the global average surface temperature of 3-5°C by 2100, compared to the first decade of the 20th century, raises a number of open questions for a sustainable and improved hazard management in mountain forests. For Europe, for instance, a climate-induced increase in forest disturbances like wildfire, wind, and insect's outbreaks is highly likely for the coming decades. Especially in protection forests, future scenarios of such climate induced natural disturbances and their impact on the protective effect remain an unresolved issue. Combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering our project uses an integral approach to simulate possible effects of natural disturbances on hydrogeomorphic hazards in the perspective of future protection forest developments. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand) we conduct an ensemble of forest landscape simulations, assessing the impact of future changes in natural disturbance regimes in four selected torrential catchments. These catchments are situated in two different forest growth areas. Drainage rate simulations are based on the conceptual hydrological model (ZEMOKOST), whereas simulations of the effect of forest disturbances on hillslope erosion processes are conducted by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Beside process based simulations, we also emphasis to identify the risk perception and adaptive capacity to mitigate a probable loss of protection functions in forests. For this reason, a postal survey among

  8. Designing Effective Natural Hazards Preparedness Communications: Factors that Influence Perceptions and Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Parodi, G.; Fischhoff, B.

    2012-12-01

    Even though most people believe that natural hazards preparation is important for mitigating damage to their homes and basic survival in the aftermath of a disaster, few actually disaster-proof their homes, create plans, or obtain supplies recommended by agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Several observational studies suggest that socio-demographic characteristics such as income and psychological characteristics such as self-efficacy affect whether or not an individual takes action to prepare for a natural hazard. These studies, however, only suggest that these characteristics may play a role. There has been little research that systematically investigates how these characteristics play a role in people's perceptions of recommended preparatory activities and decisions to perform them. Therefore, in Study 1, we explore people's perceptions of natural hazards preparedness measures on four dimensions: time, cost, helpfulness, and sense of preparedness. We further investigate if these responses vary by the socio-demographic and psychological characteristics of self-efficacy, knowledge, and income level. In Study 2, we experimentally test whether people's sense of self-efficacy, as it relates to natural hazards, can be manipulated through exposure to an "easy-and-effective" versus a "hard-and-effective" set of preparation measures. Our findings have implications for the design of natural hazards communication materials for the general public.

  9. Luminescence dating of some historical/pre-historical natural hazards of India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gartia, R.K.

    2008-01-01

    The Indian sub-continent is characterized by host of natural hazards like earthquake, tsunami, cyclones, floods, landslides/mudflows. It is necessary to build-up a database of historical/pre-historical natural hazards for planning scenarios for emergency response to various them. In short, there is a vast scope of providing chronology to hazardous events by using known techniques of dating including luminescence dating which has an excellent window span down from few hundred years to one hundred thousand years. In this work we report the dates of some historical/pre-historical natural hazards of India. In particular we focus on three kinds of natural hazards namely, earthquakes, tsunami, and mudflows. For example of earthquake we cover a historical earthquake of Manipur that created two massive fissures at Kumbi, 25 km from the state capital, Imphal. For pre-historical ones, we cover Assam-Shillong area known for its highest levels of seismicity in India. We demonstrate the evidence of a paleo-tsunami that devastated Mahabalipuram near Chennai. Incidentally, Mahabalipuram was badly affected by the great tsunami of 26th Dec 2004. Finally, luminescence dating technique has been applied to some historical/pre-historical mudflows of Manipur. A recent mudflow on 10th July 2004 damaged more than 90 houses, block National Highway-39, the life-line of Manipur for more than a fort-night. (author)

  10. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    system which integrates the procedures for a complete risk analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS) toolbox, in order to be applied to our testbed, the Alps-crossing corridor of St. Gotthard. The simulation environment is developed within ArcObjects, the development platform for ArcGIS. The topic of ArcObjects usually emerges when users realize that programming ArcObjects can actually reduce the amount of repetitive work, streamline the workflow, and even produce functionalities that are not easily available in ArcGIS. We have adopted Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) for programming ArcObjects. Because VBA is already embedded within ArcMap and ArcCatalog, it is convenient for ArcGIS users to program ArcObjects in VBA. Our tool visualises the obtained data by an analysis of historical data (aerial photo imagery, field surveys, documentation of past events) or an environmental modeling (estimations of the area affected by a given event), and event such as route number and route position and thematic maps. As a result of this step the record appears in WebGIS. The user can select a specific area to overview previous hazards in the region. After performing the analysis, a double click on the visualised infrastructures opens the corresponding results. The constantly updated risk maps show all sites that require more protection against natural hazards. The final goal of our work is to offer a versatile tool for risk analysis which can be applied to different situations. Today our GIS application mainly centralises the documentation of natural hazards. Additionally the system offers information about natural hazard at the Gotthard line. It is very flexible and can be used as a simple program to model the expansion of natural hazards, as a program of quantitatively estimate risks or as a detailed analysis at a municipality level. The tool is extensible and can be expanded with additional modules. The initial results of the experimental case study show how useful a

  11. Physics-Based Simulations of Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Kasey William

    Earthquakes and tsunamis are some of the most damaging natural disasters that we face. Just two recent events, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami and the 2011 Haiti earthquake, claimed more than 400,000 lives. Despite their catastrophic impacts on society, our ability to predict these natural disasters is still very limited. The main challenge in studying the earthquake cycle is the non-linear and multi-scale properties of fault networks. Earthquakes are governed by physics across many orders of magnitude of spatial and temporal scales; from the scale of tectonic plates and their evolution over millions of years, down to the scale of rock fracturing over milliseconds to minutes at the sub-centimeter scale during an earthquake. Despite these challenges, there are useful patterns in earthquake occurrence. One such pattern, the frequency-magnitude relation, relates the number of large earthquakes to small earthquakes and forms the basis for assessing earthquake hazard. However the utility of these relations is proportional to the length of our earthquake records, and typical records span at most a few hundred years. Utilizing physics based interactions and techniques from statistical physics, earthquake simulations provide rich earthquake catalogs allowing us to measure otherwise unobservable statistics. In this dissertation I will discuss five applications of physics-based simulations of natural hazards, utilizing an earthquake simulator called Virtual Quake. The first is an overview of computing earthquake probabilities from simulations, focusing on the California fault system. The second uses simulations to help guide satellite-based earthquake monitoring methods. The third presents a new friction model for Virtual Quake and describes how we tune simulations to match reality. The fourth describes the process of turning Virtual Quake into an open source research tool. This section then focuses on a resulting collaboration using Virtual Quake for a detailed

  12. Design and evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Short, S.A.; McDonald, J.R.; McCann, M.W. Jr.; Murray, R.C.; Hill, J.R.

    1990-06-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel have developed uniform design and evaluation guidelines for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of the guidelines is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The guidelines apply to both new facilities (design) and existing facilities (evaluation, modification, and upgrading). The intended audience is primarily the civil/structural or mechanical engineers conducting the design or evaluation of DOE facilities. The likelihood of occurrence of natural phenomena hazards at each DOE site has been evaluated by the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazard Program. Probabilistic hazard models are available for earthquake, extreme wind/tornado, and flood. Alternatively, site organizations are encouraged to develop site-specific hazard models utilizing the most recent information and techniques available. In this document, performance goals and natural hazard levels are expressed in probabilistic terms, and design and evaluation procedures are presented in deterministic terms. Design/evaluation procedures conform closely to common standard practices so that the procedures will be easily understood by most engineers. Performance goals are expressed in terms of structure or equipment damage to the extent that: (1) the facility cannot function; (2) the facility would need to be replaced; or (3) personnel are endangered. 82 refs., 12 figs., 18 tabs

  13. Design and evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kennedy, R.P. (Structural Mechanics Consulting, Inc., Yorba Linda, CA (USA)); Short, S.A. (ABB Impell Corp., Mission Viejo, CA (USA)); McDonald, J.R. (Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (USA)); McCann, M.W. Jr. (Benjamin (J.R.) and Associates, Inc., Mountain View, CA (USA)); Murray, R.C. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)); Hill, J.R. (USDOE Assistant Secretary for Environment, Safety, and He

    1990-06-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel have developed uniform design and evaluation guidelines for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of the guidelines is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The guidelines apply to both new facilities (design) and existing facilities (evaluation, modification, and upgrading). The intended audience is primarily the civil/structural or mechanical engineers conducting the design or evaluation of DOE facilities. The likelihood of occurrence of natural phenomena hazards at each DOE site has been evaluated by the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazard Program. Probabilistic hazard models are available for earthquake, extreme wind/tornado, and flood. Alternatively, site organizations are encouraged to develop site-specific hazard models utilizing the most recent information and techniques available. In this document, performance goals and natural hazard levels are expressed in probabilistic terms, and design and evaluation procedures are presented in deterministic terms. Design/evaluation procedures conform closely to common standard practices so that the procedures will be easily understood by most engineers. Performance goals are expressed in terms of structure or equipment damage to the extent that: (1) the facility cannot function; (2) the facility would need to be replaced; or (3) personnel are endangered. 82 refs., 12 figs., 18 tabs.

  14. Enhancing international earth science competence in natural hazards through 'geoNatHaz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giardino, Marco; Clague, John J.

    2010-05-01

    "geoNatHaz" is a Transatlantic Exchange Partnership project (TEP 2009-2012) within the framework of the EU-Canada programme for co-operation in higher education, training, and youth. The project is structured to improve knowledge and skills required to assess and manage natural hazards in mountain regions. It provides student exchanges between European and Canadian universities in order to enhance international competence in natural hazard research. The university consortium is led by Simon Fraser University (Canada) and Università degli studi di Torino (Italy). Partner universities include the University of British Columbia, Queen's University, Università di Bologna, Université de Savoie, and the University of Athens. Université de Lausanne (Switzerland) supports the geoNatHaz advisory board through its bilateral agreements with Canadian partner universities. The geoNatHaz project promotes cross-cultural understanding and internationalization of university natural hazard curricula through common lectures, laboratory exercises, and field activities. Forty graduate students from the seven Canadian and European partner universities will benefit from the project between 2009 and 2012. Some students enrolled in graduate-level earth science and geologic engineering programs spend up to five months at the partner universities, taking courses and participating in research teams under the direction of project scientists. Other students engage in short-term (four-week) exchanges involving training in classic natural hazard case-studies in mountain regions of Canada and Europe. Joint courses are delivered in English, but complementary cultural activities are offered in the languages of the host countries. Supporting organizations offer internships and technical and scientific support. Students benefit from work-study programs with industry partners. Supporting organizations include government departments and agencies (Geological Survey of Canada; CNR-IRPI National

  15. Social transformation in transdisciplinary natural hazard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attems, Marie-Sophie; Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Due to annual increases of natural hazard losses, there is a discussion among authorities and communities in Europe on innovative solutions to increase resilience, and consequently, business-as-usual in risk management practices is often questioned. Therefore, the current situation of risk management requests a societal transformation to response adequately and effectively to the new global dynamics. An emerging concept is the implementation of multiple-use mitigation systems against hazards such as floods, avalanches and land-slides. However, one key aspect refers to the involvement of knowledge outside academic research. Therefore, transdisciplinary knowledge can be used to discuss vital factors which are needed to upscale the implementation of multiple-use mitigation measures. The method used in this contribution is an explorative scenario analysis applied in Austria and processes the knowledge gained in transdisciplinary workshops. The scenario analysis combines qualitative data and the quantitative relations in order to generate a set of plausible future outcomes. The goal is to establish a small amount of consistent scenarios, which are efficient and thereby representative as well as significantly different from each other. The results of the discussions among relevant stakeholders within the workshops and a subsequent quantitative analysis, showed that vital variables influencing the multiple use of mitigation measures are the (1) current legislation, (2) risk acceptance among authorities and the public, (3) land-use pressure, (4) the demand for innovative solutions, (5) the available technical standards and possibilities and (6) finally the policy entrepreneurship. Four different scenarios were the final result of the analysis. Concluding the results, in order to make multiple-use alleviations systems possible contemporary settings concerning risk management strategies will have to change in the future. Legislation and thereby current barriers have to be

  16. Designsafe-Ci a Cyberinfrastructure for Natural Hazard Simulation and Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, C.; Rathje, E.; Stanzione, D.; Padgett, J.; Pinelli, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    DesignSafe is the web-based research platform of the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) network that provides the computational tools needed to manage and analyze critical data for natural hazards research, with wind and storm surge related hazards being a primary focus. One of the simulation tools under DesignSafe is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model, a coastal ocean model used in storm surge analysis. ADCIRC is an unstructured, finite element model with high resolution capabilities for studying storm surge impacts, and has long been used in storm surge hind-casting and forecasting. In this talk, we will demonstrate the use of ADCIRC within the DesignSafe platform and its use for forecasting Hurricane Harvey. We will also demonstrate how to analyze, visualize and archive critical storm surge related data within DesignSafe.

  17. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance, (2) Technical support, research and development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight

  18. Historical analysis of US pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or lightning, can initiate accidents in oil and gas pipelines with potentially major consequences on the population or the environment due to toxic releases, fires and explosions. Accidents of this type are also referred to as Natech events. Many major accidents highlight the risk associated with natural-hazard impact on pipelines transporting dangerous substances. For instance, in the USA in 1994, flooding of the San Jacinto River caused the rupture of 8 and the undermining of 29 pipelines by the floodwaters. About 5.5 million litres of petroleum and related products were spilled into the river and ignited. As a results, 547 people were injured and significant environmental damage occurred. Post-incident analysis is a valuable tool for better understanding the causes, dynamics and impacts of pipeline Natech accidents in support of future accident prevention and mitigation. Therefore, data on onshore hazardous-liquid pipeline accidents collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) was analysed. For this purpose, a database-driven incident data analysis system was developed to aid the rapid review and categorization of PHMSA incident reports. Using an automated data-mining process followed by a peer review of the incident records and supported by natural hazard databases and external information sources, the pipeline Natechs were identified. As a by-product of the data-collection process, the database now includes over 800,000 incidents from all causes in industrial and transportation activities, which are automatically classified in the same way as the PHMSA record. This presentation describes the data collection and reviewing steps conducted during the study, provides information on the developed database and data analysis tools, and reports the findings of a statistical analysis of the identified hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in terms of accident dynamics and

  19. Study Of The Risks Arising From Natural Disasters And Hazards On Urban And Intercity Motorways By Using Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    DELİCE, Yavuz

    2015-04-01

    Highways, Located in the city and intercity locations are generally prone to many kind of natural disaster risks. Natural hazards and disasters that may occur firstly from highway project making to construction and operation stages and later during the implementation of highway maintenance and repair stages have to be taken into consideration. And assessment of risks that may occur against adverse situations is very important in terms of project design, construction, operation maintenance and repair costs. Making hazard and natural disaster risk analysis is largely depending on the definition of the likelihood of the probable hazards on the highways. However, assets at risk , and the impacts of the events must be examined and to be rated in their own. With the realization of these activities, intended improvements against natural hazards and disasters will be made with the utilization of Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) method and their effects will be analyzed with further works. FMEA, is a useful method to identify the failure mode and effects depending on the type of failure rate effects priorities and finding the most optimum economic and effective solution. Although relevant measures being taken for the identified risks by this analysis method , it may also provide some information for some public institutions about the nature of these risks when required. Thus, the necessary measures will have been taken in advance in the city and intercity highways. Many hazards and natural disasters are taken into account in risk assessments. The most important of these dangers can be listed as follows; • Natural disasters 1. Meteorological based natural disasters (floods, severe storms, tropical storms, winter storms, avalanches, etc.). 2. Geological based natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, subsidence, sinkholes, etc) • Human originated disasters 1. Transport accidents (traffic accidents), originating from the road surface defects (icing

  20. Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

    2010-05-01

    Valley, NW-Italy), for preventing and recovering measures; 3) geological and geomorphological controlling factors of seismicity, to provide microzonation maps and scenarios for co-seismic response of instable zones (Dronero, NW- Italian Alps); 4) earthquake effects on ground and infrastructures, in order to register early assessment for awareness situations and for compile damage inventories (Asti-Alessandria seismic events, 2000, 2001, 2003). The research results has been able to substantiate early warning models by structuring geodatabases on natural disasters, and to support humanitarian relief and disaster management activities by creating and testing SRG2, a mobile-GIS application for field-data collection on natural hazards and risks.

  1. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basher, Reid

    2006-08-15

    To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

  2. Natural phenomena hazards design and evaluation criteria for Department of Energy Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has issued an Order 420.1 which establishes policy for its facilities in the event of natural phenomena hazards (NPH) along with associated NPH mitigation requirements. This DOE Standard gives design and evaluation criteria for NPH effects as guidance for implementing the NPH mitigation requirements of DOE Order 420.1 and the associated implementation Guides. These are intended to be consistent design and evaluation criteria for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of these criteria is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. These criteria apply to the design of new facilities and the evaluation of existing facilities. They may also be used for modification and upgrading of existing facilities as appropriate. The design and evaluation criteria presented herein control the level of conservatism introduced in the design/evaluation process such that earthquake, wind, and flood hazards are treated on a consistent basis. These criteria also employ a graded approach to ensure that the level of conservatism and rigor in design/evaluation is appropriate for facility characteristics such as importance, hazards to people on and off site, and threat to the environment. For each natural phenomena hazard covered, these criteria consist of the following: Performance Categories and target performance goals as specified in the DOE Order 420.1 NPH Implementation Guide, and DOE-STD-1 021; specified probability levels from which natural phenomena hazard loading on structures, equipment, and systems is developed; and design and evaluation procedures to evaluate response to NPH loads and criteria to assess whether or not computed response is permissible.

  3. Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanne L Nel

    Full Text Available Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes, it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

  4. Occupational safety in the nuclear power plant. The contribution of sociology to the development of a communication tool for the elimination of hazardous situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zedler, Christien; Huber, Veit

    2012-01-01

    Nuclear power plant companies make efforts to enhance the operational safety in the plant. Despite a variety of measures the number of accidents at work is still too high, esp. for external personnel. Social psychological considerations were used to develop communication tools for the elimination of hazardous situations, for instance by safety dialogues between employees. The observation of hazardous situations should trigger communication and discussion on the risk of the specific situation. In the contribution practical experiences and recommendations for the realization of a safety dialogue culture in the NPP Grafenrheinfeld are summarized and illustrated by examples.

  5. Natural radioactivity and radiological hazards of building materials in Xianyang, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Xinwei; Yang Guang; Ren Chunhui

    2012-01-01

    Common building materials collected from Xianyang, China were analyzed for the natural radioactivity of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K using γ-ray spectroscopy. The average activity concentration of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in the studied building materials ranges from 13.4 to 69.9, 13.1–99.1 and 124.7–915.1 Bq kg −1 , respectively. The measured activity concentrations for these radionuclides were compared with the reported data of other countries and with the worldwide average activity of soil. To assess the radiation hazard of the natural radioactivity in all samples to the people, the radium equivalent activity, external hazard index, internal hazard index, indoor absorbed dose rate and total annual effective dose were estimated. The radium equivalent activities of the studied samples are below the internationally accepted values. The external hazard index and internal hazard index of all analyzed building materials are less than unity. The mean values of indoor absorbed dose rate for all building materials except for lime are higher than the world population-weighted average of 84 nGy h −1 and the total annual effective dose values of building materials are lower than 1 mSv y −1 except for some cyan brick samples. The study shows the measured building materials do not pose significant source of radiation hazard and are safe for use in the construction of dwellings. - Highlights: ► Natural radioactivity in building materials was determined by gamma ray spectrometry. ► The radiological hazard of studied building materials is within the recommended safety limit. ► Most of the studied building materials do not pose significant radiation risk to residents.

  6. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

  7. Influence of land-use dynamics on natural hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal

  8. Recent Progress in Understanding Natural-Hazards-Generated TEC Perturbations: Measurements and Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komjathy, A.; Yang, Y. M.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Langley, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    Natural hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, have been significant threats to humans throughout recorded history. The Global Positioning System satellites have become primary sensors to measure signatures associated with such natural hazards. These signatures typically include GPS-derived seismic deformation measurements, co-seismic vertical displacements, and real-time GPS-derived ocean buoy positioning estimates. Another way to use GPS observables is to compute the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to measure and monitor post-seismic ionospheric disturbances caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Research at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) laid the foundations to model the three-dimensional ionosphere at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory by ingesting ground- and space-based GPS measurements into the state-of-the-art Global Assimilative Ionosphere Modeling (GAIM) software. As an outcome of the UNB and NASA research, new and innovative GPS applications have been invented including the use of ionospheric measurements to detect tiny fluctuations in the GPS signals between the spacecraft and GPS receivers caused by natural hazards occurring on or near the Earth's surface.We will show examples for early detection of natural hazards generated ionospheric signatures using ground-based and space-borne GPS receivers. We will also discuss recent results from the U.S. Real-time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation Network (READI) exercises utilizing our algorithms. By studying the propagation properties of ionospheric perturbations generated by natural hazards along with applying sophisticated first-principles physics-based modeling, we are on track to develop new technologies that can potentially save human lives and minimize property damage. It is also expected that ionospheric monitoring of TEC perturbations might become an integral part of existing natural hazards warning systems.

  9. Survey of naturally occurring hazardous materials in deep geologic formations: a perspective on the relative hazard of deep burial of nuclear wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonnessen, K.A.; Cohen, J.J.

    1977-01-01

    Hazards associated with deep burial of solidified nuclear waste are considered with reference to toxic elements in naturally occurring ore deposits. This problem is put into perspective by relating the hazard of a radioactive waste repository to that of naturally occurring geologic formations. The basis for comparison derives from a consideration of safe drinking water levels. Calculations for relative toxicity of FBR waste and light water reactor (LWR) waste in an underground repository are compared with the relative toxicity indices obtained for average concentration ore deposits. Results indicate that, over time, nuclear waste toxicity decreases to levels below those of naturally occurring hazardous materials

  10. An (even) broader perspective: Combining environmental processes and natural hazards education in a MSc programme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckmann, Tobias; Haas, Florian; Trappe, Martin; Cyffka, Bernd; Becht, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards are processes occurring in the natural environment that negatively affect human society. In most instances, the definition of natural hazards implies sudden events as different as earthquakes, floods or landslides. In addition, there are other phenomena that occur more subtly or slowly, and nevertheless may have serious adverse effects on the human environment. Hence, a comprehensive study programme in natural hazards has to include not only the conspicuous causes and effects of natural catastrophes, but of environmental processes in general. Geography as a discipline is located at the interface of natural, social and economic sciences; the physical geography programme described here is designed to include the social and economic dimension as well as management issues. Modules strengthening the theoretical background of geomorphic, geological, hydrological and meteorological processes and hazards are complemented by practical work in the field and the laboratory, dealing with measuring and monitoring environmental processes. On this basis, modeling and managing skills are developed. Another thread in the transdisciplinary programme deals with sustainability and environmental policy issues, and environmental psychology (e.g. perception of and reaction to hazards). This will improve the communication and team working skills of students wherever they are part of an interdisciplinary working group. Through the involvement in research programmes, students are confronted ‘hands on' with the different aspects of environmental processes and their consequences; thus, they will be excellently but not exclusively qualified for positions in the ‘natural hazards' sector.

  11. Would you rather be injured by lightning or a downed power line? Preference for natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey M. Rudski

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Past research has shown that many people prefer natural foods and medicines over artificial counterparts. The present study focused on examination of aversive events and hazards. Preferences were compared by having subjects consider pairs of scenarios, one natural and one artificial, matched in negative outcome and severity. Pairings were also rated along several dimensions of risk perception such as dangerousness, scariness, likelihood, and fairness. As hypothesized, natural hazards were consistently preferred to functionally identical artificial ones. Additionally, natural hazards tended to be considered less scary and dangerous, but not necessarily more unfair or unlikely than equivalent artificial counterparts. Results are discussed in terms of risk perception, and how that can lead to people diminishing risks associated with natural hazards.

  12. What's nature got to do with it? A situated historical perspective on socio-natural commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peluso, Nancy Lee

    2012-01-01

    Nature(s) have been commodified since the early days of capitalism, but through processes and socio-natural relationships mediated by their times, histories and localities. While the conditions under which nature's commodities are being trademarked today may be new, their potential for commodification is not. Commodifications of nature should not come as a surprise to environmental social scientists and activists. In this article, I argue that commodification of ‘nature's products, places and processes’ produces new sorts of socio-natures. Situated histories of rubber are particularly relevant because, like carbon, ecosystem services and other recently commodified natures, rubber sits comfortably on the line between a fictitious commodity and a commodity produced explicitly for market: the latex alone has almost no use value, and to give it any exchange value, it requires processing. Yet analytically, it is still considered a ‘natural commodity’, different from ‘synthetic rubber’ and other tradable tree latexes in qualities and socio-natural characteristics. However, it is the social relations constituting rubber's production and trade in various rainforest and agro-forestry environments that have given it a positive or negative connotation, rather than its natural properties or the ecological contexts within which it has been produced. By situating rubber in three of its globally important temporal and spatial contexts, I show how it has been subjected to fairy-tale-like stories that masked and naturalized its commodity lives of the moment. Understanding how history is told or remains untold is thus an essential part of the politics of knowledge production, but also of human experience and mobilization for change. It should be part of any political ecology analysis.

  13. The overprotective parent - Bureaucratic agencies and natural hazard management

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Raschky

    2007-01-01

    Due to the public good character of protective measures against natural disasters events, their allocation is very often in the realm of bureaucratic and expert agencies. Based on the economic theory of bureaucracy the behaviour of a bureau providing the good "protection against natural hazards" is analysed. The existing model is extended by further institutional constraints accounting for societal control mechanisms. The main proposition is that the allocation of protective measures through ...

  14. Natural Hazards in Earth Science education projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrero, Elena; Magagna, Alessandra

    2013-04-01

    In the last decades, the awareness of the role of geoscientists in the society increased, while a deeper awareness of the importance of an ethical behavior developed in the geoscientists professional work, in the communication with the public, in the students and teachers training. Recently, the scientific contributions on geoethics have increased, as well as the organization of special scientific sessions in important international congresses, consolidated by the publication of significant synthesis, proceedings of conferences, special issues of prestigious journals of Geosciences. Starting from these assumptions, considering that geoethic involves widespread interests of different cultural fields, it is proposed a review of training activities related to Natural Hazards developed at the University of Turin, in collaboration with other institutions and authorities of Piemonte region (Italy). Different activities will be exposed, based on the same goals and methods, shared within an interdisciplinary research group. A few examples of these activities will be mentioned belonging to institutional training (courses and university laboratories, thesis and doctoral dissertations, graduate schools for teachers training, masters and seminars), but also collaboration with Natural History Museums and Natural Parks of the Piemonte region, as well as occasional workshops proposed in conferences, seminars developed with Teachers Associations, single didactic proposals offered in schools. These activities include, as an example, events of tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, floods and slopes instability events, abandoned waste and interference with soil and groundwater, risk of degradation of fossil localities etc. These proposals were structured in order to carry out didactic research on students' misconceptions, on the conceptual difficulties of certain topics, on the skills of abstraction required: some relevant concepts are extremely difficult to conceive, as it happens

  15. Hiking tourism development in protected areas and nature hazard prevention in the Lake Baikal natural territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luzhkova Natalia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since 2010, recreational development has been permitted in strict nature reserves (zapovedniks in Russia, the most highly protected category of Russian Federal Protected Areas. As zapovedniks comply with the 1b IUCN category for wilderness preservation, human activities within the reserves have been limited and, consequently, there has been little research on the natural hazard impact for tourism. The type of recreational use permitted in the territories and their buffer zones is called Educational Tourism. It is identified as “as a specialized type of ecological tourism where the main goal is an introduction to natural and cultural attractions”. Hiking is seen as one of these suitable types of tourism within the territories of zapovedniks, due to its low impact on natural features. As hiking trails are laid through natural landscapes, it is possible that natural disasters can both damage the infrastructure and cause fatal injuries for visitors. During the planning stages of trail construction, natural hazard monitoring should be conducted. Baikalskii Nature Biosphere Zapovednik in the Lake Baikal region is used as a model territory where scientific research and engineering are employed to better develop hiking tourism. Along with the monitoring of natural processes, several scenarios for trail planning, construction, and maintenance are being analyzed under the threat of mud slides, avalanches and floods.

  16. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2012-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is ...

  17. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

  18. Economic and Ethical Consequences of Natural Hazards in Alpine Valleys (EE-Con)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortner, Florian; Brantl, Dirk; Meyer, Lukas; Steininger, Karl; Sass, Oliver

    2015-04-01

    The Alps and their population are particularly vulnerable to geomorphological and hydrological hazards and this problem might be amplified by ongoing climate change. Natural disasters cause severe monetary damage which often leads to the difficult question whether it socially pays to protect settlements at high costs or whether alternatively settlement areas should better be abandoned. By investigations in the Johnsbachtal and the Kleinsölktal (Styria), the interdisciplinary project "Economic and Ethical Consequences of Natural Hazards in Alpine Valleys" (EE-Con), funded by the Austrian Academy of Sciences, seeks to answer the following questions: (1) Are natural hazards and associated damages in fact increasing, and is this due to meteorological triggers, to anthropogenic factors or to internal process dynamics? (2) What is the perception and knowledge of local people, how is risk and risk prevention communicated? (3) What is the respective cost ratio between protection infrastructure, soft measures of adaptation and other options (e.g. reduction of settlement area)? (4) What legitimate claims to compensation do people have, how far does societal responsibility go and where does individual responsibility start if parts of the settlement area had to be abandoned? These questions will be tackled in an interdisciplinary cooperation between geography, economics and normative theory (philosophy). EE-Con will follow broadly the path of risk analysis and risk assessment, focusing on the temporal dimension (past - present - future) with the aim to unravel the history of natural hazards in the areas and to analyse the economic values involved. In the following, natural hazard scenarios for the future (2050 and 2100) will be developed considering the economic consequences. Besides this, the project deals with local knowledge, risk perception and risk communication, which will be investigated via group interviews and stakeholder workshops and be integrated into a human

  19. Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-05-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

  20. Hunza Landslide and Monsoon Flooding in Pakistan Call for International Attention to Transboundary Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Furfaro, R.; Leonard, G. J.; Patterson, M.; Glims, Gaphaz

    2010-12-01

    rockslide-formed Lake Gojal and of the region’s glacier dynamics seen by satellite to show the promise of remote sensing to address disaster management and hazard identification. However, the biggest role of remote sensing should be in the identification of hazard-prone situations, such as areas where landslides or the development of dangerous glacier lakes is likely. Increased satellite surveillance and deployment of air- and land surface-borne sensor platforms, and in some cases surface or subsurface watercraft, may aid the characterization of the landscape, identify geologic and climatic instabilities, and identify vulnerabilities among the people and infrastructure. A broad-based remote sensing program should fit within a coherent regional/international approach to the key related issues of natural hazards, water resources, urban planning, food security, hydropower, and environmental conservation. Notably, these issues all are interlinked to transboundary hydrology and climate change.

  1. Progress towards developing consistent design and evaluation guidelines for DOE facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Short, S.A.; McDonald, J.R.; McCann, M.W. Jr.; Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    Probabilistic definitions of earthquake, wind and tornado natural phenomena hazards for many Department of Energy (DOE) facilities throughout the United States have been developed. In addition, definitions of the flood hazards which might affect these locations are currently being developed. The Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel is now preparing a document to provide guidance and criteria for DOE facility managers to assure that DOE facilities are adequately constructed to resist the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquake, strong wind and flood. The intent of this document is to provide instruction on how to utilize the hazard definitions to evaluate existing facilities and design new facilities in a manner such that the risk of adverse consequences is consistent with the cost, function, and danger to the public or environment of the facility. Potential effects on facilities of natural phenomena hazards are emphasized in this paper. The philosophy for mitigating these effects to be employed in the design and evaluation guidelines is also presented

  2. Impacts of ICT on the Spatial Differentiation of Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Werner Piotr

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of information and communication technologies (ICTs has significant economic and social impacts at both the global and regional level. Some of these implications have been perceived as positive and unexpected. While both the positive and negative social and economic impacts have been highlighted in the literature, opinions on these impacts remain ambiguous. Those aspects considered to be advantageous include faster communication, ease of use, development in the range of services and revenues, and an increase in individuals’ free time allowance. ICT penetrates all branches of the economy as a set of general purpose technologies. New information and communication technologies ease everyday life, serve as tools to help people in extreme situations, e.g. accidents, illnesses or natural disasters, and are also the pillars of contemporary entertainment media. The usefulness of ICT has been stressed and loudly disseminated to a large extent by the media. On the other hand, these new technologies sensitize society in quite new ways to the well-known natural hazards that people have encountered in the past.

  3. Numerical Modelling of Extreme Natural Hazards in the Russian Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Surkova, Galina

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges and extreme waves are severe natural sea hazards. Due to the almost complete lack of natural observations of these phenomena in the Russian seas (Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic, White, Barents, Okhotsk, Kara), especially about their formation, development and destruction, they have been studied using numerical simulation. To calculate the parameters of wind waves for the seas listed above, except the Barents Sea, the spectral model SWAN was applied. For the Barents and Kara seas we used WAVEWATCH III model. Formation and development of storm surges were studied using ADCIRC model. The input data for models - bottom topography, wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover. In modeling of surges in the White and Barents seas tidal level fluctuations were used. They have been calculated from 16 harmonic constant obtained from global atlas tides FES2004. Wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2010, and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis for the period from 1979 to 2015. In modeling we used both regular and unstructured grid. The wave climate of the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic and White seas was obtained. Also the extreme wave height possible once in 100 years has been calculated. The statistics of storm surges for the White, Barents and Azov Seas were evaluated. The contribution of wind and atmospheric pressure in the formation of surges was estimated. The technique of climatic forecast frequency of storm synoptic situations was developed and applied for every sea. The research was carried out with financial support of the RFBR (grant 16-08-00829).

  4. Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

    2010-05-01

    Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any

  5. Natural hazard losses: A DOE (Department of Energy) perspective. Injury and property damage experience from natural phenomena hazards Department of Energy 1943-1989

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This presentation provides a perspective of DOE losses during the past 46 years even though loss data was not readily available for all DOE operations. As such this paper is considered preliminary and more work is needed to provide an informed view of all DOE losses. Review of the reported historical losses has provided an opportunity to create an awareness of the extent and location of a wide variety of natural phenomena hazards that have caused damage at most DOE sites. Some suggestions and observations to consider are: (1) mitigation strategies may achieve greatest reductions in wind damage; (2) most damage has occurred to conventional construction; (3) lightning damage review may provide insight for design standards change; (4) flood damage occurred where least expected. Through this awareness, the author hopes we are encouraged to provide our ideas and our professional skills for a Decade of Natural Hazard Reduction in the Department of Energy

  6. Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

    2014-01-01

    The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.

  7. Geoethics: the responsibility of geoscientists in making society more aware of natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peppoloni, S.; Matteucci, R.; Piacente, S.; Wasowski, J.

    2012-04-01

    The damage due to geological hazards, with frequent loss of human lives, is not entirely avoidable, but can be greatly reduced through the correct land use that respects the natural processes, through prevention and mitigation efforts, through an effective and correct information to the population. Often not responsible behaviors by politicians, as well as the need for heavy investments and the lack of information make difficult the solution of problems and slow the path to a proper management of the environment, the only way to provide a significant mitigation of damages of the geological disasters. In many countries (including Italy) the importance of the Geoscientists's role is not yet sufficiently recognized, despite it is evident the necessity of a greater attention to geological problems by policy makers and public opinion, as well as a more adequate information about natural risks to the society. The commitment to ensure prevention and mitigation of geological hazards must be considered an ethical value and duty for those who possess the appropriate knowledge and skills. Within the above context, Geoscientists have a key role to play as experts in analyzing and managing the territory's vulnerability: they must take responsibility to share and communicate their knowledge more effectively with all private and public stakeholders involved, paying attention to providing balanced information about risks and addressing inevitable uncertainties in natural hazard mapping, assessment, warning, and forecasting. But Geoscientists need to be more aware of their ethical responsibility, of their social duty to serve the society, care about and protect territory, and to facilitate the desirable shift from a culture of emergency to a culture of prevention. The search for balance between short-term economic issues and wider social impacts from natural hazards is an increasingly urgent need. Geoethics must be central to society's responses to natural hazard threats.

  8. Natural Hazard Resilience - A Large-scale Transdisciplinary "National Science Challenge" for New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The National Science Challenges are initiatives to address the most important public science issues that face New Zealand with long-term funding and the combined strength of a coordinated science-sector behind them. Eleven major topics are tackled, across our human, natural and built environments. In the "Resilience Challenge" we address New Zealand's natural hazards. Alongside severe metrological threats, New Zealand also faces one of the highest levels of earthquake and volcanic hazard in the world. Resilience is a hotly discussed concept, here, we take the view: Resilience encapsulates the features of a system to anticipate threats, acknowledge there will be impacts (no matter how prepared we are), quickly pick up the pieces, as well as learn and adapt from the experience to better absorb and rebound from future shocks. Our research must encompass innovation in building and lifelines engineering, planning and regulation, emergency management practice, alongside understanding how our natural hazard systems work, how we monitor them and how our communities/governance/industries can be influenced and encouraged (e.g., via economic incentives) to develop and implement resilience practice. This is a complex interwoven mix of areas and is best addressed through case-study areas where researchers and the users of the research can jointly identify problems and co-develop science solutions. I will highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of this coordinated approach to an all-hazard, all-country problem, using the example of the Resilience Challenge approach after its first two and a half years of operation. Key issues include balancing investment into high-profile (and often high consequence), but rare hazards against the frequent "monthly" hazards that collectively occupy regional and local governance. Also, it is clear that despite increasingly sophisticated hazard and hazard mitigation knowledge being generated in engineering and social areas, a range of policy

  9. Natural hazards knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roder, Giulia; Ruljigaljig, Tjuku; Lin, Ching-Weei; Tarolli, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this work is to investigate the natural hazard knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community, located in Fazhi Village in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. Taiwan has encountered many different types of natural hazards (e.g. landslides and debris flows) that have increased sharply in the last century. Because of that, they are one of the most critical issues for the government and for the people living in mountainous areas. These areas are mainly populated by indigenous people that have experienced economic competition and military conflict with a series of colonizing periods causing a progressive loss of their original cultural identity. The motivation of selecting the case study of Wujie community is because (i) it has suffered, more than others, generations of devastating colonial oppression by foreign governments; (ii) the consequences of hydroelectric projects that moved a lot of water and sediment to the valley and modified the path of the river through the years; (iii) the documented landslides and debris flows occurred in the region during the last decades. Two questions appear spontaneously: How indigenous people are nowadays living with natural hazards? Have land use change or any other human footprint affected their knowledge and perception on natural hazards? This research, the first carried out in Taiwan involving an indigenous community, can offer a unique opportunity to answer these questions. The investigation utilized a variety of participatory methods conducted at the household and community level by the use of 65 face-to-face interviews. Results revealed that residents felt a higher worry about landslide and flood risks, and a slight preparedness to face them. This discrepancy may derive from an unsatisfactory level of communication and information, and the most considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. Results revealed also the complexity

  10. Fourth DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Conference: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This conference allowed an interchange in the natural phenomena area among designers, safety professionals, and managers. The papers presented in Volume I of the proceedings are from sessions I - VIII which cover the general topics of: DOE standards, lessons learned and walkdowns, wind, waste tanks, ground motion, testing and materials, probabilistic seismic hazards, risk assessment, base isolation and energy dissipation, and lifelines and floods. Individual papers are indexed separately. (GH)

  11. Studying and Improving Human Response to Natural Hazards: Lessons from the Virtual Hurricane Lab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, R.; Broad, K.; Orlove, B. S.

    2010-12-01

    One of the most critical challenges facing communities in areas prone to natural hazards is how to best encourage residents to invest in individual and collective actions that would reduce the damaging impact of low-probability, high-consequence, environmental events. Unfortunately, what makes this goal difficult to achieve is that the relative rarity natural hazards implies that many who face the risk of natural hazards have no previous experience to draw on when making preparation decisions, or have prior experience that provides misleading guidance on how best to prepare. For example, individuals who have experienced strings of minor earthquakes or near-misses from tropical cyclones may become overly complacent about the risks that extreme events actually pose. In this presentation we report the preliminary findings of a program of work that explores the use of realistic multi-media hazard simulations designed for two purposes: 1) to serve as a basic research tool for studying of how individuals make decisions to prepare for rare natural hazards in laboratory settings; and 2) to serve as an educational tool for giving people in hazard-prone areas virtual experience in hazard preparation. We demonstrate a prototype simulation in which participants experience the approach of a virtual hurricane, where they have the opportunity to invest in different kinds of action to protect their home from damage. As the hurricane approaches participants have access to an “information dashboard” in which they can gather information about the storm threat from a variety of natural sources, including mock television weather broadcasts, web sites, and conversations with neighbors. In response to this information they then have the opportunity to invest in different levels of protective actions. Some versions of the simulation are designed as games, where participants are rewarded based on their ability to make the optimal trade-off between under and over-preparing for the

  12. Using systems gaming to explore decision-making under uncertainty in natural hazard crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaughey, Jamie W.; Finnigan, David

    2017-04-01

    Faced with uncertain scientific forecasts of a potential hazard, it is perhaps natural to wait and see. As we wait, uncertainties do decrease, but so do our options to minimise impacts of the hazard. This tradeoff is fundamental to preparing for natural hazards, yet difficult to communicate. Interactive systems gaming is one promising way forward. We are developing in-person interactive games, drawing on role-playing and other table-top scenario exercises in natural hazards, as well as on game-based modeling of complex systems. Our games model an unfolding natural hazard crisis (such as volcanic unrest or an approaching typhoon) as a complex social-physical system. Participants take on the roles of diverse stakeholder groups (including government, scientists, media, farmers, city residents, and others) with differing expertise, responsibilities, and priorities. Interactions among these groups play out in a context of decreasing scientific uncertainty and decreasing options for actions to reduce societal risk. Key design challenges are (1) to engage players without trivialising the real-world context; (2) to provide the right level of guidance for players to navigate the system; and (3) to enable players to face realistic tradeoffs and see realistic consequences of their choices, without feeling frustrated that the game is set up for them to fail. We will first prototype the games with general public and secondary-school participants, then adjust this for specialist groups working in disaster management. We will illustrate participatory systems gaming techniques in our presentation 'A toolkit of systems gaming techniques' in the companion EGU session EOS6: 'Perform! A platform to discuss art & science projects with live presentation'.

  13. Public sentiment and movement patterns during natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Q.; Guo, C.

    2017-12-01

    Recently, we have unfortunately witnessed a series of deadly hurricane events, including Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria and Nate. Effective disaster management actions such as getting citizen sheltered and evacuated can significantly reduce injuries and fatalities. A more comprehensive understanding of citizen's perceptions (e.g., sentiment) about a disaster and movement behaviors (e.g., evacuation) will help improve disaster management and decision making during natural hazards. With the popularity of various social media platforms (i.e. Twitter), there has been great potentials in using social media data to detect and analyze citizen's perceptions and moving behaviors before, during and after a natural hazard. Using the geo-tagged tweets generated during recent hurricane events, the study will examine the movement interactions between citizens and a hurricane and also explore citizens' tweeting behaviors and sentiments at different stages of a disaster. The results provide insights on understanding 1) spatiotemporal patterns of public movements (i.e., when and where did people's movements happen), 2) how were people's movements related to the hurricane trajectory, 3) when did people in different locations start to pay attention to the hurricane, and finally 4) how were the sentiments of people in different places towards the hurricane during different disaster stages.

  14. Fluor Daniel Hanford implementation plan for DOE Order 5480.28. Natural phenomena hazards mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrads, T.J.

    1997-01-01

    Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public, or the environment. Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), snow, flooding, volcanic ashfall, and lightning strikes are examples of NPH that could occur at the Hanford Site. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) policy requires facilities to be designed, constructed, and operated in a manner that protects workers, the public, and the environment from hazards caused by natural phenomena. DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, includes rigorous new natural phenomena criteria for the design of new DOE facilities, as well as for the evaluation and, if necessary, upgrade of existing DOE facilities. The Order was transmitted to Westinghouse Hanford Company in 1993 for compliance and is also identified in the Project Hanford Management Contract, Section J, Appendix C. Criteria and requirements of DOE Order 5480.28 are included in five standards, the last of which, DOE-STD-1023, was released in fiscal year 1996. Because the Order was released before all of its required standards were released, enforcement of the Order was waived pending release of the last standard and determination of an in-force date by DOE Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL). Agreement also was reached between the Management and Operations Contractor and DOE-RL that the Order would become enforceable for new structures, systems, and components (SSCS) 60 days following issue of a new order-based design criteria in HNF-PRO-97, Engineering Design and Evaluation. The order also requires that commitments addressing existing SSCs be included in an implementation plan that is to be issued 1 year following the release of the last standard. Subsequently, WHC-SP-1175, Westinghouse Hanford Company Implementation Plan for DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, Rev. 0, was issued in November 1996, and this document, HNF-SP-1175, Fluor Daniel Hanford

  15. Cost assessment of natural hazards in Europe - state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, V.; Becker, N.; Markantonis, V.; Schwarze, R.; van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.; Bouwer, L. M.; Bubeck, P.; Ciavola, P.; Thieken, A. H.; Genovese, E.; Green, C.; Hallegatte, S.; Kreibich, H.; Lequeux, Q.; Viavattenne, C.; Logar, I.; Papyrakis, E.; Pfurtscheller, C.; Poussin, J.; Przyluski, V.

    2012-04-01

    Effective and efficient reduction of natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards in order to develop sustainable risk management strategies. The current methods that assess the costs of different natural hazards employ a diversity of terminologies and approaches for different hazards and impacted sectors. This makes it difficult to arrive at robust, comprehensive and comparable cost figures. The CONHAZ (Costs of Natural Hazards) project aimed to compile and synthesise current knowledge on cost assessment methods in order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management and adaptation planning. In order to achieve this, CONHAZ has adopted a comprehensive approach, considering natural hazards ranging from droughts, floods and coastal hazards to Alpine hazards, as well as different impacted sectors and cost types. Its specific objectives have been 1) to compile the state-of-the-art methods for cost assessment; 2) to analyse and assess these methods in terms of technical aspects, as well as terminology, data quality and availability, and research gaps; and 3) to synthesise resulting knowledge into recommendations and to identify further research needs. This presentation summarises the main results of CONHAZ. CONHAZ differentiates between direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and costs of risk mitigation. It is shown that the main focus of cost assessment methods and their application in practice is on direct costs, while existing methods for assessing intangible and indirect effects are rather rarely applied and methods for assessing indirect effects often cannot be used on the scale of interest (e.g. the regional scale). Furthermore, methods often focus on single sectors and/or hazards, and only very few are able to reflect several sectors or multiple hazards. Process understanding and its use in cost assessment

  16. Teleplaneta: a 7 year-long effort to spread natural hazard's knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, David; Álvarez, Domingo; Marrero, Nieves; Pérez, Nemesio M.

    2016-04-01

    One of the main and toughest goals for a geoscientist is to have a properly communication with the society when the time comes for showing results, scientific advances or whatever kind of remarkable event. The complexity of the scientific terminology, and the existence of a few communication channels, often prevents lay people to know about how the advance of science is occurring or how new discoveries are helping us to have a better understanding about the Planet Earth. In that respect, mass media provide the most powerful tool to enhance this communication, both radio and TV broadcasting, since the wealth of Earth-sciences' related information available on issues like global climate, water, energy and natural hazards remain largely unknown to the public and often untapped by policy and decision makers. Almost 75% of the Earth population lives in areas that had been hit, at least once in the last 20 years, by earthquakes, severe storms, flooding or droughts. TELEPLANETA is a joint effort of the Spanish National Public Television in the Canary Islands (RTVE-Canarias) and the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) for raising public awareness of the impact of these natural hazards in the society, with an understandable language away from too much technical terms but basically avoiding the gruesome side of this kind of events. TELEPLANETA tries to give a scientific explanation of why these hazards occur, focusing on the visual communication with the viewers. This weekly TV program is broadcasted through the worldwide coverage news channel - 24 Hours Channel - of the Spanish National Public TV (TVE). Actually immersed on our 7th season, TELEPLANETA has gone through a challenging improvement, from a barely 4 minute outsider program to a 20 minutes long, full enhanced TV show. We actually provide accurate information about natural hazards, but also a weekly review of twitteŕs best pictures and comments regarding nature, as well as scientific report at the most

  17. Landscape analysis for multi-hazard prevention in Orco and Soana valleys, Northwest Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turconi, L.; Tropeano, D.; Savio, G.; De, S. K.; Mason, P. J.

    2015-09-01

    The study area (600 km2), consisting of Orco and Soana valleys in the Western Italian Alps, experienced different types of natural hazards, typical of the whole Alpine environment. Some of the authors have been requested to draw a civil protection plan for such mountainous regions. This offered the special opportunity (1) to draw a lot of unpublished historical data, dating back several centuries mostly concerning natural hazard processes and related damages, (2) to develop original detailed geo-morphological studies in a region still poorly known, (3) to prepare detailed thematic maps illustrating landscape components related to natural conditions and hazards, (4) to thoroughly check present-day situations in the area compared to the effects of past events and (5) to find adequate natural hazard scenarios for all sites exposed to risk. The method of work has been essentially to compare archival findings with field evidence in order to assess natural hazard processes, their occurrence and magnitude, and to arrange all such elements in a database for GIS-supported thematic maps. Several types of natural hazards, such as landslides, rockfalls, debris flows, stream floods and snow avalanches cause huge damage to lives and properties (housings, roads, tourist sites). We aim to obtain newly acquired knowledge in this large, still poorly understood area as well as develop easy-to-interpret products such as natural risk maps.

  18. How to Reinforce the “Defence-in-Depth” in NPP by Taking into Account Natural Hazards?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavarenne, C.; Herviou, K.; Picot, C.; Dupuy, P., E-mail: caroline.lavarenne@irsn.fr, E-mail: karine.herviou@irsn.fr [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Pôle Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay aux Roses (France)

    2014-10-15

    The “defence-in-depth” (DiD) principle is the fundamental safety principle for the design and operation of nuclear power plants. This principle aims to prevent as far as possible initiating events and managing their consequences if preventive provisions failed. It has to be applied to the protection against hazards so as to limit their likelihood and/or their consequences by the implementation of prevention, control and mitigation provisions in NPPs consistently with provisions for internal events. So far, the protection of nuclear power plants against external hazards follows a “load-cases” approach, which differs from the approach used for internal events. In 2011, the Fukushima accident showed that, for a beyond design hazard or a combination of hazards not considered at the design stage, all levels of defence may be swept away simultaneously and may lead to a disaster. Natural hazards can therefore be considered as a potential common cause of failure affecting at the same time all levels of the “defence-in-depth”. In France, the definition and the implementation of a post-Fukushima “Hardened Safety Core” for operating NPPs should compensate for some weaknesses in the current approach and improve significantly the robustness of the installations against natural hazards. For future reactors, a new approach based on the definition of two domains, “design basis” and “design extension” for natural hazards, is examined in order to fulfil ambitious general plant safety objectives. It turns out that safety assessments related to natural hazards raise some challenges and difficulties, especially to characterize events with very low frequencies in a context of limited data, to define combinations of hazards (eventually with internal events) and to consider events that go beyond the design basis. For these issues, international guidance and discussions may be fruitful. (author)

  19. Natural Hazards and the press in the western Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Llasat-Botija

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses press articles published between 1982 and 2005 in an attempt to describe the social perception of natural hazards in Catalonia. The articles included in the database have been classified according to different types of risk. In addition, the study examines the evolution of each type of risk in the press coverage during the study period. Finally, the results have been compared to data provided by insurance companies with respect to compensations paid out for damages. Conclusions show that floods are the most important natural hazard in the region, but that the number of headlines for each event is greater in the case of snowfalls and forest fires. Factors such as the season of the year, the proximity of the affected region to the capital, the topical issues at the time, and the presence of other important news must be considered when the impact in the press is analysed.

  20. The Role of Knowledge in the prevention of natural hazards and related risks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Miccadei

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Human activities, especially over the last two centuries, have had a huge impact on the environment and the landscape. Mankind is able to control and induce landscape changes but is subject to natural processes and hazards due to severe and extreme events (particularly earthquakes but also landslides and flooding and related risks. Risks are the result of hazards, exposed elements and vulnerability and they are consequently not only an expression of the natural environment, but also related to human interaction with nature. Risks need to be addressed regularly by means of a high level of knowledge in order to provide most up­to­date information for any decision which needs to be taken by any party involved. A high level of knowledge concerning natural hazards and related risks stems from the geological and geomorphological history and from the historical records of the natural processes and grows with multi­scale, multi­temporal and multidisciplinary studies and investigations, which include land management, economic and social issues. A strong effort has to be made in this way to improve risk assessment and the enforcement of existing laws and ­ if necessary ­ new laws, really stem from recent disasters. This will help to achieve improved and effective land management, based on an interdisciplinary approach in which expert geologists and land managers will play a role, because of the importance of natural processes in inducing risks.

  1. The NHERI RAPID Facility: Enabling the Next-Generation of Natural Hazards Reconnaissance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wartman, J.; Berman, J.; Olsen, M. J.; Irish, J. L.; Miles, S.; Gurley, K.; Lowes, L.; Bostrom, A.

    2017-12-01

    The NHERI post-disaster, rapid response research (or "RAPID") facility, headquartered at the University of Washington (UW), is a collaboration between UW, Oregon State University, Virginia Tech, and the University of Florida. The RAPID facility will enable natural hazard researchers to conduct next-generation quick response research through reliable acquisition and community sharing of high-quality, post-disaster data sets that will enable characterization of civil infrastructure performance under natural hazard loads, evaluation of the effectiveness of current and previous design methodologies, understanding of socio-economic dynamics, calibration of computational models used to predict civil infrastructure component and system response, and development of solutions for resilient communities. The facility will provide investigators with the hardware, software and support services needed to collect, process and assess perishable interdisciplinary data following extreme natural hazard events. Support to the natural hazards research community will be provided through training and educational activities, field deployment services, and by promoting public engagement with science and engineering. Specifically, the RAPID facility is undertaking the following strategic activities: (1) acquiring, maintaining, and operating state-of-the-art data collection equipment; (2) developing and supporting mobile applications to support interdisciplinary field reconnaissance; (3) providing advisory services and basic logistics support for research missions; (4) facilitating the systematic archiving, processing and visualization of acquired data in DesignSafe-CI; (5) training a broad user base through workshops and other activities; and (6) engaging the public through citizen science, as well as through community outreach and education. The facility commenced operations in September 2016 and will begin field deployments beginning in September 2018. This poster will provide an overview

  2. The Unsustainable Trend of Natural Hazard Losses in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Gall

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In the United States, direct losses from natural hazards are on the rise with hurricanes, flooding, and severe storms contributing about three quarters of the total damages. While losses from severe storms have been stable over the past fifty years, hurricane and flood losses have tripled. Per capita losses are also increasing showing that impacts outpace population growth with high per capita losses occurring largely in the Southeast and Midwest. If the loss escalation of the past two decades continues into the future, then direct losses of $300 to $400 billion within a single decade are possible. In order to reverse this trend, sustainable development, vulnerability reduction, and hazard mitigation must become priorities and current loss reduction efforts need to be evaluated and re-assessed in terms of their effectiveness. These conclusions are drawn from the analysis of spatial and temporal trends in direct losses from natural hazards using SHELDUSTM data from 1960 through 2009. Loss data are adjusted for inflation, population, and wealth to capture both trends in total losses and per capita losses. The loss data are then compared to disaster-related federal government and private insurance expenditures.

  3. Conceptualizing community resilience to natural hazards - the emBRACE framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruse, Sylvia; Abeling, Thomas; Deeming, Hugh; Fordham, Maureen; Forrester, John; Jülich, Sebastian; Nuray Karanci, A.; Kuhlicke, Christian; Pelling, Mark; Pedoth, Lydia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-12-01

    The level of community is considered to be vital for building disaster resilience. Yet, community resilience as a scientific concept often remains vaguely defined and lacks the guiding characteristics necessary for analysing and enhancing resilience on the ground. The emBRACE framework of community resilience presented in this paper provides a heuristic analytical tool for understanding, explaining and measuring community resilience to natural hazards. It was developed in an iterative process building on existing scholarly debates, on empirical case study work in five countries and on participatory consultation with community stakeholders where the framework was applied and ground-tested in different contexts and for different hazard types. The framework conceptualizes resilience across three core domains: (i) resources and capacities, (ii) actions and (iii) learning. These three domains are conceptualized as intrinsically conjoined within a whole. Community resilience is influenced by these integral elements as well as by extra-community forces comprising disaster risk governance and thus laws, policies and responsibilities on the one hand and on the other, the general societal context, natural and human-made disturbances and system change over time. The framework is a graphically rendered heuristic, which through application can assist in guiding the assessment of community resilience in a systematic way and identifying key drivers and barriers of resilience that affect any particular hazard-exposed community.

  4. U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy: promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

    2013-01-01

    The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10–year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical

  5. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.

    2008-01-01

    With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS

  6. A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in natural hazard contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G.; Tweed, F.; Whittle, R.

    2014-01-01

    Over recent decades there have been moves away from traditional forms of government towards broader practices of "governance". These moves are as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as they are to other societal concerns. Key characteristics of such changes include the emergence of multi-level governance processes, shifts away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors, the creation of new forms of authority and control, and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the varied national contexts in Europe and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is not at all clear. Such developments may also be evaluated in different ways; where some might see progressive reforms, others might see damaging undermining of established arrangements. In this paper, we propose a risk governance profiling framework that can be used to draw out the key characteristics of the ways in which natural hazards are governed in a particular governance setting. The framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national, regional or local context, and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of eight key governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as giving examples of profiles for different hazards in different parts of Europe. We suggest ways in which comparisons can be made between governance profiles, providing a stimulus and focus for debate and discussion around the trends of change in governance practice that have been, and are continuing, to take place.

  7. A situational analysis of priority disaster hazards in Uganda: findings from a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayega, R W; Wafula, M R; Musenero, M; Omale, A; Kiguli, J; Orach, G C; Kabagambe, G; Bazeyo, W

    2013-06-01

    Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not conducted a disaster risk analysis. Hazards and vulnerability analyses provide vital information that can be used for development of risk reduction and disaster response plans. The purpose of this study was to rank disaster hazards for Uganda, as a basis for identifying the priority hazards to guide disaster management planning. The study as conducted in Uganda, as part of a multi-country assessment. A hazard, vulnerability and capacity analysis was conducted in a focus group discussion of 7 experts representing key stakeholder agencies in disaster management in Uganda. A simple ranking method was used to rank the probability of occurance of 11 top hazards, their potential impact and the level vulnerability of people and infrastructure. In-terms of likelihood of occurance and potential impact, the top ranked disaster hazards in Uganda are: 1) Epidemics of infectious diseases, 2) Drought/famine, 3) Conflict and environmental degradation in that order. In terms of vulnerability, the top priority hazards to which people and infrastructure were vulnerable were: 1) Conflicts, 2) Epidemics, 3) Drought/famine and, 4) Environmental degradation in that order. Poverty, gender, lack of information, and lack of resilience measures were some of the factors promoting vulnerability to disasters. As Uganda develops a disaster risk reduction and response plan, it ought to prioritize epidemics of infectious diseases, drought/famine, conflics and environmental degradation as the priority disaster hazards.

  8. Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guns, M.; Vanacker, V.

    2012-06-01

    Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression. This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications, combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for statistical analyses of natural hazards.

  9. Geomorphology and natural hazards of the selected glacial valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimeš, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 2 (2012), s. 25-31 ISSN 0300-5402 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1000 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30460519 Keywords : geomorphologic map * natural hazards * glacial lakes Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography http://web.natur.cuni.cz/ksgrrsek/acta/2012/Geographica_2_2012_Klimes.pdf

  10. Guidelines for the development of natural phenomena hazards design criteria for surface facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, T.A.; Hossain, Q.A.; Murray, R.C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the rationale behind the guidelines, criteria, and methodologies that are currently used for natural phenomena hazard design and evaluation of DOE nuclear and non-nuclear facilities. The bases for the performance goals and usage categories specified in UCRL-15910 are examined, and the sources of intentional conservatism in the analyses, design, and evaluation methods and criteria are identified. Outlines of recent developments/changes in DOE Orders related to Natural Phenomena hazard mitigation are also presented. Finally, the authors recommend the use of DOE methodologies as embodied in UCRL-15910 for design and evaluation of surface facilities of the high level nuclear waste repository site

  11. Risks to offshore installations in Europe due to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necci, Amos; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as storms, earthquakes, or lightning are a major threat to industry. In particular, chemical plants, storage facilities, pipelines, and offshore oil and gas facilities are vulnerable to natural events which can cause hazardous materials releases and thereby endanger workers, the population and the environment. These technological accidents are commonly referred to as Natech accidents. Recent events have increased concerns about safety in the offshore oil and gas sector, and the need for improving knowledge on the matter has become evident. With those premises, we analyzed accidents, near misses and accident precursors at offshore facilities in Europe caused by natural events using both a statistical and a qualitative approach. For this purpose, we screened the World Offshore Accident Database (WOAD) to identify all incidents that featured natural events as causes or aggravating factors. A dataset of 1,085 global Natech events was built for the statistical analysis. Among those, a subset composed of 303 European records was selected. The results of the analysis showed that offshore Natech events in Europe are frequent; they resulted, however, in low consequences. The main threat to offshore facilities resulted from bad weather, such as strong winds and heavy seas. Storms can put intense loads on the structural parts of offshore installations, eventually exceeding design resistance specifications. Several incidents triggered by lightning strikes and earthquakes were also recorded. Substantial differences in terms of vulnerability, damage modality and consequences emerged between fixed and floating offshore structures. The main damage mode for floating structures was the failure of station keeping systems due to the rupture of mooring or anchors, mainly caused by adverse meteorological conditions. Most of the incidents at fixed offshore structures in Europe involved falling loads for both metal jacket and concrete base platforms due to storms. In

  12. geomorphological mapping and geophysical profiling for the evaluation of natural hazards in an alpine catchment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seijmonsbergen, A.C.; de Graaff, L.W.S.

    2006-01-01

    Liechtenstein has faced an increasing number of natural hazards over recent decades: debris flows, slides, snow avalanches and floods repeatedly endanger the local infrastructure. Geomorphological field mapping and geo-electrical profiling was used to assess hazards near Malbun, a village

  13. Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Guns

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression. This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications, combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for statistical analyses of natural hazards.

  14. Prioritization of natural phenomena hazards evaluations for CHG facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GRAVES, C.E.

    2001-01-01

    Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment by potential damage to structures, systems and components (SSCs). Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), flood, volcanic eruption, lightning strike, or extreme cold or heat are examples of NPH. This document outlines the method used to prioritize buildings for inspection following an NPH event and contains the priority list for CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG) buildings. Once an NPH event occurs and the Hanford Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, this document will be used by the EOC to assign building inspections for the trained evaluators, barring any information from the field

  15. Prioritization of natural phenomena hazards evaluations for CHG facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Graves, C E

    2001-01-01

    Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment by potential damage to structures, systems and components (SSCs). Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), flood, volcanic eruption, lightning strike, or extreme cold or heat are examples of NPH. This document outlines the method used to prioritize buildings for inspection following an NPH event and contains the priority list for CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG) buildings. Once an NPH event occurs and the Hanford Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, this document will be used by the EOC to assign building inspections for the trained evaluators, barring any information from the field.

  16. Health Hazards Associated with Consumption of Roof-Collected Rainwater in Urban Areas in Emergency Situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol Stewart

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The greater Wellington region, New Zealand, is highly vulnerable to large earthquakes because it is cut by active faults. Bulk water supply pipelines cross the Wellington Fault at several different locations, and there is considerable concern about severe disruption of the provision of reticulated water supplies to households and businesses in the aftermath of a large earthquake. A number of policy initiatives have been launched encouraging householders to install rainwater tanks to increase post-disaster resilience. However, little attention has been paid to potential health hazards associated with consumption of these supplies. To assess health hazards for householders in emergency situations, six 200-litre emergency water tanks were installed at properties across the Wellington region, with five tanks being allowed to fill with roof-collected rainwater and one tank being filled with municipal tapwater as a control. Such tanks are predominantly set aside for water storage and, once filled, feature limited drawdown and recharge. Sampling from these tanks was carried out fortnightly for one year, and samples were analysed for E. coli, pH, conductivity, a range of major and trace elements, and organic compounds, enabling an assessment of the evolution of water chemistry in water storage tanks over time. Key findings were that the overall rate of E. coli detections in the rain-fed tanks was 17.7%, which is low in relation to other studies. We propose that low incidences of may be due to biocidal effects of high zinc concentrations in tanks, originating from unpainted galvanised steel roof cladding. Lead concentrations were high compared to other studies, with 69% of rain-fed tank samples exceeding the World Health Organisation’s health-based guideline of 0.01 mg/L. Further work is required to determine risks of short-term consumption of this water in emergency situations.

  17. Health Hazards Associated with Consumption of Roof-Collected Rainwater in Urban Areas in Emergency Situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Carol; Kim, Nick D; Johnston, David M; Nayyerloo, Mostafa

    2016-10-15

    The greater Wellington region, New Zealand, is highly vulnerable to large earthquakes because it is cut by active faults. Bulk water supply pipelines cross the Wellington Fault at several different locations, and there is considerable concern about severe disruption of the provision of reticulated water supplies to households and businesses in the aftermath of a large earthquake. A number of policy initiatives have been launched encouraging householders to install rainwater tanks to increase post-disaster resilience. However, little attention has been paid to potential health hazards associated with consumption of these supplies. To assess health hazards for householders in emergency situations, six 200-litre emergency water tanks were installed at properties across the Wellington region, with five tanks being allowed to fill with roof-collected rainwater and one tank being filled with municipal tapwater as a control. Such tanks are predominantly set aside for water storage and, once filled, feature limited drawdown and recharge. Sampling from these tanks was carried out fortnightly for one year, and samples were analysed for E. coli , pH, conductivity, a range of major and trace elements, and organic compounds, enabling an assessment of the evolution of water chemistry in water storage tanks over time. Key findings were that the overall rate of E. coli detections in the rain-fed tanks was 17.7%, which is low in relation to other studies. We propose that low incidences of may be due to biocidal effects of high zinc concentrations in tanks, originating from unpainted galvanised steel roof cladding. Lead concentrations were high compared to other studies, with 69% of rain-fed tank samples exceeding the World Health Organisation's health-based guideline of 0.01 mg/L. Further work is required to determine risks of short-term consumption of this water in emergency situations.

  18. "Bundle Data" Approach at GES DISC Targeting Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C. L.; Shen, S.; Kempler, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Severe natural phenomena such as hurricane, volcano, blizzard, flood and drought have the potential to cause immeasurable property damages, great socioeconomic impact, and tragic loss of human life. From searching to assessing the "Big", i.e., massive and heterogeneous scientific data (particularly, satellite and model products) in order to investigate those natural hazards, it has, however, become a daunting task for Earth scientists and applications researchers, especially during recent decades. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center (GES DISC) has served "Big" Earth science data, and the pertinent valuable information and services to the aforementioned users of diverse communities for years. In order to help and guide our users to online readily (i.e., with a minimum effort) acquire their requested data from our enormous resource at GES DISC for studying their targeted hazard/event, we have thus initiated a "Bundle Data" approach in 2014, first targeting the hurricane event/topic. We have recently worked on new topics such as volcano and blizzard. The "bundle data" of a specific hazard/event is basically a sophisticated integrated data package consisting of a series of proper datasets containing a group of relevant ("knowledge-based") data variables readily accessible to users via a system-prearranged table linking those data variables to the proper datasets (URLs). This online approach has been developed by utilizing a few existing data services such as Mirador as search engine; Giovanni for visualization; and OPeNDAP for data access, etc. The online "Data Cookbook" site at GES DISC is the current host for the "bundle data". We are now also planning on developing an "Automated Virtual Collection Framework" that shall eventually accommodate the "bundle data", as well as further improve our management in "Big Data".

  19. Bundle Data Approach at GES DISC Targeting Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, Chung-Lin; Shen, Suhung; Kempler, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    Severe natural phenomena such as hurricane, volcano, blizzard, flood and drought have the potential to cause immeasurable property damages, great socioeconomic impact, and tragic loss of human life. From searching to assessing the Big, i.e., massive and heterogeneous scientific data (particularly, satellite and model products) in order to investigate those natural hazards, it has, however, become a daunting task for Earth scientists and applications researchers, especially during recent decades. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center (GES DISC) has served Big Earth science data, and the pertinent valuable information and services to the aforementioned users of diverse communities for years. In order to help and guide our users to online readily (i.e., with a minimum effort) acquire their requested data from our enormous resource at GES DISC for studying their targeted hazard event, we have thus initiated a Bundle Data approach in 2014, first targeting the hurricane event topic. We have recently worked on new topics such as volcano and blizzard. The bundle data of a specific hazard event is basically a sophisticated integrated data package consisting of a series of proper datasets containing a group of relevant (knowledge--based) data variables readily accessible to users via a system-prearranged table linking those data variables to the proper datasets (URLs). This online approach has been developed by utilizing a few existing data services such as Mirador as search engine; Giovanni for visualization; and OPeNDAP for data access, etc. The online Data Cookbook site at GES DISC is the current host for the bundle data. We are now also planning on developing an Automated Virtual Collection Framework that shall eventually accommodate the bundle data, as well as further improve our management in Big Data.

  20. Geophysics in the monitoring of natural hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arafin, S.

    2005-01-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, landslides and volcanic eruptions strike every year, killing thousands of people and destroying property worth billions of dollars. Some of these can be a surprise like the 2004 Asian Tsunami. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides are usually grouped into what are termed 'geo-hazards'. Because mud volcanoes do not pose any serious threat to human life and property, they are the least studied of all geo-hazards. However, the 1997 explosive eruption of the Piparo mud volcano in Trinidad, West Indies caught many scientists and planners by surprise. It was the strongest eruption of a mud volcano ever recorded, causing extensive damage to the small town of Piparo. A description of the 1997 eruption of the Piparo mud volcano and the associated land deformation, together with a three-dimensional gravity modeling of the gravitational anomaly of the nearby Tabaquite mud volcano have been presented. From the modeling, the geometry of the mud volcano has been deciphered, and it has been shown that a large, dynamic density contrast exists at the Tabaquite volcano. The existence of a large dynamic density contrast indicates that the gravity method can be used as a potential tool for monitoring mud volcanoes. (author)

  1. Natural Hazard Preparedness in an Auckland Community: Child and Community Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, Patricia; Dirks, Kim; Neuwelt, Pat

    2014-01-01

    Community engagement in natural hazard preparedness is crucial to ensure sustainable initiatives. Children are important members of communities, and can actively contribute to community preparedness. This article presents research undertaken with 11- to 12-year-old students from a school in Auckland, New Zealand, and leaders associated with the…

  2. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...... are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...

  3. Natural radioactivity level and radiological hazard assessment of commonly used building material in Xining, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shigang Chao; Xinwei Lu; Mengmeng Zhang; Long Pang

    2014-01-01

    Natural radioactivity of the commonly used building materials in Xining of China was measured using gamma-ray spectrometer system comprising a NaI(Tl) detector. Radioactivity concentrations of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in the studied samples range from 11.6 to 120.6, 10.2 to 107.1 and 228.0 to 1,036.2 Bq kg -1 , respectively. The concentrations for these natural radionuclides were compared with the reported data of other countries and the mean value for soil. Radium equivalent activity, indoor air absorbed dose rate, annual effective dose rate as well as external and internal hazard indices were calculated to assess radiological hazards for people living in dwelling made of the building materials. The radiological hazard assessment results show that the studied building materials, except for some aerated concrete block samples, are safe for use in construction of dwellings in the study area and do not pose any significant source of radiation hazard. (author)

  4. Geoethics and natural hazards: general reflections on the relationship between geoscientists and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peppoloni, Silvia

    2013-04-01

    The development of modern science has changed the relationship between humans and natural phenomena. The great geoscientists of the past have contributed to the construction of the modern world, by revolutionizing the way in which humans perceive themselves, by changing their references of space and time inside the Universe. However, in the majority of the populations is observed the persistence of a fatalistic mentality or an attitude which believes that science can solve everything. In fact, throughout the centuries the fear of earthquakes, eruptions, floods has not changed in humans. The scientific rational approach is certainly an effective way to limit the scope of irrationality and uncertainty. The fear is not eliminable, but the proper dissemination of scientific knowledge and an adequate preparedness can help to mitigate it and transform it into an attitude of respect for the natural processes that govern the Geosphere. Therefore, geoscientists have a great responsibility towards society, which needs to face natural hazards. They have the duty to transfer knowledge and methods, to communicate information and errors, to awaken in people the interest for the phenomena and their evolution. Ultimately, geoscientists can contribute to bring science closer to society. The lack of involvement in scientific knowledge of the various components of society (citizens, politicians, mass media) can lead to two negative consequences: • the cultural and social marginalization of scientists, together with a loss of the sense of the role they can play in protecting society from natural hazards; • the tendency of people to embrace preconceived ideas in non critical way, ideas provided by a media information often incorrect, to lose good sense, until to develop fideistic attitudes based on few observed elements. In the scientific field the probabilistic method is a widespread way to analyze the natural phenomena. It allows to give an estimate of time, place and size of an

  5. Conceptualizing community resilience to natural hazards – the emBRACE framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kruse

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The level of community is considered to be vital for building disaster resilience. Yet, community resilience as a scientific concept often remains vaguely defined and lacks the guiding characteristics necessary for analysing and enhancing resilience on the ground. The emBRACE framework of community resilience presented in this paper provides a heuristic analytical tool for understanding, explaining and measuring community resilience to natural hazards. It was developed in an iterative process building on existing scholarly debates, on empirical case study work in five countries and on participatory consultation with community stakeholders where the framework was applied and ground-tested in different contexts and for different hazard types. The framework conceptualizes resilience across three core domains: (i resources and capacities, (ii actions and (iii learning. These three domains are conceptualized as intrinsically conjoined within a whole. Community resilience is influenced by these integral elements as well as by extra-community forces comprising disaster risk governance and thus laws, policies and responsibilities on the one hand and on the other, the general societal context, natural and human-made disturbances and system change over time. The framework is a graphically rendered heuristic, which through application can assist in guiding the assessment of community resilience in a systematic way and identifying key drivers and barriers of resilience that affect any particular hazard-exposed community.

  6. Communicating Volcanic Hazards in the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehn, J.; Webley, P.; Cunningham, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    For over 25 years, effective hazard communication has been key to effective mitigation of volcanic hazards in the North Pacific. These hazards are omnipresent, with a large event happening in Alaska every few years to a decade, though in many cases can happen with little or no warning (e.g. Kasatochi and Okmok in 2008). Here a useful hazard mitigation strategy has been built on (1) a large database of historic activity from many datasets, (2) an operational alert system with graduated levels of concern, (3) scenario planning, and (4) routine checks and communication with emergency managers and the public. These baseline efforts are then enhanced in the time of crisis with coordinated talking points, targeted studies and public outreach. Scientists naturally tend to target other scientists as their audience, whereas in effective monitoring of hazards that may only occur on year to decadal timescales, details can distract from the essentially important information. Creating talking points and practice in public communications can help make hazard response a part of the culture. Promoting situational awareness and familiarity can relieve indecision and concerns at the time of a crisis.

  7. Natural hazards, vulnerability and structural resilience: tsunamis and industrial tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Mebarki

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an integrated framework which deals with natural hazards (tsunamis, physical vulnerability modelling, risk of failure for industrial structures (metal structures and structural resilience provided by plastic adaptation. Simplified models are proposed to describe the run-up and wave height attenuation in case of tsunamis. The results are calibrated in the case of important tsunamis having taken place in Asian region. The mechanical vulnerability of cylindrical metal tanks erected near the shoreline is also investigated. The fragility curves are then developed in order to describe the multimodal failure: overturning, rupture of anchorages and sliding, buoyancy, excessive bending effects or buckling. Corresponding fragility curves are developed under various conditions: height of tsunami waves, filling ratios and service conditions of the tanks, friction tank/ground as well as dimensions effects. Probabilistic description of the natural hazard and the fragility curves are presented. Sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to investigate the effect of various governing parameters. Furthermore, resilience concepts and metrics are proposed. Theoretical description of the damages and post-disaster recovery functions are discussed: plastic adaptation as well as elastic and plastic attractors.

  8. French people addressing environmental hazards (Eser 2013)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pautard, Eric; Moreau, Sylvain; Bottin, Anne; Kraszewski, Marlene; Fretin, David; Carriere, Celine; Bird, Geoffrey

    2015-07-01

    This publication presents the results of a survey, conducted towards the end of 2013, of 4,700 people resident in metropolitan France and its 'departements d'outre-mer' (DOM - overseas departments). The aim of the survey was to ascertain how French people perceive natural hazards (flooding, earthquakes, climate events, cyclones, etc.) and technological hazards (industrial and nuclear) to which they may be exposed. Questioned as to whether or not they felt exposed to one or several environmental hazards in their place of residence, French people's answers varied somewhat depending on the hazard invoked and place of residence. A strong feeling of exposure was expressed most frequently in the DOM. Respondents in both metropolitan France and DOM think that atmospheric pollution is a significant hazard (56%) but their opinions diverge partially where other hazards are concerned. Natural hazards (earthquakes and flooding) are cited most frequently overseas, whereas technological hazards (industrial and nuclear) are primarily metropolitan concerns. Climate change related hazards are seen as a threat by 56% of overseas respondents and by 42% in the mother country. In general, one-third of French people think that they are exposed to more than two environmental hazards. Unlike the younger members of the population, only one-quarter of respondents of 65 years of age or over felt exposed to three or more hazards. From municipal level databases providing information on exposure to flooding and technological and climate-related hazards, the survey indicates that a large majority of respondents living in these municipalities either do not feel at risk from existing hazards or feel that the risk is low (see figure below). It is in the area of climate-related hazards that awareness of threat seems to be highest in France, and more particularly in the DOM. In the face of the flooding that could affect them, overseas populations are more aware of this natural

  9. Polution of basic natural resources with hazardous matters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pejanović Ljubo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes conceptual guidelines and a multidimensional approach to the thematic of agriculture as a land property with rich and available natural resources, which are characterized by their specifics. Specifics of natural resources are characterized by renewable and non-renewable contents without which life is impossible, and these basic contents are land, air and water. In addition, agrarians and agriculture have natural riches in their possession, out of which food for living creatures on the planet is produced. Natural resources are the contents of agrarians and with every pollution, and thus destruction of natural resources, it damages and destroys sustainability of both natural resources and the sustainability of agriculture with its content of living creatures and plants on which life and survival on this planet depend on. Any pollution, especially from hazardous substances and excessive treatment from the air and ground, causes damage, destruction and loss of life which is contained by living creatures and plant life, a prerequisite for sustainable development and the survival on Earth. The problem and aim of this paper is to point out and prove a phenomenon of the modern world, which poses a threat to the survival of natural resources, and thus life to living things and plant life on Earth. However, the aforementioned phenomenon is not a much known one, it's only known to a shortlist of scientists and theoreticians, while the general public is not aware of the mentioned and doesn't even assume the consequences of the threat.

  10. A landslide on a mudslide? Natural hazards and the right to life under the European Convention of Human Rights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauta, Kristian Cedervall; Rytter, Jens Elo

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the protection of individuals’ lives against natural hazards under the European Convention on Human Rights. In 2008, the European Court of Human Rights decided to include natural hazards in a well-established doctrine developed to protect individuals from life-threatening ...

  11. Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) Technologies for Natural Hazard Risk Site Detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wenzel, H.

    2007-01-01

    Satellite imageries and digital elevation data of Turkey are investigated for detecting sites prone to natural hazards. Digital image processing methods used to enhance satellite data and to produce morphometric maps in order to contribute to the detection of causal factors related to landslides, local site conditions influencing and/or experiencing earthquake damage intensity or those of tsunami and storm surge hazard sites at the coasts

  12. Exploring the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception via real-time hazard identification, hazard classification, and rating tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowsky, Avinoam; Oron-Gilad, Tal

    2013-10-01

    This study investigated the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception skills. These topics have previously been investigated separately, yet a novel approach is suggested where hazard awareness and risk perception are examined concurrently. Young, newly qualified drivers, experienced drivers, and a group of commercial drivers, namely, taxi drivers performed three consecutive tasks: (1) observed 10 short movies of real-world driving situations and were asked to press a button each time they identified a hazardous situation; (2) observed one of three possible sub-sets of 8 movies (out of the 10 they have seen earlier) for the second time, and were asked to categorize them into an arbitrary number of clusters according to the similarity in their hazardous situation; and (3) observed the same sub-set for a third time and following each movie were asked to rate its level of hazardousness. The first task is considered a real-time identification task while the other two are performed using hindsight. During it participants' eye movements were recorded. Results showed that taxi drivers were more sensitive to hidden hazards than the other driver groups and that young-novices were the least sensitive. Young-novice drivers also relied heavily on materialized hazards in their categorization structure. In addition, it emerged that risk perception was derived from two major components: the likelihood of a crash and the severity of its outcome. Yet, the outcome was rarely considered under time pressure (i.e., in real-time hazard identification tasks). Using hindsight, when drivers were provided with the opportunity to rate the movies' hazardousness more freely (rating task) they considered both components. Otherwise, in the categorization task, they usually chose the severity of the crash outcome as their dominant criterion. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Preparing our Workforce: Discussing Traditional and Non-Traditional Geoscience Careers - Natural hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castaldi, A.

    2013-12-01

    Many young people interested in science think that their only professional opportunities lie within academia or in some government sponsored project. The private sector is often dismissed as not providing the opportunities to a natural scientist or at least an opportunity where they can make a difference. The threat of natural disasters and in the rise of economic losses caused by these disasters as well as the potential problems brought about by climate change have opened up a number of opportunities for the natural scientist. The insurance industry and reinsurance industry is one industry looking for natural scientists and structural engineers. The insurance industry's largest singular threat comes from the risks caused by geological or atmospheric hazards. Over the last decade more and more scientists have used their seismological, hydrological, or weather related knowledge to develop new tools and technology to identify and estimate the economic and social impact due to these natural events. The insurance and reinsurance industry were one of the first industries to call attention to the risk posed by climate change. Our goal is to reduce losses and the cost to insure these losses. Our work starts with the hazard. Hazard identification is one of the best methods for reducing loss nevertheless not all areas of the world have the ability to identify these hazards. Swiss Re transforms science into application. As an example most of the world does not have flood maps to help consumers and policymakers decide which locations are highly exposed and which are not. Swiss Re used a decade of learning to develop a global set of flood maps that identifies the 100 year and 500 year flood zones. To an emerging market these maps will add them in their zoning and building considerations. Academia is a noble profession and the work completed within the university walls is the basis for what we do. Nevertheless the private sector has the ability to use this knowledge and apply

  14. UAV-based Natural Hazard Management in High-Alpine Terrain - Case Studies from Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotier, Bernadette; Adams, Marc; Lechner, Veronika

    2015-04-01

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) have become a standard tool for geodata collection, as they allow conducting on-demand mapping missions in a flexible, cost-effective manner at an unprecedented level of detail. Easy-to-use, high-performance image matching software make it possible to process the collected aerial images to orthophotos and 3D-terrain models. Such up-to-date geodata have proven to be an important asset in natural hazard management: Processes like debris flows, avalanches, landslides, fluvial erosion and rock-fall can be detected and quantified; damages can be documented and evaluated. In the Alps, these processes mostly originate in remote areas, which are difficult and hazardous to access, thus presenting a challenging task for RPAS data collection. In particular, the problems include finding suitable landing and piloting-places, dealing with bad or no GPS-signals and the installation of ground control points (GCP) for georeferencing. At the BFW, RPAS have been used since 2012 to aid natural hazard management of various processes, of which three case studies are presented below. The first case study deals with the results from an attempt to employ UAV-based multi-spectral remote sensing to monitor the state of natural hazard protection forests. Images in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) band were collected using modified low-cost cameras, combined with different optical filters. Several UAV-flights were performed in the 72 ha large study site in 2014, which lies in the Wattental, Tyrol (Austria) between 1700 and 2050 m a.s.l., where the main tree species are stone pine and mountain pine. The matched aerial images were analysed using different UAV-specific vitality indices, evaluating both single- and dual-camera UAV-missions. To calculate the mass balance of a debris flow in the Tyrolean Halltal (Austria), an RPAS flight was conducted in autumn 2012. The extreme alpine environment was challenging for both the mission and the evaluation of the aerial

  15. Fourth DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Conference: Proceedings. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-31

    This conference allowed an interchange in the natural phenomena area among designers, safety professionals, and managers. The papers presented in Volume I of the proceedings are from sessions I - VIII which cover the general topics of: DOE standards, lessons learned and walkdowns, wind, waste tanks, ground motion, testing and materials, probabilistic seismic hazards, risk assessment, base isolation and energy dissipation, and lifelines and floods. Individual papers are indexed separately. (GH)

  16. Three-dimensional displays for natural hazards analysis, using classified Landsat Thematic Mapper digital data and large-scale digital elevation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, David R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Brown, Daniel G.

    1991-01-01

    Methods are described for using Landsat Thematic Mapper digital data and digital elevation models for the display of natural hazard sites in a mountainous region of northwestern Montana, USA. Hazard zones can be easily identified on the three-dimensional images. Proximity of facilities such as highways and building locations to hazard sites can also be easily displayed. A temporal sequence of Landsat TM (or similar) satellite data sets could also be used to display landscape changes associated with dynamic natural hazard processes.

  17. Current status and issues of external event PSA for extreme natural hazards after Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, In-Kil; Hahm, Daegi; Kim, Min Kyu

    2014-01-01

    Extreme external events is emerged as significant risk contributor to the nuclear power plants after Fukushima Daiichi accident due to the catastrophic earthquake followed by great tsunami greater than a design basis. This accident shows that the extreme external events have the potential to simultaneously affect redundant and diverse safety systems and thereby induce common cause failure or common cause initiators. The probabilistic risk assessment methodology has been used for the risk assessment and safety improvement against the extreme natural hazards. The earthquake and tsunami hazard is an important issue for the nuclear industry in Korea. In this paper, the role and application of probabilistic safety assessment for the post Fukushima action will be introduced. For the evaluation of the extreme natural hazard, probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis is being performed for the safety enhancement. The research activity on the external event PSA and its interim results will be introduced with the issues to be solved in the future for the reliability enhancement of the risk analysis results. (authors)

  18. New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

    2011-12-01

    Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

  19. The cost of karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse in the United States compared with other natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weary, David J.

    2015-01-01

    Rocks with potential for karst formation are found in all 50 states. Damage due to karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse is a natural hazard of national scope. Repair of damage to buildings, highways, and other infrastructure represents a significant national cost. Sparse and incomplete data show that the average cost of karst-related damages in the United States over the last 15 years is estimated to be at least $300,000,000 per year and the actual total is probably much higher. This estimate is lower than the estimated annual costs for other natural hazards; flooding, hurricanes and cyclonic storms, tornadoes, landslides, earthquakes, or wildfires, all of which average over $1 billion per year. Very few state organizations track karst subsidence and sinkhole damage mitigation costs; none occurs at the Federal level. Many states discuss the karst hazard in their State hazard mitigation plans, but seldom include detailed reports of subsidence incidents or their mitigation costs. Most State highway departments do not differentiate karst subsidence or sinkhole collapse from other road repair costs. Amassing of these data would raise the estimated annual cost considerably. Information from insurance organizations about sinkhole damage claims and payouts is also not readily available. Currently there is no agency with a mandate for developing such data. If a more realistic estimate could be made, it would illuminate the national scope of this hazard and make comparison with costs of other natural hazards more realistic.

  20. Assessment of natural radioactivity and radiation hazard indices in different soil samples from Assiut governorate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Issa, S.A.M.; Uosif, M.A.M.; Hefni, M.A.; El-Kamel, A.H; Nesreen, A.A.

    2013-01-01

    Natural radioactive materials under certain conditions can reach hazard radiological levels. So, it becomes necessary to study the natural radioactivity levels in soil to assess the dose for the population in order to know the health risks and to have a baseline for future changes in the environmental radioactivity due to human activities. Determine the radioactivity concentration of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in surface and 20 cm soil samples collected beside Assiut fertilizer plant, Assiut government in south Upper Egypt, to assess their contribution to the external dose exposure. The contents of natural radionuclides 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K were measured in investigated samples by using gamma spectrometry [NaI (Tl) 3”x 3”]. The total absorbed dose rate, annual effective dose rate, radium equivalent, excess lifetime cancer risk and the external hazard index, which resulted from the natural radionuclides in soil, were calculated

  1. Simulation of visual search in the natural 2-D situation

    OpenAIRE

    Blanka Borin

    2004-01-01

    The goal of this research was to imitate the process of visual search in a natural two-dimensional situation and also to investigate the influence of variable features on the speed of the visual search. The experiment was designed upon one of the most influential theories in the research field of the visual search phenomenon – The Feature Integration Theory (Treisman, 1982). Although the FIT theory claims, that in case of a larger number of synchronous targets the mechanism of attention...

  2. Natural hazards in Goma and the surrounding villages, East African Rift System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balagizi, Charles M.; Kies, Antoine; Kasereka, Marcellin M.; Tedesco, Dario; Yalire, Mathieu M.; McCausland, Wendy A.

    2018-01-01

    The city of Goma and its surrounding villages (Democratic Republic of the Congo, DRC) are among the world’s most densely populated regions strongly affected by volcanic hazards. In 2002, Nyiragongo volcano erupted destroying 10–15% of Goma and forced a mass evacuation of the population. Hence, the ~ 1.5 million inhabitants of Goma and Gisenyi (Rwanda) continue to live with the threat of new lava flows and other eruptive hazards from this volcano. The current network of fractures extends from Nyiragongo summit to Goma and continues beneath Lake Kivu, which gives rise to the fear that an eruption could even produce an active vent within the center of Goma or within the lake. A sub-lacustrine volcanic eruption with vents in the floor of the main basin and/or Kabuno Bay of Lake Kivu could potentially release about 300 km3 of carbon dioxide (CO2) and 60 km3 of methane (CH4) dissolved in its deep waters that would be catastrophic to populations (~ 2.5 million people) along the lake shores. For the time being, ongoing hazards related to Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes silently kill people and animals, slowly destroy the environment, and seriously harm the health of the population. They include mazuku (CO2-rich locations where people often die of asphyxiation), the highly fluoridated surface and ground waters, and other locally neglected hazards. The volcanic gas plume causes poor air quality and acid rain, which is commonly used for drinking water. Given the large number of people at risk and the continued movement of people to Goma and the surrounding villages, there is an urgent need for a thorough natural hazards assessment in the region. This paper presents a general view of natural hazards in the region around Goma based on field investigations, CO2 measurements in mazuku, and chemistry data for Lake Kivu, rivers and rainwater. The field investigations and the datasets are used in conjunction with extremely rich-historical (1897–2000) and

  3. Multi-Hazard Interactions in Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we combine physical and social science approaches to develop a multi-scale regional framework for natural hazard interactions in Guatemala. The identification and characterisation of natural hazard interactions is an important input for comprehensive multi-hazard approaches to disaster risk reduction at a regional level. We use five transdisciplinary evidence sources to organise and populate our framework: (i) internationally-accessible literature; (ii) civil protection bulletins; (iii) field observations; (iv) stakeholder interviews (hazard and civil protection professionals); and (v) stakeholder workshop results. These five evidence sources are synthesised to determine an appropriate natural hazard classification scheme for Guatemala (6 hazard groups, 19 hazard types, and 37 hazard sub-types). For a national spatial extent (Guatemala), we construct and populate a "21×21" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 49 possible interactions between 21 hazard types. For a sub-national spatial extent (Southern Highlands, Guatemala), we construct and populate a "33×33" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 112 possible interactions between 33 hazard sub-types. Evidence sources are also used to constrain anthropogenic processes that could trigger natural hazards in Guatemala, and characterise possible networks of natural hazard interactions (cascades). The outcomes of this approach are among the most comprehensive interaction frameworks for national and sub-national spatial scales in the published literature. These can be used to support disaster risk reduction and civil protection professionals in better understanding natural hazards and potential disasters at a regional scale.

  4. Protecting against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, Jelmer

    2011-01-01

    Protection against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events Severe weather events can have considerable impact on society, including tourism organisations and tourists. Providing accurate and timely information about possible risks due to environmental

  5. Safeguarding Cultural Heritage against Climate Change and Natural Hazards through Stakeholder Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wit, Rosmarie; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Hollosi, Brigitta; Anders, Ivonne; Höfler, Angelika; Boi, Silvia; Resta, Vanni; Patrikakis, Charalampos

    2017-04-01

    Europe's cultural heritage is among the richest in the world, and draws millions of visitors to archeological sites, museums, monuments, castles, and other sites each year. The protection and conservation of European heritage is of utmost importance for our society, not only in order to preserve the European cultural identity, but also because cultural heritage is a wealth creator bringing tourism-related business opportunities on which many communities depend. However, Europe's heritage assets are extremely exposed to climate change and natural hazards, which threatens their integrity and may compromise their value. The goal of the STORM (Safeguarding Cultural Heritage through Technical and Organisational Management) project is to provide critical decision-making tools to European cultural heritage stakeholders affected by climate change and natural hazards. Here, the STORM project will be presented with a focus on climate change and natural hazard risk communication to the involved stakeholders. However, climate change communication is not a one-way process, and discussions with stakeholders are necessary to identify their specific needs. Hence, the STORM concept is tested through pilot site studies in five different countries: the Diocletian Baths in Rome, Italy; the Mellor Heritage site, Manchester, UK; the Roman Ruins of Tróia, Portugal; the Historical Centre of Rethymno on Crete, Greece and Ephesus, Izmir, Turkey. Furthermore, the past and future climatic conditions at the project's pilot sites are analysed in terms of mean state and extreme events (for example temperature and precipitation changes evident from observations and climate scenarios), which will be discussed with regard to their relevance for the local cultural heritage protection based on discussions with the stakeholders.

  6. An overview of natural hazard impacts to railways and urban transportation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bíl, Michal; Nezval, Vojtěch; Bílová, Martina; Andrášik, Richard; Kubeček, Jan

    2017-04-01

    We present an overview and two case studies of natural hazard impacts on rail transportation systems in the Czech Republic. Flooding, landsliding, heavy snowfall, windstorms and glaze (black ice) are the most common natural processes which occur in this region. Whereas flooding and landsliding usually cause direct damage to the transportation infrastructure, other hazards predominantly cause indirect losses. Railway and urban tramline networks are almost fully dependent on electricity which is provided by a system of overhead lines (electric lines above the tracks). These lines are extremely susceptible to formation of glaze which blocks conduction of electric current. A December 2014 glaze event caused significant indirect losses in the largest Czech cities and railways due to the above-mentioned process. Details of this event will be provided during the presentation. Windstorms usually cause tree falls which can affect overhead lines and physically block railway tracks. Approximately 30 % of the Czech railway network is closer than 50 m from the nearest forest. This presents significant potential for transport interruption due to falling trees. Complicated legal relations among the owners of the plots of land along railways, the environment (full-grown trees and related habitat), and the railway administrator are behind many traffic interruptions due to falling trees. We have registered 2040 tree falls between 2012 and 2015 on the railway network. A model of the fallen tree hazard was created for the entire Czech railway network. Both above-mentioned case studies provide illustrative examples of the increased fragility of the modern transportation systems which fully rely on electricity. Natural processes with a low destructive power are thereby able to cause network wide service cut-offs.

  7. The value of knowing better - Losses from natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, J.; Galarraga, I.,; Garrido, A.; Interwies, E.; van Bers, C.; Vandenberghe, V.; Farinosi, F.; Foudi, S.; Görlitz, S.; Hernández-Mora, N.; Gil, M.; Grambow, C.

    2012-04-01

    In a highly emotional speech delivered last year after a series of strikes, Julia Gilbert, the Australian PM, noted that Australia has watched in horror as day after day a new chapter in natural disaster history has been written. And so did the whole world. 2011 went on to become the costliest year in terms of natural hazard losses in the recent history, with the total costs topping 380 billion US dollars. Almost a half of the insured losses were caused by a single event - the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power plant accident triggered by a tsunami that followed an earthquake of MW 6.6 (Richer 9.0) magnitude. The Fukushima disaster has taught a costly lesson, once again: What you least expect, happens. The estimates of losses inflicted by natural hazards are, to put it mildly, incomplete and hardly representative of the ripple effects on regional and global economy, and the wider effects on social fabric, wellbeing and ecosystems that are notoriously difficult to monetise. The knowledge of the full magnitude of losses is not an end in itself. The economics of disasters is an emerging academic field, struggling to uncover the patterns of vulnerability to natural hazards, and provide insights useful for designing effective disaster risk reduction measures and policies. Yet the costly lessons learned are often neglected. In this paper we analyse selected significantly damaging events caused by hydrometeorological and climatologic events (floods and droughts) in four river basins/countries: Ebro/Spain, Po/Italy, Weser/Germany and Scheldt/Flanders-Belgium. Our analysis is focussed on identifying the gaps in reported damage estimates, and conducting additional original research and assessment that contribute to filling those gaps. In the case of drought, all the reference cases except the Ebro refer to the exceptionally hot and dry summer 2003. The drought event examined in the Ebro river basin is the prolonged period of deficient precipitation between 2004 and 2008. The

  8. Evaluation of natural phenomena hazards as part of safety assessments for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kot, C.A.; Hsieh, B.J.; Srinivasan, M.G.; Shin, Y.W.

    1995-02-01

    The continued operation of existing US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities and laboratories requires a safety reassessment based on current criteria and guidelines. This also includes evaluations for the effects of Natural Phenomena Hazards (NPH), for which these facilities may not have been designed. The NPH evaluations follow the requirements of DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation (1993) which establishes NPH Performance Categories (PCs) for DOE facilities and associated target probabilistic performance goals. These goals are expressed as the mean annual probability of exceedance of acceptable behavior for structures, systems and components (SSCs) subjected to NPH effects. The assignment of an NPH Performance Category is based on the overall hazard categorization (low, moderate, high) of a facility and on the function of an SSC under evaluation (DOE-STD-1021, 1992). Detailed guidance for the NPH analysis and evaluation criteria are also provided (DOE-STD-1020, 1994). These analyses can be very resource intensive, and may not be necessary for the evaluation of all SSCs in existing facilities, in particular for low hazard category facilities. An approach relying heavily on screening inspections, engineering judgment and use of NPH experience data (S. J. Eder et al., 1993), can minimize the analytical effort, give reasonable estimates of the NPH susceptibilities, and yield adequate information for an overall safety evaluation of the facility. In the following sections this approach is described in more detail and is illustrated by an application to a nuclear laboratory complex

  9. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  10. The Optimizer Topology Characteristics in Seismic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengor, T.

    2015-12-01

    The characteristic data of the natural phenomena are questioned in a topological space approach to illuminate whether there is an algorithm behind them bringing the situation of physics of phenomena to optimized states even if they are hazards. The optimized code designing the hazard on a topological structure mashes the metric of the phenomena. The deviations in the metric of different phenomena push and/or pull the fold of the other suitable phenomena. For example if the metric of a specific phenomenon A fits to the metric of another specific phenomenon B after variation processes generated with the deviation of the metric of previous phenomenon A. Defining manifold processes covering the metric characteristics of each of every phenomenon is possible for all the physical events; i.e., natural hazards. There are suitable folds in those manifold groups so that each subfold fits to the metric characteristics of one of the natural hazard category at least. Some variation algorithms on those metric structures prepare a gauge effect bringing the long time stability of Earth for largely scaled periods. The realization of that stability depends on some specific conditions. These specific conditions are called optimized codes. The analytical basics of processes in topological structures are developed in [1]. The codes are generated according to the structures in [2]. Some optimized codes are derived related to the seismicity of NAF beginning from the quakes of the year 1999. References1. Taner SENGOR, "Topological theory and analytical configuration for a universal community model," Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 81, pp. 188-194, 28 June 2013, 2. Taner SENGOR, "Seismic-Climatic-Hazardous Events Estimation Processes via the Coupling Structures in Conserving Energy Topologies of the Earth," The 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, Abstract no.: 31374, ABD.

  11. Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Naturals Hazards in the Caldera of Mount Bambouto (West Cameroon)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zangmo Tefogoum, G.; Kagou Dongmo, A.; Nkouathio, D. G.; Wandji, P.

    2009-04-01

    Mount Bambouto is polygenic stratovolcano of the Cameroon Volcanic Line, build between 21 Ma and 4,5Ma (Nkouathio et al., 2008). It is situated at about 200 km NE of mount Cameroon, at 09°55' and 10°15' East and, 05°25' and 05°50' Nord. This volcano covers an area of 500 Km2 and culminates at 2740 m at Meletan hill and bears a collapse caldera (13 x 8 km). Fissural, extrusive and explosive dynamism are responsible of the construction in three main stages this volcano including the edification of a sommital large rim caldera. Mount Bambouto structure gives rise to different natural hazards, of volcanological origin and meteorological origin. In the past time, landslides, floodings, firebush, blocks collapse took place in this area with catastrophic impact on the population. New research program had been carried out in the caldera concerning qualitative and quantitative evaluation of natural risks and catastrophes. The main factors of instability are rain, structure of the basement, slopes, lithology and anthropic activities; particularly, the occurrence of exceptional rainfall due to global change are relevant; this gives opportunity to draw landslides hazards zonation map of the Bambouto caldera which is the main risk in this area. We evaluate the financial potential of the caldera base on the average income of breeding, farming, school fees and the cost of houses and equipments for each family. The method of calculation revealed that, the yearly economy of the mounts Bambouto caldera represents about 2 billions FCFA. Some recommendations have been made in order to prevent and reduced the potential losses and the number of victims in particular by better land use planning. These help us to estimate the importance of destruction of the environment and biodiversity in case of catastrophes. We conclude that in the Bambouto caldera there is moderate to high probability that destructive phenomena due to landslides occurs within the upcoming years with enormous

  12. 78 FR 53190 - Pipeline Safety: Notice to Operators of Hazardous Liquid and Natural Gas Pipelines of a Recall on...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-28

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration [Docket No. PHMSA-2013-0185] Pipeline Safety: Notice to Operators of Hazardous Liquid and Natural Gas Pipelines of a Recall on Leak Repair Clamps Due to Defective Seal AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety...

  13. Natural personal care products-analysis of ingredient lists and legal situation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaschka, Ursula

    2016-01-01

    Many natural substances are classified as dangerous substances according to the European regulation on classification and labelling. Are they used in natural personal care products today? One hundred ingredient lists were analyzed to find this out. All products with natural substances contained dangerous natural substances or they contained natural substances, for which the information about their classification as dangerous substances is not available. 54 natural substances quoted in the ingredient lists were found to be classified, with 37 substances being classified due to hazardous effects for skin and eyes. However, the most frequently used natural substances are not classified as dangerous. Natural substances are multi-constituent compounds, leading to two main problems in personal care products: the potential interactions of a multitude of substances and the fact that dangerous constituents are not disclosed in the ingredient lists. For example, the fragrance allergens citral, farnesol, limonene, and linalool are frequent components of the natural substances employed. In addition, 82 products listed allergenic fragrance ingredients as single substances in their ingredient lists. Recommendations for sensitive skin in a product's name do not imply that the '26 fragrance allergens' are omitted. Furthermore, 80 products listed 'parfum'/'aroma', and 50 products listed ethanol. The data show that the loopholes for natural substances and for personal care products in the present European chemical legislation (e.g. the exception for classification and labelling of cosmetic products and the exception for information transfer in the supply chain) are not in line with an adequate consumer and environmental protection.

  14. Assessment of natural radioactivity levels and radiation hazards due to cement industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Taher, A.; Abdel Halim, A.S.

    2010-01-01

    The cement industry is considered as one of the basic industries that plays an important role in the national economy of developing countries. Activity concentrations of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in Assiut cement and other local cement types from different Egyptian factories has been measured by using γ-ray spectrometry. From the measured γ-ray spectra, specific activities were determined. The measured activity concentrations for these natural radionuclides were compared with the reported data for other countries. The average values obtained for 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K activity concentration in different types of cement are lower than the corresponding global values reported in UNSCEAR publications. The obtained results show that the averages of radiation hazard parameters for Assiut cement factory are lower than the acceptable level of 370 Bq kg -1 for radium equivalent Ra eq , 1 for level index Iγr, the external hazard index Hex ≤1 and 59 (nGy h -1 ) for absorbed dose rate. The manufacturing operation reduces the radiation hazard parameters. Cement does not pose a significant radiological hazard when used for construction of buildings.

  15. Geologic and Geophysicsal Studies of Natural Hazards and Risks in the Gulf of Peter the Great, Japan Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anokhin, Vladimir; Shcherbakov, Viktor; Motychko, Viktor; Slinchenkov, Vladimir; Sokolov, Georgy; Kotov, Sergey; Kartashov, Sergey

    2013-04-01

    The area of the Gulf of Peter the Great is socially, economically and culturally one of the most important regions for the Russian Far East. At the same time, there have been reported palpable natural hazards, which pose a real threat to local infrastructure. Complex field team of the Gramaberg VNIIOkeangeologia institute carried out geological and geophysical studies of natural hazards in the water area and coastal zone of the gulf in the summer and autumn of 2012. The research program included - geodetic deformation monitoring of the coastal zone by the HDS 3000 Leica tachometer; - echo sounding of the underwater part of the coastal slope by the LCX-37C depth sounder equipped with active external 12-channel GPS Lowrance antenna LGC-3000; - high-frequency acoustic profiling by GeoPulse Subbotom Profilier with oscillator frequency of 12.2 kHz for the study of bottom sediments to a depth of 40 m; - hydromagnetic measurements by SeaSPY Marine Magnetics magnetometer for investigation of deep geological structure; - sonar measurements by GEO SM C-MAX, 325 kHz frequency emitters for studying seafloor features; - studies of the water column (sensing and sampling); - bottom sediment sampling. Analytic work was performed by mass spectrometry, atomic absorption spectrophotometry, chromatography, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, gamma spectrometry and included the following. For water - the content of Fe, Mn, Cd, As, Pb, Cu, Co, Ni, Cr, Zn, Hg in solution and in suspension, polycyclic aromatic compounds, organochlorine pesticides, oil, methane. For sediments - grade analysis, mineralogical analysis of sand, determination of Fe, Mn, Cd, As, Pb, Cu, Co, Ni, Cr, Zn, Hg content; identification of petroleum products, polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides, the specific activity of Cs-137. As a result, a set of geological maps was composed: maps of pre-Quaternary and Quaternary rocks and deposits, lithological map, geomorphological map, map of engineering

  16. ThinkHazard!: an open-source, global tool for understanding hazard information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Nunez, Ariel; Deparday, Vivien; Saito, Keiko; Murnane, Richard; Balog, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Rapid and simple access to added-value natural hazard and disaster risk information is a key issue for various stakeholders of the development and disaster risk management (DRM) domains. Accessing available data often requires specialist knowledge of heterogeneous data, which are often highly technical and can be difficult for non-specialists in DRM to find and exploit. Thus, availability, accessibility and processing of these information sources are crucial issues, and an important reason why many development projects suffer significant impacts from natural hazards. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is currently developing a new open-source tool to address this knowledge gap: ThinkHazard! The main aim of the ThinkHazard! project is to develop an analytical tool dedicated to facilitating improvements in knowledge and understanding of natural hazards among non-specialists in DRM. It also aims at providing users with relevant guidance and information on handling the threats posed by the natural hazards present in a chosen location. Furthermore, all aspects of this tool will be open and transparent, in order to give users enough information to understand its operational principles. In this presentation, we will explain the technical approach behind the tool, which translates state-of-the-art probabilistic natural hazard data into understandable hazard classifications and practical recommendations. We will also demonstrate the functionality of the tool, and discuss limitations from a scientific as well as an operational perspective.

  17. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  18. New data for natural situation of Prebaikal region in holocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuz'min, S.B.; Dan'ko, L.V.; Snytko, V.A.; Bezrukova, E.V.; Orlova, L.A.

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of the radiocarbon dating data one performed a comprehensive study of the paragenetic series of loose deposits of the layers located in the Baikal Lake western coast central part. The main changes of the natural situations of the Baikal Lake region in the holocene were revealed to take place in the early Subatlantic period (2290+-90 14 C years ago), in the latter half of the Medieval optimum (1410 - 1040+-60 14 C years ago) and in the Cryogenic period (885+-30 - 365+-30 14 C years ago) [ru

  19. Challenge theme 6: Natural hazard risks in the Borderlands: Chapter 8 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.; Stefanov, Jim

    2013-01-01

    Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and debris flows, wildfires, hurricanes, and intense storm-induced flash floods threaten communities to varying degrees all along the United States–Mexican border. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborates with Federal, State, and local agencies to minimize the effects of natural hazards by providing timely, unbiased science information to emergency response officials, resource managers, and the public to help reduce property damage, injury, and loss of life. The USGS often mobilizes response efforts during and after a natural hazard event to provide technical and scientific counsel on recovery and response, and it has a long history of deploying emergency response teams to major disasters in both domestic and international locations. This chapter describes the challenges of natural hazards in the United States–Mexican border region and the capabilities of the USGS in the fields of hazard research, monitoring, and assessment, as well as preventative mitigation and post-disaster response.

  20. How Can Museum Exhibits Enhance Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Resiliency?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olds, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Creating a natural disaster-ready community requires interoperating scientific, technical, and social systems. In addition to the technical elements that need to be in place, communities and individuals need to be prepared to react when a natural hazard event occurs. Natural hazard awareness and preparedness training and education often takes place through informal learning at science centers and formal k-12 education programs as well as through awareness raising via strategically placed informational tsunami warning signs and placards. Museums and science centers are influential in raising science literacy within a community, however can science centers enhance earthquake and tsunami resiliency by providing hazard science content and preparedness exhibits? Museum docents and informal educators are uniquely situated within the community. They are transmitters and translators of science information to broad audiences. Through interaction with the public, docents are well positioned to be informants of the knowledge beliefs, and feelings of science center visitors. They themselves are life-long learners, both constantly learning from the museum content around them and sharing this content with visitors. They are also members of a community where they live. In-depth interviews with museum informal educators and docents were conducted at a science center in coastal Pacific Northwest. This region has a potential to be struck by a great 9+ Mw earthquake and subsequent tsunami. During the interviews, docents described how they applied learning from natural hazard exhibits at a science visitor center to their daily lives. During the individual interviews, the museum docents described their awareness (knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors) of natural hazards where they live and work, the feelings evoked as they learned about their hazard vulnerability, the extent to which they applied this learning and awareness to their lives, such as creating an evacuation plan, whether

  1. Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model (Petersen et al., 2016) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b=1.0 rather than the full catalog with b=1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in

  2. The impact of natural hazard on critical infrastructure systems: definition of an ontology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimauro, Carmelo; Bouchon, Sara; Frattini, Paolo; Giusto, Claudia

    2013-04-01

    According to the Council of the European Union Directive (2008), 'critical infrastructure' means an asset, system or part thereof which is essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. Critical infrastructure networks are exposed to natural events, such as floods, storms, landslides, earthquakes, etc. Recent natural disasters show that socio-economic consequences can be very much aggravated by the impact on these infrastructures. Though, there is still a lack of a recognized approach or methodology to assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure assets against natural threats. The difficulty to define such an approach is increased by the need to consider a very high number of natural events, which differ in nature, magnitude and probability, as well as the need to assess the vulnerability of a high variety of infrastructure assets (e.g. bridges, roads, tunnels, pipelines, etc.) To meet this challenge, the objective of the THREVI2 EU-CIPS project is to create a database linking the relationships between natural hazards and critical infrastructure assets. The query of the database will allow the end-users (critical infrastructure protection authorities and operators) to identify the relevant scenarios according to the own priorities and criteria. The database builds on an ontology optimized for the assessment of the impact of threats on critical infrastructures. The ontology aims at capturing the existing knowledge on natural hazards, critical infrastructures assets and their related vulnerabilities. Natural phenomena that can threaten critical infrastructures are classified as "events", and organized in a genetic-oriented hierarchy. The main attributes associated to each event are the probability, the magnitude and the "modus". The modus refers to the

  3. Social and economic factors of the natural risk growth: estimation of the Russian regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, E.

    2003-04-01

    Òhe vulnerability of the population and economy territorial complexes (PETC) to the influence of unfavorable and dangerous natural processes and events is determined not only by the physical parameters of natural hazards in the given region, but also by economic and social peculiarities of the PETC by itself. It depends on economy type, on PETC’s age, structure and dimensions as well as on degree of its participation in the territorial division of labor. PETC would be more vulnerable to the natural hazards impact if its population density, concentration of the industrial capacities (especially of the objects that additionally create the potential danger of the man-caused catastrophes such as nuclear-power stations, chemical enterprises, oil refineries and so on), concentration of transport and other means of communication, the technological complexity, the originality of the objects included in it as well as the originality of PETC by itself would be higher. The PETC with the unfavorable socio-political and ecological situation and underdeveloped management structures are more vulnerable. The estimation of regions by PETC vulnerability degree to the natural hazards were marked out on a base of data about the actual distribution of the natural hazards in Russia and analysis of the economic indices of the Russian Federation subjects. Among the economic indexes the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP), population density, road density, the degree of appraisal depreciation of the fixed assets, the land cultivation degree of the territory, forest share and so on were taken into account. As the analysis showed, the economic and social factors of the natural risk growth are active in the majority of the regions of the Russian Federation. Such a situation demands the increased attention of state and local authorities to this problem for lowering the economic and social constituents of the growth of natural hazards.

  4. Daring the Foolish to Take Darwin Tests: The Ethical Double Bind of Betting On Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    While couched in the framework of concentrating minds betting on natural hazards carries an ethical cost. When children dare each other to do risky things parents know that when such dares are taken harm frequently occurs. Giving those who claim that there is no hazard financial reasons to avoid ameliorative actions or to double down in support of their public stance requires a moral calculation. Challenging the conclusions of those who accept such bets while denying danger will lead them to attempt to save face by increasing risk to themselves or others. Thus such wagers, whether person to person or on betting markets, require balancing between alerting the opposing party and others to the risks of not taking action, the associated scientific consensus and the possible harmful outcomes of the bets themselves. This talk will describe strategies for minimizing potential harm while maximizing the instructive component of climate bets. Best practices include having the bet rest on a technical issue that can be authoritatively resolved in a short time. Unfortunately the nature of natural hazard risks makes it difficult to meet all of these criteria, but those making such bets should be aware of the ethical double bind

  5. Some aspects of risks and natural hazards in the rainfall variability space of Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Kanevski, Mikhaïl

    2014-05-01

    Rwanda is facing challenges related to its dispersed population and their density. Risk assessment for natural disasters is becoming important in order to reduce the extent and damages of natural disasters. Rwanda is a country with a diversity of landscapes. Its mountains and marshes have been considered as a water reserve, a forest and grazing reserve by the population (currently around 11 million). Due to geologic and climate conditions, the country is subject of different natural processes, in particular hydrological events (flooding and also landslides), but also earthquakes and volcanism, which the communities have to live with in the western part. In the last years, population expansion for land by clearing of forests and draining marshes, seems to be acting as an aggravating factor. Therefore, a risk assessment for rainfall related hazards requires a deep understanding of the precipitation patterns. Based on satellite image interpretation, historical reports of events, and the analysis of rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of events, the aim of this case study is to produce an overview and a preliminary assessment of the hazards scenario in Rwanda.

  6. Marine Extremes and Natural Hazards: when the key is variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marone, Eduardo; Camargo, Ricardo; Salcedo Castro, Julio

    2014-05-01

    At EGU2013 we used the work we are conducting regarding marine extreme events and natural hazards to exploit the distance that separate the scientific community and the non academic society, trying to show where bridges need to be built an how an ethical behavior among the scientists needs to be in place to succeed. We concluded that our actions as scientists have not been the most appropriate in communicating outside the academy our results, particularly when our findings have to do with natural hazards which could contribute to loss of life and the environmental quality that sustains it. Even if one of the barriers that separate the academy from society is the "language", too cryptic even for a well educated (not scientific) citizen in many cases, we scientists complicated even more the problems when we stop worrying about some basic concepts regarding the scientific method once upon a time were teach at basic school levels, particularly concerning differences as accuracy and precision, or the concept of uncertainty and the errors which permeate any observation or scientific "prediction". Science teaching at basic levels was not lost, but changed in the XXth century, concentrating in the so many new advancements and abandoning classical but necessary learning processes just about how sciences is done and why. When studying marine extreme events, we use statistic, stochastic methods, deterministic analysis, logical and numerical modeling, etc. However, our results are still very far away of being accurate, while our precision, however is improving just a little, it is still far away of ideal. That appears to be somehow obvious if we look just the observed vs. the modeled data. Nevertheless, if we look not the absolute values of our results, but the "rhythm" of their variability and compare these cadences with the beats observed in nature, new patterns arose, and clues about how to act regarding natural hazards and extreme events became more clear. We are being

  7. Narrowing the Insurance Protection Gap: The important role of Natural Hazards Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manghnani, V.

    2016-12-01

    The Insurance industry is a key component of the economic engine. It allows businesses to reduce uncertainty in their operations, and individuals to rebound from unanticipated events. A thriving insurance industry efficiently transfers risk from individuals and businesses to the capital markets. It allows society to function smoothly and fosters growth. In areas where the private insurance is not a viable option, the outcome is suboptimal - the society ends up carrying the burden. Higher insurance penetration increases disaster resiliency. The long term viability of an insurance product depends on the ability of the insurance provider to accurately assess risks, which is critical to pricing insurance and risk monitoring. Insurance payouts are typically incurred during extreme events, therefore the industry is very interested in extreme events research. There are several examples where the insurance industry has stepped away from a market or severely limited its appetite because of lack of data or proper understanding of the underlying risks - such as, flood. Further, the insurance Industry has seen a rising trend of natural hazard related losses over the past few decades. The trends have been particularly strong in hydro meteorological hazards. While a good part of this increasing trend can been explained by increase in exposures, there is also concern that underlying hazard landscape may be evolving. The industry would really benefit from research that identifies secular and long term trends in hydro-meteorological hazards, particularly in the extremes. Insight into non-stationarity in the climate system at a regional level would be very informative of risk management decisions. One can envision a scenario where in the industry stops insuring certain risk (such as storm surge), because of a lack of understanding of the trends in the underlying risk and a consequent poor performance record. In sum, the ability of the industry to assess complex and emerging natural

  8. Local government, political decentralisation and resilience to natural hazard-associated disasters

    OpenAIRE

    Tselios, Vasileios; Tompkins, Emma

    2017-01-01

    Natural hazards affect development and can cause significant and long-term suffering for those affected. Research has shown that sustained long-term disaster preparedness combined with appropriate response and recovery are needed to deliver effective risk reductions. However, as the newly agreed Sendai framework recognises, this knowledge has not been translated into action. This research aims to contribute to our understanding of how to deliver longer term and sustained risk reduction by eva...

  9. Creation of a common information system on the Republic of Kazakhstan radiation hazardous objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadyrzhanov, K.K.; Kuterbekov, K.A.; Lukashenko, S.N.; Morenko, V.S.; Glushchenko, V.N.

    2005-01-01

    Works on creation of a common information system on the Republic of Kazakhstan territory radiation hazardous objects for providing of radiation situation control and stewardship decision making under nature-conservative measures conducting are considered. The information system is forming on the base of up-to-date GIS system - ArcGIS - and incorporates two databases - geographical and attributive

  10. Assessment of natural radioactivity and radiological hazards in building materials used in Yan'an, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinwei; Li, Nan; Yang, Guang; Zhao, Caifeng

    2013-03-01

    The concentration of natural radionuclides in commonly used building materials collected from Yan'an, China, was determined using gamma ray spectroscopy with a NaI(Tl) detector. The activity concentration of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K in the studied building materials ranges from 9.4-73.1, 11.5-86.9, and 258.9-1,055.1 Bq kg⁻¹, respectively. The concentrations for these natural radionuclides were compared with the reported data of other countries and the world mean values for soil. The radium equivalent activity (Raeq), external hazard index (Hex), internal hazard index (Hin), indoor air absorbed dose rate, and annual effective dose rate due to natural radionuclides in samples were estimated to assess radiological hazards for people living in dwellings made of the studied building materials. The calculated Raeq values of all building materials (75.7-222.1 Bq kg⁻¹) are lower than the limit of 370 Bq kg⁻¹. The values of Hex and Hin are less than unity. The mean values of indoor air absorbed dose rates of all building materials (101.0 ± 14.1-177.0 ± 6.8 nGy h⁻¹) are higher than the world population-weighted average of 84 nGy h⁻¹, while the mean values of annual effective dose range from 0.50 ± 0.07-0.87 ± 0.03 mSv y⁻¹, which are lower than the recommended limit of 1 mSv y⁻¹. It is found that these materials may be used safely as construction materials and do not pose significant radiation hazards to inhabitants.

  11. Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

    2016-04-01

    Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further

  12. The Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risks of Austria: first results for fluvial and pluvial floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Tader, Andreas; Glade, Thomas; Neuhold, Clemens; Stiefelmeyer, Heinz

    2015-04-01

    Incoherent societal adaptation to natural processes results in significant losses every year. A better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risks, and of particular hot spots in a given region or period, is essential for reducing adverse impacts. Commonly, different hazard and risk estimations are performed within individual approaches based on tailor-made concepts. This works well as long as specific cases are considered. The advantage of such a procedure is that each individual hazard and risk is addressed in the best possible manner. The drawback, however, consists in the fact that the results differ significantly in terms of quality and accuracy and therefore cannot be compared. Hence, there is a need to develop a strategy and concept which uses similar data sources of equivalent quality in order to adequately analyze the different natural hazards and risks at broader scales. The present study is aiming to develop such a platform. The project Risk:ATlas focuses on the design of an atlas visualizing the most relevant natural hazards and, in particular, possible consequences for the entire territory of Austria. Available as a web-based tool and as a printed atlas, it is seen as a key tool to improve the basis for risk reduction, risk adaptation and risk transfer. The atlas is founded on those data sets available for the entire territory of Austria at a consistent resolution and quality. A 1 m resolution DEM and the official cadastre and building register represent the core, further data sets are employed according to the requirements for each natural hazard and risk. In this contribution, the methodology and the preliminary results for fluvial and pluvial floods and their consequences to buildings for three selected test areas in different types of landscapes (rural, urban and mountainous) are presented. Flooding depths expected for annualities of 30, 100 and 300 are derived from existing data sets for fluvial floods and are computed

  13. Bike Helmets and Black Riders: Experiential Approaches to Helping Students Understand Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S. A.; Kley, J.; Hindle, D.; Friedrich, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? These topics are challenging because they are far from normal experience, in that they involve rare events and large sums. To help students in natural hazard classes conceptualize them, we pose tough and thought-provoking questions about complex issues involved and explore them together via lectures, videos, field trips, and in-class and homework questions. We discuss analogous examples from the students' experiences, drawing on a new book "Playing Against Nature, Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World". Asking whether they wear bicycle helmets and why or why not shows the cultural perception of risk. Individual students' responses vary, and the overall results vary dramatically between the US, UK, and Germany. Challenges in hazard assessment in an uncertain world are illustrated by asking German students whether they buy a ticket on public transportation - accepting a known cost - or "ride black" - not paying but risking a heavy fine if caught. We explore the challenge of balancing mitigation costs and benefits via the question "If you were a student in Los Angeles, how much more would you pay in rent each month to live in an earthquake-safe building?" Students learn that interdisciplinary thinking is needed, and that due to both uncertainties and sociocultural factors, no unique or right strategies exist for a particular community, much the less all communities. However, we can seek robust policies that give sensible results given

  14. The hostel or the warehouse? Spatiotemporal exposure assessment for natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, S.; Keiler, M.; Zischg, A.

    2015-04-01

    A spatially explicit object-based temporal assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria is presented, including elements at risk to river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. It is shown that the repeatedly-stated assumption of increasing losses due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be opposed to the local development of building stock. While some regions have shown a clearly above-average increase in assets, other regions were characterised by a below-average development. This mirrors the topography of the country, but also the different economic activities. While hotels and hostels are extraordinary prone to mountain hazards, commercial buildings as well as buildings used for recreation purpose are considerably exposed to river flooding. Residential buildings have shown an average exposure, compared to the amount of buildings of this type in the overall building stock. In sum, around 5% of all buildings are exposed to mountain hazards, and around 9% to river flooding, with around 1% of the buildings stock being multi-exposed. It is shown that the dynamics of elements at risk exposed have a time lag once land use regulations are enforced, and it is concluded that an object-based assessment has clear advantages compared to the assessment using aggregated land use data.

  15. The role of ethics and deontology is essential must be reinforced in geosciences. Focus natural hazards and catastrophic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zango-Pascual, Marga

    2016-04-01

    Marga Zango-Pascual Area: Environmental Technologies. Department: Chemical, Physical and Natural Systems. Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Seville, Spain. mzanpas@upo.es In todaýs globalized and changing world, Natural Hazard Management is becoming a priority. It is essential for us to combine both global and interdisciplinary approaches with in-depth knowledge about the natural hazards that may cause damage to both people and property. Many catastrophic events have to see with geological hazards. Science and technology, and particularly geosciences, play an essential role. But this role is often not used, because it is not integrated into the legislation or public policy enacted by those who must manage risk to prevent disasters from occurring. Not only here and now, but also everywhere, whenever decisions are made on disaster risk reduction, we must call for the role of geology to be taken into account. And we must note that in several countries including Spain, the study of geology is being slighted in both universities and secondary education. If the discipline of geology disappears from formal education, there would be serious consequences. This warning has already been issued once and again, for instance in the 2007 Quarterly Natural Sciences Newsletter in relation to Katrina and The Tsunami in the Indian Ocean. There, the fact that knowledge of geoscience may be indispensable for attenuating the effects of natural disasters and that knowledge of geoscience benefits society always is clearly stated. And this necessarily includes generating and makings the best possible use of legislation and public policy where daily decisions are made both on risk management and everything that managing threats involves. The role of geology and geologists is essential and must be reinforced. But, we cannot forgive that is necessary to form of the professional of geology in law and ethical principles. And of course a deontological approach should be maintained. The role of

  16. The Swiss Virtual Campus Project NAHRIS: Experiences from a Multidisciplinary E-Learning Project in the Natural Hazard and Risk Management Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lienert, Christophe; Bischof, Nicole; Hurni, Lorenz

    2009-01-01

    The overall goal of the Swiss Virtual Campus project Dealing with Natural Hazards and Risk (NAHRIS) is to create a common educational course program that compiles the most recent knowledge in the field of natural hazards and risk management. Several higher education institutes from all parts of Switzerland were involved in the realization of this…

  17. Problems of sanitary-hygienic arrangements in case of emergency situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avetisov, G.M.; Borisov, B.K.; Volkov, N.N.; Grachev, M.I.; Korostin, A.S.; Prostakishin, G.P.

    1995-01-01

    The planning and carrying out sanitary-hygienic arrangements in emergency situation are based on scientific-research, organizing-methodical and practical trends of activities including: the necessity of taking into consideration the risk of sanitary-hygienic complications as a result of emergency situation; elaboration of criteria and classification of hazards potential danger of industrial plants and territories; the establishment of system of providing sanitary-hygienic measures in emergency situation; working out prophylactic measures for prevention, localization and liquidation of sanitary-hygienic after-effects of emergency situation; development of the system of control and express-analysis of hazardous factors; elaboration of rating-methodical base and arrangements aimed at protection of health and life of people. 5 refs

  18. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Natural radioactivity in soil samples of Yelagiri Hills, Tamil Nadu, India and the associated radiation hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravisankar, R.; Chandrasekaran, A.; Vijayagopal, P.; Venkatraman, B.; Senthilkumar, G.; Eswaran, P.; Rajalakshmi, A.

    2012-01-01

    The natural radioactivity of soils at Yelagiri hills has been studied in this paper. The radioactivities of 25 samples have been measured with a NaI(Tl) detector. The radioactivity concentrations of 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K ranged from ≤2.17 to 53.23, 13.54 to 89.89 and from 625.09 to 2207.3 Bq kg −1 , respectively. The measured activity concentrations for these radionuclides were compared with world average activity of soil. The average activity concentration of 232 Th in the present study is 1.19 times higher than world median value while the activity of 238 U and 40 K is found to be lower. In order to evaluate the radiological hazard of the natural radioactivity, the radium equivalent activity Ra eq , the absorbed dose rate D R , the annual effective dose rate and the external hazard index (H ex ) have been calculated and compared with the internationally approved values. The study provides background radioactivity concentrations in Yelagiri hills. - Highlights: ► Soil radioactivity is used for base line data in future impact assessment. ► We report the results of radiation hazard parameters in soils of Yelagiri hills. ► The level of the natural radiation in the studied area does not exceed the norm.

  20. HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

    2018-03-01

    The influence of social and economic change on the consequences of natural hazards has been a matter of much interest recently. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, high-resolution data on historical changes in land use, population, or assets available to study this topic. Here, we present the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) database, which contains two parts: (1) HANZE-Exposure with maps for 37 countries and territories from 1870 to 2020 in 100 m resolution and (2) HANZE-Events, a compilation of past disasters with information on dates, locations, and losses, currently limited to floods only. The database was constructed using high-resolution maps of present land use and population, a large compilation of historical statistics, and relatively simple disaggregation techniques and rule-based land use reallocation schemes. Data encompassed in HANZE allow one to "normalize" information on losses due to natural hazards by taking into account inflation as well as changes in population, production, and wealth. This database of past events currently contains 1564 records (1870-2016) of flash, river, coastal, and compound floods. The HANZE database is freely available at https://data.4tu.nl/repository/collection:HANZE" target="_blank">https://data.4tu.nl/repository/collection:HANZE.

  1. Coordination of Individual and Organizational Planning for Natural Hazards (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krantz, D. H.

    2013-12-01

    Decision making consists of constructing or selecting a plan. This is true at many levels of decision making: individuals or households, small groups, larger organizations, and governments. In each case, plans are constructed or selected taking account of the decision maker's prioritized set of active goals and the decision maker's beliefs about the probability or the extent to which each goal will be attained through a given plan. Planning for mitigation of or response to natural hazards can be improved if the plans of the many decision makers at multiple levels are coordinated. Government planning should ideally be informed by knowledge about the plans of businesses and non-profit organizations as well as knowledge about individual, household, and neighborhood plans. Similarly, plans at the individual and organizational levels should be informed by knowledge of others' plans at the same and at higher and lower levels of aggregation. Coordination can be impaired by differences in goals, differences in beliefs about the instrumentality of plans toward given goals, and also by ignorance of others' goals and plans. Good coordination requires incentives that promote sharing of plans, horizontally and vertically, and that alleviate conflicts in goals and conflicts in beliefs that will inevitably surface once plans are shared. Thus, four different kinds of decision aids are needed to improve natural hazard planning: mechanisms that support horizontal dissemination of plans, mechanisms that support vertical dissemination, mechanisms for examining goal conflicts and reducing these through plans that take others' goals into account, and mechanisms for examining belief conflicts.

  2. Joint probability safety assessment for NPP defense infrastructure against extreme external natural hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guilin, L.; Defu, L.; Huajun, L.; Fengqing, W.; Tao, Z.

    2012-01-01

    With the increasing tendency of natural hazards, the typhoon, hurricane and tropical Cyclone induced surge, wave, precipitation, flood and wind as extreme external loads menacing Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal and inland provinces of China. For all of planned, designed And constructed NPP the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane /Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations for NPP defense infrastructures. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence typhoon induced extreme external hazards and compare with IAEA 2006-2009 recommended safety regulation design criteria for some NPP defense infrastructures along China coast. (authors)

  3. Fostering Children’s Connection to Nature Through Authentic Situations: The Case of Saving Salamanders at School

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Barthel

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to explore how children learn to form new relationships with nature. It draws on a longitudinal case study of children participating in a stewardship project involving the conservation of salamanders during the school day in Stockholm, Sweden. The qualitative method includes two waves of data collection: when a group of 10-year-old children participated in the project (2015 and 2 years after they participated (2017. We conducted 49 interviews with children as well as using participant observations and questionnaires. We found indications that children developed sympathy for salamanders and increased concern and care for nature, and that such relationships persisted 2 years after participation. Our rich qualitative data suggest that whole situations of sufficient unpredictability triggering free exploration of the area, direct sensory contact and significant experiences of interacting with a species were important for children’s development of affective relationships with the salamander species and with nature in an open-ended sense. Saving the lives of trapped animals enabled direct sensory interaction, feedback, increased understanding, and development of new skills for dynamically exploring further ways of saving species in an interactive process experienced as deeply meaningful, enjoyable and connecting. The behavioral setting instilled a sense of pride and commitment, and the high degree of responsibility given to the children while exploring the habitat during authentic situations enriched children’s enjoyment. The study has implications for the design of education programs that aim to connect children with nature and for a child-sensitive urban policy that supports authentic nature situations in close spatial proximity to preschools and schools.

  4. The Situated Nature of Preschool Children's Conflict Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Thornberg, Robert

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether the peer conflict strategies of preschool children are situated and therefore vary across different conflict situations. Hypothetical conflict interviews were administered through a series of puppet shows. Participants were 178 preschool children. Results indicate that preschool children's conflict management skills are situated in peer conflict, because their strategies are to a greater or lesser degree influenced by the opponent's strategies....

  5. Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Car

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Martin; Day, Simon; Teeuw, Richard; Solana, Carmen; Sensky, Tom

    2015-04-01

    This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education. Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

  6. Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Urban Systems. An Application in Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Giovene di Girasole

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The concept of risk has become increasingly complex, and has been used not only in relation to the natural features of a region, but also to its socio-economic context. In this conceptualization, the latter directly influences the capacity of a community to cope with, recover from, and adapt to natural hazards. Conceiving vulnerability as a measure of a socio-ecological system’s resilience, and at the same time, as a multidimensional variable that changes in space and time, makes the study of the different ways in which natural hazards impact on society all the more urgent. This is particularly true for developing countries, where risk related to natural hazards affects populations and areas that must deal with stress conditions, such as humanitarian, social and military emergencies. This article presents a methodology for the analysis of social vulnerability, defined and experimented in the context of the international cooperation project “Estudio de la amenaza sísmica y vulnerabilidad física del Gran Santo Domingo”. The methodology, implemented through the employment of a Geographic Information System, led to the elaboration of a “Social Vulnerability Index” and a “Social Vulnerability Map”. These seek to describe the current condition of vulnerability of the city of Santo Domingo de Guzmán (Distrito Nacional in the Dominican Republic (DR, and are used to define context-related vulnerability scenarios, as well as to indicate the adequate set of mitigation objectives and actions. The results highlight the importance of using social vulnerability study as the point of departure for defining seismic-risk mitigation policies, emergency management, and territorial planning in order to reduce the impacts of disasters.

  7. Natural hazards Early career scientist Team (NhET), a newborn group bridging science to a broader community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, Luigi; Cigala, Valeria; Rizzi, Jonathan; Craciun, Iulya; Gain, Animesh Kumar; Albano, Raffaele

    2017-04-01

    Alongside with other major EGU divisions, Natural Hazard has recently formed his Early Career Scientist (ECS) team, known as NhET. NhET was born in 2016 and its scope includes various activities for the EGU members, the international scientific community as well as for the general public. We are a group of six early career researchers, either PhDs or Post-Docs, from different fields of Natural Hazard, keen to promote knowledge exchanges and collaborations. This is done by organizing courses, training sessions and social activities, especially targeting ECSs, during the EGU General Assembly for this year and the next to come. Outside the timeframe of the EGU conference, we constantly promote EGU contents for our division. This is done through the division website (http://www.egu.eu/nh), a mailing list (https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/nhet) and social media. With respect to the latter, a new Facebook page will be launched shortly and other platforms such as Twitter will be used to reach a broader audience. These platforms will foster the transmission of Natural Hazard topics to anyone who is interested. The main content will be researchers' interviews, information about open positions, trainings, open source software, conferences together with news on hazards and their anthropic and environmental impacts. We are NhET and we invite you all to follow and collaborate with us for a more dynamic, efficient and widespread scientific communication.

  8. Natural radioactivity and radiation hazards assessment of soil samples from the area of Tuzla and Lukavac, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasumović, Amira; Adrović, Feriz; Kasić, Amela; Hankić, Ema

    2015-01-01

    The results of activity concentration measurements of natural occurring radioactive nuclides (238)U, (235)U, (232)Th, (226)Ra, and (40)K in surface soil samples collected in the area of cities Tuzla and Lukavac, northeast region of Bosnia and Herzegovina were presented. Soil sampling was conducted at the localities that are situated in the vicinity of industrial zones of these cities. The measured activity was in the range from (8 ± 4) to (95 ± 28) Bq kg(-1) for (238)U, from (0.41 ± 0.06) to (4.6 ± 0.7) Bq kg(-1) for (235)U, from (7 ± 1) to (66 ± 7) Bq kg(-1) for (232)Th, from (6 ± 1) to (55 ± 6) Bq kg(-1) for (226)Ra, and from (83 ± 12) to (546 ± 55) Bq kg(-1) for (40)K. In order to evaluate the radiological hazard of the natural radioactivity for people living near industrial zones, the absorbed dose rate, the annual effective dose and the radium equivalent activity have been calculated and compared with the internationally approved values.

  9. Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

    2013-12-01

    Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted

  10. An Integrative Research Framework to Unravel the Interplay of Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Nohrstedt, Daniel; Mârd, Johanna; Burchardt, Steffi; Albin, Cecilia; Bondesson, Sara; Breinl, Korbinian; Deegan, Frances M.; Fuentes, Diana; Lopez, Marc Girons; Granberg, Mikael; Nyberg, Lars; Nyman, Monika Rydstedt; Rhodes, Emma; Troll, Valentin; Young, Stephanie; Walch, Colin; Parker, Charles F.

    2018-03-01

    Climate change, globalization, urbanization, social isolation, and increased interconnectedness between physical, human, and technological systems pose major challenges to disaster risk reduction (DRR). Subsequently, economic losses caused by natural hazards are increasing in many regions of the world, despite scientific progress, persistent policy action, and international cooperation. We argue that these dramatic figures call for novel scientific approaches and new types of data collection to integrate the two main approaches that still dominate the science underpinning DRR: the hazard paradigm and the vulnerability paradigm. Building from these two approaches, here we propose a research framework that specifies the scope of enquiry, concepts, and general relations among phenomena. We then discuss the essential steps to advance systematic empirical research and evidence-based DRR policy action.

  11. Hazardous materials and toxic substances - Status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommerlad, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    The paper first forecasts what the status of hazardous wastes should be in the year 2028. The author believes all the problems will be solved: no new hazardous wastes will be being generated and the current hazardous waste problems will have been cleared up by common sense engineering. He then describes the current status of waste management of hazardous wastes, the regulatory situation, as well as combustion test programs

  12. Comments on Potential Geologic and Seismic Hazards Affecting Proposed Liquefied Natural Gas Site in Santa Monica Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Lee, Homa J.; Parsons, Tom E.; Beyer, Larry A.; Boore, David M.; Conrad, James E.; Edwards, Brian D.; Fisher, Michael A.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Geist, Eric L.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Hough, Susan E.; Kayen, Robert E.; Lorenson, T.D.; Luco, Nicolas; McCrory, Patricia A.; McGann, Mary; Nathenson, Manuel; Nolan, Michael; Petersen, Mark D.; Ponti, Daniel J.; Powell, Charles L.; Ryan, Holly F.; Tinsley, John C.; Wills, Chris J.; Wong, Florence L.; Xu, Jingping

    2008-01-01

    In a letter to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dated March 25, 2008, Representative Jane Harman (California 36th district) requested advice on geologic hazards that should be considered in the review of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility off the California coast in Santa Monica Bay. In 2004, the USGS responded to a similar request from Representative Lois Capps, regarding two proposed LNG facilities offshore Ventura County, Calif., with a report summarizing potential geologic and seismic hazards (Ross and others, 2004). The proposed LNG Deepwater Port (DWP) facility includes single point moorings (SPMs) and 35 miles of underwater pipelines. The DWP submersible buoys, manifolds, and risers would be situated on the floor of the southern Santa Monica Basin, in 3,000 feet of water, about 23 miles offshore of the Palos Verdes Peninsula. Twin 24-inch diameter pipelines would extend northeastward from the buoys across the basin floor, up the basin slope and across the continental shelf, skirting north around the Santa Monica submarine canyon. Figure 1 provides locations of the project and geologic features. Acronyms are defined in table 1. This facility is being proposed in a region of known geologic hazards that arise from both the potential for strong earthquakes and geologic processes related to sediment transport and accumulation in the offshore environment. The probability of a damaging earthquake (considered here as magnitude 6.5 or greater) in the next 30 years within about 30 miles (50 km) of the proposed pipeline ranges from 16% at the pipeline's offshore end to 48% where it nears land (Petersen, 2008). Earthquakes of this magnitude are capable of producing strong shaking, surface fault offsets, liquefaction phenomena, landslides, underwater turbidity currents and debris flow avalanches, and tsunamis. As part of the DWP license application for the Woodside Natural Gas proposal in Santa Monica Bay (known as the OceanWay Secure Energy Project), Fugro

  13. Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cova, Thomas J; Dennison, Philip E; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A; Siebeneck, Laura K; Lindell, Michael K

    2017-04-01

    Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Prototype of a web - based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aye, Z.C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M.H.; van Westen, C.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and

  15. Negotiating geophysical hazards in Nepal: An interdisciplinary approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oven, Katie; Petley, Dave; Rosser, Nick; Dunn, Chris; Rigg, Jonathan

    2010-05-01

    It is widely accepted that the impact of natural hazards reflects not only the nature of geophysical processes but also the social conditions that prevail. The need for collaborative research to address these complex interactions between the natural and human systems is well recognised, however moving from theory to practice presents a number of significant challenges. How researchers frame problems; develop their research questions; select the methodologies to explore these questions; and privilege certain knowledges over others, can be seen to vary between physical and social science. Drawing on a case study examining the vulnerability of rural communities to landslides in the Upper Bhote Koshi Valley, Central Nepal, this paper explores how these barriers can be overcome and the benefits of undertaking interdisciplinary research within the natural hazards field. This research investigates the different framings of landslide risk and vulnerability from different stakeholder and disciplinary perspectives. Specifically, we ask: 1. Who is vulnerable to landslide hazard? 2. Why do people occupy landslide prone areas? 3. How do ‘at risk' rural communities perceive and respond to landslide hazard and risk? The findings, based on a series of participatory methodologies, challenge a number of assumptions made regarding landslide vulnerability in mountain communities. Within the Upper Bhote Koshi Valley clear transitions in settlement patterns, rural livelihoods and thus the occupation of landslide prone areas have been seen over time. For the majority of households, their decision to occupy these areas is driven by the economic and social benefits associated with the Arniko Highway which runs through the valley, linking Nepal with Tibet. Landslide vulnerability therefore emerges not just from societal marginalisation but also from situations of relative prosperity. The findings suggest that occupants of landslide prone areas have a good understanding of landslide hazard

  16. Hazards evaluation of plutonium metal opening and stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JOHNSON, L.E.

    1999-01-01

    Hazards evaluation is the analysis of the significance of hazardous situations associated with an activity OK process. The HE used qualitative techniques of Hazard and Operability (HazOp) analysis and What-If analysis to identify those elements of handling and thermal stabilization processing that could lead to accidents

  17. Coping strategies, stress and risk perception in a natural and industrial catastrophe risk situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Vasquez, E.

    1998-01-01

    People are exposed to different environmental risks, their manifestations harm people according to the magnitude, intensity and the number of people concerned. This subject is very ample, therefore we consider only two kinds of risks: the natural risks (especially earthquakes) that have always threatened humanity, and the industrial risks that characterise our modern society. We are interested in risk perception, stress and coping strategies in these two kinds of extreme situations. We concentrate our study on two Mexican events: an industrial explosion accident in 1984 and 1985 (big earthquake, both devastated big urban zones. The consequences were enormous at all levels: personal, psychological, social, political and economical. Facing risk situations people can have stress reactions when a sign of danger appears. According to Jean RIVOLIER (1994), these situations must not be confounded with banal events of everyday life. Stress in those cases is not the stress we confront everyday, so people have to apply other strategies to face she stress and the incidents of the kind of extreme situations. To tackle our subject we are going to review some concepts used in our study: stress, coping strategies and risk perception. (author)

  18. Natural radioactivity and associated radiation hazardous of main building materials in Yan'an, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Nan; Lu Xinwei; Yang Guang; Zhao Caifeng

    2012-01-01

    Background: With the rapidly economic development and urbanization in Yan'an city, more building materials were consumed in building construction. While the natural radioactivity level of building materials from Yan'an is limited in the literatures. Purpose: The main objective of this study is to determine the natural radioactivity level and to analyze the associated radiation hazards of building materials in Yan'an. Methods: The specific activities of natural radionuclides 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in various building materials from Yan'an city were determined using low-background gamma-ray spectrometry, and their radiation hazards were evaluated according to the standard methods. Results: The results show that the specific activities of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in the building materials are 9.4-73.1, 11.5-86.9 and 258.9-1055.1 Bq/kg, respectively. The activities of 226 Ra and 232 Th, except for sand and gravel aggregate, in all other building materials are higher than the corresponding means of local soil, and the activities of 40 K in hollow brick, red-clay brick, sand and gravel aggregate exceed the means of 40 K in soil. However, the values of internal exposure index, external exposure index and gamma radiation index in all investigated building materials are less than 1. Conclusions: The radiation levels of all analyzed building materials are within the national safety standard, which indicates that all analyzed building materials can be used anywhere and they can't cause radiation hazard to the local residents. (authors)

  19. BICAPA case study of natural hazards that trigger technological disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boca, Gabriela; Ozunu, Alexandru; Nicolae Vlad, Serban

    2010-05-01

    Industrial facilities are vulnerable to natural disasters. Natural disasters and technological accidents are not always singular or isolated events. The example in this paper show that they can occur in complex combinations and/or in rapid succession, known as NaTech disasters, thereby triggering multiple impacts. This analysis indicates that NaTech disasters have the potential to trigger hazmat releases and other types of technological accidents. Climate changes play an important role in prevalence and NATECH triggering mechanisms. Projections under the IPCC IS92 a scenario (similar to SRES A1B; IPCC, 1992) and two GCMs indicate that the risk of floods increases in central and eastern Europe. Increase in intense short-duration precipitation is likely to lead to increased risk of flash floods. (Lehner et al., 2006). It is emergent to develop tools for the assessment of risks due to NATECH events in the industrial processes, in a framework starting with the characterization of frequency and severity of natural disasters and continuing with complex analysis of industrial processes, to risk assessment and residual functionality analysis. The Ponds with dangerous technological residues are the most vulnerable targets of natural hazards. Technological accidents such as those in Baia Mare, (from January to March 2000) had an important international echo. Extreme weather phenomena, like those in the winter of 2000 in Baia Mare, and other natural disasters such as floods or earthquakes, can cause a similar disaster at Târnăveni in Transylvania Depression. During 1972 - 1978 three decanting ponds were built on the Chemical Platform Târnăveni, now SC BICAPA SA, for disposal of the hazardous-wastes resulting from the manufacture of sodium dichromate, inorganic salts, sludge from waste water purification and filtration, wet gas production from carbide. The ponds are located on the right bank of the river Târnava at about 35-50m from the flooding defense dam. The total

  20. Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications

    OpenAIRE

    Guns, M.; Vanacker, Veerle

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression. This technique, so-called rare event logisti...

  1. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Giuliani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres.

    These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction.

    Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS.

  2. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, G.; Peduzzi, P.

    2011-01-01

    With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres. These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction. Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions) and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS).

  3. Occupational safety in the nuclear power plant. The contribution of sociology to the development of a communication tool for the elimination of hazardous situations; Arbeitssicherheit im Kernkraftwerk. Der Beitrag der Sozialpsychologie zur Entwicklung eines Kommunikationsinstrumentes fuer die Behebung von Gefaehrdungssituationen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zedler, Christien [IAOP - Institut fuer Arbeitspsychologie, Organisation und Prozessgestaltung, Berlin (Germany); Huber, Veit [E.ON Kernkraft GmbH (Germany)

    2012-11-01

    Nuclear power plant companies make efforts to enhance the operational safety in the plant. Despite a variety of measures the number of accidents at work is still too high, esp. for external personnel. Social psychological considerations were used to develop communication tools for the elimination of hazardous situations, for instance by safety dialogues between employees. The observation of hazardous situations should trigger communication and discussion on the risk of the specific situation. In the contribution practical experiences and recommendations for the realization of a safety dialogue culture in the NPP Grafenrheinfeld are summarized and illustrated by examples.

  4. Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago: Volcanic terrain instability and human vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malheiro, A.

    2006-08-01

    The islands of the Azores archipelago are geologically young and located in a tectonically and volcanically active region. Not surprisingly, the islands are subject to many geological hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, and coastal erosion; some selected examples are discussed in this paper. As demonstrated by two recent earthquakes (1980, Terceira; 1998, Faial), the principal damage was related to one or more of these factors: (1) unsafe location of structures near faults; (2) unstable foundation soils; (3) poor quality of building materials and construction methods; (4) disregard of building codes; and (5) lack of building maintenance. Major landsliding events in the Azores (e.g., Ponta da Fajã, Ribeira Quente, and Fajã dos Cubres) typically are triggered by intense, long-duration precipitation and (or) earthquake-induced ground shaking. The loose, unconsolidated nature of the rocks and soils of these volcanic islands is another significant contributing factor, sometimes aggravated by ground instability caused by human activity. Coastal erosion is prevalent on the north coast of São Miguel and the south coast of Faial, mostly resulting from natural circumstances (e.g., steepness of cliffs, differential erosion, intense wave action during storms) and also from human activity (e.g., poorly engineered drainage works on cliff faces). Where severe, coastal erosion can pose a risk to populations and societal infrastructures situated near the tops of the seacliffs. To mitigate the risk of these and other geological hazards in the Azores, it is necessary to (1) prepare hazards and risks maps of the affected areas; (2) adopt prudent land-use planning that considers the hazards; (3) upgrade the building codes in the hazardous areas; (4) initiate slope-stabilization programs; (5) preserve the natural environmental integrity of the regions; and (6) educate the affected populace and governmental officials about the possibilities and consequences of hazardous

  5. Use of cloud computing technology in natural hazard assessment and emergency management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webley, P. W.; Dehn, J.

    2015-12-01

    During a natural hazard event, the most up-to-date data needs to be in the hands of those on the front line. Decision support system tools can be developed to provide access to pre-made outputs to quickly assess the hazard and potential risk. However, with the ever growing availability of new satellite data as well as ground and airborne data generated in real-time there is a need to analyze the large volumes of data in an easy-to-access and effective environment. With the growth in the use of cloud computing, where the analysis and visualization system can grow with the needs of the user, then these facilities can used to provide this real-time analysis. Think of a central command center uploading the data to the cloud compute system and then those researchers in-the-field connecting to a web-based tool to view the newly acquired data. New data can be added by any user and then viewed instantly by anyone else in the organization through the cloud computing interface. This provides the ideal tool for collaborative data analysis, hazard assessment and decision making. We present the rationale for developing a cloud computing systems and illustrate how this tool can be developed for use in real-time environments. Users would have access to an interactive online image analysis tool without the need for specific remote sensing software on their local system therefore increasing their understanding of the ongoing hazard and mitigate its impact on the surrounding region.

  6. The Situated Nature of Preschool Children's Conflict Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornberg, Robert

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether the peer conflict strategies of preschool children are situated and therefore vary across different conflict situations. Hypothetical conflict interviews were administered through a series of puppet shows. Participants were 178 preschool children. Results indicate that preschool children's conflict…

  7. Workplaces with elevated levels of exposure to natural radiation: The situation in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mjoenes, L.; Aakerblom, G.

    2002-01-01

    Because of the geological conditions with an abundance of granites and pegmatites rich in uranium and thorium together with large areas of uranium-rich alum shale, exposure from natural radiation is not unusual in certain types of industries and other work activities in Sweden. Although no representative survey of radon at regular workplaces has been performed in Sweden, smaller surveys and the high radon concentrations in dwellings indicate that workplaces with elevated radon levels are frequent in Sweden. Very high levels of indoor radon have been found in waterworks. Radon in mines has been regulated in Sweden since 1972 and radon in other workplaces since 1990. The situation in schools and day-care centres was thoroughly investigated in 2000. The estimated number of school and child care buildings with radon concentrations exceeding the action level 400 Bq/m 3 , is 800, about 200 of these have been identified and in about 100 buildings remedial measures have been taken. Regulations for natural radioactivity in building materials (for new buildings) have been in force since 1980. Lightweight concrete produced from uranium-rich alum shale was in use between 1929 and 1975. Almost 400,000 dwellings, 10 percent of the building stock, contain this material. The situation at NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material) industries is currently being investigated. Since the beginning of the 1950s it is known that residues from several industrial activities contain enhanced levels of natural radioactivity. Some examples are burnt alum shale from lime burning, radium-rich slag from metal production and waste gypsum from sulphuric acid production. The impact of the exposure from these residues is now being reinvestigated. So far no systematic search for up to now unknown work activities where substantial exposures from natural radiation could occur, has been initiated. For the protection of aircrew from cosmic radiation the responsible Swedish authorities have

  8. The California Hazards Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2006-12-01

    California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for

  9. The situation of hazardous chemical accidents in China between 2000 and 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan Weili [Institute of Safety Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong (China); Chen Guohua, E-mail: scut.safetycenter@gmail.com [Institute of Safety Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong (China); Ye Qing; Chen Qingguang [Institute of Safety Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong (China)

    2011-02-28

    From the aspects of the total quantity of accidents, regional inequality, enterprises scale and environmental pollution accidents, this study makes an analysis of hazardous chemical accidents in China for the period spanning from 2000 to 2006. The following results are obtained: firstly, there were lots of accidents and fatalities in hazardous chemical business, i.e., the number of casualty accidents fluctuated between 200 and 600/year, the number of fatality fluctuated between 220 and 1100/year. Secondly, the accident rate in developed southeast coastal areas, e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, was far higher than that in the northwest regions, e.g., Xizang, Xinjiang, and Qinghai. Thirdly, nearly 80% of dangerous chemical accidents had occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Finally, various sudden environmental pollution accidents resulted from hazardous chemicals were frequent in recent years, causing a huge damage to human and property. Then, based on the readjustment of economic structure in the last decades, the development status of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in SMEs and other factors, the paper explores the main causes, which offers valuable insight into measures that should be taken to reduce hazardous chemical accidents.

  10. The situation of hazardous chemical accidents in China between 2000 and 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Weili; Chen Guohua; Ye Qing; Chen Qingguang

    2011-01-01

    From the aspects of the total quantity of accidents, regional inequality, enterprises scale and environmental pollution accidents, this study makes an analysis of hazardous chemical accidents in China for the period spanning from 2000 to 2006. The following results are obtained: firstly, there were lots of accidents and fatalities in hazardous chemical business, i.e., the number of casualty accidents fluctuated between 200 and 600/year, the number of fatality fluctuated between 220 and 1100/year. Secondly, the accident rate in developed southeast coastal areas, e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, was far higher than that in the northwest regions, e.g., Xizang, Xinjiang, and Qinghai. Thirdly, nearly 80% of dangerous chemical accidents had occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Finally, various sudden environmental pollution accidents resulted from hazardous chemicals were frequent in recent years, causing a huge damage to human and property. Then, based on the readjustment of economic structure in the last decades, the development status of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in SMEs and other factors, the paper explores the main causes, which offers valuable insight into measures that should be taken to reduce hazardous chemical accidents.

  11. Natural phenomena hazards evaluation of equipment and piping of Gaseous Diffusion Plant Uranium Enrichment Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singhal, M.K.; Kincaid, J.H.; Hammond, C.R.; Stockdale, B.I.; Walls, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    In support of the Gaseous Diffusion Plant Safety Analysis Report Upgrade program (GDP SARUP), a natural phenomena hazards evaluation was performed for the main process equipment and piping in the uranium enrichment buildings at Paducah and Portsmouth gaseous diffusion plants. In order to reduce the cost of rigorous analyses, the evaluation methodology utilized a graded approach based on an experience data base collected by SQUG/EPRI that contains information on the performance of industrial equipment and piping during past earthquakes. This method consisted of a screening walkthrough of the facility in combination with the use of engineering judgment and simple calculations. By using these screenings combined with evaluations that contain decreasing conservatism, reductions in the time and cost of the analyses were significant. A team of experienced seismic engineers who were trained in the use of the DOE SQUG/EPRI Walkdown Screening Material was essential to the success of this natural phenomena hazards evaluation

  12. Natural phenomena hazards evaluation of equipment and piping of Gaseous Diffusion Plant Uranium Enrichment Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singhal, M.K.; Kincaid, J.H.; Hammond, C.R.; Stockdale, B.I.; Walls, J.C. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Technical Programs and Services; Brock, W.R.; Denton, D.R. [Lockheed Martin Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1995-12-31

    In support of the Gaseous Diffusion Plant Safety Analysis Report Upgrade program (GDP SARUP), a natural phenomena hazards evaluation was performed for the main process equipment and piping in the uranium enrichment buildings at Paducah and Portsmouth gaseous diffusion plants. In order to reduce the cost of rigorous analyses, the evaluation methodology utilized a graded approach based on an experience data base collected by SQUG/EPRI that contains information on the performance of industrial equipment and piping during past earthquakes. This method consisted of a screening walkthrough of the facility in combination with the use of engineering judgment and simple calculations. By using these screenings combined with evaluations that contain decreasing conservatism, reductions in the time and cost of the analyses were significant. A team of experienced seismic engineers who were trained in the use of the DOE SQUG/EPRI Walkdown Screening Material was essential to the success of this natural phenomena hazards evaluation.

  13. Radiofrequency Identification by using Drones in Railway Accidents and Disaster Situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Géza Károly Kiss Leizer

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Today, railway operation procedures include the transportation of large amount of hazardous substances. Our research has been motivated by the desire to find concrete and urgent solutions to the safety issues of handling waste generated manly in case of accidents and disaster situations during the transportation of hazardous substances In order to ensure safety in the transportation of dangerous goods, and to facilitate the fast and efficient waste handling of hazardous substances released into the environment during unexpected events, we have elaborated a new method, in which we suggest the radiofrequency identification of dangerous consignments in case of disaster situations by the use of drones.

  14. Review article: the use of remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPASs) for natural hazards monitoring and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordan, Daniele; Hayakawa, Yuichi; Nex, Francesco; Remondino, Fabio; Tarolli, Paolo

    2018-04-01

    The number of scientific studies that consider possible applications of remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPASs) for the management of natural hazards effects and the identification of occurred damages strongly increased in the last decade. Nowadays, in the scientific community, the use of these systems is not a novelty, but a deeper analysis of the literature shows a lack of codified complex methodologies that can be used not only for scientific experiments but also for normal codified emergency operations. RPASs can acquire on-demand ultra-high-resolution images that can be used for the identification of active processes such as landslides or volcanic activities but can also define the effects of earthquakes, wildfires and floods. In this paper, we present a review of published literature that describes experimental methodologies developed for the study and monitoring of natural hazards.

  15. GRASPING THE NATURE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS ASTEROIDS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perna, D.; Barucci, M. A.; Fornasier, S.; Deshapriya, J. D. P. [LESIA—Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, CNRS, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 5 place Jules Janssen, F-92195 Meudon (France); Dotto, E.; Ieva, S.; Epifani, E. Mazzotta [INAF—Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, Via Frascati 33, I-00040 Monte Porzio Catone (Roma) (Italy); Bernardi, F. [SpaceDyS, via Mario Giuntini 63, I-56023 Cascina (Pisa) (Italy); Luise, F. De [INAF—Osservatorio Astronomico di Teramo, via Mentore Maggini snd, I-64100 Teramo (Italy); Perozzi, E. [Deimos Space, Strada Buchesti 75-77, Bucharest (Romania); Rossi, A. [IFAC—CNR, via Madonna del Piano 10, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino (Firenze) (Italy); Micheli, M., E-mail: davide.perna@obspm.fr [ESA—NEOCC, ESRIN, via Galileo Galilei 64, I-00044 Frascati (Rome) (Italy)

    2016-01-15

    Through their delivery of water and organics, near-Earth objects (NEOs) played an important role in the emergence of life on our planet.  However, they also pose a hazard to the Earth, as asteroid impacts could significantly affect our civilization. Potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) are those that, in principle, could possibly impact the Earth within the next century, producing major damage. About 1600 PHAs are currently known, from an estimated population of 4700 ± 1450. However, a comprehensive characterization of the PHA physical properties is still missing. Here we present spectroscopic observations of 14 PHAs, which we have used to derive their taxonomy, meteorite analogs, and mineralogy. Combining our results with the literature, we investigated how PHAs are distributed as a function of their dynamical and physical properties. In general, the “carbonaceous” PHAs seem to be particularly threatening, because of their high porosity (limiting the effectiveness of the main deflection techniques that could be used in space) and low inclination and minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) with the Earth (favoring more frequent close approaches). V-type PHAs also present low MOID values, which can produce frequent close approaches (as confirmed by the recent discovery of a limited space weathering on their surfaces). We also identified those specific objects that deserve particular attention because of their extreme rotational properties, internal strength, or possible cometary nature. For PHAs and NEOs in general, we identified a possible anti-correlation between the elongation and the rotational period, in the range of P{sub rot} ≈ 5–80 hr. This would be compatible with the behavior of gravity-dominated aggregates in rotational equilibrium. For periods ≳80–90 hr, such a trend stops, possibly under the influence of the YORP effect and collisions. However, the statistics is very low, and further observational and theoretical work is required

  16. MONITORING AND EARLY-WARNING OF METEOROLOGICAL RISK SITUATIONS IN OLTENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BURADA CRISTINA

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Among the natural hazards affecting the human well-being and properties, meterological events are first to come in mind, due to their frequency, (immediate effects and (improving predictability. Assesment of these components are the first step in risk management, when the knowledge on the hazard type and characteristics is essential for defining the vulnerability and exposure and thus for preparing the mitigation plans. The spatial scale of dangerous meteorological situations is, in most cases, the regional one, but sometimes the area of major intensity or even the area of manifestation is small enough (e.g. hail, heavy rain showers to be classifed as ‚local’. Furthermore, other factors like the local geographical features, population density, goods and properties at risk (e.g. cultivated areas, buildings, infrastructure etc come into play in defining the severity of the weather event and/or the needs for interventions aiming to reduce the effects of the weather situation. In this context, the monitoring of potentially dangerous meteorological conditions and the improved forecasting capabilities and accuracy become increasingly important. In this paper, we present a short overview of the severe meteorological events affecting the Oltenia region along with aspects regarding their monitoring, early-warning and socio-economical impact in the area of interest, with a focus on the Dolj county during the 2013-2015 period.

  17. Landslide Hazard in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaprindashvili, George; Tsereteli, Emil; Gaprindashvili, Merab

    2014-05-01

    In the last decades of the XX century, protect the population from geological hazards, to maintain land and safe operation of the engineering facilities has become the most important social - economic, demographic, political and environmental problems for the whole world. Georgia, with its scales of origination of the natural-catastrophic processes (landslide, mudflow, rockfall, erosion and etc.), their re-occurrence and with the negative results inflicted by these processes to the population, agricultural lands and engineering objects, is one of the most complex mountainous region. The extremely sensitive conditions were conditioned by: 1. Activation of highly intense earthquakes; 2. Activation of the negative meteorological events provoking the disaster processes on the background of global climatic changes and their abnormally frequent occurrence (mostly increased atmospheric precipitations, temperature and humidity); 3. Large-scale Human impact on the environment. Following the problem urgency, a number of departmental and research institutions have made their operations more intense in the given direction within the limits of their competence. First of all, the activity of the Department of Geology of Georgia (which is at present included in the National Environmental Agency of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection), which mapped, identified and cataloged the hazardous processes on the territory of the country and identified the spatial limits and developmental regularities of these processes for tens of years. The increased risk of Geological catastrophes in Georgia first of all is caused by insufficient information between society and responsible persons toward this event. The existed situation needs the base assessment of natural disasters level, the identification of events, to determine their caused reasons, to develop special maps in GIS system, and continuous functioning of geo monitoring researches for develop safety early

  18. Economic optimization of natural hazard protection - conceptual study of existing approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spackova, Olga; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Risk-based planning of protection measures against natural hazards has become a common practice in many countries. The selection procedure aims at identifying an economically efficient strategy with regard to the estimated costs and risk (i.e. expected damage). A correct setting of the evaluation methodology and decision criteria should ensure an optimal selection of the portfolio of risk protection measures under a limited state budget. To demonstrate the efficiency of investments, indicators such as Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), Marginal Costs (MC) or Net Present Value (NPV) are commonly used. However, the methodologies for efficiency evaluation differ amongst different countries and different hazard types (floods, earthquakes etc.). Additionally, several inconsistencies can be found in the applications of the indicators in practice. This is likely to lead to a suboptimal selection of the protection strategies. This study provides a general formulation for optimization of the natural hazard protection measures from a socio-economic perspective. It assumes that all costs and risks can be expressed in monetary values. The study regards the problem as a discrete hierarchical optimization, where the state level sets the criteria and constraints, while the actual optimization is made on the regional level (towns, catchments) when designing particular protection measures and selecting the optimal protection level. The study shows that in case of an unlimited budget, the task is quite trivial, as it is sufficient to optimize the protection measures in individual regions independently (by minimizing the sum of risk and cost). However, if the budget is limited, the need for an optimal allocation of resources amongst the regions arises. To ensure this, minimum values of BCR or MC can be required by the state, which must be achieved in each region. The study investigates the meaning of these indicators in the optimization task at the conceptual level and compares their

  19. Human Computer Collaboration at the Edge: Enhancing Collective Situation Understanding with Controlled Natural Language

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-06

    conversational agent with information exchange disabled until the end of the experiment run. The meaning of the indicator in the top- right of the agent... Human Computer Collaboration at the Edge: Enhancing Collective Situation Understanding with Controlled Natural Language Alun Preece∗, William...email: PreeceAD@cardiff.ac.uk †Emerging Technology Services, IBM United Kingdom Ltd, Hursley Park, Winchester, UK ‡US Army Research Laboratory, Human

  20. Natural phenomena hazards project for Department of Energy sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coats, D.W.

    1985-01-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has developed seismic and wind hazard models for the Office of Nuclear Safety (ONS), Department of Energy (DOE). The work is part of a three-phase effort aimed at establishing uniform building design criteria for seismic and wind hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. In Phase 1, LLNL gathered information on the sites and their critical facilities, including nuclear reactors, fuel-reprocessing plants, high-level waste storage and treatment facilities, and special nuclear material facilities. In Phase 2, development of seismic and wind hazard models, was initiated. These hazard models express the annual probability that the site will experience an earthquake or wind speed greater than some specified magnitude. In the final phase, it is anticipated that the DOE will use the hazard models to establish uniform criteria for the design and evaluation of critical facilities. 13 references, 2 figures, 1 table

  1. Relationships between safety and reliability in major hazard situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.R.

    1978-01-01

    Individual risk rates for various activities are presented and discussed. The concept of societal risk is introduced -the chance of hurting many people from one event. Major hazards present a possibility that an ensuing accident could have a very wide range of consequences from the trivial to a catastrophe. The techniques of assessing risks and consequences are being developed; these are closely related to the techniques of ensuring plant and system reliability. (author)

  2. A prototype web-GIS application for risk analysis of natural hazards in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Zar Chi; Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Gerber, Christian; Lévy, Sebastien

    2016-04-01

    Following changes in the system of Swiss subsidy in January 2008, the Swiss cantons and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) were forced to prioritize different natural hazard protection projects based on their cost-effectiveness, as a response to limited financial resources (Bründl et al., 2009). For this purpose, applications such as EconoMe (OFEV, 2016) and Valdorisk (DGE, 2016) were developed for risk evaluation and prioritization of mitigation projects. These tools serve as a useful decision-making instrument to the community of practitioners and responsible authorities for natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. However, there are several aspects which could be improved, in particular, the integration and visualization of spatial information interactively through a web-GIS interface for better risk planning and evaluation. Therefore, in this study, we aim to develop an interactive web-GIS application based on the risk concepts applied in Switzerland. The purpose of this tool is to provide a rapid evaluation of risk before and after protection measures, and to test the efficiency of measures by using a simplified cost-benefit analysis within the context of different protection projects. This application allows to integrate different layers which are necessary to calculate risk, in particular, hazard intensity (vector) maps for different scenarios (such as 30, 100 and 300 years of return periods based on Swiss guidelines), exposed objects (such as buildings) and vulnerability information of these objects. Based on provided information and additional parameters, risk is calculated automatically and results are visualized within the web-GIS interface of the application. The users can modify these input information and parameters to create different risk scenarios. Based on the resultant risk scenarios, the users can propose and visualize (preliminary) risk reduction measures before realizing the actual design and dimensions of such protective

  3. Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei

    2015-04-01

    In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

  4. International School and Workshop on Nonlinear Mathematical Physics and Natural Hazards

    CERN Document Server

    Kouteva-Guentcheva, Mihaela

    2015-01-01

    This book is devoted to current advances in the field of nonlinear mathematical physics and modeling of critical phenomena that can lead to catastrophic events. Pursuing a multidisciplinary approach, it gathers the work of scientists who are developing mathematical and computational methods for the study and analysis of nonlinear phenomena and who are working actively to apply these tools and create conditions to mitigate and reduce the negative consequences of natural and socio-economic disaster risk. This book summarizes the contributions of the International School and Workshop on Nonlinear Mathematical Physics and Natural Hazards, organized within the framework of the South East Europe Network in Mathematical and Theoretical Physics (SEENET MTP) and supported by UNESCO. It was held at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences from November 28 to December 2, 2013. The contributions are divided into two major parts in keeping with the scientific program of the meeting. Among the topics covered in Part I (Nonlinear...

  5. Natural hazard management high education: laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and applied geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giosa, L.; Margiotta, M. R.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.; Albano, R.; Cappa, G.; Giammatteo, C.; Pagliuca, R.; Piccolo, G.; Statuto, D.

    2009-04-01

    The Environmental Engineering Faculty of University of Basilicata have higher-level course for students in the field of natural hazard. The curriculum provides expertise in the field of prediction, prevention and management of earthquake risk, hydrologic-hydraulic risk, and geomorphological risk. These skills will contribute to the training of specialists, as well as having a thorough knowledge of the genesis and the phenomenology of natural risks, know how to interpret, evaluate and monitor the dynamic of environment and of territory. In addition to basic training in the fields of mathematics and physics, the course of study provides specific lessons relating to seismic and structural dynamics of land, environmental and computational hydraulics, hydrology and applied hydrogeology. In particular in this course there are organized two connected examination arguments: Laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and Applied geomorphology. These course foresee the development and resolution of natural hazard problems through the study of a real natural disaster. In the last year, the work project has regarded the collapse of two decantation basins of fluorspar, extracted from some mines in Stava Valley, 19 July 1985, northern Italy. During the development of the course, data and event information has been collected, a guided tour to the places of the disaster has been organized, and finally the application of mathematical models to simulate the disaster and analysis of the results has been carried out. The student work has been presented in a public workshop.

  6. A relação entre o social e o natural nas abordagens de hazards e de desastres The relation between the social and the natural in the approach of hazards and disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Antônio Mattedi

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available O artigo aborda as teorias dos Hazards e dos Desastres. Nos últimos anos estas duas tradições teóricas têm recebido novos impulsos pela renovação de seus marcos de referência conceitual. Construídas em torno de uma longa tradição de pesquisa empírica, estas teorias explicam os impactos provocados por fenômenos como enchentes, terremotos, tornados e epidemias mediante a integração analítica das dimensões natural e social. Neste sentido, seu estudo pode fornecer subsídios para a interpretação destes problemas no Brasil.The article deals with the theory of hazards and disasters. Over the past years, these two theoretical traditions have received new impulse through the renovation of their conceptual foundations. Constructed around a long tradition of empirical research, these theories explain the impacts brought by phenomena like floods, earthquakes, tornadoes and epidemics through the analytical integration of social and natural dimensions. In this regard, its study may provide grants in order to interpret these problems in Brazil.

  7. RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s

  8. Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are increasingly applied to mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards. To compare the effect of EWS with alternative risk reduction measures and to optimize their design and operation, their reliability and effectiveness must be quantified. In the present contribution, a framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural hazards is presented. The system reliability is classically represented by the Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of False Alarms (PFA). We demonstrate how the EWS effectiveness, which is a measure of risk reduction, can be formulated as a function of POD and PFA. To model the EWS and compute the reliability, we develop a framework based on Bayesian Networks, which is further extended to a decision graph, facilitating the optimization of the warning system. In a case study, the framework is applied to the assessment of an existing debris flow EWS. The application demonstrates the potential of the framework for identifying the important factors influencing the effectiveness of the EWS and determining optimal warning strategies and system configurations. - Highlights: • Warning systems are increasingly applied measures to reduce natural hazard risks. • Bayesian Networks (BN) are powerful tools to quantify warning system's reliability. • The effectiveness is defined to assess the optimality of warning systems. • By extending BNs to decision graphs, the optimal warning strategy is identified. • Sensors positioning significantly influence the effectiveness of warning systems

  9. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of Natural External Hazards Including Earthquakes. Workshop Proceedings, Prague, Czech Republic, 17-20 June 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The Fukushima Dai-ichi accident triggered discussions about the significance of external hazards and their treatment in safety analyses. In addition, stress tests results have shown vulnerabilities and potential of cliff-edge effects in plant responses to external hazards and have identified possibilities and priorities for improvements and safety measures' implementation at specific sites and designs. In order to address these issues and provide relevant conclusions and recommendations to CSNI and CNRA, the CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRISK) directed, in cooperation with the CSNI Working Group on Integrity and Ageing of Components and Structures (WGIAGE), a workshop hosted by UJV Rez. The key objectives of the workshop were to collect information from the OECD member states on methods and approaches being used, and experience gained in probabilistic safety assessment of natural external hazards, as well as to support the fulfillment of the CSNI task on 'PSA of natural external hazards including earthquakes'. These objectives are described more in detail in the introduction in Chapter 1 of this report. The WGRISK activities preceding the workshop and leading to the decision to organize it are described in Chapter 2 of this report. The focus of the workshop was on external events PSA for nuclear power plants, including all modes of operation. The workshop scope was generally limited to external, natural hazards, including those hazards where the distinction between natural and man-made hazards is not sharp. The detailed information about the presentations, discussions, and results of the workshop is presented in Chapter 3 of this report. Some general conclusions were agreed on during the workshop, which are presented in the following paragraphs. - The lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactor accidents and related actions at the national, regional, and global level have emphasized the importance to assess risks associated (authors) with

  10. The impact of expert knowledge on natural hazard susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Caroline; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve

    2016-04-01

    Road and railway networks are one of the key factors to a country's economic growth. Inadequate infrastructural networks could be detrimental to a society if the transport between locations are hindered or delayed. Logistical hindrances can often be avoided whereas natural hindrances are more difficult to control. One natural hindrance that can have a severe adverse effect on both infrastructure and society is flooding. Intense and heavy rainfall events can trigger other natural hazards such as landslides and debris flow. Disruptions caused by landslides are similar to that of floods and increase the maintenance cost considerably. The effect on society by natural disasters is likely to increase due to a changed climate with increasing precipitation. Therefore, there is a need for risk prevention and mitigation of natural hazards. Determining susceptible areas and incorporating them in the decision process may reduce the infrastructural harm. Spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) is a part of decision analysis, which provides a set of procedures for analysing complex decision problems through a Geographic Information System (GIS). The objective and aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgements for inundation, landslide and debris flow susceptibility assessments through a SMCA approach using hydrological, geological and land use factors. The sensitivity of the SMCA model was tested in relation to each perspective and impact on the resulting susceptibility. A least cost path function was used to compare new alternative road lines with the existing ones. This comparison was undertaken to identify the resulting differences in the susceptibility assessments using expert judgements as well as historic incidences of flooding and landslides in order to discuss the usefulness of the model in road planning.

  11. The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xueqin [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); School of Social Development and Public Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Li, Ning [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Yuan, Shuai, E-mail: syuan@nmemc.org.cn [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China)

    2015-12-15

    As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

  12. The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

    2015-01-01

    As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

  13. Natural Hazards Education in the Himalayan Region of Ladakh, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel; Tostevin, Rosalie

    2015-04-01

    Here we present a review of a geohazards education and engagement project in the Indian region of Ladakh. Located in the Indian Himalaya, Ladakh is home to historically-disadvantaged and endangered indigenous groups. It is also an area of extreme topography, climate and vulnerability, with a growing tourist industry. This combination of factors makes it an important region to improve geohazards understanding and observe the complex interactions between nature, society, and culture. This project: (i) delivered a geoscience education programme, in conjunction with a range of local and international partners, to multiple schools in the region; (ii) utilised interactive demonstrations to teach students about the key physical dynamics of landslides and earthquakes; and (iii) integrated aspects of physical and social science within the teaching, to give students a holistic understanding of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. In total three programmes were delivered, to a range of different ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds. This presentation will particularly highlight (i) the importance of delivering material in a culturally appropriate way, (ii) challenges regarding the sustainability of delivering high quality geoscience education projects, and (iii) ways in which geoscience education outreach can be mainstreamed into overseas research visits.

  14. Emergency situations; Les situations d'urgence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    The nuclear activities are exercised so as to prevent the accidents. They are subjected to a rule whom application is controlled by the Asn. The risk of grave accident is so limited to a very low level of probability. He cannot be however completely pushed aside. The expression ' radiological emergency situation ' indicates a situation which ensues from an incident or of an accident risking to lead to an emission of radioactive materials or a level of radioactivity susceptible to strike a blow at the public health. The term ' nuclear crisis ' is used for the events which can lead to a radiological emergency situation on a nuclear basic installation or during a transport of radioactive materials. The preparation and the management of emergency situations, that they are of natural, accidental or terrorist origin, became a major concern of our society. We propose you of to know more about it in this file. (N.C.)

  15. Tourism facing the challenge of recurring natural hazards: a view from Cancún

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Babinger

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the duality between economic development based on tourism and the impact of land occupation at the expense of an environment that includes specific natural hazards. The transformation of coastal areas to be occupied by tourism is one of the serious problems which are not taken into account when planning the activity. Cancún is a paradigmatic model in which an explosive growth in tourists, residents and tourist buildings has led to the massive occupation of a coastal are...

  16. Identification of glacial flood hazards in karakorum range using remote sensing technique and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashraf, A.; Roohi, R.; Naz, R.

    2011-01-01

    Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are great hazard for the downstream communities in context of changing climatic conditions in the glaciated region of Pakistan. The remote sensing data of Landsat ETM+ was utilized for the identification of glacial lakes susceptible to posing GLOF hazard in Karakoram Range. Overall, 887 glacial lakes are identified in different river-basins of Karakoram Range, out of which 16 lakes are characterized as potentially dangerous in terms of GLOF. The analysis of community's response to GLOF events of 2008 in the central Karakoram Range indicated gaps in coordination and capacity of the local communities to cope with such natural hazards. A regular monitoring of hot spots and potential GLOF lakes along with capacity- of local communities and institutions in coping future disaster situation is necessary, especially in the context of changing climatic conditions in Himalayan region. (author)

  17. An emerging methodology of slope hazard assessment for natural gas pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Z.J.; O' Neil, G.; Rizkalla, M. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2000-07-01

    A new slope assessment methodology has been developed by TransCanada PipeLines Ltd. in an effort to switch from a reactive to a proactive hazard management approach and to optimize maintenance expenditure. The company operates 37,000 km of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines, portions of which traverse slopes and stream crossings. The newly developed rainfall-ground movement model provides site-specific ground movement predictions for approximately 1100 slopes and establishes a risk-ranked list of slopes upon which maintenance decisions can be based. The input to the predictive model is derived from internal and public information regarding site conditions. This information serves as input to a pipe-soil interaction model to determine the probability of pipeline failure for each slope. The ground movement for this model is limited to creep-type which is typically less than 100 mm per year. Landslides are not addressed in this paper. A system-wide database has been constructed for slopes to prioritize the slope movement hazards. The slope information includes geotechnical data such as bedrock geology, surficial geology, slope details, precipitation and erosion potential. Information related to the pipeline includes the location, age, size, as well as design pressure and temperature. 13 refs., 2 figs.

  18. Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually

  19. Flood hazards in an urbanizing watershed in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatim O. Sharif

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Riyadh, the capital of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has experienced unusual levels of urbanization in the past few decades, making it one of the fastest growing cities in the world. This paper examines flood hazards in the rapidly urbanizing catchment of Al-Aysen in Riyadh. Remote sensing and geographic information system techniques were employed to obtain and prepare input data for hydrologic and hydraulic models, with the former based on the very popular curve number approach. Due to the limited nature of the rainfall data, observations from two rain gauges in the vicinity of the catchment were used to estimate design storms. The hydrologic model was run in a semi-distributed mode by dividing the catchment into many sub-catchments. The impact of urbanization on run-off volume and peak discharge resulting from different storms was investigated, with various urbanization scenarios simulated. Flood hazard zones and affected streets were also identified through hydrologic/hydraulic model simulation. The mismatch between administrative and catchment boundaries can create problems in flood risk management for similar cities since hydrologic processes and flood hazards are based on the hydrologic connectivity. Since flooding events impact the road network and create driving hazards, governmental decision-makers must take the necessary precautions to protect drivers in these situations.

  20. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  1. Web-Based Geospatial Tools to Address Hazard Mitigation, Natural Resource Management, and Other Societal Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearn,, Paul P.

    2009-01-01

    Federal, State, and local government agencies in the United States face a broad range of issues on a daily basis. Among these are natural hazard mitigation, homeland security, emergency response, economic and community development, water supply, and health and safety services. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) helps decision makers address these issues by providing natural hazard assessments, information on energy, mineral, water and biological resources, maps, and other geospatial information. Increasingly, decision makers at all levels are challenged not by the lack of information, but by the absence of effective tools to synthesize the large volume of data available, and to utilize the data to frame policy options in a straightforward and understandable manner. While geographic information system (GIS) technology has been widely applied to this end, systems with the necessary analytical power have been usable only by trained operators. The USGS is addressing the need for more accessible, manageable data tools by developing a suite of Web-based geospatial applications that will incorporate USGS and cooperating partner data into the decision making process for a variety of critical issues. Examples of Web-based geospatial tools being used to address societal issues follow.

  2. Distributed GIS for automated natural hazard zonation mapping Internet-SMS warning towards sustainable society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devanjan Bhattacharya

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Today, open systems are needed for real time analysis and warnings on geo-hazards and over time can be achieved using Open Source Geographical Information System (GIS-based platform such as GeoNode which is being contributed to by developers around the world. To develop on an open source platform is a very vital component for better disaster information management as far as spatial data infrastructures are concerned and this would be extremely vital when huge databases are to be created and consulted regularly for city planning at different scales, particularly satellite images and maps of locations. There is a big need for spatially referenced data creation, analysis, and management. Some of the salient points that this research would be able to definitely contribute with GeoNode, being an open source platform, are facilitating the creation, sharing, and collaborative use of geospatial data. The objective is development of an automated natural hazard zonation system with Internet-short message service (SMS warning utilizing geomatics for sustainable societies. A concept of developing an internet-resident geospatial geohazard warning system has been put forward in this research, which can communicate alerts via SMS. There has been a need to develop an automated integrated system to categorize hazard and issue warning that reaches users directly. At present, no web-enabled warning system exists which can disseminate warning after hazard evaluation at one go and in real time. The objective of this research work has been to formalize a notion of an integrated, independent, generalized, and automated geo-hazard warning system making use of geo-spatial data under popular usage platform. In this paper, a model of an automated geo-spatial hazard warning system has been elaborated. The functionality is to be modular in architecture having GIS-graphical user interface (GUI, input, understanding, rainfall prediction, expert, output, and warning modules. A

  3. Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume

  4. Geoeducation and Geoethics: Implications in natural hazards communication and preservation of architectonic heritage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Dolores; Martinez-Frías, Jesus; Mantovani, Franco

    2014-05-01

    In the framework of the ERASMUS Intensive Programme (IP) on "Global Heritage and Sustainability: Geological, Cultural and Historical", a round table was organised on "Geoeducation and Geoethics in Earth and Planetary Sciences" taking advantage of the role of the IP coordinator also being responsible for the "Heritage Stone Task Group" (HSTG) at IUGS and in addition the presence of the responsible for the "IUGS Commission on Geoscience Education, Training and Technology Transfer" (IUGS-COGE) and President of the International Association of Geoethics (IAGETH). Another responsible for the round table was an expert on natural risks. This topic formed an important part of the program of this IP, that in 2013 was celebrating its third and final edition. This round table was one of the first exchanges of views among different IUGS commissions and task groups. It offered a very good opportunity to analyse how aware is the scientific community about the importance of education and ethics in communicating natural hazards risks and their relationship preserving architectonic heritage, which was the main subject of the Intensive Programme. Eighteen participants contributed to the event with the following backgrounds: Geology, Engineering Geology, Architecture, Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Civil Protection and English Philology. All participants were either undergraduate students or graduate students, at a Masters and Doctoral level from the following countries: Spain, Portugal, Italy and Hungary. The purpose of this study is to establish an initial link between geoethics and geoeducation when teaching university students at different levels of subject such as natural hazards risks communication and the preservation of architectonic heritage. The respective IUGS Commissions and Task Groups can lead the debate. This work was sponsored by the ERASMUS Intensive Programme 2012-1-ES1-ERA10-54375 and it was done within the framework of the IUGS Heritage Stone Task

  5. Determining the explosion risk level and the explosion hazard area for a group of natural gas wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gligor, A.; Petrescu, V.; Deac, C.; Bibu, M.

    2016-11-01

    Starting from the fact that the natural gas engineering profession is generally associated with a high occupational risk, the current paper aims to help increase the safety of natural gas wells and reduce the risk of work-related accidents, as well as the occurrence of professional illnesses, by applying an assessment method that has proven its efficiency in other industrial areas in combination with a computer-aided design software. More specifically, the paper focuses on two main research directions: assessing the explosion risk for employees working at natural gas wells and indicating areas with a higher explosion hazard by using a modern software that allows their presentation in 3D. The appropriate zoning of industrial areas allows to group the various functional areas function of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous element, such as an explosive atmosphere and subsequently it allows also to correctly select the electrical and mechanical equipment that will be used in that area, since electrical apparatuses that are otherwise found in normal work environments cannot generally be used in areas with explosion hazard, because of the risk that an electric spark, an electrostatic discharge etc. ignites the explosive atmosphere.

  6. High-Precision and Low Latency RT-GNSS Processed Data for Diverse Geophysical and Natural Hazard Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Sievers, Charlie; David, Phillips; Charles, Meertens; Glen, Mattioli

    2017-04-01

    UNAVCO has been providing infrastructure and support for solid-earth sciences and earthquake natural hazards for the past two decades. Recent advances in GNSS technology and data processing are now providing position solutions with centimeter-level precision at high-rate (>1 Hz) and low latency (i.e. the time required for data to arrive for analysis, in this case less than 1 second). These data have the potential to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami sources, and thus profoundly transform rapid event characterization and warning. Scientific and operational applications also include glacier and ice sheet motions; tropospheric modeling; and space weather. These areas of geophysics represent a spectrum of research fields, including geodesy, seismology, tropospheric weather, space weather and natural hazards. Processed Real-Time GNSS (RT-GNSS) data will require formats and standards that allow this broad and diverse community to use these data and associated meta-data in existing research infrastructure. These advances have critically highlighted the difficulties associated with merging data and metadata between scientific disciplines. Even seemingly very closely related fields such as geodesy and seismology, which both have rich histories of handling large volumes of data and metadata, do not go together well in any automated way. Community analysis strategies, or lack thereof, such as treatment of error prove difficult to address and are reflected in the data and metadata. In addition, these communities have differing security, accessibility and reliability requirements. We propose some solutions to the particular problem of making RT-GNSS processed solution data and metadata accessible to multiply scientific and natural hazard communities. Importantly, we discuss the roadblocks encounter and solved and those that remain to be addressed.

  7. 77 FR 61826 - Pipeline Safety: Communication During Emergency Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-11

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration [Docket No... liquefied natural gas pipeline facilities that operators should immediately and directly notify the Public.... Background Federal regulations for gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and hazardous liquid pipeline facilities...

  8. Toxic hazards of underground excavation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.; Chitnis, V.; Damasian, M.

    1982-09-01

    Inadvertent intrusion into natural or man-made toxic or hazardous material deposits as a consequence of activities such as mining, excavation or tunnelling has resulted in numerous deaths and injuries in this country. This study is a preliminary investigation to identify and document instances of such fatal or injurious intrusion. An objective is to provide useful insights and information related to potential hazards due to future intrusion into underground radioactive-waste-disposal facilities. The methodology used in this study includes literature review and correspondence with appropriate government agencies and organizations. Key categories of intrusion hazards are asphyxiation, methane, hydrogen sulfide, silica and asbestos, naturally occurring radionuclides, and various mine or waste dump related hazards

  9. Toxic hazards of underground excavation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, R.; Chitnis, V.; Damasian, M.; Lemm, M.; Popplesdorf, N.; Ryan, T.; Saban, C.; Cohen, J.; Smith, C.; Ciminesi, F.

    1982-09-01

    Inadvertent intrusion into natural or man-made toxic or hazardous material deposits as a consequence of activities such as mining, excavation or tunnelling has resulted in numerous deaths and injuries in this country. This study is a preliminary investigation to identify and document instances of such fatal or injurious intrusion. An objective is to provide useful insights and information related to potential hazards due to future intrusion into underground radioactive-waste-disposal facilities. The methodology used in this study includes literature review and correspondence with appropriate government agencies and organizations. Key categories of intrusion hazards are asphyxiation, methane, hydrogen sulfide, silica and asbestos, naturally occurring radionuclides, and various mine or waste dump related hazards.

  10. Hyperspectral Cubesat Constellation for Rapid Natural Hazard Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandl, D.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Ly, V. T.; Handy, M.; Ong, L.; Crum, G.

    2015-12-01

    With the advent of high performance space networks that provide total coverage for Cubesats, the paradigm for low cost, high temporal coverage with hyperspectral instruments becomes more feasible. The combination of ground cloud computing resources, high performance with low power consumption onboard processing, total coverage for the cubesats and social media provide an opprotunity for an architecture that provides cost-effective hyperspectral data products for natural hazard response and decision support. This paper provides a series of pathfinder efforts to create a scalable Intelligent Payload Module(IPM) that has flown on a variety of airborne vehicles including Cessna airplanes, Citation jets and a helicopter and will fly on an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) hexacopter to monitor natural phenomena. The IPM's developed thus far were developed on platforms that emulate a satellite environment which use real satellite flight software, real ground software. In addition, science processing software has been developed that perform hyperspectral processing onboard using various parallel processing techniques to enable creation of onboard hyperspectral data products while consuming low power. A cubesat design was developed that is low cost and that is scalable to larger consteallations and thus can provide daily hyperspectral observations for any spot on earth. The design was based on the existing IPM prototypes and metrics that were developed over the past few years and a shrunken IPM that can perform up to 800 Mbps throughput. Thus this constellation of hyperspectral cubesats could be constantly monitoring spectra with spectral angle mappers after Level 0, Level 1 Radiometric Correction, Atmospheric Correction processing. This provides the opportunity daily monitoring of any spot on earth on a daily basis at 30 meter resolution which is not available today.

  11. Hazards and hazard combinations relevant for the safety of nuclear power plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Kurt; Brinkman, Hans; Raimond, Emmanuel

    2017-04-01

    The potential of the contemporaneous impact of different, yet causally related, hazardous events and event cascades on nuclear power plants is a major contributor to the overall risk of nuclear installations. In the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, which was caused by a combination of severe ground shaking by an earthquake, an earthquake-triggered tsunami and the disruption of the plants from the electrical grid by a seismically induced landslide, hazard combinations and hazard cascades moved into the focus of nuclear safety research. We therefore developed an exhaustive list of external hazards and hazard combinations which pose potential threats to nuclear installations in the framework of the European project ASAMPSAE (Advanced Safety Assessment: Extended PSA). The project gathers 31 partners from Europe, North Amerika and Japan. The list comprises of exhaustive lists of natural hazards, external man-made hazards, and a cross-correlation matrix of these hazards. The hazard list is regarded comprehensive by including all types of hazards that were previously cited in documents by IAEA, the Western European Nuclear Regulators Association (WENRA), and others. 73 natural hazards and 24 man-made external hazards are included. Natural hazards are grouped into seismotectonic hazards, flooding and hydrological hazards, extreme values of meteorological phenomena, rare meteorological phenomena, biological hazards / infestation, geological hazards, and forest fire / wild fire. The list of external man-made hazards includes industry accidents, military accidents, transportation accidents, pipeline accidents and other man-made external events. The large number of different hazards results in the extremely large number of 5.151 theoretically possible hazard combinations (not considering hazard cascades). In principle all of these combinations are possible to occur by random coincidence except for 82 hazard combinations that - depending on the time scale - are mutually

  12. Measurement of natural radioactivity and radiation hazards for some natural and artificial building materials available in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muntean, L.E.; Moldovan, D.V.

    2014-01-01

    As building materials are known to be the second source regarding high radon concentrations, it is very important to determine the amounts of natural radionuclides from every building material in use. In the present study the most frequently used Romanian natural (sand, gypsum, limestone) and artificial (portland cement, lime, clinker, electrofilter powder, fly ash, cement-lime plaster mortar, cement plaster mortar) building materials were analyzed. The absorbed dose rate and the annual effective dose equivalent rate for people living in dwelling buildings made of these building materials under investigation were also calculated. The analysis was performed with gamma-ray spectrometry, with two hyper-pure germanium detectors. The activity concentrations of natural radionuclides were in the ranges: 5.2-511.8 Bq kg - 21 for 226 Ra; 0.6-92.6 Bq kg -1 for 232 Th and -1 for 40 K, respectively. The radium equivalent activity in the fifty-one (51) samples varied from 9 to 603 Bq kg -1 . By calculating all the radioactivity indices (R aeq , H ext , I α , I yr ) it was found that all the building materials under investigation can be used to erect dwelling buildings. Except for sample SA6, SA7 and SA11 among the natural building materials and sample SG1, SG2, FAH1, CLM1, CM1 among the artificial building materials that are considered hazardous materials when are used in large quantities. (author)

  13. Disseminating near-real-time hazards information and flood maps in the Philippines through Web-GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco; Racoma, Bernard Alan; Aracan, Ken Adrian; Alconis-Ayco, Jenalyn; Saddi, Ivan Lester

    2017-09-01

    The Philippines being a locus of tropical cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. These natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property. Situated in a region where climate and geophysical tempest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. In 2012, the Philippines launched a responsive program for disaster prevention and mitigation called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), specifically for government warning agencies to be able to provide a 6hr lead-time warning to vulnerable communities against impending floods and to use advanced technology to enhance current geo-hazard vulnerability maps. To disseminate such critical information to as wide an audience as possible, a Web-GIS using mashups of freely available source codes and application program interface (APIs) was developed and can be found in the URLs http://noah.dost.gov.ph and http://noah.up.edu.ph/. This Web-GIS tool is now heavily used by local government units in the Philippines in their disaster prevention and mitigation efforts and can be replicated in countries that have a proactive approach to address the impacts of natural hazards but lack sufficient funds. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Radioecological situation at the 'Karazhyra' coal deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panin, M.S.; Artamonova, E.N.; Medvedev, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents results of the current radiological situation in ground water within the 'Karazhyra' coal deposit. The fulfilled studies have been revealed groundwater contamination with wide variety of anthropogenic radionuclides. Analysis of the current level of radionuclide activity in ground water of the coal deposit allows considering the radionuclides to be not hazardous. Results of many-year observations gave a possibility to quantitatively describe radionuclide content in ground water as well as predict development of water-bearing horizon radiation situation for the near future. (author)

  15. Aspects of signaling hazards and of identifying opportunities in crisis situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IMBRESCU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This present research attempts to highlight some causes that have led to the current crisis, the role and importance of signals in anticipating events that characterize a situation of crisis, the need for interpreting these signals not only based on the economic theory but also on interdisciplinary methods and theories. The threats that may occur in situations of crisis should be identified properly, as well as opportunities, in order that the measures that are to be taken at macroeconomic level could be imbedded in the economic policies so as to contribute to improving the macroeconomic decisions and to successfully achieve the objectives already set.

  16. Environmental hazards from natural hydrocarbons seepage: Integrated classification of risk from sediment chemistry, bioavailability and biomarkers responses in sentinel species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benedetti, Maura; Gorbi, Stefania; Fattorini, Daniele; D'Errico, Giuseppe; Piva, Francesco; Pacitti, Davide; Regoli, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Potential effects of natural emissions of hydrocarbons in the marine environment have been poorly investigated. In this study, a multidisciplinary weight of evidence (WOE) study was carried out on a shallow seepage, integrating sediment chemistry with bioavailability and onset of subcellular responses (biomarkers) in caged eels and mussels. Results from different lines of evidence (LOEs) were elaborated within a quantitative WOE model which, based on logical flowcharts, provide synthetic indices of hazard for each LOE, before their integration in a quantitative risk assessment. Evaluations of different LOEs were not always in accordance and their overall elaboration summarized as Moderate the risk in the seepage area. This study provided first evidence of biological effects in organisms exposed to natural hydrocarbon emissions, confirming the limit of chemical characterization as stand-alone criteria for environmental quality assessment and the utility of multidisciplinary investigations to determine the good environmental status as required by Environmental Directives. -- Highlights: • Hazards from natural seepage were evaluated through a multidisciplinary WOE study. • Caged eels and mussels were chosen as bioindicator organisms. • Evaluations obtained from various LOEs were not always in accordance. • Biological effects of natural hydrocarbons release were demonstrated. • WOE approach could discriminate different levels of hazard in low impacted conditions. -- A multidisciplinary WOE study in a shallow coastal seepage summarized a Moderate level of risk based on integration of sediment chemistry with biological effects in caged organisms

  17. Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiele-Eich, I.; Aßheuer, T.; Simmer, C.; Braun, B.

    2009-04-01

    Similar to many megacities in the world, Dhaka is regularly threatened by natural hazards. Risks associated with floods and cyclones in particular are expected to increase in the years to come because of global climate change and rapid urbanization. Greater Dhaka is expected to grow from 13.5 million inhabitants in 2007 to 22 million inhabitants by 2025. The vast majority of this growth will take place in informal settlements. Due to the setting of Greater Dhaka in a deltaic plain, the sprawl of slums is primarily taking place in wetlands, swamps and other flood-prone areas. Slum dwellers and informal businesses are vulnerable, but have somehow learned to cope with seasonal floods and developed specific adaptation strategies. An increase of precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones, however, would put considerable stress on the adaptability of the social and economic system. DhakaHazard, a joint research project of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Bonn and the Department of Geography at the University of Cologne, takes up these issues in an interdisciplinary approach. The project, which begun in November 2008, aims to achieve two main objectives: To link analyses of informal social and economic adaptation strategies to models on future climate change and weather extremes. To estimate more accurately the future frequency and magnitude of weather extremes and floods which are crucial for the future adaptability of informal systems. To fulfill these objectives, scientists at the Meteorological Institute are studying the evolution of natural hazards in Bangladesh, while researchers at the Department of Geography are undertaking the task of assessing these hazards from a social point of view. More specifically, the meteorologists are identifying global and regional weather conditions resulting in flooding of the Greater Dhaka region, while possible variations in flood-inducing weather patterns are analyzed by evaluating their frequency and magnitude

  18. FEMA DFIRM Flood Hazard Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — FEMA flood hazard delineations are used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to designate the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) and for insurance rating...

  19. A Competence-Based Science Learning Framework Illustrated through the Study of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyao, Sheila G.; Holbrook, Jack; Rannikmäe, Miia; Pagunsan, Marmon M.

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a competence-based learning framework for science teaching, applied to the study of "big ideas", in this case to the study of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction (NH&DRR). The framework focuses on new visions of competence, placing emphasis on nurturing connectedness and behavioral actions toward…

  20. Energy situation - Forth quarter 2016. Energy situation October 2016; Energy situation November 2016; Energy situation December 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guggemos, Fabien; Misak, Evelyne; Mombel, David; Moreau, Sylvain

    2017-02-01

    This publication presents, first, a quarterly report of the French energy situation: primary energy consumption, energy independence and CO_2 emissions, national production, imports, exports, energy costs, average and spot prices. Data are presented separately for solid mineral fuels, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity. Month-to-month details are summarized in a second part, in the form of tables and graphs

  1. Energy situation - First quarter 2017. Energy situation January 2017; Energy situation February 2017; Energy situation March 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guggemos, Fabien; Misak, Evelyne; Mombel, David; Moreau, Sylvain

    2017-05-01

    This publication presents, first, a quarterly report of the French energy situation: primary energy consumption, energy independence and CO_2 emissions, national production, imports, exports, energy costs, average and spot prices. Data are presented separately for solid mineral fuels, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity. Month-to-month details are summarized in a second part, in the form of tables and graphs

  2. Hazard Ranking Methodology for Assessing Health Impacts of Unconventional Natural Gas Development and Production: The Maryland Case Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meleah D Boyle

    Full Text Available The recent growth of unconventional natural gas development and production (UNGDP has outpaced research on the potential health impacts associated with the process. The Maryland Marcellus Shale Public Health Study was conducted to inform the Maryland Marcellus Shale Safe Drilling Initiative Advisory Commission, State legislators and the Governor about potential public health impacts associated with UNGDP so they could make an informed decision that considers the health and well-being of Marylanders. In this paper, we describe an impact assessment and hazard ranking methodology we used to assess the potential public health impacts for eight hazards associated with the UNGDP process. The hazard ranking included seven metrics: 1 presence of vulnerable populations (e.g. children under the age of 5, individuals over the age of 65, surface owners, 2 duration of exposure, 3 frequency of exposure, 4 likelihood of health effects, 5 magnitude/severity of health effects, 6 geographic extent, and 7 effectiveness of setbacks. Overall public health concern was determined by a color-coded ranking system (low, moderately high, and high that was generated based on the overall sum of the scores for each hazard. We provide three illustrative examples of applying our methodology for air quality and health care infrastructure which were ranked as high concern and for water quality which was ranked moderately high concern. The hazard ranking was a valuable tool that allowed us to systematically evaluate each of the hazards and provide recommendations to minimize the hazards.

  3. Situating Hazard Vulnerability: People's Negotiations with Wildfire Environments in the U.S. Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Timothy W.; Bolin, Bob

    2009-09-01

    This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona’s White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people’s social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.

  4. A Writing Intensive Course in "Natural Disasters: Geoethics and the Layman"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, P.

    2011-12-01

    One course with a contemporary ethics focus is a graduation requirement under the University of Hawaii at Manoa's General Education rules. The goal of the University of Hawaii General Education Committee is to encourage faculty to design ethics-focus courses for each field of undergraduate concentration. Undergraduate students are also required to take 5 writing intensive courses. It is permitted to combine the ethics and writing intensive foci in a given course, as long as one third of the course is devoted to each focus. The course I designed uses current disasters as the subject matter, thus course content varies from year to year. The prerequisite for enrollment is one introductory course in geoscience, to ensure students are familiar with basic geologic processes. I bring in geo-professionals, active in the fields we study, to discuss with students the realities of dealing with civil authorities, elected officials, the media, and the public during a natural disaster. This is one of the aspects of the course the students most enjoy. Such a course could be designed for any locality. Learning outcomes by which the students' work is assessed are as follows. The best student: (1) clearly identifies the inherent ethical choices and implications involved in the professional geoscientist's role during contemporary natural hazard situations; (2) gives evidence of understanding the effects of perspective, context, personal views as pertains to natural hazards; (3) specifies the decision-makers and stakeholders involved in hazard situations; (4) integrates clear descriptions of relevant ethical ambiguities/dilemmas into the overall analysis of a given hazard situation; (5) draws upon frameworks, principles of ethics to develop pertinent arguments and/or positions; (6) develops and presents alternate arguments/positions; (7) discusses and/or debates ethical issues with sensitivity to others' perspectives and the context, while also defending own position with logic and

  5. A conceptual approach to the use of Cost Benefit and Multi Criteria Analysis in natural hazard management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Gamper

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making for protection measures against natural hazards entails major complexities for final decision makers. The issue in question does not only implicate a variety of criteria that need to be considered but also scarce financial resources make the allocation decision a difficult task. Furthermore, these decisions appear to be multidisciplinary in nature. Stakeholders from experts over politicians and the public are among the affected parties in making and dealing with the consequences of such decisions. In order to capture the complexity that arises when incorporating the varieties of interests as well as impacts protection measures have on the environment, the economy and society, transparent and multidisciplinary decision support techniques are needed. This paper looks at how Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA, a tool already applied to decisions concerning protective measures, and Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA, even though new to the field as such but already successfully practiced in other environmental areas, perform according to the abovementioned criteria. A conceptual overview of the methodologies will be given along with a discussion of the respective strengths and weaknesses. Looking at past applications, this overview gives an analysis about the potential of socio economics in its contribution to natural hazard research.

  6. Assessing the indirect effects due to natural hazards on a mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, C.; Schwarze, R.

    2009-04-01

    Measuring indirect economic costs and other effects from natural hazards, especially floods in alpine and other mountainous regions, are a necessary part of a comprehensive economic assessment. Their omission seriously affects the relative economic benefits of structural or non structural measures of flood defence. Surpassing controversial, IO-model-based economic estimates, analysing indirect economic effects lead to the key question of identifying and evaluating the drivers of indirect economic effects and resilience to system effects in the regional economy, i.e. at the meso-level. This investigation takes place for the catastrophic floods in summer 2005 in the provinces of Tyrol and Vorarlberg, Austria, which caused an estimated € 670 Mio direct loss on private and public assets and severe interruptions in lifeline services. The paper starts out with differentiating the concept of indirect economic costs from direct costs, examing different temporal (short vs. long-term) and spatial (macro-, meso- vs. microeconomic) system boundaries. It surveys common theories of economic resilience and vulnerability at the regional economy level. Indirect effects at the regional economy level can be defined as interferences of the economic exchange of goods and services triggered by breakdowns of transport lines and critical production inputs. The extent and persistence of indirect effects of natural hazards is not only by parameters of the extreme event, such as duration and amplitude of the flood, but much more by resilience parameters of the regional economy such as size of enterprises, the network structure (linkages) of the regional economy, availability of insurance and relief funds, and the stock of inventory. These effects can only be dissected by means of expert judgement and event studies. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted among business practioneers, members of chamber of commerce, civil protection agencies to identify and scale the drivers of

  7. Natural hazards and self-organized criticality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krenn, R.

    2012-01-01

    Several natural hazards exhibit power-law behavior on their frequency-size distributions. Self-organized criticality has become a promising candidate that could offer a more in-depth understanding of the origin of temporal and spatial scaling in dissipative nonequilibrium systems. The outcomes of this thesis are presented in three scientific papers followed by a concluding summary and an appendix.In paper (A) we present a semi-phenomenological approach to explain the complex scaling behavior of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model (DS-FFM) in two dimensions. We derive the scaling exponent solely from the scaling exponent of the clusters' accessible perimeter. Furthermore, the unusual transition to an exponential decay is explained both qualitatively and quantitatively. The exponential decay itself could be reproduced at least qualitatively. In paper (B) we extend the DS-FFM towards anthropogenic ignition factors. The main outcomes are an increase of the scaling exponent with decreasing lightning probability as well as a splitting of the partial frequency-size distributions of lightning induced and man made fires. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results could be validated through an analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database.In paper (C) we obtain an almost complete theory of the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model's complex spatio-temporal behavior. Synchronization pushes the system towards a critical state and generates the Gutenberg-Richter law. Desynchronization prevents the system from becoming overcritical and generates foreshocks and aftershocks. Our approach also provides a simple explanation of Omori's law. Beyond this, it explains the phenomena of foreshock migration and aftershock diffusion and the occurrence of large earthquakes without any foreshocks. A novel integer algorithm for the numerics is presented in appendix (A).(author) [de

  8. Emergency situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The nuclear activities are exercised so as to prevent the accidents. They are subjected to a rule whom application is controlled by the Asn. The risk of grave accident is so limited to a very low level of probability. He cannot be however completely pushed aside. The expression ' radiological emergency situation ' indicates a situation which ensues from an incident or of an accident risking to lead to an emission of radioactive materials or a level of radioactivity susceptible to strike a blow at the public health. The term ' nuclear crisis ' is used for the events which can lead to a radiological emergency situation on a nuclear basic installation or during a transport of radioactive materials. The preparation and the management of emergency situations, that they are of natural, accidental or terrorist origin, became a major concern of our society. We propose you of to know more about it in this file. (N.C.)

  9. Results of the round table "Impact of natural and man-made hazards on urban areas"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru-Dan, Maria; Olga Gociman, Cristina; Hostiuc, Constantin; Mihaila, Marina; Gheorghe (Popovici), Diana Alexandra; Anghelache, Mirela Adriana; Dutu, Andreea; Tascu-Stavre, Miroslav

    2015-04-01

    On Thursday the 6th of November a round table was organised at the Centre of Architectural and Urban Studies of the "Ion Mincu" University of Architecture and Urban Planning on the topic of this session. It included a review of the previous editions, and an outlook to the edition this year. We shared publications, and a publication is in work from the round table itself. The series of round tables at the Centre of Architectural and Urban Studies is an innitiative of Constantin Hostiuc, the secretary general of the centre. This round table was organised by Maria Bostenaru Dan, and moderated by Cristina Olga Gociman, who currently runs a project on a related topic. From the various ways to approach the effects of hazards, up to the disatrous ones, on urban areas, we consider the most suitable the approach to the impact. From the point of view of natural sciences and of the engineering ones this was approached a number of times, and newly social sciences are included as well. The role of planning and design for a better prevention, and even post-disaster intervention is ignored many times though. The goal of the round table was to bring together multidisciplinary approaches (architecture, urban planning, seismology, geography, structural engineering, ecology, communication sciences, art history) on a problem set from this point of view. Discussed topics were: 1. Assessment and mapping methods of the impact of natural hazards on urban areas (preventive, postdisaster) 2. Visualisation and communication techniques of the assessed impact, including GIS, internet, 3D 3. Strategies for the reduction of the impact of natural hazards on urban areas 4. Suitable methods of urban design for the mitigation of the effects of disasters in multihazard case 5. Partnership models among the involved actors in the decision process for disaster mitigaton 6. Urban planning instruments for risc management strategies (ex. master plan) 7. Lessons learned from the relationship between hazard

  10. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    demonstrated and sufficient justification of hazard assessment protocols; (b) a more complete learning of the actual range of earthquake hazards to local communities and populations, and (c) a more ethically responsible control over how seismic hazard and seismic risk is implemented to protect public safety. It follows that the international project GEM is on the wrong track, if it continues to base seismic risk estimates on the standard method to assess seismic hazard. The situation is not hopeless and could be improved dramatically due to available geological, geomorphologic, seismic, and tectonic evidences and data combined with deterministic pattern recognition methodologies, specifically, when intending to PREDICT PREDICTABLE, but not the exact size, site, date, and probability of a target event. Understanding the complexity of non-linear dynamics of hierarchically organized systems of blocks-and-faults has led already to methodologies of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis and intermediate-term middle- to narrow-range earthquake prediction algorithms tested in real-time applications over the last decades. It proves that Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such info in advance extreme catastrophes, which are LOW PROBABILITY EVENTS THAT HAPPEN WITH CERTAINTY. Geoscientists must initiate shifting the minds of community from pessimistic disbelieve to optimistic challenging issues of neo-deterministic Hazard Predictability.

  11. Assessment And Management Of Natural Hazards And Disasters Along Qena-Safaga Road, Central Eastern Desert, Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azab, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    Hazard assessment studies are necessary to identify the investigated area along Qena-Safaga road, between km 20 - km 30 from Qena City, where extensive damage has constantly been reported. This damage includes, asphalt road, breaking of the potable water pipeline, tilting of tower line and telephone poles, as well as of Safaga-Abu Tartur railroad. These types of damage result from tectonic activity around the Qena-Safaga district. The structural and seismic maps are used to interpret and evaluate the deep-seated structures and the tectonic setting of the study area. Strong ground motion is the most important phenomenon of natural hazard. It has an effect on the nature, human life and man-made structures. Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing are useful tools in disaster management for the study area. These automated tools are used for the storage, analysis and visualization all geological and geophysical data of the investigated area to the decision support. Also, by using the Landsat image acquired in 2001 and Aerial photograph dated 1955 reveals that, the spatial deformation of the recent surface features has been estimated during 46 years

  12. 2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2017-01-01

    We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude (M) ≥4 and 3 M≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

  13. Site characterization criteria (DOE-STD-1022-94) for natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, J.C.; Ueng, T.S.; Boissonnade, A.C.

    1995-12-01

    This paper briefly summarizes requirements of site characterization for Natural Phenomena Hazards (NPH) at DOE sites. In order to comply with DOE Order 5480.28, site characterization criteria has been developed to provide site-specific information needed for development of NPH assessment criteria. Appropriate approaches are outlined to ensure that the current state-of-the-art methodologies and procedures are used in the site characterization. General and detailed site characterization requirements are provided in the areas of meteorology, hydrology, geology, seismology and geotechnical studies

  14. Multihazard risk analysis and disaster planning for emergency services as a basis for efficient provision in the case of natural hazards - case study municipality of Au, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maltzkait, Anika; Pfurtscheller, Clemens

    2014-05-01

    Multihazard risk analysis and disaster planning for emergency services as a basis for efficient provision in the case of natural hazards - case study municipality of Au, Austria A. Maltzkait (1) & C. Pfurtscheller (1) (1) Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research (IGF), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria The extreme flood events of 2002, 2005 and 2013 in Austria underlined the importance of local emergency services being able to withstand and reduce the adverse impacts of natural hazards. Although for legal reasons municipal emergency and crisis management plans exist in Austria, they mostly do not cover risk analyses of natural hazards - a sound, comparable assessment to identify and evaluate risks. Moreover, total losses and operational emergencies triggered by natural hazards have increased in recent decades. Given sparse public funds, objective budget decisions are needed to ensure the efficient provision of operating resources, like personnel, vehicles and equipment in the case of natural hazards. We present a case study of the municipality of Au, Austria, which was hardly affected during the 2005 floods. Our approach is primarily based on a qualitative risk analysis, combining existing hazard plans, GIS data, field mapping and data on operational efforts of the fire departments. The risk analysis includes a map of phenomena discussed in a workshop with local experts and a list of risks as well as a risk matrix prepared at that workshop. On the basis for the exact requirements for technical and non-technical mitigation measures for each natural hazard risk were analysed in close collaboration with members of the municipal operation control and members of the local emergency services (fire brigade, Red Cross). The measures includes warning, evacuation and, technical interventions with heavy equipment and personnel. These results are used, first, to improve the municipal emergency and crisis management plan by providing a risk map, and a

  15. Simulation of visual search in the natural 2-D situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanka Borin

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research was to imitate the process of visual search in a natural two-dimensional situation and also to investigate the influence of variable features on the speed of the visual search. The experiment was designed upon one of the most influential theories in the research field of the visual search phenomenon – The Feature Integration Theory (Treisman, 1982. Although the FIT theory claims, that in case of a larger number of synchronous targets the mechanism of attention serially directs the mental processing from one target towards another, the results of our experiment has shown the possibility of not just serial but also parallel visual search. The results of the experiment have also shown that the similarity between features of the target and its surroundings takes effect on the speed of the target recognition. If the features are very similar or if there is no difference between the target and its surroundings, the visual search for the target is longer in comparison to the visual search for the target, which features don't resemble the target's surroundings.

  16. Identification of natural hazards and classification of urban areas by TOPSIS model (case study: Bandar Abbas city, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasool Mahdavi Najafabadi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, among multi-criteria models for complex decision-making and multiple-attribute models for assigning the most preferable choice, the technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution (TOPSIS is implied. The main objective of this research is to identify potential natural hazards in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, using TOPSIS model, which is based on an analytical hierarchy process structure. A set of 12 relevant geomorphologic parameters, including earthquake frequency, distance from the earthquake epicentre, number of faults, flood, talus creep, landslide, land subsidence, tide, hurricane and tidal wave, dust storms with external source, wind erosion and sea level fluctuations are considered to quantify inputs of the model. The outputs of this study indicate that one region, among three assessed regions, has the maximum potential occurrence of natural hazards, while it has been urbanized at a greater rate compared to other regions. Furthermore, based on Delphi method, the earthquake frequency and the landslide are the most and the least dangerous phenomena, respectively.

  17. Special Issue "Impact of Natural Hazards on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru Dan, M.

    2009-04-01

    This special issue includes selected papers on the topic of earthquake impact from the sessions held in 2004 in Nice, France and in 2005 in Vienna, Austria at the first and respectivelly the second European Geosciences Union General Assembly. Since its start in 1999, in the Hague, Netherlands, the hazard of earthquakes has been the most popular of the session. The respective calls in 2004 was for: Nature's forces including earthquakes, floods, landslides, high winds and volcanic eruptions can inflict losses to urban settlements and man-made structures such as infrastructure. In Europe, recent years have seen such significant losses from earthquakes in south and south-eastern Europe, floods in central Europe, and wind storms in western Europe. Meanwhile, significant progress has been made in understanding disasters. Several scientific fields contribute to a holistic approach in the evaluation of capacities, vulnerabilities and hazards, the main factors on mitigating urban disasters due to natural hazards. An important part of the session is devoted to assessment of earthquake shaking and loss scenarios, including both physical damage and human causalities. Early warning and rapid damage evaluation are of utmost importance for addressing the safety of many essential facilities, for emergency management of events and for disaster response. In case of earthquake occurrence strong motion networks, data processing and interpretation lead to preliminary estimation (scenarios) of geographical distribution of damages. Factual information on inflicted damage, like those obtained from shaking maps or aerial imagery permit a confrontation with simulation maps of damage in order to define a more accurate picture of the overall losses. Most recent developments towards quantitative and qualitative simulation of natural hazard impacts on urban areas, which provide decision-making support for urban disaster management, and success stories of and lessons learned from disaster

  18. Geotechnical hazards from large earthquakes and heavy rainfalls

    CERN Document Server

    Kazama, Motoki; Lee, Wei

    2017-01-01

    This book is a collection of papers presented at the International Workshop on Geotechnical Natural Hazards held July 12–15, 2014, in Kitakyushu, Japan. The workshop was the sixth in the series of Japan–Taiwan Joint Workshops on Geotechnical Hazards from Large Earthquakes and Heavy Rainfalls, held under the auspices of the Asian Technical Committee No. 3 on Geotechnology for Natural Hazards of the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering. It was co-organized by the Japanese Geotechnical Society and the Taiwanese Geotechnical Society. The contents of this book focus on geotechnical and natural hazard-related issues in Asia such as earthquakes, tsunami, rainfall-induced debris flows, slope failures, and landslides. The book contains the latest information and mitigation technology on earthquake- and rainfall-induced geotechnical natural hazards. By dissemination of the latest state-of-the-art research in the area, the information contained in this book will help researchers, des...

  19. A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in diverse European natural hazard contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G.; Tweed, F.

    2012-04-01

    Risks are always managed within a broader context of relationships between governments, citizens, civil society and private business; these relationships shift and evolve over time with changing political currents and economic conditions. In Europe over the past 20 years or so, there has been a move away from government towards a broader practice of 'governance', a shift that is as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as it is to other societal concerns such as housing, economic regeneration or transport. Key characteristics of this change include the emergence of multi-level governance processes and the 'hollowing out' of the nation state; moves away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors specific to each policy area; the creation of new forms of authority and control; and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the full diversity of European national contexts and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is open to analysis and debate. In this paper, we propose a framework for profiling risk governance approaches in relation to key characteristics identified in both the general governance literature and in more specific work on risk governance. This framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national/regional context and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of nine governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as illustrating how it can be used in a process of discussion and debate about risk governance issues. We provide examples of the ways in which the profiling approach can enable comparison between risk governance contexts and approaches, and how it can be used in a variety of potential settings.

  20. Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2016-08-01

    This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability

  1. Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

  2. Monitoring the degradation of physical properties and fire hazards of high-impact polystyrene composite with different ageing time in natural environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bibo; Zhang, Yan; Tao, Youji; Zhou, Xia; Song, Lei; Jie, Ganxin; Hu, Yuan

    2018-06-15

    The current study aims at monitoring the role of the different natural environments on the physical properties and fire hazards of HIPS composites ageing in Turpan and Qionghai. The results indicated that the chromatic aberration and degradation of surface appearance intensified with the increasing ageing time. More flame retardants migrated and were eroded for HIPS composites ageing in Qionghai than those ageing in Turpan, which was caused by the combination of sunlight, high temperature and rainwater in Qionghai. After degradation in the natural environments, the HIPS composites possessed the lower thermal stability and char residues, more toxic gases release, higher peak heat release rate and fire hazard. For example, the peak heat release rate in Qionghai increased by 88.9%, which is much higher than that of in Turpan (55.6%). Moreover, the tensile strength and elongation at break decreased by 46% and 59% for HIPS composites ageing in Turpan and reduced by 53% and 67% for HIPS composites aged in Qionghai, respectively. The results demonstrate that more serious degradation of physical properties and higher fire hazard for HIPS composites ageing in Qionghai than those in Turpan due to the different natural ageing environments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Ethical issues in forecasting of natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazards have by definition a large impact on the society and, therefore, since the beginning of science one of the major aspiration of mankind has been the prediction of natural calamities in the attempt to avoid or to mitigate their effects. In modern societies where science and technology have gained a foundational role, forecasts and predictions have become part of the every-day life and may also influence state policies and economic development. And in parallel with the growing importance of forecasting, even ethical problems for forecasters and for forecasters communities have started to appear. In this work two of the many geo-ethical issues are considered mostly: 1) how to cope with uncertainties that are inherently associated with any forecast statement; 2) how to handle predictions in scientific journals and scientific conferences The former issue is mainly related to the impact of predictions on the general public and on managers and operators in the civil protection field. Forecasters operate in specific contexts that 1) may change from country to country, depending on the local adopted best practices, but also, which is more constraining, on the local legal regulations and laws; 2) may change from discipline to discipline according to the development of the specific knowhow and the range of the forecast (from minutes to centuries) The second issue has to do with the communication of the scientific results on predictions and on prediction methods to the audience mainly composed of scientists, and involves one of the basic elements of science. In principle, scientists should use scientific communication means (papers in scientific journals, conferences, …) to illustrate results that are sound and certain, or the methods by means of which they conduct their research. But scientists involved in predictions have inherently to do with uncertainties, and, since there is no common agreement on how to deal with them, there is the risk that scientific

  4. Residential and service-population exposure to multiple natural hazards in the Mount Hood region of Clackamas County, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathie, Amy M.; Wood, Nathan

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research is to document residential and service-population exposure to natural hazards in the rural communities of Clackamas County, Oregon, near Mount Hood. The Mount Hood region of Clackamas County has a long history of natural events that have impacted its small, tourism-based communities. To support preparedness and emergency-management planning in the region, a geospatial analysis of population exposure was used to determine the number and type of residents and service populations in flood-, wildfire-, and volcano-related hazard zones. Service populations are a mix of residents and tourists temporarily benefitting from local services, such as retail, education, or recreation. In this study, service population includes day-use visitors at recreational sites, overnight visitors at hotels and resorts, children at schools, and community-center visitors. Although the heavily-forested, rural landscape suggests few people are in the area, there are seasonal peaks of thousands of visitors to the region. “Intelligent” dasymetric mapping efforts using 30-meter resolution land-cover imagery and U.S. Census Bureau data proved ineffective at adequately capturing either the spatial distribution or magnitude of population at risk. Consequently, an address-point-based hybrid dasymetric methodology of assigning population to the physical location of buildings mapped with a global positioning system was employed. The resulting maps of the population (1) provide more precise spatial distributions for hazard-vulnerability assessments, (2) depict appropriate clustering due to higher density structures, such as apartment complexes and multi-unit commercial buildings, and (3) provide new information on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of people utilizing services within the study area. Estimates of population exposure to flooding, wildfire, and volcanic hazards were determined by using overlay analysis in a geographic information system

  5. Assessment of radiological hazards of naturally occurring radioactive materials in cement industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslam, M.; Gul, R.; Ara, T.; Hussain, M.

    2012-01-01

    A study on the radiological hazard in Portland cement due to the presence of naturally occurring radioactive materials is being carried out. The Portland cement manufactured in the Islamabad/Rawalpindi region of Pakistan, intermediate products (clinker) and the various raw materials which compose the product have been analysed for 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K using a gamma spectrometry system with a N-type high-purity germanium detector of 80 % relative efficiency. From the measured gamma ray spectra, specific activities were determined. The mean values of the total specific activity of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K are 34.2±11.9, 29.1±3.6 and 295.1±66.9 Bq kg -1 , respectively in Portland cement, 28.4±8.7, 11.3±1.7 and 63.1±17.3 Bq kg -1 , respectively in lime stone, 8.2±1.9, 16.2±3.9 and 187.7±53.2 Bq kg -1 , respectively in gypsum, 34.7±13.1, 41.2±6.7 and 187.6±17.2 Bq kg -1 , respectively in clay, 41.1±11.8, 39.3±6.9 and 195.1±29.2 Bq kg -1 , respectively in laterite and 51.1±18.2, 23.2±1.2 and 258.4±15.3 Bq kg -1 , respectively in clinker. The radium equivalent activities (Ra eq ), external hazard index (H ex ), internal hazard index (H in ), absorbed dose rate in air (D) and annual effective dose rate (E eff ) were also determined. The measured activity concentrations for these radio nuclides and radiological indices were compared with the reported national and international data. All these measured values are comparable with the worldwide data reported in UNSCEAR publications. (authors)

  6. Internal and external hazards inside the containment in case of an emergency situation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdelhady, Amr [Atomic Energy Authoriy (Egypt). Nuclear Research Center

    2017-11-15

    The objective of this paper is to estimating radionuclide concentrations in air and radiological dose consequences to indoor workers in a containment of MTR open pool type reactor during emergency situations. A postulated core degradation accident causes fission products to release and the ventilation system will be converted automatically from the normal situation into emergency situation in order to purify the contaminated air by forcing it to pass through a group of filters. The study computes internal and external worker doses from inhalation and submersion in a finite cloud of contaminated air during the emergency mode. A radiological toolbox version 2 was used to evaluate the radiation dose levels inside the containment.

  7. Internal and external hazards inside the containment in case of an emergency situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelhady, Amr

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to estimating radionuclide concentrations in air and radiological dose consequences to indoor workers in a containment of MTR open pool type reactor during emergency situations. A postulated core degradation accident causes fission products to release and the ventilation system will be converted automatically from the normal situation into emergency situation in order to purify the contaminated air by forcing it to pass through a group of filters. The study computes internal and external worker doses from inhalation and submersion in a finite cloud of contaminated air during the emergency mode. A radiological toolbox version 2 was used to evaluate the radiation dose levels inside the containment.

  8. HORA - an Austrian platform for natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlatky, T.

    2009-04-01

    HORA - an Austrian platform for natural hazards as a new way in risk communication One initiatives launched in Austria demonstrate that public participation not only bears the risk of a partial transfer of responsibility by the authorities; it may above all prepare the ground for entirely new approaches and create new links. The recent installation of the first internet risk zoning system in Austria underscores the importance of involving private parties in natural disaster protection. This public-private partnership (PPP) between the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW) and the Austrian Insurance Association (VVO) was launched in the wake of the 2002 flood disaster. The first project phase, the Austrian flood risk zoning system called HORA (screenshot see fig. 1), has now been accessible on the Web since 1st June 2006. In accordance with a risk partnership concluded between federal government, insurance companies and private parties, the project initiators seek to offer the public a preliminary risk assessment tool for evaluation of their home, industrial enterprise, of infrastructure. Digital risk maps shall provide information on 30-year, 100-year and 200-year flood events as they occur alongside the 26.000-km-long domestic river network. The probability with which a certain block of land is immersed in water during a flood event can be calculated by means of hydraulic engineering methods. These have traditionally relied on statistical figures, which are known to be very inaccurate, especially when major events such as flooding are concerned. The Vienna University of Technology (TU) (Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering) has dedicated many years to developing more accurate, process oriented risk assessment techniques. The starting points was to identify different flood-triggering processes and to divide them into specific categories as long-duration rainfalls, short-duration rainfalls, storms

  9. List of external hazards to be considered in ASAMPSA-E

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decker, Kurt; Brinkman, Hans

    2016-01-01

    The current report includes an exhaustive list of external hazards posing potential threats to nuclear installations. The list comprises of both, natural and man-made external hazards. Also, a cross correlation matrix of the hazards is presented. The list is the starting point for the hazard analysis process in Level 1 PSA as outlined by IAEA (2010; SSG-3) and the definition of design basis as required by WENRA (2014; Reference Levels for Existing Reactors). The list is regarded comprehensive by including all types of hazards that were previously cited in documents by IAEA and WENRA-RHWG. 73 natural hazards (N1 to N73) and 24 man-made external hazards (M1 to M24) are included. Natural hazards are grouped into seismo-tectonic hazards, flooding and hydrological hazards, extreme values of meteorological phenomena, rare meteorological phenomena, biological hazards / infestation, geological hazards, and forest fire. The list of external man-made hazards includes industry accidents, military accidents, transportation accidents, pipeline accidents and other man-made external events. The dataset further contains information on hazard correlations. 577 correlations between individual hazards are identified and shown in a cross-correlation chart. Correlations discriminate between: (1) Causally connected hazards (cause-effect relation) where one hazard (e.g., liquefaction) may be caused by another hazard (e.g., earthquake); or where one hazard (e.g., high wind) is a prerequisite for a correlated hazard (e.g., storm surge). (authors)

  10. 21 CFR 2.5 - Imminent hazard to the public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Imminent hazard to the public health. 2.5 Section... GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE RULINGS AND DECISIONS General Provisions § 2.5 Imminent hazard to the public health... a significant threat of danger to health, creates a public health situation (1) that should be...

  11. Natural radioactivity in some building materials and assessment of the associated radiation hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasumovic, Amira; Hankic, Ema; Kasic, Amela; Adrovic, Feriz [Tuzla Univ. (Bosnia and Herzegovina). Dept. of Physics

    2018-04-01

    The results of the specific activities of {sup 232}Th, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 40}K measured in samples of commonly used building materials in Bosnia and Herzegovina are presented. Measurements were performed by gamma-ray spectrometer with coaxial HPGe detector. The surface radon exhalation and mass exhalation rates for selected building materials were also measured. The determined values of specific activities were in range from 3.16 ± 0.81 Bq kg{sup -1} to 64.79 ± 6.16 Bq kg{sup -1} for {sup 232}Th, from 2.46 ± 0.95 Bq kg{sup -1} to 53.89 ± 3.67 Bq kg{sup -1} for {sup 226}Ra and from 28.44 ± 7.28 Bq kg{sup -1} to 557.30 ± 93.38 Bq kg{sup -1} for {sup 40}K. The radium equivalent activity, the activity concentration index, the external and internal hazard indices as well as the absorbed dose rate in indoor air and the corresponding annual effective dose, due to gamma-ray emission from the radioactive nuclides in the building material, were evaluated in order to assess the radiation hazards for people. The measured specific activities of the natural radioactive nuclides in all investigated building materials were compared with the published results for building materials from other European countries. It can be noted that the results from this study are similar to the data for building materials from neighbouring countries and for building materials used in the EU Member States. The radiological hazard parameters of the building materials were all within the recommended limits for safety use.

  12. A review on applicability of naturally available adsorbents for the removal of hazardous dyes from aqueous waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Pankaj; Kaur, Harleen; Sharma, Monika; Sahore, Vishal

    2011-12-01

    The effluent water of many industries, such as textiles, leather, paper, printing, cosmetics, etc., contains large amount of hazardous dyes. There is huge number of treatment processes as well as adsorbent which are available for the processing of this effluent water-containing dye content. The applicability of naturally available low cast and eco-friendly adsorbents, for the removal of hazardous dyes from aqueous waste by adsorption treatment, has been reviewed. In this review paper, we have provided a compiled list of low-cost, easily available, safe to handle, and easy-to-dispose-off adsorbents. These adsorbents have been classified into five different categories on the basis of their state of availability: (1) waste materials from agriculture and industry, (2) fruit waste, (3) plant waste, (4) natural inorganic materials, and (5) bioadsorbents. Some of the treated adsorbents have shown good adsorption capacities for methylene blue, congo red, crystal violet, rhodamine B, basic red, etc., but this adsorption process is highly pH dependent, and the pH of the medium plays an important role in the treatment process. Thus, in this review paper, we have made some efforts to discuss the role of pH in the treatment of wastewater.

  13. Natural radioactivity (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) and assessment of radiological hazards in the Kestanbol granitoid, Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canbaz, Buket; Cam, N Füsun; Yaprak, Günseli; Candan, Osman

    2010-09-01

    The surveys of natural gamma-emitting radionuclides in rocks and soils from the Ezine plutonic area were conducted during 2007. Direct dose measurement using a survey meter was carried out simultaneously. The present study, which is part of the survey, analysed the activity concentrations of (238)U, (232)Th and (40)K in granitoid samples from all over the region by HPGe gamma spectrometry. The activity concentrations of (226)Ra ranged from 94 to 637 Bq kg(-1), those of (232)Th ranged from 120 to 601 Bq kg(-1)and those of (40)K ranged from 1074 to 1527 Bq kg(-1) in the analysed rock samples from different parts of the pluton. To evaluate the radiological hazard of the natural radioactivity in the samples, the absorbed dose rate (D), the annual effective dose rate, the radium equivalent activity (Ra(eq)) and the external (H(ex)) hazard index were calculated according to the UNSCEAR 2000 report. The thorium-to-uranium concentration ratios were also estimated.

  14. School and Situated Knowledge: Travel or Tourism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damarin, Suzanne K.

    1993-01-01

    Examines issues related to situated cognition and learning, both in the classroom and in the world. Topics discussed include educational theories; the situated nature of knowledge; the perception of experts; and the role of technology in situated learning, including virtual reality, hypertext, and telecommunications. (26 references) (LRW)

  15. A First Step toward the Understanding of Implicit Learning of Hazard Anticipation in Inexperienced Road Users Through a Moped-Riding Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariaelena Tagliabue

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Hazard perception is considered one of the most important abilities in road safety. Several efforts have been devoted to investigating how it improves with experience and can be trained. Recently, research has focused on the implicit aspects of hazard detection, reaction, and anticipation. In the present study, we attempted to understand how the ability to anticipate hazards develops during training with a moped-riding simulator: the Honda Riding Trainer (HRT. Several studies have already validated the HRT as a tool to enhance adolescents’ hazard perception and riding abilities. In the present study, as an index of hazard anticipation, we used skin conductance response (SCR, which has been demonstrated to be linked to affective/implicit appraisal of risk. We administered to a group of inexperienced road users five road courses two times a week apart. In each course, participants had to deal with eight hazard scenes (except one course that included only seven hazard scenes. Participants had to ride along the HRT courses, facing the potentially hazardous situations, following traffic rules, and trying to avoid accidents. During the task, we measured SCR and monitored driving performance. The main results show that learning to ride the simulator leads to both a reduction in the number of accidents and anticipation of the somatic response related to hazard detection, as proven by the reduction of SCR onset recorded in the second session. The finding that the SCR signaling the impending hazard appears earlier when the already encountered hazard situations are faced anew suggests that training with the simulator acts on the somatic activation associated with the experience of risky situations, improving its effectiveness in detecting hazards in advance so as to avoid accidents. This represents the starting point for future investigations into the process of generalization of learning acquired in new virtual situations and in real-road situations.

  16. Marine natural hazards in coastal zone: observations, analysis and modelling (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Didenkulova, Ira

    2010-05-01

    Giant surface waves approaching the coast frequently cause extensive coastal flooding, destruction of coastal constructions and loss of lives. Such waves can be generated by various phenomena: strong storms and cyclones, underwater earthquakes, high-speed ferries, aerial and submarine landslides. The most famous examples of such events are the catastrophic tsunami in the Indian Ocean, which occurred on 26 December 2004 and hurricane Katrina (28 August 2005) in the Atlantic Ocean. The huge storm in the Baltic Sea on 9 January 2005, which produced unexpectedly long waves in many areas of the Baltic Sea and the influence of unusually high surge created by long waves from high-speed ferries, should also be mentioned as examples of regional marine natural hazards connected with extensive runup of certain types of waves. The processes of wave shoaling and runup for all these different marine natural hazards (tsunami, coastal freak waves, ship waves) are studied based on rigorous solutions of nonlinear shallow-water theory. The key and novel results presented here are: i) parameterization of basic formulas for extreme runup characteristics for bell-shape waves, showing that they weakly depend on the initial wave shape, which is usually unknown in real sea conditions; ii) runup analysis of periodic asymmetric waves with a steep front, as such waves are penetrating inland over large distances and with larger velocities than symmetric waves; iii) statistical analysis of irregular wave runup demonstrating that wave nonlinearity nearshore does not influence on the probability distribution of the velocity of the moving shoreline and its moments, and influences on the vertical displacement of the moving shoreline (runup). Wave runup on convex beaches and in narrow bays, which allow abnormal wave amplification is also discussed. Described analytical results are used for explanation of observed extreme runup of tsunami, freak (sneaker) waves and ship waves on different coasts

  17. NOAA Weather Radio - All Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-Zero All Hazards Logo Emergency Alert Description Event Codes Fact Sheet FAQ Organization Search -event information for all types of hazards: weather (e.g., tornadoes, floods), natural (e.g Management or Preparedness, civil defense, police or mayor/commissioner sets up linkages to send messages on

  18. LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Gallo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

  19. The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2014-07-01

    In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant

  20. Hazardous waste and environmental trade: China`s issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma Jiang [National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development, Beijing (China)

    1996-12-31

    By presenting some case studies, this paper analyzes China`s situation with regard to hazardous waste: its environmental trade, treatment, and management. The paper describes China`s experiences with the environmental trade of hazardous waste in both the internal and international market. Regulations for managing the import of waste are discussed, as are China`s major approaches to the trading of hazardous waste both at home and overseas. The major reasons for setting up the Asian-Pacific Regional Training Center for Technology Transfer and Environmental Sound Management of Wastes in China and the activities involved in this effort are also described. 1 tab.

  1. Geologic Maps as the Foundation of Mineral-Hazards Maps in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, C. T.; Churchill, R. K.; Downey, C. I.; Clinkenbeard, J. P.; Fonseca, M. C.

    2010-12-01

    The basic geologic map is essential to the development of products that help planners, engineers, government officials, and the general public make decisions concerning natural hazards. Such maps are the primary foundation that the California Geological Survey (CGS) uses to prepare maps that show potential for mineral-hazards. Examples of clients that request these maps are the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH). Largely because of their non-catastrophic nature, mineral hazards have received much less public attention compared to earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods. Nonetheless, mineral hazards can be a major concern locally when considering human health and safety and potential contamination of the environment by human activities such as disposal of earth materials. To address some of these concerns, the CGS has focused its mineral-hazards maps on naturally occurring asbestos (NOA), radon, and various potentially toxic metals as well as certain artificial features such as mines and oil and gas wells. The maps range in scope from statewide to counties and Caltrans districts to segments of selected highways. To develop the hazard maps, the CGS begins with traditional paper and digital versions of basic geologic maps, which are obtained from many sources such as its own files, the USGS, USDA Forest Service, California Department of Water Resources, and counties. For each study area, these maps present many challenges of compilation related to vintage, scale, definition of units, and edge-matching across map boundaries. The result of each CGS compilation is a digital geologic layer that is subsequently reinterpreted and transformed into new digital layers (e.g., lithologic) that focus on the geochemical and mineralogical properties of the area’s earth materials and structures. These intermediate layers are then integrated with other technical data to derive final digital layers

  2. Geo hazard studies and their policy implications in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, W.

    2007-05-01

    Nicaragua, situated at the Central American Subduction zone and placed in the trajectory of tropical storms and hurricanes, is a frequent showplace of natural disasters which have multiplied the negative effects of a long term socioeconomic crisis leaving Nicaragua currently as the second poorest country of the Americas. In the last years, multiple efforts were undertaken to prevent or mitigate the affectation of the natural phenomena to the country. National and local authorities have become more involved in disaster prevention policy and international cooperation boosted funding for disaster prevention and mitigation measures in the country. The National Geosciences Institution (INETER) in cooperation with foreign partners developed a national monitoring and early warning system on geological and hydro-meteorological phenomena. Geological and risk mapping projects were conducted by INETER and international partners. Universities, NGO´s, International Technical Assistance, and foreign scientific groups cooperated to capacitate Nicaraguan geoscientists and to improve higher education on disaster prevention up to the master degree. Funded by a World Bank loan, coordinated by the National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Attention (SINAPRED) and scientifically supervised by INETER, multidisciplinary hazard and vulnerability studies were carried out between 2003 and 2005 with emphasis on seismic hazard. These GIS based works provided proposals for land use policies on a local level in 30 municipalities and seismic vulnerability and risk information for each single building in Managua, Capital of Nicaragua. Another large multidisciplinary project produced high resolution air photos, elaborated 1:50,000 vectorized topographic maps, and a digital elevation model for Western Nicaragua. These data, integrated in GIS, were used to assess: 1) Seismic Hazard for Metropolitan Managua; 2) Tsunami hazard for the Pacific coast; 3) Volcano hazard for Telica

  3. Ethiopia - energy situation 1983/84

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    After a few short remarks on the energy situation, the most important figures referring to the production and consumption of electricity, petroleum, and petroleum products from 1978 to 1982 are compared in tabular form. The situation on the energy market, especially the petroleum and natural gas market, is described. Finally, some figures concerning the foreign trade are given.

  4. Inorganic and Hazardous Solid Waste Management: Current Status and Challenges for Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aprilia, A.; Tezuka, T.; Spaargaren, G.

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on household waste management in Indonesia, with particular emphasis on inorganic and hazardous waste. It seeks to identify the current situation and also aims to provide a review of the existing policies that are particularly related to inorganic and hazardous waste management.

  5. Natural phenomena risk analysis - an approach for the tritium facilities 5480.23 SAR natural phenomena hazards accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.; Joshi, J.R.; Long, T.A.; Taylor, R.P.

    1997-01-01

    A Tritium Facilities (TF) Safety Analysis Report (SAR) has been developed which is compliant with DOE Order 5480.23. The 5480.23 SAR upgrades and integrates the safety documentation for the TF into a single SAR for all of the tritium processing buildings. As part of the TF SAR effort, natural phenomena hazards (NPH) were analyzed. A cost effective strategy was developed using a team approach to take advantage of limited resources and budgets. During development of the Hazard and Accident Analysis for the 5480.23 SAR, a strategy was required to allow maximum use of existing analysis and to develop a cost effective graded approach for any new analysis in identifying and analyzing the bounding accidents for the TF. This approach was used to effectively identify and analyze NPH for the TF. The first part of the strategy consisted of evaluating the current SAR for the RTF to determine what NPH analysis could be used in the new combined 5480.23 SAR. The second part was to develop a method for identifying and analyzing NPH events for the older facilities which took advantage of engineering judgment, was cost effective, and followed a graded approach. The second part was especially challenging because of the lack of documented existing analysis considered adequate for the 5480.23 SAR and a limited budget for SAR development and preparation. This paper addresses the strategy for the older facilities

  6. Multi-hazard assessment using GIS in the urban areas: Case study - Banja Luka municipality, B&H

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tošić Radislav

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The research presents a techniques for natural hazard assessment using GIS and cartographic approaches with multi-hazard mapping in urban communities, because natural hazards are a multi-dimensional phenomena which have a spatial component. Therefore the use of Remote Sensing and GIS has an important function and become essential in urban multi-hazard assessment. The first aim of this research was to determine the geographical distributions of the major types of natural hazards in the study area. Seismic hazards, landslides, rockfalls, floods, torrential floods, and excessive erosion are the most significant natural hazards within the territory of Banja Luka Municipality. Areas vulnerable to some of these natural hazards were singled out using analytical maps. Based on these analyses, an integral map of the natural hazards of the study area was created using multi-hazard assessment and the total vulnerability was determined by overlapping the results. The detailed analysis, through the focused research within the most vulnerable areas in the study area will highlight the administrative units (urban centres and communes that are vulnerable to various types of natural hazard. The results presented in this article are the first multi-hazard assessment and the first version of the integral map of natural hazards in the Republic of Srpska.

  7. Infrastructure Systems Interdependencies and Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM: Impact Scenario Analysis of Infrastructure Risks Induced by Natural, Technological and Intentional Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.

  8. A search for applications of Fiber Optics in early warning systems for natural hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenker, Koen; Bogaard, Thom

    2013-04-01

    In order to reduce the societal risk associated with natural hazards novel technologies could help to advance in early warning systems. In our study we evaluate the use of multi-sensor technologies as possible early-warning systems for landslides and man-made structures, and the integration of the information in a simple Decision Support System (DSS). In this project, particular attention will be paid to some new possibilities available in the field of distributed monitoring systems of relevant parameters for landslide and man-made structures monitoring (such as large dams and bridges), and among them the distributed monitoring of temperature, strain and acoustic signals by FO cables. Fiber Optic measurements are becoming more and more popular. Fiber optic cables have been developed in the telecommunication business to send large amounts of information over large distances with the speed of light. Because of the commercial application, production costs are relatively low. Using fiber optics for measurements has several advantages. This novel technology is, for instance, immune to electromagnetic interference, appears stable, very accurate, and has the potential to measure several independent physical properties in a distributed manner. The high resolution spatial and temporal distributed information on e.g. temperature or strain (or both) make fiber optics an interesting measurement technique. Several applications have been developed in both engineering as science and the possibilities seem numerous. We will present a thorough literature review that was done to assess the applicability and limitations of FO cable technology. This review was focused but not limited to application in landslide research. Several examples of current practices will be shown, also from outside the natural hazard practice and possible application will be discussed.

  9. Fourth DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Conference: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Volume II of the proceedings covers sessions IX - XIV. The general topics of the presented papers are: volcanoes, piping and components, waste tanks, probabilistic seismic hazards, geological and geotechnical aspects, equipment, codes and standards, analysis, and upgrades. Individual papers are indexed separately. (GH)

  10. A life cycle hazard assessment (LCHA) framework to address fire hazards at the wildland-urban interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, Eric; Pierce, Jen; Wuerzer, Thomas; Glenn, Nancy; Dialani, Jijay; Gibble, Katie; Frazier, Tim; Strand, Eva

    2015-04-01

    The stages of planning for and responding to natural hazards, such as wildfires and related events, are often conducted as discrete (and often not connected) efforts. Disaster response often takes precedence, exhausting agency and stakeholder resources, and the planning stages are conducted by different agencies or entities with different and often competing agendas and jurisdictions. The result is that evaluation after a disaster can be minimal or even non-existent as resources are expended and interest moves on to the next event. Natural disasters and hazards, however, have a tendency to cascade and multiply: wildfires impact the vulnerability of hillslopes, for example, which may result in landslides, flooding and debris flows long after the initial event has occurred. Connecting decisions across multiple events and time scales is ignored, yet these connections could lead to better policy making at all stages of disaster risk reduction. Considering this situation, we present an adapted life cycle analysis (LCA) approach to examine fire-related hazards at the Wildland-Urban Interface in the American West. The LCHA focuses on the temporal integration of : 1) the 'pre-fire' set of physical conditions (e.g. fuel loads) and human conditions (e.g. hazard awareness), 2) the 'fire event', focusing on computational analysis of the communication patterns and responsibility for response to the event, and 3) the 'post-event' analysis of the landscape susceptibility to fire-related debris flows. The approach of the LCHA follows other models used by governmental agencies to prepare for disasters through 1) preparation and prevention, 2) response and 3) recovery. As an overlay are the diverse agencies and policies associated with these stages and their respective resource and management decisions over time. LCAs have evolved from a business-centric consideration of the environmental impact of a specific product over the products life. This approach takes several phases to end

  11. Hazardous Traffic Event Detection Using Markov Blanket and Sequential Minimal Optimization (MB-SMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixin Yan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The ability to identify hazardous traffic events is already considered as one of the most effective solutions for reducing the occurrence of crashes. Only certain particular hazardous traffic events have been studied in previous studies, which were mainly based on dedicated video stream data and GPS data. The objective of this study is twofold: (1 the Markov blanket (MB algorithm is employed to extract the main factors associated with hazardous traffic events; (2 a model is developed to identify hazardous traffic event using driving characteristics, vehicle trajectory, and vehicle position data. Twenty-two licensed drivers were recruited to carry out a natural driving experiment in Wuhan, China, and multi-sensor information data were collected for different types of traffic events. The results indicated that a vehicle’s speed, the standard deviation of speed, the standard deviation of skin conductance, the standard deviation of brake pressure, turn signal, the acceleration of steering, the standard deviation of acceleration, and the acceleration in Z (G have significant influences on hazardous traffic events. The sequential minimal optimization (SMO algorithm was adopted to build the identification model, and the accuracy of prediction was higher than 86%. Moreover, compared with other detection algorithms, the MB-SMO algorithm was ranked best in terms of the prediction accuracy. The conclusions can provide reference evidence for the development of dangerous situation warning products and the design of intelligent vehicles.

  12. Identifying compensatory driving behavior among older adults using the situational avoidance questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jessica J; Conlon, Elizabeth G

    2017-12-01

    Driving self-regulation is considered a means through which older drivers can compensate for perceived declines in driving skill or more general feelings of discomfort on the road. One form of driving self-regulation is situational avoidance, the purposeful avoidance of situations perceived as challenging or potentially hazardous. This study aimed to validate the Situational Avoidance Questionnaire (SAQ, Davis, Conlon, Ownsworth, & Morrissey, 2016) and identify the point on the scale at which drivers practicing compensatory avoidance behavior could be distinguished from those whose driving is unrestricted, or who are avoiding situations for other, non-compensatory reasons (e.g., time or convenience). Seventy-nine Australian drivers (M age =71.48, SD=7.16, range: 55 to 86years) completed the SAQ and were classified as a compensatory-restricted or a non-restricted driver based on a semi-structured interview designed to assess the motivations underlying avoidance behavior reported on the SAQ. Using receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, the SAQ was found to have high diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity: 85%, specificity: 82%) in correctly classifying the driver groups. Group comparisons confirmed that compensatory-restricted drivers were self-regulating their driving behavior to reduce the perceived demands of the driving task. This group had, on average, slower hazard perception reaction times, and reported greater difficulty with driving, more discomfort when driving due to difficulty with hazard perception skills, and greater changes in cognition over the past five years. The SAQ is a psychometrically sound measure of situational avoidance for drivers in baby boomer and older adult generations. Use of validated measures of driving self-regulation that distinguish between compensatory and non-compensatory behavior, such as the SAQ, will advance our understanding of the driving self-regulation construct and its potential safety benefits for older road users

  13. CubeSat for Natural-Hazard Estimation With Ionospheric Sciences (CNEWS): A Concept Development to Aid Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komjathy, A.; Romero-Wolf, A.; Yang, Y. M.; Langley, R. B.; Foster, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the University New Brunswick (Canada) and the University of Hawaii have developed a concept to provide open ocean tsunami wave height estimates using very accurate measurements of absolute total electron content (TEC) perturbations. Ionosphere-derived tsunami wave height estimates from our CubeSat for Natural-Hazard Estimation With Ionospheric Sciences (CNEWS) mission will refine the tsunami source energy calculation and improve the tsunami scale calculation for a localized region. As a secondary science objective, transmitting impulsive HF/VHF (10-40 MHz) transmissions through the ionosphere will provide in-situ geomagnetic disturbance measurements, which allow for discrimination between tsunami-induced signatures and space-weather-related fluctuations. NASA has invested several millions of dollars in the development of a tsunami warning system based on geodetic measurements from ground-based GPS stations. Leveraging this investment by simultaneously using ionospheric measurement from this GPS network for the detection of tsunamis represents a significant step forward. GPS ionospheric imaging is limited, however, by the slowly changing satellite geometry and its weak absolute TEC resolution (about 3 TECU). It has also been shown that GPS ionospheric imaging alone cannot distinguish between space weather fluctuations and those due to natural hazards. The very precise ionospheric measurements generated by CNEWS are expected to provide a quasi-static image of tsunami ionospheric signatures that we will use in an advanced model inversion technique to estimate tsunami wave heights at 10 cm (one sigma) uncertainty. The geomagnetic field strength resolution is also a key constraint for discriminating between natural hazards and space weather effects. HF/VHF impulses can resolve absolute TEC measurements at the 0.02 TECU level and geomagnetic field strength may be measured at 50 nT resolution.

  14. Nationwide high-resolution mapping of hazards in the Philippines (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A.

    2015-04-01

    The Philippines being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Situated in a region where severe weather and geophysical unrest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. Recently, the Philippines put in place a responsive program called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) for disaster prevention and mitigation. The efforts of Project NOAH are an offshoot of lessons learned from previous disasters that have inflicted massive loss of lives and costly damage to property. Several components of the NOAH program focus on mapping of landslide, riverine flood and storm surge inundation hazards. By simulating hazards phenomena over IFSAR- and LiDAR-derived digital terrain models (DTMs) using high-performance computers, multi-hazards maps of 1:10,000 scale, have been produced and disseminated to local government units through a variety of platforms. These detailed village-level (barangay-level) maps are useful to identify safe evacuation sites, planning emergency access routes and prepositioning of search and rescue and relief supplies during times of crises. They are also essential for long-term development planning of communities. In the past two years, NOAH was instrumental in providing timely, site-specific, and understandable hazards information to the public, considered as best practice in disaster risk reduction management (DRR). The use of advanced science and technology in the country's disaster prevention efforts is imperative to successfully mitigate the adverse impacts of natural hazards and should be a continuous quest - to find the best products, put forth in the forefront of battle against

  15. Synoptic conditions and hazards in coastal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surkova, Galina; Arkhipkin, Victor; Kislov, Alexsandr

    2013-04-01

    This work is an approach to the methodology of prediction of hazards in the coastal zone. For the past 60 years, according to the observations and reanalysis, meteorological conditions are rough in connection with the storm waves and strong winds resulting in catastrophic damage in the coastal zone of the Black and Caspian Seas. Forecast of similar events is taken from CMIP3 modeled for the future climate 2046-2065 by general global atmosphere and ocean circulation model MPI-ECHAM5. The research was conducted for the three types of calendar data samples: 1) storm wave and surge from observations (1948-2012), 2) storm simulations with wave height of 4 m and more (1948-2010), and 3) prognostic climate scenarios for 2046-2065. In the first sample especially rare events were chosen, accompanied by a large damage in the coastal zone. Second sample of cases was derived from modeling of SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). The third sample was derived from projections of cases from group 1 in the MPI-ECHAM5 climate forecasts for 2046-2065. For each sample the data of large-scale fields of surface pressure, height 500 hPa isobaric surfaces, 700gPa (Reanalysis NCEP / NCAR) was analyzed. On the basis of statistical techniques (decomposition of fields in the natural orthogonal functions (EOF) and cluster analysis) the synoptic situations associated with these events were classified. Centroids of pressure fields for dominated cases show that there are two basic types of synoptic situations in case of storm waves for the Black Sea. In the first case main role play the Mediterranean cyclones located in the east of the Mediterranean Sea, they are spread over the Black Sea, and often form a local center of low pressure. Their movement is blocked by the high pressure over the European Russia and Eastern Europe. If the center of the cyclone is over Asia and the southern part of the Black Sea, the weather is dominated by the north-eastern, eastern, south-easterly winds. In some cases

  16. Learning game for training child bicyclists' situation awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtonen, Esko; Sahlberg, Heidi; Rovamo, Emilia; Summala, Heikki

    2017-08-01

    Encouraging more children to bicycle would produce both environmental and health benefits, but bicycling accidents are a major source of injuries and fatalities among children. One reason for this may be children's less developed hazard perception skills. We assume that children's situation awareness could be trained with a computer based learning game, which should also improve their hazard perception skills. In this paper, we present a prototype for such a game and pilot it with 8-9year old children. The game consisted of videos filmed from a bicyclist's perspective. Using a touchscreen, the player's task was to point out targets early enough to gain points. The targets were either overt (other visible road users on a potentially conflicting course) or covert (occlusions, i.e. locations where other road users could suddenly emerge). If a target was missed or identified too late, the video was paused and feedback was given. The game was tested with 49 children from the 2nd grade of primary school (aged 8-9). 31 young adults (aged 22-34) played the game for comparison. The effect of the game on situation awareness was assessed with situation awareness tests in a crossover design. Similar videos were used in the tests as in the game, but instead of pointing out the targets while watching, the video was suddenly masked and participants were asked to locate all targets which had been present just before the masking, choosing among several possible locations. Their performance was analyzed using Signal Detection Theory and answer latencies. The game decreased answer latency and marginally changed response bias in a less conservative direction for both children and adults, but it did not significantly increase sensitivity for targets. Adults performed better in the tests and in the game, and it was possible to satisfactorily predict group membership based on the scores. Children found it especially difficult to find covert targets. Overall, the described version of the

  17. Informing hazardous zones for on-board maritime hydrogen liquid and gas systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaylock, Myra L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pratt, Joseph William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Bran Anleu, Gabriela A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Proctor, Camron [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The significantly higher buoyancy of hydrogen compared to natural gas means that hazardous zones defined in the IGF code may be inaccurate if applied to hydrogen. This could place undue burden on ship design or could lead to situations that are unknowingly unsafe. We present dispersion analyses to examine three vessel case studies: (1) abnormal external vents of full blowdown of a liquid hydrogen tank due to a failed relief device in still air and with crosswind; (2) vents due to naturally-occurring boil-off of liquid within the tank; and (3) a leak from the pipes leading into the fuel cell room. The size of the hydrogen plumes resulting from a blowdown of the tank depend greatly on the wind conditions. It was also found that for normal operations releasing a small amount of "boil- off" gas to regulate the pressure in the tank does not create flammable concentrations.

  18. Site characterization criteria (DOE-STD-1022-94) for natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, J.C.; Ueng, Tzou-Shin; Boissonnade, A.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper briefly summarizes requirements of site characterization for Natural Phenomena Hazards (NPH) at DOE sites. In order to comply with DOE Order 5480.28, site characterization criteria has been developed to provide site-specific information needed for development of NPH assessment criteria. Appropriate approaches are outlined to ensure that the current state-of-the-art methodologies and procedures are used in the site characterization. General and detailed site characterization requirements are provided in the areas of meteorology, hydrology, geology, seismology and geotechnical studies

  19. Differentiate responses of soil structure to natural vegetation and artificial plantation in landslide hazard region of the West Qinling Mountains, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Huang, Z.; Zhao, Y.; Hong, M.

    2017-12-01

    Natural vegetation and artificial plantation are the most important measures for ecological restoration in soil erosion and landslide hazard-prone regions of China. Previous studies have demonstrated that both measures can significantly change the soil structure and decrease soil and water erosion. Few reports have compared the effects of the two contrasting measures on mechanical and hydrological properties and further tested the differentiate responses of soil structure. In the study areas, two vegetation restoration measures-natural vegetation restoration (NVR) and artificial plantation restoration (APR) compared with control site, with similar topographical and geological backgrounds were selected to investigate the different effects on soil structure based on eight-year ecological restoration projects. The results showed that the surface vegetation played an important role in releasing soil erosion and enhance soil structure stability through change the soil aggregates (SA) and total soil porosity (TSP). The SArestoration and conservation in geological hazard-prone regions.

  20. Study and mapping of natural hazards in the coastal zone of Murcia; Estudio y cartografia de los peligros naturales costeros de la region de Murcia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seisdedos, J.; Mulas, J.; Gonzalez de Vallejo, L. I.; Rodriguez Franco, J. A.; Garcia, F. J.; Rio, L. del; Garrote, J.

    2013-09-01

    Despite the importance and implications of coastal hazards, very few studies have been focused on their analysis and mapping on a regional scale in a systematic and integrated way. This article presents a methodology based on the detailed analysis of natural hazards affecting coastal zones: floods, erosion, sea level rise, tsunamis, landslides, etc., and the study and mapping of the factors involved (coastal geomorphology, coastal processes, historical events, human activities). These factors and hazards are evaluated and integrated to prepare maps which include the assessments of each individual hazard and the overall ones. A mapping system in strips parallel to the coast is used, allowing the recognition and interpretation of the characteristics of the coast and the associated hazards. This methodology is applied to the coastal zone of Murcia, showing its usefulness for studying and mapping coastal hazards and its applicability to other regions. (Author)

  1. Predicting Consequences of Technological Disasters from Natural Hazard Events: Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Industrial Accident Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, M.

    2009-04-01

    The increased focus on the possibility of technological accidents caused by natural events (Natech) is foreseen to continue for years to come. In this case, experts in prevention, mitigation and preparation activities associated with natural events will increasingly need to borrow data and expertise traditionally associated with the technological fields to carry out the work. An important question is how useful is the data for understanding consequences from such natech events. Data and case studies provided on major industrial accidents tend to focus on lessons learned for re-engineering the process. While consequence data are reported at least nominally in most reports, their precision, quality and completeness is often lacking. Consequences that are often or sometimes available but not provided can include severity and type of injuries, distance of victims from the source, exposure measurements, volume of the release, population in potentially affected zones, and weather conditions. Yet these are precisely the type of data that will aid natural hazard experts in land-use planning and emergency response activities when a Natech event may be foreseen. This work discusses the results of a study of consequence data from accidents involving toxic releases reported in the EU's MARS accident database. The study analysed the precision, quality and completeness of three categories of consequence data reported: the description of health effects, consequence assessment and chemical risk assessment factors, and emergency response information. This work reports on the findings from this study and discusses how natural hazards experts might interact with industrial accident experts to promote more consistent and accurate reporting of the data that will be useful in consequence-based activities.

  2. Natural gas situation between 1970 and 1984

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachmann, H; Trillhose, A

    1986-03-01

    Trends in production, consumption, reserves, international trade, and transport of natural gas are described and illustrated by tables. Natural gas today contributes about 20% to the total primary energy supply worldwide. The construction of two new pipelines is being planned, from Jamburg and Jakutsk to Japan via Sachalin.

  3. Wireless sensor network: an aimless gadget or a necessary tool for natural hazards warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hloupis, George; Stavrakas, Ilias; Triantis, Dimos

    2010-05-01

    The purpose of the current study is to review the current technical and scientific state of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) with application on natural hazards. WSN have received great attention from the research community in the last few years, mainly due to the theoretical and practical efforts from challenges that led to mature solutions and adoption of standards, such as Bluetooth [2] and ZigBee [3]. Wireless technology solutions allows Micro-ElectroMechanical Systems sensors (MEMS) to be integrated (with all the necessary circuitry) to small wireless capable devices, the nodes. Available MEMS today include pressure, temperature, humidity, inertial and strain-gauge sensors as well as transducers for velocity, acceleration, vibration, flow position and inclination [4]. A WSN is composed by a large number of nodes which are deployed densely adjacent to the area under monitoring. Each node collects data which transmitted to a gateway. The main requirements that WSNs must fulfilled are quite different than those of ad-hoc networks. WSNs have to be self-organized (since the positions of individual nodes are not known in advance), they must present cooperative processing of tasks (where groups of nodes cooperate in order to provide the gathered data to the user), they require security mechanisms that are adaptive to monitoring conditions and all algorithms must be energy optimized. In this paper, the state of the art in hardware, software, algorithms and protocols for WSNs, focused on natural hazards, is surveyed. Architectures for WSNs are investigated along with their advantages and drawbacks. Available research prototypes as well as commercially proposed solutions that can be used for natural hazards monitoring and early warning systems are listed and classified. [1] I.F. Akyildiz, W. Su, Y. Sankarasubramaniam, E. Cayirci, Wireless sensor networks: a survey, Comput. Networks (Elsevier) 38 (4) (2002) 393-422. [2] Dursch, A.; Yen, D.C.; Shih, D.H. Bluetooth

  4. A modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures in multi-hazard environments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Gearhart, Jared Lee; Jones, Dean A.; Nozick, Linda Karen; Prince, Michael

    2013-09-01

    Currently, much of protection planning is conducted separately for each infrastructure and hazard. Limited funding requires a balance of expenditures between terrorism and natural hazards based on potential impacts. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project that created a modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures focused on multiple hazards, including terrorism. To develop this framework, three modeling elements were integrated: natural hazards, terrorism, and interdependent infrastructures. For natural hazards, a methodology was created for specifying events consistent with regional hazards. For terrorism, we modeled the terrorists actions based on assumptions regarding their knowledge, goals, and target identification strategy. For infrastructures, we focused on predicting post-event performance due to specific terrorist attacks and natural hazard events, tempered by appropriate infrastructure investments. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with various examples, including protection of electric power, roadway, and hospital networks.

  5. The Prodigies of The Albano Lake During Roman Age and Natural Hazard Assessment At Roma, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funiciello, R.; Giordano, G.; de Rita, D.

    Roma is built just 20 km to the northwest of the Pleistocene Colli Albani volcano, but is believed not exposed to relevant natural hazards, except for the Tiber river flood- ings, and local amplification of seismic waves from distal earthquakes. This belief has generally induced modern historians and geologists to discard as SmythologicalT the & cedil;many references to natural prodigies that are reported by many Roman-age historians. Recent studies have demonstrated that the Albano maar, the youngest volcanic cen- tre of the Colli Albani volcano and presently filled by a 175 m deep lake, protracted its activity to the Holocene triggering several catastrophic lahar events, likely related to lake withdrawal, the deposits of which are exposed to the southwest of Roma and reach its periphery. This finding youngs the history of the volcano and makes it rele- vant to pre-historic settlements, which ScarefullyT avoided the Albano maar slopes up & cedil;to the Bronze age. What is still unknown, though, is whether the lake experienced such fluctuations and overspills during historic times. Several Roman authors such as Ti- tus Livius, Dionigi d'Alicarnasso, Plutarco, Germanico, and many others wrote about the then well known 398 BC prodigious event, when, during the war between Roma and the Etruscan city of Veio, the gods anger caused the sudden rise and overspill of the Albano lake, reported as unrelated to climatic events, and the destructive flooding of the countryside. After that event Romans actually built a tunnel-drain which still operates regulating the lake level at 293 m a.s.l., 70 m below the maar rim elevation. Should those chronicles be truthful, we can join the geologic observation of Holocene lahar deposits from lake withdrawal with historical lake withdrawals, reassessing the natural hazard for the city of Roma under a point of view never explored before. This paper carefully explores the historical credibility of the 398 BC lake overspill event and its

  6. Observed changes and future trends in vulnerability to natural hazards for mountain communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puissant, A.; Gazo, A.; Débonnaire, N.; Moravek, A.; Aguejdad, R.; -P., Malet J.; B., Martin

    2015-04-01

    Since 50 years, mountain areas are affected by important landcover and landuse changes characterized by the decrease of pastoral activities, reforestation or urbanization with the development of tourism activities and infrastructures. These natural and anthropogenic transformations have an impact on the socio-economic activities but also on the exposure of the communities to natural hazards. In the context of the ANR Project SAMCO which aims at enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks, the objective of this research was to analyse landcover/use changes and to model future changes to assess the impacts of such change and to analyse trajectory of the vulnerability of mountain communities. For this research, an experiment is performed for two mountain areas of the French Alps (Barcelonnette Basin, Vars Basin). Changes in landcover and landuse are characterized over the period 1956-2010 for the two communities at two spatial scales (catchment, municipality). Four scenarios of landcover and landuse development (based on the Prelude European Project) are proposed for the period 2050 and 2100. Based on these scenarios, the evolution of vulnerability is estimated by using the Potential Damage Index method proposed by Puissant et al. (2013).

  7. Potential hazards of compressed air energy storage in depleted natural gas reservoirs.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, Paul W.; Grubelich, Mark Charles; Bauer, Stephen J.

    2011-09-01

    This report is a preliminary assessment of the ignition and explosion potential in a depleted hydrocarbon reservoir from air cycling associated with compressed air energy storage (CAES) in geologic media. The study identifies issues associated with this phenomenon as well as possible mitigating measures that should be considered. Compressed air energy storage (CAES) in geologic media has been proposed to help supplement renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) by providing a means to store energy when excess energy is available, and to provide an energy source during non-productive or low productivity renewable energy time periods. Presently, salt caverns represent the only proven underground storage used for CAES. Depleted natural gas reservoirs represent another potential underground storage vessel for CAES because they have demonstrated their container function and may have the requisite porosity and permeability; however reservoirs have yet to be demonstrated as a functional/operational storage media for compressed air. Specifically, air introduced into a depleted natural gas reservoir presents a situation where an ignition and explosion potential may exist. This report presents the results of an initial study identifying issues associated with this phenomena as well as possible mitigating measures that should be considered.

  8. Agent-based simulation for human-induced hazard analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulleit, William M; Drewek, Matthew W

    2011-02-01

    Terrorism could be treated as a hazard for design purposes. For instance, the terrorist hazard could be analyzed in a manner similar to the way that seismic hazard is handled. No matter how terrorism is dealt with in the design of systems, the need for predictions of the frequency and magnitude of the hazard will be required. And, if the human-induced hazard is to be designed for in a manner analogous to natural hazards, then the predictions should be probabilistic in nature. The model described in this article is a prototype model that used agent-based modeling (ABM) to analyze terrorist attacks. The basic approach in this article of using ABM to model human-induced hazards has been preliminarily validated in the sense that the attack magnitudes seem to be power-law distributed and attacks occur mostly in regions where high levels of wealth pass through, such as transit routes and markets. The model developed in this study indicates that ABM is a viable approach to modeling socioeconomic-based infrastructure systems for engineering design to deal with human-induced hazards. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

    2017-12-01

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

  10. Modified Hazard Ranking System/Hazard Ranking System for sites with mixed radioactive and hazardous wastes: Software documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Peloquin, R.A.; Hawley, K.A.

    1986-11-01

    The mHRS/HRS software package was developed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Department of Energy (DOE) to provide a uniform method for DOE facilities to use in performing their Conservation Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Phase I Modified Hazard Ranking System or Hazard Ranking System evaluations. The program is designed to remove the tedium and potential for error associated with the performing of hand calculations and the interpreting of information on tables and in reference books when performing an evaluation. The software package is designed to operate on a microcomputer (IBM PC, PC/XT, or PC/AT, or a compatible system) using either a dual floppy disk drive or a hard disk storage system. It is written in the dBASE III language and operates using the dBASE III system. Although the mHRS/HRS software package was developed for use at DOE facilities, it has direct applicability to the performing of CERCLA Phase I evaluations for any facility contaminated by hazardous waste. The software can perform evaluations using either the modified hazard ranking system methodology developed by DOE/PNL, the hazard ranking system methodology developed by EPA/MITRE Corp., or a combination of the two. This document is a companion manual to the mHRS/HRS user manual. It is intended for the programmer who must maintain the software package and for those interested in the computer implementation. This manual documents the system logic, computer programs, and data files that comprise the package. Hardware and software implementation requirements are discussed. In addition, hand calculations of three sample situations (problems) with associated computer runs used for the verification of program calculations are included.

  11. Modified Hazard Ranking System/Hazard Ranking System for sites with mixed radioactive and hazardous wastes: Software documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, R.D.; Peloquin, R.A.; Hawley, K.A.

    1986-11-01

    The mHRS/HRS software package was developed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Department of Energy (DOE) to provide a uniform method for DOE facilities to use in performing their Conservation Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Phase I Modified Hazard Ranking System or Hazard Ranking System evaluations. The program is designed to remove the tedium and potential for error associated with the performing of hand calculations and the interpreting of information on tables and in reference books when performing an evaluation. The software package is designed to operate on a microcomputer (IBM PC, PC/XT, or PC/AT, or a compatible system) using either a dual floppy disk drive or a hard disk storage system. It is written in the dBASE III language and operates using the dBASE III system. Although the mHRS/HRS software package was developed for use at DOE facilities, it has direct applicability to the performing of CERCLA Phase I evaluations for any facility contaminated by hazardous waste. The software can perform evaluations using either the modified hazard ranking system methodology developed by DOE/PNL, the hazard ranking system methodology developed by EPA/MITRE Corp., or a combination of the two. This document is a companion manual to the mHRS/HRS user manual. It is intended for the programmer who must maintain the software package and for those interested in the computer implementation. This manual documents the system logic, computer programs, and data files that comprise the package. Hardware and software implementation requirements are discussed. In addition, hand calculations of three sample situations (problems) with associated computer runs used for the verification of program calculations are included

  12. Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salna, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise

  13. Remote sensing of glacier- and permafrost-related hazards in high mountains: an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kääb

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Process interactions and chain reactions, the present shift of cryospheric hazard zones due to atmospheric warming, and the potential far reach of glacier disasters make it necessary to apply modern remote sensing techniques for the assessment of glacier and permafrost hazards in high-mountains. Typically, related hazard source areas are situated in remote regions, often difficult to access for physical and/or political reasons. In this contribution we provide an overview of air- and spaceborne remote sensing methods suitable for glacier and permafrost hazard assessment and disaster management. A number of image classification and change detection techniques support high-mountain hazard studies. Digital terrain models (DTMs, derived from optical stereo data, synthetic aperture radar or laserscanning, represent one of the most important data sets for investigating high-mountain processes. Fusion of satellite stereo-derived DTMs with the DTM from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM is a promising way to combine the advantages of both technologies. Large changes in terrain volume such as from avalanche deposits can indeed be measured even by repeat satellite DTMs. Multitemporal data can be used to derive surface displacements on glaciers, permafrost and landslides. Combining DTMs, results from spectral image classification, and multitemporal data from change detection and displacement measurements significantly improves the detection of hazard potentials. Modelling of hazardous processes based on geographic information systems (GIS complements the remote sensing analyses towards an integrated assessment of glacier and permafrost hazards in mountains. Major present limitations in the application of remote sensing to glacier and permafrost hazards in mountains are, on the one hand, of technical nature (e.g. combination and fusion of different methods and data; improved understanding of microwave backscatter. On the other hand, better

  14. Tourism facing the challenge of recurring natural hazards: a view from Cancún

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Babinger

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the duality between economic development based on tourism and the impact of land occupation at the expense of an environment that includes specific natural hazards. The transformation of coastal areas to be occupied by tourism is one of the serious problems which are not taken into account when planning the activity. Cancún is a paradigmatic model in which an explosive growth in tourists, residents and tourist buildings has led to the massive occupation of a coastal area historically and currently affected by tropical storms and hurricanes. The result is a clear increase in risk exposure and vulnerability. This space colonization by tourism and the impacts of hurricanes have a direct impact on the hotels and housing developments, which call into question the maintenance of tourism in the future.

  15. Monitoring potential neurotoxic effects of hazardous waste disposal

    OpenAIRE

    Schaumburg, Herbert H.; Spencer, Peter S.; Arezzo, Joseph C.

    1983-01-01

    This report reviews neurotoxicological principles relevant to situations of hazardous waste disposal. Some of the diagnostic techniques currently used for field assessment of nervous system dysfunction are critically evaluated. These include nerve conduction velocity, evoked potentials, neuropsychological testing and use of the Optacon.

  16. Digging Our Own Holes: Institutional Perspectives on Seismic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Tomasello, J.

    2005-12-01

    It has been observed that there are no true students of the earth; instead, we each dig our own holes and sit in them. A similar situation arises in attempts to assess the hazards of earthquakes and other natural disasters and to develop strategies to mitigate them. Ideally, we would like to look at the interests of society as a whole and develop strategies that best balance hazard mitigation with alternative uses of resources. Doing so, however, is difficult for several reasons. First, estimating seismic hazards requires assumptions about the size, recurrence, and shaking from future earthquakes, none of which are well known. Second, we have to chose a definition of seismic hazard, which is even more arbitrary and at least as significant about future earthquakes. Third, mitigating the risks involves economic and policy issues as well as the scientific one of estimating the hazard itself and the engineering one of designing safe structures. As a result, different public and private organizations with different institutional perspectives naturally adopt different approaches. Most organizations have a single focus. For example, those focusing on economic development tend to discount hazards, whereas emergency management groups tend to accentuate them. Organizations with quasi-regulatory duties (BSSC, FEMA, USGS) focus on reducing losses in future earthquakes without considering the cost of mitigation measures or how this use of resources should be balanced with alternative uses of resources that could mitigate other losses. Some organizations, however, must confront these tradeoffs directly because they allocate resources internally. Hence hospitals implicitly trade off more earthquake resistant construction with treating uninsured patients, highway departments balance stronger bridges with other safety improvements, and schools balance safer buildings with after school programs. These choices are complicated by the fact that such infrastructure typically has longer

  17. Reducing Seismic Hazard and Building Capacity Through International Cooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergino, E. S.; Arakelyan, A.; Babayan, H.; Durgaryan, R.; Elashvili, M.; Godoladze, T.; Javakhishvili, Z.; Kalogeras, I.; Karakhanyan, A.; Martin, R. J.; Yetirmishli, G.

    2012-12-01

    and development of young scientists who are able to advise their countries' decision makers in the future. By building a common and shared set of databases, making available new modern, scientific tools, and providing joint training field exercises we are working to enable the countries to make independent decisions about their infrastructures and to pool their resources in the event of another earthquake. Out of the earthquakes' devastation has come a positive outcome: a scientific partnership to address the seismic hazards along one of the world's most tectonically active regions. This is contributing to a rapprochement of the scientists, decision makers, and politicians in this region. This work was supported through the following international projects: ISTC A-1418 Project "Open Network of Scientific Centers for Mitigation Risk of Natural Hazards in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia", ISTC CSP-053 Project "Development of Communication System for Seismic Hazard Situations in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia", and NATO SfP- 983284 Project "Caucasus Seismic Emergency Response", with participants from the Southern Caucasus countries, the US, Greece, Turkey, and France. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  18. More About Hazard-Response Robot For Combustible Atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Henry W.; Ohm, Timothy R.

    1995-01-01

    Report presents additional information about design and capabilities of mobile hazard-response robot called "Hazbot III." Designed to operate safely in combustible and/or toxic atmosphere. Includes cameras and chemical sensors helping human technicians determine location and nature of hazard so human emergency team can decide how to eliminate hazard without approaching themselves.

  19. Health and Safety Procedures Manual for hazardous waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thate, J.E.

    1992-09-01

    The Oak Ridge National Laboratory Chemical Assessments Team (ORNL/CAT) has developed this Health and Safety Procedures Manual for the guidance, instruction, and protection of ORNL/CAT personnel expected to be involved in hazardous waste site assessments and remedial actions. This manual addresses general and site-specific concerns for protecting personnel, the general public, and the environment from any possible hazardous exposures. The components of this manual include: medical surveillance, guidance for determination and monitoring of hazards, personnel and training requirements, protective clothing and equipment requirements, procedures for controlling work functions, procedures for handling emergency response situations, decontamination procedures for personnel and equipment, associated legal requirements, and safe drilling practices.

  20. Fractal simulation of urbanization for the analysis of vulnerability to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puissant, Anne; Sensier, Antoine; Tannier, Cécile; Malet, Jean-Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Since 50 years, mountain areas are affected by important land cover/use changes characterized by the decrease of pastoral activities, reforestation and urbanization with the development of tourism activities and infrastructures. These natural and anthropogenic transformations have an impact on the socio-economic activities but also on the exposure of the communities to natural hazards. In the context of the ANR Project SAMCO which aims at enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks, the objective of this research was to help to determine where to locate new residential developments for different scenarios of land cover/use (based on the Prelude European Project) for the years 2030 and 2050. The Planning Support System (PSS), called MUP-City, based on a fractal multi-scale modeling approach is used because it allows taking into account local accessibility to some urban and rural amenities (Tannier et al., 2012). For this research, an experiment is performed on a mountain area in the French Alps (Barcelonnette Basin) to generate three scenarios of urban development with MUP-City at the scale of 1:10:000. The results are assessed by comparing the localization of residential developments with urban areas predicted by land cover and land use scenarios generated by cellular automata modelling (LCM and Dyna-clue) (Puissant et al., 2015). Based on these scenarios, the evolution of vulnerability is estimated.

  1. Situation Awareness in Sea Kayaking: Towards a Practical Checklist

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aadland, Eivind; Vikene, Odd Lennart; Varley, Peter; Moe, Vegard Fusche

    2017-01-01

    Ever-changing weather and sea conditions constitute environmental hazards that sea kayakers must pay attention to and act upon to stay safe. The aim of this study was to propose a tool to aid sea kayakers' situation awareness (SA). We developed a checklist guided by theory on the concept of SA and expert problem detection, judgement and…

  2. Causal Mediation Analysis for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model with a Smooth Baseline Hazard Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Albert, Jeffrey M

    2017-08-01

    An important problem within the social, behavioral, and health sciences is how to partition an exposure effect (e.g. treatment or risk factor) among specific pathway effects and to quantify the importance of each pathway. Mediation analysis based on the potential outcomes framework is an important tool to address this problem and we consider the estimation of mediation effects for the proportional hazards model in this paper. We give precise definitions of the total effect, natural indirect effect, and natural direct effect in terms of the survival probability, hazard function, and restricted mean survival time within the standard two-stage mediation framework. To estimate the mediation effects on different scales, we propose a mediation formula approach in which simple parametric models (fractional polynomials or restricted cubic splines) are utilized to approximate the baseline log cumulative hazard function. Simulation study results demonstrate low bias of the mediation effect estimators and close-to-nominal coverage probability of the confidence intervals for a wide range of complex hazard shapes. We apply this method to the Jackson Heart Study data and conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the impact on the mediation effects inference when the no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding assumption is violated.

  3. INTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS FOR LICENSE APPLICATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.J. Garrett

    2005-02-17

    The purpose of this internal hazards analysis is to identify and document the internal hazards and potential initiating events associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain. Internal hazards are those hazards presented by the operation of the facility and by its associated processes that can potentially lead to a radioactive release or cause a radiological hazard. In contrast to external hazards, internal hazards do not involve natural phenomena and external man-made hazards. This internal hazards analysis was performed in support of the preclosure safety analysis and the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. The methodology for this analysis provides a systematic means to identify internal hazards and potential initiating events that may result in a radiological hazard or radiological release during the repository preclosure period. These hazards are documented in tables of potential internal hazards and potential initiating events (Section 6.6) for input to the repository event sequence categorization process. The results of this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply to the performance of event sequence analyses for the repository preclosure period. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that internal hazards that have not been previously evaluated are identified.

  4. INTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS FOR LICENSE APPLICATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrett, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this internal hazards analysis is to identify and document the internal hazards and potential initiating events associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain. Internal hazards are those hazards presented by the operation of the facility and by its associated processes that can potentially lead to a radioactive release or cause a radiological hazard. In contrast to external hazards, internal hazards do not involve natural phenomena and external man-made hazards. This internal hazards analysis was performed in support of the preclosure safety analysis and the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. The methodology for this analysis provides a systematic means to identify internal hazards and potential initiating events that may result in a radiological hazard or radiological release during the repository preclosure period. These hazards are documented in tables of potential internal hazards and potential initiating events (Section 6.6) for input to the repository event sequence categorization process. The results of this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply to the performance of event sequence analyses for the repository preclosure period. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that internal hazards that have not been previously evaluated are identified

  5. Energy situation november 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-12-01

    The monthly situation analysis in France is presented. Statistics are given for energy consumption, demand, import and export. A special attention is given to the primary energy, the solid fuels, the petroleum products, the natural gas and the electric power. (A.L.B.)

  6. Energy situation August 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-09-01

    The monthly situation analysis in France is presented. Statistics are given for energy consumption, demand, import and export. A special attention is given to the primary energy, the solid fuels, the petroleum products, the natural gas and the electric power. (A.L.B.)

  7. Practicality for Software Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Safety I and C System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yong-Ho; Moon, Kwon-Ki; Chang, Young-Woo; Jeong, Soo-Hyun

    2016-01-01

    We are using the concept of system safety in engineering. It is difficult to make any system perfectly safe and probably a complete system may not easily be achieved. The standard definition of a system from MIL-STD- 882E is: “The organization of hardware, software, material, facilities, personnel, data, and services needed to perform a designated function within a stated environment with specified results.” From the perspective of the system safety engineer and the hazard analysis process, software is considered as a subsystem. Regarding hazard analysis, to date, methods for identifying software failures and determining their effects is still a research problem. Since the success of software development is based on rigorous test of hardware and software, it is necessary to check the balance between software test and hardware test, and in terms of efficiency. Lessons learned and experience from similar systems are important for the work of hazard analysis. No major hazard has been issued for the software developed and verified in Korean NPPs. In addition to hazard analysis, software development, and verification and validation were thoroughly performed. It is reasonable that the test implementation including the development of the test case, stress and abnormal conditions, error recovery situations, and high risk hazardous situations play a key role in detecting and preventing software faults

  8. Practicality for Software Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Safety I and C System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yong-Ho; Moon, Kwon-Ki; Chang, Young-Woo; Jeong, Soo-Hyun [KEPCO Engineering and Construction Co., Deajeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    We are using the concept of system safety in engineering. It is difficult to make any system perfectly safe and probably a complete system may not easily be achieved. The standard definition of a system from MIL-STD- 882E is: “The organization of hardware, software, material, facilities, personnel, data, and services needed to perform a designated function within a stated environment with specified results.” From the perspective of the system safety engineer and the hazard analysis process, software is considered as a subsystem. Regarding hazard analysis, to date, methods for identifying software failures and determining their effects is still a research problem. Since the success of software development is based on rigorous test of hardware and software, it is necessary to check the balance between software test and hardware test, and in terms of efficiency. Lessons learned and experience from similar systems are important for the work of hazard analysis. No major hazard has been issued for the software developed and verified in Korean NPPs. In addition to hazard analysis, software development, and verification and validation were thoroughly performed. It is reasonable that the test implementation including the development of the test case, stress and abnormal conditions, error recovery situations, and high risk hazardous situations play a key role in detecting and preventing software faults.

  9. Venezuelan policies and responses on climate change and natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponi, Claudio; Rosales, Anibal

    1992-06-01

    Venezuela is an intertropical country which has the fortune not to suffer the severities of natural hazards which are usual in other countries of this region. It is a developing country, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil production and exports. Its greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low, but it is expected that the planned industrialization development will bring an associated increase in emissions. As a nation, Venezuela has a highly developed environmental consciousness. The Ministry of environment, the first in Latin America, was created in 1977, and has been the main contributor to the national policy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction. As in many developing countries actions and responses in this regard have been rather limited in scope, and even though legislation has been developed, many problems arise for its enforcement. Several local warning systems, civil defense procedures, and infrastructural protection measures are operational, however they have not been designed, revised, or planned taking into consideration the potential impacts of climate change. Presently Venezuela is an active participant state in the negotiation for a framework convention on climate change. That is a very difficult negotiation for our country. Here we have to conciliate enviromental principles with national economic interests. The elements of our position in this contex are presented in this statement.

  10. Situational Influences on Reactions to Observed Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitz, Leonard

    1986-01-01

    Examines data on what situational factors influence people's desire to view violent television programming. Surveys research on the effects on viewer's behavior of the presence of other observers, the nature of the available target, situational features operating as retrieval cues, the viewers' interpretations of the violent scenes, and the…

  11. France energy situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The monthly (May 1991) energy situation analysis in France is presented: the energy consumption rise is lowered and especially, oil imports have fallen from -3.1 pc; natural gas imports and domestic electric power production have risen. The energy import dependence rate have very slightly risen, around 50 pc. Diagrams for 1989, 1990, 1991 are presented [fr

  12. Selected papers on natural and man-made hazards and related questions from the 6th international CODATA conference. [Santa Flavia, Palermo, Italy, May 22-25, 1978

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dreyfus, B. (ed.)

    Eighty-seven papers were presented at this conference, which had the four themes of quality of life and environment, preservation of natural ecosystems, prediction of natural disasters, and prevention of manmade hazards. The present bulletin contains ten papers felt to be representative; these deal with earthquake prediction, pattern recognition as a method of data analysis, long-term environmental hazards, analysis of numerical biological data, operation of a data bank in biomedical science, data importance in relation to Chesapeake Bay pollution, data banks in food and agriculture, the Seveso accident, and industry needs concerning information on materials. Separate abstracts were prepared for three of the papers. (RWR)

  13. Advance of Hazardous Operation Robot and its Application in Special Equipment Accident Rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qin-Da; Zhou, Wei; Zheng, Geng-Feng

    A survey of hazardous operation robot is given out in this article. Firstly, the latest researches such as nuclear industry robot, fire-fighting robot and explosive-handling robot are shown. Secondly, existing key technologies and their shortcomings are summarized, including moving mechanism, control system, perceptive technology and power technology. Thirdly, the trend of hazardous operation robot is predicted according to current situation. Finally, characteristics and hazards of special equipment accident, as well as feasibility of hazardous operation robot in the area of special equipment accident rescue are analyzed.

  14. Natural Hazard Problem and Solution Definition in the News Media: the Case of Tropical Storm Allison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, Eric; Mosher-Howe, Katrina

    2010-05-01

    Focusing events such as natural or technological disasters can have significant impacts on public policy and planning in both the near and long term. These impacts can manifest at different temporal scales ranging from the period of immediate attention and disaster relief through the period of recovery and reconstruction and beyond. These impacts and associated decisions can be studied in retrospect and understood as not only short-term reactions, but as long-term components of subsequent natural hazard planning and public policy. By studying in detail how an event was defined, and the policy and planning alternatives that were raised or recommended in response to a disaster event, we can better understand the role that disaster-related focusing events play in the long-term evolution of a community's public policy, infrastructural planning efforts, and responses to natural disasters. This paper will use a focusing event framework to explore the local and regional policy impacts over time of a major urban flood in Houston, Texas, Tropical Storm Allison. Tropical Storm Allison (TSA), dropped 36 inches of rain on Houston over a period of four days in early June 2001, and was responsible for 22 deaths, 70,000 flood damaged homes, and 5 billion in damage to the region. The primary data source for this effort is a database of 500 articles from the major regional newspaper, the Houston Chronicle, over the period of 2001 through 2008. These articles were coded for multiple variables, including, cause, effect and impact (financial and social), blame, problem and solution definition and solution acceptance). This paper focuses primarily on the measures of problem definition (how was TSA, as an event, defined in the media, for example, as an act of God, or as a result of poor planning or decision making, etc), and on solution definition (what solutions were proposed to mitigate or adapt to future storms of this magnitude, how were they linked to the definition of the problem

  15. The use of animals as a surveillance tool for monitoring environmental health hazards, human health hazards and bioterrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neo, Jacqueline Pei Shan; Tan, Boon Huan

    2017-05-01

    This review discusses the utilization of wild or domestic animals as surveillance tools for monitoring naturally occurring environmental and human health hazards. Besides providing early warning to natural hazards, animals can also provide early warning to societal hazards like bioterrorism. Animals are ideal surveillance tools to humans because they share the same environment as humans and spend more time outdoors than humans, increasing their exposure risk. Furthermore, the biologically compressed lifespans of some animals may allow them to develop clinical signs more rapidly after exposure to specific pathogens. Animals are an excellent channel for monitoring novel and known pathogens with outbreak potential given that more than 60 % of emerging infectious diseases in humans originate as zoonoses. This review attempts to highlight animal illnesses, deaths, biomarkers or sentinel events, to remind human and veterinary public health programs that animal health can be used to discover, monitor or predict environmental health hazards, human health hazards, or bioterrorism. Lastly, we hope that this review will encourage the implementation of animals as a surveillance tool by clinicians, veterinarians, ecosystem health professionals, researchers and governments. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. A New Method for Rating Hazard from Intense Sounds: Implications for Hearing Protection, Speech Intelligibility, and Situation Awareness

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Price, G. R

    2005-01-01

    The auditory hazard assessment algorithm for the human (AHAAH), developed by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, is theoretically based and has been demonstrated to rate hazard from intense sounds much more accurately than existing methods...

  17. Morphometric and landuse analysis: implications on flood hazards ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assessed the morphometric, landuse and lithological attributes of five basins (Iwaraja, Ilesa, Olupona, Osogbo I and Osogbo II) with particular reference to flood hazards in Ilesa and Osogbo metropolis, Osun State Nigeria. Ilesa town is situated within Iwaraja and Ilesa basins while Osogbo metropolis spread ...

  18. Energy situation, January 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    The monthly energy situation analysis in France, at January 2006, is presented. Statistics are given for energy consumption, demand, import and export. A special attention is given to the primary energy, the solid fuels, the petroleum products, the natural gas and the electric power. (A.L.B.)

  19. Energy situation november 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-12-01

    The monthly energy situation analysis in France at November 2005 is presented. Statistics are given for energy consumption, demand, import and export. A special attention is given to the primary energy, the solid fuels, the petroleum products, the natural gas and the electric power. (A.L.B.)

  20. Energy situation July 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-08-01

    The monthly energy situation in France at july 2004 is presented. Statistics are given on energy accounting, imports, exports, energy prices. A special attention is given to the primary energy, the solid fuels, the petroleum products, the natural gas and the electric power. (A.L.B.)

  1. Sustainable System for Residual Hazards Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin M. Kostelnik; James H. Clarke; Jerry L. Harbour

    2004-01-01

    Hazardous, radioactive and other toxic substances have routinely been generated and subsequently disposed of in the shallow subsurface throughout the world. Many of today's waste management techniques do not eliminate the problem, but rather only concentrate or contain the hazardous contaminants. Residual hazards result from the presence of hazardous and/or contaminated material that remains on-site following active operations or the completion of remedial actions. Residual hazards pose continued risk to humans and the environment and represent a significant and chronic problem that require continuous long-term management (i.e. >1000 years). To protect human health and safeguard the natural environment, a sustainable system is required for the proper management of residual hazards. A sustainable system for the management of residual hazards will require the integration of engineered, institutional and land-use controls to isolate residual contaminants and thus minimize the associated hazards. Engineered controls are physical modifications to the natural setting and ecosystem, including the site, facility, and/or the residual materials themselves, in order to reduce or eliminate the potential for exposure to contaminants of concern (COCs). Institutional controls are processes, instruments, and mechanisms designed to influence human behavior and activity. System failure can involve hazardous material escaping from the confinement because of system degradation (i.e., chronic or acute degradation) or by external intrusion of the biosphere into the contaminated material because of the loss of institutional control. An ongoing analysis of contemporary and historic sites suggests that the significance of the loss of institutional controls is a critical pathway because decisions made during the operations/remedial action phase, as well as decisions made throughout the residual hazards management period, are key to the long-term success of the prescribed system. In fact

  2. Evaluation of natural radioactivity and its associated health hazard indices of a South Indian river

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krishnamoorthy, N.; Mullainathan, S.; Mehra, R.; Chaparro, Marcos A.E.; Chaparro, Mauro A.E.

    2014-01-01

    The activity concentration of the natural radionuclides 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K was measured for sediment samples collected from thirty-three different locations along the Bharathapuzha river basin by using high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometry. The concentrations of the natural radionuclides were found to vary from location to location, and their mean values are 19.6, 82.87 and 19.44 % higher than the worldwide mean values of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K, respectively. The value of 232 Th was found to be higher than that of 226 Ra in 82 % of the samples collected for this study. The calculated values of indoor gamma dose rate (D IN ) ranged between 89.55 and 194.24 nGy h -1 , and the overall mean value is 63.2 % higher than the recommended safe and criterion limit by UNSCEAR. The internal and external hazard indices (H in and H ex ), the representative gamma index and alpha index (I gamma and I alpha ), the annual gonad dose equivalent (AGDE) and the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) were also calculated and compared with the international recommended values. Multivariate statistical analyses were also carried out to determine the relation between the natural radionuclides and various radiological parameters. (authors)

  3. Assessment of natural radioactivity and associated radiation hazards in some Cameroonian building materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngachin, M.; Garavaglia, M.; Giovani, C.; Kwato Njock, M.G.; Nourreddine, A.

    2007-01-01

    The concentration of 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K in 13 building materials obtained from factories and collected in field in Cameroon were investigated by γ-ray spectrometry. The activity ranged from 1.76 to 49.84Bqkg -1 , 0.32 to 147Bqkg -1 and 18 to 1226Bqkg -1 for 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K, respectively. The highest 238 U activity was found in compressed red soil brick type I (49.6+/-0.3Bqkg -1 ) produced by a local manufacturer while the highest 232 Th (139+/-13Bqkg -1 ) and 40 K (1162+/-108Bqkg -1 ) activities were found in gravel collected from an exploitation site in Logbadjeck. The activities are compared with available data from other investigations and with the world average value for soils. The radium equivalent activity Ra eq , the external hazard index H ex , the indoor absorbed dose rate D-bar in air and the annual effective dose equivalent E-bar were evaluated to assess the radiation hazard for people living in dwellings made of the materials studied. All building materials have shown Ra eq (range from 10 to 313Bqkg -1 ) lower than the limit of 370Bqkg -1 set in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD, 1979. Exposure to radiation from the natural radioactivity in building materials. OECD, Paris] report which is equivalent to a γ-dose of 1.5mSvyr -1 . Except for the gravel from Logbadjeck, all the materials examined are acceptable for use as building materials as defined by the OECD criterion

  4. Natural phenomena hazards evaluation of concrete silos 1, 2, 3 and 4 at Fernald, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Char, C.V.; Shiner, T.J.

    1995-08-01

    Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) is a United States Department of Energy (DOE) site located near Cincinnati, Ohio. FEMP was formerly established as the Feed Materials Production Center (FMPC) in 1951 under the Atomic Energy Commission. FEMP is currently undergoing site wide environmental remediation. This paper addresses four concrete silos built during the 1950s and located in Operable Unit 4 (OU-4). Silos 1 and 2 known as K-65 Silos contain residues from Uranium Ore processing. Silo 3 contains metal oxides in powder form. Silo 4 is empty. The Silos are categorized as low hazard facilities and the Natural Phenomena Hazards (NPH) performance category is PC-2, based on a recently completed safety analysis report. This paper describes the structural evaluation of concrete Silos 1, 2, 3 and 4 for NPH. Non Destructive Tests (NDT) were conducted to establish the current conditions of the silos. Analytical and computer methods were used to evaluate the stresses and displacements for different silo configurations and different loading combinations. Finite element models were developed to uniquely represent each silo, and analyzed using SAP90 computer program. The SAPLOT post processor was used for rapid determination of critical areas of concern for critical loading combinations and for varying silo configurations

  5. The Identification of Filters and Interdependencies for Effective Resource Allocation: Coupling the Mitigation of Natural Hazards to Economic Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agar, S. M.; Kunreuther, H.

    2005-12-01

    Policy formulation for the mitigation and management of risks posed by natural hazards requires that governments confront difficult decisions for resource allocation and be able to justify their spending. Governments also need to recognize when spending offers little improvement and the circumstances in which relatively small amounts of spending can make substantial differences. Because natural hazards can have detrimental impacts on local and regional economies, patterns of economic development can also be affected by spending decisions for disaster mitigation. This paper argues that by mapping interdependencies among physical, social and economic factors, governments can improve resource allocation to mitigate the risks of natural hazards while improving economic development on local and regional scales. Case studies of natural hazards in Turkey have been used to explore specific "filters" that act to modify short- and long-term outcomes. Pre-event filters can prevent an event from becoming a natural disaster or change a routine event into a disaster. Post-event filters affect both short and long-term recovery and development. Some filters cannot be easily modified by spending (e.g., rural-urban migration) but others (e.g., land-use practices) provide realistic spending targets. Net social benefits derived from spending, however, will also depend on the ways by which filters are linked, or so-called "interdependencies". A single weak link in an interdependent system, such as a power grid, can trigger a cascade of failures. Similarly, weak links in social and commercial networks can send waves of disruption through communities. Conversely, by understanding the positive impacts of interdependencies, spending can be targeted to maximize net social benefits while mitigating risks and improving economic development. Detailed information on public spending was not available for this study but case studies illustrate how networks of interdependent filters can modify

  6. Hazards from radioactive waste in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1979-01-01

    This paper compares the hazards from wastes from a 1000-MW(e) nuclear power plant to these from wastes from a 1000-MW(e) coal fueled power plant. The latter hazard is much greater than the former. The toxicity and carcinogenity of the chemicals prodcued in coal burning is emphasized. Comparisions are also made with other toxic chemicals and with natural radioactivity

  7. Energy situation November 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-12-01

    The monthly energy situation in France, at November 2006, is presented. Statistics are given for the energy expenses, consumption, demand, import and export. A special attention is given to the primary energy, the solid fuels, the petroleum products, the natural gas and the electric power. (A.L.B.)

  8. Best practices in risk and crisis communication: Implications for natural hazards management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toddi A. Steelman; Sarah McCaffrey

    2013-01-01

    As societies evolve, often the most appropriate response to the hazard must also evolve. However, such shifts in appropriate response to a hazard, whether at the individual or at the societal level, are rarely straightforward: Closing the gap between desired practice and current practice requires effective communication. Although there is a significant literature on...

  9. Consistency between subjectively and objectively measured hazard perception skills among young male drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abele, Liva; Haustein, Sonja; Møller, Mette

    2018-01-01

    . Subjective measures of HPS include self-reports derived based on the Hazard Perception Questionnaire (HPQ), Driving Skill Questionnaire (DSQ), and Brief Sensation Seeking Scale (BSSS). Results show that drivers who respond to the hazards on time, as compared to drivers who do not respond, have higher scores......Young male drivers have lower hazard perception skills (HPS) than older and more experienced drivers and a tendency to overestimate their skills in hazardous situations. Both factors contribute to an over-representation in traffic accidents. Based on a sample of 63 drivers aged 18-24, this study...... negatively when the hazard is visible. To enhance the HPS among young drivers, the results of this study suggest that specific hazard perception training is relevant, especially for hazards that require more advanced HPS....

  10. Flood Hazard Assessment for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    2000-01-01

    A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood hazard curves for SRS facilities. The flood hazard curves for the SRS F-Area due to flooding in the Upper Three Runs basin are presented in this paper

  11. Waste management in Greenland: current situation and challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eisted, Rasmus; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2011-01-01

    Waste management in Greenland (56 000 inhabitants) is characterized by landfilling, incineration and export to Denmark of small quantities of metals and hazardous waste. The annual amount of waste is estimated to about 50 000 tons but actual data are scarce. Data on the waste composition is basic...... are small and equipped with only moderate flue gas cleaning technology. This report summarizes the current waste management situation in Greenland and identifies important challenges in improving the waste management....... is basically lacking. The scattered small towns and settlements, the climate and the long transport distances between towns and also to recycling industries abroad constitute a complex situation with respect to waste management. The landfills have no collection of gas and leachate and the incinerators...

  12. Health hazards from environmental pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wichmann, H.E.

    1990-01-01

    Three examples from current research are cited in order to show the health hazards from environmental pollution and to describe methods of risk quantification: (1) The smog situation of January 1985 is analyzed on the basis of detailed morbidity and mortality statistics; (2) The current knowledge on the contribution of radon decay products to lung cancer is discussed; (3) The problem of abandoned industrial sites is illustrated by a population group living on contaminated ground. (orig.) [de

  13. Geomorphological hazards in Swat valley, Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usman, A.

    1999-01-01

    This study attempts to describe, interpret and analyze, in depth, the varied geomorphological hazards and their impacts prevailing in the swat valley locate in the northern hilly and mountainous regions of Pakistan. The hills and mountains re zones of high geomorphological activity with rapid rates of weathering, active tectonic activities, abundant precipitation, rapid runoff and heavy sediment transport. Due to the varied topography, lithology, steep slope, erodible soil, heavy winter snowfall and intensive rainfall in the spring and summer seasons, several kinds of geomorphological hazards, such as geomorphic gravitational hazards, Fluvial hazards, Glacial hazards, Geo tectonic hazards, are occurring frequently in swat valley. Amongst them, geomorphic gravitational hazards, such as rock fall rock slide, debris slide mud flow avalanches, are major hazards in mountains and hills while fluvial hazards and sedimentation are mainly confined to the alluvial plain and lowlands of the valley. The Getechtonic hazards, on the other hand, have wide spread distribution in the valley the magnitude and occurrence of each king of hazard is thus, varied according to intensity of process and physical geographic environment. This paper discusses the type distribution and damage due to the various geomorphological hazards and their reduction treatments. The study would to be of particular importance and interest to both natural and social scientists, as well as planner, environmentalists and decision-makers for successful developmental interventions in the region. (author)

  14. Energy situation August 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-08-01

    This publication presents a monthly report of the French energy situation: primary energy consumption, energy independence and CO_2 emissions, national production, imports, exports, energy costs, average and spot prices. Data are presented separately for solid mineral fuels, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity in the form of tables and graphs

  15. Energy situation July 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-07-01

    This publication presents a monthly report of the French energy situation: primary energy consumption, energy independence and CO_2 emissions, national production, imports, exports, energy costs, average and spot prices. Data are presented separately for solid mineral fuels, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity in the form of tables and graphs

  16. Energy situation September 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-09-01

    This publication presents a monthly report of the French energy situation: primary energy consumption, energy independence and CO_2 emissions, national production, imports, exports, energy costs, average and spot prices. Data are presented separately for solid mineral fuels, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity in the form of tables and graphs

  17. Flood hazard assessment for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    2000-01-01

    A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. The flood hazard curves for the SRS F-Area due to flooding in the Upper Three Runs basin are presented in this paper

  18. Estimation of possible radiological hazards from natural radioactivity in commercially-utilized ornamental and countertops granite tiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turhan, Şeref

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The study presents the activity concentrations of radionuclides in granite tile samples. ► The activity concentrations of radionuclides are measured by gamma spectrometer.. ► In this study, possible radiological hazards from usage of these materials are estimated. ► The external exposure index and internal index are calculated. ► The indoor absorbed gamma dose rate and the corresponding annual effective dose are evaluated. - Abstract: The aim of this study is to estimate natural radioactivity levels of commercially-utilized ornamental or countertops granite tiles collected from major retailers in Turkey and possible radiological hazards from usage of these materials by calculating external exposure and internal index, indoor absorbed gamma dose rate and the corresponding annual effective dose. The activity concentrations of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K were determined for 42 kinds of different granite tiles using high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometer. The activity concentration of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K varied from 9.2 to 192.5 Bq kg −1 (with a mean of 88.4 ± 6.9 Bq kg −1 ), 7.5 to 344.6 Bq kg −1 (with a mean of 95.3 ± 10.0 Bq kg −1 ) and 92.1 to 4155.9 Bq kg −1 (with a mean of 1055.2 ± 103.0 Bq kg −1 ), respectively. The estimated radiological hazard indices were revised in the light of the relevant national and international legislation and guidance. The values of the radiological hazard indices were found to be within relevant all limit values for superficial materials. The indoor absorbed gamma dose rates estimated from the activity concentrations of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K and the corresponding annual effective doses varied from 4.74 to 85.27 nGy h −1 and 0.02 to 0.42 mSv, respectively.

  19. Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

    2014-05-01

    Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention

  20. Flood Hazard Assessment for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    1999-01-01

    'A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods.'

  1. Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

    2018-02-01

    One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

  2. Hungarian situation of the technologically enhanced naturally occuring radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juhasz, L.; Szerbin, P.; Czoch, I.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: In Hungary, the main goal is that the Hungarian regulations should meet with the EU Directive No. 96/29. For this aim, a surveying project has been launched in order to collect all relevant information about the Hungarian TENORM situation. This surveying programme covers a lot of data collection (work activities, disposal places, residue quantities) and radiological measurements on the TENORM site. The Hungarian situation of TENORM definitely differs from other countries in the aspect of occurrence forms of natural sources (or in the imported raw materials), in the quantities of exploitation, in the level of the radioactivity and in the applied technological processes. Firstly, those work activities have been choosen where the huge amount of residues have been produced. The other criteria is that the activity concentration in a great portion of the given residues is much higher than the average activity concentration of the typical Hungarian soil. After filtering and ranking, the following main activities enhanced the radioactivity level are left: uranium mining and milling, coal mining, coal firing in power plants, bauxite mining and aluminous earth production. At the uranium mining and milling area the uranium content of residues ranges from 20 to 70 g t -1 , and above those the dose rate is 0.4-10 μSv h -1 . The waste rock piles and heaps for leaching were restored and the remediation of tailings ponds is still under way. In the mountain Mecsek and on the territory from the highland Balaton to the mountain Vertes, the radioactivity level of the coals is 10-50 times higher than the worldwide average. The coal fired plants have piled up in the order of magnitude of 10 million tons of fly ash, bottom ash and slag in ponds around the plants. The radioactivity of U-238 series of ash and slag is in the range from 200 to 2000 Bq·kg -1 . The radionuclide concentrations of bauxite ores range from 200 to 300 Bq·kg -1 . At the refining factories, a lot of red

  3. Assessment of natural radionuclides and its radiological hazards from tiles made in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joel, E. S.; Maxwell, O.; Adewoyin, O. O.; Ehi-Eromosele, C. O.; Embong, Z.; Saeed, M. A.

    2018-03-01

    Activity concentration of 10 different brands of tiles made in Nigeria were analyzed using High purity Germanium gamma detector and its hazard indices such as absorbed dose rate, radium equivalent activity, external Hazard Index (Hex), internal Hazard Index (Hin), Annual Effective Dose (mSv/y), Gamma activity Index (Iγ) and Alpha Index (Iα) were determined. The result showed that the average activity concentrations of radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) content are within the recommended limit. The average radium equivalent is within the recommended limit of 370 Bq/kg. The result obtained further showed that the mean values for the absorbed dose rate (D), external and internal hazard index, the annual effective dose (AEDR) equivalent, gamma activity index and Alpha Index were: 169.22 nGyh-1, 0.95 and 1.14, 1.59 mSv/y, 1.00 Sv yr-1 and 0.34 respectively. The result established that radiological hazards such as absorbed dose rate, internal hazard, annual effective dose rate, gamma activity index and Alpha Index for some samples are found to be slightly close or above international recommended values. The result for the present study was compared with tiles sample from others countries, it was observed that the concentration of tiles made in Nigeria and other countries are closer, however recommends proper radiation monitoring for some tiles made in Nigeria before usage due to the long term health effect.

  4. An analysis of land use planning and equity issues surrounding hazardous liquid and natural gas transmission pipelines in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Anna Christine

    Hazardous liquid and natural gas transmission pipelines have received limited attention by planning scholars even though local development decisions can have broad consequences if a rupture occurs. In this dissertation, I evaluated the implications of land-use planning for reducing risk to transmission pipeline hazards in North Carolina via three investigations. First, using a survey of planning directors in jurisdictions with transmission pipeline hazards, I investigated the land use planning tools used to mitigate pipeline hazards and the factors associated with tool adoption. Planning scholars have documented the difficulty of inducing planning in hazardous areas, yet there remain gaps in knowledge about the factors associated with tool adoption. Despite the risks associated with pipeline ruptures, I found most localities use few mitigation tools, and the adoption of regulatory and informational tools appear to be influenced by divergent factors. Whereas risk perception, commitment, capacity, and community context were associated with total tool and information tool use, only risk perception and capacity factors were associated with regulatory tool use. Second, using interviews of emergency managers and planning directors, I examined the role of agency collaboration for building mitigation capacity. Scholars have highlighted the potential of technical collaboration, yet less research has investigated how inter-agency collaboration shapes mitigation capacity. I identify three categories of technical collaboration, discuss how collaborative spillovers can occur from one planning area to another, and challenge the notion that all technical collaborations result in equal mitigation outcomes. Third, I evaluated characteristics of the population near pipelines to address equity concerns. Surprisingly, I did not find broad support for differences in exposure of vulnerable populations. Nonetheless, my analyses uncovered statistically significant clusters of vulnerable

  5. Assessment of natural radioactivity and radiation hazard indices in soil samples of East Khasi Hills District, Meghalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyngkhoi, B.; Nongkynrih, P.

    2018-04-01

    The Activity Concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides such as 40K, 238U and 232Th were determined from 20 (twenty) villages of East Khasi Hills District of Meghalaya, India using gamma-ray spectroscopy. This District is adjacent to the South-West Khasi Hills District located in the same state where heavy deposit of uranium has been identified [1]. The measured activities of 40K, 238U and 232Th were found ranging from 93.4 to 606.3, 23.2 to 140.9 and 25.1 to 158.9 Bq kg-1 with their average values of 207.9, 45.6 and 63.8 Bq kg-1, respectively. The obtained value of activity concentration for 40K is lower than the world average value 400.0 Bq kg-1 while for 238U and 232Th, the average concentrations are above the world average values 35.0 and 30.0 Bq kg-1, respectively. The calculated Absorbed Dose Rate gamma-radiation of the natural radionuclides ranged from 37.4 to 186.5 nGy h-1 with an average of 71.3 nGy h-1. The outdoor Annual Effective Dose Rate received by an individual ranged from 50.0-230.0 µSv y-1 with an average value of 87.5 µSv y-1. The physical and chemical properties of the soil have no effects on the naturally occurring radionuclides concentrations. This has been revealed by the results obtained as there is no positive correlation between physical/chemical parameters and the radionuclides concentrations in the soil samples [2]. It is observed that good positive correlations among the radionuclides concentrations and with the measured dose rate prevail. The findings show that the values of external and internal hazard indices resulting from the measured activity concentrations of natural radionuclides in soil from the collected sampling areas are less than the International Recommended safety limits of 1 (unity) with the exception of Mylliem (1.12) where the External hazard index is slightly higher.

  6. A new web-based course: dealing with glaciers and permafrost hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oswald, S.; Kaeaeb, A.; Haeberli, W.

    2003-04-01

    The intensive human use of high mountains intersects more and more with the hazard zones of such environments. Because of the complexity of such processes and impacts, dealing with such risks requires a broad education in many sub-domains of the earth sciences and the socio-economic field. Inter- and trans-disciplinary training and education of professionals is therefore essential. Thus the goal of the Swiss Virtual Campus project "Dealing with Natural Hazards" is to provide such a course program covering the basics of dealing with natural hazards, including technical, environmental and social aspects. In the field of natural hazards and risk management, education at the Swiss universities is mostly structured in narrow sectors. Using the advantages of the internet, the Virtual Campus provides teachers and students an interdisciplinary discussion platform on the integral approach and the handling with natural hazards. The course content is organised in 5 modules: 1 basic knowledge and tools, 2 hydrological / meteorological hazards, 3 geological hazards, 4 vulnerability of property and of socio-economic systems and 5 integral natural risk management. To ensure a national and international access the courses are designed in English and published on the internet. Within the scope of this project we are developing lessons in the subject area of natural hazards related to glaciers and permafrost. These are ice avalanches, glacier floods, glacier length variations and permafrost. The content is divided into chapters, which are consistent over the entire module: (1) processes: characterisation of the different processes, (2) triggering: initiating events, (3) data acquisition, mapping and monitoring: appropriate methods, (4) estimation models: application of the adequate model, (5) combinations and interactions: interrelation and impacts of different hazards, (6) long-term effects: global change effects, (7) integral hazard recognition and assessment: integral proceedings

  7. HEURISTIC APPROACH BY GEOTECHNICAL HAZARD EVALUATION OF THE MEDVEDNICA NATURE PARK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Miklin

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In making the article, several thematic maps with scale 1:25000 were used. It is the lithological map with outlined engineering geological units, the inclination map with four categories and the landslide map with the areas with increased erosion and generally unstable areas are shown, structural-geomorphological map, surface and groundwater condition map and hydrogeological map. The last one was used with the aim to evaluate the influence of hydrogeological relationship on the synthetic hazard map. The integration of facts from all the maps and engineering evaluation lead to new quality that was presented in the last - synthetic, qualitative map of prognostic meaning. They have been adopted as the factor maps and with their overlapping the map with new contents was made. The Preliminary qualitative map of sliding hazard, including the erosion, was made by heuristic approach, as a predecessor to the hazard map. Such maps proved to be very useful as bases for spatial and development planning on the regional level as well as for evaluation of the site suitability for building.

  8. Focused study of interweaving hazards across the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, John J.; Mattioli, Glen S.; Calais, Eric; Carlson, David; Dixon, Timothy H.; Jackson, Michael E.; Kursinski, E. Robert; Mora-Paez, Hector; Miller, M. Meghan; Pandya, Rajul; Robertson, Richard; Wang, Guoquan

    2012-02-01

    The Caribbean is a region of lush vegetation, beaches, active volcanoes, and significant mountain ranges, all of which create a natural aesthetic that is recognized globally. Yet these very same features, molded through geological, oceanic, and atmospheric processes, also pose natural hazards for the developing countries in the Caribbean. The rise in population density, migration to coastal areas, and substandard building practices, combined with the threat of natural hazards, put the region's human population at risk for particularly devastating disasters. These demographic and social characteristics exist against a backdrop of the threat of an evolving climate, which produces a more vigorous hurricane environment and a rising average sea level.

  9. Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the

  10. Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

    2016-04-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original

  11. Natural Environmental Hazards Reflected in High-Altitude Patagonian Lake Sediments (lake Caviahue, Argentina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Anne; Scharf, Burkhard; von Tümpling, Wolf; Pirrung, Michael

    2009-03-01

    Two 6-m long sediment cores drilled in the two basins of Lake Caviahue give new evidence of the impact of natural hazards such as ash fallouts linked to nearby volcanic eruptions in the ecologically sensitive environment of the high-altitude region of the Argentinan Patagonian Andes. The two cores show distinct signals of changes in autochthonous productivity and terrigenous input into the lake from ash fallout as well as from river load and shore erosion. Multiproxy records of the sediments indicate whether these changes can be related to volcanic activity. High values of magnetic susceptibility in the cores reflect periods of basaltic ash fallouts during eruptions of the nearby Copahue Volcano. The southern basin is located in the prevalent direction of ash fallouts and has been affected by these volcanic inputs more intensely than the northern basin of the lake. In contrast, sedimentation and authochthonous productivity in the northern basin are strongly affected by fluvial inputs such as suspended river load and acidic stream waters.

  12. Growing Atmospheric Pollution and Its Relation with Occurrences of Natural Hazards in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ramesh

    In the last three decades, multi satellite remote sensing data have revealed increasing atmospheric pollution. The satellite data have shown spatial distribution of fine and coarse atmospheric particles which impact human health, cloud albedo and atmospheric and meteorological parameters. The long range dusts coming over India travel through Arabian Sea and reach to the Bay of Bengal, such long range transport of dust influences atmospheric and ocean parameters, as a result strong coupling exists between land-ocean-atmosphere. Various kind of natural hazards, such as cyclone, algal bloom, cloud burst, excessive rainfall have been observed apart from the intense fog, haze and smog during winter and post monsoon seasons that have serious impacts on human health of people living in the Indo-Gangetic basin. The long range transport of dust and local anthropogenic emissions also reach to the Himalayan region affecting snow and glaciers of Himalaya and accelerating melting of snow and glaciers which is a threat of flooding of rivers originate from Himalayan region.

  13. Multi-hazard approaches to civil infrastructure engineering

    CERN Document Server

    LaFave, James

    2016-01-01

    This collection focuses on the development of novel approaches to address one of the most pressing challenges of civil engineering, namely the mitigation of natural hazards. Numerous engineering books to date have focused on, and illustrate considerable progress toward, mitigation of individual hazards (earthquakes, wind, and so forth.). The current volume addresses concerns related to overall safety, sustainability and resilience of the built environment when subject to multiple hazards: natural disaster events that are concurrent and either correlated (e.g., wind and surge); uncorrelated (e.g., earthquake and flood); cascading (e.g., fire following earthquake); or uncorrelated and occurring at different times (e.g., wind and earthquake). The authors examine a range of specific topics including methodologies for vulnerability assessment of structures, new techniques to reduce the system demands through control systems; instrumentation, monitoring and condition assessment of structures and foundations; new te...

  14. Cloudy with a Chance of Solar Flares: The Sun as a Natural Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellish, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    Space weather is a naturally occurring phenomenon that represents a quantifiable risk to space- and ground-based infrastructure as well as society at large. Space weather hazards include permanent and correctable faults in computer systems, Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-frequency communication disturbances, increased airline passenger and astronaut radiation exposure, and electric grid disruption. From the National Space Weather Strategy, published by the Office of Science and Technology Policy in October 2015, space weather refers to the dynamic conditions of the space environment that arise from emissions from the Sun, which include solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections. These emissions can interact with Earth and its surrounding space, including the Earth's magnetic field, potentially disrupting technologies and infrastructures. Space weather is measured using a range of space- and ground-based platforms that directly monitor the Sun, the Earth's magnetic field, the conditions in interplanetary space and impacts at Earth's surface, like neutron ground-level enhancement. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Research Center and their international collaborators in government, industry, and academia are working towards improved techniques for predicting space weather as part of the strategy and action plan to better quantify and mitigate space weather hazards. In addition to accurately measuring and predicting space weather, we also need to continue developing more advanced techniques for evaluating space weather impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructure. Within the Earth's atmosphere, elevated neutron flux driven by atmosphere-particle interactions from space weather is a primary risk source. Ground-based neutron sources form an essential foundation for quantifying space weather impacts in a variety of systems.

  15. Hazard index for underground toxic material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.; Cohen, J.J.; McKone, T.E.

    1980-06-01

    To adequately define the problem of waste management, quantitative measures of hazard must be used. This study reviews past work in the area of hazard indices and proposes a geotoxicity hazard index for use in characterizing the hazard of toxic material buried underground. Factors included in this index are: an intrinsic toxicity factor, formulated as the volume of water required for dilution to public drinking-water levels; a persistence factor to characterize the longevity of the material, ranging from unity for stable materials to smaller values for shorter-lived materials; an availability factor that relates the transport potential for the particular material to a reference value for its naturally occurring analog; and a correction factor to accommodate the buildup of decay progeny, resulting in increased toxicity

  16. Hazard index for underground toxic material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, C.F.; Cohen, J.J.; McKone, T.E.

    1980-06-01

    To adequately define the problem of waste management, quantitative measures of hazard must be used. This study reviews past work in the area of hazard indices and proposes a geotoxicity hazard index for use in characterizing the hazard of toxic material buried underground. Factors included in this index are: an intrinsic toxicity factor, formulated as the volume of water required for dilution to public drinking-water levels; a persistence factor to characterize the longevity of the material, ranging from unity for stable materials to smaller values for shorter-lived materials; an availability factor that relates the transport potential for the particular material to a reference value for its naturally occurring analog; and a correction factor to accommodate the buildup of decay progeny, resulting in increased toxicity.

  17. Rainfall-triggered landslides, anthropogenic hazards, and mitigation strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Larsen

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-triggered landslides are part of a natural process of hillslope erosion that can result in catastrophic loss of life and extensive property damage in mountainous, densely populated areas. As global population expansion on or near steep hillslopes continues, the human and economic costs associated with landslides will increase. Landslide hazard mitigation strategies generally involve hazard assessment mapping, warning systems, control structures, and regional landslide planning and policy development. To be sustainable, hazard mitigation requires that management of natural resources is closely connected to local economic and social interests. A successful strategy is dependent on a combination of multi-disciplinary scientific and engineering approaches, and the political will to take action at the local community to national scale.

  18. Landslide Hazard Assessment In Mountaneous Area of Uzbekistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyazov, R. A.; Nurtaev, B. S.

    Because of the growth of population and caretaking of the flat areas under agricul- ture, mountain areas have been intensively mastered, producing increase of natural and technogenic processes in Uzbekistan last years. The landslides are the most dan- gerous phenomena and 7240 of them happened during last 40 years. More than 50 % has taken place in the term of 1991 - 2000 years. The situation is aggravated be- cause these regions are situated in zones, where disastrous earthquakes with M> 7 occurred in past and are expected in the future. Continuing seismic gap in Uzbek- istan during last 15-20 years and last disastrous earthquakes occurred in Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, Greece, Taiwan and India worry us. On the basis of long-term observa- tions the criteria of landslide hazard assessment (suddenness, displacement interval, straight-line directivity, kind of residential buildings destruction) are proposed. This methodology was developed on two geographic levels: local (town scale) and regional (region scale). Detailed risk analysis performed on a local scale and extrapolated to the regional scale. Engineering-geologic parameters content of hazard estimation of landslides and mud flows also is divided into regional and local levels. Four degrees of danger of sliding processes are distinguished for compiling of small-scale, medium- and large-scale maps. Angren industrial area in Tien-Shan mountain is characterized by initial seismic intensity of 8-9 (MSC scale). Here the human technological activity (open-cast mining) has initiated the forming of the large landslide that covers more- over 8 square kilometers and corresponds to a volume of 800 billion cubic meters. In turn the landslide influence can become the source of industrial emergencies. On an example of Angren industrial mining region, the different scenarios on safety control of residing of the people and motion of transport, regulating technologies definition of field improvement and exploitation of mountain

  19. Developing strategies to reduce the risk of hazardous materials transportation in iran using the method of fuzzy SWOT analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Kheirkhah

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available An increase in hazardous materials transportation in Iran along with the industrial development and increase of resulted deadly accidents necessitate the development and implementation of some strategies to reduce these incidents. SWOT analysis is an efficient method for developing strategies, however, its structural problems, including a lack of prioritizing internal and external factors and inability to consider two sided factors reducing its performance in the situations where the number of internal and external factors affecting the risk of hazardous materials is relatively high and some factors are two sided in nature are presented in the article. Fuzzy SWOT analysis is a method the use of which helps with solving these problems and is the issue of employing an effective methodology. Also, the article compares the resulted strategies of the fuzzy method with the strategies developed following SWOT in order to show the relative supremacy of the new method.

  20. Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanisch, Jörg

    A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

  1. Regulation and Control of Hazardous Wastes

    OpenAIRE

    Hans W. Gottinger

    1994-01-01

    Hazardous waste regulations require disposal in approved dumpsites, where environmental consequences are minimal but entry may be privately very costly. Imperfect policing of regulations makes the socially more costly option illicit disposal preferable form the perspective of the private decision maker. The existence of the waste disposal decision, its economic nature, production independence, and the control over environmental damage are key issues in the economics of hazardous waste managem...

  2. NHERI: Advancing the Research Infrastructure of the Multi-Hazard Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blain, C. A.; Ramirez, J. A.; Bobet, A.; Browning, J.; Edge, B.; Holmes, W.; Johnson, D.; Robertson, I.; Smith, T.; Zuo, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI), supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), is a distributed, multi-user national facility that provides the natural hazards research community with access to an advanced research infrastructure. Components of NHERI are comprised of a Network Coordination Office (NCO), a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure (DesignSafe-CI), a computational modeling and simulation center (SimCenter), and eight Experimental Facilities (EFs), including a post-disaster, rapid response research facility (RAPID). Utimately NHERI enables researchers to explore and test ground-breaking concepts to protect homes, businesses and infrastructure lifelines from earthquakes, windstorms, tsunamis, and surge enabling innovations to help prevent natural hazards from becoming societal disasters. When coupled with education and community outreach, NHERI will facilitate research and educational advances that contribute knowledge and innovation toward improving the resiliency of the nation's civil infrastructure to withstand natural hazards. The unique capabilities and coordinating activities over Year 1 between NHERI's DesignSafe-CI, the SimCenter, and individual EFs will be presented. Basic descriptions of each component are also found at https://www.designsafe-ci.org/facilities/. Additionally to be discussed are the various roles of the NCO in leading development of a 5-year multi-hazard science plan, coordinating facility scheduling and fostering the sharing of technical knowledge and best practices, leading education and outreach programs such as the recent Summer Institute and multi-facility REU program, ensuring a platform for technology transfer to practicing engineers, and developing strategic national and international partnerships to support a diverse multi-hazard research and user community.

  3. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  4. Hazardous substances shipping at inland water harbors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benkovic, Z.

    2009-01-01

    Safety measures and regulations system covering the aspects of fire protection, professional and ecological safety are aimed to create a safe working environment, by detection and remedy of conditions that are potentially hazardous for the well-being of the employees or are leading to certain undesired events. Such unwanted incidents may result in different consequences: operating person's injury, environment pollution or material damage. This study attempts to illustrate the organization of work during hazardous matter loading and unloading at inland water harbors, based on legal provisions and decrees involving safety precautions, and in order to achieve constant enhancement of operating procedure, decreasing thereby the number of work-related injuries and various accidental situations. Fundamental precondition required to prevent possible accidents and to optimize general safety policy is to recognize and control any danger or potential