Internet use in radiology: results of a nationwide survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vorbeck, F; Zimmermann, C; Vorbeck-Meister, I; Kainberger, F; Imhof, H

1999-08-01

Purpose: To determine the number of radiologists who currently have Internet access, their use patterns on the Internet for Radiology purposes, the web sites they would recommend, and the potential site access to the Internet that they would like to see in the future. In addition, this study analyzed the best way to find nationwide radiological sites and their content. Materials and Methods: In a nationwide survey, 854 Austrian radiologist were asked to fill out and return a questionnaire about Internet access, current problems, current and future use, which web site they recommend, and about the use of e-mail. Next, the available nationwide radiological sites were searched with seven major search engines using 37 different keywords, as well as by category search, and by searching for links on the homepages of the radiological departments of all Universities of Austria. Then, the offered information of the founded pages was classified in categories. Results: Of the 210 (24.6%) radiologists who returned the questionnaire, 154 (73%) had Internet access. Time expenditure was considered the main problem using the Internet. The Internet was used for literature research by 69% of the radiologists with Internet access, for e-mail by 60%, and for congress information by 57%. In future, 43% would like to read electronic journals more often and 39% would like to use the web more intensively for scientific congresses. At the present time, we found 17 radiological web sites in Austria. The most promising way to find these sites was to use the search engines Alta Vista and Hotbot. Fifteen (88%) sites offered information for patients, seven (41%) for radiologists, five (29%) for students, and four (24%) for researchers. Summary: Many radiologists in Austria already have Internet access, although time expenditure was considered the main problem with Internet use. Survey responses showed a need for electronic journals. To our point of view, Universities and radiological societies

Internet use in radiology: results of a nationwide survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vorbeck, F.; Zimmermann, C.; Vorbeck-Meister, I.; Kainberger, F.; Imhof, H.

1999-01-01

Purpose: To determine the number of radiologists who currently have Internet access, their use patterns on the Internet for Radiology purposes, the web sites they would recommend, and the potential site access to the Internet that they would like to see in the future. In addition, this study analyzed the best way to find nationwide radiological sites and their content. Materials and Methods: In a nationwide survey, 854 Austrian radiologist were asked to fill out and return a questionnaire about Internet access, current problems, current and future use, which web site they recommend, and about the use of e-mail. Next, the available nationwide radiological sites were searched with seven major search engines using 37 different keywords, as well as by category search, and by searching for links on the homepages of the radiological departments of all Universities of Austria. Then, the offered information of the founded pages was classified in categories. Results: Of the 210 (24.6%) radiologists who returned the questionnaire, 154 (73%) had Internet access. Time expenditure was considered the main problem using the Internet. The Internet was used for literature research by 69% of the radiologists with Internet access, for e-mail by 60%, and for congress information by 57%. In future, 43% would like to read electronic journals more often and 39% would like to use the web more intensively for scientific congresses. At the present time, we found 17 radiological web sites in Austria. The most promising way to find these sites was to use the search engines Alta Vista and Hotbot. Fifteen (88%) sites offered information for patients, seven (41%) for radiologists, five (29%) for students, and four (24%) for researchers. Summary: Many radiologists in Austria already have Internet access, although time expenditure was considered the main problem with Internet use. Survey responses showed a need for electronic journals. To our point of view, Universities and radiological societies

Methods of the National Nutrition Survey 1999 Metodología de la Encuesta Nacional de Nutrición 1999

OpenAIRE

Elsa Resano-Pérez; Ignacio Méndez-Ramírez; Teresa Shamah-Levy; Juan A Rivera; Jaime Sepúlveda-Amor

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To describe the methods and analyses of the 1999 National Nutrition Survey (NNS-99). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The 1999 National Nutrition Survey (NNS-99) is a probabilistic survey with nationwide representativity. The NNS-99 included four regions and urban and rural areas of Mexico. The last sampling units were households, selected through stratified cluster sampling. The study population consisted of children under five years of age, school-age children (6-11 years), and women of chi...

Psychologists involved in cancer palliative care in Japan: A nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakajima, Kasumi; Iwamitsu, Yumi; Matsubara, Mei; Oba, Akira; Hirai, Kei; Morita, Tatsuya; Kizawa, Yoshiyuki

2015-04-01

The aim of this study was to clarify, using a nationwide survey, what is perceived as necessary knowledge and skills for psychologists involved in cancer palliative care in Japan, the expectations of medical staff members, and the degree to which these expectations are met. We conducted a questionnaire survey of psychologists involved in cancer palliative care. A total of 419 psychologists from 403 facilities were asked to fill out the questionnaire and return it anonymously. Some 401 psychologists (89 males, 310 females, and 2 unspecified; mean age, 37.2 ± 9.5 years) responded about necessary knowledge and skills for psychologists working in cancer palliative care, the necessity for training, expectations at their current workplace, and the degree to which expectations are met. More than 90% of participants responded that many kinds of knowledge and skills related to the field of cancer palliative care are necessary. Over 80% of participants indicated a necessity for training related to these knowledge and skills. Although more than 50% (range, 50.1-85.8%) of participants responded that such services as "cooperation with medical staff within a hospital," "handling patients for whom psychological support would be beneficial," and "assessment of patients' mental state" were expected at their workplace, fewer than 60% (31.4-56.9%) responded that they actually performed these roles. Our results show that many psychologists in cancer palliative care feel unable to respond to the expectations at their current workplace and that they require more adequate knowledge and skills related to cancer palliative care to work effectively. No other nationwide surveys have generated this type of information in Japan, so we believe that the results of our study are uniquely important.

Current Cytology Practices in Korea: A Nationwide Survey by the Korean Society for Cytopathology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eun Ji Oh

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background Limited data are available on the current status of cytology practices in Korea. This nationwide study presents Korean cytology statistics from 2015. Methods A nationwide survey was conducted in 2016 as a part of the mandatory quality-control program by the Korean Society for Cytopathology. The questionnaire was sent to 208 medical institutions performing cytopathologic examinations in Korea. Individual institutions were asked to submit their annual cytology statistical reports and gynecologic cytology-histology correlation data for 2015. Results Responses were obtained from 206 medical institutions including 83 university hospitals, 87 general hospitals, and 36 commercial laboratories. A total of 8,284,952 cytologic examinations were performed in 2015, primarily in commercial laboratories (74.9%. The most common cytology specimens were gynecologic samples (81.3%. Conventional smears and liquid-based cytology were performed in 6,190,526 (74.7% and 2,094,426 (25.3% cases, respectively. The overall diagnostic concordance rate between cytologic and histologic diagnoses of uterine cervical samples was 70.5%. Discordant cases were classified into three categories: category A (minimal clinical impact, 17.4%, category B (moderate clinical impact, 10.2%, and category C (major clinical impact, 1.9%. The ratio of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance to squamous intraepithelial lesion was 1.6 in university hospitals, 2.9 in general hospitals, and 4.9 in commercial laboratories. Conclusions This survey reveals the current status and trend of cytology practices in Korea. The results of this study can serve as basic data for the establishment of nationwide cytopathology policies and quality improvement guidelines in Korean medical institutions.

Institutional racism in public health contracting: Findings of a nationwide survey from New Zealand.

Science.gov (United States)

Came, H; Doole, C; McKenna, B; McCreanor, T

2018-02-01

Public institutions within New Zealand have long been accused of mono-culturalism and institutional racism. This study sought to identify inconsistencies and bias by comparing government funded contracting processes for Māori public health providers (n = 60) with those of generic providers (n = 90). Qualitative and quantitative data were collected (November 2014-May 2015), through a nationwide telephone survey of public health providers, achieving a 75% response rate. Descriptive statistical analyses were applied to quantitative responses and an inductive approach was taken to analyse data from open-ended responses in the survey domains of relationships with portfolio contract managers, contracting and funding. The quantitative data showed four sites of statistically significant variation: length of contracts, intensity of monitoring, compliance costs and frequency of auditing. Non-significant data involved access to discretionary funding and cost of living adjustments, the frequency of monitoring, access to Crown (government) funders and representation on advisory groups. The qualitative material showed disparate provider experiences, dependent on individual portfolio managers, with nuanced differences between generic and Māori providers' experiences. This study showed that monitoring government performance through a nationwide survey was an innovative way to identify sites of institutional racism. In a policy context where health equity is a key directive to the health sector, this study suggests there is scope for New Zealand health funders to improve their contracting practices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nationwide survey of cobalt-60 teletherapy. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, D.L.; Kearly, F.E.; Wyckoff, H.O.; Gitlin, J.N.; Reffit, E.B.; Shangold, E.J.

1980-08-01

The Bureau of Radiological Health and the National Bureau of Standards conducted a nationwide survey of cobalt-60 teletherapy facilities to determine their accuracy in delivery of a prescribed dose to a phantom. Participation was obtained from 684 respondents or 75 percent of US facilities. For each cobalt-60 unit the average dose recorded on five dosimeters was within 5 percent of the prescribed value for 83 percent of the respondents and only exceeded a 10 percent difference for 3 percent of the respondents. Sufficient information for reconstruction of dose calculations was available for 87 percent of the participating facilities. Of these reconstructed calculations, 56 percent were within 1 percent of the prescribed dose of 300 rads. The analysis of data from the survey showed that better performance were related to a number of factors. Among these were expressing the machine calibration in terms of dose rate, performing the machine calibration on an annual basis, and correcting for source decay on a monthly basis. Larger facilities achieved better results than smaller facilities when calculating the absorbed dose rate. Also, each 4 machine characteristics (isocentric mounting, short exposure time, high normalized output, and long treatment distance) were related to better performance with regard to both dosimeter readings and calculated doses. Larger facilities were more likely to be using a cobalt-60 unit having those characteristics

Nationwide Survey of Work Environment, Work-Life Balance and Burnout among Psychiatrists in Japan

OpenAIRE

Umene-Nakano, Wakako; Kato, Takahiro A.; Kikuchi, Saya; Tateno, Masaru; Fujisawa, Daisuke; Hoshuyama, Tsutomu; Nakamura, Jun

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Psychiatry has been consistently shown to be a profession characterised by 'high-burnout'; however, no nationwide surveys on this topic have been conducted in Japan. AIMS: The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of burnout and to ascertain the relationship between work environment satisfaction, work-life balance satisfaction and burnout among psychiatrists working in medical schools in Japan. METHOD: We mailed anonymous questionnaires to all 80 psychiatry depart...

A nationwide population-based cross-sectional survey of health-related quality of life in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms in Denmark (MPNhealthSurvey: survey design and characteristics of respondents and nonrespondents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brochmann N

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Nana Brochmann,1 Esben Meulengracht Flachs,2 Anne Illemann Christensen,3 Christen Lykkegaard Andersen,1 Knud Juel,3 Hans Carl Hasselbalch,1 Ann-Dorthe Zwisler4 1Department of Hematology, Zealand University Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Roskilde, 2Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Bispebjerg University Hospital, Copenhagen, 3National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Copenhagen, 4Danish Knowledge Centre for Rehabilitation and Palliative Care, University of Southern Denmark and Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark Objective: The Department of Hematology, Zealand University Hospital, Denmark, and the National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, created the first nationwide, population-based, and the most comprehensive cross-sectional health-related quality of life (HRQoL survey of patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs. In Denmark, all MPN patients are treated in public hospitals and treatments received are free of charge for these patients. Therefore, MPN patients receive the best available treatment to the extent of its suitability for them and if they wish to receive the treatment. The aims of this article are to describe the survey design and the characteristics of respondents and nonrespondents. Material and methods: Individuals with MPN diagnoses registered in the Danish National Patient Register (NPR were invited to participate. The registers of the Danish Civil Registration System and Statistics Denmark provided information regarding demographics. The survey contained 120 questions: validated patient-reported outcome (PRO questionnaires and additional questions addressing lifestyle. Results: A total of 4,704 individuals were registered with MPN diagnoses in the NPR of whom 4,236 were eligible for participation and 2,613 (62% responded. Overall, the respondents covered the broad spectrum of MPN patients, but patients 70–79 years old, living with

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system components (PSAM). Volume 3: Literature surveys and technical reports

Science.gov (United States)

1992-01-01

The technical effort and computer code developed during the first year are summarized. Several formulations for Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis (PFEA) are described with emphasis on the selected formulation. The strategies being implemented in the first-version computer code to perform linear, elastic PFEA is described. The results of a series of select Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) component surveys are presented. These results identify the critical components and provide the information necessary for probabilistic structural analysis.

Public attitudes toward practice by medical students: a nationwide survey in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Murata, Kyoko; Sakuma, Mio; Seki, Susumu; Morimoto, Takeshi

2014-01-01

It is essential for medical students to interact directly with patients. However, patients may be reluctant to be seen by medical students in settings in which they may also be seen by senior staff. To understand patients' attitudes toward practice by medical students and consider the factors involved in obtaining patients' cooperation, we conducted a nationwide cross-sectional survey. We randomly selected 2,400 adult participants from all over Japan. Trained research assistants inquired about participants' experiences and attitudes toward practice by medical students using a questionnaire. We compared differences in attitudes between participants who were accepting of practice by medical students and those who were not, as well as differences between participants who had experienced practice by a medical student versus those who had not. A total of 1,109 (46%) participants were included in the study. Eleven percent (117/1109) of the participants had experienced practice by a medical student. One fourth of participants were accepting of practice by medical students, and experienced participants were significantly more likely to be accepting of practice by medical students than inexperienced participants (45% vs. 24%, ppractice by medical students among accepting participants with previous experiences included "polite," "kind," and "hard-working." Fifty-nine percent (637/1088) of participants indicated that they would request a senior staff member's supervision when being seen by a medical student. The present nationwide survey suggests that education emphasizing bedside manner may be effective in promoting patients' cooperation of medical students. In addition, providing information to patients about medical students and efforts to increase supervision during clinical clerkship should be emphasized to foster the public's cooperation.

A survey of dynamic methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aldemir, Tunc

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Dynamic methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are surveyed. ► These methodologies overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA. ► They are suitable for PSA using a best estimate plus uncertainty approach. ► They are highly computation intensive and produce very large number of scenarios. ► Use of scenario clustering can assist the analysis of the results. -- Abstract: Dynamic methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are defined as those which use a time-dependent phenomenological model of system evolution along with its stochastic behavior to account for possible dependencies between failure events. Over the past 30 years, numerous concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modeling approaches such as the event-tree/fault-tree methodology to adequately account for the impact of process/hardware/software/firmware/human interactions on the stochastic system behavior. A survey of the types of dynamic PSA methodologies proposed to date is presented, as well as a brief summary of an example application for the PSA modeling of a digital feedwater control system of an operating pressurized water reactor. The use of dynamic methodologies for PSA modeling of passive components and phenomenological uncertainties are also discussed.

Endoscopic training: A nationwide survey of French fellows in gastroenterology.

Science.gov (United States)

Amiot, Aurélien; Conroy, Guillaume; Le Baleur, Yann; Winkler, Jérôme; Palazzo, Maxime; Treton, Xavier

2018-04-01

During their 4 years of training, French fellows in gastroenterology should acquire theoretical and practical competency in gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy. To evaluate the delivery of endoscopy training to French GI fellows and perception of learning. A nationwide electronic survey was carried out of French GI fellows using an anonymous, 17-item electronic questionnaire. A total of 291 out of 484 (60%) GI fellows responded to the survey. Only 40% of subjects had access to theoretical training and/or virtual simulators. Only 49% and 35% of fourth year fellows had reached the threshold numbers of EGD and colonoscopies recommended by the European section and Board of gastroenterology and hepatology. Sixty-two percent and 57% of trainees reported having insufficient knowledge in interpreting gastric and colic lesions. Access to dedicated endoscopy activity for at least 8 weeks during the year was the only independent factor associated with the achievement of the recommended annual threshold number of procedures. The access of fellows to theoretical training and to preclinical virtual simulators is still insufficient. Personalized support and regular assessment of cognitive and technical acquisition over the 4 years of training seems to be necessary. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A nationwide survey concerning practices in pessary use for pelvic organ prolapse in The Netherlands : identifying needs for further research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velzel, Joost; Roovers, Jan Paul; van der Vaart, C. H.; Broekman, Bart; Vollebregt, Astrid; Hakvoort, Robert

2015-01-01

Introduction and hypothesis: To identify practice variation in management of patients with a vaginal pessary for pelvic organ prolapse (POP). Methods: A nationwide survey was sent to all Dutch gynecologists with a special interest in urogynecology. Results: The response rate was 59 %. Of the

A nationwide survey concerning practices in pessary use for pelvic organ prolapse in The Netherlands: identifying needs for further research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Velzel (Joost); J.P. Roovers (Jan Paul); C.H. Van der Vaart; B.M.W. Broekman (Bart); A. Vollebregt (Astrid); R. Hakvoort (Robert)

2015-01-01

textabstractIntroduction and hypothesis: To identify practice variation in management of patients with a vaginal pessary for pelvic organ prolapse (POP). Methods: A nationwide survey was sent to all Dutch gynecologists with a special interest in urogynecology. Results: The response rate was 59 %. Of

The present state of nuclear medicine practice in Japan. A report of the 6th nationwide survey in 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koizumi, Kiyoshi; Kuwabara, Yasuo; Ushijima, Yo

2008-01-01

The Subcommittee of Japan Radioisotope Association on Survey of Nuclear Medicine Practice in Japan has performed a nationwide survey every five years since 1982. The 6th survey was performed in June 2007. The estimated total annual number of examinations was 1.41 million, 11.5% less than the previous survey (2002). The scintigraphy most frequently performed was bone (38%), followed by myocardium and brain perfusion scintigraphy. 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) dramatically increased. 131 I therapy for thyroid cancer and hyperthyroidism has been also increasing steadily, while the number of in vitro radioassays has been decreasing continuously since 1992. (author)

CONSTRUCTION OF A CALIBRATED PROBABILISTIC CLASSIFICATION CATALOG: APPLICATION TO 50k VARIABLE SOURCES IN THE ALL-SKY AUTOMATED SURVEY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Brink, Henrik; Crellin-Quick, Arien; Butler, Nathaniel R.

2012-01-01

With growing data volumes from synoptic surveys, astronomers necessarily must become more abstracted from the discovery and introspection processes. Given the scarcity of follow-up resources, there is a particularly sharp onus on the frameworks that replace these human roles to provide accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic classification catalogs. Such catalogs inform the subsequent follow-up, allowing consumers to optimize the selection of specific sources for further study and permitting rigorous treatment of classification purities and efficiencies for population studies. Here, we describe a process to produce a probabilistic classification catalog of variability with machine learning from a multi-epoch photometric survey. In addition to producing accurate classifications, we show how to estimate calibrated class probabilities and motivate the importance of probability calibration. We also introduce a methodology for feature-based anomaly detection, which allows discovery of objects in the survey that do not fit within the predefined class taxonomy. Finally, we apply these methods to sources observed by the All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS), and release the Machine-learned ASAS Classification Catalog (MACC), a 28 class probabilistic classification catalog of 50,124 ASAS sources in the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars. We estimate that MACC achieves a sub-20% classification error rate and demonstrate that the class posterior probabilities are reasonably calibrated. MACC classifications compare favorably to the classifications of several previous domain-specific ASAS papers and to the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, which had classified only 24% of those sources into one of 12 science classes.

CONSTRUCTION OF A CALIBRATED PROBABILISTIC CLASSIFICATION CATALOG: APPLICATION TO 50k VARIABLE SOURCES IN THE ALL-SKY AUTOMATED SURVEY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Brink, Henrik; Crellin-Quick, Arien [Astronomy Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3411 (United States); Butler, Nathaniel R., E-mail: jwrichar@stat.berkeley.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States)

2012-12-15

With growing data volumes from synoptic surveys, astronomers necessarily must become more abstracted from the discovery and introspection processes. Given the scarcity of follow-up resources, there is a particularly sharp onus on the frameworks that replace these human roles to provide accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic classification catalogs. Such catalogs inform the subsequent follow-up, allowing consumers to optimize the selection of specific sources for further study and permitting rigorous treatment of classification purities and efficiencies for population studies. Here, we describe a process to produce a probabilistic classification catalog of variability with machine learning from a multi-epoch photometric survey. In addition to producing accurate classifications, we show how to estimate calibrated class probabilities and motivate the importance of probability calibration. We also introduce a methodology for feature-based anomaly detection, which allows discovery of objects in the survey that do not fit within the predefined class taxonomy. Finally, we apply these methods to sources observed by the All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS), and release the Machine-learned ASAS Classification Catalog (MACC), a 28 class probabilistic classification catalog of 50,124 ASAS sources in the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars. We estimate that MACC achieves a sub-20% classification error rate and demonstrate that the class posterior probabilities are reasonably calibrated. MACC classifications compare favorably to the classifications of several previous domain-specific ASAS papers and to the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, which had classified only 24% of those sources into one of 12 science classes.

Nationwide rural well water survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korkka-Niemi, K.; Sipilae, A.; Hatva, T.; Hiisvirta, L.; Lahti, K.; Alfthan, G.

1993-01-01

The quality of water in 1 421 drinking-water wells was monitored in a nationwide well water study. Samples were taken once from all wells, and during three seasons from 421 wells. The wells were selected in such a way that me sample would be as representative as possible of the quality of the drinking-water in households' own wells in rural areas. The study comprised general water quality parameters, influence of sampling season, and factors related to the type, the condition and the pollution of the wells. In part of the well waters selenium, radioactivity and pesticides were determined. The effect of plumbing materials on the quality of water was also examined. (33 refs., 148 figs., 71 tabs.)

Prevalence of anemia in children 1 to 12 years of age: results from a nationwide probabilistic survey in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Villalpando Salvador

2003-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology and analyze factors associated with iron deficiency anemia in a probabilistic sample of the Encuesta Nacional de Nutrición 1999 (ENN-99 [National Nutritional Survey 1999 (NNS-99]. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The sample included 8 111 children aged 1 to 12 years, and was nationaly representative by rural and urban strata and by four geographical regions. Capillary hemoglobin was measured using a portable photometer (HemoCue. The analysis of the determining factors of anemia was performed by odds ratios derived from a logistic regression model and multiple regression models. RESULTS: The prevalence of anemia was 50% in infants <2 years of age, with no significant differences between urban and rural strata or among regions. It varied between 14 and 22% in 6-11 year-old children and was higher in the South region and among the indigenous children. Dietary intake of iron was 50% of the recommended daily allowance in children <2 years of age, but not in older children. Phytate (»500-800 mg/d and tannin (»19 mg/d intakes were very high in children over 7 years of age. Hemoglobin was positively associated with nutritional status of children (p=0.01, socioeconomic status (p range 0.05-0.001, duration of lactation in children under 2 years of age (p=0.1, and iron and calcium intake (p=0.02, but not with folic acid or vitamin B12 intake. Hemoglobin was negatively associated with maternal education (p=0.01 in older children, but not in those under 2 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: We present evidence of an alarming national epidemic of anemia, particularly marked in children 12 to 24 months of age. The control of anemia should be considered as an urgent national concern given its grave consequences on the physical and mental development of these children and on their long-term health.

A nationwide survey concerning practices in pessary use for pelvic organ prolapse in The Netherlands: identifying needs for further research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velzel, Joost; Roovers, Jan Paul; van der Vaart, C. H.; Broekman, Bart; Vollebregt, Astrid; Hakvoort, Robert

2015-01-01

To identify practice variation in management of patients with a vaginal pessary for pelvic organ prolapse (POP). A nationwide survey was sent to all Dutch gynecologists with a special interest in urogynecology. The response rate was 59 %. Of the respondents, 13 % had a written protocol for pessary

Insight from Public Surveys Related to Siting of Nuclear Waste Facilities: An Overview of Findings from a 2015 Nationwide Survey of US Residents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jenkins-Smith, Hank C. [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Gupta, Kuhika [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Silva, Carol L. [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Bonano, Evaristo J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rechard, Robert P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-09-01

The results described in this report are an analysis of nationwide surveys, administered between 2006 and 2015, which measure preferences of US residents concerning the environment and energy sources. The Energy & Environment (EE) survey series is conducted annually by the Center for Energy, Security & Society (CES&S), a joint research collaboration of the University of Oklahoma and Sandia National Laboratories. The annual EE survey series is designed to track evolving public views on nuclear materials management in the US. The 2015 wave of the Energy and Environment survey (EE15) was implemented using a web-based questionnaire, and was completed by 2,021 respondents using an Internet sample that matches the characteristics of the adult US population as estimated in the US Census. A special focus of the EE15 survey is how survey respondents understand and evaluate “consent” in the context of the storage and transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). This report presents an overview of key results from analyses of questions related to consent-based siting and other elements of the nuclear energy fuel cycle.

Perceptions of the Inpatient Training Experience: A Nationwide Survey of Gastroenterology Program Directors and Fellows.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Navin L; Perencevich, Molly L; Trier, Jerry S

2017-10-01

Inpatient training is a key component of gastroenterology (GI) fellowship programs nationwide, yet little is known about perceptions of the inpatient training experience. To compare the content, objectives and quality of the inpatient training experience as perceived by program directors (PD) and fellows in US ACGME-accredited GI fellowship programs. We conducted a nationwide, online-based survey of GI PDs and fellows at the conclusion of the 2016 academic year. We queried participants about (1) the current models of inpatient training, (2) the content, objectives, and quality of the inpatient training experience, and (3) the frequency and quality of educational activities on the inpatient service. We analyzed five-point Likert items and rank assessments as continuous variables by an independent t test and compared proportions using the Chi-square test. Survey response rate was 48.4% (75/155) for PDs and a total of 194 fellows completed the survey, with both groups reporting the general GI consult team (>90%) as the primary model of inpatient training. PDs and fellows agreed on the ranking of all queried responsibilities of the inpatient fellow to develop during the inpatient service. However, fellows indicated that attendings spent less time teaching and provided less formal feedback than that perceived by PDs (p < 0.0001). PDs rated the overall quality of the inpatient training experience (p < 0.0001) and education on the wards (p = 0.0003) as better than overall ratings by fellows. Although GI fellows and PDs agree on the importance of specific fellow responsibilities on the inpatient service, fellows report experiencing less teaching and feedback from attendings than that perceived by PDs. Committing more time to education and assessment may improve fellows' perceptions of the inpatient training experience.

Nationwide survey of Arima syndrome: revised diagnostic criteria from epidemiological analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Itoh, Masayuki; Iwasaki, Yuji; Ohno, Kohsaku; Inoue, Takehiko; Hayashi, Masaharu; Ito, Shuichi; Matsuzaka, Tetsuo; Ide, Shuhei; Arima, Masataka

2014-05-01

We have never known any epidemiological study of Arima syndrome since it was first described in 1971. To investigate the number of Arima syndrome patients and clarify the clinical differences between Arima syndrome and Joubert syndrome, we performed the first nationwide survey of Arima syndrome, and herein report its results. Furthermore, we revised the diagnostic criteria for Arima syndrome. As a primary survey, we sent out self-administered questionnaires to most of the Japanese hospitals with a pediatric clinic, and facilities for persons with severe motor and intellectual disabilities, inquiring as to the number of patients having symptoms of Arima syndrome, including severe psychomotor delay, agenesis or hypoplasia of cerebellar vermis, renal dysfunction, visual dysfunction and with or without ptosis-like appearance. Next, as the second survey, we sent out detailed clinical questionnaires to the institutes having patients with two or more typical symptoms. The response rate of the primary survey was 72.7% of hospitals with pediatric clinic, 63.5% of national hospitals and 66.7% of municipal and private facilities. The number of patients with 5 typical symptoms was 13 and that with 2-4 symptoms was 32. The response rate of the secondary survey was 52% (23 patients). After reviewing clinical features of 23 patients, we identified 7 Arima syndrome patients and 16 Joubert syndrome patients. Progressive renal dysfunction was noticed in all Arima syndrome patients, but in 33% of those with Joubert syndrome. It is sometimes difficult to distinguish Arima syndrome from Joubert syndrome. Some clinicians described a patient with Joubert syndrome and its complications of visual dysfunction and renal dysfunction, whose current diagnosis was Arima syndrome. Thus, the diagnosis of the two syndromes may be confused. Here, we revised the diagnostic criteria for Arima syndrome. Copyright © 2013 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Theory Development

Science.gov (United States)

Burnside, O. H.

1985-01-01

The objective of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project is to develop analysis techniques and computer programs for predicting the probabilistic response of critical structural components for current and future space propulsion systems. This technology will play a central role in establishing system performance and durability. The first year's technical activity is concentrating on probabilistic finite element formulation strategy and code development. Work is also in progress to survey critical materials and space shuttle mian engine components. The probabilistic finite element computer program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) is being developed. The final probabilistic code will have, in the general case, the capability of performing nonlinear dynamic of stochastic structures. It is the goal of the approximate methods effort to increase problem solving efficiency relative to finite element methods by using energy methods to generate trial solutions which satisfy the structural boundary conditions. These approximate methods will be less computer intensive relative to the finite element approach.

Diagnostic delay experienced among gynecological cancer patients: a nationwide survey in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Robinson, Kirstine M; Ottesen, Bent; Christensen, Karl Bang

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine diagnostic delay among gynecological cancer patients. DESIGN: Nationwide study. SETTING: The cohort comprised all women receiving their first treatment for cervical, endometrial, or ovarian cancer between 1 October 2006 and 1 December 2007 in four of the five centers...... for gynecological cancer surgery in Denmark. SAMPLE: Of the 911 women alive, 648 participated, resulting in a response rate of 71.1%; of these, 30.1% were diagnosed with cervical cancer, 31.0% with endometrial cancer, and 38.9% with ovarian cancer. METHODS: Questionnaire survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnostic...... experiencing very long delays. Ovarian cancer patients experienced significantly shorter delays compared with other gynecological cancer patients in all parts of the health care system. CONCLUSIONS: Delays occur in all parts of the diagnostic process, suggesting that a multifaceted approach should be adopted...

Pre-operative fasting: a nationwide survey of German anaesthesia departments.

Science.gov (United States)

Breuer, J-P; Bosse, G; Seifert, S; Prochnow, L; Martin, J; Schleppers, A; Geldner, G; Soreide, E; Spies, C

2010-03-01

Shorter pre-operative fasting improves clinical outcome without an increased risk. Since October 2004, German Anaesthesiology Societies have officially recommended a fast of 2 h for clear fluids and 6 h for solid food before elective surgery. We conducted a nationwide survey to evaluate the current clinical practice in Germany. Between July 2006 and January 2007, standardized questionnaires were mailed to 3751 Anaesthesiology Society members in leading positions requesting anonymous response. The overall response rate was 66% (n=2418). Of those, 2148 (92%) claimed familiarity with the new guidelines. About a third (n=806, 34%) reported full adherence to the new recommendations, whereas 1043 (45%) reported an eased fasting practice. Traditional Nil per os after midnight was still recommended by 157 (7%). Commonest reasons reported for adopting the new guidelines were: 'improved pre-operative comfort' (84%), and 'increased patient satisfaction' (83%); reasons against were: 'low flexibility in operation room management' (19%), and 'increased risk of aspiration' (13%). Despite the apparent understanding of the benefits from reduced pre-operative fasting, full implementation of the guidelines remains poor in German anaesthesiology departments.

Watershed-based survey designs

Science.gov (United States)

Detenbeck, N.E.; Cincotta, D.; Denver, J.M.; Greenlee, S.K.; Olsen, A.R.; Pitchford, A.M.

2005-01-01

Watershed-based sampling design and assessment tools help serve the multiple goals for water quality monitoring required under the Clean Water Act, including assessment of regional conditions to meet Section 305(b), identification of impaired water bodies or watersheds to meet Section 303(d), and development of empirical relationships between causes or sources of impairment and biological responses. Creation of GIS databases for hydrography, hydrologically corrected digital elevation models, and hydrologic derivatives such as watershed boundaries and upstream–downstream topology of subcatchments would provide a consistent seamless nationwide framework for these designs. The elements of a watershed-based sample framework can be represented either as a continuous infinite set defined by points along a linear stream network, or as a discrete set of watershed polygons. Watershed-based designs can be developed with existing probabilistic survey methods, including the use of unequal probability weighting, stratification, and two-stage frames for sampling. Case studies for monitoring of Atlantic Coastal Plain streams, West Virginia wadeable streams, and coastal Oregon streams illustrate three different approaches for selecting sites for watershed-based survey designs.

A nationwide survey of NDMA in raw and drinking water in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Asami, Mari; Oya, Masami; Kosaka, Koji

2009-05-15

A nationwide survey of N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) in both raw and finished water samples from drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) in Japan was conducted. NDMA was analyzed by solid-phase extraction (SPE) followed by ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). NDMA was detected in 15 of 31 raw water samples collected in the summer at concentrations up to 2.6 ng/L, and in 9 of 28 raw water samples collected in winter at concentrations up to 4.3 ng/L. The NDMA concentrations were higher in raw water samples collected from treatment plants with catchment areas that have high population densities. The NDMA concentrations were higher in river water samples collected from the east and west of Japan than in those collected from other areas. NDMA was detected in 10 of 31 finished samples collected in summer at reduced concentrations of up to 2.2 ng/L, while 5 of 28 finished samples collected in winter showed NDMA concentrations up to 10 ng/L. The highest NDMA levels were detected in finished water samples collected from the Yodo River basin DWTP, which uses ozonation. Furthermore, evaluation of the process water produced at six advanced water treatment plants was conducted. Influent from the Yodo River indicated that the NDMA concentration increased during ozonation to as high as 20 ng/L, and then decreased with subsequent biological activated carbon treatment. To our knowledge, this is the first nationwide evaluation of NDMA concentrations in water conducted in Japan to date.

Working and training conditions of residents in pediatric surgery: a nationwide survey in Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Reismann, M; Ellerkamp, V; Dingemann, J

2010-09-01

As in other surgical specialties, increasing concern has been expressed worldwide about the shortage of trainees in pediatric surgery training programs. We performed a nationwide survey to investigate the current situation in Germany. An internet-based nationwide survey comprising 36 questions on training conditions in pediatric surgery was linked to the homepage of the German Society of Pediatric Surgery from June to September 2008. Statements on the following aspects were evaluated by responding residents using a scale from 1 (I do not agree at all) to 5 (I fully agree): workplace, cooperation with colleagues, head of the department, cooperation with other specialties, training and research conditions. A median value of 3 indicated an unsatisfactory assessment, with at least 50% of respondents giving an indifferent or negative response. 70 questionnaires were completed. Some of the evaluations revealed problematic areas. In particular, statements regarding working hours revealed dissatisfaction among the responding doctors. The median value accorded the statement "I am satisfied with the current working time regulation" was 2.9. With regard to departmental heads, some criticisms were directed against a perceived lack of soft skills. According to the respondents, their involvement in decision-making processes was insufficient ("We are involved in decision-making processes affecting our working conditions" - median value 2.4). Residents were also dissatisfied with the feedback they received for their work ("I get enough feedback regarding my achievement" - median value 2.6). Another problem area was career development ("I will finish my specialist training in time" - median value 2.9). However, these points did not affect overall satisfaction. Trainee satisfaction with regulations on working hours is low. Despite a general satisfaction with all fields appraised, improvements in various individual areas, e. g., the attitude of departmental heads and strategies of

Nationwide survey of US integrated 6-year cardiothoracic surgical residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Lebastchi, Amir H; Yuh, David D

2014-08-01

Integrated 6-year cardiothoracic surgical residency programs have recently been implemented in the United States. We report the results of the first published nationwide survey assessing the motivations, satisfaction, and ambitions of integrated 6-year residents. A 63-question web-based survey was distributed to 83 residents enrolled in 21 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited integrated 6-year programs in November 2013. There was an outstanding 69% response rate. The median age of integrated 6-year residents was 29 years with women comprising 24%. A clear majority had faculty mentorship (95%) and significant clinical exposure in medical school. Focused (100%) and abbreviated (74%) training curricula were identified as the top advantages of integrated 6-year programs; the format itself was a significant factor (46%) in career choice. Most integrated 6-year residents (95%) were satisfied with their program; 80.7% were satisfied with their operative experience thus far. Career plans skewed toward adult cardiac surgery (67%), followed by pediatric cardiac (24%) and general thoracic (9%) surgery; 49% were not particularly concerned about future employment, with 65% foreseeing an increase in opportunities. Specialized training (eg, aortic, heart failure, minimally invasive, congenital) was anticipated by 77%. Most integrated 6-year residents envision an academic career (94.7%). This survey takes an important snapshot of the nascent integrated 6-year format. Mentorship and intense clinical exposure are critical in attracting applicants. Purported advantages of the format are holding true among integrated 6-year residents, with the majority satisfied with their programs. These early data indicate that this format holds significant promise in attracting and retaining highly qualified trainees to academic cardiothoracic surgery. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system components (PSAM). Volume 2: Literature surveys of critical Space Shuttle main engine components

Science.gov (United States)

Rajagopal, K. R.

1992-01-01

The technical effort and computer code development is summarized. Several formulations for Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis (PFEA) are described with emphasis on the selected formulation. The strategies being implemented in the first-version computer code to perform linear, elastic PFEA is described. The results of a series of select Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) component surveys are presented. These results identify the critical components and provide the information necessary for probabilistic structural analysis. Volume 2 is a summary of critical SSME components.

The present state of nuclear medicine practice in Japan. A report of the 7th nationwide survey in 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuwahara, Yasuo; Kinuya, Seigo; Inoue, Kentaro

2013-01-01

The Subcommittee on Survey of Nuclear Medicine Practice in Japan has performed a nationwide questionnaire surveys every five years since 1982. The latest questionnaire survey was performed in June 2012. The estimated total number of the annual examinations was 1.15 millions, 19% less than that of the last survey in 2007. The scintigraphic examination most frequently performed was bone scintigraphy, followed by myocardial and brain perfusion scintigraphy in order. The number of positron emission tomography (PET) studies and radionuclide targeted therapies increased by 40% and 62%, respectively, as compared to the 2007's survey. The increase was attributable to growing uses of commercially delivered fluorodexyglucose (FDG), and the newly started radionuclide targeted therapy for patients with metastatic bone tumor or malignant lymphoma, in addition to 131 I therapy for patients with thyroid cancer or Graves' disease. The number of in vitro radioassays has been decreasing continuously since 1992. (author)

The use of telemedicine in Italian Blood Banks: a nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Berti, Pierluigi; Verlicchi, Franco; Fiorin, Francesco; Guaschino, Roberto; Cangemi, Adelio

2014-01-01

Telemedicine is defined as the use of electronic information and communication technologies to provide health care between distant people. Many activities in transfusion medicine could benefit from the application of telemedicine. To map the spread of the use of telemedicine in transfusion medicine in Italy, the Italian Society of Transfusion Medicine and Immunohaematology (SIMTI) performed a nationwide survey: the results are presented in this paper. A survey, dealing with different aspects of the use of telemedicine, was performed by sending a questionnaire to 280 Italian Blood Centres. The survey was designed to evaluate the diffusion of telemedicine and the features of the systems, with special attention to the systems' safety and legal adequacy. One section of the questionnaire was designed to identify the features of the systems considered essential by the respondents. Out of 280 Blood Services contacted, 196 (70%) filled in at least one of the questions of the online questionnaire. Globally the use of some form of telemedicine was reported by 70% of the respondents. Telemedicine is used for remote validation of laboratory tests by 32% of the Centres that responded, for remote biological validation of blood units by 34% and for assignment of blood components by 29%. Less frequently, telemedicine is used to control electronic refrigerators, for electronic blood requests and for bed-side identification of patients. The use of telemedicine is widespread in Italian Blood Services. There appears to be some heterogeneity between structures with regards to the evaluation of the systems' safety and their legal adequacy. No telemedicine system should be introduced into practice until it has proven to have the same standards of safety as the corresponding "on site" activity.

Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks

CERN Document Server

Haenni, Rolf; Wheeler, Gregory; Williamson, Jon; Andrews, Jill

2014-01-01

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks presents a groundbreaking framework within which various approaches to probabilistic logic naturally fit. Additionally, the text shows how to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework.

Fifth nationwide survey on radiation oncology of China in 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yin Weibo; Yuyun; Chen Bo; Tian Fenghua

2007-01-01

Objective: In order to find out the present status of Chinese Radiation Oncology, the Chinese Society of Radiation Oncology did the fifth nationwide survey on Radiation Oncology in China. Methods: Questionnaire forms had been sent through the board member of Chinese Society of Radiation Oncology to each center throughout the country. The forms, after filing, were returned for analysis. Results: On September 30th, 2006, there were 952 radiation oncology centers. They possess personnel: 5247 doctors including 2 110 residents, 1181 physicists, 6864 nurses, 4559 technicians and 1141 engineers. For equipment: There were 918 linear accelerators, 472 telecobalt units, 146 deep X-ray machine, 827 simulators, 214 CT simulators, 400 brachytherapy units, 400 treatment planning system, 796 dosimeters, 467 X-knife, 149 γ-knife (74 for head only, 75 for the head and body). Treatment: 35 503 beds (35 centers did not report the number of beds), 42 109 patients treated per day, 409 440 new patients were treated per year (no report from 45 centers). Conclusion: Radiation oncology has been developing rapidly in the last 5 years either in quantity or in quality. They are still being considered insufficient in proportion to our population. Training programs and development of QA and QC system ate needed. (authors)

Burden of Surgical Conditions in Uganda: A Cross-sectional Nationwide Household Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Tu M; Fuller, Anthony T; Butler, Elissa K; Makumbi, Fredrick; Luboga, Samuel; Muhumuza, Christine; Ssennono, Vincent F; Chipman, Jeffrey G; Galukande, Moses; Haglund, Michael M

2017-08-01

To quantify the burden of surgical conditions in Uganda. Data on the burden of disease have long served as a cornerstone to health policymaking, planning, and resource allocation. Population-based data are the gold standard, but no data on surgical burden at a national scale exist; therefore, we adapted the Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Need survey and conducted a nation-wide, cross-sectional survey of Uganda to quantify the burden of surgically treatable conditions. The 2-stage cluster sample included 105 enumeration areas, representing 74 districts and Kampala Capital City Authority. Enumeration occurred from August 20 to September 12, 2014. In each enumeration area, 24 households were randomly selected; the head of the household provided details regarding any household deaths within the previous 12 months. Two household members were randomly selected for a head-to-toe verbal interview to determine existing untreated and treated surgical conditions. In 2315 households, we surveyed 4248 individuals: 461 (10.6%) reported 1 or more conditions requiring at least surgical consultation [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.9%-12.4%]. The most frequent barrier to surgical care was the lack of financial resources for the direct cost of care. Of the 153 household deaths recalled, 53 deaths (34.2%; 95% CI 22.1%-46.3%) were associated with surgically treatable signs/symptoms. Shortage of time was the most frequently cited reason (25.8%) among the 11.6% household deaths that should have, but did not, receive surgical care (95% CI 6.4%-16.8%). Unmet surgical need is prevalent in Uganda. There is an urgent need to expand the surgical care delivery system starting with the district-level hospitals. Routine surgical data collection at both the health facility and household level should be implemented.

Mortality of Stroke and Its Subtypes in China: Results from a Nationwide Population-Based Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zhenghong; Jiang, Bin; Ru, Xiaojuan; Sun, Haixin; Sun, Dongling; Liu, Xiangtong; Li, Yichong; Li, Di; Guo, Xiuhua; Wang, Wenzhi

2017-01-01

In China, stroke is the leading cause of death and contributes to a heavy disease burden. However, a nationwide population-based survey of the mortality of stroke and its subtypes is lacking for this country. Data derived from the National Epidemiological Survey of Stroke in China, which was a multistage, stratified clustering sampling-designed, cross-sectional survey, were analyzed. Mortality rate analyses were performed for 476,156 participants ≥20 years old from September 1, 2012 to August 31, 2013. Of the 476,156 participants in the investigated population, 364 died of ischemic stroke, 373 of hemorrhagic stroke, and 21 of stroke of undetermined pathological type. The age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years among those aged ≥20 years were 114.8 for total stroke, 56.5 for ischemic stroke, and 55.8 for hemorrhagic stroke. The age-standardized mortality rates of total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke were all higher in rural areas than those in urban areas. The stroke mortality rate was higher in the northern regions than in the south. An estimated 1.12 million people aged ≥20 years in China died of stroke during the period from September 1, 2012 to August 31, 2013. The burden of stroke in China is still heavy. Greater attention should be paid to improve strategies for preventing stroke. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Multiobjective optimal allocation problem with probabilistic non ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

The probabilistic non-linear cost constraint is converted into equivalent deterministic .... Further, in a survey the costs for enumerating a character in various strata are not known exactly, rather these are being ...... Naval Research Logistics, Vol.

Nationwide survey of radon levels in indoor workplaces in Mexico using Nuclear Track Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Espinosa, G.; Golzarri, J.I.; Angeles, A.; Griffith, R.V.

2009-01-01

This report presents the preliminary results of an indoor workplace radon survey conducted during 2006-2007. Monitoring was carried out in 24 of the 32 federal entities of Mexico, incorporating 26 cities and 288 locations. The area monitored was divided into 8 regions for the purposes of the study: Chihuahua (a state with uranium mines), North-Central, South-Central, Southeast, South, Northeast, Northwest, and West. These regions differ in terms of geographic and geological characteristics, climate, altitude, and building materials and architectonic styles. Nuclear Track Methodology (NTM) was employed for the survey, using a passive closed-end cup device with Poly Allyl Diglycol Carbonate (PADC), known by its trade name CR-39 (Lantrack), as detector material. Well-established protocols for making continuous indoor radon measurements were followed, including one-step chemical etching in a 6.25 M KOH solution at 60 ± 1 deg. C with an etching time of 18 h. The track densities were determined with an automatic digital system at the Instituto de Fisica de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (IFUNAM) (Physics Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico), and calibrated in facilities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The importance of this survey lies in the fact that it represents the first time a nationwide survey of radon levels in indoor workplaces has been carried out in Mexico. Mean indoor radon levels from continuous measurements taken during and after working hours ranged from 13 Bq m -3 (the lower limit of detection) to 196 Bq m -3 . Analogous official controls or regulations for radon levels in indoor workplaces do not exist in Mexico. The survey described here contributes to knowledge of the natural radiological environment in workplaces, and will aid the relevant authorities in establishing appropriate regulations. The survey was made possible by the efforts of both a private institutions and the Dosimeter Application Project

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mullin, D., E-mail: dmullin@nbpower.com [New Brunswick Power Corporation, Point Lepreau Generating Station, Point Lepreau (Canada); Alcinov, T.; Roussel, P.; Lavine, A.; Arcos, M.E.M.; Hanson, K.; Youngs, R., E-mail: trajce.alcinov@amecfw.com, E-mail: patrick.roussel@amecfw.com [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Dartmouth, NS (Canada)

2015-07-01

In 2012 the Geological Survey of Canada published a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in Open File 7201 that presents the most up-to-date information on all potential tsunami sources in a probabilistic framework on a national level, thus providing the underlying basis for conducting site-specific tsunami hazard assessments. However, the assessment identified a poorly constrained hazard for the Atlantic Coastline and recommended further evaluation. As a result, NB Power has embarked on performing a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Point Lepreau Generating Station. This paper provides the methodology and progress or hazard evaluation results for Point Lepreau G.S. (author)

Gender Differences in Depressive Symptom Profile: Results from Nationwide General Population Surveys in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ji-Hyun; Cho, Maeng Je; Hong, Jin Pyo; Bae, Jae Nam; Cho, Seong-Jin; Hahm, Bong-Jin; Lee, Dong-Woo; Park, Jong-Ik; Lee, Jun-Young; Jeon, Hong Jin; Chang, Sung Man

2015-11-01

This study investigated gender differences in symptom profiles of major depressive disorder (MDD) in the Korean general population. Data were pooled from the series of nationwide Korean Epidemiologic Catchment Area surveys conducted in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. Of the 18,807 participants, 507 (397 women and 110 men) were diagnosed with MDD within the prior 12 months. In agreement with previous studies, women with MDD appeared to be more vulnerable to experiencing atypical depressive episodes defined as depression with two or more symptoms of fatigue, increased appetite and hypersomnia (P differences in symptomatology of MDD in the general Korean population, and the results are comparable to previous investigations from western societies. Assumingly, the intercultural similarity in female preponderance to atypical depression might reflect the common biological construct underlying the gender difference in mechanism of MDD. In clinical settings, gender differences of MDD should be carefully considered, because these features could be related with treatment response and drug side effects.

American preferences for “smart” guns versus traditional weapons: Results from a nationwide survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lacey Nicole Wallace

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study examines Americans' preferences regarding smart guns. The study builds on prior research by including previously unexamined factors, specifically victimization and comfort sharing gun ownership status with a doctor. Further, this study examines differences in preference patterns among gun owners and non-owners. Data were obtained from a nationwide online survey with 524 respondents in February 2016. The study finds that, among non-owners, older respondents and those with pro-gun attitudes are less likely to prefer smart guns to traditional firearms. Among gun owners, those with moderate political views, those with a history of victimization, and those residing in the Northeast are all more likely to prefer smart guns. Males and those with pro-gun attitudes are less likely to prefer smart guns. Education, income, race, marital status, presence of children in the home, and comfort discussing gun ownership with a doctor had no significant association with smart gun preference. Practical implications of these findings are discussed.

A nationwide survey of pediatric acquired demyelinating syndromes in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Yamaguchi, Y.; Kira, R.; Ishizaki, Y.; Sakai, Y.; Sanefuji, M.; Ichiyama, T.; Oka, A.; Kishi, T.; Kimura, S.; Kubota, M.; Takanashi, J.; Takahashi, Y.; Tamai, H.; Natsume, J.; Hamano, S.; Hirabayashi, S.; Maegaki, Y.; Mizuguchi, M.; Minagawa, K.; Yoshikawa, H.; Kira, J.; Kusunoki, S.; Hara, T.

2016-01-01

Objective: To investigate the clinical and epidemiologic features of pediatric acquired demyelinating syndromes (ADS) of the CNS in Japan. Methods: We conducted a nationwide survey and collected clinical data on children with ADS aged 15 years or younger, who visited hospitals between 2005 and 2007. Results: Among 977 hospitals enrolled, 723 (74.0%) responded to our inquiries and reported a total of 439 patients as follows: 244 with acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), 117 with multiple sclerosis (MS), 14 with neuromyelitis optica (NMO), and 64 with other ADS. We collected and analyzed detailed data from 204 cases, including those with ADEM (66), MS (58), and NMO (10). We observed the following: (1) the estimated annual incidence rate of pediatric ADEM in Japan was 0.40 per 100,000 children (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34–0.46), with the lowest prevalence in the north; (2) the estimated prevalence rate of MS was 0.69 per 100,000 children (95% CI, 0.58–0.80), with the lowest prevalence in the south; (3) NMO in Japan was rare, with an estimated prevalence of 0.06 per 100,000 children (95% CI, 0.04–0.08); and (4) the sex ratio and mean age at onset varied by ADS type, and (5) male/female ratios correlated with ages at onset in each ADS group. Conclusions: Our results clarify the characteristic clinical features of pediatric ADS in the Japanese population. PMID:27742816

Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2008-10-01

We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.

A nationwide survey of factors influencing adherence to ocular hypotensive eyedrops in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsumura, Toyoaki; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Suzuki, Yasuyuki; Yoshikawa, Keiji; Suzumura, Hirotaka; Maeda, Toshine; Takeda, Ryuji; Saito, Hitomi; Araie, Makoto

2018-01-12

Few reports have investigated the status of adherence in Japan on a large scale. We aimed to investigate the status of adherence to topical glaucoma treatment and its associated factors. A nationwide survey was conducted as a prospective fashion. Participants in this survey were subjects with primary open-angle glaucoma, normal-tension glaucoma, or ocular hypertension or pseudoexfoliation glaucoma who had been prescribed anti-glaucoma ophthalmic eyedrops and whose ophthalmologist considered prescribing any fixed combination of ocular hypotensive eyedrops for the first time between 2011 and 2012. Subjects and their attending ophthalmologists independently completed a questionnaire by utilizing a fixed combination of ocular hypotensive eyedrops. A total of 1358 ophthalmologists from 1071 medical institutions participated in this survey. We registered 4430 subjects (2049 males and 2381 females). In total, data from 3853 subjects (87.6%) were analyzed after inclusion of subjects based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Good adherence was defined as not forgetting instillation during the past week. Rates of good adherence reported by subjects and ophthalmologists were 72.4 and 78.5%, respectively (P < 0.0001). The consistency of adherence evaluation between subjects and ophthalmologists was moderate [kappa score 0.5025 (95% confidence interval 0.4740-0.5309)]. Significant factors associated with adherence were size of clinic, age, gender, number of types of ocular hypotensive eyedrops, ease of instillation, preferred number of eyedrops, preferred frequency of instillation of eyedrops, and knowledge of glaucoma. Adherence to ocular hypotensive eyedrops among Japanese subjects was relatively good. Concordance of adherence between subjects' reports and ophthalmologists' responses was moderate. Size of clinic, number of types of ocular hypotensive eyedrops, ease of instillation, preferred number of eyedrops, preferred frequency of instillation of eyedrops, and knowledge

Unhealthy lifestyle, poor mental health, and its correlation among adolescents: a nationwide cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanihata, Takeo; Kanda, Hideyuki; Osaki, Yoneatsu; Ohida, Takashi; Minowa, Masumi; Wada, Kiyoshi; Suzuki, Kenji; Hayashi, Kenji

2015-03-01

The objective was to study the relationship between mental health and lifestyles of adolescents using samples representative of Japanese adolescents nationwide. The survey was conducted between December 2004 and January 2005 among students enrolled in randomly selected junior and senior high schools. Self-administered questionnaires addressed lifestyles, sleeping habits, and mental health status. Of 103 650 questionnaires collected, 85 158 were analyzed. Population characteristics associated with poor mental health were being female, being a senior high school student, skipping breakfast, not participating in extracurricular activities, not consulting parents about personal matters, parental smoking, students' smoking or alcohol use, poor subjective sleep assessment, and short or long sleeping duration. Smoking and anxiety disorders are associated with an elevation in acculturative stress in adolescents. Prepossessing adolescents are in subclinical depression. Results suggest that lifestyles approaches in preventions that target students can be effective in reaching high-risk populations. © 2012 APJPH.

Palliative sedation at home in the Netherlands: a nationwide survey among nurses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brinkkemper, T.; Klinkenberg, M.; Deliens, L.; Eliel, M.; Rietjens, J.A.C.; Zuurmond, W.W.A.; Perez, R.S.G.M.

2011-01-01

Aim. This paper is a report of a nationwide study conducted to assess experiences of nurses involved in palliative sedation at home after introduction of a physicians' guideline for palliative sedation. Background. Most studies investigating the practice of palliative sedation focus on physicians'

General Overview of Psychotherapeutic Practice in Poland. Results from a Nationwide Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Suszek, Hubert; Grzesiuk, Lidia; Styła, Rafał; Krawczyk, Krzysztof

2017-09-01

A total of 1196 persons conducting psychotherapy in Poland fully completed a nationwide online survey (or, alternatively, a paper and pencil enquiry) concerning their education, training, experience, and clinical work (professional environment, patients treated). The results are described in detail and compared with findings of similar studies from other countries. Among the primary findings were: (1) psychotherapy in Poland is conducted mostly by women (80 %); (2) almost all participants have an MA degree (91 %), including 75.2 % having graduated in psychology; (3) the therapists are well trained (mean number of training hours is above 942) and established (average experience is about 9.8 years), however, more than half of the therapists have no type of certificate; (4) 54 % of respondents identify with the integrative or eclectic orientation and, simultaneously, for 48.6 % of the therapists the most important approach is either psychodynamic or psychoanalytic; (5) the most common form of therapy is individual psychotherapy in private practice; (6) the majority of the therapists treat adult patients with anxiety or personality disorders. In sum, the results show that psychotherapeutic practice is well established in Poland and many indices are similar to those found in Western countries.

[Nationwide survey on radioactive waste management related to positron emission tomography in Japan].

Science.gov (United States)

Nagaoka, Hiroaki; Watanabe, Hiroshi; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Fujibuchi, Toshioh; Kida, Tetsuo; Tanaka, Shinji

2009-12-20

A clearance system for medical radioactive solid waste has not yet been implemented in Japan. Since 2004 new regulations have allowed institutions using positron emission tomography(PET)to handle totally decayed radioactive waste as non-radioactive waste after decay-in-storage. It was expected that this new regulation would mediate the installation of clearance systems in Japan. In order to assess the current situation of radiation safety management in PET institutions, we conducted a nationwide survey. The study design was a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted by questionnaire. The subjects of this survey were all the PET institutions in Japan. Among 224 institutes, 128 institutes are equipped with cyclotrons and 96 institutes are not. The number of returned questionnaires was 138. Among institutes that are using delivered radiopharmaceuticals, 80% treat their waste as non-radioactive according to the new regulation. The impact of new regulations for reducing radioactive waste in PET institutes without a cyclotron was estimated at about $400 thousand per year. The main concern of medical institutes was assessment of the contamination caused by by-products of radioactive nuclides generated in target water during the operation of a cyclotron. It was thought that a rational rule based on scientific risk management should be established because these by-products of radioactive nuclides are negligible for radiation safety. New regulation has had a good influence on medical PET institutes, and it is expected that a clearance system for medical radioactive waste will be introduced in the near future, following these recent experiences in PET institutes.

Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bochaton Audrey

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods. Methods We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected a priori determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision. Application We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population. Conclusion This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind

Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR).

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Vallée, Julie; Souris, Marc; Fournet, Florence; Bochaton, Audrey; Mobillion, Virginie; Peyronnie, Karine; Salem, Gérard

2007-06-01

Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods. We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected a priori determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision. We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population. This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind the construction of the survey sample and shows that it can be

Nationwide survey of dental radiographic examination and estimation of collective effective dose in Japan, 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwai, Kazuo; Satomi, Chieko; Kawashima, Shoji; Hashimoto, Koji; Nishizawa, Kanae; Maruyama, Takashi

2005-01-01

A nationwide survey of dental X-ray examination in Japan was performed in 1999, and the effective exposure dose due to the dental X-ray examination was estimated. In Japan, most dental X-ray equipment are used at a tube voltage of 60 kV and a tube current of 10 mA. Dental film in speed group D is most frequently used for dental X ray examination. Fifty percent or more of dental clinics processed the films automatically. Seventy-five percent of dental clinics performed dental X-ray examinations in a separate X-ray room. The number of dental X-ray examinations in 1999 in Japan was estimated to be 82,301,000 for intra-oral radiography and 12,336,000 for panoramic radiography. The collective effective exposure dose in 1999 was estimated at 905.5 man·Sv, for intra-oral radiography and 128.9 man·Sv for panoramic radiography. (author)

Polydrug use among college students in Brazil: a nationwide survey

OpenAIRE

Oliveira,Lúcio Garcia de; Alberghini,Denis Guilherme; Santos,Bernardo dos; Andrade,Arthur Guerra de

2013-01-01

Objective: To estimate the frequency of polydrug use (alcohol and illicit drugs) among college students and its associations with gender and age group. Methods: A nationwide sample of 12,544 college students was asked to complete a questionnaire on their use of drugs according to three time parameters (lifetime, past 12 months, and last 30 days). The co-use of drugs was investigated as concurrent polydrug use (CPU) and simultaneous polydrug use (SPU), a subcategory of CPU that involves the ...

State of malaria diagnostic testing at clinical laboratories in the United States, 2010: a nationwide survey

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Abanyie Francisca A

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The diagnosis of malaria can be difficult in non-endemic areas, such as the United States, and delays in diagnosis and errors in treatment occur too often. Methods A nationwide survey of laboratories in the United States and its nine dependent territories was conducted in 2010 to determine factors that may contribute to shortcomings in the diagnosis of malaria. This survey explored the availability of malaria diagnostic tests, techniques used, and reporting practices. Results The survey was completed by 201 participants. Ninety percent reported that their laboratories had at least one type of malaria diagnostic test available on-site. Nearly all of the respondents' laboratories performed thick and thin smears on-site; approximately 50% had access to molecular testing; and only 17% had access to rapid diagnostic tests on-site. Seventy-three percent reported fewer than five confirmed cases of malaria in their laboratory during the 12-month period preceding the survey. Twenty-eight percent stated that results of species identification took more than 24 hours to report. Only five of 149 respondents that performed testing 24 hours a day, 7 days a week complied with all of the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI guidelines for analysis and reporting of results. Conclusion Although malaria diagnostic testing services were available to a majority of U.S. laboratories surveyed, very few were in complete compliance with all of the CLSI guidelines for analysis and reporting of results, and most respondents reported very few cases of malaria annually. Laboratories' difficulty in adhering to the rigorous CLSI guidelines and their personnel's lack of practice and proficiency may account for delays and errors in diagnosis. It is recommended that laboratories that infrequently process samples for malaria seek opportunities for practice and proficiency training annually and take advantage of available resources to assist in

Information-searching behaviors of main and allied health professionals: a nationwide survey in Taiwan.

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Weng, Yi-Hao; Kuo, Ken N; Yang, Chun-Yuh; Lo, Heng-Lien; Shih, Ya-Hui; Chiu, Ya-Wen

2013-10-01

There are a variety of resources to obtain health information, but few studies have examined if main and allied health professionals prefer different methods. The current study was to investigate their information-searching behaviours. A constructed questionnaire survey was conducted from January through April 2011 in nationwide regional hospitals of Taiwan. Questionnaires were mailed to main professionals (physicians and nurses) and allied professionals (pharmacists, physical therapists, technicians and others), with 6160 valid returns collected. Among all professional groups, the most commonly used resource for seeking health information was a Web portal, followed by colleague consultations and continuing education. Physicians more often accessed Internet-based professional resources (online databases, electronic journals and electronic books) than the other groups (P < 0.05). In contrast, physical therapists more often accessed printed resources (printed journals and textbooks) than the other specialists (P < 0.05). And nurses, physical therapists and technicians more often asked colleagues and used continuing education than the other groups (P < 0.01). The most commonly used online database was Micromedex for pharmacists and MEDLINE for physicians, technicians and physical therapists. Nurses more often accessed Chinese-language databases rather than English-language databases (P < 0.001). This national survey depicts the information-searching pattern of various health professionals. There were significant differences between and within main and allied health professionals in their information searching. The data provide clinical implications for strategies to promote the accessing of evidence-based information. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lung cancer specialist physicians' attitudes towards e-cigarettes: A nationwide survey.

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Shin, Dong Wook; Kim, Young Il; Kim, Seung Joon; Kim, Jung Soo; Chong, SeMin; Park, Young Sik; Song, Sang-Yun; Lee, Jin Han; Ahn, Hee Kyung; Kim, Eun Young; Yang, Sei Hoon; Lee, Myoung Kyu; Cho, Deog Gon; Jang, Tae Won; Son, Ji Woong; Ryu, Jeong-Seon; Cho, Moon-June

2017-01-01

Despite a sharp increase in e-cigarette use, there is debate about whether e-cigarettes are a viable alternative for harm reduction, and the forms that regulation should take. Healthcare providers can be effective in offering guidance to patients and their families and shaping regulatory policy. We described lung cancer specialists' attitudes toward e-cigarettes and its regulation. We undertook a nationwide survey of pulmonologists, thoracic surgeons, medical and radiological oncologists who are members of Korean Association for Lung Cancer. Survey items included beliefs and attitudes toward e-cigarettes, attitudes toward e-cigarette regulation and preparedness on discussing e-cigarettes with their patients. Most respondents believed that e-cigarettes are not safer than conventional tobacco cigarettes (75.7%) or smokeless tobacco (83.2%), and feared that discussing e-cigarettes with the patients would encourage use (65.4%). They did not consider it a smoking cessation treatment (78.3%), and thus would not recommend it to smokers who do not want to quit (82.2%) or who failed to quit with conventional smoking cessation treatment (74.1%). Most respondents supported all examples of e-cigarette regulations, including the safety and quality check (97.8%), warning label (97.8%), advertisement ban (95.1%), restriction of flavoring (78.4%), minimum purchasing age (99.5%), and restriction of indoor use (94.6%). Most learned about e-cigarettes from media and advertisements, or conversation with patients rather than through professional scientific resources, and reported discomfort when discussing e-cigarette with patients. Lung cancer specialist physicians in Korea doubt the safety of e-cigarette and use of e-cigarette as smoking cessation treatment, and supported strict regulation. However, only 20% reported that they obtained information on e-cigarettes from the scientific literature and many lacked adequate knowledge based on scientific evidence, suggesting the need for

Procedural pain management in Italy: learning from a nationwide survey involving centers of the Italian Association of Pediatric Hematology-Oncology

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Chiara Po'

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Procedural pain is an important aspect of care in pediatrics, and particularly in pediatric oncology where children often consider this to be the most painful experience during their illness. Best recommended practice to control procedural pain includes both sedative-analgesic administration and non-pharmacological treatments, practiced in an adequate and pleasant setting by skilled staff. A nationwide survey has been conducted among the Italian Centers of Pediatric Hematology-Oncology to register operators’ awareness on procedural pain, state of the art procedural pain management, operators’ opinions about pain control in their center, and possible barriers impeding sedation-analgesia administration. Based on indications in the literature, we discuss the results of the survey to highlight critical issues and suggest future directions for improvement. Future objectives will be to overcome differences depending on size, improve operators’ beliefs about the complexity of pain experience, and promote a global approach to procedural pain.

Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys.

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Flávio Chaimowicz

Full Text Available The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries' populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil.We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815. Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%.The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations.

Nationwide survey of rotavirus-associated encephalopathy and sudden unexpected death in Japan.

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Kawamura, Yoshiki; Ohashi, Masahiro; Ihira, Masaru; Hashimoto, Shuji; Taniguchi, Koki; Yoshikawa, Tetsushi

2014-08-01

Rotavirus can cause severe complications such as encephalopathy/encephalitis and sudden unexpected death. The incidence of rotavirus-associated encephalopathy/encephalitis or sudden unexpected death remains unknown. To clarify the clinical features of rotavirus-associated encephalitis/encephalopathy and sudden unexpected death, we conducted a nationwide survey in Japan. A two-part questionnaire was designed to determine the number of the cases and the clinical features of severe cases of rotavirus infection, including encephalitis/encephalopathy and sudden unexpected death, between 2009 and 2011. Of the 1365 questionnaires sent to hospitals, 963 (70.5%) were returned and eligible for analysis. We determined 58 cases of rotavirus-associated encephalitis/encephalopathy and 7 cases of sudden unexpected death. These patients were diagnosed with rotavirus infection by immunochromatography. Although 36/58 (62.1%) encephalitis/encephalopathy patients had no sequelae, 15/58 (25.9%) patients had neurological sequelae, and 7/58 (12.1%) patients had fatal outcomes. Pleocytosis was observed in 9/40 (22.5%) patients and cerebrospinal fluid protein levels were elevated in only 4/40 (10%) patients. Elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (>500 IU/L) or acidemia (pHdeath were 44.0 and 4.9 cases in Japan, respectively. Elevated LDH (>500 IU/L) or acidemia (pH<7.15) were related to a poor prognosis of the encephalitis/encephalopathy. Copyright © 2013 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How to support teenagers who are losing a parent to cancer: Bereaved young adults' advice to healthcare professionals-A nationwide survey.

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Alvariza, Anette; Lövgren, Malin; Bylund-Grenklo, Tove; Hakola, Pia; Fürst, Carl Johan; Kreicbergs, Ulrika

2017-06-01

The loss of a parent to cancer is considered one of the most traumatic events a teenager can experience. Studies have shown that teenagers, from the time of diagnosis, are already extremely worried about the consequences of a parent's cancer but tend to be left to manage these concerns on their own. The present study aimed to explore young adults' advice to healthcare professionals on how to support teenagers who are losing a parent to cancer. This work derives from a Swedish nationwide survey and employs a qualitative approach with a descriptive/interpretive design to obtain answers to an open-ended question concerning advice to healthcare professionals. Of the 851 eligible young adults who had lost a parent to cancer when they were 13-16 years of age within the previous 6 to 9 years, 622 participated in our survey (response rate = 73%). Of these 622 young adults, 481 responded to the open-ended question about what advice to give healthcare professionals. Four themes emerged: (1) to be seen and acknowledged; (2) to understand and prepare for illness, treatment, and the impending death; (3) to spend time with the ill parent, and (4) to receive support tailored to the individual teenager's needs. This nationwide study contributes hands-on suggestions to healthcare staff regarding attitudes, communication, and support from the perspective of young adults who, in their teenage years, lost a parent to cancer. Teenagers may feel better supported during a parent's illness if healthcare professionals take this manageable advice forward into practice and see each teenager as individuals; explain the disease, its treatments, and consequences; encourage teenagers to spend time with their ill parent; and recommend sources of support.

A nationwide survey on the epidemiology and clinical features of eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (Churg-Strauss) in Japan.

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Sada, Ken-Ei; Amano, Koichi; Uehara, Ritei; Yamamura, Masahiro; Arimura, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Yoshikazu; Makino, Hirofumi

2014-07-01

We conducted a cross-sectional nationwide survey to determine eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (Churg-Strauss) (EGPA) prevalence and clinical features in Japan. Data for EGPA patients in 2008 were collected from 1,564 hospitals. In total, 965 patients were reported from 365 departments. In a second survey, clinical data for 473 patients were obtained. We estimated that 1,866 (95% CI: 1,640-2,092) patients have EGPA in Japan (prevalence, 17.8/1,000,000). Of the 473 patients in the second survey, 315 fulfilled American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria or Lanham's criteria for EGPA. The mean age (± SD) of the 315 at onset was 55 ± 14 years, male to female ratio 1:2. 93% of patients had neurological manifestations, which were the organ system most frequently involved. Among 277 patients tested for myeloperoxidase (MPO)-/p anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA), 139 (50%) were positive, while only 6 of 238 were positive for proteinase3 (PR3)-/cANCA. MPO-ANCA-positive patients had renal involvement, mucous membrane or ophthalmological symptoms, and ENT symptoms more frequently, whereas cutaneous lesions and cardiovascular involvement were less common. The prevalence of EGPA and the frequency of MPO-/p-ANCA-positivity in Japanese EGPA patients were mostly similar to those of Western countries. However, female predominance and a high frequency of neurological manifestations characterized Japanese patients.

Quality of life, use of topical medications and socio-economic data in hand eczema: a Swedish nationwide survey.

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Bingefors, Kerstin; Lindberg, Magnus; Isacson, Dag

2011-06-01

Hand eczema is common and has an adverse impact on the lives of patients. There is a need for population-based surveys on the pharmacoepidemiological aspects, quality of life and impact of socioeconomic factors in hand eczema. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate these factors. A questionnaire-based nationwide survey of health was performed, including questions on hand eczema, use of pharmaceuticals and socioeconomic factors. Quality of life was estimated with the generic instrument Short Form 36 (SF-36). The questionnaire was sent to 7,985 persons (age range 18-84 years), response rate 61.1% (n = 4,875). The 1-year prevalence of hand eczema in the study population was 7.5%. In this group, quality of life was lower. All dimensions of SF-36 were affected, most markedly general health and those dimensions reporting on mental health. In the group with self-reported hand eczema, 51% reported using topical pharmaceuticals. Hand eczema was more common among women (9.1%, n = 2,630) than among men (5.6%, n = 2,245) and in the age group below 65 years (8.5%, n = 3,274) compared with those aged 65 years and over (4.3%, n = 1,151). This survey clearly demonstrates the impact of hand eczema on several dimensions of life and also highlights age, gender and socioeconomic differences.

Survey of probabilistic methods in safety and risk assessment for nuclear power plant licensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-04-01

After an overview about the goals and general methods of probabilistic approaches in nuclear safety the main features of probabilistic safety or risk assessment (PRA) methods are discussed. Mostly in practical applications not a full-fledged PRA is applied but rather various levels of analysis leading from unavailability assessment of systems over the more complex analysis of the probable core damage stages up to the assessment of the overall health effects on the total population from a certain practice. The various types of application are discussed in relation to their limitation and benefits for different stages of design or operation of nuclear power plants. This gives guidance for licensing staff to judge the usefulness of the various methods for their licensing decisions. Examples of the application of probabilistic methods in several countries are given. Two appendices on reliability analysis and on containment and consequence analysis provide some more details on these subjects. (author)

Nuclear medicine practice in Japan. A report of the sixth nationwide survey in 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuwabara, Yasuo; Koizumi, Kiyoshi; Ushijima, Yo

2009-01-01

The Subcommittee on the Survey of Nuclear Medicine Practice in Japan has performed a nationwide survey of nuclear medicine practice every 5 years since 1982 to provide detailed information on its present status. Questionnaires were sent to all institutions known to the Japan Radioisotope Association to conduct nuclear medicine examinations. The questionnaires addressed the number and kind of nuclear medicine examinations performed as well as the kind and dose of the radiopharmaceuticals used during the month of June 2007. The annual number of total or specific examinations was then estimated. Of the institutions sent questionnaires, 1219 were for in vivo study, 49 for in vitro study, and 212 for positron emission tomography (PET) study. Of these, 92.2% provided answers. A total of 1569 gamma cameras were installed in 1119 institutions, of which 70% were dual-head cameras. The estimated total annual number of in vivo examinations expressed by the number of administered radiopharmaceuticals was 1.41 million, representing a decrease of 11.5% when compared with that of the previous survey (2002). The frequency of study with respect to single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) slightly increased to 42.3% from 39.9% in the previous survey. The most frequently performed scintigraphy was bone (38.3%), followed by myocardium (26.2%) and brain perfusion (14.1%). Brain perfusion scintigraphy slightly increased, whereas tumor scintigraphy decreased by one-half when compared with the previous survey. The most commonly used radiopharmaceutical for each scintigraphy was 99m Tc-hydroxymethylene diphosphonate (HMDP) for bone, thallium-201 ( 201 Tl)-chloride for myocardium, gallium-67 ( 67 Ga)-citrate for tumor, and technetium-99m-ethylcysteinate dimmer ( 99m Tc-ECD) for brain. The number of PET institutes increased from 36 to 212. 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 F-FDG)-PET dramatically increased 14.8-fold during the past 5 years. Radionuclide therapy also increased. 131 I

Patient safety education at Japanese medical schools: results of a nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Maeda, Shoichi; Kamishiraki, Etsuko; Starkey, Jay

2012-05-10

Patient safety education, including error prevention strategies and management of adverse events, has become a topic of worldwide concern. The importance of the patient safety is also recognized in Japan following two serious medical accidents in 1999. Furthermore, educational curriculum guideline revisions in 2008 by relevant the Ministry of Education includes patient safety as part of the core medical curriculum. However, little is known about the patient safety education in Japanese medical schools partly because a comprehensive study has not yet been conducted in this field. Therefore, we have conducted a nationwide survey in order to clarify the current status of patient safety education at medical schools in Japan. Response rate was 60.0% (n = 48/80). Ninety-eight-percent of respondents (n = 47/48) reported integration of patient safety education into their curricula. Thirty-nine percent reported devoting less than five hours to the topic. All schools that teach patient safety reported use of lecture based teaching methods while few used alternative methods, such as role-playing or in-hospital training. Topics related to medical error theory and legal ramifications of error are widely taught while practical topics related to error analysis such as root cause analysis are less often covered. Based on responses to our survey, most Japanese medical schools have incorporated the topic of patient safety into their curricula. However, the number of hours devoted to the patient safety education is far from the sufficient level with forty percent of medical schools that devote five hours or less to it. In addition, most medical schools employ only the lecture based learning, lacking diversity in teaching methods. Although most medical schools cover basic error theory, error analysis is taught at fewer schools. We still need to make improvements to our medical safety curricula. We believe that this study has the implications for the rest of the world as a

Patient safety education at Japanese medical schools: results of a nationwide survey

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Maeda Shoichi

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient safety education, including error prevention strategies and management of adverse events, has become a topic of worldwide concern. The importance of the patient safety is also recognized in Japan following two serious medical accidents in 1999. Furthermore, educational curriculum guideline revisions in 2008 by relevant the Ministry of Education includes patient safety as part of the core medical curriculum. However, little is known about the patient safety education in Japanese medical schools partly because a comprehensive study has not yet been conducted in this field. Therefore, we have conducted a nationwide survey in order to clarify the current status of patient safety education at medical schools in Japan. Results Response rate was 60.0% (n = 48/80. Ninety-eight-percent of respondents (n = 47/48 reported integration of patient safety education into their curricula. Thirty-nine percent reported devoting less than five hours to the topic. All schools that teach patient safety reported use of lecture based teaching methods while few used alternative methods, such as role-playing or in-hospital training. Topics related to medical error theory and legal ramifications of error are widely taught while practical topics related to error analysis such as root cause analysis are less often covered. Conclusions Based on responses to our survey, most Japanese medical schools have incorporated the topic of patient safety into their curricula. However, the number of hours devoted to the patient safety education is far from the sufficient level with forty percent of medical schools that devote five hours or less to it. In addition, most medical schools employ only the lecture based learning, lacking diversity in teaching methods. Although most medical schools cover basic error theory, error analysis is taught at fewer schools. We still need to make improvements to our medical safety curricula. We believe that this

Carbapenem use in French hospitals: A nationwide survey at the patient level.

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Gauzit, Rémy; Pean, Yves; Alfandari, Serge; Bru, Jean-Pierre; Bedos, Jean-Pierre; Rabaud, Christian; Robert, Jérôme

2015-12-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of carbapenem use in French healthcare settings in order to guide future actions. Healthcare facilities voluntarily participated in a nationwide cross-sectional survey in 2011. Medical data and reasons for carbapenem treatment (CPR) and discontinuation were recorded for all patients treated with carbapenems. A total of 2338 patients were recorded by 207 facilities. The median duration of CPR was 8 days, and 31.4% of patients received CPR for >10 days. An antibiotic consultant was involved in the initial choice of CPR in 36.8% of cases. CPR was chosen on an empirical (EP) basis for 1229 patients (52.6%), mainly because of severe sepsis (48.6%) or a perceived risk of bacterial resistance (33.7%). Among EP patients, de-escalation was more frequent in the case of intervention of an antibiotic consultant (35.1%) than without intervention (22.9%) (Pcarbapenems or to fluoroquinolones. Among the latter, de-escalation was performed in 59 cases (14.9%). The intervention of an antibiotic consultant did not favour de-escalation in this group. In conclusion, carbapenems are frequently used for treating suspected or confirmed multidrug-resistant bacteria, and overall CPR duration is long. De-escalation is frequently not implemented despite isolates being susceptible to other drugs. More frequent antibiotic consultant intervention may help to decrease carbapenem use in the case of EP treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

Nation-wide anthropometric survey data in Japan to determine dimensions of total-body phantom for Reference Japanese Man

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Togo, Masami

1990-01-01

In order to estimate radiation dose in Japanese population accurately, a Reference Japanese Man, whose stature and body weight are 170cm and 60kg respectively, is indispensable. The MIRD 5 total-body phantom has only 8 dimensions, i.e. total head height, head length, head breadth, trunk length, trunk breadth, leg length, and breadth and depth of a leg model at its lower end. Based on Japanese anthropometric data, the dimensions were determined and its mathematical descriptions were given. In Japan, annual statistical data of stature, body weight, chest circumference and sitting height for all Japan by sex and age are published. But other nation-wide survey data necessary for determining dimensions of total-body phantom of Reference Japanese Man, are unavailable. Much more national anthropometric data of every kind necessary for defining phantoms must be compiled. (author)

Efficient probabilistic inference in generic neural networks trained with non-probabilistic feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-07-26

Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of SSME Turbopump Blades: Probabilistic Geometry Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Nagpal, V. K.

1985-01-01

A probabilistic study was initiated to evaluate the precisions of the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades. To complete this study, a number of important probabilistic variables were identified which are conceived to affect the structural response of the blade. In addition, a methodology was developed to statistically quantify the influence of these probabilistic variables in an optimized way. The identified variables include random geometric and material properties perturbations, different loadings and a probabilistic combination of these loadings. Influences of these probabilistic variables are planned to be quantified by evaluating the blade structural response. Studies of the geometric perturbations were conducted for a flat plate geometry as well as for a space shuttle main engine blade geometry using a special purpose code which uses the finite element approach. Analyses indicate that the variances of the perturbations about given mean values have significant influence on the response.

On Probabilistic Alpha-Fuzzy Fixed Points and Related Convergence Results in Probabilistic Metric and Menger Spaces under Some Pompeiu-Hausdorff-Like Probabilistic Contractive Conditions

OpenAIRE

De la Sen, M.

2015-01-01

In the framework of complete probabilistic metric spaces and, in particular, in probabilistic Menger spaces, this paper investigates some relevant properties of convergence of sequences to probabilistic α-fuzzy fixed points under some types of probabilistic contractive conditions.

Gynecologic oncologists' attitudes and practices relating to integrative medicine: results of a nationwide AGO survey.

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Klein, Evelyn; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bader, Werner; Brucker, Cosima; Dobos, Gustav; Fischer, Dorothea; Hanf, Volker; Hasenburg, Annette; Jud, Sebastian M; Kalder, Matthias; Kiechle, Marion; Kümmel, Sherko; Müller, Andreas; Müller, Myrjam-Alice T; Paepke, Daniela; Rotmann, Andre-Robert; Schütz, Florian; Scharl, Anton; Voiss, Petra; Wallwiener, Markus; Witt, Claudia; Hack, Carolin C

2017-08-01

The growing popularity and acceptance of integrative medicine is evident both among patients and among the oncologists treating them. As little data are available regarding health-care professionals' knowledge, attitudes, and practices relating to the topic, a nationwide online survey was designed. Over a period of 11 weeks (from July 15 to September 30, 2014) a self-administered, 17-item online survey was sent to all 676 members of the Research Group on Gynecological Oncology (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Gynäkologische Onkologie) in the German Cancer Society. The questionnaire items addressed the use of integrative therapy methods, fields of indications for them, advice services provided, level of specific qualifications, and other topics. Of the 104 respondents (15.4%) using integrative medicine, 93% reported that integrative therapy was offered to breast cancer patients. The second most frequent type of tumor in connection with which integrative therapy methods were recommended was ovarian cancer, at 80% of the participants using integrative medicine. Exercise, nutritional therapy, dietary supplements, herbal medicines, and acupuncture were the methods the patients were most commonly advised to use. There is considerable interest in integrative medicine among gynecological oncologists, but integrative therapy approaches are at present poorly implemented in routine clinical work. Furthermore there is a lack of specific training. Whether future efforts should focus on extending counseling services on integrative medicine approaches in gynecologic oncology or not, have to be discussed. Evidence-based training on integrative medicine should be implemented in order to safely guide patients in their wish to do something by themselves.

Explaining public satisfaction with health-care systems: findings from a nationwide survey in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Munro, Neil; Duckett, Jane

2016-06-01

To identify factors associated with health-care system satisfaction in China. Recent research suggests that socio-demographic characteristics, self-reported health, income and insurance, ideological beliefs, health-care utilization, media use and perceptions of services may affect health-care system satisfaction, but the relative importance of these factors is poorly understood. New data from China offer the opportunity to test theories about the sources of health-care system satisfaction. Stratified nationwide survey sample analysed using multilevel logistic regression. 3680 Chinese adults residing in family dwellings between 1 November 2012 and 17 January 2013. Satisfaction with the way the health-care system in China is run. We find only weak associations between satisfaction and socio-demographic characteristics, self-reported health and income. We do, however, find that satisfaction is strongly associated with having insurance and belief in personal responsibility for meeting health-care costs. We also find it is negatively associated with utilization, social media use, perceptions of access as unequal and perceptions of service providers as unethical. To improve satisfaction, Chinese policymakers - and their counterparts in countries with similar health-care system characteristics - should improve insurance coverage and the quality of health services, and tackle unethical medical practices. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Current status of collaborative relationships between dialysis facilities and dental facilities in Japan: results of a nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshioka, Masami; Shirayama, Yasuhiko; Imoto, Issei; Hinode, Daisuke; Yanagisawa, Shizuko; Takeuchi, Yuko

2015-02-12

Recent studies have reported an association between periodontal disease and mortality among dialysis patients. Therefore, preventive dental care should be considered very important for this population. In Japan, no systematic education has been undertaken regarding the importance of preventive dental care for hemodialysis patients--even though these individuals tend to have oral and dental problems. The aim of this study was to investigate the current state of collaborative relationships between hemodialysis facilities and dental services in Japan and also to identify strategies to encourage preventive dental visits among hemodialysis outpatients. A nationwide questionnaire on the collaborative relationship between dialysis facilities and dental facilities was sent by mail to all medical facilities in Japan offering outpatient hemodialysis treatment. Responses were obtained from 1414 of 4014 facilities (35.2%). Among the 1414 facilities, 272 (19.2%) had a dental service department. Approximately 100,000 dialysis outpatients were receiving treatment at these participating facilities, which amounts to one-third of all dialysis patients in Japan. Of those patients, 82.9% received hemodialysis at medical facilities without dental departments. Only 87 of 454 small clinics without in-house dental departments (19.2%) had collaborative registered dental clinics. Medical facilities with registered dental clinics demonstrated a significantly more proactive attitude to routine collaboration on dental matters than facilities lacking such clinics. Our nationwide survey revealed that most dialysis facilities in Japan have neither an in-house dental department nor a collaborative relationship with a registered dental clinic. Registration of dental clinics appears to promote collaboration with dental facilities on a routine basis, which would be beneficial for oral health management in hemodialysis patients.

Palliative sedation at home in the Netherlands: a nationwide survey among nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Brinkkemper, Tijn; Klinkenberg, Marianne; Deliens, Luc; Eliel, Miriam; Rietjens, Judith A C; Zuurmond, Wouter W A; Perez, Roberto S G M

2011-08-01

This paper is a report of a nationwide study conducted to assess experiences of nurses involved in palliative sedation at home after introduction of a physicians' guideline for palliative sedation. Most studies investigating the practice of palliative sedation focus on physicians' practices and attitudes. However, little is known about experiences and attitudes of nurses. A web-based structured questionnaire was offered to 387 nurses providing medical technical care in 2007, assessing their experiences concerning decision-making, treatment policy and communication, focussing on the last patient receiving palliative sedation. The questionnaire was filled out by 201 nurses (response rate 52%). The majority of respondents agreed with the indication for palliative sedation. However, 21% reported to have refused carrying out a palliative sedation in the preceding year. The general practitioner was not present at the start of palliative sedation in a third of the cases, but was available when needed. The sedation was considered insufficiently effective by 42% of the respondents. According to a third of the respondents, the level of sedation was not related to the required level of symptom relief nor were changes in dosage based on the severity of symptoms. Although the guideline for palliative sedation appears to be followed adequately in the majority of cases with respect to indication for palliative sedation and reportage. The survey findings revealed shortcomings in medication policy, communication, medical control over the start and continued monitoring of palliative sedation. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Associations of Topics of Discussion on Twitter With Survey Measures of Attitudes, Knowledge, and Behaviors Related to Zika: Probabilistic Study in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Winneg, Kenneth; Chan, Man-Pui Sally; Hall Jamieson, Kathleen; Albarracin, Dolores

2018-01-01

Background Recent outbreaks of Zika virus around the world led to increased discussions about this issue on social media platforms such as Twitter. These discussions may provide useful information about attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of the population regarding issues that are important for public policy. Objective We sought to identify the associations of the topics of discussions on Twitter and survey measures of Zika-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors, not solely based upon the volume of such discussions but by analyzing the content of conversations using probabilistic techniques. Methods Using probabilistic topic modeling with US county and week as the unit of analysis, we analyzed the content of Twitter online communications to identify topics related to the reported attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors captured in a national representative survey (N=33,193) of the US adult population over 33 weeks. Results Our analyses revealed topics related to “congress funding for Zika,” “microcephaly,” “Zika-related travel discussions,” “insect repellent,” “blood transfusion technology,” and “Zika in Miami” were associated with our survey measures of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors observed over the period of the study. Conclusions Our results demonstrated that it is possible to uncover topics of discussions from Twitter communications that are associated with the Zika-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of populations over time. Social media data can be used as a complementary source of information alongside traditional data sources to gauge the patterns of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors in a population. PMID:29426815

Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.

2007-01-01

A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a

National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS)

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Transportation — The National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVVCS) was a nationwide survey of crashes involving light passenger vehicles, with a focus on the factors related...

Probabilistic Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt

2001-01-01

This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs.......This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs....

Community-Acquired Acute Kidney Injury: A Nationwide Survey in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yafang; Wang, Jinwei; Su, Tao; Qu, Zhen; Zhao, Minghui; Yang, Li

2017-05-01

This study aimed to describe the burden of community-acquired acute kidney injury (AKI) in China based on a nationwide survey about AKI. Cross-sectional and retrospective study. A national sample of 2,223,230 hospitalized adult patients from 44 academic/local hospitals in Mainland China was used. AKI was defined according to the 2012 KDIGO AKI creatinine criteria or an increase or decrease in serum creatinine level of 50% during the hospital stay. Community-acquired AKI was identified when a patient had AKI that could be defined at hospital admission. The rate, cause, recognition, and treatment of community-acquired AKI were stratified according to hospital type, latitude, and economic development of the regions in which the patients were admitted. All-cause in-hospital mortality and recovery of kidney function at hospital discharge. 4,136 patients with community-acquired AKI were identified during the 2 single-month snapshots (January 2013 and July 2013). Of these, 2,020 (48.8%) had cases related to decreased kidney perfusion; 1,111 (26.9%), to intrinsic kidney disease; and 499 (12.1%), to urinary tract obstruction. In the north versus the south, more patients were exposed to nephrotoxins or had urinary tract obstructions. 536 (13.0%) patients with community-acquired AKI had indications for renal replacement therapy (RRT), but only 347 (64.7%) of them received RRT. Rates of timely diagnosis and appropriate use of RRT were higher in regions with higher per capita gross domestic product. All-cause in-hospital mortality was 7.3% (295 of 4,068). Delayed AKI recognition and being located in northern China were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality, and referral to nephrology providers was an independent protective factor. Possible misclassification of AKI and community-acquired AKI due to nonstandard definitions and missing data for serum creatinine. The features of community-acquired AKI varied substantially in different regions of China and were closely

Nuclear medicine practice in Japan. A report of the 5th nationwide survey in 2002

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koizumi, Kiyoshi; Inoue, Tomio

2004-01-01

The Subcommittee on Survey of Nuclear Medicine Practice in Japan has performed a nationwide survey of nuclear medicine practice every five years since 1982 to provide detailed information on its current status. Questionnaires were sent to every institution known to the Japan Radioisotope Association to provide nuclear medicine examinations. The questionnaires address the number and kind of nuclear medicine examinations performed as well as the kind and dose of the radiopharmaceuticals used during the month of June 2002. The annual number of total or specific examinations was then estimated. Of the institutions sent questionnaires, 1,204 were for in vivo study, 124 were for in vitro study, and 36 were for positron emission tomography (PET) study. Out of these, 95.8% answered them. A total of 1,697 gamma cameras were installed in 1,160 facilities, of which 50% were dual-head cameras. The estimated total annual number of examinations expressed by the number of administered radiopharmaceuticals was 1.60 million, similar to that of the previous survey (1997). The frequency of study with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) increased to 40%, from 30% in the previous survey. The scintigraphy most frequently performed was bone (35%), followed by myocardium (24%) and brain perfusion (12%). All showed a continuous increase over the past 20 years. Tumor imaging, however, fell from third to fourth place. The most commonly used radiopharmaceutical for each scintigraphy was 99m Tc-HMDP for bone, 201 Tl-chloride for myocardium, 67 Ga-citrate for tumor, and 123 1-IMP for brain. A total of 29,376 PET studies were performed yearly. Among them, 18 F-FDG rapidly increased 3.7-fold. 131 I therapy for thyroid cancer and hyperthyroidism was conducted yearly in 1,647 and 3,347 patients, respectively. A total of 31.35 million in vitro radioassays were carried out yearly, the number of which has been decreasing continuously since 1992. It was proved that the content of nuclear

Nationwide survey on pediatric CT among children of public health and school nurses to examine a possibility for a follow-up study on radiation effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, K.; Ban, N.; Ojima, M.; Yoshinaga, S.; Akahane, K.; Fujii, K.; Toyota, M.; Hamada, F.; Kouriyama, C.; Akiba, S.; Kunugita, N.; Shimada, Y.; Kai, M.

2011-01-01

A nationwide survey was conducted in Japan on paediatric CT among children of public health and school nurses to examine a possibility for a follow-up study on radiation effects. A survey questionnaire was sent out to 3173 public primary and junior high schools and 317 public health centres during October to December in 2009. According to the collected responses, 410 (16.2 %) children received the CT scans and the total number of CT scans was 585. Most of respondents expressed a high interest in radiation health effects and an intent to participate in the epidemiological study that will follow-up the health conditions of children. This study provides information to discuss the feasibility of the epidemiological study on health effects in children who received CT scans. (authors)

Calibration of individual dosemeters by using external beams of photon radiation. A nationwide survey among Personal Dosimetry Services, authorized by CSN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brosed, A.; Ginjaume, M.

1995-12-01

A nationwide survey in 1995 among Personal Dosimetry Services, authorized by the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), has led the Spanish Dosimetry Laboratories to review and update the dosimetric conversion coefficients and correction factors in use in Spain since 1987. The recommendations of the ICRU Report 47(1992) are discussed and adopted. In addition differences in back-scattering form IRCU tissue and PMMA phantoms are analysed. Analytical functions used to calculate conversion coefficients and back-scattering correction factors due to the use of different phantom materials are presented, together with the adopted final values. Firstly, the above mentioned parameters are applied to ISO narrow spectra series, which are discribed in this report. Secondly, differences between 1995 and 1987 values are also shown. (Author)

Probabilistic Logical Characterization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermanns, Holger; Parma, Augusto; Segala, Roberto

2011-01-01

Probabilistic automata exhibit both probabilistic and non-deterministic choice. They are therefore a powerful semantic foundation for modeling concurrent systems with random phenomena arising in many applications ranging from artificial intelligence, security, systems biology to performance...... modeling. Several variations of bisimulation and simulation relations have proved to be useful as means to abstract and compare different automata. This paper develops a taxonomy of logical characterizations of these relations on image-finite and image-infinite probabilistic automata....

Probabilistic metric spaces

CERN Document Server

Schweizer, B

2005-01-01

Topics include special classes of probabilistic metric spaces, topologies, and several related structures, such as probabilistic normed and inner-product spaces. 1983 edition, updated with 3 new appendixes. Includes 17 illustrations.

Improved Point-source Detection in Crowded Fields Using Probabilistic Cataloging

Science.gov (United States)

Portillo, Stephen K. N.; Lee, Benjamin C. G.; Daylan, Tansu; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

2017-10-01

Cataloging is challenging in crowded fields because sources are extremely covariant with their neighbors and blending makes even the number of sources ambiguous. We present the first optical probabilistic catalog, cataloging a crowded (˜0.1 sources per pixel brighter than 22nd mag in F606W) Sloan Digital Sky Survey r-band image from M2. Probabilistic cataloging returns an ensemble of catalogs inferred from the image and thus can capture source-source covariance and deblending ambiguities. By comparing to a traditional catalog of the same image and a Hubble Space Telescope catalog of the same region, we show that our catalog ensemble better recovers sources from the image. It goes more than a magnitude deeper than the traditional catalog while having a lower false-discovery rate brighter than 20th mag. We also present an algorithm for reducing this catalog ensemble to a condensed catalog that is similar to a traditional catalog, except that it explicitly marginalizes over source-source covariances and nuisance parameters. We show that this condensed catalog has a similar completeness and false-discovery rate to the catalog ensemble. Future telescopes will be more sensitive, and thus more of their images will be crowded. Probabilistic cataloging performs better than existing software in crowded fields and so should be considered when creating photometric pipelines in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope era.

Probabilistic record linkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona

2016-06-01

Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Clinic characteristics of psoriasis in China: a nationwide survey in over 12000 patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kun; Wang, Gang; Jin, Hongzhong; Xu, Jinhua; Zhu, Xuejun; Zheng, Min; Gu, Heng

2017-07-11

Psoriasis is a worldwide chronic inflammatory disease, involving both skin and joints. In order to characterize psoriasis in Han Chinese population, we conducted this nationwide prospective and hospital based survey, in which 56 hospitals with departments of dermatology participated, located in 33 cities across China. A total of 12,031 outpatients with psoriasis were registered during 2009 to 2010, which the data was collected by standard questionnaires. The main data acquisition included demographics, family history, disease status and other comorbidities. Physical and dermatological examination, including body surface area (BSA) and psoriasis area severity index (PASI) were applied to evaluate the disease severity. Descriptive statistics, 2 tailed t-test and chi-square test were used appropriately for the statistical analysis. From the study, we found that the male and female ratio of the patients was 1.49:1. Mean age of onset was 30.2 ± 14.5 years for males and 27.1 ± 15.6 years for females (P psoriasis and the majority was psoriasis vulgaris (96.5%). Among 12,031 patients, 23.1% had a family history of psoriasis,16.1% had comorbidities, and 29.9% had nail changes. The most important aggravation factor was season change (60.2%), followed by psychological stress (34.5%), and there significant differences between genders on trigger factors. In conclusion, this study characterizing psoriasis in Han Chinese population, could be used as basic data for future study.

Diagnostic criteria, clinical features, and incidence of thyroid storm based on nationwide surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Akamizu, Takashi; Satoh, Tetsurou; Isozaki, Osamu; Suzuki, Atsushi; Wakino, Shu; Iburi, Tadao; Tsuboi, Kumiko; Monden, Tsuyoshi; Kouki, Tsuyoshi; Otani, Hajime; Teramukai, Satoshi; Uehara, Ritei; Nakamura, Yosikazu; Nagai, Masaki; Mori, Masatomo

2012-07-01

/dL. TS is still a life-threatening disorder with more than 10% mortality in Japan. We present newly formulated diagnostic criteria for TS and clarify its clinical features, prognosis, and incidence based on nationwide surveys in Japan. This information will help diagnose TS and in understanding the factors contributing to mortality and irreversible complications.

2000 LEPC Survey

Science.gov (United States)

This is the summary report of the 1999 nationwide Local Emergency Planning Committee survey, released in May 2000. It measured their levels of compliance and proactivity, roles in prevention and counter-terrorism, communication, and response plans.

On the Measurement and Properties of Ambiguity in Probabilistic Expectations

Science.gov (United States)

Pickett, Justin T.; Loughran, Thomas A.; Bushway, Shawn

2015-01-01

Survey respondents' probabilistic expectations are now widely used in many fields to study risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and behavior. Researchers have developed several methods to account for the fact that the probability of an event may be more ambiguous for some respondents than others, but few prior studies have empirically…

Associations of Topics of Discussion on Twitter With Survey Measures of Attitudes, Knowledge, and Behaviors Related to Zika: Probabilistic Study in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Farhadloo, Mohsen; Winneg, Kenneth; Chan, Man-Pui Sally; Hall Jamieson, Kathleen; Albarracin, Dolores

2018-02-09

Recent outbreaks of Zika virus around the world led to increased discussions about this issue on social media platforms such as Twitter. These discussions may provide useful information about attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of the population regarding issues that are important for public policy. We sought to identify the associations of the topics of discussions on Twitter and survey measures of Zika-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors, not solely based upon the volume of such discussions but by analyzing the content of conversations using probabilistic techniques. Using probabilistic topic modeling with US county and week as the unit of analysis, we analyzed the content of Twitter online communications to identify topics related to the reported attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors captured in a national representative survey (N=33,193) of the US adult population over 33 weeks. Our analyses revealed topics related to "congress funding for Zika," "microcephaly," "Zika-related travel discussions," "insect repellent," "blood transfusion technology," and "Zika in Miami" were associated with our survey measures of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors observed over the period of the study. Our results demonstrated that it is possible to uncover topics of discussions from Twitter communications that are associated with the Zika-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of populations over time. Social media data can be used as a complementary source of information alongside traditional data sources to gauge the patterns of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors in a population. ©Mohsen Farhadloo, Kenneth Winneg, Man-Pui Sally Chan, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Dolores Albarracin. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 09.02.2018.

West Nile Virus Seroprevalence in the Greek Population in 2013: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Pournaras, Spyros; Mavrouli, Maria; Marka, Andriani; Tserkezou, Persefoni; Baka, Agoritsa; Billinis, Charalambos; Katsioulis, Antonios; Psaroulaki, Anna; Papa, Anna; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Mamuris, Zissis; Tsakris, Athanasios; Kremastinou, Jenny

2015-01-01

Cases of West Nile Virus (WNV) disease were recorded for three consecutive years in Greece following the year 2010 outbreak. A cross-sectional serologic survey was conducted to estimate the WNV seroprevalence and assess the ratio of infection to neuroinvasive disease. A stratified left-over sampling methodology was used including age and residence strata. A total of 3,962 serum samples was collected and tested for WNV Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies by Enzyme–Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). All positive samples were further tested by Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT) and WNV Immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies. WNV IgG antibodies were detected in 82 samples and 61 were also positive in PRNT representing a weighted seroprevalence of 2.1% (95% C.I.: 1.7–2.6) and 1.5% (95% C.I.: 1.2–2.0), respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that seroprevalence was associated with age and residence. The overall ratio of neuroinvasive disease to infected persons was estimated at 1:376 (95% C.I.: 1:421–1:338), while the elderly people had the highest ratio. This nationwide study provided valuable data regarding the epidemiology of WNV in Greece based on the fact that elderly people have higher risk of being both infected and having severe disease. PMID:26605539

An Australian nationwide survey on medicinal cannabis use for epilepsy: History of antiepileptic drug treatment predicts medicinal cannabis use.

Science.gov (United States)

Suraev, Anastasia S; Todd, Lisa; Bowen, Michael T; Allsop, David J; McGregor, Iain S; Ireland, Carol; Lintzeris, Nicholas

2017-05-01

Epilepsy Action Australia conducted an Australian nationwide online survey seeking opinions on and experiences with the use of cannabis-based products for the treatment of epilepsy. The survey was promoted via the Epilepsy Action Australia's main website, on their Facebook page, and by word of mouth. The survey consisted of 39 questions assessing demographics, clinical factors, including diagnosis and seizure types, and experiences with and opinions towards cannabis use in epilepsy. A total of 976 responses met the inclusion criteria. Results show that 15% of adults with epilepsy and 13% of parents/guardians of children with epilepsy were currently using, or had previously used, cannabis products to treat epilepsy. Of those with a history of cannabis product use, 90% of adults and 71% of parents reported success in reducing seizure frequency after commencing cannabis products. The main reasons for medicinal cannabis use were to manage treatment-resistant epilepsy and to obtain a more favorable side-effect profile compared to standard antiepileptic drugs. The number of past antiepileptic drugs tried was a significant predictor of medicinal cannabis use in both adults and children with epilepsy. Fifty-six percent of adults with epilepsy and 62% of parents/guardians of children with epilepsy expressed willingness to participate in clinical trials of cannabinoids. This survey provides insight into the use of cannabis products for epilepsy, in particular some of the likely factors influencing use, as well as novel insights into the experiences of and attitudes towards medicinal cannabis in people with epilepsy in the Australian community. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "Cannabinoids and Epilepsy". Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disjunctive Probabilistic Modal Logic is Enough for Bisimilarity on Reactive Probabilistic Systems

OpenAIRE

Bernardo, Marco; Miculan, Marino

2016-01-01

Larsen and Skou characterized probabilistic bisimilarity over reactive probabilistic systems with a logic including true, negation, conjunction, and a diamond modality decorated with a probabilistic lower bound. Later on, Desharnais, Edalat, and Panangaden showed that negation is not necessary to characterize the same equivalence. In this paper, we prove that the logical characterization holds also when conjunction is replaced by disjunction, with negation still being not necessary. To this e...

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

Science.gov (United States)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.

2010-01-01

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

The challenge of comprehensively mapping children's health in a nation-wide health survey: Design of the German KiGGS-Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schlack Robert

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background From May 2003 to May 2006, the Robert Koch Institute conducted the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS. Aim of this first nationwide interview and examination survey was to collect comprehensive data on the health status of children and adolescents aged 0 to 17 years. Methods/Design Participants were enrolled in two steps: first, 167 study locations (sample points were chosen; second, subjects were randomly selected from the official registers of local residents. The survey involved questionnaires filled in by parents and parallel questionnaires for children aged 11 years and older, physical examinations and tests, and a computer assisted personal interview performed by study physicians. A wide range of blood and urine testing was carried out at central laboratories. A total of 17 641 children and adolescents were surveyed – 8985 boys and 8656 girls. The proportion of sample neutral drop-outs was 5.3%. The response rate was 66.6%. Discussion The response rate showed little variation between age groups and sexes, but marked variation between resident aliens and Germans, between inhabitants of cities with a population of 100 000 or more and sample points with fewer inhabitants, as well as between the old West German states and the former East German states. By analysing the short non-responder questionnaires it was proven that the collected data give comprehensive and nationally representative evidence on the health status of children and adolescents aged 0 to 17 years.

Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

Duplicate Detection in Probabilistic Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Panse, Fabian; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander; Ritter, Norbert

2009-01-01

Collected data often contains uncertainties. Probabilistic databases have been proposed to manage uncertain data. To combine data from multiple autonomous probabilistic databases, an integration of probabilistic data has to be performed. Until now, however, data integration approaches have focused

Workplace Victimization and Discrimination in China: A Nationwide Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Huiping

2017-09-01

Workplace victimization and discrimination have been intensively studied in the West, especially on the antecedents and consequences of this phenomenon. Surprisingly, little is known about the incidence and associated health problems of workplace victimization and discrimination in contemporary China. Using a representative nationwide sample of 1,138 Chinese employees conducted in 2015, this study attempted to estimate the prevalence, risk factors, and associated consequences of workplace victimization and discrimination in China. It is found that the prevalence rate of preceding 5-year workplace discrimination and victimization was 33% and 12.9%, respectively. Male employees who perceived higher work gains were less likely to experience workplace victimization and those who had higher career efficacy and unemployment anxiety were more likely to experience job discrimination or victimization. Female employees who received tertiary education were less likely to experience job discrimination and being married tended not to experience workplace victimization. Perceived job discrimination had negative impact on male employees' job satisfaction as well as on female employees' happiness. The implications of these findings are finally discussed in the Chinese context.

The seventh nationwide epidemiological survey for chronic pancreatitis in Japan: clinical significance of smoking habit in Japanese patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirota, Morihisa; Shimosegawa, Tooru; Masamune, Atsushi; Kikuta, Kazuhiro; Kume, Kiyoshi; Hamada, Shin; Kanno, Atsushi; Kimura, Kenji; Tsuji, Ichiro; Kuriyama, Shinichi

2014-01-01

A nationwide survey was conducted to clarify the epidemiological features of patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) in Japan. In the first survey, both the prevalence and the incidence of CP in 2011 were estimated. In the second survey, the clinicoepidemiological features of the patients were clarified by mailed questionnaires. Patients were diagnosed by the Japanese diagnostic criteria for chronic pancreatitis 2009. The estimated annual prevalence and incidence of CP in 2011 were 52.4/100,000 and 14.0/100,000, respectively. The sex ratio (male/female) of patients was 4.6, with a mean age of 62.3 years. Alcoholic (67.5%) was the most common and idiopathic (20.0%) was the second most common cause of CP. Comorbidity with diabetes mellitus (DM) and pancreatic calcifications (PC) occurred more frequent in ever smokers independently of their drinking status. Among patients without drinking habit, the incidences of DM and PC were significantly higher in ever smokers than in never smokers. The multiple logistic regression analysis revealed smoking was an independent factor of DM and PC in CP patients: DM, Odds ratio (OR) 1.644, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.202 to 2.247 (P = 0.002): PC, OR 2.010, 95% CI 1.458 to 2.773 (P smoking was not identified as an independent factor for the appearance of abdominal pain by this analysis. The prevalence of Japanese patients with CP has been increasing. Smoking was identified as an independent factor related to DM and PC in Japanese CP patients. Copyright © 2014 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Confluence reduction for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

In this presentation we introduce a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We proved that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To

Patient Safety Activity Under the Social Insurance Medical Fee Schedule in Japan: An Overview of the 2010 Nationwide Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirose, Masahiro; Kawamura, Toshihiko; Igawa, Mikio; Imanaka, Yuichi

2017-11-16

Little is known about patient safety performance under the social insurance medical fee schedule in Japan. The Health Ministry in Japan introduced the preferential patient safety countermeasure fee (PPSCF) to promote patient safety in 2006 and revised the PPSCF system in 2010. This study aims to address the patient safety performance status at hospitals implementing the PPSCF. A nationwide questionnaire survey targeting 2674 hospitals with the PPSCF was performed in 2010 to 2011. The 627 participant hospitals were divided into the following three groups: 178 hospitals implementing PPSCF 1 with 400 beds or more (group A), 286 hospitals implementing PPSCF 1 with 399 beds or fewer (group B), and 163 hospitals implementing PPSCF 2 (group C). The mean numbers (standard errors) of patient safety managers were 1.45 (0.07) in group A, 1.12 (0.04) in group B, and 0.37 (0.12) in group C (P fee schedule in Japan.

Factors affecting occupational exposure to needlestick and sharps injuries among dentists in Taiwan: a nationwide survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsin-Chung Cheng

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although the risks of needlestick and sharps injuries (NSIs for dentists are well recognized, most papers published only described the frequency of occupational exposure to NSIs. Less has been reported assessing factors contributing to exposure to NSIs. The purpose of this study was to update the epidemiology of NSIs among dentists in Taiwan and identify factors affecting NSIs in order to find preventive strategies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A nationwide survey was conducted in dentists at 60 hospitals and 340 clinics in Taiwan. The survey included questions about factors supposedly affecting exposure to NSIs, such as dentist and facility characteristics, knowledge and attitudes about infectious diseases, and practices related to infection control. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the association between risk factors and exposure to NSIs. In total, 434 (74.8% of 580 dentists returned the survey questionnaires, and 100 (23.0% reported that they had experienced more than one NSI per week. Our data showed that the risk of occupational NSIs is similarly heightened by an older age (odds ratio [OR], 3.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.62-6.25, more years in practice (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.41-4.69, working in clinics (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.08-2.77, exhibiting less compliance with infection-control procedures (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.04-3.18, having insufficient knowledge of blood-borne pathogens (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.04-2.67, and being more worried about being infected by blood-borne pathogens (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.05-3.13. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: High rates of NSIs and low compliance with infection-control procedures highly contribute to the chance of acquiring a blood-borne pathogen infection and threaten occupational safety. This study reveals the possible affecting factors and helps in designing prevention strategies for occupational exposure to NSIs.

Employment prospects and trends for gastroenterology trainees in Canada: A nationwide survey

Science.gov (United States)

Razik, Roshan; Cino, Maria; Nguyen, Geoffrey C

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Many gastroenterology (GI) trainees face a variety of barriers to stable employment and are finding it increasingly difficult to secure employment in their chosen field. OBJECTIVE: To elucidate factors that contribute to the burden of unemployment and underemployment, and to examine solutions that may remedy this growing problem in the field of GI. METHODS: A nationwide survey of current, incoming and recently graduated individuals of GI training programs in Canada was conducted. Trainees in pediatric GI programs and those enrolled in sub-specialty programs within GI were also included. RESULTS: The response rate was 62%, with 93% of respondents enrolled in an adult GI training program. Many (73%) respondents planned to pursue further subspecialty training and the majority (53%) reported concerns regarding job security after graduation as contributory factors. Only 35% of respondents were confident that they would secure employment within six months of completing their training. Regarding barriers to employment, the most cited perceived reasons were lack of funding (both from hospitals and provincial governments) and senior physicians who continue to practice beyond retirement years. Sixty-nine per cent perceived a greater need for career guidance and 49% believed there were too many GI trainees relative to the current job market in their area. Most residents had a contingency plan if they remained unemployed >18 months, which often included moving to another province or to the United States. CONCLUSION: GI trainees throughout Canada reported substantial concerns about securing employment, citing national retirement trends and lack of funding as primary barriers to employment. Although these issues are not easily modifiable, certain problems should be targeted including optimizing training quotas, tailoring career guidance to the needs of the population, and emphasizing credentialing and quality control in endoscopy. PMID:24199210

Employment prospects and trends for gastroenterology trainees in Canada: a nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Razik, Roshan; Cino, Maria; Nguyen, Geoffrey C

2013-11-01

Many gastroenterology (GI) trainees face a variety of barriers to stable employment and are finding it increasingly difficult to secure employment in their chosen field. To elucidate factors that contribute to the burden of unemployment and underemployment, and to examine solutions that may remedy this growing problem in the field of GI. A nationwide survey of current, incoming and recently graduated individuals of GI training programs in Canada was conducted. Trainees in pediatric GI programs and those enrolled in subspecialty programs within GI were also included. The response rate was 62%, with 93% of respondents enrolled in an adult GI training program. Many (73%) respondents planned to pursue further subspecialty training and the majority (53%) reported concerns regarding job security after graduation as contributory factors. Only 35% of respondents were confident that they would secure employment within six months of completing their training. Regarding barriers to employment, the most cited perceived reasons were lack of funding (both from hospitals and provincial governments) and senior physicians who continue to practice beyond retirement years. Sixty-nine per cent perceived a greater need for career guidance and 49% believed there were too many GI trainees relative to the current job market in their area. Most residents had a contingency plan if they remained unemployed >18 months, which often included moving to another province or to the United States. GI trainees throughout Canada reported substantial concerns about securing employment, citing national retirement trends and lack of funding as primary barriers to employment. Although these issues are not easily modifiable, certain problems should be targeted including optimizing training quotas, tailoring career guidance to the needs of the population, and emphasizing credentialing and quality control in endoscopy.

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

2004-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

Awareness about past diagnosis and treatment history: nationwide survey of childhood cancer survivors and their parents.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Eunmi; Park, Hyeon Jin; Baek, Hee Jo; Hwang, Pyoung Han; Lee, Young Ho; Park, Byung-Kiu; Kim, Young So; Shim, Hye-Young; Shin, Dongwook; Yang, Hyung Kook; Park, Jong Hyock; Park, Kyung Duk

2017-10-01

To assess the awareness of past medical history and long-term care issues of childhood cancer survivors (CCS) in Korea. A nationwide survey was conducted on CCS and their parents in 10 regional cancer centers in Korea. Answers regarding cancer diagnosis and treatment history were compared with the treatment summary and categorized into three ('specific,' 'general,' and 'no') or two ('yes' and 'no') groups. Out of 343 contacts, 293 dyads completed the survey, and 281 dyads were analyzed. Awareness of cancer diagnosis was mostly specific for parents (76.5%) and CCS (35.2%). Awareness of anti-cancer treatment exposure was mostly general (84.6% for surgery, 67.9% for chemotherapy, and 53.9% for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation) rather than specific. In particular, more than half of the parents were not aware of the exposure to cardiotoxic agents (72.9%) or radiation therapy (56.3%). Providing information about long-term side effects and prevention of secondary cancer was significantly correlated only with more concern and more follow-up visits (P ≤ 0.001, respectively), without correlation with more specific awareness of exposure to cardiotoxic agents or radiation. Most of the parents of CCS were not aware of treatment-related risk factors necessary for long-term care. Providing information was significantly correlated with more concern and more follow-up visits, without improving corresponding knowledge about their past medical history. Effort aimed towards improving awareness about risk factors, the manner of providing information, and the patient referral system within which we use this information is warranted. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Psychosocial profiles of children with achondroplasia in terms of their short stature-related stress: a nationwide survey in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishimura, Naoko; Hanaki, Keiichi

2014-11-01

To assess psychosocial profiles of children with achondroplasia using a nationwide survey. Achondroplasia, showing short stature and disproportionately short limbs, causes physical inconvenience such as difficulty in reaching high objects. It is, however, still controversial whether the condition is associated with psychological problems, especially in childhood. A cross-sectional descriptive design was employed. To evaluate psychosocial profiles and adaptation processes in children with achondroplasia, we developed an inventory of scales based on the psychological stress model of which conceptual framework was comprised of stressor, coping process, coping resource and adaptation outcome domains. Participants were recruited nationwide through the largest advocacy support group for achondroplasia in Japan. Of the 130 group members, 73 X-ray-diagnosed patients, aged 8-18 years, completed the inventory of questionnaires to be analysed. As for the stressor domain, patients experienced short stature-related unpleasant experiences more frequently (z-score: +1·3 in average, +3·9 in physical inconvenience). Nevertheless, these experiences had little effect on the coping process (threat appraisal: -0·2, control appraisal: +0·1) and the adaptation outcome (stress response: +0·3, self-concept: 0·0). Interestingly, self-efficacy in the coping resource domain was noticeably increased (+3·1) and was strongly correlated with most variables in the coping process and in adaptation outcome domains. Although the children with achondroplasia experienced more short stature-related stressors, there was no evidence of any psychosocial maladaptation. This finding suggests that coping process as well as coping resources such as self-efficacy could be important targets for promoting psychological adjustment in children with achondroplasia. To help children with achondroplasia adapt socially, nurses and other healthcare providers should routinely assess their psychological adaptation

Nationwide survey of work environment, work-life balance and burnout among psychiatrists in Japan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wakako Umene-Nakano

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Psychiatry has been consistently shown to be a profession characterised by 'high-burnout'; however, no nationwide surveys on this topic have been conducted in Japan. AIMS: The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of burnout and to ascertain the relationship between work environment satisfaction, work-life balance satisfaction and burnout among psychiatrists working in medical schools in Japan. METHOD: We mailed anonymous questionnaires to all 80 psychiatry departments in medical schools throughout Japan. Work-life satisfaction, work-environment satisfaction and social support assessments, as well as the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI, were used. RESULTS: Sixty psychiatric departments (75.0% responded, and 704 psychiatrists provided answers to the assessments and MBI. Half of the respondents (n = 311, 46.0% experienced difficulty with their work-life balance. Based on the responses to the MBI, 21.0% of the respondents had a high level of emotional exhaustion, 12.0% had a high level of depersonalisation, and 72.0% had a low level of personal accomplishment. Receiving little support, experiencing difficulty with work-life balance, and having less work-environment satisfaction were significantly associated with higher emotional exhaustion. A higher number of nights worked per month was significantly associated with higher depersonalisation. CONCLUSIONS: A low level of personal accomplishment was quite prevalent among Japanese psychiatrists compared with the results of previous studies. Poor work-life balance was related to burnout, and social support was noted to mitigate the impact of burnout.

Nationwide Survey of Work Environment, Work-Life Balance and Burnout among Psychiatrists in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Umene-Nakano, Wakako; Kato, Takahiro A.; Kikuchi, Saya; Tateno, Masaru; Fujisawa, Daisuke; Hoshuyama, Tsutomu; Nakamura, Jun

2013-01-01

Background Psychiatry has been consistently shown to be a profession characterised by ‘high-burnout’; however, no nationwide surveys on this topic have been conducted in Japan. Aims The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of burnout and to ascertain the relationship between work environment satisfaction, work-life balance satisfaction and burnout among psychiatrists working in medical schools in Japan. Method We mailed anonymous questionnaires to all 80 psychiatry departments in medical schools throughout Japan. Work-life satisfaction, work-environment satisfaction and social support assessments, as well as the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI), were used. Results Sixty psychiatric departments (75.0%) responded, and 704 psychiatrists provided answers to the assessments and MBI. Half of the respondents (n = 311, 46.0%) experienced difficulty with their work-life balance. Based on the responses to the MBI, 21.0% of the respondents had a high level of emotional exhaustion, 12.0% had a high level of depersonalisation, and 72.0% had a low level of personal accomplishment. Receiving little support, experiencing difficulty with work-life balance, and having less work-environment satisfaction were significantly associated with higher emotional exhaustion. A higher number of nights worked per month was significantly associated with higher depersonalisation. Conclusions A low level of personal accomplishment was quite prevalent among Japanese psychiatrists compared with the results of previous studies. Poor work-life balance was related to burnout, and social support was noted to mitigate the impact of burnout. PMID:23418435

Nationwide survey of work environment, work-life balance and burnout among psychiatrists in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Umene-Nakano, Wakako; Kato, Takahiro A; Kikuchi, Saya; Tateno, Masaru; Fujisawa, Daisuke; Hoshuyama, Tsutomu; Nakamura, Jun

2013-01-01

Psychiatry has been consistently shown to be a profession characterised by 'high-burnout'; however, no nationwide surveys on this topic have been conducted in Japan. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of burnout and to ascertain the relationship between work environment satisfaction, work-life balance satisfaction and burnout among psychiatrists working in medical schools in Japan. We mailed anonymous questionnaires to all 80 psychiatry departments in medical schools throughout Japan. Work-life satisfaction, work-environment satisfaction and social support assessments, as well as the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI), were used. Sixty psychiatric departments (75.0%) responded, and 704 psychiatrists provided answers to the assessments and MBI. Half of the respondents (n = 311, 46.0%) experienced difficulty with their work-life balance. Based on the responses to the MBI, 21.0% of the respondents had a high level of emotional exhaustion, 12.0% had a high level of depersonalisation, and 72.0% had a low level of personal accomplishment. Receiving little support, experiencing difficulty with work-life balance, and having less work-environment satisfaction were significantly associated with higher emotional exhaustion. A higher number of nights worked per month was significantly associated with higher depersonalisation. A low level of personal accomplishment was quite prevalent among Japanese psychiatrists compared with the results of previous studies. Poor work-life balance was related to burnout, and social support was noted to mitigate the impact of burnout.

Results of a nationwide biogas measurement programme; Ergebnisse des bundesweiten Biogasmessprogramms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weiland, P. [Bundesforschungsanstalt fuer Landwirtschaft (FAL), Braunschweig (Germany); Rieger, C.; Ehrmann, T.; Helffrich, D.; Kissel, R.; Melcher, F.

2005-07-01

Sixty biogas plants selected for representativeness were assessed on the basis of uniform technical and scientific criteria in a nationwide survey aimed at obtaining a current picture of the performance, functioning and economic efficiency of modern biogas plants. Every plant was monitored over a period of at least 12 months for all relevant process and operating data as well as for quantities, types and composition of material streams and the plant's overall energy efficiency in order to arrive at a comparative assessment. The survey also included a search for functional or technical weak points and a calculation of the specific costs of gas production.

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

2003-01-01

Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

2003-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

The burden of selected chronic non-communicable diseases and their risk factors in Malawi: nationwide STEPS survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelias P Msyamboza

Full Text Available Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs are becoming significant causes of morbidity and mortality, particularly in sub-Saharan African countries, although local, high-quality data to inform evidence-based policies are lacking.To determine the magnitude of NCDs and their risk factors in Malawi.Using the WHO STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance, a population-based, nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted between July and September 2009 on participants aged 25-64 years. Socio-demographic and behaviour risk factors were collected in Step 1. Physical anthropometric measurements and blood pressure were documented in Step 2. Blood cholesterol and fasting blood glucose were measured in Step 3.A total of 5,206 adults (67% females were surveyed. Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and raised blood pressure (BP were more frequent in males than females, 25% vs 3%, 30% vs 4% and 37% vs 29%. Overweight, physical inactivity and raised cholesterol were more common in females than males, 28% vs 16%, 13% vs 6% and 11% vs 6%. Tobacco smoking was more common in rural than urban areas 11% vs 7%, and overweight and physical inactivity more common in urban than rural areas 39% vs 22% and 24% vs 9%, all with p<0.05. Overall (both sexes prevalence of tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, overweight and physical inactivity was 14%, 17%, 22%, 10% and prevalence of raised BP, fasting blood sugar and cholesterol was 33%, 6% and 9% respectively. These data could be useful in the formulation and advocacy of NCD policy and action plan in Malawi.

A Nationwide Survey of Environmental Protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Erdos & Morgan, Inc., New York, NY.

This study was made in two phases. Phase I was conducted to obtain extensive information about "The Wall Street Journal's" subscribers on their business activities, purchasing influence, involvement in pollution control, personal resources, etc. Those personally active in anti-pollution programs received a second survey dealing with environmental…

Students’ difficulties in probabilistic problem-solving

Science.gov (United States)

Arum, D. P.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Pramudya, I.

2018-03-01

There are many errors can be identified when students solving mathematics problems, particularly in solving the probabilistic problem. This present study aims to investigate students’ difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It focuses on analyzing and describing students errors during solving the problem. This research used the qualitative method with case study strategy. The subjects in this research involve ten students of 9th grade that were selected by purposive sampling. Data in this research involve students’ probabilistic problem-solving result and recorded interview regarding students’ difficulties in solving the problem. Those data were analyzed descriptively using Miles and Huberman steps. The results show that students have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem and can be divided into three categories. First difficulties relate to students’ difficulties in understanding the probabilistic problem. Second, students’ difficulties in choosing and using appropriate strategies for solving the problem. Third, students’ difficulties with the computational process in solving the problem. Based on the result seems that students still have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It means that students have not able to use their knowledge and ability for responding probabilistic problem yet. Therefore, it is important for mathematics teachers to plan probabilistic learning which could optimize students probabilistic thinking ability.

[Physician Shortage: How to Prevent Generation Y From Staying Away - Results of a Nationwide Survey].

Science.gov (United States)

Kasch, R; Engelhardt, M; Förch, M; Merk, H; Walcher, F; Fröhlich, S

2016-04-01

Medical students' attitudes and expectations about their future working life are changing. To hire the best talents from Generation Y, hospitals must pay attention to these factors to make working in patient care more attractive. However, little detailed knowledge about the professional and career expectations of today's medical students is available to date. In a nationwide online survey, a total of 9079 medical students from all German medical faculties returned the questionnaire. Twenty-one questions related to future career choices and work satisfaction, followed by 21 questions dealing with reasons for not working in patient care. Factor analysis yielded five factors: work-life balance, career, professional needs, working atmosphere, and prestige. A correlation analysis between these factors and respondents' socio-demographic data revealed significant correlations with sex, specialty choice, and marital/parental status. A correlation analysis with "reasons for not working in patient care" revealed that work-life balance, career, professional needs, and working atmosphere had high priority for both sexes. It is crucial to collect data on the work satisfaction of Generation Y, whose members are motivated and willing to perform in today's highly demanding work environment. However, sex-dependent/independent expectations must be met to make the medical profession more attractive, to overcome the Germany-wide shortage of physicians, and to attract young doctors to the hospitals. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A General Framework for Probabilistic Characterizing Formulae

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sack, Joshua; Zhang, Lijun

2012-01-01

Recently, a general framework on characteristic formulae was proposed by Aceto et al. It offers a simple theory that allows one to easily obtain characteristic formulae of many non-probabilistic behavioral relations. Our paper studies their techniques in a probabilistic setting. We provide...... a general method for determining characteristic formulae of behavioral relations for probabilistic automata using fixed-point probability logics. We consider such behavioral relations as simulations and bisimulations, probabilistic bisimulations, probabilistic weak simulations, and probabilistic forward...

A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Besterfield, G. H.

1987-01-01

A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.

Memristive Probabilistic Computing

KAUST Repository

Alahmadi, Hamzah

2017-10-01

In the era of Internet of Things and Big Data, unconventional techniques are rising to accommodate the large size of data and the resource constraints. New computing structures are advancing based on non-volatile memory technologies and different processing paradigms. Additionally, the intrinsic resiliency of current applications leads to the development of creative techniques in computations. In those applications, approximate computing provides a perfect fit to optimize the energy efficiency while compromising on the accuracy. In this work, we build probabilistic adders based on stochastic memristor. Probabilistic adders are analyzed with respect of the stochastic behavior of the underlying memristors. Multiple adder implementations are investigated and compared. The memristive probabilistic adder provides a different approach from the typical approximate CMOS adders. Furthermore, it allows for a high area saving and design exibility between the performance and power saving. To reach a similar performance level as approximate CMOS adders, the memristive adder achieves 60% of power saving. An image-compression application is investigated using the memristive probabilistic adders with the performance and the energy trade-off.

Questionnaire survey of treatment choice for breast cancer patients with brain metastasis in Japan. Results of a nationwide survey by the task force of the Japanese Breast Cancer Society

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsumoto, Koji; Ando, Masashi; Yamauchi, Chikako

2009-01-01

A nationwide survey was performed to investigate the current patterns of care for brain metastasis (BM) from breast cancer in Japan. A total of 351 survey questionnaires were sent to community or academic breast oncologists who were members of the Japanese Breast Cancer Society as of December 2005. The questionnaire consists of 40 multiple choice questions in eight categories. Of 240 institutions sent survey questionnaires, 161 (67.1%) answered; 60% of institutions answered with '<5' patients with BM every year; almost half (83 of 161) screened for BM in asymptomatic patients; surgical resection was rarely performed, as ∼75% of institutions (118 of 160 institutions) answered 'none or one case of surgery per year'; 27% (41 of 154) preferred stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) over whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) as the initial treatment in all cases, although ∼70% (100 of 154) of them answered 'depend on cases'. The preference for SRS over WBRT mainly depends on the impressions of breast oncologists about both safety (late normal tissue damage and dementia in WBRT) and efficacy (better local control by SRS). Eighty-one percent (117 of 144) of institutions did not limit the number of SRS sessions as far as technically applicable. SRS is widely used as the first choice for BM from breast cancer in Japan. Considerable numbers of Japanese breast oncologists prefer SRS over WBRT as the initial treatment for BM. A randomized trial comparing SRS and WBRT is warranted. (author)

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haenni, R.; Romeijn, J.-W.; Wheeler, G.; Williamson, J.

2009-01-01

While in principle probabilistic logics might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied at present. This is perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. However, we shall argue in this programmatic paper that several approaches

Probabilistic programmable quantum processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buzek, V.; Ziman, M.; Hillery, M.

2004-01-01

We analyze how to improve performance of probabilistic programmable quantum processors. We show how the probability of success of the probabilistic processor can be enhanced by using the processor in loops. In addition, we show that an arbitrary SU(2) transformations of qubits can be encoded in program state of a universal programmable probabilistic quantum processor. The probability of success of this processor can be enhanced by a systematic correction of errors via conditional loops. Finally, we show that all our results can be generalized also for qudits. (Abstract Copyright [2004], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

PROBABILISTIC RELATIONAL MODELS OF COMPLETE IL-SEMIRINGS

OpenAIRE

Tsumagari, Norihiro

2012-01-01

This paper studies basic properties of probabilistic multirelations which are generalized the semantic domain of probabilistic systems and then provides two probabilistic models of complete IL-semirings using probabilistic multirelations. Also it is shown that these models need not be models of complete idempotentsemirings.

A Comparison between the Second Korean Working Conditions Survey (KWCS and the First KWCS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young Sun Kim

2015-06-01

Conclusion: KWCS data included many aspects of working conditions as a nationwide sample. In addition, because this is a periodic nationwide survey, the labor force, working hours, harmful factor exposure, and the change in health problems characteristics according to the flow of time could be investigated. The information comparing the main results of the first survey conducted in 2006 and the second survey conducted in 2010 obtained through this study can be used as an important base material for the establishment of the national policy.

Use of hand hygiene agents as a surrogate marker of compliance in Hungarian long-term care facilities: first nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Szabó, Rita; Morvai, Júlia; Bellissimo-Rodrigues, Fernando; Pittet, Didier

2015-01-01

Hand hygiene practice is an important measure for preventing infections in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). However, low compliance with hand hygiene has been reported in a number of studies. The purpose of this study was to provide an overview of the first reference data collected on alcohol-based handrub (ABHR) and antiseptic soap consumption, as surrogate markers for hand hygiene compliance by healthcare workers (HCWs) in Hungarian LTCFs. The objective was to inform stakeholders on the need of hand hygiene improvement in these settings. Between 5 May and 30 September 2014, we conducted a nationwide, cross-sectional survey using a standardized self-administered questionnaire; all Hungarian LTCFs were eligible. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20.0 was used for data analysis. The questionnaire was completed by 354 LTCFs, representing 24 % of all Hungarian LTCFs. In total, the median consumption of ABHR and antimicrobial soap was 15.5 L (IQR, 0-800 L) and 60 L (IQR, 0-1,680 L) per LTCFs, and 2.2 mL (IQR, 0.4-9.1 mL) and 12.1 mL (IQR, 0.7-32.8 mL) per HCWs in 2013, respectively. The estimated number of hand hygiene actions was 0.6 hygienic handrub/HCW per day (IQR, 0-12.8/HCWs) and 2.4 hygienic handwashing/HCW per day (IQR, 0-21.9/HCWs; P = .001), respectively. This study suggests that non-compliance with hand hygiene is a significant problem in Hungarian LTCFs. Based on our results, there is an urgent need for a nationwide multimodal hand hygiene promotion strategy including education and performance monitoring and feedback in all LTCFs. Furthermore, monitoring of ABHR consumption constitute an additional component of the existing National Nosocomial Surveillance system.

Probabilistic safety analysis vs probabilistic fracture mechanics -relation and necessary merging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, Fred

1997-01-01

A comparison is made between some general features of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in its standard form. We conclude that: Result from PSA is a numerically expressed level of confidence in the system based on the state of current knowledge. It is thus not any objective measure of risk. It is important to carefully define the precise nature of the probabilistic statement and relate it to a well defined situation. Standardisation of PFM methods is necessary. PFM seems to be the only way to obtain estimates of the pipe break probability. Service statistics are of doubtful value because of scarcity of data and statistical inhomogeneity. Collection of service data should be directed towards the occurrence of growing cracks

Seroepidemiology of diphtheria and tetanus among children and young adults in Tajikistan: nationwide population-based survey, 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Khetsuriani, Nino; Zakikhany, Katherina; Jabirov, Shamsiddin; Saparova, Nargis; Ursu, Pavel; Wannemuehler, Kathleen; Wassilak, Steve; Efstratiou, Androulla; Martin, Rebecca

2013-10-01

Tajikistan had a major diphtheria outbreak (≈ 10,000 cases) in the 1990 s, which was controlled after nationwide immunization campaigns with diphtheria-tetanus toxoid in 1995 and 1996. Since 2000, only 52 diphtheria cases have been reported. However, in coverage surveys conducted in 2000 and 2005, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine coverage was lower than administratively reported estimates raising concerns about potential immunity gaps. To further assess population immunity to diphtheria in Tajikistan, diphtheria antibody testing was included in a large-scale nationwide serosurvey for vaccine-preventable diseases conducted in connection with a poliomyelitis outbreak in 2010. In addition, the serosurvey provided an opportunity to assess population immunity to tetanus. Residents of all regions of Tajikistan aged 1-24 years were included in the serosurvey implemented during September-October 2010. Participants were selected through stratified cluster sampling. Specimens were tested for diphtheria antibodies using a Vero cell neutralization assay and for tetanus antibodies using an anti-tetanus IgG ELISA. Antibody concentrations ≥ 0.1 IU/mL were considered seropositive. Overall, 51.4% (95% CI, 47.1%-55.6%) of participants were seropositive for diphtheria and 78.9% (95% CI, 74.7%-82.5%) were seropositive for tetanus. The lowest percentages of seropositivity for both diseases were observed among persons aged 10-19 years: diphtheria seropositivity was 37.1% (95% CI, 31.0%-43.7%) among 10-14 year-olds, and 35.3% (95% CI, 29.9%-41.1%) among 15-19 year-olds; tetanus seropositivity in respective age groups was 65.3% (95% CI, 58.4%-71.6%) and 70.1% (95% CI, 64.5%-75.2%). Population immunity for diphtheria in Tajikistan is low, particularly among 10-19 year-olds. Population immunity to tetanus is generally higher than for diphtheria, but is suboptimal among 10-19 year-olds. These findings highlight the need to improve routine immunization service delivery, and support a

Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Training in Schools Following 8 Years of Mandating Legislation in Denmark: A Nationwide Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Malta Hansen, Carolina; Zinckernagel, Line; Ersbøll, Annette Kjær; Tjørnhøj-Thomsen, Tine; Wissenberg, Mads; Lippert, Freddy Knudsen; Weeke, Peter; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Køber, Lars; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Folke, Fredrik

2017-03-14

School cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training has become mandatory in many countries, but whether legislation has translated into implementation of CPR training is largely unknown. We assessed CPR training of students following 8 years of legislative mandates in Denmark. A nationwide cross-sectional survey of Danish school leadership (n=1240) and ninth-grade homeroom teachers (n=1381) was carried out for school year 2013-2014. Qualitative interviews and the Theory of Planned Behavior were used to construct the survey. Logistic regression models were employed to identify factors associated with completed CPR training. Information from 63.1% of eligible schools was collected: 49.3% (n=611) of leadership and 48.2% (n=665) of teachers responded. According to teachers, 28.4% (95% CI 25.0% to 32.0%) and 10.3% (95% CI 8.1% to 12.8%) of eligible classes had completed CPR and automated external defibrillator training, respectively. Among leadership, 60.2% (95% CI 56.2% to 64.1%) reported CPR training had occurred during the 3 years prior to the survey. Factors associated with completed CPR training included believing other schools were conducting training (odds ratio [OR] 9.68 [95% CI 4.65-20.1]), awareness of mandating legislation (OR 4.19 [95% CI 2.65-6.62]), presence of a school CPR training coordinator (OR 3.01 [95% CI 1.84-4.92]), teacher feeling competent to conduct training (OR 2.78 [95% CI 1.74-4.45]), and having easy access to training material (OR 2.08 [95% CI 1.57-2.76]). Despite mandating legislation, school CPR training has not been successfully implemented. Completed CPR training was associated with believing other schools were conducting training, awareness of mandating legislation, presence of a school CPR training coordinator, teachers teacher feeling competent to conduct training, and having easy access to training material. Facilitating these factors may increase rates of school CPR training. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the

National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS) - NMVCCS XML Case Viewer

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Transportation — The National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVVCS) was a nationwide survey of crashes involving light passenger vehicles, with a focus on the factors related...

On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reif, J.H.

1984-01-01

This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity

National Survey of the Education of Teachers. Bulletin, 1933, No. 10. Volume V: Special Survey Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Frazier, Benjamin W.; Betts, Gilbert L.; Greenleaf, Walter J.; Waples, Douglas; Dearborn, Ned H.; Carney, Mabel; Alexander, Thomas

1935-01-01

The Seventy-first Congress authorized a survey of the education of teachers on a Nation-wide scope, conducted during the last 3 years. After the work of the survey was organized it was apparent that only a limited number of studies could be undertaken with the time and funds available. It was decided, therefore, to cooperate whenever possible with…

Epidemiology of adulthood drowning deaths in Bangladesh: Findings from a nationwide health and injury survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Hossain, Mohammad Jahangir; Biswas, Animesh; Mashreky, Saidur Rahman; Rahman, Fazlur; Rahman, Aminur

2017-01-01

Background: Annual global death due to drowning accounts for 372,000 lives, 90% of which occur in low and middle income countries. Life in Bangladesh exposes adults and children to may water bodies for daily household needs, and as a result drowning is common. In Bangladesh, due to lack of systemic data collection, drowning among adults is unknown; most research is focused on childhood drowning. The aim of the present study was to explore the epidemiology of adulthood drowning deaths in Bangladesh. Methodology: A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted from January to December in 2003 among 171,366 rural and urban households, with a sample of 819,429 individuals to determine the epidemiology of adulthood drowning in Bangladesh.   Results:   Annual fatal drowning incidence among adults was 5.85/100,000 individuals. Of these, 71.4% were male and 28.6% were female (RR 2.39). In total, 90% of the fatalities were from rural areas. Rural populations were also found to have a 8.58 times higher risk of drowning than those in urban areas. About 95% of drowning occurred in natural water bodies. About 61.6% of the deaths occurred at the scene followed by 33.5% at the home. Of the drowning fatalities, 67% took place in water bodies within 100 meters of the household. Among the drowning fatalities 78.4% occurred in daylight between 7.00 and 18.00. Over 97% of the victims were from poor socio economic conditions with a monthly income tk. 6,000 ($94) or less. Only 25.5% of incidences were reported to the police station. Conclusions: Every year a significant number of adults die due to drowning in Bangladesh.  Populations living in rural areas, especially men, were the main victims of drowning. This survey finding might help policy makers and scientists to understand the drowning scenario among adults in Bangladesh.

14th International Probabilistic Workshop

CERN Document Server

Taerwe, Luc; Proske, Dirk

2017-01-01

This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Probabilistic Workshop that was held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.

Mass Communication and Journalism Faculty and Their Electronic Communication with College Students: A Nationwide Examination

Science.gov (United States)

Brunner, Brigitta R.; Yates, Bradford L.; Adams, Jennifer Wood

2008-01-01

Nearly 700 U.S. journalism and mass communication faculty reported their perceptions of student e-mail use via a Web-based survey. This nationwide study focused on content of e-mail received by faculty and made comparisons based on faculty gender. Nearly half of the respondents reported that they occasionally receive e-mails from students before a…

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, J.M.

1982-01-01

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture in structural and mechanical components are examined. The principles of fracture mechanics, material quality and inspection uncertainty are formulated into a conceptual and analytical framework for prediction of failure probability. The role of probabilistic fracture mechanics in a more global context of risk and optimization of decisions is illustrated. An example, where Monte Carlo simulation was used to implement a probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis, is discussed. (orig.)

Probabilistic methods used in NUSS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, J.; Giuliani, P.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic considerations are used implicitly or explicitly in all technical areas. In the NUSS codes and guides the two areas of design and siting are those where more use is made of these concepts. A brief review of the relevant documents in these two areas is made in this paper. It covers the documents where either probabilistic considerations are implied or where probabilistic approaches are recommended in the evaluation of situations and of events. In the siting guides the review mainly covers the area of seismic hydrological and external man-made events analysis, as well as some aspects of meteorological extreme events analysis. Probabilistic methods are recommended in the design guides but they are not made a requirement. There are several reasons for this, mainly lack of reliable data and the absence of quantitative safety limits or goals against which to judge the design analysis. As far as practical, engineering judgement should be backed up by quantitative probabilistic analysis. Examples are given and the concept of design basis as used in NUSS design guides is explained. (author)

Management of infection during chemotherapy for acute leukemia in Japan: a nationwide questionnaire-based survey by the Japan Adult Leukemia Study Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Kimura, Shun-Ichi; Fujita, Hiroyuki; Kato, Hideaki; Hiramoto, Nobuhiro; Hosono, Naoko; Takahashi, Tsutomu; Shigeno, Kazuyuki; Hatsumi, Naoko; Minamiguchi, Hitoshi; Miyatake, Junichi; Handa, Hiroshi; Akiyama, Nobu; Kanda, Yoshinobu; Yoshida, Minoru; Kiyoi, Hitoshi; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Naoe, Tomoki

2017-11-01

We performed a nationwide questionnaire-based survey to evaluate the current clinical practices of infectious complications during chemotherapy for acute leukemia in Japan. We e-mailed a questionnaire to member institutions of the Japan Adult Leukemia Study Group in September, 2013. The questionnaire consisted of 50 multiple-choice questions covering therapeutic environment, antimicrobial prophylaxis, screening test during neutropenia, empirical therapy for febrile neutropenia, and the use of granulocyte-colony stimulating factor. The results were compared to those of previous surveys conducted in 2001 and 2007, and also to the recommendations described in the guidelines. Usable responses were received from 141 out of 222 (63.5%) institutions. Chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia was performed in protective environment in 90% of the institutions, which increased compared to previous survey (76%). Fluoroquinolones and fluconazole were the most commonly used antimicrobial agents for antibacterial and antifungal prophylaxis, followed by sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim and itraconazole, respectively. In empirical therapy for febrile neutropenia, monotherapy with β-lactum antibiotics was the first-line therapy in most of the institutions. While empirical antifungal therapy was adopted for persistent fever in more than half of the institutions, preemptive/presumptive therapy was also used in approximately 40% of the institutions. Most of the clinicians were reluctant to use granulocyte-colony stimulating factor routinely in chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia. This study clarified the current clinical practices of infectious complications during chemotherapy for acute leukemia and would provide important information for the development of a suitable guideline in Japan.

The Relation of Rapid Changes in Obesity Measures to Lipid Profile - Insights from a Nationwide Metabolic Health Survey in 444 Polish Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Kaess, Bernhard M.; Jóźwiak, Jacek; Nelson, Christopher P.; Lukas, Witold; Mastej, Mirosław; Windak, Adam; Tomasik, Tomasz; Grzeszczak, Władysław; Tykarski, Andrzej; Gąsowski, Jerzy; Ślęzak-Prochazka, Izabella; Ślęzak, Andrzej; Charchar, Fadi J.; Sattar, Naveed; Thompson, John R.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Tomaszewski, Maciej

2014-01-01

Objective The impact of fast changes in obesity indices on other measures of metabolic health is poorly defined in the general population. Using the Polish accession to the European Union as a model of political and social transformation we examined how an expected rapid increase in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference relates to changes in lipid profile, both at the population and personal level. Methods Through primary care centres in 444 Polish cities, two cross-sectional nationwide population-based surveys (LIPIDOGRAM 2004 and LIPIDOGRAM 2006) examined 15,404 and 15,453 adult individuals in 2004 and 2006, respectively. A separate prospective sample of 1,840 individuals recruited in 2004 had a follow-up in 2006 (LIPIDOGRAM PLUS). Results Two years after Polish accession to European Union, mean population BMI and waist circumference increased by 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively. This tracked with a 7.6% drop in HDL-cholesterol and a 2.1% increase in triglycerides (all p<0.001) nationwide. The direction and magnitude of the population changes were replicated at the personal level in LIPIDOGRAM PLUS (0.7%, 0.3%, 8.6% and 1.8%, respectively). However, increases in BMI and waist circumference were both only weakly associated with HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides changes prospectively. The relation of BMI to the magnitude of change in both lipid fractions was comparable to that of waist circumference. Conclusions Moderate changes in obesity measures tracked with a significant deterioration in measures of pro-atherogenic dyslipidaemia at both personal and population level. These associations were predominantly driven by factors not measureable directly through either BMI or waist circumference. PMID:24497983

Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

2017-10-01

The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

77 FR 10183 - Reissuance of Nationwide Permits

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-21

... Civil Works Program (Engineer Circular 1165- 2-211). The current Engineer Circular applies to Corps..., Corps of Engineers Reissuance of Nationwide Permits; Notice #0;#0;Federal Register / Vol. 77 , No. 34..., Corps of Engineers RIN 0710-AA71 Reissuance of Nationwide Permits AGENCY: Army Corps of Engineers, DoD...

A nationwide survey of ixodid tick species recovered from domestic dogs and cats in Japan in 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Iwakami, Shinya; Ichikawa, Yasuaki; Inokuma, Hisashi

2014-10-01

A nationwide survey of ixodid ticks was performed in 2011, during which a total of 4237 and 298 ticks were recovered from 1162 dogs and 136 cats, respectively. Haemaphysalis longicornis was the most frequently found tick species on canine hosts (739 dogs), followed by H. flava (166), Ixodes ovatus (139), and Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (70). H. hystricis, H. japonica, H. megaspinosa, H. formosensis, H. campanulata, H. ias, I. nipponensis, I. persulcatus, and Amblyomma testudinarium were also recovered. H. longicornis was also the most frequently found species on feline hosts (52 cats), followed by I. ovatus (34), A. testudinarium (19), and H. flava (12). H. hystricis, H. japonica, H. megaspinosa, I. nipponensis, I. persulcatus, I. granulatus and R. sanguineus sensu lato were also recovered from cats. The three major species of ticks found on dogs and cats, H. longicornis, H. flava, and I. ovatus, displayed a wide geographical distribution, with specimens found throughout northern and southern Japan. R. sanguineus sensu lato was primarily recovered in Okinawa, but was also found in Kanagawa, Wakayama, Hiroshima, and Yamaguchi Prefectures. A. testudinarium was mainly distributed throughout western Japan, but small numbers were also recovered from Gumma and Shizuoka Prefectures. H. longicornis was more frequently found on dogs in rural areas than those in urban or suburban areas. Exposure to woodland environments was significantly associated with H. flava and I. ovatus in dogs. Dogs in urban or suburban areas encountered R. sanguineus sensu lato more often than other tick species. Most of the cats surveyed in the present study were from rural areas. In the present study, H. hystricis and R. sanguineus sensu lato were found on cats for the first time in Japan. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Polydrug use among college students in Brazil: a nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Lúcio Garcia de; Alberghini, Denis Guilherme; Santos, Bernardo dos; Andrade, Arthur Guerra de

2013-01-01

To estimate the frequency of polydrug use (alcohol and illicit drugs) among college students and its associations with gender and age group. A nationwide sample of 12,544 college students was asked to complete a questionnaire on their use of drugs according to three time parameters (lifetime, past 12 months, and last 30 days). The co-use of drugs was investigated as concurrent polydrug use (CPU) and simultaneous polydrug use (SPU), a subcategory of CPU that involves the use of drugs at the same time or in close temporal proximity. Almost 26% of college students reported having engaged in CPU in the past 12 months. Among these students, 37% had engaged in SPU. In the past 30 days, 17% college students had engaged in CPU. Among these, 35% had engaged in SPU. Marijuana was the illicit drug mostly frequently used with alcohol (either as CPU or SPU), especially among males. Among females, the most commonly reported combination was alcohol and prescribed medications. A high proportion of Brazilian college students may be engaging in polydrug use. College administrators should keep themselves informed to be able to identify such use and to develop educational interventions to prevent such behavior.

Probabilistic broadcasting of mixed states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Lvjun; Li Lvzhou; Wu Lihua; Zou Xiangfu; Qiu Daowen

2009-01-01

It is well known that the non-broadcasting theorem proved by Barnum et al is a fundamental principle of quantum communication. As we are aware, optimal broadcasting (OB) is the only method to broadcast noncommuting mixed states approximately. In this paper, motivated by the probabilistic cloning of quantum states proposed by Duan and Guo, we propose a new way for broadcasting noncommuting mixed states-probabilistic broadcasting (PB), and we present a sufficient condition for PB of mixed states. To a certain extent, we generalize the probabilistic cloning theorem from pure states to mixed states, and in particular, we generalize the non-broadcasting theorem, since the case that commuting mixed states can be exactly broadcast can be thought of as a special instance of PB where the success ratio is 1. Moreover, we discuss probabilistic local broadcasting (PLB) of separable bipartite states

Probabilistic modeling of timber structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2007-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...

Incidence and Characteristics of Adrenal Crisis in Children Younger than 7 Years with 21-Hydroxylase Deficiency: A Nationwide Survey in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishii, Tomohiro; Adachi, Masanori; Takasawa, Kei; Okada, Satoshi; Kamasaki, Hotaka; Kubota, Takuo; Kobayashi, Hironori; Sawada, Hirotake; Nagasaki, Keisuke; Numakura, Chikahiko; Harada, Shohei; Minamitani, Kanshi; Sugihara, Shigetaka; Tajima, Toshihiro

2018-01-01

We aimed to evaluate the incidence and characteristics of adrenal crisis in Japanese children with 21-hydroxylase deficiency (21-OHD). We conducted a retrospective nationwide survey for the councilors of the Japanese Society for Pediatric Endocrinology (JSPE) regarding adrenal crisis in children under 7 years with 21-OHD, admitted to hospitals from 2011 through 2016. We defined adrenal crisis as the acute impairment of general health due to glucocorticoid deficiency with at least two of symptoms, signs, or biochemical abnormalities. The councilors of the JSPE in 83 institutions responded to this survey (response rate, 60.1%). Data analyses of 378 patients with 1,101.4 person-years (PYs) revealed that 67 patients (17.7%) experienced at least 1 episode of hospital admission for adrenal crisis at the median age of 2 years. The incidence of adrenal crisis was calculated as 10.9 per 100 PYs (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.6-12.2). Infections were the most common precipitating factors, while no factor was observed in 12.5%. Hypoglycemia occurred concomitantly in 27.4%. One patient died from severe hypoglycemia, resulting in a mortality rate of 0.09 per 100 PYs (95% CI 0.0-0.2). Adrenal crisis is not rare and can be accompanied by disastrous hypoglycemia in children with 21-OHD. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Survey and evaluation of inherent safety characteristics and passive safety systems for use in probabilistic safety analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wetzel, N.; Scharfe, A.

1998-01-01

The present report examines the possibilities and limits of a probabilistic safety analysis to evaluate passive safety systems and inherent safety characteristics. The inherent safety characteristics are based on physical principles, that together with the safety system lead to no damage. A probabilistic evaluation of the inherent safety characteristic is not made. An inventory of passive safety systems of accomplished nuclear power plant types in the Federal Republic of Germany was drawn up. The evaluation of the passive safety system in the analysis of the accomplished nuclear power plant types was examined. The analysis showed that the passive manner of working was always assumed to be successful. A probabilistic evaluation was not performed. The unavailability of the passive safety system was determined by the failure of active components which are necessary in order to activate the passive safety system. To evaluate the passive safety features in new concepts of nuclear power plants the AP600 from Westinghouse, the SBWR from General Electric and the SWR 600 from Siemens, were selected. Under these three reactor concepts, the SWR 600 is specially attractive because the safety features need no energy sources and instrumentation in this concept. First approaches for the assessment of the reliability of passively operating systems are summarized. Generally it can be established that the core melt frequency for the passive concepts AP600 and SBWR is advantageous in comparison to the probabilistic objectives from the European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR). Under the passive concepts is the SWR 600 particularly interesting. In this concept the passive systems need no energy sources and instrumentation, and has active operational systems and active safety equipment. Siemens argues that with this concept the frequency of a core melt will be two orders of magnitude lower than for the conventional reactors. (orig.) [de

Predictors of home death of home palliative cancer care patients: a cross-sectional nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Fukui, Sakiko; Fujita, Junko; Tsujimura, Mayuko; Sumikawa, Yuka; Hayashi, Yayoi

2011-11-01

To identify factors influencing the place of death among home palliative cancer care patients, focusing on the role of nurses in terms of pre- and post-discharge from hospital to home care settings. A cross-sectional nationwide questionnaire survey was conducted at 1000 randomly selected homecare agencies in Japan. The questionnaires were completed by primary community nurses of home palliative patients just after their discharge. A total of 568 responses were analyzed (effective response rate, 69%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the following independent factors of place of death among those patients: desire for home death at referral by both patient and family caregiver; caregiver relationship to patient as daughter or daughter-in-law; totally bedridden functional status of patient; patient not suffering from depression and/or anxiety at referral; patients and caregivers duly informed about the dying process/death in detail, as well as instructed by community nurses about pain management and how to treat/prevent bedsores in home care settings. This study demonstrated the importance of both the hospital and community nurses' role in increasing the patients' chance of dying at home. Hospital nurses should support early transfer to home palliative care according to their assessment of the desire of patient/family caregiver for home death, the patients' clinical status, and caregivers' ability to provide patient care at home. Community nurses should inform patients/family caregiver in detail about the dying process/death just after discharge, relieve patient pain, treat/prevent bedsores, and instruct family caregivers on their symptom control. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural reliability codes for probabilistic design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

1997-01-01

probabilistic code format has not only strong influence on the formal reliability measure, but also on the formal cost of failure to be associated if a design made to the target reliability level is considered to be optimal. In fact, the formal cost of failure can be different by several orders of size for two...... different, but by and large equally justifiable probabilistic code formats. Thus, the consequence is that a code format based on decision theoretical concepts and formulated as an extension of a probabilistic code format must specify formal values to be used as costs of failure. A principle of prudence...... is suggested for guiding the choice of the reference probabilistic code format for constant reliability. In the author's opinion there is an urgent need for establishing a standard probabilistic reliability code. This paper presents some considerations that may be debatable, but nevertheless point...

Potential theory for stationary Schrödinger operators: a survey of results obtained with non-probabilistic methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Bramanti

1992-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper we deal with a uniformly elliptic operator of the kind: Lu  Au + Vu, where the principal part A is in divergence form, and V is a function assumed in a “Kato class”. This operator has been studied in different contexts, especially using probabilistic techniques. The aim of the present work is to give a unified and simplified presentation of the results obtained with non probabilistic methods for the operator L on a bounded Lipschitz domain. These results regard: continuity of the solutions of Lu=0; Harnack inequality; estimates on the Green's function and L-harmonic measure; boundary behavior of positive solutions of Lu=0, in particular a “Fatou's theorem”.

Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis

2010-01-01

This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the

Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas C. Edwards; D. Richard Cutler; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Linda Geiser; Gretchen G. Moisen

2006-01-01

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by...

Treatment and management of thyroid storm: analysis of the nationwide surveys: The taskforce committee of the Japan Thyroid Association and Japan Endocrine Society for the establishment of diagnostic criteria and nationwide surveys for thyroid storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Isozaki, Osamu; Satoh, Tetsurou; Wakino, Shu; Suzuki, Atsushi; Iburi, Tadao; Tsuboi, Kumiko; Kanamoto, Naotetsu; Otani, Hajime; Furukawa, Yasushi; Teramukai, Satoshi; Akamizu, Takashi

2016-06-01

Thyroid storm (TS) is a life-threatening endocrine emergency. This study aimed to achieve a better understanding of the management of TS by analyzing therapeutic modalities and prognoses reported by nationwide surveys performed in Japan. Retrospective analyses were performed on clinical parameters, outcomes, and treatments in 356 TS patients. Patient disease severities assessed via Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores significantly correlated with mortality. Free triiodothyronine (FT3) and the FT3/free thyroxine (FT4) ratio inversely correlated with disease severity. Methimazole (MMI) was used in the majority of patients (78·1%), and there were no significant differences in mortality or disease severity between those treated with MMI and those receiving propylthiouracil (PTU). Patients who received inorganic iodide (KI) demonstrated higher disease severity but no change in mortality compared to those who did not. Patients treated with corticosteroids (CSs) demonstrated significantly higher disease severity and mortality than those who were not. Disease severity in patients treated with intravenous administration of beta-adrenergic antagonists (AAs) was significantly higher than those treated with oral preparations, although no significant difference in mortality was observed between these groups. In addition, mortality was significantly higher in patients treated with non-selective beta-AAs as compared with other types of beta-AAs. In Japan, MMI was preferentially used in TS and showed no disadvantages compared to PTU. In severe TS, multimodal treatment, including administration of antithyroid drugs, KI, CSs and selective beta1 -AAs may be preferable to improve outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Report on comprehensive surveys of nationwide geothermal resources in fiscal 1979. Conceptual design of a database system; 1979 nendo zenkoku chinetsu shigen sogo chosa hokokusho. Database system gainen sekkei

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1980-03-31

Conceptual design was made on a database system as part of the comprehensive surveys of nationwide geothermal resources. Underground hot water in depths of several kilometers close to the ground surface is a utilizable geothermal energy. Exploration using the ground surface survey is much less expensive than the test drilling survey, but has greater error in estimation because of being an indirect method. However, integrating data by freely using a number of exploration methods can improve the accuracy of estimation on the whole. In performing the conceptual design of a geothermal resource information system, the functions of this large scale database were used as the framework. Further data collection, distribution and interactive type man-machine communication, modeling, and environment surveillance functions were incorporated. Considerations were also given on further diversified utilization patterns and on support to users in remote areas and end users. What is important in designing the system is that constituting elements of hardware and software should function while being combined organically as one system, rather than the elements work independently. In addition, sufficient expandability and flexibility are indispensable. (NEDO)

Probabilistic finite elements for fracture mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Besterfield, Glen

1988-01-01

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) is developed for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). A finite element which has the near crack-tip singular strain embedded in the element is used. Probabilistic distributions, such as expectation, covariance and correlation stress intensity factors, are calculated for random load, random material and random crack length. The method is computationally quite efficient and can be expected to determine the probability of fracture or reliability.

Integrated Campaign Probabilistic Cost, Schedule, Performance, and Value for Program Office Support

Science.gov (United States)

Cornelius, David; Sasamoto, Washito; Daugherty, Kevin; Deacon, Shaun

2012-01-01

This paper describes an integrated assessment tool developed at NASA Langley Research Center that incorporates probabilistic analysis of life cycle cost, schedule, launch performance, on-orbit performance, and value across a series of planned space-based missions, or campaign. Originally designed as an aid in planning the execution of missions to accomplish the National Research Council 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, it utilizes Monte Carlo simulation of a series of space missions for assessment of resource requirements and expected return on investment. Interactions between simulated missions are incorporated, such as competition for launch site manifest, to capture unexpected and non-linear system behaviors. A novel value model is utilized to provide an assessment of the probabilistic return on investment. A demonstration case is discussed to illustrate the tool utility.

Probabilistic Mu-Calculus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Xue, Bingtian

2016-01-01

We introduce a version of the probabilistic µ-calculus (PMC) built on top of a probabilistic modal logic that allows encoding n-ary inequational conditions on transition probabilities. PMC extends previously studied calculi and we prove that, despite its expressiveness, it enjoys a series of good...... metaproperties. Firstly, we prove the decidability of satisfiability checking by establishing the small model property. An algorithm for deciding the satisfiability problem is developed. As a second major result, we provide a complete axiomatization for the alternation-free fragment of PMC. The completeness proof...

Results of a Nationwide Capacity Survey of Hospitals Providing Trauma Care in War-Affected Syria.

Science.gov (United States)

Mowafi, Hani; Hariri, Mahmoud; Alnahhas, Houssam; Ludwig, Elizabeth; Allodami, Tammam; Mahameed, Bahaa; Koly, Jamal Kaby; Aldbis, Ahmed; Saqqur, Maher; Zhang, Baobao; Al-Kassem, Anas

2016-09-01

The Syrian civil war has resulted in large-scale devastation of Syria's health infrastructure along with widespread injuries and death from trauma. The capacity of Syrian trauma hospitals is not well characterized. Data are needed to allocate resources for trauma care to the population remaining in Syria. To identify the number of trauma hospitals operating in Syria and to delineate their capacities. From February 1 to March 31, 2015, a nationwide survey of 94 trauma hospitals was conducted inside Syria, representing a coverage rate of 69% to 93% of reported hospitals in nongovernment controlled areas. Identification and geocoding of trauma and essential surgical services in Syria. Although 86 hospitals (91%) reported capacity to perform emergency surgery, 1 in 6 hospitals (16%) reported having no inpatient ward for patients after surgery. Sixty-three hospitals (70%) could transfuse whole blood but only 7 (7.4%) could separate and bank blood products. Seventy-one hospitals (76%) had any pharmacy services. Only 10 (11%) could provide renal replacement therapy, and only 18 (20%) provided any form of rehabilitative services. Syrian hospitals are isolated, with 24 (26%) relying on smuggling routes to refer patients to other hospitals and 47 hospitals (50%) reporting domestic supply lines that were never open or open less than daily. There were 538 surgeons, 378 physicians, and 1444 nurses identified in this survey, yielding a nurse to physician ratio of 1.8:1. Only 74 hospitals (79%) reported any salary support for staff, and 84 (89%) reported material support. There is an unmet need for biomedical engineering support in Syrian trauma hospitals, with 12 fixed x-ray machines (23%), 11 portable x-ray machines (13%), 13 computed tomographic scanners (22%), 21 adult (21%) and 5 pediatric (19%) ventilators, 14 anesthesia machines (10%), and 116 oxygen cylinders (15%) not functional. No functioning computed tomographic scanners remain in Aleppo, and 95 oxygen cylinders (42

Endosonography-related mortality and morbidity for pulmonary indications: a nationwide survey in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

von Bartheld, Martin B; Annema, Jouke T

2015-12-01

Endosonography is being implemented rapidly in pulmonary medicine for the diagnosis and staging of lung cancer, the assessment of sarcoidosis, and the assessment of mediastinal lesions. Although serious adverse events (SAEs) have been described, safety data outside cohort studies are scarce. To assess the SAE and mortality rate of EUS-guided FNA (EUS-FNA) and endobronchial ultrasound guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) for mediastinal and/or hilar analysis. Nationwide, retrospective survey by using questionnaires. All hospitals in the Netherlands. All patients undergoing EUS-FNA and EBUS-TBNA for intrathoracic analysis in the period 1999 to 2011. EUS-FNA and EBUS-TBNA. Occurrence of fatal outcomes and SAEs. Detailed information was obtained for each reported case, and all cases were reviewed independently by 2 investigators, including identification of risk factors. All 89 hospitals (100%) responded. An estimated 14,075 EUS-FNA and 2675 EBUS procedures were performed. Seven patients died after endosonography (5 EUS-FNA, 2 EBUS [mortality rate 0.04%]). All fatalities occurred in patients of poor performance status (American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System score of III/IV). Twenty-five SAEs were reported (22 EUS-FNA, 3 EBUS [SAE rate of 0.15%; EUS-FNA 0.16%, EBUS 0.11%]). SAEs were mostly (64%) of infectious origin. No specific risk factors for infectious adverse events could be identified. Retrospective study, possible recall bias, overrepresentation of EUS-FNA cases. Endosonography appears to be a safe technique for the analysis of mediastinal and/or hilar lesions. Poor performance status is a risk factor for fatal outcomes. Mediastinitis and/or mediastinal abscess formation is rare but is a potential and dangerous adverse event of endosonography. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims

Science.gov (United States)

Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.

Mass Communication and Journalism Faculty's Perceptions of the Effectiveness of Email Communication with College Students: A Nationwide Study

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Bradford L.; Adams, Jennifer Wood; Brunner, Brigitta R.

2009-01-01

Nearly 700 US journalism and mass communication faculty (all teaching personnel) reported their perceptions of student email use via a web-based survey. This nationwide study focused on the content of email sent by faculty to students, email's effectiveness, and email's effect on student learning. Comparisons were made based on faculty gender,…

Probabilistic prediction of expected ground condition and construction time and costs in road tunnels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mahmoodzadeh

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Ground condition and construction (excavation and support time and costs are the key factors in decision-making during planning and design phases of a tunnel project. An innovative methodology for probabilistic estimation of ground condition and construction time and costs is proposed, which is an integration of the ground prediction approach based on Markov process, and the time and cost variance analysis based on Monte-Carlo (MC simulation. The former provides the probabilistic description of ground classification along tunnel alignment according to the geological information revealed from geological profile and boreholes. The latter provides the probabilistic description of the expected construction time and costs for each operation according to the survey feedbacks from experts. Then an engineering application to Hamro tunnel is presented to demonstrate how the ground condition and the construction time and costs are estimated in a probabilistic way. In most items, in order to estimate the data needed for this methodology, a number of questionnaires are distributed among the tunneling experts and finally the mean values of the respondents are applied. These facilitate both the owners and the contractors to be aware of the risk that they should carry before construction, and are useful for both tendering and bidding.

Compression of Probabilistic XML documents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veldman, Irma

2009-01-01

Probabilistic XML (PXML) files resulting from data integration can become extremely large, which is undesired. For XML there are several techniques available to compress the document and since probabilistic XML is in fact (a special form of) XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In

The Use of the Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology in Korea: A Nationwide Multicenter Survey by the Korean Society of Endocrine Pathologists

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mimi Kim

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Background The Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology (TBSRTC has standardized the reporting of thyroid cytology specimens. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the nationwide usage of TBSRTC and assess the malignancy rates in each category of TBSRTC in Korea. Methods Questionnaire surveys were used for data collection on the fine needle aspiration (FNA of thyroid nodules at 74 institutes in 2012. The incidences and follow-up malignancy rates of each category diagnosed from January to December, 2011, in each institute were also collected and analyzed. Results Sixty out of 74 institutes answering the surveys reported the results of thyroid FNA in accordance with TBSRTC. The average malignancy rates for resected cases in 15 institutes were as follows: nondiagnostic, 45.6%; benign, 16.5%; atypical of undetermined significance, 68.8%; suspicious for follicular neoplasm (SFN, 30.2%; suspicious for malignancy, 97.5%; malignancy, 99.7%. Conclusions More than 80% of Korean institutes were using TBSRTC as of 2012. All malignancy rates other than the SFN and malignancy categories were higher than those reported by other countries. Therefore, the guidelines for treating patients with thyroid nodules in Korea should be revisited based on the malignancy rates reported in this study.

Probabilistic Infinite Secret Sharing

OpenAIRE

Csirmaz, László

2013-01-01

The study of probabilistic secret sharing schemes using arbitrary probability spaces and possibly infinite number of participants lets us investigate abstract properties of such schemes. It highlights important properties, explains why certain definitions work better than others, connects this topic to other branches of mathematics, and might yield new design paradigms. A probabilistic secret sharing scheme is a joint probability distribution of the shares and the secret together with a colle...

Probabilistic brains: knowns and unknowns

Science.gov (United States)

Pouget, Alexandre; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ma, Wei Ji; Latham, Peter E

2015-01-01

There is strong behavioral and physiological evidence that the brain both represents probability distributions and performs probabilistic inference. Computational neuroscientists have started to shed light on how these probabilistic representations and computations might be implemented in neural circuits. One particularly appealing aspect of these theories is their generality: they can be used to model a wide range of tasks, from sensory processing to high-level cognition. To date, however, these theories have only been applied to very simple tasks. Here we discuss the challenges that will emerge as researchers start focusing their efforts on real-life computations, with a focus on probabilistic learning, structural learning and approximate inference. PMID:23955561

Probabilistic simple sticker systems

Science.gov (United States)

Selvarajoo, Mathuri; Heng, Fong Wan; Sarmin, Nor Haniza; Turaev, Sherzod

2017-04-01

A model for DNA computing using the recombination behavior of DNA molecules, known as a sticker system, was introduced by by L. Kari, G. Paun, G. Rozenberg, A. Salomaa, and S. Yu in the paper entitled DNA computing, sticker systems and universality from the journal of Acta Informatica vol. 35, pp. 401-420 in the year 1998. A sticker system uses the Watson-Crick complementary feature of DNA molecules: starting from the incomplete double stranded sequences, and iteratively using sticking operations until a complete double stranded sequence is obtained. It is known that sticker systems with finite sets of axioms and sticker rules generate only regular languages. Hence, different types of restrictions have been considered to increase the computational power of sticker systems. Recently, a variant of restricted sticker systems, called probabilistic sticker systems, has been introduced [4]. In this variant, the probabilities are initially associated with the axioms, and the probability of a generated string is computed by multiplying the probabilities of all occurrences of the initial strings in the computation of the string. Strings for the language are selected according to some probabilistic requirements. In this paper, we study fundamental properties of probabilistic simple sticker systems. We prove that the probabilistic enhancement increases the computational power of simple sticker systems.

Probabilistic numerical discrimination in mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkay, Dilara; Çavdaroğlu, Bilgehan; Balcı, Fuat

2016-03-01

Previous studies showed that both human and non-human animals can discriminate between different quantities (i.e., time intervals, numerosities) with a limited level of precision due to their endogenous/representational uncertainty. In addition, other studies have shown that subjects can modulate their temporal categorization responses adaptively by incorporating information gathered regarding probabilistic contingencies into their time-based decisions. Despite the psychophysical similarities between the interval timing and nonverbal counting functions, the sensitivity of count-based decisions to probabilistic information remains an unanswered question. In the current study, we investigated whether exogenous probabilistic information can be integrated into numerosity-based judgments by mice. In the task employed in this study, reward was presented either after few (i.e., 10) or many (i.e., 20) lever presses, the last of which had to be emitted on the lever associated with the corresponding trial type. In order to investigate the effect of probabilistic information on performance in this task, we manipulated the relative frequency of different trial types across different experimental conditions. We evaluated the behavioral performance of the animals under models that differed in terms of their assumptions regarding the cost of responding (e.g., logarithmically increasing vs. no response cost). Our results showed for the first time that mice could adaptively modulate their count-based decisions based on the experienced probabilistic contingencies in directions predicted by optimality.

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

2010-01-01

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Probabilistic Role Models and the Guarded Fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

Probabilistic role models and the guarded fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2006-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin

2015-01-01

Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics

Probabilistic Programming (Invited Talk)

OpenAIRE

Yang, Hongseok

2017-01-01

Probabilistic programming refers to the idea of using standard programming constructs for specifying probabilistic models from machine learning and statistics, and employing generic inference algorithms for answering various queries on these models, such as posterior inference and estimation of model evidence. Although this idea itself is not new and was, in fact, explored by several programming-language and statistics researchers in the early 2000, it is only in the last few years that proba...

Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

2017-01-01

A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...... with deterministic phase and those with probabilistic phase. A case study performed on a string of ten 3MW, Type-IV wind turbines implemented in PSCAD was used to verify the probabilistic SD harmonic model. The probabilistic SD harmonic model can be employed in the planning phase of WPP projects to assess harmonic...

Topics in Probabilistic Judgment Aggregation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guanchun

2011-01-01

This dissertation is a compilation of several studies that are united by their relevance to probabilistic judgment aggregation. In the face of complex and uncertain events, panels of judges are frequently consulted to provide probabilistic forecasts, and aggregation of such estimates in groups often yield better results than could have been made…

A logic for inductive probabilistic reasoning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2005-01-01

Inductive probabilistic reasoning is understood as the application of inference patterns that use statistical background information to assign (subjective) probabilities to single events. The simplest such inference pattern is direct inference: from '70% of As are Bs" and "a is an A" infer...... that a is a B with probability 0.7. Direct inference is generalized by Jeffrey's rule and the principle of cross-entropy minimization. To adequately formalize inductive probabilistic reasoning is an interesting topic for artificial intelligence, as an autonomous system acting in a complex environment may have...... to base its actions on a probabilistic model of its environment, and the probabilities needed to form this model can often be obtained by combining statistical background information with particular observations made, i.e., by inductive probabilistic reasoning. In this paper a formal framework...

A convergence theory for probabilistic metric spaces | Jäger ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We develop a theory of probabilistic convergence spaces based on Tardiff's neighbourhood systems for probabilistic metric spaces. We show that the resulting category is a topological universe and we characterize a subcategory that is isomorphic to the category of probabilistic metric spaces. Keywords: Probabilistic metric ...

Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework

OpenAIRE

Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo

2011-01-01

The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...

The Ripple Effect of Virginia Tech: Assessing the Nationwide Impact on Campus Safety and Security Policy and Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Chris; Johnson, Gina

2008-01-01

This report is the result of a nationwide survey conducted in March 2008 of student life officers and campus safety directors to assess the impact of the April 2007 shootings at Virginia Tech on campus safety and security policy and practice. Discussion areas include: (1) Student Privacy vs. Need-to-Know; (2) Prevention, Mitigation and Recovery;…

Relationship between stress coping and sleep disorders among the general Japanese population: a nationwide representative survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Otsuka, Yuichiro; Kaneita, Yoshitaka; Itani, Osamu; Nakagome, Sachi; Jike, Maki; Ohida, Takashi

2017-09-01

To clarify the prevalence of stress, and examine the relationship between sleep disorders and stress coping strategies among highly stressed individuals in the general Japanese population. A cross-sectional nationwide survey was undertaken in November 2007. Men and women were randomly selected from 300 districts throughout Japan. Data from 7671 (3532 men (average age 53.5 ± 17.0 years) and 4139 women (average age 53.9 ± 17.7 years)) were analyzed. Participants completed a self-reported questionnaire on stress, sleep disorders, and stress coping strategies in the previous month. Highly stressed individuals comprised 16.6% (95% confidence interval 15.8-17.5%) of the total sample, and most were aged 20-49 years. In multiple logistic regression, symptoms of insomnia (ie, difficulty initiating sleep, difficulty maintaining sleep, and early morning awakening), excessive daytime sleepiness, nightmares, daytime malfunction, and lack of rest due to sleep deprivation were more prone to occur in highly stressed individuals. In addition, logistic regression analysis controlling for other adjustment factors revealed that stress coping strategies such as 'giving up on problem-solving', 'enduring problems patiently', 'smoking' and 'drinking alcohol' were positively associated with the above-mentioned sleep disorders. On the other hand, stress coping strategies such as 'exercising', 'enjoying hobbies', and 'sharing worries' were inversely associated with the above-mentioned sleep disorders. Distraction-based stress coping (eg, hobbies, exercise, and optimistic thinking) was found to be preferable to problem-based stress coping in a highly stressed Japanese general population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diversity of the definition of stable vital sign in trauma patients: results of a nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Mun, Seongpyo

2015-12-01

Hemodynamic stability (HS) based on vital sign (VS) is thought to be the most useful criteria for successful non-operative management (NOM) of blunt spleen injury (BSI). However, a consistent definition of HS has not been established. We wanted to evaluate the definition of HS through conducting a nationwide survey and find the factors affectting diversity. The questionnaire regarding the definition of HS was sent to the department of trauma surgery and emergency medicine of level I trauma center between October 2012 and November 2012. Data was compared using analysis of variance, t-test, χ2 test and logistic regression. Among five hundred and sixty-three doctors, 507 responded (90%). Forty-eight responses were incomplete, and hence, 459 (81.5%) responses were analyzed. There was a significant diversity in the definition of HS on the subject of type of blood pressure (BP), cut off value of hypotension, measuring technique of BP, duration of hypotension, whether or not using heart rate (HR) as a determinant of HS, cut off value of hypotension when the patient has comorbidity or when the patient is a pediatric patient. 91.5% replied that they were confused defining HS and felt the need to have more objective determinants. Nevertheless, 90% of the responders were not using laboratory test to define HS. Many trauma doctors are using only VS to define HS. This is why there is a confusion regarding how to define which patient is hemodynamically stable. More objective determinants such as base deficit or lactate can be useful adjuncts.

Probabilistic studies of accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villemeur, A.; Berger, J.P.

1986-01-01

For several years, Electricite de France has carried out probabilistic assessment of accident sequences for nuclear power plants. In the framework of this program many methods were developed. As the interest in these studies was increasing and as adapted methods were developed, Electricite de France has undertaken a probabilistic safety assessment of a nuclear power plant [fr

Probabilistic safety assessment for instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants. A literature survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, Lixuan; Jiang, Jin

2003-01-01

Deregulation in electricity market will create a great deal of challenges for Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). To stay competitive, NPP will need to find new ways to reduce their operation costs. In NPP, Instrumentation and Control (I and C) systems play an important role in reducing the cost of producing electricity while maintaining and/or enhancing safety. Therefore, it is extremely important that one should manage the I and C systems more efficiently and economically. Meanwhile, obsolescence problem associated with I and C systems encouraged the usage of advanced digital techniques in I and C systems. Thus, new methodologies are needed to analyze the reliability and determine the maintenance strategy for the digital I and C systems. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has been probed to be a promising method to deal with this issue. This paper provides a literature survey on the development of digital I and C systems in NPP, followed by a detailed review of PSA including its benefits, limitations and the future direction of its development. Most importantly, potential applications of PSA in various aspects of I and C systems are brought into perspective throughout the paper. Furthermore, the applicability of PSA in the regulation of safety-related I and C systems is demonstrated. Detailed information on PSA applications in 1) the resource allocation for I and C systems: 2) the determination of surveillance testing strategies; and 3) I and C system designs, is provided. (author)

Convex sets in probabilistic normed spaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aghajani, Asadollah; Nourouzi, Kourosh

2008-01-01

In this paper we obtain some results on convexity in a probabilistic normed space. We also investigate the concept of CSN-closedness and CSN-compactness in a probabilistic normed space and generalize the corresponding results of normed spaces

Probabilistic finite elements

Science.gov (United States)

Belytschko, Ted; Wing, Kam Liu

1987-01-01

In the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM), finite element methods have been efficiently combined with second-order perturbation techniques to provide an effective method for informing the designer of the range of response which is likely in a given problem. The designer must provide as input the statistical character of the input variables, such as yield strength, load magnitude, and Young's modulus, by specifying their mean values and their variances. The output then consists of the mean response and the variance in the response. Thus the designer is given a much broader picture of the predicted performance than with simply a single response curve. These methods are applicable to a wide class of problems, provided that the scale of randomness is not too large and the probabilistic density functions possess decaying tails. By incorporating the computational techniques we have developed in the past 3 years for efficiency, the probabilistic finite element methods are capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. Sample results for an elastic-plastic ten-bar structure and an elastic-plastic plane continuum with a circular hole subject to cyclic loadings with the yield stress on the random field are given.

Probabilistic reasoning with graphical security models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kordy, Barbara; Pouly, Marc; Schweitzer, Patrick

This work provides a computational framework for meaningful probabilistic evaluation of attack–defense scenarios involving dependent actions. We combine the graphical security modeling technique of attack–defense trees with probabilistic information expressed in terms of Bayesian networks. In order

Clinical features and treatment outcomes of Langerhans cell histiocytosis: a nationwide survey from Korea histiocytosis working party.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Bo Eun; Koh, Kyung-Nam; Suh, Jin Kyung; Im, Ho Joon; Song, Joon Sup; Lee, Ji Won; Kang, Hyoung Jin; Park, Kyung Duck; Shin, Hee Young; Choi, Hyoung Soo; Lee, Soo Hyun; Yoo, Keon Hee; Sung, Ki Woong; Koo, Hong Hoe; Jung, Hye Lim; Chung, Nak-Gyun; Cho, Bin; Kim, Hack Ki; Lyu, Chuhl Joo; Baek, Hee Jo; Kook, Hoon; Park, Jun Eun; Park, Hyeon Jin; Park, Byung-Kiu; Yoo, Eun Sun; Ryu, Kyung Ha; Lee, Kun Soo; Kim, Heung Sik; Lee, Jae Min; Park, Eun Sil; Yoon, Hoi Soo; Lee, Kwang Chul; Lee, Mee Jeong; Lim, Young Tak; Kim, Hwang Min; Park, Sang Kyu; Park, Jeong-A; Kim, Soon Ki; Park, Meerim; Lim, Yeon-Jung; Lee, Young Ho; Seo, Jong Jin

2014-03-01

A nationwide survey was conducted to clarify the clinical features and outcomes of Korean children with Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH). Korea Histiocytosis Working Party analyzed the data of 603 patients who were diagnosed with LCH between 1986 and 2010 from 28 institutions in Korea. Median age at diagnosis was 65 months (range, 0 to 276 mo). Bone was the most frequently affected organ (79.6%) followed by skin (19.2%). Initially, 419 patients (69.5%) had single-system involvement (SS), 85 (14.1%) with multisystem (MS) disease without risk organ involvement (MS-RO), and 99 (16.4%) multisystem disease with risk organ involvement (MS-RO). The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates in the SS, MS-RO, and MS-RO groups were 99.8%, 98.4%, and 77.0%, respectively (P<0.001), and the 5-year reactivation rates were 17.9%, 33.5%, and 34.3%, respectively (P<0.001). The OS rate was lower in patients with RO involvement (P=0.025) and lack of response to initial treatment (P=0.001). MS involvement (P=0.036) was an independent risk factor for reactivation. Permanent consequences were documented in 99 patients (16.4%). Reactivation of disease, MS involvement, and age at diagnosis ≤ 2 years were associated with higher incidence of permanent consequences. This study emphasized that further efforts are required to improve survival of MS-RO patients and reduce reactivation in younger patients with MS involvement.

Consideration of aging in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Titina, B.; Cepin, M.

2007-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment is a standardised tool for assessment of safety of nuclear power plants. It is a complement to the safety analyses. Standard probabilistic models of safety equipment assume component failure rate as a constant. Ageing of systems, structures and components can theoretically be included in new age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment, which generally causes the failure rate to be a function of age. New age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment models, which offer explicit calculation of the ageing effects, are developed. Several groups of components are considered which require their unique models: e.g. operating components e.g. stand-by components. The developed models on the component level are inserted into the models of the probabilistic safety assessment in order that the ageing effects are evaluated for complete systems. The preliminary results show that the lack of necessary data for consideration of ageing causes highly uncertain models and consequently the results. (author)

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Feedback about Earthquake Early Warning: Questionnaire survey after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, M.; Hoshiba, M.; Matsui, M.; Hayashimoto, N.; Wakayama, A.

2013-05-01

We will report the results of a questionnaire survey on Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in February 2012, approximately one year after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0). In the questionnaire survey, which is based on the performance of the 5-year operation of EEW, the respondents were asked how they obtained EEW, how they reacted to EEW and how useful they considered EEW as a safety measure against strong ground shaking. Respondents numbered 817 in the Tohoku district survey and 2,000 in the nationwide survey. Most respondents received EEW messages from TV or cell phone broadcast mail service. Most respondents took some actions in the Tohoku district (74 percent) and nationwide (54 percent); 16 and 17 percent, respectively, tried to take action but could not; and 10 and 29 percent, respectively, did nothing. More than 90 and 80 percent of respondents thought EEW was useful in the Tohoku district and nationwide, respectively. Many people stated that EEW helped them prepare for strong shaking, even if they did not actually take specific actions. The percentage of respondents evaluating EEW to be useful was larger among Tohoku than nationwide. Likewise, the percentage of people who were able to take useful actions was larger in the Tohoku than nationwide. The difference may be attributed to the degree of experience of EEW that had been frequently issued particularly to the Tohoku district since March the 11th 2011. The benefit of the EEW system was recognized both as a trigger of taking actual actions and as an aid to mental preparedness before strong jolts began. Most people considered that the EEW system was useful despite of some false alarms. Although it is necessary to improve the EEW system to reduce false alarms and make the predictions more precise, the results of this survey should be encouraging to the community of promoting and researching EEW.

Branching bisimulation congruence for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Aldini, A.; Baier, C.

2008-01-01

The notion of branching bisimulation for the alternating model of probabilistic systems is not a congruence with respect to parallel composition. In this paper we first define another branching bisimulation in the more general model allowing consecutive probabilistic transitions, and we prove that

And the Survey Says ...

Science.gov (United States)

White, Susan C.

2013-01-01

Two-Year Colleges, Physics Majors, and Diversity. As noted last month, we're taking a look at physics in two-year colleges (TYCs). We expect to have the first reports from our 2012-13 Nationwide Survey of High School Physics Teachers in the spring of 2014. Last month we noted that the high school physics experience of undergraduate physics…

Impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy on hospital mortality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Wilde, R. F.; Besselink, M. G. H.; van der Tweel, I.; de Hingh, I. H. J. T.; van Eijck, C. H. J.; Dejong, C. H. C.; Porte, R. J.; Gouma, D. J.; Busch, O. R. C.; Molenaar, I. Q.

Background: The impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) on mortality is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in hospital volumes and in-hospital mortality after PD in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2009. Methods: Nationwide data on International

Impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy on hospital mortality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Wilde, R. F.; Besselink, M. G. H.; van der Tweel, I.; de Hingh, I. H. J. T.; van Eijck, C. H. J.; Dejong, C. H. C.; Porte, R. J.; Gouma, D. J.; Busch, O. R. C.; Molenaar, I. Q.

2012-01-01

Background: The impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) on mortality is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in hospital volumes and in-hospital mortality after PD in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2009. Methods: Nationwide data on International

Probabilistic approach to mechanisms

CERN Document Server

Sandler, BZ

1984-01-01

This book discusses the application of probabilistics to the investigation of mechanical systems. The book shows, for example, how random function theory can be applied directly to the investigation of random processes in the deflection of cam profiles, pitch or gear teeth, pressure in pipes, etc. The author also deals with some other technical applications of probabilistic theory, including, amongst others, those relating to pneumatic and hydraulic mechanisms and roller bearings. Many of the aspects are illustrated by examples of applications of the techniques under discussion.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-28

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-01

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Types of non-probabilistic sampling used in marketing research. „Snowball” sampling

OpenAIRE

Manuela Rozalia Gabor

2007-01-01

A significant way of investigating a firm’s market is the statistical sampling. The sampling typology provides a non / probabilistic models of gathering information and this paper describes thorough information related to network sampling, named “snowball” sampling. This type of sampling enables the survey of occurrence forms concerning the decision power within an organisation and of the interpersonal relation network governing a certain collectivity, a certain consumer panel. The snowball s...

Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Raftery, Adrian E

2016-12-01

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don't need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications.

Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don’t need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications. PMID:28446941

Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark

2015-07-08

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

Managing urban wastewater in China: a survey of build-operate-transfer contracts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Braadbaart, O.D.; Zhang, M.S.; Wang, Y.

2009-01-01

This paper reports on a nationwide field survey of wastewater plants under build-operate-transfer ( BOT) contracts in China. The survey yielded information on contracting parties, size, duration and location of 37 BOT contracts. The key findings are that municipal governments feature as first

Probabilistic linguistics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bod, R.; Heine, B.; Narrog, H.

2010-01-01

Probabilistic linguistics takes all linguistic evidence as positive evidence and lets statistics decide. It allows for accurate modelling of gradient phenomena in production and perception, and suggests that rule-like behaviour is no more than a side effect of maximizing probability. This chapter

Probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets in decision making with positive and negative parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Fatimah, F.; Rosadi, D.; Hakim, R. B. F.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we motivate and introduce probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets for handling decision making problem in the presence of positive and negative parameters. We propose several types of algorithms related to this problem. Our procedures are flexible and adaptable. An example on real data is also given.

Why do probabilistic finite element analysis ?

CERN Document Server

Thacker, Ben H

2008-01-01

The intention of this book is to provide an introduction to performing probabilistic finite element analysis. As a short guideline, the objective is to inform the reader of the use, benefits and issues associated with performing probabilistic finite element analysis without excessive theory or mathematical detail.

Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

2011-01-01

The assumption in some current theories of probabilistic categorization is that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report 2 probabilistic-categorization experiments in which we investigated error…

Probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Salvatier

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Probabilistic programming allows for automatic Bayesian inference on user-defined probabilistic models. Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling allow inference on increasingly complex models. This class of MCMC, known as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, requires gradient information which is often not readily available. PyMC3 is a new open source probabilistic programming framework written in Python that uses Theano to compute gradients via automatic differentiation as well as compile probabilistic programs on-the-fly to C for increased speed. Contrary to other probabilistic programming languages, PyMC3 allows model specification directly in Python code. The lack of a domain specific language allows for great flexibility and direct interaction with the model. This paper is a tutorial-style introduction to this software package.

Comparing Categorical and Probabilistic Fingerprint Evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Garrett, Brandon; Mitchell, Gregory; Scurich, Nicholas

2018-04-23

Fingerprint examiners traditionally express conclusions in categorical terms, opining that impressions do or do not originate from the same source. Recently, probabilistic conclusions have been proposed, with examiners estimating the probability of a match between recovered and known prints. This study presented a nationally representative sample of jury-eligible adults with a hypothetical robbery case in which an examiner opined on the likelihood that a defendant's fingerprints matched latent fingerprints in categorical or probabilistic terms. We studied model language developed by the U.S. Defense Forensic Science Center to summarize results of statistical analysis of the similarity between prints. Participant ratings of the likelihood the defendant left prints at the crime scene and committed the crime were similar when exposed to categorical and strong probabilistic match evidence. Participants reduced these likelihoods when exposed to the weaker probabilistic evidence, but did not otherwise discriminate among the prints assigned different match probabilities. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Survey on application of probabilistic fracture mechanics approach to nuclear piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kashima, Koichi

1987-01-01

Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) approach is newly developed as one of the tools to evaluate the structural integrity of nuclear components. This report describes the current status of PFM studies for pressure vessel and piping system in light water reactors and focuses on the investigations of the piping failure probability which have been undertaken by USNRC. USNRC reevaluates the double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) of rector coolant piping as a design basis event for nuclear power plant by using the PFM approach. For PWR piping systems designed by Westinghouse, two causes of pipe break are considered: pipe failure due to the crack growth and pipe failure indirectly caused by failure of component supports due to an earthquake. PFM approach shows that the probability of DEGB from either cause is very low and that the effect of earthquake on pipe failure can be neglected. (author)

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

1993-04-01

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

Occupational Therapy in the Context of Head Start: A Preliminary Survey Study

Science.gov (United States)

Bowyer, Patricia; Moore, Cary C.; Thom, Carly

2016-01-01

This preliminary, descriptive study yields information on the utilization of occupational therapy services within Head Start programs. Participants completed an Internet-based survey of 25 questions pertaining to the understanding, scope, and utilization of occupational therapy services. Surveys were completed by 35 respondents nationwide. A total…

Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-Scale Composite Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Chamis, Christos C.

2012-01-01

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the non-deterministic composite response at all composite scales (from micro to structural) due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties, in the fabrication process and in structural variables (primitive variables). The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of composite behavior, such as material properties, laminate and structural responses. Bi-products of the methodology are probabilistic sensitivities of the composite primitive variables. The methodology has been implemented into the computer codes PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer) and IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in composite typical laminates and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Available experimental data of composite laminate behavior at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN. Multi-scaling is extended to simulate probabilistic thermo-mechanical fatigue and to simulate the probabilistic design of a composite redome in order to illustrate its versatility. Results show that probabilistic fatigue can be simulated for different temperature amplitudes and for different cyclic stress magnitudes. Results also show that laminate configurations can be selected to increase the redome reliability by several orders of magnitude without increasing the laminate thickness--a unique feature of structural composites. The old reference denotes that nothing fundamental has been done since that time.

Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kudinov, P.; Vorobyev, Y.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Queral, C.; Jimenez Varas, G.; Rebollo, M. J.; Mena, L.; Gomez-Magin, J.

2014-02-01

IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses. (Author)

2008 TIGER/Line Nationwide Dataset

Data.gov (United States)

California Natural Resource Agency — This dataset contains a nationwide build of the 2008 TIGER/Line datasets from the US Census Bureau downloaded in April 2009. The TIGER/Line Shapefiles are an extract...

Probabilistic Cue Combination: Less Is More

Science.gov (United States)

Yurovsky, Daniel; Boyer, Ty W.; Smith, Linda B.; Yu, Chen

2013-01-01

Learning about the structure of the world requires learning probabilistic relationships: rules in which cues do not predict outcomes with certainty. However, in some cases, the ability to track probabilistic relationships is a handicap, leading adults to perform non-normatively in prediction tasks. For example, in the "dilution effect,"…

Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography

OpenAIRE

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Cord, Anna F; Kessler, Michael; Kreft, Holger; Kühn, Ingolf; Pompe, Sven; Sandel, Brody; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Smith, Adam B; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Tuomisto, Hanna; Weigelt, Patrick; Wesche, Karsten

2016-01-01

Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjuncti...

A preliminary nationwide survey of the presence of emerging contaminants in drinking and source waters in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Machado, Kelly C; Grassi, Marco Tadeu; Vidal, Cristiane; Pescara, Igor C; Jardim, Wilson F; Fernandes, Andreia N; Sodré, Fernando F; Almeida, Fernanda V; Santana, Joyce S; Canela, Maria Cristina; Nunes, Camila R O; Bichinho, Kátia M; Severo, Flaviana J R

2016-12-01

This is the first nationwide survey of emerging contaminants in Brazilian waters. One hundred drinking water samples were investigated in 22 Brazilian state capitals. In addition, seven source water samples from two of the most populous regions of the country were evaluated. Samples were collected from June to September of 2011 and again during the same period in 2012. The study covered emerging contaminants of different classes, including hormones, plasticizers, herbicides, triclosan and caffeine. The analytical method for the determination of the compounds was based on solid-phase extraction followed by analysis via liquid chromatography electrospray triple-quadrupole mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Caffeine, triclosan, atrazine, phenolphthalein and bisphenol A were found in at least one of the samples collected in the two sampling campaigns. Caffeine and atrazine were the most frequently detected substances in both drinking and source water. Caffeine concentrations in drinking water ranged from 1.8ngL -1 to values above 2.0μgL -1 while source-water concentrations varied from 40ngL -1 to about 19μgL -1 . For atrazine, concentrations were found in the range from 2.0 to 6.0ngL -1 in drinking water and at concentrations of up to 15ngL -1 in source water. The widespread presence of caffeine in samples of treated water is an indication of the presence of domestic sewage in the source water, considering that caffeine is a compound of anthropogenic origin. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Involvement of herbal medicine as a cause of mesenteric phlebosclerosis: results from a large-scale nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimizu, Seiji; Kobayashi, Taku; Tomioka, Hideo; Ohtsu, Kensei; Matsui, Toshiyuki; Hibi, Toshifumi

2017-03-01

Mesenteric phlebosclerosis (MP) is a rare disease characterized by venous calcification extending from the colonic wall to the mesentery, with chronic ischemic changes from venous return impairment in the intestine. It is an idiopathic disease, but increasing attention has been paid to the potential involvement of herbal medicine, or Kampo, in its etiology. Until now, there were scattered case reports, but no large-scale studies have been conducted to unravel the clinical characteristics and etiology of the disease. A nationwide survey was conducted using questionnaires to assess possible etiology (particularly the involvement of herbal medicine), clinical manifestations, disease course, and treatment of MP. Data from 222 patients were collected. Among the 169 patients (76.1 %), whose history of herbal medicine was obtained, 147 (87.0 %) used herbal medicines. The use of herbal medicines containing sanshishi (gardenia fruit, Gardenia jasminoides Ellis) was reported in 119 out of 147 patients (81.0 %). Therefore, the use of herbal medicine containing sanshishi was confirmed in 70.4 % of 169 patients whose history of herbal medicine was obtained. The duration of sanshishi use ranged from 3 to 51 years (mean 13.6 years). Patients who discontinued sanshishi showed a better outcome compared with those who continued it. The use of herbal medicine containing sanshishi is associated with the etiology of MP. Although it may not be the causative factor, it is necessary for gastroenterologists to be aware of the potential risk of herbal medicine containing sanshishi for the development of MP.

Probabilistic acute dietary exposure assessments to captan and tolylfluanid using several European food consumption and pesticide concentration databases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boon, Polly E.; Svensson, Kettil; Moussavian, Shahnaz

2009-01-01

to national food consumption surveys. In this way it is possible to exchange or merge concentration data between countries in situations of data scarcity. This electronic platform in connection with probabilistic software can be seen as a prototype of a data warehouse, including a harmonised approach...

Probabilistic Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, H. F.

This chapter describes how partial safety factors can be used in design of vertical wall breakwaters and an example of a code format is presented. The partial safety factors are calibrated on a probabilistic basis. The code calibration process used to calibrate some of the partial safety factors...

Probabilistic Learning by Rodent Grid Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Allen

2016-10-01

Mounting evidence shows mammalian brains are probabilistic computers, but the specific cells involved remain elusive. Parallel research suggests that grid cells of the mammalian hippocampal formation are fundamental to spatial cognition but their diverse response properties still defy explanation. No plausible model exists which explains stable grids in darkness for twenty minutes or longer, despite being one of the first results ever published on grid cells. Similarly, no current explanation can tie together grid fragmentation and grid rescaling, which show very different forms of flexibility in grid responses when the environment is varied. Other properties such as attractor dynamics and grid anisotropy seem to be at odds with one another unless additional properties are assumed such as a varying velocity gain. Modelling efforts have largely ignored the breadth of response patterns, while also failing to account for the disastrous effects of sensory noise during spatial learning and recall, especially in darkness. Here, published electrophysiological evidence from a range of experiments are reinterpreted using a novel probabilistic learning model, which shows that grid cell responses are accurately predicted by a probabilistic learning process. Diverse response properties of probabilistic grid cells are statistically indistinguishable from rat grid cells across key manipulations. A simple coherent set of probabilistic computations explains stable grid fields in darkness, partial grid rescaling in resized arenas, low-dimensional attractor grid cell dynamics, and grid fragmentation in hairpin mazes. The same computations also reconcile oscillatory dynamics at the single cell level with attractor dynamics at the cell ensemble level. Additionally, a clear functional role for boundary cells is proposed for spatial learning. These findings provide a parsimonious and unified explanation of grid cell function, and implicate grid cells as an accessible neuronal population

A cross-sectional survey of parental care-seeking behavior for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mohammed Baba Abdulkadir

2016-03-11

Mar 11, 2016 ... Material and methods: The study is a secondary analysis of 2013 Demographic ... data for Nigeria, which was a cross-sectional survey conducted nationwide to .... excludes no medical care, pharmacies, shops and traditional.

Probabilistic composition of preferences, theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Parracho Sant'Anna, Annibal

2015-01-01

Putting forward a unified presentation of the features and possible applications of probabilistic preferences composition, and serving as a methodology for decisions employing multiple criteria, this book maximizes reader insights into the evaluation in probabilistic terms and the development of composition approaches that do not depend on assigning weights to the criteria. With key applications in important areas of management such as failure modes, effects analysis and productivity analysis – together with explanations about the application of the concepts involved –this book makes available numerical examples of probabilistic transformation development and probabilistic composition. Useful not only as a reference source for researchers, but also in teaching classes of graduate courses in Production Engineering and Management Science, the key themes of the book will be of especial interest to researchers in the field of Operational Research.

Probabilistic Reversible Automata and Quantum Automata

OpenAIRE

Golovkins, Marats; Kravtsev, Maksim

2002-01-01

To study relationship between quantum finite automata and probabilistic finite automata, we introduce a notion of probabilistic reversible automata (PRA, or doubly stochastic automata). We find that there is a strong relationship between different possible models of PRA and corresponding models of quantum finite automata. We also propose a classification of reversible finite 1-way automata.

Probabilistic uniformities of uniform spaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodriguez Lopez, J.; Romaguera, S.; Sanchis, M.

2017-07-01

The theory of metric spaces in the fuzzy context has shown to be an interesting area of study not only from a theoretical point of view but also for its applications. Nevertheless, it is usual to consider these spaces as classical topological or uniform spaces and there are not too many results about constructing fuzzy topological structures starting from a fuzzy metric. Maybe, H/{sup o}hle was the first to show how to construct a probabilistic uniformity and a Lowen uniformity from a probabilistic pseudometric /cite{Hohle78,Hohle82a}. His method can be directly translated to the context of fuzzy metrics and allows to characterize the categories of probabilistic uniform spaces or Lowen uniform spaces by means of certain families of fuzzy pseudometrics /cite{RL}. On the other hand, other different fuzzy uniformities can be constructed in a fuzzy metric space: a Hutton $[0,1]$-quasi-uniformity /cite{GGPV06}; a fuzzifiying uniformity /cite{YueShi10}, etc. The paper /cite{GGRLRo} gives a study of several methods of endowing a fuzzy pseudometric space with a probabilistic uniformity and a Hutton $[0,1]$-quasi-uniformity. In 2010, J. Guti/'errez Garc/'{/i}a, S. Romaguera and M. Sanchis /cite{GGRoSanchis10} proved that the category of uniform spaces is isomorphic to a category formed by sets endowed with a fuzzy uniform structure, i. e. a family of fuzzy pseudometrics satisfying certain conditions. We will show here that, by means of this isomorphism, we can obtain several methods to endow a uniform space with a probabilistic uniformity. Furthermore, these constructions allow to obtain a factorization of some functors introduced in /cite{GGRoSanchis10}. (Author)

Bisimulations meet PCTL equivalences for probabilistic automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun; Godskesen, Jens Chr.

2013-01-01

Probabilistic automata (PAs) have been successfully applied in formal verification of concurrent and stochastic systems. Efficient model checking algorithms have been studied, where the most often used logics for expressing properties are based on probabilistic computation tree logic (PCTL) and its...

Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; Buslik, A.J.

1984-01-01

A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a range of tissues affecting reactor safety. This guide addresses the determination of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident initiators internal to the plant and from loss of offsite electric power. The scope includes analyses of problem-solving (cognitive) human errors, a determination of importance of the various core damage accident sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for the key accident sequences. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance) and the risk associated with external accident initiators, as consensus is developed regarding suitable methodologies in these areas. This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are essential for regulatory decision making. Methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study

Knowledge and perceptions of physicians from private medical centres towards generic medicines: a nationwide survey from Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Rohit; Hassali, Mohamed Azmi; Saleem, Fahad; Alrasheedy, Alian A; Kaur, Navneet; Wong, Zhi Yen; Kader, Muhamad Ali Sk Abdul

2015-01-01

Generic medicine prescribing has become a common practice in public hospitals. However, the trend in private medical centres seems to be different. The objective of this study was to investigate knowledge, perceptions and behavior of physicians from private medical centres in Malaysia regarding generic medicines. This study was a cross-sectional nationwide survey targeting physicians from private medical centres in Malaysia. The survey was conducted using questionnaire having (i) background and demographic data of the physicians, volume of prescription in a day, stock of generic medicines in their hospital pharmacy etc. (ii) their knowledge about bioequivalence (iii) prescribing behavior (iv) physicians' knowledge of quality, safety and efficacy of generic medicines, and their cost (v) perceptions of physicians towards issues pertaining to generic medicines utilization. A total of 263 questionnaires out of 735 were received, giving a response rate of 35.8%. Of the respondents, 214 (81.4%) were male and 49 (18.6%) were females. The majority of the participants were in the age range of 41-50 years and comprised 49.0% of the respondents. Only 2.3% of physicians were aware of the regulatory limits of bioequivalence standards in Malaysia. Of the respondents, 23.2% agreed that they 'always' write their prescriptions using originator product name whereas 50.2% do it 'usually'. A number of significant associations were found between their knowledge, perceptions about generic medicines and their demographic characteristics. The majority of the physicians from private medical centres in Malaysia had negative perceptions about safety, quality and the efficacy of generic medicines. These negative perceptions could be the cause of the limited use of generic medicines in the private medical centres. Therefore, in order to facilitate their use, it is recommended that the physicians need to be reassured and educated about the drug regulatory authority approval system of generic

Overview of Future of Probabilistic Methods and RMSL Technology and the Probabilistic Methods Education Initiative for the US Army at the SAE G-11 Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

Singhal, Surendra N.

2003-01-01

The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting sponsored by the Picatinny Arsenal during March 1-3, 2004 at Westin Morristown, will report progress on projects for probabilistic assessment of Army system and launch an initiative for probabilistic education. The meeting features several Army and industry Senior executives and Ivy League Professor to provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11s Probabilistic Methods Committee is to enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development.

Multiobjective optimal allocation problem with probabilistic non ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper considers the optimum compromise allocation in multivariate stratified sampling with non-linear objective function and probabilistic non-linear cost constraint. The probabilistic non-linear cost constraint is converted into equivalent deterministic one by using Chance Constrained programming. A numerical ...

Pre-processing for Triangulation of Probabilistic Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bodlaender, H.L.; Koster, A.M.C.A.; Eijkhof, F. van den; Gaag, L.C. van der

2001-01-01

The currently most efficient algorithm for inference with a probabilistic network builds upon a triangulation of a networks graph. In this paper, we show that pre-processing can help in finding good triangulations for probabilistic networks, that is, triangulations with a minimal maximum

Strategic Team AI Path Plans: Probabilistic Pathfinding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tng C. H. John

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method to generate strategic team AI pathfinding plans for computer games and simulations using probabilistic pathfinding. This method is inspired by genetic algorithms (Russell and Norvig, 2002, in that, a fitness function is used to test the quality of the path plans. The method generates high-quality path plans by eliminating the low-quality ones. The path plans are generated by probabilistic pathfinding, and the elimination is done by a fitness test of the path plans. This path plan generation method has the ability to generate variation or different high-quality paths, which is desired for games to increase replay values. This work is an extension of our earlier work on team AI: probabilistic pathfinding (John et al., 2006. We explore ways to combine probabilistic pathfinding and genetic algorithm to create a new method to generate strategic team AI pathfinding plans.

Professional identity, career choices, and working conditions of future and young dentists in Germany - study design and methods of a nationwide comprehensive survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Kettler, Nele; Frenzel Baudisch, Nicolas; Micheelis, Wolfgang; Klingenberger, David; Jordan, A Rainer

2017-10-18

Little is known regarding young and future dentists' career choices, professional identity, and working conditions in Germany. While the dental healthcare environment and demands in treatment are changing, it remains unclear what job perceptions young dentists have developed at the beginning of their work life and if and how these perceptions change during the subsequent years. The aim of this study was to survey future and young dentists regarding their professional identity, planned career paths, and working conditions and strains to understand career decisions and choices and enable policy makers to include future dentists' views and expectations in their decisions. This study is a longitudinal nationwide survey over a time span of 4 years of dental students and young dentists in Germany and is comprised of three waves. The first wave focuses on dental students in their final year before the state examination and is composed of a qualitative pre-study in the form of focus groups and a quantitative main survey in the form of a questionnaire. The end points were established to analyse (1) the professional identity of the young future dentists; (2) their career paths, preparation for a career, and basic career conditions; and (3) perceived conditions and strains. The aim of the overall survey was to depict the development of these three aspects during the first years of work life. All of the questions were evaluated with a descriptive univariate analysis. The analysed subgroups were grouped according to gender, target working condition (employed/self-employed), and primary socialisation (parents dentists/parents not dentists). To our knowledge, this is the only study which focuses on career choices, professional identity, and working conditions of future and young dentists in Germany. The longitudinal observation provides information that is essential for professional and purposive dental health care planning, and to meet the oral health demands and needs of the

Nationwide Survey of Patient Knowledge and Attitudes towards Human Experimentation Using Stem Cells or Bee Venom Acupuncture for Parkinson’s Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2014-10-01

Full Text Available ObjectiveStem cell treatment is a well-recognized experimental treatment among patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD, for which there are high expectations of a positive impact. Acupuncture with bee venom is one of the most popular complementary and alternative treatments for PD. Patient knowledge and attitudes towards these experimental treatments are unknown. MethodsUsing a 12-item questionnaire, a nationwide survey was conducted of 963 PD patients and 267 caregivers in 44 Korean Movement Disorders Society member hospitals from April 2013 to June 2013. The survey was performed by trained interviewers using conventional methods. ResultsRegarding questions on experimental treatments using stem cells or bee venom acupuncture, 5.1–17.7% of PD patients answered questions on safety, efficacy, and evidence-based practice incorrectly; however, more than half responded that they did not know the correct answer. Although safety and efficacy have not been established, 55.5% of PD patients responded that they were willing to receive stem cell treatment. With regard to participating in experimental treatments, there was a strong correlation between stem cell treatment and bee venom acupuncture (p < 0.0001, odds ratio = 5.226, 95% confidence interval 3.919–6.969. Younger age, higher education, and a longer duration of PD were all associated with a correct understanding of experimental treatments. ConclusionsOur data suggest that relatively few PD patients correctly understand the safety and efficacy of experimental treatments and that PD patients are greatly interested in new treatments. We hope that our data will be used to educate or to plan educational programs for PD patients and caregivers.

Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Mehta, Roopa; Almeda-Valdes, Paloma; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Villalpando, Salvador; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A

2011-01-07

To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model. The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years). The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades.

Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments Jan Dettmer School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria BC...long-range inversion methods can fail to provide sufficient resolution. For proper quantitative examination of variability, parameter uncertainty must...project aims to advance probabilistic geoacoustic inversion methods for complex ocean environments for a range of geoacoustic data types. The work is

Optimization (Alara) and probabilistic exposures: the application of optimization criteria to the control of risks due to exposures of a probabilistic nature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez, A.J.

1989-01-01

The paper described the application of the principles of optimization recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to the restrain of radiation risks due to exposures that may or may not be incurred and to which a probability of occurrence can be assigned. After describing the concept of probabilistic exposures, it proposes a basis for a converging policy of control for both certain and probabilistic exposures, namely the dose-risk relationship adopted for radiation protection purposes. On that basis some coherent approaches for dealing with probabilistic exposures, such as the limitation of individual risks, are discussed. The optimization of safety for reducing all risks from probabilistic exposures to as-low-as-reasonably-achievable (ALARA) levels is reviewed in full. The principles of optimization of protection are used as a basic framework and the relevant factors to be taken into account when moving to probabilistic exposures are presented. The paper also reviews the decision-aiding techniques suitable for performing optimization with particular emphasis to the multi-attribute utility-analysis technique. Finally, there is a discussion on some practical application of decision-aiding multi-attribute utility analysis to probabilistic exposures including the use of probabilistic utilities. In its final outlook, the paper emphasizes the need for standardization and solutions to generic problems, if optimization of safety is to be successful

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

Science.gov (United States)

Shiao, Michael C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Chamis, Christos C.

1988-01-01

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Probabilistic conditional independence structures

CERN Document Server

Studeny, Milan

2005-01-01

Probabilistic Conditional Independence Structures provides the mathematical description of probabilistic conditional independence structures; the author uses non-graphical methods of their description, and takes an algebraic approach.The monograph presents the methods of structural imsets and supermodular functions, and deals with independence implication and equivalence of structural imsets.Motivation, mathematical foundations and areas of application are included, and a rough overview of graphical methods is also given.In particular, the author has been careful to use suitable terminology, and presents the work so that it will be understood by both statisticians, and by researchers in artificial intelligence.The necessary elementary mathematical notions are recalled in an appendix.

Pediatric radiation therapy. A Japanese nationwide survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemoto, Kenji; Nagata, Yasushi; Hirokawa, Yutaka

2006-01-01

A national survey on the current status of pediatric radiation therapy was performed in October 2004. We sent questionnaires to 638 radiotherapy facilities in Japan (except for Kansai area) and 245 responses were analyzed. According to the database of committee of Japanese Society of Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (JASTRO), the number of pediatric patients who received radiation therapy during 2003 in Japan was 1,101. The most frequent pediatric malignancy was brain tumor, followed by leukemia and lymphoma. The total effort of radiation therapy for children was two to six times larger than that for adult patients. An additional fee seems to be necessary for the highly technical and laborious radiation therapy required for children. (author)

Probabilistic assessment of nuclear safety and safeguards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higson, D.J.

1987-01-01

Nuclear reactor accidents and diversions of materials from the nuclear fuel cycle are perceived by many people as particularly serious threats to society. Probabilistic assessment is a rational approach to the evaluation of both threats, and may provide a basis for decisions on appropriate actions to control them. Probabilistic method have become standard tools used in the analysis of safety, but there are disagreements on the criteria to be applied when assessing the results of analysis. Probabilistic analysis and assessment of the effectiveness of nuclear material safeguards are still at an early stage of development. (author)

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hana Ševčíková

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

Atmospheric deposition of heavy metals in Norway. Nationwide survey 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinnes, Eiliv; Berg, Torunn; Uggerud, Hilde Thelle; Pfaffhuber, Katrine Aspmo

2011-01-01

The geographical distribution of atmospheric deposition of heavy metals in Norway was mapped in 2010 by analysis of moss samples from 464 sites all over the country. This report provides a presentation of the results and a comparison with data from a series of corresponding moss surveys starting 1977. The survey is part of an international program comprising large parts of Europe. The survey primarily concerns the ten metals of priority in the European program: vanadium, chromium, iron, nickel, copper, zinc, arsenic, cadmium, mercury, and lead. In addition data are reported for another 42 elements in the moss. The discussion of the obtained data mainly refers to contributions from air pollution. In addition influence from natural processes to the elemental composition of the moss and how it may influence the interpretation of the data is discussed. (Author)

A Markov Chain Approach to Probabilistic Swarm Guidance

Science.gov (United States)

Acikmese, Behcet; Bayard, David S.

2012-01-01

This paper introduces a probabilistic guidance approach for the coordination of swarms of autonomous agents. The main idea is to drive the swarm to a prescribed density distribution in a prescribed region of the configuration space. In its simplest form, the probabilistic approach is completely decentralized and does not require communication or collabo- ration between agents. Agents make statistically independent probabilistic decisions based solely on their own state, that ultimately guides the swarm to the desired density distribution in the configuration space. In addition to being completely decentralized, the probabilistic guidance approach has a novel autonomous self-repair property: Once the desired swarm density distribution is attained, the agents automatically repair any damage to the distribution without collaborating and without any knowledge about the damage.

Probabilistic reasoning for assembly-based 3D modeling

KAUST Repository

Chaudhuri, Siddhartha

2011-01-01

Assembly-based modeling is a promising approach to broadening the accessibility of 3D modeling. In assembly-based modeling, new models are assembled from shape components extracted from a database. A key challenge in assembly-based modeling is the identification of relevant components to be presented to the user. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reasoning approach to this problem. Given a repository of shapes, our approach learns a probabilistic graphical model that encodes semantic and geometric relationships among shape components. The probabilistic model is used to present components that are semantically and stylistically compatible with the 3D model that is being assembled. Our experiments indicate that the probabilistic model increases the relevance of presented components. © 2011 ACM.

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for select space propulsion system components

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H. R.; Cruse, T. A.

1989-01-01

The Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project developed at the Southwest Research Institute integrates state-of-the-art structural analysis techniques with probability theory for the design and analysis of complex large-scale engineering structures. An advanced efficient software system (NESSUS) capable of performing complex probabilistic analysis has been developed. NESSUS contains a number of software components to perform probabilistic analysis of structures. These components include: an expert system, a probabilistic finite element code, a probabilistic boundary element code and a fast probability integrator. The NESSUS software system is shown. An expert system is included to capture and utilize PSAM knowledge and experience. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator (FPI). The expert system menu structure is summarized. The NESSUS system contains a state-of-the-art nonlinear probabilistic finite element code, NESSUS/FEM, to determine the structural response and sensitivities. A broad range of analysis capabilities and an extensive element library is present.

The Class of 2011 Student Survey Report

Science.gov (United States)

National Association of Colleges and Employers (NJ3), 2011

2011-01-01

Based on responses from 20,000 college seniors nationwide, "The Class of 2011 Student Survey Report" gives you hard numbers "plus" the analysis you need to develop your college recruiting strategy and build your brand among college students. Align your recruiting strategies tactics with students' wants, needs, attitudes, and behaviors--you'll get…

Probabilistic reasoning in data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sirovich, Lawrence

2011-09-20

This Teaching Resource provides lecture notes, slides, and a student assignment for a lecture on probabilistic reasoning in the analysis of biological data. General probabilistic frameworks are introduced, and a number of standard probability distributions are described using simple intuitive ideas. Particular attention is focused on random arrivals that are independent of prior history (Markovian events), with an emphasis on waiting times, Poisson processes, and Poisson probability distributions. The use of these various probability distributions is applied to biomedical problems, including several classic experimental studies.

Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Ramos

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

A nationwide survey of the quality of antimalarials in retail outlets in Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaur, Harparkash; Goodman, Catherine; Thompson, Eloise; Thompson, Katy-Anne; Masanja, Irene; Kachur, S Patrick; Abdulla, Salim

2008-01-01

Retail pharmaceutical products are commonly used to treat fever and malaria in sub-Saharan African countries. Small scale studies have suggested that poor quality antimalarials are widespread throughout the region, but nationwide data are not available that could lead to generalizable conclusions about the extent to which poor quality drugs are available in African communities. This study aimed to assess the quality of antimalarials available from retail outlets across mainland Tanzania. We systematically purchased samples of oral antimalarial tablets from retail outlets across 21 districts in mainland Tanzania in 2005. A total of 1080 antimalarial formulations were collected including 679 antifol antimalarial samples (394 sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine and 285 sulfamethoxypyrazine/pyrimethamine), 260 amodiaquine samples, 63 quinine samples, and 51 artemisinin derivative samples. A systematic subsample of 304 products was assessed for quality by laboratory based analysis to determine the amount of the active ingredient and dissolution profile by following the published United States Pharmacopoeia (USP) monogram for the particular tablet being tested. Products for which a published analytical monogram did not exist were assessed on amount of active ingredient alone. Overall 38 or 12.2% of the samples were found to be of poor quality. Of the antifolate antimalarial drugs tested 13.4% were found to be of poor quality by dissolution and content analysis using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Nearly one quarter (23.8%) of quinine tablets did not comply within the tolerance limits of the dissolution and quantification analysis. Quality of amodiaquine drugs was relatively better but still unacceptable as 7.5% did not comply within the tolerance limits of the dissolution analysis. Formulations of the artemisinin derivatives all contained the stated amount of active ingredient when analysed using HPLC alone. Substandard antimalarial formulations were widely

A nationwide survey of the quality of antimalarials in retail outlets in Tanzania.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harparkash Kaur

Full Text Available Retail pharmaceutical products are commonly used to treat fever and malaria in sub-Saharan African countries. Small scale studies have suggested that poor quality antimalarials are widespread throughout the region, but nationwide data are not available that could lead to generalizable conclusions about the extent to which poor quality drugs are available in African communities. This study aimed to assess the quality of antimalarials available from retail outlets across mainland Tanzania.We systematically purchased samples of oral antimalarial tablets from retail outlets across 21 districts in mainland Tanzania in 2005. A total of 1080 antimalarial formulations were collected including 679 antifol antimalarial samples (394 sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine and 285 sulfamethoxypyrazine/pyrimethamine, 260 amodiaquine samples, 63 quinine samples, and 51 artemisinin derivative samples. A systematic subsample of 304 products was assessed for quality by laboratory based analysis to determine the amount of the active ingredient and dissolution profile by following the published United States Pharmacopoeia (USP monogram for the particular tablet being tested. Products for which a published analytical monogram did not exist were assessed on amount of active ingredient alone. Overall 38 or 12.2% of the samples were found to be of poor quality. Of the antifolate antimalarial drugs tested 13.4% were found to be of poor quality by dissolution and content analysis using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Nearly one quarter (23.8% of quinine tablets did not comply within the tolerance limits of the dissolution and quantification analysis. Quality of amodiaquine drugs was relatively better but still unacceptable as 7.5% did not comply within the tolerance limits of the dissolution analysis. Formulations of the artemisinin derivatives all contained the stated amount of active ingredient when analysed using HPLC alone.Substandard antimalarial formulations were

A linear process-algebraic format for probabilistic systems with data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Timmer, Mark; Gomes, L.; Khomenko, V.; Fernandes, J.M.

This paper presents a novel linear process algebraic format for probabilistic automata. The key ingredient is a symbolic transformation of probabilistic process algebra terms that incorporate data into this linear format while preserving strong probabilistic bisimulation. This generalises similar

Rural Competitiveness: Results of the 1996 Rural Manufacturing Survey

OpenAIRE

Gale, H. Frederick, Jr.; McGranahan, David A.; Teixeira, Ruy; Greenberg, Elizabeth

1999-01-01

Establishments in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan locations are surprisingly similar in their adoption of new technologies, worker skill requirements, use of government programs and technical assistance, exports, and sources of financing, according to the results of a nationwide survey of 3,909 manufacturing businesses. The most widespread concern of both metro and nonmetro businesses appears to be with quality of labor. Survey respondents report rapidly increasing skill requirements, and ma...

National Survey of Veterans, Active Duty Service Members, Demobilized National Guard and Reserve Members, Family Members, and Surviving Spouses

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — The 2010 National Survey of Veterans (NSV) is the sixth in a series of comprehensive nationwide surveys designed to help the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) plan...

2006 B100 Quality Survey Results: Milestone Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alleman, T. L.; McCormick, R. L.; Deutch, S.

2007-05-01

In 2006, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted a nationwide quality survey of pure biodiesel (B100) intended to be used as a blendstock. The study collected random samples throughout the United States and analyzed them for quality against the current and proposed ASTM D6751 fuel quality specifications.

Probabilistic thread algebra

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergstra, J.A.; Middelburg, C.A.

2015-01-01

We add probabilistic features to basic thread algebra and its extensions with thread-service interaction and strategic interleaving. Here, threads represent the behaviours produced by instruction sequences under execution and services represent the behaviours exhibited by the components of execution

On probabilistic forecasting of wind power time-series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre

power dynamics. In both cases, the model parameters are adaptively and recursively estimated, time-adaptativity being the result of exponential forgetting of past observations. The probabilistic forecasting methodology is applied at the Horns Rev wind farm in Denmark, for 10-minute ahead probabilistic...... forecasting of wind power generation. Probabilistic forecasts generated from the proposed methodology clearly have higher skill than those obtained from a classical Gaussian assumption about wind power predictive densities. Corresponding point forecasts also exhibit significantly lower error criteria....

Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

1989-11-01

A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

Deliverable D74.2. Probabilistic analysis methods for support structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas

2018-01-01

Relevant Description: Report describing the probabilistic analysis for offshore substructures and results attained. This includes comparison with experimental data and with conventional design. Specific targets: 1) Estimate current reliability level of support structures 2) Development of basis...... for probabilistic calculations and evaluation of reliability for offshore support structures (substructures) 3) Development of a probabilistic model for stiffness and strength of soil parameters and for modeling geotechnical load bearing capacity 4) Comparison between probabilistic analysis and deterministic...

A common fixed point for operators in probabilistic normed spaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghaemi, M.B.; Lafuerza-Guillen, Bernardo; Razani, A.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Metric spaces was introduced by Karl Menger. Alsina, Schweizer and Sklar gave a general definition of probabilistic normed space based on the definition of Menger [Alsina C, Schweizer B, Sklar A. On the definition of a probabilistic normed spaces. Aequationes Math 1993;46:91-8]. Here, we consider the equicontinuity of a class of linear operators in probabilistic normed spaces and finally, a common fixed point theorem is proved. Application to quantum Mechanic is considered.

A History of Probabilistic Inductive Logic Programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabrizio eRiguzzi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The field of Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP has seen significant advances in the last 20 years, with many proposals for languages that combine probability with logic programming. Since the start, the problem of learning probabilistic logic programs has been the focus of much attention. Learning these programs represents a whole subfield of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP. In Probabilistic ILP (PILP two problems are considered: learning the parameters of a program given the structure (the rules and learning both the structure and the parameters. Usually structure learning systems use parameter learning as a subroutine. In this article we present an overview of PILP and discuss the main results.

Probabilistic assessment of faults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foden, R.W.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is the process by which the probability (or frequency of occurrence) of reactor fault conditions which could lead to unacceptable consequences is assessed. The basic objective of a PSA is to allow a judgement to be made as to whether or not the principal probabilistic requirement is satisfied. It also gives insights into the reliability of the plant which can be used to identify possible improvements. This is explained in the article. The scope of a PSA and the PSA performed by the National Nuclear Corporation (NNC) for the Heysham II and Torness AGRs and Sizewell-B PWR are discussed. The NNC methods for hazards, common cause failure and operator error are mentioned. (UK)

Probabilistic methods in combinatorial analysis

CERN Document Server

Sachkov, Vladimir N

2014-01-01

This 1997 work explores the role of probabilistic methods for solving combinatorial problems. These methods not only provide the means of efficiently using such notions as characteristic and generating functions, the moment method and so on but also let us use the powerful technique of limit theorems. The basic objects under investigation are nonnegative matrices, partitions and mappings of finite sets, with special emphasis on permutations and graphs, and equivalence classes specified on sequences of finite length consisting of elements of partially ordered sets; these specify the probabilist

Probabilistic coding of quantum states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grudka, Andrzej; Wojcik, Antoni; Czechlewski, Mikolaj

2006-01-01

We discuss the properties of probabilistic coding of two qubits to one qutrit and generalize the scheme to higher dimensions. We show that the protocol preserves the entanglement between the qubits to be encoded and the environment and can also be applied to mixed states. We present a protocol that enables encoding of n qudits to one qudit of dimension smaller than the Hilbert space of the original system and then allows probabilistic but error-free decoding of any subset of k qudits. We give a formula for the probability of successful decoding

Probabilistic Modeling of Timber Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, J.D.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2005-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) and of the COST action E24 'Reliability of Timber Structures'. The present...... proposal is based on discussions and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for components and connections. The recommended...

A nationwide survey on seroprevalence of Neospora caninum infection in beef cattle in Uruguay.

Science.gov (United States)

Bañales, Pedro; Fernandez, Leandro; Repiso, María V; Gil, Andres; Dargatz, David A; Osawa, Takeshi

2006-06-30

Bovine abortions due to Neospora caninum infection have been reported worldwide and its economic impact on the beef industry has been acknowledged as a problem. Uruguay has the largest export value of beef per acre in South America. However, no data on the prevalence of N. caninum infection have been available in this country. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and distribution of N. caninum infection in beef cattle in Uruguay through a nationwide survey. A two stage sampling design was used with farms being selected in stage one and animals being selected in stage two. A brief questionnaire was administered on each farm. Seroprevalence of N. caninum in 4444 beef cattle from 229 farms in all the counties, except Montevideo, of Uruguay was determined by an ELISA. The data were then analyzed to identify associations between infection and variables such as type of animal (cow or heifer), herd size, use of veterinary advice, productivity of the soil in relation to the national average, use of improved grass, use of mineral salts, use of supplemental feed, and presence of a dog(s) on the farm. The estimated proportion of positive farms for all the beef cattle operations was 69.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 53.7-84.7). The overall cattle seroprevalence was estimated as 13.9% (95% CI, 11.6-16.3). The prevalence estimation by animal category was 14.3% (95% CI, 11.4-17.2) for beef cows and 12.9% (95% CI, 10.0-15.8) for beef heifers. There was no significant difference in the estimated prevalence between the two animal types. There was no significant difference in the animal level prevalence of N. caninum infection among different herd sizes. None of the herd demographic or management variables was significantly associated with the seropositivity to N. caninum infection. In conclusion, these results show that N. caninum infection is common among beef herds across Uruguay. Since the beef industry is one of the key industries in Uruguay, the

Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2014-02-14

Feb 14, 2014 ... Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model ... aim of this paper is to investigate the increase in the lead-time of flash flood warnings of the SAFFG using probabilistic precipitation forecasts ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based.

Probabilistic Analysis Methods for Hybrid Ventilation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brohus, Henrik; Frier, Christian; Heiselberg, Per

This paper discusses a general approach for the application of probabilistic analysis methods in the design of ventilation systems. The aims and scope of probabilistic versus deterministic methods are addressed with special emphasis on hybrid ventilation systems. A preliminary application...... of stochastic differential equations is presented comprising a general heat balance for an arbitrary number of loads and zones in a building to determine the thermal behaviour under random conditions....

Linking young men who have sex with men (YMSM) to STI physicians: a nationwide cross-sectional survey in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Bolin; Zhao, Peipei; Bien, Cedric; Pan, Stephen; Tang, Weiming; Watson, Julia; Mi, Guodong; Ding, Yi; Luo, Zhenzhou; Tucker, Joseph D

2018-05-18

Many young men who have sex with men (YMSM) are reluctant to seek health services and trust local physicians. Online information seeking may encourage YMSM to identify and see trustworthy physicians, obtain sexual health services, and obtain testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). This study examined online STI information seeking behaviors among Chinese YMSM and its association with offline physician visits. We conducted a nationwide online survey among YMSM through WeChat, the largest social media platform in China. We collected information on individual demographics, sexual behaviors, online STI information seeking, offline STI testing, and STI physician visits. We examined the most commonly used platforms (search engines, governmental websites, counseling websites, generic social media, gay mobile apps, and mobile medical apps) and their trustworthiness. We assessed interest and willingness to use an MSM-friendly physician finder function embedded within a gay mobile app. Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlation between online STI information searching and offline physician visits. A total of 503 men completed the survey. Most men (425/503, 84.5%) searched for STI information online. The most commonly used platform to obtain STI information were search engines (402/425, 94.5%), followed by gay mobile apps (201/425, 47.3%). Men reported high trustworthiness of information received from gay mobile apps. Men also reported high interest (465/503, 92.4%) and willingness (463/503, 92.0%) to use a MSM-friendly physician finder function within such apps. Both using general social media (aOR =1.14, 95%CI: 1.04-1.26) and mobile medical apps (aOR =1.16, 95%CI: 1.01-1.34) for online information seeking were associated with visiting a physician. Online STI information seeking is common and correlated with visiting a physician among YMSM. Cultivating partnerships with the emerging mobile medical apps may be useful for disseminating STI

Aortic events in a nationwide Marfan syndrome cohort

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groth, Kristian A; Krag, Kirstine Stochholm; Hove, Hanne

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Marfan syndrome is associated with morbidity and mortality due to aortic dilatation and dissection. Preventive aortic root replacement has been the standard treatment in Marfan syndrome patients with aortic dilatation. In this study, we present aortic event data from a nationwide Marfan...... syndrome cohort. METHOD: The nationwide cohort of Danish Marfan syndrome patients was established from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Cause of Death Register, where we retrieved information about aortic surgery and dissections. We associated aortic events with age, sex, and Marfan syndrome...

Danish nationwide registers for public health and health-related research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erlangsen, Annette; Fedyszyn, Izabela

2015-01-01

AIMS: The Nordic countries have a strong tradition of using nationwide social and health registers for research purposes. The aim of the current paper is to provide an overview of the Danish population-based registers in public health and health-related research, and to discuss their strengths...... and limitations. METHODS: Danish registers on somatic and psychiatric hospital contacts as well as care provided by general practitioners were reviewed. The availability of demographic, individual-level variables of relevance for health-related research was summarized. RESULTS: Since 1968, every person living...... of prescribed medications, and a complete follow-up with respect to causes of death support public health studies surveying trends of prevalence and incidence. Historical data on psychiatric and somatic hospitalizations since 1969 and 1977, respectively, allow an in-depth assessment of the burden of disease...

Is Probabilistic Evidence a Source of Knowledge?

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Ori; Turri, John

2015-01-01

We report a series of experiments examining whether people ascribe knowledge for true beliefs based on probabilistic evidence. Participants were less likely to ascribe knowledge for beliefs based on probabilistic evidence than for beliefs based on perceptual evidence (Experiments 1 and 2A) or testimony providing causal information (Experiment 2B).…

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

Undecidability of model-checking branching-time properties of stateless probabilistic pushdown process

OpenAIRE

Lin, T.

2014-01-01

In this paper, we settle a problem in probabilistic verification of infinite--state process (specifically, {\\it probabilistic pushdown process}). We show that model checking {\\it stateless probabilistic pushdown process} (pBPA) against {\\it probabilistic computational tree logic} (PCTL) is undecidable.

Probabilistic safety assessment as a standpoint for decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2001-01-01

This paper focuses on the role of probabilistic safety assessment in decision-making. The prerequisites for use of the results of probabilistic safety assessment and the criteria for the decision-making based on probabilistic safety assessment are discussed. The decision-making process is described. It provides a risk evaluation of impact of the issue under investigation. Selected examples are discussed, which highlight the described process. (authors)

Three-dimensional Probabilistic Earthquake Location Applied to 2002-2003 Mt. Etna Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Mostaccio, A.; Tuve', T.; Zuccarello, L.; Patane', D.; Saccorotti, G.; D'Agostino, M.

2005-12-01

Recorded seismicity for the Mt. Etna volcano, occurred during the 2002-2003 eruption, has been relocated using a probabilistic, non-linear, earthquake location approach. We used the software package NonLinLoc (Lomax et al., 2000) adopting the 3D velocity model obtained by Cocina et al., 2005. We applied our data through different algorithms: (1) via a grid-search; (2) via a Metropolis-Gibbs; and (3) via an Oct-tree. The Oct-Tree algorithm gives efficient, faster and accurate mapping of the PDF (Probability Density Function) of the earthquake location problem. More than 300 seismic events were analyzed in order to compare non-linear location results with the ones obtained by using traditional, linearized earthquake location algorithm such as Hypoellipse, and a 3D linearized inversion (Thurber, 1983). Moreover, we compare 38 focal mechanisms, chosen following stricta criteria selection, with the ones obtained by the 3D and 1D results. Although the presented approach is more of a traditional relocation application, probabilistic earthquake location could be used in routinely survey.

Availability, cost, and prescription patterns of antihypertensive medications in primary health care in China: a nationwide cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Meng; Zhang, Qiuli; Bai, Xueke; Wu, Chaoqun; Li, Yetong; Mossialos, Elias; Mensah, George A; Masoudi, Frederick A; Lu, Jiapeng; Li, Xi; Salas-Vega, Sebastian; Zhang, Anwen; Lu, Yuan; Nasir, Khurram; Krumholz, Harlan M; Jiang, Lixin

2017-12-09

Around 200 million adults in China have hypertension, but few are treated or achieve adequate control of their blood pressure. Available and affordable medications are important for successfully controlling hypertension, but little is known about current patterns of access to, and use of, antihypertensive medications in Chinese primary health care. We used data from a nationwide cross-sectional survey (the China Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Million Persons Project primary health care survey), which was undertaken between November, 2016 and May, 2017, to assess the availability, cost, and prescription patterns of 62 antihypertensive medications at primary health-care sites across 31 Chinese provinces. We surveyed 203 community health centres, 401 community health stations, 284 township health centres, and 2474 village clinics to assess variation in availability, cost, and prescription by economic region and type of site. We also assessed the use of high-value medications, defined as guideline-recommended and low-cost. We also examined the association of medication cost with availability and prescription patterns. Our study sample included 3362 primary health-care sites and around 1 million people (613 638 people at 2758 rural sites and 478 393 people at 604 urban sites). Of the 3362 sites, 8·1% (95% CI 7·2-9·1) stocked no antihypertensive medications and 33·8% (32·2-35·4) stocked all four classes that were routinely used. Village clinics and sites in the western region of China had the lowest availability. Only 32·7% (32·2-33·3) of all sites stocked high-value medications, and few high-value medications were prescribed (11·2% [10·9-11·6] of all prescription records). High-cost medications were more likely to be prescribed than low-cost alternatives. China has marked deficiencies in the availability, cost, and prescription of antihypertensive medications. High-value medications are not preferentially used. Future efforts to

Measuring human rights violations in a conflict-affected country: results from a nationwide cluster survey in Central African Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberts Les

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Measuring human rights violations is particularly challenging during or after armed conflict. A recent nationwide survey in the Central African Republic produced estimates of rates of grave violations against children and adults affected by armed conflict, using an approach known as the "Neighborhood Method". Methods In June and July, 2009, a random household survey was conducted based on population estimates from the 2003 national census. Clusters were assigned systematically proportional to population size. Respondents in randomly selected households were interviewed regarding incidents of killing, intentional injury, recruitment into armed groups, abduction, sexual abuse and rape between January 1, 2008 and the date of interview, occurring in their homes' and those of their three closest neighbors. Results Sixty of the selected 69 clusters were surveyed. In total, 599 women were interviewed about events in 2,370 households representing 13,669 persons. Estimates of annual rates of each violation occurring per 1000 people in each of two strata are provided for children between the ages of five and 17, adults 18 years of age and older and the entire population five years and older, along with a combined and weighted national rate. The national rates for children age five to 17 were estimated to be 0.98/1000/year (95% CI: 0.18 - 1.78 for recruitment, 2.56/1000/year (95% CI: 1.50 - 3.62 for abduction, 1.13/1000/year (95% CI: 0.33 - 1.93 for intentional injury, 10.72/1000 girls/year (95% CI: 7.40 - 14.04 for rape, and 4.80/1000 girls/year (95% CI: 2.61 - 6.00 for sexual abuse. No reports of any violation against a person under the age of five were recorded and there were no reports of rape or sexual abuse of males. No children were reported to have been killed during the recall period. Rape and abduction were the most frequently reported events. Conclusions The population-based figures greatly augment existing information on

Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; Nauta, Maarten; Havelaar, Arie H.; Fels, Ine van der

2006-01-01

We discuss an application of probabilistic inversion techniques to a model of campylobacter transmission in chicken processing lines. Such techniques are indicated when we wish to quantify a model which is new and perhaps unfamiliar to the expert community. In this case there are no measurements for estimating model parameters, and experts are typically unable to give a considered judgment. In such cases, experts are asked to quantify their uncertainty regarding variables which can be predicted by the model. The experts' distributions (after combination) are then pulled back onto the parameter space of the model, a process termed 'probabilistic inversion'. This study illustrates two such techniques, iterative proportional fitting (IPF) and PARmeter fitting for uncertain models (PARFUM). In addition, we illustrate how expert judgement on predicted observable quantities in combination with probabilistic inversion may be used for model validation and/or model criticism

Nationwide epidemiological survey of early chronic pancreatitis in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Masamune, Atsushi; Kikuta, Kazuhiro; Nabeshima, Tatsuhide; Nakano, Eriko; Hirota, Morihisa; Kanno, Atsushi; Kume, Kiyoshi; Hamada, Shin; Ito, Tetsuhide; Fujita, Motokazu; Irisawa, Atsushi; Nakashima, Masanori; Hanada, Keiji; Eguchi, Takaaki; Kato, Ryusuke; Inatomi, Osamu; Shirane, Akio; Takeyama, Yoshifumi; Tsuji, Ichiro; Shimosegawa, Tooru

2017-08-01

The world's first diagnostic criteria for early CP were proposed in 2009 in Japan. This study aimed to clarify the clinico-epidemiological features of early CP in Japan. Patients with early CP who were diagnosed according to the diagnostic criteria for early CP and had visited the selected hospitals in 2011 were surveyed. The study consisted of two-stage surveys: the number of patients with early CP was estimated by the first questionnaire and their clinical features were assessed by the second questionnaire. The estimated number of early CP patients was 5410 (95% confidence interval 3675-6945), with an overall prevalence of 4.2 per 100,000 persons. The number of patients who were newly diagnosed with early CP was estimated to be 1330 (95% confidence interval 1058-1602), with an annual incidence of 1.0 per 100,000 persons. Detailed clinical information was obtained in 151 patients in the second survey. The male-to-female sex ratio was 1.32:1. The mean age was 60.4 and the mean age at disease onset was 55.4. Idiopathic (47.7%) and alcoholic (45.0%) were the two most common etiologies. Proportions of female and idiopathic cases were higher in early CP than in definite CP. Hyperechoic foci without shadowing and stranding were the most common findings on endoscopic ultrasonography. The clinical profiles of early CP patients who showed lobularity with honeycombing on endoscopic ultrasonography or previous episodes of acute pancreatitis were similar to those of definite CP patients. We clarified the current status of early CP in Japan.

Analysis of truncation limit in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, Marko

2005-01-01

A truncation limit defines the boundaries of what is considered in the probabilistic safety assessment and what is neglected. The truncation limit that is the focus here is the truncation limit on the size of the minimal cut set contribution at which to cut off. A new method was developed, which defines truncation limit in probabilistic safety assessment. The method specifies truncation limits with more stringency than presenting existing documents dealing with truncation criteria in probabilistic safety assessment do. The results of this paper indicate that the truncation limits for more complex probabilistic safety assessments, which consist of larger number of basic events, should be more severe than presently recommended in existing documents if more accuracy is desired. The truncation limits defined by the new method reduce the relative errors of importance measures and produce more accurate results for probabilistic safety assessment applications. The reduced relative errors of importance measures can prevent situations, where the acceptability of change of equipment under investigation according to RG 1.174 would be shifted from region, where changes can be accepted, to region, where changes cannot be accepted, if the results would be calculated with smaller truncation limit

Limited probabilistic risk assessment applications in plant backfitting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desaedeleer, G.

1987-01-01

Plant backfitting programs are defined on the basis of deterministic (e.g. Systematic Evaluation Program) or probabilistic (e.g. Probabilistic Risk Assessment) approaches. Each approach provides valuable assets in defining the program and has its own advantages and disadvantages. Ideally one should combine the strong points of each approach. This chapter summarizes actual experience gained from combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to define and implement PWR backfitting programs. Such combinations relate to limited applications of probabilistic techniques and are illustrated for upgrading fluid systems. These evaluations allow sound and rational optimization systems upgrade. However, the boundaries of the reliability analysis need to be clearly defined and system reliability may have to go beyond classical boundaries (e.g. identification of weak links in support systems). Also the implementation of upgrade on a system per system basis is not necessarily cost-effective. (author)

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Fossum, A. F.

1990-01-01

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Probabilistic dual heuristic programming-based adaptive critic

Science.gov (United States)

Herzallah, Randa

2010-02-01

Adaptive critic (AC) methods have common roots as generalisations of dynamic programming for neural reinforcement learning approaches. Since they approximate the dynamic programming solutions, they are potentially suitable for learning in noisy, non-linear and non-stationary environments. In this study, a novel probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP)-based AC controller is proposed. Distinct to current approaches, the proposed probabilistic (DHP) AC method takes uncertainties of forward model and inverse controller into consideration. Therefore, it is suitable for deterministic and stochastic control problems characterised by functional uncertainty. Theoretical development of the proposed method is validated by analytically evaluating the correct value of the cost function which satisfies the Bellman equation in a linear quadratic control problem. The target value of the probabilistic critic network is then calculated and shown to be equal to the analytically derived correct value. Full derivation of the Riccati solution for this non-standard stochastic linear quadratic control problem is also provided. Moreover, the performance of the proposed probabilistic controller is demonstrated on linear and non-linear control examples.

Probabilistic Load Flow

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2008-01-01

This paper reviews the development of the probabilistic load flow (PLF) techniques. Applications of the PLF techniques in different areas of power system steady-state analysis are also discussed. The purpose of the review is to identify different available PLF techniques and their corresponding...

The Association between Use of Mobile Phones after Lights Out and Sleep Disturbances among Japanese Adolescents: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Munezawa, Takeshi; Kaneita, Yoshitaka; Osaki, Yoneatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Minowa, Masumi; Suzuki, Kenji; Higuchi, Susumu; Mori, Junichiro; Yamamoto, Ryuichiro; Ohida, Takashi

2011-01-01

Study Objective: The objective of this study was to examine the association between the use of mobile phones after lights out and sleep disturbances among Japanese adolescents. Design and Setting: This study was designed as a cross-sectional survey. The targets were students attending junior and senior high schools throughout Japan. Sample schools were selected by cluster sampling. Self-reported anonymous questionnaires were sent to schools for all students to fill out. Participants: A total of 95,680 adolescents responded. The overall response rate was 62.9%, and 94,777 questionnaires were subjected to analysis. Intervention: N/A Measurements and Results: Daily mobile phone use, even if only for a brief moment every day, was reported by 84.4%. Moreover, as for use of mobile phones after lights out, 8.3% reported using their mobile phone for calling every day and 17.6% reported using it for sending text messages every day. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that mobile phone use for calling and for sending text messages after lights out was associated with sleep disturbances (short sleep duration, subjective poor sleep quality, excessive daytime sleepiness, and insomnia symptoms) independent of covariates and independent of each other. Conclusion: This study showed that the use of mobile phones for calling and for sending text messages after lights out is associated with sleep disturbances among Japanese adolescents. However, there were some limitations, such as small effect sizes, in this study. More studies that examine the details of this association are necessary to establish strategies for sleep hygiene in the future. Citation: Munezawa T; Kaneita Y; Osaki Y; Kanda H; Minowa M; Suzuki K; Higuchi S; Mori J; Yamamoto R; Ohida T. The association between use of mobile phones after lights out and sleep disturbances among Japanese adolescents: a nationwide cross-sectional survey. SLEEP 2011;34(8):1013-1020. PMID:21804663

Probabilistic inversion in priority setting of emerging zoonoses.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kurowicka, D.; Bucura, C.; Cooke, R.; Havelaar, A.H.

2010-01-01

This article presents methodology of applying probabilistic inversion in combination with expert judgment in priority setting problem. Experts rank scenarios according to severity. A linear multi-criteria analysis model underlying the expert preferences is posited. Using probabilistic inversion, a

Gender-Related Differential Effects of Obesity on Health-Related Quality of Life via Obesity-Related Comorbidities: A Mediation Analysis of a French Nationwide Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Audureau, Etienne; Pouchot, Jacques; Coste, Joël

2016-05-01

Negative effects of obesity on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) have been reported, especially in women, but the relative contribution of cardiometabolic and other obesity-related comorbidities to such effects remains unclear. Our objective was to model the association by sex between body mass index and HRQoL and to precisely quantify the indirect effects mediated by obesity-related comorbidities. Data were drawn from the latest French Decennial Health Survey, a nationwide cross-sectional study conducted in 2003 (21 239 adults aged 25-64 years analyzed). HRQoL was measured by the 36-item short-form health survey questionnaire. A mediation analysis based on the counterfactual framework was performed to quantify the proportion of obesity effects on HRQoL mediated by related comorbidities, including cardiometabolic risk factors (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia) and diseases (ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular disease), musculoskeletal disorders, and asthma. After multiple linear regression, inverse associations were found between increasing body mass index category and physically oriented and most mentally oriented 36-item short-form health survey dimensions, with evidence of greater effects in women. Mediation analysis revealed that obesity effects were significantly mediated by several comorbidities, more apparently in men (eg, proportion of obesity class II total effect mediated via cardiometabolic factors: general health 27.0% [men] versus 13.6% [women]; proportion of obesity class II total effect mediated via total count of comorbidities: physical functioning 17.8% [men] versus 7.7% [women] and general health 37.1% [men] versus 20.3% [women]). Women have a greater overall impact of obesity on HRQoL, but with proportionally lower effects mediated by cardiometabolic and other obesity-related conditions, suggesting the possible role of other specific psychosocial processes. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Birth order and paediatric allergic disease: A nationwide longitudinal survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Kikkawa, T; Yorifuji, T; Fujii, Y; Yashiro, M; Okada, A; Ikeda, M; Doi, H; Tsukahara, H

2018-05-01

Environmental factors seem to be related to the incidence of allergic disease. Children with a later birth order are often exposed to environments, where pathogens and endotoxins can be found, and thus have a higher risk of developing infectious diseases. Therefore, birth order is regarded as an indicator that reflects post-natal environment. However, longitudinal studies are limited on this subject. This study sought to elucidate the relationships between birth order and allergic disease. From a nationwide longitudinal study that followed children born in 2001 (n = 47 015), we selected doctors' visits for 3 types of allergic disease-bronchial asthma, food allergy and atopic dermatitis-from infancy to 12 years of age and conducted binomial log-linear regression analysis to evaluate the associations between birth order and these diseases. We adjusted for the child and parental factors and estimated risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each outcome. The associations between birth order and bronchial asthma were diverse; later birth order increased the risk in early childhood, but decreased the risks during school age. For example, the adjusted RR comparing third-born or higher and first-born children was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.05-1.35) between 30 and 42 months of age, but was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.65-0.89) between 10 and 11 years. Later birth order was generally protective for food allergy but increased the risk of atopic dermatitis. The influence of birth order depended on the type of allergic disease and the childhood period. Childhood is unique in terms of physical and immunological development, and the immune response to the post-natal environment in childhood appears to be heterogeneous. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Probabilistic cloning of three symmetric states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jimenez, O.; Bergou, J.; Delgado, A.

2010-01-01

We study the probabilistic cloning of three symmetric states. These states are defined by a single complex quantity, the inner product among them. We show that three different probabilistic cloning machines are necessary to optimally clone all possible families of three symmetric states. We also show that the optimal cloning probability of generating M copies out of one original can be cast as the quotient between the success probability of unambiguously discriminating one and M copies of symmetric states.

Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T.; Thacker, B.; Riha, D.; Leung, C. P.

1992-01-01

The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

Probabilistic Design of Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Ferreira, C.B.

2011-01-01

Wave energy has a large potential for contributing significantly to production of renewable energy. However, the wave energy sector is still not able to deliver cost competitive and reliable solutions. But the sector has already demonstrated several proofs of concepts. The design of wave energy...... devices is a new and expanding technical area where there is no tradition for probabilistic design—in fact very little full scale devices has been build to date, so it can be said that no design tradition really exists in this area. For this reason it is considered to be of great importance to develop...... and advocate for a probabilistic design approach, as it is assumed (in other areas this has been demonstrated) that this leads to more economical designs compared to designs based on deterministic methods. In the present paper a general framework for probabilistic design and reliability analysis of wave energy...

Some thoughts on the future of probabilistic structural design of nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stancampiano, P.A.

1978-01-01

This paper presents some views on the future role of probabilistic methods in the structural design of nuclear components. The existing deterministic design approach is discussed and compared to the probabilistic approach. Some of the objections to both deterministic and probabilistic design are listed. Extensive research and development activities are required to mature the probabilistic approach suficiently to make it cost-effective and competitive with current deterministic design practices. The required research activities deal with probabilistic methods development, more realistic casual failure mode models development, and statistical data models development. A quasi-probabilistic structural design approach is recommended which accounts for the random error in the design models. (Auth.)

Human reliability. Is probabilistic human reliability assessment possible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosneron Dupin, F.

1996-01-01

The possibility of carrying out Probabilistic Human Reliability Assessments (PHRA) is often doubted. Basing ourselves on the experience Electricite de France (EDF) has acquired in Probabilistic Safety Assessments for nuclear power plants, we show why the uncertainty of PHRA is very high. We then specify the limits of generic data and models for PHRA: very important factors are often poorly taken into account. To account for them, you need to have proper understanding of the actual context in which operators work. This demands surveys on the field (power plant and simulator) all of which must be carried out with behaviours science skills. The idea of estimating the probabilities of operator failure must not be abandoned, but probabilities must be given less importance, for they are only approximate indications. The qualitative aspects of PHRA should be given greater value (analysis process and qualitative insights). That is why the description (illustrated by case histories) of the main mechanisms of human behaviour, and of their manifestations in the nuclear power plant context (in terms of habits, attitudes, and informal methods and organization in particular) should be an important part of PHRA handbooks. These handbooks should also insist more on methods for gathering information on the actual context of the work of operators. Under these conditions, the PHRA should be possible and even desirable as a process for systematic analysis and assessment of human intervention. (author). 24 refs, 2 figs, 1 tab

Human reliability. Is probabilistic human reliability assessment possible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mosneron Dupin, F

1997-12-31

The possibility of carrying out Probabilistic Human Reliability Assessments (PHRA) is often doubted. Basing ourselves on the experience Electricite de France (EDF) has acquired in Probabilistic Safety Assessments for nuclear power plants, we show why the uncertainty of PHRA is very high. We then specify the limits of generic data and models for PHRA: very important factors are often poorly taken into account. To account for them, you need to have proper understanding of the actual context in which operators work. This demands surveys on the field (power plant and simulator) all of which must be carried out with behaviours science skills. The idea of estimating the probabilities of operator failure must not be abandoned, but probabilities must be given less importance, for they are only approximate indications. The qualitative aspects of PHRA should be given greater value (analysis process and qualitative insights). That is why the description (illustrated by case histories) of the main mechanisms of human behaviour, and of their manifestations in the nuclear power plant context (in terms of habits, attitudes, and informal methods and organization in particular) should be an important part of PHRA handbooks. These handbooks should also insist more on methods for gathering information on the actual context of the work of operators. Under these conditions, the PHRA should be possible and even desirable as a process for systematic analysis and assessment of human intervention. (author). 24 refs, 2 figs, 1 tab.

Probabilistic seasonal Forecasts to deterministic Farm Leve Decisions: Innovative Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mwangi, M. W.

2015-12-01

Climate change and vulnerability are major challenges in ensuring household food security. Climate information services have the potential to cushion rural households from extreme climate risks. However, most the probabilistic nature of climate information products is not easily understood by majority of smallholder farmers. Despite the probabilistic nature, climate information have proved to be a valuable climate risk adaptation strategy at the farm level. This calls for innovative ways to help farmers understand and apply climate information services to inform their farm level decisions. The study endeavored to co-design and test appropriate innovation systems for climate information services uptake and scale up necessary for achieving climate risk development. In addition it also determined the conditions necessary to support the effective performance of the proposed innovation system. Data and information sources included systematic literature review, secondary sources, government statistics, focused group discussions, household surveys and semi-structured interviews. Data wasanalyzed using both quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques. Quantitative data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative techniques, which involved establishing the categories and themes, relationships/patterns and conclusions in line with the study objectives. Sustainable livelihood, reduced household poverty and climate change resilience were the impact that resulted from the study.

Cooperation in an evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma game with probabilistic strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Haihong; Dai Qionglin; Cheng Hongyan; Yang Junzhong

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Introducing probabilistic strategies instead of the pure C/D in the PDG. ► The strategies patterns depends on interaction structures and updating rules. ► There exists an optimal increment of the probabilistic strategy. - Abstract: In this work, we investigate an evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma game in structured populations with probabilistic strategies instead of the pure strategies of cooperation and defection. We explore the model in details by considering different strategy update rules and different population structures. We find that the distribution of probabilistic strategies patterns is dependent on both the interaction structures and the updating rules. We also find that, when an individual updates her strategy by increasing or decreasing her probabilistic strategy a certain amount towards that of her opponent, there exists an optimal increment of the probabilistic strategy at which the cooperator frequency reaches its maximum.

Probabilistic meta-analysis of risk from the exposure to Hg in artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

De Miguel, Eduardo; Clavijo, Diana; Ortega, Marcelo F; Gómez, Amaia

2014-08-01

Colombia is one of the largest per capita mercury polluters in the world as a consequence of its artisanal gold mining activities. The severity of this problem in terms of potential health effects was evaluated by means of a probabilistic risk assessment carried out in the twelve departments (or provinces) in Colombia with the largest gold production. The two exposure pathways included in the risk assessment were inhalation of elemental Hg vapors and ingestion of fish contaminated with methyl mercury. Exposure parameters for the adult population (especially rates of fish consumption) were obtained from nation-wide surveys and concentrations of Hg in air and of methyl-mercury in fish were gathered from previous scientific studies. Fish consumption varied between departments and ranged from 0 to 0.3 kg d(-1). Average concentrations of total mercury in fish (70 data) ranged from 0.026 to 3.3 μg g(-1). A total of 550 individual measurements of Hg in workshop air (ranging from risk. All but two of the distributions of Hazard Quotients (HQ) associated with ingestion of Hg-contaminated fish for the twelve regions evaluated presented median values higher than the threshold value of 1 and the 95th percentiles ranged from 4 to 90. In the case of exposure to Hg vapors, minimum values of HQ for the general population exceeded 1 in all the towns included in this study, and the HQs for miner-smelters burning the amalgam is two orders of magnitude higher, reaching values of 200 for the 95th percentile. Even acknowledging the conservative assumptions included in the risk assessment and the uncertainties associated with it, its results clearly reveal the exorbitant levels of risk endured not only by miner-smelters but also by the general population of artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic liver atlas construction.

Science.gov (United States)

Dura, Esther; Domingo, Juan; Ayala, Guillermo; Marti-Bonmati, Luis; Goceri, E

2017-01-13

Anatomical atlases are 3D volumes or shapes representing an organ or structure of the human body. They contain either the prototypical shape of the object of interest together with other shapes representing its statistical variations (statistical atlas) or a probability map of belonging to the object (probabilistic atlas). Probabilistic atlases are mostly built with simple estimations only involving the data at each spatial location. A new method for probabilistic atlas construction that uses a generalized linear model is proposed. This method aims to improve the estimation of the probability to be covered by the liver. Furthermore, all methods to build an atlas involve previous coregistration of the sample of shapes available. The influence of the geometrical transformation adopted for registration in the quality of the final atlas has not been sufficiently investigated. The ability of an atlas to adapt to a new case is one of the most important quality criteria that should be taken into account. The presented experiments show that some methods for atlas construction are severely affected by the previous coregistration step. We show the good performance of the new approach. Furthermore, results suggest that extremely flexible registration methods are not always beneficial, since they can reduce the variability of the atlas and hence its ability to give sensible values of probability when used as an aid in segmentation of new cases.

Application of simulation techniques in the probabilistic fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Ruyter van Steveninck, J.L.

1995-03-01

The Monte Carlo simulation is applied on a model of the fracture mechanics in order to assess the applicability of this simulation technique in the probabilistic fracture mechanics. By means of the fracture mechanics model the brittle fracture of a steel container or pipe with defects can be predicted. By means of the Monte Carlo simulation also the uncertainty regarding failures can be determined. Based on the variations in the toughness of the fracture and the defect dimensions the distribution of the chance of failure is determined. Also attention is paid to the impact of dependency between uncertain variables. Furthermore, the influence of the applied distributions of the uncertain variables and non-destructive survey on the chance of failure is analyzed. The Monte Carlo simulation results agree quite well with the results of other methods from the probabilistic fracture mechanics. If an analytic expression can be found for the chance of failure, it is possible to determine the variation of the chance of failure, next to an estimation of the chance of failure. It also appears that the dependency between the uncertain variables has a large impact on the chance of failure. It is also concluded from the simulation that the chance of failure strongly depends on the crack depth, and therefore of the distribution of the crack depth. 15 figs., 7 tabs., 12 refs

Probabilistic safety assessment goals in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snell, V.G.

1986-01-01

CANDU safety philosphy, both in design and in licensing, has always had a strong bias towards quantitative probabilistically-based goals derived from comparative safety. Formal probabilistic safety assessment began in Canada as a design tool. The influence of this carried over later on into the definition of the deterministic safety guidelines used in CANDU licensing. Design goals were further developed which extended the consequence/frequency spectrum of 'acceptable' events, from the two points defined by the deterministic single/dual failure analysis, to a line passing through lower and higher frequencies. Since these were design tools, a complete risk summation was not necessary, allowing a cutoff at low event frequencies while preserving the identification of the most significant safety-related events. These goals gave a logical framework for making decisions on implementing design changes proposed as a result of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. Performing this analysis became a regulatory requirement, and the design goals remained the framework under which this was submitted. Recently, there have been initiatives to incorporate more detailed probabilistic safety goals into the regulatory process in Canada. These range from far-reaching safety optimization across society, to initiatives aimed at the nuclear industry only. The effectiveness of the latter is minor at very low and very high event frequencies; at medium frequencies, a justification against expenditures per life saved in other industries should be part of the goal setting

Probabilistic Design of Coastal Flood Defences in Vietnam

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mai Van, C.

2010-01-01

This study further develops the method of probabilistic design and to address a knowledge gap in its application regarding safety and reliability, risk assessment and risk evaluation to the fields of flood defences. The thesis discusses: - a generic probabilistic design framework for assessing flood

Probabilistic Teleportation via Quantum Channel with Partial Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Desheng Liu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Two novel schemes are proposed to teleport an unknown two-level quantum state probabilistically when the sender and the receiver only have partial information about the quantum channel, respectively. This is distinct from the fact that either the sender or the receiver has entire information about the quantum channel in previous schemes for probabilistic teleportation. Theoretical analysis proves that these schemes are straightforward, efficient and cost-saving. The concrete realization procedures of our schemes are presented in detail, and the result shows that our proposals could extend the application range of probabilistic teleportation.

Probabilistic assessment of pressure vessel and piping reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sundararajan, C.

1986-01-01

The paper presents a critical review of the state-of-the-art in probabilistic assessment of pressure vessel and piping reliability. First the differences in assessing the reliability directly from historical failure data and indirectly by a probabilistic analysis of the failure phenomenon are discussed and the advantages and disadvantages are pointed out. The rest of the paper deals with the latter approach of reliability assessment. Methods of probabilistic reliability assessment are described and major projects where these methods are applied for pressure vessel and piping problems are discussed. An extensive list of references is provided at the end of the paper

International survey of living PSA and safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.; Laakso, K.; Lehtinen, E.; Bjoere, S.

1992-01-01

The report contains an international overview of applications of living probabilistic assessment and development of operational safety indicators. Features of an ideal living PSA tool are summarized as well as a limited survey of code systems for managing a living probabilistic safety assessment (living PSA) is included. The international survey is used as an input for planning and performance of related tasks within the nordic NKS/SIK-1 project conducted in 1990-93. The research notes are distributed to the Nordic organizations involved or interested in the subject. The report includes an overview and conclusions from technical reports and articles available and presentations and discussions related to development and use of above methods for the evaluation and management of the operational safety of nuclear power plants. A large part of this material is based on material collected and discussed in connection to international specialist meetings relating to the subject

Probabilistic calculation of dose commitment from uranium mill tailings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-10-01

The report discusses in a general way considerations of uncertainty in relation to probabilistic modelling. An example of a probabilistic calculation applied to the behaviour of uranium mill tailings is given

Nationwide shifts in the double burden of overweight and underweight in Vietnamese adults in 2000 and 2005: two national nutrition surveys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mai Le B

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In developing countries, overweight prevalence is increasing while underweight prevalence is still high. This situation is known as the double nutrition burden. Both underweight and overweight are related to increased risk of chronic non-communicable diseases, reduced well-being and quality of life. This study aims to compare the prevalence of overweight and underweight among Vietnamese adults in 2000 and 2005. Methods The study was based on two nationally representative surveys, the National Nutrition Survey 2000 (14,452 subjects and the National Adult Obesity Survey 2005 (17,213 subjects. Adults aged 25-64 years were sampled to be nationally representative. Multiple multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association of underweight and overweight with socio-economic indicators. Results The distribution of BMI across the population and population groups indicated a shift towards higher BMI levels in 2005 as compared to 2000. The nationwide prevalence of overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 was 6.6% and 0.4% respectively in 2005, almost twice the rates of 2000 (3.5% and 0.2%. Using the Asian BMI cut-off of 23 kg/m2 the overweight prevalence was 16.3% in 2005 and 11.7% in 2000. In contrast, the underweight prevalence (BMI 2 of 20.9% in 2005 was lower than the rate of 25.0% in 2000. Women were more likely to be both underweight and overweight as compared to men in both 2000 and 2005. Urban residents were more likely to be overweight and less likely to be underweight as compared to rural residents in both years. The shifts from underweight to overweight were clearer among the higher food expenditure levels. Conclusions The double nutrition burden was clearly present in Vietnam. The distribution of BMI across the population groups generally indicated a shift towards higher BMI levels in 2005 as compared to 2000. The prevalence of overweight was increased while the declined level

Nursing staff and euthanasia in the Netherlands. A nation-wide survey on attitudes and involvement in decision making and the performance of euthanasia.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Francke, A.L.; Albers, G.; Bilsen, J.; Veer, A.J.E. de; Onwuteaka-Philipsen, B.D.

2016-01-01

Objectives: To give insight into Dutch nursing staff’s attitudes and involvement regarding euthanasia. Methods: The sample was recruited from a nation-wide existent research panel of registered nurses and certified nursing assistants. Descriptive analyses and multivariate logistic regression

Probabilistic safety goals. Phase 3 - Status report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT (Finland)); Knochenhauer, M. (Relcon Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden))

2009-07-15

The first phase of the project (2006) described the status, concepts and history of probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants. The second and third phases (2007-2008) have provided guidance related to the resolution of some of the problems identified, and resulted in a common understanding regarding the definition of safety goals. The basic aim of phase 3 (2009) has been to increase the scope and level of detail of the project, and to start preparations of a guidance document. Based on the conclusions from the previous project phases, the following issues have been covered: 1) Extension of international overview. Analysis of results from the questionnaire performed within the ongoing OECD/NEA WGRISK activity on probabilistic safety criteria, including participation in the preparation of the working report for OECD/NEA/WGRISK (to be finalised in phase 4). 2) Use of subsidiary criteria and relations between these (to be finalised in phase 4). 3) Numerical criteria when using probabilistic analyses in support of deterministic safety analysis (to be finalised in phase 4). 4) Guidance for the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic safety criteria (to be finalised in phase 4). (LN)

Probabilistic safety goals. Phase 3 - Status report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.-E.; Knochenhauer, M.

2009-07-01

The first phase of the project (2006) described the status, concepts and history of probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants. The second and third phases (2007-2008) have provided guidance related to the resolution of some of the problems identified, and resulted in a common understanding regarding the definition of safety goals. The basic aim of phase 3 (2009) has been to increase the scope and level of detail of the project, and to start preparations of a guidance document. Based on the conclusions from the previous project phases, the following issues have been covered: 1) Extension of international overview. Analysis of results from the questionnaire performed within the ongoing OECD/NEA WGRISK activity on probabilistic safety criteria, including participation in the preparation of the working report for OECD/NEA/WGRISK (to be finalised in phase 4). 2) Use of subsidiary criteria and relations between these (to be finalised in phase 4). 3) Numerical criteria when using probabilistic analyses in support of deterministic safety analysis (to be finalised in phase 4). 4) Guidance for the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic safety criteria (to be finalised in phase 4). (LN)

Asthma-like symptoms, diagnostic tests, and asthma medication use in children and adolescents: a population-based nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira-Magalhães, Manuel; Sá-Sousa, Ana; Morais-Almeida, Mário; Pité, Helena; Azevedo, Luis Filipe; Azevedo, Maria Inês; Bugalho-Almeida, António; Fonseca, João Almeida

2016-01-01

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of asthma-like symptoms, current asthma (CA), asthma diagnostic tests, and inhaled medication use in a nationwide pediatric population (Pediatric-specific data from a cross-sectional, population-based telephone survey (INAsma study) in Portugal were analyzed. CA was defined as lifetime asthma and (1) wheezing, (2) waking with breathlessness, or (3) asthma attack in the previous 12 months, and/or (4) taking asthma medication at the time of the interview. In total, 716 children were included. The prevalence of asthma-like symptoms was 39.4% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 35.7-43.3]. The most common symptoms were waking with cough (30.9%) and wheezing (19.1%). The prevalence of CA was 8.4% (95% CI: 6.6-10.7). Among children with CA, 79.9% and 52.9% reported prior allergy testing and pulmonary function testing (PFT), respectively. Inhaled medication use in the previous 12 months was reported by 67.6% (reliever inhalers, 40.1%; controller inhalers, 41.5%). Those who only used inhaled reliever medications experienced more asthma attacks [odds ratio (OR): 2.69]. Significantly fewer children with CA living in rural areas than those living in urban areas had undergone PFT or used inhaled medication (OR: 0.06 for PFT, 0.20 for medication]. The prevalence of CA in the Portuguese pediatric population was 8.4%. Only half of children with CA had ever undergone PFT; more than half did not use controller inhalers, and those who only used reliever inhalers reported more asthma attacks. These findings suggest that asthma management has been substandard, mainly in rural areas.

Probabilistic Linguistic Power Aggregation Operators for Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agbodah Kobina

2017-12-01

Full Text Available As an effective aggregation tool, power average (PA allows the input arguments being aggregated to support and reinforce each other, which provides more versatility in the information aggregation process. Under the probabilistic linguistic term environment, we deeply investigate the new power aggregation (PA operators for fusing the probabilistic linguistic term sets (PLTSs. In this paper, we firstly develop the probabilistic linguistic power average (PLPA, the weighted probabilistic linguistic power average (WPLPA operators, the probabilistic linguistic power geometric (PLPG and the weighted probabilistic linguistic power geometric (WPLPG operators. At the same time, we carefully analyze the properties of these new aggregation operators. With the aid of the WPLPA and WPLPG operators, we further design the approaches for the application of multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM with PLTSs. Finally, we use an illustrated example to expound our proposed methods and verify their performances.

Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

OpenAIRE

Guerra-Pujol, Enrique

2015-01-01

The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents simple Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue bus hypothetical. In addition, the author expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, i.e. in terms of probabilities and natural frequencies.

Implementing a nationwide criteria-based emergency medical dispatch system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Mikkel S; Johnsen, Søren Paaske; Sørensen, Jan Nørtved

2013-01-01

A criteria-based nationwide Emergency Medical Dispatch (EMD) system was recently implemented in Denmark. We described the system and studied its ability to triage patients according to the severity of their condition by analysing hospital admission and case-fatality risks.......A criteria-based nationwide Emergency Medical Dispatch (EMD) system was recently implemented in Denmark. We described the system and studied its ability to triage patients according to the severity of their condition by analysing hospital admission and case-fatality risks....

Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aguilar-Salinas Carlos A

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS outcome model Methods The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years. Results The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2; this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5. Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Conclusions Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades.

Epidemiology of adulthood drowning deaths in Bangladesh: Findings from a nationwide health and injury survey [version 1; referees: 2 approved

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Jahangir Hossain

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Annual global death due to drowning accounts for 372,000 lives, 90% of which occur in low and middle income countries. Life in Bangladesh exposes adults and children to may water bodies for daily household needs, and as a result drowning is common. In Bangladesh, due to lack of systemic data collection, drowning among adults is unknown; most research is focused on childhood drowning. The aim of the present study was to explore the epidemiology of adulthood drowning deaths in Bangladesh. Methodology: A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted from January to December in 2003 among 171,366 rural and urban households, with a sample of 819,429 individuals to determine the epidemiology of adulthood drowning in Bangladesh.   Results:  Annual fatal drowning incidence among adults was 5.85/100,000 individuals. Of these, 71.4% were male and 28.6% were female (RR 2.39. In total, 90% of the fatalities were from rural areas. Rural populations were also found to have a 8.58 times higher risk of drowning than those in urban areas. About 95% of drowning occurred in natural water bodies. About 61.6% of the deaths occurred at the scene followed by 33.5% at the home. Of the drowning fatalities, 67% took place in water bodies within 100 meters of the household. Among the drowning fatalities 78.4% occurred in daylight between 7.00 and 18.00. Over 97% of the victims were from poor socio economic conditions with a monthly income tk. 6,000 ($94 or less. Only 25.5% of incidences were reported to the police station. Conclusions: Every year a significant number of adults die due to drowning in Bangladesh.  Populations living in rural areas, especially men, were the main victims of drowning. This survey finding might help policy makers and scientists to understand the drowning scenario among adults in Bangladesh.

Use of OECD/NEA Data Project Products in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cherkas, G.; Raducu, Gheorghe; Riznic, J.; Yalaoui, S.; Huang, Hui-Wen; Holy, Jaroslav; Holmberg, Jan-Erik; Sandberg, Jorma; Balmain, Michel; Bonnevialle, Anne-Marie; Curnier, Florence; Georgescu, Gabriel; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie; Lindner, Arndt; Fujimoto, Haruo; Ahn, Kwang-Il; Hwang, Taesuk; Jang, Seung-Cheol; Husarcek, Jan; Kovacs, Zoltan; Vazquez, Teresa; Johanson, Gunnar; Liwaang, Bo; Nyman, Ralph; Dang, Vinh; Schoen, Gerhard; Brook, Kevin; Hamblen, David; Siu, Nathan; Sturzebecher, Karl; Tobin, Margaret; Wood, Jeff; Amri, Abdallah; Breest, Axel

2014-01-01

The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA)/Committee for the Safety of Nuclear Installations' (CSNI) Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRISK) is tasked with supporting the improved use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in risk informed regulation and safety management through the analysis of results and the development of perspectives regarding potentially important risk contributors and associated risk reduction strategies. The task consists of the following major activities: Development, distribution, and completion of survey questionnaires; Analysis of survey questionnaire results at a task workshop; Preparation of the final task report. The main objectives of this task, as proposed by WGRISK and approved by CSNI, are the following: - Identification and characterization of the current uses of OECD data project products and data in support of PSA. In this context, the term 'products' refers to data analysis results, technical reports, and other project outputs. - Identification and characterization of technical and programmatic characteristics that either support or impede use of data project products in PSA. This includes an assessment of which PSA parameters could be potentially estimated from the various data project products and gaps between available product information and PSA data needs. - Identification of recommendations for enhancing the usefulness of data project products and the coordination between WGRISK and the data projects. This task report consists of the following sections: - Chapter 1 Provides a general overview of motivation and approach used for this task. - Chapter 2 Describes scope and objectives of the task. - Chapter 3 Provides an overview of the ICDE, FIRE, OPDE/CODAP, and COMPSIS data projects. For each project, the project objectives, project history, data collection methodology and quality assurance, project status, example PSA Applications, and information related to project participation is provided. - Chapter 4 Describes the

Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey

OpenAIRE

Chae, Hyeseon; Min, Kyungdoo; Youn, kanwoo; Park, Jinwoo; Kim, Kyungran; Kim, Hyocher; Lee, Kyungsuk

2014-01-01

Objectives This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. Methods The first Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. ...

Probabilistic Safety Goals for Nuclear Power Plants; Phases 2-4 / Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, Lisa; Knochenhauer, Michael; Holmberg, Jan-Erik; Rossi, Jukka

2011-05-01

identified, such as the problem of consistency in judgement, comparability of safety goals used in different industries, the relationship between criteria on different levels, and relations between criteria for level 2 and 3 PSA. In parallel, additional context information has been provided. This was achieved by extending the international overview by contributing to and benefiting from a survey on PSA safety criteria which was initiated in 2006 within the OECD/NEA Working Group Risk. Finally, a separate report has been issued providing general guidance concerning the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic criteria. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by safety authorities as a reference for risk-informed regulation. The outcome can have an impact on the requirements on PSA, e.g., regarding quality, scope, level of detail, and documentation. Finally, the results can be expected to support on-going activities concerning risk-informed applications

Probabilistic reconstruction of internal exposure for nuclear power plant workers using air concentration measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, I.; Burmistrov, D.

2000-01-01

Air surveys, whole-body counting, bioassays or combination of these measurements can be utilized for purposes or assessing internal doses to determine compliance with occupational dose equivalent limits. Air sampling with a little support provided by whole body counting and/or bioassays was often relied on in dose calculations. The utility of air sampling for internal dose reconstruction is addressed in this paper through the probabilistic analysis of environmental factors and their impact on dose estimates. In this paper we attempt to reconstruct an internal dose due to inhalation of beta + gamma emitting radionuclides for a contractual electrician, Mr. X. The data available for reconstruction of internal dose for Mr. X was found to be highly variable and uncertain. Uncertainty describes a lack of knowledge about a parameter, this lack of knowledge theoretically can be reduced, e.g., if more measurements were to be taken (for example, estimated activities for alpha-emitting radionuclides are uncertain due to the influence of naturally-occurring alpha-emitters). Variability describes the existence of different values that represent different environmental conditions (for example, the air concentrations of radionuclides may vary over time because of the different tasks performed by workers in the area). Variability can not be reduced by additional data collection because the varying values reflect the variable nature of the environment, not a lack of data. The high variability in measured air concentrations in the restricted areas of a LWR nuclear power plant where he worked do not allow adequate reconstruction of his individual internal dose using deterministic methods and therefore probabilistic methods are desirable. The guidance for probabilistic assessment developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency as well as recommendations of the National Council of Radiation Protection provide an adequate framework for probabilistic reconstruction of

Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

1985-01-01

This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

Environmental determinants of different blood lead levels in children: a quantile analysis from a nationwide survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Etchevers, Anne; Le Tertre, Alain; Lucas, Jean-Paul; Bretin, Philippe; Oulhote, Youssef; Le Bot, Barbara; Glorennec, Philippe

2015-01-01

Blood lead levels (BLLs) have substantially decreased in recent decades in children in France. However, further reducing exposure is a public health goal because there is no clear toxicological threshold. The identification of the environmental determinants of BLLs as well as risk factors associated with high BLLs is important to update prevention strategies. We aimed to estimate the contribution of environmental sources of lead to different BLLs in children in France. We enrolled 484 children aged from 6months to 6years, in a nationwide cross-sectional survey in 2008-2009. We measured lead concentrations in blood and environmental samples (water, soils, household settled dusts, paints, cosmetics and traditional cookware). We performed two models: a multivariate generalized additive model on the geometric mean (GM), and a quantile regression model on the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th quantile of BLLs. The GM of BLLs was 13.8μg/L (=1.38μg/dL) (95% confidence intervals (CI): 12.7-14.9) and the 90th quantile was 25.7μg/L (CI: 24.2-29.5). Household and common area dust, tap water, interior paint, ceramic cookware, traditional cosmetics, playground soil and dust, and environmental tobacco smoke were associated with the GM of BLLs. Household dust and tap water made the largest contributions to both the GM and the 90th quantile of BLLs. The concentration of lead in dust was positively correlated with all quantiles of BLLs even at low concentrations. Lead concentrations in tap water above 5μg/L were also positively correlated with the GM, 75th and 90th quantiles of BLLs in children drinking tap water. Preventative actions must target household settled dust and tap water to reduce the BLLs of children in France. The use of traditional cosmetics should be avoided whereas ceramic cookware should be limited to decorative purposes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The probabilistic approach in the licensing process and the development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Togo, Y.; Sato, K.

1981-01-01

The probabilistic approach has long seemed to be one of the most comprehensive methods for evaluating the safety of nuclear plants. So far, most of the guidelines and criteria for licensing are based on the deterministic concept. However, there have been a few examples to which the probabilistic approach was directly applied, such as the evaluation of aircraft crashes and turbine missiles. One may find other examples of such applications. However, a much more important role is now to be played by this concept, in implementing the 52 recommendations from the lessons learned from the TMI accident. To develop the probabilistic risk assessment methodology most relevant to Japanese situations, a five-year programme plan has been adopted and is to be conducted by the Japan Atomic Research Institute from fiscal 1980. Various problems have been identified and are to be solved through this programme plan. The current status of developments is described together with activities outside the government programme. (author)

Scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hinrich, Jesper Løve; Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Riis, Nicolai Andre Brogaard

2017-01-01

Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component...... pruning using automatic relevance determination (ARD) and subject specific heteroscedastic spatial noise modeling. For task-based and resting state fMRI, we show that the sparsity constraint gives rise to components similar to those obtained by group independent component analysis. The noise modeling...... shows that noise is reduced in areas typically associated with activation by the experimental design. The psFA model identifies sparse components and the probabilistic setting provides a natural way to handle parameter uncertainties. The variational Bayesian framework easily extends to more complex...

Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara

2017-01-01

In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful...... studies on bankruptcy detection, seldom probabilistic approaches were carried out. In this paper we assume a probabilistic point-of-view by applying Gaussian Processes (GP) in the context of bankruptcy prediction, comparing it against the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and the Logistic Regression (LR......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...

Sensitivity analysis in multi-parameter probabilistic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, J.R.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic methods involving the use of multi-parameter Monte Carlo analysis can be applied to a wide range of engineering systems. The output from the Monte Carlo analysis is a probabilistic estimate of the system consequence, which can vary spatially and temporally. Sensitivity analysis aims to examine how the output consequence is influenced by the input parameter values. Sensitivity analysis provides the necessary information so that the engineering properties of the system can be optimized. This report details a package of sensitivity analysis techniques that together form an integrated methodology for the sensitivity analysis of probabilistic systems. The techniques have known confidence limits and can be applied to a wide range of engineering problems. The sensitivity analysis methodology is illustrated by performing the sensitivity analysis of the MCROC rock microcracking model

Radon prevention in new construction in Finland: A nationwide sample survey in 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arvela, H.; Holmgren, O.; Reisbacka, H.

2012-01-01

The building code for radon prevention and the associated practical guidelines were revised in Finland in 2003-2004. Thereafter, preventive measures have become more common and effective and indoor radon concentrations have been markedly reduced. In this study, the indoor radon concentration was measured in 1500 new low-rise residential houses. The houses were randomly selected and represented 7 % of the houses that received building permission in 2006. The average radon concentration of all the houses measured, which were completed in 2006-2008, was 95 Bq m -3 , the median being 58 Bq m -3 . The average was 33 % lower than in houses completed in 2000-2005. The decrease was 47 % in provinces with the highest indoor radon concentration and 26 % elsewhere in the country. In houses with a slab-on-ground foundation that had both passive radon piping and sealing measures carried out using a strip of bitumen felt in the joint between the foundation wall and floor slab, the radon concentration was on average reduced by 57 % compared with houses with no preventive measures. Preventive measures were taken nationwide in 54 % of detached houses and in provinces with the highest radon concentration in 92 % of houses. (authors)

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hiemer, S.

2014-07-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiemer, S.

2014-01-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Age at diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease influences early development of colorectal cancer in inflammatory bowel disease patients: A nationwide, long-term survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.E. Baars (Judith); E.J. Kuipers (Ernst); M. van Haastert (M.); J.J. Nicolai (Jan); A.C. Poen (Alexander); C.J. van der Woude (Janneke)

2012-01-01

textabstractBackground: Data on clinical characteristics of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)-related colorectal cancer (CRC) are scarce and mainly originate from tertiary referral centres. We studied patient and disease characteristics of IBD-related CRC in a nationwide IBD cohort in

HMM_Model-Checker pour la vérification probabiliste HMM_Model ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ASSIA

probabiliste –Télescope Hubble. Abstract. Probabilistic verification for embedded systems continues to attract more and more followers in the research community. Given a probabilistic model, a formula of temporal logic, describing a property of a system and an exploration algorithm to check whether the property is satisfied ...

Observational longitudinal study of symptom burden and time for recovery from community-acquired pneumonia reported by older adults surveyed nationwide using the CAP Burden of Illness Questionnaire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wyrwich KW

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Kathleen W Wyrwich,1 Holly Yu,2 Reiko Sato,2 John H Powers31Evidera, Inc., Bethesda, MD, USA; 2Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, PA, USA; 3George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Washington, DC, USABackground: Millions of older adults who develop community-acquired pneumonia (CAP each year survive, but there is a large knowledge gap on the burden of CAP and the recovery process in survivors from the patient perspective.Methods: The newly developed CAP Burden of Illness Questionnaire was administered through a Web survey to a nationwide sample of US adults aged ≥50 years who were recently diagnosed with CAP. Survey respondents with unresolved symptoms or other CAP-related health problems completed a second survey 30 days later; a third survey was completed another 30 days later by respondents with unresolved symptoms or problems. Nationally representative results describing the average time to recovery of symptoms and other CAP-related problems were achieved using post-stratification weights.Results: Five hundred participants completed the initial survey. The time to resolution for the CAP symptoms of weakness, shortness of breath, and tiredness exceeded 3 weeks on average. There was an average of 13 days of absenteeism, and 3 weeks (mean =21 days before achieving full work/activity productivity after CAP. For participants with health conditions that worsened from pneumonia, chronic emphysema and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease took the longest to return to baseline (mean =60 and 52.4 days, respectively.Conclusion: The results from this study demonstrate that older adults surviving a CAP episode experience a significant multi-symptom illness with long recovery periods to achieve pre-CAP health and productivity. These findings highlight the need for further research on effective clinician–patient communication, the need for patient-centered outcomes in clinical trials for CAP therapeutics, adequate home care during

Evaluation of Probabilistic Reasoning Evidence from Seventh-Graders

Science.gov (United States)

Erdem, Emrullah; Gürbüz, Ramazan

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate probabilistic reasoning of seventh-grade students (N=167) studying at randomly selected three middle schools that served low and middle socioeconomic areas in a city of Turkey. "Probabilistic Reasoning Test (PRT)" was developed and used as a data collection tool. In analyzing the data,…

When catalysis is useful for probabilistic entanglement transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yuan; Duan Runyao; Ying Mingsheng

2004-01-01

We determine all 2x2 quantum states that can serve as useful catalysts for a given probabilistic entanglement transformation, in the sense that they can increase the maximal transformation probability. When higher-dimensional catalysts are considered, a sufficient and necessary condition is derived under which a certain probabilistic transformation has useful catalysts

Probabilistic Damage Stability Calculations for Ships

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

1996-01-01

The aim of these notes is to provide background material for the present probabilistic damage stability rules fro dry cargo ships.The formulas for the damage statistics are derived and shortcomings as well as possible improvements are discussed. The advantage of the definiton of fictitious...... compartments in the formulation of a computer-based general procedure for probabilistic damaged stability assessment is shown. Some comments are given on the current state of knowledge on the ship survivability in damaged conditions. Finally, problems regarding proper account of water ingress through openings...

Quantum logic networks for probabilistic teleportation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

刘金明; 张永生; 等

2003-01-01

By eans of the primitive operations consisting of single-qubit gates.two-qubit controlled-not gates,Von Neuman measurement and classically controlled operations.,we construct efficient quantum logic networks for implementing probabilistic teleportation of a single qubit,a two-particle entangled state,and an N-particle entanglement.Based on the quantum networks,we show that after the partially entangled states are concentrated into maximal entanglement,the above three kinds of probabilistic teleportation are the same as the standard teleportation using the corresponding maximally entangled states as the quantum channels.

Probabilistic pathway construction.

Science.gov (United States)

Yousofshahi, Mona; Lee, Kyongbum; Hassoun, Soha

2011-07-01

Expression of novel synthesis pathways in host organisms amenable to genetic manipulations has emerged as an attractive metabolic engineering strategy to overproduce natural products, biofuels, biopolymers and other commercially useful metabolites. We present a pathway construction algorithm for identifying viable synthesis pathways compatible with balanced cell growth. Rather than exhaustive exploration, we investigate probabilistic selection of reactions to construct the pathways. Three different selection schemes are investigated for the selection of reactions: high metabolite connectivity, low connectivity and uniformly random. For all case studies, which involved a diverse set of target metabolites, the uniformly random selection scheme resulted in the highest average maximum yield. When compared to an exhaustive search enumerating all possible reaction routes, our probabilistic algorithm returned nearly identical distributions of yields, while requiring far less computing time (minutes vs. years). The pathways identified by our algorithm have previously been confirmed in the literature as viable, high-yield synthesis routes. Prospectively, our algorithm could facilitate the design of novel, non-native synthesis routes by efficiently exploring the diversity of biochemical transformations in nature. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Volume 2. Probabilistic analysis of HTGR application studies. Supporting data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-09-01

Volume II, Probabilistic Analysis of HTGR Application Studies - Supporting Data, gives the detail data, both deterministic and probabilistic, employed in the calculation presented in Volume I. The HTGR plants and the fossil plants considered in the study are listed. GCRA provided the technical experts from which the data were obtained by MAC personnel. The names of the technical experts (interviewee) and the analysts (interviewer) are given for the probabilistic data

On the progress towards probabilistic basis for deterministic codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellyin, F.

1975-01-01

Fundamentals arguments for a probabilistic basis of codes are presented. A class of code formats is outlined in which explicit statistical measures of uncertainty of design variables are incorporated. The format looks very much like present codes (deterministic) except for having probabilistic background. An example is provided whereby the design factors are plotted against the safety index, the probability of failure, and the risk of mortality. The safety level of the present codes is also indicated. A decision regarding the new probabilistically based code parameters thus could be made with full knowledge of implied consequences

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence

CERN Document Server

Kadane, Joseph B

2011-01-01

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence is a Bayesian analysis of the trial and post-trial evidence in the Sacco and Vanzetti case, based on subjectively determined probabilities and assumed relationships among evidential events. It applies the ideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to this case, which is perhaps the ranking cause celebre in all of American legal history. Modern computation methods applied to inference networks are used to show how the inferential force of evidence in a complicated case can be graded. The authors employ probabilistic assess

Death losses due to stillbirth, neonatal death and diseases in cloned cattle derived from somatic cell nuclear transfer and their progeny: a result of nationwide survey in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, Shinya; Nagai, Takashi

2009-06-01

To obtain the data concerning death losses due to stillbirth, neonatal death and diseases in cloned cattle derived from somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) and their progeny produced by Japanese institutions, a nationwide survey was carried out in July-August, 2006. As a result, lifetime data concerning 482 SCNT cattle (97.5% of cattle produced in the country at that time) and 202 progeny of SCNT cattle were accumulated and the death loss of these cattle was analyzed. Although 1/3 of delivered SCNT calves died during the perinatal period due to stillbirth and neonatal death, incidence of death loss due to diseases in SCNT cattle surviving more than 200 days after birth seems to be the same as these in conventionally bred cattle. In contrast, progeny of SCNT cattle showed the same level in death loss as observed in conventionally bred cattle throughout their lifetime. These results suggest that robust health would be expected in SCNT cattle surviving to adulthood and their progeny.

Influence of probabilistic safety analysis on design and operation of PWR plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastl, W.; Hoertner, H.; Kafka, P.

1978-01-01

This paper gives a comprehensive presentation of the connections and influences of probabilistic safety analysis on design and operation of PWR plants. In this context a short historical retrospective view concerning probabilistic reliability analysis is given. In the main part of this paper some examples are presented in detail, showing special outcomes of such probabilistic investigations. Additional paragraphs illustrate some activities and issues in the field of probabilistic safety analysis

Effectiveness of Securities with Fuzzy Probabilistic Return

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krzysztof Piasecki

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The generalized fuzzy present value of a security is defined here as fuzzy valued utility of cash flow. The generalized fuzzy present value cannot depend on the value of future cash flow. There exists such a generalized fuzzy present value which is not a fuzzy present value in the sense given by some authors. If the present value is a fuzzy number and the future value is a random one, then the return rate is given as a probabilistic fuzzy subset on a real line. This kind of return rate is called a fuzzy probabilistic return. The main goal of this paper is to derive the family of effective securities with fuzzy probabilistic return. Achieving this goal requires the study of the basic parameters characterizing fuzzy probabilistic return. Therefore, fuzzy expected value and variance are determined for this case of return. These results are a starting point for constructing a three-dimensional image. The set of effective securities is introduced as the Pareto optimal set determined by the maximization of the expected return rate and minimization of the variance. Finally, the set of effective securities is distinguished as a fuzzy set. These results are obtained without the assumption that the distribution of future values is Gaussian. (original abstract

Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Toft, H.S.

2010-01-01

Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability....... It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal...... reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated....

Application of the probabilistic method at the E.D.F

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gachot, Bernard

1976-01-01

Having first evoked the problems arising from the definition of a so-called 'acceptable risk', the probabilistic study programme on safety carried out at the E.D.F. is described. The different aspects of the probabilistic estimation of a hazard are presented as well as the different steps i.e. collecting the information, carrying out a quantitative and qualitative analysis, which characterize the probabilistic study of safety problems. The problem of data determination is considered on reliability of the equipment, noting as a conclusion, that in spite of the lack of accuracy of the present data, the probabilistic methods already appear as a highly valuable tool favouring an homogenous and coherent approach of nuclear plant safety [fr

Probabilistic modeling of discourse-aware sentence processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubey, Amit; Keller, Frank; Sturt, Patrick

2013-07-01

Probabilistic models of sentence comprehension are increasingly relevant to questions concerning human language processing. However, such models are often limited to syntactic factors. This restriction is unrealistic in light of experimental results suggesting interactions between syntax and other forms of linguistic information in human sentence processing. To address this limitation, this article introduces two sentence processing models that augment a syntactic component with information about discourse co-reference. The novel combination of probabilistic syntactic components with co-reference classifiers permits them to more closely mimic human behavior than existing models. The first model uses a deep model of linguistics, based in part on probabilistic logic, allowing it to make qualitative predictions on experimental data; the second model uses shallow processing to make quantitative predictions on a broad-coverage reading-time corpus. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Nationwide and population-based prescription patterns in bipolar disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to describe prescription patterns and changes in these patterns over the last decade for patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder in mental healthcare, using population-based and nationwide data, and to relate the findings to recommendations from...... international guidelines. METHODS: A population-based, nationwide study was carried out. It included register-based longitudinal data on all patients with a first-ever contact with mental healthcare with a diagnosis of mania/bipolar disorder from the entire Danish population, and all prescription data...

[Methodological design of the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2016].

Science.gov (United States)

Romero-Martínez, Martín; Shamah-Levy, Teresa; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucía; Gómez-Humarán, Ignacio Méndez; Gaona-Pineda, Elsa Berenice; Gómez-Acosta, Luz María; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan Ángel; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

2017-01-01

Describe the design methodology of the halfway health and nutrition national survey (Ensanut-MC) 2016. The Ensanut-MC is a national probabilistic survey whose objective population are the inhabitants of private households in Mexico. The sample size was determined to make inferences on the urban and rural areas in four regions. Describes main design elements: target population, topics of study, sampling procedure, measurement procedure and logistics organization. A final sample of 9 479 completed household interviews, and a sample of 16 591 individual interviews. The response rate for households was 77.9%, and the response rate for individuals was 91.9%. The Ensanut-MC probabilistic design allows valid statistical inferences about interest parameters for Mexico´s public health and nutrition, specifically on overweight, obesity and diabetes mellitus. Updated information also supports the monitoring, updating and formulation of new policies and priority programs.

Probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wall, J B

1980-09-01

A specific program is recommended to utilize more effectively probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation. It is based upon the engineering insights from the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) and some follow-on risk assessment research by USNRC. The Three Mile Island accident is briefly discussed from a risk viewpoint to illustrate a weakness in current practice. The development of a probabilistic safety goal is recommended with some suggestions on underlying principles. Some ongoing work on risk perception and the draft probabilistic safety goal being reviewed on Canada is described. Some suggestions are offered on further risk assessment research. Finally, some recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions are described.

GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

2006-12-01

The development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface(GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within limits of the possibility

Non-probabilistic defect assessment for structures with cracks based on interval model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai, Qiao; Zhou, Changyu; Peng, Jian; Chen, Xiangwei; He, Xiaohua

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Non-probabilistic approach is introduced to defect assessment. • Definition and establishment of IFAC are put forward. • Determination of assessment rectangle is proposed. • Solution of non-probabilistic reliability index is presented. -- Abstract: Traditional defect assessment methods conservatively treat uncertainty of parameters as safety factors, while the probabilistic method is based on the clear understanding of detailed statistical information of parameters. In this paper, the non-probabilistic approach is introduced to the failure assessment diagram (FAD) to propose a non-probabilistic defect assessment method for structures with cracks. This novel defect assessment method contains three critical processes: establishment of the interval failure assessment curve (IFAC), determination of the assessment rectangle, and solution of the non-probabilistic reliability degree. Based on the interval theory, uncertain parameters such as crack sizes, material properties and loads are considered as interval variables. As a result, the failure assessment curve (FAC) will vary in a certain range, which is defined as IFAC. And the assessment point will vary within a rectangle zone which is defined as an assessment rectangle. Based on the interval model, the establishment of IFAC and the determination of the assessment rectangle are presented. Then according to the interval possibility degree method, the non-probabilistic reliability degree of IFAC can be determined. Meanwhile, in order to clearly introduce the non-probabilistic defect assessment method, a numerical example for the assessment of a pipe with crack is given. In addition, the assessment result of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional probabilistic method, which confirms that this non-probabilistic defect assessment can reasonably resolve the practical problem with interval variables

Non-probabilistic defect assessment for structures with cracks based on interval model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dai, Qiao; Zhou, Changyu, E-mail: changyu_zhou@163.com; Peng, Jian; Chen, Xiangwei; He, Xiaohua

2013-09-15

Highlights: • Non-probabilistic approach is introduced to defect assessment. • Definition and establishment of IFAC are put forward. • Determination of assessment rectangle is proposed. • Solution of non-probabilistic reliability index is presented. -- Abstract: Traditional defect assessment methods conservatively treat uncertainty of parameters as safety factors, while the probabilistic method is based on the clear understanding of detailed statistical information of parameters. In this paper, the non-probabilistic approach is introduced to the failure assessment diagram (FAD) to propose a non-probabilistic defect assessment method for structures with cracks. This novel defect assessment method contains three critical processes: establishment of the interval failure assessment curve (IFAC), determination of the assessment rectangle, and solution of the non-probabilistic reliability degree. Based on the interval theory, uncertain parameters such as crack sizes, material properties and loads are considered as interval variables. As a result, the failure assessment curve (FAC) will vary in a certain range, which is defined as IFAC. And the assessment point will vary within a rectangle zone which is defined as an assessment rectangle. Based on the interval model, the establishment of IFAC and the determination of the assessment rectangle are presented. Then according to the interval possibility degree method, the non-probabilistic reliability degree of IFAC can be determined. Meanwhile, in order to clearly introduce the non-probabilistic defect assessment method, a numerical example for the assessment of a pipe with crack is given. In addition, the assessment result of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional probabilistic method, which confirms that this non-probabilistic defect assessment can reasonably resolve the practical problem with interval variables.

New probabilistic interest measures for association rules

OpenAIRE

Hahsler, Michael; Hornik, Kurt

2008-01-01

Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. Many different measures of interestingness have been proposed for association rules. However, these measures fail to take the probabilistic properties of the mined data into account. In this paper, we start with presenting a simple probabilistic framework for transaction data which can be used to simulate transaction data when no associations are present. We use such data and a rea...

Invariant and semi-invariant probabilistic normed spaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ghaemi, M.B. [School of Mathematics Iran, University of Science and Technology, Narmak, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: mghaemi@iust.ac.ir; Lafuerza-Guillen, B. [Departamento de Estadistica y Matematica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, Almeria E-04120 (Spain)], E-mail: blafuerz@ual.es; Saiedinezhad, S. [School of Mathematics Iran, University of Science and Technology, Narmak, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: ssaiedinezhad@yahoo.com

2009-10-15

Probabilistic metric spaces were introduced by Karl Menger. Alsina, Schweizer and Sklar gave a general definition of probabilistic normed space based on the definition of Menger . We introduce the concept of semi-invariance among the PN spaces. In this paper we will find a sufficient condition for some PN spaces to be semi-invariant. We will show that PN spaces are normal spaces. Urysohn's lemma, and Tietze extension theorem for them are proved.

A linear process-algebraic format for probabilistic systems with data (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Timmer, Mark

2010-01-01

This paper presents a novel linear process-algebraic format for probabilistic automata. The key ingredient is a symbolic transformation of probabilistic process algebra terms that incorporate data into this linear format while preserving strong probabilistic bisimulation. This generalises similar

Error Immune Logic for Low-Power Probabilistic Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Marr

2010-01-01

design for the maximum amount of energy savings per a given error rate. Spice simulation results using a commercially available and well-tested 0.25 μm technology are given verifying the ultra-low power, probabilistic full-adder designs. Further, close to 6X energy savings is achieved for a probabilistic full-adder over the deterministic case.

The Role of Language in Building Probabilistic Thinking

Science.gov (United States)

Nacarato, Adair Mendes; Grando, Regina Célia

2014-01-01

This paper is based on research that investigated the development of probabilistic language and thinking by students 10-12 years old. The focus was on the adequate use of probabilistic terms in social practice. A series of tasks was developed for the investigation and completed by the students working in groups. The discussions were video recorded…

PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

Efficient probabilistic model checking on general purpose graphic processors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosnacki, D.; Edelkamp, S.; Sulewski, D.; Pasareanu, C.S.

2009-01-01

We present algorithms for parallel probabilistic model checking on general purpose graphic processing units (GPGPUs). For this purpose we exploit the fact that some of the basic algorithms for probabilistic model checking rely on matrix vector multiplication. Since this kind of linear algebraic

A Probabilistic Framework for Security Scenarios with Dependent Actions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kordy, Barbara; Pouly, Marc; Schweizer, Patrick; Albert, Elvira; Sekereinsk, Emil

2014-01-01

This work addresses the growing need of performing meaningful probabilistic analysis of security. We propose a framework that integrates the graphical security modeling technique of attack–defense trees with probabilistic information expressed in terms of Bayesian networks. This allows us to perform

Transitive probabilistic CLIR models.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraaij, W.; de Jong, Franciska M.G.

2004-01-01

Transitive translation could be a useful technique to enlarge the number of supported language pairs for a cross-language information retrieval (CLIR) system in a cost-effective manner. The paper describes several setups for transitive translation based on probabilistic translation models. The

Non-unitary probabilistic quantum computing

Science.gov (United States)

Gingrich, Robert M.; Williams, Colin P.

2004-01-01

We present a method for designing quantum circuits that perform non-unitary quantum computations on n-qubit states probabilistically, and give analytic expressions for the success probability and fidelity.

Probabilistic seismic hazards: Guidelines and constraints in evaluating results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadigh, R.K.; Power, M.S.

1989-01-01

In conducting probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, consideration of the dispersion as well as the upper bounds on ground motion is of great significance. In particular, the truncation of ground motion levels at some upper limit would have a major influence on the computed hazard at the low-to-very-low probability levels. Additionally, other deterministic guidelines and constraints should be considered in evaluating the probabilistic seismic hazard results. In contrast to probabilistic seismic hazard evaluations, mean plus one standard deviation ground motions are typically used for deterministic estimates of ground motions from maximum events that may affect a structure. To be consistent with standard deterministic maximum estimates of ground motions values should be the highest level considered for the site. These maximum values should be associated with the largest possible event occurring at the site. Furthermore, the relationships between the ground motion level and probability of exceedance should reflect a transition from purely probabilistic assessments of ground motion at high probability levels where there are multiple chances for events to a deterministic upper bound ground motion at very low probability levels where there is very limited opportunity for maximum events to occur. In Interplate Regions, where the seismic sources may be characterized by a high-to-very-high rate of activity, the deterministic bounds will be approached or exceeded by the computer probabilistic hazard values at annual probability of exceedance levels typically as high as 10 -2 to 10 -3 . Thus, at these or lower values probability levels, probabilistically computed hazard values could be readily interpreted in the light of the deterministic constraints

Extended probabilistic system assessment calculations within the SKI project-90

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pereira, A.

1993-03-01

The probabilistic system assessment calculation reported in the SKI Project-90 final documents were restricted to the following nuclides: 14 C, 129 I, 135 Cs, 237 Np and 240 Pu. In this report we have extended those calculations to another five nuclides: 79 Se, 243 Am, 240 Pu, 93 Zr and 99 Tc. The execution of probabilistic assessment calculations integrated in the context of SKIs first safety analysis exercise of an hypothetic final repository for high-level nuclear waste in Sweden, was a learning experience of relevance for the conduction of probabilistic safety assessment in future exercises. Some major conclusions and viewpoints of future need related with probabilistic assessment were withdrawn from this work and are presented in our report

Modeling and control of an unstable system using probabilistic fuzzy inference system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sozhamadevi N.

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A new type Fuzzy Inference System is proposed, a Probabilistic Fuzzy Inference system which model and minimizes the effects of statistical uncertainties. The blend of two different concepts, degree of truth and probability of truth in a unique framework leads to this new concept. This combination is carried out both in Fuzzy sets and Fuzzy rules, which gives rise to Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets and Probabilistic Fuzzy Rules. Introducing these probabilistic elements, a distinctive probabilistic fuzzy inference system is developed and this involves fuzzification, inference and output processing. This integrated approach accounts for all of the uncertainty like rule uncertainties and measurement uncertainties present in the systems and has led to the design which performs optimally after training. In this paper a Probabilistic Fuzzy Inference System is applied for modeling and control of a highly nonlinear, unstable system and also proved its effectiveness.

On revision of partially specified convex probabilistic belief bases

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rens, G

2016-08-01

Full Text Available We propose a method for an agent to revise its incomplete probabilistic beliefs when a new piece of propositional information is observed. In this work, an agent’s beliefs are represented by a set of probabilistic formulae – a belief base...

Semantics of probabilistic processes an operational approach

CERN Document Server

Deng, Yuxin

2015-01-01

This book discusses the semantic foundations of concurrent systems with nondeterministic and probabilistic behaviour. Particular attention is given to clarifying the relationship between testing and simulation semantics and characterising bisimulations from metric, logical, and algorithmic perspectives. Besides presenting recent research outcomes in probabilistic concurrency theory, the book exemplifies the use of many mathematical techniques to solve problems in computer science, which is intended to be accessible to postgraduate students in Computer Science and Mathematics. It can also be us

Pediatric Gastrointestinal Endoscopic Sedation: A 2010 Nationwide Survey in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Po-Hon Chen

2012-06-01

Conclusion: A majority of pediatric EGD in Taiwan was performed under sedation and applied more often to younger children. Endoscopists were more satisfied during EGD when practicing sedation. This survey should help formulate updated practice guidelines and policies regarding endoscopic sedation.

Valid Probabilistic Predictions for Ginseng with Venn Machines Using Electronic Nose

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

You Wang

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In the application of electronic noses (E-noses, probabilistic prediction is a good way to estimate how confident we are about our prediction. In this work, a homemade E-nose system embedded with 16 metal-oxide semi-conductive gas sensors was used to discriminate nine kinds of ginsengs of different species or production places. A flexible machine learning framework, Venn machine (VM was introduced to make probabilistic predictions for each prediction. Three Venn predictors were developed based on three classical probabilistic prediction methods (Platt’s method, Softmax regression and Naive Bayes. Three Venn predictors and three classical probabilistic prediction methods were compared in aspect of classification rate and especially the validity of estimated probability. A best classification rate of 88.57% was achieved with Platt’s method in offline mode, and the classification rate of VM-SVM (Venn machine based on Support Vector Machine was 86.35%, just 2.22% lower. The validity of Venn predictors performed better than that of corresponding classical probabilistic prediction methods. The validity of VM-SVM was superior to the other methods. The results demonstrated that Venn machine is a flexible tool to make precise and valid probabilistic prediction in the application of E-nose, and VM-SVM achieved the best performance for the probabilistic prediction of ginseng samples.

Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....

Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....

CAD Parts-Based Assembly Modeling by Probabilistic Reasoning

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Kai-Ke

2016-04-11

Nowadays, increasing amount of parts and sub-assemblies are publicly available, which can be used directly for product development instead of creating from scratch. In this paper, we propose an interactive design framework for efficient and smart assembly modeling, in order to improve the design efficiency. Our approach is based on a probabilistic reasoning. Given a collection of industrial assemblies, we learn a probabilistic graphical model from the relationships between the parts of assemblies. Then in the modeling stage, this probabilistic model is used to suggest the most likely used parts compatible with the current assembly. Finally, the parts are assembled under certain geometric constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a variety of assembly models produced by our prototype system. © 2015 IEEE.

CAD Parts-Based Assembly Modeling by Probabilistic Reasoning

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Kai-Ke; Hu, Kai-Mo; Yin, Li-Cheng; Yan, Dongming; Wang, Bin

2016-01-01

Nowadays, increasing amount of parts and sub-assemblies are publicly available, which can be used directly for product development instead of creating from scratch. In this paper, we propose an interactive design framework for efficient and smart assembly modeling, in order to improve the design efficiency. Our approach is based on a probabilistic reasoning. Given a collection of industrial assemblies, we learn a probabilistic graphical model from the relationships between the parts of assemblies. Then in the modeling stage, this probabilistic model is used to suggest the most likely used parts compatible with the current assembly. Finally, the parts are assembled under certain geometric constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a variety of assembly models produced by our prototype system. © 2015 IEEE.

Systematic evaluations of probabilistic floor response spectrum generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilhanand, K.; Wing, D.W.; Tseng, W.S.

1985-01-01

The relative merits of the current methods for direct generation of probabilistic floor response spectra (FRS) from the prescribed design response spectra (DRS) are evaluated. The explicit probabilistic methods, which explicitly use the relationship between the power spectral density function (PSDF) and response spectra (RS), i.e., the PSDF-RS relationship, are found to have advantages for practical applications over the implicit methods. To evaluate the accuracy of the explicit methods, the root-mean-square (rms) response and the peak factor contained in the PSDF-RS relationship are systematically evaluated, especially for the narrow-band floor spectral response, by comparing the analytical results with simulation results. Based on the evaluation results, a method is recommended for practical use for the direct generation of probabilistic FRS. (orig.)

End-of-Life Care and Discussions in Japanese Geriatric Health Service Facilities: A Nationwide Survey of Managing Directors' Viewpoints.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanoh, Asako; Kizawa, Yoshiyuki; Tsuneto, Satoru; Yokoya, Shoji

2018-01-01

Geriatric health service facilities (GHSFs) play important roles as intermediate care facilities for elderly individuals temporarily when they need rehabilitation before returning home. However, the number of residents spending their end-of-life (EOL) period in such facilities is increasing. To improve the quality of EOL care, end-of-life discussions (EOLDs) are recommended by some guidelines and studies. This study aimed to clarify the current practice of EOL care and EOLDs in GHSFs in Japan. We conducted a nationwide cross-sectional survey by mailing questionnaires about EOL care and EOLDs to 3437 GHSF managing directors. The questionnaire was developed through a literature review and discussion among the researchers and experts. Descriptive statistics summarized the data. We also analyzed the factors related to GHSFs conducting EOLDs using Fisher exact tests. The response rate was 20.7% (713 of 3437). Among the respondents, 75.2% (536 of 713) of GHSFs provided EOL care and 73.1% (521 of 713) conducted EOLDs. The most common reasons for difficulties in providing EOL care included the lack of EOL education for nurses and care workers, and their fear about caring for dying residents. End-of-life discussions were mostly initiated after the deterioration of a resident's condition and were conducted with families by physicians. Statistically significant factors of GHSFs conducting EOLDs included providing EOL education for nurses and care workers, availability of private room for critically ill residents, emergency on-call doctors, and EOL care. Adequate practical staff education programs for EOL care including EOLDs may be crucial for quality of end-of-life care in aged care facilities.

Osteoarthritis in Spain: A nationwide survey of medical specialists.

Science.gov (United States)

Arriaza, Rafael; Sancho, Carlos; Fernandez-Gutierrez, Benjamin

2017-11-25

To determine the reality of the resources and care needs in Spain for the management of patients with osteoarthritis. An online survey. Description of 190 responses to a structured questionnaire (141 orthopedic surgeons and 49 rheumatologists). Osteoarthritis has yet to receive appropriate medical attention and a patient management model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

Investigation and analysis to the content of natural radionuclides at rate-earth ore and solid waste in China through the first nationwide pollution source survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lou Jianjun; Liu Guifang; Sun Qinghong

2011-01-01

China has launched the First Nationwide Pollution Source Survey (FNPSS) during 2006-2009. Ministry Environmental Protection (MEP) sponsored the campaign of measuring the natural radionuclide contents. And the Ministry Environmental Protection (MEP) organized the measurements of natural radionuclide contents of in the factories and mines associated with rare-earth, niobium/tantalum, zircon, tin, lead/zinc, copper, iron, phosphate, coal, aluminum and vanadium. This paper analyzes mainly the data on the contents of U, 232 Th and 226 Ra in the rare-earth ore and solid waste produced by the rare-earth industry in China, as one of a series of papers on naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) s investigation. It is concluded that the average of the U, 232 Th and 226 Ra for the monazite sand of rare-earth ore is 16911, 49683, and 20072 Bq/kg, respectively. The average of U, 232 Th and 226 Ra in bastnaesite is 42, 701 and 91 Bq/kg, respectively. The average of U, 232 Th and 226 Ra in the ionic type rare-earth ore is 3918.6, 2315 and 1221 Bq/kg, respectively. (authors)

Probabilistic G-Metric space and some fixed point results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. R. Janfada

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this note we introduce the notions of generalized probabilistic metric spaces and generalized Menger probabilistic metric spaces. After making our elementary observations and proving some basic properties of these spaces, we are going to prove some fixed point result in these spaces.

ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH PROBABILISTIC FAILURE MODELING OF DIGITAL SYSTEMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CHU, T.L.; MARTINEZ-GURIDI, G.; LIHNER, J.; OVERLAND, D.

2004-01-01

The current U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing process of instrumentation and control (I and C) systems is based on deterministic requirements, e.g., single failure criteria, and defense in depth and diversity. Probabilistic considerations can be used as supplements to the deterministic process. The National Research Council has recommended development of methods for estimating failure probabilities of digital systems, including commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment, for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). NRC staff has developed informal qualitative and quantitative requirements for PRA modeling of digital systems. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has performed a review of the-state-of-the-art of the methods and tools that can potentially be used to model digital systems. The objectives of this paper are to summarize the review, discuss the issues associated with probabilistic modeling of digital systems, and identify potential areas of research that would enhance the state of the art toward a satisfactory modeling method that could be integrated with a typical probabilistic risk assessment

Contribution of foods consumed away from home to energy intake in Brazilian urban areas: the 2008-9 Nationwide Dietary Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Bezerra, Ilana Nogueira; de Moura Souza, Amanda; Pereira, Rosangela Alves; Sichieri, Rosely

2013-04-14

The objectives of the present study were to estimate the dietary contribution of away-from-home food consumption, to describe the contribution of away-from-home foods to energy intake, and to investigate the association between eating away from home and total energy intake in Brazilian urban areas. In the first Brazilian Nationwide Dietary Survey, conducted in 2008-9, food records were collected from 25 753 individuals aged 10 years or older, living in urban areas of Brazil. Foods were grouped into thirty-three food groups, and the mean energy intake provided by away-from-home food consumption was estimated. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the association between away-from-home food consumption and total energy intake. All analyses considered the sample design effect. Of the total population, 43 % consumed at least one food item away from home. The mean energy intake from foods consumed away from home was 1408 kJ (337 kcal), averaging 18 % of total energy intake. Eating away from home was associated with increased total energy intake, except for men in the highest income level. The highest percentage of away-from-home energy sources was for food with a high content of energy, such as alcoholic beverages (59 %), baked and deep-fried snacks (54 %), pizza (42 %), soft drinks (40 %), sandwiches (40 %), and sweets and desserts (30 %). The consumption of foods away from home was related to a greater energy intake. The characterisation of away-from-home food habits is necessary in order to properly design strategies to promote healthy food consumption in the away-from-home environment.

Relative Gains, Losses, and Reference Points in Probabilistic Choice in Rats

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2015-01-01

Theoretical reference points have been proposed to differentiate probabilistic gains from probabilistic losses in humans, but such a phenomenon in non-human animals has yet to be thoroughly elucidated. Three experiments evaluated the effect of reward magnitude on probabilistic choice in rats, seeking to determine reference point use by examining the effect of previous outcome magnitude(s) on subsequent choice behavior. Rats were trained to choose between an outcome that always delivered reward (low-uncertainty choice) and one that probabilistically delivered reward (high-uncertainty). The probability of high-uncertainty outcome receipt and the magnitudes of low-uncertainty and high-uncertainty outcomes were manipulated within and between experiments. Both the low- and high-uncertainty outcomes involved variable reward magnitudes, so that either a smaller or larger magnitude was probabilistically delivered, as well as reward omission following high-uncertainty choices. In Experiments 1 and 2, the between groups factor was the magnitude of the high-uncertainty-smaller (H-S) and high-uncertainty-larger (H-L) outcome, respectively. The H-S magnitude manipulation differentiated the groups, while the H-L magnitude manipulation did not. Experiment 3 showed that manipulating the probability of differential losses as well as the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice produced systematic effects on choice behavior. The results suggest that the reference point for probabilistic gains and losses was the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice. Current theories of probabilistic choice behavior have difficulty accounting for the present results, so an integrated theoretical framework is proposed. Overall, the present results have implications for understanding individual differences and corresponding underlying mechanisms of probabilistic choice behavior. PMID:25658448

Relative gains, losses, and reference points in probabilistic choice in rats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew T Marshall

Full Text Available Theoretical reference points have been proposed to differentiate probabilistic gains from probabilistic losses in humans, but such a phenomenon in non-human animals has yet to be thoroughly elucidated. Three experiments evaluated the effect of reward magnitude on probabilistic choice in rats, seeking to determine reference point use by examining the effect of previous outcome magnitude(s on subsequent choice behavior. Rats were trained to choose between an outcome that always delivered reward (low-uncertainty choice and one that probabilistically delivered reward (high-uncertainty. The probability of high-uncertainty outcome receipt and the magnitudes of low-uncertainty and high-uncertainty outcomes were manipulated within and between experiments. Both the low- and high-uncertainty outcomes involved variable reward magnitudes, so that either a smaller or larger magnitude was probabilistically delivered, as well as reward omission following high-uncertainty choices. In Experiments 1 and 2, the between groups factor was the magnitude of the high-uncertainty-smaller (H-S and high-uncertainty-larger (H-L outcome, respectively. The H-S magnitude manipulation differentiated the groups, while the H-L magnitude manipulation did not. Experiment 3 showed that manipulating the probability of differential losses as well as the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice produced systematic effects on choice behavior. The results suggest that the reference point for probabilistic gains and losses was the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice. Current theories of probabilistic choice behavior have difficulty accounting for the present results, so an integrated theoretical framework is proposed. Overall, the present results have implications for understanding individual differences and corresponding underlying mechanisms of probabilistic choice behavior.

Japanese round robin analysis for probabilistic fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yagawa, G.; Yoshimura, S.; Handa, N.

1991-01-01

Recently attention is focused on the probabilistic fracture mechanics, a branch of fracture mechanics with probability theory for a rational mean to assess the strength of components and structures. In particular, the probabilistic fracture mechanics is recognized as the powerful means for quantitative investigation of significance of factors and rational evaluation of life on problems involving a number of uncertainties, such as degradation of material strength, accuracy and frequency of inspection. Comparison with reference experiments are generally employed to assure the analytical accuracy. However, accuracy and reliability of analytical methods in the probabilistic fracture mechanics are hardly verified by experiments. Therefore, it is strongly needed to verify the probabilistic fracture mechanics through the round robin analysis. This paper describes results from the round robin analysis of flat plate with semi-elliptic cracks on the surface, conducted by the PFM Working Group of LE Subcommittee of the Japan Welding Society under the contract of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute and participated by Tokyo University, Yokohama National University, the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Corporation, Tokyo Electric Power Co. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Toshiba Corporation, Kawasaki Heavy Industry Co. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industry Co. (author)

Employee stress status during the past decade (1982-1992) based on a nation-wide survey conducted by the Ministry of Labour in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimizu, Y; Makino, S; Takata, T

1997-07-01

In this paper we will report the results of nation-wide surveys on employee health conducted and published by the Ministry of Labour in 1982, 1987, and 1992. The subjects were approximately 20,000 employees in 1982, approximately 15,000 in 1987, and approximately 16,000 in 1992, from throughout Japan. Using the results of the surveys, we will show trends in the status of employee work-related stress, as well as trends in means of relaxation over the past decade. The percentage of employees with work-related stress among all subjects gradually increased as follows: 50.6% in 1982, 55.0% in 1987, and 57.3% in 1992. The percentage of employees with work-related stress increased remarkably from 1982 through 1992 among the following groups: the 50-59 age group in males; employees in the electricity, gas, heat and water-supply industries; those in the real estate industry; administrative and managerial workers; employees of large establishments with more than 5,000 employees; and employees performing shift work involving no night duty. The problem of "human relationships in the workplace" was associated with the increasing stress levels among 50-59-year-old males, 40-49-year-old females, employees of large establishments with more than 5,000 employees, those in the real estate industry, and service workers. In terms of means of relaxing to relieve fatigue and stress, employees tended to engage in active pursuits such as "eating out and shopping" and "driving and traveling" over the past decade. In 1992, on the other hand, 22.0% of males and 5.9% of females selected "smoking" as a means of relaxation. This shows the need for stress management in the workplace in order to prevent health problems related to smoking.

Probabilistic simulation of fermion paths

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhirov, O.V.

1989-01-01

Permutation symmetry of fermion path integral allows (while spin degrees of freedom are ignored) to use in its simulation any probabilistic algorithm, like Metropolis one, heat bath, etc. 6 refs., 2 tabs

Probabilistic approaches for geotechnical site characterization and slope stability analysis

CERN Document Server

Cao, Zijun; Li, Dianqing

2017-01-01

This is the first book to revisit geotechnical site characterization from a probabilistic point of view and provide rational tools to probabilistically characterize geotechnical properties and underground stratigraphy using limited information obtained from a specific site. This book not only provides new probabilistic approaches for geotechnical site characterization and slope stability analysis, but also tackles the difficulties in practical implementation of these approaches. In addition, this book also develops efficient Monte Carlo simulation approaches for slope stability analysis and implements these approaches in a commonly available spreadsheet environment. These approaches and the software package are readily available to geotechnical practitioners and alleviate them from reliability computational algorithms. The readers will find useful information for a non-specialist to determine project-specific statistics of geotechnical properties and to perform probabilistic analysis of slope stability.

Probabilistic Sophistication, Second Order Stochastic Dominance, and Uncertainty Aversion

OpenAIRE

Simone Cerreia-Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci; Luigi Montrucchio

2010-01-01

We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance, and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated.

Probabilistic cellular automata.

Science.gov (United States)

Agapie, Alexandru; Andreica, Anca; Giuclea, Marius

2014-09-01

Cellular automata are binary lattices used for modeling complex dynamical systems. The automaton evolves iteratively from one configuration to another, using some local transition rule based on the number of ones in the neighborhood of each cell. With respect to the number of cells allowed to change per iteration, we speak of either synchronous or asynchronous automata. If randomness is involved to some degree in the transition rule, we speak of probabilistic automata, otherwise they are called deterministic. With either type of cellular automaton we are dealing with, the main theoretical challenge stays the same: starting from an arbitrary initial configuration, predict (with highest accuracy) the end configuration. If the automaton is deterministic, the outcome simplifies to one of two configurations, all zeros or all ones. If the automaton is probabilistic, the whole process is modeled by a finite homogeneous Markov chain, and the outcome is the corresponding stationary distribution. Based on our previous results for the asynchronous case-connecting the probability of a configuration in the stationary distribution to its number of zero-one borders-the article offers both numerical and theoretical insight into the long-term behavior of synchronous cellular automata.

Probabilistic population aging

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent. PMID:28636675

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shinaishin, M.A.

1988-06-01

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shinaishin, M A

1988-06-15

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Process for computing geometric perturbations for probabilistic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Fitch, Simeon H. K. [Charlottesville, VA; Riha, David S [San Antonio, TX; Thacker, Ben H [San Antonio, TX

2012-04-10

A method for computing geometric perturbations for probabilistic analysis. The probabilistic analysis is based on finite element modeling, in which uncertainties in the modeled system are represented by changes in the nominal geometry of the model, referred to as "perturbations". These changes are accomplished using displacement vectors, which are computed for each node of a region of interest and are based on mean-value coordinate calculations.

Probabilistic Graph Layout for Uncertain Network Visualization.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Christoph; Nocaj, Arlind; Goertler, Jochen; Deussen, Oliver; Brandes, Ulrik; Weiskopf, Daniel

2017-01-01

We present a novel uncertain network visualization technique based on node-link diagrams. Nodes expand spatially in our probabilistic graph layout, depending on the underlying probability distributions of edges. The visualization is created by computing a two-dimensional graph embedding that combines samples from the probabilistic graph. A Monte Carlo process is used to decompose a probabilistic graph into its possible instances and to continue with our graph layout technique. Splatting and edge bundling are used to visualize point clouds and network topology. The results provide insights into probability distributions for the entire network-not only for individual nodes and edges. We validate our approach using three data sets that represent a wide range of network types: synthetic data, protein-protein interactions from the STRING database, and travel times extracted from Google Maps. Our approach reveals general limitations of the force-directed layout and allows the user to recognize that some nodes of the graph are at a specific position just by chance.

Environment and Development: A Social Evaluation Survey in Nigeria in 1992.

Science.gov (United States)

Chukwuma, Chrysanthus, Sr.

1994-01-01

Describes the results of a nationwide survey on environmental protection and sustainable development in Nigeria in 1992. The intention of this study was to provide reliable and useful information to those involved in forming policies about environmental protection and sustainable development. A vast majority of the respondents opted for strict…

Applications of probabilistic techniques at NRC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thadani, A.; Rowsome, F.; Speis, T.

1984-01-01

The NRC is currently making extensive use of probabilistic safety assessment in the reactor regulation. Most of these applications have been introduced in the regulatory activities in the past few years. Plant Probabilistic Safety Studies are being utilized as a design tool for applications for standard designs and for assessment of plants located in regions of particularly high population density. There is considerable motivation for licenses to perform plant-specific probabilistic studies for many, if not all, of the existing operating nuclear power plants as a tool for prioritizing the implementation of the many outstanding licensing actions of these plants as well as recommending the elimination of a number of these issues which are judged to be insignificant in terms of their contribution to safety and risk. Risk assessment perspectives are being used in the priorization of generic safety issues, development of technical resolution of unresolved safety issues, assessing safety significance of proposed new regulatory requirements, assessment of safety significance of some of the occurrences at operating facilities and in environmental impact analyses of license applicants as required by the National Environmental Policy Act. (orig.)

GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

2005-12-01

The first stage of development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface (GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The first part has developed and others are developing now in this term. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within the limits of the possibility

The probabilistic approach and the deterministic licensing procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fabian, H.; Feigel, A.; Gremm, O.

1984-01-01

If safety goals are given, the creativity of the engineers is necessary to transform the goals into actual safety measures. That is, safety goals are not sufficient for the derivation of a safety concept; the licensing process asks ''What does a safe plant look like.'' The answer connot be given by a probabilistic procedure, but need definite deterministic statements; the conclusion is, that the licensing process needs a deterministic approach. The probabilistic approach should be used in a complementary role in cases where deterministic criteria are not complete, not detailed enough or not consistent and additional arguments for decision making in connection with the adequacy of a specific measure are necessary. But also in these cases the probabilistic answer has to be transformed into a clear deterministic statement. (orig.)

Probabilistic costing of transmission services

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

1992-01-01

Costing of transmission services of electrical utilities is required for transactions involving the transport of energy over a power network. The calculation of these costs based on Short Run Marginal Costing (SRMC) is preferred over other methods proposed in the literature due to its economic efficiency. In the research work discussed here, the concept of probabilistic costing of use-of-system based on SRMC which emerges as a consequence of the uncertainties in a power system is introduced using two different approaches. The first approach, based on the Monte Carlo method, generates a large number of possible system states by simulating random variables in the system using pseudo random number generators. A second approach to probabilistic use-of-system costing is proposed based on numerical convolution and multi-area representation of the transmission network. (UK)

Volume 1. Probabilistic analysis of HTGR application studies. Technical discussion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

May, J.; Perry, L.

1980-01-01

The HTGR Program encompasses a number of decisions facing both industry and government which are being evaluated under the HTGR application studies being conducted by the GCRA. This report is in support of these application studies, specifically by developing comparative probabilistic energy costs of the alternative HTGR plant types under study at this time and of competitive PWR and coal-fired plants. Management decision analytic methodology was used as the basis for the development of the comparative probabilistic data. This study covers the probabilistic comparison of various HTGR plant types at a commercial development stage with comparative PWR and coal-fired plants. Subsequent studies are needed to address the sequencing of HTGR plants from the lead plant to the commercial plants and to integrate the R and D program into the plant construction sequence. The probabilistic results cover the comparison of the 15-year levelized energy costs for commercial plants, all with 1995 startup dates. For comparison with the HTGR plants, PWR and fossil-fired plants have been included in the probabilistic analysis, both as steam electric plants and as combined steam electric and process heat plants

Nationwide peritoneal dialysis nurse training in Thailand: 3-year experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Thaiyuenwong, Jutiporn; Mahatanan, Nanta; Jiravaranun, Somsong; Boonyakarn, Achara; Rodpai, Somrak; Eiam-Ong, Somchai; Tungsanga, Kriang; Dhanakijcharoen, Prateep; Kanjanabuch, Talerngsak

2011-09-01

Peritoneal dialysis (PD) center is not possible to operate if there is no availability of dedicated PD nurse. Generally, the nurse has to play many roles, including educator coordinator, and sometimes leader. As professionalism, the PD nurses need to have both theoretical and practical skills. With the tremendous leap of PD population after the launch of "PD First" policy in Thailand, the shortage of skillful PD nurse is concerned. Hence, the nationwide PD nurse training course was established with the collaborations of many organizations and institutes. Until now, 3 generations of 225 PD nurses are the productions of the course. This number represents 80 percent of PD nurses distributed throughout the whole nation. The survey operated in the year 2010 demonstrated that the output of the course was acceptable in terms of quality since most of the trained PD nurses had a confidence in taking care of PD patients. The quality of patient care is good as indicated by KPIs.

Comparative study of probabilistic methodologies for small signal stability assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rueda, J.L.; Colome, D.G. [Universidad Nacional de San Juan (IEE-UNSJ), San Juan (Argentina). Inst. de Energia Electrica], Emails: joseluisrt@iee.unsj.edu.ar, colome@iee.unsj.edu.ar

2009-07-01

Traditional deterministic approaches for small signal stability assessment (SSSA) are unable to properly reflect the existing uncertainties in real power systems. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of small signal stability (SSS) is attracting more attention by power system engineers. This paper discusses and compares two probabilistic methodologies for SSSA, which are based on the two point estimation method and the so-called Monte Carlo method, respectively. The comparisons are based on the results obtained for several power systems of different sizes and with different SSS performance. It is demonstrated that although with an analytical approach the amount of computation of probabilistic SSSA can be reduced, the different degrees of approximations that are adopted, lead to deceptive results. Conversely, Monte Carlo based probabilistic SSSA can be carried out with reasonable computational effort while holding satisfactory estimation precision. (author)

Do Health Reforms Impact Cost Consciousness of Health Care Professionals? Results from a Nation-Wide Survey in the Balkans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihajlo Jakovljevic

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Serbia, as the largest market of the Western Balkans, has entered socioeconomic transition with substantial delay compared to most of Eastern Europe. Its health system reform efforts were bold during the past 15 years, but their results were inconsistent in various areas. The two waves of global recession that hit Balkan economies ultimately reflected to the financial situation of healthcare. Serious difficulties in providing accessible medical care to the citizens became a reality. A large part of the unbearable expenses actually belongs to the overt prescription of pharmaceuticals and various laboratory and imaging diagnostic procedures requested by physicians. Therefore, a broad national survey was conducted at all levels of the healthcare system hierarchy to distinguish the ability of cost containment strategies to reshape clinician’s mindsets and decision-making in practice. Aims: Assessment of healthcare professionals’ judgment on economic consequences of prescribed medical interventions and evaluation of responsiveness of healthcare professionals to policy measures targeted at increasing cost-consciousness. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted through a hierarchy of medical facilities across diverse geographical regions before and after policy action, from January 2010 to April 2013. In the middle of the observed period, the National Health Insurance Fund (RFZO adopted severe cost-containment measures. Independently, pharmacoeconomic guidelines targeted at prescribers were disseminated. Administration in large hospitals and community pharmacies was forced to restrict access to high budget-impact medical care. Economic Awareness of Healthcare Professionals Questionnaire–29 (EAHPQ-29, developed in Serbian language, was used in face-to-face interviews. The questionnaire documented clinician’s attitudes on: Clinical

Probabilistic Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Composite Aircraft Components, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Network (PFDAN) toolkit for Abaqus will be developed for probabilistic life management of a laminated composite structure...

Probabilistic Criterion for the Economical Assessment of Nuclear Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juanico, L; Florido, Pablo; Bergallo, Juan

2000-01-01

In this paper a MonteCarlo probabilistic model for the economic evaluation of nuclear power plants is presented.The probabilistic results have shown a wide spread on the economic performance due to the schedule complexity and coupling if tasks.This spread increasing to the discount rate, end hence, it becomes more important for developing countries

Solving stochastic multiobjective vehicle routing problem using probabilistic metaheuristic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gannouni Asmae

2017-01-01

closed form expression. This novel approach is based on combinatorial probability and can be incorporated in a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. (iiProvide probabilistic approaches to elitism and diversification in multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. Finally, The behavior of the resulting Probabilistic Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms (PrMOEAs is empirically investigated on the multi-objective stochastic VRP problem.

Probabilistic modeling of caprock leakage from seismic reflection data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zunino, Andrea; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Bergjofd-Kitterød, Ingjerd

We illustrate a methodology which helps to perform a leakage risk analysis for a CO2 reservoir based on a consistent, probabilistic approach to geophysical and geostatistical inversion. Generally, risk assessments of storage complexes are based on geological models and simulations of CO2 movement...... within the storage complexes. The geological models are built on top of geophysical data such as seismic surveys, geological information and well logs from the reservoir or nearby regions. The risk assessment of CO2 storage requires a careful analysis which accounts for all sources of uncertainty....... However, at present, no well-defined and consistent method for mapping the true uncertainty related to the geophysical data and how that uncertainty affects the overall risk assessment for the potential storage site is available. To properly quantify the uncertainties and to avoid unrealistic...

Learning Probabilistic Inference through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity.

Science.gov (United States)

Pecevski, Dejan; Maass, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Numerous experimental data show that the brain is able to extract information from complex, uncertain, and often ambiguous experiences. Furthermore, it can use such learnt information for decision making through probabilistic inference. Several models have been proposed that aim at explaining how probabilistic inference could be performed by networks of neurons in the brain. We propose here a model that can also explain how such neural network could acquire the necessary information for that from examples. We show that spike-timing-dependent plasticity in combination with intrinsic plasticity generates in ensembles of pyramidal cells with lateral inhibition a fundamental building block for that: probabilistic associations between neurons that represent through their firing current values of random variables. Furthermore, by combining such adaptive network motifs in a recursive manner the resulting network is enabled to extract statistical information from complex input streams, and to build an internal model for the distribution p (*) that generates the examples it receives. This holds even if p (*) contains higher-order moments. The analysis of this learning process is supported by a rigorous theoretical foundation. Furthermore, we show that the network can use the learnt internal model immediately for prediction, decision making, and other types of probabilistic inference.

Probabilistic Model Development

Science.gov (United States)

Adam, James H., Jr.

2010-01-01

Objective: Develop a Probabilistic Model for the Solar Energetic Particle Environment. Develop a tool to provide a reference solar particle radiation environment that: 1) Will not be exceeded at a user-specified confidence level; 2) Will provide reference environments for: a) Peak flux; b) Event-integrated fluence; and c) Mission-integrated fluence. The reference environments will consist of: a) Elemental energy spectra; b) For protons, helium and heavier ions.

A Dutch Nationwide Bariatric Quality Registry: DATO.

Science.gov (United States)

Poelemeijer, Youri Q M; Liem, Ronald S L; Nienhuijs, Simon W

2017-12-22

In the Netherlands, the number of bariatric procedures increased exponentially in the 90s. To ensure and improve the quality of bariatric surgery, the nationwide Dutch Audit for Treatment of Obesity (DATO) was established in 2014. The audit was coordinated by the Dutch Institute for Clinical Auditing (DICA). This article provides a review of the aforementioned process in establishing a nationwide registry in the Netherlands. In collaboration with the DATO's scientific committee and other stakeholders, an annual list of several external quality indicators was formulated. This list consists of volume, process, and outcome indicators. In addition to the annual external indicators, the database permits individual hospitals to analyze their own data. The dashboard provides several standardized reports and detailed quality indicators, which are updated on a weekly base. Since the start, all 18 Dutch bariatric centers participated in the nationwide audit. A total of 21,941 cases were registered between 2015 and 2016. By 2016, the required variables were registered in 94.3% of all cases. A severe complicated course was seen in 2.87%, and mortality in 0.05% in 2016. The first-year follow-up shows a > 20% TWL in 86.1% of the registered cases. The DATO has become rapidly a mature registry. The well-organized structure of the national audit institution DICA and governmental funding were essential. However, most important were the bariatric teams themselves. The authors believe reporting the results from the registry has already contributed to more knowledge and acceptance by other health care providers.

75 FR 52713 - Nationwide Aerial Application of Fire Retardant on National Forest System Lands

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-27

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Nationwide Aerial Application of Fire Retardant on... statement for the continued nationwide aerial application of fire retardant on National Forest System lands... Forest Service is working to restore fire-adapted ecosystems through prescribed fire, other fuel...

Methodological design of the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2016

OpenAIRE

Martín Romero-Martínez; Teresa Shamah-Levy; Lucia Cuevas-Nasu; Ignacio Méndez Gómez-Humarán; Elsa Berenice Gaona-Pineda; Luz María Gómez-Acosta; Juan Ángel Rivera-Dommarco; Mauricio Hernández-Ávila

2017-01-01

Objective. Describe the design methodology of the halfway health and nutrition national survey (Ensanut-MC) 2016. Materials and methods. The Ensanut-MC is a national probabilistic survey whose objective population are the in­habitants of private households in Mexico. The sample size was determined to make inferences on the urban and rural areas in four regions. Describes main design elements: target population, topics of study, sampling procedure, measurement procedure and logistics organizat...

Probabilistic assessment of dry transport with burnup credit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lake, W.H.

2003-01-01

The general concept of probabilistic analysis and its application to the use of burnup credit in spent fuel transport is explored. Discussion of the probabilistic analysis method is presented. The concepts of risk and its perception are introduced, and models are suggested for performing probability and risk estimates. The general probabilistic models are used for evaluating the application of burnup credit for dry spent nuclear fuel transport. Two basic cases are considered. The first addresses the question of the relative likelihood of exceeding an established criticality safety limit with and without burnup credit. The second examines the effect of using burnup credit on the overall risk for dry spent fuel transport. Using reasoned arguments and related failure probability and consequence data analysis is performed to estimate the risks of using burnup credit for dry transport of spent nuclear fuel. (author)

The analysis of probability task completion; Taxonomy of probabilistic thinking-based across gender in elementary school students

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Budayasa, I. Ketut; Juniati, Dwi

2017-08-01

Formulation of mathematical learning goals now is not only oriented on cognitive product, but also leads to cognitive process, which is probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking is needed by students to make a decision. Elementary school students are required to develop probabilistic thinking as foundation to learn probability at higher level. A framework of probabilistic thinking of students had been developed by using SOLO taxonomy, which consists of prestructural probabilistic thinking, unistructural probabilistic thinking, multistructural probabilistic thinking and relational probabilistic thinking. This study aimed to analyze of probability task completion based on taxonomy of probabilistic thinking. The subjects were two students of fifth grade; boy and girl. Subjects were selected by giving test of mathematical ability and then based on high math ability. Subjects were given probability tasks consisting of sample space, probability of an event and probability comparison. The data analysis consisted of categorization, reduction, interpretation and conclusion. Credibility of data used time triangulation. The results was level of boy's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated multistructural probabilistic thinking, while level of girl's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated unistructural probabilistic thinking. The results indicated that level of boy's probabilistic thinking was higher than level of girl's probabilistic thinking. The results could contribute to curriculum developer in developing probability learning goals for elementary school students. Indeed, teachers could teach probability with regarding gender difference.

OCA-P, PWR Vessel Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheverton, R.D.; Ball, D.G.

2001-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: OCA-P is a probabilistic fracture-mechanics code prepared specifically for evaluating the integrity of pressurized-water reactor vessels subjected to overcooling-accident loading conditions. Based on linear-elastic fracture mechanics, it has two- and limited three-dimensional flaw capability, and can treat cladding as a discrete region. Both deterministic and probabilistic analyses can be performed. For deterministic analysis, it is possible to conduct a search for critical values of the fluence and the nil-ductility reference temperature corresponding to incipient initiation of the initial flaw. The probabilistic portion of OCA-P is based on Monte Carlo techniques, and simulated parameters include fluence, flaw depth, fracture toughness, nil-ductility reference temperature, and concentrations of copper, nickel, and phosphorous. Plotting capabilities include the construction of critical-crack-depth diagrams (deterministic analysis) and a variety of histograms (probabilistic analysis). 2 - Method of solution: OAC-P accepts as input the reactor primary- system pressure and the reactor pressure-vessel downcomer coolant temperature, as functions of time in the specified transient. Then, the wall temperatures and stresses are calculated as a function of time and radial position in the wall, and the fracture-mechanics analysis is performed to obtain the stress intensity factors as a function of crack depth and time in the transient. In a deterministic analysis, values of the static crack initiation toughness and the crack arrest toughness are also calculated for all crack depths and times in the transient. A comparison of these values permits an evaluation of flaw behavior. For a probabilistic analysis, OCA-P generates a large number of reactor pressure vessels, each with a different combination of the various values of the parameters involved in the analysis of flaw behavior. For each of these vessels, a deterministic fracture

Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic safety assessment in nuclear power plant management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holloway, N.J.

1989-06-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) techniques have been widely used over the past few years to assist in understanding how engineered systems respond to abnormal conditions, particularly during a severe accident. The use of PSAs in the design and operation of such systems thus contributes to the safety of nuclear power plants. Probabilistic safety assessments can be maintained to provide a continuous up-to-date assessment (Living PSA), supporting the management of plant operations and modifications

Exploiting Tensor Rank-One Decomposition in Probabilistic Inference

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Savický, Petr; Vomlel, Jiří

2007-01-01

Roč. 43, č. 5 (2007), s. 747-764 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0545; GA MŠk 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/04/0393 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504; CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : graphical probabilistic models * probabilistic inference * tensor rank Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 0.552, year: 2007 http://dml.cz/handle/10338.dmlcz/135810

An expanded nationwide view of chronic kidney disease in Aboriginal Australians.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoy, Wendy E; Mott, Susan A; Mc Donald, Stephen P

2016-11-01

We summarize new knowledge that has accrued in recent years on chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Indigenous Australians. CKD refers to all stages of preterminal kidney disease, including end-stage kidney failure (ESKF), whether or not a person receives renal replacement therapy (RRT). Recently recorded rates of ESKF, RRT, non-dialysis CKD hospitalizations and CKD attributed deaths were, respectively, more than sixfold, eightfold, eightfold and threefold those of non-Indigenous Australians, with age adjustment, although all except the RRT rates are still under-enumerated. However, the nationwide average Indigenous incidence rate of RRT appears to have stabilized. The median age of Indigenous people with ESKF was about 30 years less than for non-Indigenous people, and 84% of them received RTT, while only half of non-Indigenous people with ESKF did so. The first-ever (2012) nationwide health survey data showed elevated levels of CKD markers in Indigenous people at the community level. For all CKD parameters, rates among Indigenous people themselves were strikingly correlated with increasing remoteness of residence and socio-economic disadvantage, and there was a female predominance in remote areas. The burden of renal disease in Australian Indigenous people is seriously understated by Global Burden of Disease Mortality methodology, because it employs underlying cause of death only, and because deaths of people on RRT are frequently attributed to non-renal causes. These data give a much expanded view of CKD in Aboriginal people. Methodologic approaches must be remedied for a full appreciation of the burden, costs and outcomes of the disease, to direct appropriate policy development. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Methodological design of the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2016

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martín Romero-Martínez

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Objective. Describe the design methodology of the halfway health and nutrition national survey (Ensanut-MC 2016. Materials and methods. The Ensanut-MC is a national probabilistic survey whose objective population are the in­habitants of private households in Mexico. The sample size was determined to make inferences on the urban and rural areas in four regions. Describes main design elements: target population, topics of study, sampling procedure, measurement procedure and logistics organization. Results. A final sample of 9 479 completed household interviews, and a sample of 16 591 individual interviews. The response rate for households was 77.9%, and the response rate for individuals was 91.9%. Conclusions. The Ensanut-MC probabilistic design allows valid statistical inferences about interest parameters for Mexico´s public health and nutrition, specifically on over­weight, obesity and diabetes mellitus. Updated information also supports the monitoring, updating and formulation of new policies and priority programs.

Pharmacy Customers’ Experiences With Electronic Prescriptions: Cross-Sectional Survey on Nationwide Implementation in Finland

Science.gov (United States)

Timonen, Johanna; Ahonen, Riitta

2018-01-01

Background One of the forerunners in electronic health, Finland has introduced electronic prescriptions (ePrescriptions) nationwide by law. This has led to significant changes for pharmacy customers. Despite the worldwide ambition to develop ePrescription services, there are few reports of nationally adopted systems and particularly on the experiences of pharmacy customers. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate Finnish pharmacy customers’ (1) experiences with purchasing medicines with ePrescriptions; (2) experiences with renewing ePrescriptions and acting on behalf of someone else at the pharmacy; (3) ways in which customers keep up to date with their ePrescriptions; and (4) overall satisfaction with ePrescriptions. Methods Questionnaires were distributed to 2913 pharmacy customers aged ≥18 years purchasing prescription medicines for themselves with an ePrescription in 18 community pharmacies across Finland in autumn 2015. Customers’ experiences were explored with 10 structured questions. The data were stored in SPSS for Windows and subjected to descriptive analysis, chi-square, Fisher exact, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, the Mann-Whitney U, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Results Completed questionnaires were returned by 1288 customers, a response rate of 44.19% (1288/2913). The majority of the respondents did not encounter any problems during pharmacy visits (1161/1278, 90.85%) and were informed about the current status of their ePrescriptions after their medication was dispensed (1013/1276, 79.44%). Over half of the respondents had usually received a patient instruction sheet from their physician (752/1255, 59.92%), and nearly all of them regarded its content as clear (711/724, 98.2%). Half of the respondents had renewed their ePrescriptions through the pharmacy (645/1281, 50.35%), and one-third of them had acted on behalf of someone else with ePrescriptions (432/1280, 33.75%). Problems were rarely encountered in the renewal process (49/628, 7.8%) or when

Probabilistic information on object weight shapes force dynamics in a grip-lift task.

Science.gov (United States)

Trampenau, Leif; Kuhtz-Buschbeck, Johann P; van Eimeren, Thilo

2015-06-01

Advance information, such as object weight, size and texture, modifies predictive scaling of grip forces in a grip-lift task. Here, we examined the influence of probabilistic advance information about object weight. Fifteen healthy volunteers repeatedly grasped and lifted an object equipped with a force transducer between their thumb and index finger. Three clearly distinguishable object weights were used. Prior to each lift, the probabilities for the three object weights were given by a visual cue. We examined the effect of probabilistic pre-cues on grip and lift force dynamics. We expected predictive scaling of grip force parameters to follow predicted values calculated according to probabilistic contingencies of the cues. We observed that probabilistic cues systematically influenced peak grip and load force rates, as an index of predictive motor scaling. However, the effects of probabilistic cues on force rates were nonlinear, and anticipatory adaptations of the motor output generally seemed to overestimate high probabilities and underestimate low probabilities. These findings support the suggestion that anticipatory adaptations and force scaling of the motor system can integrate probabilistic information. However, probabilistic information seems to influence motor programs in a nonlinear fashion.

The Timber Resources of New Jersey. A report on the forest survey made by the U.S. Forest Service

Science.gov (United States)

Henry H. Webster; Carl H. Stoltenberg; Carl H. Stoltenberg

1958-01-01

This is a report on the timber resource of New Jersey. It is based on the findings of a forest survey made in 1955-56 by the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Conservation and Economic Development. The forest survey of New Jersey was part of a nationwide survey being made by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of...

Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Growth in Welded Bridge Details

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Yalamas, Thierry

2013-01-01

In the present paper a probabilistic model for fatigue crack growth in welded steel details in road bridges is presented. The probabilistic model takes the influence of bending stresses in the joints into account. The bending stresses can either be introduced by e.g. misalignment or redistribution...... of stresses in the structure. The fatigue stress ranges are estimated from traffic measurements and a generic bridge model. Based on the probabilistic models for the resistance and load the reliability is estimated for a typical welded steel detail. The results show that large misalignments in the joints can...

Cumulative Dominance and Probabilistic Sophistication

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Sarin, R.H.

2000-01-01

Machina & Schmeidler (Econometrica, 60, 1992) gave preference conditions for probabilistic sophistication, i.e. decision making where uncertainty can be expressed in terms of (subjective) probabilities without commitment to expected utility maximization. This note shows that simpler and more general

Probabilistic safety analysis and interpretation thereof

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steininger, U.; Sacher, H.

1999-01-01

Increasing use of the instrumentation of PSA is being made in Germany for quantitative technical safety assessment, for example with regard to incidents which must be reported and forwarding of information, especially in the case of modification of nuclear plants. The Commission for Nuclear Reactor Safety recommends regular execution of PSA on a cycle period of ten years. According to the PSA guidance instructions, probabilistic analyses serve for assessing the degree of safety of the entire plant, expressed as the expectation value for the frequency of endangering conditions. The authors describe the method, action sequence and evaluation of the probabilistic safety analyses. The limits of probabilistic safety analyses arise in the practical implementation. Normally the guidance instructions for PSA are confined to the safety systems, so that in practice they are at best suitable for operational optimisation only to a limited extent. The present restriction of the analyses has a similar effect on power output operation of the plant. This seriously degrades the utilitarian value of these analyses for the plant operators. In order to further develop PSA as a supervisory and operational optimisation instrument, both authors consider it to be appropriate to bring together the specific know-how of analysts, manufacturers, plant operators and experts. (orig.) [de

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

Science.gov (United States)

Cruse, T. A.

1987-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system structural components (PSAM)

Science.gov (United States)

Cruse, T. A.; Burnside, O. H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Polch, E. Z.; Dias, J. B.

1988-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

[Adaptation of the Medical Office Survey on Patient Safety Culture (MOSPSC) tool].

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestre-Busto, C; Torijano-Casalengua, M L; Olivera-Cañadas, G; Astier-Peña, M P; Maderuelo-Fernández, J A; Rubio-Aguado, E A

2015-01-01

To adapt the Medical Office Survey on Patient Safety Culture (MOSPSC) Excel(®) tool for its use by Primary Care Teams of the Spanish National Public Health System. The process of translation and adaptation of MOSPSC from the Agency for Healthcare and Research in Quality (AHRQ) was performed in five steps: Original version translation, Conceptual equivalence evaluation, Acceptability and viability assessment, Content validity and Questionnaire test and response analysis, and psychometric properties assessment. After confirming MOSPSC as a valid, reliable, consistent and useful tool for assessing patient safety culture in our setting, an Excel(®) worksheet was translated and adapted in the same way. It was decided to develop a tool to analyze the "Spanish survey" and to keep it linked to the "Original version" tool. The "Spanish survey" comparison data are those obtained in a 2011 nationwide Spanish survey, while the "Original version" comparison data are those provided by the AHRQ in 2012. The translated and adapted tool and the analysis of the results from a 2011 nationwide Spanish survey are available on the website of the Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality. It allows the questions which are decisive in the different dimensions to be determined, and it provides a comparison of the results with graphical representation. Translation and adaptation of this tool enables a patient safety culture in Primary Care in Spain to be more effectively applied. Copyright © 2014 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Familial Risks of Kidney Failure in Sweden: A Nationwide Family Study

OpenAIRE

Akrawi, Delshad Saleh; Li, Xinjun; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina; Zöller, Bengt

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The value of family history as a risk factor for kidney failure has not been determined in a nationwide setting. AIM: This nationwide family study aimed to determine familial risks for kidney failure in Sweden. METHODS: The Swedish multi-generation register on 0-78-year-old subjects were linked to the Swedish patient register and the Cause of death register for 1987-2010. Individuals diagnosed with acute kidney failure (n = 10063), chronic kidney failure (n = 18668), or unspecifie...

Probabilistically-Cued Patterns Trump Perfect Cues in Statistical Language Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Lany, Jill; Gómez, Rebecca L

2013-01-01

Probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships between word categories are common in natural languages but difficult to acquire. For example, in English, determiner-noun and auxiliary-verb dependencies both involve co-occurrence relationships, but determiner-noun relationships are more reliably marked by correlated distributional and phonological cues, and appear to be learned more readily. We tested whether experience with co-occurrence relationships that are more reliable promotes learning those that are less reliable using an artificial language paradigm. Prior experience with deterministically-cued contingencies did not promote learning of less reliably-cued structure, nor did prior experience with relationships instantiated in the same vocabulary. In contrast, prior experience with probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships instantiated in different vocabulary did enhance learning. Thus, experience with co-occurrence relationships sharing underlying structure but not vocabulary may be an important factor in learning grammatical patterns. Furthermore, experience with probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships, despite their difficultly for naïve learners, lays an important foundation for learning novel probabilistic structure.

Methodology of the National School-based Health Survey in Malaysia, 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Yusoff, Fadhli; Saari, Riyanti; Naidu, Balkish M; Ahmad, Noor Ani; Omar, Azahadi; Aris, Tahir

2014-09-01

The National School-Based Health Survey 2012 was a nationwide school health survey of students in Standard 4 to Form 5 (10-17 years of age), who were schooling in government schools in Malaysia during the period of data collection. The survey comprised 3 subsurveys: the Global School Health Survey (GSHS), the Mental Health Survey, and the National School-Based Nutrition Survey. The aim of the survey was to provide data on the health status of adolescents in Malaysia toward strengthening the adolescent health program in the country. The design of the survey was created to fulfill the requirements of the 3 subsurveys. A 2-stage stratified sampling method was adopted in the sampling. The methods for data collection were via questionnaire and physical examination. The National School-Based Health Survey 2012 adopted an appropriate methodology for a school-based survey to ensure valid and reliable findings. © 2014 APJPH.

Quantitative probabilistic functional diffusion mapping in newly diagnosed glioblastoma treated with radiochemotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellingson, Benjamin M; Cloughesy, Timothy F; Lai, Albert; Nghiemphu, Phioanh L; Liau, Linda M; Pope, Whitney B

2013-03-01

Functional diffusion mapping (fDM) is a cancer imaging technique that uses voxel-wise changes in apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC) to evaluate response to treatment. Despite promising initial results, uncertainty in image registration remains the largest barrier to widespread clinical application. The current study introduces a probabilistic approach to fDM quantification to overcome some of these limitations. A total of 143 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma who were undergoing standard radiochemotherapy were enrolled in this retrospective study. Traditional and probabilistic fDMs were calculated using ADC maps acquired before and after therapy. Probabilistic fDMs were calculated by applying random, finite translational, and rotational perturbations to both pre-and posttherapy ADC maps, then repeating calculation of fDMs reflecting changes after treatment, resulting in probabilistic fDMs showing the voxel-wise probability of fDM classification. Probabilistic fDMs were then compared with traditional fDMs in their ability to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Probabilistic fDMs applied to patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma treated with radiochemotherapy demonstrated shortened PFS and OS among patients with a large volume of tumor with decreasing ADC evaluated at the posttreatment time with respect to the baseline scans. Alternatively, patients with a large volume of tumor with increasing ADC evaluated at the posttreatment time with respect to baseline scans were more likely to progress later and live longer. Probabilistic fDMs performed better than traditional fDMs at predicting 12-month PFS and 24-month OS with use of receiver-operator characteristic analysis. Univariate log-rank analysis on Kaplan-Meier data also revealed that probabilistic fDMs could better separate patients on the basis of PFS and OS, compared with traditional fDMs. Results suggest that probabilistic fDMs are a more predictive biomarker in

Nationwide tobacco surveys and sales data in Denmark from 1920 to 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clemmensen, Kim K B; Lynge, Elsebeth; Clemmensen, Inge H

2012-01-01

Tobacco smoking is an important cause of premature death and morbidity in Denmark. It is therefore important to monitor tobacco consumption. In this paper, tobacco consumption in Denmark is illustrated by two methods: sale of tobacco products and smoking habit surveys.......Tobacco smoking is an important cause of premature death and morbidity in Denmark. It is therefore important to monitor tobacco consumption. In this paper, tobacco consumption in Denmark is illustrated by two methods: sale of tobacco products and smoking habit surveys....

Probabilistic Durability Analysis in Advanced Engineering Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kudzys

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Expedience of probabilistic durability concepts and approaches in advanced engineering design of building materials, structural members and systems is considered. Target margin values of structural safety and serviceability indices are analyzed and their draft values are presented. Analytical methods of the cumulative coefficient of correlation and the limit transient action effect for calculation of reliability indices are given. Analysis can be used for probabilistic durability assessment of carrying and enclosure metal, reinforced concrete, wood, plastic, masonry both homogeneous and sandwich or composite structures and some kinds of equipments. Analysis models can be applied in other engineering fields.

Nationwide survey of extended newborn screening by tandem mass spectrometry in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Dau-Ming; Chien, Yin-Hsiu; Chiang, Chuan-Chi; Ho, Hui-Chen; Hwu, Wuh-Liang; Kao, Shu-Min; Chiang, Szu-Hui; Kao, Chuan-Hong; Liu, Tze-Tze; Chiang, Hung; Hsiao, Kwang-Jen

2010-10-01

In Taiwan, during the period March 2000 to June 2009, 1,495,132 neonates were screened for phenylketonuria (PKU) and homocystinuria (HCU), and 1,321,123 neonates were screened for maple syrup urine disease (MSUD), methylmalonic academia (MMA), medium-chain acyl-coenzyme A (CoA) dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency, isovaleric academia (IVA), and glutaric aciduria type 1 (GA-1) using tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). In a pilot study, 592,717 neonates were screened for citrullinemia, 3-methylcrotonyl-CoA carboxylase deficiency (3-MCC) and other fatty acid oxidation defects in the MS/MS newborn screening. A total of 170 newborns and four mothers were confirmed to have inborn errors of metabolism. The overall incidence was approximately 1/5,882 (1/6,219 without mothers). The most common inborn errors were defects of phenylalanine metabolism [five classic PKU, 20 mild PKU, 40 mild hyperphenylalaninemia (HPA), and 13 6-pyruvoyl-tetrahydropterin synthase (PTPS) deficiency]. MSUD was the second most common amino acidopathy and, significantly, most MSUD patients (10/13) belonged to the Austronesian aboriginal tribes of southern Taiwan. The most frequently detected among organic acid disorders was 3-MCC deficiency (14 newborns and four mothers). GA-1 and MMA were the second most common organic acid disorders (13 and 13 newborns, respectively). In fatty acid disorders, five carnitine transport defect (CTD), five short-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (SCAD), and two medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency were confirmed. This is the largest case of MS/MS newborn screening in an East-Asian population to date. We hereby report the incidences and outcomes of metabolic inborn error diseases found in our nationwide MS/MS newborn screening program.

Site-specific Probabilistic Analysis of DCGLs Using RESRAD Code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jeongju; Yoon, Suk Bon; Sohn, Wook [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

In general, DCGLs can be conservative (screening DCGL) if they do not take into account site specific factors. Use of such conservative DCGLs can lead to additional remediation that would not be required if the effort was made to develop site-specific DCGLs. Therefore, the objective of this work is to provide an example on the use of the RESRAD 6.0 probabilistic (site-specific) dose analysis to compare with the screening DCGL. Site release regulations state that a site will be considered acceptable for unrestricted use if the residual radioactivity that is distinguishable from background radiation results in a Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) to an average member of the critical group of less than the site release criteria, for example 0.25 mSv per year in U.S. Utilities use computer dose modeling codes to establish an acceptable level of contamination, the derived concentration guideline level (DCGL) that will meet this regulatory limit. Since the DCGL value is the principal measure of residual radioactivity, it is critical to understand the technical basis of these dose modeling codes. The objective this work was to provide example on nuclear power plant decommissioning dose analysis in a probabilistic analysis framework. The focus was on the demonstration of regulatory compliance for surface soil contamination using the RESRAD 6.0 code. Both the screening and site-specific probabilistic dose analysis methodologies were examined. Example analyses performed with the screening probabilistic dose analysis confirmed the conservatism of the NRC screening values and indicated the effectiveness of probabilistic dose analysis in reducing the conservatism in DCGL derivation.

Danish obstetricians' personal preference and general attitude to elective cesarean section on maternal request: a nation-wide postal survey

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergholt, Thomas; Østberg, Birgitte; Legarth, Jesper

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess Danish obstetricians' and gynecologists' personal preference and general attitude towards elective cesarean section on maternal request in uncomplicated single cephalic pregnancies at term. DESIGN: Nation-wide anonymous postal questionnaire. POPULATION: Four hundred and fifty......-five obstetricians and gynecologists identified in the records of the Danish Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology from January 2000. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Personal preference on the mode of delivery and general attitude towards elective cesarean section on maternal request in an uncomplicated single cephalic...... and gynecologists would personally prefer vaginal delivery in uncomplicated pregnancies, but nearly 40% agree with the woman's right to request a cesarean section....

The Practice of Electroconvulsive Therapy in US Correctional Facilities: A Nationwide Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Surya, Sandarsh; McCall, W Vaughn; Iltis, Ana S; Rosenquist, Peter B; Hogan, Elizabeth

2015-09-01

There are little data regarding the practice of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in correctional settings in the United States. A survey was conducted to study the current practice of ECT in US prisons. We hypothesize that ECT is underutilized in the correctional setting. We also review the ethical aspects of using ECT for the treatment of mental illness in the prison population. A 12-question survey via a Survey Monkey link was emailed to chiefs of psychiatry, or the equivalent, of each state's department of corrections. We examined the frequency of Likert-type responses, tabulated individual comments for qualitative review, and grouped for comparison. Email contacts for chiefs of psychiatry, or the equivalent, for the department of corrections in 45 states (90%) were obtained and a survey link was sent. Thirty-one (68.9%) of 45 responded to the survey. Respondent estimates of the number of inmates with mental illness in 31 prison systems varied from less than 500 to more than 4500. Of these 31, 12 (38.7%) had more than 4500 inmates with mental illness. Four systems reported the use of ECT within the last 5 years. Of those, one reported use in the last 1 to 6 months, and 3 reported use in the last 2 to 5 years. Of these 4 prison systems, all felt that they had up to 10 patients who would benefit if ECT continued to be offered or became available in the future. None of these systems provided ECT within the prison. The inmates were referred to a local state psychiatric facility, a university hospital, or other institutions. The reasons for not using ECT as reported by the respondents are grouped under subheadings of stigma, ethical concerns, logistical concerns, and others. Considering the high prevalence of mental illness in prisons, one might expect a high prevalence of ECT responsive mental illness and, hence, provision of ECT to some prisoners with mental illness. However, our survey suggests that the use of ECT in prisons in the United States is low. Stigma

Spatial distribution and partitioning behavior of selected poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances in freshwater ecosystems: A French nationwide survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munoz, Gabriel; Giraudel, Jean-Luc [University of Bordeaux, EPOC, UMR 5805, LPTC, 351 Cours de la Libération, F-33400 Talence, France. (France); Botta, Fabrizio; Lestremau, François [INERIS, Parc Technologique Alata, BP2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte, France. (France); Dévier, Marie-Hélène [University of Bordeaux, EPOC, UMR 5805, LPTC, 351 Cours de la Libération, F-33400 Talence, France. (France); Budzinski, Hélène [CNRS, EPOC, UMR 5805, LPTC, 351 Cours de la Libération, F-33400 Talence, France. (France); Labadie, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.labadie@u-bordeaux.fr [CNRS, EPOC, UMR 5805, LPTC, 351 Cours de la Libération, F-33400 Talence, France. (France)

2015-06-01

The spatial distribution and partitioning of 22 poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in 133 selected rivers and lakes were investigated at a nationwide scale in mainland France. ΣPFASs was in the range < LOD–725 ng L{sup −1} in the dissolved phase (median: 7.9 ng L{sup −1}) and < LOD–25 ng g{sup −1} dry weight (dw) in the sediment (median: 0.48 ng g{sup −1} dw); dissolved PFAS levels were significantly lower at “reference” sites than at urban, rural or industrial sites. Although perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was found to be the prevalent compound on average, a multivariate analysis based on neural networks revealed noteworthy trends for other compounds at specific locations and, in some cases, at watershed scale. For instance, several sites along the Rhône River displayed a peculiar PFAS signature, perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) often dominating the PFAS profile (e.g., PFCAs > 99% of ΣPFASs in the sediment, likely as a consequence of industrial point source discharge). Several treatments for data below detection limits (non-detects) were used to compute descriptive statistics, differences among groups, and correlations between congeners, as well as log K{sub d} and log K{sub oc} partition coefficients; in that respect, the Regression on Order Statistics (robust ROS) method was preferred for descriptive statistics computation while the Akritas–Theil–Sen estimator was used for regression and correlation analyses. Multiple regression results suggest that PFAS levels in the dissolved phase and sediment characteristics (organic carbon fraction and grain size) may be significant controlling factors of PFAS levels in the sediment. - Highlights: • A large-scale survey of PFASs in 133 French rivers and lakes is reported. • Descriptive statistics, correlations and partitioning coefficients were determined. • Non-detects were taken into account using functions from the NADA R-package. • Hot spots of PFAS contamination were found

Probabilistic Counterfactuals: Semantics, Computation, and Applications

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Balke, Alexander

1997-01-01

... handled within the framework of standard probability theory. Starting with functional description of physical mechanisms, we were able to derive the standard probabilistic properties of Bayesian networks and to show: (1...

Probabilistic Harmonic Analysis on Distributed Photovoltaic Integration Considering Typical Weather Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bin, Che; Ruoying, Yu; Dongsheng, Dang; Xiangyan, Wang

2017-05-01

Distributed Generation (DG) integrating to the network would cause the harmonic pollution which would cause damages on electrical devices and affect the normal operation of power system. On the other hand, due to the randomness of the wind and solar irradiation, the output of DG is random, too, which leads to an uncertainty of the harmonic generated by the DG. Thus, probabilistic methods are needed to analyse the impacts of the DG integration. In this work we studied the harmonic voltage probabilistic distribution and the harmonic distortion in distributed network after the distributed photovoltaic (DPV) system integrating in different weather conditions, mainly the sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day and the snowy day. The probabilistic distribution function of the DPV output power in different typical weather conditions could be acquired via the parameter identification method of maximum likelihood estimation. The Monte-Carlo simulation method was adopted to calculate the probabilistic distribution of harmonic voltage content at different frequency orders as well as the harmonic distortion (THD) in typical weather conditions. The case study was based on the IEEE33 system and the results of harmonic voltage content probabilistic distribution as well as THD in typical weather conditions were compared.

HCUP Nationwide Emergency Department Database (NEDS) Restricted Access File

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) was created to enable analyses of emergency department (ED) utilization patterns and support public health...

Automatic Probabilistic Program Verification through Random Variable Abstraction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damián Barsotti

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The weakest pre-expectation calculus has been proved to be a mature theory to analyze quantitative properties of probabilistic and nondeterministic programs. We present an automatic method for proving quantitative linear properties on any denumerable state space using iterative backwards fixed point calculation in the general framework of abstract interpretation. In order to accomplish this task we present the technique of random variable abstraction (RVA and we also postulate a sufficient condition to achieve exact fixed point computation in the abstract domain. The feasibility of our approach is shown with two examples, one obtaining the expected running time of a probabilistic program, and the other the expected gain of a gambling strategy. Our method works on general guarded probabilistic and nondeterministic transition systems instead of plain pGCL programs, allowing us to easily model a wide range of systems including distributed ones and unstructured programs. We present the operational and weakest precondition semantics for this programs and prove its equivalence.

Nationwide survey on barriers for dental research in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kundendu Arya Bishen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: Research in the dental field is progressing at mightier speed worldwide, but an unfortunately representation of India at this platform is negligible. The present study was undertaken to unearth the barriers for dental research among dental professionals in Indian scenario. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire study was conducted on 1514 participant′s (Master of Dental Surgery and Bachelor of Dental Surgery staff and postgraduates in 40 dental colleges of India selected by multistage random sampling. The response rate was 75.7%. The survey was undertaken from July 2013 to December 2013. The survey instrument was 24-item, investigator developed, self-structured, close-ended, and self-administered questionnaire grouped into four categories that are, institutional/departmental support related barriers, financial/training support related barriers, time-related barriers, and general barriers. Results: Among all respondents 47.23% informed that they are administrative and educational work rather than research work as (P < 0.001. Overall 57.53% of study participants reported lack of administrative and technical support for research work as (P < 0.001. Overall 64.9% reported meager college funding was the barrier (P < 0.001. Overall 61.5% respondents reported lack of time to do research work due to clinical and teaching responsibilities (P < 0.001 was the barrier for research. Largely 80.25% agreed that, the lack of documentation and record maintenance are an obvious barrier for research (P < 0.001. Conclusions: Present study unearths certain barriers for research in an Indian scenario, which includes administrative overburden, lack of funds, and lack of documentation of the dental data. Governing authorities of dentistry in India have to make major interventions to make research non-intensive environment to research-friendly environment.

National Information Utility Seeks to Serve Schools Nationwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Platzer, Nancy

1985-01-01

Outlines the pros and cons of the National Information Utility Program, which is designed to provide current updatable courseware to schools nationwide. The information is broadcast over FM radio and television signals to facilities subscribing to the utility. (MD)

Probabilistic Approaches to Video Retrieval

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ianeva, Tzvetanka; Boldareva, L.; Westerveld, T.H.W.; Cornacchia, Roberto; Hiemstra, Djoerd; de Vries, A.P.

Our experiments for TRECVID 2004 further investigate the applicability of the so-called “Generative Probabilistic Models to video retrieval��?. TRECVID 2003 results demonstrated that mixture models computed from video shot sequences improve the precision of “query by examples��? results when

Effect of dialyzer membrane materials on survival in chronic hemodialysis patients: Results from the annual survey of the Japanese Nationwide Dialysis Registry

OpenAIRE

Abe, Masanori; Hamano, Takayuki; Wada, Atsushi; Nakai, Shigeru; Masakane, Ikuto

2017-01-01

Background Little information is available regarding which type of dialyzer membrane results in good prognosis in patients on chronic hemodialysis. Therefore, we conducted a cohort study from a nationwide registry of hemodialysis patients in Japan to establish the association between different dialyzer membranes and mortality rates. Methods We followed 142,412 patients on maintenance hemodialysis (female, 39.1%; mean age, 64.8 ? 12.3 years; median dialysis duration, 7 [4?12] years) for a year...

Leadership and characteristics of nonprofit mental health peer-run organizations nationwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostrow, Laysha; Hayes, Stephania L

2015-04-01

Mental health peer-run organizations are nonprofits providing venues for support and advocacy among people diagnosed as having mental disorders. It has been proposed that consumer involvement is essential to their operations. This study reported organizational characteristics of peer-run organizations nationwide and how these organizations differ by degree of consumer control. Data were from the 2012 National Survey of Peer-Run Organizations. The analyses described the characteristics of the organizations (N=380) on five domains of nonprofit research, comparing results for organizations grouped by degree of involvement by consumers in the board of directors. Peer-run organizations provided a range of supports and educational and advocacy activities and varied in their capacity and resources. Some variation was explained by the degree of consumer control. These organizations seemed to be operating consistently with evidence on peer-run models. The reach of peer-run organizations, and the need for in-depth research, continues to grow.

Performance analysis of chi models using discrete-time probabilistic reward graphs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Markovski, J.; Andova, S.; Vink, de E.P.

2008-01-01

We propose the model of discrete-time probabilistic reward graphs (DTPRGs) for performance analysis of systems exhibiting discrete deterministic time delays and probabilistic behavior, via their interpretation as discrete-time Markov reward chains, full-fledged platform for qualitative and

Biological sequence analysis: probabilistic models of proteins and nucleic acids

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Durbin, Richard

1998-01-01

... analysis methods are now based on principles of probabilistic modelling. Examples of such methods include the use of probabilistically derived score matrices to determine the significance of sequence alignments, the use of hidden Markov models as the basis for profile searches to identify distant members of sequence families, and the inference...

Safety-specific benefit of the probabilistic evaluation of older nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoertner, H.; Koeberlein, K.

1991-01-01

The report summarizes the experience of the GRS obtained within the framework of a probabilistic evaluation of older nuclear power plants and the German risk study. The applied methodology and the problems involved are explained first. After a brief summary of probabilistic analyses carried out for German nuclear power plants, reliability analyses for older systems are discussed in detail. The findings from the probabilistic safety analyses and the conclusions drawn are presented. (orig.) [de

Changes from 1992 to 2002 in the pretreatment delay for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of larynx or pharynx: a Danish nationwide survey from DAHANCA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Primdahl, Hanne; Nielsen, Anni Linnet; Larsen, Susanne

2006-01-01

In Denmark, a general impression of prolonged pretreatment delay for patients with head and neck cancer led to a nationwide study of time spans from symptom debut over first health care contact to start of treatment. Charts of consecutive new patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the pharynx a...

Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates incorporating site effects - An example from Indiana, U.S.A

Science.gov (United States)

Hasse, J.S.; Park, C.H.; Nowack, R.L.; Hill, J.R.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published probabilistic earthquake hazard maps for the United States based on current knowledge of past earthquake activity and geological constraints on earthquake potential. These maps for the central and eastern United States assume standard site conditions with Swave velocities of 760 m/s in the top 30 m. For urban and infrastructure planning and long-term budgeting, the public is interested in similar probabilistic seismic hazard maps that take into account near-surface geological materials. We have implemented a probabilistic method for incorporating site effects into the USGS seismic hazard analysis that takes into account the first-order effects of the surface geologic conditions. The thicknesses of sediments, which play a large role in amplification, were derived from a P-wave refraction database with over 13, 000 profiles, and a preliminary geology-based velocity model was constructed from available information on S-wave velocities. An interesting feature of the preliminary hazard maps incorporating site effects is the approximate factor of two increases in the 1-Hz spectral acceleration with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for parts of the greater Indianapolis metropolitan region and surrounding parts of central Indiana. This effect is primarily due to the relatively thick sequence of sediments infilling ancient bedrock topography that has been deposited since the Pleistocene Epoch. As expected, the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional systems of the Wabash and Ohio Rivers produce additional amplification in the southwestern part of Indiana. Ground motions decrease, as would be expected, toward the bedrock units in south-central Indiana, where motions are significantly lower than the values on the USGS maps.

Fast probabilistic file fingerprinting for big data.

Science.gov (United States)

Tretyakov, Konstantin; Laur, Sven; Smant, Geert; Vilo, Jaak; Prins, Pjotr

2013-01-01

Biological data acquisition is raising new challenges, both in data analysis and handling. Not only is it proving hard to analyze the data at the rate it is generated today, but simply reading and transferring data files can be prohibitively slow due to their size. This primarily concerns logistics within and between data centers, but is also important for workstation users in the analysis phase. Common usage patterns, such as comparing and transferring files, are proving computationally expensive and are tying down shared resources. We present an efficient method for calculating file uniqueness for large scientific data files, that takes less computational effort than existing techniques. This method, called Probabilistic Fast File Fingerprinting (PFFF), exploits the variation present in biological data and computes file fingerprints by sampling randomly from the file instead of reading it in full. Consequently, it has a flat performance characteristic, correlated with data variation rather than file size. We demonstrate that probabilistic fingerprinting can be as reliable as existing hashing techniques, with provably negligible risk of collisions. We measure the performance of the algorithm on a number of data storage and access technologies, identifying its strengths as well as limitations. Probabilistic fingerprinting may significantly reduce the use of computational resources when comparing very large files. Utilisation of probabilistic fingerprinting techniques can increase the speed of common file-related workflows, both in the data center and for workbench analysis. The implementation of the algorithm is available as an open-source tool named pfff, as a command-line tool as well as a C library. The tool can be downloaded from http://biit.cs.ut.ee/pfff.

A generative, probabilistic model of local protein structure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boomsma, Wouter; Mardia, Kanti V.; Taylor, Charles C.

2008-01-01

Despite significant progress in recent years, protein structure prediction maintains its status as one of the prime unsolved problems in computational biology. One of the key remaining challenges is an efficient probabilistic exploration of the structural space that correctly reflects the relative...... conformational stabilities. Here, we present a fully probabilistic, continuous model of local protein structure in atomic detail. The generative model makes efficient conformational sampling possible and provides a framework for the rigorous analysis of local sequence-structure correlations in the native state...

Advances in probabilistic databases for uncertain information management

CERN Document Server

Yan, Li

2013-01-01

This book covers a fast-growing topic in great depth and focuses on the technologies and applications of probabilistic data management. It aims to provide a single account of current studies in probabilistic data management. The objective of the book is to provide the state of the art information to researchers, practitioners, and graduate students of information technology of intelligent information processing, and at the same time serving the information technology professional faced with non-traditional applications that make the application of conventional approaches difficult or impossible.

Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

1993-01-01

This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

Guidance for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.-E.; Knochenhauer, M.

2011-05-01

The project 'The Validity of Safety Goals' has been financed jointly by NKS (Nordic Nuclear Safety Research), SSM (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority) and the Swedish and Finnish nuclear utilities. The national financing went through NPSAG, the Nordic PSA Group (Swedish contributions) and SAFIR2010, the Finnish research programme on NPP safety (Finnish contributions). The project has been performed in four phases during 2006-2010. This guidance document aims at describing, on the basis of the work performed throughout the project, issues to consider when defining, applying and interpreting probabilistic safety criteria. Thus, the basic aim of the document is to serve as a checklist and toolbox for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria. The document describes the terminology and concepts involved, the levels of criteria and relations between these, how to define a probabilistic safety criterion, how to apply a probabilistic safety criterion, on what to apply the probabilistic safety criterion, and how to interpret the result of the application. The document specifically deals with what makes up a probabilistic safety criterion, i.e., the risk metric, the frequency criterion, the PSA used for assessing compliance and the application procedure for the criterion. It also discusses the concept of subsidiary criteria, i.e., different levels of safety goals. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by safety authorities as a reference for risk-informed regulation. The outcome can have an impact on the requirements on PSA, e.g., regarding quality, scope, level of detail, and documentation. Finally, the results can be expected to support on-going activities concerning risk-informed applications. (Author)

Guidance for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)); Knochenhauer, M. (Scandpower AB (Sweden))

2011-05-15

The project 'The Validity of Safety Goals' has been financed jointly by NKS (Nordic Nuclear Safety Research), SSM (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority) and the Swedish and Finnish nuclear utilities. The national financing went through NPSAG, the Nordic PSA Group (Swedish contributions) and SAFIR2010, the Finnish research programme on NPP safety (Finnish contributions). The project has been performed in four phases during 2006-2010. This guidance document aims at describing, on the basis of the work performed throughout the project, issues to consider when defining, applying and interpreting probabilistic safety criteria. Thus, the basic aim of the document is to serve as a checklist and toolbox for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria. The document describes the terminology and concepts involved, the levels of criteria and relations between these, how to define a probabilistic safety criterion, how to apply a probabilistic safety criterion, on what to apply the probabilistic safety criterion, and how to interpret the result of the application. The document specifically deals with what makes up a probabilistic safety criterion, i.e., the risk metric, the frequency criterion, the PSA used for assessing compliance and the application procedure for the criterion. It also discusses the concept of subsidiary criteria, i.e., different levels of safety goals. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by safety authorities as a reference for risk-informed regulation. The outcome can have an impact on the requirements on PSA, e.g., regarding quality, scope, level of detail, and documentation. Finally, the results can be expected to support on-going activities concerning risk-informed applications. (Author)

Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F. [ORNL; Poore III, Willis P. [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL

2014-07-30

An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two types of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.

Pharmacy Customers' Experiences With Electronic Prescriptions: Cross-Sectional Survey on Nationwide Implementation in Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Lämsä, Elina; Timonen, Johanna; Ahonen, Riitta

2018-02-23

One of the forerunners in electronic health, Finland has introduced electronic prescriptions (ePrescriptions) nationwide by law. This has led to significant changes for pharmacy customers. Despite the worldwide ambition to develop ePrescription services, there are few reports of nationally adopted systems and particularly on the experiences of pharmacy customers. The aim of this study was to investigate Finnish pharmacy customers' (1) experiences with purchasing medicines with ePrescriptions; (2) experiences with renewing ePrescriptions and acting on behalf of someone else at the pharmacy; (3) ways in which customers keep up to date with their ePrescriptions; and (4) overall satisfaction with ePrescriptions. Questionnaires were distributed to 2913 pharmacy customers aged ≥18 years purchasing prescription medicines for themselves with an ePrescription in 18 community pharmacies across Finland in autumn 2015. Customers' experiences were explored with 10 structured questions. The data were stored in SPSS for Windows and subjected to descriptive analysis, chi-square, Fisher exact, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, the Mann-Whitney U, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Completed questionnaires were returned by 1288 customers, a response rate of 44.19% (1288/2913). The majority of the respondents did not encounter any problems during pharmacy visits (1161/1278, 90.85%) and were informed about the current status of their ePrescriptions after their medication was dispensed (1013/1276, 79.44%). Over half of the respondents had usually received a patient instruction sheet from their physician (752/1255, 59.92%), and nearly all of them regarded its content as clear (711/724, 98.2%). Half of the respondents had renewed their ePrescriptions through the pharmacy (645/1281, 50.35%), and one-third of them had acted on behalf of someone else with ePrescriptions (432/1280, 33.75%). Problems were rarely encountered in the renewal process (49/628, 7.8%) or when acting on behalf of another person (25

Protocol for a nationwide survey of primary health care in China: the China PEACE (Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events) MPP (Million Persons Project) Primary Health Care Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Meng; Zhang, Qiuli; Lu, Jiapeng; Li, Xi; Tian, Na; Wang, Yun; Yip, Winnie; Cheng, Kar Keung; Mensah, George A; Horwitz, Ralph I; Mossialos, Elias; Krumholz, Harlan M; Jiang, Lixin

2017-08-28

China has pioneered advances in primary health care (PHC) and public health for a large and diverse population. To date, the current state of PHC in China has not been subjected to systematic assessments. Understanding variations in primary care services could generate opportunities for improving the structure and function of PHC. This paper describes a nationwide PHC study (PEACE MPP Primary Health Care Survey) conducted across 31 provinces in China. The study leverages an ongoing research project, the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events (PEACE) Million Persons Project (MPP). It employs an observational design with document acquisition and abstraction and in-person interviews. The study will collect data and original documents on the structure and financing of PHC institutions and the adequacy of the essential medicines programme; the education, training and retention of the PHC workforce; the quality of care; and patient satisfaction with care. The study will provide a comprehensive assessment of current PHC services and help determine gaps in access and quality of care. All study instruments and documents will be deposited in the Document Bank as an open-access source for other researchers. The central ethics committee at the China National Centre for Cardiovascular Disease (NCCD) approved the study. Written informed consent has been obtained from all patients. Findings will be disseminated in future peer reviewed papers, and will inform strategies aimed at improving the PHC in China. NCT02953926. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Nationwide survey of resuscitation education in Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Jäntti, H; Silfvast, T; Turpeinen, A; Paakkonen, H; Uusaro, A

2009-09-01

Good-quality cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is highlighted in the International Resuscitation Guidelines, but clinically the quality of CPR is often poor. Education of CPR has a major role in the primary skills imparted to students. Different methods can be used to teach CPR quality. We evaluated the current status of their usage in Finland institutes teaching students of emergency medicine at different levels. The following institutes were included in an anonymous survey: medical schools (teaching future physicians), universities of applied sciences (paramedics), colleges (emergency medical technicians) and emergency services college (fire-fighters). Hours of teaching theory lessons of CPR and hours of small group training were evaluated. In particular, we focussed on the teaching methods for adequate chest compression rate and depth. Twenty-one of 30 institutes responded to the questionnaire. The median for hours of theory lessons of CPR was 8h (range: 2-28 h). The median for hours of small group training was 10 (range: 3-40 h). The methods of teaching adequate chest compression rate were instructors' visual estimation in 28.5% of the institutions, watch in 33.3%, metronome in 9.5% and manikins' graphic in 28.5% of institutions. The methods of teaching adequate chest compression depth were instructors' visual estimation in 33.3%, in manikins light indicators in 23.8% and manikins' graphics in 52.3% of institutions. The hours of theoretic lessons and small group training vary widely among different institutes. In one-third of institutions, the instructor's visual estimation was a sole method used to teach adequate chest compression rate and depth. Different technical methods were surprisingly seldom used.

Making Probabilistic Relational Categories Learnable

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Wookyoung; Hummel, John E.

2015-01-01

Theories of relational concept acquisition (e.g., schema induction) based on structured intersection discovery predict that relational concepts with a probabilistic (i.e., family resemblance) structure ought to be extremely difficult to learn. We report four experiments testing this prediction by investigating conditions hypothesized to facilitate…

Fully probabilistic design: the way for optimizing of concrete structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Laníková

Full Text Available Some standards for the design of concrete structures (e.g. EC2 and the original ČSN 73 1201-86 allow a structure to be designed by several methods. This contribution documents the fact that even if a structure does not comply with the partial reliability factor method, according to EC2, it can satisfy the conditions during the application of the fully probabilistic approach when using the same standard. From an example of the reliability of a prestressed spun concrete pole designed by the partial factor method and fully probabilistic approach according to the Eurocode it is evident that an expert should apply a more precise (though unfortunately more complicated method in the limiting cases. The Monte Carlo method, modified by the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS method, has been used for the calculation of reliability. Ultimate and serviceability limit states were checked for the partial factor method and fully probabilistic design. As a result of fully probabilistic design it is possible to obtain a more efficient design for a structure.

Nationwide Estimates of 30-Day Readmission in Patients With Ischemic Stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Vahidy, Farhaan S; Donnelly, John P; McCullough, Louise D; Tyson, Jon E; Miller, Charles C; Boehme, Amelia K; Savitz, Sean I; Albright, Karen C

2017-05-01

Readmission within 30 days of hospital discharge for ischemic stroke is an important quality of care metric. We aimed to provide nationwide estimates of 30-day readmission in the United States, describe important reasons for readmission, and sought to explore factors associated with 30-day readmission, particularly the association with recanalization therapy. We conducted a weighted analysis of the 2013 Nationwide Readmission Database to represent all US hospitalizations. Adult patients with acute ischemic stroke including those who received intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator and intra-arterial therapy were identified using International Classification of Diseases -Ninth Revision codes. Readmissions were defined as any readmission during the 30-day post-index hospitalization discharge period for the eligible patient population. Proportions and 95% confidence intervals for overall 30-day readmissions and for unplanned and potentially preventable readmissions are reported. Survey design logistic regression models were fit for determining crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence interval for association between recanalization therapy and 30-day readmission. Of the 319 317 patients with acute ischemic stroke, 12.1% (95% confidence interval, 11.9-12.3) were readmitted. Of these, 89.6% were unplanned and 12.9% were potentially preventable. More than 20% of all readmissions were attributable to acute cerebrovascular disease. Readmitted patients were older and had a higher comorbidity burden. After controlling for age, sex, insurance status, and comorbidities, patients who underwent recanalization therapy had significantly lower odds of 30-day readmission (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.89). Up to 12% of patients with ischemic stroke get readmitted within 30 days post-discharge period, and recanalization therapy is associated with 11% to 23% lower odds of 30-day readmission. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Compression of Probabilistic XML Documents

Science.gov (United States)

Veldman, Irma; de Keijzer, Ander; van Keulen, Maurice

Database techniques to store, query and manipulate data that contains uncertainty receives increasing research interest. Such UDBMSs can be classified according to their underlying data model: relational, XML, or RDF. We focus on uncertain XML DBMS with as representative example the Probabilistic XML model (PXML) of [10,9]. The size of a PXML document is obviously a factor in performance. There are PXML-specific techniques to reduce the size, such as a push down mechanism, that produces equivalent but more compact PXML documents. It can only be applied, however, where possibilities are dependent. For normal XML documents there also exist several techniques for compressing a document. Since Probabilistic XML is (a special form of) normal XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In this paper, we show that existing compression mechanisms can be combined with PXML-specific compression techniques. We also show that best compression rates are obtained with a combination of PXML-specific technique with a rather simple generic DAG-compression technique.

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

Probabilistic structural analysis using a general purpose finite element program

Science.gov (United States)

Riha, D. S.; Millwater, H. R.; Thacker, B. H.

1992-07-01

This paper presents an accurate and efficient method to predict the probabilistic response for structural response quantities, such as stress, displacement, natural frequencies, and buckling loads, by combining the capabilities of MSC/NASTRAN, including design sensitivity analysis and fast probability integration. Two probabilistic structural analysis examples have been performed and verified by comparison with Monte Carlo simulation of the analytical solution. The first example consists of a cantilevered plate with several point loads. The second example is a probabilistic buckling analysis of a simply supported composite plate under in-plane loading. The coupling of MSC/NASTRAN and fast probability integration is shown to be orders of magnitude more efficient than Monte Carlo simulation with excellent accuracy.

Probabilistic quantum cloning of a subset of linearly dependent states

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Rui, Pinshu; Zhang, Wen; Liao, Yanlin; Zhang, Ziyun

2018-02-01

It is well known that a quantum state, secretly chosen from a certain set, can be probabilistically cloned with positive cloning efficiencies if and only if all the states in the set are linearly independent. In this paper, we focus on probabilistic quantum cloning of a subset of linearly dependent states. We show that a linearly-independent subset of linearly-dependent quantum states {| Ψ 1⟩,| Ψ 2⟩,…,| Ψ n ⟩} can be probabilistically cloned if and only if any state in the subset cannot be expressed as a linear superposition of the other states in the set {| Ψ 1⟩,| Ψ 2⟩,…,| Ψ n ⟩}. The optimal cloning efficiencies are also investigated.

Gender differences in sudden cardiac death in the young-a nationwide study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winkel, Bo Gregers; Risgaard, Bjarke; Bjune, Thea

2017-01-01

Background: Hitherto, sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the young has been described with no distinction between genders. SCD occurs more often in men (SCDm) than women (SCDw), but this disparity is not understood and has not been investigated systematically in a nationwide setting. Our objective......=0.02) and died less often in a public place (16 vs. 26%, p=0.01). Age at death, ratios of autopsies and sudden unexplained deaths, and comorbidities, did not differ. Causes of SCD were largely comparable between genders. The incidence rate of SCDw was half of that of SCDm (1.8 vs. 3.6 per 100...... was to report gender differences in SCD in the young in a nationwide (Denmark) setting. Methods: All deaths in persons aged 1-35 years nationwide in Denmark between 2000 and 2009 were included. Death certificates and autopsy reports were obtained. The extensive health care registries in Denmark were used...

Operational 0-3 h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Recent performance and potential enhancements

Science.gov (United States)

Sokol, Z.; Kitzmiller, D.; Pešice, P.; Guan, S.

2009-05-01

The NOAA National Weather Service has maintained an automated, centralized 0-3 h prediction system for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts since 2001. This advective-statistical system (ADSTAT) produces probabilities that rainfall will exceed multiple threshold values up to 50 mm at some location within a 40-km grid box. Operational characteristics and development methods for the system are described. Although development data were stratified by season and time of day, ADSTAT utilizes only a single set of nation-wide equations that relate predictor variables derived from radar reflectivity, lightning, satellite infrared temperatures, and numerical prediction model output to rainfall occurrence. A verification study documented herein showed that the operational ADSTAT reliably models regional variations in the relative frequency of heavy rain events. This was true even in the western United States, where no regional-scale, gridded hourly precipitation data were available during the development period in the 1990s. An effort was recently launched to improve the quality of ADSTAT forecasts by regionalizing the prediction equations and to adapt the model for application in the Czech Republic. We have experimented with incorporating various levels of regional specificity in the probability equations. The geographic localization study showed that in the warm season, regional climate differences and variations in the diurnal temperature cycle have a marked effect on the predictor-predictand relationships, and thus regionalization would lead to better statistical reliability in the forecasts.

Learning Probabilistic Inference through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity123

Science.gov (United States)

Pecevski, Dejan

2016-01-01

Abstract Numerous experimental data show that the brain is able to extract information from complex, uncertain, and often ambiguous experiences. Furthermore, it can use such learnt information for decision making through probabilistic inference. Several models have been proposed that aim at explaining how probabilistic inference could be performed by networks of neurons in the brain. We propose here a model that can also explain how such neural network could acquire the necessary information for that from examples. We show that spike-timing-dependent plasticity in combination with intrinsic plasticity generates in ensembles of pyramidal cells with lateral inhibition a fundamental building block for that: probabilistic associations between neurons that represent through their firing current values of random variables. Furthermore, by combining such adaptive network motifs in a recursive manner the resulting network is enabled to extract statistical information from complex input streams, and to build an internal model for the distribution p* that generates the examples it receives. This holds even if p* contains higher-order moments. The analysis of this learning process is supported by a rigorous theoretical foundation. Furthermore, we show that the network can use the learnt internal model immediately for prediction, decision making, and other types of probabilistic inference. PMID:27419214

The dialectical thinking about deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qian Yongbai; Tong Jiejuan; Zhang Zuoyi; He Xuhong

2005-01-01

There are two methods in designing and analysing the safety performance of a nuclear power plant, the traditional deterministic method and the probabilistic method. To date, the design of nuclear power plant is based on the deterministic method. It has been proved in practice that the deterministic method is effective on current nuclear power plant. However, the probabilistic method (Probabilistic Safety Assessment - PSA) considers a much wider range of faults, takes an integrated look at the plant as a whole, and uses realistic criteria for the performance of the systems and constructions of the plant. PSA can be seen, in principle, to provide a broader and realistic perspective on safety issues than the deterministic approaches. In this paper, the historical origins and development trend of above two methods are reviewed and summarized in brief. Based on the discussion of two application cases - one is the changes to specific design provisions of the general design criteria (GDC) and the other is the risk-informed categorization of structure, system and component, it can be concluded that the deterministic method and probabilistic method are dialectical and unified, and that they are being merged into each other gradually, and being used in coordination. (authors)

Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD) is a unique and powerful database designed to support various types of analyses of national readmission rates for all...