Associations of Topics of Discussion on Twitter With Survey Measures of Attitudes, Knowledge, and Behaviors Related to Zika: Probabilistic Study in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Winneg, Kenneth; Chan, Man-Pui Sally; Hall Jamieson, Kathleen; Albarracin, Dolores

2018-01-01

Background Recent outbreaks of Zika virus around the world led to increased discussions about this issue on social media platforms such as Twitter. These discussions may provide useful information about attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of the population regarding issues that are important for public policy. Objective We sought to identify the associations of the topics of discussions on Twitter and survey measures of Zika-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors, not solely based upon the volume of such discussions but by analyzing the content of conversations using probabilistic techniques. Methods Using probabilistic topic modeling with US county and week as the unit of analysis, we analyzed the content of Twitter online communications to identify topics related to the reported attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors captured in a national representative survey (N=33,193) of the US adult population over 33 weeks. Results Our analyses revealed topics related to “congress funding for Zika,” “microcephaly,” “Zika-related travel discussions,” “insect repellent,” “blood transfusion technology,” and “Zika in Miami” were associated with our survey measures of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors observed over the period of the study. Conclusions Our results demonstrated that it is possible to uncover topics of discussions from Twitter communications that are associated with the Zika-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of populations over time. Social media data can be used as a complementary source of information alongside traditional data sources to gauge the patterns of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors in a population. PMID:29426815

Comparison of NIS and NHIS/NIPRCS vaccination coverage estimates. National Immunization Survey. National Health Interview Survey/National Immunization Provider Record Check Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett, D L; Ezzati-Rice, T M; Stokley, S; Zhao, Z

2001-05-01

The National Immunization Survey (NIS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) produce national coverage estimates for children aged 19 months to 35 months. The NIS is a cost-effective, random-digit-dialing telephone survey that produces national and state-level vaccination coverage estimates. The National Immunization Provider Record Check Study (NIPRCS) is conducted in conjunction with the annual NHIS, which is a face-to-face household survey. As the NIS is a telephone survey, potential coverage bias exists as the survey excludes children living in nontelephone households. To assess the validity of estimates of vaccine coverage from the NIS, we compared 1995 and 1996 NIS national estimates with results from the NHIS/NIPRCS for the same years. Both the NIS and the NHIS/NIPRCS produce similar results. The NHIS/NIPRCS supports the findings of the NIS.

Probabilistic acute dietary exposure assessments to captan and tolylfluanid using several European food consumption and pesticide concentration databases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boon, Polly E.; Svensson, Kettil; Moussavian, Shahnaz

2009-01-01

to national food consumption surveys. In this way it is possible to exchange or merge concentration data between countries in situations of data scarcity. This electronic platform in connection with probabilistic software can be seen as a prototype of a data warehouse, including a harmonised approach...

National Geodetic Survey's Airport Aerial Photography

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Geodetic Survey (NGS), formerly part of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, has been performing Aeronautical surveys since the 1920's. NGS, in...

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system components (PSAM). Volume 2: Literature surveys of critical Space Shuttle main engine components

Science.gov (United States)

Rajagopal, K. R.

1992-01-01

The technical effort and computer code development is summarized. Several formulations for Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis (PFEA) are described with emphasis on the selected formulation. The strategies being implemented in the first-version computer code to perform linear, elastic PFEA is described. The results of a series of select Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) component surveys are presented. These results identify the critical components and provide the information necessary for probabilistic structural analysis. Volume 2 is a summary of critical SSME components.

Breastfeeding in Mexico was stable, on average, but deteriorated among the poor, whereas complementary feeding improved: results from the 1999 to 2006 National Health and Nutrition Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

González de Cossío, Teresita; Escobar-Zaragoza, Leticia; González-Castell, Dinorah; Reyes-Vázquez, Horacio; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan A

2013-05-01

We present: 1) indicators of infant and young child feeding practices (IYCFP) and median age of introduction of foods analyzed by geographic and socioeconomic variables for the 2006 national probabilistic Health Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT-2006); and 2) changes in IYCFP indicators between the 1999 national probabilistic Nutrition Survey and ENSANUT-2006, analyzed by the same variables. Participants were women 12-49 y and their <2-y-old children (2953 in 2006 and 3191 in 1999). Indicators were estimated with the status quo method. The median age of introduction of foods was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method using recall data. The national median duration of breastfeeding was similar in both surveys, 9.7 mo in 1999 and 10.4 mo in 2006, but decreased in the vulnerable population. In 1999 indigenous women breastfed 20.8 mo but did so for only 13.0 mo in 2006. The national percentage of those exclusively breastfeeding <6 mo also remained stable: 20% in 1999 and 22.3% in 2006. Nevertheless, exclusively breastfeeding <6 mo changed within the indigenous population, from 46% in 1999 to 34.5% in 2006. Between surveys, most breastfeeding indicators had lower values in vulnerable populations than in those better-off. Complementary feeding, however, improved overall. Complementary feeding was inadequately timed: median age of introduction of plain water was 3 mo, formula and non-human milk was 5 mo, and cereals, legumes, and animal foods was 5 mo. Late introduction of animal foods occurred among vulnerable indigenous population when 50% consumed these products at 8 mo. Mexican IYCFP indicate that public policy must protect breastfeeding while promoting the timely introduction of complementary feeding.

Associations of Topics of Discussion on Twitter With Survey Measures of Attitudes, Knowledge, and Behaviors Related to Zika: Probabilistic Study in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Farhadloo, Mohsen; Winneg, Kenneth; Chan, Man-Pui Sally; Hall Jamieson, Kathleen; Albarracin, Dolores

2018-02-09

Recent outbreaks of Zika virus around the world led to increased discussions about this issue on social media platforms such as Twitter. These discussions may provide useful information about attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of the population regarding issues that are important for public policy. We sought to identify the associations of the topics of discussions on Twitter and survey measures of Zika-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors, not solely based upon the volume of such discussions but by analyzing the content of conversations using probabilistic techniques. Using probabilistic topic modeling with US county and week as the unit of analysis, we analyzed the content of Twitter online communications to identify topics related to the reported attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors captured in a national representative survey (N=33,193) of the US adult population over 33 weeks. Our analyses revealed topics related to "congress funding for Zika," "microcephaly," "Zika-related travel discussions," "insect repellent," "blood transfusion technology," and "Zika in Miami" were associated with our survey measures of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors observed over the period of the study. Our results demonstrated that it is possible to uncover topics of discussions from Twitter communications that are associated with the Zika-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of populations over time. Social media data can be used as a complementary source of information alongside traditional data sources to gauge the patterns of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors in a population. ©Mohsen Farhadloo, Kenneth Winneg, Man-Pui Sally Chan, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Dolores Albarracin. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 09.02.2018.

Usual coffee intake in Brazil: results from the National Dietary Survey 2008-9.

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Alessandra Gaspar; da Costa, Teresa Helena Macedo

2015-05-28

Coffee is central to the economy of many developing countries, as well as to the world economy. However, despite the widespread consumption of coffee, there are very few available data showing the usual intake of this beverage. Surveying usual coffee intake is a way of monitoring one aspect of a population's usual dietary intake. Thus, the present study aimed to characterise the usual daily coffee intake in the Brazilian population. We used data from the National Dietary Survey collected in 2008-9 from a probabilistic sample of 34,003 Brazilians aged 10 years and older. The National Cancer Institute method was applied to obtain the usual intake based on two nonconsecutive food diaries, and descriptive statistical analyses were performed by age and sex for Brazil and its regions. The estimated average usual daily coffee intake of the Brazilian population was 163 (SE 2.8) ml. The comparison by sex showed that males had a 12% greater usual coffee intake than females. In addition, the highest intake was recorded among older males. Among the five regions surveyed, the North-East had the highest usual coffee intake (175 ml). The most common method of brewing coffee was filtered/instant coffee (71%), and the main method of sweetening beverages was with sugar (87%). In Brazil, the mean usual coffee intake corresponds to 163 ml, or 1.5 cups/d. Differences in usual coffee intake according to sex and age differed among the five Brazilian regions.

Integrated Campaign Probabilistic Cost, Schedule, Performance, and Value for Program Office Support

Science.gov (United States)

Cornelius, David; Sasamoto, Washito; Daugherty, Kevin; Deacon, Shaun

2012-01-01

This paper describes an integrated assessment tool developed at NASA Langley Research Center that incorporates probabilistic analysis of life cycle cost, schedule, launch performance, on-orbit performance, and value across a series of planned space-based missions, or campaign. Originally designed as an aid in planning the execution of missions to accomplish the National Research Council 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, it utilizes Monte Carlo simulation of a series of space missions for assessment of resource requirements and expected return on investment. Interactions between simulated missions are incorporated, such as competition for launch site manifest, to capture unexpected and non-linear system behaviors. A novel value model is utilized to provide an assessment of the probabilistic return on investment. A demonstration case is discussed to illustrate the tool utility.

Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks

CERN Document Server

Haenni, Rolf; Wheeler, Gregory; Williamson, Jon; Andrews, Jill

2014-01-01

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks presents a groundbreaking framework within which various approaches to probabilistic logic naturally fit. Additionally, the text shows how to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework.

Probabilistic risk assessment for the Sandia National Laboratories Technical Area V Liquid Waste Disposal System surface impoundments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dawson, L.A.; Eidson, A.F.

1996-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment was completed for a former radioactive waste disposal site. The site, two unlined surface impoundment, was designed as part of the Liquid Waste Disposal System (LWDS) to receive radioactive effluent from nuclear reactors in Technical Area-V (TA-V) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). First, a statistical comparison of site sampling results to natural background, using EPA methods, and a spatial distribution analysis were performed. Risk assessment was conducted with SNL/NM's Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System model. The risk assessment indicated that contamination from several constituents might have been high enough to require remediation. However, further analysis based on expected site closure activities and recent EPA guidance indicated that No Further Action was acceptable

National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) is a national survey designed to meet the need for objective, reliable information about the provision and use of...

National natality and fetal mortality surveys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roney, P.L.

1980-01-01

A project is described in which the Epidemiologic Studies Branch, DBE, is cooperating with the National Center for Health Statistics in a National Natality Survey and a National Fetal Mortality Survey of a sample of live births and of late fetal deaths (28 or more weeks gestation) in 1979. Questionnaires will be sent to a sample of mothers who had a live born infant or late fetal death in 1979, to hospitals in which the deliveries took place, to attending physicians, and all other possible sources of health care. The survey will provide quantitative information regarding use of ionizing and nonionizing radiation, including ultrasound, during pregnancy and possible associations between radiation and late fetal mortality. Specifically the study will provide information on the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the mothers and complications of pregnancy, labor, and delivery. The physical condition of the infant at birth is also included. This is one of many health surveys conducted routinely by the NCHS under the National Health Survey program

78 FR 14549 - National Contact Center; Information Collection; National Contact Center Customer Evaluation Survey

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-06

...] National Contact Center; Information Collection; National Contact Center Customer Evaluation Survey AGENCY... National Contact Center customer evaluation surveys. In this request, the previously approved surveys have... several months. These temporary surveys will allow the National Contact Center to compare its customer...

Probabilistic Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Composite Aircraft Components, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Network (PFDAN) toolkit for Abaqus will be developed for probabilistic life management of a laminated composite structure...

What Are Probability Surveys used by the National Aquatic Resource Surveys?

Science.gov (United States)

The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

National Wetland Condition Assessment 2011: A Collaborative Survey of the Nation's Wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

The National Wetland Condition Assessment 2011: A Collaborative Survey presents the results of an unprecedented assessment of the nation’s wetlands. This report is part of the National Aquatic Resource Surveys, a series of statistically based surveys designed to provide the publi...

ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH PROBABILISTIC FAILURE MODELING OF DIGITAL SYSTEMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CHU, T.L.; MARTINEZ-GURIDI, G.; LIHNER, J.; OVERLAND, D.

2004-01-01

The current U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing process of instrumentation and control (I and C) systems is based on deterministic requirements, e.g., single failure criteria, and defense in depth and diversity. Probabilistic considerations can be used as supplements to the deterministic process. The National Research Council has recommended development of methods for estimating failure probabilities of digital systems, including commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment, for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). NRC staff has developed informal qualitative and quantitative requirements for PRA modeling of digital systems. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has performed a review of the-state-of-the-art of the methods and tools that can potentially be used to model digital systems. The objectives of this paper are to summarize the review, discuss the issues associated with probabilistic modeling of digital systems, and identify potential areas of research that would enhance the state of the art toward a satisfactory modeling method that could be integrated with a typical probabilistic risk assessment

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shinaishin, M.A.

1988-06-01

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shinaishin, M A

1988-06-15

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey: 2010 Highlights

Science.gov (United States)

National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey CDC’s National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey (NISVS) is an ongoing, nationally-representative telephone survey that collects detailed ...

Probabilistic risk assessment using event tables and the BNL [Brookhaven National Laboratory] event-tree analyzer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fullwood, R.R.; Shier, W.G.

1989-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is being used to study design alternatives for the advanced neutron source research reactor being designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for operation in the 1990s. Major communication paths between the designers and the safety analysts are accident discussions supported by event tables, event-tree graphics, and accident sequence probabilities. The BETA code used in conjunction with a word processor provides this linkage. This paper describes the process, features of the BETA, how it works, and some examples of usage

Overview of Future of Probabilistic Methods and RMSL Technology and the Probabilistic Methods Education Initiative for the US Army at the SAE G-11 Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

Singhal, Surendra N.

2003-01-01

The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting sponsored by the Picatinny Arsenal during March 1-3, 2004 at Westin Morristown, will report progress on projects for probabilistic assessment of Army system and launch an initiative for probabilistic education. The meeting features several Army and industry Senior executives and Ivy League Professor to provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11s Probabilistic Methods Committee is to enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development.

Comparing Categorical and Probabilistic Fingerprint Evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Garrett, Brandon; Mitchell, Gregory; Scurich, Nicholas

2018-04-23

Fingerprint examiners traditionally express conclusions in categorical terms, opining that impressions do or do not originate from the same source. Recently, probabilistic conclusions have been proposed, with examiners estimating the probability of a match between recovered and known prints. This study presented a nationally representative sample of jury-eligible adults with a hypothetical robbery case in which an examiner opined on the likelihood that a defendant's fingerprints matched latent fingerprints in categorical or probabilistic terms. We studied model language developed by the U.S. Defense Forensic Science Center to summarize results of statistical analysis of the similarity between prints. Participant ratings of the likelihood the defendant left prints at the crime scene and committed the crime were similar when exposed to categorical and strong probabilistic match evidence. Participants reduced these likelihoods when exposed to the weaker probabilistic evidence, but did not otherwise discriminate among the prints assigned different match probabilities. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses (NSSRN) Download makes data from the survey readily available to users in a one-stop download. The Survey has been...

Probabilistic assessment of faults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foden, R.W.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is the process by which the probability (or frequency of occurrence) of reactor fault conditions which could lead to unacceptable consequences is assessed. The basic objective of a PSA is to allow a judgement to be made as to whether or not the principal probabilistic requirement is satisfied. It also gives insights into the reliability of the plant which can be used to identify possible improvements. This is explained in the article. The scope of a PSA and the PSA performed by the National Nuclear Corporation (NNC) for the Heysham II and Torness AGRs and Sizewell-B PWR are discussed. The NNC methods for hazards, common cause failure and operator error are mentioned. (UK)

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey: national youth fitness survey plan, operations, and analysis, 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Borrud, Lori; Chiappa, Michele M; Burt, Vicki L; Gahche, Jaime; Zipf, George; Johnson, Clifford L; Dohrmann, Sylvia M

2014-04-01

In October 2008, the federal government issued its first-ever Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans to provide science-based guidance on the types and amounts of physical activity that provide substantial health benefits for Americans (1). Guidelines for children and adolescents recommend 60 minutes or more of aerobic, muscle-strengthening, or bone-strengthening physical activity daily (1). While the number of children in the United States who meet the recommendations in the Physical Activity Guidelines is unknown, the percentage that is physically active in the United States may be declining. No recent national data exist on the fitness levels of children and adolescents. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey's (NHANES) National Youth Fitness Survey (NNYFS) was conducted in 2012 and collected data on physical activity and fitness levels for U.S. children and adolescents aged 3-15 years. The objective of NNYFS was to provide national-level estimates of the physical activity and fitness levels of children, based on interview and physical examination data. Results from the survey are intended to contribute to the development of policies and programs to improve youth fitness nationally. The data also may be used in the development of national reference standards for measures of fitness and physical activity. Methods The NNYFS survey design used the design for NHANES, which is a multistage probability sample of the civilian noninstitutionalized resident population of the United States. NNYFS consisted of a household interview and a physical activity and fitness examination in a mobile examination center. A total of 1,640 children and adolescents aged 3-15 were interviewed, and 1,576 were examined. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

1993-01-01

This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

Multiobjective optimal allocation problem with probabilistic non ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

The probabilistic non-linear cost constraint is converted into equivalent deterministic .... Further, in a survey the costs for enumerating a character in various strata are not known exactly, rather these are being ...... Naval Research Logistics, Vol.

National Health Interview Survey

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) is the principal source of information on the health of the civilian noninstitutionalized population of the United States...

National health interview surveys in Europe: an overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Hupkens, C L; van den Berg, J; van der Zee, J

1999-05-01

In order to study the value of national health interview surveys for national and international research and policy activities, this paper examines the existence and content of recent and future health interview surveys in the 15 member states of the European Union (EU), Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. National health interview surveys are performed in most countries, but not in Greece (only regional surveys), Luxembourg, Ireland and Iceland (only multi-purpose surveys). The health interview surveys in the other 14 countries provide regular data on the main health topics. Of the 14 health topics that are examined in this inventory seven are measured in all countries. Questions on health status (e.g. self-assessed health, long-term physical disability, and height and weight) and medical consumption (e.g. consultations with the general practitioner, GP) are often included. Lifestyle topics are less often included, except smoking habits, information about which is sought in all countries. Topics like diet and drugs/narcotics are more often included in special surveys than in general health interview surveys. Despite differences in the content, frequency and methodology of national health interview surveys in different countries, these surveys are a valuable source of information on the health of Europeans.

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hana Ševčíková

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

Alcohol Use Disorders in National Samples of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans: The Mexican National Addiction Survey and the U.S. National Alcohol Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Borges, Guilherme; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Lown, Anne; Ye, Yu; Robertson, Marjorie J.; Cherpitel, Cheryl; Greenfield, Tom

2006-01-01

The authors show associations between immigration and alcohol disorders using data from the 1995 and 2000 U.S. National Alcohol Surveys and the 1998 Mexico National Household Survey on Addictions. The prevalence of alcohol dependence was 4.8% for the Mexicans, 4.2% for the Mexico-born immigrants, and 6.6% for the U.S.-born Mexican Americans. They…

Modern Surveying Techniques In National Infrastructural ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Journal of Research in National Development ... Modern Surveying Techniques In National Infrastructural Development: Case Study Of Roads ... Ways that Remote Sensing help to make highway construction easier were discussed.

National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey (NISVS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey (NISVS) is an ongoing, nationally representative survey to assess experiences of intimate partner violence,...

Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2008-10-01

We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.

National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) - National Cardiovascular Disease Surveillance Data

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2001 forward. The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) has monitored the health of the nation since 1957. NHIS data on a broad range of health topics are...

Examining national trends in worker health with the National Health Interview Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Luckhaupt, Sara E; Sestito, John P

2013-12-01

To describe data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), both the annual core survey and periodic occupational health supplements (OHSs), available for examining national trends in worker health. The NHIS is an annual in-person household survey with a cross-sectional multistage clustered sample design to produce nationally representative health data. The 2010 NHIS included an OHS. Prevalence rates of various health conditions and health behaviors among workers based on multiple years of NHIS core data are available. In addition, the 2010 NHIS-OHS data provide prevalence rates of selected health conditions, work organization factors, and occupational exposures among US workers by industry and occupation. The publicly available NHIS data can be used to identify areas of concern for various industries and for benchmarking data from specific worker groups against national averages.

National Aquatic Resource Survey data

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Surface water monitoring data from national aquatic surveys (lakes, streams, rivers). This dataset is associated with the following publication: Stoddard , J., J....

Sexual debut in Mexico: a comparison of household national surveys.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecilia Gayet

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Objective. To estimate calendar of sexual debut in Mexico and its trends using national representative household surveys. Materials and methods. Analysis of five birth cohorts extracted from four national population based household surveys in Mexico (National Health Survey 2000, National Survey on Demographic Dynamics 2009, National Youth Survey 2010, and National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012, using as outcome the proportion of individuals that reported sexual debut before the age of 16 and before the age of 20. Results. Overall, the four analyzed surveys produce consistent results, although some differences were found. While a larger proportion among younger cohorts reported sexual debut before the age of 20, that was not the case for sexual debut before 16 years. Conclusions. While data seems to reflect a relative stable age of sexual debut in Mexico, there is a recent trend to prepone sexual initiation that highlights the need to strengthen comprehensive sexual education and the supply of sexual and reproductive health services that are accessible and friendly to adolescents thus responding to the growing demand from this age group.

NATIONAL EMPLOYER HEALTH INSURANCE SURVEY (NEHIS)

Science.gov (United States)

The National Employer Health Insurance Survey (NEHIS) was developed to produce estimates on employer-sponsored health insurance data in the United States. The NEHIS was the first Federal survey to represent all employers in the United States by State and obtain information on all...

National health interview surveys in Europe: an overview.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hupkens, C.L.H.; Berg, J. van den; Zee, J. van der

1999-01-01

In order to study the value of national health interview surveys for national and international research and policy activities, this paper examines the existence and content of recent and future health interview surveys in the 15 member states of the European Union (EU), Norway, Iceland and

National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS)

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Transportation — The National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVVCS) was a nationwide survey of crashes involving light passenger vehicles, with a focus on the factors related...

National Survey of Family Growth

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) gathers information on family life, marriage and divorce, pregnancy, infertility, use of contraception, and men's and...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2015)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2005)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2006)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2007)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2013)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2014)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), 2002

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2008)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2009)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2012)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2011)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2010)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) primarily measures the prevalence and correlates...

Junior Radiologists' Forum (JRF): National trainee survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilyas, S.; Beatie, A.; Pettet, G.; Kharay, A.; Hedayati, V.; Hameed, S.; McCleery, M.A.; Papadakos, N.; Chari, B.

2014-01-01

Aim: To gather information in order to highlight areas within training that could be improved and share ideas of good practice and, in addition, to compare national results with those of local training schemes. Materials and methods: A request to participate in the survey was emailed to 1158 radiology trainees across 36 UK training schemes in October 2012. The electronic replies were anonymous. The survey remained active for 6 weeks. The data were collated and analysed by members of the JRF. The survey itself was divided into seven sections, covering a diverse range of topics. Results: Six hundred and four trainees from 36 UK training schemes completed the survey, resulting in a response rate of 52%. - Highlights: • First Radiology specific national survey, written by trainees. • Training schemes can benchmark their performance against a national average. • Also can share areas of good practice; and highlight those that need improvement. • Summary of the results, highlighting the most pertinent findings from each section

Appalachian National Scenic Trail pilot survey

Science.gov (United States)

Stan Zarnoch; Michael Bowker; Ken Cordell; Matt Owens; Gary T. Green; Allison Ginn

2011-01-01

Visitation statistics on the Appalachian National Scenic Trail (AT) are important for management and Federal Government reporting purposes. However, no survey methodology has been developed to obtain accurate trailwide estimates over linear trails that traverse many hundreds of back-country miles. This research develops a stratified random survey design which utilizes...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2002)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) measures the prevalence and correlates of drug...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2004)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) measures the prevalence and correlates of drug...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH-2003)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) series (formerly titled National Household Survey on Drug Abuse) measures the prevalence and correlates of drug...

National Adult Tobacco Survey (NATS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2013-2014. The National Adult Tobacco Survey (NATS) was created to assess the prevalence of tobacco use, as well as the factors promoting and impeding tobacco use...

2012 National Immunization Survey Data

Science.gov (United States)

... Tweet Share Compartir This website is archived for historical purposes and is no longer being maintained or ... 12, 2013: Content on this page kept for historical reasons. National Immunization Survey (NIS) – Children (19-35 ...

A probabilistic approach for estimating the spatial extent of pesticide agricultural use sites and potential co-occurrence with listed species for use in ecological risk assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Budreski, Katherine; Winchell, Michael; Padilla, Lauren; Bang, JiSu; Brain, Richard A

2016-04-01

A crop footprint refers to the estimated spatial extent of growing areas for a specific crop, and is commonly used to represent the potential "use site" footprint for a pesticide labeled for use on that crop. A methodology for developing probabilistic crop footprints to estimate the likelihood of pesticide use and the potential co-occurrence of pesticide use and listed species locations was tested at the national scale and compared to alternative methods. The probabilistic aspect of the approach accounts for annual crop rotations and the uncertainty in remotely sensed crop and land cover data sets. The crop footprints used historically are derived exclusively from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Cultivated Crops and/or Pasture/Hay classes. This approach broadly aggregates agriculture into 2 classes, which grossly overestimates the spatial extent of individual crops that are labeled for pesticide use. The approach also does not use all the available crop data, represents a single point in time, and does not account for the uncertainty in land cover data set classifications. The probabilistic crop footprint approach described herein incorporates best available information at the time of analysis from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) for 5 y (2008-2012 at the time of analysis), the 2006 NLCD, the 2007 NASS Census of Agriculture, and 5 y of NASS Quick Stats (2008-2012). The approach accounts for misclassification of crop classes in the CDL by incorporating accuracy assessment information by state, year, and crop. The NLCD provides additional information to improve the CDL crop probability through an adjustment based on the NLCD accuracy assessment data using the principles of Bayes' Theorem. Finally, crop probabilities are scaled at the state level by comparing against NASS surveys (Census of Agriculture and Quick Stats) of reported planted acres by crop. In an example application of the new method, the probabilistic

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-11-01

This report presents the preliminary findings of the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), conducted June 15 through 26, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. The team includes outside experts supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with ANL. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. The on-site phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations carried on at ANL, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis (S ampersand A) Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The S ampersand A Plan will be executed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). When completed, the S ampersand A results will be incorporated into the Argonne National Laboratory Environmental Survey findings for inclusion in the Environmental Survey Summary Report. 75 refs., 24 figs., 60 tabs

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-11-01

This report presents the preliminary findings of the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), conducted June 15 through 26, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. The team includes outside experts supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with ANL. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. The on-site phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations carried on at ANL, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis (S A) Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The S A Plan will be executed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). When completed, the S A results will be incorporated into the Argonne National Laboratory Environmental Survey findings for inclusion in the Environmental Survey Summary Report. 75 refs., 24 figs., 60 tabs.

Survey of probabilistic methods in safety and risk assessment for nuclear power plant licensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-04-01

After an overview about the goals and general methods of probabilistic approaches in nuclear safety the main features of probabilistic safety or risk assessment (PRA) methods are discussed. Mostly in practical applications not a full-fledged PRA is applied but rather various levels of analysis leading from unavailability assessment of systems over the more complex analysis of the probable core damage stages up to the assessment of the overall health effects on the total population from a certain practice. The various types of application are discussed in relation to their limitation and benefits for different stages of design or operation of nuclear power plants. This gives guidance for licensing staff to judge the usefulness of the various methods for their licensing decisions. Examples of the application of probabilistic methods in several countries are given. Two appendices on reliability analysis and on containment and consequence analysis provide some more details on these subjects. (author)

Review of the Diablo Canyon probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bozoki, G.E.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bohn, M.P.; Sabek, M.G.; Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.

1994-08-01

This report details the review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCPRA). The study was performed under contract from the Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Research, USNRC by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The DCPRA is a full scope Level I effort and although the review touched on all aspects of the PRA, the internal events and seismic events received the vast majority of the review effort. The report includes a number of independent systems analyses sensitivity studies, importance analyses as well as conclusions on the adequacy of the DCPRA for use in the Diablo Canyon Long Term Seismic Program

National Beneficiary Survey (NBS) Round 3

Data.gov (United States)

Social Security Administration — A cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of social security beneficiaries age 18-64 receiving disability benefits in active pay status as of...

National Beneficiary Survey (NBS) Round 4

Data.gov (United States)

Social Security Administration — A cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of social security beneficiaries age 18-64 receiving disability benefits in active pay status as of...

Implementation of a national anti-tuberculosis drug resistance survey in Tanzania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mfaume Saidi M

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A drug resistance survey is an essential public health management tool for evaluating and improving the performance of National Tuberculosis control programmes. The current manuscript describes the implementation of the first national drug resistance survey in Tanzania. Methods Description of the implementation process of a national anti-tuberculosis drug resistance survey in Tanzania, in relation to the study protocol and Standard Operating Procedures. Results Factors contributing positively to the implementation of the survey were a continuous commitment of the key stakeholders, the existence of a well organized National Tuberculosis Programme, and a detailed design of cluster-specific arrangements for rapid sputum transportation. Factors contributing negatively to the implementation were a long delay between training and actual survey activities, limited monitoring of activities, and an unclear design of the data capture forms leading to difficulties in form-filling. Conclusion Careful preparation of the survey, timing of planned activities, a strong emphasis on data capture tools and data management, and timely supervision are essential for a proper implementation of a national drug resistance survey.

Implementation of a national anti-tuberculosis drug resistance survey in Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Chonde, Timothy M; Doulla, Basra; van Leth, Frank; Mfinanga, Sayoki G M; Range, Nyagosya; Lwilla, Fred; Mfaume, Saidi M; van Deun, Armand; Zignol, Matteo; Cobelens, Frank G; Egwaga, Saidi M

2008-12-30

A drug resistance survey is an essential public health management tool for evaluating and improving the performance of National Tuberculosis control programmes. The current manuscript describes the implementation of the first national drug resistance survey in Tanzania. Description of the implementation process of a national anti-tuberculosis drug resistance survey in Tanzania, in relation to the study protocol and Standard Operating Procedures. Factors contributing positively to the implementation of the survey were a continuous commitment of the key stakeholders, the existence of a well organized National Tuberculosis Programme, and a detailed design of cluster-specific arrangements for rapid sputum transportation. Factors contributing negatively to the implementation were a long delay between training and actual survey activities, limited monitoring of activities, and an unclear design of the data capture forms leading to difficulties in form-filling. Careful preparation of the survey, timing of planned activities, a strong emphasis on data capture tools and data management, and timely supervision are essential for a proper implementation of a national drug resistance survey.

Modeling of the Sedimentary Interbedded Basalt Stratigraphy for the Idaho National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzette Payne

2006-04-01

This report summarizes how the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy were modeled in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Drill holes indicate the bedrock beneath INL facilities is composed of about 1.1 km of alternating layers of basalt rock and loosely consolidated sediments. Alternating layers of hard rock and “soft” loose sediments tend to attenuate seismic energy greater than uniform rock due to scattering and damping. The INL PSHA incorporated the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy by developing site-specific shear (S) wave velocity profiles. The profiles were used in the PSHA to model the near-surface site response by developing site-specific stochastic attenuation relationships.

Modeling of the Sedimentary Interbedded Basalt Stratigraphy for the Idaho National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzette Payne

2007-08-01

This report summarizes how the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy were modeled in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Drill holes indicate the bedrock beneath INL facilities is composed of about 1.1 km of alternating layers of basalt rock and loosely consolidated sediments. Alternating layers of hard rock and “soft” loose sediments tend to attenuate seismic energy greater than uniform rock due to scattering and damping. The INL PSHA incorporated the effects of the sedimentary interbedded basalt stratigraphy by developing site-specific shear (S) wave velocity profiles. The profiles were used in the PSHA to model the near-surface site response by developing site-specific stochastic attenuation relationships.

National Beneficiary Survey (NBS) Round 2

Data.gov (United States)

Social Security Administration — A cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of 4,864 social security beneficiaries age 18-64 receiving disability benefits in active pay status as...

National Beneficiary Survey (NBS) Round 1

Data.gov (United States)

Social Security Administration — A cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of 6,520 social security beneficiaries age 18-64 receiving disability benefits in active pay status as...

[Key content and formulation of national Chinese materia medica resources survey at county level].

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Jian-Wei; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Li, Hai-Tao; Guo, Lan-Ping; Zhao, Run-Huai; Zhang, Ben-Gang; Sun, Li-Ying; Huang, Lu-Qi

2013-08-01

According to National Census for Water, National Population Census, National Land and Resources Survey, and work experience of experimental measures for national Chinese materia medica resources(CMMR) survey,the national CMMR survey at the county level is the key point of whole survey, that includes organization and management, field survey, sorting data three key links. Organization and management works of national CMMR survey needs to finish four key contents, there are definite goals and tasks, practicable crew, preparation directory, and security assurance. Field survey works of the national CMMR survey needs to finish five key contents, there are preparation works for field survey, the choice of the key survey area (samples), fill in the questionnaire, video data collection, specimen and other physical collection. Sorting data works of the national CMMR survey needs to finish tree key contents, there are data, specimen and census results.

Entropy-based Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Prognosis and Algorithmic Performance Comparison

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this paper, a maximum entropy-based general framework for probabilistic fatigue damage prognosis is investigated. The proposed methodology is based on an...

Entropy-based probabilistic fatigue damage prognosis and algorithmic performance comparison

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this paper, a maximum entropy-based general framework for probabilistic fatigue damage prognosis is investigated. The proposed methodology is based on an...

Japanese round robin analysis for probabilistic fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yagawa, G.; Yoshimura, S.; Handa, N.

1991-01-01

Recently attention is focused on the probabilistic fracture mechanics, a branch of fracture mechanics with probability theory for a rational mean to assess the strength of components and structures. In particular, the probabilistic fracture mechanics is recognized as the powerful means for quantitative investigation of significance of factors and rational evaluation of life on problems involving a number of uncertainties, such as degradation of material strength, accuracy and frequency of inspection. Comparison with reference experiments are generally employed to assure the analytical accuracy. However, accuracy and reliability of analytical methods in the probabilistic fracture mechanics are hardly verified by experiments. Therefore, it is strongly needed to verify the probabilistic fracture mechanics through the round robin analysis. This paper describes results from the round robin analysis of flat plate with semi-elliptic cracks on the surface, conducted by the PFM Working Group of LE Subcommittee of the Japan Welding Society under the contract of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute and participated by Tokyo University, Yokohama National University, the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Corporation, Tokyo Electric Power Co. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Toshiba Corporation, Kawasaki Heavy Industry Co. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industry Co. (author)

National Mental Health Services Survey (N-MHSS-2010)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Mental Health Services Survey (N-MHSS) is an annual survey designed to collect statistical information on the numbers and characteristics of all known...

Transferring 2001 National Household Travel Survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Patricia S [ORNL; Reuscher, Tim [ORNL; Schmoyer, Richard L [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL

2007-05-01

Policy makers rely on transportation statistics, including data on personal travel behavior, to formulate strategic transportation policies, and to improve the safety and efficiency of the U.S. transportation system. Data on personal travel trends are needed to examine the reliability, efficiency, capacity, and flexibility of the Nation's transportation system to meet current demands and to accommodate future demand. These data are also needed to assess the feasibility and efficiency of alternative congestion-mitigating technologies (e.g., high-speed rail, magnetically levitated trains, and intelligent vehicle and highway systems); to evaluate the merits of alternative transportation investment programs; and to assess the energy-use and air-quality impacts of various policies. To address these data needs, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) initiated an effort in 1969 to collect detailed data on personal travel. The 1969 survey was the first Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS). The survey was conducted again in 1977, 1983, 1990, 1995, and 2001. Data on daily travel were collected in 1969, 1977, 1983, 1990 and 1995. In 2001, the survey was renamed the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and it collected both daily and long-distance trips. The 2001 survey was sponsored by three USDOT agencies: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The primary objective of the survey was to collect trip-based data on the nature and characteristics of personal travel so that the relationships between the characteristics of personal travel and the demographics of the traveler can be established. Commercial and institutional travel were not part of the survey. Due to the survey's design, data in the NHTS survey series were not recommended for estimating travel statistics for categories smaller than the combination of Census division (e.g., New

National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) is designed to collect data on the utilization and provision of ambulatory care services in hospital...

Methodology of the National School-based Health Survey in Malaysia, 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Yusoff, Fadhli; Saari, Riyanti; Naidu, Balkish M; Ahmad, Noor Ani; Omar, Azahadi; Aris, Tahir

2014-09-01

The National School-Based Health Survey 2012 was a nationwide school health survey of students in Standard 4 to Form 5 (10-17 years of age), who were schooling in government schools in Malaysia during the period of data collection. The survey comprised 3 subsurveys: the Global School Health Survey (GSHS), the Mental Health Survey, and the National School-Based Nutrition Survey. The aim of the survey was to provide data on the health status of adolescents in Malaysia toward strengthening the adolescent health program in the country. The design of the survey was created to fulfill the requirements of the 3 subsurveys. A 2-stage stratified sampling method was adopted in the sampling. The methods for data collection were via questionnaire and physical examination. The National School-Based Health Survey 2012 adopted an appropriate methodology for a school-based survey to ensure valid and reliable findings. © 2014 APJPH.

National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA-1999)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) series measures the prevalence and correlates of drug use in the United States. The surveys are designed to...

National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA-1998)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) series measures the prevalence and correlates of drug use in the United States. The surveys are designed to...

National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA-2001)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) series measures the prevalence and correlates of drug use in the United States. The surveys are designed to...

National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA-2000)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) series measures the prevalence and correlates of drug use in the United States. The surveys are designed to...

Efficient probabilistic inference in generic neural networks trained with non-probabilistic feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-07-26

Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of SSME Turbopump Blades: Probabilistic Geometry Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Nagpal, V. K.

1985-01-01

A probabilistic study was initiated to evaluate the precisions of the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades. To complete this study, a number of important probabilistic variables were identified which are conceived to affect the structural response of the blade. In addition, a methodology was developed to statistically quantify the influence of these probabilistic variables in an optimized way. The identified variables include random geometric and material properties perturbations, different loadings and a probabilistic combination of these loadings. Influences of these probabilistic variables are planned to be quantified by evaluating the blade structural response. Studies of the geometric perturbations were conducted for a flat plate geometry as well as for a space shuttle main engine blade geometry using a special purpose code which uses the finite element approach. Analyses indicate that the variances of the perturbations about given mean values have significant influence on the response.

Applications of probabilistic techniques at NRC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thadani, A.; Rowsome, F.; Speis, T.

1984-01-01

The NRC is currently making extensive use of probabilistic safety assessment in the reactor regulation. Most of these applications have been introduced in the regulatory activities in the past few years. Plant Probabilistic Safety Studies are being utilized as a design tool for applications for standard designs and for assessment of plants located in regions of particularly high population density. There is considerable motivation for licenses to perform plant-specific probabilistic studies for many, if not all, of the existing operating nuclear power plants as a tool for prioritizing the implementation of the many outstanding licensing actions of these plants as well as recommending the elimination of a number of these issues which are judged to be insignificant in terms of their contribution to safety and risk. Risk assessment perspectives are being used in the priorization of generic safety issues, development of technical resolution of unresolved safety issues, assessing safety significance of proposed new regulatory requirements, assessment of safety significance of some of the occurrences at operating facilities and in environmental impact analyses of license applicants as required by the National Environmental Policy Act. (orig.)

Applying national survey results for strategic planning and program improvement: the National Diabetes Education Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffey, Susan; Piccinino, Linda; Gallivan, Joanne; Lotenberg, Lynne Doner; Tuncer, Diane

2015-02-01

Since the 1970s, the federal government has spearheaded major national education programs to reduce the burden of chronic diseases in the United States. These prevention and disease management programs communicate critical information to the public, those affected by the disease, and health care providers. The National Diabetes Education Program (NDEP), the leading federal program on diabetes sponsored by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), uses primary and secondary quantitative data and qualitative audience research to guide program planning and evaluation. Since 2006, the NDEP has filled the gaps in existing quantitative data sources by conducting its own population-based survey, the NDEP National Diabetes Survey (NNDS). The NNDS is conducted every 2–3 years and tracks changes in knowledge, attitudes and practice indicators in key target audiences. This article describes how the NDEP has used the NNDS as a key component of its evaluation framework and how it applies the survey results for strategic planning and program improvement. The NDEP's use of the NNDS illustrates how a program evaluation framework that includes periodic population-based surveys can serve as an evaluation model for similar national health education programs.

Journal Articles Applying National Aquatic Resource Survey Data

Science.gov (United States)

The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) data are being used and applied above and beyond the regional and national assessments. This page includes a list of recent journal articles that reference NARS data.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 1995 customer satisfaction survey

Science.gov (United States)

1996-05-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) conducted a national Customer Satisfaction Survey in response to the requirements of the National Performance Review and Executive Order 12862. An independent research organization, Schulman,...

National Youth Survey US: Wave IV (NYS-1979)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Youth data for the fourth wave of the National Youth Survey are contained in this data collection. The first wave of this survey was conducted in 1976, the second...

Prevalence of anemia in children 1 to 12 years of age: results from a nationwide probabilistic survey in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Villalpando Salvador

2003-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology and analyze factors associated with iron deficiency anemia in a probabilistic sample of the Encuesta Nacional de Nutrición 1999 (ENN-99 [National Nutritional Survey 1999 (NNS-99]. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The sample included 8 111 children aged 1 to 12 years, and was nationaly representative by rural and urban strata and by four geographical regions. Capillary hemoglobin was measured using a portable photometer (HemoCue. The analysis of the determining factors of anemia was performed by odds ratios derived from a logistic regression model and multiple regression models. RESULTS: The prevalence of anemia was 50% in infants <2 years of age, with no significant differences between urban and rural strata or among regions. It varied between 14 and 22% in 6-11 year-old children and was higher in the South region and among the indigenous children. Dietary intake of iron was 50% of the recommended daily allowance in children <2 years of age, but not in older children. Phytate (»500-800 mg/d and tannin (»19 mg/d intakes were very high in children over 7 years of age. Hemoglobin was positively associated with nutritional status of children (p=0.01, socioeconomic status (p range 0.05-0.001, duration of lactation in children under 2 years of age (p=0.1, and iron and calcium intake (p=0.02, but not with folic acid or vitamin B12 intake. Hemoglobin was negatively associated with maternal education (p=0.01 in older children, but not in those under 2 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: We present evidence of an alarming national epidemic of anemia, particularly marked in children 12 to 24 months of age. The control of anemia should be considered as an urgent national concern given its grave consequences on the physical and mental development of these children and on their long-term health.

On Probabilistic Alpha-Fuzzy Fixed Points and Related Convergence Results in Probabilistic Metric and Menger Spaces under Some Pompeiu-Hausdorff-Like Probabilistic Contractive Conditions

OpenAIRE

De la Sen, M.

2015-01-01

In the framework of complete probabilistic metric spaces and, in particular, in probabilistic Menger spaces, this paper investigates some relevant properties of convergence of sequences to probabilistic α-fuzzy fixed points under some types of probabilistic contractive conditions.

National Youth Survey US: Wave V (NYS-1980)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Youth data for the fifth wave of the National Youth Survey are contained in this collection. The first wave of this survey was conducted in 1976, the second wave in...

Cross-Continental Comparison of National Food Consumption Survey Methods—A Narrative Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Willem De Keyzer

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Food consumption surveys are performed in many countries. Comparison of results from those surveys across nations is difficult because of differences in methodological approaches. While consensus about the preferred methodology associated with national food consumption surveys is increasing, no inventory of methodological aspects across continents is available. The aims of the present review are (1 to develop a framework of key methodological elements related to national food consumption surveys, (2 to create an inventory of these properties of surveys performed in the continents North-America, South-America, Asia and Australasia, and (3 to discuss and compare these methodological properties cross-continentally. A literature search was performed using a fixed set of search terms in different databases. The inventory was completed with all accessible information from all retrieved publications and corresponding authors were requested to provide additional information where missing. Surveys from ten individual countries, originating from four continents are listed in the inventory. The results are presented according to six major aspects of food consumption surveys. The most common dietary intake assessment method used in food consumption surveys worldwide is the 24-HDR (24 h dietary recall, occasionally administered repeatedly, mostly using interview software. Only three countries have incorporated their national food consumption surveys into continuous national health and nutrition examination surveys.

National health and nutrition examination survey: plan and operations, 1999-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Zipf, George; Chiappa, Michele; Porter, Kathryn S; Ostchega, Yechiam; Lewis, Brenda G; Dostal, Jennifer

2013-08-01

Background-Starting in 1999, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) became a continuous, ongoing annual survey of the noninstitutionalized civilian resident population of the United States. A continuous survey allowed content to change to meet emerging needs. Objective-This report describes how NHANES for 1999-2010 was designed and implemented. NHANES is a national survey designed to provide national estimates on various health-related topics. Methods-The survey used in-person face-to-face interviews and physical examinations for data collection. Approximately 5,000 people per year participated in NHANES. The 5,000 people surveyed each year are representative of the entire U.S. population. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.

2007-01-01

A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a

Probabilistic assessment methods as a tool for developing nations to make safety decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gumley, P.; Inamdar, S.V.

1985-01-01

This paper advocates the use of probabilistic safety assessment methods in making safety decisions. It discusses the question of adequate safety - what it means to a country buying a nuclear power plant, and how probabilistic safety assessment studies of the reference plant can be used for ensuring this adequate safety. It is proposed that adequate safety means ensuring that the plant would behave, in accident conditions, in a manner similar to the way it is expected to behave were it in the country of origin. For this one needs to know how the plant responds under somewhat altered conditions. These altered conditions can arise from such factors as varying reliability of electrical grids, different manufacturing technology, local systems design and operator capability. In the design of nuclear power plants, the traditional approach to safety has led to the belief that availability and effectiveness of safety systems alone are all that is required to ensure plant safety. This belief can result in design oversights leading to potential problems arising from the power production systems and the service systems. Participation by the buying country in the design of such systems, and understanding the safety implications thereof, can be facilitated by probabilistic safety assessment methods. This philosophy is illustrated in this paper by examples. (author)

Probabilistic Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt

2001-01-01

This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs.......This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs....

Do patient surveys work? The influence of a national survey programme on local quality-improvement initiatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Reeves, R; Seccombe, I

2008-12-01

To assess current attitudes towards the national patient survey programme in England, establish the extent to which survey results are used and identify barriers and incentives for using them. Qualitative interviews with hospital staff responsible for implementing the patient surveys (survey leads). National Health Service (NHS) hospital organisations (trusts) in England. Twenty-four patient survey leads for NHS trusts. Perceptions of the patient surveys were mainly positive and were reported to be improving. Interviewees welcomed the surveys' regular repetition and thought the questionnaires, survey methods and reporting of results, particularly inter-organisational benchmark charts, were of a good standard. The survey results were widely used in action planning and were thought to support organisational patient-centredness. There was variation in the extent to which trusts disseminated survey findings to patients, the public, staff and their board members. The most common barrier to using results was difficulty engaging clinicians because survey findings were not sufficiently specific to specialties, departments or wards. Limited statistical expertise and concerns that the surveys only covered a short time frame also contributed to some scepticism. Other perceived barriers included a lack of knowledge of effective interventions, and limited time and resources. Actual and potential incentives for using survey findings included giving the results higher weightings in the performance management system, financial targets, Payment by Results (PbR), Patient Choice, a patient-centred culture, leadership by senior members of the organisation, and boosting staff morale by disseminating positive survey findings. The national patient surveys are viewed positively, their repetition being an important factor in their success. The results could be used more effectively if they were more specific to smaller units.

Health Information National Trends Survey in American Sign Language (HINTS-ASL): Protocol for the Cultural Adaptation and Linguistic Validation of a National Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Kushalnagar, Poorna; Harris, Raychelle; Paludneviciene, Raylene; Hoglind, TraciAnn

2017-09-13

The Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) collects nationally representative data about the American's public use of health-related information. This survey is available in English and Spanish, but not in American Sign Language (ASL). Thus, the exclusion of ASL users from these national health information survey studies has led to a significant gap in knowledge of Internet usage for health information access in this underserved and understudied population. The objectives of this study are (1) to culturally adapt and linguistically translate the HINTS items to ASL (HINTS-ASL); and (2) to gather information about deaf people's health information seeking behaviors across technology-mediated platforms. We modified the standard procedures developed at the US National Center for Health Statistics Cognitive Survey Laboratory to culturally adapt and translate HINTS items to ASL. Cognitive interviews were conducted to assess clarity and delivery of these HINTS-ASL items. Final ASL video items were uploaded to a protected online survey website. The HINTS-ASL online survey has been administered to over 1350 deaf adults (ages 18 to 90 and up) who use ASL. Data collection is ongoing and includes deaf adult signers across the United States. Some items from HINTS item bank required cultural adaptation for use with deaf people who use accessible services or technology. A separate item bank for deaf-related experiences was created, reflecting deaf-specific technology such as sharing health-related ASL videos through social network sites and using video remote interpreting services in health settings. After data collection is complete, we will conduct a series of analyses on deaf people's health information seeking behaviors across technology-mediated platforms. HINTS-ASL is an accessible health information national trends survey, which includes a culturally appropriate set of items that are relevant to the experiences of deaf people who use ASL. The final HINTS

National survey of residential magnetic field exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karipidis, K.K.

2002-01-01

The release of the Doll report in the UK, and its reported association between prolonged exposures to higher levels of power frequency magnetic fields and a small risk of leukaemia in children, has heightened community concerns. This disquiet among the general public has prompted the possibility of a national survey of residential magnetic field exposures to be implemented. Measurement methodologies were reviewed by the author and long-term measurements made by a logger placed in the living room for a 24-hour period were chosen as a surrogate measurement for the evaluation of exposure. An international comparison of similar surveys is presented, showing great deficiency, with the exception of Schuz et al and the UKCCS, in the number of homes surveyed. Factors influencing the selection of residences in the survey sample are elucidated and a range of sample sizes is presented with varying precision and confidence levels. Finally a feasible sample of 1,000 homes is chosen and a cost estimate is calculated with extra options for the measurement of the child's bedroom, a schools' survey and child personal exposure measurements included in the outlay. The purpose of the proposed national survey is to determine the proportion of Australian homes that are exposed to fields greater than 0.4 μT and the influence of proximity to powerlines as a cause. The study would also enable an interstate and international comparison of exposures to be made. Copyright (2002) Australasian Radiation Protection Society Inc

Probabilistic Logical Characterization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermanns, Holger; Parma, Augusto; Segala, Roberto

2011-01-01

Probabilistic automata exhibit both probabilistic and non-deterministic choice. They are therefore a powerful semantic foundation for modeling concurrent systems with random phenomena arising in many applications ranging from artificial intelligence, security, systems biology to performance...... modeling. Several variations of bisimulation and simulation relations have proved to be useful as means to abstract and compare different automata. This paper develops a taxonomy of logical characterizations of these relations on image-finite and image-infinite probabilistic automata....

Probabilistic metric spaces

CERN Document Server

Schweizer, B

2005-01-01

Topics include special classes of probabilistic metric spaces, topologies, and several related structures, such as probabilistic normed and inner-product spaces. 1983 edition, updated with 3 new appendixes. Includes 17 illustrations.

Improved Point-source Detection in Crowded Fields Using Probabilistic Cataloging

Science.gov (United States)

Portillo, Stephen K. N.; Lee, Benjamin C. G.; Daylan, Tansu; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

2017-10-01

Cataloging is challenging in crowded fields because sources are extremely covariant with their neighbors and blending makes even the number of sources ambiguous. We present the first optical probabilistic catalog, cataloging a crowded (˜0.1 sources per pixel brighter than 22nd mag in F606W) Sloan Digital Sky Survey r-band image from M2. Probabilistic cataloging returns an ensemble of catalogs inferred from the image and thus can capture source-source covariance and deblending ambiguities. By comparing to a traditional catalog of the same image and a Hubble Space Telescope catalog of the same region, we show that our catalog ensemble better recovers sources from the image. It goes more than a magnitude deeper than the traditional catalog while having a lower false-discovery rate brighter than 20th mag. We also present an algorithm for reducing this catalog ensemble to a condensed catalog that is similar to a traditional catalog, except that it explicitly marginalizes over source-source covariances and nuisance parameters. We show that this condensed catalog has a similar completeness and false-discovery rate to the catalog ensemble. Future telescopes will be more sensitive, and thus more of their images will be crowded. Probabilistic cataloging performs better than existing software in crowded fields and so should be considered when creating photometric pipelines in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope era.

Cross-continental comparison of national food consumption survey methods--a narrative review

Science.gov (United States)

Food consumption surveys are performed in many countries. Comparison of results from those surveys across nations is difficult because of differences in methodological approaches. While consensus about the preferred methodology associated with national food consumption surveys is increasing, no in...

Probabilistic record linkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona

2016-06-01

Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Teaching Psychiatry Residents to Teach: A National Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Crisp-Han, Holly; Chambliss, R. Bryan; Coverdale, John

2013-01-01

Objective: Because there have been no previously published national surveys on teaching psychiatry residents about how to teach, the authors surveyed United States psychiatry program directors on what and how residents are taught about teaching. Methods: All psychiatry training programs across the United States were mailed a semistructured…

Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slomp Robert

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The WTI2017 project is responsible for the development of flood defence assessment tools for the 3600 km of Dutch primary flood defences, dikes/levees, dunes and hydraulic structures. These tools are necessary, as per January 1st 2017, the new flood risk management policy for the Netherlands will be implemented. Then, the seven decades old design practice (maximum water level methodology of 1958 and two decades old safety standards (and maximum hydraulic load methodology of 1996 will formally be replaced by a more risked based approach for the national policy in flood risk management. The formal flood defence assessment is an important part of this new policy, especially for flood defence managers, since national and regional funding for reinforcement is based on this assessment. This new flood defence policy is based on a maximum allowable probability of flooding. For this, a maximum acceptable individual risk was determined at 1/100 000 per year, this is the probability of life loss of for every protected area in the Netherlands. Safety standards of flood defences were then determined based on this acceptable individual risk. The results were adjusted based on information from cost -benefit analysis, societal risk and large scale societal disruption due to the failure of critical infrastructure e.g. power stations. The resulting riskbased flood defence safety standards range from a 300 to a 100 000 year return period for failure. Two policy studies, WV21 (Safety from floods in the 21st century and VNK-2 (the National Flood Risk in 2010 provided the essential information to determine the new risk based safety standards for flood defences. The WTI2017 project will provide the safety assessment tools based on these new standards and is thus an essential element for the implementation of this policy change. A major issue to be tackled was the development of user-friendly tools, as the new assessment is to be carried out by personnel of the

Symposium on cross national comparisons: Youth population surveys about child maltreatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helweg-Larsen, Karin; Larsen, Helmer Bøving

Cross National Comparisons: Youth Population Surveys About Child Maltreatment In this multi-session track, researchers will present the results concerning the epidemiology of child maltreatment from over one dozen general population surveys of youth, covering four continents and portions...... of the world where epidemiologic data has not been previously available. Organizers will request in advance that the presenters include some data in formats that can be compared across studies. In a final session, the organizers will lead a discussion about the challenges of national surveys and cross national...

Implementation of a national anti-tuberculosis drug resistance survey in Tanzania

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chonde, Timothy M.; Doulla, Basra; van Leth, Frank; Mfinanga, Sayoki G. M.; Range, Nyagosya; Lwilla, Fred; Mfaume, Saidi M.; van Deun, Armand; Zignol, Matteo; Cobelens, Frank G.; Egwaga, Saidi M.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: A drug resistance survey is an essential public health management tool for evaluating and improving the performance of National Tuberculosis control programmes. The current manuscript describes the implementation of the first national drug resistance survey in Tanzania. METHODS:

Self-reported physical activity among blacks: estimates from national surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitt-Glover, Melicia C; Taylor, Wendell C; Heath, Gregory W; Macera, Caroline A

2007-11-01

National surveillance data provide population-level estimates of physical activity participation, but generally do not include detailed subgroup analyses, which could provide a better understanding of physical activity among subgroups. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of self-reported regular physical activity among black adults using data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n=19,189), the 2004 National Health Interview Survey (n=4263), and the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n=3407). Analyses were conducted between January and March 2006. Datasets were analyzed separately to estimate the proportion of black adults meeting national physical activity recommendations overall and stratified by gender and other demographic subgroups. The proportion of black adults reporting regular PA ranged from 24% to 36%. Regular physical activity was highest among men; younger age groups; highest education and income groups; those who were employed and married; overweight, but not obese, men; and normal-weight women. This pattern was consistent across surveys. The observed physical activity patterns were consistent with national trends. The data suggest that older black adults and those with low education and income levels are at greatest risk for inactive lifestyles and may require additional attention in efforts to increase physical activity in black adults. The variability across datasets reinforces the need for objective measures in national surveys.

Results From the 2014 National Wilderness Manager Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Ramesh Ghimire; Ken Cordell; Alan Watson; Chad Dawson; Gary T. Green

2015-01-01

A national survey of managers was developed to support interagency wilderness strategic planning. The focus was on major challenges, perceived needs for science and training, and accomplishments of 1995 Strategic Plan objectives. The survey was administered to managers at the four federal agencies with wilderness management responsibilities: the Bureau of Land...

Geodetic Control Points - National Geodetic Survey Benchmarks

Data.gov (United States)

NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — This data contains a set of geodetic control stations maintained by the National Geodetic Survey. Each geodetic control station in this dataset has either a precise...

On the Measurement and Properties of Ambiguity in Probabilistic Expectations

Science.gov (United States)

Pickett, Justin T.; Loughran, Thomas A.; Bushway, Shawn

2015-01-01

Survey respondents' probabilistic expectations are now widely used in many fields to study risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and behavior. Researchers have developed several methods to account for the fact that the probability of an event may be more ambiguous for some respondents than others, but few prior studies have empirically…

Comparison of Two Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Approaches Using Prognostic Performance Metrics

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A general framework for probabilistic prognosis using maximum entropy approach, MRE, is proposed in this paper to include all available information and uncertainties...

Mesh Independent Probabilistic Residual Life Prediction of Metallic Airframe Structures, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Engineering and Materials, Inc. (GEM) along with its team members, Clarkson University and LM Aero, propose to develop a mesh independent probabilistic...

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1999-2000 forward. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is a program of studies designed to assess the health and nutritional status of...

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Codes Validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savy, J B

2003-01-01

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time-period. LLNL has been developing the methodology and codes in support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) needs for reviews of site licensing of nuclear power plants, since 1978. A number of existing computer codes have been validated and still can lead to ranges of hazard estimates in some cases. Until now, the seismic hazard community had not agreed on any specific method for evaluation of these codes. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) and the Pacific Engineering Earthquake Research (PEER) center organized an exercise in testing of existing codes with the aim of developing a series of standard tests that future developers could use to evaluate and calibrate their own codes. Seven code developers participated in the exercise, on a voluntary basis. Lawrence Livermore National laboratory participated with some support from the NRC. The final product of the study will include a series of criteria for judging of the validity of the results provided by a computer code. This EERI/PEER project was first planned to be completed by June of 2003. As the group neared completion of the tests, the managing team decided that new tests were necessary. As a result, the present report documents only the work performed to this point. It demonstrates that the computer codes developed by LLNL perform all calculations correctly and as intended. Differences exist between the results of the codes tested, that are attributed to a series of assumptions, on the parameters and models, that the developers had to make. The managing team is planning a new series of tests to help in reaching a consensus on these assumptions

Disjunctive Probabilistic Modal Logic is Enough for Bisimilarity on Reactive Probabilistic Systems

OpenAIRE

Bernardo, Marco; Miculan, Marino

2016-01-01

Larsen and Skou characterized probabilistic bisimilarity over reactive probabilistic systems with a logic including true, negation, conjunction, and a diamond modality decorated with a probabilistic lower bound. Later on, Desharnais, Edalat, and Panangaden showed that negation is not necessary to characterize the same equivalence. In this paper, we prove that the logical characterization holds also when conjunction is replaced by disjunction, with negation still being not necessary. To this e...

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration : 1997 customer satisfaction survey

Science.gov (United States)

1998-03-13

In 1995, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) conducted its first Customer Satisfaction Survey in response to the requirements of the National Performance Review and Executive Order 12862. An independent research organization, S...

Post-harmonised European National Travel Surveys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Linda; Sobrino Vázquez, Natalia

Look-up tables are collected and analysed for 12 European National Travel Surveys (NTS) in a harmonized way covering the age group 13-84 year. Travel behaviour measured as kilometres, time use and trips per traveller is compared. Trips per traveller are very similar over the countries whereas...... of walking trips rather similar with a higher level of cycling in the Netherlands, more public transport in Switzerland, and more air traffic in Sweden. Normally kilometres per respondent / inhabitant is used for national planning purpose and this is very affected by the share of mobile travellers...

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

Science.gov (United States)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.

2010-01-01

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

National Survey on Distracted Driving Attitudes and Behaviors - 2015

Science.gov (United States)

2018-03-01

The 2015 National Survey on Distracted Driving Attitudes and Behaviors (NSDDAB) is the third in a series of telephone surveys on distracted driving providing data to help further the understanding of driving behavior and to contribute to the developm...

The quality of sample surveys in a developing nation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul A Bourne

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Paul A Bourne1, Christopher AD Charles2,3, Neva South-Bourne4, Chloe Morris1, Denise Eldemire-Shearer1, Maureen D Kerr-Campbell51Department of Community Health and Psychiatry, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, Jamaica; 2King Graduate School, Monroe College, Bronx, New York, USA; 3Center for Victim Support, Harlem Hospital Center, New York, USA; 4Research assistant for Paul A Bourne; 5Systems Development Unit, Main Library, Faculty of Humanities and Education, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, JamaicaBackground: In Jamaica, population census began in 1844, and many intercensal ratios obtained from the census data showed that there is a general high degree of accuracy of the data. However, statistics from the Jamaican Ministry of Health showed that there are inaccuracies in health data collected from males using sample surveys.Objectives: The objectives of the present research are to 1 investigate the accuracy of a national sample survey, 2 explore the feasibility and quality of using a subnational sample survey to represent a national survey, 3 aid other scholars in understanding the probability of using national sample surveys and subnational sample surveys, 4 assess older men’s ­evaluation of their health status, and 5 determine whether dichotomization changes self-evaluated health status.Methods: For the current study, the data used in the analysis were originally collected from 2 different sources: 1 the Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions (JSLC and 2 Survey of Older Men (SOM. Cross validation of self-evaluated data of men in Jamaica was done with comparable samples of the complete JSLC data and the SOM data, where men older than 55 years were selected from each sample.Results: In study 1, 50.2% of respondents indicated at least good self-evaluated health status compared with 74.0% in study 2. Statistical associations were found between health status and survey sample (Χ2 [df = 5

Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

Duplicate Detection in Probabilistic Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Panse, Fabian; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander; Ritter, Norbert

2009-01-01

Collected data often contains uncertainties. Probabilistic databases have been proposed to manage uncertain data. To combine data from multiple autonomous probabilistic databases, an integration of probabilistic data has to be performed. Until now, however, data integration approaches have focused

National nutrition surveys in Asian countries: surveillance and monitoring efforts to improve global health.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, SuJin; Song, Won O

2014-01-01

Asian regions have been suffering from growing double burden of nutritional health problems, such as undernutrition and chronic diseases. National nutrition survey plays an essential role in helping to improve both national and global health and reduce health disparities. The aim of this review was to compile and present the information on current national nutrition surveys conducted in Asian countries and suggest relevant issues in implementation of national nutrition surveys. Fifteen countries in Asia have conducted national nutrition surveys to collect data on nutrition and health status of the population. The information on national nutrition survey of each country was obtained from government documents, international organizations, survey website of governmental agencies, and publications, including journal articles, books, reports, and brochures. The national nutrition survey of each country has different variables and procedures. Variables of the surveys include sociodemographic and lifestyle variables; foods and beverages intake, dietary habits, and food security of individual or household; and health indicators, such as anthropometric and biochemical variables. The surveys have focused on collecting data about nutritional health status in children aged under five years and women of reproductive ages, nutrition intake adequacy and prevalence of obesity and chronic diseases for all individuals. To measure nutrition and health status of Asian populations accurately, improvement of current dietary assessment methods with various diet evaluation tools is necessary. The information organized in this review is important for researchers, policy makers, public health program developers, educators, and consumers in improving national and global health.

2007 national roadside survey of alcohol and drug use by drivers : drug results.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-12-01

This report presents the first national prevalence estimates for drug-involved driving derived from the recently : completed 2007 National Roadside Survey (NRS). The NRS is a national field survey of alcohol- and drug-involved : driving conducted pri...

[Formulation of technical specification for national survey of Chinese materia medica resources].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Lan-Ping; Lu, Jian-Wei; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Zhao, Run-Huai; Zhang, Ben-Gang; Sun, Li-Ying; Huang, Lu-Qi

2013-04-01

According to the process of the technical specification (TS) design for the fourth national survey of the Chinese materia medica resources (CMMR), we analyzed the assignment and objectives of the national survey and pointed out that the differences about CMMR management around China, the distribution of CMMR and their habitat, the economic and technological level, and even enthusiasm and initiative of the staff, etc. are the most difficult points for TS design. And we adopt the principle of combination of the mandatory and flexibility in TS design. We fixed the key points which would affect the quality of national survey first, then proposed the framework of TS which including 3 parts of organization and 11 parts of technique itself. The framework will serve and lead the TS preparation, which will not only provide an action standard to the national survey but will also have a profound influence to the popularization and application of the survey technology of CMMR. [Key words

Probabilistic safety assessment for high-level waste tanks at Hanford

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sullivan, L.H.; MacFarlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.

1996-01-01

Los Alamos National Laboratory has performed a comprehensive probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), including consideration of external events, for the 18 tank farms at the Hanford Tank Farm (HTF). This work was sponsored by the Department of Energy/Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Division (DOE/EM)

National neonatal weight policy survey.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Walsh, B

2012-02-01

This survey was conducted to review the current practice regarding frequency of weight measurement in neonatal units in the Republic of Ireland, and whether these practices are in keeping with best practice as described in the literature. There was an 88.5% (23 of 26) response rate to this survey. 6 (26%) units had a written policy, and 16 (70%) had an unwritten agreed practice. In the Vermont Oxford Network\\'s potentially better practices daily weight measurements on newborn infants are recommended until the infant is stable and growing and then alternate day measurements The most common practices in this survey were to weigh infants on alternate days, this occurred in 9 (39%) units, and twice weekly in 6 (26%). Less than 31% of units had a separate policy for those less than 30 weeks, on assisted ventilation, or transitioning to enteral feeds. Most weigh infants on alternate days, and plot weights weekly, which is in keeping with best practice. Few units have separate policies for specific subgroups as is recommended in the limited literature. Consensus guidelines should be developed and promoted nationally.

National neonatal weight policy survey.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Walsh, B

2009-06-01

This survey was conducted to review the current practice regarding frequency of weight measurement in neonatal units in the Republic of Ireland, and whether these practices are in keeping with best practice as described in the literature. There was an 88.5% (23 of 26) response rate to this survey. 6 (26%) units had a written policy, and 16 (70%) had an unwritten agreed practice. In the Vermont Oxford Network\\'s potentially better practices daily weight measurements on newborn infants are recommended until the infant is stable and growing and then alternate day measurements The most common practices in this survey were to weigh infants on alternate days, this occurred in 9 (39%) units, and twice weekly in 6 (26%). Less than 31% of units had a separate policy for those less than 30 weeks, on assisted ventilation, or transitioning to enteral feeds. Most weigh infants on alternate days, and plot weights weekly, which is in keeping with best practice. Few units have separate policies for specific subgroups as is recommended in the limited literature. Consensus guidelines should be developed and promoted nationally.

Confluence reduction for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

In this presentation we introduce a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We proved that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To

Coverage of alcohol consumption by national surveys in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Probst, Charlotte; Shuper, Paul A; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Evidence suggests that adult per-capita alcohol consumption, as estimated from self-reports of nationally representative surveys, underestimates 'true' consumption, as measured as the sum of recorded and unrecorded consumption. The proportion of total adult alcohol per capita reported in representative surveys is usually labelled 'coverage'. The aim of the present paper was to estimate coverage for South Africa under different scenarios of alcohol use assessment and 'true' consumption. Five nationally representative surveys from South Africa were used to estimate the prevalence of drinking and the grams per day among current drinkers. All surveys used a complex multi-stage sampling frame that was accounted for by using survey weights. The total (recorded and unrecorded), the recorded and the adjusted total adult per-capita alcohol consumption in South Africa served as different estimates of the 'true' consumption. South Africa. Alcohol use information was assessed on a total of 8115, 16 398 and 13 181 adults (15 years or older) in surveys from the years 2003, 2005 and 2008, respectively. Two surveys in 2012 included 27 070 and 18 688 adults. Coverage of the alcohol use reported in the surveys was calculated, compared with the 'true' adult per-capita alcohol. The survey data covered between 11.8% [2005; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 9.3-16.2%)] and 19.4% (2003; 95% UI = 14.9-24.2%) of the total alcohol used per capita. The highest coverage of 27.9% (95% UI = 22.4-36.8%) was observed when looking only at recorded alcohol in 2003. Evidence from five nationally representative surveys assessing alcohol use suggests that less than 20% of the total adult per-capita alcohol consumption in South Africa is reported in surveys. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Development of RESRAD probabilistic computer codes for NRC decommissioning and license termination applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S. Y.; Yu, C.; Mo, T.; Trottier, C.

2000-01-01

In 1999, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tasked Argonne National Laboratory to modify the existing RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes to perform probabilistic, site-specific dose analysis for use with the NRC's Standard Review Plan for demonstrating compliance with the license termination rule. The RESRAD codes have been developed by Argonne to support the US Department of Energy's (DOEs) cleanup efforts. Through more than a decade of application, the codes already have established a large user base in the nation and a rigorous QA support. The primary objectives of the NRC task are to: (1) extend the codes' capabilities to include probabilistic analysis, and (2) develop parameter distribution functions and perform probabilistic analysis with the codes. The new codes also contain user-friendly features specially designed with graphic-user interface. In October 2000, the revised RESRAD (version 6.0) and RESRAD-BUILD (version 3.0), together with the user's guide and relevant parameter information, have been developed and are made available to the general public via the Internet for use

[Colombia 2015 National Mental Health Survey. Study Protocol].

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Restrepo, Carlos; de Santacruz, Cecilia; Rodriguez, María Nelcy; Rodriguez, Viviana; Tamayo Martínez, Nathalie; Matallana, Diana; Gonzalez, Lina M

2016-12-01

The 2015 National Mental Health Survey (NMHS) is the fourth mental survey conducted in Colombia, and is part of the National System of Surveys and Population Studies for health. A narrative description is used to explain the background, references, the preparation, and characteristics of the 2015 NMHS. The 2015 NMHS and its protocol emerge from the requirements that support the national and international policies related to mental health. Together with the Ministry of Health and Social Protection, the objectives, the collection tools, the sample, and the operational plan are defined. The main objective was to obtain updated information about the mental health, mental problems and disorders, accessibility to health services, and an evaluation of health conditions. Participants were inhabitants from both urban and rural areas, over 7 years old, and in whom the comprehension of social determinants and equity were privileged. An observational cross-sectional design with national, regional and age group representativity, was used. The age groups selected were 7-11, 12-17, and over 18 years old. The regions considered were Central, Orient, Atlantic, Pacific, and Bogota. The calculated sample had a minimum of 12,080 and a maximum of 14,496 participants. A brief summary of the protocol of the 2015 NMHS is presented. The full document with all the collection tools can be consulted on the Health Ministry webpage. Copyright © 2016. Publicado por Elsevier España.

SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payne, Suzette; Coppersmith, Ryan; Coppersmith, Kevin; Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian; Falero, Valentina Montaldo; Youngs, Robert

2016-01-01

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Naval Reactors Facility (NRF), and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) (Figure 1-1). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures appropriate for a Study Level 1 provided in the guidance advanced by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) NUREG/CR-6372 and NUREG-2117 (NRC, 1997; 2012a). The SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs for MFC and ATR were conducted as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project (INL Project number 31287) to develop and apply a new-risk informed methodology, respectively. The SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels. The SRA project is developing a new risk-informed methodology that will provide a systematic approach for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The new methodology proposes criteria to be employed at specific analysis, decision, or comparison points in its evaluation process. The first four of seven criteria address changes in inputs and results of the PSHA and are given in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standard, DOE-STD-1020-2012 (DOE, 2012a) and American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) 2.29 (ANS, 2008a). The last three criteria address evaluation of quantitative hazard and risk-focused information of an existing nuclear facility. The seven criteria and decision points are applied to Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3, 4, and 5, which are defined in American Society of Civil Engineers/Structural Engineers Institute (ASCE/SEI) 43-05 (ASCE, 2005). The application of the criteria and decision points could lead to an update or could determine that such update is not necessary.

SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Payne, Suzette [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coppersmith, Ryan [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coppersmith, Kevin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Falero, Valentina Montaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Youngs, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Naval Reactors Facility (NRF), and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) (Figure 1-1). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures appropriate for a Study Level 1 provided in the guidance advanced by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) NUREG/CR-6372 and NUREG-2117 (NRC, 1997; 2012a). The SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs for MFC and ATR were conducted as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project (INL Project number 31287) to develop and apply a new-risk informed methodology, respectively. The SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels. The SRA project is developing a new risk-informed methodology that will provide a systematic approach for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The new methodology proposes criteria to be employed at specific analysis, decision, or comparison points in its evaluation process. The first four of seven criteria address changes in inputs and results of the PSHA and are given in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standard, DOE-STD-1020-2012 (DOE, 2012a) and American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) 2.29 (ANS, 2008a). The last three criteria address evaluation of quantitative hazard and risk-focused information of an existing nuclear facility. The seven criteria and decision points are applied to Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3, 4, and 5, which are defined in American Society of Civil Engineers/Structural Engineers Institute (ASCE/SEI) 43-05 (ASCE, 2005). The application of the criteria and decision points could lead to an update or could determine that such update is not necessary.

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

2004-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

Secondary Data Analysis of National Surveys in Japan Toward Improving Population Health

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeda, Nayu

2016-01-01

Secondary data analysis of national health surveys of the general population is a standard methodology for health metrics and evaluation; it is used to monitor trends in population health over time and benchmark the performance of health systems. In Japan, the government has established electronic databases of individual records from national surveys of the population’s health. However, the number of publications based on these datasets is small considering the scale and coverage of the surveys. There appear to be two major obstacles to the secondary use of Japanese national health survey data: strict data access control under the Statistics Act and an inadequate interdisciplinary research environment for resolving methodological difficulties encountered when dealing with secondary data. The usefulness of secondary analysis of survey data is evident with examples from the author’s previous studies based on vital records and the National Health and Nutrition Surveys, which showed that (i) tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases in Japan; (ii) the decrease in mean blood pressure in Japan from the late 1980s to the early 2000s was partly attributable to the increased use of antihypertensive medication and reduced dietary salt intake; and (iii) progress in treatment coverage and control of high blood pressure is slower in Japan than in the United States and Britain. National health surveys in Japan are an invaluable asset, and findings from secondary analyses of these surveys would provide important suggestions for improving health in people around the world. PMID:26902170

Accuracy of Probabilistic Linkage Using the Enhanced Matching System for Public Health and Epidemiological Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Aldridge, Robert W; Shaji, Kunju; Hayward, Andrew C; Abubakar, Ibrahim

2015-01-01

The Enhanced Matching System (EMS) is a probabilistic record linkage program developed by the tuberculosis section at Public Health England to match data for individuals across two datasets. This paper outlines how EMS works and investigates its accuracy for linkage across public health datasets. EMS is a configurable Microsoft SQL Server database program. To examine the accuracy of EMS, two public health databases were matched using National Health Service (NHS) numbers as a gold standard unique identifier. Probabilistic linkage was then performed on the same two datasets without inclusion of NHS number. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to examine the effect of varying matching process parameters. Exact matching using NHS number between two datasets (containing 5931 and 1759 records) identified 1071 matched pairs. EMS probabilistic linkage identified 1068 record pairs. The sensitivity of probabilistic linkage was calculated as 99.5% (95%CI: 98.9, 99.8), specificity 100.0% (95%CI: 99.9, 100.0), positive predictive value 99.8% (95%CI: 99.3, 100.0), and negative predictive value 99.9% (95%CI: 99.8, 100.0). Probabilistic matching was most accurate when including address variables and using the automatically generated threshold for determining links with manual review. With the establishment of national electronic datasets across health and social care, EMS enables previously unanswerable research questions to be tackled with confidence in the accuracy of the linkage process. In scenarios where a small sample is being matched into a very large database (such as national records of hospital attendance) then, compared to results presented in this analysis, the positive predictive value or sensitivity may drop according to the prevalence of matches between databases. Despite this possible limitation, probabilistic linkage has great potential to be used where exact matching using a common identifier is not possible, including in low-income settings, and for vulnerable

Earthquake Scenarios Based Upon the Data and Methodologies of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

Science.gov (United States)

Rukstales, K. S.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D.; Harmsen, S. C.; Wald, D. J.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Haller, K. M.

2011-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthquake scenarios that are based on the same fault source parameters and empirical ground motion prediction equations used for the probabilistic hazard maps. Unlike the calculated hazard map ground motions, local soil amplification is applied to the scenario calculations based on the best available Vs30 (average shear-wave velocity down to 30 meters) mapping, or in some cases using topographic slope as a proxy. Systematic outputs include all standard USGS ShakeMap products, including GIS, KML, XML, and HAZUS input files. These data are available from the ShakeMap web pages with a searchable archive. The scenarios are being produced within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS) so that alternative scenarios can readily be produced by altering fault source parameters, Vs30 soil amplification, as well as the weighting of ground motion prediction equations used in the calculations. The alternative scenarios can then be used for sensitivity analysis studies to better characterize uncertainty in the source model and convey this information to decision makers. By providing a comprehensive collection of earthquake scenarios based upon the established data and methods of the USGS NSHMP, we hope to provide a well-documented source of data which can be used for visualization, planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and research purposes.

Amphetamine-type stimulant use and conditional paths of consumption: data from the Second Brazilian National Alcohol and Drugs Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciana T.S. Massaro

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate nationally representative prevalence rates of amphetamine-type stimulant (ATS use and to identify consumption-associated factors, proposing a conditional model of direct and indirect consumption paths. Method: Using data from the Second Brazilian National Alcohol and Drugs Survey, this cross-sectional study analyzed a subsample of 3,828 participants between 15 and 64 years old, gathering information on the use of psychoactive substances in a probabilistic sample of the Brazilian household population. Results: Rates of lifetime and last-year ATS use were, respectively, 4.1 and 1.6%. Economically privileged individuals and users of other substances were more at risk for using ATS. The results suggest that higher education decreases the chances of ATS consumption. The conditional model showed that higher income increased ATS use, higher education lowered the odds of such an increase, and cocaine use cancelled that associative effect. Conclusion: Brazil presents high rates of ATS use. Prevention and treatment strategies should focus on the protective effect of higher education levels and should target polydrug use. Knowledge of ATS-associated factors and user profiles is the starting point for developing effective treatments and tailored prevention strategies.

Probabilistic reconstruction of internal exposure for nuclear power plant workers using air concentration measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, I.; Burmistrov, D.

2000-01-01

Air surveys, whole-body counting, bioassays or combination of these measurements can be utilized for purposes or assessing internal doses to determine compliance with occupational dose equivalent limits. Air sampling with a little support provided by whole body counting and/or bioassays was often relied on in dose calculations. The utility of air sampling for internal dose reconstruction is addressed in this paper through the probabilistic analysis of environmental factors and their impact on dose estimates. In this paper we attempt to reconstruct an internal dose due to inhalation of beta + gamma emitting radionuclides for a contractual electrician, Mr. X. The data available for reconstruction of internal dose for Mr. X was found to be highly variable and uncertain. Uncertainty describes a lack of knowledge about a parameter, this lack of knowledge theoretically can be reduced, e.g., if more measurements were to be taken (for example, estimated activities for alpha-emitting radionuclides are uncertain due to the influence of naturally-occurring alpha-emitters). Variability describes the existence of different values that represent different environmental conditions (for example, the air concentrations of radionuclides may vary over time because of the different tasks performed by workers in the area). Variability can not be reduced by additional data collection because the varying values reflect the variable nature of the environment, not a lack of data. The high variability in measured air concentrations in the restricted areas of a LWR nuclear power plant where he worked do not allow adequate reconstruction of his individual internal dose using deterministic methods and therefore probabilistic methods are desirable. The guidance for probabilistic assessment developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency as well as recommendations of the National Council of Radiation Protection provide an adequate framework for probabilistic reconstruction of

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

2003-01-01

Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

2003-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Students’ difficulties in probabilistic problem-solving

Science.gov (United States)

Arum, D. P.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Pramudya, I.

2018-03-01

There are many errors can be identified when students solving mathematics problems, particularly in solving the probabilistic problem. This present study aims to investigate students’ difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It focuses on analyzing and describing students errors during solving the problem. This research used the qualitative method with case study strategy. The subjects in this research involve ten students of 9th grade that were selected by purposive sampling. Data in this research involve students’ probabilistic problem-solving result and recorded interview regarding students’ difficulties in solving the problem. Those data were analyzed descriptively using Miles and Huberman steps. The results show that students have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem and can be divided into three categories. First difficulties relate to students’ difficulties in understanding the probabilistic problem. Second, students’ difficulties in choosing and using appropriate strategies for solving the problem. Third, students’ difficulties with the computational process in solving the problem. Based on the result seems that students still have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It means that students have not able to use their knowledge and ability for responding probabilistic problem yet. Therefore, it is important for mathematics teachers to plan probabilistic learning which could optimize students probabilistic thinking ability.

A General Framework for Probabilistic Characterizing Formulae

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sack, Joshua; Zhang, Lijun

2012-01-01

Recently, a general framework on characteristic formulae was proposed by Aceto et al. It offers a simple theory that allows one to easily obtain characteristic formulae of many non-probabilistic behavioral relations. Our paper studies their techniques in a probabilistic setting. We provide...... a general method for determining characteristic formulae of behavioral relations for probabilistic automata using fixed-point probability logics. We consider such behavioral relations as simulations and bisimulations, probabilistic bisimulations, probabilistic weak simulations, and probabilistic forward...

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-06-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) conducted April 6 through 17, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Individual team components are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with BNL. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations carried on at BNL, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing specific environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the BNL Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the BNL Survey. 80 refs., 24 figs., 48 tabs.

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-06-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) conducted April 6 through 17, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Individual team components are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with BNL. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations carried on at BNL, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing specific environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the BNL Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the BNL Survey. 80 refs., 24 figs., 48 tabs

A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Besterfield, G. H.

1987-01-01

A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.

Design and operation of the national home health aide survey: 2007-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Bercovitz, Anita; Moss, Abigail J; Sengupta, Manisha; Harris-Kojetin, Lauren D; Squillace, Marie R; Emily, Rosenoff; Branden, Laura

2010-03-01

This report provides an overview of the National Home Health Aide Survey (NHHAS), the first national probability survey of home health aides. NHHAS was designed to provide national estimates of home health aides who provided assistance in activities of daily living (ADLs) and were directly employed by agencies that provide home health and/or hospice care. This report discusses the need for and objectives of the survey, the design process, the survey methods, and data availability. METHODS NHHAS, a multistage probability sample survey, was conducted as a supplement to the 2007 National Home and Hospice Care Survey (NHHCS). Agencies providing home health and/or hospice care were sampled, and then aides employed by these agencies were sampled and interviewed by telephone. Survey topics included recruitment, training, job history, family life, client relations, work-related injuries, and demographics. NHHAS was virtually identical to the 2004 National Nursing Assistant Survey of certified nursing assistants employed in sampled nursing homes with minor changes to account for differences in workplace environment and responsibilities. RESULTS From September 2007 to April 2008, interviews were completed with 3,416 aides. A public-use data file that contains the interview responses, sampling weights, and design variables is available. The NHHAS overall response rate weighted by the inverse of the probability of selection was 41 percent. This rate is the product of the weighted first-stage agency response rate of 57 percent (i.e., weighted response rate of 59 percent for agency participation in NHHCS times the weighted response rate of 97 percent for agencies participating in NHHCS that also participated in NHHAS) and the weighted second-stage aide response rate of 72 percent to NHHAS.

Memristive Probabilistic Computing

KAUST Repository

Alahmadi, Hamzah

2017-10-01

In the era of Internet of Things and Big Data, unconventional techniques are rising to accommodate the large size of data and the resource constraints. New computing structures are advancing based on non-volatile memory technologies and different processing paradigms. Additionally, the intrinsic resiliency of current applications leads to the development of creative techniques in computations. In those applications, approximate computing provides a perfect fit to optimize the energy efficiency while compromising on the accuracy. In this work, we build probabilistic adders based on stochastic memristor. Probabilistic adders are analyzed with respect of the stochastic behavior of the underlying memristors. Multiple adder implementations are investigated and compared. The memristive probabilistic adder provides a different approach from the typical approximate CMOS adders. Furthermore, it allows for a high area saving and design exibility between the performance and power saving. To reach a similar performance level as approximate CMOS adders, the memristive adder achieves 60% of power saving. An image-compression application is investigated using the memristive probabilistic adders with the performance and the energy trade-off.

The international probabilistic system assessment group. Background and results 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) devotes considerable effort to the further development of methodologies to assess the performance of radioactive waste disposal systems, and to increase confidence in their application and results. The NEA provides an international forum for the exchange of information and experience among national experts of its twenty-three Member countries and conducts joint studies of issues important for safety assessment. In 1985, the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee set up the Probabilistic System Assessment Code User Group (PSAC), in order to help coordinate the development of probabilistic system assessment codes. The activities of the Group include exchange of information, code and experience, discussion of relevant technical issues, and the conduct of code comparison (PSACOIN) exercises designed to build confidence in the correct operation of these tools for safety assessment. The Group is now known simply as the Probabilistic System Assessment Group (PSAG). This report has been prepared to inform interested parties, beyond the group of specialists directly involved, about probabilistic system assessment techniques as used for performance assessment of waste disposal systems, and to give a summary of the objectives and achievements of PSAG. The report is published under the responsibility of the Secretary General of the OECD

National Geochemical Survey Locations and Results for Iowa

Data.gov (United States)

Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — The United States Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with other state and federal agencies, industry, and academia, is conducting a National Geochemical...

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haenni, R.; Romeijn, J.-W.; Wheeler, G.; Williamson, J.

2009-01-01

While in principle probabilistic logics might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied at present. This is perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. However, we shall argue in this programmatic paper that several approaches

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1987-12-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the Department of Energy (DOE) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), conducted December 1 through 19, 1986. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Individual team components are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with LLNL. The Survey covers all environmental media all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations performed at LLNL, and interviews with site personnel. A Sampling and Analysis Plan was developed to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during performance of on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by a DOE National Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the LLNL Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the LLNL Survey. 70 refs., 58 figs., 52 tabs.,

Guidance for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.-E.; Knochenhauer, M.

2011-05-01

The project 'The Validity of Safety Goals' has been financed jointly by NKS (Nordic Nuclear Safety Research), SSM (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority) and the Swedish and Finnish nuclear utilities. The national financing went through NPSAG, the Nordic PSA Group (Swedish contributions) and SAFIR2010, the Finnish research programme on NPP safety (Finnish contributions). The project has been performed in four phases during 2006-2010. This guidance document aims at describing, on the basis of the work performed throughout the project, issues to consider when defining, applying and interpreting probabilistic safety criteria. Thus, the basic aim of the document is to serve as a checklist and toolbox for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria. The document describes the terminology and concepts involved, the levels of criteria and relations between these, how to define a probabilistic safety criterion, how to apply a probabilistic safety criterion, on what to apply the probabilistic safety criterion, and how to interpret the result of the application. The document specifically deals with what makes up a probabilistic safety criterion, i.e., the risk metric, the frequency criterion, the PSA used for assessing compliance and the application procedure for the criterion. It also discusses the concept of subsidiary criteria, i.e., different levels of safety goals. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by safety authorities as a reference for risk-informed regulation. The outcome can have an impact on the requirements on PSA, e.g., regarding quality, scope, level of detail, and documentation. Finally, the results can be expected to support on-going activities concerning risk-informed applications. (Author)

Guidance for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)); Knochenhauer, M. (Scandpower AB (Sweden))

2011-05-15

The project 'The Validity of Safety Goals' has been financed jointly by NKS (Nordic Nuclear Safety Research), SSM (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority) and the Swedish and Finnish nuclear utilities. The national financing went through NPSAG, the Nordic PSA Group (Swedish contributions) and SAFIR2010, the Finnish research programme on NPP safety (Finnish contributions). The project has been performed in four phases during 2006-2010. This guidance document aims at describing, on the basis of the work performed throughout the project, issues to consider when defining, applying and interpreting probabilistic safety criteria. Thus, the basic aim of the document is to serve as a checklist and toolbox for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria. The document describes the terminology and concepts involved, the levels of criteria and relations between these, how to define a probabilistic safety criterion, how to apply a probabilistic safety criterion, on what to apply the probabilistic safety criterion, and how to interpret the result of the application. The document specifically deals with what makes up a probabilistic safety criterion, i.e., the risk metric, the frequency criterion, the PSA used for assessing compliance and the application procedure for the criterion. It also discusses the concept of subsidiary criteria, i.e., different levels of safety goals. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by safety authorities as a reference for risk-informed regulation. The outcome can have an impact on the requirements on PSA, e.g., regarding quality, scope, level of detail, and documentation. Finally, the results can be expected to support on-going activities concerning risk-informed applications. (Author)

Probabilistic programmable quantum processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buzek, V.; Ziman, M.; Hillery, M.

2004-01-01

We analyze how to improve performance of probabilistic programmable quantum processors. We show how the probability of success of the probabilistic processor can be enhanced by using the processor in loops. In addition, we show that an arbitrary SU(2) transformations of qubits can be encoded in program state of a universal programmable probabilistic quantum processor. The probability of success of this processor can be enhanced by a systematic correction of errors via conditional loops. Finally, we show that all our results can be generalized also for qudits. (Abstract Copyright [2004], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

National Youth Survey US: Wave I (NYS-1976)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset contains parent and youth data for the National Youth Survey. Youths and one of their parents or legal guardians were interviewed in early 1977 about...

National Youth Survey US: Wave VII (NYS-1987)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Youth data for the seventh wave of the National Youth Survey are contained in this collection. This research project, designed to gain a better understanding of both...

National Youth Survey US: Wave VI (NYS-1983)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Youth data for the sixth wave of the National Youth Survey are contained in this collection. This research project, which was designed to gain a better understanding...

PROBABILISTIC RELATIONAL MODELS OF COMPLETE IL-SEMIRINGS

OpenAIRE

Tsumagari, Norihiro

2012-01-01

This paper studies basic properties of probabilistic multirelations which are generalized the semantic domain of probabilistic systems and then provides two probabilistic models of complete IL-semirings using probabilistic multirelations. Also it is shown that these models need not be models of complete idempotentsemirings.

National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS) - NMVCCS XML Case Viewer

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Transportation — The National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVVCS) was a nationwide survey of crashes involving light passenger vehicles, with a focus on the factors related...

Probabilistic safety analysis vs probabilistic fracture mechanics -relation and necessary merging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, Fred

1997-01-01

A comparison is made between some general features of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in its standard form. We conclude that: Result from PSA is a numerically expressed level of confidence in the system based on the state of current knowledge. It is thus not any objective measure of risk. It is important to carefully define the precise nature of the probabilistic statement and relate it to a well defined situation. Standardisation of PFM methods is necessary. PFM seems to be the only way to obtain estimates of the pipe break probability. Service statistics are of doubtful value because of scarcity of data and statistical inhomogeneity. Collection of service data should be directed towards the occurrence of growing cracks

National Youth Survey US: Wave II (NYS-1977)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Youth data for the second wave of the National Youth Survey are contained in this data collection. The first wave was conducted in 1976. Youths were interviewed in...

National Youth Survey US: Wave III (NYS-1978)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Youth data for the third wave of the National Youth Survey are contained in this data collection, which includes data for youth interviewed in 1979 about events and...

75 FR 9277 - Proposed Information Collection (Nation-Wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys) Activity: Comment...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-01

... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS [OMB Control No. 2900-0712] Proposed Information Collection (Nation-Wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys) Activity: Comment Request AGENCY: Veterans Health Administration... use of other forms of information technology. Title: Nation-wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys, VA...

Sandia National Laboratories, California proposed CREATE facility environmental baseline survey.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Catechis, Christopher Spyros

2013-10-01

Sandia National Laboratories, Environmental Programs completed an environmental baseline survey (EBS) of 12.6 acres located at Sandia National Laboratories/California (SNL/CA) in support of the proposed Collaboration in Research and Engineering for Advanced Technology and Education (CREATE) Facility. The survey area is comprised of several parcels of land within SNL/CA, County of Alameda, California. The survey area is located within T 3S, R 2E, Section 13. The purpose of this EBS is to document the nature, magnitude, and extent of any environmental contamination of the property; identify potential environmental contamination liabilities associated with the property; develop sufficient information to assess the health and safety risks; and ensure adequate protection for human health and the environment related to a specific property.

The National Map Customer Requirements: Findings from Interviews and Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Sugarbaker, Larry; Coray, Kevin E.; Poore, Barbara

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to receive customer feedback and to understand data and information requirements for The National Map. This report provides results and findings from interviews and surveys and will guide policy and operations decisions about data and information requirements leading to the development of a 5-year strategic plan for the National Geospatial Program. These findings are based on feedback from approximately 2,200 customers between February and August 2008. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted more than 160 interviews with 200 individuals. The American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) and the International Map Trade Association (IMTA) surveyed their memberships and received feedback from over 400 members. The Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) received feedback from over 1,600 of its U.S.-based software users through an online survey sent to customers attending the ESRI International User Conference in the summer of 2008. The results of these surveys were shared with the USGS and have been included in this report.

On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reif, J.H.

1984-01-01

This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity

14th International Probabilistic Workshop

CERN Document Server

Taerwe, Luc; Proske, Dirk

2017-01-01

This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Probabilistic Workshop that was held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.

National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) N/P Values for Lakes – National Lake Assessment

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The National Aquatic Resource Survey (NARS) findings for nutrients in streams and lakes highlight that nutrient pollution is widespread across the United States and...

National Chemistry Teacher Safety Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Plohocki, Barbra A.

This study evaluated the status of secondary school instructional chemistry laboratory safety using a survey instrument which focused on Teacher background Information, Laboratory Safety Equipment, Facility Safety, General Safety, and a Safety Content Knowledge Survey. A fifty question survey instrument based on recent research and questions developed by the researcher was mailed to 500 secondary school chemistry teachers who participated in the 1993 one-week Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation Chemistry Institute conducted at Princeton University, New Jersey. The data received from 303 respondents was analyzed by t tests and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The level of significance for the study was set at ~\\ performance on the Safety Content Knowledge Survey and secondary school chemistry teachers who have had undergraduate and/or graduate safety training and those who have not had undergraduate and/or graduate safety training. Secondary school chemistry teachers who attended school district sponsored safety inservices did not score higher on the Safety Content Knowledge Survey than teachers who did not attend school district sponsored safety inservice sessions. The type of school district (urban, suburban, or rural) had no significant correlation to the type of laboratory safety equipment found in the instructional chemistry laboratory. The certification area (chemistry or other type of certificate which may or may not include chemistry) of the secondary school teacher had no significant correlation to the type of laboratory equipment found in the instructional chemistry laboratory. Overall, this study indicated a majority of secondary school chemistry teachers were interested in attending safety workshops applicable to chemistry safety. Throughout this research project, many teachers indicated they were not adequately instructed on the collegiate level in science safety and had to rely on common sense and self-study in their future teaching careers.

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, J.M.

1982-01-01

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture in structural and mechanical components are examined. The principles of fracture mechanics, material quality and inspection uncertainty are formulated into a conceptual and analytical framework for prediction of failure probability. The role of probabilistic fracture mechanics in a more global context of risk and optimization of decisions is illustrated. An example, where Monte Carlo simulation was used to implement a probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis, is discussed. (orig.)

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: the Seaside, Oregon Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, F. I.; Geist, E. L.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.

2004-12-01

A pilot study of Seaside, Oregon is underway, to develop methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments that can be incorporated into Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) developed by FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current NFIP guidelines for tsunami hazard assessment rely on the science, technology and methodologies developed in the 1970s; although generally regarded as groundbreaking and state-of-the-art for its time, this approach is now superseded by modern methods that reflect substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades. In particular, post-1990 technical advances include: improvements in tsunami source specification; improved tsunami inundation models; better computational grids by virtue of improved bathymetric and topographic databases; a larger database of long-term paleoseismic and paleotsunami records and short-term, historical earthquake and tsunami records that can be exploited to develop improved probabilistic methodologies; better understanding of earthquake recurrence and probability models. The NOAA-led U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), in partnership with FEMA, USGS, NSF and Emergency Management and Geotechnical agencies of the five Pacific States, incorporates these advances into site-specific tsunami hazard assessments for coastal communities in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington. NTHMP hazard assessment efforts currently focus on developing deterministic, "credible worst-case" scenarios that provide valuable guidance for hazard mitigation and emergency management. The NFIP focus, on the other hand, is on actuarial needs that require probabilistic hazard assessments such as those that characterize 100- and 500-year flooding events. There are clearly overlaps in NFIP and NTHMP objectives. NTHMP worst-case scenario assessments that include an estimated probability of occurrence could benefit the NFIP; NFIP probabilistic assessments of 100- and 500-yr

National survey of MRSA: Ireland, 1995.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Johnson, Z

1997-03-01

The objective of this survey was to obtain an indication of the size of the methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) problem in Ireland prior to introducing national MRSA control guidelines. A survey of all microbiology laboratories in Ireland was carried out over two weeks in Spring 1995. For patients from whom MRSA was isolated during the study period standard demographic and clinical data were requested and period prevalence\\/1000 discharges was calculated. All 45 microbiology laboratories surveyed responded. MRSA was isolated from 448 patients during the two-week period. The period prevalence of MRSA was 16.5\\/1000 discharges. Males aged > or = 65 had the highest rate (50\\/1000 discharges). Half of all isolates were from patients in surgical or medical wards, but 4% were from community-based sources such as GPs, nursing homes and hospices. Thirty-two percent of MRSA patients were infected rather than colonized. MRSA is clearly a significant problem in Ireland. While it is largely a hospital problem at present, the increasing trend towards day procedures and shorter hospital stay means that infection will increase in the community.

Present and future of probabilistic safety analysis of Juragua Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, J.; Rivero, J.J.

1993-01-01

This work present the main conditions of probabilistic safety analysis of Juragua Nuclear Power Plant, which includes the following aspects: Staff preparedness; Creation of ANCON code; Analysis activity; IAEA technical assistance project. The present situation of PSA National Project and its perspectives development are reported

OVERVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT OF P-CARES: PROBABILISTIC COMPUTER ANALYSIS FOR RAPID EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

NIE, J.; XU, J.; COSTANTINO, C.; THOMAS, V.

2007-01-01

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) undertook an effort to revise the CARES (Computer Analysis for Rapid Evaluation of Structures) program under the auspices of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The CARES program provided the NRC staff a capability to quickly check the validity and/or accuracy of the soil-structure interaction (SSI) models and associated data received from various applicants. The aim of the current revision was to implement various probabilistic simulation algorithms in CARES (referred hereinafter as P-CARES [1]) for performing the probabilistic site response and soil-structure interaction (SSI) analyses. This paper provides an overview of the development process of P-CARES, including the various probabilistic simulation techniques used to incorporate the effect of site soil uncertainties into the seismic site response and SSI analyses and an improved graphical user interface (GUI)

2012 national survey on bicyclist and pedestrian attitudes and behavior : traffic tech : technology transfer series

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-01

In 2012, NHTSA conducted a national telephone survey to obtain a status report on attitudes, knowledge, and behavior related to outdoor walking and bicycling. This study updates national telephone survey data collected by NHTSA in 2002. The survey ad...

A probabilistic assessment of health risks associated with short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Whitfield, R.G; Biller, W.F.; Jusko, M.J.; Keisler, J.M.

1996-06-01

The work described in this report is part of a larger risk assessment sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier efforts developed exposure-response relationships for acute health effects among populations engaged in heavy exertion. Those efforts also developed a probabilistic national ambient air quality standards exposure model and a general methodology for integrating probabilistic exposure-response relation- ships and exposure estimates to calculate overall risk results. Recently published data make it possible to model additional health endpoints (for exposure at moderate exertion), including hospital admissions. New air quality and exposure estimates for alternative national ambient air quality standards for ozone are combined with exposure-response models to produce the risk results for hospital admissions and acute health effects. Sample results explain the methodology and introduce risk output formats.

Probabilistic methods used in NUSS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, J.; Giuliani, P.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic considerations are used implicitly or explicitly in all technical areas. In the NUSS codes and guides the two areas of design and siting are those where more use is made of these concepts. A brief review of the relevant documents in these two areas is made in this paper. It covers the documents where either probabilistic considerations are implied or where probabilistic approaches are recommended in the evaluation of situations and of events. In the siting guides the review mainly covers the area of seismic hydrological and external man-made events analysis, as well as some aspects of meteorological extreme events analysis. Probabilistic methods are recommended in the design guides but they are not made a requirement. There are several reasons for this, mainly lack of reliable data and the absence of quantitative safety limits or goals against which to judge the design analysis. As far as practical, engineering judgement should be backed up by quantitative probabilistic analysis. Examples are given and the concept of design basis as used in NUSS design guides is explained. (author)

Global comparison of national individual food consumption surveys as a basis for health research and integration in national health surveillance programmes.

Science.gov (United States)

Huybrechts, Inge; Aglago, Elom K; Mullee, Amy; De Keyzer, Willem; Leclercq, Catherine; Allemand, Pauline; Balcerzak, Agnieszka; Zotor, Francis B; Gunter, Marc J

2017-11-01

Individual food consumption surveys (IFCS) are performed to evaluate compliance with food/nutrient intake requirements or exposure to potential harmful dietary contaminants/components. In this review, we inventoried methods and designs used in national IFCS and discussed the methodologies applied across countries. Literature searches were performed using fixed sets of search terms in different online databases. We identified IFCS in thirty-nine countries from six world continents. National IFCS systems are available in most of the high-income countries, while such surveys are scarce in low- and middle-income countries (e.g. Africa, Eastern Europe and several Asian countries). Few countries (n 9) have their national IFCS incorporated into national health and nutrition surveys, allowing the investigation of dietary-related disease outcomes. Of the integrated surveys, most have the advantage of being continuous/regular, contrary to other IFCS that are mostly erratic. This review serves as the basis to define gaps and needs in IFCS worldwide and assists in defining priorities for resource allocation. In addition, it can serve as a source of inspiration for countries that do not have an IFCS system in place yet and advocate for national IFCS to be incorporated into national health and nutrition surveys in order to create: (1) research opportunities for investigating diet-disease relationships and (2) a frame to plan and evaluate the effect of diet-related policies (e.g. promotion of local nutrient-rich foods) and of nutrition recommendations, such as food-based dietary guidelines. Countries that integrate their IFCS within their national health and nutrition survey can serve as proof-of-principle for other countries.

A national survey of cardiac rehabilitation services in New Zealand: 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Kira, Geoff; Doolan-Noble, Fiona; Humphreys, Grace; Williams, Gina; O'Shaughnessy, Helen; Devlin, Gerry

2016-05-27

Guidelines for cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programmes inform best practice. In Aotearoa NewZealand, little information exists about the structure and services provided by CR programmes and there is a poor understanding of how existing CR programmes are delivered with respect to evidence-based national guidelines. All 46 CR providers in New Zealand were invited to participate in a national survey in 2015. The survey sought information on the following: unit structure; referral processes; patient assessment; audit (including quality assurance activity); Phase 2 CR content; and support for special populations. Simple descriptive analysis of the responses was conducted, involving forming counts and percentages. Thirty-six distinct units completed the survey and 94% provided Phase 2. Assessment tools, Phase 2 educational components, and the methods of providing the exercise component varied. Most units audited their services, 25% audited their programme six-monthly or more frequently. Just over half of the units (56%) reported key performance indicators. The survey identified variations in delivery and content of CR in New Zealand, with poor understanding of the impact on patient outcomes. This is likely due to the absence of standardised audit practices and routine collection of key performance indicators on a national basis.

Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

2017-10-01

The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity - National Immunization Survey (Breastfeeding)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset includes breastfeeding data from the National Immunization Survey (NIS). This data is used for DNPAO's Data, Trends, and Maps database, which provides...

National Survey of the Education of Teachers. Bulletin, 1933, No. 10. Volume V: Special Survey Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Frazier, Benjamin W.; Betts, Gilbert L.; Greenleaf, Walter J.; Waples, Douglas; Dearborn, Ned H.; Carney, Mabel; Alexander, Thomas

1935-01-01

The Seventy-first Congress authorized a survey of the education of teachers on a Nation-wide scope, conducted during the last 3 years. After the work of the survey was organized it was apparent that only a limited number of studies could be undertaken with the time and funds available. It was decided, therefore, to cooperate whenever possible with…

Dietary Exposure Assessment of Danish Consumers to Dithiocarbamate Residues in Food: a Comparison of the Deterministic and Probabilistic Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Andersen, Jens Hinge; Petersen, Annette

2008-01-01

Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of the acute and chronic exposure of the Danish populations to dithiocarbamate residues were performed. The Monte Carlo Risk Assessment programme (MCRA 4.0) was used for the probabilistic risk assessment. Food consumption data were obtained from...... the nationwide dietary survey conducted in 2000-02. Residue data for 5721 samples from the monitoring programme conducted in the period 1998-2003 were used for dithiocarbamates, which had been determined as carbon disulphide. Contributions from 26 commodities were included in the calculations. Using...... the probabilistic approach, the daily acute intakes at the 99.9% percentile for adults and children were 11.2 and 28.2 mu g kg(-1) body weight day(-1), representing 5.6% and 14.1% of the ARfD for maneb, respectively. When comparing the point estimate approach with the probabilistic approach, the outcome...

The Jamaica asthma and allergies national prevalence survey: rationale and methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwards Nancy C

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Asthma is a significant public health problem in the Caribbean. Prevalence surveys using standardized measures of asthma provide valid prevalence estimates to facilitate regional and international comparisons and monitoring of trends. This paper describes methods used in the Jamaica Asthma and Allergies National Prevalence Survey, challenges associated with this survey and strategies used to overcome these challenges. Methods/Design An island wide, cross-sectional, community-based survey of asthma, asthma symptoms and allergies was done among adults and children using the European Community Respiratory Health Survey Questionnaire for adults and the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children. Stratified multi-stage cluster sampling was used to select 2, 163 adults aged 18 years and older and 2, 017 children aged 2-17 years for the survey. The Kish selection table was used to select one adult and one child per household. Data analysis accounted for sampling design and prevalence estimates were weighted to produce national estimates. Discussion The Jamaica Asthma and Allergies National Prevalence Survey is the first population- based survey in the Caribbean to determine the prevalence of asthma and allergies both in adults and children using standardized methods. With response rates exceeding 80% in both groups, this approach facilitated cost-effective gathering of high quality asthma prevalence data that will facilitate international and regional comparison and monitoring of asthma prevalence trends. Another unique feature of this study was the partnership with the Ministry of Health in Jamaica, which ensured the collection of data relevant for decision-making to facilitate the uptake of research evidence. The findings of this study will provide important data on the burden of asthma and allergies in Jamaica and contribute to evidence-informed planning of comprehensive asthma management and education programs.

A preliminary survey of the National Wetlands Inventory as mapped for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hampton, N.L.; Rope, R.C.; Glennon, J.M.; Moor, K.S.

1995-02-01

Approximately 135 areas within the boundaries of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) have been mapped as wetland habitat as part of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) National Wetlands Inventory (NWI). A preliminary survey of these wetlands was conducted to examine their general characteristics and status, to provide an estimation of relative ecological importance, to identify additional information needed to complete ecological characterization of important INEL wetlands, and to identify high priority wetland areas on the INEL. The purpose of the survey was to provide information to support the preparation of the Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ER ampersand WM) Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Information characterizing general vegetation, hydrology, wildlife use, and archaeology was collected at 105 sample sites on the INEL. Sites representing NWI palustrine, lacustrine, and riverine wetlands (including manmade), and areas unmapped or unclassified by the NWI were included in the sample. The field information was used to develop a preliminary ranking of relative ecological importance for each wetland visited during this survey. Survey limitations are identified

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2009-2010

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is a program of studies designed to assess the health and nutritional status of adults and children in...

SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payne, Suzette Jackson; Coppersmith, Ryan; Coppersmith, Kevin; Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian; Falero, Valentina Montaldo; Youngs, Robert

2016-01-01

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures for Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 study and included a Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) to provide the confident technical basis and mean-centered estimates of the ground motions. A new risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA was developed as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project. To develop and implement the new methodology, the SRA project elected to perform two SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs. The first was for the Fuel Manufacturing Facility (FMF), which is classified as a Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3 nuclear facility. The second was for the ATR Complex, which has facilities classified as SDC-4. The new methodology requires defensible estimates of ground motion levels (mean and full distribution of uncertainty) for its criteria and evaluation process. The INL SSHAC Level 1 PSHA demonstrates the use of the PPRP, evaluation and integration through utilization of a small team with multiple roles and responsibilities (four team members and one specialty contractor), and the feasibility of a short duration schedule (10 months). Additionally, a SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels for the Spent Fuel Handling Recapitalization Project (SFHP) process facility.

SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Payne, Suzette Jackson [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coppersmith, Ryan [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coppersmith, Kevin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Falero, Valentina Montaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Youngs, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures for Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 study and included a Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) to provide the confident technical basis and mean-centered estimates of the ground motions. A new risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA was developed as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project. To develop and implement the new methodology, the SRA project elected to perform two SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs. The first was for the Fuel Manufacturing Facility (FMF), which is classified as a Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3 nuclear facility. The second was for the ATR Complex, which has facilities classified as SDC-4. The new methodology requires defensible estimates of ground motion levels (mean and full distribution of uncertainty) for its criteria and evaluation process. The INL SSHAC Level 1 PSHA demonstrates the use of the PPRP, evaluation and integration through utilization of a small team with multiple roles and responsibilities (four team members and one specialty contractor), and the feasibility of a short duration schedule (10 months). Additionally, a SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels for the Spent Fuel Handling Recapitalization Project (SFHP) process facility.

National indoor radon survey in Filipino homes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dela Cruz, Fe M.; Garcia, Teofilo Y.; Palad, Lorna Jean H.; Cobar, Ma. Lucia C.; Duran, Emerenciana B.

2012-01-01

This paper presents the results of the first national survey of indoor radon concentrations in different types of Filipino houses throughout the Philippines. Measurements were carried out using 2,626 CR-39 alpha track detectors that were deployed in selected houses for a period of six months. Results of analyses showed that indoor radon concentration in Filipino houses ranged from 1.4 to 57.6 Bq/m 3 with a mean value of 21.4 ± 9.2 Bq/m 3 . This leads to an estimated annual average effective dose equivalent of 0.4 mSv. There are slight differences in the mean concentrations of radon in different types of houses, which ranged from 19.4 to 25.3 Bq/m 3 . Highest mean radon concentrations were observed in houses made of concrete with a mean radon value of 25.3 ± 10.1 Bq/m 3 . Radon concentrations in the houses surveyed were below the action limits of 200 Bq/m 3 set by the National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) and do not pose any hazard to the health of the occupants. (author)

Probabilistic broadcasting of mixed states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Lvjun; Li Lvzhou; Wu Lihua; Zou Xiangfu; Qiu Daowen

2009-01-01

It is well known that the non-broadcasting theorem proved by Barnum et al is a fundamental principle of quantum communication. As we are aware, optimal broadcasting (OB) is the only method to broadcast noncommuting mixed states approximately. In this paper, motivated by the probabilistic cloning of quantum states proposed by Duan and Guo, we propose a new way for broadcasting noncommuting mixed states-probabilistic broadcasting (PB), and we present a sufficient condition for PB of mixed states. To a certain extent, we generalize the probabilistic cloning theorem from pure states to mixed states, and in particular, we generalize the non-broadcasting theorem, since the case that commuting mixed states can be exactly broadcast can be thought of as a special instance of PB where the success ratio is 1. Moreover, we discuss probabilistic local broadcasting (PLB) of separable bipartite states

Probabilistic modeling of timber structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2007-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...

Survey and evaluation of inherent safety characteristics and passive safety systems for use in probabilistic safety analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wetzel, N.; Scharfe, A.

1998-01-01

The present report examines the possibilities and limits of a probabilistic safety analysis to evaluate passive safety systems and inherent safety characteristics. The inherent safety characteristics are based on physical principles, that together with the safety system lead to no damage. A probabilistic evaluation of the inherent safety characteristic is not made. An inventory of passive safety systems of accomplished nuclear power plant types in the Federal Republic of Germany was drawn up. The evaluation of the passive safety system in the analysis of the accomplished nuclear power plant types was examined. The analysis showed that the passive manner of working was always assumed to be successful. A probabilistic evaluation was not performed. The unavailability of the passive safety system was determined by the failure of active components which are necessary in order to activate the passive safety system. To evaluate the passive safety features in new concepts of nuclear power plants the AP600 from Westinghouse, the SBWR from General Electric and the SWR 600 from Siemens, were selected. Under these three reactor concepts, the SWR 600 is specially attractive because the safety features need no energy sources and instrumentation in this concept. First approaches for the assessment of the reliability of passively operating systems are summarized. Generally it can be established that the core melt frequency for the passive concepts AP600 and SBWR is advantageous in comparison to the probabilistic objectives from the European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR). Under the passive concepts is the SWR 600 particularly interesting. In this concept the passive systems need no energy sources and instrumentation, and has active operational systems and active safety equipment. Siemens argues that with this concept the frequency of a core melt will be two orders of magnitude lower than for the conventional reactors. (orig.) [de

Breastfeeding Support in Neonatal Intensive Care: A National Survey

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maastrup, Ragnhild; Bojesen, Susanne Nordby; Kronborg, Hanne

2012-01-01

Background: The incidence of breastfeeding of preterm infants is affected by the support provided at the hospital and in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). However, policies and guidelines promoting breastfeeding vary both nationally and internationally. Objectives: The aim of this survey...... was to describe breastfeeding support in Danish NICUs, where approximately 98% of mothers initiate lactation. Methods: A national survey of all 19 Danish NICUs was conducted in 2009. Four NICUs were at designated Baby-Friendly hospitals, and 5 had a lactation consultant. In all NICUs, it was possible for some...... parents to stay overnight; 2 units had short restrictions on parents' presence. Five NICUs had integrated postpartum care for mothers. Breastfeeding policies, written guidelines, and systematic breastfeeding training for the staff were common in most NICUs. Seventeen NICUs recommended starting breast milk...

Structural reliability codes for probabilistic design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

1997-01-01

probabilistic code format has not only strong influence on the formal reliability measure, but also on the formal cost of failure to be associated if a design made to the target reliability level is considered to be optimal. In fact, the formal cost of failure can be different by several orders of size for two...... different, but by and large equally justifiable probabilistic code formats. Thus, the consequence is that a code format based on decision theoretical concepts and formulated as an extension of a probabilistic code format must specify formal values to be used as costs of failure. A principle of prudence...... is suggested for guiding the choice of the reference probabilistic code format for constant reliability. In the author's opinion there is an urgent need for establishing a standard probabilistic reliability code. This paper presents some considerations that may be debatable, but nevertheless point...

Potential theory for stationary Schrödinger operators: a survey of results obtained with non-probabilistic methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Bramanti

1992-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper we deal with a uniformly elliptic operator of the kind: Lu  Au + Vu, where the principal part A is in divergence form, and V is a function assumed in a “Kato class”. This operator has been studied in different contexts, especially using probabilistic techniques. The aim of the present work is to give a unified and simplified presentation of the results obtained with non probabilistic methods for the operator L on a bounded Lipschitz domain. These results regard: continuity of the solutions of Lu=0; Harnack inequality; estimates on the Green's function and L-harmonic measure; boundary behavior of positive solutions of Lu=0, in particular a “Fatou's theorem”.

Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis

2010-01-01

This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the

The Design and Implementation of the 2016 National Survey of Children's Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghandour, Reem M; Jones, Jessica R; Lebrun-Harris, Lydie A; Minnaert, Jessica; Blumberg, Stephen J; Fields, Jason; Bethell, Christina; Kogan, Michael D

2018-05-09

Introduction Since 2001, the Health Resources and Services Administration's Maternal and Child Health Bureau (HRSA MCHB) has funded and directed the National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) and the National Survey of Children with Special Health Care Needs (NS-CSHCN), unique sources of national and state-level data on child health and health care. Between 2012 and 2015, HRSA MCHB redesigned the surveys, combining content into a single survey, and shifting from a periodic interviewer-assisted telephone survey to an annual self-administered web/paper-based survey utilizing an address-based sampling frame. Methods The U.S. Census Bureau fielded the redesigned NSCH using a random sample of addresses drawn from the Census Master Address File, supplemented with a unique administrative flag to identify households most likely to include children. Data were collected June 2016-February 2017 using a multi-mode design, encouraging web-based responses while allowing for paper mail-in responses. A parent/caregiver knowledgeable about the child's health completed an age-appropriate questionnaire. Experiments on incentives, branding, and contact strategies were conducted. Results Data were released in September 2017. The final sample size was 50,212 children; the overall weighted response rate was 40.7%. Comparison of 2016 estimates to those from previous survey iterations are not appropriate due to sampling and mode changes. Discussion The NSCH remains an invaluable data source for key measures of child health and attendant health care system, family, and community factors. The redesigned survey extended the utility of this resource while seeking a balance between previous strengths and innovations now possible.

Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas C. Edwards; D. Richard Cutler; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Linda Geiser; Gretchen G. Moisen

2006-01-01

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by...

National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in France 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaaijk, Paul; Durand, Yvonnick

2015-06-01

The objective of Task 1 of the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Program is to promote and facilitate the exchange and dissemination of information on the technical, economic, environmental and social aspects of PV power systems. Task 1 activities support the broader PVPS objectives: to contribute to cost reduction of PV power applications, to increase awareness of the potential and value of PV power systems, to foster the removal of both technical and non-technical barriers and to enhance technology co-operation. An important deliverable of Task 1 is the annual Trends in photovoltaic applications report. In parallel, National Survey Reports are produced annually by each Task 1 participant. The PVPS web site www.iea-pvps.org also plays an important role in disseminating information arising from the program, including national information. This document is the French National Survey Report on photovoltaics for the year 2014

National Survey Report of Photovoltaic Power Applications in France 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaaijk, Paul; Durand, Yvonnick

2016-06-01

The objective of Task 1 of the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Program is to promote and facilitate the exchange and dissemination of information on the technical, economic, environmental and social aspects of PV power systems. Task 1 activities support the broader PVPS objectives: to contribute to cost reduction of PV power applications, to increase awareness of the potential and value of PV power systems, to foster the removal of both technical and non-technical barriers and to enhance technology co-operation. An important deliverable of Task 1 is the annual report Trends in Photovoltaic Applications. In parallel, National Survey Reports are produced annually by each Task 1 participant. The PVPS web site www.iea-pvps.org also plays an important role in disseminating information arising from the program, including national information. This document is the French National Survey Report on photovoltaics for the year 2015

Human impact surveys in Mount Rainier National Park : past, present, and future

Science.gov (United States)

Regina M. Rochefort; Darin D. Swinney

2000-01-01

Three survey methods were utilized to describe human impacts in one wilderness management zone of Mount Rainier National Park: wilderness impact cards, social trail and campsite surveys, and condition class surveys. Results were compared with respect to assessment of wilderness condition and ecological integrity. Qualitative wilderness impact cards provided location of...

Probabilistic finite elements for fracture mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Besterfield, Glen

1988-01-01

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) is developed for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). A finite element which has the near crack-tip singular strain embedded in the element is used. Probabilistic distributions, such as expectation, covariance and correlation stress intensity factors, are calculated for random load, random material and random crack length. The method is computationally quite efficient and can be expected to determine the probability of fracture or reliability.

National Survey of Veterans, Active Duty Service Members, Demobilized National Guard and Reserve Members, Family Members, and Surviving Spouses

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — The 2010 National Survey of Veterans (NSV) is the sixth in a series of comprehensive nationwide surveys designed to help the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) plan...

Probabilistic Mu-Calculus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Xue, Bingtian

2016-01-01

We introduce a version of the probabilistic µ-calculus (PMC) built on top of a probabilistic modal logic that allows encoding n-ary inequational conditions on transition probabilities. PMC extends previously studied calculi and we prove that, despite its expressiveness, it enjoys a series of good...... metaproperties. Firstly, we prove the decidability of satisfiability checking by establishing the small model property. An algorithm for deciding the satisfiability problem is developed. As a second major result, we provide a complete axiomatization for the alternation-free fragment of PMC. The completeness proof...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Three Month Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a series of thirteen probabilistic three-month precipitation outlooks for the United States. CPC issues the thirteen...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Three Month Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a series of thirteen probabilistic three-month temperature outlooks for the United States. CPC issues the thirteen...

Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims

Science.gov (United States)

Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.

Probabilistic, sediment-geochemical parameterisation of the groundwater compartment of the Netherlands for spatially distributed, reactive transport modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, Gijs; Gunnink, Jan; van Vliet, Marielle; Goldberg, Tanya; Griffioen, Jasper

2017-04-01

Pollution of groundwater aquifers with contaminants as nitrate is a common problem. Reactive transport models are useful to predict the fate of such contaminants and to characterise the efficiency of mitigating or preventive measures. Parameterisation of a groundwater transport model on reaction capacity is a necessary step during building the model. Two Dutch, national programs are combined to establish a methodology for building a probabilistic model on reaction capacity of the groundwater compartment at the national scale: the Geological Survey program and the NHI Netherlands Hydrological Instrument program. Reaction capacity is considered as a series of geochemical characteristics that control acid/base condition, redox condition and sorption capacity. Five primary reaction capacity variables are characterised: 1. pyrite, 2. non-pyrite, reactive iron (oxides, siderite and glauconite), 3. clay fraction, 4. organic matter and 5. Ca-carbonate. Important reaction capacity variables that are determined by more than one solid compound are also deduced: 1. potential reduction capacity (PRC) by pyrite and organic matter, 2. cation-exchange capacity (CEC) by organic matter and clay content, 3. carbonate buffering upon pyrite oxidation (CPBO) by carbonate and pyrite. Statistical properties of these variables are established based on c. 16,000 sediment geochemical analyses. The first tens of meters are characterised based on 25 regions using combinations of lithological class and geological formation as strata. Because of both less data and more geochemical uniformity, the deeper subsurface is characterised in a similar way based on 3 regions. The statistical data is used as input in an algoritm that probabilistically calculates the reaction capacity per grid cell. First, the cumulative frequency distribution (cfd) functions are calculated from the statistical data for the geochemical strata. Second, all voxel cells are classified into the geochemical strata. Third, the

A survey of national and multi-national registries and cohort studies in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: Challenges and opportunities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beukelman, T. (Timothy); J. Anink (Janneke); Berntson, L. (Lillemor); Duffy, C. (Ciaran); J.A. Ellis; Glerup, M. (Mia); Guzman, J. (Jaime); G. Horneff (Gerd); Kearsley-Fleet, L. (Lianne); Klein, A. (Ariane); Klotsche, J. (Jens); Magnusson, B. (Bo); K. Minden (Kirsten); Munro, J.E. (Jane E.); Niewerth, M. (Martina); Nordal, E. (Ellen); N. Ruperto (Nicolino); Santos, M.J. (Maria Jose); Schanberg, L.E. (Laura E.); W. Thomson (Wendy); L.W.A. van Suijlekom-Smit (Lisette); N.M. Wulffraat (Nico); Hyrich, K. (Kimme)

2017-01-01

textabstractBackground: To characterize the existing national and multi-national registries and cohort studies in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and identify differences as well as areas of potential future collaboration. Methods: We surveyed investigators from North America, Europe, and

Probabilistic prediction of expected ground condition and construction time and costs in road tunnels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mahmoodzadeh

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Ground condition and construction (excavation and support time and costs are the key factors in decision-making during planning and design phases of a tunnel project. An innovative methodology for probabilistic estimation of ground condition and construction time and costs is proposed, which is an integration of the ground prediction approach based on Markov process, and the time and cost variance analysis based on Monte-Carlo (MC simulation. The former provides the probabilistic description of ground classification along tunnel alignment according to the geological information revealed from geological profile and boreholes. The latter provides the probabilistic description of the expected construction time and costs for each operation according to the survey feedbacks from experts. Then an engineering application to Hamro tunnel is presented to demonstrate how the ground condition and the construction time and costs are estimated in a probabilistic way. In most items, in order to estimate the data needed for this methodology, a number of questionnaires are distributed among the tunneling experts and finally the mean values of the respondents are applied. These facilitate both the owners and the contractors to be aware of the risk that they should carry before construction, and are useful for both tendering and bidding.

Compression of Probabilistic XML documents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veldman, Irma

2009-01-01

Probabilistic XML (PXML) files resulting from data integration can become extremely large, which is undesired. For XML there are several techniques available to compress the document and since probabilistic XML is in fact (a special form of) XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In

Mortality patterns in Vietnam, 2006: Findings from a national verbal autopsy survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adair Timothy

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Accurate nationally representative statistics on total and cause-specific mortality in Vietnam are lacking due to incomplete capture in government reporting systems. This paper presents total and cause-specific mortality results from a national verbal autopsy survey conducted first time in Vietnam in conjunction with the annual population change survey and discusses methodological and logistical challenges associated with the implementation of a nation-wide assessment of mortality based on surveys. Verbal autopsy interviews, using the WHO standard questionnaire, were conducted with close relatives of the 6798 deaths identified in the 2007 population change survey in Vietnam. Data collectors were health staff recruited from the commune health station who undertook 3-day intensive training on VA interview. The Preston-Coale method assessed the level of completeness of mortality reporting from the population change survey. The number of deaths in each age-sex grouping is inflated according to the estimate of completeness to produce an adjusted number of deaths. Underlying causes of death were aggregated to the International Classification of Diseases Mortality Tabulation List 1. Leading causes of death were tabulated by sex for three broad age groups: 0-14 years; 15-59 years; and 60 years and above. Findings Completeness of mortality reporting was 69% for males and 54% for females with substantial regional variation. The use of VA has resulted in 10% of deaths being classified to ill-defined among males, and 15% among females. More ill-defined deaths were reported among the 60 year or above age group. Incomplete death reporting, wide geographical dispersal of deaths, extensive travel between households, and substantial variation in local responses to VA interviews challenged the implementation of a national mortality and cause of death assessment based on surveys. Conclusions Verbal autopsy can be a viable tool to identify cause

Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database for White Sands National Monument, New Mexico

Data.gov (United States)

Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This data set is a digital soil survey and generally is the most detailed level of soil geographic data developed by the National Cooperative Soil Survey. The...

The Terrestrial Investigation Model: A probabilistic risk assessment model for birds exposed to pesticides

Science.gov (United States)

One of the major recommendations of the National Academy of Science to the USEPA, NMFS and USFWS was to utilize probabilistic methods when assessing the risks of pesticides to federally listed endangered and threatened species. The Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM, version 3....

A survey of national and multi-national registries and cohort studies in juvenile idiopathic arthritis : challenges and opportunities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beukelman, Timothy; Anink, Janneke; Berntson, Lillemor; Duffy, Ciaran; Ellis, Justine A; Glerup, Mia; Guzman, Jaime; Horneff, Gerd; Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne; Klein, Ariane; Klotsche, Jens; Magnusson, Bo; Minden, Kirsten; Munro, Jane E; Niewerth, Martina; Nordal, Ellen; Ruperto, Nicolino; Santos, Maria Jose; Schanberg, Laura E; Thomson, Wendy; van Suijlekom-Smit, Lisette; Wulffraat, Nico; Hyrich, Kimme

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: To characterize the existing national and multi-national registries and cohort studies in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and identify differences as well as areas of potential future collaboration. METHODS: We surveyed investigators from North America, Europe, and Australia about

Probabilistic Infinite Secret Sharing

OpenAIRE

Csirmaz, László

2013-01-01

The study of probabilistic secret sharing schemes using arbitrary probability spaces and possibly infinite number of participants lets us investigate abstract properties of such schemes. It highlights important properties, explains why certain definitions work better than others, connects this topic to other branches of mathematics, and might yield new design paradigms. A probabilistic secret sharing scheme is a joint probability distribution of the shares and the secret together with a colle...

Breastfeeding and maternal employment: results from three national nutritional surveys in Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera-Pasquel, Marta; Escobar-Zaragoza, Leticia; González de Cosío, Teresita

2015-05-01

To evaluate the association between maternal employment and breastfeeding (both duration and status) in Mexican mothers using data from three National Health and Nutrition Surveys conducted in 1999, 2006 and 2012. We analyzed data from the 1999 National Nutrition Survey, the 2006 National Nutrition and Health Survey, and the 2012 National Nutrition and Health Survey (NNS-1999, NHNS-2006 and NHNS-2012) on 5,385 mothers aged 12-49 years, with infants under 1 year. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between breastfeeding and maternal employment adjusted for maternal and infant's socio-demographic covariates. Maternal formal employment was negatively associated with breastfeeding in Mexican mothers with infants under 1 year. Formally employed mothers were 20 % less likely to breastfeed compared to non-formally employed mothers and 27 % less likely to breastfeed compared to unemployed mothers. Difference in median duration of breastfeeding between formally employed and unemployed mothers was 5.7 months for NNS-1999, 4.7 months for NNHS-2006 and 6.7 months for NNHS-2012 respectively (p Maternal employment has been negatively associated with breastfeeding in Mexican mothers of <1 year infants at least for the last 15 years. For Mexicans involved in policy design, implementation or modification, these data might offer robust evidence on this negative association, and can be used confidently as basis for conceiving a more just legislation for working lactating women.

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, Illinois

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-10-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), conducted September 14 through 25, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Individual participants for the Survey team are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with Fermilab. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations performed at Fermilab, and interviews with site personnel. 110 refs., 26 figs., 41 tabs

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, Illinois

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-10-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), conducted September 14 through 25, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Individual participants for the Survey team are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with Fermilab. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations performed at Fermilab, and interviews with site personnel. 110 refs., 26 figs., 41 tabs.

Technical Report and Data File User's Manual for the 1992 National Adult Literacy Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirsch, Irwin; Yamamoto, Kentaro; Norris, Norma; Rock, Donald; Jungeblut, Ann; O'Reilly, Patricia; Berlin, Martha; Mohadjer, Leyla; Waksberg, Joseph; Goksel, Huseyin; Burke, John; Rieger, Susan; Green, James; Klein, Merle; Campbell, Anne; Jenkins, Lynn; Kolstad, Andrew; Mosenthal, Peter; Baldi, Stephane

Chapter 1 of this report and user's manual describes design and implementation of the 1992 National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS). Chapter 2 reviews stages of sampling for national and state survey components; presents weighted and unweighted response rates for the household component; and describes non-incentive and prison sample designs. Chapter…

Traffic Tech : National Telephone Survey on Distracted Driving Attitudes and Behaviors - 2015

Science.gov (United States)

2018-03-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) conducted its third national telephone survey of distracted driving to monitor the public's attitudes, knowledge, and self-reported behavior about cell phone use and texting while driving, an...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) One Month Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a probabilistic one-month precipitation outlook for the United States twice a month. CPC issues an initial monthly outlook...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) One Month Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a probabilistic one-month temperature outlook for the United States twice a month. CPC issues an initial monthly outlook...

Probabilistic brains: knowns and unknowns

Science.gov (United States)

Pouget, Alexandre; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ma, Wei Ji; Latham, Peter E

2015-01-01

There is strong behavioral and physiological evidence that the brain both represents probability distributions and performs probabilistic inference. Computational neuroscientists have started to shed light on how these probabilistic representations and computations might be implemented in neural circuits. One particularly appealing aspect of these theories is their generality: they can be used to model a wide range of tasks, from sensory processing to high-level cognition. To date, however, these theories have only been applied to very simple tasks. Here we discuss the challenges that will emerge as researchers start focusing their efforts on real-life computations, with a focus on probabilistic learning, structural learning and approximate inference. PMID:23955561

Probabilistic simple sticker systems

Science.gov (United States)

Selvarajoo, Mathuri; Heng, Fong Wan; Sarmin, Nor Haniza; Turaev, Sherzod

2017-04-01

A model for DNA computing using the recombination behavior of DNA molecules, known as a sticker system, was introduced by by L. Kari, G. Paun, G. Rozenberg, A. Salomaa, and S. Yu in the paper entitled DNA computing, sticker systems and universality from the journal of Acta Informatica vol. 35, pp. 401-420 in the year 1998. A sticker system uses the Watson-Crick complementary feature of DNA molecules: starting from the incomplete double stranded sequences, and iteratively using sticking operations until a complete double stranded sequence is obtained. It is known that sticker systems with finite sets of axioms and sticker rules generate only regular languages. Hence, different types of restrictions have been considered to increase the computational power of sticker systems. Recently, a variant of restricted sticker systems, called probabilistic sticker systems, has been introduced [4]. In this variant, the probabilities are initially associated with the axioms, and the probability of a generated string is computed by multiplying the probabilities of all occurrences of the initial strings in the computation of the string. Strings for the language are selected according to some probabilistic requirements. In this paper, we study fundamental properties of probabilistic simple sticker systems. We prove that the probabilistic enhancement increases the computational power of simple sticker systems.

The Danish National Health Survey 2010. Study design and respondent characteristics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Anne Illemann; Ekholm, Ola; Glümer, Charlotte

2012-01-01

In 2010 the five Danish regions and the National Institute of Public Health at the University of Southern Denmark conducted a national representative health survey among the adult population in Denmark. This paper describes the study design and the sample and study population as well as the conte...

National Student Feedback Surveys in Distance Education: An Investigation at the UK Open University

Science.gov (United States)

Ashby, Alison; Richardson, John T. E.; Woodley, Alan

2011-01-01

National student feedback surveys are administered in a number of countries, and several of these encompass both campus-based and distance learning students. The UK Open University achieves a high ranking in the annual National Student Survey (NSS), but there are some anomalies in the results. The NSS questionnaire was administered to three…

Probabilistic numerical discrimination in mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkay, Dilara; Çavdaroğlu, Bilgehan; Balcı, Fuat

2016-03-01

Previous studies showed that both human and non-human animals can discriminate between different quantities (i.e., time intervals, numerosities) with a limited level of precision due to their endogenous/representational uncertainty. In addition, other studies have shown that subjects can modulate their temporal categorization responses adaptively by incorporating information gathered regarding probabilistic contingencies into their time-based decisions. Despite the psychophysical similarities between the interval timing and nonverbal counting functions, the sensitivity of count-based decisions to probabilistic information remains an unanswered question. In the current study, we investigated whether exogenous probabilistic information can be integrated into numerosity-based judgments by mice. In the task employed in this study, reward was presented either after few (i.e., 10) or many (i.e., 20) lever presses, the last of which had to be emitted on the lever associated with the corresponding trial type. In order to investigate the effect of probabilistic information on performance in this task, we manipulated the relative frequency of different trial types across different experimental conditions. We evaluated the behavioral performance of the animals under models that differed in terms of their assumptions regarding the cost of responding (e.g., logarithmically increasing vs. no response cost). Our results showed for the first time that mice could adaptively modulate their count-based decisions based on the experienced probabilistic contingencies in directions predicted by optimality.

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

2010-01-01

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Probabilistic Role Models and the Guarded Fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

Probabilistic role models and the guarded fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2006-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin

2015-01-01

Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics

Probabilistic Programming (Invited Talk)

OpenAIRE

Yang, Hongseok

2017-01-01

Probabilistic programming refers to the idea of using standard programming constructs for specifying probabilistic models from machine learning and statistics, and employing generic inference algorithms for answering various queries on these models, such as posterior inference and estimation of model evidence. Although this idea itself is not new and was, in fact, explored by several programming-language and statistics researchers in the early 2000, it is only in the last few years that proba...

Finding the State Story in the National Lake Survey Data with an Excel Exploratory Tool

Science.gov (United States)

The National Lakes Assessment (NLA) surveyed over 1200 U.S. lakes in the summer of 2007, evaluating lake quality based on water quality, physical habitat, and indicators of biological and recreational condition. An upcoming national report will summarize survey results primarily ...

Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

2017-01-01

A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...... with deterministic phase and those with probabilistic phase. A case study performed on a string of ten 3MW, Type-IV wind turbines implemented in PSCAD was used to verify the probabilistic SD harmonic model. The probabilistic SD harmonic model can be employed in the planning phase of WPP projects to assess harmonic...

The Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey: The First National Survey of State Health Agency Employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Sellers, Katie; Leider, Jonathon P; Harper, Elizabeth; Castrucci, Brian C; Bharthapudi, Kiran; Liss-Levinson, Rivka; Jarris, Paul E; Hunter, Edward L

2015-01-01

Public health practitioners, policy makers, and researchers alike have called for more data on individual worker's perceptions about workplace environment, job satisfaction, and training needs for a quarter of a century. The Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey (PH WINS) was created to answer that call. Characterize key components of the public health workforce, including demographics, workplace environment, perceptions about national trends, and perceived training needs. A nationally representative survey of central office employees at state health agencies (SHAs) was conducted in 2014. Approximately 25,000 e-mail invitations to a Web-based survey were sent out to public health staff in 37 states, based on a stratified sampling approach. Balanced repeated replication weights were used to account for the complex sampling design. A total of 10,246 permanently employed SHA central office employees participated in PH WINS (46% response rate). Perceptions about training needs; workplace environment and job satisfaction; national initiatives and trends; and demographics. Although the majority of staff said they were somewhat or very satisfied with their job (79%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 78-80), as well as their organization (65%; 95% CI, 64-66), more than 42% (95% CI, 41-43) were considering leaving their organization in the next year or retiring before 2020; 4% of those were considering leaving for another job elsewhere in governmental public health. The majority of public health staff at SHA central offices are female (72%; 95% CI, 71-73), non-Hispanic white (70%; 95% CI, 69-71), and older than 40 years (73%; 95% CI, 72-74). The greatest training needs include influencing policy development, preparing a budget, and training related to the social determinants of health. PH WINS represents the first nationally representative survey of SHA employees. It holds significant potential to help answer previously unaddressed questions in public health

Topics in Probabilistic Judgment Aggregation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guanchun

2011-01-01

This dissertation is a compilation of several studies that are united by their relevance to probabilistic judgment aggregation. In the face of complex and uncertain events, panels of judges are frequently consulted to provide probabilistic forecasts, and aggregation of such estimates in groups often yield better results than could have been made…

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy's (DOE) Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), conducted March 29, 1987 through April 17, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Individual team components are outside experts being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with the LANL. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. The on-site phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations carried on at the LANL, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the LANL Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the Survey for the LANL. 65 refs., 68 figs., 73 tabs

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-01-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy's (DOE) Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), conducted March 29, 1987 through April 17, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Individual team components are outside experts being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with the LANL. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. The on-site phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations carried on at the LANL, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the LANL Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the Survey for the LANL. 65 refs., 68 figs., 73 tabs.

A logic for inductive probabilistic reasoning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2005-01-01

Inductive probabilistic reasoning is understood as the application of inference patterns that use statistical background information to assign (subjective) probabilities to single events. The simplest such inference pattern is direct inference: from '70% of As are Bs" and "a is an A" infer...... that a is a B with probability 0.7. Direct inference is generalized by Jeffrey's rule and the principle of cross-entropy minimization. To adequately formalize inductive probabilistic reasoning is an interesting topic for artificial intelligence, as an autonomous system acting in a complex environment may have...... to base its actions on a probabilistic model of its environment, and the probabilities needed to form this model can often be obtained by combining statistical background information with particular observations made, i.e., by inductive probabilistic reasoning. In this paper a formal framework...

A convergence theory for probabilistic metric spaces | Jäger ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We develop a theory of probabilistic convergence spaces based on Tardiff's neighbourhood systems for probabilistic metric spaces. We show that the resulting category is a topological universe and we characterize a subcategory that is isomorphic to the category of probabilistic metric spaces. Keywords: Probabilistic metric ...

Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework

OpenAIRE

Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo

2011-01-01

The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2007)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2004)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2013)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2010)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2014)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2012)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2003)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2006)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2000)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2002)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2008)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2009)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2005)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-2011)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

Teens, Health and Technology: A National Survey

OpenAIRE

Ellen Wartella; Vicky Rideout; Heather Montague; Leanne Beaudoin-Ryan; Alexis Lauricella

2016-01-01

In the age of digital technology, as teens seem to be constantly connected online, via social media, and through mobile applications, it is no surprise that they increasingly turn to digital media to answer their health questions. This study is the first of its kind to survey a large, nationally-representative sample of teens to investigate how they use the newest digital technologies, including mobile apps, social networking sites, electronic gaming and wearable devices, to explore health...

Findings from the 2013 NZCER Primary and Intermediate Schools National Survey

Science.gov (United States)

New Zealand Council for Educational Research, 2014

2014-01-01

The New Zealand Council for Educational Research (NZCER) primary and intermediate schools national survey was carried out in July-August 2013. NZCER questioned principals, teachers and trustees at a representative sample of schools, and sought the views of a random sample of 1 in 4 parents in 36 of these schools. In all, the survey gathered data…

A Danish survey of spinal cord stimulation baseline data: First results from a national neuromodulation database

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meier, Kaare; Scherer, Christian; Rosenlund, Christina

A Danish survey of spinal cord stimulation baseline data: First results from a national neuromodulation database......A Danish survey of spinal cord stimulation baseline data: First results from a national neuromodulation database...

Probabilistic studies of accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villemeur, A.; Berger, J.P.

1986-01-01

For several years, Electricite de France has carried out probabilistic assessment of accident sequences for nuclear power plants. In the framework of this program many methods were developed. As the interest in these studies was increasing and as adapted methods were developed, Electricite de France has undertaken a probabilistic safety assessment of a nuclear power plant [fr

Probabilistic safety assessment for instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants. A literature survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, Lixuan; Jiang, Jin

2003-01-01

Deregulation in electricity market will create a great deal of challenges for Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). To stay competitive, NPP will need to find new ways to reduce their operation costs. In NPP, Instrumentation and Control (I and C) systems play an important role in reducing the cost of producing electricity while maintaining and/or enhancing safety. Therefore, it is extremely important that one should manage the I and C systems more efficiently and economically. Meanwhile, obsolescence problem associated with I and C systems encouraged the usage of advanced digital techniques in I and C systems. Thus, new methodologies are needed to analyze the reliability and determine the maintenance strategy for the digital I and C systems. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has been probed to be a promising method to deal with this issue. This paper provides a literature survey on the development of digital I and C systems in NPP, followed by a detailed review of PSA including its benefits, limitations and the future direction of its development. Most importantly, potential applications of PSA in various aspects of I and C systems are brought into perspective throughout the paper. Furthermore, the applicability of PSA in the regulation of safety-related I and C systems is demonstrated. Detailed information on PSA applications in 1) the resource allocation for I and C systems: 2) the determination of surveillance testing strategies; and 3) I and C system designs, is provided. (author)

Convex sets in probabilistic normed spaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aghajani, Asadollah; Nourouzi, Kourosh

2008-01-01

In this paper we obtain some results on convexity in a probabilistic normed space. We also investigate the concept of CSN-closedness and CSN-compactness in a probabilistic normed space and generalize the corresponding results of normed spaces

Probabilistic finite elements

Science.gov (United States)

Belytschko, Ted; Wing, Kam Liu

1987-01-01

In the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM), finite element methods have been efficiently combined with second-order perturbation techniques to provide an effective method for informing the designer of the range of response which is likely in a given problem. The designer must provide as input the statistical character of the input variables, such as yield strength, load magnitude, and Young's modulus, by specifying their mean values and their variances. The output then consists of the mean response and the variance in the response. Thus the designer is given a much broader picture of the predicted performance than with simply a single response curve. These methods are applicable to a wide class of problems, provided that the scale of randomness is not too large and the probabilistic density functions possess decaying tails. By incorporating the computational techniques we have developed in the past 3 years for efficiency, the probabilistic finite element methods are capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. Sample results for an elastic-plastic ten-bar structure and an elastic-plastic plane continuum with a circular hole subject to cyclic loadings with the yield stress on the random field are given.

Probabilistic reasoning with graphical security models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kordy, Barbara; Pouly, Marc; Schweitzer, Patrick

This work provides a computational framework for meaningful probabilistic evaluation of attack–defense scenarios involving dependent actions. We combine the graphical security modeling technique of attack–defense trees with probabilistic information expressed in terms of Bayesian networks. In order

Tiger in Focus--A National Survey of ICT in Estonian Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Toots, Anu; Laanpere, Mart

2004-01-01

Estonia has not participated in international studies of ICT in education, nor have there been any similar studies at the national level up until the year 2000. The first survey of ICT in Estonian schools was conducted after completion of the national school computerization programme called Tiger Leap. This paper focuses on the targeted responses…

Consideration of aging in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Titina, B.; Cepin, M.

2007-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment is a standardised tool for assessment of safety of nuclear power plants. It is a complement to the safety analyses. Standard probabilistic models of safety equipment assume component failure rate as a constant. Ageing of systems, structures and components can theoretically be included in new age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment, which generally causes the failure rate to be a function of age. New age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment models, which offer explicit calculation of the ageing effects, are developed. Several groups of components are considered which require their unique models: e.g. operating components e.g. stand-by components. The developed models on the component level are inserted into the models of the probabilistic safety assessment in order that the ageing effects are evaluated for complete systems. The preliminary results show that the lack of necessary data for consideration of ageing causes highly uncertain models and consequently the results. (author)

Radiotherapy for Graves' orbitopathy: results of a national survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heyd, R.; Zamboglou, N.; Heinrich Seegenschmiedt, M.; Strassmann, G.; Micke, O.; Makoski, H.B.

2003-01-01

Background: Graves' orbitopathy (GO) is a widely accepted indication for radiation therapy (RT). In conjunction with the German Cooperative Group on Radiotherapy for Benign Diseases (GCG-BD), a national survey was conducted in order to assess whether or not there is a consensus on the indication for RT and various treatment factors which were studied. Material and Methods: A questionnaire was circulated to 190 RT institutions to obtain relevant data concerning the patients' workload, stage-dependent indication, and diagnostic procedures, which were considered to be necessary. Further questions addressed details on radiation technique and dose-fractionation schedules, the combined use of corticoids, and salvage RT after previous treatment failure following RT. Results: With a response rate of 152/190 (80%), the survey is nationally representative. Based on the case workload, an estimated annual number of 1,600 GO cases are treated in German radiotherapy departments. With an 88% consensus, stages II-V are the typical indications. 85% considered imaging studies necessary for indication and only 48% for laboratory tests. 76% of the institutions used total doses in the range of 15-20 Gy, and conventional fractionation was most common (57%). 82% used a face mask fixation and 67% CT-based treatment planning. Approximately 50% would prescribe salvage RT, and total doses in the range of 20-40 Gy were considered to be acceptable. Conclusions: The survey revealed a consensus concerning most of the factors studied. We recommend to review the patterns of care for RT of other entities of benign diseases and to implement a quality assurance program both on national and international levels. (orig.)

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Branching bisimulation congruence for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Aldini, A.; Baier, C.

2008-01-01

The notion of branching bisimulation for the alternating model of probabilistic systems is not a congruence with respect to parallel composition. In this paper we first define another branching bisimulation in the more general model allowing consecutive probabilistic transitions, and we prove that

User perception and interpretation of tornado probabilistic hazard information: Comparison of four graphical designs.

Science.gov (United States)

Miran, Seyed M; Ling, Chen; James, Joseph J; Gerard, Alan; Rothfusz, Lans

2017-11-01

Effective design for presenting severe weather information is important to reduce devastating consequences of severe weather. The Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system for severe weather is being developed by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to communicate probabilistic hazardous weather information. This study investigates the effects of four PHI graphical designs for tornado threat, namely, "four-color"," red-scale", "grayscale" and "contour", on users' perception, interpretation, and reaction to threat information. PHI is presented on either a map background or a radar background. Analysis showed that the accuracy was significantly higher and response time faster when PHI was displayed on map background as compared to radar background due to better contrast. When displayed on a radar background, "grayscale" design resulted in a higher accuracy of responses. Possibly due to familiarity, participants reported four-color design as their favorite design, which also resulted in the fastest recognition of probability levels on both backgrounds. Our study shows the importance of using intuitive color-coding and sufficient contrast in conveying probabilistic threat information via graphical design. We also found that users follows a rational perceiving-judging-feeling-and acting approach in processing probabilistic hazard information for tornado. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

OVERVIEW OF THE SAPHIRE PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Curtis L.; Wood, Ted; Knudsen, James; Ma, Zhegang

2016-10-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) is a software application developed for performing a complete probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using a personal computer (PC) running the Microsoft Windows operating system. SAPHIRE Version 8 is funded by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and developed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). INL's primary role in this project is that of software developer and tester. However, INL also plays an important role in technology transfer by interfacing and supporting SAPHIRE users, who constitute a wide range of PRA practitioners from the NRC, national laboratories, the private sector, and foreign countries. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current technical capabilities found in SAPHIRE Version 8, including the user interface and enhanced solving algorithms.

The transition to early fatherhood: National estimates based on multiple surveys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Elizabeth Peters

2008-04-01

Full Text Available This study provides systematic information about the prevalence of early male fertility and the relationship between family background characteristics and early parenthood across three widely used data sources: the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth and the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth. We provide descriptive statistics on early fertility by age, sex, race, cohort, and data set. Because each data set includes birth cohorts with varying early fertility rates, prevalence estimates for early male fertility are relatively similar across data sets. Associations between background characteristics and early fertility in regression models are less consistent across data sets. We discuss the implications of these findings for scholars doing research on early male fertility.

A national survey of radiodiagnostic services in Ecuador

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penaherrera S, P.; Echeverria T, F.; Buitron S, S.; Yela de Chacon, L.

1979-11-01

The Ecuadorian Atomic Energy Commission elaborated a Radiation Protection Regulation for Ecuador. In order to implement it, a national survey of radiodiagnostic services was implemented with the following objectives: a) Statistics of Radiodiagnostic services related to geography and population ulation density, b) To establish general patterns for X-Ray control and calibration, c) Evaluation of the professional and technical work in this field. (Author)

A PROBABILISTIC DEMAND APPLICATION IN THE AMERICAN CRACKER MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rutherford Cd. Johnson

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of the distribution of consumer buying strategies by producers may permit improved marketing strategies and improved ability to respond to volatile market conditions. In order to investigate potential ways of gaining such knowledge, this study extends the work of Kahneman, Russell, and Thaler through the application of a probabilistic demand framework using Choice Wave theory, based on the Schrödinger Wave Equation in quantum mechanics. Probabilistic variability of response to health information and its potential influence on buying strategies is also investigated, extending the work of Clement, Johnson, Hu, Pagoulatos, and Debertin. In the present study, the domestic cracker market within fourteen U.S. metropolitan areas is segmented, using the Choice Wave Probabilistic Demand approach, into two statistically independent “Consumer Types” of seven metropolitan areas each. The two Consumer Types are shown to have statistically different elasticities than each other and from the combined market as a whole. This approach may provide not only improved marketing strategies through improved awareness of consumer preferences and buying strategies, especially in the volatile agricultural sector, but also may be useful in aiding producers of store brand/private label products in finding desirable markets in which to compete against national brands. The results also suggest that supply/producer-side strategies should take into account the ways in which information, whether under the direct control of the producer or not, may influence and change consumer buying strategies.

Probabilistic approach to mechanisms

CERN Document Server

Sandler, BZ

1984-01-01

This book discusses the application of probabilistics to the investigation of mechanical systems. The book shows, for example, how random function theory can be applied directly to the investigation of random processes in the deflection of cam profiles, pitch or gear teeth, pressure in pipes, etc. The author also deals with some other technical applications of probabilistic theory, including, amongst others, those relating to pneumatic and hydraulic mechanisms and roller bearings. Many of the aspects are illustrated by examples of applications of the techniques under discussion.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-28

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-01

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Types of non-probabilistic sampling used in marketing research. „Snowball” sampling

OpenAIRE

Manuela Rozalia Gabor

2007-01-01

A significant way of investigating a firm’s market is the statistical sampling. The sampling typology provides a non / probabilistic models of gathering information and this paper describes thorough information related to network sampling, named “snowball” sampling. This type of sampling enables the survey of occurrence forms concerning the decision power within an organisation and of the interpersonal relation network governing a certain collectivity, a certain consumer panel. The snowball s...

National Survey Report of Photovoltaic Power Applications in France 2016

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaaijk, Paul; Mehl, Celine; Carrere, Tristan

2017-06-01

The objective of Task 1 of the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Program is to promote and facilitate the exchange and dissemination of information on the technical, economic, environmental and social aspects of PV power systems. Task 1 activities support the broader PVPS objectives: to contribute to cost reduction of PV power applications, to increase awareness of the potential and value of PV power systems, to foster the removal of both technical and non-technical barriers and to enhance technology co-operation. An important deliverable of Task 1 is the annual 'Trends in photovoltaic applications' report. In parallel, National Survey Reports are produced annually by each Task 1 participant. This document is France National Survey Report for the year 2016. Information from this document will be used as input to IEA's annual Trends in photovoltaic applications report

Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Raftery, Adrian E

2016-12-01

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don't need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications.

Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don’t need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications. PMID:28446941

Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark

2015-07-08

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

An Aerial Radiological Survey of Abandoned Uranium Mines in the Navajo Nation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendricks, T.J.

2001-01-01

Aerial radiological surveys of forty-one geographical areas in the Navajo Nation were conducted during the period of October 1994 through October 1999. The surveys were conducted at the request of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 9 and were performed by personnel of the Remote Sensing Laboratory (RSL) located in Las Vegas, Nevada, a facility of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Operations Office. The aerial survey and subsequent processing characterized the overall radioactivity levels and excess bismuth 214 activity (indicator of uranium ore deposits and/or uranium mines) within the surveyed areas. A total of 772,000 aerial gamma spectra and associated position parameters were obtained and analyzed during the multi-year operation. The survey determined that only 15 square miles (39 square kilometers) of the 1,144 square miles (2,963 square kilometers) surveyed (approximately 1.3 %) had excess bismuth indications above the minimum reportable activity, thus reducing the area requiring further investigation by a nominal factor of 76. Radiation contour data files, produced by RSL, were converted to Geographic Information System-compatible digital files and provided to EPA and EPA contractors for inclusion in numerous reports and graphics products

Probabilistic linguistics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bod, R.; Heine, B.; Narrog, H.

2010-01-01

Probabilistic linguistics takes all linguistic evidence as positive evidence and lets statistics decide. It allows for accurate modelling of gradient phenomena in production and perception, and suggests that rule-like behaviour is no more than a side effect of maximizing probability. This chapter

Probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets in decision making with positive and negative parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Fatimah, F.; Rosadi, D.; Hakim, R. B. F.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we motivate and introduce probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets for handling decision making problem in the presence of positive and negative parameters. We propose several types of algorithms related to this problem. Our procedures are flexible and adaptable. An example on real data is also given.

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

This report contains the preliminary findings based on the first phase of an Environmental Survey at the Department of Energy (DOE) Sandia National Laboratories Livermore (SNLL), located at Livermore, California. The Survey is being conducted by DOE's Office of Environment, Safety and Health. The SNLL Survey is a portion of the larger, comprehensive DOE Environmental Survey encompassing all major operating facilities of DOE. The DOE Environmental Survey is one of a series of initiatives announced on September 18, 1985, by Secretary of Energy, John S. Herrington, to strengthen the environmental, safety, and health programs and activities within DOE. The purpose of the Environmental Survey is to identify, via a ''no fault'' baseline Survey of all the Department's major operating facilities, environmental problems and areas of environmental risk. The identified problem areas will be prioritized on a Department-wide basis in order of importance in 1989. The findings in this report are subject to modification based on the results from the Sampling and Analysis Phase of the Survey. The findings are also subject to modification based on comments from the Albuquerque Operations Office concerning the technical accuracy of the findings. The modified preliminary findings and any other appropriate changes will be incorporated into an Interim Report. The Interim Report will serve as the site-specific source for environmental information generated by the Survey, and ultimately as the primary source of information for the DOE-wide prioritization of environmental problems in the Survey Summary Report. 43 refs., 21 figs., 24 tabs

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-01-01

This report contains the preliminary findings based on the first phase of an Environmental Survey at the Department of Energy (DOE) Sandia National Laboratories Livermore (SNLL), located at Livermore, California. The Survey is being conducted by DOE's Office of Environment, Safety and Health. The SNLL Survey is a portion of the larger, comprehensive DOE Environmental Survey encompassing all major operating facilities of DOE. The DOE Environmental Survey is one of a series of initiatives announced on September 18, 1985, by Secretary of Energy, John S. Herrington, to strengthen the environmental, safety, and health programs and activities within DOE. The purpose of the Environmental Survey is to identify, via a no fault'' baseline Survey of all the Department's major operating facilities, environmental problems and areas of environmental risk. The identified problem areas will be prioritized on a Department-wide basis in order of importance in 1989. The findings in this report are subject to modification based on the results from the Sampling and Analysis Phase of the Survey. The findings are also subject to modification based on comments from the Albuquerque Operations Office concerning the technical accuracy of the findings. The modified preliminary findings and any other appropriate changes will be incorporated into an Interim Report. The Interim Report will serve as the site-specific source for environmental information generated by the Survey, and ultimately as the primary source of information for the DOE-wide prioritization of environmental problems in the Survey Summary Report. 43 refs., 21 figs., 24 tabs.

Why do probabilistic finite element analysis ?

CERN Document Server

Thacker, Ben H

2008-01-01

The intention of this book is to provide an introduction to performing probabilistic finite element analysis. As a short guideline, the objective is to inform the reader of the use, benefits and issues associated with performing probabilistic finite element analysis without excessive theory or mathematical detail.

Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

2011-01-01

The assumption in some current theories of probabilistic categorization is that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report 2 probabilistic-categorization experiments in which we investigated error…

Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections

OpenAIRE

Ševčíková, Hana; Li, Nan; Kantorová, Vladimíra; Gerland, Patrick; Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$) using Bayesian hierarchical models, yielding a large set of future trajectories of TFR and $e_0$ for all countries and future time periods to 2100, sampled from their joint predictive distribution. Each trajectory was then converted to age-specific mortalit...

Probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Salvatier

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Probabilistic programming allows for automatic Bayesian inference on user-defined probabilistic models. Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling allow inference on increasingly complex models. This class of MCMC, known as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, requires gradient information which is often not readily available. PyMC3 is a new open source probabilistic programming framework written in Python that uses Theano to compute gradients via automatic differentiation as well as compile probabilistic programs on-the-fly to C for increased speed. Contrary to other probabilistic programming languages, PyMC3 allows model specification directly in Python code. The lack of a domain specific language allows for great flexibility and direct interaction with the model. This paper is a tutorial-style introduction to this software package.

Survey on application of probabilistic fracture mechanics approach to nuclear piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kashima, Koichi

1987-01-01

Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) approach is newly developed as one of the tools to evaluate the structural integrity of nuclear components. This report describes the current status of PFM studies for pressure vessel and piping system in light water reactors and focuses on the investigations of the piping failure probability which have been undertaken by USNRC. USNRC reevaluates the double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) of rector coolant piping as a design basis event for nuclear power plant by using the PFM approach. For PWR piping systems designed by Westinghouse, two causes of pipe break are considered: pipe failure due to the crack growth and pipe failure indirectly caused by failure of component supports due to an earthquake. PFM approach shows that the probability of DEGB from either cause is very low and that the effect of earthquake on pipe failure can be neglected. (author)

National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses II. Status of Nurses: November 1980.

Science.gov (United States)

Bentley, Barbara S.; And Others

This report provides data describing the nursing population as determined by the second national sample survey of registered nurses. A brief introduction is followed by a chapter that presents an overview of the survey methodology, including details on the sampling design, the response rate, and the statistical reliability. Chapter 3 provides a…

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

1993-04-01

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

2012-06-01

To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (X-10), Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-07-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), X-10 site, conducted August 17 through September 4, 1987. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Individual team specialists are outside experts supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with ORNL. The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. The on-site phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations carried on at ORNL, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by a DOE National Laboratory or a support contractor. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the Environmental Survey Interim Report for ORNL. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the ORNL Survey. 120 refs., 68 figs., 71 tabs.

Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-Scale Composite Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Chamis, Christos C.

2012-01-01

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the non-deterministic composite response at all composite scales (from micro to structural) due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties, in the fabrication process and in structural variables (primitive variables). The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of composite behavior, such as material properties, laminate and structural responses. Bi-products of the methodology are probabilistic sensitivities of the composite primitive variables. The methodology has been implemented into the computer codes PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer) and IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in composite typical laminates and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Available experimental data of composite laminate behavior at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN. Multi-scaling is extended to simulate probabilistic thermo-mechanical fatigue and to simulate the probabilistic design of a composite redome in order to illustrate its versatility. Results show that probabilistic fatigue can be simulated for different temperature amplitudes and for different cyclic stress magnitudes. Results also show that laminate configurations can be selected to increase the redome reliability by several orders of magnitude without increasing the laminate thickness--a unique feature of structural composites. The old reference denotes that nothing fundamental has been done since that time.

Developing a geoscience knowledge framework for a national geological survey organisation

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Andrew S.; Hatton, Bill; Reitsma, Femke; Lawrie, Ken I. G.

2009-04-01

Geological survey organisations (GSOs) are established by most nations to provide a geoscience knowledge base for effective decision-making on mitigating the impacts of natural hazards and global change, and on sustainable management of natural resources. The value of the knowledge base as a national asset is continually enhanced by the exchange of knowledge between GSOs as data and information providers and the stakeholder community as knowledge 'users and exploiters'. Geological maps and associated narrative texts typically form the core of national geoscience knowledge bases, but have some inherent limitations as methods of capturing and articulating knowledge. Much knowledge about the three-dimensional (3D) spatial interpretation and its derivation and uncertainty, and the wider contextual value of the knowledge, remains intangible in the minds of the mapping geologist in implicit and tacit form. To realise the value of these knowledge assets, the British Geological Survey (BGS) has established a workflow-based cyber-infrastructure to enhance its knowledge management and exchange capability. Future geoscience surveys in the BGS will contribute to a national, 3D digital knowledge base on UK geology, with the associated implicit and tacit information captured as metadata, qualitative assessments of uncertainty, and documented workflows and best practice. Knowledge-based decision-making at all levels of society requires both the accessibility and reliability of knowledge to be enhanced in the grid-based world. Establishment of collaborative cyber-infrastructures and ontologies for geoscience knowledge management and exchange will ensure that GSOs, as knowledge-based organisations, can make their contribution to this wider goal.

Eczema Is Associated with Childhood Speech Disorder: A Retrospective Analysis from the National Survey of Children's Health and the National Health Interview Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Strom, Mark A; Silverberg, Jonathan I

2016-01-01

To determine if eczema is associated with an increased risk of a speech disorder. We analyzed data on 354,416 children and adolescents from 19 US population-based cohorts: the 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 National Survey of Children's Health and 1997-2013 National Health Interview Survey, each prospective, questionnaire-based cohorts. In multivariate survey logistic regression models adjusting for sociodemographics and comorbid allergic disease, eczema was significantly associated with higher odds of speech disorder in 12 of 19 cohorts (P speech disorder in children with eczema was 4.7% (95% CI 4.5%-5.0%) compared with 2.2% (95% CI 2.2%-2.3%) in children without eczema. In pooled multivariate analysis, eczema was associated with increased odds of speech disorder (aOR [95% CI] 1.81 [1.57-2.05], P speech disorder. History of eczema was associated with moderate (2.35 [1.34-4.10], P = .003) and severe (2.28 [1.11-4.72], P = .03) speech disorder. Finally, significant interactions were found, such that children with both eczema and attention deficit disorder with or without hyperactivity or sleep disturbance had vastly increased risk of speech disorders than either by itself. Pediatric eczema may be associated with increased risk of speech disorder. Further, prospective studies are needed to characterize the exact nature of this association. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aerial radiological survey of the Argonne National Laboratory and surrounding area, Argonne, Illinois. Date of survey: May 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-12-01

An aerial radiological survey was conducted over the facilities of the Argonne National Laboratory in Argonne, Illinois, on 2 to 13 May 1977. The survey was flown at an altitude of 46 m by a helicopter containing 20 sodium iodide detectors. The line spacing was also 46 m. Enhanced gamma exposure rate levels, which could be attributed to Argonne operations, were observed at many locations

Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kudinov, P.; Vorobyev, Y.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Queral, C.; Jimenez Varas, G.; Rebollo, M. J.; Mena, L.; Gomez-Magin, J.

2014-02-01

IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses. (Author)

Probabilistic Cue Combination: Less Is More

Science.gov (United States)

Yurovsky, Daniel; Boyer, Ty W.; Smith, Linda B.; Yu, Chen

2013-01-01

Learning about the structure of the world requires learning probabilistic relationships: rules in which cues do not predict outcomes with certainty. However, in some cases, the ability to track probabilistic relationships is a handicap, leading adults to perform non-normatively in prediction tasks. For example, in the "dilution effect,"…

[SWOT Analysis of the National Survey on Current Status of Major Human Parasitic Diseases in China].

Science.gov (United States)

ZHU, Hui-hui; ZHOU, Chang-hai; CHEN, Ying-dan; ZANG, Wei; XIAO, Ning; ZHOU, Xiao-nong

2015-10-01

The National Survey on Current Status of Major Human Parasitic Diseases in China has been carried out since 2014 under the organization of the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. The National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (NIPD, China CDC) provided technical support and was responsible for quality control in this survey. This study used SWOT method to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that were encountered by he NIPD, China CDC during the completion of the survey. Accordingly, working strategies were proposed to facilitate the future field work.

Handwashing with soap and national handwashing projects in Korea: focus on the National Handwashing Survey, 2006-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moo-Sik Lee

2015-08-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Handwashing is the most fundamental way to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. Correct handwashing can prevent 50 to 70% of water-infections and foodborne-infections. We report the results of a fact-finding study on general handwashing attitude and practice in the Republic of Korea by analyzing habits and awareness among adults and students (grades 4 to 12 based on the 2006 to 2014 National Handwashing Surveys and observational surveys. METHODS: The awareness survey was performed by telephone interviews with adults and students in 16 municipalities and provinces sampled by quota for region, sex and age. The observational survey was performed in subway, railway, and other public restrooms in seven municipalities selected through systematic sampling. RESULTS: Adults and students washed their hands with soap/sanitizer an average of 6.6 and 5.2 times daily, respectively, in 2014, an increase and decrease compared to 2006 (4.8 and 2013 (6.8. Their average daily handwashing frequency in 2014, 9.8 and 8.3, was higher than in 2006 (7.6, but lower than in 2013 (10.3.The percentage of participants handwashing with soap after using the restroom (29.5% has been increasing since 2009, but remain slower than in other countries (42% to 49%. The percentages of participants handwashing with water in 2014, 2013, and 2011 were 57.5%, 72.6%, and 71.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Handwashing with soap is an important national public health issue, and national projects promoting it should be given high priority. Research support is necessary to provide scientific evidence of the importance of handwashing with soap and to develop and implement evidence-based policies.

A survey of macromycete diversity at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Bandelier National Monument, and Los Alamos County; A preliminary report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jarmie, N.; Rogers, F.J. [Mycology Associates, Los Alamos, NM (United States)

1997-11-01

The authors have completed a 5-year survey (1991--1995) of macromycetes found in Los Alamos County, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Bandelier National Monument. The authors have compiled a database of 1,048 collections, their characteristics, and identifications. The database represents 123 (98%) genera and 175 (73%) species reliably identified. Issues of habitat loss, species extinction, and ecological relationships are addressed, and comparisons with other surveys are made. With this baseline information and modeling of this baseline data, one can begin to understand more about the fungal flora of the area.

Comparison of acrylamide intake from Western and guideline based diets using probabilistic techniques and linear programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Josh M; Winter, Carl K; Buttrey, Samuel E; Fadel, James G

2012-03-01

Western and guideline based diets were compared to determine if dietary improvements resulting from following dietary guidelines reduce acrylamide intake. Acrylamide forms in heat treated foods and is a human neurotoxin and animal carcinogen. Acrylamide intake from the Western diet was estimated with probabilistic techniques using teenage (13-19 years) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) food consumption estimates combined with FDA data on the levels of acrylamide in a large number of foods. Guideline based diets were derived from NHANES data using linear programming techniques to comport to recommendations from the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2005. Whereas the guideline based diets were more properly balanced and rich in consumption of fruits, vegetables, and other dietary components than the Western diets, acrylamide intake (mean±SE) was significantly greater (Plinear programming and results demonstrate that linear programming techniques can be used to model specific diets for the assessment of toxicological and nutritional dietary components. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

77 FR 2349 - Proposed Information Collection (Nation-wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys) Activity: Comment...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-17

... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS [OMB Control No. 2900-0712] Proposed Information Collection (Nation-wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys) Activity: Comment Request AGENCY: Veterans Health Administration... techniques or the use of other forms of information technology. Title: Nation-wide Customer Satisfaction...

Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography

OpenAIRE

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Cord, Anna F; Kessler, Michael; Kreft, Holger; Kühn, Ingolf; Pompe, Sven; Sandel, Brody; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Smith, Adam B; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Tuomisto, Hanna; Weigelt, Patrick; Wesche, Karsten

2016-01-01

Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjuncti...

Teens, Health and Technology: A National Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellen Wartella

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the age of digital technology, as teens seem to be constantly connected online, via social media, and through mobile applications, it is no surprise that they increasingly turn to digital media to answer their health questions. This study is the first of its kind to survey a large, nationally-representative sample of teens to investigate how they use the newest digital technologies, including mobile apps, social networking sites, electronic gaming and wearable devices, to explore health topics. The survey covered the types of health topics teens most frequently search for, which technologies they are most likely to use and how they use them, and whether they report having changed their behaviors due to digital health information. In addition, this survey explores how the digital divide continues to impact adolescents. Results of this study indicate that teens are concerned about many health issues, ranging from fitness, sexual activity, drugs, hygiene as well as mental health and stress. As teens virtually always have a digital device at their fingertips, it is clear that public health interventions and informational campaigns must be tailored to reflect the ways that teens currently navigate digital health information and the health challenges that concern them most.

A national survey of memory clinics in the Republic of Ireland.

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, Suzanne; Pierce, Maria; Moore, Vanessa

2014-04-01

This national survey investigates the location, resourcing, staff composition, treatments, waiting time, and numbers of patients attending memory clinics (MCs) in the Republic of Ireland. It also explores Directors' attitudes to future service development including their views about the advantages and disadvantages of quality standards for MCs. An audio-taped telephone interview was conducted with the Directors. A total of 14 MCs were identified across the Republic of Ireland, ten of which are hospital-based and most of which offer diagnostic services and are located in Dublin. Nine MCs are medical consultant led and operate under the direction of either Old Age Psychiatrists or Geriatricians. Results show wide variation regarding the location, team size, service availability, and numbers of patients attending. The average number of patients attending in 2011 was 126. Only six clinics employ dedicated Allied Health Professionals. Less than half of the clinics are research active. Whilst most Directors welcomed the availability of national standards, several expressed concern that standards might, in the absence of funding, result in the closure of the most poorly resourced services. This survey provides valuable data on the main characteristics of all of the 14 MCs delivering services in the Republic of Ireland and raises critical and fundamental questions about the goals and outcomes of MC services. The survey data collected can be used by other countries for cross-national comparison.

A Danish national survey of women operated with mid-urethral slings in 2001

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ammendrup, Astrid Cecilie; Jørgensen, Anette; Sander, Pia

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To perform a national survey on self-reported cure, satisfaction and complications four years after mid-urethral sling (MUS) for urinary stress incontinence in Danish women operated in 2001. DESIGN: A postal questionnaire survey. POPULATION: All Danish women who received an MUS operation...

National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS-1997-2011)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) is designed to collect information from all facilities in the United States, both public and...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 Day Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 6 to 10 day probabilistic precipitation outlooks for the United States. The 6-10 day Outlook gives the confidence that a...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 Day Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 8 to 14 day probabilistic precipitation outlooks for the United States. The 8-14 day Outlook gives the confidence that a...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 Day Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 6 to 10 day probabilistic temperature outlooks for the United States. The 6-10 day Outlook gives the confidence that a...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 Day Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 8 to 14 day probabilistic temperature outlooks for the United States. The 8-14 day Outlook gives the confidence that a...

Probabilistic Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, H. F.

This chapter describes how partial safety factors can be used in design of vertical wall breakwaters and an example of a code format is presented. The partial safety factors are calibrated on a probabilistic basis. The code calibration process used to calibrate some of the partial safety factors...

Beverages consumption in Brazil: results from the first National Dietary Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Rosangela A; Souza, Amanda M; Duffey, Kiyah J; Sichieri, Rosely; Popkin, Barry M

2014-01-01

Objective To provide an overview of beverage consumption patterns using the first nationally representative survey of dietary intake in Brazil. Design Beverage consumption data were obtained by 1-day food records in an individual dietary survey. Setting nationwide cross-sectional survey, 2008–09. Subjects nationally representative sample of individuals ≥10 years (n=34,003). Results Beverages contributed to 17.1% of total energy consumption. Caloric coffee beverages provided the greatest level of energy overall (464 kJ or 111 kcal/d). Individuals from 10 to 18 (243 kJ or 58 kcal/d) and from 19 to 39 years old (230 kJ or 55 kcal/d consumed higher proportion of energy from sugar sweetened soft drinks than individuals over this age (142 kJ or 34 kcal/d for those 40–59 and 79 kJ or 19 kcal/d for those >60 years old). Conclusions Overall, the contribution of beverages, particularly sugary beverages, to total energy consumption in Brazil represents an important public health challenge and is comparable with those from other countries. PMID:25158687

An affordable proxy of representative national survey on radon concentration in dwellings: Design, organisation and preliminary evaluation of representativeness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antignani, Sara; Carelli, Vinicio; Cordedda, Carlo; Zonno, Fedele; Ampollini, Marco; Carpentieri, Carmela; Venoso, Gennaro; Bochicchio, Francesco

2013-01-01

Representative national surveys in dwellings are important to unbiasedly evaluate the exposure of the general population to radon. In Italy, a representative national survey was conducted from 1989 to 1996, which involved about 5600 dwellings in 232 towns. Later on, some Regions carried out more detailed surveys, but a new national survey in dwellings is necessary in order to obtain a more thorough estimate of radon concentration distribution over the Italian territory. The need to make this survey in an affordable way led to implement a new approach based on the collaboration between the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and a national company with workplaces and employees' homes throughout the country. The intent is to carry out a proxy of a population representative survey by measuring radon concentration in the homes of a random sample of the company employees. The realisation of this survey was affordable, thanks to the availability of corporate e-mail for each employee, intranet service, and company internal mail service. A dedicated web procedure and e-questionnaires allowed to automatically manage the contact with employees and to collect their data, which were both cost- and time-saving. Using this e-mail contact approach, 53% of contacted employees consented to participate in the survey. Radon concentration passive measuring devices were distributed to about 7000 dwellings, using about 14000 CR-39 detectors (two measured rooms per dwelling). In order to reduce costs, the devices were exposed for 12 months instead of two consecutive 6-month periods (as with the former national survey). A first checking of the actual representativeness of the sample was done by comparing characteristics of dwellings and occupants in the sample with corresponding data from the latest National Census. This was accomplished thanks to the fact that the questions in the survey questionnaire were tailored to the categories adopted for the Census questionnaire. A preliminary

Seasonal distribution and aerial surveys of mountain goats in Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, Kurt; Beirne, Katherine; Happe, Patricia; Hoffman, Roger; Rice, Cliff; Schaberl, Jim

2011-01-01

We described the seasonal distribution of Geographic Positioning System (GPS)-collared mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks to evaluate aerial survey sampling designs and provide general information for park managers. This work complemented a companion study published elsewhere of aerial detection biases of mountain goat surveys in western Washington. Specific objectives reported here were to determine seasonal and altitudinal movements, home range distributions, and temporal dynamics of mountain goat movements in and out of aerial survey sampling frames established within each park. We captured 25 mountain goats in Mount Rainier (9), North Cascades (5), and Olympic (11) National Parks, and fitted them with GPS-collars programmed to obtain 6-8 locations daily. We obtained location data on 23 mountain goats for a range of 39-751 days from 2003 to 2008. Altitudinal distributions of GPS-collared mountain goats varied individually and seasonally, but median altitudes used by individual goats during winter ranged from 817 to 1,541 meters in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks, and 1,215 to 1,787 meters in Mount Rainier National Park. Median altitudes used by GPS-collared goats during summer ranged from 1,312 to 1,819 meters in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks, and 1,780 to 2,061 meters in Mount Rainier National Park. GPS-collared mountain goats generally moved from low-altitude winter ranges to high-altitude summer ranges between June 11 and June 19 (range April 24-July 3) and from summer to winter ranges between October 26 and November 9 (range September 11-December 23). Seasonal home ranges (95 percent of adaptive kernel utilization distribution) of males and female mountain goats were highly variable, ranging from 1.6 to 37.0 kilometers during summers and 0.7 to 9.5 kilometers during winters. Locations of GPS-collared mountain goats were almost 100 percent within the sampling frame used for

Probabilistic Learning by Rodent Grid Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Allen

2016-10-01

Mounting evidence shows mammalian brains are probabilistic computers, but the specific cells involved remain elusive. Parallel research suggests that grid cells of the mammalian hippocampal formation are fundamental to spatial cognition but their diverse response properties still defy explanation. No plausible model exists which explains stable grids in darkness for twenty minutes or longer, despite being one of the first results ever published on grid cells. Similarly, no current explanation can tie together grid fragmentation and grid rescaling, which show very different forms of flexibility in grid responses when the environment is varied. Other properties such as attractor dynamics and grid anisotropy seem to be at odds with one another unless additional properties are assumed such as a varying velocity gain. Modelling efforts have largely ignored the breadth of response patterns, while also failing to account for the disastrous effects of sensory noise during spatial learning and recall, especially in darkness. Here, published electrophysiological evidence from a range of experiments are reinterpreted using a novel probabilistic learning model, which shows that grid cell responses are accurately predicted by a probabilistic learning process. Diverse response properties of probabilistic grid cells are statistically indistinguishable from rat grid cells across key manipulations. A simple coherent set of probabilistic computations explains stable grid fields in darkness, partial grid rescaling in resized arenas, low-dimensional attractor grid cell dynamics, and grid fragmentation in hairpin mazes. The same computations also reconcile oscillatory dynamics at the single cell level with attractor dynamics at the cell ensemble level. Additionally, a clear functional role for boundary cells is proposed for spatial learning. These findings provide a parsimonious and unified explanation of grid cell function, and implicate grid cells as an accessible neuronal population

The 2011 National School Climate Survey: The Experiences of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Youth in Our Nation's Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Kosciw, Joseph G.; Greytak, Emily A.; Bartkiewicz, Mark J.; Boesen, Madelyn J.; Palmer, Neal A.

2012-01-01

In 1999, the Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network (GLSEN) identified the need for national data on the experiences of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) students and launched the first National School Climate Survey (NSCS). At the time, the school experiences of LGBT youth were under-documented and nearly absent from national…

Probabilistic composition of preferences, theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Parracho Sant'Anna, Annibal

2015-01-01

Putting forward a unified presentation of the features and possible applications of probabilistic preferences composition, and serving as a methodology for decisions employing multiple criteria, this book maximizes reader insights into the evaluation in probabilistic terms and the development of composition approaches that do not depend on assigning weights to the criteria. With key applications in important areas of management such as failure modes, effects analysis and productivity analysis – together with explanations about the application of the concepts involved –this book makes available numerical examples of probabilistic transformation development and probabilistic composition. Useful not only as a reference source for researchers, but also in teaching classes of graduate courses in Production Engineering and Management Science, the key themes of the book will be of especial interest to researchers in the field of Operational Research.

Home mechanical ventilation in Canada: a national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Louise; McKim, Douglas A; Katz, Sherri L; Leasa, David; Nonoyama, Mika; Pedersen, Cheryl; Goldstein, Roger S; Road, Jeremy D

2015-05-01

No comprehensive Canadian national data describe the prevalence of and service provision for ventilator-assisted individuals living at home, data critical to health-care system planning for appropriate resourcing. Our objective was to generate national data profiling service providers, users, types of services, criteria for initiation and monitoring, ventilator servicing arrangements, education, and barriers to home transition. Eligible providers delivering services to ventilator-assisted individuals (adult and pediatric) living at home were identified by our national provider inventory and referrals from other providers. The survey was administered via a web link from August 2012 to April 2013. The survey response rate was 152/171 (89%). We identified 4,334 ventilator-assisted individuals: an estimated prevalence of 12.9/100,000 population, with 73% receiving noninvasive ventilation (NIV) and 18% receiving intermittent mandatory ventilation (9% not reported). Services were delivered by 39 institutional providers and 113 community providers. We identified variation in initiation criteria for NIV, with polysomnography demonstrating nocturnal hypoventilation (57%), daytime hypercapnia (38%), and nocturnal hypercapnia (32%) as the most common criteria. Various models of ventilator servicing were reported. Most providers (64%) stated that caregiver competency was a prerequisite for home discharge; however, repeated competency assessment and retraining were offered by only 45%. Important barriers to home transition were: insufficient funding for paid caregivers, equipment, and supplies; a shortage of paid caregivers; and negotiating public funding arrangements. Ventilatory support in the community appears well-established, with most individuals managed with NIV. Although caregiver competency is a prerequisite to discharge, ongoing assessment and retraining were infrequent. Funding and caregiver availability were important barriers to home transition. Copyright © 2015

Probabilistic Reversible Automata and Quantum Automata

OpenAIRE

Golovkins, Marats; Kravtsev, Maksim

2002-01-01

To study relationship between quantum finite automata and probabilistic finite automata, we introduce a notion of probabilistic reversible automata (PRA, or doubly stochastic automata). We find that there is a strong relationship between different possible models of PRA and corresponding models of quantum finite automata. We also propose a classification of reversible finite 1-way automata.

Survey, Research And Prospect Of Signage Systems In National Parks In Yunnan Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

wenjuan XU

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The Signage System is essential to establishing a national park. The authors conducted surveys, analysis and research of identification signs, informational sign, directional signs and functional signs from the signage systems adopted by five national parks in Yunnan Province. Relying on the results, with reference to industry experience, years of research related to national park, successful cases of overseas national parks and the current signage systems across China’s national parks, the paper aims to explore future development strategies of national park signage systems that are suitable for China.

Probabilistic uniformities of uniform spaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodriguez Lopez, J.; Romaguera, S.; Sanchis, M.

2017-07-01

The theory of metric spaces in the fuzzy context has shown to be an interesting area of study not only from a theoretical point of view but also for its applications. Nevertheless, it is usual to consider these spaces as classical topological or uniform spaces and there are not too many results about constructing fuzzy topological structures starting from a fuzzy metric. Maybe, H/{sup o}hle was the first to show how to construct a probabilistic uniformity and a Lowen uniformity from a probabilistic pseudometric /cite{Hohle78,Hohle82a}. His method can be directly translated to the context of fuzzy metrics and allows to characterize the categories of probabilistic uniform spaces or Lowen uniform spaces by means of certain families of fuzzy pseudometrics /cite{RL}. On the other hand, other different fuzzy uniformities can be constructed in a fuzzy metric space: a Hutton $[0,1]$-quasi-uniformity /cite{GGPV06}; a fuzzifiying uniformity /cite{YueShi10}, etc. The paper /cite{GGRLRo} gives a study of several methods of endowing a fuzzy pseudometric space with a probabilistic uniformity and a Hutton $[0,1]$-quasi-uniformity. In 2010, J. Guti/'errez Garc/'{/i}a, S. Romaguera and M. Sanchis /cite{GGRoSanchis10} proved that the category of uniform spaces is isomorphic to a category formed by sets endowed with a fuzzy uniform structure, i. e. a family of fuzzy pseudometrics satisfying certain conditions. We will show here that, by means of this isomorphism, we can obtain several methods to endow a uniform space with a probabilistic uniformity. Furthermore, these constructions allow to obtain a factorization of some functors introduced in /cite{GGRoSanchis10}. (Author)

Bisimulations meet PCTL equivalences for probabilistic automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun; Godskesen, Jens Chr.

2013-01-01

Probabilistic automata (PAs) have been successfully applied in formal verification of concurrent and stochastic systems. Efficient model checking algorithms have been studied, where the most often used logics for expressing properties are based on probabilistic computation tree logic (PCTL) and its...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health: 4-Year R-DAS (NSDUH-2002-2005)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This file includes data from the 2002 through 2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) survey. The only variables included in the data file are ones that...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health: 8-Year R-DAS (NSDUH-2002-2009)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This file includes data from the 2002 through 2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) survey. The only variables included in the 8-year 2002-2009 data...

National Survey on Drug Use and Health: 2-Year R-DAS (NSDUH-2002-2003)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This file includes data from the 2002 through 2011 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) survey. The only variables included in the data file are ones that...

State survey of silviculture nonpoint source programs: a comparison of the 2000 northeastern and national results

Science.gov (United States)

Pamela J. Edwards; Gordon W. Stuart

2002-01-01

The National Association of State Foresters conducts surveys of silviculture nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control programs to measure progress and identify needs. The 2000 survey results are summarized here for the nation and for the 20-state northeastern region. Current emphasis of NPS pollution programs is on education, training, and monitoring. Educational...

A National Survey of Female Counselors: Psychological and Behavioral Correlates.

Science.gov (United States)

Thoreson, Richard W.; And Others

A national sample of female counselors (N=377) was surveyed regarding their psychological health and distress, work pressure and support, personal history (including erotic sexual contact with clients), personal traits, burnout and stress, personal work satisfaction, and professional concerns. Results revealed a wide variety of endorsed concerns.…

Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; Buslik, A.J.

1984-01-01

A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a range of tissues affecting reactor safety. This guide addresses the determination of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident initiators internal to the plant and from loss of offsite electric power. The scope includes analyses of problem-solving (cognitive) human errors, a determination of importance of the various core damage accident sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for the key accident sequences. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance) and the risk associated with external accident initiators, as consensus is developed regarding suitable methodologies in these areas. This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are essential for regulatory decision making. Methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study

National Pregnancy and Health Survey: Drug Use Among Women Delivering Live Births (NPHS-1992)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The primary objective of the National Pregnancy and Health Survey (NPHS) was to produce national annual estimates of the percentages and numbers of mothers of live...

Multiobjective optimal allocation problem with probabilistic non ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper considers the optimum compromise allocation in multivariate stratified sampling with non-linear objective function and probabilistic non-linear cost constraint. The probabilistic non-linear cost constraint is converted into equivalent deterministic one by using Chance Constrained programming. A numerical ...

Pre-processing for Triangulation of Probabilistic Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bodlaender, H.L.; Koster, A.M.C.A.; Eijkhof, F. van den; Gaag, L.C. van der

2001-01-01

The currently most efficient algorithm for inference with a probabilistic network builds upon a triangulation of a networks graph. In this paper, we show that pre-processing can help in finding good triangulations for probabilistic networks, that is, triangulations with a minimal maximum

Strategic Team AI Path Plans: Probabilistic Pathfinding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tng C. H. John

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method to generate strategic team AI pathfinding plans for computer games and simulations using probabilistic pathfinding. This method is inspired by genetic algorithms (Russell and Norvig, 2002, in that, a fitness function is used to test the quality of the path plans. The method generates high-quality path plans by eliminating the low-quality ones. The path plans are generated by probabilistic pathfinding, and the elimination is done by a fitness test of the path plans. This path plan generation method has the ability to generate variation or different high-quality paths, which is desired for games to increase replay values. This work is an extension of our earlier work on team AI: probabilistic pathfinding (John et al., 2006. We explore ways to combine probabilistic pathfinding and genetic algorithm to create a new method to generate strategic team AI pathfinding plans.

National critical incident reporting systems relevant to anaesthesia: a European survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, S; Arnal, D; Frank, O; Gomez-Arnau, J I; Hansen, J; Lester, O; Mikkelsen, K L; Rhaiem, T; Rosenberg, P H; St Pierre, M; Schleppers, A; Staender, S; Smith, A F

2014-03-01

Critical incident reporting is a key tool in the promotion of patient safety in anaesthesia. We surveyed representatives of national incident reporting systems in six European countries, inviting information on scope and organization, and intelligence on factors determining success and failure. Some systems are government-run and nationally conceived; others started out as small, specialty-focused initiatives, which have since acquired a national reach. However, both national co-ordination and specialty enthusiasts seem to be necessary for an optimally functioning system. The role of reporting culture, definitional issues, and dissemination is discussed. We make recommendations for others intending to start new systems and speculate on the prospects for sharing patient safety lessons relevant to anaesthesia at European level.

Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments Jan Dettmer School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria BC...long-range inversion methods can fail to provide sufficient resolution. For proper quantitative examination of variability, parameter uncertainty must...project aims to advance probabilistic geoacoustic inversion methods for complex ocean environments for a range of geoacoustic data types. The work is

EV Charging Analysis Based on the National Travel Surveys of the Nordic Area

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei

2014-01-01

This paper presents the charging demand profiles of electric vehicles (EVs) based on the National Travel Surveys of the Nordic area. The EV charging analysis is carried out considering different types of charging patterns which are dumb charging, timed charging and spot price based charging....... The driving behavior of the vehicles is studied through the National Travel Surveys of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The features of the charging demand are discussed based on the results of the analysis. The study in this paper provides an estimation of the possible level and patterns of the EV...

Optimization (Alara) and probabilistic exposures: the application of optimization criteria to the control of risks due to exposures of a probabilistic nature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez, A.J.

1989-01-01

The paper described the application of the principles of optimization recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to the restrain of radiation risks due to exposures that may or may not be incurred and to which a probability of occurrence can be assigned. After describing the concept of probabilistic exposures, it proposes a basis for a converging policy of control for both certain and probabilistic exposures, namely the dose-risk relationship adopted for radiation protection purposes. On that basis some coherent approaches for dealing with probabilistic exposures, such as the limitation of individual risks, are discussed. The optimization of safety for reducing all risks from probabilistic exposures to as-low-as-reasonably-achievable (ALARA) levels is reviewed in full. The principles of optimization of protection are used as a basic framework and the relevant factors to be taken into account when moving to probabilistic exposures are presented. The paper also reviews the decision-aiding techniques suitable for performing optimization with particular emphasis to the multi-attribute utility-analysis technique. Finally, there is a discussion on some practical application of decision-aiding multi-attribute utility analysis to probabilistic exposures including the use of probabilistic utilities. In its final outlook, the paper emphasizes the need for standardization and solutions to generic problems, if optimization of safety is to be successful

The 2015 National School Climate Survey: The Experiences of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Queer Youth in Our Nation's Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Kosciw, Joseph G.; Greytak, Emily A.; Giga, Noreen M.; Villenas, Christian; Danischewski, David J.

2016-01-01

The Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network (GLSEN) "National School Climate Survey" is our flagship report on the school experiences of LGBTQ youth in schools, including the extent of the challenges that they face at school and the school-based resources that support LGBTQ students' well-being. The survey has consistently indicated…

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

Science.gov (United States)

Shiao, Michael C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Chamis, Christos C.

1988-01-01

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Probabilistic conditional independence structures

CERN Document Server

Studeny, Milan

2005-01-01

Probabilistic Conditional Independence Structures provides the mathematical description of probabilistic conditional independence structures; the author uses non-graphical methods of their description, and takes an algebraic approach.The monograph presents the methods of structural imsets and supermodular functions, and deals with independence implication and equivalence of structural imsets.Motivation, mathematical foundations and areas of application are included, and a rough overview of graphical methods is also given.In particular, the author has been careful to use suitable terminology, and presents the work so that it will be understood by both statisticians, and by researchers in artificial intelligence.The necessary elementary mathematical notions are recalled in an appendix.

Public health financial management needs: report of a national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Costich, Julia F; Honoré, Peggy A; Scutchfield, F Douglas

2009-01-01

The work reported here builds on the identification of public health financial management practice competencies by a national expert panel. The next logical step was to provide a validity check for the competencies and identify priority areas for educational programming. We developed a survey for local public health finance officers based on the public health finance competencies and field tested it with a convenience sample of officials. We asked respondents to indicate the importance of each competency area and the need for training to improve performance; we also requested information regarding respondent education, jurisdiction size, and additional comments. Our local agency survey sample drew on the respondent list from the National Association of County and City Health Officials 2005 local health department survey, stratified by agency size and limited to jurisdiction populations of 25,000 to 1,000,000. Identifying appropriate respondents was a major challenge. The survey was fielded electronically, yielding 112 responses from 30 states. The areas identified as most important and needing most additional training were knowledge of budget activities, financial data interpretation and communication, and ability to assess and correct the organization's financial status. The majority of respondents had some postbaccalaureate education. Many provided additional comments and recommendations. Health department finance officers demonstrated a high level of general agreement regarding the importance of finance competencies in public health and the need for training. The findings point to a critical need for additional training opportunities that are accessible, cost-effective, and targeted to individual needs.

HIV seroprevalence among Mexicans age 15 to 49: results from the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Pablo Gutiérrez

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objective. To estimate the HIV seroprevalence among Mexicans aged 15 to 49 years old and living in households, and to describe the profile of serorreactive individuals. Materials and methods. Cross-sectional study with a national probabilistic sample of individuals aged 15 to 49 years with behavioral data from direct interview (face-to-face at households and HIV screening using capillary blood collected from the same individuals. Results. A seroprevalence of 0.15% (95%CI 0.09-0.21 was estimated for Mexicans aged 15 to 49; seroprevalence among women was 0.07% (95%CI 0.03-0.11 and 0.24% (95%CI 0.11-0.36 for men. HIV serorreactive population is composed of younger men, with a higher socioeconomic level compared to the general population, and with a higher insurance coverage –social protection on health in general and social security in particular. Only 50% of the serorreactive individuals may be aware of their status as living with HIV. Conclusions. The estimated HIV seroprevalence in the NHNS 2012 suggests a stable pattern since 2000. The estimated prevalence among individuals 15 to 49 years was adjusted both for selection bias correction and to include MSM estimations (under the assumption that MSM is a population hard to reach in a household survey, resulting in a total seroprevalence of 0.23% and an estimated number of people with HIV of 140000

Probabilistic assessment of nuclear safety and safeguards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higson, D.J.

1987-01-01

Nuclear reactor accidents and diversions of materials from the nuclear fuel cycle are perceived by many people as particularly serious threats to society. Probabilistic assessment is a rational approach to the evaluation of both threats, and may provide a basis for decisions on appropriate actions to control them. Probabilistic method have become standard tools used in the analysis of safety, but there are disagreements on the criteria to be applied when assessing the results of analysis. Probabilistic analysis and assessment of the effectiveness of nuclear material safeguards are still at an early stage of development. (author)

Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for ...

Science.gov (United States)

Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER measurements. An algorithm for probabilistically estimating AER was developed based on the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Infiltration model utilizing housing characteristics and meteorological data with adjustment for window opening behavior. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured AERs in four US cities (Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Elizabeth, NJ; and Houston, TX) inputting study-specific data. The impact on the modeled AER of using publically available housing data representative of the region for each city was also assessed. Finally, modeled AER based on region-specific inputs was compared with those estimated using literature-based distributions. While modeled AERs were similar in magnitude to the measured AER they were consistently lower for all cities except Houston. AERs estimated using region-specific inputs were lower than those using study-specific inputs due to differences in window opening probabilities. The algorithm produced more spatially and temporally variable AERs compared with literature-based distributions reflecting within- and between-city differences, helping reduce error in estimates of air pollutant exposure. Published in the Journal of

Numeracy of multiple sclerosis patients: A comparison of patients from the PERCEPT study to a German probabilistic sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Giese, Helge; Galesic, Mirta; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Kasper, Juergen; Kleiter, Ingo; Meuth, Sven G; Köpke, Sascha; Heesen, Christoph

2018-01-01

A shared decision-making approach is suggested for multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. To properly evaluate benefits and risks of different treatment options accordingly, MS patients require sufficient numeracy - the ability to understand quantitative information. It is unknown whether MS affects numeracy. Therefore, we investigated whether patients' numeracy was impaired compared to a probabilistic national sample. As part of the larger prospective, observational, multicenter study PERCEPT, we assessed numeracy for a clinical study sample of German MS patients (N=725) with a standard test and compared them to a German probabilistic sample (N=1001), controlling for age, sex, and education. Within patients, we assessed whether disease variables (disease duration, disability, annual relapse rate, cognitive impairment) predicted numeracy beyond these demographics. MS patients showed a comparable level of numeracy as the probabilistic national sample (68.9% vs. 68.5% correct answers, P=0.831). In both samples, numeracy was higher for men and the highly educated. Disease variables did not predict numeracy beyond demographics within patients, and predictability was generally low. This sample of MS patients understood quantitative information on the same level as the general population. There is no reason to withhold quantitative information from MS patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental Survey Report for ORNL: Small Mammal Abundance and Distribution Survey Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park 2009 - 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giffen, Neil R [ORNL; Reasor, R. Scott [Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE); Campbell, Claire L. [Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE)

2009-12-01

This report summarizes a 1-year small mammal biodiversity survey conducted on the Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park (OR Research Park). The task was implemented through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Natural Resources Management Program and included researchers from the ORNL Environmental Sciences Division, interns in the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Higher Education Research Experiences Program, and ORNL Environmental Protection Services staff. Eight sites were surveyed reservation wide. The survey was conducted in an effort to determine species abundance and diversity of small mammal populations throughout the reservation and to continue the historical inventory of small mammal presence for biodiversity records. This data collection effort was in support of the approved Wildlife Management Plan for the Oak Ridge Reservation, a major goal of which is to maintain and enhance wildlife biodiversity on the Reservation. Three of the sites (Poplar Creek, McNew Hollow, and Deer Check Station Field) were previously surveyed during a major natural resources inventory conducted in 1996. Five new sites were included in this study: Bearden Creek, Rainy Knob (Natural Area 21), Gum Hollow, White Oak Creek and Melton Branch. The 2009-2010 small mammal surveys were conducted from June 2009 to July 2010 on the Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park (OR Research Park). The survey had two main goals: (1) to determine species abundance and diversity and (2) to update historical records on the OR Research Park. The park is located on the Department of Energy-owned Oak Ridge Reservation, which encompasses 13,580 ha. The primary focus of the study was riparian zones. In addition to small mammal sampling, vegetation and coarse woody debris samples were taken at certain sites to determine any correlations between habitat and species presence. During the survey all specimens were captured and released using live trapping techniques including

77 FR 64382 - Agency Information Collection (Nation-Wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys) Activities Under OMB...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-19

... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS [OMB Control No. 2900-0712] Agency Information Collection (Nation-Wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys) Activities Under OMB Review AGENCY: Veterans Health Administration... ``OMB Control No. 2900-0712.'' SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Title: Nation-wide Customer Satisfaction...

75 FR 25320 - Agency Information Collection (Nation-wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys) Activities Under OMB...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-07

... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS [OMB Control No. 2900-0712] Agency Information Collection (Nation-wide Customer Satisfaction Surveys) Activities Under OMB Review AGENCY: Veterans Health Administration... ``OMB Control No. 2900-0712.'' SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Title: Nation-wide Customer Satisfaction...

A Markov Chain Approach to Probabilistic Swarm Guidance

Science.gov (United States)

Acikmese, Behcet; Bayard, David S.

2012-01-01

This paper introduces a probabilistic guidance approach for the coordination of swarms of autonomous agents. The main idea is to drive the swarm to a prescribed density distribution in a prescribed region of the configuration space. In its simplest form, the probabilistic approach is completely decentralized and does not require communication or collabo- ration between agents. Agents make statistically independent probabilistic decisions based solely on their own state, that ultimately guides the swarm to the desired density distribution in the configuration space. In addition to being completely decentralized, the probabilistic guidance approach has a novel autonomous self-repair property: Once the desired swarm density distribution is attained, the agents automatically repair any damage to the distribution without collaborating and without any knowledge about the damage.

Probabilistic reasoning for assembly-based 3D modeling

KAUST Repository

Chaudhuri, Siddhartha

2011-01-01

Assembly-based modeling is a promising approach to broadening the accessibility of 3D modeling. In assembly-based modeling, new models are assembled from shape components extracted from a database. A key challenge in assembly-based modeling is the identification of relevant components to be presented to the user. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reasoning approach to this problem. Given a repository of shapes, our approach learns a probabilistic graphical model that encodes semantic and geometric relationships among shape components. The probabilistic model is used to present components that are semantically and stylistically compatible with the 3D model that is being assembled. Our experiments indicate that the probabilistic model increases the relevance of presented components. © 2011 ACM.

National survey and community advisory board development for a bipolar disorder biobank.

Science.gov (United States)

Frye, Mark A; Doederlein, Allen; Koenig, Barbara; McElroy, Susan L; Nassan, Malik; Seymour, Lisa R; Biernacka, Joanna M; Daniels, Allen S

2015-09-01

The aim of the present study was to engage a national advocacy group and local stakeholders for guidance in developing a bipolar disorder biobank through a web-based survey and a community advisory board. The Depression and Bipolar Support Alliance and the Mayo Clinic Bipolar Biobank conducted a national web-based survey inquiring about interest in participating in a biobank (i.e., giving DNA and clinical information). A community advisory board was convened to guide establishment of the biobank and identify key deliverables from the research project and for the community. Among 385 survey respondents, funding source (87%), professional opinion (76%), mental health consumer opinion (79%), and return of research results (91%) were believed to be important for considering study participation. Significantly more patients were willing to participate in a biobank managed by a university or clinic (78.2%) than one managed by government (63.4%) or industry (58.2%; both p bipolar disorder developing in a child of an affected parent and which medications to avoid. The advisory board endorsed the use of a comprehension questionnaire to evaluate participants' understanding of the study (e.g., longevity of DNA specimens, right to remove samples, accessing medical records) as a means to strengthen the informed consent process. These national survey and community advisory data support the merit of establishing a biobank to enable studies of disease risk, provided that health records and research results are adequately protected. The goals of earlier diagnosis and individualized treatment of bipolar disorder were endorsed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for select space propulsion system components

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H. R.; Cruse, T. A.

1989-01-01

The Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project developed at the Southwest Research Institute integrates state-of-the-art structural analysis techniques with probability theory for the design and analysis of complex large-scale engineering structures. An advanced efficient software system (NESSUS) capable of performing complex probabilistic analysis has been developed. NESSUS contains a number of software components to perform probabilistic analysis of structures. These components include: an expert system, a probabilistic finite element code, a probabilistic boundary element code and a fast probability integrator. The NESSUS software system is shown. An expert system is included to capture and utilize PSAM knowledge and experience. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator (FPI). The expert system menu structure is summarized. The NESSUS system contains a state-of-the-art nonlinear probabilistic finite element code, NESSUS/FEM, to determine the structural response and sensitivities. A broad range of analysis capabilities and an extensive element library is present.

Probabilistic reasoning in data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sirovich, Lawrence

2011-09-20

This Teaching Resource provides lecture notes, slides, and a student assignment for a lecture on probabilistic reasoning in the analysis of biological data. General probabilistic frameworks are introduced, and a number of standard probability distributions are described using simple intuitive ideas. Particular attention is focused on random arrivals that are independent of prior history (Markovian events), with an emphasis on waiting times, Poisson processes, and Poisson probability distributions. The use of these various probability distributions is applied to biomedical problems, including several classic experimental studies.

Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Ramos

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

Bisphenol-A and Sleep Adequacy among Adults in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Beydoun, Hind A.; Beydoun, May A.; Jeng, Hueiwang Anna; Zonderman, Alan B.; Eid, Shaker M.

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: To evaluate bisphenol-A (BPA) level and its relationship to sleep adequacy in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted using 2005–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey whereby data were collected using in-person interviews, physical examination and laboratory testing. BPA level was measured in urine samples and analyzed as loge-transformed variable and in quartiles ( 8 h); (Bisphenol-A and sleep adequacy among adults in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. SLEEP 2016;39(2):467–476. PMID:26446109

Hospitalization in Parkinson disease: a survey of National Parkinson Foundation Centers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chou, K.L.; Zamudio, J.; Schmidt, P.; Price, C.C.; Parashos, S.A.; Bloem, B.R.; Lyons, K.E.; Christine, C.W.; Pahwa, R.; Bodis-Wollner, I.; Oertel, W.H.; Suchowersky, O.; Aminoff, M.J.; Malaty, I.A.; Friedman, J.H.; Okun, M.S.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To explore current practices and opinions regarding hospital management of Parkinson disease (PD) patients in specialized PD Centers. METHODS: Fifty-one out of 54 National Parkinson Foundation (NPF) Centers worldwide completed an online survey regarding hospitalization of PD patients.

A linear process-algebraic format for probabilistic systems with data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Timmer, Mark; Gomes, L.; Khomenko, V.; Fernandes, J.M.

This paper presents a novel linear process algebraic format for probabilistic automata. The key ingredient is a symbolic transformation of probabilistic process algebra terms that incorporate data into this linear format while preserving strong probabilistic bisimulation. This generalises similar

Life and Work Values of Counselor Trainees: A National Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Busacca, Louis A.; Beebe, Ronald S.; Toman, Sarah M.

2010-01-01

This national web-based study used the Schwartz Value Survey (Schwartz, 1994) and Super's Work Values Inventory-Revised (Zytowski, n.d.) to identify general life and work value orientations of 674 female and male entry-level counselor trainees residing in 27 states. In general, trainees emphasized benevolence, self-direction, and achievement and…

Challenges to the provision of diabetes care in first nations communities: results from a national survey of healthcare providers in Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Macaulay Ann C

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Aboriginal peoples globally, and First Nations peoples in Canada particularly, suffer from high rates of type 2 diabetes and related complications compared with the general population. Research into the unique barriers faced by healthcare providers working in on-reserve First Nations communities is essential for developing effective quality improvement strategies. Methods In Phase I of this two-phased study, semi-structured interviews and focus groups were held with 24 healthcare providers in the Sioux Lookout Zone in north-western Ontario. A follow-up survey was conducted in Phase II as part of a larger project, the Canadian First Nations Diabetes Clinical Management and Epidemiologic (CIRCLE study. The survey was completed with 244 healthcare providers in 19 First Nations communities in 7 Canadian provinces, representing three isolation levels (isolated, semi-isolated, non-isolated. Interviews, focus groups and survey questions all related to barriers to providing optimal diabetes care in First Nations communities. Results the key factors emerging from interviews and focus group discussions were at the patient, provider, and systemic level. Survey results indicated that, across three isolation levels, healthcare providers' perceived patient factors as having the largest impact on diabetes care. However, physicians and nurses were more likely to rank patient factors as having a large impact on care than community health representatives (CHRs and physicians were significantly less likely to rank patient-provider communication as having a large impact than CHRs. Conclusions Addressing patient factors was considered the highest impact strategy for improving diabetes care. While this may reflect "patient blaming," it also suggests that self-management strategies may be well-suited for this context. Program planning should focus on training programs for CHRs, who provide a unique link between patients and clinical services

Aerial radiological survey of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho. Date of survey: June 1982

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-02-01

An aerial radiological survey of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) was conducted during June 1982 by EG and G Energy Measurements, Inc. for the United States Department of Energy (DOE). The survey consisted of airborne measurements of both natural and man-made gamma radiation from the terrain surface in and around the INEL site. These measurements allowed an estimate of the distribution of isotopic concentrations in the survey area. Results are reported as isopleths superimposed on maps and photographs of the area. Gamma ray energy spectra are also presented for the net man-made radionuclides. The survey was designed to cover all of the area within a 2 mile radius of any facility at the INEL. Several areas of man-made activity were detected. These areas are all known working or storage areas which are associated with normal operations at the INEL. 3 references, 48 figures, 5 tables

Probabilistic thread algebra

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergstra, J.A.; Middelburg, C.A.

2015-01-01

We add probabilistic features to basic thread algebra and its extensions with thread-service interaction and strategic interleaving. Here, threads represent the behaviours produced by instruction sequences under execution and services represent the behaviours exhibited by the components of execution

Use of Probabilistic Engineering Methods in the Detailed Design and Development Phases of the NASA Ares Launch Vehicle

Science.gov (United States)

Fayssal, Safie; Weldon, Danny

2008-01-01

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.

On probabilistic forecasting of wind power time-series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre

power dynamics. In both cases, the model parameters are adaptively and recursively estimated, time-adaptativity being the result of exponential forgetting of past observations. The probabilistic forecasting methodology is applied at the Horns Rev wind farm in Denmark, for 10-minute ahead probabilistic...... forecasting of wind power generation. Probabilistic forecasts generated from the proposed methodology clearly have higher skill than those obtained from a classical Gaussian assumption about wind power predictive densities. Corresponding point forecasts also exhibit significantly lower error criteria....

The physical examination content of the Japanese National Health and Nutrition Survey: temporal changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Hisako; Imai, Shino; Nakade, Makiko; Imai, Eri; Takimoto, Hidemi

2016-12-01

Survey items of the Japan National Nutrition Survey (J-NNS) have changed over time. Several papers on dietary surveys have been published; however, to date, there are no in-depth papers regarding physical examinations. Therefore, we investigated changes in the survey items in the physical examinations performed in the J-NNS and the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS), with the aim of incorporating useful data for future policy decisions. We summarized the description of physical examinations and marshalled the changes of survey items from the J-NNS and NHNS from 1946 to 2012. The physical examination is roughly classified into the following six components: some are relevant to anthropometric measurements, clinical measurements, physical symptoms, blood tests, lifestyle and medication by interview, and others. Items related to nutritional deficiency, such as anaemia and tendon reflex disappearance, and body weight measurements were collected during the early period, according to the instructions of the General Headquarters. From 1989, blood tests and measurement of physical activity were added, and serum total protein, total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, blood glucose, red blood corpuscles and haemoglobin measurements have been performed continuously for more than 20 years. This is the first report on the items of physical examination in the J-NNS and NHNS. Our research results provide basic information for the utilization of the J-NNS and NHNS, to researchers, clinicians or policy makers. Monitoring the current state correctly is essential for national health promotion, and also for improvement of the investigation methods to apply country-by-country comparisons.

Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

1989-11-01

A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

Deliverable D74.2. Probabilistic analysis methods for support structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas

2018-01-01

Relevant Description: Report describing the probabilistic analysis for offshore substructures and results attained. This includes comparison with experimental data and with conventional design. Specific targets: 1) Estimate current reliability level of support structures 2) Development of basis...... for probabilistic calculations and evaluation of reliability for offshore support structures (substructures) 3) Development of a probabilistic model for stiffness and strength of soil parameters and for modeling geotechnical load bearing capacity 4) Comparison between probabilistic analysis and deterministic...

A common fixed point for operators in probabilistic normed spaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghaemi, M.B.; Lafuerza-Guillen, Bernardo; Razani, A.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Metric spaces was introduced by Karl Menger. Alsina, Schweizer and Sklar gave a general definition of probabilistic normed space based on the definition of Menger [Alsina C, Schweizer B, Sklar A. On the definition of a probabilistic normed spaces. Aequationes Math 1993;46:91-8]. Here, we consider the equicontinuity of a class of linear operators in probabilistic normed spaces and finally, a common fixed point theorem is proved. Application to quantum Mechanic is considered.

A History of Probabilistic Inductive Logic Programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabrizio eRiguzzi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The field of Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP has seen significant advances in the last 20 years, with many proposals for languages that combine probability with logic programming. Since the start, the problem of learning probabilistic logic programs has been the focus of much attention. Learning these programs represents a whole subfield of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP. In Probabilistic ILP (PILP two problems are considered: learning the parameters of a program given the structure (the rules and learning both the structure and the parameters. Usually structure learning systems use parameter learning as a subroutine. In this article we present an overview of PILP and discuss the main results.

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE KEY TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE QUALITY CONTROL AND INSPECTION OF NATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONDITIONS SURVEY PRODUCTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Zhao

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The First National Geographical Condition Survey is a predecessor task to dynamically master basic situations of the nature, ecology and human activities on the earth’s surface and it is the brand-new mapping geographic information engineering. In order to ensure comprehensive, real and accurate survey results and achieve the quality management target which the qualified rate is 100 % and the yield is more than 80 %, it is necessary to carry out the quality control and result inspection for national geographical conditions survey on a national scale. To ensure that achievement quality meets quality target requirements, this paper develops the key technology method of “five-in-one” quality control that is constituted by “quality control system of national geographical condition survey, quality inspection technology system, quality evaluation system, quality inspection information management system and national linked quality control institutions” by aiming at large scale, wide coverage range, more undertaking units, more management levels, technical updating, more production process and obvious regional differences in the national geographical condition survey and combining with novel achievement manifestation, complicated dependency, more special reference data, and large data size. This project fully considering the domestic and foreign related research results and production practice experience, combined with the technology development and the needs of the production, it stipulates the inspection methods and technical requirements of each stage in the quality inspection of the geographical condition survey results, and extends the traditional inspection and acceptance technology, and solves the key technologies that are badly needed in the first national geographic survey.

Development and Application of the Key Technologies for the Quality Control and Inspection of National Geographical Conditions Survey Products

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Y.; Zhang, L.; Ma, W.; Zhang, P.; Zhao, T.

2018-04-01

The First National Geographical Condition Survey is a predecessor task to dynamically master basic situations of the nature, ecology and human activities on the earth's surface and it is the brand-new mapping geographic information engineering. In order to ensure comprehensive, real and accurate survey results and achieve the quality management target which the qualified rate is 100 % and the yield is more than 80 %, it is necessary to carry out the quality control and result inspection for national geographical conditions survey on a national scale. To ensure that achievement quality meets quality target requirements, this paper develops the key technology method of "five-in-one" quality control that is constituted by "quality control system of national geographical condition survey, quality inspection technology system, quality evaluation system, quality inspection information management system and national linked quality control institutions" by aiming at large scale, wide coverage range, more undertaking units, more management levels, technical updating, more production process and obvious regional differences in the national geographical condition survey and combining with novel achievement manifestation, complicated dependency, more special reference data, and large data size. This project fully considering the domestic and foreign related research results and production practice experience, combined with the technology development and the needs of the production, it stipulates the inspection methods and technical requirements of each stage in the quality inspection of the geographical condition survey results, and extends the traditional inspection and acceptance technology, and solves the key technologies that are badly needed in the first national geographic survey.

Probabilistic methods in combinatorial analysis

CERN Document Server

Sachkov, Vladimir N

2014-01-01

This 1997 work explores the role of probabilistic methods for solving combinatorial problems. These methods not only provide the means of efficiently using such notions as characteristic and generating functions, the moment method and so on but also let us use the powerful technique of limit theorems. The basic objects under investigation are nonnegative matrices, partitions and mappings of finite sets, with special emphasis on permutations and graphs, and equivalence classes specified on sequences of finite length consisting of elements of partially ordered sets; these specify the probabilist

Probabilistic coding of quantum states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grudka, Andrzej; Wojcik, Antoni; Czechlewski, Mikolaj

2006-01-01

We discuss the properties of probabilistic coding of two qubits to one qutrit and generalize the scheme to higher dimensions. We show that the protocol preserves the entanglement between the qubits to be encoded and the environment and can also be applied to mixed states. We present a protocol that enables encoding of n qudits to one qudit of dimension smaller than the Hilbert space of the original system and then allows probabilistic but error-free decoding of any subset of k qudits. We give a formula for the probability of successful decoding

Probabilistic Modeling of Timber Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, J.D.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2005-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) and of the COST action E24 'Reliability of Timber Structures'. The present...... proposal is based on discussions and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for components and connections. The recommended...

A National Survey of Exposure to Power Frequency Magnetic Fields ('ORCHID')

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hareuveny, R.; Eliyahu, I.; Yaffe, Y.; Ben David, I.; Riven, M.; Kandel, S.; Kheifets, L.

2014-01-01

This abstract briefly presents ORCHID - a national survey of exposure to power frequency magnetic fields. While the initial focus of the project was the MFs survey, the extraordinary interest and skills of the gifted children and willingness to participate in the project, persuaded us to increase its educational component. Over 50 'double' measurements (Spot and Personal) out of 100 planed have been completed. 10-15 different educational centers in Israel already applied to join the project. Extension of this project into other countries is being considered

Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2014-02-14

Feb 14, 2014 ... Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model ... aim of this paper is to investigate the increase in the lead-time of flash flood warnings of the SAFFG using probabilistic precipitation forecasts ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based.

Probabilistic Analysis Methods for Hybrid Ventilation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brohus, Henrik; Frier, Christian; Heiselberg, Per

This paper discusses a general approach for the application of probabilistic analysis methods in the design of ventilation systems. The aims and scope of probabilistic versus deterministic methods are addressed with special emphasis on hybrid ventilation systems. A preliminary application...... of stochastic differential equations is presented comprising a general heat balance for an arbitrary number of loads and zones in a building to determine the thermal behaviour under random conditions....

Patient Survey (PCH - HCAHPS) PPS-exempt Cancer Hospital – National

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of hospital ratings for the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS). HCAHPS is a national, standardized survey of hospital...

Probabilistic Matching of Deidentified Data From a Trauma Registry and a Traumatic Brain Injury Model System Center: A Follow-up Validation Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Raj G; Wang, Zhensheng; Kesinger, Matthew R; Newman, Mark; Huynh, Toan T; Niemeier, Janet P; Sperry, Jason L; Wagner, Amy K

2018-04-01

In a previous study, individuals from a single Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems and trauma center were matched using a novel probabilistic matching algorithm. The Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems is a multicenter prospective cohort study containing more than 14,000 participants with traumatic brain injury, following them from inpatient rehabilitation to the community over the remainder of their lifetime. The National Trauma Databank is the largest aggregation of trauma data in the United States, including more than 6 million records. Linking these two databases offers a broad range of opportunities to explore research questions not otherwise possible. Our objective was to refine and validate the previous protocol at another independent center. An algorithm generation and validation data set were created, and potential matches were blocked by age, sex, and year of injury; total probabilistic weight was calculated based on of 12 common data fields. Validity metrics were calculated using a minimum probabilistic weight of 3. The positive predictive value was 98.2% and 97.4% and sensitivity was 74.1% and 76.3%, in the algorithm generation and validation set, respectively. These metrics were similar to the previous study. Future work will apply the refined probabilistic matching algorithm to the Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems and the National Trauma Databank to generate a merged data set for clinical traumatic brain injury research use.

Factors affecting study efficiency and item non-response in health surveys in developing countries: the Jamaica national healthy lifestyle survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bennett Franklyn

2007-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health surveys provide important information on the burden and secular trends of risk factors and disease. Several factors including survey and item non-response can affect data quality. There are few reports on efficiency, validity and the impact of item non-response, from developing countries. This report examines factors associated with item non-response and study efficiency in a national health survey in a developing Caribbean island. Methods A national sample of participants aged 15–74 years was selected in a multi-stage sampling design accounting for 4 health regions and 14 parishes using enumeration districts as primary sampling units. Means and proportions of the variables of interest were compared between various categories. Non-response was defined as failure to provide an analyzable response. Linear and logistic regression models accounting for sample design and post-stratification weighting were used to identify independent correlates of recruitment efficiency and item non-response. Results We recruited 2012 15–74 year-olds (66.2% females at a response rate of 87.6% with significant variation between regions (80.9% to 97.6%; p Conclusion Informative health surveys are possible in developing countries. While survey response rates may be satisfactory, item non-response was high in respect of income and sexual practice. In contrast to developed countries, non-response to questions on income is higher and has different correlates. These findings can inform future surveys.

Is Probabilistic Evidence a Source of Knowledge?

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Ori; Turri, John

2015-01-01

We report a series of experiments examining whether people ascribe knowledge for true beliefs based on probabilistic evidence. Participants were less likely to ascribe knowledge for beliefs based on probabilistic evidence than for beliefs based on perceptual evidence (Experiments 1 and 2A) or testimony providing causal information (Experiment 2B).…

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

Undecidability of model-checking branching-time properties of stateless probabilistic pushdown process

OpenAIRE

Lin, T.

2014-01-01

In this paper, we settle a problem in probabilistic verification of infinite--state process (specifically, {\\it probabilistic pushdown process}). We show that model checking {\\it stateless probabilistic pushdown process} (pBPA) against {\\it probabilistic computational tree logic} (PCTL) is undecidable.

Probabilistic safety assessment as a standpoint for decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2001-01-01

This paper focuses on the role of probabilistic safety assessment in decision-making. The prerequisites for use of the results of probabilistic safety assessment and the criteria for the decision-making based on probabilistic safety assessment are discussed. The decision-making process is described. It provides a risk evaluation of impact of the issue under investigation. Selected examples are discussed, which highlight the described process. (authors)

Worry as a Predictor of Nutrition Behaviors: Results from a Nationally Representative Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrer, Rebecca A.; Bergman, Hannah E.; Klein, William M. P.

2013-01-01

Worry has been shown to predict a variety of health behaviors, such as cancer screening, yet there are few studies linking worry and nutrition. This study used nationally representative data from National Cancer Institute's Food Attitudes and Behavior Survey ("n" = 3,397) to examine the association between health-related worry and a variety of…

Three-dimensional Probabilistic Earthquake Location Applied to 2002-2003 Mt. Etna Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Mostaccio, A.; Tuve', T.; Zuccarello, L.; Patane', D.; Saccorotti, G.; D'Agostino, M.

2005-12-01

Recorded seismicity for the Mt. Etna volcano, occurred during the 2002-2003 eruption, has been relocated using a probabilistic, non-linear, earthquake location approach. We used the software package NonLinLoc (Lomax et al., 2000) adopting the 3D velocity model obtained by Cocina et al., 2005. We applied our data through different algorithms: (1) via a grid-search; (2) via a Metropolis-Gibbs; and (3) via an Oct-tree. The Oct-Tree algorithm gives efficient, faster and accurate mapping of the PDF (Probability Density Function) of the earthquake location problem. More than 300 seismic events were analyzed in order to compare non-linear location results with the ones obtained by using traditional, linearized earthquake location algorithm such as Hypoellipse, and a 3D linearized inversion (Thurber, 1983). Moreover, we compare 38 focal mechanisms, chosen following stricta criteria selection, with the ones obtained by the 3D and 1D results. Although the presented approach is more of a traditional relocation application, probabilistic earthquake location could be used in routinely survey.

Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; Nauta, Maarten; Havelaar, Arie H.; Fels, Ine van der

2006-01-01

We discuss an application of probabilistic inversion techniques to a model of campylobacter transmission in chicken processing lines. Such techniques are indicated when we wish to quantify a model which is new and perhaps unfamiliar to the expert community. In this case there are no measurements for estimating model parameters, and experts are typically unable to give a considered judgment. In such cases, experts are asked to quantify their uncertainty regarding variables which can be predicted by the model. The experts' distributions (after combination) are then pulled back onto the parameter space of the model, a process termed 'probabilistic inversion'. This study illustrates two such techniques, iterative proportional fitting (IPF) and PARmeter fitting for uncertain models (PARFUM). In addition, we illustrate how expert judgement on predicted observable quantities in combination with probabilistic inversion may be used for model validation and/or model criticism

Analysis of truncation limit in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, Marko

2005-01-01

A truncation limit defines the boundaries of what is considered in the probabilistic safety assessment and what is neglected. The truncation limit that is the focus here is the truncation limit on the size of the minimal cut set contribution at which to cut off. A new method was developed, which defines truncation limit in probabilistic safety assessment. The method specifies truncation limits with more stringency than presenting existing documents dealing with truncation criteria in probabilistic safety assessment do. The results of this paper indicate that the truncation limits for more complex probabilistic safety assessments, which consist of larger number of basic events, should be more severe than presently recommended in existing documents if more accuracy is desired. The truncation limits defined by the new method reduce the relative errors of importance measures and produce more accurate results for probabilistic safety assessment applications. The reduced relative errors of importance measures can prevent situations, where the acceptability of change of equipment under investigation according to RG 1.174 would be shifted from region, where changes can be accepted, to region, where changes cannot be accepted, if the results would be calculated with smaller truncation limit

Limited probabilistic risk assessment applications in plant backfitting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desaedeleer, G.

1987-01-01

Plant backfitting programs are defined on the basis of deterministic (e.g. Systematic Evaluation Program) or probabilistic (e.g. Probabilistic Risk Assessment) approaches. Each approach provides valuable assets in defining the program and has its own advantages and disadvantages. Ideally one should combine the strong points of each approach. This chapter summarizes actual experience gained from combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to define and implement PWR backfitting programs. Such combinations relate to limited applications of probabilistic techniques and are illustrated for upgrading fluid systems. These evaluations allow sound and rational optimization systems upgrade. However, the boundaries of the reliability analysis need to be clearly defined and system reliability may have to go beyond classical boundaries (e.g. identification of weak links in support systems). Also the implementation of upgrade on a system per system basis is not necessarily cost-effective. (author)

2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

2010-01-01

Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

National Survey on Drug Use and Health: 10-Year Substate R-DAS (NSDUH-2002-2011)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This file includes data from the 2002 through 2011 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) survey. The only variables included in the data file are ones that...

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Fossum, A. F.

1990-01-01

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Probabilistic dual heuristic programming-based adaptive critic

Science.gov (United States)

Herzallah, Randa

2010-02-01

Adaptive critic (AC) methods have common roots as generalisations of dynamic programming for neural reinforcement learning approaches. Since they approximate the dynamic programming solutions, they are potentially suitable for learning in noisy, non-linear and non-stationary environments. In this study, a novel probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP)-based AC controller is proposed. Distinct to current approaches, the proposed probabilistic (DHP) AC method takes uncertainties of forward model and inverse controller into consideration. Therefore, it is suitable for deterministic and stochastic control problems characterised by functional uncertainty. Theoretical development of the proposed method is validated by analytically evaluating the correct value of the cost function which satisfies the Bellman equation in a linear quadratic control problem. The target value of the probabilistic critic network is then calculated and shown to be equal to the analytically derived correct value. Full derivation of the Riccati solution for this non-standard stochastic linear quadratic control problem is also provided. Moreover, the performance of the proposed probabilistic controller is demonstrated on linear and non-linear control examples.

Probabilistic Load Flow

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2008-01-01

This paper reviews the development of the probabilistic load flow (PLF) techniques. Applications of the PLF techniques in different areas of power system steady-state analysis are also discussed. The purpose of the review is to identify different available PLF techniques and their corresponding...

Probabilistic inversion in priority setting of emerging zoonoses.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kurowicka, D.; Bucura, C.; Cooke, R.; Havelaar, A.H.

2010-01-01

This article presents methodology of applying probabilistic inversion in combination with expert judgment in priority setting problem. Experts rank scenarios according to severity. A linear multi-criteria analysis model underlying the expert preferences is posited. Using probabilistic inversion, a

Bone scintigraphy in prostate cancer: a French national survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boneu, A.; Corone, C.; Giammarile, F.; Lumbroso, J.; Resche, I.

1997-01-01

A national survey has been performed in France concerning bone scan in prostatic carcinoma. Its aim was to define methods of performing examinations, criteria of analysis of imaging results and indications of radionuclide imaging in initial evaluation and post-therapeutic follow-up of the disease. Replies are given and recommendations are proposed in order to improve imaging quality, optimize interpretation and rationalize prescription of bone scintigraphy in case of prostatic carcinoma. (authors)

A national survey on health department capacity for community engagement in emergency preparedness.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoch-Spana, Monica; Selck, Frederic W; Goldberg, Lisa A

2015-01-01

Limited systematic knowledge exists about how public health practitioners and policy makers can best strengthen community engagement in public health emergency preparedness ("CE-PHEP"), a top priority for US national health security. To investigate local health department (LHD) adoption of federally recommended participatory approaches to PHEP and to identify LHD organizational characteristics associated with more intense CE-PHEP. National survey in 2012 of LHDs using a self-administered Web-based questionnaire regarding LHD practices and resources for CE-PHEP ("The Community Engagement for Public Health Emergency Preparedness Survey"). Differences in survey responses were examined, and a multivariate analysis was used to test whether LHD organizational characteristics were associated with differences in CE-PHEP intensity. A randomized sample of 754 LHDs drawn from the 2565 LHDs that had been invited to participate in the 2010 National Profile of LHDs. Sample selection was stratified by the size of population served and geographic location. Emergency preparedness coordinators reporting on their respective LHDs. CE-PHEP intensity as measured with a scoring system that rated specific CE-PHEP practices by LHD according to the relative degrees of public participation and community capacity they represented. Survey response rate was 61%. The most common reported CE-PHEP activity was disseminating personal preparedness materials (90%); the least common was convening public forums on PHEP planning (22%). LHD characteristics most strongly associated with more intense CE-PHEP were having a formal CE-PHEP policy, allocating funds for CE-PHEP, having strong support from community-based organizations, and employing a coordinator with prior CE experience. Promising ways to engage community partners more fully in the PHEP enterprise are institutionalizing CE-PHEP objectives, employing sufficient and skilled staff, leveraging current community-based organization support, and

National Survey of American Attitudes on Substance Abuse VII: Teens, Parents and Siblings.

Science.gov (United States)

Columbia Univ., New York, NY. National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse.

The National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuses surveys have consistently found that the family is fundamental to keeping children away from tobacco, alcohol and illegal drugs. This 2002 survey keeps the focus on family and seeks to assess the impact of siblings on the likelihood of teen substance abuse. This year 1,000 teens ages 12 to 17…

Knowledge of medical students on National Health Care System: A French multicentric survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Feral-Pierssens, A-L; Jannot, A-S

2017-09-01

Education on national health care policy and costs is part of our medical curriculum explaining how our health care system works. Our aim was to measure French medical students' knowledge about national health care funding, costs and access and explore association with their educational and personal background. We developed a web-based survey exploring knowledge on national health care funding, access and costs through 19 items and measured success score as the number of correct answers. We also collected students' characteristics and public health training. The survey was sent to undergraduate medical students and residents from five medical universities between July and November 2015. A total of 1195 students from 5 medical universities responded to the survey. Most students underestimated the total amount of annual medical expenses, hospitalization costs and the proportion of the general population not benefiting from a complementary insurance. The knowledge score was not associated with medical education level. Three students' characteristics were significantly associated with a better knowledge score: male gender, older age, and underprivileged status. Medical students have important gaps in knowledge regarding national health care funding, coverage and costs. This knowledge was not associated with medical education level but with some of the students' personal characteristics. All these results are of great concern and should lead us to discussion and reflection about medical and public health training. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Estimates of dietary exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) from light metal packaging using food consumption and packaging usage data: a refined deterministic approach and a fully probabilistic (FACET) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldring, P K T; Castle, L; O'Mahony, C; Dixon, J

2014-01-01

The FACET tool is a probabilistic model to estimate exposure to chemicals in foodstuffs, originating from flavours, additives and food contact materials. This paper demonstrates the use of the FACET tool to estimate exposure to BPA (bisphenol A) from light metal packaging. For exposure to migrants from food packaging, FACET uses industry-supplied data on the occurrence of substances in the packaging, their concentrations and construction of the packaging, which were combined with data from a market research organisation and food consumption data supplied by national database managers. To illustrate the principles, UK packaging data were used together with consumption data from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) dietary survey for 19-64 year olds for a refined deterministic verification. The UK data were chosen mainly because the consumption surveys are detailed, data for UK packaging at a detailed level were available and, arguably, the UK population is composed of high consumers of packaged foodstuffs. Exposures were run for each food category that could give rise to BPA from light metal packaging. Consumer loyalty to a particular type of packaging, commonly referred to as packaging loyalty, was set. The BPA extraction levels used for the 15 types of coating chemistries that could release BPA were in the range of 0.00005-0.012 mg dm(-2). The estimates of exposure to BPA using FACET for the total diet were 0.0098 (mean) and 0.0466 (97.5th percentile) mg/person/day, corresponding to 0.00013 (mean) and 0.00059 (97.5th percentile) mg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) for consumers of foods packed in light metal packaging. This is well below the current EFSA (and other recognised bodies) TDI of 0.05 mg kg(-1) body weight day(-1). These probabilistic estimates were compared with estimates using a refined deterministic approach drawing on the same input data. The results from FACET for the mean, 95th and 97.5th percentile exposures to BPA lay between the

National nutrition surveys in Europe: a review on the current status in the 53 countries of the WHO European region.

Science.gov (United States)

Rippin, Holly L; Hutchinson, Jayne; Evans, Charlotte E L; Jewell, Jo; Breda, Joao J; Cade, Janet E

2018-01-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the coverage of national nutrition surveys in the 53 countries monitored by the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe and identify gaps in provision, (2) to describe relevant survey attributes and (3) to check whether energy and nutrients are reported with a view to providing information for evidence-based nutrition policy planning. Dietary survey information was gathered using three methods: (1) direct email to survey authors and other relevant contacts, (2) systematic review of literature databases and (3) general web-based searches. Survey characteristics relating to time frame, sampling and dietary methodology and nutrients reported were tabled from all relevant surveys found since 1990. Fifty-three countries of the WHO Regional Office for Europe, which have need for an overview of dietary surveys across the life course. European individuals (adults and children) in national diet surveys. A total of 109 nationally representative dietary surveys undertaken post-1990 were found across 34 countries. Of these, 78 surveys from 33 countries were found post-2000, and of these, 48 surveys from 27 countries included children and 60 surveys from 30 countries included adults. No nationally representative surveys were found for 19 of 53 countries, mainly from Central and Eastern Europe. Multiple 24hr recall and food diaries were the most common dietary assessment methods. Only 22 countries reported energy and nutrient intakes from post-2000 surveys; macronutrients were more widely reported than micronutrients. Less than two-thirds of WHO Europe countries have nationally representative diet surveys, mainly collected post-2000. The main availability gaps lie in Central and Eastern European countries, where nutrition policies may therefore lack an appropriate evidence base. Dietary methodological differences may limit the scope for inter-country comparisons.

National nutrition surveys in Europe: a review on the current status in the 53 countries of the WHO European region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holly L. Rippin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Objectives: The objectives of this study were (1 to determine the coverage of national nutrition surveys in the 53 countries monitored by the World Health Organization (WHO Regional Office for Europe and identify gaps in provision, (2 to describe relevant survey attributes and (3 to check whether energy and nutrients are reported with a view to providing information for evidence-based nutrition policy planning. Design: Dietary survey information was gathered using three methods: (1 direct email to survey authors and other relevant contacts, (2 systematic review of literature databases and (3 general web-based searches. Survey characteristics relating to time frame, sampling and dietary methodology and nutrients reported were tabled from all relevant surveys found since 1990. Setting: Fifty-three countries of the WHO Regional Office for Europe, which have need for an overview of dietary surveys across the life course. Subjects: European individuals (adults and children in national diet surveys. Results: A total of 109 nationally representative dietary surveys undertaken post-1990 were found across 34 countries. Of these, 78 surveys from 33 countries were found post-2000, and of these, 48 surveys from 27 countries included children and 60 surveys from 30 countries included adults. No nationally representative surveys were found for 19 of 53 countries, mainly from Central and Eastern Europe. Multiple 24hr recall and food diaries were the most common dietary assessment methods. Only 22 countries reported energy and nutrient intakes from post-2000 surveys; macronutrients were more widely reported than micronutrients. Conclusions: Less than two-thirds of WHO Europe countries have nationally representative diet surveys, mainly collected post-2000. The main availability gaps lie in Central and Eastern European countries, where nutrition policies may therefore lack an appropriate evidence base. Dietary methodological differences may limit the scope for

Setting Ambitious yet Achievable Targets Using Probabilistic Projections: Meeting Demand for Family Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Kantorová, Vladimíra; New, Jin Rou; Biddlecom, Ann; Alkema, Leontine

2017-09-01

In 2015, governments adopted 17 internationally agreed goals to ensure progress and well-being in the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. These new goals present a challenge for countries to set empirical targets that are ambitious yet achievable and that can account for different starting points and rates of progress. We used probabilistic projections of family planning indicators, based on a global data set and Bayesian hierarchical modeling, to generate illustrative targets at the country level. Targets were defined as the percentage of demand for family planning satisfied with modern contraceptive methods where a country has at least a 10 percent chance of reaching the target by 2030. National targets for 2030 ranged from below 50 percent of demand satisfied with modern contraceptives (for three countries in Africa) to above 90 percent (for 41 countries from all major areas of the world). The probabilistic approach also identified countries for which a global fixed target value of 75 percent demand satisfied was either unambitious or has little chance of achievement. We present the web-based Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) enabling national decision makers to compute and assess targets for meeting family planning demand. © 2017 The Population Council, Inc.

Applications of the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roglans, J.: Ragland, W.A.; Hill, D.J.

1993-01-01

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Experimental Breeder Reactor 11 (EBR-11), a Department of Energy (DOE) Category A research reactor, has recently been completed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and has been performed with close collaboration between PRA analysts and engineering and operations staff. A product of this Involvement of plant personnel has been a excellent acceptance of the PRA as a tool, which has already resulted In a variety of applications of the EBR-11 PRA. The EBR-11 has been used in support of plant hardware and procedure modifications and In new system design work. A new application in support of the refueling safety analysis will be completed in the near future

An aerial radiological survey of the Sandia National Laboratories and surrounding area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riedhauser, S.R.

1994-06-01

A team from the Remote Sensing Laboratory conducted an aerial radiological survey of the area surrounding the Sandia National Laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, New Mexico, during March and April 1993. The survey team measured the terrestrial gamma radiation at the site to determine the levels of natural and man-made radiation. This survey includes the areas covered by a previous survey in 1981. The results of the aerial survey show a background exposure rate which varies between 5 and 18 μR/h plus an approximate 6 μR/h contribution from cosmic rays. The major radioactive isotopes found in this survey were: potassium-40, thallium-208, bismuth-214, and actinium-228, which are all naturally-occurring isotopes, and cobalt-60, cesium-137, and excess amounts of thallium-208 and actinium-228, which are due to human actions in the survey area. In regions away from man-made activity, the exposure rates inferred from this survey's gamma ray measurements agree almost exactly with the exposure rates inferred from the 1981 survey. In addition to the aerial measurements, another survey team conducted in situ and soil sample radiation measurements at three sites within the survey perimeter. These ground-based measurements agree with the aerial measurements within ± 5%

Association between history of tuberculosis and vegetarianism from a nationally representative survey in India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P. Arora (Paul); P. Jha (Prabhat); N.J.D. Nagelkerke (Nico)

2011-01-01

textabstractA vegetarian diet has been implicated as a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) among South Asians in the United Kingdom. To explore whether this is also the case in India, we analysed data from the nationally representative National Family Health Survey-3 (2006) which collected information

Creating a Screening Measure of Health Literacy for the Health Information National Trends Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Champlin, Sara; Mackert, Michael

2016-03-01

Create a screening measure of health literacy for use with the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS). Participants completed a paper-based survey. Items from the survey were used to construct a health literacy screening measure. A population-based survey conducted in geographic areas of high and low minority frequency and in Central Appalachia. Two thousand nine hundred four English-speaking participants were included in this study: 66% white, 93% completed high school, mean age = 52.53 years (SD = 16.24). A health literacy screening measure was created using four items included in the HINTS survey. Scores could range from 0 (no questions affirmative/correct) to 4 (all questions answered affirmatively/correctly). Multiple regression analysis was used to determine whether demographic variables known to predict health literacy were indeed associated with the constructed health literacy screening measure. The weighted average health literacy score was 2.63 (SD = 1.00). Those who were nonwhite (p = .0005), were older (p literacy screening measure scores. This study highlights the need to assess health literacy in national surveys, but also serves as evidence that screening measures can be created within existing datasets to give researchers the ability to consider the impact of health literacy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of molar-incisor-hypomineralisation among children participating in the Dutch National Epidemiological Survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jasulaityte, L.; Weerheijm, K.L.; Veerkamp, J.S.

2008-01-01

Aim: This was to determine the prevalence of Molar-Incisor- Hypomineralisation (MIH) among children participating in the Dutch National Epidemiological Survey of 2003 and to compare the prevalence data with that found in the previous survey of 1999 when MIH was found in 9.7% of 11-year-old Dutch

National seasonal influenza vaccination survey in Europe, 2008.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Mereckiene, J

2008-10-23

A cross-sectional survey was undertaken with the European Union (EU) Member States and Norway and Iceland to describe seasonal influenza immunisation in the 2006-7 season, in particular to identify country-specific recommendations for risk groups, obtain vaccine uptake information and allow comparison with global recommendations. A standardised questionnaire was completed electronically by each country\\'s project gatekeeper. Of the 29 countries surveyed, 28 recommended seasonal influenza vaccination for older age groups (22 for those aged > 65 years), and in one country vaccine was recommended for all age groups. All countries recommended vaccinating patients with chronic pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases and most countries advised to immunise patients with haematologic or metabolic disorders (n=28), immunologic disorders (n=27) and renal disease (n=27), as well as residents of long-term care facilities (n=24). Most countries recommended vaccination for staff in hospitals (n=25), long-term care facilities (n=25) and outpatient clinics (n=23), and one-third had such recommendations for workers in essential (n=10), military (n=10) and veterinary services (n=10) and poultry industry (n=13). Eight countries recommended vaccine for pregnant women; and five advised to vaccinate children (with age limits ranging from 6 months to 5 years). Twenty countries measured influenza vaccine uptake among those aged > 65 years (range 1.8%-82.1%), seven reported uptake in healthcare workers (range 14%-48%) and seven assessed coverage in persons with underlying medical conditions (range 27.6%-75.2%). The data provided by this study can assist EU states to assess and compare their influenza vaccination programme performance with other countries. The information provides a comprehensive overview of policies and programmes and their outcomes and can be used to inform joint discussions on how the national policies in the EU might be standardised in the future to achieve optimal

National seasonal influenza vaccination survey in Europe, 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Mereckiene, J; Cotter, S; Nicoll, A; Levy-Bruhl, D; Ferro, A; Tridente, G; Zanoni, G; Berra, P; Salmaso, S; O'Flanagan, D; O Flanagan, D

2008-10-23

A cross-sectional survey was undertaken with the European Union (EU) Member States and Norway and Iceland to describe seasonal influenza immunisation in the 2006-7 season, in particular to identify country-specific recommendations for risk groups, obtain vaccine uptake information and allow comparison with global recommendations. A standardised questionnaire was completed electronically by each country's project gatekeeper. Of the 29 countries surveyed, 28 recommended seasonal influenza vaccination for older age groups (22 for those aged > 65 years), and in one country vaccine was recommended for all age groups. All countries recommended vaccinating patients with chronic pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases and most countries advised to immunise patients with haematologic or metabolic disorders (n=28), immunologic disorders (n=27) and renal disease (n=27), as well as residents of long-term care facilities (n=24). Most countries recommended vaccination for staff in hospitals (n=25), long-term care facilities (n=25) and outpatient clinics (n=23), and one-third had such recommendations for workers in essential (n=10), military (n=10) and veterinary services (n=10) and poultry industry (n=13). Eight countries recommended vaccine for pregnant women; and five advised to vaccinate children (with age limits ranging from 6 months to 5 years). Twenty countries measured influenza vaccine uptake among those aged > 65 years (range 1.8%-82.1%), seven reported uptake in healthcare workers (range 14%-48%) and seven assessed coverage in persons with underlying medical conditions (range 27.6%-75.2%). The data provided by this study can assist EU states to assess and compare their influenza vaccination programme performance with other countries. The information provides a comprehensive overview of policies and programmes and their outcomes and can be used to inform joint discussions on how the national policies in the EU might be standardised in the future to achieve optimal

Dental erosion -- changing prevalence? A review of British National childrens' surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Nunn, J H; Gordon, P H; Morris, A J; Pine, C M; Walker, A

2003-03-01

To investigate the change in the prevalence of dental erosion, over time, by a review of the data from the published national dental surveys of young people in the UK. A subsidiary objective was to investigate the relationship between erosion and possible associated risk factors. The review was based on cross-sectional prevalence studies incorporating a clinical dental examination and structured interviews. The data were collated from the 1993 UK childrens' dental health survey and the dental report of the two National Diet and Nutrition Surveys (NDNS) of children aged 1(1/2)-4(1/2) in 1992/3 and 4-18 years in 1996/7. The criteria used for data collection were comparable between the three different studies. Comparing the data from the different studies, the prevalence of erosion was seen to increase from the time of the childrens' dental health survey in 1993 and the NDNS study of 4-18-year-olds in 1996/7. There was a trend towards a higher prevalence of erosion in children aged between 3(1/2) and 4(1/2) and in those who consumed carbonated drinks on most days compared with toddlers consuming these drinks less often. Drinks overnight were associated with an increased prevalence of erosion. More 4-6-year-olds with reported symptoms of gastro-oesophageal reflux had erosion compared with symptom-free children. On multivariate analysis, the strongest independent association with erosion was geography, with children living in the North having twice the odds of having erosion compared with those in London and the South-east. Comparing prevalence data from cross-sectional national studies indicates that dental erosion increases between different age cohorts of young people over time. Dietary associations with erosion are present but weak. Similarly, there is an association apparent between erosion, symptoms of gastro-oesophageal reflux and socio-demographic variables such as region of domicile, social class, and receipt of social benefits.

Probabilistic cloning of three symmetric states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jimenez, O.; Bergou, J.; Delgado, A.

2010-01-01

We study the probabilistic cloning of three symmetric states. These states are defined by a single complex quantity, the inner product among them. We show that three different probabilistic cloning machines are necessary to optimally clone all possible families of three symmetric states. We also show that the optimal cloning probability of generating M copies out of one original can be cast as the quotient between the success probability of unambiguously discriminating one and M copies of symmetric states.

Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T.; Thacker, B.; Riha, D.; Leung, C. P.

1992-01-01

The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

Probabilistic Design of Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Ferreira, C.B.

2011-01-01

Wave energy has a large potential for contributing significantly to production of renewable energy. However, the wave energy sector is still not able to deliver cost competitive and reliable solutions. But the sector has already demonstrated several proofs of concepts. The design of wave energy...... devices is a new and expanding technical area where there is no tradition for probabilistic design—in fact very little full scale devices has been build to date, so it can be said that no design tradition really exists in this area. For this reason it is considered to be of great importance to develop...... and advocate for a probabilistic design approach, as it is assumed (in other areas this has been demonstrated) that this leads to more economical designs compared to designs based on deterministic methods. In the present paper a general framework for probabilistic design and reliability analysis of wave energy...

The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. Bartholmes

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information, from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services.

This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive forecasts.

Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS. Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts.

Some thoughts on the future of probabilistic structural design of nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stancampiano, P.A.

1978-01-01

This paper presents some views on the future role of probabilistic methods in the structural design of nuclear components. The existing deterministic design approach is discussed and compared to the probabilistic approach. Some of the objections to both deterministic and probabilistic design are listed. Extensive research and development activities are required to mature the probabilistic approach suficiently to make it cost-effective and competitive with current deterministic design practices. The required research activities deal with probabilistic methods development, more realistic casual failure mode models development, and statistical data models development. A quasi-probabilistic structural design approach is recommended which accounts for the random error in the design models. (Auth.)

Human reliability. Is probabilistic human reliability assessment possible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosneron Dupin, F.

1996-01-01

The possibility of carrying out Probabilistic Human Reliability Assessments (PHRA) is often doubted. Basing ourselves on the experience Electricite de France (EDF) has acquired in Probabilistic Safety Assessments for nuclear power plants, we show why the uncertainty of PHRA is very high. We then specify the limits of generic data and models for PHRA: very important factors are often poorly taken into account. To account for them, you need to have proper understanding of the actual context in which operators work. This demands surveys on the field (power plant and simulator) all of which must be carried out with behaviours science skills. The idea of estimating the probabilities of operator failure must not be abandoned, but probabilities must be given less importance, for they are only approximate indications. The qualitative aspects of PHRA should be given greater value (analysis process and qualitative insights). That is why the description (illustrated by case histories) of the main mechanisms of human behaviour, and of their manifestations in the nuclear power plant context (in terms of habits, attitudes, and informal methods and organization in particular) should be an important part of PHRA handbooks. These handbooks should also insist more on methods for gathering information on the actual context of the work of operators. Under these conditions, the PHRA should be possible and even desirable as a process for systematic analysis and assessment of human intervention. (author). 24 refs, 2 figs, 1 tab

Human reliability. Is probabilistic human reliability assessment possible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mosneron Dupin, F

1997-12-31

The possibility of carrying out Probabilistic Human Reliability Assessments (PHRA) is often doubted. Basing ourselves on the experience Electricite de France (EDF) has acquired in Probabilistic Safety Assessments for nuclear power plants, we show why the uncertainty of PHRA is very high. We then specify the limits of generic data and models for PHRA: very important factors are often poorly taken into account. To account for them, you need to have proper understanding of the actual context in which operators work. This demands surveys on the field (power plant and simulator) all of which must be carried out with behaviours science skills. The idea of estimating the probabilities of operator failure must not be abandoned, but probabilities must be given less importance, for they are only approximate indications. The qualitative aspects of PHRA should be given greater value (analysis process and qualitative insights). That is why the description (illustrated by case histories) of the main mechanisms of human behaviour, and of their manifestations in the nuclear power plant context (in terms of habits, attitudes, and informal methods and organization in particular) should be an important part of PHRA handbooks. These handbooks should also insist more on methods for gathering information on the actual context of the work of operators. Under these conditions, the PHRA should be possible and even desirable as a process for systematic analysis and assessment of human intervention. (author). 24 refs, 2 figs, 1 tab.

Probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants; Phases 2-4. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bengtsson, L.; Knochenhauer, M. (Scandpower AB (Sweden)); Holmberg, J.-E.; Rossi, J. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland))

2011-05-15

Safety goals are defined in different ways in different countries and also used differently. Many countries are presently developing them in connection to the transfer to risk-informed regulation of both operating nuclear power plants (NPP) and new designs. However, it is far from self-evident how probabilistic safety criteria should be defined and used. On one hand, experience indicates that safety goals are valuable tools for the interpretation of results from a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and they tend to enhance the realism of a risk assessment. On the other hand, strict use of probabilistic criteria is usually avoided. A major problem is the large number of different uncertainties in a PSA model, which makes it difficult to demonstrate the compliance with a probabilistic criterion. Further, it has been seen that PSA results can change a lot over time due to scope extensions, revised operating experience data, method development, changes in system requirements, or increases of level of detail, mostly leading to an increase of the frequency of the calculated risk. This can cause a problem of consistency in the judgments. This report presents the results from the second, third and fourth phases of the project (2007-2009), which have dealt with providing guidance related to the resolution of some specific problems, such as the problem of consistency in judgement, comparability of safety goals used in different industries, the relationship between criteria on different levels, and relations between criteria for level 2 and 3 PSA. In parallel, additional context information has been provided. This was achieved by extending the international overview by contributing to and benefiting from a survey on PSA safety criteria which was initiated in 2006 within the OECD/NEA Working Group Risk. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by

Probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants; Phases 2-4. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, L.; Knochenhauer, M.; Holmberg, J.-E.; Rossi, J.

2011-05-01

Safety goals are defined in different ways in different countries and also used differently. Many countries are presently developing them in connection to the transfer to risk-informed regulation of both operating nuclear power plants (NPP) and new designs. However, it is far from self-evident how probabilistic safety criteria should be defined and used. On one hand, experience indicates that safety goals are valuable tools for the interpretation of results from a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and they tend to enhance the realism of a risk assessment. On the other hand, strict use of probabilistic criteria is usually avoided. A major problem is the large number of different uncertainties in a PSA model, which makes it difficult to demonstrate the compliance with a probabilistic criterion. Further, it has been seen that PSA results can change a lot over time due to scope extensions, revised operating experience data, method development, changes in system requirements, or increases of level of detail, mostly leading to an increase of the frequency of the calculated risk. This can cause a problem of consistency in the judgments. This report presents the results from the second, third and fourth phases of the project (2007-2009), which have dealt with providing guidance related to the resolution of some specific problems, such as the problem of consistency in judgement, comparability of safety goals used in different industries, the relationship between criteria on different levels, and relations between criteria for level 2 and 3 PSA. In parallel, additional context information has been provided. This was achieved by extending the international overview by contributing to and benefiting from a survey on PSA safety criteria which was initiated in 2006 within the OECD/NEA Working Group Risk. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by

P-CARES 2.0.0, Probabilistic Computer Analysis for Rapid Evaluation of Structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: P-CARES 2.0.0 (Probabilistic Computer Analysis for Rapid Evaluation of Structures) was developed for NRC staff use to determine the validity and accuracy of the analysis methods used by various utilities for structural safety evaluations of nuclear power plants. P-CARES provides the capability to effectively evaluate the probabilistic seismic response using simplified soil and structural models and to quickly check the validity and/or accuracy of the SSI data received from applicants and licensees. The code is organized in a modular format with the basic modules of the system performing static, seismic, and nonlinear analysis. 2 - Methods: P-CARES is an update of the CARES program developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory during the 1980's. A major improvement is the enhanced analysis capability in which a probabilistic algorithm has been implemented to perform the probabilistic site response and soil-structure interaction (SSI) analyses. This is accomplished using several sampling techniques such as the Latin Hypercube sampling (LHC), engineering LHC, the Fekete Point Set method, and also the traditional Monte Carlo simulation. This new feature enhances the site response and SSI analysis such that the effect of uncertainty in local site soil properties can now be quantified. Another major addition to P-CARES is a graphical user interface (GUI) which significantly improves the performance of P-Cares in terms of the inter-relations among different functions of the program, and facilitates the input/output processing and execution management. It also provides many user friendly features that would allow an analyst to quickly develop insights from the analysis results. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: None noted

Probabilistic seasonal Forecasts to deterministic Farm Leve Decisions: Innovative Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mwangi, M. W.

2015-12-01

Climate change and vulnerability are major challenges in ensuring household food security. Climate information services have the potential to cushion rural households from extreme climate risks. However, most the probabilistic nature of climate information products is not easily understood by majority of smallholder farmers. Despite the probabilistic nature, climate information have proved to be a valuable climate risk adaptation strategy at the farm level. This calls for innovative ways to help farmers understand and apply climate information services to inform their farm level decisions. The study endeavored to co-design and test appropriate innovation systems for climate information services uptake and scale up necessary for achieving climate risk development. In addition it also determined the conditions necessary to support the effective performance of the proposed innovation system. Data and information sources included systematic literature review, secondary sources, government statistics, focused group discussions, household surveys and semi-structured interviews. Data wasanalyzed using both quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques. Quantitative data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative techniques, which involved establishing the categories and themes, relationships/patterns and conclusions in line with the study objectives. Sustainable livelihood, reduced household poverty and climate change resilience were the impact that resulted from the study.

Cooperation in an evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma game with probabilistic strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Haihong; Dai Qionglin; Cheng Hongyan; Yang Junzhong

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Introducing probabilistic strategies instead of the pure C/D in the PDG. ► The strategies patterns depends on interaction structures and updating rules. ► There exists an optimal increment of the probabilistic strategy. - Abstract: In this work, we investigate an evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma game in structured populations with probabilistic strategies instead of the pure strategies of cooperation and defection. We explore the model in details by considering different strategy update rules and different population structures. We find that the distribution of probabilistic strategies patterns is dependent on both the interaction structures and the updating rules. We also find that, when an individual updates her strategy by increasing or decreasing her probabilistic strategy a certain amount towards that of her opponent, there exists an optimal increment of the probabilistic strategy at which the cooperator frequency reaches its maximum.

Probabilistic liver atlas construction.

Science.gov (United States)

Dura, Esther; Domingo, Juan; Ayala, Guillermo; Marti-Bonmati, Luis; Goceri, E

2017-01-13

Anatomical atlases are 3D volumes or shapes representing an organ or structure of the human body. They contain either the prototypical shape of the object of interest together with other shapes representing its statistical variations (statistical atlas) or a probability map of belonging to the object (probabilistic atlas). Probabilistic atlases are mostly built with simple estimations only involving the data at each spatial location. A new method for probabilistic atlas construction that uses a generalized linear model is proposed. This method aims to improve the estimation of the probability to be covered by the liver. Furthermore, all methods to build an atlas involve previous coregistration of the sample of shapes available. The influence of the geometrical transformation adopted for registration in the quality of the final atlas has not been sufficiently investigated. The ability of an atlas to adapt to a new case is one of the most important quality criteria that should be taken into account. The presented experiments show that some methods for atlas construction are severely affected by the previous coregistration step. We show the good performance of the new approach. Furthermore, results suggest that extremely flexible registration methods are not always beneficial, since they can reduce the variability of the atlas and hence its ability to give sensible values of probability when used as an aid in segmentation of new cases.