Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken
2012-11-01
Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.
Using the confidence interval confidently.
Hazra, Avijit
2017-10-01
Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.
Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals
Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2014-01-01
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more
Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.
Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2014-10-01
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.
Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict
Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe
2016-01-01
As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…
Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...
Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions
Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin
2013-01-01
The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…
Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations
Navruz, Bilgin; Delen, Erhan
2014-01-01
In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...
Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures
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Ionut Bebu
2016-06-01
Full Text Available For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT, and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates.
Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.
2004-01-01
The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication
Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005
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Richard D. Morey
2008-09-01
Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.
Learning about confidence intervals with software R
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gariela Gonçalves
2013-08-01
Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost
2006-03-01
Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.
Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.
Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H
2015-06-01
Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Empirical Risk Minimization
Wang, Yue; Kifer, Daniel; Lee, Jaewoo
2018-01-01
The process of data mining with differential privacy produces results that are affected by two types of noise: sampling noise due to data collection and privacy noise that is designed to prevent the reconstruction of sensitive information. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing confidence intervals for the parameters of a variety of differentially private machine learning models. The algorithms can provide confidence intervals that satisfy differential privacy (as well as the mor...
Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.
Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B
2017-02-01
With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.
Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urbatsch, T.J.
1995-11-01
MCNP's criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP's three k eff estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k eff estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered
Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations
Bonett, Douglas G.
2006-01-01
Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…
Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal's gamma coefficient
van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.
2015-01-01
This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman-Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the
Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models
Wagler, Amy E.
2014-01-01
Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…
Parametric change point estimation, testing and confidence interval ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In many applications like finance, industry and medicine, it is important to consider that the model parameters may undergo changes at unknown moment in time. This paper deals with estimation, testing and confidence interval of a change point for a univariate variable which is assumed to be normally distributed. To detect ...
On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation
Tegenfeldt, Fredrik
2005-01-01
In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...
Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals
Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg
2017-01-01
Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.
Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2017-09-28
Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the ^{235}U(n, f) and ^{239}Pu (n, f) cross sections.
Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.
Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang
2017-01-01
Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.
Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.
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Téllez A.
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.
On a linear method in bootstrap confidence intervals
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Andrea Pallini
2007-10-01
Full Text Available A linear method for the construction of asymptotic bootstrap confidence intervals is proposed. We approximate asymptotically pivotal and non-pivotal quantities, which are smooth functions of means of n independent and identically distributed random variables, by using a sum of n independent smooth functions of the same analytical form. Errors are of order Op(n-3/2 and Op(n-2, respectively. The linear method allows a straightforward approximation of bootstrap cumulants, by considering the set of n independent smooth functions as an original random sample to be resampled with replacement.
Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Using Monte Carlo Simulations
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Roberto S. Flowers-Cano
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Design of hydraulic works requires the estimation of design hydrological events by statistical inference from a probability distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compared coverage of confidence intervals constructed with four bootstrap techniques: percentile bootstrap (BP, bias-corrected bootstrap (BC, accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap (BCA and a modified version of the standard bootstrap (MSB. Different simulation scenarios were analyzed. In some cases, the mother distribution function was fit to the random samples that were generated. In other cases, a distribution function different to the mother distribution was fit to the samples. When the fitted distribution had three parameters, and was the same as the mother distribution, the intervals constructed with the four techniques had acceptable coverage. However, the bootstrap techniques failed in several of the cases in which the fitted distribution had two parameters.
Confidence interval procedures for Monte Carlo transport simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pederson, S.P.
1997-01-01
The problem of obtaining valid confidence intervals based on estimates from sampled distributions using Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes such as MCNP is examined. Such intervals can cover the true parameter of interest at a lower than nominal rate if the sampled distribution is extremely right-skewed by large tallies. Modifications to the standard theory of confidence intervals are discussed and compared with some existing heuristics, including batched means normality tests. Two new types of diagnostics are introduced to assess whether the conditions of central limit theorem-type results are satisfied: the relative variance of the variance determines whether the sample size is sufficiently large, and estimators of the slope of the right tail of the distribution are used to indicate the number of moments that exist. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the relationship between various diagnostics and coverage rates and to find sample-based quantities useful in indicating when intervals are expected to be valid. Simulated tally distributions are chosen to emulate behavior seen in difficult particle transport problems. Measures of variation in the sample variance s 2 are found to be much more effective than existing methods in predicting when coverage will be near nominal rates. Batched means tests are found to be overly conservative in this regard. A simple but pathological MCNP problem is presented as an example of false convergence using existing heuristics. The new methods readily detect the false convergence and show that the results of the problem, which are a factor of 4 too small, should not be used. Recommendations are made for applying these techniques in practice, using the statistical output currently produced by MCNP
Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urbatsch, T.J.
1995-01-01
MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for Calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov Theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the individual estimator with the smallest variance. The importance of MCNP's batch statistics is demonstrated by an investigation of the effects of individual estimator variance bias on the combination of estimators, both heuristically with the analytical study and emprically with MCNP
The 95% confidence intervals of error rates and discriminant coefficients
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Shuichi Shinmura
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Fisher proposed a linear discriminant function (Fisher’s LDF. From 1971, we analysed electrocardiogram (ECG data in order to develop the diagnostic logic between normal and abnormal symptoms by Fisher’s LDF and a quadratic discriminant function (QDF. Our four years research was inferior to the decision tree logic developed by the medical doctor. After this experience, we discriminated many data and found four problems of the discriminant analysis. A revised Optimal LDF by Integer Programming (Revised IP-OLDF based on the minimum number of misclassification (minimum NM criterion resolves three problems entirely [13, 18]. In this research, we discuss fourth problem of the discriminant analysis. There are no standard errors (SEs of the error rate and discriminant coefficient. We propose a k-fold crossvalidation method. This method offers a model selection technique and a 95% confidence intervals (C.I. of error rates and discriminant coefficients.
GENERALISED MODEL BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN TWO STAGE CLUSTER SAMPLING
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Christopher Ouma Onyango
2010-09-01
Full Text Available Chambers and Dorfman (2002 constructed bootstrap confidence intervals in model based estimation for finite population totals assuming that auxiliary values are available throughout a target population and that the auxiliary values are independent. They also assumed that the cluster sizes are known throughout the target population. We now extend to two stage sampling in which the cluster sizes are known only for the sampled clusters, and we therefore predict the unobserved part of the population total. Jan and Elinor (2008 have done similar work, but unlike them, we use a general model, in which the auxiliary values are not necessarily independent. We demonstrate that the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator and its coverage rates are better than those constructed under the model assisted local polynomial regression model.
Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urbatsch, T.J.
1995-01-01
The Monte Carlo code MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the estimator with the smallest variance. Empirically, MCNP examples for several physical systems demonstrate the three-combined estimator's superiority over each of the three individual estimators and its correct coverage rates. Additionally, the importance of MCNP's statistical checks is demonstrated
Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval
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Aeyoung Kim
2017-02-01
Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.
Confidence Intervals for Asbestos Fiber Counts: Approximate Negative Binomial Distribution.
Bartley, David; Slaven, James; Harper, Martin
2017-03-01
The negative binomial distribution is adopted for analyzing asbestos fiber counts so as to account for both the sampling errors in capturing only a finite number of fibers and the inevitable human variation in identifying and counting sampled fibers. A simple approximation to this distribution is developed for the derivation of quantiles and approximate confidence limits. The success of the approximation depends critically on the use of Stirling's expansion to sufficient order, on exact normalization of the approximating distribution, on reasonable perturbation of quantities from the normal distribution, and on accurately approximating sums by inverse-trapezoidal integration. Accuracy of the approximation developed is checked through simulation and also by comparison to traditional approximate confidence intervals in the specific case that the negative binomial distribution approaches the Poisson distribution. The resulting statistics are shown to relate directly to early research into the accuracy of asbestos sampling and analysis. Uncertainty in estimating mean asbestos fiber concentrations given only a single count is derived. Decision limits (limits of detection) and detection limits are considered for controlling false-positive and false-negative detection assertions and are compared to traditional limits computed assuming normal distributions. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.
Number of core samples: Mean concentrations and confidence intervals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jensen, L.; Cromar, R.D.; Wilmarth, S.R.; Heasler, P.G.
1995-01-01
This document provides estimates of how well the mean concentration of analytes are known as a function of the number of core samples, composite samples, and replicate analyses. The estimates are based upon core composite data from nine recently sampled single-shell tanks. The results can be used when determining the number of core samples needed to ''characterize'' the waste from similar single-shell tanks. A standard way of expressing uncertainty in the estimate of a mean is with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The authors investigate how the width of a 95% CI on the mean concentration decreases as the number of observations increase. Specifically, the tables and figures show how the relative half-width (RHW) of a 95% CI decreases as the number of core samples increases. The RHW of a CI is a unit-less measure of uncertainty. The general conclusions are as follows: (1) the RHW decreases dramatically as the number of core samples is increased, the decrease is much smaller when the number of composited samples or the number of replicate analyses are increase; (2) if the mean concentration of an analyte needs to be estimated with a small RHW, then a large number of core samples is required. The estimated number of core samples given in the tables and figures were determined by specifying different sizes of the RHW. Four nominal sizes were examined: 10%, 25%, 50%, and 100% of the observed mean concentration. For a majority of analytes the number of core samples required to achieve an accuracy within 10% of the mean concentration is extremely large. In many cases, however, two or three core samples is sufficient to achieve a RHW of approximately 50 to 100%. Because many of the analytes in the data have small concentrations, this level of accuracy may be satisfactory for some applications
Confidence intervals for experiments with background and small numbers of events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bruechle, W.
2003-01-01
Methods to find a confidence interval for Poisson distributed variables are illuminated, especially for the case of poor statistics. The application of 'central' and 'highest probability density' confidence intervals is compared for the case of low count-rates. A method to determine realistic estimates of the confidence intervals for Poisson distributed variables affected with background, and their ratios, is given. (orig.)
Confidence intervals for experiments with background and small numbers of events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bruechle, W.
2002-07-01
Methods to find a confidence interval for Poisson distributed variables are illuminated, especially for the case of poor statistics. The application of 'central' and 'highest probability density' confidence intervals is compared for the case of low count-rates. A method to determine realistic estimates of the confidence intervals for Poisson distributed variables affected with background, and their ratios, is given. (orig.)
An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.
Capraro, Mary Margaret
This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…
Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.
2016-12-01
Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.
A note on Nonparametric Confidence Interval for a Shift Parameter ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The method is illustrated using the Cauchy distribution as a location model. The kernel-based method is found to have a shorter interval for the shift parameter between two Cauchy distributions than the one based on the Mann-Whitney test statistic. Keywords: Best Asymptotic Normal; Cauchy distribution; Kernel estimates; ...
Bootstrap confidence intervals for three-way methods
Kiers, Henk A.L.
Results from exploratory three-way analysis techniques such as CANDECOMP/PARAFAC and Tucker3 analysis are usually presented without giving insight into uncertainties due to sampling. Here a bootstrap procedure is proposed that produces percentile intervals for all output parameters. Special
Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals
Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim
2018-01-01
Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…
Estimating confidence intervals in predicted responses for oscillatory biological models.
St John, Peter C; Doyle, Francis J
2013-07-29
The dynamics of gene regulation play a crucial role in a cellular control: allowing the cell to express the right proteins to meet changing needs. Some needs, such as correctly anticipating the day-night cycle, require complicated oscillatory features. In the analysis of gene regulatory networks, mathematical models are frequently used to understand how a network's structure enables it to respond appropriately to external inputs. These models typically consist of a set of ordinary differential equations, describing a network of biochemical reactions, and unknown kinetic parameters, chosen such that the model best captures experimental data. However, since a model's parameter values are uncertain, and since dynamic responses to inputs are highly parameter-dependent, it is difficult to assess the confidence associated with these in silico predictions. In particular, models with complex dynamics - such as oscillations - must be fit with computationally expensive global optimization routines, and cannot take advantage of existing measures of identifiability. Despite their difficulty to model mathematically, limit cycle oscillations play a key role in many biological processes, including cell cycling, metabolism, neuron firing, and circadian rhythms. In this study, we employ an efficient parameter estimation technique to enable a bootstrap uncertainty analysis for limit cycle models. Since the primary role of systems biology models is the insight they provide on responses to rate perturbations, we extend our uncertainty analysis to include first order sensitivity coefficients. Using a literature model of circadian rhythms, we show how predictive precision is degraded with decreasing sample points and increasing relative error. Additionally, we show how this method can be used for model discrimination by comparing the output identifiability of two candidate model structures to published literature data. Our method permits modellers of oscillatory systems to confidently
The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.
Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail
2017-06-01
There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.
Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.
Wright, Daniel B
2007-02-01
Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.
Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution
Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.
2010-01-01
A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…
Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model
Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan
2018-01-01
Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…
Binomial confidence intervals for testing non-inferiority or superiority: a practitioner's dilemma.
Pradhan, Vivek; Evans, John C; Banerjee, Tathagata
2016-08-01
In testing for non-inferiority or superiority in a single arm study, the confidence interval of a single binomial proportion is frequently used. A number of such intervals are proposed in the literature and implemented in standard software packages. Unfortunately, use of different intervals leads to conflicting conclusions. Practitioners thus face a serious dilemma in deciding which one to depend on. Is there a way to resolve this dilemma? We address this question by investigating the performances of ten commonly used intervals of a single binomial proportion, in the light of two criteria, viz., coverage and expected length of the interval. © The Author(s) 2013.
Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.
Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y
2012-08-01
Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tudor DRUGAN
2003-08-01
Full Text Available The aim of the paper was to present the usefulness of the binomial distribution in studying of the contingency tables and the problems of approximation to normality of binomial distribution (the limits, advantages, and disadvantages. The classification of the medical keys parameters reported in medical literature and expressing them using the contingency table units based on their mathematical expressions restrict the discussion of the confidence intervals from 34 parameters to 9 mathematical expressions. The problem of obtaining different information starting with the computed confidence interval for a specified method, information like confidence intervals boundaries, percentages of the experimental errors, the standard deviation of the experimental errors and the deviation relative to significance level was solves through implementation in PHP programming language of original algorithms. The cases of expression, which contain two binomial variables, were separately treated. An original method of computing the confidence interval for the case of two-variable expression was proposed and implemented. The graphical representation of the expression of two binomial variables for which the variation domain of one of the variable depend on the other variable was a real problem because the most of the software used interpolation in graphical representation and the surface maps were quadratic instead of triangular. Based on an original algorithm, a module was implements in PHP in order to represent graphically the triangular surface plots. All the implementation described above was uses in computing the confidence intervals and estimating their performance for binomial distributions sample sizes and variable.
The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution
Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.
2007-12-01
The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet
2005-01-01
The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi Wang
2016-12-01
Full Text Available With the levels of confidence and system complexity, interval forecasts and entropy analysis can deliver more information than point forecasts. In this paper, we take receivers’ demands as our starting point, use the trade-off model between accuracy and informativeness as the criterion to construct the optimal confidence interval, derive the theoretical formula of the optimal confidence interval and propose a practical and efficient algorithm based on entropy theory and complexity theory. In order to improve the estimation precision of the error distribution, the point prediction errors are STRATIFIED according to prices and the complexity of the system; the corresponding prediction error samples are obtained by the prices stratification; and the error distributions are estimated by the kernel function method and the stability of the system. In a stable and orderly environment for price forecasting, we obtain point prediction error samples by the weighted local region and RBF (Radial basis function neural network methods, forecast the intervals of the soybean meal and non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organism soybean continuous futures closing prices and implement unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage tests for the simulation results. The empirical results are compared from various interval evaluation indicators, different levels of noise, several target confidence levels and different point prediction methods. The analysis shows that the optimal interval construction method is better than the equal probability method and the shortest interval method and has good anti-noise ability with the reduction of system entropy; the hierarchical estimation error method can obtain higher accuracy and better interval estimation than the non-hierarchical method in a stable system.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU
2004-08-01
Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.
Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal’s gamma coefficient
van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.
2015-01-01
This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman–Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the
The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.
Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica
2014-05-01
The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.
Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models
Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz
2013-01-01
The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…
WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.
Grech, Victor
2018-03-01
The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Beyene Joseph
2005-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The location quotient (LQ ratio, a measure designed to quantify and benchmark the degree of relative concentration of an activity in the analysis of area localization, has received considerable attention in the geographic and economics literature. This index can also naturally be applied in the context of population health to quantify and compare health outcomes across spatial domains. However, one commonly observed limitation of LQ is its widespread use as only a point estimate without an accompanying confidence interval. Methods In this paper we present statistical methods that can be used to construct confidence intervals for location quotients. The delta and Fieller's methods are generic approaches for a ratio parameter and the generalized linear modelling framework is a useful re-parameterization particularly helpful for generating profile-likelihood based confidence intervals for the location quotient. A simulation experiment is carried out to assess the performance of each of the analytic approaches and a health utilization data set is used for illustration. Results Both the simulation results as well as the findings from the empirical data show that the different analytical methods produce very similar confidence limits for location quotients. When incidence of outcome is not rare and sample sizes are large, the confidence limits are almost indistinguishable. The confidence limits from the generalized linear model approach might be preferable in small sample situations. Conclusion LQ is a useful measure which allows quantification and comparison of health and other outcomes across defined geographical regions. It is a very simple index to compute and has a straightforward interpretation. Reporting this estimate with appropriate confidence limits using methods presented in this paper will make the measure particularly attractive for policy and decision makers.
Smadi, Mahmoud A.
2012-12-06
In this paper, we derived an efficient simulation method to evaluate the error rate of wireless communication system. Coherent binary phase-shift keying system is considered with imperfect channel phase recovery. The results presented demonstrate the system performance under very realistic Nakagami-m fading and additive white Gaussian noise channel. On the other hand, the accuracy of the obtained results is verified through running the simulation under a good confidence interval reliability of 95 %. We see that as the number of simulation runs N increases, the simulated error rate becomes closer to the actual one and the confidence interval difference reduces. Hence our results are expected to be of significant practical use for such scenarios. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tronchin, Lamberto; Fabbri, Kristian
2012-01-01
The Directive 2002/91/CE introduced the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC), an energy policy tool. The aim of the EPC is to inform building buyers about the energy performance and energy costs of buildings. The EPCs represent a specific energy policy tool to orient the building sector and real-estate markets toward higher energy efficiency buildings. The effectiveness of the EPC depends on two factors: •The accuracy of energy performance evaluation made by independent experts. •The capability of the energy classification and of the scale of energy performance to control the energy index fluctuations. In this paper, the results of a case study located in Italy are shown. In this example, 162 independent technicians on energy performance of building evaluation have studied the same building. The results reveal which part of confidence intervals is dependent on software misunderstanding and that the energy classification ranges are able to tolerate the fluctuation of energy indices. The example was chosen in accordance with the legislation of the Emilia-Romagna Region on Energy Efficiency of Buildings. Following these results, some thermo-economic evaluation related to building and energy labelling are illustrated, as the EPC, which is an energy policy tool for the real-estate market and building sector to find a way to build or retrofit an energy efficiency building. - Highlights: ► Evaluation of the accuracy of energy performance of buildings in relation with the knowledge of independent experts. ► Round robin test based on 162 case studies on the confidence intervals expressed by independent experts. ► Statistical considerations between the confidence intervals expressed by independent experts and energy simulation software. ► Relation between “proper class” in energy classification of buildings and confidence intervals of independent experts.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Shilane
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iwi, G.; Millard, R.K.; Palmer, A.M.; Preece, A.W.; Saunders, M.
1999-01-01
Bootstrap resampling provides a versatile and reliable statistical method for estimating the accuracy of quantities which are calculated from experimental data. It is an empirically based method, in which large numbers of simulated datasets are generated by computer from existing measurements, so that approximate confidence intervals of the derived quantities may be obtained by direct numerical evaluation. A simple introduction to the method is given via a detailed example of estimating 95% confidence intervals for cumulated activity in the thyroid following injection of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate using activity-time data from 23 subjects. The application of the approach to estimating confidence limits for the self-dose to the kidney following injection of 99m Tc-DTPA organ imaging agent based on uptake data from 19 subjects is also illustrated. Results are then given for estimates of doses to the foetus following administration of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate for clinical reasons during pregnancy, averaged over 25 subjects. The bootstrap method is well suited for applications in radiation dosimetry including uncertainty, reliability and sensitivity analysis of dose coefficients in biokinetic models, but it can also be applied in a wide range of other biomedical situations. (author)
A Note on Confidence Interval for the Power of the One Sample Test
A. Wong
2010-01-01
In introductory statistics texts, the power of the test of a one-sample mean when the variance is known is widely discussed. However, when the variance is unknown, the power of the Student's -test is seldom mentioned. In this note, a general methodology for obtaining inference concerning a scalar parameter of interest of any exponential family model is proposed. The method is then applied to the one-sample mean problem with unknown variance to obtain a ( 1 − ) 100% confidence interval for...
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Krištoufek, Ladislav
4/2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 236-250 ISSN 1802-4696 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 118310 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : rescaled range analysis * detrended fluctuation analysis * Hurst exponent * long-range dependence Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/kristoufek-rescaled range analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis finite sample properties and confidence intervals.pdf
A NEW METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CPM BASED ON FUZZY DATA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bahram Sadeghpour Gildeh
2011-06-01
Full Text Available A measurement control system ensures that measuring equipment and measurement processes are fit for their intended use and its importance in achieving product quality objectives. In most real life applications, the observations are fuzzy. In some cases specification limits (SLs are not precise numbers and they are expressed in fuzzy terms, s o that the classical capability indices could not be applied. In this paper we obtain 100(1 - α% fuzzy confidence interval for C pm fuzzy process capability index, where instead of precise quality we have two membership functions for specification limits.
Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.
Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng
2009-12-01
The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.
Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R
2008-07-01
Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.
Confidence interval of intrinsic optimum temperature estimated using thermodynamic SSI model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Takaya Ikemoto; Issei Kurahashi; Pei-Jian Shi
2013-01-01
The intrinsic optimum temperature for the development of ectotherms is one of the most important factors not only for their physiological processes but also for ecological and evolutional processes.The Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto (SSI) model succeeded in defining the temperature that can thermodynamically meet the condition that at a particular temperature the probability of an active enzyme reaching its maximum activity is realized.Previously,an algorithm was developed by Ikemoto (Tropical malaria does not mean hot environments.Journal of Medical Entomology,45,963-969) to estimate model parameters,but that program was computationally very time consuming.Now,investigators can use the SSI model more easily because a full automatic computer program was designed by Shi et al.(A modified program for estimating the parameters of the SSI model.Environmental Entomology,40,462-469).However,the statistical significance of the point estimate of the intrinsic optimum temperature for each ectotherm has not yet been determined.Here,we provided a new method for calculating the confidence interval of the estimated intrinsic optimum temperature by modifying the approximate bootstrap confidence intervals method.For this purpose,it was necessary to develop a new program for a faster estimation of the parameters in the SSI model,which we have also done.
Mishra, D K; Dolan, K D; Yang, L
2008-01-01
Degradation of nutraceuticals in low- and intermediate-moisture foods heated at high temperature (>100 degrees C) is difficult to model because of the nonisothermal condition. Isothermal experiments above 100 degrees C are difficult to design because they require high pressure and small sample size in sealed containers. Therefore, a nonisothermal method was developed to estimate the thermal degradation kinetic parameter of nutraceuticals and determine the confidence intervals for the parameters and the predicted Y (concentration). Grape pomace at 42% moisture content (wb) was heated in sealed 202 x 214 steel cans in a steam retort at 126.7 degrees C for > 30 min. Can center temperature was measured by thermocouple and predicted using Comsol software. Thermal conductivity (k) and specific heat (C(p)) were estimated as quadratic functions of temperature using Comsol and nonlinear regression. The k and C(p) functions were then used to predict temperature inside the grape pomace during retorting. Similar heating experiments were run at different time-temperature treatments from 8 to 25 min for kinetic parameter estimation. Anthocyanin concentration in the grape pomace was measured using HPLC. Degradation rate constant (k(110 degrees C)) and activation energy (E(a)) were estimated using nonlinear regression. The thermophysical properties estimates at 100 degrees C were k = 0.501 W/m degrees C, Cp= 3600 J/kg and the kinetic parameters were k(110 degrees C)= 0.0607/min and E(a)= 65.32 kJ/mol. The 95% confidence intervals for the parameters and the confidence bands and prediction bands for anthocyanin retention were plotted. These methods are useful for thermal processing design for nutraceutical products.
Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher; Kumaraswamy, Lalith; Podgorsak, Matthew B. [Department of Physics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14260 (United States) and Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Canis Lupus LLC, Merrimac, Wisconsin 53561 (United States); Department of Biostatistics, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Molecular and Cellular Biophysics and Biochemistry, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States) and Department of Physiology and Biophysics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14214 (United States)
2011-11-15
Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics of various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization
Brand, Andrew; Bradley, Michael T
2016-02-01
Confidence interval ( CI) widths were calculated for reported Cohen's d standardized effect sizes and examined in two automated surveys of published psychological literature. The first survey reviewed 1,902 articles from Psychological Science. The second survey reviewed a total of 5,169 articles from across the following four APA journals: Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, and Developmental Psychology. The median CI width for d was greater than 1 in both surveys. Hence, CI widths were, as Cohen (1994) speculated, embarrassingly large. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that CI widths varied across psychological research areas and that CI widths were not discernably decreasing over time. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed along with ways of reducing the CI widths and thus improving precision of effect size estimation.
A Note on Confidence Interval for the Power of the One Sample Test
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Wong
2010-01-01
Full Text Available In introductory statistics texts, the power of the test of a one-sample mean when the variance is known is widely discussed. However, when the variance is unknown, the power of the Student's -test is seldom mentioned. In this note, a general methodology for obtaining inference concerning a scalar parameter of interest of any exponential family model is proposed. The method is then applied to the one-sample mean problem with unknown variance to obtain a (1−100% confidence interval for the power of the Student's -test that detects the difference (−0. The calculations require only the density and the cumulative distribution functions of the standard normal distribution. In addition, the methodology presented can also be applied to determine the required sample size when the effect size and the power of a size test of mean are given.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hisnanick, J.J.; Kyer, B.L.
1995-01-01
The role of energy in the production of manufacturing output has been debated extensively in the literature, particularly its relationship with capital and labor. In an attempt to provide some clarification in this debate, a two-step methodology was used. First under the assumption of a five-factor production function specification, we distinguished between electric and non-electric energy and assessed each component's relationship with capital and labor. Second, we calculated both the Allen and price elasticities and constructed 95% confidence intervals around these values. Our approach led to the following conclusions: that the disaggregation of the energy input into electric and non-electric energy is justified; that capital and electric energy and capital and non-electric energy are substitutes, while labor and electric energy and labor and non-electric energy are complements in production; and that capital and energy are substitutes, while labor and energy are complements. (author)
Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka
2015-01-01
The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.
An SPSS Macro to Compute Confidence Intervals for Pearsons Correlation
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Bruce Weaver
2014-04-01
Full Text Available In many disciplines, including psychology, medical research, epidemiology and public health, authors are required, or at least encouraged to report confidence intervals (CIs along with effect size estimates. Many students and researchers in these areas use IBM-SPSS for statistical analysis. Unfortunately, the CORRELATIONS procedure in SPSS does not provide CIs in the output. Various work-around solutions have been suggested for obtaining CIs for rhowith SPSS, but most of them have been sub-optimal. Since release 18, it has been possible to compute bootstrap CIs, but only if users have the optional bootstrap module. The !rhoCI macro described in this article is accessible to all SPSS users with release 14 or later. It directs output from the CORRELATIONS procedure to another dataset, restructures that dataset to have one row per correlation, computes a CI for each correlation, and displays the results in a single table. Because the macro uses the CORRELATIONS procedure, it allows users to specify a list of two or more variables to include in the correlation matrix, to choose a confidence level, and to select either listwise or pairwise deletion. Thus, it offers substantial improvements over previous solutions to theproblem of how to compute CIs for rho with SPSS.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lins, Isis Didier; Droguett, Enrique López; Moura, Márcio das Chagas; Zio, Enrico; Jacinto, Carlos Magno
2015-01-01
Data-driven learning methods for predicting the evolution of the degradation processes affecting equipment are becoming increasingly attractive in reliability and prognostics applications. Among these, we consider here Support Vector Regression (SVR), which has provided promising results in various applications. Nevertheless, the predictions provided by SVR are point estimates whereas in order to take better informed decisions, an uncertainty assessment should be also carried out. For this, we apply bootstrap to SVR so as to obtain confidence and prediction intervals, without having to make any assumption about probability distributions and with good performance even when only a small data set is available. The bootstrapped SVR is first verified on Monte Carlo experiments and then is applied to a real case study concerning the prediction of degradation of a component from the offshore oil industry. The results obtained indicate that the bootstrapped SVR is a promising tool for providing reliable point and interval estimates, which can inform maintenance-related decisions on degrading components. - Highlights: • Bootstrap (pairs/residuals) and SVR are used as an uncertainty analysis framework. • Numerical experiments are performed to assess accuracy and coverage properties. • More bootstrap replications does not significantly improve performance. • Degradation of equipment of offshore oil wells is estimated by bootstrapped SVR. • Estimates about the scale growth rate can support maintenance-related decisions
Feng, Dai; Svetnik, Vladimir; Coimbra, Alexandre; Baumgartner, Richard
2014-01-01
The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with fixed raters or, equivalently, the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) for continuous outcomes is a widely accepted aggregate index of agreement in settings with small number of raters. Quantifying the precision of the CCC by constructing its confidence interval (CI) is important in early drug development applications, in particular in qualification of biomarker platforms. In recent years, there have been several new methods proposed for construction of CIs for the CCC, but their comprehensive comparison has not been attempted. The methods consisted of the delta method and jackknifing with and without Fisher's Z-transformation, respectively, and Bayesian methods with vague priors. In this study, we carried out a simulation study, with data simulated from multivariate normal as well as heavier tailed distribution (t-distribution with 5 degrees of freedom), to compare the state-of-the-art methods for assigning CI to the CCC. When the data are normally distributed, the jackknifing with Fisher's Z-transformation (JZ) tended to provide superior coverage and the difference between it and the closest competitor, the Bayesian method with the Jeffreys prior was in general minimal. For the nonnormal data, the jackknife methods, especially the JZ method, provided the coverage probabilities closest to the nominal in contrast to the others which yielded overly liberal coverage. Approaches based upon the delta method and Bayesian method with conjugate prior generally provided slightly narrower intervals and larger lower bounds than others, though this was offset by their poor coverage. Finally, we illustrated the utility of the CIs for the CCC in an example of a wake after sleep onset (WASO) biomarker, which is frequently used in clinical sleep studies of drugs for treatment of insomnia.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eleanor S Devenish Nelson
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weise, K.
1998-01-01
When a contribution of a particular nuclear radiation is to be detected, for instance, a spectral line of interest for some purpose of radiation protection, and quantities and their uncertainties must be taken into account which, such as influence quantities, cannot be determined by repeated measurements or by counting nuclear radiation events, then conventional statistics of event frequencies is not sufficient for defining the decision threshold, the detection limit, and the limits of a confidence interval. These characteristic limits are therefore redefined on the basis of Bayesian statistics for a wider applicability and in such a way that the usual practice remains as far as possible unaffected. The principle of maximum entropy is applied to establish probability distributions from available information. Quantiles of these distributions are used for defining the characteristic limits. But such a distribution must not be interpreted as a distribution of event frequencies such as the Poisson distribution. It rather expresses the actual state of incomplete knowledge of a physical quantity. The different definitions and interpretations and their quantitative consequences are presented and discussed with two examples. The new approach provides a theoretical basis for the DIN 25482-10 standard presently in preparation for general applications of the characteristic limits. (orig.) [de
Dong, Tuochuan; Kang, Le; Hutson, Alan; Xiong, Chengjie; Tian, Lili
2014-03-01
Although most of the statistical methods for diagnostic studies focus on disease processes with binary disease status, many diseases can be naturally classified into three ordinal diagnostic categories, that is normal, early stage, and fully diseased. For such diseases, the volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is the most commonly used index of diagnostic accuracy. Because the early disease stage is most likely the optimal time window for therapeutic intervention, the sensitivity to the early diseased stage has been suggested as another diagnostic measure. For the purpose of comparing the diagnostic abilities on early disease detection between two markers, it is of interest to estimate the confidence interval of the difference between sensitivities to the early diseased stage. In this paper, we present both parametric and non-parametric methods for this purpose. An extensive simulation study is carried out for a variety of settings for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the performance of the proposed methods. A real example of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is analyzed using the proposed approaches. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Melissa Coulson
2010-07-01
Full Text Available A statistically significant result, and a non-significant result may differ little, although significance status may tempt an interpretation of difference. Two studies are reported that compared interpretation of such results presented using null hypothesis significance testing (NHST, or confidence intervals (CIs. Authors of articles published in psychology, behavioural neuroscience, and medical journals were asked, via email, to interpret two fictitious studies that found similar results, one statistically significant, and the other non-significant. Responses from 330 authors varied greatly, but interpretation was generally poor, whether results were presented as CIs or using NHST. However, when interpreting CIs respondents who mentioned NHST were 60% likely to conclude, unjustifiably, the two results conflicted, whereas those who interpreted CIs without reference to NHST were 95% likely to conclude, justifiably, the two results were consistent. Findings were generally similar for all three disciplines. An email survey of academic psychologists confirmed that CIs elicit better interpretations if NHST is not invoked. Improved statistical inference can result from encouragement of meta-analytic thinking and use of CIs but, for full benefit, such highly desirable statistical reform requires also that researchers interpret CIs without recourse to NHST.
PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval tests for gene-disease association involving multiple SNPs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xue Fuzhong
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic association study is currently the primary vehicle for identification and characterization of disease-predisposing variant(s which usually involves multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs available. However, SNP-wise association tests raise concerns over multiple testing. Haplotype-based methods have the advantage of being able to account for correlations between neighbouring SNPs, yet assuming Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE and potentially large number degrees of freedom can harm its statistical power and robustness. Approaches based on principal component analysis (PCA are preferable in this regard but their performance varies with methods of extracting principal components (PCs. Results PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval test (PCA-BCIT, which directly uses the PC scores to assess gene-disease association, was developed and evaluated for three ways of extracting PCs, i.e., cases only(CAES, controls only(COES and cases and controls combined(CES. Extraction of PCs with COES is preferred to that with CAES and CES. Performance of the test was examined via simulations as well as analyses on data of rheumatoid arthritis and heroin addiction, which maintains nominal level under null hypothesis and showed comparable performance with permutation test. Conclusions PCA-BCIT is a valid and powerful method for assessing gene-disease association involving multiple SNPs.
R package to estimate intracluster correlation coefficient with confidence interval for binary data.
Chakraborty, Hrishikesh; Hossain, Akhtar
2018-03-01
The Intracluster Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is a major parameter of interest in cluster randomized trials that measures the degree to which responses within the same cluster are correlated. There are several types of ICC estimators and its confidence intervals (CI) suggested in the literature for binary data. Studies have compared relative weaknesses and advantages of ICC estimators as well as its CI for binary data and suggested situations where one is advantageous in practical research. The commonly used statistical computing systems currently facilitate estimation of only a very few variants of ICC and its CI. To address the limitations of current statistical packages, we developed an R package, ICCbin, to facilitate estimating ICC and its CI for binary responses using different methods. The ICCbin package is designed to provide estimates of ICC in 16 different ways including analysis of variance methods, moments based estimation, direct probabilistic methods, correlation based estimation, and resampling method. CI of ICC is estimated using 5 different methods. It also generates cluster binary data using exchangeable correlation structure. ICCbin package provides two functions for users. The function rcbin() generates cluster binary data and the function iccbin() estimates ICC and it's CI. The users can choose appropriate ICC and its CI estimate from the wide selection of estimates from the outputs. The R package ICCbin presents very flexible and easy to use ways to generate cluster binary data and to estimate ICC and it's CI for binary response using different methods. The package ICCbin is freely available for use with R from the CRAN repository (https://cran.r-project.org/package=ICCbin). We believe that this package can be a very useful tool for researchers to design cluster randomized trials with binary outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data
Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.
2012-01-01
Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…
Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro
2017-10-01
The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.
Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.
2010-01-01
Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kyselý, Jan
2010-01-01
Roč. 101, 3-4 (2010), s. 345-361 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420801 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : bootstrap * extreme value analysis * confidence intervals * heavy-tailed distributions * precipitation amounts Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.684, year: 2010
A computer program (COSTUM) to calculate confidence intervals for in situ stress measurements. V. 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dzik, E.J.; Walker, J.R.; Martin, C.D.
1989-03-01
The state of in situ stress is one of the parameters required both for the design and analysis of underground excavations and for the evaluation of numerical models used to simulate underground conditions. To account for the variability and uncertainty of in situ stress measurements, it is desirable to apply confidence limits to measured stresses. Several measurements of the state of stress along a borehole are often made to estimate the average state of stress at a point. Since stress is a tensor, calculating the mean stress and confidence limits using scalar techniques is inappropriate as well as incorrect. A computer program has been written to calculate and present the mean principle stresses and the confidence limits for the magnitudes and directions of the mean principle stresses. This report describes the computer program, COSTUM
Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin
2014-01-01
The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.
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Tak Fung
Full Text Available The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%, a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L., occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Priya Ranganathan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ′P′ value, explain the importance of ′confidence intervals′ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper
Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc
2015-01-01
In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ‘P’ value, explain the importance of ‘confidence intervals’ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper PMID:25878958
Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika
2013-03-01
Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goodman, J.
1985-01-01
Using a few available data the likelihood functions for the failure rate and unavailability per demand are constructed. These likelihood functions are used to obtain likelihood density functions for the failure rate and unavailability per demand. The best (or shortest) confidence intervals for these functions are provided. The failure rate and unavailability per demand are important characteristics needed for reliability and availability analysis. The methods of estimation of these characteristics when plenty of observed data are available are well known. However, on many occasions when we deal with rare failure modes or with new equipment or components for which sufficient experience has not accumulated, we have scarce data where few or zero failures have occurred. In these cases, a technique which reflects exactly our state of knowledge is required. This technique is based on likelihood density function or Bayesian methods depending on the available prior distribution. To extract the maximum amount of information from the data the best confidence interval is determined
Carnegie, Nicole Bohme
2011-04-15
The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.
Harari, Gil
2014-01-01
Statistic significance, also known as p-value, and CI (Confidence Interval) are common statistics measures and are essential for the statistical analysis of studies in medicine and life sciences. These measures provide complementary information about the statistical probability and conclusions regarding the clinical significance of study findings. This article is intended to describe the methodologies, compare between the methods, assert their suitability for the different needs of study results analysis and to explain situations in which each method should be used.
Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M
2012-08-01
This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McLoughlin, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2016-01-11
This report describes the design and implementation of an algorithm for estimating relative microbial abundances, together with confidence limits, using data from metagenomic DNA sequencing. For the background behind this project and a detailed discussion of our modeling approach for metagenomic data, we refer the reader to our earlier technical report, dated March 4, 2014. Briefly, we described a fully Bayesian generative model for paired-end sequence read data, incorporating the effects of the relative abundances, the distribution of sequence fragment lengths, fragment position bias, sequencing errors and variations between the sampled genomes and the nearest reference genomes. A distinctive feature of our modeling approach is the use of a Chinese restaurant process (CRP) to describe the selection of genomes to be sampled, and thus the relative abundances. The CRP component is desirable for fitting abundances to reads that may map ambiguously to multiple targets, because it naturally leads to sparse solutions that select the best representative from each set of nearly equivalent genomes.
Boiret, Mathieu; Meunier, Loïc; Ginot, Yves-Michel
2011-02-20
A near infrared (NIR) method was developed for determination of tablet potency of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in a complex coated tablet matrix. The calibration set contained samples from laboratory and production scale batches. The reference values were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to establish a model. The model was challenged by calculating tablet potency of two external test sets. Root mean square errors of prediction were respectively equal to 2.0% and 2.7%. To use this model with a second spectrometer from the production field, a calibration transfer method called piecewise direct standardisation (PDS) was used. After the transfer, the root mean square error of prediction of the first test set was 2.4% compared to 4.0% without transferring the spectra. A statistical technique using bootstrap of PLS residuals was used to estimate confidence intervals of tablet potency calculations. This method requires an optimised PLS model, selection of the bootstrap number and determination of the risk. In the case of a chemical analysis, the tablet potency value will be included within the confidence interval calculated by the bootstrap method. An easy to use graphical interface was developed to easily determine if the predictions, surrounded by minimum and maximum values, are within the specifications defined by the regulatory organisation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Pradhan, Vivek; Saha, Krishna K; Banerjee, Tathagata; Evans, John C
2014-07-30
Inference on the difference between two binomial proportions in the paired binomial setting is often an important problem in many biomedical investigations. Tang et al. (2010, Statistics in Medicine) discussed six methods to construct confidence intervals (henceforth, we abbreviate it as CI) for the difference between two proportions in paired binomial setting using method of variance estimates recovery. In this article, we propose weighted profile likelihood-based CIs for the difference between proportions of a paired binomial distribution. However, instead of the usual likelihood, we use weighted likelihood that is essentially making adjustments to the cell frequencies of a 2 × 2 table in the spirit of Agresti and Min (2005, Statistics in Medicine). We then conduct numerical studies to compare the performances of the proposed CIs with that of Tang et al. and Agresti and Min in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths. Our numerical study clearly indicates that the weighted profile likelihood-based intervals and Jeffreys interval (cf. Tang et al.) are superior in terms of achieving the nominal level, and in terms of expected lengths, they are competitive. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed CIs with real-life examples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Steen; Cooley, R.L.
a model (for example when using the Parameter-Estimation Process of MODFLOW-2000) it is advantageous to also use regression-based methods to quantify uncertainty. For this reason the UNC Process computes (1) confidence intervals for parameters of the Parameter-Estimation Process and (2) confidence...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2017-01-01
Since 2004, the environment programme of the IAEA has included activities aimed at developing a set of procedures for analytical measurements of radionuclides in food and the environment. Reliable, comparable and fit for purpose results are essential for any analytical measurement. Guidelines and national and international standards for laboratory practices to fulfil quality assurance requirements are extremely important when performing such measurements. The guidelines and standards should be comprehensive, clearly formulated and readily available to both the analyst and the customer. ISO 11929:2010 is the international standard on the determination of the characteristic limits (decision threshold, detection limit and limits of the confidence interval) for measuring ionizing radiation. For nuclear analytical laboratories involved in the measurement of radioactivity in food and the environment, robust determination of the characteristic limits of radioanalytical techniques is essential with regard to national and international regulations on permitted levels of radioactivity. However, characteristic limits defined in ISO 11929:2010 are complex, and the correct application of the standard in laboratories requires a full understanding of various concepts. This publication provides additional information to Member States in the understanding of the terminology, definitions and concepts in ISO 11929:2010, thus facilitating its implementation in Member State laboratories.
Odgaard, Eric C; Fowler, Robert L
2010-06-01
In 2005, the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (JCCP) became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest editorial effort to improve statistical reporting practices in any APA journal in at least a decade, in this article we investigate the efficacy of that change. All intervention studies published in JCCP in 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 were reviewed. Each article was coded for method of clinical significance, type of ES, and type of associated CI, broken down by statistical test (F, t, chi-square, r/R(2), and multivariate modeling). By 2008, clinical significance compliance was 75% (up from 31%), with 94% of studies reporting some measure of ES (reporting improved for individual statistical tests ranging from eta(2) = .05 to .17, with reasonable CIs). Reporting of CIs for ESs also improved, although only to 40%. Also, the vast majority of reported CIs used approximations, which become progressively less accurate for smaller sample sizes and larger ESs (cf. Algina & Kessleman, 2003). Changes are near asymptote for ESs and clinical significance, but CIs lag behind. As CIs for ESs are required for primary outcomes, we show how to compute CIs for the vast majority of ESs reported in JCCP, with an example of how to use CIs for ESs as a method to assess clinical significance.
Parks, Nathan A.; Gannon, Matthew A.; Long, Stephanie M.; Young, Madeleine E.
2016-01-01
Analysis of event-related potential (ERP) data includes several steps to ensure that ERPs meet an appropriate level of signal quality. One such step, subject exclusion, rejects subject data if ERP waveforms fail to meet an appropriate level of signal quality. Subject exclusion is an important quality control step in the ERP analysis pipeline as it ensures that statistical inference is based only upon those subjects exhibiting clear evoked brain responses. This critical quality control step is most often performed simply through visual inspection of subject-level ERPs by investigators. Such an approach is qualitative, subjective, and susceptible to investigator bias, as there are no standards as to what constitutes an ERP of sufficient signal quality. Here, we describe a standardized and objective method for quantifying waveform quality in individual subjects and establishing criteria for subject exclusion. The approach uses bootstrap resampling of ERP waveforms (from a pool of all available trials) to compute a signal-to-noise ratio confidence interval (SNR-CI) for individual subject waveforms. The lower bound of this SNR-CI (SNRLB) yields an effective and objective measure of signal quality as it ensures that ERP waveforms statistically exceed a desired signal-to-noise criterion. SNRLB provides a quantifiable metric of individual subject ERP quality and eliminates the need for subjective evaluation of waveform quality by the investigator. We detail the SNR-CI methodology, establish the efficacy of employing this approach with Monte Carlo simulations, and demonstrate its utility in practice when applied to ERP datasets. PMID:26903849
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rik Crutzen
2017-07-01
Full Text Available When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy, we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.
Crutzen, Rik; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Ygram; Noijen, Judith
2017-01-01
When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention) in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy), we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.
Sugiura, T.; Hirata, H.; Hand, J. W.; van Leeuwen, J. M. J.; Mizushina, S.
2011-10-01
Clinical trials of hypothermic brain treatment for newborn babies are currently hindered by the difficulty in measuring deep brain temperatures. As one of the possible methods for noninvasive and continuous temperature monitoring that is completely passive and inherently safe is passive microwave radiometry (MWR). We have developed a five-band microwave radiometer system with a single dual-polarized, rectangular waveguide antenna operating within the 1-4 GHz range and a method for retrieving the temperature profile from five radiometric brightness temperatures. This paper addresses (1) the temperature calibration for five microwave receivers, (2) the measurement experiment using a phantom model that mimics the temperature profile in a newborn baby, and (3) the feasibility for noninvasive monitoring of deep brain temperatures. Temperature resolutions were 0.103, 0.129, 0.138, 0.105 and 0.111 K for 1.2, 1.65, 2.3, 3.0 and 3.6 GHz receivers, respectively. The precision of temperature estimation (2σ confidence interval) was about 0.7°C at a 5-cm depth from the phantom surface. Accuracy, which is the difference between the estimated temperature using this system and the measured temperature by a thermocouple at a depth of 5 cm, was about 2°C. The current result is not satisfactory for clinical application because the clinical requirement for accuracy must be better than 1°C for both precision and accuracy at a depth of 5 cm. Since a couple of possible causes for this inaccuracy have been identified, we believe that the system can take a step closer to the clinical application of MWR for hypothermic rescue treatment.
Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan
2016-04-01
Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Veglia, A.
1981-08-01
In cases where sets of data are obviously not normally distributed, the application of a nonparametric method for the estimation of a confidence interval for the mean seems to be more suitable than some other methods because such a method requires few assumptions about the population of data. A two-step statistical method is proposed which can be applied to any set of analytical results: elimination of outliers by a nonparametric method based on Tchebycheff's inequality, and determination of a confidence interval for the mean by a non-parametric method based on binominal distribution. The method is appropriate only for samples of size n>=10
Kenning, Tyler J; Pinheiro-Neto, Carlos D
2018-04-01
The extended endoscopic endonasal approach can be utilized to surgically treat pathology within the suprasellar space. This relies on a sufficient corridor and interval between the superior aspect of the pituitary gland and the optic chiasm. Tumors located in the retrochiasmatic space and within the third ventricle, however, may not have a widened interval through which to work. With mass effect on the superior and posterior aspect of the optic chiasm, the corridor between the chiasm and the pituitary gland might even be further narrowed. This may negate the possibility of utilizing the endoscopic endonasal approach for the management of pathology in this location. We present a case of a retrochiasmatic craniopharyngioma with a narrow resection corridor that was treated with the extended endoscopic approach and we review techniques to potentially overcome this limitation. The link to the video can be found at: https://youtu.be/ogRZj-aBqeQ .
Palmer, Matthew A.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika
2013-01-01
Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the…
Boydell, Carroll
2008-01-01
While much research has explored how well earwitnesses can identify the voice of a perpetrator, little research has examined how well they can recall details from a perpetrator’s confession. This study examines the accuracy-confidence correlation for memory for details from a perpetrator’s verbal account of a crime, as well as the effects of two variables commonly encountered in a criminal investigation (rehearsal and length of retention interval) on that correlation. Results suggest that con...
Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi
2011-06-01
For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.
Filgueiras, Paulo R; Terra, Luciana A; Castro, Eustáquio V R; Oliveira, Lize M S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J
2015-09-01
This paper aims to estimate the temperature equivalent to 10% (T10%), 50% (T50%) and 90% (T90%) of distilled volume in crude oils using (1)H NMR and support vector regression (SVR). Confidence intervals for the predicted values were calculated using a boosting-type ensemble method in a procedure called ensemble support vector regression (eSVR). The estimated confidence intervals obtained by eSVR were compared with previously accepted calculations from partial least squares (PLS) models and a boosting-type ensemble applied in the PLS method (ePLS). By using the proposed boosting strategy, it was possible to identify outliers in the T10% property dataset. The eSVR procedure improved the accuracy of the distillation temperature predictions in relation to standard PLS, ePLS and SVR. For T10%, a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 11.6°C was obtained in comparison with 15.6°C for PLS, 15.1°C for ePLS and 28.4°C for SVR. The RMSEPs for T50% were 24.2°C, 23.4°C, 22.8°C and 14.4°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. For T90%, the values of RMSEP were 39.0°C, 39.9°C and 39.9°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. The confidence intervals calculated by the proposed boosting methodology presented acceptable values for the three properties analyzed; however, they were lower than those calculated by the standard methodology for PLS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Brown, Angus M
2010-04-01
The objective of the method described in this paper is to develop a spreadsheet template for the purpose of comparing multiple sample means. An initial analysis of variance (ANOVA) test on the data returns F--the test statistic. If F is larger than the critical F value drawn from the F distribution at the appropriate degrees of freedom, convention dictates rejection of the null hypothesis and allows subsequent multiple comparison testing to determine where the inequalities between the sample means lie. A variety of multiple comparison methods are described that return the 95% confidence intervals for differences between means using an inclusive pairwise comparison of the sample means. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Conny, J.M.; Norris, G.A.; Gould, T.R.
2009-01-01
Thermal-optical transmission (TOT) analysis measures black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosol on a fibrous filter. The method pyrolyzes organic carbon (OC) and employs laser light absorption to distinguish BC from the pyrolyzed OC; however, the instrument does not necessarily separate the two physically. In addition, a comprehensive temperature protocol for the analysis based on the Beer-Lambert Law remains elusive. Here, empirical response-surface modeling was used to show how the temperature protocol in TOT analysis can be modified to distinguish pyrolyzed OC from BC based on the Beer-Lambert Law. We determined the apparent specific absorption cross sections for pyrolyzed OC (σ Char ) and BC (σ BC ), which accounted for individual absorption enhancement effects within the filter. Response-surface models of these cross sections were derived from a three-factor central-composite factorial experimental design: temperature and duration of the high-temperature step in the helium phase, and the heating increase in the helium-oxygen phase. The response surface for σ BC , which varied with instrument conditions, revealed a ridge indicating the correct conditions for OC pyrolysis in helium. The intersection of the σ BC and σ Char surfaces indicated the conditions where the cross sections were equivalent, satisfying an important assumption upon which the method relies. 95% confidence interval surfaces defined a confidence region for a range of pyrolysis conditions. Analyses of wintertime samples from Seattle, WA revealed a temperature between 830 deg. C and 850 deg. C as most suitable for the helium high-temperature step lasting 150 s. However, a temperature as low as 750 deg. C could not be rejected statistically
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jason W. Osborne
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Osborne and Waters (2002 focused on checking some of the assumptions of multiple linear.regression. In a critique of that paper, Williams, Grajales, and Kurkiewicz correctly clarify that.regression models estimated using ordinary least squares require the assumption of normally.distributed errors, but not the assumption of normally distributed response or predictor variables..They go on to discuss estimate bias and provide a helpful summary of the assumptions of multiple.regression when using ordinary least squares. While we were not as precise as we could have been.when discussing assumptions of normality, the critical issue of the 2002 paper remains -' researchers.often do not check on or report on the assumptions of their statistical methods. This response.expands on the points made by Williams, advocates a thorough examination of data prior to.reporting results, and provides an example of how incremental improvements in meeting the.assumption of normality of residuals incrementally improves the accuracy of confidence intervals.
Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A
2015-05-01
Biomechanical processes are often manifested as one-dimensional (1D) trajectories. It has been shown that 1D confidence intervals (CIs) are biased when based on 0D statistical procedures, and the non-parametric 1D bootstrap CI has emerged in the Biomechanics literature as a viable solution. The primary purpose of this paper was to clarify that, for 1D biomechanics datasets, the distinction between 0D and 1D methods is much more important than the distinction between parametric and non-parametric procedures. A secondary purpose was to demonstrate that a parametric equivalent to the 1D bootstrap exists in the form of a random field theory (RFT) correction for multiple comparisons. To emphasize these points we analyzed six datasets consisting of force and kinematic trajectories in one-sample, paired, two-sample and regression designs. Results showed, first, that the 1D bootstrap and other 1D non-parametric CIs were qualitatively identical to RFT CIs, and all were very different from 0D CIs. Second, 1D parametric and 1D non-parametric hypothesis testing results were qualitatively identical for all six datasets. Last, we highlight the limitations of 1D CIs by demonstrating that they are complex, design-dependent, and thus non-generalizable. These results suggest that (i) analyses of 1D data based on 0D models of randomness are generally biased unless one explicitly identifies 0D variables before the experiment, and (ii) parametric and non-parametric 1D hypothesis testing provide an unambiguous framework for analysis when one׳s hypothesis explicitly or implicitly pertains to whole 1D trajectories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Feng, Dai; Cortese, Giuliana; Baumgartner, Richard
2017-12-01
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is frequently used as a measure of accuracy of continuous markers in diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is arguably the most widely used summary index for the ROC curve. Although the small sample size scenario is common in medical tests, a comprehensive study of small sample size properties of various methods for the construction of the confidence/credible interval (CI) for the AUC has been by and large missing in the literature. In this paper, we describe and compare 29 non-parametric and parametric methods for the construction of the CI for the AUC when the number of available observations is small. The methods considered include not only those that have been widely adopted, but also those that have been less frequently mentioned or, to our knowledge, never applied to the AUC context. To compare different methods, we carried out a simulation study with data generated from binormal models with equal and unequal variances and from exponential models with various parameters and with equal and unequal small sample sizes. We found that the larger the true AUC value and the smaller the sample size, the larger the discrepancy among the results of different approaches. When the model is correctly specified, the parametric approaches tend to outperform the non-parametric ones. Moreover, in the non-parametric domain, we found that a method based on the Mann-Whitney statistic is in general superior to the others. We further elucidate potential issues and provide possible solutions to along with general guidance on the CI construction for the AUC when the sample size is small. Finally, we illustrate the utility of different methods through real life examples.
Joshi, Nikhil P; Stopper, Matthew M; Li, Jianqing; Beshai, John F; Pavri, Behzad B
2015-08-01
Heart failure (HF) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality, and ventricular dyssynchrony is an important contributor. The ReThinQ trial reported no improvement with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in HF patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) PR interval. We retrospectivelyanalyzed the 87 patients from ReThinQ who were randomized to CRT. Patients were divided into two groups: baseline PR interval PR interval ≥180 ms. The primary outcome was change in VO2 max at 6 months; secondary outcomes were change in LVEF, 6-min walk distance, and change in NYHA class. Forty-six patients had PR PR ≥ 180 ms. The baseline characteristics were similar in the two groups. As compared to patients with a short PR interval, at 6 months, only patients with PR ≥ 180 ms showed a statistically significant increase in VO2 max from 12.2 to 13.6 mL/kg min (P = 0.045). Similarly, LVEF was significantly improved only in the long PR group (0.26 to 0.28, P = 0.038). A greater percentage of patients in the long PR group showed improvement by at least one NYHA class (59 vs. 35%, P = 0.033). A longer baseline PR interval may allow more efficacious delivery of CRT by allowing programming of physiologic AV delays. A short baseline PR interval may contribute to LV under-filling and CRT non-response.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
叶宝娟; 温忠麟
2012-01-01
Reliability is very important in evaluating the quality of a test. Based on the confirmatory factor analysis, composite reliabili- ty is a good index to estimate the test reliability for general applications. As is well known, point estimate contains limited information a- bout a population parameter and cannot indicate how far it can be from the population parameter. The confidence interval of the parame- ter can provide more information. In evaluating the quality of a test, the confidence interval of composite reliability has received atten- tion in recent years. There are three approaches to estimating the confidence interval of composite reliability of an unidimensional test: the Bootstrap method, the Delta method, and the direct use of the standard error of a software output (e. g. , LISREL). The Bootstrap method pro- vides empirical results of the standard error, and is the most credible method. But it needs data simulation techniques, and its computa- tion process is rather complex. The Delta method computes the standard error of composite reliability by approximate calculation. It is simpler than the Bootstrap method. The LISREL software can directly prompt the standard error, and it is the easiest among the three methods. By simulation study, it had been found that the interval estimates obtained by the Delta method and the Bootstrap method were almost identical, whereas the results obtained by LISREL and by the Bootstrap method were substantially different ( Ye & Wen, 2011 ). The Delta method is recommended when the confidence interval of composite reliability of a unidimensional test is estimated, because the Delta method is simpler than the Bootstrap method. There was little research about how to compute the confidence interval of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. We de- duced a formula by using the Delta method for computing the standard error of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. Based on the standard error, the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rubén Ledesma
2004-06-01
Full Text Available El coeficiente alfa de Cronbach es el modo más habitual de estimar la fiabilidad de pruebas basadas en Teoría Clásica de los Test. En dicha estimación, los investigadores usualmente omiten informar intervalos de confianza para el coeficiente, un aspecto no solo recomendado por los especialistas, sino también requerido explícitamente en las normas editoriales de algunas revistas especializadas. Esta situación puede atribuirse a que los métodos de estimación de intervalos de confianza son poco conocidos, además de no estar disponibles al usuario en los programas estadísticos más populares. Así, en este trabajo se presenta un programa desarrollado dentro del sistema estadístico ViSta que permite calcular intervalos de confianza basados en el enfoque clásico y mediante la técnica bootstrap. Se espera promover la inclusión de intervalos de confianza para medidas de fiabilidad, facilitando el acceso a las herramientas necesarias para su aplicación. El programa es gratuito y puede obtenerse enviando un mail de solicitud al autor del trabajo.Cronbach's alpha coefficient is the most popular way of estimating reliability in measurement scales based on Classic Test Theory. When estimating it, researchers usually omit to report confidence intervals of this coefficient, as it is not only recommended by experts, but also required by some journal's guidelines. This situation is because the different methods of estimating confidence intervals are not well-known by researchers, as well as they are not being available among the most popular statistical packages. Therefore, this paper describes a computer program integrated into the ViSta statistical system, which allows computing confidence intervals based on the classical approach and using bootstrap technique. It is hoped that this work promotes the inclusion of confidence intervals of reliability measures, by increasing the availability of the required computer tools. The program is free and
Bootstrap confidence intervals for principal response curves
Timmerman, Marieke E.; Ter Braak, Cajo J. F.
2008-01-01
The principal response curve (PRC) model is of use to analyse multivariate data resulting from experiments involving repeated sampling in time. The time-dependent treatment effects are represented by PRCs, which are functional in nature. The sample PRCs can be estimated using a raw approach, or the
Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Principal Response Curves
Timmerman, M.E.; Braak, ter C.J.F.
2008-01-01
The principal response curve (PRC) model is of use to analyse multivariate data resulting from experiments involving repeated sampling in time. The time-dependent treatment effects are represented by PRCs, which are functional in nature. The sample PRCs can be estimated using a raw approach, or the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Manuel G Scotto
2003-12-01
Full Text Available El presente ensayo trata de aclarar algunos conceptos utilizados habitualmente en el campo de investigación de la salud pública, que en numerosas situaciones son interpretados de manera incorrecta. Entre ellos encontramos la estimación puntual, los intervalos de confianza, y los contrastes de hipótesis. Estableciendo un paralelismo entre estos tres conceptos, podemos observar cuáles son sus diferencias más importantes a la hora de ser interpretados, tanto desde el punto de vista del enfoque clásico como desde la óptica bayesiana.This essay reviews some statistical concepts frequently used in public health research that are commonly misinterpreted. These include point estimates, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests. By comparing them using the classical and the Bayesian perspectives, their interpretation becomes clearer.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.
The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....
Confidence limits for parameters of Poisson and binomial distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arnett, L.M.
1976-04-01
The confidence limits for the frequency in a Poisson process and for the proportion of successes in a binomial process were calculated and tabulated for the situations in which the observed values of the frequency or proportion and an a priori distribution of these parameters are available. Methods are used that produce limits with exactly the stated confidence levels. The confidence interval [a,b] is calculated so that Pr [a less than or equal to lambda less than or equal to b c,μ], where c is the observed value of the parameter, and μ is the a priori hypothesis of the distribution of this parameter. A Bayesian type analysis is used. The intervals calculated are narrower and appreciably different from results, known to be conservative, that are often used in problems of this type. Pearson and Hartley recognized the characteristics of their methods and contemplated that exact methods could someday be used. The calculation of the exact intervals requires involved numerical analyses readily implemented only on digital computers not available to Pearson and Hartley. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to verify a selected interval from those calculated. This numerical experiment confirmed the results of the analytical methods and the prediction of Pearson and Hartley that their published tables give conservative results
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jenny Isaacs
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.
Statistical intervals a guide for practitioners
Hahn, Gerald J
2011-01-01
Presents a detailed exposition of statistical intervals and emphasizes applications in industry. The discussion differentiates at an elementary level among different kinds of statistical intervals and gives instruction with numerous examples and simple math on how to construct such intervals from sample data. This includes confidence intervals to contain a population percentile, confidence intervals on probability of meeting specified threshold value, and prediction intervals to include observation in a future sample. Also has an appendix containing computer subroutines for nonparametric stati
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kajdalov, A.B.
1986-01-01
Experimental data on np interactions indicating to existence of narrow resonances in pp-system are discussed. Possible theoretical interpretations of these resonances are given. Experimental characteristics of the dibaryon resonances with isospin I=2 are considered
Confidence Intervals for Omega Coefficient: Proposal for Calculus.
Ventura-León, José Luis
2018-01-01
La confiabilidad es entendida como una propiedad métrica de las puntuaciones de un instrumento de medida. Recientemente se viene utilizando el coeficiente omega (ω) para la estimación de la confiabilidad. No obstante, la medición nunca es exacta por la influencia del error aleatorio, por esa razón es necesario calcular y reportar el intervalo de confianza (IC) que permite encontrar en valor verdadero en un rango de medida. En ese contexto, el artículo plantea una forma de estimar el IC mediante el método de bootstrap para facilitar este procedimiento se brindan códigos de R (un software de acceso libre) para que puedan realizarse los cálculos de una forma amigable. Se espera que el artículo sirva de ayuda a los investigadores de ámbito de salud.
Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval
Aeyoung Kim; Geunshik Han; Seung-Hyun Seo
2017-01-01
The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authenticatio...
Intervals of confidence: Uncertain accounts of global hunger
Yates-Doerr, E.
2015-01-01
Global health policy experts tend to organize hunger through scales of ‘the individual’, ‘the community’ and ‘the global’. This organization configures hunger as a discrete, measurable object to be scaled up or down with mathematical certainty. This article offers a counter to this approach, using
A quick method to calculate QTL confidence interval
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
2011-08-19
Aug 19, 2011 ... experimental design and analysis to reveal the real molecular nature of the ... strap sample form the bootstrap distribution of QTL location. The 2.5 and ..... ative probability to harbour a true QTL, hence x-LOD rule is not stable ... Darvasi A. and Soller M. 1997 A simple method to calculate resolv- ing power ...
Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients
Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao
2018-01-01
In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…
An approximate confidence interval for recombination fraction in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
2011-02-14
Feb 14, 2011 ... whose parents are not in the pedigree) and θ be the recombination fraction. ( )|. P x g is the penetrance probability, that is, the probability that an individual with genotype g has phenotype x . Let (. ) | , k k k f m. P g g g be the transmission probability, that is, the probability that an individual having genotype k.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sedgwick, Mark
2015-01-01
The term “jihadism” is popular, but difficult. It has narrow senses, which are generally valuable, and wide senses, which may be misleading. This article looks at the derivation and use of “jihadism” and of related terms, at definitions provided by a number of leading scholars, and at media usage....... It distinguishes two main groups of scholarly definitions, some careful and narrow, and some appearing to match loose media usage. However, it shows that even these scholarly definitions actually make important distinctions between jihadism and associated political and theological ideology. The article closes...
... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...
Correlates of Narrow Bracketing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Koch, Alexander; Nafziger, Julia
We examine whether different phenomena of narrow bracketing can be traced back to some common characteristic and whether and how different phenomena are related. We find that making dominated lottery choices or ignoring the endowment when making risky choices are related phenomena and are both as...
nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Temechegn
Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.
Narrow beam neutron dosimetry.
Ferenci, M Sutton
2004-01-01
Organ and effective doses have been estimated for male and female anthropomorphic mathematical models exposed to monoenergetic narrow beams of neutrons with energies from 10(-11) to 1000 MeV. Calculations were performed for anterior-posterior, posterior-anterior, left-lateral and right-lateral irradiation geometries. The beam diameter used in the calculations was 7.62 cm and the phantoms were irradiated at a height of 1 m above the ground. This geometry was chosen to simulate an accidental scenario (a worker walking through the beam) at Flight Path 30 Left (FP30L) of the Weapons Neutron Research (WNR) Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The calculations were carried out using the Monte Carlo transport code MCNPX 2.5c.
Reclaim your creative confidence.
Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David
2012-12-01
Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.
Confidence in Numerical Simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hemez, Francois M.
2015-01-01
This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.
Confidence bands for inverse regression models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo
2010-01-01
We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract
Globalization of consumer confidence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Çelik Sadullah
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and postcrisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.
Narrow, duplicated internal auditory canal
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ferreira, T. [Servico de Neurorradiologia, Hospital Garcia de Orta, Avenida Torrado da Silva, 2801-951, Almada (Portugal); Shayestehfar, B. [Department of Radiology, UCLA Oliveview School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California (United States); Lufkin, R. [Department of Radiology, UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California (United States)
2003-05-01
A narrow internal auditory canal (IAC) constitutes a relative contraindication to cochlear implantation because it is associated with aplasia or hypoplasia of the vestibulocochlear nerve or its cochlear branch. We report an unusual case of a narrow, duplicated IAC, divided by a bony septum into a superior relatively large portion and an inferior stenotic portion, in which we could identify only the facial nerve. This case adds support to the association between a narrow IAC and aplasia or hypoplasia of the vestibulocochlear nerve. The normal facial nerve argues against the hypothesis that the narrow IAC is the result of a primary bony defect which inhibits the growth of the vestibulocochlear nerve. (orig.)
Buckel, Whitney R; Stenehjem, Edward; Sorensen, Jeff; Dean, Nathan; Webb, Brandon
2017-02-01
Guidelines recommend a switch from intravenous to oral antibiotics once patients who are hospitalized with pneumonia achieve clinical stability. However, little evidence guides the selection of an oral antibiotic for patients with health care-associated pneumonia, especially where no microbiological diagnosis is made. To compare outcomes between patients who were transitioned to broad- versus narrow-spectrum oral antibiotics after initially receiving broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotic coverage. We performed a secondary analysis of an existing database of adults with community-onset pneumonia admitted to seven Utah hospitals. We identified 220 inpatients with microbiology-negative health care-associated pneumonia from 2010 to 2012. After excluding inpatient deaths and treatment failures, 173 patients remained in which broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotics were transitioned to an oral regimen. We classified oral regimens as broad-spectrum (fluoroquinolone) versus narrow-spectrum (usually a β-lactam). We compared demographic and clinical characteristics between groups. Using a multivariable regression model, we adjusted outcomes by severity (electronically calculated CURB-65), comorbidity (Charlson Index), time to clinical stability, and length of intravenous therapy. Age, severity, comorbidity, length of intravenous therapy, and clinical response were similar between the two groups. Observed 30-day readmission (11.9 vs. 21.4%; P = 0.26) and 30-day all-cause mortality (2.3 vs. 5.3%; P = 0.68) were also similar between the narrow and broad oral antibiotic groups. In multivariable analysis, we found no statistically significant differences for adjusted odds of 30-day readmission (adjusted odds ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.06-5.2; P = 0.61) or 30-day all-cause mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-1.6; P = 0.26) between narrow and broad oral antibiotic groups. On the basis of analysis of a limited number of patients
Confidence in Numerical Simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-02-23
This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.
Flooding correlations in narrow channel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, S. H.; Baek, W. P.; Chang, S. H.
1999-01-01
Heat transfer in narrow gap is considered as important phenomena in severe accidents in nuclear power plants. Also in heat removal of electric chip. Critical heat flux(CHF) in narrow gap limits the maximum heat transfer rate in narrow channel. In case of closed bottom channel, flooding limited CHF occurrence is observed. Flooding correlations will be helpful to predict the CHF in closed bottom channel. In present study, flooding data for narrow channel geometry were collected and the work to recognize the effect of the span, w and gap size, s were performed. And new flooding correlations were suggested for high-aspect-ratio geometry. Also, flooding correlation was applied to flooding limited CHF data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bogdanova, L.N.; Dalkarov, O.D.; Kerbikov, B.O.; Shapiro, I.S.
1975-01-01
The present status of the problem of quasinuclear states in systems of nucleons and antinucleons is reviewed. The theoretical predictions are compared with experimental data on narrow meson resonances near N anti N threshold which appeared in 1971-74
A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions
Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.
1982-01-01
One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.
Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation
Steve Verrill
2003-01-01
This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...
The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.
Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador
2017-11-01
Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.
Diverse interpretations of confidence building
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Macintosh, J.
1998-01-01
This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)
Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Atwood, C.L.
1986-01-01
This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)
Interval selection with machine-dependent intervals
Bohmova K.; Disser Y.; Mihalak M.; Widmayer P.
2013-01-01
We study an offline interval scheduling problem where every job has exactly one associated interval on every machine. To schedule a set of jobs, exactly one of the intervals associated with each job must be selected, and the intervals selected on the same machine must not intersect.We show that deciding whether all jobs can be scheduled is NP-complete already in various simple cases. In particular, by showing the NP-completeness for the case when all the intervals associated with the same job...
Nuclear power: restoring public confidence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arnold, L.
1986-01-01
The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)
QSOs with narrow emission lines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baldwin, J.A.; Mcmahon, R.; Hazard, C.; Williams, R.E.
1988-01-01
Observations of two new high-redshift, narrow-lined QSOs (NLQSOs) are presented and discussed together with observations of similar objects reported in the literature. Gravitational lensing is ruled out as a possible means of amplifying the luminosity for one of these objects. It is found that the NLQSOs have broad bases on their emission lines as well as the prominent narrow cores which define this class. Thus, these are not pole-on QSOs. The FWHM of the emission lines fits onto the smoothly falling tail of the lower end of the line-width distribution for complete QSO samples. The equivalent widths of the combined broad and narrow components of the lines are normal for QSOs of the luminosity range under study. However, the NLQSOs do show ionization differences from broader-lined QSOs; most significant, the semiforbidden C III/C IV intensity ratio is unusually low. The N/C abundance ratio in these objects is found to be normal; the Al/C abundance ratio may be quite high. 38 references
Confidence in critical care nursing.
Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M
2010-10-01
The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.
Professional confidence: a concept analysis.
Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana
2012-03-01
Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ruangmee, Arrisa; Sangwichien, Chayanoot
2013-01-01
Highlights: • The cellulose of pretreated sample was higher than untreated sample. • Lower hemicellulose and lignin were enhanced of hydrolyzed cellulose to sugar. • The predicted result of enzymatic hydrolysis process was fitted by quadratic model. • Predicted data was good agreement with the experimental data; with 95% confidence. - Abstract: Narrow-leaf cattail was employed as lignocellulosic biomass substrate for the investigation of the hydrolysis process of lignocellulosic ethanol. Cellulose saccharification into a high yield of fermentable sugar is an important step in ethanol production. Response surface methodology was utilized in the study of variables affecting enzymatic hydrolysis on the released glucose and xylose. Five levels (−2, −1, 0, +1, +2) of independent variable factors; cellulase (5–25 FPU/g substrate), β-glucosidase (0–20 U/g substrate), hydrolysis temperature (30–50 °C), and hydrolysis time (24–96 h), were randomly setup by using the Design of Experiment program. The significance of the regression model was high; with 95% confidence interval (less than 5% error). The predicted result after optimization was also in good agreement with the experimental data. An optimal condition; 13.50 FPU/g substrate, 16.50 U/g substrate, 50 °C and 24 h, was obtained, yielding a released glucose of 552.9 mg/g substrate (75.6% saccharification) and a released xylose of 74.0 mg/g substrate (45.6% saccharification)
Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale
McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven
2006-01-01
The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…
Alparslan-Gok, S.Z.; Brânzei, R.; Tijs, S.H.
2008-01-01
In this paper, convex interval games are introduced and some characterizations are given. Some economic situations leading to convex interval games are discussed. The Weber set and the Shapley value are defined for a suitable class of interval games and their relations with the interval core for
Normal probability plots with confidence.
Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang
2015-01-01
Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Methodology for building confidence measures
Bramson, Aaron L.
2004-04-01
This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.
Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edwin Le Heron
2006-12-01
Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.
Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne
2004-01-01
A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distri...
Grewal, D S; Brar, G S; Jain, R; Grewal, S P S
2011-05-01
To compare the performance of anterior chamber volume (ACV) and anterior chamber depth (ACD) obtained using Scheimpflug imaging with angle opening distance (AOD500) and trabecular-iris space area (TISA500) obtained using spectral domain anterior segment optical coherence tomography (SD-ASOCT) in detecting narrow angles classified using gonioscopy. In this prospective, cross-sectional observational study, 265 eyes of 265 consecutive patients underwent sequential Scheimpflug imaging, SD-ASOCT imaging, and gonioscopy. Correlations between gonioscopy grading, ACV, ACD, AOD500, and TISA500 were evaluated. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios (LRs) were calculated to assess the performance of ACV, ACD, AOD500, and TISA500 in detecting narrow angles (defined as Shaffer grade ≤1 in all quadrants). SD-ASOCT images were obtained at the nasal and temporal quadrants only. Twenty-eight eyes (10.6%) were classified as narrow angles on gonioscopy. ACV correlated with gonioscopy grading (P<0.001) for temporal (r=0.204), superior (r=0.251), nasal (r=0.213), and inferior (r=0.236) quadrants. ACV correlated with TISA500 for nasal (r=0.135, P=0.029) and temporal (P=0.160, P=0.009) quadrants and also with AOD500 for nasal (r=0.498, P<0.001) and temporal (r=0.517, P<0.001) quadrants. For detection of narrow angles, ACV (AUC=0.935; 95% confidence interval (CI) =0.898-0.961) performed similar to ACD (AUC=0.88, P=0.06) and significantly better than AOD500 nasal (AUC=0.761, P=0.001), AOD500 temporal (AUC=0.808, P<0.001), TISA500 nasal (AUC=0.756, P<0.001), and TISA500 temporal (AUC=0.738, P<0.001). Using a cutoff of 113 mm(3), ACV had 90% sensitivity and 88% specificity for detecting narrow angles. Positive and negative LRs for ACV were 8.63 (95% CI=7.4-10.0) and 0.11 (95% CI=0.03-0.4), respectively. ACV measurements using Scheimpflug imaging outperformed AOD500 and TISA500 using SD-ASOCT for detecting narrow angles.
Leadership by Confidence in Teams
Kobayashi, Hajime; Suehiro, Hideo
2008-01-01
We study endogenous signaling by analyzing a team production problem with endogenous timing. Each agent of the team is privately endowed with some level of confidence about team productivity. Each of them must then commit a level of effort in one of two periods. At the end of each period, each agent observes his partner' s move in this period. Both agents are rewarded by a team output determined by team productivity and total invested effort. Each agent must personally incur the cost of effor...
Towards confidence in transport safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Robison, R.W.
1992-01-01
The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) plans to demonstrate to the public that high-level waste can be transported safely to the proposed repository. The author argues US DOE should begin now to demonstrate its commitment to safety by developing an extraordinary safety program for nuclear cargo it is now shipping. The program for current shipments should be developed with State, Tribal, and local officials. Social scientists should be involved in evaluating the effect of the safety program on public confidence. The safety program developed in cooperation with western states for shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot plant is a good basis for designing that extraordinary safety program
Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haixiang Zang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, runs test (RT, and relevance vector machine (RVM. First, in order to reduce the complexity of data, the original wind power sequence is decomposed into a plurality of intrinsic mode function (IMF components and residual (RES component by using EEMD. Next, we use the RT method to reconstruct the components and obtain three new components characterized by the fine-to-coarse order. Finally, we obtain the overall forecasting results (with preestablished confidence levels by superimposing the forecasting results of each new component. Our results show that, compared with existing methods, our proposed short-term interval forecasting method has less forecasting errors, narrower interval widths, and larger interval coverage percentages. Ultimately, our forecasting model is more suitable for engineering applications and other forecasting methods for new energy.
Reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus.
Hudson-Lamb, Gavin C; Schoeman, Johan P; Hooijberg, Emma H; Heinrich, Sonja K; Tordiffe, Adrian S W
2016-02-26
Published haematologic and serum biochemistry reference intervals are very scarce for captive cheetahs and even more for free-ranging cheetahs. The current study was performed to establish reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs. Baseline serum biochemistry analytes were analysed from 66 healthy Namibian cheetahs. Samples were collected from 30 captive cheetahs at the AfriCat Foundation and 36 free-ranging cheetahs from central Namibia. The effects of captivity-status, age, sex and haemolysis score on the tested serum analytes were investigated. The biochemistry analytes that were measured were sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, urea and creatinine. The 90% confidence interval of the reference limits was obtained using the non-parametric bootstrap method. Reference intervals were preferentially determined by the non-parametric method and were as follows: sodium (128 mmol/L - 166 mmol/L), potassium (3.9 mmol/L - 5.2 mmol/L), magnesium (0.8 mmol/L - 1.2 mmol/L), chloride (97 mmol/L - 130 mmol/L), urea (8.2 mmol/L - 25.1 mmol/L) and creatinine (88 µmol/L - 288 µmol/L). Reference intervals from the current study were compared with International Species Information System values for cheetahs and found to be narrower. Moreover, age, sex and haemolysis score had no significant effect on the serum analytes in this study. Separate reference intervals for captive and free-ranging cheetahs were also determined. Captive cheetahs had higher urea values, most likely due to dietary factors. This study is the first to establish reference intervals for serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs according to international guidelines. These results can be used for future health and disease assessments in both captive and free-ranging cheetahs.
Reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gavin C. Hudson-Lamb
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Published haematologic and serum biochemistry reference intervals are very scarce for captive cheetahs and even more for free-ranging cheetahs. The current study was performed to establish reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs. Baseline serum biochemistry analytes were analysed from 66 healthy Namibian cheetahs. Samples were collected from 30 captive cheetahs at the AfriCat Foundation and 36 free-ranging cheetahs from central Namibia. The effects of captivity-status, age, sex and haemolysis score on the tested serum analytes were investigated. The biochemistry analytes that were measured were sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, urea and creatinine. The 90% confidence interval of the reference limits was obtained using the non-parametric bootstrap method. Reference intervals were preferentially determined by the non-parametric method and were as follows: sodium (128 mmol/L – 166 mmol/L, potassium (3.9 mmol/L – 5.2 mmol/L, magnesium (0.8 mmol/L – 1.2 mmol/L, chloride (97 mmol/L – 130 mmol/L, urea (8.2 mmol/L – 25.1 mmol/L and creatinine (88 µmol/L – 288 µmol/L. Reference intervals from the current study were compared with International Species Information System values for cheetahs and found to be narrower. Moreover, age, sex and haemolysis score had no significant effect on the serum analytes in this study. Separate reference intervals for captive and free-ranging cheetahs were also determined. Captive cheetahs had higher urea values, most likely due to dietary factors. This study is the first to establish reference intervals for serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs according to international guidelines. These results can be used for future health and disease assessments in both captive and free-ranging cheetahs.
Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.
2000-01-01
The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)
The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership
Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison
2013-01-01
Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.
Matsakis, Nicholas D.; Gross, Thomas R.
Intervals are a new, higher-level primitive for parallel programming with which programmers directly construct the program schedule. Programs using intervals can be statically analyzed to ensure that they do not deadlock or contain data races. In this paper, we demonstrate the flexibility of intervals by showing how to use them to emulate common parallel control-flow constructs like barriers and signals, as well as higher-level patterns such as bounded-buffer producer-consumer. We have implemented intervals as a publicly available library for Java and Scala.
Public confidence and nuclear energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chaussade, J.P.
1990-01-01
Today in France there are 54 nuclear power units in operation at 18 sites. They supply 75% of all electricity produced, 12% of which is exported to neighbouring countries, and play an important role in the French economy. For the French, nuclear power is a fact of life, and most accept it. However, the accident of Chernobyl has made public opinion more sensitive, and the public relations work has had to be reconsidered carefully with a view to increase the confidence of the French public in nuclear power, anticipating media crises and being equipped to deal with such crises. The three main approaches are the following: keeping the public better informed, providing clear information at time of crisis and international activities
Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette
. Results The students identified their major learning outcomes as transfer of operational skills, experiencing self-efficacy and enhanced understanding of the patients' perspective.Involving simulated patients in the training of technical skills contributed to the development of the students' communication......Knowledge, self confidence and courage – long lasting learning outcomes through simulation in a clinical context. Hanne Selberg1, Jette Hovedskov2, Jette Steenberg Holtzmann2 The significance and methodology of the researchThe study focuses on simulation alongside the clinical practice and linked...... Development, Clinical Lecturer, Metropolitan University College, Faculty of Nursing, Email: hase@phoe.dk, phone: +45-72282830. 2. Jette Hovedskov, RN, Development Consultant, Glostrup University Hospital, Department of Development Email : jeho@glo.regionh.dk ,phone: +45- 43232090 3. Jette Holtzmann Steenberg...
Narrow gap electronegative capacitive discharges
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kawamura, E.; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States)
2013-10-15
Narrow gap electronegative (EN) capacitive discharges are widely used in industry and have unique features not found in conventional discharges. In this paper, plasma parameters are determined over a range of decreasing gap length L from values for which an electropositive (EP) edge exists (2-region case) to smaller L-values for which the EN region connects directly to the sheath (1-region case). Parametric studies are performed at applied voltage V{sub rf}=500 V for pressures of 10, 25, 50, and 100 mTorr, and additionally at 50 mTorr for 1000 and 2000 V. Numerical results are given for a parallel plate oxygen discharge using a planar 1D3v (1 spatial dimension, 3 velocity components) particle-in-cell (PIC) code. New interesting phenomena are found for the case in which an EP edge does not exist. This 1-region case has not previously been investigated in detail, either numerically or analytically. In particular, attachment in the sheaths is important, and the central electron density n{sub e0} is depressed below the density n{sub esh} at the sheath edge. The sheath oscillations also extend into the EN core, creating an edge region lying within the sheath and not characterized by the standard diffusion in an EN plasma. An analytical model is developed using minimal inputs from the PIC results, and compared to the PIC results for a base case at V{sub rf}=500 V and 50 mTorr, showing good agreement. Selected comparisons are made at the other voltages and pressures. A self-consistent model is also developed and compared to the PIC results, giving reasonable agreement.
Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.
Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E
2015-10-01
Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.
Confidence building in safety assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grundfelt, Bertil
1999-01-01
Future generations should be adequately protected from damage caused by the present disposal of radioactive waste. This presentation discusses the core of safety and performance assessment: The demonstration and building of confidence that the disposal system meets the safety requirements stipulated by society. The major difficulty is to deal with risks in the very long time perspective of the thousands of years during which the waste is hazardous. Concern about these problems has stimulated the development of the safety assessment discipline. The presentation concentrates on two of the elements of safety assessment: (1) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and (2) validation and review. Uncertainty is associated both with respect to what is the proper conceptual model and with respect to parameter values for a given model. A special kind of uncertainty derives from the variation of a property in space. Geostatistics is one approach to handling spatial variability. The simplest way of doing a sensitivity analysis is to offset the model parameters one by one and observe how the model output changes. The validity of the models and data used to make predictions is central to the credibility of safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. There are several definitions of model validation. The presentation discusses it as a process and highlights some aspects of validation methodologies
Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baayen, C; Hougaard, P
2015-01-01
An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...
Smadi, Mahmoud A.; Ghaeb, Jasim A.; Jazzar, Saleh; Saraereh, Omar A.
2012-01-01
In this paper, we derived an efficient simulation method to evaluate the error rate of wireless communication system. Coherent binary phase-shift keying system is considered with imperfect channel phase recovery. The results presented demonstrate
Optimizing lengths of confidence intervals: fourth-order efficiency in location models
Klaassen, C.; Venetiaan, S.
2010-01-01
Under regularity conditions the maximum likelihood estimator of the location parameter in a location model is asymptotically efficient among translation equivariant estimators. Additional regularity conditions warrant third- and even fourth-order efficiency, in the sense that no translation
1981-12-01
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Traversaro, Francisco; O. Redelico, Francisco
2018-04-01
In nonlinear dynamics, and to a lesser extent in other fields, a widely used measure of complexity is the Permutation Entropy. But there is still no known method to determine the accuracy of this measure. There has been little research on the statistical properties of this quantity that characterize time series. The literature describes some resampling methods of quantities used in nonlinear dynamics - as the largest Lyapunov exponent - but these seems to fail. In this contribution, we propose a parametric bootstrap methodology using a symbolic representation of the time series to obtain the distribution of the Permutation Entropy estimator. We perform several time series simulations given by well-known stochastic processes: the 1/fα noise family, and show in each case that the proposed accuracy measure is as efficient as the one obtained by the frequentist approach of repeating the experiment. The complexity of brain electrical activity, measured by the Permutation Entropy, has been extensively used in epilepsy research for detection in dynamical changes in electroencephalogram (EEG) signal with no consideration of the variability of this complexity measure. An application of the parametric bootstrap methodology is used to compare normal and pre-ictal EEG signals.
Pek, Jolynn; Losardo, Diane; Bauer, Daniel J.
2011-01-01
Compared to parametric models, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches to modeling nonlinearity between latent variables have the advantage of recovering global relationships of unknown functional form. Bauer (2005) proposed an indirect application of finite mixtures of structural equation models where latent components are estimated in the…
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McLoughlin, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2016-01-22
The software application “MetaQuant” was developed by our group at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). It is designed to profile microbial populations in a sample using data from whole-genome shotgun (WGS) metagenomic DNA sequencing. Several other metagenomic profiling applications have been described in the literature. We ran a series of benchmark tests to compare the performance of MetaQuant against that of a few existing profiling tools, using real and simulated sequence datasets. This report describes our benchmarking procedure and results.
Bayesian Methods and Confidence Intervals for Automatic Target Recognition of SAR Canonical Shapes
2014-03-27
and DirectX [22]. The CUDA platform was developed by the NVIDIA Corporation to allow programmers access to the computational capabilities of the...were used for the intense repetitive computations. Developing CUDA software requires writing code for specialized compilers provided by NVIDIA and
Statistical Significance, Effect Size Reporting, and Confidence Intervals: Best Reporting Strategies
Capraro, Robert M.
2004-01-01
With great interest the author read the May 2002 editorial in the "Journal for Research in Mathematics Education (JRME)" (King, 2002) regarding changes to the 5th edition of the "Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association" (APA, 2001). Of special note to him, and of great import to the field of mathematics education research, are…
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McLoughlin, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2016-01-11
The overall aim of this project is to develop a software package, called MetaQuant, that can determine the constituents of a complex microbial sample and estimate their relative abundances by analysis of metagenomic sequencing data. The goal for Task 1 is to create a generative model describing the stochastic process underlying the creation of sequence read pairs in the data set. The stages in this generative process include the selection of a source genome sequence for each read pair, with probability dependent on its abundance in the sample. The other stages describe the evolution of the source genome from its nearest common ancestor with a reference genome, breakage of the source DNA into short fragments, and the errors in sequencing the ends of the fragments to produce read pairs.
High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs
Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...
Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.
Achilles, C. M.; And Others
1985-01-01
Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)
Device Physics of Narrow Gap Semiconductors
Chu, Junhao
2010-01-01
Narrow gap semiconductors obey the general rules of semiconductor science, but often exhibit extreme features of these rules because of the same properties that produce their narrow gaps. Consequently these materials provide sensitive tests of theory, and the opportunity for the design of innovative devices. Narrow gap semiconductors are the most important materials for the preparation of advanced modern infrared systems. Device Physics of Narrow Gap Semiconductors offers descriptions of the materials science and device physics of these unique materials. Topics covered include impurities and defects, recombination mechanisms, surface and interface properties, and the properties of low dimensional systems for infrared applications. This book will help readers to understand not only the semiconductor physics and materials science, but also how they relate to advanced opto-electronic devices. The last chapter applies the understanding of device physics to photoconductive detectors, photovoltaic infrared detector...
Overconfidence in Interval Estimates
Soll, Jack B.; Klayman, Joshua
2004-01-01
Judges were asked to make numerical estimates (e.g., "In what year was the first flight of a hot air balloon?"). Judges provided high and low estimates such that they were X% sure that the correct answer lay between them. They exhibited substantial overconfidence: The correct answer fell inside their intervals much less than X% of the time. This…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiuhe Lv
Full Text Available Magnifying endoscopy with narrow-band imaging (ME-NBI is a novel, image-enhanced endoscopic technique for differentiating gastrointestinal neoplasms and potentially enabling pathological diagnosis.The aim of this analysis was to assess the diagnostic performance of ME-NBI for gastric neoplasms.We performed a systematic search of the PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases for relevant studies. Meta-DiSc (version 1.4 and STATA (version 11.0 software were used for the data analysis. Random effects models were used to assess diagnostic efficacy. Heterogeneity was tested by the Q statistic and I2 statistic. Meta-regression was used to analyze the sources of heterogeneity.A total of 10 studies, with 2151 lesions, were included. The pooled characteristics of these studies were as follows: sensitivity 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81-0.89, specificity 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-0.97, and area under the curve (AUC 0.9647. In the subgroup analysis, which compared the diagnostic efficacy of ME-NBI and white light imaging (WLI, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of ME-NBI were 0.87 (95% CI: 0.80-0.92 and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.95, respectively, and the area under the curve (AUC was 0.9556. In contrast, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of WLI were 0.61 (95% CI: 0.53-0.69 and 0.65 (95% CI: 0.60-0.69, respectively, and the area under the curve (AUC was 0.6772.ME-NBI presents a high diagnostic value for gastric neoplasms and has a high specificity.
Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence
Applications of interval computations
Kreinovich, Vladik
1996-01-01
Primary Audience for the Book • Specialists in numerical computations who are interested in algorithms with automatic result verification. • Engineers, scientists, and practitioners who desire results with automatic verification and who would therefore benefit from the experience of suc cessful applications. • Students in applied mathematics and computer science who want to learn these methods. Goal Of the Book This book contains surveys of applications of interval computations, i. e. , appli cations of numerical methods with automatic result verification, that were pre sented at an international workshop on the subject in EI Paso, Texas, February 23-25, 1995. The purpose of this book is to disseminate detailed and surveyed information about existing and potential applications of this new growing field. Brief Description of the Papers At the most fundamental level, interval arithmetic operations work with sets: The result of a single arithmetic operation is the set of all possible results as the o...
The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.
Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony
2013-12-01
The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand.
Highly Tunable Narrow Bandpass MEMS Filter
Hafiz, Md Abdullah Al
2017-07-07
We demonstrate a proof-of-concept highly tunable narrow bandpass filter based on electrothermally and electrostatically actuated microelectromechanical-system (MEMS) resonators. The device consists of two mechanically uncoupled clamped-clamped arch resonators, designed such that their resonance frequencies are independently tuned to obtain the desired narrow passband. Through the electrothermal and electrostatic actuation, the stiffness of the structures is highly tunable. We experimentally demonstrate significant percentage tuning (~125%) of the filter center frequency by varying the applied electrothermal voltages to the resonating structures, while maintaining a narrow passband of 550 ± 50 Hz, a stopband rejection of >17 dB, and a passband ripple ≤ 2.5 dB. An analytical model based on the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used to confirm the behavior of the filter, and the origin of the high tunability using electrothermal actuation is discussed.
Natural Convective Heat Transfer from Narrow Plates
Oosthuizen, Patrick H
2013-01-01
Natural Convective Heat Transfer from Narrow Plates deals with a heat transfer situation that is of significant practical importance but which is not adequately dealt with in any existing textbooks or in any widely available review papers. The aim of the book is to introduce the reader to recent studies of natural convection from narrow plates including the effects of plate edge conditions, plate inclination, thermal conditions at the plate surface and interaction of the flows over adjacent plates. Both numerical and experimental studies are discussed and correlation equations based on the results of these studies are reviewed.
A naturally narrow positive-parity Θ+
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carlson, Carl E.; Carone, Christopher D.; Kwee, Herry J.; Nazaryan, Vahagn
2004-01-01
We present a consistent color-flavor-spin-orbital wave function for a positive-parity Θ + that naturally explains the observed narrowness of the state. The wave function is totally symmetric in its flavor-spin part and totally antisymmetric in its color-orbital part. If flavor-spin interactions dominate, this wave function renders the positive-parity Θ + lighter than its negative-parity counterpart. We consider decays of the Θ + and compute the overlap of this state with the kinematically allowed final states. Our results are numerically small. We note that dynamical correlations between quarks are not necessary to obtain narrow pentaquark widths
Narrow Escape of Interacting Diffusing Particles
Agranov, Tal; Meerson, Baruch
2018-03-01
The narrow escape problem deals with the calculation of the mean escape time (MET) of a Brownian particle from a bounded domain through a small hole on the domain's boundary. Here we develop a formalism which allows us to evaluate the nonescape probability of a gas of diffusing particles that may interact with each other. In some cases the nonescape probability allows us to evaluate the MET of the first particle. The formalism is based on the fluctuating hydrodynamics and the recently developed macroscopic fluctuation theory. We also uncover an unexpected connection between the narrow escape of interacting particles and thermal runaway in chemical reactors.
Surveillance test interval optimization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.
1995-01-01
Technical specifications have been developed on the bases of deterministic analyses, engineering judgment, and expert opinion. This paper introduces our risk-based approach to surveillance test interval (STI) optimization. This approach consists of three main levels. The first level is the component level, which serves as a rough estimation of the optimal STI and can be calculated analytically by a differentiating equation for mean unavailability. The second and third levels give more representative results. They take into account the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) calculated by a personal computer (PC) based code and are based on system unavailability at the system level and on core damage frequency at the plant level
Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J
1998-09-01
To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.
Ruette, Sylvie
2017-01-01
The aim of this book is to survey the relations between the various kinds of chaos and related notions for continuous interval maps from a topological point of view. The papers on this topic are numerous and widely scattered in the literature; some of them are little known, difficult to find, or originally published in Russian, Ukrainian, or Chinese. Dynamical systems given by the iteration of a continuous map on an interval have been broadly studied because they are simple but nevertheless exhibit complex behaviors. They also allow numerical simulations, which enabled the discovery of some chaotic phenomena. Moreover, the "most interesting" part of some higher-dimensional systems can be of lower dimension, which allows, in some cases, boiling it down to systems in dimension one. Some of the more recent developments such as distributional chaos, the relation between entropy and Li-Yorke chaos, sequence entropy, and maps with infinitely many branches are presented in book form for the first time. The author gi...
Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Oshins
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.
Consumer confidence or the business cycle
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper
2014-01-01
Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...
Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking
Kramer, Marc M.
2016-01-01
We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.
Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition
Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail
2018-01-01
We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…
Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence
Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten
2009-01-01
A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.
Self-confidence and metacognitive processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kleitman Sabina
2005-01-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.
Narrow linewidth pulsed optical parametric oscillator
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Tunable narrow linewidth radiation by optical parametric oscillation has many applications, particularly in spectroscopic investigation. In this paper, different techniques such as injection seeding, use of spectral selecting element like grating, grating and etalon in combination, grazing angle of incidence, entangled cavity ...
Sun, Changling; Han, Xue; Li, Xiaoying; Zhang, Yayun; Du, Xiaodong
2017-04-01
Objective To evaluate the performance of narrow band imaging (NBI) for the diagnosis of laryngeal cancer and to compare the diagnostic value of NBI with that of white light endoscopy. Data Sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and CNKI databases. Review Methods Data analyses were performed with Meta-DiSc. The updated Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool was used to assess study quality and potential bias. Publication bias was assessed with the Deeks's asymmetry test. The protocol used in this article has been published on PROSPERO and is in accordance with the PRISMA checklist. The registry number for this study is CRD42015025866. Results Six studies including 716 lesions were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio for the NBI diagnosis of laryngeal cancer were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.91-0.96), 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.92), and 142.12 (95% CI: 46.42-435.15), respectively, and the area under receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.97. Among the 6 studies, 3 evaluated the diagnostic value of white light endoscopy, with a sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76-0.86), a specificity of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95), and a diagnostic odds ratio of 33.82 (95% CI: 14.76-77.49). The evaluation of heterogeneity, calculated per the diagnostic odds ratio, gave an I 2 of 66%. No marked publication bias ( P = .84) was detected in this meta-analysis. Conclusion The sensitivity of NBI is superior to white light endoscopy, and the potential value of NBI needs to be validated in future studies.
Interval methods: An introduction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Achenie, L.E.K.; Kreinovich, V.; Madsen, Kaj
2006-01-01
This chapter contains selected papers presented at the Minisymposium on Interval Methods of the PARA'04 Workshop '' State-of-the-Art in Scientific Computing ''. The emphasis of the workshop was on high-performance computing (HPC). The ongoing development of ever more advanced computers provides...... the potential for solving increasingly difficult computational problems. However, given the complexity of modern computer architectures, the task of realizing this potential needs careful attention. A main concern of HPC is the development of software that optimizes the performance of a given computer....... An important characteristic of the computer performance in scientific computing is the accuracy of the Computation results. Often, we can estimate this accuracy by using traditional statistical techniques. However, in many practical situations, we do not know the probability distributions of different...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Turko, B.T.
1983-10-01
A CAMAC based modular multichannel interval timer is described. The timer comprises twelve high resolution time digitizers with a common start enabling twelve independent stop inputs. Ten time ranges from 2.5 μs to 1.3 μs can be preset. Time can be read out in twelve 24-bit words either via CAMAC Crate Controller or an external FIFO register. LSB time calibration is 78.125 ps. An additional word reads out the operational status of twelve stop channels. The system consists of two modules. The analog module contains a reference clock and 13 analog time stretchers. The digital module contains counters, logic and interface circuits. The timer has an excellent differential linearity, thermal stability and crosstalk free performance
Experimenting with musical intervals
Lo Presto, Michael C.
2003-07-01
When two tuning forks of different frequency are sounded simultaneously the result is a complex wave with a repetition frequency that is the fundamental of the harmonic series to which both frequencies belong. The ear perceives this 'musical interval' as a single musical pitch with a sound quality produced by the harmonic spectrum responsible for the waveform. This waveform can be captured and displayed with data collection hardware and software. The fundamental frequency can then be calculated and compared with what would be expected from the frequencies of the tuning forks. Also, graphing software can be used to determine equations for the waveforms and predict their shapes. This experiment could be used in an introductory physics or musical acoustics course as a practical lesson in superposition of waves, basic Fourier series and the relationship between some of the ear's subjective perceptions of sound and the physical properties of the waves that cause them.
Interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder.
Gunnes, Nina; Surén, Pål; Bresnahan, Michaeline; Hornig, Mady; Lie, Kari Kveim; Lipkin, W Ian; Magnus, Per; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted; Schjølberg, Synnve; Susser, Ezra Saul; Øyen, Anne-Siri; Stoltenberg, Camilla
2013-11-01
A recent California study reported increased risk of autistic disorder in children conceived within a year after the birth of a sibling. We assessed the association between interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder using nationwide registry data on pairs of singleton full siblings born in Norway. We defined interpregnancy interval as the time from birth of the first-born child to conception of the second-born child in a sibship. The outcome of interest was autistic disorder in the second-born child. Analyses were restricted to sibships in which the second-born child was born in 1990-2004. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by fitting ordinary logistic models and logistic generalized additive models. The study sample included 223,476 singleton full-sibling pairs. In sibships with interpregnancy intervals autistic disorder, compared with 0.13% in the reference category (≥ 36 months). For interpregnancy intervals shorter than 9 months, the adjusted OR of autistic disorder in the second-born child was 2.18 (95% confidence interval 1.42-3.26). The risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child was also increased for interpregnancy intervals of 9-11 months in the adjusted analysis (OR = 1.71 [95% CI = 1.07-2.64]). Consistent with a previous report from California, interpregnancy intervals shorter than 1 year were associated with increased risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child. A possible explanation is depletion of micronutrients in mothers with closely spaced pregnancies.
Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F
2016-12-01
The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.
Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R
2010-01-01
Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.
Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Umeki, Hiroyuki
2004-01-01
Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)
Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni
2011-01-01
of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...
Evolution of deformation velocity in narrowing for Zircaloy 2
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cetlin, P R [Minas Gerais Univ., Belo Horizonte (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Metalurgica; Okuda, M Y [Goias Univ., Goiania (Brazil). Inst. de Matematica e Fisica
1980-09-01
Some studies on the deformation instability in strain shows that the differences in this instability may lead to localized narrowing or elongated narrowing, for Zircaloy-2. The variation of velocity deformation with the narrowing evolution is expected to be different for these two cases. The mentioned variation is discussed, a great difference in behavior having been observed for the case of localized narrowing.
Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frank Müller
2017-08-01
Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS
An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration
Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam
1994-01-01
In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.
Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments
de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal
2015-01-01
Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275
Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan
2012-01-01
It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...
How do regulators measure public confidence?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.
2006-01-01
The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)
Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.
Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven
2013-10-23
The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.
[Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].
Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka
2006-04-01
The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.
Analytical approximations for wide and narrow resonances
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suster, Luis Carlos; Martinez, Aquilino Senra; Silva, Fernando Carvalho da
2005-01-01
This paper aims at developing analytical expressions for the adjoint neutron spectrum in the resonance energy region, taking into account both narrow and wide resonance approximations, in order to reduce the numerical computations involved. These analytical expressions, besides reducing computing time, are very simple from a mathematical point of view. The results obtained with this analytical formulation were compared to a reference solution obtained with a numerical method previously developed to solve the neutron balance adjoint equations. Narrow and wide resonances of U 238 were treated and the analytical procedure gave satisfactory results as compared with the reference solution, for the resonance energy range. The adjoint neutron spectrum is useful to determine the neutron resonance absorption, so that multigroup adjoint cross sections used by the adjoint diffusion equation can be obtained. (author)
Analytical approximations for wide and narrow resonances
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Suster, Luis Carlos; Martinez, Aquilino Senra; Silva, Fernando Carvalho da [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia. Programa de Engenharia Nuclear]. E-mail: aquilino@lmp.ufrj.br
2005-07-01
This paper aims at developing analytical expressions for the adjoint neutron spectrum in the resonance energy region, taking into account both narrow and wide resonance approximations, in order to reduce the numerical computations involved. These analytical expressions, besides reducing computing time, are very simple from a mathematical point of view. The results obtained with this analytical formulation were compared to a reference solution obtained with a numerical method previously developed to solve the neutron balance adjoint equations. Narrow and wide resonances of U{sup 238} were treated and the analytical procedure gave satisfactory results as compared with the reference solution, for the resonance energy range. The adjoint neutron spectrum is useful to determine the neutron resonance absorption, so that multigroup adjoint cross sections used by the adjoint diffusion equation can be obtained. (author)
Dose evaluation of narrow-beam
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goto, Shinichi
1999-01-01
Reliability of the dose from the narrow photon beam becomes more important since the single high-dose rate radiosurgery becoming popular. The dose evaluation for the optimal dose is difficult due to absence of lateral electronic equilibrium. Data necessary for treatment regimen are TMR (tissue maximum ratio), OCR (off center ratio) and S c,p (total scatter factor). The narrow-beam was 10 MV X-ray from Varian Clinac 2100C equipped with cylindrical Fischer collimator CBI system. Detection was performed by Kodak XV-2 film, a PTW natural diamond detector M60003, Scanditronics silicon detector EDD-5 or Fujitec micro-chamber FDC-9.4C. Phantoms were the water equivalent one (PTW, RW3), water one (PTW, MP3 system) and Wellhofer WP600 system. Factors above were actually measured to reveal that in the dose evaluation of narrow photon beam, TMR should be measured by micro-chamber, OCR, by film, and S c,p , by the two. The use of diamond detector was recommended for more precise measurement and evaluation of the dose. The importance of water phantom in the radiosurgery system was also shown. (K.H.)
Electron correlations in narrow band systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kishore, R.
1983-01-01
The effect of the electron correlations in narrow bands, such as d(f) bands in the transition (rare earth) metals and their compounds and the impurity bands in doped semiconductors is studied. The narrow band systems is described, by the Hubbard Hamiltonian. By proposing a local self-energy for the interacting electron, it is found that the results are exact in both atomic and band limits and reduce to the Hartree Fock results for U/Δ → 0, where U is the intra-atomic Coulomb interaction and Δ is the bandwidth of the noninteracting electrons. For the Lorentzian form of the density of states of the noninteracting electrons, this approximation turns out to be equivalent to the third Hubbard approximation. A simple argument, based on the mean free path obtained from the imaginary part of the self energy, shows how the electron correlations can give rise to a discontinous metal-nonmetal transition as proposed by Mott. The band narrowing and the existence of the satellite below the Fermi energy in Ni, found in photoemission experiments, can also be understood. (Author) [pt
CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND/VS. STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. CASE STUDY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ILEANA BRUDIU
2009-05-01
Full Text Available Estimated parameters with confidence intervals and testing statistical assumptions used in statistical analysis to obtain conclusions on research from a sample extracted from the population. Paper to the case study presented aims to highlight the importance of volume of sample taken in the study and how this reflects on the results obtained when using confidence intervals and testing for pregnant. If statistical testing hypotheses not only give an answer "yes" or "no" to some questions of statistical estimation using statistical confidence intervals provides more information than a test statistic, show high degree of uncertainty arising from small samples and findings build in the "marginally significant" or "almost significant (p very close to 0.05.
Pool Boiling CHF in Inclined Narrow Annuli
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Myeong Gie
2010-01-01
Pool boiling heat transfer has been studied extensively since it is frequently encountered in various heat transfer equipment. Recently, it has been widely investigated in nuclear power plants for application to the advanced light water reactors designs. Through the review on the published results it can be concluded that knowledge on the combined effects of the surface orientation and a confined space on pool boiling heat transfer is of great practical importance and also of great academic interest. Fujita et al. investigated pool boiling heat transfer, from boiling inception to the critical heat flux (CHF, q' CHF ), in a confined narrow space between heated and unheated parallel rectangular plates. They identified that both the confined space and the surface orientation changed heat transfer much. Kim and Suh changed the surface orientation angles of a downward heating rectangular channel having a narrow gap from the downward-facing position (180 .deg.) to the vertical position (90 .deg.). They observed that the CHF generally decreased as the inclination angle (θ ) increased. Yao and Chang studied pool boiling heat transfer in a confined heat transfer for vertical narrow annuli with closed bottoms. They observed that when the gap size ( s ) of the annulus was decreased the effect of space confinement to boiling heat transfer increased. The CHF was occurred at much lower value for the confined space comparing to the unconfined pool boiling. Pool boiling heat transfer in narrow horizontal annular crevices was studied by Hung and Yao. They concluded that the CHF decreased with decreasing gap size of the annuli and described the importance of the thin film evaporation to explain the lower CHF of narrow crevices. The effect of the inclination angle on the CHF on countercurrent boiling in an inclined uniformly heated tube with closed bottoms was also studied by Liu et al. They concluded that the CHF reduced with the inclination angle decrease. A study was carried out
Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.
Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew
2015-01-01
Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers
Confidence-building and Canadian leadership
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)
1998-07-01
Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)
Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.
Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan
2015-11-01
People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.
ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fernando Luis, Gache
2010-01-01
Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.
Confidence-building and Canadian leadership
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cleminson, F.R.
1998-01-01
Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)
Vleugels, Jasper L A; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Hazewinkel, Yark; Wanders, Linda K; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien
2018-05-01
Real-time differentiation of diminutive polyps (1-5 mm) during endoscopy could replace histopathology analysis. According to guidelines, implementation of optical diagnosis into routine practice would require it to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions with a negative predictive value (NPV) of more than 90%, using histologic findings as a reference, and agreement with histology-based surveillance intervals for more than 90% of cases. We performed a prospective study with 39 endoscopists accredited to perform colonoscopies on participants with positive results from fecal immunochemical tests in the Bowel Cancer Screening Program at 13 centers in the Netherlands. Endoscopists were trained in optical diagnosis using a validated module (Workgroup serrAted polypS and Polyposis). After meeting predefined performance thresholds in the training program, the endoscopists started a 1-year program (continuation phase) in which they performed narrow band imaging analyses during colonoscopies of participants in the screening program and predicted histological findings with confidence levels. The endoscopists were randomly assigned to groups that received feedback or no feedback on the accuracy of their predictions. Primary outcome measures were endoscopists' abilities to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions (using histology as a reference) with NPVs of 90% or more, and selecting surveillance intervals that agreed with those determined by histology for at least 90% of cases. Of 39 endoscopists initially trained, 27 (69%) completed the training program. During the continuation phase, these 27 endoscopists performed 3144 colonoscopies in which 4504 diminutive polyps were removed. The endoscopists identified neoplastic lesions with a pooled NPV of 90.8% (95% confidence interval 88.6-92.6); their proposed surveillance intervals agreed with those determined by histologic analysis for 95.4% of cases (95% confidence interval 94.0-96.6). Findings did not differ between the group
Determination of confidence limits for experiments with low numbers of counts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kraft, R.P.; Burrows, D.N.; Nousek, J.A.
1991-01-01
Two different methods, classical and Bayesian, for determining confidence intervals involving Poisson-distributed data are compared. Particular consideration is given to cases where the number of counts observed is small and is comparable to the mean number of background counts. Reasons for preferring the Bayesian over the classical method are given. Tables of confidence limits calculated by the Bayesian method are provided for quick reference. 12 refs
High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.
Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen
2018-06-01
We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.
Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V
2014-01-01
Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by
Bai, Jianwen; Shen, Zhenyao; Yan, Tiezhu; Qiu, Jiali; Li, Yangyang
2017-06-01
Pathogens in manure can cause waterborne-disease outbreaks, serious illness, and even death in humans. Therefore, information about the transformation and transport of bacteria is crucial for determining their source. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate fecal coliform bacteria load in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China. The data for the fecal coliform were obtained at three sampling sites, Chenying (CY), Gubeikou (GBK), and Xiahui (XH). The calibration processes of the fecal coliform were conducted using the CY and GBK sites, and validation was conducted at the XH site. An interval-to-interval approach was designed and incorporated into the processes of fecal coliform calibration and validation. The 95% confidence interval of the predicted values and the 95% confidence interval of measured values were considered during calibration and validation in the interval-to-interval approach. Compared with the traditional point-to-point comparison, this method can improve simulation accuracy. The results indicated that the simulation of fecal coliform using the interval-to-interval approach was reasonable for the watershed. This method could provide a new research direction for future model calibration and validation studies.
Confidence building - is science the only approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bragg, K.
1990-01-01
The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab
Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire
that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...
Cervical spinal canal narrowing in idiopathic syringomyelia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Struck, Aaron F.; Carr, Carrie M.; Shah, Vinil; Hesselink, John R.; Haughton, Victor M.
2016-01-01
The cervical spine in Chiari I patient with syringomyelia has significantly different anteroposterior diameters than it does in Chiari I patients without syringomyelia. We tested the hypothesis that patients with idiopathic syringomyelia (IS) also have abnormal cervical spinal canal diameters. The finding in both groups may relate to the pathogenesis of syringomyelia. Local institutional review boards approved this retrospective study. Patients with IS were compared to age-matched controls with normal sagittal spine MR. All subjects had T1-weighted spin-echo (500/20) and T2-weighted fast spin-echo (2000/90) sagittal cervical spine images at 1.5 T. Readers blinded to demographic data and study hypothesis measured anteroposterior diameters at each cervical level. The spinal canal diameters were compared with a Mann-Whitney U test. The overall difference was assessed with a Friedman test. Seventeen subjects were read by two reviewers to assess inter-rater reliability. Fifty IS patients with 50 age-matched controls were studied. IS subjects had one or more syrinxes varying from 1 to 19 spinal segments. Spinal canal diameters narrowed from C1 to C3 and then enlarged from C5 to C7 in both groups. Diameters from C2 to C4 were narrower in the IS group (p < 0.005) than in controls. The ratio of the C3 to the C7 diameters was also smaller (p = 0.004) in IS than controls. Collectively, the spinal canal diameters in the IS were significantly different from controls (Friedman test p < 0.0001). Patients with IS have abnormally narrow upper and mid cervical spinal canal diameters and greater positive tapering between C3 and C7. (orig.)
Cervical spinal canal narrowing in idiopathic syringomyelia
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Struck, Aaron F. [Massachusetts General Hospital, Department of Neurology, Boston, MA (United States); Carr, Carrie M. [Mayo Clinic, Department of Radiology, Rochester, MN (United States); Shah, Vinil [University of California San Francisco, Department of Radiology, San Francisco, CA (United States); Hesselink, John R. [University of California San Diego, Department of Radiology, San Diego, CA (United States); Haughton, Victor M. [University of Wisconsin, Department of Radiology, Madison, WI (United States)
2016-08-15
The cervical spine in Chiari I patient with syringomyelia has significantly different anteroposterior diameters than it does in Chiari I patients without syringomyelia. We tested the hypothesis that patients with idiopathic syringomyelia (IS) also have abnormal cervical spinal canal diameters. The finding in both groups may relate to the pathogenesis of syringomyelia. Local institutional review boards approved this retrospective study. Patients with IS were compared to age-matched controls with normal sagittal spine MR. All subjects had T1-weighted spin-echo (500/20) and T2-weighted fast spin-echo (2000/90) sagittal cervical spine images at 1.5 T. Readers blinded to demographic data and study hypothesis measured anteroposterior diameters at each cervical level. The spinal canal diameters were compared with a Mann-Whitney U test. The overall difference was assessed with a Friedman test. Seventeen subjects were read by two reviewers to assess inter-rater reliability. Fifty IS patients with 50 age-matched controls were studied. IS subjects had one or more syrinxes varying from 1 to 19 spinal segments. Spinal canal diameters narrowed from C1 to C3 and then enlarged from C5 to C7 in both groups. Diameters from C2 to C4 were narrower in the IS group (p < 0.005) than in controls. The ratio of the C3 to the C7 diameters was also smaller (p = 0.004) in IS than controls. Collectively, the spinal canal diameters in the IS were significantly different from controls (Friedman test p < 0.0001). Patients with IS have abnormally narrow upper and mid cervical spinal canal diameters and greater positive tapering between C3 and C7. (orig.)
Volume dips; spot price ranges narrow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1994-01-01
This article is the September 1994 uranium market summary. Volume in the spot concentrates market fell below 1 million lbs U3O8. In total, twelve deals took place compared to 28 deals in August. Of the twelve deals, three took place in the spot concentrates market, two took place in the medium and long-term market, three in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. Restricted prices weakened, but unrestricted prices firmed slightly. The enrichment price range narrowed a bit
f-band narrowing in uranium intermetallics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dunlap, B.D.; Litterst, F.J.; Malik, S.K.; Kierstead, H.A.; Crabtree, G.W.; Kwok, W.; Lam, D.J.; Mitchell, A.W.
1987-01-01
Although the discovery of heavy fermion behavior in uranium compounds has attracted a great deal of attention, relatively little work has been done which is sufficiently systematic to allow an assessment of the relationship of such behavior to more common phenomena, such as mixed valence, narrow-band effects, etc. In this paper we report bulk property measurements for a number of alloys which form a part of such a systematic study. The approach has been to take relatively simple and well-understood materials and alter their behavior by alloying to produce heavy fermion or Kondo behavior in a controlled way
Itinerant ferromagnetism in the narrow band limit
Liu, S H
2000-01-01
It is shown that in the narrow band, strong interaction limit the paramagnetic state of an itinerant ferromagnet is described by the disordered local moment state. As a result, the Curie temperature is orders of magnitude lower than what is expected from the large exchange splitting of the spin bands. An approximate analysis has also been carried out for the partially ordered state, and the result explains the temperature evolvement of the magnetic contributions to the resistivity and low-energy optical conductivity of CrO sub 2.
Critical unpairing currents in narrow niobium films
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gershenzon, M.E.; Gubankov, V.N.
1979-01-01
Investigated are the dependences of critical currents of narrow ( with the width of W=0.5-15 μm) superconducting niobium films on temperature and a magnetic field. The proposed method of film production with the width of the 1μm order and with small edge inhomogeneities ((<=500 A) permitted to realize the Ginsburg-Landau unpairing currents in the wide range of temperatures. The correct comparison with the theory showed that the unpairing currents are observed if W(< or approximately) 2delta, where delta is the effective depth of the penetration of the perpendicular magnetic field
Narrow electron injector for ballistic electron spectroscopy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kast, M.; Pacher, C.; Strasser, G.; Gornik, E.
2001-01-01
A three-terminal hot electron transistor is used to measure the normal energy distribution of ballistic electrons generated by an electron injector utilizing an improved injector design. A triple barrier resonant tunneling diode with a rectangular transmission function acts as a narrow (1 meV) energy filter. An asymmetric energy distribution with its maximum on the high-energy side with a full width at half maximum of ΔE inj =10 meV is derived. [copyright] 2001 American Institute of Physics
Narrow-Bicliques: Cryptanalysis of Full IDEA
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Khovratovich, D.; Leurent, G.; Rechberger, C.
2012-01-01
We apply and extend the recently introduced biclique framework to IDEA and for the first time describe an approach to noticeably speed-up key-recovery for the full 8.5 round IDEA.We also show that the biclique approach to block cipher cryptanalysis not only obtains results on more rounds, but also...... extended with ways to allow for a significantly reduced data complexity with everything else being equal. For this we use available degrees of freedom as known from hash cryptanalysis to narrow the relevant differential trails. Our cryptanalysis is of high computational complexity, and does not threaten...
Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.
Parker, Douglas A.
This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…
Principles of psychological confidence of NPP operators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alpeev, A.S.
1994-01-01
The problems of operator interaction with subsystems supporting his activity are discussed from the point of view of formation of his psychological confidence on the basis of the automation intellectual means capabilities. The functions of operator activity supporting subsystems, which realization will provide to decrease greatly the portion of accidents at NPPs connected with mistakes in operator actions, are derived. 6 refs
Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.
Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefan Jaeger
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.
Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence
Sander, Paul
2009-01-01
Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…
Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence
Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.
2016-01-01
The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…
Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan
2012-01-01
It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.
Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Isaacs, T
2002-01-01
Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of
Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Isaacs, T
2002-01-01
Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of
Narrow field electromagnetic sensor system and method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McEwan, T.E.
1996-01-01
A narrow field electromagnetic sensor system and method of sensing a characteristic of an object provide the capability to realize a characteristic of an object such as density, thickness, or presence, for any desired coordinate position on the object. One application is imaging. The sensor can also be used as an obstruction detector or an electronic trip wire with a narrow field without the disadvantages of impaired performance when exposed to dirt, snow, rain, or sunlight. The sensor employs a transmitter for transmitting a sequence of electromagnetic signals in response to a transmit timing signal, a receiver for sampling only the initial direct RF path of the electromagnetic signal while excluding all other electromagnetic signals in response to a receive timing signal, and a signal processor for processing the sampled direct RF path electromagnetic signal and providing an indication of the characteristic of an object. Usually, the electromagnetic signal is a short RF burst and the obstruction must provide a substantially complete eclipse of the direct RF path. By employing time-of-flight techniques, a timing circuit controls the receiver to sample only the initial direct RF path of the electromagnetic signal while not sampling indirect path electromagnetic signals. The sensor system also incorporates circuitry for ultra-wideband spread spectrum operation that reduces interference to and from other RF services while allowing co-location of multiple electronic sensors without the need for frequency assignments. 12 figs
Dosimetry of narrow band UVB treatments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goode, D.H.; Mannering, D.M.
1996-01-01
Full text: For many years psoriasis has been treated with broad band UVB lamps. These lamps have a bell shaped spectrum which peaks at 305 nm and extends from 280 nm to 350 nm. However research with monochromatic UV radiation has shown that wavelengths between 300 nm and 320 nm are the most efficacious for clearing psoriasis while wavelengths below 305 nm are most effective for producing the undesirable side effect of erythema (sunburn). In response to these findings Philips developed a narrow band UVB tube in which a large fraction of the output was confined to a narrow peak (bandwidth 2.5 nm) situated at 311 nm. Christchurch Hospital replaced broad band UVB with narrow band treatments in August 1995 and as this required UV exposures to be substantially increased new protocols had to be developed. Three aspects needed to be addressed. These were translating the dose from broad band to narrow band for current patients, determining the initial dose for new patients and developing a formula for increasing subsequent exposures to both types of patient. To translate doses the spectral irradiance (μW/cm 2 /nm) that would fall on the patient was measured in both the old broad band and the new narrow band treatment units and from this UV doses were calculated. All doses were expressed in mJ/cm 2 of unweighted UV over the range 250 nm to 400 nm. The erythemal effectiveness of the two units were compared by using the CIE 1987 curve to express doses in terms of the equivalent exposure of monochromatic 297 nm radiation. It was found that an exposure of 3.96 mJ/cm 2 from the broad band FS40 tubes and 12.79 mJ/cm 2 from the narrow band TL/01 tubes were both equivalent to 1.00 mJ/cm 2 of monochromatic 297 nm radiation so when transferring patients all broad band doses needed to be increased by a factor of 3.2. Before transferring any patients this factor was confirmed by conducting two minimal erythema dose (MED) tests on a normal subject, one in each unit. For new patients a
A methodology to enlarge narrow stability windows
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Araujo, Ewerton M.P.; Pastor, Jorge A.S.C.; Fontoura, Sergio A.B. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Civil. Grupo de Tecnologia e Engenharia de Petroleo
2004-07-01
The stability window in a wellbore design is defined by the difference between fracture pressure and collapse pressure. Deep water environments typically present narrow stability windows, because rocks have low strength due to under-compaction process. Often also, horizontal wells are drilled to obtain a better development of reservoirs placed in thin layers of sandstone. In this scenario, several challenges are faced when drilling in deep water. The traditional approach for predicting instabilities is to determine collapses and fractures at borehole wall. However, the initiation of rupture does not indicate that the borehole fails to perform its function as a wellbore. Thus, a methodology in which the stability window may be enlarged is desirable. This paper presents one practical analytical methodology that consists in allowing wellbore pressures smaller than the conventional collapse pressure, i.e., based upon failure on the borehole wall. This means that a collapse region (shear failure) will be developed around the borehole wall. This collapse region is pre-defined and to estimate its size is used a failure criterion. The aforementioned methodology is implemented in a user-friendly software, which can perform analyses of stress, pore pressure, formation failure, mud weight and mud salinity design for drilling in shale formations. Simulations of a wellbore drilling in a narrow stability window environment are performed to demonstrate the improvements of using the methodology. (author)
Narrow resonances and short-range interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gelman, Boris A.
2009-01-01
Narrow resonances in systems with short-range interactions are discussed in an effective field theory (EFT) framework. An effective Lagrangian is formulated in the form of a combined expansion in powers of a momentum Q 0 | 0 --a resonance peak energy. At leading order in the combined expansion, a two-body scattering amplitude is the sum of a smooth background term of order Q 0 and a Breit-Wigner term of order Q 2 (δε) -1 which becomes dominant for δε 3 . Such an EFT is applicable to systems in which short-distance dynamics generates a low-lying quasistationary state. The EFT is generalized to describe a narrow low-lying resonance in a system of charged particles. It is shown that in the case of Coulomb repulsion, a two-body scattering amplitude at leading order in a combined expansion is the sum of a Coulomb-modified background term and a Breit-Wigner amplitude with parameters renormalized by Coulomb interactions.
Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsuura, S.
2001-01-01
Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)
Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions
1990-09-01
0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500
Social media sentiment and consumer confidence
Daas, Piet J.H.; Puts, Marco J.H.
2014-01-01
Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...
Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stan Ruecker
2007-05-01
Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.
Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis
Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés
The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.
Analysis of narrow effects in pp annihilations
Defoix, C
1972-01-01
The author describes briefly some methods of analysis that final states involving a number of like particles require. A first method consists of separating two competing channels to minimize the reflections due to the undesirable one. Later techniques of analysis lead to the isolation of the only channel of interest and circumvention of the problems of background and reflections due to irrelevant final states. Generally, all these processes are based on the presence of a narrow and identified resonance, for example the eta /sup 0/ or omega /sup 0/ ( to pi /sup +/ pi /sup -/ pi /sup 0/). To be efficient, it is necessary that the observed width of such a basic resonance not be increased too much by experimental errors. (6 refs).
Search for narrow four-baryon states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Badelek, B.
1981-01-01
Highly excited (4.10 2 ) four-baryon resonances have been searched for in the missing-mass spectrum of the reaction π - + 4 He → π - + X at 5 GeV/c in the region of small four-momentum transfer (0.005 2 ), where one of the decay products of the X is either proton or deuteron or triton. No resonance signal is seen in the mass spectrum of X. Within our limited acceptance, the cross section for the production of a narrow (GAMMA approx. 20 MeV/c 2 ) four-baryon state with mass 4.9 GeV/c 2 is estimated to be smaller than approx. 100 nb. (orig.)
Active Brownian motion in a narrow channel
Ao, X.; Ghosh, P. K.; Li, Y.; Schmid, G.; Hänggi, P.; Marchesoni, F.
2014-12-01
We review recent advances in rectification control of artificial microswimmers, also known as Janus particles, diffusing along narrow, periodically corrugated channels. The swimmer self-propulsion mechanism is modeled so as to incorporate a nonzero torque (propulsion chirality). We first summarize the effects of chirality on the autonomous current of microswimmers freely diffusing in channels of different geometries. In particular, left-right and upside-down asymmetric channels are shown to exhibit different transport properties. We then report new results on the dependence of the diffusivity of chiral microswimmers on the channel geometry and their own self-propulsion mechanism. The self-propulsion torque turns out to play a key role as a transport control parameter.
Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles
Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green
2002-01-01
Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...
The effect of narrow provider networks on health care use.
Atwood, Alicia; Lo Sasso, Anthony T
2016-12-01
Network design is an often overlooked aspect of health insurance contracts. Recent policy factors have resulted in narrower provider networks. We provide plausibly causal evidence on the effect of narrow network plans offered by a large national health insurance carrier in a major metropolitan market. Our econometric design exploits the fact that some firms offer a narrow network plan to their employees and some do not. Our results show that narrow network health plans lead to reductions in health care utilization and spending. We find evidence that narrow networks save money by selecting lower cost providers into the network. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.
Matthews, David
2013-10-12
A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.
Interval stability for complex systems
Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Kirillov, Sergey; Kurths, Jürgen; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.
2018-04-01
Stability of dynamical systems against strong perturbations is an important problem of nonlinear dynamics relevant to many applications in various areas. Here, we develop a novel concept of interval stability, referring to the behavior of the perturbed system during a finite time interval. Based on this concept, we suggest new measures of stability, namely interval basin stability (IBS) and interval stability threshold (IST). IBS characterizes the likelihood that the perturbed system returns to the stable regime (attractor) in a given time. IST provides the minimal magnitude of the perturbation capable to disrupt the stable regime for a given interval of time. The suggested measures provide important information about the system susceptibility to external perturbations which may be useful for practical applications. Moreover, from a theoretical viewpoint the interval stability measures are shown to bridge the gap between linear and asymptotic stability. We also suggest numerical algorithms for quantification of the interval stability characteristics and demonstrate their potential for several dynamical systems of various nature, such as power grids and neural networks.
An appraisal of statistical procedures used in derivation of reference intervals.
Ichihara, Kiyoshi; Boyd, James C
2010-11-01
When conducting studies to derive reference intervals (RIs), various statistical procedures are commonly applied at each step, from the planning stages to final computation of RIs. Determination of the necessary sample size is an important consideration, and evaluation of at least 400 individuals in each subgroup has been recommended to establish reliable common RIs in multicenter studies. Multiple regression analysis allows identification of the most important factors contributing to variation in test results, while accounting for possible confounding relationships among these factors. Of the various approaches proposed for judging the necessity of partitioning reference values, nested analysis of variance (ANOVA) is the likely method of choice owing to its ability to handle multiple groups and being able to adjust for multiple factors. Box-Cox power transformation often has been used to transform data to a Gaussian distribution for parametric computation of RIs. However, this transformation occasionally fails. Therefore, the non-parametric method based on determination of the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles following sorting of the data, has been recommended for general use. The performance of the Box-Cox transformation can be improved by introducing an additional parameter representing the origin of transformation. In simulations, the confidence intervals (CIs) of reference limits (RLs) calculated by the parametric method were narrower than those calculated by the non-parametric approach. However, the margin of difference was rather small owing to additional variability in parametrically-determined RLs introduced by estimation of parameters for the Box-Cox transformation. The parametric calculation method may have an advantage over the non-parametric method in allowing identification and exclusion of extreme values during RI computation.
Transparency as an element of public confidence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, H.K.
2007-01-01
In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder
Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl
While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...
National Debate and Public Confidence in Sweden
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lindquist, Ted
2014-01-01
Ted Lindquist, coordinator of the Association of Swedish Municipalities with Nuclear Facilities (KSO), closed the first day of conferences. He showed what the nuclear landscape was in Sweden, and in particular that through time there has been a rather good support from the population. He explained that the reason could be the confidence of the public in the national debate. On a more local scale, Ted Lindquist showed how overwhelmingly strong the support was in towns where the industry would like to operate long-term storage facilities
Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL
2011-04-01
Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.
The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited
Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods
2009-01-01
Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new
Properties of Narrow line Seyfert 1 galaxies
Rakshit, Suvendu; Stalin, Chelliah Subramonian; Chand, Hum; Zhang, Xue-Guang
2018-04-01
Narrow line Seyfert 1 (NLSy1) galaxies constitute a class of active galactic nuclei characterized by the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the Hα broad emission line 10 pixel-1. A strong correlation between the Hα and Hα emission lines is found both in the FWHM and flux. The nuclear continuum luminosity is found to be strongly correlated with the luminosity of Hα, Hα and [O III] emission lines. The black hole mass in NLSy1 galaxies is lower compared to their broad line counterparts. Compared to BLSy1 galaxies, NLSy1 galaxies have a stronger FeII emission and a higher Eddington ratio that place them in the extreme upper right corner of the R4570 - λEdd diagram. The distribution of the radio-loudness parameter (R) in NLSy1 galaxies drops rapidly at R>10 compared to the BLSy1 galaxies that have powerful radio jets. The soft X-ray photon index in NLSy1 galaxies is on average higher (2.9 ± 0.9) than BLSy1 galaxies (2.4 ± 0.8). It is anti-correlated with the Hα width but correlated with the FeII strength. NLSy1 galaxies on average have a lower amplitude of optical variability compared to their broad lines counterparts. These results suggest Eddington ratio as the main parameter that drives optical variability in these sources.
Thermoelectricity in correlated narrow-gap semiconductors
Tomczak, Jan M.
2018-05-01
We review many-body effects, their microscopic origin, as well as their impact on thermoelectricity in correlated narrow-gap semiconductors. Members of this class—such as FeSi and FeSb2—display an unusual temperature dependence in various observables: insulating with large thermopowers at low temperatures, they turn bad metals at temperatures much smaller than the size of their gaps. This insulator-to-metal crossover is accompanied by spectral weight-transfers over large energies in the optical conductivity and by a gradual transition from activated to Curie–Weiss-like behaviour in the magnetic susceptibility. We show a retrospective of the understanding of these phenomena, discuss the relation to heavy-fermion Kondo insulators—such as Ce3Bi4Pt3 for which we present new results—and propose a general classification of paramagnetic insulators. From the latter, FeSi emerges as an orbital-selective Kondo insulator. Focussing on intermetallics such as silicides, antimonides, skutterudites, and Heusler compounds we showcase successes and challenges for the realistic simulation of transport properties in the presence of electronic correlations. Further, we explore new avenues in which electronic correlations may contribute to the improvement of thermoelectric performance.
Thermal tuning On narrow linewidth fiber laser
Han, Peiqi; Liu, Tianshan; Gao, Xincun; Ren, Shiwei
2010-10-01
At present, people have been dedicated to high-speed and large-capacity optical fiber communication system. Studies have been shown that optical wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) technology is an effective means of communication to increase the channel capacity. Tunable lasers have very important applications in high-speed, largecapacity optical communications, and distributed sensing, it can provide narrow linewidth and tunable laser for highspeed optical communication. As the erbium-doped fiber amplifier has a large gain bandwidth, the erbium-doped fiber laser can be achieved lasing wavelength tunable by adding a tunable filter components, so tunable filter device is the key components in tunable fiber laser.At present, fiber laser wavelength is tuned by PZT, if thermal wavelength tuning is combined with PZT, a broader range of wavelength tuning is appearance . Erbium-doped fiber laser is used in the experiments,the main research is the physical characteristics of fiber grating temperature-dependent relationship and the fiber grating laser wavelength effects. It is found that the fiber laser wavelength changes continuously with temperature, tracking several temperature points observed the self-heterodyne spectrum and found that the changes in spectra of the 3dB bandwidth of less than 1kHz, and therefore the fiber laser with election-mode fiber Bragg grating shows excellent spectral properties and wavelength stability.
Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)
2007-05-01
This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.
Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.
Natesan, Prathiba
2015-01-01
Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading
Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.
Knudson, Duane
2017-11-01
Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.
Technology in a crisis of confidence
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Damodaran, G R
1979-04-01
The power that technological progress has given to engineers is examined to see if there has been a corresponding growth in human happiness. A credit/debit approach is discussed, whereby technological advancement is measured against the criteria of social good. The credit side includes medicine, agriculture, and energy use, while the debit side lists pollution, unequal distribution of technology and welfare, modern weaponry, resource depletion, and a possible decline in the quality of life. The present anti-technologists claim the debit side is now predominant, but the author challenges this position by examining the role of technology and the engineer in the society. He sees a need for renewed self-confidence and a sense of direction among engineers, but is generally optimistic that technology and civilization will continue to be intertwined. (DCK)
Considering public confidence in developing regulatory programs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Collins, S.J.
2001-01-01
In the area of public trust and in any investment, planning and strategy are important. While it is accepted in the United States that an essential part of our mission is to leverage our resources to improving Public Confidence this performance goal must be planned for, managed and measured. Similar to our premier performance goal of Maintaining Safety, a strategy must be developed and integrated with our external stake holders but with internal regulatory staff as well. In order to do that, business is to be conducted in an open environment, the basis for regulatory decisions has to be available through public documents and public meetings, communication must be done in clear and consistent terms. (N.C.)
Search for narrow structures in pp-barπ+ and Λp-bar+- systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chung, S.U.; Etkin, A.; Fernow, R.C.; Foley, K.J.; Goldman, J.H.; Kirk, H.; Kopp, J.; Lesnik, A.; Love, W.A.; Morris, T.W.; Ozaki, S.; Platner, E.D.; Protopopescu, S.D.; Saulys, A.; Weygand, D.P.; Wheeler, C.D.; Willen, E.H.; Winik, M.; Bensinger, J.; Morris, W.; Lindenbaum, S.J.; Kramer, M.A.; Mallik, U.; Bar-Yam, Z.; Dowd, J.; Kern, W.; Button-Shafer, J.; Dhar, S.; Lichti, R.
1981-01-01
We have performed a high-statistics search for narrow meson states (GAMMA - p interactions at 16 GeV/c and decaying into pp-barπ + or Λp-barπ +- . This is the first systematic search in channels requiring exchange of exotic mesons. The cross section for production of such states is ruled out at the 95% confidence level with upper limits ranging from approx.10 nb at 2.3 GeV to approx.40 nb at 2.8 GeV
Search for narrow signals in the γ-spectrum from panti p annihilation at rest
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adiels, L.; Bergstroem, I.; Backenstoss, G.; Findeisen, C.; Repond, J.; Tauscher, L.; Williams, M.C.S.; Charalambous, S.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Zioutas, K.; Cooper, M.D.; Kerek, A.; Pavlopoulos, P.; Troester, D.
1986-01-01
The γ-spectrum originating from panti p annihilations at rest in liquid hydrogen was measured with two BGO spectrometers. A total of 24x10 6 γ's were accumulated. No narrow peaks indicating exotic states such as baryonium were observed. The upper limit for the branching ratio panti p→γ+X with 1040≤m x ≤1770 MeV/c 2 and with Γ x ≤25 MeV/c 2 is less than 10 -3 with more than 99.96% confidence. (orig.)
A search for narrow states in radiative upsilon decays
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lowe, S.T.
1986-12-01
A search for new states produced in radiative Υ(1S) decays is accomplished by observing the inclusive photon energy spectrum. A narrow resonance in the energy spectrum indicates the existence of a new state X produced by the process Υ → γX. The analysis is based on approximately 0.44 x 10 6 Υ(1S) events produced at the DORIS II e + e - storage ring. These data were collected with the Crystal Ball detector between April 1983 and May 1986. This analysis finds no evidence for a new state, so upper limits on the branching ratio BR(Υ → γX) are derived, assuming the state X decays primarily to high-multiplicity hadronic final states. In particular, if the state X were a minimal Higgs particle, its primary decay mode would be to the heaviest fermion-antifermion pair energetically available. For the radiative Υ(1S) decays studied here, the heavy fermions would be c anti c or s anti s quark states, over most of the relevant Higgs' mass range. The resulting upper limit for BR(Υ(1S) → γX) is highly energy dependent but for X mass between 1.5 GeV and 8.0 GeV, the 90% confidence level upper limit is better than 8.0 x 10 -4 . For a Higgs' mass near 5.0 GeV, the upper limit is about 2.0 x 10 -4 which is approximately equal to the lowest order calculation for the Wilczek mechanism. The Wilczek calculation with QCD radiative corrections predict branching ratios below the limits set here for all Higgs' masses
Narrow Networks on the Individual Marketplace in 2017.
Polski, Daniel; Weiner, Janet; Zhang, Yuehan
2017-09-01
This Issue Brief describes the breadth of physician networks on the ACA marketplaces in 2017. We find that the overall rate of narrow networks is 21%, which is a decline since 2014 (31%) and 2016 (25%). Narrow networks are concentrated in plans sold on state-based marketplaces, at 42%, compared to 10% of plans on federally-facilitated marketplaces. Issuers that have traditionally offered Medicaid coverage have the highest prevalence of narrow network plans at 36%, with regional/local plans and provider-based plans close behind at 27% and 30%. We also find large differences in narrow networks by state and by plan type.
Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Li, Xin; Ma, Li
2018-01-01
Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...
Haemostatic reference intervals in pregnancy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Szecsi, Pal Bela; Jørgensen, Maja; Klajnbard, Anna
2010-01-01
largely unchanged during pregnancy, delivery, and postpartum and were within non-pregnant reference intervals. However, levels of fibrinogen, D-dimer, and coagulation factors VII, VIII, and IX increased markedly. Protein S activity decreased substantially, while free protein S decreased slightly and total......Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age......-20, 21-28, 29-34, 35-42, at active labor, and on postpartum days 1 and 2. Reference intervals for each gestational period using only the uncomplicated pregnancies were calculated in all 391 women for activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), fibrinogen, fibrin D-dimer, antithrombin, free protein S...
Inverse Interval Matrix: A Survey
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Rohn, Jiří; Farhadsefat, R.
2011-01-01
Roč. 22, - (2011), s. 704-719 E-ISSN 1081-3810 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/09/1957; GA ČR GC201/08/J020 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : interval matrix * inverse interval matrix * NP-hardness * enclosure * unit midpoint * inverse sign stability * nonnegative invertibility * absolute value equation * algorithm Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.808, year: 2010 http://www.math.technion.ac.il/iic/ ela / ela -articles/articles/vol22_pp704-719.pdf
Teresa J.F. Fonseca; Bernard R. Parresol
2001-01-01
Cork, a unique biological material, is a highly valued non-timber forest product. Portugal is the leading producer of cork with 52 percent of the world production. Tree cork weight models have been developed for Southern Portugal, but there are no representative published models for Northern Portugal. Because cork trees may have a different form between Northern and...
Ouwens, Mario; Hauch, Ole; Franzén, Stefan
2018-05-01
The rank-preserving structural failure time model (RPSFTM) is used for health technology assessment submissions to adjust for switching patients from reference to investigational treatment in cancer trials. It uses counterfactual survival (survival when only reference treatment would have been used) and assumes that, at randomization, the counterfactual survival distribution for the investigational and reference arms is identical. Previous validation reports have assumed that patients in the investigational treatment arm stay on therapy throughout the study period. To evaluate the validity of the RPSFTM at various levels of crossover in situations in which patients are taken off the investigational drug in the investigational arm. The RPSFTM was applied to simulated datasets differing in percentage of patients switching, time of switching, underlying acceleration factor, and number of patients, using exponential distributions for the time on investigational and reference treatment. There were multiple scenarios in which two solutions were found: one corresponding to identical counterfactual distributions, and the other to two different crossing counterfactual distributions. The same was found for the hazard ratio (HR). Unique solutions were observed only when switching patients were on investigational treatment for <40% of the time that patients in the investigational arm were on treatment. Distributions other than exponential could have been used for time on treatment. An HR equal to 1 is a necessary but not always sufficient condition to indicate acceleration factors associated with equal counterfactual survival. Further assessment to distinguish crossing counterfactual curves from equal counterfactual curves is especially needed when the time that switchers stay on investigational treatment is relatively long compared to the time direct starters stay on investigational treatment.
Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai
2016-01-01
Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation…
Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai
2016-01-01
Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation…
Slow canopy wilting in soybean has been identified as a potentially beneficial trait for ameliorating drought effects on yield. Previous research identified QTLs for slow wilting from two different bi-parental populations and this information was combined with data from three other populations to id...
Miedema, H.M.E.; Vos, H.
2004-01-01
Relationships between exposure to noise [metric: day-evening-night levels (DENL)] from stationary sources (shunting yards, a seasonal industry, and other industries) and annoyance are presented. Curves are presented for expected annoyance score, the percentage "highly annoyed" (%HA, cutoff at 72 on
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Christian
We explore a base-stock system with backlogging where the demand process is a compound renewal process and the compound element is a delayed geometric distribution. For this setting it is proven in [4] that the long-run average service measures order fill rate (OFR) and volume fill rate (VFR) are...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Christian
2011-01-01
We explore a base-stock system with backlogging where the demand process is a compound renewal process and the compound element is a delayed geometric distribution. For this setting it holds that the long-run average service measures order fill rate (OFR) and volume fill rate (VFR) are equal in v...
Mg2BIV: Narrow Bandgap Thermoelectric Semiconductors
Kim, Il-Ho
2018-05-01
Thermoelectric materials can convert thermal energy directly into electric energy and vice versa. The electricity generation from waste heat via thermoelectric devices can be considered as a new energy source. For instance, automotive exhaust gas and all industrial processes generate an enormous amount of waste heat that can be converted to electricity by using thermoelectric devices. Magnesium compound Mg2BIV (BIV = Si, Ge or Sn) has a favorable combination of physical and chemical properties and can be a good base for the development of new efficient thermoelectrics. Because they possess similar properties to those of group BIV elemental semiconductors, they have been recognized as good candidates for thermoelectric applications. Mg2Si, Mg2Ge and Mg2Sn with an antifluorite structure are narrow bandgap semiconductors with indirect band gaps of 0.77 eV, 0.74 eV, and 0.35 eV, respectively. Mg2BIV has been recognized as a promising material for thermoelectric energy conversion at temperatures ranging from 500 K to 800 K. Compared to other thermoelectric materials operating in the similar temperature range, such as PbTe and filled skutterudites, the important aspects of Mg2BIV are non-toxic and earth-abundant elements. Based on classical thermoelectric theory, the material factor β ( m* / m e)3/2μκ L -1 can be utilized as the criterion for thermoelectric material selection, where m* is the density-of-states effective mass, me is the mass of an electron, μ is the carrier mobility, and κL is the lattice thermal conductivity. The β for magnesium silicides is 14, which is very high compared to 0.8 for iron silicides, 1.4 for manganese silicides, and 2.6 for silicon-germanium alloys. In this paper, basic phenomena of thermoelectricity and transport parameters for thermoelectric materials were briefly introduced, and thermoelectric properties of Mg2BIV synthesized by using a solid-state reaction were reviewed. In addition, various Mg2BIV compounds were discussed
The theory of confidence-building measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Darilek, R.E.
1992-01-01
This paper discusses the theory of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in two ways. First, it employs a top-down, deductively oriented approach to explain CBM theory in terms of the arms control goals and objectives to be achieved, the types of measures to be employed, and the problems or limitations likely to be encountered when applying CBMs to conventional or nuclear forces. The chapter as a whole asks how various types of CBMs might function during a political - military escalation from peacetime to a crisis and beyond (i.e. including conflict), as well as how they might operate in a de-escalatory environment. In pursuit of these overarching issues, the second section of the chapter raises a fundamental but complicating question: how might the next all-out war actually come aoubt - by unpremeditated escalation resulting from misunderstanding or miscalculation, or by premeditation resulting in a surprise attack? The second section of the paper addresses this question, explores its various implications for CBMs, and suggests the potential contribution of different types of CBMs toward successful resolution of the issues involved
Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiaro, P.J. Jr.
1993-01-01
Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to open-quotes false alarms.close quotes This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a open-quotes false alarm?close quotes Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits
Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiaro, P.J. Jr.
1993-01-01
Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits
Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiaro, P.J. Jr.
1994-01-01
Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that they put their trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits
Ozturk, Mustafa; Ulubay, Mustafa; Alanbay, Ibrahim; Keskin, Uğur; Karasahin, Emre; Yenen, Müfit Cemal
2016-01-01
A preliminary study was designed to evaluate whether a narrow-band imaging (NBI) endoscopic light source could detect chronic endometritis that was not identifiable with a white light hysteroscope. A total of 86 patients with endometrial pathology (71 abnormal uterine bleeding and 15 postmenopausal bleeding) were examined by NBI endoscopy and white light hysteroscopy between February 2010 and February 2011. The surgeon initially observed the uterine cavity using white light hysteroscopy and made a diagnostic impression, which was recorded. Subsequently, after pressing a button on the telescope, NBI was used to reevaluate the endometrial mucosa. The median age of the patients was 40 years (range: 30-60 years). Endometritis was diagnosed histologically. Six cases of abnormal uterine bleeding (6/71, 8.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.17) and one case of postmenopausal bleeding (1/15, 6%, 95%CI 0.01-0.29) were only diagnosed with chronic endometritis by NBI (7/86, 8.1%, 95%CI 0.04-0.15). Capillary patterns of the endometrium can be observed by NBI and this method can be used to assess chronic endometritis. © 2015 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.
Khachatryan, Vardan; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hartl, Christian; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Rabady, Dinyar; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Treberer-Treberspurg, Wolfgang; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Alderweireldt, Sara; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Knutsson, Albert; Lauwers, Jasper; Luyckx, Sten; Ochesanu, Silvia; Rougny, Romain; Van De Klundert, Merijn; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Daci, Nadir; Heracleous, Natalie; Keaveney, James; Lowette, Steven; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Python, Quentin; Strom, Derek; Tavernier, Stefaan; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Caillol, Cécile; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dobur, Didar; Favart, Laurent; Gay, Arnaud; Grebenyuk, Anastasia; Léonard, Alexandre; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Perniè, Luca; Randle-conde, Aidan; Reis, Thomas; Seva, Tomislav; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Zenoni, Florian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Benucci, Leonardo; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Crucy, Shannon; Fagot, Alexis; Garcia, Guillaume; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Poyraz, Deniz; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Salva Diblen, Sinem; Sigamani, Michael; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Beluffi, Camille; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Caudron, Adrien; Ceard, Ludivine; Da Silveira, Gustavo Gil; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Jafari, Abideh; Jez, Pavel; Komm, Matthias; Lemaitre, Vincent; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Perrini, Lucia; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Popov, Andrey; Quertenmont, Loic; Selvaggi, Michele; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Alves, Gilvan; Brito, Lucas; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; Dos Reis Martins, Thiago; Molina, Jorge; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Pol, Maria Elena; Rebello Teles, Patricia; Carvalho, Wagner; Chinellato, Jose; Custódio, Analu; Melo Da Costa, Eliza; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Malbouisson, Helena; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santaolalla, Javier; Santoro, Alberto; Sznajder, Andre; Tonelli Manganote, Edmilson José; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; Dogra, Sunil; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Aleksandrov, Aleksandar; Genchev, Vladimir; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Marinov, Andrey; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Glushkov, Ivan; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Du, Ran; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Plestina, Roko; Romeo, Francesco; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Zheng; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Wang, Dayong; Xu, Zijun; Zhang, Fengwangdong; Zhang, Linlin; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Cabrera, Andrés; Chaparro Sierra, Luisa Fernanda; Florez, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Mekterovic, Darko; Sudic, Lucija; Attikis, Alexandros; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Rykaczewski, Hans; Bodlak, Martin; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Elgammal, Sherif; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Murumaa, Marion; Raidal, Martti; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Wendland, Lauri; Talvitie, Joonas; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Couderc, Fabrice; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Favaro, Carlotta; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Malcles, Julie; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Titov, Maksym; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Busson, Philippe; Chapon, Emilien; Charlot, Claude; Dahms, Torsten; Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Filipovic, Nicolas; Florent, Alice; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Mastrolorenzo, Luca; Miné, Philippe; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Ortona, Giacomo; Paganini, Pascal; Regnard, Simon; Salerno, Roberto; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Sirois, Yves; Veelken, Christian; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Aubin, Alexandre; Bloch, Daniel; Brom, Jean-Marie; Chabert, Eric Christian; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Goetzmann, Christophe; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Skovpen, Kirill; Van Hove, Pierre; Gadrat, Sébastien; Beauceron, Stephanie; Beaupere, Nicolas; Bernet, Colin; Boudoul, Gaelle; Bouvier, Elvire; Brochet, Sébastien; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Chasserat, Julien; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Courbon, Benoit; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fan, Jiawei; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Kurca, Tibor; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Pequegnot, Anne-Laure; Perries, Stephane; Ruiz Alvarez, José David; Sabes, David; Sgandurra, Louis; Sordini, Viola; Vander Donckt, Muriel; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Xiao, Hong; Tsamalaidze, Zviad; Autermann, Christian; Beranek, Sarah; Bontenackels, Michael; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Heister, Arno; Klein, Katja; Lipinski, Martin; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Preuten, Marius; Raupach, Frank; Sammet, Jan; Schael, Stefan; Schulte, Jan-Frederik; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Brodski, Michael; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Klingebiel, Dennis; Knutzen, Simon; Kreuzer, Peter; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Millet, Philipp; Olschewski, Mark; Padeken, Klaas; Papacz, Paul; Reithler, Hans; Schmitz, Stefan Antonius; Sonnenschein, Lars; Teyssier, Daniel; Thüer, Sebastian; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Haj Ahmad, Wael; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Künsken, Andreas; Lingemann, Joschka; Nowack, Andreas; Nugent, Ian Michael; Pistone, Claudia; Pooth, Oliver; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Asin, Ivan; Bartosik, Nazar; Behr, Joerg; Behrens, Ulf; Bell, Alan James; Bethani, Agni; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Cakir, Altan; Calligaris, Luigi; Campbell, Alan; Choudhury, Somnath; Costanza, Francesco; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Dolinska, Ganna; Dooling, Samantha; Dorland, Tyler; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Eichhorn, Thomas; Flucke, Gero; Garay Garcia, Jasone; Geiser, Achim; Gizhko, Andrii; Gunnellini, Paolo; Hauk, Johannes; Hempel, Maria; Jung, Hannes; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Karacheban, Olena; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kieseler, Jan; Kleinwort, Claus; Korol, Ievgen; Krücker, Dirk; Lange, Wolfgang; Leonard, Jessica; Lipka, Katerina; Lobanov, Artur; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Lutz, Benjamin; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mittag, Gregor; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Nayak, Aruna; Ntomari, Eleni; Perrey, Hanno; Pitzl, Daniel; Placakyte, Ringaile; Raspereza, Alexei; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Roland, Benoit; Ron, Elias; Sahin, Mehmet Özgür; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Saxena, Pooja; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Schröder, Matthias; Seitz, Claudia; Spannagel, Simon; Vargas Trevino, Andrea Del Rocio; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Blobel, Volker; Centis Vignali, Matteo; Draeger, Arne-Rasmus; Erfle, Joachim; Garutti, Erika; Goebel, Kristin; Görner, Martin; Haller, Johannes; Hoffmann, Malte; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Junkes, Alexandra; Kirschenmann, Henning; Klanner, Robert; Kogler, Roman; Lapsien, Tobias; Lenz, Teresa; Marchesini, Ivan; Marconi, Daniele; Ott, Jochen; Peiffer, Thomas; Perieanu, Adrian; Pietsch, Niklas; Poehlsen, Jennifer; Pöhlsen, Thomas; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Seidel, Markus; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Troendle, Daniel; Usai, Emanuele; Vanelderen, Lukas; Vanhoefer, Annika; Barth, Christian; Baus, Colin; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Butz, Erik; Chwalek, Thorsten; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Feindt, Michael; Frensch, Felix; Giffels, Manuel; Gilbert, Andrew; Hartmann, Frank; Hauth, Thomas; Husemann, Ulrich; Katkov, Igor; Kornmayer, Andreas; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Müller, Thomas; Müller, Thomas; Nürnberg, Andreas; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Röcker, Steffen; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weiler, Thomas; Wolf, Roger; Anagnostou, Georgios; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Giakoumopoulou, Viktoria Athina; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Markou, Athanasios; Markou, Christos; Psallidas, Andreas; Topsis-Giotis, Iasonas; Agapitos, Antonis; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Stiliaris, Efstathios; Tziaferi, Eirini; Aslanoglou, Xenofon; Evangelou, Ioannis; Flouris, Giannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Paradas, Evangelos; Strologas, John; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Zsigmond, Anna Julia; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Karancsi, János; Molnar, Jozsef; Palinkas, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Makovec, Alajos; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Swain, Sanjay Kumar; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Gupta, Ruchi; Bhawandeep, Bhawandeep; Kalsi, Amandeep Kaur; Kaur, Manjit; Kumar, Ramandeep; Mittal, Monika; Nishu, Nishu; Singh, Jasbir; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, Sudha; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Kumar, Ajay; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Ranjan, Kirti; Sharma, Varun; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Chatterjee, Kalyanmoy; Dutta, Suchandra; Gomber, Bhawna; Jain, Sandhya; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Modak, Atanu; Mukherjee, Swagata; Roy, Debarati; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Dutta, Dipanwita; Kumar, Vineet; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Topkar, Anita; Aziz, Tariq; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Bhowmik, Sandeep; Chatterjee, Rajdeep Mohan; Dewanjee, Ram Krishna; Dugad, Shashikant; Ganguly, Sanmay; Ghosh, Saranya; Guchait, Monoranjan; Gurtu, Atul; Kole, Gouranga; Kumar, Sanjeev; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sudhakar, Katta; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Sharma, Seema; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Behnamian, Hadi; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Goldouzian, Reza; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Naseri, Mohsen; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Rezaei Hosseinabadi, Ferdos; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Felcini, Marta; Grunewald, Martin; Abbrescia, Marcello; Calabria, Cesare; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; Cristella, Leonardo; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Radogna, Raffaella; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Sharma, Archana; Silvestris, Lucia; Venditti, Rosamaria; Verwilligen, Piet; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Campanini, Renato; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Codispoti, Giuseppe; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Perrotta, Andrea; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Tosi, Nicolò; Travaglini, Riccardo; Albergo, Sebastiano; Cappello, Gigi; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Giordano, Ferdinando; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Gallo, Elisabetta; Gonzi, Sandro; Gori, Valentina; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Ferretti, Roberta; Ferro, Fabrizio; Lo Vetere, Maurizio; Robutti, Enrico; Tosi, Silvano; Dinardo, Mauro Emanuele; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Gerosa, Raffaele; Ghezzi, Alessio; Govoni, Pietro; Lucchini, Marco Toliman; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Martelli, Arabella; Marzocchi, Badder; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Cavallo, Nicola; Di Guida, Salvatore; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Bellato, Marco; Bisello, Dario; Carlin, Roberto; Checchia, Paolo; Dall'Osso, Martino; Dorigo, Tommaso; Dosselli, Umberto; Fanzago, Federica; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Gasparini, Ugo; Gozzelino, Andrea; Lacaprara, Stefano; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zucchetta, Alberto; Zumerle, Gianni; Gabusi, Michele; Ratti, Sergio P; Re, Valerio; Riccardi, Cristina; Salvini, Paola; Vitulo, Paolo; Biasini, Maurizio; Bilei, Gian Mario; Ciangottini, Diego; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Spiezia, Aniello; Androsov, Konstantin; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Bernardini, Jacopo; Boccali, Tommaso; Broccolo, Giuseppe; Castaldi, Rino; Ciocci, Maria Agnese; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Donato, Silvio; Fedi, Giacomo; Fiori, Francesco; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Grippo, Maria Teresa; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Moon, Chang-Seong; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Savoy-Navarro, Aurore; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Squillacioti, Paola; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Vernieri, Caterina; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; D'imperio, Giulia; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Jorda, Clara; Longo, Egidio; Margaroli, Fabrizio; Meridiani, Paolo; Micheli, Francesco; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Rahatlou, Shahram; Rovelli, Chiara; Santanastasio, Francesco; Soffi, Livia; Traczyk, Piotr; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Bellan, Riccardo; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Casasso, Stefano; Costa, Marco; Covarelli, Roberto; Degano, Alessandro; Demaria, Natale; Finco, Linda; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Musich, Marco; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pacher, Luca; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Pinna Angioni, Gian Luca; Potenza, Alberto; Romero, Alessandra; Ruspa, Marta; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Tamponi, Umberto; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Casarsa, Massimo; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; La Licata, Chiara; Marone, Matteo; Schizzi, Andrea; Umer, Tomo; Zanetti, Anna; Chang, Sunghyun; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kim, Min Suk; Kong, Dae Jung; Lee, Sangeun; Oh, Young Do; Park, Hyangkyu; Sakharov, Alexandre; Son, Dong-Chul; Kim, Tae Jeong; Ryu, Min Sang; Kim, Jae Yool; Moon, Dong Ho; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Mihee; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Yongsun; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Kyong Sei; Park, Sung Keun; Roh, Youn; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Inkyu; Ryu, Geonmo; Choi, Young-Il; Choi, Young Kyu; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Donghyun; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Jongseok; Yu, Intae; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Md Ali, Mohd Adli Bin; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-de La Cruz, Ivan; Hernandez-Almada, Alberto; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Sánchez Hernández, Alberto; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Pedraza, Isabel; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Krofcheck, David; Butler, Philip H; Reucroft, Steve; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Muhammad; Hassan, Qamar; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Bluj, Michal; Boimska, Bożena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Cwiok, Mikolaj; Dominik, Wojciech; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Misiura, Maciej; Olszewski, Michał; Bargassa, Pedrame; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, Cristóvão; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Nguyen, Federico; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Seixas, Joao; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Golutvin, Igor; Gorbunov, Ilya; Kamenev, Alexey; Karjavin, Vladimir; Konoplyanikov, Viktor; Kozlov, Guennady; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Matveev, Viktor; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Savina, Maria; Shmatov, Sergey; Shulha, Siarhei; Skatchkov, Nikolai; Smirnov, Vitaly; Zarubin, Anatoli; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Andrey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Pozdnyakov, Ivan; Safronov, Grigory; Semenov, Sergey; Spiridonov, Alexander; Stolin, Viatcheslav; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Vinogradov, Alexey; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Ershov, Alexander; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Obraztsov, Stepan; Petrushanko, Sergey; Savrin, Viktor; Snigirev, Alexander; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Kachanov, Vassili; Kalinin, Alexey; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Ekmedzic, Marko; Milosevic, Jovan; Rekovic, Vladimir; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Battilana, Carlo; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Domínguez Vázquez, Daniel; Escalante Del Valle, Alberto; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; 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Perry, Thomas; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Polese, Giovanni; Ross, Ian; Sarangi, Tapas; Savin, Alexander; Smith, Wesley H; Taylor, Devin; Vuosalo, Carl; Woods, Nathaniel
2015-07-09
The first search for a narrow, high-mass resonance decaying into Z and Higgs (H) bosons is presented. The final state studied consists of a merged jet pair and a $\\tau$ pair resulting from the decays of Z and H bosons, respectively. The analysis is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV, collected with the CMS experiment in 2012, and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb$^{-1}$. In the resonance mass range of interest, the Z and H bosons are produced with large momenta, which implies that the final products of the two quarks or the two $\\tau$ leptons must be detected within a small angular interval. From a combination of all possible decay modes of the $\\tau$ leptons, production cross sections in a range between 0.9 and 27.8 fb are excluded at 95% confidence level, depending on the resonance mass.
Dynamic Properties of QT Intervals
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Halámek, Josef; Jurák, Pavel; Vondra, Vlastimil; Lipoldová, J.; Leinveber, Pavel; Plachý, M.; Fráňa, P.; Kára, T.
2009-01-01
Roč. 36, - (2009), s. 517-520 ISSN 0276-6574 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/1129; GA MŠk ME09050 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20650511 Keywords : QT Intervals * arrhythmia diagnosis Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering http://cinc.mit.edu/archives/2009/pdf/0517.pdf
Haemostatic reference intervals in pregnancy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Szecsi, Pal Bela; Jørgensen, Maja; Klajnbard, Anna
2010-01-01
Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age-specific refe......Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age......-specific reference intervals for coagulation tests during normal pregnancy. Eight hundred one women with expected normal pregnancies were included in the study. Of these women, 391 had no complications during pregnancy, vaginal delivery, or postpartum period. Plasma samples were obtained at gestational weeks 13......-20, 21-28, 29-34, 35-42, at active labor, and on postpartum days 1 and 2. Reference intervals for each gestational period using only the uncomplicated pregnancies were calculated in all 391 women for activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), fibrinogen, fibrin D-dimer, antithrombin, free protein S...
Interval matrices: Regularity generates singularity
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Rohn, Jiří; Shary, S.P.
2018-01-01
Roč. 540, 1 March (2018), s. 149-159 ISSN 0024-3795 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : interval matrix * regularity * singularity * P-matrix * absolute value equation * diagonally singilarizable matrix Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.973, year: 2016
Chaotic dynamics from interspike intervals
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pavlov, A N; Sosnovtseva, Olga; Mosekilde, Erik
2001-01-01
Considering two different mathematical models describing chaotic spiking phenomena, namely, an integrate-and-fire and a threshold-crossing model, we discuss the problem of extracting dynamics from interspike intervals (ISIs) and show that the possibilities of computing the largest Lyapunov expone...
Q2 anti Q2 states with relatively narrow widths
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ono, Seiji.
1978-09-01
Using the mass formulas which correctly predict the mass of mesons and baryons the mass of diquark states is computed. From this mass spectrum the existance of the observed narrow baryonia and wide baryonia can be naturally understood. Other relatively narrow Q 2 anti Q 2 states are predicted to exist. (orig.) [de
Bayesian Face Recognition and Perceptual Narrowing in Face-Space
Balas, Benjamin
2012-01-01
During the first year of life, infants' face recognition abilities are subject to "perceptual narrowing", the end result of which is that observers lose the ability to distinguish previously discriminable faces (e.g. other-race faces) from one another. Perceptual narrowing has been reported for faces of different species and different races, in…
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Kirton, A
2010-08-01
Full Text Available for calculating the variance and prediction intervals for biomass estimates obtained from allometric equations A KIRTON B SCHOLES S ARCHIBALD CSIR Ecosystem Processes and Dynamics, Natural Resources and the Environment P.O. BOX 395, Pretoria, 0001, South... intervals (confidence intervals for predicted values) for allometric estimates can be obtained using an example of estimating tree biomass from stem diameter. It explains how to deal with relationships which are in the power function form - a common form...
Examining Belief and Confidence in Schizophrenia
Joyce, Dan W.; Averbeck, Bruno B.; Frith, Chris D.; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.
2018-01-01
Background People with psychoses often report fixed, delusional beliefs that are sustained even in the presence of unequivocal contrary evidence. Such delusional beliefs are the result of integrating new and old evidence inappropriately in forming a cognitive model. We propose and test a cognitive model of belief formation using experimental data from an interactive “Rock Paper Scissors” game. Methods Participants (33 controls and 27 people with schizophrenia) played a competitive, time-pressured interactive two-player game (Rock, Paper, Scissors). Participant’s behavior was modeled by a generative computational model using leaky-integrator and temporal difference methods. This model describes how new and old evidence is integrated to form both a playing strategy to beat the opponent and provide a mechanism for reporting confidence in one’s playing strategy to win against the opponent Results People with schizophrenia fail to appropriately model their opponent’s play despite consistent (rather than random) patterns that can be exploited in the simulated opponent’s play. This is manifest as a failure to weigh existing evidence appropriately against new evidence. Further, participants with schizophrenia show a ‘jumping to conclusions’ bias, reporting successful discovery of a winning strategy with insufficient evidence. Conclusions The model presented suggests two tentative mechanisms in delusional belief formation – i) one for modeling patterns in other’s behavior, where people with schizophrenia fail to use old evidence appropriately and ii) a meta-cognitive mechanism for ‘confidence’ in such beliefs where people with schizophrenia overweight recent reward history in deciding on the value of beliefs about the opponent. PMID:23521846
Takeuchi, Yoji; Hanafusa, Masao; Kanzaki, Hiromitsu; Ohta, Takashi; Hanaoka, Noboru; Yamamoto, Sachiko; Higashino, Koji; Tomita, Yasuhiko; Uedo, Noriya; Ishihara, Ryu; Iishi, Hiroyasu
2015-10-01
The "resect and discard" strategy is beneficial for cost savings on screening and surveillance colonoscopy, but it has the risk to discard lesions with advanced histology or small invasive cancer (small advanced lesion; SALs). The aim of this study was to prove the principle of new "resect and discard" strategy with consideration for SALs using magnifying narrow-band imaging (M-NBI). Patients undergoing colonoscopy at a tertiary center were involved in this prospective trial. For each detected polyp <10 mm, optical diagnosis (OD) and virtual management ("leave in situ", "discard" or "send for pathology") were independently made using non-magnifying NBI (N-NBI) and M-NBI, and next surveillance interval were predicted. Histological and optical diagnosis results of all polyps were compared. While the management could be decided in 82% of polyps smaller than 10 mm, 24/31 (77%) SALs including two small invasive cancers were not discarded based on OD using M-NBI. The sensitivity [90% confidence interval (CI)] of M-NBI for SALs was 0.77 (0.61-0.89). The risk for discarding SALs using N-NBI was significantly higher than that using M-NBI (53 vs. 23%, p = 0.02). The diagnostic accuracy (95% CI) of M-NBI in distinguishing neoplastic from non-neoplastic lesions [0.88 (0.86-0.90)] was significantly better than that of N-NBI [0.84 (0.82-0.87)] (p = 0.005). The results of our study indicated that our "resect and discard" strategy using M-NBI could work to reduce the risk for discarding SALs including small invasive cancer (UMIN-CTR, UMIN000003740).
Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J
2015-01-01
This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anthony eVertino
2011-09-01
Full Text Available By linkage mapping of quantitative trait loci, we previously identified at least 11 natural genetic variants that significantly modulate C. elegans lifespan, many of which would have eluded discovery by knockdown or mutation screens. A region on chromosome IV between markers stP13 and stP35 had striking effects on longevity in three interstrain crosses (each P < 1E–9. In order to define the limits of that interval, we have now constructed two independent lines by marker-based selection during 20 backcross generations, isolating the stP13–stP35 interval from strain Bergerac-BO in a CL2a background. These congenic lines differed significantly from CL2a in lifespan, assayed in two environments (each P<0.001. We then screened for exchange of flanking markers to isolate recombinants that partition this region, because fine mapping the boundaries for overlapping heteroallelic spans can greatly narrow the implicated interval. Recombinants carrying the CL2a allele at stP35 were consistently long-lived compared to those retaining the Bergerac-BO allele (P<0.001, and more resistant to temperature elevation and paraquat (each ~1.7-fold, P<0.0001, but gained little protection from ultraviolet or peroxide stresses. Two rounds of recombinant screening, followed by fine-mapping of break-points and survival testing, narrowed the interval to 0.18 Mb (13.35–13.53 Mb containing 26 putative genes and 6 small-nuclear RNAs – a manageable number of targets for functional assessment.
Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Melissa B Gilkey
Full Text Available To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents.We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR, varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status.A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15% or delay (27%. Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63 as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86. Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68, varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66, and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42.Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.
Are narrow mesons, baryons and dibaryons evidence for multiquark states?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tatischeff, B.; Yonnet, J.
2000-01-01
Several narrow structures have been progressively observed since the last fifteen years, in di-baryonic invariant mass spectra or in missing mass spectra. More recently, narrow structures were observed in baryonic and now in mesonic mass spectra. Since these small peaks appear at fixed masses, independently of the experiment, they are associated with real states. There is no room to explain these states within classical nuclear physics taking into account baryonic and mesonic degrees of freedom. An interpretation is proposed, which associate these narrow structures with two coloured quark clusters. (authors)
Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Ndhlovu, T
2009-11-01
Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...
Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function
Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek
2006-01-01
The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...
Boswell, Paul G; Abate-Pella, Daniel; Hewitt, Joshua T
2015-09-18
Compound identification by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) is a tedious process, mainly because authentic standards must be run on a user's system to be able to confidently reject a potential identity from its retention time and mass spectral properties. Instead, it would be preferable to use shared retention time/index data to narrow down the identity, but shared data cannot be used to reject candidates with an absolute level of confidence because the data are strongly affected by differences between HPLC systems and experimental conditions. However, a technique called "retention projection" was recently shown to account for many of the differences. In this manuscript, we discuss an approach to calculate appropriate retention time tolerance windows for projected retention times, potentially making it possible to exclude candidates with an absolute level of confidence, without needing to have authentic standards of each candidate on hand. In a range of multi-segment gradients and flow rates run among seven different labs, the new approach calculated tolerance windows that were significantly more appropriate for each retention projection than global tolerance windows calculated for retention projections or linear retention indices. Though there were still some small differences between the labs that evidently were not taken into account, the calculated tolerance windows only needed to be relaxed by 50% to make them appropriate for all labs. Even then, 42% of the tolerance windows calculated in this study without standards were narrower than those required by WADA for positive identification, where standards must be run contemporaneously. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.
2010-10-01
... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...
Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students
Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul
2012-01-01
Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…
Dijets at large rapidity intervals
Pope, B G
2001-01-01
Inclusive diet production at large pseudorapidity intervals ( Delta eta ) between the two jets has been suggested as a regime for observing BFKL dynamics. We have measured the dijet cross section for large Delta eta in pp collisions at square root s = 1800 and 630 GeV using the DOE detector. The partonic cross section increases strongly with the size of Delta eta . The observed growth is even stronger than expected on the basis of BFKL resummation in the leading logarithmic approximation. The growth of the partonic cross section can be accommodated with an effective BFKL intercept of alpha /sub BFKL/(20 GeV) = 1.65 +or- 0.07.
Variational collocation on finite intervals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amore, Paolo; Cervantes, Mayra; Fernandez, Francisco M
2007-01-01
In this paper, we study a set of functions, defined on an interval of finite width, which are orthogonal and which reduce to the sinc functions when the appropriate limit is taken. We show that these functions can be used within a variational approach to obtain accurate results for a variety of problems. We have applied them to the interpolation of functions on finite domains and to the solution of the Schroedinger equation, and we have compared the performance of the present approach with others
What's in a name? Expiratory tracheal narrowing in adults explained
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leong, P.; Bardin, P.G.; Lau, K.K.
2013-01-01
Tracheomalacia, tracheobronchomalacia, and excessive dynamic airway collapse are all terms used to describe tracheal narrowing in expiration. The first two describe luminal reduction from cartilage softening and the latter refers to luminal reduction from exaggerated posterior membrane movement. Expiratory tracheal narrowing is a frequent occurrence that can cause symptoms of airway obstruction, such as dyspnoea, wheeze, and exercise intolerance. The accurate diagnosis and quantification of expiratory tracheal narrowing has important aetiological, therapeutic, and prognostic implications. The reference standard for diagnosis has traditionally been bronchoscopy; however, this method has significant limitations. Expiratory tracheal disorders are readily detected by four-dimensional dynamic volume multidetector computed tomography (4D-CT), an emerging, non-invasive method that will potentially enable detection and quantification of these conditions. This review discusses the morphological forms of expiratory tracheal narrowing and demonstrates the utility of 4D-CT in the diagnosis, quantification, and treatment of these important conditions
Single frequency narrow linewidth 2 micron laser, Phase I
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA needs narrow linewidth lasers in the 1.5 or 2 micron wavelength regime for coherent Lidar applications. The laser should be tunable by several nm and frequency...
Subglottic cysts and asymmetrical subglottic narrowing on neck radiograph
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holinger, L.D.; Torium, D.M.; Anandappa, E.C.
1988-01-01
The congenital subglottic hemangioma typically appears as an asymmetric subglottic narrowing or mass on frontal neck radiograph. Therefore, soft tissue neck radiography has been advocated as a definitive non-operative approach for diagnosing these lesions. However, we have noted similar asymmetric subglottic narrowing in patients with acquired subglottic cysts. These retention cysts occur following long-term intubation in the neonate. The mechanism probably involves subglottic fibrosis which obstructs glands with subsequent cyst formation. Acquired subglottic cysts typically appear as an asymmetric narrowing on frontal or lateral soft tissue neck radiographs. These lesions may produce airway compromise but are effectively treated by forceps or laser removal. Acquired subglottic cysts must be included in the differential diagnosis of asymmetric subglottic narrowing. The definitive diagnosis is made by direct laryngoscopy, not soft tissue neck radiograph. (orig.)
THE TREATMENT OF OPEN- AND NARROW-ANGLE GLAUCOMA
African Journals Online (AJOL)
1971-04-10
Apr 10, 1971 ... glaucoma will be considered: narrow-angle glaucoma. (acute glaucoma) and ... emotional or a physical crisis. The pain is in the distribu- .... ness, not increased pressure, haunts people suffering from glaucoma'.' The saga of ...
Comment on the narrow structure reported by Amaryan et al
Anghinolfi, M.; Ball, J.; Baltzell, N. A.; Battaglieri, M.; Bedlinskiy, I.; Bellis, M.; Biselli, A. S.; Bookwalter, C.; Boiarinov, S.; Bosted, P.; Burkert, V. D.; Carman, D. S.; Celentano, A.; Chandavar, S.; Cole, P. L.
2012-01-01
The CLAS Collaboration provides a comment on the physics interpretation of the results presented in a paper published by M. Amaryan et al. regarding the possible observation of a narrow structure in the mass spectrum of a photoproduction experiment.
Narrow band interference cancelation in OFDM: Astructured maximum likelihood approach
Sohail, Muhammad Sadiq; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.; Al-Ghadhban, Samir N.
2012-01-01
This paper presents a maximum likelihood (ML) approach to mitigate the effect of narrow band interference (NBI) in a zero padded orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (ZP-OFDM) system. The NBI is assumed to be time variant and asynchronous
Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.
2012-01-01
Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.
Narrow Framing and Long-Term Care Insurance
Daniel Gottlieb; Olivia S. Mitchell
2015-01-01
We propose a model of narrow framing in insurance and test it using data from a new module we designed and fielded in the Health and Retirement Study. We show that respondents subject to narrow framing are substantially less likely to buy long-term care insurance than average. This effect is distinct from, and much larger than, the effects of risk aversion or adverse selection, and it offers a new explanation for why people underinsure their later-life care needs.
Ocular Biometrics of Myopic Eyes With Narrow Angles.
Chong, Gabriel T; Wen, Joanne C; Su, Daniel Hsien-Wen; Stinnett, Sandra; Asrani, Sanjay
2016-02-01
The purpose of this study was to compare the ocular biometrics between myopic patients with and without narrow angles. Patients with a stable myopic refraction (myopia worse than -1.00 D spherical equivalent) were prospectively recruited. Angle status was assessed using gonioscopy and biometric measurements were performed using an anterior segment optical coherence tomography and an IOLMaster. A total of 29 patients (58 eyes) were enrolled with 13 patients (26 eyes) classified as having narrow angles and 16 patients (32 eyes) classified as having open angles. Baseline demographics of age, sex, and ethnicity did not differ significantly between the 2 groups. The patients with narrow angles were on average older than those with open angles but the difference did not reach statistical significance (P=0.12). The central anterior chamber depth was significantly less in the eyes with narrow angles (P=0.05). However, the average lens thickness, although greater in the eyes with narrow angles, did not reach statistical significance (P=0.10). Refractive error, axial lengths, and iris thicknesses did not differ significantly between the 2 groups (P=0.32, 0.47, 0.15). Narrow angles can occur in myopic eyes. Routine gonioscopy is therefore recommended for all patients regardless of refractive error.
Acquisition and visualization techniques for narrow spectral color imaging.
Neumann, László; García, Rafael; Basa, János; Hegedüs, Ramón
2013-06-01
This paper introduces a new approach in narrow-band imaging (NBI). Existing NBI techniques generate images by selecting discrete bands over the full visible spectrum or an even wider spectral range. In contrast, here we perform the sampling with filters covering a tight spectral window. This image acquisition method, named narrow spectral imaging, can be particularly useful when optical information is only available within a narrow spectral window, such as in the case of deep-water transmittance, which constitutes the principal motivation of this work. In this study we demonstrate the potential of the proposed photographic technique on nonunderwater scenes recorded under controlled conditions. To this end three multilayer narrow bandpass filters were employed, which transmit at 440, 456, and 470 nm bluish wavelengths, respectively. Since the differences among the images captured in such a narrow spectral window can be extremely small, both image acquisition and visualization require a novel approach. First, high-bit-depth images were acquired with multilayer narrow-band filters either placed in front of the illumination or mounted on the camera lens. Second, a color-mapping method is proposed, using which the input data can be transformed onto the entire display color gamut with a continuous and perceptually nearly uniform mapping, while ensuring optimally high information content for human perception.
Intramyocardial arterial narrowing in dogs with subaortic stenosis.
Falk, T; Jönsson, L; Pedersen, H D
2004-09-01
Earlier studies have described intramyocardial arterial narrowing based on hyperplasia and hypertrophy of the vessel wall in dogs with subaortic stenosis (SAS). In theory, such changes might increase the risk of sudden death, as they seem to do in heart disease in other species. This retrospective pathological study describes and quantifies intramyocardial arterial narrowing in 44 dogs with naturally occurring SAS and in eight control dogs. The majority of the dogs with SAS died suddenly (n=27); nine had died or been euthanased with signs of heart failure and eight were euthanased without clinical signs. Dogs with SAS had significantly narrower intramyocardial arteries (Pdogs. Male dogs and those with more severe hypertrophy had more vessel narrowing (P=0.02 and P=0.02, respectively), whereas dogs with dilated hearts had slightly less pronounced arterial thickening (P=0.01). Arterial narrowing was not related to age, but fibrosis increased with age (P=0.047). Dogs that died suddenly did not have a greater number of arterial changes than other dogs with SAS. This study suggests that most dogs with SAS have intramyocardial arterial narrowing and that the risk of dying suddenly is not significantly related to the overall degree of vessel obliteration.
Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki
2008-01-01
Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested
Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A
2014-01-01
Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L
2004-04-01
Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.
Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.
Koehn, Stefan
2013-01-01
Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.
Some Characterizations of Convex Interval Games
Brânzei, R.; Tijs, S.H.; Alparslan-Gok, S.Z.
2008-01-01
This paper focuses on new characterizations of convex interval games using the notions of exactness and superadditivity. We also relate big boss interval games with concave interval games and obtain characterizations of big boss interval games in terms of exactness and subadditivity.
Goldman, Kara N; Tiegs, Ashley W; Uquillas, Kristen; Nachtigall, Margaret; Fino, M Elizabeth; Winkel, Abigail F; Lerner, Veronica
2017-06-01
Resident physicians' scores on the REI section of the CREOG exam are traditionally low, and nearly 40% of house staff nation-wide perceive their REI knowledge to be poor. We aimed to assess whether an interactive case-based group-learning curriculum would narrow the REI knowledge gap by improving understanding and retention of core REI concepts under the time constraints affecting residents. A three-hour case-based workshop was developed to address four primary CREOG objectives. A multiple-choice test was administered immediately before and after the intervention and 7 weeks post-workshop, to evaluate both knowledge and confidence. Following the intervention, residents self-reported increased confidence with counseling and treatment of PCOS, ovulation induction cycle monitoring, counseling and treatment of POI, and breaking bad news related to infertility (p < 0.05). The multiple-choice exam was re-administered 7 weeks post-intervention, and scores remained significantly improved compared to pre-workshop scores (p < 0.05). At that time, all residents either strongly agreed (91.7%) or agreed (8.3%) that the case-based interactive format was preferable to traditional lecture-based teaching. In conclusion, a nontraditional curriculum aimed at teaching core REI concepts to residents through interactive case-based learning can be successfully integrated into a residency curriculum, and significantly improves knowledge and confidence of critical concepts in REI.
Garra, Gregory; Albino, Hiram; Chapman, Heather; Singer, Adam J; Thode, Henry C
2010-06-01
Communication barriers (CBs) compromise the diagnostic power of the medical interview and may result in increased reliance on diagnostic tests or incorrect test ordering. The prevalence and degree to which these barriers affect diagnosis, testing, and treatment are unknown. To quantify and characterize CBs encountered in the Emergency Department (ED), and assess the effect of CBs on initial diagnosis and perceived reliance on ancillary testing. This was a prospective survey completed by emergency physicians after initial adult patient encounters. CB severity, diagnostic confidence, and reliance on ancillary testing were quantified on a 100-mm Visual Analog Scale (VAS) from least (0) to most (100). Data were collected on 417 ED patient encounters. CBs were reported in 46%; with a mean severity of 50 mm on a 100-mm VAS with endpoints of "perfect communication and "no communication." Language was the most commonly reported form of CB (28%). More than one CB was identified in 6%. The 100-mm VAS rating of diagnostic confidence was lower in patients with perceived CBs (64 mm) vs. those without CBs (80 mm), p Communication barriers in our ED setting were common, and resulted in lower diagnostic confidence and increased perception that ancillary tests are needed to narrow the diagnosis. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tsagkaraki Petroula A
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Medical doctors routinely undertake a number of practical procedures and these should be performed competently. The UK Postgraduate Medical Education and Training Board (PMETB curriculum lists the procedures trainees should be competent in. We aimed to describe medical practitioner's confidence in their procedural skills, and to define which practical procedures are important in current medical practice. Methods A cross sectional observational study was performed measuring procedural confidence in 181 hospital practitioners at all grades from 2 centres in East Anglia, England. Results Both trainees and consultants provide significant service provision. SpR level doctors perform the widest range and the highest median number of procedures per year. Most consultants perform few if any procedures, however some perform a narrow range at high volume. Cumulative confidence for the procedures tested peaks in the SpR grade. Five key procedures (central line insertion, lumbar puncture, pleural aspiration, ascitic aspiration, and intercostal drain insertion are the most commonly performed, are seen as important generic skills, and correspond to the total number of procedures for which confidence can be maintained. Key determinants of confidence are gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. Conclusion The highest volume of service requirement is for six procedures. The procedural confidence is dependent upon gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. This has implications for those designing the training curriculum and with regards the move to shorten the duration of training.
A CHF Model in Narrow Gaps under Saturated Boiling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Suki; Kim, Hyeonil; Park, Cheol
2014-01-01
Many researchers have paid a great attention to the CHF in narrow gaps due to enormous industrial applications. Especially, a great number of researches on the CHF have been carried out in relation to nuclear safety issues such as in-vessel retention for nuclear power plants during a severe accident. Analytical studies to predict the CHF in narrow gaps have been also reported. Yu et al. (2012) developed an analytical model to predict the CHF on downward facing and inclined heaters based on the model of Kandlikar et al. (2001) for an upward facing heater. A new theoretical model is developed to predict the CHF in narrow gaps under saturated pool boiling. This model is applicable when one side of coolant channels or both sides are heated including the effects of heater orientation. The present model is compared with the experimental CHF data obtained in narrow gaps. A new analytical CHF model is proposed to predict CHF for narrow gaps under saturated pool boiling. This model can be applied to one-side or two-sides heating surface and also consider the effects of heater orientation on CHF. The present model is compared with the experimental data obtained in narrow gaps with one heater. The comparisons indicate that the present model shows a good agreement with the experimental CHF data in the horizontal annular tubes. However, it generally under-predicts the experimental data in the narrow rectangular gaps except the data obtained in the gap thickness of 10 mm and the horizontal downward facing heater
Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.
Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A
2018-02-01
Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.
Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.
Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina
2015-01-01
midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mirjana Čižmešija
2016-04-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.
Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.
Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney
2012-06-01
On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.
Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.
Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken
2004-04-01
The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.
Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects.
Biesanz, Jeremy C; Falk, Carl F; Savalei, Victoria
2010-08-06
Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses ( Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Sobel, 1982 ) have in recent years been supplemented by computationally intensive methods such as bootstrapping, the distribution of the product methods, and hierarchical Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These different approaches for assessing mediation are illustrated using data from Dunn, Biesanz, Human, and Finn (2007). However, little is known about how these methods perform relative to each other, particularly in more challenging situations, such as with data that are incomplete and/or nonnormal. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluating a host of approaches for assessing mediation. We examine Type I error rates, power, and coverage. We study normal and nonnormal data as well as complete and incomplete data. In addition, we adapt a method, recently proposed in statistical literature, that does not rely on confidence intervals (CIs) to test the null hypothesis of no indirect effect. The results suggest that the new inferential method-the partial posterior p value-slightly outperforms existing ones in terms of maintaining Type I error rates while maximizing power, especially with incomplete data. Among confidence interval approaches, the bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrapping approach often has inflated Type I error rates and inconsistent coverage and is not recommended; In contrast, the bootstrapped percentile confidence interval and the hierarchical Bayesian MCMC method perform best overall, maintaining Type I error rates, exhibiting reasonable power, and producing stable and accurate coverage rates.
Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?
Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam
2014-01-01
While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...
Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.
Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A
2002-01-01
To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.
The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.
Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu
2011-01-01
This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.
Narrow absorption lines with two observations from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
Chen, Zhi-Fu; Gu, Qiu-Sheng; Chen, Yan-Mei; Cao, Yue
2015-07-01
We assemble 3524 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) with repeated observations to search for variations of the narrow C IV λ λ 1548,1551 and Mg II λ λ 2796,2803 absorption doublets in spectral regions shortward of 7000 Å in the observed frame, which corresponds to time-scales of about 150-2643 d in the quasar rest frame. In these quasar spectra, we detect 3580 C IV absorption systems with zabs = 1.5188-3.5212 and 1809 Mg II absorption systems with zabs = 0.3948-1.7167. In term of the absorber velocity (β) distribution in the quasar rest frame, we find a substantial number of C IV absorbers with β Hacker et al. However, in our Mg II absorption sample, we find that neither shows variable absorption with confident levels of >4σ for λ2796 lines and >3σ for λ2803 lines.
Multilayer Photonic Crystal for Spectral Narrowing of Emission
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhanfang LIU
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Multilayer colloidal crystal has been prepared by the layer-by-layer deposition of silica microspheres on a glass slide. Each layer is a slab consisting of a fcc close-packed colloidal arrays. By properly choosing the sizes of spheres, the whole spectral feature of multilayer colloidal crystal can be tuned. Here, we engineered a multilayer superlattice structure with an effective passband between two stop bands. This gives a strong narrowing effect on emission spectrum. With the stop bands at the shortwave and longwave edges of emission spectrum, the passband in the central wavelength region can be regarded as a strong decrease of suppression effect and enhancement of a narrow wavelength region of emission. The spectral narrowing modification effect of suitably engineered colloidal crystals shows up their importance in potential application as optical filters and lasing devices.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ms.23.3.16320
CT demonstration of pharyngeal narrowing in adult obstructive sleep apnea
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bohlman, M.E.; Haponik, E.F.; Smith, P.L.; Allen, R.P.; Bleecker, E.R.; Goldman, S.M.
1983-01-01
Sleep apnea is a major cause of daytime hypersomnolence. Among the proposed etiologies, focal obstruction of the airways at the level of the pharynx has been suggested but not proven. Using computed tomography, the cross-sectional area of the airway can be readily assessed. Thirty-three adults with clinically proven sleep apnea and 12 normal adults underwent systematic computed tomography of the neck. Significant airway narrowing was demonstrated in all the patients with obstructive sleep apnea, whereas no such narrowing was seen in the controls. In 11, the narrowing was at a single level, whereas in 22 patients two or more levels were affected. This study has shown that a structurally abnormal airway may serve as an anatomic substrate for the development of sleep apnea. On the basis of this evidence, uvulopalatopharyngoplasty has been performed in two patients with relief of symptoms in one
Pressure Fluctuation Characteristics of Narrow Gauge Train Running Through Tunnel
Suzuki, Masahiro; Sakuma, Yutaka
Pressure fluctuations on the sides of narrow (1067 mm) gauge trains running in tunnels are measured for the first time to investigate the aerodynamic force acting on the trains. The present measurements are compared with earlier measurements obtained with the Shinkansen trains. The results are as follows: (1) The aerodynamic force, which stems from pressure fluctuations on the sides of cars, puts the energy into the vibration of the car body running through a tunnel. (2) While the pressure fluctuations appear only on one of the two sides of the trains running in double-track tunnels, the fluctuations in opposite phase on both sides in single-track tunnels. (3) The on-track test data of the narrow gauge trains show the same tendency as those of the Shinkansen trains, although it is suggested that the pressure fluctuations develop faster along the narrow gauge trains than the Shinkansen trains.
MRI of surgically created pulmonary artery narrowing in the dog
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hernandez, R.J.; Rocchini, A.P.; Bove, E.L.; Chenevert, T.L.; Gubin, B. (Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor (USA). Dept. of Radiology)
1989-11-01
Narrowing of the pulmonary arteries was created surgically in twelve dogs. In six of the dogs the narrowing was central (main pulmonary artery), and in the remaining six the narrowing was located peripherally at the hilar level of the right pulmonary artery beyond the pericardial reflection. MRI and angiography were performed in all dogs. MRI clearly delineated the site of the pulmonary band and the caliber of the pulmonary artery at the site of the band in all dogs (N=6). MRI was not able to visualize any of the stenosis of the right pulmonary arteries at the hila, beyond the pericardial reflection. In addition, optimal imaging planes to depict each segment of the central pulmonary arteries were determined. The capability to image in oblique planes is essential in evaluating the morphology of the central pulmonary arteries. (orig.).
MRI of surgically created pulmonary artery narrowing in the dog
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hernandez, R.J.; Rocchini, A.P.; Bove, E.L.; Chenevert, T.L.; Gubin, B.
1989-01-01
Narrowing of the pulmonary arteries was created surgically in twelve dogs. In six of the dogs the narrowing was central (main pulmonary artery), and in the remaining six the narrowing was located peripherally at the hilar level of the right pulmonary artery beyond the pericardial reflection. MRI and angiography were performed in all dogs. MRI clearly delineated the site of the pulmonary band and the caliber of the pulmonary artery at the site of the band in all dogs (N=6). MRI was not able to visualize any of the stenosis of the right pulmonary arteries at the hila, beyond the pericardial reflection. In addition, optimal imaging planes to depict each segment of the central pulmonary arteries were determined. The capability to image in oblique planes is essential in evaluating the morphology of the central pulmonary arteries. (orig.)
Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.
2015-01-01
A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…
Narrow-width mechanism of a=5 Ξ-state
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kumagai-Fuse, I.; Akaishi, Y.
1995-04-01
Narrow-width mechanism of ≡ 5 H is discussed by calculating conversion widths to all its possible decay channels. Since the conversion processes have small reaction Q values, the three- and four- body decays are strongly suppressed owing to small phase volumes available. Decay widths to the two-body channels are significantly reduced by the distortion of emitted-particle waves. This mechanism brings about a narrow width of ≡ 5 H. The total width is estimated to be 0.87 MeV, in which the largest contribution comes from the decay into the Λ 4 H * +Λ channel. (author)
Interpregnancy intervals: impact of postpartum contraceptive effectiveness and coverage.
Thiel de Bocanegra, Heike; Chang, Richard; Howell, Mike; Darney, Philip
2014-04-01
The purpose of this study was to determine the use of contraceptive methods, which was defined by effectiveness, length of coverage, and their association with short interpregnancy intervals, when controlling for provider type and client demographics. We identified a cohort of 117,644 women from the 2008 California Birth Statistical Master file with second or higher order birth and at least 1 Medicaid (Family Planning, Access, Care, and Treatment [Family PACT] program or Medi-Cal) claim within 18 months after index birth. We explored the effect of contraceptive method provision on the odds of having an optimal interpregnancy interval and controlled for covariates. The average length of contraceptive coverage was 3.81 months (SD = 4.84). Most women received user-dependent hormonal contraceptives as their most effective contraceptive method (55%; n = 65,103 women) and one-third (33%; n = 39,090 women) had no contraceptive claim. Women who used long-acting reversible contraceptive methods had 3.89 times the odds and women who used user-dependent hormonal methods had 1.89 times the odds of achieving an optimal birth interval compared with women who used barrier methods only; women with no method had 0.66 times the odds. When user-dependent methods are considered, the odds of having an optimal birth interval increased for each additional month of contraceptive coverage by 8% (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.09). Women who were seen by Family PACT or by both Family PACT and Medi-Cal providers had significantly higher odds of optimal birth intervals compared with women who were served by Medi-Cal only. To achieve optimal birth spacing and ultimately to improve birth outcomes, attention should be given to contraceptive counseling and access to contraceptive methods in the postpartum period. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
Direct Interval Forecasting of Wind Power
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wan, Can; Xu, Zhao; Pinson, Pierre
2013-01-01
This letter proposes a novel approach to directly formulate the prediction intervals of wind power generation based on extreme learning machine and particle swarm optimization, where prediction intervals are generated through direct optimization of both the coverage probability and sharpness...
A note on birth interval distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shrestha, G.
1989-08-01
A considerable amount of work has been done regarding the birth interval analysis in mathematical demography. This paper is prepared with the intention of reviewing some probability models related to interlive birth intervals proposed by different researchers. (author). 14 refs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bensch, Frank V.; Koivikko, Mika P.; Koskinen, Seppo K.; Kiuru, Martti J.
2009-01-01
To assess the reliability of measurements of spinal canal narrowing, vertebral body compression, and interpedicular widening in burst fractures in radiography compared with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). Patients who had confirmed acute vertebral burst fractures over an interval of 34 months underwent both MDCT and radiography. Measurements of spinal canal narrowing, vertebral body compression, and interpedicular widening from MDCT and radiography were compared. The 108 patients (30 female, 78 male, aged 16-79 years, mean 39 years) had 121 burst fractures. Eleven patients had multiple fractures, of which seven were not contiguous. Measurements showed a strong positive correlation between radiography and MDCT (Spearman's rank sum test: spinal canal narrowing k = 0.50-0.82, vertebral compression k = 0.55-0.72, and interpedicular widening k = 0.81-0.91, all P 0.25) and for interpedicular widening in the thoracic spine (k = 0.35, P = 0.115). The average difference in measurements between the modalities was 3 mm or fewer. Radiography demonstrates interpedicular widening, spinal canal narrowing and vertebral compression with acceptable precision, with the exception of those of the cervical spine. (orig.)
Identifying the bad guy in a lineup using confidence judgments under deadline pressure.
Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Wootton, David; Lindsay, D Stephen
2012-10-01
Eyewitness-identification tests often culminate in witnesses not picking the culprit or identifying innocent suspects. We tested a radical alternative to the traditional lineup procedure used in such tests. Rather than making a positive identification, witnesses made confidence judgments under a short deadline about whether each lineup member was the culprit. We compared this deadline procedure with the traditional sequential-lineup procedure in three experiments with retention intervals ranging from 5 min to 1 week. A classification algorithm that identified confidence criteria that optimally discriminated accurate from inaccurate decisions revealed that decision accuracy was 24% to 66% higher under the deadline procedure than under the traditional procedure. Confidence profiles across lineup stimuli were more informative than were identification decisions about the likelihood that an individual witness recognized the culprit or correctly recognized that the culprit was not present. Large differences between the maximum and the next-highest confidence value signaled very high accuracy. Future support for this procedure across varied conditions would highlight a viable alternative to the problematic lineup procedures that have traditionally been used by law enforcement.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meyer, E.; Yamamoto, Y.L.; Thompson, C.J.
1978-01-01
The 90% confidence limits have been determined for regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) values obtained in each cm 2 of a cross section of the human head after inhalation of radioactive krypton-77, using the MNI circular positron emission tomography system (Positome). CBF values for small brain tissue elements are calculated by linear regression analysis on the semi-logarithmically transformed clearance curve. A computer program displays CBF values and their estimated error in numeric and gray scale forms. The following typical results have been obtained on a control subject: mean CBF in the entire cross section of the head: 54.6 + - 5 ml/min/100 g tissue, rCBF for small area of frontal gray matter: 75.8 + - 9 ml/min/100 g tissue. Confidence intervals for individual rCBF values varied between + - 13 and + - 55% except for areas pertaining to the ventricular system where particularly poor statistics have been obtained. Knowledge of confidence limits for rCBF values improves their diagnostic significance, particularly with respect to the assessment of reduced rCBF in stroke patients. A nomogram for convenient determination of 90% confidence limits for slope values obtained in linear regression analysis has been designed with the number of fitted points (n) and the correlation coefficient (r) as parameters. (author)
Optimal Data Interval for Estimating Advertising Response
Gerard J. Tellis; Philip Hans Franses
2006-01-01
The abundance of highly disaggregate data (e.g., at five-second intervals) raises the question of the optimal data interval to estimate advertising carryover. The literature assumes that (1) the optimal data interval is the interpurchase time, (2) too disaggregate data causes a disaggregation bias, and (3) recovery of true parameters requires assumption of the underlying advertising process. In contrast, we show that (1) the optimal data interval is what we call , (2) too disaggregate data do...
Dynamic visual noise reduces confidence in short-term memory for visual information.
Kemps, Eva; Andrade, Jackie
2012-05-01
Previous research has shown effects of the visual interference technique, dynamic visual noise (DVN), on visual imagery, but not on visual short-term memory, unless retention of precise visual detail is required. This study tested the prediction that DVN does also affect retention of gross visual information, specifically by reducing confidence. Participants performed a matrix pattern memory task with three retention interval interference conditions (DVN, static visual noise and no interference control) that varied from trial to trial. At recall, participants indicated whether or not they were sure of their responses. As in previous research, DVN did not impair recall accuracy or latency on the task, but it did reduce recall confidence relative to static visual noise and no interference. We conclude that DVN does distort visual representations in short-term memory, but standard coarse-grained recall measures are insensitive to these distortions.
Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago
2008-04-02
A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.
Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?
M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)
2012-01-01
textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this
Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.
Earle, Timothy C
2009-06-01
The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.
True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments
Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.
2015-01-01
Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…
The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory
Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina
2012-01-01
The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…
Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions
Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon
2012-01-01
Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…
A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food
Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.
2008-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,
Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?
Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei
2012-01-01
The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…
Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study
Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.
2004-01-01
Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor
Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory
Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.
2009-01-01
A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…
Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence
Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri
2013-01-01
How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of
To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...
Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sandra Buratti
2012-09-01
Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.
Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions
Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano
2014-01-01
Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments
On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.
Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas
2018-02-01
Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression
Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.
2012-01-01
Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harbitz, O.; Isaksson, R.
2006-01-01
The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. The following list contains thoughts related to restoring lost confidence: - hard, long lasting event; - strategy: maximum transparency; - to listen, be open, give phone numbers etc. - ways to rebuild trust: frequent communication, being there, open and transparent; - don't be too defensive; if things could be done better, say it; - technical staff and public affair staff together from the beginning - answer all questions; - classifications, actions, instructions that differ much from the earlier ones must be well explained and motivated - and still cause a lot of problems; - things may turn out to be political; - communicative work in an early stage saves work later; - communication experts must be working shoulder to shoulder with other staff; On handling emergencies in general, some recipes proposed are: - better to over react than to under react; - do not avoid extreme actions: hit hard, hit fast; - base your decisions in strict principles; - first principle: public safety first; - when you are realizing plant A, you must have a plant B in your pocket: - be transparent - from the beginning; - crisis communication: early, frequent etc - people need to see political leaders, someone who is making decisions - technical experts are needed but are not enough. On how to involve stakeholders and the public in decision making, recommendations are: - new kind of thinking -. demanding for a organisation; - go to local level, meet local people, speak language people understand, you have to start from the very beginning - introducing yourself tell who you are and why you are there. (authors)
An Adequate First Order Logic of Intervals
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chaochen, Zhou; Hansen, Michael Reichhardt
1998-01-01
This paper introduces left and right neighbourhoods as primitive interval modalities to define other unary and binary modalities of intervals in a first order logic with interval length. A complete first order logic for the neighbourhood modalities is presented. It is demonstrated how the logic can...... support formal specification and verification of liveness and fairness, and also of various notions of real analysis....
Consistency and refinement for Interval Markov Chains
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Delahaye, Benoit; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel
2012-01-01
Interval Markov Chains (IMC), or Markov Chains with probability intervals in the transition matrix, are the base of a classic specification theory for probabilistic systems [18]. The standard semantics of IMCs assigns to a specification the set of all Markov Chains that satisfy its interval...
Multivariate interval-censored survival data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hougaard, Philip
2014-01-01
Interval censoring means that an event time is only known to lie in an interval (L,R], with L the last examination time before the event, and R the first after. In the univariate case, parametric models are easily fitted, whereas for non-parametric models, the mass is placed on some intervals, de...
Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.
Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R
2015-08-01
Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.
Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance
Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan
2016-01-01
A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739
Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.
Neerland, Carrie E
2018-06-06
Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.
The Argument for a Narrow Conception of 'Religious Autonomy'
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Lisbet
2015-01-01
This article argues for a both horizontal and vertical narrow concept of collective freedom of Religion. The most recent ECtHR judgments as well as the US Supreme Court Hosanna-Tabor case leads theory to establish religious autonomy based on parallel legal roders. Nordic theory has been based...
Predicting soil nitrogen content using narrow-band indices from ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Optimal fertiliser applications for sustainable forest stand productivity management, whilst protecting the environment, is vital. This study estimated soil nitrogen content using leaf-level narrow-band vegetation indices derived from a hand-held 350–2 500 nm spectroradiometer. Leaf-level spectral data were collected and ...
Nonstationary Narrow-Band Response and First-Passage Probability
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krenk, Steen
1979-01-01
The notion of a nonstationary narrow-band stochastic process is introduced without reference to a frequency spectrum, and the joint distribution function of two consecutive maxima is approximated by use of an envelope. Based on these definitions the first passage problem is treated as a Markov po...
Free-Molecular Gas Flow in Narrow (Nanoscale) Channel
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Levdansky, V.V.; Roldugin, V.I.; Žďanov, V.M.; Ždímal, Vladimír
2014-01-01
Roč. 87, č. 4 (2014), s. 802-814 ISSN 1062-0125 Grant - others:BRFFI(BY) T12P-018; RFBR(RU) 12-08-90009 Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : narrow channels * free-molecular gas flow * surface diffusion Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry
Experimental Study on Critical Power in a Hemispherical Narrow Gap
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Rae-Joon; Ha, Kwang-Soon; Kim, Sang-Baik; Kim, Hee-Dong; Jeong, Ji-Hwan
2002-01-01
An experimental study of critical heat flux in gap (CHFG) has been performed to investigate the inherent cooling mechanism in a hemispherical narrow gap. The objectives of the CHFG test are to measure critical power from a critical heat removal rate through the hemispherical narrow gap using distilled water with experimental parameters of system pressure and gap width. The CHFG test results have shown that a countercurrent flow limitation (CCFL) brings about local dryout at the small edge region of the upper part and finally global dryout in a hemispherical narrow gap. Increases in the gap width and pressure lead to an increase in critical power. The measured values of critical power are lower than the predictions made by other empirical CHF correlations applicable to flat plate, annuli, and small spherical gaps. The measured data on critical power in the hemispherical narrow gaps have been correlated using nondimensional parameters with a range of approximately ±20%. The developed correlation has been expanded to apply the spherical geometry using the Siemens/KWU correlation
Career Attainment among Healthcare Executives: Is the Gender Gap Narrowing?
Branin, Joan Julia
2009-01-01
Health care occupations are expected to be among the fastest growing professions in the next ten years. With such incredible growth expected in employment and wages, and with women's participation in the industry remaining strong, are women in the health care industry, particularly those in health care administration, experiencing a narrowing of…
Narrow-Band Imaging: Clinical Application in Gastrointestinal Endoscopy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sandra Barbeiro
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Narrow-band imaging is an advanced imaging system that applies optic digital methods to enhance endoscopic images and improves visualization of the mucosal surface architecture and microvascular pattern. Narrow-band imaging use has been suggested to be an important adjunctive tool to white-light endoscopy to improve the detection of lesions in the digestive tract. Importantly, it also allows the distinction between benign and malignant lesions, targeting biopsies, prediction of the risk of invasive cancer, delimitation of resection margins, and identification of residual neoplasia in a scar. Thus, in expert hands it is a useful tool that enables the physician to decide on the best treatment (endoscopic or surgical and management. Current evidence suggests that it should be used routinely for patients at increased risk for digestive neoplastic lesions and could become the standard of care in the near future, at least in referral centers. However, adequate training programs to promote the implementation of narrow-band imaging in daily clinical practice are needed. In this review, we summarize the current scientific evidence on the clinical usefulness of narrow-band imaging in the diagnosis and characterization of digestive tract lesions/cancers and describe the available classification systems.
Note: Folded optical system for narrow forward looking probe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hou, Hsuan-Chao; Hah, Dooyoung; Kim, Jeonghwan; Feldman, M.
2014-01-01
An optical system is described in which a laser beam makes three passes through a single graded index lens, forming a focus along the optic axis. It has important applications in endoscopic probes, where the forward looking characteristic permits the avoidance of obstacles and the narrow structure makes it minimally invasive
Modeling of air flow through a narrow crack
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trojek, T.; Cechak, T.; Moucka, L.; Fronka, A.
2004-01-01
Radon transport in dwellings is governed to a significant extent by pressure differences and properties of transport pathways. A model of air flow through narrow cracks was created in order to facilitate prediction of air velocity and air flow. Theoretical calculations, based on numerical solution of a system of differential equations, were compared with measurements carried out on a window crack. (P.A.)
Measurements of Narrow Mg II Associated Absorption Doublets with ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
2016-01-27
Jan 27, 2016 ... The measurement of the variations of absorption lines over time is a good method to study the physical conditions of absorbers. In this paper, we measure the variations of the line strength of 36 narrow Mg II2796, 2803 associated absorption doublets, which are imprinted on 31 quasar spectra with two ...
Japanese VLBI Network Observations of a Gamma-Ray Narrow ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
J. Astrophys. Astr. (2014) 35, 215–218 c Indian Academy of Sciences. Japanese VLBI Network Observations of a Gamma-Ray. Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 Galaxy 1H 0323+342. Kiyoaki Wajima1,∗. , Kenta Fujisawa2, Masaaki Hayashida3. & Naoki Isobe4. 1Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences,.
Extrinsic stretching narrowing and anterior indentation of the rectosigmoid junction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schulman, A.; Fataar, S.
1979-01-01
Thirty-five cases of extrinsic narrowing or anterior indentation of the rectosigmoid junction (RSJ) have been studied. The RSJ lies directly behind the pouch of Douglas which is a favoured site for peritoneal metastasis, abscess and endometriosis. Any space-occupying lesion of sufficient size at this site will indent the anterior aspects of the RSJ. Causes include distension or tumour of the ileum or sigmoid colon, gross ascites (when the patient is erect), and tumours below the pelvic peritonium, such as gynaecological neoplasm and internal iliac artery aneurysm. When a desmoplastic metastasis in the pouch of Douglas infiltrates the outer layers of the RSJ, the fibrosis produces an eccentric shortening on its anterior aspect, which in turn causes a pleating of the mucosa with the folds radiating towards the shortened area. This is also seen with primary pelvic carcinomas directly adherent to the rectum, endometriosis with repeated bleeding and increasing eccentric, submucosal fibrosis, and chronic abscess in the pouch of Douglas. Not all extrinsic narrowing of the RSJ are pathological. One case of anterior indentation followed operation for rectal prolapse. Ten additional cases showed narrowing due to a technical artefact air-distended colon rising into the upper abdomen to cause stretching at the RSJ. As with ascites, this narrowing due to 'high-rise sigmoid' disappeared when the patients became recumbent and the colonic air redistributed. (author)
Narrow coherent effects in πNN-dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kudryavtsev, A.E.; Obrant, G.Z.
1990-01-01
Coherent effect production is considered in πNN-dynamics with resonant pion-nucleon interaction via Brueckner theory and Faddev equations. It is shown that the narrow energy and final momentum dependence can arise in the inelastic S-wave πd-scattering. The energy dependence peculiarities can have a width an order magnitude less than πN-resonance one
A "Narrowing of Inquiry" in American Moral Psychology and Education
Richardson, Michael J.; Slife, Brent D.
2013-01-01
We explore the possibility that a priori philosophical commitments continue to result in a narrowing of inquiry in moral psychology and education where theistic worldviews are concerned. Drawing from the theories of Edward L. Thorndike and John Dewey, we examine naturalistic philosophical commitments that influenced the study of moral psychology…
Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda
2014-05-01
To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial
The ABC of Gender Equality in Education: Aptitude, Behaviour, Confidence
OECD Publishing, 2015
2015-01-01
Over the past century, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries have made significant progress in narrowing or closing long-standing gender gaps in many areas of education and employment, including educational attainment, pay and labour market participation. But new gender gaps in education are opening. Young men…
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Madan-Sharma, Ruby; Kornaat, Peter R.; Bloem, Johannes L.; Watt, Iain [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Leiden (Netherlands); Kloppenburg, Margreet; Botha-Scheepers, Stella A. [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Rheumatology, Leiden (Netherlands); Graverand, Marie-Pierre Hellio le [Pfizer Groton, Groton, CT (United States)
2008-09-15
The purpose of the study was to relate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features at baseline with radiographically determined joint space narrowing (JSN) in the medial compartment of the knee after 2 years in a group of patients with symptomatic osteoarthritis at multiple joint sites. MRI of the knee and standardized radiographs were obtained at baseline and after 2 years in 186 patients (81% female; aged 43-76 years; mean 60 years). MRI was analyzed for bone marrow lesions, cysts, osteophytes, hyaline cartilage defects, joint effusion, and meniscal pathology in the medial compartment. Radiographs were scored semiquantitatively for JSN in the medial tibiofemoral joint using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) atlas. Radiological progression was defined as {>=}1 grade increase. Associations between baseline magnetic resonance (MR) parameters and subsequent radiographic JSN changes were assessed using logistic regression. Relative risk (RR) was then calculated. Radiographic progression of JSN was observed in 17 (9.1%) of 186 patients. Eleven patients had a Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) score of {>=}2. A significant association was observed between all patients and meniscal tears (RR 3.57; confidence interval (CI) 1.08-10.0) and meniscal subluxation (RR 2.73; CI 1.20-5.41), between KL<2 and meniscal subluxation (RR 11.3; CI 2.49-29.49) and KL {>=} 2 and meniscus tears (RR 8.91; CI 1.13-22.84) and radiographic JSN 2 years later. Follow-up MR in 15 of 17 patients with progressive JSN showed only new meniscal abnormalities and no progression of cartilage loss. Meniscal pathology (tears and/or meniscal subluxation) was the only MRI parameter to be associated with subsequent radiographic progression of JSN in the medial tibiofemoral compartment on a radiograph 2 years later, as assessed by the OARSI score. (orig.)
Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics
Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy
2008-09-01
This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.
Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.
Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N
2017-11-01
Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.
Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christof Schwenkel
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public
Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.
Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix
2017-01-01
Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering
1996-12-31
This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in
Interval prediction for graded multi-label classification
Lastra, Gerardo; Bahamonde, Antonio
2014-01-01
Multi-label was introduced as an extension of multi-class classification. The aim is to predict a set of classes (called labels in this context) instead of a single one, namely the set of relevant labels. If membership to the set of relevant labels is defined to a certain degree, the learning task is called graded multi-label classification. These learning tasks can be seen as a set of ordinal classifications. Hence, recommender systems can be considered as multi-label classification tasks. In this paper, we present a new type of nondeterministic learner that, for each instance, tries to predict at the same time the true grade for each label. When the classification is uncertain for a label, however, the hypotheses predict a set of consecutive grades, i.e., an interval. The goal is to keep the set of predicted grades as small as possible; while still containing the true grade. We shall see that these classifiers take advantage of the interrelations of labels. The result is that, with quite narrow intervals, i...
Shortening of ventriculoatrial interval after ablation of an accessory pathway
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Alasti
2006-10-01
Full Text Available A 21-year old man with history of 8 year palpitation was referred for electrophysiologic study and possible radiofrequency ablation. Physical examination and transthoracic echocardiographic study did not disclose any abnormality. Baseline ECG showed normal sinus rhythm with normal PR and QRS intervals and no evidence of preexcitation. Antiarrhythmic drugs (propranolol and verapamil were discontinued two days before the procedure. Baseline intervals in sinus rhythm were as follows: sinus cycle length=690 msec, AH=74 msec, HV=37 msec, QRS=90 msec, PR=133 msec. The minimal pacing cycle length maintaining 1:1 antegrade conduction (AVWP was 320 msec and the minimal pacing cycle length maintaining 1:1 retrograde conduction (VAWP was 400 msec. Single extrastimulus testing in the right atrium and the right ventricular apex leaded to a sustained narrow complex tachycardia. The arrhythmia was a short PR- long RP tachycardia with following characteristics: cycle length=376 msec, AH=141 msec, HV=42 msec, VA=200 msec, HA (HRA =236 msec, HA (His =243 msec and eccentric atrial activation during the arrhythmia (Figure 1. The arrhythmia was easily reproducible with stable hemodynamic.
Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Carretta, Elisa; Mangone, Lucia; Baracco, Susanna; Serraino, Diego; Zorzi, Manuel
2018-03-01
Objective In Italy, colorectal screening programmes using the faecal immunochemical test from ages 50 to 69 every two years have been in place since 2005. We aimed to measure the incidence of interval cancers in the two years after a negative faecal immunochemical test, and compare this with the pre-screening incidence of colorectal cancer. Methods Using data on colorectal cancers diagnosed in Italy from 2000 to 2008 collected by cancer registries in areas with active screening programmes, we identified cases that occurred within 24 months of negative screening tests. We used the number of tests with a negative result as a denominator, grouped by age and sex. Proportional incidence was calculated for the first and second year after screening. Results Among 579,176 and 226,738 persons with negative test results followed up at 12 and 24 months, respectively, we identified 100 interval cancers in the first year and 70 in the second year. The proportional incidence was 13% (95% confidence interval 10-15) and 23% (95% confidence interval 18-25), respectively. The estimate for the two-year incidence is 18%, which was slightly higher in females (22%; 95% confidence interval 17-26), and for proximal colon (22%; 95% confidence interval 16-28). Conclusion The incidence of interval cancers in the two years after a negative faecal immunochemical test in routine population-based colorectal cancer screening was less than one-fifth of the expected incidence. This is direct evidence that the faecal immunochemical test-based screening programme protocol has high sensitivity for cancers that will become symptomatic.
Decoded fMRI neurofeedback can induce bidirectional confidence changes within single participants.
Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Lau, Hakwan; Kawato, Mitsuo
2017-04-01
Neurofeedback studies using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rt-fMRI) have recently incorporated the multi-voxel pattern decoding approach, allowing for fMRI to serve as a tool to manipulate fine-grained neural activity embedded in voxel patterns. Because of its tremendous potential for clinical applications, certain questions regarding decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) must be addressed. Specifically, can the same participants learn to induce neural patterns in opposite directions in different sessions? If so, how does previous learning affect subsequent induction effectiveness? These questions are critical because neurofeedback effects can last for months, but the short- to mid-term dynamics of such effects are unknown. Here we employed a within-subjects design, where participants underwent two DecNef training sessions to induce behavioural changes of opposing directionality (up or down regulation of perceptual confidence in a visual discrimination task), with the order of training counterbalanced across participants. Behavioral results indicated that the manipulation was strongly influenced by the order and the directionality of neurofeedback training. We applied nonlinear mathematical modeling to parametrize four main consequences of DecNef: main effect of change in confidence, strength of down-regulation of confidence relative to up-regulation, maintenance of learning effects, and anterograde learning interference. Modeling results revealed that DecNef successfully induced bidirectional confidence changes in different sessions within single participants. Furthermore, the effect of up- compared to down-regulation was more prominent, and confidence changes (regardless of the direction) were largely preserved even after a week-long interval. Lastly, the effect of the second session was markedly diminished as compared to the effect of the first session, indicating strong anterograde learning interference. These results are interpreted in the framework
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shimizu, Ryosuke; Ota, Nobuyuki; Nagase, Makoto; Aizawa, Motohiro; Ishida, Kazushige; Wada, Yoichi
2014-01-01
The environmental mitigation effect of NMCA in a narrow space was evaluated by experimental and computational approaches. In the experiment at 8 MPa and 553K, T-tube whose branched line had a narrow space was prepared, and the Zr electrodes were set in the branched line at certain intervals, which were 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 15 and 29 cm from the opening section of the branched line. Electrochemical corrosion potential (ECP) at the tip of the branched narrow space varied in response to the water chemistry in the main line which was at right angle with the branched line. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis reproduced the experimental results. It was also confirmed by CFD analysis that the ingress of water from the main line into the narrow space was accelerated by cavity flow and thermal convection. By CFD analysis in a thermal sleeve of actual plant condition, which had a narrow space, the concentration of dissolved oxygen at a tip of the thermal sleeve reached at 250 ppb within 300 sec, which was the same concentration of the main line. Noble metal deposition on the surface of the thermal sleeve was evaluated by mass transfer model. Noble metal deposition was the largest near the opening section of the branched line, and gradually decreased toward the tip section. In light of the consumption of dissolved oxygen in the branched line, noble metal deposition in the thermal sleeve was sufficient to reduce the ECP. It was expected that NMCA could mitigate the corrosion environment in the thermal sleeve. (author)
Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.
Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene
2014-01-01
Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.
CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007
2007-01-01
"Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)
Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sébastien eMassoni
2014-12-01
Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.
Confidence-building measures in the Asia-Pacific region
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qin Huasun
1991-01-01
The regional confidence-building, security and disarmament issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular, support to non-proliferation regime and establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones are reviewed
Building Supervisory Confidence--A Key to Transfer of Training
Byham, William C.; Robinson, James
1977-01-01
A training concept is described which suggests that efforts toward maintaining and/or building the confidence of the participants in supervisory training programs can increase their likelihood of using the skills on the job. (TA)
Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2009-06-01
The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between
Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
2008-12-15
The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between
Sequential Interval Estimation of a Location Parameter with Fixed Width in the Nonregular Case
Koike, Ken-ichi
2007-01-01
For a location-scale parameter family of distributions with a finite support, a sequential confidence interval with a fixed width is obtained for the location parameter, and its asymptotic consistency and efficiency are shown. Some comparisons with the Chow-Robbins procedure are also done.
The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Florent Meyniel
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems
Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data
Gehrels, N.
1986-01-01
The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.
Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Hotz
2016-10-01
Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.
Learning style and confidence: an empirical investigation of Japanese employees
Yoshitaka Yamazaki
2012-01-01
This study aims to examine how learning styles relate to employees' confidence through a view of Kolb's experiential learning theory. For this aim, an empirical investigation was conducted using the sample of 201 Japanese employees who work for a Japanese multinational corporation. Results illustrated that the learning style group of acting orientation described a significantly higher level of job confidence than that of reflecting orientation, whereas the two groups of feeling and thinking o...
Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuzio, S.
2001-01-01
The purpose of this analysis is to develop a probability distribution for flowing interval spacing. A flowing interval is defined as a fractured zone that transmits flow in the Saturated Zone (SZ), as identified through borehole flow meter surveys (Figure 1). This analysis uses the term ''flowing interval spacing'' as opposed to fractured spacing, which is typically used in the literature. The term fracture spacing was not used in this analysis because the data used identify a zone (or a flowing interval) that contains fluid-conducting fractures but does not distinguish how many or which fractures comprise the flowing interval. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. Fracture spacing within the SZ is defined as the spacing between fractures, with no regard to which fractures are carrying flow. The Development Plan associated with this analysis is entitled, ''Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing'', (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The parameter from this analysis may be used in the TSPA SR/LA Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Work Direction and Planning Documents: (1) ''Abstraction of Matrix Diffusion for SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a) and (2) ''Incorporation of Heterogeneity in SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'', (CRWMS M and O 1999b). A limitation of this analysis is that the probability distribution of flowing interval spacing may underestimate the effect of incorporating matrix diffusion processes in the SZ transport model because of the possible overestimation of the flowing interval spacing. Larger flowing interval spacing results in a decrease in the matrix diffusion processes. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be determined from the data. Because each flowing interval probably has more than one fracture contributing to a flowing interval, the true flowing interval spacing could be
The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.
1999-01-01
Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results
Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.
Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador
2013-01-01
Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.
Narrow power deposition profiles on the JET divertor target
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lingertat, J.; Laux, M.; Monk, R.
2001-01-01
One of the key unresolved issues in the design of a future fusion reactor is the power handling capability of the divertor target plates. Earlier we reported on the existence of narrow power deposition profiles in JET, obtained mainly from Langmuir probe measurements. We repeated these measurements in the MkI, MkII and MkIIGB divertor configurations with an upgraded probe system, which allowed us to study the profile shape in more detail. The main results of this study are: In NB heated discharges the electron temperature and power flux at the outer target show a distinct peak of ∼5 mm half-width near the separatrix strike point. The corresponding profiles on the inner target do not show a similar feature. The height of the narrow peak increases with NB heating power and decreases with deuterium and impurity gas puffing. Ion orbit losses are suggested as a possible explanation of the observed profile shape
Experimental research on flow instability in vertical narrow annuli
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
WU Geping; QIU Suizheng; SU Guanghui; JIA Dounan
2007-01-01
A narrow annular test section of 1.5mm gap and 1800mm length was designed and manufactured, with good tightness and insulation. Experiments were carried out to investigate characteristics of flow instability of forced-convection in vertical narrow annuli. Using distilled water as work fluid, the experiments were conducted at pressures of 1.0～3.0 MPa, mass flow rates of 3.0～25 kg/h, heating power of 3.0～ 6.5kW and inlet fluid temperature of 20 ℃, 40 ℃ or 60℃. It was found that flow instability occured with fixed inlet condition and heating power when mass flow rate was below a special value. Effects of inlet subcooling, system pressure and mass flow rate on the system behavior were studied and the instability region was given.
Coulomb and nuclear excitations of narrow resonances in 17Ne
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Marganiec
2016-08-01
Full Text Available New experimental data for dissociation of relativistic 17Ne projectiles incident on targets of lead, carbon, and polyethylene targets at GSI are presented. Special attention is paid to the excitation and decay of narrow resonant states in 17Ne. Distributions of internal energy in the O15+p+p three-body system have been determined together with angular and partial-energy correlations between the decay products in different energy regions. The analysis was done using existing experimental data on 17Ne and its mirror nucleus 17N. The isobaric multiplet mass equation is used for assignment of observed resonances and their spins and parities. A combination of data from the heavy and light targets yielded cross sections and transition probabilities for the Coulomb excitations of the narrow resonant states. The resulting transition probabilities provide information relevant for a better understanding of the 17Ne structure.
Period effects, cohort effects, and the narrowing gender wage gap.
Campbell, Colin; Pearlman, Jessica
2013-11-01
Despite the abundance of sociological research on the gender wage gap, questions remain. In particular, the role of cohorts is under investigated. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we use age-period-cohort analysis to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the gender wage gap. The narrowing of the gender wage gap that occurred between 1975 and 2009 is largely due to cohort effects. Since the mid-1990s, the gender wage gap has continued to close absent of period effects. While gains in female wages contributed to declines in the gender wage gap for cohorts born before 1950, for later cohorts the narrowing of the gender wage gap is primarily a result of declines in male wages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Experimental Study on CHF in a Hemispherical Narrow Gap
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, J.H.; Park, R.J.; Kang, K.H.; Kim, S.B.; Kim, H.D.
1999-01-01
As a part of the SONATA-IV program, KAERI is conducting an experimental investigation of critical heat flux(CHF) in hemispherical narrow gaps. A visualization experiment, VISU-II, was done as the first step to get a visual observation of the flow behaviour inside a hemispherical gap and to understand the CHF-triggering mechanism. It was observed that the counter-current flow limitation (CCFL) phenomenon prevented water from wetting the heater surface and induced CHF. The CHFG (Critical Heat Flux in Gap) test is now being performed to measure the CHF and to investigate the inherent cooling mechanism in hemispherical narrow gaps. Temperature measurements over the heater surface show that the two-phase flow behaviour inside the gaps could be quite different from the other usual CHF experiments. The measured CHF points are lower than the predictions by existing empirical correlations based on the data measured with small-scale horizontal plates and vertical annulus. (authors)
Period Effects, Cohort Effects, and the Narrowing Gender Wage Gap
Campbell, Colin; Pearlman, Jessica
2015-01-01
Despite the abundance of sociological research on the gender wage gap, questions remain. In particular, the role of cohorts is under investigated. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we use Age-Period-Cohort analysis to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the gender wage gap. The narrowing of the gender wage gap that occurred between 1975 and 2009 is largely due to cohort effects. Since the mid-1990s, the gender wage gap has continued to close absent of period effects. While gains in female wages contributed to declines in the gender wage gap for cohorts born before 1950, for later cohorts the narrowing of the gender wage gap is primarily a result of declines in male wages. PMID:24090861
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anjan Mukherjee
2016-08-01
Full Text Available In this paper we introduce the concept of restricted interval valued neutrosophic sets (RIVNS in short. Some basic operations and properties of RIVNS are discussed. The concept of restricted interval valued neutrosophic topology is also introduced together with restricted interval valued neutrosophic finer and restricted interval valued neutrosophic coarser topology. We also define restricted interval valued neutrosophic interior and closer of a restricted interval valued neutrosophic set. Some theorems and examples are cites. Restricted interval valued neutrosophic subspace topology is also studied.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shakespeare, T.P.; Mukherjee, R.K.; Gebski, V.J.
2003-01-01
Confidence levels, clinical significance curves, and risk-benefit contours are tools improving analysis of clinical studies and minimizing misinterpretation of published results, however no software has been available for their calculation. The objective was to develop software to help clinicians utilize these tools. Excel 2000 spreadsheets were designed using only built-in functions, without macros. The workbook was protected and encrypted so that users can modify only input cells. The workbook has 4 spreadsheets for use in studies comparing two patient groups. Sheet 1 comprises instructions and graphic examples for use. Sheet 2 allows the user to input the main study results (e.g. survival rates) into a 2-by-2 table. Confidence intervals (95%), p-value and the confidence level for Treatment A being better than Treatment B are automatically generated. An additional input cell allows the user to determine the confidence associated with a specified level of benefit. For example if the user wishes to know the confidence that Treatment A is at least 10% better than B, 10% is entered. Sheet 2 automatically displays clinical significance curves, graphically illustrating confidence levels for all possible benefits of one treatment over the other. Sheet 3 allows input of toxicity data, and calculates the confidence that one treatment is more toxic than the other. It also determines the confidence that the relative toxicity of the most effective arm does not exceed user-defined tolerability. Sheet 4 automatically calculates risk-benefit contours, displaying the confidence associated with a specified scenario of minimum benefit and maximum risk of one treatment arm over the other. The spreadsheet is freely downloadable at www.ontumor.com/professional/statistics.htm A simple, self-explanatory, freely available spreadsheet calculator was developed using Excel 2000. The incorporated decision-making tools can be used for data analysis and improve the reporting of results of any
New technology for the control of narrow-gap semiconductors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antoniou, I.; Bozhevolnov, V.; Melnikov, Yu.; Yafyasov, A.
2003-01-01
We present the results of the year work in the frame of the EU ESPRIT Project 28890 NTCONGS 'New technology for the control of narrow-gap semiconductors'. This work has involved both theoretical and experimental study, as well as the development of new specific equipment, towards the creation of a new generation of nanoelectronic devices able to operate at 77 K and even at room temperature
US images encoding envelope amplitude following narrow band filtering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sommer, F.G.; Stern, R.A.; Chen, H.S.
1986-01-01
Ultrasonic waveform data from phantoms having differing scattering characteristics and from normal and cirrhotic human liver in vivo were recorded within a standardized dynamic range and filtered with narrow band filters either above or below the mean recorded ultrasonic center frequency. Images created by mapping the amplitudes of received ultrasound following such filtration permitted dramatic differentiation, not discernible in conventional US images, of phantoms having differing scattering characteristics, and of normal and cirrhotic human livers
Elongational viscosity of narrow molar mass distribution polystyrene
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bach, Anders; Almdal, Kristoffer; Rasmussen, Henrik Koblitz
2003-01-01
Transient and steady elongational viscosity has been measured for two narrow molar mass distribution polystyrene melts of molar masses 200 000 and 390 000 by means of a filament stretching rheometer. Total Hencky strains of about five have been obtained. The transient elongational viscosity rises...... above the linear viscoelastic prediction at intermediate strains, indicating strain hardening. The steady elongational viscosities are monotone decreasing functions of elongation rate. At elongation rates larger than the inverse reptation time, the steady elongational viscosity scales linearly...
Cervical spinal canal narrowing and cervical neurologi-cal injuries
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ZHANG Ling
2012-04-01
Full Text Available 【Abstract】Cervical spinal canal narrowing can lead to injury of the spinal cord and neurological symptoms in-cluding neck pain, headache, weakness and parasthesisas. According to previous and recent clinical researches, we investigated the geometric parameters of normal cervical spinal canal including the sagittal and transverse diameters as well as Torg ratio. The mean sagittal diameter of cervical spinal canal at C 1 to C 7 ranges from 15.33 mm to 20.46 mm, the mean transverse diameter at the same levels ranges from 24.45 mm to 27.00 mm and the mean value of Torg ratio is 0.96. With respect to narrow cervical spinal canal, the following charaterstics are found: firstly, extension of the cervical spine results in statistically significant stenosis as compared with the flexed or neutral positions; secondly, females sustain cervical spinal canal narrowing more easily than males; finally, the consistent narrowest cervical canal level is at C 4 for all ethnicity, but there is a slight variation in the sagittal diameter of cervical spinal stenosis (≤14 mm in Whites, ≤ 12 mm in Japanese, ≤13.7 mm in Chinese. Narrow sagittal cervical canal diameter brings about an increased risk of neurological injuries in traumatic, degenerative and inflam-matory conditions and is related with extension of cervical spine, gender, as well as ethnicity. It is hoped that this re-view will be helpful in diagnosing spinal cord and neuro-logical injuries with the geometric parameters of cervical spine in the future. Key words: Spinal cord injuries; Spinal stenosis; Trauma, nervous system
Generation of narrow peaks in spectroscopy of charged particles
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dubbers, Dirk, E-mail: dubbers@physi.uni-heidelberg.de; Schmidt, Ulrich, E-mail: ulrich.schmidt@physi.uni-heidelberg.de
2016-11-21
In spectroscopy of charged particles, narrow peaks may appear in continuous spectra if magnetic transport of the particles is involved. These artefacts, which so far have escaped the attention of investigators, can develop whenever geometric detection efficiency is less than 100%. As such peaks may be misinterpreted as new physics, their generation is investigated, both analytically and experimentally, for various detector configurations, including those used in searches for the spontaneous decay of the vacuum in heavy-ion collisions.
The 1987 Whittier Narrows, California, earthquake: A Metropolitan shock
Hauksson, Egill; Stein, Ross S.
1989-01-01
Just 3 hours after the Whittier Narrows earthquake struck, it became clear that a heretofore unseen geological structure was seismically active beneath metropolitan Los Angeles. Contrary to initial expectations of strike-slip or oblique-slip motion on the Whittier fault, whose north end abuts the aftershock zone, the focal mechanism of the mainshock showed pure thrust faulting on a deep gently inclined surface [Hauksson et al., 1988]. This collection of nine research reports spans the spectru...
Analysis of ultra-narrow ferromagnetic domain walls
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jenkins, Catherine; Paul, David
2012-01-10
New materials with high magnetic anisotropy will have domains separated by ultra-narrow ferromagnetic walls with widths on the order of a few unit cells, approaching the limit where the elastic continuum approximation often used in micromagnetic simulations is accurate. The limits of this approximation are explored, and the static and dynamic interactions with intrinsic crystalline defects and external driving elds are modeled. The results developed here will be important when considering the stability of ultra-high-density storage media.
Three-Prong Distribution of Massive Narrow QCD Jets
Field, Matan; Kosower, David A; Mannelli, Lorenzo; Perez, Gilad
2013-01-01
We study the planar-flow distributions of narrow, highly boosted, massive QCD jets. Using the factorization properties of QCD in the collinear limit, we compute the planar-flow jet function from the one-to-three splitting function at tree-level. We derive the leading-log behavior of the jet function analytically. We also compare our semi-analytic jet function with parton-shower predictions using various generators.
Extended score interval in the assessment of basic surgical skills.
Acosta, Stefan; Sevonius, Dan; Beckman, Anders
2015-01-01
The Basic Surgical Skills course uses an assessment score interval of 0-3. An extended score interval, 1-6, was proposed by the Swedish steering committee of the course. The aim of this study was to analyze the trainee scores in the current 0-3 scored version compared to a proposed 1-6 scored version. Sixteen participants, seven females and nine males, were evaluated in the current and proposed assessment forms by instructors, observers, and learners themselves during the first and second day. In each assessment form, 17 tasks were assessed. The inter-rater reliability between the current and the proposed score sheets were evaluated with intraclass correlation (ICC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The distribution of scores for 'knot tying' at the last time point and 'bowel anastomosis side to side' given by the instructors in the current assessment form showed that the highest score was given in 31 and 62%, respectively. No ceiling effects were found in the proposed assessment form. The overall ICC between the current and proposed score sheets after assessment by the instructors increased from 0.38 (95% CI 0.77-0.78) on Day 1 to 0.83 (95% CI 0.51-0.94) on Day 2. A clear ceiling effect of scores was demonstrated in the current assessment form, questioning its validity. The proposed score sheet provides more accurate scores and seems to be a better feedback instrument for learning technical surgical skills in the Basic Surgical Skills course.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Græsli, Anne Randi; Fahlman, Åsa; Evans, Alina L.
2014-01-01
BackgroundEstablishment of haematological and biochemical reference intervals is important to assess health of animals on individual and population level. Reference intervals for 13 haematological and 34 biochemical variables were established based on 88 apparently healthy free-ranging brown bears...... and marking for ecological studies. For each of the variables, the reference interval was described based on the 95% confidence interval, and differences due to host characteristics sex and age were included if detected. To our knowledge, this is the first report of reference intervals for free-ranging brown...... and the differences due to host factors age and gender can be useful for evaluation of health status in free-ranging European brown bears....
CIMP status of interval colon cancers: another piece to the puzzle.
Arain, Mustafa A; Sawhney, Mandeep; Sheikh, Shehla; Anway, Ruth; Thyagarajan, Bharat; Bond, John H; Shaukat, Aasma
2010-05-01
Colon cancers diagnosed in the interval after a complete colonoscopy may occur due to limitations of colonoscopy or due to the development of new tumors, possibly reflecting molecular and environmental differences in tumorigenesis resulting in rapid tumor growth. In a previous study from our group, interval cancers (colon cancers diagnosed within 5 years of a complete colonoscopy) were almost four times more likely to demonstrate microsatellite instability (MSI) than non-interval cancers. In this study we extended our molecular analysis to compare the CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) status of interval and non-interval colorectal cancers and investigate the relationship between the CIMP and MSI pathways in the pathogenesis of interval cancers. We searched our institution's cancer registry for interval cancers, defined as colon cancers that developed within 5 years of a complete colonoscopy. These were frequency matched in a 1:2 ratio by age and sex to patients with non-interval cancers (defined as colon cancers diagnosed on a patient's first recorded colonoscopy). Archived cancer specimens for all subjects were retrieved and tested for CIMP gene markers. The MSI status of subjects identified between 1989 and 2004 was known from our previous study. Tissue specimens of newly identified cases and controls (between 2005 and 2006) were tested for MSI. There were 1,323 cases of colon cancer diagnosed over the 17-year study period, of which 63 were identified as having interval cancer and matched to 131 subjects with non-interval cancer. Study subjects were almost all Caucasian men. CIMP was present in 57% of interval cancers compared to 33% of non-interval cancers (P=0.004). As shown previously, interval cancers were more likely than non-interval cancers to occur in the proximal colon (63% vs. 39%; P=0.002), and have MSI 29% vs. 11%, P=0.004). In multivariable logistic regression model, proximal location (odds ratio (OR) 1.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1
Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi
2015-03-01
We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.
Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges
2010-01-01
A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....
Present status of heat transfer in narrow gap rectangular channel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sudo, Yukio; Kaminaga, Masanori
1990-01-01
In the safety evaluation for research nuclear reactors, at the time of abnormal transient change and accidents, after the tripping of a primary coolant pump, such event that the flow direction of coolant in a core reverses from steady downward flow to rising flow is supposed. In this case, the coexisting convection field, in which free convection and forced convection coexist, arises in place of forced convection, and especially in the research reactors using plate type fuel like JRR-3, it is important to grasp the heat transfer characteristics in the coexisting convection field in a narrow channel. Jackson et al. proposed the heat transfer correlation equation which can be applied to wide conditions including the coexisting convection zone, but its applicability to a narrow channel has not been confirmed. Based on the experimental results, in this study, the effect that the decrease of gap exerts to the convection heat transfer characteristics reported so far was investigated. The experiment and the results are reported. In this experiment on the coexisting convection zone in a narrow gap, the effect of main flow acceleration arose sufficiently large as compared with the effect of buoyancy, and heat transfer was promoted. (K.I.)
Electron correlations in narrow energy bands: modified polar model approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. Didukh
2008-09-01
Full Text Available The electron correlations in narrow energy bands are examined within the framework of the modified form of polar model. This model permits to analyze the effect of strong Coulomb correlation, inter-atomic exchange and correlated hopping of electrons and explain some peculiarities of the properties of narrow-band materials, namely the metal-insulator transition with an increase of temperature, nonlinear concentration dependence of Curie temperature and peculiarities of transport properties of electronic subsystem. Using a variant of generalized Hartree-Fock approximation, the single-electron Green's function and quasi-particle energy spectrum of the model are calculated. Metal-insulator transition with the change of temperature is investigated in a system with correlated hopping. Processes of ferromagnetic ordering stabilization in the system with various forms of electronic DOS are studied. The static conductivity and effective spin-dependent masses of current carriers are calculated as a function of electron concentration at various DOS forms. The correlated hopping is shown to cause the electron-hole asymmetry of transport and ferromagnetic properties of narrow band materials.
Heavy drinking, impulsivity and attentional narrowing following alcohol cue exposure.
Hicks, Joshua A; Fields, Sherecce; Davis, William E; Gable, Philip A
2015-08-01
Research shows that alcohol-related stimuli have the propensity to capture attention among individuals motivated to consume alcohol. Research has further demonstrated that impulsive individuals are especially prone to this type of attentional bias. Recently, it is suggested that alcohol cue exposure can also produce a general narrowing of attention consistent with the activation of approach motivational states. Based on previous models of addiction and recent research on the activation of approach motivational states, we predicted that impulsive individuals would demonstrate a constriction of attentional focus in response to alcohol cue exposure. Participants (n = 392) completed a task assessing attentional breadth in response to alcohol and non-alcohol cues, followed by measures of alcohol use and impulsivity. The findings revealed that impulsivity scores predicted narrowing of attentional scope following the presentation of alcohol cues for heavier drinkers but not for light drinkers. These results suggest that impulsive individuals who drink more heavily demonstrate a narrowing of attention in the presence of alcohol-related incentive cues. Implications for how these findings might account for the link between impulsivity and alcohol use and misuse are discussed.
Experimental study on occupant evacuation in narrow seat aisle
Huang, Shenshi; Lu, Shouxiang; Lo, Siuming; Li, Changhai; Guo, Yafei
2018-07-01
Narrow seat aisle is an important area in the train car interior due to the large passenger population, however evacuation therein has not gained enough concerns. In this experimental study, the occupant evacuation of the narrow seat aisle area is investigated, with the aisle width of 0.4-0.6 m and the evacuation direction of forward and backward. The evacuation behaviors are analyzed based on the video record, and the discussion is carried out in the aspect of evacuation time, crowdedness, evacuation order, and aisle conflicts. The result shows that with the increasing aisle width, total evacuation time and the average specific evacuation rate decrease. The aisle is crowded for some time, with a large linear occupant densities. The evacuation order of each occupant is mainly related to the seat position. Moreover, it is found that the aisle conflicts can be well described by Burstedde's model. This study gives a useful benchmark for evacuation simulation of narrow seat aisle, and provides reference to safety design of seat area in train cars.
Laser linewidth narrowing using transient spectral hole burning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thiel, Charles W.; Cone, Rufus L. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59715 (United States); Böttger, Thomas, E-mail: tbottger@usfca.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 2130 Fulton Street, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94117 (United States)
2014-08-01
We demonstrate significant narrowing of laser linewidths by high optical density materials with inhomogeneously broadened absorption. As a laser propagates through the material, the nonlinear spectral hole burning process causes a progressive self-filtering of the laser spectrum, potentially reaching values less than the homogeneous linewidth. The transient spectral hole dynamically adjusts itself to the instantaneous frequency of the laser, passively suppressing laser phase noise and side modes over the entire material absorption bandwidth without the need for electronic or optical feedback to the laser. Wide bandwidth laser phase noise suppression was demonstrated using Er{sup 3+} doped Y{sub 2}SiO{sub 5} and LiNbO{sub 3} at 1.5 μm by employing time-delayed self-heterodyne detection of an external cavity diode laser to study the spectral narrowing effect. Our method is not restricted to any particular wavelength or laser system and is attractive for a range of applications where ultra-low phase noise sources are required. - Highlights: • We demonstrate significant laser linewidths narrowing by high optical density materials. • Nonlinear spectral hole burning causes progressive self-filtering of laser spectrum. • Filter dynamically adjusts itself to the instantaneous frequency of the laser. • Demonstrated at 1.5 μm in Er{sup 3+} doped Y{sub 2}SiO{sub 5} and LiNbO{sub 3}. • Linewidth filtering is not restricted to any particular wavelength or laser system.
Photonic bandgap narrowing in conical hollow core Bragg fibers
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ozturk, Fahri Emre; Yildirim, Adem; Kanik, Mehmet [UNAM-National Nanotechnology Research Center, Bilkent University, 06800 Ankara (Turkey); Institute of Materials Science and Nanotechnology, Bilkent University, 06800 Ankara (Turkey); Bayindir, Mehmet, E-mail: bayindir@nano.org.tr [UNAM-National Nanotechnology Research Center, Bilkent University, 06800 Ankara (Turkey); Institute of Materials Science and Nanotechnology, Bilkent University, 06800 Ankara (Turkey); Department of Physics, Bilkent University, 06800 Ankara (Turkey)
2014-08-18
We report the photonic bandgap engineering of Bragg fibers by controlling the thickness profile of the fiber during the thermal drawing. Conical hollow core Bragg fibers were produced by thermal drawing under a rapidly alternating load, which was applied by introducing steep changes to the fiber drawing speed. In conventional cylindrical Bragg fibers, light is guided by omnidirectional reflections from interior dielectric mirrors with a single quarter wave stack period. In conical fibers, the diameter reduction introduced a gradient of the quarter wave stack period along the length of the fiber. Therefore, the light guided within the fiber encountered slightly smaller dielectric layer thicknesses at each reflection, resulting in a progressive blueshift of the reflectance spectrum. As the reflectance spectrum shifts, longer wavelengths of the initial bandgap cease to be omnidirectionally reflected and exit through the cladding, which narrows the photonic bandgap. A narrow transmission bandwidth is particularly desirable in hollow waveguide mid-infrared sensing schemes, where broadband light is coupled to the fiber and the analyte vapor is introduced into the hollow core to measure infrared absorption. We carried out sensing simulations using the absorption spectrum of isopropyl alcohol vapor to demonstrate the importance of narrow bandgap fibers in chemical sensing applications.
Novel structural flexibility identification in narrow frequency bands
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, J; Moon, F L
2012-01-01
A ‘Sub-PolyMAX’ method is proposed in this paper not only for estimating modal parameters, but also for identifying structural flexibility by processing the impact test data in narrow frequency bands. The traditional PolyMAX method obtains denominator polynomial coefficients by minimizing the least square (LS) errors of frequency response function (FRF) estimates over the whole frequency range, but FRF peaks in different structural modes may have different levels of magnitude, which leads to the modal parameters identified for the modes with small FRF peaks being inaccurate. In contrast, the proposed Sub-PolyMAX method implements the LS solver in each subspace of the whole frequency range separately; thus the results identified from a narrow frequency band are not affected by FRF data in other frequency bands. In performing structural identification in narrow frequency bands, not in the whole frequency space, the proposed method has the following merits: (1) it produces accurate modal parameters, even for the modes with very small FRF peaks; (2) it significantly reduces computation cost by reducing the number of frequency lines and the model order in each LS implementation; (3) it accurately identifies structural flexibility from impact test data, from which structural deflection under any static load can be predicted. Numerical and laboratory examples are investigated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. (paper)
Joint Space Narrowing in Patients With Pisotriquetral Osteoarthritis.
Ten Berg, Paul W L; Heeg, Erik; Strackee, Simon D; Streekstra, Geert J
2017-09-01
Patients with suspected pisotriquetral osteoarthritis may show joint space narrowing. However, the extent of joint space narrowing and its deviation from the joint space width (JSW) in normal anatomy is unknown. In this pathoanatomic study, we therefore compared the JSW in the pisotriquetral joint between osteoarthritic patient wrists and healthy wrists. We reviewed preoperative computed tomography (CT) scans of 8 wrists of patients with ulnar-sided wrist pain who underwent a pisiformectomy with confirmed pisotriquetral osteoarthritis at surgery. We also reviewed CT scans of 20 normal wrists from healthy volunteers serving as control group. Three-dimensional CT models of the pisiform and triquetrum were obtained from both affected and normal wrists, after which the minimum JSW was calculated in an automated fashion. In the patient group, the median (interquartile range) of the minimum JSW was 0.1 mm (0.0-0.2), and in the control group, 0.8 mm (0.3-0.9) ( P = .007). We showed that the pisotriquetral joint space in osteoarthritic patient wrists was significantly narrowed compared with healthy wrists. These results suggest that JSW evaluation has a potential diagnostic value in the work-up of patients with suspected pisotriquetral osteoarthritis. This is an interesting area for future clinical research, especially because no gold standard for diagnosing pisotriquetral osteoarthritis has been established yet.
High prevalence of narrow angles among Filipino-American patients.
Seider, Michael I; Sáles, Christopher S; Lee, Roland Y; Agadzi, Anthony K; Porco, Travis C; Weinreb, Robert N; Lin, Shan C
2011-03-01
To determine the prevalence of gonioscopically narrow anterior chamber angles in a Filipino-American clinic population. The records of 122 consecutive, new, self-declared Filipino-American patients examined in a comprehensive ophthalmology clinic in Vallejo, California were reviewed retrospectively. After exclusion, 222 eyes from 112 patients remained for analysis. Data were collected for anterior chamber angle grade as determined by gonioscopy (Shaffer system), age, sex, manifest refraction (spherical equivalent), intraocular pressure, and cup-to-disk ratio. Data from both eyes of patients were included and modeled using standard linear mixed-effects regression. As a comparison, data were also collected from a group of 30 consecutive White patients from the same clinic. After exclusion, 50 eyes from 25 White patients remained for comparison. At least 1 eye of 24% of Filipino-American patients had a narrow anterior chamber angle (Shaffer grade ≤ 2). Filipino-American angle grade significantly decreased with increasingly hyperopic refraction (P=0.007) and larger cup-to-disk ratio (P=0.038). Filipino-American women had significantly decreased angle grades compared with men (P=0.028), but angle grade did not vary by intraocular pressure or age (all, P≥ 0.059). Narrow anterior chamber angles are highly prevalent in Filipino-American patients in our clinic population.
Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.
Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus
2014-02-01
The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.
Hedne, Mikael R.; Norman, Elisabeth; Metcalfe, Janet
2016-01-01
The focus of the current study is on intuitive feelings of insight during problem solving and the extent to which such feelings are predictive of successful problem solving. We report the results from an experiment (N = 51) that applied a procedure where the to-be-solved problems were 32 short (15 s) video recordings of magic tricks. The procedure included metacognitive ratings similar to the “warmth ratings” previously used by Metcalfe and colleagues, as well as confidence ratings. At regular intervals during problem solving, participants indicated the perceived closeness to the correct solution. Participants also indicated directly whether each problem was solved by insight or not. Problems that people claimed were solved by insight were characterized by higher accuracy and higher confidence than noninsight solutions. There was no difference between the two types of solution in warmth ratings, however. Confidence ratings were more strongly associated with solution accuracy for noninsight than insight trials. Moreover, for insight trials the participants were more likely to repeat their incorrect solutions on a subsequent recognition test. The results have implications for understanding people's metacognitive awareness of the cognitive processes involved in problem solving. They also have general implications for our understanding of how intuition and insight are related. PMID:27630598
Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.
Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve
2011-05-01
Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar
Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.
1995-01-01
This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in
A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.
Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia
2014-02-19
The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.
Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.
Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing
2016-01-01
Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.
Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jaylson Jair da Silveira
2015-06-01
Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.
Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiao-Qian Sun
Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.
Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.
Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M
2016-11-01
Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.
Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isabella Kasselstrand
2017-04-01
Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.
Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?
Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma
2016-09-01
The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.
2011-01-01
We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.
Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.
Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D
2015-12-01
Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.
Nurses' training and confidence on deep venous catheterization.
Liachopoulou, A P; Synodinou-Kamilou, E E; Deligiannidi, P G; Giannakopoulou, M; Birbas, K N
2008-01-01
The rough estimation of the education and the self-confidence of nurses, both students and professionals, regarding deep venous catheterization in adult patients, the evaluation of the change in self-confidence of one team of students who were trained with a simulator on deep venous catheterization and the correlation of their self-confidence with their performance recorded by the simulator. Seventy-six nurses and one hundred twenty-four undergraduate students participated in the study. Fourty-four University students took part in a two-day educational seminar and were trained on subclavian and femoral vein paracentesis with a simulator and an anatomical model. Three questionnaires were filled in by the participants: one from nurses, one from students of Technological institutions, while the University students filled in the previous questionnaire before their attendance of the seminar, and another questionnaire after having attended it. Impressive results in improving the participants' self-confidence were recorded. However, the weak correlation of their self-confidence with the score automatically provided by the simulator after each user's training obligates us to be particularly cautious about the ability of the users to repeat the action successfully in a clinical environment. Educational courses and simulators are useful educational tools that are likely to shorten but in no case can efface the early phase of the learning curve in clinical setting, substituting the clinical training of inexperienced users.
Interval logic. Proof theory and theorem proving
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Thomas Marthedal
2002-01-01
of a direction of an interval, and present a sound and complete Hilbert proof system for it. Because of its generality, SIL can conveniently act as a general formalism in which other interval logics can be encoded. We develop proof theory for SIL including both a sequent calculus system and a labelled natural...
Risk factors for QTc interval prolongation
Heemskerk, Charlotte P.M.; Pereboom, Marieke; van Stralen, Karlijn; Berger, Florine A.; van den Bemt, Patricia M.L.A.; Kuijper, Aaf F.M.; van der Hoeven, Ruud T M; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K.; Becker, Matthijs L
2018-01-01
Purpose: Prolongation of the QTc interval may result in Torsade de Pointes, a ventricular arrhythmia. Numerous risk factors for QTc interval prolongation have been described, including the use of certain drugs. In clinical practice, there is much debate about the management of the risks involved. In
Interval Forecast for Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, we propose a simple method for constructing interval forecast for smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. This interval forecast is based on bootstrapping the residual error of the estimated STAR model for each forecast horizon and computing various Akaike information criterion (AIC) function. This new ...
New interval forecast for stationary autoregressive models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, we proposed a new forecasting interval for stationary Autoregressive, AR(p) models using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) function. Ordinarily, the AIC function is used to determine the order of an AR(p) process. In this study however, AIC forecast interval compared favorably with the theoretical forecast ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maira S. Oliveira
2014-05-01
Full Text Available The electrocardiography (ECG QT interval is influenced by fluctuations in heart rate (HR what may lead to misinterpretation of its length. Considering that alterations in QT interval length reflect abnormalities of the ventricular repolarisation which predispose to occurrence of arrhythmias, this variable must be properly evaluated. The aim of this work is to determine which method of correcting the QT interval is the most appropriate for dogs regarding different ranges of normal HR (different breeds. Healthy adult dogs (n=130; German Shepherd, Boxer, Pit Bull Terrier, and Poodle were submitted to ECG examination and QT intervals were determined in triplicates from the bipolar limb II lead and corrected for the effects of HR through the application of three published formulae involving quadratic, cubic or linear regression. The mean corrected QT values (QTc obtained using the diverse formulae were significantly different (ρ<0.05, while those derived according to the equation QTcV = QT + 0.087(1- RR were the most consistent (linear regression. QTcV values were strongly correlated (r=0.83 with the QT interval and showed a coefficient of variation of 8.37% and a 95% confidence interval of 0.22-0.23 s. Owing to its simplicity and reliability, the QTcV was considered the most appropriate to be used for the correction of QT interval in dogs.
Expressing Intervals in Automated Service Negotiation
Clark, Kassidy P.; Warnier, Martijn; van Splunter, Sander; Brazier, Frances M. T.
During automated negotiation of services between autonomous agents, utility functions are used to evaluate the terms of negotiation. These terms often include intervals of values which are prone to misinterpretation. It is often unclear if an interval embodies a continuum of real numbers or a subset of natural numbers. Furthermore, it is often unclear if an agent is expected to choose only one value, multiple values, a sub-interval or even multiple sub-intervals. Additional semantics are needed to clarify these issues. Normally, these semantics are stored in a domain ontology. However, ontologies are typically domain specific and static in nature. For dynamic environments, in which autonomous agents negotiate resources whose attributes and relationships change rapidly, semantics should be made explicit in the service negotiation. This paper identifies issues that are prone to misinterpretation and proposes a notation for expressing intervals. This notation is illustrated using an example in WS-Agreement.
Experimental Results on the Level Crossing Intervals of the Phase of Sine Wave Plus Noise
Youssef, Neji; Munakata, Tsutomu; Mimaki, Tadashi
1993-03-01
Experimental study was made on the level crossing intervals of a phase process of a sine wave plus narrow-band Gaussian noise. Since successive level crossings of phase do not necessarily occur alternately in the upward and downward direction due to the phase jump beyond 2π, the usual definitions of the probability densities of the level crossing intervals for continuous random processes are not applicable in the case of the phase process. Therefore, the probability densities of level crossing intervals of phase process are newly defined. Measurements of these densities were performed for noise having lowpass spectra of Gaussian and 7th order Butterworth types. Results are given for various values of the signal-to-noise power ratio and of the crossing level, and compared with corresponding approximation developed under the assumption of quasi-independence. The validity of the assumption depends on the spectrum shape of the noise.