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Sample records for nao forecast nao

  1. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchezgomez, E.; Ortizbevia, M.

    2003-04-01

    We present here seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) issued from ocean predictors with an empirical procedure. The Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) of the cross-correlation matrix between predictor and predictand fields at the lag used for the forecast lead is at the core of the empirical model. The main predictor field are sea surface temperature anomalies, although sea ice cover anomalies are also used. Forecasts are issued in probabilistic form. The model is an improvement over a previous version (1), where Sea Level Pressure Anomalies were first forecast, and the NAO Index built from this forecast field. Both correlation skill between forecast and observed field, and number of forecasts that hit the correct NAO sign, are used to assess the forecast performance , usually above those values found in the case of forecasts issued assuming persistence. For certain seasons and/or leads, values of the skill are above the .7 usefulness treshold. References (1) SanchezGomez, E. and Ortiz Bevia M., 2002, Estimacion de la evolucion pluviometrica de la Espana Seca atendiendo a diversos pronosticos empiricos de la NAO, in 'El Agua y el Clima', Publicaciones de la AEC, Serie A, N 3, pp 63-73, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

  2. Estrategia Naos :

    OpenAIRE

    Pérez Sánchez, Ana Belén

    2015-01-01

    En el año 2005 se puso en marcha la Estrategia NAOS ( Estrategia para la Nutrición, Actividad Física y Prevención de la Obesidad) desde el Ministerio de Sanidad y consumo, a través de la Agencia Española de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutrición, con el objetivo de sensibilizar a la población del problema que la obesidad representa para la salud y de impulsar todas las iniciativas que contribuyan a lograr que los ciudadanos, especialmente niños y jóvenes, adopten hábitos de v...

  3. Thua nao: Thai fermented soybean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekachai Chukeatirote

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Thua nao is a traditionally fermented food in Thailand. It is manufactured by fermenting cooked soybeans with naturally occurring microbes. There are also similar products including natto in Japan, kinema in India, and chongkukjang in Korea. In Thailand, thua nao is widely consumed, especially by people in the northern part. The product is generally regarded as a protein supplement and widely used as a condiment. Two major types of thua nao can be distinguished; fresh and dried forms. To date, scientific information on thua nao is scarce and thus this article aims to document the updated knowledge of Thai thua nao.

  4. Robot NAO cantante

    OpenAIRE

    Caballero Pamos, Adrián

    2016-01-01

    En los últimos años la robótica ha experimentado un crecimiento exponencial incorporando todo tipo de funcionalidades. Introducir el mundo musical en los robots es una de ellas. En este Trabajo Fin de Grado se presenta el desarrollo de un sistema que permite al robot NAO leer una partitura, analizarla y reproducirla a modo de canto. La finalidad del trabajo es que el robot actúe como un intérprete frente a una partitura musical tal y como lo haría un humano. Debe ser capaz de interpretar cual...

  5. Technological fantasies of Nao

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Stina Marie Hasse; Tafdrup, Oliver Alexander

    2017-01-01

    This article will through a ‘what-if’ scenario involving the humanoid robot, Nao, as a museum guide, discuss the potential benefits of theorizing social robots through a perspective grounded in critical design and postphenomenology. Within Science and Technology-studies (STS) postphenomenology has...... been the ‘go-to’ theory when discussing the philosophical aspects of human-technology relations. Postphenomenology directly addresses how humans on a phenomenological level relate to robots through an ‘alterity-relation’ that establishes the robot as a ‘quasi-other’. A methodological discussion of how...... to conduct empirical postphenomenological research into robotics, has, however, not been thoroughly unfolded, although the question of a general postphenomenological methodology has been touched upon. This article provides a contribution to the debate on how to enquire into human-robot relations...

  6. Radiological findings in NAO syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Otaibi, Leftan; Hugosson, Claes O. [Department of Radiology, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia); Al-Mayouf, Sulalman M.; Majeed, Mahmoud; Al-Eid, Wea' am; Bahabri, Sultan [Department of Paediatrics, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)

    2002-07-01

    Background: Diseases exhibiting osteolysis in children are rare hereditary conditions. Several types have been recognised with different clinical manifestations. One type includes subcutaneous nodules, arthropathy and osteolysis and has been termed NAO syndrome. Previous radiological reports have described the affected bones, usually the carpal and tarsal regions, but a detailed analysis of the radiological findings of both the axial as well as the appendicular skeleton has not been reported. Objectives: To describe the radiological findings in a large group of children with an autosomal recessive disease characterized by nodules, familial arthropathy and osteolysis. Materials and methods: The study comprises 14 patients from 9 families and all patients had the triad of nodulosis, arthropathy and osteolysis (NAO). Results: The most common radiological manifestations were osteopenia, undertubulation of long bones, arthritic changes, sclerotic sutures of the calvaria, osteolysis and muscle contractures. Other common findings were squared vertebrae, broad medial clavicles and brachycephaly. Progress of disease was documented in more than half of the patients. Conclusions: Our study is the first report of the detailed radiological findings of NAO syndrome. In NAO syndrome, both the axial and appendicular skeleton are involved (orig.)

  7. Radiological findings in NAO syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Otaibi, Leftan; Hugosson, Claes O.; Al-Mayouf, Sulalman M.; Majeed, Mahmoud; Al-Eid, Wea'am; Bahabri, Sultan

    2002-01-01

    Background: Diseases exhibiting osteolysis in children are rare hereditary conditions. Several types have been recognised with different clinical manifestations. One type includes subcutaneous nodules, arthropathy and osteolysis and has been termed NAO syndrome. Previous radiological reports have described the affected bones, usually the carpal and tarsal regions, but a detailed analysis of the radiological findings of both the axial as well as the appendicular skeleton has not been reported. Objectives: To describe the radiological findings in a large group of children with an autosomal recessive disease characterized by nodules, familial arthropathy and osteolysis. Materials and methods: The study comprises 14 patients from 9 families and all patients had the triad of nodulosis, arthropathy and osteolysis (NAO). Results: The most common radiological manifestations were osteopenia, undertubulation of long bones, arthritic changes, sclerotic sutures of the calvaria, osteolysis and muscle contractures. Other common findings were squared vertebrae, broad medial clavicles and brachycephaly. Progress of disease was documented in more than half of the patients. Conclusions: Our study is the first report of the detailed radiological findings of NAO syndrome. In NAO syndrome, both the axial and appendicular skeleton are involved (orig.)

  8. Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokorná, Lucie; Huth, Radan

    2015-02-01

    We analyze the sensitivity of the effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on surface temperature and precipitation in Europe to the definition of the NAO index. Seven different NAO indices are examined: two based on station sea level pressure (SLP) data, two based on action centers, and three based on correlation/covariance structures described by principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis is based on monthly mean data; winter and summer seasons are analyzed separately. Temporal correlations between indices are weaker in summer than in winter for most pairs of indices. In particular, low correlations are found between station indices on the one hand and PCA-based indices on the other hand. The NAO effects are quantified by correlations between the indices and station data in Europe. Effects of the NAO on precipitation amount and wet day probability are very similar, while NAO effects on maximum temperature are stronger than those on minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NAO effects on both surface temperature and precipitation to the choice of the NAO index is considerably higher in summer. Correlations differ among the NAO indices not only in their magnitude but in some regions in summer also in their sign. These effects can be explained by a northward shift of the whole NAO pattern and its action centers in summer, away from the sites on which the station indices are based, and by a decoupling of the Azores high and Icelandic low from the centers of high covariability, identified by PCA. Considerable differences in SLP anomaly patterns associated to individual NAO indices also contribute to different responses in temperature and precipitation. Finally, we formulate two recommendations to future analyses of NAO effects on surface climate: use several different NAO indices instead of a single one, and for summer do not use station indices because they do not represent the circulation variability related to the NAO.

  9. Kinematic Model of NAO Humanoid Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš D. Jovanović

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents synthesis of kinematic model of NAO humanoid robot of Aldebaran Robotics. NAO humanoid robot has complex kinematic structure with 25 active degrees of freedom (DOF. Humanoid system is formed through 5 mutually depended kinematic chains. After that we applied standard aspects of kinematic chains synthesis and Denavit-Hartenberg parameters of each of 5 chains of robotic structure were introduced. Also, mutual relationships between chains were described, as well as their physical and structural dependence. Generated kinematic model will be the starting point for further dynamical modeling of NAO humanoid robot and motion synthesis on actual platform.

  10. On the Stability of NaO2 in Na-O2 Batteries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chenjuan; Carboni, Marco; Brant, William R; Pan, Ruijun; Hedman, Jonas; Zhu, Jiefang; Gustafsson, Torbjörn; Younesi, Reza

    2018-04-25

    Na-O 2 batteries are regarded as promising candidates for energy storage. They have higher energy efficiency, rate capability, and chemical reversibility than Li-O 2 batteries; in addition, sodium is cheaper and more abundant compared to lithium. However, inconsistent observations and instability of discharge products have inhibited the understanding of the working mechanism of this technology. In this work, we have investigated a number of factors that influence the stability of the discharge products. By means of in operando powder X-ray diffraction study, the influence of oxygen, sodium anode, salt, solvent, and carbon cathode were investigated. The Na metal anode and an ether-based solvent are the main factors that lead to the instability and decomposition of NaO 2 in the cell environment. This fundamental insight brings new information on the working mechanism of Na-O 2 batteries.

  11. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

    2017-03-21

    A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

  12. High-Performance Na-O2 Batteries Enabled by Oriented NaO2 Nanowires as Discharge Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khajehbashi, S Mohammad B; Xu, Lin; Zhang, Guobin; Tan, Shuangshuang; Zhao, Yan; Wang, Lai-Sen; Li, Jiantao; Luo, Wen; Peng, Dong-Liang; Mai, Liqiang

    2018-06-13

    Na-O 2 batteries are emerging rechargeable batteries due to their high theoretical energy density and abundant resources, but they suffer from sluggish kinetics due to the formation of large-size discharge products with cubic or irregular particle shapes. Here, we report the unique growth of discharge products of NaO 2 nanowires inside Na-O 2 batteries that significantly boosts the performance of Na-O 2 batteries. For this purpose, a high-spin Co 3 O 4 electrocatalyst was synthesized via the high-temperature oxidation of pure cobalt nanoparticles in an external magnetic field. The discharge products of NaO 2 nanowires are 10-20 nm in diameter and ∼10 μm in length, characteristics that provide facile pathways for electron and ion transfer. With these nanowires, Na-O 2 batteries have surpassed 400 cycles with a fixed capacity of 1000 mA h g -1 , an ultra-low over-potential of ∼60 mV during charging, and near-zero over-potential during discharging. This strategy not only provides a unique way to control the morphology of discharge products to achieve high-performance Na-O 2 batteries but also opens up the opportunity to explore growing nanowires in novel conditions.

  13. Sharpest Ever VLT Images at NAOS-CONICA "First Light"

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-12-01

    Very Promising Start-Up of New Adaptive Optics Instrument at Paranal Summary A team of astronomers and engineers from French and German research institutes and ESO at the Paranal Observatory is celebrating the successful accomplishment of "First Light" for the NAOS-CONICA Adaptive Optics facility . With this event, another important milestone for the Very Large Telescope (VLT) project has been passed. Normally, the achievable image sharpness of a ground-based telescope is limited by the effect of atmospheric turbulence. However, with the Adaptive Optics (AO) technique, this drawback can be overcome and the telescope produces images that are at the theoretical limit, i.e., as sharp as if it were in space . Adaptive Optics works by means of a computer-controlled, flexible mirror that counteracts the image distortion induced by atmospheric turbulence in real time. The larger the main mirror of the telescope is, and the shorter the wavelength of the observed light, the sharper will be the images recorded. During a preceding four-week period of hard and concentrated work, the expert team assembled and installed this major astronomical instrument at the 8.2-m VLT YEPUN Unit Telescope (UT4). On November 25, 2001, following careful adjustments of this complex apparatus, a steady stream of photons from a southern star bounced off the computer-controlled deformable mirror inside NAOS and proceeded to form in CONICA the sharpest image produced so far by one of the VLT telescopes. With a core angular diameter of only 0.07 arcsec, this image is near the theoretical limit possible for a telescope of this size and at the infrared wavelength used for this demonstration (the K-band at 2.2 µm). Subsequent tests reached the spectacular performance of 0.04 arcsec in the J-band (wavelength 1.2 µm). "I am proud of this impressive achievement", says ESO Director General Catherine Cesarsky. "It shows the true potential of European science and technology and it provides a fine

  14. Communication Framework For the Mionix Naos QG Mouse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff-Jensen, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    The Mionix Naos QG mouse has multiple sensors integrated. It can record all the metrics native to mice: being scroll, clicks and mouse movements. Moreover, this mouse has heart rate (HR) and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) sensors embedded. Through Mionics API [1] WebSocket can be used to access all...... or be recorded. Another Unity implementation have been developed as well. This was directly connected to the WebSocket, and has the same properties as the first Unity development. Since two nearly identical implementations were made, the quality of their recordings and data communication were tested. Based...

  15. Hierarchical Porous Carbon Spheres for High-Performance Na-O2 Batteries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Bing; Kretschmer, Katja; Xie, Xiuqiang; Munroe, Paul; Peng, Zhangquan; Wang, Guoxiu

    2017-12-01

    As a new family member of room-temperature aprotic metal-O 2 batteries, Na-O 2 batteries, are attracting growing attention because of their relatively high theoretical specific energy and particularly their uncompromised round-trip efficiency. Here, a hierarchical porous carbon sphere (PCS) electrode that has outstanding properties to realize Na-O 2 batteries with excellent electrochemical performances is reported. The controlled porosity of the PCS electrode, with macropores formed between PCSs and nanopores inside each PCS, enables effective formation/decomposition of NaO 2 by facilitating the electrolyte impregnation and oxygen diffusion to the inner part of the oxygen electrode. In addition, the discharge product of NaO 2 is deposited on the surface of individual PCSs with an unusual conformal film-like morphology, which can be more easily decomposed than the commonly observed microsized NaO 2 cubes in Na-O 2 batteries. A combination of coulometry, X-ray diffraction, and in situ differential electrochemical mass spectrometry provides compelling evidence that the operation of the PCS-based Na-O 2 battery is underpinned by the formation and decomposition of NaO 2 . This work demonstrates that employing nanostructured carbon materials to control the porosity, pore-size distribution of the oxygen electrodes, and the morphology of the discharged NaO 2 is a promising strategy to develop high-performance Na-O 2 batteries. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Characterization of Bacillus subtilis strains in Thua nao, a traditional fermented soybean food in northern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inatsu, Y; Nakamura, N; Yuriko, Y; Fushimi, T; Watanasiritum, L; Kawamoto, S

    2006-09-01

    To clarify the diversity of Bacillus subtilis strains in Thua nao that produce high concentrations of products useful in food manufacturing and in health-promoting compounds. Production of amylase, protease, subtilisin NAT (nattokinase), and gamma-polyglutamic acid (PGA) by the Bacillus subtilis strains in Thua nao was measured. Productivity of protease NAT by these strains tended to be higher than by Japanese commercial natto-producing strains. Molecular diversity of isolated strains was analysed via randomly amplified polymorphic DNA-PCR fingerprinting. The strains were divided into 19 types, including a type with the same pattern as a Japanese natto-producing strain. B. subtilis strains that could be a resource for effective production of protease, amylase, subtilisin NAT, or PGA were evident in Thua nao produced in various regions in northern Thailand. This study clearly demonstrated the value of Thua nao as a potential resource of food-processing enzymes and health-promoting compounds.

  17. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a...

  18. Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Woollings, Tim [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO{sub 2}, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO{sub 2}. Results indicate that SST and CO{sub 2} change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO{sub 2} change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO{sub 2} and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the

  19. Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the 20th century NAO-winter precipitation relationship in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comas-Bru, Laia; McDermott, Frank

    2013-04-01

    Much of the 20th century multi-decadal variability in the NAO-winter precipitation relationship over the N. Atlantic / European sector can be ascribed to the combined effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and either the East Atlantic pattern (EA) or the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The NAO, EA and SCA indices employed here are defined as the three leading vectors of the cross-correlation matrix calculated from monthly sea-level pressure anomalies for 138 complete winters from the 20CRv2 dataset (Compo et al., 2011). Winter precipitation data over Europe for the entire 20th century is derived from the high resolution CRU-TS3.1 climate dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005). Here we document for the first time, that different NAO/EA and NAO/SCA combinations systematically influence winter precipitation conditions in Europe as a consequence of NAO dipole migrations. We find that the zero-correlated line of the NAO-winter precipitation relationship migrates southwards when the EA is in the opposite phase to the NAO. This can be related to a south-westwards migration of the NAO dipole under these conditions, as shown by teleconnectivity maps. Similarly, a clockwise movement of the NAO-winter climate correlated areas occurs when the phase of the SCA is opposite to that of the NAO, reflecting a clockwise movement of the NAO dipole under these conditions. An important implication of these migrations is that they influence the spatial and temporal stationarity of climate-NAO relationships. As a result, the link between winter precipitation patterns and the NAO is not straightforward in some regions such as the southern UK, Ireland and France. For instance, much of the inter-annual variability in the N-S winter precipitation gradient in the UK, originally attributed to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of the NAO, reflects the migration of the NAO dipole, linked to linear combinations of the NAO and the EA. Our results indicate that when the N-S winter

  20. Effect of Qing Nao tablet on blood stasis model of mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xuejun; Hao, Shaojun; Wang, Hongyu; Liu, Xiaobin; Xie, Guoqi; Li, Wenjun; Zhang, Zhengchen

    2018-04-01

    To investigate the effect of Qing Nao tablet on mouse model of blood stasis syndrome, 60 mice, male and female, were randomly divided into 6 groups, were fed with large, small doses of Qing Nao tablet suspension, Naoluotong saline suspension and the same volume (group 2, 0.1ml/10g), administer 1 times daily, orally for 15 days. Intragastric administration for first days, in addition to the 1 group saline group every day in the hind leg intramuscular saline, the other 5 groups each rat day hind leg muscle injection of dexamethasone 0.8mg/kg intramuscular injection every day, 1 times, 15 days. 1 hour continuous intramuscular injection and intramuscular drug perfusion on the sixteenth day after mice. The eyeball blood, heparin after whole blood viscosity test. Compared with the control group, model group, high and low shear viscosity were significantly increased (Pgroup, high dose group and Qing Nao tablet Naoluotong group can significantly reduce the viscosity at high shear and (Pgroup can significantly reduce high shear and shear viscosity (Pgroup can significantly reduce the low shear viscosity (Pgroup can significantly reduce the low shear viscosity (Pgroup were lower high cut, low shear viscosity and trend The potential (P>0.05). The Qing Nao tablet has a good effect on the model of blood stasis in mice.

  1. Region of eye contact of humanoid Nao robot is similar to that of a human

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuijpers, R.H.; Pol, van der D.; Herrmann, G.; Pearson, M.J.; Lenz, A.; Bremner, P.; Spiers, A.; Leonards, U.

    2013-01-01

    Eye contact is an important social cue in human-human interaction, but it is unclear how easily it carries over to humanoid robots. In this study we investigated whether the tolerance of making eye contact is similar for the Nao robot as compared to human lookers. We measured the region of eye

  2. Initial phases of design-based research into the educational potentials of NAO-robots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard, Gunver; Bertel, Lykke Brogaard

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we describe our initial research, using the humanoid robot NAO in primary and secondary schools. How does a programmable humanoid enrich teaching and how do we prepare the teachers? Ten school classes are using the robot for creative programming. So far we have experienced...... that the robot enriches the learning processes by combining the auditory, visual and kinaesthetic modalities....

  3. Influences of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on warm season temperature and crop yields in the southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myoung, B.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Kafatos, M.

    2013-12-01

    Despite advancements in agricultural technology, agricultural productivity remains vulnerable to extreme meteorological conditions. This study has found significant impacts of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme temperatures and in turn on crop yields in the Southwestern United States (SW US) region. Analyses of multi-year data of observed temperatures and simulated maize yields reveal that NAO affects positively the daily temperature maxima and minima in the green-up periods (March-June) and that the response of maize yields to NAO varies according to the climatological mean temperatures. In warmer regions, a combination of above-normal NAO in the planting periods and below-normal NAO in the growing periods is favorable for high maize yields by reducing extremely cold days during the planting periods and extremely hot days in the later periods, respectively. In colder regions, continuously above-normal NAO conditions favor higher yields via above normal thermal conditions. Results in this study suggest that NAO predictions can benefit agricultural planning in SW US.

  4. Correlation between sea surface temperature and wind speed in Greenland Sea and their relationships with NAO variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Qu

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO is one of the major causes of many recent changes in the Arctic Ocean. Generally, it is related to wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST, and sea ice cover. In this study, we analyzed the distributions of and correlations between SST, wind speed, NAO, and sea ice cover from 2003 to 2009 in the Greenland Sea at 10°W to 10°E, 65°N to 80°N. SST reached its peak in July, while wind speed reached its minimum in July. Seasonal variability of SST and wind speed was different for different regions. SST and wind speed mainly had negative correlations. Detailed correlation research was focused on the 75°N to 80°N band. Regression analysis shows that in this band, the variation of SST lagged three months behind that of wind speed. Ice cover and NAO had a positive correlation, and the correlation coefficient between ice cover and NAO in the year 2007 was 0.61. SST and NAO also had a positive correlation, and SST influenced NAO one month in advance. The correlation coefficients between SST and NAO reached 0.944 for the year 2005, 0.7 for the year 2008, and 0.74 for the year 2009 after shifting SST one month later. NAO also had a positive correlation with wind speed, and it also influenced wind speed one month in advance. The correlation coefficients between NAO and wind speed reached 0.783, 0.813, and 0.818 for the years 2004, 2005, and 2008, respectively, after shifting wind speed one month earlier.

  5. New Insights into the Instability of Discharge Products in Na-O2 Batteries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landa-Medrano, Imanol; Pinedo, Ricardo; Bi, Xuanxuan; Ruiz de Larramendi, Idoia; Lezama, Luis; Janek, Jürgen; Amine, Khalil; Lu, Jun; Rojo, Teófilo

    2016-08-10

    Sodium-oxygen batteries currently stimulate extensive research due to their high theoretical energy density and improved operational stability when compared to lithium-oxygen batteries. Cell stability, however, needs to be demonstrated also under resting conditions before future implementation of these batteries. In this work we analyze the effect of resting periods on the stability of the sodium superoxide (NaO2) discharge product. The instability of NaO2 in the cell environment is demonstrated leading to the evolution of oxygen during the resting period and the decrease of the cell efficiency. In addition, migration of the superoxide anion (O2(-)) in the electrolyte is observed and demonstrated to be an important factor affecting Coulombic efficiency.

  6. Design and Implementation of Autonomous Stair Climbing with Nao Humanoid Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    With the development of humanoid robots, autonomous stair climbing is an important capability. Humanoid robots will play an important role in helping people tackle some basic problems in the future. The main contribution of this thesis is that the NAO humanoid robot can climb the spiral staircase autonomously. In the vision module, the algorithm of image filtering and detecting the contours of the stair contributes to calculating the location of the stairs accurately. Additionally, the st...

  7. A politica nuclear da Argentina e do Brasil : Desenvolvimento, nao-proliferacao e democratizacao

    OpenAIRE

    澤田, 眞治

    1994-01-01

    Este artigo e uma tentativa de analisar o desenvolvimento da politica da energia nuclear da Argentina e do Brasil, com relacao ao regime internacional de naoproliferacao das armas nucleares. Dado o fato de que ambos os paises da America do Sul recusaram a assinatura do TNP(Tratad0 sobre Nao-Proliferacao das Armas Nucleares), em razao do carater discriminatorio de inspecao, a Argentina e o Brasil estavam sendo considerado os estados duvidossos que potencialmente teriam a bomba atomica. A despe...

  8. European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, Ana; Janssens, Ivan A.; Gouveia, Célia M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric; Peñuelas, Josep; Rödenbeck, Christian; Piao, Shilong; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Running, Steven W.

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO–EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models. PMID:26777730

  9. The influences of the AMO and NAO on an Iberian alpine lake during the Late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Armand; Leira, Manel; Trigo, Ricardo; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Carballeira, Rafael; Sáez, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    High mountain lakes, usually oligotrophic, in the Iberian Peninsula are particularly sensitive to the influence of North Atlantic large-scale modes of climate variability due to their geographical position and the reduced direct anthropic disturbances. In this context, Serra da Estrela (Portugal), in the westernmost of the Sistema Central Range, constitutes a physical barrier to air masses coming from the Atlantic Ocean. However, long-term climate reconstructions have not yet been conducted. We present a climate reconstruction in terms of precipitation and temperature changes of this setting based on facies analysis, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter and a preliminary study of diatom assemblages from the sedimentary record of Lake Peixão (1677 m a.s.l.; Serra da Estrela) for the last ca. 3500 years. A multivariate statistical analysis has been performed to recognize the main environmental factors controlling the lake sedimentation. Our results reveal that two main processes explain 70% of the total variance, with PC1 (accumulation of siliciclastic material vs organic matter), and PC2 (variations in lacustrine productivity, related to nutrient inputs from the catchment), explaining 53% and 17% respectively. In mountain lakes, siliciclastic and/or external organic matter accumulation tend to be governed by the snowmelt which, in turn, are frequently controlled by winter and spring temperatures. On the other hand, lake productivity, usually limited by phosphorus and nitrogen, is dependent of internal recycling and/or external inputs, mainly by catchment leaching (climatically driven by summer precipitation) and atmospheric deposition (anthropic influence). The results from Lake Peixão have been compared to other Western Iberia and Northeastern Atlantic records, as well as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Thus, a tentative Late Holocene climate

  10. Understanding the NAO from Iberian and UK paleoclimate records. The NAOSIPUK project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Alix, Antonio; Toney, Jaime L.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Slaymark, Charlotte; José Ramos-Román, Maria; Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Anderson, R. Scott

    2017-04-01

    The main goal of the NAOSIPUK project was to understand the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the Holocene, because the NAO is one major climate mode influencing climate patterns across Europe, and therefore, economy and society (Hurrell, 1995). We analysed several sedimentary records in two regions with opposing NAO responses. Our sedimentary surface survey from numerous lakes and bogs, led to further investigation of four records in the southern Iberian Peninsula and three in the central/northern UK. Past environments of the different sites were analysed using pollen and charcoal analysis, organic and inorganic geochemistry analyses, and sedimentary and geophysical surveys were performed. This work compares general environmental trends in both regions as deduced from the organic matter from bulk sediment to get an idea of the organic matter source, as well as specific organic compounds extracted from the sediment, such as leaf waxes (n-alkanes), algae-related compounds (diols and alkenones), and bacteria-related compounds (hopanes), to specify the sources of the organic matter, environmental temperature ranges, as well as hydrological changes. Our preliminary results show that the palaeoenvironmental indices developed from n-alkanes agree with the variations deduced from the carbon and nitrogen atomic ratios, as well as the carbon isotopic composition from bulk sediments in southern Iberia records. Interestingly, these indices show that some locations display opposite trends from one another, and are used to distinguish regional versus local effects of climate change, human impacts, and aeolian dust inputs. During the late Holocene solar forcing and NAO fluctuations are the main drivers of the environmental evolution in most of the Iberian and UK sites. However, we do detect the influence of the NAO in the temperatures oscillations of the studied sites in southern Iberia. This influence is much more important in the north/central UK sites. The regional

  11. Revisiting Caveiro Lake sediment record: the Holocene NAO and AMO impact on Pico Island (Azores archipelago)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, A.; Giralt, S.; Raposeiro, P. M.; Gonçalves, V. M.; Pueyo, J. J.; Trigo, R. M.; Bao, R.; Sáez, A.

    2017-12-01

    Northern Hemisphere climate is partly conditioned by a number of atmospheric and oceanic patterns which occur in the North Atlantic sector. The favourable location of the Azores Archipelago (37°-40° N, 25°-31° W) results in a privileged place to generate high-resolution Holocene climatic proxy data that can contribute to deep our understanding on the evolution of these atmospheric and oceanic patterns. In the frame of three research projects, namely PALEONAO (CGL2010-15767), RAPIDNAO (CGL2013-40608-R) and PALEOMODES (CGL2016-75281-C2), high-resolution proxy-based reconstructions from Azores Archipelago have recently shown a combined impact of atmospheric and oceanic patterns at multiannual and decadal time-scales (Rubio-Inglés et al. 2016; Hernández et al. 2017). However, the long-term evolution coupling/uncoupling of these patterns is not well-determined yet. Here, we present a new high-resolution climate reconstruction based on the Caveiro Lake sedimentary sequence in order to fill this gap. Previously, Björck et al. (2006) studied a section of this sequence (the uppermost 4.6 m covering last 6 Ka cal BP) concluding that changes in the thermohaline circulation and the SST were the main drivers in the long-term precipitation variability, whereas the NAO impact was the main atmospheric driver of short-term precipitation changes. However, they only distinguished the NAO impact for the last 600 years owing to the low resolution of the study for the lower portion of the core. The new studied sequence (8.40 m long, 8.2 Ka cal BP) has been analysed at decadal-to centennial time-scale resolution for X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning and elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter. The statistical multivariate analysis of the data highlights the main drivers triggering the sedimentary infill of the lake would be the NAO and AMO by controlling the lacustrine productivity via nutrients input. This new high

  12. Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones and relationship with NAO and jet intensity based on the IMILAST cyclone database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Sven; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Economou, Theodoros; Stephenson, David B.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Shaffrey, Len C.

    2017-04-01

    Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area, particularly during wintertime. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, such series (clusters) of storms may cause large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. Based on winter (DJF) cyclone counts from the IMILAST cyclone database, we explore the representation of serial clustering in the ERA-Interim period and its relationship with the NAO-phase and jet intensity. With this aim, clustering is estimated by the dispersion of winter (DJF) cyclone passages for each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods, although the exact location and the dispersion magnitude may vary. The relationship between clustering and (i) the NAO-phase and (ii) jet intensity over the North Atlantic is statistically evaluated. Results show that the NAO-index and the jet intensity show a strong contribution to clustering, even though some spread is found between methods. We conclude that the general features of clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO and jet intensity on cyclone dispersion.

  13. The NAO Influence on the Early to Mid-Holocene North Atlantic Coastal Upwelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, A.; Cachão, M.; Sousa, P.; Trigo, R. M.; Freitas, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal upwelling regions yield some of the oceanic most productive ecosystems, being crucial for the worldwide social and economic development. Most upwelling systems, emerging cold nutrient-rich deep waters, are located in the eastern boundaries of the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and are driven by meridional wind fields parallel to the coastal shore. These winds are associated with the subsiding branch of the large-scale Anticyclonic high pressure systems that dominate the subtropical ocean basins, and therefore can be displaced or intensified within the context of past and future climate changes. However, the role of the current global warming influencing the coastal upwelling is, as yet, unclear. Therefore it is essential to derive a long-term perspective, beyond the era of instrumental measurements, to detect similar warm periods in the past that have triggered changes in the upwelling patterns. In this work, the upwelling dynamics in the Iberian North Atlantic margin during the early and mid-Holocene is reconstructed, using calcareous nannofossils from a decadally resolved estuarine sediment core located in southwestern Portugal. Results suggest that the coastal dynamics reflects changes in winds direction likely related to shifts in the NAO-like conditions. Furthermore, the reconstructed centennial-scale variations in the upwelling are synchronous with changes in solar irradiance, a major external forcing factor of the climate system that is known to exert influence in atmospheric circulation patterns. In addition, these proxy-based data interpretations are in agreement with wind field and solar irradiance simulation modelling for the mid-Holocene. Therefore, the conclusion that the solar activity via the NAO modulation controlled the North Atlantic upwelling of western Iberia during the early and mid-Holocene at decadal to centennial timescales can be derived. The financial support for attending this meeting was possible through FCT project UID/GEO/50019

  14. Late Holocene forest dynamics in the Gulf of Gaeta (central Mediterranean) in relation to NAO variability and human impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Rita, Federico; Lirer, Fabrizio; Bonomo, Sergio; Cascella, Antonio; Ferraro, Luciana; Florindo, Fabio; Insinga, Donatella Domenica; Lurcock, Pontus Conrad; Margaritelli, Giulia; Petrosino, Paola; Rettori, Roberto; Vallefuoco, Mattia; Magri, Donatella

    2018-01-01

    A new high-resolution pollen record, spanning the last five millennia, is presented from the Gulf of Gaeta (Tyrrhenian Sea, central Italy), with the aim of verifying if any vegetation change occurred in the central Mediterranean region in relation to specific well-known global and/or regional climate events, including the 4.2 ka event, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and to detect possible vegetation changes related to still under-investigated climate signals, for example the so-called "Bond 2" cold event around 2.8 ka BP. The vegetation dynamics of the Gaeta record shows a recurrent pattern of forest increase and decline punctuating the mid- and late Holocene. When the timing of these patterns is compared with the climate proxy data available from the same core (planktonic foraminifera assemblages and oxygen stable isotope record) and with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index, it clearly appears that the main driver for the forest fluctuations is climate, which may even overshadow the effects of human activity. We have found a clear correspondence between phases with negative NAO index and forest declines. In particular, around 4200 cal BP, a drop in AP (Arboreal Pollen) confirms the clearance recorded in many sites in Italy south of 43°N. Around 2800 cal BP, a vegetation change towards open conditions is found at a time when the NAO index clearly shows negative values. Between 800 and 1000 AD, a remarkable forest decline, coeval with a decrease in the frequencies of both Castanea and Olea, matches a shift in the oxygen isotope record towards positive values, indicating cooler temperatures, and a negative NAO. Between 1400-1850 AD, in the time period chronologically corresponding to the LIA (Little Ice Age), the Gaeta record shows a clear decline of the forest cover, particularly evident after 1550 AD, once again in correspondence with negative NAO index.

  15. Pharmacokinetics and efficiency of brain targeting of ginsenosides Rg1 and Rb1 given as Nao-Qing microemulsion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Shu, Ya-Jun; Cheng, Jia-Yin; Liang, Run-Cheng; Dian, Shao-Na; Lv, Xiao-Xun; Yang, Meng-Qi; Huang, Shu-Ling; Chen, Gang; Yang, Fan

    2015-02-01

    Nao-Qing solution has been shown to be clinically effective in the treatment of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The purpose of this study was to improve the pharmacokinetics and brain uptake of Nao-Qing, administered as an oil-in-water microemulsion. Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were given Nao-Qing microemulsion by intranasal or intragastric routes. Samples of blood, brain, heart, liver, lung and kidney were collected at pre-determined time intervals, and the contents of ginsenosides Rg1 and Rb1 (active ingredients of the Nao-Qing microemulsion) were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The results showed that contents of ginsenosides Rg1 and Rb1 in Nao-Qing microemulsion was 8475.13 ± 54.61 μg/ml and 6633.42 ± 527.27 μg/ml, respectively, and that the particle size, pH and viscosity of the microemulsion were 19.9 ± 5.07 nm, 6.1 and 3.056 × 10(-3 )Pas, respectively. Absorption of ginsenoside Rg1 was higher than that of ginsenoside Rb1, which was barely detectable after intragastric administration; furthermore, the concentration of ginsenoside Rg1 in blood and other tissues at each time point was lower for intragastric than for intranasal administration. Compared with intragastric administration, intranasal administration resulted in a shorter tmax (0.08 versus 1 h), a higher Cmax (16.65 versus 11.29 μg/ml), and a higher area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) (592.91 versus 101.70 μgċh/ml) in the brain. The relative rates of uptake (Re) and the ratio of peak concentration (Ce) in the brain were 126.31% and 147.48% for ginsenoside Rg1, respectively. These data illustrate that intranasal administration can promote the absorption of drugs in Nao-Qing microemulsion and achieve fast effect.

  16. The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Recent Greenland Surface Mass Loss and Mass Partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedesco, M.; Alexander, P.; Porter, D. F.; Fettweis, X.; Luthcke, S. B.; Mote, T. L.; Rennermalm, A.; Hanna, E.

    2017-12-01

    Despite recent changes in Greenland surface mass losses and atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, little attention has been given to the potential role of large-scale atmospheric processes on the spatial and temporal variability of mass loss and partitioning of the GrIS mass loss. Using a combination of satellite gravimetry measurements, outputs of the MAR regional climate model and reanalysis data, we show that changes in atmospheric patterns since 2013 over the North Atlantic region of the Arctic (NAA) modulate total mass loss trends over Greenland together with the spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss partitioning. For example, during the 2002 - 2012 period, melting persistently increased, especially along the west coast, as a consequence of increased insulation and negative NAO conditions characterizing that period. Starting in 2013, runoff along the west coast decreased while snowfall increased substantially, when NAO turned to a more neutral/positive state. Modeled surface mass balance terms since 1950 indicate that part of the GRACE-period, specifically the period between 2002 and 2012, was exceptional in terms of snowfall over the east and northeast regions. During that period snowfall trend decreased to almost 0 Gt/yr from a long-term increasing trend, which presumed again in 2013. To identify the potential impact of atmospheric patterns on mass balance and its partitioning, we studied the spatial and temporal correlations between NAO and snowfall/runoff. Our results indicate that the correlation between summer snowfall and NAO is not stable during the 1950 - 2015 period. We further looked at changes in patterns of circulation using self organizing maps (SOMs) to identify the atmospheric patterns characterizing snowfall during different periods. We discuss potential implications for past changes and future GCM and RCM simulations.

  17. THE UNIQUE Na:O ABUNDANCE DISTRIBUTION IN NGC 6791: THE FIRST OPEN(?) CLUSTER WITH MULTIPLE POPULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geisler, D.; Villanova, S.; Cummings, J.; Carraro, G.; Pilachowski, C.; Johnson, C. I.; Bresolin, F.

    2012-01-01

    Almost all globular clusters investigated exhibit a spread in their light element abundances, the most studied being an Na:O anticorrelation. In contrast, open clusters show a homogeneous composition and are still regarded as Simple Stellar Populations. The most probable reason for this difference is that globulars had an initial mass high enough to retain primordial gas and ejecta from the first stellar generation and thus formed a second generation with a distinct composition, an initial mass exceeding that of open clusters. NGC 6791 is a massive open cluster and warrants a detailed search for chemical inhomogeneities. We collected high-resolution, high signal-to-noise spectra of 21 members covering a wide range of evolutionary status and measured their Na, O, and Fe content. We found [Fe/H] = +0.42 ± 0.01, in good agreement with previous values, and no evidence for a spread. However, the Na:O distribution is completely unprecedented. It becomes the first open cluster to show intrinsic abundance variations that cannot be explained by mixing, and thus the first discovered to host multiple populations. It is also the first star cluster to exhibit two subpopulations in the Na:O diagram with one being chemically homogeneous while the second has an intrinsic spread that follows the anticorrelation so far displayed only by globular clusters. NGC 6791 is unique in many aspects, displaying certain characteristics typical of open clusters, others more reminiscent of globulars, and yet others, in particular its Na:O behavior investigated here, that are totally unprecedented. It clearly had a complex and fascinating history.

  18. The Unique Na:O Abundance Distribution in NGC 6791: The First Open(?) Cluster with Multiple Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geisler, D.; Villanova, S.; Carraro, G.; Pilachowski, C.; Cummings, J.; Johnson, C. I.; Bresolin, F.

    2012-09-01

    Almost all globular clusters investigated exhibit a spread in their light element abundances, the most studied being an Na:O anticorrelation. In contrast, open clusters show a homogeneous composition and are still regarded as Simple Stellar Populations. The most probable reason for this difference is that globulars had an initial mass high enough to retain primordial gas and ejecta from the first stellar generation and thus formed a second generation with a distinct composition, an initial mass exceeding that of open clusters. NGC 6791 is a massive open cluster and warrants a detailed search for chemical inhomogeneities. We collected high-resolution, high signal-to-noise spectra of 21 members covering a wide range of evolutionary status and measured their Na, O, and Fe content. We found [Fe/H] = +0.42 ± 0.01, in good agreement with previous values, and no evidence for a spread. However, the Na:O distribution is completely unprecedented. It becomes the first open cluster to show intrinsic abundance variations that cannot be explained by mixing, and thus the first discovered to host multiple populations. It is also the first star cluster to exhibit two subpopulations in the Na:O diagram with one being chemically homogeneous while the second has an intrinsic spread that follows the anticorrelation so far displayed only by globular clusters. NGC 6791 is unique in many aspects, displaying certain characteristics typical of open clusters, others more reminiscent of globulars, and yet others, in particular its Na:O behavior investigated here, that are totally unprecedented. It clearly had a complex and fascinating history.

  19. Type II Cepheids: evidence for Na-O anticorrelation for BL Her type stars?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovtyukh, V.; Yegorova, I.; Andrievsky, S.; Korotin, S.; Saviane, I.; Lemasle, B.; Chekhonadskikh, F.; Belik, S.

    2018-06-01

    The chemical composition of 28 Population II Cepheids and one RR Lyrae variable has been studied using high-resolution spectra. The chemical composition of W Vir variable stars (with periods longer than 8 d) is typical for the halo and thick disc stars. However, the chemical composition of BL Her variables (with periods of 0.8-4 d) is drastically different, although it does not differ essentially from that of the stars belonging to globular clusters. In particular, the sodium overabundance ([Na/Fe] ≈ 0.4) is reported for most of these stars, and the Na-O anticorrelation is also possible. The evolutionary tracks for BL Her variables (with a progenitor mass value of 0.8 solar masses) indicate that mostly helium-overabundant stars (Y = 0.30-0.35) can fall into the instability strip region. We suppose that it is the helium overabundance that accounts not only for the existence of BL Her variable stars but also for the observed abnormalities in the chemical composition of this small group of pulsating variables.

  20. Na-O abundances in M53: A Mostly First Generation Globular Cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boberg, Owen M.; Friel, Eileen D.; Vesperini, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    We present the Fe, Ca, Ti, Ni, Ba, Na, and O abundances for a sample of 53 red giant branch (RGB) stars in the globular cluster (GC) NGC 5024 (M53). The abundances were measured from high signal-to-noise medium resolution spectra collected with the Hydra multi-object spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5- meter telescope. M53 is of interest because previous studies based on the morphology of the cluster's horizontal branch suggested that it might be composed primarily of first generation (FG) stars and differ from the majority of other GCs withmultiple populations, which have been found to be dominated by second generation (SG) stars. Our sample has an average [Fe/H] = -2.07 with a standard deviation of 0.07 dex. This value is consistent with previouslypublished results. The alpha-element abundances in our sample are also consistent with the trends seen in Milky Way halo stars at similar metallicities, with enhanced [Ca/Fe] and [Ti/Fe] relative to solar. We find thatthe Na-O anti-correlation is not as extended as other GCs with similarly high masses. The fraction of SG to FG stars in our sample is approximately 1:3 and the SG is more centrally concentrated. These findings further support that M53 might be a mostly FG cluster and could give further insight into how GCs formed the light element abundance patterns we observe in them today.

  1. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

    2017-12-01

    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  2. Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

    2017-12-01

    We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

  3. Progress in Suppressing Scattered Light into the Optical Beam Path of the NAO Rozhen 2m Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovcharov, E. P.; Petrov, N.; Markov, H.; Bonev, T.; Donchev, Z.

    2010-09-01

    In this poster paper we present a summary of the published analysis of the spatial dependence of the magnitudes derived from images obtained in the RC focal plane of the 2m RCC NAO Rozhen telescope. An alert for the possible reason was the unusually curved flat-field images taken as a part of the standard CCD calibration procedure. The reasons for the problem are described and a solution is presented, which consists modification of the mirror baffles and mounting of special diaphragm at the entrance of the filter wheel.

  4. Localización probabilística del humanoide Nao en el campo de la RoboCup

    OpenAIRE

    García Sierra, Juan Felipe; Fernández Llamas, Camino; Matellán Olivera, Vicente; Rodríguez Lera, Francisco Javier

    2010-01-01

    Una de las habilidades fundamentales que debe poseer un robot para definirse como autónomo es la de autolocalizarse en un entorno dado. En este artículo abordaremos el problema de la localización aplicando técnicas probabilísticas combinando representaciones topológicas y métricas sobre un terreno acotado como es el campo de fútbol de la RoboCup. El artículo presenta también el funcionamiento y resultados obtenidos sobre un conjunto de pruebas simuladas y reales utilizando el humanoide Nao...

  5. Eliminating drift of the head gesture reference to enhance Google Glass-based control of an NAO humanoid robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqian Mao

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a strategy for hand-free control of an NAO humanoid robot via head gesture detected by Google Glass-based multi-sensor fusion. First, we introduce a Google Glass-based robot system by integrating the Google Glass and the NAO humanoid robot, which is able to send robot commands through Wi-Fi communications between the Google Glass and the robot. Second, we detect the operator’s head gestures by processing data from multiple sensors including accelerometers, geomagnetic sensors and gyroscopes. Next, we use a complementary filter to eliminate drift of the head gesture reference, which greatly improves the control performance. This is accomplished by the high-pass filter component on the control signal. Finally, we conduct obstacle avoidance experiments while navigating the robot to validate the effectiveness and reliability of this system. The experimental results show that the robot is smoothly navigated from its initial position to its destination with obstacle avoidance via the Google Glass. This hands-free control system can benefit those with paralysed limbs.

  6. Influence of winter NAO pattern on variable renewable energies potential in Europe over the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Baptiste; Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2017-04-01

    Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources in the electricity system is a challenge because of temporal and spatial fluctuations of their power generation resulting from their driving weather variables (i.e. solar radiation wind speed, precipitation, and temperature). Very few attention was paid to low frequency variability (i.e. from annual to decades) even though it may have significant impact on energy system and energy market Following the current increase in electricity supplied by VRE generation, one could ask the question about the risk of ending up in a situation in which the level of production of one or more VRE is exceptionally low or exceptionally high for a long period of time and/or over a large area. What would be the risk for an investor if the return on investment has been calculated on a high energy production period? What would be the cost in term of carbon emission whether the system manager needs to turn on coal power plant to satisfy the demand? Such dramatic events would definitely impact future stakeholder decision to invest in a particular energy source or another. Weather low frequency variability is mainly governed by large-scale teleconnection patterns impacting the climate at global scale such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and in North America or the North Atlantic Oscillation (hereafter, NAO) in North America and Europe. Teleconnection pattern's influence on weather variability cascades to VRE variability and ends up by impacting electricity system. The aim of this study is to analysis the impact of the NAO on VRE generation in Europe during the winter season. The analysis is carried out over the twentieth century (i.e. from 1900 to 2010), in order to take into account climate low frequency variability, and for a set of 12 regions covering a large range of climates in Europe. Weather variable time series are obtained by using the ERA20C reanalysis and the SCAMP model (Sequential Constructive

  7. How Does Mediterranean Basin's Atmosphere Become Weak Moisture Source During Negative Phase of NAO: Use of AIRS, AMSR, TOVS, & TRMM Satellite Datasets Over Last Two NAO Cycles to Examine Governing Controls on E-P

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.; Mehta, Amita V.

    2008-01-01

    The Mediterranean Sea is a noted 'concentration" basin in that it almost continuously exhibits positive evaporation minus precipitation (E - P ) properties -- throughout the four seasons and from one year to the next. Nonetheless, according to the ECMWF Era-40 48-year (1958-2005) climate reanalysis dataset, for various phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the pressure gradient between Portugal and Iceland becomes either very relaxed (large negative NAO-Index) or in transition (small positive or negative NAO-Index), the atmospheric moisture source properties of the basin become weak, at times even reversed for several months (i.e., negative E - P). This behavior poses numerous questions concerning how and why these events occur. Moreover, it begs the question of what it would take for the basin to reach its tipping point in which P would exceed E throughout the rainy season (some six months) on an annually persistent basis -- and the sea would possibly transform to a recurring "dilution" basin. This talk investigates these questions by: (1) establishing over a period from 1979 to present, based on detailed analyses of satellite retrieval products from a combination of NASA-AQUA, NOAA-LEO, NASA/JAXA Scatterometer, and NASA-TRMM platforms, plus additional specialized satellite data products and ancillary meteorological datasets, the actual observation-based behavior of E - P, (2) diagnosing the salient physical and meteorological mechanisms that lead to the weaker E - P events during the analysis period, partly based on analyzing surface and upper air data at discrete stations in the western and eastern Mediterranean -- while at the same time evaluating the quality of the ERA-40 data over this same time period, (3) conducting GCM and high-resolution regional modeling experiments to determine if perturbed but realistic meteorological background conditions could maintain Mediterranean as a "dilution" basin through the October to March rainy season on

  8. Tema 2: The NAO robot as a Persuasive Educational and Entertainment Robot (PEER – a case study on children’s articulation, categorization and interaction with a social robot for learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lykke Brogaard Bertel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of social robots as motivational tools and companions in education is increasingly being explored from a theoretical and practical point of view. In this paper, we examine the social robot NAO as a Persuasive Educational and Entertainment Robot (PEER and present findings from a case study on the use of NAO to support learning environments in Danish primary schools. In the case study we focus on the children’s practice of articulation and embodied interaction with NAO and investigate the role of NAO as a ‘tool’, ‘social actor’ or ‘simulating medium’ in the learning designs. We examine whether this categorization is static or dynamic, i. e. develops and changes over the course of the interaction and explore how this relates to and affects the student’s motivation to engage in the NAO-supported learning activities.

  9. Tema 2: The NAO robot as a Persuasive Educational and Entertainment Robot (PEER – a case study on children’s articulation, categorization and interaction with a social robot for learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lykke Brogaard Bertel

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The application of social robots as motivational tools and companions in education is increasingly being explored from a theoretical and practical point of view. In this paper, we examine the social robot NAO as a Persuasive Educational and Entertainment Robot (PEER and present findings from a case study on the use of NAO to support learning environments in Danish primary schools. In the case study we focus on the children’s practice of articulation and embodied interaction with NAO and investigate the role of NAO as a ‘tool’, ‘social actor’ or ‘simulating medium’ in the learning designs. We examine whether this categorization is static or dynamic, i. e. develops and changes over the course of the interaction and explore how this relates to and affects the student’s motivation to engage in the NAO-supported learning activities.

  10. The influences of the AMO and NAO on the sedimentary infill in an Azores Archipelago lake since ca. 1350 CE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Armand; Sáez, Alberto; Bao, Roberto; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Doolittle, Sara; Masqué, Pere; Rull, Valentí; Gonçalves, Vítor; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Rubio-Inglés, María J.; Sánchez-López, Guiomar; Giralt, Santiago

    2017-07-01

    The location of the Azores Archipelago in the North Atlantic makes this group of islands an excellent setting to study the long-term behavior of large oceanic and atmospheric climate dynamic patterns, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we present the impacts of these patterns on Lake Empadadas (Azores Archipelago) from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) - Little Ice Age (LIA) transition to the present based on sedimentological, geochemical and biological characterizations of the sedimentary record. Multivariate analyses of a number of proxies including X-ray fluorescence (XRF), X-ray diffraction (XRD), total organic and inorganic carbon (TOC and TIC) and diatom life forms abundance reveal that the sedimentary infill evolution has been controlled by (i) fluctuations in the lake level and (ii) variations in organic matter accumulation. Both processes are governed by climate variability and modulated by anthropogenic activities associated with changes on the lake catchment. Changes in these two sedimentary processes have been used to infer five stages: (i) the MCA-LIA transition (ca. 1350-1450 CE) was characterized by a predominantly positive AMO phase, which led to intermediate lake levels and high organic matter concentration; (ii) the first half of the LIA (ca. 1450-1600 CE) was characterized by predominant lowstand conditions and intermediate organic matter deposition mainly related to negative AMO phases; (iii) the second half of the LIA (ca. 1600-1850 CE) was characterized by negative AMO and NAO phases, implying intermediate lake levels and high organic matter deposition; (iv) the Industrial era (ca. 1850-1980 CE) was characterized by the lowest lake level and organic matter accumulation associated with negative AMO phases; and (v) the period spanning between 1980 CE and the present reveals the highest lake levels and low organic matter deposition, being associated with very positive AMO

  11. Teleconnections in Groundwater of U.S. Principal Aquifers to the Non-Stationarity of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater will play an important role in society's adaptation to climate variability and change. Therefore, it is particularly important to detect and quantify teleconnections in groundwater with non-stationarity in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales because of the tangible and near-term implications for water-resource management. Interannual to multidecadal climate variability partially controls precipitation distribution in space and time, drought frequency and severity, snowmelt runoff, streamflow, and other hydrologic processes that profoundly affects surface-water resources. However, the effects of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on recharge rates and mechanisms and other subsurface hydrologic processes that affect groundwater quantity and quality are largely unknown in most aquifers of the United States (U.S.) and other regions of the world. Here we use singular spectrum analysis (SSA), wavelet coherence analysis, and lag correlation to quantify the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 year cycle) on precipitation, groundwater levels, simulated groundwater pumping, and climate varying recharge rates across the regionally extensive Central Valley (52,000 km2), Basin and Range (700,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and North Atlantic Coastal Plain (130,000 km2) Principal Aquifers (PAs) of the U.S. The results indicate that precipitation, recharge, and groundwater levels are partially affected by interannual to multidecadal climate variability and groundwater-level fluctuations are not solely a function of temporal patterns in pumping. ENSO and PDO have a greater control than NAO and AMO on variability in precipitation and groundwater levels across the U.S., particularly in the western and central PAs. At many locations, recharge

  12. Jian Nao Ning for Treatment of Memory Impairment in Patients with Mild or Moderate Multi-infarct Dementia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田金洲; 尹军祥; 刘峘; 杨承芝; 王永炎

    2002-01-01

    Forty patients with multi-infarct dementia (MID) were randomly assigned to the treatment group (25 cases) treated with Jian Nao Ning (健脑宁JNN) and the duxil control group (15 cases). Memory function were assessed at baseline and endpoint using memory subscales of a battery of New Psychometric Tests (Chinese version) including mini-mental state examination (MMSE), verbal memory, and non-verbal memory, etc. After treatment, the mean scores of verbal memory in the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test (P<0.05) and total memory scores of memory items (P<0.001) in JNN group increased significantly; and improvement in episodic memory function including story recall (immediate and delayed), delayed word recall, verbal learning and verbal recognition and visual recognition in the JNN group was better than that in the duxil control group, suggesting that JNN can obviously improve memory function for the patients with mild or moderate multi-infarct dementia.

  13. Nitric acid oxidation of Si (NAOS) method for low temperature fabrication of SiO{sub 2}/Si and SiO{sub 2}/SiC structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, H., E-mail: koba771@ybb.ne.jp [Institute of Scientific and Industrial Research, Osaka University, and CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 8-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-0047 (Japan); Imamura, K.; Kim, W.-B.; Im, S.-S.; Asuha [Institute of Scientific and Industrial Research, Osaka University, and CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 8-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-0047 (Japan)

    2010-07-15

    We have developed low temperature formation methods of SiO{sub 2}/Si and SiO{sub 2}/SiC structures by use of nitric acid, i.e., nitric acid oxidation of Si (or SiC) (NAOS) methods. By use of the azeotropic NAOS method (i.e., immersion in 68 wt% HNO{sub 3} aqueous solutions at 120 deg. C), an ultrathin (i.e., 1.3-1.4 nm) SiO{sub 2} layer with a low leakage current density can be formed on Si. The leakage current density can be further decreased by post-metallization anneal (PMA) at 200 deg. C in hydrogen atmosphere, and consequently the leakage current density at the gate bias voltage of 1 V becomes 1/4-1/20 of that of an ultrathin (i.e., 1.5 nm) thermal oxide layer usually formed at temperatures between 800 and 900 deg. C. The low leakage current density is attributable to (i) low interface state density, (ii) low SiO{sub 2} gap-state density, and (iii) high band discontinuity energy at the SiO{sub 2}/Si interface arising from the high atomic density of the NAOS SiO{sub 2} layer. For the formation of a relatively thick (i.e., {>=}10 nm) SiO{sub 2} layer, we have developed the two-step NAOS method in which the initial and subsequent oxidation is performed by immersion in {approx}40 wt% HNO{sub 3} and azeotropic HNO{sub 3} aqueous solutions, respectively. In this case, the SiO{sub 2} formation rate does not depend on the Si surface orientation. Using the two-step NAOS method, a uniform thickness SiO{sub 2} layer can be formed even on the rough surface of poly-crystalline Si thin films. The atomic density of the two-step NAOS SiO{sub 2} layer is slightly higher than that for thermal oxide. When PMA at 250 deg. C in hydrogen is performed on the two-step NAOS SiO{sub 2} layer, the current-voltage and capacitance-voltage characteristics become as good as those for thermal oxide formed at 900 deg. C. A relatively thick (i.e., {>=}10 nm) SiO{sub 2} layer can also be formed on SiC at 120 deg. C by use of the two-step NAOS method. With no treatment before the NAOS method

  14. El ciclo anual de la hidrología de Colombia en relación con el ENSO y la NAO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DE L’ENSO ET DE LA NAO SUR LE CYCLE ANNUEL DE L’HYDROLOGIE DE COLOMBIE. On évalue l’impact de El Niño-Oscillation du Sud (ENSO et de l’Oscillation de l’Atlantique Nord (NAO sur le cycle annuel hydrologique colombien. Les résultats du Projet de Réanalyse Climatologique NCEP/NCAR ont été utilisés pour identifier les mécanismes de la circulation atmosphérique qui interviennent dans cette région au cours des phases extrêmes de l’ENSO. En particulier, l’affaiblissement du courant jet inférieur d’ouest, qui se propage du Pacifique vers l’intérieur de la Colombie, est l’un des principaux mécanismes de circulation susceptible de nous aider à expliquer les anomalies hydrologiques en situation El Niño. Les résultats confirment l’importance de l’influence de l’ENSO et de la NAO sur les précipitations et les débits de Colombie, en particulier au cours des trimestres de septembre-octobre-novembre et de décembre-janvier-février. Se cuantifica la dependencia del ciclo anual de la hidroclimatología de Colombia con respecto del fenómeno El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO y la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO. Se usan los resultados del Proyecto de Reanálisis Climático de NCEP/NCAR para identificar los mecanismos de la circulación involucrados en las anomalías climáticas en la región de Suramérica tropical durante las fases extremas del ENSO (El Niño y La Niña. De particular importancia, el debilitamiento, durante El Niño, de la corriente de chorro superficial del oeste que penetra desde el Océano Pacífico hacia el interior de Colombia es un mecanismo de la circulación que coadyuva para explicar las anomalías hidrológicas. Los resultados confirman la fuerte influencia del ENSO y la NAO sobre las lluvias y los caudales de Colombia, en particular durante los trimestres septiembre-octubre-noviembre y diciembre-enero-febrero. THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE HYDROLOGY IN COLOMBIA IN RELATION TO THE ENSO AND NAO

  15. In Situ Imaging the Oxygen Reduction Reactions of Solid State Na-O2 Batteries with CuO Nanowires as the Air Cathode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qiunan; Yang, Tingting; Du, Congcong; Tang, Yongfu; Sun, Yong; Jia, Peng; Chen, Jingzhao; Ye, Hongjun; Shen, Tongde; Peng, Qiuming; Zhang, Liqiang; Huang, Jianyu

    2018-05-14

    We report real time imaging of the oxygen reduction reactions (ORRs) in all solid state sodium oxygen batteries (SOBs) with CuO nanowires (NWs) as the air cathode in an aberration-corrected environmental transmission electron microscope under an oxygen environment. The ORR occurred in a distinct two-step reaction, namely, a first conversion reaction followed by a second multiple ORR. In the former, CuO was first converted to Cu 2 O and then to Cu; in the latter, NaO 2 formed first, followed by its disproportionation to Na 2 O 2 and O 2 . Concurrent with the two distinct electrochemical reactions, the CuO NWs experienced multiple consecutive large volume expansions. It is evident that the freshly formed ultrafine-grained Cu in the conversion reaction catalyzed the latter one-electron-transfer ORR, leading to the formation of NaO 2 . Remarkably, no carbonate formation was detected in the oxygen cathode after cycling due to the absence of carbon source in the whole battery setup. These results provide fundamental understanding into the oxygen chemistry in the carbonless air cathode in all solid state Na-O 2 batteries.

  16. The near-term prediction of drought and flooding conditions in the northeastern United States based on extreme phases of AMO and NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berton, Rouzbeh; Driscoll, Charles T.; Adamowski, Jan F.

    2017-10-01

    A series of hydroclimatic teleconnection patterns were identified between variations in either Atlantic or Pacific oceanic indices with precipitation and discharge anomalies in the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that temporal annual or seasonal changes in discharge could be explained by variations in extreme phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO index, SST: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, SLP: Sea-Level Pressure anomalies) up to three seasons in advance. The Merrimack River watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, with a drainage area of 13,000 km2, is a compelling study site because it not only provides an opportunity to investigate the teleconnection between hydrologic variables and large-scale climate circulation patterns, but also how those patterns may become obscured by anthropogenic disturbances such as river regulation or urban development. We considered precipitation and discharge data of 21 gauging stations within the Merrimack River watershed, including the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), NH, with a median record length of 55 years beginning as early as 1904. The discharge anomalies were statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.2) between extreme positive and negative phases of AMO (1857-2011) and NAO (1900-2011) and revealed the potential teleconnectivity of climate circulation patterns with discharge. Annual and seasonal correlations of discharge were examined with the extreme phases of AMO and NAO at zero-, one-, or two- year/season lags (total of 30 scenarios). When AMO was greater than 0.2, the strongest correlations of AMO and NAO with discharge were observed at headwater catchments. This correlation weakened downstream towards larger regulated and/or developed sub-basins. We introduced a simple approach for near-term prediction of drought and flooding events. An exponential decay function was regressed through the historic occurrence of the relative

  17. Ultrathin SiO{sub 2} layer formed by the nitric acid oxidation of Si (NAOS) method to improve the thermal-SiO{sub 2}/Si interface for crystalline Si solar cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsumoto, Taketoshi; Nakajima, Hiroki; Irishika, Daichi; Nonaka, Takaaki; Imamura, Kentaro; Kobayashi, Hikaru, E-mail: h.kobayashi@sanken.osaka-u.ac.jp

    2017-02-15

    Highlights: • The density of interface states at the SiO{sub 2}/Si interface is decreased by NAOS. • The minority carrier lifetime is increased by the NAOS treatment. • Great interfacial properties of the NAOS layer are kept after thermal oxidation. - Abstract: A combination of the nitric acid oxidation of Si (NAOS) method and post-thermal oxidation is found to efficiently passivate the SiO{sub 2}/n-Si(100) interface. Thermal oxidation at 925 °C and annealing at 450 °C in pure hydrogen atmosphere increases the minority carrier lifetime by three orders of magnitude, and it is attributed to elimination of Si dangling bond interface states. Fabrication of an ultrathin, i.e., 1.1 nm, NAOS SiO{sub 2} layer before thermal oxidation and H{sub 2} annealing further increases the minority carrier lifetime by 30% from 8.6 to 11.1 ms, and decreased the interface state density by 10% from 6.9 × 10{sup 9} to 6.3 × 10{sup 9}eV{sup −1} cm{sup −2}. After thermal oxidation at 800 °C, the SiO{sub 2} layer on the NAOS-SiO{sub 2}/Si(100) structure is 2.26 nm thick, i.e., 0.24 nm thicker than that on the Si(100) surface, while after thermal oxidation at 925 °C, it is 4.2 nm thick, i.e., 0.4 nm thinner than that on Si(100). The chemical stability results from the higher atomic density of a NAOS SiO{sub 2} layer than that of a thermal oxide layer as reported in Ref. [28] (Asuha et al., 2002). Higher minority carrier lifetime in the presence of the NAOS layer indicates that the NAOS-SiO{sub 2}/Si interface with a low interface state density is preserved after thermal oxidation, which supports out-diffusion oxidation mechanism, by which a thermal oxide layer is formed on the NAOS SiO{sub 2} layer.

  18. Use of Bacillus subtilis isolates from Tua-nao towards nutritional improvement of soya bean hull for monogastric feed application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongputtisin, P; Khanongnuch, C; Kongbuntad, W; Niamsup, P; Lumyong, S; Sarkar, P K

    2014-09-01

    Soya bean hull (SBH) is a cheap and high-fibre content feed ingredient that obtained after soya bean oil extraction. Microbial fermentation was expected to improve SBH qualities before applying to animals, especially monogastric animals. Two bacterial strains, Bacillus subtilis MR10 and TK8 that were isolated from Tua-nao, a traditional fermented soya bean in northern Thailand, were used for fermented soya bean hull (FSBH) production. Both could easily grow at 37°C in SBH as the sole substrate. MR10 produced the highest β-mannanase activity (400 U g(-1) SBH) on day 2, while TK8 produced the highest cellulase activity (14·5 U g(-1) SBH) on day 3. After fermentation, the nutritional quality of SBH was obviously improved by an increase in soluble sugars, soluble proteins, crude protein and crude lipid, and a decrease in the content of raffinose family oligosaccharides. Scavenging activity (%) of SBH against ABTS radical cation was also increased from 14 to 27 and 20% by MR10 and TK8 fermentation, respectively. According to the GRAS property of these both strains and various improvements of nutritional values, the fermented SBH proved to be a potential feed ingredient, especially for the monogastric animals. Normally, soya bean hull has been recognized as only a worthless by-product from soya bean oil production process because of its low utilizable nutrients. Our study introduced an alternative way to utilize this worthless residue using biotechnological knowledge. The nutritional quality of soya bean hull was improved by microbial fermentation. Fermented soya bean hull can be used as a cheap, safe and high-nutrient feed ingredient for livestock production, especially monogastric animals, to promote their growth performances, instead of using antibiotics in some regions of the world. © 2014 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  19. Detecting the Benefits of Shade Management in the Thermal Regime of an Upland River Under Positive and Negative Phases of the NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, R.; Johnson, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Water temperature is an important determinant of river ecosystem function and health. Hence, there is growing concern about rising surface water temperatures as a consequence of global warming and human modifications to river regimes. Some agencies are advocating riparian shade management as a means of `keeping rivers cool'. As appealing as this policy might seem, there are a host of practical considerations such as which species to plant, where to plant, and how much to plant? Moreover, there can be unintended consequences for groundwater recharge, flood risk and nutrient fluxes through the buffer zone. The thermal benefits of tree-planting may also be hard to detect amidst the integrated, downstream effects of landscape shade and flows from springs. Yet, to truly evaluate shade management as an adaptation to climate change, clear evidence is needed of the costs and benefits of this local intervention. What has this got to do with natural modes of climate variability? Continental scale, hydrological impacts of ENSO, the PDO and NAO have been widely reported - these periodic variations in ocean-atmosphere circulations are often blamed for floods, droughts, wildfire, crop failures, and the like. But there is emerging evidence that such phenomena also drive inter-annual variations in the heat flux of rivers. This matters because the underlying signal can confound field and model experiments intended to test adaptation options. Here, we present evidence of NAO signatures in the water temperature regime of the River Dove, UK. We compare the amplitude of these thermal variations with the expected benefit of tree planting. We demonstrate that the difference in maximum summer water temperature between strongly positive and strongly negative NAO phases can be about 2.5°C. This is equivalent to the thermal benefit of more than 2 km of riparian shade for the river studied. So, whilst modes of climate variability undoubtedly have a global footprint, let us not forget that

  20. Determination of the absolute second-order rate constant for the reaction Na + O3 → NaO + O2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husain, David; Marshall, Paul; Plane, J.M.C.

    1985-01-01

    The absolute second-order rate constant for the reaction Na + O 3 -> NaO + O 2 (k 1 ) has been determined by time-resolved atomic resonance absorption spectroscopy at lambda = 589 nm [Na(3 2 Psub(j)) 2 Ssub(1/2))] following pulsed irradiation, coupled with monitoring of O 3 by light absorption in the ultra-violet; this yields k 1 (500 K) = 4(+4,-2) x 10 -10 cm 3 molecule -1 s -1 , resolving large differences for various estimates of this important quantity used in modelling the sodium layer in the mesosphere. (author)

  1. The Little Ice Age was 1.0-1.5 °C cooler than current warm period according to LOD and NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzarella, Adriano; Scafetta, Nicola

    2018-02-01

    We study the yearly values of the length of day (LOD, 1623-2016) and its link to the zonal index (ZI, 1873-2003), the Northern Atlantic oscillation index (NAO, 1659-2000) and the global sea surface temperature (SST, 1850-2016). LOD is herein assumed to be mostly the result of the overall circulations occurring within the ocean-atmospheric system. We find that LOD is negatively correlated with the global SST and with both the integral function of ZI and NAO, which are labeled as IZI and INAO. A first result is that LOD must be driven by a climatic change induced by an external (e.g. solar/astronomical) forcing since internal variability alone would have likely induced a positive correlation among the same variables because of the conservation of the Earth's angular momentum. A second result is that the high correlation among the variables implies that the LOD and INAO records can be adopted as global proxies to reconstruct past climate change. Tentative global SST reconstructions since the seventeenth century suggest that around 1700, that is during the coolest period of the Little Ice Age (LIA), SST could have been about 1.0-1.5 °C cooler than the 1950-1980 period. This estimated LIA cooling is greater than what some multiproxy global climate reconstructions suggested, but it is in good agreement with other more recent climate reconstructions including those based on borehole temperature data.

  2. Diversity and uses of Zingiberaceae in Nam Nao National Park, Chaiyaphum and Phetchabun provinces, Thailand, with a new record for Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surapon Saensouk

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Three tribes, 12 genera and 38 species of the ginger family (Zingiberaceae along five routes in Nam Nao National Park were surveyed between January 2012 and December 2013 to determine their diversity, ecological data, phenology, uses and conservation status. The highest diversity was found in the tribe Zingibereae (6 genera and 21 species, of which the genera Curcuma and Zingiber comprised the highest number species (eight species each. A species key was constructed based on morphology. The ginger family was found in four forest-types—deciduous dipterocarp forest, mixed deciduous forest, dry evergreen forest and pine forest. The most flowering bloom of the ginger family in Nam Nao National Park was during March to August and the most fruiting bloom was during June to September. The popular uses of Zingiberaceae were as a food, spice, in medicine, as ornamentation and in rituals. Eight species have been evaluated as of least concern and are presented in the IUCN Red List, while two rare species were reported in Thailand Red Data: Plants, while six rare Zingiberaceae species were identified based on the evaluation criteria of Saensouk (2011. Four species were endemic to Thailand. Moreover, Etlingera yunnanensis (T. L. Wu & S. J. Chen R. M. Smith was a new record for Thailand.

  3. Analysis of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for Alpine temperature. Validation and influence of the NAO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proemmel, K. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2008-11-06

    elevations reaches -3.5 K, whereas by applying a monthly varying lapse rate based on the station data it reaches only about -1 K. The comparison of the REMO simulation and ERA40 reanalysis shows that the added value of the former varies between seasons and regions. In some regions it also depends on the selection of stations used for the validation. Robust features include a better performance of REMO in the inner Alpine subregions, where the orography is most complex. The lack of consistent value added by REMO in this hindcast setup may be partly explicable by the fact that meteorological measurements are assimilated in the ERA40 reanalysis but not in the REMO simulation. As the higher resolution leads to an added value in the simulation of temperature, at least in the most complex areas, the question is addressed whether it also leads to more detailed structures in the temperature response to circulation variability. In this study the temperature response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with its strong influence on European winter climate is analysed over the GAR by using a very dense homogenised station dataset (HISTALP and stations from Austrian and Swiss weather services), the high-resolution simulation (for information in areas, where no station data are available) and the reanalysis. In earlier studies only a few individual stations or gridded data not higher resolved than 1 were used. The temperature signals based on the station data and based on the model data have very similar patterns and are in agreement with the European-wide pattern. The highly resolved model data show an additional clear small-scale pattern with a strong signal south of the main Alpine ridge potentially caused by the foehn effect. This small-scale structure is not visible in the reanalysis due to the coarser resolution and was also not found in previous studies based on both station and model data for the same reason. (orig.)

  4. Risk ranking of pathogens in ready-to-eat unprocessed foods of non-animal origin (FoNAO) in the EU: Initial evaluation using outbreak data (2007-2011)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Da Silva Felício, M. T.; Hald, Tine; Liebana, E.

    2015-01-01

    Foods of non-animal origin (FoNAO) are consumed in a variety of forms, being a major component of almost all meals. These food types have the potential to be associated with large outbreaks as seen in 2011 associated with VTEC O104. In order to identify and rank specific food/pathogen combination...... processed, stored and prepared as part of the above data collection exercises....... most often linked to human cases originating from FoNAO in the EU, a semi-quantitative model was developed using seven criteria: strength of associations between food and pathogen based on the foodborne outbreak data from EU Zoonoses Monitoring (2007-2011), incidence of illness, burden of disease, dose......NAO in the EU. Efforts to collect additional data even in the absence of reported outbreaks as well as to enhance the quality of the EU-specific data, which was used as input for all the model criteria, will allow the improvement of the model outputs. Furthermore, it is recommended that harmonised terminology...

  5. Up-Regulation of CYP2C19 Expression by BuChang NaoXinTong via PXR Activation in HepG2 Cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Sun

    Full Text Available Cytochrome P450 2C19 (CYP2C19 is an important drug-metabolizing enzyme (DME, which is responsible for the biotransformation of several kinds of drugs such as proton pump inhibitors, platelet aggregation inhibitors and antidepressants. Previous studies showed that Buchang NaoXinTong capsules (NXT increased the CYP2C19 metabolic activity in vitro and enhanced the antiplatelet effect of clopidogrel in vivo. However, the underlying molecular mechanism remained unclear. In the present study, we examined whether Pregnane X receptor (PXR plays a role in NXT-mediated regulation of CYP2C19 expression.We applied luciferase assays, real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR, Western blotting and cell-based analysis of metabolic activity experiments to investigate the NXT regulatory effects on the CYP2C19 promoter activity, the mRNA/ protein expression and the metabolic activity.Our results demonstrated that NXT significantly increased the CYP2C19 promoter activity when co-transfected with PXR in HepG2 cells. Mutations in PXR responsive element abolished the NXT inductive effects on the CYP2C19 promoter transcription. Additionally, NXT incubation (150 and 250μg/mL also markedly up-regulated endogenous CYP2C19 mRNA and protein levels in PXR-transfected HepG2 cells. Correspondingly, NXT leaded to a significant enhancement of the CYP2C19 catalytic activity in PXR-transfected HepG2 cells.In summary, this is the first study to suggest that NXT could induce CYP2C19 expression via PXR activation.

  6. Identification of entomopathogenic nematodes and symbiotic bacteria from Nam Nao National Park in Thailand and larvicidal activity of symbiotic bacteria against Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yooyangket, Temsiri; Muangpat, Paramaporn; Polseela, Raxsina; Tandhavanant, Sarunporn; Thanwisai, Aunchalee; Vitta, Apichat

    2018-01-01

    Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) that are symbiotically associated with Xenorhabdus and Photorhabdus bacteria can kill target insects via direct infection and toxin action. There are limited reports identifying such organisms in the National Park of Thailand. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to identify EPNs and symbiotic bacteria from Nam Nao National Park, Phetchabun Province, Thailand and to evaluate the larvicidal activity of bacteria against Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. A total of 12 EPN isolates belonging to Steinernema and Heterorhabditis were obtained form 940 soil samples between February 2014 and July 2016. EPNs were molecularly identified as S. websteri (10 isolates) and H. baujardi (2 isolates). Symbiotic bacteria were isolated from EPNs and molecularly identified as P. luminescens subsp. akhurstii (13 isolates), X. stockiae (11 isolates), X. vietnamensis (2 isolates) and X. japonica (1 isolate). For the bioassay, bacterial suspensions were evaluated for toxicity against third to early fourth instar larvae of Aedes spp. The larvae of both Aedes species were orally susceptible to symbiotic bacteria. The highest larval mortality of Ae. aegypti was 99% after exposure to X. stockiae (bNN112.3_TH) at 96 h, and the highest mortality of Ae. albopictus was 98% after exposure to P. luminescens subsp. akhurstii (bNN121.4_TH) at 96 h. In contrast to the control groups (Escherichia coli and distilled water), the mortality rate of both mosquito larvae ranged between 0 and 7% at 72 h. Here, we report the first observation of X. vietnamensis in Thailand. Additionally, we report the first observation of P. luminescens subsp. akhurstii associated with H. baujardi in Thailand. X. stockiae has potential to be a biocontrol agent for mosquitoes. This investigation provides a survey of the basic diversity of EPNs and symbiotic bacteria in the National Park of Thailand, and it is a bacterial resource for further studies of bioactive compounds.

  7. Protective effects of traditional Chinese medicine formula NaoShuanTong capsule on haemorheology and cerebral energy metabolism disorders in rats with blood stasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hong; Peng, Yao-Yao; Liang, Feng-Yin; Chen, Si; Li, Pei-Bo; Peng, Wei; Liu, Zhong-Zheng; Xie, Cheng-Shi; Long, Chao-Feng; Su, Wei-Wei

    2014-01-02

    NaoShuanTong capsule (NSTC), an oral traditional Chinese medicine formula, is composed of Pollen Typhae , Radix Paeoniae Rubra , Rhizoma Gastrodiae , Radix Rhapontici and Radix Curcumae . It has been widely used to treat ischemic stroke in clinic for many years in China. In addition to neuronal apoptosis, haemorheology and cerebral energy metabolism disorders also play an important role in the pathogenesis and development of ischemic stroke. The present study was designed to evaluate the in vivo protective effects of NSTC on haemorheology and cerebral energy metabolism disorders in rats with blood stasis. Sixty specific pathogen-free sprague-dawley rats, male only, were randomly divided into six groups (control group, model group, aspirin (100 mg/kg/d) group, NSTC low-dose (400 mg/kg/d) group, NSTC intermediate-dose (800 mg/kg/d) group, NSTC high-dose (1600 mg/kg/d) group) with 10 animals in each. The rats except those in the control group were placed in ice-cold water (0-4 °C) for 5 min during the time interval (4 h) of two adrenaline hydrochloride injections (0.8 mg/kg) to induce blood stasis. After treatment, whole blood viscosity at three shear rates, plasma viscosity and erythrocyte sedimentation rate significantly decreased in NSTC intermediate- and high-dose groups; erythrocyte aggregation index and red corpuscle electrophoresis index significantly decreased in all the three dose NSTC groups. Moreover, treatment with high-dose NSTC could significantly improve Na + -K + adenosine triphosphatase (ATPase) and Ca 2+ ATPase activity, as well as lower lactic acid level in brain tissues. These results demonstrated the protective effects of NSTC on haemorheology and cerebral energy metabolism disorders, which may provide scientific information for the further understanding of mechanism(s) of NSTC as a clinical treatment for ischemic stroke. Furthermore, the protective effects of activating blood circulation as observed in this study might create valuable

  8. Fabiola Gianotti "O universo que vemos, estrelas, planetas e galaxias, é apenas 5% do que là està. Nao hà instrumentos que nos permitam observar o restantes 95%, que sao o que chamamos matéria escura e energia"

    CERN Document Server

    Caetano, Emilia

    2017-01-01

    Fabiola Gianotti "O universo que vemos, estrelas, planetas e galaxias, é apenas 5% do que là està. Nao hà instrumentos que nos permitam observar o restantes 95%, que sao o que chamamos matéria escura e energia"

  9. 3D coordination polymers with nitrilotriacetic and 4,4'-bipyridyl mixed ligands: structural variation based on dinuclear or tetranuclear subunits assisted by Na-O and/or O-H...O interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Xing-Qiang; Jiang, Ji-Jun; Chen, Chun-Long; Kang, Bei-Sheng; Su, Cheng-Yong

    2005-06-27

    The reactions of Cu(II) with the mixed nitrilotriacetic acid (H3NTA) and 4,4'-bipyridyl (4,4'-bpy) ligands in different metal-to-ligand ratios in the presence of NaOH and NaClO4 afforded two complexes, Na3[Cu2(NTA)2(4,4'-bpy)]ClO4 x 5H2O (1) and [Cu2(NTA) (4,4'-bpy)2]ClO4 x 4H2O (2). The two complexes have been characterized by elemental analysis, IR, XRD, and single-crystal X-ray diffraction. 1 contains a basic doubly negatively charged [Cu2(NTA)2(4,4'-bpy)]2- dinuclear unit which was further assembled via multiple Na-O and O-H...O interactions into a three-dimensional (3D) pillared-layer structure. 2 features a two-dimensional (2D) undulated brick-wall architecture containing a basic doubly positively charged [Cu4(NTA)2(4,4'-bpy)2]2+ tetranuclear unit. The 2D network possesses large cavities hosting guest molecules and was further assembled via O-H...O hydrogen bonds into a 3D structure with several channels running in different directions.

  10. Evaluation of parametric and nonparametric models to predict water flow; Avaliacao entre modelos parametricos e nao parametricos para previsao de vazoes afluentes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, T.C.; Cruz Junior, G.; Vinhal, C. [Universidade Federal de Goias (UFG), Goiania, GO (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computacao], Emails: thyago@eeec.ufg.br, gcruz@eeec.ufg.br, vinhal@eeec.ufg.br

    2009-07-01

    The goal of this paper is to present a methodology to carry out the seasonal stream flow forecasting using database of average monthly inflows of one Brazilian hydroelectric plant located at Grande, Tocantins, Paranaiba, Sao Francisco and Iguacu river's. The model is based on the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the non-parametric model. The performance of this model was compared with a periodic autoregressive model, the parametric model. The results show that the forecasting errors of the non-parametric model considered are significantly lower than the parametric model. (author)

  11. Structural change of NaO1/2-WO3-NbO5/2-LaO3/2-PO5/2 glass induced by electrochemical substitution of sodium ions with protons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiyama, Tomohiro; Yamaguchi, Takuya; Nishii, Junji; Yamashita, Toshiharu; Kawazoe, Hiroshi; Kuwata, Naoaki; Kawamura, Junichi; Omata, Takahisa

    2015-05-28

    Structural changes of 35NaO1/2-1WO3-8NbO5/2-5LaO3/2-51PO5/2 glass (1W-glass) before and after the electrochemical substitution of sodium ions with protons by alkali-proton substitution (APS) are studied by Raman and (31)P magic-angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance (MAS-NMR) spectroscopies. The glass before APS consists of (PO3(-))8.6(P2O7(4-)) chains on average and the terminal Q(1) units (-O-PO3(3-)) are bound to MO6 octahedra (M denotes niobium or tungsten) through P-O-M bonds. Some non-bridging oxygens (NBOs) in the MO6 octahedra are present in addition to the bridging oxygens (BOs) in P-O-M bonds. APS induces fragmentation of the phosphate chains because the average chain length decreases to (PO3(-))3.7(P2O7(4-)) after APS, despite the total number of modifier cations of sodium and lanthanum ions and protons being unaffected by APS. This fragmentation is induced by some of the NBOs in the MO6 octahedra before APS, changing to BOs of the newly formed M-O-P bonds after APS, because of the preferential formation of P-OH bonds over M-OH ones in the present glass. We show that APS under the conditions used here is not a simple substitution of sodium ions with protons, but it is accompanied by the structural relaxation of the glass to stabilize the injected protons.

  12. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-11-01

    In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

  13. Effect of Yi-nao-jie-yu decoction on γ-aminobutyric acid type A receptor in the hippocampus and serum inflammatory factors in a rat model of poststroke anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang W

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Wen Zhang,1 Ruizhen Zhao,1 Xiaoli Li,1 Xia Cui,1 Zijun Zhao,1 Yingqiu Mao,2 Fengzhi Wu,3 Qisheng Tang1 1Department of Encephalopathy, The Third Affiliated Hospital, 2Center of Scientific Research, 3Center of Journals, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Chaoyang District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China Background: The Yi-nao-jie-yu decoction (YNJYD is a herbal preparation widely used in the clinics of traditional Chinese medicine and has been recently used as an important new therapeutic agent in poststroke anxiety (PSA. The neuroendocrine–immune system plays an important role in PSA mechanisms, although the modulating effects of YNJYD remain unknown. This study investigated the potential effects of YNJYD on the neuroendocrine–immune system in a rat model of PSA.Materials and methods: The PSA model was induced by injecting collagenase (type VII into the right globus pallidus, accompanied by empty water bottle stimulation for 2 weeks. The sham group and the PSA model group were gavaged with saline, while the treatment groups received buspirone (BuSpar or YNJYD. Behavior was evaluated with the open field test and elevated plus maze once a week. Pathological changes were observed by hematoxylin and eosin staining. Serum levels of tumor necrosis factor, interleukin (IL-6, adrenocorticotropic hormone, thyroid stimulating hormone, free triiodothyronine, free thyroxine, IL-1α, and cortisol were detected by radioimmunoassay. Expression of the γ-aminobutyric acid type A receptor (GABAAR α2 subunit was examined by Western blot and real-time polymerase chain reaction.Results: YNJYD-treated rats exhibited significantly better recovery than BuSpar-treated rats at 21 days and 28 days in the open field test and elevated plus maze. Hematoxylin and eosin staining revealed neural repair in the hippocampus in the treatment groups. Serum levels of IL-1α in the YNJYD group were significantly less than those in the model group and the Bu

  14. Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pokorná, Lucie; Huth, Radan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 119, 3-4 (2015), s. 639-652 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 ; RVO:67179843 Keywords : North-Atlantic-Oscillation * atmospheric circulation * winter temperature * variability modes * time variations * Icelandic low * precipitation * surface * frequency * Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.433, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-014-1116-0

  15. The refractometry use in the evaluation of type 'C' gasoline non-conformities; Uso da refratometria na avaliacao de nao conformidades da gasolina tipo 'C'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, K.M.; Andrade, J.M.; Severiano, M.L.; Medeiros, M.A.O.; Fernandes, N.S.; Fernandes, V.J. [Rio Grande do Norte Univ., Natal, RN (Brazil)]. E-mail: klecia.morais@bol.com.br

    2003-07-01

    The need of the creation of practical and efficient methods that can monitor the quality of the automotive fuels it is an important factor, because they should evaluate the physical-chemical properties of the fuels to guarantee your conformity. To determine these parameters of conformity, several regulars analyses are done in the gasoline type 'C', as the distillation and content of ethyl alcohol (AEAC). However, the present work has as objective uses the refractometry in the forecast of irregularities in the gasoline trying to establish a faster and efficient analysis method. (author)

  16. Effect of Zhen Nao Capsules on Consolidated Disturbance of Memory Induced by NaNO2 in Mice%珍脑胶囊对NaNO2所致记忆巩固障碍小鼠学习记忆能力的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈艳萍

    2009-01-01

    Objective To investigate the effects of Zhen Nao Capsules(ZN) on consolidated disturbance of memory in mice. Methods The memory deficits mice were induced by hypodermic injection of sodium nitrite(120mg·kg-1).Foraging maze and step-down tests were performed to evaluate the learning and memory of the deficits mice.Results ZN(2 000mg·kg-1 and 1 000 mg·kg-1) remarkably reduced the number of trials in labyrinth test and reduced the mistake times of step-down and prolonged step down latency in step-down tests. Conclusion It showed that ZN had a better improvement function on learning and memory in memory deficits mice.%目的 观察珍脑胶囊对亚硝酸钠(NaNO2)所致记忆巩固障碍小鼠学习记忆能力的影响.方法 采用皮下注射NaNO2制造记忆巩固障碍模型,通过迷宫试验和跳台试验,观察药物时模型小鼠学习记忆能力的影响.结果 珍脑胶囊可缩短迷宫试验中记忆巩固障碍小鼠的觅食时间;能够延长跳台试验中记忆巩固障碍小鼠的触电潜伏期,减少小鼠的错误次数.高、中剂量效果较好.结论 珍脑胶囊有改善学习记忆能力作用.

  17. Causas de remocao nao eletiva do cateter epicutaneo em neonatos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eny Dorea Paiva

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Objetivou-se descrever a incidência e as razões de remoção não eletiva do cateter epicutâneo em neonatos, verificando a associação com o sítio de inserção. Estudo de coorte prospectivo realizado em unidade de cuidado intensivo neonatal de um hospital privado terciário na cidade de São Paulo. Foram analisadas 266 inserções de cateter epicutâneo. A incidência de remoção não eletiva foi 39,1%. As complicações pós-inserção mais frequentes foram suspeita de infecção de corrente sanguínea relacionada ao cateter (25% e ruptura (23,1%. A maioria dos cateteres foi inserida através do hemisfério corporal direito (65%, membros superiores (77,1% e veias axilares (31,2%. Os resultados sugerem não haver associação entre a incidência de remoção não eletiva e o sítio de inserção do cateter epicutâneo em neonatos. Compete à Enfermagem implementar estratégias para a melhoria da prática assistencial a fim de diminuir a frequência de remoções não eletivas do cateter epicutâneo em neonatos.

  18. Spatial monsoon variability with respect to NAO and SO

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show ... to affect the Indian summer monsoon rainfall indi- ... Monthly composite picture of ESI during (a) positive (28 years) and (b) negative (25 years) tendency of ESI.

  19. Lesao óssea em leucemias agudas linfoblásticas tipo T e TIPO nao T / nao B

    OpenAIRE

    Martins, Fernando Lopes

    2013-01-01

    Resumo: O AUTOR APRESENTA OS RESULTADOS DO ESTUDO RADIOLÓGICO DE ESQUELETO DE 61 PACIENTES PORTADORES DE LEUCEMIA AGUDA LINFOBLÁSTICA, CORRELACIONANDO A PRESENÇA OU NÃO DE Lesões ÓSSEAS COM A CLASSIFICAÇÃO IMUNOLÓGICA DE LAL TIPO T E TIPO não T / não B

  20. Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter 2009/10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fereday, D R; Maidens, A; Arribas, A; Scaife, A A; Knight, J R

    2012-01-01

    Northern hemisphere winter 2009/10 was exceptional for atmospheric circulation: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was the lowest on record for over a century. This contributed to cold conditions over large areas of Eurasia and North America. Here we use two versions of the Met Office GloSea4 seasonal forecast system to investigate the predictability of this exceptional winter. The first is the then operational version of GloSea4, which uses a low top model and successfully predicted a negative NAO in forecasts produced in September, October and November 2009. The second uses a new high top model, which better simulates sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). This is particularly relevant for 2009/10 due to its unusual combination of a strong El Niño and an easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase, favouring SSW development. SSWs are shown to play an influential role in surface conditions, producing a stronger sea level pressure signal and improving predictions of the 2009/10 winter. (letter)

  1. Avaliacao da Relacao entre a Doenca Hepatica Nao Gordurosa e CAD utilizando TCMF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duran Efe

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Fundamento: Alguns fatores de risco para a aterosclerose são acompanhados pela doença hepática gordurosa não alcoólica (DHGNA. Desejamos usar a tomografia computadorizada multi-fatias (TCMF como a técnica para encontrar relação entre a DHGNA e a doença arterial coronariana (DAC. Objetivo: A relação entre a DHGNA e a DAC foi investigada através de TCMF. Métodos: Um total de 372 indivíduos com ou sem sintomas cardíacos, que foram submetidos à angiografia por TCMF, foram incluídos no estudo. Os pacientes foram divididos em dois grupos, de acordo com a presença da DHGNA. Os segmentos arteriais coronarianos foram avaliados visualmente via angiografia por TCMF. Com base no grau de estenose arterial coronariana, aqueles com placas ausentes ou mínimas foram considerados como normais, enquanto aqueles que apresentavam estenose de menos do que 50% e no mínimo uma placa foram considerados como portadores da doença arterial coronariana não obstrutiva (não-obsDAC. Os pacientes que apresentaram no mínimo uma placa e estenose arterial coronariana de 50% ou mais foram considerados como portadores de doença arterial coronariana obstrutiva (obsDAC. A DHGNA foi determinada de acordo com o protocolo de TCMF, utilizando a densidade hepática. Resultados: De acordo com a densidade hepática, o número de pacientes com doença hepática gordurosa não alcoólica (grupo 1 foi de 204 (149 homens, 54,8% e com fígado normal (grupos 2 foi de 168 (95 homens, 45.2%. Houve 50 (24,5% não-obsDAC e 57 (27,9% casos de obsDAC no Grupo 1, e 39 (23,2% não-obsDAC e 23 (13,7% casos de obsDAC no Grupo 2. Conclusões: O presente estudo utilizando TCMF demonstrou que a frequência da doença arterial coronariana em pacientes com NAFDL foi significativamente superior do que nos pacientes em NAFDL.

  2. Non conformance in fittings for critical environmental conditions; Conexoes nao conformes para trabalho em meios criticos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sgarbi, Mauricio [Promon Engenharia, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Zeemann, Annelise [Tecmetal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    Carbon steel fittings ASTM A105 and ASTM A234 WPB are widely applied for refinery piping and equipment and the detection, by a construction company, of a fitting manufacturing non conformance (NC) showed to be an unexpected problem of enormous dimension, since part of the plant was in startup conditions, with the NC fittings already welded, hydrostatically tested, painted and, in several lines, already thermally insulated. The challenge of treating the NC in a quick way with 100% confidence was even more difficult due to the metallurgical nature of the problem, not in the expertise of a construction company, which analyzed and decided about changing or accepting about 11,251 fittings of small diameter. This decision could impact directly in the refinery schedule for urgently running the unity. This work shows how the NC was detected, the extension of the problem that required field chemistry and hardness analysis of 7.425 parts, the metallurgical nature of the NC and the adopted treatment, considering that this unity presents aggressive environments and critical conditions like H2S. After a complex metallurgical study it was possible to change only 30% of the NC fittings, although some additional heat treatments were required to assure favorable conditions for piping use. (author)

  3. Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes

    OpenAIRE

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2013-01-01

    Herein I propose a multi-scale dynamical analysis to facilitate the physical interpretation of tide gauge records. The technique uses graphical diagrams. It is applied to six secular-long tide gauge records representative of the world oceans: Sydney, Pacific coast of Australia; Fremantle, Indian Ocean coast of Australia; New York City, Atlantic coast of USA; Honolulu, U.S. state of Hawaii; San Diego, U.S. state of California; and Venice, Mediterranean Sea, Italy. For comparison, an equivalent...

  4. Can children take advantage of nao gaze-based hints during gameplay?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mwangi, E.N.; Diaz, M.; Barakova, E.I.; Catala, A.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a study that analyzes the effects of robots' gaze hints on children's performance in a card-matching game. We conducted a within-subjects study, in which children played a card matching game "Memory" in the presence of a robot tutor in two sessions. In one session, the robot gave

  5. Naos, clima y glaciares en el Estrecho de Magallanes durante el siglo XVI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prieto, María del Rosario

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Not available.

    El objetivo de este trabajo es lograr una aproximación al clima y a los fenómenos de glaciación ocurridos en el Estrecho de Magallanes durante el siglo XVI y parte del XVII a través de registros históricos. Se complementan los resultados obtenidos por investigadores de otras disciplinas paleoclimáticas en el área, verificándose si las fuentes históricas corroboran las conclusiones de esos autores, quienes postulan un intervalo muy frío entre 1520 y 1670. Para realizar esta investigación se utilizaron los “diarios o relaciones de navegación” de los primeros marinos españoles que pasaron por el Estrecho, recopilados en su mayor parte en Archivos históricos españoles. A través de la técnica del análisis de contenido se verificó la estabilidad en el vocabulario referido al clima y los glaciares a lo largo de esas centurias y se calificó los eventos de acuerdo a su magnitud. Se determinaron diversas categorías de las cuales se han seleccionado precipitaciones sólidas y líquidas, temperatura, dirección del viento y ocurrencia de tormentas para analizar en este trabajo. Se estudió especialmente la presencia de témpanos en el Estrecho y las descripciones de los glaciares fueguinos y del sur de la Patagonia chilena como indicadores de bajas temperaturas. Se concluye que existen referencias directas a la presencia de témpanos proveniente de glaciares en el Estrecho, sólo en la segunda mitad del siglo XVI. El avance de los hielos supondría una acentuación de las condiciones de frío durante esa centuria, lo que puede ser corroborado por los datos de los navíos que consignan temperaturas estivales frías y muy frías en la vertiente pacífica. Estos datos coincidirían con los resultados de R. Villalba en cuanto a que el intervalo 1520 a 1670 fue uno de los más fríos de la Pequeña Edad Glaciar.

  6. Pulse combustors for unpulverized solid fuels; Combustor pulsante para solidos nao pulverizados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Marco Aurelio; Carvalho Junior, Joao Andrade de [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)

    1988-12-31

    This work presents results of performance evaluation of an experimental pulsating combustor developed to burn unpulverized solid fuels. The fuels tested were sized wood blocks and coal lumps. The results for coal show a clear maximum combustion efficiency as a function of fuel loading within the combustor. For an excess of air of 10%, a maximum combustion efficiency of 94% was obtained. (author) 38 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Non-aqueous Li- and Na-O2 batteries: Study and analysis of electrochemical processes

    OpenAIRE

    Landa Medrano, Imanol

    2016-01-01

    222 p. Las baterías M-oxígeno, siendo M un metal alcalino, son conocidas por su extraordinaria densidad energética teórica. En esta tesis se estudian en detalle las reacciones que tienen lugar en las baterías de litio y de sodio a fin de comprender su complejo funcionamiento. Para ello se emplean múltiples técnicas de caracterización, tanto electroquímica como de materiales. Una vez comprendido su funcionamiento, se proponen rutas y estrategias alternativas en el proceso de reducción y oxi...

  8. Asphaltenes analysis arising of non conventional oils; Analise de asfaltenos oriundos de petroleos nao convencionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Fernanda B. da; Fiorio, Paula G.P.; Guimaraes, Maria Jose O.C.; Seidl, Peter R. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Escola de Quimica

    2012-07-01

    The need to use heavy fractions in an efficient way in the production of nobler fractions has motivated the search for ways of separating the asphaltenes, since these molecules increase the viscosity of the fractions submitted to distillation, contribute to the formation of coke and to poisoning and deactivation of catalysts used in process such as cracking, reform, etc, besides provoking cloggings and blockages caused by its deposition, generating losses on the productivity and increases of the operational costs. This paper evaluates the influence of solvent blends (EQ-NP) in the selective extraction of constituents of three samples from Brazilian heavy crude. For the extraction process was used two solvent blends (N1P1 and N1P2). The solvent blend composed of N1P1 showed a higher selectivity in the extraction of aggregates than N1P2. The extracted fraction was characterized by Hydrogen Nuclear Magnetic Resonance ({sup 1}H-NMR) and revealed that the chemical species extracted from different blends exhibit very small differences. (author)

  9. Sensitivity of monthly streamflow forecasts to the quality of rainfall forcing: When do dynamical climate forecasts outperform the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, M.; Prudhomme, C.; Harrigan, S.; Smith, K. A.; Parry, S.

    2017-12-01

    Forecasting hydrological extremes is challenging, especially at lead times over 1 month for catchments with limited hydrological memory and variable climates. One simple way to derive monthly or seasonal hydrological forecasts is to use historical climate data to drive hydrological models using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. This gives a range of possible future streamflow given known initial hydrologic conditions alone. The degree of skill of ESP depends highly on the forecast initialisation month and catchment type. Using dynamic rainfall forecasts as driving data instead of historical data could potentially improve streamflow predictions. A lot of effort is being invested within the meteorological community to improve these forecasts. However, while recent progress shows promise (e.g. NAO in winter), the skill of these forecasts at monthly to seasonal timescales is generally still limited, and the extent to which they might lead to improved hydrological forecasts is an area of active research. Additionally, these meteorological forecasts are currently being produced at 1 month or seasonal time-steps in the UK, whereas hydrological models require forcings at daily or sub-daily time-steps. Keeping in mind these limitations of available rainfall forecasts, the objectives of this study are to find out (i) how accurate monthly dynamical rainfall forecasts need to be to outperform ESP, and (ii) how the method used to disaggregate monthly rainfall forecasts into daily rainfall time series affects results. For the first objective, synthetic rainfall time series were created by increasingly degrading observed data (proxy for a `perfect forecast') from 0 % to +/-50 % error. For the second objective, three different methods were used to disaggregate monthly rainfall data into daily time series. These were used to force a simple lumped hydrological model (GR4J) to generate streamflow predictions at a one-month lead time for over 300 catchments

  10. Construction of technological scenarios on the bioethanol production in Brazil, evaluation of the macroeconomic impacts and the risks of the forecast market not to concretize; Construcao de cenarios tecnologicos sobre a producao do bioetanol no Brasil, avaliacao dos impactos macroeconomicos e riscos do mercado previsto nao se concretizar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-10-15

    This chapter gives a view of the transformations that should occur as functions of the sugar cane culture expansion. In the first part, it is shown how it should behavior the bioethanol demand and the offer of sugar cane and the bio ethanol in the Brazil. The objective of the first part is to demonstrate that there exist full conditions for the brazilian cultivation industry to reach exportation goals and attends to other necessities of the economy. In the second part, it is analysed what would be the possible expansions of these scenarios on the brazilian economy, including the viewpoint of the regional perspective.

  11. The new Met Office strategy for seasonal forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewson, T. D.

    2012-04-01

    In October 2011 the Met Office began issuing a new-format UK seasonal forecast, called "The 3-month Outlook". Government interest in a UK-relevant product had been heightened by infrastructure issues arising during the severe cold of previous winters. At the same time there was evidence that the Met Office's "GLOSEA4" long range forecasting system exhibited some hindcast skill for the UK, that was comparable to its hindcast skill for the larger (and therefore less useful) 'northern Europe' region. Also, the NAO- and AO- signals prevailing in the previous two winters had been highlighted by the GLOSEA4 model well in advance. This presentation will initially give a brief overview of GLOSEA4, describing key features such as evolving sea-ice, a well-resolved stratosphere, and the perturbation strategy. Skill measures will be shown, along with forecasts for the last 3 winters. The new structure 3-month outlook will then be described and presented. Previously, our seasonal forecasts had been based on a tercile approach. The new format outlook aims to substantially improve upon this by illustrating graphically, and with text, the full range of possible outcomes, and by placing those outcomes in the context of climatology. In one key component the forecast pdfs (probability density functions) are displayed alongside climatological pdfs. To generate the forecast pdf we take the bias-corrected GLOSEA4 output (42 members), and then incorporate, via expert team, all other relevant information. Firstly model forecasts from other centres are examined. Then external 'forcing factors', such as solar, and the state of the land-ocean-ice system, are referenced, assessing how well the models represent their influence, and bringing in statistical relationships where appropriate. The expert team thereby decides upon any changes to the GLOSEA4 data, employing an interactive tool to shift, expand or contract the forecast pdfs accordingly. The full modification process will be illustrated

  12. A Study of Subseasonal Predictability of the Atmospheric Circulation Low-frequency Modes based on SL-AV forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruglova, Ekaterina; Kulikova, Irina; Khan, Valentina; Tischenko, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The subseasonal predictability of low-frequency modes and the atmospheric circulation regimes is investigated based on the using of outputs from global Semi-Lagrangian (SL-AV) model of the Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Science. Teleconnection indices (AO, WA, EA, NAO, EU, WP, PNA) are used as the quantitative characteristics of low-frequency variability to identify zonal and meridional flow regimes with focus on control distribution of high impact weather patterns in the Northern Eurasia. The predictability of weekly and monthly averaged indices is estimated by the methods of diagnostic verification of forecast and reanalysis data covering the hindcast period, and also with the use of the recommended WMO quantitative criteria. Characteristics of the low frequency variability have been discussed. Particularly, it is revealed that the meridional flow regimes are reproduced by SL-AV for summer season better comparing to winter period. It is shown that the model's deterministic forecast (ensemble mean) skill at week 1 (days 1-7) is noticeably better than that of climatic forecasts. The decrease of skill scores at week 2 (days 8-14) and week 3( days 15-21) is explained by deficiencies in the modeling system and inaccurate initial conditions. It was noticed the slightly improvement of the skill of model at week 4 (days 22-28), when the condition of atmosphere is more determined by the flow of energy from the outside. The reliability of forecasts of monthly (days 1-30) averaged indices is comparable to that at week 1 (days 1-7). Numerical experiments demonstrated that the forecast accuracy can be improved (thus the limit of practical predictability can be extended) through the using of probabilistic approach based on ensemble forecasts. It is shown that the quality of forecasts of the regimes of circulation like blocking is higher, than that of zonal flow.

  13. Seasonal streamflow forecast with machine learning and teleconnection indices in the context non-stationary climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haguma, D.; Leconte, R.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial and temporal water resources variability are associated with large-scale pressure and circulation anomalies known as teleconnections that influence the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. Teleconnection indices have been used successfully to forecast streamflow in short term. However, in some watersheds, classical methods cannot establish relationships between seasonal streamflow and teleconnection indices because of weak correlation. In this study, machine learning algorithms have been applied for seasonal streamflow forecast using teleconnection indices. Machine learning offers an alternative to classical methods to address the non-linear relationship between streamflow and teleconnection indices the context non-stationary climate. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), with teleconnection indices associated with North American climatology, have been used to forecast inflows for one and two leading seasons for the Romaine River and Manicouagan River watersheds, located in Quebec, Canada. The indices are Pacific-North America (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results showed that the machine learning algorithms have an important predictive power for seasonal streamflow for one and two leading seasons. The RF performed better for training and SVM generally have better results with high predictive capability for testing. The RF which is an ensemble method, allowed to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. The integration of teleconnection indices responds to the seasonal forecast of streamflow in the conditions of the non-stationarity the climate, although the teleconnection indices have a weak correlation with streamflow.

  14. "Kompyuter" versus "tien-nao" aneb Co stojí Ujgury přístup k prosperitě?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimeš, Ondřej

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 7 (2008), s. 16-19 ISSN 0543-7962 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z90210515 Keywords : Xinjiang * contemporary politics * language policy Subject RIV: AD - Politology ; Political Sciences

  15. Quantum effects due to coordinate non-inertial systems; Efeitos quanticos devidos a sistemas nao inerciais de coordenadas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Daniel

    1996-12-31

    In chapter 1 we make an introduction to quantum fields in curved spaces, mentioning something about fermions. Chapter 2 begins a brief introduction to General Relativity, and the calculation of the linearized limit to obtain Thirring`s metric, which is a first approximation to the Kerr metric. In Chapter 3 we calculate Dirac`s equation in Thirring`s space-time and work out the non relativistic limit obtaining the modifications in Schroedinger`s equation resulting from the geometry. Particularly, we observe the interference of a particle beam. And in Chapter 4, we present a revision of classical and quantum detectors and discuss the response of detectors in non-inertial motion, in particular, for uniform acceleration and uniform circular motion. The latter is known to yield and integral for the response function which has been so far carried out only numerically. We propose a semi-analytical solution for the spectrum of a circular moving detector. We consider c=1. (author) 27 refs., 4 figs.

  16. The sole risk operations from Brazilian exploration and production perspectives; As operacoes nao consensuais de E e P no Brasil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, Adauto Carneiro [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Area de Negocios Internacionais; Souza, Renata Barrouin Carvalho de [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Exploracao e Producao

    2004-07-01

    Considering that the Operations by Less Than All Parties are an exception to the general rule of the Joint Ventures that is to make the decisions and carry out activities according to the common decisions of the Parties in the JV (whether by majority of the Parties as it is established in the pass mark vote clause, or by unanimity), the aim of this paper is to analyze the reasons why it is necessary to have a provision in the Joint Operating Agreements to allow the possibility of conducting Operations by Less Than All Parties. This paper also intends to study the AIPN model form International Operating Agreement 1995 provisions about the subject, presenting a general overview about the proceedings established in the above mentioned model form in order to be allowed any Operations by Less Than All Parties. Furthermore, this paper intends to present and analyze some controversial subjects about the Operations by Less Than All Parties regarding the Brazilian legal system, such as the liability for the damages caused by an Exclusive Operation and the possibility and the consequences of an Additional Operator elected to carry out the exclusive operations. (author)

  17. Observed and simulated impacts of the summer NAO in Europe: implications for projected drying in the Mediterranean region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blade, Ileana; Fortuny, Didac [Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat de Fisica, Departament d' Astronomia i Meteorologia, Barcelona (Spain); Liebmann, Brant [CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO (United States); Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van [Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2012-08-15

    Climate models predict substantial summer precipitation reductions in Europe and the Mediterranean region in the twenty-first century, but the extent to which these models correctly represent the mechanisms of summertime precipitation in this region is uncertain. Here an analysis is conducted to compare the observed and simulated impacts of the dominant large-scale driver of summer rainfall variability in Europe and the Mediterranean, the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The SNAO is defined as the leading mode of July-August sea level pressure variability in the North Atlantic sector. Although the SNAO is weaker and confined to northern latitudes compared to its winter counterpart, with a southern lobe located over the UK, it significantly affects precipitation in the Mediterranean, particularly Italy and the Balkans (correlations of up to 0.6). During high SNAO summers, when strong anticyclonic conditions and suppressed precipitation prevail over the UK, the Mediterranean region instead is anomalously wet. This enhanced precipitation is related to the presence of a strong upper-level trough over the Balkans - part of a hemispheric pattern of anomalies that develops in association with the SNAO - that leads to mid-level cooling and increased potential instability. Neither this downstream extension nor the surface influence of the SNAO is captured in the two CMIP3 models examined (HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1), with weak or non-existent correlations between the SNAO and Mediterranean precipitation. Because these models also predict a strong upward SNAO trend in the future, the error in their representation of the SNAO surface signature impacts the projected precipitation trends. In particular, the attendant increase in precipitation that, based on observations, should occur in the Mediterranean and offset some of the non-SNAO related drying does not occur. Furthermore, the fact that neither the observed SNAO nor summer precipitation in Europe/Mediterranean region exhibits any significant trend so far (for either the full century or the recent half of the record) does not increase our confidence in these model projections. (orig.)

  18. Word Embeddings para la anotación automática de gestos aplicada a Nao

    OpenAIRE

    Almagro Cádiz, Mario

    2017-01-01

    En los últimos años, la integración progresiva de la robótica de servicios en los hogares ha despertado el interés de la comunidad científica por las interacciones de tipo robot-humano. Estudios recientes han arrojado nuevas líneas de investigació

  19. Avaliacao da espessura medio-intimal em pacientes com doenca renal cronica nao dialitica: estudo prospectivo de 24 meses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Gaspar Marcos

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introdução: O aumento da espessura média-intimal (EMI avaliada por ultrassom é um preditor de risco cardiovascular na população geral. Porém, em pacientes com doença renal crônica nos estágios iniciais, essa associação ainda não está bem estabelecida. Objetivo: Avaliar a associação EMI com a ocorrência de eventos cardiovasculares e mortalidade em pacientes nos estágios iniciais da doença renal crônica. Métodos: A análise post hoc de uma coorte de pacientes nos estágios 2-4 da DRC. Foram avaliados dados laboratoriais, ultrassom da artéria carótida e tomografia coronariana no início do estudo e a ocorrência de óbito, em seguimento por 24 meses. Resultados: Um total de 117 pacientes (57 ± 11 anos, 61% sexo masculino foram avaliados. A taxa de filtração glomerular foi 36 ± 17 mL/min, 96% dos pacientes eram hipertensos, 23% diabéticos e 27% obesos. Calcificação arterial coronariana esteve presente em 48% dos pacientes, sendo mais prevalente em pacientes nos estágios mais avançados da DRC (p = 0,02. EMI foi 0,6 mm (0,4-0,7 mm. Comparado aos pacientes com EMI < 0,6mm, aqueles com EMI ≥ 0,6 mm eram mais velhos (p = 0,001, apresentavam maior prevalência do sexo masculino (p = 0,001, menor taxa de filtração glomerular (p = 0,01 e maior proporção de pacientes com calcificação (p = 0,001. Não foi observada relação entre a espessura média-intimal e a ocorrência de evento cardiovascular e óbito. Conclusão: A espessura médio-intimal em pacientes DRC se associou à calcificação coronariana, mas não à ocorrência de eventos cardiovasculares e óbito, em um seguimento de 24 meses.

  20. Energy recycling: an innovative solution for unrecyclable plastic; Reciclagem energetica: uma solucao inovadora para o plastico nao reciclavel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Julyane Carolina; Oliveira, Magno Andre de; Pires, Pedro Henrique; Silva, Thuanye Peixoto; Rodrigues, Marcia [Centro Universitario de Belo Horizonte (UnBH), MG (Brazil)], e-mails: juhlorah@hotmail.com, marromar2004@yahoo.com.br

    2011-07-01

    This paper shows a new technology that is already used in over 35 countries with more than 750 plants in total and is still under study in Brazil: the energy recycling of plastic. Through studies, tables, comparisons and observations, have to analyze the plastic, chemical composition, the steps of material recycling and energy production, the final products obtained by recycling and gases released during the process. Thus, after highlighting how this technology is advantageous, it is expected to awaken to the reflection that it is feasible to use the recycling energy due to its great benefits environmental, social and economic shown the course of research. (author)

  1. Long-Range Forecasting in Support of Operations in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    station in the southwestern part of the Iberian Peninsula (Hurrell 2006). NOAA’s ESRL uses the former method to construct an NAO index (NAOI), and we...mission planning for both military and nonmilitary operations. This is especially true for countries that are susceptible to persistent climate ...variations, such as Pakistan. The environmental, economic, and political impacts of climate variations can be severe—particularly for countries that are

  2. Statistical-dynamic climate forecast for Europe and Germany. Final report; Statistisch-dynamische Klimavorhersage fuer Europa und Deutschland. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denhard, M.; Schoenwiese, C.D.

    2001-07-01

    Principal Correlation Pattern Analysis (PCPA) maps the local circulation, temperature and precipitation anomalies in the northern hemisphere in monthly resolution and permits an interpretation of their causes. Calculations are made for the El Nino phenomenon, NAO, and the quasi-11-year cycle of solar radiation variation. Especially the El Nino calculations show the efficiency of PCPA. [German] Mit Hilfe der Principal Correlation Pattern Analysis (PCPA) koennen die von verschiedenen Klimaantrieben erzeugten lokalen Zirkulations-, Temperatur- und Niederschlagsanomalien auf der Nordhemisphaere in monatlicher Aufloesung dargestellt und ursaechlich interpretiert werden. Diese Rechnungen wurden fuer das El Nino Phaenomen, die NAO und den quasi 11-jaehrigen Zyklus der solaren Strahlungsschwankungen durchgefuehrt. Insbesondere die Untersuchungen zu Wirkungen von El Nino auf Europa zeigen, dass die PCPA die Kopplungen eines Prozesses mit dem Klimasystem sehr genau beschreibt und somit die Voraussetzungen schafft, die Wirkungen dieses Klimaantriebs zu modellieren und ihn zur Vorhersage zu nutzen. Erste einfache Vorhersageexperimente fuer das europaeische Klima bestaetigen diese Aussage. (orig.)

  3. Effect of the caffeine on treated and non-treated plasmid DNA with stannic chloride; Efeito da cafeina em DNA plasmidial tratado e nao tratado com cloreto estanoso

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno, Silvana Ramos F. [Universidade do Estado, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Biologia. Dept. de Biofisica e Biometria]|[Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Faculdade de Ciencias Medicas. Curso de Pos-graduacao em Patologia Experimental; Mattos, Jose C.P. de; Dantas, Flavio; Araujo, Adriano Caldeira de; Bernardo-Filho, Mario [Universidade do Estado, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Biologia. Dept. de Biofisica e Biometria]. E-mail: bernardo@uerj.br

    2000-07-01

    Caffeine, a methilxantine drug is a component of coffee, tea, stimulants and other drinks. Caffeine inhibits phosphodiesterase leading to intracellular accumulation of cyclic AMP, blocks adenosine receptors, and increases the release of Ca{sup 2+}. We have studied the possible effect of caffeine in DNA plasmid treated or not with stannous chloride (SnCl{sub 2}). Previous evaluations of the effect of caffeine on the labeling of red blood cells and plasma proteins with technetium-99m have showed a decrease of % ATI in the insoluble fraction of plasma proteins. Samples of DNA were treated with SnCl{sub 2} (0 and 200{mu}g/ml) in 0.8% agarose. SnCl{sub 2} has induced break on DNA and caffeine has not showed effect on the DNA. This indicates that caffeine does not eliminate the oxidant action of SnCl{sub 2} and does not promote break in isolated DNA plasmid. (author)

  4. Temperature influence on biodiesel production by non-catalytic transesterification; Influencia da temperatura na producao de biodiesel por transesterificacao nao catalitica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Humberto N.M.; Oliveira, Thomas R; Sousa, Elisa M.B.D. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The main objective of this paper is to produce biodiesel using supercritical fluids through of the transesterification process without use of catalysts. It become easier the separation of the reaction products when compared with conventional method. In this work the influence of the temperature in the production of biodiesel from mamona oil was studied. Tree temperatures were studied (473.15 K, 523.15 K and 573.15 K) and the pressure (300 bar) and molar ratio (1:40) was keep constant during the process. Excess of Alcohol was used for this synthesis. The influence of temperature on the conversion and the reaction time was evaluated. The castor bean oil and biodiesel obtained were characterized in relation to their properties more significant. For results, higher conversions were found at higher temperatures (573.15 K), however can see a trend to the stability of reaction. The quality of the product was suitable for most properties evaluated. The equipment designed and built for this purpose was feasible but require some modifications to its optimization. The reaction of biodiesel production was confirmed, even without the addition of catalyst. It was the need to use a large excess of alcohol in relation to oil on this route without catalytic converters. In the case of the route of biodiesel production without the addition of catalysts, was felt the need to use excess alcohol in relation to the castor bean oil. (author)

  5. The generation and propagation of nonlinear waves in a reservoir; Geracao e propagacao de ondas nao-lineares em um reservatorio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreira, Roger Matsumoto; Mendes, Andre Avelino de Oliveira; Bacchi, Raphael David Aquilino [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia. Lab. de Dinamica dos Fluidos Computacional (LabCFD)], e-mail: roger@vm.uff.br, e-mail: andreavelinoom@gmail.com, e-mail: raphael@esss.com.br

    2006-07-01

    The present work aims to model numerically the generation and propagation of waves in a reservoir, represented by a two-dimensional impermeable box, with a flat horizontal bottom and two vertical walls. The horizontal or vertical harmonic motion is imposed at the container, which is partially filled with water, with two possible initial conditions for the free surface: still water or a stationary sinusoidal wave. Two numerical methods are employed in the solution of the boundary value problem. The first is based on solving an integral equation that arises from Cauchy's integral theorem for functions of a complex variable. The transient nonlinear free surface flow is simulated using a boundary integral method. Numerical results are validated by comparing them with classical analytical solutions. The second method uses the commercial code ANSYS CFX with its homogeneous free surface model. In this case, results are compared with experiments done by Bredmose et al. (2003). In both models, interesting features at the free surface are obtained and discussed. (author)

  6. Non-linear nuclear engineering models as genetic programming application; Modelos nao-lineares de engenharia nuclear como aplicacao de programacao genetica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domingos, Roberto P.; Schirru, Roberto; Martinez, Aquilino S. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia

    1997-12-01

    This work presents a Genetic Programming paradigm and a nuclear application. A field of Artificial Intelligence, based on the concepts of Species Evolution and Natural Selection, can be understood as a self-programming process where the computer is the main agent responsible for the discovery of a program able to solve a given problem. In the present case, the problem was to find a mathematical expression in symbolic form, able to express the existent relation between equivalent ratio of a fuel cell, the enrichment of fuel elements and the multiplication factor. Such expression would avoid repeatedly reactor physics codes execution for core optimization. The results were compared with those obtained by different techniques such as Neural Networks and Linear Multiple Regression. Genetic Programming has shown to present a performance as good as, and under some features superior to Neural Network and Linear Multiple Regression. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs., 1 tabs.

  7. Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma presenting as a single liver mass; Linfoma nao-Hodgkin apresentando-se como massa hepatica unica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peixoto, Mila Correia Gois; Peixoto Filho, Anibal Araujo Alves; D' Ippolito, Giuseppe [Hospital Sao Luiz, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de US/TC/RM]. E-mail: scoposl@uol.com.br; Ribeiro, Alessandra Caivano Rodrigues [Hospital Sao Luiz, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Diagnostico por Imagem

    2009-01-15

    Objective: to describe the main imaging findings of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma presenting as a single liver mass. Materials and methods: a retrospective study was developed with analysis of cases where a single liver mass was observed at ultrasonography, computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, and histologically diagnosed as non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The studies were reviewed by two observers in consensus. Results: three male patients in the fifth decade of life, with non-specific clinical manifestations and single liver mass diagnosed as non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were identified. A hepatic lesion with target sign was observed at ultrasonography in all of the cases. At computed tomography, all the patients presented a heterogeneous, hypodense mass with a ring enhancement. At magnetic resonance imaging, the lesions were heterogeneous and hypointense on T1-weighted and hyperintense on T2-weighted images. Additionally, a ring enhancement was observed in all of the cases after contrast injection. At the moment of the diagnosis, none of the patients presented lymphadenomegaly or involvement of other solid viscera. Conclusion: the diagnosis of hepatic lymphoma should be considered in the presence of a ring-enhanced single liver mass. (author)

  8. Imaging of acquired non-traumatic cochlear lesions: iconographic essay; Avaliacao por imagem das lesoes cocleares adquiridas (nao-traumaticas): ensaio iconografico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Marcelo de Mattos; Gonzaga, Juliana Gontijo [Clinica Axial - Centro de Imagem, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)]. E-mail: cidbh@cidbh.com.br; marcelogarcia@superig.com.br

    2006-04-15

    Different non-traumatic acquired cochlear lesions are shown in this article with imaging methods. They may be responsible for neuro sensorial hearing loss or vertigo. The method of choice is computed tomography when evaluating the osseous labyrinth whereas magnetic resonance imaging has superior resolution in the studies of the membranaceous labyrinth. (author)

  9. Computer software for linear and nonlinear regression in organic NMR; Programa de computador para regressao linear e nao linear em R.M.N. organica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canto, Eduardo Leite do; Rittner, Roberto [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica

    1992-12-31

    Calculation involving two variable linear regressions, require specific procedures generally not familiar to chemist. For attending the necessity of fast and efficient handling of NMR data, a self explained and Pc portable software has been developed, which allows user to produce and use diskette recorded tables, containing chemical shift or any other substituent physical-chemical measurements and constants ({sigma}{sub T}, {sigma}{sup o}{sub R}, E{sub s}, ...) 9 refs., 1 fig.

  10. Non conventional empirical relations for estimating compressional-wave sonic logs; Relacoes empiricas nao-convencionais para estimativa de perfis sonicos de ondas compressionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Augusto, Fabricio de O.A. [Observatorio Nacional (ON), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Curso de Pos-graduacao em Geofisica; Martins, Jorge L. [Observatorio Nacional (ON), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao da Area de Geofisica

    2008-07-01

    We apply least-squares regression using non-conventional empirical relations for estimating compressional-wave sonic logs (DTP). We investigate the applicability of five expressions which involve exponential functions, with arguments representing effective porosity ({phi}e) estimated from density logs, shaliness (V{sub clay}) estimated from gamma-ray logs (GR) and electrical resistivity (R{sub ILD}) measured by the deep-induction logging tool (ILD). First, we use such physical properties individually, i.e., as the dependence parameter of compressional-wave velocities (V{sub P}), in the argument of the exponential function; then, we combine some of these properties in order to simulate the known interdependency among them. In order to test our methodology, we adopt two vertical wells - hereafter named Poco-A and Poco-B - from 'Campo Escola Namorado', with information of all geophysical well logs necessary to our study in the turbiditic interval from 2950 e 3150 m. In Poco-A, the best fit obtained through least squares for compressional-wave velocities was V{sub P} = 4.657 exp[.1.488 {phi}e - 0.986 V{sub clay} + 5.022 {phi}e V{sub clay} ], with correlation coefficient r = 0.81; in Poco-B, we found V{sub P} 4.209 exp[- 0.658 {phi}e - 0.430 V{sub clay} + 6.620 x 10.4 R{sub ILD} - 0.035 {phi}e V{sub clay} R{sub ILD}], with correlation coefficient r = 0.52. These two non-conventional empirical models take into account the effects of the interdependence between effective porosity, shaliness and electrical resistivity of the rock on Vp (i.e., they incorporate non-linear effects), becoming alternative models for predicting the sonic logs that are incomplete and/or absent in the data set 'Campo Escola Namorado'. (author)

  11. Rural residential energy consumption not electrified in the Municipality of Petrolina-PE, Brazil; Consumo energetico residencial rural nao eletrificado do municipio de Petrolina-PE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borges Neto, Manuel Rangel; Lopes, Luiz Carlos Nascimento [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica de Petrolina (CEFET/PET), CE (Brazil); Carvalho, Paulo Cesar Marques de [Universidade Federal do Ceara (PPGEE/UFC), Fortaleza (Brazil). Programa de Pos Graduacao em Engenharia Eletrica

    2006-07-01

    This paper brings a study about the energetic profile consumption of the residential rural off-grid population in Petrolina- PE municipality. A community was chose as a sample and trough some interviews it was possible to get enough data to estimate the energetic consumption of this segment in the county. In conclusion it has a specific annual consumption of 0,125 tep/hab, 5.9% higher than the Brazilian average and that the firewood is the source to 91,87% of the energy final use. (author)

  12. Study of properties of Pvdf aged and non aged in petroleum; Estudo das propriedades de PVDF envelhecido e nao envelhecido em petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, G.L.; Costa, M.F. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Metalurgica e de Materiais], e-mail: geovaniolo@metalmat.ufrj.br

    2010-07-01

    The use polymer materials in complex structure such as flexible risers to offshore application is increasingly on the rise. One the materials used in these structures is poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF). Attentive to the challenges found in the environments in which these structures are employed, PVDF copolymer samples were prepared by compression molding. After, materials were aged in petroleum at 80 deg C to assess effect of fluid in polymer. Characterization of samples was carried out by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and tensile stress according to ASTM D 638. Instrumented indentation testing applying Vickers indenter was used to assess the effect of petroleum in PVDF. (author)

  13. Non linear dynamic of Langmuir and electromagnetic waves in space plasmas; Dinamica nao linear de ondas de Langmuir e eletromagneticas em plasmas espaciais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guede, Jose Ricardo Abalde

    1995-11-01

    The aim of this work is to study the nonlinear dynamics of Langmuir and electromagnetic waves in space plasmas. Firstly, the generalized Zakharov equations are derived which are used to study the hybrid parametric instability involving the generation of daughter Langmuir, electromagnetic and ion-acoustic waves induced by two counter-propagating Langmuir pump waves with different amplitudes based on a coupled dispersion relation. Secondly, starting from the generalized Zakharov equations the linear and nonlinear coupled mode theories of three-wave and four-wave parametric interactions are developed, respectively. In three-waves processes, a Langmuir wave decays into another Langmuir wave and an ion-acoustic wave (electrostatic parametric decay) or into an electromagnetic wave and an ion-acoustic wave (electromagnetic parametric decay). In four-wave (modulational) processes, the interaction involves two wave triplets: in the decay triplet a pump wave couples with a low-frequency wave to generate a Stokes wave, and in the fusion triplets: in the decay triplet a pump wave couples with a low-frequency wave to generate a Stokes wave, and in the fusion triplet the coupling of a pump wave with a low-frequency wave generate an anti-Stokes wave. These modulational processes are convective and resonant processes wherein the low-frequency modes are Eigenmodes of plasma and are known as the stimulated modulational processes. Four such processes are investigated in this thesis: two with Langmuir pump waves (electrostatic and hybrid stimulated modulation processes) and the other two with electromagnetic pump waves (stimulated modulation Brillouin scattering and electromagnetic stimulated modulation process). Applications of the theoretical results in space plasmas are discussed. In particular, it is shown that the electrostatic and electromagnetic parametric decay processes of Langmuir waves can model the generation and modulation of radio emissions and Langmuir waves in the solar wind, both in the interplanetary space as well as in the upstream regions of some planets, and can explain some observational characteristics. (author) 95 refs., 52 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Unconventional cells of TiO2 doped with erbium; Celulas nao convencionais de TiO2 dopado com erbio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro, P.C.; Campos, R.D.; Oliveira, A.S.; Wellen, R., E-mail: pollyana@cear.ufpb.edu.br [Universidade Federal da Paraiba (UFPB), Joao Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Diniz, V.C.S.; Costa, A.C.F.M. da [Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG), PB (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia de Materiais

    2016-07-01

    The technology used in TiO{sub 2} solar cells is in constant improvement, new configurations have been developed, aiming practicality and leading to efficiency increase of photovoltaic devices. This paper proposes a new technology for the production of solar cells in order to investigate a better utilization of solar spectrum of TiO2 doped with erbium (Er{sup 3+}), proven by energetic conversion. The Ti{sub 0,9}Er{sub 0,1}O2 system was obtained by Pechini method. Nanoparticles have a crystallite size 65.30 nm and surface area 118.48 m{sup 2}/g. These characteristics are essential for the formation of the film to be deposited on the conductive glass substrate constituting the cell's photoelectrode. The other side of the cell is the platinum counter electrode. The cell will have the faces sealed by a thermoplastic and, finally the electrolyte will be inserted, then they will be electrically evaluated through energy efficiency and confronted with the literature data base. (author)

  15. Inspection of non-piggable pipelines at PETROBRAS-UN Bahia; Inspecao de dutos nao-pigaveis na PETROBRAS-UN Bahia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Luis F.C.; Lopes, Paulo R. [PETROBRAS, Salvador, BA (Brazil). Unidade de Negocios da Bahia

    2005-07-01

    PETROBRAS has made a huge effort to inspect and rehabilitate its pipeline net, mainly over the past 10 years. Currently, E and P inspection teams are being challenged to find feasible solutions for the inspection of non-piggable pipelines, so named because they have unsuitable geometry and/or operating conditions for usual in-line inspections. Inside this pipeline category, flow lines, injection and distribution lines and even non-metallic pipelines may be highlighted. This paper presents the results of tests and developments of new inspection tools for the inspection of non piggable pipelines, future tests to be performed in PETROBRAS/E and P Bahia (UN-BA) and some inspection cases in which the operating conditions hinder the run of smart pigs. (author)

  16. Study of the porosity of synthetic sandstones by nondestructive nuclear techniques; Estudo da porosidade de arenitos sinteticos por tecnicas nucleares nao destrutivas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, Leonardo Carmezini

    2008-07-01

    In this paper, nuclear techniques have been used to describe structural characteristics of ceramic samples. These samples were produced to serve as simulates of sandstones and their mainly component was silica (SiO{sub 2}). Three sets of these samples with different characteristics were analyzed with the gamma ray transmission and the X-ray microtomography. They had the function to describe parameters as porosity point to point and total average porosity, for the transmission case, and 2D sections average porosity, total average porosity and size porous distribution for microtomography, as well as to investigate possible irregularities in bulk sample. The experimental set up for the gamma ray transmission technique consisted of: a 2 x 2 crystal NaI(Tl) detector, an {sup 241}Am radioactive source (59.54 keV, 100 mCi), an automatic micrometric table for the sample XZ movement and standard gamma spectrometry electronics. Lead collimators with 2 mm diameter were placed on the source way out and on the detector entrance. The microtomographic measurements were done with a Skyscan system, model 1172, with a X-ray tube with 20-100 kV of voltage range and a CCD camera. Employing gamma ray transmission method was possible to obtain overall porosity values from 25.8 to 34.0 % and from 24.8 to 29.2 % for samples with parallelepiped and cylinder shape, respectively, for ceramic I set; from 58.5 to 61.0 % and from 57.1 to 61.7 % for the same geometric shape of ceramic II set. The samples analyzed by the microtomography achieved resolutions of 1.73 {mu}m, 0.64 {mu}m and 1.28 {mu}m for samples of ceramic set I, II and III, respectively. This methodology provided average total porosity values from 26.6 to 29.4 %, from 48.4 to 51.0 % and from 28.2 to 30.6 % to I, II and III ceramic sets, respectively. The porous size profiles of each ceramic sample were also measured. (author)

  17. Prevalencia de habitos de succao nao nutritivos em pre-escolares e a percepcao dos pais sobre sua relacao com maloclusoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clea Adas Saliba Garbin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo transversal e descritivo objetivou verificar a prevalência de hábitos de sucção em pré-escolares e a percepção dos pais sobre a relação com a ocorrência de maloclusões. A população do estudo constituiu-se por uma amostra representativa de pais de pré-escolares de 4 meses a 6 anos de idade. Utilizou-se um questionário semiestruturado, composto por questões abertas e fechadas, referentes à frequência e conhecimentos dos pais frente aos hábitos de sucção não nutritivos. Dos 356 participantes da pesquisa, 70,8% afirmaram que as crianças apresentavam algum hábito bucal, sendo a sucção de chupeta o mais frequente (45,6%. Apesar da grande maioria dos pesquisados (97,1% relatarem saber que os hábitos podiam causar prejuízo aos dentes, 70,2% deles já haviam oferecido chupeta à criança, na maioria das vezes para acalmá-la (61,8%. Houve associação estatisticamente significativa entre a oferta da chupeta à criança e o conhecimento sobre a relação da presença de hábitos não nutritivos e a ocorrência de maloclusão (p < 0,0001 e Qui-quadrado = 60,123. A prevalência de hábitos bucais na população estudada é alta e, apesar da maioria dos pais saberem que o hábito de sucção de chupeta pode causar danos à saúde bucal, ofertavam a chupeta a fim de acalmar a criança.

  18. Non destructive method to follow the phase sigma in a duplex stainless steel; Metodologia nao destrutiva para acompanhamento da fase sigma, em um aco inoxidavel duplex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, E.M.; Andrade, A.L.S. Souza; Fialho, W.M.L.; Araujo, B.R., E-mail: edgard@ifpb.edu.br [Instituto Federal de Educacao Ciencia e Tecnologia da Paraiba (IFPB), Joao Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Silva, J.H.R.; Leite, Josinaldo P.; Silva, Eloy M. [Instituto Federal de Educacao Ciencia e Tecnologia do Ceara (IFCE), CE (Brazil); Leite, Joao P. [Universidade Federal da Paraiba (UFPB), PB (Brazil)

    2014-07-01

    Duplex stainless steels are subject to embrittlement due to the formation of sigma phase, which is one with the greatest effect of weakening because they are rich in chromium and deplete the matrix of this element. In this paper, a non-destructive methodology based on measurements of Hall voltage, is presented for monitoring the formation of sigma phase at temperatures of 800 deg C and 900 deg C. Different field intensities are generated by an electromagnet and the flow of field lines is detected by a Hall effect sensor. Hall voltage measurements are proportional to the formation of sigma phase generated by different times of aging methods. The results are correlated with results of microscopic, hardness and X-ray diffraction. It was showed that exist a correlation between the Hall voltage and the amount of sigma phase. The formation of this phase influences the signal voltage by reducing the voltage. (author)

  19. Sistema inteligente con visión artificial para el reconocimiento de piezas mecánicas en el Robot NAO

    OpenAIRE

    Cadena Castro, Lenin Marcel; Heredia López, Jonathan Alejandro

    2018-01-01

    This document details the construction and operation of an intelligent system with artificial vision, this is composed of two algorithms: first it is recognition and identification of mechanical parts through Hu's invariant moments and an artificial neural network in MATLAB software. Second is based on the identification of color patterns through the OpenCV library in Python for robot orientation. It do an intercommunication between MATLAB-Python software through the VSP program (Virtual Seri...

  20. Impacts of production of hydrocarbons in Campos Basin: missing or not detected; Impactos da producao de hidrocarbonetos na Bacia de Campos: ausentes ou nao detectados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Carolina E. [Instituto Brasileiro de Meio Ambiente e Recursos Naturais Renovaveis (CGPEG/DILIC/IBAMA), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao Geral de Petroleo e Gas. Diretoria de Licenciamento; Gama, Bernardo A. Perez da [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niteroi, RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    According to the Brazilian legislation, the Environmental Impacts Monitoring Plan is one of the requirements of the environmental licensing to offshore oil and gas production activities. The Monitoring Plan's structure is based upon sampling and evaluation of numerous parameter settings in water and sediment compartments, while the conclusion as to the existence or absence of impact is obtained after statistical analysis of the results. The aim of this work was to evaluate the methodological adequacy of monitoring and to calculate the statistical power of tests applied with the purpose to determine the reliability of their findings. Experiences in other countries like Australia have shown that this is an important instrument in preparing an effective environmental study regarding the detection of impacts. In Brazil, this is the first initiative to critically evaluate the results of reports of environmental monitoring originated from the licensing of hydrocarbons production activities. Campaign reports forwarded to the environmental agency in charge, i.e., the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), and the selected ventures are located in the Campos Basin and have different operating companies. The results were both relevant and concerning. All monitoring reports confirmed the absence of alterations or impacts on the biotic media for sediment compartments, but the greater statistical power did not exceed 25% for a great magnitude impact. Thus it was concluded that if the oil production activity has caused alterations or impacts to bentonic organisms, the carried out monitoring was inefficient to detect them even if they were of great magnitude. This analysis is expected to be an instrument for future changes in environmental licensing procedures e for the improvement of the environmental public management in Brazil. (author)

  1. A realistic approach of the quantum non-locality and their experimental consequences; Uma abordagem realistica da nao-localidade quantica e suas consequencias experimentais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryff, Luiz Carlos Bandeira

    1992-01-01

    A realistic approach to quantum nonlocality is proposed, and four experiments that can be used to test this approach, using pairs of correlated photons are discussed. The first experiment proposed would allow us to investigate the role of the interaction of a quantum system with a macroscopic apparatus (detector) in the so-called collapse of the state vector. The second would investigate the interaction with a polarizer. Following the line of the second, the third experiment raises questions concerning the partial collapse of the state vector. The fourth suggests ways of investigating some possible properties of the superluminal interaction needed to explain nonlocality according to realism. The extension of this approach to include pairs of photons produced via parametric down-conversion of light is discussed. (author). 57 refs, 19 figs.

  2. An automatic approach for nondestructive radiographic inspection of pipeline weld joint; Uma abordagem automatica aplicada a inspecao radiografica nao-destrutiva de soldas em tubulacoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Felisberto, Marcelo K.; Schneider, Guilherme A.; Centeno, Tania M.; Arruda, Lucia V.R. de [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica do Parana, Curitiba, PR (Brazil). CPGEI - Programa de Pos-graduacao em Engenharia Eletrica e Informatica Industrial

    2005-07-01

    The current work contributes to the research in the area of pipelines non-destructive testing by presenting new methodologies for the automatic analysis of welds radiographs. Object recognition techniques based on genetic algorithms were used for the automatic weld bead detection. In addiction, an image digital filter was also tested in the weld bead images and, as a result, supposed defects are highlighted, making them easier to be detected. These methodologies were tested for 120 digital radiographs from carbon steel pipeline welded joints. These images were acquired by a storage phosphor system, using double-wall radiographic exposing technique with single-wall radiographic viewing, according to the ASME V code. As a result, even human vision hard-perceptible defects are automatically highlighted and extracted from the whole image to be separately analyzed. (author)

  3. Restoration in non nutrient medium: relative importance of some separation genetic markers; Restauracao em meio nao nutriente: importancia relativa de alguns marcadores geneticos de reparacao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bezerra, R J.A.

    1981-12-31

    In order to check whether the increase of celular viability observed in cultures of Escherichia coli and Salmonella typhimurium, irradiated with ultraviolet and incubated in non nutrient medium, would be due to cell multiplication, and/or repair we applied a Statistical Fluctuation Test, based on Poisson Distribution. Utilizing macromolecules in strains that show true liquid holding recovery (LHR) or cell multiplication. Our results show that cell multiplication and not repair occurs in non nutrient medium for E.coli AB2470 (rrecB21), E.coli JG112 (polA1) an in the {Delta}uvrB mutant of S.typhimurium. In E.coli JG112, the multiplication rate is higher when thymine is added to the non nutrient medium, due to the auxotrophism of this strain. In E.coli lexB30 mutant, we observed repair in non nutrient medium (LHR) and cell multiplication, while in E.coli lexA1 mutant only LHR was observed. Studies of macromolecules degradation indicate that the final products are, probably reutilized by the cells, creating possibility of multiplication and/or repair. (author).

  4. Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

    2008-12-01

    We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is

  5. Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried

    2018-01-01

    Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

  6. The Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Tropospheric Distributions of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowland, K. E.; Doherty, R. M.; Hodges, K.

    2015-12-01

    The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the tropospheric distributions of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been quantified. The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis, a combined meteorology and composition dataset for the period 2003-2012 (Innes et al., 2013), is used to investigate the composition of the troposphere and lower stratosphere in relation to the location of the storm track as well as other meteorological parameters over the North Atlantic associated with the different NAO phases. Cyclone tracks in the MACC Reanalysis compare well to the cyclone tracks in the widely-used ERA-Interim Reanalysis for the same 10-year period (cyclone tracking performed using the tracking algorithm of Hodges (1995, 1999)), as both are based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS). A seasonal analysis is performed whereby the MACC reanalysis meteorological fields, O3 and CO mixing ratios are weighted by the monthly NAO index values. The location of the main storm track, which tilts towards high latitudes (toward the Arctic) during positive NAO phases to a more zonal location in the mid-latitudes (toward Europe) during negative NAO phases, impacts the location of both horizontal and vertical transport across the North Atlantic and into the Arctic. During positive NAO seasons, the persistence of cyclones over the North Atlantic coupled with a stronger Azores High promotes strong horizontal transport across the North Atlantic throughout the troposphere. In all seasons, significantly more intense cyclones occur at higher latitudes (north of ~50°C) during the positive phase of the NAO and in the southern mid-latitudes during the negative NAO phase. This impacts the location of stratospheric intrusions within the descending dry airstream behind the associated cold front of the extratropical cyclone and the venting of low-level pollution up into the free troposphere within

  7. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  8. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  9. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  10. On the dynamics of an extreme rainfall event in northern India in 2013

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    39

    htm#nao). North-. 12 eastern Africa, Karakoram regions are also influenced by NAO; and rainfall occurs during the. 13 negative phase of NAO (McHugh et al., 2001; Archer et al., 2004). Many studies have also shown. 14 that NAO can influence ...

  11. Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gröger, Joachim; Rumohr, Heye

    2006-05-01

    Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m - 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.

  12. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  13. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  14. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  15. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  16. Simulation of ferric ions transfer in dosemeter Fricke-Xylenol-Gel in means no homogeneous; Simulacao da difusao de ions ferricos em dosimetros Fricke-Xilenol-Gel em meios nao homogeneos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milani, Caio J.; Bevilacqua, Joyce da Silva, E-mail: caio.milani@usp.br, E-mail: joyce@ime.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Instituto de Matematica e Estatistica. Departamento de Matematica Aplicada; Cavinato, Christianne C.; Rodrigues Junior, Orlando; Campos, Leticia L., E-mail: rodrijr@ipen.br, E-mail: Icrodri@ipen.br, E-mail: ccavinato@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (lPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Gerencia de Metrologia das Radiacoes

    2013-11-01

    Dosimetry in three dimensions using Fricke-Xilenol-Gel dosimeters (FXG) allows the confirmation and a better understanding of a treatment by Radiotherapy. The technique involves the assessment of the irradiated volumes by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or optical-CT. On both cases, the time elapsed between the irradiation and the measurement is an important factor in the quality of results. The quality of the images can be compromised by the mobility of the ferric ions (Fe{sup 3+}), formed during the the interaction of the radiation with the matter, increasing the uncertainty in the determination of the isodoses in the volume. In this work, the phenomenon of the diffusion of the ferric ions formed by an irradiated region is simulated in a bidimensional domain. The dynamic of the Fe{sup 3+} in Fricke-Gel is modeled by a parabolic partial differential equation and solved by the ADI-Peaceman-Rachford algorithm. Stability and consistency of the method guarantee the convergence of the numerical solution for a pre-defined error magnitude, based on choices for the discretization values of time and space. Homogeneous and non-homogeneous cases are presented considering an irradiated region and a physical barrier that prevents the movement of the ions, on the non-homogeneous case. Graphical visualizations of the phenomenon are presented for better understanding of the process. (author)

  17. Improvement of routes and production of CaSO{sub 4}-based dosimeters with unusual doping; Aprimoramento de rotas e producao de dosimetros a base de CaSO{sub 4} com dopagens nao usuais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Junot, Danilo Oliveira

    2017-07-01

    The widespread use of ionizing radiation in medicine and industry, associated with the known risks that this type of radiation can cause, has motivated the search for new radiation detectors, seeking improvements in the dosimetric characteristics and in the cost of production in comparison with commercial dosimeters disseminated. The motivation of this work is, therefore, to produce new thermoluminescent detectors through improved routes. Unusual elements in CaSO{sub 4} matrix doping, such as terbium (Tb) and ytterbium (Yb), were used as dopants in this matrix, as well as the europium (Eu), the thulium (Tm) and the silver (Ag), resulting in samples of CaSO{sub 4}:Eu,Tb, CaSO{sub 4}:Tb,Yb, CaSO{sub 4}:Tm,Ag and CaSO{sub 4}:Eu,Ag that were prepared by means of an adaptation of the method developed by Yamashita (1971). The route of synthesis is based on the mixture of calcium carbonate (CaCO{sub 3}) and dopant oxide (except for silver, incorporated in the form of metallic nanoparticles) in a solution of sulfuric acid. The mixture is heated until all the acid evaporates and only the powder of the material remains. In this route, the sulfuric acid is collected and can be reused. The phosphors produced were characterized by X-ray diffraction and radioluminescence techniques. The silver particles, produced by the polyol method, were characterized by scanning electron microscopy. Composites were obtained from the addition of Teflon to the phosphors. The thermoluminescence (TL) and the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) of the new materials produced were investigated. Thermoluminescent characteristics such as sensitivity, linearity, reproducibility, minimum detectable dose, kinetic order and fading were evaluated and discussed. The CaSO{sub 4}:Tb,Eu composites showed TL glow curves with peaks at temperatures of 170 °C, 270 °C and 340 °C. The CaSO{sub 4}:Tb,Yb composites presented TL glow curves with peaks at temperatures of 90 °C, 160 °C, 240 °C and 340 °C. CaSO{sub 4}:Tm showed peaks at temperatures of 140 °C and 225 °C and the CaSO{sub 4}:Tm,Ag presented peaks at temperatures of 140 °C, 280 °C and 380 °C. All composites showed a linear and reproducible dose response. The TL emission spectrum of the composites was also evaluated. The samples of calcium sulfate doped with europium and silver particles (CaSO{sub 4}:Eu,Ag) showed great potential for applicability in the OSL dosimetry. (author)

  18. No fluorinated compounds in the uranium conversion process: risk analysis and proposition of pictograms; Os compostos nao fluorados nos processos da conversao do uranio: analise de riscos e proposicao de pictogramas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeronimo, Adroaldo Clovis; Oliveira, Wagner dos Santos, E-mail: acejota18@yahoo.com.br, E-mail: oliveira@feq.unicamp.br [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Quimica; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de, E-mail: araquino@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2012-03-15

    The plants comprising the chemical conversion of uranium, which are part of the nuclear fuel cycle, present some risks, among others, because are associated with the non-fluorinated compounds handled in these processes. This study is the analysis of the risks associated with these compounds, i e, the non-fluorinated reactants and products, handled in different chemical processing plants, which include the production of uranium hexafluoride, while emphasizing the responsibilities and actions that fit to the chemical engineer with regard to minimizing risks during the various stages. The work is based on the experience gained during the development and mastery of the technology of production of uranium hexafluoride, the IPEN/ CNEN-SP, during the '80s, with the support of COPESP -Navy of Brazil. (author)

  19. Unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of a red-yellow podzolic soil in the Northern Zona da Mata of Pernambuco State - Brazil; Condutividade hidraulica nao saturada de um solo podzolico vermelho amarelo da Zona da Mata, Norte de Pernambuco

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maciel Netto, A

    1994-08-01

    The determination of the hydraulic conductivity of a Red-Yellow Podzolic Soil was carried out during an experiment in a plot measuring 3.5 m x 3.5 m, at the Experimental Station of Itapirema, Goiania, in Pernambuco State, Brazil. The internal drainage method proposed by Hillel (1972) was used to obtain the hydraulic conductivity as a function of soil water content, K({theta}), in the three characteristic horizons of the soil. Three neutron probes were used for measuring the humidity, that was determined by a calibration curve. Three characteristic horizons of the Red-Yellow Podzolic Soil were investigated for hydraulic conductivity. The sandy A horizon, with large pores, has a high conductivity while the B1t horizon, with a massive structure and few visible pores, has a low infiltration rate. The hydraulic dynamics of the B2 horizon is more complex due to its heterogeneity. (author). 79 refs, 17 figs, 11 tabs.

  20. Evaluation of the Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) in dose calculation for fields with non-uniform fluences considering heterogeneity correction; Avaliacao do Algoritmo Analitico Anisotropico (AAA) no calculo de dose para campos com fluencia nao uniforme considerando correcao de heterogeneidade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bornatto, P.; Funchal, M.; Bruning, F.; Toledo, H.; Lyra, J.; Fernandes, T.; Toledo, F.; Marciao, C., E-mail: pricila_bornatto@yahoo.com.br [Hospital Erasto Gaertner (LPCC), Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Departamento de Radioterapia

    2014-08-15

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the calculation of dose distribution AAA (Varian Medical Systems) for fields with non-uniform fluences considering heterogeneity correction. Five different phantoms were used with different density materials. These phantoms were scanned in the CT BrightSpeed (©GE Healthcare) upon the array of detectors MAPCHECK2 TM (Sun Nuclear Corporation) and irradiated in a linear accelerator 600 CD (Varian Medical Systems) 6MV and rate dose 400MU/min with isocentric setup. The fluences used were exported from IMRT plans, calculated by ECLIPSE™ planning system (Varian Medical Systems), and a 10x10 cm{sup 2} field to assess the heterogeneity correction for uniform fluence. The measured dose distribution was compared to the calculated by Gamma analysis with approval criteria of 3% / 3 mm and 10% threshold. The evaluation was performed using the software SNCPatient (Sun Nuclear Corporation) and considering absolute dose normalized at maximum. The phantoms best performers were those with low density materials, with an average of 99.2% approval. Already phantoms with plates of higher density material presented various fluences below 95% of the points approved. The average value reached 94.3%. It was observed a dependency between fluency and approved percentage points, whereas for the same fluency, 100% of the points have been approved in all phantoms. The approval criteria for IMRT plans recommended in most centers is 3% / 3mm with at least 95% of points approved, it can be concluded that, under these conditions, the IMRT plans with heterogeneity correction can be performed , however the quality control must be careful because the difficulty of the system to accurately predict the dose distribution in certain situations. (author)

  1. Accountability and non-proliferation nuclear regime: a review of the mutual surveillance Brazilian-Argentine model for nuclear safeguards; Accountability e regime de nao proliferacao nuclear: uma avaliacao do modelo de vigilancia mutua brasileiro-argentina de salvaguardas nucleares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xavier, Roberto Salles

    2014-08-01

    The regimes of accountability, the organizations of global governance and institutional arrangements of global governance of nuclear non-proliferation and of Mutual Vigilance Brazilian-Argentine of Nuclear Safeguards are the subject of research. The starting point is the importance of the institutional model of global governance for the effective control of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. In this context, the research investigates how to structure the current arrangements of the international nuclear non-proliferation and what is the performance of model Mutual Vigilance Brazilian-Argentine of Nuclear Safeguards in relation to accountability regimes of global governance. For that, was searched the current literature of three theoretical dimensions: accountability, global governance and global governance organizations. In relation to the research method was used the case study and the treatment technique of data the analysis of content. The results allowed: to establish an evaluation model based on accountability mechanisms; to assess how behaves the model Mutual Vigilance Brazilian-Argentine Nuclear Safeguards front of the proposed accountability regime; and to measure the degree to which regional arrangements that work with systems of global governance can strengthen these international systems. (author)

  2. Ionizing radiation dose control for workers in a nuclear plant working with unsealed sources; Controle da dose de radiacao ionizante para trabalhadores em uma instalacao radiativa com fontes nao seladas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerulis, Eduardo

    2006-07-01

    With the liberation of the use of the nuclear energy for peaceful applications, International Commission Radiological Protection, ICRP, founded in 1928, created a system of protection of the undesirable doses of ionizing radiation in 1958. This has been received by workers, members of the public and environment and hence it became possible for the introduction of these applications. This protection system is adopted by the International Agency of Energy Atomic, IAEA, that publishes recommendations in safety series, 88 and by the Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear, CNEN, which publishes these regulations. The international recommendations and national regulations were adapted and they need to be applied in this way. The present paper uses recommendations of the publication 75 from ICRP, of the publication 115 from 88 and regulations of the regulation NN 3.01 from CNEN to present, through radiological protection measures, the ionizing radiation dose control for workers in a nuclear plant that works in the research, production, division and packing of unsealed sources to be used in clinical applications. In that way it is possible to prevent appropriately the undesirable doses and to confirm the received doses. (author)

  3. Study radiolabeling of urea-based PSMA inhibitor with 68-Galliu: Comparative evaluation of automated and not automated methods; Estudo de radiomarcacao com Galio-68 do inibidor de PSMA baseado em ureia: avaliacao comparativa de metodo automatizado e nao automatizado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alcarde, Lais Fernanda

    2016-07-01

    The methods for clinical diagnosis of prostate cancer include rectal examination and the dosage of the prostatic specific antigen (PSA). However, the PSA level is elevated in about 20 to 30% of cases related to benign pathologies, resulting in false positives and leading patients to unnecessary biopsies. The prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA), in contrast, is over expressed in prostate cancer and founded at low levels in healthy organs. As a result, it stimulated the development of small molecule inhibitors of PSMA, which carry imaging agents to the tumor and are not affected by their microvasculature. Recent studies suggest that the HBED-CC chelator intrinsically contributes to the binding of the PSMA inhibitor peptide based on urea (Glu-urea-Lys) to the pharmacophore group. This work describes the optimization of radiolabeling conditions of PSMA-HBED-CC with {sup 68}Ga, using automated system (synthesis module) and no automated method, seeking to establish an appropriate condition to prepare this new radiopharmaceutical, with emphasis on the labeling yield and radiochemical purity of the product. It also aimed to evaluate the stability of the radiolabeled peptide in transport conditions and study the biological distribution of the radiopharmaceutical in healthy mice. The study of radiolabeling parameters enabled to define a non-automated method which resulted in high radiochemical purity (> 95 %) without the need for purification of the labeled peptide. The automated method has been adapted, using a module of synthesis and software already available at IPEN, and also resulted in high synthetic yield (≥ 90%) specially when compared with those described in the literature, with the associated benefit of greater control of the production process in compliance with Good Manufacturing Practices. The study of radiolabeling parameters afforded the PSMA-HBED-CC-{sup 68}Ga with higher specific activity than observed in published clinical studies (≥ 140,0 GBq/μmol), with a sufficiently long stability, which will enable transport to clinics for use in diagnostic imaging. Biodistribution and pharmacokinetic profiles of the radiolabeled peptide were consistent with those founded in the literature. We concluded that PSMA-HBED-CC-{sup 68}Ga, important diagnostic tool for prostate cancer imaging with PET, can be produced by either automated or not automated method with high radiochemical purity, high synthetic yield and stability of the radiopharmaceutical. (author)

  4. Monetization non associated natural gas offshore reserve in the Espirito Santo Basin; Monetizacao de uma reserva 'offshore' de gas natural nao associado na Bacia do Espirito Santo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelman, Jose Ricardo; Barbosa, Leonardo Alcantara [BG Group, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Cintra, Marcos Antonio Lins da Costa [Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, Gas Natural e Biocombustiveis (ANP), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Brunet, Patricia Lima [Anadarko Exploracao e Producao Ltda., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Longo, Rafael Rodrigo [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    This paper analyzes, from the perspective of a new player in the Brazilian market, the opportunities and the challenges to monetize a non-associated natural gas offshore resource, located in the Espirito Santo Basin. The fictitious exploration block 'BM-ES-07', located in shallow waters, near to the coast of Linhares, in Espirito Santo, was a hundred percent acquired, by an international independent oil and gas company during the fourth bid round of the ANP, occurred in 2002. With 10 (ten) billion cubic meters (m{sup 3}) of recoverable gas, the field will initiate its production in 2012, also producing condensate (C5+). The total investments are estimated (based in 2006 prices) in R$420 millions, including exploration, development and production costs. Considering the assumptions presented, the article describes the project development, presenting the economics results, and also discusses the alternatives for natural gas marketing. (author)

  5. Driving and control strategies in alternative current machines of permanent magnet with non-sinusoidal flux; Estrategias de acionamento e controle em maquinas CA de ima permanente com fluxo nao senoidal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteiro, Jose Roberto Boffino de Almeida

    1997-07-01

    The aim of this work is to study and analyze the torque performance of brush less machines with non-sinusoidal distributed magnetic fluxes. The machine type considered is a surface mount permanent magnet brush less machine. Three mathematical models for the machine are considered: the per stator phase, the vectorial and the linear second order speed-voltage models. Machines with different stator windings are compared including the permanent magnet synchronous machines with sinusoidal distributed stator windings. The torque outputs of these machines are obtained considering two kinds of open loop driving systems: one with a six-pulse waveform and other with a sinusoidal waveform. Finally, a vectorial control is proposed for the non-sinusoidal machines. The torque ripple as well the overall performance of non-sinusoidal machines with vectorial control is compared to that of sinusoidal machines. (author)

  6. Evaluation of non-conformities of hip prostheses made of titanium alloys and stainless steel; Avaliacao de nao conformidades de proteses de quadril fabricadas com ligas de titanio e aco inox

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bezerra, Ewerton de Oliveira Teotonio; Nascimento, Jose Jeferson da Silva; Luna, Carlos Bruno Barreto; Morais, Crislene Rodrigues da Silva; Campos, Karla Valeria Miranda de, E-mail: ewerton.teotonio@hotmail.com, E-mail: brunobarretodemaufcg@hotmail.com [Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UAEMa/CCT/UFCG), PB (Brazil). Unidade Academinca de Engenharia de Materiais

    2017-01-15

    A large number of metallic alloys has satisfactory behavior when used to manufacture implants for hip prostheses. However, they must be in conformity with standards, to ensure their quality for long periods without losing its functionality. Therefore, this paper aims to study the non-conformities in two hip prostheses, one of titanium and other stainless steel according to standards. The implants studied passed by X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence, tensile test and optical microscopy (OM). Specimens for the tensile test were made according to ASTM E 8M, as well, MO samples passed by metallographic procedure. The results evidenced that some chemical compositions showed in relation to the standards. The XRD analysis showed peaks of austenite and absence of ferrite for the stainless steel, while the titanium alloy presents an alpha phase (HCP) more significant than the beta phase (BCC). The stainless steel alloys and titanium have yield strength and tensile strength that meet the standards. On the other hand, the elastic modulus of the titanium alloy and stainless steel, comes to be ten times greater than the human bone. Therefore, the high modulus of elasticity of the alloys, favors bone resorption problems. The stainless steel microstructure is typical of an austenitic matrix, while the titanium alloy presents α + β microstructure. (author)

  7. Emergetic analysis of the electrolytic hydrogen production using the secondary energy from the Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant; Analise emergetica da producao de hidrogenio eletrolitico aproveitando a energia vertida nao turbinada da Usina Hidroeletrica de Itaipu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agarussi, Maria Alessandra Silva Nunes; Espinola, Michel Osvaldo Galeano [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica. Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos

    2006-07-01

    Due to the possibility of increase in the energy market in a few years and awareness of the necessity of using the secondary energy in hydroelectric power plants and also concerned about the environmental problems related to energy enterprises, the present paper develops the emergy analyses of electrolytic hydrogen production in the Itaipu Power Plant located in the countries of Brazil and Paraguay. The emergy analyses despite being unknown by the major people and technicians responsible for the development of Environmental Impacts Studies, named EIA/RIMAS in Brazil, represents a way to fulfill all requirements imposed by law and government and also an important manner to internalize externalities in the evaluation of all variables involved in the execution and maintenance of natural and artificial processes. Afterwards, this database can be used to be compared with other actual processes of producing and supplying energy, guiding stake holders when deciding where and how to implement and take advantage of available energy sources. This work aims to evaluate with emergetic criteria the research done by Antonio Carlos Fonseca Santos Jr.: Analysis of the Economic Feasibility of Hydrogen Production in Hydroelectric Power Plants: A Case Study at Itaipu. (author)

  8. Synthesis and characterization of nanocomposites based on polyurethane in aqueous dispersions with non-modified hydrophilic clays; Sintese e caracterizacao de nanocompositos a base de poliuretanos em dispersoes aquosas com argilas hidrofilicas nao-modificadas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miranda, G.S.; Delpechi, M.C.; Santo, W.L.E., E-mail: mcd@uerj.b [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), RJ (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    Several studies involving the formation of polyurethane nanocomposites employing clays of montmorillonite modified. This involves the presence of quaternary ammonium salts, the cation exchange needed to increase the interlayer space of clays that incorporate more than one step to the process, generates a higher cost. In this paper the synthesis of nanocomposite polyurethanes dispersed in water allowed not only the production of materials less harmful to the environment, but also the incorporation of hydrophilic clays, calcium and sodium in nature, without any modifications. Dispersions produced from 0.5, 1.0 and 2.5% clay (on the mass of prepolymer) were characterized in terms of total solids content, the films obtained by casting were evaluated for adhesiveness, diffraction X-rays, scanning electron microscopy. Most systems showed intercalated and partially exfoliated structures. (author)

  9. Methodology to characterize an unsampled oil interval, integrating PVT (Pressure/Volumen/Temperature) analysis and production log; Metodologia para caracterizacao de oleo de intervalo nao-amostrado, integrando analise PVT e perfil de producao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marcon, Diogo Reato; Souza, Ana Paula Martins de; Vieira, Alexandre J.M. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    This work presents a new methodology for characterizing an unsampled oil interval, using basically production log data and PVT analyses available in the well. The methodology was applied to a real case, where the live oil samples were collected during a well test run in three different depths, revealing some evidence of a compositional grading due to gravity. Each individual sample was a mixture of the fluid produced from the reservoir bottom to the sampling point, since the whole interval was perforated and the isolation had to be made with a packer. The first sample was corresponding to the mixture of lower and all upper oils. The other two samples are only the heavier and that oil with part of the one from the upper interval. In order to identify the fluid properties from the upper interval, needed for production development studies, the following procedure was devised: equation-of-state tuning, reproducing the sampled fluid properties; conversion of volumetric flowrates from production log into mass and molar flowrates; flowrate ratio calculation, between the upper and lower intervals; upper interval fluid composition estimative; upper interval fluid properties simulation, using the previously tuned equation-of-state, thus generating what was considered a representative, synthetic PVT analysis. (author)

  10. Study of heat transfer in a eccentric fuel rods in a non stop planned shutdown of a PWR type reactor; Estudo da transferencia de calor em uma vareta combustivel excentrica, num desligamento nao planejado de um reator do tipo PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Affonso, Renato Raoni Werneck; Lava, Deise Diana; Borges, Diogo da Silva; Sampaio, Paulo Augusto Berquo de; Moreira, Maria de Lourdes, E-mail: raoniwa@yahoo.com.br, E-mail: deisedy@gmail.com, E-mail: diogosb@outlook.com, E-mail: sampaio@ien.gov.br, E-mail: malu@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2014-07-01

    This paper aims to conduct a case study in which the fuel pellets are displaced related to the center coating. Therefore, it will be addressed, first, the verification of computer code, comparing the results obtained with analytical solutions. This check is important so that, at a time later, you can use the program to know the fuel rod behavior and coolant channel.

  11. Carbonated deep in non-NBR 9831/2006 Portland cements in oil well; Carbonatacao em cimentos nao especificados pela Norma NBR 9831/2006 quando empregados em pocos de petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hastenpflug, D.; Moraes, M.K.; Dalla Vecchia, F.; Costa, E.M. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUC-RS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Centro de Excelencia em Pesquisa sobre Armazenamento de Carbono (CEPAC); Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUC-RS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia e Tecnologia de Materiais (PGETEMA)], Email: hasten@gmail.com; Abreu, J.V. [Holcim Brasil S.A., Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Centro Tecnologico

    2010-07-01

    The NBR 9831/2006 well cements are indicated to well completions to sequestration of CO{sub 2} in geologic formations, being cement class G the most popular. However, studies have shown that Class G cement might suffers considerable degradation due to exposure to CO{sub 2} under geologic sequestration conditions. In order to increase cement resistance to acid attack, admixtures and additives as fly ash, fume, limestone and mineral wastes have been investigated. In this paper experiments were conducted to evaluated four commercial non- NBR 9831/2006 cements generally used in pavement area, in cracks completion and in concretes for use in aggressive environments. These cements were chosen because they have mineral additive into their specifications. This paper analyses the carbonated deep after accelerated carbonation reaction tests that simulate the well's geological conditions, when exposed to water saturated with supercritical CO{sub 2} and wet supercritical CO{sub 2} at 70 deg C and 15 MPa, during 7 days. In addition, compressive strength and the workability of these pastes were evaluated. The results were compared to the ones realized at the same condition with cement class G. It was observed that the cement used in pavement area (Pavifort) has a good resistance to CO{sub 2} attack when compared to the other types of cement, but its compressive strength is very low. (author)

  12. Superficial soil erosion assessment in agricultural land and bare land using {sup 7}Be fallout; Estudo da redistribuicao de solo superficial em areas cultivadas e nao cultivadas utilizando o fallout do {sup 7}Be

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marestoni, Luiz Diego

    2007-02-15

    Geologic and hydrologic phenomenon monitoring presents great environmental and financial interest and several radioisotopes, natural and artificial, have been used for this purpose. The more used are {sup 137}Cs, {sup 210}Pb not supported and {sup 7}Be. In the present work, {sup 7}Be was used to determine the soil erosion in three areas: one with soy ploughed at the direction of the slope, one with it perpendicular to the slope and one in an area with bare soil. {sup 7}Be is a cosmogenic radionuclide, with half-life of 53.3 days, produced by spallation of oxygen and nitrogen by cosmic rays in the troposphere and stratosphere. {sup 7}Be deposition occurs by dry and wet deposition, although wet deposition contributed by 95%. This can be verified through the measures of the {sup 7}Be inventory correlated with the precipitation, which resulted in a good linear adjustment. The experimental set up consisted of two HPGe detectors: one with 66% of relative efficiency and one with 10% of relative efficiency, both detectors coupled to standard gamma ray spectrometry nuclear electronic chain. Soil samples were packed in 1 liter Marinelli beckers. Sampling was accomplished until the depth where {sup 7}Be was present and it was possible to verify that its penetration in the soils could be very well adjusted by an exponential type function. The maximum beryllium-7 penetration in the bare soil without sign of soil erosion was 3 cm, that is, beryllium-7 is a useful tool as tracer for superficial soil erosion determination. The constant of mass relaxation h{sub 0} was determined as 4.71 {+-} 0.36, result that is in agreement with other works in the international literature. It was verified that when the soy is ploughed perpendicular to the slope, the soil redistribution rate is smaller, resulting in economic advantage. The bare soil is very exposed to the erosion, because does not exist any barrier to contain the soil that flows at the direction of the slope, such fact was verified in this work, where it was determined that the bare soil area presented the largest soil erosion among the tree studied areas. (author)

  13. Economic impacts of current harmonic from nonlinear loads on residential electricity distribution networks; Impactos economicos dos harmonicos de corrente das cargas nao lineares em redes eletricas de distribuicao residenciais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duarte, Carlos Henrique

    2010-04-15

    To achieve more efficient energy use, power electronics systems (PES) may be employed. However, this introduce nonlinear loads into the system by generating undesired frequencies that are harmonic in relation to (multiples of) the fundamental frequency (60 Hz in Brazil). Consequently, devices using PES (power electronics systems) are more efficient but also contribute significantly to degradation of power quality. Besides this, both the conventional rules on design and operation of power systems and the usual premises followed in energy efficiency programs (without mentioning the electricity consumed by the devices themselves) consider the sinusoidal voltage and current waveforms at the fixed fundamental frequency (60 Hz in Brazil) of the power grid. Thus, analysis of electricity consumption reductions in energy efficiency programs that include the use of PES considers the reduction of kWh to the final consumer but not the additional losses caused by the increase in harmonic distortion. This dissertation investigates this problem by exploring a case study of the ownership and use of television sets (TV sets) to estimate the economic impacts of residential PES on a mainly residential electricity distribution system. (author)

  14. Performance of the tariffs of a single-phase electric energy meter, type electronic, operating with non-linear loads; Desempenho tarifario do medidor monofasico de energia eletrica do tipo eletronico operando com cargas nao-lineares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, G.B.; Pinheiro Neto, D.; Lisita, L.R.; Machado, P.C.M.; Oliveira, J.V.M. [Universidade Federal de Goias (UFG), Goiania, GO (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computacao], Emails: guilhermebsantos@gmail.com, daywes@gmail.com, lrlisi-ta@gmail.com, pcesar@eee.ufg.br, joao.eee@gmail.com

    2009-07-01

    This paper analyzes the behavior of a electronic meter of single-phase in the laboratory when it is subjected to a environment with linear loads and nonlinear loads kind residential and commercial. It differs from correlated studies mainly for making use of real loads encountered in day-to-day, rather than as sources of electronic loads how has been observed in the state of the art. The comparison of results is made based on high precision energy pattern developed by virtual instrumentation means.

  15. Dosimetry in non-homogeneous media with alanine/EPR mini dosemeters and simulation with PENELOPE Monte Carlo code;Dosimetria em meios nao-homogeneos com minidosimetros de alanina/EPR e simulacao Monte Carlo com o codigo PENELOPE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vega Ramirez, J.L.; Chen, F.; Nicolucci, P.; Baffa, O. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (FFCLRP/USP), Ribeirao Preto, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciencias e Letras. Dept. de Fisica e Matematica

    2009-07-01

    The dosimetric system of L-alanine mini dosimeter and K-Band EPR spectrometer was tested for the dosimetry in non-homogeneous media through the determination of the Percentage Depth Dose (PDD) curve for a small radiation field. The alanine mini dosimeters were produced by mechanical pressure of a mixture of L-alanine (95%) and PVA (5%) to nominal dimensions of 1 mm diameter and 3 mm length and 3 - 4 mg. For detecting the EPR signal of the mini dosimeters irradiated to 25 Gy, a K-Band (24 GHz) spectrometer was used. The dosimeters were irradiated in a {sup 60}Co radiotherapy unit using 80 cm source skin distance and field sizes of 2.5 x 2.5 cm{sup 2}. The inhomogeneous phantom consisted of acrylic and cork sheets of 30 x 30 x 1 cm{sup 3}; six cork sheets were sandwiched between five and nine acrylic sheets, which were placed at the top and bottom regions respectively. PDD curves with radiographic film and PENELOPE simulation were also determined. The PDD results for alanine mini dosimeters agreed better than 5.9% with film and PENELOPE. (author)

  16. Detection and excision of non-palpable breast lesions by radio guided surgery and air injection for radiological control; Deteccao e exerese de lesoes mamarias nao palpaveis orientadas por cirurgia radioguiada com injecao de ar para controle radiologico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machado, Rafael Henrique Szymanski [Universidade Federal (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Radiologia]. E-mail: raffaszymanski@yahoo.com.br; Oliveira, Afranio Coelho de [Universidade Federal (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Hospital Universitario Clementino Fraga Filho; Rocha, Augusto Cesar Peixoto [Universidade Federal (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Ginecologia e Obstetricia; Souza, Sergio Augusto Lopes de; Martins, Flavia Paiva Proenca [Universidade Federal (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Gutfilen, Bianca; Fonseca, Lea Mirian Barbosa da [Universidade Federal (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Radiologia]. E-mail: lmirian@globo.com

    2005-11-15

    Purpose: to asses the efficiency of the radioguided localization and removal of occult breast lesions using radiopharmaceuticals injected directly into the lesions or close to them with posterior air injection as a radiological control. Methods: twenty-nine consecutive patients with thirty-two occult breast lesions detected mammographically or by ultrasound, and categorized 3, 4 and 5 BI-RADS, were included in this observational study with results expressed in percentages. The radiopharmaceutical used was human serum albumin labeled with {sup 99m}Tc-HSA injected inside or close to the lesion using mammographic or ultrasonographic guidance. The injection of the radiopharmaceutical was followed immediately by air injection through the needle used for stereotaxis as a radiological control of the radiopharmaceutical placement. The excision biopsy was carried out with the aid of a hand-held gamma-detecting probe and the entire removal of the lesion was verified by X-ray of the surgical specimens or by intraoperative frozen section examination. Results: breast cancer was found in 10.0% (1/10) of the 3 BI-RADS lesions, in 31.5% (6/19) of the 4 BI-RADS and in 66.6% (2/3) of the 5 BI-RADS. The radiotracer was correctly positioned in 96.8% of the specimens (31/32) allowing the removal of also 96.8% of the studied non-palpable breast lesions. To show the entire removal, X-ray was used in 23 cases (71.8%), intraoperative frozen section study in 21.8% (7/32) and both methods in 6.2% (2/32). Conclusions: radioguided surgery showed to be an important tool in the removal of non-palpable breast lesions, as a simple, fast and feasible method that can be implemented in the clinical routine of these patients. (author)

  17. The drone as an additional risk factor due to conditions not provided for in radiological safety at major events; O drone como fator adicional de risco decorrente de condicoes nao previstas na seguranca radiologica em grandes eventos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Gilberto de Jesus

    2015-07-01

    Major international events are potential targets of terrorist actions, seeking instant publicity that events of this magnitude provide, with the intention of causing terror and disseminate its power to a large number of people worldwide. In this context, the critical analysis of additional risk factor linked to procedures and protocols adopted on radiation safety is important. The possibility of unforeseen situations of risk, especially those resulting from the current global technological development, is a fact. Radioactive material can be used in this type of terrorism in a wide range of devices and illicit trafficking of this material is a reality that worries the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the current technological development scenario of the world, the potential occurrence of terrorist acts using drones combined with radioactive material dispersal devices, is real. The recent history of drones incidents presents cases where, despite not having been necessarily terrorist motivation, their circumstances and characteristics favor the occurrence of malicious acts. This paper proposes to alert the need of updating the current security protocols, considering the potential association of this technology with radioactive dispersal devices. (author)

  18. Characterization of dispersion of a nano composites PP/TiO{sub 2} non modified; Caracterizacao da dispersao dos nanocompositos de PP/TiO{sub 2} nao modificados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Igor L.; Tavares, Maria I.B.; Silva, Vanessa A. da; Legramanti, Cintia, E-mail: igorl@ima.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro - UFRJ, Instituto de Macromoleculas - IMA (Brazil); Luetkmeyer, Leandro [Universidades Federais do Mato Grosso - UFMT, Escritorio de Inovacao Tecnologica - EIT (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    Polymeric nano composites are composite materials where an inorganic particle, which has a dimension in the nanometer range, is dispersed in a polymer matrix. Nano composites, using polypropylene (PP) as matrix polymer and titanium dioxide (TiO{sub 2}) as filler, have great versatility in marketing applications, this factor is inherent in the PP and the inherent ability photo degraded TiO{sub 2} particles. This combination can lead to a widely used material and a degradation time after discharge reduced, there by becoming, a residue of low environmental impact. This study aimed to evaluate the dispersion and particle distribution of TiO{sub 2}, non modified, in PP matrix, using the process of preparation by melt extrusion pathway and characterization of the materials obtained: on the molecular dynamics, using low field NMR solid state, measures the relaxation time spin-network (T{sub 1}H); morphology using XRD technique, and thermal analysis technique with the TGA of pure PP and nano composites PP/TiO{sub 2}. (author)

  19. Non-isolated DC-AC converter with high voltage gain for autonomous systems of electric power; Conversor CC-CA nao isolado com alto ganho de tensao para aplicacao em sistemas autonomos de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, George Cajazeiras [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica do Ceara (CEFET/CE), Fortaleza, CE (Brazil); Torrico-Bascope, Rene P. [Universidade Federal do Ceara (PPGEE/UFC), Fortaleza, CE (Brazil). Programa de Pos Graduacao em Engenharia Eletrica; Borges Neto, Manuel Rangel [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica de Petrolina (CEFET-PET), PE (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    A non-isolated DC-AC converter with high voltage gain with two output sinusoidal voltage - 110 V and 220 V - and frequency 60 Hz for application in autonomous systems of electric power is proposed in this work. This topology consists of a boost converter with high voltage gain, based on three-state switching cell combined with a double half bridge inverter. This configuration type the size and the cost are reduced and the efficiency is gotten better, due to the reduced number of switches. The converters that compose this topology operate with high frequency, reducing the volume of the magnetic materials. can be mention as important characteristics: the voltage stress across the switches of the boost converter are low, due they be naturally clamped by one output filter capacitor, which allows the utilization of switches with lower conduction resistances, and the waveforms of the output voltage of the double half bridge inverter supplies for the load it is sinusoidal and it possesses low harmonic content. (author)

  20. Use of organoclays obtained with nonionic surfactants for drilling fluids base organic; O uso de argilas organofilicas obtidas com tensoativo nao-ionico para fluidos de perfuracao base organica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sousa, F.K.A. [Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UATEC/UFCG), PB (Brazil). Unidade Academica de Tecnologia do Desenvolvimento], e-mail: kegealves@ufcg.edu.br; Neves, G.A.; Ferreira, H.C.; Silva, A.L. [Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG/UAEMa), PB (Brazil). Unidade Academica de Engenharia de Materiais; Campos, L.F.A. [Departamento de Engenharia de Materiais, DEMat/CCT/UFPB, PB (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    This paper aims to use the compositions of organo clays obtained with nonionic surfactant for drilling fluids organic base containing additives, emulsifiers, brine, activator, reducer filtered, adensante and evaluate their rheological, filtration and electrical stability. Were studied through the mixture delineament, ten compositions of organo clays, and its performance is evaluated by means of the rheological behavior (flow curves, GI, GF, VA, VP and LE) and the tests recommended by API (PE, EE and VF). The results were compared with the standard PETROBRAS and showed that among the developed compositions, two compositions showed promising that met most of the properties and use the clay of inferior quality (Bofe and Verde-lodo) in greater quantity and minimum clay Chocolate UBM, considered the best clay in the region mines Boa Vista, PB. (author)

  1. Marginal microleakage in vitro study of occlusal fissures sealing prepared and etched or not with Er: YAG laser; Avaliacao in vitro da microinfiltracao marginal em selamentos oclusais preparados e condicionados ou nao pelo laser de Er:YAG

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Youssef, Fernanda de Almeida

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the degree of marginal microleakage in occlusal sealing by invasive techniques, after preparation with Er:YAG laser followed or not by Er:YAG laser etching and compared to the conventional technique. Thirty human premolars were divided into three groups: A (control group) - cavities were prepared with high speed and etched with 37% orthophosphoric acid; group B - cavities were prepared with Er:YAG (350 mJ, 4 Hz and 112 J /cm{sup 2}) and etched with 37% orthophosphoric acid; group C - cavities were prepared with Er:YAG laser (350 mJ, 4 Hz and 112 J/cm{sup 2}), and etched with Er:YAG laser (80 mJ, 4 Hz and 25 m/cm{sup 2}). All cavities were treated with the same adhesive system and restored with flow composite according to manufacturer instructions. Teeth were submitted to thermal cycling procedures and immersed in 50% Silver Nitrate Solutions for 8 hours in total darkness. Teeth were sectioned longitudinally in the bucco-lingual direction, in slices of 1 mm thick. Each slice was immersed into photo developing solution under 16 hours of fluorescent light. Slices were photographed and microleakage was scored from 0 to 7 J by three standard examiners. Results showed statistically significant differences for group C (Er:YAG laser preparation and etching). We concluded that Er:YAG laser can be used for cavity preparation of occlusal sealing, like the conventional high speed method. However, this laser, used as enamel etching agent, could not promote an adequate surface for adhesive procedures. (author)

  2. Optical fibre-lightning arrester cable appliances. Its repercussion in concrete unconventional power transmission lines projects; Aplicacao de cabo para-raios composto com fibra optica. Sua repercursao em projetos de LT`s concreto nao convencionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haddad, Ramon Sade [Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais (CEMIG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    1993-12-31

    With the adoption of lightning rod cables made of Optical Fibre, (in systems over Europe, Japan and North America), these became very popular in Countries capable of installing the system. The Brazilian electrical party was then challenged by a new technological experience: the lightning rod cable for lines of transmission has specific characteristics. The particularity of the electrical system in Brazil in relation to the diversity of the parameters involved, and the necessity to clarifying the concepts, take us to new strategies in planning and measuring our Power Transmission Lines 4 refs., 1 tab.

  3. European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  2. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  3. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  4. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  5. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0112 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0112 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 7e-49 71% ...

  6. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0109 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0109 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 4e-51 71% ...

  7. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0107 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0107 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 3e-59 84% ...

  8. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0115 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0115 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 1e-41 67% ...

  9. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0111 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0111 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 4e-48 73% ...

  10. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0105 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0105 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 9e-35 69% ...

  11. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0102 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0102 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 7e-30 54% ...

  12. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0103 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0103 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 6e-32 56% ...

  13. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0101 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0101 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 3e-47 77% ...

  14. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0113 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0113 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 2e-51 73% ...

  15. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0114 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0114 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 1e-38 62% ...

  16. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0108 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0108 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 7e-53 74% ...

  17. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0100 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0100 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 3e-52 75% ...

  18. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0106 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0106 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 2e-51 75% ...

  19. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0110 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0110 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 2e-71 99% ...

  20. Unigene BLAST: CBRC-DRER-15-0104 [SEVENS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available CBRC-DRER-15-0104 gnl|UG|Dr#S24600640 nao61h10.y1 Zebrafish Posterior segment. Unno...rmalized (nao) Danio rerio cDNA clone nao61h10 5', mRNA sequence /clone=nao61h10 /clone_end=5' /gb=DN895013 /gi=62879776 /ug=Dr.126440 /len=809 5e-58 79% ...

  1. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  2. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  3. Pre-Schoolers' Interest and Caring Behaviour around a Humanoid Robot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioannou, Andri; Andreou, Emily; Christofi, Maria

    2015-01-01

    This exploratory case study involved a humanoid robot, NAO, and four pre-schoolers. NAO was placed in an indoor playground together with other toys and appeared as a peer who played, talked, danced and said stories. Analysis of video recordings focused on children's behaviour around NAO and how the robot gained children's attention and…

  4. Terrestrial ecological responses of climate change in the Northern hemisphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forchhammer, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Focusing on the single most important atmospheric phenomenon in the Northern hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the author reviews the recent studies coupling the NAO with the ecology of a wide range of terrestrial organisms. In particular, the author focuses on low variations in the NAO affect phenotypic variation in life history Traits and, ultimately, dynamics of populations and of interacting species. (LN)

  5. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  6. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  7. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  8. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  9. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  10. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  11. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  12. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  13. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  14. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  15. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  16. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  17. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  18. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  19. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  20. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  1. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  2. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  3. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  4. Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data-driven Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    statistically extratropical storms and extremes, and link these to LFV modes. Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang...forecast models, as well as in the understanding they have generated. Adam Sobel, Daehyun Kim and Shuguang Wang. Extratropical variability and...predictability. Determine the extent to which extratropical monthly and seasonal low-frequency variability (LFV, i.e. PNA, NAO, as well as other regional

  5. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  6. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  7. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME

  8. Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

  9. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  10. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  11. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  12. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  13. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  14. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  15. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  16. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  17. Problems of Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  18. Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassou, Christophe

    2008-09-25

    Bridging the traditional gap between the spatio-temporal scales of weather and climate is a significant challenge facing the atmospheric community. In particular, progress in both medium-range and seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction relies on our understanding of recurrent weather patterns and the identification of specific causes responsible for their favoured occurrence, persistence or transition. Within this framework, I here present evidence that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics-the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-controls part of the distribution and sequences of the four daily weather regimes defined over the North Atlantic-European region in winter. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regimes are the most affected, allowing for medium-range predictability of their phase far exceeding the limit of around one week that is usually quoted. The tropical-extratropical lagged relationship is asymmetrical. Positive NAO events mostly respond to a mid-latitude low-frequency wave train initiated by the MJO in the western-central tropical Pacific and propagating eastwards. Precursors for negative NAO events are found in the eastern tropical Pacific-western Atlantic, leading to changes along the North Atlantic storm track. Wave-breaking diagnostics tend to support the MJO preconditioning and the role of transient eddies in setting the phase of the NAO. I present a simple statistical model to quantitatively assess the potential predictability of the daily NAO index or the sign of the NAO regimes when they occur. Forecasts are successful in approximately 70 per cent of the cases based on the knowledge of the previous approximately 12-day MJO phase used as a predictor. This promising skill could be of importance considering the tight link between weather regimes and both mean conditions and the chances of extreme events occurring over Europe. These findings are useful for further stressing the need to better simulate and forecast the tropical

  19. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  20. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  1. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  2. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    . The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  3. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  4. The North Atlantic Oscillation: variability and interactions with the North Atlantic ocean and Artic sea ice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, T

    2000-07-01

    The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region and describes the strengthening and weakening of the midlatitude westerlies. In this study, variability of the NAO during wintertime and its relationship to the North Atlantic ocean and Arctic sea ice is investigated. For this purpose, observational data are analyzed along with integrations of models for the Atlantic ocean, Arctic sea ice, and the coupled global climate system. From a statistical point of view, the observed NAO index shows unusually high variance on interdecadal time scales during the 20th century. Variability on other time scales is consistent with realizations of random processes (''white noise''). Recurrence of wintertime NAO anomalies from winter-to-winter with missing signals during the inbetween nonwinter seasons is primarily associated with interdecadal variability of the NAO. This recurrence indicates that low-frequency changes of the NAO during the 20th century were in part externally forced. (orig.)

  5. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  6. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  7. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  8. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  9. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  10. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  11. Forest productivity in southwestern Europe is controlled by coupled North Atlantic and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations

    OpenAIRE

    Madrigal Gonzalez, Jaime; Ballesteros Canovas, Juan Antonio; Herrero, Asier; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Stoffel, Markus; Lucas-Borja, Manuel E.; Andivia, Enrique; Sancho-García, Cesar; Zavala, Miguel A.

    2017-01-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) depicts annual and decadal oscillatory modes of variability responsible for dry spells over the European continent. The NAO therefore holds a great potential to evaluate the role, as carbon sinks, of water-limited forests under climate change. However, uncertainties related to inconsistent responses of long-term forest productivity to NAO have so far hampered firm conclusions on its impacts. We hypothesize that, in part, such inconsistencies might have the...

  12. The Energy Cascade Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castanheira, J. M.; Marques, C. A. F.

    2017-12-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation or Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), in a more hemispheric expression, is the dominant mode of variability of the extratropical atmospheric circulation. In the literature which analyses the association of low frequency variability of the NAO/AO with other climate variables, it is very common to find the idea of circulation and climate impacts of the NAO/AO. It is usually suggested that the NAO influences the position of North Atlantic storm tracks and the related transport of heat and moisture. However, in spite of the long time since the NAO variability mode was uncovered (Walker and Bliss, 1932), its underlying dynamical mechanisms are not well understood yet. In fact, it is not yet consensual that the NAO influences the position of the storm tracks, being possible that the relationship is in the opposite way with the storm track activity influencing de NAO. In this communication we will present an analysis of anomalies of the energy cascade associated with the NAO. A detailed version of the Lorenz energy cycle, which decomposes the energy flows into baroclinic and barotropic terms and into zonal mean and eddy components, was applied to the 6-hourly ERA-I reanalysis for the period of 1979 to 2016. The obtained results show that the positive NAO phase is preceded by an significant increase of synoptic baroclinic eddy activity. The eddy available potential energy is converted into kinetic energy and transferred to barotropic synoptic eddies. Then, the kinetic energy is transferred upscale into the barotropic planetary waves, which reproduce the NAO pattern. Therefore, we conclude that the synoptic baroclinic eddy activity forces the NAO variability. No clear signal was found for a modulating role of the NAO in the baroclinic eddy activity.

  13. Forecasting of superconducting compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskii, E.M.; Gribulya, V.G.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1981-01-01

    In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo 3 Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning

  14. Forecast of nuclear energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, W

    1976-01-01

    The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.

  15. Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

  16. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...

  17. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  18. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  19. The Latest Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, David

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)

  20. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  1. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  2. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  3. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  4. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  5. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  6. The Spatial and Temporal Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation Recorded in Ice Core Major Ion Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wawrzeniak, T. L.; Wake, C. P.; Fischer, H.; Fisher, D. A.; Schwikowski, M.

    2006-05-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation represents a significant mode of atmospheric variability for the Arctic and sub- Artic climate system. Developing a longer-term record of the spatial and temporal variability of the NAO could improve our understanding of natural climate variability in the region. Previous work has shown a significant relationship between Greenland ice core records and the NAO. Here, we have compared sea-salt and dust records from nine ice cores around the Arctic region to sea level pressure and NAO indices to evaluate the extent to which these ice cores can be used to reconstruct the NAO.

  7. Decreasing extracellular Na+ concentration triggers inositol polyphosphate production and Ca2+ mobilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, J.B.; Dwyer, S.D.; Smith, L.

    1989-01-01

    Removing extracellular Na+ (Na+o) evoked a large increase in cytosolic free Ca2+ concentration ([Ca2+]i in human skin fibroblasts. Decreasing [Na+]o from 120 to 14 mM caused the half-maximal peak increase in [Ca2+]i. Removing Na+o strongly stimulated 45 Ca2+ efflux and decreased total cell Ca2+ by about 40%. Bradykinin caused changes in [Ca2+]i, total Ca2+, and 45 Ca2+ fluxes similar to those evoked by removing Na+o. Prior stimulation of the cells with bradykinin prevented Na+o removal from increasing [Ca2+]i and vice versa. Na+o removal rapidly increased [ 3 H]inositol polyphosphate production. Loading the cells with Na+ had no effect on the increase in 45 Ca2+ efflux produced by Na+o removal. Therefore, decreasing [Na+]o probably stimulates a receptor(s) which is sensitive to extracellular, not intracellular, Na+. Removing Na+o also mobilized intracellular Ca2+ in smooth muscle and endothelial cells cultured from human umbilical and dog coronary arteries, respectively

  8. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  9. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  10. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-01-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  12. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, M.E.; Wood, A.R.O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  13. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  14. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  15. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  16. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  17. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  18. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  19. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  20. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  1. Contribution of computed tomography in patients with lung metastases of differentiated thyroid carcinoma not apparent on plain radiography who were treated with radioiodine; Contribuicao da tomografia computadorizada em pacientes com metastases pulmonares de carcinoma diferenciado de tireoide nao-aparentes na radiografia e tratados com radioiodo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosario, Pedro W.S.; Purisch, Saulo [Santa Casa Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Dep. de Tireoide. Servico de Endocrinologia]. E-mail: pedrorosario@globo.com; Tavares, Wilson C. [Instituto Alpha de Gastroenterologia, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Barroso, Alvarao L.; Rezende, Leonardo L.; Padrao, Eduardo L. [Santa Casa Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Servico de Medicina Nuclear

    2008-02-15

    Computed tomography (CT or CAT Scan) of the chest is more sensitive than radiography in the detection of lung metastases of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), but little information is available regarding the aggregated value of this method. The present study evaluated the response of patients with lung metastases of DTC not apparent on radiography to treatment with {sup 131}I and the value of CT in these cases. Twenty-five patients with lung metastases not apparent on radiography, who initially received 100-200 mCi I{sup 151}, were evaluated and those presenting pulmonary uptake on post-therapy WBS were submitted to a new treatment after 6 to 12 months, and so on. The chance of detection of pulmonary uptake on post-therapy WBS did not differ between patients with negative and positive CT (100% versus 91.5%). Mean serum Tg levels were higher in patients with positive CT (108 ng/ml versus 52 ng/ml). Negative post-therapy WBS was achieved in 82% of patients with positive CT and in 92.3% with negative CT and the cumulative I{sup 131} activity necessary to achieve this outcome did not differ between the two groups (mean = 300 mCi). Stimulated Tg was undetectable in 47% of patients with negative CT at the end of treatment, but in none of the patients whose CT continued to be positive. In patients with elevated Tg, the CT result apparently did not change the indication of therapy or the I{sup 131} activity to be administered. In cases with lung metastases, the persistence of micronodules on CT was associated with the persistence of detectable Tg in patients presenting negative post-therapy WBS. (author)

  2. Test of PPV and kVp magnitudes using a non invasive voltage test aiming an improvement on the measurement acquisition; Testes das grandezas PPV e kVp utilizando um medidor de tensao nao invasivo visando um aperfeicoamento na aquisicao de medidas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lucena, Rodrigo F. de; Dias, Daniel M.; Franciscatto, Priscila C.; Correa, Eduardo de L.; Vivolo, Vitor; Potiens, Maria da Penha A., E-mail: rodrigoifusp@yahoo.com.b, E-mail: dmdias@ipen.b, E-mail: pfranciscatto@yahoo.com.b, E-mail: edu1905@gmail.co, E-mail: vivolo@ipen.b, E-mail: mppalbu@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the measurements of PPV (Practical Peak Voltage) and kVp (Peak Voltage) were studied obtained by use of voltage non invasive, under different conditions, viewing an improvement on the acquisition measurements at the Instrument Calibration Laboratory of the IPEN, Sao Paulo, Brazil, for the implantation of the radiation quality required for the required calibrations for X radiation instruments

  3. The offer expansion of non conventional oils and the limitation of greenhouse emission: the case of Canadian oil; A expansao da oferta de oleos nao convencionais e as restricoes de emissao de gases de efeito estufa: o caso do oleo canadense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malagueta, Diego; Szklo, Alexandre; Schaeffer, Roberto [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (CT/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Centro de Tecnologia], e-mail: diegomalagueta@yahoo.com.br, e-mail: szklo@ppe.ufrj.br, e-mail: roberto@ppe.ufrj.br

    2008-07-01

    This work view to discussion and evaluates the consequences of the measurements on the exploitation and production (E and P) of the bituminous sands and to verify the possibility to occurs an evasion of investments in the sector and a canadian production less than the expected.

  4. Alterations of total non stimulated salivary flow in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the mouth and oropharynx submitted to hyperfractionated radiation therapy; Alteracoes do fluxo salivar total nao estimulado em pacientes portadores de carcinoma espinocelular de boca e orofaringe submetidos a radioterapia por hiperfracionamento

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guebur, Maria Isabela [Faculdades Integradas Espirita, Curitiba, PR (Brazil)]. E-mail: isabelaguebur@aol.com; Rapoport, Abrao [Hospital Heliopolis (HOSPHEL), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Curso de Pos-Graduacao em Ciencias da Saude; Sassi, Laurindo Moacir [Hospital Erasto Gaertner, Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Servico de Cirurgia e Traumatologia Buco-Maxico-Facial; Oliveira, Benedito Valdecir de; Ramos, Gyl Henrique Albrecht [Hospital Erasto Gaertner, Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Servico de Cirurgia de Cabeca e Pescoco; Pereira, Jose Carlos Gasparin [Hospital Erasto Gaertner, Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Servico de Radioterapia

    2004-07-01

    Prevention and early diagnosis are actually the most effective measures that we dispose to improve the prognostic of the malignant tumors. The mouth and oropharynx tumors are treated with success, when early diagnosed. The radiotherapy is almost always one of the selected treatments for these tumors. When cancer is diagnosed in advanced stages, many a time the treatment needs to be carried out swiftly to be efficient, and consequently the radio therapist use the hyperfractionated therapy, with the patient receiving two lower doses of radiation in two sessions daily, amounting to a higher daily dosage, of about 160 cGy/2x/day. When the major salivary glands are present in the radiated field, the xerostomia appears by the second week of treatment (1500 to 2000 cGy), changing the patient's health, and causing difficulties for him to eat, speak and sleep. The objective of this study was to evaluate the quantitative alterations of the total non stimulated salivate flow of patients who underwent hyperfractionated therapy for the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma of mouth and oropharynx. Samples of twelve male patients saliva from Erasto Gaertner Hospital in Curitiba, PR, Brazil, were examined. Two samples of saliva were collected from each patient, the first one before the beginning of the radiotherapy, and the second at the end of the treatment. As a result, we obtained salivary loss in 91.7% of the patients, with a percentage of total salivary flow loss of 62.9%, registered in the second collection. We concluded that the hyperfractionated therapy causes a marked xerostomia when the major salivary glands are in the radiated field. (author)

  5. Ablation of burned skin with ultra-short pulses laser to promote healing: evaluation by optical coherence tomography, histology, {mu}ATR-FTIR and Nonlinear Microscopy; Ablacao de pele queimada com laser de pulsos ultra-curtos para promocao da cicatrizacao: avaliacao por tomografia por coerencia optica, histologia, {mu}ATR-FTIR e microscopia nao-linear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Moises Oliveira dos

    2012-07-01

    Burns cause changes in the anatomical structure of the skin associated with trauma. The severity of the burn injury is divided into first, second and third-degree burns. The third-degree burns have been a major focus of research in search of more conservative treatments and faster results in repair for a functional and cosmetically acceptable. The conventional treatment is the use of topical natural or synthetic skin graft. An alternative therapy is the laser ablation process for burned tissue necrosis removal due to the no mechanical contact, fast application and access to difficult areas. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of using high intensity femtosecond lasers as an adjunct treatment of burned patients. For this study, 65 Wistar rats were divided into groups of five animals: healthy skin, burned skin, two types of treatment (surgical debridement or femtosecond laser ablation) and four different times in the healing process monitoring. Three regions of the back of the animals were exposed to steam source causing third-degree burn. On the third day after the burn, one of the regions was ablated with high intensity ultrashort laser pulses ({lambda} = 785 nm, 90 fs, 2 kHz and 10 {mu}J/ pulse), the other received surgical debridement, and the last was considered the burn control. The regions were analyzed by optical coherence tomography (OCT), histology, attenuated total reflectance infrared spectroscopy using Fourier transform ({mu}-ATR-FTIR), two-photon excitation fluorescence microscopy (TPEFM) and second harmonic generation technique (SHG) on days 3, 5, 7 and 14 pos-treatments. The results showed that with the laser irradiation conditions used it was possible to remove debris from third degree burn. The techniques used to characterize the tissue allowed to verify that all treatments promoted wound healing. On the fourteenth day, the regeneration curve showed that the attenuation coefficient of laser ablated tissue converges to the values of healthy skin, but collagen fibers have not yet reached the same organization of those in the healthy skin. (author)

  6. Bone repair of the periapical lesions treated or not with low intensity laser ({lambda} = 904 nm).(An X-ray study in human); Reparacao ossea de lesoes perirradiculares tratadas ou nao com lasers em baixa intensidade ({lambda}=904 nm). Estudo radiografico em humanos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sousa, Gerdal Roberto de

    2001-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of low intensity laser on the bone repair over periapical lesions of dental elements. Fifteen patients with a total of eighteen periapical lesions were selected and divided into two groups. Lesions of the control group were submitted to endodontic treatment and/or periapical surgery and the lesions of the experimental laser group, were submitted to the same procedures of the first group but also irradiated by low intensity laser. It was used a 904 nm wavelength laser GaAs, employing 11 mW of power delivered by a fiber optic system, irradiation continuos and contact mode, using a fluency of 9 J/cm{sup 2}. The mentioned treatment was repeated for 10 sessions with intervals of 72 hours between each session. Bone repair was evaluated through lesion measurements, which were accessed from the X ray pictures using a time and then, were also statistically analyzed. Results showed a significant difference between lased and control groups (p<0,10), emphasizing that for the laser group presented a significant reduction of the lesions area, confirmed by X ray. (author)

  7. Nondestructive analysis of the natural uranium mass through the measurement of delayed neutrons using the technique of pulsed neutron source; Analise nao destrutiva da massa de uranio natural atraves da medida de neutrons atrasados com o uso da tecnica de fonte pulsada de neutrons rapidos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coelho, Paulo Rogerio Pinto

    1979-07-01

    This work presents results of non destructive mass analysis of natural uranium by the pulsed source technique. Fissioning is produced by irradiating the test sample with pulses of 14 MeV neutrons and the uranium mass is calculated on a relative scale from the measured emission of delayed neutrons. Individual measurements were normalised against the integral counts of a scintillation detector measuring the 14 MeV neutron intensity. Delayed neutrons were measured using a specially constructed slab detector operated in anti synchronism with the fast pulsed source. The 14 MeV neutrons were produced via the T(d,n) {sup 4}He reaction using a 400 kV Van de Graaff accelerated operated at 200 kV in the pulsed source mode. Three types of sample were analysed, namely: discs of metallic uranium, pellets of sintered uranium oxide and plates of uranium aluminium alloy sandwiched between aluminium. These plates simulated those of Material Testing Reactor fuel elements. Results of measurements were reproducible to within an overall error in the range 1.6 to 3.9%; the specific error depending on the shape, size and mass of the sample. (author)

  8. The impact of triggering mechanism on flow dynamics and depositional geometry: results from an experimental study of non-conservative density currents; Influencia do mecanismo de iniciacao na dinamica dos fluxos e na geometria dos depositos gerados: observacoes obtidas a partir de estudo experimental de correntes de densidade nao-conservativas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manica, Rafael [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre (Brazil). Inst. de Pesquisas Hidraulicas. Nucleo de Estudos de Correntes de Densidade]. E-mail: rmanica@portoweb.com.br; Del Rey, Antonio Cosme; Maestri, Rogerio Dornelles; Borges, Ana Luiza de Oliveira; Viana, Adriano Roessler

    2005-05-01

    This study presents 28 physical simulations of non-conservative density currents used to evaluate their depositional patterns. Two different triggering mechanisms were used: lock gate and fluid injection. The impact of specific gravity, material type and grain size on the mixture were also checked. Dynamic and geometric features, such as head velocity and head/body height, were recorded. Results show flow velocity increase as concentration grows; deposition volumes present a general tendency to exponential decline with distance; the grain size range of the deposits decreases towards the distal portion of the channel. The results obtained have showed the efficiency of physical modeling in the study of turbidites in allowing correlations to be defined between currents and deposition patterns. (author)

  9. On the use of Indium ({sup 115}In) activation foils for the study of neutron radiation field surrounding a not shielded cyclotron; Sobre o uso de folhas de ativacao de Indio ({sup 115}In) para o estudo do campo de radiacao neutronica ao redor de um ciclotron nao blindado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guimaraes, Adriana, E-mail: amgr@cdtn.b [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Ciencia e Tecnologia das Radiacoes, Minerais e Materiais; Rodrigues, Sergio Luiz Moreira; Andrade, Ricardo Severino [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (SECPRA/CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Servico de Pesquisa e Producao de Radiofarmacos; Lacerda, Marco Aurelio de Sousa [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (SEPRA/CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Servico de Protecao Radiologica; Silva, Teogenes Augusto da [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (SERAS/CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Servico das Radiacoes Aplicadas a Saude

    2011-10-26

    Use activation foils of {sup 115}In were evaluated for study of neutron radiation field surrounding a non shielded 16.5 MeV cyclotron, during the production of fluorine-18. Two foils of {sup 115}In were used which were exposed to the neutron flux of target-chamber of the GEPETtrace-8 of CDTN/CNEN, Brazil. The first foil were positioned in front of cyclotron beam, and the second one in the diametral opposed position to the beam. It was possible to distinguish for the first foil the 417 keV photo peaks, attributed to the thermal and the 417 keV neutrons attributed to the fast neutrons. On the second foil it was only distinguished the 417 keV photopeak. The results had shown that it is possible to evaluate the fast and thermal neutron fraction surrounding the cyclotron by using indium foils. However, the short half life of the {sup 115}In makes unviable the simultaneous irradiation of a great number of foils

  10. In vitro evaluation of the morphologic changes on the root dentine irradiated by CO{sub 2} laser associated or not to calcium hydroxide application; Avaliacao in vitro das alteracoes morfologicas da superficie da dentina radicular irradiada pelo laser de CO{sub 2} associado ou nao a aplicacao de hidroxido de calcio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romano, Ana Cristina Cury Camargo

    2003-07-01

    This in vitro study has evaluated the structural changes on the root dentine irradiated by a CO{sub 2} laser associated or not to calcium hydroxide application, from the irradiated surface analysis by means of Scanning Electronic Microscopy (SEM). The purpose of this evaluation has been the study of an alternative method for the treatment of dentine hypersensitivity. Fourteen human teeth were utilized, third molars, divided into 7 groups. Group I (control group) to which no treatment was applied; Groups II, III and IV were given an application of Ca (OH){sub 2} paste followed by C0{sub 2} laser irradiation, lasting 5 seconds each with intervals of 10 seconds between each application, with continuous emission, power of 0.5 W (Group II), 1.0 W (Group III), and 1.5 W (Group IV); Groups V, VI, and VII were given laser irradiations without the Ca (OH){sub 2} paste following the same parameters applied to groups II, III, and IV respectively. Morphologic changes suggesting to fusion and re-solidification have been observed, as well as the presence of material obstructing the whole analyzed surface on groups II, III, and IV (laser + Ca (OH){sub 2}). As for groups V, VI, and VII, it has been observed fusion, re-solidification, and cracks, and these results being statistically significant when compared the '(Ca (OH){sub 2})' groups to the laser groups. No statistically significant differences were observed regarding the different powers applied in the groups that used the same treatment. Despite this result, it can be stated that powers above 1.0 W (DP = 125,38 W/cm{sup 2}) are unfavorable due to the undesirable morphologic alterations and aesthetic compromising. (author)

  11. Evaluation of microleakage occurred in class V restoration prepared with Er:YAG laser and also with high speed, restored using composite; Avaliacao da microinfiltracao em cavidades classe V preparada com laser de Er:YAG ou alta rotacao, jateadas ou nao com bicarbonato de sodio e restauradas com resina composta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Junqueira, Angelo Maercio Finochio

    2002-07-01

    The microleakage is one of the great problems found in restoring dentistry. In spite of adhesive system evolution, several materials have been studied intending to minimize or to eliminate the microleakage occurred between the tooth and restorative material. The objective of this in vitro study was to evaluate and compare the marginal microleakage in class V cavities prepared by Er:YAG laser or high speed and restored with composite resin. One of the groups received the sodium bicarbonate jet while the other group have not received. Twenty teeth third extracted molars were sectioned in the sense medial-distal being obtained forty samples that were divided in four groups: Group I (G1): prepared with Er:YAG laser (2940 nm), E= 350 mJ/p, F=2 Hz, fluency of 112,5 J/cm{sup 2}. Preparing occlusion margin slice with 250 mJ/p, F=2 Hz, fluency of 80,3 J/cm{sup 2}. The prepared total area was irradiated with E=80 mJ/p, F=2 Hz and fluency of 25,75 J/cm{sup 2}. Every prepared area was finally submitted to sodium bicarbonate jet. Group 2 (G2): it was employed the same parameters used on group 1, except the sodium carbonate jet application. Group 3 (G3): the cavities' prepare were executed with high speed rotation using diamond cylindrical point. The slice confection has been made with the same point with 45 degrees inclined, utilizing also the sodium carbonate jet in all prepared area. Group 4 (G4): it was executed similarly prepared to group 3, without the sodium bicarbonate jet. In all the groups the cavities were washed with water spray and drought with air jet. Dentin and enamel surfaces have been conditioned with phosphoric acid at 35%. All the samples of all groups were restored using the single bond system adhesive and composite resin Z250, kept at 37 deg C in stove during 24 hours, thermally stressed, immersed in silver nitrate solution at 50% for 24 hours while kept in darkness. The specimens were soaked in photo developing solution and exposed to fluorescent light for 6 hours. These teeth have been sectioning and evaluated through stereomicroscopy. The results were analyzed under statistical Kruskal-Wallis test. In conclusion, in the gingival margin, the microleakage obtained on group G1 showed be lesser then that found in the other groups G3 and G4, being statistically significant this difference. (au0010th.

  12. Predictive values of Bi-Rads categories 3, 4 and 5 in non-palpable breast masses evaluated by mammography, ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging; Valores preditivos das categorias 3, 4 e 5 do sistema Bi-Rads em lesoes mamarias nodulares nao-palpaveis avaliadas por mamografia, ultra-sonografia e ressonancia magnetica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roveda Junior, Decio; Fleury, Eduardo de Castro Faria [Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Ciencias Medicas. Servico de Diagnostico por Imagem]. E-mail: decio.jr@uol.com.br; Piato, Sebastiao [Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Obstetricia e Ginecologia. Clinica Ginecologica; Oliveira, Vilmar Marques de [Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Obstetricia e Ginecologia. Ginecologia Geral; Rinaldi, Jose Francisco [Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Obstetricia e Ginecologia. Clinica de Mastologia; Ferreira, Carlos Alberto Pecci [Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Ciencias Medicas. Dept. de Clinica Medica. Servico de Imagenologia Mamaria

    2007-03-15

    Objective: To evaluate the predictive value of BI-RADS{sup TM} categories 3, 4 and 5 in non-palpable breast masses assessed by mammography, ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. Materials And Methods: Twenty-nine patients with BI-RADS categories 3, 4 and 5 non-palpable breast masses identified by mammograms were submitted to complementary ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging studies, besides excisional biopsy. In total, 30 biopsies were performed. The lesions as well as their respective BI-RADS classification into 3, 4 and 5 were correlated with the histopathological results. The predictive values calculation was made by means of specific mathematical equations. Results: Negative predictive values for category 3 were: mammography, 69.23%; ultrasound, 70.58%; and magnetic resonance imaging, 100%. Positive predictive values for category 4 were: mammography, 63.63%; ultrasound, 50%; and magnetic resonance imaging, 30.76%. For category 5, positive predictive values were: mammography and ultrasound, 100%; and magnetic resonance imaging, 92.85%. Conclusion: For category 3, the negative predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging was high, and for categories 4 and 5, the positive predictive values of the three modalities were moderate. (author)

  13. Implementation and application of a method for quantifying metals and non-metals in drainage water from soils fertilized with phosphogypsum; Implementacao e aplicacao de metodologia para dosagem de metais e nao metais em aguas de drenagem de solos adubados com fosfogesso

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Camila Goncalves Bof

    2010-07-01

    Phosphogypsum is a waste generated in phosphoric acid production by the 'wet process'. The immense amount of phosphogypsum yearly produced (around 150 million tons) is receiving attention from environmental protection agencies all over the word, given its potential of contamination. In Brazil, this material has been used for many decades, especially for agricultural application on cropland. Although the phosphogypsum is mainly composed of dehydrated calcium sulfate, it can have high levels of impurities, such as metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb), non-metals (As and Se) and radioactive elements from natural series of {sup 232}Th and {sup 238}U. Therefore, its continuous application as an agricultural agent can result not just in soil contamination, but also contamination of the surface and groundwater due to the runoff and infiltration process. The concern associated with the contamination of aquatic environments increases; when water is used for human consumption, requiring progressive adoption of more restrictive limits. However, some of the conventional analytical techniques used to determine the maximum limit of contaminants in water have detection limits above the maximum limits established by the environmental legislation. This work was aimed to evaluate the mobility of metals and non-metals in soils and, consequently, the contamination of drainage water through greenhouse-scale leaching and transport of toxic elements from soils fertilized with phosphogypsum. Hence, methods were studied and implemented for determination of metals (Cd, Cr, Cu and Pb) using Furnace Graphite Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (GF AAS), as well as for non-metals (As and Se) using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (lCP-MS). Effects of different chemical modifiers on the determination of Cd, Cr, Cu and Pb concentration by GF AAS were also investigated. In general, it was observed that the metal and non-metal concentration were below than the actual detection limit of the equipment for all conditions of interest, indicating the low mobility of the analyzed elements in the soil column. (author)

  14. In vitro evaluation of the morphologic changes on the root dentine irradiated by CO{sub 2} laser associated or not to calcium hydroxide application; Avaliacao in vitro das alteracoes morfologicas da superficie da dentina radicular irradiada pelo laser de CO{sub 2} associado ou nao a aplicacao de hidroxido de calcio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romano, Ana Cristina Cury Camargo

    2003-07-01

    This in vitro study has evaluated the structural changes on the root dentine irradiated by a CO{sub 2} laser associated or not to calcium hydroxide application, from the irradiated surface analysis by means of Scanning Electronic Microscopy (SEM). The purpose of this evaluation has been the study of an alternative method for the treatment of dentine hypersensitivity. Fourteen human teeth were utilized, third molars, divided into 7 groups. Group I (control group) to which no treatment was applied; Groups II, III and IV were given an application of Ca (OH){sub 2} paste followed by C0{sub 2} laser irradiation, lasting 5 seconds each with intervals of 10 seconds between each application, with continuous emission, power of 0.5 W (Group II), 1.0 W (Group III), and 1.5 W (Group IV); Groups V, VI, and VII were given laser irradiations without the Ca (OH){sub 2} paste following the same parameters applied to groups II, III, and IV respectively. Morphologic changes suggesting to fusion and re-solidification have been observed, as well as the presence of material obstructing the whole analyzed surface on groups II, III, and IV (laser + Ca (OH){sub 2}). As for groups V, VI, and VII, it has been observed fusion, re-solidification, and cracks, and these results being statistically significant when compared the '(Ca (OH){sub 2})' groups to the laser groups. No statistically significant differences were observed regarding the different powers applied in the groups that used the same treatment. Despite this result, it can be stated that powers above 1.0 W (DP = 125,38 W/cm{sup 2}) are unfavorable due to the undesirable morphologic alterations and aesthetic compromising. (author)

  15. Evaluation of microleakage occurred in class V restoration prepared with Er:YAG laser and also with high speed, restored using composite; Avaliacao da microinfiltracao em cavidades classe V preparada com laser de Er:YAG ou alta rotacao, jateadas ou nao com bicarbonato de sodio e restauradas com resina composta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Junqueira, Angelo Maercio Finochio

    2002-07-01

    The microleakage is one of the great problems found in restoring dentistry. In spite of adhesive system evolution, several materials have been studied intending to minimize or to eliminate the microleakage occurred between the tooth and restorative material. The objective of this in vitro study was to evaluate and compare the marginal microleakage in class V cavities prepared by Er:YAG laser or high speed and restored with composite resin. One of the groups received the sodium bicarbonate jet while the other group have not received. Twenty teeth third extracted molars were sectioned in the sense medial-distal being obtained forty samples that were divided in four groups: Group I (G1): prepared with Er:YAG laser (2940 nm), E= 350 mJ/p, F=2 Hz, fluency of 112,5 J/cm{sup 2}. Preparing occlusion margin slice with 250 mJ/p, F=2 Hz, fluency of 80,3 J/cm{sup 2}. The prepared total area was irradiated with E=80 mJ/p, F=2 Hz and fluency of 25,75 J/cm{sup 2}. Every prepared area was finally submitted to sodium bicarbonate jet. Group 2 (G2): it was employed the same parameters used on group 1, except the sodium carbonate jet application. Group 3 (G3): the cavities' prepare were executed with high speed rotation using diamond cylindrical point. The slice confection has been made with the same point with 45 degrees inclined, utilizing also the sodium carbonate jet in all prepared area. Group 4 (G4): it was executed similarly prepared to group 3, without the sodium bicarbonate jet. In all the groups the cavities were washed with water spray and drought with air jet. Dentin and enamel surfaces have been conditioned with phosphoric acid at 35%. All the samples of all groups were restored using the single bond system adhesive and composite resin Z250, kept at 37 deg C in stove during 24 hours, thermally stressed, immersed in silver nitrate solution at 50% for 24 hours while kept in darkness. The specimens were soaked in photo developing solution and exposed to fluorescent light for 6 hours. These teeth have been sectioning and evaluated through stereomicroscopy. The results were analyzed under statistical Kruskal-Wallis test. In conclusion, in the gingival margin, the microleakage obtained on group G1 showed be lesser then that found in the other groups G3 and G4, being statistically significant this difference. (au0010th.

  16. Performance of a passive emergency heat removal system of advanced reactors in two-phase flow and with high concentration of non-condensable; Atuacao de um sistema passivo de remocao de calor de emergencia de reatores avancados em escoamento bifasico e com alta concentracao de nao-condensaveis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macedo, Luiz Alberto

    2008-07-01

    The research and the development of passive emergency cooling systems are necessary for the new generation of thermo-nuclear systems. Some basic information on the operation of these systems require the research of some relative processes to the natural circulation, mainly in conditions of two-phase flow involving processes of condensation in the presence of non-condensable gases, because many found situations are new. The experimental facility called Bancada de Circulacao Natural (BCN) was used for the realization of tests with diverse concentrations of non-condensable and power levels. The non-condensable gas present in the circuit decreases the rate of heat transfer for the secondary of the heat exchanger, determining low efficiency of the heat exchanger. High concentration of non-condensable in the vapor condensation, determines negative pressure, and cause the inversion of the flow in the circuit. The initial concentration of non-condensable and the geometry of the circuit, in the inlet of the heat exchanger, determines the establishment of transitory with two-phase flow. The BCN was performed with the computational code of Analysis of Accidents and Thermal-Hydraulics RELAP5/MOD 3.3 and, the calculated values had been compared with the experimental data, presenting good agreement for small non-condensable concentrations. The values calculated for high concentrations of non-condensable had been satisfactory after the circuit to have reached the temperature of saturation in the electric heater. (author)

  17. Cytotoxicity evaluation of Diethyltoluamide (DEET) in Perna perna (Linnaeus, 1758) mussels non-irradiated and irradiated with {sup 60}Co gamma radiation; Avaliacao da citotoxicidade do dietiltoluamida (DEET) em mexilhoes Perna perna (Linnaeus, 1758) irradiados e nao irradiados com radiacao gama de {sup 60}Co

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martini, Gisela de Assis

    2013-07-01

    Recent studies have identified the presence of several emerging pollutants in aquatic environments. The occurrence in different environmental matrices has been continuously reported, highlighting the need for toxicity studies. The DEET (N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide) is the active ingredient used in most insect repellents, and is present in many commercially available formulations. Apart from chemical pollutants, aquatic organisms are subject to exposure of ionizing radiation from natural sources or in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. The present study evaluated the toxicity of DEET in organisms irradiated and non-irradiated with {sup 60}Co gamma radiation, and the effects that radiation causes in lysosomes of hemocytes of Perna perna mussel. For this purpose, assays were performed to identify the acute toxicity of DEET concentration and the dose of gamma radiation able to cause mortality. Subsequently, cytotoxicity assays were carried out to assess the stability of the lysosomal membrane in organisms exposed to ionizing radiation and DEET. According to the results obtained in acute toxicity tests, the concentration of DEET that causes mortality of 50% exposed organisms (LC50) is 114,27 mg L{sup -1}, and the radiation dose that causes mortality (LD50) is 1068 Gy. In the cytotoxicity assays, the concentration of the non-observed effect (NOEC) for irradiated and non-irradiated organisms 0.0001 mg L-1 and observed effect concentration (LOEC) at concentrations above this. The IC25 (72h) for non-irradiated organisms was 0.0003 mg L-1 and IC50 (72h) was 0.0008 mg L{sup -1} for irradiated and non-irradiated organisms. Despite of the concentrations of effect found in this study were higher than in the environment, both measurements are in the same order of magnitude and should be also take into account the possible synergistic effects of DEET with other contaminants in the aquatic environment. (author)

  18. Spare nonlinear systems resolution; its applicability in the resolution of the problem related power flow in electric power networks; Resolucao de sistemas nao-lineares esparsos; sua aplicacao na resolucao do problema de fluxo de carga em redes de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duran, Ana Cecilia

    1990-03-01

    This thesis aims to find a better way to solve large scale nonlinear sparse system problems giving special emphasis to load flow in electric power networks. The suggested algorithms are presented 63 refs., 28 figs., 16 tabs.

  19. Influence of the clay content and drying of successive no solvents change in the morphology of polyamide 6 / clay membranes; Influencia do teor de argila e da secagem por troca sucessiva de nao solventes na morfologia das membranas de poliamida 6 / argila

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, C.H.; Ferreira, R.S.B.; Bezerra, E.B.; Leite, A.M.D.; Araujo, E.D.; Lira, H.L., E-mail: caio.henrique7@hotmail.com [Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG), PB (Brazil)

    2014-07-01

    Membranes of polyamide 6/clay nanocomposites with different contents (1 and 3%) of Brazilian bentonite clay using the technique of phase inversion was obtained. The nanocomposites were obtained in a co-rotating twin screw extruder, by the melt intercalation method and were characterized by x-ray diffraction (XRD), which showed possibly an exfoliated and / or partially exfoliated structure was obtained. The membranes were dried at room temperature and also by successive exchange of non-solvents, to prevent collapse the pores using ethanol and n-hexane as a non-solvent. From the photomicrographs of top surface by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed to morphology change in the membranes from the presence of different clay contents as well as drying the same by successive exchange of non-solvents, obtaining membranes with larger amount of pores uniformly distributed. (author)

  20. A comparative study of the effect of low laser radiation on mast cells in inflammatory fibrous hyperplasia colored and not colored by the toluidine blue; Estudo comparativo do efeito da radiacao laser em baixa intensidade sobre mastocitos de hiperplasias fibrosas inflamatorias coradas e nao coradas por azul de toluidina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sawazaki, Iris

    2001-07-01

    THIS STUDY SHOWS A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE LASER RADIATION IN LOW INTENSITY ON THE MAST CELL DEGRANULATION IN INFLAMMATORY FIBROUS HYPERPLASIA WHEN THEY ARE COLORED OR NOT BY THE TOLUIDINE BLUE. THE DYE WAS USED IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE ABSORPTION OF THE LASER LIGHT BY THE TISSUE. THE INJURE WAS DIVIDED IN THREE EQUAL PARTS, AND EACH PART RECEIVED A DIFFERENT KIND OF TREATMENT. ONE OF THEM WAS REMOVED TO BE THE CONTROL, THE SECOND PART WAS LASER TREATED AND THEN IMMEDIATELY REMOVED AND THE LAST ONE, AFTER BEING SUPERFICIALLY COLORED, WAS LASER TREATED AND THEN IMMEDIATELY REMOVED . THE ORDER OF THE STAGES WAS RANDOMLY CHANGED , THEN THE TIME BETWEEN THE STAGES WOULD NOT INTERFERE IN THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MAST CELL DEGRANULATION RATES. IT WAS FOUND THAT THE MAST CELL DEGRANULATION RATES WERE 49% FOR THE CONTROL GROUP, 87% FOR THE LASER GROUP AND 88% FOR THE COLORED/LASER GROUP. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT STATISTICAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GROUP LASER TREATED AND THE ONE COLORED/LASER TREATED. HOWEVER, THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CONTROL AND THE TREATED GROUP (PS {<=} 0,01). (AUTHOR)

  1. Mast cells behavior analysis: non mineralized wall of suprabony periodontal pockets submitted to low intensity laser radiation. (An in anima nobile study); Verificacao do comportamento de mastocitos na parede nao mineralizada da bolsa periodontal supra-ossea submetida a radiacao laser de baixa intensidade. (Estudo in anima nobile)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Livio de Barros

    2001-07-01

    For this study 20 patients with periodontal disease were selected. The treatment required for all of then was the gingivectomy, a ressective periodontal surgery. This technique consists of removing the whole excess of gingival tissue with the intent of reestablishing the anatomy and the correct function. The gingival area was submitted to 2 different wavelengths and then histologically analysed to search for alterations, mainly concerning mast cells behavior, a blood cell responsible, among other things, for blood vases enlargement. During the surgical procedure each gingival area was submitted to infrared low intensity laser ({lambda} = 785 nm) or to red laser ({lambda} = 688 nm), both with 50 mW of power and fluence of 8 J/cm{sup 2}. A third area was analysed, the control area, in which no laser treatment was employed. The samples were fixated in formol, cut and stained by hematoxyline eosine and toluidine blue. Based on the result we can conclude: the 2 wavelengths used in this study led to the reduction in the number of mast cells present in the tissue as well as to the increase on the degranulation of the remaining mast cells, considered statistically significant taken the degranulation index and; there was no significant difference caused by the action of the two laser wavelengths {lambda}=785 nm and {lambda}=688 nm -50 mW of power and fluence of 8 J/cm{sup 2}-, over the degranulation of the mast cells; the length and width of the randomly chosen blood vases were not statistically different among the analysed groups. (author)

  2. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  3. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  4. Sensitivity of the Regional Climate in the Middle East and North Africa to Volcanic Perturbations

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

    2017-01-01

    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

  5. Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peings, Yannick; Magnusdottir, Gudrun

    2014-01-01

    The North Atlantic sea surface temperature exhibits fluctuations on the multidecadal time scale, a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This letter demonstrates that the multidecadal fluctuations of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are tied to the AMO, with an opposite-signed relationship between the polarities of the AMO and the NAO. Our statistical analyses suggest that the AMO signal precedes the NAO by 10–15 years with an interesting predictability window for decadal forecasting. The AMO footprint is also detected in the multidecadal variability of the intraseasonal weather regimes of the North Atlantic sector. This observational evidence is robust over the entire 20th century and it is supported by numerical experiments with an atmospheric global climate model. The simulations suggest that the AMO-related SST anomalies induce the atmospheric anomalies by shifting the atmospheric baroclinic zone over the North Atlantic basin. As in observations, the positive phase of the AMO results in more frequent negative NAO—and blocking episodes in winter that promote the occurrence of cold extreme temperatures over the eastern United States and Europe. Thus, it is plausible that the AMO plays a role in the recent resurgence of severe winter weather in these regions and that wintertime cold extremes will be promoted as long as the AMO remains positive. (paper)

  6. Modulation of extreme temperatures in Europe under extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin

    2018-03-10

    This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or positive departures from their mean values, respectively. Analyses of the joint quantiles of the Index and temperatures (i.e., the simultaneous exceedance of particular quantile thresholds by the two variables) show that temperatures enter into the upper or lower tails of their PDF when the NAO Index also enters into its extreme tails, more often that could be expected from random statistics. Studies of this nature help further our understanding of the manner by which mechanisms of decadal-scale climate variability can influence extremes of temperature-and thus perhaps improve the forecasting of extreme temperatures in weather and climate models. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

  7. Sensitivity of the regional climate in the Middle East and North Africa to volcanic perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

    2017-08-01

    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon, and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

  8. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  9. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  10. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  11. Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on European tropospheric composition: an observational and modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, R.; Chipperfield, M.

    2017-12-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong influence on winter-time North Atlantic and European circulation patterns. Under the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+), intensification of the climatological Icelandic low and Azores high pressure systems results in strong westerly flow across the Atlantic into Europe. Under the NAO negative phase (NAO-), there is a weakening of this meridional pressure gradient resulting in a southerly shift in the westerlies flow towards the sub-tropical Atlantic. Therefore, NAO+ and NAO- introduce unstable stormy and drier stable conditions into Europe, respectively. Under NAO+ conditions, the strong westerlies tend to enhance transport of European pollution (e.g. nitrogen oxides) away from anthropogenic source regions. While during NAO-, the more stable conditions lead to a build up of pollutants. However, secondary pollutants (i.e. tropospheric ozone) show the opposite signal where NAO+, while transporting primary pollutants away, introduces Atlantic ozone enriched air into Europe. Here ozone can form downwind of pollution from continental North America and be transported into Europe via the westerly flow. Under NAO-, this westerly ozone transport is reduced yielding lower European ozone concentrations also depleted further by ozone loss through the reaction with NOx, which has accumulated over the continent. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), observed in the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS) by satellite, peaks over Iceland/Southern Greenland in NAO-, between 200-100 hPa, consistent with trapping by an anticyclone at this altitude. During NAO+, PAN is enhanced over the sub-tropical Atlantic and Arctic. Model simulations show that enhanced PAN over Iceland/Southern Greenland in NAO- is associated with vertical transport from the troposphere into the UTLS, while peak Arctic PAN in NAO+ is its accumulation given the strong northerly meridional transport in the UTLS. UTLS ozone spatial anomalies, relative to the winter

  12. Variations in suicide method and in suicide occurrence by season and day of the week in Russia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Northwestern Russia: a retrospective population-based mortality study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumarokov, Yury A; Brenn, Tormod; Kudryavtsev, Alexander V; Nilssen, Odd

    2015-09-23

    Suicide is an important world health issue, especially in territories inhabited by indigenous people. This investigated differences in suicide rates, suicide methods, and suicide occurrence by month and day of the week among the indigenous and non-indigenous populations of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) and to compare the findings from the NAO with national Russian statistics. In this retrospective population-based mortality study we investigated all suicides that occurred in the NAO in 2002-2012 (N = 252). Suicide method and the month and day of the week suicide occurred was taken from autopsy reports and disaggregated by ethnic group (indigenous and non-indigenous) and sex. Data from the NAO were then compared with national data from the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat). Hanging was the most common suicide method in the NAO in both indigenous and non-indigenous populations. The proportion of suicides by hanging among males was lower in the NAO than in national data (69.3 vs 86.2 %), but the inverse was true for females (86.5 vs 74.9 %). Suicide by firearm and by cutting was significantly higher among the indigenous population in the NAO when compared with national data. Peaks in suicide occurrence were observed in May and September in the NAO, whereas national data showed only one peak in May. Suicide occurrence in the indigenous population of the NAO was highest in April, while the non-indigenous population showed peaks in May and September. Suicide occurrence in the NAO was highest on Fridays; in national data this occurrence was highest on Mondays. We showed different relative frequencies of suicide by hanging, cutting, and firearm, as well as different suicide occurrence by month and day of the week in the NAO compared with Russia as a whole. These results can be used to plan suicide prevention activities in the Russian Arctic.

  13. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  14. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  15. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  16. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  17. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  18. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  19. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  20. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  1. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  2. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  3. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, J E; Mogren, A

    1984-01-01

    The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.

  4. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  5. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-04-10

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  6. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  7. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  8. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  9. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  10. Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsanis, I.; Tapoglou, E.

    2018-01-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.

  11. An assessment of actual evapotranspiration and soil water deficit in agricultural regions in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurnik, Blaž; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Horion, Stéphanie Marie Anne F

    2015-01-01

    ) analysis and the Pearson correlation coefficients (RPearson), we showed that large-scale agricultural droughts are influenced by the recurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and by the atmospheric blocking. Atmospheric blocking in different months throughout the year and extreme NAO index (mainly...

  12. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  13. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  14. Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Tulip; Stephanie Wallace

    2012-01-01

    We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.

  15. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  16. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  17. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  18. Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand

    OpenAIRE

    Tica, Josip; Kožić, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a forecasting model for the overnight stays of foreign tourists in Croatia. Tourism is one of the most important parts of the Croatian economy. It is particularly important in the context of the services sector. Regular and significant surpluses and the consumption of foreign guests are an important element of budget revenues, especially VAT. The ability to forecast the development of inbound tourism demand in a timely manner is crucial for both business...

  19. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  20. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.