A Chinese text classification system based on Naive Bayes algorithm

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Cui Wei

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, aiming at the characteristics of Chinese text classification, using the ICTCLAS(Chinese lexical analysis system of Chinese academy of sciences for document segmentation, and for data cleaning and filtering the Stop words, using the information gain and document frequency feature selection algorithm to document feature selection. Based on this, based on the Naive Bayesian algorithm implemented text classifier , and use Chinese corpus of Fudan University has carried on the experiment and analysis on the system.

Feature selection for Bayesian network classifiers using the MDL-FS score

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Drugan, Madalina M.; Wiering, Marco A.

When constructing a Bayesian network classifier from data, the more or less redundant features included in a dataset may bias the classifier and as a consequence may result in a relatively poor classification accuracy. In this paper, we study the problem of selecting appropriate subsets of features

Sentiment analysis system for movie review in Bahasa Indonesia using naive bayes classifier method

Science.gov (United States)

Nurdiansyah, Yanuar; Bukhori, Saiful; Hidayat, Rahmad

2018-04-01

There are many ways of implementing the use of sentiments often found in documents; one of which is the sentiments found on the product or service reviews. It is so important to be able to process and extract textual data from the documents. Therefore, we propose a system that is able to classify sentiments from review documents into two classes: positive sentiment and negative sentiment. We use Naive Bayes Classifier method in this document classification system that we build. We choose Movienthusiast, a movie reviews in Bahasa Indonesia website as the source of our review documents. From there, we were able to collect 1201 movie reviews: 783 positive reviews and 418 negative reviews that we use as the dataset for this machine learning classifier. The classifying accuracy yields an average of 88.37% from five times of accuracy measuring attempts using aforementioned dataset.

Klasifikasi Teks Bahasa Bali dengan Metode Information Gain dan Naive Bayes Classifier

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Ida Bagus Gede Widnyana Putra

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Ketersediaan dokumen teks bahasa Bali yang meningkat jumlahnya membuat proses pencarian informasi pada dokumen teks berbahasa Bali menjadi semakin sulit. Mengklasifikasikanya secara manual menjadi tidak efisien mengingat peningkatan jumlah dokumen yang semakin banyak. Pada penelitian ini dikembangkan sebuah aplikasi yang dapat mengklasifikasikan teks bahasa Bali ke dalam kategori yang ditentukan. Aplikasi ini menggunakan metode klasifikasi Naive Bayes Classifier (NBC dan metode Information Gain(IG untuk seleksi fitur. Aplikasi ini diuji dengan teknik cross validation. Hasilnya adalah nilai rata-rata akurasi dari 10 fold cross validation sebesar  95,22%.

Detection and Classification of Transformer Winding Mechanical Faults Using UWB Sensors and Bayesian Classifier

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Alehosseini, Ali; A. Hejazi, Maryam; Mokhtari, Ghassem; B. Gharehpetian, Gevork; Mohammadi, Mohammad

2015-06-01

In this paper, the Bayesian classifier is used to detect and classify the radial deformation and axial displacement of transformer windings. The proposed method is tested on a model of transformer for different volumes of radial deformation and axial displacement. In this method, ultra-wideband (UWB) signal is sent to the simplified model of the transformer winding. The received signal from the winding model is recorded and used for training and testing of Bayesian classifier in different axial displacement and radial deformation states of the winding. It is shown that the proposed method has a good accuracy to detect and classify the axial displacement and radial deformation of the winding.

Bayesian Classifier for Medical Data from Doppler Unit

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J. Málek

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, hand-held ultrasonic Doppler units (probes are often used for noninvasive screening of atherosclerosis in the arteries of the lower limbs. The mean velocity of blood flow in time and blood pressures are measured on several positions on each lower limb. By listening to the acoustic signal generated by the device or by reading the signal displayed on screen, a specialist can detect peripheral arterial disease (PAD.This project aims to design software that will be able to analyze data from such a device and classify it into several diagnostic classes. At the Department of Functional Diagnostics at the Regional Hospital in Liberec a database of several hundreds signals was collected. In cooperation with the specialist, the signals were manually classified into four classes. For each class, selected signal features were extracted and then used for training a Bayesian classifier. Another set of signals was used for evaluating and optimizing the parameters of the classifier. Slightly above 84 % of successfully recognized diagnostic states, was recently achieved on the test data. 

ANALISIS SENTIMENT PADA SOSIAL MEDIA TWITTER MENGGUNAKAN NAIVE BAYES CLASSIFIER TERHADAP KATA KUNCI “KURIKULUM 2013”

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Dyarsa Singgih Pamungkas

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Twitter salah satu situs sosial media yang memungkinkan penggunanya untuk menulis tentang berbagai hal yang terjadi dalam sehari-hari. Banyak pengguna mentweet sebuah produk atau layanan yang mereka gunakan. Tweet tersebut dapat digunakan sebagai sumber data untuk menilai sentimen pada Twitter. Pengguna sering menggunakan singkatan kata dan ejaan kata yang salah, dimana dapat menyulitkan fitur yang diambil serta mengurangi ketepatan klasifikasi. Dalam penelitian ini menggunakan Twitter Search API untuk mengambil data dari twitter, penulis menerapkan proses n-gram karakter untuk seleksi fitur serta menggunakan algoritma Naive Bayes Classifier untuk mengklasifikasi sentimen secara otomatis. Penulis menggunakan 3300 data tweet tentang sentimen kepada kata kunci “kurikulum 2013”. Data tersebut diklasifikasi secara manual dan dibagi kedalam masing-masing 1000 data untuk sentimen positif, negatif dan netral. Untuk proses latih di gunakan 3000 data tweet dan 1000 tweet tiap kategori sentimentnya. Hasil penelitian ini menghasilkan sebuah sistem yang dapat mengklasifikasi sentimen secara otomatis dengan hasil pengujian 3000 data latih dan 100 tweet data ujicoba mencapai 91 %. Kata kunci : Twitter, Twitter Search API, sosial media, tweet, analisis sentimen, sentimen, N-gram, Naive Bayes Classifier.

Improving Bayesian credibility intervals for classifier error rates using maximum entropy empirical priors.

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Gustafsson, Mats G; Wallman, Mikael; Wickenberg Bolin, Ulrika; Göransson, Hanna; Fryknäs, M; Andersson, Claes R; Isaksson, Anders

2010-06-01

Successful use of classifiers that learn to make decisions from a set of patient examples require robust methods for performance estimation. Recently many promising approaches for determination of an upper bound for the error rate of a single classifier have been reported but the Bayesian credibility interval (CI) obtained from a conventional holdout test still delivers one of the tightest bounds. The conventional Bayesian CI becomes unacceptably large in real world applications where the test set sizes are less than a few hundred. The source of this problem is that fact that the CI is determined exclusively by the result on the test examples. In other words, there is no information at all provided by the uniform prior density distribution employed which reflects complete lack of prior knowledge about the unknown error rate. Therefore, the aim of the study reported here was to study a maximum entropy (ME) based approach to improved prior knowledge and Bayesian CIs, demonstrating its relevance for biomedical research and clinical practice. It is demonstrated how a refined non-uniform prior density distribution can be obtained by means of the ME principle using empirical results from a few designs and tests using non-overlapping sets of examples. Experimental results show that ME based priors improve the CIs when employed to four quite different simulated and two real world data sets. An empirically derived ME prior seems promising for improving the Bayesian CI for the unknown error rate of a designed classifier. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A support vector machine classifier reduces interscanner variation in the HRCT classification of regional disease pattern in diffuse lung disease: Comparison to a Bayesian classifier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Yongjun; Lim, Jonghyuck; Kim, Namkug; Seo, Joon Beom [Department of Radiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Pungnap2-dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736 (Korea, Republic of); Lynch, David A. [Department of Radiology, National Jewish Medical and Research Center, Denver, Colorado 80206 (United States)

2013-05-15

Purpose: To investigate the effect of using different computed tomography (CT) scanners on the accuracy of high-resolution CT (HRCT) images in classifying regional disease patterns in patients with diffuse lung disease, support vector machine (SVM) and Bayesian classifiers were applied to multicenter data. Methods: Two experienced radiologists marked sets of 600 rectangular 20 Multiplication-Sign 20 pixel regions of interest (ROIs) on HRCT images obtained from two scanners (GE and Siemens), including 100 ROIs for each of local patterns of lungs-normal lung and five of regional pulmonary disease patterns (ground-glass opacity, reticular opacity, honeycombing, emphysema, and consolidation). Each ROI was assessed using 22 quantitative features belonging to one of the following descriptors: histogram, gradient, run-length, gray level co-occurrence matrix, low-attenuation area cluster, and top-hat transform. For automatic classification, a Bayesian classifier and a SVM classifier were compared under three different conditions. First, classification accuracies were estimated using data from each scanner. Next, data from the GE and Siemens scanners were used for training and testing, respectively, and vice versa. Finally, all ROI data were integrated regardless of the scanner type and were then trained and tested together. All experiments were performed based on forward feature selection and fivefold cross-validation with 20 repetitions. Results: For each scanner, better classification accuracies were achieved with the SVM classifier than the Bayesian classifier (92% and 82%, respectively, for the GE scanner; and 92% and 86%, respectively, for the Siemens scanner). The classification accuracies were 82%/72% for training with GE data and testing with Siemens data, and 79%/72% for the reverse. The use of training and test data obtained from the HRCT images of different scanners lowered the classification accuracy compared to the use of HRCT images from the same scanner. For

A support vector machine classifier reduces interscanner variation in the HRCT classification of regional disease pattern in diffuse lung disease: Comparison to a Bayesian classifier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Yongjun; Lim, Jonghyuck; Kim, Namkug; Seo, Joon Beom; Lynch, David A.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the effect of using different computed tomography (CT) scanners on the accuracy of high-resolution CT (HRCT) images in classifying regional disease patterns in patients with diffuse lung disease, support vector machine (SVM) and Bayesian classifiers were applied to multicenter data. Methods: Two experienced radiologists marked sets of 600 rectangular 20 × 20 pixel regions of interest (ROIs) on HRCT images obtained from two scanners (GE and Siemens), including 100 ROIs for each of local patterns of lungs—normal lung and five of regional pulmonary disease patterns (ground-glass opacity, reticular opacity, honeycombing, emphysema, and consolidation). Each ROI was assessed using 22 quantitative features belonging to one of the following descriptors: histogram, gradient, run-length, gray level co-occurrence matrix, low-attenuation area cluster, and top-hat transform. For automatic classification, a Bayesian classifier and a SVM classifier were compared under three different conditions. First, classification accuracies were estimated using data from each scanner. Next, data from the GE and Siemens scanners were used for training and testing, respectively, and vice versa. Finally, all ROI data were integrated regardless of the scanner type and were then trained and tested together. All experiments were performed based on forward feature selection and fivefold cross-validation with 20 repetitions. Results: For each scanner, better classification accuracies were achieved with the SVM classifier than the Bayesian classifier (92% and 82%, respectively, for the GE scanner; and 92% and 86%, respectively, for the Siemens scanner). The classification accuracies were 82%/72% for training with GE data and testing with Siemens data, and 79%/72% for the reverse. The use of training and test data obtained from the HRCT images of different scanners lowered the classification accuracy compared to the use of HRCT images from the same scanner. For integrated ROI

Aplikasi sistem pakar diagnosis penyakit ispa berbasis speech recognition menggunakan metode naive bayes classifier

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Mariam Marlina

2017-05-01

Full Text Available AbstrakISPA (Infeksi Saluran Pernafasan Akut adalah suatu penyakit gangguan saluran pernapasan yang dapat menimbulkan berbagai spektrum penyakit mulai dari penyakit tanpa gejala, infeksi ringan sampai penyakit yang parah dan mematikan akibat faktor lingkungan. Kurangnya pengetahuan masyarakat mengenai gejala dan cara penanganan penyakit ISPA merupakan salah satu faktor penyebab tingginya angka kematian akibat ISPA. Peran sistem pakar yang disediakan dalam bentuk aplikasi sangat diperlukan untuk membantu seseorang dalam melakukan diagnosa penyakit ISPA secara mudah dan cepat. Dengan berusaha mengadopsi pengetahuan manusia ke komputer, sistem pakar mampu menyelesaikan permasalahan seperti yang dilakukan oleh seorang pakar. Oleh Karena itu, Aplikasi Sistem Pakar Diagnosis Penyakit ISPA Berbasis Speech Recognition Menggunakan Metode Naive Bayes Classifier dapat digunakan untuk mendiagnosis penyakit ISPA terhadap seseorang berdasarkan konversi hasil deteksi suara pengguna. Dengan aplikasi ini pengguna seakan berkonsultasi kepada seorang dokter/pakar yang menangani penyakit ISPA. Aplikasi dibangun berbasis android dengan menggunakan bahasa pemrograman Java dan database MySQL. Kata kunci : Sistem pakar, speech recognition, ISPA, metode naïve bayes classifier, Android. AbstractISPA (Acute Respiratory Tract Infection is a respiratory disorder disease that can lead to a wide spectrum of diseases ranging from asymptomatic disease, mild infection to severe and deadly disease due to environmental factors. So if someone complains of respiratory disorders not necessarily just have regular respiratory problems because it could be the person has ARI disease. The role of expert systems provided in the form of an application is needed to help a person in the diagnosis of ARI disease easily and quickly. By trying to adopt human knowledge into a computer, an expert system is capable of solving problems like that of an expert. Therefore, the Application of Expert

Executed Movement Using EEG Signals through a Naive Bayes Classifier

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Juliano Machado

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Recent years have witnessed a rapid development of brain-computer interface (BCI technology. An independent BCI is a communication system for controlling a device by human intension, e.g., a computer, a wheelchair or a neuroprosthes is, not depending on the brain’s normal output pathways of peripheral nerves and muscles, but on detectable signals that represent responsive or intentional brain activities. This paper presents a comparative study of the usage of the linear discriminant analysis (LDA and the naive Bayes (NB classifiers on describing both right- and left-hand movement through electroencephalographic signal (EEG acquisition. For the analysis, we considered the following input features: the energy of the segments of a band pass-filtered signal with the frequency band in sensorimotor rhythms and the components of the spectral energy obtained through the Welch method. We also used the common spatial pattern (CSP filter, so as to increase the discriminatory activity among movement classes. By using the database generated by this experiment, we obtained hit rates up to 70%. The results are compatible with previous studies.

Exploring Land Use and Land Cover of Geotagged Social-Sensing Images Using Naive Bayes Classifier

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Asamaporn Sitthi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Online social media crowdsourced photos contain a vast amount of visual information about the physical properties and characteristics of the earth’s surface. Flickr is an important online social media platform for users seeking this information. Each day, users generate crowdsourced geotagged digital imagery containing an immense amount of information. In this paper, geotagged Flickr images are used for automatic extraction of low-level land use/land cover (LULC features. The proposed method uses a naive Bayes classifier with color, shape, and color index descriptors. The classified images are mapped using a majority filtering approach. The classifier performance in overall accuracy, kappa coefficient, precision, recall, and f-measure was 87.94%, 82.89%, 88.20%, 87.90%, and 88%, respectively. Labeled-crowdsourced images were filtered into a spatial tile of a 30 m × 30 m resolution using the majority voting method to reduce geolocation uncertainty from the crowdsourced data. These tile datasets were used as training and validation samples to classify Landsat TM5 images. The supervised maximum likelihood method was used for the LULC classification. The results show that the geotagged Flickr images can classify LULC types with reasonable accuracy and that the proposed approach improves LULC classification efficiency if a sufficient spatial distribution of crowdsourced data exists.

IMPLEMENTASI AUGMENTED REALITY UNTUK IDENTIFIKASI LOGO DAN VIDEO SEBAGAI MEDIA INFORMASI MENGGUNAKAN METODE KLASIFIKASI NAIVE BAYESIAN

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Astrid Novita Putri

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pada  Universitas Semarang Fakultas Teknologi Informasi dan  Komunikasi setiap  tahun  selalu mempunyai banyak kegiatan seperti kegiatan Seminar, Workshop, Pelatihan, Festifal, dsb. Kegiatan- kegiatan  tersebut  biasanya   didokumentasikan  dalam  bentuk  foto   dan   video.   Sedangkan  untuk dokumentasi publikasi kegiatan dalam bentuk media promosi maupun media informasi belum dilakukan, sehingga masyarakat umum yang kurang familiar tidak dapat mengetahui informasi dengan kegiatan yang ada. Memanfaatkan aplikasi smartphone yang berbasis android, blackberry, dan iphone dapat menggunakan  salah  satu  teknologi  augmented  reality  3D  yang  berfungsi  untuk  mengidentifikasi informasi melalui logo Fakultas TIK dan menerapkannya pada berbagai media cetak atau elektronik. Sehingga dengan adanya perubahan cara promosi tersebut diharapkan dapat menarik minat perhatian masyarakat umum dan masyarakat umum untuk mengetahui informasi mengenai kegiatan di Universitas Semarang khususnya Fakultas Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi. Pada penelitian ini, akan membahas bagaimana mengklasifikasikan kegiatan-kegiatan tersebut menggunakan metode naive bayes   menjadi dua  kategori yaitu favorit atau tidak favorit. Berdasarkan data foto dan video kegiatan FTIK tahun 2017 yang telah diimplementasikan menggunakan tools Unity 3D menunjukkan bahwa penerapan Augmented Reality untuk identifikasi logo sebagai media informasi menggunakan metode klasifikasi naive bayes dapat diimplementasikan dengan baik. Diharapkan dengan adanya klasifikasi kegiatan dengan memanfaatkan teknologi  augmented  reality  yang  diimplementasikan menggunakan  tools  Unity  3D, informasi yang dihasilkan akan lebih informatif dan menarik perhatian masyarakat umum.   Kata kunci: augmented, reality, naive, bayesian, kegiatan.

TEXT CLASSIFICATION USING NAIVE BAYES UPDATEABLE ALGORITHM IN SBMPTN TEST QUESTIONS

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Ristu Saptono

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Document classification is a growing interest in the research of text mining. Classification can be done based on the topics, languages, and so on. This study was conducted to determine how Naive Bayes Updateable performs in classifying the SBMPTN exam questions based on its theme. Increment model of one classification algorithm often used in text classification Naive Bayes classifier has the ability to learn from new data introduces with the system even after the classifier has been produced with the existing data. Naive Bayes Classifier classifies the exam questions based on the theme of the field of study by analyzing keywords that appear on the exam questions. One of feature selection method DF-Thresholding is implemented for improving the classification performance. Evaluation of the classification with Naive Bayes classifier algorithm produces 84,61% accuracy.

Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Science.gov (United States)

Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

2013-09-01

Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

Ranking Features on Psychological Dynamics of Cooperative Team Work through Bayesian Networks

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Pilar Fuster-Parra

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to rank some features that characterize the psychological dynamics of cooperative team work in order to determine priorities for interventions and formation: leading positive feedback, cooperative manager and collaborative manager features. From a dataset of 20 cooperative sport teams (403 soccer players, the characteristics of the prototypical sports teams are studied using an average Bayesian network (BN and two special types of BNs, the Bayesian classifiers: naive Bayes (NB and tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN. BNs are selected as they are able to produce probability estimates rather than predictions. BN results show that the antecessors (the “top” features ranked are the team members’ expectations and their attraction to the social aspects of the task. The main node is formed by the cooperative behaviors, the consequences ranked at the BN bottom (ratified by the TAN trees and the instantiations made, the roles assigned to the members and their survival inside the same team. These results should help managers to determine contents and priorities when they have to face team-building actions.

Smoothness without smoothing: why Gaussian naive Bayes is not naive for multi-subject searchlight studies.

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Rajeev D S Raizada

Full Text Available Spatial smoothness is helpful when averaging fMRI signals across multiple subjects, as it allows different subjects' corresponding brain areas to be pooled together even if they are slightly misaligned. However, smoothing is usually not applied when performing multivoxel pattern-based analyses (MVPA, as it runs the risk of blurring away the information that fine-grained spatial patterns contain. It would therefore be desirable, if possible, to carry out pattern-based analyses which take unsmoothed data as their input but which produce smooth images as output. We show here that the Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB classifier does precisely this, when it is used in "searchlight" pattern-based analyses. We explain why this occurs, and illustrate the effect in real fMRI data. Moreover, we show that analyses using GNBs produce results at the multi-subject level which are statistically robust, neurally plausible, and which replicate across two independent data sets. By contrast, SVM classifiers applied to the same data do not generate a replication, even if the SVM-derived searchlight maps have smoothing applied to them. An additional advantage of GNB classifiers for searchlight analyses is that they are orders of magnitude faster to compute than more complex alternatives such as SVMs. Collectively, these results suggest that Gaussian Naive Bayes classifiers may be a highly non-naive choice for multi-subject pattern-based fMRI studies.

Nonparametric, Coupled ,Bayesian ,Dictionary ,and Classifier Learning for Hyperspectral Classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Akhtar, Naveed; Mian, Ajmal

2017-10-03

We present a principled approach to learn a discriminative dictionary along a linear classifier for hyperspectral classification. Our approach places Gaussian Process priors over the dictionary to account for the relative smoothness of the natural spectra, whereas the classifier parameters are sampled from multivariate Gaussians. We employ two Beta-Bernoulli processes to jointly infer the dictionary and the classifier. These processes are coupled under the same sets of Bernoulli distributions. In our approach, these distributions signify the frequency of the dictionary atom usage in representing class-specific training spectra, which also makes the dictionary discriminative. Due to the coupling between the dictionary and the classifier, the popularity of the atoms for representing different classes gets encoded into the classifier. This helps in predicting the class labels of test spectra that are first represented over the dictionary by solving a simultaneous sparse optimization problem. The labels of the spectra are predicted by feeding the resulting representations to the classifier. Our approach exploits the nonparametric Bayesian framework to automatically infer the dictionary size--the key parameter in discriminative dictionary learning. Moreover, it also has the desirable property of adaptively learning the association between the dictionary atoms and the class labels by itself. We use Gibbs sampling to infer the posterior probability distributions over the dictionary and the classifier under the proposed model, for which, we derive analytical expressions. To establish the effectiveness of our approach, we test it on benchmark hyperspectral images. The classification performance is compared with the state-of-the-art dictionary learning-based classification methods.

Support vector inductive logic programming outperforms the naive Bayes classifier and inductive logic programming for the classification of bioactive chemical compounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, Edward O; Amini, Ata; Bender, Andreas; Sternberg, Michael J E; Muggleton, Stephen H; Glen, Robert C; Mitchell, John B O

2007-05-01

We investigate the classification performance of circular fingerprints in combination with the Naive Bayes Classifier (MP2D), Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) and Support Vector Inductive Logic Programming (SVILP) on a standard molecular benchmark dataset comprising 11 activity classes and about 102,000 structures. The Naive Bayes Classifier treats features independently while ILP combines structural fragments, and then creates new features with higher predictive power. SVILP is a very recently presented method which adds a support vector machine after common ILP procedures. The performance of the methods is evaluated via a number of statistical measures, namely recall, specificity, precision, F-measure, Matthews Correlation Coefficient, area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and enrichment factor (EF). According to the F-measure, which takes both recall and precision into account, SVILP is for seven out of the 11 classes the superior method. The results show that the Bayes Classifier gives the best recall performance for eight of the 11 targets, but has a much lower precision, specificity and F-measure. The SVILP model on the other hand has the highest recall for only three of the 11 classes, but generally far superior specificity and precision. To evaluate the statistical significance of the SVILP superiority, we employ McNemar's test which shows that SVILP performs significantly (p < 5%) better than both other methods for six out of 11 activity classes, while being superior with less significance for three of the remaining classes. While previously the Bayes Classifier was shown to perform very well in molecular classification studies, these results suggest that SVILP is able to extract additional knowledge from the data, thus improving classification results further.

Improving Transparency and Replication in Bayesian Statistics : The WAMBS-Checklist

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens

2017-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are slowly creeping into all fields of science and are becoming ever more popular in applied research. Although it is very attractive to use Bayesian statistics, our personal experience has led us to believe that naively applying Bayesian methods can be dangerous for at

Implementation of a Flexible Bayesian Classifier for the Assessment of Patient’s Activities within a Real-time Personalized Mobile Application

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V. Miskovic

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an implementation of a mobile application that provides a real-time personalized assessment of patient’s activities by using a Flexible Bayesian Classifier. The personalized assessment is derived from data collected from the 3-axial accelerometer sensor and the counting steps sensor, both widespread among nowadays mobile devices. Despite the fact that online mobile solutions with Bayesian Classifier have been rare and insufficiently precise, we have proven that the accuracy of the proposed system within a defined data model is comparable to the accuracy of decision trees and neural networks.

Improving Naive Bayes with Online Feature Selection for Quick Adaptation to Evolving Feature Usefulness

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pon, R K; Cardenas, A F; Buttler, D J

2007-09-19

The definition of what makes an article interesting varies from user to user and continually evolves even for a single user. As a result, for news recommendation systems, useless document features can not be determined a priori and all features are usually considered for interestingness classification. Consequently, the presence of currently useless features degrades classification performance [1], particularly over the initial set of news articles being classified. The initial set of document is critical for a user when considering which particular news recommendation system to adopt. To address these problems, we introduce an improved version of the naive Bayes classifier with online feature selection. We use correlation to determine the utility of each feature and take advantage of the conditional independence assumption used by naive Bayes for online feature selection and classification. The augmented naive Bayes classifier performs 28% better than the traditional naive Bayes classifier in recommending news articles from the Yahoo! RSS feeds.

3-D contextual Bayesian classifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Rasmus

In this paper we will consider extensions of a series of Bayesian 2-D contextual classification pocedures proposed by Owen (1984) Hjort & Mohn (1984) and Welch & Salter (1971) and Haslett (1985) to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further...

Application of the Naive Bayes Classifier for Representation and Use of Heterogeneous and Incomplete Knowledge in Social Robotics

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Gabriele Trovato

2016-02-01

Full Text Available As societies move towards integration of robots, it is important to study how robots can use their cognition in order to choose effectively their actions in a human environment, and possibly adapt to new contexts. When modelling these contextual data, it is common in social robotics to work with data extracted from human sciences such as sociology, anatomy, or anthropology. These heterogeneous data need to be efficiently used in order to make the robot adapt quickly its actions. In this paper we describe a methodology for the use of heterogeneous and incomplete knowledge, through an algorithm based on naive Bayes classifier. The model was successfully applied to two different experiments of human-robot interaction.

Fingerprint prediction using classifier ensembles

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Molale, P

2011-11-01

Full Text Available ); logistic discrimination (LgD), k-nearest neighbour (k-NN), artificial neural network (ANN), association rules (AR) decision tree (DT), naive Bayes classifier (NBC) and the support vector machine (SVM). The performance of several multiple classifier systems...

An overview of application of bayesian classifier approach in radioactive tracer technology.case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Aseer, A.; Dawood, E.; Ben Ayad, S.; Alwerfalli, M.

2015-01-01

The usefulness of implementing a radioactive tracer techniques subjected to varied risk factors. Thus, the setup procedure for the application experimental techniques of radioactive tracer must be evaluated prior the decision action steps. One way of doing this, is to use Bay's theorem techniques. As there is a possibility of classifying the implemented parameters into certain catogries depending on their certainty to effect radioactive tracer technology. In this paper, the radioactive tracer experimental parameters classified accoring to Bayesian theory. Using this theory, one can study the proposed technical systems to determine the probabilities of the effectiveness of any selected parameter among the others. The classification of the applied experimental parameters into suitable or unsuitable in proposed theoretically. Ten parameters used in this experimental data were classified accordingly. The posterior is calculate from the prior and the likelihood previously determined by bayes rule.(author)

Application of Dynamic naïve Bayesian classifier to comprehensive drought assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Park, D. H.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, J. H.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Drought monitoring has already been extensively studied due to the widespread impacts and complex causes of drought. The most important component of drought monitoring is to estimate the characteristics and extent of drought by quantitatively measuring the characteristics of drought. Drought assessment considering different aspects of the complicated drought condition and uncertainty of drought index is great significance in accurate drought monitoring. This study used the dynamic Naïve Bayesian Classifier (DNBC) which is an extension of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), to model and classify drought by using various drought indices for integrated drought assessment. To provide a stable model for combined use of multiple drought indices, this study employed the DNBC to perform multi-index drought assessment by aggregating the effect of different type of drought and considering the inherent uncertainty. Drought classification was performed by the DNBC using several drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI)) that reflect meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characteristics. Overall results showed that in comparison unidirectional (SPI, SDI, and NVSWI) or multivariate (Composite Drought Index, CDI) drought assessment, the proposed DNBC was able to synthetically classify of drought considering uncertainty. Model provided method for comprehensive drought assessment with combined use of different drought indices.

PENERAPAN NAIVE BAYES PADA INTRUSION DETECTION SYSTEM DENGAN DISKRITISASI VARIABEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I Nyoman Trisna Wirawan

2015-07-01

Pada penelitian ini akan dibahas mengenai penerapan naive bayes classifier dengan menggunakan pemilihan atribut berdasarkan pada korelasi serta preprocessing data dengan diskritisasi dengan menggunakan metode mean/standar deviasi untuk atribut kontinu dengan menggunakan 3-interval dan 5-interval. Hasil percobaan menunjukan bahwa penerapan naive bayes pada klasifikasi data yang telah melewati proses diskritisasi mampu memberikan akurasi hingga 89% dengan running time rata-rata adalah 31 detik.

Implementation of Naive Bayes Classifier Algorithm to Evaluation in Utilizing Online Hotel Tax Reporting Application

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R. Dimas Adityo

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The current implementation of tax reporting regional Pasuruan hotels have used online (Web-based, with the aim of reporting systems can run effectively and efficiently in receiving the financial statements especially from taxpayer property. Pasuruan as one small town quite rapidly in East Java, have implemented role models online tax filing system starting in 2015, with the amount of 6 hotels, there are several classes of hotels ranging from the budget class up to class three stars. After the application of the system running for 18 months (2015-2016, from existing data, conducted research on the analysis of the level of compliance of taxpayers reporting incomes in a hotel. On the research was designed and built a system to evaluate the level of compliance with the performance from the taxpayer (WP in the 2nd year (2016 and are classified in categories (1 the taxpayer (WP very obedient (ST, (2 the taxpayer (WP is quite obedient (CT, (3 Taxpayers (WP less obedient (KT. Input data will be processed using the technique of data mining algorithms Naive Bayes Classifier (NBC to form the table of probability as a basis for the process of classification levels of taxpayer compliance. Based on the results of the measurement, the test results show with an accuracy of 50% i.e. 3 taxpayers is the very obedient (ST to pay taxes. Then from the classification, the study could be made of recommendation solutions to guide the taxpayer in reporting revenues well and true.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2010-01-01

Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

Using Unsupervised Learning to Improve the Naive Bayes Classifier for Wireless Sensor Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zwartjes, G.J.; Havinga, Paul J.M.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria; Hurink, Johann L.

2012-01-01

Online processing is essential for many sensor network applications. Sensor nodes can sample far more data than what can practically be transmitted using state of the art sensor network radios. Online processing, however, is complicated due to limited resources of individual nodes. The naive Bayes

Ant colony optimization algorithm for interpretable Bayesian classifiers combination: application to medical predictions.

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Salah Bouktif

Full Text Available Prediction and classification techniques have been well studied by machine learning researchers and developed for several real-word problems. However, the level of acceptance and success of prediction models are still below expectation due to some difficulties such as the low performance of prediction models when they are applied in different environments. Such a problem has been addressed by many researchers, mainly from the machine learning community. A second problem, principally raised by model users in different communities, such as managers, economists, engineers, biologists, and medical practitioners, etc., is the prediction models' interpretability. The latter is the ability of a model to explain its predictions and exhibit the causality relationships between the inputs and the outputs. In the case of classification, a successful way to alleviate the low performance is to use ensemble classiers. It is an intuitive strategy to activate collaboration between different classifiers towards a better performance than individual classier. Unfortunately, ensemble classifiers method do not take into account the interpretability of the final classification outcome. It even worsens the original interpretability of the individual classifiers. In this paper we propose a novel implementation of classifiers combination approach that does not only promote the overall performance but also preserves the interpretability of the resulting model. We propose a solution based on Ant Colony Optimization and tailored for the case of Bayesian classifiers. We validate our proposed solution with case studies from medical domain namely, heart disease and Cardiotography-based predictions, problems where interpretability is critical to make appropriate clinical decisions.The datasets, Prediction Models and software tool together with supplementary materials are available at http://faculty.uaeu.ac.ae/salahb/ACO4BC.htm.

Three naive Bayes approaches for discrimination-free classification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Calders, T.G.K.; Verwer, S.E.

2010-01-01

In this paper, we investigate how to modify the naive Bayes classifier in order to perform classification that is restricted to be independent with respect to a given sensitive attribute. Such independency restrictions occur naturally when the decision process leading to the labels in the data-set

Guitarist Fingertip Tracking by Integrating a Bayesian Classifier into Particle Filters

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Chutisant Kerdvibulvech

2008-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a vision-based method for tracking guitar fingerings made by guitar players. We present it as a new framework for tracking colored finger markers by integrating a Bayesian classifier into particle filters. This adds the useful abilities of automatic track initialization and recovery from tracking failures in a dynamic background. Furthermore, by using the online adaptation of color probabilities, this method is able to cope with illumination changes. Augmented Reality Tag (ARTag is then utilized to calculate the projection matrix as an online process which allows the guitar to be moved while being played. Representative experimental results are also included. The method presented can be used to develop the application of human-computer interaction (HCI to guitar playing by recognizing the chord being played by a guitarist in virtual spaces. The aforementioned application would assist guitar learners by allowing them to automatically identify if they are using the correct chords required by the musical piece.

Predicting protein subcellular locations using hierarchical ensemble of Bayesian classifiers based on Markov chains

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Eils Roland

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The subcellular location of a protein is closely related to its function. It would be worthwhile to develop a method to predict the subcellular location for a given protein when only the amino acid sequence of the protein is known. Although many efforts have been made to predict subcellular location from sequence information only, there is the need for further research to improve the accuracy of prediction. Results A novel method called HensBC is introduced to predict protein subcellular location. HensBC is a recursive algorithm which constructs a hierarchical ensemble of classifiers. The classifiers used are Bayesian classifiers based on Markov chain models. We tested our method on six various datasets; among them are Gram-negative bacteria dataset, data for discriminating outer membrane proteins and apoptosis proteins dataset. We observed that our method can predict the subcellular location with high accuracy. Another advantage of the proposed method is that it can improve the accuracy of the prediction of some classes with few sequences in training and is therefore useful for datasets with imbalanced distribution of classes. Conclusion This study introduces an algorithm which uses only the primary sequence of a protein to predict its subcellular location. The proposed recursive scheme represents an interesting methodology for learning and combining classifiers. The method is computationally efficient and competitive with the previously reported approaches in terms of prediction accuracies as empirical results indicate. The code for the software is available upon request.

Naive Bayes classifiers for verbal autopsies: comparison to physician-based classification for 21,000 child and adult deaths.

Science.gov (United States)

Miasnikof, Pierre; Giannakeas, Vasily; Gomes, Mireille; Aleksandrowicz, Lukasz; Shestopaloff, Alexander Y; Alam, Dewan; Tollman, Stephen; Samarikhalaj, Akram; Jha, Prabhat

2015-11-25

Verbal autopsies (VA) are increasingly used in low- and middle-income countries where most causes of death (COD) occur at home without medical attention, and home deaths differ substantially from hospital deaths. Hence, there is no plausible "standard" against which VAs for home deaths may be validated. Previous studies have shown contradictory performance of automated methods compared to physician-based classification of CODs. We sought to compare the performance of the classic naive Bayes classifier (NBC) versus existing automated classifiers, using physician-based classification as the reference. We compared the performance of NBC, an open-source Tariff Method (OTM), and InterVA-4 on three datasets covering about 21,000 child and adult deaths: the ongoing Million Death Study in India, and health and demographic surveillance sites in Agincourt, South Africa and Matlab, Bangladesh. We applied several training and testing splits of the data to quantify the sensitivity and specificity compared to physician coding for individual CODs and to test the cause-specific mortality fractions at the population level. The NBC achieved comparable sensitivity (median 0.51, range 0.48-0.58) to OTM (median 0.50, range 0.41-0.51), with InterVA-4 having lower sensitivity (median 0.43, range 0.36-0.47) in all three datasets, across all CODs. Consistency of CODs was comparable for NBC and InterVA-4 but lower for OTM. NBC and OTM achieved better performance when using a local rather than a non-local training dataset. At the population level, NBC scored the highest cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy across the datasets (median 0.88, range 0.87-0.93), followed by InterVA-4 (median 0.66, range 0.62-0.73) and OTM (median 0.57, range 0.42-0.58). NBC outperforms current similar COD classifiers at the population level. Nevertheless, no current automated classifier adequately replicates physician classification for individual CODs. There is a need for further research on automated

A Bayesian method for comparing and combining binary classifiers in the absence of a gold standard

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Keith Jonathan M

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many problems in bioinformatics involve classification based on features such as sequence, structure or morphology. Given multiple classifiers, two crucial questions arise: how does their performance compare, and how can they best be combined to produce a better classifier? A classifier can be evaluated in terms of sensitivity and specificity using benchmark, or gold standard, data, that is, data for which the true classification is known. However, a gold standard is not always available. Here we demonstrate that a Bayesian model for comparing medical diagnostics without a gold standard can be successfully applied in the bioinformatics domain, to genomic scale data sets. We present a new implementation, which unlike previous implementations is applicable to any number of classifiers. We apply this model, for the first time, to the problem of finding the globally optimal logical combination of classifiers. Results We compared three classifiers of protein subcellular localisation, and evaluated our estimates of sensitivity and specificity against estimates obtained using a gold standard. The method overestimated sensitivity and specificity with only a small discrepancy, and correctly ranked the classifiers. Diagnostic tests for swine flu were then compared on a small data set. Lastly, classifiers for a genome-wide association study of macular degeneration with 541094 SNPs were analysed. In all cases, run times were feasible, and results precise. The optimal logical combination of classifiers was also determined for all three data sets. Code and data are available from http://bioinformatics.monash.edu.au/downloads/. Conclusions The examples demonstrate the methods are suitable for both small and large data sets, applicable to the wide range of bioinformatics classification problems, and robust to dependence between classifiers. In all three test cases, the globally optimal logical combination of the classifiers was found to be

Latent Classification Models for Binary Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2009-01-01

One of the simplest, and yet most consistently well-performing set of classifiers is the naive Bayes models (a special class of Bayesian network models). However, these models rely on the (naive) assumption that all the attributes used to describe an instance are conditionally independent given t...

Classifying Sluice Occurrences in Dialogue

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baird, Austin; Hamza, Anissa; Hardt, Daniel

2018-01-01

perform manual annotation with acceptable inter-coder agreement. We build classifier models with Decision Trees and Naive Bayes, with accuracy of 67%. We deploy a classifier to automatically classify sluice occurrences in OpenSubtitles, resulting in a corpus with 1.7 million occurrences. This will support....... Despite this, the corpus can be of great use in research on sluicing and development of systems, and we are making the corpus freely available on request. Furthermore, we are in the process of improving the accuracy of sluice identification and annotation for the purpose of created a subsequent version...

Bayesian prediction of microbial oxygen requirement [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/1m6

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Dan B. Jensen

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Prediction of the optimal habitat conditions for a given bacterium, based on genome sequence alone would be of value for scientific as well as industrial purposes. One example of such a habitat adaptation is the requirement for oxygen. In spite of good genome data availability, there have been only a few prediction attempts of bacterial oxygen requirements, using genome sequences. Here, we describe a method for distinguishing aerobic, anaerobic and facultative anaerobic bacteria, based on genome sequence-derived input, using naive Bayesian inference. In contrast, other studies found in literature only demonstrate the ability to distinguish two classes at a time. Results: The results shown in the present study are as good as or better than comparable methods previously described in the scientific literature, with an arguably simpler method, when results are directly compared. This method further compares the performance of a single-step naive Bayesian prediction of the three included classifications, compared to a simple Bayesian network with two steps. A two-step network, distinguishing first respiring from non-respiring organisms, followed by the distinction of aerobe and facultative anaerobe organisms within the respiring group, is found to perform best. Conclusions: A simple naive Bayesian network based on the presence or absence of specific protein domains within a genome is an effective and easy way to predict bacterial habitat preferences, such as oxygen requirement.

Robust Biometric Score Fusion by Naive Likelihood Ratio via Receiver Operating Characteristics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tao, Q.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

This paper presents a novel method of fusing multiple biometrics on the matching score level. We estimate the likelihood ratios of the fused biometric scores, via individual receiver operating characteristics (ROC) which construct the Naive Bayes classifier. Using a limited number of operation

Development of an online, publicly accessible naive Bayesian decision support tool for mammographic mass lesions based on the American College of Radiology (ACR) BI-RADS lexicon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, Matthias; Kotter, Elmar; Langer, Mathias [University Hospital Freiburg, Department of Radiology, Freiburg (Germany); Herda, Christoph [Kantonsspital Graubuenden, Chur (Switzerland); Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S. [University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine and Public Health, Department of Radiology, Madison, WI (United States)

2015-06-01

To develop and validate a decision support tool for mammographic mass lesions based on a standardized descriptor terminology (BI-RADS lexicon) to reduce variability of practice. We used separate training data (1,276 lesions, 138 malignant) and validation data (1,177 lesions, 175 malignant). We created naive Bayes (NB) classifiers from the training data with tenfold cross-validation. Our ''inclusive model'' comprised BI-RADS categories, BI-RADS descriptors, and age as predictive variables; our ''descriptor model'' comprised BI-RADS descriptors and age. The resulting NB classifiers were applied to the validation data. We evaluated and compared classifier performance with ROC-analysis. In the training data, the inclusive model yields an AUC of 0.959; the descriptor model yields an AUC of 0.910 (P < 0.001). The inclusive model is superior to the clinical performance (BI-RADS categories alone, P < 0.001); the descriptor model performs similarly. When applied to the validation data, the inclusive model yields an AUC of 0.935; the descriptor model yields an AUC of 0.876 (P < 0.001). Again, the inclusive model is superior to the clinical performance (P < 0.001); the descriptor model performs similarly. We consider our classifier a step towards a more uniform interpretation of combinations of BI-RADS descriptors. We provide our classifier at www.ebm-radiology.com/nbmm/index.html. (orig.)

Development of an online, publicly accessible naive Bayesian decision support tool for mammographic mass lesions based on the American College of Radiology (ACR) BI-RADS lexicon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benndorf, Matthias; Kotter, Elmar; Langer, Mathias; Herda, Christoph; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S.

2015-01-01

To develop and validate a decision support tool for mammographic mass lesions based on a standardized descriptor terminology (BI-RADS lexicon) to reduce variability of practice. We used separate training data (1,276 lesions, 138 malignant) and validation data (1,177 lesions, 175 malignant). We created naive Bayes (NB) classifiers from the training data with tenfold cross-validation. Our ''inclusive model'' comprised BI-RADS categories, BI-RADS descriptors, and age as predictive variables; our ''descriptor model'' comprised BI-RADS descriptors and age. The resulting NB classifiers were applied to the validation data. We evaluated and compared classifier performance with ROC-analysis. In the training data, the inclusive model yields an AUC of 0.959; the descriptor model yields an AUC of 0.910 (P < 0.001). The inclusive model is superior to the clinical performance (BI-RADS categories alone, P < 0.001); the descriptor model performs similarly. When applied to the validation data, the inclusive model yields an AUC of 0.935; the descriptor model yields an AUC of 0.876 (P < 0.001). Again, the inclusive model is superior to the clinical performance (P < 0.001); the descriptor model performs similarly. We consider our classifier a step towards a more uniform interpretation of combinations of BI-RADS descriptors. We provide our classifier at www.ebm-radiology.com/nbmm/index.html. (orig.)

Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

2009-11-01

Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from

Creating adaptive farm typologies using Naive Bayesian classification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paas, Wim; Groot, Jeroen C.J.

2017-01-01

The applicability of statistical typologies that capture farming systems diversity in innovation and development projects would increase if their adaptability would be enhanced, so that newly encountered farms can be classified and used to update the typology. In this paper we propose Naïve

BANYAN_Sigma: Bayesian classifier for members of young stellar associations

Science.gov (United States)

Gagné, Jonathan; Mamajek, Eric E.; Malo, Lison; Riedel, Adric; Rodriguez, David; Lafrenière, David; Faherty, Jacqueline K.; Roy-Loubier, Olivier; Pueyo, Laurent; Robin, Annie C.; Doyon, René

2018-01-01

BANYAN_Sigma calculates the membership probability that a given astrophysical object belongs to one of the currently known 27 young associations within 150 pc of the Sun, using Bayesian inference. This tool uses the sky position and proper motion measurements of an object, with optional radial velocity (RV) and distance (D) measurements, to derive a Bayesian membership probability. By default, the priors are adjusted such that a probability threshold of 90% will recover 50%, 68%, 82% or 90% of true association members depending on what observables are input (only sky position and proper motion, with RV, with D, with both RV and D, respectively). The algorithm is implemented in a Python package, in IDL, and is also implemented as an interactive web page.

Using k-dependence causal forest to mine the most significant dependency relationships among clinical variables for thyroid disease diagnosis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LiMin Wang

Full Text Available Numerous data mining models have been proposed to construct computer-aided medical expert systems. Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs are more distinct and understandable than other models. To graphically describe the dependency relationships among clinical variables for thyroid disease diagnosis and ensure the rationality of the diagnosis results, the proposed k-dependence causal forest (KCF model generates a series of submodels in the framework of maximum spanning tree (MST and demonstrates stronger dependence representation. Friedman test on 12 UCI datasets shows that KCF has classification accuracy advantage over the other state-of-the-art BNCs, such as Naive Bayes, tree augmented Naive Bayes, and k-dependence Bayesian classifier. Our extensive experimental comparison on 4 medical datasets also proves the feasibility and effectiveness of KCF in terms of sensitivity and specificity.

Multi criteria wrapper improvements to naive bayes learning

OpenAIRE

Cortizo Pérez, José Carlos; Giráldez Betrón, Juan Ignacio

2006-01-01

Feature subset selection using a wrapper means to perform a search for an optimal set of attributes using the Machine Learning Algorithm as a black box. The Naive Bayes Classifier is based on the assumption of independence among the values of the attributes given the class value. Consequently, its effectiveness may decrease when the attributes are interdependent. We present FBL, a wrapper that uses information about dependencies to guide the search for the optimal subset of features and we us...

Inference method using bayesian network for diagnosis of pulmonary nodules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawagishi, Masami; Iizuka, Yoshio; Yamamoto, Hiroyuki; Yakami, Masahiro; Kubo, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Koji; Togashi, Kaori

2010-01-01

This report describes the improvements of a naive Bayes model that infers the diagnosis of pulmonary nodules in chest CT images based on the findings obtained when a radiologist interprets the CT images. We have previously introduced an inference model using a naive Bayes classifier and have reported its clinical value based on evaluation using clinical data. In the present report, we introduce the following improvements to the original inference model: the selection of findings based on correlations and the generation of a model using only these findings, and the introduction of classifiers that integrate several simple classifiers each of which is specialized for specific diagnosis. These improvements were found to increase the inference accuracy by 10.4% (p<.01) as compared to the original model in 100 cases (222 nodules) based on leave-one-out evaluation. (author)

PERBANDINGAN K-NEAREST NEIGHBOR DAN NAIVE BAYES UNTUK KLASIFIKASI TANAH LAYAK TANAM POHON JATI

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Didik Srianto

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Data mining adalah proses menganalisa data dari perspektif yang berbeda dan menyimpulkannya menjadi informasi-informasi penting yang dapat dipakai untuk meningkatkan keuntungan, memperkecil biaya pengeluaran, atau bahkan keduanya. Secara teknis, data mining dapat disebut sebagai proses untuk menemukan korelasi atau pola dari ratusan atau ribuan field dari sebuah relasional database yang besar. Pada perum perhutani KPH SEMARANG saat ini masih menggunakan cara manual untuk menentukan jenis tanaman (jati / non jati. K-Nearest Neighbour atau k-NN merupakan algoritma data mining yang dapat digunakan untuk proses klasifikasi dan regresi. Naive bayes Classifier merupakan suatu teknik yang dapat digunakan untuk teknik klasifikasi. Pada penelitian ini k-NN dan Naive Bayes akan digunakan untuk mengklasifikasi data pohon jati dari perum perhutani KPH SEMARANG. Yang mana hasil klasifikasi dari k-NN dan Naive Bayes akan dibandingkan hasilnya. Pengujian dilakukan menggunakan software RapidMiner. Setelah dilakukan pengujian k-NN dianggap lebih baik dari Naife Bayes dengan akurasi 96.66% dan 82.63. Kata kunci -k-NN,Klasifikasi,Naive Bayes,Penanaman Pohon Jati

HIV-1 integrase resistance among antiretroviral treatment naive and experienced patients from Northwestern Poland

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Parczewski Miłosz

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background HIV integrase inhibitor use is limited by low genetic barrier to resistance and possible cross-resistance among representatives of this class of antiretrovirals. The aim of this study was to analyse integrase sequence variability among antiretroviral treatment naive and experienced patients with no prior integrase inhibitor (InI exposure and investigate development of the InI drug resistance mutations following the virologic failure of the raltegravir containing regimen. Methods Sequencing of HIV-1 integrase region from plasma samples of 80 integrase treatment naive patients and serial samples from 12 patients with observed virologic failure on raltegravir containing treatment whenever plasma vireamia exceeded >50 copies/ml was performed. Drug resistance mutations were called with Stanford DB database and grouped into major and minor variants. For subtyping bootstrapped phylogenetic analysis was used; Bayesian Monte Carlo Marcov Chain (MCMC model was implemented to infer on the phylogenetic relationships between the serial sequences from patients failing on raltegravir. Results Majority of the integrase region sequences were classified as subtype B; the remaining ones being subtype D, C, G, as well as CRF01_AE , CRF02_AG and CRF13_cpx recombinants. No major integrase drug resistance mutations have been observed in InI-treatment naive patients. In 30 (38.5% cases polymorphic variation with predominance of the E157Q mutation was observed. This mutation was more common among subtype B (26 cases, 54.2% than non-B sequences (5 cases, 16.7%, p=0.00099, OR: 5.91 (95% CI:1.77-22.63]. Other variants included L68V, L74IL, T97A, E138D, V151I, R263K. Among 12 (26.1% raltegravir treated patients treatment failure was observed; major InI drug resistance mutations (G140S, Q148H and N155H, V151I, E92EQ, V151I, G163R were noted in four of these cases (8.3% of the total InI-treated patients. Time to the development of drug resistance ranged

Study of Machine-Learning Classifier and Feature Set Selection for Intent Classification of Korean Tweets about Food Safety

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Yeom, Ha-Neul

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In recent years, several studies have proposed making use of the Twitter micro-blogging service to track various trends in online media and discussion. In this study, we specifically examine the use of Twitter to track discussions of food safety in the Korean language. Given the irregularity of keyword use in most tweets, we focus on optimistic machine-learning and feature set selection to classify collected tweets. We build the classifier model using Naive Bayes & Naive Bayes Multinomial, Support Vector Machine, and Decision Tree Algorithms, all of which show good performance. To select an optimum feature set, we construct a basic feature set as a standard for performance comparison, so that further test feature sets can be evaluated. Experiments show that precision and F-measure performance are best when using a Naive Bayes Multinomial classifier model with a test feature set defined by extracting Substantive, Predicate, Modifier, and Interjection parts of speech.

Discriminative Bayesian Dictionary Learning for Classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Akhtar, Naveed; Shafait, Faisal; Mian, Ajmal

2016-12-01

We propose a Bayesian approach to learn discriminative dictionaries for sparse representation of data. The proposed approach infers probability distributions over the atoms of a discriminative dictionary using a finite approximation of Beta Process. It also computes sets of Bernoulli distributions that associate class labels to the learned dictionary atoms. This association signifies the selection probabilities of the dictionary atoms in the expansion of class-specific data. Furthermore, the non-parametric character of the proposed approach allows it to infer the correct size of the dictionary. We exploit the aforementioned Bernoulli distributions in separately learning a linear classifier. The classifier uses the same hierarchical Bayesian model as the dictionary, which we present along the analytical inference solution for Gibbs sampling. For classification, a test instance is first sparsely encoded over the learned dictionary and the codes are fed to the classifier. We performed experiments for face and action recognition; and object and scene-category classification using five public datasets and compared the results with state-of-the-art discriminative sparse representation approaches. Experiments show that the proposed Bayesian approach consistently outperforms the existing approaches.

The Naive Central Banker

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo de Carvalho Griebeler

2015-09-01

Full Text Available There has been in some countries a trend of assigning other functions to central banks besides price stability. The most suggested function to be added to monetary authority’s obligations is to pursue economic growth or full employment. In this paper we characterize the behavior and analyse the optimal monetary policy of, what we call, a naive central banker. We describe the naive behavior as one that does face the inflation-unemployment trade-off, but it tries to minimize both variables simultaneously. Our findings, both under discretion and commitment, indicate that the naive central banker delivers lower expected inflation and inflation variance than the benchmark behavior whenever the economy is rigid enough. However, the degree of conservativeness also affects this result, such that the less conservative the naive policymaker, the more rigidity is necessary.

Prediction of small molecule binding property of protein domains with Bayesian classifiers based on Markov chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulashevska, Alla; Stein, Martin; Jackson, David; Eils, Roland

2009-12-01

Accurate computational methods that can help to predict biological function of a protein from its sequence are of great interest to research biologists and pharmaceutical companies. One approach to assume the function of proteins is to predict the interactions between proteins and other molecules. In this work, we propose a machine learning method that uses a primary sequence of a domain to predict its propensity for interaction with small molecules. By curating the Pfam database with respect to the small molecule binding ability of its component domains, we have constructed a dataset of small molecule binding and non-binding domains. This dataset was then used as training set to learn a Bayesian classifier, which should distinguish members of each class. The domain sequences of both classes are modelled with Markov chains. In a Jack-knife test, our classification procedure achieved the predictive accuracies of 77.2% and 66.7% for binding and non-binding classes respectively. We demonstrate the applicability of our classifier by using it to identify previously unknown small molecule binding domains. Our predictions are available as supplementary material and can provide very useful information to drug discovery specialists. Given the ubiquitous and essential role small molecules play in biological processes, our method is important for identifying pharmaceutically relevant components of complete proteomes. The software is available from the author upon request.

Naive Physics Perplex

OpenAIRE

Davis, Ernest

1998-01-01

The "Naive Physics Manifesto" of Pat Hayes (1978) proposes a large-scale project to develop a formal theory encompassing the entire knowledge of physics of naive reasoners, expressed in a declarative symbolic form. The theory is organized in clusters of closely interconnected concepts and axioms. More recent work on the representation of commonsense physical knowledge has followed a somewhat different methodology. The goal has been to develop a competence theory powerful enough to justify com...

Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers.

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Schuld, Maria; Petruccione, Francesco

2018-02-09

Quantum machine learning witnesses an increasing amount of quantum algorithms for data-driven decision making, a problem with potential applications ranging from automated image recognition to medical diagnosis. Many of those algorithms are implementations of quantum classifiers, or models for the classification of data inputs with a quantum computer. Following the success of collective decision making with ensembles in classical machine learning, this paper introduces the concept of quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers. Creating the ensemble corresponds to a state preparation routine, after which the quantum classifiers are evaluated in parallel and their combined decision is accessed by a single-qubit measurement. This framework naturally allows for exponentially large ensembles in which - similar to Bayesian learning - the individual classifiers do not have to be trained. As an example, we analyse an exponentially large quantum ensemble in which each classifier is weighed according to its performance in classifying the training data, leading to new results for quantum as well as classical machine learning.

Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

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Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

Adaptation in P300 braincomputer interfaces: A two-classifier cotraining approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panicker, Rajesh C.; Sun, Ying; Puthusserypady, Sadasivan

2010-01-01

A cotraining-based approach is introduced for constructing high-performance classifiers for P300-based braincomputer interfaces (BCIs), which were trained from very little data. It uses two classifiers: Fishers linear discriminant analysis and Bayesian linear discriminant analysis progressively...

Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

2017-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

Quantum Bayesian networks with application to games displaying Parrondo's paradox

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Pejic, Michael

Bayesian networks and their accompanying graphical models are widely used for prediction and analysis across many disciplines. We will reformulate these in terms of linear maps. This reformulation will suggest a natural extension, which we will show is equivalent to standard textbook quantum mechanics. Therefore, this extension will be termed quantum. However, the term quantum should not be taken to imply this extension is necessarily only of utility in situations traditionally thought of as in the domain of quantum mechanics. In principle, it may be employed in any modelling situation, say forecasting the weather or the stock market---it is up to experiment to determine if this extension is useful in practice. Even restricting to the domain of quantum mechanics, with this new formulation the advantages of Bayesian networks can be maintained for models incorporating quantum and mixed classical-quantum behavior. The use of these will be illustrated by various basic examples. Parrondo's paradox refers to the situation where two, multi-round games with a fixed winning criteria, both with probability greater than one-half for one player to win, are combined. Using a possibly biased coin to determine the rule to employ for each round, paradoxically, the previously losing player now wins the combined game with probabilitygreater than one-half. Using the extended Bayesian networks, we will formulate and analyze classical observed, classical hidden, and quantum versions of a game that displays this paradox, finding bounds for the discrepancy from naive expectations for the occurrence of the paradox. A quantum paradox inspired by Parrondo's paradox will also be analyzed. We will prove a bound for the discrepancy from naive expectations for this paradox as well. Games involving quantum walks that achieve this bound will be presented.

Content Abstract Classification Using Naive Bayes

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Latif, Syukriyanto; Suwardoyo, Untung; Aldrin Wihelmus Sanadi, Edwin

2018-03-01

This study aims to classify abstract content based on the use of the highest number of words in an abstract content of the English language journals. This research uses a system of text mining technology that extracts text data to search information from a set of documents. Abstract content of 120 data downloaded at www.computer.org. Data grouping consists of three categories: DM (Data Mining), ITS (Intelligent Transport System) and MM (Multimedia). Systems built using naive bayes algorithms to classify abstract journals and feature selection processes using term weighting to give weight to each word. Dimensional reduction techniques to reduce the dimensions of word counts rarely appear in each document based on dimensional reduction test parameters of 10% -90% of 5.344 words. The performance of the classification system is tested by using the Confusion Matrix based on comparative test data and test data. The results showed that the best classification results were obtained during the 75% training data test and 25% test data from the total data. Accuracy rates for categories of DM, ITS and MM were 100%, 100%, 86%. respectively with dimension reduction parameters of 30% and the value of learning rate between 0.1-0.5.

Bayesian Statistics at Work: the Troublesome Extraction of the CKM Phase {alpha}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charles, J. [CPT, Luminy Case 907, F-13288 Marseille Cedex 9 (France); Hoecker, A. [CERN, CH-1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Lacker, H. [TU Dresden, IKTP, D-01062 Dresden (Germany); Le Diberder, F.R. [LAL, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite Paris-Sud 11, Bat. 200, BP 34, F-91898 Orsay Cedex (France); T' Jampens, S. [LAPP, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite de Savoie, 9 Chemin de Bellevue, BP 110, F-74941 Annecy-le-Vieux Cedex (France)

2007-04-15

In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the isospin analysis of B {yields} PP (P = {pi} or {rho}) decays in heavy-flavor physics is chosen to illustrate the effect of the naive 'objective' choice of flat priors in a multi- dimensional parameter space in presence of mirror solutions. It is demonstrated that the posterior distribution for the parameter of interest, the phase {alpha}, strongly depends on the choice of the parameterization in which the priors are uniform, and on the validity range in which the (un-normalizable) priors are truncated. We prove that the most probable values found by the Bayesian treatment do not coincide with the explicit analytical solutions, in contrast to the frequentist approach. It is also shown in the appendix that the {alpha} {yields} 0 limit cannot be consistently treated in the Bayesian paradigm, because the latter violates the physical symmetries of the problem. (authors)

Bayesian Statistics at Work: the Troublesome Extraction of the CKM Phase α

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, J.; Hoecker, A.; Lacker, H.; Le Diberder, F.R.; T'Jampens, S.

2007-04-01

In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the isospin analysis of B → PP (P = π or ρ) decays in heavy-flavor physics is chosen to illustrate the effect of the naive 'objective' choice of flat priors in a multi- dimensional parameter space in presence of mirror solutions. It is demonstrated that the posterior distribution for the parameter of interest, the phase α, strongly depends on the choice of the parameterization in which the priors are uniform, and on the validity range in which the (un-normalizable) priors are truncated. We prove that the most probable values found by the Bayesian treatment do not coincide with the explicit analytical solutions, in contrast to the frequentist approach. It is also shown in the appendix that the α → 0 limit cannot be consistently treated in the Bayesian paradigm, because the latter violates the physical symmetries of the problem. (authors)

Performance evaluation of a motor-imagery-based EEG-Brain computer interface using a combined cue with heterogeneous training data in BCI-Naive subjects

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Lee Youngbum

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The subjects in EEG-Brain computer interface (BCI system experience difficulties when attempting to obtain the consistent performance of the actual movement by motor imagery alone. It is necessary to find the optimal conditions and stimuli combinations that affect the performance factors of the EEG-BCI system to guarantee equipment safety and trust through the performance evaluation of using motor imagery characteristics that can be utilized in the EEG-BCI testing environment. Methods The experiment was carried out with 10 experienced subjects and 32 naive subjects on an EEG-BCI system. There were 3 experiments: The experienced homogeneous experiment, the naive homogeneous experiment and the naive heterogeneous experiment. Each experiment was compared in terms of the six audio-visual cue combinations and consisted of 50 trials. The EEG data was classified using the least square linear classifier in case of the naive subjects through the common spatial pattern filter. The accuracy was calculated using the training and test data set. The p-value of the accuracy was obtained through the statistical significance test. Results In the case in which a naive subject was trained by a heterogeneous combined cue and tested by a visual cue, the result was not only the highest accuracy (p Conclusions We propose the use of this measuring methodology of a heterogeneous combined cue for training data and a visual cue for test data by the typical EEG-BCI algorithm on the EEG-BCI system to achieve effectiveness in terms of consistence, stability, cost, time, and resources management without the need for a trial and error process.

Classical-Equivalent Bayesian Portfolio Optimization for Electricity Generation Planning

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Hellinton H. Takada

2018-01-01

Full Text Available There are several electricity generation technologies based on different sources such as wind, biomass, gas, coal, and so on. The consideration of the uncertainties associated with the future costs of such technologies is crucial for planning purposes. In the literature, the allocation of resources in the available technologies has been solved as a mean-variance optimization problem assuming knowledge of the expected values and the covariance matrix of the costs. However, in practice, they are not exactly known parameters. Consequently, the obtained optimal allocations from the mean-variance optimization are not robust to possible estimation errors of such parameters. Additionally, it is usual to have electricity generation technology specialists participating in the planning processes and, obviously, the consideration of useful prior information based on their previous experience is of utmost importance. The Bayesian models consider not only the uncertainty in the parameters, but also the prior information from the specialists. In this paper, we introduce the classical-equivalent Bayesian mean-variance optimization to solve the electricity generation planning problem using both improper and proper prior distributions for the parameters. In order to illustrate our approach, we present an application comparing the classical-equivalent Bayesian with the naive mean-variance optimal portfolios.

Gene-Based Multiclass Cancer Diagnosis with Class-Selective Rejections

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Nisrine Jrad

2009-01-01

rejection scheme. The state of art multiclass algorithms can be considered as a particular case of the proposed algorithm where the number of decisions is given by the classes and the loss function is defined by the Bayesian risk. Two experiments are carried out in the Bayesian and the class selective rejection frameworks. Five genes selected datasets are used to assess the performance of the proposed method. Results are discussed and accuracies are compared with those computed by the Naive Bayes, Nearest Neighbor, Linear Perceptron, Multilayer Perceptron, and Support Vector Machines classifiers.

Naive scoring of human sleep based on a hidden Markov model of the electroencephalogram.

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Yaghouby, Farid; Modur, Pradeep; Sunderam, Sridhar

2014-01-01

Clinical sleep scoring involves tedious visual review of overnight polysomnograms by a human expert. Many attempts have been made to automate the process by training computer algorithms such as support vector machines and hidden Markov models (HMMs) to replicate human scoring. Such supervised classifiers are typically trained on scored data and then validated on scored out-of-sample data. Here we describe a methodology based on HMMs for scoring an overnight sleep recording without the benefit of a trained initial model. The number of states in the data is not known a priori and is optimized using a Bayes information criterion. When tested on a 22-subject database, this unsupervised classifier agreed well with human scores (mean of Cohen's kappa > 0.7). The HMM also outperformed other unsupervised classifiers (Gaussian mixture models, k-means, and linkage trees), that are capable of naive classification but do not model dynamics, by a significant margin (p < 0.05).

Recognition of pornographic web pages by classifying texts and images.

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Hu, Weiming; Wu, Ou; Chen, Zhouyao; Fu, Zhouyu; Maybank, Steve

2007-06-01

With the rapid development of the World Wide Web, people benefit more and more from the sharing of information. However, Web pages with obscene, harmful, or illegal content can be easily accessed. It is important to recognize such unsuitable, offensive, or pornographic Web pages. In this paper, a novel framework for recognizing pornographic Web pages is described. A C4.5 decision tree is used to divide Web pages, according to content representations, into continuous text pages, discrete text pages, and image pages. These three categories of Web pages are handled, respectively, by a continuous text classifier, a discrete text classifier, and an algorithm that fuses the results from the image classifier and the discrete text classifier. In the continuous text classifier, statistical and semantic features are used to recognize pornographic texts. In the discrete text classifier, the naive Bayes rule is used to calculate the probability that a discrete text is pornographic. In the image classifier, the object's contour-based features are extracted to recognize pornographic images. In the text and image fusion algorithm, the Bayes theory is used to combine the recognition results from images and texts. Experimental results demonstrate that the continuous text classifier outperforms the traditional keyword-statistics-based classifier, the contour-based image classifier outperforms the traditional skin-region-based image classifier, the results obtained by our fusion algorithm outperform those by either of the individual classifiers, and our framework can be adapted to different categories of Web pages.

Towards port sustainability through probabilistic models: Bayesian networks

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B. Molina

2018-04-01

Full Text Available It is necessary that a manager of an infrastructure knows relations between variables. Using Bayesian networks, variables can be classified, predicted and diagnosed, being able to estimate posterior probability of the unknown ones based on known ones. The proposed methodology has generated a database with port variables, which have been classified as economic, social, environmental and institutional, as addressed in of smart ports studies made in all Spanish Port System. Network has been developed using an acyclic directed graph, which have let us know relationships in terms of parents and sons. In probabilistic terms, it can be concluded from the constructed network that the most decisive variables for port sustainability are those that are part of the institutional dimension. It has been concluded that Bayesian networks allow modeling uncertainty probabilistically even when the number of variables is high as it occurs in port planning and exploitation.

Remotely Sensed Monitoring of Small Reservoir Dynamics: A Bayesian Approach

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Dirk Eilander

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Multipurpose small reservoirs are important for livelihoods in rural semi-arid regions. To manage and plan these reservoirs and to assess their hydrological impact at a river basin scale, it is important to monitor their water storage dynamics. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for monitoring small reservoirs with radar satellite images. The newly developed growing Bayesian classifier has a high degree of automation, can readily be extended with auxiliary information and reduces the confusion error to the land-water boundary pixels. A case study has been performed in the Upper East Region of Ghana, based on Radarsat-2 data from November 2012 until April 2013. Results show that the growing Bayesian classifier can deal with the spatial and temporal variability in synthetic aperture radar (SAR backscatter intensities from small reservoirs. Due to its ability to incorporate auxiliary information, the algorithm is able to delineate open water from SAR imagery with a low land-water contrast in the case of wind-induced Bragg scattering or limited vegetation on the land surrounding a small reservoir.

A web-based neurological pain classifier tool utilizing Bayesian decision theory for pain classification in spinal cord injury patients

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Verma, Sneha K.; Chun, Sophia; Liu, Brent J.

2014-03-01

Pain is a common complication after spinal cord injury with prevalence estimates ranging 77% to 81%, which highly affects a patient's lifestyle and well-being. In the current clinical setting paper-based forms are used to classify pain correctly, however, the accuracy of diagnoses and optimal management of pain largely depend on the expert reviewer, which in many cases is not possible because of very few experts in this field. The need for a clinical decision support system that can be used by expert and non-expert clinicians has been cited in literature, but such a system has not been developed. We have designed and developed a stand-alone tool for correctly classifying pain type in spinal cord injury (SCI) patients, using Bayesian decision theory. Various machine learning simulation methods are used to verify the algorithm using a pilot study data set, which consists of 48 patients data set. The data set consists of the paper-based forms, collected at Long Beach VA clinic with pain classification done by expert in the field. Using the WEKA as the machine learning tool we have tested on the 48 patient dataset that the hypothesis that attributes collected on the forms and the pain location marked by patients have very significant impact on the pain type classification. This tool will be integrated with an imaging informatics system to support a clinical study that will test the effectiveness of using Proton Beam radiotherapy for treating spinal cord injury (SCI) related neuropathic pain as an alternative to invasive surgical lesioning.

PENERAPAN ALGORITMA NAIVE BAYES UNTUK MENGKLASIFIKASI DATA NASABAH ASURANSI

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Bustami Bustami

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Data mining adalah teknik yang memanfaatkan data dalam jumlah yang besar untuk memperoleh informasi berharga yang sebelumnya tidak diketahui dan dapat dimanfaatkan untuk pengambilan keputusan penting. Pada penelitian ini, penulis berusaha menambang data (data mining nasabah sebuah perusahaan asuransi untuk mengetahui lancar, kurang lancar atau tidak lancarnya nasabah tersebut. Data yang ada dianalisis menggunakan algoritma Naive Bayes. Naive Bayes merupakan salah satu meode pada probabilistic reasoning. Algoritma Naive Bayes bertujuan untuk melakukan klasifikasi data pada kelas tertentu, kemudian pola tersebut dapat digunakan untuk memperkirakan nasabah yang bergabung, sehingga perusahaan bisa mengambil keputusan menerima atau menolak calon nasabah tersebut. Kata Kunci : data mining, asuransi, klasifikasi, algoritma Naive Bayes

Learning Negotiation Policies Using IB3 and Bayesian Networks

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Nalepa, Gislaine M.; Ávila, Bráulio C.; Enembreck, Fabrício; Scalabrin, Edson E.

This paper presents an intelligent offer policy in a negotiation environment, in which each agent involved learns the preferences of its opponent in order to improve its own performance. Each agent must also be able to detect drifts in the opponent's preferences so as to quickly adjust itself to their new offer policy. For this purpose, two simple learning techniques were first evaluated: (i) based on instances (IB3) and (ii) based on Bayesian Networks. Additionally, as its known that in theory group learning produces better results than individual/single learning, the efficiency of IB3 and Bayesian classifier groups were also analyzed. Finally, each decision model was evaluated in moments of concept drift, being the drift gradual, moderate or abrupt. Results showed that both groups of classifiers were able to effectively detect drifts in the opponent's preferences.

Risk of Erectile Dysfunction in Transfusion-naive Thalassemia Men

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Guang; Lin, Te-Yu; Lin, Cheng-Li; Dai, Ming-Shen; Ho, Ching-Liang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-01-01

Abstract Based on the mechanism of pathophysiology, thalassemia major or transfusion-dependent thalassemia patients may have an increased risk of developing organic erectile dysfunction resulting from hypogonadism. However, there have been few studies investigating the association between erectile dysfunction and transfusion-naive thalassemia populations. We constructed a population-based cohort study to elucidate the association between transfusion-naive thalassemia populations and organic erectile dysfunction This nationwide population-based cohort study involved analyzing data from 1998 to 2010 obtained from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database, with a follow-up period extending to the end of 2011. We identified men with transfusion-naive thalassemia and selected a comparison cohort that was frequency-matched with these according to age, and year of diagnosis thalassemia at a ratio of 1 thalassemia man to 4 control men. We analyzed the risks for transfusion-naive thalassemia men and organic erectile dysfunction by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In this study, 588 transfusion-naive thalassemia men and 2337 controls were included. Total 12 patients were identified within the thalassaemia group and 10 within the control group. The overall risks for developing organic erectile dysfunction were 4.56-fold in patients with transfusion-naive thalassemia men compared with the comparison cohort after we adjusted for age and comorbidities. Our long-term cohort study results showed that in transfusion-naive thalassemia men, there was a higher risk for the development of organic erectile dysfunction, particularly in those patients with comorbidities. PMID:25837766

Bayes classifiers for imbalanced traffic accidents datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Mujalli, Randa Oqab; López, Griselda; Garach, Laura

2016-03-01

Traffic accidents data sets are usually imbalanced, where the number of instances classified under the killed or severe injuries class (minority) is much lower than those classified under the slight injuries class (majority). This, however, supposes a challenging problem for classification algorithms and may cause obtaining a model that well cover the slight injuries instances whereas the killed or severe injuries instances are misclassified frequently. Based on traffic accidents data collected on urban and suburban roads in Jordan for three years (2009-2011); three different data balancing techniques were used: under-sampling which removes some instances of the majority class, oversampling which creates new instances of the minority class and a mix technique that combines both. In addition, different Bayes classifiers were compared for the different imbalanced and balanced data sets: Averaged One-Dependence Estimators, Weightily Average One-Dependence Estimators, and Bayesian networks in order to identify factors that affect the severity of an accident. The results indicated that using the balanced data sets, especially those created using oversampling techniques, with Bayesian networks improved classifying a traffic accident according to its severity and reduced the misclassification of killed and severe injuries instances. On the other hand, the following variables were found to contribute to the occurrence of a killed causality or a severe injury in a traffic accident: number of vehicles involved, accident pattern, number of directions, accident type, lighting, surface condition, and speed limit. This work, to the knowledge of the authors, is the first that aims at analyzing historical data records for traffic accidents occurring in Jordan and the first to apply balancing techniques to analyze injury severity of traffic accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sophisticating a naive Liapunov function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.; Lewins, J.D.

1985-01-01

The art of the direct method of Liapunov to determine system stability is to construct a suitable Liapunov or V function where V is to be positive definite (PD), to shrink to a center, which may be conveniently chosen as the origin, and where V is the negative definite (ND). One aid to the art is to solve an approximation to the system equations in order to provide a candidate V function. It can happen, however, that the V function is not strictly ND but vanishes at a finite number of isolated points. Naively, one anticipates that stability has been demonstrated since the trajectory of the system at such points is only momentarily tangential and immediately enters a region of inward directed trajectories. To demonstrate stability rigorously requires the construction of a sophisticated Liapunov function from what can be called the naive original choice. In this paper, the authors demonstrate the method of perturbing the naive function in the context of the well-known second-order oscillator and then apply the method to a more complicated problem based on a prompt jump model for a nuclear fission reactor

Classifying LISA gravitational wave burst signals using Bayesian evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feroz, Farhan; Graff, Philip; Hobson, Michael P; Lasenby, Anthony; Gair, Jonathan R

2010-01-01

We consider the problem of characterization of burst sources detected by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) using the multi-modal nested sampling algorithm, MultiNest. We use MultiNest as a tool to search for modelled bursts from cosmic string cusps, and compute the Bayesian evidence associated with the cosmic string model. As an alternative burst model, we consider sine-Gaussian burst signals, and show how the evidence ratio can be used to choose between these two alternatives. We present results from an application of MultiNest to the last round of the Mock LISA Data Challenge, in which we were able to successfully detect and characterize all three of the cosmic string burst sources present in the release data set. We also present results of independent trials and show that MultiNest can detect cosmic string signals with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as low as ∼7 and sine-Gaussian signals with SNR as low as ∼8. In both cases, we show that the threshold at which the sources become detectable coincides with the SNR at which the evidence ratio begins to favour the correct model over the alternative.

Naive Bayes-Guided Bat Algorithm for Feature Selection

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Ahmed Majid Taha

2013-01-01

Full Text Available When the amount of data and information is said to double in every 20 months or so, feature selection has become highly important and beneficial. Further improvements in feature selection will positively affect a wide array of applications in fields such as pattern recognition, machine learning, or signal processing. Bio-inspired method called Bat Algorithm hybridized with a Naive Bayes classifier has been presented in this work. The performance of the proposed feature selection algorithm was investigated using twelve benchmark datasets from different domains and was compared to three other well-known feature selection algorithms. Discussion focused on four perspectives: number of features, classification accuracy, stability, and feature generalization. The results showed that BANB significantly outperformed other algorithms in selecting lower number of features, hence removing irrelevant, redundant, or noisy features while maintaining the classification accuracy. BANB is also proven to be more stable than other methods and is capable of producing more general feature subsets.

Naive Bayes-Guided Bat Algorithm for Feature Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Taha, Ahmed Majid; Mustapha, Aida; Chen, Soong-Der

2013-01-01

When the amount of data and information is said to double in every 20 months or so, feature selection has become highly important and beneficial. Further improvements in feature selection will positively affect a wide array of applications in fields such as pattern recognition, machine learning, or signal processing. Bio-inspired method called Bat Algorithm hybridized with a Naive Bayes classifier has been presented in this work. The performance of the proposed feature selection algorithm was investigated using twelve benchmark datasets from different domains and was compared to three other well-known feature selection algorithms. Discussion focused on four perspectives: number of features, classification accuracy, stability, and feature generalization. The results showed that BANB significantly outperformed other algorithms in selecting lower number of features, hence removing irrelevant, redundant, or noisy features while maintaining the classification accuracy. BANB is also proven to be more stable than other methods and is capable of producing more general feature subsets. PMID:24396295

Yugoslav Naive Art and Popular Culture

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Meta Kordiš

2009-12-01

After the Second World War, the Yugoslav socialist state also strove to equalize and democratize society through art by minimizing the differences between the producers and consumers of art. Such a policy led to the decentralization of culture by forming various cultural and artistic institutions and by holding cultural events and spectacles in the countryside and peripheral areas. Through these various informal ideological mechanisms, the state apparatus exercised its authority in socializing its people in the spirit of Yugoslav socialist self-management and the ideology of brotherhood and unity by joining together the producers and consumers of naive art from various ethnicities, cultures, and social classes. Unfortunately this transformed naive art at its peak of popularity into a decorative and souvenir artifact with a pastoral image and folklore motifs. The encouragement from the authorities on the one hand and the market on the other produced and reproduced simple art forms and narrative contents without a complex iconography, which were consumed uncritically and on a large scale. Consequently, this completely denied the core of naive art and resulted in its final devaluation.

Using Neural Networks to Classify Digitized Images of Galaxies

Science.gov (United States)

Goderya, S. N.; McGuire, P. C.

2000-12-01

Automated classification of Galaxies into Hubble types is of paramount importance to study the large scale structure of the Universe, particularly as survey projects like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey complete their data acquisition of one million galaxies. At present it is not possible to find robust and efficient artificial intelligence based galaxy classifiers. In this study we will summarize progress made in the development of automated galaxy classifiers using neural networks as machine learning tools. We explore the Bayesian linear algorithm, the higher order probabilistic network, the multilayer perceptron neural network and Support Vector Machine Classifier. The performance of any machine classifier is dependant on the quality of the parameters that characterize the different groups of galaxies. Our effort is to develop geometric and invariant moment based parameters as input to the machine classifiers instead of the raw pixel data. Such an approach reduces the dimensionality of the classifier considerably, and removes the effects of scaling and rotation, and makes it easier to solve for the unknown parameters in the galaxy classifier. To judge the quality of training and classification we develop the concept of Mathews coefficients for the galaxy classification community. Mathews coefficients are single numbers that quantify classifier performance even with unequal prior probabilities of the classes.

Derivation of novel human ground state naive pluripotent stem cells.

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Gafni, Ohad; Weinberger, Leehee; Mansour, Abed AlFatah; Manor, Yair S; Chomsky, Elad; Ben-Yosef, Dalit; Kalma, Yael; Viukov, Sergey; Maza, Itay; Zviran, Asaf; Rais, Yoach; Shipony, Zohar; Mukamel, Zohar; Krupalnik, Vladislav; Zerbib, Mirie; Geula, Shay; Caspi, Inbal; Schneir, Dan; Shwartz, Tamar; Gilad, Shlomit; Amann-Zalcenstein, Daniela; Benjamin, Sima; Amit, Ido; Tanay, Amos; Massarwa, Rada; Novershtern, Noa; Hanna, Jacob H

2013-12-12

Mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells are isolated from the inner cell mass of blastocysts, and can be preserved in vitro in a naive inner-cell-mass-like configuration by providing exogenous stimulation with leukaemia inhibitory factor (LIF) and small molecule inhibition of ERK1/ERK2 and GSK3β signalling (termed 2i/LIF conditions). Hallmarks of naive pluripotency include driving Oct4 (also known as Pou5f1) transcription by its distal enhancer, retaining a pre-inactivation X chromosome state, and global reduction in DNA methylation and in H3K27me3 repressive chromatin mark deposition on developmental regulatory gene promoters. Upon withdrawal of 2i/LIF, naive mouse ES cells can drift towards a primed pluripotent state resembling that of the post-implantation epiblast. Although human ES cells share several molecular features with naive mouse ES cells, they also share a variety of epigenetic properties with primed murine epiblast stem cells (EpiSCs). These include predominant use of the proximal enhancer element to maintain OCT4 expression, pronounced tendency for X chromosome inactivation in most female human ES cells, increase in DNA methylation and prominent deposition of H3K27me3 and bivalent domain acquisition on lineage regulatory genes. The feasibility of establishing human ground state naive pluripotency in vitro with equivalent molecular and functional features to those characterized in mouse ES cells remains to be defined. Here we establish defined conditions that facilitate the derivation of genetically unmodified human naive pluripotent stem cells from already established primed human ES cells, from somatic cells through induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cell reprogramming or directly from blastocysts. The novel naive pluripotent cells validated herein retain molecular characteristics and functional properties that are highly similar to mouse naive ES cells, and distinct from conventional primed human pluripotent cells. This includes competence in the generation

SAR Target Recognition Based on Multi-feature Multiple Representation Classifier Fusion

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Zhang Xinzheng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR image target recognition algorithm based on multi-feature multiple representation learning classifier fusion. First, it extracts three features from the SAR images, namely principal component analysis, wavelet transform, and Two-Dimensional Slice Zernike Moments (2DSZM features. Second, we harness the sparse representation classifier and the cooperative representation classifier with the above-mentioned features to get six predictive labels. Finally, we adopt classifier fusion to obtain the final recognition decision. We researched three different classifier fusion algorithms in our experiments, and the results demonstrate thatusing Bayesian decision fusion gives thebest recognition performance. The method based on multi-feature multiple representation learning classifier fusion integrates the discrimination of multi-features and combines the sparse and cooperative representation classification performance to gain complementary advantages and to improve recognition accuracy. The experiments are based on the Moving and Stationary Target Acquisition and Recognition (MSTAR database,and they demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

An automated land-use mapping comparison of the Bayesian maximum likelihood and linear discriminant analysis algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Tom, C. H.; Miller, L. D.

1984-01-01

The Bayesian maximum likelihood parametric classifier has been tested against the data-based formulation designated 'linear discrimination analysis', using the 'GLIKE' decision and "CLASSIFY' classification algorithms in the Landsat Mapping System. Identical supervised training sets, USGS land use/land cover classes, and various combinations of Landsat image and ancilliary geodata variables, were used to compare the algorithms' thematic mapping accuracy on a single-date summer subscene, with a cellularized USGS land use map of the same time frame furnishing the ground truth reference. CLASSIFY, which accepts a priori class probabilities, is found to be more accurate than GLIKE, which assumes equal class occurrences, for all three mapping variable sets and both levels of detail. These results may be generalized to direct accuracy, time, cost, and flexibility advantages of linear discriminant analysis over Bayesian methods.

Primate-specific endogenous retrovirus-driven transcription defines naive-like stem cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jichang; Xie, Gangcai; Singh, Manvendra; Ghanbarian, Avazeh T; Raskó, Tamás; Szvetnik, Attila; Cai, Huiqiang; Besser, Daniel; Prigione, Alessandro; Fuchs, Nina V; Schumann, Gerald G; Chen, Wei; Lorincz, Matthew C; Ivics, Zoltán; Hurst, Laurence D; Izsvák, Zsuzsanna

2014-12-18

Naive embryonic stem cells hold great promise for research and therapeutics as they have broad and robust developmental potential. While such cells are readily derived from mouse blastocysts it has not been possible to isolate human equivalents easily, although human naive-like cells have been artificially generated (rather than extracted) by coercion of human primed embryonic stem cells by modifying culture conditions or through transgenic modification. Here we show that a sub-population within cultures of human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) and induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) manifests key properties of naive state cells. These naive-like cells can be genetically tagged, and are associated with elevated transcription of HERVH, a primate-specific endogenous retrovirus. HERVH elements provide functional binding sites for a combination of naive pluripotency transcription factors, including LBP9, recently recognized as relevant to naivety in mice. LBP9-HERVH drives hESC-specific alternative and chimaeric transcripts, including pluripotency-modulating long non-coding RNAs. Disruption of LBP9, HERVH and HERVH-derived transcripts compromises self-renewal. These observations define HERVH expression as a hallmark of naive-like hESCs, and establish novel primate-specific transcriptional circuitry regulating pluripotency.

Naïve Bayesian Classifier for Selecting Good/Bad Projects during the Early Stage of International Construction Bidding Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Woosik Jang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Since the 1970s, revenues generated by Korean contractors in international construction have increased rapidly, exceeding USD 70 billion per year in recent years. However, Korean contractors face significant risks from market uncertainty and sensitivity to economic volatility and technical difficulties. As the volatility of these risks threatens project profitability, approximately 15% of bad projects were found to account for 74% of losses from the same international construction sector. Anticipating bad projects via preemptive risk management can better prevent losses so that contractors can enhance the efficiency of bidding decisions during the early stages of a project cycle. In line with these objectives, this paper examines the effect of such factors on the degree of project profitability. The Naïve Bayesian classifier is applied to identify a good project screening tool, which increases practical applicability using binomial variables with limited information that is obtainable in the early stages. The proposed model produced superior classification results that adequately reflect contractor views of risk. It is anticipated that when users apply the proposed model based on their own knowledge and expertise, overall firm profit rates will increase as a result of early abandonment of bad projects as well as the prioritization of good projects before final bidding decisions are made.

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

A comparison of machine learning and Bayesian modelling for molecular serotyping.

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Richard; Wernisch, Lorenz

2017-08-11

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model. We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays. With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological

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Full Text Available Oth.Bld.05.AllAg.Naive_T_cells hg19 TFs and others Blood Naive T cells SRX1425808 h...ttp://dbarchive.biosciencedbc.jp/kyushu-u/hg19/assembled/Oth.Bld.05.AllAg.Naive_T_cells.bed ...

Human Activity Recognition by Combining a Small Number of Classifiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Nazabal, Alfredo; Garcia-Moreno, Pablo; Artes-Rodriguez, Antonio; Ghahramani, Zoubin

2016-09-01

We consider the problem of daily human activity recognition (HAR) using multiple wireless inertial sensors, and specifically, HAR systems with a very low number of sensors, each one providing an estimation of the performed activities. We propose new Bayesian models to combine the output of the sensors. The models are based on a soft outputs combination of individual classifiers to deal with the small number of sensors. We also incorporate the dynamic nature of human activities as a first-order homogeneous Markov chain. We develop both inductive and transductive inference methods for each model to be employed in supervised and semisupervised situations, respectively. Using different real HAR databases, we compare our classifiers combination models against a single classifier that employs all the signals from the sensors. Our models exhibit consistently a reduction of the error rate and an increase of robustness against sensor failures. Our models also outperform other classifiers combination models that do not consider soft outputs and an Markovian structure of the human activities.

Comparisons and Selections of Features and Classifiers for Short Text Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ye; Zhou, Zhi; Jin, Shan; Liu, Debin; Lu, Mi

2017-10-01

Short text is considerably different from traditional long text documents due to its shortness and conciseness, which somehow hinders the applications of conventional machine learning and data mining algorithms in short text classification. According to traditional artificial intelligence methods, we divide short text classification into three steps, namely preprocessing, feature selection and classifier comparison. In this paper, we have illustrated step-by-step how we approach our goals. Specifically, in feature selection, we compared the performance and robustness of the four methods of one-hot encoding, tf-idf weighting, word2vec and paragraph2vec, and in the classification part, we deliberately chose and compared Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, K-nearest Neighbor and Decision Tree as our classifiers. Then, we compared and analysed the classifiers horizontally with each other and vertically with feature selections. Regarding the datasets, we crawled more than 400,000 short text files from Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and manually labeled them into two classes, the big and the small. There are eight labels in the big class, and 59 labels in the small class.

Application of an efficient Bayesian discretization method to biomedical data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gopalakrishnan Vanathi

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Several data mining methods require data that are discrete, and other methods often perform better with discrete data. We introduce an efficient Bayesian discretization (EBD method for optimal discretization of variables that runs efficiently on high-dimensional biomedical datasets. The EBD method consists of two components, namely, a Bayesian score to evaluate discretizations and a dynamic programming search procedure to efficiently search the space of possible discretizations. We compared the performance of EBD to Fayyad and Irani's (FI discretization method, which is commonly used for discretization. Results On 24 biomedical datasets obtained from high-throughput transcriptomic and proteomic studies, the classification performances of the C4.5 classifier and the naïve Bayes classifier were statistically significantly better when the predictor variables were discretized using EBD over FI. EBD was statistically significantly more stable to the variability of the datasets than FI. However, EBD was less robust, though not statistically significantly so, than FI and produced slightly more complex discretizations than FI. Conclusions On a range of biomedical datasets, a Bayesian discretization method (EBD yielded better classification performance and stability but was less robust than the widely used FI discretization method. The EBD discretization method is easy to implement, permits the incorporation of prior knowledge and belief, and is sufficiently fast for application to high-dimensional data.

Using Naïve Bayesian Analysis to Determine Imaging Characteristics of KRAS Mutations in Metastatic Colon Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Pershad, Yash; Govindan, Siddharth; Hara, Amy K; Borad, Mitesh J; Bekaii-Saab, Tanios; Wallace, Alex; Albadawi, Hassan; Oklu, Rahmi

2017-09-02

Genotype, particularly Ras status, greatly affects prognosis and treatment of liver metastasis in colon cancer patients. This pilot aimed to apply word frequency analysis and a naive Bayes classifier on radiology reports to extract distinguishing imaging descriptors of wild-type colon cancer patients and those with v-Ki-ras2 Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS) mutations. In this institutional-review-board-approved study, we compiled a SNaPshot mutation analysis dataset from 457 colon adenocarcinoma patients. From this cohort of patients, we analyzed radiology reports of 299 patients (> 32,000 reports) who either were wild-type (147 patients) or had a KRAS (152 patients) mutation. Our algorithm determined word frequency within the wild-type and mutant radiology reports and used a naive Bayes classifier to determine the probability of a given word belonging to either group. The classifier determined that words with a greater than 50% chance of being in the KRAS mutation group and which had the highest absolute probability difference compared to the wild-type group included: "several", "innumerable", "confluent", and "numerous" ( p colon adenocarcinoma. Moreover, likely characteristic imaging traits of mutant tumors make probabilistic word analysis useful in identifying unique characteristics and disease course, with applications ranging from radiology and pathology reports to clinical notes.

User-customized brain computer interfaces using Bayesian optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Bashashati, Hossein; Ward, Rabab K; Bashashati, Ali

2016-04-01

The brain characteristics of different people are not the same. Brain computer interfaces (BCIs) should thus be customized for each individual person. In motor-imagery based synchronous BCIs, a number of parameters (referred to as hyper-parameters) including the EEG frequency bands, the channels and the time intervals from which the features are extracted should be pre-determined based on each subject's brain characteristics. To determine the hyper-parameter values, previous work has relied on manual or semi-automatic methods that are not applicable to high-dimensional search spaces. In this paper, we propose a fully automatic, scalable and computationally inexpensive algorithm that uses Bayesian optimization to tune these hyper-parameters. We then build different classifiers trained on the sets of hyper-parameter values proposed by the Bayesian optimization. A final classifier aggregates the results of the different classifiers. We have applied our method to 21 subjects from three BCI competition datasets. We have conducted rigorous statistical tests, and have shown the positive impact of hyper-parameter optimization in improving the accuracy of BCIs. Furthermore, We have compared our results to those reported in the literature. Unlike the best reported results in the literature, which are based on more sophisticated feature extraction and classification methods, and rely on prestudies to determine the hyper-parameter values, our method has the advantage of being fully automated, uses less sophisticated feature extraction and classification methods, and yields similar or superior results compared to the best performing designs in the literature.

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On the structure of Bayesian network for Indonesian text document paraphrase identification

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Ario Harry; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Paraphrase identification is an important process within natural language processing. The idea is to automatically recognize phrases that have different forms but contain same meanings. For examples if we input query “causing fire hazard”, then the computer has to recognize this query that this query has same meaning as “the cause of fire hazard. Paraphrasing is an activity that reveals the meaning of an expression, writing, or speech using different words or forms, especially to achieve greater clarity. In this research we will focus on classifying two Indonesian sentences whether it is a paraphrase to each other or not. There are four steps in this research, first is preprocessing, second is feature extraction, third is classifier building, and the last is performance evaluation. Preprocessing consists of tokenization, non-alphanumerical removal, and stemming. After preprocessing we will conduct feature extraction in order to build new features from given dataset. There are two kinds of features in the research, syntactic features and semantic features. Syntactic features consist of normalized levenshtein distance feature, term-frequency based cosine similarity feature, and LCS (Longest Common Subsequence) feature. Semantic features consist of Wu and Palmer feature and Shortest Path Feature. We use Bayesian Networks as the method of training the classifier. Parameter estimation that we use is called MAP (Maximum A Posteriori). For structure learning of Bayesian Networks DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph), we use BDeu (Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent uniform) scoring function and for finding DAG with the best BDeu score, we use K2 algorithm. In evaluation step we perform cross-validation. The average result that we get from testing the classifier as follows: Precision 75.2%, Recall 76.5%, F1-Measure 75.8% and Accuracy 75.6%.

Performance of svm, k-nn and nbc classifiers for text-independent speaker identification with and without modelling through merging models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yussouf Nahayo

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes some methods of robust text-independent speaker identification based on Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM. We implemented a combination of GMM model with a set of classifiers such as Support Vector Machine (SVM, K-Nearest Neighbour (K-NN, and Naive Bayes Classifier (NBC. In order to improve the identification rate, we developed a combination of hybrid systems by using validation technique. The experiments were performed on the dialect DR1 of the TIMIT corpus. The results have showed a better performance for the developed technique compared to the individual techniques.

Bayesian prediction of bacterial growth temperature range based on genome sequences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Dan Børge; Vesth, Tammi Camilla; Hallin, Peter Fischer

2012-01-01

Background: The preferred habitat of a given bacterium can provide a hint of which types of enzymes of potential industrial interest it might produce. These might include enzymes that are stable and active at very high or very low temperatures. Being able to accurately predict this based...... on a genomic sequence, would thus allow for an efficient and targeted search for production organisms, reducing the need for culturing experiments. Results: This study found a total of 40 protein families useful for distinction between three thermophilicity classes (thermophiles, mesophiles and psychrophiles...... that protein families associated with specific thermophilicity classes can provide effective input data for thermophilicity prediction, and that the naive Bayesian approach is effective for such a task. The program created for this study is able to efficiently distinguish between thermophilic, mesophilic...

PERBANDINGAN JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN DAN NAIVE BAYES DALAM DETEKSI SESEORANG TERKENA PENYAKIT STROKE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Rohmana

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Tujuan penelitian ini adalah membuat aplikasi Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan dan Naive Bayes untuk memprediksi penyakit stroke dan membandingkan tingkat akuratan dari kedua metode yang digunakan. Sebuah aplikasi software MATLAB diciptakan untuk mendeteksi seseorang Suspect stroke.  Metode yang baik dalam mesin pembelajaran berdasarkan data training adalah Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan dan Naive Bayes, variabel data faktor gejala penyakit stroke digunakan sebagai data training dalam proses pembelajaran dari sistem yang dibuat menentukan prediksi penyakit stroke. Dari 120 data percobaan yang dilakukan, akan dihitung akurasi hasil kerja sistem yang dibagi menjadi data pelatihan dan data pengujian. Diperoleh persentase hasil kerja sistem yaitu Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan sebesar 71,11 persen, sedangkan Naive Bayes sebesar 80,55 persen. Naive Bayes lebih akurat daripada Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan dalam hal pengambilan keputusan data baru namun Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan memiliki teknik yang lebih bagus dibandingkan dengan Naive Bayes. Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan mempunyai karakteristik belajar dari data sebelumnya.The purpose of this research are make application system of Artificial Neural Network and Naive Bayes to predict stroke  and to compare the accuration between of  both methods. An application applying MATLAB software has been invented to detect a stroke suspect. A good method in learning machine based on the training data is Artificial Neural Network and Naive Bayes method, by using the data variable of some common stroke symptoms used as the training data in the learning process of the system which is going to be built to determine whether prediction of stroke disease. From 120 experiments data which had been done, will be counted the accuracy of the system which divided into some training data and the other experiment data. Retrieved the percentage of  accuracy system, The Artificial Neural Network is 71,11 percent whereas Naive Bayes is 80,555 percent. Naive Bayes

Blocking the recruitment of naive CD4+ T cells reverses immunosuppression in breast cancer

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Shicheng Su; Ling Lin; Yunjie Zeng; Nengtai Ouyang; Xiuying Cui; Herui Yao; Fengxi Su; Jian-dong Huang; Judy Lieberman; Qiang Liu; Erwei Song; Jianyou Liao; Jiang Liu; Di Huang; Chonghua He; Fei Chen; LinBing Yang; Wei Wu; Jianing Chen

2017-01-01

The origin of tumor-infiltrating Tregs,critical mediators of tumor immunosuppression,is unclear.Here,we show that tumor-infiltrating naive CD4+ T cells and Tregs in human breast cancer have overlapping TCR repertoires,while hardly overlap with circulating Tregs,suggesting that intratumoral Tregs mainly develop from naive T cells in situ rather than from recruited Tregs.Furthermore,the abundance of naive CD4+ T cells and Tregs is closely correlated,both indicating poor prognosis for breast cancer patients.Naive CD4+ T cells adhere to tumor slices in proportion to the abundance of CCLl8-producing macrophages.Moreover,adoptively transferred human naive CD4+ T cells infiltrate human breast cancer orthotopic xenografts in a CCL18-dependent manner.In human breast cancer xenografts in humanized mice,blocking the recruitment of naive CD4+ T cells into tumor by knocking down the expression of PITPNM3,a CCL18 receptor,significantly reduces intratumoral Tregs and inhibits tumor progression.These findings suggest that breast tumor-infiltrating Tregs arise from chemotaxis of circulating naive CD4+ T cells that differentiate into Tregs in situ.Inhibiting naive CD4+ T cell recruitment into tumors by interfering with PITPNM3 recognition of CCL18 may be an attractive strategy for anticancer immunotherapy.

Blocking the recruitment of naive CD4+ T cells reverses immunosuppression in breast cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Shicheng; Liao, Jianyou; Liu, Jiang; Huang, Di; He, Chonghua; Chen, Fei; Yang, LinBing; Wu, Wei; Chen, Jianing; Lin, Ling; Zeng, Yunjie; Ouyang, Nengtai; Cui, Xiuying; Yao, Herui; Su, Fengxi; Huang, Jian-dong; Lieberman, Judy; Liu, Qiang; Song, Erwei

2017-01-01

The origin of tumor-infiltrating Tregs, critical mediators of tumor immunosuppression, is unclear. Here, we show that tumor-infiltrating naive CD4+ T cells and Tregs in human breast cancer have overlapping TCR repertoires, while hardly overlap with circulating Tregs, suggesting that intratumoral Tregs mainly develop from naive T cells in situ rather than from recruited Tregs. Furthermore, the abundance of naive CD4+ T cells and Tregs is closely correlated, both indicating poor prognosis for breast cancer patients. Naive CD4+ T cells adhere to tumor slices in proportion to the abundance of CCL18-producing macrophages. Moreover, adoptively transferred human naive CD4+ T cells infiltrate human breast cancer orthotopic xenografts in a CCL18-dependent manner. In human breast cancer xenografts in humanized mice, blocking the recruitment of naive CD4+ T cells into tumor by knocking down the expression of PITPNM3, a CCL18 receptor, significantly reduces intratumoral Tregs and inhibits tumor progression. These findings suggest that breast tumor-infiltrating Tregs arise from chemotaxis of circulating naive CD4+ T cells that differentiate into Tregs in situ. Inhibiting naive CD4+ T cell recruitment into tumors by interfering with PITPNM3 recognition of CCL18 may be an attractive strategy for anticancer immunotherapy. PMID:28290464

Naive Juveniles Are More Likely to Become Breeders after Witnessing Predator Mobbing.

Science.gov (United States)

Griesser, Michael; Suzuki, Toshitaka N

2017-01-01

Responding appropriately during the first predatory attack in life is often critical for survival. In many social species, naive juveniles acquire this skill from conspecifics, but its fitness consequences remain virtually unknown. Here we experimentally demonstrate how naive juvenile Siberian jays (Perisoreus infaustus) derive a long-term fitness benefit from witnessing knowledgeable adults mobbing their principal predator, the goshawk (Accipiter gentilis). Siberian jays live in family groups of two to six individuals that also can include unrelated nonbreeders. Field observations showed that Siberian jays encounter predators only rarely, and, indeed, naive juveniles do not respond to predator models when on their own but do when observing other individuals mobbing them. Predator exposure experiments demonstrated that naive juveniles had a substantially higher first-winter survival after observing knowledgeable group members mobbing a goshawk model, increasing their likelihood of acquiring a breeding position later in life. Previous research showed that naive individuals may learn from others how to respond to predators, care for offspring, or choose mates, generally assuming that social learning has long-term fitness consequences without empirical evidence. Our results demonstrate a long-term fitness benefit of vertical social learning for naive individuals in the wild, emphasizing its evolutionary importance in animals, including humans.

Two separate defects affecting true naive or virtual memory T cell precursors combine to reduce naive T cell responses with aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Renkema, Kristin R; Li, Gang; Wu, Angela; Smithey, Megan J; Nikolich-Žugich, Janko

2014-01-01

Naive T cell responses are eroded with aging. We and others have recently shown that unimmunized old mice lose ≥ 70% of Ag-specific CD8 T cell precursors and that many of the remaining precursors acquire a virtual (central) memory (VM; CD44(hi)CD62L(hi)) phenotype. In this study, we demonstrate that unimmunized TCR transgenic (TCRTg) mice also undergo massive VM conversion with age, exhibiting rapid effector function upon both TCR and cytokine triggering. Age-related VM conversion in TCRTg mice directly depended on replacement of the original TCRTg specificity by endogenous TCRα rearrangements, indicating that TCR signals must be critical in VM conversion. Importantly, we found that VM conversion had adverse functional effects in both old wild-type and old TCRTg mice; that is, old VM, but not old true naive, T cells exhibited blunted TCR-mediated, but not IL-15-mediated, proliferation. This selective proliferative senescence correlated with increased apoptosis in old VM cells in response to peptide, but decreased apoptosis in response to homeostatic cytokines IL-7 and IL-15. Our results identify TCR as the key factor in differential maintenance and function of Ag-specific precursors in unimmunized mice with aging, and they demonstrate that two separate age-related defects--drastic reduction in true naive T cell precursors and impaired proliferative capacity of their VM cousins--combine to reduce naive T cell responses with aging.

Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

CERN Document Server

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

2016-01-01

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

User-customized brain computer interfaces using Bayesian optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Bashashati, Hossein; Ward, Rabab K.; Bashashati, Ali

2016-04-01

Objective. The brain characteristics of different people are not the same. Brain computer interfaces (BCIs) should thus be customized for each individual person. In motor-imagery based synchronous BCIs, a number of parameters (referred to as hyper-parameters) including the EEG frequency bands, the channels and the time intervals from which the features are extracted should be pre-determined based on each subject’s brain characteristics. Approach. To determine the hyper-parameter values, previous work has relied on manual or semi-automatic methods that are not applicable to high-dimensional search spaces. In this paper, we propose a fully automatic, scalable and computationally inexpensive algorithm that uses Bayesian optimization to tune these hyper-parameters. We then build different classifiers trained on the sets of hyper-parameter values proposed by the Bayesian optimization. A final classifier aggregates the results of the different classifiers. Main Results. We have applied our method to 21 subjects from three BCI competition datasets. We have conducted rigorous statistical tests, and have shown the positive impact of hyper-parameter optimization in improving the accuracy of BCIs. Furthermore, We have compared our results to those reported in the literature. Significance. Unlike the best reported results in the literature, which are based on more sophisticated feature extraction and classification methods, and rely on prestudies to determine the hyper-parameter values, our method has the advantage of being fully automated, uses less sophisticated feature extraction and classification methods, and yields similar or superior results compared to the best performing designs in the literature.

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Full Text Available InP.Bld.50.AllAg.Naive_T_cells hg19 Input control Blood Naive T cells SRX1425815,SR...X1425816,SRX1425814 http://dbarchive.biosciencedbc.jp/kyushu-u/hg19/assembled/InP.Bld.50.AllAg.Naive_T_cells.bed ...

Naive Theories of Social Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, Marjorie

2012-01-01

Four studies examined children's (ages 3-10, Total N = 235) naive theories of social groups, in particular, their expectations about how group memberships constrain social interactions. After introduction to novel groups of people, preschoolers (ages 3-5) reliably expected agents from one group to harm members of the other group (rather than…

Monitoring Human Development Goals: A Straightforward (Bayesian) Methodology for Cross-National Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Abayomi, Kobi; Pizarro, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

We offer a straightforward framework for measurement of progress, across many dimensions, using cross-national social indices, which we classify as linear combinations of multivariate country level data onto a univariate score. We suggest a Bayesian approach which yields probabilistic (confidence type) intervals for the point estimates of country…

Subtrochanteric fractures in bisphosphonate-naive patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adachi, Jonathan D; Lyles, Kenneth; Boonen, Steven

2011-01-01

Our purpose was to characterize the risks of osteoporosis-related subtrochanteric fractures in bisphosphonate-naive individuals. Baseline characteristics of patients enrolled in the HORIZON-Recurrent Fracture Trial with a study-qualifying hip fracture were examined, comparing those who sustained ...

636 ART-naive patients were enrolled; 361 completed 6 months of ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. 636 ART-naive patients were enrolled; 361 completed 6 months of follow-up (282 received supplements and 79 received standard care). 636 ART-naive patients were enrolled; 361 completed 6 months of follow-up (282 received supplements and 79 received standard care).

Graphic Symbol Recognition using Graph Based Signature and Bayesian Network Classifier

OpenAIRE

Luqman, Muhammad Muzzamil; Brouard, Thierry; Ramel, Jean-Yves

2010-01-01

We present a new approach for recognition of complex graphic symbols in technical documents. Graphic symbol recognition is a well known challenge in the field of document image analysis and is at heart of most graphic recognition systems. Our method uses structural approach for symbol representation and statistical classifier for symbol recognition. In our system we represent symbols by their graph based signatures: a graphic symbol is vectorized and is converted to an attributed relational g...

Dating ancient Chinese celadon porcelain by neutron activation analysis and bayesian classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Guoxi; Feng Songlin; Feng Xiangqian; Zhu Jihao; Yan Lingtong; Li Li

2009-01-01

Dating ancient Chinese porcelain is one of the most important and difficult problems in porcelain archaeological field. Eighteen elements in bodies of ancient celadon porcelains fired in Southern Song to Yuan period (AD 1127-1368) and Ming dynasty (AD 1368-1644), including La, Sm, U, Ce, etc., were determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA). After the outliers of experimental data were excluded and multivariate normal distribution was tested, and Bayesian classification was used for dating of 165 ancient celadon porcelain samples. The results show that 98.2% of total ancient celadon porcelain samples are classified correctly. It means that NAA and Bayesian classification are very useful for dating ancient porcelain. (authors)

Genome-wide prediction of discrete traits using bayesian regressions and machine learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Forni Selma

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic selection has gained much attention and the main goal is to increase the predictive accuracy and the genetic gain in livestock using dense marker information. Most methods dealing with the large p (number of covariates small n (number of observations problem have dealt only with continuous traits, but there are many important traits in livestock that are recorded in a discrete fashion (e.g. pregnancy outcome, disease resistance. It is necessary to evaluate alternatives to analyze discrete traits in a genome-wide prediction context. Methods This study shows two threshold versions of Bayesian regressions (Bayes A and Bayesian LASSO and two machine learning algorithms (boosting and random forest to analyze discrete traits in a genome-wide prediction context. These methods were evaluated using simulated and field data to predict yet-to-be observed records. Performances were compared based on the models' predictive ability. Results The simulation showed that machine learning had some advantages over Bayesian regressions when a small number of QTL regulated the trait under pure additivity. However, differences were small and disappeared with a large number of QTL. Bayesian threshold LASSO and boosting achieved the highest accuracies, whereas Random Forest presented the highest classification performance. Random Forest was the most consistent method in detecting resistant and susceptible animals, phi correlation was up to 81% greater than Bayesian regressions. Random Forest outperformed other methods in correctly classifying resistant and susceptible animals in the two pure swine lines evaluated. Boosting and Bayes A were more accurate with crossbred data. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that the best method for genome-wide prediction may depend on the genetic basis of the population analyzed. All methods were less accurate at correctly classifying intermediate animals than extreme animals. Among the different

Bayesian Graphical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2016-01-01

Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

The BANYAN-Sigma Bayesian classifier and the search for isolated planetary-mass objects

Science.gov (United States)

Gagné, Jonathan

2018-01-01

I will present new developments in the construction of a Bayesian classification tool to identify members of 22 young associations within 150 pc from partially complete kinematic data sets such as Gaia-DR1 and DR2. The new BANYAN-Sigma tool makes it possible to quickly analyze massive data sets and yields a better classification performance than all its predecessors. It will open the door to large-scale surveys to complete the stellar and substellar populations of nearby associations, which will provide deep insights in the low-mass end of the initial mass function and valuable age-calibrated targets for exoplanet surveys.I will also presents preliminary results of a search for T-type isolated planetary-mass objects in these young associations, based on BANYAN-Sigma and a cross-match between the AllWISE and 2MASS-Reject catalogs.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2003-01-01

As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

Autoregressive Integrated Adaptive Neural Networks Classifier for EEG-P300 Classification

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Demi Soetraprawata

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Brain Computer Interface has a potency to be applied in mechatronics apparatus and vehicles in the future. Compared to the other techniques, EEG is the most preferred for BCI designs. In this paper, a new adaptive neural network classifier of different mental activities from EEG-based P300 signals is proposed. To overcome the over-training that is caused by noisy and non-stationary data, the EEG signals are filtered and extracted using autoregressive models before passed to the adaptive neural networks classifier. To test the improvement in the EEG classification performance with the proposed method, comparative experiments were conducted using Bayesian Linear Discriminant Analysis. The experiment results show that the all subjects achieve a classification accuracy of 100%.

Classifying smoking urges via machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Dumortier, Antoine; Beckjord, Ellen; Shiffman, Saul; Sejdić, Ervin

2016-12-01

Smoking is the largest preventable cause of death and diseases in the developed world, and advances in modern electronics and machine learning can help us deliver real-time intervention to smokers in novel ways. In this paper, we examine different machine learning approaches to use situational features associated with having or not having urges to smoke during a quit attempt in order to accurately classify high-urge states. To test our machine learning approaches, specifically, Bayes, discriminant analysis and decision tree learning methods, we used a dataset collected from over 300 participants who had initiated a quit attempt. The three classification approaches are evaluated observing sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and precision. The outcome of the analysis showed that algorithms based on feature selection make it possible to obtain high classification rates with only a few features selected from the entire dataset. The classification tree method outperformed the naive Bayes and discriminant analysis methods, with an accuracy of the classifications up to 86%. These numbers suggest that machine learning may be a suitable approach to deal with smoking cessation matters, and to predict smoking urges, outlining a potential use for mobile health applications. In conclusion, machine learning classifiers can help identify smoking situations, and the search for the best features and classifier parameters significantly improves the algorithms' performance. In addition, this study also supports the usefulness of new technologies in improving the effect of smoking cessation interventions, the management of time and patients by therapists, and thus the optimization of available health care resources. Future studies should focus on providing more adaptive and personalized support to people who really need it, in a minimum amount of time by developing novel expert systems capable of delivering real-time interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights

Bayesian Inference of Ecological Interactions from Spatial Data

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Christopher R. Stephens

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The characterization and quantification of ecological interactions and the construction of species’ distributions and their associated ecological niches are of fundamental theoretical and practical importance. In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian inference framework, which, using spatial data, offers a general formalism within which ecological interactions may be characterized and quantified. Interactions are identified through deviations of the spatial distribution of co-occurrences of spatial variables relative to a benchmark for the non-interacting system and based on a statistical ensemble of spatial cells. The formalism allows for the integration of both biotic and abiotic factors of arbitrary resolution. We concentrate on the conceptual and mathematical underpinnings of the formalism, showing how, using the naive Bayes approximation, it can be used to not only compare and contrast the relative contribution from each variable, but also to construct species’ distributions and ecological niches based on an arbitrary variable type. We also show how non-linear interactions between distinct niche variables can be identified and the degree of confounding between variables accounted for.

Bayesian signal processing of pulse shapes for background rejection in the Majorana Demonstrator

Science.gov (United States)

Shanks, Benjamin; Majorana Collaboration

2015-10-01

The Majorana Demonstrator uses high purity germanium (HPGe) detectors in the p-type point contact (PPC) geometry to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay (0 νββ) in 76Ge. Due to the unique electric potential created within the PPC geometry, the detailed pulse shape depends on the number of energy depositions contained within a given event. Pulse shape analysis (PSA) techniques can be used to estimate the number of separate depositions which combine to form a single pulse. This information can be used to discriminate between 0 νββ candidate events, which deposit energy at a single detector site, and gamma ray background, which can scatter and deposit energy in multiple locations. The problem of determining whether a pulse is single- or multi-site is well suited to Bayesian classifiers. Once trained via supervised machine learning, these algorithms can perform nonlinear cuts against multi-site events using the estimated probability function as a discriminator. The Bayesian approach can also be naturally extended to incorporate a model of the physical process responsible for signal generation within the detector. Presented here is an overview of the Bayesian classifier developed for use on the Demonstrator. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Nuclear Physics, the Particle Astrophysics Program of the National Science Foundation, and the Sanford Underground Research Facility.

Word2Vec inversion and traditional text classifiers for phenotyping lupus.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Clayton A; Jacobs, Alexander D; Marques, Cassios K; Oates, James C; Kamen, Diane L; Anderson, Paul E; Obeid, Jihad S

2017-08-22

Identifying patients with certain clinical criteria based on manual chart review of doctors' notes is a daunting task given the massive amounts of text notes in the electronic health records (EHR). This task can be automated using text classifiers based on Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques along with pattern recognition machine learning (ML) algorithms. The aim of this research is to evaluate the performance of traditional classifiers for identifying patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) in comparison with a newer Bayesian word vector method. We obtained clinical notes for patients with SLE diagnosis along with controls from the Rheumatology Clinic (662 total patients). Sparse bag-of-words (BOWs) and Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) Concept Unique Identifiers (CUIs) matrices were produced using NLP pipelines. These matrices were subjected to several different NLP classifiers: neural networks, random forests, naïve Bayes, support vector machines, and Word2Vec inversion, a Bayesian inversion method. Performance was measured by calculating accuracy and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of a cross-validated (CV) set and a separate testing set. We calculated the accuracy of the ICD-9 billing codes as a baseline to be 90.00% with an AUC of 0.900, the shallow neural network with CUIs to be 92.10% with an AUC of 0.970, the random forest with BOWs to be 95.25% with an AUC of 0.994, the random forest with CUIs to be 95.00% with an AUC of 0.979, and the Word2Vec inversion to be 90.03% with an AUC of 0.905. Our results suggest that a shallow neural network with CUIs and random forests with both CUIs and BOWs are the best classifiers for this lupus phenotyping task. The Word2Vec inversion method failed to significantly beat the ICD-9 code classification, but yielded promising results. This method does not require explicit features and is more adaptable to non-binary classification tasks. The Word2Vec inversion is

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

OpenAIRE

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

Single molecule force spectroscopy at high data acquisition: A Bayesian nonparametric analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Sgouralis, Ioannis; Whitmore, Miles; Lapidus, Lisa; Comstock, Matthew J.; Pressé, Steve

2018-03-01

Bayesian nonparametrics (BNPs) are poised to have a deep impact in the analysis of single molecule data as they provide posterior probabilities over entire models consistent with the supplied data, not just model parameters of one preferred model. Thus they provide an elegant and rigorous solution to the difficult problem encountered when selecting an appropriate candidate model. Nevertheless, BNPs' flexibility to learn models and their associated parameters from experimental data is a double-edged sword. Most importantly, BNPs are prone to increasing the complexity of the estimated models due to artifactual features present in time traces. Thus, because of experimental challenges unique to single molecule methods, naive application of available BNP tools is not possible. Here we consider traces with time correlations and, as a specific example, we deal with force spectroscopy traces collected at high acquisition rates. While high acquisition rates are required in order to capture dwells in short-lived molecular states, in this setup, a slow response of the optical trap instrumentation (i.e., trapped beads, ambient fluid, and tethering handles) distorts the molecular signals introducing time correlations into the data that may be misinterpreted as true states by naive BNPs. Our adaptation of BNP tools explicitly takes into consideration these response dynamics, in addition to drift and noise, and makes unsupervised time series analysis of correlated single molecule force spectroscopy measurements possible, even at acquisition rates similar to or below the trap's response times.

Introduction to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2017-01-01

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

A Bayesian Markov geostatistical model for estimation of hydrogeological properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen, L.; Gustafson, G.

1996-01-01

A geostatistical methodology based on Markov-chain analysis and Bayesian statistics was developed for probability estimations of hydrogeological and geological properties in the siting process of a nuclear waste repository. The probability estimates have practical use in decision-making on issues such as siting, investigation programs, and construction design. The methodology is nonparametric which makes it possible to handle information that does not exhibit standard statistical distributions, as is often the case for classified information. Data do not need to meet the requirements on additivity and normality as with the geostatistical methods based on regionalized variable theory, e.g., kriging. The methodology also has a formal way for incorporating professional judgments through the use of Bayesian statistics, which allows for updating of prior estimates to posterior probabilities each time new information becomes available. A Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model (BayMar) software was developed for implementation of the methodology in two and three dimensions. This paper gives (1) a theoretical description of the Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model; (2) a short description of the BayMar software; and (3) an example of application of the model for estimating the suitability for repository establishment with respect to the three parameters of lithology, hydraulic conductivity, and rock quality designation index (RQD) at 400--500 meters below ground surface in an area around the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southeastern Sweden

Deconstructing Cross-Entropy for Probabilistic Binary Classifiers

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Daniel Ramos

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this work, we analyze the cross-entropy function, widely used in classifiers both as a performance measure and as an optimization objective. We contextualize cross-entropy in the light of Bayesian decision theory, the formal probabilistic framework for making decisions, and we thoroughly analyze its motivation, meaning and interpretation from an information-theoretical point of view. In this sense, this article presents several contributions: First, we explicitly analyze the contribution to cross-entropy of (i prior knowledge; and (ii the value of the features in the form of a likelihood ratio. Second, we introduce a decomposition of cross-entropy into two components: discrimination and calibration. This decomposition enables the measurement of different performance aspects of a classifier in a more precise way; and justifies previously reported strategies to obtain reliable probabilities by means of the calibration of the output of a discriminating classifier. Third, we give different information-theoretical interpretations of cross-entropy, which can be useful in different application scenarios, and which are related to the concept of reference probabilities. Fourth, we present an analysis tool, the Empirical Cross-Entropy (ECE plot, a compact representation of cross-entropy and its aforementioned decomposition. We show the power of ECE plots, as compared to other classical performance representations, in two diverse experimental examples: a speaker verification system, and a forensic case where some glass findings are present.

The maximum entropy method of moments and Bayesian probability theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bretthorst, G. Larry

2013-08-01

The problem of density estimation occurs in many disciplines. For example, in MRI it is often necessary to classify the types of tissues in an image. To perform this classification one must first identify the characteristics of the tissues to be classified. These characteristics might be the intensity of a T1 weighted image and in MRI many other types of characteristic weightings (classifiers) may be generated. In a given tissue type there is no single intensity that characterizes the tissue, rather there is a distribution of intensities. Often this distributions can be characterized by a Gaussian, but just as often it is much more complicated. Either way, estimating the distribution of intensities is an inference problem. In the case of a Gaussian distribution, one must estimate the mean and standard deviation. However, in the Non-Gaussian case the shape of the density function itself must be inferred. Three common techniques for estimating density functions are binned histograms [1, 2], kernel density estimation [3, 4], and the maximum entropy method of moments [5, 6]. In the introduction, the maximum entropy method of moments will be reviewed. Some of its problems and conditions under which it fails will be discussed. Then in later sections, the functional form of the maximum entropy method of moments probability distribution will be incorporated into Bayesian probability theory. It will be shown that Bayesian probability theory solves all of the problems with the maximum entropy method of moments. One gets posterior probabilities for the Lagrange multipliers, and, finally, one can put error bars on the resulting estimated density function.

Classifier-Guided Sampling for Complex Energy System Optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backlund, Peter B. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eddy, John P. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-09-01

This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort enti tled "Classifier - Guided Sampling for Complex Energy System Optimization" that was conducted during FY 2014 and FY 2015. The goal of this proj ect was to develop, implement, and test major improvements to the classifier - guided sampling (CGS) algorithm. CGS is type of evolutionary algorithm for perform ing search and optimization over a set of discrete design variables in the face of one or more objective functions. E xisting evolutionary algorithms, such as genetic algorithms , may require a large number of o bjecti ve function evaluations to identify optimal or near - optimal solutions . Reducing the number of evaluations can result in significant time savings, especially if the objective function is computationally expensive. CGS reduce s the evaluation count by us ing a Bayesian network classifier to filter out non - promising candidate designs , prior to evaluation, based on their posterior probabilit ies . In this project, b oth the single - objective and multi - objective version s of the CGS are developed and tested on a set of benchm ark problems. As a domain - specific case study, CGS is used to design a microgrid for use in islanded mode during an extended bulk power grid outage.

Evaluation of Three State-of-the-Art Classifiers for Recognition of Activities of Daily Living from Smart Home Ambient Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobias Nef

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Smart homes for the aging population have recently started attracting the attention of the research community. The “health state” of smart homes is comprised of many different levels; starting with the physical health of citizens, it also includes longer-term health norms and outcomes, as well as the arena of positive behavior changes. One of the problems of interest is to monitor the activities of daily living (ADL of the elderly, aiming at their protection and well-being. For this purpose, we installed passive infrared (PIR sensors to detect motion in a specific area inside a smart apartment and used them to collect a set of ADL. In a novel approach, we describe a technology that allows the ground truth collected in one smart home to train activity recognition systems for other smart homes. We asked the users to label all instances of all ADL only once and subsequently applied data mining techniques to cluster in-home sensor firings. Each cluster would therefore represent the instances of the same activity. Once the clusters were associated to their corresponding activities, our system was able to recognize future activities. To improve the activity recognition accuracy, our system preprocessed raw sensor data by identifying overlapping activities. To evaluate the recognition performance from a 200-day dataset, we implemented three different active learning classification algorithms and compared their performance: naive Bayesian (NB, support vector machine (SVM and random forest (RF. Based on our results, the RF classifier recognized activities with an average specificity of 96.53%, a sensitivity of 68.49%, a precision of 74.41% and an F-measure of 71.33%, outperforming both the NB and SVM classifiers. Further clustering markedly improved the results of the RF classifier. An activity recognition system based on PIR sensors in conjunction with a clustering classification approach was able to detect ADL from datasets collected from different

Evaluation of Three State-of-the-Art Classifiers for Recognition of Activities of Daily Living from Smart Home Ambient Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Nef, Tobias; Urwyler, Prabitha; Büchler, Marcel; Tarnanas, Ioannis; Stucki, Reto; Cazzoli, Dario; Müri, René; Mosimann, Urs

2015-05-21

Smart homes for the aging population have recently started attracting the attention of the research community. The "health state" of smart homes is comprised of many different levels; starting with the physical health of citizens, it also includes longer-term health norms and outcomes, as well as the arena of positive behavior changes. One of the problems of interest is to monitor the activities of daily living (ADL) of the elderly, aiming at their protection and well-being. For this purpose, we installed passive infrared (PIR) sensors to detect motion in a specific area inside a smart apartment and used them to collect a set of ADL. In a novel approach, we describe a technology that allows the ground truth collected in one smart home to train activity recognition systems for other smart homes. We asked the users to label all instances of all ADL only once and subsequently applied data mining techniques to cluster in-home sensor firings. Each cluster would therefore represent the instances of the same activity. Once the clusters were associated to their corresponding activities, our system was able to recognize future activities. To improve the activity recognition accuracy, our system preprocessed raw sensor data by identifying overlapping activities. To evaluate the recognition performance from a 200-day dataset, we implemented three different active learning classification algorithms and compared their performance: naive Bayesian (NB), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). Based on our results, the RF classifier recognized activities with an average specificity of 96.53%, a sensitivity of 68.49%, a precision of 74.41% and an F-measure of 71.33%, outperforming both the NB and SVM classifiers. Further clustering markedly improved the results of the RF classifier. An activity recognition system based on PIR sensors in conjunction with a clustering classification approach was able to detect ADL from datasets collected from different homes. Thus, our

Development of naive personality perception

OpenAIRE

Hayashi, Tomoyuki

2004-01-01

Lay persons usually understand that the personality has consistency and causality. They also have the knowledge of what contents the personality consists of. Research of "theories of mind," which focuses on the developmental processes of the naive understanding of mind, suggests three stages : (a) alignment of actions (imitation) fosters the foundation of social cognition in young children (i.e., understanding that the mind causes behaviors, grasping the identity of a person, and discovering ...

Lane-Level Road Information Mining from Vehicle GPS Trajectories Based on Naïve Bayesian Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luliang Tang

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a novel approach for mining lane-level road network information from low-precision vehicle GPS trajectories (MLIT, which includes the number and turn rules of traffic lanes based on naïve Bayesian classification. First, the proposed method (MLIT uses an adaptive density optimization method to remove outliers from the raw GPS trajectories based on their space-time distribution and density clustering. Second, MLIT acquires the number of lanes in two steps. The first step establishes a naïve Bayesian classifier according to the trace features of the road plane and road profiles and the real number of lanes, as found in the training samples. The second step confirms the number of lanes using test samples in reference to the naïve Bayesian classifier using the known trace features of test sample. Third, MLIT infers the turn rules of each lane through tracking GPS trajectories. Experiments were conducted using the GPS trajectories of taxis in Wuhan, China. Compared with human-interpreted results, the automatically generated lane-level road network information was demonstrated to be of higher quality in terms of displaying detailed road networks with the number of lanes and turn rules of each lane.

Unified framework for triaxial accelerometer-based fall event detection and classification using cumulants and hierarchical decision tree classifier.

Science.gov (United States)

Kambhampati, Satya Samyukta; Singh, Vishal; Manikandan, M Sabarimalai; Ramkumar, Barathram

2015-08-01

In this Letter, the authors present a unified framework for fall event detection and classification using the cumulants extracted from the acceleration (ACC) signals acquired using a single waist-mounted triaxial accelerometer. The main objective of this Letter is to find suitable representative cumulants and classifiers in effectively detecting and classifying different types of fall and non-fall events. It was discovered that the first level of the proposed hierarchical decision tree algorithm implements fall detection using fifth-order cumulants and support vector machine (SVM) classifier. In the second level, the fall event classification algorithm uses the fifth-order cumulants and SVM. Finally, human activity classification is performed using the second-order cumulants and SVM. The detection and classification results are compared with those of the decision tree, naive Bayes, multilayer perceptron and SVM classifiers with different types of time-domain features including the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-order cumulants and the signal magnitude vector and signal magnitude area. The experimental results demonstrate that the second- and fifth-order cumulant features and SVM classifier can achieve optimal detection and classification rates of above 95%, as well as the lowest false alarm rate of 1.03%.

Children and Adolescents' Understandings of Family Resemblance: A Study of Naive Inheritance Concepts

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Joanne M.

2012-01-01

This paper aims to provide developmental data on two connected naive inheritance concepts and to explore the coherence of children's naive biology knowledge. Two tasks examined children and adolescents' (4, 7, 10, and 14 years) conceptions of phenotypic resemblance across kin (in physical characteristics, disabilities, and personality traits). The…

A Cross-Classified CFA-MTMM Model for Structurally Different and Nonindependent Interchangeable Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Tobias; Schultze, Martin; Jeon, Minjeong; Nussbeck, Fridtjof W; Praetorius, Anna-Katharina; Eid, Michael

2016-01-01

Multirater (multimethod, multisource) studies are increasingly applied in psychology. Eid and colleagues (2008) proposed a multilevel confirmatory factor model for multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data combining structurally different and multiple independent interchangeable methods (raters). In many studies, however, different interchangeable raters (e.g., peers, subordinates) are asked to rate different targets (students, supervisors), leading to violations of the independence assumption and to cross-classified data structures. In the present work, we extend the ML-CFA-MTMM model by Eid and colleagues (2008) to cross-classified multirater designs. The new C4 model (Cross-Classified CTC[M-1] Combination of Methods) accounts for nonindependent interchangeable raters and enables researchers to explicitly model the interaction between targets and raters as a latent variable. Using a real data application, it is shown how credibility intervals of model parameters and different variance components can be obtained using Bayesian estimation techniques.

An Improved Fast Compressive Tracking Algorithm Based on Online Random Forest Classifier

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiong Jintao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The fast compressive tracking (FCT algorithm is a simple and efficient algorithm, which is proposed in recent years. But, it is difficult to deal with the factors such as occlusion, appearance changes, pose variation, etc in processing. The reasons are that, Firstly, even if the naive Bayes classifier is fast in training, it is not robust concerning the noise. Secondly, the parameters are required to vary with the unique environment for accurate tracking. In this paper, we propose an improved fast compressive tracking algorithm based on online random forest (FCT-ORF for robust visual tracking. Firstly, we combine ideas with the adaptive compressive sensing theory regarding the weighted random projection to exploit both local and discriminative information of the object. The second reason is the online random forest classifier for online tracking which is demonstrated with more robust to the noise adaptively and high computational efficiency. The experimental results show that the algorithm we have proposed has a better performance in the field of occlusion, appearance changes, and pose variation than the fast compressive tracking algorithm’s contribution.

Hepatic insulin resistance in antipsychotic naive schizophrenic patients: stable isotope studies of glucose metabolism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Nimwegen, Lonneke J. M.; Storosum, Jitschak G.; Blumer, Regje M. E.; Allick, Gideon; Venema, Henk W.; de Haan, Lieuwe; Becker, Hiske; van Amelsvoort, Therese; Ackermans, Mariette T.; Fliers, Eric; Serlie, Mireille J. M.; Sauerwein, Hans P.

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to measure insulin sensitivity and body composition in antipsychotic-naive patients with DSM IV schizophrenia and/or schizoaffective disorder compared with matched controls. DESIGN: Seven antipsychotic medication-naive patients fulfilling the DSM IV A criteria for

Automated high resolution mapping of coffee in Rwanda using an expert Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Mukashema, A.; Veldkamp, A.; Vrieling, A.

2014-12-01

African highland agro-ecosystems are dominated by small-scale agricultural fields that often contain a mix of annual and perennial crops. This makes such systems difficult to map by remote sensing. We developed an expert Bayesian network model to extract the small-scale coffee fields of Rwanda from very high resolution data. The model was subsequently applied to aerial orthophotos covering more than 99% of Rwanda and on one QuickBird image for the remaining part. The method consists of a stepwise adjustment of pixel probabilities, which incorporates expert knowledge on size of coffee trees and fields, and on their location. The initial naive Bayesian network, which is a spectral-based classification, yielded a coffee map with an overall accuracy of around 50%. This confirms that standard spectral variables alone cannot accurately identify coffee fields from high resolution images. The combination of spectral and ancillary data (DEM and a forest map) allowed mapping of coffee fields and associated uncertainties with an overall accuracy of 87%. Aggregated to district units, the mapped coffee areas demonstrated a high correlation with the coffee areas reported in the detailed national coffee census of 2009 (R2 = 0.92). Unlike the census data our map provides high spatial resolution of coffee area patterns of Rwanda. The proposed method has potential for mapping other perennial small scale cropping systems in the East African Highlands and elsewhere.

Comparative Analysis of Automatic Exudate Detection between Machine Learning and Traditional Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Sopharak, Akara; Uyyanonvara, Bunyarit; Barman, Sarah; Williamson, Thomas

To prevent blindness from diabetic retinopathy, periodic screening and early diagnosis are neccessary. Due to lack of expert ophthalmologists in rural area, automated early exudate (one of visible sign of diabetic retinopathy) detection could help to reduce the number of blindness in diabetic patients. Traditional automatic exudate detection methods are based on specific parameter configuration, while the machine learning approaches which seems more flexible may be computationally high cost. A comparative analysis of traditional and machine learning of exudates detection, namely, mathematical morphology, fuzzy c-means clustering, naive Bayesian classifier, Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbor classifier are presented. Detected exudates are validated with expert ophthalmologists' hand-drawn ground-truths. The sensitivity, specificity, precision, accuracy and time complexity of each method are also compared.

Bayesian biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2012-01-01

The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

An adaptive optimal ensemble classifier via bagging and rank aggregation with applications to high dimensional data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Datta Susmita

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Generally speaking, different classifiers tend to work well for certain types of data and conversely, it is usually not known a priori which algorithm will be optimal in any given classification application. In addition, for most classification problems, selecting the best performing classification algorithm amongst a number of competing algorithms is a difficult task for various reasons. As for example, the order of performance may depend on the performance measure employed for such a comparison. In this work, we present a novel adaptive ensemble classifier constructed by combining bagging and rank aggregation that is capable of adaptively changing its performance depending on the type of data that is being classified. The attractive feature of the proposed classifier is its multi-objective nature where the classification results can be simultaneously optimized with respect to several performance measures, for example, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. We also show that our somewhat complex strategy has better predictive performance as judged on test samples than a more naive approach that attempts to directly identify the optimal classifier based on the training data performances of the individual classifiers. Results We illustrate the proposed method with two simulated and two real-data examples. In all cases, the ensemble classifier performs at the level of the best individual classifier comprising the ensemble or better. Conclusions For complex high-dimensional datasets resulting from present day high-throughput experiments, it may be wise to consider a number of classification algorithms combined with dimension reduction techniques rather than a fixed standard algorithm set a priori.

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Risk of erectile dysfunction in transfusion-naive thalassemia men: a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Guang; Lin, Te-Yu; Lin, Cheng-Li; Dai, Ming-Shen; Ho, Ching-Liang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-04-01

Based on the mechanism of pathophysiology, thalassemia major or transfusion-dependent thalassemia patients may have an increased risk of developing organic erectile dysfunction resulting from hypogonadism. However, there have been few studies investigating the association between erectile dysfunction and transfusion-naive thalassemia populations. We constructed a population-based cohort study to elucidate the association between transfusion-naive thalassemia populations and organic erectile dysfunction. This nationwide population-based cohort study involved analyzing data from 1998 to 2010 obtained from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database, with a follow-up period extending to the end of 2011. We identified men with transfusion-naive thalassemia and selected a comparison cohort that was frequency-matched with these according to age, and year of diagnosis thalassemia at a ratio of 1 thalassemia man to 4 control men. We analyzed the risks for transfusion-naive thalassemia men and organic erectile dysfunction by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In this study, 588 transfusion-naive thalassemia men and 2337 controls were included. Total 12 patients were identified within the thalassaemia group and 10 within the control group. The overall risks for developing organic erectile dysfunction were 4.56-fold in patients with transfusion-naive thalassemia men compared with the comparison cohort after we adjusted for age and comorbidities. Our long-term cohort study results showed that in transfusion-naive thalassemia men, there was a higher risk for the development of organic erectile dysfunction, particularly in those patients with comorbidities.

How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

2013-01-01

Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

Two subgroups of antipsychotic-naive, first-episode schizophrenia patients identified with a Gaussian mixture model on cognition and electrophysiology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bak, N.; Ebdrup, B.H.; Oranje, B

2017-01-01

Deficits in information processing and cognition are among the most robust findings in schizophrenia patients. Previous efforts to translate group-level deficits into clinically relevant and individualized information have, however, been non-successful, which is possibly explained by biologically...... different disease subgroups. We applied machine learning algorithms on measures of electrophysiology and cognition to identify potential subgroups of schizophrenia. Next, we explored subgroup differences regarding treatment response. Sixty-six antipsychotic-naive first-episode schizophrenia patients...... be used to classify subgroups of schizophrenia patients. The two distinct subgroups, which we identified, were psychopathologically inseparable before treatment, yet their response to dopaminergic blockade was predicted with significant accuracy. This proof of principle encourages further endeavors...

Evaluation of the impact of chitosan/DNA nanoparticles on the differentiation of human naive CD4+ T cells

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Lanxia; Bai, Yuanyuan; Zhu, Dunwan; Song, Liping; Wang, Hai; Dong, Xia; Zhang, Hailing; Leng, Xigang

2011-06-01

Chitosan (CS) is one of the most widely studied polymers in non-viral gene delivery since it is a cationic polysaccharide that forms nanoparticles with DNA and hence protects the DNA against digestion by DNase. However, the impact of CS/DNA nanoparticle on the immune system still remains poorly understood. Previous investigations did not found CS/DNA nanoparticles had any significant impact on the function of human and murine macrophages. To date, little is known about the interaction between CS/DNA nanoparticles and naive CD4+ T cells. This study was designed to investigate whether CS/DNA nanoparticles affect the initial differentiation direction of human naive CD4+ T cells. The indirect impact of CS/DNA nanoparticles on naive CD4+ T cell differentiation was investigated by incubating the nanoparticles with human macrophage THP-1 cells in one chamber of a transwell co-incubation system, with the enriched human naive CD4+ T cells being placed in the other chamber of the transwell. The nanoparticles were also co-incubated with the naive CD4+ T cells to explore their direct impact on naive CD4+ T cell differentiation by measuring the release of IL-4 and IFN-γ from the cells. It was demonstrated that CS/DNA nanoparticles induced slightly elevated production of IL-12 by THP-1 cells, possibly owing to the presence of CpG motifs in the plasmid. However, this macrophage stimulating activity was much less significant as compared with lipopolysaccharide and did not impact on the differentiation of the naive CD4+ T cells. It was also demonstrated that, when directly exposed to the naive CD4+ T cells, the nanoparticles induced neither the activation of the naive CD4+ T cells in the absence of recombinant cytokines (recombinant human IL-4 or IFN-γ) that induce naive CD4+ T cell polarization, nor any changes in the differentiation direction of naive CD4+ T cells in the presence of the corresponding cytokines.

Evaluation of the impact of chitosan/DNA nanoparticles on the differentiation of human naive CD4+ T cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Lanxia; Bai Yuanyuan; Zhu Dunwan; Song Liping; Wang Hai; Dong Xia; Zhang Hailing; Leng Xigang

2011-01-01

Chitosan (CS) is one of the most widely studied polymers in non-viral gene delivery since it is a cationic polysaccharide that forms nanoparticles with DNA and hence protects the DNA against digestion by DNase. However, the impact of CS/DNA nanoparticle on the immune system still remains poorly understood. Previous investigations did not found CS/DNA nanoparticles had any significant impact on the function of human and murine macrophages. To date, little is known about the interaction between CS/DNA nanoparticles and naive CD4 + T cells. This study was designed to investigate whether CS/DNA nanoparticles affect the initial differentiation direction of human naive CD4 + T cells. The indirect impact of CS/DNA nanoparticles on naive CD4 + T cell differentiation was investigated by incubating the nanoparticles with human macrophage THP-1 cells in one chamber of a transwell co-incubation system, with the enriched human naive CD4 + T cells being placed in the other chamber of the transwell. The nanoparticles were also co-incubated with the naive CD4 + T cells to explore their direct impact on naive CD4 + T cell differentiation by measuring the release of IL-4 and IFN-γ from the cells. It was demonstrated that CS/DNA nanoparticles induced slightly elevated production of IL-12 by THP-1 cells, possibly owing to the presence of CpG motifs in the plasmid. However, this macrophage stimulating activity was much less significant as compared with lipopolysaccharide and did not impact on the differentiation of the naive CD4 + T cells. It was also demonstrated that, when directly exposed to the naive CD4 + T cells, the nanoparticles induced neither the activation of the naive CD4 + T cells in the absence of recombinant cytokines (recombinant human IL-4 or IFN-γ) that induce naive CD4 + T cell polarization, nor any changes in the differentiation direction of naive CD4 + T cells in the presence of the corresponding cytokines.

Predicting membrane protein types using various decision tree classifiers based on various modes of general PseAAC for imbalanced datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Sankari, E Siva; Manimegalai, D

2017-12-21

Predicting membrane protein types is an important and challenging research area in bioinformatics and proteomics. Traditional biophysical methods are used to classify membrane protein types. Due to large exploration of uncharacterized protein sequences in databases, traditional methods are very time consuming, expensive and susceptible to errors. Hence, it is highly desirable to develop a robust, reliable, and efficient method to predict membrane protein types. Imbalanced datasets and large datasets are often handled well by decision tree classifiers. Since imbalanced datasets are taken, the performance of various decision tree classifiers such as Decision Tree (DT), Classification And Regression Tree (CART), C4.5, Random tree, REP (Reduced Error Pruning) tree, ensemble methods such as Adaboost, RUS (Random Under Sampling) boost, Rotation forest and Random forest are analysed. Among the various decision tree classifiers Random forest performs well in less time with good accuracy of 96.35%. Another inference is RUS boost decision tree classifier is able to classify one or two samples in the class with very less samples while the other classifiers such as DT, Adaboost, Rotation forest and Random forest are not sensitive for the classes with fewer samples. Also the performance of decision tree classifiers is compared with SVM (Support Vector Machine) and Naive Bayes classifier. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insulin degludec versus insulin glargine in insulin-naive patients with type 2 diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zinman, Bernard; Philis-Tsimikas, Athena; Cariou, Bertrand

2012-01-01

To compare ultra-long-acting insulin degludec with glargine for efficacy and safety in insulin-naive patients with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs).......To compare ultra-long-acting insulin degludec with glargine for efficacy and safety in insulin-naive patients with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs)....

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Naive Fault Tree : formulation of the approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rajabalinejad, M

2017-01-01

Naive Fault Tree (NFT) accepts a single value or a range of values for each basic event and returns values for the top event. This accommodates the need of commonly used Fault Trees (FT) for precise data making them prone to data concerns and limiting their area of application. This paper extends

Combining MLC and SVM Classifiers for Learning Based Decision Making: Analysis and Evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yi; Ren, Jinchang; Jiang, Jianmin

2015-01-01

Maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) and support vector machines (SVM) are two commonly used approaches in machine learning. MLC is based on Bayesian theory in estimating parameters of a probabilistic model, whilst SVM is an optimization based nonparametric method in this context. Recently, it is found that SVM in some cases is equivalent to MLC in probabilistically modeling the learning process. In this paper, MLC and SVM are combined in learning and classification, which helps to yield probabilistic output for SVM and facilitate soft decision making. In total four groups of data are used for evaluations, covering sonar, vehicle, breast cancer, and DNA sequences. The data samples are characterized in terms of Gaussian/non-Gaussian distributed and balanced/unbalanced samples which are then further used for performance assessment in comparing the SVM and the combined SVM-MLC classifier. Interesting results are reported to indicate how the combined classifier may work under various conditions.

Combining MLC and SVM Classifiers for Learning Based Decision Making: Analysis and Evaluations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Maximum likelihood classifier (MLC and support vector machines (SVM are two commonly used approaches in machine learning. MLC is based on Bayesian theory in estimating parameters of a probabilistic model, whilst SVM is an optimization based nonparametric method in this context. Recently, it is found that SVM in some cases is equivalent to MLC in probabilistically modeling the learning process. In this paper, MLC and SVM are combined in learning and classification, which helps to yield probabilistic output for SVM and facilitate soft decision making. In total four groups of data are used for evaluations, covering sonar, vehicle, breast cancer, and DNA sequences. The data samples are characterized in terms of Gaussian/non-Gaussian distributed and balanced/unbalanced samples which are then further used for performance assessment in comparing the SVM and the combined SVM-MLC classifier. Interesting results are reported to indicate how the combined classifier may work under various conditions.

Bayesian screening for active compounds in high-dimensional chemical spaces combining property descriptors and molecular fingerprints.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, Martin; Bajorath, Jürgen

2008-01-01

Bayesian classifiers are increasingly being used to distinguish active from inactive compounds and search large databases for novel active molecules. We introduce an approach to directly combine the contributions of property descriptors and molecular fingerprints in the search for active compounds that is based on a Bayesian framework. Conventionally, property descriptors and fingerprints are used as alternative features for virtual screening methods. Following the approach introduced here, probability distributions of descriptor values and fingerprint bit settings are calculated for active and database molecules and the divergence between the resulting combined distributions is determined as a measure of biological activity. In test calculations on a large number of compound activity classes, this methodology was found to consistently perform better than similarity searching using fingerprints and multiple reference compounds or Bayesian screening calculations using probability distributions calculated only from property descriptors. These findings demonstrate that there is considerable synergy between different types of property descriptors and fingerprints in recognizing diverse structure-activity relationships, at least in the context of Bayesian modeling.

Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chernoded Andrey

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

Bayesian methods for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Carlin, Bradley P.

2009-01-01

Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

Mercury⊕: An evidential reasoning image classifier

Science.gov (United States)

Peddle, Derek R.

1995-12-01

MERCURY⊕ is a multisource evidential reasoning classification software system based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. The design and implementation of this software package is described for improving the classification and analysis of multisource digital image data necessary for addressing advanced environmental and geoscience applications. In the remote-sensing context, the approach provides a more appropriate framework for classifying modern, multisource, and ancillary data sets which may contain a large number of disparate variables with different statistical properties, scales of measurement, and levels of error which cannot be handled using conventional Bayesian approaches. The software uses a nonparametric, supervised approach to classification, and provides a more objective and flexible interface to the evidential reasoning framework using a frequency-based method for computing support values from training data. The MERCURY⊕ software package has been implemented efficiently in the C programming language, with extensive use made of dynamic memory allocation procedures and compound linked list and hash-table data structures to optimize the storage and retrieval of evidence in a Knowledge Look-up Table. The software is complete with a full user interface and runs under Unix, Ultrix, VAX/VMS, MS-DOS, and Apple Macintosh operating system. An example of classifying alpine land cover and permafrost active layer depth in northern Canada is presented to illustrate the use and application of these ideas.

The Hayflick Limit May Determine the Effective Clonal Diversity of Naive T Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Ndifon, Wilfred; Dushoff, Jonathan

2016-06-15

Having a large number of sufficiently abundant T cell clones is important for adequate protection against diseases. However, as shown in this paper and elsewhere, between young adulthood and >70 y of age the effective clonal diversity of naive CD4/CD8 T cells found in human blood declines by a factor of >10. (Effective clonal diversity accounts for both the number and the abundance of T cell clones.) The causes of this observation are incompletely understood. A previous study proposed that it might result from the emergence of certain rare, replication-enhancing mutations in T cells. In this paper, we propose an even simpler explanation: that it results from the loss of T cells that have attained replicative senescence (i.e., the Hayflick limit). Stochastic numerical simulations of naive T cell population dynamics, based on experimental parameters, show that the rate of homeostatic T cell proliferation increases after the age of ∼60 y because naive T cells collectively approach replicative senescence. This leads to a sharp decline of effective clonal diversity after ∼70 y, in agreement with empirical data. A mathematical analysis predicts that, without an increase in the naive T cell proliferation rate, this decline will occur >50 yr later than empirically observed. These results are consistent with a model in which exhaustion of the proliferative capacity of naive T cells causes a sharp decline of their effective clonal diversity and imply that therapeutic potentiation of thymopoiesis might either prevent or reverse this outcome. Copyright © 2016 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

Bayesian conformational analysis of ring molecules through reversible jump MCMC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nolsøe, Kim; Kessler, Mathieu; Pérez, José

2005-01-01

In this paper we address the problem of classifying the conformations of mmembered rings using experimental observations obtained by crystal structure analysis. We formulate a model for the data generation mechanism that consists in a multidimensional mixture model. We perform inference for the p...... for the proportions and the components in a Bayesian framework, implementing an MCMC Reversible Jumps Algorithm to obtain samples of the posterior distributions. The method is illustrated on a simulated data set and on real data corresponding to cyclo-octane structures....

Evaluation of the impact of chitosan/DNA nanoparticles on the differentiation of human naive CD4{sup +} T cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu Lanxia; Bai Yuanyuan; Zhu Dunwan; Song Liping; Wang Hai; Dong Xia; Zhang Hailing; Leng Xigang, E-mail: lengxg@bme.org.cn [Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, Lab of Bioengineering, Institute of Biomedical Engineering (China)

2011-06-15

Chitosan (CS) is one of the most widely studied polymers in non-viral gene delivery since it is a cationic polysaccharide that forms nanoparticles with DNA and hence protects the DNA against digestion by DNase. However, the impact of CS/DNA nanoparticle on the immune system still remains poorly understood. Previous investigations did not found CS/DNA nanoparticles had any significant impact on the function of human and murine macrophages. To date, little is known about the interaction between CS/DNA nanoparticles and naive CD4{sup +} T cells. This study was designed to investigate whether CS/DNA nanoparticles affect the initial differentiation direction of human naive CD4{sup +} T cells. The indirect impact of CS/DNA nanoparticles on naive CD4{sup +} T cell differentiation was investigated by incubating the nanoparticles with human macrophage THP-1 cells in one chamber of a transwell co-incubation system, with the enriched human naive CD4{sup +} T cells being placed in the other chamber of the transwell. The nanoparticles were also co-incubated with the naive CD4{sup +} T cells to explore their direct impact on naive CD4{sup +} T cell differentiation by measuring the release of IL-4 and IFN-{gamma} from the cells. It was demonstrated that CS/DNA nanoparticles induced slightly elevated production of IL-12 by THP-1 cells, possibly owing to the presence of CpG motifs in the plasmid. However, this macrophage stimulating activity was much less significant as compared with lipopolysaccharide and did not impact on the differentiation of the naive CD4{sup +} T cells. It was also demonstrated that, when directly exposed to the naive CD4{sup +} T cells, the nanoparticles induced neither the activation of the naive CD4{sup +} T cells in the absence of recombinant cytokines (recombinant human IL-4 or IFN-{gamma}) that induce naive CD4{sup +} T cell polarization, nor any changes in the differentiation direction of naive CD4{sup +} T cells in the presence of the corresponding

Bayesian benefits with JASP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

CERN Document Server

Ntzoufras, Ioannis

2009-01-01

A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

Incorporating pion effects into the naive quark model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nogami, Y.; Ohtuska, N.

1982-01-01

A hybrid of the naive nonrelativistic quark model and the Chew-Low model is proposed. The pion is treated as an elementary particle which interacts with the ''bare baryon'' or ''baryon core'' via the Chew-Low interaction. The baryon core, which is the source of the pion interaction, is described by the naive nonrelativistic quark model. It turns out that the baryon-core radius has to be as large as 0.8 fm, and consequently the cutoff momentum Λ for the pion interaction is < or approx. =3m/sub π/, m/sub π/ being the pion mass. Because of this small Λ (as compared with Λapprox. nucleon mass in the old Chew-Low model) the effects of the pion cloud are strongly suppressed. The baryon masses, baryon magnetic moments, and the nucleon charge radii can be reproduced quite well. However, we found it singularly difficult to fit the axial-vector weak decay constant g/sub A/

A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carriger, John F. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, FL, 32561 (United States); Martin, Todd M. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Sustainable Technology Division, Cincinnati, OH, 45220 (United States); Barron, Mace G., E-mail: barron.mace@epa.gov [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, FL, 32561 (United States)

2016-11-15

Highlights: • A Bayesian network was developed to classify chemical mode of action (MoA). • The network was based on the aquatic toxicity MoA for over 1000 chemicals. • A Markov blanket algorithm selected a subset of theoretical molecular descriptors. • Sensitivity analyses found influential descriptors for classifying the MoAs. • Overall precision of the Bayesian MoA classification model was 80%. - Abstract: The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the dataset of 1098 chemicals with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2%. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blanket of a structurally complex dataset can simplify analysis and interpretation by

Classification of Active Microwave and Passive Optical Data Based on Bayesian Theory and Mrf

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, F.; Li, H. T.; Han, Y. S.; Gu, H. Y.

2012-08-01

A classifier based on Bayesian theory and Markov random field (MRF) is presented to classify the active microwave and passive optical remote sensing data, which have demonstrated their respective advantages in inversion of surface soil moisture content. In the method, the VV, VH polarization of ASAR and all the 7 TM bands are taken as the input of the classifier to get the class labels of each pixel of the images. And the model is validated for the necessities of integration of TM and ASAR, it shows that, the total precision of classification in this paper is 89.4%. Comparing with the classification with single TM, the accuracy increase 11.5%, illustrating that synthesis of active and passive optical remote sensing data is efficient and potential in classification.

CLASSIFICATION OF ACTIVE MICROWAVE AND PASSIVE OPTICAL DATA BASED ON BAYESIAN THEORY AND MRF

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Yu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available A classifier based on Bayesian theory and Markov random field (MRF is presented to classify the active microwave and passive optical remote sensing data, which have demonstrated their respective advantages in inversion of surface soil moisture content. In the method, the VV, VH polarization of ASAR and all the 7 TM bands are taken as the input of the classifier to get the class labels of each pixel of the images. And the model is validated for the necessities of integration of TM and ASAR, it shows that, the total precision of classification in this paper is 89.4%. Comparing with the classification with single TM, the accuracy increase 11.5%, illustrating that synthesis of active and passive optical remote sensing data is efficient and potential in classification.

Bayesian optimization for materials science

CERN Document Server

Packwood, Daniel

2017-01-01

This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

Implementasi Web Service Dan Analisis Kinerja Algoritma Klasifikasi Data Mining Untuk Memprediksi Diabetes Mellitus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doni Setyawan

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Salah satu penyakit yang ditimbulkan akibat kesalahan pola gaya hidup adalah Diabetes Mellitus (DM. Gejala penyakit diabetes sering dilalaikan oleh kebanyakan orang, sehingga mereka cenderung untuk mengabaikannya dan tidak mau melakukan medical check up. Di Indonesia jumlah penderita DM terus mengalami peningkatan dari tahun ke tahun. World Health Organization (WHO memperkirakan jumlah penderita DM tipe 2 di Indonesia akan mengalami peningkatan secara signifikan hingga 21,3 juta jiwa pada tahun 2030 mendatang. Ternyata dengan bantuan ilmu data mining, data pasien diabetes dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi apakah sesorang positif diabetes atau tidak. Tahapan awal dilakukan preprocessing data untuk menangani missing dan non numeric values. Kemudian traning dan testing menggunakan k-fold cross validation dengan algoritma K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN, random forest dan naive bayesian. Pengujian dilakukan dengan menghitung accuracy, sensitivity dan specificity. Dari hasil uji 10-fold cross validation diperoleh rata-rata akurasi tertinggi ketika menggunakan naive bayesian yaitu 75,65%, sedangkan KNN 75,53% dan random forest 73,69%. Perhitungan sensitivity dan specificity dengan membagi 786 data menjadi 594 data training dan 192 data testing. Untuk KNN diperoleh sensitivity 56,72% dan specificity 78,68%, random forest diperoleh sensitivity 53,73% dan specificity 86,4%, sedangkan naive bayesian diperoleh sensitivity 62,69% dan specificity 84%. Implementasi restful web service diterapkan pada model dengan akurasi tertinggi yaitu naive bayesian dengan format json sebagai return value.

Selection of discriminant mid-infrared wavenumbers by combining a naïve Bayesian classifier and a genetic algorithm: Application to the evaluation of lignocellulosic biomass biodegradation.

Science.gov (United States)

Rammal, Abbas; Perrin, Eric; Vrabie, Valeriu; Assaf, Rabih; Fenniri, Hassan

2017-07-01

Infrared spectroscopy provides useful information on the molecular compositions of biological systems related to molecular vibrations, overtones, and combinations of fundamental vibrations. Mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy is sensitive to organic and mineral components and has attracted growing interest in the development of biomarkers related to intrinsic characteristics of lignocellulose biomass. However, not all spectral information is valuable for biomarker construction or for applying analysis methods such as classification. Better processing and interpretation can be achieved by identifying discriminating wavenumbers. The selection of wavenumbers has been addressed through several variable- or feature-selection methods. Some of them have not been adapted for use in large data sets or are difficult to tune, and others require additional information, such as concentrations. This paper proposes a new approach by combining a naïve Bayesian classifier with a genetic algorithm to identify discriminating spectral wavenumbers. The genetic algorithm uses a linear combination of an a posteriori probability and the Bayes error rate as the fitness function for optimization. Such a function allows the improvement of both the compactness and the separation of classes. This approach was tested to classify a small set of maize roots in soil according to their biodegradation process based on their MIR spectra. The results show that this optimization method allows better discrimination of the biodegradation process, compared with using the information of the entire MIR spectrum, the use of the spectral information at wavenumbers selected by a genetic algorithm based on a classical validity index or the use of the spectral information selected by combining a genetic algorithm with other methods, such as Linear Discriminant Analysis. The proposed method selects wavenumbers that correspond to principal vibrations of chemical functional groups of compounds that undergo degradation

Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2011-01-01

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

Bayesian statistics an introduction

CERN Document Server

Lee, Peter M

2012-01-01

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

Tabular data base construction and analysis from thematic classified Landsat imagery of Portland, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Bryant, N. A.; George, A. J., Jr.; Hegdahl, R.

1977-01-01

A systematic verification of Landsat data classifications of the Portland, Oregon metropolitan area has been undertaken on the basis of census tract data. The degree of systematic misclassification due to the Bayesian classifier used to process the Landsat data was noted for the various suburban, industrialized and central business districts of the metropolitan area. The Landsat determinations of residential land use were employed to estimate the number of automobile trips generated in the region and to model air pollution hazards.

Bayesian networks with examples in R

CERN Document Server

Scutari, Marco

2014-01-01

Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

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Ying Yan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia

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Manga, Edna; Awang, Norhashidah

2016-06-01

This article presents an application of a Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process (GP) model on particulate matter concentrations from Peninsular Malaysia. We analyze daily PM10 concentration levels from 35 monitoring sites in June and July 2011. The spatiotemporal model set in a Bayesian hierarchical framework allows for inclusion of informative covariates, meteorological variables and spatiotemporal interactions. Posterior density estimates of the model parameters are obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Preliminary data analysis indicate information on PM10 levels at sites classified as industrial locations could explain part of the space time variations. We include the site-type indicator in our modeling efforts. Results of the parameter estimates for the fitted GP model show significant spatio-temporal structure and positive effect of the location-type explanatory variable. We also compute some validation criteria for the out of sample sites that show the adequacy of the model for predicting PM10 at unmonitored sites.

REMOTE SENSING IMAGE CLASSIFICATION APPLIED TO THE FIRST NATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION CENSUS OF CHINA

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X. Yu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Image classification will still be a long way in the future, although it has gone almost half a century. In fact, researchers have gained many fruits in the image classification domain, but there is still a long distance between theory and practice. However, some new methods in the artificial intelligence domain will be absorbed into the image classification domain and draw on the strength of each to offset the weakness of the other, which will open up a new prospect. Usually, networks play the role of a high-level language, as is seen in Artificial Intelligence and statistics, because networks are used to build complex model from simple components. These years, Bayesian Networks, one of probabilistic networks, are a powerful data mining technique for handling uncertainty in complex domains. In this paper, we apply Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian Networks (TAN to texture classification of High-resolution remote sensing images and put up a new method to construct the network topology structure in terms of training accuracy based on the training samples. Since 2013, China government has started the first national geographical information census project, which mainly interprets geographical information based on high-resolution remote sensing images. Therefore, this paper tries to apply Bayesian network to remote sensing image classification, in order to improve image interpretation in the first national geographical information census project. In the experiment, we choose some remote sensing images in Beijing. Experimental results demonstrate TAN outperform than Naive Bayesian Classifier (NBC and Maximum Likelihood Classification Method (MLC in the overall classification accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can reduce the workload of field workers and improve the work efficiency. Although it is time consuming, it will be an attractive and effective method for assisting office operation of image interpretation.

Robust through-the-wall radar image classification using a target-model alignment procedure.

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Smith, Graeme E; Mobasseri, Bijan G

2012-02-01

A through-the-wall radar image (TWRI) bears little resemblance to the equivalent optical image, making it difficult to interpret. To maximize the intelligence that may be obtained, it is desirable to automate the classification of targets in the image to support human operators. This paper presents a technique for classifying stationary targets based on the high-range resolution profile (HRRP) extracted from 3-D TWRIs. The dependence of the image on the target location is discussed using a system point spread function (PSF) approach. It is shown that the position dependence will cause a classifier to fail, unless the image to be classified is aligned to a classifier-training location. A target image alignment technique based on deconvolution of the image with the system PSF is proposed. Comparison of the aligned target images with measured images shows the alignment process introducing normalized mean squared error (NMSE) ≤ 9%. The HRRP extracted from aligned target images are classified using a naive Bayesian classifier supported by principal component analysis. The classifier is tested using a real TWRI of canonical targets behind a concrete wall and shown to obtain correct classification rates ≥ 97%. © 2011 IEEE

Children's Conceptions of Mental Illness: A Naive Theory Approach

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Fox, Claudine; Buchanan-Barrow, Eithne; Barrett, Martyn

2010-01-01

This paper reports two studies that investigated children's conceptions of mental illness using a naive theory approach, drawing upon a conceptual framework for analysing illness representations which distinguishes between the identity, causes, consequences, curability, and timeline of an illness. The studies utilized semi-structured interviewing…

Machine learning approach to automatic exudate detection in retinal images from diabetic patients

Science.gov (United States)

Sopharak, Akara; Dailey, Matthew N.; Uyyanonvara, Bunyarit; Barman, Sarah; Williamson, Tom; Thet Nwe, Khine; Aye Moe, Yin

2010-01-01

Exudates are among the preliminary signs of diabetic retinopathy, a major cause of vision loss in diabetic patients. Early detection of exudates could improve patients' chances to avoid blindness. In this paper, we present a series of experiments on feature selection and exudates classification using naive Bayes and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers. We first fit the naive Bayes model to a training set consisting of 15 features extracted from each of 115,867 positive examples of exudate pixels and an equal number of negative examples. We then perform feature selection on the naive Bayes model, repeatedly removing features from the classifier, one by one, until classification performance stops improving. To find the best SVM, we begin with the best feature set from the naive Bayes classifier, and repeatedly add the previously-removed features to the classifier. For each combination of features, we perform a grid search to determine the best combination of hyperparameters ν (tolerance for training errors) and γ (radial basis function width). We compare the best naive Bayes and SVM classifiers to a baseline nearest neighbour (NN) classifier using the best feature sets from both classifiers. We find that the naive Bayes and SVM classifiers perform better than the NN classifier. The overall best sensitivity, specificity, precision, and accuracy are 92.28%, 98.52%, 53.05%, and 98.41%, respectively.

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

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Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

Predicting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Clades Using Knowledge-Based Bayesian Networks

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Minoo Aminian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We develop a novel approach for incorporating expert rules into Bayesian networks for classification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC clades. The proposed knowledge-based Bayesian network (KBBN treats sets of expert rules as prior distributions on the classes. Unlike prior knowledge-based support vector machine approaches which require rules expressed as polyhedral sets, KBBN directly incorporates the rules without any modification. KBBN uses data to refine rule-based classifiers when the rule set is incomplete or ambiguous. We develop a predictive KBBN model for 69 MTBC clades found in the SITVIT international collection. We validate the approach using two testbeds that model knowledge of the MTBC obtained from two different experts and large DNA fingerprint databases to predict MTBC genetic clades and sublineages. These models represent strains of MTBC using high-throughput biomarkers called spacer oligonucleotide types (spoligotypes, since these are routinely gathered from MTBC isolates of tuberculosis (TB patients. Results show that incorporating rules into problems can drastically increase classification accuracy if data alone are insufficient. The SITVIT KBBN is publicly available for use on the World Wide Web.

Predicting Classifier Performance with Limited Training Data: Applications to Computer-Aided Diagnosis in Breast and Prostate Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Basavanhally, Ajay; Viswanath, Satish; Madabhushi, Anant

2015-01-01

Clinical trials increasingly employ medical imaging data in conjunction with supervised classifiers, where the latter require large amounts of training data to accurately model the system. Yet, a classifier selected at the start of the trial based on smaller and more accessible datasets may yield inaccurate and unstable classification performance. In this paper, we aim to address two common concerns in classifier selection for clinical trials: (1) predicting expected classifier performance for large datasets based on error rates calculated from smaller datasets and (2) the selection of appropriate classifiers based on expected performance for larger datasets. We present a framework for comparative evaluation of classifiers using only limited amounts of training data by using random repeated sampling (RRS) in conjunction with a cross-validation sampling strategy. Extrapolated error rates are subsequently validated via comparison with leave-one-out cross-validation performed on a larger dataset. The ability to predict error rates as dataset size increases is demonstrated on both synthetic data as well as three different computational imaging tasks: detecting cancerous image regions in prostate histopathology, differentiating high and low grade cancer in breast histopathology, and detecting cancerous metavoxels in prostate magnetic resonance spectroscopy. For each task, the relationships between 3 distinct classifiers (k-nearest neighbor, naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine) are explored. Further quantitative evaluation in terms of interquartile range (IQR) suggests that our approach consistently yields error rates with lower variability (mean IQRs of 0.0070, 0.0127, and 0.0140) than a traditional RRS approach (mean IQRs of 0.0297, 0.0779, and 0.305) that does not employ cross-validation sampling for all three datasets. PMID:25993029

Lymphatic endothelial S1P promotes mitochondrial function and survival in naive T cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, Alejandra; Fang, Victoria; Chen, Cynthia; Serasinghe, Madhavika; Verma, Akanksha; Muller, James; Chaluvadi, V Sai; Dustin, Michael L; Hla, Timothy; Elemento, Olivier; Chipuk, Jerry E; Schwab, Susan R

2017-06-01

Effective adaptive immune responses require a large repertoire of naive T cells that migrate throughout the body, rapidly identifying almost any foreign peptide. Because the production of T cells declines with age, naive T cells must be long-lived. However, it remains unclear how naive T cells survive for years while constantly travelling. The chemoattractant sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) guides T cell circulation among secondary lymphoid organs, including spleen, lymph nodes and Peyer's patches, where T cells search for antigens. The concentration of S1P is higher in circulatory fluids than in lymphoid organs, and the S1P 1 receptor (S1P 1 R) directs the exit of T cells from the spleen into blood, and from lymph nodes and Peyer's patches into lymph. Here we show that S1P is essential not only for the circulation of naive T cells, but also for their survival. Using transgenic mouse models, we demonstrate that lymphatic endothelial cells support the survival of T cells by secreting S1P via the transporter SPNS2, that this S1P signals through S1P 1 R on T cells, and that the requirement for S1P 1 R is independent of the established role of the receptor in guiding exit from lymph nodes. S1P signalling maintains the mitochondrial content of naive T cells, providing cells with the energy to continue their constant migration. The S1P signalling pathway is being targeted therapeutically to inhibit autoreactive T cell trafficking, and these findings suggest that it may be possible simultaneously to target autoreactive or malignant cell survival.

A Framework for Final Drive Simultaneous Failure Diagnosis Based on Fuzzy Entropy and Sparse Bayesian Extreme Learning Machine

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Qing Ye

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This research proposes a novel framework of final drive simultaneous failure diagnosis containing feature extraction, training paired diagnostic models, generating decision threshold, and recognizing simultaneous failure modes. In feature extraction module, adopt wavelet package transform and fuzzy entropy to reduce noise interference and extract representative features of failure mode. Use single failure sample to construct probability classifiers based on paired sparse Bayesian extreme learning machine which is trained only by single failure modes and have high generalization and sparsity of sparse Bayesian learning approach. To generate optimal decision threshold which can convert probability output obtained from classifiers into final simultaneous failure modes, this research proposes using samples containing both single and simultaneous failure modes and Grid search method which is superior to traditional techniques in global optimization. Compared with other frequently used diagnostic approaches based on support vector machine and probability neural networks, experiment results based on F1-measure value verify that the diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework which are crucial for simultaneous failure diagnosis are superior to the existing approach.

Spatio-Temporal Series Remote Sensing Image Prediction Based on Multi-Dictionary Bayesian Fusion

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Chu He

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Contradictions in spatial resolution and temporal coverage emerge from earth observation remote sensing images due to limitations in technology and cost. Therefore, how to combine remote sensing images with low spatial yet high temporal resolution as well as those with high spatial yet low temporal resolution to construct images with both high spatial resolution and high temporal coverage has become an important problem called spatio-temporal fusion problem in both research and practice. A Multi-Dictionary Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Reflectance Fusion Model (MDBFM has been proposed in this paper. First, multiple dictionaries from regions of different classes are trained. Second, a Bayesian framework is constructed to solve the dictionary selection problem. A pixel-dictionary likehood function and a dictionary-dictionary prior function are constructed under the Bayesian framework. Third, remote sensing images before and after the middle moment are combined to predict images at the middle moment. Diverse shapes and textures information is learned from different landscapes in multi-dictionary learning to help dictionaries capture the distinctions between regions. The Bayesian framework makes full use of the priori information while the input image is classified. The experiments with one simulated dataset and two satellite datasets validate that the MDBFM is highly effective in both subjective and objective evaluation indexes. The results of MDBFM show more precise details and have a higher similarity with real images when dealing with both type changes and phenology changes.

Automated classifiers for early detection and diagnosis of retinopathy in diabetic eyes.

Science.gov (United States)

Somfai, Gábor Márk; Tátrai, Erika; Laurik, Lenke; Varga, Boglárka; Ölvedy, Veronika; Jiang, Hong; Wang, Jianhua; Smiddy, William E; Somogyi, Anikó; DeBuc, Delia Cabrera

2014-04-12

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been used to classify eye diseases, such as diabetic retinopathy (DR) and glaucoma. DR is the leading cause of blindness in working-age adults in the developed world. The implementation of DR diagnostic routines could be feasibly improved by the integration of structural and optical property test measurements of the retinal structure that provide important and complementary information for reaching a diagnosis. In this study, we evaluate the capability of several structural and optical features (thickness, total reflectance and fractal dimension) of various intraretinal layers extracted from optical coherence tomography images to train a Bayesian ANN to discriminate between healthy and diabetic eyes with and with no mild retinopathy. When exploring the probability as to whether the subject's eye was healthy (diagnostic condition, Test 1), we found that the structural and optical property features of the outer plexiform layer (OPL) and the complex formed by the ganglion cell and inner plexiform layers (GCL + IPL) provided the highest probability (positive predictive value (PPV) of 91% and 89%, respectively) for the proportion of patients with positive test results (healthy condition) who were correctly diagnosed (Test 1). The true negative, TP and PPV values remained stable despite the different sizes of training data sets (Test 2). The sensitivity, specificity and PPV were greater or close to 0.70 for the retinal nerve fiber layer's features, photoreceptor outer segments and retinal pigment epithelium when 23 diabetic eyes with mild retinopathy were mixed with 38 diabetic eyes with no retinopathy (Test 3). A Bayesian ANN trained on structural and optical features from optical coherence tomography data can successfully discriminate between healthy and diabetic eyes with and with no retinopathy. The fractal dimension of the OPL and the GCL + IPL complex predicted by the Bayesian radial basis function network provides better

The Ras GTPase-activating protein Rasal3 supports survival of naive T cells.

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Ryunosuke Muro

Full Text Available The Ras-mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK pathway is crucial for T cell receptor (TCR signaling in the development and function of T cells. The significance of various modulators of the Ras-MAPK pathway in T cells, however, remains to be fully understood. Ras-activating protein-like 3 (Rasal3 is an uncharacterized member of the SynGAP family that contains a conserved Ras GTPase-activating protein (GAP domain, and is predominantly expressed in the T cell lineage. In the current study, we investigated the function and physiological roles of Rasal3. Our results showed that Rasal3 possesses RasGAP activity, but not Rap1GAP activity, and represses TCR-stimulated ERK phosphorylation in a T cell line. In systemic Rasal3-deficient mice, T cell development in the thymus including positive selection, negative selection, and β-selection was unaffected. However, the number of naive, but not effector memory CD4 and CD8 T cell in the periphery was significantly reduced in Rasal3-deficient mice, and associated with a marked increase in apoptosis of these cells. Indeed, survival of Rasal3 deficient naive CD4 T cells in vivo by adoptive transfer was significantly impaired, whereas IL-7-dependent survival of naive CD4 T cells in vitro was unaltered. Collectively, Rasal3 is required for in vivo survival of peripheral naive T cells, contributing to the maintenance of optimal T cell numbers.

Activity Recognition Using Fusion of Low-Cost Sensors on a Smartphone for Mobile Navigation Application

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Sara Saeedi

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Low-cost inertial and motion sensors embedded on smartphones have provided a new platform for dynamic activity pattern inference. In this research, a comparison has been conducted on different sensor data, feature spaces and feature selection methods to increase the efficiency and reduce the computation cost of activity recognition on the smartphones. We evaluated a variety of feature spaces and a number of classification algorithms from the area of Machine Learning, including Naive Bayes, Decision Trees, Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine classifiers. A smartphone app that performs activity recognition is being developed to collect data and send them to a server for activity recognition. Using extensive experiments, the performance of various feature spaces has been evaluated. The results showed that the Bayesian Network classifier yields recognition accuracy of 96.21% using four features while requiring fewer computations.

Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

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Asad Ali

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

Prediction of myelopathic level in cervical spondylotic myelopathy using diffusion tensor imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shu-Qiang; Li, Xiang; Cui, Jiao-Long; Li, Han-Xiong; Luk, Keith D K; Hu, Yong

2015-06-01

To investigate the use of a newly designed machine learning-based classifier in the automatic identification of myelopathic levels in cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). In all, 58 normal volunteers and 16 subjects with CSM were recruited for diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) acquisition. The eigenvalues were extracted as the selected features from DTI images. Three classifiers, naive Bayesian, support vector machine, and support tensor machine, and fractional anisotropy (FA) were employed to identify myelopathic levels. The results were compared with clinical level diagnosis results and accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated to evaluate the performance of the developed classifiers. The accuracy by support tensor machine was the highest (93.62%) among the three classifiers. The support tensor machine also showed excellent capacity to identify true positives (sensitivity: 84.62%) and true negatives (specificity: 97.06%). The accuracy by FA value was the lowest (76%) in all the methods. The classifiers-based method using eigenvalues had a better performance in identifying the levels of CSM than the diagnosis using FA values. The support tensor machine was the best among three classifiers. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Gene expression-based classifiers identify Staphylococcus aureus infection in mice and humans.

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Sun Hee Ahn

Full Text Available Staphylococcus aureus causes a spectrum of human infection. Diagnostic delays and uncertainty lead to treatment delays and inappropriate antibiotic use. A growing literature suggests the host's inflammatory response to the pathogen represents a potential tool to improve upon current diagnostics. The hypothesis of this study is that the host responds differently to S. aureus than to E. coli infection in a quantifiable way, providing a new diagnostic avenue. This study uses Bayesian sparse factor modeling and penalized binary regression to define peripheral blood gene-expression classifiers of murine and human S. aureus infection. The murine-derived classifier distinguished S. aureus infection from healthy controls and Escherichia coli-infected mice across a range of conditions (mouse and bacterial strain, time post infection and was validated in outbred mice (AUC>0.97. A S. aureus classifier derived from a cohort of 94 human subjects distinguished S. aureus blood stream infection (BSI from healthy subjects (AUC 0.99 and E. coli BSI (AUC 0.84. Murine and human responses to S. aureus infection share common biological pathways, allowing the murine model to classify S. aureus BSI in humans (AUC 0.84. Both murine and human S. aureus classifiers were validated in an independent human cohort (AUC 0.95 and 0.92, respectively. The approach described here lends insight into the conserved and disparate pathways utilized by mice and humans in response to these infections. Furthermore, this study advances our understanding of S. aureus infection; the host response to it; and identifies new diagnostic and therapeutic avenues.

Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

2004-09-01

ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

Classifier-guided sampling for discrete variable, discontinuous design space exploration: Convergence and computational performance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backlund, Peter B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shahan, David W. [HRL Labs., LLC, Malibu, CA (United States); Seepersad, Carolyn Conner [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

2014-04-22

A classifier-guided sampling (CGS) method is introduced for solving engineering design optimization problems with discrete and/or continuous variables and continuous and/or discontinuous responses. The method merges concepts from metamodel-guided sampling and population-based optimization algorithms. The CGS method uses a Bayesian network classifier for predicting the performance of new designs based on a set of known observations or training points. Unlike most metamodeling techniques, however, the classifier assigns a categorical class label to a new design, rather than predicting the resulting response in continuous space, and thereby accommodates nondifferentiable and discontinuous functions of discrete or categorical variables. The CGS method uses these classifiers to guide a population-based sampling process towards combinations of discrete and/or continuous variable values with a high probability of yielding preferred performance. Accordingly, the CGS method is appropriate for discrete/discontinuous design problems that are ill-suited for conventional metamodeling techniques and too computationally expensive to be solved by population-based algorithms alone. In addition, the rates of convergence and computational properties of the CGS method are investigated when applied to a set of discrete variable optimization problems. Results show that the CGS method significantly improves the rate of convergence towards known global optima, on average, when compared to genetic algorithms.

Bayesian Nonparametric Regression Analysis of Data with Random Effects Covariates from Longitudinal Measurements

KAUST Repository

Ryu, Duchwan

2010-09-28

We consider nonparametric regression analysis in a generalized linear model (GLM) framework for data with covariates that are the subject-specific random effects of longitudinal measurements. The usual assumption that the effects of the longitudinal covariate processes are linear in the GLM may be unrealistic and if this happens it can cast doubt on the inference of observed covariate effects. Allowing the regression functions to be unknown, we propose to apply Bayesian nonparametric methods including cubic smoothing splines or P-splines for the possible nonlinearity and use an additive model in this complex setting. To improve computational efficiency, we propose the use of data-augmentation schemes. The approach allows flexible covariance structures for the random effects and within-subject measurement errors of the longitudinal processes. The posterior model space is explored through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. The proposed methods are illustrated and compared to other approaches, the "naive" approach and the regression calibration, via simulations and by an application that investigates the relationship between obesity in adulthood and childhood growth curves. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

Bayesian approach to MSD-based analysis of particle motion in live cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Monnier, Nilah; Guo, Syuan-Ming; Mori, Masashi; He, Jun; Lénárt, Péter; Bathe, Mark

2012-08-08

Quantitative tracking of particle motion using live-cell imaging is a powerful approach to understanding the mechanism of transport of biological molecules, organelles, and cells. However, inferring complex stochastic motion models from single-particle trajectories in an objective manner is nontrivial due to noise from sampling limitations and biological heterogeneity. Here, we present a systematic Bayesian approach to multiple-hypothesis testing of a general set of competing motion models based on particle mean-square displacements that automatically classifies particle motion, properly accounting for sampling limitations and correlated noise while appropriately penalizing model complexity according to Occam's Razor to avoid over-fitting. We test the procedure rigorously using simulated trajectories for which the underlying physical process is known, demonstrating that it chooses the simplest physical model that explains the observed data. Further, we show that computed model probabilities provide a reliability test for the downstream biological interpretation of associated parameter values. We subsequently illustrate the broad utility of the approach by applying it to disparate biological systems including experimental particle trajectories from chromosomes, kinetochores, and membrane receptors undergoing a variety of complex motions. This automated and objective Bayesian framework easily scales to large numbers of particle trajectories, making it ideal for classifying the complex motion of large numbers of single molecules and cells from high-throughput screens, as well as single-cell-, tissue-, and organism-level studies. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monitoring the initiation and kinetics of human dendritic cell-induced polarization of autologous naive CD4+ T cells.

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Tammy Oth

Full Text Available A crucial step in generating de novo immune responses is the polarization of naive cognate CD4+ T cells by pathogen-triggered dendritic cells (DC. In the human setting, standardized DC-dependent systems are lacking to study molecular events during the initiation of a naive CD4+ T cell response. We developed a TCR-restricted assay to compare different pathogen-triggered human DC for their capacities to instruct functional differentiation of autologous, naive CD4+ T cells. We demonstrated that this methodology can be applied to compare differently matured DC in terms of kinetics, direction, and magnitude of the naive CD4+ T cell response. Furthermore, we showed the applicability of this assay to study the T cell polarizing capacity of low-frequency blood-derived DC populations directly isolated ex vivo. This methodology for addressing APC-dependent instruction of naive CD4+ T cells in a human autologous setting will provide researchers with a valuable tool to gain more insight into molecular mechanisms occurring in the early phase of T cell polarization. In addition, it may also allow the study of pharmacological agents on DC-dependent T cell polarization in the human system.

New neural network classifier of fall-risk based on the Mahalanobis distance and kinematic parameters assessed by a wearable device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giansanti, Daniele; Macellari, Velio; Maccioni, Giovanni

2008-01-01

Fall prevention lacks easy, quantitative and wearable methods for the classification of fall-risk (FR). Efforts must be thus devoted to the choice of an ad hoc classifier both to reduce the size of the sample used to train the classifier and to improve performances. A new methodology that uses a neural network (NN) and a wearable device are hereby proposed for this purpose. The NN uses kinematic parameters assessed by a wearable device with accelerometers and rate gyroscopes during a posturography protocol. The training of the NN was based on the Mahalanobis distance and was carried out on two groups of 30 elderly subjects with varying fall-risk Tinetti scores. The validation was done on two groups of 100 subjects with different fall-risk Tinetti scores and showed that, both in terms of specificity and sensitivity, the NN performed better than other classifiers (naive Bayes, Bayes net, multilayer perceptron, support vector machines, statistical classifiers). In particular, (i) the proposed NN methodology improved the specificity and sensitivity by a mean of 3% when compared to the statistical classifier based on the Mahalanobis distance (SCMD) described in Giansanti (2006 Physiol. Meas. 27 1081–90); (ii) the assessed specificity was 97%, the assessed sensitivity was 98% and the area under receiver operator characteristics was 0.965. (note)

Signal-BNF: A Bayesian Network Fusing Approach to Predict Signal Peptides

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Zhi Zheng

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A signal peptide is a short peptide chain that directs the transport of a protein and has become the crucial vehicle in finding new drugs or reprogramming cells for gene therapy. As the avalanche of new protein sequences generated in the postgenomic era, the challenge of identifying new signal sequences has become even more urgent and critical in biomedical engineering. In this paper, we propose a novel predictor called Signal-BNF to predict the N-terminal signal peptide as well as its cleavage site based on Bayesian reasoning network. Signal-BNF is formed by fusing the results of different Bayesian classifiers which used different feature datasets as its input through weighted voting system. Experiment results show that Signal-BNF is superior to the popular online predictors such as Signal-3L and PrediSi. Signal-BNF is featured by high prediction accuracy that may serve as a useful tool for further investigating many unclear details regarding the molecular mechanism of the zip code protein-sorting system in cells.

Basics of Bayesian methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

Bayesian computation with R

CERN Document Server

Albert, Jim

2009-01-01

There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

Efficacy and durability of nevirapine in antiretroviral drug naive patients

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lange, Joep M. A.

2003-01-01

Nevirapine is a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) that was first reported in the scientific literature in 1990. Varying doses of nevirapine (NVP) and a number of regimens containing this NNRTI have been studied in antiretroviral (ARV) naive patients. Four key studies have

The Bayesian Score Statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

2000-01-01

We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belinda Hernández

2015-12-01

In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

Bayesian inference with ecological applications

CERN Document Server

Link, William A

2009-01-01

This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

Naive (commonsense) geography and geobrowser usability after ten years of Google Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Hamerlinck, J. D.

2016-04-01

In 1995, the concept of ‘naive geography’ was formally introduced as an area of cognitive geographic information science representing ‘the body of knowledge that people have about the surrounding geographic world’ and reflecting ‘the way people think and reason about geographic space and time, both consciously and subconsciously’. The need to incorporate such commonsense knowledge and reasoning into design of geospatial technologies was identified but faced challenges in formalizing these relationships and processes in software implementation. Ten years later, the Google Earth geobrowser was released, marking the beginning of a new era of open access to, and application of, geographic data and information in society. Fast-forward to today, and the opportunity presents itself to take stock of twenty years of naive geography and a decade of the ubiquitous virtual globe. This paper introduces an ongoing research effort to explore the integration of naive (or commonsense) geography concepts in the Google Earth geobrowser virtual globe and their possible impact on Google Earth's usability, utility, and usefulness. A multi-phase methodology is described, combining usability reviews and usability testing with use-case scenarios involving the U.S.-Canadian Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative. Initial progress on a usability review combining cognitive walkthroughs and heuristics evaluation is presented.

Ensemble of Chaotic and Naive Approaches for Performance Enhancement in Video Encryption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeyamala Chandrasekaran

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Owing to the growth of high performance network technologies, multimedia applications over the Internet are increasing exponentially. Applications like video conferencing, video-on-demand, and pay-per-view depend upon encryption algorithms for providing confidentiality. Video communication is characterized by distinct features such as large volume, high redundancy between adjacent frames, video codec compliance, syntax compliance, and application specific requirements. Naive approaches for video encryption encrypt the entire video stream with conventional text based cryptographic algorithms. Although naive approaches are the most secure for video encryption, the computational cost associated with them is very high. This research work aims at enhancing the speed of naive approaches through chaos based S-box design. Chaotic equations are popularly known for randomness, extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, and ergodicity. The proposed methodology employs two-dimensional discrete Henon map for (i generation of dynamic and key-dependent S-box that could be integrated with symmetric algorithms like Blowfish and Data Encryption Standard (DES and (ii generation of one-time keys for simple substitution ciphers. The proposed design is tested for randomness, nonlinearity, avalanche effect, bit independence criterion, and key sensitivity. Experimental results confirm that chaos based S-box design and key generation significantly reduce the computational cost of video encryption with no compromise in security.

Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

CERN Document Server

Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

2015-01-01

Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

Three Naive Questions: Addressed to the Modern Educational Optimism

Science.gov (United States)

Krstic, Predrag

2016-01-01

This paper aims to question anew the popular and supposedly self-evident affirmation of education, in its modern incarnation as in its historical notion. The "naive" questions suggest that we have recently taken for granted that education ought to be for the masses, that it ought to be upbringing, and that it is better than ignorance.…

Naive forecasting: the fiasco of coal gasification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peirce, W S

1985-01-01

The decision by the U.S. government to subsidize the development of coal gasification was based on a naive forecast that neglected the influence of price on both conventional sources of supply and consumer demand. Even before substantial construction costs were incurred on the Great Plains plant, a surplus of natural gas has developed. The political process, however, did not include the sort of critical review that often accompanies the financing decision in the private sector and that would surely have prevented this error. 17 references.

A Bayesian framework for risk perception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, H.R.N.

2017-01-01

We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

Comparison of classifiers for decoding sensory and cognitive information from prefrontal neuronal populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elaine Astrand

Full Text Available Decoding neuronal information is important in neuroscience, both as a basic means to understand how neuronal activity is related to cerebral function and as a processing stage in driving neuroprosthetic effectors. Here, we compare the readout performance of six commonly used classifiers at decoding two different variables encoded by the spiking activity of the non-human primate frontal eye fields (FEF: the spatial position of a visual cue, and the instructed orientation of the animal's attention. While the first variable is exogenously driven by the environment, the second variable corresponds to the interpretation of the instruction conveyed by the cue; it is endogenously driven and corresponds to the output of internal cognitive operations performed on the visual attributes of the cue. These two variables were decoded using either a regularized optimal linear estimator in its explicit formulation, an optimal linear artificial neural network estimator, a non-linear artificial neural network estimator, a non-linear naïve Bayesian estimator, a non-linear Reservoir recurrent network classifier or a non-linear Support Vector Machine classifier. Our results suggest that endogenous information such as the orientation of attention can be decoded from the FEF with the same accuracy as exogenous visual information. All classifiers did not behave equally in the face of population size and heterogeneity, the available training and testing trials, the subject's behavior and the temporal structure of the variable of interest. In most situations, the regularized optimal linear estimator and the non-linear Support Vector Machine classifiers outperformed the other tested decoders.

1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 impairs NF-κB activation in human naive B cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geldmeyer-Hilt, Kerstin; Heine, Guido; Hartmann, Bjoern; Baumgrass, Ria; Radbruch, Andreas; Worm, Margitta

2011-01-01

Highlights: → In naive B cells, VDR activation by calcitriol results in reduced NF-κB p105 and p50 protein expression. → Ligating the VDR with calcitriol causes reduced nuclear translocation of NF-κB p65. → Reduced nuclear amount of p65 after calcitriol incubation results in reduced binding of p65 on the p105 promoter. → Thus, vitamin D receptor signaling may reduce or prevent activation of B cells and unwanted immune responses, e.g. in IgE dependent diseases such as allergic asthma. -- Abstract: 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D 3 (calcitriol), the bioactive metabolite of vitamin D, modulates the activation and inhibits IgE production of anti-CD40 and IL-4 stimulated human peripheral B cells. Engagement of CD40 results in NF-κB p50 activation, which is essential for the class switch to IgE. Herein, we investigated by which mechanism calcitriol modulates NF-κB mediated activation of human naive B cells. Naive B cells were predominantly targeted by calcitriol in comparison with memory B cells as shown by pronounced induction of the VDR target gene cyp24a1. Vitamin D receptor activation resulted in a strongly reduced p105/p50 protein and mRNA expression in human naive B cells. This effect is mediated by impaired nuclear translocation of p65 and consequently reduced binding of p65 to its binding site in the p105 promoter. Our data indicate that the vitamin D receptor reduces NF-κB activation by interference with NF-κB p65 and p105. Thus, the vitamin D receptor inhibits costimulatory signal transduction in naive B cells, namely by reducing CD40 signaling.

Results of the naive quark model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gignoux, C.

1987-10-01

The hypotheses and limits of the naive quark model are recalled and results on nucleon-nucleon scattering and possible multiquark states are presented. Results show that with this model, ropers do not come. For hadron-hadron interactions, the model predicts Van der Waals forces that the resonance group method does not allow. Known many-body forces are not found in the model. The lack of mesons shows up in the absence of a far reaching force. However, the model does have strengths. It is free from spuriousness of center of mass, and allows a democratic handling of flavor. It has few parameters, and its predictions are very good [fr

Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

1998-12-01

Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

The naive CD4+ count in HIV-1-infected patients at time of initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy is strongly associated with the level of immunological recovery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Michael, OG; Kirk, O; Mathiesen, Lars Reinhardt

2002-01-01

CD4 + count followed a triphasic pattern, reflecting an initial phase of rapid redistribution from lymphoid tissues, followed by a slow increase, partially due to an increase in naive CD4+ cell count. From Month 18 onwards, both naive and total CD4 + cell counts stabilized, although viral suppression......-infected patients. The focus was on the naive CD4 + cell time course and associations between naive CD4 + cell counts and established prognostic markers. Total and naive CD4 + cell counts were measured using flow cytometry. The HIV-RNA detection limit was 20 copies/ml. During 36 months of HAART, the total...... was sustained. There was no association between plasma viral load and the increase in naive CD4 + cell count. Importantly, baseline naive CD4 + cell count was significantly associated with the change in naive CD4 + cell count, suggesting that the naive cell count at baseline does influence the immunological...

Decreased naive and increased memory CD4(+ T cells are associated with subclinical atherosclerosis: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nels C Olson

Full Text Available Adaptive immunity has been implicated in atherosclerosis in animal models and small clinical studies. Whether chronic immune activation is associated with atherosclerosis in otherwise healthy individuals remains underexplored. We hypothesized that activation of adaptive immune responses, as reflected by higher proportions of circulating CD4(+ memory cells and lower proportions of naive cells, would be associated with subclinical atherosclerosis.We examined cross-sectional relationships of circulating CD4(+ naive and memory T cells with biomarkers of inflammation, serologies, and subclinical atherosclerosis in 912 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA. Circulating CD4(+ naive cells were higher in women than men and decreased with age (all p-values <0.0001. European-Americans had higher levels of naive cells and lower levels of memory cells compared with African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans (all p-values ≤0.0005. Lower naive/higher memory cells were associated with interleukin-6 levels. In multivariate models, cytomegalovirus (CMV and H. Pylori titers were strongly associated with higher memory and lower naive cells (all p-values <0.05. Higher memory cells were associated with coronary artery calcification (CAC level in the overall population [β-Coefficient (95% confidence interval (CI  = 0.20 (0.03, 0.37]. Memory and naive (inversely cells were associated with common carotid artery intimal media thickness (CC IMT in European-Americans [memory: β =  0.02 (0.006, 0.04; naive: β = -0.02 (-0.004, -0.03].These results demonstrate that the degree of chronic adaptive immune activation is associated with both CAC and CC IMT in otherwise healthy individuals, consistent with the known role of CD4(+ T cells, and with innate immunity (inflammation, in atherosclerosis. These data are also consistent with the hypothesis that immunosenescence accelerates chronic diseases by putting a greater burden on the innate

Expert and Naive Raters Using the PAG: Does it Matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Cornelius, Edwin T.; And Others

1984-01-01

Questions the observed correlation between job experts and naive raters using the Position Analysis Questionnaire (PAQ); and conducts a replication of the Smith and Hakel study (1979) with college students (N=39). Concluded that PAQ ratings from job experts and college students are not equivalent and therefore are not interchangeable. (LLL)

Gene-Based Multiclass Cancer Diagnosis with Class-Selective Rejections

Science.gov (United States)

Jrad, Nisrine; Grall-Maës, Edith; Beauseroy, Pierre

2009-01-01

Supervised learning of microarray data is receiving much attention in recent years. Multiclass cancer diagnosis, based on selected gene profiles, are used as adjunct of clinical diagnosis. However, supervised diagnosis may hinder patient care, add expense or confound a result. To avoid this misleading, a multiclass cancer diagnosis with class-selective rejection is proposed. It rejects some patients from one, some, or all classes in order to ensure a higher reliability while reducing time and expense costs. Moreover, this classifier takes into account asymmetric penalties dependant on each class and on each wrong or partially correct decision. It is based on ν-1-SVM coupled with its regularization path and minimizes a general loss function defined in the class-selective rejection scheme. The state of art multiclass algorithms can be considered as a particular case of the proposed algorithm where the number of decisions is given by the classes and the loss function is defined by the Bayesian risk. Two experiments are carried out in the Bayesian and the class selective rejection frameworks. Five genes selected datasets are used to assess the performance of the proposed method. Results are discussed and accuracies are compared with those computed by the Naive Bayes, Nearest Neighbor, Linear Perceptron, Multilayer Perceptron, and Support Vector Machines classifiers. PMID:19584932

Right lateralized white matter abnormalities in first-episode, drug-naive paranoid schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Wenbin; Liu, Feng; Liu, Zhening; Gao, Keming; Xiao, Changqing; Chen, Huafu; Zhao, Jingping

2012-11-30

Numerous studies in first-episode schizophrenia suggest the involvement of white matter (WM) abnormalities in multiple regions underlying the pathogenesis of this condition. However, there has never been a neuroimaging study in patients with first-episode, drug-naive paranoid schizophrenia by using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) method. Here, we used diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) with TBSS method to investigate the brain WM integrity in patients with first-episode, drug-naive paranoid schizophrenia. Twenty patients with first-episode, drug-naive paranoid schizophrenia and 26 healthy subjects matched with age, gender, and education level were scanned with DTI. An automated TBSS approach was employed to analyze the data. Voxel-wise statistics revealed that patients with paranoid schizophrenia had decreased fractional anisotropy (FA) values in the right superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF) II, the right fornix, the right internal capsule, and the right external capsule compared to healthy subjects. Patients did not have increased FA values in any brain regions compared to healthy subjects. There was no correlation between the FA values in any brain regions and patient demographics and the severity of illness. Our findings suggest right-sided alterations of WM integrity in the WM tracts of cortical and subcortical regions may play an important role in the pathogenesis of paranoid schizophrenia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

Naive and effector B-cell subtypes are increased in chronic rhinosinusitis with polyps.

Science.gov (United States)

Miljkovic, Dijana; Psaltis, Alkis; Wormald, Peter-John; Vreugde, Sarah

2018-01-01

Recent studies demonstrated that B cells and their chemoattractants are elevated in the nasal mucosa of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) with nasal polyposis (CRSwNP). However, the presence of naive B cells and of plasmablasts and memory B-cell subsets in the mucosa and periphery of the same patient with CRS is yet to be characterized. Here we sought to quantify naive, plasmablasts, and memory B cells in mucosal tissue and peripheral blood of patients with CRSwNP, patients with CRS without nasal polyps (CRSsNP), and control patients. Polyps, mucosa, and peripheral blood samples were prospectively collected from the patients with CRS and from the non-CRS controls. We used flow cytometry to distinguish among naive, plasmablast, and memory B cells in sinus tissue and peripheral blood. A total of 45 patients were recruited for the study. The patients with CRSwNP had significantly increased mucosal B-cell numbers versus the controls (3.39 ± 4.05% versus 0.39 ± 1.05% of live cells; p Kruskal-Wallis test), which included naive B cells (0.61 ± 0.94 versus 0.11 ± 0.24% of live cells; p Kruskal-Wallis test), plasmablasts (0.06 ± 0.26 versus 0.00 ± 0.00% of live cells; p Kruskal-Wallis test), and memory B cells (0.62 ± 1.26 versus 0.05 ± 0.15% of live cells; p Kruskal-Wallis test). Our study identified increased frequencies of different B-cell subtypes in the mucosa of patients with CRSwNP but not in the peripheral blood. We also found that patients with CRSwNP had significantly increased B-cell subtypes compared with the patients with CRSsNP and the controls. These results implied a potential role for mucosal B cells in the ongoing inflammation in patients with CRSwNP.

Associations between vascular co-morbidities and depression in insulin-naive diabetes patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koopmans, B; Pouwer, F; de Bie, Rob A

2009-01-01

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of depression in insulin-naive diabetes patients and to investigate the associations between different forms of vascular co-morbidity and depression. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were used from a primary-care sample of 1......,269 insulin-naive (i.e. not using insulin therapy) diabetes patients participating in the DIAZOB Primary Care Diabetes study. Demographics, vascular co-morbidities, clinical and lifestyle characteristics, and psychosocial factors were assessed. Depression symptoms were measured with the Edinburgh Depression.......2% vs 10.0%). Single vascular co-morbidities were not associated with increased rates of depression. The final model predicting depression included: having multiple vascular co-morbidities compared with none; having less social support; having experienced a recent stressful life event; female sex...

3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

2017-01-01

This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D{sub 3} impairs NF-{kappa}B activation in human naive B cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geldmeyer-Hilt, Kerstin, E-mail: kerstin.hilt@charite.de [Allergie-Centrum-Charite, CCM, Klinik fuer Dermatologie und Allergologie, Charite - Universitaetsmedizin Berlin, Chariteplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Heine, Guido, E-mail: guido.heine@charite.de [Allergie-Centrum-Charite, CCM, Klinik fuer Dermatologie und Allergologie, Charite - Universitaetsmedizin Berlin, Chariteplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Deutsches Rheuma-Forschungszentrum Berlin, Chariteplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Hartmann, Bjoern, E-mail: bjoern.hartmann@charite.de [Allergie-Centrum-Charite, CCM, Klinik fuer Dermatologie und Allergologie, Charite - Universitaetsmedizin Berlin, Chariteplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Baumgrass, Ria, E-mail: baumgrass@drfz.de [Deutsches Rheuma-Forschungszentrum Berlin, Chariteplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Radbruch, Andreas, E-mail: radbruch@drfz.de [Deutsches Rheuma-Forschungszentrum Berlin, Chariteplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Worm, Margitta, E-mail: margitta.worm@charite.de [Allergie-Centrum-Charite, CCM, Klinik fuer Dermatologie und Allergologie, Charite - Universitaetsmedizin Berlin, Chariteplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany)

2011-04-22

Highlights: {yields} In naive B cells, VDR activation by calcitriol results in reduced NF-{kappa}B p105 and p50 protein expression. {yields} Ligating the VDR with calcitriol causes reduced nuclear translocation of NF-{kappa}B p65. {yields} Reduced nuclear amount of p65 after calcitriol incubation results in reduced binding of p65 on the p105 promoter. {yields} Thus, vitamin D receptor signaling may reduce or prevent activation of B cells and unwanted immune responses, e.g. in IgE dependent diseases such as allergic asthma. -- Abstract: 1{alpha},25-dihydroxyvitamin D{sub 3} (calcitriol), the bioactive metabolite of vitamin D, modulates the activation and inhibits IgE production of anti-CD40 and IL-4 stimulated human peripheral B cells. Engagement of CD40 results in NF-{kappa}B p50 activation, which is essential for the class switch to IgE. Herein, we investigated by which mechanism calcitriol modulates NF-{kappa}B mediated activation of human naive B cells. Naive B cells were predominantly targeted by calcitriol in comparison with memory B cells as shown by pronounced induction of the VDR target gene cyp24a1. Vitamin D receptor activation resulted in a strongly reduced p105/p50 protein and mRNA expression in human naive B cells. This effect is mediated by impaired nuclear translocation of p65 and consequently reduced binding of p65 to its binding site in the p105 promoter. Our data indicate that the vitamin D receptor reduces NF-{kappa}B activation by interference with NF-{kappa}B p65 and p105. Thus, the vitamin D receptor inhibits costimulatory signal transduction in naive B cells, namely by reducing CD40 signaling.

Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

2003-01-01

been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

Lipid Profile of Anti Retroviral Treatment Naive HIV Infected Patients ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

hypercholesterolemia [22.4% (22/98) vs. 10.4% (11/106), P = 0.02]. Lower HDL.C was associated with CD4+ cell count < 200 cells/ƒÊL (P = 0.02). Conclusion: Lipid abnormalities are common in treatment.naive HIV.infected patients even in the absence of major host.related risk factors for dyslipidemia. HIV.infected patients ...

A Workshop for High School Students on Naive Set Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Wegner, Sven-Ake

2014-01-01

In this article we present the prototype of a workshop on naive set theory designed for high school students in or around the seventh year of primary education. Our concept is based on two events which the author organized in 2006 and 2010 for students of elementary school and high school, respectively. The article also includes a practice report…

2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

2015-01-01

The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

CERN Document Server

Zeevat, Henk

2015-01-01

The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stein, A.

2004-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

Prediction of community prevalence of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus: Bayesian approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Carabin, Hélène; Escalona, Marisela; Marshall, Clare; Vivas-Martínez, Sarai; Botto, Carlos; Joseph, Lawrence; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2003-01-01

To develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for human onchocerciasis with which to explore the factors that influence prevalence of microfilariae in the Amazonian focus of onchocerciasis and predict the probability of any community being at least mesoendemic (>20% prevalence of microfilariae), and thus in need of priority ivermectin treatment. Models were developed with data from 732 individuals aged > or =15 years who lived in 29 Yanomami communities along four rivers of the south Venezuelan Orinoco basin. The models' abilities to predict prevalences of microfilariae in communities were compared. The deviance information criterion, Bayesian P-values, and residual values were used to select the best model with an approximate cross-validation procedure. A three-level model that acknowledged clustering of infection within communities performed best, with host age and sex included at the individual level, a river-dependent altitude effect at the community level, and additional clustering of communities along rivers. This model correctly classified 25/29 (86%) villages with respect to their need for priority ivermectin treatment. Bayesian methods are a flexible and useful approach for public health research and control planning. Our model acknowledges the clustering of infection within communities, allows investigation of links between individual- or community-specific characteristics and infection, incorporates additional uncertainty due to missing covariate data, and informs policy decisions by predicting the probability that a new community is at least mesoendemic.

Safety and efficacy of tiotropium Respimat versus HandiHaler in patients naive to treatment with inhaled anticholinergics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wise, Robert; Calverley, Peter Ma; Dahl, Ronald

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who were naive to anticholinergics before the TIOtropium Safety and Performance In Respimat (TIOSPIR) trial may reflect patients seen in practice, in particular in primary care. In addition, investigating safety...... in these patients avoids the potential bias in patients who previously received anticholinergics and may be tolerant of their effects. AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether patients naive to anticholinergic therapy who were treated with tiotropium Respimat 2.5 or 5 μg had different safety and efficacy...... the Respimat and HandiHaler groups. Rates of exacerbations in the subgroup of patients with moderate disease were similar across the Respimat and HandiHaler groups. CONCLUSIONS: Tiotropium Respimat and HandiHaler have similar safety and efficacy profiles in patients who are naive to anticholinergic therapy....

Short-lived brain state after cued motor imagery in naive subjects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfurtscheller, G.; Scherer, R.; Müller-Putz, G.R.; Lopes da Silva, F.H.

2008-01-01

Multi-channel electroencephalography recordings have shown that a visual cue, indicating right hand, left hand or foot motor imagery, can induce a short-lived brain state in the order of about 500 ms. In the present study, 10 able-bodied subjects without any motor imagery experience (naive subjects)

A review and experimental study on the application of classifiers and evolutionary algorithms in EEG-based brain-machine interface systems

Science.gov (United States)

Tahernezhad-Javazm, Farajollah; Azimirad, Vahid; Shoaran, Maryam

2018-04-01

Objective. Considering the importance and the near-future development of noninvasive brain-machine interface (BMI) systems, this paper presents a comprehensive theoretical-experimental survey on the classification and evolutionary methods for BMI-based systems in which EEG signals are used. Approach. The paper is divided into two main parts. In the first part, a wide range of different types of the base and combinatorial classifiers including boosting and bagging classifiers and evolutionary algorithms are reviewed and investigated. In the second part, these classifiers and evolutionary algorithms are assessed and compared based on two types of relatively widely used BMI systems, sensory motor rhythm-BMI and event-related potentials-BMI. Moreover, in the second part, some of the improved evolutionary algorithms as well as bi-objective algorithms are experimentally assessed and compared. Main results. In this study two databases are used, and cross-validation accuracy (CVA) and stability to data volume (SDV) are considered as the evaluation criteria for the classifiers. According to the experimental results on both databases, regarding the base classifiers, linear discriminant analysis and support vector machines with respect to CVA evaluation metric, and naive Bayes with respect to SDV demonstrated the best performances. Among the combinatorial classifiers, four classifiers, Bagg-DT (bagging decision tree), LogitBoost, and GentleBoost with respect to CVA, and Bagging-LR (bagging logistic regression) and AdaBoost (adaptive boosting) with respect to SDV had the best performances. Finally, regarding the evolutionary algorithms, single-objective invasive weed optimization (IWO) and bi-objective nondominated sorting IWO algorithms demonstrated the best performances. Significance. We present a general survey on the base and the combinatorial classification methods for EEG signals (sensory motor rhythm and event-related potentials) as well as their optimization methods

12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

2018-02-01

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

Science.gov (United States)

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Bayesian policy reuse

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rosman, Benjamin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

2014-01-01

The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Safety, efficacy, and biomarkers of nivolumab with vaccine in ipilimumab-refractory or -naive melanoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Jeffrey S; Kudchadkar, Ragini Reiney; Yu, Bin; Gallenstein, Donna; Horak, Christine E; Inzunza, H David; Zhao, Xiuhua; Martinez, Alberto J; Wang, Wenshi; Gibney, Geoffrey; Kroeger, Jodi; Eysmans, Cabell; Sarnaik, Amod A; Chen, Y Ann

2013-12-01

Nivolumab, a human immunoglobulin G4-blocking antibody against the T-cell programmed death-1 checkpoint protein, has activity against metastatic melanoma. Its safety, clinical efficacy, and correlative biomarkers were assessed with or without a peptide vaccine in ipilimumab-refractory and -naive melanoma. In this phase I study, 90 patients with unresectable stage III or IV melanoma who were ipilimumab naive and had experienced progression after at least one prior therapy (cohorts 1 to 3, 34 patients) or experienced progression after prior ipilimumab (cohorts 4 to 6, 56 patients) received nivolumab at 1, 3, or 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks for 24 weeks, then every 12 weeks for up to 2 years, with or without a multipeptide vaccine. Nivolumab with vaccine was well tolerated and safe at all doses. The RECIST 1.1 response rate for both ipilimumab-refractory and -naive patients was 25%. Median duration of response was not reached at a median of 8.1 months of follow-up. High pretreatment NY-ESO-1 and MART-1-specific CD8(+) T cells were associated with progression of disease. At week 12, increased peripheral-blood T regulatory cells and decreased antigen-specific T cells were associated with progression. PD-L1 tumor staining was associated with responses to nivolumab, but negative staining did not rule out a response. Patients who experienced progression after nivolumab could respond to ipilimumab. In patients with ipilimumab-refractory or -naive melanoma, nivolumab at 3 mg/kg with or without peptide vaccine was well tolerated and induced responses lasting up to 140 weeks. Responses to nivolumab in ipilimumab-refractory patients or to ipilimumab in nivolumab-refractory patients support combination or sequencing of nivolumab and ipilimumab.

The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

2014-01-01

Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caspar Mathias Goeke

2016-10-01

Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Margaritis, Dimitris

1999-01-01

.... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

A Bayesian encourages dropout

OpenAIRE

Maeda, Shin-ichi

2014-01-01

Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

Detecting tweet-based sentiment polarity of plastic surgery treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jokhio, M.; Mahoto, N.A.

2015-01-01

Sentiment analysis is a growing research these days. Many companies perform this analysis on public opinions to get a general idea about any product or service. This paper presents a novel approach to get views or comments of Twitter users about plastic surgery treatments. The proposed approach uses machine-learning technique embedded with the naive Bayesian classifier to assign polarities (i.e. positive, negative or neutral) to the tweets, collected from Twitter micro-blogging website. The accuracy of the obtained results has been validated using precision, recall and F-score measures. It has been observed from 25000 tweets dataset that people tend to have positive as well as substantial negative opinions regarding particular treatments. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. (author)

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Development of Metabolic Syndrome in Drug-Naive Adolescents After 12 Months of Second-Generation Antipsychotic Treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sjo, Christina Power; Stenstrøm, Anne Dorte; Bojesen, Anders Bo

2017-01-01

if obesity or metabolic aberration starts in childhood or adolescence. METHODS: Drug-naive adolescents were recruited after contact with an outpatient Psychosis Team. Changes relative to baseline in body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), blood pressure (BP), fasting blood glucose (FBG......), triglycerides (TG), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were determined through regular follow-ups. RESULTS: The sample included 35 SGA-naive patients aged 7-19 (mean: 15.5) with a diagnosis of psychosis. Over 12 months, the overall rate of MetS changed significantly (from 0% to 20% [p 

Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

2009-01-01

(domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes......Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

The Effect of Naive Ideas on Students' Reasoning about Electricity and Magnetism

Science.gov (United States)

Leppavirta, Johanna

2012-01-01

Traditional multiple-choice concept inventories measure students' critical conceptual understanding and are designed to reveal students' naive or alternate ideas. The overall scores, however, give little information about the state of students' knowledge and the consistency of reasoning. This study investigates whether students have consistent…

Penerapan Data Mining Algoritma Naives Bayes dan PART Untuk Mengetahui Minat Baca Mahasiswa di Perpustakaan STMIK AMIKOM Purwokerto

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Imron

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Perpustakaan STMIK AMIKOM Purwokerto didirikan dengan tujuan untuk membantu serta memenuhi kebutuhan sivitas akademik yang ada di Perguruan Tinggi, koleksi buku yang ada sekitar 12,518, dengan judul 6,375 eksemplar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui minat baca mahasiswa dengan membandingkan tingkat akurasi pada data mining dengan menggunakan algoritma naive bayes dan PART berdasarkan data peminjaman. Pengambilan data dari bulan Januari 2016 sampai bulan Maret 2017 dengan total data 4022. Hasil pengujian yang telah dilakukan terhadap kedua algoritma yaitu algoritma Naive Bayes dan Algoritma PART, maka dapat disimpulkan dari evaluasi dengan confusion matrix didapat hasil nilai akurasi masing-masing algoritma, nilai akurasi dari algoritma naive bayes sebesar 97,01% dan nilai akurasi dari algoritma PART sebesar 97,19%, sehingga algoritma yang terbaik dari pengujian tersebut untuk mengetahui minat baca mahasiswa di Perpustakaan STMIK AMIKOM Purwokerto adalah algoritma PART.

Using naive Bayes classifier for classification of convective rainfall ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

the rainfall intensity in the convective clouds is evaluated using weather radar over the northern Algeria. The results indicate an ... tropical and extratropical regions, are dominated .... MSG is a new series of European geostationary satellites ...

Bayesian Utilitarianism

OpenAIRE

ZHOU, Lin

1996-01-01

In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

2009-01-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly

Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

Science.gov (United States)

Caudle, Kyle

2010-01-01

In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abad-Grau María M

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

Science.gov (United States)

Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

2018-04-01

Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Classification of Focal and Non Focal Epileptic Seizures Using Multi-Features and SVM Classifier.

Science.gov (United States)

Sriraam, N; Raghu, S

2017-09-02

Identifying epileptogenic zones prior to surgery is an essential and crucial step in treating patients having pharmacoresistant focal epilepsy. Electroencephalogram (EEG) is a significant measurement benchmark to assess patients suffering from epilepsy. This paper investigates the application of multi-features derived from different domains to recognize the focal and non focal epileptic seizures obtained from pharmacoresistant focal epilepsy patients from Bern Barcelona database. From the dataset, five different classification tasks were formed. Total 26 features were extracted from focal and non focal EEG. Significant features were selected using Wilcoxon rank sum test by setting p-value (p z > 1.96) at 95% significance interval. Hypothesis was made that the effect of removing outliers improves the classification accuracy. Turkey's range test was adopted for pruning outliers from feature set. Finally, 21 features were classified using optimized support vector machine (SVM) classifier with 10-fold cross validation. Bayesian optimization technique was adopted to minimize the cross-validation loss. From the simulation results, it was inferred that the highest sensitivity, specificity, and classification accuracy of 94.56%, 89.74%, and 92.15% achieved respectively and found to be better than the state-of-the-art approaches. Further, it was observed that the classification accuracy improved from 80.2% with outliers to 92.15% without outliers. The classifier performance metrics ensures the suitability of the proposed multi-features with optimized SVM classifier. It can be concluded that the proposed approach can be applied for recognition of focal EEG signals to localize epileptogenic zones.

Classifying Microorganisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sommerlund, Julie

2006-01-01

This paper describes the coexistence of two systems for classifying organisms and species: a dominant genetic system and an older naturalist system. The former classifies species and traces their evolution on the basis of genetic characteristics, while the latter employs physiological characteris......This paper describes the coexistence of two systems for classifying organisms and species: a dominant genetic system and an older naturalist system. The former classifies species and traces their evolution on the basis of genetic characteristics, while the latter employs physiological...... characteristics. The coexistence of the classification systems does not lead to a conflict between them. Rather, the systems seem to co-exist in different configurations, through which they are complementary, contradictory and inclusive in different situations-sometimes simultaneously. The systems come...

Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2009-02-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The differentiation of malignant and benign human breast tissue at surgical margins and biopsy using x-ray interaction data and Bayesian classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mersov, A.; Mersov, G.; Al-Ebraheem, A.; Cornacchi, S.; Gohla, G.; Lovrics, P.; Farquharson, M.J.

2014-01-01

Worldwide, about 1.3 million women are diagnosed with breast cancer annually with an estimated 465,000 deaths. Accordingly, there is a need for high accuracy and speed in diagnosis of lesions suspected of being cancerous. This study assesses the interaction data collected from low energy x-rays within breast tissue samples. Trace element concentrations are assessed using x-ray fluorescence, as well as electron density, and molecular structure which are examined using incoherent and coherent scatter, respectively. Our work to date has shown that such data can provide a quantitative measure of certain tissue characterising parameters and hence, through appropriate modelling, could be used to classify samples for uses such as surgical margin detection and biopsy examination. The parameters used in this study for comparing the normal and tumour tissue sample populations are: levels of elements Ca, Cu, Fe, Br, Zn, Rb, K; the area, FWHM and amplitude from peaks fitted to the coherent scatter profile that are associated with fat, fibre and water content; the ratio of the Compton and coherent scatter peak area, FWHM and amplitude from the incoherent scatter profile. The novelty of the approach to this work lies in the fact that the classification process does not rely on one source of data but combines several measurements, the data from which in this application are modelled using a method based on Bayesian classification. The reliability of the classifications was assessed by its application to diagnostically known data that was not itself included in the thresholds determination. The results of the classification of over 70 breast tissue samples will be presented in this study. Bayesian modelling was carried out using selected significant parameters for classification resulting in 71% of normal tissue samples (n=35) and 66% of tumour tissue samples (n=35) being correctly classified when using all the samples. Bayesian classification using the same variables on all

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

2012-01-01

This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA

Sleep quality and OPRM1 polymorphisms: a cross-sectional study among opioid-naive individuals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zalina Zahari

2018-06-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Opioidergic system involves in regulation of sleep and wakefulness. It is possible, therefore, that genetic polymorphisms in OPRM1 influence sleep quality. This study investigated the association of OPRM1 polymorphisms with subjective sleep quality among opioid-naive individuals. This cross-sectional observational study involved 161 opioid-naive males (mean age = 27.74 years; range: 18−63 years. Subjective sleep quality was assessed with the translated and validated Malay version of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI. DNA was extracted from whole blood and subjected to polymerase chain reaction (PCR-genotyping for two OPRM1 polymorphisms (118A>G and IVS2+691G>C. Subjects with combined 118A and IVS2+691G alleles (AC haplotype had significantly lower PSQI scores [mean (SD = 4.29 (1.76] compared to those without the haplotype [4.99 (2.50] (p = 0.004. On the other hand, subjects with combined heterozygous genotype (GC/AG diplotype had significantly higher PSQI scores compared to those without the diplotype [6.04 (2.48 vs 4.54 (2.22, p = 0.004]. In opioid-naive individuals, AC haplotype and GC/AG diplotype for the 118A>G and IVS2+691G>C polymorphisms of OPRM1 are associated with better and poorer sleep quality, respectively.

Bayesian Networks An Introduction

CERN Document Server

Koski, Timo

2009-01-01

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

Nicotinic Acid Adenine Dinucleotide Phosphate Plays a Critical Role in Naive and Effector Murine T Cells but Not Natural Regulatory T Cells*

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Ramadan A.; Camick, Christina; Wiles, Katherine; Walseth, Timothy F.; Slama, James T.; Bhattacharya, Sumit; Giovannucci, David R.; Wall, Katherine A.

2016-01-01

Nicotinic acid adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NAADP), the most potent Ca2+ mobilizing second messenger discovered to date, has been implicated in Ca2+ signaling in some lymphomas and T cell clones. In contrast, the role of NAADP in Ca2+ signaling or the identity of the Ca2+ stores targeted by NAADP in conventional naive T cells is less clear. In the current study, we demonstrate the importance of NAADP in the generation of Ca2+ signals in murine naive T cells. Combining live-cell imaging methods and a pharmacological approach using the NAADP antagonist Ned-19, we addressed the involvement of NAADP in the generation of Ca2+ signals evoked by TCR stimulation and the role of this signal in downstream physiological end points such as proliferation, cytokine production, and other responses to stimulation. We demonstrated that acidic compartments in addition to the endoplasmic reticulum were the Ca2+ stores that were sensitive to NAADP in naive T cells. NAADP was shown to evoke functionally relevant Ca2+ signals in both naive CD4 and naive CD8 T cells. Furthermore, we examined the role of this signal in the activation, proliferation, and secretion of effector cytokines by Th1, Th2, Th17, and CD8 effector T cells. Overall, NAADP exhibited a similar profile in mediating Ca2+ release in effector T cells as in their counterpart naive T cells and seemed to be equally important for the function of these different subsets of effector T cells. This profile was not observed for natural T regulatory cells. PMID:26728458

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

Interleukin-7 induces HIV replication in primary naive T cells through a nuclear factor of activated T cell (NFAT)-dependent pathway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Managlia, Elizabeth Z.; Landay, Alan; Al-Harthi, Lena

2006-01-01

Interleukin (IL)-7 plays several roles critical to T cell maturation, survival, and homeostasis. Because of these functions, IL-7 is under investigation as an immune-modulator for therapeutic use in lymphopenic clinical conditions, including HIV. We reported that naive T cells, typically not permissive to HIV, can be productively infected when pre-treated with IL-7. We evaluated the mechanism by which IL-7-mediates this effect. IL-7 potently up-regulated the transcriptional factor NFAT, but had no effect on NFκB. Blocking NFAT activity using a number of reagents, such as Cyclosporin A, FK-506, or the NFAT-specific inhibitor known as VIVIT peptide, all markedly reduced IL-7-mediated induction of HIV replication in naive T cells. Additional neutralization of cytokines present in IL-7-treated cultures and/or those that have NFAT-binding sequences within their promotors indicated that IL-10, IL-4, and most significantly IFNγ, all contribute to IL-7-induction of HIV productive replication in naive T cells. These data clarify the mechanism by which IL-7 can overcome the block to HIV productive infection in naive T cells, despite their quiescent cell status. These findings are relevant to the treatment of HIV disease and understanding HIV pathogenesis in the naive CD4+ T cell compartment, especially in light of the vigorous pursuit of IL-7 as an in vivo immune modulator

A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belkheir Essebbar

2004-02-01

Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

Speaker Prediction based on Head Orientations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rienks, R.J.; Poppe, Ronald Walter; van Otterlo, M.; Poel, Mannes; Poel, M.; Nijholt, A.; Nijholt, Antinus

2005-01-01

To gain insight into gaze behavior in meetings, this paper compares the results from a Naive Bayes classifier, Neural Networks and humans on speaker prediction in four-person meetings given solely the azimuth head angles. The Naive Bayes classifier scored 69.4% correctly, Neural Networks 62.3% and

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

Magnetic resonance imaging-guided biopsies may improve diagnosis in biopsy-naive men with suspicion of prostate cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winther, Mads Dochedahl; Balslev, Ingegerd; Boesen, Lars

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this pilot study was to investigate whether a short prostate biparametric magnetic resonance imaging (bp-MRI) protocol provides a valuable diagnostic addition for biopsy guidance in biopsy-naive men with a suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS: A total of 62...... biopsy-naive patients referred to a systematic transrectal ultrasound biopsy (TRUS-bx) due to suspicion of PCa were prospectively enrolled. Bp-MRI was performed before biopsy. All lesions were scored according to the modified Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) version 2. All patients...

Bayesian theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

2013-01-01

The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

A Gaussian mixture model based adaptive classifier for fNIRS brain-computer interfaces and its testing via simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zheng; Jiang, Yi-han; Duan, Lian; Zhu, Chao-zhe

2017-08-01

Objective. Functional near infra-red spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a promising brain imaging technology for brain-computer interfaces (BCI). Future clinical uses of fNIRS will likely require operation over long time spans, during which neural activation patterns may change. However, current decoders for fNIRS signals are not designed to handle changing activation patterns. The objective of this study is to test via simulations a new adaptive decoder for fNIRS signals, the Gaussian mixture model adaptive classifier (GMMAC). Approach. GMMAC can simultaneously classify and track activation pattern changes without the need for ground-truth labels. This adaptive classifier uses computationally efficient variational Bayesian inference to label new data points and update mixture model parameters, using the previous model parameters as priors. We test GMMAC in simulations in which neural activation patterns change over time and compare to static decoders and unsupervised adaptive linear discriminant analysis classifiers. Main results. Our simulation experiments show GMMAC can accurately decode under time-varying activation patterns: shifts of activation region, expansions of activation region, and combined contractions and shifts of activation region. Furthermore, the experiments show the proposed method can track the changing shape of the activation region. Compared to prior work, GMMAC performed significantly better than the other unsupervised adaptive classifiers on a difficult activation pattern change simulation: 99% versus  brain-computer interfaces, including neurofeedback training systems, where operation over long time spans is required.

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

CERN Document Server

Riggelsen, C

2008-01-01

This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

Bayesian community detection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

2012-01-01

Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.

2016-02-13

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver

2016-01-01

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Personality matters: individual variation in reactions of naive bird predators to aposematic prey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Exnerová, A.; Hotova Svadova, K.; Fucikova, E.; Drent, P.; Stys, P.

2010-01-01

Variation in reactions to aposematic prey is common among conspecific individuals of bird predators. It may result from different individual experience but it also exists among naive birds. This variation may possibly be explained by the effect of personality—a complex of correlated, heritable

Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

2018-01-01

An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

Nicotinic Acid Adenine Dinucleotide Phosphate Plays a Critical Role in Naive and Effector Murine T Cells but Not Natural Regulatory T Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Ramadan A; Camick, Christina; Wiles, Katherine; Walseth, Timothy F; Slama, James T; Bhattacharya, Sumit; Giovannucci, David R; Wall, Katherine A

2016-02-26

Nicotinic acid adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NAADP), the most potent Ca(2+) mobilizing second messenger discovered to date, has been implicated in Ca(2+) signaling in some lymphomas and T cell clones. In contrast, the role of NAADP in Ca(2+) signaling or the identity of the Ca(2+) stores targeted by NAADP in conventional naive T cells is less clear. In the current study, we demonstrate the importance of NAADP in the generation of Ca(2+) signals in murine naive T cells. Combining live-cell imaging methods and a pharmacological approach using the NAADP antagonist Ned-19, we addressed the involvement of NAADP in the generation of Ca(2+) signals evoked by TCR stimulation and the role of this signal in downstream physiological end points such as proliferation, cytokine production, and other responses to stimulation. We demonstrated that acidic compartments in addition to the endoplasmic reticulum were the Ca(2+) stores that were sensitive to NAADP in naive T cells. NAADP was shown to evoke functionally relevant Ca(2+) signals in both naive CD4 and naive CD8 T cells. Furthermore, we examined the role of this signal in the activation, proliferation, and secretion of effector cytokines by Th1, Th2, Th17, and CD8 effector T cells. Overall, NAADP exhibited a similar profile in mediating Ca(2+) release in effector T cells as in their counterpart naive T cells and seemed to be equally important for the function of these different subsets of effector T cells. This profile was not observed for natural T regulatory cells. © 2016 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Universal Darwinism as a process of Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Oberon Campbell

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes’ Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians. As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an ‘experiment’ in the external world environment, and the results of that 'experiment' or the 'surprise' entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the ‘experiment’. Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of 'surprise' experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.

2003-01-01

We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data

Semi-Supervised Bayesian Classification of Materials with Impact-Echo Signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Igual

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The detection and identification of internal defects in a material require the use of some technology that translates the hidden interior damages into observable signals with different signature-defect correspondences. We apply impact-echo techniques for this purpose. The materials are classified according to their defective status (homogeneous, one defect or multiple defects and kind of defect (hole or crack, passing through or not. Every specimen is impacted by a hammer, and the spectrum of the propagated wave is recorded. This spectrum is the input data to a Bayesian classifier that is based on the modeling of the conditional probabilities with a mixture of Gaussians. The parameters of the Gaussian mixtures and the class probabilities are estimated using an extended expectation-maximization algorithm. The advantage of our proposal is that it is flexible, since it obtains good results for a wide range of models even under little supervision; e.g., it obtains a harmonic average of precision and recall value of 92.38% given only a 10% supervision ratio. We test the method with real specimens made of aluminum alloy. The results show that the algorithm works very well. This technique could be applied in many industrial problems, such as the optimization of the marble cutting process.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

Science.gov (United States)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Mo

2011-01-01

In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

Data Mining Aplications in Livestock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feyza ALEV ÇETİN

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Data mining provides discovering the required and applicable knowledge from very large amounts of information collected in one centre. Data mining has been used in the information industry and society. Although many methods of data mining has been used, these techniques has been remarkable in animal husbandry in recent years. For the solution of complex problems in animal husbandry many methods were discussed and developed. Brief information on data mining techniques such as k-means approach, k-nearest neighbor approach, multivariate adaptive regression function (MARS, naive Bayesian classifiers (NBC, artificial neural networks (ANN, support vector machines (SVM, decision trees are given in the study. Some data mining methods are presented and examples of the application of data mining in the field of animal husbandry in the world are provided with this study.

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1986-01-01

This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)

Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liangdong Hu

Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

CERN Document Server

Hobbs, N Thompson

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

A Combined Omics Approach to Generate the Surface Atlas of Human Naive CD4+ T Cells during Early T-Cell Receptor Activation.

Science.gov (United States)

Graessel, Anke; Hauck, Stefanie M; von Toerne, Christine; Kloppmann, Edda; Goldberg, Tatyana; Koppensteiner, Herwig; Schindler, Michael; Knapp, Bettina; Krause, Linda; Dietz, Katharina; Schmidt-Weber, Carsten B; Suttner, Kathrin

2015-08-01

Naive CD4(+) T cells are the common precursors of multiple effector and memory T-cell subsets and possess a high plasticity in terms of differentiation potential. This stem-cell-like character is important for cell therapies aiming at regeneration of specific immunity. Cell surface proteins are crucial for recognition and response to signals mediated by other cells or environmental changes. Knowledge of cell surface proteins of human naive CD4(+) T cells and their changes during the early phase of T-cell activation is urgently needed for a guided differentiation of naive T cells and may support the selection of pluripotent cells for cell therapy. Periodate oxidation and aniline-catalyzed oxime ligation technology was applied with subsequent quantitative liquid chromatography-tandem MS to generate a data set describing the surface proteome of primary human naive CD4(+) T cells and to monitor dynamic changes during the early phase of activation. This led to the identification of 173 N-glycosylated surface proteins. To independently confirm the proteomic data set and to analyze the cell surface by an alternative technique a systematic phenotypic expression analysis of surface antigens via flow cytometry was performed. This screening expanded the previous data set, resulting in 229 surface proteins, which were expressed on naive unstimulated and activated CD4(+) T cells. Furthermore, we generated a surface expression atlas based on transcriptome data, experimental annotation, and predicted subcellular localization, and correlated the proteomics result with this transcriptional data set. This extensive surface atlas provides an overall naive CD4(+) T cell surface resource and will enable future studies aiming at a deeper understanding of mechanisms of T-cell biology allowing the identification of novel immune targets usable for the development of therapeutic treatments. © 2015 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham

2008-01-01

We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

2016-11-01

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

Generating prior probabilities for classifiers of brain tumours using belief networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arvanitis Theodoros N

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous methods for classifying brain tumours based on magnetic resonance spectra and imaging have been presented in the last 15 years. Generally, these methods use supervised machine learning to develop a classifier from a database of cases for which the diagnosis is already known. However, little has been published on developing classifiers based on mixed modalities, e.g. combining imaging information with spectroscopy. In this work a method of generating probabilities of tumour class from anatomical location is presented. Methods The method of "belief networks" is introduced as a means of generating probabilities that a tumour is any given type. The belief networks are constructed using a database of paediatric tumour cases consisting of data collected over five decades; the problems associated with using this data are discussed. To verify the usefulness of the networks, an application of the method is presented in which prior probabilities were generated and combined with a classification of tumours based solely on MRS data. Results Belief networks were constructed from a database of over 1300 cases. These can be used to generate a probability that a tumour is any given type. Networks are presented for astrocytoma grades I and II, astrocytoma grades III and IV, ependymoma, pineoblastoma, primitive neuroectodermal tumour (PNET, germinoma, medulloblastoma, craniopharyngioma and a group representing rare tumours, "other". Using the network to generate prior probabilities for classification improves the accuracy when compared with generating prior probabilities based on class prevalence. Conclusion Bayesian belief networks are a simple way of using discrete clinical information to generate probabilities usable in classification. The belief network method can be robust to incomplete datasets. Inclusion of a priori knowledge is an effective way of improving classification of brain tumours by non-invasive methods.

Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

2008-01-01

The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

DeNASA: Destination-Naive AS-Awareness in Anonymous Communications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barton Armon

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Prior approaches to AS-aware path selection in Tor do not consider node bandwidth or the other characteristics that Tor uses to ensure load balancing and quality of service. Further, since the AS path from the client’s exit to her destination can only be inferred once the destination is known, the prior approaches may have problems constructing circuits in advance, which is important for Tor performance. In this paper, we propose and evaluate DeNASA, a new approach to AS-aware path selection that is destination-naive, in that it does not need to know the client’s destination to pick paths, and that takes advantage of Tor’s circuit selection algorithm. To this end, we first identify the most probable ASes to be traversed by Tor streams. We call this set of ASes the Suspect AS list and find that it consists of eight highest ranking Tier 1 ASes. Then, we test the accuracy of Qiu and Gao AS-level path inference on identifying the presence of these ASes in the path, and we show that inference accuracy is 90%. We develop an AS-aware algorithm called DeNASA that uses Qiu and Gao inference to avoid Suspect ASes. DeNASA reduces Tor stream vulnerability by 74%. We also show that DeNASA has performance similar to Tor. Due to the destination-naive property, time to first byte (TTFB is close to Tor’s, and due to leveraging Tor’s bandwidth-weighted relay selection, time to last byte (TTLB is also similar to Tor’s.

Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

OpenAIRE

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

2006-01-01

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

 Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

2004-01-01

We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Science.gov (United States)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function

Efficacy of tofacitinib monotherapy in methotrexate-naive patients with early or established rheumatoid arthritis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fleischmann, Roy M.; Huizinga, Tom W. J.; Kavanaugh, Arthur F.; Wilkinson, Bethanie; Kwok, Kenneth; DeMasi, Ryan; van Vollenhoven, Ronald F.

2016-01-01

Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Tofacitinib monotherapy was previously shown to inhibit structural damage, reduce clinical signs and symptoms of RA, and improve physical functioning over 24 months in methotrexate (MTX)-naive adult

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan Guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

SUVI Thematic Maps: A new tool for space weather forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, J. M.; Seaton, D. B.; Darnel, J.

2017-12-01

The new Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) instruments aboard NOAA's GOES-R series satellites collect continuous, high-quality imagery of the Sun in six wavelengths. SUVI imagers produce at least one image every 10 seconds, or 8,640 images per day, considerably more data than observers can digest in real time. Over the projected 20-year lifetime of the four GOES-R series spacecraft, SUVI will provide critical imagery for space weather forecasters and produce an extensive but unwieldy archive. In order to condense the database into a dynamic and searchable form we have developed solar thematic maps, maps of the Sun with key features, such as coronal holes, flares, bright regions, quiet corona, and filaments, identified. Thematic maps will be used in NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center to improve forecaster response time to solar events and generate several derivative products. Likewise, scientists use thematic maps to find observations of interest more easily. Using an expert-trained, naive Bayesian classifier to label each pixel, we create thematic maps in real-time. We created software to collect expert classifications of solar features based on SUVI images. Using this software, we compiled a database of expert classifications, from which we could characterize the distribution of pixels associated with each theme. Given new images, the classifier assigns each pixel the most appropriate label according to the trained distribution. Here we describe the software to collect expert training and the successes and limitations of the classifier. The algorithm excellently identifies coronal holes but fails to consistently detect filaments and prominences. We compare the Bayesian classifier to an artificial neural network, one of our attempts to overcome the aforementioned limitations. These results are very promising and encourage future research into an ensemble classification approach.

Prevalence of Dyslipidemia Among Antiretroviral-Naive HIV-Infected Individuals in China

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Yinzhong; Wang, Jiangrong; Wang, Zhenyan; Qi, Tangkai; Song, Wei; Tang, Yang; Liu, Li; Zhang, Renfang; Lu, Hongzhou

2015-01-01

Abstract Little is known about the epidemiological features of dyslipidemia among antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected individuals in China. We used a cross-sectional study design to estimate the prevalence of dyslipidemia in this population, and to identify risk factors associated with the presence of dyslipidemia. One thousand five hundred and eighteen antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected individuals and 347 HIV-negative subjects in China were enrolled during 2009 to 2010. Demographics and medical histories were recorded. After an overnight fast, serum samples were collected to measure lipid levels. Factors associated with the presence of dyslipidemia were analyzed by logistic regression. Mean total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) levels were lower in HIV-positive than HIV-negative subjects, but mean triglyceride (TG) was higher in HIV-positive subjects. The overall prevalence of dyslipidemia in HIV-positive and HIV-negative groups did not differ (75.6% vs. 73.7%, P = 0.580). However, the prevalence of high TC (8.4% vs. 28.2%, P dyslipidemia characterized by high TG and low HDL, which was associated with lower CD4 counts. These data support the assessment of lipid profiles before and after initiation of antiretroviral therapy regardless of age. PMID:26632908

Using an Integrated Naive Bayes Calssifier for Crawling Relevent Data on the Web

Science.gov (United States)

Mihsra, A.

2015-12-01

In our experiments (at JPL, NASA) for DARPA Memex project, we wanted to crawl a large amount of data for various domains. A big challenge was data relevancy in the crawled data. More than 50% of the data was irrelevant to the domain at hand. One immediate solution was to use good seeds (seeds are the initial urls from where the program starts to crawl) and make sure that the crawl remains into the original host urls. This although a very efficient technique, fails under two conditions. One when you aim to reach deeper into the web; into new hosts (not in the seed list) and two when the website hosts myriad content types eg. a News website.The relevancy calculation used to be a post processing step i.e. once we had finished crawling, we trained a NaiveBayes Classifier and used it to find a rough relevancy of the web pages that we had. Integrating the relevancy into the crawling rather than after it was very important because crawling takes resources and time. To save both we needed to get an idea of relevancy of the whole crawl during run time and be able to steer its course accordingly. We use Apache Nutch as the crawler, which uses a plugin system to incorporate any new implementations and hence we built a plugin for Nutch.The Naive Bayes Parse Plugin works in the following way. It parses every page and decides, using a trained model (which is built in situ only once using the positive and negative examples given by the user in a very simple format), if it is relevant; If true, then it allows all the outlinks from that page to go to the next round of crawling; If not, then it gives the urls a second chance to prove themselves by checking some commonly expected words in the url relevant to that domain. This two tier system is very intuitive and efficient in focusing the crawl. In our initial test experiments over 100 seed urls, the results were astonishingly good with a recall of 98%.The same technique can be applied to geo-informatics. This will help scientists

Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.

2016-01-01

We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

2006-01-01

We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

Using Bayesian statistics for modeling PTSD through Latent Growth Mixture Modeling: implementation and discussion

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Sarah Depaoli

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background: After traumatic events, such as disaster, war trauma, and injuries including burns (which is the focus here, the risk to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD is approximately 10% (Breslau & Davis, 1992. Latent Growth Mixture Modeling can be used to classify individuals into distinct groups exhibiting different patterns of PTSD (Galatzer-Levy, 2015. Currently, empirical evidence points to four distinct trajectories of PTSD patterns in those who have experienced burn trauma. These trajectories are labeled as: resilient, recovery, chronic, and delayed onset trajectories (e.g., Bonanno, 2004; Bonanno, Brewin, Kaniasty, & Greca, 2010; Maercker, Gäbler, O'Neil, Schützwohl, & Müller, 2013; Pietrzak et al., 2013. The delayed onset trajectory affects only a small group of individuals, that is, about 4–5% (O'Donnell, Elliott, Lau, & Creamer, 2007. In addition to its low frequency, the later onset of this trajectory may contribute to the fact that these individuals can be easily overlooked by professionals. In this special symposium on Estimating PTSD trajectories (Van de Schoot, 2015a, we illustrate how to properly identify this small group of individuals through the Bayesian estimation framework using previous knowledge through priors (see, e.g., Depaoli & Boyajian, 2014; Van de Schoot, Broere, Perryck, Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, & Van Loey, 2015. Method: We used latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM (Van de Schoot, 2015b to estimate PTSD trajectories across 4 years that followed a traumatic burn. We demonstrate and compare results from traditional (maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation using priors (see, Depaoli, 2012, 2013. Further, we discuss where priors come from and how to define them in the estimation process. Results: We demonstrate that only the Bayesian approach results in the desired theory-driven solution of PTSD trajectories. Since the priors are chosen subjectively, we also present a sensitivity analysis of the

A Bayesian Justification for Random Sampling in Sample Survey

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Glen Meeden

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In the usual Bayesian approach to survey sampling the sampling design, plays a minimal role, at best. Although a close relationship between exchangeable prior distributions and simple random sampling has been noted; how to formally integrate simple random sampling into the Bayesian paradigm is not clear. Recently it has been argued that the sampling design can be thought of as part of a Bayesian's prior distribution. We will show here that under this scenario simple random sample can be given a Bayesian justification in survey sampling.

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

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Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

Anterior Cingulate Volumetric Alterations in Treatment-Naive Adults with ADHD: A Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Makris, Nikos; Seidman, Larry J.; Valera, Eve M.; Biederman, Joseph; Monuteaux, Michael C.; Kennedy, David N.; Caviness, Verne S., Jr.; Bush, George; Crum, Katherine; Brown, Ariel B.; Faraone, Stephen V.

2010-01-01

Objective: We sought to examine preliminary results of brain alterations in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in treatment-naive adults with ADHD. The ACC is a central brain node for the integration of cognitive control and allocation of attention, affect and drive. Thus its anatomical alteration may give rise to impulsivity, hyperactivity and…

Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

Passive Sonar Target Detection Using Statistical Classifier and Adaptive Threshold

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Hamed Komari Alaie

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation about target detecting with passive sonar in Persian Gulf. Detecting propagated sounds in the water is one of the basic challenges of the researchers in sonar field. This challenge will be complex in shallow water (like Persian Gulf and noise less vessels. Generally, in passive sonar, the targets are detected by sonar equation (with constant threshold that increases the detection error in shallow water. The purpose of this study is proposed a new method for detecting targets in passive sonars using adaptive threshold. In this method, target signal (sound is processed in time and frequency domain. For classifying, Bayesian classification is used and posterior distribution is estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm. Finally, target was detected by combining the detection points in both domains using Least Mean Square (LMS adaptive filter. Results of this paper has showed that the proposed method has improved true detection rate by about 24% when compared other the best detection method.

Chinese Sentence Classification Based on Convolutional Neural Network

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Gu, Chengwei; Wu, Ming; Zhang, Chuang

2017-10-01

Sentence classification is one of the significant issues in Natural Language Processing (NLP). Feature extraction is often regarded as the key point for natural language processing. Traditional ways based on machine learning can not take high level features into consideration, such as Naive Bayesian Model. The neural network for sentence classification can make use of contextual information to achieve greater results in sentence classification tasks. In this paper, we focus on classifying Chinese sentences. And the most important is that we post a novel architecture of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to apply on Chinese sentence classification. In particular, most of the previous methods often use softmax classifier for prediction, we embed a linear support vector machine to substitute softmax in the deep neural network model, minimizing a margin-based loss to get a better result. And we use tanh as an activation function, instead of ReLU. The CNN model improve the result of Chinese sentence classification tasks. Experimental results on the Chinese news title database validate the effectiveness of our model.

Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Roy

2016-01-01

In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle

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Jon Williamson

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.

Probability biases as Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre; C. R. Martins

2006-11-01

Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

Bayesian data fusion for spatial prediction of categorical variables in environmental sciences

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Gengler, Sarah; Bogaert, Patrick

2014-12-01

First developed to predict continuous variables, Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) has become a complete framework in the context of space-time prediction since it has been extended to predict categorical variables and mixed random fields. This method proposes solutions to combine several sources of data whatever the nature of the information. However, the various attempts that were made for adapting the BME methodology to categorical variables and mixed random fields faced some limitations, as a high computational burden. The main objective of this paper is to overcome this limitation by generalizing the Bayesian Data Fusion (BDF) theoretical framework to categorical variables, which is somehow a simplification of the BME method through the convenient conditional independence hypothesis. The BDF methodology for categorical variables is first described and then applied to a practical case study: the estimation of soil drainage classes using a soil map and point observations in the sandy area of Flanders around the city of Mechelen (Belgium). The BDF approach is compared to BME along with more classical approaches, as Indicator CoKringing (ICK) and logistic regression. Estimators are compared using various indicators, namely the Percentage of Correctly Classified locations (PCC) and the Average Highest Probability (AHP). Although BDF methodology for categorical variables is somehow a simplification of BME approach, both methods lead to similar results and have strong advantages compared to ICK and logistic regression.

Bayesian data fusion for spatial prediction of categorical variables in environmental sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gengler, Sarah; Bogaert, Patrick

2014-01-01

First developed to predict continuous variables, Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) has become a complete framework in the context of space-time prediction since it has been extended to predict categorical variables and mixed random fields. This method proposes solutions to combine several sources of data whatever the nature of the information. However, the various attempts that were made for adapting the BME methodology to categorical variables and mixed random fields faced some limitations, as a high computational burden. The main objective of this paper is to overcome this limitation by generalizing the Bayesian Data Fusion (BDF) theoretical framework to categorical variables, which is somehow a simplification of the BME method through the convenient conditional independence hypothesis. The BDF methodology for categorical variables is first described and then applied to a practical case study: the estimation of soil drainage classes using a soil map and point observations in the sandy area of Flanders around the city of Mechelen (Belgium). The BDF approach is compared to BME along with more classical approaches, as Indicator CoKringing (ICK) and logistic regression. Estimators are compared using various indicators, namely the Percentage of Correctly Classified locations (PCC) and the Average Highest Probability (AHP). Although BDF methodology for categorical variables is somehow a simplification of BME approach, both methods lead to similar results and have strong advantages compared to ICK and logistic regression

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Bayesian psychometric scaling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

2015-01-01

In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item

Learning Bayesian Networks with Incomplete Data by Augmentation

OpenAIRE

Adel, Tameem; de Campos, Cassio P.

2016-01-01

We present new algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from data with missing values using a data augmentation approach. An exact Bayesian network learning algorithm is obtained by recasting the problem into a standard Bayesian network learning problem without missing data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact algorithm for this problem. As expected, the exact algorithm does not scale to large domains. We build on the exact method to create an approximate algorithm using a ...

Multi-Range Conditional Random Field for Classifying Railway Electrification System Objects Using Mobile Laser Scanning Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaewook Jung

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Railways have been used as one of the most crucial means of transportation in public mobility and economic development. For safe railway operation, the electrification system in the railway infrastructure, which supplies electric power to trains, is an essential facility for stable train operation. Due to its important role, the electrification system needs to be rigorously and regularly inspected and managed. This paper presents a supervised learning method to classify Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS data into ten target classes representing overhead wires, movable brackets and poles, which are key objects in the electrification system. In general, the layout of the railway electrification system shows strong spatial regularity relations among object classes. The proposed classifier is developed based on Conditional Random Field (CRF, which characterizes not only labeling homogeneity at short range, but also the layout compatibility between different object classes at long range in the probabilistic graphical model. This multi-range CRF model consists of a unary term and three pairwise contextual terms. In order to gain computational efficiency, MLS point clouds are converted into a set of line segments to which the labeling process is applied. Support Vector Machine (SVM is used as a local classifier considering only node features for producing the unary potentials of the CRF model. As the short-range pairwise contextual term, the Potts model is applied to enforce a local smoothness in the short-range graph; while long-range pairwise potentials are designed to enhance the spatial regularities of both horizontal and vertical layouts among railway objects. We formulate two long-range pairwise potentials as the log posterior probability obtained by the naive Bayes classifier. The directional layout compatibilities are characterized in probability look-up tables, which represent the co-occurrence rate of spatial relations in the horizontal and vertical

Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

2018-01-01

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

2014-01-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

2014-03-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Just-in-time adaptive classifiers-part II: designing the classifier.

Science.gov (United States)

Alippi, Cesare; Roveri, Manuel

2008-12-01

Aging effects, environmental changes, thermal drifts, and soft and hard faults affect physical systems by changing their nature and behavior over time. To cope with a process evolution adaptive solutions must be envisaged to track its dynamics; in this direction, adaptive classifiers are generally designed by assuming the stationary hypothesis for the process generating the data with very few results addressing nonstationary environments. This paper proposes a methodology based on k-nearest neighbor (NN) classifiers for designing adaptive classification systems able to react to changing conditions just-in-time (JIT), i.e., exactly when it is needed. k-NN classifiers have been selected for their computational-free training phase, the possibility to easily estimate the model complexity k and keep under control the computational complexity of the classifier through suitable data reduction mechanisms. A JIT classifier requires a temporal detection of a (possible) process deviation (aspect tackled in a companion paper) followed by an adaptive management of the knowledge base (KB) of the classifier to cope with the process change. The novelty of the proposed approach resides in the general framework supporting the real-time update of the KB of the classification system in response to novel information coming from the process both in stationary conditions (accuracy improvement) and in nonstationary ones (process tracking) and in providing a suitable estimate of k. It is shown that the classification system grants consistency once the change targets the process generating the data in a new stationary state, as it is the case in many real applications.

KLF4 Nuclear Export Requires ERK Activation and Initiates Exit from Naive Pluripotency.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhaliwal, Navroop K; Miri, Kamelia; Davidson, Scott; Tamim El Jarkass, Hala; Mitchell, Jennifer A

2018-04-10

Cooperative action of a transcription factor complex containing OCT4, SOX2, NANOG, and KLF4 maintains the naive pluripotent state; however, less is known about the mechanisms that disrupt this complex, initiating exit from pluripotency. We show that, as embryonic stem cells (ESCs) exit pluripotency, KLF4 protein is exported from the nucleus causing rapid decline in Nanog and Klf4 transcription; as a result, KLF4 is the first pluripotency transcription factor removed from transcription-associated complexes during differentiation. KLF4 nuclear export requires ERK activation, and phosphorylation of KLF4 by ERK initiates interaction of KLF4 with nuclear export factor XPO1, leading to KLF4 export. Mutation of the ERK phosphorylation site in KLF4 (S132) blocks KLF4 nuclear export, the decline in Nanog, Klf4, and Sox2 mRNA, and differentiation. These findings demonstrate that relocalization of KLF4 to the cytoplasm is a critical first step in exit from the naive pluripotent state and initiation of ESC differentiation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

2013-01-01

In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...

Bayesian Statistics: Concepts and Applications in Animal Breeding – A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lsxmikant-Sambhaji Kokate

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Statistics uses two major approaches- conventional (or frequentist and Bayesian approach. Bayesian approach provides a complete paradigm for both statistical inference and decision making under uncertainty. Bayesian methods solve many of the difficulties faced by conventional statistical methods, and extend the applicability of statistical methods. It exploits the use of probabilistic models to formulate scientific problems. To use Bayesian statistics, there is computational difficulty and secondly, Bayesian methods require specifying prior probability distributions. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC methods were applied to overcome the computational difficulty, and interest in Bayesian methods was renewed. In Bayesian statistics, Bayesian structural equation model (SEM is used. It provides a powerful and flexible approach for studying quantitative traits for wide spectrum problems and thus it has no operational difficulties, with the exception of some complex cases. In this method, the problems are solved at ease, and the statisticians feel it comfortable with the particular way of expressing the results and employing the software available to analyze a large variety of problems.

Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Rossi, Peter

2014-01-01

This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2014-01-06

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.; Pojonk, Oliver; Rosic, Bojana V.; Zander, Elmar

2014-01-01

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

Decreased frontal serotonin2A receptor binding in antipsychotic-naive patients with first-episode schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Hans; Erritzoe, David; Andersen, Rune

2010-01-01

, in vivo studies of serotonin(2A) binding report conflicting results, presumably because sample sizes have been small or because schizophrenic patients who were not antipsychotic-naive were included. Furthermore, the relationships between serotonin(2A) binding, psychopathology, and central neurocognitive...

A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

2013-01-01

representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

An approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models for measurement interpretation under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Skataric, Maja; Bose, Sandip; Zeroug, Smaine; Tilke, Peter

2017-02-01

It is not uncommon in the field of non-destructive evaluation that multiple measurements encompassing a variety of modalities are available for analysis and interpretation for determining the underlying states of nature of the materials or parts being tested. Despite and sometimes due to the richness of data, significant challenges arise in the interpretation manifested as ambiguities and inconsistencies due to various uncertain factors in the physical properties (inputs), environment, measurement device properties, human errors, and the measurement data (outputs). Most of these uncertainties cannot be described by any rigorous mathematical means, and modeling of all possibilities is usually infeasible for many real time applications. In this work, we will discuss an approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models (HBGM) for the improved interpretation of complex (multi-dimensional) problems with parametric uncertainties that lack usable physical models. In this setting, the input space of the physical properties is specified through prior distributions based on domain knowledge and expertise, which are represented as Gaussian mixtures to model the various possible scenarios of interest for non-destructive testing applications. Forward models are then used offline to generate the expected distribution of the proposed measurements which are used to train a hierarchical Bayesian network. In Bayesian analysis, all model parameters are treated as random variables, and inference of the parameters is made on the basis of posterior distribution given the observed data. Learned parameters of the posterior distribution obtained after the training can therefore be used to build an efficient classifier for differentiating new observed data in real time on the basis of pre-trained models. We will illustrate the implementation of the HBGM approach to ultrasonic measurements used for cement evaluation of cased wells in the oil industry.

Bayesian Belief Networks for predicting drinking water distribution system pipe breaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francis, Royce A.; Guikema, Seth D.; Henneman, Lucas

2014-01-01

In this paper, we use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to construct a knowledge model for pipe breaks in a water zone. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to model drinking water distribution system pipe breaks using BBNs. Development of expert systems such as BBNs for analyzing drinking water distribution system data is not only important for pipe break prediction, but is also a first step in preventing water loss and water quality deterioration through the application of machine learning techniques to facilitate data-based distribution system monitoring and asset management. Due to the difficulties in collecting, preparing, and managing drinking water distribution system data, most pipe break models can be classified as “statistical–physical” or “hypothesis-generating.” We develop the BBN with the hope of contributing to the “hypothesis-generating” class of models, while demonstrating the possibility that BBNs might also be used as “statistical–physical” models. Our model is learned from pipe breaks and covariate data from a mid-Atlantic United States (U.S.) drinking water distribution system network. BBN models are learned using a constraint-based method, a score-based method, and a hybrid method. Model evaluation is based on log-likelihood scoring. Sensitivity analysis using mutual information criterion is also reported. While our results indicate general agreement with prior results reported in pipe break modeling studies, they also suggest that it may be difficult to select among model alternatives. This model uncertainty may mean that more research is needed for understanding whether additional pipe break risk factors beyond age, break history, pipe material, and pipe diameter might be important for asset management planning. - Highlights: • We show Bayesian Networks for predictive and diagnostic management of water distribution systems. • Our model may enable system operators and managers to prioritize system

A nonparametric Bayesian approach for genetic evaluation in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Journal of Animal Science ... the Bayesian and Classical models, a Bayesian procedure is provided which allows these random ... data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud and data from a simulation experiment are utilized. >

Hybrid classifiers methods of data, knowledge, and classifier combination

CERN Document Server

Wozniak, Michal

2014-01-01

This book delivers a definite and compact knowledge on how hybridization can help improving the quality of computer classification systems. In order to make readers clearly realize the knowledge of hybridization, this book primarily focuses on introducing the different levels of hybridization and illuminating what problems we will face with as dealing with such projects. In the first instance the data and knowledge incorporated in hybridization were the action points, and then a still growing up area of classifier systems known as combined classifiers was considered. This book comprises the aforementioned state-of-the-art topics and the latest research results of the author and his team from Department of Systems and Computer Networks, Wroclaw University of Technology, including as classifier based on feature space splitting, one-class classification, imbalance data, and data stream classification.

Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopec, S.

1994-01-01

Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)

Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

Science.gov (United States)

2016-05-09

inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

In Vitro Measles Virus Infection of Human Lymphocyte Subsets Demonstrates High Susceptibility and Permissiveness of both Naive and Memory B Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Laksono, Brigitta M; Grosserichter-Wagener, Christina; de Vries, Rory D; Langeveld, Simone A G; Brem, Maarten D; van Dongen, Jacques J M; Katsikis, Peter D; Koopmans, Marion P G; van Zelm, Menno C; de Swart, Rik L

2018-04-15

Measles is characterized by a transient immune suppression, leading to an increased risk of opportunistic infections. Measles virus (MV) infection of immune cells is mediated by the cellular receptor CD150, expressed by subsets of lymphocytes, dendritic cells, macrophages, and thymocytes. Previous studies showed that human and nonhuman primate memory T cells express higher levels of CD150 than naive cells and are more susceptible to MV infection. However, limited information is available about the CD150 expression and relative susceptibility to MV infection of B-cell subsets. In this study, we assessed the susceptibility and permissiveness of naive and memory T- and B-cell subsets from human peripheral blood or tonsils to in vitro MV infection. Our study demonstrates that naive and memory B cells express CD150, but at lower frequencies than memory T cells. Nevertheless, both naive and memory B cells proved to be highly permissive to MV infection. Furthermore, we assessed the susceptibility and permissiveness of various functionally distinct T and B cells, such as helper T (T H ) cell subsets and IgG- and IgA-positive memory B cells, in peripheral blood and tonsils. We demonstrated that T H 1T H 17 cells and plasma and germinal center B cells were the subsets most susceptible and permissive to MV infection. Our study suggests that both naive and memory B cells, along with several other antigen-experienced lymphocytes, are important target cells of MV infection. Depletion of these cells potentially contributes to the pathogenesis of measles immune suppression. IMPORTANCE Measles is associated with immune suppression and is often complicated by bacterial pneumonia, otitis media, or gastroenteritis. Measles virus infects antigen-presenting cells and T and B cells, and depletion of these cells may contribute to lymphopenia and immune suppression. Measles has been associated with follicular exhaustion in lymphoid tissues in humans and nonhuman primates, emphasizing the

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasu, L M; Andonie, R

2013-10-01

Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

Science.gov (United States)

J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

2006-01-01

Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

Maraviroc: perspectives for use in antiretroviral-naive HIV-1-infected patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Vandekerckhove, Linos; Verhofstede, Chris; Vogelaers, Dirk

2009-06-01

Maraviroc (Pfizer's UK-427857, Selzentry or Celsentri outside the USA) is the first agent in the new class of oral HIV-1 entry inhibitors to acquire approval by the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicine Agency. Considering the mechanism of action, it is expected that this drug will be effective only in a subpopulation of HIV-1-infected people, namely those harbouring the R5 virus. The favourable toxicity profile of the drug has been demonstrated in Phase III clinical trials in treatment-naive (MERIT) and treatment-experienced (MOTIVATE) patients. In the latter population, maraviroc showed a superior antiviral efficacy and immunological activity compared with optimized backbone therapy + placebo. However, in MERIT, a prospective double-blind, randomized trial in treatment-naive patients, maraviroc + zidovudine/lamivudine failed to prove non-inferiority to efavirenz + zidovudine/lamivudine as standard of care regimen in the 48 week intention-to-treat analysis. Using an assay with higher sensitivity for minority CXCR4-using (X4) HIV variants (the enhanced Trofile assay-Monogram), non-inferiority was reached for the maraviroc- versus efavirenz-based combination. These data indicate the important impact of the sensitivity of tropism testing on treatment outcome of maraviroc-containing regimens. This paper discusses both the prospective and retrospective analyses of the MERIT data and highlights the impact of these results on daily practice in HIV care.

Use of Bayesian Networks to Analyze Port Variables in Order to Make Sustainable Planning and Management Decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Molina Serrano

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In the current economic, social and political environment, society demands a greater variety of outcomes from the public logistics sector, such as efficiency, efficiency of managed resources, greater transparency and business performance. All of them are an indispensable counterpart for its recognition and support. In case of port planning and management, many variables are included. Use of Bayesian Networks allows to classify, predict and diagnose these variables and even to estimate the subsequent probability of unknown variables, basing on the known ones. Research includes a data base with more than 40 variables, which have been classified as smart port studies in Spain. Then a network was generated using a non-cyclic conducted grafo, which shows port variable relationships. As conclusion, economic variables are cause of the rest of categories and they represent a parent role in the most of cases. Furthermore, if environmental variables are known, subsequent probability of social variables can be estimated.

Structural equation modelling of viral tropism reveals its impact on achieving viral suppression within 6 months in treatment-naive HIV-1-infected patients after combination antiretroviral therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengoli, Carlo; Andreis, Samantha; Scaggiante, Renzo; Cruciani, Mario; Bosco, Oliviero; Ferretto, Roberto; Leoni, Davide; Maffongelli, Gaetano; Basso, Monica; Torti, Carlo; Sarmati, Loredana; Andreoni, Massimo; Palù, Giorgio; Parisi, Saverio Giuseppe

2017-01-01

To evaluate the role of pre-treatment co-receptor tropism of plasma HIV on the achievement of viral suppression (plasma HIV RNA 1.69 log 10 copies/mL) at the sixth month of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in a cohort of naive patients using, for the first time in this context, a path analysis (PA) approach. Adult patients with chronic infection by subtype B HIV-1 were consecutively enrolled from the start of first-line cART (T0). Genotypic analysis of viral tropism was performed on plasma and interpreted using the bioinformatic tool Geno2pheno, with a false positive rate of 10%. A Bayesian network starting from the viro-immunological data at T0 and at the sixth month of treatment (T1) was set up and this model was evaluated using a PA approach. A total of 262 patients (22.1% bearing an X4 virus) were included; 178 subjects (67.9%) achieved viral suppression. A significant positive indirect effect of bearing X4 virus in plasma at T0 on log 10 HIV RNA at T1 was detected (P = 0.009), the magnitude of this effect was, however, over 10-fold lower than the direct effect of log 10 HIV RNA at T0 on log 10 HIV RNA at T1 (P = 0.000). Moreover, a significant positive indirect effect of bearing an X4 virus on log 10 HIV RNA at T0 (P = 0.003) was apparent. PA overcame the limitations implicit in common multiple regression analysis and showed the possible role of pre-treatment viral tropism at the recommended threshold on the outcome of plasma viraemia in naive patients after 6 months of therapy. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Major clinical outcomes in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive participants and in those not receiving ART at baseline in the SMART study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundgren, Jens; Emery, Sean; Neuhaus, Jacqueline A

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The SMART study randomized 5,472 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with CD4+ cell counts >350 cells/microL to intermittent antiretroviral therapy (ART; the drug conservation [DC] group) versus continuous ART (the viral suppression [VS] group). In the DC group......, participants started ART when the CD4+ cell count was ART at entry inform the early use of ART. METHODS: Patients who were either ART naive (n=249) or who had not been receiving ART for >or= 6 months (n=228) were analyzed. The following......). RESULTS: A total of 477 participants (228 in the DC group and 249 in the VS group) were followed (mean, 18 months). For outcome (iv), 21 and 6 events occurred in the DC (7 in ART-naive participants and 14 in those who had not received ART for >or= 6 months) and VS (2 in ART-naive participants and 4...

SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN UNTUK MENGEVALUASI INTERNAL PROGRAM STUDI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indhitya Rahman Padiku

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The development of major and study program cannot be separated by some internal factors weather directly influenced number of new registration students or indirectly. It needs a method to both know and to analyze internal evaluation variables in major or study program. Naive Bayes Clasifier (NBC method is the simple form of Bayesian network that assume all features are independent each other. NBC shows us a great performance entirely in accuracy and error level classification. NBC is able to differentiate irrelevance attribute and also classified some attributes in prediction needs. This research hopefully can be useful for major internal evaluating and study program in order to increase the number of new registration students. The classification by influenced of variables to evaluate the condition of both major and study program for the new registration students.

Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

CERN Document Server

Kruschke, John K

2011-01-01

There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

2000-01-01

A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Bayesian object classification of gold nanoparticles

KAUST Repository

Konomi, Bledar A.

2013-06-01

The properties of materials synthesized with nanoparticles (NPs) are highly correlated to the sizes and shapes of the nanoparticles. The transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging technique can be used to measure the morphological characteristics of NPs, which can be simple circles or more complex irregular polygons with varying degrees of scales and sizes. A major difficulty in analyzing the TEM images is the overlapping of objects, having different morphological properties with no specific information about the number of objects present. Furthermore, the objects lying along the boundary render automated image analysis much more difficult. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Bayesian method based on the marked-point process representation of the objects. We derive models, both for the marks which parameterize the morphological aspects and the points which determine the location of the objects. The proposed model is an automatic image segmentation and classification procedure, which simultaneously detects the boundaries and classifies the NPs into one of the predetermined shape families. We execute the inference by sampling the posterior distribution using Markov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) since the posterior is doubly intractable. We apply our novel method to several TEM imaging samples of gold NPs, producing the needed statistical characterization of their morphology. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2013.

Bayesian object classification of gold nanoparticles

KAUST Repository

Konomi, Bledar A.; Dhavala, Soma S.; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Kundu, Subrata; Huitink, David; Liang, Hong; Ding, Yu; Mallick, Bani K.

2013-01-01

The properties of materials synthesized with nanoparticles (NPs) are highly correlated to the sizes and shapes of the nanoparticles. The transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging technique can be used to measure the morphological characteristics of NPs, which can be simple circles or more complex irregular polygons with varying degrees of scales and sizes. A major difficulty in analyzing the TEM images is the overlapping of objects, having different morphological properties with no specific information about the number of objects present. Furthermore, the objects lying along the boundary render automated image analysis much more difficult. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Bayesian method based on the marked-point process representation of the objects. We derive models, both for the marks which parameterize the morphological aspects and the points which determine the location of the objects. The proposed model is an automatic image segmentation and classification procedure, which simultaneously detects the boundaries and classifies the NPs into one of the predetermined shape families. We execute the inference by sampling the posterior distribution using Markov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) since the posterior is doubly intractable. We apply our novel method to several TEM imaging samples of gold NPs, producing the needed statistical characterization of their morphology. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2013.

Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

CERN Document Server

Candy, James V

2016-01-01

This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...

Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-01

years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11

Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit

KAUST Repository

Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

2013-01-01

A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

OpenAIRE

Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike

2016-01-01

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...

Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.

Intravitreal bevacizumab (Avastin) for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in treatment-naive patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Karen Bjerg; Sjølie, Anne Katrin; Møller, Flemming

2008-01-01

Abstract. Purpose: To report the effects of intravitreal bevacizumab (Avastin((R))) in treatment-naive patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) assessed by visual acuity (VA), optical coherence tomography (OCT) and contrast sensitivity. Methods: A prospective, uncontrolled...... was not statistically significant. Mean macular thickness decreased significantly from baseline to all follow-up examinations (P Macular thickness improved significantly at all time...

Comparative Study of Inference Methods for Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brouwer, Thomas; Frellsen, Jes; Liò, Pietro

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri......-factorisation, and compare non-probabilistic inference, Gibbs sampling, variational Bayesian inference, and a maximum-a-posteriori approach. The variational approach is new for the Bayesian nonnegative models. We compare their convergence, and robustness to noise and sparsity of the data, on both synthetic and real...

Virological failure and HIV-1 drug resistance mutations among naive and antiretroviral pre-treated patients entering the ESTHER program of Calmette Hospital in Cambodia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hubert Barennes

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: In resource limited settings, patients entering an antiretroviral therapy (ART program comprise ART naive and ART pre-treated patients who may show differential virological outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective study, conducted in 2010-2012 in the HIV clinic of Calmette Hospital located in Phnom Penh (Cambodia assessed virological failure (VF rates and patterns of drug resistance of naive and pre-treated patients. Naive and ART pre-treated patients were included when a Viral Load (VL was performed during the first year of ART for naive subjects or at the first consultation for pre-treated individuals. Patients showing Virological failure (VF (>1,000 copies/ml underwent HIV DR genotyping testing. Interpretation of drug resistance mutations was done according to 2013 version 23 ANRS algorithms. RESULTS: On a total of 209 patients, 164 (78.4% were naive and 45 (21.5% were ART pre-treated. Their median initial CD4 counts were 74 cells/mm3 (IQR: 30-194 and 279 cells/mm3 (IQR: 103-455 (p<0.001, respectively. Twenty seven patients (12.9% exhibited VF (95% CI: 8.6-18.2%, including 10 naive (10/164, 6.0% and 17 pre-treated (17/45, 37.8% patients (p<0.001. Among these viremic patients, twenty-two (81.4% were sequenced in reverse transcriptase and protease coding regions. Overall, 19 (86.3% harbored ≥1 drug resistance mutations (DRMs whereas 3 (all belonging to pre-treated patients harbored wild-types viruses. The most frequent DRMs were M184V (86.3%, K103N (45.5% and thymidine analog mutations (TAMs (40.9%. Two (13.3% pre-treated patients harbored viruses that showed a multi-nucleos(tide resistance including Q151M, K65R, E33A/D, E44A/D mutations. CONCLUSION: In Cambodia, VF rates were low for naive patients but the emergence of DRMs to NNRTI and 3TC occurred relatively quickly in this subgroup. In pre-treated patients, VF rates were much higher and TAMs were relatively common. HIV genotypic assays before ART initiation and for ART pre

Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

2018-01-01

This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

Automated Detection of Driver Fatigue Based on AdaBoost Classifier with EEG Signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianfeng Hu

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Driving fatigue has become one of the important causes of road accidents, there are many researches to analyze driver fatigue. EEG is becoming increasingly useful in the measuring fatigue state. Manual interpretation of EEG signals is impossible, so an effective method for automatic detection of EEG signals is crucial needed.Method: In order to evaluate the complex, unstable, and non-linear characteristics of EEG signals, four feature sets were computed from EEG signals, in which fuzzy entropy (FE, sample entropy (SE, approximate Entropy (AE, spectral entropy (PE, and combined entropies (FE + SE + AE + PE were included. All these feature sets were used as the input vectors of AdaBoost classifier, a boosting method which is fast and highly accurate. To assess our method, several experiments including parameter setting and classifier comparison were conducted on 28 subjects. For comparison, Decision Trees (DT, Support Vector Machine (SVM and Naive Bayes (NB classifiers are used.Results: The proposed method (combination of FE and AdaBoost yields superior performance than other schemes. Using FE feature extractor, AdaBoost achieves improved area (AUC under the receiver operating curve of 0.994, error rate (ERR of 0.024, Precision of 0.969, Recall of 0.984, F1 score of 0.976, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC of 0.952, compared to SVM (ERR at 0.035, Precision of 0.957, Recall of 0.974, F1 score of 0.966, and MCC of 0.930 with AUC of 0.990, DT (ERR at 0.142, Precision of 0.857, Recall of 0.859, F1 score of 0.966, and MCC of 0.716 with AUC of 0.916 and NB (ERR at 0.405, Precision of 0.646, Recall of 0.434, F1 score of 0.519, and MCC of 0.203 with AUC of 0.606. It shows that the FE feature set and combined feature set outperform other feature sets. AdaBoost seems to have better robustness against changes of ratio of test samples for all samples and number of subjects, which might therefore aid in the real-time detection of driver

Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?

Science.gov (United States)

Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R

2017-08-07

The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also

Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Romeijn, J.-W.

2011-01-01

Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, Denny; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Romeijn, Jan-Willem

Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with

Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Berry, Donald A

1996-01-01

...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.

A Bayesian Optimal Design for Sequential Accelerated Degradation Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyang Li

2017-07-01

Full Text Available When optimizing an accelerated degradation testing (ADT plan, the initial values of unknown model parameters must be pre-specified. However, it is usually difficult to obtain the exact values, since many uncertainties are embedded in these parameters. Bayesian ADT optimal design was presented to address this problem by using prior distributions to capture these uncertainties. Nevertheless, when the difference between a prior distribution and actual situation is large, the existing Bayesian optimal design might cause some over-testing or under-testing issues. For example, the implemented ADT following the optimal ADT plan consumes too much testing resources or few accelerated degradation data are obtained during the ADT. To overcome these obstacles, a Bayesian sequential step-down-stress ADT design is proposed in this article. During the sequential ADT, the test under the highest stress level is firstly conducted based on the initial prior information to quickly generate degradation data. Then, the data collected under higher stress levels are employed to construct the prior distributions for the test design under lower stress levels by using the Bayesian inference. In the process of optimization, the inverse Gaussian (IG process is assumed to describe the degradation paths, and the Bayesian D-optimality is selected as the optimal objective. A case study on an electrical connector’s ADT plan is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian sequential ADT design method. Compared with the results from a typical static Bayesian ADT plan, the proposed design could guarantee more stable and precise estimations of different reliability measures.

A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling

OpenAIRE

Lo, Albert Y.

1993-01-01

Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...

A 3-D Contextual Classifier

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Rasmus

1997-01-01

In this paper we will consider an extension of the Bayesian 2-D contextual class ification routine developed by Owen, Hjort \\$\\backslash\\$& Mohn to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further information can be obtained by tak ing into account...

Bayesian Geostatistical Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

2006-01-01

locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I : Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Marsman, M.; Jamil, T.; Ly, A.; Verhagen, J.; Love, J.; Selker, R.; Gronau, Q.F.; Šmíra, M.; Epskamp, S.; Matzke, D.; Rouder, J.N.; Morey, R.D.

2018-01-01

Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing present attractive alternatives to classical inference using confidence intervals and p values. In part I of this series we outline ten prominent advantages of the Bayesian approach. Many of these advantages translate to concrete

A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development.

Science.gov (United States)

Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Xu, Fei

2011-09-01

We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the what, the how, and the why of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for developmentalists. We emphasize a qualitative understanding of Bayesian inference, but also include information about additional resources for those interested in the cognitive science applications, mathematical foundations, or machine learning details in more depth. In addition, we discuss some important interpretation issues that often arise when evaluating Bayesian models in cognitive science. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

2018-04-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

2012-01-01

This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

Bayesian Dark Knowledge

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.

2015-01-01

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple

Bayesian grid matching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

2003-01-01

A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

Plasma homovanillic acid levels and therapeutic outcome in schizophrenics: comparisons of neuroleptic-naive first-episode patients and patients with disease exacerbation due to neuroleptic discontinuance.

Science.gov (United States)

Akiyama, K; Tsuchida, K; Kanzaki, A; Ujike, H; Hamamura, T; Kondo, K; Mutoh, S; Miyanagi, K; Kuroda, S; Otsuki, S

1995-11-15

Plasma homovanillic acid (pHVA) levels were measured and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) scores were evaluated in 26 schizophrenic patients who had either never been medicated (neuroleptic-naive, first-episode subjects) or whose condition had become exacerbated following neuroleptic discontinuance (exacerbated subjects). All the subjects received medication with a fixed dose of a neuroleptic (haloperidol or fluphenazine, both 9 mg/day) for the first week and variable doses for the subsequent 4 weeks. In the neuroleptic-naive subjects, pHVA levels increased significantly 1 week after starting the protocol; this increase correlated significantly with clinical improvement of the BPRS positive symptom scores at week 5. In the neuroleptic-naive subjects, pHVA levels had declined to the baseline level by week 5. In the exacerbated subjects, there were no significant correlations between pHVA level changes at week 1 and later improvements of the BPRS positive symptom scores. These results suggest that the rise in pHVA levels occurring within 1 week after starting a fixed neuroleptic dose may predict a favorable clinical response in neuroleptic-naive schizophrenic patients.

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly; Clifton, James; van de Schoot, A.G.J.; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-01-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of Health Psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation

Bayesian Classification Models for Premature Ventricular Contraction Detection on ECG Traces.

Science.gov (United States)

Casas, Manuel M; Avitia, Roberto L; Gonzalez-Navarro, Felix F; Cardenas-Haro, Jose A; Reyna, Marco A

2018-01-01

According to the American Heart Association, in its latest commission about Ventricular Arrhythmias and Sudden Death 2006, the epidemiology of the ventricular arrhythmias ranges from a series of risk descriptors and clinical markers that go from ventricular premature complexes and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia to sudden cardiac death due to ventricular tachycardia in patients with or without clinical history. The premature ventricular complexes (PVCs) are known to be associated with malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) cases. Detecting this kind of arrhythmia has been crucial in clinical applications. The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a clinical test used to measure the heart electrical activity for inferences and diagnosis. Analyzing large ECG traces from several thousands of beats has brought the necessity to develop mathematical models that can automatically make assumptions about the heart condition. In this work, 80 different features from 108,653 ECG classified beats of the gold-standard MIT-BIH database were extracted in order to classify the Normal, PVC, and other kind of ECG beats. Three well-known Bayesian classification algorithms were trained and tested using these extracted features. Experimental results show that the F1 scores for each class were above 0.95, giving almost the perfect value for the PVC class. This gave us a promising path in the development of automated mechanisms for the detection of PVC complexes.

Comparative analysis of drug resistance mutations in the human immunodeficiency virus reverse transcriptase gene in patients who are non-responsive, responsive and naive to antiretroviral therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Misbah, Mohammad; Roy, Gaurav; Shahid, Mudassar; Nag, Nalin; Kumar, Suresh; Husain, Mohammad

2016-05-01

Drug resistance mutations in the Pol gene of human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) are one of the critical factors associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) failure in HIV-1 patients. The issue of resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors (RTIs) in HIV infection has not been adequately addressed in the Indian subcontinent. We compared HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) gene sequences to identify mutations present in HIV-1 patients who were ART non-responders, ART responders and drug naive. Genotypic drug resistance testing was performed by sequencing a 655-bp region of the RT gene from 102 HIV-1 patients, consisting of 30 ART-non-responding, 35 ART-responding and 37 drug-naive patients. The Stanford HIV Resistance Database (HIVDBv 6.2), IAS-USA mutation list, ANRS_09/2012 algorithm, and Rega v8.02 algorithm were used to interpret the pattern of drug resistance. The majority of the sequences (96 %) belonged to subtype C, and a few of them (3.9 %) to subtype A1. The frequency of drug resistance mutations observed in ART-non-responding, ART-responding and drug-naive patients was 40.1 %, 10.7 % and 20.58 %, respectively. It was observed that in non-responders, multiple mutations were present in the same patient, while in responders, a single mutation was found. Some of the drug-naive patients had more than one mutation. Thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs), however, were found in non-responders and naive patients but not in responders. Although drug resistance mutations were widely distributed among ART non-responders, the presence of resistance mutations in the viruses of drug-naive patients poses a big concern in the absence of a genotyping resistance test.

Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

A Bayesian approach to particle identification in ALICE

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

Among the LHC experiments, ALICE has unique particle identification (PID) capabilities exploiting different types of detectors. During Run 1, a Bayesian approach to PID was developed and intensively tested. It facilitates the combination of information from different sub-systems. The adopted methodology and formalism as well as the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE will be reviewed. Results are presented with PID performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight using information from the TPC and TOF detectors, respectively. Methods to extract priors from data and to compare PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities in data and Monte Carlo using high-purity samples of identified particles will be presented. Bayesian PID results were found consistent with previous measurements published by ALICE. The Bayesian PID approach gives a higher signal-to-background ratio and a similar or larger statist...

Optimal Detection under the Restricted Bayesian Criterion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shujun Liu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to find a suitable decision rule for a binary composite hypothesis-testing problem with a partial or coarse prior distribution. To alleviate the negative impact of the information uncertainty, a constraint is considered that the maximum conditional risk cannot be greater than a predefined value. Therefore, the objective of this paper becomes to find the optimal decision rule to minimize the Bayes risk under the constraint. By applying the Lagrange duality, the constrained optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained optimization problem. In doing so, the restricted Bayesian decision rule is obtained as a classical Bayesian decision rule corresponding to a modified prior distribution. Based on this transformation, the optimal restricted Bayesian decision rule is analyzed and the corresponding algorithm is developed. Furthermore, the relation between the Bayes risk and the predefined value of the constraint is also discussed. The Bayes risk obtained via the restricted Bayesian decision rule is a strictly decreasing and convex function of the constraint on the maximum conditional risk. Finally, the numerical results including a detection example are presented and agree with the theoretical results.

Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

2003-01-01

The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

Acute cognitive impact of antiseizure drugs in naive rodents and corneal-kindled mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker-Haliski, Melissa L; Vanegas, Fabiola; Mau, Matthew J; Underwood, Tristan K; White, H Steve

2016-09-01

Some antiseizure drugs (ASDs) are associated with cognitive liability in patients with epilepsy, thus ASDs without this risk would be preferred. Little comparative pharmacology exists with ASDs in preclinical models of cognition. Few pharmacologic studies exist on the acute effects in rodents with chronic seizures. Predicting risk for cognitive impact with preclinical models may supply valuable ASD differentiation data. ASDs (phenytoin [PHT]; carbamazepine [CBZ]; valproic acid [VPA]; lamotrigine [LTG]; phenobarbital [PB]; tiagabine [TGB]; retigabine [RTG]; topiramate [TPM]; and levetiracetam [LEV]) were administered equivalent to maximal electroshock median effective dose ([ED50]; mice, rats), or median dose necessary to elicit minimal motor impairment (median toxic dose [TD50]; rats). Cognition models with naive adult rodents were novel object/place recognition (NOPR) task with CF-1 mice, and Morris water maze (MWM) with Sprague-Dawley rats. Selected ASDs were also administered to rats prior to testing in an open field. The effect of chronic seizures and ASD administration on cognitive performance in NOPR was also determined with corneal-kindled mice. Mice that did not achieve kindling criterion (partially kindled) were included to examine the effect of electrical stimulation on cognitive performance. Sham-kindled and age-matched mice were also tested. No ASD (ED50) affected latency to locate the MWM platform; TD50 of PB, RTG, TPM, and VPA reduced this latency. In naive mice, CBZ and VPA (ED50) reduced time with the novel object. Of interest, no ASD (ED50) affected performance of fully kindled mice in NOPR, whereas CBZ and LEV improved cognitive performance of partially kindled mice. Standardized approaches to the preclinical evaluation of an ASD's potential cognitive impact are needed to inform drug development. This study demonstrated acute, dose- and model-dependent effects of therapeutically relevant doses of ASDs on cognitive performance of naive mice and

Comparative study of clozapine versus risperidone in treatment-naive, first-episode schizophrenia: A pilot study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sukhtej Sahni

2016-01-01

Interpretation & conclusions: The findings of this preliminary study showed clozapine as a better choice than risperidone in terms of efficacy, tolerability and better quality of life in treatment-naive, first-episode schizophrenia. However, further studies need to be done on a larger group of patients to confirm the findings.

Naive T lymphocytes traffic to inflamed central nervous system, but require antigen recognition for activation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krakowski, M L; Owens, T

2000-01-01

Organ-specific autoimmune diseases may be induced by infiltration of the target tissue by CD4(+) T cells with specificity for self antigen(s). As disease progresses, T cells of other specificities appear in the tissue. Traffic of naive, antigen-inexperienced T cells to target tissues has not been...

Towards Bayesian Inference of the Fast-Ion Distribution Function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W.; Salewski, Mirko

2012-01-01

sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities, while prior probabilities enforce physical constraints. As an initial step, this poster uses Bayesian statistics to infer the DIII-D electron density profile from multiple diagnostic measurements. Likelihood functions....... However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and ``weight functions" that describe the phase space...

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

2014-01-01

We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

2013-01-01

This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

Bayesian-based localization in inhomogeneous transmission media

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nadimi, E. S.; Blanes-Vidal, V.; Johansen, P. M.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network with heteroge......In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network...... with heterogeneous transmission medium as a function of the given RSS measurements and the characteristics of the heterogeneous medium. The results of this study show that the localization mean square error (MSE) of the Bayesian-based method outperformed all other existing localization approaches. © 2013 ACM....

Strain differences in the neural, behavioral, and molecular correlates of sweet and salty taste in naive, ethanol- and sucrose-exposed P and NP rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Coleman, Jamison; Williams, Ashley; Phan, Tam-Hao T; Mummalaneni, Shobha; Melone, Pamela; Ren, Zuojun; Zhou, Huiping; Mahavadi, Sunila; Murthy, Karnam S; Katsumata, Tadayoshi; DeSimone, John A; Lyall, Vijay

2011-11-01

Strain differences between naive, sucrose- and ethanol-exposed alcohol-preferring (P) and alcohol-nonpreferring (NP) rats were investigated in their consumption of ethanol, sucrose, and NaCl; chorda tympani (CT) nerve responses to sweet and salty stimuli; and gene expression in the anterior tongue of T1R3 and TRPV1/TRPV1t. Preference for 5% ethanol and 10% sucrose, CT responses to sweet stimuli, and T1R3 expression were greater in naive P rats than NP rats. The enhancement of the CT response to 0.5 M sucrose in the presence of varying ethanol concentrations (0.5-40%) in naive P rats was higher and shifted to lower ethanol concentrations than NP rats. Chronic ingestion of 5% sucrose or 5% ethanol decreased T1R3 mRNA in NP and P rats. Naive P rats also demonstrated bigger CT responses to NaCl+benzamil and greater TRPV1/TRPV1t expression. TRPV1t agonists produced biphasic effects on NaCl+benzamil CT responses, enhancing the response at low concentrations and inhibiting it at high concentrations. The concentration of a TRPV1/TRPV1t agonist (Maillard reacted peptides conjugated with galacturonic acid) that produced a maximum enhancement in the NaCl+benzamil CT response induced a decrease in NaCl intake and preference in P rats. In naive P rats and NP rats exposed to 5% ethanol in a no-choice paradigm, the biphasic TRPV1t agonist vs. NaCl+benzamil CT response profiles were higher and shifted to lower agonist concentrations than in naive NP rats. TRPV1/TRPV1t mRNA expression increased in NP rats but not in P rats exposed to 5% ethanol in a no-choice paradigm. We conclude that P and NP rats differ in T1R3 and TRPV1/TRPV1t expression and neural and behavioral responses to sweet and salty stimuli and to chronic sucrose and ethanol exposure.

Bayesian modeling of ChIP-chip data using latent variables.

KAUST Repository

Wu, Mingqi

2009-10-26

BACKGROUND: The ChIP-chip technology has been used in a wide range of biomedical studies, such as identification of human transcription factor binding sites, investigation of DNA methylation, and investigation of histone modifications in animals and plants. Various methods have been proposed in the literature for analyzing the ChIP-chip data, such as the sliding window methods, the hidden Markov model-based methods, and Bayesian methods. Although, due to the integrated consideration of uncertainty of the models and model parameters, Bayesian methods can potentially work better than the other two classes of methods, the existing Bayesian methods do not perform satisfactorily. They usually require multiple replicates or some extra experimental information to parametrize the model, and long CPU time due to involving of MCMC simulations. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a Bayesian latent model for the ChIP-chip data. The new model mainly differs from the existing Bayesian models, such as the joint deconvolution model, the hierarchical gamma mixture model, and the Bayesian hierarchical model, in two respects. Firstly, it works on the difference between the averaged treatment and control samples. This enables the use of a simple model for the data, which avoids the probe-specific effect and the sample (control/treatment) effect. As a consequence, this enables an efficient MCMC simulation of the posterior distribution of the model, and also makes the model more robust to the outliers. Secondly, it models the neighboring dependence of probes by introducing a latent indicator vector. A truncated Poisson prior distribution is assumed for the latent indicator variable, with the rationale being justified at length. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian latent method is successfully applied to real and ten simulated datasets, with comparisons with some of the existing Bayesian methods, hidden Markov model methods, and sliding window methods. The numerical results indicate that the

Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

2016-01-01

Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a

Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Takiyama, Ken

2016-05-01

Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

No change of dopamine transporter density in basal ganglia after risperidone treatment in drug-naive children with Tourette's disorder

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ryu, W. K.; Ryu, Y. H.; Yoon, M. J.; Chun, K. A.; Lee, J. D.; Zee, D. Y.; Choi, T. H.

2003-01-01

Tourette's disorder (TD), which is characterized by multiple waxing and waning motor tics and one or more vocal tics, is known to be associated with abnormalities in the dopaminergic system. To testify our hypothesis that risperidone would improve tic symptoms of TD patients through the change of the dopaminergic system, we measured the DAT densities between drug-naive children with TD and normal children investigated the DAT density before and after treatment with risperidone in drug-naive children with TD, using lodine-123 labelled N-(3-iodopropen-2-yl)-2beta-carbomethoxy-3beta-(4-chlorophenyl) tropane(I-123 IPT) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). I-123 IPT SPECT imaging and Yale Global Tic Severity Scale-Korean version (YGTSS-K) for assessing the tic symptom severity were carried out before and after treatment with risperidone for 8 weeks in eight drug-naive children with TD. Eight normal children also underwent SPECT imaging 2 hours after an intravenous administration of I-123 IPT and carried out both quantitative and qualitative analyses using the obtained SPECT data, which were reconstructed for the assessment of the specific/non-specific DAT binding ratio in the basal ganglia. The drug-naive children with TD had a significantly greater increase in the specific/nonspecific DAT binding ratio of both basal ganglia compared with the normal children. However, no significant difference in the specific/nonspecific DAT binding ratio of the basal ganglia before and after treatment with riperidone in children with TD was not found, although tic symptoms were significantly improved with risperidone. These findings suggest that DAT densities are directly associated with the pathophysiology of TD, however, that the effect of risperidone on tic symptoms in children with TD is not attributed to the change of dopaminergic system

Reduced error signalling in medication-naive children with ADHD

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Plessen, Kerstin J; Allen, Elena A; Eichele, Heike

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: We examined the blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) activation in brain regions that signal errors and their association with intraindividual behavioural variability and adaptation to errors in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). METHODS: We acquired...... functional MRI data during a Flanker task in medication-naive children with ADHD and healthy controls aged 8-12 years and analyzed the data using independent component analysis. For components corresponding to performance monitoring networks, we compared activations across groups and conditions...... and correlated them with reaction times (RT). Additionally, we analyzed post-error adaptations in behaviour and motor component activations. RESULTS: We included 25 children with ADHD and 29 controls in our analysis. Children with ADHD displayed reduced activation to errors in cingulo-opercular regions...

Novel genetic susceptibility loci for diabetic end-stage renal disease identified through robust naive Bayes classification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sambo, Francesco; Malovini, Alberto; Sandholm, Niina

2014-01-01

in diabetic patients. Our aim was to detect novel genetic variants associated with diabetic nephropathy and ESRD. METHODS: We exploited a novel algorithm, 'Bag of Naive Bayes', whose marker selection strategy is complementary to that of conventional genome-wide association models based on univariate...

Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

2013-01-01

an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

Classification using Hierarchical Naive Bayes models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Langseth, Helge; Dyhre Nielsen, Thomas

2006-01-01

Classification problems have a long history in the machine learning literature. One of the simplest, and yet most consistently well-performing set of classifiers is the Naïve Bayes models. However, an inherent problem with these classifiers is the assumption that all attributes used to describe......, termed Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models. Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models extend the modeling flexibility of Naïve Bayes models by introducing latent variables to relax some of the independence statements in these models. We propose a simple algorithm for learning Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models...

Tracking influence between naive Bayes models using score-based structure learning

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Ajoodha, R

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Current structure learning practices in Bayesian networks have been developed to learn the structure between observable variables and learning latent parameters independently. One exception establishes a variant of EM for learning the structure...

Classical Swine Fever Outbreak after Modified Live LOM Strain Vaccination in Naive Pigs, South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Je, Sang H.; Kwon, Taeyong; Yoo, Sung J.; Lee, Dong-Uk; Lee, SeungYoon; Richt, Juergen A.

2018-01-01

We report classical swine fever outbreaks occurring in naive pig herds on Jeju Island, South Korea, after the introduction of the LOM vaccine strain. Two isolates from sick pigs had >99% identity with the vaccine stain. LOM strain does not appear safe; its use in the vaccine should be reconsidered. PMID:29553332

Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric D. Johnson

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.

Being Bayesian in a quantum world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuchs, C.

2005-01-01

Full text: To be a Bayesian about probability theory is to accept that probabilities represent subjective degrees of belief and nothing more. This is in distinction to the idea that probabilities represent long-term frequencies or objective propensities. But, how can a subjective account of probabilities coexist with the existence of quantum mechanics? To accept quantum mechanics is to accept the calculational apparatus of quantum states and the Born rule for determining probabilities in a quantum measurement. If there ever were a place for probabilities to be objective, it ought to be here. This raises the question of whether Bayesianism and quantum mechanics are compatible at all. For the Bayesian, it only suggests that we should rethink what quantum mechanics is about. Is it 'law of nature' or really more 'law of thought'? From transistors to lasers, the evidence is in that we live in a quantum world. One could infer from this that all the elements in the quantum formalism necessarily mirror nature itself: wave functions are so successful as calculational tools precisely because they represent elements of reality. A more Bayesian-like perspective is that if wave functions generate probabilities, then they too must be Bayesian degrees of belief, with all that such a radical idea entails. In particular, quantum probabilities have no firmer hold on reality than the word 'belief' in 'degrees of belief' already indicates. From this perspective, the only sense in which the quantum formalism mirrors nature is through the constraints it places on gambling agents who would like to better navigate through world. One might think that this is thin information, but it is not insubstantial. To the extent that an agent should use quantum mechanics for his uncertainty accounting rather than some other theory tells us something about the world itself - i.e., the world independent of the agent and his particular beliefs at any moment. In this talk, I will try to shore up these

SpectraClassifier 1.0: a user friendly, automated MRS-based classifier-development system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julià-Sapé Margarida

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background SpectraClassifier (SC is a Java solution for designing and implementing Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS-based classifiers. The main goal of SC is to allow users with minimum background knowledge of multivariate statistics to perform a fully automated pattern recognition analysis. SC incorporates feature selection (greedy stepwise approach, either forward or backward, and feature extraction (PCA. Fisher Linear Discriminant Analysis is the method of choice for classification. Classifier evaluation is performed through various methods: display of the confusion matrix of the training and testing datasets; K-fold cross-validation, leave-one-out and bootstrapping as well as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curves. Results SC is composed of the following modules: Classifier design, Data exploration, Data visualisation, Classifier evaluation, Reports, and Classifier history. It is able to read low resolution in-vivo MRS (single-voxel and multi-voxel and high resolution tissue MRS (HRMAS, processed with existing tools (jMRUI, INTERPRET, 3DiCSI or TopSpin. In addition, to facilitate exchanging data between applications, a standard format capable of storing all the information needed for a dataset was developed. Each functionality of SC has been specifically validated with real data with the purpose of bug-testing and methods validation. Data from the INTERPRET project was used. Conclusions SC is a user-friendly software designed to fulfil the needs of potential users in the MRS community. It accepts all kinds of pre-processed MRS data types and classifies them semi-automatically, allowing spectroscopists to concentrate on interpretation of results with the use of its visualisation tools.

Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment of corroded interdependent pipe networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Mokhtar, El Hassene; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Laggoune, Radouane

2016-01-01

Pipelines under corrosion are subject to various environment conditions, and consequently it becomes difficult to build realistic corrosion models. In the present work, a Bayesian methodology is proposed to allow for updating the corrosion model parameters according to the evolution of environmental conditions. For reliability assessment of dependent structures, Bayesian networks are used to provide interesting qualitative and quantitative description of the information in the system. The qualitative contribution lies in the modeling of complex system, composed by dependent pipelines, as a Bayesian network. The quantitative one lies in the evaluation of the dependencies between pipelines by the use of a new method for the generation of conditional probability tables. The effectiveness of Bayesian updating is illustrated through an application where the new reliability of degraded (corroded) pipe networks is assessed. - Highlights: • A methodology for Bayesian network modeling of pipe networks is proposed. • Bayesian approach based on Metropolis - Hastings algorithm is conducted for corrosion model updating. • The reliability of corroded pipe network is assessed by considering the interdependencies between the pipelines.

Telomere Elongation and Naive Pluripotent Stem Cells Achieved from Telomerase Haplo-Insufficient Cells by Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li-Ying Sung

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Summary: Haplo-insufficiency of telomerase genes in humans leads to telomere syndromes such as dyskeratosis congenital and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Generation of pluripotent stem cells from telomerase haplo-insufficient donor cells would provide unique opportunities toward the realization of patient-specific stem cell therapies. Recently, pluripotent human embryonic stem cells (ntESCs have been efficiently achieved by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT. We tested the hypothesis that SCNT could effectively elongate shortening telomeres of telomerase haplo-insufficient cells in the ntESCs with relevant mouse models. Indeed, telomeres of telomerase haplo-insufficient (Terc+/− mouse cells are elongated in ntESCs. Moreover, ntESCs derived from Terc+/− cells exhibit naive pluripotency as evidenced by generation of Terc+/− ntESC clone pups by tetraploid embryo complementation, the most stringent test of naive pluripotency. These data suggest that SCNT could offer a powerful tool to reprogram telomeres and to discover the factors for robust restoration of telomeres and pluripotency of telomerase haplo-insufficient somatic cells. : Sung et al. demonstrate in a mouse model that telomeres of telomerase haplo-insufficient cells can be elongated by somatic cell nuclear transfer. Moreover, ntESCs derived from Terc+/− cells exhibit pluripotency evidenced by generation of Terc+/−ntESC clone pups by tetraploid embryo complementation, the most stringent test of naive pluripotency.

Naive helper T cells from BCG-vaccinated volunteers produce IFN-gamma and IL-5 to mycobacterial antigen-pulsed dendritic cells.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JoĂŤl Pestel

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-GuĂŠrin (BCG is a live vaccine that has been used in routine vaccination against tuberculosis for nearly 80 years. However, its efficacy is controversial. The failure of BCG vaccination may be at least partially explained by the induction of poor or inappropriate host responses. Dendritic cells (DCs are likely to play a key role in the induction of immune response to mycobacteria by polarizing the reactivity of T lymphocytes toward a Th1 profile, contributing to the generation of protective cellular immunity against mycobacteria. In this study we aimed to investigate the production of Th1 and Th2 cytokines by naive CD4+ T cells to mycobacterial antigen-pulsed DCs in the group of young, healthy BCG vaccinated volunteers. The response of naive helper T cells was compared with the response of total blood lymphocytes. Our present results clearly showed that circulating naive CD45RA+CD4+ lymphocytes from BCG-vaccinated subjects can become effector helper cells producing IFN-gamma and IL-5 under the stimulation by autologous dendritic cells presenting mycobacterial protein antigen-PPD or infected with live M. bovis BCG bacilli.

Naive helper T cells from BCG-vaccinated volunteers produce IFN-gamma and IL-5 to mycobacterial antigen-pulsed dendritic cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Kowalewicz-Kulbat, Magdalena; Kaźmierczak, Dominik; Donevski, Stefan; Biet, Franck; Pestel, Joël; Rudnicka, Wiesława

2008-01-01

Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is a live vaccine that has been used in routine vaccination against tuberculosis for nearly 80 years. However, its efficacy is controversial. The failure of BCG vaccination may be at least partially explained by the induction of poor or inappropriate host responses. Dendritic cells (DCs) are likely to play a key role in the induction of immune response to mycobacteria by polarizing the reactivity of T lymphocytes toward a Th1 profile, contributing to the generation of protective cellular immunity against mycobacteria. In this study we aimed to investigate the production of Th1 and Th2 cytokines by naive CD4+ T cells to mycobacterial antigen-pulsed DCs in the group of young, healthy BCG vaccinated volunteers. The response of naive helper T cells was compared with the response of total blood lymphocytes. Our present results clearly showed that circulating naive CD45RA+CD4+ lymphocytes from BCG-vaccinated subjects can become effector helper cells producing IFN-gamma and IL-5 under the stimulation by autologous dendritic cells presenting mycobacterial protein antigen-PPD or infected with live M. bovis BCG bacilli.

Recently activated naive CD4 T cells can help resting B cells, and can produce sufficient autocrine IL-4 to drive differentiation to secretion of T helper 2-type cytokines.

Science.gov (United States)

Croft, M; Swain, S L

1995-05-01

Development of T cells during primary responses was investigated using pigeon cytochrome C-specific naive Th from TCR transgenic mice. Naive CD4 cells did not activate and help resting B cells. This failure was found to be primarily because the resting B cells were incapable of stimulating the naive Th. Provision of a costimulatory signal such as anti-CD28, or addition of APCs that express costimulatory molecules, such as dendritic cells, activated B cells, and B7+ and B7+ICAM(+)-expressing fibroblasts, induced naive Th activation and promoted T cell-dependent help for IgM secretion. T cell activation for as little as 24 h promoted helper activity, and Ig secretion required production of small amounts of IL-4 by the activated naive Th. On initial stimulation, naive Th secrete only IL-2. By mRNA analysis, activated naive Th were also shown to produce IL-4, however induction of IL-4 message only occurred 24 h after initial activation and required additional stimulation with Ag. A single exposure of naive CD4 to Ag/APC followed by 4 to 12 days in culture led to generation of effector Th which secreted IL-2 and some IFN-gamma, and no detectable IL-4 or IL-5, and which could only help B cells to IgM secretion. In contrast, similar cultures that received Ag/APC one or more times during this period generated effector cells capable of secreting easily detectable titers of IL-4 and IL-5, as well as IL-2 and IFN-gamma, and able to now promote IgG1 and IgE responses. Generation of these Th0-like effectors was accompanied by increasing amounts of IL-4 secreted during the culture period after each restimulation, and addition of anti-IL-4 in culture inhibited development of the capacity to produce Th2 cytokines. These studies reinforce the notion that naive CD4 must interact with a costimulatory professional APC, rather than a resting B cell, for initiation of the primary response, but show that such an interaction can result in rapid development of the ability to interact with

Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.

Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

Characteristic appearances of fundus autofluorescence in treatment-naive and active polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy: a retrospective study of 170 patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xinyu; Xia, Song; Chen, Youxin

2018-06-01

To investigate the characteristic appearances of fundus autofluorescence (FAF) in patients with treatment-naive and active polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV). Cases with the diagnosis of treatment-naive and active PCV from November 2012 to May 2017 at Peking Union Medical College Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. All patients underwent comprehensive ophthalmologic examination. Autofluorescence (AF) findings were described at the retinal sites of the corresponding lesions identified and diagnosed using indocyanine green angiography and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. One hundred seventy patients with 192 affected eyes were included. The logMAR BCVA of the patients were 0.53 ± 0.28. The six AF patterns of 243 polypoidal lesions were confluent hypo-AF with hyper-AF ring (49.8%), confluent hypo-AF (22.6%), hyper-AF with hypo-AF ring (3.7%), granular hypo-AF (7.0%), blocked hypo-AF due to hemorrhage (8.6%), and polyps without apparent AF changes (8.2%). For 146 branching vascular networks (BVNs), 97.3% were granular hypo-AF, and others were blocked hypo-AF due to hemorrhage. In eyes with treatment-naive and active PCV, the polypoidal lesions and BVNs induce characteristic FAF changes. FAF images provide reliable adjunct reference for the diagnosis of PCV.

Bayesian statistical inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruno De Finetti

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

OpenAIRE

Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

2000-01-01

In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.

Small angle x-ray scattering as a potential tool for cancer diagnosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitchen, M.; Siu, K.K.W.; Lewis, R.A.

2003-01-01

Full text: The diagnostic potential of Small Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS) patterns has recently been investigated for malignant breast tissues. The demonstrated systematic differences in the scattering signatures of malignant, benign and normal breast tissue specimens are believed to arise from the changes in the fibrous proteins making up the extracellular matrix (ECM) with the disease progression. The technique may also have the potential to aid in the diagnosis of gliomas, a highly aggressive type of brain tumour. Although complex and difficult to interpret, SAXS data from malignant tissues may prove to be a more effective classification tool than conventional histology techniques. Here we present the methodology of the technique, as applied to breast cancer and brain tumour specimens to date, and some directions for future investigations. We also present a novel analysis method, which employs wavelet decomposition and a naive Bayesian classifier, as a potential semi-automated classification tool

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miočević, M.; MacKinnon, David; Levy, Roy

2017-01-01

Bayesian methods have the potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This article compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product,

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2003-01-01

This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Prevalence of Intestinal Parasitic Infection among HIV Positive Persons Who Are Naive and on Antiretroviral Treatment in Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia

OpenAIRE

Teklemariam, Zelalem; Abate, Degu; Mitiku, Habtamu; Dessie, Yadeta

2013-01-01

Background. Intestinal parasitic infection affects the health and quality of life of people living with HIV. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence of intestinal parasites among HIV positive individuals who are naive and who are on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia. Methods. A comparative cross-sectional study was conducted on 371 (112 ART-naive group and 259 on ART) HIV positive individuals. Stool specimens were collected...

Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1994-01-01

Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA

CERN Document Server

Blangiardo, Marta

2015-01-01

Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr

Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

Science.gov (United States)

Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

2011-03-01

This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

2011-01-01

This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.

Modular Bayesian Networks with Low-Power Wearable Sensors for Recognizing Eating Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kee-Hoon Kim

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Recently, recognizing a user’s daily activity using a smartphone and wearable sensors has become a popular issue. However, in contrast with the ideal definition of an experiment, there could be numerous complex activities in real life with respect to its various background and contexts: time, space, age, culture, and so on. Recognizing these complex activities with limited low-power sensors, considering the power and memory constraints of the wearable environment and the user’s obtrusiveness at once is not an easy problem, although it is very crucial for the activity recognizer to be practically useful. In this paper, we recognize activity of eating, which is one of the most typical examples of a complex activity, using only daily low-power mobile and wearable sensors. To organize the related contexts systemically, we have constructed the context model based on activity theory and the “Five W’s”, and propose a Bayesian network with 88 nodes to predict uncertain contexts probabilistically. The structure of the proposed Bayesian network is designed by a modular and tree-structured approach to reduce the time complexity and increase the scalability. To evaluate the proposed method, we collected the data with 10 different activities from 25 volunteers of various ages, occupations, and jobs, and have obtained 79.71% accuracy, which outperforms other conventional classifiers by 7.54–14.4%. Analyses of the results showed that our probabilistic approach could also give approximate results even when one of contexts or sensor values has a very heterogeneous pattern or is missing.

Modular Bayesian Networks with Low-Power Wearable Sensors for Recognizing Eating Activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kee-Hoon; Cho, Sung-Bae

2017-12-11

Recently, recognizing a user's daily activity using a smartphone and wearable sensors has become a popular issue. However, in contrast with the ideal definition of an experiment, there could be numerous complex activities in real life with respect to its various background and contexts: time, space, age, culture, and so on. Recognizing these complex activities with limited low-power sensors, considering the power and memory constraints of the wearable environment and the user's obtrusiveness at once is not an easy problem, although it is very crucial for the activity recognizer to be practically useful. In this paper, we recognize activity of eating, which is one of the most typical examples of a complex activity, using only daily low-power mobile and wearable sensors. To organize the related contexts systemically, we have constructed the context model based on activity theory and the "Five W's", and propose a Bayesian network with 88 nodes to predict uncertain contexts probabilistically. The structure of the proposed Bayesian network is designed by a modular and tree-structured approach to reduce the time complexity and increase the scalability. To evaluate the proposed method, we collected the data with 10 different activities from 25 volunteers of various ages, occupations, and jobs, and have obtained 79.71% accuracy, which outperforms other conventional classifiers by 7.54-14.4%. Analyses of the results showed that our probabilistic approach could also give approximate results even when one of contexts or sensor values has a very heterogeneous pattern or is missing.

Modular Bayesian Networks with Low-Power Wearable Sensors for Recognizing Eating Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kee-Hoon

2017-01-01

Recently, recognizing a user’s daily activity using a smartphone and wearable sensors has become a popular issue. However, in contrast with the ideal definition of an experiment, there could be numerous complex activities in real life with respect to its various background and contexts: time, space, age, culture, and so on. Recognizing these complex activities with limited low-power sensors, considering the power and memory constraints of the wearable environment and the user’s obtrusiveness at once is not an easy problem, although it is very crucial for the activity recognizer to be practically useful. In this paper, we recognize activity of eating, which is one of the most typical examples of a complex activity, using only daily low-power mobile and wearable sensors. To organize the related contexts systemically, we have constructed the context model based on activity theory and the “Five W’s”, and propose a Bayesian network with 88 nodes to predict uncertain contexts probabilistically. The structure of the proposed Bayesian network is designed by a modular and tree-structured approach to reduce the time complexity and increase the scalability. To evaluate the proposed method, we collected the data with 10 different activities from 25 volunteers of various ages, occupations, and jobs, and have obtained 79.71% accuracy, which outperforms other conventional classifiers by 7.54–14.4%. Analyses of the results showed that our probabilistic approach could also give approximate results even when one of contexts or sensor values has a very heterogeneous pattern or is missing. PMID:29232937

Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

CERN Document Server

Groer, Peter G

2002-01-01

We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...

Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

2014-01-01

This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...

Efficacy of tofacitinib monotherapy in methotrexate-naive patients with early or established rheumatoid arthritis

OpenAIRE

Fleischmann, Roy M; Huizinga, Tom W J; Kavanaugh, Arthur F; Wilkinson, Bethanie; Kwok, Kenneth; DeMasi, Ryan; van Vollenhoven, Ronald F

2016-01-01

Introduction Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Tofacitinib monotherapy was previously shown to inhibit structural damage, reduce clinical signs and symptoms of RA, and improve physical functioning over 24?months in methotrexate (MTX)-naive adult patients with RA. In this post hoc analysis, we compared efficacy and safety of tofacitinib in patients with early (disease duration

BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

A Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Al Lozi, Rawan; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O; Bradley, Jeffrey D; El Naqa, Issam

2011-01-01

Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins' role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which comprises clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogeneous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients.

Magnetic resonance imaging-guided biopsies may improve diagnosis in biopsy-naive men with suspicion of prostate cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winther, Mads Dochedahl; Balslev, Ingegerd; Boesen, Lars

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this pilot study was to investigate whether a short prostate biparametric magnetic resonance imaging (bp-MRI) protocol provides a valuable diagnostic addition for biopsy guidance in biopsy-naive men with a suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS: A total of 62...... biopsy-naive patients referred to a systematic transrectal ultrasound biopsy (TRUS-bx) due to suspicion of PCa were prospectively enrolled. Bp-MRI was performed before biopsy. All lesions were scored according to the modified Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) version 2. All patients...... underwent TRUS-bx followed by bp-MRI-guided biopsies (bp-MRI-bx) under MRI/TRUS image fusion from any bp-MRI suspicious lesions not obviously targeted by TRUS-bx. RESULTS: PCa was found in 42 (68%) and 32 (52%) patients by TRUS-bx and bp-MRI-bx, respectively. Bp-MRI-bx de-tected PCa in one patient who had...

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

Baseline and cognition activated regional cerebral brain flow of naive paranoid schizophrenics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Huafang; Gu Niufan; Xiu Yan; Chen Shaoliang

2002-01-01

Objective: To investigate the baseline and cognition activated regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in naive paranoid schizophrenics and the relationships between the symptoms and rCBF. Methods: The scale of positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS) was adopted to evaluate the symptoms of schizophrenia. The baseline and cognition activated 99 Tc m -ethylcysteinate dimmer (ECD) SPECT were performed one after the other within two days. Wisconsin card sorting test (WCST) was used as cognitive task. Semi-quantitative analyses were applied. Results: There were no significant differences of WCST results between two groups. Compared with normal controls, the baseline rCBF ratios of left to right interior posterior temporal cortex in patients were significantly higher, while that of left mid-medial frontal cortex was significantly lower in patients. There was no significant difference of rCBF ratios of baseline to cognition activated states in patients. WCST couldn't activate the frontal function in patients. The total score of PANSS, score of positive subscale and general syndrome subscale were correlated with the rCBF ratio of several regions of interest (ROIs) . Some symptoms were correlated with the rCBF ratio of some ROIs. Conclusions: The hyperperfusion of left and right temporal inferior posterior cortex and hypoperfusion of left mid-medial frontal cortex could be seen in naive paranoid schizophrenics. Hypofrontality existed in patients before treatment. Some positive symptoms were correlated with the rCBF of some ROI

Predicting ecstasy use among young people at risk: a prospective study of initially ecstasy-naive subjects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vervaeke, Hylke K. E.; Benschop, Annemieke; van den Brink, Wim; Korf, Dirk J.

2008-01-01

Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged > or = 18 who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy

A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01