Sample records for PREVISIONS (forecasting)
from WorldWideScience.org

Sample records 1 - 18 shown.



1

La prévision hydro-météorologique à 3-6 mois. Etat des connaissances et applications

Sauquet, E.; Lerat, J.; Prudhomme, C.

This study focuses on the methodology and tools used in seasonal forecasting of river flows. After a brief state of the art, two applications for predicting low flows of French rivers are presented. The first one aims at forecasting the probability of occurrence of severe droughts using weather typi...

DRIVER (French)

2

La prévision des précipitations par recherche d'analogues : état de l'art et perspectives

Ben Daoud, A.; Sauquet, E.; Lang, M.; Obled, C.; Bontron, G.

Precipitation forecasting based on an adaptation of model outputs through an analog sorting technique has been improved for around ten years. The method runs operationally in several French institutions. First, this short paper presents the state of the art of this approach and the more recent devel...

DRIVER (French)

4

Using sickness absence records to predict future depression in a working population: prospective findings from the GAZEL cohort

Melchior, M; Ferrie, JE; Alexanderson, K; Goldberg, M; Kivimaki, M; Singh-Manoux, A; Vahtera, J; Westerlund, H; Zins, M

OBJECTIVES: We tested the hypothesis that sickness absence from work predicts workers' risk of later depression. METHODS: Study participants (n = 7391) belonged to the French GAZEL cohort of employees of the national gas and electricity company. Sickness absence data (1996-1999) were obtained from c...

DRIVER (French)

5

Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficits. The case of France

Moulin, Laurent; Salto, Matteo; Silvestrini, Andrea; Veredas, David

We develop a methodology for using intra-annual data to forecast annual budget deficits. Our approach aims at improving the accuracy of the deficit forecasts, a relevant issue to policy makers in the Eurozone and at proposing a replicable methodology using at best public quantitative information on ...

DRIVER (French)

7

Teachers' training, class size and students' outcomes: learning from administrative forecasting mistakes

Bressoux, Pascal; Kramarz, Francis; Prost, Corinne

This paper studies the impact of different teacher and class characteristics on third graders' outcomes. It uses a feature of the French system in which some novice teachers start their jobs before receiving any training. Three categories of teachers are included in the sample: experienced teachers,...

DRIVER (French)

9

Rapport de mission


L'Oxford Economic Forecasting Group ayant estimé entre 1% et 6% la perte du PIB causée par une prochaine pandémie grippale dans le monde, par analogie et en rapportant -rapidement et grossièrement - ces chiffres à l'île de la Réunion dont le PIB était de 9317 millions d'euro en 2004, l'épidémie actuelle ...

Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (French)

10

Proceedings

Yeh, Gar-on, Anthony

DRIVER (French)

11

Intérêt de la connaissance des processus sédimentaires actuels sur la facade atlantique du plateau continental francais pour le contrôle des rejets industriels Interest of current sedimentary processes knowledge on the French Atlantic continental shelf for the control of industrial waste

Auffret Gérard-andré; Berthois L.; Allen G. P.; Douville J. L.

The conditions of sediments transfert from a river medium to a sea medium may be used as guide for forecasting the industrial effluents diffusion. The investigation on river suspensions carried down to the sea shows that clay is the essential component, the maximum size of suspensed particles transf...

DRIVER (French)

12
13

Forecasting the electricity consumption by aggregating specialized experts; a review of the sequential aggregation of specialized experts, with an application to Slovakian and French country-wide one-day-ahead (half-)hourly predictions

Devaine, Marie; Goude, Yannig; Stoltz, Gilles

We consider a variant of the sequential prediction of arbitrary sequences based on experts advice, called prediction with specialized experts. We design aggregation rules, that sequentially combine the forecasts provided by the experts; the latter are specialized and need not output a prediction at ...

DRIVER (French)

14

Evaluation of a conceptual rainfall forecasting model from observed and simulated rain events

Dolciné, L.; Andrieu, H.; French, M. N.

Very short-term rainfall forecasting models designed for runoff analysis of catchments, particularly those subject to flash-floods, typically include one or more variables deduced from weather radars. Useful variables for defining the state and evolution of a rain system include rainfall rate, verti...

DRIVER (French)

15

Comparison of the performance and reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models driven by ECMWF rainfall ensemble forecasts: a case study on 29 French catchments

Velazquez, J.A.; Anctil, F.; Ramos, M.H.; Perrin, C.

An ensemble forecasting system seeks to assess and to communicate the uncertainty of hydrological predictions by proposing, at each time step, an ensemble of forecasts from which one can estimate the probability distribution of the predictant (the probabilistic forecast), in contrast with a single e...

DRIVER (French)

16

Comparison of the performance and reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models driven by ECMWF rainfall ensemble forecasts: a case study on 29 French catchments

Velazquez, J.A.; Anctil, F.; Ramos, M.H.; Perrin, C.

An ensemble forecasting system seeks to assess and to communicate the uncertainty of hydrological predictions by proposing, at each time step, an ensemble of forecasts from which one can estimate the probability distribution of the predictant (the probabilistic forecast), in contrast with a single e...

DRIVER (French)

17

Assessing the impact of updating approaches of the performances on a real-time flood forecasting model: a study on 178 French catchments

Berthet, L.; Andréassian, V.; Perrin, C.

We present the comparison of performances obtained by a real-time operational rainfall-runoff model running with different updating methods based on the assimilation of past observed streamflow data. The tested updating techniques are: (i) direct state updating, (ii) parameter updating and (iii) out...

DRIVER (French)

18

An Hourly Periodic State Space Model for Modelling French National Electricity Load

Dordonnat, V.; Koopman, S.J.; Ooms, M.; Dessertaine, A.; Collet, J.

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for each...

DRIVER (French)