Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Halidi Lyeme
2017-11-01
Full Text Available In this study, a sensitivity analysis of a multi-objective optimization model for solid waste management (SWM for Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania is considered. Our objectives were to identify the most sensitive parameters and effect of other input data to the model output. Five scenarios were considered by varying their associated parameter values. The results showed that the decrease of total cost for the SWM system in all scenarios was observed compared to the baseline solution when the single landfill was considered. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the variable cost parameter for the processing facilities is very sensitivity in such a way that if you increase the variable cost then, there is a rapid increase of total cost for the SWM system and the vice versa is true. The relevant suggestions to the decision makers were also discussed.
Tahmasbi, Vahid; Ghoreishi, Majid; Zolfaghari, Mojtaba
2017-11-01
The bone drilling process is very prominent in orthopedic surgeries and in the repair of bone fractures. It is also very common in dentistry and bone sampling operations. Due to the complexity of bone and the sensitivity of the process, bone drilling is one of the most important and sensitive processes in biomedical engineering. Orthopedic surgeries can be improved using robotic systems and mechatronic tools. The most crucial problem during drilling is an unwanted increase in process temperature (higher than 47 °C), which causes thermal osteonecrosis or cell death and local burning of the bone tissue. Moreover, imposing higher forces to the bone may lead to breaking or cracking and consequently cause serious damage. In this study, a mathematical second-order linear regression model as a function of tool drilling speed, feed rate, tool diameter, and their effective interactions is introduced to predict temperature and force during the bone drilling process. This model can determine the maximum speed of surgery that remains within an acceptable temperature range. Moreover, for the first time, using designed experiments, the bone drilling process was modeled, and the drilling speed, feed rate, and tool diameter were optimized. Then, using response surface methodology and applying a multi-objective optimization, drilling force was minimized to sustain an acceptable temperature range without damaging the bone or the surrounding tissue. In addition, for the first time, Sobol statistical sensitivity analysis is used to ascertain the effect of process input parameters on process temperature and force. The results show that among all effective input parameters, tool rotational speed, feed rate, and tool diameter have the highest influence on process temperature and force, respectively. The behavior of each output parameters with variation in each input parameter is further investigated. Finally, a multi-objective optimization has been performed considering all the
A Novel Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Regression Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhiming Song
2015-01-01
Full Text Available As is known, the Pareto set of a continuous multiobjective optimization problem with m objective functions is a piecewise continuous (m-1-dimensional manifold in the decision space under some mild conditions. However, how to utilize the regularity to design multiobjective optimization algorithms has become the research focus. In this paper, based on this regularity, a model-based multiobjective evolutionary algorithm with regression analysis (MMEA-RA is put forward to solve continuous multiobjective optimization problems with variable linkages. In the algorithm, the optimization problem is modelled as a promising area in the decision space by a probability distribution, and the centroid of the probability distribution is (m-1-dimensional piecewise continuous manifold. The least squares method is used to construct such a model. A selection strategy based on the nondominated sorting is used to choose the individuals to the next generation. The new algorithm is tested and compared with NSGA-II and RM-MEDA. The result shows that MMEA-RA outperforms RM-MEDA and NSGA-II on the test instances with variable linkages. At the same time, MMEA-RA has higher efficiency than the other two algorithms. A few shortcomings of MMEA-RA have also been identified and discussed in this paper.
2010-01-01
al., 2005]), or on systems where only one output at a time is considered (e.g., [ Sobol , 2001; Helton and Davis, 2003]). Moreover, most of the...Structure Obtained by a System Decomposition Method,” AIAA Journal, 29(2), pp. 264-270. [69] Sobol , I. M., 2001, “Global Sensitivity Indices for
... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003741.htm Sensitivity analysis To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Sensitivity analysis determines the effectiveness of antibiotics against microorganisms (germs) ...
Multiobjective Control for Multivariable Systems with Mixed-sensitivity Specifications
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stoustrup, Jakob; Niemann, H.H.
1997-01-01
A series of multi objective H-infinity design problems are considered in this paper. The problems are formulated as a number of coupled H-infinity design problems. These H-infinity problems can be formulated as sensitivity problems, complementary sensitivity problems, or control sensitivity...... problems for every output (or input) in the system. It turns out that these multi objective H-infinity design problems, based on a number of different types of sensitivity problems, can be exactly decoupled into k H-infinity sensitivity problems for stable systems, where k is the number of outputs (for...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. García
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We analyse the sensitivity of differential programs of the form subject to where and are maps whose respective images lie in ordered Banach spaces. Following previous works on multiobjective programming, the notion of -optimal solution is used. The behaviour of some nonsingleton sets of -optimal solutions according to changes of the parameter in the problem is analysed. The main result of the work states that the sensitivity of the program is measured by a Lagrange multiplier plus a projection of its derivative. This sensitivity is measured by means of the paratingent derivative.
Multiobjective programming and planning
Cohon, Jared L
2004-01-01
This text takes a broad view of multiobjective programming, emphasizing the methods most useful for continuous problems. It reviews multiobjective programming methods in the context of public decision-making problems, developing each problem within a context that addresses practical aspects of planning issues. Topics include a review of linear programming, the formulation of the general multiobjective programming problem, classification of multiobjective programming methods, techniques for generating noninferior solutions, multiple-decision-making methods, multiobjective analysis of water reso
Ning, Guobao; Zhen, Zijian; Wang, Peng; Li, Yang; Yin, Huaixian
2012-01-01
This paper presents an economic analysis model on value chain of taxi fleet with battery-swapping mode in a pilot city. In the model, economic benefits of charging-swapping station group, taxi company, and taxi driver in the region have been taken into consideration. Thus, the model is a multiobjective function and multiobjective genetic algorithm is used to solve this problem. According to the real data collected from the pilot city, the multiobjective genetic algorithm is tested as an effec...
Tydrichova, Magdalena
2017-01-01
In this project, various available multi-objective optimization evolutionary algorithms were compared considering their performance and distribution of solutions. The main goal was to select the most suitable algorithms for applications in cancer hadron therapy planning. For our purposes, a complex testing and analysis software was developed. Also, many conclusions and hypothesis have been done for the further research.
Aerodynamic multi-objective integrated optimization based on principal component analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiangtao HUANG
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Based on improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO algorithm with principal component analysis (PCA methodology, an efficient high-dimension multi-objective optimization method is proposed, which, as the purpose of this paper, aims to improve the convergence of Pareto front in multi-objective optimization design. The mathematical efficiency, the physical reasonableness and the reliability in dealing with redundant objectives of PCA are verified by typical DTLZ5 test function and multi-objective correlation analysis of supercritical airfoil, and the proposed method is integrated into aircraft multi-disciplinary design (AMDEsign platform, which contains aerodynamics, stealth and structure weight analysis and optimization module. Then the proposed method is used for the multi-point integrated aerodynamic optimization of a wide-body passenger aircraft, in which the redundant objectives identified by PCA are transformed to optimization constraints, and several design methods are compared. The design results illustrate that the strategy used in this paper is sufficient and multi-point design requirements of the passenger aircraft are reached. The visualization level of non-dominant Pareto set is improved by effectively reducing the dimension without losing the primary feature of the problem.
Multi-Objective Sensitivity Analyses for Power Generation Mix: Malaysia Case Study
Siti Mariam Mohd Shokri; Nofri Yenita Dahlan; Hasmaini Mohamad
2017-01-01
This paper presents an optimization framework to determine long-term optimal generation mix for Malaysia Power Sector using Dynamic Programming (DP) technique. Several new candidate units with a pre-defined MW capacity were included in the model for generation expansion planning from coal, natural gas, hydro and renewable energy (RE). Four objective cases were considered, 1) economic cost, 2) environmental, 3) reliability and 4) multi-objectives that combining the three cases. Results show th...
Multiobjective flux balancing using the NISE method for metabolic network analysis.
Oh, Young-Gyun; Lee, Dong-Yup; Lee, Sang Yup; Park, Sunwon
2009-01-01
Flux balance analysis (FBA) is well acknowledged as an analysis tool of metabolic networks in the framework of metabolic engineering. However, FBA has a limitation for solving a multiobjective optimization problem which considers multiple conflicting objectives. In this study, we propose a novel multiobjective flux balance analysis method, which adapts the noninferior set estimation (NISE) method (Solanki et al., 1993) for multiobjective linear programming (MOLP) problems. NISE method can generate an approximation of the Pareto curve for conflicting objectives without redundant iterations of single objective optimization. Furthermore, the flux distributions at each Pareto optimal solution can be obtained for understanding the internal flux changes in the metabolic network. The functionality of this approach is shown by applying it to a genome-scale in silico model of E. coli. Multiple objectives for the poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) [P(3HB)] production are considered simultaneously, and relationships among them are identified. The Pareto curve for maximizing succinic acid production vs. maximizing biomass production is used for the in silico analysis of various combinatorial knockout strains. This proposed method accelerates the strain improvement in the metabolic engineering by reducing computation time of obtaining the Pareto curve and analysis time of flux distribution at each Pareto optimal solution. (c) 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 2009.
Level Diagrams analysis of Pareto Front for multiobjective system redundancy allocation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zio, E.; Bazzo, R.
2011-01-01
Reliability-based and risk-informed design, operation, maintenance and regulation lead to multiobjective (multicriteria) optimization problems. In this context, the Pareto Front and Set found in a multiobjective optimality search provide a family of solutions among which the decision maker has to look for the best choice according to his or her preferences. Efficient visualization techniques for Pareto Front and Set analyses are needed for helping decision makers in the selection task. In this paper, we consider the multiobjective optimization of system redundancy allocation and use the recently introduced Level Diagrams technique for graphically representing the resulting Pareto Front and Set. Each objective and decision variable is represented on separate diagrams where the points of the Pareto Front and Set are positioned according to their proximity to ideally optimal points, as measured by a metric of normalized objective values. All diagrams are synchronized across all objectives and decision variables. On the basis of the analysis of the Level Diagrams, we introduce a procedure for reducing the number of solutions in the Pareto Front; from the reduced set of solutions, the decision maker can more easily identify his or her preferred solution.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Prabhu
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Carbon nanotube (CNT mixed grinding wheel has been used in the electrolytic in-process dressing (ELID grinding process to analyze the surface characteristics of AISI D2 Tool steel material. CNT grinding wheel is having an excellent thermal conductivity and good mechanical property which is used to improve the surface finish of the work piece. The multiobjective optimization of grey relational analysis coupled with principal component analysis has been used to optimize the process parameters of ELID grinding process. Based on the Taguchi design of experiments, an L9 orthogonal array table was chosen for the experiments. The confirmation experiment verifies the proposed that grey-based Taguchi method has the ability to find out the optimal process parameters with multiple quality characteristics of surface roughness and metal removal rate. Analysis of variance (ANOVA has been used to verify and validate the model. Empirical model for the prediction of output parameters has been developed using regression analysis and the results were compared for with and without using CNT grinding wheel in ELID grinding process.
Multi-objective experimental design for (13)C-based metabolic flux analysis.
Bouvin, Jeroen; Cajot, Simon; D'Huys, Pieter-Jan; Ampofo-Asiama, Jerry; Anné, Jozef; Van Impe, Jan; Geeraerd, Annemie; Bernaerts, Kristel
2015-10-01
(13)C-based metabolic flux analysis is an excellent technique to resolve fluxes in the central carbon metabolism but costs can be significant when using specialized tracers. This work presents a framework for cost-effective design of (13)C-tracer experiments, illustrated on two different networks. Linear and non-linear optimal input mixtures are computed for networks for Streptomyces lividans and a carcinoma cell line. If only glucose tracers are considered as labeled substrate for a carcinoma cell line or S. lividans, the best parameter estimation accuracy is obtained by mixtures containing high amounts of 1,2-(13)C2 glucose combined with uniformly labeled glucose. Experimental designs are evaluated based on a linear (D-criterion) and non-linear approach (S-criterion). Both approaches generate almost the same input mixture, however, the linear approach is favored due to its low computational effort. The high amount of 1,2-(13)C2 glucose in the optimal designs coincides with a high experimental cost, which is further enhanced when labeling is introduced in glutamine and aspartate tracers. Multi-objective optimization gives the possibility to assess experimental quality and cost at the same time and can reveal excellent compromise experiments. For example, the combination of 100% 1,2-(13)C2 glucose with 100% position one labeled glutamine and the combination of 100% 1,2-(13)C2 glucose with 100% uniformly labeled glutamine perform equally well for the carcinoma cell line, but the first mixture offers a decrease in cost of $ 120 per ml-scale cell culture experiment. We demonstrated the validity of a multi-objective linear approach to perform optimal experimental designs for the non-linear problem of (13)C-metabolic flux analysis. Tools and a workflow are provided to perform multi-objective design. The effortless calculation of the D-criterion can be exploited to perform high-throughput screening of possible (13)C-tracers, while the illustrated benefit of multi-objective
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael
2005-01-01
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lu, Hai; Yu, Zitao; Alanne, Kari; Xu, Xu; Fan, Liwu; Yu, Han; Zhang, Liang; Martinac, Ivo
2014-01-01
Highlights: • A time-effective multi-objective design optimization scheme is proposed. • The scheme aims at exploring suitable 3E energy system for the specific case. • A realistic case located in China is used for the analysis. • Parametric study is investigated to test the effects of different parameters. - Abstract: Due to the increasing energy demands and global warming, energy quality management (EQM) for districts has been getting importance over the last few decades. The evaluation of the optimum energy systems for specific districts is an essential part of EQM. This paper presents a deep analysis of the optimum energy systems for a district sited in China. A multi-objective optimization approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed for the analysis. The optimization process aims to search for the suitable 3E (minimum economic cost and environmental burden as well as maximum efficiency) energy systems. Here, life cycle CO 2 equivalent (LCCO 2 ), life cycle cost (LCC) and exergy efficiency (EE) are set as optimization objectives. Then, the optimum energy systems for the Chinese case are presented. The final work is to investigate the effects of different energy parameters. The results show the optimum energy systems might vary significantly depending on some parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Patricia Jaramillo A Liliana Vinasco T
2005-01-01
This paper presents a methodological proposal that is developed to identify corridors for lineal projects (highways, transmission lines, pipelines, etc), with environmental management criteria, when there is not complete information about the area of influence of the project, or some of the information is imprecise. Also a computational module is developed that allow the use of the methodological proposal. The proposal is based in the fuzzy multiobjective analysis concept, which takes elements of the diffuse logic and the traditional Multiobjective Analysis; the first one, it conserves its properties with imprecise information and of the second allows, the minimization of multiple objective correspond to the least environmental the physical, biological, cultural, economical and political dimensions of the environment uses the Geographic Information SIG this proposal is being constituted a complete tool for taking decisions in which space attributed is included. The FMA is a recent technique that is in development [S integration to GIS is stiller. The proposal is a contribution to the construction of a conceptual scheme for future applications in this aspects constitute a tool for the environmental planning which decreasing the risks, future cost analysis of natural resources and human group
Multiphysics field analysis and multiobjective design optimization: a benchmark problem
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
di Barba, P.; Doležel, Ivo; Karban, P.; Kůs, P.; Mach, F.; Mognaschi, M. E.; Savini, A.
2014-01-01
Roč. 22, č. 7 (2014), s. 1214-1225 ISSN 1741-5977 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP102/11/0498 Institutional support: RVO:61388998 Keywords : coupled-field problems * finite-element analysis * hp-FEM adaptation Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering Impact factor: 0.868, year: 2014
Multi-objective optimization of GPU3 Stirling engine using third order analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toghyani, Somayeh; Kasaeian, Alibakhsh; Hashemabadi, Seyyed Hasan; Salimi, Morteza
2014-01-01
Highlights: • A third-order analysis is carried out for optimization of Stirling engine. • The triple-optimization is done on a GPU3 Stirling engine. • A multi-objective optimization is carried out for a Stirling engine. • The results are compared with an experimental previous work for checking the model improvement. • The methods of TOPSIS, Fuzzy, and LINMAP are compared with each other in aspect of optimization. - Abstract: Stirling engine is an external combustion engine that uses any external heat source to generate mechanical power which operates at closed cycles. These engines are good choices for using in power generation systems; because these engines present a reasonable theoretical efficiency which can be closer to the Carnot efficiency, comparing with other reciprocating thermal engines. Hence, many studies have been conducted on Stirling engines and the third order thermodynamic analysis is one of them. In this study, multi-objective optimization with four decision variables including the temperature of heat source, stroke, mean effective pressure, and the engine frequency were applied in order to increase the efficiency and output power and reduce the pressure drop. Three decision-making procedures were applied to optimize the answers from the results. At last, the applied methods were compared with the results obtained of one experimental work and a good agreement was observed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guobao Ning
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an economic analysis model on value chain of taxi fleet with battery-swapping mode in a pilot city. In the model, economic benefits of charging-swapping station group, taxi company, and taxi driver in the region have been taken into consideration. Thus, the model is a multiobjective function and multiobjective genetic algorithm is used to solve this problem. According to the real data collected from the pilot city, the multiobjective genetic algorithm is tested as an effective method to solve this problem. Furthermore, the effects of price of electricity, price of battery package, life cycle of battery package, cost of battery-swapping devices and infrastructure, and driving mileage per day on the benefits of value holders are analyzed, which provide theoretical and practical reference for the deployment of electric vehicles, for the national subsidy criteria adjusment, technological innovation instruction, commercial mode selection, and infrastructure construction.
Comprehensive benefit analysis of regional water resources based on multi-objective evaluation
Chi, Yixia; Xue, Lianqing; Zhang, Hui
2018-01-01
The purpose of the water resources comprehensive benefits analysis is to maximize the comprehensive benefits on the aspects of social, economic and ecological environment. Aiming at the defects of the traditional analytic hierarchy process in the evaluation of water resources, it proposed a comprehensive benefit evaluation of social, economic and environmental benefits index from the perspective of water resources comprehensive benefit in the social system, economic system and environmental system; determined the index weight by the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), calculated the relative index of water resources comprehensive benefit and analyzed the comprehensive benefit of water resources in Xiangshui County by the multi-objective evaluation model. Based on the water resources data in Xiangshui County, 20 main comprehensive benefit assessment factors of 5 districts belonged to Xiangshui County were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive benefit of Xiangshui County was 0.7317, meanwhile the social economy has a further development space in the current situation of water resources.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iulian N. BUJOREANU
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis represents such a well known and deeply analyzed subject that anyone to enter the field feels like not being able to add anything new. Still, there are so many facets to be taken into consideration.The paper introduces the reader to the various ways sensitivity analysis is implemented and the reasons for which it has to be implemented in most analyses in the decision making processes. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and is presented at the beginning of the paper as the initial cause to implement sensitivity analysis. Different views and approaches are added during the discussion about sensitivity analysis so that the reader develops an as thoroughly as possible opinion on the use and UTILITY of the sensitivity analysis. Finally, a round-up conclusion brings us to the question of the possibility of generating the future and analyzing it before it unfolds so that, when it happens it brings less uncertainty.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sadeghi, Mohsen; Mahmoudi, S.M.S.; Khoshbakhti Saray, R.
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Ejector refrigeration systems powered by HCCI engine is proposed. • A new two-dimensional model is developed for the ejector. • Multi-objective optimization is performed for the proposed system. • Pareto frontier is plotted for multi-objective optimization. - Abstract: Ejector refrigeration systems powered by low-grade heat sources have been an attractive research subject for a lot of researchers. In the present work the waste heat from exhaust gases of a HCCI (homogeneous charge compression ignition) engine is utilized to drive the ejector refrigeration system. Considering the frictional effects on the ejector wall, a new two-dimensional model is developed for the ejector. Energy, exergy and exergoeconomic analysis performed for the proposed system using the MATLAB software. In addition, considering the exergy efficiency and the product unit cost of the system as objective functions, a multi-objective optimization is performed for the system to find the optimum design variables including the generator, condenser and evaporator temperatures. The product unit cost is minimized while the exergy efficiency is maximized using the genetic algorithm. The optimization results are obtained as a set of optimal points and the Pareto frontier is plotted for multi-objective optimization. The results of the optimization show that ejector refrigeration cycle is operating at optimum state based on exergy efficiency and product unit cost when generator, condenser and evaporator work at 94.54 °C, 33.44 °C and 0.03 °C, respectively
Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.
Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J
2016-05-01
Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Anderson, John
1998-01-01
...) and AFIT MXTOOLS toolboxes were used to produce the optimal, multiobjective designs. These designs were implemented for flight test on the Calspan VSS I Learjet, simulating the unstable longitudinal dynamics of an F-16 type aircraft...
An experimental analysis of design choices of multi-objective ant colony optimization algorithms
Lopez-Ibanez, Manuel; Stutzle, Thomas
2012-01-01
There have been several proposals on how to apply the ant colony optimization (ACO) metaheuristic to multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems (MOCOPs). This paper proposes a new formulation of these multi-objective ant colony optimization (MOACO) algorithms. This formulation is based on adding specific algorithm components for tackling multiple objectives to the basic ACO metaheuristic. Examples of these components are how to represent multiple objectives using pheromone and heuris...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Prashant J. Patil
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Close tolerance and good surface finish are achieved by means of grinding process. This study was carried out for multi-objective optimization of MQL grinding process parameters. Water based Al2O3 and CuO nanofluids of various concentrations are used as lubricant for MQL system. Grinding experiments were carried out on instrumented surface grinding machine. For experimentation purpose Taguchi's method was used. Important process parameters that affect the G ratio and surface finish in MQL grinding are depth of cut, type of lubricant, feed rate, grinding wheel speed, coolant flow rate, and nanoparticle size. Grinding performance was calculated by the measurement G ratio and surface finish. For improvement of grinding process a multi-objective process parameter optimization is performed by use of Taguchi based grey relational analysis. To identify most significant factor of process analysis of variance (ANOVA has been used.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dmitrii Vital'evich Panov
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The article is devoted to the comparative multiobjective analysis of complicated technical and social systems in terms of economics and management. The difficulty of carrying out such comparison is determined by multidimensionality of the target application, diversity and qualitative variety of separate system elements, dissimilarity of technological conditions, under which they are created, and analogues used for the comparison. It is not about choosing the one “best” solution out of several alternatives, how it is required having the traditional optimization task setting, but about the comparison of home object to its analogues. Usually the purpose of such comparison consists in the assessment of its comparative objective efficiency. However, the object compared is the product of the respective technological chain. The resources used to create the object and analogues compared are always different as well as technologies used to transform resources to end products. It is the reason for the new problem to assess the management quality of own object creation as compared to the analogues. Objectives. The purpose is the development of effective approaches to the management quality assessment of complicated technical and social systems creation. Four multiobjective tasks of integral assessment are considered to solve the stated problem: objective efficiency assessment, assessment of all kinds of resources used, applied technology assessment and finally three-objective task to assess the management quality of object creation with assessed objective efficiency by using stated resources and technologies. The last task implies achievement of the highest objective efficiency with the use of less resource and less sophisticated technology that points at the higher management level. The stated task pertains to the class of multiobjective decision making where alternatives are distinguished by partial criteria and depend on the range of uncertain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eini, Saeed; Shahhosseini, Hamidreza; Delgarm, Navid; Lee, Moonyong; Bahadori, Alireza
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A multi-objective optimization is performed for a cascade refrigeration cycle. • The optimization problem considers inherently safe design as well as 3E analysis. • As a measure of inherent safety level a quantitative risk analysis is utilized. • A CO 2 /NH 3 cascade refrigeration system is compared with a CO 2 /C 3 H 8 system. - Abstract: Inherently safer design is the new approach to maximize the overall safety of a process plant. This approach suggests some risk reduction strategies to be implemented in the early stages of design. In this paper a multi-objective optimization was performed considering economic, exergetic, and environmental aspects besides evaluation of the inherent safety level of a cascade refrigeration system. The capital costs, the processing costs, and the social cost due to CO 2 emission were considered to be included in the economic objective function. Exergetic efficiency of the plant was considered as the second objective function. As a measure of inherent safety level, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) was performed to calculate total risk level of the cascade as the third objective function. Two cases (ammonia and propane) were considered to be compared as the refrigerant of the high temperature circuit. The achieved optimum solutions from the multi–objective optimization process were given as Pareto frontier. The ultimate optimal solution from available solutions on the Pareto optimal curve was selected using Decision-Makings approaches. NSGA-II algorithm was used to obtain Pareto optimal frontiers. Also, three decision-making approaches (TOPSIS, LINMAP, and Shannon’s entropy methods) were utilized to select the final optimum point. Considering continuous material release from the major equipment in the plant, flash and jet fire scenarios were considered for the CO 2 /C 3 H 8 cycle and toxic hazards were considered for the CO 2 /NH 3 cycle. The results showed no significant differences between CO 2 /NH 3 and
Interference and Sensitivity Analysis.
VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Halloran, M Elizabeth
2014-11-01
Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper we briefly review the literature on causal inference in the presence of interference when treatments have been randomized. We then consider settings in which causal effects in the presence of interference are not identified, either because randomization alone does not suffice for identification, or because treatment is not randomized and there may be unmeasured confounders of the treatment-outcome relationship. We develop sensitivity analysis techniques for these settings. We describe several sensitivity analysis techniques for the infectiousness effect which, in a vaccine trial, captures the effect of the vaccine of one person on protecting a second person from infection even if the first is infected. We also develop two sensitivity analysis techniques for causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding which generalize analogous techniques when interference is absent. These two techniques for unmeasured confounding are compared and contrasted.
Multi-objective Analysis for a Sequencing Planning of Mixed-model Assembly Line
Shimizu, Yoshiaki; Waki, Toshiya; Yoo, Jae Kyu
Diversified customer demands are raising importance of just-in-time and agile manufacturing much more than before. Accordingly, introduction of mixed-model assembly lines becomes popular to realize the small-lot-multi-kinds production. Since it produces various kinds on the same assembly line, a rational management is of special importance. With this point of view, this study focuses on a sequencing problem of mixed-model assembly line including a paint line as its preceding process. By taking into account the paint line together, reducing work-in-process (WIP) inventory between these heterogeneous lines becomes a major concern of the sequencing problem besides improving production efficiency. Finally, we have formulated the sequencing problem as a bi-objective optimization problem to prevent various line stoppages, and to reduce the volume of WIP inventory simultaneously. Then we have proposed a practical method for the multi-objective analysis. For this purpose, we applied the weighting method to derive the Pareto front. Actually, the resulting problem is solved by a meta-heuristic method like SA (Simulated Annealing). Through numerical experiments, we verified the validity of the proposed approach, and discussed the significance of trade-off analysis between the conflicting objectives.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Daróczy, László; Janiga, Gábor; Thévenin, Dominique
2014-01-01
A two-dimensional cross-flow tube bank heat exchanger arrangement problem with internal laminar flow is considered in this work. The objective is to optimize the arrangement of tubes and find the most favorable geometries, in order to simultaneously maximize the rate of heat exchange while obtaining a minimum pressure loss. A systematic study was performed involving a large number of simulations. The global optimization method NSGA-II was retained. A fully automatized in-house optimization environment was used to solve the problem, including mesh generation and CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations. The optimization was performed in parallel on a Linux cluster with a very good speed-up. The main purpose of this article is to illustrate and analyze a heat exchanger arrangement problem in its most general form and to provide a fundamental understanding of the structure of the Pareto front and optimal geometries. The considered conditions are particularly suited for low-power applications, as found in a growing number of practical systems in an effort toward increasing energy efficiency. For such a detailed analysis with more than 140 000 CFD-based evaluations, a design-of-experiment study involving a response surface would not be sufficient. Instead, all evaluations rely on a direct solution using a CFD solver. - Highlights: • Cross-flow tube bank heat exchanger arrangement problem. • A fully automatized multi-objective optimization based on genetic algorithm. • A systematic study involving a large number of CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amine Ghozlane
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Trypanosoma brucei is a protozoan parasite of major of interest in discovering new genes for drug targets. This parasite alternates its life cycle between the mammal host(s (bloodstream form and the insect vector (procyclic form, with two divergent glucose metabolism amenable to in vitro culture. While the metabolic network of the bloodstream forms has been well characterized, the flux distribution between the different branches of the glucose metabolic network in the procyclic form has not been addressed so far. We present a computational analysis (called Metaboflux that exploits the metabolic topology of the procyclic form, and allows the incorporation of multipurpose experimental data to increase the biological relevance of the model. The alternatives resulting from the structural complexity of networks are formulated as an optimization problem solved by a metaheuristic where experimental data are modeled in a multiobjective function. Our results show that the current metabolic model is in agreement with experimental data and confirms the observed high metabolic flexibility of glucose metabolism. In addition, Metaboflux offers a rational explanation for the high flexibility in the ratio between final products from glucose metabolism, thsat is, flux redistribution through the malic enzyme steps.
Multi-objective game-theory models for conflict analysis in reservoir watershed management.
Lee, Chih-Sheng
2012-05-01
This study focuses on the development of a multi-objective game-theory model (MOGM) for balancing economic and environmental concerns in reservoir watershed management and for assistance in decision. Game theory is used as an alternative tool for analyzing strategic interaction between economic development (land use and development) and environmental protection (water-quality protection and eutrophication control). Geographic information system is used to concisely illustrate and calculate the areas of various land use types. The MOGM methodology is illustrated in a case study of multi-objective watershed management in the Tseng-Wen reservoir, Taiwan. The innovation and advantages of MOGM can be seen in the results, which balance economic and environmental concerns in watershed management and which can be interpreted easily by decision makers. For comparison, the decision-making process using conventional multi-objective method to produce many alternatives was found to be more difficult. Copyright Â© 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lund, Henrik; Sorknæs, Peter; Mathiesen, Brian Vad
2018-01-01
of electricity, which have been introduced in recent decades. These uncertainties pose a challenge to the design and assessment of future energy strategies and investments, especially in the economic assessment of renewable energy versus business-as-usual scenarios based on fossil fuels. From a methodological...... point of view, the typical way of handling this challenge has been to predict future prices as accurately as possible and then conduct a sensitivity analysis. This paper includes a historical analysis of such predictions, leading to the conclusion that they are almost always wrong. Not only...... are they wrong in their prediction of price levels, but also in the sense that they always seem to predict a smooth growth or decrease. This paper introduces a new method and reports the results of applying it on the case of energy scenarios for Denmark. The method implies the expectation of fluctuating fuel...
Chemical kinetic functional sensitivity analysis: Elementary sensitivities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Demiralp, M.; Rabitz, H.
1981-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is considered for kinetics problems defined in the space--time domain. This extends an earlier temporal Green's function method to handle calculations of elementary functional sensitivities deltau/sub i//deltaα/sub j/ where u/sub i/ is the ith species concentration and α/sub j/ is the jth system parameter. The system parameters include rate constants, diffusion coefficients, initial conditions, boundary conditions, or any other well-defined variables in the kinetic equations. These parameters are generally considered to be functions of position and/or time. Derivation of the governing equations for the sensitivities and the Green's funciton are presented. The physical interpretation of the Green's function and sensitivities is given along with a discussion of the relation of this work to earlier research
Multi-object segmentation framework using deformable models for medical imaging analysis.
Namías, Rafael; D'Amato, Juan Pablo; Del Fresno, Mariana; Vénere, Marcelo; Pirró, Nicola; Bellemare, Marc-Emmanuel
2016-08-01
Segmenting structures of interest in medical images is an important step in different tasks such as visualization, quantitative analysis, simulation, and image-guided surgery, among several other clinical applications. Numerous segmentation methods have been developed in the past three decades for extraction of anatomical or functional structures on medical imaging. Deformable models, which include the active contour models or snakes, are among the most popular methods for image segmentation combining several desirable features such as inherent connectivity and smoothness. Even though different approaches have been proposed and significant work has been dedicated to the improvement of such algorithms, there are still challenging research directions as the simultaneous extraction of multiple objects and the integration of individual techniques. This paper presents a novel open-source framework called deformable model array (DMA) for the segmentation of multiple and complex structures of interest in different imaging modalities. While most active contour algorithms can extract one region at a time, DMA allows integrating several deformable models to deal with multiple segmentation scenarios. Moreover, it is possible to consider any existing explicit deformable model formulation and even to incorporate new active contour methods, allowing to select a suitable combination in different conditions. The framework also introduces a control module that coordinates the cooperative evolution of the snakes and is able to solve interaction issues toward the segmentation goal. Thus, DMA can implement complex object and multi-object segmentations in both 2D and 3D using the contextual information derived from the model interaction. These are important features for several medical image analysis tasks in which different but related objects need to be simultaneously extracted. Experimental results on both computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging show that the proposed
MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis
2012-01-01
The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ostafew, C. [Azure Dynamics Corp., Toronto, ON (Canada)
2010-07-01
This presentation included a sensitivity analysis of electric vehicle components on overall efficiency. The presentation provided an overview of drive cycles and discussed the major contributors to range in terms of rolling resistance; aerodynamic drag; motor efficiency; and vehicle mass. Drive cycles that were presented included: New York City Cycle (NYCC); urban dynamometer drive cycle; and US06. A summary of the findings were presented for each of the major contributors. Rolling resistance was found to have a balanced effect on each drive cycle and proportional to range. In terms of aerodynamic drive, there was a large effect on US06 range. A large effect was also found on NYCC range in terms of motor efficiency and vehicle mass. figs.
Optimum analysis of pavement maintenance using multi-objective genetic algorithms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amr A. Elhadidy
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Road network expansion in Egypt is considered as a vital issue for the development of the country. This is done while upgrading current road networks to increase the safety and efficiency. A pavement management system (PMS is a set of tools or methods that assist decision makers in finding optimum strategies for providing and maintaining pavements in a serviceable condition over a given period of time. A multi-objective optimization problem for pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies on network level is discussed in this paper. A two-objective optimization model considers minimum action costs and maximum condition for used road network. In the proposed approach, Markov-chain models are used for predicting the performance of road pavement and to calculate the expected decline at different periods of time. A genetic-algorithm-based procedure is developed for solving the multi-objective optimization problem. The model searched for the optimum maintenance actions at adequate time to be implemented on an appropriate pavement. Based on the computing results, the Pareto optimal solutions of the two-objective optimization functions are obtained. From the optimal solutions represented by cost and condition, a decision maker can easily obtain the information of the maintenance and rehabilitation planning with minimum action costs and maximum condition. The developed model has been implemented on a network of roads and showed its ability to derive the optimal solution.
Maternal sensitivity: a concept analysis.
Shin, Hyunjeong; Park, Young-Joo; Ryu, Hosihn; Seomun, Gyeong-Ae
2008-11-01
The aim of this paper is to report a concept analysis of maternal sensitivity. Maternal sensitivity is a broad concept encompassing a variety of interrelated affective and behavioural caregiving attributes. It is used interchangeably with the terms maternal responsiveness or maternal competency, with no consistency of use. There is a need to clarify the concept of maternal sensitivity for research and practice. A search was performed on the CINAHL and Ovid MEDLINE databases using 'maternal sensitivity', 'maternal responsiveness' and 'sensitive mothering' as key words. The searches yielded 54 records for the years 1981-2007. Rodgers' method of evolutionary concept analysis was used to analyse the material. Four critical attributes of maternal sensitivity were identified: (a) dynamic process involving maternal abilities; (b) reciprocal give-and-take with the infant; (c) contingency on the infant's behaviour and (d) quality of maternal behaviours. Maternal identity and infant's needs and cues are antecedents for these attributes. The consequences are infant's comfort, mother-infant attachment and infant development. In addition, three positive affecting factors (social support, maternal-foetal attachment and high self-esteem) and three negative affecting factors (maternal depression, maternal stress and maternal anxiety) were identified. A clear understanding of the concept of maternal sensitivity could be useful for developing ways to enhance maternal sensitivity and to maximize the developmental potential of infants. Knowledge of the attributes of maternal sensitivity identified in this concept analysis may be helpful for constructing measuring items or dimensions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tunjo Perić
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents and analyzes the applicability of three linearization techniques used for solving multi-objective linear fractional programming problems using the goal programming method. The three linearization techniques are: (1 Taylor’s polynomial linearization approximation, (2 the method of variable change, and (3 a modification of the method of variable change proposed in [20]. All three linearization techniques are presented and analyzed in two variants: (a using the optimal value of the objective functions as the decision makers’ aspirations, and (b the decision makers’ aspirations are given by the decision makers. As the criteria for the analysis we use the efficiency of the obtained solutions and the difficulties the analyst comes upon in preparing the linearization models. To analyze the applicability of the linearization techniques incorporated in the linear goal programming method we use an example of a financial structure optimization problem.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wu Juan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Military transport path selection directly affects the transport speed, efficiency, and safety. To a certain degree, the results of the path selection determine success or failure of the war situation. The purpose of this paper is to propose a model based on DEA (data envelopment analysis and multiobjective fuzzy decision-making for path selection. The path decision set is established according to a search algorithm based on overlapping section punishment. Considering the influence of various fuzzy factors, the model of optimal path is constructed based on DEA and multitarget fuzzy decision-making theory, where travel time, transport risk, quick response capability, and transport cost constitute the evaluation target set. A reasonable path set can be calculated and sorted according to the comprehensive scores of the paths. The numerical results show that the model and the related algorithms are effective for path selection of military transport.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ali Gorener
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Location selection problem in banking is an important issue for the commercial success in competitive environment. There is a strategic fit between the location selection decision and overall performance of a new branch. Providing physical service in requested location as well as alternative distribution channels to meet profitable client needs is the current problematic to achieve the competitive advantage over the rivalry in financial system. In this paper, an integrated model has been developed to support in the decision of branch location selection for a new bank branch. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP technique has been conducted to prioritize of evaluation criteria, and multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA method has been applied to rank location alternatives of bank branch.
Fuzzy multinomial logistic regression analysis: A multi-objective programming approach
Abdalla, Hesham A.; El-Sayed, Amany A.; Hamed, Ramadan
2017-05-01
Parameter estimation for multinomial logistic regression is usually based on maximizing the likelihood function. For large well-balanced datasets, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation is a satisfactory approach. Unfortunately, ML can fail completely or at least produce poor results in terms of estimated probabilities and confidence intervals of parameters, specially for small datasets. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy concepts is proposed to estimate parameters of the multinomial logistic regression. The study assumes that the parameters of multinomial logistic regression are fuzzy. Based on the extension principle stated by Zadeh and Bárdossy's proposition, a multi-objective programming approach is suggested to estimate these fuzzy parameters. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performance of the new approach versus Maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Results show that the new proposed model outperforms ML in cases of small datasets.
Global optimization and sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, D.G.
1990-01-01
A new direction for the analysis of nonlinear models of nuclear systems is suggested to overcome fundamental limitations of sensitivity analysis and optimization methods currently prevalent in nuclear engineering usage. This direction is toward a global analysis of the behavior of the respective system as its design parameters are allowed to vary over their respective design ranges. Presented is a methodology for global analysis that unifies and extends the current scopes of sensitivity analysis and optimization by identifying all the critical points (maxima, minima) and solution bifurcation points together with corresponding sensitivities at any design point of interest. The potential applicability of this methodology is illustrated with test problems involving multiple critical points and bifurcations and comprising both equality and inequality constraints
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Maerker, R.E.
1990-01-01
A sensitivity analysis of EQ3, a computer code which has been proposed to be used as one link in the overall performance assessment of a national high-level waste repository, has been performed. EQ3 is a geochemical modeling code used to calculate the speciation of a water and its saturation state with respect to mineral phases. The model chosen for the sensitivity analysis is one which is used as a test problem in the documentation of the EQ3 code. Sensitivities are calculated using both the CHAIN and ADGEN options of the GRESS code compiled under G-float FORTRAN on the VAX/VMS and verified by perturbation runs. The analyses were performed with a preliminary Version 1.0 of GRESS which contains several new algorithms that significantly improve the application of ADGEN. Use of ADGEN automates the implementation of the well-known adjoint technique for the efficient calculation of sensitivities of a given response to all the input data. Application of ADGEN to EQ3 results in the calculation of sensitivities of a particular response to 31,000 input parameters in a run time of only 27 times that of the original model. Moreover, calculation of the sensitivities for each additional response increases this factor by only 2.5 percent. This compares very favorably with a running-time factor of 31,000 if direct perturbation runs were used instead. 6 refs., 8 tabs
High order depletion sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Naguib, K.; Adib, M.; Morcos, H.N.
2002-01-01
A high order depletion sensitivity method was applied to calculate the sensitivities of build-up of actinides in the irradiated fuel due to cross-section uncertainties. An iteration method based on Taylor series expansion was applied to construct stationary principle, from which all orders of perturbations were calculated. The irradiated EK-10 and MTR-20 fuels at their maximum burn-up of 25% and 65% respectively were considered for sensitivity analysis. The results of calculation show that, in case of EK-10 fuel (low burn-up), the first order sensitivity was found to be enough to perform an accuracy of 1%. While in case of MTR-20 (high burn-up) the fifth order was found to provide 3% accuracy. A computer code SENS was developed to provide the required calculations
Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2009-01-01
This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial
Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.
2006-01-01
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values
Multi-objective optimization of a plate and frame heat exchanger via genetic algorithm
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Najafi, Hamidreza; Najafi, Behzad [K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tehran (Iran)
2010-06-15
In the present paper, a plate and frame heat exchanger is considered. Multi-objective optimization using genetic algorithm is developed in order to obtain a set of geometric design parameters, which lead to minimum pressure drop and the maximum overall heat transfer coefficient. Vividly, considered objective functions are conflicting and no single solution can satisfy both objectives simultaneously. Multi-objective optimization procedure yields a set of optimal solutions, called Pareto front, each of which is a trade-off between objectives and can be selected by the user, regarding the application and the project's limits. The presented work takes care of numerous geometric parameters in the presence of logical constraints. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to study the effects of different geometric parameters on the considered objective functions. Modeling the system and implementing the multi-objective optimization via genetic algorithm has been performed by MATLAB. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Analyze the impact of a demand response program under uncertainty. • Stochastic Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated. • Case study of the Taiwanese electric power market is conducted. • Demand response decreases power price, generation, and emissions. • Demand uncertainty increases energy price and supply risk in the results. - Abstract: In the electricity market, demand response programs are designed to shift peak demand and enhance system reliability. A demand response program can reduce peak energy demand, power transmission congestion, or high energy-price conditions by changing consumption patterns. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of a demand response program in the energy market, under demand uncertainty. A stochastic–multiobjective Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated to simulate demand response in an uncertain energy market. Then, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions and a linear complementarity problem are derived for the stochastic Nash–Cournot model. Accordingly, the linear complementarity problem is solved and its stochastic market equilibrium solution is determined by using a general algebraic modeling system. Additionally, the case of the Taiwanese electric power market is taken up here, and the results show that a demand response program is capable of reducing peak energy consumption, energy price, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that demand response program decreases electricity price by 2–10%, total electricity generation by 0.5–2%, and carbon dioxide emissions by 0.5–2.5% in the Taiwanese power market. In the simulation, demand uncertainty leads to an 2–7% increase in energy price and supply risk in the market. Additionally, tradeoffs between cost and carbon dioxide emissions are presented.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MICHAEL J. LEE
2016-01-01
Full Text Available A product’s lifecycle performance (e.g. assembly, outsourcing, maintenance and recycling can often be improved through modularity. However, modularisation under different and often conflicting lifecycle objectives is a complex problem that will ultimately require trade-offs. This paper presents a novel multi-objective modularity optimisation framework; the application of which is illustrated through the modularisation of a car climate control system. Central to the framework is a specially designed multi-objective grouping genetic algorithm (MOGGA that is able to generate a whole range of alternative product modularisations. Scenario analysis, using the principles of the analytical hierarchical process (AHP, is then carried out to explore the solution set and choose a suitable modular architecture that optimises the product lifecycle according to the company’s strategic vision.
Abing, Stephen Lloyd N.; Barton, Mercie Grace L.; Dumdum, Michael Gerard M.; Bongo, Miriam F.; Ocampo, Lanndon A.
2018-02-01
This paper adopts a modified approach of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the academic efficiency of university departments. In real-world case studies, conventional DEA models often identify too many decision-making units (DMUs) as efficient. This occurs when the number of DMUs under evaluation is not large enough compared to the total number of decision variables. To overcome this limitation and reduce the number of decision variables, multi-objective data envelopment analysis (MODEA) approach previously presented in the literature is applied. The MODEA approach applies Shapley value as a cooperative game to determine the appropriate weights and efficiency score of each category of inputs. To illustrate the performance of the adopted approach, a case study is conducted in a university in the Philippines. The input variables are academic staff, non-academic staff, classrooms, laboratories, research grants, and department expenditures, while the output variables are the number of graduates and publications. The results of the case study revealed that all DMUs are inefficient. DMUs with efficiency scores close to the ideal efficiency score may be emulated by other DMUs with least efficiency scores.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MILOŠ MADIĆ
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The role of non-conventional machining processes (NCMPs in today’s manufacturing environment has been well acknowledged. For effective utilization of the capabilities and advantages of different NCMPs, selection of the most appropriate NCMP for a given machining application requires consideration of different conflicting criteria. The right choice of the NCMP is critical to the success and competitiveness of the company. As the NCMP selection problem involves consideration of different conflicting criteria, of different relative importance, the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM methods are very useful in systematical selection of the most appropriate NCMP. This paper presents the application of a recent MCDM method, i.e., the multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA method to solve NCMP selection which has been defined considering different performance criteria of four most widely used NCMPs. In order to determine the relative significance of considered quality criteria a pair-wise comparison matrix of the analytic hierarchy process was used. The results obtained using the MOORA method showed perfect correlation with those obtained by the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS method which proves the applicability and potentiality of this MCDM method for solving complex NCMP selection problems.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Anita S; Eslick, John C; Miller, David C; Kitchin, John R
2013-10-01
Amine solvents are of great interest for post-combustion CO{sub 2} capture applications. Although the development of new solvents is predominantly conducted at the laboratory scale, the ability to assess the performance of newly developed solvents at the process scale is crucial to identifying the best solvents for CO{sub 2} capture. In this work we present a methodology to evaluate and objectively compare the process performance of different solvents. We use Aspen Plus, with the electrolyte-NRTL thermodynamic model for the solvent CO{sub 2} interactions, coupled with a multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization to determine the best process design and operating conditions for each solvent. This ensures that the processes utilized for the comparison are those which are best suited for the specific solvent. We evaluate and compare the process performance of monoethanolamine (MEA), diethanolamine (DEA), and 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP) in a 90% CO{sub 2} capture process from a 550 MW coal fired power plant. From our analysis the best process specifications are amine specific and with those specific, optimized specifications DEA has the potential to be a better performing solvent than MEA, with a lower energy penalty and lower capital cost investment.
Sensitivity analysis in remote sensing
Ustinov, Eugene A
2015-01-01
This book contains a detailed presentation of general principles of sensitivity analysis as well as their applications to sample cases of remote sensing experiments. An emphasis is made on applications of adjoint problems, because they are more efficient in many practical cases, although their formulation may seem counterintuitive to a beginner. Special attention is paid to forward problems based on higher-order partial differential equations, where a novel matrix operator approach to formulation of corresponding adjoint problems is presented. Sensitivity analysis (SA) serves for quantitative models of physical objects the same purpose, as differential calculus does for functions. SA provides derivatives of model output parameters (observables) with respect to input parameters. In remote sensing SA provides computer-efficient means to compute the jacobians, matrices of partial derivatives of observables with respect to the geophysical parameters of interest. The jacobians are used to solve corresponding inver...
Sensitivity Analysis of Viscoelastic Structures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A.M.G. de Lima
2006-01-01
Full Text Available In the context of control of sound and vibration of mechanical systems, the use of viscoelastic materials has been regarded as a convenient strategy in many types of industrial applications. Numerical models based on finite element discretization have been frequently used in the analysis and design of complex structural systems incorporating viscoelastic materials. Such models must account for the typical dependence of the viscoelastic characteristics on operational and environmental parameters, such as frequency and temperature. In many applications, including optimal design and model updating, sensitivity analysis based on numerical models is a very usefull tool. In this paper, the formulation of first-order sensitivity analysis of complex frequency response functions is developed for plates treated with passive constraining damping layers, considering geometrical characteristics, such as the thicknesses of the multi-layer components, as design variables. Also, the sensitivity of the frequency response functions with respect to temperature is introduced. As an example, response derivatives are calculated for a three-layer sandwich plate and the results obtained are compared with first-order finite-difference approximations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. Saberi
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Increasing demand for water, depletion of resources of acceptable quality, and excessive water pollution due to agricultural and industrial developments has caused intensive social and environmental problems all over the world. Given the environmental importance of rivers, complexity and extent of pollution factors and physical, chemical and biological processes in these systems, optimal waste-load allocation in river systems has been given considerable attention in the literature in the past decades. The overall objective of planning and quality management of river systems is to develop and implement a coordinated set of strategies and policies to reduce or allocate of pollution entering the rivers so that the water quality matches by proposing environmental standards with an acceptable reliability. In such matters, often there are several different decision makers with different utilities which lead to conflicts. Methods/Materials: In this research, a conflict resolution framework for optimal waste load allocation in river systems is proposed, considering the total treatment cost and the Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD violation characteristics. There are two decision-makers inclusive waste load discharges coalition and environmentalists who have conflicting objectives. This framework consists of an embedded river water quality simulator, which simulates the transport process including reaction kinetics. The trade-off curve between objectives is obtained using the Multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm which these objectives are minimization of the total cost of treatment and penalties that must be paid by discharges and a violation of water quality standards considering BOD parameter which is controlled by environmentalists. Thus, the basic policy of river’s water quality management is formulated in such a way that the decision-makers are ensured their benefits will be provided as far as possible. By using MOPSO
UMTS Common Channel Sensitivity Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pratas, Nuno; Rodrigues, António; Santos, Frederico
2006-01-01
and as such it is necessary that both channels be available across the cell radius. This requirement makes the choice of the transmission parameters a fundamental one. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis regarding the transmission parameters of two UMTS common channels: RACH and FACH. Optimization of these channels...... is performed and values for the key transmission parameters in both common channels are obtained. On RACH these parameters are the message to preamble offset, the initial SIR target and the preamble power step while on FACH it is the transmission power offset....
TEMAC, Top Event Sensitivity Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iman, R.L.; Shortencarier, M.J.
1988-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: TEMAC is designed to permit the user to easily estimate risk and to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a Boolean expression such as produced by the SETS computer program. SETS produces a mathematical representation of a fault tree used to model system unavailability. In the terminology of the TEMAC program, such a mathematical representation is referred to as a top event. The analysis of risk involves the estimation of the magnitude of risk, the sensitivity of risk estimates to base event probabilities and initiating event frequencies, and the quantification of the uncertainty in the risk estimates. 2 - Method of solution: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses associated with top events involve mathematical operations on the corresponding Boolean expression for the top event, as well as repeated evaluations of the top event in a Monte Carlo fashion. TEMAC employs a general matrix approach which provides a convenient general form for Boolean expressions, is computationally efficient, and allows large problems to be analyzed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 4000 cut sets, 500 events, 500 values in a Monte Carlo sample, 16 characters in an event name. These restrictions are implemented through the FORTRAN 77 PARAMATER statement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yao, Erren; Wang, Huanran; Wang, Ligang; Xi, Guang; Maréchal, François
2017-01-01
Highlights: • A novel tri-generation based compressed air energy storage system. • Trade-off between efficiency and cost to highlight the best compromise solution. • Components with largest irreversibility and potential improvements highlighted. - Abstract: Compressed air energy storage technologies can improve the supply capacity and stability of the electricity grid, particularly when fluctuating renewable energies are massively connected. While incorporating the combined cooling, heating and power systems into compressed air energy storage could achieve stable operation as well as efficient energy utilization. In this paper, a novel combined cooling, heating and power based compressed air energy storage system is proposed. The system combines a gas engine, supplemental heat exchangers and an ammonia-water absorption refrigeration system. The design trade-off between the thermodynamic and economic objectives, i.e., the overall exergy efficiency and the total specific cost of product, is investigated by an evolutionary multi-objective algorithm for the proposed combined system. It is found that, with an increase in the exergy efficiency, the total product unit cost is less affected in the beginning, while rises substantially afterwards. The best trade-off solution is selected with an overall exergy efficiency of 53.04% and a total product unit cost of 20.54 cent/kWh, respectively. The variation of decision variables with the exergy efficiency indicates that the compressor, turbine and heat exchanger preheating the inlet air of turbine are the key equipment to cost-effectively pursuit a higher exergy efficiency. It is also revealed by an exergoeconomic analysis that, for the best trade-off solution, the investment costs of the compressor and the two heat exchangers recovering compression heat and heating up compressed air for expansion should be reduced (particularly the latter), while the thermodynamic performance of the gas engine need to be improved
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdolsaeid Ganjehkaviri
2014-10-01
Full Text Available A comprehensive thermodynamic study is conducted of a diesel based Combined Heat and Power (CHP system, based on a diesel engine and an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC. Present research covers both energy and exergy analyses along with a multi-objective optimization. In order to determine the irreversibilities in each component of the CHP system and assess the system performance, a complete parametric study is performed to investigate the effects of major design parameters and operating conditions on the system’s performance. The main contribution of the current research study is to conduct both exergy and multi-objective optimization of a system using different working fluid for low-grade heat recovery. In order to conduct the evolutionary based optimization, two objective functions are considered in the optimization; namely the system exergy efficiency, and the total cost rate of the system, which is a combination of the cost associated with environmental impact and the purchase cost of each component. Therefore, in the optimization approach, the overall cycle exergy efficiency is maximized satisfying several constraints while the total cost rate of the system is minimized. To provide a better understanding of the system under study, the Pareto frontier is shown for multi-objective optimization and also an equation is derived to fit the optimized point. In addition, a closed form relationship between exergy efficiency and total cost rate is derived.
Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ravalico, Jakin K.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.
2009-01-01
Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.
A descriptive analysis of quantitative indices for multi-objective block layout
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amalia Medina Palomera
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Layout generation methods provide alternative solutions whose feasibility and quality must be evaluated. Indices must be used to distinguish the feasible solutions (involving different criteria obtained for block layout to identify s solution’s suitability, according to set objectives. This paper provides an accurate and descriptive analysis of the geometric indices used in designing facility layout (during block layout phase. The indices studied here have advantages and disadvantages which should be considered by an analyst before attempting to resolve the facility layout problem. New equations are proposed for measuring geometric indices. The analysis revealed redundant indices and that a minimum number of indices covering overall quality criteria may be used when selecting alternative solutions.
Multi-Objective data analysis using Bayesian Inference for MagLIF experiments
Knapp, Patrick; Glinksy, Michael; Evans, Matthew; Gom, Matth; Han, Stephanie; Harding, Eric; Slutz, Steve; Hahn, Kelly; Harvey-Thompson, Adam; Geissel, Matthias; Ampleford, David; Jennings, Christopher; Schmit, Paul; Smith, Ian; Schwarz, Jens; Peterson, Kyle; Jones, Brent; Rochau, Gregory; Sinars, Daniel
2017-10-01
The MagLIF concept has recently demonstrated Gbar pressures and confinement of charged fusion products at stagnation. We present a new analysis methodology that allows for integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power to determine the temperature, pressure, liner areal density, and mix fraction. A simplified hot-spot model is used with a Bayesian inference network to determine the most probable model parameters that describe the observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.
Multi-objective optimization and grey relational analysis on configurations of organic Rankine cycle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Y.Z.; Zhao, J.; Wang, Y.; An, Q.S.
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Pareto frontier is an effective way to make comprehensive comparison of ORC. • Comprehensive performance from energy and economics of basic ORC is the best. • R141b shows the best comprehensive performance from energy and economics. - Abstract: Concerning the comprehensive performance of organic Rankine cycle (ORC), comparisons and optimizations on 3 different configurations of ORC (basic, regenerative and extractive ORCs) are investigated in this paper. Medium-temperature geothermal water is used for comparing the influence of configurations, working fluids and operating parameters on different evaluation criteria. Different evaluation and optimization methods are adopted in evaluation of ORCs to obtain the one with the best comprehensive performance, such as exergoeconomic analysis, bi-objective optimization and grey relational analysis. The results reveal that the basic ORC performs the best among these 3 ORCs in terms of comprehensive thermodynamic and economic performances when using R245fa and driven by geothermal water at 150 °C. Furthermore, R141b shows the best comprehensive performance among 14 working fluids based on the Pareto frontier solutions without considering safe factors. Meanwhile, R141b is the best among all 14 working fluids with the optimal comprehensive performance when regarding all the evaluation criteria as equal by using grey relational analysis.
Data fusion qualitative sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clayton, E.A.; Lewis, R.E.
1995-09-01
Pacific Northwest Laboratory was tasked with testing, debugging, and refining the Hanford Site data fusion workstation (DFW), with the assistance of Coleman Research Corporation (CRC), before delivering the DFW to the environmental restoration client at the Hanford Site. Data fusion is the mathematical combination (or fusion) of disparate data sets into a single interpretation. The data fusion software used in this study was developed by CRC. The data fusion software developed by CRC was initially demonstrated on a data set collected at the Hanford Site where three types of data were combined. These data were (1) seismic reflection, (2) seismic refraction, and (3) depth to geologic horizons. The fused results included a contour map of the top of a low-permeability horizon. This report discusses the results of a sensitivity analysis of data fusion software to variations in its input parameters. The data fusion software developed by CRC has a large number of input parameters that can be varied by the user and that influence the results of data fusion. Many of these parameters are defined as part of the earth model. The earth model is a series of 3-dimensional polynomials with horizontal spatial coordinates as the independent variables and either subsurface layer depth or values of various properties within these layers (e.g., compression wave velocity, resistivity) as the dependent variables
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems.
Zhang, Hong-Xuan; Dempsey, William P; Goutsias, John
2009-09-07
Sensitivity analysis is an indispensable tool for studying the robustness and fragility properties of biochemical reaction systems as well as for designing optimal approaches for selective perturbation and intervention. Deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques, using derivatives of the system response, have been extensively used in the literature. However, these techniques suffer from several drawbacks, which must be carefully considered before using them in problems of systems biology. We develop here a probabilistic approach to sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems. The proposed technique employs a biophysically derived model for parameter fluctuations and, by using a recently suggested variance-based approach to sensitivity analysis [Saltelli et al., Chem. Rev. (Washington, D.C.) 105, 2811 (2005)], it leads to a powerful sensitivity analysis methodology for biochemical reaction systems. The approach presented in this paper addresses many problems associated with derivative-based sensitivity analysis techniques. Most importantly, it produces thermodynamically consistent sensitivity analysis results, can easily accommodate appreciable parameter variations, and allows for systematic investigation of high-order interaction effects. By employing a computational model of the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade, we demonstrate that our approach is well suited for sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems and can produce a wealth of information about the sensitivity properties of such systems. The price to be paid, however, is a substantial increase in computational complexity over derivative-based techniques, which must be effectively addressed in order to make the proposed approach to sensitivity analysis more practical.
Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition and experimental time. These results which we have not seen elsewhere are analysed and discussed quantitatively. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage. June, 2012, Vol.
Sensitivity Analysis of Multidisciplinary Rotorcraft Simulations
Wang, Li; Diskin, Boris; Biedron, Robert T.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Bauchau, Olivier A.
2017-01-01
A multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis of rotorcraft simulations involving tightly coupled high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis solvers is presented and evaluated. An unstructured sensitivity-enabled Navier-Stokes solver, FUN3D, and a nonlinear flexible multibody dynamics solver, DYMORE, are coupled to predict the aerodynamic loads and structural responses of helicopter rotor blades. A discretely-consistent adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in FUN3D provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows and unstructured dynamic overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute DYMORE structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Numerical results verify accuracy of the FUN3D/DYMORE system by conducting simulations for a benchmark rotorcraft test model and comparing solutions with established analyses and experimental data. Complex-variable implementation of sensitivity analysis of DYMORE and the coupled FUN3D/DYMORE system is verified by comparing with real-valued analysis and sensitivities. Correctness of adjoint formulations for FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces is verified by comparing adjoint-based and complex-variable sensitivities. Finally, sensitivities of the lift and drag functions obtained by complex-variable FUN3D/DYMORE simulations are compared with sensitivities computed by the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis, which couples adjoint-based flow and grid sensitivities of FUN3D and FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces with complex-variable sensitivities of DYMORE structural responses.
Vieira, João; da Conceição Cunha, Maria
2017-04-01
A multi-objective decision model has been developed to identify the Pareto-optimal set of management alternatives for the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater of a multisource urban water supply system. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, Borg MOEA, is used to solve the multi-objective decision model. The multiple solutions can be shown to stakeholders allowing them to choose their own solutions depending on their preferences. The multisource urban water supply system studied here is dependent on surface water and groundwater and located in the Algarve region, southernmost province of Portugal, with a typical warm Mediterranean climate. The rainfall is low, intermittent and concentrated in a short winter, followed by a long and dry period. A base population of 450 000 inhabitants and visits by more than 13 million tourists per year, mostly in summertime, turns water management critical and challenging. Previous studies on single objective optimization after aggregating multiple objectives together have already concluded that only an integrated and interannual water resources management perspective can be efficient for water resource allocation in this drought prone region. A simulation model of the multisource urban water supply system using mathematical functions to represent the water balance in the surface reservoirs, the groundwater flow in the aquifers, and the water transport in the distribution network with explicit representation of water quality is coupled with Borg MOEA. The multi-objective problem formulation includes five objectives. Two objective evaluate separately the water quantity and the water quality supplied for the urban use in a finite time horizon, one objective calculates the operating costs, and two objectives appraise the state of the two water sources - the storage in the surface reservoir and the piezometric levels in aquifer - at the end of the time horizon. The decision variables are the volume of withdrawals from
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Zhe; Li, Yanzhong
2015-01-01
Highlights: • The first application of IMOCS for plate-fin heat exchanger design. • Irreversibility degrees of heat transfer and fluid friction are minimized. • Trade-off of efficiency, total cost and pumping power is achieved. • Both EGM and EDM methods have been compared in the optimization of PFHE. • This study has superiority over other single-objective optimization design. - Abstract: This paper introduces and applies an improved multi-objective cuckoo search (IMOCS) algorithm, a novel met-heuristic optimization algorithm based on cuckoo breeding behavior, for the multi-objective optimization design of plate-fin heat exchangers (PFHEs). A modified irreversibility degree of the PFHE is separated into heat transfer and fluid friction irreversibility degrees which are adopted as two initial objective functions to be minimized simultaneously for narrowing the search scope of the design. The maximization efficiency, minimization of pumping power, and total annual cost are considered final objective functions. Results obtained from a two dimensional normalized Pareto-optimal frontier clearly demonstrate the trade-off between heat transfer and fluid friction irreversibility. Moreover, a three dimensional Pareto-optimal frontier reveals a relationship between efficiency, total annual cost, and pumping power in the PFHE design. Three examples presented here further demonstrate that the presented method is able to obtain optimum solutions with higher accuracy, lower irreversibility, and fewer iterations as compared to the previous methods and single-objective design approaches
Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations
Object-sensitive Type Analysis of PHP
Van der Hoek, Henk Erik; Hage, J
2015-01-01
In this paper we develop an object-sensitive type analysis for PHP, based on an extension of the notion of monotone frameworks to deal with the dynamic aspects of PHP, and following the framework of Smaragdakis et al. for object-sensitive analysis. We consider a number of instantiations of the
Power magnetic devices a multi-objective design approach
Sudhoff, Scott D
2014-01-01
Presents a multi-objective design approach to the many power magnetic devices in use today Power Magnetic Devices: A Multi-Objective Design Approach addresses the design of power magnetic devices-including inductors, transformers, electromagnets, and rotating electric machinery-using a structured design approach based on formal single- and multi-objective optimization. The book opens with a discussion of evolutionary-computing-based optimization. Magnetic analysis techniques useful to the design of all the devices considered in the book are then set forth. This material is then used for ind
A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib
2017-01-01
Distribution based sensitivity analysis (DSA) computes sensitivity of the input random variables with respect to the change in distribution of output response. Although DSA is widely appreciated as the best tool for sensitivity analysis, the computational issue associated with this method prohibits its use for complex structures involving costly finite element analysis. For addressing this issue, this paper presents a method that couples polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with DSA. PCFE is a fully equivalent operational model which integrates the concepts of analysis of variance decomposition, extended bases and homotopy algorithm. By integrating PCFE into DSA, it is possible to considerably alleviate the computational burden. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach for sensitivity analysis. For all the problems, proposed approach yields excellent results with significantly reduced computational effort. The results obtained, to some extent, indicate that proposed approach can be utilized for sensitivity analysis of large scale structures. - Highlights: • A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Proposed approach integrates PCFE within distribution based sensitivity analysis. • Proposed approach is highly efficient.
Sensitivity analysis of a PWR pressurizer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bruel, Renata Nunes
1997-01-01
A sensitivity analysis relative to the parameters and modelling of the physical process in a PWR pressurizer has been performed. The sensitivity analysis was developed by implementing the key parameters and theoretical model lings which generated a comprehensive matrix of influences of each changes analysed. The major influences that have been observed were the flashing phenomenon and the steam condensation on the spray drops. The present analysis is also applicable to the several theoretical and experimental areas. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barin, Alexandre; Pozzatti, Luis F.; Canha, Luciane N.; Abaide, Alzenira R. [Federal University of Santa Maria - UFSM, Post-graduation Program of Electric Engineering - PPGEE, Center of Studies of Energy and Environment - CEEMA, Santa Maria, RS (Brazil); Machado, Ricardo Q. [University of Sao Paulo - USP, Sao Carlos, SP (Brazil); Arend, Gustavo [State Electric Energy Company - CEEE-D, Division of Distribution, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)
2010-12-15
Recent advances in energy technology generation and new directions in electricity regulation have made distributed generation (DG) more widespread, with consequent significant impacts on the operational characteristics of distribution networks. For this reason, new methods for identifying such impacts are needed, together with research and development of new tools and resources to maintain and facilitate continued expansion towards DG. This paper presents a study aimed at determining appropriate DG sites for distribution systems. The main considerations which determine DG sites are also presented, together with an account of the advantages gained from correct DG placement. The paper intends to define some quantitative and qualitative parameters evaluated by Digsilent registered, GARP3 registered and DSA-GD software. A multi-objective approach based on the Bellman-Zadeh algorithm and fuzzy logic is used to determine appropriate DG sites. The study also aims to find acceptable DG locations both for distribution system feeders, as well as for nodes inside a given feeder. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sadeghi, Mohsen; Nemati, Arash; Ghavimi, Alireza; Yari, Mortaza
2016-01-01
In this paper, the performance of the ORC (organic Rankine cycle) powered by geothermal water, in three different configurations, including the simple ORC, PTORC (parallel two-stage ORC) and STORC (series two-stage ORC), using zeotrpoic working fluids is investigated from the viewpoints of the energy and exergy. In addition, considering the net power output and TSP (turbine size parameter) as the two objective functions, the multi-objective optimization with the aim of maximizing the first function and minimizing the second one, is performed to determine the optimal values of decision variables including evaporators 1 and 2 pressure, the pinch point temperature difference and the superheating degree. The results show that using zeotropic mixtures as the working fluid instead of a pure fluid such as R245fa, leads to 27.76%, 24.98% and 24.79% improvement in power generation in the simple ORC, PTORC and STORC, respectively and also lower values of TSP. Moreover, it is observed that STORC has the highest amount of net power output and R407A can be selected as the most appropriate working fluid. The optimization results demonstrate that at the final optimum point achieved by Pareto frontier, the values of the objective functions are gained 877 kW and 0.08218 m, respectively. - Highlights: • Three different configurations of ORC powered by geothermal water are analyzed. • The thermodynamic performance of these systems using zeotrpoic mixtures is investigated. • Multi-objective optimization is performed to obtain optimum performance. • The Pareto-frontier is used to automatically select the most promising solutions.
Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems
Noor, Ahmed K.; Whitworth, Sandra L.
1987-01-01
The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.
Sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment
Groen, E.A.; Heijungs, R.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Boer, de I.J.M.
2014-01-01
Life cycle assessments require many input parameters and many of these parameters are uncertain; therefore, a sensitivity analysis is an essential part of the final interpretation. The aim of this study is to compare seven sensitivity methods applied to three types of case stud-ies. Two
Applying Fuzzy Multiobjective Integrated Logistics Model to Green Supply Chain Problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chui-Yu Chiu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is attempting to explore the optimal way of supply chain management within the domain of environmental responsibility and concerns. The background of this research involves the issue of green supply chain management (GSCM and the concept of the multiobjective integrated logistics model. More specifically, in this paper, we suggest the fuzzy multiobjective integrated logistics model with the transportation cost and demand fuzziness to solve green supply chain problems in the uncertain environment which is illustrated via the detailed numerical example. Results and the sensitivity analysis of the numerical example indicate that when the governmental subsidy value increased the profits of the reverse chain also increased. The finding shows that the governmental subsidy policy could remain of significant influence for used-product reverse logistics chain.
Ethical sensitivity in professional practice: concept analysis.
Weaver, Kathryn; Morse, Janice; Mitcham, Carl
2008-06-01
This paper is a report of a concept analysis of ethical sensitivity. Ethical sensitivity enables nurses and other professionals to respond morally to the suffering and vulnerability of those receiving professional care and services. Because of its significance to nursing and other professional practices, ethical sensitivity deserves more focused analysis. A criteria-based method oriented toward pragmatic utility guided the analysis of 200 papers and books from the fields of nursing, medicine, psychology, dentistry, clinical ethics, theology, education, law, accounting or business, journalism, philosophy, political and social sciences and women's studies. This literature spanned 1970 to 2006 and was sorted by discipline and concept dimensions and examined for concept structure and use across various contexts. The analysis was completed in September 2007. Ethical sensitivity in professional practice develops in contexts of uncertainty, client suffering and vulnerability, and through relationships characterized by receptivity, responsiveness and courage on the part of professionals. Essential attributes of ethical sensitivity are identified as moral perception, affectivity and dividing loyalties. Outcomes include integrity preserving decision-making, comfort and well-being, learning and professional transcendence. Our findings promote ethical sensitivity as a type of practical wisdom that pursues client comfort and professional satisfaction with care delivery. The analysis and resulting model offers an inclusive view of ethical sensitivity that addresses some of the limitations with prior conceptualizations.
LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.
2014-01-01
This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)
Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Castillo, Enrique; Minguez, Roberto; Castillo, Carmen
2008-01-01
The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods
Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es
2008-12-15
The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.
Techniques for sensitivity analysis of SYVAC results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prust, J.O.
1985-05-01
Sensitivity analysis techniques may be required to examine the sensitivity of SYVAC model predictions to the input parameter values, the subjective probability distributions assigned to the input parameters and to the relationship between dose and the probability of fatal cancers plus serious hereditary disease in the first two generations of offspring of a member of the critical group. This report mainly considers techniques for determining the sensitivity of dose and risk to the variable input parameters. The performance of a sensitivity analysis technique may be improved by decomposing the model and data into subsets for analysis, making use of existing information on sensitivity and concentrating sampling in regions the parameter space that generates high doses or risks. A number of sensitivity analysis techniques are reviewed for their application to the SYVAC model including four techniques tested in an earlier study by CAP Scientific for the SYVAC project. This report recommends the development now of a method for evaluating the derivative of dose and parameter value and extending the Kruskal-Wallis technique to test for interactions between parameters. It is also recommended that the sensitivity of the output of each sub-model of SYVAC to input parameter values should be examined. (author)
Giuliani, Matteo; Mason, Emanuele; Castelletti, Andrea; Pianosi, Francesca
2014-05-01
The optimal operation of water resources systems is a wide and challenging problem due to non-linearities in the model and the objectives, high dimensional state-control space, and strong uncertainties in the hydroclimatic regimes. The application of classical optimization techniques (e.g., SDP, Q-learning, gradient descent-based algorithms) is strongly limited by the dimensionality of the system and by the presence of multiple, conflicting objectives. This study presents a novel approach which combines Direct Policy Search (DPS) and Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) to solve high-dimensional state and control space problems involving multiple objectives. DPS, also known as parameterization-simulation-optimization in the water resources literature, is a simulation-based approach where the reservoir operating policy is first parameterized within a given family of functions and, then, the parameters optimized with respect to the objectives of the management problem. The selection of a suitable class of functions to which the operating policy belong to is a key step, as it might restrict the search for the optimal policy to a subspace of the decision space that does not include the optimal solution. In the water reservoir literature, a number of classes have been proposed. However, many of these rules are based largely on empirical or experimental successes and they were designed mostly via simulation and for single-purpose reservoirs. In a multi-objective context similar rules can not easily inferred from the experience and the use of universal function approximators is generally preferred. In this work, we comparatively analyze two among the most common universal approximators: artificial neural networks (ANN) and radial basis functions (RBF) under different problem settings to estimate their scalability and flexibility in dealing with more and more complex problems. The multi-purpose HoaBinh water reservoir in Vietnam, accounting for hydropower
Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.
2006-01-01
The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present
Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.
2006-08-01
The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present.
Li, Meng-Hua
2014-01-01
When an enterprise has thousands of varieties in its inventory, the use of a single management method could not be a feasible approach. A better way to manage this problem would be to categorise inventory items into several clusters according to inventory decisions and to use different management methods for managing different clusters. The present study applies DPSO (dynamic particle swarm optimisation) to a problem of clustering of inventory items. Without the requirement of prior inventory knowledge, inventory items are automatically clustered into near optimal clustering number. The obtained clustering results should satisfy the inventory objective equation, which consists of different objectives such as total cost, backorder rate, demand relevance, and inventory turnover rate. This study integrates the above four objectives into a multiobjective equation, and inputs the actual inventory items of the enterprise into DPSO. In comparison with other clustering methods, the proposed method can consider different objectives and obtain an overall better solution to obtain better convergence results and inventory decisions. PMID:25197713
Dynamic Resonance Sensitivity Analysis in Wind Farms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei
2017-01-01
(PFs) are calculated by critical eigenvalue sensitivity analysis versus the entries of the MIMO matrix. The PF analysis locates the most exciting bus of the resonances, where can be the best location to install the passive or active filters to reduce the harmonic resonance problems. Time...
Multi-objective optimization of a vertical ground source heat pump using evolutionary algorithm
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sayyaadi, Hoseyn; Amlashi, Emad Hadaddi; Amidpour, Majid
2009-01-01
Thermodynamic and thermoeconomic optimization of a vertical ground source heat pump system has been studied. A model based on the energy and exergy analysis is presented here. An economic model of the system is developed according to the Total Revenue Requirement (TRR) method. The objective functions based on the thermodynamic and thermoeconomic analysis are developed. The proposed vertical ground source heat pump system including eight decision variables is considered for optimization. An artificial intelligence technique known as evolutionary algorithm (EA) has been utilized as an optimization method. This approach has been applied to minimize either the total levelized cost of the system product or the exergy destruction of the system. Three levels of optimization including thermodynamic single objective, thermoeconomic single objective and multi-objective optimizations are performed. In Multi-objective optimization, both thermodynamic and thermoeconomic objectives are considered, simultaneously. In the case of multi-objective optimization, an example of decision-making process for selection of the final solution from available optimal points on Pareto frontier is presented. The results obtained using the various optimization approaches are compared and discussed. Further, the sensitivity of optimized systems to the interest rate, to the annual number of operating hours and to the electricity cost are studied in detail.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Greenspan, E.
1982-01-01
This chapter presents the mathematical basis for sensitivity functions, discusses their physical meaning and information they contain, and clarifies a number of issues concerning their application, including the definition of group sensitivities, the selection of sensitivity functions to be included in the analysis, and limitations of sensitivity theory. Examines the theoretical foundation; criticality reset sensitivities; group sensitivities and uncertainties; selection of sensitivities included in the analysis; and other uses and limitations of sensitivity functions. Gives the theoretical formulation of sensitivity functions pertaining to ''as-built'' designs for performance parameters of the form of ratios of linear flux functionals (such as reaction-rate ratios), linear adjoint functionals, bilinear functions (such as reactivity worth ratios), and for reactor reactivity. Offers a consistent procedure for reducing energy-dependent or fine-group sensitivities and uncertainties to broad group sensitivities and uncertainties. Provides illustrations of sensitivity functions as well as references to available compilations of such functions and of total sensitivities. Indicates limitations of sensitivity theory originating from the fact that this theory is based on a first-order perturbation theory
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.
Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip
2015-12-01
Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.
TOLERANCE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THIRTY YEARS LATER
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard E. Wendell
2010-12-01
Full Text Available Tolerance sensitivity analysis was conceived in 1980 as a pragmatic approach to effectively characterize a parametric region over which objective function coefficients and right-hand-side terms in linear programming could vary simultaneously and independently while maintaining the same optimal basis. As originally proposed, the tolerance region corresponds to the maximum percentage by which coefficients or terms could vary from their estimated values. Over the last thirty years the original results have been extended in a number of ways and applied in a variety of applications. This paper is a critical review of tolerance sensitivity analysis, including extensions and applications.
Multi-objective approach in thermoenvironomic optimization of a benchmark cogeneration system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sayyaadi, Hoseyn
2009-01-01
Multi-objective optimization for designing of a benchmark cogeneration system known as CGAM cogeneration system has been performed. In optimization approach, the exergetic, economic and environmental aspects have been considered, simultaneously. The thermodynamic modeling has been implemented comprehensively while economic analysis conducted in accordance with the total revenue requirement (TRR) method. The results for the single objective thermoeconomic optimization have been compared with the previous studies in optimization of CGAM problem. In multi-objective optimization of the CGAM problem, the three objective functions including the exergetic efficiency, total levelized cost rate of the system product and the cost rate of environmental impact have been considered. The environmental impact objective function has been defined and expressed in cost terms. This objective has been integrated with the thermoeconomic objective to form a new unique objective function known as a thermoenvironomic objective function. The thermoenvironomic objective has been minimized while the exergetic objective has been maximized. One of the most suitable optimization techniques developed using a particular class of search algorithms known as multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) has been considered here. This approach which is developed based on the genetic algorithm has been applied to find the set of Pareto optimal solutions with respect to the aforementioned objective functions. An example of decision-making has been presented and a final optimal solution has been introduced. The sensitivity of the solutions to the interest rate and the fuel cost has been studied
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cheung, Brian C.; Carriveau, Rupp; Ting, David S.K.
2014-01-01
This paper presents the findings from a multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization study on the design parameters of an underwater compressed air energy storage system (UWCAES). A 4 MWh UWCAES system was numerically simulated and its energy, exergy, and exergoeconomics were analysed. Optimal system configurations were determined that maximized the UWCAES system round-trip efficiency and operating profit, and minimized the cost rate of exergy destruction and capital expenditures. The optimal solutions obtained from the multi-objective optimization model formed a Pareto-optimal front, and a single preferred solution was selected using the pseudo-weight vector multi-criteria decision making approach. A sensitivity analysis was performed on interest rates to gauge its impact on preferred system designs. Results showed similar preferred system designs for all interest rates in the studied range. The round-trip efficiency and operating profit of the preferred system designs were approximately 68.5% and $53.5/cycle, respectively. The cost rate of the system increased with interest rates. - Highlights: • UWCAES system configurations were developed using multi-objective optimization. • System was optimized for energy efficiency, exergy, and exergoeconomics • Pareto-optimal solution surfaces were developed at different interest rates. • Similar preferred system configurations were found at all interest rates studied
Sensitivity Analysis of Centralized Dynamic Cell Selection
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lopez, Victor Fernandez; Alvarez, Beatriz Soret; Pedersen, Klaus I.
2016-01-01
and a suboptimal optimization algorithm that nearly achieves the performance of the optimal Hungarian assignment. Moreover, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis with different network and traffic configurations is carried out in order to understand what conditions are more appropriate for the use of the proposed...
Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lemaitre, Paul
2014-01-01
This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)
Applications of advances in nonlinear sensitivity analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Werbos, P J
1982-01-01
The following paper summarizes the major properties and applications of a collection of algorithms involving differentiation and optimization at minimum cost. The areas of application include the sensitivity analysis of models, new work in statistical or econometric estimation, optimization, artificial intelligence and neuron modelling.
*Corresponding Author Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Michael Horsfall
The numerical method of sensitivity or the principle of parsimony ... analysis is a widely applied numerical method often being used in the .... Chemical Engineering Journal 128(2-3), 85-93. Amod S ... coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter.
Kurek, Wojciech; Ostfeld, Avi
2013-01-30
A multi-objective methodology utilizing the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA2) linked to EPANET for trading-off pumping costs, water quality, and tanks sizing of water distribution systems is developed and demonstrated. The model integrates variable speed pumps for modeling the pumps operation, two water quality objectives (one based on chlorine disinfectant concentrations and one on water age), and tanks sizing cost which are assumed to vary with location and diameter. The water distribution system is subject to extended period simulations, variable energy tariffs, Kirchhoff's laws 1 and 2 for continuity of flow and pressure, tanks water level closure constraints, and storage-reliability requirements. EPANET Example 3 is employed for demonstrating the methodology on two multi-objective models, which differ in the imposed water quality objective (i.e., either with disinfectant or water age considerations). Three-fold Pareto optimal fronts are presented. Sensitivity analysis on the storage-reliability constraint, its influence on pumping cost, water quality, and tank sizing are explored. The contribution of this study is in tailoring design (tank sizing), pumps operational costs, water quality of two types, and reliability through residual storage requirements, in a single multi-objective framework. The model was found to be stable in generating multi-objective three-fold Pareto fronts, while producing explainable engineering outcomes. The model can be used as a decision tool for both pumps operation, water quality, required storage for reliability considerations, and tank sizing decision-making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Bo; Wang, Shuming; Zhou, Xianzhong; Watada, Junzo
2016-01-01
Recent years have witnessed the ever increasing renewable penetration in power generation systems, which entails modern unit commitment problems with modelling and computation burdens. This study aims to simulate the impacts of manifold uncertainties on system operation with emission concerns. First, probability theory and fuzzy set theory are applied to jointly represent the uncertainties such as wind generation, load fluctuation and unit outage that interleaved in unit commitment problems. Second, a Value-at-Risk-based multi-objective approach is developed as a bridge of existing stochastic and robust unit commitment optimizations, which not only captures the inherent conflict between operation cost and supply reliability, but also provides easy-to-adjust robustness against worst-case scenarios. Third, a multi-objective algorithm that integrates fuzzy simulation and particle swarm optimization is developed to achieve approximate Pareto-optimal solutions. The research effectiveness is exemplified by two case studies: The comparison between test systems with and without generation uncertainty demonstrates that this study is practicable and can suggest operational insights of generation mix systems. The sensitivity analysis on Value-at-Risk proves that our method can achieve adequate tradeoff between performance optimality and robustness, thus help system operators in making informed decisions. Finally, the model and algorithm comparisons also justify the superiority of this research. - Highlights: • Probability theory and fuzzy set theory are used to describe different uncertainties. • A Value-at-Risk-based multi-objective unit commitment model is proposed. • An improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed. • The model achieves adequate trade-off between performance optimality and robustness. • The algorithm can obtain convergent and diversified Pareto fronts.
Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Athena Forghani
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.
Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Athena Forghani
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.
Sensitivity analysis and related analysis : A survey of statistical techniques
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
1995-01-01
This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical
Fuzzy Multi-objective Linear Programming Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amna Rehmat
2007-07-01
Full Text Available Traveling salesman problem (TSP is one of the challenging real-life problems, attracting researchers of many fields including Artificial Intelligence, Operations Research, and Algorithm Design and Analysis. The problem has been well studied till now under different headings and has been solved with different approaches including genetic algorithms and linear programming. Conventional linear programming is designed to deal with crisp parameters, but information about real life systems is often available in the form of vague descriptions. Fuzzy methods are designed to handle vague terms, and are most suited to finding optimal solutions to problems with vague parameters. Fuzzy multi-objective linear programming, an amalgamation of fuzzy logic and multi-objective linear programming, deals with flexible aspiration levels or goals and fuzzy constraints with acceptable deviations. In this paper, a methodology, for solving a TSP with imprecise parameters, is deployed using fuzzy multi-objective linear programming. An example of TSP with multiple objectives and vague parameters is discussed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hashim, M.; Nazam, M.; Yao, L.; Baig, S.A.; Abrar, M.; Zia-ur-Rehman, M.
2017-07-01
The incorporation of environmental objective into the conventional supplier selection practices is crucial for corporations seeking to promote green supply chain management (GSCM). Challenges and risks associated with green supplier selection have been broadly recognized by procurement and supplier management professionals. This paper aims to solve a Tetra “S” (SSSS) problem based on a fuzzy multi-objective optimization with genetic algorithm in a holistic supply chain environment. In this empirical study, a mathematical model with fuzzy coefficients is considered for sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS) problem and a corresponding model is developed to tackle this problem. Design/methodology/approach: Sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS) decisions are typically multi-objectives in nature and it is an important part of green production and supply chain management for many firms. The proposed uncertain model is transferred into deterministic model by applying the expected value mesurement (EVM) and genetic algorithm with weighted sum approach for solving the multi-objective problem. This research focus on a multi-objective optimization model for minimizing lean cost, maximizing sustainable service and greener product quality level. Finally, a mathematical case of textile sector is presented to exemplify the effectiveness of the proposed model with a sensitivity analysis. Findings: This study makes a certain contribution by introducing the Tetra ‘S’ concept in both the theoretical and practical research related to multi-objective optimization as well as in the study of sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS) under uncertain environment. Our results suggest that decision makers tend to select strategic supplier first then enhance the sustainability. Research limitations/implications: Although the fuzzy expected value model (EVM) with fuzzy coefficients constructed in present research should be helpful for solving real world
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Hashim
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The incorporation of environmental objective into the conventional supplier selection practices is crucial for corporations seeking to promote green supply chain management (GSCM. Challenges and risks associated with green supplier selection have been broadly recognized by procurement and supplier management professionals. This paper aims to solve a Tetra “S” (SSSS problem based on a fuzzy multi-objective optimization with genetic algorithm in a holistic supply chain environment. In this empirical study, a mathematical model with fuzzy coefficients is considered for sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS problem and a corresponding model is developed to tackle this problem. Design/methodology/approach: Sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS decisions are typically multi-objectives in nature and it is an important part of green production and supply chain management for many firms. The proposed uncertain model is transferred into deterministic model by applying the expected value mesurement (EVM and genetic algorithm with weighted sum approach for solving the multi-objective problem. This research focus on a multi-objective optimization model for minimizing lean cost, maximizing sustainable service and greener product quality level. Finally, a mathematical case of textile sector is presented to exemplify the effectiveness of the proposed model with a sensitivity analysis. Findings: This study makes a certain contribution by introducing the Tetra ‘S’ concept in both the theoretical and practical research related to multi-objective optimization as well as in the study of sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS under uncertain environment. Our results suggest that decision makers tend to select strategic supplier first then enhance the sustainability. Research limitations/implications: Although the fuzzy expected value model (EVM with fuzzy coefficients constructed in present research should be helpful for
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hashim, M.; Nazam, M.; Yao, L.; Baig, S.A.; Abrar, M.; Zia-ur-Rehman, M.
2017-01-01
The incorporation of environmental objective into the conventional supplier selection practices is crucial for corporations seeking to promote green supply chain management (GSCM). Challenges and risks associated with green supplier selection have been broadly recognized by procurement and supplier management professionals. This paper aims to solve a Tetra “S” (SSSS) problem based on a fuzzy multi-objective optimization with genetic algorithm in a holistic supply chain environment. In this empirical study, a mathematical model with fuzzy coefficients is considered for sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS) problem and a corresponding model is developed to tackle this problem. Design/methodology/approach: Sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS) decisions are typically multi-objectives in nature and it is an important part of green production and supply chain management for many firms. The proposed uncertain model is transferred into deterministic model by applying the expected value mesurement (EVM) and genetic algorithm with weighted sum approach for solving the multi-objective problem. This research focus on a multi-objective optimization model for minimizing lean cost, maximizing sustainable service and greener product quality level. Finally, a mathematical case of textile sector is presented to exemplify the effectiveness of the proposed model with a sensitivity analysis. Findings: This study makes a certain contribution by introducing the Tetra ‘S’ concept in both the theoretical and practical research related to multi-objective optimization as well as in the study of sustainable strategic supplier selection (SSSS) under uncertain environment. Our results suggest that decision makers tend to select strategic supplier first then enhance the sustainability. Research limitations/implications: Although the fuzzy expected value model (EVM) with fuzzy coefficients constructed in present research should be helpful for solving real world
Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.
Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet
2017-02-01
Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.
Global sensitivity analysis by polynomial dimensional decomposition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rahman, Sharif, E-mail: rahman@engineering.uiowa.ed [College of Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)
2011-07-15
This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol's method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent.
Demonstration sensitivity analysis for RADTRAN III
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neuhauser, K.S.; Reardon, P.C.
1986-10-01
A demonstration sensitivity analysis was performed to: quantify the relative importance of 37 variables to the total incident free dose; assess the elasticity of seven dose subgroups to those same variables; develop density distributions for accident dose to combinations of accident data under wide-ranging variations; show the relationship between accident consequences and probabilities of occurrence; and develop limits for the variability of probability consequence curves
Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki
2005-02-01
Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of criticality experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons; the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For
Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki
2004-02-01
To practical use of fact reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoints of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor core 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, development of a analysis code for burnup sensitivity, SAGEP-BURN, has been done and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to user due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functionalities in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for some reasons; computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For this
Adaptive scalarization methods in multiobjective optimization
Eichfelder, Gabriele
2008-01-01
This book presents adaptive solution methods for multiobjective optimization problems based on parameter dependent scalarization approaches. Readers will benefit from the new adaptive methods and ideas for solving multiobjective optimization.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barber, A. D.; Busch, R.
2009-01-01
The goal of this work is to obtain sensitivities from direct uncertainty analysis calculation and correlate those calculated values with the sensitivities produced from TSUNAMI-3D (Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation in Three Dimensions). A full sensitivity analysis is performed on a critical experiment to determine the overall uncertainty of the experiment. Small perturbation calculations are performed for all known uncertainties to obtain the total uncertainty of the experiment. The results from a critical experiment are only known as well as the geometric and material properties. The goal of this relationship is to simplify the uncertainty quantification process in assessing a critical experiment, while still considering all of the important parameters. (authors)
Sensitivity analysis of the Two Geometry Method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wichers, V.A.
1993-09-01
The Two Geometry Method (TGM) was designed specifically for the verification of the uranium enrichment of low enriched UF 6 gas in the presence of uranium deposits on the pipe walls. Complications can arise if the TGM is applied under extreme conditions, such as deposits larger than several times the gas activity, small pipe diameters less than 40 mm and low pressures less than 150 Pa. This report presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the TGM. The impact of the various sources of uncertainty on the performance of the method is discussed. The application to a practical case is based on worst case conditions with regards to the measurement conditions, and on realistic conditions with respect to the false alarm probability and the non detection probability. Monte Carlo calculations were used to evaluate the sensitivity for sources of uncertainty which are experimentally inaccessible. (orig.)
Sensitivity analysis of reactive ecological dynamics.
Verdy, Ariane; Caswell, Hal
2008-08-01
Ecological systems with asymptotically stable equilibria may exhibit significant transient dynamics following perturbations. In some cases, these transient dynamics include the possibility of excursions away from the equilibrium before the eventual return; systems that exhibit such amplification of perturbations are called reactive. Reactivity is a common property of ecological systems, and the amplification can be large and long-lasting. The transient response of a reactive ecosystem depends on the parameters of the underlying model. To investigate this dependence, we develop sensitivity analyses for indices of transient dynamics (reactivity, the amplification envelope, and the optimal perturbation) in both continuous- and discrete-time models written in matrix form. The sensitivity calculations require expressions, some of them new, for the derivatives of equilibria, eigenvalues, singular values, and singular vectors, obtained using matrix calculus. Sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative framework for investigating the mechanisms leading to transient growth. We apply the methodology to a predator-prey model and a size-structured food web model. The results suggest predator-driven and prey-driven mechanisms for transient amplification resulting from multispecies interactions.
Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sudret, Bruno
2008-01-01
Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices
Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sudret, Bruno [Electricite de France, R and D Division, Site des Renardieres, F 77818 Moret-sur-Loing Cedex (France)], E-mail: bruno.sudret@edf.fr
2008-07-15
Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices.
Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jacques, J.
2005-12-01
Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)
Multiobjective Optimization Involving Quadratic Functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oscar Brito Augusto
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Multiobjective optimization is nowadays a word of order in engineering projects. Although the idea involved is simple, the implementation of any procedure to solve a general problem is not an easy task. Evolutionary algorithms are widespread as a satisfactory technique to find a candidate set for the solution. Usually they supply a discrete picture of the Pareto front even if this front is continuous. In this paper we propose three methods for solving unconstrained multiobjective optimization problems involving quadratic functions. In the first, for biobjective optimization defined in the bidimensional space, a continuous Pareto set is found analytically. In the second, applicable to multiobjective optimization, a condition test is proposed to check if a point in the decision space is Pareto optimum or not and, in the third, with functions defined in n-dimensional space, a direct noniterative algorithm is proposed to find the Pareto set. Simple problems highlight the suitability of the proposed methods.
Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC
Pressburger, Tom; Hoelscher, Brian; Martin, Rodney; Sricharan, Kumar
2013-01-01
The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.
Sensitivity analysis of floating offshore wind farms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Castro-Santos, Laura; Diaz-Casas, Vicente
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Develop a sensitivity analysis of a floating offshore wind farm. • Influence on the life-cycle costs involved in a floating offshore wind farm. • Influence on IRR, NPV, pay-back period, LCOE and cost of power. • Important variables: distance, wind resource, electric tariff, etc. • It helps to investors to take decisions in the future. - Abstract: The future of offshore wind energy will be in deep waters. In this context, the main objective of the present paper is to develop a sensitivity analysis of a floating offshore wind farm. It will show how much the output variables can vary when the input variables are changing. For this purpose two different scenarios will be taken into account: the life-cycle costs involved in a floating offshore wind farm (cost of conception and definition, cost of design and development, cost of manufacturing, cost of installation, cost of exploitation and cost of dismantling) and the most important economic indexes in terms of economic feasibility of a floating offshore wind farm (internal rate of return, net present value, discounted pay-back period, levelized cost of energy and cost of power). Results indicate that the most important variables in economic terms are the number of wind turbines and the distance from farm to shore in the costs’ scenario, and the wind scale parameter and the electric tariff for the economic indexes. This study will help investors to take into account these variables in the development of floating offshore wind farms in the future
Multi-Objective Analysis for Jointly Reducing Noise and Emissions via ATM/Aircraft Systems, Phase I
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Leveraging extensive experience from Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) environmental analysis, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) National Airspace...
Sensitivity analysis of a modified energy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suganthi, L.; Jagadeesan, T.R.
1997-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is carried out to validate model formulation. A modified model has been developed to predict the future energy requirement of coal, oil and electricity, considering price, income, technological and environmental factors. The impact and sensitivity of the independent variables on the dependent variable are analysed. The error distribution pattern in the modified model as compared to a conventional time series model indicated the absence of clusters. The residual plot of the modified model showed no distinct pattern of variation. The percentage variation of error in the conventional time series model for coal and oil ranges from -20% to +20%, while for electricity it ranges from -80% to +20%. However, in the case of the modified model the percentage variation in error is greatly reduced - for coal it ranges from -0.25% to +0.15%, for oil -0.6% to +0.6% and for electricity it ranges from -10% to +10%. The upper and lower limit consumption levels at 95% confidence is determined. The consumption at varying percentage changes in price and population are analysed. The gap between the modified model predictions at varying percentage changes in price and population over the years from 1990 to 2001 is found to be increasing. This is because of the increasing rate of energy consumption over the years and also the confidence level decreases as the projection is made far into the future. (author)
Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated Software Tools, Phase I
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this proposed project is to provide a new set of sensitivity analysis theory and codes, the Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated...
Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.
Zi, Z
2011-11-01
With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.
A new importance measure for sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Qiao; Homma, Toshimitsu
2010-01-01
Uncertainty is an integral part of risk assessment of complex engineering systems, such as nuclear power plants and space crafts. The aim of sensitivity analysis is to identify the contribution of the uncertainty in model inputs to the uncertainty in the model output. In this study, a new importance measure that characterizes the influence of the entire input distribution on the entire output distribution was proposed. It represents the expected deviation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the model output that would be obtained when one input parameter of interest were known. The applicability of this importance measure was tested with two models, a nonlinear nonmonotonic mathematical model and a risk model. In addition, a comparison of this new importance measure with several other importance measures was carried out and the differences between these measures were explained. (author)
DEA Sensitivity Analysis for Parallel Production Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Gerami
2011-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce systems consisting of several production units, each of which include several subunits working in parallel. Meanwhile, each subunit is working independently. The input and output of each production unit are the sums of the inputs and outputs of its subunits, respectively. We consider each of these subunits as an independent decision making unit(DMU and create the production possibility set(PPS produced by these DMUs, in which the frontier points are considered as efficient DMUs. Then we introduce models for obtaining the efficiency of the production subunits. Using super-efficiency models, we categorize all efficient subunits into different efficiency classes. Then we follow by presenting the sensitivity analysis and stability problem for efficient subunits, including extreme efficient and non-extreme efficient subunits, assuming simultaneous perturbations in all inputs and outputs of subunits such that the efficiency of the subunit under evaluation declines while the efficiencies of other subunits improve.
Sensitivity of SBLOCA analysis to model nodalization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, C.; Ito, T.; Abramson, P.B.
1983-01-01
The recent Semiscale test S-UT-8 indicates the possibility for primary liquid to hang up in the steam generators during a SBLOCA, permitting core uncovery prior to loop-seal clearance. In analysis of Small Break Loss of Coolant Accidents with RELAP5, it is found that resultant transient behavior is quite sensitive to the selection of nodalization for the steam generators. Although global parameters such as integrated mass loss, primary inventory and primary pressure are relatively insensitive to the nodalization, it is found that the predicted distribution of inventory around the primary is significantly affected by nodalization. More detailed nodalization predicts that more of the inventory tends to remain in the steam generators, resulting in less inventory in the reactor vessel and therefore causing earlier and more severe core uncovery
Subset simulation for structural reliability sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song Shufang; Lu Zhenzhou; Qiao Hongwei
2009-01-01
Based on two procedures for efficiently generating conditional samples, i.e. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and importance sampling (IS), two reliability sensitivity (RS) algorithms are presented. On the basis of reliability analysis of Subset simulation (Subsim), the RS of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable is transformed as a set of RS of conditional failure probabilities with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable. By use of the conditional samples generated by MCMC simulation and IS, procedures are established to estimate the RS of the conditional failure probabilities. The formulae of the RS estimator, its variance and its coefficient of variation are derived in detail. The results of the illustrations show high efficiency and high precision of the presented algorithms, and it is suitable for highly nonlinear limit state equation and structural system with single and multiple failure modes
Calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis: What's what
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trucano, T.G.; Swiler, L.P.; Igusa, T.; Oberkampf, W.L.; Pilch, M.
2006-01-01
One very simple interpretation of calibration is to adjust a set of parameters associated with a computational science and engineering code so that the model agreement is maximized with respect to a set of experimental data. One very simple interpretation of validation is to quantify our belief in the predictive capability of a computational code through comparison with a set of experimental data. Uncertainty in both the data and the code are important and must be mathematically understood to correctly perform both calibration and validation. Sensitivity analysis, being an important methodology in uncertainty analysis, is thus important to both calibration and validation. In this paper, we intend to clarify the language just used and express some opinions on the associated issues. We will endeavor to identify some technical challenges that must be resolved for successful validation of a predictive modeling capability. One of these challenges is a formal description of a 'model discrepancy' term. Another challenge revolves around the general adaptation of abstract learning theory as a formalism that potentially encompasses both calibration and validation in the face of model uncertainty
Global sensitivity analysis in wind energy assessment
Tsvetkova, O.; Ouarda, T. B.
2012-12-01
Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, it is not yet a common source of energy, although there is enough wind potential to supply world's energy demand. One of the most prominent obstacles on the way of employing wind energy is the uncertainty associated with wind energy assessment. Global sensitivity analysis (SA) studies how the variation of input parameters in an abstract model effects the variation of the variable of interest or the output variable. It also provides ways to calculate explicit measures of importance of input variables (first order and total effect sensitivity indices) in regard to influence on the variation of the output variable. Two methods of determining the above mentioned indices were applied and compared: the brute force method and the best practice estimation procedure In this study a methodology for conducting global SA of wind energy assessment at a planning stage is proposed. Three sampling strategies which are a part of SA procedure were compared: sampling based on Sobol' sequences (SBSS), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and pseudo-random sampling (PRS). A case study of Masdar City, a showcase of sustainable living in the UAE, is used to exemplify application of the proposed methodology. Sources of uncertainty in wind energy assessment are very diverse. In the case study the following were identified as uncertain input parameters: the Weibull shape parameter, the Weibull scale parameter, availability of a wind turbine, lifetime of a turbine, air density, electrical losses, blade losses, ineffective time losses. Ineffective time losses are defined as losses during the time when the actual wind speed is lower than the cut-in speed or higher than the cut-out speed. The output variable in the case study is the lifetime energy production. Most influential factors for lifetime energy production are identified with the ranking of the total effect sensitivity indices. The results of the present
Frontier Assignment for Sensitivity Analysis of Data Envelopment Analysis
Naito, Akio; Aoki, Shingo; Tsuji, Hiroshi
To extend the sensitivity analysis capability for DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), this paper proposes frontier assignment based DEA (FA-DEA). The basic idea of FA-DEA is to allow a decision maker to decide frontier intentionally while the traditional DEA and Super-DEA decide frontier computationally. The features of FA-DEA are as follows: (1) provides chances to exclude extra-influential DMU (Decision Making Unit) and finds extra-ordinal DMU, and (2) includes the function of the traditional DEA and Super-DEA so that it is able to deal with sensitivity analysis more flexibly. Simple numerical study has shown the effectiveness of the proposed FA-DEA and the difference from the traditional DEA.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
SAURABH KUMAR GUPTA
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The present research focus on optimization of Friction Stir Welding (FSW process parameters for joining of AA6061 aluminium alloy using hybrid approach. The FSW process parameters considered are tool rotational speed, welding speed and axial force. The quality characteristics considered are tensile strength (TS and percentage of tensile elongation (TE. Taguchi based experimental design L9 orthogonal array is used for determining the experimental results. The value of weights corresponding to each quality characteristic is determined by using the entropy measurement method so that their importance can be properly explained. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA is used to determine the contribution of FSW process parameters. The confirmation tests also have been done for verifying the results.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sreenivasan KONGANAPURAM SUNDARARAJAN
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Aluminium metal matrix composites has gained importance in recent time because of its improved mechanical and metallurgical properties. The welding of aluminium metal matrix composites using conventional welding process has got many demerits so in order to overcome them a solid state welding process is to be employed. To achieve a good strength weld in the aluminium metal matrix composite bars an efficient and most preferred technique is friction welding. In this work the aluminium metal matrix composite AA7075 + 10 % vol SiC-T6 is selected and friction welded. The combination of friction welding process parameters such as spindle speed, friction pressure, upset pressure and burn-off- length for joining the AA7075 + 10 % vol SiCP-T6 metal matrix composite bars are selected by Taguchi’s design of experiment. The optimum friction welding parameters were determined for achieving improved ultimate tensile strength and the hardness using grey relational analysis. A combined grey relational grade is found from the determined grey relational coefficient of the output responses and the optimum friction welding process parameters were obtained as spindle speed – 1200 rpm, friction pressure – 100 MPa, upset pressure – 250 MPa, Burn-off-Length – 2 mm. Analysis of variance (ANOVA performed shows that the friction pressure is the most significant friction welding parameter that influences the both the ultimate tensile strength and hardness of friction welded AA7075 + 10 % volSiCP-T6 joints. The fractured surface under microstructure study also revealed good compliance with the grey relational grade result. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ms.24.2.17725
Multi-objective optimization of coal-fired power plants using differential evolution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Ligang; Yang, Yongping; Dong, Changqing; Morosuk, Tatiana; Tsatsaronis, George
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Multi-objective optimization of large-scale coal-fired power plants using differential evolution. • A newly-proposed algorithm for searching the fronts of decision space in a single run. • A reduction of cost of electricity by 2–4% with an optimal efficiency increase up to 2% points. • The uncertainty comes mainly from temperature- and reheat-related cost factors of steam generator. • An exergoeconomic analysis and comparison between optimal designs and one real industrial design. - Abstract: The design trade-offs between thermodynamics and economics for thermal systems can be studied with the aid of multi-objective optimization techniques. The investment costs usually increase with increasing thermodynamic performance of a system. In this paper, an enhanced differential evolution with diversity-preserving and density-adjusting mechanisms, and a newly-proposed algorithm for searching the decision space frontier in a single run were used, to conduct the multi-objective optimization of large-scale, supercritical coal-fired plants. The uncertainties associated with cost functions were discussed by analyzing the sensitivity of the decision space frontier to some significant parameters involved in cost functions. Comparisons made with the aid of an exergoeconomic analysis between the cost minimum designs and a real industrial design demonstrated how the plant improvement was achieved. It is concluded that the cost of electricity could be reduced by a 2–4%, whereas the efficiency could be increased by up to two percentage points. The largest uncertainty is introduced by the temperature-related and reheat-related cost coefficients of the steam generator. More reliable data on the price prediction of future advanced materials should be used to obtain more accurate fronts of the objective space
Sensitivity analysis of Smith's AMRV model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ho, Chih-Hsiang
1995-01-01
Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameter p is elicited on the prior distribution, π (p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π (p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruption p, win eventually be averaged out by taking the expectation over π (p). We use the following priors in the analysis: priors chosen for mathematical convenience: Beta (r, s) for (r, s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1), (2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1); and three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Estimated values of hazard based on the priors chosen for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8,2), yields the highest hazard (= 2.97 X 10 -2 ). The minimum hazard is produced by the open-quotes three-expert priorclose quotes (i.e., values of p are equally likely at 10 -3 10 -2 , and 10 -1 ). The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 x which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, open-quotes hazardclose quotes, is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baglivo, Cristina; Congedo, Paolo Maria
2015-01-01
Taking into account the global environmental problems, there is the urgent need to reduce energy consumption and the greenhouse gas emissions in the construction sector. Environmental awareness can be achieved through the extensive application of precast systems in buildings construction. A multi-criteria analysis has been used to obtain energy-efficient precast walls for Zero Energy Building in warm climate focusing on eco-friendly building materials. The modeFRONTIER optimization tool, with the use of computational procedures developed in Matlab, has been used to assess the thermal dynamics of building components. The optimization has been carried out in terms of steady thermal transmittance, periodic thermal transmittance, decrement factor, time shift, areal heat capacity, thermal admittance, surface mass, small thickness, eco sustainability score, light-weight and costs. The best sequences of layers show repetitive features: high surface mass for the first layer (internal side), followed by eco-friendly insulating materials for the middle layer and common insulating materials for the outer layer. The results illustrate that it is possible to obtain high performance precast multi-layered walls also with light and thin solutions; in particular, the superficial mass and the internal areal heat capacity have an important role to obtain the best performance in the warm climate. - Highlights: • Environmental awareness through the application of prefabrication systems. • The precast allows important benefits compared to traditional walls build in situ. • At the end of their useful life, the precast can be re-used. • Precast walls with very high efficiency for warm climates. • High internal areal heat capacity avoids events of overheating/cooling down.
Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract
Harris, Adam
2015-01-01
During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.
Supercritical extraction of oleaginous: parametric sensitivity analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Santos M.M.
2000-01-01
Full Text Available The economy has become universal and competitive, thus the industries of vegetable oil extraction must advance in the sense of minimising production costs and, at the same time, generating products that obey more rigorous patterns of quality, including solutions that do not damage the environment. The conventional oilseed processing uses hexane as solvent. However, this solvent is toxic and highly flammable. Thus the search of substitutes for hexane in oleaginous extraction process has increased in the last years. The supercritical carbon dioxide is a potential substitute for hexane, but it is necessary more detailed studies to understand the phenomena taking place in such process. Thus, in this work a diffusive model for semi-continuous (batch for the solids and continuous for the solvent isothermal and isobaric extraction process using supercritical carbon dioxide is presented and submitted to a parametric sensitivity analysis by means of a factorial design in two levels. The model parameters were disturbed and their main effects analysed, so that it is possible to propose strategies for high performance operation.
Sensitivity analysis of ranked data: from order statistics to quantiles
Heidergott, B.F.; Volk-Makarewicz, W.
2015-01-01
In this paper we provide the mathematical theory for sensitivity analysis of order statistics of continuous random variables, where the sensitivity is with respect to a distributional parameter. Sensitivity analysis of order statistics over a finite number of observations is discussed before
SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gerstl, S.A.W.
1980-01-01
SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE
Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.
Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T
2013-05-02
A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis.
Sensitivity analysis in multi-parameter probabilistic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Walker, J.R.
1987-01-01
Probabilistic methods involving the use of multi-parameter Monte Carlo analysis can be applied to a wide range of engineering systems. The output from the Monte Carlo analysis is a probabilistic estimate of the system consequence, which can vary spatially and temporally. Sensitivity analysis aims to examine how the output consequence is influenced by the input parameter values. Sensitivity analysis provides the necessary information so that the engineering properties of the system can be optimized. This report details a package of sensitivity analysis techniques that together form an integrated methodology for the sensitivity analysis of probabilistic systems. The techniques have known confidence limits and can be applied to a wide range of engineering problems. The sensitivity analysis methodology is illustrated by performing the sensitivity analysis of the MCROC rock microcracking model
An ESDIRK Method with Sensitivity Analysis Capabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Morten Rode; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Thomsen, Per Grove
2004-01-01
of the sensitivity equations. A key feature is the reuse of information already computed for the state integration, hereby minimizing the extra effort required for sensitivity integration. Through case studies the new algorithm is compared to an extrapolation method and to the more established BDF based approaches...
Sensitivity Analysis of Fire Dynamics Simulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brohus, Henrik; Nielsen, Peter V.; Petersen, Arnkell J.
2007-01-01
(Morris method). The parameters considered are selected among physical parameters and program specific parameters. The influence on the calculation result as well as the CPU time is considered. It is found that the result is highly sensitive to many parameters even though the sensitivity varies...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahmadi, Pouria; Rosen, Marc A.; Dincer, Ibrahim
2012-01-01
A comprehensive thermodynamic modeling and optimization is reported of a polygeneration energy system for the simultaneous production of heating, cooling, electricity and hot water from a common energy source. This polygeneration system is composed of four major parts: gas turbine (GT) cycle, Rankine cycle, absorption cooling cycle and domestic hot water heater. A multi-objective optimization method based on an evolutionary algorithm is applied to determine the best design parameters for the system. The two objective functions utilized in the analysis are the total cost rate of the system, which is the cost associated with fuel, component purchasing and environmental impact, and the system exergy efficiency. The total cost rate of the system is minimized while the cycle exergy efficiency is maximized by using an evolutionary algorithm. To provide a deeper insight, the Pareto frontier is shown for multi-objective optimization. In addition, a closed form equation for the relationship between exergy efficiency and total cost rate is derived. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the effects of several design parameters on the system total exergy destruction rate, CO 2 emission and exergy efficiency.
Superconducting Accelerating Cavity Pressure Sensitivity Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rodnizki, J.; Horvits, Z.; Ben Aliz, Y.; Grin, A.; Weissman, L.
2014-01-01
The measured sensitivity of the cavity was evaluated and it is full consistent with the measured values. It was explored that the tuning system (the fog structure) has a significant contribution to the cavity sensitivity. By using ribs or by modifying the rigidity of the fog we may reduce the HWR sensitivity. During cool down and warming up we have to analyze the stresses on the HWR to avoid plastic deformation to the HWR since the Niobium yield is an order of magnitude lower in room temperature
Derivative based sensitivity analysis of gamma index
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Biplab Sarkar
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Originally developed as a tool for patient-specific quality assurance in advanced treatment delivery methods to compare between measured and calculated dose distributions, the gamma index (γ concept was later extended to compare between any two dose distributions. It takes into effect both the dose difference (DD and distance-to-agreement (DTA measurements in the comparison. Its strength lies in its capability to give a quantitative value for the analysis, unlike other methods. For every point on the reference curve, if there is at least one point in the evaluated curve that satisfies the pass criteria (e.g., δDD = 1%, δDTA = 1 mm, the point is included in the quantitative score as "pass." Gamma analysis does not account for the gradient of the evaluated curve - it looks at only the minimum gamma value, and if it is <1, then the point passes, no matter what the gradient of evaluated curve is. In this work, an attempt has been made to present a derivative-based method for the identification of dose gradient. A mathematically derived reference profile (RP representing the penumbral region of 6 MV 10 cm × 10 cm field was generated from an error function. A general test profile (GTP was created from this RP by introducing 1 mm distance error and 1% dose error at each point. This was considered as the first of the two evaluated curves. By its nature, this curve is a smooth curve and would satisfy the pass criteria for all points in it. The second evaluated profile was generated as a sawtooth test profile (STTP which again would satisfy the pass criteria for every point on the RP. However, being a sawtooth curve, it is not a smooth one and would be obviously poor when compared with the smooth profile. Considering the smooth GTP as an acceptable profile when it passed the gamma pass criteria (1% DD and 1 mm DTA against the RP, the first and second order derivatives of the DDs (δD', δD" between these two curves were derived and used as the
Interactive Nonlinear Multiobjective Optimization Methods
Miettinen, Kaisa; Hakanen, Jussi; Podkopaev, Dmitry
2016-01-01
An overview of interactive methods for solving nonlinear multiobjective optimization problems is given. In interactive methods, the decision maker progressively provides preference information so that the most satisfactory Pareto optimal solution can be found for her or his. The basic features of several methods are introduced and some theoretical results are provided. In addition, references to modifications and applications as well as to other methods are indicated. As the...
MOVES2010a regional level sensitivity analysis
2012-12-10
This document discusses the sensitivity of various input parameter effects on emission rates using the US Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a model at the regional level. Pollutants included in the study are carbon monoxide (CO),...
A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification
Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori
2018-01-01
Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior
Harshan, S.; Roth, M.; Velasco, E.
2014-12-01
Forecasting of the urban weather and climate is of great importance as our cities become more populated and considering the combined effects of global warming and local land use changes which make urban inhabitants more vulnerable to e.g. heat waves and flash floods. In meso/global scale models, urban parameterization schemes are used to represent the urban effects. However, these schemes require a large set of input parameters related to urban morphological and thermal properties. Obtaining all these parameters through direct measurements are usually not feasible. A number of studies have reported on parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis to adjust and determine the most influential parameters for land surface schemes in non-urban areas. Similar work for urban areas is scarce, in particular studies on urban parameterization schemes in tropical cities have so far not been reported. In order to address above issues, the town energy balance (TEB) urban parameterization scheme (part of the SURFEX land surface modeling system) was subjected to a sensitivity and optimization/parameter estimation experiment at a suburban site in, tropical Singapore. The sensitivity analysis was carried out as a screening test to identify the most sensitive or influential parameters. Thereafter, an optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed to calibrate the input parameter. The sensitivity experiment was based on the "improved Sobol's global variance decomposition method" . The analysis showed that parameters related to road, roof and soil moisture have significant influence on the performance of the model. The optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed using the AMALGM (a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive multi-objective method) evolutionary algorithm. The experiment showed a remarkable improvement compared to the simulations using the default parameter set. The calibrated parameters from this optimization experiment can be used for further model
A hybrid solution approach for a multi-objective closed-loop logistics network under uncertainty
Mehrbod, Mehrdad; Tu, Nan; Miao, Lixin
2015-06-01
The design of closed-loop logistics (forward and reverse logistics) has attracted growing attention with the stringent pressures of customer expectations, environmental concerns and economic factors. This paper considers a multi-product, multi-period and multi-objective closed-loop logistics network model with regard to facility expansion as a facility location-allocation problem, which more closely approximates real-world conditions. A multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming formulation is linearized by defining new variables and adding new constraints to the model. By considering the aforementioned model under uncertainty, this paper develops a hybrid solution approach by combining an interactive fuzzy goal programming approach and robust counterpart optimization based on three well-known robust counterpart optimization formulations. Finally, this paper compares the results of the three formulations using different test scenarios and parameter-sensitive analysis in terms of the quality of the final solution, CPU time, the level of conservatism, the degree of closeness to the ideal solution, the degree of balance involved in developing a compromise solution, and satisfaction degree.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bas, Esra
2011-01-01
In this paper, a general framework for child injury prevention and a multi-objective, multi-dimensional mixed 0-1 knapsack model were developed to determine the optimal time to introduce preventive measures against child injuries. Furthermore, the model maximises the prevention of injuries with the highest risks for each age period by combining preventive measures and supervision as well as satisfying budget limits and supervision time constraints. The risk factors for each injury, variable, and time period were based on risk priority numbers (RPNs) obtained from failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) methodology, and these risk factors were incorporated into the model as objective function parameters. A numerical experiment based on several different situations was conducted, revealing that the model provided optimal timing of preventive measures for child injuries based on variables considered.
Pareto-Optimal Multi-objective Inversion of Geophysical Data
Schnaidt, Sebastian; Conway, Dennis; Krieger, Lars; Heinson, Graham
2018-01-01
In the process of modelling geophysical properties, jointly inverting different data sets can greatly improve model results, provided that the data sets are compatible, i.e., sensitive to similar features. Such a joint inversion requires a relationship between the different data sets, which can either be analytic or structural. Classically, the joint problem is expressed as a scalar objective function that combines the misfit functions of multiple data sets and a joint term which accounts for the assumed connection between the data sets. This approach suffers from two major disadvantages: first, it can be difficult to assess the compatibility of the data sets and second, the aggregation of misfit terms introduces a weighting of the data sets. We present a pareto-optimal multi-objective joint inversion approach based on an existing genetic algorithm. The algorithm treats each data set as a separate objective, avoiding forced weighting and generating curves of the trade-off between the different objectives. These curves are analysed by their shape and evolution to evaluate data set compatibility. Furthermore, the statistical analysis of the generated solution population provides valuable estimates of model uncertainty.
NPV Sensitivity Analysis: A Dynamic Excel Approach
Mangiero, George A.; Kraten, Michael
2017-01-01
Financial analysts generally create static formulas for the computation of NPV. When they do so, however, it is not readily apparent how sensitive the value of NPV is to changes in multiple interdependent and interrelated variables. It is the aim of this paper to analyze this variability by employing a dynamic, visually graphic presentation using…
Sensitivity Analysis for Multidisciplinary Systems (SAMS)
2016-12-01
release. Distribution is unlimited. 14 Server and Client Code Server from geometry import Point, Geometry import math import zmq class Server...public release; Distribution is unlimited. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 19 Example Application Boeing...Materials Conference, 2011. Cross, D. M., Local continuum sensitivity method for shape design derivatives using spatial gradient reconstruction. Diss
Approximating multi-objective scheduling problems
Dabia, S.; Talbi, El-Ghazali; Woensel, van T.; Kok, de A.G.
2013-01-01
In many practical situations, decisions are multi-objective by nature. In this paper, we propose a generic approach to deal with multi-objective scheduling problems (MOSPs). The aim is to determine the set of Pareto solutions that represent the interactions between the different objectives. Due to
Extended forward sensitivity analysis of one-dimensional isothermal flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Johnson, M.; Zhao, H.
2013-01-01
Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is an important part of nuclear safety analysis. In this work, forward sensitivity analysis is used to compute solution sensitivities on 1-D fluid flow equations typical of those found in system level codes. Time step sensitivity analysis is included as a method for determining the accumulated error from time discretization. The ability to quantify numerical error arising from the time discretization is a unique and important feature of this method. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time step with other physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time step forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step convergence studies that are a key part of code verification with much less computational cost. One well-defined benchmark problem with manufactured solutions is utilized to verify the method; another test isothermal flow problem is used to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis process. Through these sample problems, the paper shows the feasibility and potential of using the forward sensitivity analysis method to quantify uncertainty in input parameters and time step size for a 1-D system-level thermal-hydraulic safety code. (authors)
The role of sensitivity analysis in probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.
1987-01-01
The paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PSA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to; (1) boundary conditions, (2) operator actions, and (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are identified continuously in the course of performing a PSA, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PSA study (ASEA-ATOM BWR 75). It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (orig./HP)
Non-convex multi-objective optimization
Pardalos, Panos M; Žilinskas, Julius
2017-01-01
Recent results on non-convex multi-objective optimization problems and methods are presented in this book, with particular attention to expensive black-box objective functions. Multi-objective optimization methods facilitate designers, engineers, and researchers to make decisions on appropriate trade-offs between various conflicting goals. A variety of deterministic and stochastic multi-objective optimization methods are developed in this book. Beginning with basic concepts and a review of non-convex single-objective optimization problems; this book moves on to cover multi-objective branch and bound algorithms, worst-case optimal algorithms (for Lipschitz functions and bi-objective problems), statistical models based algorithms, and probabilistic branch and bound approach. Detailed descriptions of new algorithms for non-convex multi-objective optimization, their theoretical substantiation, and examples for practical applications to the cell formation problem in manufacturing engineering, the process design in...
Automated sensitivity analysis using the GRESS language
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Wright, R.Q.
1986-04-01
An automated procedure for performing large-scale sensitivity studies based on the use of computer calculus is presented. The procedure is embodied in a FORTRAN precompiler called GRESS, which automatically processes computer models and adds derivative-taking capabilities to the normal calculated results. In this report, the GRESS code is described, tested against analytic and numerical test problems, and then applied to a major geohydrological modeling problem. The SWENT nuclear waste repository modeling code is used as the basis for these studies. Results for all problems are discussed in detail. Conclusions are drawn as to the applicability of GRESS in the problems at hand and for more general large-scale modeling sensitivity studies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Davidsen, Claus; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter
2017-01-01
transmission constraints using an optimal power flow approach. Basin inflows, hydropower plant specifications, reservoir characteristics, reservoir rules, irrigation water demand, environmental flow requirements, power demand, and transmission line properties are provided as model inputs. The trade......-established water and power system models to develop a decision support tool combining multiple nexus objectives in a linear objective function. To demonstrate our framework, we compare eight Nepalese power development scenarios based on five nexus objectives: minimization of power deficit, maintenance of water...... availability for irrigation to support food self-sufficiency, reduction in flood risk, maintenance of environmental flows, and maximization of power export. The deterministic multi-objective optimization model is spatially resolved to enable realistic representation of the nexus linkages and accounts for power...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shirazi, Ali; Najafi, Behzad; Aminyavari, Mehdi; Rinaldi, Fabio; Taylor, Robert A.
2014-01-01
In this study, a mathematical model of an ice thermal energy storage (ITES) system for gas turbine cycle inlet air cooling is developed and thermal, economic, and environmental (emissions cost) analyses have been applied to the model. While taking into account conflicting thermodynamic and economic objective functions, a multi-objective genetic algorithm is employed to obtain the optimal design parameters of the plant. Exergetic efficiency is chosen as the thermodynamic objective while the total cost rate of the system including the capital and operational costs of the plant and the social cost of emissions, is considered as the economic objective. Performing the optimization procedure, a set of optimal solutions, called a Pareto front, is obtained. The final optimal design point is determined using TOPSIS decision-making method. This optimum solution results in the exergetic efficiency of 34.06% and the total cost of 28.7 million US$ y −1 . Furthermore, the results demonstrate that inlet air cooling using an ITES system leads to 11.63% and 3.59% improvement in the output power and exergetic efficiency of the plant, respectively. The extra cost associated with using the ITES system is paid back in 4.72 years with the income received from selling the augmented power. - Highlights: • Mathematical model of an ITES system for a GT cycle inlet air cooling is developed. • Exergetic, economic and environmental analyses were performed on the developed model. • Exergy efficiency and total cost rate were considered as the objective functions. • The total cost rate involves the capital, maintenance, operational and emissions costs. • Multi-objective optimization was applied to obtain the Pareto front
Solving stochastic multiobjective vehicle routing problem using probabilistic metaheuristic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gannouni Asmae
2017-01-01
closed form expression. This novel approach is based on combinatorial probability and can be incorporated in a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. (iiProvide probabilistic approaches to elitism and diversification in multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. Finally, The behavior of the resulting Probabilistic Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms (PrMOEAs is empirically investigated on the multi-objective stochastic VRP problem.
Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker
2015-01-01
This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...
Multiobjective optimisation of bogie suspension to boost speed on curves
Milad Mousavi-Bideleh, Seyed; Berbyuk, Viktor
2016-01-01
To improve safety and maximum admissible speed on different operational scenarios, multiobjective optimisation of bogie suspension components of a one-car railway vehicle model is considered. The vehicle model has 50 degrees of freedom and is developed in multibody dynamics software SIMPACK. Track shift force, running stability, and risk of derailment are selected as safety objective functions. The improved maximum admissible speeds of the vehicle on curves are determined based on the track plane accelerations up to 1.5 m/s2. To attenuate the number of design parameters for optimisation and improve the computational efficiency, a global sensitivity analysis is accomplished using the multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM). A multistep optimisation routine based on genetic algorithm (GA) and MATLAB/SIMPACK co-simulation is executed at three levels. The bogie conventional secondary and primary suspension components are chosen as the design parameters in the first two steps, respectively. In the last step semi-active suspension is in focus. The input electrical current to magnetorheological yaw dampers is optimised to guarantee an appropriate safety level. Semi-active controllers are also applied and the respective effects on bogie dynamics are explored. The safety Pareto optimised results are compared with those associated with in-service values. The global sensitivity analysis and multistep approach significantly reduced the number of design parameters and improved the computational efficiency of the optimisation. Furthermore, using the optimised values of design parameters give the possibility to run the vehicle up to 13% faster on curves while a satisfactory safety level is guaranteed. The results obtained can be used in Pareto optimisation and active bogie suspension design problems.
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation
Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten
2015-04-01
Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.
Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.
1986-01-01
An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analysis has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with direct and adjoint sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies
Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.
Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Pantazis, Yannis
2015-01-01
Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the
Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Georgios Arampatzis
Full Text Available Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of
A multi-objective optimization for brush monofilament tufting process design
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ali Salmasnia
2018-01-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the optimization of monofilament tufting process as the most important and the main stage of toothbrush production in sanitary industries. In order to minimize both process time and depreciation costs, and ultimately increase the production efficiency in such an industrial unit, we propose a metaheuristic based optimization approach to solve it. The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP is used to formulate the proposed problem. Then by using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, NSGA-II and MOPSO, we seek to obtain the best solution and objective functions described above. Extensive computational experiments on three different kinds of toothbrush handles are performed and the results demonstrate the applicability and appropriate performance of algorithms. The comparison metrics like spacing, number of Pareto solutions, time, mean distance from the ideal solution and diversity are used to evaluate the quality of solutions. Moreover a sensitivity analysis is done for investigation of the performance in various setting of parameters.
Sensitivity Analysis Based on Markovian Integration by Parts Formula
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yongsheng Hang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis is widely applied in financial risk management and engineering; it describes the variations brought by the changes of parameters. Since the integration by parts technique for Markov chains is well developed in recent years, in this paper we apply it for computation of sensitivity and show the closed-form expressions for two commonly-used time-continuous Markovian models. By comparison, we conclude that our approach outperforms the existing technique of computing sensitivity on Markovian models.
Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore
2006-12-01
A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.
The role of sensitivity analysis in assessing uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crick, M.J.; Hill, M.D.
1987-01-01
Outside the specialist world of those carrying out performance assessments considerable confusion has arisen about the meanings of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. In this paper we attempt to reduce this confusion. We then go on to review approaches to sensitivity analysis within the context of assessing uncertainty, and to outline the types of test available to identify sensitive parameters, together with their advantages and disadvantages. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors; they have not been formally endorsed by the National Radiological Protection Board and should not be interpreted as Board advice
Improved multi-objective clustering algorithm using particle swarm optimization.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Congcong Gong
Full Text Available Multi-objective clustering has received widespread attention recently, as it can obtain more accurate and reasonable solution. In this paper, an improved multi-objective clustering framework using particle swarm optimization (IMCPSO is proposed. Firstly, a novel particle representation for clustering problem is designed to help PSO search clustering solutions in continuous space. Secondly, the distribution of Pareto set is analyzed. The analysis results are applied to the leader selection strategy, and make algorithm avoid trapping in local optimum. Moreover, a clustering solution-improved method is proposed, which can increase the efficiency in searching clustering solution greatly. In the experiments, 28 datasets are used and nine state-of-the-art clustering algorithms are compared, the proposed method is superior to other approaches in the evaluation index ARI.
Improved multi-objective clustering algorithm using particle swarm optimization.
Gong, Congcong; Chen, Haisong; He, Weixiong; Zhang, Zhanliang
2017-01-01
Multi-objective clustering has received widespread attention recently, as it can obtain more accurate and reasonable solution. In this paper, an improved multi-objective clustering framework using particle swarm optimization (IMCPSO) is proposed. Firstly, a novel particle representation for clustering problem is designed to help PSO search clustering solutions in continuous space. Secondly, the distribution of Pareto set is analyzed. The analysis results are applied to the leader selection strategy, and make algorithm avoid trapping in local optimum. Moreover, a clustering solution-improved method is proposed, which can increase the efficiency in searching clustering solution greatly. In the experiments, 28 datasets are used and nine state-of-the-art clustering algorithms are compared, the proposed method is superior to other approaches in the evaluation index ARI.
Analysis of Sensitivity Experiments - An Expanded Primer
2017-03-08
conducted with this purpose in mind. Due diligence must be paid to the structure of the dosage levels and to the number of trials. The chosen data...analysis. System reliability is of paramount importance for protecting both the investment of funding and human life . Failing to accurately estimate
Sensitivity analysis of hybrid thermoelastic techniques
W.A. Samad; J.M. Considine
2017-01-01
Stress functions have been used as a complementary tool to support experimental techniques, such as thermoelastic stress analysis (TSA) and digital image correlation (DIC), in an effort to evaluate the complete and separate full-field stresses of loaded structures. The need for such coupling between experimental data and stress functions is due to the fact that...
Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.
1985-01-01
An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analyses has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with ''direct'' and ''adjoint'' sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies. 24 refs., 2 figs
Multiobjective optimization in bioinformatics and computational biology.
Handl, Julia; Kell, Douglas B; Knowles, Joshua
2007-01-01
This paper reviews the application of multiobjective optimization in the fields of bioinformatics and computational biology. A survey of existing work, organized by application area, forms the main body of the review, following an introduction to the key concepts in multiobjective optimization. An original contribution of the review is the identification of five distinct "contexts," giving rise to multiple objectives: These are used to explain the reasons behind the use of multiobjective optimization in each application area and also to point the way to potential future uses of the technique.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nixon, J.D.
2016-01-01
This paper presents a method for optimising the design parameters of an anaerobic digestion (AD) system by using first-order kinetics and multi-objective non-linear goal programming. A model is outlined that determines the ideal operating tank temperature and hydraulic retention time, based on objectives for minimising levelised cost of electricity, and maximising energy potential and feedstock mass reduction. The model is demonstrated for a continuously stirred tank reactor processing food waste in two case study locations. These locations are used to investigate the influence of different environmental and economic climates on optimal conditions. A sensitivity analysis is performed to further examine the variation in optimal results for different financial assumptions and objective weightings. The results identify the conditions for the preferred tank temperature to be in the psychrophilic, mesophilic or thermophilic range. For a tank temperature of 35 °C, ideal hydraulic retention times, in terms of achieving a minimum levelised electricity cost, were found to range from 29.9 to 33 days. Whilst there is a need for more detailed information on rate constants for use in first-order models, multi-objective optimisation modelling is considered to be a promising option for AD design. - Highlights: • Nonlinear goal programming is used to optimise anaerobic digestion systems. • Multiple objectives are set including minimising the levelised cost of electricity. • A model is developed and applied to case studies for the UK and India. • Optimal decisions are made for tank temperature and retention time. • A sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate different model objectives.
Sensitivity Analysis of the Critical Speed in Railway Vehicle Dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bigoni, Daniele; True, Hans; Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter
2014-01-01
We present an approach to global sensitivity analysis aiming at the reduction of its computational cost without compromising the results. The method is based on sampling methods, cubature rules, High-Dimensional Model Representation and Total Sensitivity Indices. The approach has a general applic...
Global and Local Sensitivity Analysis Methods for a Physical System
Morio, Jerome
2011-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the different input variations of a mathematical model influence the variability of its output. In this paper, we review the principle of global and local sensitivity analyses of a complex black-box system. A simulated case of application is given at the end of this paper to compare both approaches.…
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of high frequency structures with Matlab
Bakr, Mohamed; Demir, Veysel
2017-01-01
This book covers the theory of adjoint sensitivity analysis and uses the popular FDTD (finite-difference time-domain) method to show how wideband sensitivities can be efficiently estimated for different types of materials and structures. It includes a variety of MATLAB® examples to help readers absorb the content more easily.
Multiobjective Reliable Cloud Storage with Its Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiyang Liu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Information abounds in all fields of the real life, which is often recorded as digital data in computer systems and treated as a kind of increasingly important resource. Its increasing volume growth causes great difficulties in both storage and analysis. The massive data storage in cloud environments has significant impacts on the quality of service (QoS of the systems, which is becoming an increasingly challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a multiobjective optimization model for the reliable data storage in clouds through considering both cost and reliability of the storage service simultaneously. In the proposed model, the total cost is analyzed to be composed of storage space occupation cost, data migration cost, and communication cost. According to the analysis of the storage process, the transmission reliability, equipment stability, and software reliability are taken into account in the storage reliability evaluation. To solve the proposed multiobjective model, a Constrained Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization (CMPSO algorithm is designed. At last, experiments are designed to validate the proposed model and its solution PSO algorithm. In the experiments, the proposed model is tested in cooperation with 3 storage strategies. Experimental results show that the proposed model is positive and effective. The experimental results also demonstrate that the proposed model can perform much better in alliance with proper file splitting methods.
Dispersion sensitivity analysis & consistency improvement of APFSDS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sangeeta Sharma Panda
2017-08-01
In Bore Balloting Motion simulation shows that reduction in residual spin by about 5% results in drastic 56% reduction in first maximum yaw. A correlation between first maximum yaw and residual spin is observed. Results of data analysis are used in design modification for existing ammunition. Number of designs are evaluated numerically before freezing five designs for further soundings. These designs are critically assessed in terms of their comparative performance during In-bore travel & external ballistics phase. Results are validated by free flight trials for the finalised design.
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of plasmonic structures using the FDTD method.
Zhang, Yu; Ahmed, Osman S; Bakr, Mohamed H
2014-05-15
We present an adjoint variable method for estimating the sensitivities of arbitrary responses with respect to the parameters of dispersive discontinuities in nanoplasmonic devices. Our theory is formulated in terms of the electric field components at the vicinity of perturbed discontinuities. The adjoint sensitivities are computed using at most one extra finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulation regardless of the number of parameters. Our approach is illustrated through the sensitivity analysis of an add-drop coupler consisting of a square ring resonator between two parallel waveguides. The computed adjoint sensitivities of the scattering parameters are compared with those obtained using the accurate but computationally expensive central finite difference approach.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Naserian, Mohammad Mahdi; Farahat, Said; Sarhaddi, Faramarz
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Defining a dimensionless parameter includes the finite-time and size concepts. • Inserting the concept of exergy of fluid streams into finite-time thermodynamics. • Defining, drawing and modifying of maximum ecological function curve. • Suggesting the appropriate performance zone, according to maximum ecological curve. - Abstract: In this study, the optimal performance of a regenerative Brayton cycle is sought through power and then ecological function maximization using finite-time thermodynamic concept and finite-size components. Multi-objective optimization is used for maximizing the ecological function. Optimizations are performed using genetic algorithm. In order to take into account the finite-time and finite-size concepts in current problem, a dimensionless mass-flow parameter is introduced deploying time variations. The variations of output power, total exergy destruction of the system, and decision variables for the optimum state (maximum ecological function state) are compared to the maximum power state using the dimensionless parameter. The modified ecological function in optimum state is obtained and plotted relating to the dimensionless mass-flow parameter. One can see that the modified ecological function study results in a better performance than that obtained with the maximum power state. Finally, the appropriate performance zone of the heat engine will be obtained
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sanita Dhaubanjar
2017-02-01
Full Text Available While the water–energy–food nexus approach is becoming increasingly important for more efficient resource utilization and economic development, limited quantitative tools are available to incorporate the approach in decision-making. We propose a spatially explicit framework that couples two well-established water and power system models to develop a decision support tool combining multiple nexus objectives in a linear objective function. To demonstrate our framework, we compare eight Nepalese power development scenarios based on five nexus objectives: minimization of power deficit, maintenance of water availability for irrigation to support food self-sufficiency, reduction in flood risk, maintenance of environmental flows, and maximization of power export. The deterministic multi-objective optimization model is spatially resolved to enable realistic representation of the nexus linkages and accounts for power transmission constraints using an optimal power flow approach. Basin inflows, hydropower plant specifications, reservoir characteristics, reservoir rules, irrigation water demand, environmental flow requirements, power demand, and transmission line properties are provided as model inputs. The trade-offs and synergies among these objectives were visualized for each scenario under multiple environmental flow and power demand requirements. Spatially disaggregated model outputs allowed for the comparison of scenarios not only based on fulfillment of nexus objectives but also scenario compatibility with existing infrastructure, supporting the identification of projects that enhance overall system efficiency. Though the model is applied to the Nepalese nexus from a power development perspective here, it can be extended and adapted for other problems.
Sensitivity analysis of the RESRAD, a dose assessment code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu, C.; Cheng, J.J.; Zielen, A.J.
1991-01-01
The RESRAD code is a pathway analysis code that is designed to calculate radiation doses and derive soil cleanup criteria for the US Department of Energy's environmental restoration and waste management program. the RESRAD code uses various pathway and consumption-rate parameters such as soil properties and food ingestion rates in performing such calculations and derivations. As with any predictive model, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the accuracy of the input parameters. This paper summarizes the results of a sensitivity analysis of RESRAD input parameters. Three methods were used to perform the sensitivity analysis: (1) Gradient Enhanced Software System (GRESS) sensitivity analysis software package developed at oak Ridge National Laboratory; (2) direct perturbation of input parameters; and (3) built-in graphic package that shows parameter sensitivities while the RESRAD code is operational
A sensitivity analysis approach to optical parameters of scintillation detectors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghal-Eh, N.; Koohi-Fayegh, R.
2008-01-01
In this study, an extended version of the Monte Carlo light transport code, PHOTRACK, has been used for a sensitivity analysis to estimate the importance of different wavelength-dependent parameters in the modelling of light collection process in scintillators
sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study .... organizations and specific projects needs based. Life-cycle ... developed and completed urban road infrastructure corridor ...
Sobol’ sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee colonies
We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather...
Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2001-01-01
This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as
Sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for knapsack problems
Ghosh, D; Chakravarti, N; Sierksma, G
2006-01-01
In this paper, we carry out parametric analysis as well as a tolerance limit based sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for two knapsack problems-the 0-1 knapsack problem and the subset sum problem. We carry out the parametric analysis based on all problem parameters. In the tolerance limit
Sensitivity analysis of numerical solutions for environmental fluid problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanaka, Nobuatsu; Motoyama, Yasunori
2003-01-01
In this study, we present a new numerical method to quantitatively analyze the error of numerical solutions by using the sensitivity analysis. If a reference case of typical parameters is one calculated with the method, no additional calculation is required to estimate the results of the other numerical parameters such as more detailed solutions. Furthermore, we can estimate the strict solution from the sensitivity analysis results and can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the numerical solution by calculating the numerical error. (author)
Adkins, Daniel E.; McClay, Joseph L.; Vunck, Sarah A.; Batman, Angela M.; Vann, Robert E.; Clark, Shaunna L.; Souza, Renan P.; Crowley, James J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; van den Oord, Edwin J.C.G.; Beardsley, Patrick M.
2014-01-01
Behavioral sensitization has been widely studied in animal models and is theorized to reflect neural modifications associated with human psychostimulant addiction. While the mesolimbic dopaminergic pathway is known to play a role, the neurochemical mechanisms underlying behavioral sensitization remain incompletely understood. In the present study, we conducted the first metabolomics analysis to globally characterize neurochemical differences associated with behavioral sensitization. Methamphetamine-induced sensitization measures were generated by statistically modeling longitudinal activity data for eight inbred strains of mice. Subsequent to behavioral testing, nontargeted liquid and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry profiling was performed on 48 brain samples, yielding 301 metabolite levels per sample after quality control. Association testing between metabolite levels and three primary dimensions of behavioral sensitization (total distance, stereotypy and margin time) showed four robust, significant associations at a stringent metabolome-wide significance threshold (false discovery rate < 0.05). Results implicated homocarnosine, a dipeptide of GABA and histidine, in total distance sensitization, GABA metabolite 4-guanidinobutanoate and pantothenate in stereotypy sensitization, and myo-inositol in margin time sensitization. Secondary analyses indicated that these associations were independent of concurrent methamphetamine levels and, with the exception of the myo-inositol association, suggest a mechanism whereby strain-based genetic variation produces specific baseline neurochemical differences that substantially influence the magnitude of MA-induced sensitization. These findings demonstrate the utility of mouse metabolomics for identifying novel biomarkers, and developing more comprehensive neurochemical models, of psychostimulant sensitization. PMID:24034544
Benchmarks for dynamic multi-objective optimisation
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Helbig, M
2013-06-01
Full Text Available When algorithms solve dynamic multi-objective optimisation problems (DMOOPs), benchmark functions should be used to determine whether the algorithm can overcome specific difficulties that can occur in real-world problems. However, for dynamic multi...
Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.
2001-01-01
This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)
Aytaç Adalı, Esra; Tuş Işık, Ayşegül
2017-06-01
A decision making process requires the values of conflicting objectives for alternatives and the selection of the best alternative according to the needs of decision makers. Multi-objective optimization methods may provide solution for this selection. In this paper it is aimed to present the laptop selection problem based on MOORA plus full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) and multi-objective optimization on the basis of simple ratio analysis (MOOSRA) which are relatively new multi-objective optimization methods. The novelty of this paper is solving this problem with the MULTIMOORA and MOOSRA methods for the first time.
High sensitivity analysis of atmospheric gas elements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miwa, Shiro; Nomachi, Ichiro; Kitajima, Hideo
2006-01-01
We have investigated the detection limit of H, C and O in Si, GaAs and InP using a Cameca IMS-4f instrument equipped with a modified vacuum system to improve the detection limit with a lower sputtering rate We found that the detection limits for H, O and C are improved by employing a primary ion bombardment before the analysis. Background levels of 1 x 10 17 atoms/cm 3 for H, of 3 x 10 16 atoms/cm 3 for C and of 2 x 10 16 atoms/cm 3 for O could be achieved in silicon with a sputtering rate of 2 nm/s after a primary ion bombardment for 160 h. We also found that the use of a 20 K He cryo-panel near the sample holder was effective for obtaining better detection limits in a shorter time, although the final detection limits using the panel are identical to those achieved without it
High sensitivity analysis of atmospheric gas elements
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miwa, Shiro [Materials Analysis Lab., Sony Corporation, 4-16-1 Okata, Atsugi 243-0021 (Japan)]. E-mail: Shiro.Miwa@jp.sony.com; Nomachi, Ichiro [Materials Analysis Lab., Sony Corporation, 4-16-1 Okata, Atsugi 243-0021 (Japan); Kitajima, Hideo [Nanotechnos Corp., 5-4-30 Nishihashimoto, Sagamihara 229-1131 (Japan)
2006-07-30
We have investigated the detection limit of H, C and O in Si, GaAs and InP using a Cameca IMS-4f instrument equipped with a modified vacuum system to improve the detection limit with a lower sputtering rate We found that the detection limits for H, O and C are improved by employing a primary ion bombardment before the analysis. Background levels of 1 x 10{sup 17} atoms/cm{sup 3} for H, of 3 x 10{sup 16} atoms/cm{sup 3} for C and of 2 x 10{sup 16} atoms/cm{sup 3} for O could be achieved in silicon with a sputtering rate of 2 nm/s after a primary ion bombardment for 160 h. We also found that the use of a 20 K He cryo-panel near the sample holder was effective for obtaining better detection limits in a shorter time, although the final detection limits using the panel are identical to those achieved without it.
Sensitivity Analysis of BLISK Airfoil Wear †
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andreas Kellersmann
2018-05-01
Full Text Available The decreasing performance of jet engines during operation is a major concern for airlines and maintenance companies. Among other effects, the erosion of high-pressure compressor (HPC blades is a critical one and leads to a changed aerodynamic behavior, and therefore to a change in performance. The maintenance of BLISKs (blade-integrated-disks is especially challenging because the blade arrangement cannot be changed and individual blades cannot be replaced. Thus, coupled deteriorated blades have a complex aerodynamic behavior which can have a stronger influence on compressor performance than a conventional HPC. To ensure effective maintenance for BLISKs, the impact of coupled misshaped blades are the key factor. The present study addresses these effects on the aerodynamic performance of a first-stage BLISK of a high-pressure compressor. Therefore, a design of experiments (DoE is done to identify the geometric properties which lead to a reduction in performance. It is shown that the effect of coupled variances is dependent on the operating point. Based on the DoE analysis, the thickness-related parameters, the stagger angle, and the max. profile camber as coupled parameters are identified as the most important parameters for all operating points.
Multiobjective hyper heuristic scheme for system design and optimization
Rafique, Amer Farhan
2012-11-01
As system design is becoming more and more multifaceted, integrated, and complex, the traditional single objective optimization trends of optimal design are becoming less and less efficient and effective. Single objective optimization methods present a unique optimal solution whereas multiobjective methods present pareto front. The foremost intent is to predict a reasonable distributed pareto-optimal solution set independent of the problem instance through multiobjective scheme. Other objective of application of intended approach is to improve the worthiness of outputs of the complex engineering system design process at the conceptual design phase. The process is automated in order to provide the system designer with the leverage of the possibility of studying and analyzing a large multiple of possible solutions in a short time. This article presents Multiobjective Hyper Heuristic Optimization Scheme based on low level meta-heuristics developed for the application in engineering system design. Herein, we present a stochastic function to manage meta-heuristics (low-level) to augment surety of global optimum solution. Generic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing and Swarm Intelligence are used as low-level meta-heuristics in this study. Performance of the proposed scheme is investigated through a comprehensive empirical analysis yielding acceptable results. One of the primary motives for performing multiobjective optimization is that the current engineering systems require simultaneous optimization of conflicting and multiple. Random decision making makes the implementation of this scheme attractive and easy. Injecting feasible solutions significantly alters the search direction and also adds diversity of population resulting in accomplishment of pre-defined goals set in the proposed scheme.
Image Segmentation Method Using Fuzzy C Mean Clustering Based on Multi-Objective Optimization
Chen, Jinlin; Yang, Chunzhi; Xu, Guangkui; Ning, Li
2018-04-01
Image segmentation is not only one of the hottest topics in digital image processing, but also an important part of computer vision applications. As one kind of image segmentation algorithms, fuzzy C-means clustering is an effective and concise segmentation algorithm. However, the drawback of FCM is that it is sensitive to image noise. To solve the problem, this paper designs a novel fuzzy C-mean clustering algorithm based on multi-objective optimization. We add a parameter λ to the fuzzy distance measurement formula to improve the multi-objective optimization. The parameter λ can adjust the weights of the pixel local information. In the algorithm, the local correlation of neighboring pixels is added to the improved multi-objective mathematical model to optimize the clustering cent. Two different experimental results show that the novel fuzzy C-means approach has an efficient performance and computational time while segmenting images by different type of noises.
Hasegawa, Raiden; Small, Dylan
2017-12-01
In matched observational studies where treatment assignment is not randomized, sensitivity analysis helps investigators determine how sensitive their estimated treatment effect is to some unmeasured confounder. The standard approach calibrates the sensitivity analysis according to the worst case bias in a pair. This approach will result in a conservative sensitivity analysis if the worst case bias does not hold in every pair. In this paper, we show that for binary data, the standard approach can be calibrated in terms of the average bias in a pair rather than worst case bias. When the worst case bias and average bias differ, the average bias interpretation results in a less conservative sensitivity analysis and more power. In many studies, the average case calibration may also carry a more natural interpretation than the worst case calibration and may also allow researchers to incorporate additional data to establish an empirical basis with which to calibrate a sensitivity analysis. We illustrate this with a study of the effects of cellphone use on the incidence of automobile accidents. Finally, we extend the average case calibration to the sensitivity analysis of confidence intervals for attributable effects. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng, Yongqiang; Zhang, Yaning; Li, Bingxi; Yang, Jinfu; Shi, Yang
2015-01-01
The sensitivity analysis for low temperature ORCs (organic Rankine cycles), as well as the thermoeconomic comparison between the basic ORC and regenerative ORC using Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), are conducted in this paper. The derivatives of five system parameters on system performance are used to evaluate the parametric sensitiveness. The exergy efficiency and the APR (heat exchanger area per unit net power output) are selected as the objective functions for multi-objective optimization using R123 under the low temperature heat source of 423 K. The Pareto frontier solution with bi-objective for maximizing exergy efficiency and minimizing APR is obtained and compared with the corresponding single-objective solutions. The results indicate that the prior consideration of improving thermal efficiency and exergy efficiency is to increase the evaporator outlet temperature. A fitting curve can be yielded from the Pareto frontier between the thermodynamic performance and economic factor. The optimum exergy efficiency and APR of the regenerative ORC obtained from the Pareto-optimal solution are 59.93% and 3.07 m 2 /kW, which are 8.10% higher and 15.89% lower than that of the basic ORC, respectively. The Pareto optimization compromises the thermodynamic performance and economic factor, therefore being more suitable for decision making. - Highlights: • The sensitivity analysis of the basic ORC is conducted. • The Pareto-optimal solution is compared with the single-objective solutions. • Evaporator outlet temperature should be preferentially considered. • 8.10% higher exergy efficiency and 15.89% lower APR for the regenerative ORC
Application of Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Integrated Force Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X. F. Wei
2012-01-01
Full Text Available As a new formulation in structural analysis, Integrated Force Method has been successfully applied to many structures for civil, mechanical, and aerospace engineering due to the accurate estimate of forces in computation. Right now, it is being further extended to the probabilistic domain. For the assessment of uncertainty effect in system optimization and identification, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of IFM was further investigated in this study. A set of stochastic sensitivity analysis formulation of Integrated Force Method was developed using the perturbation method. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate its application. Its efficiency and accuracy were also substantiated with direct Monte Carlo simulations and the reliability-based sensitivity method. The numerical algorithm was shown to be readily adaptable to the existing program since the models of stochastic finite element and stochastic design sensitivity are almost identical.
The EVEREST project: sensitivity analysis of geological disposal systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marivoet, Jan; Wemaere, Isabelle; Escalier des Orres, Pierre; Baudoin, Patrick; Certes, Catherine; Levassor, Andre; Prij, Jan; Martens, Karl-Heinz; Roehlig, Klaus
1997-01-01
The main objective of the EVEREST project is the evaluation of the sensitivity of the radiological consequences associated with the geological disposal of radioactive waste to the different elements in the performance assessment. Three types of geological host formations are considered: clay, granite and salt. The sensitivity studies that have been carried out can be partitioned into three categories according to the type of uncertainty taken into account: uncertainty in the model parameters, uncertainty in the conceptual models and uncertainty in the considered scenarios. Deterministic as well as stochastic calculational approaches have been applied for the sensitivity analyses. For the analysis of the sensitivity to parameter values, the reference technique, which has been applied in many evaluations, is stochastic and consists of a Monte Carlo simulation followed by a linear regression. For the analysis of conceptual model uncertainty, deterministic and stochastic approaches have been used. For the analysis of uncertainty in the considered scenarios, mainly deterministic approaches have been applied
Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Description of techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.
2008-01-01
The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. Then, in the second and concluding part of this presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present
Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Example results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.
2008-01-01
The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described in the first part of this presentation: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. In this, the second and concluding part of the presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present
Carbon dioxide capture processes: Simulation, design and sensitivity analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zaman, Muhammad; Lee, Jay Hyung; Gani, Rafiqul
2012-01-01
equilibrium and associated property models are used. Simulations are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the process variables to change in the design variables including process inputs and disturbances in the property model parameters. Results of the sensitivity analysis on the steady state...... performance of the process to the L/G ratio to the absorber, CO2 lean solvent loadings, and striper pressure are presented in this paper. Based on the sensitivity analysis process optimization problems have been defined and solved and, a preliminary control structure selection has been made.......Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas and its major source is combustion of fossil fuels for power generation. The objective of this study is to carry out the steady-state sensitivity analysis for chemical absorption of carbon dioxide capture from flue gas using monoethanolamine solvent. First...
Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.
Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M
2016-12-28
Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.
Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Drainage Modeling Using Mutual Information
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chuanqi Li
2014-11-01
Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM output to its input parameters. A global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to determine which parameters mostly affect the model simulation results. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are applied in this study. The first one is the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC which measures nonlinear but monotonic relationships between model inputs and outputs. The second one is based on the mutual information which provides a general measure of the strength of the non-monotonic association between two variables. Both methods are based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS of the parameter space, and thus the same datasets can be used to obtain both measures of sensitivity. The utility of the PRCC and the mutual information analysis methods are illustrated by analyzing a complex SWMM model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only a few key input variables are contributing significantly to the model outputs; PRCCs and mutual information are calculated and used to determine and rank the importance of these key parameters. This study shows that the partial rank correlation coefficient and mutual information analysis can be considered effective methods for assessing the sensitivity of the SWMM model to the uncertainty in its input parameters.
Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks
Navarro, María
2016-12-26
Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.
Allergen Sensitization Pattern by Sex: A Cluster Analysis in Korea.
Ohn, Jungyoon; Paik, Seung Hwan; Doh, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun-Sun; Yoon, Hyun-Sun; Cho, Soyun
2017-12-01
Allergens tend to sensitize simultaneously. Etiology of this phenomenon has been suggested to be allergen cross-reactivity or concurrent exposure. However, little is known about specific allergen sensitization patterns. To investigate the allergen sensitization characteristics according to gender. Multiple allergen simultaneous test (MAST) is widely used as a screening tool for detecting allergen sensitization in dermatologic clinics. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with MAST results between 2008 and 2014 in our Department of Dermatology. A cluster analysis was performed to elucidate the allergen-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E cluster pattern. The results of MAST (39 allergen-specific IgEs) from 4,360 cases were analyzed. By cluster analysis, 39items were grouped into 8 clusters. Each cluster had characteristic features. When compared with female, the male group tended to be sensitized more frequently to all tested allergens, except for fungus allergens cluster. The cluster and comparative analysis results demonstrate that the allergen sensitization is clustered, manifesting allergen similarity or co-exposure. Only the fungus cluster allergens tend to sensitize female group more frequently than male group.
A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw
2008-01-01
Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters
Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae
2016-01-01
Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed
Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed.
Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu
2009-01-01
Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.
A tool model for predicting atmospheric kinetics with sensitivity analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2001-01-01
A package( a tool model) for program of predicting atmospheric chemical kinetics with sensitivity analysis is presented. The new direct method of calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients using sparse matrix technology to chemical kinetics is included in the tool model, it is only necessary to triangularize the matrix related to the Jacobian matrix of the model equation. The Gear type procedure is used to integrate amodel equation and its coupled auxiliary sensitivity coefficient equations. The FORTRAN subroutines of the model equation, the sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian analytical expressions are generated automatically from a chemical mechanism. The kinetic representation for the model equation and its sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian matrix is presented. Various FORTRAN subroutines in packages, such as SLODE, modified MA28, Gear package, with which the program runs in conjunction are recommended.The photo-oxidation of dimethyl disulfide is used for illustration.
Sensitivity analysis of the nuclear data for MYRRHA reactor modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert; Cabellos, Oscar; Diez, Carlos J.; Schillebeeckx, Peter; Heyse, Jan
2014-01-01
A global sensitivity analysis of effective neutron multiplication factor k eff to the change of nuclear data library revealed that JEFF-3.2T2 neutron-induced evaluated data library produces closer results to ENDF/B-VII.1 than does JEFF-3.1.2. The analysis of contributions of individual evaluations into k eff sensitivity allowed establishing the priority list of nuclides for which uncertainties on nuclear data must be improved. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed for two nuclides from this list, 56 Fe and 238 Pu. The analysis was based on a detailed survey of the evaluations and experimental data. To track the origin of the differences in the evaluations and their impact on k eff , the reaction cross-sections and multiplicities in one evaluation have been substituted by the corresponding data from other evaluations. (authors)
A procedure for multi-objective optimization of tire design parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nikola Korunović
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The identification of optimal tire design parameters for satisfying different requirements, i.e. tire performance characteristics, plays an essential role in tire design. In order to improve tire performance characteristics, formulation and solving of multi-objective optimization problem must be performed. This paper presents a multi-objective optimization procedure for determination of optimal tire design parameters for simultaneous minimization of strain energy density at two distinctive zones inside the tire. It consists of four main stages: pre-analysis, design of experiment, mathematical modeling and multi-objective optimization. Advantage of the proposed procedure is reflected in the fact that multi-objective optimization is based on the Pareto concept, which enables design engineers to obtain a complete set of optimization solutions and choose a suitable tire design. Furthermore, modeling of the relationships between tire design parameters and objective functions based on multiple regression analysis minimizes computational and modeling effort. The adequacy of the proposed tire design multi-objective optimization procedure has been validated by performing experimental trials based on finite element method.
Deterministic Local Sensitivity Analysis of Augmented Systems - I: Theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, Dan G.; Ionescu-Bujor, Mihaela
2005-01-01
This work provides the theoretical foundation for the modular implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for large-scale simulation systems. The implementation of the ASAP commences with a selected code module and then proceeds by augmenting the size of the adjoint sensitivity system, module by module, until the entire system is completed. Notably, the adjoint sensitivity system for the augmented system can often be solved by using the same numerical methods used for solving the original, nonaugmented adjoint system, particularly when the matrix representation of the adjoint operator for the augmented system can be inverted by partitioning
The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kucherenko, Sergei; Feil, Balazs; Shah, Nilay; Mauntz, Wolfgang
2011-01-01
It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.
The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kucherenko, Sergei, E-mail: s.kucherenko@ic.ac.u [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Feil, Balazs [Department of Process Engineering, University of Pannonia, Veszprem (Hungary); Shah, Nilay [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Mauntz, Wolfgang [Lehrstuhl fuer Anlagensteuerungstechnik, Fachbereich Chemietechnik, Universitaet Dortmund (Germany)
2011-04-15
It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.
Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Sustainable Buildings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Rasmussen, Henrik
2009-01-01
satisfies the design objectives and criteria. In the design of sustainable buildings, it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to more efficiently develop alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. Sensitivity analyses make it possible to identify...... possible to influence the most important design parameters. A methodology of sensitivity analysis is presented and an application example is given for design of an office building in Denmark....
Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs
Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Young, M.
2016-01-01
Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral
Sensitivity analysis of network DEA illustrated in branch banking
N. Avkiran
2010-01-01
Users of data envelopment analysis (DEA) often presume efficiency estimates to be robust. While traditional DEA has been exposed to various sensitivity studies, network DEA (NDEA) has so far escaped similar scrutiny. Thus, there is a need to investigate the sensitivity of NDEA, further compounded by the recent attention it has been receiving in literature. NDEA captures the underlying performance information found in a firm?s interacting divisions or sub-processes that would otherwise remain ...
Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony
2011-01-01
Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors
Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry
Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony
2011-03-01
Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors.
2012-01-01
OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION : Evaluation Parameters : EPAs Sensitivity Analysis : Comparison to Baseline Case : MOVES Sensitivity Run Specification : MOVES Sensitivity Input Parameters : Results : Uses of Study
Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study. Final report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parkinson, W.J.; Rasmussen, N.C.; Hinkle, W.D.
1979-01-01
The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) or Wash 1400 developed a methodology estimating the public risk from light water nuclear reactors. In order to give further insights into this study, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the significant contributors to risk for both the PWR and BWR. The sensitivity to variation of the point values of the failure probabilities reported in the RSS was determined for the safety systems identified therein, as well as for many of the generic classes from which individual failures contributed to system failures. Increasing as well as decreasing point values were considered. An analysis of the sensitivity to increasing uncertainty in system failure probabilities was also performed. The sensitivity parameters chosen were release category probabilities, core melt probability, and the risk parameters of early fatalities, latent cancers and total property damage. The latter three are adequate for describing all public risks identified in the RSS. The results indicate reductions of public risk by less than a factor of two for factor reductions in system or generic failure probabilities as high as one hundred. There also appears to be more benefit in monitoring the most sensitive systems to verify adherence to RSS failure rates than to backfitting present reactors. The sensitivity analysis results do indicate, however, possible benefits in reducing human error rates
Multi-objective convex programming problem arising in multivariate ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
Multi-objective convex programming problem arising in ... However, although the consideration of multiple objectives may seem a novel concept, virtually any nontrivial ..... Solving multiobjective programming problems by discrete optimization.
Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.
1987-01-01
The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method
Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Harry R. Millwater
2006-01-01
Full Text Available A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or surface damage can be considered. The derivation is developed for Monte Carlo sampling such that the existing failure samples are used and the sensitivities are obtained with minimal additional computational time. Variance estimates and confidence bounds of the sensitivity estimates are developed. The methodology is demonstrated and verified using a multizone probabilistic fatigue analysis of a gas turbine compressor disk analysis considering stress scatter, crack growth propagation scatter, and initial crack size as random variables.
Application of sensitivity analysis for optimized piping support design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tai, K.; Nakatogawa, T.; Hisada, T.; Noguchi, H.; Ichihashi, I.; Ogo, H.
1993-01-01
The objective of this study was to see if recent developments in non-linear sensitivity analysis could be applied to the design of nuclear piping systems which use non-linear supports and to develop a practical method of designing such piping systems. In the study presented in this paper, the seismic response of a typical piping system was analyzed using a dynamic non-linear FEM and a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Then optimization for the design of the piping system supports was investigated, selecting the support location and yield load of the non-linear supports (bi-linear model) as main design parameters. It was concluded that the optimized design was a matter of combining overall system reliability with the achievement of an efficient damping effect from the non-linear supports. The analysis also demonstrated sensitivity factors are useful in the planning stage of support design. (author)
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Otis, M.D.
1983-01-01
Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs
Water pollution control in river basin by interactive fuzzy interval multiobjective programming
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chang, N.B.; Chen, H.W. [National Cheng-Kung Univ., Tainan (Taiwan, Province of China). Dept. of Environmental Engineering; Shaw, D.G.; Yang, C.H. [Academia Sinica, Taipei (Taiwan, Province of China). Inst. of Economics
1997-12-01
The potential conflict between protection of water quality and economic development by different uses of land within river basins is a common problem in regional planning. Many studies have applied multiobjective decision analysis under uncertainty to problems of this kind. This paper presents the interactive fuzzy interval multiobjective mixed integer programming (IFIMOMIP) model to evaluate optimal strategies of wastewater treatment levels within a river system by considering the uncertainties in decision analysis. The interactive fuzzy interval multiobjective mixed integer programming approach is illustrated in a case study for the evaluation of optimal wastewater treatment strategies for water pollution control in a river basin. In particular, it demonstrates how different types of uncertainty in a water pollution control system can be quantified and combined through the use of interval numbers and membership functions. The results indicate that such an approach is useful for handling system complexity and generating more flexible policies for water quality management in river basins.
Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne
2016-01-01
This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.
Sensitivity analysis for missing data in regulatory submissions.
Permutt, Thomas
2016-07-30
The National Research Council Panel on Handling Missing Data in Clinical Trials recommended that sensitivity analyses have to be part of the primary reporting of findings from clinical trials. Their specific recommendations, however, seem not to have been taken up rapidly by sponsors of regulatory submissions. The NRC report's detailed suggestions are along rather different lines than what has been called sensitivity analysis in the regulatory setting up to now. Furthermore, the role of sensitivity analysis in regulatory decision-making, although discussed briefly in the NRC report, remains unclear. This paper will examine previous ideas of sensitivity analysis with a view to explaining how the NRC panel's recommendations are different and possibly better suited to coping with present problems of missing data in the regulatory setting. It will also discuss, in more detail than the NRC report, the relevance of sensitivity analysis to decision-making, both for applicants and for regulators. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Sobol' sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee ...
We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather, colony resources, population structure, and other important variables. This allows us to test the effects of defined pesticide exposure scenarios versus controlled simulations that lack pesticide exposure. The daily resolution of the model also allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. We use the variancebased global decomposition sensitivity analysis method, Sobol’, to assess firstand secondorder parameter sensitivities within VarroaPop, allowing us to determine how variance in the output is attributed to each of the input variables across different exposure scenarios. Simulations with VarroaPop indicate queen strength, forager life span and pesticide toxicity parameters are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics. Further analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs. Our preliminary results show that model variability is conditional and can be attributed to different parameters depending on different timescales. By using sensitivity analysis to assess model output and variability, calibrations of simulation models can be better informed to yield more
Variance estimation for sensitivity analysis of poverty and inequality measures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christian Dudel
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Estimates of poverty and inequality are often based on application of a single equivalence scale, despite the fact that a large number of different equivalence scales can be found in the literature. This paper describes a framework for sensitivity analysis which can be used to account for the variability of equivalence scales and allows to derive variance estimates of results of sensitivity analysis. Simulations show that this method yields reliable estimates. An empirical application reveals that accounting for both variability of equivalence scales and sampling variance leads to confidence intervals which are wide.
Sensitivity analysis of water consumption in an office building
Suchacek, Tomas; Tuhovcak, Ladislav; Rucka, Jan
2018-02-01
This article deals with sensitivity analysis of real water consumption in an office building. During a long-term real study, reducing of pressure in its water connection was simulated. A sensitivity analysis of uneven water demand was conducted during working time at various provided pressures and at various time step duration. Correlations between maximal coefficients of water demand variation during working time and provided pressure were suggested. The influence of provided pressure in the water connection on mean coefficients of water demand variation was pointed out, altogether for working hours of all days and separately for days with identical working hours.
Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of Botlek Bridge structures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Králik Juraj
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of the largest movable lift bridge of the world. The bridge system consists of six reinforced concrete pylons and two steel decks 4000 tons weight each connected through ropes with counterweights. The paper focuses the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis as the base of dynamic study in design process of the bridge. The results had a high importance for practical application and design of the bridge. The model and resistance uncertainties were taken into account in LHS simulation method.
Applying DEA sensitivity analysis to efficiency measurement of Vietnamese universities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thi Thanh Huyen Nguyen
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The primary purpose of this study is to measure the technical efficiency of 30 doctorate-granting universities, the universities or the higher education institutes with PhD training programs, in Vietnam, applying the sensitivity analysis of data envelopment analysis (DEA. The study uses eight sets of input-output specifications using the replacement as well as aggregation/disaggregation of variables. The measurement results allow us to examine the sensitivity of the efficiency of these universities with the sets of variables. The findings also show the impact of variables on their efficiency and its “sustainability”.
Seismic analysis of steam generator and parameter sensitivity studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qian Hao; Xu Dinggen; Yang Ren'an; Liang Xingyun
2013-01-01
Background: The steam generator (SG) serves as the primary means for removing the heat generated within the reactor core and is part of the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary. Purpose: Seismic analysis in required for SG, whose seismic category is Cat. I. Methods: The analysis model of SG is created with moisture separator assembly and tube bundle assembly herein. The seismic analysis is performed with RCS pipe and Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). Results: The seismic stress results of SG are obtained. In addition, parameter sensitivities of seismic analysis results are studied, such as the effect of another SG, support, anti-vibration bars (AVBs), and so on. Our results show that seismic results are sensitive to support and AVBs setting. Conclusions: The guidance and comments on these parameters are summarized for equipment design and analysis, which should be focused on in future new type NPP SG's research and design. (authors)
Multiobjective Optimization for Electronic Circuit Design in Time and Frequency Domains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Dobes
2013-04-01
Full Text Available The multiobjective optimization provides an extraordinary opportunity for the finest design of electronic circuits because it allows to mathematically balance contradictory requirements together with possible constraints. In this paper, an original and substantial improvement of an existing method for the multiobjective optimization known as GAM (Goal Attainment Method is suggested. In our proposal, the GAM algorithm itself is combined with a procedure that automatically provides a set of parameters -- weights, coordinates of the reference point -- for which the method generates noninferior solutions uniformly spread over an appropriately selected part of the Pareto front. Moreover, the resulting set of obtained solutions is then presented in a suitable graphic form so that the solution representing the most satisfactory tradeoff can be easily chosen by the designer. Our system generates various types of plots that conveniently characterize results of up to four-dimensional problems. Technically, the procedures of the multiobjective optimization were created as a software add-on to the CIA (Circuit Interactive Analyzer program. This way enabled us to utilize many powerful features of this program, including the sensitivity analyses in time and frequency domains. As a result, the system is also able to perform the multiobjective optimization in the time domain and even highly nonlinear circuits can be significantly improved by our program. As a demonstration of this feature, a multiobjective optimization of a C-class power amplifier in the time domain is thoroughly described in the paper. Further, a four-dimensional optimization of a video amplifier is demonstrated with an original graphic representation of the Pareto front, and also some comparison with the weighting method is done. As an example of improving noise properties, a multiobjective optimization of a low-noise amplifier is performed, and the results in the frequency domain are shown
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fonseca Carlos M
2010-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Irregularly shaped spatial clusters are difficult to delineate. A cluster found by an algorithm often spreads through large portions of the map, impacting its geographical meaning. Penalized likelihood methods for Kulldorff's spatial scan statistics have been used to control the excessive freedom of the shape of clusters. Penalty functions based on cluster geometry and non-connectivity have been proposed recently. Another approach involves the use of a multi-objective algorithm to maximize two objectives: the spatial scan statistics and the geometric penalty function. Results & Discussion We present a novel scan statistic algorithm employing a function based on the graph topology to penalize the presence of under-populated disconnection nodes in candidate clusters, the disconnection nodes cohesion function. A disconnection node is defined as a region within a cluster, such that its removal disconnects the cluster. By applying this function, the most geographically meaningful clusters are sifted through the immense set of possible irregularly shaped candidate cluster solutions. To evaluate the statistical significance of solutions for multi-objective scans, a statistical approach based on the concept of attainment function is used. In this paper we compared different penalized likelihoods employing the geometric and non-connectivity regularity functions and the novel disconnection nodes cohesion function. We also build multi-objective scans using those three functions and compare them with the previous penalized likelihood scans. An application is presented using comprehensive state-wide data for Chagas' disease in puerperal women in Minas Gerais state, Brazil. Conclusions We show that, compared to the other single-objective algorithms, multi-objective scans present better performance, regarding power, sensitivity and positive predicted value. The multi-objective non-connectivity scan is faster and better suited for the
Shea, John E.
The structure of engineering curricula currently in place at most colleges and universities has existed since the early 1950's, and reflects an historical emphasis on a solid foundation in math, science, and engineering science. However, there is often not a close match between elements of the traditional engineering education, and the skill sets that graduates need to possess for success in the industrial environment. Considerable progress has been made to restructure engineering courses and curricula. What is lacking, however, are tools and methodologies that incorporate the many dimensions of college courses, and how they are structured to form a curriculum. If curriculum changes are to be made, the first objective must be to determine what knowledge and skills engineering graduates need to possess. To accomplish this, a set of engineering competencies was developed from existing literature, and used in the development of a comprehensive mail survey of alumni, employers, students and faculty. Respondents proposed some changes to the topics in the curriculum and recommended that work to improve the curriculum be focused on communication, problem solving and people skills. The process of designing a curriculum is similar to engineering design, with requirements that must be met, and objectives that must be optimized. From this similarity came the idea for developing a linear, additive, multi-objective model that identifies the objectives that must be considered when designing a curriculum, and contains the mathematical relationships necessary to quantify the value of a specific alternative. The model incorporates the three primary objectives of engineering topics, skills, and curriculum design principles and uses data from the survey. It was used to design new courses, to evaluate various curricula alternatives, and to conduct sensitivity analysis to better understand their differences. Using the multi-objective model to identify the highest scoring curriculum
Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worley, B.A.
1990-01-01
Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems
Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worley, B.A.
1991-01-01
Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives, although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems. (author). 9 refs, 1 tab
A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tong, C H; Graziani, F R
2007-02-02
Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hanning Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The development of radio frequency identification (RFID technology generates the most challenging RFID network planning (RNP problem, which needs to be solved in order to operate the large-scale RFID network in an optimal fashion. RNP involves many objectives and constraints and has been proven to be a NP-hard multi-objective problem. The application of evolutionary algorithm (EA and swarm intelligence (SI for solving multiobjective RNP (MORNP has gained significant attention in the literature, but these algorithms always transform multiple objectives into a single objective by weighted coefficient approach. In this paper, we use multiobjective EA and SI algorithms to find all the Pareto optimal solutions and to achieve the optimal planning solutions by simultaneously optimizing four conflicting objectives in MORNP, instead of transforming multiobjective functions into a single objective function. The experiment presents an exhaustive comparison of three successful multiobjective EA and SI, namely, the recently developed multiobjective artificial bee colony algorithm (MOABC, the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II, and the multiobjective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO, on MORNP instances of different nature, namely, the two-objective and three-objective MORNP. Simulation results show that MOABC proves to be more superior for planning RFID networks than NSGA-II and MOPSO in terms of optimization accuracy and computation robustness.
Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.
1987-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed
The Volatility of Data Space: Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis
Du, Jing; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika
2015-01-01
Despite the difference among specific methods, existing Sensitivity Analysis (SA) technologies are all value-based, that is, the uncertainties in the model input and output are quantified as changes of values. This paradigm provides only limited insight into the nature of models and the modeled systems. In addition to the value of data, a potentially richer information about the model lies in the topological difference between pre-model data space and post-model data space. This paper introduces an innovative SA method called Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis, which defines sensitivity as the volatility of data space. It extends SA into a deeper level that lies in the topology of data. PMID:26368929
Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen
2017-01-01
simulation inputs are most important and which have negligible influence on the model output. Popular sensitivity methods include the Morris method, variance-based methods (e.g. Sobol’s), and regression methods (e.g. SRC). However, all these methods only address one output at a time, which makes it difficult...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring......Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...
Sensitization trajectories in childhood revealed by using a cluster analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schoos, Ann-Marie M.; Chawes, Bo L.; Melen, Erik
2017-01-01
Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood 2000 (COPSAC2000) birth cohort with specific IgE against 13 common food and inhalant allergens at the ages of ½, 1½, 4, and 6 years. An unsupervised cluster analysis for 3-dimensional data (nonnegative sparse parallel factor analysis) was used to extract latent......BACKGROUND: Assessment of sensitization at a single time point during childhood provides limited clinical information. We hypothesized that sensitization develops as specific patterns with respect to age at debut, development over time, and involved allergens and that such patterns might be more...... biologically and clinically relevant. OBJECTIVE: We sought to explore latent patterns of sensitization during the first 6 years of life and investigate whether such patterns associate with the development of asthma, rhinitis, and eczema. METHODS: We investigated 398 children from the at-risk Copenhagen...
Multi-objective and multi-physics optimization methodology for SFR core: application to CFV concept
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fabbris, Olivier
2014-01-01
Nuclear reactor core design is a highly multidisciplinary task where neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, fuel thermo-mechanics and fuel cycle are involved. The problem is moreover multi-objective (several performances) and highly dimensional (several tens of design parameters).As the reference deterministic calculation codes for core characterization require important computing resources, the classical design method is not well suited to investigate and optimize new innovative core concepts. To cope with these difficulties, a new methodology has been developed in this thesis. Our work is based on the development and validation of simplified neutronics and thermal-hydraulics calculation schemes allowing the full characterization of Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor core regarding both neutronics performances and behavior during thermal hydraulic dimensioning transients.The developed methodology uses surrogate models (or meta-models) able to replace the neutronics and thermal-hydraulics calculation chain. Advanced mathematical methods for the design of experiment, building and validation of meta-models allows substituting this calculation chain by regression models with high prediction capabilities.The methodology is applied on a very large design space to a challenging core called CFV (French acronym for low void effect core) with a large gain on the sodium void effect. Global sensitivity analysis leads to identify the significant design parameters on the core design and its behavior during unprotected transient which can lead to severe accidents. Multi-objective optimizations lead to alternative core configurations with significantly improved performances. Validation results demonstrate the relevance of the methodology at the pre-design stage of a Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor core. (author) [fr
An Elitist Multiobjective Tabu Search for Optimal Design of Groundwater Remediation Systems.
Yang, Yun; Wu, Jianfeng; Wang, Jinguo; Zhou, Zhifang
2017-11-01
This study presents a new multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA), the elitist multiobjective tabu search (EMOTS), and incorporates it with MODFLOW/MT3DMS to develop a groundwater simulation-optimization (SO) framework based on modular design for optimal design of groundwater remediation systems using pump-and-treat (PAT) technique. The most notable improvement of EMOTS over the original multiple objective tabu search (MOTS) lies in the elitist strategy, selection strategy, and neighborhood move rule. The elitist strategy is to maintain all nondominated solutions within later search process for better converging to the true Pareto front. The elitism-based selection operator is modified to choose two most remote solutions from current candidate list as seed solutions to increase the diversity of searching space. Moreover, neighborhood solutions are uniformly generated using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) in the bounded neighborhood space around each seed solution. To demonstrate the performance of the EMOTS, we consider a synthetic groundwater remediation example. Problem formulations consist of two objective functions with continuous decision variables of pumping rates while meeting water quality requirements. Especially, sensitivity analysis is evaluated through the synthetic case for determination of optimal combination of the heuristic parameters. Furthermore, the EMOTS is successfully applied to evaluate remediation options at the field site of the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR) in Cape Cod, Massachusetts. With both the hypothetical and the large-scale field remediation sites, the EMOTS-based SO framework is demonstrated to outperform the original MOTS in achieving the performance metrics of optimality and diversity of nondominated frontiers with desirable stability and robustness. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.
Time-dependent reliability sensitivity analysis of motion mechanisms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei, Pengfei; Song, Jingwen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Yue, Zhufeng
2016-01-01
Reliability sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the source of structure/mechanism failure, and quantifying the effects of each random source or their distribution parameters on failure probability or reliability. In this paper, the time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity (PRS) analysis as well as the global reliability sensitivity (GRS) analysis is introduced for the motion mechanisms. The PRS indices are defined as the partial derivatives of the time-dependent reliability w.r.t. the distribution parameters of each random input variable, and they quantify the effect of the small change of each distribution parameter on the time-dependent reliability. The GRS indices are defined for quantifying the individual, interaction and total contributions of the uncertainty in each random input variable to the time-dependent reliability. The envelope function method combined with the first order approximation of the motion error function is introduced for efficiently estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices. Both the time-dependent PRS and GRS analysis techniques can be especially useful for reliability-based design. This significance of the proposed methods as well as the effectiveness of the envelope function method for estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices are demonstrated with a four-bar mechanism and a car rack-and-pinion steering linkage. - Highlights: • Time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity analysis is presented. • Time-dependent global reliability sensitivity analysis is presented for mechanisms. • The proposed method is especially useful for enhancing the kinematic reliability. • An envelope method is introduced for efficiently implementing the proposed methods. • The proposed method is demonstrated by two real planar mechanisms.
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of system availability using Gaussian processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Daneshkhah, Alireza; Bedford, Tim
2013-01-01
The availability of a system under a given failure/repair process is a function of time which can be determined through a set of integral equations and usually calculated numerically. We focus here on the issue of carrying out sensitivity analysis of availability to determine the influence of the input parameters. The main purpose is to study the sensitivity of the system availability with respect to the changes in the main parameters. In the simplest case that the failure repair process is (continuous time/discrete state) Markovian, explicit formulae are well known. Unfortunately, in more general cases availability is often a complicated function of the parameters without closed form solution. Thus, the computation of sensitivity measures would be time-consuming or even infeasible. In this paper, we show how Sobol and other related sensitivity measures can be cheaply computed to measure how changes in the model inputs (failure/repair times) influence the outputs (availability measure). We use a Bayesian framework, called the Bayesian analysis of computer code output (BACCO) which is based on using the Gaussian process as an emulator (i.e., an approximation) of complex models/functions. This approach allows effective sensitivity analysis to be achieved by using far smaller numbers of model runs than other methods. The emulator-based sensitivity measure is used to examine the influence of the failure and repair densities' parameters on the system availability. We discuss how to apply the methods practically in the reliability context, considering in particular the selection of parameters and prior distributions and how we can ensure these may be considered independent—one of the key assumptions of the Sobol approach. The method is illustrated on several examples, and we discuss the further implications of the technique for reliability and maintenance analysis
Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations
Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu
2018-03-01
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.
Sensitivity Analysis Applied in Design of Low Energy Office Building
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik
2008-01-01
satisfies the design requirements and objectives. In the design of sustainable Buildings it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to develop more efficiently alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. A sensitivity analysis makes it possible...
Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Sustainable Buildings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Hesselholt, Allan Tind
2007-01-01
satisfies the design requirements and objectives. In the design of sustainable Buildings it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to develop more efficiently alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. A sensitivity analysis makes it possible...
Sensitivity analysis of physiochemical interaction model: which pair ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... of two model parameters at a time on the solution trajectory of physiochemical interaction over a time interval. Our aim is to use this powerful mathematical technique to select the important pair of parameters of this physical process which is cost-effective. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 ...
Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.
Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng
2014-04-01
Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.
Sensitivity analysis for contagion effects in social networks
VanderWeele, Tyler J.
2014-01-01
Analyses of social network data have suggested that obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness all travel through social networks. Individuals exert “contagion effects” on one another through social ties and association. These analyses have come under critique because of the possibility that homophily from unmeasured factors may explain these statistical associations and because similar findings can be obtained when the same methodology is applied to height, acne and head-aches, for which the conclusion of contagion effects seems somewhat less plausible. We use sensitivity analysis techniques to assess the extent to which supposed contagion effects for obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness might be explained away by homophily or confounding and the extent to which the critique using analysis of data on height, acne and head-aches is relevant. Sensitivity analyses suggest that contagion effects for obesity and smoking cessation are reasonably robust to possible latent homophily or environmental confounding; those for happiness and loneliness are somewhat less so. Supposed effects for height, acne and head-aches are all easily explained away by latent homophily and confounding. The methodology that has been employed in past studies for contagion effects in social networks, when used in conjunction with sensitivity analysis, may prove useful in establishing social influence for various behaviors and states. The sensitivity analysis approach can be used to address the critique of latent homophily as a possible explanation of associations interpreted as contagion effects. PMID:25580037
Sensitivity Analysis of a Horizontal Earth Electrode under Impulse ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper presents the sensitivity analysis of an earthing conductor under the influence of impulse current arising from a lightning stroke. The approach is based on the 2nd order finite difference time domain (FDTD). The earthing conductor is regarded as a lossy transmission line where it is divided into series connected ...
Beyond the GUM: variance-based sensitivity analysis in metrology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lira, I
2016-01-01
Variance-based sensitivity analysis is a well established tool for evaluating the contribution of the uncertainties in the inputs to the uncertainty in the output of a general mathematical model. While the literature on this subject is quite extensive, it has not found widespread use in metrological applications. In this article we present a succinct review of the fundamentals of sensitivity analysis, in a form that should be useful to most people familiarized with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). Through two examples, it is shown that in linear measurement models, no new knowledge is gained by using sensitivity analysis that is not already available after the terms in the so-called ‘law of propagation of uncertainties’ have been computed. However, if the model behaves non-linearly in the neighbourhood of the best estimates of the input quantities—and if these quantities are assumed to be statistically independent—sensitivity analysis is definitely advantageous for gaining insight into how they can be ranked according to their importance in establishing the uncertainty of the measurand. (paper)
Sensitivity analysis of the Ohio phosphorus risk index
The Phosphorus (P) Index is a widely used tool for assessing the vulnerability of agricultural fields to P loss; yet, few of the P Indices developed in the U.S. have been evaluated for their accuracy. Sensitivity analysis is one approach that can be used prior to calibration and field-scale testing ...
Sensitivity analysis for oblique incidence reflectometry using Monte Carlo simulations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kamran, Faisal; Andersen, Peter E.
2015-01-01
profiles. This article presents a sensitivity analysis of the technique in turbid media. Monte Carlo simulations are used to investigate the technique and its potential to distinguish the small changes between different levels of scattering. We present various regions of the dynamic range of optical...
Omitted Variable Sensitivity Analysis with the Annotated Love Plot
Hansen, Ben B.; Fredrickson, Mark M.
2014-01-01
The goal of this research is to make sensitivity analysis accessible not only to empirical researchers but also to the various stakeholders for whom educational evaluations are conducted. To do this it derives anchors for the omitted variable (OV)-program participation association intrinsically, using the Love plot to present a wide range of…
Weighting-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Causal Mediation Studies
Hong, Guanglei; Qin, Xu; Yang, Fan
2018-01-01
Through a sensitivity analysis, the analyst attempts to determine whether a conclusion of causal inference could be easily reversed by a plausible violation of an identification assumption. Analytic conclusions that are harder to alter by such a violation are expected to add a higher value to scientific knowledge about causality. This article…
Sensitivity analysis of railpad parameters on vertical railway track dynamics
Oregui Echeverria-Berreyarza, M.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.
2016-01-01
This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of railpad parameters on vertical railway track dynamics, incorporating the nonlinear behavior of the fastening (i.e., downward forces compress the railpad whereas upward forces are resisted by the clamps). For this purpose, solid railpads, rail-railpad
Methods for global sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment
Groen, Evelyne A.; Bokkers, Eddy; Heijungs, Reinout; Boer, de Imke J.M.
2017-01-01
Purpose: Input parameters required to quantify environmental impact in life cycle assessment (LCA) can be uncertain due to e.g. temporal variability or unknowns about the true value of emission factors. Uncertainty of environmental impact can be analysed by means of a global sensitivity analysis to
Sensitivity analysis on ultimate strength of aluminium stiffened panels
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rigo, P.; Sarghiuta, R.; Estefen, S.
2003-01-01
This paper presents the results of an extensive sensitivity analysis carried out by the Committee III.1 "Ultimate Strength" of ISSC?2003 in the framework of a benchmark on the ultimate strength of aluminium stiffened panels. Previously, different benchmarks were presented by ISSC committees on ul...
Sensitivity and specificity of coherence and phase synchronization analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Winterhalder, Matthias; Schelter, Bjoern; Kurths, Juergen; Schulze-Bonhage, Andreas; Timmer, Jens
2006-01-01
In this Letter, we show that coherence and phase synchronization analysis are sensitive but not specific in detecting the correct class of underlying dynamics. We propose procedures to increase specificity and demonstrate the power of the approach by application to paradigmatic dynamic model systems
Sensitivity Analysis of Structures by Virtual Distortion Method
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gierlinski, J.T.; Holnicki-Szulc, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1991-01-01
are used in structural optimization, see Haftka [4]. The recently developed Virtual Distortion Method (VDM) is a numerical technique which offers an efficient approach to calculation of the sensitivity derivatives. This method has been orginally applied to structural remodelling and collapse analysis, see...
Design tradeoff studies and sensitivity analysis. Appendix B
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1979-05-25
The results of the design trade-off studies and the sensitivity analysis of Phase I of the Near Term Hybrid Vehicle (NTHV) Program are presented. The effects of variations in the design of the vehicle body, propulsion systems, and other components on vehicle power, weight, cost, and fuel economy and an optimized hybrid vehicle design are discussed. (LCL)
Genetic algorithms and fuzzy multiobjective optimization
Sakawa, Masatoshi
2002-01-01
Since the introduction of genetic algorithms in the 1970s, an enormous number of articles together with several significant monographs and books have been published on this methodology. As a result, genetic algorithms have made a major contribution to optimization, adaptation, and learning in a wide variety of unexpected fields. Over the years, many excellent books in genetic algorithm optimization have been published; however, they focus mainly on single-objective discrete or other hard optimization problems under certainty. There appears to be no book that is designed to present genetic algorithms for solving not only single-objective but also fuzzy and multiobjective optimization problems in a unified way. Genetic Algorithms And Fuzzy Multiobjective Optimization introduces the latest advances in the field of genetic algorithm optimization for 0-1 programming, integer programming, nonconvex programming, and job-shop scheduling problems under multiobjectiveness and fuzziness. In addition, the book treats a w...
Multiobjective optimization of a steering linkage
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sleesonsom, S.; Bureerat, S. [Sustainable and Infrastructure Research and Development Center, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen (Thailand)
2016-08-15
In this paper, multi-objective optimization of a rack-and-pinion steering linkage is proposed. This steering linkage is a common mechanism used in small cars with three advantages as it is simple to construct, economical to manufacture, and compact and easy to operate. In the previous works, many researchers tried to minimize a steering error but minimization of a turning radius is somewhat ignored. As a result, a multi-objective optimization problem is assigned to simultaneously minimize a steering error and a turning radius. The design variables are linkage dimensions. The design problem is solved by the hybrid of multi-objective population-based incremental learning and differential evolution with various constraint handling schemes. The new design strategy leads to effective design of rack-and-pinion steering linkages satisfying both steering error and turning radius criteria.
Multiobjective optimization of a steering linkage
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sleesonsom, S.; Bureerat, S.
2016-01-01
In this paper, multi-objective optimization of a rack-and-pinion steering linkage is proposed. This steering linkage is a common mechanism used in small cars with three advantages as it is simple to construct, economical to manufacture, and compact and easy to operate. In the previous works, many researchers tried to minimize a steering error but minimization of a turning radius is somewhat ignored. As a result, a multi-objective optimization problem is assigned to simultaneously minimize a steering error and a turning radius. The design variables are linkage dimensions. The design problem is solved by the hybrid of multi-objective population-based incremental learning and differential evolution with various constraint handling schemes. The new design strategy leads to effective design of rack-and-pinion steering linkages satisfying both steering error and turning radius criteria
Sensitivity analysis and power for instrumental variable studies.
Wang, Xuran; Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Nancy R; Small, Dylan S
2018-03-31
In observational studies to estimate treatment effects, unmeasured confounding is often a concern. The instrumental variable (IV) method can control for unmeasured confounding when there is a valid IV. To be a valid IV, a variable needs to be independent of unmeasured confounders and only affect the outcome through affecting the treatment. When applying the IV method, there is often concern that a putative IV is invalid to some degree. We present an approach to sensitivity analysis for the IV method which examines the sensitivity of inferences to violations of IV validity. Specifically, we consider sensitivity when the magnitude of association between the putative IV and the unmeasured confounders and the direct effect of the IV on the outcome are limited in magnitude by a sensitivity parameter. Our approach is based on extending the Anderson-Rubin test and is valid regardless of the strength of the instrument. A power formula for this sensitivity analysis is presented. We illustrate its usage via examples about Mendelian randomization studies and its implications via a comparison of using rare versus common genetic variants as instruments. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.
Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms for fuzzy classification in survival prediction.
Jiménez, Fernando; Sánchez, Gracia; Juárez, José M
2014-03-01
-based reasoning) obtaining with ENORA a classification rate of 0.9298, specificity of 0.9385, and sensitivity of 0.9364, with 14.2 interpretable fuzzy rules on average. Our proposal improves the accuracy and interpretability of the classifiers, compared with other non-evolutionary techniques. We also conclude that ENORA outperforms niched pre-selection and NSGA-II algorithms. Moreover, given that our multi-objective evolutionary methodology is non-combinational based on real parameter optimization, the time cost is significantly reduced compared with other evolutionary approaches existing in literature based on combinational optimization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Xu; Huang, Hong Zhong; Yu, Lanfeng
2006-01-01
Interactive Fuzzy Physical Programming (IFPP) developed in this paper is a new efficient multi-objective optimization method, which retains the advantages of physical programming while considering the fuzziness of the designer's preferences. The fuzzy preference function is introduced based on the model of linear physical programming, which is used to guide the search for improved solutions by interactive decision analysis. The example of multi-objective optimization design of the spindle of internal grinder demonstrates that the improved preference conforms to the subjective desires of the designer
Sensitivity analysis of LOFT L2-5 test calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prosek, Andrej
2014-01-01
The uncertainty quantification of best-estimate code predictions is typically accompanied by a sensitivity analysis, in which the influence of the individual contributors to uncertainty is determined. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the improved fast Fourier transform based method by signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study was performed for the LOFT L2-5 test, which simulates the large break loss of coolant accident. There were 14 participants in the BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods-Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) programme, each performing a reference calculation and 15 sensitivity runs of the LOFT L2-5 test. The important input parameters varied were break area, gap conductivity, fuel conductivity, decay power etc. For the influence of input parameters on the calculated results the FFTBM-SM was used. The only difference between FFTBM-SM and original FFTBM is that in the FFTBM-SM the signals are symmetrized to eliminate the edge effect (the so called edge is the difference between the first and last data point of one period of the signal) in calculating average amplitude. It is very important to eliminate unphysical contribution to the average amplitude, which is used as a figure of merit for input parameter influence on output parameters. The idea is to use reference calculation as 'experimental signal', 'sensitivity run' as 'calculated signal', and average amplitude as figure of merit for sensitivity instead for code accuracy. The larger is the average amplitude the larger is the influence of varied input parameter. The results show that with FFTBM-SM the analyst can get good picture of the contribution of the parameter variation to the results. They show when the input parameters are influential and how big is this influence. FFTBM-SM could be also used to quantify the influence of several parameter variations on the results. However, the influential parameters could not be
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harper, W.V.; Gupta, S.K.
1983-10-01
A computer code was used to study steady-state flow for a hypothetical borehole scenario. The model consists of three coupled equations with only eight parameters and three dependent variables. This study focused on steady-state flow as the performance measure of interest. Two different approaches to sensitivity/uncertainty analysis were used on this code. One approach, based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is a statistical sampling method, whereas, the second approach is based on the deterministic evaluation of sensitivities. The LHS technique is easy to apply and should work well for codes with a moderate number of parameters. Of deterministic techniques, the direct method is preferred when there are many performance measures of interest and a moderate number of parameters. The adjoint method is recommended when there are a limited number of performance measures and an unlimited number of parameters. This unlimited number of parameters capability can be extremely useful for finite element or finite difference codes with a large number of grid blocks. The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation will use the technique most appropriate for an individual situation. For example, the adjoint method may be used to reduce the scope to a size that can be readily handled by a technique such as LHS. Other techniques for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, e.g., kriging followed by conditional simulation, will be used also. 15 references, 4 figures, 9 tables
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of NET/ITER shielding blankets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hogenbirk, A.; Gruppelaar, H.; Verschuur, K.A.
1990-09-01
Results are presented of sensitivity and uncertainty calculations based upon the European fusion file (EFF-1). The effect of uncertainties in Fe, Cr and Ni cross sections on the nuclear heating in the coils of a NET/ITER shielding blanket has been studied. The analysis has been performed for the total cross section as well as partial cross sections. The correct expression for the sensitivity profile was used, including the gain term. The resulting uncertainty in the nuclear heating lies between 10 and 20 per cent. (author). 18 refs.; 2 figs.; 2 tabs
Sensitivity analysis of critical experiments with evaluated nuclear data libraries
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fujiwara, D.; Kosaka, S.
2008-01-01
Criticality benchmark testing was performed with evaluated nuclear data libraries for thermal, low-enriched uranium fuel rod applications. C/E values for k eff were calculated with the continuous-energy Monte Carlo code MVP2 and its libraries generated from Endf/B-VI.8, Endf/B-VII.0, JENDL-3.3 and JEFF-3.1. Subsequently, the observed k eff discrepancies between libraries were decomposed to specify the source of difference in the nuclear data libraries using sensitivity analysis technique. The obtained sensitivity profiles are also utilized to estimate the adequacy of cold critical experiments to the boiling water reactor under hot operating condition. (authors)
Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea
1996-01-01
The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost
Rethinking Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Simulations with Topology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Paul Rosen; Andrea Alfonsi; Giovanni Pastore; Cristian Rabiti; Valerio Pascucci
2016-01-01
In nuclear engineering, understanding the safety margins of the nuclear reactor via simulations is arguably of paramount importance in predicting and preventing nuclear accidents. It is therefore crucial to perform sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in the model inputs affect the outputs. Modern nuclear simulation tools rely on numerical representations of the sensitivity information -- inherently lacking in visual encodings -- offering limited effectiveness in communicating and exploring the generated data. In this paper, we design a framework for sensitivity analysis and visualization of multidimensional nuclear simulation data using partition-based, topology-inspired regression models and report on its efficacy. We rely on the established Morse-Smale regression technique, which allows us to partition the domain into monotonic regions where easily interpretable linear models can be used to assess the influence of inputs on the output variability. The underlying computation is augmented with an intuitive and interactive visual design to effectively communicate sensitivity information to the nuclear scientists. Our framework is being deployed into the multi-purpose probabilistic risk assessment and uncertainty quantification framework RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual Control Environment). We evaluate our framework using an simulation dataset studying nuclear fuel performance.
Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.
van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L
2017-11-27
Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models
Boas, Sonja E. M.
2015-11-21
Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.
A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.
Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G
2015-11-21
Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.
Anisotropic analysis for seismic sensitivity of groundwater monitoring wells
Pan, Y.; Hsu, K.
2011-12-01
Taiwan is located at the boundaries of Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate. The movement of plate causes crustal uplift and lateral deformation to lead frequent earthquakes in the vicinity of Taiwan. The change of groundwater level trigged by earthquake has been observed and studied in Taiwan for many years. The change of groundwater may appear in oscillation and step changes. The former is caused by seismic waves. The latter is caused by the volumetric strain and reflects the strain status. Since the setting of groundwater monitoring well is easier and cheaper than the setting of strain gauge, the groundwater measurement may be used as a indication of stress. This research proposes the concept of seismic sensitivity of groundwater monitoring well and apply to DonHer station in Taiwan. Geostatistical method is used to analysis the anisotropy of seismic sensitivity. GIS is used to map the sensitive area of the existing groundwater monitoring well.
Sensitivity analysis of predictive models with an automated adjoint generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.
1987-01-01
The adjoint method is a well established sensitivity analysis methodology that is particularly efficient in large-scale modeling problems. The coefficients of sensitivity of a given response with respect to every parameter involved in the modeling code can be calculated from the solution of a single adjoint run of the code. Sensitivity coefficients provide a quantitative measure of the importance of the model data in calculating the final results. The major drawback of the adjoint method is the requirement for calculations of very large numbers of partial derivatives to set up the adjoint equations of the model. ADGEN is a software system that has been designed to eliminate this drawback and automatically implement the adjoint formulation in computer codes. The ADGEN system will be described and its use for improving performance assessments and predictive simulations will be discussed. 8 refs., 1 fig
Sensitivity analysis of time-dependent laminar flows
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hristova, H.; Etienne, S.; Pelletier, D.; Borggaard, J.
2004-01-01
This paper presents a general sensitivity equation method (SEM) for time dependent incompressible laminar flows. The SEM accounts for complex parameter dependence and is suitable for a wide range of problems. The formulation is verified on a problem with a closed form solution obtained by the method of manufactured solution. Systematic grid convergence studies confirm the theoretical rates of convergence in both space and time. The methodology is then applied to pulsatile flow around a square cylinder. Computations show that the flow starts with symmetrical vortex shedding followed by a transition to the traditional Von Karman street (alternate vortex shedding). Simulations show that the transition phase manifests itself earlier in the sensitivity fields than in the flow field itself. Sensitivities are then demonstrated for fast evaluation of nearby flows and uncertainty analysis. (author)
Computational Methods for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Broadhead, B.L.; Childs, R.L.; Rearden, B.T.
1999-01-01
Interest in the sensitivity methods that were developed and widely used in the 1970s (the FORSS methodology at ORNL among others) has increased recently as a result of potential use in the area of criticality safety data validation procedures to define computational bias, uncertainties and area(s) of applicability. Functional forms of the resulting sensitivity coefficients can be used as formal parameters in the determination of applicability of benchmark experiments to their corresponding industrial application areas. In order for these techniques to be generally useful to the criticality safety practitioner, the procedures governing their use had to be updated and simplified. This paper will describe the resulting sensitivity analysis tools that have been generated for potential use by the criticality safety community
Parameter uncertainty effects on variance-based sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu, W.; Harris, T.J.
2009-01-01
In the past several years there has been considerable commercial and academic interest in methods for variance-based sensitivity analysis. The industrial focus is motivated by the importance of attributing variance contributions to input factors. A more complete understanding of these relationships enables companies to achieve goals related to quality, safety and asset utilization. In a number of applications, it is possible to distinguish between two types of input variables-regressive variables and model parameters. Regressive variables are those that can be influenced by process design or by a control strategy. With model parameters, there are typically no opportunities to directly influence their variability. In this paper, we propose a new method to perform sensitivity analysis through a partitioning of the input variables into these two groupings: regressive variables and model parameters. A sequential analysis is proposed, where first an sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the regressive variables. In the second step, the uncertainty effects arising from the model parameters are included. This strategy can be quite useful in understanding process variability and in developing strategies to reduce overall variability. When this method is used for nonlinear models which are linear in the parameters, analytical solutions can be utilized. In the more general case of models that are nonlinear in both the regressive variables and the parameters, either first order approximations can be used, or numerically intensive methods must be used
Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution
2011-01-01
Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095
Uncertain and multi-objective programming models for crop planting structure optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mo LI,Ping GUO,Liudong ZHANG,Chenglong ZHANG
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Crop planting structure optimization is a significant way to increase agricultural economic benefits and improve agricultural water management. The complexities of fluctuating stream conditions, varying economic profits, and uncertainties and errors in estimated modeling parameters, as well as the complexities among economic, social, natural resources and environmental aspects, have led to the necessity of developing optimization models for crop planting structure which consider uncertainty and multi-objectives elements. In this study, three single-objective programming models under uncertainty for crop planting structure optimization were developed, including an interval linear programming model, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained programming (IFCCP model and an inexact fuzzy linear programming (IFLP model. Each of the three models takes grayness into account. Moreover, the IFCCP model considers fuzzy uncertainty of parameters/variables and stochastic characteristics of constraints, while the IFLP model takes into account the fuzzy uncertainty of both constraints and objective functions. To satisfy the sustainable development of crop planting structure planning, a fuzzy-optimization-theory-based fuzzy linear multi-objective programming model was developed, which is capable of reflecting both uncertainties and multi-objective. In addition, a multi-objective fractional programming model for crop structure optimization was also developed to quantitatively express the multi-objective in one optimization model with the numerator representing maximum economic benefits and the denominator representing minimum crop planting area allocation. These models better reflect actual situations, considering the uncertainties and multi-objectives of crop planting structure optimization systems. The five models developed were then applied to a real case study in Minqin County, north-west China. The advantages, the applicable conditions and the solution methods
Sensitivity Analysis of Deviation Source for Fast Assembly Precision Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jianjun Tang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Assembly precision optimization of complex product has a huge benefit in improving the quality of our products. Due to the impact of a variety of deviation source coupling phenomena, the goal of assembly precision optimization is difficult to be confirmed accurately. In order to achieve optimization of assembly precision accurately and rapidly, sensitivity analysis of deviation source is proposed. First, deviation source sensitivity is defined as the ratio of assembly dimension variation and deviation source dimension variation. Second, according to assembly constraint relations, assembly sequences and locating, deviation transmission paths are established by locating the joints between the adjacent parts, and establishing each part’s datum reference frame. Third, assembly multidimensional vector loops are created using deviation transmission paths, and the corresponding scalar equations of each dimension are established. Then, assembly deviation source sensitivity is calculated by using a first-order Taylor expansion and matrix transformation method. Finally, taking assembly precision optimization of wing flap rocker as an example, the effectiveness and efficiency of the deviation source sensitivity analysis method are verified.
Sensitivity analysis for improving nanomechanical photonic transducers biosensors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fariña, D; Álvarez, M; Márquez, S; Lechuga, L M; Dominguez, C
2015-01-01
The achievement of high sensitivity and highly integrated transducers is one of the main challenges in the development of high-throughput biosensors. The aim of this study is to improve the final sensitivity of an opto-mechanical device to be used as a reliable biosensor. We report the analysis of the mechanical and optical properties of optical waveguide microcantilever transducers, and their dependency on device design and dimensions. The selected layout (geometry) based on two butt-coupled misaligned waveguides displays better sensitivities than an aligned one. With this configuration, we find that an optimal microcantilever thickness range between 150 nm and 400 nm would increase both microcantilever bending during the biorecognition process and increase optical sensitivity to 4.8 × 10 −2 nm −1 , an order of magnitude higher than other similar opto-mechanical devices. Moreover, the analysis shows that a single mode behaviour of the propagating radiation is required to avoid modal interference that could misinterpret the readout signal. (paper)
Multiobjective Optimal Algorithm for Automatic Calibration of Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi Liu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Single-objection function cannot describe the characteristics of the complicated hydrologic system. Consequently, it stands to reason that multiobjective functions are needed for calibration of hydrologic model. The multiobjective algorithms based on the theory of nondominate are employed to solve this multiobjective optimal problem. In this paper, a novel multiobjective optimization method based on differential evolution with adaptive Cauchy mutation and Chaos searching (MODE-CMCS is proposed to optimize the daily streamflow forecasting model. Besides, to enhance the diversity performance of Pareto solutions, a more precise crowd distance assigner is presented in this paper. Furthermore, the traditional generalized spread metric (SP is sensitive with the size of Pareto set. A novel diversity performance metric, which is independent of Pareto set size, is put forward in this research. The efficacy of the new algorithm MODE-CMCS is compared with the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II on a daily streamflow forecasting model based on support vector machine (SVM. The results verify that the performance of MODE-CMCS is superior to the NSGA-II for automatic calibration of hydrologic model.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gerstl, S.A.W.
1980-01-01
SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE.
Least Squares Shadowing sensitivity analysis of chaotic limit cycle oscillations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Qiqi, E-mail: qiqi@mit.edu; Hu, Rui, E-mail: hurui@mit.edu; Blonigan, Patrick, E-mail: blonigan@mit.edu
2014-06-15
The adjoint method, among other sensitivity analysis methods, can fail in chaotic dynamical systems. The result from these methods can be too large, often by orders of magnitude, when the result is the derivative of a long time averaged quantity. This failure is known to be caused by ill-conditioned initial value problems. This paper overcomes this failure by replacing the initial value problem with the well-conditioned “least squares shadowing (LSS) problem”. The LSS problem is then linearized in our sensitivity analysis algorithm, which computes a derivative that converges to the derivative of the infinitely long time average. We demonstrate our algorithm in several dynamical systems exhibiting both periodic and chaotic oscillations.
Therapeutic Implications from Sensitivity Analysis of Tumor Angiogenesis Models
Poleszczuk, Jan; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Enderling, Heiko
2015-01-01
Anti-angiogenic cancer treatments induce tumor starvation and regression by targeting the tumor vasculature that delivers oxygen and nutrients. Mathematical models prove valuable tools to study the proof-of-concept, efficacy and underlying mechanisms of such treatment approaches. The effects of parameter value uncertainties for two models of tumor development under angiogenic signaling and anti-angiogenic treatment are studied. Data fitting is performed to compare predictions of both models and to obtain nominal parameter values for sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the success of different cancer treatments depends on tumor size and tumor intrinsic parameters. In particular, we show that tumors with ample vascular support can be successfully targeted with conventional cytotoxic treatments. On the other hand, tumors with curtailed vascular support are not limited by their growth rate and therefore interruption of neovascularization emerges as the most promising treatment target. PMID:25785600
Global sensitivity analysis of multiscale properties of porous materials
Um, Kimoon; Zhang, Xuan; Katsoulakis, Markos; Plechac, Petr; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.
2018-02-01
Ubiquitous uncertainty about pore geometry inevitably undermines the veracity of pore- and multi-scale simulations of transport phenomena in porous media. It raises two fundamental issues: sensitivity of effective material properties to pore-scale parameters and statistical parameterization of Darcy-scale models that accounts for pore-scale uncertainty. Homogenization-based maps of pore-scale parameters onto their Darcy-scale counterparts facilitate both sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification. We treat uncertain geometric characteristics of a hierarchical porous medium as random variables to conduct global SA and to derive probabilistic descriptors of effective diffusion coefficients and effective sorption rate. Our analysis is formulated in terms of solute transport diffusing through a fluid-filled pore space, while sorbing to the solid matrix. Yet it is sufficiently general to be applied to other multiscale porous media phenomena that are amenable to homogenization.
Sensitivity analysis overlaps of friction elements in cartridge seals
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Žmindák Milan
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Cartridge seals are self-contained units consisting of a shaft sleeve, seals, and gland plate. The applications of mechanical seals are numerous. The most common example of application is in bearing production for automobile industry. This paper deals with the sensitivity analysis of overlaps friction elements in cartridge seal and their influence on the friction torque sealing and compressive force. Furthermore, it describes materials for the manufacture of sealings, approaches usually used to solution of hyperelastic materials by FEM and short introduction into the topic wheel bearings. The practical part contains one of the approach for measurement friction torque, which results were used to specifying the methodology and precision of FEM calculation realized by software ANSYS WORKBENCH. This part also contains the sensitivity analysis of overlaps friction elements.
An overview of the design and analysis of simulation experiments for sensitivity analysis
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2005-01-01
Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models. This review surveys 'classic' and 'modern' designs for experiments with simulation models. Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc. These designs
Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
Harry R. Millwater; R. Wesley Osborn
2006-01-01
A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel) and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or su...
Influence analysis to assess sensitivity of the dropout process
Molenberghs, Geert; Verbeke, Geert; Thijs, Herbert; Lesaffre, Emmanuel; Kenward, Michael
2001-01-01
Diggle and Kenward (Appl. Statist. 43 (1994) 49) proposed a selection model for continuous longitudinal data subject to possible non-random dropout. It has provoked a large debate about the role for such models. The original enthusiasm was followed by skepticism about the strong but untestable assumption upon which this type of models invariably rests. Since then, the view has emerged that these models should ideally be made part of a sensitivity analysis. One of their examples is a set of da...
Synthesis, Characterization, and Sensitivity Analysis of Urea Nitrate (UN)
2015-04-01
determined. From the results of the study, UN is safe to store under normal operating conditions. 15. SUBJECT TERMS urea, nitrate , sensitivity, thermal ...HNO3). Due to its simple composition, ease of manufacture, and higher detonation parameters than ammonium nitrate , it has become one of the...an H50 value of 10.054 ± 0.620 inches. 5. Conclusions From the results of the thermal analysis study, it can be concluded that urea nitrate is
Applications of the TSUNAMI sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rearden, Bradley T.; Hopper, Calvin M.; Elam, Karla R.; Goluoglu, Sedat; Parks, Cecil V.
2003-01-01
The TSUNAMI sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools under development for the SCALE code system have recently been applied in four criticality safety studies. TSUNAMI is used to identify applicable benchmark experiments for criticality code validation, assist in the design of new critical experiments for a particular need, reevaluate previously computed computational biases, and assess the validation coverage and propose a penalty for noncoverage for a specific application. (author)
Conflicting Multi-Objective Compatible Optimization Control
Xu, Lihong; Hu, Qingsong; Hu, Haigen; Goodman, Erik
2010-01-01
Based on ideas developed in addressing practical greenhouse environmental control, we propose a new multi-objective compatible control method. Several detailed algorithms are proposed to meet the requirements of different kinds of problem: 1) A two-layer MOCC framework is presented for problems with a precise model; 2) To deal with situations
Dynamic Uniform Scaling for Multiobjective Genetic Algorithms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Gerulf; Goldberg, David E.
2004-01-01
Before Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) can be used as a widespread tool for solving arbitrary real world problems there are some salient issues which require further investigation. One of these issues is how a uniform distribution of solutions along the Pareto non-dominated front c...
Dynamic Uniform Scaling for Multiobjective Genetic Algorithms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Gerulf; Goldberg, D.E.
2004-01-01
Before Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) can be used as a widespread tool for solving arbitrary real world problems there are some salient issues which require further investigation. One of these issues is how a uniform distribution of solutions along the Pareto non-dominated front can...
Multiobjective optimization of an extremal evolution model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elettreby, M.F.
2004-09-01
We propose a two-dimensional model for a co-evolving ecosystem that generalizes the extremal coupled map lattice model. The model takes into account the concept of multiobjective optimization. We find that the system self-organizes into a critical state. The distributions of the distances between subsequent mutations as well as the distribution of avalanches sizes follow power law. (author)
Adaptive Gradient Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization.
Han, Honggui; Lu, Wei; Zhang, Lu; Qiao, Junfei
2017-10-09
An adaptive gradient multiobjective particle swarm optimization (AGMOPSO) algorithm, based on a multiobjective gradient (stocktickerMOG) method and a self-adaptive flight parameters mechanism, is developed to improve the computation performance in this paper. In this AGMOPSO algorithm, the stocktickerMOG method is devised to update the archive to improve the convergence speed and the local exploitation in the evolutionary process. Meanwhile, the self-adaptive flight parameters mechanism, according to the diversity information of the particles, is then established to balance the convergence and diversity of AGMOPSO. Attributed to the stocktickerMOG method and the self-adaptive flight parameters mechanism, this AGMOPSO algorithm not only has faster convergence speed and higher accuracy, but also its solutions have better diversity. Additionally, the convergence is discussed to confirm the prerequisite of any successful application of AGMOPSO. Finally, with regard to the computation performance, the proposed AGMOPSO algorithm is compared with some other multiobjective particle swarm optimization algorithms and two state-of-the-art multiobjective algorithms. The results demonstrate that the proposed AGMOPSO algorithm can find better spread of solutions and have faster convergence to the true Pareto-optimal front.
Multi-objective Transmission Planning Paper
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Xu, Zhao; Dong, Zhao Yang; Wong, Kit Po
2009-01-01
This paper describes a transmission expansion planning method based on multi-objective optimization (MOOP). The method starts with constructing a candidate pool of feasible expansion plans, followed by selection of the best candidates through MOOP, of which multiple objectives are tackled...
Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model
Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.
2010-01-01
As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.
Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Zeping; Wang, Donghui; Okolo N, Patrick; Hu, Fan; Zhang, Weihua
2016-01-01
Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on response variables. Amongst the wide range of documented studies on sensitivity measures and analysis, Sobol' indices have received greater portion of attention due to the fact that they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a novel analytical expression to compute the Sobol' indices is derived by introducing a method which uses the Gaussian Radial Basis Function to build metamodels of computationally expensive computer codes. Performance of the proposed method is validated against various analytical functions and also a structural simulation scenario. Results demonstrate that the proposed method is an efficient approach, requiring a computational cost of one to two orders of magnitude less when compared to the traditional Quasi Monte Carlo-based evaluation of Sobol' indices. - Highlights: • RBF based sensitivity analysis method is proposed. • Sobol' decomposition of Gaussian RBF metamodel is obtained. • Sobol' indices of Gaussian RBF metamodel are derived based on the decomposition. • The efficiency of proposed method is validated by some numerical examples.
Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code (2) (Contract research)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki
2008-08-01
Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant economic efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristic is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons: the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion
Sensitivity analysis in multiple imputation in effectiveness studies of psychotherapy.
Crameri, Aureliano; von Wyl, Agnes; Koemeda, Margit; Schulthess, Peter; Tschuschke, Volker
2015-01-01
The importance of preventing and treating incomplete data in effectiveness studies is nowadays emphasized. However, most of the publications focus on randomized clinical trials (RCT). One flexible technique for statistical inference with missing data is multiple imputation (MI). Since methods such as MI rely on the assumption of missing data being at random (MAR), a sensitivity analysis for testing the robustness against departures from this assumption is required. In this paper we present a sensitivity analysis technique based on posterior predictive checking, which takes into consideration the concept of clinical significance used in the evaluation of intra-individual changes. We demonstrate the possibilities this technique can offer with the example of irregular longitudinal data collected with the Outcome Questionnaire-45 (OQ-45) and the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAQ) in a sample of 260 outpatients. The sensitivity analysis can be used to (1) quantify the degree of bias introduced by missing not at random data (MNAR) in a worst reasonable case scenario, (2) compare the performance of different analysis methods for dealing with missing data, or (3) detect the influence of possible violations to the model assumptions (e.g., lack of normality). Moreover, our analysis showed that ratings from the patient's and therapist's version of the HAQ could significantly improve the predictive value of the routine outcome monitoring based on the OQ-45. Since analysis dropouts always occur, repeated measurements with the OQ-45 and the HAQ analyzed with MI are useful to improve the accuracy of outcome estimates in quality assurance assessments and non-randomized effectiveness studies in the field of outpatient psychotherapy.
B1 -sensitivity analysis of quantitative magnetization transfer imaging.
Boudreau, Mathieu; Stikov, Nikola; Pike, G Bruce
2018-01-01
To evaluate the sensitivity of quantitative magnetization transfer (qMT) fitted parameters to B 1 inaccuracies, focusing on the difference between two categories of T 1 mapping techniques: B 1 -independent and B 1 -dependent. The B 1 -sensitivity of qMT was investigated and compared using two T 1 measurement methods: inversion recovery (IR) (B 1 -independent) and variable flip angle (VFA), B 1 -dependent). The study was separated into four stages: 1) numerical simulations, 2) sensitivity analysis of the Z-spectra, 3) healthy subjects at 3T, and 4) comparison using three different B 1 imaging techniques. For typical B 1 variations in the brain at 3T (±30%), the simulations resulted in errors of the pool-size ratio (F) ranging from -3% to 7% for VFA, and -40% to > 100% for IR, agreeing with the Z-spectra sensitivity analysis. In healthy subjects, pooled whole-brain Pearson correlation coefficients for F (comparing measured double angle and nominal flip angle B 1 maps) were ρ = 0.97/0.81 for VFA/IR. This work describes the B 1 -sensitivity characteristics of qMT, demonstrating that it varies substantially on the B 1 -dependency of the T 1 mapping method. Particularly, the pool-size ratio is more robust against B 1 inaccuracies if VFA T 1 mapping is used, so much so that B 1 mapping could be omitted without substantially biasing F. Magn Reson Med 79:276-285, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.
Heuristics for multiobjective multiple sequence alignment.
Abbasi, Maryam; Paquete, Luís; Pereira, Francisco B
2016-07-15
Aligning multiple sequences arises in many tasks in Bioinformatics. However, the alignments produced by the current software packages are highly dependent on the parameters setting, such as the relative importance of opening gaps with respect to the increase of similarity. Choosing only one parameter setting may provide an undesirable bias in further steps of the analysis and give too simplistic interpretations. In this work, we reformulate multiple sequence alignment from a multiobjective point of view. The goal is to generate several sequence alignments that represent a trade-off between maximizing the substitution score and minimizing the number of indels/gaps in the sum-of-pairs score function. This trade-off gives to the practitioner further information about the similarity of the sequences, from which she could analyse and choose the most plausible alignment. We introduce several heuristic approaches, based on local search procedures, that compute a set of sequence alignments, which are representative of the trade-off between the two objectives (substitution score and indels). Several algorithm design options are discussed and analysed, with particular emphasis on the influence of the starting alignment and neighborhood search definitions on the overall performance. A perturbation technique is proposed to improve the local search, which provides a wide range of high-quality alignments. The proposed approach is tested experimentally on a wide range of instances. We performed several experiments with sequences obtained from the benchmark database BAliBASE 3.0. To evaluate the quality of the results, we calculate the hypervolume indicator of the set of score vectors returned by the algorithms. The results obtained allow us to identify reasonably good choices of parameters for our approach. Further, we compared our method in terms of correctly aligned pairs ratio and columns correctly aligned ratio with respect to reference alignments. Experimental results show
Probability and sensitivity analysis of machine foundation and soil interaction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Králik J., jr.
2009-06-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the possibility of the sensitivity and probabilistic analysis of the reliability of the machine foundation depending on variability of the soil stiffness, structure geometry and compressor operation. The requirements to design of the foundation under rotating machines increased due to development of calculation method and computer tools. During the structural design process, an engineer has to consider problems of the soil-foundation and foundation-machine interaction from the safety, reliability and durability of structure point of view. The advantages and disadvantages of the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the machine foundation resistance are discussed. The sensitivity of the machine foundation to the uncertainties of the soil properties due to longtime rotating movement of machine is not negligible for design engineers. On the example of compressor foundation and turbine fy. SIEMENS AG the affectivity of the probabilistic design methodology was presented. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS simulation method for the analysis of the compressor foundation reliability was used on program ANSYS. The 200 simulations for five load cases were calculated in the real time on PC. The probabilistic analysis gives us more complex information about the soil-foundation-machine interaction as the deterministic analysis.
A multiobjective approach to the genetic code adaptability problem.
de Oliveira, Lariza Laura; de Oliveira, Paulo S L; Tinós, Renato
2015-02-19
The organization of the canonical code has intrigued researches since it was first described. If we consider all codes mapping the 64 codes into 20 amino acids and one stop codon, there are more than 1.51×10(84) possible genetic codes. The main question related to the organization of the genetic code is why exactly the canonical code was selected among this huge number of possible genetic codes. Many researchers argue that the organization of the canonical code is a product of natural selection and that the code's robustness against mutations would support this hypothesis. In order to investigate the natural selection hypothesis, some researches employ optimization algorithms to identify regions of the genetic code space where best codes, according to a given evaluation function, can be found (engineering approach). The optimization process uses only one objective to evaluate the codes, generally based on the robustness for an amino acid property. Only one objective is also employed in the statistical approach for the comparison of the canonical code with random codes. We propose a multiobjective approach where two or more objectives are considered simultaneously to evaluate the genetic codes. In order to test our hypothesis that the multiobjective approach is useful for the analysis of the genetic code adaptability, we implemented a multiobjective optimization algorithm where two objectives are simultaneously optimized. Using as objectives the robustness against mutation with the amino acids properties polar requirement (objective 1) and robustness with respect to hydropathy index or molecular volume (objective 2), we found solutions closer to the canonical genetic code in terms of robustness, when compared with the results using only one objective reported by other authors. Using more objectives, more optimal solutions are obtained and, as a consequence, more information can be used to investigate the adaptability of the genetic code. The multiobjective approach
Global Sensitivity Analysis for multivariate output using Polynomial Chaos Expansion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garcia-Cabrejo, Oscar; Valocchi, Albert
2014-01-01
Many mathematical and computational models used in engineering produce multivariate output that shows some degree of correlation. However, conventional approaches to Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) assume that the output variable is scalar. These approaches are applied on each output variable leading to a large number of sensitivity indices that shows a high degree of redundancy making the interpretation of the results difficult. Two approaches have been proposed for GSA in the case of multivariate output: output decomposition approach [9] and covariance decomposition approach [14] but they are computationally intensive for most practical problems. In this paper, Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is used for an efficient GSA with multivariate output. The results indicate that PCE allows efficient estimation of the covariance matrix and GSA on the coefficients in the approach defined by Campbell et al. [9], and the development of analytical expressions for the multivariate sensitivity indices defined by Gamboa et al. [14]. - Highlights: • PCE increases computational efficiency in 2 approaches of GSA of multivariate output. • Efficient estimation of covariance matrix of output from coefficients of PCE. • Efficient GSA on coefficients of orthogonal decomposition of the output using PCE. • Analytical expressions of multivariate sensitivity indices from coefficients of PCE
Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the WAVEWATCH III Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Beng-Chun Lee
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The parameters in numerical wave models need to be calibrated be fore a model can be applied to a specific region. In this study, we selected the 8 most important parameters from the source term of the WAVEWATCH III model and subjected them to sensitivity analysis to evaluate the sensitivity of the WAVEWATCH III model to the selected parameters to determine how many of these parameters should be considered for further discussion, and to justify the significance priority of each parameter. After ranking each parameter by sensitivity and assessing their cumulative impact, we adopted the ARS method to search for the optimal values of those parameters to which the WAVEWATCH III model is most sensitive by comparing modeling results with ob served data at two data buoys off the coast of north eastern Taiwan; the goal being to find optimal parameter values for improved modeling of wave development. The procedure adopting optimal parameters in wave simulations did improve the accuracy of the WAVEWATCH III model in comparison to default runs based on field observations at two buoys.
ADGEN: a system for automated sensitivity analysis of predictive models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.; Horwedel, J.E.; Oblow, E.M.; Lucius, J.L.
1987-01-01
A system that can automatically enhance computer codes with a sensitivity calculation capability is presented. With this new system, named ADGEN, rapid and cost-effective calculation of sensitivities can be performed in any FORTRAN code for all input data or parameters. The resulting sensitivities can be used in performance assessment studies related to licensing or interactions with the public to systematically and quantitatively prove the relative importance of each of the system parameters in calculating the final performance results. A general procedure calling for the systematic use of sensitivities in assessment studies is presented. The procedure can be used in modeling and model validation studies to avoid over modeling, in site characterization planning to avoid over collection of data, and in performance assessments to determine the uncertainties on the final calculated results. The added capability to formally perform the inverse problem, i.e., to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus additional research or analysis effort in order to improve the uncertainty of the final results, is also discussed. 7 references, 2 figures
ADGEN: a system for automated sensitivity analysis of predictive models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.; Horwedel, J.E.; Oblow, E.M.; Lucius, J.L.
1986-09-01
A system that can automatically enhance computer codes with a sensitivity calculation capability is presented. With this new system, named ADGEN, rapid and cost-effective calculation of sensitivities can be performed in any FORTRAN code for all input data or parameters. The resulting sensitivities can be used in performance assessment studies related to licensing or interactions with the public to systematically and quantitatively prove the relative importance of each of the system parameters in calculating the final performance results. A general procedure calling for the systematic use of sensitivities in assessment studies is presented. The procedure can be used in modelling and model validation studies to avoid ''over modelling,'' in site characterization planning to avoid ''over collection of data,'' and in performance assessment to determine the uncertainties on the final calculated results. The added capability to formally perform the inverse problem, i.e., to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus additional research or analysis effort in order to improve the uncertainty of the final results, is also discussed
Sensitivity analysis: Interaction of DOE SNF and packaging materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anderson, P.A.; Kirkham, R.J.; Shaber, E.L.
1999-01-01
A sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the technical issues pertaining to possible destructive interactions between spent nuclear fuels (SNFs) and the stainless steel canisters. When issues are identified through such an analysis, they provide the technical basis for answering what if questions and, if needed, for conducting additional analyses, testing, or other efforts to resolve them in order to base the licensing on solid technical grounds. The analysis reported herein systematically assessed the chemical and physical properties and the potential interactions of the materials that comprise typical US Department of Energy (DOE) SNFs and the stainless steel canisters in which they will be stored, transported, and placed in a geologic repository for final disposition. The primary focus in each step of the analysis was to identify any possible phenomena that could potentially compromise the structural integrity of the canisters and to assess their thermodynamic feasibility
Linear regression and sensitivity analysis in nuclear reactor design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kumar, Akansha; Tsvetkov, Pavel V.; McClarren, Ryan G.
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Presented a benchmark for the applicability of linear regression to complex systems. • Applied linear regression to a nuclear reactor power system. • Performed neutronics, thermal–hydraulics, and energy conversion using Brayton’s cycle for the design of a GCFBR. • Performed detailed sensitivity analysis to a set of parameters in a nuclear reactor power system. • Modeled and developed reactor design using MCNP, regression using R, and thermal–hydraulics in Java. - Abstract: The paper presents a general strategy applicable for sensitivity analysis (SA), and uncertainity quantification analysis (UA) of parameters related to a nuclear reactor design. This work also validates the use of linear regression (LR) for predictive analysis in a nuclear reactor design. The analysis helps to determine the parameters on which a LR model can be fit for predictive analysis. For those parameters, a regression surface is created based on trial data and predictions are made using this surface. A general strategy of SA to determine and identify the influential parameters those affect the operation of the reactor is mentioned. Identification of design parameters and validation of linearity assumption for the application of LR of reactor design based on a set of tests is performed. The testing methods used to determine the behavior of the parameters can be used as a general strategy for UA, and SA of nuclear reactor models, and thermal hydraulics calculations. A design of a gas cooled fast breeder reactor (GCFBR), with thermal–hydraulics, and energy transfer has been used for the demonstration of this method. MCNP6 is used to simulate the GCFBR design, and perform the necessary criticality calculations. Java is used to build and run input samples, and to extract data from the output files of MCNP6, and R is used to perform regression analysis and other multivariate variance, and analysis of the collinearity of data
Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis
Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng
2017-11-01
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.
Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.
Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M
2014-12-01
Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.
Nejlaoui, Mohamed; Houidi, Ajmi; Affi, Zouhaier; Romdhane, Lotfi
2017-10-01
This paper deals with the robust safety design optimization of a rail vehicle system moving in short radius curved tracks. A combined multi-objective imperialist competitive algorithm and Monte Carlo method is developed and used for the robust multi-objective optimization of the rail vehicle system. This robust optimization of rail vehicle safety considers simultaneously the derailment angle and its standard deviation where the design parameters uncertainties are considered. The obtained results showed that the robust design reduces significantly the sensitivity of the rail vehicle safety to the design parameters uncertainties compared to the determinist one and to the literature results.
Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saltelli, Andrea; Ratto, Marco; Tarantola, Stefano; Campolongo, Francesca
2006-01-01
Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA
Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Saltelli, Andrea [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: andrea.saltelli@jrc.it; Ratto, Marco [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Tarantola, Stefano [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy)
2006-10-15
Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA.
Regional and parametric sensitivity analysis of Sobol' indices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei, Pengfei; Lu, Zhenzhou; Song, Jingwen
2015-01-01
Nowadays, utilizing the Monte Carlo estimators for variance-based sensitivity analysis has gained sufficient popularity in many research fields. These estimators are usually based on n+2 sample matrices well designed for computing both the main and total effect indices, where n is the input dimension. The aim of this paper is to use such n+2 sample matrices to investigate how the main and total effect indices change when the uncertainty of the model inputs are reduced. For this purpose, the regional main and total effect functions are defined for measuring the changes on the main and total effect indices when the distribution range of one input is reduced, and the parametric main and total effect functions are introduced to quantify the residual main and total effect indices due to the reduced variance of one input. Monte Carlo estimators are derived for all the developed sensitivity concepts based on the n+2 samples matrices originally used for computing the main and total effect indices, thus no extra computational cost is introduced. The Ishigami function, a nonlinear model and a planar ten-bar structure are utilized for illustrating the developed sensitivity concepts, and for demonstrating the efficiency and accuracy of the derived Monte Carlo estimators. - Highlights: • The regional main and total effect functions are developed. • The parametric main and total effect functions are introduced. • The proposed sensitivity functions are all generalizations of Sobol' indices. • The Monte Carlo estimators are derived for the four sensitivity functions. • The computational cost of the estimators is the same as that of Sobol' indices
A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models
Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.
1975-01-01
Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.
Stochastic sensitivity analysis and Langevin simulation for neural network learning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koda, Masato
1997-01-01
A comprehensive theoretical framework is proposed for the learning of a class of gradient-type neural networks with an additive Gaussian white noise process. The study is based on stochastic sensitivity analysis techniques, and formal expressions are obtained for stochastic learning laws in terms of functional derivative sensitivity coefficients. The present method, based on Langevin simulation techniques, uses only the internal states of the network and ubiquitous noise to compute the learning information inherent in the stochastic correlation between noise signals and the performance functional. In particular, the method does not require the solution of adjoint equations of the back-propagation type. Thus, the present algorithm has the potential for efficiently learning network weights with significantly fewer computations. Application to an unfolded multi-layered network is described, and the results are compared with those obtained by using a back-propagation method
An easily implemented static condensation method for structural sensitivity analysis
Gangadharan, S. N.; Haftka, R. T.; Nikolaidis, E.
1990-01-01
A black-box approach to static condensation for sensitivity analysis is presented with illustrative examples of a cube and a car structure. The sensitivity of the structural response with respect to joint stiffness parameter is calculated using the direct method, forward-difference, and central-difference schemes. The efficiency of the various methods for identifying joint stiffness parameters from measured static deflections of these structures is compared. The results indicate that the use of static condensation can reduce computation times significantly and the black-box approach is only slightly less efficient than the standard implementation of static condensation. The ease of implementation of the black-box approach recommends it for use with general-purpose finite element codes that do not have a built-in facility for static condensation.
Schlottfeldt, S; Walter, M E M T; Carvalho, A C P L F; Soares, T N; Telles, M P C; Loyola, R D; Diniz-Filho, J A F
2015-06-18
Biodiversity crises have led scientists to develop strategies for achieving conservation goals. The underlying principle of these strategies lies in systematic conservation planning (SCP), in which there are at least 2 conflicting objectives, making it a good candidate for multi-objective optimization. Although SCP is typically applied at the species level (or hierarchically higher), it can be used at lower hierarchical levels, such as using alleles as basic units for analysis, for conservation genetics. Here, we propose a method of SCP using a multi-objective approach. We used non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II in order to identify the smallest set of local populations of Dipteryx alata (baru) (a Brazilian Cerrado species) for conservation, representing the known genetic diversity and using allele frequency information associated with heterozygosity and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. We worked in 3 variations for the problem. First, we reproduced a previous experiment, but using a multi-objective approach. We found that the smallest set of populations needed to represent all alleles under study was 7, corroborating the results of the previous study, but with more distinct solutions. In the 2nd and 3rd variations, we performed simultaneous optimization of 4 and 5 objectives, respectively. We found similar but refined results for 7 populations, and a larger portfolio considering intra-specific diversity and persistence with populations ranging from 8-22. This is the first study to apply multi-objective algorithms to an SCP problem using alleles at the population level as basic units for analysis.
SU-F-R-10: Selecting the Optimal Solution for Multi-Objective Radiomics Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhou, Z; Folkert, M; Wang, J
2016-01-01
Purpose: To develop an evidential reasoning approach for selecting the optimal solution from a Pareto solution set obtained by a multi-objective radiomics model for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Methods: In the multi-objective radiomics model, both sensitivity and specificity are considered as the objective functions simultaneously. A Pareto solution set with many feasible solutions will be resulted from the multi-objective optimization. In this work, an optimal solution Selection methodology for Multi-Objective radiomics Learning model using the Evidential Reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed to select the optimal solution from the Pareto solution set. The proposed SMOLER method used the evidential reasoning approach to calculate the utility of each solution based on pre-set optimal solution selection rules. The solution with the highest utility was chosen as the optimal solution. In SMOLER, an optimal learning model coupled with clonal selection algorithm was used to optimize model parameters. In this study, PET, CT image features and clinical parameters were utilized for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Results: Total 126 solution sets were generated by adjusting predictive model parameters. Each Pareto set contains 100 feasible solutions. The solution selected by SMOLER within each Pareto set was compared to the manually selected optimal solution. Five-cross-validation was used to evaluate the optimal solution selection accuracy of SMOLER. The selection accuracies for five folds were 80.00%, 69.23%, 84.00%, 84.00%, 80.00%, respectively. Conclusion: An optimal solution selection methodology for multi-objective radiomics learning model using the evidential reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed. Experimental results show that the optimal solution can be found in approximately 80% cases.
SU-F-R-10: Selecting the Optimal Solution for Multi-Objective Radiomics Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhou, Z; Folkert, M; Wang, J [UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX (United States)
2016-06-15
Purpose: To develop an evidential reasoning approach for selecting the optimal solution from a Pareto solution set obtained by a multi-objective radiomics model for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Methods: In the multi-objective radiomics model, both sensitivity and specificity are considered as the objective functions simultaneously. A Pareto solution set with many feasible solutions will be resulted from the multi-objective optimization. In this work, an optimal solution Selection methodology for Multi-Objective radiomics Learning model using the Evidential Reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed to select the optimal solution from the Pareto solution set. The proposed SMOLER method used the evidential reasoning approach to calculate the utility of each solution based on pre-set optimal solution selection rules. The solution with the highest utility was chosen as the optimal solution. In SMOLER, an optimal learning model coupled with clonal selection algorithm was used to optimize model parameters. In this study, PET, CT image features and clinical parameters were utilized for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Results: Total 126 solution sets were generated by adjusting predictive model parameters. Each Pareto set contains 100 feasible solutions. The solution selected by SMOLER within each Pareto set was compared to the manually selected optimal solution. Five-cross-validation was used to evaluate the optimal solution selection accuracy of SMOLER. The selection accuracies for five folds were 80.00%, 69.23%, 84.00%, 84.00%, 80.00%, respectively. Conclusion: An optimal solution selection methodology for multi-objective radiomics learning model using the evidential reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed. Experimental results show that the optimal solution can be found in approximately 80% cases.
Harshan, Suraj
The main objective of the present thesis is the improvement of the TEB/ISBA (SURFEX) urban land surface model (ULSM) through comprehensive evaluation, sensitivity analysis, and optimization experiments using energy balance and radiative and air temperature data observed during 11 months at a tropical sub-urban site in Singapore. Overall the performance of the model is satisfactory, with a small underestimation of net radiation and an overestimation of sensible heat flux. Weaknesses in predicting the latent heat flux are apparent with smaller model values during daytime and the model also significantly underpredicts both the daytime peak and nighttime storage heat. Surface temperatures of all facets are generally overpredicted. Significant variation exists in the model behaviour between dry and wet seasons. The vegetation parametrization used in the model is inadequate to represent the moisture dynamics, producing unrealistically low latent heat fluxes during a particularly dry period. The comprehensive evaluation of the USLM shows the need for accurate estimation of input parameter values for present site. Since obtaining many of these parameters through empirical methods is not feasible, the present study employed a two step approach aimed at providing information about the most sensitive parameters and an optimized parameter set from model calibration. Two well established sensitivity analysis methods (global: Sobol and local: Morris) and a state-of-the-art multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (Borg) were employed for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation. Experiments were carried out for three different weather periods. The analysis indicates that roof related parameters are the most important ones in controlling the behaviour of the sensible heat flux and net radiation flux, with roof and road albedo as the most influential parameters. Soil moisture initialization parameters are important in controlling the latent heat flux. The built (town) fraction
Nuclear data sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for XT-ADS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sugawara, Takanori; Sarotto, Massimo; Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert
2011-01-01
Highlights: → The sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. → The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. → When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. → To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition. - Abstract: The XT-ADS, an accelerator-driven system for an experimental demonstration, has been investigated in the framework of IP EUROTRANS FP6 project. In this study, the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. For the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the sensitivity coefficients were significantly different by changing the geometry models and calculation codes. For the uncertainty analysis, it was confirmed that the uncertainties deduced from the covariance data varied significantly by changing them. The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the nuclear fuel thermal behavior
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boulore, A., E-mail: antoine.boulore@cea.fr [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Struzik, C. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Gaudier, F. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Systems and Structure Modeling Department, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
2012-12-15
Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A complete quantitative method for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis is applied. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2} is modeled as a random variable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The first source of uncertainty is the linear heat rate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The second source of uncertainty is the thermal conductivity of the fuel. - Abstract: In the global framework of nuclear fuel behavior simulation, the response of the models describing the physical phenomena occurring during the irradiation in reactor is mainly conditioned by the confidence in the calculated temperature of the fuel. Amongst all parameters influencing the temperature calculation in our fuel rod simulation code (METEOR V2), several sources of uncertainty have been identified as being the most sensitive: thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2}, radial distribution of power in the fuel pellet, local linear heat rate in the fuel rod, geometry of the pellet and thermal transfer in the gap. Expert judgment and inverse methods have been used to model the uncertainty of these parameters using theoretical distributions and correlation matrices. Propagation of these uncertainties in the METEOR V2 code using the URANIE framework and a Monte-Carlo technique has been performed in different experimental irradiations of UO{sub 2} fuel. At every time step of the simulated experiments, we get a temperature statistical distribution which results from the initial distributions of the uncertain parameters. We then can estimate confidence intervals of the calculated temperature. In order to quantify the sensitivity of the calculated temperature to each of the uncertain input parameters and data, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis using the Sobol' indices at first order.
Biosphere dose conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
M. Wasiolek
2004-01-01
This report presents importance and sensitivity analysis for the environmental radiation model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN). ERMYN is a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis concerns the output of the model, biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater, and the volcanic ash exposure scenarios. It identifies important processes and parameters that influence the BDCF values and distributions, enhances understanding of the relative importance of the physical and environmental processes on the outcome of the biosphere model, includes a detailed pathway analysis for key radionuclides, and evaluates the appropriateness of selected parameter values that are not site-specific or have large uncertainty
Electrochemomechanical constrained multiobjective optimization of PPy/MWCNT actuators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khalili, N; Naguib, H E; Kwon, R H
2014-01-01
Polypyrrole (PPy) conducting polymers have shown a great potential for the fabrication of conjugated polymer-based actuating devices. Consequently, they have been a key point in developing many advanced emerging applications such as biomedical devices and biomimetic robotics. When designing an actuator, taking all of the related decision variables, their roles and relationships into consideration is of pivotal importance to determine the actuator’s final performance. Therefore, the central focus of this study is to develop an electrochemomechanical constrained multiobjective optimization model of a PPy/MWCNTs trilayer actuator. For this purpose, the objective functions are designed to capture the three main characteristics of these actuators, namely their tip vertical displacement, blocking force and response time. To obtain the optimum range of the designated decision variables within the feasible domain, a multiobjective optimization algorithm is applied while appropriate constraints are imposed. The optimum points form a Pareto surface on which they are consistently spread. The numerical results are presented; these results enable one to design an actuator with consideration to the desired output performances. For the experimental analysis, a multilayer bending-type actuator is fabricated, which is composed of a PVDF layer and two layers of PPy with an incorporated layer of multi-walled carbon nanotubes deposited on each side of the PVDF membrane. The numerical results are experimentally verified; in order to determine the performance of the fabricated actuator, its outputs are compared with a neat PPy actuator’s experimental and numerical counterparts. (paper)
A multi-objective approach to solid waste management.
Galante, Giacomo; Aiello, Giuseppe; Enea, Mario; Panascia, Enrico
2010-01-01
The issue addressed in this paper consists in the localization and dimensioning of transfer stations, which constitute a necessary intermediate level in the logistic chain of the solid waste stream, from municipalities to the incinerator. Contextually, the determination of the number and type of vehicles involved is carried out in an integrated optimization approach. The model considers both initial investment and operative costs related to transportation and transfer stations. Two conflicting objectives are evaluated, the minimization of total cost and the minimization of environmental impact, measured by pollution. The design of the integrated waste management system is hence approached in a multi-objective optimization framework. To determine the best means of compromise, goal programming, weighted sum and fuzzy multi-objective techniques have been employed. The proposed analysis highlights how different attitudes of the decision maker towards the logic and structure of the problem result in the employment of different methodologies and the obtaining of different results. The novel aspect of the paper lies in the proposal of an effective decision support system for operative waste management, rather than a further contribution to the transportation problem. The model was applied to the waste management of optimal territorial ambit (OTA) of Palermo (Italy). 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A multi-objective approach to solid waste management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Galante, Giacomo; Aiello, Giuseppe; Enea, Mario; Panascia, Enrico
2010-01-01
The issue addressed in this paper consists in the localization and dimensioning of transfer stations, which constitute a necessary intermediate level in the logistic chain of the solid waste stream, from municipalities to the incinerator. Contextually, the determination of the number and type of vehicles involved is carried out in an integrated optimization approach. The model considers both initial investment and operative costs related to transportation and transfer stations. Two conflicting objectives are evaluated, the minimization of total cost and the minimization of environmental impact, measured by pollution. The design of the integrated waste management system is hence approached in a multi-objective optimization framework. To determine the best means of compromise, goal programming, weighted sum and fuzzy multi-objective techniques have been employed. The proposed analysis highlights how different attitudes of the decision maker towards the logic and structure of the problem result in the employment of different methodologies and the obtaining of different results. The novel aspect of the paper lies in the proposal of an effective decision support system for operative waste management, rather than a further contribution to the transportation problem. The model was applied to the waste management of optimal territorial ambit (OTA) of Palermo (Italy).
Multipurpose Water Reservoir Management: An Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luís A. Scola
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The reservoirs that feed large hydropower plants should be managed in order to provide other uses for the water resources. Those uses include, for instance, flood control and avoidance, irrigation, navigability in the rivers, and other ones. This work presents an evolutionary multiobjective optimization approach for the study of multiple water usages in multiple interlinked reservoirs, including both power generation objectives and other objectives not related to energy generation. The classical evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II is employed as the basic multiobjective optimization machinery, being modified in order to cope with specific problem features. The case studies, which include the analysis of a problem which involves an objective of navigability on the river, are tailored in order to illustrate the usefulness of the data generated by the proposed methodology for decision-making on the problem of operation planning of multiple reservoirs with multiple usages. It is shown that it is even possible to use the generated data in order to determine the cost of any new usage of the water, in terms of the opportunity cost that can be measured on the revenues related to electric energy sales.
A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.
Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław
2018-01-01
In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.
Sensitivity Analysis of OECD Benchmark Tests in BISON
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gamble, Kyle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schmidt, Rodney C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Richard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
2015-09-01
This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on sensitivity analysis of a fuels performance benchmark problem. The benchmark problem was defined by the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling working group of the Nuclear Science Committee, part of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ). The benchmark problem involv ed steady - state behavior of a fuel pin in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The problem was created in the BISON Fuels Performance code. Dakota was used to generate and analyze 300 samples of 17 input parameters defining core boundary conditions, manuf acturing tolerances , and fuel properties. There were 24 responses of interest, including fuel centerline temperatures at a variety of locations and burnup levels, fission gas released, axial elongation of the fuel pin, etc. Pearson and Spearman correlatio n coefficients and Sobol' variance - based indices were used to perform the sensitivity analysis. This report summarizes the process and presents results from this study.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SALTSTONE DISPOSAL UNIT COLUMN DEGRADATION ANALYSES
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Flach, G.
2014-10-28
PORFLOW related analyses supporting a Sensitivity Analysis for Saltstone Disposal Unit (SDU) column degradation were performed. Previous analyses, Flach and Taylor 2014, used a model in which the SDU columns degraded in a piecewise manner from the top and bottom simultaneously. The current analyses employs a model in which all pieces of the column degrade at the same time. Information was extracted from the analyses which may be useful in determining the distribution of Tc-99 in the various SDUs throughout time and in determining flow balances for the SDUs.
Sensitivity analysis and design optimization through automatic differentiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hovland, Paul D; Norris, Boyana; Strout, Michelle Mills; Bhowmick, Sanjukta; Utke, Jean
2005-01-01
Automatic differentiation is a technique for transforming a program or subprogram that computes a function, including arbitrarily complex simulation codes, into one that computes the derivatives of that function. We describe the implementation and application of automatic differentiation tools. We highlight recent advances in the combinatorial algorithms and compiler technology that underlie successful implementation of automatic differentiation tools. We discuss applications of automatic differentiation in design optimization and sensitivity analysis. We also describe ongoing research in the design of language-independent source transformation infrastructures for automatic differentiation algorithms
Analysis of Hydrological Sensitivity for Flood Risk Assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sanjay Kumar Sharma
2018-02-01
Full Text Available In order for the Indian government to maximize Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM, the Brahmaputra River has played an important role in the undertaking of the Pilot Basin Study (PBS due to the Brahmaputra River’s annual regional flooding. The selected Kulsi River—a part of Brahmaputra sub-basin—experienced severe floods in 2007 and 2008. In this study, the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI hydrological model was used to simulate the recent historical flood in order to understand and improve the integrated flood risk management plan. The ultimate objective was to evaluate the sensitivity of hydrologic simulation using different Digital Elevation Model (DEM resources, coupled with DEM smoothing techniques, with a particular focus on the comparison of river discharge and flood inundation extent. As a result, the sensitivity analysis showed that, among the input parameters, the RRI model is highly sensitive to Manning’s roughness coefficient values for flood plains, followed by the source of the DEM, and then soil depth. After optimizing its parameters, the simulated inundation extent showed that the smoothing filter was more influential than its simulated discharge at the outlet. Finally, the calibrated and validated RRI model simulations agreed well with the observed discharge and the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-detected flood extents.
Sensitivity analysis for the effects of multiple unmeasured confounders.
Groenwold, Rolf H H; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lawlor, Debbie A; Moons, Karel G M; Hoes, Arno W; Tilling, Kate
2016-09-01
Observational studies are prone to (unmeasured) confounding. Sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding typically focuses on a single unmeasured confounder. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of multiple (possibly weak) unmeasured confounders. Simulation studies were performed based on parameters estimated from the British Women's Heart and Health Study, including 28 measured confounders and assuming no effect of ascorbic acid intake on mortality. In addition, 25, 50, or 100 unmeasured confounders were simulated, with various mutual correlations and correlations with measured confounders. The correlated unmeasured confounders did not need to be strongly associated with exposure and outcome to substantially bias the exposure-outcome association at interest, provided that there are sufficiently many unmeasured confounders. Correlations between unmeasured confounders, in addition to the strength of their relationship with exposure and outcome, are key drivers of the magnitude of unmeasured confounding and should be considered in sensitivity analyses. However, if the unmeasured confounders are correlated with measured confounders, the bias yielded by unmeasured confounders is partly removed through adjustment for the measured confounders. Discussions of the potential impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies, and sensitivity analyses to examine this, should focus on the potential for the joint effect of multiple unmeasured confounders to bias results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
High order effects in cross section sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Greenspan, E.; Karni, Y.; Gilai, D.
1978-01-01
Two types of high order effects associated with perturbations in the flux shape are considered: Spectral Fine Structure Effects (SFSE) and non-linearity between changes in performance parameters and data uncertainties. SFSE are investigated in Part I using a simple single resonance model. Results obtained for each of the resolved and for representative unresolved resonances of 238 U in a ZPR-6/7 like environment indicate that SFSE can have a significant contribution to the sensitivity of group constants to resonance parameters. Methods to account for SFSE both for the propagation of uncertainties and for the adjustment of nuclear data are discussed. A Second Order Sensitivity Theory (SOST) is presented, and its accuracy relative to that of the first order sensitivity theory and of the direct substitution method is investigated in Part II. The investigation is done for the non-linear problem of the effect of changes in the 297 keV sodium minimum cross section on the transport of neutrons in a deep-penetration problem. It is found that the SOST provides a satisfactory accuracy for cross section uncertainty analysis. For the same degree of accuracy, the SOST can be significantly more efficient than the direct substitution method
Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation
Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua
2018-04-01
There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.
A global sensitivity analysis of crop virtual water content
Tamea, S.; Tuninetti, M.; D'Odorico, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.
2015-12-01
The concepts of virtual water and water footprint are becoming widely used in the scientific literature and they are proving their usefulness in a number of multidisciplinary contexts. With such growing interest a measure of data reliability (and uncertainty) is becoming pressing but, as of today, assessments of data sensitivity to model parameters, performed at the global scale, are not known. This contribution aims at filling this gap. Starting point of this study is the evaluation of the green and blue virtual water content (VWC) of four staple crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize, and soybean) at a global high resolution scale. In each grid cell, the crop VWC is given by the ratio between the total crop evapotranspiration over the growing season and the crop actual yield, where evapotranspiration is determined with a detailed daily soil water balance and actual yield is estimated using country-based data, adjusted to account for spatial variability. The model provides estimates of the VWC at a 5x5 arc minutes and it improves on previous works by using the newest available data and including multi-cropping practices in the evaluation. The model is then used as the basis for a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate the role of model parameters in affecting the VWC and to understand how uncertainties in input data propagate and impact the VWC accounting. In each cell, small changes are exerted to one parameter at a time, and a sensitivity index is determined as the ratio between the relative change of VWC and the relative change of the input parameter with respect to its reference value. At the global scale, VWC is found to be most sensitive to the planting date, with a positive (direct) or negative (inverse) sensitivity index depending on the typical season of crop planting date. VWC is also markedly dependent on the length of the growing period, with an increase in length always producing an increase of VWC, but with higher spatial variability for rice than for
Multi-Objective Nonlinear Model Predictive Control: Lexicographic Method
Zheng, Tao; Wu, Gang; Liu, Guang-Hong; Ling, Qing
2010-01-01
In this chapter, to avoid the disadvantages of weight coefficients in multi-objective dynamic optimization, lexicographic (completely stratified) and partially stratified frameworks of multi-objective controller are proposed. The lexicographic framework is absolutely prioritydriven and the partially stratified framework is a modification of it, they both can solve the multi-objective control problem with the concept of priority for objectiveâ€™s relative importance, while the latter one is mo...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shao, Wei; Cui, Zheng; Cheng, Lin
2017-01-01
Highlights: • A multi-objective optimization model of air distributions of grate cooler by genetic algorithm is proposed. • Optimal air distributions of different conditions are obtained and validated by measurements. • The most economic average diameters of clinker particles is 0.02 m. • The most economic amount of air chambers is 9. - Abstract: The paper proposes a multi-objective optimization model of cooling air distributions of grate cooler in cement plant based on convective heat transfer principle and entropy generation minimization analysis. The heat transfer and flow models of clinker cooling process are brought out at first. Then the modified entropy generation numbers caused by heat transfer and viscous dissipation are considered as objective functions respectively which are optimized by genetic algorithm simultaneously. The design variables are superficial velocities of air chambers and thicknesses of clinker layer on different grate plates. The model is verified by a set of Pareto optimal solutions and scattered distributions of design variables. Sensitive analysis of average diameters of clinker particles and amount of air chambers are carried out based on the optimization model. The optimal cooling air distributions are compared by heat recovered, energy consumption of cooling fans and heat efficiency of grate cooler. And all of them are selected from the Pareto optimal solutions based on energy consumption of cooling fans minimization. The results show that the most effective and economic average diameter of clinker particles is 0.02 m and the amount of air chambers is 9.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guo Hong
2018-05-01
Full Text Available With the rapid development of technology, motors have drawn increasing attention in aviation applications, especially in the more electrical aircraft and all electrical aircraft concepts. Power weight ratio and reliability are key parameters for evaluating the performance of equipment applied in aircraft. The temperature rise of the motor is closely related to the reliability of the motor. Therefore, based on Taguchi, a novel multi-objective optimization method for the heat dissipation structural design of an electro-hydrostatic actuator (EHA drive motor was proposed in this paper. First, the thermal network model of the EHA drive motor was established. Second, a sensitivity analysis of the key parameters affecting the cooling performance of the motor was conducted, such as the thickness of fins, the height of fins, the space of fins, the potting materials and the slot fill factor. Third, taking the average temperature of the windings and the power weight ratio as the optimization goal, the multi-objective optimal design of the heat dissipation structure of the motor was carried out by applying Taguchi. Then, a 3-D finite element model of the motor was established and the steady state thermal analysis was carried out. Furthermore, a prototype of the optimal motor was manufactured, and the temperature rise under full load condition tested. The result indicated that the motor with the optimized heat dissipating structure presented a low temperature rise and high power weight ratio, therefore validating the proposed optimization method.
Alizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Rakhshandehroo, Gholam Reza
2017-08-01
Sustainable management of water resources necessitates close attention to social, economic and environmental aspects such as water quality and quantity concerns and potential conflicts. This study presents a new fuzzy-based multi-objective compromise methodology to determine the socio-optimal and sustainable policies for hydro-environmental management of groundwater resources, which simultaneously considers the conflicts and negotiation of involved stakeholders, uncertainties in decision makers' preferences, existing uncertainties in the groundwater parameters and groundwater quality and quantity issues. The fuzzy multi-objective simulation-optimization model is developed based on qualitative and quantitative groundwater simulation model (MODFLOW and MT3D), multi-objective optimization model (NSGA-II), Monte Carlo analysis and Fuzzy Transformation Method (FTM). Best compromise solutions (best management policies) on trade-off curves are determined using four different Fuzzy Social Choice (FSC) methods. Finally, a unanimity fallback bargaining method is utilized to suggest the most preferred FSC method. Kavar-Maharloo aquifer system in Fars, Iran, as a typical multi-stakeholder multi-objective real-world problem is considered to verify the proposed methodology. Results showed an effective performance of the framework for determining the most sustainable allocation policy in groundwater resource management.
Variance-based sensitivity analysis for wastewater treatment plant modelling.
Cosenza, Alida; Mannina, Giorgio; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Neumann, Marc B
2014-02-01
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a valuable tool to support the use of mathematical models that characterise technical or natural systems. In the field of wastewater modelling, most of the recent applications of GSA use either regression-based methods, which require close to linear relationships between the model outputs and model factors, or screening methods, which only yield qualitative results. However, due to the characteristics of membrane bioreactors (MBR) (non-linear kinetics, complexity, etc.) there is an interest to adequately quantify the effects of non-linearity and interactions. This can be achieved with variance-based sensitivity analysis methods. In this paper, the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (Extended-FAST) method is applied to an integrated activated sludge model (ASM2d) for an MBR system including microbial product formation and physical separation processes. Twenty-one model outputs located throughout the different sections of the bioreactor and 79 model factors are considered. Significant interactions among the model factors are found. Contrary to previous GSA studies for ASM models, we find the relationship between variables and factors to be non-linear and non-additive. By analysing the pattern of the variance decomposition along the plant, the model factors having the highest variance contributions were identified. This study demonstrates the usefulness of variance-based methods in membrane bioreactor modelling where, due to the presence of membranes and different operating conditions than those typically found in conventional activated sludge systems, several highly non-linear effects are present. Further, the obtained results highlight the relevant role played by the modelling approach for MBR taking into account simultaneously biological and physical processes. © 2013.
DDASAC, Double-Precision Differential or Algebraic Sensitivity Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Caracotsios, M.; Stewart, W.E.; Petzold, L.
1997-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: DDASAC solves nonlinear initial-value problems involving stiff implicit systems of ordinary differential and algebraic equations. Purely algebraic nonlinear systems can also be solved, given an initial guess within the region of attraction of a solution. Options include automatic reconciliation of inconsistent initial states and derivatives, automatic initial step selection, direct concurrent parametric sensitivity analysis, and stopping at a prescribed value of any user-defined functional of the current solution vector. Local error control (in the max-norm or the 2-norm) is provided for the state vector and can include the sensitivities on request. 2 - Method of solution: Reconciliation of initial conditions is done with a damped Newton algorithm adapted from Bain and Stewart (1991). Initial step selection is done by the first-order algorithm of Shampine (1987), extended here to differential-algebraic equation systems. The solution is continued with the DASSL predictor- corrector algorithm (Petzold 1983, Brenan et al. 1989) with the initial acceleration phase detected and with row scaling of the Jacobian added. The backward-difference formulas for the predictor and corrector are expressed in divide-difference form, and the fixed-leading-coefficient form of the corrector (Jackson and Sacks-Davis 1980, Brenan et al. 1989) is used. Weights for error tests are updated in each step with the user's tolerances at the predicted state. Sensitivity analysis is performed directly on the corrector equations as given by Catacotsios and Stewart (1985) and is extended here to the initialization when needed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: This algorithm, like DASSL, performs well on differential-algebraic systems of index 0 and 1 but not on higher-index systems; see Brenan et al. (1989). The user assigns the work array lengths and the output unit. The machine number range and precision are determined at run time by a
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental transport models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Margulies, T.S.; Lancaster, L.E.
1985-01-01
An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been made of the CRAC-2 (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) atmospheric transport and deposition models. Robustness and uncertainty aspects of air and ground deposited material and the relative contribution of input and model parameters were systematically studied. The underlying data structures were investigated using a multiway layout of factors over specified ranges generated via a Latin hypercube sampling scheme. The variables selected in our analysis include: weather bin, dry deposition velocity, rain washout coefficient/rain intensity, duration of release, heat content, sigma-z (vertical) plume dispersion parameter, sigma-y (crosswind) plume dispersion parameter, and mixing height. To determine the contributors to the output variability (versus distance from the site) step-wise regression analyses were performed on transformations of the spatial concentration patterns simulated. 27 references, 2 figures, 3 tables
Cross-covariance based global dynamic sensitivity analysis
Shi, Yan; Lu, Zhenzhou; Li, Zhao; Wu, Mengmeng
2018-02-01
For identifying the cross-covariance source of dynamic output at each time instant for structural system involving both input random variables and stochastic processes, a global dynamic sensitivity (GDS) technique is proposed. The GDS considers the effect of time history inputs on the dynamic output. In the GDS, the cross-covariance decomposition is firstly developed to measure the contribution of the inputs to the output at different time instant, and an integration of the cross-covariance change over the specific time interval is employed to measure the whole contribution of the input to the cross-covariance of output. Then, the GDS main effect indices and the GDS total effect indices can be easily defined after the integration, and they are effective in identifying the important inputs and the non-influential inputs on the cross-covariance of output at each time instant, respectively. The established GDS analysis model has the same form with the classical ANOVA when it degenerates to the static case. After degeneration, the first order partial effect can reflect the individual effects of inputs to the output variance, and the second order partial effect can reflect the interaction effects to the output variance, which illustrates the consistency of the proposed GDS indices and the classical variance-based sensitivity indices. The MCS procedure and the Kriging surrogate method are developed to solve the proposed GDS indices. Several examples are introduced to illustrate the significance of the proposed GDS analysis technique and the effectiveness of the proposed solution.
Complex finite element sensitivity method for creep analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gomez-Farias, Armando; Montoya, Arturo; Millwater, Harry
2015-01-01
The complex finite element method (ZFEM) has been extended to perform sensitivity analysis for mechanical and structural systems undergoing creep deformation. ZFEM uses a complex finite element formulation to provide shape, material, and loading derivatives of the system response, providing an insight into the essential factors which control the behavior of the system as a function of time. A complex variable-based quadrilateral user element (UEL) subroutine implementing the power law creep constitutive formulation was incorporated within the Abaqus commercial finite element software. The results of the complex finite element computations were verified by comparing them to the reference solution for the steady-state creep problem of a thick-walled cylinder in the power law creep range. A practical application of the ZFEM implementation to creep deformation analysis is the calculation of the skeletal point of a notched bar test from a single ZFEM run. In contrast, the standard finite element procedure requires multiple runs. The value of the skeletal point is that it identifies the location where the stress state is accurate, regardless of the certainty of the creep material properties. - Highlights: • A novel finite element sensitivity method (ZFEM) for creep was introduced. • ZFEM has the capability to calculate accurate partial derivatives. • ZFEM can be used for identification of the skeletal point of creep structures. • ZFEM can be easily implemented in a commercial software, e.g. Abaqus. • ZFEM results were shown to be in excellent agreement with analytical solutions
Overview of hybrid subspace methods for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Bang, Youngsuk; Wang, Congjian
2013-01-01
Highlights: ► We overview the state-of-the-art in uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. ► We overview new developments in above areas using hybrid methods. ► We give a tutorial introduction to above areas and the new developments. ► Hybrid methods address the explosion in dimensionality in nonlinear models. ► Representative numerical experiments are given. -- Abstract: The role of modeling and simulation has been heavily promoted in recent years to improve understanding of complex engineering systems. To realize the benefits of modeling and simulation, concerted efforts in the areas of uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are required. The manuscript intends to serve as a pedagogical presentation of the material to young researchers and practitioners with little background on the subjects. We believe this is important as the role of these subjects is expected to be integral to the design, safety, and operation of existing as well as next generation reactors. In addition to covering the basics, an overview of the current state-of-the-art will be given with particular emphasis on the challenges pertaining to nuclear reactor modeling. The second objective will focus on presenting our own development of hybrid subspace methods intended to address the explosion in the computational overhead required when handling real-world complex engineering systems.
Control strategies and sensitivity analysis of anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis model.
Zamir, Muhammad; Zaman, Gul; Alshomrani, Ali Saleh
2017-12-01
This study proposes a mathematical model of Anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis epidemic with saturated infection rate and recommends different control strategies to manage the spread of this disease in the community. To do this, first, a model formulation is presented to support these strategies, with quantifications of transmission and intervention parameters. To understand the nature of the initial transmission of the disease, the reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained by using the next-generation method. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number [Formula: see text], four different control strategies are proposed for managing disease transmission. For quantification of the prevalence period of the disease, a numerical simulation for each strategy is performed and a detailed summary is presented. Disease-free state is obtained with the help of control strategies. The threshold condition for globally asymptotic stability of the disease-free state is found, and it is ascertained that the state is globally stable. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number, it is shown that the disease can be eradicated by using the proposed strategies.
Sensitivity Analysis in Observational Research: Introducing the E-Value.
VanderWeele, Tyler J; Ding, Peng
2017-08-15
Sensitivity analysis is useful in assessing how robust an association is to potential unmeasured or uncontrolled confounding. This article introduces a new measure called the "E-value," which is related to the evidence for causality in observational studies that are potentially subject to confounding. The E-value is defined as the minimum strength of association, on the risk ratio scale, that an unmeasured confounder would need to have with both the treatment and the outcome to fully explain away a specific treatment-outcome association, conditional on the measured covariates. A large E-value implies that considerable unmeasured confounding would be needed to explain away an effect estimate. A small E-value implies little unmeasured confounding would be needed to explain away an effect estimate. The authors propose that in all observational studies intended to produce evidence for causality, the E-value be reported or some other sensitivity analysis be used. They suggest calculating the E-value for both the observed association estimate (after adjustments for measured confounders) and the limit of the confidence interval closest to the null. If this were to become standard practice, the ability of the scientific community to assess evidence from observational studies would improve considerably, and ultimately, science would be strengthened.
Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirschberg, S.; Jacobsson, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Porn, K.
1989-01-01
This paper provides a review of the first phase of Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The main objective of this study is to use experiences form previous Nordic Benchmark Exercises and reference studies concerning critical modeling issues such as common cause failures and human interactions, and to demonstrate the impact of associated uncertainties on the uncertainty of the investigated accident sequence. This has been done independently by three working groups which used different approaches to modeling and to uncertainty analysis. The estimated uncertainty interval for the analyzed accident sequence is large. Also the discrepancies between the groups are substantial but can be explained. Sensitivity analyses which have been carried out concern e.g. use of different CCF-quantification models, alternative handling of CCF-data, time windows for operator actions and time dependences in phase mission operation, impact of state-of-knowledge dependences and ranking of dominating uncertainty contributors. Specific findings with respect to these issues are summarized in the paper
Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion Guidance Navigation and Control
Pressburger, Tom; Hoelscher, Brian; Martin, Rodney; Sricharan, Kumar
2013-01-01
The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch. We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool ("Critical Factors Tool" or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.
Deterministic sensitivity analysis for the numerical simulation of contaminants transport
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marchand, E.
2007-12-01
The questions of safety and uncertainty are central to feasibility studies for an underground nuclear waste storage site, in particular the evaluation of uncertainties about safety indicators which are due to uncertainties concerning properties of the subsoil or of the contaminants. The global approach through probabilistic Monte Carlo methods gives good results, but it requires a large number of simulations. The deterministic method investigated here is complementary. Based on the Singular Value Decomposition of the derivative of the model, it gives only local information, but it is much less demanding in computing time. The flow model follows Darcy's law and the transport of radionuclides around the storage site follows a linear convection-diffusion equation. Manual and automatic differentiation are compared for these models using direct and adjoint modes. A comparative study of both probabilistic and deterministic approaches for the sensitivity analysis of fluxes of contaminants through outlet channels with respect to variations of input parameters is carried out with realistic data provided by ANDRA. Generic tools for sensitivity analysis and code coupling are developed in the Caml language. The user of these generic platforms has only to provide the specific part of the application in any language of his choice. We also present a study about two-phase air/water partially saturated flows in hydrogeology concerning the limitations of the Richards approximation and of the global pressure formulation used in petroleum engineering. (author)
Sensitivity Analysis of a Riparian Vegetation Growth Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Nones
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of two main parameters used in a mathematic model able to evaluate the effects of changing hydrology on the growth of riparian vegetation along rivers and its effects on the cross-section width. Due to a lack of data in existing literature, in a past study the schematization proposed here was applied only to two large rivers, assuming steady conditions for the vegetational carrying capacity and coupling the vegetal model with a 1D description of the river morphology. In this paper, the limitation set by steady conditions is overcome, imposing the vegetational evolution dependent upon the initial plant population and the growth rate, which represents the potential growth of the overall vegetation along the watercourse. The sensitivity analysis shows that, regardless of the initial population density, the growth rate can be considered the main parameter defining the development of riparian vegetation, but it results site-specific effects, with significant differences for large and small rivers. Despite the numerous simplifications adopted and the small database analyzed, the comparison between measured and computed river widths shows a quite good capability of the model in representing the typical interactions between riparian vegetation and water flow occurring along watercourses. After a thorough calibration, the relatively simple structure of the code permits further developments and applications to a wide range of alluvial rivers.
Sensitivity analysis of numerical model of prestressed concrete containment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bílý, Petr, E-mail: petr.bily@fsv.cvut.cz; Kohoutková, Alena, E-mail: akohout@fsv.cvut.cz
2015-12-15
Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • FEM model of prestressed concrete containment with steel liner was created. • Sensitivity analysis of changes in geometry and loads was conducted. • Steel liner and temperature effects are the most important factors. • Creep and shrinkage parameters are essential for the long time analysis. • Prestressing schedule is a key factor in the early stages. - Abstract: Safety is always the main consideration in the design of containment of nuclear power plant. However, efficiency of the design process should be also taken into consideration. Despite the advances in computational abilities in recent years, simplified analyses may be found useful for preliminary scoping or trade studies. In the paper, a study on sensitivity of finite element model of prestressed concrete containment to changes in geometry, loads and other factors is presented. Importance of steel liner, reinforcement, prestressing process, temperature changes, nonlinearity of materials as well as density of finite elements mesh is assessed in the main stages of life cycle of the containment. Although the modeling adjustments have not produced any significant changes in computation time, it was found that in some cases simplified modeling process can lead to significant reduction of work time without degradation of the results.
Procedures for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in repository performance assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Poern, K.; Aakerlund, O.
1985-10-01
The objective of the project was mainly a literature study of available methods for the treatment of parameter uncertainty propagation and sensitivity aspects in complete models such as those concerning geologic disposal of radioactive waste. The study, which has run parallel with the development of a code package (PROPER) for computer assisted analysis of function, also aims at the choice of accurate, cost-affective methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Such a choice depends on several factors like the number of input parameters, the capacity of the model and the computer reresources required to use the model. Two basic approaches are addressed in the report. In one of these the model of interest is directly simulated by an efficient sampling technique to generate an output distribution. Applying the other basic method the model is replaced by an approximating analytical response surface, which is then used in the sampling phase or in moment matching to generate the output distribution. Both approaches are illustrated by simple examples in the report. (author)
Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.
2011-01-01
The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)
Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis of Time-of-Flight Sensor Fusion
Schwarz, Sebastian; Sjöström, Mårten; Olsson, Roger
2014-09-01
Obtaining three-dimensional scenery data is an essential task in computer vision, with diverse applications in various areas such as manufacturing and quality control, security and surveillance, or user interaction and entertainment. Dedicated Time-of-Flight sensors can provide detailed scenery depth in real-time and overcome short-comings of traditional stereo analysis. Nonetheless, they do not provide texture information and have limited spatial resolution. Therefore such sensors are typically combined with high resolution video sensors. Time-of-Flight Sensor Fusion is a highly active field of research. Over the recent years, there have been multiple proposals addressing important topics such as texture-guided depth upsampling and depth data denoising. In this article we take a step back and look at the underlying principles of ToF sensor fusion. We derive the ToF sensor fusion error model and evaluate its sensitivity to inaccuracies in camera calibration and depth measurements. In accordance with our findings, we propose certain courses of action to ensure high quality fusion results. With this multivariate sensitivity analysis of the ToF sensor fusion model, we provide an important guideline for designing, calibrating and running a sophisticated Time-of-Flight sensor fusion capture systems.
Hydrocoin level 3 - Testing methods for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grundfelt, B.; Lindbom, B.; Larsson, A.; Andersson, K.
1991-01-01
The HYDROCOIN study is an international cooperative project for testing groundwater hydrology modelling strategies for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The study was initiated in 1984 by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the technical work was finalised in 1987. The participating organisations are regulatory authorities as well as implementing organisations in 10 countries. The study has been performed at three levels aimed at studying computer code verification, model validation and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis respectively. The results from the first two levels, code verification and model validation, have been published in reports in 1988 and 1990 respectively. This paper focuses on some aspects of the results from Level 3, sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, for which a final report is planned to be published during 1990. For Level 3, seven test cases were defined. Some of these aimed at exploring the uncertainty associated with the modelling results by simply varying parameter values and conceptual assumptions. In other test cases statistical sampling methods were applied. One of the test cases dealt with particle tracking and the uncertainty introduced by this type of post processing. The amount of results available is substantial although unevenly spread over the test cases. It has not been possible to cover all aspects of the results in this paper. Instead, the different methods applied will be illustrated by some typical analyses. 4 figs., 9 refs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Long, Rui; Li, Baode; Liu, Zhichun; Liu, Wei
2015-01-01
An optimization analysis of a continuous TREC (thermally regenerative electrochemical cycle) was conducted with maximum power output and exergy efficiency as the objective functions simultaneously. For comparison, the power output, exergy efficiency, and thermal efficiency under the corresponding single-objective optimization schematics were also calculated. Under different optimization methods it was observed that the power output and the thermal efficiency increase with increasing inlet temperature of the heat source, whereas the exergy efficiency increases with increasing inlet temperature, reaches a maximum value, and then decreases. Results revealed that the optimal power output under the multi-objective optimization turned out to be slightly less than that obtained under the single-objective optimization for power output. However, the exergy and thermal efficiencies were much greater. Furthermore, the thermal exergy and exergy efficiency by single-objective optimization for energy efficiency shows no dominant advantage than that obtained under multi-objective optimization, comparing with the increase amplitude of the power output. This suggests that the multi-objective optimization could coordinate well both the power output and the exergy efficiency of the TREC system, and may serve as a more promising guide for operating and designing TREC systems. - Highlights: • An optimal analysis of a continuous TREC is conducted based on multi-objective optimization. • Performance under corresponding single-objective optimizations has also been calculated and compared. • Power under multi-objective optimization is slightly less than the maximum power. • Exergy and thermal efficiencies are much larger than that under the single-objective optimization.
Thermodynamics-based Metabolite Sensitivity Analysis in metabolic networks.
Kiparissides, A; Hatzimanikatis, V
2017-01-01
The increasing availability of large metabolomics datasets enhances the need for computational methodologies that can organize the data in a way that can lead to the inference of meaningful relationships. Knowledge of the metabolic state of a cell and how it responds to various stimuli and extracellular conditions can offer significant insight in the regulatory functions and how to manipulate them. Constraint based methods, such as Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) and Thermodynamics-based flux analysis (TFA), are commonly used to estimate the flow of metabolites through genome-wide metabolic networks, making it possible to identify the ranges of flux values that are consistent with the studied physiological and thermodynamic conditions. However, unless key intracellular fluxes and metabolite concentrations are known, constraint-based models lead to underdetermined problem formulations. This lack of information propagates as uncertainty in the estimation of fluxes and basic reaction properties such as the determination of reaction directionalities. Therefore, knowledge of which metabolites, if measured, would contribute the most to reducing this uncertainty can significantly improve our ability to define the internal state of the cell. In the present work we combine constraint based modeling, Design of Experiments (DoE) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) into the Thermodynamics-based Metabolite Sensitivity Analysis (TMSA) method. TMSA ranks metabolites comprising a metabolic network based on their ability to constrain the gamut of possible solutions to a limited, thermodynamically consistent set of internal states. TMSA is modular and can be applied to a single reaction, a metabolic pathway or an entire metabolic network. This is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to use metabolic modeling in order to provide a significance ranking of metabolites to guide experimental measurements. Copyright © 2016 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier
Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm applied to dengue control.
Florentino, Helenice O; Cantane, Daniela R; Santos, Fernando L P; Bannwart, Bettina F
2014-12-01
Dengue fever is an infectious disease caused by a virus of the Flaviridae family and transmitted to the person by a mosquito of the genus Aedes aegypti. This disease has been a global public health problem because a single mosquito can infect up to 300 people and between 50 and 100 million people are infected annually on all continents. Thus, dengue fever is currently a subject of research, whether in the search for vaccines and treatments for the disease or efficient and economical forms of mosquito control. The current study aims to study techniques of multiobjective optimization to assist in solving problems involving the control of the mosquito that transmits dengue fever. The population dynamics of the mosquito is studied in order to understand the epidemic phenomenon and suggest strategies of multiobjective programming for mosquito control. A Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm (MGA_DENGUE) is proposed to solve the optimization model treated here and we discuss the computational results obtained from the application of this technique. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Multiobjective Multifactorial Optimization in Evolutionary Multitasking.
Gupta, Abhishek; Ong, Yew-Soon; Feng, Liang; Tan, Kay Chen
2016-05-03
In recent decades, the field of multiobjective optimization has attracted considerable interest among evolutionary computation researchers. One of the main features that makes evolutionary methods particularly appealing for multiobjective problems is the implicit parallelism offered by a population, which enables simultaneous convergence toward the entire Pareto front. While a plethora of related algorithms have been proposed till date, a common attribute among them is that they focus on efficiently solving only a single optimization problem at a time. Despite the known power of implicit parallelism, seldom has an attempt been made to multitask, i.e., to solve multiple optimization problems simultaneously. It is contended that the notion of evolutionary multitasking leads to the possibility of automated transfer of information across different optimization exercises that may share underlying similarities, thereby facilitating improved convergence characteristics. In particular, the potential for automated transfer is deemed invaluable from the standpoint of engineering design exercises where manual knowledge adaptation and reuse are routine. Accordingly, in this paper, we present a realization of the evolutionary multitasking paradigm within the domain of multiobjective optimization. The efficacy of the associated evolutionary algorithm is demonstrated on some benchmark test functions as well as on a real-world manufacturing process design problem from the composites industry.
Sensitivity analysis for modules for various biosphere types
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, U.; Rosen, K.
2000-09-01
This study presents the results of a sensitivity analysis for the modules developed earlier for calculation of ecosystem specific dose conversion factors (EDFs). The report also includes a comparison between the probabilistically calculated mean values of the EDFs and values gained in deterministic calculations. An overview of the distribution of radionuclides between different environmental parts in the models is also presented. The radionuclides included in the study were 36 Cl, 59 Ni, 93 Mo, 129 I, 135 Cs, 237 Np and 239 Pu, sel to represent various behaviour in the biosphere and some are of particular importance from the dose point of view. The deterministic and probabilistic EDFs showed a good agreement, for most nuclides and modules. Exceptions from this occurred if very skew distributions were used for parameters of importance for the results. Only a minor amount of the released radionuclides were present in the model compartments for all modules, except for the agricultural land module. The differences between the radionuclides were not pronounced which indicates that nuclide specific parameters were of minor importance for the retention of radionuclides for the simulated time period of 10 000 years in those modules. The results from the agricultural land module showed a different pattern. Large amounts of the radionuclides were present in the solid fraction of the saturated soil zone. The high retention within this compartment makes the zone a potential source for future exposure. Differences between the nuclides due to element specific Kd-values could be seen. The amount of radionuclides present in the upper soil layer, which is the most critical zone for exposure to humans, was less then 1% for all studied radionuclides. The sensitivity analysis showed that the physical/chemical parameters were the most important in most modules in contrast to the dominance of biological parameters in the uncertainty analysis. The only exception was the well module where
Sensitivity analysis of the terrestrial food chain model FOOD III
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zach, Reto.
1980-10-01
As a first step in constructing a terrestrial food chain model suitable for long-term waste management situations, a numerical sensitivity analysis of FOOD III was carried out to identify important model parameters. The analysis involved 42 radionuclides, four pathways, 14 food types, 93 parameters and three percentages of parameter variation. We also investigated the importance of radionuclides, pathways and food types. The analysis involved a simple contamination model to render results from individual pathways comparable. The analysis showed that radionuclides vary greatly in their dose contribution to each of the four pathways, but relative contributions to each pathway are very similar. Man's and animals' drinking water pathways are much more important than the leaf and root pathways. However, this result depends on the contamination model used. All the pathways contain unimportant food types. Considering the number of parameters involved, FOOD III has too many different food types. Many of the parameters of the leaf and root pathway are important. However, this is true for only a few of the parameters of animals' drinking water pathway, and for neither of the two parameters of mans' drinking water pathway. The radiological decay constant increases the variability of these results. The dose factor is consistently the most important variable, and it explains most of the variability of radionuclide doses within pathways. Consideration of the variability of dose factors is important in contemporary as well as long-term waste management assessment models, if realistic estimates are to be made. (auth)
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in nuclear accident consequence assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Karlberg, Olof.
1989-01-01
This report contains the results of a four year project in research contracts with the Nordic Cooperation in Nuclear Safety and the National Institute for Radiation Protection. An uncertainty/sensitivity analysis methodology consisting of Latin Hypercube sampling and regression analysis was applied to an accident consequence model. A number of input parameters were selected and the uncertainties related to these parameter were estimated within a Nordic group of experts. Individual doses, collective dose, health effects and their related uncertainties were then calculated for three release scenarios and for a representative sample of meteorological situations. From two of the scenarios the acute phase after an accident were simulated and from one the long time consequences. The most significant parameters were identified. The outer limits of the calculated uncertainty distributions are large and will grow to several order of magnitudes for the low probability consequences. The uncertainty in the expectation values are typical a factor 2-5 (1 Sigma). The variation in the model responses due to the variation of the weather parameters is fairly equal to the parameter uncertainty induced variation. The most important parameters showed out to be different for each pathway of exposure, which could be expected. However, the overall most important parameters are the wet deposition coefficient and the shielding factors. A general discussion of the usefulness of uncertainty analysis in consequence analysis is also given. (au)
Robust and sensitive analysis of mouse knockout phenotypes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Natasha A Karp
Full Text Available A significant challenge of in-vivo studies is the identification of phenotypes with a method that is robust and reliable. The challenge arises from practical issues that lead to experimental designs which are not ideal. Breeding issues, particularly in the presence of fertility or fecundity problems, frequently lead to data being collected in multiple batches. This problem is acute in high throughput phenotyping programs. In addition, in a high throughput environment operational issues lead to controls not being measured on the same day as knockouts. We highlight how application of traditional methods, such as a Student's t-Test or a 2-way ANOVA, in these situations give flawed results and should not be used. We explore the use of mixed models using worked examples from Sanger Mouse Genome Project focusing on Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry data for the analysis of mouse knockout data and compare to a reference range approach. We show that mixed model analysis is more sensitive and less prone to artefacts allowing the discovery of subtle quantitative phenotypes essential for correlating a gene's function to human disease. We demonstrate how a mixed model approach has the additional advantage of being able to include covariates, such as body weight, to separate effect of genotype from these covariates. This is a particular issue in knockout studies, where body weight is a common phenotype and will enhance the precision of assigning phenotypes and the subsequent selection of lines for secondary phenotyping. The use of mixed models with in-vivo studies has value not only in improving the quality and sensitivity of the data analysis but also ethically as a method suitable for small batches which reduces the breeding burden of a colony. This will reduce the use of animals, increase throughput, and decrease cost whilst improving the quality and depth of knowledge gained.
Coupled Low-thrust Trajectory and System Optimization via Multi-Objective Hybrid Optimal Control
Vavrina, Matthew A.; Englander, Jacob Aldo; Ghosh, Alexander R.
2015-01-01
The optimization of low-thrust trajectories is tightly coupled with the spacecraft hardware. Trading trajectory characteristics with system parameters ton identify viable solutions and determine mission sensitivities across discrete hardware configurations is labor intensive. Local independent optimization runs can sample the design space, but a global exploration that resolves the relationships between the system variables across multiple objectives enables a full mapping of the optimal solution space. A multi-objective, hybrid optimal control algorithm is formulated using a multi-objective genetic algorithm as an outer loop systems optimizer around a global trajectory optimizer. The coupled problem is solved simultaneously to generate Pareto-optimal solutions in a single execution. The automated approach is demonstrated on two boulder return missions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.
1985-01-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiuping Xu
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to deal with a minimum cost network flow problem (MCNFP in a large-scale construction project using a nonlinear multiobjective bilevel model with birandom variables. The main target of the upper level is to minimize both direct and transportation time costs. The target of the lower level is to minimize transportation costs. After an analysis of the birandom variables, an expectation multiobjective bilevel programming model with chance constraints is formulated to incorporate decision makers’ preferences. To solve the identified special conditions, an equivalent crisp model is proposed with an additional multiobjective bilevel particle swarm optimization (MOBLPSO developed to solve the model. The Shuibuya Hydropower Project is used as a real-world example to verify the proposed approach. Results and analysis are presented to highlight the performances of the MOBLPSO, which is very effective and efficient compared to a genetic algorithm and a simulated annealing algorithm.
Sensitivity Analysis Of Financing Demand In Syariah Banking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
DR. HJ. ROSYETTI
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the Sensitivity of Demand Financing in syariah banking with a focus on the elasticity of financing demand income elasticity and cross elasticity. The type of data used in this study is secondary data quantitative and time series obtained from the publication of BPS BI and OJK. The data analysis technique begins by estimating multiple linear regression equations using the Eviews Application further measuring the sensitivity using elasticity. The research variables consist of revenue gross domestic product and conventional bank interest rate as independent variables and demand for financing as a dependent variable. The results obtained for the results gross domestic product and interest rate of conventional banks simultaneously affect the demand for financing in Islamic banking with a significant level of 5 obtained probability value F statistic amp945 005. Partially revenue share and gross domestic product have a significant effect on demand for financing. While the variable interest rate of conventional banks partially does not have a significant effect on demand for financing in Islamic banking. The ability of the three independent variables to explain the dependent variable of 99.06 the rest of 0.04 influenced by other factors outside this study. The sensitive value of demand for financing in syariah banking during the observation period was 3.94 amp400P 1 so that it can be said that demand for financing in syariah banking is elastic. The elasticity of income demand for financing in syariah banking during the observation period of 3.08 amp400I 1 is categorized as luxuries goods. The cross elasticity value of financing demand in syariah banking during the observation period is 0.52 or positive amp400C 0 it can be categorized that the interest rate of a conventional bank is a substitute of profit sharing.
MPATHav: A software prototype for multiobjective routing in transportation risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ganter, J.H.; Smith, J.D.
1995-01-01
Most routing problems depend on several important variables: transport distance, population exposure, accident rate, mandated roads (e.g., HM-164 regulations), and proximity to emergency response resources are typical. These variables may need to be minimized or maximized, and often are weighted. 'Objectives' to be satisfied by the analysis are thus created. The resulting problems can be approached by combining spatial analysis techniques from geographic information systems (GIS) with multiobjective analysis techniques from the field of operations research (OR); we call this hybrid multiobjective spatial analysis' (MOSA). MOSA can be used to discover, display, and compare a range of solutions that satisfy a set of objectives to varying degrees. For instance, a suite of solutions may include: one solution that provides short transport distances, but at a cost of high exposure; another solution that provides low exposure, but long distances; and a range of solutions between these two extremes
MPATHav: A software prototype for multiobjective routing in transportation risk assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ganter, J.H.; Smith, J.D.
1995-12-31
Most routing problems depend on several important variables: transport distance, population exposure, accident rate, mandated roads (e.g., HM-164 regulations), and proximity to emergency response resources are typical. These variables may need to be minimized or maximized, and often are weighted. `Objectives` to be satisfied by the analysis are thus created. The resulting problems can be approached by combining spatial analysis techniques from geographic information systems (GIS) with multiobjective analysis techniques from the field of operations research (OR); we call this hybrid multiobjective spatial analysis` (MOSA). MOSA can be used to discover, display, and compare a range of solutions that satisfy a set of objectives to varying degrees. For instance, a suite of solutions may include: one solution that provides short transport distances, but at a cost of high exposure; another solution that provides low exposure, but long distances; and a range of solutions between these two extremes.
Simplified procedures for fast reactor fuel cycle and sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Badruzzaman, A.
1979-01-01
The Continuous Slowing Down-Integral Transport Theory has been extended to perform criticality calculations in a Fast Reactor Core-blanket system achieving excellent prediction of the spectrum and the eigenvalue. The integral transport parameters did not need recalculation with source iteration and were found to be relatively constant with exposure. Fuel cycle parameters were accurately predicted when these were not varied, thus reducing a principal potential penalty of the Intergal Transport approach where considerable effort may be required to calculate transport parameters in more complicated geometries. The small variation of the spectrum in the central core region, and its weak dependence on exposure for both this region, the core blanket interface and blanket region led to the extension and development of inexpensive simplified procedures to complement exact methods. These procedures gave accurate predictions of the key fuel cycle parameters such as cost and their sensitivity to variation in spectrum-averaged and multigroup cross sections. They also predicted the implications of design variation on these parameters very well. The accuracy of these procedures and their use in analyzing a wide variety of sensitivities demonstrate the potential utility of survey calculations in Fast Reactor analysis and fuel management
Relative sensitivity analysis of the predictive properties of sloppy models.
Myasnikova, Ekaterina; Spirov, Alexander
2018-01-25
Commonly among the model parameters characterizing complex biological systems are those that do not significantly influence the quality of the fit to experimental data, so-called "sloppy" parameters. The sloppiness can be mathematically expressed through saturating response functions (Hill's, sigmoid) thereby embodying biological mechanisms responsible for the system robustness to external perturbations. However, if a sloppy model is used for the prediction of the system behavior at the altered input (e.g. knock out mutations, natural expression variability), it may demonstrate the poor predictive power due to the ambiguity in the parameter estimates. We introduce a method of the predictive power evaluation under the parameter estimation uncertainty, Relative Sensitivity Analysis. The prediction problem is addressed in the context of gene circuit models describing the dynamics of segmentation gene expression in Drosophila embryo. Gene regulation in these models is introduced by a saturating sigmoid function of the concentrations of the regulatory gene products. We show how our approach can be applied to characterize the essential difference between the sensitivity properties of robust and non-robust solutions and select among the existing solutions those providing the correct system behavior at any reasonable input. In general, the method allows to uncover the sources of incorrect predictions and proposes the way to overcome the estimation uncertainties.
Sensitivity analysis of energy demands on performance of CCHP system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, C.Z.; Shi, Y.M.; Huang, X.H.
2008-01-01
Sensitivity analysis of energy demands is carried out in this paper to study their influence on performance of CCHP system. Energy demand is a very important and complex factor in the optimization model of CCHP system. Average, uncertainty and historical peaks are adopted to describe energy demands. The mix-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) which can reflect the three aspects of energy demands is established. Numerical studies are carried out based on energy demands of a hotel and a hospital. The influence of average, uncertainty and peaks of energy demands on optimal facility scheme and economic advantages of CCHP system are investigated. The optimization results show that the optimal GT's capacity and economy of CCHP system mainly lie on the average energy demands. Sum of capacities of GB and HE is equal to historical heating demand peaks, and sum of capacities of AR and ER are equal to historical cooling demand peaks. Maximum of PG is sensitive with historical peaks of energy demands and not influenced by uncertainty of energy demands, while the corresponding influence on DH is adverse
Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad
2015-12-08
Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.
A Sensitivity Analysis Approach to Identify Key Environmental Performance Factors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xi Yu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Life cycle assessment (LCA is widely used in design phase to reduce the product’s environmental impacts through the whole product life cycle (PLC during the last two decades. The traditional LCA is restricted to assessing the environmental impacts of a product and the results cannot reflect the effects of changes within the life cycle. In order to improve the quality of ecodesign, it is a growing need to develop an approach which can reflect the changes between the design parameters and product’s environmental impacts. A sensitivity analysis approach based on LCA and ecodesign is proposed in this paper. The key environmental performance factors which have significant influence on the products’ environmental impacts can be identified by analyzing the relationship between environmental impacts and the design parameters. Users without much environmental knowledge can use this approach to determine which design parameter should be first considered when (redesigning a product. A printed circuit board (PCB case study is conducted; eight design parameters are chosen to be analyzed by our approach. The result shows that the carbon dioxide emission during the PCB manufacture is highly sensitive to the area of PCB panel.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schulze-Riegert, R.; Krosche, M.; Stekolschikov, K. [Scandpower Petroleum Technology GmbH, Hamburg (Germany); Fahimuddin, A. [Technische Univ. Braunschweig (Germany)
2007-09-13
History Matching in Reservoir Simulation, well location and production optimization etc. is generally a multi-objective optimization problem. The problem statement of history matching for a realistic field case includes many field and well measurements in time and type, e.g. pressure measurements, fluid rates, events such as water and gas break-throughs, etc. Uncertainty parameters modified as part of the history matching process have varying impact on the improvement of the match criteria. Competing match criteria often reduce the likelihood of finding an acceptable history match. It is an engineering challenge in manual history matching processes to identify competing objectives and to implement the changes required in the simulation model. In production optimization or scenario optimization the focus on one key optimization criterion such as NPV limits the identification of alternatives and potential opportunities, since multiple objectives are summarized in a predefined global objective formulation. Previous works primarily focus on a specific optimization method. Few works actually concentrate on the objective formulation and multi-objective optimization schemes have not yet been applied to reservoir simulations. This paper presents a multi-objective optimization approach applicable to reservoir simulation. It addresses the problem of multi-objective criteria in a history matching study and presents analysis techniques identifying competing match criteria. A Pareto-Optimizer is discussed and the implementation of that multi-objective optimization scheme is applied to a case study. Results are compared to a single-objective optimization method. (orig.)
Sensitivity Study on Analysis of Reactor Containment Response to LOCA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chung, Ku Young; Sung, Key Yong
2010-01-01
As a reactor containment vessel is the final barrier to the release of radioactive material during design basis accidents (DBAs), its structural integrity must be maintained by withstanding the high pressure conditions resulting from DBAs. To verify the structural integrity of the containment, response analyses are performed to get the pressure transient inside the containment after DBAs, including loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs). The purpose of this study is to give regulative insights into the importance of input variables in the analysis of containment responses to a large break LOCA (LBLOCA). For the sensitivity study, a LBLOCA in Kori 3 and 4 nuclear power plant (NPP) is analyzed by CONTEMPT-LT computer code
Sensitivity Study on Analysis of Reactor Containment Response to LOCA
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chung, Ku Young; Sung, Key Yong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2010-10-15
As a reactor containment vessel is the final barrier to the release of radioactive material during design basis accidents (DBAs), its structural integrity must be maintained by withstanding the high pressure conditions resulting from DBAs. To verify the structural integrity of the containment, response analyses are performed to get the pressure transient inside the containment after DBAs, including loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs). The purpose of this study is to give regulative insights into the importance of input variables in the analysis of containment responses to a large break LOCA (LBLOCA). For the sensitivity study, a LBLOCA in Kori 3 and 4 nuclear power plant (NPP) is analyzed by CONTEMPT-LT computer code
Emissivity compensated spectral pyrometry—algorithm and sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hagqvist, Petter; Sikström, Fredrik; Christiansson, Anna-Karin; Lennartson, Bengt
2014-01-01
In order to solve the problem of non-contact temperature measurements on an object with varying emissivity, a new method is herein described and evaluated. The method uses spectral radiance measurements and converts them to temperature readings. It proves to be resilient towards changes in spectral emissivity and tolerates noisy spectral measurements. It is based on an assumption of smooth changes in emissivity and uses historical values of spectral emissivity and temperature for estimating current spectral emissivity. The algorithm, its constituent steps and accompanying parameters are described and discussed. A thorough sensitivity analysis of the method is carried out through simulations. No rigorous instrument calibration is needed for the presented method and it is therefore industrially tractable. (paper)
Sensitive Spectroscopic Analysis of Biomarkers in Exhaled Breath
Bicer, A.; Bounds, J.; Zhu, F.; Kolomenskii, A. A.; Kaya, N.; Aluauee, E.; Amani, M.; Schuessler, H. A.
2018-06-01
We have developed a novel optical setup which is based on a high finesse cavity and absorption laser spectroscopy in the near-IR spectral region. In pilot experiments, spectrally resolved absorption measurements of biomarkers in exhaled breath, such as methane and acetone, were carried out using cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). With a 172-cm-long cavity, an efficient optical path of 132 km was achieved. The CRDS technique is well suited for such measurements due to its high sensitivity and good spectral resolution. The detection limits for methane of 8 ppbv and acetone of 2.1 ppbv with spectral sampling of 0.005 cm-1 were achieved, which allowed to analyze multicomponent gas mixtures and to observe absorption peaks of 12CH4 and 13CH4. Further improvements of the technique have the potential to realize diagnostics of health conditions based on a multicomponent analysis of breath samples.
Sequence length variation, indel costs, and congruence in sensitivity analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Aagesen, Lone; Petersen, Gitte; Seberg, Ole
2005-01-01
The behavior of two topological and four character-based congruence measures was explored using different indel treatments in three empirical data sets, each with different alignment difficulties. The analyses were done using direct optimization within a sensitivity analysis framework in which...... the cost of indels was varied. Indels were treated either as a fifth character state, or strings of contiguous gaps were considered single events by using linear affine gap cost. Congruence consistently improved when indels were treated as single events, but no congruence measure appeared as the obviously...... preferable one. However, when combining enough data, all congruence measures clearly tended to select the same alignment cost set as the optimal one. Disagreement among congruence measures was mostly caused by a dominant fragment or a data partition that included all or most of the length variation...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dipak Kumar Jana
2017-06-01
Full Text Available In real world applications supply, demand and transportation costs per unit of the quantities in multi-objective transportation problems may be hardly specified accurately because of the changing economic and environmental conditions. It is also significant that the time required for transportation should be minimized. In this paper, we have presented three reduction methods for a type-2 triangular fuzzy variable (T2TrFV by adopting the critical value (CV. Three generalized expected values (optimistic, CV and pessimistic are derived for T2TrFVs with some special cases. Then a multi-objective profit transportation problem (MOPTP with fixed charge (FC cost has been formulated and solved in type-2 fuzzy environment. Unit transportation costs, FC, selling prices, unit transport times, loading and unloading times, total supply capacities and demands are all considered as triangular Type-2 fuzzy numbers. The MOPTP has been converted into a single objective by using the goal programming technique and the weighted sum method. The deterministic model is then solved using the Generalized Reduced Gradient method Lingo 14.0. Numerical experiments with some sensitivity analysis are illustrated the application and effectiveness of the proposed approaches.
Global sensitivity analysis using low-rank tensor approximations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Konakli, Katerina; Sudret, Bruno
2016-01-01
In the context of global sensitivity analysis, the Sobol' indices constitute a powerful tool for assessing the relative significance of the uncertain input parameters of a model. We herein introduce a novel approach for evaluating these indices at low computational cost, by post-processing the coefficients of polynomial meta-models belonging to the class of low-rank tensor approximations. Meta-models of this class can be particularly efficient in representing responses of high-dimensional models, because the number of unknowns in their general functional form grows only linearly with the input dimension. The proposed approach is validated in example applications, where the Sobol' indices derived from the meta-model coefficients are compared to reference indices, the latter obtained by exact analytical solutions or Monte-Carlo simulation with extremely large samples. Moreover, low-rank tensor approximations are confronted to the popular polynomial chaos expansion meta-models in case studies that involve analytical rank-one functions and finite-element models pertinent to structural mechanics and heat conduction. In the examined applications, indices based on the novel approach tend to converge faster to the reference solution with increasing size of the experimental design used to build the meta-model. - Highlights: • A new method is proposed for global sensitivity analysis of high-dimensional models. • Low-rank tensor approximations (LRA) are used as a meta-modeling technique. • Analytical formulas for the Sobol' indices in terms of LRA coefficients are derived. • The accuracy and efficiency of the approach is illustrated in application examples. • LRA-based indices are compared to indices based on polynomial chaos expansions.
High Fidelity Multi-Objective Design Optimization of a Downscaled Cusped Field Thruster
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Fahey
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The Cusped Field Thruster (CFT concept has demonstrated significantly improved performance over the Hall Effect Thruster and the Gridded Ion Thruster; however, little is understood about the complexities of the interactions and interdependencies of the geometrical, magnetic and ion beam properties of the thruster. This study applies an advanced design methodology combining a modified power distribution calculation and evolutionary algorithms assisted by surrogate modeling to a multi-objective design optimization for the performance optimization and characterization of the CFT. Optimization is performed for maximization of performance defined by five design parameters (i.e., anode voltage, anode current, mass flow rate, and magnet radii, simultaneously aiming to maximize three objectives; that is, thrust, efficiency and specific impulse. Statistical methods based on global sensitivity analysis are employed to assess the optimization results in conjunction with surrogate models to identify key design factors with respect to the three design objectives and additional performance measures. The research indicates that the anode current and the Outer Magnet Radius have the greatest effect on the performance parameters. An optimal value for the anode current is determined, and a trend towards maximizing anode potential and mass flow rate is observed.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Samira Bolouri
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Determining the positions of facilities, and allocating demands to them, is a vitally important problem. Location-allocation problems are optimization NP-hard procedures. This article evaluates the ordered capacitated multi-objective location-allocation problem for fire stations, using simulated annealing and a genetic algorithm, with goals such as minimizing the distance and time as well as maximizing the coverage. After tuning the parameters of the algorithms using sensitivity analysis, they were used separately to process data for Region 11, Tehran. The results showed that the genetic algorithm was more efficient than simulated annealing, and therefore, the genetic algorithm was used in later steps. Next, we increased the number of stations. Results showed that the model can successfully provide seven optimal locations and allocate high demands (280,000 to stations in a discrete space in a GIS, assuming that the stations’ capacities are known. Following this, we used a weighting program so that in each repetition, we could allot weights to each target randomly. Finally, by repeating the model over 10 independent executions, a set of solutions with the least sum and the highest number of non-dominated solutions was selected from among many non-dominated solutions as the best set of optimal solutions.
Multi-objective optimization of aircraft design for emission and cost reductions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wang Yu
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Pollutant gases emitted from the civil jet are doing more and more harm to the environment with the rapid development of the global commercial aviation transport. Low environmental impact has become a new requirement for aircraft design. In this paper, estimation method for emission in aircraft conceptual design stage is improved based on the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO aircraft engine emissions databank and the polynomial curve fitting methods. The greenhouse gas emission (CO2 equivalent per seat per kilometer is proposed to measure the emissions. An approximate sensitive analysis and a multi-objective optimization of aircraft design for tradeoff between greenhouse effect and direct operating cost (DOC are performed with five geometry variables of wing configuration and two flight operational parameters. The results indicate that reducing the cruise altitude and Mach number may result in a decrease of the greenhouse effect but an increase of DOC. And the two flight operational parameters have more effects on the emissions than the wing configuration. The Pareto-optimal front shows that a decrease of 29.8% in DOC is attained at the expense of an increase of 10.8% in greenhouse gases.
Multiobjective Location Model Design Based on Government Subsidy in the Recycling of CDW
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peihua Fu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available With the generation of a large amount of construction and demolition waste (CDW, many scholars have recently paid more attention to the recycling of CDW. In this paper, we design a classification recycling method based on the degree of CDW availability in the recycling of CDW. Considering the important role of the government in reverse logistics, a model of reverse logistics network based on the trade-off between cost and recycling rate is put forward, which is subject to government subsidy. The model includes the location of classification processing center and ensures the best route of transportation. Then, the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied to solve the model to get Pareto frontier by transforming it into a multiobjective integer-programming problem. As a case study, the results of the statistical modeling used in this study indicate the feasibility of the model. Finally, according to the sensitivity analysis of government’s subsidy, we evaluate the effectiveness of this program and its applicability.
Sensitivity analysis on various parameters for lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel with WIMS-AECL code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok; Park, Jee Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)
1997-12-31
The code WIMS-AECL has been used for the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel. The lattice parameters calculated by the code is sensitive to the choice of number of parameters, such as the number of tracking lines, number of condensed groups, mesh spacing in the moderator region, other parameters vital to the calculation of probabilities and burnup analysis. We have studied this sensitivity with respect to these parameters and recommend their proper values which are necessary for carrying out the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel.
Sensitivity analysis on various parameters for lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel with WIMS-AECL code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok; Park, Jee Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)
1998-12-31
The code WIMS-AECL has been used for the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel. The lattice parameters calculated by the code is sensitive to the choice of number of parameters, such as the number of tracking lines, number of condensed groups, mesh spacing in the moderator region, other parameters vital to the calculation of probabilities and burnup analysis. We have studied this sensitivity with respect to these parameters and recommend their proper values which are necessary for carrying out the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel.
An Overview of the Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments for Sensitivity Analysis
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2004-01-01
Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models.This review surveys classic and modern designs for experiments with simulation models.Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc.These designs assume a
Convex hull ranking algorithm for multi-objective evolutionary algorithms
Davoodi Monfrared, M.; Mohades, A.; Rezaei, J.
2012-01-01
Due to many applications of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms in real world optimization problems, several studies have been done to improve these algorithms in recent years. Since most multi-objective evolutionary algorithms are based on the non-dominated principle, and their complexity
Existence of pareto equilibria for multiobjective games without compactness
Shiraishi, Yuya; Kuroiwa, Daishi
2013-01-01
In this paper, we investigate the existence of Pareto and weak Pareto equilibria for multiobjective games without compactness. By employing an existence theorem of Pareto equilibria due to Yu and Yuan([10]), several existence theorems of Pareto and weak Pareto equilibria for the multiobjective games are established in a similar way to Flores-B´azan.
A risk-based multi-objective model for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system
Naserizade, Sareh S.; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Montaseri, Hossein
2018-02-01
In this study, a new stochastic model based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and multi-objective optimization methods is developed for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system (WDS). This model determines minimization of risk which is caused by simultaneous multi-point contamination injection in WDS using CVaR approach. The CVaR considers uncertainties of contamination injection in the form of probability distribution function and calculates low-probability extreme events. In this approach, extreme losses occur at tail of the losses distribution function. Four-objective optimization model based on NSGA-II algorithm is developed to minimize losses of contamination injection (through CVaR of affected population and detection time) and also minimize the two other main criteria of optimal placement of sensors including probability of undetected events and cost. Finally, to determine the best solution, Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), as a subgroup of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach, is utilized to rank the alternatives on the trade-off curve among objective functions. Also, sensitivity analysis is done to investigate the importance of each criterion on PROMETHEE results considering three relative weighting scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is examined through applying it to Lamerd WDS in the southwestern part of Iran. The PROMETHEE suggests 6 sensors with suitable distribution that approximately cover all regions of WDS. Optimal values related to CVaR of affected population and detection time as well as probability of undetected events for the best optimal solution are equal to 17,055 persons, 31 mins and 0.045%, respectively. The obtained results of the proposed methodology in Lamerd WDS show applicability of CVaR-based multi-objective simulation-optimization model for incorporating the main uncertainties of contamination injection in order to evaluate extreme value
COSMOS: Carnegie Observatories System for MultiObject Spectroscopy
Oemler, A.; Clardy, K.; Kelson, D.; Walth, G.; Villanueva, E.
2017-05-01
COSMOS (Carnegie Observatories System for MultiObject Spectroscopy) reduces multislit spectra obtained with the IMACS and LDSS3 spectrographs on the Magellan Telescopes. It can be used for the quick-look analysis of data at the telescope as well as for pipeline reduction of large data sets. COSMOS is based on a precise optical model of the spectrographs, which allows (after alignment and calibration) an accurate prediction of the location of spectra features. This eliminates the line search procedure which is fundamental to many spectral reduction programs, and allows a robust data pipeline to be run in an almost fully automatic mode, allowing large amounts of data to be reduced with minimal intervention.
Relative performance of academic departments using DEA with sensitivity analysis.
Tyagi, Preeti; Yadav, Shiv Prasad; Singh, S P
2009-05-01
The process of liberalization and globalization of Indian economy has brought new opportunities and challenges in all areas of human endeavor including education. Educational institutions have to adopt new strategies to make best use of the opportunities and counter the challenges. One of these challenges is how to assess the performance of academic programs based on multiple criteria. Keeping this in view, this paper attempts to evaluate the performance efficiencies of 19 academic departments of IIT Roorkee (India) through data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. The technique has been used to assess the performance of academic institutions in a number of countries like USA, UK, Australia, etc. But we are using it first time in Indian context to the best of our knowledge. Applying DEA models, we calculate technical, pure technical and scale efficiencies and identify the reference sets for inefficient departments. Input and output projections are also suggested for inefficient departments to reach the frontier. Overall performance, research performance and teaching performance are assessed separately using sensitivity analysis.
PDASAC, Partial Differential Sensitivity Analysis of Stiff System
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Caracotsios, M.; Stewart, W.E.
2001-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: PDASAC solves stiff, nonlinear initial-boundary-value problems in a timelike dimension t and a space dimension x. Plane, circular cylindrical or spherical boundaries can be handled. Mixed-order systems of partial differential and algebraic equations can be analyzed with members of order or 0 or 1 in t, 0, 1 or 2 in x. Parametric sensitivities of the calculated states are computed simultaneously on request, via the Jacobian of the state equations. Initial and boundary conditions are efficiently reconciled. Local error control (in the max-norm or the 2-norm) is provided for the state vector and can include the parametric sensitivities if desired. 2 - Method of solution: The method of lines is used, with a user- selected x-grid and a minimum-bandwidth finite-difference approximations of the x-derivatives. Starting conditions are reconciled with a damped Newton algorithm adapted from Bain and Stewart (1991). Initial step selection is done by the first-order algorithms of Shampine (1987), extended here to differential- algebraic equation systems. The solution is continued with the DASSL predictor-corrector algorithm (Petzold 1983, Brenan et al. 1989) with the initial acceleration phase deleted and with row scaling of the Jacobian added. The predictor and corrector are expressed in divided-difference form, with the fixed-leading-coefficient form of corrector (Jackson and Sacks-Davis 1989; Brenan et al. 1989). Weights for the error tests are updated in each step with the user's tolerances at the predicted state. Sensitivity analysis is performed directly on the corrector equations of Caracotsios and Stewart (1985) and is extended here to the initialization when needed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: This algorithm, like DASSL, performs well on differential-algebraic equation systems of index 0 and 1 but not on higher-index systems; see Brenan et al. (1989). The user assigned the work array lengths and the output
Sensitivity Analysis for Steady State Groundwater Flow Using Adjoint Operators
Sykes, J. F.; Wilson, J. L.; Andrews, R. W.
1985-03-01
Adjoint sensitivity theory is currently being considered as a potential method for calculating the sensitivity of nuclear waste repository performance measures to the parameters of the system. For groundwater flow systems, performance measures of interest include piezometric heads in the vicinity of a waste site, velocities or travel time in aquifers, and mass discharge to biosphere points. The parameters include recharge-discharge rates, prescribed boundary heads or fluxes, formation thicknesses, and hydraulic conductivities. The derivative of a performance measure with respect to the system parameters is usually taken as a measure of sensitivity. To calculate sensitivities, adjoint sensitivity equations are formulated from the equations describing the primary problem. The solution of the primary problem and the adjoint sensitivity problem enables the determination of all of the required derivatives and hence related sensitivity coefficients. In this study, adjoint sensitivity theory is developed for equations of two-dimensional steady state flow in a confined aquifer. Both the primary flow equation and the adjoint sensitivity equation are solved using the Galerkin finite element method. The developed computer code is used to investigate the regional flow parameters of the Leadville Formation of the Paradox Basin in Utah. The results illustrate the sensitivity of calculated local heads to the boundary conditions. Alternatively, local velocity related performance measures are more sensitive to hydraulic conductivities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Easter, Richard C. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Fast, Jerome D. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California Davis, California USA; Guenther, Alex [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA
2016-04-08
We investigate the sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) loadings simulated by a regional chemical transport model to 7 selected tunable model parameters: 4 involving emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds, anthropogenic semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organics (SIVOCs), and NOx, 2 involving dry deposition of SOA precursor gases, and one involving particle-phase transformation of SOA to low volatility. We adopt a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach to effectively sample the high-dimensional parameter space, and perform a 250 member ensemble of simulations using a regional model, accounting for some of the latest advances in SOA treatments based on our recent work. We then conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the generalized linear model method to study the responses of simulated SOA loadings to the tunable parameters. Analysis of SOA variance from all 250 simulations shows that the volatility transformation parameter, which controls whether particle-phase transformation of SOA from semi-volatile SOA to non-volatile is on or off, is the dominant contributor to variance of simulated surface-level daytime SOA (65% domain average contribution). We also split the simulations into 2 subsets of 125 each, depending on whether the volatility transformation is turned on/off. For each subset, the SOA variances are dominated by the parameters involving biogenic VOC and anthropogenic SIVOC emissions. Furthermore, biogenic VOC emissions have a larger contribution to SOA variance when the SOA transformation to non-volatile is on, while anthropogenic SIVOC emissions have a larger contribution when the transformation is off. NOx contributes less than 4.3% to SOA variance, and this low contribution is mainly attributed to dominance of intermediate to high NOx conditions throughout the simulated domain. The two parameters related to dry deposition of SOA precursor gases also have very low contributions to SOA variance
Multi-objective optimization integrated with life cycle assessment for rainwater harvesting systems
Li, Yi; Huang, Youyi; Ye, Quanliang; Zhang, Wenlong; Meng, Fangang; Zhang, Shanxue
2018-03-01
The major limitation of optimization models applied previously for rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems is the systematic evaluation of environmental and human health impacts across all the lifecycle stages. This study integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) into a multi-objective optimization model to optimize the construction areas of green rooftops, porous pavements and green lands in Beijing of China, considering the trade-offs among 24 h-interval RWH volume (QR), stormwater runoff volume control ratio (R), economic cost (EC), and environmental impacts (EI). Eleven life cycle impact indicators were assessed with a functional unit of 10,000 m2 of RWH construction areas. The LCA results showed that green lands performed the smallest lifecycle impacts of all assessment indicators, in contrast, porous pavements showed the largest impact values except Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP) elements. Based on the standardization results, ADP fossil was chosen as the representative indicator for the calculation of EI objective in multi-objective optimization model due to its largest value in all RWH systems lifecycle. The optimization results for QR, R, EC and EI were 238.80 million m3, 78.5%, 66.68 billion RMB Yuan, and 1.05E + 16 MJ, respectively. After the construction of optimal RWH system, 14.7% of annual domestic water consumption and 78.5% of maximum daily rainfall would be supplied and controlled in Beijing, respectively, which would make a great contribution to reduce the stress of water scarcity and water logging problems. Green lands have been the first choice for RWH in Beijing according to the capacity of rainwater harvesting and less environmental and human impacts. Porous pavements played a good role in water logging alleviation (R for 67.5%), however, did not show a large construction result in this study due to the huge ADP fossil across the lifecycle. Sensitivity analysis revealed the daily maximum precipitation to be key factor for the robustness of the
An Application of Monte-Carlo-Based Sensitivity Analysis on the Overlap in Discriminant Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Razmyan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Discriminant analysis (DA is used for the measurement of estimates of a discriminant function by minimizing their group misclassifications to predict group membership of newly sampled data. A major source of misclassification in DA is due to the overlapping of groups. The uncertainty in the input variables and model parameters needs to be properly characterized in decision making. This study combines DEA-DA with a sensitivity analysis approach to an assessment of the influence of banks’ variables on the overall variance in overlap in a DA in order to determine which variables are most significant. A Monte-Carlo-based sensitivity analysis is considered for computing the set of first-order sensitivity indices of the variables to estimate the contribution of each uncertain variable. The results show that the uncertainties in the loans granted and different deposit variables are more significant than uncertainties in other banks’ variables in decision making.
Sensitivity analysis of alkaline plume modelling: influence of mineralogy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gaboreau, S.; Claret, F.; Marty, N.; Burnol, A.; Tournassat, C.; Gaucher, E.C.; Munier, I.; Michau, N.; Cochepin, B.
2010-01-01
Document available in extended abstract form only. In the context of a disposal facility for radioactive waste in clayey geological formation, an important modelling effort has been carried out in order to predict the time evolution of interacting cement based (concrete or cement) and clay (argillites and bentonite) materials. The high number of modelling input parameters associated with non negligible uncertainties makes often difficult the interpretation of modelling results. As a consequence, it is necessary to carry out sensitivity analysis on main modelling parameters. In a recent study, Marty et al. (2009) could demonstrate that numerical mesh refinement and consideration of dissolution/precipitation kinetics have a marked effect on (i) the time necessary to numerically clog the initial porosity and (ii) on the final mineral assemblage at the interface. On the contrary, these input parameters have little effect on the extension of the alkaline pH plume. In the present study, we propose to investigate the effects of the considered initial mineralogy on the principal simulation outputs: (1) the extension of the high pH plume, (2) the time to clog the porosity and (3) the alteration front in the clay barrier (extension and nature of mineralogy changes). This was done through sensitivity analysis on both concrete composition and clay mineralogical assemblies since in most published studies, authors considered either only one composition per materials or simplified mineralogy in order to facilitate or to reduce their calculation times. 1D Cartesian reactive transport models were run in order to point out the importance of (1) the crystallinity of concrete phases, (2) the type of clayey materials and (3) the choice of secondary phases that are allowed to precipitate during calculations. Two concrete materials with either nanocrystalline or crystalline phases were simulated in contact with two clayey materials (smectite MX80 or Callovo- Oxfordian argillites). Both
Grey Relational Analyses for Multi-Objective Optimization of Turning S45C Carbon Steel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shah, A.H.A.; Azmi, A.I.; Khalil, A.N.M.
2016-01-01
The optimization of performance characteristics in turning process can be achieved through selection of proper machining parameters. It is well known that many researchers have successfully reported the optimization of single performance characteristic. Nevertheless, the multi-objective optimization can be difficult and challenging to be studied due to its complexity in analysis. This is because an improvement of one performance characteristic may lead to degradation of other performance characteristic. As a result, the study of multi-objective optimization in CNC turning of S45C carbon steel has been attempted in this paper through Taguchi and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) method. Through this methodology, the multiple performance characteristics, namely; surface roughness, material removal rate (MRR), tool wear, and power consumption; can be optimized simultaneously. It appears from the experimental results that the multiple performance characteristics in CNC turning was achieved and improved through the methodology employed. (paper)
Multiobjective Optimization Methodology A Jumping Gene Approach
Tang, KS
2012-01-01
Complex design problems are often governed by a number of performance merits. These markers gauge how good the design is going to be, but can conflict with the performance requirements that must be met. The challenge is reconciling these two requirements. This book introduces a newly developed jumping gene algorithm, designed to address the multi-functional objectives problem and supplies a viably adequate solution in speed. The text presents various multi-objective optimization techniques and provides the technical know-how for obtaining trade-off solutions between solution spread and converg
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo
2015-01-01
Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2015-05-15
Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM.
ECOS - analysis of sensitivity to database and input parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sumerling, T.J.; Jones, C.H.
1986-06-01
The sensitivity of doses calculated by the generic biosphere code ECOS to parameter changes has been investigated by the authors for the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme. The sensitivity of results to radionuclide dependent parameters has been tested by specifying reasonable parameter ranges and performing code runs for best estimate, upper-bound and lower-bound parameter values. The work indicates that doses are most sensitive to scenario parameters: geosphere input fractions, area of contaminated land, land use and diet, flux of contaminated waters and water use. Recommendations are made based on the results of sensitivity. (author)
A Sensitivity Analysis of fMRI Balloon Model
Zayane, Chadia
2015-04-22
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) allows the mapping of the brain activation through measurements of the Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) contrast. The characterization of the pathway from the input stimulus to the output BOLD signal requires the selection of an adequate hemodynamic model and the satisfaction of some specific conditions while conducting the experiment and calibrating the model. This paper, focuses on the identifiability of the Balloon hemodynamic model. By identifiability, we mean the ability to estimate accurately the model parameters given the input and the output measurement. Previous studies of the Balloon model have somehow added knowledge either by choosing prior distributions for the parameters, freezing some of them, or looking for the solution as a projection on a natural basis of some vector space. In these studies, the identification was generally assessed using event-related paradigms. This paper justifies the reasons behind the need of adding knowledge, choosing certain paradigms, and completing the few existing identifiability studies through a global sensitivity analysis of the Balloon model in the case of blocked design experiment.
Methods and computer codes for probabilistic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vaurio, J.K.
1985-01-01
This paper describes the methods and applications experience with two computer codes that are now available from the National Energy Software Center at Argonne National Laboratory. The purpose of the SCREEN code is to identify a group of most important input variables of a code that has many (tens, hundreds) input variables with uncertainties, and do this without relying on judgment or exhaustive sensitivity studies. Purpose of the PROSA-2 code is to propagate uncertainties and calculate the distributions of interesting output variable(s) of a safety analysis code using response surface techniques, based on the same runs used for screening. Several applications are discussed, but the codes are generic, not tailored to any specific safety application code. They are compatible in terms of input/output requirements but also independent of each other, e.g., PROSA-2 can be used without first using SCREEN if a set of important input variables has first been selected by other methods. Also, although SCREEN can select cases to be run (by random sampling), a user can select cases by other methods if he so prefers, and still use the rest of SCREEN for identifying important input variables
Nonparametric Bounds and Sensitivity Analysis of Treatment Effects
Richardson, Amy; Hudgens, Michael G.; Gilbert, Peter B.; Fine, Jason P.
2015-01-01
This paper considers conducting inference about the effect of a treatment (or exposure) on an outcome of interest. In the ideal setting where treatment is assigned randomly, under certain assumptions the treatment effect is identifiable from the observable data and inference is straightforward. However, in other settings such as observational studies or randomized trials with noncompliance, the treatment effect is no longer identifiable without relying on untestable assumptions. Nonetheless, the observable data often do provide some information about the effect of treatment, that is, the parameter of interest is partially identifiable. Two approaches are often employed in this setting: (i) bounds are derived for the treatment effect under minimal assumptions, or (ii) additional untestable assumptions are invoked that render the treatment effect identifiable and then sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess how inference about the treatment effect changes as the untestable assumptions are varied. Approaches (i) and (ii) are considered in various settings, including assessing principal strata effects, direct and indirect effects and effects of time-varying exposures. Methods for drawing formal inference about partially identified parameters are also discussed. PMID:25663743
Impact Responses and Parameters Sensitivity Analysis of Electric Wheelchairs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Song Wang
2018-06-01
Full Text Available The shock and vibration of electric wheelchairs undergoing road irregularities is inevitable. The road excitation causes the uneven magnetic gap of the motor, and the harmful vibration decreases the recovery rate of rehabilitation patients. To effectively suppress the shock and vibration, this paper introduces the DA (dynamic absorber to the electric wheelchair. Firstly, a vibration model of the human-wheelchair system with the DA was created. The models of the road excitation for wheelchairs going up a step and going down a step were proposed, respectively. To reasonably evaluate the impact level of the human-wheelchair system undergoing the step–road transition, evaluation indexes were given. Moreover, the created vibration model and the road–step model were validated via tests. Then, to reveal the vibration suppression performance of the DA, the impact responses and the amplitude frequency characteristics were numerically simulated and compared. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the impact responses to the tire static radius r and the characteristic parameters was carried out. The results show that the DA can effectively suppress the shock and vibration of the human-wheelchair system. Moreover, for the electric wheelchair going up a step and going down a step, there are some differences in the vibration behaviors.
A Sensitivity Analysis of fMRI Balloon Model
Zayane, Chadia; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem
2015-01-01
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) allows the mapping of the brain activation through measurements of the Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) contrast. The characterization of the pathway from the input stimulus to the output BOLD signal requires the selection of an adequate hemodynamic model and the satisfaction of some specific conditions while conducting the experiment and calibrating the model. This paper, focuses on the identifiability of the Balloon hemodynamic model. By identifiability, we mean the ability to estimate accurately the model parameters given the input and the output measurement. Previous studies of the Balloon model have somehow added knowledge either by choosing prior distributions for the parameters, freezing some of them, or looking for the solution as a projection on a natural basis of some vector space. In these studies, the identification was generally assessed using event-related paradigms. This paper justifies the reasons behind the need of adding knowledge, choosing certain paradigms, and completing the few existing identifiability studies through a global sensitivity analysis of the Balloon model in the case of blocked design experiment.
Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk
Picone, Sara
2012-03-30
A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion. © 2012 SETAC.
Sensitivity study of CFD turbulent models for natural convection analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu sun, Park
2007-01-01
The buoyancy driven convective flow fields are steady circulatory flows which were made between surfaces maintained at two fixed temperatures. They are ubiquitous in nature and play an important role in many engineering applications. Application of a natural convection can reduce the costs and efforts remarkably. This paper focuses on the sensitivity study of turbulence analysis using CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) for a natural convection in a closed rectangular cavity. Using commercial CFD code, FLUENT and various turbulent models were applied to the turbulent flow. Results from each CFD model will be compared each other in the viewpoints of grid resolution and flow characteristics. It has been showed that: -) obtaining general flow characteristics is possible with relatively coarse grid; -) there is no significant difference between results from finer grid resolutions than grid with y + + is defined as y + = ρ*u*y/μ, u being the wall friction velocity, y being the normal distance from the center of the cell to the wall, ρ and μ being respectively the fluid density and the fluid viscosity; -) the K-ε models show a different flow characteristic from K-ω models or from the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM); and -) the y + parameter is crucial for the selection of the appropriate turbulence model to apply within the simulation
Multi-scale sensitivity analysis of pile installation using DEM
Esposito, Ricardo Gurevitz; Velloso, Raquel Quadros; , Eurípedes do Amaral Vargas, Jr.; Danziger, Bernadete Ragoni
2017-12-01
The disturbances experienced by the soil due to the pile installation and dynamic soil-structure interaction still present major challenges to foundation engineers. These phenomena exhibit complex behaviors, difficult to measure in physical tests and to reproduce in numerical models. Due to the simplified approach used by the discrete element method (DEM) to simulate large deformations and nonlinear stress-dilatancy behavior of granular soils, the DEM consists of an excellent tool to investigate these processes. This study presents a sensitivity analysis of the effects of introducing a single pile using the PFC2D software developed by Itasca Co. The different scales investigated in these simulations include point and shaft resistance, alterations in porosity and stress fields and particles displacement. Several simulations were conducted in order to investigate the effects of different numerical approaches showing indications that the method of installation and particle rotation could influence greatly in the conditions around the numerical pile. Minor effects were also noted due to change in penetration velocity and pile-soil friction. The difference in behavior of a moving and a stationary pile shows good qualitative agreement with previous experimental results indicating the necessity of realizing a force equilibrium process prior to any load-test to be simulated.
Sensitivity Analysis for the CLIC Damping Ring Inductive Adder
Holma, Janne
2012-01-01
The CLIC study is exploring the scheme for an electron-positron collider with high luminosity and a nominal centre-of-mass energy of 3 TeV. The CLIC pre-damping rings and damping rings will produce, through synchrotron radiation, ultra-low emittance beam with high bunch charge, necessary for the luminosity performance of the collider. To limit the beam emittance blow-up due to oscillations, the pulse generators for the damping ring kickers must provide extremely flat, high-voltage pulses. The specifications for the extraction kickers of the CLIC damping rings are particularly demanding: the flattop of the output pulse must be 160 ns duration, 12.5 kV and 250 A, with a combined ripple and droop of not more than ±0.02 %. An inductive adder allows the use of different modulation techniques and is therefore a very promising approach to meeting the specifications. PSpice has been utilised to carry out a sensitivity analysis of the predicted output pulse to the value of both individual and groups of circuit compon...
Multi-Objective Optimization of Managed Aquifer Recharge.
Fatkhutdinov, Aybulat; Stefan, Catalin
2018-04-27
This study demonstrates the utilization of a multi-objective hybrid global/local optimization algorithm for solving managed aquifer recharge (MAR) design problems, in which the decision variables included spatial arrangement of water injection and abstraction wells and time-variant rates of pumping and injection. The objective of the optimization was to maximize the efficiency of the MAR scheme, which includes both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The case study used to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach is based on a published report on designing a real MAR site with defined aquifer properties, chemical groundwater characteristics as well as quality and volumes of injected water. The demonstration problems include steady-state and transient scenarios. The steady-state scenario demonstrates optimization of spatial arrangement of multiple injection and recovery wells, whereas the transient scenario was developed with the purpose of finding optimal regimes of water injection and recovery at a single location. Both problems were defined as multi-objective problems. The scenarios were simulated by applying coupled numerical groundwater flow and solute transport models: MODFLOW-2005 and MT3D-USGS. The applied optimization method was a combination of global - the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-2), and local - the Nelder-Mead Downhill Simplex search algorithms. The analysis of the resulting Pareto optimal solutions led to the discovery of valuable patterns and dependencies between the decision variables, model properties and problem objectives. Additionally, the performance of the traditional global and the hybrid optimization schemes were compared. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Thermodynamic design of Stirling engine using multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duan, Chen; Wang, Xinggang; Shu, Shuiming; Jing, Changwei; Chang, Huawei
2014-01-01
Highlights: • An improved thermodynamic model taking into account irreversibility parameter was developed. • A multi-objective optimization method for designing Stirling engine was investigated. • Multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm was adopted in the area of Stirling engine for the first time. - Abstract: In the recent years, the interest in Stirling engine has remarkably increased due to its ability to use any heat source from outside including solar energy, fossil fuels and biomass. A large number of studies have been done on Stirling cycle analysis. In the present study, a mathematical model based on thermodynamic analysis of Stirling engine considering regenerative losses and internal irreversibilities has been developed. Power output, thermal efficiency and the cycle irreversibility parameter of Stirling engine are optimized simultaneously using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, which is more effective than traditional genetic algorithms. In this optimization problem, some important parameters of Stirling engine are considered as decision variables, such as temperatures of the working fluid both in the high temperature isothermal process and in the low temperature isothermal process, dead volume ratios of each heat exchanger, volumes of each working spaces, effectiveness of the regenerator, and the system charge pressure. The Pareto optimal frontier is obtained and the final design solution has been selected by Linear Programming Technique for Multidimensional Analysis of Preference (LINMAP). Results show that the proposed multi-objective optimization approach can significantly outperform traditional single objective approaches
Ayadi, Omar; Felfel, Houssem; Masmoudi, Faouzi
2017-07-01
The current manufacturing environment has changed from traditional single-plant to multi-site supply chain where multiple plants are serving customer demands. In this article, a tactical multi-objective, multi-period, multi-product, multi-site supply-chain planning problem is proposed. A corresponding optimization model aiming to simultaneously minimize the total cost, maximize product quality and maximize the customer satisfaction demand level is developed. The proposed solution approach yields to a front of Pareto-optimal solutions that represents the trade-offs among the different objectives. Subsequently, the analytic hierarchy process method is applied to select the best Pareto-optimal solution according to the preferences of the decision maker. The robustness of the solutions and the proposed approach are discussed based on a sensitivity analysis and an application to a real case from the textile and apparel industry.
Considering Respiratory Tract Infections and Antimicrobial Sensitivity: An Exploratory Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amin, R.
2009-01-01
Full Text Available This study was conducted to observe the sensitivity and resistance of status of antibiotics for respiratory tract infection (RTI. Throat swab culture and sensitivity report of 383 patients revealed sensitivity profiles were observed with amoxycillin (7.9%, penicillin (33.7%, ampicillin (36.6%, co-trimoxazole (46.5%, azithromycin (53.5%, erythromycin (57.4%, cephalexin (69.3%, gentamycin (78.2%, ciprofloxacin (80.2%, cephradine (81.2%, ceftazidime (93.1%, ceftriaxone (93.1%. Sensitivity to cefuroxime was reported 93.1% cases. Resistance was found with amoxycillin (90.1%, ampicillin (64.1%, penicillin (61.4%, co-trimoxazole (43.6%, erythromycin (39.6%, and azithromycin (34.7%. Cefuroxime demonstrates high level of sensitivity than other antibiotics and supports its consideration with patients with upper RTI.
AMOBH: Adaptive Multiobjective Black Hole Algorithm.
Wu, Chong; Wu, Tao; Fu, Kaiyuan; Zhu, Yuan; Li, Yongbo; He, Wangyong; Tang, Shengwen
2017-01-01
This paper proposes a new multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on the black hole algorithm with a new individual density assessment (cell density), called "adaptive multiobjective black hole algorithm" (AMOBH). Cell density has the characteristics of low computational complexity and maintains a good balance of convergence and diversity of the Pareto front. The framework of AMOBH can be divided into three steps. Firstly, the Pareto front is mapped to a new objective space called parallel cell coordinate system. Then, to adjust the evolutionary strategies adaptively, Shannon entropy is employed to estimate the evolution status. At last, the cell density is combined with a dominance strength assessment called cell dominance to evaluate the fitness of solutions. Compared with the state-of-the-art methods SPEA-II, PESA-II, NSGA-II, and MOEA/D, experimental results show that AMOBH has a good performance in terms of convergence rate, population diversity, population convergence, subpopulation obtention of different Pareto regions, and time complexity to the latter in most cases.
Sensitivity analysis: Theory and practical application in safety cases
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuhlmann, Sebastian; Plischke, Elmar; Roehlig, Klaus-Juergen; Becker, Dirk-Alexander
2014-01-01
The projects described here aim at deriving an adaptive and stepwise approach to sensitivity analysis (SA). Since the appropriateness of a single SA method strongly depends on the nature of the model under study, a top-down approach (from simple to sophisticated methods) is suggested. If simple methods explain the model behaviour sufficiently well then there is no need for applying more sophisticated ones and the SA procedure can be considered complete. The procedure is developed and tested using a model for a LLW/ILW repository in salt. Additionally, a new model for the disposal of HLW in rock salt will be available soon for SA studies within the MOSEL/NUMSA projects. This model will address special characteristics of waste disposal in undisturbed rock salt, especially the case of total confinement, resulting in a zero release which is indeed the objective of radioactive waste disposal. A high proportion of zero-output realisations causes many SA methods to fail, so special treatment is needed and has to be developed. Furthermore, the HLW disposal model will be used as a first test case for applying the procedure described above, which was and is being derived using the LLW/ILW model. How to treat dependencies in the input, model conservatism and time-dependent outputs will be addressed in the future project programme: - If correlations or, more generally, dependencies between input parameters exist, the question arises about the deeper meaning of sensitivity results in such cases: A strict separation between inputs, internal states and outputs is no longer possible. Such correlations (or dependencies) might have different reasons. In some cases correlated input parameters might have a common physically (well-)known fundamental cause but there are reasons why this fundamental cause cannot or should not be integrated into the model, i.e. the cause might generate a very complex model which cannot be calculated in appropriate time. In other cases the correlation may
Meng, Qing-chun; Rong, Xiao-xia; Zhang, Yi-min; Wan, Xiao-le; Liu, Yuan-yuan; Wang, Yu-zhi
2016-01-01
CO2 emission influences not only global climate change but also international economic and political situations. Thus, reducing the emission of CO2, a major greenhouse gas, has become a major issue in China and around the world as regards preserving the environmental ecology. Energy consumption from coal, oil, and natural gas is primarily responsible for the production of greenhouse gases and air pollutants such as SO2 and NOX, which are the main air pollutants in China. In this study, a mathematical multi-objective optimization method was adopted to analyze the collaborative emission reduction of three kinds of gases on the basis of their common restraints in different ways of energy consumption to develop an economic, clean, and efficient scheme for energy distribution. The first part introduces the background research, the collaborative emission reduction for three kinds of gases, the multi-objective optimization, the main mathematical modeling, and the optimization method. The second part discusses the four mathematical tools utilized in this study, which include the Granger causality test to analyze the causality between air quality and pollutant emission, a function analysis to determine the quantitative relation between energy consumption and pollutant emission, a multi-objective optimization to set up the collaborative optimization model that considers energy consumption, and an optimality condition analysis for the multi-objective optimization model to design the optimal-pole algorithm and obtain an efficient collaborative reduction scheme. In the empirical analysis, the data of pollutant emission and final consumption of energies of Tianjin in 1996-2012 was employed to verify the effectiveness of the model and analyze the efficient solution and the corresponding dominant set. In the last part, several suggestions for collaborative reduction are recommended and the drawn conclusions are stated.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in a Probabilistic Safety Analysis level-1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nunez Mc Leod, Jorge E.; Rivera, Selva S.
1996-01-01
A methodology for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, applicable to a Probabilistic Safety Assessment Level I has been presented. The work contents are: correct association of distributions to parameters, importance and qualification of expert opinions, generations of samples according to sample sizes, and study of the relationships among system variables and systems response. A series of statistical-mathematical techniques are recommended along the development of the analysis methodology, as well as different graphical visualization for the control of the study. (author)
Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.
1994-01-01
Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shimizu, Yoshiaki
1981-01-01
A mathematical procedure is proposed to make a radioactive waste management plan comprehensively. Since such planning is relevant to some different goals in management, decision making has to be formulated as a multiobjective optimization problem. A mathematical programming method was introduced to make a decision through an interactive manner which enables us to assess the preference of decision maker step by step among the conflicting objectives. The reference system taken as an example is the radioactive waste management system at the Research Reactor Institute of Kyoto University (KUR). Its linear model was built based on the experience in the actual management at KUR. The best-compromise model was then formulated as a multiobjective linear programming by the aid of the computational analysis through a conventional optimization. It was shown from the numerical results that the proposed approach could provide some useful informations to make an actual management plan. (author)
Zhou, Yuan; Shi, Tie-Mao; Hu, Yuan-Man; Gao, Chang; Liu, Miao; Song, Lin-Qi
2011-12-01
Based on geographic information system (GIS) technology and multi-objective location-allocation (LA) model, and in considering of four relatively independent objective factors (population density level, air pollution level, urban heat island effect level, and urban land use pattern), an optimized location selection for the urban parks within the Third Ring of Shenyang was conducted, and the selection results were compared with the spatial distribution of existing parks, aimed to evaluate the rationality of the spatial distribution of urban green spaces. In the location selection of urban green spaces in the study area, the factor air pollution was most important, and, compared with single objective factor, the weighted analysis results of multi-objective factors could provide optimized spatial location selection of new urban green spaces. The combination of GIS technology with LA model would be a new approach for the spatial optimizing of urban green spaces.
Multi-objective optimization of a type of ellipse-parabola shaped superelastic flexure hinge
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Z. Du
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Flexure hinges made of superelastic materials is a promising candidate to enhance the movability of compliant mechanisms. In this paper, we focus on the multi-objective optimization of a type of ellipse-parabola shaped superelastic flexure hinge. The objective is to determine a set of optimal geometric parameters that maximizes the motion range and the relative compliance of the flexure hinge and minimizes the relative rotation error during the deformation as well. Firstly, the paper presents a new type of ellipse-parabola shaped flexure hinge which is constructed by an ellipse arc and a parabola curve. Then, the static responses of superelastic flexure hinges are solved via non-prismatic beam elements derived by the co-rotational approach. Finite element analysis (FEA and experiment tests are performed to verify the modeling method. Finally, a multi-objective optimization is performed and the Pareto frontier is found via the NSGA-II algorithm.
8th International Conference on Multi-Objective and Goal Programming
Tamiz, Mehrdad; Ries, Jana
2010-01-01
This volume shows the state-of-the-art in both theoretical development and application of multiple objective and goal programming. Applications from the fields of supply chain management, financial portfolio selection, financial risk management, insurance, medical imaging, sustainability, nurse scheduling, project management, water resource management, and the interface with data envelopment analysis give a good reflection of current usage. A pleasing variety of techniques are used including models with fuzzy, group-decision, stochastic, interactive, and binary aspects. Additionally, two papers from the upcoming area of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms are included. The book is based on the papers of the 8th International Conference on Multi-Objective and Goal Programming (MOPGP08) which was held in Portsmouth, UK, in September 2008.
Williams, Darius; Marshall, Jennifer L.; Schmidt, Luke M.; Prochaska, Travis; DePoy, Darren L.
2018-01-01
The Giant Magellan Telescope Multi-object Astronomical and Cosmological Spectrograph (GMACS) is currently in development for the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT). GMACS will employ slit masks with a usable diameter of approximately 0.450 m for the purpose of multi-slit spectroscopy. Of significant importance are the design constraints and parameters of the multi-object slit masks themselves as well as the means for mapping astronomical targets to physical mask locations. Analytical methods are utilized to quantify deformation effects on a potential slit mask due to thermal expansion and vignetting of target light cones. Finite element analysis (FEA) is utilized to simulate mask flexure in changing gravity vectors. The alpha version of the mask creation program for GMACS, GMACS Mask Simulator (GMS), a derivative of the OSMOS Mask Simulator (OMS), is introduced.
Pasta, D J; Taylor, J L; Henning, J M
1999-01-01
Decision-analytic models are frequently used to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of alternative therapeutic strategies for health care. Various types of sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the models. Although probabilistic sensitivity analysis is more difficult theoretically and computationally, the results can be much more powerful and useful than deterministic sensitivity analysis. The authors show how a Monte Carlo simulation can be implemented using standard software to perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap. The method is applied to a decision-analytic model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication. The necessary steps are straightforward and are described in detail. The use of the bootstrap avoids certain difficulties encountered with theoretical distributions. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided insights into the decision-analytic model beyond the traditional base-case and deterministic sensitivity analyses and should become the standard method for assessing sensitivity.
Sorption of redox-sensitive elements: critical analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strickert, R.G.
1980-12-01
The redox-sensitive elements (Tc, U, Np, Pu) discussed in this report are of interest to nuclear waste management due to their long-lived isotopes which have a potential radiotoxic effect on man. In their lower oxidation states these elements have been shown to be highly adsorbed by geologic materials occurring under reducing conditions. Experimental research conducted in recent years, especially through the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP) and Waste/Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) program, has provided extensive information on the mechanisms of retardation. In general, ion-exchange probably plays a minor role in the sorption behavior of cations of the above three actinide elements. Formation of anionic complexes of the oxidized states with common ligands (OH - , CO -- 3 ) is expected to reduce adsorption by ion exchange further. Pertechnetate also exhibits little ion-exchange sorption by geologic media. In the reduced (IV) state, all of the elements are highly charged and it appears that they form a very insoluble compound (oxide, hydroxide, etc.) or undergo coprecipitation or are incorporated into minerals. The exact nature of the insoluble compounds and the effect of temperature, pH, pe, other chemical species, and other parameters are currently being investigated. Oxidation states other than Tc (IV,VII), U(IV,VI), Np(IV,V), and Pu(IV,V) are probably not important for the geologic repository environment expected, but should be considered especially when extreme conditions exist (radiation, temperature, etc.). Various experimental techniques such as oxidation-state analysis of tracer-level isotopes, redox potential measurement and control, pH measurement, and solid phase identification have been used to categorize the behavior of the various valence states
Sorption of redox-sensitive elements: critical analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Strickert, R.G.
1980-12-01
The redox-sensitive elements (Tc, U, Np, Pu) discussed in this report are of interest to nuclear waste management due to their long-lived isotopes which have a potential radiotoxic effect on man. In their lower oxidation states these elements have been shown to be highly adsorbed by geologic materials occurring under reducing conditions. Experimental research conducted in recent years, especially through the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP) and Waste/Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) program, has provided extensive information on the mechanisms of retardation. In general, ion-exchange probably plays a minor role in the sorption behavior of cations of the above three actinide elements. Formation of anionic complexes of the oxidized states with common ligands (OH/sup -/, CO/sup - -//sub 3/) is expected to reduce adsorption by ion exchange further. Pertechnetate also exhibits little ion-exchange sorption by geologic media. In the reduced (IV) state, all of the elements are highly charged and it appears that they form a very insoluble compound (oxide, hydroxide, etc.) or undergo coprecipitation or are incorporated into minerals. The exact nature of the insoluble compounds and the effect of temperature, pH, pe, other chemical species, and other parameters are currently being investigated. Oxidation states other than Tc (IV,VII), U(IV,VI), Np(IV,V), and Pu(IV,V) are probably not important for the geologic repository environment expected, but should be considered especially when extreme conditions exist (radiation, temperature, etc.). Various experimental techniques such as oxidation-state analysis of tracer-level isotopes, redox potential measurement and control, pH measurement, and solid phase identification have been used to categorize the behavior of the various valence states.
Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. P. Parhomenko
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters
Reynoso Meza, Gilberto; Sanchis Saez, Javier; Herrero Durá, Juan Manuel
2017-01-01
This book is devoted to Multiobjective Optimization Design (MOOD) procedures for controller tuning applications, by means of Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization (EMO). It presents developments in tools, procedures and guidelines to facilitate this process, covering the three fundamental steps in the procedure: problem definition, optimization and decision-making. The book is divided into four parts. The first part, Fundamentals, focuses on the necessary theoretical background and provides specific tools for practitioners. The second part, Basics, examines a range of basic examples regarding the MOOD procedure for controller tuning, while the third part, Benchmarking, demonstrates how the MOOD procedure can be employed in several control engineering problems. The fourth part, Applications, is dedicated to implementing the MOOD procedure for controller tuning in real processes.
A multi-objective approach for developing national energy efficiency plans
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haydt, Gustavo; Leal, Vítor; Dias, Luís
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a new approach to deal with the problem of building national energy efficiency (EE) plans, considering multiple objectives instead of only energy savings. The objectives considered are minimizing the influence of energy use on climate change, minimizing the financial risk from the investment, maximizing the security of energy supply, minimizing investment costs, minimizing the impacts of building new power plants and transmission infrastructures, and maximizing the local air quality. These were identified through literature review and interaction with real decision makers. A database of measures is established, from which millions of potential EE plans can be built by combining measures and their respective degree of implementation. Finally, a hybrid multi-objective and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model is proposed to search and select the EE plans that best match the decision makers’ preferences. An illustration of the working mode and the type of results obtained from this novel hybrid model is provided through an application to Portugal. For each of five decision perspectives a wide range of potential best plans were identified. These wide ranges show the relevance of introducing multi-objective analysis in a comprehensive search space as a tool to inform decisions about national EE plans. - Highlights: • A multiple objective approach to aid the choice of national energy efficiency plans. • A hybrid multi-objective MCDA model is proposed to search among the possible plans. • The model identified relevant plans according to five different idealized DMs. • The approach is tested with Portugal
A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.
Budinich, Marko; Bourdon, Jérémie; Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Eveillard, Damien
2017-01-01
Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs) for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA) and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA). Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity) that take place at the ecosystem scale.
A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marko Budinich
Full Text Available Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA. Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity that take place at the ecosystem scale.
Sensitivity analysis of hybrid power systems using Power Pinch Analysis considering Feed-in Tariff
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mohammad Rozali, Nor Erniza; Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah; Manan, Zainuddin Abdul; Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír
2016-01-01
Feed-in Tariff (FiT) has been one of the most effective policies in accelerating the development of renewable energy (RE) projects. The amount of RE electricity in the FiT purchase agreement is an important decision that has to be made by the RE project developers. They have to consider various crucial factors associated with RE system operation as well as its stochastic nature. The presented work aims to assess the sensitivity and profitability of a hybrid power system (HPS) in cases of RE system failure or shutdown. The amount of RE electricity for the FiT purchase agreement in various scenarios was determined using a novel tool called On-Grid Problem Table based on the Power Pinch Analysis (PoPA). A sensitivity table has also been introduced to assist planners to evaluate the effects of the RE system's failure on the profitability of the HPS. This table offers insights on the variance of the RE electricity. The sensitivity analysis of various possible scenarios shows that the RE projects can still provide financial benefits via the FiT, despite the losses incurred from the penalty levied. - Highlights: • A Power Pinch Analysis (PoPA) tool to assess the economics of an HPS with FiT. • The new On-Grid Problem Table for targeting the available RE electricity for FiT sale. • A sensitivity table showing the effect of RE electricity changes on the HPS profitability.
Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks
Navarro, Marí a; Le Maitre, Olivier; Knio, Omar
2016-01-01
sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity
Spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis of vertical transport of pesticides in soil
Environmental fate and transport processes are influenced by many factors. Simulation models that mimic these processes often have complex implementations, which can lead to over-parameterization. Sensitivity analyses are subsequently used to identify critical parameters whose un...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaozhang Qu
2016-07-01
Full Text Available A kind of modified epoxy resin sheet molding compounds of the impeller has been designed. Through the test, the non-metal impeller has a better environmental aging performance, but must do the waterproof processing design. In order to improve the stability of the impeller vibration design, the influence of uncertainty factors is considered, and a multi-objective robust optimization method is proposed to reduce the weight of the impeller. Firstly, based on the fluid-structure interaction，the analysis model of the impeller vibration is constructed. Secondly, the optimal approximate model of the impeller is constructed by using the Latin hypercube and radial basis function, and the fitting and optimization accuracy of the approximate model is improved by increasing the sample points. Finally, the micro multi-objective genetic algorithm is applied to the robust optimization of approximate model, and the Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol sampling techniques are used for reliability analysis. By comparing the results of the deterministic, different sigma levels and different materials, the multi-objective optimization of the SMC molding impeller can meet the requirements of engineering stability and lightweight. And the effectiveness of the proposed multi-objective robust optimization method is verified by the error analysis. After the SMC molding and the robust optimization of the impeller, the optimized rate reached 42.5%, which greatly improved the economic benefit, and greatly reduce the vibration of the ventilation system.
SBML-SAT: a systems biology markup language (SBML) based sensitivity analysis tool.
Zi, Zhike; Zheng, Yanan; Rundell, Ann E; Klipp, Edda
2008-08-15
It has long been recognized that sensitivity analysis plays a key role in modeling and analyzing cellular and biochemical processes. Systems biology markup language (SBML) has become a well-known platform for coding and sharing mathematical models of such processes. However, current SBML compatible software tools are limited in their ability to perform global sensitivity analyses of these models. This work introduces a freely downloadable, software package, SBML-SAT, which implements algorithms for simulation, steady state analysis, robustness analysis and local and global sensitivity analysis for SBML models. This software tool extends current capabilities through its execution of global sensitivity analyses using multi-parametric sensitivity analysis, partial rank correlation coefficient, SOBOL's method, and weighted average of local sensitivity analyses in addition to its ability to handle systems with discontinuous events and intuitive graphical user interface. SBML-SAT provides the community of systems biologists a new tool for the analysis of their SBML models of biochemical and cellular processes.
Linear Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the Constraint Coefficient Matrix in Linear Programs
R.A. Zuidwijk (Rob)
2005-01-01
textabstractSensitivity analysis is used to quantify the impact of changes in the initial data of linear programs on the optimal value. In particular, parametric sensitivity analysis involves a perturbation analysis in which the effects of small changes of some or all of the initial data on an
Sensitivity analysis of dynamic characteristic of the fixture based on design variables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Dongsheng; Nong Shaoning; Zhang Sijian; Ren Wanfa
2002-01-01
The research on the sensitivity analysis is dealt with of structural natural frequencies to structural design parameters. A typical fixture for vibration test is designed. Using I-DEAS Finite Element programs, the sensitivity of its natural frequency to design parameters is analyzed by Matrix Perturbation Method. The research result shows that the sensitivity analysis is a fast and effective dynamic re-analysis method to dynamic design and parameters modification of complex structures such as fixtures
Depletion GPT-free sensitivity analysis for reactor eigenvalue problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kennedy, C.; Abdel-Khalik, H.
2013-01-01
This manuscript introduces a novel approach to solving depletion perturbation theory problems without the need to set up or solve the generalized perturbation theory (GPT) equations. The approach, hereinafter denoted generalized perturbation theory free (GPT-Free), constructs a reduced order model (ROM) using methods based in perturbation theory and computes response sensitivity profiles in a manner that is independent of the number or type of responses, allowing for an efficient computation of sensitivities when many responses are required. Moreover, the reduction error from using the ROM is quantified in the GPT-Free approach by means of a Wilks' order statistics error metric denoted the K-metric. Traditional GPT has been recognized as the most computationally efficient approach for performing sensitivity analyses of models with many input parameters, e.g. when forward sensitivity analyses are computationally intractable. However, most neutronics codes that can solve the fundamental (homogenous) adjoint eigenvalue problem do not have GPT capabilities unless envisioned during code development. The GPT-Free approach addresses this limitation by requiring only the ability to compute the fundamental adjoint. This manuscript demonstrates the GPT-Free approach for depletion reactor calculations performed in SCALE6 using the 7x7 UAM assembly model. A ROM is developed for the assembly over a time horizon of 990 days. The approach both calculates the reduction error over the lifetime of the simulation using the K-metric and benchmarks the obtained sensitivities using sample calculations. (authors)
Global sensitivity analysis using sparse grid interpolation and polynomial chaos
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buzzard, Gregery T.
2012-01-01
Sparse grid interpolation is widely used to provide good approximations to smooth functions in high dimensions based on relatively few function evaluations. By using an efficient conversion from the interpolating polynomial provided by evaluations on a sparse grid to a representation in terms of orthogonal polynomials (gPC representation), we show how to use these relatively few function evaluations to estimate several types of sensitivity coefficients and to provide estimates on local minima and maxima. First, we provide a good estimate of the variance-based sensitivity coefficients of Sobol' (1990) [1] and then use the gradient of the gPC representation to give good approximations to the derivative-based sensitivity coefficients described by Kucherenko and Sobol' (2009) [2]. Finally, we use the package HOM4PS-2.0 given in Lee et al. (2008) [3] to determine the critical points of the interpolating polynomial and use these to determine the local minima and maxima of this polynomial. - Highlights: ► Efficient estimation of variance-based sensitivity coefficients. ► Efficient estimation of derivative-based sensitivity coefficients. ► Use of homotopy methods for approximation of local maxima and minima.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Nicola, Giancarlo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge Fondation EDF, Ecole Centrale Paris and Supelec, Paris (France); Yu, Yu [School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, 102206 Beijing (China)
2015-08-15
Highlights: • Uncertainties of TH codes affect the system failure probability quantification. • We present Finite Mixture Models (FMMs) for sensitivity analysis of TH codes. • FMMs approximate the pdf of the output of a TH code with a limited number of simulations. • The approach is tested on a Passive Containment Cooling System of an AP1000 reactor. • The novel approach overcomes the results of a standard variance decomposition method. - Abstract: For safety analysis of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), Best Estimate (BE) Thermal Hydraulic (TH) codes are used to predict system response in normal and accidental conditions. The assessment of the uncertainties of TH codes is a critical issue for system failure probability quantification. In this paper, we consider passive safety systems of advanced NPPs and present a novel approach of Sensitivity Analysis (SA). The approach is based on Finite Mixture Models (FMMs) to approximate the probability density function (i.e., the uncertainty) of the output of the passive safety system TH code with a limited number of simulations. We propose a novel Sensitivity Analysis (SA) method for keeping the computational cost low: an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to calculate the saliency of the TH code input variables for identifying those that most affect the system functional failure. The novel approach is compared with a standard variance decomposition method on a case study considering a Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of an Advanced Pressurized reactor AP1000.
A hybrid multi-objective evolutionary algorithm approach for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
V K MANUPATI
for handling sequence- and machine-dependent set-up times ... algorithm has been compared to that of multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) and conventional ..... position and cognitive learning factor are considered for.
A Multiobjective Sparse Feature Learning Model for Deep Neural Networks.
Gong, Maoguo; Liu, Jia; Li, Hao; Cai, Qing; Su, Linzhi
2015-12-01
Hierarchical deep neural networks are currently popular learning models for imitating the hierarchical architecture of human brain. Single-layer feature extractors are the bricks to build deep networks. Sparse feature learning models are popular models that can learn useful representations. But most of those models need a user-defined constant to control the sparsity of representations. In this paper, we propose a multiobjective sparse feature learning model based on the autoencoder. The parameters of the model are learnt by optimizing two objectives, reconstruction error and the sparsity of hidden units simultaneously to find a reasonable compromise between them automatically. We design a multiobjective induced learning procedure for this model based on a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. In the experiments, we demonstrate that the learning procedure is effective, and the proposed multiobjective model can learn useful sparse features.
Multi-objective optimization of inverse planning for accurate radiotherapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cao Ruifen; Pei Xi; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Hu Liqin; Wu Yican; Jing Jia; Li Guoli
2011-01-01
The multi-objective optimization of inverse planning based on the Pareto solution set, according to the multi-objective character of inverse planning in accurate radiotherapy, was studied in this paper. Firstly, the clinical requirements of a treatment plan were transformed into a multi-objective optimization problem with multiple constraints. Then, the fast and elitist multi-objective Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) was introduced to optimize the problem. A clinical example was tested using this method. The results show that an obtained set of non-dominated solutions were uniformly distributed and the corresponding dose distribution of each solution not only approached the expected dose distribution, but also met the dose-volume constraints. It was indicated that the clinical requirements were better satisfied using the method and the planner could select the optimal treatment plan from the non-dominated solution set. (authors)
New approach for solving intuitionistic fuzzy multi-objective ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
SANKAR KUMAR ROY
2018-02-07
Feb 7, 2018 ... Transportation problem; multi-objective decision making; intuitionistic fuzzy programming; interval programming ... MOTP under multi-choice environment using utility func- ... theory is an intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS), which was.
Issues with performance measures for dynamic multi-objective optimisation
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Helbig, M
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Symposium on Computational Intelligence in Dynamic and Uncertain Environments (CIDUE), Mexico, 20-23 June 2013 Issues with Performance Measures for Dynamic Multi-objective Optimisation Mard´e Helbig CSIR: Meraka Institute Brummeria, South Africa...
Scalable and practical multi-objective distribution network expansion planning
Luong, N.H.; Grond, M.O.W.; Poutré, La J.A.; Bosman, P.A.N.
2015-01-01
We formulate the distribution network expansion planning (DNEP) problem as a multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem with different objectives that distribution network operators (DNOs) would typically like to consider during decision making processes for expanding their networks. Objectives are
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of the thermomechanical behavior of repositories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wilson, J.L.; Thompson, B.M.
1984-01-01
The adjoint sensitivity method is applied to thermomechanical models for the first time. The method provides an efficient and inexpensive answer to the question: how sensitive are thermomechanical predictions to assumed parameters. The answer is exact, in the sense that it yields exact derivatives of response measures to parameters, and approximate, in the sense that projections of the response fo other parameter assumptions are only first order correct. The method is applied to linear finite element models of thermomechanical behavior. Extensions to more complicated models are straight-forward but often laborious. An illustration of the method with a two-dimensional repository corridor model reveals that the chosen stress response measure was most sensitive to Poisson's ratio for the rock matrix
Multi-objective optimization of the reactor coolant system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen Lei; Yan Changqi; Wang Jianjun
2014-01-01
Background: Weight and size are important criteria in evaluating the performance of a nuclear power plant. It is of great theoretical value and engineering significance to reduce the weight and volume of the components for a nuclear power plant by the optimization methodology. Purpose: In order to provide a new method for the optimization of nuclear power plant multi-objective, the concept of the non-dominated solution was introduced. Methods: Based on the parameters of Qinshan I nuclear power plant, the mathematical models of the reactor core, the reactor vessel, the main pipe, the pressurizer and the steam generator were built and verified. The sensitivity analyses were carried out to study the influences of the design variables on the objectives. A modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm was proposed and employed to optimize the weight and the volume of the reactor coolant system. Results: The results show that the component mathematical models are reliable, the modified non-dominated sorting generic algorithm is effective, and the reactor inlet temperature is the most important variable which influences the distribution of the non-dominated solutions. Conclusion: The optimization results could provide a reference to the design of such reactor coolant system. (authors)
Procedural Optimization Models for Multiobjective Flexible JSSP
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elena Simona NICOARA
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The most challenging issues related to manufacturing efficiency occur if the jobs to be sched-uled are structurally different, if these jobs allow flexible routings on the equipments and mul-tiple objectives are required. This framework, called Multi-objective Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problems (MOFJSSP, applicable to many real processes, has been less reported in the literature than the JSSP framework, which has been extensively formalized, modeled and analyzed from many perspectives. The MOFJSSP lie, as many other NP-hard problems, in a tedious place where the vast optimization theory meets the real world context. The paper brings to discussion the most optimization models suited to MOFJSSP and analyzes in detail the genetic algorithms and agent-based models as the most appropriate procedural models.
Multiobjective Optimization for Fixture Locating Layout of Sheet Metal Part Using SVR and NSGA-II
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuan Yang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Fixture plays a significant role in determining the sheet metal part (SMP spatial position and restraining its excessive deformation in many manufacturing operations. However, it is still a difficult task to design and optimize SMP fixture locating layout at present because there exist multiple conflicting objectives and excessive computational cost of finite element analysis (FEA during the optimization process. To this end, a new multiobjective optimization method for SMP fixture locating layout is proposed in this paper based on the support vector regression (SVR surrogate model and the elitist nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II. By using ABAQUS™ Python script interface, a parametric FEA model is established. And the fixture locating layout is treated as design variables, while the overall deformation and maximum deformation of SMP under external forces are as the multiple objective functions. First, a limited number of training and testing samples are generated by combining Latin hypercube design (LHD with FEA. Second, two SVR prediction models corresponding to the multiple objectives are established by learning from the limited training samples and are integrated as the multiobjective optimization surrogate model. Third, NSGA-II is applied to determine the Pareto optimal solutions of SMP fixture locating layout. Finally, a multiobjective optimization for fixture locating layout of an aircraft fuselage skin case is conducted to illustrate and verify the proposed method.
Enhanced Multi-Objective Energy Optimization by a Signaling Method
Soares, João; Borges, Nuno; Vale, Zita; Oliveira, P.B.
2016-01-01
In this paper three metaheuristics are used to solve a smart grid multi-objective energy management problem with conflictive design: how to maximize profits and minimize carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the results compared. The metaheuristics implemented are: weighted particle swarm optimization (W-PSO), multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II). The performance of these methods with the use of multi-dimensi...
Hattori, Satoshi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua
2018-02-10
Publication bias is one of the most important issues in meta-analysis. For standard meta-analyses to examine intervention effects, the funnel plot and the trim-and-fill method are simple and widely used techniques for assessing and adjusting for the influence of publication bias, respectively. However, their use may be subjective and can then produce misleading insights. To make a more objective inference for publication bias, various sensitivity analysis methods have been proposed, including the Copas selection model. For meta-analysis of diagnostic studies evaluating a continuous biomarker, the summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve is a very useful method in the presence of heterogeneous cutoff values. To our best knowledge, no methods are available for evaluation of influence of publication bias on estimation of the sROC curve. In this paper, we introduce a Copas-type selection model for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies and propose a sensitivity analysis method for publication bias. Our method enables us to assess the influence of publication bias on the estimation of the sROC curve and then judge whether the result of the meta-analysis is sufficiently confident or should be interpreted with much caution. We illustrate our proposed method with real data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Time course analysis of baroreflex sensitivity during postural stress
Westerhof, Berend E.; Gisolf, Janneke; Karemaker, John M.; Wesseling, Karel H.; Secher, Niels H.; van Lieshout, Johannes J.
2006-01-01
Postural stress requires immediate autonomic nervous action to maintain blood pressure. We determined time-domain cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) and time delay (tau) between systolic blood pressure and interbeat interval variations during stepwise changes in the angle of vertical body axis
Comparative Analysis of Intercultural Sensitivity among Teachers Working with Refugees
Strekalova-Hughes, Ekaterina
2017-01-01
The unprecedented global refugee crisis and the accompanying political discourse places added pressures on teachers working with children who are refugees in resettling countries. Given the increased chances of having a refugee child in one's classroom, it is critical to explore how interculturally sensitive teachers are and if working with…
Fecal bacteria source characterization and sensitivity analysis of SWAT 2005
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2005 includes a microbial sub-model to simulate fecal bacteria transport at the watershed scale. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to characterize fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) source loads and to assess the model sensitivity t...